聯合包裹運送服務公司 (UPS) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Stephen, and I will be your facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the UPS Investor Relations First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好。我叫斯蒂芬，今天我將擔任你們的協調人。歡迎大家參加 UPS 投資者關係 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

It's now my pleasure to turn the floor over to our host, Mr. Ken Cook, Investor Relations Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給我們的東道主投資者關係官 Ken Cook 先生。先生，地板是你的。

Good morning, and welcome to the UPS First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Carol Tome, our CEO; Brian Newman, our CFO; and a few additional members of our executive leadership team.

早上好，歡迎來到 UPS 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的首席執行官 Carol Tome；我們的首席財務官 Brian Newman；以及我們執行領導團隊的一些其他成員。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that some of the comments we'll make today are forward-looking statements within the federal securities laws and address our expectations for the future performance or operating results of our company. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are described in our 2022 Form 10-K and other reports we file with or furnish to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports, when filed, are available on the UPS Investor Relations website and from the SEC. Unless stated otherwise, our discussion refers to adjusted results.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們今天要發表的一些評論是聯邦證券法中的前瞻性陳述，表達了我們對公司未來業績或經營業績的預期。這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，這些風險和不確定因素在我們的 2022 年 10-K 表格和我們向證券交易委員會提交或提供的其他報告中有所描述。這些報告在提交後可在 UPS 投資者關係網站和美國證券交易委員會獲取。除非另有說明，否則我們的討論指的是調整後的結果。

For the first quarter of 2023, GAAP results include after-tax transformation and other charges of $9 million or $0.01 per diluted share. A reconciliation to GAAP financial results is available on the UPS Investor Relations website along with the webcast of today's call.

2023 年第一季度，GAAP 業績包括 900 萬美元或攤薄後每股 0.01 美元的稅後轉型和其他費用。 UPS 投資者關係網站上提供了與 GAAP 財務結果的對賬以及今天電話會議的網絡廣播。

Following our prepared remarks, we will take questions from those joining us via the teleconference. (Operator Instructions)

在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將回答通過電話會議加入我們的人的問題。 （操作員說明）

And now I'll turn the call over to Carol.

現在我會把電話轉給卡羅爾。

Thank you, Ken, and good morning. Let me begin by thanking UPSers for once again delivering industry-leading service to our customers.

謝謝你，肯，早上好。首先，我要感謝 UPSer 再次為我們的客戶提供行業領先的服務。

Service defines UPS. It is one of our values, and I'm proud of our team who continue to make it a key priority. Another company value is safety. UPS drivers are among the safest in the industry. And every year, we invest millions of dollars in safe driving education and training. Our Circle of Honor program recognizes drivers who have achieved 25 years or more of accident-free driving. This year, we inducted more than 1,200 UPS drivers into the Circle of Honor bringing the total to more than 10,400 around the globe. Congratulations to these drivers on their achievements.

服務定義 UPS。這是我們的價值觀之一，我為我們的團隊感到自豪，他們繼續將其作為關鍵優先事項。另一個公司價值觀是安全。 UPS 司機是業內最安全的司機之一。每年，我們都會投資數百萬美元用於安全駕駛教育和培訓。我們的 Circle of Honor 計劃旨在表彰實現 25 年或更長時間無事故駕駛的駕駛員。今年，我們將 1,200 多名 UPS 司機納入榮譽圈，使全球的總數達到 10,400 多人。祝賀這些車手取得的成就。

Turning to our results. 2023 is proving to be an interesting year. In the U.S., relative to our base plan, volume was higher than we expected in January, close to our plan in February and then moved significantly lower than our plan in March, as retail sales contracted, and we saw a shift in consumer spending. For example, food as a percentage of household budget reached 9% in the first quarter compared to 7% a couple of years ago. U.S. discretionary sales are lagging grocery and consumable sales, and disposable income is shifting away from goods to services.

轉向我們的結果。事實證明，2023 年是有趣的一年。在美國，相對於我們的基本計劃，銷量高於我們 1 月份的預期，接近我們 2 月份的計劃，然後由於零售銷售收縮而大幅低於我們 3 月份的計劃，並且我們看到消費者支出發生變化。例如，食品佔家庭預算的百分比在第一季度達到 9%，而幾年前為 7%。美國可自由支配的銷售額落後於食品雜貨和消費品的銷售額，可支配收入正從商品轉向服務。

Outside of the U.S., export activity out of Asia remained weak, which negatively impacted revenue in both International and Supply Chain Solutions. In response, we focused on controlling what we could control. We remained disciplined on price. We increased penetration in the most attractive parts of the market. We manage the network with agility. We drove productivity, and we stayed on strategy.

在美國以外，亞洲的出口活動仍然疲軟，這對國際和供應鏈解決方案的收入產生了負面影響。作為回應，我們專注於控制我們能控制的東西。我們在價格上保持紀律。我們提高了在最具吸引力的市場部分的滲透率。我們靈活地管理網絡。我們提高了生產力，我們堅持戰略。

Looking at our first quarter financial results versus last year. Consolidated revenue was $22.9 billion, down 6%. Operating profit was $2.6 billion, a decrease of 22.8% and consolidated operating margin was 11.1%, a decline of 250 basis points while revenue fell short of our base plan due to a relentless focus on productivity, both operating profit and operating margin were in line with our base plan.

看看我們第一季度的財務業績與去年相比。綜合收入為 229 億美元，下降 6%。營業利潤為 26 億美元，下降 22.8%，綜合營業利潤率為 11.1%，下降 250 個基點，同時由於不懈地關註生產力，營業利潤和營業利潤率均符合我們的基本計劃與我們的基本計劃。

Moving to our strategic update. Through our Customer First, People Led, Innovation Driven strategy, we are investing to improve the customer experience and drive efficiency. Starting with Customer First, key investments here are driving growth in targeted customer segments like SMBs and health care. Looking at SMBs. We continue to invest in the international expansion of our digital access program, or DAP. We now have 16 countries producing DAP revenue. In the first quarter, total GAAP revenue was up 51.5% compared to last year, and we are on track to generate around $3 billion in GAAP revenue this year.

轉到我們的戰略更新。通過我們的客戶至上、以人為本、創新驅動的戰略，我們正在投資改善客戶體驗和提高效率。從客戶至上開始，這裡的關鍵投資正在推動目標客戶群的增長，例如 SMB 和醫療保健。看中小型企業。我們繼續投資於我們的數字訪問計劃 (DAP) 的國際擴張。我們現在有 16 個國家產生 DAP 收入。第一季度，GAAP 總收入與去年相比增長了 51.5%，我們有望在今年產生約 30 億美元的 GAAP 收入。

Did you know that in the U.S. about 1 out of every 4 DAP packages enters our network through a UPS store with more than 5,100 locations in the U.S. UPS stores are strategic assets. In fact, 85% of the U.S. population is within 10 miles of a store, giving customers ultra-convenient entry points to the UPS network, whether they're an SMB, shipping an item they've sold online, or a customer returning an item they buy. Given the strategic importance of these stores, we are leaning into investments here to improve the customer experience.

您知道嗎，在美國，大約每 4 個 DAP 包裹中就有 1 個通過 UPS 商店進入我們的網絡，UPS 在美國擁有 5,100 多個地點。UPS 商店是戰略資產。事實上，85% 的美國人口都在商店的 10 英里範圍內，這為客戶提供了進入 UPS 網絡的超便利入口點，無論他們是 SMB、運送他們在線銷售的商品，還是客戶退回他們購買的物品。鑑於這些商店的戰略重要性，我們傾向於在這裡投資以改善客戶體驗。

For example, the stores are rolling out self-service kiosks that enable customers to bypass the counter when they have shipments and return, even return with no box or no label. These kiosks make it easier for customers to get in and get out of the store. We've rolled out nearly 200 kiosks so far, and we'll deploy 1,000 by the end of October this year. And we're not stopping there.

例如，商店正在推出自助服務亭，使顧客在有貨和退貨時能夠繞過櫃檯，甚至可以在沒有盒子或沒有標籤的情況下退貨。這些售貨亭使顧客更容易進出商店。到目前為止，我們已經推出了近 200 個自助服務亭，我們將在今年 10 月底之前部署 1,000 個。我們並沒有就此止步。

Another area of focus is improving the claims process, which used to be a hassle for both customers and franchisees. In March, the UPS store launched an online claims portal to all U.S. locations. That's designed specifically for the needs of the store shipper. With this portal, claims that used to take weeks for resolution are now resolved within an average of about 2 days. One final comment on SMBs. In the first quarter, SMBs, including platforms made up 29.6% of our total U.S. volume. This is the 11th consecutive quarter of increased SMB penetration, and it's the highest level we've seen in more than 7 years.

另一個重點領域是改進索賠流程，這在過去對客戶和加盟商來說都是一件麻煩事。 3 月，UPS 商店推出了面向美國所有地點的在線索賠門戶。這是專為商店托運人的需求而設計的。有了這個門戶，過去需要數週才能解決的索賠現在平均在 2 天內得到解決。關於中小企業的最後評論。第一季度，包括平台在內的中小企業占我們美國總交易量的 29.6%。這是 SMB 滲透率連續第 11 個季度增長，也是我們 7 年多以來的最高水平。

Turning to health care. In the first quarter of 2023, we expanded our global footprint by opening nearly 1 million square feet of dedicated health care space, including our first facility in Germany. This facility provides customers a broad range of temperature-sensitive and handling solutions. Its location in the center of Germany connects our customer shipments, the fast-growing European health care market. The facility is also close to our European AirHub in Cologne, enabling customers to leverage the speed and reach of our global network.

轉向醫療保健。 2023 年第一季度，我們開設了近 100 萬平方英尺的專用醫療保健空間，包括我們在德國的第一家設施，從而擴大了我們的全球足跡。該設施為客戶提供廣泛的溫度敏感和處理解決方案。它位於德國的中心位置，連接著我們的客戶出貨量、快速增長的歐洲醫療保健市場。該設施還靠近我們在科隆的歐洲 AirHub，使客戶能夠利用我們全球網絡的速度和覆蓋範圍。

As a reminder, in the fourth quarter of 2022, we completed the acquisition of Bomi Group. And to date, revenue and cost synergies are running ahead of target. Further, we are continuing to invest in the global expansion of UPS Premier, which is now available in 45 countries with 4 more to be added this year. Our goal is to become the #1 complex health care logistics provider in the world. To help us get there, we plan to open a total of 7 dedicated health care facilities this year. In the first quarter, revenue from our health care portfolio reached $2.4 billion, and we expect to generate over $10 billion in health care revenue in 2023.

