聯合包裹運送服務公司 (UPS) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Stephen, and I will be your facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the UPS Investor Relations Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. Ken Cook, Investor Relations Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

早上好。我叫斯蒂芬，今天我將擔任你們的協調員。歡迎大家參加 UPS 投資者關係 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）現在我很高興將發言權交給東道主投資者關係官肯·庫克先生。先生，地板是你的了。

Good morning, and welcome to the UPS Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Carol Tome, our CEO; Brian Newman, our CFO; and a few additional members of our executive leadership team.

早上好，歡迎參加 UPS 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的首席執行官 Carol Tome；布萊恩·紐曼，我們的首席財務官；以及我們執行領導團隊的一些其他成員。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that some of the comments we'll make today are forward-looking statements within the federal securities laws and address our expectations for the future performance or operating results of our company. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are described in our 2022 Form 10-K and other reports we file with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports, when filed, are available on the UPS Investor Relations website and from the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，我們今天發表的一些評論是聯邦證券法範圍內的前瞻性陳述，涉及我們對公司未來業績或經營業績的預期。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交或提供的 2022 年 10-K 表格和其他報告中進行了描述。這些報告提交後可在 UPS 投資者關係網站和 SEC 上獲取。

Unless stated otherwise, our discussion refers to adjusted results. For the second quarter of 2023, GAAP results include after-tax transformation and other charges of $106 million or $0.12 per diluted share. A reconciliation to GAAP financial results is available on the UPS Investor Relations website, along with the webcast of today's call. Following our prepared remarks, we will take questions from those joining us via the teleconference. (Operator Instructions) And now I'll turn the call over to Carol.

除非另有說明，我們的討論指的是調整後的結果。 2023 年第二季度，GAAP 業績包括稅後轉型和其他費用 1.06 億美元，即稀釋後每股 0.12 美元。 UPS 投資者關係網站上提供了 GAAP 財務業績的調節表以及今天電話會議的網絡廣播。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將通過電話會議回答與會人員的問題。 （操作員說明）現在我將把電話轉給卡羅爾。

Thank you, Ken, and good morning. Let me begin by commenting on our agreement with the Teamsters. We believe this contract is a win-win-win. Together, we reached agreements on the issues that were important to Teamster leadership, to our employees and to UPS. We have the best people, and our new contract continues to reward our employees with the best pay and benefits in our industry. I'll share some highlights of the new contract in a moment.

謝謝你，肯，早上好。首先讓我評論一下我們與卡車司機的協議。我們相信這份合同是雙贏的。我們共同就對卡車司機領導層、我們的員工和 UPS 都很重要的問題達成了一致。我們擁有最優秀的人才，我們的新合同繼續以行業內最好的薪酬和福利獎勵我們的員工。我稍後將分享新合同的一些亮點。

The second quarter was challenging, and I'd like to recognize the more than 500,000 UPSers around the world for their hard work and effort and for doing what they do better than anyone, and that's to deliver industry-leading service. I'd also like to give a special shout-out to our sales people for their dedication to our customers. And most importantly, I want to thank our customers for putting their trust and their business with us during our labor negotiations. And for those customers who divert it, we look forward to bring you back to our network.

第二季度充滿挑戰，我要表彰全球超過 500,000 名 UPS 員工的辛勤工作和努力，以及他們比任何人都做得更好的事情，那就是提供行業領先的服務。我還要特別讚揚我們的銷售人員對客戶的奉獻精神。最重要的是，我要感謝我們的客戶在勞資談判期間對我們的信任和業務。對於那些轉移的客戶，我們期待著將您帶回我們的網絡。

Moving to our second quarter results. We expected negotiations with the Teamsters to be late and loud, and they were. As the noise level increased throughout the second quarter, we experienced more volume diversion than we anticipated. Now in face with volume declines, some companies might go off strategy or chase unprofitable business, but that is not today's UPS. Today's UPS is focused on the long term. During the quarter, we stayed on strategy and continued to invest in the business. We also maintained our pricing discipline.

轉向我們的第二季度業績。我們預計與卡車司機的談判會遲到且吵鬧，事實也確實如此。隨著第二季度噪音水平的增加，我們經歷了比我們預期更多的音量轉移。現在，面對銷量下降，一些公司可能會放棄策略或追逐無利可圖的業務，但這不是今天的 UPS。今天的 UPS 著眼於長期。本季度，我們堅持戰略並繼續對業務進行投資。我們還保持了定價紀律。

Further, the investments we've made in our automated facilities and technology, like Network Planning Tools or NPT, have enabled greater agility than ever before. As volume levels declined, we demonstrated that agility by quickly adjusting our integrated network and maintaining high levels of productivity.

此外，我們對自動化設施和技術（例如網絡規劃工具或 NPT）的投資實現了比以往更高的敏捷性。隨著產量水平的下降，我們通過快速調整集成網絡並保持高水平的生產力來證明了這種敏捷性。

Looking at our second quarter results. Versus last year, consolidated revenue declined 10.9% to $22.1 billion, under our expectations due to lower volume. But by controlling what we could control, we quickly took cost out of the network and delivered $2.9 billion of operating profit, in line with our expectations. Consolidated operating margin was 13.2%, which exceeded our expectations.

看看我們第二季度的業績。與去年相比，由於銷量下降，綜合收入下降 10.9% 至 221 億美元，低於我們的預期。但通過控制我們能控制的事情，我們很快就降低了網絡成本，並實現了 29 億美元的營業利潤，符合我們的預期。綜合營業利潤率為 13.2%，超出我們的預期。

Over the past 3 years, we've executed several initiatives in support of our Customer First, People Led, Innovation Driven strategy. Let me highlight some recent accomplishments.

在過去的三年裡，我們實施了多項舉措來支持我們的客戶至上、以人為本、創新驅動的戰略。讓我強調一下最近取得的一些成就。

Starting with customer first. During the labor negotiation, communication and transparency with customers was a top priority. During the quarter, over 500 UPS executives had regular contact with many, many customers. Our approach with these customers was to keep volume from diverting or if it diverted, win it back after the labor negotiation was settled. This approach brought us closer to our customers, and we've gained an even better understanding of their end-to-end supply chain, which will allow us to better serve them.

從客戶至上開始。在勞資談判過程中，與客戶的溝通和透明度是重中之重。本季度，超過 500 名 UPS 高管與許許多多的客戶進行了定期聯繫。我們對待這些客戶的方法是防止銷量轉移，或者如果發生轉移，在勞資談判解決後將其贏回來。這種方法拉近了我們與客戶的距離，並且更好地了解了他們的端到端供應鏈，這將使我們能夠更好地為他們服務。

We are now laser focused on executing our win-back initiatives and pulling through the more than $7 billion of opportunity in our sales pipeline. To do so, we will leverage our superior service and capability and the investments we've made in the digital customer experience. We'll all win back and new volume won't happen immediately, we are already seeing some volume return.

我們現在專注於執行我們的贏回計劃，並抓住我們銷售渠道中超過 70 億美元的機會。為此，我們將利用我們卓越的服務和能力以及我們在數字客戶體驗方面所做的投資。我們都會贏回來，新的銷量不會立即出現，我們已經看到了一些銷量的回歸。

On the digital front, our Digital Access Program, or DAP, continues to grow. We've introduced new plug-and-play technology to make it even easier for e-commerce platforms to connect. In the second quarter, we added 7 new platforms to DAP, including 4 international platforms. In the first 6 months of this year, DAP generated more than $1.4 billion in revenue, putting us on our way to achieving our 2023 DAP revenue targets of around $3 billion.

在數字方面，我們的數字訪問計劃（DAP）持續增長。我們引入了新的即插即用技術，使電子商務平台的連接更加容易。第二季度，我們為DAP添加了7個新平台，其中包括4個國際平台。今年前 6 個月，DAP 創造了超過 14 億美元的收入，使我們有望實現 2023 年約 30 億美元的 DAP 收入目標。

One of our strategic objectives is to become the #1 complex healthcare logistics provider in the world. In the second quarter, we further expanded our European footprint by opening our first dedicated healthcare distribution facility in Ireland, giving us certified healthcare facilities in 35 countries. For the first 6 months of 2023, revenue from our healthcare portfolio reached $4.7 billion. For the full year, we expect to generate $10 billion in healthcare revenue.

我們的戰略目標之一是成為世界第一的綜合醫療物流提供商。第二季度，我們在愛爾蘭開設了第一家專門的醫療保健分銷設施，進一步擴大了我們的歐洲業務，使我們在 35 個國家/地區擁有經過認證的醫療保健設施。 2023 年前 6 個月，我們的醫療保健產品組合收入達到 47 億美元。我們預計全年醫療保健收入將達到 100 億美元。

On the international small package front, we've been quickly expanding in India, which is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. In May of last year, we launched MOVIN, our asset-light domestic joint venture. And we recently expanded from 3 studies to 49 of the largest cities in India, now covering approximately 90% of the B2B market opportunity.

在國際小包裹方面，我們在印度迅速擴張，印度是世界上增長最快的經濟體之一。去年5月，我們推出了輕資產國內合資企業MOVIN。我們最近從 3 項研究擴展到印度最大的 49 個城市，目前覆蓋了大約 90% 的 B2B 市場機會。

Turning to People Led. We expect our new labor contract to be ratified in 2 weeks. Today, I'll just share some highlights, and we will provide more details after ratification. Let's start with weekend delivery. The new contract converts all [22.4] employees, who are our weekend delivery drivers, to regular full-time packaged car drivers. This gives us the flexibility we need to schedule delivery drivers Tuesday through Saturday and provides more work-life balance for our drivers. Further, we kept our Sunday delivery service by maintaining our SurePost product.

