聯合包裹運送服務公司 (UPS) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Matthew, and I'll be your facilitator today. I'd like to welcome everyone to the UPS first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫馬修，今天我將擔任你們的主持人。歡迎大家參加 UPS 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. PJ Guido, Investor Relations Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人、投資者關係官 PJ Guido 先生。先生，請您發言。

Good morning, and welcome to the UPS first quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining me today are Carol Tomé, our CEO; Brian Dykes, our CFO; and a few additional members of our executive leadership team. Before we begin, I want to remind you that some of the comments we'll make today are forward-looking statements and address our expectations for the future performance or operating results of our company.

早上好，歡迎參加 UPS 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有我們的執行長 Carol Tomé； Brian Dykes，我們的財務長；以及我們執行領導團隊的其他幾位成員。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們今天發表的一些評論是前瞻性的陳述，涉及我們對公司未來業績或經營業績的期望。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are described in our 2024 Form 10-K and other reports we file with or furnish to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports, when filed, are available on the UPS Investor Relations website and from the SEC. Unless stated otherwise, our discussion refers to adjusted results.

這些聲明受風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性在我們的 2024 年 10-K 表格以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交或提供的其他報告中有所描述。這些報告提交後可在 UPS 投資者關係網站和美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 查閱。除非另有說明，我們的討論是指調整後的結果。

For the first quarter of 2025, GAAP results include a net charge of $83 million or $0.09 per diluted share, comprised of after-tax transformation strategy costs of $44 million and a non-cash after-tax impairment charge of $49 million, primarily related to assets and investment impairments. These charges were partially offset by a $10 million benefit with a partial reversal of an income tax valuation allowance.

2025 年第一季度，GAAP 結果包括 8,300 萬美元的淨費用或每股 0.09 美元，其中包括 4,400 萬美元的稅後轉型策略成本和 4,900 萬美元的非現金稅後減損費用，主要與資產和投資減損有關。這些費用被 1000 萬美元的收益和部分所得稅估價準備的沖銷部分抵消。

A reconciliation of non-GAAP adjusted amounts to GAAP financial results is available in today's webcast materials. These materials are also available on the UPS Investor Relations website. (Operator Instructions)

今天的網路廣播資料中提供了非 GAAP 調整金額與 GAAP 財務結果的對帳表。這些資料也可在 UPS 投資者關係網站上找到。（操作員指示）

And now I'll turn the call over to Carol.

現在我將把電話轉給卡羅爾。

Thank you, PJ, and good morning. In the face of a very dynamic environment, I'm pleased with our first-quarter performance. To begin, I want to thank all UPSers for delivering outstanding service to our customers. I also want to recognize the excellent progress our teams have made in executing the strategies we announced on our last earnings call. There's a lot going on at UPS and in the world.

謝謝你，PJ，早安。面對高度動態的環境，我對我們的第一季業績感到滿意。首先，我要感謝所有 UPS 員工為我們的客戶提供優質的服務。我還要表彰我們的團隊在執行上次收益電話會議上宣布的策略方面所取得的出色進展。UPS 和世界各地都在發生很多事情。

So let's move to our results. In the first quarter, our consolidated revenue was $21.5 billion, a decrease of 0.7% versus last year and in line with our expectations. Consolidated operating profit was $1.8 billion, an increase of 0.9% compared to last year. Consolidated operating margin was 8.2%, up 20 basis points versus last year, and diluted earnings per share were $1.49, up 4.2% from last year. Consolidated operating profit, operating margins, and diluted earnings per share were slightly ahead of our expectations.

讓我們來看看結果。第一季度，我們的綜合營收為215億美元，較去年同期下降0.7%，符合我們的預期。綜合營業利潤為18億美元，較去年同期成長0.9%。綜合營業利益率為 8.2%，比去年同期成長 20 個基點，每股稀釋收益為 1.49 美元，比去年同期成長 4.2%。綜合營業利潤、營業利益率和每股攤薄收益略高於我們的預期。

Of note, our US Domestic segment increased operating profit by $164 million year over year and expanded operating margin by 110 basis points. While our revenue and volume in the first quarter was in line with our expectations, results by month were not.

值得注意的是，我們的美國國內部門的營業利潤年增 1.64 億美元，營業利潤率擴大 110 個基點。雖然我們第一季的營收和銷售符合預期，但月度業績卻不符合。

Starting with the US, while we expected negative ADV growth given our Amazon glide down plan, January's ADV decline was less than expected, marked by positive average daily volume or ADV growth in certain B2B, SMB, and healthcare customers. Then, as we moved into February and March, uncertainties surrounding global trade policies and other matters led to a drop in consumer confidence and muted demand from some enterprise and SMB customers. As a result, the decline in US ADV for the month of February and March was higher than we expected.

首先從美國開始，雖然我們根據亞馬遜下滑計劃預計日均交易量將出現負增長，但 1 月份的日均交易量降幅低於預期，某些 B2B、SMB 和醫療保健客戶的平均每日交易量或日均交易量出現正增長。然後，隨著我們進入二月和三月，圍繞全球貿易政策和其他問題的不確定性導致消費者信心下降，一些企業和中小企業客戶的需求減弱。因此，2月份和3月份美國日均交易量的降幅高於我們的預期。

Looking outside the US, demand for US inbound services surged as customers pull forward inventory purchases ahead of expected tariff changes. In response, we leveraged the flexibility of our global portfolio with the power of our next-gen brokerage technology, which helped our customers avoid border disruptions and kept their supply chains moving. As a result, in the International segment, our US [inbound] (corrected by company after the call) volume increased 9.5% in the first quarter.

放眼美國以外，由於客戶在預期的關稅變化之前提前購買庫存，對美國入境服務的需求激增。作為回應，我們利用全球投資組合的靈活性和下一代經紀技術的強大功能，幫助我們的客戶避免邊境中斷並保持其供應鏈的暢通。因此，在國際領域，我們的美國入境業務量（電話會議後公司進行了更正）在第一季成長了 9.5%。

In January, we announced three strategic actions to drive our business to a more profitable, agile, and differentiated UPS. Let me provide a high-level update on our progress. Let's start with our plan to accelerate the glide down of Amazon's volume. You'll recall that we reached agreement with Amazon to reduce their volume in our network by more than 50% by June of 2026. Note that the volume we are transitioning out is Amazon's fulfillment center outbound volume. This volume is not profitable for us, nor a healthy fit for our network. The Amazon volume we plan to keep is profitable, and it is healthy volume, in other words, volume where we can add value, like returns and seller-fulfilled outbound volume.

今年一月，我們宣布了三項策略性舉措，以推動我們的 UPS 業務朝向更獲利、更靈活、差異化的方向發展。讓我向您詳細介紹一下我們的進展。讓我們從加速亞馬遜銷售下滑的計畫開始。您可能還記得，我們​​與亞馬遜達成協議，到 2026 年 6 月將我們網路中的亞馬遜數量減少 50% 以上。請注意，我們正在轉移的數量是亞馬遜配送中心的出站數量。這個數量對我們來說無利可圖，對我們的網路也不健康。我們計劃保持的亞馬遜交易量是有利可圖的，而且是健康的交易量，換句話說，我們可以增加價值的交易量，例如退貨和賣家履行的出站交易量。

In the first quarter, Amazon's ADV decline ran slightly ahead of plan but is expected to be on plan by the end of the first half of this year. The Amazon glide down plans have been integrated into our Network of the Future initiative. We are executing the largest network reconfiguration in our history. We will optimize the capacity of our network with expected volume levels, as well as increase productivity through additional automation. With this reconfiguration, we will also lessen our dependency on labor, reduce the capital requirements needed to run the network, and will drive structural operating margins and return on invested capital improvements.

今年第一季度，亞馬遜的日均銷售額下降幅度略高於計劃，但預計今年上半年末將恢復到計畫水準。亞馬遜滑翔計劃已納入我們的未來網路計劃。我們正在進行史上最大規模的網路重構。我們將根據預期的容量等級優化網路容量，並透過額外的自動化來提高生產力。透過這種重新配置，我們還將減少對勞動力的依賴，減少運作網路所需的資本要求，並將提高結構性營運利潤率和投資資本回報率。

While this may be the largest network reconfiguration in our history, we've got experience that gives us confidence that we will be able to complete our plans with very little customer disruption and at the right cost to serve.

雖然這可能是我們歷史上最大的網路重構，但我們的經驗讓我們有信心在很少影響客戶的情況下以適當的服務成本完成我們的計劃。

Over the last couple of years, we've demonstrated our ability to manage hours and labor in line with changes in volume, all while staying within the confines of our labor agreement. In 2024, we successfully closed 11 buildings. And the learnings from those closings became the blueprint for our network reconfiguration approach. We are moving very quickly. In this first phase, we will complete 164 operational closures, including 73 building closures, by the end of June, and there's more to come. While our building footprint is changing, our pickup and delivery footprint is not. We remain committed to providing industry-leading reliability to all customers across the country. We'll just do it with fewer buildings.

在過去的幾年裡，我們已經證明了我們有能力根據產量的變化來管理工時和勞動力，同時又不超出我們的勞動協議的範圍。2024年，我們成功關閉了11棟建築。從這些關閉中獲得的經驗成為了我們網路重構方法的藍圖。我們進展非常快。在第一階段，我們將在 6 月底前完成 164 處營運關閉，其中包括 73 處建築關閉，未來還將完成更多關閉。雖然我們的建築足跡正在發生變化，但我們的取貨和送貨足跡卻沒有改變。我們始終致力於為全國所有客戶提供業界領先的可靠性。我們只需減少建築數量即可。

For our larger customers, we are working with them to update their operating plans. And for our SMBs, in the areas where we're closing buildings, UPS will still be accessible and convenient for customer drop-offs and pickups due to our network of 5,300 UPS stores and 29,000 drop boxes and UPS Access Points. 90% of the US population lives within 5 miles of these locations, and about two-thirds of them are open on Sundays for added convenience.

對於我們的大客戶，我們正在與他們合作更新他們的營運計劃。對於我們的中小型企業來說，在我們關閉辦公大樓的地區，由於我們擁有 5,300 家 UPS 商店和 29,000 個投遞箱和 UPS 接入點的網絡，因此客戶仍然可以使用 UPS 並方便地進行投遞和取件。 90% 的美國人口居住在這些地點 5 英里範圍內，其中約三分之二的地點在周日開放，以提供更多便利。

In a moment, Brian will provide more details on our cost out and network reconfiguration progress.

稍後，Brian 將提供有關我們的成本和網路重新配置進度的更多詳細資訊。

Our second strategic action was the insourcing of SurePost final mile delivery. We smoothly absorbed that volume into our network and adjusted operating plans to address the additional stops associated with the final mile. Earlier this month, we replaced the SurePost product with Ground Saver. This is a new and differentiated domestic economy service that balances speed and reliability for our customers while allowing significant operational flexibility for UPS.

