聯華電子 (UMC) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, everyone, to UMC's 2021 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) For your information, this conference call is now being broadcasted live over the Internet. Webcast replay will be available within an hour after the conference is finished. Please visit our website, www.umc.com, under the Investor Relations, Investors' Events section.

歡迎大家參加聯電 2021 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）供您參考，此電話會議現在正在互聯網上直播。會議結束後一小時內將提供網絡直播重播。請訪問我們的網站 www.umc.com，在“投資者關係”、“投資者活動”部分下。

And now I would like to introduce Mr. Michael Lin, Head of Investor Relations at UMC. And Mr. Lin, please begin.

現在我想介紹一下聯華電子投資者關係主管Michael Lin先生。林先生，請開始。

Thank you, and welcome to the UMC's conference call for the first quarter of 2021. I'm joined by Mr. Jason Wang, the President of UMC; and Mr. Chitung Liu, the CFO of UMC.

謝謝大家，歡迎參加聯華電子 2021 年第一季度的電話會議。聯華電子總裁 Jason Wang 先生也加入了我的行列；以及聯電首席財務官劉啟東先生。

In a moment, we will hear our CFO present the first quarter financial results, followed by our President's key message to address UMC's focus and the second quarter 2021 guidance. Once our President and the CFO complete their remarks, there will be a Q&A section.

稍後，我們將聽到我們的首席財務官介紹第一季度的財務業績，然後是我們的總裁關於解決 UMC 重點和 2021 年第二季度指導的關鍵信息。一旦我們的總裁和首席財務官完成他們的發言，就會有一個問答部分。

UMC's quarterly financial reports are available at our website, www.umc.com, under the Investors' Financial section.

UMC 的季度財務報告可在我們的網站 www.umc.com 的“投資者財務”部分獲取。

During this conference, we may make forward-looking statements based on the management's current expectations and beliefs. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially including the risk that may be beyond the company's control. For these risks, please refer to UMC's filing with the SEC in the U.S. and the ROC securities authorities.

在本次會議期間，我們可能會根據管理層目前的預期和信念做出前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響，這些風險和不確定因素可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，包括可能超出公司控制範圍的風險。有關這些風險，請參閱聯電向美國證券交易委員會和中華民國證券監管機構提交的文件。

Now I would like to introduce UMC's CFO, Mr. Chitung Liu, to discuss UMC's first quarter 2021 financial results.

現在我想介紹聯華電子的首席財務官劉志東先生，討論聯華電子2021年第一季度的財務業績。

Thank you, Michael. I would like to go through the first quarter '21 investor conference presentation material, which can be downloaded from our website.

謝謝你，邁克爾。我想瀏覽一下 21 年第一季度投資者會議的演示材料，可以從我們的網站下載。

Starting on Page 3. The first quarter of 2021 consolidated revenue was TWD 47.1 billion, with gross margin at 26.5%. The net income attributable to the stockholder of the parent was TWD 10.43 billion, and the earnings per ordinary shares were TWD 0.85. In the first quarter, the capacity utilization rate was 100%, a further improvement from 99% in the previous quarter.

從第 3 頁開始。2021 年第一季度合併收入為新台幣 471 億元，毛利率為 26.5%。歸屬於母公司股東的淨利潤為104.3億新台幣，普通股每股收益為0.85新台幣。一季度，產能利用率為100%，較上一季度的99%進一步提升。

And please go to Page 4. For sequential comparison, Q1 revenue of TWD 47.1 billion represents about 4% quarter-over-quarter growth, which contributed both from ASP increase of 3%-plus as well as wafer shipment, which is also 3%-plus. And it was somewhat offseted by the stronger NT dollars. Gross profit margin continued to grow to 26.5% or TWD 12.5 billion. And operating income margin rate in first quarter was 16.2%, increased by 35.7% sequentially. So the net income as reported was around TWD 0.85 per -- for -- per ADS is about USD 0.149.

