聯合包裹運送服務公司 (UPS) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Matthew, and I will be your facilitator today. I'd like to welcome everyone to the UPS second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. PJ Guido, Investor Relations Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

早安.我叫馬修，今天我將擔任你們的主持人。歡迎大家參加 UPS 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人、投資者關係官 PJ Guido 先生。先生，請您發言。

Good morning, and welcome to the UPS second quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining me today are Carol Tomé, our CEO; Brian Dykes, our CFO; and a few additional members of our executive leadership team. Before we begin, I want to remind you that some of the comments we'll make today are forward-looking statements and address our expectations for the future performance or operating results of our company.

早上好，歡迎參加 UPS 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有我們的執行長 Carol Tomé、我們的財務長 Brian Dykes 以及我們執行領導團隊的其他幾位成員。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們今天發表的一些評論是前瞻性的陳述，涉及我們對公司未來業績或經營業績的期望。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are described in our 2024 Form 10-K and other reports we file with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports, when filed, are available on the UPS Investor Relations website and from the SEC.

這些聲明受風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性在我們的 2024 年 10-K 表格以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交或提供的其他報告中有所描述。這些報告提交後可在 UPS 投資者關係網站和美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 查閱。

Unless stated otherwise, our discussion refers to adjusted results. For the second quarter of 2025, GAAP results include a net charge of $29 million or $0.04 per diluted share, comprised of after-tax transformation strategy costs of $57 million, which were partially offset by a $15 million gain from the divestiture of the business within Supply Chain Solutions and a $13 million benefit from the partial reversal of an income tax valuation allowance.

除非另有說明，我們的討論是指調整後的結果。2025 年第二季度，GAAP 結果包括 2,900 萬美元的淨費用或每股 0.04 美元，其中包括 5,700 萬美元的稅後轉型策略成本，但部分被供應鏈解決方案業務剝離帶來的 1,500 萬美元收益和部分逆轉所得稅估值準備金帶來的 1,300 萬美元收益所抵銷。

A reconciliation of non-GAAP adjusted amounts to GAAP financial results is available in today's webcast materials. These materials are also available on the UPS Investor Relations website. Following our prepared remarks, we will take questions from those joining us via the teleconference. (Operator Instructions)

今天的網路廣播資料中提供了非 GAAP 調整金額與 GAAP 財務結果的對帳表。這些資料也可在 UPS 投資者關係網站上找到。在我們準備好發言之後，我們將回答透過電話會議加入我們的人士的提問。（操作員指示）

And now I'll turn the call over to Carol.

現在我將把電話轉給卡羅爾。

Thank you, PJ, and good morning. To begin, I want to thank all UPSers for their hard work and efforts as we've made material progress against the strategic actions we laid out in January. Those actions include accelerating the glide down of Amazon volume, transitioning our ground saver product, and generating savings through our Efficiency Reimagined initiatives.

謝謝你，PJ，早安。首先，我要感謝所有 UPS 員工的辛勤工作和努力，我們在 1 月制定的策略行動方面取得了實質進展。這些措施包括加速亞馬遜貨運量的下滑、轉變我們的地面節省產品以及透過我們的效率重塑計劃實現節約。

During the quarter, our team of dedicated UPSers remained focused on execution while keeping supply chains moving and delivering best-in-class service. Our second quarter financial results reflect the impact of a complex macro environment, driven by ever evolving trade policies, as well as the significant actions we are taking to strengthen UPS's competitive and financial positioning.

在本季度，我們敬業的 UPS 團隊繼續專注於執行，同時保持供應鏈運作並提供一流的服務。我們第二季的財務表現反映了複雜的宏觀環境的影響，這種影響是由不斷變化的貿易政策以及我們為加強 UPS 的競爭力和財務地位而採取的重大行動所驅動的。

Looking at our second quarter results. Consolidated revenue was $21.2 billion. Consolidated operating profit was $1.9 billion, and consolidated operating margin was 8.8%. As Brian will provide more detail regarding our financial results, I'd like to comment on what we are seeing from a business climate perspective and then spend my time talking about the progress we are making on our strategic actions.

看看我們的第二季業績。綜合收入為212億美元。綜合營業利潤為 19 億美元，綜合營業利益率為 8.8%。由於布萊恩將提供有關我們財務表現的更多細節，我想從商業環境的角度評論一下我們所看到的情況，然後花點時間談談我們在策略行動上的進展。

So first, our thoughts on the business climate. Despite uncertainties around trade policies, in the second quarter, the overall US economy demonstrated continued resilience, but our sector, specifically the US small package market was unfavorably impacted by US consumer sentiment that was near historic lows.

首先，我們對商業環境的看法。儘管貿易政策存在不確定性，但第二季度美國整體經濟仍表現出持續的韌性，但我們的行業，特別是美國小包裝市場受到接近歷史低點的美國消費者信心的不利影響。

A recent research report from McKinsey showed that in the face of tariffs and other uncertainties, consumers are trading down, while at the same time, splurging. For the first time in three years, consumer spending on discretionary categories like restaurants and automobiles, outpaced growth in essential items.

麥肯錫最近的一份研究報告顯示，面對關稅和其他不確定因素，消費者在降低消費水準的同時，也揮霍消費。三年來，消費者在餐廳和汽車等非必需品類別上的支出首次超過了必需品的成長。

And on the commercial side of the economy, manufacturing activity in the US remains soft. These macroeconomic dynamics impacted overall market demand as well as demand by customer segment and product. In the quarter, our overall US average daily volume declined by 7.3%. But due to our strategic actions, we saw a positive shift in the mix of business, as revenue declined by just 0.8%.

從經濟商業角度來看，美國製造業活動依然疲軟。這些宏觀經濟動態影響了整體市場需求以及客戶群和產品的需求。本季度，我們在美國的整體每日平均交易量下降了 7.3%。但由於我們的策略行動，我們看到業務組合發生了積極變化，收入僅下降了 0.8%。

Moving to the business climate outside of the US, Trade follows policy and generally, tariffs are not good for trade. With the announcement of certain changes to trade policies in the second quarter, we saw that play out. For example, looking at our China to US trade lane and increased tariff and the elimination of de minimis exception resulted in a year-over-year drop in average daily volume of 34.8% for the month of May and June.

轉向美國以外的商業環境，貿易遵循政策，一般來說，關稅不利於貿易。隨著第二季貿易政策某些變化的宣布，我們看到了這種情況的發生。例如，從中國到美國的貿易航線來看，由於關稅上調以及最低限度例外的取消，5 月和 6 月的日均貨運量較去年同期下降了 34.8%。

Our China to US trade lane is our most profitable trade lane, and the volume decline here pressured our international operating margin. But it's important to remember that with policy changes, trade doesn't stop, it moves.

中國至美國的貿易航線是我們最賺錢的貿易航線，該航線的貨運量下降給我們的國際營業利潤率帶來了壓力。但重要的是要記住，隨著政策的變化，貿易不會停止，而是會繼續發展。

Given our global integrated network, we are well positioned to service these moves. As an example, in the second quarter, we saw volume in our China to the rest of the world trade lanes, increase by 22.4%, and we nearly doubled our capacity between India and Europe to meet the growing export demand on that trade lane.

憑藉我們全球一體化的網絡，我們有能力為這些措施提供服務。例如，在第二季度，我們看到中國至世界其他地區的貿易航線的運量增長了 22.4%，我們將印度和歐洲之間的運力幾乎翻了一番，以滿足該貿易航線日益增長的出口需求。

Further, with the investments we've made in brokerage capabilities, in the second quarter, nearly 90% of all cross-border transactions were processed digitally. Given our proven trade expertise and vast global network, our customers are coming to us for solutions that will help them navigate tariff uncertainty.

此外，由於我們在經紀能力方面的投資，第二季近 90% 的跨國交易都是以數位方式處理的。鑑於我們久經考驗的貿易專業知識和龐大的全球網絡，我們的客戶紛紛向我們尋求解決方案，以幫助他們應對關稅不確定性。

In fact, so far this year, we've engaged in over 600 supply chain mapping assessments to help customers visualize, evaluate and optimize their global supply chains, including looking at opportunities for nearshoring.

事實上，今年到目前為止，我們已經進行了 600 多次供應鏈映射評估，以幫助客戶視覺化、評估和優化他們的全球供應鏈，包括尋找近岸外包的機會。

Speaking of nearshoring, last year, we announced our plan to acquire Estafeta, a Mexican logistics company, clearing regulatory and pre-closing conditions is turning out to be a slow process, but we continue to be bullish on the opportunity here.

說到近岸外包，去年我們宣布了收購墨西哥物流公司 Estafeta 的計劃，雖然清理監管和交割前條件的過程比較緩慢，但我們仍然看好這一機會。

Growing our international small package business remains a strategic priority for us, and we see an opportunity for outpaced growth in this $99 billion addressable market. In our Supply Chain Solutions business, Global Freight Forwarding was also impacted by changes in trade policies with revenue falling more than we expected. This softness was partially offset by solid growth in our digital and health care subsidiaries as we continue to build out those businesses.

發展我們的國際小包裹業務仍然是我們的策略重點，我們看到了這個價值 990 億美元的潛在市場實現超額成長的機會。在我們的供應鏈解決方案業務中，全球貨運代理也受到貿易政策變化的影響，收入下降幅度超出我們的預期。隨著我們繼續拓展數位和醫療保健子公司的業務，其穩健成長部分抵消了這種疲軟。

Now to an update on our strategic actions. First, our Amazon glide down efforts are, for the most part, proceeding as planned. In concert with our network reconfiguration efforts, so far this year, we've closed 74 buildings. Each building had a closing checklist of over 1,000 steps, and I'm happy to report that the closures went smoothly with minimal issues.

現在來更新一下我們的策略行動。首先，我們的亞馬遜滑行工作基本上按計劃進行。配合我們的網路重構工作，今年到目前為止，我們已經關閉了 74 棟建築。每棟建築的關閉清單都超過 1,000 個步驟，我很高興地報告，關閉過程進展順利，問題很少。

From a staffing perspective, our attrition rate was lower than we anticipated, which resulted in higher expense than we planned. From a part-time hourly position perspective, we believe most of this will correct over time. Further, we've announced a voluntary separation program for all full-time US drivers. We've seen a lot of interest in the program so far, and participating drivers will leave UPS starting at the end of August.

