聯合包裹運送服務公司 (UPS) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Steven, and I will be your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the UPS Investor Relations Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. P.J. Guido, Investor Relations Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

早安.我叫史蒂文，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。歡迎大家參加 UPS 投資者關係 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）現在我很高興將發言權交給東道主投資者關係官 P.J. Guido 先生。先生，地板是你的了。

Good morning, and welcome to the UPS Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Carol Tome, our CEO; Brian Newman, our CFO; and a few additional members of our executive leadership team. Before we begin, I want to remind you that some of the comments we'll make today are forward-looking statements within the federal securities laws and address our expectations for the future performance or operating results of our company. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are described in our 2022 Form 10-K and other reports we file with or furnished to, the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports, when filed, are available on the UPS Investor Relations website and from the SEC. Unless stated otherwise, our discussion refers to adjusted results. For the third quarter of 2023, that results include an after-tax charge of $219 million or $0.26 per diluted share, comprised of a onetime payment of $46 million to certain U.S.-based nonunion part-time supervisors. Transformation and other charges of $70 million and noncash goodwill impairment charges of $103 million.

早上好，歡迎參加 UPS 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的執行長 Carol Tome；布萊恩紐曼，我們的財務長；以及我們執行領導團隊的一些其他成員。在開始之前，我想提醒您，我們今天發表的一些評論是聯邦證券法範圍內的前瞻性陳述，涉及我們對公司未來業績或經營業績的預期。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交或提供的 2022 年 10-K 表以及其他報告中進行了描述。這些報告提交後可在 UPS 投資者關係網站和 SEC 上取得。除非另有說明，我們的討論指的是調整後的結果。 2023 年第三季的業績包括 2.19 億美元或稀釋後每股 0.26 美元的稅後費用，其中包括向某些美國非工會兼職監管人員一次性支付 4,600 萬美元。轉型和其他費用為 7,000 萬美元，非現金商譽減損費用為 1.03 億美元。

A reconciliation to GAAP financial results is available on the UPS Investor Relations website along with the webcast of today's call. (Operator Instructions) And now I'll turn the call over to Carol.

UPS 投資者關係網站上提供了 GAAP 財務業績的調節表以及今天電話會議的網路廣播。 （操作員說明）現在我將把電話轉給卡羅爾。

Thank you, P.J., and good morning. Let me begin by thanking UPSers for their hard work and efforts. Our U.S. labor contract wasn't fully ratified until early September. And I'm proud of our UPSers for staying focused during the entire labor negotiation and for providing industry-leading service to our customers. We expect the conditions in the third quarter to be challenging and they were. The global macro environment remained weak with some countries in recession, which pressured international and freight forwarding volumes. And in the U.S., labor uncertainty negatively impacted volume for most of the quarter. From a demand perspective, August proved to be the most challenging as some customers waited for the ratification of our Teamster contract before returning volume to our network. Since contract ratification, we've been gaining volume momentum.

謝謝你，P.J.，早安。首先，我要感謝 UPS 員工的辛勤工作和努力。我們的美國勞動合約直到九月初才完全批准。我為我們的 UPS 員工在整個勞資談判期間保持專注並為客戶提供領先業界的服務感到自豪。我們預計第三季的情況將充滿挑戰，事實也確實如此。全球宏觀環境依然疲軟，有些國家陷入衰退，這對國際和貨運量帶來壓力。在美國，勞動力不確定性對本季大部分時間的銷售產生了負面影響。從需求角度來看，八月被證明是最具挑戰性的，因為一些客戶在將流量返回到我們的網路之前等待我們的卡車司機合約的批准。自合約批准以來，我們一直在獲得銷量成長勢頭。

We exited the last week of September with U.S. average daily volume, or ADV, down 7.4%, a marked improvement from the rest of the quarter. Our salespeople have produced record results from the combination of win backs and new customers. To date, we've won back roughly $600,000 ADV of diverted volume, and we are working to win back all diverted volumes by the end of the year.

9 月最後一周，美國日均成交量 (ADV) 下降 7.4%，較本季剩餘時間明顯改善。我們的銷售人員透過贏回和新客戶的結合創造了創紀錄的業績。到目前為止，我們已經贏回了大約 60 萬美元的日轉量，我們正在努力在年底之前贏回所有轉接量。

And looking at our sales pipeline, we are pulling through new customers that value our superior on-time performance and want to come to UPS prior to the busy peak holiday season. Moving to our financial results. Our third quarter performance well down considerably from last year, was in line with our expectations and factored in both the timing of contract ratification and higher labor costs resulting from the new labor contracts. Consolidated revenue in the third quarter was $21.1 billion, down 12.8% compared to last year. Operating profit was $1.6 billion, a decrease of 48.7% from last year and consolidated operating margin was 7.7%. Brian will provide more details on our performance in a moment.

從我們的銷售管道來看，我們正在吸引新客戶，他們重視我們卓越的準時表現，並希望在繁忙的假期旺季之前來到 UPS。轉向我們的財務表現。我們第三季的業績較去年大幅下降，符合我們的預期，並考慮到合約批准的時間和新勞動合約導致的更高的勞動力成本。第三季綜合營收為211億美元，較去年同期下降12.8%。營業利益為 16 億美元，比去年下降 48.7%，綜合營業利益率為 7.7%。 Brian 稍後將提供有關我們表現的更多詳細資訊。

With the third quarter behind us, we are laser focused on restoring volume in our network and executing our strategy to deliver shareowner value. So let me turn to our strategic update. Our customer-first people-led innovation-driven strategy is enabling us to stay focused on our core business and invest to grow in the most attractive parts of the market like health care and with SMB.

隨著第三季的過去，我們專注於恢復網路數量並執行我們的策略以提供股東價值。那麼讓我談談我們的策略更新。我們以客戶至上、以人為本、創新驅動的策略使我們能夠專注於我們的核心業務，並投資於市場中最具吸引力的部分（例如醫療保健和中小型企業）的成長。

Starting with customer first. Under our better and bolder framework, we recently announced 2 acquisitions that will further drive growth in health care logistics and an end-to-end return solution. One of our strategic objectives is to become the #1 complex health care logistics provider in the world, and we are making bold moves to get us there. Last year's acquisition of Bomi and our recently announced pending acquisition of MNX Global Logistics are 2 examples of bold moves in health care. MNX is an industry leader in time-critical and temperature-sensitive logistics, tailor-made for the complex needs of global health care. By combining MNX with UPS Express Critical and our global integrated network, we will enhance the speed and reliability of our health care portfolio. With MMX, UPS will be able to reach new health care markets like in Asia and new customers like the radiopharmaceutical sector.

從客戶至上開始。在我們更好、更大膽的框架下，我們最近宣布了兩項收購，這將進一步推動醫療保健物流和端到端退貨解決方案的成長。我們的策略目標之一是成為世界第一的綜合醫療保健物流提供者，我們正在採取大膽的行動來實現這一目標。去年收購波密和我們最近宣布即將收購 MNX Global Logistics 是醫療保健領域大膽舉措的兩個例子。 MNX 是時間關鍵和溫度敏感物流的行業領導者，專為全球醫療保健的複雜需求量身定制。透過將 MNX 與 UPS Express Critical 以及我們的全球整合網路結合，我們將提高醫療保健產品組合的速度和可靠性。借助 MMX，UPS 將能夠進入亞洲等新的醫療保健市場以及放射性製藥行業等新客戶。

To further support our health care strategy, this year, we've opened 7 dedicated health care facilities in Europe and in the U.S. And the acquisition of Bomi further strengthened our health care footprint in Europe and Latin America. Since 2020, we have more than doubled our health care distribution space globally. These efforts and more are keeping us on track to reach our $10 billion health care revenue target this year, and we're just getting started.

為了進一步支持我們的醫療保健策略，今年，我們在歐洲和美國開設了 7 家專門的醫療保健機構，收購波密進一步加強了我們在歐洲和拉丁美洲的醫療保健足跡。自 2020 年以來，我們的全球醫療保健分銷空間增加了一倍以上。這些努力以及更多努力使我們有望實現今年 100 億美元的醫療保健收入目標，而我們才剛剛開始。

Turning to returns. With the explosion of e-commerce demand, our returns business has been a key area of growth over the last several years. What we've seen over this time is an increasing desire on the part of both our customers and our recipients for a frictionless and simple end-to-end returns experience. We've been building out this experience, but to help us get there faster, we just entered into an agreement to acquire Happy Returns, a technology-focused company that enables frictionless no-box no label return. By combining Happy Returns, easy digital experience and established drop-off points with UPS' small package network and footprint of close to 5,200 UPS store locations. Box free label-free returns will soon be available at more than 12,000 convenient locations in the U.S., but our plans for returns don't stop at convenience.

