聯合包裹運送服務公司 (UPS) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Steven, and I will be your facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the UPS Investor Relations Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好。我的名字是史蒂文，今天我將成為您的主持人。我想歡迎大家參加 UPS 投資者關係 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. Ken Cook, Investor Relations Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給您的主持人，投資者關係官 Ken Cook 先生。先生，地板是你的。

Good morning, and welcome to the UPS Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Carol Tomé, our CEO; and Brian Newman, our CFO.

早上好，歡迎參加 UPS 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的首席執行官 Carol Tomé；和我們的首席財務官 Brian Newman。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that some of the comments we'll make today are forward-looking statements within the federal securities laws and address our expectations for the future performance or operating results of our company. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are described in our 2021 Form 10-K, our first quarter 2022 Form 10-Q and other reports we file with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports, when filed, are available on the UPS Investor Relations website and from the SEC. Unless stated otherwise, our discussion refers to adjusted results.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們今天將發表的一些評論是聯邦證券法中的前瞻性陳述，並解決了我們對公司未來業績或經營業績的預期。這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，我們在 2021 年表格 10-K、我們的 2022 年第一季度表格 10-Q 以及我們向證券交易委員會提交或提供的其他報告中對此進行了描述。這些報告在提交後可在 UPS 投資者關係網站和美國證券交易委員會獲得。除非另有說明，否則我們的討論是指調整後的結果。

For the second quarter of 2022, GAAP results include after-tax transformation and other charges of $31 million or $0.04 per diluted share. A reconciliation to GAAP financial results is available on the UPS Investor Relations website along with the webcast of today's call.

對於 2022 年第二季度，GAAP 業績包括稅後轉型和其他 3100 萬美元或攤薄後每股 0.04 美元的費用。 UPS 投資者關係網站以及今天電話會議的網絡廣播提供了對 GAAP 財務結果的對賬。

Following our prepared remarks, we will take questions from those joining us via the teleconference. (Operator Instructions)

在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將通過電話會議回答那些加入我們的人的問題。 （操作員說明）

And now I'll turn the call over to Carol.

現在我將把電話轉給卡羅爾。

Thank you, Ken, and good morning. Let me begin by recognizing our more than 500,000 UPSers around the world for their dedication, hard work and efforts. Our founder, Jim Casey, said, "We do what we promise." And in the second quarter, our UPSers did just that. They not only met, they exceeded our promises to our customers, our shareowners and each other.

謝謝你，肯，早上好。讓我首先感謝我們在世界各地超過 500,000 名 UPS 員工的奉獻、辛勤工作和努力。我們的創始人吉姆·凱西說：“我們信守承諾。”在第二季度，我們的 UPS 員工就是這樣做的。他們不僅會面，而且超出了我們對客戶、股東和彼此的承諾。

In the second quarter, the macro environment remained dynamic. We expected volume levels to decline from last year. They did, but more than we planned, given a number of factors that Brian will detail. Despite the decline in volume, we continue to win in the most attractive parts of the market with strong gains and revenue quality. Under our better, not bigger strategy, our actions are creating a more resilient UPS. We are delivering better service for our customers and stronger financial results for our shareowners.

二季度，宏觀環境依然充滿活力。我們預計銷量水平將比去年下降。他們做了，但比我們計劃的要多，考慮到布賴恩將詳細說明的一些因素。儘管銷量下降，但我們繼續以強勁的收益和收入質量贏得市場最具吸引力的部分。在我們更好而不是更大的戰略下，我們的行動正在創造一個更具彈性的 UPS。我們正在為我們的客戶提供更好的服務，並為我們的股東提供更強勁的財務業績。

For the second quarter, consolidated revenue rose 5.7% from last year to $24.8 billion and operating profit grew 9.3% to $3.6 billion. Consolidated operating margin expanded to 14.4%, a 40 basis point improvement from last year, and it was our highest quarterly consolidated operating margin in nearly 15 years. All business segments delivered operating profit growth. And I'd like to give a shout-out to our Supply Chain Solutions businesses, which delivered operating profit of $517 million, a record high performance.

第二季度，綜合收入同比增長 5.7% 至 248 億美元，營業利潤增長 9.3% 至 36 億美元。綜合營業利潤率擴大至 14.4%，比去年提高 40 個基點，這是我們近 15 年來最高的季度綜合營業利潤率。各業務板塊營業利潤均實現增長。我想對我們的供應鏈解決方案業務大加讚賞，該業務實現了 5.17 億美元的營業利潤，創歷史新高。

Moving to our strategic update. Our customer-first, people-led, innovation-driven strategy is powering consistent improvement across our company. Starting with customer-first, which is about creating a frictionless customer experience, we are growing in the parts of the market where we want to grow, like SMBs, healthcare, B2B and certain large enterprise accounts.

轉到我們的戰略更新。我們以客戶為先、以人為本、創新驅動的戰略正在推動我們公司的持續改進。從客戶至上開始，即創造無摩擦的客戶體驗，我們正在我們想要發展的市場部分發展，如中小型企業、醫療保健、B2B 和某些大型企業客戶。

How are we doing that? By providing outstanding service and focusing on the capabilities that matter the most to our customers. Let me share a few new highlights with you.

我們是怎麼做到的？通過提供卓越的服務並專注於對我們的客戶最重要的能力。讓我與您分享一些新的亮點。

Starting with our recent acquisition of Delivery Solutions. This is a carrier-agnostic digital platform that enables companies to easily optimize their deliveries across dozens of physical networks through a single connection. Carriers include Roadie and other same-day services, along with curbside pickup and small package shipping, further adding to UPS' array of digital commerce solutions for our customers.

從我們最近收購的 Delivery Solutions 開始。這是一個與運營商無關的數字平台，使公司能夠通過單一連接輕鬆優化其在數十個物理網絡中的交付。承運商包括 Roadie 和其他當日服務，以及路邊取貨和小包裹運輸，進一步增加了 UPS 為我們的客戶提供的一系列數字商務解決方案。

Next, we are continuing to win with SMBs by making it easier for them to ship with us. Our new digital pricing platform called Deal Manager, that we discussed last quarter simplifies and accelerates the pricing process for larger SMB customers and is performing better than we expected. Our win rate is 12 percentage points higher than we anticipated, which helped drive our U.S. SMB growth rate in the second quarter. Later this year, Deal Manager will be rolled out to our international small package business, starting with Canada and Germany.

接下來，我們將繼續通過讓 SMB 更容易與我們一起發貨來贏得他們的青睞。我們在上個季度討論過的名為 Deal Manager 的新數字定價平台簡化並加快了大型 SMB 客戶的定價流程，並且表現比我們預期的要好。我們的勝率比我們預期的高 12 個百分點，這有助於推動我們第二季度的美國中小企業增長率。今年晚些時候，Deal Manager 將推廣到我們的國際小包裹業務，首先是加拿大和德國。

Additionally, DAP, our digital access program, is continuing to grow in the U.S. and internationally. In the first 6 months of this year, DAP generated more than $1 billion in revenue putting this well on our way to achieving our $2 billion revenue target in 2022.

此外，我們的數字訪問計劃 DAP 在美國和國際上繼續發展。今年前 6 個月，DAP 創造了超過 10 億美元的收入，這使我們在實現 2022 年 20 億美元收入目標的道路上取得了成功。

And looking at SMBs, in the U.S., in the second quarter, we grew SMB average daily volume, including platforms by 3.3%, which was faster than the market. SMBs made up 29.2% of our total U.S. volume in the quarter, an increase of 200 basis points from 1 year ago.

再看看美國的中小企業，在第二季度，我們的中小企業日均交易量（包括平台）增長了 3.3%，快於市場。本季度中小型企業占我們美國總交易量的 29.2%，比一年前增加了 200 個基點。

While our international volume levels were challenged in the second quarter, due to the ongoing war in Eastern Europe and COVID-19 lockdowns in Asia, that didn't stop us from investing in our business. We recently launched a new daily flight from our Cologne air hub that connects key manufacturing cities in Asia. This flight speeds up transit times across multiple intra-Asia tradelanes and provides greater connectivity to the UPS global network, including to the U.S. and Europe.

儘管由於東歐持續的戰爭和亞洲的 COVID-19 封鎖，我們的國際銷量水平在第二季度受到挑戰，但這並沒有阻止我們投資於我們的業務。我們最近從科隆航空樞紐開通了新的每日航班，連接亞洲主要製造城市。該航班加快了多個亞洲內部貿易航線的運輸時間，並為 UPS 全球網絡（包括美國和歐洲）提供了更好的連接。

And speaking of Europe, did you know that UPS has the fastest ground network in Europe? In fact, we are faster by at least 1 day on the ground in over 1/3 of the market, and we will continue to leverage our competitive advantage here to win on speed and service.

說到歐洲，你知道 UPS 擁有歐洲最快的地面網絡嗎？事實上，在超過 1/3 的市場中，我們在地面上至少快了 1 天，我們將繼續利用我們的競爭優勢在速度和服務上取勝。

Our international expansion didn't stop in the air. In the second quarter, we announced a new joint venture in India, which we call MOVIN. MOVIN offers a range of extensive, express and premium service coverage across India with a strong portfolio of B2B domestic services.

我們的國際擴張並沒有停止。第二季度，我們宣佈在印度成立一家新的合資企業，我們稱之為 MOVIN。 MOVIN 通過強大的 B2B 國內服務組合在印度提供一系列廣泛、快速和優質的服務。

Moving to healthcare. We've expanded UPS Premier, our advanced technology solution. UPS Premier gives complex healthcare shipments, a priority lane in our network with enhanced visibility and near-perfect service. So far this year, we've added 14 new countries to UPS Premier, bringing the total availability to 33 countries. And by the end of this year, we will add another 15 countries in Europe, Asia and Latin America. These efforts and more are keeping us on track to hit our $10 billion healthcare revenue target in 2023.

轉向醫療保健。我們擴展了我們的先進技術解決方案 UPS Premier。 UPS Premier 提供複雜的醫療保健貨件，這是我們網絡中的優先通道，具有增強的可見性和近乎完美的服務。今年到目前為止，我們為 UPS Premier 新增了 14 個國家/地區，使總可用性達到 33 個國家/地區。到今年年底，我們將在歐洲、亞洲和拉丁美洲再增加 15 個國家。這些努力以及更多努力使我們能夠在 2023 年實現 100 億美元的醫療保健收入目標。

Moving to people-led. I'm delighted that Bala Subramanian has joined the company as UPS' new Chief Digital and Technology Officer. He is tasked with supercharging digital transformation across every aspect of our business and will unleash even more innovation for our customers.

