聯合包裹運送服務公司 (UPS) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Greg Alexander, and I will be your facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the UPS Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). And after the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period.

早安.我叫格雷格‧亞歷山大，今天我將擔任你們的協調員。歡迎大家參加 UPS 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。演講者發言結束後，將進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. PJ Guido, Investor Relations Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

（操作員說明） 現在我很高興將發言權交給東道主投資者關係官 PJ Guido 先生。先生，地板是你的了。

Good morning, and welcome to the UPS Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Carol Tome, our CEO; Brian Dykes, our CFO; and a few additional members of our executive leadership team. Before we begin, I remind you that some of the comments we'll make today are forward-looking statements within the (inaudible) securities laws and address our expectations for the future performance or operating results of our company. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties which are described in our 2023 Form 10-K and other reports we file with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports, when filed, are available on the UPS Investor Relations website and from the SEC.

早上好，歡迎參加 UPS 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的執行長 Carol Tome； Brian Dykes，我們的財務長；以及我們執行領導團隊的一些其他成員。在開始之前，我提醒您，我們今天發表的一些評論是（聽不清楚）證券法範圍內的前瞻性陳述，並表達了我們對公司未來業績或經營業績的預期。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交或提供的 2023 年 10-K 表格和其他報告中進行了描述。這些報告提交後可在 UPS 投資者關係網站和 SEC 上取得。

Unless stated otherwise, our discussion today refers to non-GAAP adjusted results. For the third quarter of 2024, GAAP results included an after-tax net gain of $36 million or $0.04 per diluted share comprised of a $152 million gain from the divestiture of our (inaudible) business, transformation strategy cost of $116 million. Transformation strategy costs consisted of after-tax costs of $81 million related to our fit to serve program and $35 million related to our Transformation 2.0 program. Additional detail on our transformation costs and initiatives as well as a reconciliation of non-GAAP adjusted amounts to GAAP financial results is available in today's webcast material. These materials will also be available on the UPS Investor Relations website.

除非另有說明，我們今天的討論指的是非公認會計準則調整後的結果。 2024 年第三季度，GAAP 業績包括稅後淨收益 3,600 萬美元或稀釋每股 0.04 美元，其中包括剝離（聽不清楚）業務帶來的 1.52 億美元收益，轉型戰略成本為 1.16 億美元。轉型策略成本包括與「適合服務」計畫相關的 8,100 萬美元稅後成本和與「轉型 2.0」計畫相關的 3,500 萬美元。有關我們的轉型成本和計劃的更多詳細信息，以及非 GAAP 調整金額與 GAAP 財務業績的調節表，請參閱今天的網絡廣播材料。這些資料也將在 UPS 投資者關係網站上提供。

Following our prepared remarks, we will take questions from those joining us via the teleconference. (Operator Instructions). Please ask only one question so that we may allow as many as possible to participate. You may rejoin the queue for the opportunity to ask an additional question. And now I'll turn the call over to Carol.

在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將透過電話會議回答與會人員的問題。 （操作員說明）。請只提出一個問題，以便我們允許盡可能多的人參與。您可以重新加入隊列以獲得提出其他問題的機會。現在我將把電話轉給卡羅爾。

Thank you, P.J., and good morning. On our last earnings call, we said that the second quarter would not only be the bottom, but a turning point for our performance and that we would return to revenue and profit growth in the third quarter, which we did. I would like to recognize and thank UPS service for their hard work and efforts. Their relentless focus on driving productivity while ensuring excellent customer service allowed us to deliver these results. In the third quarter, we faced a macro environment that was slightly worse than we expected.

謝謝你，P.J.，早安。在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們表示第二季度不僅是我們業績的底部，而且是我們業績的轉折點，我們將在第三季度恢復收入和利潤增長，我們確實做到了。我要對 UPS 服務部門的辛勤工作和努力表示認可和感謝。他們不懈地致力於提高生產力，同時確保卓越的客戶服務，使我們能夠取得這些成果。第三季度，我們面臨的宏觀環境略差於我們的預期。

In the U.S., online sales slowed and manufacturing activity was lower than we anticipated. This slowdown in manufacturing activity was also true outside of the U.S. as we continue to see lower industrial production weigh on volume in certain geographies. But the (inaudible) environment didn't prevent us from growing revenue and profit. As we leaned into the parts of the market that value our end-to-end network, and we drove expense leverage through ongoing productivity initiatives.

在美國，線上銷售放緩，製造業活動低於我們的預期。美國以外地區的製造業活動也出現放緩，因為我們持續看到工業生產下降對某些地區的銷售造成壓力。但（聽不清楚）環境並沒有阻止我們增加收入和利潤。當我們深入到重視我們的端到端網路的市場部分時，我們透過持續的生產力計劃來提高費用槓桿。

In the third quarter, our consolidated revenue was $22.2 billion, an increase of 5.6% versus last year. Consolidated operating profit was $2 billion, up 22.8% from last year and consolidated operating margin was 8.9%. In the U.S., this was the second consecutive quarter of average daily volume growth and it was our highest year-over-year ADV growth rate since the first quarter of 2021. In international, average daily volume growth finished flattish and continue the upward momentum we've seen since the first quarter of this year. And in [FCS], air and ocean forwarding contributed to strong revenue growth.

第三季度，我們的綜合營收為 222 億美元，比去年成長 5.6%。綜合營業利潤為 20 億美元，比去年增長 22.8%，綜合營業利益率為 8.9%。在美國，這是日均交易量連續第二個季度增長，也是我們自2021 年第一季以來最高的日均交易量同比增長率。的上升勢頭。在[FCS]中，空運和海運為收入的強勁成長做出了貢獻。

Looking at the U.S. During the quarter, we focused on growing certain pockets of commercial business and grew B2B volume by nearly 1% compared to last year. One of the areas of commercial focus was retail B2B. Our B2B roots are in retail. In fact, we deliver merchandise to over 20,000 retail outlets across the country.

以美國為例，本季我們專注於發展某些商業業務，B2B 業務量與去年相比成長了近 1%。商業重點領域之一是零售 B2B。我們的 B2B 根源在於零售業。事實上，我們向全國 20,000 多家零售店運送商品。

To serve these customers, we offer a store replenishment with delivery windows solution that provides retailers daily inventory replenishment within a 2-hour window. Within this solution, we also provide visibility to the number of packages scheduled to be delivered. Our store replenishment solution, along with our RFID technology, enables retailers to reduce stock outs and more efficiently run their receiving operations. This is just one example of how our customer-focused capabilities are enabling us to win new commercial volume. Now that U.S.

為了服務這些客戶，我們提供了帶有送貨窗口的商店補貨解決方案，該解決方案為零售商提供 2 小時窗口內的日常庫存補貨。在此解決方案中，我們還提供了計劃交付的包裹數量的可見性。我們的商店補貨解決方案結合我們的 RFID 技術，使零售商能夠減少缺貨並更有效地經營其收貨業務。這只是我們以客戶為中心的能力如何幫助我們贏得新的商業量的一個例子。現在美國

volume is flowing back into our network, we have heightened our attention to revenue quality with a focus on the segments of the market we want to serve. You will recall that in the second quarter, we saw an unexpected surge of short zone, lightweight e-commerce packages flow into our network. In the third quarter, we responded strategically adjusting our pricing and optimizing our operating plans on a portion of this business. Further, we increased our focus on matching our pricing to the quality and attributes of the service we provide. We did this by leveraging the power of pricing science through our pricing architecture of tomorrow or AOT technology.

隨著流量回流到我們的網絡，我們更加關注收入質量，並專注於我們想要服務的細分市場。您可能還記得，在第二季度，我們看到短區域、輕量級電子商務包裹意外激增地流入我們的網路。第三季度，我們對部分業務進行了策略性調整定價和優化營運計畫。此外，我們更加重視將我們的定價與我們提供的服務的品質和屬性相匹配。我們透過未來的定價架構或 AOT 技術，利用定價科學的力量來做到這一點。

Our revenue per piece growth rate improved in the third quarter from what we reported in the second quarter, and we expect this trend to continue. On the cost side, our team did an excellent job of managing expenses across the board. As it relates to our 2 major cost-out initiatives, we are continuing to deliver solid results. Fit to serve, which was designed to optimize and rightsize our management structure is slightly ahead of forecast. And with Network of the Future, so far this year, we've completed 45 operational closures, including 9 full buildings that have been shut down.

我們第三季的每件營收成長率比第二季報告有所改善，我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去。在成本方面，我們的團隊在全面管理費用方面做得非常出色。由於它與我們的兩項主要成本削減計劃相關，因此我們將繼續取得紮實的成果。 「適合服務」旨在優化和調整我們的管理結構，略高於預期。透過未來網絡，今年到目前為止，我們已經完成了 45 個營運關閉，其中包括 9 座完整的建築。

I'd like to give you a brief update on our customer-first people-led innovation-driven strategy, starting with customer first. As we discussed, we have a goal to become the #1 complex health care logistics provider in the world. To that end, we said we would pursue certain inorganic opportunities and we have. Last month, we entered into an agreement to acquire Frigo-Trans, a move that will enhance our end-to-end temperature-sensitive health care capabilities across Europe. Today, 80% of pharmaceuticals in Europe require temperature-controlled transportation.