請轉到第 4 頁。對於連續比較，第一季度收入為 471 億新台幣，環比增長約 4%，這得益於 ASP 增長 3% 以上以及晶圓出貨量也為 3% -加。而這在一定程度上被新台幣走強所抵消。毛利率繼續增長至 26.5% 或新台幣 125 億元。第一季度營業利潤率為 16.2%，環比增長 35.7%。因此，報告的淨收入約為每份 ADS 0.85 新台幣，即每份 ADS 約為 0.149 美元。

So on year-over-year comparison on Page 5. Revenue grow by 11.4% despite the stronger -- much stronger NT dollar exchange rate. Gross margin improved by nearly 7% gross point -- percentage point to 26.5% compared to 19.2% the same period of last year. And gross margin -- operating margin improved to 16.2% from 8.1% in first quarter of 2020. So EPS will show a pretty significant growth from TWD 0.19 in Q1 2020 to TWD 0.85 to -- this past quarter.

因此，在第 5 頁的同比比較中。儘管新台幣匯率走強，但收入增長了 11.4%。毛利率提高了近 7% 個百分點至 26.5%，而去年同期為 19.2%。毛利率——營業利潤率從 2020 年第一季度的 8.1% 提高到 16.2%。因此，每股收益將從 2020 年第一季度的 0.19 新台幣顯著增長到上個季度的 0.85 新台幣。

On Page 6. Our cash is around TWD 107 billion, and the total equity is about close to TWD 250 billion. Like I mentioned earlier, the Q1 earning -- revenue growth contributing both from ASP growth as well as wafer shipment growth.

在第6頁。我們的現金約為1070億新台幣，總股本約為2500億新台幣。就像我之前提到的，第一季度的收益——收入增長來自 ASP 增長和晶圓出貨量增長。

And on Page 7, you can see there's more than 3% uptick in our blended ASP for first quarter of 2021.

在第 7 頁上，您可以看到我們 2021 年第一季度的混合平均售價上漲了 3% 以上。

In terms of revenue breakdown on Page 8. Asia continued to grow. And right now, it represents about 63% of our total revenue. And Europe and Japan also show minor growth in first quarter of '21.

在第 8 頁的收入明細方面。亞洲繼續增長。現在，它約占我們總收入的 63%。歐洲和日本在 21 世紀第一季度也出現小幅增長。

For Page 9, IDM, still unchanged, around 14%.

對於第 9 頁，IDM，仍然保持不變，約為 14%。

And on Page 10, we see some more balanced distribution among 3 major segments. So Consumer now represents about 27% and Communication is about 46%.

在第 10 頁上，我們看到 3 個主要部分之間的分佈更加均衡。因此，消費者現在約佔 27%，通信約佔 46%。

And for Page 11, 28/22-nanometer technology represent about 20% of our total price in Q1 2021, and the 40-nanometer represents another 20% for Q1 '21.

對於第 11 頁，28/22 納米技術約占我們 2021 年第一季度總價格的 20%，而 40 納米技術佔 21 年第一季度的另外 20%。

On Page 12, our capacity breakdown for quarter 2, we will see some 4% quarter-over-quarter capacity growth, mainly coming from 12-inch capacity expansion at both 12A as well as 12X in Xiamen.

在第 12 頁，我們對第二季度的產能細分，我們將看到約 4% 的季度產能增長，主要來自廈門 12A 和 12X 的 12 英寸產能擴張。

And on Page 13, we revised up our annual CapEx budget, mainly due to a new project in Tainan, which we will go into details later. For the new updated CapEx for '21 is now USD 2.3 billion.

在第 13 頁，我們上調了年度資本支出預算，主要是由於台南的一個新項目，我們將在稍後詳細介紹。對於 21 年新更新的資本支出，現在為 23 億美元。

So the above is a summary of UMC results for Q1 2021. More details are available in the report, which has been posted on our website.

以上是聯華電子 2021 年第一季度業績的摘要。更多詳細信息請參閱已發佈在我們網站上的報告。

I will now turn the call over to President of UMC, Mr. Jason Wang.

我現在將把電話轉給聯華電子總裁 Jason Wang 先生。

Thank you, Chitung. Good evening, everyone. Here, I would like to update the first quarter operating result of UMC.

謝謝你，啟東。各位晚上好。在這裡，我想更新一下聯華電子第一季度的經營業績。

Amid the semiconductor component shortage, we are working with our customers, suppliers and partners to alleviate the capacity tightness across the supply chain.

