聯合包裹運送服務公司 (UPS) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Stephen, and I will be your facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the UPS Investor Relations' second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. PJ Guido, Investor Relations Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

早安.我叫史蒂芬，今天我將擔任你們的協調員。我謹歡迎大家參加 UPS 投資者關係 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明） 現在我很高興將發言權交給東道主投資者關係官 PJ Guido 先生。先生，地板是你的了。

Good morning, and welcome to the UPS second-quarter 2024 earnings call. Joining me today are Carol Tome, our CEO; Brian Dykes, our new CFO; and a few additional members of our executive leadership team.

早上好，歡迎參加 UPS 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的執行長 Carol Tome； Brian Dykes，我們的新任財務長；以及我們執行領導團隊的一些其他成員。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that some of the comments we'll make today are forward-looking statements within the federal securities laws and address our expectations for the future performance or operating results of our company. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are described in our 2023 Form 10-K and other reports we filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports, when filed, are available on the UPS Investor Relations website and from the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，我們今天發表的一些評論是聯邦證券法範圍內的前瞻性陳述，涉及我們對公司未來業績或經營業績的預期。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交或提供的 2023 年 10-K 表格和其他報告中進行了描述。這些報告提交後可在 UPS 投資者關係網站和 SEC 上取得。

Unless stated otherwise, our discussion today refers to adjusted results. For the second quarter, GAAP results include an after-tax charge of $120 million or $0.14 per diluted share, comprised of a onetime payment of $94 million to settle an international regulatory matter, and transformation and other charges of $26 million. A reconciliation to GAAP financial results is available on the UPS Investor Relations website and also available in the webcast of today's call.

除非另有說明，我們今天討論的是調整後的結果。第二季的 GAAP 業績包括 1.2 億美元的稅後費用，即稀釋後每股 0.14 美元，其中包括用於解決國際監管問題的一次性付款 9,400 萬美元，以及 2,600 萬美元的轉型和其他費用。 UPS 投資者關係網站上提供了 GAAP 財務業績的調節表，也可在今天電話會議的網路廣播中查看。

Following our prepared remarks, we will take questions from those joining us via the teleconference. (Operator Instructions) And now I'll turn the call over to Carol.

在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將透過電話會議回答與會人員的問題。 （操作員說明）現在我將把電話轉給卡羅爾。

Thank you, PJ, and good morning. Let me begin by welcoming Brian Dykes as UPS's new Chief Financial Officer. With over 25 years of multinational experience with the company, Brian brings deep financial and strategic experience to our executive leadership team. Welcome, Brian.

謝謝你，PJ，早安。首先我要歡迎 Brian Dykes 擔任 UPS 新任財務長。 Brian 擁有超過 25 年的跨國公司工作經驗，為我們的執行領導團隊帶來了深厚的財務和策略經驗。歡迎，布萊恩。

Our second quarter performance was a significant turning point for our company as we return to volume growth in the United States, the first time in nine quarters. I would like to recognize and thank UPSers for their hard work and efforts in delivering these results. At the beginning of the year, we shared our outlook for 2024 based on four key planning assumptions. The first planning assumption acknowledged the front-loading of costs associated with our new labor contracts, which we believed would cause our financial performance to reflect a bathtub effect with first half 2024 earnings down as much as 30% and second half earnings returning to growth. In the first half of the year, our earnings were in line with the down 30% scenario.

我們第二季的業績對我們公司來說是一個重要的轉捩點，因為我們在美國的銷售恢復了成長，這是九個季度以來的首次。我要感謝 UPS 員工為實現這些成果所做的辛勤工作和努力。今年年初，我們根據四個關鍵規劃假設分享了 2024 年的展望。第一個規劃假設承認與我們的新勞動合約相關的前期成本，我們認為這將導致我們的財務表現反映出浴缸效應，2024 年上半年收益下降高達 30%，下半年收益恢復成長。上半年，我們的獲利符合下降30%的情境。

The second assumption was that we would return to volume growth, which we did in the US during the month of May. Further, while international volume growth in the second quarter was down 2.9% year-over-year, we saw growth in certain markets. The third planning assumption was based on our fit to serve initiative to rightsize our management structure, and we are on track with this initiative to deliver roughly $1 billion in savings by the end of the year. Finally, we said we would explore strategic alternatives for Coyote, and we did, leading to a pending sale to RXO at considerably more than our carrying value.

第二個假設是我們將恢復銷售成長，就像我們五月在美國所做的那樣。此外，雖然第二季的國際銷量成長較去年同期下降 2.9%，但我們看到某些市場的成長。第三個規劃假設是基於我們的「適合服務」計劃，以調整我們的管理結構，我們正在按照這項計劃，到年底實現約 10 億美元的節省。最後，我們表示將探索 Coyote 的策略替代方案，我們確實這麼做了，導致以遠高於我們帳面價值的價格出售給 RXO。

So the key assumptions we use to build our plan are holding with one distinction, and that's US volume mix both in terms of product and customer segmentation. During the quarter, we experienced a shift toward value products, with shippers choosing ground over air and SurePost over ground. And there was also a notable shift in product characteristics with a surge in lightweight short selling volume moving into our network. We will discuss the full year impact of these shifts in a few moments.

因此，我們用於制定計劃的關鍵假設有一個區別，那就是美國在產品和客戶細分方面的銷售組合。本季度，我們經歷了向價值產品的轉變，托運人選擇陸運而不是空運，選擇 SurePost 而不是陸運。隨著進入我們網路的輕量級賣空量激增，產品特徵也發生了顯著變化。我們稍後將討論這些變化對全年的影響。

But let me first highlight our second quarter results and then provide a few updates on our longer-term strategy. In the second quarter, consolidated revenue was $21.8 billion, a decline of 1.1% versus last year. Consolidated operating profit was $2.1 billion, down 29.3%, and consolidated operating margin was 9.5%. At our March Investor Day, we set forth our declarations to become the premium small package provider, the premium logistics orchestrator and the number one complex healthcare logistics provider in the world.

但讓我先強調一下我們第二季的業績，然後提供有關我們長期策略的一些最新資訊。第二季綜合營收為218億美元，比去年下降1.1%。綜合營業利益為 21 億美元，下降 29.3%，綜合營業利益率為 9.5%。在三月的投資者日，我們宣布成為全球優質小包裝提供者、優質物流協調者和第一大綜合醫療物流提供者。

To that end, we said we would pursue certain inorganic opportunities, and we have. As you've seen, we've just announced our plans to acquire Estafeta, a leading domestic small package provider in Mexico. This is a big win for UPS and is a big win for our customers. By combining Estafeta with the end-to-end services we already have in Mexico and connecting it to the global reach of our integrated network, we will greatly enhance our logistics orchestration capabilities for customers that are shifting manufacturing and distribution closer to the United States. We are targeting to close this acquisition by the end of this year.

為此，我們說過我們將尋求某些無機機會，而我們確實做到了。正如您所看到的，我們剛剛宣布計劃收購 Estafeta，一家墨西哥國內領先的小包裝供應商。這對 UPS 來說是一個巨大的勝利，對我們的客戶來說也是一個巨大的勝利。透過將Estafeta 與我們在墨西哥已有的端到端服務結合，並將其連接到我們綜合網路的全球影響力，我們將大大增強我們的物流編排能力，幫助那些將製造和分銷轉移到更靠近美國的客戶。我們的目標是在今年年底前完成此次收購。

Let me share a few other strategic updates, starting with customer first. In healthcare, we just opened our first dedicated healthcare facility in Dublin, Ireland. This 82,000 square foot facility provides storage and fulfillment for a range of complex pharmaceutical and healthcare products. And in the Netherlands, we increased the size of our flagship facility in Roermond to now more than 235,000 square feet, including expanded ultra-cold storage capabilities to support the growing market of complex biopharma products.

讓我分享一些其他的策略更新，從客戶至上開始。在醫療保健方面，我們剛剛在愛爾蘭都柏林開設了第一家專門的醫療保健機構。這個佔地 82,000 平方英尺的設施為一系列複雜的藥品和保健產品提供儲存和履行服務。在荷蘭，我們將位於魯爾蒙德的旗艦工廠的規模擴大到目前超過 235,000 平方英尺，包括擴大的超冷儲存能力，以支援不斷增長的複雜生物製藥產品市場。

Looking at SMBs, we continue to add partners to our digital access program or DAP, meeting small businesses where they are. In the first six months of this year, DAP generated $1.5 billion in revenue, and we are well on our way to achieving our 2024 DAP revenue target of over $3 billion. And because speed will always be important to our customers, in the US, we expanded our weekend service offering to six additional markets. With this service, we provide deliveries one day earlier than competitors who don't offer weekend pickup services. In fact, we are the only private US-based carrier that provides both commercial and residential pickup and delivery services on Saturday as a general service offering.

對於中小型企業，我們繼續將合作夥伴添加到我們的數位存取計畫或 DAP 中，滿足小型企業的需求。今年前六個月，DAP 創造了 15 億美元的收入，我們正在順利實現 2024 年 DAP 收入超過 30 億美元的目標。由於速度對我們的客戶始終很重要，因此在美國，我們將週末服務範圍擴大到了另外六個市場。透過這項服務，我們比不提供週末取貨服務的競爭對手提前一天送貨。事實上，我們是唯一一家在周六提供商業和住宅取貨和送貨服務的美國私人承運商，作為一般服務。

Outside of the US, we are continuing to enhance our portfolio to support our customers as they balance the need for speed with cost. For example, in record time, we launched enhancements to our worldwide economy service globally. This is an e-commerce solution for non-urgent cross-border shipments. Here, we created a true door-to-door service with customs clearance and delivery fees baked into the solution, making the experience simpler for the shipper and the receiver.

在美國以外，我們正在繼續增強我們的產品組合，以支援我們的客戶平衡速度與成本的需求。例如，我們在創紀錄的時間內在全球推出了全球經濟服務的增強功能。這是針對非緊急跨境運輸的電子商務解決方案。在這裡，我們創建了真正的門到門服務，將清關和送貨費用納入解決方案，使托運人和收件人的體驗更加簡單。

In Asia, over the last several quarters, we've made a series of network enhancements, with the latest being in Taiwan. Because Europe is a top three export destination for Taiwan, we've expanded our capacity by 30% and extended pickups to as late as midnight. These enhancements enable our customers including high-tech manufacturing and automotive shippers to better serve their European customers by reaching their destination in just two business days.