提醒一下，2022年第四季度，我們完成了對波密集團的收購。迄今為止，收入和成本協同效應都超額完成了目標。此外，我們將繼續投資於 UPS Premier 的全球擴張，現已在 45 個國家/地區提供服務，今年還將增加 4 個。我們的目標是成為全球排名第一的綜合醫療保健物流供應商。為了幫助我們實現這一目標，我們計劃今年共開設 7 家專門的醫療保健機構。第一季度，我們醫療保健產品組合的收入達到 24 億美元，我們預計到 2023 年將產生超過 100 億美元的醫療保健收入。

Turning to People Led. Let me discuss the progress of our negotiations with the Teamsters. Negotiations on a new contract that Teamsters are underway, and good progress has been made on many of our local supplemental agreement. Together, we've set up 5 subcommittees at the national bargaining table to take on key areas of the contract, which enables us to move faster. We are aligned on several key issues like solving the staffing needs for weekend delivery and ways to mitigate the summer heat in our package delivery vehicle. While we expect to hear a great deal of noise during the negotiation, I remain confident that a win-win-win contract is very achievable and that UPS and the Teamsters will reach agreement by the end of July.

轉向以人為本。讓我談談我們與 Teamsters 談判的進展。 Teamsters 正在就新合同進行談判，我們在許多地方補充協議方面也取得了良好進展。我們在全國談判桌上共同設立了 5 個小組委員會來處理合同的關鍵領域，這使我們能夠更快地採取行動。我們在幾個關鍵問題上保持一致，例如解決週末遞送的人員需求以及減輕包裹遞送車輛夏季炎熱的方法。雖然我們預計在談判期間會聽到很多聲音，但我仍然相信，雙贏合同是非常可以實現的，而且 UPS 和 Teamsters 將在 7 月底前達成協議。

Now let's move to the last leg of our strategy, Innovation Driven. We have the best, most efficient global integrated network in the world, and we are getting even better. Today, we operate our network with more agility than ever before. And when it comes to productivity, we are relentless about creating a virtuous cycle of improvement in our network. For example, our total service plan, which addresses running a predictable on-time network has delivered continued productivity improvements since being introduced last year. Our massive and highly complex network naturally generates efficiency when volume increases. But when volume levels drop, historically, it's been harder to generate productivity improvement. With total service plan, we have driven productivity even with declining volume.

現在讓我們進入我們戰略的最後一步，創新驅動。我們擁有世界上最好、最高效的全球綜合網絡，而且我們正在變得更好。今天，我們比以往任何時候都更加敏捷地運營我們的網絡。在生產力方面，我們堅持不懈地在我們的網絡中創造一個改進的良性循環。例如，我們的整體服務計劃解決了運行可預測的準時網絡的問題，自去年推出以來，生產力不斷提高。當容量增加時，我們龐大且高度複雜的網絡自然會產生效率。但是，從歷史上看，當交易量水平下降時，就更難提高生產率。通過整體服務計劃，我們在產量下降的情況下提高了生產力。

In the first quarter, U.S. volume declined by 5.4%, but hours declined even further, which resulted in improved productivity as measured by pieces per hour. As we've discussed last quarter, we've accelerated investment in our Smart Package Smart Facility RFID solutions, and plan to complete deployment in more than 900 buildings across the U.S. by the end of October. Throughout the process, we've continued to learn and improve which has enabled stronger results than we originally expected. In the facilities where we have this technology, we've got the frequency of (inaudible) from around 1 in 400 packages to 1 in 1,000 packages, which reduces miles, handles and costs, and it improves both the customer and employee experience. Innovation Driven is also about combining digital capabilities with our integrated network to improve the customer experience and efficiency.

第一季度，美國的銷量下降了 5.4%，但工時進一步下降，這導致以件數/小時衡量的生產率有所提高。正如我們在上個季度所討論的那樣，我們已經加快了對智能包裹智能設施 RFID 解決方案的投資，併計劃在 10 月底之前完成在美國 900 多座建築物中的部署。在整個過程中，我們不斷學習和改進，取得了比我們最初預期更好的結果。在我們擁有這項技術的設施中，我們的（聽不清）頻率從 400 個包裹中的 1 個增加到 1,000 個包裹中的 1 個，這減少了里程、處理量和成本，並改善了客戶和員工的體驗。創新驅動還包括將數字功能與我們的集成網絡相結合，以改善客戶體驗和效率。

Our upstream delivery density solution checks both boxes. This month, we are onboarding our second large national retailer, which gives us more opportunity to increase density as we can match volume in the UPS network with orders of participating customers. It's still early days of this initiative. As we learn, we continue to adjust the match rate algorithm, and we are happy with the results.

我們的上游交付密度解決方案同時選中了這兩個框。本月，我們將加入我們的第二家大型全國零售商，這使我們有更多機會增加密度，因為我們可以將 UPS 網絡中的數量與參與客戶的訂單相匹配。這項倡議仍處於早期階段。隨著我們的學習，我們繼續調整匹配率算法，我們對結果很滿意。

Lastly, our Innovation Driven initiatives are moving us towards our 2050 carbon neutrality goal. We are focused on the decarbonization of our global supply chain. In 2022, our Scope 1, 2 and 3 CO2 emissions declined by 6.9% from 2021. We've been investing in alternative fuel for more than 20 years and operate more than 15,600 alternative fuels and advanced technology vehicles.

最後，我們的創新驅動計劃正在推動我們實現 2050 年碳中和目標。我們專注於全球供應鏈的脫碳。 2022 年，我們的範圍 1、範圍 2 和範圍 3 二氧化碳排放量比 2021 年下降了 6.9%。我們投資替代燃料已有 20 多年，運營著超過 15,600 輛替代燃料和先進技術車輛。

Recently, we took delivery of 10 fully electric Class 8 semi trucks in California. These trucks are quiet, and they are the first zero-emission semis to run in our UPS fleets. Our 2022 sustainability report was published on April 12. This is our 21st annual sustainability report, and you can find it on about.ups.com.

最近，我們在加利福尼亞接收了 10 輛全電動 8 級半卡車。這些卡車很安靜，而且它們是我們 UPS 車隊中運行的首批零排放半掛卡車。我們的 2022 年可持續發展報告於 4 月 12 日發布。這是我們的第 21 份年度可持續發展報告，您可以在 about.ups.com 上找到它。

Moving to our outlook for 2023. Last quarter, we provided a range for our 2023 financial targets. As we've discussed, there has been a deceleration in U.S. retail sales growth and certain non-U.S. markets remain challenged. As a result, we now expect to be at the low end of our previously provided revenue and operating profit margin range. Brian will share more detail in a moment.

轉向我們對 2023 年的展望。上個季度，我們提供了 2023 年財務目標的範圍。正如我們所討論的，美國零售銷售增長放緩，某些非美國市場仍然面臨挑戰。因此，我們現在預計將處於我們之前提供的收入和營業利潤率範圍的低端。 Brian 稍後會分享更多細節。

I've led through difficult times before, and I've seen the power of making the right decisions and the pitfalls of making wrong decisions. In uncertain market conditions, it's easy to fall into the trap of managing the business for the short term. While we will control what we can control, we will also stay on strategy. Over the past 3 years, we have fundamentally improved nearly every aspect of our business, and we are just getting started. UPSers are the best in the industry. And because of them, I am convinced we will come out of this cycle faster, stronger and with a wider lead on our competition.

我以前曾領導過困難時期，我看到了做出正確決定的力量和做出錯誤決定的陷阱。在不確定的市場條件下，很容易陷入短期管理業務的陷阱。雖然我們會控制我們能控制的東西，但我們也會堅持戰略。在過去的 3 年裡，我們幾乎從根本上改進了業務的各個方面，而我們才剛剛起步。 UPSer 是業內最優秀的。因為他們，我相信我們將更快、更強大地走出這個週期，並在我們的競爭中取得更廣泛的領先優勢。

With that, thank you for listening. And now I'll turn the call over to Brian.

感謝您的收聽。現在我會把電話轉給布賴恩。

Thanks, Carol, and good morning. In my comments, I'll cover 4 areas, starting with the macro environment, then our first quarter results. Next, I'll cover cash and shareowner returns. And lastly, I'll review our updated financial outlook for 2023. Okay. Let's start with the macro.

謝謝，卡羅爾，早上好。在我的評論中，我將涵蓋 4 個方面，從宏觀環境開始，然後是我們第一季度的業績。接下來，我將介紹現金和股東回報。最後，我將回顧我們更新的 2023 年財務展望。好的。讓我們從宏開始。

In the first quarter, the macro environment was challenging from both a commercial and consumer perspective. The growth rate for U.S. manufacturing production fell throughout the quarter and was down 0.9% in March year-over-year. On the consumer side of the U.S. economy, the growth rate on services spending is continuing to outpace the growth rate on goods spending. And within the goods bucket, consumers spent more on essential items like groceries, which tend to be purchased in store. These factors, plus a 5-point drop in consumer sentiment from February to March contributed to the reduction in our volume levels.

第一季度，從商業和消費者的角度來看，宏觀環境都充滿挑戰。美國製造業生產的增長率在整個季度都在下降，3 月份同比下降 0.9%。在美國經濟的消費者方面，服務支出的增長率繼續超過商品支出的增長率。在商品類別中，消費者在雜貨等必需品上花費更多，這些商品往往是在商店購買的。這些因素，加上 2 月至 3 月消費者信心下降 5 個百分點，導致我們的銷量水平下降。

Outside the U.S., in the first quarter, Asia exports remained weak, while Europe narrowly avoided a winter recession. In the face of all this, we responded with agility and remained focused on controlling what we could control to deliver great service for our customers and bottom line results for shareowners.