我們的第二個策略行動是將 SurePost 最後一哩的遞送業務納入內部採購。我們順利地將該流量吸收到我們的網路中，並調整營運計劃以解決與最後一英里相關的額外停靠點。本月初，我們用 Ground Saver 取代了 SurePost 產品。這是一項全新且差異化的國內經濟服務，它為我們的客戶平衡了速度和可靠性，同時為 UPS 提供了極大的營運靈活性。

The third strategic action we announced was our Efficiency Reimagined initiative, which is designed to deliver $1 billion in savings by improving many of the ways we do business, including the elimination of manual tasks and enhancing our purchasing processes. We've made good progress here. And as planned, we expect to accelerate the benefits beginning in the second quarter.

我們宣布的第三項策略行動是「效率重塑」計劃，該計劃旨在透過改進我們的多種業務方式（包括消除手動任務和增強我們的採購流程）來節省 10 億美元。我們在這裡取得了良好的進展。按照計劃，我們預計從第二季開始加速收益。

Moving to our strategic growth updates. We are focused on improving revenue quality and growing in the best parts of the market like healthcare, international, B2B, and SMB. Last week, we entered into an agreement to acquire and Andlauer Healthcare Group, a move that will bolster our healthcare capabilities in Canada by adding 39 dedicated healthcare facilities across the country, along with cold chain packaging and specialized transportation solutions. The acquisition of Andlauer supports our goal of becoming the number one complex healthcare logistics provider in the world. We expect this acquisition to close in the second half of 2025.

轉向我們的策略成長更新。我們專注於提高收入品質並在醫療保健、國際、B2B 和 SMB 等市場最佳領域實現成長。上週，我們達成了收購安德勞爾醫療集團的協議，此舉將增強我們在加拿大的醫療保健能力，在全國增加 39 個專門的醫療保健設施，並提供冷鏈包裝和專門的運輸解決方案。收購 Andlauer 支持我們實現成為全球第一大綜合醫療保健物流提供者的目標。我們預計此次收購將於 2025 年下半年完成。

Touching on SMBs. In the first quarter, SMBs, including platforms, made up 31.2% of our total US volume. And looking at DAP, our digital access program, in the first quarter, global DAP revenue grew by 24% year over year.

觸及 SMB。第一季度，包括平台在內的中小企業占我們美國總交易量的 31.2%。看看我們的數位接取計畫 DAP，第一季全球 DAP 營收年增 24%。

Finally, during the quarter, we reintroduced UPS Ground with Freight Pricing, which provides exceptional value for shipments weighing more than 150 pounds. This positions us to be the only small package carrier that offers parcel-like pricing for less-than-truckload shipments, which is a true differentiator.

最後，在本季度，我們重新推出了 UPS Ground 貨運定價服務，為重量超過 150 磅的貨物提供卓越的價值。這使我們成為唯一一家為零擔貨運提供類似包裹定價的小型包裹承運商，這是一個真正的差異化因素。

Let's turn to a discussion about tariffs and our approach to managing through what is turning out to be a very complex and ever-changing topic. From an exposure perspective, our US import volume is roughly 400,000 pieces per day, which, from a volume perspective, is less than 2% of our total global ADV. From a revenue perspective, last year, revenue on our China to US trade lanes represented 11% of our total International revenue. And revenue from other trade lanes to the US represented roughly 17% of our total International revenue. Our China to US trade lanes are our most profitable trade lanes.

讓我們來討論一下關稅以及我們應對這個非常複雜且不斷變化的話題的方法。從曝光度角度來看，我們的美國進口量約為每天 40 萬件，從數量角度來看，這不到我們全球日均進口量的 2%。從收入角度來看，去年，我們中國至美國貿易航線的收入占我們國際總收入的11％。其他通往美國的貿易航線的收入約占我們國際總收入的 17%。我們的中國至美國貿易航線是我們最賺錢的貿易航線。

In the US, we've talked with our top 100 customers to understand how their business is being impacted, both directly and indirectly by changes in trade policy. These customers have told us that they are exploring various options to address the tariffs, from absorbing the cost to pushing them into retail prices to asking suppliers to help defray the expense. At this point, it remains an open question as to what path they will choose and what the potential impact could be on consumer demand and our business.

在美國，我們與前 100 名客戶進行了交談，以了解貿易政策變化對他們的業務造成的直接和間接影響。這些客戶告訴我們，他們正在探索解決關稅問題的各種方案，從吸收成本到將其推入零售價格，再到要求供應商幫助分擔費用。目前，他們將選擇什麼道路以及對消費者需求和我們的業務可能產生什麼影響仍是一個懸而未決的問題。

For the rest of the world, through the middle of April, we have interviewed nearly 45,000 international and freight-forwarding customers to ascertain their shipping plans. For small package shippers, over 95% of those customers have told us that they expect to maintain their current business models, while the rest are considering several options, including trade shifts, transportation mode shifts, or exiting a business. Most of these customers are also telling us that they are letting inventory levels sell off, which will lead to lower shipping activity, at least for now. Freight-forwarding customers are telling us that where they can, they are looking to move from air freight to ocean freight.

對於世界其他地區，截至 4 月中旬，我們已採訪了近 45,000 名國際和貨運代理客戶，以確定他們的運輸計劃。對於小包裹托運人，超過 95% 的客戶告訴我們，他們希望維持當前的業務模式，而其餘客戶正在考慮幾種選擇，包括貿易轉變、運輸方式轉變或退出業務。大多數客戶也告訴我們，他們正在減少庫存，這將導致運輸活動減少，至少目前是如此。貨運代理客戶告訴我們，只要條件允許，他們希望從空運轉向海運。

From an internal exposure perspective, we've looked at our purchasing and capital plans to estimate any potential tariff-related cost increases that may come our way. Roughly $2.7 billion of our annual direct purchases are sourced outside of the US, with little exposure to China. From a service perspective, we are focused on making it easier for our customers to do business. Our next-gen brokerage capabilities make it easier for our customers to reclassify goods under harmonized tariff schedule codes and clear customs easily.

從內部風險角度來看，我們研究了我們的採購和資本計劃，以估計可能出現的任何與關稅相關的成本增加。我們每年約有 27 億美元的直接採購來自美國以外，很少涉及中國。從服務角度來看，我們致力於讓客戶更輕鬆地經營業務。我們的下一代經紀能力使我們的客戶能夠更輕鬆地根據協調關稅表代碼對貨物進行重新分類並輕鬆清關。

Our new global checkout product makes it known what customers will pay for duties, taxes, and fees. Using artificial intelligence, Global Checkout enables our customers to display to their customers a guaranteed landed cost, covering all duties, taxes, and fees during online checkout. This eliminates surprise import fees at delivery and provides a much better customer experience. Global Checkout is available in 43 origin countries, and UPS is the only global carrier that offers a guaranteed landed cost that's integrated into shipping and billing technology. Finally, for customers who need it, UPS provides bonded warehousing and foreign trade zone-enabled solutions.

我們的新全球結帳產品可以告知客戶需要支付的關稅、稅金和費用。利用人工智慧，Global Checkout 使我們的客戶能夠向他們的客戶顯示保證的到岸成本，涵蓋線上結帳時的所有關稅、稅金和費用。這消除了交貨時的意外進口費用，並提供了更好的客戶體驗。Global Checkout 可在 43 個原產國/地區使用，UPS 是唯一一家提供整合到運輸和計費技術的保證到岸成本的全球承運商。最後，對於有需要的客戶，UPS提供保稅倉儲和外貿區解決方案。

Moving to our outlook. Given the uncertainty in the market, there is a wide range of possible outcomes. We continue to model different scenarios, but these are just scenarios. The world hasn't been faced with such enormous potential impacts to trade in more than 100 years. So the only thing we're certain of is we don't know which, if any, of our scenarios will play out. But by modeling different scenarios, we'll be able to adjust to rapid shifts in the business.

轉向我們的展望。鑑於市場的不確定性，可能出現多種結果。我們繼續模擬不同的場景，但這些只是場景。一百多年來，世界貿易從未面臨過如此巨大的潛在影響。因此，我們唯一可以確定的是，我們不知道我們的哪些場景（如果有的話）會發生。但透過模擬不同的場景，我們將能夠適應業務的快速變化。

Regarding our expectations for the full year, should market and economic conditions stabilize, to be more in line with the assumptions we used to build our 2025 plan, we would be confident in the full-year outlook we provided in January. Given today's level of uncertainty, however, we are not providing any updates to our consolidated full-year outlook at this time. We think, instead, it's prudent to focus on what we can control and continue to execute against our strategic and financial goals.

關於我們對全年的預期，如果市場和經濟狀況穩定下來，更加符合我們制定 2025 年計劃時的假設，我們對 1 月份提供的全年展望充滿信心。然而，鑑於當今的不確定性程度，我們目前不會對全年綜合展望提供任何更新。相反，我們認為，明智的做法是專注於我們能夠控制的事情，並繼續執行我們的策略和財務目標。

Today, we're providing second-quarter guidance based on April results and our expectations for the balance of the quarter. Once we are through the second quarter, we will hopefully have more clarity about tariffs and trade and the implications for demand dynamics, and we'll provide an update at that point.

今天，我們根據四月份的業績以及對本季剩餘時間的預期，提供第二季的指引。一旦我們度過第二季度，我們希望能夠更清楚地了解關稅和貿易以及對需求動態的影響，屆時我們將提供最新消息。

In the face of uncertainty, there are some knowns. We are confident in our position as a trusted leader in global logistics. And with the agility of our integrated network, our broad reach, our portfolio of services, and our proven trade expertise, we are well positioned to enable our customers to navigate a changing trade environment. Further, the strategic actions we launched in January to reconfigure our network and reduce costs across the business could not be timelier. The environment may be uncertain, but with our actions, we will emerge as an even stronger, more nimble UPS.

面對不確定性，也有一些已知的事。我們對自己作為全球物流領域值得信賴的領導者的地位充滿信心。憑藉我們靈活的綜合網絡、廣泛的覆蓋範圍、豐富的服務組合以及成熟的貿易專業知識，我們有能力幫助客戶應對不斷變化的貿易環境。此外，我們在一月啟動的重新配置網路和降低整個業務成本的策略行動非常及時。環境可能充滿不確定性，但透過我們的行動，我們將成為更強大、更靈活的 UPS。

So with that, thank you for listening. And now I'll turn the call over to Brian.

謝謝大家的聆聽。現在我將把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thank you, Carol, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I'll cover three areas, starting with our first-quarter results, including cash and share owner returns. Then I'll provide more detail on our cost out and network reconfiguration progress as we reduce the volume we deliver for Amazon.

謝謝你，卡羅爾，大家早安。今天上午，我將討論三個方面，首先是我們的首季業績，包括現金和股東回報。然後，我將提供有關我們的成本支出和網路重新配置進度的更多詳細信息，因為我們會減少向亞馬遜交付的數量。

Lastly, I'll touch on tariffs and trade policy changes and comment on our outlook for 2025. Starting with our consolidated performance. In the first quarter, we generated $21.5 billion in revenue, a decline of 0.7% compared to the first quarter of last year. Consolidated operating profit was $1.8 billion, an increase of 0.9% versus the first quarter of 2024. And consolidated operating margin was 8.2%, an increase of 20 basis points compared to the first quarter of last year. Diluted earnings per share was $1.49, up 4.2% from the first quarter of 2024.