轉向回報。隨著電子商務需求的爆炸性成長，我們的退貨業務在過去幾年中一直是成長的關鍵領域。這段時間我們看到，我們的客戶和收件者都越來越渴望獲得無摩擦、簡單的端到端退貨體驗。我們一直在打造這種體驗，但為了幫助我們更快地實現這一目標，我們剛剛簽訂了收購Happy Returns 的協議，這是一家專注於技術的公司，可實現無摩擦、無盒子、無標籤退貨。透過將快樂退貨、輕鬆的數位體驗和既定的投遞點與 UPS 的小包裹網路以及近 5,200 個 UPS 商店的覆蓋範圍相結合。美國 12,000 多個便利地點很快就會提供無盒無標籤退貨服務，但我們的退貨計劃不會止於便利。

For our enterprise retail customers, we plan to provide a consolidated return solution that will lower their costs and improve their experience. And for UPS, Happy Returns expands our returns portfolio with an innovative solution that will generate profitable B2B volume and help drive pickup and delivery density. For us, customer first isn't just about growth. It's about meeting customer needs.

對於我們的企業零售客戶，我們計劃提供統一的退貨解決方案，以降低他們的成本並改善他們的體驗。對於 UPS 而言，Happy Returns 透過創新解決方案擴展了我們的退貨產品組合，該解決方案將產生可獲利的 B2B 業務量，並有助於提高取貨和投遞密度。對我們來說，客戶至上不僅僅是成長。這是為了滿足客戶的需求。

To that end, we are continuing to improve the delivery experience with the expansion of UPS delivery photo. 92% of our residential stocks globally include a photo that shows exactly where the package was delivered. Not only does delivery photo provide peace of mind to recipient, but we get fewer calls about missing packages. With delivery photo, UP has seen a reduction in U.S. delivery-related support request of more than 15%. We are also harnessing our data to deliver more agile and targeted products that meet our customers' needs. Our latest example is a new product we call hyperlocal, which leverages the footprint of our U.S. facilities to provide select customers with a fast, next-day delivery option within a metro area.

為此，我們正在透過擴展 UPS 投遞照片來持續改善投遞體驗。我們全球 92% 的住宅庫存都附有一張照片，可準確顯示包裹的投遞地點。送貨照片不僅讓收件人安心，而且我們接到的有關包裹遺失的電話也減少了。透過送貨照片，UP 發現美國與送貨相關的支援請求減少了 15% 以上。我們也利用我們的數據來提供更敏捷、更有針對性的產品，以滿足客戶的需求。我們最新的例子是一個我們稱為「超本地化」的新產品，它利用我們美國工廠的佔地面積，為特定客戶在都市區內提供快速的隔日送達選項。

Hyperlocal enables us to capture new profitable B2C and B2B volume and was launched in October as a new service offering. Let me quickly touch on DAP, our digital access program. We are continuing to grow SMB volume with that. In the third quarter, we launched 10 new partners in time for fees. In the first 9 months of this year, we generated $2.1 billion in GAAP revenue, and we expect to deliver $3 billion in GAAP revenue for the year.

Hyperlocal 讓我們能夠獲得新的 B2C 和 B2B 盈利量，並於 10 月作為新服務產品推出。讓我快速談談 DAP，我們的數位存取計劃。我們將繼續增加中小型企業的數量。第三季度，我們及時推出了 10 個新的收費合作夥伴。今年前 9 個月，我們實現了 21 億美元的 GAAP 收入，今年預計將實現 30 億美元的 GAAP 收入。

Let's turn to innovation-driven. UPS has been a technology company since our founding, and we are adding transformative technology in our operations that will increase efficiency and improve the employee experience. Smart Package, Smart Facility, our RFID solution is one way we're driving efficiency. And I'm pleased that we are wrapping up our Phase 1 rollout in our U.S. facility. The improvements we are seeing in our preload operations are even better than we expected, with nearly 200 of our buildings seeing this low rates in 1 and 2,500 packages or better. Deployment of Phase 2 is already underway, which equips our packaged cars with RFID readers. Over time, this will allow us to virtually scan smart packages during pickup and eliminate delivery scans during bulk delivery stuff, both of which will enhance customer visibility and make our drivers more efficient. Another example of transformative technology is robotics. Specifically, starting the supply chain solutions. We are implementing robotic unload technology inside our trailers to unloaned packages more efficiently.

讓我們轉向創新驅動。 UPS 自成立以來一直是一家技術公司，我們正在營運中添加變革性技術，以提高效率並改善員工體驗。智慧包裝、智慧設施，我們的 RFID 解決方案是我們提高效率的一種方式。我很高興我們正在美國工廠完成第一階段的部署。我們在預載作業中看到的改進甚至比我們預期的還要好，我們的近 200 座建築物在 1 和 2,500 包或更好的包中看到瞭如此低的費率。第二階段的部署已經開始，為我們的整車配備 RFID 讀取器。隨著時間的推移，這將使我們能夠在取貨過程中虛擬掃描智慧包裹，並消除批量送貨過程中的送貨掃描，這兩者都將提高客戶的可見性並提高我們的司機的效率。變革性技術的另一個例子是機器人技術。具體來說，啟動供應鏈解決方案。我們正在拖車內實施機器人卸載技術，以更有效地卸載包裹。

These robots navigate the inside of a trailer and can unload multiple box types and sizes autonomously. Now it's still early days with this technology, but we are seeing many opportunities to further expand the use of robotics across our network. Turning to the fourth quarter. We are preparing for peak. Over the past 5 years, our service during peak has been better than our closest competitor by an average of 310 basis points. Service matters all the time, but especially at peak.

這些機器人在拖車內部導航，可以自主卸載多種類型和尺寸的盒子。現在這項技術還處於早期階段，但我們看到了許多進一步擴大機器人在我們網路中的使用的機會。轉向第四季。我們正在為高峰做準備。在過去 5 年裡，我們在高峰期的服務比最接近的競爭對手平均好 310 個基點。服務始終很重要，尤其是在尖峰時段。

So to prepare, we are collaborating with customers on volume projections and the timing of their promotion. We will also leverage technology like our network planning tools to control how the volume comes in, utilize available capacity and adjust the network to operate as efficiently as possible. Regarding peak hiring, our people-led strategy enables greater flexibility to serve our customers during the holiday rush. For example, our experience part-time employees and now become seasonal support driver. This enables them to deliver packages using their own vehicles before or after their regular shift. In addition, we plan to hire over 100,000 seasonal employees to help process and deliver holiday volume.

因此，為了做好準備，我們正在與客戶就銷售預測和促銷時間進行合作。我們還將利用網路規劃工具等技術來控制流量的進入方式、利用可用容量並調整網路以盡可能有效地運作。關於高峰招聘，我們以人為本的策略可以在假期高峰期間更靈活地為客戶提供服務。例如，我們經驗豐富的兼職員工現在成為季節性支援司機。這使他們能夠在正常輪班之前或之後使用自己的車輛運送包裹。此外，我們計劃僱用超過 100,000 名季節性員工來幫助處理和交付假期銷售。

This year, we've made it even easier and faster to apply for a job as we shortened the digital process to less than 20 minutes, consuming out an online application to receiving a job offer. Regarding our financial outlook, we made changes based on what we are seeing in the market. We still expect to have healthy peak volume in the fourth quarter. But based on what appears to be slowing demand in all business segments, we are revising our guidance accordingly. Brian will share more detail in a moment.

今年，我們將數位化流程縮短至不到 20 分鐘，從線上申請到收到工作機會，求職變得更加輕鬆快速。關於我們的財務前景，我們根據市場狀況做出了改變。我們仍然預計第四季度將出現健康的峰值銷售。但鑑於所有業務領域的需求似乎都在放緩，我們正在相應地修改我們的指導意見。布萊恩稍後將分享更多細節。

Back in January, I said that 2023 would be a year of resilience and it has been. Our founder, Jim Casey said, determined people working together can do anything. During the year, we accelerated the deployment of Smart Package, Smart Facility and made strategic acquisitions to grow in the best parts of the market. We delivered a labor agreement that provides certainty for the next 5 years. We are operating with (inaudible) speed and agility, controlling what we can control, and we are staying on strategy. With that, thank you for listening. And now I'll turn the call over to Brian.

早在 1 月份，我就說過 2023 年將是充滿韌性的一年，而且確實如此。我們的創辦人吉姆凱西 (Jim Casey) 表示，只要有決心的人齊心協力就可以做任何事。這一年裡，我們加快了智慧套餐、智慧設施的部署，並進行了策略性收購，以在市場最好的領域實現成長。我們簽署了一份勞工協議，為未來 5 年提供了確定性。我們以（聽不清楚）的速度和敏捷性運作，控制我們能控制的事情，我們堅持戰略。在此，感謝您的聆聽。現在我將把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thanks, Carol, and good morning. In my comments today, I'll cover 4 areas. I'll start with the macro followed by our third quarter results. Next, I'll cover cash and shareowner returns, then I'll provide detail around our updated guidance. The macro environment in the third quarter was challenging. The weakness we saw in the second quarter continued into the third quarter, especially in Asia and Europe.