轉向以人為本。我很高興 Bala Subramanian 加入公司，擔任 UPS 新任首席數字和技術官。他的任務是加強我們業務各個方面的數字化轉型，並將為我們的客戶釋放更多創新。

We are moving from digital literacy to digital fluency. And to help us get there, we are investing in our people and have created training to equip them with new skills. The entire executive leadership team, including me, has completed this digital fluency training. And we are moving quickly to train our next 2 levels of leadership, which brings me to innovation driven.

我們正在從數字素養轉向數字流暢性。為了幫助我們實現這一目標，我們正在投資於我們的員工並開展培訓以使他們具備新技能。包括我在內的整個執行領導團隊都完成了這個數字流利度培訓。我們正在迅速採取行動來培訓我們接下來的兩個級別的領導力，這讓我開始接受創新驅動。

This is about the future of UPS and driving more productivity from the assets we own. The changes we've already made have significantly increased the agility of our network and are driving productivity improvements. In the second quarter in the United States, we were able to manage hours in line with volume levels, and we optimized our trailer loads by eliminating 1,600 loads per day compared to the same time frame last year. And we will continue to deploy additional technology prior to peak.

這關乎 UPS 的未來，並從我們擁有的資產中提高生產力。我們已經做出的改變顯著提高了我們網絡的敏捷性，並推動了生產力的提高。在美國的第二季度，我們能夠根據數量水平管理小時數，並且與去年同期相比，我們通過每天減少 1,600 次負載來優化我們的拖車負載。我們將繼續在高峰之前部署其他技術。

To give you a couple of examples, we are on track with our deployment of Smart Package Smart Facility to the first 100 buildings in our network. And prior to peak this year, we will bring 2 automated facilities online, including the first 2 phases of our new 800,000 square foot regional hub in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

舉幾個例子，我們正在將智能包智能設施部署到我們網絡中的前 100 座建築物。在今年的高峰期之前，我們將上線 2 個自動化設施，包括我們位於賓夕法尼亞州哈里斯堡的 800,000 平方英尺新區域中心的前兩個階段。

Additionally, on July 11, we launched our Total Service Plan across the U.S. network. Brian will share the details, but our Total Service Plan approach creates a more predictable operating environment enabling us to take more cost out and make our industry-leading service even better.

此外，7 月 11 日，我們在美國網絡推出了全面服務計劃。 Brian 將分享詳細信息，但我們的全面服務計劃方法創造了一個更可預測的運營環境，使我們能夠降低成本並使我們行業領先的服務更加出色。

We are also working on another big efficiency opportunity, and that's how to improve delivery density. We are approaching this differently by attacking density upstream in fulfillment. We recently completed 2 pilots, and we're really excited about the results. We are building a new digital platform that can scale, and we look forward to sharing more detail with you in the coming quarters.

我們還在努力尋找另一個提高效率的機會，那就是如何提高交付密度。我們通過在實現中攻擊上游的密度來以不同的方式解決這個問題。我們最近完成了 2 個試點，我們對結果感到非常興奮。我們正在構建一個可擴展的新數字平台，我們期待在未來幾個季度與您分享更多細節。

Innovation-driven will also help us reach carbon neutrality by 2050. On Thursday of this week, we will publish our set of annual sustainability report, which includes our 20th GRI Content Index. In these reports, we share some new technologies that we are using, like the eQuad electric-assist bikes we are piloting in New York and London. These eQuads are a great zero-emission last-mile solution for super-urban environments.

創新驅動也將幫助我們在 2050 年前實現碳中和。本周星期四，我們將發布我們的年度可持續發展報告，其中包括我們的第 20 個 GRI 內容索引。在這些報告中，我們分享了我們正在使用的一些新技術，例如我們在紐約和倫敦試行的 eQuad 電動助力自行車。這些 eQuad 是超級城市環境的絕佳零排放最後一英里解決方案。

Before I turn it over to Brian, let me end by reaffirming our 2022 consolidated financial targets. In 2022, we expect to generate about $102 billion in revenue, consolidated operating margin of approximately 13.7%, and we expect return on invested capital to be greater than 30%.

在我把它交給布賴恩之前，讓我重申我們的 2022 年綜合財務目標。到 2022 年，我們預計將產生約 1020 億美元的收入，合併營業利潤率約為 13.7%，我們預計投資資本回報率將超過 30%。

Lastly, we are again increasing our targeted share repurchases for 2022, taking the target up to $3 billion for the year. In the face of a very dynamic macro environment, we remain agile and on strategy. We have multiple revenue and cost levers to pull, and we remain focused on controlling what we can control.

最後，我們再次增加了 2022 年的目標股票回購，將全年目標提高到 30 億美元。面對一個非常動態的宏觀環境，我們保持敏捷和戰略。我們有多個收入和成本槓桿可以拉動，我們仍然專注於控制我們可以控制的東西。

And now I'll turn the call over to Brian.

現在我將把電話轉給布賴恩。

Thanks, Carol, and good morning. In my comments, I'll cover 4 areas. Starting with the macro environment; then our second quarter results; next, I'll cover cash and shareowner returns; and lastly, I'll wrap up with our financial outlook for the second half of 2022.

謝謝，卡羅爾，早上好。在我的評論中，我將涵蓋 4 個領域。從宏觀環境入手；然後是我們的第二季度業績；接下來，我將介紹現金和股東回報；最後，我將總結我們對 2022 年下半年的財務展望。

In the second quarter, there were many cross-currents that contributed to a dynamic macro environment. In the U.S., even with high inflation and increasing interest rates, the job market and consumer spending remains strong with a growing share of wallet spent on services.

在第二季度，有許多交叉流促成了動態的宏觀環境。在美國，即使通貨膨脹率高、利率上升，就業市場和消費者支出依然強勁，用於服務的錢包份額越來越大。

Internationally, the environment continued to be negatively impacted by COVID-19 lockdowns in Asia and geopolitical issues, both of which drove complexity in the market for customers. Despite these external factors, we remained agile and delivered strong second quarter results as we expected.

在國際上，環境繼續受到亞洲 COVID-19 封鎖和地緣政治問題的負面影響，這兩者都導致了客戶市場的複雜性。儘管存在這些外部因素，我們仍然保持敏捷，並如我們預期的那樣交付了強勁的第二季度業績。

In the second quarter, consolidated revenue increased 5.7% to $24.8 billion. Consolidated operating profit totaled $3.6 billion, 9.3% higher than last year. Consolidated operating margin expanded to 14.4%, which was 40 basis points above last year and was our highest consolidated operating margin in nearly 15 years. For the second quarter, diluted earnings per share was $3.29, up 7.5% from the same period last year.

第二季度，綜合收入增長 5.7% 至 248 億美元。合併營業利潤總額為 36 億美元，比去年增長 9.3%。綜合營業利潤率擴大至 14.4%，比去年高 40 個基點，是我們近 15 年來最高的綜合營業利潤率。第二季度，每股攤薄收益為 3.29 美元，比去年同期增長 7.5%。

Now let's look at our business segments. In U.S. Domestic, revenue quality initiatives more than offset the volume decline and drove strong second quarter results. Average daily volume in the U.S. was down 4% or 823,000 packages per day versus the second quarter of last year. More than half of the decrease was due to actions we took with a few of our largest customers, to optimize air and ground volume we bring into our network. And the majority of the volume reduction from these customers was residential. We expected to fill this gap with other enterprise volume, but macro conditions made that challenging.

現在讓我們看看我們的業務部門。在美國國內，收入質量計劃抵消了銷量下降，並推動了強勁的第二季度業績。與去年第二季度相比，美國的日均包裹量下降了 4%，即每天 823,000 個包裹。減少的一半以上是由於我們與一些最大的客戶採取的行動，以優化我們帶入網絡的空氣和地面量。這些客戶減少的大部分數量是住宅。我們希望用其他企業數量來填補這一空白，但宏觀條件使這具有挑戰性。

In the second quarter, residential volume declined 8.2% and was partially offset by a 2.3% increase in B2B average daily volume. B2B represented 43% of our volume, which was up from 40% in the second quarter of 2021. We are continuing to win in the most attractive parts of the market due to our industry-leading service and enabling capabilities.

第二季度，住宅交易量下降 8.2%，被 B2B 日均交易量增長 2.3% 部分抵消。 B2B 占我們交易量的 43%，高於 2021 年第二季度的 40%。由於我們行業領先的服務和支持能力，我們將繼續在最具吸引力的市場領域獲勝。

In the second quarter, SMB average daily volume, including platforms, grew 3.3% year-over-year. And SMBs made up 29.2% of our U.S. domestic volume, an increase of 200 basis points over last year, putting us well on our way to achieving our 2023 target of 30%. For the quarter, U.S. Domestic generated revenue of $15.5 billion, up 7.3%.

第二季度，包括平台在內的中小企業日均交易量同比增長 3.3%。中小型企業占我們美國國內業務量的 29.2%，比去年增加了 200 個基點，使我們在實現 2023 年 30% 的目標方面取得了良好的進展。本季度，美國國內收入為 155 億美元，增長 7.3%。

Revenue per piece increased 11.9%, with double-digit increases across all products. Changes to price per gallon for fuel drove 400 basis points of the revenue per piece growth rate increase, and the remaining 790 basis points of revenue per piece improvement came from the actions we took, which included base rates, fuel pricing and mix improvements.

每件收入增長 11.9%，所有產品均實現兩位數增長。每加侖燃料價格的變化推動了 400 個基點的單件收入增長率增長，其餘 790 個基點的單件收入增長來自我們採取的行動，包括基本費率、燃料定價和混合改進。

Turning to costs. Total expense grew 6.9%, primarily driven by 2 factors: first, fuel drove 370 basis points of the expense growth rate increase due primarily to the rise in price per gallon compared to last year; and second, wages and benefits contributed about 200 basis points of the increase due to the rise in health, welfare and pension rates. The remaining variance was driven by multiple factors, including maintenance and depreciation.