在半導體元件短缺的情況下，我們正在與我們的客戶、供應商和合作夥伴合作，以緩解整個供應鏈的產能緊張。

In Q1, robust wafer demand led to a full utilization in our manufacturing side, bringing overall wafer shipments to 2.37 million 8-inch equivalents. For the quarter, our gross profit grew 15.2% quarter-over-quarter to TWD 12.49 billion, which partly reflected higher contribution from our 28-nanometer technology.

第一季度，強勁的晶圓需求導致我們在製造方面得到充分利用，使整體晶圓出貨量達到 237 萬片 8 英寸當量。本季度，我們的毛利環比增長 15.2% 至新台幣 124.9 億元，這部分反映了我們 28 納米技術的貢獻增加。

During the first quarter, we continued to see an increase in 28-nanometer wafer shipments, driven by strong wafer demand associated with digital TV, set-top box and connectivity chips designed into smartphones. As a result, 28-nanometer revenue grew 18% quarter-over-quarter, representing 20% of our wafer business. Furthermore, we have started to ship 22-nanometer products to fulfill consumer demand, leading to a recognition of 22-nanometer wafer revenue in first quarter '21.

在第一季度，我們繼續看到 28 納米晶圓出貨量的增長，這是受數字電視、機頂盒和智能手機連接芯片相關的強勁晶圓需求的推動。因此，28 納米收入環比增長 18%，占我們晶圓業務的 20%。此外，我們已經開始出貨 22 納米產品以滿足消費者需求，從而在 21 年第一季度確認了 22 納米晶圓的收入。

We foresee a significant pickup in 22-nanometer product tape out that will increase our 22/28-nanometer product pipeline, optimize overall product mix and enhance UMC foundry share.

我們預計 22 納米產品的流片將顯著增加，這將增加我們的 22/28 納米產品線，優化整體產品組合併提高 UMC 代工份額。

Looking into the second quarter, market demand will continue to outpace supply, which will lift wafer shipments and blended ASP in U.S. dollars. Recent market dynamics have provided us and our customers an opportunity to reinforce our CapEx strategy within ROI boundary, while trying to alleviate the long-term capacity constraint in the supply chain. Therefore, our Board of Directors have approved an investment plan, which will expand the capacity at UMC Fab 12A P6 in Taiwan Tainan Science Park through an innovative win-win partnership model with several leading global customers.

展望第二季度，市場需求將繼續超過供應，這將提升以美元計算的晶圓出貨量和混合平均售價。最近的市場動態為我們和我們的客戶提供了一個機會，可以在投資回報率範圍內加強我們的資本支出戰略，同時努力緩解供應鏈中的長期產能限制。因此，我們的董事會批准了一項投資計劃，該計劃將通過與多家全球領先客戶的創新雙贏合作模式，擴大台灣台南科學園區聯華電子 Fab 12A P6 的產能。

The P6 expansion is scheduled for production in the second quarter of 2023, with total investment for the project earmarked at TWD 100 billion. In addition to UMC's previously announced 2021 CapEx of USD 1.5 billion, the bulk of which is allocated towards equipment for the company's Fab 12A P5 sites, adjacent to P6, total UMC investment in the Tainan Science Park will reach approximately TWD 150 billion over the next 3 years. The P6 program is supported by a multiyear's product alignment between UMC and the involved customers that includes a loading protection mechanism that will ensure the P6 capacity is maintained at a healthy loading level.

P6擴建計劃於2023年第二季投產，項目總投資達1000億新台幣。除了聯電先前宣布的 2021 年資本支出 15 億美元（其中大部分用於公司與 P6 相鄰的 Fab 12A P5 場地的設備）外，聯電在台南科學園區的總投資將在未來達到約 1500 億新台幣3年。 P6 計劃得到 UMC 與相關客戶之間多年產品一致性的支持，其中包括負載保護機制，可確保 P6 容量保持在健康的負載水平。

We look forward to leveraging our #1 worldwide foundry market position in multiple areas, such as 28-nanometer OLED driver IC production, so we may further strengthen UMC semiconductor industry relevance and capture new market opportunities down the road.