從人員配備角度來看，我們的人員流失率低於預期，導致費用高於計畫。從兼職小時工職位的角度來看，我們相信大部分這種情況都會隨著時間的推移而得到糾正。此外，我們也宣布了針對所有美國全職司機的自願離職計劃。到目前為止，我們看到很多人對該計劃感興趣，參與的司機將於 8 月底離開 UPS。

Finally, while our plans are not completed, in concert with the Amazon volume decline, we will be closing more buildings and sorts during the back half of this year. As we told you last quarter, this year, we expect to remove approximately $3.5 billion in expense from our base business. Part of this effort rests with our efficiency reimagined initiatives, which launched in the first quarter and accelerated in the second quarter.

最後，雖然我們的計劃尚未完成，但隨著亞馬遜業務量的下降，我們將在今年下半年關閉更多的建築物和分類。正如我們上個季度告訴您的那樣，今年，我們預計將從基礎業務中削減約 35 億美元的支出。這項努力的一部分在於我們重新構想的效率計劃，該計劃於第一季啟動，並在第二季加速推進。

With efficiency Reimagined, we are redesigning end-to-end processes to drive savings, like a new global payment strategy. Here, we've centralized how we make and receive payments under a digital first strategy, which will drive efficiency for UPS and improve the customer experience.

透過“效率重塑”，我們正在重新設計端到端流程以推動節約，例如新的全球支付策略。在這裡，我們根據數位優先策略集中了付款和收款方式，這將提高 UPS 的效率並改善客戶體驗。

Second, during the quarter, we took a hard look at our economy product, we call Ground Saver. For UPS, we believe Ground Saver should be a product that complements an array of products used by our customers, and not be a product just by itself.

其次，在本季度，我們認真審視了我們的經濟型產品，我們稱之為 Ground Saver。對於 UPS，我們相信 Ground Saver 應該是對客戶所使用的一系列產品進行補充的產品，而不是僅僅作為一款獨立的產品。

During the quarter, we took deliberate pricing actions to manage our Ground Saver volume. And as a result, the volume in this product declined by 23% year-over-year. A small portion of the volume decline was directly related to our Amazon glide down plan, and the rest was primarily related to volume declines from non-US-based e-commerce companies.

在本季度，我們採取了審慎的定價措施來管理我們的 Ground Saver 銷售。結果，該產品的銷量較去年同期下降了23%。交易量下降的一小部分與我們的亞馬遜下滑計畫直接相關，其餘部分主要與非美國電子商務公司的交易量下降有關。

As you will recall, at the end of last year, we in-sourced from the USPS, the last-mile delivery of our Ground Saver product. This decision, while right for the customer experience, pressured our financial results as delivery expenses were somewhat higher than we anticipated. We are working on solutions to relieve this pressure in the back half of the year.

您可能還記得，去年年底，我們從美國郵政署 (USPS) 引進了 Ground Saver 產品的最後一英里遞送服務。這項決定雖然有利於客戶體驗，但卻給我們的財務表現帶來了壓力，因為運輸費用比我們預期的要高一些。我們正在研究解決方案，以緩解下半年的這種壓力。

Before I wrap up, I want to touch on a positive in our business, and that's health care logistics. Health care Logistics remains a key driver of growth for all three of our business segments. Complex health care logistics is an $82 billion addressable market, and we are laser focused on becoming the number 1 complex health care logistics provider in the world. To that end, we are leading radio pharma logistics globally and in addition, lead US integrators in terms of CEIV certified cold chain cross-dock building.

在結束之前，我想談談我們業務中的一個積極方面，那就是醫療保健物流。醫療保健物流仍然是我們三個業務部門成長的主要驅動力。複雜的醫療保健物流是一個價值 820 億美元的潛在市場，我們致力於成為全球第一的複雜醫療保健物流提供者。為此，我們在全球範圍內引領放射性製藥物流，此外，還在 CEIV 認證的冷鏈交叉轉運建設方面引領美國整合商。

Along with growing health care organically, we remain committed to inorganic growth, too, like with our previously announced planned acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group. Andlauer supports our focus on complex health care and will enhance our cold chain and pharmaceutical transportation capabilities in the Canadian and US markets. We expect this acquisition to close before the end of the year.

除了醫療保健的有機成長之外，我們還致力於無機成長，例如我們先前宣布的收購安德勞爾醫療集團 (Andlauer Healthcare Group) 的計劃。Andlauer 支持我們專注於複雜的醫療保健，並將增強我們在加拿大和美國市場的冷鍊和藥品運輸能力。我們預計此次收購將於今年年底前完成。

Now moving to our outlook. For our sector, this remains a very unsettling time. Changes in trade policy have not been cemented and the impact on customer demand and the overall economy is unknown. While our customers who have scale may be able to thwart the impact of rising costs due to tariffs, many of our SMB customers may not. Further, peak plans have not yet been submitted by our customers, which is an indication that they too are having difficulty in forecasting demand for the holiday selling season.

現在轉向我們的展望。對於我們這個行業來說，這仍然是一個非常動盪的時期。貿易政策的變化尚未確定，對客戶需求和整體經濟的影響尚不清楚。雖然我們有規模的客戶可能能夠抵禦關稅導致的成本上漲的影響，但我們的許多中小企業客戶可能無法做到這一點。此外，我們的客戶尚未提交高峰計劃，這表明他們也難以預測假日銷售季的需求。

Given that, we are not providing any forward-looking revenue or earnings guidance. But as Brian will detail, we are focusing on what is within our control, which is the Amazon volume glide down plan, the execution of our network reconfiguration and ongoing efforts to drive productivity.

有鑑於此，我們不提供任何前瞻性的收入或獲利預測。但正如布萊恩所詳述的，我們專注於我們能夠控制的事情，即亞馬遜銷售下滑計劃、網路重新配置的執行以及持續提高生產力的努力。

As I wrap up, I want to touch on our financial position. UPS is rock solid strong and so is our dividend. The UPS dividend is backed by solid free cash flow and a strong investment-grade balance sheet. We know how important the dividend is to our investors, and you have our commitment to a stable and growing dividend.

最後，我想談談我們的財務狀況。UPS 堅如磐石，我們的股息也是如此。UPS 股息受到穩健的自由現金流和強勁的投資等級資產負債表的支持。我們知道股息對我們的投資者來說有多重要，我們承諾提供穩定且不斷增長的股息。

In closing, over the past five years, we've operated in a dynamic and complex world. Today's world is the same, complex and dynamic. So we would argue that the dynamics impacting today's marketplace are very different than the dynamics caused by the pandemic or high inflation or labor disruptions or war. Changes in trade policies are impacting global trade and demand. It will likely all settle down at some point.

最後，過去五年來，我們一直生活在一個充滿活力和複雜的世界。當今世界依然如此，複雜多變。因此，我們認為，影響當今市場的動態與流行病、高通膨、勞動力中斷或戰爭造成的動態截然不同。貿易政策的變化正在影響全球貿易和需求。一切可能最終都會平息下來。

But for now, it is a very volatile environment. But we're not letting this knock us off our strategic plan. At UPS, we are proactively taking action to put our company on a much stronger footing and position our company well for the future.

但就目前而言，環境非常不穩定。但我們不會讓此事打亂我們的戰略計劃。在 UPS，我們正在積極採取行動，使公司的基礎更加穩固，並為公司的未來做好充分的準備。

We are focused on serving our customers, growing in the more complex and economically attractive parts of the market, and creating value for our shareowners. Our founder Jim Casey said, "our horizon is as distant as our mind's eye wishes it to be". We've got our eyes on the future.

我們專注於服務客戶，在更複雜、更具經濟吸引力的市場領域中發展，並為股東創造價值。我們的創辦人吉姆‧凱西 (Jim Casey) 說過，「我們的視野有多遠，我們的心靈之眼就有多遠」。我們著眼於未來。

So with that, thank you for listening. And now I'll turn the call over to Brian.

謝謝大家的聆聽。現在我將把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thank you, Carol, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I'll cover three areas. Starting with our second quarter results, then I'll discuss progress with the Amazon volume glide down, our network reconfiguration efforts and our efficiency reimagined initiatives. Lastly, I'll comment on our capital allocation priorities for the year.

謝謝你，卡羅爾，大家早安。今天上午，我將講三個方面。從我們的第二季業績開始，然後我將討論亞馬遜銷量下滑的進展、我們的網路重新配置工作以及我們的效率重塑計劃。最後，我將評論我們今年的資本配置重點。

Moving to our results. Starting with our consolidated performance. In the second quarter, revenue was $21.2 billion, and operating profit was $1.9 billion. Consolidated operating margin was 8.8%. Diluted earnings per share were $1.55.

轉向我們的結果。從我們的綜合業績開始。第二季營收212億美元，營業利潤19億美元。綜合營業利益率為8.8%。每股攤薄收益為 1.55 美元。

Now moving to our segment performance and starting with US domestic. Through our Amazon volume glide down strategy, we are shifting the mix of our US business. We are laser focused on improving revenue quality and the changes we are making are beginning to show up in our results.

現在轉向我們的分部表現，從美國國內開始。透過我們的亞馬遜銷售下滑策略，我們正在改變美國業務的結構。我們專注於提高收入質量，我們所做的改變已開始在業績中顯現。

For the quarter, total US average daily volume was down 7.3% primarily driven by our planned glide down of Amazon volume and revenue quality efforts. Total air average daily volume was down 11.6%. When excluding Amazon, total air ADV increased 1.4%, driven by health care and high-tech customers. Ground average daily volume was down 6.6% year-over-year, and within ground, Ground Saver ADV declined 23.3%, primarily due to the pricing actions we took on e-commerce volume.

本季度，美國日均交易總量下降 7.3%，主要原因是我們計劃降低亞馬遜的交易量和收入品質。航空運輸日均運輸量下降11.6%。不包括亞馬遜，受醫療保健和高科技客戶的推動，航空運輸總日均交易量增加了 1.4%。地面平均日交易量年減 6.6%，其中，地面節省日交易量下降 23.3%，這主要是因為我們對電子商務量採取了定價措施。

In the second quarter, Ground Saver made up the smallest portion of our total ground volume that we've seen in two years. This shift is a proof point showing positive product mix improvement. In terms of customer mix, ADV growth within our small and medium-sized customers was lower than we anticipated. Year-over-year, the SMB growth rate was flat. However, we saw some bright spots in SMB health care, manufacturing and automotive.

