聯華電子 (UMC) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome, everyone, to UMC's 2020 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) For your information, this conference call is now being broadcasted live over the Internet. Webcast replay will be available within an hour after the conference is finished. Please visit our website, www.umc.com under the Investor Relations, Investors, Events section.

    歡迎大家參加聯電 2020 年第三季度財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)供您參考,此電話會議現在正在互聯網上直播。會議結束後一小時內將提供網絡直播重播。請訪問我們的網站 www.umc.com 的“投資者關係”、“投資者”、“活動”部分。

  • And now I would like to introduce Mr. Michael Lin, Head of Investor Relations at UMC. Mr. Lin, please begin.

    現在我想介紹一下聯華電子投資者關係主管Michael Lin先生。林先生,請開始。

  • Michael Lin - Division Director of Finance

    Michael Lin - Division Director of Finance

  • Thank you, and welcome to the UMC's conference call for the third quarter of 2020. I'm joined by Mr. Jason Wang, President of UMC; and Mr. Chitung Liu, the CFO of UMC.

    謝謝大家,歡迎來到聯華電子 2020 年第三季度電話會議。聯華電子總裁 Jason Wang 先生也加入了我的行列;以及聯電首席財務官劉啟東先生。

  • In a moment, we will hear our CFO present the third quarter financial results, followed by our President's key message to address UMC's focus and the fourth quarter 2020 guidance. Once our President and the CFO complete their remarks, there will be a Q&A session.

    稍後,我們將聽到我們的首席財務官介紹第三季度的財務業績,然後是我們的總裁關於解決 UMC 重點和 2020 年第四季度指導的關鍵信息。我們的總裁和首席財務官完成發言後,將進行問答環節。

  • UMC's quarterly financial reports are available at our website, www.umc.com, under the Investors Financial section.

    UMC 的季度財務報告可在我們的網站 www.umc.com 的“投資者財務”部分獲取。

  • During this conference, we may make forward-looking statements based on management's current expectations and beliefs. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risk that may be beyond the company's control. For this risk, please refer to UMC's filing with the SEC in the U.S. and the ROC security authorities.

    在這次會議期間,我們可能會根據管理層當前的預期和信念做出前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響,這些風險和不確定因素可能導致實際結果出現重大差異,包括可能超出公司控制範圍的風險。此風險請參考聯華電子向美國證券交易委員會及中華民國安全機關備案。

  • Now I would like to introduce UMC's CFO, Mr. Chitung Liu, to discuss UMC's third quarter 2020 financial results.

    現在我想介紹聯華電子的首席財務官劉志東先生,討論聯華電子2020年第三季度的財務業績。

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • Thank you, Michael. I would like to go through the third quarter 2020 investor conference presentation material, which can be downloaded from our website.

    謝謝你,邁克爾。我想瀏覽一下 2020 年第三季度投資者會議的演示材料,可以從我們的網站下載。

  • Starting on Page 3. The third quarter of 2020 consolidated revenue was TWD 44.87 billion, with the gross margin at 21.8%. The net income attributable to the stockholder of the parent was TWD 9.11 billion, and the earnings per ordinary shares were TWD 0.75.

    從第3頁開始。2020年第三季度綜合收入為新台幣448.7億元,毛利率為21.8%。歸屬於母公司股東淨利潤91.1億新台幣,普通股每股收益0.75新台幣。

  • On Page 4, the income statement quarter-over-quarter comparison. Revenue grew 1.1% sequentially to TWD 44.87 billion based on the combination of shipment increase as well as ASP increase. However, the strengthened NT dollars offset more softer gains from shipment increase as well as ASP increase.

    在第 4 頁,損益表與上一季度的比較。收入環比增長 1.1% 至 448.7 億新台幣,這主要歸功於出貨量增長和平均售價的增長。然而,新台幣走強抵消了出貨量增加和平均售價增加帶來的更多疲軟收益。

  • Gross margin, as a result of the stronger NT as well as the higher summer utility costs, declined 4.8% quarter-over-quarter to TWD 9.77 billion or 21.8% gross margin.

    由於新台幣走強以及夏季公用事業成本上漲,毛利率環比下降 4.8% 至 97.7 億新台幣或 21.8% 的毛利率。

  • Operating expenses stayed relatively flat to last quarter. However, this is -- 2 factors affect the operating expenses. The positive one comes from, we have a reversal of expected credit loss. We collect the payables from one of our customers, which is around TWD 500 million also. But at the same time, given that we have to retain our talents and by issuing certain equity-based compensations to the key employees and the management, so the compensation cost is also increased by around $400 million plus. And the collect of expected credit is a one-quarter event. However, the increased compensation based upon equity-based scheme is going to linger in for multiple quarters.

    營業費用與上一季度持平。然而,這是 - 影響運營費用的兩個因素。積極的是,我們有預期信用損失的逆轉。我們向一位客戶收取應付款項,也約為新台幣 5 億。但與此同時,考慮到我們要留住人才,並通過向關鍵員工和管理層發放一定的股權薪酬,因此薪酬成本也增加了約 4 億多美元。預期信用的收集是一個四分之一的事件。然而,基於股權計劃的薪酬增加將持續多個季度。

  • For the net other operating income and expenses, also, we see 2 one-off factors, You can see that most of our net other income expenses, the quarter is roughly about TWD 1 billion. But in the third quarter, it went up to TWD 2.8 billion. Based upon one is the once a year annual interest expense subsidies in our Xiamen fab, that's around TWD 500 million plus.

    對於淨其他營業收入和支出,我們也看到了 2 個一次性因素,您可以看到我們的大部分淨其他收入支出,本季度大致約為 10 億新台幣。但在第三季度,它上升到新台幣 28 億元。以我們廈門廠每年一次的利息支出補貼,大概是新台幣5億多。

  • Also we sold NexPower, one of our solar subsidiaries, the factory we sold with a profit around TWD 1 billion in the third quarter. So that's the main reason we saw the net nonoperating income jumped to TWD 2.8 billion in the third quarter.

    我們還出售了我們太陽能子公司之一的 NexPower,我們出售的工廠在第三季度的利潤約為新台幣 10 億新台幣。這就是我們看到第三季度淨非營業收入躍升至 28 億新台幣的主要原因。

  • Operating income as a result increased to $7.1 billion or 15.9% after operating margins.

    結果,營業收入增至 71 億美元,扣除營業利潤率後增幅為 15.9%。

  • For the net nonoperating income expenses, please refer to our page report -- quarterly report on Page 4. It's actually quite clear that in the third quarter of 2020, we booked a net investment gain of around TWD 3.9 billion because of a strong financial market.

    對於淨營業外收入支出,請參閱我們的頁面報告——第 4 頁的季度報告。實際上很明顯,由於金融市場強勁,我們在 2020 年第三季度錄得約新台幣 39 億元的淨投資收益.

  • Also we also recognized the $60 million fine we settled with US DoJ, which is already reflected in our third quarter nonoperating income numbers. So that's the Page 4.

    此外,我們還認識到我們與美國司法部達成和解的 6000 萬美元罰款,這已經反映在我們第三季度的非營業收入數據中。這就是第 4 頁。

  • So on Page 5, for the first 9 months of the year, revenue grew 23.7% to TWD 131.5 billion, as our newly acquired Japanese fab contributed around 10% of the 23.7%, and the rest is really the organic growth from UMC's higher utilization rate as well as better product mix.

    因此在第 5 頁上,今年前 9 個月的收入增長 23.7% 至新台幣 1,315 億,因為我們新收購的日本晶圓廠貢獻了 23.7% 的約 10%,其餘的實際上是聯電更高利用率的有機增長率以及更好的產品組合。

  • Gross margin, as a result, jumped to 21.4% for the first 3 quarters of the year to TWD 28.1 billion.

    結果,今年前三個季度的毛利率躍升至 21.4%,達到新台幣 281 億元。

  • Operating expenses, because of the combination of our 12M in Japan, so the overall operating expenses is getting higher. And the net operating income, as I explained earlier, the main difference is really the sale of our solar subsidiary, NexPower, of about TWD 1 billion.

    運營費用,因為我們日本12M的組合,所以整體的運營費用越來越高。正如我之前解釋的那樣,淨營業收入的主要區別實際上是我們太陽能子公司 NexPower 的銷售額約為 10 億新台幣。

  • So operating income grew almost 5x to TWD 16.3 billion or 12.5% gross margin -- operating gross margin, and the net income attributable to the stockholder of the parent is around TWD 18 billion. And EPS for the first 3 quarter of 2020 is TWD 1.5, which is 3x of the same period of last year.

    因此,營業收入增長近 5 倍,達到 163 億新台幣或 12.5% 的毛利率——營業毛利率,歸屬於母公司股東的淨收入約為 180 億新台幣。 2020年前三季度每股收益為1.5新台幣,是去年同期的3倍。

  • So for Page 6, our cash level remained around TWD 100 billion also, with total equity around TWD 220 billion.

    因此,對於第 6 頁,我們的現金水平也保持在 1000 億新台幣左右,總股本約為 2200 億新台幣。

  • On Page 7, ASP edged up slightly in the third quarter, and we will give guidance later for Q4 ASP outlook.

    在第 7 頁上,第三季度平均售價小幅上漲,我們稍後將對第四季度平均售價前景給出指導。

  • On Page 8, Asia now is 57% of the total revenue breakdown, and Japan because of certain customer lost some high-end business declined from 9% to 7%.

    在第 8 頁上,亞洲現在佔總收入的 57%,而日本因為某些客戶失去了一些高端業務,從 9% 下降到 7%。

  • On Page 9, we see some up and downs among our IDM customers. And therefore, they offset each other and remain at 12% as total pie around -- in the third quarter of 2020.

