聯合包裹運送服務公司 (UPS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Steven and I will be your conference facilitator today. And I would like to welcome everyone to the UPS Investor Relations Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. PJ Guido, Investor Relations Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

早安.我叫史蒂文，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。我謹歡迎大家參加 UPS 投資者關係 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。現在我很高興將發言權交給東道主投資者關係官 PJ Guido 先生。先生，地板是你的了。

Good morning and welcome to the UPS Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Carol Tome, our CEO; Brian Newman, our CFO; and a few additional members of our executive leadership team. Before we begin, I want to remind you that some of the comments we'll make today are forward-looking statements within the federal securities laws and address our expectations for the future performance or operating results of our company. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties which are described in our 2022 Form 10-K and other reports we file with or furnish to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

早上好，歡迎參加 UPS 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的執行長 Carol Tome；布萊恩紐曼，我們的財務長；以及我們執行領導團隊的一些其他成員。在開始之前，我想提醒您，我們今天發表的一些評論是聯邦證券法範圍內的前瞻性陳述，涉及我們對公司未來業績或經營業績的預期。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交或提供的 2022 年表格 10-K 和其他報告中進行了描述。

These reports, when filed, are available on the UPS Investor Relations website and from the SEC. Unless stated otherwise, our discussion refers to adjusted results. For the fourth quarter of 2023, GAAP results include a noncash, after-tax mark-to-market pension charge of $274 million, after-tax transformation and other charges of $154 million and a noncash, after-tax impairment charge of $84 million related to our Coyote trade name in our truckload brokerage unit. The after-tax total for these items is $512 million or $0.60 per diluted share. Additional details regarding year-end pension charges are included in the appendix of our fourth quarter 2023 earnings presentation that will be posted to the UPS Investor Relations website following this call.

這些報告提交後可在 UPS 投資者關係網站和 SEC 上取得。除非另有說明，我們的討論指的是調整後的結果。 2023 年第四季度，GAAP 業績包括 2.74 億美元的非現金稅後按市值計價的養老金費用、1.54 億美元的稅後轉型和其他費用以及 8400 萬美元的非現金稅後減值費用我們卡車經紀部門的Coyote 商品名稱。這些項目的稅後總額為 5.12 億美元，即稀釋後每股 0.60 美元。有關年終退休金費用的更多詳細資訊包含在我們 2023 年第四季財報的附錄中，該報告將在本次電話會議後發佈到 UPS 投資者關係網站上。

A reconciliation to GAAP financial results is available on the UPS Investor Relations website and also available in the webcast of today's call. Following our prepared remarks, we will take questions from those joining us via the teleconference. (Operator Instructions). And now I'll turn the call over to Carol.

UPS 投資者關係網站上提供了 GAAP 財務業績的調節表，也可在今天電話會議的網路廣播中查看。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將透過電話會議回答與會人員的問題。 （操作員說明）。現在我將把電話轉給卡羅爾。

Thank you, PJ and good morning. Let me begin by thanking UPSers for their hard work and effort. I'm proud of our team for their commitment to customer service and for once again making UPS the industry leader in on-time performance, not only during peak but throughout 2023. Looking at our volume trends for the fourth quarter. While total average daily volume or ADV declined 7.5% from last year, our performance was a marked improvement from what we reported in the third quarter. During the fourth quarter, our salespeople did an outstanding job of winning back diverted volume and pulling through new volume. In fact, U.S. domestic ADV surged 30% from the third quarter to the fourth, which was our highest sequential volume ramp ever.

謝謝你，PJ，早安。首先，我要感謝 UPS 員工的辛勤工作和努力。我為我們的團隊對客戶服務的承諾感到自豪，並再次使 UPS 在準時率方面成為行業領導者，不僅在高峰期間而且在整個 2023 年。看看我們第四季度的貨運量趨勢。雖然日均總交易量或 ADV 較去年下降 7.5%，但我們的業績較第三季報告有顯著改善。在第四季度，我們的銷售人員在贏回轉移銷售和拉動新銷售方面表現出色。事實上，美國國內 ADV 從第三季到第四季飆升了 30%，這是我們有史以來最高的連續銷量增幅。

By the end of December, we had won back and pulled through nearly 60% of the volume diverted during our labor negotiation. Winning back and winning new volume is part of a program we call Project Brown. And this program will continue into 2024. You will recall that at the end of the third quarter, we provided a range of expected revenue and operating profit for the fourth quarter. Looking at our fourth quarter results versus last year, consolidated revenue declined 7.8% to $24.9 billion, which was slightly below the low end of our expectation. Operating profit was $2.8 billion. A decrease of 27.1% from last year but slightly higher than the low end of our expectations. As a result, our consolidated operating margin was 11.2%, which was well within our expectation.

到12月底，我們已經贏回並完成了勞資談判轉移量的近60%。贏回並贏得新銷售是我們稱為「布朗計畫」的計畫的一部分。該計劃將持續到 2024 年。您會記得，在第三季末，我們提供了第四季度的一系列預期收入和營業利潤。從我們第四季的業績來看，與去年相比，綜合收入下降了 7.8%，至 249 億美元，略低於我們預期的下限。營業利潤為 28 億美元。較去年下降 27.1%，但略高於我們預期的低端。因此，我們的綜合營業利益率為 11.2%，完全符合我們的預期。

For the year, consolidated revenue was $91 billion, a decrease of 9.3%. Consolidated operating profit totaled $9.9 billion, 28.7% lower than last year and consolidated operating margin was 10.9%. We generated $5.3 billion in free cash flow during 2023 and we returned $7.6 billion to share owners in the form of dividends and share repurchases. Brian will provide more detail about our financial results in a moment. 2023 was a unique and quite candidly, a difficult and disappointing year. We experienced declines in volume, revenue and operating profit in all 3 of our business segments. Some of this performance was due to the macro environment and some of it was due to the disruption associated with our labor contract negotiations as well as higher costs associated with the new contract. Through the year, however, we controlled what we could control. And in many areas, we delivered the highest productivity results in our company history.

全年綜合收入為 910 億美元，下降 9.3%。綜合營業利潤總計 99 億美元，比去年下降 28.7%，綜合營業利益率為 10.9%。 2023 年，我們產生了 53 億美元的自由現金流，並以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還 76 億美元。布萊恩稍後將提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。 2023 年是獨特的、坦率地說、困難且令人失望的一年。我們所有三個業務部門的銷售、收入和營業利潤均出現下降。這種表現的部分原因是宏觀環境，部分原因是我們的勞動合約談判中斷以及新合約相關的成本上升。然而，這一年我們控制了我們所能控制的事情。在許多領域，我們取得了公司史上最高的生產力成果。

And I think most importantly, we stayed on our strategy of Customer First, People Led and Innovation Driven. Let me share a few examples of how our strategy is establishing a foundation for future growth. Starting with Customer First. In 2023, our health care portfolio achieved our target of $10 billion in revenue. Here, we've made strong progress towards our goal of becoming the #1 complex health care provider, in the growing $130 billion global health care logistics market. Our global network of health care-compliant distribution space topped 17 million square feet in 2023. And our acquisitions of Bomi Group and MNX Global Logistics have expanded our call chain capabilities and are enabling us to reach new markets and customers.

我認為最重要的是，我們堅持客戶至上、以人為本和創新驅動的策略。讓我分享幾個例子，說明我們的策略如何為未來的成長奠定基礎。從客戶至上開始。 2023 年，我們的醫療保健組合實現了 100 億美元收入的目標。在這裡，我們在不斷增長的 1,300 億美元的全球醫療保健物流市場中，朝著成為排名第一的綜合醫療保健提供者的目標取得了重大進展。到 2023 年，我們的全球醫療保健合規配送空間網路將達到 1,700 萬平方英尺。我們對 Bomi Group 和 MNX Global Logistics 的收購擴大了我們的呼叫鏈能力，並使我們能夠開拓新的市場和客戶。

To support growth in our international small package business, in December, we announced plans to build a new air hub at Hong Kong International Airport. This new air hub supports our plans to grow in the best parts of the market, including highly profitable Asia trade lines and will enable us to expand our export and import business in the region. During the year, we continued to grow our SMB penetration. In 2023, SMBs made up 28.6% of our total U.S. volume, an increase of 60 basis points from last year. Part of this growth came from DAP, our digital access program. DAP has transformed how small companies do business with UPS. And in 2023, we generated $2.9 billion in DAP revenue, an increase of 22% year-over-year.

為支持國際小包裹業務的成長，我們於 12 月宣布計劃在香港國際機場興建新航空樞紐。這個新的航空樞紐支持我們在市場最佳地區的發展計劃，包括高利潤的亞洲貿易航線，並使我們能夠擴大在該地區的進出口業務。年內，我們持續提高中小企業滲透率。 2023 年，中小企業占我們美國總交易量的 28.6%，比去年增加 60 個基點。這一增長的一部分來自我們的數位存取計劃 DAP。 DAP 改變了小公司與 UPS 開展業務的方式。 2023 年，我們的 DAP 營收達到 29 億美元，年增 22%。

Moving to People Led. In 2023, we delivered a labor agreement that provides certainty for the next 5 years. And because I'm a big believer in the power of 1 UPS, this year, we are returning to a policy of everyone back in the office 5 days a week. In terms of our culture, we are a network company, not just of logistics capabilities but of personal relationships too, which brings me to Innovation Driven. On our busiest peak days, we sort over 50 million packages in the U.S. and deliver more than 30 million packages worldwide. How do we do it? By leveraging the agility of our integrated network, powered by UPS technology and the skills of our engineers and operating team. Our network planning tools enabled us to quickly match capacity with volume across the network and drive productivity. Technology also enabled improvements to driver and helper route planning and dispatch, resulting in improvements in density and fewer seasonal support drivers than in prior years.