在美國之外，第一季度亞洲出口仍然疲軟，而歐洲則勉強避免了冬季衰退。面對這一切，我們靈活應對，並繼續專注於控制我們可以控制的事情，以便為我們的客戶提供優質服務並為股東帶來底線結果。

In the first quarter, consolidated revenue was $22.9 billion, down 6% from last year and slightly below our base plan expectations. Operating profit was $2.6 billion, a decrease of 22.8%. However, we achieved our base plan operating profit. Consolidated operating margin was 11.1%, a decline of 250 basis points compared to last year. For the first quarter, diluted earnings per share was $2.20, down 27.9% from the same period last year.

第一季度，綜合收入為 229 億美元，比去年下降 6%，略低於我們的基本計劃預期。營業利潤為 26 億美元，下降 22.8%。但是，我們實現了基本計劃營業利潤。綜合營業利潤率為 11.1%，與去年相比下降了 250 個基點。第一季度，每股攤薄收益為 2.20 美元，比去年同期下降 27.9%。

Now let's look at our business segments. In U.S. Domestic, revenue quality initiatives nearly offset the decrease in volume. And as the decline in volume accelerated toward the end of the quarter, we responded quickly by adjusting the network to eliminate costs while maintaining our industry-leading service levels. In the first quarter, we expected average daily volume to decline between 3% and 4%. For the quarter, average daily volume was down 5.4% year-over-year, primarily because volume in March moved lower than we expected.

現在讓我們看看我們的業務部門。在美國國內，收入質量舉措幾乎抵消了銷量的下降。隨著到本季度末銷量加速下降，我們通過調整網絡來快速響應以消除成本，同時保持我們行業領先的服務水平。第一季度，我們預計日均交易量將下降 3% 至 4%。本季度，日均交易量同比下降 5.4%，主要是因為 3 月份的交易量低於我們的預期。

Looking at mix in the first quarter, we saw lower volume across all industry sectors with the largest declines from retail and high tech. B2C average daily volume declined 5.5% compared to last year and B2B average daily volume declined 5.4%. A bright spot in B2B in the quarter was returns, which was up 6.8% year-over-year. In the first quarter, B2B represented 42.7% of our volume, which was unchanged from a year ago. Additionally, the shift in product mix from air to ground that we saw in the fourth quarter of 2022 continued in the first quarter as customers made cost trade-offs and took advantage of the speed improvements we made in our ground network and further leveraged our SurePost product.

從第一季度的組合來看，我們看到所有行業的成交量均有所下降，其中零售和高科技領域的跌幅最大。 B2C 日均交易量與去年相比下降 5.5%，B2B 日均交易量下降 5.4%。本季度 B2B 的一個亮點是回報，同比增長 6.8%。第一季度，B2B 占我們業務量的 42.7%，與去年同期持平。此外，我們在 2022 年第四季度看到的產品組合從空中到地面的轉變在第一季度繼續，因為客戶進行了成本權衡並利用了我們在地面網絡中進行的速度改進，並進一步利用了我們的 SurePost產品。

Compared to the first quarter of last year, total air average daily volume was down 16.7%, ground declined 3% and within ground, SurePost grew 1.8%.

與去年第一季度相比，航空日均總量下降了 16.7%，地面下降了 3%，地面內，SurePost 增長了 1.8%。

Looking at customer mix, SMB average daily volume declined significantly less than our enterprise customers in the first quarter. SMBs including platforms made up 29.6% of our total U.S. volume, an increase of 120 basis points year-over-year. For the quarter, U.S. Domestic generated revenue of $15 billion, down 0.9%. Revenue per piece increased 4.8%, nearly offsetting the decline in volume. The combination of base rates and customer mix increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 500 basis points, driven by strong keep rates from our general rate increase and increased SMB penetration. Fuel drove 200 basis points of the revenue per piece growth rate increase. Remaining factors reduced the revenue per piece growth rate by 220 basis points, driven by the combination of negative product mix with ground packages outpacing air growth and lighter package weights.

從客戶組合來看，SMB 平均日交易量在第一季度的降幅明顯低於我們的企業客戶。包括平台在內的中小企業占我們美國總交易量的 29.6%，同比增長 120 個基點。本季度，美國國內收入為 150 億美元，下降 0.9%。每件收入增長 4.8%，幾乎抵消了銷量的下降。基本費率和客戶組合的結合使每件收入增長率提高了 500 個基點，這得益於我們的一般費率增長和 SMB 滲透率的強勁保持率。燃料推動每件收入增長率增加 200 個基點。其他因素使每件收入增長率降低了 220 個基點，這是由負面產品組合與地麵包裹增長超過空中包裹和更輕的包裹重量共同推動的。

Turning to cost. Total expense was relatively flat with an increase of 0.6% or $80 million in the first quarter. Higher union wage and benefit rates increased expense by over $300 million, primarily from a 6.1% increase in average union wage rates, driven by the annual pay increase for our Teamster employees that went into effect in August of 2022. The U.S. Domestic team did an excellent job pulling costs out of the network in response to lower volume. We managed hours down 5.6%, which was more than the decrease in average daily volume, and we reduced headcount throughout the quarter as volume growth rates decline. Together, these actions reduced expenses by more than $220 million, partially offsetting the increase in wage and benefit rates.

轉向成本。第一季度總支出相對持平，增長 0.6% 或 8000 萬美元。較高的工會工資和福利率增加了超過 3 億美元的費用，這主要是由於我們的 Teamster 員工的年度加薪於 2022 年 8 月生效，平均工會工資率增長了 6.1%。美國國內團隊做了一個出色的工作將成本從網絡中拉出以響應較低的數量。我們管理的工作時間減少了 5.6%，這超過了平均每日交易量的減少，並且隨著交易量增長率的下降，我們在整個季度都裁員了。這些行動共同減少了超過 2.2 億美元的開支，部分抵消了工資和福利率的增長。

Additionally, we reduced purchase transportation by $100 million, primarily from utilizing UPS [feeder] drivers to support our fastest ground ever and from continued optimization efforts, which enabled us to reduce trailer loads per day by 7.5% compared to the same period last year. The remaining variance was driven by multiple factors, including maintenance and depreciation. The U.S. Domestic segment delivered $1.5 billion in operating profit, which was slightly above our base plan and down 12.7% compared to the first quarter of 2022, and operating margin was 9.9%.

此外，我們減少了 1 億美元的採購運輸，主要是通過使用 UPS [支線] 司機來支持我們有史以來最快的地面運輸以及持續的優化工作，這使我們每天的拖車負載與去年同期相比減少了 7.5%。剩餘差異是由多種因素驅動的，包括維護和折舊。美國國內業務實現營業利潤 15 億美元，略高於我們的基本計劃，與 2022 年第一季度相比下降 12.7%，營業利潤率為 9.9%。

Moving to our International segment. We expected the macro environment to be bumpy and it was. Looking at Asia, export activity started off very weak due to the extended Lunar New Year holiday. It gradually recovered through the quarter, but at a slower pace than we anticipated. In Europe, the macro environment was a little better than we expected, which helped offset the weakness in Asia relative to our base plan.

轉到我們的國際部分。我們預計宏觀環境會崎嶇不平，事實確實如此。縱觀亞洲，由於農曆新年假期延長，出口活動開局非常疲軟。它在本季度逐漸恢復，但速度比我們預期的要慢。在歐洲，宏觀環境略好於我們的預期，這有助於抵消亞洲相對於我們基本計劃的疲軟。

In the first quarter, international total average daily volume came in as expected and was down 6.2% year-over-year. Domestic average daily volume was down 9.5%, which drove 3/4 of the total average daily volume decline. Total export average daily volume declined 2.8% on a year-over-year basis, driven by declines in retail and high tech market demand. Asia export average daily volume was down 8.9% and included a 20% year-over-year decline on the China to U.S. lane.

一季度，國際日均總成交量符合預期，同比下降 6.2%。國內日均成交量下降 9.5%，佔日均成交量總跌幅的 3/4。受零售和高科技市場需求下降的推動，日均出口總量同比下降 2.8%。亞洲出口日均量下降 8.9%，其中中國至美國航線同比下降 20%。

Through the first quarter, we remained agile and we flexed the network to match demand, reduced Asia block hours by more than the decline in Asia export volume and delivered excellent service to our customers.

在整個第一季度，我們保持敏捷，我們靈活調整網絡以滿足需求，減少的亞洲封鎖時間超過亞洲出口量的下降，並為我們的客戶提供優質服務。

In the first quarter, international revenue was $4.5 billion, down 6.8% from last year due to the decline in volume and a $161 million negative revenue impact from a stronger U.S. dollar. Revenue per piece was relatively flat year-over-year, but there were a number of moving parts, including a 370 basis point decline due to currency and a 180 basis point decline from demand-related surcharges. These were offset by an increase in the fuel surcharge of 230 basis points and an increase of 330 basis points due to the combination of a high GRI keep rate and a favorable product mix as export volume outperformed domestic volume.

第一季度，國際收入為 45 億美元，比去年下降 6.8%，原因是銷量下降以及美元走強對收入造成 1.61 億美元的負面影響。每件收入同比相對持平，但有許多變動因素，包括因匯率下降 370 個基點和需求相關附加費下降 180 個基點。這些被燃油附加費增加 230 個基點和 330 個基點所抵消，這是由於高 GRI 保持率和有利的產品組合相結合，出口量優於國內量。

Operating profit in the International segment was $806 million, down $314 million from the same period last year, primarily due to the decline in exports out of Asia and included a $97 million reduction in demand-related surcharge revenue and a $51 million negative operating profit impact from currency. Operating margin in the first quarter was 17.7%.

國際業務的營業利潤為 8.06 億美元，比去年同期減少 3.14 億美元，這主要是由於亞洲出口下降，其中包括與需求相關的附加費收入減少 9700 萬美元和營業利潤減少 5100 萬美元從貨幣。第一季度的營業利潤率為 17.7%。

Now looking at Supply Chain Solutions. In the first quarter, revenue was $3.4 billion, down $983 million year-over-year. Looking at key drivers, in forwarding softer global demand, especially out of Asia drove down market rates and volume, resulting in lower revenue and operating profit. We are continuing to manage buy/sell spreads and have taken steps to reduce operating costs in this business. Logistics delivered revenue growth driven by gains in our health care logistics and clinical trials business and increased operating profit.

