聯合包裹運送服務公司 (UPS) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Greg Alexander, and I will be your facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the UPS fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

早安.我的名字是格雷格亞歷山大 (Greg Alexander)，今天我將擔任您的主持人。歡迎大家參加 UPS 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. PJ Guido, Investor Relations Officer.

現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人、投資者關係官 PJ Guido 先生。

Sir, the floor is yours.

先生，現在請您發言。

Good morning. and welcome to the UPS fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call.

早安.歡迎參加 UPS 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

Joining me today are Carol Tomé, our CEO; Brian Dykes, our CFO; and a few additional members of our executive leadership team.

今天與我一起出席的還有我們的執行長 Carol Tomé； Brian Dykes，我們的財務長；以及我們執行領導團隊的其他幾位成員。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that some of the comments we'll make today are forward-looking statements within the federal securities laws and address our expectations for the future performance or operating results of our company.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們今天發表的一些評論是聯邦證券法中的前瞻性陳述，並涉及我們對公司未來業績或經營業績的期望。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are described in our 2023 Form 10-K and other reports we file with or furnish to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

這些聲明受風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性在我們的 2023 年 10-K 表格以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交或提供的其他報告中有所描述。

These reports, when filed, are available on the UPS Investor Relations website and from the SEC.

這些報告提交後可在 UPS 投資者關係網站和美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 查閱。

Now let me share a reporting change we've made between business segments.

現在讓我分享一下我們在業務部門之間所做的報告變更。

Effective with the fourth quarter of 2024, USPS air cargo results have been moved from Supply Chain Solutions to the US Domestic segment.

從 2024 年第四季開始，USPS 空運業績已從供應鏈解決方案轉移到美國國內部門。

We made this change to align with our management structure and to simplify intercompany allocations and reporting.

我們做出這項改變是為了符合我們的管理結構並簡化公司間分配和報告。

This change is visible in the web schedules that have been posted on the UPS Investor Relations website.

此變更在已發佈於 UPS 投資者關係網站上的網路時間表中可見。

Note that US Domestic revenue per piece and cost per piece metrics are not impacted by this change as USPS transacts with us on a weight basis, not on a per piece basis.

請注意，美國國內每件收入和每件成本指標不受此變化的影響，因為 USPS 按重量而不是按每件與我們進行交易。

Unless stated otherwise, our discussion today refers to non-GAAP adjusted results.

除非另有說明，我們今天的討論是指非 GAAP 調整後的結果。

For the fourth quarter of 2024, GAAP results include a non-cash after-tax mark-to-market pension charge of $506 million.

2024 年第四季度，GAAP 結果包括 5.06 億美元的非現金稅後以市價計價退休金費用。

Total after-tax transformation strategy cost of $73 million, after-tax asset impairment charges of $46 million and an after-tax cost related to the withdrawal from a multiemployer pension plan of $14 million.

轉型策略稅後總成本為 7,300 萬美元，稅後資產減損費用為 4,600 萬美元，以及與從多雇主退休金計畫中提取相關的稅後成本為 1,400 萬美元。

The after-tax total for these items is $639 million or $0.74 per diluted share.

這些項目的稅後總額為 6.39 億美元，或每股稀釋收益 0.74 美元。

Additional details regarding year-end pension charges are included in the appendix of our fourth quarter 2024 earnings presentation that is posted to the UPS Investor Relations website.

有關年終退休金費用的更多詳細資訊包含在我們 2024 年第四季收益報告的附錄中，該報告已發佈在 UPS 投資者關係網站上。

A reconciliation of non-GAAP adjusted amounts to GAAP financial results is available in today's webcast materials.

非 GAAP 調整金額與 GAAP 財務結果的對帳表可在今天的網路廣播資料中查看。

These materials are also available on the UPS Investor Relations website.

這些資料也可在 UPS 投資者關係網站上找到。

(Event Instructions)

(活動須知)

And now, I'll turn the call over to Carol.

現在，我將電話轉給卡羅爾。

Thank you, PJ, and good morning.

謝謝你，PJ，早安。

We have a lot to cover today.

今天我們有很多內容要講。

I'll begin with a review of our fourth quarter and full year results.

我將首先回顧我們第四季和全年的業績。

Then I'll provide an overview of the moves we are taking in 2025 to drive our performance.

然後，我將概述我們在 2025 年為提高業績而採取的舉措。

Brian will wrap up our prepared remarks with more detail about our financial performance and our 2025 outlook, and we'll leave plenty of time for questions.

布萊恩將在我們準備好的演講結束時更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現和 2025 年展望，並且我們將留出充足的時間來回答問題。

But first, let me start by thanking UPSers for their hard work and efforts as we executed another outstanding peak.

但首先，我要感謝 UPS 員工的辛勤工作和努力，讓我們再次創下卓越的業績。

For the seventh year in a row, we were the industry leader in on-time service during peak season, the most important time of the year for our customers.

連續第七年，我們在旺季（對我們客戶來說一年中最重要的時段）的準時服務方面成為行業領導者。

In the face of a compressed holiday period, our people, enabled by the agility of our integrated network, did what they do best, and that's deliver for our customers.

面對緊湊的假期，我們的員工借助我們整合網路的靈活性，做了他們最擅長的事情，那就是為我們的客戶提供服務。

Moving to our results.

轉向我們的結果。

The positive momentum we saw in the third quarter continued into the fourth quarter compared to last year, consolidated fourth quarter revenue increased 1.5% to $25.3 billion.

與去年同期相比，我們在第三季度看到的積極勢頭延續到了第四季度，第四季度綜合收入增長 1.5% 至 253 億美元。

Operating profit was $3.1 billion, an increase of 11.2% from last year, better than we expected, and consolidated operating margin was 12.3%.

營業利益為 31 億美元，比去年增長 11.2%，優於我們的預期，綜合營業利潤率為 12.3%。

Importantly, our US Domestic operating margin was over 10% for the quarter, reflecting improved revenue quality and strong expense control.

重要的是，本季我們美國國內的營業利潤率超過 10%，反映出收入品質的提高和強有力的費用控制。

Looking at the full year, consolidated revenue was $91.1 billion, slightly above last year.

縱觀全年，綜合收入為 911 億美元，略高於去年。

Consolidated operating profit totaled $8.9 billion and consolidated operating margin was 9.8%.

綜合營業利潤總計 89 億美元，綜合營業利益率為 9.8%。

We generated $10.1 billion in cash from operations in 2024 and we returned $5.9 billion to share owners in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

2024 年，我們從營運中創造了 101 億美元的現金，並以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還了 59 億美元。

Before I discuss our plans for 2025, let me share a few operational and financial highlights.

在討論我們的 2025 年計劃之前，讓我分享一些營運和財務亮點。

In 2024, we continued to grow our US SMB penetration and finished the year with SMBs making up 28.9% of our total US volume, an increase of 30 basis points from last year.

2024 年，我們繼續擴大美國中小企業滲透率，年底中小企業占我們美國總銷量的 28.9%，比去年增加了 30 個基點。

DAP, our Digital Access Program, was a big driver of the increase.

我們的數位存取計劃 DAP 是這一增長的主要推動力。

And in 2024, we generated $3.3 billion in global DAP revenue, a 17% increase year-over-year.

2024 年，我們全球 DAP 營收達到 33 億美元，年增 17%。

As we discussed, we are moving from a scanning network to a sensing network through our Smart Package, Smart Facility, RFID initiative.

正如我們所討論的，我們正在透過智慧包裝、智慧設施、RFID 計劃從掃描網路轉向感測網路。

In 2024, we equipped nearly 60,000 US packaged cars with sensors, which represents 66% of our fleet, eliminating 12 million manual scans per day and enhancing package visibility for our customers.

2024 年，我們為近 60,000 輛美國包裹運輸車配備了感測器，占我們車隊的 66%，每天可減少 1,200 萬次人工掃描，並提高客戶的包裹可見度。

Within Network of the Future, in 2024, we accelerated operational closures and completed 9 more than planned, resulting in 49 operational closures, which included permanently closing 11 buildings.

在未來網路領域，2024 年，我們加快了營運關閉速度，比計劃多完成了 9 項，最終關閉了 49 項運營，其中包括永久關閉 11 棟建築。

And we did this while continuing to deliver outstanding customer service.

我們在實現這一目標的同時，繼續提供卓越的客戶服務。

Today, about 63% of our US volume flows through our automated facilities compared to 60% in 2023.

目前，我們在美國約有 63% 的貨物透過自動化設施運輸，而 2023 年這一比例將達到 60%。

Finally, we took actions in our healthcare logistics business to further support our growth plans.

最後，我們在醫療物流業務方面採取了行動，以進一步支持我們的成長計劃。

Earlier this month, we completed the acquisition of Frigo-Trans, a European healthcare logistics company specializing in cold chain.

本月初，我們完成了專門從事冷鏈的歐洲醫療保健物流公司Frigo-Trans的收購。

And in December, we opened two state-of-the-art healthcare cross-dock facilities in Italy and Germany.

12月，我們在義大利和德國開設了兩家最先進的醫療保健交叉轉運設施。

These moves further expand our cold chain capabilities to serve a growing European market.

這些舉措進一步擴大了我們的冷鏈能力，以服務不斷增長的歐洲市場。

Before I talk about 2025, I'd like to take a short look back at the last five years.

在談論 2025 年之前，我想先簡單回顧過去五年。

In June of 2020, in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, we launched our Better not Bigger strategy hinged on three elements: customer first, people-led, innovation-driven.

2020年6月，面對新冠肺炎疫情，我們啟動了「更好而不是更大」策略，該策略以三大要素為基礎：客戶至上、以人為本、創新驅動。

For the first few years, we focused on growing select markets and optimizing financially attractive volume including volume from SMBs and healthcare customers.

最初幾年，我們專注於發展精選市場並優化具有經濟吸引力的交易量，包括來自中小企業和醫療保健客戶的交易量。

Further, we focused on making productivity a virtuous cycle by launching Transformation 2.0, and we began a portfolio optimization program including selling our LTL freight business and making a few strategically important acquisitions.

此外，我們透過啟動轉型2.0，致力於使生產力實現良性循環，並啟動了投資組合優化計劃，包括出售我們的零擔貨運業務和進行一些具有戰略意義的收購。

From 2020 through 2022, we delivered solid financial results in line with our strategy at a time when much of the world was struggling due to the challenges presented by the pandemic.

從 2020 年到 2022 年，在全球大部分地區因疫情帶來的挑戰而陷入困境之際，我們按照策略實現了穩健的財務業績。

In 2023, our financial results faced unexpected challenges due to an unfavorable economic environment and a prolonged labor negotiation with the Teamsters.

2023年，由於不利的經濟環境和與卡車司機工會的長期勞資談判，我們的財務表現面臨意想不到的挑戰。

While the labor negotiation caused volume and earnings disruption, we gained certainty regarding our labor costs for next the several years.

雖然勞資談判導致產量和收益中斷，但我們對未來幾年的勞動成本獲得了確定性。

After wrapping the first year of our new labor contract, in the third quarter of 2024, positive momentum began to build and we returned to volume, revenue and operating profit growth.

在結束我們的新勞動合約的第一年之後，即 2024 年第三季度，積極的勢頭開始增強，我們恢復了銷量、收入和營業利潤的增長。

We continued to drive productivity through similar programs and focused on revenue quality.

我們繼續透過類似的計劃來提高生產力並專注於收入品質。

And we took further actions to optimize our portfolio by selling our truckload brokerage business known as Coyote.

我們還採取了進一步的行動，透過出售名為 Coyote 的整車經紀業務來優化我們的投資組合。

And we entered into agreements to acquire Estafeta, a leading Mexican logistics integrator, and Frigo-Trans.

我們也簽署了協議，收購墨西哥領先的物流整合商Estafeta和Frigo-Trans。

We closed out 2024 with an outstanding peak delivering best-in-class service and financial results ahead of our target.

我們在 2024 年取得了出色的成績，提供了一流的服務和財務業績，提前實現了我們的目標。

But as we wrapped up 2024, it became clear to us that if we didn't address three specific challenges facing us in the U.S., we could lose momentum.

但隨著 2024 年的結束，我們清楚地認識到，如果我們不解決美國面臨的三個具體挑戰，我們可能會失去動力。

The first challenge relates to the dynamics of the U.S. small package market.

第一個挑戰與美國小包裝市場的動態有關。

Today, it's a slow growth market with changing package characteristics.

如今，這是一個成長緩慢的市場，包裝特性也在不斷變化。

The second challenge comes from the concentration of volume and revenue we have with our largest customer.

第二個挑戰來自於我們與最大客戶的銷售和收入集中。

Looking ahead, we project this business if we take no action, will drive diminishing returns.

展望未來，我們預計，如果我們不採取任何行動，這項業務將會導致收益遞減。

The third challenge is the reliance we have had with the USPS for our SurePost product.

第三個挑戰是我們對 USPS SurePost 產品的依賴。

In this case, the USPS is changing its operating model, which we believe puts service at risk.

在這種情況下，美國郵政服務正在改變其營運模式，我們認為這會使服務面臨風險。

So we've taken actions to address all three of these challenges head on, including doubling down on revenue quality and serving the customer segments we want to serve best.

因此，我們採取行動正面應對這三個挑戰，包括加倍提高收入品質和為我們最想服務的客戶群提供服務。

First, we've reached an agreement in principle with our largest customer for a significant reduction in volume, lowering their volume with us by more than 50% by the second half of 2026.

首先，我們已與最大的客戶達成原則協議，大幅減少產量，到 2026 年下半年將其與我們的產量減少 50% 以上。

With this, we will “right-size” our network and retain the volume that is nutritive for us and for our customer.

透過這種方式，我們將「適當調整」我們的網路規模，並保留對我們和我們的客戶都有益的數量。

Second, effective this year, on January 1, we no longer use USPS for our SurePost product.