轉向成本。總費用增長 6.9%，主要受兩個因素驅動：首先，燃料推動費用增長率增長 370 個基點，主要是由於每加侖價格比去年上漲；其次，由於健康、福利和養老金率的上升，工資和福利貢獻了大約 200 個基點的增長。剩餘的差異是由多種因素驅動的，包括維護和折舊。

Had we managed our second quarter cost for the short term, they could have been better. But we made the decision to manage for the longer term. So we pulled on most cost levers, but not all of them. Knowing that we would need to hire for peak soon, we did not want to make a short-term decision that would negatively impact service later in the year.

如果我們在短期內管理了第二季度的成本，它們可能會更好。但我們決定進行長期管理。所以我們使用了大多數成本槓桿，但不是全部。知道我們很快就需要在高峰期招聘，我們不想做出一個會對今年晚些時候的服務產生負面影響的短期決定。

Our industry-leading service is driving revenue quality and is bringing new customers in the door. Helping to offset cost increases, we are continuing to see the benefits of our cube utilization and other productivity efforts. Our latest initiative is called Total Service Plan, which we launched earlier this month across the U.S. network. This is about running an on-time precision network every day.

我們行業領先的服務正在提高收入質量，並帶來新客戶。幫助抵消成本增加，我們繼續看到我們的立方體利用率和其他生產力努力的好處。我們的最新舉措稱為全面服務計劃，我們於本月初在美國網絡上推出了該計劃。這是關於每天運行一個準時的精確網絡。

Specifically, we've optimized our operating plans to minimize driver wait times and execute an on-time dispatch across our network. We are happy with the early results, including a marked improvement in on-time feeder departures, which reduces idle time across the network. Total Service Plan is a key initiative that will drive lower cost and provide greater predictability for our customers and our operators.

具體來說，我們優化了我們的運營計劃，以最大限度地減少司機等待時間並在我們的網絡中執行準時調度。我們對早期結果感到滿意，包括準時支線離開的顯著改善，這減少了整個網絡的空閒時間。全面服務計劃是一項關鍵舉措，它將降低成本並為我們的客戶和運營商提供更大的可預測性。

To wrap up U.S. Domestic, the segment delivered $1.9 billion in operating profit, an increase of $180 million or 10.7% compared to the second quarter of 2021. And operating margin expanded 40 basis points to 12%.

總結美國國內業務，該部門實現了 19 億美元的營業利潤，與 2021 年第二季度相比增加了 1.8 億美元或 10.7%。營業利潤率擴大了 40 個基點至 12%。

Moving to our International segment. A softer macro environment, the war in Eastern Europe and lockdowns in China pressured volumes, but our team stayed agile in the air and on the ground as we adjusted the network to match our volume levels.

轉到我們的國際部分。較為疲軟的宏觀環境、東歐戰爭和中國的封鎖給交易量帶來壓力，但我們的團隊在空中和地面上保持敏捷，因為我們調整了網絡以匹配我們的交易量水平。

Total average daily volume was down 9.2% in the second quarter, reflecting more normal shopping behaviors in parts of the world like Canada and Germany. In the second quarter of this year, international domestic average daily volume was down 13.4%, which represented more than 3/4 of the total decrease in international volume.

第二季度日均總成交量下降 9.2%，反映出加拿大和德國等世界部分地區的購物行為更為正常。今年二季度，國際國內日均成交量下降13.4%，佔國際總降幅的3/4以上。

Total export average daily volume declined 4.4% due to a combination of factors, including high global inflation and COVID-19 lockdowns in Asia, which disrupted manufacturing output. As we did last quarter, we adjusted the network and we're able to keep our operations moving in Asia to serve our customers.

受全球高通脹和亞洲 COVID-19 封鎖等多種因素的綜合影響，日均出口總量下降了 4.4%，這擾亂了製造業產出。正如我們上個季度所做的那樣，我們調整了網絡，我們能夠繼續在亞洲開展業務以服務我們的客戶。

In the second quarter, international revenue increased 5.3% to $5.1 billion. Revenue per piece increased 14.8%, including a 610 basis point decline due to currency, which was more than offset by a 1,300 basis point benefit from fuel. The remaining revenue per piece growth rate increased 790 basis points was from base pricing, product mix and revenue quality actions that we took. Operating profit grew to $1.2 billion, including a $60 million negative impact from currency. Operating margin in the second quarter was 23.7%.

第二季度，國際收入增長 5.3% 至 51 億美元。每件收入增長了 14.8%，其中包括由於貨幣導致的 610 個基點的下降，這被燃料帶來的 1,300 個基點的收益所抵消。剩餘的每件收入增長率增加了 790 個基點，這來自我們採取的基本定價、產品組合和收入質量措施。營業利潤增長至 12 億美元，其中包括來自貨幣的 6000 萬美元負面影響。第二季度的營業利潤率為23.7%。

Now looking at Supply Chain Solutions. Our team did a great job leaning into the dynamic macro conditions and responding to the needs of our customers. In the second quarter, revenue was $4.2 billion, up 0.7% despite the divestiture of UPS Freight, which accounted for $297 million of Supply Chain Solutions revenue in the second quarter of 2021.

現在關注供應鏈解決方案。我們的團隊在了解動態宏觀條件和響應客戶需求方面做得很好。儘管剝離了 UPS Freight（佔 2021 年第二季度供應鏈解決方案收入的 2.97 億美元），但第二季度的收入為 42 億美元，增長了 0.7%。

Looking at the key performance drivers. In Forwarding, our Ocean Freight product had strong revenue growth due to higher rates, and both Air and Ocean Freight forwarding generated strong operating profit growth by managing the buy sell spreads.

查看關鍵性能驅動因素。在貨運方面，由於費率較高，我們的海運產品收入增長強勁，而空運和海運貨運代理通過管理買賣價差實現了強勁的營業利潤增長。

Within Forwarding, our truckload brokerage unit delivered excellent operating profit growth driven by revenue quality initiatives and customer mix. And our Healthcare business again delivered record top and bottom line results driven by complex customers in cold chain, clinical trials and labs.

在 Forwarding 中，我們的整車經紀部門在收入質量計劃和客戶組合的推動下實現了出色的營業利潤增長。在冷鏈、臨床試驗和實驗室的複雜客戶的推動下，我們的醫療保健業務再次創造了創紀錄的頂線和底線結果。

In the second quarter, Supply Chain Solutions generated record operating profit of $517 million and delivered a record operating margin of 12.2%, an increase of 250 basis points from last year.

第二季度，Supply Chain Solutions 創造了創紀錄的 5.17 億美元營業利潤，營業利潤率達到創紀錄的 12.2%，比去年增加了 250 個基點。

Walking through the rest of the income statement, we had $171 million of interest expense. Other pension income was $298 million, and our effective tax rate for the second quarter was 23%.

瀏覽損益表的其餘部分，我們有 1.71 億美元的利息支出。其他養老金收入為 2.98 億美元，我們第二季度的有效稅率為 23%。

Now let's turn to cash and shareowner returns. Year-to-date, we've generated $8.3 billion in cash from operations and free cash flow was $6.9 billion. And in the first half of 2022, UPS paid $2.6 billion in dividends and completed $1.2 billion in share buybacks, which brings us to our outlook for the second half of 2022.

現在讓我們轉向現金和股東回報。年初至今，我們從運營中產生了 83 億美元的現金，自由現金流為 69 億美元。而在 2022 年上半年，UPS 支付了 26 億美元的股息並完成了 12 億美元的股票回購，這讓我們對 2022 年下半年的展望有了進一步的了解。

According to IHS, GDP expectations for the full year have again been lowered from previous forecasts. Global GDP is now expected to grow 2.9% and U.S. GDP is expected to grow 1.4%. We are continuing to pay close attention to macro elements, including COVID-19, inflationary pressures, the health of the consumer and the geopolitical environment.

據 IHS 稱，全年 GDP 預期再次低於之前的預測。全球 GDP 現在預計增長 2.9%，美國 GDP 預計增長 1.4%。我們將繼續密切關注宏觀因素，包括 COVID-19、通脹壓力、消費者健康和地緣政治環境。

The execution of our strategy under our better, not bigger framework is enabling greater agility and resiliency against an uncertain macro environment. Despite this backdrop, we are reaffirming our consolidated financial targets for 2022, driven by our results in the first half of the year and the progress we are making on our strategic initiatives.

在我們更好而不是更大的框架下執行我們的戰略，可以在不確定的宏觀環境中實現更大的敏捷性和彈性。儘管有這樣的背景，在上半年業績和戰略舉措取得進展的推動下，我們重申了 2022 年的綜合財務目標。

For the full year 2022, consolidated revenues are expected to be about $102 billion, which takes into account the divestiture of UPS Freight. Consolidated operating margin is expected to be approximately 13.7%, and return on invested capital is anticipated to be above 30%.

考慮到 UPS Freight 的剝離，2022 年全年的合併收入預計約為 1020 億美元。合併營業利潤率預計約為 13.7%，投資資本回報率預計將超過 30%。

Looking specifically at the second half of 2022, in U.S. Domestic, we anticipate back half 2022 revenue growth of around 5.5%, driven by strong revenue quality, and we expect second half operating margin to expand to about 11.6%, which is consistent with our full year guidance.

具體來看 2022 年下半年，在美國國內，我們預計 2022 年下半年的收入增長約為 5.5%，受收入質量強勁的推動，我們預計下半年營業利潤率將擴大至約 11.6%，這與我們的一致全年指導。

As you update your models for U.S. Domestic, there are a few things to keep in mind. First, we anticipate volume growth rates will improve slightly in the second half of the year compared to the first half, and we expect revenue per piece to continue to increase year-over-year, but at a slower rate than in the front half of the year.

在為美國國內更新模型時，需要記住一些事項。首先，我們預計下半年的銷量增速將比上半年略有改善，我們預計單件收入將繼續同比增長，但增速低於上半年那一年。

Second, we expect an increase in compensation expense in the second half of the year. Our annual wage increase for our Teamster employees goes into effect in August and is $1 per hour, which is higher than last year. Additionally, our current contract includes a cost of living adjustment that will be significantly higher this year compared to last year, and we expect to continue to pay market rate adjustments in certain geographies around the country.

其次，我們預計下半年的補償費用會增加。我們對 Teamster 員工的年度加薪將於 8 月生效，每小時 1 美元，高於去年。此外，我們目前的合同包括與去年相比今年將顯著提高的生活成本調整，我們預計將繼續支付全國某些地區的市場費率調整。

And third, union benefit rates will also increase in August. Together with pension service costs, these union wage and benefit rate increases will add nearly $600 million to our costs in the second half of 2022 compared to the second half of 2021.