現在正在研究供應鏈解決方案。第一季度，收入為 34 億美元，同比下降 9.83 億美元。從主要驅動因素來看，全球需求疲軟，尤其是亞洲以外的需求，導致市場利率和銷量下降，導致收入和營業利潤下降。我們將繼續管理買賣價差，並已採取措施降低該業務的運營成本。在我們的醫療保健物流和臨床試驗業務的增長以及營業利潤增加的推動下，物流實現了收入增長。

In the first quarter, Supply Chain Solutions generated an operating profit of $258 million and an operating margin of 7.6%. Walking through the rest of the income statement, we had $188 million of interest expense. Our other pension income was $66 million, and our effective tax rate for the first quarter was 24.8%, which was less than we anticipated in our base plan due to lower tax impacts from our employee stock awards.

第一季度，供應鏈解決方案產生了 2.58 億美元的營業利潤和 7.6% 的營業利潤率。瀏覽損益表的其餘部分，我們有 1.88 億美元的利息支出。我們的其他養老金收入為 6600 萬美元，我們第一季度的有效稅率為 24.8%，低於我們基本計劃中的預期，因為我們的員工股票獎勵對稅收的影響較小。

Now let's turn to cash and shareowner returns. In the first quarter, we generated $2.4 billion in cash from operations. Free cash flow for the period was $1.8 billion, including our annual pension contributions of $1.2 billion that we made in the first quarter. Also in the first quarter, we issued $2.5 billion in long-term debt that we are using to pay off debt maturing in 2023. And in the first quarter, UPS distributed $1.3 billion in dividends and completed $751 million in share buybacks.

現在讓我們轉向現金和股東回報。第一季度，我們從運營中產生了 24 億美元的現金。該期間的自由現金流為 18 億美元，其中包括我們在第一季度支付的 12 億美元年度養老金供款。同樣在第一季度，我們發行了 25 億美元的長期債務，用於償還 2023 年到期的債務。第一季度，UPS 派發了 13 億美元的股息，並完成了 7.51 億美元的股票回購。

Moving to our outlook for the full year 2023. In January, we provided a range for our 2023 financial targets due to the uncertain macroeconomic environment we saw at that time. Since then, the volume environment has deteriorated, especially in the U.S., driven by continued challenging macro conditions and changes in consumer behavior. As a result, we expect full year revenue and operating margin to be at the low end of the previously provided range.

轉向我們對 2023 年全年的展望。由於當時宏觀經濟環境的不確定性，我們在 1 月份提供了 2023 年財務目標的範圍。從那以後，由於持續具有挑戰性的宏觀環境和消費者行為的變化，銷量環境已經惡化，尤其是在美國。因此，我們預計全年收入和營業利潤率將處於先前提供範圍的低端。

For the full year 2023, we expect consolidated revenues of around $97 billion and consolidated operating margin of around 12.8% with about 56% of our operating profit coming in the second half of the year.

對於 2023 年全年，我們預計綜合收入約為 970 億美元，綜合營業利潤率約為 12.8%，其中約 56% 的營業利潤將出現在下半年。

In U.S. Domestic, we expect full year volume to decline around 3% versus 2022 with revenue per piece growth nearly offsetting the decline in volume. And operating margin is expected to be around 11%. In International, we anticipate both volume and revenue to be down by around 4%, and we expect to generate an operating margin of around 20% and in Supply Chain Solutions, we expect full year revenue to be around $14.3 billion and operating margin is expected to be around 10%.

在美國國內，我們預計全年銷量將比 2022 年下降 3% 左右，每件收入的增長幾乎抵消了銷量的下降。營業利潤率預計在 11% 左右。在國際業務方面，我們預計銷量和收入將下降約 4%，我們預計營業利潤率將達到 20% 左右，在供應鏈解決方案方面，我們預計全年收入約為 143 億美元，預計營業利潤率為 10% 左右。

We have proven our ability to adapt in a dynamic environment. We have many levers to pull on the cost side, and we will continue to control what we can control by delivering industry-leading service and remaining disciplined on revenue quality. We will also continue investing in growth and efficiency initiatives like international DAP, health care and Smart Package Smart Facility, which will help us come out of this economic cycle faster and stronger.

我們已經證明了我們在動態環境中的適應能力。我們在成本方面有很多槓桿，我們將通過提供行業領先的服務和保持收入質量的紀律來繼續控制我們可以控制的東西。我們還將繼續投資於增長和效率計劃，如國際 DAP、醫療保健和智能包裝智能設施，這將幫助我們更快、更強大地走出這個經濟周期。

Specifically, now that our volume is trending at the downside of our range, we are executing our plan to take out semi-variable and fixed costs, including in the U.S. air network, we are adjusting package flows to maximize utilization on our next-day flights, which enables us to reduce block hours in our 2-day operation. On the ground, we are pulling more volume into our large regional hubs further leveraging the automation in those buildings and enabling us to eliminate sorts in smaller buildings. Driving more consolidation on the ground could potentially allow us to reduce our overall building footprint in the U.S.

具體來說，既然我們的數量呈下降趨勢，我們正在執行我們的計劃以消除半可變和固定成本，包括在美國航空網絡中，我們正在調整包裹流量以最大限度地提高我們第二天的利用率航班，這使我們能夠減少 2 天運營中的輪轉時間。在地面上，我們正在將更多的流量吸引到我們的大型區域中心，進一步利用這些建築物中的自動化，並使我們能夠消除較小建築物中的分類。在實地推動更多整合可能會讓我們減少在美國的整體建築足跡

Internationally, based on the volume levels over the last couple of quarters, we further reduced scheduled flights to reflect lower market demand while ensuring we maintain agility in the network to quickly add flights where needed if volume returns more strongly than we expect. Across our global business, we will continue to manage headcount with volume levels. And in terms of overhead, we see opportunities to further reduce costs by leveraging technology.

在國際上，根據過去幾個季度的運量水平，我們進一步減少了定期航班以反映較低的市場需求，同時確保我們保持網絡的靈活性，以便在運量恢復比我們預期的情況下在需要時快速增加航班。在我們的全球業務中，我們將繼續根據數量水平管理員工人數。在管理費用方面，我們看到了通過利用技術進一步降低成本的機會。

Now let's turn to capital allocation. Our plans have not changed. We will continue to make long-term investments to support our strategy and capture growth coming out of this cycle. We still expect 2023 capital expenditures to be about $5.3 billion, including investments in automation, and we'll add 2.3 million square feet of health care logistics space to our global network this year. We'll also complete the deployment of the first phase of Smart Package Smart Facility in the U.S., expand DAP internationally, and continue building out our Logistics As A Service platform.

現在讓我們轉向資本配置。我們的計劃沒有改變。我們將繼續進行長期投資，以支持我們的戰略並抓住這一周期帶來的增長。我們仍然預計 2023 年的資本支出約為 53 億美元，包括自動化投資，今年我們將在全球網絡中增加 230 萬平方英尺的醫療保健物流空間。我們還將在美國完成智能包裹智能設施第一階段的部署，在國際範圍內擴展 DAP，並繼續構建我們的物流即服務平台。

We are still planning to pay out around $5.4 billion in dividends in 2023, subject to Board approval. We still plan to buy back around $3 billion of our shares. And lastly, our effective tax rate for the full year is expected to be around 23.5%.

經董事會批准，我們仍計劃在 2023 年支付約 54 億美元的股息。我們仍計劃回購約 30 億美元的股票。最後，我們全年的有效稅率預計在 23.5% 左右。

In closing, despite the challenging macro backdrop, we will continue to provide industry-leading service to our customers, and we will stay on strategy. We are investing to make our network even more efficient and to strengthen our customer value proposition to enable us to capture growth coming out of this cycle.

最後，儘管宏觀背景充滿挑戰，我們仍將繼續為客戶提供行業領先的服務，並將堅持戰略。我們正在投資使我們的網絡更加高效，並加強我們的客戶價值主張，使我們能夠抓住這個週期帶來的增長。

Thank you, and operator, please open the lines.

謝謝，接線員，請打開線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of David Vernon of Bernstein.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自伯恩斯坦的大衛弗農。

So Carol, I wanted to follow up on your commentary around the productivity in lighter volumes. As you guys think about the way the business is performing against the lower volume outlook right now, how confident are you that if we get into a better volume environment, say, '24, '25, that some of those productivity gains are going to be able to be held?

所以卡羅爾，我想跟進你對更小批量生產率的評論。當你們考慮業務目前在較低產量前景下的表現方式時，如果我們進入更好的產量環境，比如 24 年、25 年，其中一些生產力的提高將會能舉辦嗎？

And then Brian, maybe just a follow-up. Can you give us a sense for what sort of magnitude of facility reductions you might be able to pull off here in the next couple of years?

然後是布賴恩，也許只是跟進。您能否告訴我們未來幾年您可以在這裡實現何種規模的設施削減？

Well, David, thank you for your question. First, as it relates to productivity, we introduced our total service plan last year. That's not one and done. That's the way we're going to operate our business forever. Productivity is a virtuous cycle here at UPS, and Nando and the team continue to find opportunities to drive productivity in down markets as well as up markets.

好吧，大衛，謝謝你的問題。首先，因為它與生產力有關，我們去年推出了我們的整體服務計劃。那不是一勞永逸。這就是我們將永遠經營業務的方式。生產力在 UPS 是一個良性循環，Nando 和團隊繼續尋找機會在市場低迷和市場上提高生產力。

And on the second part of the question, Dave, in terms of the scope of building consolidation, et cetera, Nando and the team are doing a nice job working a project called Network of the Future, still early days. We do have some facility sales planned in the second quarter and the back half of the year, but that doesn't really ramp up in terms of the opportunity to consolidate until '24 or '25 in that time frame.