    在第 9 頁,我們看到了 IDM 客戶的一些起伏。因此,它們相互抵消,並在 2020 年第三季度保持在總餡餅的 12% 左右。

  • For segment breakdown on Page 10, communication now is around 54% and computer and consumer remained somewhat unchanged.

    對於第 10 頁的細分市場,通信現在約為 54%,計算機和消費者保持不變。

  • On Page 11, we can see that 28-nanometer continued to grow from 13% last quarter to 14% this quarter, and we expect the trend will definitely continue into Q4. And 65-nanometer is strong with 19% of the breakdown. And 90-nanometer is weaker, came down to 10% in the third quarter of 2020.

    在第11頁,我們可以看到28納米從上一季度的13%繼續增長到本季度的14%,我們預計這一趨勢肯定會持續到第四季度。 65 納米很強,擊穿率為 19%。而 90 納米較弱,在 2020 年第三季度下降到 10%。

  • On Page 12, this is the quarterly capacity table. We do expect to see more capacity coming on stream for our 12X in Xiamen.

    在第 12 頁,這是季度容量表。我們確實希望看到我們在廈門的 12X 有更多產能投產。

  • And the last page on 13 -- Page 13, our CapEx for year 2020, the run rate, and most of the goal will remain around $1 billion unchanged.

    第 13 頁的最後一頁——第 13 頁,我們 2020 年的資本支出、運行率和大部分目標將保持在 10 億美元左右不變。

  • And that's a summary for the whole UMC results for third quarter of 2020. More details are available in the report, which can be done -- which has been posted on our website.

    這是聯華電子 2020 年第三季度整體業績的摘要。報告中提供了更多詳細信息,這是可以做到的——已發佈在我們的網站上。

  • I will now turn the call over to President of UMC, Mr. Jason Wang.

    我現在將把電話轉給聯華電子總裁 Jason Wang 先生。

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Thank you, Chitung. Good evening, everyone. Here, I would like to update the third quarter operating result of UMC.

    謝謝你,啟東。各位晚上好。在這裡,我想更新一下聯華電子第三季度的經營業績。

  • During the third quarter, consolidated operating margin reached 15.9%, while utilization rate remained at 97%. Wafer shipments reached TWD 2.25 million, 8-inch equivalent wafers.

    第三季度,綜合營業利潤率達到 15.9%,而利用率保持在 97%。晶圓出貨量達225萬新台幣,8吋等效晶圓。

  • During Q3, work from home and home schooling trends continue to contribute to stable end market demand for application in wireless connectivity, power management IC used in smartphone as well as high-speed interface IO controllers found in the computing device.

    在第三季度,在家工作和在家上學的趨勢繼續促進終端市場對無線連接應用、智能手機中使用的電源管理 IC 以及計算設備中的高速接口 IO 控制器應用的穩定需求。

  • In addition to demand stability across various end markets, our 28-nanometer revenue grew quarter-over-quarter as customer product tape-outs continue throughout the quarter. Moving forward, we expect to see a sustained increase in the number of 28-nanometer tape-out, which will further diversify our 28-nanometer exposure to end markets and customers.

    除了各個終端市場的需求穩定之外,我們的 28 納米收入環比增長,因為整個季度客戶產品流片仍在繼續。展望未來,我們預計 28 納米流片的數量將持續增加,這將進一步分散我們對終端市場和客戶的 28 納米曝光。

  • Looking into the fourth quarter, demand from consumer and computer-related applications will lead to a minor increase in wafer shipments, propelled by ongoing work-from-home initiatives and home schooling. Furthermore, we have seen an uptick in semiconductor demand due to more silicon content, in particular applications such newly adopted -- deployed 5G smartphones, IoT devices and other consumer products. Therefore, current industry landscape appears to show favorable supply and demand dynamics towards foundry. Hence, UMC will pursue a delicate balance in strengthening our customer relationship, while securing interest for our shareholders to ensure our long-term growth.

    展望第四季度,在持續的在家工作計劃和家庭教育的推動下,來自消費者和計算機相關應用的需求將導致晶圓出貨量小幅增長。此外,由於矽含量增加,我們看到半導體需求上升,特別是新採用的應用——部署的 5G 智能手機、物聯網設備和其他消費產品。因此,當前的行業格局似乎顯示出對代工有利的供需動態。因此,聯華電子將在加強客戶關係和確保股東利益的同時尋求微妙的平衡,以確保我們的長期增長。

  • Let's move on to the fourth quarter 2020 guidance. Our wafer shipment will increase by 1% to 2%. ASP in U.S. dollar is expected to increase by 1%, however, surging NT dollars to offset all that benefits on Q4 shipments and ASP growth. Gross profit margin to remain flat, despite adverse currency impact. Capacity utilization rate will be in the mid-90% range. Our 2020 CapEx budget will be USD 1 billion.

    讓我們繼續討論 2020 年第四季度指南。我們的晶圓出貨量將增加 1% 到 2%。以美元計算的平均售價預計將增長 1%,但新台幣的飆升抵消了第四季度出貨量和平均售價增長帶來的所有好處。儘管不利的匯率影響,毛利率仍將持平。產能利用率將在 90% 左右。我們 2020 年的資本支出預算將為 10 億美元。

  • That concludes my comments. Thank you all for your attention. Now we are ready for questions.

    我的評論到此結束。謝謝大家的關注。現在我們準備好提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Randy Abrams, Crédit Suisse.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Randy Abrams。

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Okay. And congratulations on the good result. I wanted to ask the first question, a 2-part on the pricing outlook. If you could give the outlook for ASPs over the next couple of quarters, factoring in the rising foundry pricing on some mature nodes. And also you talked about further 28 ramp up.

    好的。並祝賀你取得了好成績。我想問第一個問題,關於定價前景的兩部分。如果你能給出未來幾個季度 ASP 的前景,考慮到一些成熟節點上不斷上漲的代工價格。而且你還談到了進一步的 28 提升。

  • And then the second part of it is, I think the last line in your remarks were about balancing the strengthening relationships, while also securing shareholder value. So I'm curious, just the risk you're seeing in terms of, if you are lifting pricing versus other foundries seeing a stable pricing model, if any risk on market share or pricing if we do head into a downturn.

    然後是它的第二部分,我認為你發言的最後一行是關於平衡加強關係,同時確保股東價值。所以我很好奇,如果你正在提高定價,而其他看到穩定定價模式的代工廠,如果我們確實陷入低迷,市場份額或定價是否存在任何風險,那麼我很好奇。

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Okay. Sure. First of all, thank you, Randy. And as far as the pricing question, despite -- we mentioned it from last quarter and just earlier that despite the UMC's pricing power, we believe, it has been much improved, especially on the 8-inch business. However, we always try to keep our commitment to our long-term customers. We have been taking advantage of this opportunity to strengthen the customer relationship and enhance the product portfolio pipeline, which will ensure the UMC long-term market position.

    好的。當然。首先,謝謝你,蘭迪。至於定價問題,儘管 - 我們從上個季度和早些時候提到過,儘管 UMC 具有定價能力,但我們相信,它已經有了很大改善,尤其是在 8 英寸業務上。但是,我們始終努力信守對長期客戶的承諾。我們一直在利用這個機會加強客戶關係並增強產品組合管道,這將確保聯電的長期市場地位。

  • And at this time, we have settled the 2020 pricing and allocation with our customer. The outlook for 8-inch business appears still favorable for foundry, but the 12-inch ASP will remain firm based on the normal pricing scheme. The overall blended ASP improvement is still subject to actual product mix.

    而此時,我們已經與客戶確定了 2020 年的定價和分配。 8 英寸業務的前景似乎仍然有利於晶圓代工,但 12 英寸的平均售價將根據正常的定價方案保持堅挺。整體混合 ASP 的改善仍取決於實際產品組合。

  • For the near term, the Q3 and Q4 '20, the pricing adjustment was only applicable to customers that require incremental capacity support, so that will probably give you a favor of the near-term Q3, Q4 as well as some of sort of the outlook for 2020, '21.

    就近期而言,即 20 年第三季度和第四季度,定價調整僅適用於需要增量容量支持的客戶,因此這可能會讓您對近期的第三季度、第四季度以及某種2020 年展望,'21。

  • You talked about the -- you mentioned the effect on the 28-nanometer contributions. In Q3, the higher 28-nanometer ASP contribution was mainly offset by the changing in the product mix. We actually see some benefit -- I mean, the benefit of the product mix on 28, but it still got offset by some other product mix. An example is the decline in our 90-nanometer product, which were designed into a high-end market. That led the ASP was not as apparent, even with some of the improvement on 28 revenue contribution. So for -- that's for the pricing answer.

    你談到了——你提到了對 28 納米貢獻的影響。在第三季度,較高的 28 納米 ASP 貢獻主要被產品組合的變化所抵消。我們實際上看到了一些好處——我的意思是,28 日產品組合的好處,但它仍然被其他一些產品組合所抵消。一個例子是我們設計用於高端市場的 90 納米產品的下滑。這導致 ASP 沒有那麼明顯,即使 28 的收入貢獻有所改善。所以 - 這是定價答案。

  • The -- when we talked about the -- try to seeking the balance between the shareholder interest as well as the long-term customer relationship strength and the customer relation, we're mainly talking about that as we -- going into this few quarter as well as with the outlook for 2021. We continue seeing the business outlook remains pretty firm as we expect the business traction will continue into the 2021. So the overall business outlook, that is healthy, so that means the utilization situation will remain very full.

    - 當我們談到 - 試圖在股東利益以及長期客戶關係強度和客戶關係之間尋求平衡時,我們主要是在談論這個 - 進入這幾個季度以及 2021 年的前景。我們繼續看到業務前景仍然相當堅定,因為我們預計業務牽引力將持續到 2021 年。因此,整體業務前景是健康的,這意味著利用率情況將保持非常充分.