謝謝，卡羅爾，早安。在今天的評論中，我將涵蓋 4 個領域。我將從宏觀開始，然後是我們的第三季業績。接下來，我將介紹現金和股東回報，然後我將提供有關更新指南的詳細資訊。第三季的宏觀環境充滿挑戰。我們在第二季度看到的疲軟持續到第三季度，特別是在亞洲和歐洲。

Real exports and industrial production moved lower due to falling demand and global consumer conditions did not significantly change. In the U.S., we faced tough conditions due to several factors. To begin, the volume diversion we experienced in the second quarter continued into the third quarter, which led to more volume diversions than we anticipated. Next, some customers that diverted waited until our Teamster contract was fully ratified in September before returning volume to our network. And lastly, we incurred higher labor costs associated with the new contract and added headcount earlier than normal to ramp up for peak so that we can ensure we maintain our industry-leading service levels. Through the end of the quarter, we adjusted our integrated network to support our customers' needs, managed cost and stayed focused on bringing volume back into our network.

由於需求下降，實際出口和工業生產下降，而全球消費者狀況沒有顯著變化。在美國，由於多種因素，我們面臨艱難的條件。首先，我們在第二季度經歷的銷售轉移持續到第三季度，這導致銷售轉移超出了我們的預期。接下來，一些轉移的客戶等到我們的卡車司機合約在 9 月得到完全批准後才將流量返回到我們的網路。最後，我們因新合約而產生了更高的勞動力成本，並比正常情況更早增加了員工人數，以達到高峰，從而確保我們保持行業領先的服務水準。到本季末，我們調整了整合網絡，以滿足客戶的需求，管理成本，並繼續專注於將流量帶回我們的網路。

Looking at our financial results. For the quarter, consolidated revenue was $21.1 billion, down 12.8% from last year. Consolidated operating profit was $1.6 billion, down 48.7% compared to the same period last year. Consolidated operating margin was 7.7%. For the third quarter, diluted earnings per share was $1.57, down 47.5% from the same period last year. Now let's look at our business segments. In U.S. domestic, we knew the third quarter would be a challenge, and it was due to our labor negotiations, higher costs and a dynamic economic backdrop.

看看我們的財務表現。該季度綜合收入為 211 億美元，比去年下降 12.8%。綜合營業利潤為16億美元，比去年同期下降48.7%。綜合營業利益率為 7.7%。第三季攤薄後每股收益為1.57美元，較去年同期下降47.5%。現在讓我們看看我們的業務部門。在美國國內，我們知道第三季將是一個挑戰，這是由於我們的勞資談判、更高的成本和動態的經濟背景。

As we discussed on our last call, we ended the second quarter with average daily volume in June, down 12.2%. As contract negotiations became later and louder, we saw more volume diverse than we anticipated. August represented the low watermark when average daily volume was down 15.2% year-over-year. Post ratification, we exited the third quarter at half that rate, and we are continuing to see our week-over-week volume levels improve despite a challenging retail backdrop.

正如我們在上次電話會議中討論的那樣，第二季結束時，6 月的每日平均成交量下降了 12.2%。隨著合約談判變得越來越晚，聲音越來越大，我們看到的交易量比我們預期的更加多樣化。 8 月是低水位，日均成交量較去年同期下降 15.2%。批准後，我們以一半的速度退出了第三季度，儘管零售環境充滿挑戰，但我們仍繼續看到我們的每週銷售水平有所改善。

In the U.S., in the third quarter, average daily volume was down 11.5%. And we estimate the impact of volume diversion reduced our volume by approximately 1.5 million packages per day. Moving to mix. In the third quarter, we saw lower volumes across all industry sectors with the largest declines from retail and high tech. B2C average daily volume declined 13.4% compared to last year and B2B average daily volume was down 9%. In the third quarter, B2B represented 44% of our volume, which was an increase of 120 basis points from a year ago.

在美國，第三季日均交易量下降了 11.5%。我們估計，由於貨量轉移，我們每天的貨量減少了約 150 萬件包裹。移動到混合。第三季度，我們看到所有行業的銷量均有所下降，其中零售業和高科技行業的跌幅最大。 B2C 日均交易量較去年下降 13.4%，B2B 日均交易量下降 9%。第三季度，B2B 占我們交易量的 44%，比去年同期成長了 120 個基點。

Also in the third quarter, we continued to see customers shift volume out of the air onto the ground. Total air average daily volume was down 15.8% year-over-year, with about half of the decline coming from our largest customer as anticipated. Ground average daily volume was down 10.7%. In terms of customer mix, in the third quarter, SMBs, including platforms made up 28.5% of our total U.S. volume, an increase of 20 basis points year-over-year.

同樣在第三季度，我們繼續看到客戶將流量從空中轉移到地面。日均空氣總量年減 15.8%，其中約一半的下降量來自我們預期的最大客戶。地面日均交易量下降 10.7%。從客戶結構來看，第三季度，包括平台在內的中小企業占我們美國總客戶量的28.5%，較去年同期成長20個基點。

For the quarter, U.S. domestic generated revenue of $13.7 billion, down 11.1%. Despite lower volume, we remain disciplined on revenue quality. In the third quarter, revenue per piece increased 2%. Looking at the key drivers, the combination of strong base rates and improved customer and product mix increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 410 basis points. Changes in fuel prices decreased the revenue per piece growth rate by 190 basis points. The remaining 20 basis points of decline was driven by multiple factors, including package characteristics. Turning to costs. Total expense was down 5.1% in the third quarter. Compensation and benefits decreased the total expense growth rate by around 50 basis points. Total union wage rates were up 11.5% in the third quarter primarily driven by the contractual wage increase that went into effect on August 1.

本季美國國內收入為 137 億美元，下降 11.1%。儘管銷量下降，我們仍然嚴格遵守收入品質。第三季度，每件營收成長了2%。從關鍵驅動因素來看，強勁的基本費率以及改善的客戶和產品組合相結合，使每件收入成長率提高了 410 個基點。燃料價格的變化使每件收入成長率下降了 190 個基點。其餘 20 個基點的下降是由多種因素推動的，其中包括包裝特性。轉向成本。第三季總費用下降 5.1%。薪資和福利使總費用成長率下降了約 50 個基點。第三季工會總薪資上漲了 11.5%，主要是由於 8 月 1 日生效的合約薪資上漲所致。

Additionally, we began network preparations for peak. Offsetting the total increase in compensation and benefits, we leveraged our total service plan and network planning tools to reduce total hours in the third quarter by 11.4%. We reduced the expense growth rate for purchase transportation by around 190 basis points primarily from lower volume levels and our continued optimization efforts. Lower fuel costs contributed 170 basis points to the decrease in total expense growth rate. The net of all other expense items and allocations reduced the expense growth rate by 100 basis points. The U.S. Domestic segment delivered $665 million in operating profit, down 60.6% compared to the third quarter of 2022, and operating margin was 4.9%. Moving to our International segment. Macro conditions were uneven in the third quarter, with some regions of the world more challenged than others. Continued falling demand pressured Asia. And in Europe, consumers continue to contend with high inflation and tight financial conditions.

此外，我們也開始做好高峰期的網路準備。我們利用整體服務計畫和網路規劃工具，將第三季的總工作時間減少了 11.4%，抵銷了薪資和福利的總成長。我們將採購運輸費用成長率降低了約 190 個基點，主要是由於銷售量較低以及我們持續的最佳化努力。燃料成本下降導致總費用成長率下降 170 個基點。扣除所有其他費用項目和分配後，費用成長率降低了 100 個基點。美國國內業務實現營業利潤 6.65 億美元，較 2022 年第三季下降 60.6%，營業利益率為 4.9%。轉向我們的國際部分。第三季宏觀經濟狀況不平衡，世界某些地區面臨的挑戰比其他地區更大。需求持續下降給亞洲帶來壓力。在歐洲，消費者持續應對高通膨和緊張的金融狀況。

In response, we adjusted headcount and block hours and our global network to match changes in geographic demand. In the quarter, International total average daily volume was down 6.6% year-over-year. Nearly 3/4 of the decline came from lower domestic average daily volume, which was down 9.1% driven primarily by declines in Europe. On the export side, average daily volume declined 4.1% on a year-over-year basis. Looking at Asia, export average daily volume was down 8%.