關於問題的第二部分，Dave，就建築整合的範圍等而言，Nando 和團隊在一個名為“未來網絡”的項目中做得很好，仍處於早期階段。我們確實計劃在第二季度和今年下半年進行一些設施銷售，但在那個時間範圍內，直到 24 年或 25 年，就整合機會而言，這並沒有真正增加。

Just a little bit more color on that, perhaps, if you think about how we grew up as a company, if we build up a facility, we spun off the building and then we would build up another facility and spin off a building. As Nando and his team have looked at it, we found that we might be able to consolidate some of those spin-offs into highly automated buildings, drive productivity and not lose any drive time, not impact our customer service in any negative way. So we're looking at that. It's pretty exciting.

如果你想一想我們是如何成長為一家公司的，也許只是多一點顏色，如果我們建立一個設施，我們會剝離建築物，然後我們會建立另一個設施並剝離建築物。正如 Nando 和他的團隊所研究的那樣，我們發現我們可能能夠將其中一些衍生產品整合到高度自動化的建築物中，提高生產力而不浪費任何駕駛時間，不會以任何負面方式影響我們的客戶服務。所以我們正在研究。這很令人興奮。

But it's a change in culture. I don't think, Carol, we've actually closed buildings outside of the non-op side. So it's a pivot to be more optimized and focused.

但這是文化的改變。我不認為，卡羅爾，我們實際上已經關閉了非操作側以外的建築物。因此，這是一個更加優化和專注的支點。

Our next question will come from the line of Amit Mehrotra of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Carol and Brian. So Brian, the volume environment is obviously weaker and the weakness seems to have accelerated towards the end of the quarter. So I'm just trying to understand, where are we now? I mean, there obviously -- you're obviously confident about achieving the low end of the guidance. I'm just trying to understand that confidence in the context of the volume uncertainty.

卡羅爾和布萊恩。所以布賴恩，成交量環境明顯較弱，而且在本季度末似乎加速了疲軟。所以我只是想了解，我們現在在哪裡？我的意思是，顯然 - 你顯然有信心實現指導的低端。我只是想了解在數量不確定性的背景下的信心。

And then just as a follow-up, if I could, Carol, it's great that you think a win-win-win is still achievable, but the rhetoric is getting like really bellicose and so I'm wondering if you could give some color on that dynamic because it seems like it's costing you guys some volume right now. And I know you made an acquisition last year with delivery solution that gives you access to a lot of contingent capacity. So talk about the win-win-win against the rhetoric, against the investments you've made. There's a lot in there, but I'll let you answer it however you want.

然後作為後續行動，如果可以的話，卡羅爾，你認為雙贏仍然可以實現，這很好，但言辭變得非常好戰，所以我想知道你是否可以給一些顏色在這種動態下，因為它現在似乎讓你們付出了一些代價。我知道你去年通過交付解決方案進行了一次收購，讓你可以獲得大量的或有能力。因此，針對您所做的投資，談論雙贏與花言巧語。裡面有很多，但我會讓你隨心所欲地回答。

Yes. The biggest change in terms of the base case versus downside is the volume. We were looking at volumes of down 1% in the base case, and now we've pivoted to the downside of down 3%. The first quarter was an evolution about where we expected in January, February, a little bit lighter, but March was the trail off. And so as we've seen the macros to deteriorate, we look at things like IP manufacturing at ESMO. Those have continued to evolve. And so we basically adjusted the volume outlook for the first half of the year.

是的。基本情況與下行情況的最大變化是交易量。在基本情況下，我們預計銷量會下降 1%，現在我們已經轉向下降 3%。第一季度是我們對 1 月、2 月的預期的演變，稍微輕一些，但 3 月是尾聲。因此，當我們看到宏觀環境惡化時，我們會關注 ESMO 的 IP 製造等事情。這些一直在不斷發展。因此，我們基本上調整了上半年的銷量前景。

And so 2 reasons we're confident that the full year in the case of the Domestic business will be at 11%, we have confidence that the volume will come back post the summer related to customer conversations and some of the macro, which we think will trough in the middle part of the year. And also cost. We can go into more detail, but our ability to control costs and take more of the semi-variable out will help us deliver that 11% in the U.S.

因此，我們有信心全年國內業務將達到 11% 的原因有兩個，我們有信心在夏季後與客戶對話和我們認為的一些宏觀因素相關的交易量會恢復將在今年年中見底。還有成本。我們可以詳細說明，但我們控製成本和消除更多半變量的能力將幫助我們在美國實現 11% 的目標。

And maybe just a little more color on volume and then I'll go to your question about Teamster. As Brian detailed, the rate of acceleration in the year-over-year decline caused us pause because we were down around 3% in January, 5% in March -- February and 7% in March. As we look at April, April has stabilized relative to how we exited March. So we feel very good that volume has stabilized. If we look at the year-over-year decline in the U.S. of a little over 1 million packages today, we would attribute over 60%, nearly 62% of the decline due to macro and a planned decline with our largest customer. As you know, we're declining with them in a mutually agreed way. So it's really a macro story here, and we're delighted to see that the volume has stabilized.

也許只是在音量上多一點顏色，然後我會回答你關於 Teamster 的問題。正如 Brian 詳述的那樣，同比下降的加速速度導致我們停頓下來，因為我們在 1 月份下降了約 3%，3 月份下降了 5%——2 月份和 3 月份下降了 7%。當我們回顧 4 月時，4 月相對於我們退出 3 月的方式已經趨於穩定。因此，我們對成交量穩定感到非常高興。如果我們看看今天美國略高於 100 萬個包裹的同比下降，我們會將超過 60%、近 62% 的下降歸因於宏觀和我們最大客戶的計劃下降。如您所知，我們正在以雙方同意的方式拒絕他們。所以這真的是一個宏觀故事，我們很高興看到成交量已經穩定下來。

To Brian's point then what gives us confidence that the volume will come back in the back half of the year, I'll share with you our strategy as it relates to sales. And this is a multifaceted strategy. It starts with Keith, to your point about volume diversion which by the way, wasn't very much in the first quarter. We've assigned 127 high-impact executives to over 380 customers representing about 1/3 of our total volume. The role of the high-impact executive is to meet with our customers, update them on our ongoing negotiations with the Teamsters and to keep them with us.

就 Brian 的觀點而言，是什麼讓我們相信銷量將在今年下半年恢復，我將與您分享我們與銷售相關的戰略。這是一個多方面的戰略。它從 Keith 開始，順便說一句，第一季度並不是很多。我們已為 380 多家客戶分配了 127 名高影響力高管，約占我們總人數的 1/3。高影響力高管的職責是與我們的客戶會面，向他們更新我們與 Teamsters 正在進行的談判，並讓他們留在我們身邊。

The next element of our strategy is Protect. In the unlikely event of a work stoppage, we're not counting on that because we are confident we're getting our contract. But in the unlikely event, we do have contingency plans to protect.

我們戰略的下一個要素是保護。在不太可能發生的停工事件中，我們不會指望它，因為我們有信心獲得合同。但在不太可能發生的情況下，我們確實有應急計劃來保護。

The third leg of our strategy is to win back for any volume that has diverted and we did have some, what would be unreasonable to expect that we wouldn't have any. For volume that has diverted, we are going to win it back as they've told us they're coming back. And back to one customer just signed on the dotted line that they're coming back once we have a handshake.

我們戰略的第三步是贏回任何已轉移的流量，我們確實有一些，期望我們沒有任何流量是不合理的。對於已經轉移的數量，我們將贏回它，因為他們告訴我們他們會回來。回到一位剛剛在虛線上簽名的客戶，一旦我們握手，他們就會回來。

The third is to continue to sell. We are selling in the environment, and we want to sell and close and pull through those new customers.

三是繼續銷售。我們在環境中銷售，我們想要銷售、關閉和拉動那些新客戶。

And then finally is work the pipeline. We have a pipeline that's greater than $6 billion. That's hard to sell into right now because of that Teamster negotiation but we are going to go hard at it once we have that handshake deal. And we're going to go at it in a way that we've never done before because we will be using our dynamic pricing model. This is a very different way to go to market because we are creating value propositions for our customers that we haven't done before, using the architecture of tomorrow, pricing model that we've created which creates some modifiers to base price to win for our customer and our win for UPS.

最後是管道工作。我們有一條價值超過 60 億美元的管道。由於與 Teamster 的談判，現在很難賣掉它，但一旦我們達成握手協議，我們將努力做到這一點。我們將以前所未有的方式進行，因為我們將使用我們的動態定價模型。這是一種非常不同的進入市場的方式，因為我們正在為我們的客戶創造我們以前從未做過的價值主張，使用明天的架構，我們已經創建的定價模型，它為基本價格創建了一些修改器以贏得我們的客戶和我們為 UPS 贏得的勝利。

So that's really how we're getting confident in the volume projections that we shared with you this morning.

這就是我們對今天早上與您分享的交易量預測充滿信心的方式。

Now to your question about the Teamsters. If we told you from the beginning that it was going to be noisy and that's turning out to be true. But let me just comment on the recent rhetoric. There was some noise about supplemental agreements. We have over 40 supplemental agreements with the Teamsters. We have been negotiating in good faith with the Teamsters on those supplemental agreements and have made very good progress. In fact, Teamster leadership and UPS leadership were in Washington, D.C. last week, both given opening comments regarding the master agreement. So I feel like we are very much on track as to our time line to accomplish a win-win-win.

現在回答你關於 Teamsters 的問題。如果我們從一開始就告訴你它會很吵，而事實證明這是真的。但讓我就最近的言論發表評論。有一些關於補充協議的聲音。我們與 Teamsters 有 40 多項補充協議。我們一直在與 Teamsters 就這些補充協議進行真誠的談判，並取得了很好的進展。事實上，Teamster 領導層和 UPS 領導層上週都在華盛頓特區，他們都就主協議發表了開場評論。因此，我覺得我們在實現雙贏的時間表上非常順利。

And why am I confident about a win-win-win? Well, first of all, we are aligned on the North Star. And the North Star is that a thriving, growing UPS is good for Teamsters, it's good for UPS, and it's good for our people. And when you are aligned on the North Star, everything else can get worked out. Some of the issues that Teamsters have been very public about, and we talked about it the last time we had an earnings call, we're aligned. For example, we all agree that weekend delivery is table stakes because that's what consumers are expecting. We all agree.