轉向以人為本。我們預計新的勞動合同將在兩週內獲得批准。今天我只是分享一些要點，待批准後我們會提供更多細節。讓我們從周末送貨開始。新合同將所有[22.4]員工（我們的周末送貨司機）轉變為常規全職打包汽車司機。這為我們提供了周二至週六安排送貨司機所需的靈活性，並為我們的司機提供了更多的工作與生活平衡。此外，我們通過維護 SurePost 產品來保留週日遞送服務。

Moving to working conditions. We will be improving the working conditions for all employees, including air conditioning in every new U.S. packaged car, starting in January 2024. We retained our ability to introduce new technology and the flexibility to use seasonal support during the peak holiday season. For our Teamster employees, this contract further strengthens the industry-leading pay and benefits they already enjoy.

轉向工作條件。從 2024 年 1 月開始，我們將改善所有員工的工作條件，包括為每輛新的美國整車配備空調。我們保留了引進新技術的能力以及在假期高峰期間使用季節性支持的靈活性。對於我們的卡車司機員工來說，這份合同進一步加強了他們已經享有的行業領先的薪酬和福利。

When you look at total compensation, by the end of the new contract, the average UPS full-time driver will make about $170,000 annually in pay and benefits. And for all part-time union employees that are already working at UPS, by the end of this contract, they will be making at least $25.75 per hour while receiving full healthcare and pension benefits. In fact, our part-timers are among only 7% of all U.S. part-time workers in the private sector to enjoy these benefits.

從總薪酬來看，到新合同結束時，平均 UPS 全職司機每年的工資和福利約為 17 萬美元。對於已經在 UPS 工作的所有兼職工會員工來說，到本合同結束時，他們每小時將至少賺取 25.75 美元，同時享受全額醫療保健和養老金福利。事實上，在美國私營部門所有兼職工人中，只有 7% 的人享受到這些福利，而我們的兼職工人。

There's much, much more, but the last point I would like to highlight is the addition of a new paid holiday on Martin Luther King Junior Day, which will be a benefit for all U.S. employees. UPS is a long history of honoring Dr. King. And this additional paid holiday aligns with our value. All of this and more helps to make UPS the best place to work, which brings me to Innovation Driven.

還有很多很多，但我想強調的最後一點是在馬丁·路德·金少年日增加了一個新的帶薪假期，這將為所有美國員工帶來福利。 UPS 向金博士致敬的歷史由來已久。這個額外的帶薪假期符合我們的價值觀。所有這些以及更多因素都有助於使 UPS 成為最佳工作場所，這讓我想到了“創新驅動”。

We run the most efficient integrated network in the world, powered by technology developed by UPS Engineer. In the quarter, we leveraged the agility of our network to match capacity with volume levels. Key to this agility was NPT, which is a set of technologies that use AI and machine learning to harness the value of our data to quickly make changes to low planning, scheduling and volume flows across the network. This technology is powerful. In fact, NPT can do in an afternoon what used to take a team of engineers months to do.

我們運營著世界上最高效的綜合網絡，由 UPS 工程師開發的技術提供支持。在本季度，我們利用網絡的敏捷性來匹配容量與數量水平。這種敏捷性的關鍵是 NPT，它是一組使用人工智能和機器學習來利用數據價值的技術，以快速改變整個網絡的低規劃、調度和流量。這項技術很強大。事實上，NPT 只需一個下午就能完成過去工程師團隊需要幾個月才能完成的工作。

By using NPT with our total service plan, we quickly match the network to volume levels. This resulted in a nearly 10% reduction in hours in the U.S., in line with the decline in volume. Additionally, NPT enabled us to further reduce semi-variable and fixed costs, which Brian will detail in a moment. Importantly, we did all of it while continuing to provide industry-leading service to our customers. There is no finish line when it comes to driving efficiency.

通過將 NPT 與我們的整體服務計劃結合使用，我們可以快速將網絡與容量級別相匹配。這導緻美國的工作時間減少了近 10%，與交易量的下降一致。此外，NPT 使我們能夠進一步降低半可變和固定成本，Brian 稍後將詳細介紹這一點。重要的是，我們在完成這一切的同時，繼續為客戶提供行業領先的服務。駕駛效率沒有終點線。

For example, we've made great progress in rolling out Smart Package Smart Facility, our RFID initiative. At the end of the second quarter, almost 50% of our U.S. buildings were operating with this technology, and we expect to complete the U.S. deployment by the end of October.

例如，我們在推出智能包裹智能設施（我們的 RFID 計劃）方面取得了巨大進展。截至第二季度末，我們美國近 50% 的建築都採用了該技術，我們預計將在 10 月底完成美國的部署。

Quickly touching on our outlook. Now that labor negotiations are behind us, we've updated our guidance for the full year, primarily to reflect the volume impact from labor negotiations and the costs associated with the tentative agreement. Brian will share more detail in a moment.

快速談談我們的看法。現在勞資談判已經結束，我們更新了全年指引，主要是為了反映勞資談判對數量的影響以及與臨時協議相關的成本。布萊恩稍後將分享更多細節。

Let me close by talking about our future. Customer First, People Led, Innovation Driven under our better and bolder framework is a winning strategy. We are winning in the best parts of the market and making our integrated network even more agile and efficient. And now for the People Led part of our strategy, our new contract establishes a platform for the future. Our company is stronger than ever, and we will move even faster to execute our strategy and continue delivering industry-leading service for our customers. I'm excited about what the future holds and what UPSers will accomplish together. I truly believe our best days are ahead of us.

最後讓我談談我們的未來。在我們更好、更大膽的框架下，客戶至上、以人為本、創新驅動是一項製勝戰略。我們正在贏得市場的最佳部分，並使我們的集成網絡更加敏捷和高效。現在，對於我們戰略的“以人為本”部分，我們的新合同為未來建立了一個平台。我們的公司比以往任何時候都更強大，我們將更快地執行我們的戰略，並繼續為我們的客戶提供行業領先的服務。我對未來以及 UPS 員工將共同實現的目標感到興奮。我堅信我們最好的日子就在前方。

And with that, thank you for listening. And now I'll turn the call over to Brian.

感謝您的聆聽。現在我將把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thanks, Carol, and good morning. Let me begin by echoing Carol's comments on how pleased we are no achieving a win-win-win labor agreement covering our more than 300,000 Teamster employees. This contract provides UPS a significant measure of certainty around labor, gives us operational flexibility to increase productivity and continue providing industry-leading service to our customers, and it will help us attract and retain the best employees in the industry.

謝謝，卡羅爾，早上好。首先，我要回應卡羅爾的評論，即我們對未能達成涵蓋超過 300,000 名卡車司機員工的雙贏勞動協議感到非常高興。該合同為 UPS 提供了勞動力方面的重要確定性措施，為我們提供了運營靈活性，以提高生產力並繼續為客戶提供行業領先的服務，並將幫助我們吸引和留住行業中最優秀的員工。

Now in my comments today, I'll cover 4 areas. I'll start with the macro, followed by our second quarter results. Next, I'll cover cash and shareholder returns. And lastly, I'll provide some comments on the second half of the year. In the second quarter, the overall macro conditions in the U.S. were in line with our expectations. Internationally, conditions were a little worse than we expected due to lower growth in both real exports and industrial production.

在今天的評論中，我將涵蓋 4 個領域。我將從宏觀開始，然後是我們第二季度的業績。接下來，我將討論現金和股東回報。最後，我將對下半年做出一些評論。第二季度，美國整體宏觀形勢符合我們的預期。國際方面，由於實際出口和工業生產增長放緩，情況比我們預期的要差一些。

Moving to our financial results. For the quarter, consolidated revenue was $22.1 billion, down 10.9% from last year. All 3 of our segments demonstrated agility and on a combined basis, drove down total expense by $2.1 billion in the second quarter year-over-year. This enabled us to deliver $2.9 billion in operating profit, which is the target we communicated to you last quarter and was a decrease of 18.4% compared to last year.

轉向我們的財務業績。該季度綜合收入為 221 億美元，比去年下降 10.9%。我們的所有 3 個部門都表現出了靈活性，第二季度的總支出同比減少了 21 億美元。這使我們能夠實現 29 億美元的營業利潤，這是我們上季度向您傳達的目標，與去年相比下降了 18.4%。

Consolidated operating margin was 13.2%, a decline of 120 basis points compared to the same period last year, with all 3 segments achieving double-digit operating margins. For the second quarter, diluted earnings per share was $2.54, down 22.8% from the same period last year.

綜合營業利潤率為13.2%，較去年同期下降120個基點，三個業務部門均實現兩位數營業利潤率。第二季度攤薄後每股收益為2.54美元，較去年同期下降22.8%。

Now let's look at our business segments. In U.S. Domestic, our disciplined approach to revenue quality partially offset the decrease in volume. As volume declined throughout the quarter, the team did an excellent job adjusting the network to match demand and drive out cost in real time, all while maintaining industry-leading service levels. We expected volumes to decline in the second quarter, and it did, but we saw more volume diversion than anticipated as noise levels around our labor negotiations increased.

現在讓我們看看我們的業務部門。在美國國內，我們嚴格的收入質量方法部分抵消了銷量的下降。隨著整個季度銷量的下降，該團隊出色地調整了網絡以滿足需求並實時降低成本，同時保持行業領先的服務水平。我們預計第二季度的銷量將下降，事實確實如此，但隨著圍繞勞資談判的噪音水平增加，我們發現銷量轉移比預期更多。

We estimate the impact of volume diversion, combined with a slowdown in our sales pipeline pull-through, reduced volume in the second quarter by approximately 1.2 million packages per day. For the quarter, total average daily volume was down 9.9%, with June down 12.2%.

我們估計，銷量轉移的影響，加上我們銷售渠道拉動的放緩，導致第二季度的銷量每天減少約 120 萬件。本季度日均總成交量下降 9.9%，其中 6 月份下降 12.2%。

Moving to mix. In the second quarter, we saw lower volumes across all industry sectors with the largest declines from retail and high tech. B2C average daily volume declined 11.5% compared to last year, and B2B average daily volume was down 7.7%. In the second quarter, B2B represented 43.7% of our volume, which was an increase of 100 basis points from a year ago. Also in the second quarter, we continued to see customers shift volumes out of the air onto the ground. Total air average daily volume was down 16.5% year-over-year, and ground average daily volume declined 8.6%.