其次，從今年 1 月 1 日起，我們的 SurePost 產品將不再使用 USPS。

Service is a fundamental part of our value proposition.

服務是我們價值主張的基本組成部分。

And by in-sourcing this product, we can be certain we deliver great service with no material impact to our financial performance.

透過內部採購該產品，我們可以確保提供優質的服務，並且不會對我們的財務表現產生重大影響。

In connection with these changes, while I'm incredibly proud of the productivity actions taken by our leaders, we've realized we're not done.

結合這些變化，雖然我對我們的領導者所採取的生產力行動感到無比自豪，但我們意識到我們還沒有完成。

We are reconfiguring our U.S. network and have launched multiyear initiatives we're calling “Efficiency Reimagined”, which tackle our processes from end to end, from peak hiring practices to processing payments and more.

我們正在重新配置我們的美國網絡，並啟動了名為「重塑效率」的多年計劃，該計劃將從頭到尾解決我們的流程，從高峰招聘實踐到處理付款等等。

Efficiency Reimagined should drive approximately $1 billion in savings.

效率重塑將帶來約 10 億美元的節省。

These significant business and operational changes, coupled with the foundational changes that we've already made, will put us further down the path to becoming a more profitable, agile and differentiated UPS that is growing in the best parts of the market namely healthcare, B2B, SMB and international.

這些重大的業務和營運變革，加上我們已經進行的基礎變革，將使我們進一步走向更盈利、更敏捷、差異化的 UPS，並在醫療保健、B2B 等市場的最佳領域中實現增長。中小企業和國際。

We've got some work to do to make this all happen, but there's no better team than the UPS team.

為了實現這一切，我們還有很多工作要做，但沒有比 UPS 團隊更好的了。

We will deliver.

我們會兌現。

As Brian will detail, in 2025, these actions are expected to result in expanded operating margins and an improvement in return on invested capital.

正如 Brian 所詳細說明的，到 2025 年，這些措施預計將擴大營業利潤率並提高投資資本回報率。

And by taking these actions, we expect by the fourth quarter of 2026 to have a U.S. Domestic operating margin of at least 12%.

透過採取這些行動，我們預計到 2026 年第四季美國國內營業利潤率將達到至少 12%。

With that, thank you for listening.

謝謝大家的聆聽。

And I'll now turn the call over to Brian.

現在我將電話轉給布萊恩。

Thank you, Carol, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，卡羅爾，大家早安。

Our financial performance in the fourth quarter was better than we expected due to our focus on revenue quality and excellent cost management.

由於我們注重收入品質和出色的成本管理，我們第四季度的財務表現優於預期。

The positive momentum that we began in the third quarter continued throughout our busiest time of the year.

我們從第三季開始的積極勢頭一直延續到一年中最忙碌的時刻。

This morning, I'll cover four areas.

今天上午，我將講四個面向。

Starting with our fourth quarter results, followed by a review of our full year 2024 results, including cash and shareowner returns.

從我們的第四季業績開始，然後回顧我們的 2024 年全年業績，包括現金和股東回報。

Then I'll provide more detail on the business and operational changes we are making.

然後我將提供有關我們正在進行的業務和營運變革的更多細節。

And I'll close with our expectations for the market and our financial outlook for 2025.

最後，我想談談我們對市場的期望以及 2025 年的財務展望。

Starting with our consolidated performance.

從我們的綜合業績開始。

In the fourth quarter, we delivered revenue and operating profit growth and margin expansion.

第四季度，我們實現了收入和營業利潤成長以及利潤率擴大。

This is a continuation of the momentum that we showed in the third quarter and the first time in three years that we've shown growth in the fourth quarter on all three of these financial metrics.

這是我們在第三季展現出的勢頭的延續，也是三年來我們首次在第四季這三個財務指標都實現成長。

In the fourth quarter, we generated $25.3 billion in consolidated revenue, an increase of 1.5% compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

第四季度，我們的綜合營收為 253 億美元，較去年第四季成長 1.5%。

Consolidated operating profit was $3.1 billion, an increase of 11.2% versus the fourth quarter of 2023.

綜合營業利潤為 31 億美元，較 2023 年第四季成長 11.2%。

And consolidated operating margin was 12.3%, an increase of 110 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

綜合營業利益率為12.3%，較去年第四季增加110個基點。

Diluted earnings per share was $2.75, up 11.3% from the fourth quarter of 2023.

每股攤薄收益為 2.75 美元，較 2023 年第四季成長 11.3%。

Now moving to our segment performance.

現在轉向我們的分部表現。

US Domestic delivered strong fourth quarter results, driven by gains in revenue quality and outstanding cost management.

得益於收入品質的提高和出色的成本管理，美國國內業務第四季度業績表現強勁。

During the compressed 2024 peak season, our average on-time service led the industry by 470 basis points over our closest competitor, which drove high demand for our services, allowing us to continue winning new customers throughout peak.

在壓縮的 2024 年旺季期間，我們的平均準時服務領先行業 470 個基點，比我們最接近的競爭對手領先，這推動了對我們服務的高需求，使我們能夠在整個旺季繼續贏得新客戶。

For the quarter, US average daily volume, or ADV, was flat to last year.

本季度，美國日均交易量（ADV）與去年持平。

Ground average daily volume increased 2.1% year-over-year, while total air average daily volume was down 12.9%.

地面平均日運輸量年增 2.1%，而航空平均日運輸量下降 12.9%。

Excluding the volume decline from our largest customer, total air ADV grew driven by demand from healthcare and high-tech customers.

除去我們最大客戶的銷售下降，整體航空運輸日均銷售成長主要是受到醫療保健和高科技客戶需求的推動。

Within ground, SurePost ADV, as a percentage of total ADV, increased slightly compared to the third quarter of 2024.

在地面方面，SurePost ADV 佔總 ADV 的百分比與 2024 年第三季相比略有增加。

Through the power of our matching algorithm, we increased SurePost redirects by 660 basis points sequentially from the third quarter, which resulted in half of the SurePost volume being delivered by UPS drivers.

透過我們配對演算法的強大功能，我們從第三季開始將 SurePost 重定向量連續增加了 660 個基點，這使得一半的 SurePost 郵件量由 UPS 司機遞送。

For the quarter, total B2B average daily volume was down 1% year-over-year.

本季度，B2B 總日均交易量較去年同期下降 1%。

However, we saw B2B growth from healthcare customers, including healthcare SMBs.

然而，我們看到醫療保健客戶（包括醫療保健中小企業）的 B2B 成長。

On the B2C side, average daily volume was up slightly year-over-year and made up 64.7% of our volume.

在B2C方面，每日平均交易量較去年同期略有成長，占我們交易量的64.7%。

In terms of customer mix, we saw strong ADV growth from SMB customers, which grew 4.5% in the fourth quarter, driven by double-digit growth in December.

在客戶結構方面，我們看到中小企業客戶的日均交易量增長強勁，第四季度增長了 4.5%，這得益於 12 月份的兩位數增長。

In the fourth quarter, SMBs made up 27.8% of total U.S. volume.

第四季度，中小企業占美國總出口量的27.8%。

This was the highest fourth quarter concentration we've seen in 10 years.

這是我們十年來見過的第四季最高集中度。

For the quarter, U.S. Domestic generated revenue of $17.3 billion, up 2.2% compared to last year, due to the strength of small package in December and increases in air cargo.

本季度，美國國內航空收入為 173 億美元，較去年同期增長 2.2%，這得益於 12 月份小包裹業務的強勁增長以及空運貨物的增加。

In the fourth quarter, the revenue per piece growth rate flipped positive for the first time this year and was up 2.4% year-over-year, which was a sequential improvement of 460 basis points from the third quarter of this year.

第四季度，每件營收成長率今年首度轉為正值，年增2.4%，比今年第三季較上季提高460個基點。

Breaking down the components of the 2.4% revenue per piece improvement, base rates increased the revenue per piece growth rate around 250 basis points.

將每件收入成長 2.4% 的各個組成部分分解開來，基準利率使每件收入成長率提高了約 250 個基點。

Strong keep rates on our holiday demand surcharge increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 110 basis points.

強勁的假日需求附加費維持率使每件收入成長率提高了 110 個基點。

The net impact of customer mix combined with product mix and lighter weights decreased the revenue per piece growth rate by 80 basis points.

客戶結構加上產品結構和重量減輕的淨影響導致每件收入成長率降低了 80 個基點。

Lastly, fuel drove a 40 basis points decline in the revenue per piece growth rate.

最後，燃料導致每件收入成長率下降了40個基點。

Turning to cost.

談到成本。

Total expense increased 1.3%.

總支出增加了1.3%。

Since we lapped the first year of our labor contract at the end of July, this was the first full quarter at a lower contractual union wage growth rate.

由於我們的勞動合約第一年已於七月底結束，因此這是第一個合約工會薪資成長率較低的完整季度。

In fact, the average increase over the prior four quarters was 10.5%.

事實上，前四個季度的平均增幅為 10.5%。

In the fourth quarter of this year, union wage rates increased by only 3%.

今年第四季度，工會薪資率僅上漲了3%。

Through our Network of the Future initiative, we exceeded our initial target by completing 49 operational closures this year, including 11 buildings.

透過我們的未來網路計劃，我們今年完成了 49 項營運關閉，包括 11 棟建築，超額完成了最初的目標。

By leveraging our technology and increasing automation, we processed and delivered the same amount of volume in the fourth quarter as last year, but we did it with 3 million fewer hours, while delivering excellent service.

透過利用我們的技術和提高自動化程度，我們在第四季度處理和交付了與去年相同的數量，但我們減少了 300 萬小時，同時提供了優質的服務。

We lowered small package block hours within our air network in response to changing volume levels.

為了因應運量變化，我們縮短了航空網路內小包裹的運輸時間。

Purchased transportation and other expenses declined as we insourced 50% of SurePost volume during the fourth quarter, and we tightly manage rental equipment through peak.

由於我們在第四季度將 50% 的 SurePost 業務量外包出去，並且在高峰期嚴格管理租賃設備，因此購買運輸和其他費用有所下降。

Lastly, our safety performance was better than we expected and drove a benefit in casualty expense.

最後，我們的安全表現優於預期，並帶來了傷亡費用的收益。

Looking at cost per piece, throughout the fourth quarter and the peak period, we leveraged technology and our proven practices to hold the increase to just 0.9%.

從單件成本來看，在整個第四季和高峰期，我們利用技術和成熟的實踐將增幅控制在僅 0.9%。

The US Domestic segment delivered $1.8 billion in operating profit, an 11% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, and the operating margin was 10.1%, a year-over-year increase of 80 basis points.

美國國內部門實現 18 億美元的營業利潤，比 2023 年第四季成長 11%，營業利潤率為 10.1%，較去年同期成長 80 個基點。

Moving to our International segment.

轉向我們的國際部門。

For the second quarter in a row, our International business grew revenue and operating profit and expanded operating margin.

我們的國際業務連續第二個季度實現收入和營業利潤的成長，並擴大了營業利潤率。

Total International average daily volume growth flipped positive for the first time in three years and was up 8.8% year-over-year.

國際貨運日均貨運量三年來首次轉正，較去年同期成長 8.8%。

International domestic average daily volume increased 5.8% compared to last year, driven by strong performance in Canada.

受加拿大強勁表現的推動，國際國內日均客運量較去年同期成長了 5.8%。

And on the export side, average daily volume increased 11.7% year-over-year with all regions delivering ADV growth.

出口方面，日均出口量年增11.7%，所有地區均實現每日均出口量成長。

Asia export average daily volume was up 15.4%, delivering growth for the third consecutive quarter.

亞洲出口日均量成長15.4%，連續第三個季度成長。

And at the country level, 17 of our top 20 export countries grew export ADV, led by Mexico and Germany.

從國家層級來看，我們前 20 個出口國中有 17 個實現了出口日均值成長，其中墨西哥和德國位居前列。

And in Germany, which is our largest export market, export average daily volume increased 8.6% compared to last year.

其中，作為我們最大出口市場德國，每日均出口量較去年同期成長8.6%。

In the fourth quarter, International revenue was $4.9 billion, up 6.9% from last year, with all regions growing revenue year-over-year.

第四季度，國際營收為49億美元，較去年同期成長6.9%，所有地區營收均較去年同期成長。

International generated positive operating leverage driven by our ongoing network optimization and cost management efforts.

在我們持續的網路優化和成本管理努力的推動下，國際業務產生了積極的經營槓桿。

Operating profit in the International segment was $1.1 billion, an increase of 18.1% year-over-year.

國際部門營業利潤為11億美元，較去年同期成長18.1%。

Operating margin in the fourth quarter was 21.6%, an increase of 210 basis points from a year ago.

第四季營業利益率為21.6%，比去年同期增加210個基點。

Moving to Supply Chain Solutions.

轉向供應鏈解決方案。

In the fourth quarter, revenue was $3.1 billion.

第四季營收為31億美元。

Revenue decreased $306 million, with the reduction impacted by $588 million in revenue from Coyote in the 2023 period.

收入減少了 3.06 億美元，其中 2023 年 Coyote 收入的 5.88 億美元受到影響。

Revenue within our forwarding and logistics businesses increased $282 million.

我們的貨運和物流業務收入增加了 2.82 億美元。

Looking at the key drivers, air and ocean forwarding revenue was up 10.3% led by continued strong market demand out of Asia.

從主要驅動因素來看，由於亞洲市場需求持續強勁，空運和海運收入成長了 10.3%。

And logistics revenue grew by 16.2%.

其中，物流收入成長16.2%。

In the fourth quarter, Supply Chain Solutions generated operating profit of $284 million, down $24 million year-over-year, which included an impact of $13.5 million of operating profit from Coyote in the same period in 2023.

第四季度，供應鏈解決方案實現營業利潤2.84億美元，年減2,400萬美元，其中包括2023年同期Coyote的1,350萬美元營業利潤的影響。

Operating margin in the fourth quarter was 9.3%, an increase of 20 basis points compared to last year.