第三，工會福利費率也將在 8 月提高。與養老金服務成本一起，與 2021 年下半年相比，這些工會工資和福利率的增加將使我們在 2022 年下半年的成本增加近 6 億美元。

The investments we are making in our integrated network, like our new Harrisburg, Pennsylvania automated hub, Smart Package Smart Facility, additional labeling and bagging automation, plus our Total Service Plan will help to offset the increase in wages and benefits in the back half of the year. And we expect our cost per piece growth rate will be lower than in the first half of the year as we continue to implement our productivity initiatives. The combination of our revenue and cost initiatives will enable us to grow revenue per piece faster than cost per piece and achieve our 11.6% full year operating margin target.

我們在綜合網絡中進行的投資，例如我們新的賓夕法尼亞州哈里斯堡自動化中心、智能包裝智能設施、額外的標籤和裝袋自動化，以及我們的全面服務計劃，將有助於抵消下半年工資和福利的增長。那一年。我們預計，隨著我們繼續實施生產力計劃，我們的單件成本增長率將低於上半年。我們的收入和成本計劃的結合將使我們能夠以比每件成本更快的速度增長每件收入，並實現我們 11.6% 的全年營業利潤率目標。

Moving to the International segment. In the second half of the year, we anticipate volume growth rates will improve relative to the first half, driven by our speed and service advantages in Europe. We expect revenue growth to be in the low single digits. Additionally, we expect currency will remain a headwind in the second half of the year. Operating margin in the International segment is anticipated to be about 23%.

轉移到國際部分。在我們在歐洲的速度和服務優勢的推動下，我們預計下半年的銷量增長率將相對於上半年有所改善。我們預計收入增長將處於低個位數。此外，我們預計貨幣在下半年仍將是逆風。國際部門的營業利潤率預計約為 23%。

In Supply Chain Solutions, we expect revenue in the second half of 2022 of nearly $9 billion, driven by our logistics and healthcare businesses. We've already begun to see ocean forwarding rates moderate, and we expect that trend to continue further year-over-year. Operating margin in the Supply Chain Solutions segment is expected to be about 10%. On a consolidated basis, we anticipate operating margin will be around 13.6% in the back half of 2022, with the fourth quarter increasing about 20 basis points year-over-year. And lastly, we expect the tax rate to be around 23% for the remainder of the year.

在供應鏈解決方案方面，我們預計 2022 年下半年的收入將接近 90 億美元，這主要得益於我們的物流和醫療保健業務。我們已經開始看到海運運費放緩，我們預計這一趨勢將進一步逐年繼續。供應鏈解決方案部門的營業利潤率預計約為 10%。綜合來看，我們預計 2022 年下半年的營業利潤率將在 13.6% 左右，第四季度同比增長約 20 個基點。最後，我們預計今年剩餘時間的稅率將在 23% 左右。

Turning to capital allocation. For the full year, in 2022, we still expect free cash flow to be around $9 billion, including our annual pension contributions. Capital expenditures are still planned to be about 5.4% of revenue or $5.5 billion. We plan to pay out around $5.2 billion in dividends, subject to Board approval. We plan to repay $2 billion in debt at maturity this year, including the $1 billion we've already paid in the first half of the year.

轉向資本配置。到 2022 年全年，我們仍預計自由現金流約為 90 億美元，包括我們的年度養老金繳款。資本支出仍計劃佔收入的 5.4% 左右，即 55 億美元。我們計劃支付約 52 億美元的股息，但須經董事會批准。我們計劃在今年償還 20 億美元的債務，其中包括我們在上半年已經支付的 10 億美元。

Lastly, in terms of share repurchases, we are, again, increasing the amount of cash we plan to allocate to share repurchases, taking the target up from $2 billion to $3 billion in 2022, further rewarding our shareowners. The execution of our strategy is enabling greater agility and has driven fundamental changes to nearly every aspect of our business.

最後，在股票回購方面，我們再次增加計劃分配給股票回購的現金數額，將目標從 2022 年的 20 億美元提高到 30 億美元，進一步獎勵我們的股東。我們戰略的執行提高了敏捷性，並推動了我們業務幾乎所有方面的根本性變化。

As we discussed last quarter, there are multiple ways for us to deliver our targets, including offsetting softer volume through revenue quality and productivity. We have many levers to pull, and we are confident that we will deliver the targets we've laid out.

正如我們上個季度所討論的，我們有多種方式來實現我們的目標，包括通過收入質量和生產力來抵消疲軟的銷量。我們有很多槓桿可以拉動，我們有信心實現我們制定的目標。

Thank you, and operator, please open the lines.

謝謝，接線員，請開行。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Chris Wetherbee of Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Citi 的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe starting, Brian, where you left off on sort of the cost side, thinking about the ramp-up in the back half of the year. I know it's early, but I want to get a sense of what you think sort of the expense profile of the business, particularly on the domestic side is going to look like exiting '22?

也許開始，Brian，你在成本方面停下來，考慮到今年下半年的增長。我知道現在還為時過早，但我想了解一下您認為該業務的費用概況，特別是在國內方面，看起來像是退出 22 年？

And as we think about 2023, I know you have the Teamster contract coming up next year, probably a little too early to talk about that. But it seems like there's some cost inflation kind of picking up. I want to get a sense of maybe how you think about that exiting the year? And what are the buckets you can kind of attack to maybe offset that?

當我們考慮到 2023 年時，我知道您將在明年獲得 Teamster 合同，現在談論這個可能還為時過早。但似乎有一些成本通脹正在上升。我想了解一下您對這一年的看法？什麼是你可以攻擊的桶來抵消它？

Yes, Chris, thanks for the question. Look, we expect CPP in the back half of the year to actually improve versus the first half. As I think about 2H, we're looking to put about $1.7 billion up in revenue growth in domestic, and there'll be a comparable increase in cost of about $1.7 billion.

是的，克里斯，謝謝你的提問。看，我們預計今年下半年的 CPP 會比上半年有所改善。當我想到 2H 時，我們希望在國內增加約 17 億美元的收入增長，而成本將相應增加約 17 億美元。

But Nando and the team in the U.S. are taking a number of actions to actually drive productivity and efficiency. We just launched Total Service Plan. We've got Smart Package/Smart facility, cube automation, a number of initiatives. Those will drive about $300 million to reduce that $1.7 billion in cost increase. So as I think about exiting, I actually think CPP will be high single digit in the second half of the year. And so as we exit, I think we'll be in good shape going into '23.

但是 Nando 和美國的團隊正在採取一些行動來真正提高生產力和效率。我們剛剛推出了全面服務計劃。我們有智能包裝/智能設施、立方體自動化和許多舉措。這些將推動大約 3 億美元，以減少 17 億美元的成本增加。所以當我考慮退出時，我實際上認為CPP將在下半年達到高個位數。所以當我們退出時，我認為我們會在 23 年保持良好狀態。

And maybe just a little color on the Total Service Plan. This is a transformative initiative for our company. And it's really running our integrated network the way it was designed to run. And to make that real for you, sometimes we're a little light with feeder arrivals and departures. And with the initiative that we just kicked off on July 11 is about getting back on time and to dimensionalize that for you, a 10-minute improvement within the integrated network is worth $257 million.

也許只是整體服務計劃的一點顏色。這對我們公司來說是一項變革性舉措。它確實按照設計運行的方式運行我們的集成網絡。為了讓您真正做到這一點，有時我們對支線的到達和離開有點輕率。我們剛剛在 7 月 11 日啟動的計劃是關於準時並為您確定這一點，集成網絡內 10 分鐘的改進價值 2.57 億美元。

So we're really excited about this. We've just kicked it off. It was a monumental effort. Get this, Nando and his team had to have one-on-one conversations with 64,000 drivers in our company, talking to them about their individualized service plan because some people want to get home for dinner at night and some people want to have some overtime. So we've built individualized plans for our drivers, and we retrained hundreds of thousands of people in our methods. And we're very, very excited about the Total Service Plan.

所以我們對此感到非常興奮。我們剛剛開始。這是一項巨大的努力。得到這個，Nando 和他的團隊不得不與我們公司的 64,000 名司機進行一對一的對話，與他們討論他們的個性化服務計劃，因為有些人想晚上回家吃飯，有些人想加班.因此，我們為我們的司機制定了個性化的計劃，並用我們的方法對數十萬人進行了再培訓。我們對全面服務計劃感到非常非常興奮。

Our next question comes from the line of Allison (inaudible) Ann Poliniak of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Allison（聽不清）Ann Poliniak。

I just want to ask a question on SMBs. Obviously, you're growing faster than the market, Deal Manager obviously impacting that as well. Is there a way to think about that as we kind of look to the back half? Does that outperformance still continue? And I think Deal Manager also touches on pricing a little bit. Does that, I guess, strength in that revenue quality, the SMBs that you guys are onboarding at this point?

我只想問一個關於中小企業的問題。顯然，你的增長速度超過了市場，交易經理顯然也影響了這一點。當我們看後半部分時，有沒有辦法考慮這一點？這種出色的表現還會繼續嗎？而且我認為 Deal Manager 也涉及到定價問題。我猜，你們目前正在入職的中小型企業在收入質量方面是否有優勢？

Yes. From a numbers perspective, Allison, we had guided to 150 basis points of SMB improvement as a percentage of volume mix in the U.S. We're right on track to do that. We had a bit stronger performance in the second quarter, 200 bps, but we're holding to that full year 150. So that obviously does contribute to the revenue quality that we saw in the first half and we'll see in the second half.

是的。從數字的角度來看，艾莉森，我們已經將 SMB 的改善作為美國銷量組合的百分比提高了 150 個基點。我們正朝著實現這一目標的方向前進。我們在第二季度的表現稍強，為 200 個基點，但我們將全年保持在 150 個基點。因此，這顯然確實有助於我們在上半年看到的收入質量，我們將在下半年看到.

Our SMB initiative is multifaceted. And certainly, Deal Manager is part of it. We saw our win rate at 71% in the second quarter, that was 12 percentage points higher than we had planned. So we were super excited about that, and we're looking forward to rolling that outside the United States.