轉向以人為本。 2023 年，我們簽署了一份勞工協議，為未來 5 年提供了確定性。因為我堅信 1 UPS 的力量，所以今年我們將恢復每個人每週 5 天回到辦公室的政策。就我們的文化而言，我們是一家網路公司，不僅具有物流能力，而且還具有人際關係，這讓我想到了創新驅動。在最繁忙的高峰日，我們在美國分揀超過 5000 萬個包裹，並在全球範圍內投遞超過 3000 萬個包裹。我們該怎麼做呢？透過利用我們整合網路的靈活性、UPS 技術以及我們工程師和營運團隊的技能提供支援。我們的網路規劃工具使我們能夠快速匹配整個網路的容量和容量並提高生產力。技術還改善了司機和助手的路線規劃和調度，從而提高了密度，並比前幾年減少了季節性支援司機。

It might surprise you to learn that we typically see an increase in returns volume before Christmas. In the fourth quarter, we moved lightning fast to integrate Happy Returns. We made box-free, label-free returns available in over 5,000 UPS store locations, just 8 days after the acquisition closed. Happy Returns' digital experience helped drive returns volume in the fourth quarter with momentum extending into the first quarter of 2024. Finally, we continue to deploy transformative technology to increase efficiency within our warehousing facilities. The latest example is our state-of-the-art pick, pack and ship center in Louisville, Kentucky, that we call UPS Velocity. We named it Velocity because it leverages robotics, automation, machine learning and artificial intelligence to streamline fulfillment operation. This facility is capable of processing over 350,000 units per day and enables a best-in-class experience for our customers and their customers.

您可能會驚訝地發現聖誕節前退貨量通常會增加。在第四季度，我們以閃電般的速度整合了快樂回歸。收購結束後僅 8 天，我們就在 5,000 多個 UPS 門市提供無箱、無標籤退貨服務。 Happy Returns 的數位體驗幫助推動了第四季度的退貨量，並將這一勢頭延續到 2024 年第一季。最後，我們繼續部署變革性技術，以提高倉儲設施的效率。最新的例子是我們位於肯塔基州路易斯維爾的最先進的分類、包裝和運輸中心，我們稱之為 UPS Velocity。我們將其命名為 Velocity，因為它利用機器人技術、自動化、機器學習和人工智慧來簡化履行操作。該設施每天能夠處理超過 350,000 個單位，為我們的客戶及其客戶提供一流的體驗。

Our Customer First, People Led, Innovation Driven strategy is the foundation of our business and our continued execution of this strategy enabled us to exit 2023 with momentum. But momentum is not enough. We've decided to take some bold moves to rightsize our company for the future and to focus on the key enablers of growth. So today, we are announcing 2 actions. First, we plan to explore strategic alternatives for our truckload brokerage business, known as Coyote. Coyote is part of supply chain solution and is a business that is highly cyclical with considerable earnings volatility. We will keep you apprised as we move forward with this analysis. Second, we are going to fit our organization to our strategy and align our resources against what's widely important. This will result in a workforce reduction of approximately 12,000 positions and around $1 billion in cost out this year. Here, we've identified new ways of working and are calling this fit to serve.

我們的客戶至上、以人為本、創新驅動的策略是我們業務的基礎，我們對這項策略的持續執行使我們能夠以強勁的勢頭結束 2023 年。但動力還不夠。我們決定採取一些大膽的舉措，調整我們公司的規模，以適應未來的發展，並專注於成長的關鍵推動因素。所以今天，我們宣告了 2 項行動。首先，我們計劃為我們的整車經紀業務（稱為 Coyote）探索策略替代方案。 Coyote 是供應鏈解決方案的一部分，是一個具有高度週期性、獲利波動性相當大的業務。當我們繼續進行此分析時，我們會及時通知您。其次，我們將使我們的組織適應我們的策略，並根據廣泛重要的內容調整我們的資源。這將導致今年裁員約 12,000 個，成本支出約 10 億美元。在這裡，我們確定了新的工作方式，並將其稱為服務。

Let me end by sharing our 2024 outlook. In 2024, the small package market in the U.S. excluding Amazon, is expected to grow by less than 1% and projected market growth rates for the rest of our business segments suggest some improvement but not until the latter part of the year. In building our 2024 financial targets, we included the low end of our guidance on market growth. And for the high end of our guidance, included growth we should experience if we capture market share. In 2024, we expect to generate consolidated revenue ranging from approximately $92 billion to $94.5 billion and a consolidated operating margin ranging from approximately 10% to 10.6%. Given the nuances of our new labor contract, there will be stark contrast between our first half and our second half performance.

最後，我想分享我們對 2024 年的展望。到 2024 年，除亞馬遜之外的美國小包裝市場預計將成長不到 1%，而我們其他業務部門的預期市場成長率將有所改善，但要到今年下半年。在製定 2024 年財務目標時，我們納入了市場成長指引的下限。對於我們指導的高端，包括如果我們佔領市場份額，我們應該經歷的成長。到 2024 年，我們預計將產生約 920 億美元至 945 億美元的綜合收入，綜合營業利潤率約 10% 至 10.6%。鑑於我們新勞動合約的細微差別，我們上半年和下半年的表現將會形成鮮明對比。

First half earnings will be compressed and second half earnings will expand. In both the low and high end of our guidance range, we expect to exit the year with a U.S. operating margin of 10%. Brian will provide more details in a moment. UPS remains rock-solid strong. While our dividend payout is currently higher than our targeted payout of 50% of our prior year's adjusted earnings per share, we are confident in our future. As a result, the UPS Board approved a $0.01 increase in the quarterly dividend from $1.62 per share to $1.63 per share. This is the 15th consecutive year we have increased the UPS dividend. So now that 2023 is behind us, we look forward to seeing you at our upcoming Investor and Analyst Day on March 26. At that time, we will share our 3-year plans to grow and drive share owner value.

上半年獲利將被壓縮，下半年獲利將擴大。在我們指導範圍的低端和高端，我們預計今年美國的營業利潤率為 10%。 Brian 稍後將提供更多詳細資訊。 UPS 依然堅如磐石。雖然我們目前的股息支付高於上一年調整後每股收益 50% 的目標支付，但我們對未來充滿信心。因此，UPS 董事會批准將季度股息從每股 1.62 美元增加到每股 1.63 美元，增加 0.01 美元。這是我們連續第 15 年增加 UPS 股息。現在 2023 年已經過去，我們期待在 3 月 26 日即將舉行的投資者和分析師日見到您。屆時，我們將分享我們成長和提升股東價值的 3 年計畫。

With that, thank you for listening. And now I'll turn the call over to Brian.

在此，感謝您的聆聽。現在我將把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thanks, Carol and good morning. In my comments, I'll cover 3 areas, starting with the macro and our fourth quarter results, then I'll review our full year 2023 results, including cash and shareowner returns. And lastly, I'll provide comments on expectations for the market and our financial outlook for 2024. The macro environment in the fourth quarter showed improvement. However, in the transportation and logistics sector, conditions remained under pressure, both in the U.S. and internationally due to soft demand and overcapacity in the market. Throughout the quarter, we leveraged the agility of our integrated network to match capacity with demand and we were recognized by an independent third party for providing industry-leading service for the sixth peak in a row.

謝謝，卡羅爾，早安。在我的評論中，我將涵蓋 3 個領域，從宏觀和第四季度業績開始，然後我將回顧 2023 年全年業績，包括現金和股東回報。最後，我將對市場預期和我們對2024年的財務前景進行評論。第四季的宏觀環境有所改善。然而，由於市場需求疲軟和產能過剩，美國和國際運輸和物流行業的狀況仍面臨壓力。整個季度，我們利用整合網路的敏捷性來匹配容量與需求，並因連續第六個高峰提供業界領先的服務而受到獨立第三方的認可。

Looking at our financial results. In the fourth quarter, consolidated revenue was $24.9 billion, down 7.8% from the fourth quarter of 2022. All 3 of our segments demonstrated agility and on a combined basis, drove down total expense by $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter year-over-year. This enabled us to deliver operating profit within the range we communicated to you last quarter. Consolidated operating margin was 11.2% for the quarter and in line with our expectations. For the fourth quarter, diluted earnings per share was $2.47, down 31.8% from the fourth quarter of 2022.

看看我們的財務表現。第四季的合併收入為 249 億美元，比 2022 年第四季下降 7.8%。我們的所有 3 個部門都表現出了靈活性，綜合起來，第四季度的總支出同比減少了 11 億美元。這使我們能夠在上個季度向您傳達的範圍內實現營業利潤。本季綜合營業利益率為 11.2%，符合我們的預期。第四季攤薄每股收益為2.47美元，較2022年第四季下降31.8%。

Now let's look at our business segments. In U.S. Domestic, we knew going into the fourth quarter that volume would be ramping up off an exceptionally low third quarter. Our efforts to win back diverted volume and pull through new volume resulted in a record sequential volume surge. Throughout peak, we delivered excellent service to our customers while managing expenses. In the fourth quarter, average daily volume came in at the low end of our range and was down 7.4% year-over-year. The B2B average daily volume in the fourth quarter was down 6.8% year-over-year driven by declines in the retail, manufacturing and high-tech sectors. In the fourth quarter, B2B represented 35.5% of our volume which was up slightly from 35.3% in the same period last year.