在亞洲，過去幾個季度，我們進行了一系列網路增強，最新的是台灣。由於歐洲是台灣的三大出口目的地，因此我們將運力擴大了 30%，並將取貨時間延長至午夜。這些增強功能使我們的客戶（包括高科技製造業和汽車托運商）能夠在短短兩個工作天內到達目的地，從而更好地服務歐洲客戶。

And in supply chain solutions, we've expanded our supply chain operations at our Frankfurt Airport gateway by adding nearly 25% more warehouse space. This facility is a major SCS hub for Central Europe, where it connects all transportation roads. In this expansion, we can now provide even greater flexibility to the region's growing technology and healthcare industry.

在供應鏈解決方案方面，我們擴大了法蘭克福機場門戶的供應鏈運營，增加了近 25% 的倉庫空間。該設施是中歐的主要南海樞紐，連接所有運輸道路。透過這次擴張，我們現在可以為該地區不斷發展的技術和醫療保健產業提供更大的靈活性。

And importantly, also in SCS, we are onboarding the new USPS air cargo business, with plans to be fully implemented before peak. The onboarding has gone well, and we continue to expect this business to be margin accretive for the company.

重要的是，同樣在南海，我們正在啟動新的 USPS 航空貨運業務，並計劃在高峰之前全面實施。入職進展順利，我們繼續預期這項業務將為公司帶來利潤成長。

Now let's turn to innovation driven and progress with network of the future. In the first half of 2024, we completed 35 operational closures, which included closing five buildings. And we are on plan to complete an additional five operational closures in the second half of this year. Simultaneously, we are continuing to automate more of our operational tasks. For example, in the US we are automating the dispatch process for our packaged car and theater drivers to reduce dispatch staffing by half. We deployed Phase 1 of the project. And so far, this year, we reduced staffing by 26%. As we continue deployment, we expect to achieve our reduction target by 2022. As a reminder, these actions are outside of fit to serve and are part of network of the future.

現在讓我們轉向創新驅動和未來網路的進步。 2024 年上半年，我們完成了 35 處業務關閉，其中包括關閉 5 棟建築。我們計劃在今年下半年完成另外五個業務關閉。同時，我們正在繼續實現更多營運任務的自動化。例如，在美國，我們正在將打包汽車和劇院司機的調度流程自動化，以將調度人員減少一半。我們部署了該專案的第一階段。今年到目前為止，我們的員工人數減少了 26%。隨著我們繼續部署，我們預計在 2022 年實現減排目標。

Lastly, touching on Smart Package Smart Facility, which is our RFID solution. We are moving from a scanning network to a sensing network. As we've discussed, we're adding RFID readers to our packaged cars. But we're not stopping there. We're moving upstream. First, we are enabling customers to print RFID labels themselves. Second, we are installing readers at customer dock door. This will enable immediate visibility as our trailers are loaded for pickup. This solution provides a significant competitive advantage to us and to our customer.

最後，談談智慧包裹智慧設施，這是我們的 RFID 解決方案。我們正在從掃描網路轉向感測網路。正如我們所討論的，我們正在將 RFID 讀取器添加到我們的包裝汽車中。但我們不會就此止步。我們正在向上游移動。首先，我們讓客戶能夠自行列印 RFID 標籤。其次，我們在客戶碼頭門口安裝讀卡機。當我們的拖車裝載等待取貨時，這將使我們能夠立即看到。該解決方案為我們和我們的客戶提供了顯著的競爭優勢。

Moving to our financial outlook. Brian will provide more details but let me share a few highlights. First, while we have entered into an agreement to sell our Coyote business, we are retaining Coyote revenue and earnings in our outlook until the transaction is consummated. Second, while our first half earnings were in line with the low end of the guidance we provided, our revenue came in just short of the low end. Given the current volume momentum we are now experiencing in our business, we are resetting our revenue guidance, taking us to the midpoint of our original revenue guide. But for operating profit, as we look to the back half of the year, in the US, we expect the same volume mix characteristics as we had in the first half of the year, which compresses revenue per piece growth.

轉向我們的財務前景。布萊恩將提供更多細節，但讓我分享一些亮點。首先，雖然我們已經簽訂了出售 Coyote 業務的協議，但我們仍將 Coyote 的收入和收益保留在我們的展望中，直到交易完成。其次，雖然我們上半年的利潤符合我們提供的指導的低端，但我們的收入僅略低於低端。鑑於我們目前業務中所經歷的銷售成長勢頭，我們正在重置我們的收入指導，使我們達到原始收入指導的中點。但就營業利潤而言，當我們展望今年下半年時，我們預計美國的銷售組合特徵將與上半年相同，這將壓縮每件收入的成長。

While we still expect an operating profit back up effect with solid earnings growth in the back half of the year, the growth rate will not be as high as we projected at the beginning of the year. Accordingly, we are adjusting our full year operating margin guidance to reflect the nature of the volume flowing through our US network. As a result, we now expect consolidated revenue of approximately $93 billion and a consolidated operating margin of approximately 9.4%. Importantly, we expect to exit the final month of 2024 with a US operating margin of 10%, which creates a solid footing as we drive the US business to a longer-term operating margin target of 12%.

雖然我們仍預期下半年營業利潤將出現回升效應，獲利將穩健成長，但成長率不會像年初預計的那麼高。因此，我們正在調整全年營業利潤率指導，以反映流經我們美國網路的流量的性質。因此，我們現在預計綜合收入約為 930 億美元，綜合營業利潤率約為 9.4%。重要的是，我們預計 2024 年最後一個月的美國營業利潤率為 10%，這為我們推動美國業務實現 12% 的長期營業利潤率目標奠定了堅實的基礎。

One last comment before I hand the call over to Brian. We believe it is important to have a disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation, with the first uses of capital going back to the business and to pay our dividend and then any excess cash being used for share repurchases. As we have fine-tuned our capital requirements for network of the future, we expect to spend less than we originally anticipated. Further, with the pending sale of Coyote, we expect to free up cash that was not in our original guidance plan. As a result, we are restarting our share repurchase program with the intent of repurchasing about $1 billion of shares annually, including roughly $500 million in 2024. So with that, thank you for listening. And let me turn the call over to Brian.

在我將電話轉交給布萊恩之前，我要說最後一句話。我們認為，對資本配置採取嚴格和平衡的方法非常重要，資本的首先用途是返回業務並支付股息，然後將多餘的現金用於股票回購。由於我們已經對未來網路的資本需求進行了微調，因此我們預計支出將低於最初的預期。此外，隨著 Coyote 的出售，我們預計將釋放出原始指導計劃中未包含的現金。因此，我們正在重新啟動股票回購計劃，計劃每年回購約 10 億美元的股票，其中到 2024 年回購約 5 億美元。讓我把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thank you, Carol, and good morning, everyone. First, I'm very thankful for the opportunity to lead the global finance organization and work with the entire leadership team to achieve the targets we've set. We have a lot of opportunity in front of us and the right team to achieve our goals. I'm also particularly eager to meet our investors as I hit the road over the next few weeks.

謝謝你，卡羅爾，大家早安。首先，我非常感謝有機會領導全球金融組織並與整個領導團隊合作以實現我們設定的目標。我們面前有很多機會和合適的團隊來實現我們的目標。當我在接下來的幾週內上路時，我也特別渴望見到我們的投資者。

This morning, I'll review our second quarter results, provide an update on capital allocation and, lastly, provide additional detail for our 2024 financial outlook. First, our results. The second quarter represented an important turning point for our business. In the US, volume inflected positively, and it was the last full quarter of the high wage growth rate associated with the first year of our new Teamsters contract. Outside the US, we saw pockets of demand improve in each export region driving growth in many of our more profitable lanes. Additionally, through our fit to serve initiative, we reduced our workforce by over 11,500 positions, which has translated into approximately $350 million in savings for the first half of 2024. And as Carol said, we are on track to deliver roughly $1 billion in savings by the end of the year.

今天早上，我將回顧我們第二季度的業績，提供資本配置的最新信息，最後提供我們 2024 年財務前景的更多細節。首先，我們的結果。第二季是我們業務的重要轉捩點。在美國，銷售量出現積極變化，這是與我們新卡車司機合約第一年相關的高工資成長率的最後一個完整季度。在美國以外，我們看到每個出口地區的部分需求有所改善，推動了我們許多利潤更高的航線的成長。此外，透過我們的「適應服務」計劃，我們減少了 11,500 多個職位，這意味著 2024 年上半年節省了約 3.5 億美元。 。

Looking at our consolidated performance. In the second quarter, revenue was $21.8 billion, a reduction of $237 million compared to the second quarter of 2023. Consolidated operating profit was $2.1 billion, down 29.3%, and consolidated operating margin was 9.5%. Diluted earnings per share was $1.79, down 29.5% from the second quarter of 2023.

看看我們的綜合業績。第二季營收為218億美元，較2023年第二季減少2.37億美元。稀釋後每股收益為 1.79 美元，較 2023 年第二季下降 29.5%。

Now let's look at our business segment. In the second quarter, US average daily volume increased 0.7% year over year. This marks a return to positive volume growth for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021. And sequentially, when compared to the first quarter of 2024, the average daily volume year-over-year growth rate increased by 390 basis points. At the beginning of the year, we expected to see three things in the second quarter. Volume growth, growth in B2C, and relatively consistent product mix to what we had experienced last year.

現在讓我們看看我們的業務部門。第二季度，美國日均成交量較去年同期成長0.7%。這標誌著自 2021 年第四季以來首次恢復正成長。今年年初，我們預計第二季會發生三件事。銷售成長、B2C 成長以及產品組合與我們去年的經驗相對一致。

While we saw strong volume growth in the second quarter led by B2C, it came with a different product mix. For the quarter, B2C volume increased 4.8% year-over-year and made up 58.5% of our volume, an increase of 220 basis points from a year ago. This growth was driven in large part by several new e-commerce customers that entered our network. B2B average daily volume finished down 4.6%. For returns remained a bright spot and increased 3% year over year.

雖然我們看到第二季 B2C 帶動的銷售強勁成長，但它帶來了不同的產品組合。本季度，B2C 交易量年增 4.8%，占我們交易量的 58.5%，較去年同期成長 220 個基點。這種成長在很大程度上是由進入我們網路的幾個新電子商務客戶所推動的。 B2B 日均成交量下跌 4.6%。回報仍然是一個亮點，同比增長 3%。

From a product perspective, we saw customers trade down between services. Specifically, we saw customers shift from air to ground and from ground to SurePost. As a result, total air average daily volume was down 7.8%, while ground average daily volume increased 2.3%. Within ground, SurePost average daily volume grew 25% driven by new shipper's product choices, product trade downs and easier comparisons due to last year's decline in volume during our contract negotiations. By enhancing our matching algorithm, we saw an increase in the percentage of SurePost packages redirected to UPS for delivery. As a result, SurePost redirect increased returning to 2020 level.