在第二季度，Ground Saver 在我們總地面運輸量中所佔的比例是兩年來最小的。這種轉變是產品組合正向改善的證明。從客戶結構來看，中小型客戶的日均營業額成長低於我們的預期。與去年同期相比，中小企業成長率持平。然而，我們在中小企業醫療保健、製造業和汽車業也看到了一些亮點。

In the second quarter, SMBs made up 32% of total US volume, a 230 basis point improvement compared to last year. Looking at enterprise customers. Excluding Amazon, average daily volume was down 10.4% versus last year due to a combination of our revenue quality actions and overall softness in the market.

第二季度，中小企業占美國總交易量的 32%，比去年同期提高了 230 個基點。放眼企業客戶。不包括亞馬遜，由於我們的收入品質行動和整體市場疲軟，日均交易量較去年下降了 10.4%。

For the quarter, B2B average daily volume finished down 2.3% compared to last year due to softness in manufacturing activity. B2C average daily volume was down 10.9% year-over-year primarily due to the actions we took to improve revenue quality. B2B represented 43.7% of our US volume, which was a 220 basis point improvement versus last year.

本季，由於製造業活動疲軟，B2B 日均交易量較去年同期下降 2.3%。B2C 日均交易量較去年同期下降 10.9%，主要原因是我們採取措施提高收入品質。B2B 業務占我們美國業務量的 43.7%，比去年提高了 220 個基點。

Moving to revenue. For the second quarter, US domestic generated revenue of $14.1 billion, which was down slightly to last year, mainly due to the decline in Amazon revenue, which was partially offset by increases in air cargo and revenue per piece.

轉向收入。第二季度，美國國內營收為 141 億美元，較去年略有下降，主要原因是亞馬遜營收下降，但空運和每件收入的增加部分抵消了這一影響。

In the second quarter, revenue per piece increased 5.5% year-over-year, breaking down the components of the 5.5% revenue per piece improvement. The net impact of base rates and package characteristics increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 250 basis points. Customer and product mix improvements increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 200 basis points. Lastly, fuel drove a 100 basis point increase in the revenue per piece growth rate.

第二季度，每件營收年增5.5%，細分每件營收成長5.5%的組成部分。基本費率和包裝特性的淨影響使每件收入成長率提高了 250 個基點。客戶和產品組合的改進使每件收入成長率提高了 200 個基點。最後，燃料推動每件營收成長率增加 100 個基點。

Turning to costs. Total expense in the second quarter was flat compared to last year, including an increase in air cargo. Looking at cost per piece, it increased 5.6%. This was primarily due to the short-term pressure we experienced from some of our Ground Saver volume as well as the timing of employee attrition associated with our network reconfiguration. The US Domestic segment delivered $982 million in operating profit and operating margin was 7%.

談到成本。第二季的總支出與去年同期持平，其中空運費用增加。從每件成本來看，增加了5.6%。這主要是因為我們的部分 Ground Saver 業務量給我們帶來了短期壓力，以及與我們的網路重新配置相關的員工流失時間。美國國內部門實現營業利潤 9.82 億美元，營業利益率為 7%。

Moving to our International segment. As Carol mentioned, the trade patterns we anticipated played out about as we expected, but the magnitudes were different, particularly in May when the tariff changes and the de minimis exclusion for products from China took effect.

轉向我們的國際部分。正如卡羅爾所提到的，我們預期的貿易模式與我們預期的差不多，但幅度有所不同，特別是在 5 月份，關稅變化和針對中國產品的最低限度豁免生效。

In the second quarter, total international ADV increased 3.9%, with all regions growing average daily volume versus last year. International domestic average daily volume increased 1.5% compared to last year, led by Canada.

第二季度，國際日均交易量總額成長 3.9%，所有地區的每日平均交易量均比去年同期成長。其中，以加拿大為首的國際國內日均運輸量較去年同期成長了 1.5%。

On the export side, average daily volume increased 6.1% year-over-year. US trade policy changes during the quarter resulted in a 34.8% decline on our China to US lane in May and June, which was higher than we expected. Partially offsetting this decline in the second quarter, we saw growth of over 20% out of China to the rest of the world.

出口方面，日均出口量較去年同期成長6.1%。本季美國貿易政策的變化導致我們5月和6月中國至美國的航線下降了34.8%，下降幅度高於我們的預期。我們看到中國向世界其他地區的成長超過 20%，部分抵銷了第二季的下降。

At UPS, we run our global network with agility. This allows us to pivot into areas of opportunity and reduce costs in areas under pressure. With service in over 200 countries, we are where our customers need us to be. During the second quarter, we made over 100 adjustments to add or cancel flights in our Asia, Europe and US international lanes as our customers responded to changing tariffs and adjusted their supply chain.

在 UPS，我們靈活地經營我們的全球網路。這使我們能夠轉向機會領域並降低壓力領域的成本。我們的業務範圍涵蓋 200 多個國家，只要客戶需要，我們就會去那裡。在第二季度，由於客戶對不斷變化的運價做出反應並調整了供應鏈，我們對亞洲、歐洲和美國國際航線的航班進行了 100 多次調整，增加或取消了航班。

Turning to revenue. In the second quarter, international revenue was $4.5 billion, up 2.6% from last year. Revenue per piece declined year-over-year due to geography mix and lower demand-related surcharges. Operating profit in the International segment was $682 million, down $142 million year-over-year, reflecting pressure from trade lane shifts, product trade down, lower demand-related surcharges and the investments we are making to expand weekend services in Europe. International operating margin in the second quarter was 15.2%.

談到收入。第二季度，國際營收為45億美元，比去年同期成長2.6%。由於地理分佈和需求相關附加費較低，每件收入較去年同期下降。國際部門的營業利潤為 6.82 億美元，年減 1.42 億美元，反映了貿易航線轉移、產品貿易下降、需求相關附加費降低以及我們為擴大歐洲週末服務所做的投資帶來的壓力。第二季國際營業利益率為15.2%。

Moving to Supply Chain Solutions. In the second quarter, revenue was $2.7 billion, lower than last year by $594 million. 90% of the decrease in revenue was due to our divestiture of Coyote in the third quarter of 2024.

轉向供應鏈解決方案。第二季營收為27億美元，較去年同期減少5.94億美元，其中90%的營收減少是由於我們在2024年第三季剝離了Coyote。

Within Supply Chain Solutions, air and ocean forwarding revenue was down year-over-year, the decline in the air and ocean freight was driven by changes in tariffs, resulting in demand softness and lower market rates. Health care logistics grew revenue by 5.7% and UPS Digital, including Roadie and Happy Returns, grew revenue 26.4% year-over-year.

在供應鏈解決方案中，空運和海運收入較去年同期下降，空運和海運收入的下降是由於關稅變化導致需求疲軟和市場價格下降。醫療保健物流收入成長了 5.7%，包括 Roadie 和 Happy Returns 在內的 UPS Digital 收入年增了 26.4%。

Lastly, in the second quarter, we adjusted our process for how we handle volume in Mail Innovations, improving the profitability of this business. In the second quarter, Supply Chain Solutions generated operating profit of $212 million. Operating margin was 8%.

最後，在第二季度，我們調整了郵件創新業務的處理流程，提高了該業務的獲利能力。第二季度，供應鏈解決方案業務實現營業利潤2.12億美元。營業利益率為8%。

Turning to cash and shareowner returns. Year-to-date, we generated $2.7 billion in cash from operations and free cash flow was $742 million. In the second quarter, we made voluntary pension contributions, accelerated investments related to our network reconfiguration and experienced temporary working capital pressure primarily due to changes in tariffs. We expect these will normalize in the second half of the year. We finished the quarter with strong liquidity and no outstanding commercial paper. And so far this year, UPS has paid $2.7 billion in dividends.

轉向現金和股東回報。年初至今，我們的營運現金流為 27 億美元，自由現金流為 7.42 億美元。在第二季度，我們自願繳納退休金，加快了與網路重構相關的投資，並且主要由於關稅變化而經歷了暫時的營運資金壓力。我們預計這些情況將在今年下半年恢復正常。本季結束時，我們的流動性強勁，沒有未償還的商業票據。今年迄今為止，UPS 已支付了 27 億美元的股息。

Now let me provide an update on our cost out and network reconfiguration efforts. Related to our Amazon volume reduction actions, we are removing approximately $3.5 billion in cost this year while undertaking the largest network reconfiguration in our history.

現在讓我提供有關我們的成本和網路重新配置工作的最新情況。與我們亞馬遜業務量減少的行動有關，我們今年將削減約 35 億美元的成本，同時進行我們歷史上最大規模的網路重建。

On our last earnings call, we shared a tracker to help you see our savings progress. Here, we've grouped the associated cost savings in the three buckets. Variable costs, which primarily captures operational hours, semi-variable costs, which reflects operational positions, and fixed costs, which includes closing buildings and reducing expense from support functions through our efficiency reimagined initiatives.

在我們上次的收益電話會議上，我們分享了一個追蹤器，以幫助您了解我們的儲蓄進度。在這裡，我們將相關的成本節省分為三類。變動成本主要體現在營運時間、半變動成本反映營運狀況，以及固定成本，包括關閉建築物和透過我們重新構想的效率措施減少支援職能部門的開支。

Amazon's average daily volume rate of decline in the second quarter was a little lower than we expected, which followed the first quarter where their ADV rate of decline was higher than we expected. When looking at the first six months of 2025, Amazon's ADV declined 13% compared to last year. Now that we are in the second half of the year, we expect to accelerate the pace of Amazon volume decline to approximately 30% year-over-year in each of the third quarters and fourth quarters.

亞馬遜第二季的日均交易量下降率略低於我們的預期，而第一季的日均交易量下降率高於我們的預期。縱觀 2025 年上半年，亞馬遜的日均交易量與去年相比下降了 13%。現在已進入下半年，我們預計亞馬遜第三季和第四季的銷售下降速度將加快，年減約 30%。

Now let's look at the progress with our network reconfiguration and efforts to remove expense associated with the Amazon volume decline. Starting with variable costs. Total operational hours paced down with volume in the first half of the year, and we are on track to reach our reduction target of approximately 25 million hours this year.