第四季營業利益率為9.3%，較去年同期增加20個基點。

Walking through the rest of the income statement, we had $229 million of interest expense.

查看損益表的其餘部分，我們有 2.29 億美元的利息支出。

Our pension income was $67 million, and our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was approximately 20.5%, lower than our expectations due to discrete items.

我們的退休金收入為 6,700 萬美元，第四季度的有效稅率約為 20.5%，由於單一項目的原因，低於我們的預期。

Now let me comment on our full year 2024 results.

現在，讓我評論一下我們 2024 年全年的業績。

For the full year 2024, revenue was $91.1 billion, a slight increase over 2023.

2024 年全年營收為 911 億美元，較 2023 年略有增加。

We delivered operating profit of $8.9 billion and a consolidated operating margin of 9.8%.

我們實現了 89 億美元的營業利潤，綜合營業利益率為 9.8%。

We generated $10.1 billion in cash from operations and continued to follow our capital allocation priorities.

我們從營運中產生了 101 億美元的現金，並繼續遵循我們的資本配置重點。

We invested $3.9 billion in CapEx.We distributed $5.4 billion in dividends.

我們在資本支出上投資了 39 億美元。

We repaid $3.8 billion in debt that matured during the year.

我們償還了年內到期的 38 億美元債務。

And at the end of the year, our debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.25 turns.

截至年底，我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率為 2.25 倍。

Lastly, we completed $500 million in share buybacks in 2024.

最後，我們在 2024 年完成了 5 億美元的股票回購。

And in the segments for the full year, the U.S. Domestic operating profit was $4.5 billion and operating margin was 7.5%.

而全年各部門中，美國國內營業利潤為45億美元，營業利益率為7.5%。

The International segment generated $3.4 billion in operating profit and operating margin was 18.7%.

國際部門創造了 34 億美元的營業利潤，營業利潤率為 18.7%。

And Supply Chain Solutions delivered operating profit of $1 billion and operating margin was 8%, which brings us to 2025.

供應鏈解決方案實現營業利潤 10 億美元，營業利潤率為 8%，這將使我們在 2025 年實現營業利潤。

As Carol described, we are taking a set of strategic actions to address the challenges facing our U.S. business head on.

正如卡羅爾所描述的，我們正在採取一系列策略行動來應對美國業務面臨的挑戰。

Execution is already well underway, and these actions together will create a more agile and profitable UPS.

執行工作已經在順利進行中，這些行動將共同打造一個更有彈性、更有利潤的 UPS。

Let me provide more detail on what we're doing.

讓我更詳細地介紹一下我們正在做的事情。

I'll start with the agreement in principle we've reached with our largest customer to significantly reduce the volume we deliver for them.

首先我想說一下我們與最大客戶達成的原則協議，該協議將大幅減少我們為其交付的數量。

The accelerated decline has already begun and will step up meaningfully so that by the second half of 2026, their volume will be down by more than 50% of what it was at the beginning of the year.

加速下降趨勢已經開始，並將顯著加劇，到 2026 年下半年，其產量將比年初下降 50% 以上。

The speed of the glide down is 5x faster than our initial glide down efforts between 2021 and 2024.

這次滑翔速度比我們在 2021 年至 2024 年期間的初始滑翔速度快 5 倍。

The result of this change will be lower overall volume levels, but an improved customer mix at a significantly higher revenue per piece.

這項變化的結果是整體銷售水準會下降，但客戶結構會得到改善，每件產品的收入會顯著增加。

We are deliberately shifting our business and increasing our focus on growing higher-yielding volume and value share.

我們正在刻意轉變業務，更加重視提高收益更高的銷售和價值份額。

Lower overall volume levels from this customer will lead to lower revenue dollars in the near term.

該客戶整體銷售量較低將導致短期收入減少。

However, we expect to grow revenue per piece through shifting our customer mix and by leveraging our architecture of tomorrow pricing technology.

然而，我們希望透過轉變客戶結構和利用未來定價技術架構來增加每件產品的收入。

This will enable us to continue the strong base rate improvements in 2025 that we delivered from our enterprise and SMB customers in the second half of 2024.

這將使我們能夠在 2025 年繼續保持我們在 2024 年下半年為企業和 SMB 客戶帶來的強勁基準利率提升。

Additionally, we will double down on growing volume and revenue in the best parts of the market for us, including SMB, healthcare and B2B.

此外，我們將加倍努力提高市場最佳領域的銷售和收入，包括中小企業、醫療保健和 B2B。

And in terms of SMBs, this year, we expect to take the SMB percent of our US volume to 32%, and the momentum will continue for the longer term.

就中小企業而言，我們預計今年中小企業在美國業務總量中的佔比將達到 32%，而且這一勢頭還將長期持續下去。

Now looking at costs.

現在看看成本。

As we bring volume down, we will not only reduce the hours of miles associated with this volume, we will be able to take out fixed costs to match our capacity to our new expected volume levels.

隨著運輸量的減少，我們不僅會減少與運輸量相關的行駛里程，還能節省固定成本，使我們的運力與新的預期運輸量水準相符。

All facts to the network are included in the reconfiguration.

網路的所有事實都包含在重新配置中。

And we expect to close up to 10% of our building, cut back our vehicle and aircraft fleets, and reduce labor.

我們預計將關閉多達 10% 的建築，削減我們的車輛和飛機數量，並減少勞動力。

The rightsizing of our US capacity allows us to accelerate our Network of the Future initiative.

透過適當調整美國產能，我們可以加快未來網路計畫的實施。

We will be able to more quickly bring down less efficient capacity while further investing in automation across the network, getting us to a more efficient U.S. networks faster.

我們將能夠更快地降低效率較低的容量，同時進一步投資整個網路的自動化，從而更快地實現更有效率的美國網路。

The capital requirements to run our reconfigured network will also decrease.

運行我們重新配置的網路的資本要求也將減少。

We will share more details on our execution plan on our first quarter earnings call in April.

我們將在四月第一季財報電話會議上分享更多有關執行計劃的細節。

Now turning to the changes we made with SurePost.

現在來談談我們使用 SurePost 所做的更改。

As of January 1, we began delivering 100% of our SurePost volume, and in mid-January, we implemented a 9.9% average rate increase on SurePost.

從 1 月 1 日起，我們開始遞送 100％ 的 SurePost 郵件，並於 1 月中旬將 SurePost 的平均費率上調了 9.9％。

Offering a reliable economy service is an important part of our product portfolio and overall value proposition.

提供可靠的經濟服務是我們產品組合和整體價值主張的重要組成部分。

The changes we made give us greater point-to-point operational control and the ability to provide better service to our customers, which brings me to our Efficiency Reimagined initiatives.

我們所做的改變讓我們能夠更好地進行點對點營運控制，並能夠為客戶提供更好的服務，這讓我想到了我們的「效率重塑」計畫。

Lower overall volume and a reconfigured US network create an opportunity for us to increase efficiency by redesigning processes from end to end.

較低的總體量和重新配置的美國網路為我們透過重新設計端到端流程來提高效率創造了機會。

Through Efficiency Reimagined, we expect to deliver approximately $1 billion in savings.

透過“效率重塑”，我們預計可節省約 10 億美元。

Pulling it all together, even while we're undergoing the largest network reconfiguration in our history, we expect to expand U.S. Domestic operating margin in every quarter of 2025, with the full year operating margin approaching 9%.

綜合起來，即使我們正在經歷歷史上最大的網路重構，我們預計 2025 年每個季度美國國內營業利潤率都將擴大，全年營業利潤率將接近 9%。

As the impact of our cost-out efforts increases over the next 18 months, we expect the pace of operating margin improvement to accelerate into 2026, where we expect by the fourth quarter to generate a 12% U.S. operating margin, and we see even more upside potential in the longer term.

隨著我們在未來 18 個月內降低成本的舉措的影響不斷增加，我們預計營業利潤率的改善速度將在 2026 年加快，我們預計到第四季度美國營業利潤率將達到 12%，並且我們預計長期來看具有向上潛力。

Turning to guidance for 2025.

轉向2025年的指導。

Starting with the macro, S&P Global forecast global GDP growth of 2.5% compared to 2024.

從宏觀角度開始，標普全球預測2024年全球GDP將成長2.5%。

Real exports and global industrial production are both expected to increase around 2% year-over-year.

實質出口和全球工業生產預計將年增2%左右。

In the U.S., manufacturing is expected to turn positive for the first quarter of 2025 after seven quarters of negative year-over-year growth, and the consumer is expected to remain resilient.

在美國，製造業在連續七個季度同比負增長後，預計將在 2025 年第一季轉為正增長，消費市場預計將保持韌性。

Moving to our 2025 financial outlook.

展望 2025 年財務展望。

For the full year 2025, on a consolidated basis, revenue is expected to be approximately $89 billion and operating margin is expected to be approximately 10.8%.

就 2025 年全年而言，以合併基礎計算，預計收入約為 890 億美元，營業利潤率預計約為 10.8%。

Our guidance for 2025 does not reflect any significant potential global trade implications due to changes in tariffs.

我們對 2025 年的指導並未反映關稅變化可能對全球貿易造成的任何重大影響。

Now let me give you a little color on the segments.

現在讓我給你一些片段的顏色。

Looking at U.S. Domestic.

看看美國國內。

As a result of the actions we're taking, full year 2025 revenue is expected to decline 2.3% year-over-year, driven by an ADV reduction of about 8.5%, partially offset by strong expected revenue per piece growth of approximately 6%, and we will wrap the newly onboarded USPS air cargo business.

由於我們採取的措施，預計 2025 年全年收入將同比下降 2.3%，其中日均銷售收入下降約 8.5%，但預計每件產品收入將強勁增長約 6%，從而部分抵消了這一影響，我們將完成新加入的USPS 空運業務。

We expect the intended volume and revenue declines to accelerate as we progress throughout the year.

我們預計，隨著全年的進展，預期銷售和收入的下降將會加速。

Full year operating margin is expected to be approximately 8.8%, an increase of 130 basis points compared to 2024.

預計全年營業利潤率約 8.8%，較 2024 年增加 130 個基點。

And to provide a little shape for the first quarter, which has one fewer operating day compared to the first quarter of 2024, we expect revenue to increase nearly 1% year-over-year despite ADV being down approximately 4%, and we expect to expand operating margin by approximately 140 basis points year-over-year.

為了對第一季度的情況進行一些了解，與2024 年第一季度相比，第一季度的營業日減少了一天，我們預計儘管日均營業額下降了約4%，但收入將同比增長近1 %，我們預期營業利潤率較上年同期擴大約140個基點。

Moving to the International segment.

轉向國際領域。

We expect mid-single-digit ADV growth throughout the year, but with lower demand-related surcharges than we've seen in prior years.

我們預計全年日均交易量將維持中等個位數成長，但需求相關的附加費將低於前幾年。

For the year, we expect 2025 revenues to increase approximately 2.5% year-over-year with an operating margin of around 18.6%.

我們預計 2025 年營收將年增約 2.5%，營業利潤率約為 18.6%。

And looking at the first quarter, we expect revenue to be flattish compared to the same period last year and operating margin to be moderately down year-over-year due to lower demand-related surcharges.

展望第一季度，我們預期營收將與去年同期持平，營業利潤率將因需求相關附加費降低而較去年同期略有下降。

And in Supply Chain Solutions, for the full year 2025, we expect revenue to be approximately $11 billion and operating margin to be approximately 8.5%.

在供應鏈解決方案方面，我們預計 2025 年全年營收約為 110 億美元，營業利潤率約為 8.5%。

And SCS in the first quarter, revenue is expected to decline about $500 million due to the reduction in revenue associated with Coyote in the same period last year.

而SCS第一季，營收預計將下降約5億美元，原因是去年同期與Coyote相關的營收減少。

Operating margin in SCS in the first quarter is anticipated to be low to mid-single digits due to pressure from purchased transportation costs related to our Mail Innovations business.

由於與郵件創新業務相關的購買運輸成本的壓力，SCS 第一季的營業利潤率預計將處於低至中等個位數。

We expect the first quarter to be the lowest SCS operating margin in 2025.

我們預計第一季將是 2025 年 SCS 營業利潤率最低的季度。

For modeling purposes, in total below the line, we expect approximately $780 million in expense, with a little more than half in the back half of the year.

為了建模的目的，我們預計總支出約為 7.8 億美元，其中一半多一點將在今年下半年支出。

We expect pension expense to be approximately $37 million for the full year 2025, which is $306 million higher than in 2024, primarily due to the impact of market shifts in interest rates on our pension assets last year.

我們預計 2025 年全年退休金支出約為 3,700 萬美元，比 2024 年高出 3.06 億美元，這主要是由於去年市場利率變化對我們的退休金資產的影響。

We included a slide in the appendix of today's webcast deck to provide you more detail on pension.

我們在今天的網路廣播附錄中附加了一張幻燈片，為您提供有關退休金的更多詳細資訊。

The webcast deck is available on the UPS Investor Relations website.

網路直播內容可在 UPS 投資者關係網站上取得。

Now let's turn to our expectations for cash and the balance sheet.

現在讓我們來談談對現金和資產負債表的預期。

We expect free cash flow to be approximately $5.7 billion, including our annual pension contribution of $1.4 billion.

我們預計自由現金流約為 57 億美元，其中包括每年 14 億美元的退休金繳款。

Capital expenditures are expected to be about $3.5 billion.

預計資本支出約 35 億美元。

While we are accelerating our Network of the Future initiative, our reconfigured U.S. network should require less investment in vehicles and aircraft as we right-size the capital base.

在我們加速推進未來網路計畫的同時，隨著我們適當調整資本基礎，我們重新配置的美國網路應該需要減少對車輛和飛機的投資。

We are planning to pay out around $5.5 billion in dividends in 2025, subject to Board approval.

