聯合包裹運送服務公司 (UPS) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Stephen, and I will be your facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the UPS Investor Relations Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. Ken Cook, Investor Relations Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

早上好。我叫斯蒂芬，今天我將擔任你們的協調人。歡迎大家參加 UPS 投資者關係 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）。現在我很高興將發言權交給東道主投資者關係官 Ken Cook 先生。先生，地板是你的。

Good morning, and welcome to the UPS Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Carol Tome, our CEO; Brian Newman, our CFO; and a few additional members of our executive leadership team. Before we begin, I want to remind you that some of the comments we'll make today are forward-looking statements within the federal securities laws and address our expectations for the future performance or operating results of our company.

早上好，歡迎來到 UPS 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的首席執行官 Carol Tome；我們的首席財務官 Brian Newman；以及我們執行領導團隊的一些其他成員。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們今天要發表的一些評論是聯邦證券法中的前瞻性陳述，表達了我們對公司未來業績或經營業績的預期。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are described in our 2021 Form 10-K, subsequently filed Form 10-Qs and other reports we filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports, when filed, are available on the UPS Investor Relations website and from the SEC.

這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性在我們的 2021 年 10-K 表格、隨後提交的 10-Q 表格以及我們向證券交易委員會提交或提供的其他報告中有所描述。這些報告在提交後可在 UPS 投資者關係網站和美國證券交易委員會獲取。

Unless stated otherwise, our discussion refers to adjusted results. For the fourth quarter of 2022, GAAP results include a noncash after-tax mark-to-market pension gain of $782 million, a onetime noncash after-tax charge of $384 million, resulting from accelerated vesting of restricted performance units in connection with the change in incentive compensation program design.

除非另有說明，否則我們的討論指的是調整後的結果。 2022 年第四季度，GAAP 業績包括 7.82 億美元的非現金稅後按市值計算的養老金收益，以及 3.84 億美元的一次性非現金稅後費用，這是由於與變革相關的限制績效單位加速歸屬所致在激勵薪酬方案設計中。

A noncash after-tax charge of $58 million from a reduction in the residual value of our MD-11 aircraft and after-tax transformation and other charges of $41 million. The after-tax total for these items is $299 million, a benefit to fourth quarter 2022 EPS of $0.34 per diluted share. Additional details regarding year-end pension adjustments are included in the appendix of our fourth quarter 2022 earnings presentation that will be posted to the UPS Investor Relations website later today. A reconciliation to GAAP financial results is available on the UPS Investor Relations website along with the webcast of today's call. (Operator Instructions). And now I'll turn the call over to Carol.

5800 萬美元的非現金稅後費用來自我們 MD-11 飛機殘值的減少和稅後改造以及 4100 萬美元的其他費用。這些項目的稅後總額為 2.99 億美元，2022 年第四季度攤薄後每股收益為 0.34 美元。有關年終養老金調整的更多詳細信息包含在我們 2022 年第四季度收益報告的附錄中，該報告將於今天晚些時候發佈在 UPS 投資者關係網站上。 UPS 投資者關係網站上提供了與 GAAP 財務結果的對賬以及今天電話會議的網絡廣播。 （操作員說明）。現在我會把電話轉給卡羅爾。

Thank you, Ken, and good morning. Let me begin by thanking UPSers for delivering what matters to our customers this holiday season. In the quarter, we were faced with choppy demand, continued COVID lockdowns in China, a threat of a rail strike in the United States and a bomb cyclone in North America. But no matter what came our way, our team delivered.

謝謝你，肯，早上好。首先，我要感謝 UPS 員工在這個假期為我們的客戶提供重要的服務。在本季度，我們面臨著需求波動、中國持續的 COVID 封鎖、美國鐵路罷工的威脅以及北美的炸彈旋風。但無論我們遇到什麼問題，我們的團隊都做到了。

We executed another outstanding peak and delivered industry-leading service for the fifth consecutive year. I am very proud of our team and what we accomplished, not just in the quarter but for the entire year. Looking at our fourth quarter results, we expected volume levels to decline from last year, and they did, but more than we planned due to macro conditions that Brian will discuss. We responded by managing our network with agility and a focus on service.

我們再創高峰，連續五年提供行業領先的服務。我為我們的團隊和我們所取得的成就感到非常自豪，不僅是在本季度，而且是在全年。看看我們第四季度的業績，我們預計銷量水平會比去年下降，他們確實如此，但由於布賴恩將討論的宏觀條件，比我們計劃的要多。作為回應，我們敏捷地管理我們的網絡並專注於服務。

Consolidated revenue was $27 billion, down 2.7% from last year. And operating profit was $3.8 billion, a decrease of 3.3%. While our consolidated operating margin declined by 10 basis points from last year to 14.1%, our U.S. operating margin expanded to 12.8% and reached a level not seen in 10 years. Reflecting back on 2022, much changed from when we originally set our plans.

綜合收入為 270 億美元，比去年下降 2.7%。營業利潤為 38 億美元，下降 3.3%。雖然我們的綜合營業利潤率比去年下降 10 個基點至 14.1%，但我們在美國的營業利潤率擴大至 12.8%，達到 10 年來未見的水平。回顧 2022 年，與我們最初制定計劃時相比發生了很大變化。

We experienced geopolitical tensions, including a war, and global inflation drove food and energy costs higher. We saw both relief and concern as China pivoted away from its Zero COVID policy. Global supply chains continue to adjust and demand and pricing for air and ocean freight softened accordingly. Consumers returned to pre-pandemic shopping behaviors as retailers have been successful in attracting consumers back into stores.

我們經歷了包括戰爭在內的地緣政治緊張局勢，全球通脹推高了食品和能源成本。隨著中國放棄其零 COVID 政策，我們既感到欣慰又感到擔憂。全球供應鏈繼續調整，空運和海運的需求和價格也相應走軟。隨著零售商成功吸引消費者回到商店，消費者恢復了大流行前的購物行為。

And we won't even talk about the weather, which candidly presented challenges throughout the year. Even in the face of so much change, UPSers remained focused on controlling what we can control, and we delivered our full year consolidated operating margin and return on invested capital targets. In 2022, consolidated revenue increased 3.1% to reach $100.3 billion.

我們甚至不會談論天氣，它坦率地提出了全年的挑戰。即使面對如此多的變化，UPS 員工仍然專注於控制我們能控制的東西，我們實現了全年的綜合運營利潤率和投資資本回報率目標。 2022 年，綜合收入增長 3.1%，達到 1003 億美元。

We missed our revenue target by about 2%. But as Brian will detail, nearly all of this miss was due to a stronger dollar than originally anticipated. Consolidating operating profit in 2022 totaled $13.9 billion, 5.4% higher than last year, and consolidated operating margin reached 13.8%. We generated $9 billion in free cash flow. And diluted earnings per share were $12.94, an increase of 6.7%.

我們錯過了大約 2% 的收入目標。但正如 Brian 將詳述的那樣，幾乎所有這些失誤都是由於美元強於原先預期。 2022 年合併營業利潤總計 139 億美元，比去年增長 5.4%，合併營業利潤率達到 13.8%。我們產生了 90 億美元的自由現金流。每股攤薄收益為 12.94 美元，增長 6.7%。

During the year, we stayed on strategy. Customer first, people led, innovation driven. As we've discussed, customer first is about creating a frictionless customer experience targeted at certain customer segments, including SMBs and Healthcare. Since its inception, we've had huge success with DAP, our Digital Access Program and making it easier for SMB customers to do business with UPS.

在這一年裡，我們堅持戰略。客戶至上，以人為本，創新驅動。正如我們所討論的，客戶至上是針對特定客戶群（包括 SMB 和醫療保健）創造無摩擦的客戶體驗。自成立以來，我們在數字訪問計劃 DAP 方面取得了巨大成功，並使 SMB 客戶更容易與 UPS 開展業務。

In 2022, we generated more than $2.3 billion in DAP revenue exceeding our target. We expect the momentum to continue and plan to generate around $3 billion in global DAP revenue in 2023. And with the launch of Deal Manager in 2022, we've made progress toward dynamic pricing. Deal Manager digitizes the pricing process and applies pricing science to present the right offer to our SMB customers the first time. So we are able to close deals faster and with better revenue quality.

2022 年，我們產生了超過 23 億美元的 DAP 收入，超出了我們的目標。我們預計這一勢頭將持續下去，併計劃在 2023 年產生約 30 億美元的全球 DAP 收入。隨著 2022 年 Deal Manager 的推出，我們在動態定價方面取得了進展。 Deal Manager 將定價流程數字化，並應用定價科學在第一時間向我們的 SMB 客戶提供合適的報價。因此，我們能夠更快地完成交易並獲得更好的收入質量。

In 2022, our U.S. win rate with Deal Manager was 22 percentage points higher than the baseline. So we are moving quickly to expand access to Deal Manager to more than 40 countries in 2023. Additionally, we recently launched a pilot that enables systematic day of week pricing, which is good for our customers and good for UPS. Early feedback is promising, and we'll share more updates on this pilot on future calls.

2022 年，我們在美國使用 Deal Manager 的勝率比基準高 22 個百分點。因此，我們正在迅速採取行動，在 2023 年將 Deal Manager 的訪問權限擴展到 40 多個國家/地區。此外，我們最近啟動了一項試點，以實現系統的每周定價，這對我們的客戶和 UPS 都有好處。早期反饋很有希望，我們將在未來的電話會議上分享更多關於這個試點的更新。

Looking at SMBs, they made up 28% of our total U.S. volume in 2022, an increase of 120 basis points compared to 2021. Turning to Healthcare. In 2022, our Healthcare portfolio reached $9.2 billion in revenue, and the quality of our offerings was best-in-class. Our goal is to become the #1 complex health care logistics provider in the world. Today, we have nearly 17 million square feet of healthcare-compliant distribution space globally with leading cold chain logistics capabilities.

看看中小企業，它們占我們 2022 年美國總銷量的 28%，比 2021 年增加了 120 個基點。轉向醫療保健。 2022 年，我們的醫療保健產品組合收入達到 92 億美元，我們的產品質量一流。我們的目標是成為全球排名第一的綜合醫療保健物流供應商。今天，我們在全球擁有近 1700 萬平方英尺的符合醫療保健要求的配送空間，擁有領先的冷鏈物流能力。

In 2023, we expect our Healthcare portfolio to generate more than $10 billion in revenue. We don't just look at volume and revenue to measure our success. We also look at our Net Promoter Score. In 2022, the improvements we saw in our Net Promoter Score outpaced the competition. We made strong gains in all 16 customer journeys, including the 3 most important; negotiate value, reroute a package and resolve a claim. We are well on our way to our NPS target of 50.