我們期待利用我們在多個領域（例如 28 納米 OLED 驅動器 IC 生產）的全球第一代工市場地位，進一步加強聯電半導體行業的相關性，並在未來抓住新的市場機會。

Now let's move on to the second quarter 2021 guidance. Our wafer shipments will increase by 2%. ASP in U.S. dollar will increase by 3% to 4%. However, the surging NT dollar headwind may potentially offset benefits on Q2 shipments increase in ASP growth. Gross profit margin will challenge 30%. Capacity utilization will be at 100%. Our 2021 cash-based CapEx will be budgeted at USD 2.3 billion, as Chitung mentioned earlier.

現在讓我們繼續討論 2021 年第二季度的指南。我們的晶圓出貨量將增加 2%。以美元計算的平均售價將增加 3% 至 4%。然而，新台幣飆升的逆風可能會抵消第二季度出貨量增加對平均售價增長的好處。毛利率將挑戰30%。產能利用率將達到 100%。正如 Chitung 之前提到的，我們 2021 年基於現金的資本支出預算為 23 億美元。

That conclude my comments. Thank you all for your attention. Now we are ready for question.

我的評論到此結束。謝謝大家的關注。現在我們準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Randy Abrams, Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Randy Abrams。

Okay. Congratulations on the results and margin improvement. First question, I wanted to ask on the capacity expansion. Could you discuss the amount of capacity for the Fab 12A Phase 5 with the CapEx raise? And also, how much capacity is planned for Phase 6 with the TWD 100 billion plan? And if there's a framework for total CapEx, if you also expect any spending to continue in China or other facilities, if there's a view the current year spend may continue around this level for the next couple of years?

好的。祝賀結果和利潤率的提高。第一個問題，我想問一下關於擴容的問題。您能否討論 Fab 12A Phase 5 的產能與資本支出的增加？還有，千億計劃的六期計劃有多少產能？如果有總資本支出的框架，如果您還預計中國或其他設施的任何支出會繼續，是否認為今年的支出可能會在未來幾年繼續保持在這個水平附近？

So Randy, for P6 alone, the total CapEx is around TWD 100 billion. And it's likely -- the spending is likely to spread out through -- over the next 3 years. So starting from later part of this year, bulk of that in 2022 and also nearly 1/3 in the 2023. So that will be the key part of our CapEx over the next 3 years. And for the original budget of USD 1.5 billion, the bulk of that will go to the 10,000 wafer 28-nanometer capacity per month at P5. And that's already ongoing. And we are seeing the contribution earlier, maybe as early as next year.

所以蘭迪，僅 P6 一項，總資本支出約為新台幣 1000 億。在接下來的 3 年裡，支出很可能會分散開來。因此，從今年下半年開始，2022 年佔大部分，2023 年佔近 1/3。這將是我們未來 3 年資本支出的關鍵部分。對於 15 億美元的原始預算，其中大部分將用於 P5 每月 10,000 片晶圓 28 納米產能。這已經在進行中。我們正在更早地看到貢獻，可能最早在明年。

As for Xiamen, we are also already reaching to the target -- closing to the target level of 25,000 wafer per month. And as you recall, it was about 17,000, 18,000 wafer by -- about the same time last year. But through the expansion, now it's close to the full capacity right now. So maybe, Jason, you want to add a few more?

至於廈門，我們也已經接近目標——接近每月25,000片晶圓的目標水平。正如你所記得的那樣，大約是 17,000、18,000 晶圓——大約與去年同期相同。但是通過擴建，現在已經接近滿負荷了。那麼也許，傑森，你想再添加幾個？

I think the other data point is for the Tainan facility, after the P5, will be about 90,000 wafer capacity total for the Tainan site, the 12A. And by adding the P6, we'll be on top of the 90,000. So we are approaching about 120,000.

我認為另一個數據點是台南工廠，在 P5 之後，台南工廠 12A 的晶圓總產能約為 90,000 片。通過添加 P6，我們將超過 90,000。所以我們正在接近大約 120,000。

Okay, over 10,000 xP5.

好的，超過 10,000 xP5。

Right.

正確的。

Okay. So -- and to clarify, it's 90,000, so you have 10,000, P5; P6 is 20,000. So that brings it to 120,000. Okay.