我想向您簡要介紹我們以客戶至上、以人為本、創新驅動的策略，從客戶至上開始。正如我們所討論的，我們的目標是成為世界第一的綜合醫療保健物流提供者。為此，我們說過我們將尋求某些無機機會，而我們確實做到了。上個月，我們簽訂了收購 Frigo-Trans 的協議，此舉將增強我們在整個歐洲的端到端溫度敏感醫療保健能力。如今，歐洲 80% 的藥品需要溫控運輸。

Frigo-Trans offers pan-European cold chain transportation as well as [tele] controls and time-critical freight forwarding capabilities. Plus Frigo-Trans has temperature-controlled warehousing capabilities with every temperature from cryopreservation, which is minus 196 degrees Celsius to ambient, which is about 25 degrees Celsius. We are targeting to close the Frigo-Trans acquisition in first quarter of next year. Complex Healthcare Logistics is a growing business for us and we're continuing to invest in the capabilities needed to accelerate growth. We have dedicated health care facilities in 36 countries and provide specialized handling and visibility to our customers through our UPS Premier product.

Frigo-Trans 提供泛歐冷鏈運輸以及[遠端]控制和時間緊迫的貨運代理能力。此外，Frigo-Trans 還具有溫控倉儲功能，從低溫保存（負 196 攝氏度）到常溫（約 25 攝氏度）的各種溫度。我們的目標是在明年第一季完成對 Frigo-Trans 的收購。複雜的醫療保健物流對我們來說是一項不斷成長的業務，我們將繼續投資於加速成長所需的能力。我們在 36 個國家設有專門的醫療保健設施，並透過 UPS Premier 產品為客戶提供專業處理和視覺性。

In the third quarter, we generated $2.5 billion in consolidated health care revenue which contributed to revenue growth across all 3 segments. Shifting to international. In time for the holidays, we've made several enhancements. In September, we expanded residential Saturday delivery to the 8 largest markets in Europe without an additional charge. This enhancement meets our customers' need for speed and we now provide a superior service offering.

第三季度，我們產生了 25 億美元的綜合醫療保健收入，為所有 3 個細分市場的收入成長做出了貢獻。轉向國際化。趁著假期，我們進行了許多改進。 9 月份，我們將週六住宅送貨範圍擴大到歐洲 8 個最大的市場，且不收取額外費用。這項增強功能滿足了客戶對速度的需求，我們現在提供優質的服務。

Further, we sped up deliveries to over 35 countries across Asia, Africa and the Middle East. And to meet the expected demand for this year's peak holiday season, we added over 200 flights connecting Asia to Europe and the U.S. Quickly touching on DAP, our digital access program. DAP continues to deliver strong SMB growth in both B2B and B2C segments. In the first 9 months of this year, we generated $2.3 billion in global DAP revenue and we expect to deliver over $3 billion in GAAP revenue for the full year.

此外，我們也加快了向亞洲、非洲和中東超過 35 個國家的交付速度。為了滿足今年假期旺季的預期需求，我們增加了 200 多個連接亞洲和歐洲和美國的航班。 DAP 繼續在 B2B 和 B2C 領域為中小企業帶來強勁成長。今年前 9 個月，我們在全球 DAP 收入中創造了 23 億美元，預計全年 GAAP 收入將超過 30 億美元。

As you know, we have been onboarding our new air cargo business with the United States Postal Service. During the third quarter, our network planning team worked closely with the USPS to ensure the transition progressed smoothly and it did. As of October 1, all contracted USPS air cargo business has been fully onboarded. And we expect this business to deliver strong, consistent revenue at an attractive margin. Moving to people led.

如您所知，我們一直在與美國郵政服務合作開展新的航空貨運業務。在第三季度，我們的網路規劃團隊與 USPS 密切合作，確保過渡順利進行，而且確實如此。截至10月1日，所有簽約的USPS航空貨運業務已全面啟動。我們預計這項業務將以有吸引力的利潤率提供強勁、穩定的收入。動以人為主導。

Since our founding, we've had a culture of driving safe work practices. And by using new technology and tools, we've seen a dramatic improvement in the number of injuries and accidents. For example, in the U.S., this year, we've had our best auto safety results in 10 years. The advances in safety were achieved through innovative driver education and training, like our Integrad driver training schools. This focus on safety enables driver achievements like our Circle of Honor which recognizes drivers with 25 years or more of driving without an accident.

自成立以來，我們一直擁有推動安全工作實踐的文化。透過使用新技術和工具，我們看到傷害和事故的數量顯著減少。例如，在美國，今年我們取得了 10 年來最好的汽車安全成績。安全方面的進步是透過創新的駕駛員教育和培訓實現的，例如我們的綜合駕駛員培訓學校。這種對安全的關注使駕駛員能夠取得像我們的榮譽圈這樣的成就，該榮譽表彰具有 25 年或以上駕駛經驗而沒有發生事故的駕駛員。

Today, our Circle of Honor is (inaudible) to nearly 10,000 drivers. Now let's turn to innovation driven which for (inaudible) is all about the peak holiday season. This year's holiday season has only 17 shipping days between Black Friday and Christmas Eve. We haven't seen such a compressed peak since 2019. We do peak better than anyone.

今天，我們的榮譽圈（聽不清楚）面向近 10,000 名司機。現在讓我們轉向創新驅動，（聽不清楚）這一切都與假期高峰期有關。今年的假期期間，黑色星期五和平安夜之間只有 17 個運輸日。自 2019 年以來，我們還沒有見過如此壓縮的峰值。

And with 6 years in a row of industry-leading service, we're confident our plans and execution will make that (inaudible). To prepare, we've been collaborating with our customers on (inaudible) expectations and the timing of their promotions. While our customers are still expecting a good holiday selling season, Recently, shippers have tempered their volume expectations. In any case, we'll be ready to deliver and will leverage our network planning tools and other proven technologies to control first how the volume comes in; second, how to flow more volume to our automated facilities; and third, how to adjust the network to operate as efficiently as possible. And talking about efficiency, this year on our peak day, which is December 18.

憑藉連續 6 年行業領先的服務，我們相信我們的計劃和執行將實現這一目標（聽不清楚）。為了做好準備，我們一直在與客戶就（聽不清楚）期望和促銷時機進行合作。雖然我們的客戶仍然期待一個良好的假期銷售季節，但最近，托運人已經降低了他們的銷售預期。無論如何，我們都將做好交付準備，並將利用我們的網路規劃工具和其他經過驗證的技術來首先控制流量的進入方式；第二，如何讓更多的流量流向我們的自動化設施；第三，如何調整網路以盡可能有效率地運作。說到效率，今年是我們的高峰日，也就是 12 月 18 日。

In the U.S., we expect to deliver 2 million more packages than we did on peak day last year but we'll do it at a higher productivity rate. This will be possible due to efficiency improvements we've made over the years and the use of seasonal support drivers, many of which are experienced part-time UPSers who work inside our facilities. To sum it up, we're ready to deliver another successful peak. Moving to our financial outlook. We continue our better, not bigger approach, enhanced by some bold moves.

在美國，我們預計將比去年高峰日多遞送 200 萬個包裹，但我們將以更高的生產力來實現這一目標。這之所以成為可能，是因為我們多年來提高了效率，並使用了季節性支援司機，其中許多司機是在我們設施內工作的經驗豐富的兼職 UPS 員工。總而言之，我們已經準備好迎接另一個成功的高峰。轉向我們的財務前景。我們將繼續採取更好而不是更大的方法，並透過一些大膽的舉措得到加強。

The addition of the USPS Air Cargo business and the divestiture of Coyote, are recent examples. With these moves, we eliminated a highly volatile truckload brokerage business and added air cargo volume that is predictable and margin positive. Looking at our consolidated revenue outlook. In the third quarter, we increased our emphasis on revenue quality, resulting in a guide down of certain volume, which we expect will continue into the fourth quarter. Given our third quarter results, our latest peak volume expectations and adjusting for the impact of the Coyote decision.

最近的例子是美國郵政航空貨運業務的增加和 Coyote 的剝離。透過這些舉措，我們消除了波動性大的整車經紀業務，並增加了可預測且利潤率為正的航空貨運量。看看我們的綜合收入前景。第三季度，我們更加重視收入質量，導致銷售出現一定程度的下降，我們預計這種情況將持續到第四季度。考慮到我們第三季的業績、我們最新的峰值銷售預期以及對 Coyote 決定的影響進行的調整。

We now expect consolidated revenue of approximately $91.1 billion for the year and are lifting our consolidated operating margin target to approximately [$0.9]. Brian will provide more details. So with that, thank you for listening. And now I'll turn the call over to Brian.

我們現在預計今年的綜合收入約為 911 億美元，並將我們的綜合營業利潤率目標提高至約 [0.9 美元]。布萊恩將提供更多細節。那麼，謝謝您的聆聽。現在我將把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thank you, Carol, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I will cover our third quarter results, review our capital allocation for the year, and then I'll wrap up by providing additional detail for our fourth quarter and full year financial outlook. Starting with our results. In the third quarter, we returned to revenue and profit growth the first time in 2 years. Looking at our consolidated performance.