到 2023 年，我們預計我們的醫療保健產品組合將產生超過 100 億美元的收入。我們不只是看數量和收入來衡量我們的成功。我們還會查看我們的淨推薦值。 2022 年，我們在淨推薦值方面的改進超過了競爭對手。我們在所有 16 個客戶旅程中都取得了巨大的進步，包括最重要的 3 個；協商價值、重新安排包裹路線和解決索賠。我們正在朝著 50 的 NPS 目標邁進。

Turning to people led. Here, we are focused on the employee experience and making UPS a great place to work. For our frontline employees, we made organizational design changes to address certain work-life balance challenges. We've stepped up maintenance spending in our buildings, including updating break rooms and restrooms, refreshing paint, improving lighting and adding cooling stations.

轉向以人為首。在這裡，我們專注於員工體驗並使 UPS 成為一個理想的工作場所。對於我們的一線員工，我們進行了組織設計變更，以應對某些工作與生活平衡的挑戰。我們增加了建築物的維護支出，包括更新休息室和洗手間、更新油漆、改善照明和增加冷卻站。

And for our management employees, nearly 40,000 around the world, we've been laser-focused on improving our likelihood to recommend score or LTR. When I started with the company, LTR stood at 51%. It is now 60%, and we would like it to be 80% or higher. And looking at the drivers of dissatisfaction, the largest area of concern was pay, not the total amount of pay, but rather the pay mix structure. So we've taken action to fix it.

對於我們在全球近 40,000 名管理人員，我們一直專注於提高我們推薦分數或 LTR 的可能性。當我開始在公司工作時，LTR 為 51%。現在是 60%，我們希望它達到 80% 或更高。從不滿的驅動因素來看，最受關注的領域是薪酬，而不是薪酬總額，而是薪酬結構。所以我們已經採取行動來修復它。

Beginning in 2023, we are changing the pay mix structure by increasing the cash component. This shift does not change total compensation for our management employees, but does increase cash. We also accelerated the vesting of stock awards associated with our annual bonus plans. This was a onetime noncash charge. Beginning in 2023, management incentive plan annual bonuses, if earned, will be paid in cash.

從 2023 年開始，我們將通過增加現金部分來改變薪酬結構。這種轉變不會改變我們管理人員的總薪酬，但會增加現金。我們還加快了與年度獎金計劃相關的股票獎勵的歸屬。這是一次性的非現金費用。從 2023 年開始，管理激勵計劃年度獎金（如果獲得）將以現金支付。

Regarding our upcoming labor contract negotiation, we are well prepared for negotiations and are focused on achieving an agreement that is a win for our employees, a win for the Teamsters and a win for UPS and our customers. We have great jobs with industry-leading pay and benefits. Now I suspect many of you listening today would like details of our negotiating strategy.

關於我們即將進行的勞動合同談判，我們已做好充分的談判準備，並專注於達成一項對我們的員工、對卡車司機、對 UPS 和我們的客戶都是雙贏的協議。我們擁有出色的工作，擁有行業領先的薪酬和福利。現在我懷疑今天在座的許多人都想了解我們談判策略的細節。

Well, we believe the best way to achieve a win-win-win outcome is for us to leave the details of the negotiations at the bargaining table. So let's move on to the last leg of our strategy, innovation driven. We believe innovation is one reason we've been able to provide our customers with industry-leading service for 5 peaks in a row. By leveraging the agility and efficiency of our integrated network, our engineers and operating teams quickly make decisions to adjust the network and keep service levels high.

好吧，我們認為實現雙贏結果的最好方法是讓我們把談判的細節留在談判桌上。因此，讓我們繼續我們戰略的最後一步，即創新驅動。我們相信創新是我們能夠連續 5 次為客戶提供行業領先服務的原因之一。通過利用我們集成網絡的敏捷性和效率，我們的工程師和運營團隊可以快速做出調整網絡並保持高服務水平的決策。

This year, we supplemented our engineering tools with our total service plan, which further improved our on-time network and drove productivity. In the fourth quarter, hours deployed in the U.S. dropped 5.3%, which was greater than the decrease in volume. And in terms of cube utilization, our efforts in the fourth quarter enabled us to eliminate nearly 1,500 trailer loads per day.

今年，我們用我們的整體服務計劃補充了我們的工程工具，這進一步改善了我們的準時網絡並提高了生產力。第四季度，在美國部署的小時數下降了 5.3%，降幅大於數量降幅。在立方體利用率方面，我們在第四季度的努力使我們每天減少了近 1,500 輛拖車負載。

We are relentlessly focused on making our network even more efficient. We were very pleased with the initial results of our Smart Package, Smart Facility RFID initiative, where we are seeing fewer missloads and higher productivity. As a result, this year, we plan to complete the RFID deployment in the more than 900 buildings across the U.S. In 2022, we created a new growth platform we call Logistics-as-a-Service, which combines digital capabilities with our best-in-class global integrated network.

我們不懈地專注於使我們的網絡更加高效。我們對我們的智能包裹、智能設施 RFID 計劃的初步結果感到非常滿意，我們看到了更少的誤裝和更高的生產率。因此，今年，我們計劃在全美 900 多座建築物中完成 RFID 部署。2022 年，我們創建了一個新的增長平台，我們稱之為物流即服務，它將數字能力與我們最好的-一流的全球綜合網絡。

Under this platform, we launched our delivery density solution, where we continue to add customers and are seeing positive results. Lastly, we can't talk about innovation without speaking to the progress we are making against our environmental sustainability targets. In 2022, we took delivery of over 2,300 alternative fuel and advanced technology vehicles, bringing our rolling laboratory to more than 15,600. And in 2023, we plan to add more than 2,400 vehicles as we move towards carbon neutrality by 2050.

在這個平台下，我們推出了我們的交付密度解決方案，我們繼續增加客戶並看到積極的結果。最後，我們不能不談我們在實現環境可持續性目標方面取得的進展就談創新。 2022 年，我們交付了 2,300 多輛替代燃料和先進技術車輛，使我們的滾動實驗室達到 15,600 多個。到 2023 年，我們計劃在 2050 年實現碳中和的過程中增加 2,400 多輛汽車。

We think the best way to measure innovation driven is by delivering higher returns on invested capital. For the full year 2022, we delivered a return on invested capital of 31.3%, 50 basis points above 2021. Let me close with a few comments related to 2023. The outlook for economic growth is cloudy at best, geopolitical tensions are rising, and we have a labor contract to negotiate.

我們認為衡量創新驅動的最佳方式是提供更高的投資資本回報。對於 2022 年全年，我們實現了 31.3% 的投資資本回報率，比 2021 年高出 50 個基點。讓我以與 2023 年相關的一些評論作為結束。經濟增長前景充其量是多雲的，地緣政治緊張局勢正在加劇，並且我們有一份勞動合同要談判。

For us, it is a year of resilience. What does resilience mean? It means we will plan conservatively and pivot quickly. It means we will balance defensive and offensive moves, and it means we will execute what we call our wildly important initiatives. Specifically, we will balance efficiency moves with growth opportunities. Think of that as better and bolder. We will stop certain initiatives and accelerate others, thereby increasing investment in our business. Relative to 2022, we are increasing our 2023 expense and capital budget by over $900 million.

對我們來說，這是充滿韌性的一年。韌性是什麼意思？這意味著我們將保守地計劃並迅速調整。這意味著我們將平衡防禦和進攻行動，這意味著我們將執行我們所謂的極其重要的舉措。具體來說，我們將平衡效率舉措與增長機會。認為那更好，更大膽。我們將停止某些舉措並加快其他舉措，從而增加對我們業務的投資。相對於 2022 年，我們將 2023 年的費用和資本預算增加超過 9 億美元。

Finally, we'll focus on 3 wildly important initiatives: improving the customer value proposition, increasing talent development and employee engagement, and leveraging our physical network with our digital platform to drive Logistics-as-a-Service. Given the uncertainty ahead, we are providing a range for our 2023 revenue and profit outlook. Brian will provide the details. As a demonstration of confidence in our business going forward, and in concert with our capital allocation principles, the UPS Board has approved a $0.10 increase in the quarterly dividend from $1.52 per share to $1.62 per share.

最後，我們將專注於 3 項極其重要的舉措：改善客戶價值主張、增加人才發展和員工敬業度，以及利用我們的物理網絡和數字平台來推動物流即服務。鑑於未來的不確定性，我們為 2023 年的收入和利潤前景提供了一個範圍。 Brian 將提供詳細信息。為了表明我們對未來業務的信心，並與我們的資本分配原則保持一致，UPS 董事會已批准將季度股息從每股 1.52 美元增加 0.10 美元至每股 1.62 美元。

This is the 14th consecutive year we have increased the UPS dividend. Additionally, our Board approved a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization, replacing our existing authorization. In closing, over the past 2.5 years, we have fundamentally improved nearly every aspect of our business, and we're just getting started. Uncertainty creates opportunity, and this team has proven that it's up for the challenge. So thank you for listening. And now I'll turn the call over to Brian.

這是我們連續第 14 年增加 UPS 股息。此外，我們的董事會批准了一項新的 50 億美元股票回購授權，取代了我們現有的授權。最後，在過去的 2.5 年裡，我們幾乎從根本上改進了我們業務的每個方面，而我們才剛剛起步。不確定性創造機會，而這個團隊已經證明它已準備好迎接挑戰。所以謝謝你的聆聽。現在我會把電話轉給布賴恩。

Thanks, Carol, and good morning. In my comments, I'll cover 3 areas. Starting with our fourth quarter results, then I'll review our full year 2022 results, including cash and share owner returns. And lastly, I'll provide comments on expectations for the macro environment and our financial outlook for 2023. In the fourth quarter, the macro environment was challenging. In the U.S., inflation-sensitive consumers returned to more pre-pandemic shopping patterns and holiday retail sales were lower than expected, especially after Cyber Week.

謝謝，卡羅爾，早上好。在我的評論中，我將涵蓋 3 個方面。從我們的第四季度業績開始，然後我將回顧我們 2022 年的全年業績，包括現金和股東回報。最後，我將對宏觀環境的預期和我們對 2023 年的財務展望發表評論。第四季度，宏觀環境充滿挑戰。在美國，對通貨膨脹敏感的消費者恢復了更多大流行前的購物模式，假日零售額低於預期，尤其是在網絡週之後。

Internationally, demand in Europe remained under pressure. Ocean and air freight rates declined and exports out of Asia worsened due to COVID conditions in China. Despite these conditions in the fourth quarter, we responded quickly and again delivered for our customers and share owners. In the fourth quarter, consolidated revenue was $27 billion, down 2.7% from the fourth quarter of last year, and operating profit was $3.8 billion, a decrease of 3.3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

國際上，歐洲的需求仍然承壓。由於中國的 COVID 情況，海運和空運費率下降，亞洲出口惡化。儘管第四季度出現了這些情況，我們還是迅速做出反應，再次為我們的客戶和股東交付了成果。第四季度合併收入為270億美元，比去年第四季度下降2.7%，營業利潤為38億美元，比去年第四季度下降3.3%。

Consolidated operating margin was 14.1% for the quarter, down 10 basis points from the same time period last year. For the fourth quarter, diluted earnings per share was $3.62, up 0.8% from the same period last year. Now let's look at our business segments. In U.S. Domestic, revenue quality initiatives more than offset the decline in volume and drove strong fourth quarter results. In the fourth quarter, average daily volume was down 3.8% versus the same time period last year with about half of the decrease coming from our largest customer per the mutually beneficial contractual agreement we reached some time ago.