從產品的角度來看，我們看到客戶在服務之間進行折價。具體來說，我們看到客戶從空中轉移到地面，再從地面轉移到 SurePost。結果，空氣日均流量總量下降了 7.8%，而地面日均流量增加了 2.3%。在地面內，SurePost 日均交易量增加了 25%，這主要得益於新托運人的產品選擇、產品貿易下降以及去年合約談判期間交易量下降導致的更容易比較。透過增強我們的匹配演算法，我們發現將 SurePost 包裹重定向到 UPS 進行投遞的百分比有所增加。因此，SurePost 重定向增加到 2020 年的水平。

Turning to SMBs. We saw the trend from the first quarter continue with total SMB volume down until June when it flipped positive. And in terms of total volume, SMBs made up 29.7% in the second quarter. For the quarter, US Domestic generated revenue of $14.1 billion, down 1.9% compared to last year. Revenue per piece was down 2.6% year over year. Let me break down the components of the revenue per piece decline. Base rates increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 90 basis points. The combination of product mix, lighter weights and shorter zones decreased the revenue per piece growth rate by 310 basis points. The remaining 40 basis point decline in the revenue per piece growth rate was due to the combination of changes in customer mix and fuel.

轉向中小企業。我們看到第一季的趨勢仍在繼續，中小企業總交易量下降，直到六月才轉為正值。從總量來看，第二季中小企業佔29.7%。本季美國國內營收為 141 億美元，較去年下降 1.9%。每件營收年減 2.6%。讓我詳細分析每件收入下降的組成部分。基本費率使每件收入成長率提高了 90 個基點。產品組合、更輕的重量和更短的區域相結合，使每件收入成長率降低了 310 個基點。每件收入成長率其餘 40 個基點的下降是由於客戶結構和燃料的變化所致。

Turning to costs. Total expense increased 3.2% in the second quarter. Union wage rates increased 11.7%, driven by the contractual increase that went into effect in August of last year. The US domestic team took several actions and executed on productivity initiatives to partially offset the increase in compensation rate. We leveraged total service plan and network planning tools to reduce total operational hours by 1.4%, while volume grew 0.7%. Through network of the future, we had 17 operational closures in the second quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to 35. And because we're routing more volume through our automated facilities, we've permanently closed five buildings so far this year. We lowered block hours by 12.5% versus last year, and we recorded our best auto safety results in 10 years, driving a better outcome for our people and a better long-term cost picture for UPS.

轉向成本。第二季總費用成長 3.2%。在去年 8 月生效的合約加薪的推動下，工會薪資上漲了 11.7%。美國國內團隊採取了多項行動並執行了生產力舉措，以部分抵消補償率的增加。我們利用整體服務計畫和網路規劃工具，將總營運時間減少了 1.4%，同時業務量成長了 0.7%。透過未來網絡，我們在第二季度關閉了 17 個營運點，使年初至今的營運關閉總數達到 35 個。年。與去年相比，我們將阻塞時間減少了12.5%，並創下了10 年來最好的汽車安全成績，為我們的員工帶來了更好的成果，也為UPS 帶來了更好的長期成本前景。

Putting it all together, due to the actions we took in the second quarter, we held the cost per piece growth rate to only 2.5% even as union wages increased nearly 12%. This is the lowest cost per piece growth rate we've seen in more than three years. The US domestic segment delivered $997 million in operating profit, down 40.7% compared to the second quarter of 2023, and the operating margin was 7.1%.

總而言之，由於我們在第二季採取的行動，我們將單件成本成長率控制在只有 2.5%，儘管工會薪資增加了近 12%。這是我們三年多來看到的最低的單件成本成長率。美國國內業務實現營業利潤9.97億美元，較2023年第二季下降40.7%，營業利益率為7.1%。

Moving to our international segment. The second quarter was a turning point for our international business well. For the first time in 10 quarters, 11 of our top 20 export countries demonstrated year-over-year average daily volume growth, including several key markets in Europe. At the region level, Asia grew average daily volume and revenue in the quarter. And in the Americas regions, we continue to see solid signs of the shift in nearshoring.

轉向我們的國際部分。第二季是我們國際業務的轉捩點。在前 20 個出口國家中，有 11 個國家（包括歐洲的幾個主要市場）實現了每日平均銷售量年增長，這是 10 個季度以來的首次。在區域層面，亞洲本季日均交易量和收入均有所成長。在美洲地區，我們繼續看到近岸外包轉變的明顯跡象。

Looking at volume in the second quarter, international total average daily volume was down 2.9% year-over-year, which is half the decline we saw in the first quarter of this year. About three-quarters of the decline in the second quarter came from lower domestic average daily volume, which was down 4.4%, primarily driven by Europe. On the export side, average daily volume declined 1.5% year over year. However, on a sequential basis from the first quarter, export average daily volume improved 210 basis points.

從第二季的交易量來看，國際日均總交易量較去年同期下降了2.9%，是今年第一季降幅的一半。第二季約四分之三的下降來自國內日均交易量下降，下降了 4.4%，主要是由歐洲推動的。出口方面，日均成交量較去年同期下降1.5%。然而，與第一季相比，每日平均出口量較上季提高了210個基點。

While overall export average daily volume was down in Europe, in Germany, our largest export market, outbound grew 1%. In Asia, export average daily volume increased 1.7%. And within Asia, export volume on the China to US trade lane increased 20.6%. This is the third consecutive quarter of volume growth on this lane, which is our most profitable lane. And looking at the Americas region, export average daily volume increased 5%, which was the sixth consecutive quarter of growth. As we see the shift in nearshore and continue to take hold, our announced acquisition of Estafeta will further enhance our end-to-end services in Mexico.

雖然歐洲的日均出口總量有所下降，但我們最大的出口市場德國的出口量增加了 1%。在亞洲，每日平均出口量增加了1.7%。在亞洲範圍內，中國至美國貿易航線的出口量增加了 20.6%。這是該車道的銷售連續第三個季度成長，這是我們最賺錢的車道。而看美洲地區，日均出口量成長5%，這是連續第六個季度成長。隨著我們看到近岸業務的轉變並繼續佔據主導地位，我們宣布收購 Estafeta 將進一步增強我們在墨西哥的端到端服務。

In the second quarter, international revenue was $4.4 billion, down 1% from last year, primarily due to the decline in volume. Revenue per piece increased 2.4%, driven by strong base pricing and the positive impact of region and product mix. In the second quarter, total international expense was relatively flat year over year. Here, we leverage the agility of our integrated network to manage block hours down 2.1% compared to last year. Operating profit in the international segment was $824 million, down $78 million year over year. Operating margin in the second quarter was 18.9%.

第二季度，國際營收為 44 億美元，比去年下降 1%，主要是因為銷量下降。由於強勁的基本定價以及地區和產品組合的積極影響，每件收入增長了 2.4%。第二季度，國際總支出較去年同期相對持平。在這裡，我們利用整合網路的敏捷性來管理區塊時間，與去年相比減少了 2.1%。國際部門營業利潤為8.24億美元，較去年同期下降7,800萬美元。第二季營業利益率為18.9%。

Moving to supply chain solutions. In the face of a dynamic market, we remained agile and leaned into areas of growth. In the second quarter, revenue was $3.3 billion, up 2.6% year over year. Looking at the key drivers. Within international air freight, strong e-commerce demand, particularly in China outbound, drove an increase in volume and lifted market rates as demand outpaced capacity, resulting in an increase in revenue. On the ocean side, total volume and revenue was down year over year. However, toward the end of the quarter, demand on Asia outbound lanes improved and drove market rates higher.

轉向供應鏈解決方案。面對充滿活力的市場，我們保持敏捷並專注於成長領域。第二季營收為33億美元，年增2.6%。看看關鍵的驅動因素。在國際航空貨運方面，強勁的電子商務需求（尤其是中國出境市場）推動了貨運量的增加，並由於需求超過運力而提高了市場價格，從而導致收入增加。在海洋方面，總量和收入較去年同期下降。然而，到了本季末，亞洲出境航線的需求有所改善，推動市場運價走高。

Our truckload brokerage business, known as Coyote, continued to face market pressures, which drove revenue down. And then logistics revenue grew driven by the impact of MNX and healthcare. In the second quarter, supply chain solutions generated operating profit of $243 million, down $93 million year-over-year, reflecting market conditions, Operating margin was 7.3%.

我們的整車經紀業務（稱為 Coyote）繼續面臨市場壓力，導致收入下降。然後，物流收入在 MNX 和醫療保健的影響下成長。第二季度，供應鏈解決方案實現營業利潤 2.43 億美元，年減 9,300 萬美元，反映市場狀況，營業利潤率為 7.3%。

Walking through the rest of the income statement, we had $206 million of interest expense. Our other pension income was $67 million. And our effective tax rate for the second quarter was 23.4%.

瀏覽損益表的其餘部分，我們有 2.06 億美元的利息支出。我們的其他退休金收入為 6700 萬美元。我們第二季的有效稅率為23.4%。

Now let's turn to cash and capital allocation. Year-to-date, we've generated $5.3 billion in cash from operation and free cash flow of $3.4 billion. We finished the quarter with strong liquidity and no outstanding commercial paper. In May, we successfully issued $2.8 billion of debt to refinance $1.6 billion in current maturities which will shore up additional liquidity and support our acquisition strategy. And in the quarter, we announced that we would be outsourcing the asset management portion of our pension plan in order to focus squarely on our core business. while adding more expertise and oversight that will benefit UPS retirees.

現在讓我們轉向現金和資本配置。今年迄今為止，我們已從營運中產生了 53 億美元的現金，自由現金流為 34 億美元。本季末，我們的流動性強勁，沒有未償還的商業票據。 5 月份，我們成功發行了 28 億美元的債務，為目前到期的 16 億美元進行再融資，這將支撐額外的流動性並支持我們的收購策略。在本季度，我們宣布將外包退休金計畫的資產管理部分，以便專注於我們的核心業務。同時增加更多的專業知識和監督，這將使 UPS 退休人員受益。

Lastly, so far this year, UPS has paid $2.7 billion in dividends. which brings us to our outlook for the second half of 2024. Global economic growth forecast remained relatively unchanged in the back half of 2024. According to S&P Global, global GDP is expected to grow 2.7% for the full year 2024 and US GDP is expected to grow 2.4%. Additionally, as we've discussed, we still expect the US small package market excluding Amazon to grow by less than 1%.