謝謝你，卡羅爾，大家早安。今天早上，我將介紹我們的第三季業績，回顧我們今年的資本分配，然後我將提供有關我們第四季度和全年財務前景的更多詳細資訊。從我們的結果開始。第三季度，我們兩年來首次恢復營收和利潤成長。看看我們的綜合業績。

In the third quarter, we generated $22.2 billion in revenue, an increase of 5.6% compared to the third quarter of last year, with all 3 of our business segments delivering revenue growth. Consolidated operating profit was $2 billion, an increase of 22.8% versus the third quarter of 2023 and consolidated operating margin was 8.9%, an increase of 120 basis points compared to the third quarter of last year. Diluted earnings per share was $1.76, up 12.1% from the third quarter of 2023. Now let's look at our business segment. In the U.S.

第三季度，我們實現了 222 億美元的收入，比去年第三季度成長了 5.6%，我們的所有 3 個業務部門都實現了收入成長。綜合營運利潤為 20 億美元，較 2023 年第三季成長 22.8%，綜合營運利潤率為 8.9%，較去年第三季成長 120 個基點。稀釋後每股收益為 1.76 美元，較 2023 年第三季成長 12.1%。在美國

Domestic segment, our performance in the third quarter was driven by 2 factors: first was strong volume growth the highest growth rate we've seen in more than 3 years. And second was excellent cost management, which resulted in a year-over-year decrease in cost per piece of 4.1%. The U.S. average daily (inaudible) more ADV increased 6.5% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Looking at product mix in the third quarter, Ground average daily volume increased 8.9% and total air average daily volume was down 6.3%.

國內業務方面，我們第三季的業績受到兩個因素的推動：首先是銷售量的強勁成長，這是我們三年多來看到的最高成長率。其次是優秀的成本管理，導致單件成本較去年同期下降 4.1%。與2023 年第三季相比，美國日均（聽不清楚）ADV 成長了6.5%。 6.3%。

We continue to see customers shifting down from air to ground and some ground volume is shifting down to SurePost. Within ground, SurePost volume levels rightly compared to the second quarter, driven by growth in our digital access program. While SurePost volume comes at a lower revenue per piece, given the enhancements we've made to our matching algorithm, we were able to redirect more SurePost packages into our network, driving delivery density. For the quarter, B2B average daily volume was up 0.8% year-over-year, increasing from (inaudible) time in 2 years. Growth was driven by SMBs, which had an increase in B2B average daily volume of 3.8 (inaudible) B2C average daily volume increased 11% year-over-year and made up 58.3% of our volume, a slight downward shift from the second quarter.

我們繼續看到客戶從空中轉移到地面，並且一些地面流量正在轉移到 SurePost。在我們的數位存取計畫成長的推動下，SurePost 的交易量與第二季相比表現良好。雖然 SurePost 數量的每件收入較低，但考慮到我們對匹配演算法所做的增強，我們能夠將更多 SurePost 包裹重定向到我們的網路中，從而提高投遞密度。本季度，B2B 日均交易量年增 0.8%，較兩年來（聽不清楚）有所成長。成長是由中小企業推動的，其中 B2B 日均交易量增加了 3.8（聽不清楚），B2C 日均交易量同比增長 11%，占我們交易量的 58.3%，較第二季度略有下降。

In terms of customer mix, we saw ADV growth from both enterprise and SMB customers. SMBs made up 29.4% of total U.S. volume in the third quarter. For the quarter, U.S. domestic generated revenue of $14.5 billion, up 5.8% compared to last year, driven by strong volume growth.

在客戶結構方面，我們看到企業和中小企業客戶的 ADV 都在成長。第三季度，中小企業占美國總交易量的 29.4%。在銷售強勁成長的推動下，本季美國國內營收達 145 億美元，較去年成長 5.8%。

As expected, U.S. domestic revenue per piece was down year-over-year. In the third quarter, revenue per piece declined 2.2% year-over-year but showed a 40 basis point sequential improvement from the second quarter. Breaking down the components. First, we took actions to address revenue quality which translated into higher base rate.

正如預期的那樣，美國國內每件收入年減。第三季度，每件營收年減 2.2%，但較第二季較上季增加 40 個基點。分解組件。首先，我們採取行動解決收入品質問題，這轉化為更高的基本費率。

In the quarter, base rates increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 170 basis points. Second, the combination of product mix, lighter weights and shorter zones decreased the revenue per piece growth rate by 300 basis points. And finally, we experienced a 90 basis point decline in the revenue per piece growth rate due to the combination of changes in customer mix and fuel. Turning to costs. As you will recall, the cost of our new labor contract was front-end loaded.

本季度，基本費率使每件營收成長率提高了 170 個基點。其次，產品組合、更輕的重量和更短的區域相結合，使每個收入成長率降低了 300 個基點。最後，由於客戶結構和燃料的變化，我們的每件收入成長率下降了 90 個基點。轉向成本。您可能還記得，我們​​新的勞動合約的成本是前端加載的。

As of the end of (inaudible), we lapped the first year of the contract and for the quarter, union wage rate growth slowed to 5.2% year-over-year. Productivity is a virtuous cycle at UPS, and in the third quarter, we took several actions to drive productivity. Through our Network of the Future initiative, this year, we've completed 45 operational closures, contributing to an 8% improvement in pieces for workforce hour. While 8% might not seem like a big number, that translated into an efficiency gain of 11 million hours. Production improvements, including total service plan, offset 50% of the union wage increase, and we continue to see positive trends in our safety performance, which contributed to lower expense.

截至（聽不清楚）年底，我們完成了合約的第一年，本季工會薪資成長率年減至 5.2%。在 UPS 中，生產力是一個良性循環，在第三季度，我們採取了多項行動來提高生產力。透過我們的「未來網路」計劃，今年我們已經完成了 45 個業務關閉，使工作時間的件數減少了 8%。雖然 8% 看起來似乎不是一個大數字，但這意味著 1100 萬小時的效率提升。包括整體服務計劃在內的生產改進抵消了工會薪資成長的 50%，而且我們繼續看到安全績效的正面趨勢，這有助於降低費用。

The U.S. Domestic segment delivered $974 million in operating profit a 46.5% increase compared to the third quarter of 2023, and the operating margin was 6.7%, a year-over-year increase of 180 basis points. Moving to our International segment. In the third quarter, our international business grew revenue and operating profit and expanded operating margin for the first time in nearly 3 years. This performance was driven by strength in exports in 13 of our top 20 export countries.

美國國內業務實現營業利潤 9.74 億美元，較 2023 年第三季成長 46.5%，營業利潤率為 6.7%，年增 180 個基點。轉向我們的國際部分。第三季度，我們的國際業務收入和營業利潤成長，營業利潤率近三年來首次擴大。這項業績是由 20 個最大出口國家中 13 個國家的出口強勁推動的。

Total international average daily volume growth continued its sequential improvement trend from the second quarter and was about flat to last year. In the third quarter, International revenue was $4.4 billion, up 3.4% from last year, with all regions growing revenue year-over-year. International revenue per piece increased 2.5%, driven by strong base pricing and the positive impact of region and product mix. Touching on costs. Total international expense was relatively flat year-over-year, which was achieved by optimizing our network and our ongoing cost management efforts.

國際平均日交易量總量成長延續了第二季的連續改善趨勢，與去年基本持平。第三季度，國際營收為 44 億美元，較去年成長 3.4%，所有地區營收均較去年同期成長。由於強勁的基本定價以及地區和產品組合的正面影響，每件國際收入成長了 2.5%。談到成本。國際總費用較去年同期相對持平，這是透過優化我們的網路和持續的成本管理工作來實現的。

Operating profit in the International segment was $792 million, an increase of 17.3% year-over-year. Operating margin in the third quarter was 18%, ending 220 basis points from a year ago. Moving to Supply Chain Solutions. In the third quarter, revenue was $3.4 billion, up 8% year-over-year. Looking at the key drivers.

國際部門營業利潤為7.92億美元，較去年成長17.3%。第三季營業利益率為 18%，較去年同期上升 220 個基點。轉向供應鏈解決方案。第三季營收為34億美元，年增8%。看看關鍵的驅動因素。

Air and ocean forwarding revenue was up 15.1% driven by strong market demand out of Asia. Logistics delivered revenue growth, driven primarily by the impact of the MNX acquisition and onboarding of USPS Air Cargo contributed to revenue growth in SCS. Partially offsetting these gains was weaker performance at Coyote, our truckload brokerage business and the completion of the sale in mid-September. In the third quarter, Supply Chain Solutions generated operating profit of $217 million, down $58 million year-over-year, primarily driven by our efforts to configure our air network as we onboarded the USPS Air Cargo business. Now that we have fully onboarded this volume, we expect it to generate consistent revenue and we expect an attractive margin on a consolidated basis.