最後，我將談到關稅和貿易政策變化，並對我們對 2025 年的展望發表評論。從我們的綜合業績開始。第一季度，我們的營收為 215 億美元，與去年第一季相比下降了 0.7%。綜合營業利潤為 18 億美元，較 2024 年第一季成長 0.9%。綜合營業利益率為8.2%，較去年第一季成長20個基點。每股攤薄收益為 1.49 美元，較 2024 年第一季成長 4.2%。

Now moving to our segment performance. As Carol mentioned, while volume and revenue performance in the quarter were in line with our expectations, our monthly performance was not. In US Domestic, following a strong January relative to our expectations, uncertainty in the market began impacting consumer behavior. Demand shifted down in February, falling further than our expectations and normal shipping patterns and remained at that level in March.

現在轉向我們的細分市場表現。正如卡羅爾所提到的，雖然本季的銷售和收入表現符合我們的預期，但我們的月度表現卻不符合。在美國國內，繼一月表現超出預期的強勁之後，市場不確定性開始影響消費者行為。2 月需求下降，降幅超出了我們的預期和正常的運輸模式，3 月仍保持在該水平。

For the quarter, total US ADV was down 3.5%. Ground average daily volume decreased 2.5% year over year, and total air average daily volume was down 9.6%. Excluding the volume decline from Amazon, total air ADV grew 6.2%, driven by demand from healthcare and high-tech customers.

本季，美國日均交易量總計下降 3.5%。地面日均運輸量較去年同期下降 2.5%，空中日均運輸量下降 9.6%。除去亞馬遜的銷售量下降，受醫療保健和高科技客戶需求的推動，空運日均交易量整體成長了 6.2%。

Within Ground, our new economy product called Ground Saver, which replaced SurePost, had an ADV decline of 8.4%, primarily due to pricing actions we took to grow yields on e-commerce volume. This is the first ADV decline we've seen in this product in five quarters as we have leaned into revenue quality.

在 Ground 領域，我們推出的新經濟產品 Ground Saver 取代了 SurePost，其每日平均交易量下降了 8.4%，這主要是因為我們採取了定價措施來增加電子商務量的收益。由於我們更加重視收入質量，這是我們五個季度以來看到的該產品首次日均價值下降。

For the quarter, B2B average daily volume was up 1.5% compared to last year. Growth was driven by returns, which increased 8.8% year over year. We also saw ADV strength from healthcare and high-tech customers. B2C average daily volume decrease 7% year over year, driven by our managed decline in volume from Amazon, our focus on revenue quality, and some demand softness.

本季度，B2B 日均交易量較去年同期成長 1.5%。成長主要由回報推動，回報年增 8.8%。我們也看到了醫療保健和高科技客戶的 ADV 實力。B2C 日均交易量年減 7%，原因是我們對亞馬遜交易量的控制下降、我們對收入品質的關注以及一些需求疲軟。

In terms of customer mix, we saw strong ADV growth from SMB customers of 4%. In the first quarter, SMBs made up 31.2% of total US volume. This is the highest SMB concentration we've seen in 10 years, and it is driving meaningful change in overall volume and revenue quality.

在客戶結構方面，我們看到中小企業客戶的每日平均價值 (ADV) 成長強勁，達到 4%。第一季度，中小企業占美國總交易量的31.2%。這是我們十年來見過的中小企業集中度最高的一次，它正在推動整體規模和收入品質的重大變化。

Moving to revenue. For the first quarter, US Domestic generated revenue of $14.5 billion, up 1.4% compared to last year, driven by increases in air cargo. In the first quarter, revenue per piece increased 4.5% year over year, which was the strongest revenue per piece growth rate we've seen in eight quarters, and it partially offset declines in volume.

轉向收入。第一季度，受航空貨運量成長的推動，美國國內航空收入達 145 億美元，比去年同期成長 1.4%。第一季度，每件營收年增 4.5%，這是我們八個季度以來最強勁的每件營收成長率，部分抵銷了銷量的下降。

Breaking down the components of the 4.5% revenue per piece improvement. The combination of base rates and package characteristics increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 240 basis points. The net impact of customer mix and product mix increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 170 basis points. Lastly, fuel drove a 40 basis point increase in the revenue per piece growth rate.

將每件產品收入提高 4.5% 的各個組成部分進行分解。基本費率和包裝特性的結合使每件收入的成長率提高了 240 個基點。客戶組合和產品組合的淨影響使每件收入成長率提高了170個基點。最後，燃料推動每件營收成長率增加 40 個基點。

Turning to cost. Total expense increased 0.2%, including an increase in air cargo. We continued to drive efficiency in the quarter as we reduced purchased transportation costs from insourcing 100% of Ground Saver volume for final mile delivery, partially offsetting the increase in delivery costs. And we lowered small package block hours within our air network in response to the changing volume levels. These cost reductions were partially offset by expenses related to challenging weather.

談到成本。總支出增加了 0.2%，其中包括空運費用的增加。本季度，我們繼續提高效率，因為我們將 100% 的 Ground Saver 運輸量用於最後一英里的配送，從而降低了購買運輸成本，部分抵消了配送成本的增加。為了因應不斷變化的運輸量，我們縮短了航空網路內小包裹的運輸時間。這些成本的減少被惡劣天氣相關的費用部分抵消。

In the first quarter, cost per piece increased 3.7%. The US Domestic segment delivered $1 billion in operating profit, a 19.4% increase compared to the first quarter of 2024. Operating margin was 7%, a year-over-year increase of 110 basis points.

第一季度，每件成本上漲3.7%。美國國內部門實現營業利潤 10 億美元，與 2024 年第一季相比成長 19.4%。營業利益率為7%，較去年成長110個基點。

Moving to our International segment. We leveraged the agility of our integrated global network to navigate this period of uncertainty and grew International average daily volume for the second consecutive quarter. Total International ADV increased 7.1%, with all regions growing average daily volume versus last year. International domestic average daily volume increased 4.8% compared to last year, led by Canada.

轉向我們的國際部分。我們利用整合的全球網路的靈活性來度過這段不確定的時期，並連續第二個季度實現國際日均交易量成長。國際日均交易量總計成長 7.1%，所有地區的每日平均交易量均較去年同期成長。其中，以加拿大為首的國際國內日均客運量較去年同期成長了 4.8%。

On the export side, average daily volume increased 9.3% year over year. Asia and Europe delivered double-digit export growth throughout the quarter. And at a country level, 15 of our top 20 export countries grew export ADV.

出口方面，日均出口量較去年同期成長9.3%。亞洲和歐洲本季的出口均實現了兩位數成長。從國家層級來看，我們前 20 個出口國中有 15 個的出口每日平均價值有所成長。

In the first quarter, International revenue was $4.4 billion, up 2.7% from last year, as we expected. Revenue per piece declined year over year due to a stronger US dollar and lower demand-related surcharges. Operating profit in the International segment was $654 million, down 4.1% year over year, due to a mix shift to more economy services in Europe, lower demand-related surcharges, and investments we are making to expand weekend services in Europe. International operating margin in the first quarter was 15%.

第一季度，國際營收為44億美元，比去年成長2.7%，符合我們的預期。由於美元走強以及需求相關附加費下降，每件收入較去年同期下降。國際部門的營業利潤為 6.54 億美元，年減 4.1%，因為歐洲航班組合轉向更多經濟艙服務、需求相關附加費降低以及我們正在投資擴大歐洲的周末服務。第一季國際營業利益率為15%。

Moving to Supply Chain Solutions. In the first quarter, revenue was $2.7 billion. Revenue decreased $471 million, driven by a reduction of $563 million in revenue from Coyote due to our divestiture of this business in 2024. Within Supply Chain Solutions, air and ocean forwarding revenue was flat to last year. Air freight revenue was slightly lower year over year due to a lower volume, which was more than offset by higher market rates in ocean. Core Logistics grew revenue by 5.1%. And UPS Digital, including Roadie and Happy Returns, grew revenue 32.5% year over year.

轉向供應鏈解決方案。第一季營收為27億美元。收入減少 4.71 億美元，原因是由於我們在 2024 年剝離了 Coyote 業務，導致該業務的收入減少了 5.63 億美元。在供應鏈解決方案領域，空運和海運收入與去年持平。由於貨運量下降，空運收入較去年同期略有下降，但海運市場運價上漲抵消了這一下降。核心物流收入成長5.1%。包括 Roadie 和 Happy Returns 在內的 UPS Digital 營收年增了 32.5%。

In the first quarter, Supply Chain Solutions generated operating profit of $98 million. Operating margin was 3.6%, a decline of 320 basis points compared to last year, primarily driven by cost pressure in our Mail Innovations business. This is a postal injection product, and our contract with the USPS expired at the end of 2024. The new rates from the USPS are causing short-term cost pressure, which we expect to address as we make adjustments to that business.

第一季度，供應鏈解決方案部門的營業利潤為 9,800 萬美元。營業利益率為 3.6%，比去年下降 320 個基點，主要受郵件創新業務成本壓力的影響。這是一種郵政注射產品，我們與 USPS 的合約將於 2024 年底到期。美國郵政服務的新費率正在造成短期成本壓力，我們預計在對該業務進行調整時會解決此問題。

Walking through the rest of the income statement, we had $222 million of interest expense. Our other pension income was $37 million, which was higher than we anticipated due to updated expected return on asset assumptions. And our effective tax rate for the first quarter was approximately 22.5%.

查看損益表的其餘部分，我們有 2.22 億美元的利息支出。我們的其他退休金收入為 3700 萬美元，由於更新的資產預期回報率假設，這一收入高於我們的預期。我們第一季的有效稅率約為22.5%。

Turning to cash and share owner returns. In the first quarter, we generated $2.3 billion in cash from operations. Free cash flow for the period was $1.5 billion. Also, in the first quarter, UPS paid $1.3 billion in dividends to shareowners, and we repurchased $1 billion of our shares, completing our share repurchase target for the year.

轉向現金和股東回報。第一季度，我們的經營活動產生了 23 億美元的現金。該期間的自由現金流為 15 億美元。此外，在第一季度，UPS 向股東支付了 13 億美元的股息，我們回購了 10 億美元的股票，完成了今年的股票回購目標。

Now let me provide an update on our cost out and network reconfiguration efforts. As we've discussed, we're reducing the amount of volume we deliver for Amazon by more than 50% by June of 2026. Associated with this volume reduction, we are undertaking the largest network reconfiguration in our history. This effort has been combined with our Network of the Future initiative as both will help drive us to a more efficient network.

現在讓我提供有關我們的成本和網路重新配置工作的最新情況。正如我們所討論的，到 2026 年 6 月，我們將把為亞馬遜配送的貨物量減少 50% 以上。與此相關的是，我們正在進行史上最大規模的網路重構。這項工作與我們的未來網路計劃相結合，因為兩者都將有助於我們建立更有效率的網路。

The first phase of our network reconfiguration includes 164 operational closures, including 73 building closures by the end of June of this year. And there's more to come. These actions will enable us to expand our US Domestic operating margin and increase profitability. Our reconfiguration plan is comprehensive and includes everything from closing buildings, reducing positions, and cutting support costs through efficiency reimagined.