本季度綜合營業利潤率為 14.1%，比去年同期下降 10 個基點。第四季度，每股攤薄收益為 3.62 美元，比去年同期增長 0.8%。現在讓我們看看我們的業務部門。在美國國內，收入質量舉措不僅抵消了銷量下降的影響，還推動了強勁的第四季度業績。在第四季度，平均每日交易量與去年同期相比下降了 3.8%，根據我們前段時間達成的互惠合同協議，其中約一半的減少來自我們最大的客戶。

In the fourth quarter, volume in October and November came in as we expected, including a surge in late November from Black Friday through Cyber Week. In December, volume fell short of our expectations, reflecting consumer spending cutbacks at the height of the holiday season. B2C average daily volume declined 3% in the fourth quarter compared to last year. B2B average daily volume in the fourth quarter was down 5.2% year-over-year, driven by declines in retail and industry sectors that are more sensitive to rising interest rates like manufacturing and distribution.

在第四季度，10 月和 11 月的交易量如我們預期的那樣出現，包括 11 月下旬從黑色星期五到網絡週期間的激增。 12 月，交易量低於我們的預期，反映出消費者在假期旺季削減支出。與去年同期相比，第四季度 B2C 日均交易量下降了 3%。第四季度 B2B 日均交易量同比下降 5.2%，這是受零售和對製造業和分銷等利率上升更為敏感的工業部門下滑的推動。

In the fourth quarter, B2B represented 35.3% of our volume, which was down slightly from 35.8% in the same time period last year. Looking at customer mix, SMBs made up 26.5% of our total U.S. Domestic volume in the fourth quarter, an increase of 70 basis points from 1 year ago and the 10th consecutive quarter of increased SMB penetration. For the quarter, U.S. Domestic generated revenue of $18.3 billion, up 3.1%.

第四季度，B2B 占我們交易量的 35.3%，略低於去年同期的 35.8%。從客戶組合來看，第四季度中小型企業占我們美國國內總銷量的 26.5%，比一年前增加 70 個基點，連續第 10 個季度增加中小型企業的滲透率。本季度，美國國內收入為 183 億美元，增長 3.1%。

Revenue per piece increased 7.2%, driven by revenue quality, which more than offset the decline in volume. Improvements in base pricing more than offset a small decline due to product mix and together drove about half of the revenue per piece growth rate increase. The remaining half of the revenue per piece growth rate increase was driven by the combination of higher fuel price per gallon and our fuel pricing actions.

在收入質量的推動下，每件收入增長了 7.2%，這大大抵消了銷量的下降。基礎定價的改善大大抵消了產品組合導致的小幅下降，並共同推動了每件收入增長率增長的一半左右。每件收入增長率增長的剩餘一半是由每加侖更高的燃油價格和我們的燃油定價行動共同推動的。

Turning to costs. Total expense grew 2.5%. First, higher fuel costs contributed about 150 basis points of the total expense growth rate increase. Second, higher wages and benefit expense contributed 150 basis points of the increase. Total union wage rates were up 5.6% in the fourth quarter, driven by the annual wage increase and cost of living adjustment for our Teamster employees that went into effect in August of 2022.

轉向成本。總費用增長 2.5%。首先，較高的燃料成本為總費用增長率貢獻了約 150 個基點。其次，更高的工資和福利支出貢獻了 150 個基點的增長。受 2022 年 8 月生效的 Teamster 員工年度工資增長和生活成本調整的推動，第四季度工會總工資率上漲了 5.6%。

Productivity initiatives helped partially offset the increase in expense. For example, Total Service Plan has improved driver dispatch time by 7.9% since its launch in July 2022. This is helping us run an on-time network. And in the fourth quarter, we increased total productivity by 1.6% as defined by pieces per hour. Lower purchase transportation expenditures reduced the total expense growth rate by around 140 basis points, primarily from utilizing UPS feeder drivers to support our fastest ground ever and continued optimization efforts.

生產力舉措幫助部分抵消了費用的增加。例如，自 2022 年 7 月推出以來，Total Service Plan 已將司機調度時間縮短了 7.9%。這有助於我們運行準時網絡。在第四季度，我們將總生產率提高了 1.6%（按每小時件數計算）。較低的採購運輸支出使總支出增長率降低了約 140 個基點，這主要是由於利用 UPS 支線司機來支持我們有史以來最快的地面和持續的優化工作。

And the remaining expense growth rate increase was driven by multiple factors, including maintenance and depreciation. Looking specifically at our peak period, our sales, engineering and operating teams planned and executed another successful peak. We used our technology to maximize the agility of our integrated network, including our newest regional hub in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, all of which enabled us to respond to changes in volume levels and difficult weather as winter storms rolled across the country close to Christmas.

剩餘費用增長率的增長是由多種因素驅動的，包括維護和折舊。具體來看我們的高峰期，我們的銷售、工程和運營團隊計劃並執行了另一個成功的高峰期。我們使用我們的技術來最大限度地提高我們集成網絡的敏捷性，包括我們在賓夕法尼亞州哈里斯堡的最新區域中心，所有這些都使我們能夠在聖誕節臨近冬季風暴席捲全國時應對流量水平的變化和惡劣的天氣。

Our network never stopped, and we provided industry-leading service to our customers for the fifth year in a row. The U.S. Domestic segment delivered $2.3 billion in operating profit, up 7.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. And operating margin was 12.8%, a year-over-year increase of 60 basis points. Moving to our International segment. The macro environment was challenging and resulted in lower volume than we anticipated in the fourth quarter.

我們的網絡從未停止，我們連續第五年為客戶提供行業領先的服務。美國國內業務實現營業利潤 23 億美元，比 2021 年第四季度增長 7.5%。營業利潤率為 12.8%，同比增長 60 個基點。轉到我們的國際部分。宏觀環境充滿挑戰，導致第四季度的銷量低於我們的預期。

We leveraged the agility of our global network to quickly adjust capacity while delivering excellent service to customers. In the fourth quarter, International average daily volume was down 8.6%. The decline was primarily driven by a 12.9% decrease in domestic average daily volume and weakness out of Asia due to COVID. Total export average daily volume in the fourth quarter declined 4% on a year-over-year basis.

我們利用全球網絡的敏捷性來快速調整容量，同時為客戶提供優質服務。第四季度，國際日均交易量下降了 8.6%。下降的主要原因是國內日均交易量下降 12.9% 以及 COVID 導致亞洲以外地區疲軟。第四季度日均出口總量同比下降 4%。

Asia export average daily volume declined 10.3%, driven by lower global demand and disruptions to manufacturing output from the changes in China's COVID policy. In response, we quickly adjusted the network and canceled over 200 of our China and Hong Kong origin flights, maintained high service levels and achieved a payload utilization of over 98% on our Asia outbound intercontinental flights.

亞洲出口日均量下降 10.3%，原因是全球需求下降以及中國 COVID 政策變化導致製造業產出中斷。對此，我們迅速調整網絡，取消200多個中港始發航班，保持高水平服務，亞洲出港洲際航班有效載荷利用率超過98%。

In the fourth quarter, International revenue was $5 billion, down 8.3% from last year due to the decline in volume and a $321 million negative impact from currency. Revenue per piece was relatively flat year-over-year, but there were a number of moving parts, including a 660 basis point decline due to a stronger U.S. dollar, a 540 basis point increase from fuel surcharges and the remaining increase of 100 basis points was due to the combination of multiple factors, including favorable product mix, base price increases and lower demand-related surcharge revenue.

第四季度，國際收入為 50 億美元，比去年下降 8.3%，原因是銷量下降以及 3.21 億美元的貨幣負面影響。每件收入同比相對持平，但有一些變動因素，包括美元走強導致下降 660 個基點，燃油附加費增加 540 個基點，其餘增加 100 個基點這是多種因素共同作用的結果，包括有利的產品組合、底價上漲和與需求相關的附加費收入下降。

Operating profit in the International segment was $1.1 billion, down $240 million from last year due to a $139 million reduction in demand-related surcharge revenue and a $98 million negative impact from currency. Operating margin in the fourth quarter was 22%. Now looking at Supply Chain Solutions. In the fourth quarter, revenue was $3.8 billion, down $846 million year-over-year.

國際業務的營業利潤為 11 億美元，比去年減少 2.4 億美元，原因是與需求相關的附加費收入減少了 1.39 億美元，貨幣帶來的負面影響為 9800 萬美元。第四季度的營業利潤率為 22%。現在正在研究供應鏈解決方案。第四季度收入為 38 億美元，同比下降 8.46 億美元。

Looking at the key drivers. In Forwarding, softer global demand drove down volume and market rates more than we expected, resulting in lower revenue and operating profit. Logistics partially offset the declines in Forwarding and delivered double-digit revenue and operating profit growth driven by gains in our complex Healthcare business from cold chain and clinical trials customers.

查看關鍵驅動因素。在貨運業務方面，全球需求疲軟導致銷量和市場費率的下降幅度超出了我們的預期，導致收入和營業利潤下降。物流部分抵消了貨運業務的下滑，並實現了兩位數的收入和營業利潤增長，這得益於我們複雜的醫療保健業務從冷鍊和臨床試驗客戶那裡獲得的收益。

In the fourth quarter, Supply Chain Solutions generated an operating profit of $403 million, and operating margin was 10.5%. Walking through the rest of the income statement, we had $182 million of interest expense. Our other pension income was $297 million, and our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was 22.4%. Now let me comment on our full year 2022 results. In 2022, we remain focused on controlling what we could control and provided excellent service to our customers, which enabled us to deliver our consolidated operating margin and return on invested capital targets.

第四季度，供應鏈解決方案實現營業利潤 4.03 億美元，營業利潤率為 10.5%。瀏覽損益表的其餘部分，我們有 1.82 億美元的利息支出。我們的其他養老金收入為 2.97 億美元，第四季度的有效稅率為 22.4%。現在讓我評論一下我們 2022 年的全年業績。到 2022 年，我們將繼續專注於控制我們可以控制的東西並為我們的客戶提供優質服務，這使我們能夠實現我們的綜合營業利潤率和投資資本回報率目標。

A few consolidated highlights. Revenue reached $100.3 billion, an increase of $3.1 billion over 2021. This was $1.7 billion below our $102 billion revenue target, but included a $1.3 billion year-over-year negative impact from currency. In 2022, we generated operating profit of $13.9 billion, an increase of 5.4% over full year 2021. Consolidated operating margin was 13.8%, an increase of 30 basis points.