  • And in that sense, we carefully evaluate our CapEx position and consider whether how should we expanding our capacity in supporting customers. But in the same time, we need to watch the balance for the shareholder interest. So that's what we're referring to there.

    從這個意義上說,我們仔細評估了我們的資本支出狀況,並考慮我們是否應該如何擴大我們支持客戶的能力。但與此同時,我們需要注意股東利益的平衡。這就是我們在這裡所指的。

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Okay. Appreciate the color. Maybe a couple of follow-ups to that. First, for the pricing where you mentioned this year, it's only on the incremental business. If there's a way to get a feel on how it's looking at this stage for the pricing for next year.

    好的。欣賞顏色。也許對此有一些後續行動。第一,對於你今年提到的定價,它只是在增量業務上。如果有辦法了解它在現階段如何看待明年的定價。

  • And the second part of that would be on gross margins, just on your view that you'll be near full capacity, good pricing, 28 rising and also maybe depreciation down, how you feel the gross margin may be trending.

    第二部分是關於毛利率,只是你認為你將接近滿負荷,價格合理,28 美元上漲,也可能貶值,你覺得毛利率可能是如何趨勢的。

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Well, first of all, when we look at the gross margin, we were a bit of disappointed for Q3 because the Q3 was largely affected by the appreciation of NT dollars, right? So the NT dollar -- the foreign exchange rate definitely had some impact to our gross margin, and we will be expecting will continue trending up.

    好吧,首先,當我們看毛利率時,我們對第三季度有點失望,因為第三季度主要受到新台幣升值的影響,對吧?所以新台幣——外匯匯率肯定對我們的毛利率產生了一些影響,我們預計會繼續呈上升趨勢。

  • Now despite the NT dollar impact, it's our expectation and goal to continue to see the gross margin trend going up, okay? And following the better product mix and also the continuous -- the utilization -- high utilization.

    現在儘管有新台幣的影響,我們的預期和目標是繼續看到毛利率趨勢上升,好嗎?並遵循更好的產品組合以及持續的 - 利用率 - 高利用率。

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Okay. And then if I can ask a question, then you caught off a 90 node, where, I think, down a good bit from where it was a year ago. So that pocket, I'd assume, is the one with underutilization. Is there kind of a new application to backfill or with capacity tight, you can migrate some of the tools to other nodes?

    好的。然後,如果我可以問一個問題,那麼你會遇到一個 90 節點,我認為,它比一年前的水平下降了很多。所以那個口袋,我想,是未被充分利用的那個。是否有一種新的應用程序可以回填或容量緊張,您可以將一些工具遷移到其他節點?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Okay. The major reason for the 90 nanometer, the decline or impact was due to a decrease in wafer demand from our Japan region. In particular, this impact affects our 12M, the Japan fab. And as -- one of the important customer is experiencing some deteriorating business conditions, which beginning in Q3.

    好的。 90納米的下降或影響的主要原因是由於我們日本地區的晶圓需求減少。特別是,這種影響影響了我們的日本工廠 12M。並且作為 - 重要客戶之一正在經歷從第三季度開始的一些不斷惡化的業務條件。

  • You asked whether we'd be able to backfill with other devices, and we already started. We kicked off the -- we started the mitigation program and the -- this quarter and the expected 12M loading will gradually improve. We can't really improve immediately because we have to bring product over and we have to make some modification to it, so the loading will gradually improve each quarter.

    你問我們是否能夠用其他設備回填,我們已經開始了。我們啟動了 - 我們啟動了緩解計劃 - 本季度預期的 12M 負載將逐漸改善。我們不能真的馬上改進,因為我們必須把產品帶過來,我們必須對它做一些修改,所以每個季度加載會逐漸提高。

  • In Q4 2020, the next quarter, the 12M loading will be the trough of UMC has begun to leverage our other customer base. And so we expect the duration of this recovery mode will probably less around 3 quarters coming from current quarter. So we should start seeing some sign of recovery from Q1 and continue recovering that to a much normal level.

    2020年Q4,也就是下個季度,12M的加載量將是聯電已經開始撬動我們其他客戶群的低谷。因此,我們預計這種恢復模式的持續時間可能會比本季度減少 3 個季度左右。因此,我們應該開始看到一些從第一季度開始復甦的跡象,並繼續將其恢復到非常正常的水平。

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Okay. And just one other follow-up because you mentioned the CapEx, you're doing a consideration now that you're full. Should we view base case? It's been around $1 billion that, that's the level we're looking at when you're expanding or potential at high utilization could start to advance. And how are you thinking about like a build versus buy on some of the mature nodes where capacity is tighter?

    好的。還有另一個後續行動,因為你提到了資本支出,你現在已經滿員了,所以你正在考慮。我們應該查看基本案例嗎?大約 10 億美元,這就是我們在擴張或高利用率潛力可能開始提升時所看到的水平。您如何考慮在容量更緊張的一些成熟節點上構建還是購買?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Both are important. Both are options to us. The -- for the CapEx decision, we are constantly discussing that in (inaudible), but since we're going into the Q4 2020, we're going to quickly finalizing our 2021 CapEx plan. So the 2021 CapEx will be disclosed during the next quarter conference call.

    兩者都很重要。兩者都是我們的選擇。關於資本支出的決定,我們一直在(聽不清)進行討論,但由於我們即將進入 2020 年第四季度,我們將迅速完成我們的 2021 年資本支出計劃。因此,2021 年的資本支出將在下一季度的電話會議上披露。

  • And just a note, each of our CapEx investment will still examined carefully through our -- the stringent ROE justification. So as we promise our shareholders as our internal policy, so we will continue managing under that principle.

    請注意,我們的每項資本支出投資仍將通過我們嚴格的 ROE 理由進行仔細檢查。因此,正如我們向股東承諾作為我們的內部政策一樣,我們將繼續按照該原則進行管理。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question is coming from Gokul Hariharan of JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

  • Yes. And congrats on the good results. First question I had is how should we think about margins, especially gross margins over the next year or so. Obviously, as Chitung had pointed out in the past calls, 2022, we are expecting a meaningful drop-off in depreciation.

    是的。並祝賀取得了好成績。我的第一個問題是我們應該如何考慮利潤率,尤其是未來一年左右的毛利率。顯然,正如 Chitung 在過去的電話會議中指出的那樣,到 2022 年,我們預計貶值將出現有意義的下降。

  • But between now and then, given that we are already running at about 95% to 97% utilization, should we think that gross margin is likely to stay in this early 20% level and then we kind of get to meaningful drop-off in depreciation and improvement in gross margin in 2022? That was my first question.

    但從現在到那時,鑑於我們的利用率已經達到約 95% 至 97%,我們是否應該認為毛利率可能會保持在 20% 的早期水平,然後我們會出現有意義的折舊下降以及 2022 年毛利率的改善?這是我的第一個問題。

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • Okay. I think it's difficult for us to predict the gross margin rate. But as Jason just pointed out earlier, it is certain, our goal continue to find opportunities and optimal process to enhance our gross margin. And of course, we are heading -- we have some headwinds from the currency for this quarter and also likely next quarter, so that kind of eat up about at least 1.5% to 2% of our gross margin. So currency certainly play a quite important role in the near term.

    好的。我認為我們很難預測毛利率。但正如傑森剛才指出的那樣,可以肯定的是,我們的目標是繼續尋找機會和最佳流程來提高我們的毛利率。當然,我們正在前進——我們在本季度和下個季度都面臨來自貨幣的一些不利因素,所以這至少會影響我們毛利率的 1.5% 到 2%。因此,貨幣在短期內肯定會發揮相當重要的作用。

  • And longer term, we do expect to see better ASP coming from our product mix enhancement, also our 28-nanometer ramp. So we do see quite a few factors will help our overall gross margins. And certainly, it is our goal, but just we cannot really predict what's that number for our gross margin for the longer term.

    從長遠來看,我們確實希望看到更好的 ASP 來自我們的產品組合增強,以及我們的 28 納米斜坡。所以我們確實看到很多因素將有助於我們的整體毛利率。當然,這是我們的目標,但我們無法真正預測長期毛利率的數字是多少。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

  • Understood. If we think about going into next year, given the very tight capacity that you're seeing in -- especially in mature nodes, do you plan to go down the acquisition route again on some of these mature nodes? What is the thinking regarding capacity expansion? I think you talked about some selective expansion in 28-nanometer, but could you talk a little bit about what are your plans on the mature node side as well?

    明白了。如果我們考慮進入明年,鑑於您看到的容量非常緊張——尤其是在成熟節點中,您是否計劃在其中一些成熟節點上再次走下收購路線?擴容的思路是什麼?我想你談到了 28 納米的一些選擇性擴展,但你能談談你在成熟節點方面的計劃嗎?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Well, I mean, we also touched that earlier. We continue exploring both options, both organically and inorganically. The -- so the answer is yes, we are always open to exploring new opportunity that will help the company growth, okay, on both ways. So if a viable business is made, we will do both, okay?

    好吧,我的意思是,我們之前也談到了這一點。我們繼續探索有機和無機這兩種選擇。 - 所以答案是肯定的,我們總是樂於探索新的機會,這將有助於公司在兩個方面的發展。所以,如果一項可行的業務成立了,我們將兩者兼顧,好嗎?

  • We think that this year's CapEx, we are putting additional capacity in our 12X, the Xiamen facility. We are maxing up to a 25,000 per month run rate. And we have a -- we feel comfortable about that capacity, and we have confidence that we will have good momentum to build that fab.