最後，今年到目前為止，UPS 已支付了 27 億美元的股息。這為我們帶來了 2024 年下半年的展望。成長2.4%。此外，正如我們所討論的，我們仍然預計除亞馬遜外的美國小包裝市場的成長將低於 1%。

Looking at our business in the first half of 2024, revenue was below our expectations and operating profit was at the low end of the range we provided and finished down about 30%. Based on our performance in the first half of the year, combined with our expectation that the product shift we experienced in the US will continue through the rest of 2024, we have updated our guidance. This includes moving to a point estimate because it represents our best view of the many moving parts within our business.

看看我們 2024 年上半年的業務，收入低於我們的預期，營業利潤處於我們提供的範圍的低端，最終下降了約 30%。根據我們上半年的業績，結合我們對美國經歷的產品轉變將持續到 2024 年剩餘時間的預期，我們更新了我們的指引。這包括轉向點估計，因為它代表了我們對業務中許多移動部分的最佳看法。

We now expect consolidated revenue to be approximately $93 billion, and because the volume characteristics are different from what we originally anticipated, we now expect a consolidated operating margin of approximately 9.4%. Our guidance includes roughly $1 billion in savings from fit to serve. And as Carol mentioned, Coyote revenue and operating profit remains in our guidance and will until the transaction is executed.

我們現在預計合併收入約為 930 億美元，由於銷售特徵與我們最初的預期不同，我們現在預計合併營業利潤率約為 9.4%。我們的指導包括從適合到服務節省約 10 億美元。正如卡羅爾所提到的，Coyote 的收入和營業利潤仍然在我們的指導範圍內，直到交易執行為止。

Looking at the segments. In US domestic, we anticipate back half 2024 revenue growth of around 5%, driven by strong volume growth. As you update your models for US domestic, there are a few things to keep in mind. First, we expect average daily volume to grow by mid-single digits. Second, we will anniversary the first year of the Teamsters contract on August 1. Next, product mix is expected to continue to pressure revenue per piece. However, through expense management and slowing labor inflation, we expect to grow third quarter operating profit by double digits and exit the year with a US operating margin of 10%. And lastly, we expect a strong peak driven by volume growth and demand surcharges.

看看片段。在美國國內，在銷售強勁成長的推動下，我們預計 2024 年下半年營收將成長 5% 左右。當您更新美國國內的模型時，您需要記住一些事項。首先，我們預期日均交易量將成長中個位數。其次，我們將在 8 月 1 日慶祝卡車司機合約第一年。然而，透過費用管理和勞動力通膨放緩，我們預計第三季營業利潤將以兩位數成長，並以 10% 的美國營業利潤率結束今年。最後，我們預計在銷售成長和需求附加費的推動下將出現強勁的高峰。

Within the international segment, our full year and second half outlook remains consistent with what we provided at the beginning of the year. For the second half of 2024, we anticipate volume growth rates will inflect positively and the revenue growth to be in the mid-single digits. Operating margin in the second half of the year in the international segment is anticipated to be approximately 20%. And in supply chain solutions, in the second half of 2024, we expect revenue to be over $7 billion and an operating margin in the high single digits. Included in our guidance is the newly won air cargo business from the USPS, which will be fully onboarded by the end of the third quarter. And lastly, we expect the tax rate to be approximately 22% for the remainder of the year.

在國際領域，我們的全年和下半年展望與年初提供的展望保持一致。 2024 年下半年，我們預期銷售成長率將出現正面變化，營收成長將達到中個位數。國際業務下半年的營業利潤率預計約為 20%。在供應鏈解決方案方面，我們預計 2024 年下半年營收將超過 70 億美元，營業利潤率將達到高個位數。我們的指導包括新贏得的美國郵政航空貨運業務，該業務將於第三季末全面投入使用。最後，我們預計今年剩餘時間的稅率約為 22%。

Turning to capital allocation. For the full year in 2024, we expect free cash flow to be around $5.8 billion before any pension contribution. We've tightened our capital expenditure forecast and now expect to spend about $4 billion. We plan to pay out around $5.4 billion in dividends, subject to Board approval. And given our strong liquidity, while we originally had not planned to repurchase shares, we now plan to repurchase approximately $500 million of shares this year. With that, operator, please open the lines for questions.

轉向資本配置。 2024 年全年，我們預計不計任何退休金繳款的自由現金流約為 58 億美元。我們收緊了資本支出預測，目前預計支出約 40 億美元。我們計劃支付約 54 億美元的股息，但須經董事會批准。鑑於我們強大的流動性，雖然我們原本沒有計劃回購股票，但現在我們計劃今年回購約 5 億美元的股票。那麼，接線員，請打開提問線路。

(Operator Instructions) Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

（操作員說明）Tom Wadewitz，UBS。

Yeah, good morning. I wanted to see if you could offer some more thoughts on what's happening with domestic package volume and the mix effect. In fact, if I look at the core ground, so excluding SurePost, it looks like you saw a decline sequentially. So let's say, 2 point -- excuse me, 12.3 million pieces a day in 1Q to 11.7 million if I exclude SurePost. So do you think -- is that just market weaker? Or is that kind of competitive performance? So just wanted to see if you could offer more thoughts on what's happening in domestic package volume. And then maybe why -- what are key levers to see that mix performance improve as we look at second half. Thank you.

是的，早安。我想看看您是否可以就國內包裝量和混合效應的情況提供更多想法。事實上，如果我看看核心領域，那麼排除 SurePost，看起來你會看到連續下降。所以，讓我們說 2 點——對不起，如果我排除 SurePost，第一季每天有 1230 萬件到 1170 萬件。那麼您認為——這只是市場疲軟嗎？或者說這就是一種競技表現？所以只是想看看您是否可以對國內包裹數量的變化提供更多想法。然後也許是為什麼——當我們展望下半年時，看到混合性能改善的關鍵槓桿是什麼。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Tom, for the question. I think when you look at the domestic volume performance from the second quarter and then going forward, in the second quarter, there's really two big impacts that were driving the change. One is we did see customers favoring our more economical products, so going from air to ground, and within ground, from ground to SurePost. And that was across the broad base of customers. We also saw an acceleration of new entrants, new e-commerce customers that were coming into the market that are, quite frankly, running a different model than our traditional customers and are highly leveraging our SurePost product. So we saw an acceleration of SurePost.

是的。謝謝湯姆提出這個問題。我認為，當你看看第二季的國內銷售表現以及接下來的第二季時，確實有兩個重大影響推動了這一變化。一是我們確實看到客戶青睞我們更經濟的產品，因此從空中到地面，以及在地面內，從地面到 SurePost。這涉及廣泛的客戶群。我們也看到新進業者、新電子商務客戶的加速進入市場，坦白說，他們運行著與我們傳統客戶不同的模式，並且高度利用我們的 SurePost 產品。所以我們看到了 SurePost 的加速發展。

The growth rate is also complicated as you think about what happened in the second quarter of last year because of the type of customers that diverted early. As we were approaching the Teamster contract, it does also skew the growth rate. As we move forward and you see -- you can see it in our forecast and within the guide, that we do expect the -- that mix to rationalize as we move towards the end of the year. And we've got line of sight to that in our pipeline and are working to actively pull those through as we kind of balance the mix of products going into the second half.

考慮到去年第二季度由於提前轉移的客戶類型而發生的情況，成長率也很複雜。當我們接近卡車司機合約時，它也確實扭曲了成長率。當我們向前邁進時，你會看到——你可以在我們的預測和指南中看到，我們確實期望——隨著我們接近年底，這種組合將會合理化。我們已經在我們的管道中看到了這一點，並正在努力積極地完成這些工作，因為我們在某種程度上平衡了下半年的產品組合。

And maybe a couple of other comments about just the volume. As you saw, our commercial business was down year-on-year, although the rate of decline has moderated greatly. As we look to the back half of the year, we expect that to improve. Our pipeline is quite robust. So we expect to see good movement in that space.

也許還有一些關於音量的其他評論。正如你所看到的，我們的商業業務同比下降，儘管下降的速度已經大大放緩。展望今年下半年，我們預期情況會有所改善。我們的管道非常強大。因此，我們預計該領域會出現良好的變化。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

Yeah, hi, good morning. Just again on the trade down from more premium products to economic products, what changes customer behavior to go back? And is it simply the economy? And then what are your thoughts on sort of the B2B side of the equation which I guess is still under pressure? Do you anticipate a step up with more of a focus on just-in-time inventory, a need to move things quicker from that end? And when would you think that timing could look better? Thanks.

是的，嗨，早安。再次，從更優質的產品轉向經濟產品，是什麼改變了客戶的行為？這僅僅是經濟嗎？那麼，您對 B2B 方面有何看法，我認為 B2B 方面仍面臨壓力？您是否預計會更加關注及時庫存，從而需要更快地轉移貨物？您認為什麼時候時機會比較好？謝謝。

On the B2B front, as we discussed, it was down year on year. Part of that was because of customers who left us during the contract negotiation that have not returned. They left us, they locked themselves into long-term contracts and they have not yet returned. That just gives us an opportunity to win them back for the excellent service that we provide. We've also seen some dynamics within the B2B space occur recently within poolers, companies going out of business like overnight, which gives us an opportunity to bring that business back into our network. It's already starting to flow. And as I mentioned, the pipeline of commercial accounts is robust. So we expect that to improve dramatically in the back half of the year.

在 B2B 方面，正如我們所討論的，它逐年下降。部分原因是在合約談判期間離開我們的客戶尚未返回。他們離開了我們，將自己鎖定在長期合約中，而且還沒有回來。這讓我們有機會透過我們提供的優質服務贏得他們的青睞。我們也看到 B2B 領域最近在聯營公司內部發生了一些動態，這些公司一夜之間就倒閉了，這給了我們一個機會將該業務帶回我們的網路。它已經開始流動了。正如我所提到的，商業帳戶的管道很強大。因此，我們預計這一情況將在今年下半年顯著改善。

On the RPP, it's really interesting. We've had these new e-commerce entrants into the United States. And their volume, well, it's exploded. It was certainly more than we anticipate flowing into our network. So in -- to your question, is this a phenomena forever? I don't know. It depends on what consumer demand will be. But we're going to focus on the parts of the market that really value our end-to-end service and expect to see some of the pressure that we saw on the RPP in the second quarter moderate. And Brian, maybe you can give a little bit more color on what we think the RPP will look like in the back half of the year.