為什麼我對三贏有信心？好吧，首先，我們在北極星上對齊。北極星是一個蓬勃發展、不斷發展的 UPS 對 Teamsters 有好處，對 UPS 有好處，對我們的員工也有好處。當你與北極星對齊時，其他一切都可以解決。 Teamsters 一直非常公開的一些問題，我們在上次召開財報電話會議時討論過，我們是一致的。例如，我們都同意週末送貨是賭注，因為這是消費者的期望。我們都同意。

It's how we go about doing that from an operating model perspective that we need to work it out. Because of restrictions in our contract, in some instances, we have Teamsters working 6 days a week. Teamsters don't like that. I don't like that. If you want to work 6 days a week, that's fine with me. But if you don't, we shouldn't force you. So we've got to work that out.

從我們需要解決的運營模型角度來看，這就是我們如何做到這一點。由於我們合同的限制，在某些情況下，我們的卡車司機每週工作 6 天。 Teamsters 不喜歡這樣。我不喜歡那樣。如果你想每週工作 6 天，那對我來說沒問題。但如果你不這樣做，我們不應該強迫你。所以我們必須解決這個問題。

And there are a number of other issues just like that. When we get to the bargaining table, we'll figure out a way to work it out. I'm highly confident that we're going to get a win-win-win agreement.

還有許多其他類似的問題。當我們到達談判桌時，我們會想辦法解決這個問題。我非常有信心我們將達成一個雙贏的協議。

But like any negotiations it's going to be noisy and a few bumps along the way, and I just had this argument with my husband about a puppy. It was noisy (inaudible) but in any negotiation that's going to be the case. That's certainly the case here. And that's why I go back to our sales strategy of these high-impact executives, putting our arms around our customers and making sure they're comfortable with us because we are confident we'll deliver our contract.

但就像任何談判一樣，過程中會很吵，還會有一些顛簸，我剛剛和我丈夫為了一隻小狗發生了爭吵。它很吵（聽不清），但在任何談判中都會如此。這當然是這裡的情況。這就是為什麼我回到我們的這些高影響力高管的銷售策略，擁抱我們的客戶並確保他們對我們感到滿意，因為我們有信心我們會履行我們的合同。

Our next question comes from the line of Allison Poliniak of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Allison Poliniak。

Just want to go back to the productivity side that the hours deployed -- the spread between hours deployed and the volumes certainly narrowed this quarter. I know you talked about some stabilization in April and certainly some cost that's going forward. Just any color on how we should think about that spread? Should it remain positive and maybe expand as we get towards the back half of the year?

只想回到部署小時數的生產力方面 - 本季度部署小時數與數量之間的差距肯定縮小了。我知道你在 4 月份談到了一些穩定，當然還有一些未來的成本。關於我們應該如何考慮這種價差的任何顏色？隨著我們接近今年下半年，它是否應該保持積極並可能擴大？

Yes. So look, we're going to need to take cost out at the balance of the year. It will be a big reduction in CPP. We were mid-single digits, Allison, in the U.S.. And candidly, if you told me wages were going to be up 6% and volume was going to be down 5%, I would have expected something like a double-digit CPP about 3 or 4 years ago. Nando and the team have done an extraordinary job of driving that 6% that we saw in the quarter, but we are expecting low single digits for the balance of the year as you think about CPP. It's going to come from 4 areas.

是的。所以看，我們將需要在今年的餘額中扣除成本。這將大大減少 CPP。艾莉森，我們在美國是中等個位數。坦率地說，如果你告訴我工資將上漲 6% 而銷量將下降 5%，我會期望 CPP 大約是兩位數三四年前。 Nando 和他的團隊在推動我們在本季度看到的 6% 方面做得非常出色，但我們預計今年餘下時間的增長率會低於 CPP。它將來自 4 個區域。

One, Carol talked about total service plan, and that's that reducing hours more than volume and managing the headcount. The second is our network. We deal with both ground and air, as you know. And in the ground side, how do we consolidate volume into automated facilities, close sorts and really focus on the efficiency there. On the air side, it's changing the package flows to better utilize the 1-day network and in fact, domestic block hours, they were down about 4% in the first quarter. We would expect to exit the second quarter at 2x (inaudible). The third piece that we're focused on is overhead. And following the technology group are delivering technology efficiency to allow us to do our jobs in the non-op side more efficiently, and we'll continue to reduce headcount as volume warrants. And lastly, fuel, we expect fuel prices to be down double digit year-over-year in the balance of the year, 2Q and 2H. So that will reduce both RPP and CPP.

第一，卡羅爾談到了總體服務計劃，那就是減少工作時間而不是數量和管理員工人數。第二個是我們的網絡。如您所知，我們同時處理地面和空中事務。在地面方面，我們如何將數量整合到自動化設施中，關閉分類並真正關注那裡的效率。在航空方面，它正在改變包裹流程以更好地利用 1 天網絡，事實上，國內封鎖時間在第一季度下降了約 4%。我們預計第二季度將以 2 倍（聽不清）結束。我們關注的第三部分是開銷。緊隨其後的技術團隊正在提高技術效率，使我們能夠更有效地完成非操作方面的工作，我們將繼續根據數量保證裁員。最後，燃料，我們預計燃料價格在今年餘下時間、第二季度和下半年將同比下降兩位數。因此，這將減少 RPP 和 CPP。

But those 4 things combined drive a high amount of confidence in a low single-digit CPP balance year.

但這 4 件事加在一起，使人們對低個位數的 CPP 餘額年充滿信心。

Our next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Tom Wadewitz。

That was really helpful, Brian, in terms of the cost per piece framework. Do you have a kind of a comparable thought for looking forward on revenue per piece and maybe also just some commentary on how the pricing environment is holding up? I think your primary competitors pretty focused on margins, cutting costs, cutting capacity. Obviously, you're doing a good job managing cost and capacity as well. So I think there's a lot of potential for a good pricing environment, but any thoughts on that? And also just how we think about the drivers of revenue per piece?

Brian，就單件成本框架而言，這真的很有幫助。您是否有類似的想法來展望每件收入，也許只是對定價環境如何維持的一些評論？我認為你的主要競爭對手非常關注利潤率、削減成本、削減產能。顯然，您在管理成本和容量方面也做得很好。所以我認為良好的定價環境有很大的潛力，但對此有什麼想法嗎？還有我們如何看待每件收入的驅動因素？

So I'm happy to, and I assume you're talking about the domestic business. So we had guided...

所以我很高興，我假設你在談論國內業務。所以我們指導...

Domestic.

國內的。

Originally to an RPP growth of about 3% this year. Carol mentioned, volumes are coming in a bit softer, but we're holding on to that RPP. And the RPP composition, we actually saw close to 5% RPP growth in the first quarter. That was driven by a tailwind in fuel, about 200 bps. That flips around Tom, in the back end of the year where we expect double-digit decline in fuel price. So the way I think about the GRI and the customer mix piece, that should be mid-single digit, about 5 points, and then we'll have about a 200 bps decline from fuel. That gets us right into that 3% range. We did see some headwinds in the product mix, the air-to-ground in the first quarter. That will moderate as we go into Q2 and the back end of the year. So that's the composition.

最初，今年的 RPP 增長率約為 3%。 Carol 提到，成交量有點疲軟，但我們堅持 RPP。而 RPP 構成，我們實際上在第一季度看到了接近 5% 的 RPP 增長。這是由燃料順風推動的，大約 200 個基點。在今年年底，我們預計燃油價格將出現兩位數的下降，這與湯姆有關。因此，我對 GRI 和客戶組合的看法應該是中個位數，大約 5 個點，然後我們將有大約 200 個基點的燃料下降。這讓我們正好進入了 3% 的範圍。我們確實在第一季度的空對地產品組合中看到了一些不利因素。隨著我們進入第二季度和年底，這種情況將會緩和。這就是組成。

And maybe just a comment on the pricing environment. The keep rate on the GRI is the highest it's been. In the United States, it's north of 60%. It is even higher outside of the United States.

也許只是對定價環境的評論。 GRI 的保持率是有史以來最高的。在美國，這一比例超過 60%。在美國以外的地區甚至更高。

Our next question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

You talked a little bit about what's going to drive cost per piece back half of the year. But maybe can you talk a little bit about some of the specific buckets. Notably, that other expense was quite a bit higher and is a more opportunity purchase transport? Just trying to get a sense for what -- where it's going to be impacted the most?

你談到了下半年將推動每件成本的因素。但也許你能談談一些具體的問題。值得注意的是，其他費用要高得多，而且購買交通工具的機會更多嗎？只是想了解什麼——它會在哪裡受到最大的影響？

Yes. CPP was -- we were able to take cost out of that. And as you look at the back end of the year, from an other perspective, we're certainly getting after a lot of the nonoperating costs. We're taking consulting spend out of the business. We're taking headcount out of the business. So we're really driving from a non-op perspective down to something closer to 4% of revenue from a cost perspective.

是的。 CPP 是——我們能夠從中扣除成本。當你從另一個角度看年底時，我們肯定會得到很多非運營成本。我們正在將諮詢支出從業務中剔除。我們正在裁員。因此，從成本的角度來看，我們確實從非運營角度將收入降低到了接近 4% 的水平。

And maybe just a comment on that other expense line item because it does look out of sorts. We are moving to Software as a Service. It's a line item move right? Brian, you're the finance person here, but rather than depreciation, it is going to move into expense.

也許只是對其他費用項目的評論，因為它看起來確實不合時宜。我們正在轉向軟件即服務。這是訂單項移動嗎？布賴恩，你是這裡的財務人員，但不是折舊，而是要轉為費用。

That's exactly right.

這是完全正確的。

So there's a little bit of a difference if you have Software as a Service for your technology deployment versus what you build.

因此，如果您將軟件即服務用於您的技術部署與您構建的內容，就會有一點不同。

Transition of buckets.

桶的過渡。

Got it. And then just a quick follow-up. You talked a lot about the domestic environment and stabilization perhaps in April, but what about the Asian export business? Is there anything on that front that gives a little confidence right now?