現在讓我們看看我們的業務部門。在美國國內，我們知道進入第四季度，銷量將在第三季度異常低迷的基礎上增加。我們努力贏回轉移的交易量並拉動新的交易量，從而實現了創紀錄的連續交易量激增。在整個高峰期，我們在管理費用的同時為客戶提供了優質的服務。第四季度，日均交易量處於我們範圍的低端，年減 7.4%。受零售、製造業和高科技產業下滑的影響，第四季 B2B 日均交易量較去年同期下降 6.8%。第四季度，B2B 業務量占我們業務量的 35.5%，略高於去年同期的 35.3%。

Also in the fourth quarter, continued macro pressures drove customers to seek economy products as we saw customers shift volume out of the air onto the ground. Total air average daily volume was down 15% year-over-year and ground average daily volume was down 5.8% versus the fourth quarter of last year. For the quarter, U.S. Domestic generated revenue of $16.9 billion, down 7.3%. Revenue per piece was slightly positive year-over-year with a number of moving parts. A combination of strong base rates and customer mix increased the revenue per piece growth rate by about 390 basis points. This was offset by a few factors. First, changes in product mix and package characteristics decreased the revenue per piece growth rate by 140 basis points.

同樣在第四季度，持續的宏觀壓力促使客戶尋求經濟型產品，因為我們看到客戶將流量從空中轉移到地面。與去年第四季相比，每日空中總流量年減 15%，每日平均地面流量下降 5.8%。本季美國國內營收為 169 億美元，下降 7.3%。由於有許多移動部件，每件收入同比略有增長。強勁的基本費率和客戶組合相結合，使每件收入成長率提高了約 390 個基點。這被幾個因素抵消了。首先，產品結構和包裝特性的變化使單件收入成長率下降了140個基點。

Second, reflecting the lower volume in the quarter, peak season surcharge revenue declined which reduced the revenue per piece growth rate by about 120 basis points. And lastly, changes in fuel prices decreased the revenue per piece growth rate by 110 basis points. Turning to cost, total expense was down 3.6% and in the face of a 12.1% increase in union wage rates, which was driven by the contractual increase that went into effect last August, we pulled several levers to more than offset the higher expense. First, we leveraged our network planning tools and total service plan to reduce total hours in the fourth quarter by 10.2%, which was more than the decline in average daily volume. This enabled us to decrease compensation and benefits, which drove down the total expense growth rate by around 30 basis points.

其次，由於本季銷售量較低，旺季附加費收入下降，導致每件營收成長率下降約 120 個基點。最後，燃料價格的變化使每件收入成長率降低了 110 個基點。談到成本，總費用下降了 3.6%，面對去年 8 月生效的合約成長推動的工會薪資上漲 12.1%，我們採取了多種手段來抵銷較高的費用。首先，我們利用網路規劃工具和整體服務計劃，將第四季度的總小時數減少了10.2%，超過了每日平均交易量的降幅。這使我們能夠減少薪資和福利，從而使總費用成長率下降約 30 個基點。

Second, lower purchase transportation expenditures reduced the expense growth rate by around 70 basis points, primarily from lower volume levels and our continued optimization efforts. Next, lower fuel costs contributed 160 basis points to the decrease in the total expense growth rate. And lastly, the net of all other expense items and allocations reduced the expense growth rate by 100 basis points. Pulling it all together, these actions helped us reduce U.S. Domestic expense in the fourth quarter by $578 million which was our largest fourth quarter dollar cost reduction ever. Looking specifically at peak, as volume returned to the network and our biggest customers drove a surge in peak volume, we ran our integrated network with agility. In fact, in 2023, we closed over 30 sorts and they remain closed during peak.

其次，採購運輸支出的減少使費用成長率降低了約 70 個基點，這主要是由於銷售水準的下降和我們持續的最佳化努力。其次，燃料成本下降導致總費用成長率下降 160 個基點。最後，扣除所有其他費用項目和分配後，費用成長率降低了 100 個基點。總而言之，這些行動幫助我們在第四季將美國國內支出減少了 5.78 億美元，這是我們第四季有史以來最大的美元成本削減。特別是在高峰時期，隨著網路流量的恢復以及我們最大的客戶推動峰值流量的激增，我們敏捷地運行了我們的整合網路。事實上，到 2023 年，我們關閉了 30 多個門市，而且它們在高峰期仍然關閉。

By leveraging our network planning tools, we took advantage of the flexibility of our integrated network and flowed more volume into our automated buildings. And with smart package, smart facility in over 1,000 buildings, [missed] load frequency improved 67% contributing to the superior service we deliver to our customers. The U.S. Domestic segment delivered $1.6 billion in operating profit, down 32.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. However, compared to the third quarter of 2023, operating profit in U.S. Domestic increased $904 million and was our highest sequential operating profit increase ever. Operating margin in the fourth quarter was 9.3%, a 440-basis point improvement over the third quarter of 2023.

透過利用我們的網路規劃工具，我們利用了整合網路的靈活性，並將更多流量流入我們的自動化建築。借助智慧套餐，1,000 多棟建築中的智慧設施，[錯過的]負載頻率提高了 67%，為我們為客戶提供優質服務做出了貢獻。美國國內業務實現營業利潤16 億美元，較2022 年第四季下降32.6%。不過，與2023 年第三季相比，美國國內業務的營業利潤增加了9.04 億美元，是我們有史以來最高的連續營業利潤增幅。第四季營運利潤率為 9.3%，比 2023 年第三季提高 440 個基點。

Moving to our International segment. Soft demand continued to pressure volumes out of Asia. And in Europe, several key economies remain in recession, which pressured demand and drove a shift away from Express services. In response, we focused on revenue quality and adjusted our global network to match changes in geographic demand. Looking at volume. In the fourth quarter, international total average daily volume was down 8.3% year-over-year. The decline was primarily due to lower domestic average daily volume, which was down 10.8%, driven by declines in Europe and Canada, areas of the world that continue to face persistent inflationary pressures. On the export side, total average daily volume declined 5.9% on a year-over-year basis, driven by declines in Europe due to weak macro conditions.

轉向我們的國際部分。需求疲軟持續對亞洲出口量造成壓力。在歐洲，幾個主要經濟體仍處於衰退之中，這給需求帶來了壓力，並促使人們放棄快遞服務。為此，我們專注於收入質量，並調整了我們的全球網路以適應地理需求的變化。看成交量。第四季，國際日均總成交量較去年同期下降8.3%。下降的主要原因是國內日均成交量下降，下降了 10.8%，而歐洲和加拿大等地區繼續面臨持續的通膨壓力，導致國內日均成交量下降 10.8%。出口方面，日均總成交量較去年同期下降 5.9%，主要受到歐洲宏觀環境疲軟導致出口下滑的影響。

Looking at Asia, export average daily volume was down 8.9%, driven by soft demand in the retail and high-tech sectors. However, export volume on the China to U.S. lane, which is our most profitable lane increased 2.7%, driven by SMBs. Nearly offsetting the decline in Asia over in the Americas region, export average daily volume grew 11.9%, led by customers in Canada and Mexico, leveraging our cross-border ground service. In the fourth quarter, International revenue was $4.6 billion, which was down 6.9% from last year, primarily due to the decline in volume. Revenue per piece increased 3.1%. Strong base pricing and a change in customer mix drove a 420-basis point increase in the revenue per piece growth rate. A reduction in fuel surcharge revenue negatively impacted the revenue per piece growth rate by 60 basis points and lower demand-related surcharge revenue, which was partially offset by the impact of a weaker U.S. dollar decreased the revenue per piece growth rate by 50 basis points.

放眼亞洲，受零售和高科技產業需求疲軟的推動，日均出口量下降了8.9%。然而，在中小企業的推動下，我們最賺錢的航線——中國至美國航線的出口量增加了 2.7%。在加拿大和墨西哥客戶的帶動下，利用我們的跨境地面服務，每日平均出口量增加了 11.9%，幾乎抵消了亞洲地區相對於美洲地區的下降。第四季度，國際營收為 46 億美元，較去年下降 6.9%，主要是因為銷售量下降。每件營收成長 3.1%。強勁的基礎定價和客戶組合的變化推動每件營收成長率成長了 420 個基點。燃油附加費收入的減少對每件收入增長率產生了 60 個基點的負面影響，而需求相關附加費收入的下降則被美元疲軟導致每件收入增長率下降 50 個基點的影響部分抵消。

Moving to expense. In the fourth quarter, total International expense was down $152 million, primarily driven by lower fuel expense. Additionally, in response to the lower demand environment, we managed our network to match capacity with demand, which included reducing international block hours by 9.4%. Operating profit in the International segment was $899 million, down $192 million year-over-year. Operating margin in the fourth quarter was 19.5%.

轉向費用。第四季度，國際總費用減少了 1.52 億美元，主要是因為燃料費用下降。此外，為了因應需求較低的環境，我們對網路進行了管理，使容量與需求相匹配，其中包括將國際封鎖時間減少 9.4%。國際部門的營業利潤為 8.99 億美元，年減 1.92 億美元。第四季營業利益率為19.5%。

Now looking at Supply Chain Solutions. In the fourth quarter, revenue was $3.4 billion, down $435 million year-over-year. Looking at the key drivers, in international air freight, overall volumes were down despite a mid-quarter spike in e-commerce. Market rates continue to be pressured, resulting in lower revenue and operating profit. On the Ocean side, volume increased driven by the retail sector. However, excess market capacity pressured revenue and operating profit.