移動到混合。第二季度，所有行業的銷量均出現下降，其中零售業和高科技行業的跌幅最大。 B2C日均交易量較去年下降11.5%，B2B日均交易量下降7.7%。第二季度，B2B 業務量占我們業務量的 43.7%，比去年同期增長了 100 個基點。同樣在第二季度，我們繼續看到客戶將貨物從空中轉移到地面。空中日均流量總量同比下降 16.5%，地面日均流量下降 8.6%。

In terms of customer mix, in the second quarter, SMB average daily volumes declined less than volume from our enterprise customers. SMBs, including

從客戶結構來看，第二季度中小企業日均交易量下降幅度小於企業客戶。中小型企業，包括

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

quarter. U.S. domestic generated revenue of $14.4 billion, down 6.9%. Revenue per piece increased 3.3%, partially offsetting the decline in volume. The combination of strong base rates and improved customer mix increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 670 basis points. Changes in fuel prices decreased the revenue per piece growth rate by 220 basis points. The remaining 120 basis point decline was due to multiple factors, including package characteristics and product mix.

四分之一.美國國內收入為 144 億美元，下降 6.9%。每件收入增長 3.3%，部分抵消了銷量的下降。強勁的基本費率和改善的客戶組合相結合，使每件收入增長率提高了 670 個基點。燃油價格的變化使每件收入增長率下降了 220 個基點。其餘 120 個基點的下降是由多種因素造成的，包括包裝特性和產品組合。

Turning to costs. The U.S. Domestic team took out $889 million of expense year-over-year, which is the largest year-over-year cost reduction in our history. How did we do it? We leveraged our technology and the agility of our integrated network. Let me walk you through some of the levers we've pulled.

轉向成本。美國國內團隊同比支出 8.89 億美元，這是我們歷史上最大的同比成本削減。我們是怎麼做的？我們利用我們的技術和集成網絡的敏捷性。讓我向您介紹我們已經採取的一些措施。

We continued to execute our total service plan and reduced labor hours by nearly 10% to maintain our high levels of productivity. We leveraged the power of our Network Planning Tools to optimize package flows and pull volume out of smaller nonautomated buildings and flow it into our larger automated facilities. While total volume was down 9.9%, we reduced the volume in our nonautomated building by 18%. This enabled us to close door and reduce operations headcount by 7% compared to last year. We reduced feeder movements by continuing to manage cube utilization in our trailers and brought on more UPS feeder drivers to support our fastest ground-ever lane.

我們繼續執行全面服務計劃，將工時減少了近 10%，以保持高水平的生產力。我們利用網絡規劃工具的強大功能來優化包裹流程，並將體積從較小的非自動化建築物中拉出，並將其流入我們較大的自動化設施中。雖然總體積下降了 9.9%，但我們將非自動化建築的體積減少了 18%。這使我們能夠關門並將運營人員數量比去年減少 7%。我們通過繼續管理拖車中的立方體利用率來減少支線運輸，並聘請更多 UPS 支線司機來支持我們有史以來最快的地面車道。

Looking at air volumes, we pulled more activity into World Port, our global AirHub in Louisville. This enabled us to move more volume via our next day flight and reduce second day flights. As a result, domestic block hours were lower by 6.5% versus last year, and we exited the second quarter with block hours down more than 10%.

從空氣量來看，我們將更多的活動引入了世界港，即我們位於路易斯維爾的全球航空樞紐。這使我們能夠通過第二天的航班運送更多的貨物，並減少第二天的航班。結果，國內封鎖時間比去年減少了 6.5%，第二季度結束時，封鎖時間減少了 10% 以上。

And lastly, we reduced management headcount by over 2,500 positions year-over-year. All of these actions helped us reduce U.S. domestic expense in the second quarter. Specifically, compensation and benefits was down $205 million year-over-year, despite a 6.5% increase in average union wage rates.

最後，我們同比減少了 2,500 多個管理職位。所有這些行動都幫助我們減少了第二季度美國國內的支出。具體而言，儘管工會平均工資增長了 6.5%，但薪酬和福利同比下降了 2.05 億美元。

Purchase transportation declined $207 million. Fuel expense was lower by $394 million. And there were multiple factors that drove the remaining $83 million reduction in expense. Our results are proof of our agility. And in the second quarter, we took out a record amount of cost and held the cost per piece growth rate to 3.7%, while volume was down nearly 10%.

採購運輸減少了 2.07 億美元。燃油費用減少了 3.94 億美元。造成剩餘 8300 萬美元費用減少的因素有多種。我們的結果證明了我們的敏捷性。第二季度，我們降低了創紀錄的成本，並將每件成本增長率保持在 3.7%，而銷量卻下降了近 10%。

The U.S. Domestic segment delivered $1.7 billion in operating profit, in line with our expectations and down 9.4% compared to the second quarter of 2022. Operating margin was 11.7%, an increase of 180 basis points from the first quarter of this year.

美國國內業務實現營業利潤 17 億美元，符合我們的預期，較 2022 年第二季度下降 9.4%。營業利潤率為 11.7%，較今年第一季度增長 180 個基點。

Moving to our International segment. Macro conditions remained sluggish in the second quarter. In Europe, persistent high inflation and tight financial conditions weighed on the consumer. And in Asia, the slow recovery we experienced in the first quarter stalled in the second quarter.

轉向我們的國際部分。第二季度宏觀經濟形勢依然低迷。在歐洲，持續的高通脹和緊張的金融狀況給消費者帶來了壓力。在亞洲，我們在第一季度經歷的緩慢復甦在第二季度陷入停滯。

In the quarter, International total average daily volume was down 6.6% year-over-year. About 2/3 of the decline came from lower domestic average daily volume, which was down 8.7%, driven primarily by declines in Europe.

本季度，國際日均總交易量同比下降 6.6%。大約 2/3 的下降來自國內日均交易量下降，下降了 8.7%，主要是由於歐洲的下降。

On the export side, average daily volume declined 4.5% on a year-over-year basis.

出口方面，日均成交量同比下降4.5%。

Looking at Asia, export average daily volume was down 10.1%. Export volume on the China to U.S. lane was down 7% year-over-year, which was an improvement from the first quarter. In the second quarter, International revenue was $4.4 billion, which was down 13% from last year due to the decline in volume and a 5.7% reductions in revenue per piece. The decline in revenue per piece was primarily driven by a 570-basis point decrease from fuel surcharge revenue. Additionally, a reduction in demand-related surcharge revenue contributed 240 basis points to the decline. And there was an 80-basis point decline in revenue per piece due to a stronger U.S. dollar.

放眼亞洲，日均出口量下降10.1%。中國至美國航線的出口量同比下降7%，較一季度有所改善。第二季度，國際收入為 44 億美元，由於銷量下降以及每件收入減​​少 5.7%，較去年下降 13%。每件收入下降的主要原因是燃油附加費收入下降了 570 個基點。此外，與需求相關的附加費收入減少導致下降 240 個基點。由於美元走強，每件收入下降了 80 個基點。

Partially offsetting the decline, multiple factors increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 320 basis points, including strong base rate and favorable volume mix as export volume outperformed domestic volume.

多種因素部分抵消了下降的影響，使每件收入增長率提高了 320 個基點，其中包括強勁的基准率和有利的銷量組合，因為出口量優於國內量。

Moving to cost. In the second quarter, total international cost was down $356 million, primarily driven by lower fuel expense. We leveraged the agility of our integrated network to match capacity with demand and focused on controlling what we could control. These actions included flight reduction, which drove international block hours down 9.4% compared to last year, which includes a 15.5% block hour reduction on Asia-outbound Transcontinental flights.

轉向成本。第二季度，國際總成本下降了 3.56 億美元，主要是由於燃料費用下降。我們利用集成網絡的敏捷性來匹配容量與需求，並專注於控制我們可以控制的內容。這些行動包括減少航班，導致國際航班班次比去年減少 9.4%，其中亞洲出境橫貫大陸航班班次減少 15.5%。

We also reduced headcount in operations and overhead functions by a total of more than 1,700 positions. And we did all of this while continuing to deliver excellent service to our customers.

我們還減少了運營和管理職能部門的員工總數 1,700 多個職位。我們在做到這一切的同時，繼續為客戶提供優質的服務。

Operating profit in the International segment was $902 million, down $302 million year-over-year, which included a $123 million reduction in demand-related surcharge revenue. Operating margin in the second quarter was 20.4%, in line with our expectations.

國際部門的營業利潤為 9.02 億美元，同比下降 3.02 億美元，其中與需求相關的附加費收入減少了 1.23 億美元。第二季度營業利潤率為20.4%，符合我們的預期。

Now looking at Supply Chain Solutions. Our teams continued to navigate a challenging macro environment and executed our plans to reduce cost. In the second quarter, revenue was $3.2 billion, down $990 million year-over-year.

現在看看供應鏈解決方案。我們的團隊繼續應對充滿挑戰的宏觀環境，並執行我們的降低成本計劃。第二季度營收為 32 億美元，同比下降 9.9 億美元。

Looking at the key drivers. Forwarding continued to be impacted by softer global demand, especially out of Asia, which drove market rate and volume lower. This resulted in a decline in revenue and operating profit. In response, we cut operating costs and are continuing to manage buy-sell spreads.

看看關鍵的驅動因素。貨運繼續受到全球需求疲軟的影響，尤其是亞洲以外的需求，導致市場運價和成交量下降。這導致收入和營業利潤下降。作為回應，我們削減了運營成本，並繼續管理買賣價差。

Logistics delivered revenue and operating profit growth, including gains in our healthcare business. In the second quarter, Supply Chain Solutions generated operating profit of $336 million and an operating margin of 10.4%.

物流帶來了收入和營業利潤的增長，包括我們的醫療保健業務的收益。第二季度，供應鏈解決方案實現營業利潤 3.36 億美元，營業利潤率為 10.4%。

Walking through the rest of the income statement. We had $190 million of interest expense, our other pension income was $66 million, and our effective tax rate for the second quarter was 23.5%.