作為回應，我們調整了員工人數、封鎖時間以及我們的全球網絡，以適應地理需求的變化。本季度，國際日均總交易量較去年同期下降 6.6%。近 3/4 的跌幅來自國內日均成交量下降，其中每日平均成交量下降 9.1%，主要是由於歐洲銷量下降。出口方面，日均成交量較去年同期下降4.1%。放眼亞洲，日均出口量下降8%。

And export volume on the China to U.S. lean, which is our most profitable lane was down 10.3% year-over-year. One bright spot was the Americas region, where export average daily volume grew 4.7% and led by Canada and Mexico, leveraging our cross-border ground service. In the third quarter, international revenue was $4.3 billion, which was down 11.1% from last year due to the decline in volume and a 1.4% reduction in revenue per piece. The decline in revenue per piece was driven by several factors. Lower fuel surcharge revenue contributed 230 basis points to the revenue per piece growth rate decrease. A reduction in demand-related surcharge revenue contributed 200 basis points to the decline. Partially offsetting the decline, multiple factors increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 290 basis points including strong base rates and a weaker U.S. dollar.

我們利潤最高的航線——中國至美國精益航線的出口量年減了 10.3%。美洲地區是一大亮點，利用我們的跨境地面服務，該地區日均出口量增長了 4.7%，其中加拿大和墨西哥領先。第三季度，國際營收為43億美元，由於銷量下降以及每件收入減少1.4%，較去年下降11.1%。每件收入的下降是由多個因素造成的。燃油附加費收入下降導致每件收入成長率下降 230 個基點。與需求相關的附加費收入減少導致下降 200 個基點。多種因素（包括強勁的基本利率和美元疲軟）使每件營收成長率提高了 290 個基點，部分抵消了下降的影響。

Moving to costs. In the third quarter, total international cost was down $203 million, primarily driven by lower fuel expense. In response to lower demand, we adjusted our integrated network and cut costs, which included reducing international block hours by 13.9% compared to last year and reducing headcount in operations and overhead functions by a total of 2,300 positions.

轉向成本。第三季度，國際總成本下降了 2.03 億美元，主要是因為燃料費用下降。為了因應需求下降，我們調整了綜合網路並削減了成本，其中包括與去年相比將國際航線運行時間減少了 13.9%，並減少了營運和管理職能部門的員工總數 2,300 個職位。

And we did all of this while continuing to deliver excellent service to our customers. Operating profit in the International segment was $675 million. down $329 million year-over-year, which included a $98 million reduction in demand-related surcharge revenue. Operating margin in the third quarter was 15.8%. Now looking at Supply Chain Solutions. In the third quarter, revenue was $3.1 billion, down $854 million year-over-year.

我們在做到這一切的同時，繼續為客戶提供優質的服務。國際部門的營業利潤為 6.75 億美元。年比減少 3.29 億美元，其中與需求相關的附加費收入減少 9,800 萬美元。第三季營業利益率為15.8%。現在來看看供應鏈解決方案。第三季營收為 31 億美元，年減 8.54 億美元。

Looking at the key drivers, let's start with Ford. In international air freight, softer global demand and lower volume resulted in a decline in revenue and operating profit. On the Ocean side, demand flipped positive driven by the retail sector and generated volume growth. However, excess market capacity pressured revenue and operating profit. In response to the dynamic forwarding market, we cut operating costs. Within forwarding, our truckload brokerage unit continued to face pressure from excess capacity in the market which drove revenue and operating profit down.

看看關鍵的驅動因素，讓我們從福特開始。在國際航空貨運方面，全球需求疲軟和貨運量下降導致收入和營業利潤下降。在海洋方面，在零售業的推動下，需求出現積極變化，並產生了銷售成長。然而，市場容量過剩對收入和營業利潤造成壓力。為了因應動態的貨運市場，我們削減了營運成本。在貨運代理方面，我們的整車經紀部門持續面臨市場運力過剩的壓力，導致收入和營業利潤下降。

Logistics delivered revenue and operating profit growth. In the third quarter, Supply Chain Solutions generated operating profit of $275 million and an operating margin of 8.8%. Walking through the rest of the income statement, we had $199 million of interest expense. Our other pension income was $66 million, and our effective tax rate for the third quarter was 12.6%, which benefited from certain discrete items, including tax credits and global audit resolutions.

物流帶來了收入和營業利潤的成長。第三季度，供應鏈解決方案實現營業利潤 2.75 億美元，營業利益率為 8.8%。瀏覽損益表的其餘部分，我們有 1.99 億美元的利息支出。我們的其他退休金收入為 6,600 萬美元，第三季的有效稅率為 12.6%，這得益於某些離散項目，包括稅收抵免和全球審計決議。

Now let's turn to cash and shareowner returns. Year-to-date, we generated $7.8 billion in cash from operations, and free cash flow was $4.9 billion. And so far this year, UPS has paid $4 billion in dividends and we've completed $2.25 billion in share buybacks. Now I'll share a few comments about our outlook. We expected 2023 to be a bumpy year and it has been. We've navigated record high inflation. rising interest rates, disruptions in China, a war in Eastern Europe, now a humanitarian crisis in Israel and Gaza and the disruption around our U.S. labor negotiations.

現在讓我們轉向現金和股東回報。年初至今，我們的營運現金為 78 億美元，自由現金流為 49 億美元。今年到目前為止，UPS 已支付了 40 億美元的股息，並完成了 22.5 億美元的股票回購。現在我將分享一些關於我們的前景的評論。我們預期 2023 年將是坎坷的一年，事實也確實如此。我們已經度過了創紀錄的高通膨。利率上升、中國的混亂、東歐的戰爭、現在以色列和加薩的人道危機以及美國勞工談判的中斷。

Through all of this, we remain focused on controlling what we can control and are continuing to adjust the network to match volume levels and deliver industry-leading service to our customers. Since our last earnings call, the global demand environment has slowed and macroeconomic conditions remain challenging.

透過這一切，我們仍然專注於控制我們可以控制的事情，並繼續調整網路以匹配流量水平，並為我們的客戶提供業界領先的服務。自上次財報電話會議以來，全球需求環境已經放緩，宏觀經濟狀況仍充滿挑戰。

As a result, we've lowered our full year guidance and have provided a range to reflect the uncertainty in the market. We now expect consolidated revenue to be between $91.3 billion and $92.3 billion and consolidated operating margin to be between 10.8% and 11.3%. Let me walk you through our assumptions for the guidance range. In the U.S., we are winning back volume at a rapid pace, but we've also seen demand softness due to several factors with many of our customers who did not divert. Additionally, while consumer spending has been resilient in 2023, headwinds are mounting for the consumer in the fourth quarter. And looking at estimates for holiday retail sales this year, increases range from over 4% to 12%. Moving to international. A further downturn in exports and lower consumer spending in some of the largest European markets, including Germany and the U.K., are negatively impacting volume and exports on our most profitable trade lane, which is China to the U.S., are not improving at the pace we had expected.

因此，我們降低了全年指導，並提供了一個範圍來反映市場的不確定性。我們現在預計綜合收入將在 913 億美元至 923 億美元之間，綜合營業利潤率將在 10.8% 至 11.3% 之間。讓我向您介紹我們對指導範圍的假設。在美國，我們正在快速奪回銷量，但由於許多因素沒有轉移，我們也看到需求疲軟。此外，雖然 2023 年消費者支出一直保持彈性，但第四季消費者面臨的阻力正在增加。從今年假期零售額的預估來看，增幅在 4% 以上到 12% 之間。轉向國際。包括德國和英國在內的一些最大的歐洲市場的出口進一步下滑和消費者支出下降，對我們利潤最高的貿易通道（即中國至美國）的數量和出口產生了負面影響，並且沒有以我們預期的速度改善曾預料到。

Finally, and forwarding, air and ocean capacity has increased, which is putting additional downward pressure on market rates. In fact, in ocean, there is extreme overcapacity versus demand in the market and the forwarding demand outlook in the fourth quarter remains weak.

最後，貨運、空運和海運運力增加，這給市場運價帶來了額外的下行壓力。事實上，海運方面，市場運能嚴重過剩，第四季遠期需求前景依然疲軟。

Turning to capital allocation for the full year. Capital expenditures are still expected to be about $5.3 billion. We are still planning to pay out around $5.4 billion of dividends in 2023 and subject to Board approval. We have repaid $1.6 billion in debt this year as planned and expect to repay an additional $700 million of debt in the fourth quarter. We now expect $2.25 billion in share buybacks in 2023, which we have already completed. In the fourth quarter, we are redeploying cash back into the business for growth initiatives such as strategic acquisitions to drive shareowner value. And lastly, we expect the tax rate for the full year to be approximately 22%. In closing, while navigating a very challenging macro environment, we remain focused on the job at hand. For the past 5 years, we have held the record as the industry leader in service during peak. We intend to do it again this year. Thank you. And operator, please open the line.