現在來看看供應鏈解決方案。第四季營收為 34 億美元，年減 4.35 億美元。縱觀國際航空貨運的主要驅動因素，儘管電子商務在季度中出現激增，但整體貨運量仍出現下降。市場利率持續面臨壓力，導致收入和營業利潤下降。在海洋方面，零售業推動成交量增加。然而，市場容量過剩對收入和營業利潤造成壓力。

Within Forwarding, our truckload brokerage unit known as Coyote, continued to face pressure from excess capacity in the market, which drove revenue and operating profit down. In the fourth quarter, Supply Chain Solutions generated operating profit of $319 million and an operating margin of 9.4%. Walking through the rest of the income statement, we had $207 million of interest expense. Our other pension income was $66 million and our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was 22.5%.

在貨運代理領域，我們的卡車經紀部門 Coyote 繼續面臨市場產能過剩的壓力，導致收入和營業利潤下降。第四季度，供應鏈解決方案實現營業利潤 3.19 億美元，營業利益率為 9.4%。瀏覽損益表的其餘部分，我們有 2.07 億美元的利息支出。我們的其他退休金收入為 6,600 萬美元，第四季的有效稅率為 22.5%。

Now let me comment on our full year 2023 results. For the full year 2023, revenue declined 9.3% to $91 billion and we generated operating profit of $9.9 billion, a decrease of 28.7% compared to full year 2022. Consolidated operating margin was 10.9%. We generated $10.2 billion in cash from operations and continue to follow our capital allocation priorities. We invested $5.2 billion in CapEx, additionally, we acquired MNX Global Logistics and Happy Returns. We distributed $5.4 billion in dividends, which represented a 6.6% increase on a per share basis over 2022. We repaid $2.4 billion in debt that matured during the year. And at the end of the year, our debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.2 turns.

現在讓我評論一下我們 2023 年全年的業績。 2023 年全年營收下降 9.3%，至 910 億美元，營業利益為 99 億美元，比 2022 年全年下降 28.7%。綜合營業利潤率為 10.9%。我們透過營運產生了 102 億美元現金，並繼續遵循我們的資本分配優先事項。我們在資本支出上投資了 52 億美元，此外，我們還收購了 MNX Global Logistics 和 Happy Returns。我們派發了 54 億美元的股息，每股股息比 2022 年增加了 6.6%。我們償還了年內到期的 24 億美元債務。截至年底，我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率為 2.2 倍。

Lastly, we completed $2.25 billion in share buybacks in 2023 and in the segments for the full year, in U.S. Domestic, operating profit was $5.4 billion and operating margin was 9%. The International segment generated $3.3 billion in operating profit and operating margin was 18.4% and Supply Chain Solutions delivered operating profit of $1.2 billion and an operating margin, was 9%.

最後，我們在 2023 年完成了 22.5 億美元的股票回購，全年各細分市場中，美國國內的營業利潤為 54 億美元，營業利潤率為 9%。國際部門的營業利潤為 33 億美元，營業利益率為 18.4%，供應鏈解決方案部門的營業利潤為 12 億美元，營業利益率為 9%。

With 2023 behind us, let us move to our outlook for 2024. S&P Global is forecasting an improvement in global macro conditions as the year progresses. Outside the U.S., real exports in Europe are expected to improve each quarter throughout the year. Looking at Asia, we saw positive momentum on the China to U.S. lane exiting the year and remain cautious on the outlook for 2024. In the U.S., the projected small package market growth rate is just under 1%, excluding Amazon. A slight improvement is expected in U.S. manufacturing and the consumer is expected to remain resilient despite lingering inflationary pressures.

2023 年已經過去，讓我們展望 2024 年。標普全球預測，隨著時間的推移，全球宏觀狀況將有所改善。除美國以外，歐洲的實際出口預計全年每季都會有所改善。展望亞洲，我們看到中國至美國航線今年將呈現正面勢頭，並對 2024 年的前景保持謹慎態度。在美國，不包括亞馬遜，預計小包裝市場成長率略低於 1%。儘管通膨壓力揮之不去，但美國製造業預計將略有改善，消費者預計將保持彈性。

We've built a plan that reflects the current environment and potential risks that we see. This includes fitting our organization to our strategy and aligning execution to our widely important initiatives under what we call fit to serve. As Carol mentioned, we are exploring strategic alternatives for Coyote, our truckload brokerage business, which will enable us to address some of the cyclical impacts in our forwarding business and we are reducing our workforce by approximately 12,000 positions. This will cut around $1 billion in cost in 2024.

我們制定了一項計劃，反映了當前環境和我們看到的潛在風險。這包括使我們的組織適應我們的策略，並使執行與我們所謂的「適合服務」下的廣泛重要的舉措保持一致。正如卡羅爾所提到的，我們正在探索我們的卡車經紀業務 Coyote 的策略替代方案，這將使我們能夠解決貨運業務中的一些週期性影響，並且我們將減少約 12,000 個職位。這將在 2024 年削減約 10 億美元的成本。

Moving to our 2024 financial outlook. We are providing a range based on volume growth. The low end of the range has UPS growing at market rate and the high end of the range has us gaining share. For the full year 2024, on a consolidated basis, revenues are expected to range from approximately $92 billion to $94.5 billion and operating margin is expected to range from approximately 10% to 10.6%. In the range provided, we expect to move total average daily volume from negative growth in the first half of the year to positive growth in the back half.

轉向我們的 2024 年財務展望。我們根據銷售成長提供一系列產品。該範圍的低端使 UPS 以市場速度成長，而該範圍的高端使我們獲得了市場份額。 2024 年全年，在合併基礎上，營收預計約為 920 億美元至 945 億美元，營業利潤率預計約為 10% 至 10.6%。在規定的範圍內，我們預計日均總交易量將由上半年的負成長轉為下半年的正成長。

This is primarily driven by lapping the volume diversion we experienced in the U.S. last year during our labor negotiations. Additionally, costs will weigh on us in the first half of the year, primarily due to the high labor cost inflation associated with the new contract. Looking at consolidated revenue. In the first half of the year, we expect the growth rate to decline within a range of approximately 1% to 2%, with the first quarter driving the decline. And in the back half of the year, revenue growth is anticipated to be up within a range of mid- to high single digits. Looking at consolidated operating profit, we expect material improvement as the year progresses with the second half of the year outperforming the first half. Lastly, we expect to generate our lowest consolidated operating margin of the year in the first quarter.

這主要是由於我們去年在美國勞工談判期間經歷了銷售轉移。此外，今年上半年的成本將對我們造成壓力，這主要是由於新合約帶來的勞動成本上漲。看看合併收入。上半年，我們預計成長率將下降約1%至2%，其中第一季是下降的主要動力。今年下半年，收入成長預計將在中高個位數範圍內成長。就綜合營業利潤而言，我們預計隨著時間的推移，下半年將優於上半年，將出現實質改善。最後，我們預計第一季的綜合營業利潤率將達到今年最低。

Now let me give you a little color on the segments. Looking at U.S. Domestic, average daily volume growth is expected to be within a range of approximately flat to up 2% for the full year. At both the low and high ends of the range, we expect the revenue per piece growth rate to outpace the cost per piece growth rate beginning in the third quarter and we expect to exit the year at a 10% operating margin. Moving to the International segment. We expect 2024 average daily volume to be within a range of approximately flat to up around 3%. At both ends of the guidance range, operating margin is anticipated to be in the high teens. And in Supply Chain Solutions for the full year in 2024, we expect revenue to be within a range of approximately $13 billion to $13.5 billion. At both ends of the guidance range, operating margin for SCS is expected to be high single digits.

現在讓我給你一些關於這些片段的顏色。就美國國內而言，預計全年日均成交量成長將在約持平至成長 2% 的範圍內。在該範圍的低端和高端，我們預計從第三季開始，每件收入成長率將超過每件成本成長率，並且我們預計今年的營業利潤率為 10%。轉向國際部分。我們預計 2024 年日均交易量將在大約持平到成長 3% 左右的範圍內。在指導範圍的兩端，營業利潤率預計將達到十幾歲。我們預計 2024 年全年供應鏈解決方案營收將在約 130 億美元至 135 億美元之間。在指導範圍的兩端，SCS 的營業利潤率預計將達到高個位數。

And for modeling purposes, in total below the line, we expect approximately $400 million in expense in 2024. This is net of $262 million in pension income. We included a slide in the appendix of today's webcast deck to provide you more detail on pension. The webcast deck will be posted to the UPS Investor Relations website following this call. Now let's turn to full year 2024 capital allocation. Our capital allocation priorities have not changed. We are staying on strategy and we'll make the best long-term decisions to capture growth, improve efficiency and deliver value to our shareholders. We expect 2024 capital expenditures to be within our target of around 5% of revenue or $4.5 billion.

出於建模目的，我們預計 2024 年線下支出總額約為 4 億美元。這扣除了 2.62 億美元的退休金收入。我們在今天的網路廣播的附錄中添加了一張幻燈片，為您提供有關退休金的更多詳細資訊。此次電話會議後，網路廣播將發佈到 UPS 投資者關係網站上。現在讓我們來看看2024年全年資本配置。我們的資本配置重點並沒有改變。我們將堅持策略，我們將做出最佳的長期決策，以實現成長、提高效率並為股東創造價值。我們預計 2024 年資本支出將在收入的 5% 左右（即 45 億美元）的目標之內。

Now let's turn to our expectations for cash and the balance sheet. We expect free cash flow to be within a range of approximately $4.5 billion to $5.3 billion, including our annual pension contributions of $1.4 billion, which are equal to our expected service costs. As Carol mentioned, the Board has approved a dividend per share of $1.63 for the first quarter. We are planning to pay out around $5.4 billion in dividends in 2024, subject to Board approval. Finally, our effective tax rate in 2024 is expected to be approximately 23.5%.