我們的 SMB 計劃是多方面的。當然，交易經理也是其中的一部分。我們在第二季度看到我們的勝率達到 71%，比我們計劃的高出 12 個百分點。所以我們對此感到非常興奮，我們期待在美國以外推廣。

But it's not just the Deal Manager. By the way, I should say with Deal Manager, we're holding more of the base rate, which is great, too. That's part of the RPP strategy here. But it's much more the Deal Manager thinking about that, we have $1 billion of DAP revenue in the first 6 months of the year. And in fact, the revenue in the second quarter grew by about 100%. So we are on track to have $2 billion in DAP in the back half of the year.

但這不僅僅是交易經理。順便說一句，我應該和交易經理說，我們持有更多的基本利率，這也很棒。這是此處 RPP 策略的一部分。但交易經理更多地考慮這一點，我們在今年前 6 個月有 10 億美元的 DAP 收入。事實上，第二季度的收入增長了約 100%。因此，我們有望在今年下半年擁有 20 億美元的 DAP。

We've got 18 key partners, 2.5 million merchants on the DAP platform, and we're taking that outside the United States as well. But there's more to it. It's about creating a seamless and frictionless experience for our customers. And as you know we have 16 customer journeys, we've actually identified 3 of those that really matter. And one of those is we've kind of thrown our wallet in the middle of the road, and we're going after it. And that's how to manage claims.

我們在 DAP 平台上有 18 個主要合作夥伴、250 萬商家，我們也在將其帶到美國以外。但還有更多。這是為我們的客戶創造無縫和無摩擦的體驗。如您所知，我們有 16 個客戶旅程，實際上我們已經確定了其中 3 個真正重要的旅程。其中之一是我們有點把錢包扔在路中間，我們正在追它。這就是如何管理索賠。

The claims process here is pretty clunky and it's not a good customer experience. So we are staffing that, Brian. We're staffing that and we're going to fix the claims experience because we think if we eliminate that pain point, we're going to grow even faster than the market, which we're already doing.

這裡的索賠過程非常笨拙，而且客戶體驗不好。所以我們正在為此配備人員，布賴恩。我們正在為此配備人員，我們將修復索賠體驗，因為我們認為，如果我們消除這個痛點，我們的增長速度將超過我們已經在做的市場。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman of Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Congratulations. So the inbound questions I'm getting on this release are volumes came in a little lower than expected. Why isn't this a negative economic signal? Now you had a couple of anomalies that Brian went through in the quarter, and you talked about second half growth improving. So how do you read the economic tea leaves?

恭喜。因此，我在此版本中收到的入站問題是數量略低於預期。為什麼這不是一個負面的經濟信號？現在你遇到了布賴恩在本季度經歷的一些異常情況，你談到了下半年的增長改善。那麼如何解讀經濟茶葉呢？

I know you mentioned that GDP forecast had come down, but it sounds like you're more optimistic about volume returning to the network in the second half in part because you're deemphasizing the volumes you don't want. But what are our takeaways here?

我知道你提到 GDP 預測已經下降，但聽起來你對下半年回歸網絡的交易量更加樂觀，部分原因是你不再強調你不想要的交易量。但是我們在這裡的收穫是什麼？

Well, maybe I'll start, Brian, and then you could add. So -- if you recall, at the end of the first quarter, we told you we thought our volumes would be down in the second quarter. They were. They were down a little bit more than we thought. We missed our forecast by 222,000 packages a day. And that miss was split evenly between the U.S. business and the international business.

好吧，也許我會開始，布賴恩，然後你可以添加。所以 - 如果你還記得，在第一季度末，我們告訴你我們認為我們的銷量會在第二季度下降。他們是。他們比我們想像的要低一點。我們錯過了每天 222,000 個包裹的預測。這一失誤在美國業務和國際業務之間平分秋色。

So I would call that pretty close to being on forecast. As Brian detailed in his prepared remarks, more than half of the volume decline in the United States was based on actions that we took with a few of our customers under our better, not bigger framework. One of those customers is Amazon. So I'm just going to talk about Amazon right now.

所以我認為這非常接近預測。正如布賴恩在他準備好的講話中所詳述的那樣，美國一半以上的銷量下降是基於我們在更好而不是更大的框架下與一些客戶採取的行動。其中一位客戶是亞馬遜。所以我現在只想談談亞馬遜。

We have a great relationship with Amazon. They are our largest customer. But as we've shared with you in the past, we have reached a contractual agreement with Amazon about the volume that we will take into our network and the volume that they will deliver.

我們與亞馬遜的關係很好。他們是我們最大的客戶。但正如我們過去與您分享的那樣，我們已經與亞馬遜就我們將進入我們的網絡的數量以及他們將交付的數量達成了合同協議。

No, by the way, they got a lot of volume to deliver. The last time I looked, they have $35 billion of inventory. So they've got a lot of volume to deliver. But we've contractually agreed on what makes sense for us versus what makes sense for them. That means that both volume and revenue for Amazon is coming down. We project by the end of this year that Amazon revenue will be less than 11% of our total revenue. That gives us room to grow in the parts of the market that we want to grow, like SMB and B2B and healthcare and others.

不，順便說一句，他們有很多要交付的數量。我上次查看時，他們有 350 億美元的庫存。所以他們有大量的交付量。但是我們已經在合同上就對我們有意義的東西和對他們有意義的東西達成了一致。這意味著亞馬遜的銷量和收入都在下降。我們預計到今年年底，亞馬遜的收入將不到我們總收入的 11%。這為我們提供了在我們想要增長的市場部分中增長的空間，例如 SMB 和 B2B 以及醫療保健等。

So part of this is a glide path that's occurring. We thought we could fill up the divot with more enterprise volumes than we got. Part of that is macro, but here are a few fun facts. Of our top 20 customers in the second quarter, more than 65% of them grew volume with us. Another fun fact is that in the second quarter, we won new great revenue quality business in the enterprise part of our segment than we have in the past 5 years.

因此，其中一部分是正在發生的下滑路徑。我們認為我們可以用比我們得到的更多的企業數量來填補空缺。其中一部分是宏觀的，但這裡有一些有趣的事實。在我們第二季度的前 20 名客戶中，超過 65% 的客戶與我們一起增加了交易量。另一個有趣的事實是，與過去 5 年相比，我們在第二季度的企業部分贏得了新的高收入質量業務。

Now that volume hasn't come into the network yet because we just won it, but it's coming in the back half. So we are running our business the way that we want to run it in this better, not bigger framework despite the macro environment.

現在這個數量還沒有進入網絡，因為我們剛剛贏得了它，但它正在進入後半部分。因此，儘管存在宏觀環境，但我們正在以我們希望在這個更好而不是更大的框架中運行業務的方式運行我們的業務。

And Brian, what else do you want to share?

還有布賴恩，你還想分享什麼？

I only had the RPP side of that equation. Carol just painted a better, not bigger picture that we're running, Jeff. But on the back of that is revenue quality, and you see that in the domestic margin of 12% in the second quarter. I think we committed to 11.6% in the first half and 11.6% in the second half. We feel good about that running this play Carol just described.

我只有這個等式的 RPP 方面。卡羅爾剛剛描繪了我們正在運行的更好，而不是更大的圖景，傑夫。但其背後是收入質量，第二季度國內利潤率為 12%。我認為我們承諾上半年達到 11.6%，下半年達到 11.6%。我們對運行卡羅爾剛剛描述的這部劇感覺很好。

And we're holding on to the more of the GRI aren't we? We're not discounting as much. And part of that is because our customers value the service that we provide. Our end-to-end network is allowing us to deliver record high service levels, and that matters. That really matters.

我們正在堅持更多的 GRI，不是嗎？我們沒有打折那麼多。部分原因是我們的客戶重視我們提供的服務。我們的端到端網絡使我們能夠提供創紀錄的高服務水平，這很重要。這真的很重要。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Carol, Brian and Ken, maybe thoughts to continue that discussion a bit. Maybe thoughts on the RPP there, Brian. As fuel comes down, we're moving under $100 per barrel. You talked about a bit about the splits. Does that start to impact? Is there a profitability built into that revenue stream from fuel? Maybe just kind of walk through that a bit.

Carol、Brian 和 Ken，也許想繼續討論一下。布賴恩，也許對那裡的 RPP 有想法。隨著燃料的下降，我們的價格將低於每桶 100 美元。你談到了一些關於分裂的事情。這是否開始產生影響？燃料收入流中是否有盈利能力？也許只是有點走過去。

Yes, Ken. Thanks for the question. And I think we feel fine about the fuel. It's obviously gone up at record levels in terms of the increase versus last year. And as we see fuel costs rise, Ken, our profit dollars actually increased. Margins contract a bit on the upside.

是的，肯。謝謝你的問題。我認為我們對燃料感覺很好。與去年相比，它顯然達到了創紀錄的水平。當我們看到燃料成本上升時，肯，我們的利潤實際上增加了。利潤率略有上升。

In the quarter, about 1/3 of RPP growth came from fuel, and we're splitting that out. That's fuel price per gallon. We're splitting that out from the management actions we've taken on pricing, which would go into a different bucket. So we've tried to provide more transparency.

在本季度，大約 1/3 的 RPP 增長來自燃料，我們正在將其分開。這是每加侖的燃油價格。我們將其從我們對定價採取的管理措施中分離出來，這將進入不同的存儲桶。所以我們試圖提供更多的透明度。

As fuel goes down, I think the efficiency of our 1-week lag on the fuel service charge we feel like we're protected or insulated from a margin perspective. So feel okay and the constructive Q2 RPP. 1/3 was fuel, 1/3 was what Carol talked about, the revenue quality led by service, and then the last piece of that was the combination of mix, Ken, plus the management actions on fuel. So that's how we're looking at it and thinking about it.

隨著燃料的下降，我認為我們在燃料服務費上的 1 週滯後效率讓我們覺得從利潤的角度來看我們受到了保護或絕緣。所以感覺還好，建設性的 Q2 RPP。 1/3 是燃料，1/3 是卡羅爾所說的，由服務主導的收入質量，最後一部分是混合、肯以及燃料管理措施的組合。所以這就是我們看待它和思考它的方式。

Our next question will come from the line of Amit Mehrotra of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

I guess just related to the domestic margin question. I think the algorithm when you guys provided your multiyear forecast was kind of 20-ish percent incremental margins. And you're pretty darn close in the second quarter. I think you're actually forecasting that or pretty close in the back half of the year.