現在讓我們看看我們的網路重新配置的進展以及消除與亞馬遜交易量下降相關的費用的努力。從變動成本開始。今年上半年，總營運小時數隨產量減少而減少，我們可望實現今年約 2,500 萬小時的減量目標。

Moving to semi-variable costs. Year-to-date operational positions have been reduced by nearly 9,500. As Carol mentioned, our attrition rate was lower than we anticipated. In terms of part timers, we expect the attrition rate to synchronize over time. For full-timers, we recently announced a voluntary separation program for all US drivers and one week into the offer, we are seeing a level of interest that's in line with our expectations.

轉向半變動成本。今年迄今，營運職位已減少近 9,500 個。正如卡羅爾所提到的，我們的流失率低於我們的預期。就兼職人員而言，我們預期流失率會隨著時間的推移而同步。對於全職司機，我們最近宣布了一項針對所有美國司機的自願離職計劃，該計劃實施一周後，我們看到了符合我們預期的興趣水平。

And then our fixed cost bucket, year-to-date, we've completed the closure of 155 operations, including closing 74 buildings. We continue to evaluate the network and the impact of the Amazon volume decline and expect to close additional buildings and operations in the back half of 2025. And while we've been rightsizing the network, we've also deployed additional automation to continue to drive efficiency.

然後是我們的固定成本桶，年初至今，我們已經完成了 155 個業務的關閉，包括關閉 74 棟建築。我們將繼續評估網路和亞馬遜銷售下降的影響，並預計在 2025 年下半年關閉更多建築物和營運。在我們不斷調整網路規模的同時，我們也部署了額外的自動化系統來持續提高效率。

Lastly, as Carol mentioned, savings from our efficiency reimagined initiative accelerated in the second quarter. Putting it all together, we remain on track to achieve our 2025 expense reduction target of about $3.5 billion. Partially offsetting this reduction is the higher-than-expected ground saver delivery expense.

最後，正如卡羅爾所提到的，我們效率重塑計畫帶來的節約在第二季加速實現。綜合起來，我們仍有望實現 2025 年約 35 億美元的費用削減目標。高於預期的地面節省運輸費用部分抵消了這一減少。

Moving to the rest of 2025. There's a lot of uncertainty right now due to tariff and trade changes and the potential impacts on consumer behavior is unknown. Because of this, we see a risk for greater variability in SMB and enterprise volume. Additionally, in the US, while we are confident in the strategic changes we are making with our network reconfiguration and revenue quality focus, two impactful changes remain uncertain.

進入 2025 年剩餘時間。由於關稅和貿易變化，目前存在許多不確定性，對消費者行為的潛在影響尚不清楚。因此，我們認為中小企業和大型企業的業務量有更大差異的風險。此外，在美國，雖然我們對網路重構和收入品質重點所做的策略變革充滿信心，但兩項有影響力的變革仍不確定。

First, the timing with implementing ground saver solutions is pending, and second is the full impact of the driver voluntary separation program and related take rate and departure date. For all these reasons, we are not providing any forward-looking revenue or operating profit guidance.

首先，實施地面節省解決方案的時機尚未確定，其次是司機自願離職計劃以及相關搭載率和出發日期的全面影響。基於所有這些原因，我們不提供任何前瞻性的收入或營業利潤指引。

Our expectation is that there will be more certainty at the end of the third quarter, and we will have a better read on peak and the timing and scale of these initiatives. We are, however, confirming our 2025 capital allocation expectations. We expect capital expenditures to be approximately $3.5 billion. We are planning to pay out around $5.5 billion in dividends, subject to Board approval, and we have completed the targeted repurchase of about $1 billion of our shares. Lastly, we expect tax rate to be approximately 23.5% for the full year 2025.

我們預計第三季末將會有更多的確定性，我們將對這些舉措的高峰以及時間和規模有更好的了解。然而，我們正在確認 2025 年的資本配置預期。我們預計資本支出約為 35 億美元。我們計劃支付約 55 億美元的股息，但需經董事會批准，並且我們已經完成了約 10 億美元股票的目標回購。最後，我們預計 2025 年全年稅率約為 23.5%。

So with that, operator, please open the lines for questions.

那麼，接線員，請打開熱線來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧佛農，伯恩斯坦。

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. This is Justine Weiss speaking on behalf of David Vernon. So I'm just wondering, is the lack of guidance in some ways a sign that things are worse? Or is this purely about things still being uncertain? And also, how do you feel about progress on cost cuts being enough to exit with domestic margins at double digits?

大家好。感謝您回答這些問題。我是賈斯汀·韋斯，代表大衛·佛農發言。所以我只是想知道，缺乏指導在某種程度上是否預示著情況變得更糟？或者這純粹是因為事情還不確定？另外，您認為成本削減的進度是否足以讓國內利潤率達到兩位數？

Well, Justine, thanks for your call and question. And I'll start with the rationalization for not providing guidance. First, we debated this a lot. But there's so much uncertainty out there. We are building scenarios and the range of the scenarios well it's wide enough to drive one of our 18 wheelers through. So we elected not to provide guidance. And let me tell you why.

好吧，賈斯汀，謝謝你的來電和提問。我首先要解釋一下不提供指導的原因。首先，我們對此進行了大量的辯論。但外面還有太多的不確定性。我們正在建造場景，場景的範圍足夠大，足以讓我們的一輛 18 輪卡車通過。因此我們選擇不提供指導。讓我來告訴你為什麼。

First, if I look at the volume in July, it's actually a bit better than what we've been seeing. But part of that in the United States anyway was influenced by Amazon Prime Day and other retailers who had similar like promotions. And so we're not sure that the volume in July is an indicator of the volume for the rest of the quarter.

首先，如果我看一下七月的交易量，它實際上比我們看到的要好一些。但無論如何，美國的部分促銷活動受到了亞馬遜 Prime Day 和其他零售商類似促銷活動的影響。因此，我們不確定 7 月的交易量是否能預示本季剩餘時間的交易量。

Further, the volume outside the United States was strong, too, but we believe that's because companies were purchasing inventory ahead of the August 1 tariffs. So July, while good, we don't think it's a predictor necessarily of the rest of the quarter. Why? Because of the uncertainty. As we look at the tariffs, there are a number of tariffs that are slated to go in on August 1. We don't know if that's going to happen or not.

此外，美國以外的交易量也很強勁，但我們認為這是因為該公司在 8 月 1 日關稅實施之前購買了庫存。因此，儘管 7 月表現良好，但我們認為它不一定能預測本季剩餘時間的表現。為什麼？因為不確定性。從關稅來看，有多項關稅將於 8 月 1 日生效。我們不知道這是否會發生。

There only have been six trade deals that have been negotiated. So there's a lot of uncertainty regarding the tariffs. As it relates to the China tariff, that agreement expires on August 12. Now it's a rumor that, that will be extended, but we don't know. And so there's uncertainty around tariffs and then there means less uncertainty around consumer demand.

目前為止，僅談判了六項貿易協定。因此，關稅方面存在著許多不確定性。由於與中國關稅有關，該協議將於 8 月 12 日到期。現在有傳言說，這個期限將會延長，但我們不知道。因此，關稅存在不確定性，而消費者需求的不確定性則減少。

So consider this. At the end of the first quarter, our customers had inventory and they sold that inventory down in the second quarter. They're now at a point where they need to replenish their inventory. And if you're an SMB customer sourcing from China alone, you could see that your cost could increase by 55%. So as you -- as we reported, our SMB volume was flat year-on-year, and we just think there might be some risk to SMBs in the third quarter. We just don't know.

所以考慮一下這一點。在第一季末，我們的客戶有庫存，他們在第二季將這些庫存賣掉了。他們現在需要補充庫存。如果您是僅從中國採購的中小企業客戶，您可能會發現您的成本可能會增加 55%。正如我們所報告的，我們的中小企業交易量同比持平，我們認為第三季中小企業可能會面臨一些風險。我們只是不知道。

Finally, we don't have peak plans yet. And so all these things make the range of revenue for the third quarter very wide. Now on the expense side, I'm certainly pleased with the progress our team is making in terms of delivering the $3.5 billion in cost out that we laid out at the beginning of the year. So I'm very pleased with that. But there are a couple of things that we have to work on.

最後，我們還沒有高峰計劃。所有這些因素使得第三季的收入範圍非常廣泛。現在就費用方面而言，我對我們的團隊在實現年初制定的 35 億美元成本方面所取得的進展感到非常滿意。所以我對此感到非常高興。但有幾件事我們還需要努力。

First, the attrition related to our Amazon guideline -- glide down was not as high as we expected it to be. What we're seeing is that the longer a building is closed, the higher the attrition rate. The majority of the closures that occurred in the second quarter were back-end weighted, so we expect the attrition to get higher as time progresses. So this should take care of itself from a part-time hourly perspective.

首先，與我們的亞馬遜指導方針相關的人員流失——下滑並不像我們預期的那麼高。我們看到的是，建築物關閉的時間越長，員工流動率就越高。第二季度發生的大多數關閉都是後端加權的，因此我們預計隨著時間的推移，流失率會更高。因此，從兼職小時數的角度來看，這應該可以自行解決。

And to address the full-time driver roles we've offered this voluntary buyout. We don't know the takeout yet. We don't know then the cost associated with that takeout and the benefit associated with that takeout so that's to be seen.

為了解決全職司機的問題，我們提出了自願買斷的方案。我們還不知道外送的情況。我們不知道外送的相關成本和相關收益，所以這還有待觀察。

And finally, on Ground Saver, while we're pleased with the customer experience that we have been providing with Ground Saver, the algorithm that we modeled for delivery density, didn't hold true in the second quarter. And as a result, we had more delivery stops than we had anticipated.

最後，關於 Ground Saver，雖然我們對透過 Ground Saver 提供的客戶體驗感到滿意，但我們針對配送密度建模的演算法在第二季並不適用。結果，我們的送貨站點比預期的要多。

We're working through that algorithm but we have also reengaged with the USPS. There's new leadership there, you have excess capacity. So we're working through a number of different solutions on Ground Saver. We don't know the outcome of that yet, but we expect to know that hopefully in the quarter. So at the end of all of this, by the end of the third quarter, we think we'll have more certainty on tariffs.

我們正在研究該演算法，但我們也重新與美國郵政服務合作。那裡有新的領導，產能過剩。因此，我們正在針對 Ground Saver 嘗試多種不同的解決方案。我們尚不知道結果，但我們希望在本季知道結果。因此，到第三季末，我們認為我們將對關稅有更大的確定性。

We think we'll have more certainty on peak. We think we'll have more certainty on costs so that we can come back and give guidance for the fourth quarter. Now with all that being said, Brian, maybe you could kind of give some shaping for the third quarter, just to help people with our model.