好的。所以 - 澄清一下，它是 90,000，所以你有 10,000，P5； P6 是 20,000。這樣就達到了 120,000。好的。

And the second question, it gets back to the mechanism and this new expansion schedule. If you could talk on how the pricing and margins as you expand and grow the business with the new capacity. How would that impact relative to your current margins where they're getting about 30%? And if you could give an updated view that the depreciation was originally on that kind of nice downtrend in the next 2 years, but now you'll get more growth. But how does the depreciation profile change?

第二個問題，回到機制和這個新的擴展計劃。如果你能談談在你用新產能擴展和發展業務時定價和利潤率如何。相對於他們目前獲得的大約 30% 的利潤率，這將如何影響？如果你能給出一個更新的觀點，即貶值最初是在未來 2 年的那種不錯的下降趨勢中，但現在你會得到更多的增長。但折舊情況如何變化？

Well, I mean the -- without going to specifics about the actual pricing, I can update. The first is our disciplined ROI-driven strategy did not change. So this program would not affect that strategy. Starting in 2023, this program will support our topline growth, like you said, with multiple years of margin accretion. So this financially, we believe, is justifiable.

好吧，我的意思是 - 無需詳細說明實際定價，我可以更新。首先是我們紀律嚴明的投資回報率驅動戰略沒有改變。所以這個程序不會影響那個策略。從 2023 年開始，正如您所說，該計劃將支持我們的收入增長，並實現多年的利潤增長。因此，我們認為，這在財務上是合理的。

As we stated earlier in the P6 press release, this P6 expansion will run at second quarter 2023. And in the meantime, the near-term downward depreciation trend remains unchanged. Even post 2023, UMC total depreciation as a percentage of revenue will be well controlled and managed. Mainly because after a few years our light CapEx depreciation rolled off together with our gross margin improvement, this effort will have strengthened our financial position to capture this market opportunity. So I think our customers also recognize part of the market structure changes. So they foresee this arrangement is meaningful to them, but also beneficial to them. Yes.

正如我們早些時候在 P6 新聞稿中所述，此次 P6 擴張將在 2023 年第二季度進行。與此同時，近期的貶值趨勢保持不變。即使在 2023 年後，UMC 的總折舊佔收入的百分比也將得到很好的控制和管理。主要是因為幾年後我們的資本支出輕微貶值隨著毛利率的提高而下降，這一努力將加強我們的財務狀況以抓住這個市場機會。所以我認為我們的客戶也認識到部分市場結構的變化。所以他們預見到這種安排對他們來說是有意義的，也是對他們有利的。是的。

Okay. And one last question. The blended pricing at start of the year was, I think, kind of a minimum plus 5%. If there's an updated view, with ASP up 3% to 4% in the second quarter, but also there's a lot of talk in the market there's further rounds with the capacity tightness. If you could give a view on pricing? And is there an initial view how 2022 if you're already contracting out and may see some movement up on pricing into next year?

好的。最後一個問題。我認為，今年年初的混合定價至少增加了 5%。如果有更新的觀點，第二季度平均售價上漲 3% 至 4%，但市場上也有很多關於產能緊張的討論。如果你能對定價發表看法？如果您已經外包並且明年的定價可能會有所上漲，是否有初步的看法，到 2022 年如何？

We will continue aligning with our customers. From the recent market dynamics, our forecast for the full year ASP growth will be in the high single digit year-over-year now. And it could approach 10%. And the 10% of the pricing will also include our product mix improvement. And -- therefore, the current ASP lift mainly reflect the value of overall market position, but is more aligned to the market price and market position. So we see -- at this point we see the entire 2021, we'll be approaching about 10% year-over-year growth on ASP.

我們將繼續與客戶保持一致。從最近的市場動態來看，我們對全年平均售價同比增長的預測現在將處於高個位數。它可能接近 10%。而這 10% 的定價還將包括我們的產品組合改進。並且 - 因此，當前的平均售價提升主要反映了整體市場地位的價值，但更符合市場價格和市場地位。所以我們看到——此時我們看到整個 2021 年，我們的 ASP 將接近 10% 的同比增長。

Okay. And is there any talk on 2022 yet? Or is that normally as scheduled, like -- or in second half? But are you starting early given the constraints?