我們的網路重組第一階段包括關閉 164 處營運場所，其中截至今年 6 月底關閉 73 棟建築。未來還會有更多。這些措施將使我們能夠擴大美國國內的營業利潤率並提高獲利能力。我們的重組計劃非常全面，包括關閉建築物、減少職位、透過重新構想效率來削減支援成本等所有內容。

To help you track along with our progress, we've grouped the associated costs into three buckets. First is variable cost, which captures operational hours and flexes down quickly with volumes. Second is semi-variable cost, which is represented by operational positions and will also be adjusted to match volume levels. And third is fixed cost, which includes closing buildings and reducing expense from support functions, both of which have specific completion dates assigned.

為了幫助您追蹤我們的進度，我們將相關成本分為三類。首先是變動成本，它體現的是營運時間，並隨著數量的增加而迅速下降。第二是半變動成本，以營運職位為代表，也將根據產量水準進行調整。第三是固定成本，包括關閉建築物和減少支援功能的費用，這兩項都有具體的完成日期。

Our network reconfiguration and Efficiency Reimagined program is aligned with our anticipated Amazon volume reduction in 2025 and is expected to remove $3.5 billion in expense this year. Splitting the savings between our three cost buckets, approximately 35% of our cost reduction will come from variable costs. About 35% will come from semi-variable, and about 30% will come from savings and fixed costs.

我們的網路重構和效率重塑計畫與我們預期的 2025 年亞馬遜交易量減少相一致，預計今年將減少 35 億美元的開支。將節省下來的資金分配到三個成本類別中，大約 35% 的成本削減將來自可變成本。約 35% 來自半變動成本，約 30% 來自儲蓄和固定成本。

Now let me walk you through some of the details and how progress accelerates through the year, starting with the pace of Amazon's volume decline. In the first quarter, Amazon ADV was down 16% year over year, which was more than we originally planned. Second-quarter Amazon ADV is also anticipated to be down 16%, which is less than we originally planned. And looking at the first and second quarters together, our total expected Amazon decline for the first half of 2025 is on track. Then in the back half of this year, the ADV decline is expected to be approximately 30% in each of the third and fourth quarters.

現在讓我向您介紹一些細節，以及今年進展如何加速，首先是亞馬遜銷售下降的速度。第一季度，亞馬遜日均銷售額年減 16%，這超出了我們最初的預期。預計第二季亞馬遜的日均銷售額也將下降 16%，低於我們最初的計畫。綜合來看第一季和第二季度，我們預計 2025 年上半年亞馬遜的整體下滑趨勢是正常的。那麼在今年下半年，預計第三季和第四季的 ADV 下降幅度將分別約為 30%。

Looking at variable cost,. This year, associated with the Amazon volume decline, we plan to reduce total operational hours by approximately 25 million hours. Our reduction in hours was on track through the first quarter.

從變動成本來看，。今年，由於亞馬遜業務量的下降，我們計劃將總營運時間減少約 2,500 萬小時。我們第一季的工作時間減少計劃正在按計劃進行。

Moving to semi-variable cost,. Our operational reduction target for 2025 is around 20,000 positions. Position changes are not only connected to the buildings we are closing but will also be made across the entire US network. Our planned reductions are in line with the total Amazon volume decline, and our semi-variable cost out efforts were on track through the first quarter. In our fixed cost bucket, we expect to close 73 buildings by the end of June. About two-thirds of the buildings we are closing are in the eastern part of the country, with the remainder in the west.

轉向半變動成本。我們 2025 年的裁員目標是減少約 2 萬個職位。位置變化不僅與我們正在關閉的建築物有關，而且還將涉及整個美國網路。我們的減量計畫與亞馬遜整體銷售量的下降一致，我們在第一季的半變動成本削減工作進展順利。在我們的固定成本預算中，我們預計到 6 月底將關閉 73 棟建築。我們關閉的建築物中約有三分之二位於該國東部，其餘位於西部。

As an engineering driven company, we've developed a detailed checklist for each building closure to ensure that we continue to provide industry-leading service to our customers, assist our employees through these changes, and leverage our network planning tools and other technology to efficiently process volume in our network.

作為一家工程驅動型公司，我們為每次建築關閉制定了詳細的清單，以確保我們繼續為客戶提供行業領先的服務，幫助我們的員工完成這些變化，並利用我們的網路規劃工具和其他技術有效地處理我們網路中的流量。

And lastly, as Carol mentioned, our Efficiency Reimagined initiatives that are redesigning many end-to-end processes, like procurement and customer onboarding, are underway, and we expect to accelerate these savings starting in the second quarter. We are pleased with the progress we made in the first quarter with our cost out and network reconfiguration efforts related to the accelerated glide down of Amazon volume. And we are on track to achieve our 2025 cost reduction target of $3.5 billion.

最後，正如卡羅爾所提到的，我們正在進行「效率重塑」計劃，該計劃正在重新設計許多端到端流程，例如採購和客戶入職，我們預計從第二季開始將加速這些節約。我們對第一季在與亞馬遜交易量加速下滑相關的成本削減和網路重構工作中取得的進展感到滿意。我們預計將實現 2025 年 35 億美元的成本削減目標。

Now turning to guidance for 2025. The macro environment is highly uncertain due to changing trade policy and tariff uncertainty. As a global carrier, the eventual outcomes could result in pressure in some parts of our business and create new opportunities in others. We've modeled several different scenarios for how the balance of the year might play out so that we can quickly pivot, continue supporting our customers, and lean into growth. And as Carol mentioned, we're also closely monitoring our direct exposure related to our purchasing and capital plans.

現在轉向 2025 年的指導。由於貿易政策的變化和關稅的不確定性，宏觀環境具有很大的不確定性。作為一家全球航空公司，最終結果可能會對我們的某些業務造成壓力，同時也為其他業務創造新的機會。我們已經模擬了幾種不同的情境來預測今年的平衡情況，以便我們能夠快速轉變，繼續支持我們的客戶，並實現成長。正如卡羅爾所提到的，我們也在密切監控與我們的採購和資本計畫相關的直接風險。

Today, I'll provide you with our outlook for the second quarter. We are not providing any updates to our consolidated full-year outlook until there's more certainty in the macro environment. Let's start with our assumptions for the second quarter. In our International business, we have factored in announced tariffs and changes to de minimis exemptions. We also expect weakening demand on the China to US trade lane will be partially offset by two factors:

今天，我將向大家介紹我們對第二季的展望。在宏觀環境更加確定之前，我們不會提供任何有關全年綜合展望的更新。讓我們從對第二季的假設開始。在我們的國際業務中，我們已經考慮了已公佈的關稅和最低限度豁免的變化。我們也預計，中美貿易航線需求減弱將被兩個因素部分抵銷：

First is growth on China to non-US lanes, and second is growth from the rest of the world inbound to the US. In our US Domestic business, we have included our expectations for the impact of volume and mix from the current levels of consumer demand. And lastly, we are implementing changes with how we process volume within our Mail Innovations business.

首先是從中國到美國以外航線的成長，其次是從世界其他地區到美國的入境客運量的成長。在我們的美國國內業務中，我們已經包含了對當前消費者需求水準對銷售和產品組合的影響的預期。最後，我們正在對郵件創新業務中處理郵件量的方式進行變革。

In the second quarter, on a consolidated basis, revenue is expected to be approximately $21 billion, and operating margin is expected to be approximately 9.3%. In the US, in the second quarter, we expect ADV to be down about 9% and revenue to be down low single digits compared to last year. SMBs will be disproportionately impacted by the uncertain environment, which will add some pressure to operating margins. We expect the US Domestic operating margin to expand by approximately 30 basis points compared to last year.

第二季度，以合併口徑計算，預計營收約210億美元，預計營業利潤率約9.3%。在美國，我們預計第二季的日均銷售額將比去年同期下降約 9%，營收將下降個位數。中小企業將受到不確定環境的不成比例的影響，這將對營業利潤率帶來一些壓力。我們預計美國國內營業利潤率將比去年擴大約 30 個基點。

Turning to International. We expect revenue to be down approximately 2% to last year and operating margin to be in the mid-teens due to lower demand-related surcharges and trade uncertainty. And in Supply Chain Solutions, in the second quarter, revenue is expected to decline approximately $500 million due to the reduction in revenue associated with Coyote in the same period last year. Operating margin is anticipated to be in the high single digits.

轉向國際。我們預計，由於需求相關附加費降低和貿易不確定性，營收將比去年下降約 2%，營業利潤率將達到十五六個百分點。而在供應鏈解決方案方面，第二季度，由於去年同期與 Coyote 相關的營收減少，預計營收將下降約 5 億美元。預計營業利潤率將達到高個位數。

And finally, in the second quarter, and total below the line, we expect approximately $160 million in expense. And we expect the tax rate to be between 23% and 23.5%.

最後，在第二季度，我們預計總支出約為 1.6 億美元。我們預計稅率在23%至23.5%之間。

In closing, I'll note that this uncertain environment reinforces why we've taken action to reshape our volume mix, pull cost out, and reconfigure our US network. We are focusing on controlling what we can control and executing our strategy to improve the long-term profitability of our US business, drive cash generation, and deliver share owner value.

最後，我要指出的是，這種不確定的環境強化了我們採取行動重塑我們的數量組合、降低成本和重新配置我們的美國網路的原因。我們專注於控制我們能夠控制的事情並執行我們的策略，以提高我們美國業務的長期獲利能力，推動現金產生，並為股東創造價值。

With that, operator, please open the lines for questions.

接線員，請打開熱線來回答問題。

(Operator instructions) Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

（操作員指示）瑞銀的湯姆‧韋德維茲 (Tom Wadewitz)。

Yes, good morning. Thanks for the question. Wanted to see if you could give a sense of, I guess, the cost, how much of the $3.5 billion full-year cost kind of comes through and like how does it build through the year? And then is that like a full offset to the reduction in Amazon revenue or kind of more or less? So maybe just more on that. I don't know if you want to offer a thought on how that flows into '26 as well. Maybe that's asking too much, but if you have kind of a similar number in '26 or more or less, so more on the Amazon cost take out in $3.5 billion would be great. Thank you.

是的，早安。謝謝你的提問。我想看看您是否可以介紹一下成本情況，35 億美元的全年成本中有多少是來自這裡，以及它是如何在整個一年中累積起來的？那麼這是否完全抵消了亞馬遜收入的減少，或或多或少？因此，也許對此還有更多討論。我不知道您是否也想談談這將如何影響 26 年。也許這個要求太高了，但如果 26 年的數字相似或更多或更少，那麼亞馬遜的成本削減量如果能達到 35 億美元就太好了。謝謝。

Sure. Thanks, Tom. And yeah, so on the $3.5 billion, if you think about it in the buckets that we laid out, right, the variable cost is going to come out in line with the Amazon volume, right, as we kind of laid it out. The semi-variable cost is generally going to follow the same pattern.

當然。謝謝，湯姆。是的，對於這 35 億美元，如果你按照我們制定的方案來考慮，那麼變動成本就會與亞馬遜的業務量保持一致，就像我們所製定的那樣。半變動成本通常會遵循相同的模式。

The fixed cost, what we described is we will be closing 73 buildings in the second quarter. So the majority -- there's more fixed costs, about 60% of it is weighted towards the back half. Efficiency Reimagined is also in that and is also about 60% in the back half. So you think across those three buckets, generally, the first two will follow Amazon volume, and the others will be back half weighted.