我們計劃在 2025 年支付約 55 億美元的股息，但須經董事會批准。

We expect to buy back around $1 billion of our shares.

我們預計將回購價值約 10 億美元的股票。

And lastly, we expect the tax rate for the full year to be approximately 23.5% as we expect the current U.S. corporate tax regime to remain.

最後，我們預計全年稅率約為 23.5%，因為我們預計目前的美國企業稅制將保持不變。

We've covered a lot today.

我們今天已討論了很多內容。

We are moving quickly to continue our momentum.

我們正在迅速採取行動，繼續保持這一良好勢頭。

The results of our actions will be an even stronger, more agile and more profitable UPS that's growing in the best parts of the market that value our end-to-end integrated network.

我們的行動將使我們的 UPS 更加強大、更靈活、更有獲利，並在重視我們端到端整合網路的市場最佳部分中持續發展。

With that, operator, please open the lines for questions.

接線員，請打開熱線來回答問題。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

瑞銀的湯姆‧韋德維茲 (Tom Wadewitz)

Yeah, good morning.

是的，早安。

You got a lot of big things going on.

你有很多大事要做。

Wanted to see if you could talk a little bit more about how can we build confidence that -- against a pretty meaningful drop in revenue from the Amazon change that you're able to, I guess, quickly enough, get out the fixed costs so that as opposed to seeing deleveraging and margin pressure, that you're seeing the margin improvement that you're talking about?

我想知道你是否可以再多談談我們如何建立信心——面對亞馬遜變革帶來的相當顯著的收入下降，我想你能夠足夠快地擺脫固定成本，與去槓桿和利潤率壓力相反，您看到的是利潤率的提高嗎？

So yes, I think just a bit more of kind of how that equation can play out, recognizing that we think of the network as a fair bit of fixed cost to start with.

所以是的，我認為對這個等式如何發揮作用有更多的了解，並認識到我們首先將網路視為相當大的固定成本。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tom, happy to do that.

湯姆，我很樂意這麼做。

But maybe I'll just start by talking about the Amazon announcement.

但也許我先來談談亞馬遜的公告。

We've been partnered to Amazon for nearly 30 years, and we hold that company in high regard.

我們與亞馬遜合作已有近 30 年，我們非常尊重該公司。

Amazon is our largest customer but it's not our most profitable customer.

亞馬遜是我們最大的客戶，但它不是我們最賺錢的客戶。

Its margin is very dilutive to the U.S. Domestic business.

其利潤率對美國國內業務而言非常稀釋。

Our contract with Amazon came up this year.

我們與亞馬遜的合約是今年簽訂的。

And so we said it's time to step back for a moment and reassess our relationship.

所以我們說現在是時候退一步並重新評估我們的關係了。

Because if we take no action, it will likely result in diminishing returns.

因為如果我們不採取任何行動，很可能會導致收益遞減。

So we considered a number of different options and landed on what we think is the best option for our company, and that is to accelerate the glide down of their volume with us, as we commented in our prepared remarks, by more than 50% by June of 2026.

因此，我們考慮了許多不同的選擇，最終選擇了我們認為對我們公司最好的選擇，那就是加速他們的交易量下滑，正如我們在準備好的評論中所評論的那樣，下降幅度超過50% 。

As you pointed out, Tom, there are a lot of assets and resources that support that Amazon volume.

正如你所指出的，湯姆，有許多資產和資源支撐著亞馬遜的業務量。

But as we glide down the volume, we'll also be gliding out those assets and resources, which gives us the margin expansion that we've explained.

但隨著交易量的下降，我們也將放棄這些資產和資源，這將帶來我們已經解釋過的利潤擴大。

Now I'll turn it over to Brian, so you can explain how the cost will come out.

現在我將把話題交給 Brian，這樣你就可以解釋成本是如何產生的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And Tom, as we said before, clearly, there's a lot of stakeholders that are involved here.

湯姆，正如我們之前所說，顯然這裡涉及很多利害關係人。

And we needed to make this announcement so we can engage with those stakeholders.

我們需要發布此聲明，以便能夠與這些利害關係人進行接觸。

But you're absolutely right in your intuition that this is going to require a reconfiguration of the network, so that we bring the fixed asset base, the buildings, the vehicles, the aircraft, in line with the new volume levels.

但是您的直覺是完全正確的，這將需要重新配置網絡，以便我們使固定資產基礎、建築物、車輛、飛機與新的數量水準保持一致。

And we'll give you a lot more color on how we're going to roll that schedule out on the first quarter earnings call once we have a chance to engage all the stakeholders involved.

一旦我們有機會與所有相關利害關係人接觸，我們將在第一季財報電話會議上向您詳細介紹我們將如何在第一季財報電話會議上實施該計劃。

But I do think that is the key here, that is the mission.

但我確實認為這是關鍵，這是使命。

And quite frankly, it's already underway with our teams.

坦白說，我們的團隊已經在著手進行這項工作。

And one reason for a glide down over 18 months rather than 6 months because we wanted to make sure that we didn't strand the cost.

選擇在 18 個月內而非 6 個月內下滑的原因之一是，我們想確保不會造成成本滯留。

Now clearly, our labor costs will flex with volume.

現在很明顯，我們的勞動成本會隨著產量而改變。

As volume goes up, we have more hours.

隨著工作量的增加，我們的工作時間也增加了。

As volume comes down, we have less hours.

隨著工作量的下降，我們的工作時間也減少了。

So that's just part of the DNA of how we operate our business.

這只是我們經營業務的 DNA 的一部分。

But we have, I think, proven in 2024 that we can close buildings because with Network of the Future, we did just that.

但我認為，我們已經在 2024 年證明，我們可以關閉建築物，因為借助未來網絡，我們做到了這一點。

We closed down 11 buildings with improved service.

我們關閉了 11 棟建築，並改善了服務。

Nando, would you like to comment on?

Nando，你想評論一下嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And this question, Tom, just to give you comfort here, you'll know that 5 facilities already in January have been partially or completely closed.

湯姆，這個問題只是為了讓你感到安慰，你會知道 1 月已有 5 個設施部分或全部關閉。

And this year, we'll have 140 active Network of the Future projects, 61 of them will go live this year, of course, just driving up the number of shipments that run through our automated facilities.

今年，我們將有 140 個活躍的未來網路項目，其中 61 個將在今年上線，當然，這將推動透過我們的自動化設施處理的出貨量增加。

So that gives me a lot of confidence, give our people a lot of confidence.

這給了我很大的信心，也給了我們的人民很大的信心。

So we feel good about these moves, and we're ahead of schedule.

所以我們對這些舉措感到很滿意，而且我們已經提前完成了計劃。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬丹·阿利格（Jordan Alliger）。

Yeah, hi.

是的，你好。

Just to follow up on the SurePost side of things.

只是為了跟進 SurePost 方面的事情。

Maybe give some sense for how much volume sort of is going to be pulled into the network?

也許可以解釋一下到底有多少容量會被拉入網路？

Can the network assets currently constitute today ready from day 1 to move all the volume that the post office had done so?

目前構成的網路資產能否從第一天起就準備好傳輸郵局所做的所有傳輸量？

And then maybe along with that, can you touch a little bit, is this -- some of this bringing SurePost in-house designed in part at least to replace or infill some of the Amazon business going out, in terms of network density?

然後也許除此之外，您能否稍微談談，將 SurePost 引入公司內部的設計是否至少在一定程度上是為了在網絡密度方面取代或填補亞馬遜部分業務的外包？

Well, Jordan, thanks for the question.

好吧，喬丹，謝謝你的提問。

Let's talk for a moment on SurePost.

讓我們就 SurePost 進行短暫討論。

All SurePost products are sorted through our buildings.

所有 SurePost 產品均透過我們的建築物進行分類。

We had used the USPS for last-mile delivery, for a portion of that.

其中一部分，我們已使用 USPS 進行最後一英里的遞送。

And through our engineering and IT matching algorithms, we've been able to redirect a lot of the SurePost volume back into the network, in fact -- for delivery by our people.

而且透過我們的工程和 IT 匹配演算法，我們實際上已經能夠將大量 SurePost 郵件重定向回網絡，以便由我們的人員進行投遞。

In fact, in the fourth quarter, 50% of the SurePost volume was delivered in the brown network.

事實上，第四季 50% 的 SurePost 郵件量是在棕色網路中遞送的。

So as we came to the decision to in-source all of it and have it all delivered by our network, it was simply a matter of, well, service.

因此，當我們決定將所有業務納入內部採購並透過我們的網路交付時，這只是一個服務問題。

Up until this year, we had been injecting into the last mile network of the USPS and the service there was good.

直到今年，我們一直在註入美國郵政服務的最後一英里網絡，那裡的服務很好。

But as I think you know, the USPS is changing their operating model.

但我想您知道，美國郵政服務正在改變其營運模式。

And as a result of those changes, we were going to have to insert upstream into their sorting facilities.

由於這些變化，我們必須將上游插入他們的分類設施中。

And we were very concerned about service deterioration.

我們非常擔心服務品質下降。

At the same time, they were going to increase their cost to us.

同時，他們也會增加我們的成本。

And the value proposition of an increased cost, as well as deteriorating service, well, that didn't work for us.

而成本增加以及服務品質下降的價值主張對我們來說並不適用。

So in the middle of December, we determined that we would in-source 100% of the SurePost volume, which we have done.

因此在 12 月中旬，我們決定將 100% 的 SurePost 業務量轉為內部採購，事實上我們也確實這麼做了。

And I'm pleased to say that's gone very well for us.

我很高興地說，對我們來說，一切都很順利。

Yes, we have a few more delivery stops per car.

是的，每輛車我們都增加了幾個送貨站點。

Interestingly, we aren't driving more miles.

有趣的是，我們並沒有行駛更多里程。

So ,when we look at the financial impact to in-sourcing SurePost, we feel very good that it's actually not going to have a material impact to our business at all.

因此，當我們考慮內部採購 SurePost 的財務影響時，我們感覺非常好，它實際上不會對我們的業務產生重大影響。

Now we did make a GRI increase, I will admit.

我承認，現在我們確實增加了 GRI。

But from an operating perspective, it's going swimmingly well.

但從營運角度來看，一切進展順利。

Nando, would you like to add?

Nando，你想補充嗎？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

So Jordan, there's multiple opportunities for us to match shipments now as we control that volume over multiple days.

因此喬丹，我們現在有多個機會來匹配貨運量，因為我們可以在多天內控制貨運量。

We've also adjusted our algorithm to really target stops, or stop- matching, to 100 feet of a regular stop.

我們還調整了我們的演算法，以便真正定位站點，或將站點匹配到距離常規站點 100 英尺的位置。

And certainly, this helps us smooth the daily dispatch for our employees.

當然，這有助於我們順利地進行員工的日常調度。

So resources in terms of spiking one day versus another, we're able to flatten that and keep the staffing picture very linear for the company.

因此，儘管資源在某一天出現激增，但我們能夠將其趨於平穩，並使公司的人員配置狀況保持線性。

In addition to that, of course, we're exploring different ways on how we can move the volume through slower networks because it is an economy service, as we look at rail, and how we leverage rail across the country, as well as ground movements to make sure that we're hitting our service portfolio.

除此之外，當然，我們正在探索如何透過較慢的網路傳輸流量的不同方法，因為它是一項經濟服務，我們正在研究鐵路，以及我們如何利用全國範圍內的鐵路以及地面以確保我們能夠實現我們的服務組合。

Early days, so as Carol had said, mileage index looks good.

早期，正如卡羅爾所說，里程指數看起來不錯。

Packages per car look good.

每輛車的包裹看起來都不錯。

The -- just overall performance right now, just really proud of the team, and they continue to try to optimize the services forward.

目前的整體表現，我真的為團隊感到驕傲，他們會繼續努力優化服務。

And Nando, if I could just add one thing because I think it relates to the prior question as well because I think the investments that we have made in the network and the technology allowed us to in-source almost 1.5 million stops within a matter of weeks.

Nando，我是否可以補充一點，因為我認為這也與前面的問題有關，因為我認為我們在網路和技術方面的投資使我們能夠在短短幾分鐘內將近 150 萬個站點納入內部運作。

I think it's a testament to the operators, but also a testament to the agility that we've created into the network.

我認為這是對營運商的證明，也是對我們在網路中創造的靈活性的證明。

And that will help us as we move forward with the reconfiguration that we're undertaking.

這將有助於我們正在進行的重新配置工作。

The other thing I do think is important that you should know is that we have included some expectations that there could be some churn, right, with the GRI and the change in service.

我確實認為另一件重要的事情是您應該知道的，那就是我們已經考慮到了一些預期，即 GRI 和服務的變化可能會帶來一些客戶流失。

There are some customers that this might not work for, and we've taken that into account in our forecast.

對於某些客戶來說，這可能並不適用，我們在預測中已經考慮到了這一點。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧佛農，伯恩斯坦。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

So a couple of questions for you here on this -- on sort of the guidance and the growth outlook.

所以這裡我想問您幾個關於這一點的問題——關於指導和成長前景。

When we think about the 10.8% margin that we're going to have for full year '25, Brian, is there any way to think about that number would look like if you had sort of adjusted the network at the start of the year?

布萊恩，當我們考慮到 25 年全年的 10.8% 利潤率時，有沒有辦法想像，如果您在年初調整了網絡，這個數字會是什麼樣子？

I'm just trying to get a sense for what the run rate level of margin would be if you didn't have the deleveraging that would ultimately come with lower volume.

我只是想知道，如果沒有最終導致交易量下降的去槓桿，保證金的運行率水準會是多少。

And then, Carol, can you maybe talk about what the growth picture looks like ex the glide down.

然後，卡羅爾，你能否談談下滑後的成長情況是怎樣的？

There's a lot of concern in the market right now from investors around the organic or lack of organic growth in the small package business.

目前市場上的投資者對小包裝業務的有機成長或缺乏有機成長有許多擔憂。

And I'm just trying to get a sense for what -- how you guys are thinking about the growth outside of the glide down in the next two years.