現在讓我們轉向對現金和資產負債表的預期。我們預計自由現金流將在約 45 億至 53 億美元之間，其中包括我們每年 14 億美元的退休金繳款，這相當於我們預期的服務成本。正如卡羅爾所提到的，董事會已批准第一季每股股息 1.63 美元。我們計劃在 2024 年支付約 54 億美元的股息，但須經董事會批准。最後，我們2024年的有效稅率預計約為23.5%。

In closing, we look at 2024 as a year to pivot away from negative volume to positive volume growth and from high labor cost inflation to a much lower growth rate. We are laser-focused on executing our strategy, controlling what we can control and improving our financial performance. We look forward to sharing our multiyear targets and details on our strategy at our Investor Day event on March 26.

最後，我們將 2024 年視為銷售量從負成長轉向正成長、從高勞動成本通膨轉向低成長率的一年。我們專注於執行我們的策略，控制我們可以控制的事情並改善我們的財務表現。我們期待在 3 月 26 日的投資者日活動上分享我們的多年目標和策略細節。

Thank you and operator, please open the lines.

謝謝您和接線員，請開通線路。

We will now conduct a question-and-answer session. Our first question will come from the line of Chris Wetherbee of Citigroup.

我們現在將進行問答環節。我們的第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

I guess I want to start on maybe some of the cost out. You mentioned the 12,000 positions that you're reducing and the $1 billion of cost in 2024. I was hoping maybe you could help us sort of understand the timing of that. So based on the 10% kind of run rate exiting '24, it would imply that the first quarter is fairly low. So I just want to make sure I understand some of those moving pieces and when that $1 billion is going to start to accrue.

我想我想從一些成本開始。您提到了 2024 年要削減 12,000 個職位以及 10 億美元的成本。我希望您能幫助我們了解削減的時間表。因此，根據 24 年 10% 的運行率，這意味著第一季的運行率相當低。所以我只是想確保我了解其中一些變化以及這 10 億美元何時開始產生。

Sure. Happy to give you some color. So we talked about 12,000 heads out, 75% of the reductions will come in the first half, which drive the $1 billion in the 2024 calendar year. But you're absolutely right in terms of the timing and announcement it will be back-end weighted. And really, the other thing I'd like to point out, it's a change in the way we work. So as volume returns to the system, we don't expect these jobs to come back. It's changing the effective way that we operate.

當然。很高興給你一些顏色。所以我們談到了 12,000 個頭，其中 75% 的削減將發生在上半年，這將在 2024 年帶來 10 億美元的收入。但就時間安排和宣布將採用後端加權而言，您是絕對正確的。事實上，我想指出的另一件事是我們工作方式的改變。因此，隨著系統容量恢復，我們預計這些工作不會回來。它正在改變我們運作的有效方式。

And I might just add a little more color, if I could, Chris. Today, we have about 495,000 UPSers around the world. A few years ago and when the COVID demand was peaking, we had 540,000 UPSers. So Kate and Nando have done a masterful job of managing our operational headcount to meet the volume in our company and they've done that by managing our turnover and attrition and closing sorts and reducing block hours, et cetera. We have about 85,000 UPSers who are management and this could be full time and part time management. The targeted head count falls really within that group as well as some contractors that will be leaving us. And to Brian's point, this is really about a new way of working. So it's $1 billion of cost out now but there's even more cost out to come as we have a full year benefit in 2025.

如果可以的話，我可能會添加更多的顏色，克里斯。如今，我們在全球擁有約 495,000 名 UPS 用戶。幾年前，當新冠疫情需求達到頂峰時，我們有 54 萬名 UPS 員工。因此，凱特和南多在管理我們的營運人員數量以滿足公司的業務量方面做得非常出色，他們透過管理我們的營業額、人員流失、結帳排序以及減少工作時間等來做到這一點。我們有大約 85,000 名 UPS 管理人員，其中可能是全職管理人員，也可能是兼職管理人員。目標人數實際上屬於該群體以及一些即將離開我們的承包商。在布萊恩看來，這實際上是一種新的工作方式。因此，現在的成本支出為 10 億美元，但隨著我們在 2025 年實現全年效益，未來還會有更多的成本支出。

Our next question will come from the line of David Vernon of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題將來自伯恩斯坦的大衛·弗農（David Vernon）。

So I just wanted to ask on the productivity side. Obviously, hours down more than volume. We've had a couple of quarters of that, obviously, now the third quarter this year. Is there a point where volume declines become more difficult to offset? I'm just trying to understand the downside risk, right. If volumes continue to remain flat, or weaker than you expect, how should we be thinking about the downside risk on the margin side?

所以我只是想問一下生產力方面的問題。顯然，小時數的下降幅度大於成交量的下降幅度。顯然，我們已經經歷了幾個季度了，現在是今年的第三季。是否存在某一點使得成交量下降變得更難以抵銷？我只是想了解下行風險，對吧。如果成交量持續持平或弱於您的預期，我們該如何考慮保證金方面的下行風險？

So we believe that productivity is a virtuous cycle here at UPS and I'll give you one example, then I'm going to throw it over to Nando to address this. But if I look at just 1 metric, cube utilization. We reached the highest cube utilization in our company history at 60%. That's the equivalent of reducing 1,500 loads per day. So that's not in hours but it's just a cost out. So we've got productivity across the operations. And Nando, why don't you talk about what you're going to do in 2024.

因此，我們相信，在 UPS，生產力是一個良性循環，我將給您一個例子，然後我將把它交給 Nando 來解決這個問題。但如果我只看 1 個指標，即多維資料集利用率。我們的立方體利用率達到了公司歷史上最高的 60%。這相當於每天減少 1,500 次負載。所以這不是幾個小時的事，但這只是一個成本。因此，我們在整個營運過程中都提高了生產力。 Nando，為什麼不談談 2024 年你打算做什麼？

Yes. So David, for us, it is a virtuous cycle. So we're working ahead of any type of volume variability. So whether it goes up or down, we've got some of our best engineers, operations folks, finance folks identifying additional cost outs as we move forward, as we're executing the ones that we have in front of us. So we feel good that there's a good pipeline of opportunity no matter what the volume does. And as Carol had mentioned, we lever our hourly headcount and match that to the volume and the activity. And so far, so good but still lots in front of us and they're pretty meaty, so we feel really good about those initiatives.

是的。所以大衛，對我們來說，這是一個良性循環。因此，我們正在努力應對任何類型的體積變化。因此，無論價格上漲或下跌，我們都會有一些最好的工程師、營運人員、財務人員在我們前進的過程中確定額外的成本支出，因為我們正在執行擺在我們面前的成本支出。因此，我們感到很高興，無論銷售量如何，都有很好的機會。正如卡羅爾所提到的，我們利用每小時的人數並將其與數量和活動相匹配。到目前為止，一切都很好，但我們面前還有很多，而且內容很豐富，所以我們對這些舉措感覺非常好。

And at our Investor Day in March, we're going to talk to you about network of the future. We've got an integrated network. We don't have to integrate. But we can transform our network with some very exciting ideas. So we're going to share that with you in March.

在三月的投資者日，我們將與您討論未來的網路。我們有一個綜合網絡。我們不必整合。但我們可以透過一些非常令人興奮的想法來改變我們的網絡。因此，我們將在三月與您分享這一點。

And the rate at which resource needs is going to need to be added back on the other side was, maybe we get some volume expansion. Can you talk to the expectations for operating leverage on the upside?

另一方面，資源需求需要增加的速度是，也許我們會得到一些容量擴展。能談談對經營槓桿上升的預期嗎？

Yes. I think as we look to the back end of the year, certainly, the volume projections that are in there, in terms of the volume growth for the back end of the year in that 2% to 4% range domestically, we start to see CPP growing slower than RPP. And so that balance is what's going to create the operating margin. With the sorts we closed, over 30 sorts, did not reopen them during peak. So we're changing, Nando is doing an effective job of basically managing more volume with less. So we'll continue to drive that.

是的。我認為，當我們展望今年年底時，當然，就其中的銷量預測而言，就今年年底國內 2% 至 4% 範圍內的銷量增長而言，我們開始看到CPP 增長速度慢於 RPP。因此，這種平衡將創造營業利潤。我們關閉的品種有30多個，高峰期沒有重新開放。所以我們正在改變，Nando 正在做一項有效的工作，基本上用更少的資源管理更多的數量。所以我們將繼續推動這項進程。

Our next question will come from the line of Amit Mehrotra of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

I just wanted to -- Brian, on the guidance, I guess the guidance implies $9.6 billion in operating profits. You've been pretty helpful historically about giving us kind of the first half, second half cadence of that. And then just related to that, I want to make sure, so you said the $1 billion is included in the guidance. Can you just expand on that a little bit? Because if I take out the $1 billion, the implied change in profits relative to the improvement in revenues, quite a bit worse. So I'm just trying to understand what's actually included in the guidance on the $1 billion and how that kind of translates to what you're assuming underneath that in terms of change of profit relative to change of revenue?

我只是想——布萊恩，關於指導，我猜指導意味著 96 億美元的營業利潤。從歷史上看，您為我們提供了上半場、下半場的節奏，非常有幫助。與此相關的是，我想確定一下，所以你說 10 億美元包含在指導中。能稍微擴充一下嗎？因為如果我去掉這 10 億美元，相對於收入的改善而言，隱含的利潤變化會更糟。所以我只是想了解 10 億美元的指導中實際包含的內容以及如何轉化為您在利潤相對於收入變化方面的假設？

Sure. Happy to, Amit. So from a shape of the year perspective, the full year, we called revenue at 1% to 4% but the -- based on lapping of the volumes and the contract overlap, we would expect revenue to be flat to down 2% in the first half, up 4% to 8% in the back half. And from a profit perspective, I had mentioned that it's a tale of 2 cities in terms of halves of the year. The second half of the year, we'd expect profit to grow about 20% to 30%. So Q1 will be the biggest challenge because we're lapping from a volume comp perspective and a full contract. But on a full year basis, we're looking at op margin, 10% to 10.6%. I think you can expect the second half of the year to be in 11% to 12% in that range and you can back into the first half.