    我們認為今年的資本支出,我們將在廈門工廠的 12X 中增加產能。我們每月的運行率最高可達 25,000。我們有一個 - 我們對這種能力感到滿意,並且我們有信心我們將有良好的勢頭來建造該工廠。

  • And so the outlook remained pretty firm to us at this point. And at the same time, we'll continue exploring others. And for that additional capacity are mainly for the 28-nanometer product.

    因此,在這一點上,我們的前景仍然非常堅定。同時,我們將繼續探索其他人。而新增產能主要用於28納米產品。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. One last question on OpEx. How should we think about OpEx? I think OpEx ratio has been coming down in the last year or so, but in terms of OpEx and R&D expenses, are we basically going to stay at around these levels over the next couple of years? Or are there some increases for some of your specialty products in 28-nanometer expansion?

    好的。明白了。關於 OpEx 的最後一個問題。我們應該如何看待 OpEx?我認為 OpEx 比率在過去一年左右一直在下降,但就 OpEx 和研發費用而言,我們是否會在未來幾年基本上保持在這些水平附近?還是你們的一些特色產品在28納米擴展上有一些提升?

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • Yes. Other than the one-off impact in the third quarter of 2020, which I mentioned, one is the reversal of expected credit loss. So there was a gain of around $500 million. But at the same time, we also increased our equity-based compensation schemes to our employees. So there also increased our OpEx by another $400 plus. That's going to last for multiple quarters.

    是的。除了我提到的 2020 年第三季度的一次性影響外,一個是預期信用損失的逆轉。因此,有大約 5 億美元的收益。但與此同時,我們還增加了對員工的股權補償計劃。因此,我們的運營支出也增加了 400 美元以上。這將持續多個季度。

  • So in absolute dollar term, we expect the OpEx to increase starting from Q4 of 2020. But of course, for the longer term, as a percentage of revenue, we hope, it is our goal and duty to keep the ratio somewhat flat or even come down slightly.

    因此,以絕對美元計算,我們預計 OpEx 從 2020 年第四季度開始增加。但是,當然,從長期來看,作為收入的百分比,我們希望保持該比率持平甚至是我們的目標和責任稍微下來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question is coming from Bruce of Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的布魯斯。

  • Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

    Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

  • So I want to ask more about the 28. So what is the current utilization rate for 28-nanometer in third quarter and the fourth quarter?

    所以我想多問一下28的問題。那麼目前28納米第三季度和第四季度的利用率是多少?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • The -- let me take look at this. The 28-nanometer right now is the mid -- about mid- 90s for the quarter, and we expect the 28-nanometer loading will actually continue to increase quarter-over-quarter.

    讓我看看這個。現在的 28 納米是中期 - 大約是本季度的 90 年代中期,我們預計 28 納米負載實際上將繼續環比增長。

  • Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

    Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

  • So 28-nanometers is already a 90-plus percent utilization rate.

    所以 28 納米已經是 90% 以上的利用率。

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Yes. In the Q4 '20, our current projection is at mid-90s. Yes, it's over 90% utilization rate.

    是的。在 20 世紀第四季度,我們目前的預測是在 90 年代中期。是的,它的利用率超過 90%。

  • Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

    Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

  • What was it in third quarter?

    第三季度是什麼?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Third quarter is also over 90%, but it's not reaching the mid-90% yet.

    第三季度也超過了 90%,但還沒有達到 90% 的中期。

  • Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

    Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

  • I see. So given the high utilization rates, so what is the capacity expansion plan for the 28-nanometer because since we already that very, very high utilization already?

    我懂了。那麼鑑於高利用率,那麼 28 納米的產能擴展計劃是什麼,因為我們已經非常非常高的利用率了?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • The capacity will be -- in the 28 will increase in -- starting from Q2 2021, and the number will reach about by end of 2021, we'll probably see about 42,000. From the end of the Q4 2020 is 34,000. So there is approximately 8,000 increase on year-to-year basis. And the number will start ramping in Q2 of '21.

    從 2021 年第二季度開始,容量將增加 28 個,到 2021 年底這個數字將達到大約 42,000 個。從 2020 年第四季度末開始為 34,000。因此,同比增長約 8,000。這個數字將在 21 年第二季度開始增加。

  • Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

    Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

  • I see. Okay. Because of the CapEx, I just saw that you only spent about like $500 million year-to-date, so we didn't really see the spike in terms of CapEx compared to last year. And given the high utilization rate, so I'm just surprised that we did not see a more aggressive CapEx or capacity expansion plan for the 28.

    我懂了。好的。由於資本支出,我剛剛看到你今年迄今為止只花了大約 5 億美元,所以我們並沒有真正看到與去年相比資本支出的飆升。鑑於利用率很高,所以我很驚訝我們沒有看到 28 的更積極的資本支出或產能擴張計劃。

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Well, I mean, we have been leveraging what's in the existing pool, and we've been cautiously deploy our CapEx plan. And following today's Board resolution, I think you will see announcement that, along with today's CapEx approval, the number is actually going up quite a bit today.

    好吧,我的意思是,我們一直在利用現有池中的資源,並且我們一直在謹慎部署我們的資本支出計劃。在今天的董事會決議之後,我想你會看到公告,連同今天的資本支出批准,今天這個數字實際上上升了很多。

  • Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

    Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

  • I see. Understood. So another question is for the gross margin. So what is the ForEx impact for the gross margin in third quarter? And what would be the gross margin guidance, assuming the same ForEx? I mean, I just want to know what is the real gross margin improvement, excluding the ForEx factors.

    我懂了。明白了。所以另一個問題是毛利率。那麼 ForEx 對第三季度毛利率的影響是什麼?假設相同的 ForEx,毛利率指導是多少?我的意思是,我只想知道真正的毛利率提高是多少,不包括外匯因素。

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • So back to our Q4 guidance, we are guiding 1% to 2% shipment growth and 1% ASP growth, but that's all going to be wiped out by ForEx. So that's the magnitude of the ForEx impact for gross margin in Q4. For the magnitude in the third quarter, it's a little bit less than that of Q4.

    所以回到我們的第四季度指導,我們指導 1% 到 2% 的出貨量增長和 1% 的平均售價增長,但這一切都將被 ForEx 抹去。這就是 ForEx 對第四季度毛利率的影響程度。三季度的幅度,比四季度要小一些。

  • Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

    Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

  • A little bit less than what's the impact in third quarter. Is that right?

    比第三季度的影響要小一點。那正確嗎?

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • A little less than that in Q4.

    比第四季度略少。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is coming from Szeho Ng of China Renaissance.

    您的下一個問題來自華興資本的 Szeho Ng。

  • Szeho Ng - MD

    Szeho Ng - MD

  • My first question is regarding the noncontrolling stake. In Q3, the number has actually come down quite a bit. I just want to know if it's one-off or any specific reason for the drop.

    我的第一個問題是關於非控股股權。在第三季度,這個數字實際上下降了很多。我只想知道它是一次性的還是有任何具體原因導致掉線。

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • You mean, noncontrolling interest.

    你的意思是,非控制性利益。

  • Szeho Ng - MD

    Szeho Ng - MD

  • Right, the minority interest.

    對,少數人的利益。

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • Yes, that's because the key operation is our Xiamen fab, and their loss in the third quarter is much less because of the one-off annual -- once a year interest expenses subsidies received for the third quarter.

    是的,那是因為關鍵業務是我們的廈門晶圓廠,他們第三季度的虧損要少得多,因為第三季度每年收到一次性的利息支出補貼。

  • Szeho Ng - MD

    Szeho Ng - MD

  • Okay. Got you. And is the interest subsidy would continue for next couple of years in Q3 every year?

    好的。明白了每年第三季度的利息補貼是否會持續未來幾年?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Either Q2 or Q3, it will continue for a couple of years. But the debt outstanding should gradually come down as we gradually pay off the debt.

    無論是第二季度還是第三季度,它都會持續幾年。但是隨著我們逐漸還清債務,未償債務應該會逐漸減少。

  • Szeho Ng - MD

    Szeho Ng - MD

  • Okay, okay. And second question, back to the gross margin. Is it possible to talk about the gross margin difference between 8-inch and 12-inch? And I believe that 12-inch gross margin will be lower, right?

    好吧好吧。第二個問題,回到毛利率。能不能說說8寸和12寸的毛利率差異?而且我相信12英寸的毛利率會更低,對吧?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Yes, we don't really show that kind of breakdown. And -- but as you can imagine, the overall depreciation unit cost for 8-inch is much lower than that of 12-inch. So accounting margin-wise is 12-inch based upon a full loading condition. Right now, it's certainly higher than that of 12-inch.

    是的,我們並沒有真正表現出那種崩潰。而且 - 但正如您可以想像的那樣,8 英寸的整體折舊單位成本遠低於 12 英寸。因此,基於滿載條件,會計餘量為 12 英寸。現在肯定比12寸高。

  • Szeho Ng - MD

    Szeho Ng - MD

  • Okay, okay. Yes. And last question on R&D, how should we model the figures going forward? Should it be quite steady from absolute dollar level?

    好吧好吧。是的。關於研發的最後一個問題,我們應該如何為未來的數字建模?從絕對美元水平來看,它應該相當穩定嗎?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Sorry. Say that again.

    對不起。再說一次。

  • Szeho Ng - MD

    Szeho Ng - MD

  • The R&D, how should we model it going forward? Is it going to be kind of stable on absolute dollar basis?

    研發,我們應該如何對其進行建模?它會在絕對美元基礎上保持穩定嗎?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • We believe it will remain stable for the foreseeable future.

    我們相信它在可預見的未來將保持穩定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And next, we'll have Charlie Chan of Morgan Stanley for questions.