我想這與國內保證金問題有關。我認為當你們提供多年預測時的算法是 20% 左右的增量利潤率。你在第二季度非常接近。我認為你實際上在今年下半年預測或非常接近。

The world has changed since then from an inflation perspective. So I think it's pretty impressive that you're still hitting that number. But is that -- Brian, as you look out in '23, which is still within that multiyear forecast period, is that 20%-plus still hold in terms of an incremental margin target for domestic?

從通貨膨脹的角度來看，世界從那時起發生了變化。所以我認為你仍然達到這個數字令人印象深刻。但那是 - 布賴恩，正如你在 23 年所看到的那樣，仍然在那個多年的預測期內，就國內的增量利潤率目標而言，20% 以上是否仍然存在？

And then, Carol, I think one of the key questions and the overhang on the stock, at least, is this union renegotiation that's coming up next year. I understand it's sensitive and highly strategic, but any color? Because it is a $30 billion to $35 billion expense base for the company.

然後，卡羅爾，我認為關鍵問題之一和股票的懸垂，至少是明年即將到來的工會重新談判。我知道它很敏感且具有高度戰略意義，但是有什麼顏色嗎？因為它是公司 300 億到 350 億美元的支出基礎。

And any additional color, at least in terms of how you're strategically thinking about that renegotiation, that helps us form what type of inflation the company is going to be -- have over the next several years starting next year would be helpful?

任何額外的顏色，至少就你如何從戰略上考慮重新談判而言，這有助於我們形成公司將成為什麼樣的通貨膨脹——從明年開始在接下來的幾年裡會有幫助嗎？

Yes, Amit, good question. So the answer to the first part of the question is, as we think about the walk on margins, that low 20s number that we're delivering it's a bit challenged in a down volume environment. And so we need to pull other levers to make sure we get there.

是的，阿米特，好問題。因此，問題第一部分的答案是，當我們考慮利潤率時，我們提供的 20 多歲的低數字在銷量下降的環境中有點挑戰。所以我們需要拉動其他槓桿來確保我們到達那裡。

What we're focused on with the guidance that I had given at the investor conference in '21, which is 12% op margin in the U.S. We are still very much on track to do that. I think the guidance we gave for this year was to go from 11.1 to 11.6. We're on track to do that and then to lift the balance next year. So still tracking to the 12% and looking to expand margin on a longer-term basis.

我們關注的重點是我在 21 年投資者會議上給出的指導，在美國是 12% 的營業利潤率。我們仍然非常有可能做到這一點。我認為我們今年給出的指導是從 11.1 到 11.6。我們有望做到這一點，然後在明年解除平衡。所以仍然追踪到 12%，並希望在更長期的基礎上擴大利潤率。

We have additional productivity levers today that we didn't have in our investor conference 1 year ago. One of those would be the Total Service Plan. Maybe Nando was thinking about it, but we haven't kicked it off or actually put it into any of our financial plans 1 year ago.

今天，我們擁有額外的生產力槓桿，這是一年前在投資者會議上所沒有的。其中之一就是全面服務計劃。也許 Nando 正在考慮它，但一年前我們還沒有啟動它，也沒有真正將它納入我們的任何財務計劃。

We're also seeing some real opportunities with our Smart Package/ Smart Facility initiative, which we hadn't thought of 1 year ago. When we get that rolled out, we're going to eliminate all the manual scans, all those preload scans that are done manually, all that will be eliminated. All of the tens of thousands of misloads that occur every day, sorry to say, we do misload a package from time to time or lots of times.

我們還看到了我們一年前沒有想到的智能包裝/智能設施計劃的一些真正機會。當我們推出時，我們將消除所有手動掃描，所有手動完成的預加載掃描，所有這些都將被消除。每天發生的數以萬計的錯誤加載，很抱歉，我們確實會不時或多次錯誤加載一個包裹。

So all of that's got to be eliminated. So we've got additional productivity initiatives that we didn't have 1 year ago, which even in an environment where, yes, costs are up more than we thought they would be, we're able to offset those costs. I think it's pretty impressive that we didn't -- we planned for the $1 an hour increase for our Teamster starting in August. We didn't plan for the COLA that we're seeing. We knew there would be some inflation, but not the amount that we are seeing and we're able to offset all of that, aren't we Brian?

因此，所有這些都必須消除。因此，我們有了一年前沒有的額外生產力計劃，即使在成本上升超過我們預期的環境中，我們也能夠抵消這些成本。我認為我們沒有這樣做令人印象深刻——我們計劃從 8 月開始為 Teamster 每小時增加 1 美元。我們沒有計劃我們看到的可樂。我們知道會有一些通貨膨脹，但不是我們所看到的數量，我們能夠抵消所有這些，不是嗎布賴恩？

Yes, that's -- Carol, it's actually a big number. We're going to see -- we saw $0.33 in COLA, the cost-of-living adjustment last year. We're going to see $0.82 this year. So you combine that to $1 in contractual wage increase. Last year, we went $1.23. This year, it will be $1.82. The fact that we're able to manage through that and drive the additional productivity you talked about when the environment turns around in an up volume environment, should be cooking on all cylinders.

是的，那是——卡羅爾，這實際上是一個很大的數字。我們將看到 - 我們看到 COLA 為 0.33 美元，這是去年的生活成本調整。今年我們將看到 0.82 美元。因此，您將其與 1 美元的合同工資增長相結合。去年，我們花了 1.23 美元。今年將是 1.82 美元。當環境在容量增加的環境中轉變時，我們能夠管理並推動您所說的額外生產力，這一事實應該在所有氣缸上烹飪。

And to your question on the union negotiation first, these are incredibly important to us, and we've had Teamsters in our company for 100 years or thereabout. As we think about the upcoming contract negotiation, we're going to leave the negotiations at the bargaining table.

對於你關於工會談判的問題，這些對我們來說非常重要，我們公司的 Teamsters 已經有 100 年左右的時間了。當我們考慮即將到來的合同談判時，我們將把談判留在談判桌上。

But just a few things for you to remember. Our Teamsters are the highest paid in the industry, both wage and benefits. In fact, if you're a 4-year driver here, you're making $40 an hour and fully loaded with benefits close to $150,000 a year. So our workforce is very different than a lot of the workforce that you hear in the media every day that are trying to be organized. They're not paid the way that our Teamsters are paid. These are great jobs that we value very much.

但只有幾件事讓你記住。我們的卡車司機是業內薪酬最高的，無論是工資還是福利。事實上，如果你是一個在這里工作了 4 年的司機，你每小時可以賺 40 美元，並且每年可以享受近 150,000 美元的福利。因此，我們的員工隊伍與您每天在媒體上聽到的許多試圖組織起來的員工隊伍截然不同。他們的報酬不像我們的 Teamsters 那樣得到報酬。這些都是我們非常重視的好工作。

Our goal with the Teamsters is win-win-win, and that's our goal. And again, we'll keep the details of that win-win-win strategy at the bargaining table. The other thing I'll leave with you, and this is, I think, an important point is we're winning business today with customers who know, we have an upcoming negotiation because we've told our customers, we're going to take care of them. We are building contingency plans, and we will take care of our customers.

我們與 Teamsters 的目標是雙贏，這就是我們的目標。再一次，我們將把雙贏戰略的細節保留在談判桌上。另一件事我會留給你，我認為，重要的一點是我們今天贏得了客戶的業務，他們知道，我們即將進行談判，因為我們已經告訴我們的客戶，我們將照顧他們。我們正在製定應急計劃，我們將照顧我們的客戶。

Our next question will come from the line of Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自沃爾夫研究的斯科特集團。

Brian, just a couple of few things I want to just follow up with you. Can you talk about the net impact of fuel in the quarter? How you're thinking about currency in the back half of the year? And I think you gave a comment about fourth quarter margins, but I didn't hear anything about third quarter margins. So if you could just help there.

布賴恩，我想跟您跟進幾件事。您能談談本季度燃料的淨影響嗎？您如何看待下半年的貨幣？而且我認為您對第四季度的利潤率發表了評論，但我沒有聽到有關第三季度利潤率的任何消息。所以，如果你能在那裡幫忙。

Sure, Scott. From a margin perspective, look, we -- I guess, as a whole company, we'd expect all business segments to have higher margins in Q4 relative to Q3 based on the seasonality, Scott, we expect the back half domestic margin seasonality to be very similar to last year relative to Q2.

當然，斯科特。從利潤率的角度來看，我們——我想，作為一個整體公司，我們預計所有業務部門在第四季度的利潤率都高於第三季度，基於季節性，斯科特，我們預計後半部分國內利潤率的季節性將相對於第二季度，與去年非常相似。

So if you go back last year and look at Q2, the sequential Q3, Q4, the change should be comparable. As far as the currency and fuel that you laid in, look a stronger USD in Q2, it reduced our reported international revenue by, I think it was $261 million and reduced international profit by $60 million.

因此，如果您回顧去年的第二季度、第三季度、第四季度的連續變化，那麼變化應該是可比的。至於你投入的貨幣和燃料，在第二季度看起來美元走強，它使我們報告的國際收入減少了 2.61 億美元，國際利潤減少了 6000 萬美元。

And I think you're familiar, Scott, with the layered hedge we use as a percentage of our revenue to manage that. In terms of fuel, fuel prices increased. We take a layered approach and start hedging that out about a few years in advance. We try to be 100% hedged. So the revenue impact will be more than the profit impact. But net-net, I think we feel fuel prices will moderate in the back end of the year.

我想你很熟悉，斯科特，我們使用分層對沖作為我們收入的百分比來管理它。在燃料方面，燃料價格上漲。我們採取分層方法，並提前幾年開始對沖。我們嘗試 100% 對沖。因此，收入影響將大於利潤影響。但是net-net，我認為我們認為燃料價格將在年底放緩。

The net impact in the quarter was 400 basis points. And as we look at dimensionalizing further, we're splitting out the elements of management control pricing actions versus the price per gallon, Scott, to give you more transparency.

本季度的淨影響為 400 個基點。當我們進一步考慮維度化時，我們將管理控制定價行為的元素與每加侖的價格分開，Scott，為您提供更高的透明度。

Yes. I think, Scott, the way I think about it is the change in the price per gallon is one component of the RPP. And as Brian called it out, that was 400 basis points on the RPP in the second quarter. The costs associated that also impacted cost per piece or our overall increase in expenses, up 370 basis points related to fuel.