我們認為，我們將對高峰有更多的確定性。我們認為我們將對成本更加確定，以便我們可以回來並為第四季度提供指導。布萊恩，說了這麼多，也許您可以對第三季度進行一些闡述，以幫助人們了解我們的模型。

Yeah. Thanks, Carol. And I think Carol hit on all the right points, right? So volume remains depressed right now, right? And there's the possibility, particularly with our retail and SMB customers that look, it could get better, it could get a little bit worse as we go in.

是的。謝謝，卡羅爾。我認為卡羅爾說的都是正確的觀點，對嗎？那麼現在交易量仍然低迷，對嗎？而且存在這種可能性，特別是對於我們的零售和中小企業客戶來說，情況可能會變得更好，也可能會變得更糟。

And we're dealing with those higher -- the lower attrition and higher ground saver costs as we've got. So as you think about Q3 margins, they could be pressured a little more than we thought earlier in the year, even more than the kind of normal seasonality that we have from Q2 to Q3.

我們正在處理那些更高的問題——更低的人員流失率和更高的地面節省成本。因此，當您考慮第三季的利潤率時，它們面臨的壓力可能比我們今年早些時候想像的要大一些，甚至比第二季到第三季的正常季節性壓力還要大。

International and SCS, I mean, you see in the performance, things are holding pretty well. We expect those to be about the same. And we're going to get clarity as we go through the quarter on this, right? What we can say, look, is we've got a high degree of confidence, and I think it's starting to show in the results that the actions that we're taking are setting ourselves up for the longer term, right? The rev per piece is turning. The growth in international is positive. And this is going to put us in a much better competitive position not only to drive growth in the future, but expand margin.

國際和 SCS，我的意思是，你從表現上看，情況保持得相當好。我們預計它們會大致相同。隨著我們度過這個季度，我們會對此有一個清晰的認識，對嗎？我們可以說的是，我們有很高的信心，而且我認為結果開始表明，我們所採取的行動是為長遠發展做好了準備，對嗎？每件的轉速都在轉動。國際業務呈現積極成長。這將使我們處於更有利的競爭地位，不僅可以推動未來的成長，還可以擴大利潤率。

All really helpful. So it sounds like basically exiting domestic margins of double digits is just a bit uncertain right now?

一切都非常有幫助。那麼聽起來，目前國內利潤率能否達到兩位數似乎還有點不確定？

We'll have more certainty by the end of the third quarter. Yeah.

到第三季末，我們將會有更多確定性。是的。

Great. Thank you so much.

偉大的。太感謝了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ari Rosa, Citigroup.

花旗集團的阿里·羅莎 (Ari Rosa)。

Hi, good morning. This is Ben Mohr of Citi on for Ari Rosa. Thanks for taking our questions. At this rate of the China to US Parcel lane shifts to the rest of Southeast Asia, like Vietnam or Thailand to the US, when do you expect to fully lap those costs on the trade lane shifts? And with your total investments in infrastructure in the rest of Southeast Asia as it stands, is there enough excess capacity to handle these shifts? Or will you need to make additional infrastructure investments into Southeast Asia in order to handle these shifts?

嗨，早安。我是花旗銀行的 Ben Mohr，代表 Ari Rosa 發言。感謝您回答我們的問題。以中國至美國的包裹專線轉移到東南亞其他地區（如越南或泰國到美國）的速度，您預計什麼時候才能完全收回貿易專線轉移的成本？那麼，就目前您在東南亞其他地區基礎建設上的總投資而言，是否有足夠的過剩產能來應對這些轉變？或者您需要對東南亞進行額外的基礎設施投資以應對這些轉變？

Well, we're really pleased with how our integrated network is meeting the demands of our customers. And Kate, why don't you give some color?

嗯，我們對我們的整合網路如何滿足客戶的需求感到非常滿意。凱特，你為什麼不給它一些顏色呢？

Yeah, absolutely. So I think you may recall, we engaged with tens of thousands of customers to see how we could help them with supply chain shifts. Some of them were able to move faster than others, some are waiting for the outcome of the tariffs. But that said, we've unlocked the growth of rest of world to rest of the world. Now the China to US, as we indicated, was down and then the China rest of world is up. We have shown agility and to the question on capacity, we are shifting our resources around, and we do it very quickly so that we can capture that growth.

是的，絕對是如此。我想你可能還記得，我們與數萬名客戶進行了接觸，以了解如何幫助他們實現供應鏈轉變。其中一些國家能夠比其他國家行動得更快，而另一些國家則在等待關稅的結果。但話雖如此，我們已經將世界其他地區的成長釋放到了世界其他地區。正如我們所指出的，現在中國對美國的貿易額下降了，而世界其他地區的貿易額則上升了。我們已經展現出敏捷性，對於產能問題，我們正在轉移資源，而且我們做得非常快，以便能夠抓住這種成長。

In terms of investments, we actually were building out an Asia diversity strategy for the last few years. And with that, we actually were seeing, call it, 10% type growth that we're unlocking. So it's not a cost, it's actually alignment of resources now to be increased trade lane flow outside of the US. So we are capturing that. China, again, rest of world, over 20%. You mentioned Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Vietnam, all growing over 20%. We've doubled India. So we are seeing that UPS's global integrated network is capturing that growth.

在投資方面，我們實際上在過去幾年一直在製定亞洲多元化策略。由此，我們實際上看到了我們正在實現的 10% 類型的成長。所以這不是成本，實際上這是一種資源調整，可以增加美國境外的貿易航線流量。所以我們正在捕捉這一點。中國，以及世界其他地區，均超過 20%。您提到東南亞、馬來西亞、越南，成長率都超過20%。我們已經將印度的數量翻了一番。因此，我們看到 UPS 的全球綜合網路正在實現這一成長。

Now as we deal with the revenue per piece changes. So again, it's not the cost side as much as the revenue per piece, we are unlocking that profitable growth, and we will be harnessing more of it as the India's get stronger. You'll see a heavier weighting and that too is profitable to offset China.

現在我們來處理每件產品的收入變化。所以，再說一次，重要的不是成本方面，而是每件產品的收入，我們正在釋放這種獲利成長，隨著印度變得更加強大，我們將更多地利用這種成長。你會看到更大的權重，這對於抵消中國的影響也是有利的。

And maybe just a couple of other comments about investments because to Kate's point, we got ahead of this. We are expanding our air hub in Hong Kong. We are building a brand-new air hub in the Philippines, and that positions us very well for these changing shifts in trade lines.

也許還有一些關於投資的其他評論，因為正如凱特所說，我們已經領先了。我們正在擴建我們在香港的航空樞紐。我們正在菲律賓建造一個全新的航空樞紐，這將使我們更好地適應貿易線路的變化。

I think it's important to remember that of the 80 largest trade lanes in the world, 49 have an Asian country on one end of the trade lane and 22 have an Asian country on both ends of the trade lane. So the investments that we laid out several years ago now we'll be able to capitalize on the shifting trade lines.

我認為需要記住的是，在世界 80 條最大貿易航線中，有 49 條航線的一端有一個亞洲國家，有 22 條航線的兩端都有一個亞洲國家。因此，我們幾年前製定的投資現在將能夠利用不斷變化的貿易路線。

Great. Thanks so much. And maybe if I can ask a follow-up more domestically. We've seen smaller parcel carriers taking share in the parcel market, names like LaserShip, SpeedX, some gig economy carriers that compete with your Roadie. Do you see them as you work on existing or prospective customers that put out RFPs to bid? What's your view on their strategy. They seem to be competing on price and less comprehensive service. What's your strategy to maintain your competitive [moats]?

偉大的。非常感謝。也許我可以問一些更國內的後續問題。我們看到一些規模較小的包裹運輸公司在包裹市場中佔據了一定份額，例如 LaserShip、SpeedX 以及一些與 Roadie 競爭的零工經濟運輸公司。當您為現有客戶或潛在客戶提供 RFP 投標服務時，您是否見過他們？您對他們的策略有何看法？他們似乎在價格和不太全面的服務上競爭。你的策略是什麼來保持競爭力[護城河]？

Well, competition is good. I will say that. Our offering is very different than theirs because we do operate an end-to-end network, and I mean end-to-end from one coast to the other coast and every aspect of the supply chain, we can meet our customers' needs. From a market share perspective, we look at the addressable market. And for us, we define the addressable market as the market that excludes Amazon and excludes packages that are less than one pound. That market in the second quarter was soft, but we gained share. We're very proud of the fact that we gained share in that market even in this highly competitive environment.

嗯，競爭是好事。我會這麼說。我們提供的產品與他們的產品非常不同，因為我們確實經營著一個端到端的網絡，我的意思是從一個海岸到另一個海岸的端到端以及供應鏈的每個環節，我們都可以滿足客戶的需求。從市佔率的角度來看，我們關注的是可尋址市場。對我們來說，我們將可尋址市場定義為不包括亞馬遜和重量小於一磅的包裹的市場。儘管第二季市場表現疲軟，但我們的市佔率有所成長。即使在競爭激烈的環境中，我們仍能在該市場中佔據一定份額，對此我們感到非常自豪。

And Carol, if I can just add one thing to that because I think it's really important that the rev per piece growth of 5.5% is starting to show that the strategy of dynamically changing the volume in the network is working, right? And if you look at the segments where it really matters for us, SMB, our penetration was up 230 basis points. Commercial, our penetration was up 220 basis points.

卡羅爾，我可以補充一點嗎？因為我認為每件產品的銷售成長 5.5% 開始表明動態改變網路容量的策略正在發揮作用，這一點非常重要，對嗎？如果你看一下對我們真正重要的領域，即中小企業，我們的滲透率上升了 230 個基點。商業方面，我們的滲透率上升了220個基點。

We actually saw our zone, which means people who are using our end-to-end network over long distances, get longer for the third straight quarter, right? The pace of the weight decline, which has been an industry trend is slowing, right? So we are shifting the volume and the characteristics in our network to customers that keep value in our service offering.

我們實際上看到了我們的區域，這意味著使用我們的長距離端到端網路的人們連續第三個季度的時間更長，對嗎？重量下降的速度（這是行業趨勢）正在放緩，對嗎？因此，我們正在將網路中的數量和特性轉移給客戶，以保持我們服務的價值。

And we could talk a lot about the capabilities that we offer that our competitors do not like on health care, we have special labels that our competitors do not or we have RFID tagging on our packages that our customers do not. Or we have returns, boxless labelless returns that our competitors do not. So from a capability perspective, we will continue to invest in the capabilities that set us apart from our competitors.