受亞洲強勁市場需求的推動，空運和海運收入成長了 15.1%。物流業務實現了收入成長，這主要是受 MNX 收購的影響以及 USPS Air Cargo 的加入推動了 SCS 的收入成長。我們的整車經紀業務 Coyote 的業績疲軟以及 9 月中旬完成的出售部分抵消了這些收益。第三季度，供應鏈解決方案實現營業利潤 2.17 億美元，年減 5,800 萬美元，這主要是由於我們在加入 USPS 航空貨運業務時努力配置我們的航空網絡。現在我們已經完全啟動了這項業務量，我們預計它將產生持續的收入，並且我們預計合併後的利潤率具有吸引力。

For SCS, operating margin in the third quarter was 6.4%. Walking through the rest of the income statement. We had $230 million of interest expense. Our other pension income was $68 million, and our effective tax rate for the third quarter was approximately 21%. Now let's turn to cash and capital allocation.

SCS第三季營業利益率為6.4%。瀏覽損益表的其餘部分。我們有 2.3 億美元的利息支出。我們的其他退休金收入為 6,800 萬美元，第三季的有效稅率約為 21%。現在讓我們轉向現金和資本配置。

So far this year, we generated $6.8 billion in cash from operations and free cash flow of $4 billion, including our annual pension contribution of $1.4 billion. We refinanced $1.5 billion in current maturities year-to-date, and we finished the quarter with strong liquidity and no outstanding commercial paper. So far this year, UPS has paid $4 billion in dividends. And lastly, we've completed our targeted $500 million share repurchase program in the third quarter, which brings us to our outlook. In July, we provided an update to our full year financial targets based on global economic forecast and our performance in the first half of the year.

今年到目前為止，我們的營運現金為 68 億美元，自由現金流為 40 億美元，其中包括每年 14 億美元的退休金繳款。年初至今，我們為目前到期的債券進行了 15 億美元的再融資，本季末我們的流動性強勁，沒有未償還的商業票據。今年到目前為止，UPS 已支付了 40 億美元的股息。最後，我們在第三季完成了 5 億美元的股票回購計劃，這讓我們得出了我們的展望。 7月，我們根據全球經濟預測和上半年業績，更新了全年財務目標。

Now looking ahead at the full year, we have updated our outlook to reflect 3 things. First, our third quarter results and a focus on revenue quality; second, the sale of Coyote and finally, new softer peak volume forecast from our customers. At the consolidated level, we now expect full year revenue of approximately $91.1 billion. Due to our focus on revenue quality, coupled with the efficiency of our integrated network and our ability to manage costs, we are lifting our consolidated operating margin expectation to approximately 9.6% to align with these new volume and revenue expectations. Now looking at the segments in the fourth quarter.

現在展望全年，我們更新了展望以反映三件事。首先，我們第三季的業績以及對收入品質的關注；其次，Coyote 的銷售，最後是我們客戶的新的軟峰值銷售預測。在合併層面，我們現在預計全年營收約為 911 億美元。由於我們對收入品質的關注，加上我們綜合網路的效率和管理成本的能力，我們將綜合營業利潤率預期提高至約 9.6%，以符合這些新的銷售和收入預期。現在來看看第四季的細分市場。

Starting with U.S. domestic. We expect the combination of both volume and revenue per piece growth to increase revenue by 1.5% in the fourth quarter. We expect to generate a fourth quarter operating margin of approximately 9.5% and we now expect the operating margin in semi slightly higher than 10%. Looking at international, we expect the positive volume momentum we've experienced throughout the year will continue.

從美國國內開始。我們預計，銷量和單件收入的成長相結合將使第四季度收入成長 1.5%。我們預計第四季的營業利潤率約為 9.5%，目前我們預期半成品的營業利潤率略高於 10%。展望國際市場，我們預計全年所經歷的積極銷售動能將持續下去。

With that in mind, we expect fourth quarter revenue growth to be up mid-single digits year-over-year, and we still expect around a 20% operating margin in the fourth quarter. In Supply Chain Solutions, we expect revenue in the fourth quarter of around $3.3 billion, which takes into consideration the disposition of Coyote, and we expect to generate an operating margin of approximately 9%. Turning to capital allocation. For the full year in 2024, we expect free cash flow to be around $5.1 billion after the $1.4 billion pension contribution we made to fund annual service costs. Capital expenditures are expected to be about $4 billion.

考慮到這一點，我們預計第四季度營收將年增至中個位數，並且我們仍然預計第四季度營業利潤率約為 20%。在供應鏈解決方案方面，我們預計第四季的營收約為 33 億美元，考慮到 Coyote 的處置，我們預計將產生約 9% 的營業利潤率。轉向資本配置。 2024 年全年，我們預計在繳納 14 億美元退休金用於支付年度服務成本後，自由現金流將約為 51 億美元。資本支出預計約40億美元。

We plan to pay around $5.4 billion in dividends, subject to Board approval, and lastly, we expect the tax rate for the full year to be between 23% and 23.5%. With that, operator, please open the lines for questions.

我們計劃支付約 54 億美元的股息，須經董事會批准，最後，我們預計全年稅率在 23% 至 23.5% 之間。那麼，接線員，請打開提問線路。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧佛農，伯恩斯坦。

So when we think about the ramp here from 3Q into 4Q, the operating profit guidance sort of suggests close to a 50% bump from 3Q to 4Q. Brian, maybe can you walk us through some of the drivers of what makes that look realistic? And then as you think about those drivers taking hold, how does that affect sort of the shape of profitability as we carry into 2025?

因此，當我們考慮從第三季到第四季的成長時，營業利潤指引似乎顯示從第三季到第四季成長了近 50%。 Brian，也許你可以向我們介紹一些讓這一切看起來更現實的驅動因素嗎？然後，當您考慮這些驅動因素時，這會對 2025 年的獲利能力產生何種影響？

Sure. Thank you, David, and I appreciate the question. And yes, we do have an increase from Q3 to Q4 on the profit side. And really, it's driven by a couple of things. One, as we mentioned, this focus on revenue quality and the moves that we've made to drive revenue both through pricing policy as well as the take rates that we're seeing on (inaudible) coupled with the acceleration of Fit to Serve and Network of the Future and just the productivity initiatives give us the incremental bump over the normal seasonality.

當然。謝謝你，大衛，我很欣賞這個問題。是的，我們的利潤確實從第三季到第四季有所成長。事實上，它是由幾件事驅動的。一，正如我們所提到的，這種關注是對收入品質的關注，以及我們透過定價政策以及我們所看到的（聽不清）採取率來推動收入的舉措，再加上“適合服務”的加速和未來的網路和生產力計劃使我們比正常的季節性增加了增量。

We feel very confident in both of those, and we're seeing them actually start to come through in the third quarter and early in the fourth quarter on the revenue side. And you can see from our cost performance, we feel that Fit to Serve and NOS is sticking very well.

我們對這兩個方面都非常有信心，我們看到它們實際上在第三季和第四季初開始在收入方面實現。從我們的性價比可以看出，我們認為 Fit to Serve 和 NOS 堅持得很好。

And how that could affect sort of into 2025?

這會對 2025 年產生什麼影響？

Yes, yes. And so as we roll through '24, you can see that we've raised the consolidated margin. We do expect the domestic margin to be around 9.5%. And now we do expect to exit the year higher than slightly higher than the 10% that we guided to before. We'll come back to you as we get through peak on '25, but we want to close our peak first.

是的，是的。因此，當我們滾動到 24 年時，您可以看到我們提高了合併利潤率。我們預計國內利潤率將在 9.5% 左右。現在我們預計今年退出時的成長率將略高於我們先前指引的 10%。當我們度過 25 年的高峰時，我們會再聯繫您，但我們希望首先結束我們的高峰。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

布萊恩‧奧森貝克，摩根大通。

Maybe can you expand a little bit more on the softness you're seeing into peak season? What type of themes and concerns maybe you're hearing from the customers as they sort of dialed down their expectations on volume? And maybe within that, a broader comment on the pricing and the surcharges thinking if you're getting more pushback on that or seeing more trade downs at this point?

也許您可以進一步擴展一下您在旺季看到的疲軟情況嗎？當客戶降低對音量的期望時，您可能會從他們那裡聽到什麼類型的主題和擔憂？也許在這之中，對定價和附加費進行更廣泛的評論，思考你是否會在這一點上受到更多的阻力或看到更多的交易下跌？

Well, I'll start with the customer feedback. We work with a little over 100 of our customers who represent 60% of the volume in our network, but 85% of the peak surge. So we develop operating plans for each of these customers, and these plans have been in process now for months. As the year has progressed, they continue to tighten up their forecast, and we just received their last forecast on October 2. And their forecasts have been tempered and we believe it's driven by a couple of factors.

好吧，我將從客戶回饋開始。我們與 100 多個客戶合作，這些客戶占我們網路中流量的 60%，但也佔高峰的 85%。因此，我們為每個客戶制定了營運計劃，這些計劃已經進行了幾個月。隨著今年的進展，他們繼續收緊預測，我們剛剛在 10 月 2 日收到他們的最後一次預測。

First, external forecast for the holiday season have come in. In fact, the forecast for ESMO in the fourth quarter is now about 3%. Early in the year, it had been about 5%. If you look at just the peak part of the holiday season, forecast are all over the board, candidly, from a low of 2% to a high of 11%, and SMB Global has been at about 3.5%. Part of this, we believe, is influenced by the tight compressed peak period.