轉向全年資本配置。資本支出預計仍約 53 億美元。我們仍計劃在 2023 年支付約 54 億美元的股息，並須經董事會批准。今年我們已按計畫償還了16億美元的債務，預計第四季將額外償還7億美元的債務。我們現在預計 2023 年將進行 22.5 億美元的股票回購，目前我們已經完成了這項計畫。在第四季度，我們將現金重新部署到業務中，用於策略性收購等成長計劃，以提高股東價值。最後，我們預計全年稅率約為 22%。最後，在應對非常具有挑戰性的宏觀環境的同時，我們仍然專注於手邊的工作。過去5年，我們一直維持高峰期服務業領先的紀錄。我們打算今年再做一次。謝謝。接線員，請開通線路。

We'll be getting a question-and-answer period. And our first question will come from the line of Chris Wetherbee of Citigroup.

我們將有一個問答時間。我們的第一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe you start on the guidance and specifically for the fourth quarter. So I think it implies a pretty meaningful step-up in operating profit. And I understand that I'm guessing ADV probably has a significant piece to do with that improvement and the operating profit is considering how low it was in the third quarter.

也許你會從指導開始，特別是第四季的指導。所以我認為這意味著營業利潤的大幅提升。據我了解，我猜測 ADV 可能對這種改善有重要作用，而營業利潤正在考慮第三季的低水平。

But maybe you could help us bridge from how we're going to get from the third quarter, which obviously was quite challenged to what is a significant improvement sequentially. In that context, maybe if you can give us the help of with what October ADV looked like on the domestic side? I think there's a very important number. Just kind of curious if you can help us with that, too.

但也許你可以幫助我們擺脫第三季的困境，第三季顯然面臨顯著改善的挑戰。在這種情況下，也許您可以向我們提供 10 月份 ADV 在國內方面的情況的幫助？我認為有一個非常重要的數字。我只是好奇你是否也能幫助我們。

Sure, happy to, Chris. So if you look at the bridge, I'll take the low end from Q3, we put -- posted $665 million in operating profit to get to the low end of the guide, it would require about $800 million in profit. The 2 biggest drivers of that are volume and revenue quality. The productivity that the teams are generating, Nando, in the U.S., is offsetting the labor contract step up because you'll realize we have 3 months in the third -- fourth quarter, and we had 2 months of the new labor contract in the second.

當然，很高興，克里斯。因此，如果你看一下橋樑，我將採用第三季的低端，我們公佈的營運利潤為 6.65 億美元，要達到指南的低端，需要大約 8 億美元的利潤。其中兩個最大的驅動因素是數量和收入品質。美國 Nando 團隊所產生的生產力正在抵消勞動合約的增加，因為你會意識到我們在第三季至第四季有 3 個月的時間，而我們在 2019 年有 2 個月的新勞動合約。第二。

Your question on volume, as we think about volume and revenue quality, those 2 alone provide a majority of the 800 step-up. But if you think about where we were in August and where we are in October, the momentum is increasing. We had a low watermark, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, down 15% and in terms of ADV volume in August.

你關於數量的問題，當我們考慮數量和收入品質時，光是這兩個就提供了 800 公升的大部分。但如果你想想我們 8 月和 10 月的情況，你會發現勢頭正在增強。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們的水位線較低，就 8 月的 ADV 量而言，下降了 15%。

That translates to around 16 million pieces from an ADV perspective, that's actually -- in October, we're seeing 19 million pieces. So we've seen that step up. I went back, Chris, and looked at last year and the August to October step-up was in 1.5 million pieces. This year, the August October step-up is 2.7 million pieces. So from a glide path and a trajectory, we're seeing momentum. The absolute levels are coming up, and that's what led to the guide.

從 ADV 的角度來看，這意味著大約 1600 萬件，實際上，在 10 月份，我們看到了 1900 萬件。所以我們已經看到了這項進步。克里斯，我回去查看了去年的情況，8 月到 10 月的增量為 150 萬件。今年8月10月增量為270萬件。因此，從下滑路徑和軌跡來看，我們看到了動量。絕對水平正在上升，這就是指南的誕生。

Our next question will come from the line of Allison Poliniak of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的艾莉森·波利尼亞克。

Just want to go back to the comments on the recapture trends. I think you've mentioned it really started in September in terms of that recapture rate. Is that like a huge acceleration in terms of what you're seeing in October? Is it from that recapture? And then also related to that, is there any cost associated with that volume you're recapturing today?

只是想回到關於奪回趨勢的評論。我想你已經提到過，就重新捕獲率而言，它實際上是從九月開始的。就你在 10 月看到的情況而言，這是一個巨大的加速嗎？是從那次奪回而來的嗎？與此相關的是，您今天重新獲得的數量是否有任何成本？

While we're really pleased with how we're capturing volume back in our business. We have recaptured over 600,000 pieces per day of the volume that was locked. And I will say 50% of that recapture is coming from our largest competitor. The recapture continues a day by day. But it's not just about recapturing what we lost, it's about growing new business. You may recall, Allison, at the end of the second quarter, we said we had about a $7 billion pipeline of new business.

雖然我們對我們如何重新獲得業務量感到非常滿意。我們每天已收回超過 60 萬件被鎖定的數量。我想說，50% 的重新奪回來自我們最大的競爭對手。奪回行動一天天地持續著。但這不僅是為了奪回我們失去的東西，更是為了發展新業務。埃里森，你可能還記得，在第二季末，我們說我們有大約 70 億美元的新業務。

Today, we won about 25% of that pipeline. Now that $7 billion is an annualized number. So all those packages and volume haven't come into the network yet, it will come in over the next year. So I couldn't be more pleased with how our sales team is performing and winning new accounts and winning back volume that defer.

今天，我們贏得了該管道中約 25% 的份額。現在70億美元是一個年化數字。因此，所有這些軟體包和數量尚未進入網絡，它將在明年進入。因此，我對我們的銷售團隊的表現、贏得新客戶以及贏回延期的銷售感到非常滿意。

Got it. And then just for the follow-up, is the recapture -- any costs associated with that recapture that you have to make?

知道了。接下來，就是奪回──與奪回相關的任何成本，你必須支付嗎？

There's no material costs associated with the recapture. Customers are coming back because of our superior service.

奪回不涉及任何材料成本。由於我們優質的服務，客戶再次光顧。

Our next question will come from the line of David Vernon of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題將來自伯恩斯坦的大衛·弗農（David Vernon）。

So Brian, you mentioned the $800 million step-up. That's incremental sequential from 3Q to 4Q. I just want to make sure that I heard that correctly. That's the low end of your guidance range assumption.

Brian，您提到了 8 億美元的升級。這是從第三季到第四季的增量順序。我只是想確保我聽到的是正確的。這是您的指導範圍假設的下限。

That's right, Dave.

沒錯，戴夫。

Okay. And then maybe more bigger picture, right, as we think about the exit rate kind of implied in the guide, I think it works out to something like down 20% year-over-year in EBIT. How do we think about that build back in 2024? The front half, obviously, you have inflation, but you've got the GRI to offset. Should we be expecting that sort of second derivative rate of change to slowly get better and then snap back? Or does it get meaningfully better in sort of 1Q, 2Q? How do we think about the shape of 2024 and how it's stepping up to recover in the domestic margin side?

好的。然後也許有更大的前景，對吧，當我們考慮指南中隱含的退出率時，我認為息稅前利潤比去年同期下降了 20%。我們如何看待 2024 年的建設？顯然，前半部存在通貨膨脹，但需要 GRI 來抵消。我們是否應該期望這種二階導數變化率會慢慢好轉然後迅速恢復？或者在第一季、第二季會變得有意義？我們如何看待 2024 年的情勢以及國內利潤率如何加速復甦？

So 2 big pieces of sort of forward momentum, Dave. One is the exit rate on volume. Carol just talked about the win back and also the pipeline of new business. So going into next year, getting back on level footing with a system that has higher ADV will help us certainly from a cost and margin perspective. The revenue per piece, we announced a 5.9% GRI. So that will be coming in. We talked to you recently about the cost overhang of the contract that goes from August to August.

這是兩大前進動力，戴夫。一是成交量退出率。卡羅爾剛剛談到了贏回以及新業務的管道。因此，進入明年，從成本和利潤的角度來看，使用具有更高 ADV 的系統重新站穩腳跟肯定會對我們有所幫助。對於每件收入，我們公佈了 5.9% 的 GRI。所以這將會出現。我們最近與您討論了從八月到八月的合約的成本懸而未決的問題。

So I would tell you from a shape, certainly the first half of the year will be more challenged than the back half of the year. Back half of the year, we get into a 2- to 3-year glide path with lower inflation per year. And then so pricing and productivity can help expand the margins. But those are the pluses and minuses as we look into '24. Obviously, we'll go into a lot more detail on March 26 when we get together with you all for our next Investor Day.

所以我從一個形狀告訴你，上半年肯定會比下半年面臨更大的挑戰。今年下半年，我們將進入 2 至 3 年的下滑路徑，通膨率逐年下降。因此，定價和生產力可以幫助擴大利潤。但當我們審視 24 世紀時，這些都是優點和缺點。顯然，我們將在 3 月 26 日與大家一起參加下一個投資者日時詳細介紹更多細節。

And that rate of change in the first half better than 4Q?