我們可以大談特談我們在醫療保健領域提供的、競爭對手所不喜歡的功能，我們有競爭對手所沒有的特殊標籤，或者我們的包裹上有客戶所沒有的 RFID 標籤。或者我們有退貨服務，無箱無標籤退貨服務，而我們的競爭對手則沒有。因此，從能力角度來看，我們將繼續投資於使我們有別於競爭對手的能力。

Great. Thanks so much for your time and insights as always.

偉大的。一如既往，非常感謝您付出的時間和見解。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Bruce Chan, Stifel.

布魯斯陳（Bruce Chan），Stifel。

Hey, good morning, everybody, and thanks for the questions here. Just wanted to dig into the SMB results a little bit more and see if you could provide some thoughts around whether that is all just policy uncertainty and something you think could accelerate if maybe we get more clarity on the macro or if there's anything maybe coming from competitive pressure as some of your peers are chasing that business as well?

嘿，大家早安，感謝大家的提問。只是想更深入地研究一下 SMB 的結果，看看您是否可以提供一些想法，關於這是否只是政策不確定性，以及如果我們對宏觀有更清晰的了解，您認為可能會加速這一進程，或者是否有可能來自競爭壓力，因為您的一些同行也在追逐這項業務？

So as we said, our SMBs are a bit challenged. We have -- we talked to our SMB customers to understand how they're thinking about the current trade environment and many of them are wrestling. They want to find different alternatives of sourcing. But as they knock on the door, they're not necessarily gaining attention from the countries where they might be able to move their sourcing to. So there's really a lot of trade uncertainty out there.

正如我們所說，我們的中小型企業面臨一些挑戰。我們已經與中小型企業客戶進行了交談，以了解他們如何看待當前的貿易環境，他們中的許多人都在苦苦掙扎。他們想尋找不同的採購替代方案。但當他們敲門時，他們不一定能引起那些他們可能將採購轉移到的國家的注意。因此，貿易方面確實存在著許多不確定性。

And it's not just trade uncertainty. Some of them are finding that in today's environment, credit conditions have tightened up a bit on them. So it's not that they don't have access to capital in the ways that they have seen in prior years. So there's a number of just challenges that this group is faced with.

這不僅僅是貿易不確定性。他們中的一些人發現，在當今環境下，信貸條件對他們來說已經有些收緊。因此，並不是說他們無法像前幾年那樣獲得資金。因此，這個群體面臨許多挑戰。

Our job is to listen to them through our supply chain mapping capabilities, help them think about how they might move their sourcing around, help them think how they might be able to reduce our costs by moving inventory in different places or using different modes of transportation. So with over 600 supply chain mapping projects in the second quarter, many of that came from our SMBs. And Matt is here, Matt, is there anything you'd like to add on SMBs?

我們的工作是透過我們的供應鏈映射功能傾聽他們的意見，幫助他們思考如何轉移採購，幫助他們思考如何透過在不同地方轉移庫存或使用不同的運輸方式來降低成本。因此，第二季有超過 600 個供應鏈映射項目，其中許多來自我們的中小企業。馬特 (Matt) 也在這裡，馬特，您還有什麼關於 SMB 的補充嗎？

I'll just highlight one thing just to complement what Carol said, I think SMBs are disproportionately impacted in this space. However, they're looking to UPS and where the strength of our capabilities, the strength of our network is really what positions us well right now.

我只想強調一件事來補充卡羅爾所說的話，我認為中小企業在這個領域受到的影響尤其嚴重。然而，他們正在關注 UPS，而我們的能力優勢、網路優勢才是我們目前處於有利地位的真正原因。

They come to us one, because they trust the brand. But to Carol's point, they're looking to where they should source and should they ship manufacturing. They're looking at modes, do you keep it near, do you put it on an ocean container. And when we think about end-to-end, we do think about coast-to-coast, but we think about it globally across the world because we have an integrated network that positions us to win in that space.

他們來找我們，是因為他們信任這個品牌。但正如卡羅爾所說，他們正在尋找應該從哪裡採購以及應該從哪裡運送製造品。他們正在研究模式，你是否把它放在附近，你是否把它放在海運貨櫃上。當我們考慮端到端時，我們確實會考慮從東海岸到西海岸，但我們考慮的是全球範圍的，因為我們擁有一個整合的網絡，使我們能夠在該領域取勝。

I might highlight health care as well in the SMB. We are seeing the shining light through our differentiated capability with our lab plackards. And our US operators are delivering 99% plus on basically doctors' offices and insurance, that your lab sample will go back to the lab, your specimens, be tested and literally, we get into Worldport up to, call it, 1 AM, and it's on -- back on to the patients if it's a treatment doorstep by 10:30. I mean that is exceptional service.

我可能也會強調中小企業的醫療保健。我們透過實驗室標誌上的差異化能力看到了光芒。我們的美國業者基本上為醫生辦公室和保險公司提供了 99% 以上的服務，您的實驗室樣本將返回實驗室，對您的標本進行檢測，實際上，我們會在凌晨 1 點之前進入 Worldport，如果在 10:30 之前到達治療地點，我們就會將藥物送回患者手中。我的意思是這是卓越的服務。

And maybe one other comment, just a bright spot on SD World, and that's our digital access platform. That platform continues to provide excellent service for our customers. We have 41 partners on that platform, serving over 7 million shippers, and we saw good growth on that platform again in the second quarter.

也許還有另一條評論，只是 SD World 的一個亮點，那就是我們的數位存取平台。該平台繼續為我們的客戶提供優質服務。我們在該平台上擁有 41 個合作夥伴，為超過 700 萬托運人提供服務，並且我們在第二季度再次看到平台的良好成長。

That's great. Thank you.

那太棒了。謝謝。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯‧韋瑟比。

Hey, good morning, guys. It's Rob Salmon on for Chris. With regard to the outlook that you just provided, Brian, in terms of the second half shape of the margins, could you discuss a little bit more how international package margins trended over the quarter as you saw the much bigger declines on that -- the China US trade lane? And what your expectations are looking out to the third quarter? I thought I heard flattish, but it would be really helpful if we could get a little bit of color given the cost adjustments that you guys were making there?

嘿，大家早安。羅布·薩蒙 (Rob Salmon) 代替克里斯上場。關於您剛才提供的展望，布萊恩，就下半年利潤率的形態而言，您能否進一步討論一下本季度國際包裹利潤率的趨勢，因為您看到中美貿易航線的降幅更大？您對第三季有何期望？我以為我聽到的是平淡的消息，但如果我們能夠根據你們正在進行的成本調整獲得一些詳細信息，那將會非常有幫助嗎？

Sure. And Rob, I do think it's worthwhile to brag a little bit on the international and the air team here because we did see -- the trade flows played out about as we expected. But as Carol mentioned, the magnitudes were very different, right? And so we did see that China to the US decline more than what we expected. We saw China and the rest of the world increased more, particularly in specific lanes.

當然。羅布，我確實認為值得在這裡稍微誇耀一下國際和空中團隊，因為我們確實看到——貿易流動正如我們預期的那樣。但正如卡羅爾所提到的，幅度非常不同，對嗎？因此，我們確實看到中國對美國的降幅超出了我們的預期。我們看到中國和世界其他地區的成長幅度更大，特別是在特定的航線上。

Within the second quarter, we made over 100 ad hoc adjustments to our air network to flex to what our customers needed us to do, which I think is a tremendous accomplishment for the international team, and it shows up in the export growth numbers that were really, really strong.

在第二季度，我們對我們的航空網路進行了 100 多次臨時調整，以滿足客戶的需求，我認為這對國際團隊來說是一個巨大的成就，而且它體現在非常強勁的出口成長數據中。

Now what that does mean is, look, there's some frictional costs, right, as you're adjusting that air network. And I think as we move through the third quarter and we get more certainty on tariffs, we get more certainty on orders for peak from our customers, we'll be able to harden off the capacity on those lanes, get the assets in the right place and continue to drive the margin.

現在，這意味著，當你調整空中網路時，會產生一些摩擦成本。我認為，隨著我們進入第三季度，我們對關稅有了更多的確定性，我們對客戶的高峰訂單有了更多的確定性，我們將能夠加強這些航線的運力，將資產放在正確的位置，並繼續提高利潤率。

Right now, we think it's kind of the same second quarter to third quarter. But as we get more certainty, that allows us to make adjustments that can drive the margin back to where we think international can be mid to high teens over the long term.

目前，我們認為第二季和第三季的情況大致相同。但隨著我們獲得更多確定性，我們可以做出調整，將利潤率拉回我們認為的長期國際利潤率中高水準。

And part of the margin contraction was due to less demand related surcharges this year than last. And where do we lap that, Brian?

利潤率下降的部分原因是今年與需求相關的附加費比去年減少。那麼，布萊恩，我們該如何解決這個問題呢？

We'll lap that in the fourth quarter.

我們將在第四季度實現這一目標。

Yeah.

是的。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克（Ravi Shanker）。

Great time, everyone. Carol, you said that the Amazon glide down is proceeding for the most part as planned. Can you share some light on what is not going as planned maybe kind of is it just the shifting rate of drawdown in 1Q and 2Q? Or is there something else different in the next [Q]?

大家玩得開心。卡羅爾，您說亞馬遜滑坡大部分正在按計劃進行。您能否解釋一下哪些事情沒有按計劃進行，也許只是第一季和第二季的下降率發生了變化？或者接下來還有什麼不同[問]？

It's simply the attrition rate. The attrition rate is not where we thought it would be. And as I mentioned, Ravi, the building closures were back-end weighted towards the end of the quarter. And what we see as time goes on, the longer a building is closed, the higher the attrition rate to make that real for you in the first month of closure, it's in the single digit. By the third month of closure, it's 25%.

這只是流失率。流失率並不像我們想像的那麼高。正如我所提到的，拉維，建築物關閉是本季末的後端加權。我們發現，隨著時間的推移，建築物關閉的時間越長，員工流動率就越高，在關閉的第一個月，員工流動率只有個位數。到關閉後的第三個月，這一比例就達到了 25%。

So the turnover on the hard time hourly side is going to normalize over time as we -- as time progresses. On the full-time drivers, they have the opportunity to bump into a building. They can follow the work and bump into the building if there's no driving work.