固定成本，我們所描述的是我們將在第二季關閉 73 棟建築。因此，大部分——固定成本較多，其中約 60% 集中在後半部。Efficiency Reimagined 也在其中，後半部也佔了約 60%。因此，您可以考慮在這三個桶中，一般來說，前兩個桶將跟隨亞馬遜的銷量，而其他桶將佔一半的權重。

And the Amazon volume decline is higher in the back half of the year than it is in the first half.

亞馬遜下半年的銷售下降幅度比上半年更大。

Correct. As we as we laid out, it's about [16%] in the first half and 30% in the second half.

正確的。正如我們所列出的，上半年約為 [16%]，下半年約為 30%。

And looking to 2026?

展望 2026 年？

In 2026, look, we will wrap because remember, in the Amazon glide out, it's over the course of 18 months. So in the first half of 2026, there will be incremental, both variable, semi-variable, and fixed cost reductions that we'll lay out as we get into the back half years. But those will be incremental to the $3.5 billion that's in 2025.

到 2026 年，你看，我們就會結束，因為記住，在亞馬遜的滑行過程中，這是 18 個月的過程。因此，在 2026 年上半年，我們將逐步削減變動成本、半變動成本和固定成本，這些措施將在下半年公佈。但這些金額將逐漸增加，到 2025 年將達到 35 億美元。

So do we think of it as kind of an exact match? Or do you take out more cost than the revenue you lose?

那麼我們是否認為這是一種完全匹配？還是你付出的成本大於損失的收入？

Well, I think, if you look at what we talk about with the revenue and the cost that we're taking out, we are making structural changes to the business to improve the margin. Tom, I think we talked about the revenue that we're losing was non-nutritive to the business, and so we are taking out more cost.

嗯，我認為，如果你看看我們談論的收入和我們正在削減的成本，你會發現我們正在對業務進行結構性改革以提高利潤率。湯姆，我想我們討論過，我們損失的收入對業務來說是無益的，所以我們要削減更多的成本。

The one thing I would add is on Efficiency Reimagined. That's really not tied to the Amazon volume decline. That's about making our business more productive and how does that play out.

我要補充的一點是關於效率的重新構想。這實際上與亞馬遜銷售下滑無關。這是為了讓我們的業務更有成效，以及這會如何發揮作用。

So Efficiency Reimagined is all about making processes more efficient within the business. And so as we do that, we will also be taking out about $500 million this year, rolling to $1 billion into 2026 that is going to be back half weighted in '25 but will be incremental to the piece that's just directly related to the Amazon volume. It is included in the fixed cost bucket that we laid out, but it's a route process redesign around restructuring the business.

因此，效率重塑就是為了讓業務流程更有效率。因此，當我們這樣做的時候，我們今年還將拿出約 5 億美元，到 2026 年將達到 10 億美元，這筆資金將在 2025 年恢復一半的權重，但對於與亞馬遜交易量直接相關的部分將逐漸增加。它包含在我們列出的固定成本範圍中，但它是圍繞業務重組的路線流程重新設計。

Great. Thanks for the time.

偉大的。謝謝你的時間。

Ariel Rosa, Citigroup.

花旗集團的阿里爾·羅莎 (Ariel Rosa)。

Hi. Good morning. Carol, you mentioned this objective of being less dependent on labor going forward. I think there was a headline we saw the other day that you were testing out, robotics and leveraging more warehouse automation. Could you just talk about those efforts and how that fits into the Efficiency Reimagined initiative? What kind of cost savings you expect to realize from that over the longer term? Thanks.

你好。早安.卡羅爾，你提到了未來減少對勞動力的依賴這個目標。我想前幾天我們看到一個標題說你正在測試機器人技術並利用更多的倉庫自動化。您能否談談這些努力以及它們與「重塑效率」計畫有何關聯？從長遠來看，您預計可以實現哪些成本節約？謝謝。

Well, as part of our Network of the Future initiative, we are looking at automating our buildings by automating the sort, but there's much more to automation than just automating the sort. We're also looking at the use of robotics for automatic label application, automatic -- many other automatic opportunities, unloading and loading trailers, as well as how we sort packages in certain of our functions. And maybe I'll turn to Nando for a little more comment on that.

嗯，作為我們未來網路計劃的一部分，我們正在考慮透過自動化分類來實現建築自動化，但自動化不僅僅是自動化分類。我們也正在研究使用機器人技術進行自動標籤應用、自動化——許多其他自動化機會、卸載和裝載拖車，以及如何在某些功能中對包裹進行分類。也許我會向 Nando 尋求更多對此的評論。

Yes, sure. So what you're going to see at the end of this is 400 facilities that are either partially or fully automated. On top of that, we're working ahead of ourselves as new automation technology, the application of AI in certain areas to help us with labor is introduced into these operations, and that allows us to really take cost out of the network, and also the end state is 200 facilities that will be closed in our network.

是的，當然。因此，您最終將看到 400 個部分或完全自動化的設施。除此之外，我們正在努力將新的自動化技術、人工智慧在某些領域的應用引入這些營運中，以幫助我們減少勞動力，這使我們能夠真正降低網路成本，最終目標是關閉網路中的 200 個設施。

And of course, as we work through this, we're creating capacity for ourselves through the productivity improvements. And again, as we look at this, we've developed really good muscle here, and we're moving at a speed that we're all really happy with. But the end result will be a much more efficient operation with less dependency on labor. And as we grow and scale up, that's going to continue to provide benefits for UPS.

當然，當我們努力解決這個問題時，我們會透過提高生產力來創造自己的能力。再說一次，當我們回顧這一點時，我們會發現我們已經發展出了非常好的實力，而且我們正以令我們所有人都滿意的速度前進。但最終的結果將是營運更加高效，對勞動力的依賴減少。隨著我們的成長和規模的擴大，這將繼續為 UPS 帶來利益。

And so that activity, coupled with our Amazon activity, gives us confidence that we'll reach that 12% US operating margin by the end of 2026.

因此，這項活動加上我們在亞馬遜的活動，讓我們有信心在 2026 年底達到 12% 的美國營業利潤率。

That's right. And I would say, as Carol and Nando have articulated, we're not stopping. So while we're drawing down less efficient capacity, we're automating at the same time. We told you in the fourth quarter that 63% of our volume went through automated hubs. That's now at 64%, which is up about 4.5% year over year. And so we're moving towards a more efficient, more scalable network faster.

這是正確的。我想說，正如卡羅爾和南多所說，我們不會停止。因此，當我們減少效率較低的產能時，我們同時也在實現自動化。我們在第四季告訴您，我們的 63% 的貨運量是透過自動化樞紐進行的。目前這一比例已達 64%，年增約 4.5%。因此，我們正在更快地邁向更有效率、更具可擴展性的網路。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. So I just want to understand that the -- of the $3.5 billion, how much has been realized to date in Q1? And then when I look at Q1 margins, domestically improved 110 basis points. I think you said second quarter, only 30 basis points. Is that a function of more macro and getting worse? Or is that -- I guess, why is that -- why are we seeing a deceleration in the margin improvement in Q2 as I would imagine the cost savings are ramping?

嘿，謝謝。早安.所以我只是想了解一下，在這 35 億美元中，第一季到目前為止已經實現了多少？然後，當我查看第一季的利潤率時，國內利潤率提高了 110 個基點。我想你說的是第二季度，只有 30 個基點。這是更宏觀且更糟糕的功能嗎？或者說 — — 我猜，為什麼 — — 為什麼我們在第二季度看到利潤率的成長放緩，而我想像成本節約正在增加？

Sure. So Scott, just to hit on the first point, about $500 million of the $3.5 billion is in Q1. And like I said, that will ramp as both the Amazon volume comes out as well as our initiatives ramp as we go through Q2. There's a couple of things happening in Q2. And the first is we have to, as we outlined, we built into our guide the expectation from our customers of what the announced tariffs will be, right? The net impact of that is that we do see some volume deceleration in both enterprise and SMB. Particularly in SMBs, they do not have the tools to deal with the changes that our that our enterprise customers do. That will put some pressure on RPP and margin.

當然。史考特，就第一點來說，35 億美元中約有 5 億美元是在第一季。正如我所說的那樣，隨著亞馬遜銷量的增加以及我們在第二季度推出的計劃的推進，這一數字將會上升。第二季發生了幾件事。首先，正如我們所概述的，我們必須在指南中考慮到客戶對公佈的關稅的期望，對嗎？其淨影響是，我們確實看到企業和中小企業的交易量有所減速。特別是在中小型企業中，他們沒有工具來應對我們的企業客戶所做的變化。這將對 RPP 和利潤帶來一些壓力。

The second piece I would add is, look, we're closing 7% of our US buildings in the quarter, right? And so we have built in some chaos costs in order to manage the volume and maintain service as we go through that that process.

我要補充的第二點是，你看，我們本季關閉了 7% 的美國建築，對嗎？因此，我們在過程中建立了一些混亂成本，以便管理數量並維護服務。

And maybe just a little bit more color on the SMBs. Many of our SMBs, as we talk to them, are 100% single sourced from China. And this is causing so much uncertainty in the marketplace because the administration has announced, as you know, 145% tariff on China goods starting May 2nd and the elimination of the de minimis exception. So our SMBs who don't have the working capital capabilities to pull forward inventory are saying, well, how are we going to handle this cost increase that's coming our way?

也許只是對 SMB 稍微多一點色彩。據我們了解，許多中小企業的原料都是 100% 從中國進口的。這給市場帶來了很大的不確定性，因為如你所知，政府已經宣布從 5 月 2 日起對中國商品徵收 145% 的關稅，並取消最低限度例外。因此，那些沒有營運資金能力來提前庫存的中小企業會問，好吧，我們該如何處理即將到來的成本增加？

It doesn't mean that they're not trying to look for alternate forms of supply. They're working with original equipment manufacturers trying to move to other countries, but as you can appreciate, the large companies get to take the first phone call, and they're the ones that are willing to work on changing supply chains.

這並不意味著他們沒有嘗試尋找替代的供應形式。他們正在與試圖轉移到其他國家的原始設備製造商合作，但正如您所看到的，大公司會接聽第一個電話，而且他們才是願意致力於改變供應鏈的公司。

So we just want to factor that into our forecast for Q2, understanding candidly there's so much uncertainty around the China tariffs. We know what's been announced. We don't know actually if it will happen. We don't know if it will stick. There are many things we don't know, but we thought it was prudent to factor that into our view.

因此，我們只是想將其納入我們對第二季的預測中，坦率地理解中國關稅存在許多不確定性。我們知道已經宣布了什麼。我們實際上並不知道這是否會發生。我們不知道它是否會堅持下去。有很多事情我們不知道，但我們認為將這些因素考慮到我們的觀點中是明智的。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

Yeah, hi. Realizing the tariff stuff and supply chains are a bit of a moving target right now. Any updates on sort of your secular viewpoint for Domestic and International volume growth, sort of factoring out Amazon now that you're reducing it and maybe contemplating, I don't know, shifts in supply chains moving away from China, rest of the world? I know you've given some thoughts on that at your Investor Day a while back. Any updates, given all the noise that's going on right now? Thank you.