上半年的變化率比第四季好？

Let me come back to you, Dave. But while we're certainly building momentum.

讓我回到你身邊，戴夫。但儘管我們確實正在積蓄動力。

Let's finish up the year, Dave, and then we'll give you some color about 2020.

戴夫，讓我們來結束這一年，然後我們會給你一些關於 2020 年的資訊。

It's always about 2024.

總是在2024年左右。

Our next question will come from the line of Jordan Alliger of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的喬丹·阿利格（Jordan Alliger）。

I was wondering if you could give some color on your confidence level on the new revenue range. How much certainty do you feel the visibility and what frames the high and low end?

我想知道您是否可以說明您對新收入範圍的信心程度。您對可見性以及高端和低端的框架有多少確定性？

So thanks, Jordan, for the question. Look, we feel good about the revenue range. We've narrowed to $1 billion. And I think the thing that's going to drive the upper end versus the lower end really has to do with the retail backdrop. I mentioned in my script. there's the sort of the broad range of the online retail sales for the holiday period. To the extent it's in the higher end of that, we'll have more volume and more revenue to the extent it comes in with some of the risks we're seeing it's towards the lower end.

謝謝喬丹提出這個問題。看，我們對收入範圍感覺良好。我們已經縮減到 10 億美元。我認為推動高端市場相對於低端市場的因素確實與零售背景有關。我在劇本中提到過。假期期間的線上零售額範圍很廣。在某種程度上，它處於高端，我們將擁有更多的銷量和更多的收入，但我們看到它處於低端的一些風險。

Maybe one other comment, if I could, Brian, on the volume range. We know which of our customers peak during peak. There are about 117 customers in the U.S. that make up about 86% of our peak volume. We are sitting down with each of those customers understanding what their plans are as we work on our operating plans to make sure we deliver superior service. Having that insight, if you will, gives us a lot of confidence the U.S. volume numbers that Brian shared with you.

布萊恩，如果可以的話，也許還有另一條關於音量範圍的評論。我們知道哪些客戶在高峰期間達到高峰。美國約有 117 家客戶，約占我們峰值流量的 86%。當我們制定營運計劃時，我們會與每位客戶坐下來了解他們的計劃，以確保我們提供優質的服務。如果您願意的話，擁有這種洞察力可以讓我們對布萊恩與您分享的美國銷售數字充滿信心。

Our next question will come from the line of Tom Wadewitz of UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的湯姆·瓦德維茨（Tom Wadewitz）。

Yes. I -- you made a couple of comments on the volume that you're recapturing. And I just want to make sure I understand it. I guess it's an important point. So I think, Carol, you said 600,000 pieces a day have been recaptured. But then, Brian, you said kind of last year, the August to October was $1.5 million and it's $2.7 million increase this year. So that implies, I guess, $1.2 million increase. So I just wondered if you could give a little more perspective of kind of where we're at in October, how much of that lost business has been recaptured?

是的。我——你對你正在重新捕獲的捲發表了一些評論。我只是想確保我理解它。我想這是很重要的一點。所以我想，卡羅爾，你說每天有 60 萬件被重新捕獲。但是，布萊恩，你說去年 8 月到 10 月增加了 150 萬美元，今年增加了 270 萬美元。我猜這意味著增加 120 萬美元。所以我只是想知道您是否可以對我們 10 月的情況提供更多的看法，有多少失去的業務已被重新奪回？

And then I guess, another way you framed it was December, you were going to get back to flat volumes before. I think it was a prior comment. Do you still think you can do that? Or are we thinking December volumes are down?

然後我想，你用另一種方​​式來描述十二月的情況，你會恢復到以前的持平狀態。我認為這是之前的評論。你還認為你能做到嗎？或者我們認為 12 月份的銷量有所下降？

Yes, Tom. So to frame it up for you, we were trying to get December back to flat versus prior year. I think the guide now implies from a low single digit to a mid-single digit in the month of December, and that's pending some of the backdrop I just talked about in terms of the retail outlook. So from a momentum perspective, I gave in August an October number. But as Carol mentioned, we lost $1.5 million or we had diverted 1.5 million pieces we've seen 40% of that, roughly 600,000 pieces already come back to the system. We're also pushing forward with new business that Carol referenced as well.

是的，湯姆。因此，為了向您說明這一點，我們試圖讓 12 月的情況與去年同期持平。我認為該指南現在暗示 12 月的成長率將從低個位數上升到中個位數，這取決於我剛才談到的零售前景的一些背景。因此，從動量角度來看，我在 8 月給出了 10 月的數據。但正如卡羅爾提到的，我們損失了 150 萬美元，或者我們已經轉移了 150 萬件，我們已經看到其中的 40%，大約 60 萬件已經返回系統。我們也正在推進卡羅爾也提到的新業務。

Our next question will come from the line of Stephanie Moore of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的斯蒂芬妮·摩爾 (Stephanie Moore)。

This is Joe Hafling on for Stephanie Moore. I had maybe a conceptual question on sort of the recapture looking in the near term. Given its peak season and customers are focused on their own execution right now, does this limit your ability to win back volumes in the near term, if shippers don't want to disrupt any of the plans that they've already got in place? Obviously, you've highlighted the capture rate sort of September, October. But just wondering if that slows down as we kind of get into November, December, just as shippers don't want to disrupt your own operations right now.

我是喬·哈夫林，替史蒂芬妮·摩爾發言。我可能有一個關於近期重新奪回的概念性問題。鑑於目前正值旺季，且客戶目前專注於自己的執行，如果托運人不想擾亂他們已經制定的任何計劃，這是否會限制您在短期內贏回銷量的能力？顯然，您已經突出顯示了 9 月、10 月的捕獲率。但只是想知道，隨著我們進入 11 月、12 月，這種情況是否會放緩，就像托運人現在不想擾亂自己的營運一樣。

Actually, it's accelerating. Customers want to come back into our network before peak because of our superior service that we've exhibited over the past 5 years.

事實上，它正在加速。由於我們在過去 5 年中所提供的優質服務，客戶希望在高峰之前回到我們的網路。

Our next question will come from the line of Ken Hoexter of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

If I could just clarify one thing on the step-up. I think to Allison, do you say you're not using increasing pricing as you get towards the tail end of that volume gain. And then my question is on international, right? So you're looking, I guess, Brian, to really snap back closer back to that 20% range. Is that kind of what you're still looking at in terms of margins at international as we move into the fourth quarter? I just want to understand the shift from peak versus a lease space coming back on and the impacts to margin there.

如果我能在升級過程中澄清一件事就好了。我想對艾利森來說，你是否說，當你接近銷售成長的尾聲時，你沒有使用提高定價的方法。然後我的問題是關於國際的，對吧？所以，我猜，Brian，你正在尋找真正回到接近 20% 範圍的目標。當我們進入第四季時，您仍然在關注國際市場的利潤率嗎？我只是想了解高峰期與租賃空間恢復之間的轉變以及對利潤率的影響。

Yes. On the first question, Ken, obviously, you've got volume and pricing. I was talking to with Allison about the volume component. We have announced a 6% to 7% peak season surcharge. So that's obviously flowing through from a revenue standpoint in the fourth quarter as well.

是的。關於第一個問題，肯，顯然，你有數量和價格。我正在與艾莉森談論音量部分。我們已宣布旺季附加費為 6% 至 7%。從第四季收入的角度來看，這顯然也是如此。

I think Alison's question was, are there costs associated with winning back volume? And as I responded, not meaningful. Again, from time to time, we have found customers who diverted and they entered into longer-term contracts. And we might help them to exit those longer-term contracts, but it's not a meaningful discount. It's just we might help them, nothing measurable.

我認為艾莉森的問題是，贏回銷售是否需要付出成本？正如我所回答的，沒有意義。同樣，我們不時發現客戶轉移並簽訂了長期合約。我們可能會幫助他們退出那些長期合同，但這並不是一個有意義的折扣。只是我們可以幫助他們，沒有什麼好衡量的。

Next question will come from the line of Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題將來自沃爾夫研究斯科特集團。

Brian, one of the earlier questions about the bridge from Q3 to Q4, you answered it sort of how do we get to the low end. So should we think that the low end of the range is more of your base case? I just want to understand sort of that answer. And then can you just maybe more explicitly just talk about what your -- the margin expectations are for each of the segments in Q4? Just -- I wasn't sure what you were -- what you're thinking for each business (inaudible) want to answer.

Brian，關於從第三季度到第四季度的橋樑的早期問題之一，您回答了我們如何到達低端。那麼我們是否應該認為該範圍的低端更符合您的基本情況？我只是想了解這個答案。然後，您能否更明確地談談您對第四季度每個細分市場的利潤預期？只是 - 我不確定你是什麼 - 你對每個企業的想法（聽不清楚）想要回答。

I have the walk in front of me for the high end and the low end. So I can give it to either range. And I think it's this retail backdrop uncertainty that drives the delta in volume, which drives the delta in profit. So it's the same levers. It's the volume and the revenue quality really driving the majority. It's at a higher component at the high end versus the $800 million I referenced at the lower end. So net-net, I think from a margin shape standpoint, we finished Q3 mid-single digit in the U.S.