一些綜合亮點。收入達到 1003 億美元，比 2021 年增加 31 億美元。這比我們 1020 億美元的收入目標低 17 億美元，但包括貨幣帶來的 13 億美元同比負面影響。 2022 年，我們實現營業利潤 139 億美元，比 2021 年全年增長 5.4%。綜合營業利潤率為 13.8%，增長 30 個基點。

We increased our ROIC to 31.3%, up 50 basis points compared to last year. We generated $14.1 billion in cash from operations and continued to follow our capital allocation priorities. We invested $4.8 billion in CapEx. Additionally, we acquired Bomi Group and Delivery Solutions and made an investment in CommerceHub. We distributed $5.1 billion in dividends, which represented a 49% increase on a per share basis over 2021.

我們將 ROIC 提高到 31.3%，比去年提高了 50 個基點。我們從運營中產生了 141 億美元的現金，並繼續遵循我們的資本分配優先事項。我們在資本支出上投資了 48 億美元。此外，我們還收購了 Bomi Group 和 Delivery Solutions，並對 CommerceHub 進行了投資。我們分配了 51 億美元的股息，與 2021 年相比每股增長 49%。

We repaid $2 billion in debt that matured during the year, and our net pension liability decreased by over $3 billion, both of which helped us reach our targeted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.4 turns, giving us ample financial flexibility to continue deploying capital to create value for our share owners. Lastly, we completed $3.5 billion in share buybacks in 2022. And in the segments for the full year, in U.S. Domestic, operating profit was $7.6 billion, up 12.8%, and we expanded operating margin to 11.8%, a year-over-year increase of 70 basis points.

我們償還了當年到期的 20 億美元債務，我們的淨養老金負債減少了超過 30 億美元，這兩者都幫助我們達到了 1.4 倍的目標債務與 EBITDA 比率，使我們有足夠的財務靈活性來繼續部署資本為我們的股東創造價值。最後，我們在 2022 年完成了 35 億美元的股票回購。在全年的細分市場中，在美國國內，營業利潤為 76 億美元，增長 12.8%，營業利潤率同比擴大至 11.8%增加 70 個基點。

The International segment generated $4.4 billion in operating profit, and operating margin was 22.4%. And Supply Chain Solutions delivered operating profit of $1.9 billion, an increase of $153 million and operating margin was 11.3%, an increase of 150 basis points over 2021. Moving to our outlook for 2023. We expect 2023 to be a bumpy year due to rising interest rates, decades high inflation, recession forecasts, a war in Eastern Europe, COVID disruptions in China and our U.S. labor negotiations. While we anchor our plans to S&P Global's economic forecast, we have developed multiple planned scenarios that will help us quickly pivot in an uncertain macro environment.

國際部門產生了 44 億美元的營業利潤，營業利潤率為 22.4%。供應鏈解決方案實現了 19 億美元的營業利潤，增加了 1.53 億美元，營業利潤率為 11.3%，比 2021 年增加了 150 個基點。轉向我們對 2023 年的展望。我們預計 2023 年將是顛簸的一年，因為增長利率、數十年的高通脹、衰退預測、東歐戰爭、中國的 COVID 中斷以及我們的美國勞資談判。雖然我們將我們的計劃錨定在標準普爾全球的經濟預測上，但我們已經制定了多個計劃情景，這些情景將幫助我們在不確定的宏觀環境中快速轉向。

Further given our financial strength and solid cash position, we are increasing strategic investments to enhance our ability to capture growth opportunities as we come out of this cycle. I'd like to share 2 of those scenarios with you now, which are the basis for the guidance we are providing this year. The first is our base case that delivers the high end of the target range, and the second scenario includes additional top line risks and represents the low end of the range.

進一步考慮到我們的財務實力和穩固的現金狀況，我們正在增加戰略投資，以增強我們在走出這個週期時抓住增長機會的能力。我現在想與您分享其中兩個場景，它們是我們今年提供的指南的基礎。第一個是我們的基本案例，它提供了目標範圍的高端，第二個場景包括額外的頂線風險並代表了範圍的低端。

Let's start with our assumptions for the base case at a segment level. In the U.S., we expect a mild recession in the first half of the year, with a moderate recovery in the second half of the year. In the U.S. Domestic segment, we anticipate average daily volume will be down slightly due to our continued volume lie down from our contractual agreement with our largest customer, which will be nearly offset with growth from SMB and other enterprise customers.

讓我們從我們對細分市場基本案例的假設開始。在美國，我們預計上半年將出現溫和衰退，下半年將溫和復蘇。在美國國內部分，我們預計平均每日交易量將略有下降，因為我們與最大客戶的合同協議中的交易量持續下降，這將幾乎被 SMB 和其他企業客戶的增長所抵消。

And we expect volume growth to be better in the second half of the year compared to the first. We also expect the revenue growth rate to be low single digits. On the cost side, while we will manage the network to match volume levels, we have increased both capital and operating expenses for projects that drive efficiency and growth. One example is the accelerated deployment of our Smart Packaged, Smart Facility initiative to all remaining U.S. facilities, which we plan to complete by the end of the year.

與上半年相比，我們預計下半年的銷量增長會更好。我們還預計收入增長率將為低個位數。在成本方面，雖然我們將管理網絡以匹配數量水平，但我們增加了用於提高效率和增長的項目的資本和運營支出。一個例子是我們計劃在今年年底前將我們的智能打包、智能設施計劃加速部署到所有剩餘的美國設施。

And on the growth front, we will continue to invest in improving the customer experience. Putting it all together, we expect to grow revenue per piece at a faster rate than cost per piece and expand full year Domestic operating margin to 12%. Turning to International in 2023. In our base case plan, we expect a recession in Europe in the first half of the year. And in China, we expect weak demand in the first quarter with recovery beginning in the second quarter.

在增長方面，我們將繼續投資改善客戶體驗。綜上所述，我們預計每件收入的增長速度將快於每件成本，並將全年國內營業利潤率擴大至 12%。轉向 2023 年的國際市場。在我們的基本情景計劃中，我們預計歐洲將在今年上半年出現衰退。在中國，我們預計第一季度需求疲軟，第二季度開始復蘇。

We are accelerating initiatives like International DAP to help us gain share and partially offset macroeconomic softness. We anticipate International average daily volume will decline by low single digits, with volume growth better in the second half of the year compared to the first. We expect revenue to decline by low single digits, including reductions in demand-related surcharges. We will continue to manage our costs with agility and expect to generate an operating margin of around 21%.

我們正在加速實施國際 DAP 等舉措，以幫助我們獲得份額並部分抵消宏觀經濟疲軟的影響。我們預計國際日均交易量將以低個位數下降，與上半年相比，下半年的交易量增長會更好。我們預計收入將以低個位數下降，包括與需求相關的附加費的減少。我們將繼續靈活地管理我們的成本，並期望產生約 21% 的營業利潤率。

Turning to Supply Chain Solutions. We expect revenue to be around $14.6 billion as forwarding volumes will remain challenged and market rates will fall from year-end 2022 levels. We expect to partially offset declines in forwarding revenue from double-digit growth in our health care business, resulting in an operating margin of nearly 11%. In our downside plan, which represents the low end of our range, we start with our base case assumptions for all segments and layer in the following.

轉向供應鏈解決方案。我們預計收入約為 146 億美元，因為貨運量仍將面臨挑戰，市場費率將從 2022 年底的水平下降。我們預計將部分抵消我們醫療保健業務兩位數增長帶來的轉運收入下降，從而使營業利潤率接近 11%。在代表我們範圍低端的下行計劃中，我們從以下所有細分市場和層的基本案例假設開始。

In U.S. Domestic, we reduced expected enterprise and SMB volume growth rates resulting in a full year volume decline of around 3% versus 2022. In International, we layer in weaker demand out of Asia for the entire first half of the year and a slower recovery in Europe in the second half of the year resulting in a mid-single-digit decline in average daily volume.

在美國國內，我們降低了預期的企業和 SMB 銷量增長率，導致全年銷量與 2022 年相比下降了約 3%。在國際市場，我們將整個上半年亞洲的需求疲軟和復蘇放緩進行了分層下半年在歐洲，導致日均交易量出現中等個位數的下降。

And in Supply Chain Solutions, we lowered our assumptions for air and ocean freight forwarding market volume and rates, which reduced full year revenue for Supply Chain Solutions by around $200 million. Bringing it all together, for the full year 2023, we expect consolidated revenues to be between $97 billion and $99.4 billion and consolidated operating margin to be between 12.8% and 13.6% with more than half of our operating profit coming in the second half of the year.

在供應鏈解決方案方面，我們降低了對空運和海運貨運代理市場容量和費率的假設，這使供應鏈解決方案的全年收入減少了約 2 億美元。綜上所述，到 2023 年全年，我們預計綜合收入將在 970 億美元至 994 億美元之間，綜合營業利潤率將在 12.8% 至 13.6% 之間，其中一半以上的營業利潤來自下半年。年。

Now turning to pension. There are a couple of factors to keep in mind as you update your models. First, beginning in 2023, we froze our defined benefit pension plan for U.S. nonunion employees and have replaced it with enhanced 401(k) benefits. Second, high discount rates at the end of 2022 will result in lower service costs in 2023. Above the line, we expect the combination of these 2 factors will reduce operating expenses by approximately $420 million in 2023 with around 90% of the reduction in the U.S. Domestic segment.

現在轉向養老。更新模型時需要牢記幾個因素。首先，從 2023 年開始，我們凍結了針對美國非工會僱員的固定收益養老金計劃，並用增強型 401(k) 福利取而代之。其次，2022 年底的高貼現率將導致 2023 年的服務成本降低。總而言之，我們預計這兩個因素的結合將在 2023 年減少約 4.2 億美元的運營費用，其中約 90% 的費用減少美國國內部分。

Below the line, we expect pension income of around $260 million for the full year 2023, which is $930 million less than in 2022, primarily due to higher interest rates, resulting in an increase in pension interest expense and a reduction in the value of our pension assets from market performance in 2022. We've included a few slides in the appendix of today's webcast deck to provide you more detail. The webcast deck will be posted to the UPS Investor Relations website following this call.

在此線之下，我們預計 2023 年全年的養老金收入約為 2.6 億美元，比 2022 年減少 9.3 億美元，這主要是由於利率上升，導致養老金利息支出增加以及我們的價值下降從 2022 年的市場表現來看養老金資產。我們在今天的網絡直播平台的附錄中包含了一些幻燈片，以便為您提供更多詳細信息。此次電話會議後，網絡直播平台將發佈到 UPS 投資者關係網站。

Now let's turn to full year 2023 capital allocation. Our capital priorities have not changed and we will continue to make the best long-term investment decisions that will keep us on strategy and enable us to strengthen our customer value proposition and capture growth coming out of this cycle. We expect 2023 capital expenditures to be about $5.3 billion, and here are a few project highlights. We will invest $2.4 billion in buildings and facilities to add automated sort capabilities and increase efficiency across the network and we'll add 2.4 million square feet of health care logistics space to our global network.