當然。很高興，阿米特。因此，從全年情況來看，我們稱全年收入增長 1% 至 4%，但根據銷量和合約重疊情況，我們預計收入將持平至下降 2%。上半年上漲4%至8%，下半年。從利潤的角度來看，我曾經提到過，就一年的一半而言，這是兩個城市的故事。下半年，我們預計利潤將成長約20%至30%。因此，第一季將是最大的挑戰，因為我們是從銷售補償的角度和完整的合約來進行的。但從全年來看，我們的營運利潤率為 10% 至 10.6%。我認為你可以預期下半年會在這個範圍內 11% 到 12%，然後你可以回到上半年。

In terms of your question of backing out the $1 billion in costs, that $1 billion will be a cost benefit in 2024. But I think we've said in the past, Amit, it would take 12 months to digest the new labor cost. We are confident we can get back to consistent expansion of U.S. margins as we lap the first year of the contract, that will be a combination of pricing and productivity. So net-net, it's really lapping that contract and then you start to get the benefits. As Carol said, some of those benefits would accrue over to 2025 as well.

至於你取消 10 億美元成本的問題，這 10 億美元將在 2024 年成為成本效益。但我認為我們過去說過，阿米特，需要 12 個月才能消化新的勞動成本。我們相信，隨著合約第一年的結束，我們能夠恢復美國利潤率的持續擴張，這將是定價和生產力的結合。所以，淨淨，它實際上是在履行合同，然後你就開始獲得好處。正如卡羅爾所說，其中一些福利也將持續到 2025 年。

And are we done there on the $1 billion? Or is there like there's $55 billion in total cost? I mean, are we just getting started? Or like what's the actual opportunity there beyond the $1 billion?

那麼我們的 10 億美元就到此為止了嗎？還是總成本達到 550 億美元？我的意思是，我們才剛開始嗎？或者說，除了 10 億美元之外，還有哪些實際機會？

So Carol talked about the differences -- between Nando and Kate, the operating cost and what we're talking about management headcount. If you bifurcate the 2, I think you're going to hear more at the Investor Day through things like Network of the Future, how we go after additional head count in that area but this would be about a 14% reduction in that 85,000 heads.

卡羅爾談到了 Nando 和 Kate 之間的差異、營運成本以及我們所談論的管理人員數量。如果你把這兩者分開，我想你會在投資者日透過未來網路之類的東西聽到更多，我們如何在該領域增加員工人數，但這將導致 85,000 人減少約 14% 。

We're never done. We continue to drive productivity. It's a virtuous cycle here. And technology has changed just so much in the past year, when you think about the advent of generative AI and the applications inside of our business, we're just getting started and I'm really excited about what the future will mean in terms of driving productivity and as well as improving the customer experience.

我們永遠不會完成。我們持續提高生產力。這裡是一個良性循環。在過去的一年裡，技術發生了很大的變化，當你想到生成式人工智慧的出現以及我們業務內部的應用程式時，我們才剛剛開始，我對未來的意義感到非常興奮提高生產力並改善客戶體驗。

Our next question will come from the line of Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

Just to stick with the productivity side. You've been obviously pretty dynamic with your network and you mentioned, I think, 30 sort closures and whatnot. Can you just talk about the consolidation opportunity in '24 and how that may play out to drive further efficiencies in the business.

只是為了堅持生產力方面。顯然，您的人脈非常活躍，我認為您提到了 30 種閉包等等。您能否談談 24 年的整合機會以及該機會如何進一步提高業務效率。

We'd be happy to do that but we're going to kick that question to our March conference because we've got a great presentation to share with you regarding Network of the Future and it would take up way too much time today to go through that. We want to spend a good amount of time talking to you about that in March. So thank you for understanding.

我們很樂意這樣做，但我們將把這個問題帶到三月份的會議上，因為我們有一個關於未來網絡的精彩演示要與您分享，今天要花太多時間去討論通過那。我們希望在三月花大量時間與您討論這個問題。所以感謝您的體諒。

Our next question will come from the line of Allison Poliniak of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的艾莉森·波利尼亞克。

Just want to turn to the growth aspect of it more, I guess, more specifically the market share capture. Could you maybe walk through the different levers in terms of -- I know you mentioned Project Brown, your ability to recapture diversion -- diverted volume but also talking to the SMB penetration, your opportunity on the health care side? Just any color in terms of where those levers can be pulled through that market share growth in '24.

我想更多地轉向它的成長方面，更具體地說是市場份額的獲取。您能否介紹一下不同的槓桿——我知道您提到了布朗計劃，您重新奪回轉移的能力——轉移量，但也談到了中小企業的滲透率，您在醫療保健方面的機會？任何顏色都可以透過 24 年市場份額的成長來拉動這些槓桿。

I'll start with a few comments about Project Brown. Project Brown really is a new way of going after business. And it has many elements to it and I'll make some of those real to you. First of all, we looked at ourselves and said, what's getting in the way of speed because it was taking us too long to respond to our customer. And we found that we hadn't really declared service level agreements amongst the various groups that participate in this exercise of providing answers to our customers. So we shortened up the time to response and that's important, and that's going to be with us now forever. I can make that real for you. Outside of the United States it used to take 22 days. We dropped it to 6 days. We're now at 2 days. That's best in class and we made similar improvements in the United States. Project Brown was also looking at Deal Manager.

我將首先對布朗計劃發表一些評論。布朗計劃確實是一種追求商業的新方式。它有很多元素，我會讓其中一些對你來說是真實的。首先，我們審視自己並說，是什麼阻礙了速度，因為我們花了太長時間來回應客戶。我們發現，我們並沒有真正在參與向客戶提供答案的各個團體之間宣布服務等級協議。因此，我們縮短了反應時間，這很重要，而且現在將永遠伴隨著我們。我可以為你實現這一點。在美國境外，過去需要 22 天。我們將其縮短至 6 天。我們現在還有2天。這是同類中最好的，我們在美國也做了類似的改進。布朗專案也在尋找交易經理。

Deal Manager is the new tool that we introduced that uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to score a deal and avoid the need for our salespeople to go up to our pricing people for appeals, they can actually see the score of their deal. We've had great acceptance and win rates, 79% win rates with this tool. But we found through Project Brown that we weren't offering all of our products in the tool and one of the products we weren't offering was SurePost, which is a great product. So we introduced SurePost into the Deal Manager and we're getting some good return on that. That's particularly attractive for our small and medium size customers.

Deal Manager 是我們推出的新工具，它使用人工智慧和機器學習來達成交易，並避免我們的銷售人員向我們的定價人員提出上訴，他們實際上可以看到他們的交易得分。我們已經獲得了很高的接受度和獲勝率，使用此工具的獲勝率為 79%。但我們透過布朗專案發現，我們並沒有在該工具中提供所有產品，而我們沒有提供的產品之一是 SurePost，這是一款很棒的產品。因此，我們將 SurePost 引入了 Deal Manager，並獲得了良好的回報。這對我們的中小型客戶尤其有吸引力。

Another thing that we did is that we improved and increased weekend pickups in several key markets during the year. So and I could go on and on and on but this is a way of operationalizing excellence to drive the business and capture share. So where are we going to capture share? We're going to continue to lean into the small- and medium-sized segment opportunities, we're seeing some real success in that area. We're going to continue to lean into health care. When I started here, the health care revenues were around $6 billion, now at $10 billion and we're going to continue to grow. We'll lay out our 3-year growth plans for you at our March Investor Day. I think you'll be very pleased with that. We're going to continue to sell off the service that we provide and the capabilities that we have that actually no one else has, that's our integrated network.

我們所做的另一件事是，我們在這一年中改進並增加了幾個主要市場的周末取貨。所以我可以繼續說下去，但這是一種透過卓越營運來推動業務和獲取份額的方式。那我們要從哪裡取得份額呢？我們將繼續關注中小型細分市場的機會，我們在該領域看到了一些真正的成功。我們將繼續致力於醫療保健。當我剛來這裡時，醫療保健收入約為 60 億美元，現在為 100 億美元，我們將繼續成長。我們將在三月投資者日為您制定 3 年成長計畫。我想你會對此感到非常滿意的。我們將繼續出售我們提供的服務和我們擁有的實際上沒有人擁有的功能，這就是我們的整合網路。

So at our Investor Day in March, we'll lay out market share capture. But let me just make the market real for you because this might be helpful too. As we think about the addressable market, the addressable market in the United States. It's a little over 52 million packages a day. So there's plenty of addressable market for us to go get. And plenty of market for us to get outside of the United States because we are underpenetrated in so many areas. One reason I called out our new air hub in the Hong Kong International Airport is that the Greater China Bay area is an unbelievable economic power base, the 13th largest economy in the world, 37% of all China exports go through that airport. And today, we have small -- way overcapacity of and buildings that are inefficient with lease rates that are sky high. So we are building a 20000-square meter facility. It will make us the second largest air hub in that important part of the market. So expect to see a lot of growth coming off of that over time.