我只是想了解一下——你們是如何看待未來兩年下滑之外的成長的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Happy to do that.

很高興這麼做。

Sure.

當然。

So why don't I take the margin question first.

那我為什麼不先回答利潤問題呢？

And Dave, I think what we've built into our forecast is we are going to be taking the fixed cost out commensurate with the volume drawdown as we go through the course of the year.

戴夫，我認為，我們在預測中已經考慮到，我們將在今年內根據交易量的下降相應地削減固定成本。

Now that will also accelerate as we go into 2026 and you'll see an improvement in margin.

隨著我們進入 2026 年，這一進程還將加速，您將看到利潤率的提高。

And as we said, we expect to get to the 12% as we go through 2026.

正如我們所說，我們預計到 2026 年將達到 12%。

I think what's really important is you take a step back and you look at what's going on, even though volume is going to decline relatively, significantly in the U.S., rev per piece is going to go up 6%, right?

我認為真正重要的是退一步思考，看看到底發生了什麼，儘管美國的銷量將相對大幅下降，但每件產品的銷量將上漲 6%，對嗎？

And that will be a combination of customer mix, product mix, but also the continuation of the good base pricing discipline that we've shown in the first quarter.

這將是客戶結構和產品結構的結合，同時也是我們在第一季展現的良好基本定價原則的延續。

And by taking the, I would say, relatively non-nutritive volume, we're unlocking the ability for us to control our margin profile as we move forward and really push it not just to the 12%, but beyond as we move forward and we grow in the areas where it's most important for us.

透過採取相對非營養性的數量，我們正在釋放我們控制利潤率的能力，隨著我們的前進，我們不僅要推動利潤率達到 12%，而且要超越這一水平。中成長。

And David, on the growth algorithm, the small package market, excluding Amazon, is projected to grow in the low single digits in 2025 and we project to take share.

大衛，關於成長演算法，不包括亞馬遜的小包裹市場預計在 2025 年將以個位數低速成長，我們預計將佔據市場份額。

One area of share will be on SMBs.

其中一個共享領域是中小型企業。

We're really proud of the performance we've seen with our SMB growth, nearly 29% of total business in the U.S. in 2024.

我們對中小企業的成長表現感到非常自豪，到 2024 年，中小企業將占美國整體業務的近 29%。

We're going to take that up to 32% in 2025, on our way to 35% in 2026 and beyond.

到 2025 年，我們將把這一比例提升至 32%，到 2026 年及以後達到 35%。

That's just one aspect of growth.

這只是成長的一個面向。

We can look at it through a customer segment or we could also look at it through capabilities.

我們可以透過客戶細分來看待它，也可以透過能力來看待它。

And this is what we're really focused in right now, is focusing on complex logistics that differentiate us away from the rest of the competition.

這就是我們現在真正關注的重點，專注於複雜的物流，使我們有別於其他競爭對手。

How did we grow SMBs?

我們如何發展中小企業？

Because we've invested in our Digital Access Platform.

因為我們已經對數位存取平台進行了投資。

We've invested in pricing Architecture of Tomorrow, which is moving us from the art of pricing to the science of pricing, allow us to put more potential bids through Deal Manager, winning more with less discounting, providing better service for that customer.

我們已經投資了“未來定價架構”，這使我們從定價的藝術走向了定價的科學，使我們能夠通過交易管理器提出更多的潛在投標，以更少的折扣贏得更多的報價，為客戶提供更好的服務。

We're also growing into the healthcare space.

我們也正在向醫療保健領域發展。

We're growing into B2B space through store replenishment.

我們正在透過商店補貨向 B2B 領域發展。

We created a store replenishment system in 2024 with 15 retailers and almost 3,000 stores across the nation, helping them with time-definite delivery into their stores, which helps drive their productivity.

我們於 2024 年與全國 15 家零售商和近 3,000 家門市一起創建了門市補貨系統，幫助他們按時送貨到門市，有助於提高他們的生產力。

So we're going to take share in the slower growth market.

因此我們將在成長較慢的市場中佔據份額。

But we're not going to cap our margin because had we not accelerated the Amazon volume down, we would be capping our margin in a slow growth market.

但我們不會限制我們的利潤，因為如果我們不加速降低亞馬遜的業務量，我們就會在一個緩慢成長的市場中限制我們的利潤。

So now we have an opportunity to grow and grow margin, too.

所以現在我們也有機會發展並提高利潤。

Now you might put the map together for David.

現在你可以為大衛整理地圖了。

David, I think it's important because you're absolutely right.

大衛，我認為這很重要，因為你完全正確。

There's a lot of moving parts in how we go from '24 to '25.

我們如何從'24年走向'25年，有很多活動的部分。

But if you look at the change in the revenue, the $91 to the $89 ,take SCS out of it because that's really related to Coyote, and you've got about $1.5 billion of revenue decline associated with Coyote.

但如果您看看收入的變化，從 91 美元到 89 美元，去掉 SCS，因為它確實與 Coyote 有關，而與 Coyote 相關的收入下降約為 15 億美元。

And you just look at the domestic business.

你只需看看國內業務。

Look, the actions that we're taking with our largest customer are going to draw down revenue about $2.5 billion.

你看，我們針對最大客戶的行動將導致收入減少約 25 億美元。

And then we've got growth, right, it's going to plug that gap of over $1 billion, which, as Carol said, is really focused in SMB, enterprise and these differentiated capabilities that are going to allow us to grow in the market and take share.

然後我們就有了成長，對吧，它將填補超過10 億美元的缺口，正如卡羅爾所說，這實際上專注於中小企業、企業和這些差異化能力，這將使我們能夠在市場上成長，分享。

All right.

好的。

And if I could just squeeze one more in here, Carol, I think on your point about share, the post office is raising rates to you and lowering service levels.

卡羅爾，如果我可以再插一句，我想關於你提到的份額，郵局正在提高費率並降低服務水平。

Is it fair to think that they're doing that to the broader market as well, which kind of increases some of the share take opportunity?

是否可以認為他們也對更廣泛的市場採取了同樣的措施，從而增加了一些市場份額的機會？

Or is that not the right way to think about it?

或者說這不是正確的思考方式？

I think that's absolutely the way to think about it.

我認為這絕對是正確的思考方式。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的史蒂芬妮摩爾 (Stephanie Moore)。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

This is Joe Hafling on for Stephanie Moore.

這是喬·哈夫林 (Joe Hafling) 代替斯蒂芬妮·摩爾 (Stephanie Moore) 表演的。

I maybe wanted to stick on that point on the SurePost and USPS.

我可能想堅持關於 SurePost 和 USPS 的這一點。

In the past, you had talked about handing off that final mile being really high ROIC for you guys.

過去，您曾經談過，交接最後一哩路對您來說將帶來非常高的投資報酬率 (ROIC)。

I guess what's changed and maybe how you guys are operating the network now and bringing those volumes in-house that you feel comfortable kind of bringing in all those volumes and could still see returns?

我想問的是發生了什麼變化，也許您現在如何經營網路並將這些業務帶入公司內部，您是否覺得將所有這些業務帶入公司內部很舒服，並且仍然可以看到回報？

Well, it first starts with service.

嗯，首先從服務開始。

We pride ourselves on service.

我們以服務為榮。

We have the leading on-time service of any competitor.

我們的準時服務比任何競爭對手都要領先。

And if you don't deliver on that value proposition, you can lose the business.

如果你不能實現這個價值主張，你可能會失去生意。

So we wanted to first deliver service.

所以我們想先提供服務。

But then we want to make sure that we can make a buck on this business, too.

但我們也要確保我們能從這項業務中賺錢。

So Nando, you might just reemphasize how we're operationalizing the in-sourcing.

所以 Nando，你可能只是想再次強調我們如何實現內部採購的運作。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

So in the past, we'd really have only one shot to match a shipment to a UPS shipment, and that was the morning of arrival.

因此在過去，我們實際上只有一次機會將貨物與 UPS 貨物進行匹配，那就是貨物到達的當天早上。

Now we've got multiple days, and our technology is able to see through those days to match as many as we can.

現在我們已經有多個日期，我們的技術能夠查看這些日期並匹配盡可能多的日期。

In fact, I think last year, around 30% plus matched.

事實上，我認為去年的匹配率大概是 30% 以上。

We're in the 50s now.

現在已經是 50 歲了。

And we continue to refine that number as we start looking at the proximity deliveries to UPS already scheduled ground packages.

當我們開始關注 UPS 已安排的地麵包裹的鄰近運送情況時，我們會繼續優化這個數字。

And again, I think one of the bigger wins is just smoothing, or the ability to smooth, dispatch across the week, which avoids any spikes and therefore, we don't need to staff up to one day of the week.

而且，我認為更大的好處之一就是平滑或有能力平滑地進行一周內的調度，這避免了任何高峰，因此，我們不需要在一周中的某一天配備員工。

In reality, we staff for the entire week, which brings its own inefficiencies.

事實上，我們整個星期都在安排人員，這本身就帶來了效率低下的問題。

And look, we've got the best dispatch technology that any company would want to have.

看，我們擁有任何公司都想要擁有的最佳調度技術。

And we are utilizing it to the fullest extent.

我們正在最大限度地利用它。

And we don't mind what we see in terms of results right now.

我們並不介意現在看到的結果。

I think they've done a great job being efficient and putting that volume into our network.

我認為他們在高效工作以及將如此大量的數據輸入到我們的網路方面做得非常出色。

And Matt, you might talk about how we are priced relative to the market.

馬特，你可以談談我們的定價相對於市場而言如何。

Yeah.

是的。

So as Carol mentioned, look, we came out with the 9.9% GRI, and we made sure that we aligned value to service.

正如卡羅爾所提到的，我們推出了 9.9% 的 GRI，並確保價值與服務保持一致。

Number one, what was most important is to protect the service of our customers that we just highlighted.

第一，最重要的是保護我們剛才強調的客戶服務。

But I'd ask you just to remember a couple of things.

但我請你記住幾件事。

SurePost is a product in our full portfolio.

SurePost 是我們全系列產品之一。

So when our customers buy, they don't just buy the SurePost product.

因此，當我們的客戶購買時，他們不僅僅購買 SurePost 產品。

They also buy our ground residential, which is our premium offering.

他們也購買我們的地面住宅，這是我們的優質產品。

So both of these -- the products were designed and the way we priced it to be, it's an economy product that is less time sensitive.

所以這兩種產品──我們設計的定價方式都是經濟型產品，對時間的敏感度較低。

But both ground residential and ground SurePost will provide service and reliability to our customers, and we price accordingly to the value.

但是地面住宅和地面 SurePost 都將為我們的客戶提供服務和可靠性，我們會根據價值定價。

And Joe, on the ROIC point, I just want to point out, one of the things we take a lot of pride in is getting the most out of our assets that UPS.

喬，關於投資報酬率，我只想指出，我們引以為傲的事情之一就是最大限度地利用 UPS 的資產。

We do.

是的。

And you can see from our CapEx forecast, we are not going to be adding assets for this volume.

從我們的資本支出預測中您可以看到，我們不會為此增加資產。

It fits into the network.

它適合網路。

And as Nando said, we are able to work it into the dispatch.

正如 Nando 所說，我們能夠將其融入調度中。

And we are focused on managing the capital base and driving ROIC higher, which you see in our 2025 guidance.

我們專注於管理資本基礎和提高 ROIC，這可以在我們的 2025 年指引中看到。

We anticipate, based on the numbers we've just laid out for you today, that our return on invested capital will grow about 300 basis points year-on-year.

根據我們今天向您列出的數字，我們預計我們的投資資本回報率將年增約 300 個基點。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks so much for the thoughtful answers guys.

非常感謝大家的深思熟慮的回答。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

Hey, great, good morning.

嘿，太好了，早安。

Can you qualify what Amazon revenues were for the full year?

您能具體說明一下亞馬遜全年的營收是多少嗎？

I know this was the first time you gave a midyear at 11.5%.

我知道這是你第一次給出 11.5% 的年中成長率。

I don't know if you gave a final year.

我不知道您是否給出了最後一年的數據。

But as Amazon takes back those volumes, can you maybe talk about competition now in different segments?

但隨著亞馬遜收回這些銷售量，您能談談現在不同領域的競爭嗎？

I guess you've always said the reason why they stick with you is you do different things for them such as returns, pickups, things that they rely on you.

我想您總是說，他們之所以堅持與您合作，是因為他們依賴您為他們做不同的事情，例如退貨、取貨等。

Does this mean we should expect an increasing amount of competition in areas that you kind of had a moat around as your specialty versus the market?

這是否意味著，我們應該預期，在你們擅長的領域，相對於市場而言，競爭會越來越激烈？

And how should we think about that from a competitive standpoint?

從競爭的角度來說我們該如何看待這個問題？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

So for the full year, Amazon made up 11.8% of our total company revenue.

因此，全年而言，亞馬遜占我們公司總營收的 11.8%。

From a competitive perspective, I think it's important to note that Amazon will remain a customer of UPS when we finish our accelerated glide down on those areas that are a win for us and a win for them.

從競爭的角度來看，我認為值得注意的是，當我們在對我們和亞馬遜都有利的領域完成加速下滑時，亞馬遜仍將是 UPS 的客戶。

They have a one-way network, as you know, and we can handle things today that they can't handle.

如你所知，他們的網路是單向的，我們今天可以處理他們無法處理的事情。

Amazon, when you think of them as delivering packages, you could think of them as a vertically integrated retailer because that's what they are, ignoring their AWS business, but that's what they are, as a vertically integrated retailer who needs some help with some things, and we're going to provide that help for them any more nutritive fashion when we reach the accelerated glide down.