好的。還有關於 2022 年的談話嗎？還是通常如期進行，比如——還是在下半場？但是，考慮到這些限制，你會早點開始嗎？

There are ongoing discussions, as I said earlier. We -- hopefully, we can wrap up not only just the pricing, also capacity support alignment early -- before mid of the year. And so that is still ongoing at this point.

正如我之前所說，目前正在進行討論。我們 - 希望我們不僅可以在今年年中之前完成定價，還可以儘早完成容量支持調整。因此，目前仍在進行中。

And the next question is coming from Bruce Lu, Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Bruce Lu。

Can you give us a little bit more color about your innovative business model for the new fab? Because -- I don't need any details. But the problem from the investor is when TSMC, who dominated in 28-nanometers global capacity, the Chairman is talking about double booking and oversupply in 28, and we are building additional 28-nanometer capacity. How can we ensure that the capacity, the newly added capacity is fully loaded? What kind of mechanism we can have? Or -- because we have seen so many long-term contracts in many, many industry and a lot of customers just don't honor the contract at the end of the day. So how can we ensure that we can get our desired return?

您能否為我們介紹一下新晶圓廠的創新商業模式？因為——我不需要任何細節。但投資者的問題是，台積電在28納米全球產能中占主導地位，董事長說28的雙重預訂和供應過剩，而我們正在建設額外的28納米產能。怎麼保證容量，新增容量滿載？我們可以有什麼樣的機制？或者——因為我們在許多行業中看到瞭如此多的長期合同，而且很多客戶在一天結束時根本不履行合同。那麼怎樣才能保證能夠得到我們想要的回報呢？

That's actually a very good question. And it can be a short answer and long answer. Let me see if I can maybe start off giving a bit of a background of this decision. The recent market dynamics lead to a supply-demand imbalance, as everyone knows, particularly in the mature node. Some of our peers in the market also mentioned about that, too. In the past few years, we have seen most of capacity expansion focused on advanced technology. However, the company did not significantly address the mature 12-inch and 8-inch capacity over a period of time due to a challenging market condition.

這實際上是一個非常好的問題。而且可以是簡答也可以是長答。讓我看看我是否可以開始介紹一下這個決定的背景。眾所周知，最近的市場動態導致供需失衡，尤其是在成熟節點。我們市場上的一些同行也提到了這一點。在過去的幾年裡，我們看到大部分產能擴張都集中在先進技術上。然而，由於市場環境充滿挑戰，該公司在一段時間內並未顯著解決成熟的 12 英寸和 8 英寸產能問題。

Within those mature 12- and 8-inch nodes, there are many critical components that play the vital roles in the semi supply chain. Therefore, we believe this event have structurally changed our role and position as a foundry service provider. And I think our customers recognize that. And so at this time, this situation stopped providing us and our customer an opportunity to work closely. And we have to solve the supply shortage together in these mature node. So the behavior of this -- toward this agreement with the customer, is it different than just putting a track expert?

在那些成熟的 12 英寸和 8 英寸節點中，有許多關鍵組件在半導體供應鏈中發揮著至關重要的作用。因此，我們認為這次活動從結構上改變了我們作為代工服務提供商的角色和地位。我認為我們的客戶認識到這一點。所以在這個時候，這種情況不再為我們和我們的客戶提供密切合作的機會。而我們要在這些成熟的節點上共同解決供給不足的問題。那麼這種行為——為了與客戶達成協議，這與僅僅安排一名賽道專家有什麼不同嗎？

And we call this innovative win-win collaboration model because this arrangement is supported by multi years of product alignment. So this is a multiple years agreement between UMC and the customers. And under the alignment, there's also loading protection mechanism to ensure the capacity to maintain in a healthier loading level. So in other words, this P6 program is well protected with the commitment and obligation from both sides.

我們稱這種創新的雙贏合作模式是因為這種安排得到了多年產品一致性的支持。所以這是 UMC 與客戶之間的多年協議。並且在走線之下，還有負載保護機制，確保容量保持在更健康的負載水平。所以換句話說，這個P6項目在雙方的承諾和義務下得到了很好的保護。

Now when you talk about the cyclical risk, this P6 only accounts about 10% to 15% of our operations. With or without the P6, the rest of other capacity offering will be more vulnerable to the industry's cyclicality. So I think the P6 program itself is set up well-protected. Our focus is more on the base of our capacity. And at this -- at the end of the day, our goal to protect our base capacity is we have to continue our relentless enhancement in the technology competitiveness and our manufacturing excellence and -- with the predictable yield stability, our service and the sizable capacity offering. So those are the fundamental solution to cope with the industry's cyclicality.