    接下來,我們將請摩根士丹利的 Charlie Chan 提問。

  • Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

  • And congratulations for great results. So I've got a couple of questions. First of all, it's more about the short term because there seems to be some trends. Some customers who want to transfer the project to your foundry given concern about the SMIC continuity. So does the management also see the similar behavior from customers? And how long do you think they can sustain?

    祝賀你取得了很好的成績。所以我有幾個問題。首先,它更多是關於短期的,因為似乎有一些趨勢。一些客戶考慮到中芯國際的連續性,希望將項目轉移到您的代工廠。那麼管理層是否也看到了客戶的類似行為?你認為他們能維持多久?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • So -- well, first of all, it's our policy that we are not commenting our competitors. And as far as the question you're referring to, it's more of a geopolitical tensions that it's our belief that did have some impact to the foundry landscape, particular to the customer sourcing strategy, right? And we have observed some of the customers have decided to diversify their foundry sourcing strategy and started some of the business explorations, maybe not only with UMC, but the -- -- at least, activities being associated with that. In due course, we will try to capture those opportunity if we could. And as long as it will be subject to our capacity availability as well as our customer alignment based on their wafer requirements.

    所以 - 首先,我們的政策是我們不評論我們的競爭對手。至於你提到的問題,更多的是地緣政治緊張局勢,我們相信這確實對代工格局產生了一些影響,特別是對客戶採購戰略,對吧?而且我們觀察到一些客戶已經決定多樣化他們的代工採購策略並開始一些業務探索,可能不僅與 UMC 合作,而且 - 至少與此相關的活動。在適當的時候,我們將盡可能抓住這些機會。並且只要它取決於我們的產能可用性以及我們的客戶根據他們的晶圓要求進行調整。

  • So the current priority of ours at this time is still serving our existing customers first because you know we are running very full. And it's our job to supporting our current customer and strengthen that partnerships. And -- but continue enhancing our market position based on available technology and capacity is also our goal. So -- but our priority is serving our existing customer first.

    所以我們目前的首要任務仍然是首先為我們現有的客戶服務,因為你知道我們已經滿員了。支持我們當前的客戶並加強這種夥伴關係是我們的工作。並且 - 但基於現有技術和能力繼續提高我們的市場地位也是我們的目標。所以 - 但我們的首要任務是首先為我們現有的客戶服務。

  • Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

  • Yes. Okay. Yes. And also related to this, right, I know your fab is very busy, and I understand that your pricing for 2020 is already set, except for some rush orders or incremental demand. But when you have kind of a new startover for the 2021 business discussion, do you plan to kind of revise up your wafer price to all the customers? So there's no discrimination just that because the -- it's all about demand and supply, and you want to kind of hike the price to all your customers in 2021.

    是的。好的。是的。也跟這個有關,對吧,我知道你們工廠很忙,我知道你們2020年的定價已經定下來了,除了一些急單或者增量需求。但是,當您對 2021 年的業務討論有了新的開始時,您是否打算向所有客戶提高您的晶圓價格?所以沒有歧視,因為 - 這完全取決於需求和供應,你想在 2021 年提高所有客戶的價格。

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Well, the -- yes, I mean, we -- I mentioned earlier, we are seeing -- we have -- the landscape has changed it. And we -- particularly in 8-inch advanced node area, so the answer is yes. The -- for the 8-inch business, we are settling those 2021 pricing now, and there is a baseline adjustment. Okay. Yes, there is. And the -- but we're still limiting at the 8-inch business.

    嗯,是的,我的意思是,我們 - 我之前提到過,我們正在看到 - 我們已經 - 景觀已經改變了它。而我們——尤其是在 8 英寸高級節點領域,所以答案是肯定的。 -- 對於 8 英寸業務,我們現在正在確定 2021 年的定價,並且有一個基線調整。好的。就在這裡。而且 - 但我們仍然限制在 8 英寸業務。

  • The 12-inch ASP will remain firm based on a normal pricing scheme. So yes. So we haven't making any adjustment from a 12-inch standpoint, but mainly on the 8-inch side.

    基於正常定價方案,12 英寸 ASP 將保持堅挺。所以是的。所以我們沒有從12英寸的角度做任何調整,主要是在8英寸這邊。

  • Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

  • Okay. Sorry, I missed that. So can you quantify the magnitude of the baseline pricing change for 8-inch?

    好的。對不起,我錯過了。那麼您能否量化 8 英寸基準價格變化的幅度?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Well, the message here is because the -- we always look at from a blended ASP standpoint, so It's very hard to quantify that. Even we quantified that, it's not -- it can't imply what's the end result.

    好吧,這裡的信息是因為——我們總是從混合 ASP 的角度來看,所以很難對其進行量化。即使我們對此進行了量化,它也不是——它不能暗示最終結果是什麼。

  • The overall blended ASP improvement was still subject to the actual product mix based on the loading. For example, if we have better 8-inch productivity improvement, that means if we're shipping higher percentage of 8-inch wafer, the 12-inch is still up, despite the baseline 8-inch pricing increases, we're still going to drive down the overall blended ASP.

    總體混合 ASP 改進仍取決於基於負載的實際產品組合。例如,如果我們有更好的 8 英寸生產率改進,這意味著如果我們出貨更高百分比的 8 英寸晶圓,12 英寸仍然在上升,儘管基線 8 英寸價格上漲,我們仍在繼續壓低整體混合平均售價。

  • So it's difficult for us to quantify that. It's better to referring to on the quarter-to-quarter guidance because we will provide the ASP guidance on a quarter-to-quarter basis, yes.

    所以我們很難對其進行量化。最好參考季度指南,因為我們將按季度提供 ASP 指南,是的。

  • Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

  • Okay. And lastly, I think it's really a good move that you placed and settled with the U.S. Department of Justice. So can I confirm this is already settled and there's no longer compensation expense afterwards? And also between you and the Micron, do you think there is also a lawsuit to settle? Or do you think it's also already complete, along with this U.S. DoJ settlements?

    好的。最後,我認為你與美國司法部達成和解確實是一個很好的舉措。那我能不能確認這件事已經解決了,之後就不再有補償費用了?還有你和美光之間,你覺得還有官司要解決嗎?還是您認為它也已經完成,連同美國司法部的和解?

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • The criminal case with DoJ is settled and the $60 million fine is reflected in the third quarter financial statements. And for the civil case with Micron, that's still ongoing. And we don't speculate the result, but we will try our very best to defend our shareholder -- our company's right and shareholders' rights.

    與司法部的刑事案件已經解決,6000 萬美元的罰款反映在第三季度的財務報表中。對於美光的民事案件,這仍在進行中。我們不猜測結果,但我們會盡最大努力捍衛我們的股東——我們公司的權利和股東的權利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question is coming from Roland Shu, Citigroup.

    下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

  • Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

    Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

  • Yes. Congrats for the very good result. And my first question is for the 28-nanometer. So I look at your 28-nanometer, I believe, in 3Q, your capacity for 28-nanometer should be much bigger than your capacity in 4Q '16, which was the peak of your 28-nanometer revenue.

    是的。祝賀你取得了很好的成績。我的第一個問題是關於 28 納米的。所以我看看你的 28 納米,我相信,在第三季度,你的 28 納米產能應該比你在 16 年第四季度的產能大得多,這是你 28 納米收入的峰值。

  • And also you comment in 3Q, you loaded your 28-nanometer capacity at above 90% utilization. So I think the 28-nanometer wafer shipment in 3Q this year should be much bigger than 4Q 2016. However, I look at the revenue point of view. In 3Q, your 28-nanometer revenue probably was only 83% of same period in 4Q '15. So is this the more wafer shipment? However, with this much lower wafer revenue coming from the product mix change, and can you give us more color on what exactly have changed in the product mix on 28-nanometer?

    而且您在第三季度評論說,您以超過 90% 的利用率加載了 28 納米容量。所以我覺得今年3Q的28納米晶圓出貨量應該比2016年4Q多很多。不過我是從營收的角度來看。在第 3 季度,您的 28 納米收入可能僅為 15 年第 4 季度同期的 83%。那麼這是更多的晶圓出貨量嗎?然而,由於產品組合變化帶來的晶圓收入要低得多,您能否給我們更多關於 28 納米產品組合究竟發生了什麼變化的顏色?

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • First of all, 5 years is a very long time for pricing trend in the foundry business. So if we compare it to all the electronics products 5 years ago, I think it will be very, very different. So it's not only foundry. We just don't compare this kind of issues with a 5-year interval. And certainly, the product are also different compared to 5 years ago. So I think it's a difficult way to even try to compare to 2015.

    首先,對於代工行業的定價趨勢而言,5 年是一個非常長的時間。所以如果我們將它與 5 年前的所有電子產品進行比較,我認為它會非常非常不同。所以它不僅僅是鑄造廠。我們只是不將此類問題與 5 年間隔進行比較。當然,與 5 年前相比,產品也有所不同。所以我認為這是一種很難與 2015 年進行比較的方法。

  • I think all we're trying to do here is to fully utilize 28-nanometer capacity and moving to high end as much as we can, and we also diversify different clientele for our 28-nanometer. And we are moving our 28 to 22 as well to increase -- enhance the competitiveness for both ourselves and our customers.

    我認為我們在這裡要做的就是充分利用 28 納米的產能,盡可能地向高端發展,我們也為我們的 28 納米分散不同的客戶群。我們也將 28 人轉移到 22 人,以增加——增強我們自己和客戶的競爭力。

  • So we're pretty happy with the progress we made for 28, and it has been within our plan. And for the next coming quarter, we do expect the 28% -- 28-nanometer as a percentage of revenue to show a meaningful increase quarter-over-quarter.