現在讓我們轉向 2023 年全年的資本配置。我們的資本優先事項沒有改變，我們將繼續做出最佳的長期投資決策，這將使我們保持戰略並使我們能夠加強我們的客戶價值主張並抓住這個週期帶來的增長。我們預計 2023 年的資本支出約為 53 億美元，以下是一些項目亮點。我們將投資 24 億美元用於建築物和設施，以增加自動分揀功能並提高整個網絡的效率，我們還將為我們的全球網絡增加 240 萬平方英尺的醫療保健物流空間。

We will invest $1.3 billion in vehicles, including adding more than 2,400 alternative fuel vehicles to our fleet. We will invest $745 million in our air fleet, including taking delivery of seven 767 aircraft in 2023. And in terms of IT, we will invest $830 million, which includes accelerating the rollout of Smart Package, Smart Facility in the U.S., continuing to develop our delivery density solutions and building out our logistics as a service platform.

我們將投資 13 億美元用於車輛，包括為我們的車隊增加 2,400 多輛替代燃料汽車。我們將在我們的機隊上投資 7.45 億美元，包括在 2023 年接收 7 架 767 飛機。在 IT 方面，我們將投資 8.3 億美元，其中包括加快在美國推出 Smart Package、Smart Facility，繼續發展我們的交付密度解決方案，並構建我們的物流即服務平台。

And lastly, across these projects and others, over $1 billion of investment will support our carbon neutral goals. Now let's turn to our expectations for cash and the balance sheet. We expect free cash flow to be around $8 billion in our base case. Consistent with our policy of a stable and growing dividend, the Board has approved a dividend per share of $1.62 for the first quarter, which represents a 6.6% increase in our dividend.

最後，在這些項目和其他項目中，超過 10 億美元的投資將支持我們的碳中和目標。現在讓我們轉向對現金和資產負債表的預期。在我們的基本案例中，我們預計自由現金流約為 80 億美元。與我們穩定和增長的股息政策一致，董事會已批准第一季度每股股息 1.62 美元，這意味著我們的股息增加了 6.6%。

We are planning to pay out around $5.4 billion in dividends in 2023, subject to Board approval. We plan to buy back around $3 billion of our shares. And finally, our effective tax rate is expected to be around 23.5% with the tax rate higher in the first quarter compared to the rest of the year due to the timing of our employee stock awards. In closing, we are focused on controlling what we can control, and we will continue to invest in our business to balance efficiency and growth opportunities under our better and bolder framework.

經董事會批准，我們計劃在 2023 年支付約 54 億美元的股息。我們計劃回購約 30 億美元的股票。最後，由於員工股票獎勵的時間安排，我們的實際稅率預計約為 23.5%，第一季度的稅率高於今年剩餘時間。最後，我們專注於控制我們可以控制的東西，我們將繼續投資於我們的業務，以在我們更好、更大膽的框架下平衡效率和增長機會。

The fundamental changes we've made to our business coupled with the continued execution of our strategy will help us navigate what's ahead in 2023. Thank you, and operator, please open the lines.

我們對業務所做的根本性改變以及我們戰略的持續執行將幫助我們在 2023 年駕馭未來。謝謝，運營商，請開通線路。

And Stephen, one note before we do that, we did experience a technical difficulty with the webcast this morning. So apologies to those of you who missed a portion of our prepared remarks. We plan to post the full recording of today's call to our Investor Relations website shortly after the completion of our call. So Stephen, please open the lines.

斯蒂芬，在我們這樣做之前請注意，今天早上我們在網絡廣播中確實遇到了技術困難。因此，對於那些錯過了我們準備好的部分評論的人，我們深表歉意。我們計劃在電話會議結束後不久將今天電話會議的完整錄音發佈到我們的投資者關係網站。斯蒂芬，請打開線路。

(Operator Instructions). Our first question will come from the line of Amit Mehrotra of Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）。我們的第一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Brian, that was really helpful guidance framework. So I appreciate that. A couple of just clarification points. I guess the net service cost benefit is 0 in Domestic if I look at the service component. I'm just trying to understand how much of that margin uplift is actually a gross and net service. I don't know if you talked about -- I might have missed it, sorry, there are a lot of numbers there, if you talked about the financial impact from what you're assuming on the new labor deal.

布賴恩，那是非常有用的指導框架。所以我很感激。幾個澄清點。如果我查看服務組件，我猜國內的淨服務成本收益為 0。我只是想了解利潤率提升中有多少實際上是一項總服務和淨服務。我不知道你是否談到過——我可能錯過了，抱歉，那裡有很多數字，如果你談到你對新勞工協議的假設所帶來的財務影響。

So if you could just talk about those 2 items? And then Carol, there's a lot of rhetoric that's heating up on the labor contract. It seems like every day we wake up, there's a new big article about it. Wondering what your message is to enterprise customers that may start to get a little bit uneasy with all the rhetoric that's heating up out there?

那麼，您是否可以談談這兩項？然後卡羅爾，有很多關於勞動合同的言論正在升溫。似乎我們每天醒來，都有一篇關於它的新大文章。想知道您對企業客戶的信息是什麼，他們可能開始對那裡升溫的所有言論感到有點不安？

Thanks, Amit. I'll get started. We had about $420 million of benefit to our consolidated operating cost and that, Amit, is being offset with investments. So that $420 million specifically, I think you were talking about the Domestic business, which is $380 million of the $420 million, which is worth about $0.07 on a CPP.

謝謝，阿米特。我會開始的。我們從綜合運營成本中獲得了大約 4.2 億美元的收益，而 Amit 正在用投資抵消這一收益。所以那 4.2 億美元，我想你是在談論國內業務，這是 4.2 億美元中的 3.8 億美元，在 CPP 上價值約 0.07 美元。

So when you think about the investments we're going to make into the business, which are about $400 million, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, that basically offsets the pension service cost impact to Domestic. So it's more of a one for one. On the labor front, so we've modeled in rates in both our base and our downside scenario, Amit. And I'm not going to get into the wage and benefit component of that, but I guess there's a broader labor question in there.

因此，當你考慮我們將要對該業務進行的投資時，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，大約 4 億美元，這基本上抵消了養老金服務成本對國內的影響。所以它更像是一對一。在勞動力方面，我們已經在基本情景和下行情景中對利率進行了建模，阿米特。我不打算討論其中的工資和福利部分，但我想那裡有一個更廣泛的勞工問題。

And I'm happy to address the labor question. Without getting into the details of what will take place at the bargaining table, I think it's important to remember that Teamsters have been part of the UPS family for more than 100 years. So over 10 decades, we've negotiated many, many contracts. This is not our first raw deal. Our approach with the Teamsters is win-win-win. Win for the Teamsters, win for our employees and win for UPS and our customers.

我很高興解決勞工問題。在不深入討論談判桌上將發生什麼的細節的情況下，我認為重要的是要記住，Teamsters 已經成為 UPS 家族的一部分超過 100 年。十多年來，我們談判了很多很多合同。這不是我們的第一筆不公平交易。我們與 Teamsters 的合作方式是雙贏。為 Teamsters 贏得勝利，為我們的員工贏得勝利，為 UPS 和我們的客戶贏得勝利。

Now, Amit, to your observations, there have been a lot of articles and headlines recently that might cause someone to question whether or not a win-win-win is achievable. But I would submit that a win-win-win is very achievable because we are not far apart on the issues. And let me make this real for you by giving you a few examples. First, both Teamsters and UPS agree that a healthy and growing UPS is good; good for Teamsters, good for our people and good for our customers.

現在，阿米特，根據你的觀察，最近有很多文章和頭條新聞可能會引起一些人質疑雙贏是否可以實現。但我認為，三贏是可以實現的，因為我們在這些問題上的分歧並不大。讓我通過舉幾個例子來為你實現這一點。首先，Teamsters 和 UPS 都認為健康成長的 UPS 是好的；有利於卡車司機，有利於我們的員工，也有利於我們的客戶。

In fact, we've added more than 70,000 Teamster jobs since 2018. So we're aligned that a growing and healthy UPS is good. To be growing and healthy, we need to be competitive and make sure that our offerings meet the needs of our customers, and a lot has changed since the last time we negotiated our contract. Recipients want their packages delivered when, where and how they want them delivered, which means we can delivery while it's become tablespace.

事實上，自 2018 年以來，我們已經增加了 70,000 多個 Teamster 工作崗位。因此，我們一致認為，不斷發展且健康的 UPS 是好的。為了成長和健康，我們需要具有競爭力，並確保我們的產品滿足客戶的需求，自從我們上次談判合同以來，發生了很多變化。收件人希望他們的包裹在他們希望的時間、地點和方式交付，這意味著我們可以在它成為表空間時交付。

Teamsters fully acknowledge that, but have worried about the pressures placed on our workforce with weekend operations. And they refer to that to the sixth punch, which is when people worked 6 days a week or 22.4 drivers. We show the same concerns. I don't want people working 6 days a week unless they want to. So we're aligned on this. We just need to get to the bargaining table and work it out. And candidly, we think with just a few tweaks to our existing contract, we can work this out.

Teamsters 完全承認這一點，但擔心週末運營給我們的員工帶來的壓力。他們指的是第六次打擊，即人們每週工作 6 天或 22.4 名司機。我們表現出同樣的擔憂。我不希望人們每週工作 6 天，除非他們願意。所以我們在這一點上是一致的。我們只需要到談判桌前解決問題。坦率地說，我們認為只需對現有合同進行一些調整，我們就可以解決這個問題。

So we're not far apart. We're aligned. We just need to work it out. Another matter that's come up is heat. There can be no dispute sadly that the earth is heating up. And that puts an uncomfortable situation on our employees in the height of the summer. Safety is our #1 priority for our people. So we're not a part of this issue. In fact, we're not waiting for the bargaining table. We've already kicked off a total revamp of our safety program, bringing in new technology, hydration, cooling systems and a whole lot more to address heat.

所以我們離得不遠。我們是一致的。我們只需要解決它。另一個問題是熱量。可悲的是，地球正在升溫是毫無爭議的。這讓我們的員工在盛夏時節感到不舒服。安全是我們員工的第一要務。所以我們不是這個問題的一部分。事實上，我們不是在等待談判桌。我們已經開始對我們的安全計劃進行全面改造，引入新技術、水合作用、冷卻系統以及更多其他措施來解決高溫問題。

So we're not apart. We're going to do the right thing for our people. So those are just a few examples of where I see a win-win-win is achievable. In fact, I'm committed to delivering with the rest of the team a win-win-win contract before the end of July.