因此，在三月份的投資者日，我們將佈局市場份額捕獲。但讓我讓市場對你來說是真實的，因為這也可能有幫助。當我們考慮潛在市場時，美國的潛在市場。每天的包裹數量略高於 5200 萬件。因此，我們有大量的潛在市場可供開發。我們有足夠的市場進入美國之外，因為我們在許多領域的滲透率還不夠。我之所以在香港國際機場設立新的航空樞紐，是因為大中華灣區是一個令人難以置信的經濟實力基地，是世界第13大經濟體，中國37%的出口都經過該機場。如今，我們的建築產能嚴重過剩，建築效率低下，租賃率極高。所以我們正在建造一個20000平方米的設施。它將使我們成為這個重要市場部分的第二大航空樞紐。因此，隨著時間的推移，預計會出現大量增長。

Our next question will come from the line of Tom Wadewitz of UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的湯姆·瓦德維茨（Tom Wadewitz）。

So I wanted to see if you could talk a little bit about the competitive dynamic in the market. I know the backdrop is that you had some share loss associated with the Teamster contract. But it also seems like there might be risks that other competitors are gaining traction in the market. So if you look at Postal Service had, I think, up 7% volumes and they had a new product, the Ground Advantage. And so I guess the question is, is there a risk that the competitive set has got more challenging? And how do we think about what you need to do to have a better volume outcome in 2024? Is there more pressure on price? Or is it a different formula to get the better volume outcome in '24?

所以我想看看你是否可以談談市場的競爭動態。我知道背景是您因卡車司機合約而損失了一些股份。但似乎也存在其他競爭對手在市場上獲得吸引力的風險。因此，如果你看看郵政服務，我認為其業務量增加了 7%，並且他們推出了新產品 Ground Advantage。所以我想問題是，是否存在競爭環境變得更具挑戰性的風險？我們如何考慮您需要做什麼才能在 2024 年獲得更好的銷售結果？價格壓力是否更大？還是在 24 年獲得更好的產量結果的不同公式？

So I would say that the pricing environment is very rational. And you can see that as Brian picked out the RPP performance in the fourth quarter, we had very strong base rate performance. Now the RPP was muted because of lower fuel costs and product characteristics and the product mix change and lower demand surcharges but the base was very strong. And we expect the base to continue into 2024, our GRI for 2024 is 5.9%. Will we keep all of it? No. But will we keep a lot of it? Yes, just like we did in 2023, we kept about 60% of the GRI in 2023. So the pricing environment is rational. In terms of competitive products, it's incumbent upon us to stay at leading edge and meeting our customers where they want us to be. That's one reason we offered a hyper local product beginning last quarter, which is really a short zone product. We haven't had that before.

所以我想說定價環境是非常理性的。你可以看到，當 Brian 指出第四季的 RPP 表現時，我們的基本利率表現非常強勁。現在，由於燃料成本和產品特性下降、產品結構變化以及需求附加費降低，RPP 表現平淡，但基礎非常強勁。我們預計該基數將持續到 2024 年，我們 2024 年的 GRI 為 5.9%。我們會保留全部嗎？不，但是我們會保留很多嗎？是的，就像我們在2023年所做的那樣，我們在2023年保留了大約60%的GRI。所以定價環境是合理的。就具有競爭力的產品而言，我們有責任保持領先地位並滿足客戶的需求。這就是我們從上個季度開始提供超本地產品的原因之一，這實際上是一種短區域產品。我們以前沒有過這樣的經驗。

And as we look at the offerings that we will go to market with this year, we've got some things underway, not ready for prime time. But I suspect looking over at our new Chief Commercial Officer, Matt Guffey, that we might be able to talk about that at our March investor conference and he's nodding his head. So stay tuned for that.

當我們審視今年將推向市場的產品時，我們已經做了一些事情，但還沒有準備好迎接黃金時段。但我懷疑看看我們新任首席商務官馬特·古菲（Matt Guffey），我們也許可以在三月份的投資者會議上討論這個問題，他點了點頭。所以請繼續關注。

Our next question will come from the line of Jeff Kauffman of Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

I'm going to defer the big picture stuff to March. But I'm just kind of curious, how did your global view change between when we were discussing the labor deal back in August, September to the year-end. You mentioned the softness in Europe. You mentioned the shift from air to ground but kind of what were the big changes in your outlook over that 4-, 5-month period?

我將把大局的事情推遲到三月。但我只是有點好奇，從八月、九月我們討論勞工協議到年底，您的全球觀點發生了怎樣的變化。你提到了歐洲的疲軟。您提到了從空中到地面的轉變，但是在這 4、5 個月期間您的觀點發生了哪些重大變化？

Well, what really softened up was Europe. If you look at our -- the volume decline, both domestic and export, it was heavily weighted in Europe. In fact, the decline in our export was 94%, driven by the softness in Europe. So you see what's happening with industrial manufacturing, that is just way off. So that is a big change. There are also dynamics happening in air and ocean freight that you've been watching. We've all been watching the drama in the Red Sea, the fact that the water levels in the Panama Canal are low and that certainly is causing a lot of chaos actually in ocean and air freights. Interestingly, on the air side, both rates and volumes were down, on the ocean side, volumes are up. But as Brian called out, the rates were considerably down.

嗯，真正軟化的是歐洲。如果你看看我們的國內和出口量下降，你會發現歐洲的比重很大。事實上，受歐洲經濟疲軟的影響，我們的出口下降了 94%。所以你會看到工業製造正在發生什麼，那還很遙遠。所以這是一個很大的改變。您一直在關注的空運和海運領域也發生了動態。我們都在觀看紅海的戲劇性事件，巴拿馬運河的水位很低，這確實在海運和空運中造成了許多混亂。有趣的是，在空氣方面，費率和交易量都下降，而在海洋方面，交易量則上升。但正如布萊恩所說，利率大幅下降。

As we sit here today, it's a very dynamic market and ever-changing. A little hard to predict (inaudible) because what we're seeing today is for shippers who have high value packages. They're actually -- they're worried about their ocean conditions, so they're moving to the air. So air rates are tightening a bit. And on the ocean side, because shippers are starting to have to reroute away from the Red Sea or the Panama Canal, the routing is taking longer, so there's some change to the dynamics of the pricing there too. We just have to stay super nimble here and Kate and her team are doing a great job at that. Kate what would you like to add here?

當我們今天坐在這裡時，這是一個非常活躍且不斷變化的市場。有點難以預測（聽不清楚），因為我們今天看到的是擁有高價值包裹的托運人。事實上，他們擔心海洋狀況，所以他們正在轉向空中。因此，空運價格有所收緊。在海洋方面，由於托運人開始不得不改變路線，遠離紅海或巴拿馬運河，因此路線需要更長的時間，因此那裡的定價動態也發生了一些變化。我們只需要在這裡保持超級敏捷，凱特和她的團隊在這方面做得很好。凱特，您想在這裡添加什麼？

Yes. I would say that the market remains volatile, even in Europe with the drop-off in the inflationary softening. We were able to pull back on the cost to deliver a great margin and that's our commitment. And then to ensure that in the forwarding side of the house, as we've done, stay just razor sharp to ensure that we are right on track with any trend that we see. And I'm really proud of the team because we have got the initiative to gain those customers with high-value goods and that international air freight that's coming as a result.

是的。我想說，即使在歐洲通膨疲軟程度下降的情況下，市場仍然不穩定。我們能夠降低成本並獲得豐厚的利潤，這是我們的承諾。然後確保在房屋的轉發方面，正如我們所做的那樣，保持鋒利，以確保我們與我們看到的任何趨勢保持一致。我真的為這個團隊感到自豪，因為我們主動以高價值貨物和由此產生的國際空運來贏得客戶。

And just if I could follow up on that answer. So given the global events with Suez Canal, Panama Canal, looking at the lemonade out of lemons side of this, is this a bigger opportunity for you in Europe? Or is this a bigger opportunity for air out of Asia?

如果我能跟進這個答案就好了。因此，考慮到蘇伊士運河、巴拿馬運河等全球事件，看看檸檬中的檸檬水，這對您來說在歐洲是一個更大的機會嗎？或者說，這對亞洲空氣來說是一個更大的機會嗎？

It actually is first showing up Asia to Europe lane. And -- but I will say this is going to be the repositioning of vessels around the globe. It's going to be a global event. So we see it as an opportunity throughout and our sales resources are global. Our portfolio is global. So UPS is very well positioned to take advantage of it.

它實際上是首次出現亞洲至歐洲航線。而且——但我要說的是，這將是全球船隻的重新定位。這將是一個全球性的事件。因此，我們始終將其視為一個機會，並且我們的銷售資源是全球性的。我們的產品組合是全球性的。因此，UPS 非常有能力利用這項優勢。

Our next question will come from the line of Brandon Oglenski of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基。

Can you guys speak to your enterprise customers and the volume trends that you saw in the fourth quarter and expectations going into 2024? And maybe compare and contrast that with B2B as well as your small, medium business mix?

你們能否與你們的企業客戶談談你們在第四季度看到的銷售趨勢以及對 2024 年的預期？也許可以將其與 B2B 以及您的中小型企業組合進行比較和對比？

So happy to, Brandon. We were actually pleased with the volume momentum. We were at a low watermark in August of last year, down 15% and we saw sequential monthly improvement as we looked at our volume domestically from an ADV perspective, down to mid-single-digit declines in the month of December. So that trend continued to play out well. We're going to see some tough comps, though, in the first quarter, so I wouldn't expect positive volume growth in Q1. We start to see positive volume growth in Q2 and then certainly in the back half of the year as the comps change. SMB, Carol mentioned, very focused on penetration on the SMB side and specifically some of the medium SMB customers. We've stated we would like to see that mix trend up to 30% plus. We finished the year at 28%. So we're well on our way in that direction.