因此，隨著時間的推移，困難時段每小時的營業額將逐漸正常化。對於專職司機來說，他們有機會撞上建築物。如果沒有駕駛工作，它們可以跟隨工作並撞進建築物。

And that's fine for them, but that's they choose to do that, but we are offering them an opportunity to leave with a nice check if they say, that's not work we want to do. And if you think about our drivers, Nando, tell me how many of our drivers have been driving for 35 years or more?

這對他們來說很好，但這是他們選擇這樣做，但如果他們說這不是我們想做的工作，我們會給他們一個機會，讓他們帶著一張不錯的支票離開。如果您想想我們的司機，南多，請告訴我有多少司機已經駕駛了 35 年或更長時間？

Yes. So 84%, 85% of our drivers are at top end of our pay scale, and anywhere from 25 years to 40 years of service, we have thousands and thousands of drivers that we're entertaining a buyout package. And just one comment on the Amazon glide down. That is our biggest concern, but something we have to deal with, that we had modeled a little differently.

是的。因此，我們 84% 到 85% 的司機都處於我們薪資等級的最高端，並且，從 25 年到 40 年的服務年限，我們為成千上萬的司機提供買斷方案。關於亞馬遜下滑，我只想發表一則評論。這是我們最擔心的問題，但我們必須處理這個問題，我們已經建立了稍微不同的模型。

But on the whole, when you look at the variable expense that Brian had talked about, 8 million hours in the quarter, the semi-variable 9,500 more employees, and we see part-timeattriting faster than full time. So we'll be at a call it, even as we continue drawing down on Amazon. So the real concern is in our full-time category.

但總體而言，當你看著 Brian 談到的變動成本時，你會發現本季有 800 萬個小時，半變動員工增加了 9,500 人，而且我們發現兼職員工的流失速度比全職員工更快。因此，即使我們繼續減少對亞馬遜的依賴，我們也會隨時待命。因此，我們真正擔心的是全職類別。

And then for our fixed buildings, I'd say it's mostly administrative. So payroll, assigning people to the right new facilities and new positions. But in the end, 74 facilities, 155 operations, I think done rather smoothly, and our service continues to be very strong.

對於我們的固定建築，我想說它主要是行政用途。因此，薪資將人員分配到正確的新設施和新職位。但最終，我認為 74 家機構、155 項手術都進行得相當順利，而且我們的服務仍然非常強勁。

So I couldn't be more pleased how we're progressing on this strategic pivot. It's just we modeled an attrition rate that didn't hold in the second quarter, but we expect that to correct over time.

因此，我對我們在這項策略轉變上的進展感到非常高興。我們只是模擬了第二季度沒有保持的流失率，但我們預計隨著時間的推移會得到糾正。

And Ravi, one other thing I would just add because I think it's important on the top line, the volume, we've worked very closely with Amazon on the glide down and how we do this in an orderly manner for both our network and their network andcustomers, and it's all going very well.

拉維，我還想補充一點，因為我認為銷量對於營收很重要，我們與亞馬遜就下滑問題進行了密切合作，並就如何有序地為我們的網絡、他們的網絡和客戶做到這一點進行了探討，一切都進展順利。

As you think about the pace of that, we always said it was -- the first half was around 13%, and the second half jumps to 30%. Just to kind of give you context on that. What that means is from the second quarter to third quarter, the decline is an incremental sequential 500,000 pieces, right?

當你考慮這個速度時，我們總是說它是——上半年約為 13%，下半年躍升至 30%。只是為了提供你這方面的背景資訊。這意味著從第二季到第三季度，下降幅度是連續 50 萬件，對嗎？

And so that's why we're moving to get ahead of the cost out. Nando's team has got a great plan on how we pull down on the assets, the hours the people as we go into the second half, and we're tracking to that $3.5 billion cost takeout.

這就是我們要努力降低成本的原因。Nando 的團隊已經制定了一個很好的計劃，關於如何在下半年減少資產、減少員工的工作時間，我們正在追蹤 35 億美元的成本削減目標。

If I could just add also, that's a big number, 30% when you think about it, but we're going to feather into a peak season in a much more efficient way, as we think about peak and the spike, although we don't have 100% of the picture yet, we will see that Amazon glide down feathers into peak very nicely for our company.

我還可以補充一點，這是一個很大的數字，想想看，30% 是這樣的，但我們將以更有效的方式進入旺季，當我們考慮高峰和峰值時，雖然我們還沒有 100% 了解情況，但我們會看到亞馬遜順利進入高峰期，這對我們公司來說非常有利。

That's really helpful detail. Is there a risk that this lower attrition rate could put that $3.5 billion of cost savings at risk or maybe shift the timing out a little bit? Or do you expect that to catch up over time?

這確實是很有幫助的細節。較低的人員流失率是否會使 35 億美元的成本節省面臨風險，或者可能稍微推遲時間？或者您希望隨著時間的推移，情況會有所改善？

We expect that to catch up over time.

我們預計隨著時間的推移，這一情況將會迎頭趕上。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

康納·坎寧安（Conor Cunningham），Melius Research。

Hi, everyone. Thank you. Maybe just sticking with the facility closures. So you did 74 in the first half. I was hoping you could level set on what you expect to do in the second half. And in the same context, could you talk about how much volume is going through a fully automated facilities and where do you expect that to end in 2025?

大家好。謝謝。也許只是堅持關閉設施。所以你在上半場完成了 74 分。我希望你能明確自己對下半場的期望。在同樣的背景下，您能否談談透過全自動設施處理的產量有多少，以及您預計到 2025 年這一數字將達到什麼程度？

The bigger question I have though is -- is that all enough that we get to the point where we can start to see margins uptick next year? I realize there's a lot going on in the world. But just as you level set today, just how that's altered it's all going right now? Thank you.

但我更大的問題是──這些是否足以讓我們在明年開始看到利潤率上升？我意識到世界上發生了很多事情。但正如您今天所設定的那樣，現在一切發生了怎樣的改變？謝謝。

Sure. Thank you very much for the question. And on the building closures, look, we're evaluating a number of different options. There are several buildings that we're looking at. And we'll come back with more information on how many that we're going to do, because there's the Amazon piece and then there's also the macro. We've got to take into account the impact on the entire network. So we'll provide more color on that.

當然。非常感謝您的提問。關於關閉建築物的問題，我們正在評估許多不同的選擇。我們正在看幾棟建築。我們將回來提供更多關於我們要做多少的信息，因為其中有亞馬遜部分，還有宏觀部分。我們必須考慮對整個網路的影響。因此我們將對此提供更多說明。

On the automation, look, we continue to invest in automation within the network. Because remember, we're not just gliding down Amazon volume and e-commerce volume. We're also investing to be a more efficient network that's going to make us higher margin as we go forward.

在自動化方面，我們持續投資網路內的自動化。因為請記住，我們不只是在降低亞馬遜的交易量和電子商務的交易量。我們也投資建立一個更有效率的網絡，以便我們在未來獲得更高的利潤。

In the second quarter, 64% of our volume went through automated facilities, up from 60% in the second quarter of last year. So we continue to make material improvement. And those automated facilities give us more flexibility to add sorts, be more dynamic with how we manage the volume and ultimately, will help us scale more efficiently for peak drive better cost structure as we reset the network.

在第二季度，我們的 64% 的貨物透過自動化設施運輸，高於去年第二季度的 60%。因此我們繼續進行物質改進。這些自動化設施為我們提供了更大的靈活性來添加種類，使我們對容量的管理更加動態，並最終幫助我們在重置網路時更有效地擴展尖峰驅動更好的成本結構。

Well, Conor, this is a big strategic pivot. And the reason why we're doing this is to grow the US margin. So we were all hands on deck here to grow the US margin.

嗯，康納，這是一個重大的戰略支點。我們這樣做的原因是為了提高美國的利潤率。因此，我們全力以赴，努力提高美國的利潤率。

But I think it's another great proof point. Look, we got a proof point and we're getting the right volume into the network. We're getting more volume through automation. And ultimately, Carol, you're exactly right. That drives better long-term margin.

但我認為這是另一個很好的證明點。看，我們得到了一個證明點，我們正在將正確的容量輸入網路。我們透過自動化獲得了更多的產量。最後，卡羅爾，你說得完全正確。這會帶來更好的長期利潤。

Yeah.

是的。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

Yeah. Hi, morning. Curious, I know there's a lot of peak uncertainty out there, and perhaps customers are waiting and seeing to see what happens. And to the extent maybe that delays stuff coming in and containers on ocean ships, et cetera, I mean is it possible if the consumer stays resilient that your peak season surge as people need faster air could actually give some tailwind to back half of the year or at least the fourth quarter? Thanks.

是的。嗨，早安。我很好奇，我知道那裡有很多高峰不確定性，也許客戶正在觀望會發生什麼。並且在某種程度上，這可能會延遲貨物的進口和遠洋船舶上的集裝箱運輸等等，我的意思是，如果消費者保持韌性，那麼由於人們對更快的航空運輸的需求，旺季的激增是否可能實際上為下半年或至少第四季度帶來一些順風？謝謝。

It's absolutely possible. We just don't have the plans yet. I talked to a CEO recently, and I said, what do you think about peak, I'm planning to win, which tells me that he is planning to have a pretty good pace here. So we will have a better sense of this at the end of the third quarter, at which time we will plan to give you guidance.

這絕對有可能。我們只是還沒有計劃。我最近與一位執行長進行了交談，我說，您認為巔峰狀態如何，我計劃獲勝，這告訴我他計劃在這裡保持相當好的節奏。因此，我們將在第三季末對此有更好的了解，屆時我們將計劃為您提供指導。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

Hey, great. Good morning. I guess on ground margins, maybe two parts, Carol. I think I'm a little confused on your answer to Ravi on the Amazon side where you talked about the time of facility closures relative to the attrition rate. I just want to understand though, the concept, is the volume still on target with as you expected? Or it sounded like this quarter was a little lighter in terms of fading away? And so I'm just not certain. Is that changing the plans from the pace you're moving Amazon? I got that you're going to accelerate the 30%. But I just want to understand if something happens where they don't fade away.