是的，你好。意識到關稅問題和供應鏈現在是一個不斷變化的目標。您對於國內和國際銷售成長的長期觀點有什麼更新嗎？現在您正在減少亞馬遜的銷量，是否考慮將其排除在外，也許正在考慮將供應鏈從中國轉移到世界其他地區？我知道您在不久前的投資者日上對此發表了一些想法。鑑於目前發生的所有騷動，有任何最新消息嗎？謝謝。

Well, Jordan, you're right. It's a very uncertain market, but if we go back to the beginning of the year, the small package industry in the United States was expected to be very low single-digit growing from a volume perspective. And if you look at value, including GRI increases, again, low single-digit. Outside of the US, it's a big addressable market. We cite the market outside the United States as $99 billion, and it was expected to be growing in the mid-single digits, including in that $99 billion is about $18 billion of healthcare, which was expected to grow in the high single digits. And all of those growth projections were as of the beginning of the year.

嗯，喬丹，你說得對。這是一個非常不確定的市場，但如果我們回顧今年年初，從數量角度來看，美國小包裝產業的成長率預計會非常低。如果你看價值，包括 GRI 的成長，同樣是低個位數。在美國以外，這是一個巨大的潛在市場。我們引用的美國以外市場的規模為 990 億美元，預計成長率為中等個位數，其中 990 億美元約為 180 億美元的醫療保健市場，預計成長率為高個位數。所有這些成長預測都是截至今年年初的。

Healthcare continues to be a bit isolated from this. We had good healthcare growth. Healthcare is reflected in all three of our operating segments. We had good healthcare growth in the first quarter. If you look at average daily net revenue, which adjusts for one less operating day, it was up nearly 5% year on year. So we were pleased with that performance.

醫療保健仍然有點與此隔絕。我們的醫療保健事業取得了良好的成長。醫療保健體現在我們全部三個營運部門。第一季我們的醫療保健業務成長良好。如果你看一下平均每日淨收入（根據減少一天的營業日進行調整），你會發現它比去年同期成長了近 5%。所以我們對那場演出很滿意。

And what I'm what I'm happy about from a UPS perspective is because of our presence in over 200 countries and territories around the world, we can move where supply chains move, and they're going to move. We know they're going to move, and we can move where they move. We've got a proof point. If we go back to 2018 when China tariffs were imposed, we saw trade move. China to US declined, but China to the rest of the world increased, and it all leveled out. And our International business actually grew. So because of our integrated network and our presence, we'll be able to manage through this.

從 UPS 的角度來看，令我高興的是，由於我們的業務遍及全球 200 多個國家和地區，我們可以隨著供應鏈的移動而移動，而且供應鏈也會移動。我們知道他們會移動，我們能夠跟隨他們的移動。我們有一個證據。如果我們回顧 2018 年中國徵收關稅時的情況，我們就看到了貿易變動。中國對美國的貿易量下降，但中國對世界其他地區的貿易量增加，整體趨於平穩。我們的國際業務確實成長了。因此，由於我們的綜合網絡和存在，我們將能夠解決這個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧佛農，伯恩斯坦。

Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking the question. So Brian, maybe just to clarify, if we take the $3.5 billion that we're going to earn or the $3.5 billion of cost savings that we're going to get this year, can you just give us an annualized number of what that would look like for 2026?

嘿，早上好，感謝您回答這個問題。那麼布萊恩，也許只是為了澄清一下，如果我們拿出今年將要賺取的 35 億美元或將要節省的 35 億美元成本，你能給我們一個 2026 年的年化數字嗎？

And then my question is really around the Domestic side of the business, with the SurePost insourcing. You guys put a pretty healthy price increase in there. Could you give us a sense for whether you're seeing any book away or any sort of movement away in volume for stuff that you would have wanted to keep in that insourcing or whether those pricing gains are actually sticking in there? Thank you.

然後我的問題實際上是關於 SurePost 內部採購的國內業務方面。你們把價格提高了相當可觀。您能否告訴我們，對於您希望保留在內部採購中的產品，您是否看到任何訂單減少或數量減少，或者這些價格上漲是否真的會持續下去？謝謝。

Yeah. So Dave, on the first point, so the $3.5 billion is an in-year 2025 number. I would expect a similar number as we do a kind of a similar type drawdown in 2026. But we'll clarify that as we go later into the year.

是的。那麼戴夫，關於第一點，35 億美元是 2025 年的數字。我預計會有類似的數字，因為我們在 2026 年也會出現類似的縮減。但我們會在今年晚些時候澄清這一點。

On the Ground Saver volume, so we have seen Ground Saver decline. It's down about 8.5% in the quarter, but I will say the majority of that has been intentional decline with specific customers as we both adjust the cost structure to now an in-source model and the new product, as well as we lean into revenue quality. So there has been some intentional decline of less nutritive business.

就 Ground Saver 的銷量而言，我們看到 Ground Saver 的銷量正在下降。本季下降了約 8.5%，但我要說的是，其中大部分是針對特定客戶的故意下降，因為我們都調整了成本結構，採用現在的內部採購模式和新產品，我們傾向於收入品質。因此，一些營養成分較低的業務已被有意減少。

And we would expect to see that in Q2 as well.

我們預計在第二季也會出現這種情況。

Yeah.

是的。

But you're not seeing any sort of additional churn or turnover from the competition with the post office?

但是您沒有看到與郵局的競爭帶來任何額外的客戶流失或營業額嗎？

We're not.

我們不是。

Okay.

好的。

And maybe just a little color there, that's one reason why we insourced it because of the liability that we provide to our customers. Our on-time delivery was almost 97% in the first quarter.

也許只是有點顏色，這就是我們將其內部化的原因之一，因為我們為客戶提供了責任。我們第一季的準時交貨率接近97%。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯‧韋瑟比。

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. Maybe a question on International. I think you noted the second-quarter mid-teens margins, I guess, also that the China-US lane was the most profitable. Just want to get a sense, is this sort of the right profitability level for the business going forward, assuming things don't change materially on the tariff side with China? Just kind of get a sense of maybe if there's specific items impact in the second quarter. Or is this more of a run rate just given what the trade looks like in the second quarter?

嘿，謝謝。大家早安。也許是有關國際的問題。我想您已經注意到第二季中段的利潤率，我想，中美航線的利潤率也是最高的。只是想了解一下，假設與中國的關稅方面沒有發生重大變化，這種獲利水準是否適合未來的業務發展？只是想了解第二季是否有具體項目的影響。或者這只是考慮到第二季的交易情況而得出的運行率？

Yeah. So in the second quarter, there's a couple moving pieces here because, as Carol mentioned, trade flows are shifting, and that's what we anticipate as well. And I outlined in my prepared remarks how we think about the move in International. We expect China to the US to decline a little less than 25%, but that's going to be offset by material improvements in China to rest the world and rest the world to the US. So there's some shifting trade lanes that we're anticipating in the second-quarter guide that we expect to see.

是的。因此，在第二季度，這裡有幾個變動因素，因為正如卡羅爾所提到的，貿易流正在發生變化，這也是我們預期的。我在準備好的演講中概述了我們對國際措施的看法。我們預計中國對美國的客運量將下降不到 25%，但這將被中國對世界其他地區以及世界其他地區對美國的客運量的實質改善所抵消。因此，我們預計第二季指南中會出現一些貿易路線的轉變。

Now what that means is China to the US is our most profitable trade lane. There will be a little bit of profit headwind. Look, longer term, we expect International to get back to this mid- to high-teens margin as a long-term margin.

這意味著中國到美國是我們最賺錢的貿易航線。獲利方面會有一些阻力。從長遠來看，我們預計國際公司的長期利潤率將回到這個中高水準。

And I think the first-quarter margin was suppressed a bit because of the investments we're making in Europe for weekend delivery. We will lap those investments later in the year, so that will give us margin expansion at that point. We really like the volume that we're seeing as we provide that weekend service for our customers. So this is a good investment that we made.

我認為第一季的利潤率受到一定抑制，因為我們在歐洲對週末送貨進行了投資。我們將在今年稍後完成這些投資，這將使我們的利潤率擴大。我們非常高興看到我們為客戶提供的週末服務量。所以這是我們所做的一項很好的投資。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

Hey, great. So maybe just digging in on the International side, the de minimis impact and kind of the flow through, and then maybe the sensitivity, Carol, you mentioned kind of the postponing of shipments from the small shippers. Is this something you think we're drawing? It sounded like Brian said we're drawing down inventories that we should expect some sort of snapback in once these tariffs are settled. Is that kind of how you're thinking about kind of the pace of goods? Just want to understand because you're giving us 2Q thoughts. You pulled the full year just thinking about how quick we could see that reverse and maybe as policy is set.

嘿，太棒了。因此，也許只是深入研究國際方面，最低限度的影響和流通方式，然後也許是敏感性，卡羅爾，你提到了小型托運人推遲發貨的情況。您認為我們正在畫這個嗎？聽起來布萊恩說我們正在減少庫存，一旦這些關稅得到解決，我們應該期待某種形式的反彈。這就是您對商品速度的看法嗎？只是想了解一下，因為您給了我們 2Q 的想法。你花了一整年的時間思考我們能多快看到這種逆轉，也許隨著政策的製定。

Yeah. So the real point of uncertainty is this China tariff matter, and so we're hoping to have that clearer by the end of the second quarter. The de minimis implications means that, for China imports, they will be charged duties and tariffs for $800 or less. That hadn't been the case before. So we have factored that into our outlook for our SMBs because they could be impacted. We think they will be impacted by this.

是的。因此，真正的不確定性在於中國關稅問題，因此我們希望在第二季末能夠更明確這個問題。最低限度的含義是，對於從中國進口的商品，他們將被徵收 800 美元或以下的關稅。以前情況並非如此。因此，我們在對中小企業的展望中已將此因素考慮在內，因為它們可能會受到影響。我們認為他們會受到此影響。

But in terms of clearing goods across the borders, we are well positioned to do that. In fact, we clear goods without manual intervention about 85% of the time. So we're in great shape to be able to clear these goods if more items are coming through with tariffs identified on them. What else would you want to add to that, Brian?

但在跨境貨物清關方面，我們有能力做到這一點。事實上，我們大約 85% 的時間都是無需人工幹預即可清關貨物。因此，如果有更多商品被查出有關稅，我們就能很好地清關這些貨物。布萊恩，您還想補充什麼？

And I think what you're outlining are some of the scenarios that we've been running. Time is a big factor here on when this gets resolved. The final levels is a big factor here and ultimately, how our customers end up dealing with it from a price or a margin standpoint. And so those are a lot of the things that we're looking at. That's why there's so much uncertainty in the back half because all those will ultimately impact the US consumer, and we're trying to help our customers deal with it.