首先，外部對假期的預測已經到來。今年年初，這一比例約為 5%。如果你只看假期季節的高峰部分，坦白說，預測都是全面的，從低點 2% 到高點 11%，而 SMB Global 的成長率約為 3.5%。我們認為，部分原因是受到高峰期緊縮的影響。

There are only 17 shipping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. And what forecasters and some of our customers are saying is because of the tightness of the shipping season that many customers will go into a store to complete their holiday purchases. The consumer actually is in pretty good shape but we think there'll be some dynamics in how the consumer shops during the peak season. So it will still be a good peak. In fact, in our prepared remarks, called out that our peak day, we'll deliver 2 million more packages than we did last year.

感恩節和聖誕節之間只有 17 個運輸日。預測者和我們的一些客戶表示，由於運輸季節的緊張，許多客戶會進入商店完成假期採購。消費者實際上狀況相當不錯，但我們認為消費者在旺季期間的購物方式將會發生一些變化。所以這仍然會是一個很好的峰值。事實上，我們在準備好的演講中指出，在高峰日，我們將比去年多遞送 200 萬個包裹。

It'll still be a good peak, but just not as dynamic as people thought at the beginning of the year. Whatever happens, we're prepared to handle the volume. And then on the pricing surcharge. We were seeing real good take rate on the pricing charge for the holiday, I should say. And maybe Matt Guffey is here, Matt, perhaps you want to comment on the holiday surcharge.

這仍然會是一個不錯的高峰，但只是不像人們年初想的那樣充滿活力。無論發生什麼，我們都準備好處理這個問題。然後是定價附加費。我應該說，我們看到假期定價費用的接受率非常高。也許馬特·加菲在這裡，馬特，也許你想對假期附加費發表評論。

Yes, absolutely. So first off, we're working closely in collaboration with all of our customers. Carol talked about the top 100, which are extremely important just due to the peakiness that they bring during the season. But we've really worked -- again, we've got a good structure and a process in place where we can manage our holiday demand surcharge at the customer level, and we have a lot more flexibility to work with them as we go through the peak season. Look, at the end of it, it's all about us creating -- continuing to drive value with our customers.

是的，絕對是。首先，我們正在與所有客戶密切合作。卡羅爾談到了前 100 名，這非常重要，因為他們在賽季中帶來了巔峰。但我們真的很努力——再說一次，我們有一個良好的結構和流程，我們可以在客戶層面管理我們的假期需求附加費，並且在我們經歷過程中，我們可以更靈活地與他們合作旺季。瞧，歸根結底，這一切都是關於我們創造——繼續為我們的客戶創造價值。

and to deliver a great peak. So we're staying close on the forecast, but also working very closely with them on this holiday demand for (inaudible).

並創造一個偉大的巔峰。因此，我們密切注意預測，但也與他們就假期需求（聽不清楚）密切合作。

And we're seeing a good [keep] rate on --

我們看到了良好的[保持]率——

Yes. Very, very good keep rate, probably one of the best keep rates we've seen.

是的。非常非常好的保留率，可能是我們見過的最好的保留率之一。

And Brian, I would just add that we're on our plan. If you remember, there were changes because of the compressed peak that opened the peak -- the holiday demand surcharge to a larger set of volume right? And that's what drives some of the incremental outperformance year-over-year that you're seeing.

布萊恩，我想補充一點，我們正在按計劃進行。如果你還記得的話，由於高峰期的壓縮，高峰期出現了變化——假期需求附加費增加到了更大的交易量，對嗎？這就是您所看到的業績逐年遞增的原因。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

克里斯‧韋瑟比，富國銀行。

I wanted to drill down a little bit on the cost improvement on a per-piece basis in domestic, so down about 4 -- it was better than what we were looking for. I guess maybe -- 2 pieces to the question. How do you think about that progress potential in the fourth quarter and then maybe widening out a little bit with some of the initiatives that you're working on a bigger picture about managing the footprint as well as maybe the headcount. How do we think this can trend as we move into 2021?

我想在國內每件成本的基礎上深入研究一下，所以降低了大約 4——這比我們想要的要好。我想也許──這個問題有兩個部分。您如何看待第四季度的進展潛力，然後可能會透過您正在製定的一些措施來擴大一些範圍，以管理足跡以及員工人數。進入 2021 年，我們認為這種趨勢會如何？

So why don't you take the fourth quarter question, and we'll turn to Nando for some thoughts.

那麼，為什麼不回答第四季的問題，我們將向 Nando 尋求一些想法。

Great. Yes. Thank you. And yes, it's a great question because the cost performance in the third quarter was outstanding, right? And I think there's a couple of dynamics that are going on.

偉大的。是的。謝謝。是的，這是一個很好的問題，因為第三季的性價比非常出色，對吧？我認為有一些動態正在發生。

As we said in our earlier remarks, we lapped the contract at the end of July, right? So you start to see that high wage inflation that we talked about in the second quarter as being 12% now coming down to 5.2%. And we will now get a full clean quarter of wage inflation at a normalized level in Q4. But also as we mentioned, we're -- we've exited it to serve and are now outperforming our forecast as well as you'll see from the network of the future discussion that we've closed more stores and we closed more buildings. So we're pulling that forward helps in the cost performance.

正如我們之前所說，我們在七月底就完成了合同，對吧？因此，你開始看到我們在第二季度談到的 12% 的高薪通膨現在已降至 5.2%。現在，我們將在第四季度獲得一個完全乾淨的季度薪資通膨，處於正常化水平。但正如我們所提到的，我們已經退出了服務，現在的表現超出了我們的預測，您將從未來討論的網絡中看到，我們已經關閉了更多商店，我們關閉了更多建築物。因此，我們推動這項進程有助於提高成本效益。

As we carry into Q4, we do expect to have strong cost performance. We'll probably be up about 1% per piece which is still going to be less than our reprice growth rate, so we'll maintain a positive spread, but it will be a little bit more normal as you go through it. Nando, do you want to talk a little bit about network in the future and we're looking forward?

當我們進入第四季度時，我們確實預計會有強勁的性價比。我們可能每件上漲約 1%，這仍然低於我們的重新定價成長率，因此我們將保持正利差，但當你經歷它時，它會更正常一些。 Nando，您想在未來談論一下網路嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Brian. And look, you may be asking how are we able to have 45 operational closures and [9] buildings that we've closed. We are moving much more volume about 5% through our automated facilities. And we're also making sure that our legacy production indices are performing the way we expect them to perform.

是的。謝謝，布萊恩。看，您可能會問我們如何能夠關閉 45 個營運場所和關閉的 [9] 棟建築。我們透過自動化設施運輸的貨物量增加了約 5%。我們也確保我們的傳統生產指數的表現符合我們的預期。

The teams are doing an excellent job allowing us to really shrink the network and be a lot more productive. Safety, of course, helped -- and at the end of the day, it comes down to hours and people, and we were down about 11 million hours compared to the last year. So really just an excellent job all around. And the last thing I would say is there's nothing that we're overlooking. So every piece of our business from car wash to automated dispatching we are prepared for all of it and looking and scrutinizing all of that cost and finding some good improvements there.

這些團隊做得非常出色，使我們能夠真正縮小人脈並提高工作效率。當然，安全也有所幫助——歸根結底，這取決於工作時間和人員，與去年相比，我們減少了約 1,100 萬小時。所以這確實是一份非常出色的工作。我要說的最後一件事是我們沒有忽視任何事情。因此，我們的每一項業務，從洗車到自動調度，我們都做好了準備，並審視和審查所有成本，並在那裡找到一些好的改進。

All the while maintaining outstanding service levels, which is job #1 for UPS. And just to put the 5% number that Nando mentioned into perspective, is talking about automated volumes through our hubs, right? And we now process 63% of the volume in our hubs in some sort of an automated way. That's up 5 percentage points from a year ago. That's pretty good.

同時保持卓越的服務水平，這是 UPS 的首要任務。為了正確看待 Nando 提到的 5% 的數字，我們正在談論透過我們的中心實現的自動化交易量，對吧？現在，我們的中心以某種自動化方式處理 63% 的流量。比一年前增加了 5 個百分點。那很好。

Absolutely. And look, we've got 21 active projects here in this quarter. You would think it's peak season. Why would we take that undertaking? We have full confidence that that's going to provide very good productivity improvements.

絕對地。看吧，本季我們有 21 個活躍項目。你可能會認為現在是旺季。我們為什麼要承擔這項任務？我們完全有信心這將帶來非常好的生產力提升。

And then next year, we're accelerating and pulling in the number of projects that we can execute in 2025.

明年，我們將加速並增加 2025 年可以執行的專案數量。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

湯姆‧瓦德維茨，瑞銀集團。

Yes. Congratulations on the strong results. I wanted to ask a bit about -- Carol, you started the call, I think you commented about some industrial economy weakness. You're clearly doing some idiosyncratic things that are going well. How do you think about as we go into 2025, how much of margin improvement would be in your control?

是的。祝賀取得了優異的成績。我想問一些關於卡羅爾的問題，你發起了這次電話會議，我認為你評論了一些工業經濟的弱點。顯然你正在做一些進展順利的特殊事情。您如何看待進入 2025 年時，您可以控制多少利潤率改善？

And if you don't see improvement in macro, is it reasonable to translate improvement in revenue per piece and network of the future, those things to margin expansion?