所以我們沒有分開。我們將為我們的人民做正確的事。所以這些只是我認為可以實現雙贏的幾個例子。事實上，我承諾在 7 月底之前與團隊其他成員簽訂一份雙贏的合同。

Our next question will come from the line of Tom Wadewitz of UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Tom Wadewitz。

Wanted to ask if -- Brian, if you could run through the productivity programs and put some ballpark around the impact that you expect Smart Package, Smart Facility TSP, if you have other programs that are notable so we can have a little more visibility on how to think about productivity in -- and I'm thinking in Domestic package in 2023?

想問的是——布賴恩，你是否可以運行生產力計劃並圍繞你期望的智能包、智能設施 TSP 的影響做一些大概的估計，如果你有其他值得注意的計劃，那麼我們可以更清楚地了解如何考慮生產力——我在考慮 2023 年的國內套餐？

Sure, Tom. Well, look, Nando and the team have done a great job in pivoting and really driving productivity in the fourth quarter. They did an outstanding job, and we're calling for low single-digit on our TPP in 2023. I referenced some of the investments that I think you're talking about in terms of Smart Package, Smart Facility. Maybe if I unpack those, you get a sense of where we're investing.

當然，湯姆。好吧，你看，Nando 和團隊在第四季度的轉型和真正提高生產力方面做得很好。他們做得很出色，我們呼籲在 2023 年將 TPP 降到個位數。我提到了一些我認為你在智能包裝、智能設施方面談論的投資。也許如果我打開包裝，您就會了解我們的投資方向。

So Smart Package, Smart Facility, that really drives productivity inside the buildings, but it also improves the customer experience by reducing misloads. I think misloads today are running about 1 in 400 post the Smart Package, Smart Facility, will be up at 1 in 800. And there's a path to something higher beyond that. And then there's accelerating pilots for Phase 2, which is Smart Package car.

智能包裝，智能設施，真正提高了建築物內的生產力，但它也通過減少錯誤加載來改善客戶體驗。我認為今天的錯誤加載大約是 400 分之一，智能包、智能設施將上升到 800 分之一。而且還有一條通往更高水平的道路。然後是第二階段的加速試點，即智能包裹汽車。

Another area we're investing in, probably the second largest is health care. That's a great growth business for us. We're going to be adding about 2.4 million square feet in warehouse space next year, some of that outside the U.S., half in EU and half in Americas. And then DAP has been a great performer for us. We're going to continue to invest in the DAP program, both domestically and internationally, enhancing the plug-and-play and having brokerage and UPS access points in terms of capability.

我們正在投資的另一個領域，可能是第二大領域是醫療保健。這對我們來說是一個巨大的增長業務。明年我們將增加約 240 萬平方英尺的倉庫空間，其中一些在美國以外，一半在歐盟，一半在美洲。然後 DAP 對我們來說是一個偉大的表演者。我們將繼續在國內和國際上投資 DAP 計劃，增強即插即用，並在能力方面擁有經紀和 UPS 接入點。

And then there's further investments into the customer experience and next-gen brokerage. So Tom, I think we have a lot of confidence in terms of the ability to drive total service plans, the investments we're making in Smart Package; Smart Facility, health care, DAP. And that's what's contributing to the low single-digit CPP in 2023.

然後是對客戶體驗和下一代經紀業務的進一步投資。所以湯姆，我認為我們對推動整體服務計劃的能力以及我們在 Smart Package 上的投資充滿信心；智能設施、醫療保健、DAP。這就是導致 2023 年低個位數 CPP 的原因。

And maybe just to dimensionalize it a little bit more. In the fourth quarter alone in the United States, productivity reduced our expense by $271 million. I mean, that's a lot, that's a lot. I'm really proud of the team. And just on Smart Package, Smart Facility because I'm just so enthralled with this project, we have -- of the 100 buildings that we're in, we have 50 buildings where the misloads are now 1 in 1000. That's 6 Sigma perfection. So we're really excited about rolling it out to the 940 remaining buildings in the United States.

也許只是將其維度化一點。僅在美國第四季度，生產力就使我們的開支減少了 2.71 億美元。我的意思是，很多，很多。我真的為球隊感到驕傲。就 Smart Package，Smart Facility 因為我對這個項目非常著迷，我們有 - 在我們所在的 100 座建築物中，我們有 50 座建築物現在的誤載率為千分之一。這就是 6 Sigma 完美.所以我們真的很高興能將它推廣到美國剩下的 940 座建築物。

And here's the cool thing. We're going to roll out the first part of those buildings with wearable devices, but then we've got plans to move away from the devices and actually make the car smart. And last week, I was able to load a package, this is in a laboratory, I was able to load a package onto a smart car and saw the car actually checking the package, no human being did that. So this is way cool technology, and we're excited about the productivity that that's going to bring as a result.

這是很酷的事情。我們將推出帶有可穿戴設備的這些建築物的第一部分，但隨後我們計劃遠離這些設備，並真正讓汽車變得智能。上週，我能夠裝載一個包裹，這是在實驗室裡，我能夠將一個包裹裝載到一輛智能汽車上，看到汽車實際檢查包裹，沒有人這樣做。所以這是一項很酷的技術，我們對由此帶來的生產力感到興奮。

And to Tom, just from a seasonality perspective, we have planned productivity gains year-over-year in every quarter in '23. And so, Nando and the team will be reducing hours more than volume in the U.S. through the programs Carol and I just alluded to TSP and the automated capacity. So it's a balanced program.

對湯姆來說，僅從季節性角度來看，我們計劃在 23 年的每個季度實現生產率同比增長。因此，Nando 和團隊將通過 Carol 和我剛剛提到的 TSP 和自動化產能計劃，減少美國的工作時間，而不是數量。所以這是一個平衡的程序。

Our next question comes from the line of David Vernon of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的大衛弗農。

So if you step back from the guidance at the midpoint, your EBIT number is down, call it, 6% from 2023 levels. And obviously, we are coming into a choppy macro. Carol or Brian, can you talk about the levers that you need to pull to kind of get reaccelerating growth? And how much of that is going to be sort of macro dependent?

因此，如果你從中點的指導退後一步，你的息稅前利潤數字就會下降，比 2023 年的水平低 6%。顯然，我們正在進入一個動蕩的宏觀環境。卡羅爾或布賴恩，你能談談你需要拉動什麼樣的槓桿來獲得重新加速的增長嗎？其中有多少將取決於宏觀經濟？

As we think about the bridge from wherever we end up at '23 to '24, I'm just curious to get your perspective on what are the catalyzing agents that would reverse the trend in overall EBIT growth?

當我們思考從 23 歲到 24 歲的橋樑時，我很想知道您對哪些催化劑可以扭轉整體息稅前利潤增長趨勢的看法？

Well, I think there are a number of catalyzing agents. We need to get through this choppy economic environment for sure. But if you think about where we've had some huge home runs, let's talk about our digital access program. We have seen enormous growth in this. When I started, it was less than $150 million, now over $2.3 billion in 2022, on its way to be $3 billion in 2023. And we're growing outside of the United States.

好吧，我認為有許多催化劑。我們肯定需要度過這個動蕩的經濟環境。但是如果你想一想我們在哪裡取得了巨大的成功，讓我們來談談我們的數字訪問計劃。我們已經看到了這方面的巨大增長。當我開始時，它還不到 1.5 億美元，現在到 2022 年將超過 23 億美元，到 2023 年將達到 30 億美元。而且我們正在美國以外的地區發展。

It has been just a U.S. program. Now we're going outside the United States, and this is one area of investment for next year. So that's a catalyst for growth because we're investing in a customer that's underserved today. Another catalyst for growth is what we're doing on the customer journey. As we continue to move the needle on improving the experience with us, we see every year increasing penetration in our SMBs, Brian. And that's part of the plan for next year.

這只是美國的一個項目。現在我們要走出美國，這是明年的投資領域之一。所以這是增長的催化劑，因為我們正在投資於今天服務不足的客戶。增長的另一個催化劑是我們在客戶旅程中所做的事情。隨著我們繼續努力改善我們的體驗，我們看到每年在我們的 SMB 中的滲透率都在增加，布賴恩。這是明年計劃的一部分。

That's right. So we'll be adding about 100 basis points, Carol, from a volume mix perspective on the SMB front. So that customer experience translating into continued growth on the SMB front. And from a macro perspective, obviously, built into the guide is an improvement in the back half of the year. So we need to see a bit of a pickup in Asia and the U.S. rebounding somewhat from a backdrop perspective.

這是正確的。因此，從 SMB 方面的數量組合角度來看，卡羅爾，我們將增加大約 100 個基點。因此，客戶體驗會轉化為 SMB 方面的持續增長。從宏觀角度來看，顯然，指南中內置了下半年的改進。因此，我們需要看到亞洲和美國有所回升，從背景的角度來看有所反彈。

Another catalyst for growth, of course, is Healthcare logistics. Couldn't be more proud of the progress that we've made in this space, and we're just getting started. There's a huge opportunity for growth here around the world, and Kate and her team are doing a masterful job of leading us there.

當然，另一個增長催化劑是醫療保健物流。為我們在這個領域取得的進步感到無比自豪，我們才剛剛開始。世界各地都有巨大的發展機會，凱特和她的團隊在帶領我們實現這一目標方面做得非常出色。

And as you think about the OpEx that you're putting in to offset some of the above-the-line sort of service cost, is that sort of onetime in nature? Is that just project-based work around implementing our FAD in the facilities? Is there some cost drag there that comes away? Or is that just cost drag that moves on to the next initiative? I'm just trying to think from a puts and takes perspective.

當您考慮為抵消某些線上服務成本而投入的運營支出時，這種性質是一次性的嗎？這只是圍繞在設施中實施我們的 FAD 而進行的基於項目的工作嗎？那裡有一些成本拖累嗎？還是只是成本拖累了下一個計劃？我只是想從看跌期權的角度思考問題。

Now some of the investments, international debt, for example, we're investing in the first part of the year. That will start to pay back the latter part of the year. And then the deployment of Smart Package, Smart Facility, that's probably more of a payback in '24 than '23 as we phase -- complete Phase 1 and start to move on to Phase 2.

現在一些投資，例如國際債務，我們在今年上半年進行投資。這將在今年下半年開始收回成本。然後是智能包、智能設施的部署，在我們分階段完成第 1 階段並開始進入第 2 階段時，這可能比 23 年的 24 年回報更多。

To dimensionalize the investment that we're making in Smart Package, Smart Facility, it's about $140 million of expense this year, which will not repeat the following year and about $106 million of capital.