知道了。然後只是快速跟進。您可能在 4 月份談到了很多關於國內環境和穩定的問題，但是亞洲出口業務呢？現在在這方面有什麼可以給人一點信心的嗎？

Well, here's what we're seeing in the business. Week after week, it's better. It's still down year-on-year, but it's better, slowly coming out of this negative year-over-year decline of almost 20% in the first quarter. And Kate and her team are doing a masterful job of managing through that. In fact, if you look at productivity outside the United States, our ex-Asia export business down at 8.9%. Our block hours were down 14% and she's taking more block hours out in the second quarter, even with improvements just to optimize the air network.

好吧，這就是我們在業務中看到的。一周又一周，效果會更好。它仍然同比下降，但更好，從第一季度近 20% 的同比負下降中慢慢走出來。凱特和她的團隊在管理這方面做得非常出色。事實上，如果你看看美國以外的生產力，我們的亞洲以外出口業務下降了 8.9%。我們的封鎖時間減少了 14%，她在第二季度減少了更多的封鎖時間，即使只是為了優化航空網絡而進行的改進。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Carol and Brian, you talked about the sharp decline in mid-February. I guess you've seen this before where we've had some stabilization and then a sharp decline. Inventory still seems high. Maybe your thoughts on the backdrop and maybe, Brian, a little more International? You talked about getting to 20% margin on International, but it seems like pre-COVID, you were operating maybe 16% to 19%. Did something structurally change or the mix change that you think that, that is the new floor versus in a shifting environment, it goes a little bit lower?

Carol 和 Brian，你們談到了 2 月中旬的急劇下降。我想你之前已經看到過這種情況，我們先是穩定下來，然後急劇下降。庫存似乎仍然很高。也許你對背景有什麼看法，也許，布賴恩，更國際化一點？你談到在國際上獲得 20% 的利潤率，但似乎在 COVID 之前，你的利潤率可能在 16% 到 19% 之間。您認為結構性變化或混合變化是否發生了變化，即新樓層與不斷變化的環境相比，它會降低一點？

Yes, Ken. Happy to start, taking the last piece first. On International, we have guided a couple of years ago when we went out with a 3-year guidance to a 21.5% in International. Obviously, the world has changed a lot since then. But the mix of Kate's business that she's running and the agility on the network in terms of managing the airflow has, I don't know about a floor, but I think we're comfortable with the 20%. You'll see that 20% margin can fairly consistently Q2 through Q4. So we feel comfortable about that in terms of how the business evolves.

是的，肯。愉快的開始，先拿最後一塊。在國際上，我們在幾年前指導了 3 年指導，國際上達到 21.5%。顯然，從那時起，世界發生了很大變化。但 Kate 經營的業務和網絡在管理氣流方面的敏捷性相結合，我不知道最低限度是多少，但我認為我們對 20% 感到滿意。你會看到 20% 的保證金可以相當一致地從第二季度到第四季度。因此，我們對業務的發展方式感到滿意。

And on the volume question, again, it goes back to our sales strategy. We have pretty good visibility into the pipeline. We just got to pull that pipeline through. In today's environment, with the contract negotiation about 100 days out to completion, kind of hard to get a pull through, but we're going to pull it through when we get that handshake deal.

在數量問題上，它又回到了我們的銷售策略。我們對管道有很好的了解。我們只需要把這條管道拉過去。在今天的環境下，合同談判大約需要 100 天才能完成，有點難以通過，但當我們達成握手協議時，我們將通過。

Our next question comes from the line of Mr. Scott Group of Wolfe.

我們的下一個問題來自Wolfe 的Scott Group 先生的台詞。

Thanks. Brian, just a couple of follow-ups on the guidance. The 11% U.S. margin, how does that trend throughout the course of the year? And then the volumes were down -- the volume is down 3% for the year. How should we think about Q2? And is the back half sort of flat to positive? Is that what you're expecting?

謝謝。布賴恩，只是對指南的一些跟進。 11% 的美國利潤率，這一年的趨勢如何？然後銷量下降了——全年銷量下降了 3%。我們應該如何看待Q2？後半部分是平的還是正的？那是你期待的嗎？

Yes. I would say the -- in terms of shaping the year, Scott, maybe that helps. We don't manage in quarters but to help you shape. I referenced in the prepared remarks, 56% of our full year operating profit coming in the second half for the company. If you look at the U.S. Domestic business, I'd expect ADV year-over-year growth rates to bottom in Q2 and then improve from there to your point. And then that relates to the actions were -- as we think about margin, the actions we're taking on semi variable costs and margins will improve sequentially in Q2 and then throughout. Fuel PPG will reduce both RPP and CPP. So it's not a material profit impact. But I would expect operating margins to be better in the second quarter than in the first.

是的。我會說 - 就塑造這一年而言，斯科特，也許這會有所幫助。我們不分宿舍管理，而是幫你塑造。我在準備好的評論中提到，公司下半年全年營業利潤的 56%。如果你看看美國國內業務，我預計 ADV 同比增長率將在第二季度觸底，然後從那裡改善到你的觀點。然後與行動相關的是——當我們考慮利潤率時，我們對半可變成本和利潤率採取的行動將在第二季度和整個季度依次改善。燃料 PPG 將降低 RPP 和 CPP。所以這不是實質性的利潤影響。但我預計第二季度的營業利潤率會好於第一季度。

On the International side, I think ADV will gradually improve through the year. And as I mentioned, we'll have to see consistency of the op margin for the next 3 quarters of around 20% in the balance of the year.

在國際方面，我認為 ADV 將在這一年中逐漸提高。正如我所提到的，我們必須看到未來 3 個季度的運營利潤率在今年餘下時間保持在 20% 左右的一致性。

And then finally, in Supply Chain, revenue should be marginally better in Q2 than Q1, and you can hold that 10% as the full year op margin.

最後，在供應鏈中，第二季度的收入應該比第一季度略好，你可以將這 10% 作為全年營業利潤率。

Our next question will come from the line of Bruce Chan of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 Bruce Chan。

Yes. Thanks and good morning, everyone. Just want to ask here on the share shift issue. If you're able to quantify or even qualify the attrition that you're seeing and I just asked because I think there's been a lot of focus on your upcoming negotiations. But just based on your service investments and what are some pretty major, I think, operational changes at your largest competitor, I'm wondering if you're actually seeing any business wins?

是的。謝謝，大家早上好。只是想在這裡問一下關於股份轉移的問題。如果你能夠量化甚至限定你所看到的人員流失，我只是問，因為我認為你即將進行的談判受到了很多關注。但僅基於您的服務投資以及我認為您最大競爭對手的一些非常重要的運營變化，我想知道您是否真的看到了任何業務勝利？

Oh, we are. We are definitely seeing business wins. And I have to give a hat off to our sales team for selling through this environment. We are delivering packages for customers that we've never delivered before. Why? Because our service is the best in the industry.

哦，我們是。我們肯定會看到商業上的勝利。我必須感謝我們的銷售團隊在這種環境下進行銷售。我們正在為以前從未交付過的客戶交付包裹。為什麼？因為我們的服務是業內最好的。

But what we see with some of our long-term existing large customers is that their business is changing. And I can give you a few anecdotes, if that's helpful. One of our large customers report publicly every month, their same-store sales. This is a customer who for 80 quarters in a row had positive same-store sales and in the month of March saw a negative same-store sales. One of our other customers who has both in-store sales as well as online sales has seen a shift in their customer shopping behavior from online to stores. So they're shutting down shifts inside of their warehouses, which makes sense for them.

但我們從一些長期存在的大客戶身上看到的是，他們的業務正在發生變化。如果有幫助的話，我可以給你一些軼事。我們的一位大客戶每個月都會公開報告他們的同店銷售額。該客戶連續 80 個季度的同店銷售額為正，而 3 月份的同店銷售額為負。我們的一位同時進行店內銷售和在線銷售的客戶已經看到他們的客戶購物行為從在線轉向實體店。因此，他們正在關閉倉庫內的班次，這對他們來說很有意義。

So we see generally macro and a change in consumer behavior impacting our volume, but we're winning and then we just -- you've got to go win faster and we will win faster when the uncertainty is behind us. I'm quite convinced of the Teamster negotiation. Customers say, we'd like to ship with you, we're just going to sit on the sidelines until you're done. So we just need to get done, and we will.

因此，我們總體上看到宏觀和消費者行為的變化影響了我們的銷量，但我們正在獲勝，然後我們 - 你必須更快地贏得勝利，當不確定性已經過去時，我們會更快地贏得勝利。我非常相信 Teamster 談判。客戶說，我們想和你一起發貨，我們只是在旁觀，直到你完成。所以我們只需要完成，我們會的。

Our next question will come from the line of Brian Ossenbeck of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

So Carol, you just gave some commentary about some of the volume trends from some of the customers. Are you seeing anything that you would attribute to perhaps demand destruction from parcel rates going up with capacity constraints with some of the disruptions and surcharges, including on fuel? Do you attribute any of the volume weakness to that?

所以卡羅爾，你剛剛對一些客戶的一些銷量趨勢發表了一些評論。您是否看到任何您認為可能是由於包裹費率上升而導致運力限制以及一些中斷和附加費（包括燃料費）造成的需求破壞？您是否將任何成交量疲軟歸因於此？

And then, Brian, maybe you can elaborate a bit more on returns. You mentioned it was a pretty good growth driver in the quarter, but your largest customer is also floating the idea of perhaps charging for some returns in the future. I wanted to see if that was some of the consideration we should think about in terms of what that could do for that volume driver, which seems to be a pretty good one, at least for the time being?

然後，布賴恩，也許你可以詳細說明一下回報。你提到它在本季度是一個很好的增長動力，但你最大的客戶也提出了可能在未來收取一些回報的想法。我想看看這是否是我們應該考慮的一些考慮因素，即它可以為音量驅動器做什麼，這似乎是一個很好的驅動器，至少目前是這樣？

So to your first question, we don't see volume disruption because of pricing. We do see product change, however, if you looked at our air product in the quarter, it was down year-on-year more than ground. We see customers moving out of air to ground. Why? Well, we've really worked to improve our time in transit. So we've got the fastest time in transit now so you can get your package where it needs to go quicker than before and people are looking for value. So I can watch customer by customer moving out of air to SurePost by the way. SurePost is up in the quarter, almost 2%.