    所以我們對我們為 28 取得的進展感到非常高興,這也在我們的計劃之內。對於下一個季度,我們確實預計 28% - 28 納米佔收入的百分比將顯示出環比有意義的增長。

  • Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

    Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

  • Okay. And then you said that end of this year, the 28 capacity will be reached at 34,000 wafer per month, and this actually is above the economic scale for 28-nanometer. So are you expecting your 28-nanometer gross margin to reach corporate average in 3Q or in 4Q, any time soon?

    好的。然後你說今年底28的產能會達到34000片/月,這實際上已經超過了28納米的經濟規模。那麼您是否預計您的 28 納米毛利率會在 3 季度或 4 季度達到公司平均水平,很快?

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • Again, we don't really have a detailed breakdown by geometries. But yes, when the 28 was running at nearly 95% capacity utilization rate, we do see a similar corporate gross margin compared to the rest of the 12-inch node. But we also are expanding. We are putting new CapEx in our Xiamen fab, moving from 18,000 wafers right now to 25,000 by mid of 2021. All the newly increased CapEx and also depreciation will certainly put pressures on the gross margin for our Xiamen fab.

    同樣,我們實際上並沒有按幾何形狀進行詳細分類。但是,是的,當 28 以接近 95% 的產能利用率運行時,我們確實看到與 12 英寸節點的其餘部分相比相似的企業毛利率。但我們也在擴張。我們正在廈門工廠投入新的資本支出,到 2021 年年中從現在的 18,000 片晶圓增加到 25,000 片。所有新增加的資本支出和折舊肯定會給我們廈門工廠的毛利率帶來壓力。

  • So our Xiamen fab, even though we have seen performance being improved compared to year 2019 by a good margin, still, they are in red in terms of margins. So overall, if you plan with the new CapEx and new depreciation, 12-inch -- 28-nanometer is not going to be at corporate average because of the Xiamen fab.

    因此,我們的廈門工廠,儘管我們看到與 2019 年相比,業績有了很大提高,但它們的利潤率仍然是紅色的。所以總的來說,如果你計劃新的資本支出和新的折舊,12 英寸 - 28 納米不會因為廈門工廠而達到企業平均水平。

  • Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

    Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

  • Understood. My last question is for your lawsuit settlement. You -- I think that in 3 months ago, before you believe there was no round 2 from UMC for this case. But now you admit there is 1 trade secret breach. So can you elaborate for the change you are putting? Why previously you thought later there was not round 2, but now you think there is one trade secret breach?

    明白了。我的最後一個問題是關於您的訴訟和解。你——我想是在 3 個月前,在你相信 UMC 沒有針對這個案例進行第 2 輪之前。但現在你承認有 1 次商業秘密洩露。那麼你能詳細說明你所做的改變嗎?為什麼以前你認為後來沒有第二輪,但現在你認為有一個商業秘密洩露?

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • It's very clearly stated in our news release that under U.S. laws, company has to be responsible for employee behavior. And the employee did break the law by -- he violated the company policy and also performed without the knowledge of top management. So that's where the one comes from. That's a different scenario under the Taiwan law.

    我們的新聞稿中非常明確地指出,根據美國法律,公司必須對員工的行為負責。這名員工確實違法了——他違反了公司政策,而且在高層管理人員不知情的情況下進行了工作。這就是那個的來源。根據台灣法律,情況不同。

  • Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

    Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

  • Understood. So this is mainly -- you pay the $60 million mainly for employees's fault or are in place around the win.

    明白了。所以這主要是——你支付 6000 萬美元主要是為了員工的過錯,或者是為了勝利。

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • It's very clearly stated in our news release.

    我們的新聞稿中已經非常清楚地說明了這一點。

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • So it's our position to pleading guilty means UMC recognized and accepting the liability of the action of the certain employees.

    因此,我們認罪的立場意味著聯電承認並接受某些員工行為的責任。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question is coming from Nicolas Baratte, Macquarie.

    下一個問題來自 Macquarie 的 Nicolas Baratte。

  • Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst

    Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst

  • Yes. A boring question somehow for Chitung. So you've explained a lot of detail. The other operating income and expenses, which go in the TWD 2.8 billion, right? On the nonoperating side, you also have a pretty, pretty big number there at $2 billion in 3Q. And sorry, maybe I didn't hear what you said about tax, but you also have a very low tax rate in the third quarter.

    是的。對於 Chitung 來說,這是一個無聊的問題。所以你已經解釋了很多細節。其他的營業收入和支出,在新台幣28億裡面吧?在非運營方面,第三季度也有一個非常非常大的數字,達到 20 億美元。對不起,也許我沒有聽到你說的關於稅收的事情,但你在第三季度的稅率也很低。

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • So for the non -- other operating income with sale of the solar power subsidiary, NexPower, facility for a gain of about TWD 1 billion, so that's included in the TWD 2.8 billion numbers for the other operating income.

    因此,對於非 - 其他營業收入,出售太陽能子公司 NexPower 設施獲得約 10 億新台幣的收益,因此這包括在 28 億新台幣的其他營業收入中。

  • For the nonoperating income, it's mainly the valuation gain from a strong capital market, which UMC recognized about $3.9 billion gain from the financial market -- our capital market gains, but offset by about $60 million fine we paid to DoJ.

    對於非營業收入,主要是來自強大資本市場的估值收益,聯電從金融市場確認了約 39 億美元的收益——我們的資本市場收益,但被我們支付給美國司法部的約 6000 萬美元罰款所抵消。

  • Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst

    Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst

  • So the USD 60 million fine is in nonoperating costs.

    因此,6000 萬美元的罰款屬於非運營成本。

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • Yes, that's right, nonoperating.Yes.

    是的,沒錯,非經營性。是的。

  • Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst

    Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. And the tax rate, Chitung, and what about the tax rate?

    好的。明白了。還有稅率,Chitung,還有稅率呢?

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • Tax rate is a little bit complicated. We do enjoy certain tax break for some of our overseas operations. So blended tax rate is probably less than 5% to 10% this year. And right now, it's actually lower for the third quarter, but grew up for the whole year. I do expect to see about 5% tax rate for 2020, but it will eventually be somewhere between 10% to 15% should the tax break in third quarter that gradually matured.

    稅率有點複雜。我們的一些海外業務確實享有一定的稅收減免。所以今年的混合稅率可能低於5%到10%。而現在,第三季度實際上較低,但全年都在增長。我確實預計 2020 年的稅率約為 5%,但如果第三季度的減稅政策逐漸成熟,最終稅率將在 10% 至 15% 之間。

  • Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst

    Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst

  • Okay. Another 2 questions, if you don't mind. Number one is, what do you expect is the impact of the Japan fab on margins and OpEx for next year? Does it tend to lower margin or increase margin, increase OpEx, lower OpEx? What should we think about here?

    好的。另外2個問題,如果你不介意的話。第一,您預計日本工廠對明年的利潤率和運營支出有何影響?它傾向於降低利潤率還是增加利潤率、增加 OpEx、降低 OpEx?我們應該考慮什麼?

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • Japan fab in terms of impact for OpEx will be stable for the next few quarters.

    日本晶圓廠對運營支出的影響在未來幾個季度將保持穩定。

  • Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst

    Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst

  • In percentage.

    百分比。

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • However, the President just mentioned one of the major customers is having a more deteriorating business outlook for the -- one of the high-end products, so they are in recovery mode right now. So Q4 will be the trough of the loadings. And also their margin will be below corporate average in Q4 and gradually to pick up over the next couple of quarters.

    然而,總統剛剛提到其中一個主要客戶的業務前景更加惡化 - 其中一種高端產品,因此他們目前處於恢復模式。所以第四季度將是負荷的低谷。而且他們的利潤率在第四季度將低於公司平均水平,並在接下來的幾個季度逐漸回升。

  • Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst

    Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst

  • Understood, understood. If you don't mind, the last question about 28-nanometer, so it looks like already is very impressive in the 28-nanometer. Revenue has been increasing, the 28 node revenue in U.S. dollar has been increasing. In the first half of the year, it was 25%. And in 3Q, it's 75% year-on-year, right? And Q-on-Q, it's also a very big increase of 40%, right? So how many new products or new customers or new stuff do you have in 28-nanometer from 3Q '20?

    明白了,明白了。如果你不介意的話,最後一個問題是關於28納米的,所以看起來28納米已經很了不起了。收入一直在增長,28節點美元收入一直在增長。今年上半年,這一比例為25%。而在第三季度,同比增長75%,對吧?還有Q-on-Q,也是非常大的40%的漲幅吧?那麼,從 20 年第三季度開始,您在 28 納米領域有多少新產品、新客戶或新東西?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • There's no specific numbers here. But yes, in Q3, our 28-nanometer, from a revenue standpoint, we are experiencing many new products, right, from wireless application as well as computing-related products. And the -- we see more and more diversification on our product line in the 28-nanometers, and -- which we've got to see, and this momentum actually will continue. It continued into Q4. We foresee the 28-nanometer contribution will continue to grow as we reported earlier as well. So yes, I mean, we don't have a specific product comps, but there are many products ramping starting from Q3 already.

    這裡沒有具體數字。但是,是的,在第三季度,我們的 28 納米,從收入的角度來看,我們正在體驗許多來自無線應用以及計算相關產品的新產品。而且 - 我們看到我們的產品線在 28 納米中越來越多樣化,而且 - 我們必須看到,這種勢頭實際上將繼續下去。它一直持續到第四季度。正如我們之前報導的那樣,我們預計 28 納米的貢獻將繼續增長。所以是的,我的意思是,我們沒有特定的產品組合,但是從第三季度開始已經有很多產品在增加。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question is coming from Sunny Lin, UBS.

    下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Sunny Lin。

  • Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst

  • And congrats on the very good results. So I have 2 questions. Number one is on your 8-inch. Management has been reiterating to focus on improving the technology capability for mature process and, therefore, the product mix. So now that your 8-inch is basically full, and I think you could be a bit more selective, so wondering how would your mix evolve in the next 2 to 3 years.