為了量化我們在智能包裝、智能設施方面的投資，今年的支出約為 1.4 億美元，明年不會重複，資本約為 1.06 億美元。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Carol, great to hear the target to have the contract done by the end of July. I think last year we talked to you, you weren't even planning on sitting down early. So I think that's encouraging to hear. Maybe you could talk a little bit about what the largest customer kind of represented full year for '22, your thoughts? I know you talked about the pace of the loss of that business, but it sounds like it's accelerating into '23. Maybe you could talk a little bit about that in perspective of your countering SMB wins. And then on International to maintain that 21%, Brian, what's the assumptions in there to maintain that level?

卡羅爾，很高興聽到目標是在 7 月底之前完成合同。我想去年我們和你談過，你甚至不打算早點坐下來。所以我認為這是令人鼓舞的消息。也許你可以談談最大的客戶代表 22 年的全年，你的想法是什麼？我知道您談到了該業務損失的速度，但聽起來它正在加速進入 23 年。也許您可以從反擊 SMB 勝利的角度談談這一點。然後在國際上保持 21%，布賴恩，保持該水平的假設是什麼？

Sure. On the Amazon front, Ken, we finished up a year ago at 11.7% in terms of the percentage of Amazon as a percentage of our business, that came down to 11.3% in last year. So it was really a decline of about 40 basis points. We'll continue on a mutually agreed path to glide that business down in 2023, and that's factored into our guide. So we feel good about being able to manage that down.

當然。在亞馬遜方面，Ken，就亞馬遜占我們業務的百分比而言，我們一年前完成了 11.7%，去年下降到 11.3%。所以它真的下降了大約 40 個基點。我們將繼續沿著共同商定的道路在 2023 年將該業務下滑，這已納入我們的指南。因此，我們對能夠將其管理下來感覺很好。

On the International front, Ken, it was the second part of your question. So we've got an assumption that Asia comes back in the second half of the year. So that's -- they're going through some challenges right now in the early part of the year. There was a 2-week lunar holiday. We had some COVID challenges, particularly out of China. So Kate and the team, they've done a masterful job in the fourth quarter and also in the beginning of this year in terms of pivoting our air network.

在國際方面，Ken，這是你問題的第二部分。所以我們假設亞洲會在今年下半年回歸。這就是 - 他們在今年年初正在經歷一些挑戰。有一個為期兩週的陰曆假期。我們遇到了一些 COVID 挑戰，尤其是在中國之外。所以凱特和團隊，他們在第四季度和今年年初在調整我們的空中網絡方面做得非常出色。

I think Kate took down about 200 flights in Asia, which was really remarkable that they were able to do that in such a short period of time. So managing the air network, seeing a little bit of a rebound in China and then getting after the opportunities that we're investing in, International DAP was one I just mentioned and then going after the premium side of the market. So lots of encouraging optimism for the back half of the year.

我認為凱特在亞洲起飛了大約 200 次航班，他們能夠在如此短的時間內做到這一點，這真的很了不起。因此，管理空中網絡，看到中國的一點點反彈，然後抓住我們投資的機會，國際 DAP 就是我剛才提到的，然後追求市場的高端。今年下半年有很多令人鼓舞的樂觀情緒。

And agility really is the name of the game, isn't it? Here it is. It's the end of January. I would say, our crystal ball is pretty murky, but I can tell you what we're seeing in the business today. The U.S. is actually doing a bit better than the base case. And International is doing a bit worse because we're in now a 2-week Lunar New Year holidays, who would have thought. But with herd immunity coming, we believe in China, things should get better outside the United States.

敏捷真的是遊戲的名稱，不是嗎？這裡是。現在是一月底。我會說，我們的水晶球很模糊，但我可以告訴你我們今天在業務中看到的情況。美國實際上比基本情況做得更好。國際的情況更糟，因為我們現在正處於為期 2 週的農曆新年假期，誰會想到。但隨著群體免疫的到來，我們相信中國，美國以外的情況應該會好起來。

And just to clarify, that 11.3%. I think, Carol, you had mentioned that you were targeting maybe less than 11% on Amazon for '22. So it sounds like maybe it's not drifting away as fast as an accelerating decline?

澄清一下，那 11.3%。我想，Carol，你曾提到你在 22 年在亞馬遜上的目標可能低於 11%。所以聽起來它可能不會像加速下降那樣迅速消失？

No, Ken, really it's a function of currency. FX impacted our top line by $1.3 billion. So having not had the pressure on the top line, the percentage would have been different. Does that make sense?

不，肯，這真的是貨幣的功能。外匯影響了我們的收入 13 億美元。因此，如果沒有頂線的壓力，百分比會有所不同。那有意義嗎？

Yes. Absolutely. Of course.

是的。絕對地。當然。

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So I just want to make sure I'm understanding the guidance piece this year. So I think you said in the base case, Brian, the U.S. margin is 12%. And can you talk about where you see it in the downside scenario? And then you talked about more than half of the operating profit in the second half of the year. I mean, it's typically somewhere between 50% and 55%. Should we think anything differently? I don't know if you want to give us a little bit more color on first half or second half profit margins and any color there?

所以我只想確保我理解今年的指南。所以我想你在基本情況下說過，布賴恩，美國利潤率是 12%。你能談談你在不利情況下看到它的地方嗎？然後你談到了下半年營業利潤的一半以上。我的意思是，它通常介於 50% 和 55% 之間。我們應該有什麼不同的想法嗎？我不知道你是否想給我們更多關於上半年或下半年利潤率的顏色以及那裡的任何顏色？

Yes Scott, good to hear from you. So I'll start with the latter question first. We expect about 56% of our profit to come in the second half of the year relative to 1H. And then I would also just give you a little bit of color. There will be a similar bathtub effect in the first half between 1Q and 2Q stepping up in 2Q. From a Domestic guide perspective, the other half of your question, Nando and the team are focused on 12%.

是的，斯科特，很高興收到你的來信。所以我先從後一個問題開始。相對於上半年，我們預計下半年約有 56% 的利潤會出現。然後我也會給你一點顏色。上半年在 1Q 和 2Q 之間會出現類似的浴缸效應，在 2Q 加緊。從國內指南的角度來看，你的另一半問題，Nando 和團隊專注於 12%。

That was actually the same number that we had guided to back in our Investor Day, and I'd say, the world has changed a little bit since then, but we're getting after the 12% margin in 2023. The low end is based on 11%. And so there are a number of things that are factored in there. The biggest change would be a change in the top line relative to volume. If the macro doesn't come back as quickly as we think it might, there's labor negotiations going on. So we thought it was prudent to put a floor in.

這實際上與我們在投資者日指導的數字相同，我想說，從那時起世界發生了一些變化，但我們正在追求 2023 年 12% 的利潤率。低端是基於 11%。因此，有許多因素被考慮在內。最大的變化是頂線相對於數量的變化。如果宏觀經濟沒有像我們想像的那樣迅速回歸，勞資談判正在進行中。所以我們認為放地板是明智的。

Our next question comes from the line of Todd Fowler of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Todd Fowler。

Great. I wanted to ask on the expectations for revenue per piece in U.S. Domestic. If I kind of -- Brian, you teased out kind of the comments, you've got revenue in the base case up low single digits, volume down slightly. So revenue per piece maybe low to mid-single digits, a bit of a deceleration from where you've been over the last 2 years. You've obviously done a good job of moving that up. But can you talk about the ability to see continued improvement in revenue per piece as you move through '23, how much of that's base pricing and mix and then the opportunity longer term?

偉大的。我想問一下對美國國內每件收入的預期。如果我有點——布賴恩，你嘲笑了一些評論，你在基本情況下的收入增長了低個位數，銷量略有下降。因此，每件收入可能低至中等個位數，與過去 2 年的收入相比有所下降。你顯然在提升它方面做得很好。但是你能談談在 23 年期間看到每件收入持續改善的能力嗎，其中有多少是基本定價和組合，然後是長期機會？

Yes, it's a great question. So the GRI, as you know, was 6.9%. And with the service rates, we'll keep a decent amount of that. The guide for RPP that we're building in our base case is mid-single digit for RPP, and that is facing 2 headwinds off of that number. You've got product mix and fuel, which each combined about 150 to 200 basis points off of that mid-single digit. So that's how we're thinking about it. And the product mix is really less air, more SurePost, so a shift in the product mix. And then the fuel component, fuel is not going to have a big net impact to the business in 2023. But obviously, there's a cost component versus a revenue component.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。如您所知，GRI 為 6.9%。根據服務費率，我們將保留相當數量的服務。我們在基本案例中構建的 RPP 指南是 RPP 的中個位數，並且面臨著該數字的 2 個逆風。你有產品組合和燃料，每一個都比中間個位數低 150 到 200 個基點。這就是我們考慮的方式。而且產品組合真的更少了，更多的是 SurePost，所以產品組合發生了轉變。然後是燃料部分，燃料不會在 2023 年對業務產生重大淨影響。但顯然，成本部分與收入部分相對。

Our next question comes from the line of Allison Poliniak of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Allison Poliniak。

I just want to turn to Healthcare. You're quickly approaching sort of that original target of $10 billion in revenue there. Obviously, investing some more this year in that vertical. Is there a way to think of what kind of outgrowth you're seeing there? Sort of what's the base market case growth for healthcare this year versus what you guys are seeing or growing above? Just any color there.

我只想轉向醫療保健。你很快就接近了那裡 100 億美元收入的最初目標。顯然，今年在該垂直領域投資更多。有沒有一種方法可以考慮您在那裡看到的是什麼樣的產物？今年醫療保健的基本市場案例增長與你們看到或增長的情況相比是多少？那裡有任何顏色。

Well, I think Kate is here. And Kate, it would be great if you could just take that question, please.

嗯，我想凱特在這裡。凱特，如果你能回答這個問題就好了。

Yes, absolutely. Thank you, Allison. So we've really been able to grow healthcare beyond even lapping in the vaccine distribution that we did over $1 billion. And that was because with that service that we're delivering and the capability around the globe, we're actually selling more into biologics and some of the developing treatments. So that continues to fuel us for the future growth. We've seen double-digit growth and we're planning for double-digit growth this year as well with very strong margins.

是的，一點沒錯。謝謝你，艾莉森。因此，我們真的能夠發展醫療保健，甚至超越了我們所做的超過 10 億美元的疫苗分發。那是因為通過我們提供的服務和全球能力，我們實際上正在銷售更多的生物製劑和一些正在開發的治療方法。因此，這將繼續為我們未來的增長提供動力。我們已經看到了兩位數的增長，我們計劃今年實現兩位數的增長以及非常強勁的利潤率。

Our next question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

Knowing that the SMB penetration continues to be an important part of the strategy, just sort of curious in an environment that's tougher, does it get more difficult to penetrate them? And do you find that maybe when you do, they're sort of trading down in services? Just sort of curious, especially given your large customer will continue to sort of shrink over the coming years.