我認為您概述的正是我們一直在運行的一些場景。時間是決定何時解決這個問題的重要因素。最終水平是一個重要因素，最終，我們的客戶將如何從價格或利潤的角度來處理它。這些都是我們正在關注的事情。這就是為什麼下半年存在如此多的不確定性，因為所有這些最終都會影響美國消費者，我們正在努力幫助我們的客戶應對它。

Well, consumer sentiment is down from where it was at the beginning of the year. The consumer is still pretty healthy. And so to your question about will its inventory levels are being drawn down, will it snap back, will commerce needs to continue, so one would assume that it will come back. It may come back from a different country as importers change their source of origin, but we're prepared to handle that, given our breadth and our presence.

嗯，消費者信心較年初下降。消費者仍然相當健康。所以對於你的問題，它的庫存水準是否會下降，是否會迅速回升，商業是否需要繼續，所以人們會認為它會回升。由於進口商改變其原產地，它可能會從其他國家回來，但考慮到我們的業務範圍和存在，我們已準備好應對這種情況。

I guess, if I can just clarify, maybe what I'm confused at is International seems to be kind of in line with the Street, but US, that's where the change seems to be made. I just want to make sure that's the message you're sending because that's down maybe a bit more 300 basis points more than where expectations were.

我想，如果我可以澄清一下的話，也許我感到困惑的是，國際似乎與華爾街一致，但美國似乎改變了。我只是想確保這是你發出的信息，因為這可能比預期下降了 300 個基點以上。

Yes. So Ken, yes, you're right because in International, remember, as we said, there's going to be some offsetting trade flows here that help the International business balance the China to US trade lane. But ultimately, where a lot of the uncertainty lies is what's the impact to the US customer base.

是的。所以肯，是的，你是對的，因為在國際上，記住，正如我們所說的，這裡會有一些抵消的貿易流動，幫助國際企業平衡中國到美國的貿易航線。但最終，最大的不確定性在於這對美國客戶群會產生什麼影響。

So Kate, maybe you could give some more color on what we mean by these trade shifts, for example, China plus one and what you're seeing with these new countries.

那麼凱特，也許你可以更詳細地解釋我們所說的貿易轉變，例如中國加一以及你對這些新國家所看到的情況。

Yeah, absolutely. So just to bring it to life, the export out of the non-China Hong Kong lanes is up double digits from the remainder of the countries. A lot of that has to do with the investments that the company made three years ago to really unlock the right to win in that space. And then all regions around the world grew the exports, so we are seeing the shift occur.

是的，絕對是如此。具體來說，除中國香港航線外，其他國家的出口量都增加了兩位數。這在很大程度上與該公司三年前為真正贏得該領域的勝利而進行的投資有關。然後世界各地的出口都成長了，所以我們看到了轉變的發生。

Carol mentioned the 44,000 customers that we interviewed on their supply chains. We're helping SMBs try to move their manufacturing sourcing to, for instance, Mexico, so that down the road, they would have sourced more near to the US. But it is the rest of the world is growing. I'll give South Korea as one shout out. We talk about our complex healthcare focus as well as international. It's a great market where they both come together, and it's growing 24% exports, so it shows that commerce keeps going, health keeps going, and we are positioned with our global network to catch it.

卡羅爾提到了我們採訪過的 44,000 名供應鏈客戶。我們正在幫助中小企業嘗試將其製造採購轉移到墨西哥等地，以便將來他們能夠在更靠近美國的地方進行採購。但世界其他地區正在成長。我要向韓國致以最崇高的敬意。我們討論了複雜的醫療保健重點以及國際問題。這是一個兩者融合的偉大市場，出口成長了 24%，這表明商業不斷發展，健康不斷發展，而我們已準備好利用我們的全球網路來抓住這一機會。

So hopefully, that helps, Ken.

希望這對你有幫助，肯。

Yeah, it definitely helps. Appreciate the thought. Thanks, guys.

是的，這確實有幫助。感謝您的想法。謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jason Seidl, TD Cowen.

傑森·塞德爾（Jason Seidl），TD Cowen。

Thank you, operator. Hey, Carol. Hey, Brian and team. Thanks for all the thoughtful data points and feedbacks here that you've provided today. I wanted to focus a little bit on -- you talked about 95% of your customers that they're sort of maintaining their outlook, but we'll sort of draw down inventories for the moment. So it's sort of a two part question. Number one, what does that do to volumes when your customers are drawing down inventories? And number two, how long do you think they have in terms of an inventory drawdown so we could sort of level set expectations?

謝謝您，接線生。嘿，卡羅爾。嘿，布萊恩和他的團隊。感謝您今天在這裡提供的所有深思熟慮的數據點和反饋。我想稍微集中一下——您談到 95% 的客戶都維持他們的預期，但我們暫時會減少庫存。所以這是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。第一，當您的客戶減少庫存時，這會對銷售產生什麼影響？第二，您認為他們還有多長時間可以減少庫存，以便我們能夠設定預期？

Well, it depends on the importer. Some importers were buying ahead 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, and you can imagine that the larger importers, which would be the larger retailers, were doing that 30, 60, 90 days. I don't think it goes much beyond that because there's no capacity to hold the inventory. And when we say 95% have started to change or not change their business model, it means they're not changing how they ship their products to the United States.

嗯，這取決於進口商。有些進口商提前 30 天、60 天、90 天購買，你可以想像，較大的進口商（也就是較大的零售商）會提前 30 天、60 天、90 天購買。我認為它不會超出這個範圍，因為沒有能力容納庫存。當我們說 95% 的公司已經開始改變或不改變他們的商業模式時，這意味著他們沒有改變向美國運送產品的方式。

So that, I think, is encouraging to us that they're not thinking about exiting the business. They're going to stay in the business. They're going to let inventory levels roll down. They're going to hope to have certainty on China, and then they'll decide what they do going forward.

因此，我認為，他們沒有考慮退出該業務，這對我們來說是令人鼓舞的。他們將繼續從事該行業。他們將會讓庫存水準下降。他們希望對中國有把握，然後決定下一步該怎麼做。

And so on a roll down in inventory, that would be put pressure on your volumes, at least in the near term?

那麼庫存下降是否會對你們的銷售造成壓力，至少在短期內是如此？

But again, remember trade lanes are shifting, so that means trade from country to US, they will move to other trade lanes. So as Brian just shared with you, we're not expecting a big difference in our International business in the second quarter.

但再次提醒，請記住貿易航線正在轉變，這意味著從一國到美國的貿易將轉移到其他貿易航線。正如布萊恩剛才與大家分享的那樣，我們預計第二季的國際業務不會有太大變化。

No. Jason, as I mentioned before, so we expect just under 25% decline in China to the US. That's offset by 40% increase in China to the rest of the world, right? And so we're seeing these things shift because manufacturers in China are not slowing down. They're shifting where the goods are going.

不。傑森，正如我之前提到的，我們預計中國對美國的客流量將下降近 25%。這被中國向世界其他地區 40% 的成長所抵消了，對嗎？我們看到這些情況正在發生變化，因為中國製造商並沒有放慢腳步。他們正在改變貨物的運輸方向。

And they're providing incentives to make that happen to the Chinese companies.

他們正在向中國企業提供激勵措施，以實現這一目標。

And Brian, as it shifts to sort of a China plus one, I guess, outlook there, do you need to shift some costs around to handle increased business? Or do you have capacity in some of those other areas?

布萊恩，我想，隨著情況向「中國加一」轉變，您是否需要轉移一些成本來應對業務的成長？或者您在其他一些領域有能力嗎？

So we manage our network in a variable basis like that all the time. That's kind of -- that's come to work at UPS is shifting the assets around the flex where our customers need us to be, and that's part of having a globally integrated network. We can clear it. We can move it. We can deliver it in any country in the world where you need us.

因此，我們始終以這樣的可變方式管理我們的網路。這就是說——UPS 的工作就是將資產靈活地轉移到客戶需要的地方，這是全球整合網路的一部分。我們可以清除它。我們可以移動它。我們可以將其運送到您需要的世界上任何國家。

Right. And as the air volume comes down in the United States, it frees uplift for outside of the United States, right? So the power of the integrated network is really helpful in this ever-changing environment.

正確的。隨著美國國內空氣品質的下降，美國境外的空氣品質也會提升，對嗎？因此，在這個不斷變化的環境中，整合網路的力量確實很有幫助。

Appreciate the color. And thanks for the time as always.

欣賞色彩。一如既往地感謝您抽出時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮摩爾，傑富瑞集團。

Hi. Good morning. Thank you. Actually, maybe a continuation on that last question and conversation, and normally, I would never ask this at the end of April. But maybe if you speak to your customers and they think about peak season, have you had any conversations with how they would look to prepare, especially in the light of kind of what we just discussed and the drawing down of inventory taking a bit of a wait-and-see approach?

你好。早安.謝謝。實際上，也許是最後一個問題和對話的延續，通常我不會在四月底問這個問題。但是，如果您與客戶交談，他們考慮旺季，您是否與他們討論過如何做好準備，特別是考慮到我們剛才討論的情況以及庫存減少採取的觀​​望態度？

But at some point, do we get to the point where there could be a bit of a squeeze here into the summer months as we start to prepare for kind of peak season shipments and what could still be a pretty disrupted supply chain environment? So any color there would be helpful. Thank you.

但在某個時候，當我們開始為旺季運輸做準備時，我們是否會遇到夏季運輸略顯緊張的情況，而供應鏈環境仍然可能相當混亂？所以任何顏色都會有幫助。謝謝。

Yeah, I think your question is actually quite timely because most retailers would have to put orders in now for peak. And so we are starting to talk to our customers to understand what their plans are. Remember, we deal with very large enterprise retailers who have the financial wherewithal to manage through tariffs. Smaller retailers, we've heard anecdotally that some of them are rethinking their peak holiday orders, but those are smaller retailers.

是的，我認為你的問題實際上非常及時，因為大多數零售商現在都必須下訂單以應對高峰。因此，我們開始與客戶交談，以了解他們的計劃。請記住，我們與非常大型的企業零售商打交道，他們擁有透過關稅進行管理的財力。對於規模較小的零售商，我們聽說有些零售商正在重新考慮他們的假期高峰訂單，但這些都是規模較小的零售商。

For us, from an exposure perspective, I think we're in a pretty good place, but we will continue to have those ongoing discussions, given the uncertainty we have with the China tariffs. That's why it will be so helpful to have that resolved, however it gets resolved. Brian, any thoughts?

對我們來說，從曝光度的角度來看，我認為我們處於一個相當不錯的位置，但考慮到我們對中國關稅的不確定性，我們將繼續進行這些持續的討論。這就是為什麼解決這個問題會非常有幫助，不管它是如何解決的。布萊恩，有什麼想法嗎？

And Stephanie, I think, again, this sits on uncertainty and scenarios, right, because there's a scenario where it gets resolved, orders go in. There's one where it gets delayed. Things move from ocean to air, which is good for us, right? And we're able to flex our network to help people fulfill peak orders, right? There's others where it gets pushed even further, and we see supply shock. So we're looking at all those different scenarios so we can move as quickly as we can and pivot the business.