亞馬遜，如果你認為他們正在運送包裹，那麼你可以認為他們是一家垂直整合零售商，因為他們就是這樣的，忽略他們的AWS 業務，但他們確實是一家垂直整合零售商，在某些事情上需要一些幫助，當我們加速滑行時，我們將以更有營養的方式為他們提供幫助。

I will tell you, Ken, this was not their ask.

我會告訴你，肯，這不是他們的要求。

This was us.

這就是我們。

This was UPS taking control of our destiny.

這就是 UPS 掌控我們的命運。

We'll be working with them, of course, on the accelerated glide down because they've got to figure out how to catch some of this volume.

當然，我們將與他們合作，加速滑行，因為他們必須想辦法抓住其中的一部分。

But we are not anticipating changes in the competitive environment as a result.

但我們預期競爭環境不會因此而改變。

Great.

偉大的。

I guess if I could throw a follow-in.

我想如果我可以跟進的話。

The pace of the consolidated -- the facility shutdowns, Nando, you were talking about how you've already started that.

合併的步伐——工廠關閉，南多，你正在談論你是如何開始這一進程的。

Is there kind of numbers you can throw out?

有沒有什麼數字可以拋出？

Maybe update us on how quick you can get some of those out.

也許可以告訴我們你能多快把其中一些拿出來。

Yes.

是的。

Ken, as I mentioned before, we've got a lot of stakeholders that we need to talk to related to the network reconfiguration.

肯，正如我之前提到的，我們有很多利益相關者需要與網路重新配置進行溝通。

We're going to lay that out for you on the first quarter call.

我們將在第一季的電話會議上向您介紹這一點。

It's fair to say it will accelerate as we go through the year, especially in the second half and then into the first half of '26.

可以公平地說，隨著時間的推移，尤其是在26年下半年以及26年上半年，這一趨勢將會加速。

But give us until April, and we'll lay that plan out for you.

但請耐心等待四月，我們將為您制定計劃。

Great, thanks.

太好了，謝謝。

Appreciate the time.

珍惜時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ariel Rosa, Citigroup.

花旗集團的阿里爾·羅莎 (Ariel Rosa)。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

So a lot of changes underway.

因此，很多變化正在進行中。

Carol, I was hoping maybe you could paint a picture for us of how you envision the future of UPS, say, five or ten years from now?

卡羅爾，我希望您能為我們描述一下您對 UPS 未來的展望，比如說五年或十年後？

And then specifically, you talked about some of these growth areas.

然後具體來說，您談到了其中一些成長領域。

Maybe you could give us some color on how you see kind of the TAM of those growth areas, whether it's healthcare or SMB and what role UPS plays within that market such that the top line revenue growth doesn't experience the material decline that I think a lot of people are perhaps concerned about this morning?

也許您可以告訴我們您如何看待這些成長領域的 TAM，無論是醫療保健還是中小企業，以及 UPS 在該市場中扮演什麼角色，以使營收成長不會出現我認為的大幅下滑很多人也許關心今天早上發生的事？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you for the question.

感謝您的提問。

I'd love to talk about our future because I think our future is very bright.

我很樂意談論我們的未來，因為我認為我們的未來非常光明。

We are leaning into the segments of the market that value our end-to-end network but we're doing it through differentiated capabilities.

我們正傾向於關注我們端到端網路的細分市場，但我們是透過差異化能力來實現的。

And so when you think about the future of UPS, think about complex logistics where we are providing solutions for the segments of the market that no one else has.

因此，當您思考 UPS 的未來時，請思考複雜的物流，我們將為市場上其他任何人都沒有的細分市場提供解決方案。

Think about RFID tagging, which started as a productivity initiative for us, has turned into an inventory management opportunity and benefit for our upstream customers.

想想 RFID 標籤，它最初對我們來說是一項生產力舉措，現在已經轉變為庫存管理機會並為我們上游客戶帶來利益。

Think about healthcare.

考慮一下醫療保健。

Healthcare is such an opportunity for us.

醫療保健對我們來說就是這樣的一個機會。

The healthcare market growth slowed down a bit in 2024.

2024 年醫療保健市場成長略有放緩。

The market grew 2.5%.

市場成長了2.5%。

We grew 5%.

我們成長了5%。

So our healthcare revenue for the year, about $10.5 billion.

因此，我們今年的醫療保健收入約為 105 億美元。

We've got plans to take that to $20 billion by 2026.

我們計劃在 2026 年將這一數字提高到 200 億美元。

And the TAM, the addressable market, just in complex, is over $80 billion.

整體而言，TAM（潛在市場）超過 800 億美元。

To break down that $10.5 billion for you, we've got $5 billion in complex, we've got $1.5 billion in clinical and we've got about $4 billion in non-complex.

我們將這 105 億美元細分為以下幾個部分：複雜項目 50 億美元，臨床項目 15 億美元，非複雜項目約 40 億美元。

So we are going to over-index on the complex and clinical over the next several years.

因此，未來幾年我們將過度重視複雜性和臨床性。

As we think back now on these differentiated opportunities, international diversification is also an opportunity for us.

現在我們回想起這些差異化的機會，國際多元化對我們來說也是一個機會。

A couple of years ago, we realized that manufacturers in China were moving to a China plus 1 strategy, where they weren't exiting China, but they were moving manufacturing to other locations like Vietnam.

幾年前，我們意識到中國的製造商正在轉向「中國+1」策略，也就是他們不會退出中國，而是將製造業務轉移到越南等其他地方。

So we got ahead of it.

因此，我們已經領先了。

We expanded our operations, and we see in these trade lanes where we expanded operations 20% growth, 30% growth.

我們擴大了業務，我們看到這些擴大業務的貿易航線成長了 20%、30%。

So international diversification is another opportunity us.

因此，國際多元化對我們來說是另一個機會。

So this is not a company that's shrinking.

所以這不是一家正在萎縮的公司。

This is a company that's gliding down its largest customer, but it's not a company that's shrinking.

這家公司正在失去最大客戶，但它並不是一家正在萎縮的公司。

It's a company that's growing.

這是一家正在成長的公司。

Now we laid out some revenue targets and operating margin targets a year ago in March.

我們在一年前的三月制定了一些收入目標和營業利潤率目標。

We're going to hit the operating margin targets.

我們將實現營業利潤率目標。

We are absolutely confident on that.

我們對此絕對有信心。

We will reset the revenue targets once we get through all this because we need to give you color and clarity as to where we're taking the top line.

一旦我們完成所有這些，我們就會重新設定收入目標，因為我們需要向您清楚地說明我們的收入目標。

But there's plenty of growth ahead for us, a differentiated UPS, complex logistics, which is the premium part of the market.

但我們未來還有很大的成長空間，差異化的UPS、複雜的物流，這些都是市場的高階部分。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯‧韋瑟比。

Carol, maybe I can pick up on that last point.

卡羅爾，也許我可以談談最後一點。

I think the 2026 question is an important one.

我認為 2026 年的問題很重要。

And I get the margin mix up as a result of some of the glide down here.

由於這裡的一些下滑，我得到了利潤混淆的結果。

But I guess, as we think about this process, I mean, is there any way you can give us comfort that we won't be sort of in a flattish or maybe down earnings scenario for a multiyear period of time.

但我想，當我們思考這個過程時，我的意思是，有什麼方法可以讓我們相信，在多年的時間內，我們不會出現盈利持平甚至下降的情況？

So I guess, in other words, maybe more directly, can you grow earnings in 2026?

所以我想，換句話說，也許更直接地說，你能在 2026 年增加收入嗎？

And I guess if you can, can you walk us through maybe some of the parameters?

如果可以的話，可以向我們介紹一些參數嗎？

I know you want to lay them out in more detail in April.

我知道你想在四月更詳細地闡述這些內容。

But I think just given sort of the magnitude of what we're talking about here, some help around kind of guide points for 2026, I think are important.

但我認為，考慮到我們在此討論的問題的重要性，為 2026 年提供一些指導點，我認為這很重要。

And I think that's absolutely a fair question.

我認為這絕對是一個公平的問題。

And as I thought about this last night, I'm like they're going to ask this question, we need to come out and do that for you.

當我昨晚想到這一點時，我感覺他們會問這個問題，我們需要站出來為你做這件事。

I'm not going to do it on today's call.

我不會在今天的電話會議上做這件事。

We need to come out and do that for you in a thoughtful way so we can give you the TAMs, we can show you how we're growing.

我們需要以一種周到的方式為您做到這一點，這樣我們才能為您提供 TAM，向您展示我們的成長方式。

We can do that in a thoughtful way.

我們可以以一種深思熟慮的方式來做到這一點。

Brian, I don't know -- we'll figure out of time to do that this year, maybe at the end of the first quarter, we'll figure out of time to do that.

布萊恩，我不知道——我們會在今年找出時間來做這件事，也許在第一季末，我們會找出時間來做這件事。

Brian, is there any color that you want to share right now?

布萊恩，你現在想分享什麼顏色嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And Chris, and while we will absolutely lay out 2026, I just want to make sure that we're also clear on what 2025 is going to look like because we have both plans as we draw down the volume, we'll be taking fixed costs out.

克里斯，雖然我們肯定會規劃 2026 年，但我只是想確保我們也清楚 2025 年的情況，因為我們有兩項計劃，隨著產量的下降，我們將採取固定成本。

We also have efficiency reimagined that we talked about that's going to drive $1 billion in cost savings through process improvement.

我們也重新構想了效率，透過流程改善可以節省 10 億美元的成本。

That's also underway.

這項工作也正在進行中。

We're starting to see results from it.

我們開始看到成果。

And it's an exciting program because it makes us a much more agile organization.

這是一個令人興奮的計劃，因為它使我們成為一個更敏捷的組織。

So as we progress through the quarter, we will expand domestic operating margin in every quarter of this year, right?

因此，隨著本季的進展，我們今年每季的國內營業利潤率都會擴大，對嗎？

We will expand it every quarter of this year, and we will finish with almost 130 basis points better than we finished last year.

我們今年每季都會擴大這一數字，最終的成績將比去年高出近 130 個基點。

That's going to accelerate as we go into 2026, and we'll lay that out for you on the coming call.

隨著我們進入 2026 年，這一進程將會加速，我們將在下次電話會議上向您詳細說明。

We're growing profit dollars, not just margin.

我們不僅在增加利潤，還在增加利潤。

We're growing profit dollars.

我們的利潤正在增加。

And I think that's -- we're not shrinking the profit dollars.

我認為，我們的利潤不會減少。

We're growing the profit dollars.

我們的利潤正在增加。

And that's something we can think about in 2026 as well?

這也是我們在 2026 年可以考慮的事情嗎？

Yeah, absolutely because we will accelerate the cost out related to the fixed cost.

是的，絕對是，因為我們將加速與固定成本相關的成本。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Carol, you said a few times that this business has been very dilutive to margin.

卡羅爾，您多次說過，這項業務對利潤率的侵蝕非常大。

I'm just wondering, like, would you characterize this as a mid-single-digit margin or low single digit or no margin business?

我只是想知道，您會將其描述為中等個位數利潤率、低個位數利潤率還是零利潤率業務？

That's the first thing.

這是第一件事。

I totally get the mix impact here.

我完全理解這裡的混合影響。

But when I just think about price, right, if we're losing 10%, 15% of the volume and we, to some extent, need to backfill that, does that in any way change your pricing discipline?

但是當我只考慮價格時，如果我們的銷售損失了 10% 到 15%，而我們在某種程度上需要彌補這一損失，這會改變您的定價原則嗎？

And then last thing, I know I'm asking a lot, but last thing, do you think we should just assume that the other 50% of this business goes away in a few years when the contract comes up again?

最後一件事，我知道我問的很多，但最後一件事，您是否認為我們應該假設當合約再次到期時，這筆業務的另外 50％ 會在幾年後消失？

So I'll answer the last part first.

因此我將首先回答最後一部分。

I don't think so.

我不這麼認為。

Think about returns.

考慮回報。

We have 5,200 UPS store locations that make it very convenient for customers of Amazon to return their Amazon packages.

我們擁有 5,200 家 UPS 商店，方便亞馬遜客戶退回他們的亞馬遜包裹。

We do that very, very well for Amazon.

我們為亞馬遜做得非常非常好。

So there's a place where -- of a harmony, if you will, between our two companies.

因此，如果你願意的話，我們兩家公司之間存在著一種和諧的氛圍。

So I don't think it will go all away.

所以我不認為它會完全消失。

I think we're landing at the right spot with this accelerated glide down.

我認為，透過這種加速滑行，我們將降落在正確的位置。

I think it would be inappropriate for me to talk about the profitability of any account.

我認為談論任何帳戶的盈利能力都是不合適的。

This is extraordinarily dilutive, and I'll leave it at that.

這具有極大的稀釋作用，我就不多說了。

And perhaps you could back into the number, if you look at the percentage of revenue and the volume that we described, and that might help you think about the dilution.

如果您查看我們描述的收入百分比和數量，也許您可以回到這個數字，這可能會幫助您思考稀釋。

Brian, anything you want to add to that?

布萊恩，您還有什麼要補充嗎？

And Scott, I also want to be clear because you asked about pricing discipline, and I think this is a really important point because we're reconfiguring the network to the new volume level.

史考特，我也想明確一點，因為你問到了定價原則，我認為這是非常重要的一點，因為我們正在將網路重新配置到新的容量等級。

So we're not chasing volume in order to fill empty capacity.

因此，我們不會為了填補空置產能而追求數量。

The capacity will adjust to the new volume level.

容量將調整至新的音量等級。

And that's really a key point because we have shown pricing discipline in the second half of 2024.

這確實是一個關鍵點，因為我們已經在 2024 年下半年展示了定價紀律。

We saw great revenue per piece growth in the fourth quarter, and that's going to extend into 2025 and be a portion of the rev per piece improvement that we see.

我們看到第四季的每件收入大幅成長，這種成長將延續到 2025 年，並​​成為我們所看到的每件收入改善的一部分。

That pricing discipline is implemented, we've got processes in place, and we absolutely are going to continue to keep that going forward.