    並祝賀非常好的結果。所以我有兩個問題。第一個在你的 8 英寸上。管理層一直重申要專注於提高成熟流程的技術能力,從而提高產品組合。所以現在你的 8 英寸基本上已經滿了,我覺得你可以再挑剔一點,所以想知道你的混音在未來 2 到 3 年內會如何演變。

  • And my second question is regarding raw wafers. Well, I think the expectation by the industry is that 2021 should be a better year with end market recovery. and considering that raw wafer has been over -- undersupply in the past, I just wonder, how would you do differently this time around in buying raw wafers? That's all for me.

    我的第二個問題是關於晶圓的。好吧,我認為行業的預期是,隨著終端市場的複蘇,2021 年應該是更好的一年。考慮到原始晶圓已經結束——過去供應不足,我只是想知道,這次你在購買原始晶圓方面會有何不同?這就是我的全部。

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Sure. So in terms of the 8-inch, from the product mix and the mix improvement standpoint, that is continuous efforts. Especially with the 8-inch advanced node area. 8-inch advanced nodes qualify anything under 0.18 micron, and so anything under that will considered to be advanced. And we see many application coming into the 8-inch advanced area, so we -- the product mix improvement effort is continued.

    當然。所以對於8寸來說,從產品結構和組合改進的角度來看,就是不斷的努力。特別是8英寸的高級節點區域。 8 英寸高級節點符合 0.18 微米以下的任何東西,因此任何低於 0.18 微米的東西都將被視為高級。我們看到許多應用進入 8 英寸高級領域,因此我們繼續進行產品組合改進工作。

  • For the -- for anything that's greater than 0.18 has behaved a little different. There are different application coming into that, but I won't consider that actually as a better mix because of many of the mature 8-inch migrating to the advanced 8-inch.

    對於 - 對於大於 0.18 的任何值,其表現都有些不同。有不同的應用程序,但我不會認為這實際上是更好的組合,因為許多成熟的 8 英寸遷移到先進的 8 英寸。

  • So the key focus on the mature 8-inch is twofold. One is we'll try to upgrading our facility so we can convert some of the mature technology capacity into advanced node and to serving the high demand of the advanced 8-inch area.

    因此,成熟的 8 英寸的重點是雙重的。一是我們將嘗試升級我們的設施,以便我們可以將一些成熟的技術能力轉化為先進的節點,並滿足先進 8 英寸領域的高需求。

  • The second is by developing a new technology to adapting the new applications, okay? So from the -- from a mix standpoint, I think the mature side will stay pretty flat and go -- try to continue fully low in the area versus the advanced 8-inch will continue to improve the mix and to also enhance the blended ASP. So that's sort of respond to your 8-inch question.

    第二是通過開發新技術來適應新的應用程序,好嗎?因此,從混合的角度來看,我認為成熟的一面將保持平穩並繼續前進——嘗試在該區域保持完全低位,而先進的 8 英寸將繼續改善混合併提高混合 ASP .這就是對您的 8 英寸問題的回應。

  • For the wafer substrate materials, after the last experience, we have examined our relationship with the -- our suppliers. So now that we have a long-term contract arrangement in place now and -- for the old suppliers, and the -- and we continue the ongoing discussion with those suppliers, at the same time that we try to qualify multiple source on different product lines. So by doing that, we'll actually be able to secure our supply with more competitive solutions. So that is pretty being adapt after the last experience that we have. And we -- so far, we feel comfortable about that, but the result of that, we have to remain to be seen.

    對於晶圓基板材料,在上次經驗之後,我們檢查了我們與供應商的關係。因此,既然我們現在已經制定了長期合同安排,並且 - 對於老供應商,以及 - 我們將繼續與這些供應商進行持續的討論,同時我們嘗試對不同產品的多個來源進行認證線。因此,通過這樣做,我們實際上能夠通過更具競爭力的解決方案來確保我們的供應。因此,在我們擁有上次經驗之後,這非常適合。而我們 - 到目前為止,我們對此感到滿意,但結果,我們必須繼續觀察。

  • Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst

  • Got it. A very quick follow-up. So would it be fair to assume that for 2021, most of your long-term contract should have been finalized and with maybe reasonable pricing?

    知道了。一個非常快速的跟進。那麼假設到 2021 年,您的大部分長期合同應該已經敲定並且定價可能合理,這是否公平?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • I will say so. I think so the -- it still sound -- there are some already settled, and there are some still under negotiation. But yes, I think, the -- it's kind of thing, I said the -- it meets our expectation at this time, yes.

    我會這麼說。我認為 - 聽起來仍然如此 - 有些已經解決,有些仍在談判中。但是,是的,我認為,這有點像,我說過,它符合我們此時的期望,是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question is coming from Sebastian Hou, CLSA.

    下一個問題來自里昂證券的塞巴斯蒂安侯。

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • First Is to follow on the 28-nanometers. So I think Chitung already mentioned about we should expect the 28-nanometers could be -- could drive the margin higher from here. So can you explain further details about what could drive the -- what could drive 28-nanometer's profit higher from here given that it's already running mid-90s -- or 90% plus utilization rate.

    首先是跟進 28 納米。所以我認為 Chitung 已經提到我們應該期待 28 納米可能會 - 可以從這裡提高利潤率。那麼,您能否解釋更多關於什麼可以推動的細節——什麼可以推動 28 納米的利潤從這裡提高,因為它已經運行在 90 年代中期——或者 90% 以上的利用率。

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • Mainly, one is from our Xiamen fab, currently, the rather big loss, and the loss has been reduced year-over-year. And we do expect to see the structured profitability for Xiamen fab to be meaningfully improved after they reached the 25,000 economy of scale operations, which is by the mid of 2021. So that's -- the smaller loss coming from Xiamen will be a way of 28-nanometer margin enhancement. And of course, we will continue to see upgrade from 28 to 22 and also better product mix for 28, and that will also help.

    主要是我們廈門晶圓廠,目前虧損比較大,而且虧損在逐年減少。我們確實預計,到 2021 年年中,廈門晶圓廠的規模經濟達到 25,000 座後,其結構性盈利能力將得到顯著改善。因此,來自廈門的較小損失將達到 28 -納米餘量增強。當然,我們將繼續看到從 28 升級到 22,以及 28 更好的產品組合,這也會有所幫助。

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • Got it. So your Xiamen fab right now is 17,000. Is that right?

    知道了。所以你廈門廠現在是17000。那正確嗎?

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • About 18,000 now already.

    現在已經有大約 18,000 人了。

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • 18,000. So from 18,000 to 25,000 there, you can make a big difference in terms of economy of scale.

    18,000。所以從 18,000 到 25,000,你可以在規模經濟方面產生很大的不同。

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • After we reach 25,000, the full size, we will see potential to see even further cuts in terms of loss.

    在我們達到 25,000 之後,我們將看到進一步減少損失的潛力。

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Second question is on the inventory. I think some of your peers are pretty sanguine about the inventory situation on your customer side, although that has been above average for multiple quarters already. I'm curious about how's your view on the inventory situation on your customers. And how do you see -- what was your view on this everlasting high inventory situation? Is it the new normal?

    好的。偉大的。第二個問題是關於庫存。我認為您的一些同行對您客戶方面的庫存情況非常樂觀,儘管這已經超過多個季度的平均水平。我很好奇您如何看待客戶的庫存情況。你怎麼看——你對這種持續高庫存的情況有何看法?這是新常態嗎?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Well, I mean, first of all, you're right. I mean -- and also from other observation that you say the inventory was at a high level. We are -- what we think we have seen quarter-over-quarter decline in inventory given the end market has started to recover. But the data -- yes, the data did show, the inventory level at this time is still at a higher than the normal level. So despite that, we see some quarters declining, but the current inventory level remains at a higher level.

    嗯,我的意思是,首先,你是對的。我的意思是 - 從其他觀察來看,你說庫存處於高水平。我們是——我們認為,鑑於終端市場已經開始復蘇,我們已經看到庫存環比下降。但數據——是的,數據確實顯示,此時的庫存水平仍處於高於正常水平的水平。因此,儘管如此,我們看到一些季度有所下降,但目前的庫存水平仍處於較高水平。

  • Now whether if this situation is -- will become a new norm, that remains to be seen. We believe it's in a higher level, but we see because the higher content of some of the -- higher silicon content on some of the devices and because of the pandemic situation, whether this high-level inventory can be a new norm. That is a possibility. It's still too early to judge at this time and -- but we will continue monitoring that progress.

    現在,這種情況是否會成為一種新常態,還有待觀察。我們認為它處於更高水平,但我們看到,由於某些設備的某些含量更高 - 某些設備上的矽含量更高,並且由於大流行的情況,這種高水平庫存是否可以成為新常態。這是一種可能。現在判斷還為時過早——但我們將繼續監測這一進展。

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • Okay. One follow on that is given that the capacity is pretty tight right now, it's everywhere, a leading-edge foundry and also trolling edge and everywhere, so when you communicate where -- with your customers, do you see any gap between your customers' order and behavior versus your internal forecast on the demand, i.e., whether there could be some overbooking behavior because your customer just afraid of not getting enough capacity?

    好的。一個後續是考慮到現在產能非常緊張,它無處不在,領先的鑄造廠,也無處不在,所以當你在哪裡 - 與客戶溝通時,你是否看到客戶之間的任何差距?訂單和行為與您對需求的內部預測,即,是否會因為您的客戶只是害怕沒有足夠的容量而出現一些超額預訂行為?