所以對於你的第一個問題，我們沒有看到由於定價而導致的銷量中斷。我們確實看到了產品變化，但是，如果您查看本季度我們的空氣產品，它的同比下降幅度超過地面。我們看到客戶從空中轉移到地面。為什麼？好吧，我們確實努力改善了運輸時間。因此，我們現在擁有最快的運輸時間，因此您可以比以前更快地將包裹送到需要運送的地方，並且人們正在尋找價值。所以我可以順便看到一個客戶一個接一個地從空氣中轉移到 SurePost。 SurePost 在本季度上漲了近 2%。

And on the returns business, it's a great business. The margins are attractive. We saw positive growth in the first quarter, as I called out. And a big piece of that is the over 5,000 stores, we have UPS stores across the country. Carol mentioned 7% of the volume originates in those stores and is a great, easy way for consumers too with the returns that are going on as the e-comm economy pursues. So we feel good about that and something we're building capability in every day.

在退貨業務方面，這是一項很棒的業務。利潤率很有吸引力。正如我所說，我們在第一季度看到了正增長。其中很大一部分是 5,000 多家商店，我們在全國都有 UPS 商店。 Carol 提到 7% 的銷量來自這些商店，這對消費者來說也是一種很好、簡單的方式，隨著電子商務經濟的追求，回報也在不斷增加。因此，我們對此感覺良好，並且我們每天都在構建能力。

And convenience matters for returns. If you want to get that package back, so you get credit back into your wallet, you want a convenient place to return. And with our locations, we're 85% of the U.S. population -- within 10 miles of 85% of the U.S. population were extraordinarily convenient.

便利對於退貨很重要。如果你想拿回那個包裹，這樣你就可以把錢放回你的錢包裡，你需要一個方便的退貨地點。憑藉我們的位置，我們占美國人口的 85% - 在 85% 的美國人口的 10 英里範圍內非常方便。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee of Citi Group.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

Just wanted to maybe hit on the cadence question again about sort of how this year progresses on the guidance. I think 56% of the profit in the back half of the year implies around $2.9 billion or so in 2Q? And just any thoughts around the step-up we might see between domestic and international?

只是想再次討論節奏問題，了解今年指南的進展情況。我認為下半年 56% 的利潤意味著第二季度大約 29 億美元左右？關於我們在國內和國際之間可能看到的升級有什麼想法嗎？

And then I guess just, Brian, on the RPP, CPP point, do you have a line of sight or does the guidance include a flip back to RPP outperforming or outpacing CPP by the end of the year? Is that a volume function? Is that more of a cost function? I just want to make sure I understand sort of how you guys are thinking about that?

然後我想，布賴恩，關於 RPP、CPP 點，你是否有一個視線，或者指導是否包括在年底前回到 RPP 表現優於或超過 CPP？那是體積函數嗎？這更像是一個成本函數嗎？我只是想確保我明白你們是怎麼想的？

So we're longer term, Chris, as we've talked to you, we're always going to drive for RPP to outpace CPP. We are in a bit of an extraordinary environment right now with the macros and every where they are. So we don't have margin expansion this year based on the guide. So you won't see that likely return until '24, but we feel good about the taking cost and CPP down to low single digit as RPP does come back. So I feel okay about that.

所以我們是長期的，克里斯，正如我們和你談過的那樣，我們總是會推動 RPP 超過 CPP。我們現在處在一個特殊的環境中，宏和它們所在的每一個地方。因此，根據指南，我們今年不會擴大利潤率。所以你要到 24 年才會看到它可能會回歸，但我們對將成本和 CPP 降至低個位數感到滿意，因為 RPP 確實回來了。所以我對此感覺很好。

And then your math is fairly accurate in the second quarter, you're doing the squeeze the right way.

然後你的數學在第二季度相當準確，你正在以正確的方式進行擠壓。

Our next question comes from the line of Ari Rosa of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ari Rosa。

So I just wanted to understand, how do you think about the softer economic environment potentially impacting your discussion with the union. Is there any dimension on which it maybe makes negotiations a little bit easier or it gives you a little bit more leverage vis-a-vis that discussion?

所以我只想了解，您如何看待可能影響您與工會討論的疲軟經濟環境。是否有任何方面可以讓談判變得更容易一些，或者它可以讓你在討論中有更多的影響力？

So we look out. We don't look in the current moment. We look out for where we both want to go as growing and thriving UPS is in the best interest of Teamsters, UPS and our people. So the current economic environment, it is what it is. But our negotiations are all about the future.

所以我們要小心。我們不看當下。隨著 UPS 的發展和繁榮符合 Teamsters、UPS 和我們員工的最大利益，我們會尋找我們雙方都想去的地方。所以目前的經濟環境，就是這樣。但我們的談判都是關於未來的。

Our next question will come from the line of Helane Becker of TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題將來自 TD Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

Hi, everybody, and thank you very much for the time. I wonder, Brian, if you could talk a little bit about what margins in the stores are like. I feel like you are hinting after one of your most profitable business lines. So I'm kind of wondering if you could put some more color to that.

大家好，非常感謝您抽出寶貴的時間。我想知道，布賴恩，你能否談談商店的利潤率是多少。我覺得你是在暗示你最賺錢的業務線之一。所以我想知道你是否可以給它添加更多顏色。

You talked about the UPS stores. So it's a great foundation for volume origin. We have a royalty relationship that generates a royalty stream that comes in from the stores as far as what income comes into UPS. And as that volume grows, our royalty grows.

您談到了 UPS 商店。所以它是體積起源的重要基礎。我們有一種特許權使用費關係，它產生了來自商店的特許權使用費流，就收入進入 UPS 而言。隨著數量的增長，我們的版稅也在增長。

We do look at the profitability of stores because I'm curious, I'm an old retailer, so are the stores profitable? The stores are very profitable, which means franchisees are happy. We add about 100 new stores every year because this is a great small business to own. And in terms of the royalty fee that comes into our company, there's some expenses against that. But if you look at the margin against that royalty fee, I would say it's the highest margin business that we've got.

我們確實看商店的盈利能力，因為我很好奇，我是一個老零售商，那麼商店盈利嗎？這些商店的利潤很高，這意味著加盟商很高興。我們每年增加大約 100 家新店，因為這是一家值得擁有的小企業。就進入我們公司的特許權使用費而言，有一些費用。但如果你看一下特許權使用費的利潤率，我會說這是我們擁有的利潤率最高的業務。

Excellent. Stephen, we have time for one more question.

出色的。斯蒂芬，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our last question will come from the line of Stephanie Moore of Jefferies.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Stephanie Moore。

Carol and Brian, I just wanted to kind of look through your updated guidance, particularly your consolidated margin outlook. Certainly I understand it's a very fluid environment as it relates to volumes that appreciate the additional color of you guys executing on what's in your control. But could you talk a little bit about your ability to maybe still hit that margin target and volumes were to deteriorate worse than you expected?

Carol 和 Brian，我只是想看看你們更新後的指導意見，尤其是你們的綜合利潤率展望。當然，我知道這是一個非常流暢的環境，因為它涉及到體量，這些體量欣賞你們在你們控制下執行的額外顏色。但是你能談談你是否有能力達到那個利潤率目標並且銷量比你預期的更糟？

And how you kind of framed that in your outlook as you kind of looked at the puts and takes for what is a pretty volatile year?

當您查看看跌期權時，您是如何在前景中構建這一點的？這是一個非常動蕩的一年？

Yes, happy to. And the whole reason we went out at the beginning of the year with 2 scenarios is we didn't know what was going to happen with the macros. And the macros continue to deteriorate in the first half of the year. So we had a playbook, which was the downside scenario. We pulled that off the shelf and are executing the TSP, the network changes for ground and air, the overhead of fuel. And so from a line of sight perspective, what we control, I feel good about the 12.8% that we've got in for the downside scenario. Obviously, the top line is what it is. But Carol said, we've got the largest pipeline of sales that we've had in about 5 years, which is a very big number, $6 billion. And so our ability to pull that in post the negotiation with the labor that gives us confidence on the top line.

是的，很高興。我們在年初提出 2 個方案的全部原因是我們不知道宏會發生什麼。並且上半年宏觀經濟繼續惡化。所以我們有一個劇本，這是不利的情況。我們把它從貨架上拿下來並正在執行 TSP，地面和空中的網絡變化，燃料的開銷。因此，從視線的角度來看，我們所控制的，我對我們在下行情景中獲得的 12.8% 感到滿意。顯然，最重要的是它是什麼。但卡羅爾說，我們擁有大約 5 年來最大的銷售渠道，這是一個非常大的數字，60 億美元。因此，我們有能力在與勞工談判後實現這一點，這讓我們對頂線充滿信心。

Well, you might share the split of variable, semi-variable and fixed?

那麼，您可能會分享變量、半變量和固定變量的拆分？

Yes. So well, I'm not sure anything is fixed anymore careful. So we do about 1/3 variable on the 70% in the semi and the fixed bucket. And we're really redefining that. As we talked earlier, we don't have a history of closing or selling buildings per se, but everything is on the table because in the new world, there has been a growth over 100 years of a bunch of buildings located around. And so Nando's ability to go and shut down some sorts and drive, we're going to match the volume. But the one thing Carol, I would add is when volume returns and make no mistake, volume will return to this business. We will be positioned very well to throw off cash because we'll have positioned the cost structure in a good way.

是的。好吧，我不確定是否已修復任何問題。所以我們在 semi 和 fixed bucket 的 70% 上做了大約 1/3 的變量。我們真的在重新定義它。正如我們之前所說，我們本身沒有關閉或出售建築物的歷史，但一切都擺在桌面上，因為在新世界中，周圍有一堆建築物已經增長了 100 多年。所以 Nando 的能力去關閉某些類型和驅動器，我們將匹配音量。但是卡羅爾，我要補充的一件事是，當銷量恢復時，毫無疑問，銷量將恢復到這項業務。我們將能夠很好地擺脫現金，因為我們將以一種很好的方式定位成本結構。

Thanks, Brian, and I want to thank everybody for joining us this morning. Look forward to talking to you next quarter, and that concludes today's call.

謝謝，布賴恩，我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。期待在下個季度與您交談，今天的電話會議到此結束。