是的。我認為，斯科特，我認為每加侖價格的變化是 RPP 的一個組成部分。正如布賴恩所說，這是第二季度 RPP 的 400 個基點。相關成本也影響了單件成本或我們的總體費用增加，與燃料相關的成本增加了 370 個基點。

So as the price per gallon goes up or down, the margin is pretty protected. To the change in price per gallon, we also have a pricing algorithm, but it has -- it's just used it fuel as a simple way to price. It's just price. So don't think of those pricing actions as anything different than price. And fuel margins will just hold tight if you look at change in price per gallon on the revenue line and change on pricing gallon on the expense line. That's how I think about it.

因此，隨著每加侖價格的上漲或下跌，利潤得到了很好的保護。對於每加侖價格的變化，我們也有一個定價算法，但它有——它只是將它用作燃料作為一種簡單的定價方式。這只是價格。因此，不要將這些定價行為視為與價格不同的任何東西。如果您查看收入線上每加侖價格的變化以及費用線上每加侖定價的變化，燃料利潤率將保持不變。我就是這麼想的。

Our next question will come from the line of Todd Fowler of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Todd Fowler。

So I guess I wanted to ask on your peak expectations. It sounds like that there was maybe a little bit of cost here in the quarter from a hiring standpoint as you prepare for the peak. I guess I'm curious what your expectation would be. It seems like that the second half outlook Is a little bit uncertain just how the peak this year would compare to last year.

所以我想我想問一下你的最高期望。從招聘的角度來看，當您為高峰期做準備時，聽起來本季度可能會有一點成本。我想我很好奇你的期望是什麼。下半年的前景似乎有點不確定今年的峰值與去年相比如何。

And then with the $300 million of productivity improvement that you're expecting in the back half of the year, is that something that you hold on to and carries forward into '23? Or how do we think about the sustainability of those cost improvements?

然後，隨著您期望在今年下半年提高 3 億美元的生產力，您是否會堅持並延續到 23 年？或者我們如何看待這些成本改進的可持續性？

Yes. Certainly, the productivity piece, we would hold on to that. And to Carol's earlier comment, we're going to build on it. So that would carry forward.

是的。當然，生產力部分，我們會堅持下去。對於 Carol 之前的評論，我們將在此基礎上再接再厲。這樣就可以發揚光大了。

On peak, we're getting forecast from all of our large customers now as we build our peak planning and we expect it to be a good peak. Inventory levels are good. Retailers are priming to sell. Where last year, they didn't. So that should help the peak demand.

在高峰期，我們現在正在從我們所有的大客戶那裡得到預測，因為我們正在製定我們的高峰期計劃，我們預計這將是一個很好的高峰期。庫存水平良好。零售商正準備出售。去年，他們沒有。所以這應該有助於高峰需求。

And then the comment about expenses, and we could have done better, is we managed hours relative to the volume. I'm really proud of that. A few years ago, we wouldn't have been able to do that. We would have delevered, but we were able to manage our hours. Nando and his team and Kate and her team did a great job on that.

然後關於費用的評論，我們本可以做得更好，是我們管理相對於數量的時間。我真的為此感到自豪。幾年前，我們無法做到這一點。我們會去槓桿，但我們能夠管理我們的時間。 Nando 和他的團隊以及 Kate 和她的團隊在這方面做得很好。

We kept the bench though. Because if we let the bench go, then we'd have to rehire them for peak, and that doesn't seem like a good idea. Now the bench, obviously, we don't pay an hourly wage if they're not working, but they do get benefits. So I would say that's the money that we left on the table, but we'll get that back in spade by giving great service to our customers during peak.

不過我們保留了替補席。因為如果我們讓替補席離開，那麼我們將不得不重新僱傭他們，這似乎不是一個好主意。現在板凳，顯然，如果他們不工作，我們不會支付小時工資，但他們確實得到了福利。所以我會說這是我們留在桌子上的錢，但我們將通過在高峰期為我們的客戶提供優質服務來收回這些錢。

Our next question will come from the line of Jordan Alliger of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

I was wondering can you talk a little bit more about the Total Service Plan? Just trying to understand a little bit perhaps what the implementation or rollout aspect of that may be? And how quickly that starts to dig in? And is that a part of the contribution to this year's second half cost saves, et cetera?

我想知道你能多談談全面服務計劃嗎？只是想稍微了解一下它的實現或推出方面可能是什麼？以及它開始挖掘的速度有多快？這是否是今年下半年成本節省的一部分，等等？

Yes, Jordan, it's included in my $300 million that I talked about in terms of driving productivity. And as Carol mentioned, it just kicked off, I think, July 11. So we're just getting going here. Net-net, it's to run a precision on-time network. So we don't have late deliveries or late departures. And it's worth quite a bit to us. It will ramp up over time. Carol mentioned that Nando and the team met with over 60,000 people talking about their specific service plans. Pretty exciting when you think about what can be accomplished from a TSP perspective.

是的，喬丹，它包含在我談到的提高生產力的 3 億美元中。正如 Carol 提到的，它剛剛開始，我想是 7 月 11 日。所以我們才剛剛開始。 Net-net，就是運行一個精確的準時網絡。所以我們沒有延遲交貨或延遲離開。這對我們來說很有價值。它會隨著時間的推移而增加。 Carol 提到 Nando 和團隊會見了 60,000 多人，討論了他們的具體服務計劃。當您從 TSP 的角度考慮可以完成的事情時，這非常令人興奮。

And Brian, Ken, I'm going to call an audible here, and I'm going to throw that question over to Nando. Nando, do you want to talk a little bit more about the Total Service Plan?

還有布賴恩，肯，我要在這裡叫一個可聽的，我要把這個問題交給南多。 Nando，你想多談談全面服務計劃嗎？

Yes, sure. So the plan is really based on, as Brian mentioned, a predictable environment where our operators can plan with a lot of confidence on start time, finish time, sort spans, how we can better utilize our automated facilities and move volume from legacy facilities to our newer, more automated facilities.

是的，當然。因此，正如布賴恩所提到的，該計劃實際上是基於一個可預測的環境，我們的操作員可以在開始時間、結束時間、分類跨度、我們如何更好地利用我們的自動化設施並將數量從傳統設施轉移到我們更新、更自動化的設施。

In addition to that, we've catered a very unique dispatch for our full-time drivers. And so we expect that the efficiencies coming out of those customized dispatches and the service we provide are going to allow us to run a really, really great efficient network for our customers and our employees.

除此之外，我們還為我們的全職司機提供了一個非常獨特的調度。因此，我們希望這些定制調度和我們提供的服務帶來的效率將使我們能夠為我們的客戶和員工運行一個非常非常高效的網絡。

Thanks, Nando. And the cool thing is that we're not trying to integrate the network. We already have an integrated network. Now we're just running it the way it was designed.

謝謝，南多。很酷的是，我們並沒有試圖整合網絡。我們已經有一個綜合網絡。現在我們只是按照設計的方式運行它。

Our next question will come from the line of David Vernon of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題將來自伯恩斯坦的大衛弗農的話。

I wanted to see if you could comment a little bit about sort of revenue quality and the efforts you're making on revenue quality and how sensitive they might be to sort of a weaker economic environment. You did a great job, I guess, managing down hours to volume.

我想看看你是否可以評論一下收入質量和你在收入質量方面所做的努力，以及它們對疲軟的經濟環境可能有多敏感。我猜你做得很好，把時間縮短到了音量。

I think the market is looking at the global financial crisis past recessions to kind of get a sense for earnings cyclicality. And I'm just trying to get a sense for what's different about the business today that might limit some of that downside to a downturn or pullback in overall shipping volume versus kind of maybe what we've seen in the past?

我認為市場正在關注經濟衰退後的全球金融危機，以了解盈利的周期性。我只是想了解今天的業務有什麼不同，這可能會將一些不利因素限制為整體運輸量的低迷或回落，而不是我們過去看到的那種情況？

Yes. I think in the past, as I understand it, when air volume softened up, the end was near. Prices softened up. That's just not happening now. As Brian detailed in his prepared remarks, more than half of the volume decline in our business, including air, was because of agreements that we reached with a few of our customers on the volume that we will take and the volume that we won't take.

是的。我想過去，據我所知，當風量變軟時，就快結束了。價格走軟。這只是現在沒有發生。正如布賴恩在他準備好的講話中所詳述的那樣，我們業務（包括空運）業務量下降的一半以上是因為我們與一些客戶就我們將接受和不接受的量達成了協議拿。

The revenue quality is very good. It is sticking. As we bring in new customers, we're bringing them in and at very good revenue quality. Why? Because of what we have to offer. And service Is ourlife. So part of it is what we have to offer from a service perspective, dependability, reliability. And what else do you want to add in terms of revenue quality, perhaps talk a little bit about the technology of the future?

收入質量非常好。它很粘。當我們引入新客戶時，我們正在以非常好的收入質量吸引他們。為什麼？因為我們必須提供。服務是我們的生命。因此，其中一部分是我們必須從服務的角度、可靠性、可靠性提供的東西。您還想在收入質量方面添加什麼，或者談談未來的技術？

Yes. I think we've talked before as we think about dynamic pricing, and we're running some pilots that we feel good about. There's a technology component to that, but from a lag perspective, but the tools that we've been running out -- rolling out with our accounts, whether it's Deal Manager or some of the others, it allows us to be more efficient, more timely.

是的。我認為我們之前在考慮動態定價時已經討論過，並且我們正在運行一些我們感覺良好的試點。這有一個技術組件，但從滯後的角度來看，但我們已經用完的工具——隨著我們的賬戶推出，無論是交易經理還是其他一些人，它讓我們更有效率，更多及時。

And quite candidly, the revenue quality is showing 11.9% was the growth in revenue quality for the RPP growth in the second quarter. that's a good number. We expect that to moderate for a few reasons in the back half of the year to high single digit. What's critical there is managing that spread. As Carol talked about, driving the productivity, will bring the CPP down and then deliver on our margin commitments.

坦率地說，收入質量顯示 11.9% 是第二季度 RPP 增長的收入質量增長。這是一個很好的數字。由於一些原因，我們預計今年下半年將放緩至高個位數。關鍵是管理這種傳播。正如 Carol 所說，提高生產力會降低 CPP，然後兌現我們的保證金承諾。

I love Deal Manager for so many ways. It makes it easier for our salespeople first, it makes it better and faster for our customers, which is awesome, but we're also bringing intelligence to the decision-making. Before (inaudible)it came with a bit of tribal knowledge. But now we're using AI to help inform the decisions, and we're coming in at better pricing as a result.