史蒂芬妮，我認為，這又取決於不確定性和情景，對吧，因為有一種情景是，問題得到解決，訂單進入。有一個地方被延遲了。物質從海洋轉移到空氣中，這對我們有好處，對嗎？我們能夠靈活運用我們的網路來幫助人們完成高峰訂單，對嗎？在其他情況下，這種情況會進一步加劇，我們看到供應衝擊。因此，我們正在研究所有不同的情況，以便我們能夠盡快採取行動並調整業務。

Our peak planning has already begun, and right now, it's about scenarios, isn't it, Nando? We're thinking about various scenarios and how we will be prepared to deliver another great peak.

我們的高峰規劃已經開始了，現在，只是在討論場景，不是嗎，南多？我們正在考慮各種情況以及如何準備好迎接另一個偉大的高峰。

Yeah. It actually will work out in the end. When you think about peak season, we put out a lot of variable costs. It's not a cost that goes on forever in terms of hiring helpers, temporary employees. We charter aircraft or lease aircraft during peak season. Those would be considerations we make as we see the volume unfold, whether we need those resources or not.

是的。最終它確實會成功。當您想到旺季時，我們會產生很多變動成本。就僱用助手和臨時員工而言，這並不是一項永遠持續的成本。我們在旺季租用飛機或租賃飛機。無論我們是否需要這些資源，我們都會根據情況的進展做出考慮。

Great. Well, I appreciate the time. Thank you.

偉大的。嗯，我很感謝你抽出時間。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. So maybe just one follow up and then a question on capital allocation. Just on the pivot to the China plus one strategy, how quickly do you think the supply chain can really do that, especially with some of the some of the SMBs? And are you seeing a big offset there like you -- I think Brian mentioned China to the rest of the world, but what about the rest of the world to the US?

嘿，早安。感謝您回答這個問題。因此也許只需要一個後續問題，然後是一個關於資本配置的問題。就轉向「中國加一」策略而言，您認為供應鏈能夠多快做到這一點，尤其是對於一些中小企業而言？您是否看到了巨大的抵消作用——我認為布萊恩提到了中國對世界其他地區的影響，但世界其他地區對美國的影響又如何呢？

And then also for Brian, can you just run us through capital allocation? Priority is maybe the cash cost for restructuring with this plan underway. Thank you.

然後對於 Brian，您能否為我們介紹一下資本配置？在實施該計劃的過程中，優先考慮的可能是重組的現金成本。謝謝。

So rest of the world to US, remember, 17% of our International revenue, 3% of our total revenue. So from an exposure perspective, this is manageable exposure. Kate, what are you seeing the rest of the world to US?

因此，請記住，世界其他地區對美國的國際收入占我們國際收入的 17%，占我們總收入的 3%。因此從曝光角度來看，這是可控制的曝光。凱特，你認為世界其他地方和美國有什麼不同嗎？

Yeah, so we are seeing that we've got the growth out of Europe, for instance, to the US in the exports growing very -- in a nice high-digit, single-digit factor. We're seeing Asia, Vietnam, Thailand also to the US growing exports near double digits. So I would tell you that it's shifting. It's already occurring.

是的，我們看到，從歐洲到美國的出口出現了非常顯著的成長，成長率達到了很高的個位數。我們看到亞洲、越南、泰國對美國的出口也呈現接近兩位數的成長。所以我想告訴你，它正在改變。它已經發生了。

So to your point about the manufacturing and how fast that's Carol's point about there's planning underway. The SMBs are looking at how they could source from manufacturing. The big companies get the first slot, basically, of these manufacturers, and the SMBs are working through where they would, how they would go to near shoring. I love China plus analogy because this is basically the continuation of that but magnified. The world is shifting already, and again, that's double-digit growth that I'm emphasizing is the proof point tied to that.

所以關於你提到的製造過程以及速度，卡羅爾也提到了正在進行的規劃。中小企業正在研究如何從製造業採購。基本上，大公司在這些製造商中佔據了首要位置，而中小企業則在研究如何實現近岸外包。我喜歡中國加類比，因為這基本上是它的延續，但被放大了。世界已經在發生變化，我再次強調，兩位數的成長就是與此相關的證明點。

And I think it's important to remember, rest of world is really a 10% universal tariff. So it's China that's the real uncertainty, I think, facing the economy. It's rest of the world, 10% is a manageable tariff.

我認為需要記住的是，世界其他地區實際上實行的是 10% 的普遍關稅。因此我認為，中國才是經濟面臨的真正不確定性。對於世界其他地區來說，10% 是一個可控的關稅。

That's right. And just to just to put a pin in before I hit on capital structure, Kate mentioned the investments we've made before that really helped facilitate this, and we're continuing to do that with air expansions in Taiwan and continued investment in near shoring. All these things are going to help us manage tariffs not only today but get better as we go into the future. So I think they all set us up for long-term benefit.

這是正確的。在我談到資本結構之前，凱特提到我們之前所做的投資確實有助於實現這一點，我們將繼續這樣做，在台灣進行航空擴張，並繼續投資近岸業務。所有這些措施不僅能幫助我們管理目前的關稅，還能幫助我們在未來更好地管理關稅。所以我認為它們都為我們的長期利益做好了準備。

Hitting, Brian, on your point around capital allocation, no change to our capital allocation policies. So I think we feel very comfortable with where the balance sheet is. We're at 2.26 times debt-to-EBITDA, which is below our [2.5%] target. We closed the year with $5 billion in cash on balance sheet. None of our CP on our $3 billion program is issued, so plenty of liquidity. So we feel very good about cash generation in the year coming, balance sheet strength, and liquidity.

布萊恩，關於你關於資本配置的觀點，我們的資本配置政策沒有改變。所以我認為我們對資產負債表的現況感到非常滿意。我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率為 2.26 倍，低於我們的目標 [2.5%]。截至本財年末，我們的資產負債表上有 50 億美元現金。我們的 30 億美元計劃中的 CP 均未發行，因此流動性充足。因此，我們對來年的現金產生、資產負債表實力和流動性感到非常樂觀。

On the charges associated with the restructuring plan, think about it as about 60% cash, 40% non-cash, but I will tell you, remember, that number is going to continue to be updated as we work through the year. And we work through additional assets that will be taken down and when we roll into the first half of '26, and we take kind of the second tranche out.

關於重組計劃的相關費用，可以認為其中約 60% 為現金，40% 為非現金，但我要告訴您，請記住，隨著我們全年的工作，該數字將繼續更新。我們正在處理將被拆除的額外資產，當我們進入 26 年上半年時，我們將拆除第二批資產。

Matthew, we have time for one more question.

馬修，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Thanks for covering all that.

感謝您報道這一切。

Thank you.

謝謝。

No worries.

不用擔心。

Bruce Chan, Stifel.

布魯斯陳（Bruce Chan），Stifel。

Hey. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for all the helpful color here. Maybe just a broader question, not to be a negative Nancy, but if I start to think about the potential recessionary scenarios, we've had periods of decelerating volumes and uncertain macro to look back to but as far as I'm aware, never one where you've been undertaking such a big network realignment. Does that reduce your flexibility or optionality in terms of responding to lower macro demand, maybe for example, taking down [trans Atlantic] flights or flexing labor down even more within the confines of your labor agreement? Thank you.

嘿。大家早安，感謝大家在這裡提供的所有幫助。也許這只是一個更廣泛的問題，並不是要表現得消極，但如果我開始考慮潛在的經濟衰退情景，我們經歷過交易量減速和宏觀經濟不確定的時期，但據我所知，從來沒有進行過如此大的網絡調整。這是否會降低您在應對較低的宏觀需求方面的靈活性或選擇性，例如，取消[跨大西洋]航班或在勞動協議的範圍內進一步減少勞動力？謝謝。

I actually think we're adding more agility and nimbleness to our business than we ever have. If you think about the volume that we're gliding down from Amazon, 60% of the volume that we're gliding down is not profitable for us, and by gliding that down, we actually give ourselves financial flexibility to address other scenarios that might come our way. So while we have a lot to do to make this happen, we're building in flexibility and agility that we've never had before, being so dependent on that one customer for volume and growth.

我實際上認為我們的業務比以往任何時候都更加敏捷和靈活。如果你考慮一下我們從亞馬遜下滑的銷量，你會發現其中 60% 的下滑對我們來說是無利可圖的，而通過下滑這一數量，我們實際上給了自己財務靈活性來應對可能出現的其他情況。因此，雖然我們還有很多工作要做才能實現這一目標，但我們正在建立前所未有的靈活性和敏捷性，因為我們非常依賴那位客戶來實現銷售和成長。

So we are working through a number of scenarios, aren't we, Brian? We're going as dark as we can and as optimistic as we can, and through all the scenarios, I see nothing but ways that we can manage through. Brian, would you like to add?

所以我們正在研究多種情況，不是嗎，布萊恩？我們正在盡可能地保持黑暗和樂觀，透過所有的場景，我只看到了我們可以應對的方法。布萊恩，你想補充嗎？

That's right. And look, we outlined that we're going to be exiting 164 operations in 73 facilities by the end of June. There's another approximately 50 that we're evaluating after that, and we'll continue to look at that. So I think it's important that, look, we're building a muscle here, and we're building a muscle that's going to allow us to flex the network in a new way that we've done before.

這是正確的。而且，我們曾表示，我們將在 6 月底前退出 73 個設施中的 164 個業務。此後，我們還將評估另外約 50 個，並將繼續關注。所以我認為重要的是，看，我們正在在這裡鍛鍊力量，我們正在鍛鍊力量，這將使我們能夠以一種以前從未有過的新方式來彎曲網路。

The second piece is, I would say, as we as we consolidate to a more automated network, it gives us better efficiency with how we manage the volume to flex both up and down. And so we feel that even in those scenarios where the volume's got to come down even more, we're going to be in a more efficient network, and we've got the ability to go deeper on how we manage the cost in order to offset it.

第二點是，我想說，當我們整合到一個更自動化的網路時，它能讓我們更有效率地管理流量，使其既能上下移動。因此，我們認為，即使在運輸量必須進一步下降的情況下，我們也將擁有一個更有效率的網絡，並且我們有能力更深入地研究如何管理成本以抵消成本。

And this may be one other thought. One reason we're so focused on healthcare, complex healthcare, is it is recessionary proof, and it's going to grow. So this differentiates us from just delivering a sweater in a box. It's complex logistics. It's the future of our company. That's why we're committed to continuing to make inorganic growth acquisitions like the Andlauer announcement, as well as the growth the core business, positioning UPS for the future.

這也許又是另一個想法。我們如此關注醫療保健、複雜醫療保健的一個原因是，它能夠抵禦經濟衰退，而且還會成長。因此，這與僅僅運送盒子裡的毛衣有所不同。這是複雜的物流。這是我們公司的未來。這就是為什麼我們致力於繼續進行無機成長收購（如 Andlauer 公告）以及核心業務的成長，為 UPS 的未來做好準備。

Great, really helpful. Thank you.

太棒了，真的很有幫助。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. I'll now turn the floor back over to your host, Mr. PJ Guido.

謝謝。現在我將把發言權交還給主持人 PJ Guido 先生。

Thank you, Matthew. This concludes our call. Thank you for joining, and have a great day.

謝謝你，馬修。我們的通話到此結束。感謝您的加入，祝您有愉快的一天。