我面前有高端和低端的步道。所以我可以將其指定為任一範圍。我認為正是這種零售背景的不確定性推動了交易量的增量，從而推動了利潤的增量。所以這是相同的槓桿。真正推動大多數的是數量和收入品質。與我提到的低端 8 億美元相比，高端的組成部分更高。因此，我認為從利潤率形狀的角度來看，我們在美國的第三季完成了中個位數的業績。

Obviously, that's a very low watermark driven by the volumes we saw in the quarter. We're looking in the fourth quarter to step back up into that high single-digit, low double-digit range. And so getting back to the trajectory. And then from an international perspective, we were at a 15.8% in the third quarter. I think Kate and the team have planned largely through controlling what we can control, whether it's block hours, whether it's headcount, taking that, and they've done a good job of demonstrating that. Q1 was an 18% margin international. Q2 was a 20%. So we're probably in the middle of that range for the fourth quarter. Hopefully, that helps.

顯然，由於我們在本季看到的銷量，這是一個非常低的水位線。我們預計第四季將回到高個位數、低兩位數的範圍。如此回到軌道。然後從國際角度來看，第三季我們的成長率為15.8%。我認為凱特和團隊主要是透過控制我們能控制的東西來計劃的，無論是工作時間，還是員工人數，他們都很好地證明了這一點。第一季國際利潤率為 18%。第二季為 20%。因此，第四季度我們可能處於該範圍的中間。希望這會有所幫助。

Our next question will come from the line of Amit Mehrotra of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

I guess maybe just a very simple question, I guess, is when do we return to margin expansion in domestic. I mean RPP, CPP spread was really negatively wide in the third quarter. I assume it's still negative, albeit less so in the fourth quarter. Can we get to a situation where we get back to year-on-year margin expansion in early next year? Or do we have to wait until August when the labor really inflation really steps down?

我想也許只是一個很簡單的問題，我想，我們什麼時候才能恢復國內利潤率擴張。我的意思是 RPP、CPP 利差在第三季確實為負值。我認為它仍然是負面的，儘管第四季度的情況有所減輕。我們能否在明年初恢復與年比利潤率擴張的局面？還是必須等到8月勞動力通膨真正下降？

Well, maybe just an observation on the U.S. margin in the third quarter. Recall that we had $500 million of expense related to our Teamster contract in the third quarter. We backed that out, the U.S. margin would have been 8.5%. 8.5% on volume down 11% is not a bad margin. So we've got a bit of pressure on the margin that we shared with you because of our new contract. The contract is front-end loaded.

好吧，也許只是對美國第三季利潤率的觀察。回想一下，第三季我們有 5 億美元與卡車司機合約相關的費用。如果我們支持這一點，美國的利潤率將為 8.5%。成交量下降 11% 的 8.5% 是一個不錯的利潤。因此，由於我們的新合同，我們與您分享的利潤受到了一些壓力。合約是前端加載的。

We're bearing the pain of up front-end load for a 5-year contract that's very attractive. The compounded annual growth rate on the 5 year is 3.3%. So once we get through this first front-end load, with 46% of the cost in the first year, once we get through that, the margin is going to grow. It's going to grow in a big way. So hopefully, that's helpful.

我們正在承受一份非常有吸引力的五年合約的前期負擔。 5年複合成長率為3.3%。因此，一旦我們完成了第一個前端負載（第一年的成本為 46%），一旦我們完成了這個任務，利潤就會成長。它將大幅增長。希望這會有所幫助。

I mean, it kind of is helpful. But I mean, I guess, the question is that are we stuck in this return profile through the first half of next year, and then we see a step function improvement? Or can we see improvement as you guys maybe rip off some of the -- rip out some of those seasonal costs in the first quarter, and we can get back to year-on-year growth in the first quarter even?

我的意思是，這有點幫助。但我的意思是，我想問題是，我們是否會在明年上半年陷入這種回報狀況，然後我們會看到階躍函數的改進？或者我們能否看到改善，因為你們可能會在第一季取消一些季節性成本，我們甚至可以在第一季恢復年成長？

Absolutely fair question. I mean let us finish this year. Then we will give you guidance for 2024, and we can break it down by quarter, if that's going to be helpful in.

絕對公平的問題。我的意思是讓我們結束今年。然後我們將為您提供 2024 年的指導，如果有幫助的話，我們可以按季度進行細分。

Our next question will come from the line of Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克（Ravi Shanker）。

This is Christyne McGarvey on for Ravi. I wanted to take a step back and ask about kind of the path to some of the longer-term targets that you set out at your previous Investor Day, particularly just on some of the macro assumptions that you think you'll need to get there. You've seen definitely muted consumer spending in the last 18 months, but not a collapse. So how much of an uptick in consumer spending do you need to get there? Or maybe said another way, kind of how much do you feel is in directly in your control?

我是拉維的克里斯蒂娜·麥加維。我想退後一步，詢問您在上一個投資者日制定的一些長期目標的路徑，特別是您認為需要實現這些目標的一些宏觀假設。過去 18 個月裡，消費者支出明顯放緩，但並未崩潰。那麼，消費者支出需要增加多少才能實現這一目標呢？或者換句話說，你覺得有多少是你可以直接控制的？

So as we look at the small package volume in the United States, what we're seeing is basically a reversion to the mean. So we're at pre-pandemic levels. And I think our learning, all of our learnings as the (inaudible) volume spikes because of the event, things are going to revert back to the mean. If you look at the growth rates projected for the small package market in the United States, it's low single digits for the next couple of years.

因此，當我們觀察美國的小包裝量時，我們看到的基本上是平均值的回歸。所以我們處於大流行前的水平。我認為我們的學習，我們所有的學習，隨著（聽不清楚）音量因該事件而激增，事情將恢復到平均值。如果你看看美國小封裝市場的預期成長率，你會發現未來幾年的成長率只有個位數。

So we plan to grow not just at the market, but ahead of the market because of the investments that we're making with new products, new capabilities and actually new acquisitions, which we're very excited about. And maybe I'll just take a minute to talk about happy returns, which we just announced last night. Our returns business has been pretty growthy because of the explosion of e-commerce. It's grown 25% since 2020. And we like this business a lot. But we know we can offer a better experience for our retailers because it's expensive. Retailers estimate that between 20% and 30% of all online orders are returned, and it cost them on average, about $33 to process that return. So it's happy returns. We're going to offer consolidated returns for our customers, which will reduce their handling costs, actually improve our delivery density. So it's a win-win-win. And so we're going to put the pedal to the medal in terms of growing the returns business because it's a very good business for us and one that our customers need a solid force. So I'm excited about that.

因此，我們計劃不僅在市場上成長，而且要領先市場，因為我們正在對新產品、新功能和新收購進行投資，對此我們感到非常興奮。也許我會花一點時間談談我們昨晚剛剛宣布的快樂回報。由於電子商務的爆炸性成長，我們的退貨業務取得了相當大的成長。自 2020 年以來成長了 25%。我們非常喜歡這項業務。但我們知道我們可以為零售商提供更好的體驗，因為它的價格昂貴。零售商估計，所有線上訂單中有 20% 到 30% 被退貨，處理退貨的平均成本約為 33 美元。所以這是快樂的回報。我們將為客戶提供合併退貨服務，這將降低他們的處理成本，實際上提高我們的交付密度。所以這是一個雙贏的結果。因此，我們將大力發展退貨業務，因為這對我們來說是一項非常好的業務，而且我們的客戶需要堅實的力量。所以我對此感到很興奮。

The other acquisition that I'm excited about is in health care. Our health care business will be $10 billion this year against an addressable market that's over $100 billion. We're going to grow that market. It's got double-digit margins. We're going to grow it because we need to grow it. It's important for the world. It's important for humanity. And we are the best in the world at this. So that doesn't require any consumer spending. That's just leading into a market share capture with the capabilities that we are investing in, be it cold chain capabilities and more.

另一項令我興奮的收購是在醫療保健領域。今年我們的醫療保健業務將達到 100 億美元，而潛在市場則超過 1000 億美元。我們將擴大這個市場。它有兩位數的利潤。我們要種植它，因為我們需要種植它。這對世界很重要。這對人類很重要。我們在這方面是世界上最好的。所以這不需要任何消費者支出。這只是透過我們正在投資的能力（無論是冷鏈能力還是其他能力）來佔領市場份額。

Our next question will come from the line of Jeff Kauffman of Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

I'd like to drill down a little bit on the macro comments as they relate to domestic. I think it's pretty straightforward what you're saying about Europe and Asia. But can you help put some understanding around your concern for the weaker consumer with student loans and what have you. It does sound like we're going to be in for a reasonable holiday.