在RPP上，這真的很有趣。這些新的電子商務進入者已經進入美國。他們的數量，嗯，已經爆炸了。流入我們網路的數量肯定超出了我們的預期。那麼，對於你的問題，這是永遠的現象嗎？我不知道。這取決於消費者的需求是什麼。但我們將重點放在真正重視我們端到端服務的市場部分，並預計第二季 RPP 所面臨的一些壓力將會有所緩解。 Brian，也許你可以對我們認為的 RPP 在今年下半年的情況提供更多的資訊。

Yeah. So as Carol mentioned, yes, we do expect the RPP growth to moderate in the back half. And actually, as we move from kind of the negative 2.6% that we're at to almost approach breakeven as we get towards the end of the year. And there's a couple of pieces of that. Carol had mentioned the B2B piece. I would say the bright spot within B2B is returns, that improved 3%. And we are seeing uptake with the addition of Happy Returns into the portfolio. And as that pipeline builds and we start to see that pull through, that continues to accelerate our B2B business.

是的。正如卡羅爾所提到的，是的，我們確實預計 RPP 成長將在下半年放緩。事實上，隨著我們從 2.6% 的負利率轉向接近年底，我們幾乎接近盈虧平衡。其中有幾個部分。卡羅爾提到了 B2B 部分。我想說 B2B 的亮點是回報率，提高了 3%。我們看到，隨著 Happy Returns 的加入，我們的產品組合得到了廣泛應用。隨著這條管道的建立，我們開始看到它的成功，這將繼續加速我們的 B2B 業務。

The other thing I would say is that we do have a strong pipeline of ground-ready products. And what happens with the SurePost product is it allows you to get new customers in, leveraging that. We get the integration into their systems, we get the pickups process set up, and then they become part of the UPS portfolio but then allows us to expand that as we go through the cycles.

我要說的另一件事是，我們確實擁有強大的地面就緒產品管道。 SurePost 產品的作用是讓您能夠利用這一點吸引新客戶。我們將其整合到他們的系統中，設定取貨流程，然後它們成為 UPS 產品組合的一部分，但隨後允許我們在整個週期中對其進行擴展。

And maybe one other comment about SurePost because the question may be, do you like that product. We actually like the product. It provides a steady solution for us. We also, through our matching algorithm, we can redirect the packages back into the ground network. And in fact, the redirect percentage was 40%. So that's returning back to levels we saw during the COVID.

也許還有關於 SurePost 的另一條評論，因為問題可能是，您喜歡該產品嗎？我們實際上喜歡這個產品。它為我們提供了穩定的解決方案。我們也可以透過匹配演算法將包裹重定向回地面網路。事實上，重定向百分比為 40%。所以這又回到了我們在新冠疫情期間看到的水平。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

肯‧霍克斯特，美國銀行。

Hey. Great, good morning. Carol, Brian, I guess the spread of margins, I mean can you talk about kind of the reaction we should see in third quarter? I guess, typically, we see maybe 100 basis points pullback. I just want to get seasonality or kind of flow that we should expect through the year. And then I think you mentioned the 90 basis points of pure pricing. I want to understand the margin impact there. Is that just a fraction of GRI? Has that shifted as well? Thanks.

嘿。太好了，早安。卡羅爾、布萊恩，我猜利潤率的差距，我的意思是你能談談我們在第三季應該看到的反應嗎？我想，通常情況下，我們可能會看到 100 個基點的回調。我只是想了解我們全年應該預期的季節性或流量。然後我想你提到了 90 個純定價的基點。我想了解那裡的利潤影響。這只是 GRI 的一小部分嗎？這也發生了變化嗎？謝謝。

So maybe I'll talk about the RPP and then you can talk about the margin? So on the base pricing, there's many dynamics on the base pricing. First, we were up against very tough comparisons from a year ago. Why? Well, you'll recall that our volume declined in the United States in the second quarter by almost 10%. And this was related to noise around the labor contract negotiation. If you look at who declined during that timeframe, it was predominantly dual-sourcers who are low GRI customers.

那麼也許我會談談 RPP，然後你可以談談利潤？因此，在基本定價方面，基本定價有很多動態。首先，我們面臨著與一年前非常艱難的比較。為什麼？您可能還記得，第二季我們在美國的銷售量下降了近 10%。這與圍繞勞動合約談判的喧囂有關。如果你看看誰在這段時間內拒絕了，你會發現主要是雙源客戶，他們是低 GRI 客戶。

So last year's base pricing was a bit artificially inflated because it's just the mix change. If you roll forward now to this year, what you see in the base pricing is, okay, the tough comparisons year-on-year as well as new entrants that don't have a GRI because they're starting to ship with us for the first time. And then finally, if you zoom out and say, well, what's the keep rate looking like on those customers who have a GRI? The keep rate is looking at about 50%. So as we get past this timeframe and get into an easier compare, that's why we think our base rates can improve dramatically in the -- from where it was in the second half. And maybe you can talk about the margins?

因此，去年的基本定價有點人為誇大，因為這只是組合變化。如果你現在向前滾動到今年，你會在基本定價中看到，好吧，逐年進行艱難的比較，以及沒有 GRI 的新進入者，因為他們開始與我們一起發貨第一次。最後，如果您縮小範圍並說，那些擁有 GRI 的客戶的保留率是什麼樣的？保留率約為50%。因此，當我們過了這個時間範圍並進行更容易的比較時，這就是為什麼我們認為我們的基本利率可以從下半年的水平大幅提高。也許你可以談談利潤？

Yeah. And Ken, I'll give you a little bit of shaping for how we think the second half is going to go because we do have confidence in how we're going to be able to pull through the margin. First, if you think about in the US from Q3 to Q4, we expect ADV to be up around kind of mid-single digit. We do -- as we just talked about, the decline in RPP growth will moderate, so about negative 1.5% in the third quarter, negative 5% in the fourth quarter. And as we get to peak and we see the holiday demand surcharges, we expect that to get even better. And we expect op profit to be up kind of double digits in Q3. And then December, as Carol mentioned before, we're going to hit a 10% operating margin.

是的。肯，我將向您介紹我們對下半年的看法，因為我們確實對如何擺脫困境充滿信心。首先，如果你考慮美國從第三季到第四季的情況，我們預計日均交易量將上漲約中個位數。正如我們剛才談到的，RPP 增速的下降將會放緩，因此第三季將下降 1.5%，第四季將下降 5%。當我們達到高峰並看到假期需求附加費時，我們預計情況會變得更好。我們預計第三季營運利潤將成長兩位數。然後 12 月，正如卡羅爾之前提到的，我們的營業利潤率將達到 10%。

In international, Q3 ADV is kind of flat to slightly positive year-over-year, with Q4 up mid-single digits and the RPP growth of 1% to 2% year-over-year in the second half. Our Q3 op margin is in the high teens and then getting to over 20% in Q4. So continuing that strong momentum in international. And then we expect a mid-teens revenue growth in SCS and stronger year-over-year profit growth in Q3 and Q4 with the second half up about 20%.

國際方面，第三季ADV較去年同期持平或小幅成長，第四季實現中個位數成長，下半年RPP年增1%至2%。我們第三季的營運利潤率高達十幾歲，然後在第四季度達到 20% 以上。因此，在國際上繼續保持強勁的勢頭。然後，我們預計第三季和第四季 SCS 的營收將出現十幾歲左右的成長，同比利潤成長將更為強勁，下半年將成長約 20%。

And look, I think we've got a lot of confidence that we can pull through the second half forecast for a couple of reasons. One is we've got line of sight to the volume. We've shown the volume has been building. We've got a line of sight to the volume that we need to deliver the top line. And that helps offset some of the RPP growth, and you can see that in the guide. On the cost side, fit to serve is on track. We have reduced 11,500 or 90% of the resources that we had anticipated. And then we've also got line of sight to revenue improvements that are in the pipeline as well that are going to help us drive better profitability as we get into the second half. So we absolutely feel confident that we're back to the point of revenue growth, profit growth and back to margin expansion in the US.

看，我認為我們對能夠完成下半年的預測充滿信心，原因有幾個。一是我們已經可以看到這個捲了。我們已經表明銷量一直在增加。我們已經了解了實現營收所需的銷售量。這有助於抵消部分 RPP 的成長，您可以在指南中看到這一點。在成本方面，適合服務已步入正軌。我們減少了 11,500 個資源，也就是我們預期資源的 90%。然後，我們也看到了正在醞釀中的收入改善，這將幫助我們在進入下半年時提高獲利能力。因此，我們絕對有信心我們將回到美國的收入成長、利潤成長和利潤率擴張的階段。

And just one other piece of color, don't forget that we're anniversary-ing our labor contract on August 1. So the pressure associated with that contract moderates dramatically in the back half.

還有一點值得一提的是，別忘了 8 月 1 日是我們的勞動合約週年紀念日。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧尚克，摩根士丹利。

Thanks, good morning. Two-parter, if I may, please. Given -- I mean, you've done a pretty good job of kind of managing your largest customer in terms of size. Will you be looking to also meter the growth from these new e-commerce customers as part of better, not bigger if the mix is not being helpful? And second question is, can you help us dimension the size of returns in your operation either in terms of volume or revenue, please? Thank you.

謝謝，早安。如果可以的話，請兩人一起。鑑於—我的意思是，你們在管理最大客戶的規模方面做得相當不錯。如果這種組合沒有幫助，您是否還會考慮衡量這些新電子商務客戶的成長，將其視為更好而非更大的一部分？第二個問題是，您能否幫助我們衡量您的營運回報規模，無論是數量還是收入？謝謝。

So first, in terms of our largest customer, we have a very good relationship with that customer, and the revenue for the quarter was at 11.5% of total revenue, so about the same as it was a year ago. And we look forward to continuing to optimizing the relationship we had with that customer. In terms of the new e-commerce entrants that have come into our network, so we are focused on serving the segments of the opportunities that really respect our end-to-end network, and we will continue to do that.

首先，就我們最大的客戶而言，我們與該客戶有著非常好的關係，該季度的收入佔總收入的 11.5%，與一年前大致相同。我們期待繼續優化我們與該客戶的關係。就進入我們網路的新電子商務進入者而言，我們專注於為真正尊重我們端到端網路的機會細分市場提供服務，我們將繼續這樣做。

One reason why we're leaning so hard into healthcare, another reason why we're leaning so hard into SMBs. And I couldn't say enough goodness about our SMB business, particularly our digital access program, where the revenue grew 7.7% year on year. We now have 38 partners around the world in that program and over 5.8 million shippers on the program. Returns, Brian, do you want to comment on that?

這也是我們如此大力投資醫療保健的原因之一，也是我們如此大力投資中小企業的另一個原因。我對我們的中小企業業務讚不絕口，尤其是我們的數位存取計劃，該計劃的收入同比增長了 7.7%。目前，我們在全球有 38 個合作夥伴參與該計劃，並且有超過 580 萬托運人參與該計劃。返回，布萊恩，你想對此發表評論嗎？

Yeah. So Ravi, we don't -- return rolls up into our B2B product and also into the ground commercial breakout that we give. Look, returns is a portfolio that UPS has had for a long time that we continue to add to and be a leader in. It's one that we've continued to see growth in B2B even when we've had pressures in other parts of the business. And it leverages not only are kind of single piece returns and technology capabilities that enable customers to integrate with their process, but also the UPS store footprint, which allows us to have a very unique returns offering. Now when you add Happy to that, we're able to do consolidated returns, it really becomes a unique portfolio that provides growth in B2B.