知道 SMB 滲透仍然是戰略的重要組成部分，只是有點好奇在更艱難的環境中，滲透它們會變得更難嗎？你是否發現，也許當你這樣做時，他們在服務方面有所下降？有點好奇，尤其是考慮到你的大客戶在未來幾年將繼續萎縮。

Well, we've been investing in the experience because we think that's the way to not only grow, but to keep that very important customer. And I couldn't be more proud of what we -- the team has delivered in this regard. So if you think about customer journeys, if you will, there are 3 really big pain points. One was negotiate value. And that's why we're so thrilled with deal manager because deal manager is a huge home run.

好吧，我們一直在投資體驗，因為我們認為這不僅是成長的方式，也是留住那個非常重要的客戶的方式。我為我們團隊在這方面所取得的成就感到無比自豪。所以如果你考慮客戶旅程，如果你願意的話，有 3 個非常大的痛點。一是談判價值。這就是為什麼我們對交易經理如此興奮，因為交易經理是一個巨大的本壘打。

We -- our win rate is 22% higher than we thought it would be with better revenue quality and the customers are happy because they're getting a deal with us within 7 days. It used to take weeks. So negotiated value is an important part of continuing to serve this customer. Another is reroute a package. We had some issues systemically that needed to be addressed, and we fixed that. So now we can reroute a package.

我們 - 我們的中標率比我們預期的高 22%，收入質量更好，客戶很高興，因為他們在 7 天內與我們達成交易。過去需要數週時間。因此，協商價值是繼續為該客戶服務的重要組成部分。另一個是重新路由包裹。我們有一些系統性的問題需要解決，我們解決了這些問題。所以現在我們可以重新路由包裹。

And then finally, resolving a claim. Here, we had a broken link. So when you had a claim, it was not a good experience for our customers. And we've seen our Net Promoter Score in this area alone improve dramatically. And the speed to pay, if a claim needs to pay, has improved by 10 days. So we continue to lean into the experience. And Brian, I know you want to add something here.

最後，解決索賠。在這裡，我們有一個斷開的鏈接。因此，當您提出索賠時，這對我們的客戶來說並不是一個好的體驗。我們已經看到我們在這一領域的淨推薦值有了顯著提高。如果索賠需要支付，支付速度提高了 10 天。因此，我們繼續深入體驗。 Brian，我知道你想在這裡添加一些內容。

Thanks, Carol. Yes, I would just follow up and say, we're putting some OpEx investments, $400 million, into the business this year. We invested in a similar capacity in fastest ground ever and SMBs, et cetera, a couple of years ago. And as I think about the SMB journey by investing in those customer experience points Carol was talking about, those investments are paying off. That's what gives us confidence.

謝謝，卡羅爾。是的，我只想跟進說，我們今年將向該業務投入 4 億美元的運營支出投資。幾年前，我們在有史以來最快的地面和中小企業等方面投資了類似的能力。當我通過投資卡羅爾所說的那些客戶體驗點來思考 SMB 之旅時，這些投資正在獲得回報。這就是給我們信心的原因。

We are seeing 40% higher SMBs today than in 2019 when we started that journey in that investment. And we're actually -- we've increased penetration, Carol, for the last 10 consecutive quarters. So it's a bit of a proof point on the SMB front in terms of the investment and the payoff.

與 2019 年我們開始該投資之旅時相比，我們今天看到的 SMB 數量增加了 40%。事實上，我們已經連續 10 個季度提高了滲透率，Carol。因此，就投資和回報而言，這是 SMB 方面的一個證明點。

Our next question will come from the line of Chris Wetherbee of Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

I guess maybe I had a question on volume. I wanted to understand a little bit better sort of the growth outlook for some of the SMBs, the non sort of Amazon business because it sounds like that's going to be up. So kind of curious about sort of what gives you confidence there, how much market share you've been able to win sort of us around that?

我想也許我對音量有疑問。我想更好地了解一些 SMB 的增長前景，而不是亞馬遜業務，因為這聽起來像是會上升。所以有點好奇是什麼讓你在那裡充滿信心，你已經能夠贏得多少市場份額？

And then Brian, a quick point of clarification as well. I think you talked about sort of the first half, second half dynamic of profit being leading to the back half. And then again, in 1Q and 2Q, should we be using sort of similar numbers like 44, 56 somewhere in that ballpark is a reasonable way to think about that first half as well?

然後是布賴恩，也有一個快速的澄清點。我想你談到了上半年，下半年的利潤動態導致後半部分。然後，在 1Q 和 2Q 中，我們是否應該在那個球場的某個地方使用類似的數字，如 44、56 也是考慮上半場的合理方式？

Maybe on the SMB question, let's look at our Digital Access Program. It's been a huge home run for us. Year-over-year, we saw $1 billion of growth in this program. Here's the important part. It's 3.5 million customers. It's -- these are very small customers who are shipping with us through the platform, and we see continued growth opportunities ahead for us. In fact, we think our DAP program will be over $3 billion in 2023.

也許關於 SMB 問題，讓我們看看我們的數字訪問計劃。這對我們來說是一個巨大的本壘打。與去年同期相比，我們看到該計劃增長了 10 億美元。這是重要的部分。它有 350 萬客戶。這是 - 這些是通過該平台與我們一起運輸的非常小的客戶，我們看到了我們未來的持續增長機會。事實上，我們認為我們的 DAP 計劃到 2023 年將超過 30 億美元。

On the seasonality, yes, so you should consider a similar step-up in mix from a Q1 to Q2 perspective. From a Q1 perspective, Chris, we've got some Q4 trends coming out from a consumer and a macro perspective that are challenged. We're seeing that product mix headwinds, and we're making some of these investments in the early part of the year. So you should apply that same bathtub effect for Q1, Q2.

在季節性方面，是的，所以你應該考慮從第一季度到第二季度的角度進行類似的升級。從第一季度的角度來看，克里斯，我們從消費者和宏觀角度來看一些第四季度的趨勢受到挑戰。我們看到了產品組合的不利因素，我們在今年年初進行了其中一些投資。因此，您應該對 Q1、Q2 應用相同的浴缸效應。

And then Stephen, we have time for one more.

然後是斯蒂芬，我們還有時間再講一個。

Our last question will come from the line of Brian Ossenbeck of JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Just want to come back to pensions real quick. Brian, can you talk about maybe any changes to the sensitivity? It's a little bit different than what we thought, maybe not as big of an impact. Did you change expected returns assumption or anything along those lines? And then maybe if you can just wrap up with a bit of commentary on pricing and yield and productivity and how all those really relate and it can trend throughout the year in an environment where you're seeing volume decelerate?

只想真正快速地回到養老金。布賴恩，你能談談靈敏度的任何變化嗎？這和我們想像的有點不同，也許影響沒有那麼大。您是否更改了預期回報假設或類似的任何內容？然後，也許您可以就價格、產量和生產率以及所有這些真正相關的評論進行總結，並且在您看到銷量下降的環境中，它可能全年呈趨勢？

You talked about all the different sort of headwinds or uncertainties, some of which showed up in peak. So really just looking to see if you're seeing some demand destruction out there and if you're able to drive these productivity gains, if the volumes don't necessarily show up where you think they could and surprise a bit to the downside?

你談到了所有不同類型的逆風或不確定性，其中一些出現在高峰期。所以真的只是想看看你是否看到一些需求破壞，如果你能夠推動這些生產力的提高，如果數量不一定出現在你認為他們可以出現的地方並且有點令人驚訝的下行？

Happy to, Brian. So on the pension front, look, we've been on a path to derisk the pension. And we actually feel good about the glide path there. We're up in the high 90s, about 98% funded level, which is great for our employees. From a liability perspective, we've taken that down from about $16 billion a couple of years ago to $4 billion, $4.8 billion now. So overall, the glide path has been good.

很高興，布賴恩。所以在養老金方面，看，我們一直在降低養老金的風險。我們實際上對那裡的下滑路徑感覺良好。我們處於 90 年代的高位，大約 98% 的資金水平，這對我們的員工來說非常好。從負債的角度來看，我們已經將其從幾年前的大約 160 億美元減少到現在的 40 億美元、48 億美元。所以總的來說，下滑路徑一直很好。

The challenge we have is that we've seen historic rise in interest rates. And so that $900-plus million number that I gave you below the line, that is a noncash number, but it moves up and down with the market. So we try to give you the transparency. We do tend to look through that as it's a noncash number when we think about our capital allocation vis-à-vis the dividend, et cetera. So net-net, I think we're doing the right thing for the company. Given the volatility in the interest rates, it is a challenging environment and will move up and down on a relative basis.

我們面臨的挑戰是我們已經看到利率出現歷史性上升。因此，我在線下給出的 900 多萬美元的數字是非現金數字，但它會隨著市場上下波動。因此，我們嘗試為您提供透明度。當我們考慮相對於股息等的資本分配時，我們確實傾向於仔細研究它，因為它是一個非現金數字。所以 net-net，我認為我們正在為公司做正確的事情。鑑於利率的波動性，這是一個充滿挑戰的環境，並且會在相對基礎上上下波動。

The way I think about productivity, it's a virtuous cycle here at UPS, and I couldn't be more proud of what our team has done quarter after quarter after quarter to drive productivity. And Nando, maybe you could share a few of the action items in 2023 to continue that flywheel.

我對生產力的看法，在 UPS 是一個良性循環，我為我們的團隊每個季度都為提高生產力所做的工作感到無比自豪。 Nando，也許你可以在 2023 年分享一些行動項目來繼續這個飛輪。

Sure. Just if you look at the shape of the volume, especially in the fourth quarter and quarters before that, we've shown tremendous agility making sure we're matching the hours and the activity in our operations to the actual volume and the revenue. That will continue. And quite frankly, our people are masters of efficiency.

當然。只要看看交易量的形狀，尤其是在第四季度和之前的幾個季度，我們就會表現出極大的敏捷性，確保我們將運營中的時間和活動與實際交易量和收入相匹配。那將繼續。坦率地說，我們的員工是效率大師。

So as we roll out the second iteration of our total service plan, which kicks off on March 3, we're learning a lot about our network. And there's cost to be had in not just on-road activity or inside our facilities, but across the entire network. And we're laser-focused on those initiatives. And whatever volume and how it comes into us in different shapes and sizes, we'll make sure that we're prepared to handle it effectively. And hopefully, we're building up a little bit of a track record to show that, that's exactly what we have been doing. So I appreciate it.

因此，當我們推出將於 3 月 3 日啟動的整體服務計劃的第二次迭代時，我們正在學習很多關於我們網絡的知識。不僅在路上活動或在我們的設施內，而且在整個網絡中都需要成本。我們非常專注於這些舉措。無論體積如何，它如何以不同的形狀和大小進入我們，我們都會確保我們準備好有效地處理它。希望我們正在建立一些記錄來表明，這正是我們一直在做的事情。所以我很感激。

Excellent. I want to thank everybody for joining the call this morning. We look forward to talking to you next quarter, and that concludes our call.

出色的。我要感謝大家今天早上加入電話會議。我們期待在下個季度與您交談，我們的通話到此結束。