瀏覽損益表的其餘部分。我們的利息支出為 1.9 億美元，其他養老金收入為 6600 萬美元，第二季度的有效稅率為 23.5%。

Now let's turn to cash and shareowner returns. Year-to-date, we generated $5.6 billion in cash from operations, and free cash flow was $3.8 billion, including our annual pension contribution of $1.2 billion that we made in the first quarter. Also this year, in the first quarter, we issued $2.5 billion in long-term debt. We've used $1.6 billion to pay off debt maturities in the second quarter, and we plan to use $900 million to pay off debt maturities in the second half of this year. And in the first half of 2023, UPS paid $2.7 billion in dividend. We also completed $1.5 billion in share buybacks at an average price of around $178 per share.

現在讓我們轉向現金和股東回報。年初至今，我們的運營現金為 56 億美元，自由現金流為 38 億美元，其中包括第一季度繳納的 12 億美元年度養老金。同樣在今年第一季度，我們發行了 25 億美元的長期債務。我們已經在第二季度使用了16億美元來償還到期債務，我們計劃在今年下半年使用9億美元來償還到期債務。 2023年上半年，UPS支付了27億美元的股息。我們還以每股 178 美元左右的平均價格完成了 15 億美元的股票回購。

Now I'll share a few comments about our outlook. As Carol mentioned, with the contract out for ratification, we have updated our consolidated revenue and adjusted operating margin guidance. For the full year 2023, we expect consolidated revenues of about $93 billion and consolidated operating margin of around 11.8%.

現在我將分享一些關於我們的前景的評論。正如卡羅爾提到的，隨著合同的批准，我們更新了合併收入並調整了營業利潤率指導。 2023 年全年，我們預計綜合收入約為 930 億美元，綜合營業利潤率約為 11.8%。

Now let me provide some color to help you update your models for the second half of the year. The U.S. Domestic segment is navigating a couple of unique factors in the back half of the year. First, in the second quarter and into July, we experienced more volume diversion than we anticipated. Because of this, our volume ramp-up for the second half of the year is starting from a lower base.

現在讓我提供一些顏色來幫助您更新下半年的模型。美國國內市場在今年下半年面臨著一些獨特的因素。首先，從第二季度到 7 月份，我們經歷的交易量轉移比我們預期的要多。因此，我們下半年的銷量增長是從較低的基數開始的。

We're already executing our initiatives to win back diverted volume and accelerate the pull-through from our sales pipeline while remaining disciplined on revenue quality. As a result of our efforts, by the end of the year, we expect our average daily volume level to be about even with December of last year. And overall, for the second half of 2023, we expect U.S. average daily volume to be down by a mid-single digit percentage year-over-year.

我們已經在執行我們的舉措，以贏迴轉移的銷量並加速銷售渠道的拉動，同時保持對收入質量的嚴格要求。經過我們的努力，預計到今年年底，我們的日均交易量水平將與去年 12 月持平。總體而言，我們預計 2023 年下半年美國日均成交量將同比下降中個位數百分比。

And second, looking at expense in the U.S. Domestic segment. The union wage rate increases included in our new labor agreement for the first year are higher than we originally planned. We started to accrue for the terms of the tentative agreement on August 1, while the contract is out for ratification. Further, we will address wage compression that resulted from the new labor contract. These additional labor costs in the back half of the year will be partially offset by the network adjustments we made in the second quarter.

其次，看看美國國內市場的費用。我們第一年的新勞工協議中包含的工會工資增幅高於我們最初計劃的水平。我們於 8 月 1 日開始計提暫定協議的條款，而合同即將批准。此外，我們將解決新勞動合同導致的工資壓縮問題。下半年這些額外的人工成本將被我們第二季度進行的網絡調整部分抵消。

Turning to the International segment. In the second half of the year, we expect the year-over-year volume growth rate to be similar to what we saw in the second quarter and revenue per piece growth to be flattish compared to the same period last year. And in Supply Chain Solutions, we expect second half revenue to be down by a high single digit percentage year-over-year, with full year revenue approaching $14 billion.

轉向國際部分。下半年，我們預計銷量同比增長率將與第二季度相似，每件收入增長將與去年同期持平。在供應鏈解決方案方面，我們預計下半年收入將同比大幅下降個位數百分比，全年收入將接近 140 億美元。

Moving to capital allocation. Our 2023 full year targets have not changed. We will continue to stay on strategy and invest in both efficiency and growth opportunities. Capital expenditures are still expected be about $5.3 billion, which includes completing the deployment of the first phase Smart Package Smart Facility in the U.S., continuing to expand our healthcare logistics footprint globally, expanding DAP internationally and investing in our Logistics-as-a-Service platform. We are still planning to pay out around $5.4 billion in dividends in 2023, subject to Board approval. And for the full year, we still plan to buy back around $3 billion of our shares.

轉向資本配置。我們的 2023 年全年目標沒有改變。我們將繼續堅持戰略並投資於效率和增長機會。資本支出預計仍約為 53 億美元，其中包括完成美國智能包裹智能設施一期的部署、繼續擴大我們的全球醫療保健物流足跡、在國際上擴展 DAP 以及投資我們的物流即服務平台。我們仍計劃在 2023 年支付約 54 億美元的股息，但須經董事會批准。全年我們仍計劃回購約 30 億美元的股票。

With negotiations behind us, we are moving our business forward. For our people, we have a platform for the future that continues to reward our employees, which helps us to deliver industry-leading service to our customers and enables us to win that volume and drive revenue quality. We will control what we can control, which means continuing to manage costs as we scale up the network with volume. And we are staying on strategy and investing through this cycle, which will enable us to grow in the most attractive parts of the market, make our integrated network even more efficient and continue to reward our shareholders.

隨著談判的結束，我們正在推動我們的業務向前發展。對於我們的員工來說，我們擁有一個面向未來的平台，可以繼續獎勵我們的員工，這有助於我們為客戶提供行業領先的服務，並使我們能夠贏得銷量並提高收入質量。我們將控制我們能控制的事情，這意味著在我們擴大網絡容量的同時繼續管理成本。在這個週期中，我們將堅持戰略和投資，這將使我們能夠在市場最具吸引力的領域實現增長，使我們的綜合網絡更加高效，並繼續回報我們的股東。

Thank you, and operator, please open the line.

謝謝您，接線員，請接通線路。

Our first question will come from the line of David Vernon of Bernstein.

我們的第一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的大衛·弗農（David Vernon）。

So Brian or Carol, I just want to understand kind of at a high level, what we should be expecting about the shape of inflation over the course of the contract. I know we're probably not going to get into too many of the details today, but I'd love to understand kind of from a CAGR perspective how you're set up for inflation over the life of this contract.

所以布萊恩或卡羅爾，我只是想從高層次上了解一下，我們應該對合同過程中的通貨膨脹形態有何預期。我知道我們今天可能不會討論太多細節，但我很想從復合年增長率的角度了解如何在這份合同的有效期內應對通貨膨脹。

Well, maybe I'll just start with some observations about the contract. And then Brian, you can provide details on the shape of the curve. As we got into the negotiations, David, it became very clear to me that we were negotiating on behalf of a number of stakeholders. We were negotiating on behalf of our people. We were negotiating on behalf of our customer. We were negotiating on behalf of our country. We were negotiating on behalf of our shareowners, and we were negotiating on behalf of UPS. And as I look at the handshake agreement that we achieved, I think we have a win-win-win for all stakeholders. I'll make that real for you.

好吧，也許我會首先對合同進行一些觀察。然後布萊恩，你可以提供有關曲線形狀的詳細信息。大衛，當我們進入談判時，我很清楚我們是在代表許多利益相關者進行談判。我們代表我們的人民進行談判。我們正在代表客戶進行談判。我們是代表我們的國家進行談判。我們代表股東進行談判，也代表 UPS 進行談判。當我看到我們達成的握手協議時，我認為我們對所有利益相關者來說都是雙贏的。我會讓這成為現實。

First, in terms of our people. they will continue to be paid the highest wage and benefits in the industry. They'll have better work-life balance, and the working conditions will also be improved as we'll be adding air conditioning on package cars starting January.

首先，就我們的人員而言。他們將繼續獲得業內最高的工資和福利。他們將獲得更好的工作與生活平衡，而且工作條件也將得到改善，因為我們將從一月份開始在包車上安裝空調。

For our customers, we avoided a work stoppage, and that would have been disruptive for them and for their customers. So I think that's a win.

對於我們的客戶來說，我們避免了停工，這會對他們及其客戶造成乾擾。所以我認為這是一場胜利。

For our country, as you know, we move 6% of the U.S. GDP every day, and there was no place for this volume to go. So we avoided a disruption to the economy with this handshake agreement.

對於我們國家來說，如你所知，我們每天轉移美國 GDP 的 6%，而這個數量沒有地方可以去。因此，我們通過這一握手協議避免了對經濟的干擾。

For our shareowners, I would say we also have a win, because as I look at the economic package over the 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate of this economic package is 3.3%. So I say that's a win.

對於我們的股東來說，我想說我們也取得了勝利，因為當我審視過去 5 年的經濟計劃時，該經濟計劃的複合年增長率為 3.3%。所以我說這是一場胜利。

And for UPS, we retain the flexibility we need to take care of our customers to provide seasonal health during the holidays, to add technology to drive productivity and efficiency. So I think it's a win-win-win. And maybe, Brian, you can talk about the shape.

對於 UPS 而言，我們保留了照顧客戶所需的靈活性，以在假期期間提供季節性健康服務，並添加技術來提高生產力和效率。所以我認為這是一個三贏的局面。布萊恩，也許你可以談談形狀。

Yes, Carol. I'm going to host the call, Dave, and go a bit deeper on it, but it's sort of a barbell type effect. We've got a majority of the increase -- or not majority, over 40% in year 1, and then years 2, 3, 4 quite reasonable from an inflation standpoint, and then with another step-up in year 5. But I'll go into more details on that when we host a call following the ratification.