是的。所以拉維，我們不會——回報融入我們的 B2B 產品中，也融入我們提供的地面商業突破。看，退貨是 UPS 長期以來的投資組合，我們不斷增加並成為其中的領導者。它不僅利用了單件退貨和技術能力，使客戶能夠與其流程集成，而且還利用了 UPS 商店的佔地面積，這使我們能夠提供非常獨特的退貨服務。現在，當你添加 Happy 的時候，我們能夠實現合併回報，它真正成為一個獨特的投資組合，可以提供 B2B 的成長。

And Matt Guffey is here. Maybe, Matt, you want to comment on Happy Returns and how that's going -- the integration is going.

馬特·加菲也在這裡。也許，馬特，你想評論快樂回報以及它的進展情況——整合正在進行中。

Absolutely. So Happy Returns integration has been extremely important. Remember, we made that acquisition last November. We turned on all 5,200 stores in a matter of eight weeks, which gives us great scale. And with this, to Brian's point, it's just not about the digital capabilities, but it's also about that physical footprint and the experience that you can drive for not just the consumer but also the shipper. So we continue to see growth from the Happy Returns portfolio and -- but also complementary to the single piece returns as well.

絕對地。因此，Happy Return 的整合就顯得極為重要。請記住，我們去年 11 月進行了這項收購。我們在八週內打開了所有 5,200 家商店，這讓我們擁有了巨大的規模。在布萊恩看來，這不僅與數位能力有關，還與實體足跡以及您不僅可以為消費者而且可以為托運人帶來的體驗有關。因此，我們繼續看到快樂回報投資組合的成長，而且也是對單件回報的補充。

So as we think about no box, no label and consolidation, we're also doing the no box, no label single piece. So it allows consumers and shippers to get the benefit on -- and managing the rules on how they want the returns to come back to them.

因此，當我們考慮無盒子、無標籤和整合時，我們也在做無盒子、無標籤單件。因此，它使消費者和托運人能夠從中受益，並管理他們希望如何獲得退貨的規則。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫研究。

Hey, thanks, good morning. So Brian, can you just clarify -- you're saying that US package EBIT will be up double digits. Are you sort of pointing us towards that -- around that 10% growth rate and then just because double digits is going to obviously mean a lot.

嘿，謝謝，早安。布萊恩，你能澄清一下嗎——你是說美國的一攬子息稅前利潤將增加兩位數。您是否在向我們指出這一點——大約 10% 的成長率，然後僅僅因為兩位數顯然意味著很多。

And then bigger picture, Carol. At the Analyst Day, you talked about industry oversupply, we're seeing negative yields. It doesn't feel like there's a lot of pricing power right now. But in that context, your -- the peak season surcharges coming are really big. And we were surprised by the magnitude of them. So I guess my question is like are we at an inflection point where you think you can start pushing price more aggressively? And is this a turn? Is this just a unique quarter with a compressed peak? I just want to understand, the peak surcharges seem to go in contrast with what we're seeing in underlying price and yield right now. And I just want to understand if we're at a turning point.

然後是更大的圖景，卡羅爾。在分析師日，您談到了行業供應過剩，我們看到了負收益率。感覺現在沒有太大的定價能力。但在這種情況下，即將到來的旺季附加費確實很大。我們對它們的規模感到驚訝。所以我想我的問題是，我們是否正處於一個拐點，您認為您可以開始更積極地推高價格？這是一個回合嗎？這只是一個高峰被壓縮的獨特季度嗎？我只是想了解，尖峰附加費似乎與我們現在看到的基礎價格和收益率形成鮮明對比。我只是想了解我們是否正處於一個轉折點。

Well, let's talk about the margin first, and then we'll talk about peak.

好吧，我們先談談邊際，然後再談談高峰。

Yeah. So Scott, I think what I was talking about was the shaping of Q3 to Q4. And in Q3, yes, we expect domestic package EBIT to be up in the 10% to 15% range. And then for the -- and then it will moderate a little bit. The growth will moderate a little bit in Q4 as the comp levels out. And Carol, do you want to --

是的。所以史考特，我認為我所說的是第三季到第四季的塑造。是的，我們預計第三季國內套餐 EBIT 將成長 10% 至 15%。然後它會稍微緩和一些。隨著競爭趨於平穩，第四季的成長將略有放緩。卡羅爾，你想——

I'll be happy to talk about peak. So it is a condensed peak. It's the most condensed peak since 2019. There are only 17 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. And as we look at the volume projections for peak, we are expecting on our peak day, which is December 18, has the highest volume ever in our network. Now when you have that kind of volume flowing to your network, you actually have to charge to service them well because you have to hire people and lease aircraft and delivery vehicles, so on and so forth. So we think that the prices are going to stick because of what the environment is telling us from a demand perspective.

我很樂意談論峰值。所以它是一個濃縮的峰。這是2019年以來最密集的高峰。當我們查看高峰的交易量預測時，我們預計 12 月 18 日的高峰日將出現我們網路有史以來最高的交易量。現在，當你有這樣的流量流入你的網路時，你實際上必須收費才能為它們提供良好的服務，因為你必須僱用人員、租賃飛機和運輸車輛等等。因此，我們認為，由於環境從需求角度告訴我們，價格將會維持不變。

I would also say candidly, they're up against very easy comparison last year. Because, as you recall, well, we peaked, volume was declining in the network. So the year-over-year comparisons and the fact that this peak is tight gives us confidence. That being said, we also have an opportunity to price -- moving from the art of pricing to the science of pricing through the new tools that we have been talking to you about. Pricing architecture of the future gives us the opportunity to use modifiers and price that creates opportunities to -- for value for our customers as well as value for ourselves. That plus deal manager, which has been a huge home run for us, we are winning more deals at less discounts than we have in the past. And Matt, maybe I'll turn it back over to you for a comment on price.

我還坦白地說，去年他們進行了非常簡單的比較。因為，正如您所記得的那樣，當我們達到頂峰時，網路中的交易量正在下降。因此，同比比較以及這個峰值很緊的事實給了我們信心。話雖如此，我們也有機會進行定價——透過我們一直在與您談論的新工具，從定價藝術轉向定價科學。未來的定價架構使我們有機會使用修飾符和價格，從而為我們的客戶以及我們自己創造價值。再加上交易經理，這對我們來說是一個巨大的本壘打，我們以比過去更少的折扣贏得了更多交易。馬特，也許我會把它轉回給你，請你對價格發表評論。

Yeah. So first off, we think we're competing in a rational pricing environment today. And to Carol's point, I think about it in three segments, when she hit on some of the mediums. We also talked about our digital access program, where we have the ability to leverage the architecture of tomorrow. And the way to think about the technology, if I could, just to give you context, is the technology gets dynamic pricing across all customer segments and all channels.

是的。首先，我們認為我們今天是在一個合理的定價環境中競爭。對於卡蘿的觀點，當她接觸到一些媒材時，我分成三個部分思考了這一點。我們還討論了我們的數位存取計劃，我們有能力利用未來的架構。如果可以的話，思考該技術的方式是，該技術可以在所有客戶群和所有管道中獲得動態定價。

So we've leveraged it to win in the digital access program, Carol highlighted deal manager. How you think about now moving forward, which I think is really exciting for us is now we have the ability through the modifiers that she highlighted, to dynamically priced across our enterprise customers to better align our price to our cost to serve while also providing the best value for our customers.

「因此，我們利用它在數位存取計劃中獲勝，」交易經理卡羅爾強調。您如何看待現在的發展，我認為這對我們來說非常令人興奮，現在我們有能力透過她強調的修改器，對我們的企業客戶進行動態定價，以便更好地將我們的價格與我們的服務成本保持一致，同時也提供為我們的客戶提供最大的價值。

So hopefully, that's helpful, Scott.

希望這對您有所幫助，斯科特。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧佛農，伯恩斯坦。

Hey, good afternoon or good morning and thanks for taking my question. So Carol, when you came in, there was a lot of focus on value over volume. But here we are guiding down the back half on really easy comps through growth in lower-value volume. Has something changed to your focus for the company? Like what should investors take away from this sort of -- what seems like a pivot towards chasing volume again?

嘿，下午好或早上好，感謝您提出我的問題。所以卡羅爾，當你進來時，人們更加關注價值而不是數量。但在這裡，我們透過低價值銷售的成長來引導下半年真正簡單的競爭。您對公司的關注點是否發生了變化？投資者應該從這種情況中得到什麼——似乎再次轉向追逐成交量？

Yeah. So we're not chasing volume. We actually accepted new customers into our network with certain volume expectations that blew up on us. We're not chasing it. It's just their demand was much higher than we had anticipated. And so we are laser-focused on, focusing on the segments of the market that value our end-to-end network. Better not bigger has not gone away. We'll be managing through this. We need to manage through it, and we will be managing through it. So don't read anything into this other than we had new customers come into our network whose volume blew up. And we were able to serve that with the best on-time service of any carrier.

是的。所以我們不追求數量。實際上，我們在接受新客戶進入我們的網路時，對數量的預期超出了我們的預期。我們不追趕它。只是他們的要求比我們預期的要高得多。因此，我們專注於重視我們端到端網路的市場領域。更好而不是更大並沒有消失。我們將設法解決這個問題。我們需要管理它，我們也將管理它。因此，除了我們有新客戶進入我們的網絡，其交易量激增之外，不要對此進行任何解讀。我們能夠提供所有承運人中最好的準時服務。

And Carol, if I can just add one thing because I think the value of the volume is also very important. And while we had a lot more shippers in the network, it is important to reinforce this point that SurePost rides in the same theaters and the same hubs that all the other packages do, and it helped us drive incremental productivity. Our [shipping] utilization was up in the feeder network. Our hub productivity was up. Our preload productivity was up.

卡羅爾，如果我可以添加一件事，因為我認為卷的價值也非常重要。雖然我們的網路中有更多的托運人，但重要的是要強調這一點，即 SurePost 與所有其他包裹都在相同的劇院和相同的中心，並且它幫助我們提高了生產力。我們的支線網路的[運輸]利用率有所提高。我們的中心生產力得到了提升。我們的預載生產力提高了。

And when you look at what that does with cost per piece, the US business was able to hold cost per piece to a 2.5% growth rate in the face of a 12% increase in compensation rate. So that alone is huge. Then you layer on top of that the impact it can have on the delivery side with the redirect and really driving stop-and-route density. It's -- the volume generates productivity improvements throughout the entire network, now we have the ability to manage as we move forward.