我們已經實施了定價原則，並已製定了流程，而且我們絕對會繼續保持這項原則。

So do you think you can reduce capacity one for one with the volume drop here?

那麼，您認為隨著這裡的銷售量下降，容量可以一一減少嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you guys.

謝謝你們。

Appreciate.

欣賞。

It.

它。

Yeah, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的拉維‧尚克 (Ravi Shanker)。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just a few here.

這裡就有幾個。

You quantified the Amazon revenues a couple of times now.

您現在已經量化了亞馬遜的收入幾次。

Can you quantify what percentage of the US Domestic volumes are Amazon?

你能量化一下亞馬遜在美國國內銷售中所佔的百分比嗎？

Because I think that's a pretty important stat for doing the math here.

因為我認為對於這裡的數學計算來說這是一個非常重要的統計數據。

And also, to your point on the returns, I think Amazon did start trailing an in-house return program last year.

另外，關於您提到的退貨問題，我認為亞馬遜去年確實開始推行內部退貨計劃。

Do you see a risk to that scaling up over time as well?

您是否認為隨著時間的推移，這種擴大的風險也會增加？

So Ravi, on the volume, if you think around 20% of the volume in the U.S. network, 2025, depending on the time and the price.

因此，Ravi，就交易量而言，如果您認為到 2025 年美國網絡的交易量將達到 20% 左右，這取決於時間和價格。

Look, on the returns, and I'll let Matt talk a little bit about our returns portfolio in a second.

關於回報，稍後我將讓馬特稍微談談我們的回報組合。

But what I would say is there's a lot of return solutions in the market.

但我想說的是，市場上有很多退貨解決方案。

Here's what I know, our returns growth continues to grow with UPS store.

據我所知，我們的退貨成長隨著 UPS 商店而持續成長。

We have a great footprint.

我們有著偉大的足跡。

We have a great customer experience.

我們擁有出色的客戶體驗。

And Matt, maybe you want to talk a little bit about how we've been adding to that.

馬特，也許你想談談我們是如何做到這一點的。

Yes.

是的。

I think Carol hit on it.

我認為卡羅爾已經意識到了這一點。

When you think about the physical footprint that we have in the United States, 5,200 stores give us access in the proximity to very, very close to most consumers in the U.S. and just the overall experience, right, is the key component.

當你想到我們在美國擁有的實體店時，5,200 家商店讓我們非常接近美國大多數消費者，而整體體驗是關鍵組成部分。

Returns in reverse logistics is hard to do.

逆向物流的退貨比較困難。

And this gives us a capability and we continue to build on that.

這賦予了我們能力，我們會在此基礎上繼續發展。

Let me just give you one other example though.

讓我再舉一個例子。

We've also added -- if you remember, we acquired Happy Returns.

我們也補充道——如果你還記得的話，我們收購了 Happy Returns。

This complements that return experience because now not only do you have the physical, but you can also do the digital, which is a no box, no label, which drives a much better experience for the consumer, for UPS and for our customers as well.

這補充了退貨體驗，因為現在你不僅可以進行實體退貨，還可以進行數位化退貨，即無需包裝箱、無需標籤，這為消費者、UPS 和我們的客戶帶來了更好的體驗。

So we continue to add to this and believe that we have the best-in-class returns portfolio.

因此，我們將繼續增加這部分投資，並相信我們擁有一流的回報組合。

And I might dimensionalize the glide down in a different way just to help you in the modeling between '21 and '24, on average, we -- the glide down was about 250,000 packages per day, per year.

我可能會用不同的方式來對下滑趨勢進行維度化，只是為了幫助您在 21 年至 24 年期間進行建模，平均而言，我們 — — 下滑趨勢大約為每天、每年 250,000 個包裹。

Between '24 and '26, on average, and of course, it's not -- the average is just an average, but the average between '24 and '26 will be 1.25 million packages per day, per year.

在 2024 年至 2026 年期間，平均而言，當然，這不是——平均值只是平均值，但 2024 年至 2026 年期間的平均值將是每年每天 125 萬個包裹。

So 5x as fast as what we did before.

因此速度比以前快了 5 倍。

Brian Ossenbeck, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的布萊恩‧奧森貝克。

Thank you morning.

謝謝你早安。

Thanks for taking the questions, Just a couple of follow-ups here.

感謝您回答這些問題，這裡我只想問幾個後續問題。

Given that big impact on volume, and I'm assuming Amazon was a pretty big peaker during peak season, can you talk about the broader implications for the network for peak season?

考慮到對銷售的巨大影響，而且我假設亞馬遜在旺季的銷售高峰相當大，您能談談旺季對網路的更廣泛的影響嗎？

I know you can give us more an update in April after, I'm assuming, you speak to the Teamsters about this big change.

我知道您可以在四月與卡車司機工會談論這一重大變化之後，向我們提供更多最新消息。

But can you give us a sense in terms of what, maybe complications, you can encounter with that can you still reach Sunday delivery with SurePost?

但是您能否告訴我們可能會遇到哪些複雜情況，是否仍可以透過 SurePost 實現週日投遞？

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

So from a peak perspective, we'll operate peak like we do every other year.

因此，從高峰角度來看，我們將像往年一樣實現高峰營運。

We won't have as many leases, I suspect.

我懷疑我們不會有那麼多的租約。

But we'll operate just like we do any other year.

但我們的營運方式將與往年一樣。

Nando, what would you like to add?

Nando，您想補充什麼？

So regarding peak, we stretch our network with variable costs.

因此，就峰值而言，我們以可變成本來擴展我們的網路。

So we'll rent equipment.

所以我們將租賃設備。

We'll set up temporary sort facilities.

我們將設立臨時分類設施。

A lot of that is not going to be required.

其中很多都是不需要的。

We'll lease aircraft.

我們將租賃飛機。

We won't need to.

我們不需要。

We rent tractors and trailers andshifters and all that stuff from our vendors.

我們從供應商租用拖拉機、拖車、變速裝置和所有這些東西。

And clearly, as the volume settles, that's an opportunity for us to not rent those pieces of equipment this peak season.

顯然，隨著交易量的穩定，我們就有機會在旺季不租用這些設備。

So I think we've built that little hedge for ourselves within the variable costs, so we're just going to pull all that back in.

所以我認為，我們已經在變動成本中為自己建立了一點小對沖，所以我們要把所有這些都收回來。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯康姆梅傑斯，薩斯奎哈納。

Carol and Nando, I think we've seen more change in the parcel space in the last two years than the prior 15.

卡羅爾和南多，我認為過去兩年我們看到的包裹空間變化比之前 15 年更大。

Yeah.

是的。

Can we talk -- another big picture question here.

我們可以談談嗎——這是另一個大問題。

When we roll out to 2027, '28, number one, do you think that we've seen the last of the big shoes to drop on some of the changes to the competitive landscape, cost structures, that sort of thing with you and your competitors?

當我們推出 2027 年或 2028 年時，首先，您是否認為我們已經看到了競爭格局、成本結構等一些變化的最後影響，以及您和您的公司競爭對手？

Or could there be more seismic shifts?

或是還會發生更多劇烈的變化嗎？

And you already talked a bit on a previous question about where you think UPS wins in that long-term landscape.

在先前的問題中您已經稍微談論了您認為 UPS 在長期前景中會如何獲勝。

Can you talk a little bit about your competitors?

您能談談您的競爭對手嗎？

Like where do FedEx ground and ground economy win and have an advantage?

例如，聯邦快遞地面運輸和地面經濟在哪些方面勝出並具有優勢？

Where does USPS ground advantage win?

USPS 地面優勢在哪裡？

Where do the regional or gig economy players win just to think about the competitive landscape more holistically longer term?

如果從更全面、更長遠的角度考慮競爭格局，區域或零工經濟參與者將如何獲勝？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, there's a lot to that question, and we were focusing our comments today pretty much on '25, and shooting in a little bit to '26, but happy to think big picture on '27 and '28.

嗯，這個問題有很多內容，今天我們的評論主要集中在 25 年，稍微展望了 26 年，但也很高興能從宏觀角度考慮 27 年和 28 年。

I think the world is changing and the rate of change is accelerating.

我認為世界正在改變，改變的速度正在加快。

It's hard to imagine a big shoe to drop.

很難想像會有這麼大的事情發生。

I don't think we fully understand the impact of generative AI and what it can mean for productivity amongst industries broadly.

我認為我們尚未完全了解生成式人工智慧的影響及其對整個產業生產力的意義。

It certainly is an opportunity for us to drive productivity and better customer experience.

這無疑是我們提高生產力和改善客戶體驗的機會。

Would it put us at a competitive disadvantage to anyone?

這會讓我們在競爭中處於劣勢嗎？

I can see that.

我明白。

In fact, I think we're ahead of most companies in this space, but we need to be mindful that that's changing.

事實上，我認為我們在這個領域領先於大多數公司，但我們需要注意這種情況正在改變。

We need to be mindful that trade follows policy and tariffs aren't necessarily good for trade.

我們需要記住，貿易遵循政策，關稅並不一定對貿易有利。

So there may be changing trade lanes.

因此貿易路線可能會發生變化。

I don't know if it's a big shoe to drop, but it could be changing trade lanes.

我不知道這是不是一個巨大的打擊，但它可能會改變貿易路線。

So we do know of the largest trade lanes out in the world, they're in Asia.

我們確實知道世界上最大的貿易航線在亞洲。

And we're expanding our air hub in Hong Kong and building new in the Philippines.

我們正在擴建位於香港的航空樞紐，並在菲律賓建造新的航空樞紐。

So we're going to be ready to take advantage of these changing trade lanes, however they may come about.

因此，無論這些變化的貿易航線如何出現，我們都將做好準備，充分利用它們。

There's a lot of opportunity for UPS to grow in the differentiated logistics, complex logistics world.

在差異化物流、複雜物流領域，UPS 擁有很大的發展機會。

But the capabilities that we are enabling throughout our business, it creates stickiness with customers like we've never seen before.

但是，我們在整個業務過程中所實現的功能，卻創造了前所未有的客戶黏著度。

Perhaps that's a big shoe to drop because our churn improved more last year than it's been since I got here.

或許這是一個巨大的打擊，因為去年我們的客戶流失率比我來到這裡以來有所改善。

So from a competitive positioning perspective, I do believe stickiness puts us at a point of differentiation.

因此，從競爭定位的角度來看，我確實相信黏性使我們處於差異化的位置。

Now perhaps when we come back, Brian, and do the addressable markets and where we're going to grow and the revenue, we can talk more about our competitive positioning.

布萊恩，現在也許當我們回來討論可尋址市場以及我們將在哪裡增長和收入時，我們可以更多地談論我們的競爭定位。

But trust me on this, we take every competitor, and we tear it apart to understand where we may have a gap and how we might need to fill that gap.

但請相信我，我們會把每個競爭對手分開，以了解我們可能存在差距的地方以及我們可能需要如何填補這一差距。

I'll give you two examples.

我給你舉兩個例子。

In Europe last year, we didn't have an economy product and that was a problem for us.

去年在歐洲，我們沒有經濟型產品，這對我們來說是一個問題。

So our IT team, working with our pricing team and our operating team in Europe, they fast train -- tracked that, didn't they, Kate?

所以我們的 IT 團隊與歐洲的定價團隊和營運團隊合作，進行了快速培訓—跟踪，不是嗎，凱特？

They're growing double digits.

他們正以兩位數的速度成長。

Growing double digits.

增長兩位數。

We needed to offer a weekend solution.

我們需要提供一個週末解決方案。

What did we do on weekend, Kate?

凱特，我們週末做了什麼？

Well, we rolled out first in Canada and now in Europe in major countries, especially in Western Europe and both of them exceeding the revenue targets and doing better on the cost side of it because we just built it into our regular efficiencies that we do around the world.

我們首先在加拿大推出，現在在歐洲主要國家推出，特別是西歐，這兩個國家都超過了收入目標，而且在成本方面做得更好，因為我們把它納入了我們周圍的常規效率中。 。

So when we see a gap that we need to fill, we do it.

因此，當我們看到需要填補的空白時，我們就會去做。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bruce Chan, Stifel.

布魯斯陳（Bruce Chan），Stifel。

Yeah, thanks, operator and good morning everyone.

是的，謝謝接線生，大家早安。

I think it's very encouraging to see some of the proactive changes here, and maybe I'll just focus in on SPSF because it strikes me that the RFID initiative is very helpful in optimizing your assets with some of these fairly significant market developments.

我認為看到這裡的一些積極變化非常令人鼓舞，也許我只會關注 SPSF，因為我認為 RFID 計劃對於利用一些相當重要的市場發展來優化您的資產非常有幫助。

It looks like you're underway in Phase 2.

看起來您已進入第二階段。

So maybe what's the target for rollout across the entire package car fleet?

那麼，在整個套餐車隊中推廣的目標是什麼？

And any comments that you have around the time line, especially in the Phase 3 would be great?

您對時間線，特別是第 3 階段有什麼評論嗎？

So Nando, would you like to take that?

那麼 Nando，你願意接受這個嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So we've got a schedule, of course, prepared a dedicated team to execute the changes as we talk about the changes to Amazon and other changes here with SurePost.

因此，我們制定了一個時間表，當然，準備了一個專門的團隊來執行這些變更，就像我們談論對亞馬遜的變更以及 SurePost 的其他變更一樣。

That schedule is completely linked to our financial plan, and we have full confidence that we can execute those changes.

該計劃與我們的財務計劃完全掛鉤，我們完全有信心執行這些變革。

In addition to what Carol mentioned earlier, especially with RFID tagging, we've got an opportunity to pull customers in where the stickiness just becomes a real big discussion and decision if they ever want to really disconnect from that technology because it's going to not just help delivery of packages, but also their back office environment, which we're really excited about.