如果你沒有看到宏觀的改善，那麼將未來每件收入和網路的改善轉化為利潤率擴張是否合理？

Well, I think our team has done a masterful job of managing a very choppy environment over the past several years, actually. And as we think about our business outside the United States, we saw improvement in every quarter this year. In fact, our export business grew in the third quarter and domestic was down just slightly. So Kate, maybe you want to talk about how you would manage the business outside the United States if the industrial production remains softish.

嗯，我認為我們的團隊實際上在過去幾年裡在管理一個非常不穩定的環境方面做得非常出色。當我們考慮我們在美國以外的業務時，我們發現今年每個季度都有所改善。事實上，我們的出口業務在第三季有所成長，而國內業務則略有下降。凱特，也許您想談談如果工業生產仍然疲軟，您將如何管理美國以外的業務。

Yes, absolutely. And I think the quarter was a good example of that. The macro indicators have come down, but yet we've expanded the revenue profit and margin in the international business and posting an 8% margin. We intend to continue to run those same plays. Let me go into a few just as Nando indicated on the domestic side.

是的，絕對是。我認為本季就是一個很好的例子。宏觀指標下降，但我們國際業務的收入利潤和利潤率有所擴大，利潤率達到8%。我們打算繼續上演同樣的戲劇。正如南多在國內方面所指出的那樣，讓我談談一些。

60% of our volume goes through automated hubs. And that's for the domestic and transporter of all of our large international volume market. And then on the air side of the house, we continue to show that revenue quality matters, especially when you had on [sim] assets. and we align with demand. So we had strong (inaudible).

我們 60% 的交易量通過自動化中心。這適用於我們所有大型國際市場的國內和運輸商。然後，在房屋的空氣側，我們繼續表明收入品質很重要，尤其是當您擁有[模擬]資產時。我們與需求保持一致。所以我們有很強的（聽不清楚）。

For international, we held our cost CPP flat and so delivered operating leverage. We would continue to do that into the next year.

對於國際市場，我們保持 CPP 成本不變，因此實現了營運槓桿。我們將在明年繼續這樣做。

And in markets that are soft to win, you gain share and you gain share by dropping price, but by actually increasing your capability. And our Saturday delivery is one example of that. We are the only carrier that offers standard Saturday delivery and no charge in these 8 markets. And that's driving some nice performance isn't it, Kate? We started it.

在難以獲勝的市場中，你可以透過降低價格來獲得份額，但實際上是透過提高你的能力來獲得份額。我們週六的送貨就是一個例子。我們是唯一在這 8 個市場免費提供標準週六送貨服務的承運商。這會帶來一些不錯的表現，不是嗎，凱特？我們開始了。

It really is in Europe and Canada exceeding expectations unlocking more of the customer share of wallet and in the premium spaces, too. So cross-border trade. We're seeing growth with the expansion of our service out of Asia to Europe as well as throughout Intra Asia. We've made the lanes faster and as a result, that premium unlock and by the way, with record fees growing. So we feel good about the equation, and we'll definitely continue it.

在歐洲和加拿大，它確實超出了預期，釋放了更多的錢包客戶份額，而且在高端領域也是如此。所以跨境貿易。隨著我們的服務從亞洲擴展到歐洲以及整個亞洲內部，我們看到了成長。我們讓通道變得更快，因此，溢價解鎖，順便說一句，費用創紀錄地增長。所以我們對這個方程式感覺很好，我們一定會繼續下去。

I don't think I asked the question well. I actually was thinking a little bit about domestic in terms of the margin.

我覺得我這個問題問得不好。事實上，我在考慮國內的利潤方面。

So I think in the domestic side, productivity is a virtuous cycle here. And as Nando pointed out, there's nothing that's not under review, right? Everything under review, and we continue to drive productivity that exceeds our expectations. Brian, anything you want to?

所以我認為在國內方面，生產力在這裡是一個良性循環。正如 Nando 指出的那樣，沒有什麼是不經過審查的，對嗎？一切都在審查中，我們將繼續提高生產力，超越我們的預期。布萊恩，你想要什麼嗎？

Yes. I would just say, so if you remember, look, we've got a contract that locked up that we have known cost for the next 4 years for 60% of our domestic cost structure with a focus on revenue quality and our ability to win more and win new and the places where we really want to, like you saw in the third quarter, with commercial and SMB commercial growing -- starting to grow again. We do think we have the ability to, one, continue to take action to drive [retrofit] ourselves as well as, as Carol said, productive virtuous cycle with a known cost structure as we go into '25.

是的。我只想說，如果你還記得的話，看，我們有一份合同，其中鎖定了我們已知的未來 4 年成本，占我們國內成本結構的 60%，重點是收入質量和我們獲勝的能力更多並贏得新的和我們真正想要的地方，就像你在第三季度看到的那樣，隨著商業和中小企業商業的增長——開始再次增長。我們確實認為我們有能力，第一，繼續採取行動推動[改造]我們自己，正如卡羅爾所說，隨著我們進入 25 年，以已知的成本結構實現富有成效的良性循環。

And we like that commercial business. We -- it's got a more dense delivery metric associated with that in other words more packages per delivery. And one way we can win commercial is with new capabilities. We had a big win in the third quarter and the determining factor for this customer to come into our network for our RFID labels. So that's a new capability that we didn't have before.

我們喜歡這種商業業務。我們有一個更密集的交付指標，換句話說，每次交付更多的包裹。我們贏得商業的方法之一就是擁有新的功能。我們在第三季取得了巨大的勝利，這也是該客戶進入我們的 RFID 標籤網路的決定性因素。這是我們以前沒有的新功能。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

康納·坎寧安，Melius 研究中心。

Okay. We'll move on.

好的。我們會繼續前進。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

Question for you. So a little bit more on the U.S. postal onboarding, if I could. Maybe if you could share some of the experience, I know you had the upfront step-up costs, but as it's still a few weeks in, perhaps talk about how the operations are going there? Is it delivering on the profit levels that you had talked about?

向你提問。如果可以的話，請多介紹一些有關美國郵政的資訊。也許您可以分享一些經驗，我知道您有前期的升級成本，但由於還需要幾週時間，也許可以談談那裡的運作情況如何？它是否達到了您所說的利潤水平？

And just any general thoughts around how that's going to contribute going forward?

關於這將如何為未來做出貢獻的任何一般想法？

Well, as you point out, Jordan, we did have a bit of a transition in the third quarter, the USPS contract with their previous carrier expired October 1. And we didn't want to wait until October 1 to onboard that volume because peak is right around the corner. So we agreed with the USPS that we would operationalize this service to them, while over time, they onboarded their volume. And it was over time, actually, we didn't get much wait until September. So there was a mismatch between our operational model and the volume.

好吧，正如你所指出的，喬丹，我們在第三季度確實經歷了一些過渡，USPS 與他們之前的承運商的合約於10 月1 日到期。一數量，因為高峰期就在轉角處。因此，我們與美國郵政局達成一致，我們將為他們提供這項服務，隨著時間的推移，他們的數量也會增加。事實上，時間已經過去了，我們並沒有等到九月。所以我們的營運模式和數量之間存在不匹配。

But now the volume is all in. So the fourth quarter is going to look a lot different than the third quarter did. And from a performance perspective, Nando you just met with the (inaudible) General and so tell us what he said.

但現在銷量已經全部增加了。從表演的角度來看，南多，您剛剛會見了（聽不清楚）將軍，請告訴我們他說了什麼。

Sure. So as early as yesterday, we meet face-to-face. And yesterday, the purpose was peak planning. So both teams face-to-face in DC. And we're working really well.

當然。所以早在昨天，我們就面對面的見面了。昨天的目的是高峰規劃。兩支球隊將在華盛頓面對面。我們工作得很好。

professionals on both sides that have executed a very difficult plan and made it look very, very simple. Feedback from the Postmaster General himself has been positive. And we see the resources that we've applied are in line with what we had modeled when we have accepted the business and the contract was negotiated with the USPS. So good things ahead for that contract.

雙方的專業人士執行了一個非常困難的計劃，卻使它看起來非常非常簡單。郵政局長本人的回饋是正面的。我們發現，我們應用的資源與我們接受業務並與 USPS 協商合約時所建模的資源一致。這份合約的前景非常好。

And I just can't overemphasize the heavy lift here. And in fact, it was over 50 million cubic feet that we had to take into our network in the third quarter, and there'll be more obviously in the fourth. So job well done by our team and working with the USPS as well.

我怎麼強調這裡的舉重都不過分。事實上，第三季我們必須將超過 5,000 萬立方英尺納入我們的網絡，第四季的情況會更明顯。我們的團隊做得很好，並與美國郵政局合作。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯科姆專業，薩斯奎哈納。

Just to follow up on another piece of the postal service relationship. Can you talk about where you are in negotiating the delivery service agreement that enables SurePost and Sunday delivery with their effort to renegotiate some of those contracts? And maybe along with that, what challenges does that create either on us to serve or Sunday delivery operations, but also what opportunities might that create for your own trucks to deliver more packages in the marketplace in a world where the post office is seeking to retain more upstream business and push customers into that?