很高興，布蘭登。我們實際上對銷售勢頭感到滿意。去年 8 月，我們處於低水位，下降了 15%，當我們從 ADV 的角度來看國內銷量時，我們看到了環比的月度改善，12 月份的降幅降至中個位數。因此，這種趨勢繼續表現良好。不過，我們將在第一季看到一些艱難的業績，因此我預計第一季的銷售不會出現正成長。我們開始看到第二季的銷售量正成長，隨著競爭情況的變化，今年下半年肯定會出現銷售成長。卡羅爾提到，中小企業非常關注中小企業方面的滲透，特別是一些中型中小企業客戶。我們已經說過，我們希望看到這種混合趨勢達到 30% 以上。我們今年的成長率為 28%。所以我們正在朝這個方向前進。

Maybe another comment because this is just an interesting observation on the market. If I look at our top 5 decliners in the quarter, that would include our largest customer and there's an intentional decline there. But then if I look at the remaining decliners, it's really interesting to see what's happening. Of those, only one has diverted some volume. They're a dual sourcer and they have diverted some volume. And I suspect they'll stay dual sourcing. The rest, either their business is just way off or they have worked really hard to create a better experience inside the store to encourage buy online, pick up in store. So there is a bit of dynamic happening within our large enterprise customers. I think for all of us, we're delighted to have anniversaried the demand that we saw through COVID. Now that that's behind us, now that the volume for the small package market has reverted back to the mean, this is an opportunity now for everyone to grow.

也許還有另一個評​​論，因為這只是對市場的一個有趣的觀察。如果我看一下本季排名前 5 名的下降客戶，其中將包括我們最大的客戶，並且那裡是有意下降的。但如果我看看剩下的下跌者，就會發現正在發生的事情真的很有趣。其中，只有一個轉移了部分交易量。他們是雙源供應商，並且轉移了一些數量。我懷疑他們會繼續採取雙重來源。其餘的，要嘛他們的生意還很糟糕，要嘛他們非常努力地在店內創造更好的體驗，以鼓勵網路購買、店內取貨。因此，我們的大型企業客戶內部正在發生一些動態。我認為，對於我們所有人來說，我們很高興能夠迎來新冠疫情帶來的需求週年紀念日。現在這一切都已經過去了，小包裝市場的銷量已經恢復到平均水平，這對每個人來說都是一個成長的機會。

Our next question will come from the line of Helane Becker of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

So on Coyote, when you did the acquisition, what did you think the benefits would be that made it important to do the acquisition. And then what really would actually happened that is causing you to rethink how Coyote fits in the network and my follow-up question is then related. You recently bought 2 747-8 freighters, I saw. And I'm just wondering if you bought those off lease or where they came from since Boeing doesn't make the 747 anymore.

所以對於 Coyote，當你進行收購時，你認為收購的好處是什麼，使得收購變得很重要。然後真正發生的事情會讓你重新思考 Coyote 如何融入網絡，這與我的後續問題有關。我看到，您最近購買了 2 747-8 貨機。我只是想知道你是否購買了這些租賃飛機或它們來自哪裡，因為波音不再生產 747。

I'm happy to address the Coyote question to the best of my ability. I was on the Board in 2015 when we bought the company but the strategic rationale was really about expanding the portfolio. And it was a very thoughtful strategic rationale to expand the portfolio. But I don't think we fully understood at the time was just how cyclical this business is. And I'll make it real for you. When we acquired Coyote in 2015, the revenues in the previous year for Coyote were $2.1 billion. During COVID, Coyote peaked up to over $4 billion in revenue. Well, it's gone way down since then. In fact, if you look at our Supply Chain Solutions business, it was down $3 billion year-on-year, which is 1/3 of the overall company decline. Within that $3 billion, Coyote made up 38% of the decline for the year and 48% of the decline for the fourth quarter.

我很高興盡我所能解決土狼的問題。 2015 年我們收購該公司時，我是董事會成員，但策略理由其實是為了擴大產品組合。擴大產品組合是一個非常深思熟慮的策略理由。但我認為我們當時並沒有完全理解這項業務的周期性。我會讓它成為現實。當我們在 2015 年收購 Coyote 時，Coyote 前一年的營收為 21 億美元。在新冠疫情期間，Coyote 的收入達到頂峰超過 40 億美元。嗯，從那時起它就一路下滑了。事實上，如果你看看我們的供應鏈解決方案業務，你會發現它比去年同期下降了 30 億美元，占公司整體跌幅的 1/3。在這 30 億美元中，Coyote 彌補了全年跌幅的 38% 和第四季跌幅的 48%。

So you can see the volatility in the revenues line and then we've got a business that has a very low margin. So if you've got that kind of volatility on the revenue line, you're going to have even more volatility on the earnings line. So we're like, gosh, is there are another way to skin this cat. Can we think about an alternative that continues to allow us to provide the service but without all the overhead or perhaps this business is worth more to someone else than it is to us. We don't know. We don't know the outcome of our alternative work. But as soon as we do, we'll share that with you. And on the freighter question.

所以你可以看到收入線的波動，然後我們的業務利潤率非常低。因此，如果你的營收線有這種波動，那麼你的收益線也會有更大的波動。所以我們想，天哪，還有另一種方法可以給這隻貓剝皮嗎？我們是否可以考慮一種替代方案，繼續允許我們提供服務，但無需承擔所有管理費用，或者這項業務對其他人來說可能比對我們更有價值。我們不知道。我們不知道替代工作的結果。但一旦我們這樣做了，我們就會與您分享。關於貨輪問題。

So the 2 planes were picked up through Qatar and really it's part of a broader airline strategy to retire some of the MD-11s in terms of efficiency and sustainability.

因此，這兩架飛機是透過卡達接收的，實際上，從效率和永續性角度來看，退役部分 MD-11 是更廣泛的航空公司策略的一部分。

Our next question will come from the line of Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自沃爾夫研究斯科特集團。

Just want to follow up a couple of things on the guidance. Brian, I know you said 10% U.S. margin exiting the year. Any color on the shape of the year? You also talked a couple of times about just Q1 being hard. Any more specific color on Q1 and then just lastly, I know every year on this call, you typically give an update on the biggest customer exposure, if you can give us an update there.

只是想跟進指導中的一些事情。 Brian，我知道你說過今年美國的利潤率為 10%。今年的形狀有什麼顏色嗎？你也多次談到第一季很難。關於第一季的任何更具體的顏色，最後，我知道每年在這次電話會議上，您通常都會提供最大客戶曝光的最新信息，如果您可以在那裡給我們更新的話。

Happy to, Scott. So from a domestic margin perspective, we're looking at the back half of the year being in the range of -- from an op profit perspective, we're looking at 20% to 30% growth, Scott, from a margin and from a margin will be in the 10% to 10%-plus range for the fourth quarter. The challenge we have is the first quarter, we actually expect to be down in the neighborhood. We had a low watermark in Q3 of last year. So we're not going to be down to that point but I don't think we'll be much better from a margin perspective in the U.S. in the first quarter of this year. From a Amazon perspective, we finished the year at 11.8%. And that was not due to an increase in the business, we're still executing our plan with them in terms of a glide down. It was more to the overall enterprise revenue coming down as a part of the enterprise.

很高興，斯科特。因此，從國內利潤率的角度來看，我們預計今年下半年的成長率將達到 20％ 至 30％，斯科特，從利潤率和第四季的利潤率將在 10% 至 10% 以上。我們面臨的挑戰是第一季度，我們實際上預計會下降。去年第三季我們的水位線較低。因此，我們不會下降到這一點，但我認為從今年第一季美國的利潤率角度來看，我們不會好得多。從亞馬遜的角度來看，我們今年的成長率為 11.8%。這並不是因為業務成長，我們仍在與他們一起執行下滑的計劃。更多的是作為企業一部分的整體企業收入下降。

It just came down faster than Amazon, yes.

是的，它的下降速度比亞馬遜還要快。

Steven, we have time for 1 more question.

史蒂文，我們還有時間回答 1 個問題。

Our final question will come from the line of Jordan Alliger of Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題將來自高盛的喬丹·阿利格（Jordan Alliger）。

So I was sort of thinking about the small package growth that you guys targeted at less than 1% this year. Feels pretty conservative after a couple of years of probably negative industry growth as well. So I'm just sort of curious what's informing that? Is that your economic outlook, your forecast? And then maybe this is, your Analyst Day you'll address it but sort of on a normalized basis, what kind of small package domestic growth, underlying industry growth you think about over a longer-term basis?

所以我在考慮你們今年設定的小包裝成長低於 1% 的目標。經過幾年可能出現的行業負增長之後，感覺相當保守。所以我只是有點好奇這說明了什麼？這是你的經濟前景、預測嗎？然後也許是，你的分析師日你會在正常化的基礎上解決這個問題，你在長期的基礎上考慮什麼樣的小規模國內增長、潛在的行業增長？

Yes. The longer-term view is very good. It's 3%. So that's really good growth actually. And we're looking forward to getting into that growth mode. We use a number of external factors to inform our perspective on the market growth. We triangulate from a number of different sources and come up with our best view. This is our best view.

是的。長遠來看是非常好的。是3%。所以這實際上是一個很好的成長。我們期待進入這種成長模式。我們利用許多外部因素來表達我們對市場成長的看法。我們從許多不同的來源進行三角測量，並得出我們的最​​佳觀點。這是我們最好的看法。

I will now turn the floor back over to our host, Mr. PJ Guido. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把發言權交還給我們的主人 PJ Guido 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Steven. This concludes our call. Thank you for joining and have a good day.

謝謝你，史蒂文。我們的通話到此結束。感謝您的加入，祝您有美好的一天。