是的，卡羅爾。我將主持這次電話會議，戴夫，並深入探討一下，但這有點像槓鈴效應。我們已經得到了大部分的增長——或者不是大多數，第一年超過40%，然後從通貨膨脹的角度來看，第二年、第三年、第四年相當合理，然後在第五年又出現了一次增長。但我當我們在批准後召開電話會議時，我們將詳細介紹這一點。

All right. And maybe just as a quick follow-up. Can you talk about what you need to do to win back some of the volume that you might have lost a contract uncertainty? I'm just wondering kind of how quickly you guys are expecting that to come back as we look into the -- what's baked into guidance.

好的。也許只是作為一個快速的後續行動。您能否談談您需要採取哪些措施才能贏回因合同不確定性而失去的部分銷量？我只是想知道，當我們研究指導方針中的內容時，你們預計這種情況會多快回來。

So it's all hands on deck to win back the volume that was diverted as a result of the labor negotiations. The first thing we did is that we stood up a control tower. This is the same kind of control tower that we use during peak to ensure that we can onboard this volume coming back without disruption. So that is up and running, and I'm very pleased with what I'm seeing in that regard.

因此，我們正在全力以赴，奪回因勞資談判而轉移的銷量。我們做的第一件事就是豎起一座控制塔。這與我們在高峰期間使用的控制塔相同，以確保我們可以在不中斷的情況下恢復此卷。這樣就已經啟動並運行了，我對我在這方面所看到的情況感到非常滿意。

We have, of course, mitigated all the risk that was still remaining because we didn't know the outcome of the contract. So that -- those high-risk customers are now shipping with us without any risk.

當然，我們已經減輕了仍然存在的所有風險，因為我們不知道合同的結果。因此，那些高風險客戶現在可以毫無風險地與我們一起運輸。

From a marketing perspective, we're doing a number of things. The first thing we're doing is we're amplifying our service message because we do have the best service in the industry. We are also amplifying our SurePost advantage because this is a very attractive product that you're shipping low-weight packages.

從營銷的角度來看，我們正在做很多事情。我們要做的第一件事是擴大我們的服務信息，因為我們確實擁有業內最好的服務。我們還擴大了 SurePost 的優勢，因為這是一款非常有吸引力的產品，您可以運送輕量包裹。

We are expanding our speed campaign because we are faster than our largest competitor in many, many markets. So we are amplifying our speed campaign. We are also expanding our weekend pickup to 4 markets. We are expanding our Saturday delivery by 890 postal codes. And we are launching new offerings inside Deal Manager, which is the tool that we use to win new small- and medium-sized businesses. There's a lot of effort underway to bring back this business that we lost and to win new business.

我們正在擴大我們的速度活動，因為我們在許多市場上比我們最大的競爭對手更快。因此，我們正在加強我們的速度運動。我們還將周末取貨範圍擴大到 4 個市場。我們正在將周六送貨範圍擴大到 890 個郵政編碼。我們正在 Deal Manager 中推出新產品，這是我們用來贏得新中小型企業的工具。我們正在付出很多努力來挽回我們失去的業務並贏得新業務。

Now I will tell you, it's not all going to happen at once. And so we understand that. We're working with our customers to bring it in as it can, but also as smoothly as we can for them as they've diverted.

現在我告訴你，這一切不會同時發生。所以我們明白這一點。我們正在與客戶合作，盡可能將其引入，同時在他們轉移後儘可能順利地為他們提供服務。

Looking at our volume in July, I will say that it was still down year-on-year, but not as much as the decline that we saw in June.

看看我們 7 月份的成交量，我想說的是，同比仍然有所下降，但降幅沒有 6 月份那麼嚴重。

Our next question will come from the line of Ken Hoexter of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Great. Maybe just a little bit, Carol, your thoughts into the peak season here. Maybe outside of the diversion, what was underlying in your thoughts here? And I think Brian mentioned still expecting negative all the way through the end of December. So maybe just a little bit of thoughts on the backdrop and the differences between the contract and what's going on economically.

偉大的。也許只是一點點，卡羅爾，你對這裡旺季的想法。也許除了消遣之外，你在這裡的想法是什麼？我認為 Brian 提到，到 12 月底，我們仍然預計會出現負面結果。因此，也許只是對背景以及合同與經濟狀況之間的差異進行一些思考。

Yes. We'll still have a peak even though we're winning back those volume that was diverted over time, we'll still have a peak. We are collaborating with the top 100 customers that represent 87% of our peak surge. So we're already starting to work with them on their operating plans for peak. Peak will be 21 days this year, the same as it was last year. We expect to see search in the 60% area this year. So it's still going to pick up. It's just from a different volume level. And we're well prepared to take -- to have another peak. For us, it's just another day with more volume.

是的。即使我們正在贏回那些隨著時間推移而轉移的交易量，我們仍然會達到峰值，但我們仍然會達到峰值。我們正在與前 100 名客戶合作，這些客戶占我們峰值激增的 87%。因此，我們已經開始與他們合作制定高峰運營計劃。今年高峰期為21天，與去年持平。我們預計今年搜索量將覆蓋 60% 的區域。所以它仍然會回升。只是音量級別不同而已。我們已做好充分準備迎接另一個高峰。對我們來說，這只是交易量增加的又一天。

Our next question will come from the line of Amit Mehrotra of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Brian, can you help us on the guidance change, just attribute that guidance change to volume diversion and then maybe the difference in terms of what you accrued on the wages. And I don't know if you provided this in your prepared remarks, but the monthly cadence of domestic volumes in June and July. And then lastly, Carol, we started the year at 12% margin expectations for domestic. We went down to 11%. Now we're probably around 10%. Obviously, we're in a completely different world, and you have a new wage deal. Just provide your thoughts around 3.3% inflation, doesn't seem like an enormous hurdle. When do you -- has -- what's happened over the last 7 months changed kind of your view on what you think the return profile of this business is from an operating margin perspective in the domestic business? And when we can get back to like a positive trajectory in that?

布萊恩，你能否幫助我們改變指導方針，將指導方針的變化歸因於銷量轉移，然後可能是你應計工資的差異。我不知道您是否在準備好的發言中提供了這一點，但是 6 月和 7 月國內銷量的月度節奏。最後，卡羅爾，我們年初的國內利潤率預期為 12%。我們下降到了 11%。現在我們大概是10%左右。顯然，我們處於一個完全不同的世界，而且你有一個新的工資協議。請提供您對 3.3% 通脹率的看法，這似乎並不是一個巨大的障礙。從國內業務的營業利潤率角度來看，過去 7 個月發生的事情何時改變了您對該業務回報狀況的看法？我們什麼時候才能回到積極的軌道呢？

Amit, thanks for the question. So from a guide perspective, we went from $97 billion to $93 billion in revenue. That's a $4 billion change. About $1 billion of that is from the softer volume Carol talked about in the second quarter, the higher diversion; and about $3 billion is coming from the second half, as we think about volume and exiting the second quarter, down 12%.

阿米特，謝謝你的提問。因此，從指導角度來看，我們的收入從 970 億美元增加到 930 億美元。這是 40 億美元的變化。其中大約 10 億美元來自卡羅爾在第二季度談到的銷量疲軟、更高的轉移；考慮到第二季度的交易量和退出情況，下半年的收入約為 30 億美元，下降了 12%。

You'll remember, in March and April, we were down 7%, but June exited at minus 12%. So if we take that minus 12% exit and you get to flat by the end of the year, that glide over the balance of the year is about -- it's down mid-single digit, down about 6%. From a profit standpoint, we went from -- we dropped about $1.4 billion in profit to $11 billion or 11.8% margin. And most of that is coming from the domestic side, about $1 billion. That $1 billion, Amit, is split fairly evenly between wages and then also the lower volume I just referenced. There was a $400 million piece related to some inconsistent recovery in the euro inflation and interest rates. Germany's in a recession and a bit of Asia, but the vast majority is really split, half and half between wages and volume.

您會記得，3 月和 4 月，我們下跌了 7%，但 6 月的跌幅為 -12%。因此，如果我們採用負 12% 的退出率，到年底就會持平，那麼今年剩餘時間的下滑幅度約為——下降了個位數，下降了約 6%。從利潤的角度來看，我們的利潤從大約 14 億美元下降到 110 億美元，即 11.8% 的利潤率。其中大部分來自國內，約為 10 億美元。阿米特，這 10 億美元在工資和我剛才提到的較低金額之間相當平均地分配。其中有 4 億美元的部分與歐元通脹和利率復甦的不一致有關。德國和亞洲都處於衰退之中，但絕大多數國家的情況確實各不相同，工資和產量各佔一半。

And on the monthly cadence, we were down 12% in June. And down double digit in July, but better than 12%.

從月度節奏來看，6 月份我們下降了 12%。 7 月份下降了兩位數，但好於 12%。

On your question about margin. As we got into the negotiation with Teamsters, and this is true for any negotiation, there are some things that are very important. And one thing that was very important for Teamster leadership was to front-load some of the wage inflation. And we agreed to do that. So that does put a little pressure on the margin, as Brian pointed out. But that doesn't change the destination. It just changes the journey. We'll have a bit of pressure for the next year, through August of next year. But then the inflation is very manageable. So I see a path back to 12% or higher margins in the U.S. because of all the investments that we're making to drive productivity. And a good proof point of that is what we did in the second quarter. So let me give you an example of just one of our initiatives, which is Smart Package Smart Facility.