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Yes. I mean, this is the conversation -- this topic is a conversation happening on a daily basis. The interesting thing is if you look at the inventory, it may not be within our customer space. It could be the -- in a certain entire -- it could lay on -- somewhere in the supply chain. It could be at a system level or electronics level, but not necessarily on the silicon level.

    是的。我的意思是,這就是對話——這個話題是每天都在發生的對話。有趣的是,如果您查看庫存,它可能不在我們的客戶空間內。它可能是——在某個整體上——它可能位於——供應鏈的某個地方。它可以在系統級或電子級,但不一定在矽級。

  • So we have been constantly check with our customer and, well, hoping they're checking with their customer. And this type of conversation is ongoing. People are concerned about this, whether there is a double booking situation.

    因此,我們一直在不斷地與我們的客戶核實,希望他們能與他們的客戶核實。這種類型的對話正在進行中。人們關心的是,是否存在重複預訂的情況。

  • But at this point, we -- I would say, people that we've been talking to, as well as ourselves, we -- no one can judge whether this is a new norm or there's going to be an inventory correction coming up soon because it's just -- we have to continue seeing this thing through.

    但在這一點上,我們——我想說的是,我們一直在與之交談的人,以及我們自己——沒有人能判斷這是一種新常態,還是很快就會出現庫存修正因為它只是 - 我們必須繼續看到這件事。

  • Now there are some precaution measures that we can do. Hopefully, we're putting more resource on the area that really are in shortage, and so maybe have a high priority versus the others.

    現在我們可以採取一些預防措施。希望我們在真正短缺的領域投入更多資源,因此可能比其他領域具有更高的優先級。

  • And again, it's delicate process. It's not as straightforward. But I mean, I think not just us, the entire supply chain is finding their best, trying to mitigate this situation here. And we just have to -- we have to sit and see what's going to happen.

    再一次,這是一個微妙的過程。這不是那麼簡單。但我的意思是,我認為不僅僅是我們,整個供應鏈都在盡力而為,試圖緩解這裡的這種情況。我們只需要 - 我們必須坐下來看看會發生什麼。

  • But I mean, right now, I mean, the demand coming out of our customer remains very solid and very strong. And we're doing due diligence. And hopefully, we're just making a good decision here.

    但我的意思是,現在,我的意思是,來自我們客戶的需求仍然非常穩固和強勁。我們正在進行盡職調查。希望我們只是在這裡做出了一個好的決定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And the last question is coming from Bruce of Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員說明)最後一個問題來自高盛的布魯斯。

  • Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

    Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

  • I want to double check my understanding about the gross margin for the ForEx impact. So for the fourth quarter, the ASP is going up by 1% to 2%. Your shipment is 1% to 2%. So the total revenue is like 2% to 3%, but the ForEx eat it off for the gross margin side. So does that mean that gross margin impact is 2% to 3%? Is my understanding correct?

    我想仔細檢查一下我對 ForEx 影響的毛利率的理解。因此,對於第四季度,平均售價將上漲 1% 至 2%。你的貨物是 1% 到 2%。所以總收入大約是 2% 到 3%,但 ForEx 在毛利率方面吃掉了它。那麼這是否意味著毛利率影響為 2% 至 3%?我的理解正確嗎?

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • 2% to 3% on the top line and every 1% increase of NT dollar against U.S. dollar is at about 0.5 percentage point of our gross margin.

    頂線2%至3%,新台幣兌美元每增加1%,我們的毛利率約為0.5個百分點。

  • Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

    Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

  • So that's about 1% to 1.5% gross margin impact in the fourth quarter.

    因此,這對第四季度的毛利率影響約為 1% 至 1.5%。

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • Now you said that.

    現在你說了。

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • And by the way, the ASP increase was quarter at 1%, not 1% to 2%.

    順便說一下,ASP 的季度增長率為 1%,而不是 1% 到 2%。

  • Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

    Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

  • Okay, okay, okay. The final quick follow-up is that for management is saying that the CapEx will consider that the ROE or RICs for the shareholders, which is great for the investors. However, can we have like a longer-term capital intensity guidance such as, for example, like 20%, which is a reasonable target? Can we expect that or our CapEx will maintain at lower than the depreciation, which is around like $1.5 billion a year, something like that?

    好的,好的,好的。最後的快速跟進是,管理層表示資本支出將考慮股東的 ROE 或 RIC,這對投資者來說非常好。然而,我們能否有一個更長期的資本密集度指導,例如 20%,這是一個合理的目標?我們是否可以預期,或者我們的資本支出將保持在低於每年約 15 億美元的折舊水平?

  • Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

    Qi Dong Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary

  • We don't commit something like that. I mean, we really don't see how much money we can afford to spend. We don't look CapEx that way. It's really on what kind of return we can achieve and how much CapEx is needed in order to trigger that kind of project.

    我們不會做出那樣的事情。我的意思是,我們真的看不出我們能花多少錢。我們不這樣看資本支出。這實際上取決於我們可以獲得什麼樣的回報以及需要多少資本支出才能觸發此類項目。

  • And also our President just mentioned, we are looking at opportunities, both organically and inorganically. So it's more complicated for UMC's case compared to the other countries, which probably only relies on mostly on the organic growth.

    而且我們的總統剛剛提到,我們正在尋找有機和無機的機會。因此,與其他國家相比,聯電的情況更為複雜,其他國家可能主要依賴有機增長。

  • So we'll look at the combined basis and to see what kind of capacity expansion is the best solution for our customer as well as to our shareholders.

    因此,我們將著眼於綜合基礎,看看什麼樣的產能擴張對我們的客戶和股東來說是最好的解決方案。

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Maybe I can add a couple here. Three years ago, we actually adopted a strategy that, first -- our first priority is reshaping our financial structure, and so our goal is to try to improve our financial structure first.

    也許我可以在這裡添加一對。三年前,我們實際上採取了一項戰略,首先 - 我們的首要任務是重塑我們的財務結構,因此我們的目標是首先嘗試改善我們的財務結構。

  • And then the second strategy was focused on cost-effective capacity expansion. That is a combination of the made and buy and -- which is what we're doing right now. I think we -- at the level that -- we've gone through the first phase, and we feel comfortable with where we're at right now. And we're looking into the second phase, and the ultimate goal is we try to striking a balance between the shareholder interest as well as the growth of the company.

    然後第二個戰略是專注於具有成本效益的產能擴張。這是製造和購買的結合——這就是我們現在正在做的。我認為我們 - 在那個級別 - 我們已經經歷了第一階段,我們對我們現在所處的位置感到滿意。我們正在研究第二階段,最終目標是我們試圖在股東利益和公司發展之間取得平衡。

  • So your answers are legit and -- but the question is, we are looking on all of this on a holistic view and maybe, at the time that mature, and we'll be able to put you, maybe there is a reference in terms of the CapEx budgets or affordability level.

    所以你的回答是合法的——但問題是,我們正在從一個整體的角度來看待所有這些,也許,在成熟的時候,我們可以讓你,也許在術語方面有參考資本支出預算或承受能力水平。

  • So -- but we're still going through that so-called Phase 1, and we add -- we're reaching probably a late-stage of the Phase 1, and we continue accelerating our second strategy, yes. Hope this helped, too.

    所以——但我們仍在經歷所謂的第一階段,我們補充說——我們可能正處於第一階段的後期階段,我們將繼續加速我們的第二個戰略,是的。希望這也有幫助。

  • Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

    Zheng Lu - Research Analyst

  • Yes, that helps. I think the investor is fully appreciate that the return profile improvement for the last 2, 3 years. I think that one of the major concerns is from an investor, which I got, is that people worry about that UMC might trigger a major massive CapEx for the 28 because if you want to increase your 28 by 10,000 or 20,000 wafer per month, that's by $2 billion, $3 billion. So I mean, that's one-off or one major CapEx hurdle, which is the concern right now. So I want to see whether we have some upper limit or some kind of guidance.

    是的,這有幫助。我認為投資者完全理解過去 2、3 年回報狀況的改善。我認為主要的擔憂之一來自一位投資者,我得到的是,人們擔心 UMC 可能會引發 28 的大規模資本支出,因為如果你想每月增加 28 10,000 或 20,000 片晶圓,那就是增加 20 億美元,30 億美元。所以我的意思是,這是一次性的或一個主要的資本支出障礙,這是目前關注的問題。所以我想看看我們是否有一些上限或某種指導。

  • Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

    Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director

  • Well, at this point, you don't need to worry about that. And I've seen -- we're having pretty good discipline here to try to manage that. So we're going to stay that way. If there's any change, I'll let you know, but not at this point.

    好吧,在這一點上,您不必擔心。而且我已經看到 - 我們在這裡有很好的紀律來嘗試管理它。所以我們將保持這種狀態。如果有任何變化,我會通知您,但不會在此時通知您。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We thank you for all your questions. That concludes today's Q&A session, and I will turn things over to UMC Head of IR for closing remarks.

    我們感謝您提出的所有問題。今天的問答環節到此結束,我將把事情交給 UMC 的 IR 負責人作結束語。

  • Michael Lin - Division Director of Finance

    Michael Lin - Division Director of Finance

  • Thank you for attending this conference today. We appreciate your questions. As always, if you have any additional follow-up questions, please feel free to contact UMC at ir@umc.com. Have a good day. Thank you.

    感謝您參加今天的會議。感謝您提出問題。與往常一樣,如果您有任何其他後續問題,請隨時通過 ir@umc.com 聯繫 UMC。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our conference for third quarter 2020. We thank you for your participation in UMC's conference. There will be a webcast replay within an hour. Please visit www.umc.com under the Investors Events section. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.

    女士們,先生們,我們 2020 年第三季度的會議到此結束。我們感謝您參加 UMC 的會議。一個小時內將進行網絡廣播重播。請訪問投資者活動部分下的 www.umc.com。您現在可以斷開連接。再見。