除了 Carol 之前提到的，特別是 RFID 標籤，我們有機會吸引客戶，如果他們真的想脫離這項技術，那麼粘性就會成為一個真正的重大討論和決定，因為它不僅僅是不僅幫助遞送包裹，也改善了他們的後台辦公環境，我們對此感到非常興奮。

We should be rolled out this year.

我們應該會在今年推出。

And from a customer stickiness perspective, Matt, you can give a couple of examples.

從客戶黏性的角度來看，馬特，您可以舉幾個例子。

Yes.

是的。

So what Nando just highlighted and Carol framed is it's really important because we do get from RFID, we get some productivity benefits and efficiency benefits.

所以 Nando 剛剛強調的和 Carol 提出的是，這真的很重要，因為我們確實從 RFID 中獲得了一些生產力效益和效率效益。

But from a customer value proposition, it's resonating very, very well.

但從顧客價值主張來看，它引起了非常非常好的共鳴。

When you think about how you connected to our value proposition in the B2B or commercial space, we typically think industrial and high-tech in some of these areas, but retail is a big driver through store replenishment.

當您思考如何與我們在 B2B 或商業領域的價值主張聯繫起來時，我們通常會考慮其中一些領域的工業和高科技，但零售是透過商店補貨實現的巨大推動力。

And this has really enabled us to win in this space.

這確實使我們在這個領域取得了勝利。

We brought over -- and if you heard Carol in her opening comments, she highlighted this, but 15 retailers that we've already onboarded and I would -- large enterprise retailers in the United States that really -- that love the RFID capability because they have inbound visibility to what's hitting their docks, and it allows them then to spread their workforce and how they inbound that volume.

我們帶來了——如果你聽過Carol 在開場發言中提到這一點的話，她強調了這一點，但我們已經合作了15 家零售商，我想——美國的大型企業零售商真的很喜歡RFID 功能，因為他們能夠清楚地看到碼頭上的貨物情況，從而可以分配勞動力並確定貨物入站方式。

It also, again, it complements us from a commercial perspective because we can deliver many packages to those one locations.

而且，從商業角度來看，它也對我們起到了補充作用，因為我們可以將許多包裹運送到這些地點。

The last piece I would add on to that, which when you couple this together is we are able to get these retailers inbound delivery windows and it allows them that flexibility.

我要補充的最後一點是，當你將兩者結合在一起時，我們就能夠獲得這些零售商的入站交貨窗口，並為他們提供靈活性。

So you have the physical capability but then you have the visibility through RFID.

因此，您不僅擁有物理能力，而且還可以透過 RFID 實現可視性。

And we believe we're just on the edge of something great here to work with our retailers to continue to grow.

我們相信，我們正處於偉大的邊緣，透過與零售商的合作，我們將繼續成長。

So it improves our stocking.

因此它改善了我們的庫存。

It reduces their labor hours.

這減少了他們的勞動時間。

It's a win-win.

這是一個雙贏的局面。

So we'll continue to lean into that in a big way.

因此，我們將繼續大力支持這項工作。

And we're ahead of the game here when we look around the competitive landscape around the world.

當我們環顧全球競爭格局時，我們處於領先地位。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays Capital.

巴克萊資本的布蘭登‧奧格倫斯基 (Brandon Oglenski)。

Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my question.

大家好，早安，感謝您回答我的問題。

Carol, maybe just a quick two-part one here on capital.

卡羅爾，也許這裡只是關於資本的兩部分簡短討論。

Given that you're rightsizing the domestic network right now, what would be the right level of maintenance CapEx for the business?

鑑於您目前正在調整國內網路規模，那麼適合該業務的維護資本支出水準為何？

And this 3.5, the level you took it to this year, which is I think a pretty drastic cut from where you thought you'd be a year ago.

這個 3.5 是您今年達到的水平，我認為與一年前您預期的水平相比，這是一個相當大的下降。

Is that sustainable?

這是可持續的嗎？

And then I guess in that same context, how prudent is $1 billion share repurchase this year with anticipated dividend payments of $5.5 billion, especially when your payout ratio looks like it's going to be approaching 80% of trailing earnings, when I think you're targeting something closer to 50Thank you.

然後我想，在同樣的背景下，今年回購10 億美元股票，預計股息支付55 億美元，這是否明智，尤其是當你的派息率看起來將接近過去收益的80% 時，我認為你目標接近50謝謝。

So on the capital side, Brian, I'll let you address that, and then I'll talk about the allocation shareowners.

因此，在資本方面，布萊恩，我讓你解決這個問題，然後我將談談股東分配。

Sure.

當然。

Yeah, Brandon, and thanks for the question.

是的，布蘭登，謝謝你的提問。

Because capital management is very important to us, and you see we have brought down the capital.

因為資本管理對我們來說非常重要，你看我們已經降低資本了。

Now I will say within that CapEx plan, we are fully funding Network of the Future.

現在我要說的是，在該資本支出計劃中，我們將全額資助未來網路。

And I think as along with the -- in concert with the network reconfiguration, that's going to allow us to take that 63% of volume processed through automated facilities, up significantly as we rationalize less efficient conventional capacity.

我認為，隨著網路重新配置的進行，隨著我們合理化效率較低的傳統產能，透過自動化設施處理的 63% 的運量將顯著上升。

So we're fully funding that, and we're moving forward with it.

因此，我們將全額資助該計畫並繼續進行。

Where we are able to tighten up is the volume drawdown will allow us to operate with quite frankly, fewer vehicles, fewer aircraft and fewer buildings.

我們能夠加強的地方是，減少數量將使我們能夠使用更少的車輛、更少的飛機和更少的建築物進行運作。

And that's what we're anticipating.

這正是我們所期待的。

I think as you think about going forward, we will be managing the capital base.

我認為，當你考慮未來時，我們將管理資本基礎。

So thinking about CapEx in line with depreciation is where we think that we're going to need to manage it as we continue to automate, but also manage the capital base as we improve ROIC.

因此，我們認為，在繼續自動化的同時，我們需要根據折舊來考慮資本支出，同時也需要在提高投資報酬率的同時管理資本基礎。

That's realistic.

這很現實。

And if you go back to kind of before we were allocating a lot of capital into a specific customer, that's kind of where we were.

如果你回顧我們之前為特定客戶分配大量資金的情況，我們當時的情況就是這樣的。

And to your question about is it prudent to buy back shares and what about your payout and isn't it too high?

至於您問的回購股票是否明智，以及您的支出是否太高了？

I think it's important to note that we have a very strong liquidity position.

我認為值得注意的是，我們的流動性狀況非常強勁。

We had a benefit from 2024 on a tax payment that we will pay in '25.

從 2024 年開始，我們將獲得稅金福利，這些稅金將於 2025 年繳納。

But if you push that tax payment back into 2024, we're actually generating more cash in '25 than we did in '24.

但如果將納稅推遲到 2024 年，我們 25 年產生的現金實際上會比 24 年更多。

Strong liquidity with access to capital.

流動性強，能夠獲取資本。

From a dividend payout perspective, we're targeting 50% of earnings, and we're higher than that.

從股息支付角度來看，我們的目標是收益的 50％，而且實際上會高於這個數字。

It's important to note, however, that it's distorted because of the below-the-line non-cash pension expense.

但值得注意的是，由於低於標準的非現金退休金支出，這項數據被扭曲了。

And if you ignore the non-cash pension expense, the payout ratio isn't as high as it appears at its base..

如果忽略非現金退休金支出，派息率並不像其基礎上看起來那麼高。

So plenty of liquidity to pay the dividend.

因此有足夠的流動性來支付股利。

And on the share repurchases, the way we're thinking about it today is our compensation plans are dilutive from an EPS perspective.

關於股票回購，我們今天的想法是，從每股盈餘的角度來看，我們的薪酬計畫具有稀釋性。

So $1 billion just basically protects the dilution.

因此，10 億美元基本上可以防止股權稀釋。

What Brian and I have talked about is, why don't we debt finance that?

我和布萊恩討論的是，為什麼我們不透過債務融資來解決這個問題？

Because with the yield on the stock and the after-tax cost of the debt, it's a really good trade because the after tax cost of debt is slower than the yield on the stock.

因為考慮到股票收益率和稅後債務成本，這是一筆非常好的交易，因為稅後債務成本的成長速度低於股票收益率。

So that's what we're thinking about in terms of how we would fund a share repurchase.

這就是我們正在考慮的如何為股票回購提供資金。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And Greg, we have time for one more question.

格雷格，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

喬納森·查佩爾（Jonathan Chappell），Evercore ISI。

Thank you, good morning.

謝謝，早安。

Just a quick market one.

只是一個快速的市場。

I understand that [you implemented] the GRI for SurePost.

我了解你們為 SurePost 實作了 GRI。

Brian, you talked about strong RPP growth of 6% for U.S. Domestic, which is obviously going to be a big mix impact as well.

布萊恩，您談到了美國國內 RPP 強勁增長 6%，這顯然也會產生巨大的影響。

We're kind of hearing in the market, and Carol highlighted the -- some of the challenges on kind of core volume of some pricing pressure overall just on core organic business.

我們聽到了市場上的一些聲音，卡羅爾強調了核心有機業務面臨的一些定價壓力等核心業務量方面的挑戰。

Are you seeing any of that?

你看到這些了嗎？

Is there a little bit more competitive spirit out there, I guess, to kind of maintain or grow share just given some of the challenges in the core markets?

考慮到核心市場面臨的一些挑戰，我猜，是否存在更強的競爭精神，以維持或增加份額？

I think our fourth quarter results are proof positive of the strength of our pricing approach.

我認為我們第四季度的業績充分證明了我們的定價方法的有效性。

We had very strong keep rates on our base rates as well as our holiday demand surcharge.

我們的基本費率和假日需求附加費維持得非常強勁。

Our GRI on our core business is 5.9% for 2025.

我們核心業務的 2025 年 GRI 為 5.9%。

We're going to keep probably 50% of that.

我們大概會保留其中的50%。

So the 6% RPP growth, you can break it down one-third, can't you, Brian?

因此，您可以把 6% 的 RPP 成長率分解為三分之一，不是嗎，布萊恩？

Why don't you go and do that.

為什麼不去做那件事呢？

That's right.

這是正確的。

So if you think about where that comes from, Carol's exactly right. it's about one-third from the strong base rates.

所以如果你想想這從何而來，卡羅爾是完全正確的。它約為強勁基準利率的三分之一。

And look, I’ll be honest with you -- there's nothing sexy about it.

瞧，我會誠實地告訴你──它沒有什麼性感之處。

This is a grind, and Matt and I spend every Monday morning going through how we're seeing the market evolve, the pricing and looking at how customers are performing.

這是一件苦差事，馬特和我每個星期一早上都要研究市場的發展、定價以及觀察客戶的表現。

And we've created a lot of discipline around that.

我們針對這一點制定了很多紀律。

It's a rational pricing environment, but we're getting really smart about how we do it, and that helps us get the key for that.

這是一個合理的定價環境，但我們在如何定價方面變得越來越聰明，這有助於我們找到關鍵。

Matt, I'll let you elaborate on it one second.

馬特，我讓你詳細說明一下。

On the mix -- on the other pieces, though, you've got one-third that base rates, you've got one-third, that's customer mix driven, right?

就組合而言 - 就其他部分而言，有三分之一是基本利率，有三分之一是由客戶組合驅動的，對嗎？

So as Carol said, our focus on SMB is allowing us to win there.

正如卡羅爾所說，我們對中小企業的關注使我們在那裡取得了成功。

And when you look at it, we won through peak and SMBs, and we also won through peak on premium products, right, which is the other one-third of the rev per piece improvement.

如果你看一下，你會發現我們透過高峰和 SMB 贏得了勝利，我們也透過高端產品的高峰贏得了勝利，對吧，這是每件產品收益提高的另外三分之一。

Matt, do you want to add anything?

馬特，你還有什麼要補充嗎？

I think you hit on 2 points that are important.

我認為你指出了兩點重要的觀點。

One is we just saw a lot of rigor and discipline behind the pricing, our practicing practices here, and we'll continue that.

一是我們看到定價背後的實踐非常嚴格和紀律，我們會繼續這樣做。

To Brian's point, it is an interesting step because in Q4, we really leaned in on the premium segment. 60% of our wins in Q4 were in the premium segment, and that's focused on the products that value our end-to-end network, what Carol highlighted as complex.

正如布萊恩所說，這是一個有趣的舉措，因為在第四季度，我們真正傾向於高端市場。我們在第四季度的勝利有 60% 是在高端市場，這主要集中在重視我們的端到端網路的產品上，Carol 強調了這一點，認為它很複雜。

The last thing I would just highlight is look, we've talked to you about Architecture of Tomorrow, which is our pricing technology, and we've talked to you about Deal Manager, which allows us the ability to leverage pricing signs for SMB, is now with Deal Manager, it's in the fourth quarter, 96% of our deals, we've been able to price up to $10 million, all came through Deal Manager, which allows us speed, we can turn time and we can customize them unique for the customer.

最後我想強調的是，我們已經和你討論過未來的架構，這是我們的定價技術，我們也和你討論過 Deal Manager，它使我們能夠利用定價標誌為中小企業提供服務，現在有了Deal Manager，在第四季度，我們的96% 的交易，我們已經能夠定價高達1000 萬美元，全部透過Deal Manager 進行，這讓我們能夠加快速度，可以調整時間，並且可以定制它們對顧客來說是獨一無二的。

So it's given us a lot of flexibility to drive the right value for our customers, but also align our costs and our prices there.

因此，它給了我們很大的靈活性，不僅可以為我們的客戶提供正確的價值，還可以調整我們的成本和價格。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I will now turn the floor back over to your host, Mr. PJ Guido.

現在我將發言權交還給主持人 PJ Guido 先生。

Thank you, Greg.

謝謝你，格雷格。

This concludes our call.

我們的通話到此結束。

Thank you for joining and have a great day.

感謝您的加入並祝您有愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Teleconference.

感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。