關於你關於保證金的問題。當我們與卡車司機進行談判時，對於任何談判都是如此，有一些事情非常重要。對於卡車司機領導層來說非常重要的一件事是提前承受部分工資上漲。我們同意這樣做。因此，正如布萊恩指出的那樣，這確實給利潤帶來了一些壓力。但這不會改變目的地。它只是改變了旅程。明年，直到明年八月，我們都會面臨一些壓力。但通貨膨脹是非常可控的。因此，由於我們為提高生產力而進行的所有投資，我認為美國的利潤率有望回到 12% 或更高。我們在第二季度所做的就是一個很好的證明。因此，讓我舉一個我們的舉措之一的例子，即智能套餐智能設施。

We're now in over -- about 50% of the buildings in the United States. And 50% of those buildings have misload improvements from 1 in 400 to now 1 in 1,000. So as the buildings mature, they get better and more productive. As we think about the next phase of Smart Package Smart Facility, we're moving from where the pre-loaders are scanning the package to where the car is going to scan package. So think about the productivity that we will enjoy then. So it doesn't change the destination, just the journey. We plan to have an investor conference in the spring of '24. We haven't landed on a date yet. But during that investor conference, we will lay out 3-year targets, so you can understand the journey to get to a 12% or higher margin in the U.S.

我們現在覆蓋了美國大約 50% 的建築物。其中 50% 的建築物的誤載率從四百分之一提高到了千分之一。因此，隨著建築物的成熟，它們會變得更好、更高效。當我們考慮智能包裹智能設施的下一階段時，我們將從預裝載機掃描包裹的位置轉移到汽車將掃描包裹的位置。因此，請考慮一下我們屆時將享受到的生產力。所以它不會改變目的地，只會改變旅程。我們計劃在 2024 年春季召開投資者會議。我們還沒有確定約會時間。但在投資者會議期間，我們將製定 3 年目標，以便您了解在美國實現 12% 或更高利潤率的歷程。

Our next question will come from the line of Allison Poliniak of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的艾莉森·波利尼亞克。

Carol, I just want to see if you can expand a little bit on the productivity efforts in Smart Package, how we should think about that? I know a lot of the investment was going into this year. You're talking about 900 facilities in by the end of October. Does that productivity start to accelerate from here? How should we think about that in terms of an offset to some of the wage inflation going forward?

卡羅爾，我只是想看看你是否可以在 Smart Package 的生產力方面做一些擴展，我們應該如何考慮？我知道今年有很多投資。你說的是到 10 月底將有 900 個設施。生產力是否從這裡開始加速？我們應該如何考慮抵消未來工資上漲的部分影響？

Yes. So Smart Package Smart Facility is just one of the levers in our productivity toolkit. Our Network Planning Tools are powerful tools. They are powered by machine learning and AR. And if you think about it, we've just really completed the rollout of Network Planning Tools in 2020. So every year, we get better because the tools get better.

是的。因此，智能套餐智能設施只是我們生產力工具包中的槓桿之一。我們的網絡規劃工具是強大的工具。它們由機器學習和 AR 提供支持。如果你想一想，我們剛剛在 2020 年真正完成了網絡規劃工具的推出。所以每年，我們都會變得更好，因為工具變得更好。

And think about what the tools were enabled us to do in the second quarter. When we saw the volume starting to slow down and actually divert, we were able through our tools to move volume away from unautomated hubs to automated hubs. And let me make that real for you.

想想這些工具讓我們在第二季度能夠做什麼。當我們看到流量開始放緩並實際轉移時，我們能夠通過我們的工具將流量從非自動化中心轉移到自動化中心。讓我為您實現這一點。

Last year, of the volume that was started by our hubs in the United States, about 53% went through an automated hub. This year, 57% of the volume went through an automated hub. So the tools are making us more effective. And then we are introducing new technology inside of our buildings to make us more effective like automated label application and automated bagging and robotic small sort induction. And I can go on and on. It's kind of gig out on the tools, but it's a complement of tools that will help offset some of the wage pressure that we will see over the next year.

去年，在我們美國中心啟動的交易量中，約 53% 通過自動化中心。今年，57% 的流量通過自動化中心。因此，這些工具使我們變得更加高效。然後，我們在建築物內部引入新技術，以使我們更加高效，例如自動標籤應用、自動裝袋和機器人小分類感應。我可以繼續說下去。這是一種工具上的工作，但它是工具的補充，將有助於抵消我們明年將看到的一些工資壓力。

Our next question will come from the line of Brian Ossenbeck of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的布萊恩·奧森貝克。

Just wanted to see if disagreement now behind you and out for ratification. Has that changed any of your thinking about the timing and magnitude of GRI or pricing in general? Maybe, Brian, you can give more detail on RPP trends and mix in the U.S. And then, Carol, I wanted to see, you mentioned the SurePost Advantage. Can you just give some context around the USPS Ground Advantage product that just launched? And if you see that as a competitive threat now that it's been out there for a month or so, maybe some initial impressions of that service and what they're able to deliver and what it means for you.

只是想看看您現在是否已經擺脫了分歧並等待批准。這是否改變了您對 GRI 的時機和規模或總體定價的看法？也許，Brian，您可以提供有關美國 RPP 趨勢和組合的更多詳細信息。然後，Carol，我想看看，您提到了 SurePost 優勢。您能否介紹一下剛剛推出的 USPS Ground Advantage 產品的背景信息？如果您認為它是一種競爭威脅，因為它已經存在一個月左右了，也許您對該服務以及它們能夠提供什麼以及它對您意味著什麼有一些初步印象。

Yes, Brian. Thanks for the question. So look, every year, we evaluate the GRI to provide the right service at the right price for our customers. This year, we had guided to roughly 500 basis point improvement in rate, and then we had expected about 200 basis point headwind in fuel to land at about 3%. So we're staying with that guide for this year. Brian, coming up here in the fall, we'll take a look at next year. But the thing I would leave you with is we remain very disciplined on revenue management, and we'll continue to deliver value for the service we provide.

是的，布萊恩。謝謝你的提問。因此，我們每年都會評估 GRI，以便以合適的價格為我們的客戶提供合適的服務。今年，我們預計利率將提高約 500 個基點，然後我們預計燃料利率將下降約 200 個基點，以降至 3% 左右。因此，今年我們將繼續使用該指南。布萊恩，秋天來到這裡，我們明年再看看。但我想留給大家的是，我們在收入管理方面仍然非常嚴格，並且我們將繼續為我們提供的服務創造價值。

And on our SurePost product, it compares very favorably to the Post Office product, and we're going to continue to invest in that product. We like it a lot because of the delivery density associated with that product.

在我們的 SurePost 產品上，它與郵局產品相比非常有優勢，我們將繼續投資該產品。我們非常喜歡它，因為該產品的交付密度很高。

Our next question will come from the line of Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克（Ravi Shanker）。

Carol, can you give us a little more color on the $7 billion sales pipeline? Kind of what kind of customers, what kind of end markets? I kind of -- I haven't heard you guys talk about a sales pipeline before too often. How is that kind of building up or kind of expect it to come through over time? And also, can you give us an update on your largest customer, please? And kind of any changes to that relationship volumes there over the course of the potential kind of union docks?

卡羅爾，您能為我們介紹一下 70 億美元的銷售渠道嗎？什麼樣的客戶，什麼樣的終端市場？我有點——我以前沒有經常聽到你們談論銷售渠道。隨著時間的推移，這種積累或預期會如何實現？另外，您能給我們介紹一下您最大客戶的最新情況嗎？在潛在的聯合碼頭過程中，這種關係是否會發生任何變化？

The sales pipeline is across all customer segments with a real focus in the commercial area, small- and medium-sized business, of course, healthcare and enterprise. You name it, we're going after it. Our sales team are really excited about selling the value that we have to offer, which is just the best service in the industry.

銷售渠道遍及所有客戶群體，真正關注的是商業領域、中小型企業，當然還有醫療保健和企業。只要你說出它的名字，我們就會追尋它。我們的銷售團隊對銷售我們必須提供的價值感到非常興奮，這只是行業中最好的服務。

We've also identified about 50 customers that are target customers for our new pricing architecture, which we call Architecture of Tomorrow. This new pricing architecture doesn't fit everybody, but it does fit somewhere, based on their shipping needs, we could add pricing modifiers like day of week or Cube or ZIP code plus 4. So these pricing modifiers are very interesting to these targeted customers. And it won't be for everybody, but for some. So we're going to lean into that in a big way.

我們還確定了大約 50 個客戶，他們是我們新定價架構（我們稱之為“未來架構”）的目標客戶。這種新的定價架構並不適合所有人，但它確實適合某些地方，根據他們的運輸需求，我們可以添加定價修飾符，例如星期幾或立方體或郵政編碼加4。因此，這些定價修飾符對這些目標客戶來說非常有趣。它不會適合所有人，但適合某些人。所以我們將大力研究這一點。

And as it relates to our largest customer, we have a very good relationship with our largest customer. And the business is operating as we would expect it to be. We're on a glide path, but not a glide out.

由於這與我們最大的客戶有關，因此我們與最大的客戶有著非常好的關係。該業務正在按照我們的預期運營。我們正處於滑翔路徑上，但不是滑翔出去。

Our next question will come from the line of Chris Wetherbee of Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Chris Wetherbee。

I was wondering if you could comment on the 1.2 million packages per day. And how you think that comes back? I guess maybe the bigger question is does all of it come back? And maybe how long does it take to get there? And then, Brian, you've given us some help in the past on sort of quarter-to-quarter margin dynamics as we think about getting towards that full year number. Is there anything we should be thinking about 3Q versus 4Q? I know volatility volumes will be a little bit better in the second part of the back half of the year, but just curious about how that cadence might look.

我想知道您是否可以對每天 120 萬個包裹發表評論。你認為這會如何回歸？我想也許更大的問題是所有這些都會回來嗎？也許需要多長時間才能到達那裡？然後，布萊恩，當我們考慮實現全年數字時，您過去在季度利潤動態方面給了我們一些幫助。與第四季度相比，我們應該考慮什麼？我知道今年下半年的波動量會有所好轉，但我只是好奇這種節奏會是什麼樣子。

Well, the 1.2 million packages per day is about $1 million of diverted volume. In other words, volume that we had that diverted elsewhere, and about $200 million of sales that we couldn't pull through because of concerns about the outcome of the labor negotiation. As Brian commented, we think by the end of the year, we will pull back everything that diverted. And I think we're going to win that extra 200,000 packages as well. It doesn't happen overnight, of course. It's already starting to flow back in. But we think by the end of the year, we'll win it all back.