當你看到這對每件成本的影響時，你會發現，面對補償率增加 12%，美國企業能夠將每件成本的成長率保持在 2.5%。所以僅此一項就很大了。然後，您可以透過重定向和真正​​提高停靠點和路線密度來對交付方產生的影響進行分層。它的數量提高了整個網路的生產力，現在我們有能力在前進的過程中進行管理。

So I mean, I guess, I appreciate that. But when you think about the guidance you just gave for 3Q being 10% to 15% off a really low base, it just doesn't seem like it's dropping to the bottom line. And that's what investors are looking to capitalize, your earnings, not necessarily productivity or cost per piece growth.

所以我的意思是，我想，我很欣賞這一點。但當你想到你剛剛給出的第三季指導值比非常低的基數低 10% 到 15% 時，你會發現它似乎並沒有下降到底線。這就是投資人想要資本化的東西，你的收入，不一定是生產力或單位成本成長。

Yeah. No, we appreciate that. We do. There are a number of actions that we can take to address this. But we thought it was important to provide guidance today. Is that the most realistic view of the back half of the year. It doesn't mean that this is the future of our company. In fact, as we mentioned, we will exit the US with a 10% operating margin. That's a significant change from where we have been.

是的。不，我們對此表示讚賞。我們的確是。我們可以採取多種行動來解決這個問題。但我們認為今天提供指導很重要。這就是下半年最真實的看法嗎？這並不意味著這就是我們公司的未來。事實上，正如我們所提到的，我們將以 10% 的營業利潤率退出美國市場。與我們之前的情況相比，這是一個重大變化。

Got it. Thank you for the time.

知道了。謝謝你的時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

克里斯‧韋瑟比，富國銀行。

Yeah. Hi, thanks, good morning. Maybe touching on that last response, Carol. What are some of the things that you can do to adjust to the network changes that we're seeing, and the product mix changes that we're seeing? Is your ability to pull forward fit to serve, cost takeout, some of the other network structure changes? I guess just how do you fix profitability running at that low level as it is right now?

是的。嗨，謝謝，早安。也許會涉及到最後的回應，卡羅爾。您可以採取哪些措施來適應我們所看到的網路變化以及我們所看到的產品組合變化？您的能力是否能夠適應服務、成本削減以及其他一些網路結構的變化？我想你如何修復目前如此低水準的獲利能力？

So one way is to accelerate network of the future. And I get a review from the team every two weeks on what we're doing in that regard, while we committed to five additional closures in the back half of this year, I think there's an opportunity to do more. Nando, would you like to comment on that?

所以一種方法是加速未來的網路。我每兩週都會收到團隊對我們在這方面所做的工作的審查，雖然我們承諾在今年下半年再關閉五個工廠，但我認為還有機會做更多的事情。 Nando，您想對此發表評論嗎？

Yeah, there sure is. And look, we I would just say the operators and the engineers are in tiptop shape right now. And our network is matching to the actual activity that is occurring. But I will tell you, there's additional opportunity. As we've closed 35 operational operations this year, we've got additional in the second half. But also, we're starting online 23 new projects that is going to drive additional automation into our efficiency.

是的，肯定有。看，我只想說操作員和工程師現在處於最佳狀態。我們的網路與正在發生的實際活動相符。但我會告訴你，還有額外的機會。今年我們已經關閉了 35 家營運機構，下半年我們還會關閉更多營運機構。而且，我們正在線上啟動 23 個新項目，這些項目將進一步提高自動化程度，提高我們的效率。

And so as you start to see the efficiency unfold, we talked about the hours versus the volume, our air volume versus block hours. And of course, there's a lot of discussion about SurePost, we're up 300 basis points, making sure we're matching that product with every other package in our network to reduce our operational costs. So as we find those opportunities, we continue making sure we're pressing forward. And for what it's worth, the value of all of that is, one, very efficient, very safe, and pleasing network to our customer.

因此，當您開始看到效率展開時，我們討論了時間與流量、我們的風量與阻塞時間。當然，關於 SurePost 有很多討論，我們提高了 300 個基點，以確保我們將該產品與我們網路中的所有其他包裹相匹配，以降低我們的營運成本。因此，當我們發現這些機會時，我們將繼續確保我們繼續前進。就其價值而言，所有這一切的價值在於，一是為我們的客戶提供非常高效、非常安全且令人愉悅的網路。

And Kate, the same is true outside of the United States. So what cost down activities are you focused on?

而凱特，在美國之外也是如此。那麼您重點關注哪些成本降低活動呢？

Yeah. So Carol, I think the important move that we made at the start of the year that is playing out in the second half, and you can see it in the margins, of course, is the flattening of our structure. We actually -- we're focused on, how do we speed up from the customer to the decision-making. And we eliminated a whole layer throughout the world. and we are getting great feedback both from the customer as well as from our people.

是的。所以卡羅爾，我認為我們在今年年初採取的重要舉措將在下半年發揮作用，當然，你可以在邊緣看到它，那就是我們的結構的扁平化。實際上，我們專注於如何加快從客戶到決策的速度。我們在世界各地消除了一整層。我們從客戶和我們的員工那裡得到了很好的回饋。

One example of that, also playing off of what Matt talked about with deal manager, we have actually shaved off two weeks of pricing time internationally. International is very complex. Every bid is different countries and different cost structures. To be able to do that and get it down now into two-day turn time or less for our SMBs, that's why we're seeing an over 60% SMB mix in the international arena as well. So both sides of the profit equation.

其中一個例子，也是利用馬特與交易經理談論的內容，我們實際上在國際上縮短了兩週的定價時間。國際關係非常複雜。每個投標都是不同的國家和不同的成本結構。為了能夠做到這一點，並將我們的中小型企業的周轉時間縮短為兩天或更短，這就是為什麼我們在國際舞台上也看到超過 60% 的中小型企業組合。所以利潤方程式的兩邊都是這樣。

Productivity is a virtuous cycle here at UPS. I think we've shown that we can drive cost out, and we will continue to do that.

在 UPS，生產力是一個良性循環。我認為我們已經證明我們可以降低成本，並且我們將繼續這樣做。

Bruce Chan, Stifel.

布魯斯·陳，斯蒂菲爾。

Hey, thanks operator. And good morning, everyone. Brian, you talked a little bit about the line of sight on volumes in the back half. And I'm wondering if maybe you could give us a bit more color on where RPP or yield trends have been moving into the third quarter so far. And I ask this because I think we saw a little bit of a deterioration, maybe a surprise deterioration on those metrics.

嘿，謝謝接線生。大家早安。布萊恩，你談到了後半部的視線。我想知道您是否可以給我們更多關於第三季度到目前為止 RPP 或收益率趨勢的進展。我問這個問題是因為我認為我們看到了一些指標的惡化，也許是這些指標的意外惡化。

Last quarter, it seems like that was not expected. So I'm just kind of curious, what makes you so confident that the mix issues and the trade down issues that surprised us have kind of stabilized here and won't continue to deteriorate? And then maybe just worth a shot here, but is it possible to talk about what domestic volume growth would have been without that e-commerce customer?

上個季度，這似乎是出乎意料的。所以我只是有點好奇，是什麼讓您如此有信心，讓我們感到驚訝的混合問題和貿易問題已經穩定下來並且不會繼續惡化？也許這裡值得一試，但是否有可能談論如果沒有該電子商務客戶，國內銷量增長會是多少？

So certainly, on the first point around the RPP growth rate, I think when you take a look at the second quarter, you do have to remember, the comp is a big issue in the second quarter. And we did see quite a shift from Q1 to Q2. As we go into Q3 and Q4, we do expect the growth rate to moderate -- sorry, the negative growth rate to moderate. So it will improve to about negative 1.4% in the third quarter, negative 0.4% in the fourth quarter, and that will continue to improve as we go through the back half.

因此，當然，關於 RPP 成長率的第一點，我認為當您查看第二季度時，您必須記住，比較是第二季度的一個大問題。我們確實看到從第一季到第二季發生了很大的轉變。當我們進入第三季和第四季時，我們確實預期成長率將會放緩——抱歉，負成長率將會放緩。因此，第三季將改善至負 1.4% 左右，第四季為負 0.4%，隨著下半年的到來，這一情況將繼續改善。

There's a couple of things that are going on there. One is we absolutely have line of sight to new customers that are going to be coming on that normalize the mix of volume that we have. And also, we have seen the wave of these kind of new entrants come into the market, and the volume levels are stabilized. And we're working with those customers on what those forecasts look like in the back half, so we have better line of sight to that.

那裡正在發生一些事情。一是我們絕對能夠看到即將出現的新客戶，從而使我們擁有的銷售組合正常化。而且，我們已經看到此類新進入者的浪潮進入市場，並且成交量水平已經穩定。我們正在與這些客戶合作研究下半年的預測，因此我們對此有更好的了解。

Related to your second question, we invited these customers into our network. I think the idea of what they would look like if they weren't there, it doesn't really matter, right? Because they are, they're there. We found a way to make this volume very efficient within our network. And look, we'll continue to grow in the places of the market that are growing faster.

關於你的第二個問題，我們邀請這些客戶加入我們的人脈。我認為如果他們不在那裡的話，他們會是什麼樣子，這並不重要，對吧？因為他們就在那裡，他們就在那裡。我們找到了一種方法，可以使該卷在我們的網路中非常有效率。看，我們將繼續在成長更快的市場領域實現成長。

And just on the line-of-sight question, we've really tightened up the visibility as to when we win an account versus when it actually comes into the network. I will say we -- our visibility there wasn't as sharp as it should have been, so we've gotten much better now. And we are holding everyone accountable for getting the cardboard onto the package car. And that makes a -- well, it may not be cardboard, it may be a poly bag, but the package on to package car. So I feel much better than I have over the past several years, candidly, in terms of our visibility on onboarding.

就視線問題而言，我們確實提高了我們何時贏得帳戶與何時實際進入網路的可見性。我會說我們——我們在那裡的能見度沒有應有的那麼清晰，所以我們現在已經好多了。我們要求每個人都有責任將紙板裝上包裝車。這就形成了——嗯，它可能不是紙板，它可能是一個塑膠袋，而是包裝汽車的包裝。因此，坦白說，就我們在入職方面的可見度而言，我感覺比過去幾年好多了。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

布萊恩‧奧森貝克，摩根大通。

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Carol, following up on the pipeline. You mentioned that several times in terms of the visibility, the types of customers, the confidence coming through there. Maybe you can elaborate on that last comment, given just how that one large customer or e-commerce customer surprised the upside, and volumes blew up. And then separately, can you give us an update on the USPS contract, how it's going so far, any surprises and whether or not that was a big contributor to the updated '24 guide? Thank you.