嘿，太棒了。早安.我猜在地面邊緣，也許是兩個部分，卡羅爾。我覺得我對你對亞馬遜方面拉維的回答有點困惑，你談到了設施關閉時間與員工流失率的關係。我只是想了解一下，這個概念，交易量是否仍符合您的期望？或者聽起來這個季度的消逝有點輕鬆？所以我不太確定。這是否會改變您推進亞馬遜的計劃？我知道你要加速 30%。但我只是想知道如果發生什麼事情，它們會不會消失。

And then secondly, on the ground saver, are you surprised that you won the business two quarters ago? Are you confident still to get to the double-digit margins? I'm just surprised in such a short time frame from winning the contract that we're not seeing -- there's cost adjustments that need to be made. Maybe you could talk about that.

其次，關於地面節省業務，您是否對兩個季度前贏得該業務感到驚訝？您還有信心達到兩位數的利潤率嗎？我只是很驚訝在贏得合約的這麼短的時間內我們沒有看到需要進行成本調整。也許你可以談論這個。

Alright. So on the Amazon glide down. The glide down -- I'll just give you the numbers. Q1, the glide down was 600,000 pieces a day. In Q2, the glide down was 400,000 pieces a day. It was a little lighter than we had anticipated, but that's because of volume we wanted to keep.

好吧。因此亞馬遜河就順流而下。滑行下來——我只是給你數字。Q1，每天下滑60萬件。第二季度，日均下滑40萬件。它比我們預期的要輕一點，但那是因為我們想保持音量。

As you recall, the -- we have a very complicated relationship with Amazon. And part of it is volume that we want to grow and keep and part of it is volume that we want them to deliver. And the volume that we want to grow and keep it was better than we anticipated. So I give that check in the right direction.

您還記得，我們與亞馬遜的關係非常複雜。其中一部分是我們希望增加並保持的數量，一部分是我們希望他們交付的數量。我們希望成長並保持的銷售量比我們預期的要好。所以我把這張支票給了正確的方向。

The only thing that's off is the attrition rate. And the attrition rate, we had modeled the attrition rates based on when we thought that we've come in, it's coming in a little bit later than we thought, but it's still going to come in. So from a for a full year perspective, very pleased with the Amazon glide down.

唯一不正常的是流失率。至於流失率，我們根據預期的進入時間來對流失率進行建模，雖然進入的時間比我們想像的要晚一些，但仍然會進入。因此，從全年角度來看，我對亞馬遜的下滑感到非常高興。

Now on ground saver. We, too, had a modeled algorithm that we put into our plan regarding delivery density per stop. That algorithm did not hold. And so what we found is that we had more expense than we had anticipated in the second quarter to dimensionalize that for you was about $85 million. We are working on operational changes that we could make, but we also have reengaged with the USPS. There's new leadership there, they have excess capacity. And so we're having a discussion with them.

現在在地面保護器上。我們也有一個模型演算法，我們將其納入每個站運送密度的計劃中。該演算法不成立。因此，我們發現，第二季的支出比我們預期的要多，約為 8,500 萬美元。我們正在進行力所能及的營運變革，但我們也已與美國郵政服務重新接洽。那裡有新的領導階層，產能過剩。因此我們正在與他們進行討論。

Brian, what would you like to add?

布萊恩，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

And Ken, and I think -- look, we also have a very complicated relationship with the USPS as well. And I want to distinguish Ground Saver, which was our former SurePost product, where we in-sourced the volume from the USPS from the air cargo volume that we won last year.

肯，我認為──你看，我們與美國郵政服務的關係也非常複雜。我想區分一下 Ground Saver，它是我們之前的 SurePost 產品，我們將去年贏得的空運量中的 USPS 的貨運量進行了內包。

The air cargo volume, look, it's going great. It's fully implemented, teams work really well together. As with every relationship, there's operational stuff that we're constantly work on to make each other better. But I think that's been a win for the USPS. It's been a win for us, and it's driving accretive margin. So the ground saver, where we in-sourced our former SurePost volume is causing a little bit of the cost plan.

看，空運貨物量進展順利。它已全面實施，團隊合作得很好。正如每一種關係一樣，我們需要不斷努力，讓彼此變得更好。但我認為這對美國郵政服務來說是一個勝利。這對我們來說是一次勝利，並且它正在推動利潤的成長。因此，我們將以前的 SurePost 業務量內包進來，這種節省地面資源的方式對成本計劃產生了一點影響。

Helpful clarification. Thank you, Brian. Thank you, Carol.

有幫助的澄清。謝謝你，布萊恩。謝謝你，卡羅爾。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮摩爾，傑富瑞集團。

Great. Good morning. This is Joe Hafling on for Stephanie Moore, busy day for Transports today. Carol, I wanted to go back to peak season and understanding that we'll get more clarity as kind of in year progresses, but I'm sure you've seen maybe some of the same calls that we won't see a peak season this year or that peak season already occurred with all the pre-tariff shipping.

偉大的。早安.我是喬·哈夫林 (Joe Hafling)，她將為斯蒂芬妮·摩爾 (Stephanie Moore) 報道這一天，這是交通運輸部門忙碌的一天。卡羅爾，我想回到旺季，並了解到隨著時間的推移我們會得到更清晰的認識，但我相信你可能已經看到一些相同的呼聲，即今年我們不會看到旺季，或者旺季已經出現在所有關稅前的運輸中。

So I don't know if you had any thoughts on that or if your conversations with shippers where inventory levels currently are. I know the demand picture remains uncertain, but can maybe help unpack kind of the puts and takes I'm thinking about peak season in that regard?

所以我不知道您對此有什麼想法，或者您與托運人的對話中是否提到了當前的庫存水準。我知道需求狀況仍然不確定，但也許可以幫助解開我對旺季的考慮？

So we have about 100 customers that drive 80% of the surge during peak. Ordinarily, we don't get peak plans until the end of August and then final plans at the end of September. I think they're going to be pushing them more into September as they're working through their plans. In my conversations with CEOs, no one's telling me they're not going to have a peak, but they're not in a position to dimensionalize that for us as you can appreciate, because all of the macro issues that we are all facing.

因此，我們有大約 100 名客戶，在高峰期推動了 80% 的激增。通常，我們要到 8 月底才能獲得高峰計劃，然後在 9 月底才能獲得最終計劃。我認為，他們會在 9 月進一步推進計劃，因為他們正在實施計劃。在我與執行長們的交談中，沒有人告訴我他們不會達到頂峰，但他們無法為我們具體說明這一點，正如你所理解的，因為我們都面臨著所有的宏觀問題。

So we are going to be ready for whatever happens because to Nando's point, we have more agility in our network than ever before because of the strategic pivot that we've made with our largest customer. So we'll be prepared up or down, Nando, what would you like to add?

因此，我們將為可能發生的任何情況做好準備，因為正如 Nando 所指出的，由於我們與最大客戶達成的策略轉變，我們的網路比以往任何時候都更加靈活。所以我們會做好準備，Nando，你想補充什麼？

We'll be prepared if there's a volume influx or a volume reduction, peak season for us is very variable. So we're able to scale up, scale down as quickly as possible. And those expenses don't linger once we scale down if that's what we need to do.

如果出現數量增加或減少的情況，我們會做好準備，對我們來說，旺季變化很大。因此我們能夠盡快擴大或縮小規模。如果我們需要縮減規模，這些開支就不會繼續存在。

Scaling up, not concerned that where we currently sit. But again, everything we're doing from Network of the Future, the scaling down on Amazon is all feathered into our peak season plans, and so it should fit quite nicely and it allow us to have a really good quality service peak season as well.

擴大規模，並不關心我們目前所處的位置。但是，我們在未來網路方面所做的一切，以及亞馬遜的縮減都融入了我們的旺季計劃，因此它應該非常合適，並且讓我們也能擁有一個真正優質的服務旺季。

And Matthew, we have time for one more question.

馬修，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

This is Jake Lacks on for Scott. Thanks for the time. So just to confirm, are the employee buyouts included in the $3.5 billion of savings? And any early sense on how large it can be. And then, any updates you can provide on efficiency reimagined looking out into 2026? And do you think you can see a similar number as Amazon volumes continue to glide down? Or does the lower attrition mean maybe there's some more limited opportunities here?

傑克·拉克斯 (Jake Lacks) 為斯科特 (Scott) 主持節目。謝謝你的時間。那麼，只是為了確認一下，員工買斷是否包含在 35 億美元的節省中？以及關於它到底有多大的任何早期感覺。那麼，您能提供關於 2026 年效率重塑的任何最新消息嗎？隨著亞馬遜的交易量持續下滑，您認為還會出現類似的數字嗎？或者較低的流失率是否意味著這裡的機會可能更有限？

So thanks for the question. So first of all, yes, so the driver separation package is a lever for us to get to the $3.5 billion. So it's a means for us to accelerate the attrition levels to get back on plan. And we expect that, as Carol said, part timers will work out over time, full-timers, we'll get them on plan.

感謝您的提問。首先，是的，司機離職補償金是我們達到 35 億美元目標的槓桿。因此，這是我們加速人員流失水準以恢復計畫的一種手段。正如卡羅爾所說，我們期望兼職人員能夠逐漸適應，全職人員則能夠按計畫完成工作。

As far as efficiency reimagined goes, look, we're seeing good traction. We saw a steep ramp in the second quarter. It will ramp in the back half and then that ramp next year. So yes, we would expect that the volume for Amazon to be decline, efficiency reimagined ramps, that will carry through a similar number to next year.

就重新構想的效率而言，我們看到了良好的進展。我們在第二季度看到了急劇上升的勢頭。它將在下半年逐漸增加，然後在明年逐漸增加。所以是的，我們預計亞馬遜的交易量將會下降，效率將會提升，這將與明年的數字相似。

It's early days on the driver buyout, but so far, it's progressing as we would expect. Once we have gotten it finished and we understand the dollar a number of drivers who have elected to leave us, and we can tell you what the money is.

車手買斷計劃尚處於早期階段，但目前為止，進展正如我們預期的那樣。一旦我們完成了這件事，我們就會了解一些選擇離開我們的司機的錢數，我們就可以告訴你錢的金額。

Alright. Thanks for squeezing me in.

好吧。謝謝你把我擠進來。

Appreciate it. Thank you.

非常感謝。謝謝。

Thank you. I will now turn the floor back over to your host, Mr. PJ Guido.

謝謝。現在我將把發言權交還給主持人 PJ Guido 先生。

Thank you, Matthew. This concludes our call. Thank you for joining, and have a great day.

謝謝你，馬修。我們的通話到此結束。感謝您的加入，祝您有愉快的一天。