嗯，每天 120 萬個包裹相當於價值 100 萬美元的轉移量。換句話說，我們的銷量被轉移到了其他地方，而由於對勞資談判結果的擔憂，我們無法完成約 2 億美元的銷售額。正如布萊恩評論的那樣，我們認為到今年年底，我們將撤回所有轉移的內容。我認為我們還將贏得額外的 200,000 個包裹。當然，這不會在一夜之間發生。它已經開始回流。但我們認為到今年年底，我們將全部贏回來。

And Chris, just with respect to the phasing, we're really focused on the second half and the full year guide, but I would say both top line and profitability. Q3 will be more challenged than Q4 due to the ADV growth rates and seasonality. And we've got some onetime costs in the third quarter. So I would just think of Q4 being a bit stronger than Q3.

克里斯，就分階段而言，我們真正關注的是下半年和全年指南，但我想說的是營收和盈利能力。由於ADV增長率和季節性因素，第三季度將比第四季度面臨更大的挑戰。第三季度我們有一些一次性成本。所以我認為第四季度比第三季度強一點。

And you might ask, well, where does that volume go? And so we don't have great intelligence there, but we do have some market share intelligence through a tool that we use from Nelson IQ -- or NielsenIQ, pardon me. And what that would tell us, it's not perfect. But what I would tell us is that 1/3 went to the Post Office, 1/3 went to FedEx and 1/3 went to the regionals. So that actually directs our activities as when we think about how to win that set volume back.

您可能會問，那麼，該卷去哪裡了？因此，我們在那裡沒有很好的情報，但我們確實通過我們使用 Nelson IQ（或 NielsenIQ，請原諒）的工具獲得了一些市場份額情報。這告訴我們，它並不完美。但我要告訴我們的是，1/3 去了郵局，1/3 去了聯邦快遞，1/3 去了地區。因此，當我們思考如何贏回既定銷量時，這實際上指導了我們的活動。

Our next question will come from the line of Jordan Alliger of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的喬丹·阿利格（Jordan Alliger）。

I was wondering if you could give a little more color. I think I have a good sense on the domestic margin. It looks like there's a small piece in your profitability guide that's Supply Chain and International. So can you maybe talk about or unpack a little bit sort of the margins expectations for the full year on that? And if indeed, the U.S. margin should be at or around the 10% level, give or take.

我想知道你是否可以多一點顏色。我認為我對國內利潤有很好的判斷力。看起來您的盈利指南中有一小部分是供應鍊和國際。那麼您能否談談或解釋一下全年的利潤率預期？如果確實如此，美國的利潤率應該在 10% 左右。

So from a margin perspective, Jordan, we'd expect International full year to be 19% to 20%. SCS should be at 10%. And as you think about the International business, the second half ADV, we're expecting to be down around 6.5%. RPP should be flattish. And really, it stems from some of the challenging macro situation. We've got weak real export growth. Germany is in a recession. And then I would say, Europe and Asia ADV growth would bottom in Q3. Kate and the team are very focused on controlling what we can control, both on the air side and the headcount side to protect that. You saw she printed north of a 20% margin in the second quarter.

因此，從利潤率的角度來看，喬丹，我們預計國際全年利潤率為 19% 至 20%。 SCS 應為 10%。考慮到國際業務，下半年的 ADV，我們預計會下降 6.5% 左右。 RPP 應該持平。事實上，這源於一些具有挑戰性的宏觀形勢。我們的實際出口增長疲軟。德國正處於衰退之中。然後我想說，歐洲和亞洲的日均交易量增長將在第三季度觸底。凱特和團隊非常專注於控制我們可以控制的東西，無論是在空中還是在人員方面，以保護這一點。你可以看到她第二季度的利潤率超過了 20%。

SCS, I would expect full year revenue to approach $14 billion with a margin of about 10%. Forwarding rates and volume is stabilizing, but down year-over-year. The team does a good job of managing the buy-sell spreads, as you saw. Obviously, expanding healthcare is a strategic priority for the company, and they're also executing the cost initiatives.

SCS，我預計全年收入將接近 140 億美元，利潤率約為 10%。轉發率和數量正在穩定，但同比下降。正如您所看到的，該團隊在管理買賣價差方面做得很好。顯然，擴大醫療保健是該公司的戰略重點，他們也在執行成本計劃。

Our next question will come from the line of Jeff Kauffman of Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

I just wanted to ask a little bit about the labor contract economics. I know you said, we'll have a call on this after ratification, but you noted a number of about 3.3% CAGR on the economic benefits. And just off the wage, we're calculating a little higher than that. So could you do your best to break down the components that help us get to that 3.3%?

我只是想問一些關於勞動合同經濟學的問題。我知道您說過，我們會在批准後對此進行電話諮詢，但您指出了經濟效益的複合年增長率約為 3.3%。就工資而言，我們的計算略高於這個數字。那麼您能盡力分解一下幫助我們達到 3.3% 的組成部分嗎？

Jeff, so 3.3% is an all-in number, so it includes wages and benefits of the 2 net together. Rather than go into a lot of detail on this call, I'm going to host a call shortly after ratification, and I'll take you through all the details at that point.

Jeff，所以3.3%是一個總數字，所以它包括了工資和福利的2個淨值。我將在批准後不久主持一次電話會議，而不是在這次電話會議上討論很多細節，屆時我將向您介紹所有細節。

We can go line by line at that.

我們可以逐行進行。

I can go very deep then.

那我就可以走得很深了。

But we want to respect the ratification process.

但我們希望尊重批准過程。

Our next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的湯姆·瓦德維茨（Tom Wadewitz）。

Yes. I wanted to see if you could help us to think about kind of volume versus price. It seems like both are important, but they're kind of related, right, if you go for more price to offset higher inflation, then it could be a headwind to what you do on volume. So how do you think about managing between those 2? And then, I guess, that feeds into -- you've given us a lot to work with for 2023. But I think there's probably a lack of visibility for '24, whether should earnings be up in '24, obviously, we'd like to see that, but you've got through August, that headwind. So any broad commentary about how optimistic you might be on '24 in terms of domestic margin or earnings overall?

是的。我想看看你是否可以幫助我們考慮數量與價格的關係。看起來兩者都很重要，但它們是相關的，對吧，如果你追求更高的價格來抵消更高的通脹，那麼這可能會阻礙你在數量上所做的事情。那麼您如何看待這兩者之間的管理呢？然後，我想，這會影響到——你為我們提供了 2023 年的很多工作。但我認為，“24 年”可能缺乏可見性，“24 年”的收入是否應該增加，顯然，我們”我很想看到這一點，但你已經度過了八月的逆風。那麼，您對 24 世紀國內利潤率或整體收益的樂觀程度有什麼廣泛的評論嗎？

Well, we run the business as a portfolio. So we want both. We want volume and we want price, but price doesn't necessarily mean price increases. It means moving into segments that value our end-to-end network and have different products. So we run it as a portfolio. We want both. That's the easy answer to that question.

嗯，我們將業務作為一個投資組合來運營。所以我們兩者都想要。我們想要數量，我們想要價格，但價格並不一定意味著價格上漲。這意味著進入重視我們的端到端網絡並擁有不同產品的細分市場。所以我們把它作為一個投資組合來運行。我們兩者都想要。這就是這個問題的簡單答案。

And just on shaping the multiyear, Tom, as Carol mentioned, we'll come back in the spring and give you multiyear targets. Obviously, year 1 of the labor contract is the most expensive piece. That's in August to August. So 1H of '24 would expect to be under some pressure, the back half, less inflation. So we'll walk that for you in the early part of next year.

正如卡羅爾提到的，湯姆，就制定多年目標而言，我們將在春季回來並為您提供多年目標。顯然，勞動合同的第一年是最昂貴的部分。也就是八月到八月。因此，24 年上半年預計會面臨一些壓力，後半段通脹會減少。因此，我們將在明年初為您解決這個問題。

Our next question will come from the line of Bruce Chan of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 Bruce Chan。

I appreciate the time here. Carol, the DAP rollout has been very successful this year. And I know it's early to start thinking about 2024. But as far as what the longer opportunity is, does growth start to slow for that channel now that you've kind of reached critical mass? Or do you still see quite a bit of opportunity there? And then, Brian, just to follow up broadly on e-commerce demand trends. Have we kind of turned the corner there? Or are we still seeing a bit of an air pocket in terms of spending?

我很感激在這裡度過的時光。卡羅爾，行動黨今年的推出非常成功。我知道現在開始考慮 2024 年還為時過早。但就更長期的機會而言，既然已經達到了臨界規模，該渠道的增長是否會開始放緩？或者你仍然看到那裡有很多機會嗎？然後，布萊恩，只是為了廣泛跟進電子商務需求趨勢。我們已經扭轉局面了嗎？或者我們在支出方面仍然看到一些空氣袋？

So thanks for your comments about DAP. We're very pleased with that product, and we see nothing but growth ahead. Global growth. we are just scratching the surface when we think about DAP outside of the United States. And we continue to add new partners here in the United States, now up to 27 partners.

感謝您對行動黨的評論。我們對該產品非常滿意，我們只看到未來的增長。全球增長。當我們思考美國以外的民主行動黨時，我們只是觸及了表面。我們在美國繼續增加新的合作夥伴，目前合作夥伴數量已達 27 個。

One thing we're doing to continue to grow DAP is to make it easier to onboard the platforms. So we are introducing widgets, which are basically pre-programmed applications that a DAP partner can put into its website and avoid the user interface and API onboarding that can slow things down. The first widget that we introduced is a locator widget. So our DAP partner can put the locator widget into its website, and then you push a button and pops the closest UPS store to ship that package. So we're going to continue to make it easier to do business with as we continue to grow with this important part of our business.