早安.感謝您提出問題。卡羅爾正在跟進管道。您多次提到了知名度、客戶類型和信心方面的問題。考慮到一位大客戶或電子商務客戶如何令人驚訝的上漲以及交易量的爆炸式增長，也許您可以詳細說明最後的評論。然後，您能否分別向我們介紹 USPS 合約的最新情況、到目前為止進展如何、有什麼意外情況以及這是否對更新的 24 小時指南做出了重大貢獻？謝謝。

Yes. So to be perfectly clear, there were two new e-commerce customers that came into our network. And you can imagine who they are. These are new e-commerce shippers in the United States whose volume has been quite explosive. We are working through those relationships as we speak. As it relates to the USPS, Nando, would you like to comment on how that's going?

是的。需要明確的是，有兩個新的電子商務客戶進入了我們的網路。你可以想像他們是誰。這些都是美國新興的電商托運商，其體量相當爆炸性。正如我們所說，我們正在處理這些關係。由於這與美國郵政局有關，Nando，您想評論一下進展如何嗎？

Yeah, sure. I think because with regard to the USPS, both teams are actually face-to-face planning and executing so far close to 50% of the change. And we'll continue pushing forward. We'll be fully implemented in terms of the UPS network in place to serve the USPS on September 8 and contract really starts officially 10/1, where we'll see the -- all of the volume come over to UPS. So far, in recognition of two parties getting together for the first time in this regard, there's been some bumps but nothing systemic. So it's working out really well on both sides, professionals from the USPS and UPS, really doing some good work there.

好，當然。我認為是因為對於 USPS，兩個團隊實際上都是面對面規劃和執行迄今為止接近 50% 的變更。我們將繼續前進。我們將在 9 月 8 日全面實施 UPS 網絡，為 USPS 提供服務，合約將於 10 月 1 日正式開始，屆時我們將看到——所有的貨物量都將轉交給 UPS。到目前為止，兩黨在這方面第一次聚在一起，雖然有一些障礙，但沒有系統性的。因此，雙方的合作都非常順利，來自 USPS 和 UPS 的專業人員確實做了一些出色的工作。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

康納·坎寧安，Melius 研究中心。

Hi everyone. Thank you. I was hoping you could provide some color just on revenue contribution for Estafeta and then maybe price paid. And then just bigger picture, how you're viewing the M&A landscape now. Are you happy with the portfolio? How are the returns of the businesses that you have or are acquiring holding up right now? Thank you.

大家好。謝謝。我希望您能提供一些有關 Estafeta 的收入貢獻以及支付的價格的資訊。然後是更大的圖景，您現在如何看待併購格局。您對這個投資組合滿意嗎？您目前擁有或正在收購的業務的回報情況如何？謝謝。

So we're super excited about the Estafeta announcement. Acquiring companies in Mexico isn't easy. The team has worked very hard to get us to this point, and we'll work through all the closing conditions. We hope to have the acquisition closed by the end of the year. Together, UPS and Estafeta will be a $1 billion-plus business. So this firmly cements our leadership position in North America, and we couldn't be more excited about it. Would you want to take the second part of the question?

因此，我們對 Estafeta 的宣布感到非常興奮。收購墨西哥的公司並不容易。為了讓我們走到這一步，團隊付出了很大的努力，我們將解決所有的關閉條件。我們希望在今年年底前完成收購。 UPS 和 Estafeta 的業務合計價值將超過 10 億美元。因此，這牢牢鞏固了我們在北美的領導地位，我們對此感到非常興奮。您想回答問題的第二部分嗎？

Yeah, certainly. And then, Kate, maybe you want to talk about the broader piece of it. But I think Estafeta, just to give you a little bit of context, it covers 95% of the population in Mexico with 145 facilities. So this is a fairly large business. It does about 325,000 pieces a day. So it gives you context of where it fits into the portfolio. And it fits very firmly than our near-shoring strategy. And Kate, do you want to add anything on that?

是的，當然。然後，凱特，也許你想談談更廣泛的部分。但我認為 Estafeta，只是為了向您提供一些背景信息，它擁有 145 個設施，覆蓋了墨西哥 95% 的人口。所以這是一個相當大的生意。每天大約生產 325,000 件。因此，它為您提供了它在投資組合中的位置背景。它比我們的近岸戰略更加契合。凱特，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yeah, absolutely. So think about, first of all, that 300,000 pieces, all those shippers. They need a transporter, a cross-border solution that is quality and that has access to the best small package network in the US. That's what we give. So it's the additional packages.

是的，絕對是。所以先想想那 30 萬件，所有那些托運人。他們需要一個運輸商，一個高品質的跨境解決方案，並且可以使用美國最好的小包裹網路。這就是我們所給予的。所以這是附加包。

I'll answer that other part of the question on our track record with the acquisitions. If you look back at Marken, also Bomi, onto MNX, all of them are meeting their business cases as well as their synergy both on the revenue and cost side of the equation. Because what it does is opens up again this end-to-end opportunity to these premium customers. We expect the same thing we are ahead of the supply chain shift into Mexico. Our supply chain cross-border business is up double digit. So this will only help with Estafeta as well.

我將回答有關我們收購記錄的問題的其他部分。如果您回顧 Marken、Bomi 和 MNX，您會發現它們都滿足其業務案例以及在收入和成本方面的協同作用。因為它所做的就是再次為這些優質客戶提供端到端的機會。我們預計，在供應鏈轉移到墨西哥之前，我們也會發生同樣的事情。我們的供應鏈跨境業務成長了兩位數。所以這只會對 Estafeta 有所幫助。

And I know you asked about the purchase price. We typically won't disclose the purchase price, but I can give you a hint. Brian said that we accessed the debt capital markets in the second quarter and raised some additional debt capital for growth. It's about $1.2 billion. We're not spending $1.2 billion on the business. So that gives you a sense of where the purchase price is going to be.

我知道你問過購買價格。我們通常不會透露購買價格，但我可以給你一個提示。布萊恩表示，我們在第二季進入了債務資本市場，並籌集了一些額外的債務資本以促進成長。大約是12億美元。我們不會在這項業務上花費 12 億美元。這樣您就可以了解購買價格的情況。

That's right.

這是正確的。

And in terms of the portfolio of assets that we have, we looked at strategic alternatives for Coyote. We are delighted to reach an agreement with RXO to sell Coyote to that business at a great value, higher than our carrying value, and the multiple on EBITDA was over 12 times. So I was really pleased with the value that we received or will receive when we close that transaction. And we're always looking at the portfolio of assets, are there other things that we can optimize or monetize? So we're never done. But there's nothing large that would need to be talked about today.

就我們擁有的資產組合而言，我們研究了 Coyote 的策略替代方案。我們很高興與 RXO 達成協議，以高於我們帳面價值的高價將 Coyote 出售給該業務，且 EBITDA 倍數超過 12 倍。因此，我對我們在完成該交易時收到或將收到的價值感到非常滿意。我們一直在關注資產組合，還有其他我們可以優化或貨幣化的東西嗎？所以我們永遠不會完成。但今天沒有什麼大事需要討論。

Stephen, we have time for one more question.

史蒂芬，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯科姆專業，薩斯奎哈納。

Thanks for taking my questions. If you go back to the trade down discussion in the SurePost, can you talk a little bit high level about how that business moves through your network? And what's different about it that better matches the cost of that package with the lower yield for that package? And just extending that a little bit further, if SurePost is a higher mix of the domestic business than you'd expected longer term, what nuance changes would there need to be with the network to make that a better fit? Thank you.

感謝您回答我的問題。如果您回到 SurePost 中關於降價交易的討論，您能否從高層次談談該業務如何透過您的網路進行轉移？它有什麼不同之處，可以更好地匹配該封裝的成本與該封裝的較低產量？再進一步延伸一下，如果 SurePost 的國內業務組合比您長期預期的要高，那麼網路需要進行哪些細微的改變才能使其更好地適應？謝謝。

Well, SurePost is a great product in many ways. As I mentioned, it is a Sunday solution for us, and we are, with our matching algorithm, able to redirect volume. So it's delivered in our ground network. Maybe, Nando, you want to give a little bit more color at how does that work?

嗯，SurePost 在很多方面都是一個很棒的產品。正如我所提到的，這對我們來說是周日的解決方案，我們能夠透過我們的匹配演算法來重定向音量。所以它是在我們的地面網絡中傳遞的。也許，Nando，你想進一步說明它是如何運作的？

Yeah, sure. And as Brian mentioned earlier, I mean, SurePost is going to flow through our network, regular feeders, regular hubs, sortation. What we're working on and very close to solving is looking ahead more than one day so we can match even more of those SurePost shipments. So right now, if a package shows up at a destination, that particular morning, we will match that package with other deliveries for that day.

好，當然。正如布萊恩之前提到的，我的意思是，SurePost 將流經我們的網路、常規饋送器、常規樞紐和分類。我們正在努力並且即將解決的問題是展望未來一天以上，以便我們可以匹配更多的 SurePost 發貨。因此，現在，如果包裹在當天早上出現在目的地，我們會將該包裹與當天的其他遞送進行匹配。

The option moving forward is to look for additional matching opportunities, and we're very close to that solution so we can actually look further out. In total, as I said before, we're matching a lot more, about 3% more than last year. And each one is offsetting the cost and providing profitability to that shipment or that delivery, if you will, to that one location.

前進的選擇是尋找額外的匹配機會，我們非常接近該解決方案，因此我們實際上可以進一步尋找。總的來說，正如我之前所說，我們的配對數量要多得多，比去年增加了約 3%。每一項都抵消了成本，並為該批貨物或交付（如果您願意的話）到該地點提供盈利能力。

So that matching capability then creates more delivery density, which is a big value unlock for us. We've talked about it in the past, every 10 basis points of improvement is a couple of hundred million dollars. So this is an important initiative to make this product even more attractive to us over time.

因此，匹配能力可以創造更高的交付密度，這對我們來說是一個巨大的價值釋放。我們過去談過，每改進10個基點就是幾億美元。因此，這是一項重要舉措，可以讓該產品隨著時間的推移對我們更具吸引力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I would now like to turn the conference back over to our host, Mr. Guido. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議轉交給我們的房東吉多先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Stephen. This concludes our call. Thank you for joining and have a good day.

謝謝你，史蒂芬。我們的通話到此結束。感謝您的加入，祝您有美好的一天。