我愛交易經理有很多方面。它首先讓我們的銷售人員更容易，它讓我們的客戶更好更快，這很棒，但我們也為決策帶來了智能。之前（聽不清）它帶有一些部落知識。但現在我們正在使用人工智能來幫助為決策提供信息，結果我們以更好的價格進入。

All right. And then maybe, Brian, can you just clarify the EBIT dollar impact of fuel in the quarter? And if there's any risk that the fuel prices moderate, there's going to be an earnings headwind in sort of 3Q, 4Q?

好的。然後也許，布賴恩，你能澄清一下本季度燃料對 EBIT 美元的影響嗎？如果燃料價格有任何放緩的風險，那麼在第 3 季度、第 4 季度會出現盈利逆風嗎？

I don't see a headwind with the dollar -- with the fuel prices moderating, it's factored into our guidance.

我沒有看到美元的逆風——隨著燃料價格的放緩，它已被納入我們的指導中。

Our next question will come from the line of Bruce Chan of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 Bruce Chan。

Just want to get your sense of how supply chains are flowing right now. Maybe just broadly upfront, but also in the context of your CapEx plans for rolling stock and automated facility rollouts. And Brian, maybe if you see any risk to guidance there if we see any additional delays on the supply chain?

只是想了解一下供應鏈現在是如何流動的。也許只是廣泛的前期，但也在您的機車車輛和自動化設施推出的資本支出計劃的背景下。還有布賴恩，如果我們發現供應鏈出現任何額外延遲，您是否認為指導存在風險？

Yes. Why don't I pick up the first -- the back half of that on CapEx, Carol, if you want to add any color on supply chains. But the guide we're holding at $5.5 billion, we feel good about. We're not immune. There are supply chain challenges around the world, and some of the parts and motors and trucks are more challenging to get.

是的。如果你想在供應鏈上添加任何顏色，我為什麼不選擇第一個 - 資本支出的後半部分，卡羅爾。但我們持有 55 億美元的指南，我們感覺很好。我們不能免疫。世界各地都存在供應鏈挑戰，一些零件、電機和卡車更難獲得。

But I think we look at capital now from a sort of a perpetual rolling cycle. It's not episodic. And so we're looking at opportunities to invest in different areas that may not have been in the original plan to drive automation, et cetera. So we're hold to $5.5 billion. That you can hold and we'll continue to remain agile, keep you updated if there's any change. I don't expect a big change.

但我認為我們現在從一種永久的滾動週期來看待資本。這不是偶發的。因此，我們正在尋找投資於不同領域的機會，這些領域可能不在推動自動化的原始計劃中，等等。所以我們持有55億美元。您可以堅持，我們將繼續保持敏捷，如果有任何變化，請及時通知您。我預計不會有大的變化。

Supply chains are flowing better than they were a year ago. But we're not out of the woods. And a lot of it has to do with the rolling COVID lockdowns in China. We're shutdown in Shenzhen again. And we thought we'd gone through the worst in the second quarter.

供應鏈的流動性比一年前要好。但我們還沒有走出困境。這在很大程度上與中國滾動的 COVID 封鎖有關。深圳又停工了。我們認為我們在第二季度經歷了最糟糕的時期。

Kate and her team did a masterful job of managing through this. Get this, because of the rolling lockdowns in China in different cities, when you add up the number of days that we were effectively shut down cumulatively and if you look at all the cities combined, 106 days, we had people -- UPSers sleeping on the floor of our hubs to try to keep commerce moving.

凱特和她的團隊在這方面做得非常出色。明白這一點，因為中國在不同城市的滾動封鎖，當你把我們有效關閉的累計天數加起來，如果你看看所有城市的總和，106 天，我們有人——UPS 人在睡覺我們樞紐的地板，試圖保持商業發展。

Manufacturers couldn't manufacture because they were shutdown. Ocean Freight volume levels were down in the second quarter because of the lockdowns in China. So -- and then we see what's happening with the current variant of COVID. And you just wonder about when will we ever get through it?

製造商因停產而無法生產。由於中國的封鎖，第二季度的海運量水平有所下降。所以——然後我們會看到當前的 COVID 變體發生了什麼。你只是想知道我們什麼時候才能度過難關？

But what you have to do is get through it. You have to manage through it. And that's what we, as a team said we will do. We are going to run our business. We're not going to let the business run us. We're going to get through it, and that's what we're doing.

但是你要做的就是度過難關。你必須通過它來管理。這就是我們，正如一個團隊所說，我們會做的。我們要經營我們的業務。我們不會讓企業經營我們。我們將度過難關，這就是我們正在做的事情。

And Stephen, we have time for one more question.

斯蒂芬，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our last question will come from the line of Brian Ossenbeck of JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

So maybe one more quick one for Brian on fuel. Can you just talk about the management actions on fuel that you've quantified? I think, about 1/3 of the RPP was that and mix. I think where some of the concern is that you might not be able to hang on to that in a weaker fuel price environment? Or are those getting built into these contracts and these renegotiations that you're talking about?

因此，對於布賴恩來說，也許還有一個更快的燃料。您能談談您量化的燃料管理措施嗎？我認為，大約 1/3 的 RPP 是這樣和混合的。我認為有些擔憂是在燃料價格疲軟的環境下您可能無法堅持下去？還是那些被納入這些合同和你正在談論的這些重新談判的人？

And then for Carol, if you can just give us a little more update on the upstream density program. It sounds like another new initiative, but I think the company tried that a few years ago, didn't quite pan out. So maybe what's different this time? What sort of visibility in partnership do you think you can drive to pretty much help everybody in the supply chain, including those who sign up for these pilots?

然後對於 Carol，如果你能給我們更多關於上游密度計劃的最新信息。這聽起來像是另一項新舉措，但我認為該公司幾年前曾嘗試過，但並未成功。那麼這次可能有什麼不同呢？您認為您可以推動什麼樣的合作夥伴關係能夠幫助供應鏈中的每個人，包括那些報名參加這些試點的人？

Yes, Brian, thanks. On the fuel surcharge, look, as Carol mentioned, we run a pass-through on the fuel surcharge on the price per gallon piece, and we've isolated that for you for transparency. That's a very efficient mechanism and we'll move up and down.

是的，布賴恩，謝謝。關於燃油附加費，就像卡羅爾提到的那樣，我們對每加侖價格的燃油附加費進行了傳遞，為了透明起見，我們已經為您隔離了這一點。這是一個非常有效的機制，我們會上下移動。

The pricing actions, we've taken over the last couple of years, we've actually taken 4 or 5 pricing actions. And those we feel are embedded. As Carol said, it's a different type of price. We don't think of it as fuel. It's an element of pricing, and we're embedding some of that in the base rate.

我們在過去幾年採取的定價行動，實際上已經採取了 4 或 5 次定價行動。而我們認為是嵌入的。正如卡羅爾所說，這是一種不同的價格。我們不認為它是燃料。這是定價的一個要素，我們將其中的一部分嵌入到基本費率中。

And I'm just so happy you asked about delivery density. Because we've tried to move the needle in this area for a long time, and we haven't been successful, principally because we've been focused on downstream, improving delivery density through access points or SurePost Redirect. And we just really haven't moved the needle.

我很高興你問到交付密度。因為我們長期以來一直試圖在這個領域有所作為，但我們沒有成功，主要是因為我們一直專注於下游，通過接入點或 SurePost Redirect 提高交付密度。我們只是真的沒有動針。

Yes, the density was the best this quarter since 2019, fractionally. So we're like, "All right, what we're doing isn't working. We've got to go upstream." And when I mean upstream, when you think about e-commerce retailers, their upstream supply chain is from the manufacturer to their warehouse or store. Their upstream supply chain is also their order management system.

是的，本季度的密度是自 2019 年以來最好的。所以我們就像，“好吧，我們正在做的事情不起作用。我們必須逆流而上。”當我指的是上游，當你想到電子商務零售商時，他們的上游供應鍊是從製造商到他們的倉庫或商店。他們的上游供應鏈也是他們的訂單管理系統。

So we have been in a pilot with a third-party technology company that powers order management systems for most of the retailers in the country. The pilot is a virtual hold. We're in the order management system, the third-party technology company is holding the order until it can match another order going to the same address, and then it releases 2 orders. This pilot has been working very well.

因此，我們一直在與一家第三方技術公司進行試點，該公司為該國大多數零售商提供訂單管理系統。飛行員是虛擬的。我們在訂單管理系統中，第三方技術公司一直持有該訂單，直到它可以匹配另一個到同一地址的訂單，然後它發布了2個訂單。這個飛行員一直工作得很好。

Now you may say, well, what about service level agreement to the customer? Well, the virtual hold is only as long as the service level agreement allows. But there's a lot of hours in that service-level agreement, 9 hours, 12 hours. So what we found through the pilot is enough time to be able to match, then we release and we deliver the density.

現在您可能會說，那麼，對客戶的服務水平協議呢？好吧，虛擬保留只在服務級別協議允許的範圍內。但是該服務級別協議中有很多小時，9 小時，12 小時。所以我們通過試點發現有足夠的時間來匹配，然後我們發布並提供密度。

And just to make this real for you, and this is just an estimate, but we estimate the cost of last mile for us is $5.50. That incremental package cost us $0.60. So imagine the value that can be released if we improve the density. So we're going to give some of that value back to our customers.

只是為了讓您真實，這只是一個估計，但我們估計我們最後一英里的成本是 5.50 美元。那個增量包花費了我們 0.60 美元。所以想像一下如果我們提高密度可以釋放的價值。因此，我們將把部分價值回饋給我們的客戶。

Why not? Their service level is not disruptive, and we are going to value share. So the pilot has been so successful. We're going live in the third quarter with the customer. We've got 9 other customers lined up who are anxious to talk to us about this. So more to come, early days, but super excited because it's different from what we've done in the past.

為什麼不？他們的服務水平沒有破壞性，我們將重視份額。所以試點非常成功。我們將在第三季度與客戶一起直播。我們還有其他 9 位客戶排隊等候，他們急於與我們討論這個問題。更多的未來，早期的，但超級興奮，因為它與我們過去所做的不同。

All right. Thank you, everybody, for joining us today and look forward to talking to you all next quarter. That concludes our call.

好的。謝謝大家今天加入我們，期待下個季度與大家交談。我們的電話到此結束。