只是為了跟進另一個郵政服務關係。您能否談談您在交付服務協議談判中的進展情況，該協議使 SurePost 和周日交付成為可能，並努力重新談判其中一些合約？也許除此之外，這會對我們的服務或週日送貨業務帶來哪些挑戰，而且在郵局尋求保留的世界中，可能會為您自己的卡車在市場上運送更多包裹創造哪些機會更多上游業務並推動客戶進入其中？

Well, thanks for the question. And Matt, why don't you take on this question.

嗯，謝謝你的提問。馬特，你為什麼不回答這個問題呢？

Yes. So first off, so we -- to Nando's point, we had an opportunity to meet with the PMG yesterday. We continually work to find a mutually agreeable agreement for both USPS and UPS. More work to be done, but we are moving very, very quickly. And hopefully, we'll have this to a close in very short order.

是的。首先，就 Nando 的觀點而言，我們昨天有機會與 PMG 會面。我們不斷努力為 USPS 和 UPS 尋找雙方都同意的協議。還有更多工作要做，但我們的進展非常非常快。希望我們能在很短的時間內結束這一切。

And to your question about what challenges and what opportunities, I think it's some and some. And so once we get this contract agreed to, we'll show you what those [sum] and some are, but we're confident we can work through this.

對於你提出的關於挑戰和機會的問題，我認為是一些和一些。因此，一旦我們同意這份合同，我們將向您展示這些[總和]和一些內容，但我們有信心我們可以解決這個問題。

In the exploration, I believe you've said before it's at year-end, can you confirm roughly when we should hear more on that and what the go-forward relationship will be?

在探索中，我相信你在年底前已經說過，你能否大致確認一下我們什麼時候應該聽到更多這方面的消息以及未來的關係會是什麼？

Yes, you should hear something about it in our fourth quarter earnings.

是的，您應該在我們第四季的收益中聽到一些相關內容。

Yes. No impact in the fourth quarter. We'll tell you more about it when we come back with the fourth quarter earnings in January.

是的。第四季沒有影響。當我們在一月份公佈第四季度收益時，我們會告訴你更多相關資訊。

Ari Rosa, Citigroup.

花旗集團的阿里·羅莎。

I was wondering if you could give us a sense of how much excess capacity you see in the network right now? Just trying to understand how you're thinking about planning kind of given the weaker outlook in terms of both customer demand and also industrial production and some of the weakness in the macro. How do you think about kind of matching resources to that lower volume -- and do you think you're carrying excess resources right now?

我想知道您能否讓我們了解一下您現在網路中看到的過剩容量有多少？鑑於客戶需求和工業生產前景均較疲軟，以及宏觀經濟的一些疲軟，我只是想了解您如何考慮規劃。您如何看待如何將資源與較低的數量相符？

So I think our team has done an excellent job of taking capacity out of the market. In fact the 45 million -- 45 operational closures, it's about 1 million ADV per day of capacity that we've taken out of the market, and we see capacity rationalization happening in other parts of the market as well. Clearly, it's peak time. So we're all adding resources to handle the surge in the holiday, but capacity is coming in.

因此，我認為我們的團隊在釋放市場產能方面做得非常出色。事實上，4500 萬個——45 個營運關閉，我們從市場中剔除的產能約為每天 100 萬個 ADV，而且我們看到市場其他部分也在發生產能合理化。顯然，現在正是高峰期。因此，我們都在增加資源來應對假期激增的情況，但容量正在增加。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫研究。

So how much, if any, does the new USPS contract helped the fourth quarter U.S. margin, just with the cost allocation? And then I don't -- Carol, just big picture, right? You're now saying margins in the U.S. in Q4 are going to be -- they'll be slightly positive.

那麼，僅考慮成本分配，新的 USPS 合約對美國第四季的利潤率有多大幫助（如果有的話）？然後我不——卡羅爾，只是大局觀，對吧？您現在說美國第四季的利潤率將略為正值。

We've now lapped the [Teamster] contract. Yields are now turning positive, that's good peak season surcharges. Just big picture, when do we start to see more meaningful margin improvement? Does that start right away in '25 or does that take some more time?

我們現在已經完成了[Teamster]合約。收益率現在轉正，這是很好的旺季附加費。就大局而言，我們什麼時候開始看到更有意義的利潤率改善？是在 25 年立即開始還是需要更多時間？

(inaudible) will address the first part of the question.

（聽不清楚）將解決問題的第一部分。

Sure. Sure. So Scott, thank you for the question. So on the USPS contract, so we put a network in place. It was all part of the plan.

當然。當然。斯科特，謝謝你的提問。因此，根據 USPS 合同，我們建立了一個網絡。這都是計劃的一部分。

There's no incremental impact to domestic in the fourth quarter from the USPS contract. The cost that we -- the cost that Carol referred to was start-up costs associated with getting the (inaudible) stood up that was -- that impacted SCS doesn't impact domestic. And in the fourth quarter, we'll see [SES] go back to about 9% and domestic to around 9.5%. So I don't think that's going to impact us there.

美國郵政合約對第四季國內業務沒有增量影響。我們的成本——卡羅爾提到的成本是與讓（聽不清楚）站起來相關的啟動成本——影響了 SCS，不會影響國內。在第四季度，我們將看到 [SES] 恢復到 9% 左右，國內恢復到 9.5% 左右。所以我認為這不會影響我們那裡。

No. And then in terms of when we're going to see more meaningful margin expansion, let us get through the fourth quarter and then give you our outlook for 2025.

不。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮·摩爾，杰弗里斯。

Great. Thank you. Good morning. I was hoping you could talk a little bit about our domestic RPP trends throughout the quarter. Maybe if you could talk a little bit about how they trended as the months progressed and really what this means for 4Q and your thoughts into 2025, if you have those.

偉大的。謝謝。早安.我希望您能談談整個季度我們國內 RPP 的趨勢。也許您可以談談隨著時間的推移它們的趨勢如何，這對第四季度意味著什麼，以及您對 2025 年的想法（如果您有的話）。

Sure. Thanks for your question, Stephanie. Yes. So we saw positive momentum going from Q2 to Q3 and domestic [rev] per piece. As I mentioned in my earlier remarks, really, when you think about what happened in the base rate in the second quarter, base rate added about 90 basis points of improvement to rev per piece.

當然。謝謝你的提問，史蒂芬妮。是的。因此，我們看到從第二季到第三季以及每件國內[rev]的正面動能。正如我在之前的評論中提到的，實際上，當你考慮第二季基本利率發生的情況時，基本利率使每件轉速提高了約 90 個基點。

In the third quarter, that jumped to [170]. Now as we translate into the fourth quarter, we actually expect rev per piece to inflect positive in the U.S. And that's really driven by a couple of things. Look, we talked about actions that we're going to take around specific customers that were enabled by our architecture of tomorrow and the work that we've been doing in the most have been made to create more sensitive demand channels. SAS and AOP and the modifiers.

在第三季度，這一數字躍升至[170]。現在，當我們進入第四季度時，我們實際上預計美國的每件轉速將出現積極變化，這實際上是由幾個因素推動的。看，我們討論了我們將針對特定客戶採取的行動，這些行動是由我們未來的架構啟用的，而我們一直在做的大部分工作都是為了創建更敏感的需求管道。 SAS 和 AOP 以及修飾符。

And we're leveraging those in order to make adjustments to help drive [rev per piece]. The other thing is what we're doing on the surcharging in the GRI. So we will continue to see lift as we go through the fourth quarter and into '25. So look, it's a positive trajectory on rev per piece, and it's been an area of focus as we move from our year 1 to our Plus 2 strategy.

我們正在利用這些來進行調整，以幫助提高[每個轉速]。另一件事是我們在 GRI 中針對附加費所做的事情。因此，隨著第四季和 25 年的到來，我們將繼續看到成長。所以看，這是一個積極的每件轉速軌跡，也是我們從第一年轉向 Plus 2 策略時關注的領域。

And pricing architecture of tomorrow is really moving from the art to the science of pricing. And one of the elements of this are modifiers we use modifiers that can provide discounts to our customers or modifiers that allow us to increase our price. And I'll just give you a real-life example of what happened in the third quarter to help you understand. In the third quarter, we had a discount modifier that we adjusted basically test the elasticity. We reduced the discount by 25 steps which increased the RPP by 12% or reduced the volume by 26%.

未來的定價架構確實正在從定價藝術轉向定價科學。其中的要素之一是我們使用可以為客戶提供折扣的修飾符或允許我們提高價格的修飾符。我僅舉一個第三季度發生的真實例子來幫助您理解。第三季度，我們有一個折扣修正，我們調整後基本上測試了彈性。我們將折扣減少了 25 個步驟，從而使 RPP 增加了 12%，或使數量減少了 26%。

We liked that trade -- and because it's a modifier, it's not a contract that has to be reopened and renegotiated. We've just adjusted them (inaudible). And this is just one element of pricing architecture of tomorrow that we will use not only in the fourth quarter but in '25 and beyond.