我想深入探討與國內相關的宏觀評論。我認為你所說的關於歐洲和亞洲的內容非常簡單。但你能否幫助理解你對學生貸款等弱勢消費者的擔憂？聽起來我們確實要度過一個合理的假期了。

What -- where are you seeing the weakness, whether it's an industry segment or a consumer segment? What concerns you on e-commerce and the domestic consumer?

你在哪裡看到了弱點，無論是產業領域還是消費者領域？您對電子商務和國內消費者的擔憂是什麼？

Well, we've seen clearly a shift from goods to services and people [lived] through the pandemic, started going back to work, taking vacations, eating out at restaurants, going to amusement parks. They're spending their dollars differently. The consumers -- it's not that the consumer is not healthy. They're spending their dollars differently. And what we're seeing with many of our retail customers is a real desire to bring people back into their stores and they should bring people back into the stores because it's their largest investment.

嗯，我們清楚地看到了從商品到服務的轉變，人們[生活]了大流行，開始重返工作崗位、度假、在餐館就餐、去遊樂園。他們花錢的方式不同。消費者——並不是說消費者不健康。他們花錢的方式不同。我們在許多零售客戶身上看到的是真正希望讓人們回到他們的商店，他們應該讓人們回到商店，因為這是他們最大的投資。

So you see retailers offering buy online, pick up in store where they hadn't offered that before. So I can give you an example after example of customers, not by name, obviously, but customers that are in our top 20, where they're seeing their same-store sales down year-on-year because they're anniversarying that COVID peak, if you will.

因此，您會看到零售商提供線上購買、店內取貨服務，而他們以前從未提供過這種服務。因此，我可以給你們一個又一個客戶的例子，顯然不是指名，而是我們前 20 名的客戶，他們的同店銷售額同比下降，因為他們正在紀念新冠疫情巔峰，如果你願意的話。

And they're seeing their online sales down even more. And part of that is because people are going back into stores, part of that (inaudible) shifting. So that's the comment that Brian made in his remarks about just some demand softening is that we do see that with some of our larger customers who didn't divert, but their overall business, and you can look at their guides.

他們發現自己的線上銷售額下降得更多。部分原因是人們回到商店，部分原因（聽不清楚）改變了。這就是布萊恩在他的評論中關於需求疲軟的評論，我們確實看到我們的一些大客戶沒有轉移，但他們的整體業務，你可以看看他們的指南。

I'm not talking about anything that's not public. You can look at their guys where they not only have reported declining sales, but they're guiding after.

我不是說任何不公開的事情。你可以看看他們的員工，他們不僅報告了銷售額的下降，而且還進行了指導。

Our next question will come from the line of Brandon Oglenski of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基。

Brian, you did talk about revenue quality initiatives. I know folks have brought up price quite a bit on this call, but can you talk about not just your pricing outlook, but maybe the mix impact from some of these initiatives you've had in the past on small and medium enterprises.

布萊恩，您確實談到了收入品質計劃。我知道人們在這次電話會議上大幅提高了價格，但您能否不僅談談您的定價前景，還可以談談您過去採取的一些舉措對中小企業的綜合影響。

Yes. SMBs, Brandon, are a very attractive part of the business, and we've continued to penetrate that market. So that's been favorable from a mix perspective. We are seeing customers trade down though from air product to ground. And so we've seen that in the numbers. Air was down more than ground volumes. So there's a bit of a headwind there from a customer mix perspective. So overall, we have a customer mix impact as well that's going on. We're guiding down with our largest customer. So there's a shift there that tends to help from an RPC perspective.

是的。布蘭登，中小型企業是這項業務中非常有吸引力的一部分，我們將繼續滲透該市場。因此，從混合角度來看，這是有利的。我們看到客戶從航空產品轉向地面產品。我們從數字中看到了這一點。空氣量下降幅度超過地面空氣量。因此，從客戶組合的角度來看，存在一些阻力。總的來說，我們也對客戶組合產生了影響。我們正在引導我們最大的客戶。因此，從 RPC 的角度來看，有一個轉變往往會有所幫助。

No, it's interesting. If you go back to 2019, our volume is about the same as the third quarter as it was back in 2019. But our SMB mix has moved from 23% to 29%, and our net revenue per piece has moved from $9.99 a to $12.54. So we've been laser-focused on improving the revenue quality in our business. And we will continue to do that. Value is defined by what the customer is willing to pay for, and we are improving our experience every day. A good example of that is delivery photo. We're now 92% of all of our residential drops or photograph, which creating a better experience for our recipients, for our customers and for us candidate, and is like.

不，這很有趣。如果你回到 2019 年，我們的銷量與 2019 年第三季大致相同。但我們的 SMB 組合已從 23% 升至 29%，每件淨收入已從 9.99 美元升至 12.54 美元。因此，我們一直專注於提高業務收入品質。我們將繼續這樣做。價值是由客戶願意支付的費用來定義的，我們每天都在改善我們的體驗。交貨照片就是一個很好的例子。現在，我們 92% 的住宅都投放了照片，這為我們的收件人、我們的客戶和我們的候選人創造了更好的體驗，就像這樣。

We're leaning into simplifying the experience of how it is to work with us so we talk to you about the widgets that we have with DAP or the improvements that we've made in our claim process. We see our Net Promoter Score now in the high 40s. So we are need of that experience because it helps grow the revenue quality, and we're going to continue to do that.

我們傾向於簡化與我們合作的體驗，因此我們將與您討論我們在 DAP 中使用的小部件或我們在索賠流程中所做的改進。我們的淨推薦值現在高達 40 多分。因此，我們需要這種經驗，因為它有助於提高收入質量，我們將繼續這樣做。

Our next question will come from the line of Brian Ossenbeck of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的布萊恩·奧森貝克。

Maybe just 2 quick follow-ups, actually. Can you talk about the pace of getting the share back as you go into the fourth quarter? Do you think perhaps you had the lower hanging fruit, the user ones to convert back? Do you think that those came back sooner and maybe the pace from here, it is a little bit -- is a little bit harder.

實際上，也許只是 2 個快速跟進。您能談談進入第四季時收回份額的速度嗎？您是否認為也許您有更容易實現的目標，即可以轉換回用戶的目標？你是否認為那些人回來得更快，也許從這裡開始的步伐有點——有點困難。

And then on the buybacks, you mentioned you're cutting or you're -- at least you're stopping the buyback for the quarter. You've got 2 acquisitions targeted. I just wanted to make sure it was clear in terms of what those are if those were the happy returns in MNX or if there's potentially something else that was on the horizon?

然後在回購方面，您提到您正在削減或至少您正在停止本季的回購。您有 2 項收購目標。我只是想確保清楚這些是什麼，如果這些是 MNX 的美好回報，或者是否有其他潛在的東西即將出現？

No. We have nothing else planned out on the horizon today. So we'll be buying MNX and happy returns this quarter, and it's about billion, trillion in total that we'll be spending on those 2 companies. In terms of the pace of getting share, as I mentioned earlier, it's accelerating because of the fact that (inaudible) nearly honest. So people want to come into the network.

不。我們今天沒有其他計劃。因此，我們將在本季購買 MNX 並獲得滿意的回報，我們將在這兩家公司上總共花費約十億、兆美元。就獲得份額的速度而言，正如我之前提到的，它正在加速，因為（聽不清楚）幾乎是誠實的。所以人們想進入網路。

Here's the truth though. It does take time to come back in. I get weekly updates from Nando and the team, from Kate and the team about how is the volume coming back in. And I see that, oh, we've gotten a handshake. We've gotten an agreement from a customer that's coming back in. And then I see it takes 30 days to get it back into on car. And so now I'm like, "I want photos when it's on car because I want to make sure that's actually in the network. And that's what we're getting. We're having some fun with that actually because we're seeing it, picked up from our competitors. That's always done when you're picking up volume from your competitors. So it accelerates.

但這是事實。恢復確實需要時間。我每週都會從 Nando 和團隊、Kate 和團隊那裡收到關於銷量恢復情況的最新消息。我看到，哦，我們已經握手了。我們已經從即將回來的客戶那裡得到了協議。然​​後我發現需要 30 天才能將其重新安裝到汽車上。所以現在我想，「我想要它在車上時的照片，因為我想確保它確實在網絡中。這就是我們得到的。我們實際上對此感到很有趣，因為我們看到它是從我們的競爭對手那裡獲得的。當你從競爭對手那裡獲得數量時，總是會這樣做。所以它會加速。

Steven, we have time for one more question.

史蒂文，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Okay. With no further questions, thank you for your time, and have a good day.

好的。沒有其他問題了，感謝您抽出寶貴的時間，祝您有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now hang up.

女士們先生們，我們今天的呼籲到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以掛斷電話了。