為了繼續發展 DAP，我們正在做的一件事就是讓平台更容易上架。因此，我們引入了小部件，它們基本上是預編程的應用程序，DAP 合作夥伴可以將其放入其網站中，並避免使用可能會減慢速度的用戶界面和 API 入門。我們引入的第一個小部件是定位器小部件。因此，我們的 DAP 合作夥伴可以將定位器小部件放入其網站，然後您按下按鈕並彈出最近的 UPS 商店來運送該包裹。因此，隨著我們業務的這一重要部分的不斷發展，我們將繼續讓開展業務變得更加容易。

And then, Brian, just on the e-commerce demand trends, any broad commentary there?

然後，布萊恩，關於電子商務需求趨勢，有什麼廣泛的評論嗎？

Yes. We're looking at ESMO improving in the back end of the year. So from a macro standpoint, I think the trends are stable to improving in the U.S., obviously, under some more pressure internationally.

是的。我們期待 ESMO 在今年年底有所改善。因此，從宏觀角度來看，我認為美國的趨勢正在穩定改善，顯然，在國際壓力更大的情況下。

I mean clearly, what happened with e-commerce is the blow up during COVID-19. It blew up. And so now everything is kind of reverting back to where it was before COVID. We see that around the globe, which makes sense. And so this is a great place to think about growth from here on out.

我的意思很明確，電子商務發生的事情是在 COVID-19 期間爆發的。它爆炸了。所以現在一切都回到了新冠疫情之前的狀態。我們在全球各地都看到了這一點，這是有道理的。因此，這是一個思考從現在開始的增長的好地方。

Our next question will come from the line of Scott Schneeberger of Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題將來自奧本海默的斯科特·施內伯格（Scott Schneeberger）。

Brian, I believe you said you're expecting a bottoming in Europe and Asia in the third quarter. Just want to get a sense of cadence of -- and your optimism that it will improve in fourth quarter, just what you're seeing in trajectory on both there. And then also, if you could put into perspective just the domestic cost per piece, how you see that trajectory on that metric specifically?

布萊恩，我相信您說過您預計歐洲和亞洲將在第三季度觸底。只是想了解一下節奏感 - 以及您對第四季度會有所改善的樂觀態度，正如您在這兩個方面所看到的軌跡一樣。另外，如果您可以僅考慮每件國內成本，您如何看待該指標的具體軌跡？

So on the bottoming, we had -- we have thought we would have seen the bottom in Asia in Q2, which, I would say, it didn't recover, it stalled. In Europe, we think the bottom will be more in Q3, but there could be an elongated period here. So we're not putting in a lot of recovery into the international business going forward.

因此，在觸底時，我們認為亞洲會在第二季度觸底，我想說，它沒有恢復，而是停滯了。在歐洲，我們認為第三季度觸底將會更嚴重，但可能會出現更長的時間。因此，我們不會在未來的國際業務中投入大量復甦。

On the CPP basis, we're still calling for -- from a U.S. basis, we would look from a full year standpoint to be about 11.24%, which is about a 1.4% change from the 11.08% we had previously.

在 CPP 基礎上，我們仍然呼籲——從美國的角度來看，我們從全年的角度來看約為 11.24%，這比我們之前的 11.08% 變化了約 1.4%。

Our next question will come from the line of Stephanie Moore of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的斯蒂芬妮·摩爾 (Stephanie Moore)。

I'd want to touch a little bit on kind of your automation efforts as part of your ongoing productivity tools. I think you said last year, it was up 53%, went through some form of an automated hub, this year at 57%. Do you have kind of a line of sight on where that can go over time?

我想稍微談談你們的自動化工作，作為你們正在進行的生產力工具的一部分。我想你說去年增長了 53%，通過某種形式的自動化中心，今年增長了 57%。隨著時間的推移，您是否知道它會走向何方？

We do. We're going to come back in the spray at our investor conference and give you our sense of what we're calling network of the future. It's a very exciting opportunity for us to really automate this business. The good thing is we don't have to integrate our network because we're integrated. But we can do a better job of automating, and so we'll come back and give you all of that in the spring of next year.

我們的確是。我們將在投資者大會上再次亮相，向您介紹我們所說的未來網絡。對於我們來說，這是一個非常令人興奮的機會，可以真正實現這項業務的自動化。好處是我們不必整合我們的網絡，因為我們已經整合了。但我們可以在自動化方面做得更好，所以我們會在明年春天回來為您提供所有這些。

Our next question will come from the line of Brandon Oglenski of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基。

This is Eric Morgan on for Brandon. I just wanted to ask a follow-up on SurePost. Maybe could you give us an update on how much you're redirecting in the network today? And maybe you could fill us and if this was the topic of the labor negotiations? And if you did need to start in-sourcing more kind of on an accelerated basis, what kind of potential cost implications or inefficiencies there could be? And maybe some offsets there as well.

這是布蘭登的埃里克·摩根。我只是想詢問 SurePost 的後續情況。也許您能給我們介紹一下您今天在網絡中重定向的最新情況嗎？也許你可以告訴我們，如果這是勞資談判的主題？如果您確實需要加速內包，可能會產生什麼樣的潛在成本影響或效率低下？也許還有一些抵消。

Sure. So we were redirecting a little under 40% at the end of the second quarter. It was a point of the negotiations. We'd agreed to redirect 50%. No problem at all with that. No concern about cost because the delivery density with SurePost is really, really good.

當然。因此，我們在第二季度末調整了略低於 40% 的比例。這是談判的一個要點。我們同意重定向 50%。完全沒有問題。不用擔心成本，因為 SurePost 的投遞密度非常非常好。

Our next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

So I just had a couple of quick ones. So Brian, I think you said the labor deal is $500 million headwind in the back half relative to what you accrued for estimated in the prior guidance. I wasn't sure if that was a gross number or there was some productivity against that. And then, Carol, I wanted to ask about M&A, because it doesn't get enough attention. But I think you guys have done some interesting strategic acquisitions from Delivery Solutions. You also took a stake or a board seat on CommerceHub. These are small, but I view kind of as important deals kind of long-term view. Can you just talk about what they give you? And are there -- is there more in the pipeline? Because you're generating oodles of cash flow and wondering if there's an opportunity to tack on more deals even on the healthcare vertical, which is such a big vertical for you guys. If you can just expand on that.

所以我只吃了幾個快速的。所以布萊恩，我想你說過，相對於你在之前的指導中估計的金額，勞工協議在下半年會帶來 5 億美元的阻力。我不確定這是否是一個總數字，或者是否有一些生產力與之相對。然後，卡羅爾，我想問有關併購的問題，因為它沒有得到足夠的重視。但我認為你們已經從 Delivery Solutions 進行了一些有趣的戰略收購。您還持有 CommerceHub 的股份或董事會席位。這些雖然很小，但我認為從長遠來看，這些交易是很重要的。你能談談他們給了你什麼嗎？還有更多的計劃正在醞釀之中嗎？因為你正在產生大量的現金流，並且想知道是否有機會在醫療保健垂直領域進行更多交易，這對你們來說是一個很大的垂直領域。如果你能擴展一下的話。

Amit, the barbell shape of the contract, the $500 million is a gross number. We had assumed originally about $500 million, so it's actually 2x, what we thought.

阿米特，槓鈴形狀的合同，5億美元是一個總數字。我們最初假設約為 5 億美元，所以實際上是我們預期的 2 倍。

And on the acquisitions that we've made, we couldn't be happier because they are giving us enabling capabilities from a Delivery Solution greeting product from us to (inaudible), which is creating cold chain logistics for us in parts of the world that we didn't have that. So I couldn't be happier. And I should -- I don't want to miss out any of the companies that we've acquired. So we're pleased with Roadie, and what it's providing for us as well. So they're enabling capabilities.

對於我們所做的收購，我們感到非常高興，因為它們為我們提供了從交付解決方案問候產品到（聽不清）的支持能力，這正在為我們在世界部分地區創建冷鏈物流我們沒有那個。所以我高興極了。我應該——我不想錯過我們收購的任何一家公司。因此，我們對 Roadie 以及它為我們提供的服務感到滿意。所以他們正在啟用能力。

And as we look ahead, expect us to continue to acquire enabling capabilities, particularly in those areas that we really want to own. Healthcare logistics would certainly be one of those. Technology investments that give us platforms to accelerate the digital experience for our customers, absolutely expect us to lean into that space. And we'll be giving you updates as we go.

展望未來，期望我們能夠繼續獲得支持能力，特別是在我們真正想要擁有的領域。醫療保健物流肯定是其中之一。技術投資為我們提供了加速客戶數字體驗的平台，我們絕對希望能夠進入這個領域。我們將隨時為您提供最新信息。

Our last question will come from the line of Jon Chappell of Evercore ISI.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

I just want to tie together a couple of things from before. As you think about regaining that 1 million packages that was diverted and you think about your pricing path going forward, do you have to lead with price in the next 6 months to win the diverted traffic and then think about pricing from a new starting point in 2024? Or do you think it's strictly service your relationships? And that package flow will come back to you without adjusting the way you think about the revenue management?

我只是想把之前的一些事情聯繫起來。當你考慮重新奪回被分流的100萬個包裹並考慮未來的定價路徑時，你是否必須在未來6個月內以價格領先來贏得分流流量，然後從新的起點考慮定價2024 年？或者你認為這完全是為了你的人際關係服務？並且在不調整您對收入管理的思考方式的情況下，該包裹流會回到您身邊嗎？

We don't think we have to lead with price. Our customers did what they thought they had to do to protect their customers, but they're very happy with us. So it's about operating plans, making sure they come back to us without disruption to their business. That doesn't happen overnight. It's going to take a while, but we can bring that business back because of what we provide to them.

我們認為我們不必以價格為主導。我們的客戶做了他們認為必須做的事情來保護他們的客戶，但他們對我們非常滿意。因此，這與運營計劃有關，確保他們在不中斷業務的情況下回到我們身邊。這不會在一夜之間發生。這需要一段時間，但由於我們為他們提供的服務，我們可以恢復該業務。

All right. I want to thank everybody for joining us this morning. We look forward to talking to you soon, and that concludes our call.

好的。我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們期待盡快與您交談，我們的通話到此結束。