我們喜歡這筆交易——因為它是一種修正，它不是一份必須重新開放和重新談判的合約。我們剛剛調整了它們（聽不清楚）。這只是未來定價架構的一個要素，我們不僅會在第四季而且會在 25 年及以後使用它。

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Imbro from Stephens.

您的下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Daniel Imbro。

This is Joe Enderlin on for Daniel. Just wanted to ask another one actually on revenue per piece. One of your peers noted increased price competition in the market. Just are you seeing any of that today? And then do you think we felt peak trade down pressures yet?

我是丹尼爾的喬恩德林。只是想問另一個人實際上每件的收入。您的一位同行指出市場價格競爭加劇。今天你看到這些了嗎？那麼您認為我們是否已經感受到了貿易下行壓力的頂峰？

So I'll start on the price pressure. Look, we sit in a very price competitive industry, but we think it's very rational, right? And when you look bid for bid and product to product. It is very rational. We know we have to win on capabilities, and that's where we continue to add.

所以我將從價格壓力開始。看，我們處於一個價格競爭非常激烈的行業，但我們認為這是非常理性的，對嗎？當您查看競標和產品之間的競標時。這是非常理性的。我們知道我們必須依靠能力取勝，這就是我們不斷增強的能力。

With every customer every day, it's -- you got to deliver service to do it. It starts with us with service and then we add incremental capabilities like RFID to win where we really want to win those. And I pointed out as Carol mentioned, we've had big enterprise commercial wins through that. We also have seen commercial now grow nearly 1% for the first time this year as we really started to catch that from the contract, that's been a big momentum point. And then specifically, SMB Commercial growing 3.8%.

每天面對每一位客戶，你必須提供服務才能做到這一點。我們從服務開始，然後添加 RFID 等增量功能，以贏得我們真正想要贏得的勝利。我指出，正如卡羅爾所提到的，我們透過這一點贏得了大型企業商業勝利。我們也看到商業今年首次成長近 1%，因為我們真正開始從合約中抓住這一點，這是一個很大的動力點。具體來說，中小企業商業成長了 3.8%。

Those sorts of things allow -- the capabilities that we have allow us to win more and win new in those areas that help drive the rev for piece growth despite a very competitive price environment.

這些事情使我們擁有的能力使我們能夠在這些領域贏得更多並贏得新的勝利，儘管價格環境競爭非常激烈，但有助於推動單件成長的轉速。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

布蘭登·奧格倫斯基，巴克萊銀行。

Congrats on growth for the first time in a couple of years here. Good to see. Carol, I think you mentioned something about enterprise customers. And I know in the past, you talked about glide down. So can you just put that in context as you head into 2025?

恭喜您幾年來首次實現成長。很高興看到。卡羅爾，我想你提到了一些關於企業客戶的事情。我知道過去你有談過下滑。那麼，在進入 2025 年時，您能將這一點放在具體的背景中嗎？

And then just very quickly on Fit to Serve, I didn't get it, but is that going to incrementally deliver in the fourth quarter?

然後很快就“適合服務”，我沒有明白，但這會在第四季度逐步實現嗎？

So first on the customer [glide] down, we have, as you know, been in a glide down arrangement with our largest customer, and they continue to be our largest customer. I think it's fair to say that we have seen them drive a lot of the reduction in our air volume. In fact, if I look at the third quarter performance, 100% of the decline in air volume was down about 6.5%, is it attributable to the largest customers. So they, like many trading down from air to ground and in their case, a little bit of ground up to their own network. But we're (inaudible) with that because it creates opportunity for us to grow in other areas.

因此，首先在客戶方面[下滑]，如您所知，我們一直與我們最大的客戶進行下滑安排，他們仍然是我們最大的客戶。我認為可以公平地說，我們已經看到它們在很大程度上減少了我們的風量。事實上，如果我看第三季的業績，100%的下降，風量下降了大約6.5%，是否歸因於最大的客戶。因此，他們就像許多從空中到地面的交易一樣，在他們的情況下，有一點地面到他們自己的網路。但我們（聽不清楚）同意這一點，因為它為我們在其他領域的發展創造了機會。

And then looking ahead?

然後展望未來？

Yes. And then on the Fit to Serve point, yes, so -- we do expect about $70 million incremental to go to about $350 million to (inaudible) in the fourth quarter. And we've seen a great progress with that program.

是的。然後，在「適合服務」這一點上，是的，我們確實預計第四季度將增加約 7,000 萬美元，達到約 3.5 億美元（聽不清楚）。我們已經看到該計劃取得了巨大進展。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

This is (inaudible) on for Ken Hoexter. You noted in the release that you are (inaudible) scope of the fit to serve initiative, which previously came for a reduction of about 12,000 position. Could you just expand on what that means? Is there -- has that potentially accelerated this quarter? And just any thoughts on how you would expand the scope and what you would target there.

這是 Ken Hoexter 的（聽不清楚）。您在新聞稿中指出，您屬於「適合服務」計畫的（聽不清楚）範圍，該計畫先前旨在削減約 12,000 個職位。您能詳細說明一下這意味著什麼嗎？本季這種情況是否有可能加速？以及關於如何擴大範圍和目標的任何想法。

So you're just asking for a status update on Fit to Serve.

因此，您只是要求了解「適合服務」的狀態更新。

Sure. Yes. On Fit served, as we said, we have pulled forward incremental savings opportunities. We are -- we hit the full run rate that we expected. We will have some incremental benefit as we wrap into the fourth quarter, but we're continuing with it as planned.

當然。是的。正如我們所說，在 Fit 服務上，我們已經提前了增量儲蓄機會。我們達到了預期的滿載運轉率。當我們進入第四季度時，我們將獲得一些增量收益，但我們將按計劃繼續進行。

And to your question, do you have additional opportunities. We are an opportunity-rich company. And as you heard from Nando, we're looking at all opportunities to drive a better experience for our customer and actually higher productivity.

對於你的問題，你還有其他機會嗎？我們是一家機會豐富的公司。正如您從 Nando 那裡聽到的那樣，我們正在尋找一切機會為我們的客戶帶來更好的體驗，並實際提高生產力。

[Greg], we have time for one more question.

[Greg]，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧尚克，摩根士丹利。

So maybe just a follow-up on the holiday side. I think you announced a pretty big step-up in your hiring for the first time in many years. I know it's a compressed earnings peak season. But what's the logic beyond that if you're seeing a little bit of a reduction in customer experience (inaudible) our expectations on volumes here, how do you think of squaring that? And is there like a minimum surcharge bogey you guys need to kind of put extra costs?

所以也許只是假期方面的後續行動。我認為您多年來首次宣布了相當大的招募力度。我知道這是一個壓縮的獲利旺季。但是，如果您發現客戶體驗（聽不清楚）我們對此處數量的期望有所下降，那麼除此之外的邏輯是什麼，您認為如何解決這個問題？你們需要支付額外費用嗎？

So last year, we announced that we were hiring 100,000 for the peak holiday season, and our [ADB] declined 7.4%. This year, we announced that we're hiring 125,000 and our [ABB] will be positive. So it's not out of the realm of (inaudible) reason that we should hire more people this year than we did last year. But this is what you need to know. We will hire what we need for peak regardless of where the volume actually ends up, we're not going to overhire for peak.

所以去年，我們宣佈在假期旺季招募 10 萬人，我們的 [ADB] 下降了 7.4%。今年，我們宣布將招募 125,000 名員工，我們的 [ABB] 將是積極的。因此，我們今年應該比去年僱用更多的人，這並不是超出（聽不清楚）理由的範圍。但這是你需要知道的。無論實際數量最終達到什麼程度，我們都會僱用高峰所需的人員，我們不會在高峰期間過度僱用。

We will hire what we need. And what we've done over time, Ravi, is we've added this amazing capability where within just a few -- less than an hour, just a few minutes, we can actually get a job off out or we can resend (inaudible) the job. So we can flex up or flex down the way we need to. And Nando, would you like to add anything?

我們將僱用我們需要的人。拉維，隨著時間的推移，我們所做的就是我們添加了這種令人驚嘆的功能，在短短幾個小時內，不到一個小時，只需幾分鐘，我們實際上可以找到一份工作，或者我們可以重新發送（聽不清楚） ）的工作。所以我們可以按照需要的方式向上或向下彎曲。 Nando，您想補充什麼嗎？

Yes. I would just say the number also includes a favorable employee mix. So this year, we're adding -- we're going to increase our helper teams with our drivers by about 10%. That's not a small number. So big percentage of our volume will be delivered by helpers, seasonal helpers that can deliver at Christmas time, and we've amped that up and make sure that we've got every position optimized -- and that is the number, as Carol had said, and we're going to deliver a great peak season.

是的。我只想說這個數字還包括有利的員工組合。因此，今年，我們將增加約 10% 的司機助理團隊。這可不是一個小數目。我們的銷量中有很大一部分將由助手交付，季節性助手可以在聖誕節期間交付，我們已經加大了力度，並確保我們已經優化了每個位置- 這就是數字，正如卡羅爾所說的那樣說，我們將提供一個出色的旺季。

Thank you, Greg. This concludes our call. Thank you all for joining, and have a great day.

謝謝你，格雷格。我們的通話到此結束。感謝大家的加入，祝您有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。