現在當你談到週期性風險時，這個 P6 只占我們業務的 10% 到 15%。無論有沒有 P6，其餘的其他產能供應都將更容易受到行業周期性的影響。所以我認為 P6 程序本身設置得很好。我們的重點更多地放在我們能力的基礎上。歸根結底，我們保護基礎產能的目標是，我們必須繼續不懈地提高技術競爭力和卓越製造能力，並憑藉可預測的產量穩定性、我們的服務和可觀的產能提供。因此，這些是應對行業周期性的根本解決方案。

And so the bottom line, I think the P6 program itself is more well structured, well protected. And -- but the market ups and downs, it will happen. And -- but I -- from our current academic methodology, based on our best effort, we're seeing the demand-supply imbalance situation with those material will stay for some time. The conventional concern, inventory correction or the market ups and downs, probably won't happen within the 1 to 2 years. And -- but beyond that, we have to still go back to focus on our fundamentals. Yes. So that's sort of how we view about this.

因此，歸根結底，我認為 P6 程序本身結構更完善，受到了更好的保護。並且——但市場起起落落，它會發生。而且——但我——根據我們目前的學術方法，基於我們的最大努力，我們看到這些材料的供需失衡情況將持續一段時間。傳統的擔憂，庫存修正或市場漲跌，可能在1-2年內不會發生。而且 - 但除此之外，我們仍然必須回去關注我們的基本面。是的。這就是我們對此的看法。

So that create actually a bigger problem. For example, like 28, right, your covering capacity is like 50,000 to 60,000 wafers per month. So the additional 20,000 is well protected in 2022 onward, but the remaining 50,000 is not protected. So if the customer is having like capacity in both sides, they will fulfill the P6, but they can cut their orders on the P5 -- P -- the original previous 50,000 wafers per month capacity. Is that right?

所以這實際上造成了一個更大的問題。比如說像28吧，你的covering capacity大概是一個月50000到60000片晶圓。所以額外的 20,000 人在 2022 年以後得到很好的保護，但剩下的 50,000 人不受保護。因此，如果客戶在雙方都有類似的產能，他們將履行 P6，但他們可以削減 P5 的訂單——P——原來每月 50,000 片晶圓的產能。那正確嗎？

Yes. I mean -- so what I'm saying is from a competitiveness standpoint, the -- whether we have a P6 or P5, we have to deal with the same situation. And in order to protect or compete in that space, our competitiveness is not going to be based on this imbalance or even people talking about geopolitical or trade issue or so on and so forth. Our core competence will result from our focus in our addressable market segment and which we have been doing for the past few years.

是的。我的意思是 - 所以我所說的是從競爭力的角度來看 - 無論我們有 P6 還是 P5，我們都必須處理相同的情況。為了在該領域保護或競爭，我們的競爭力不會基於這種不平衡，甚至不會基於人們談論地緣政治或貿易問題等等。我們的核心競爭力將源於我們對可尋址細分市場的關注，這也是我們過去幾年一直在做的事情。

We -- another simple word to put it is we're putting -- we focus on a selective market area within our addressable market segment. And we believe the retentive technology within that segment, and then we start aligning with the customer and strengthen our portfolio. And as a result, we actually start seeing a market gain on that as well. So we have to continue executing that and -- to protect the baseline.

我們 - 另一個簡單的詞就是我們正在投入 - 我們專注於我們可尋址細分市場中的選擇性市場區域。我們相信該細分市場中的保留技術，然後我們開始與客戶保持一致並加強我們的產品組合。結果，我們實際上也開始看到市場收益。所以我們必須繼續執行它，並且——保護基線。

And so I think we march into the direction we feel comfortable. And we feel that we have been staying focused in a select area. We have been executed, and we've become more relevant. So at this point -- and we think that we just have to continue executing that. And the market risk just continues. And we don't have the confidence to say the market will never happen in this cyclical situation, but you have to prepare yourself to compete in that situation.

所以我認為我們朝著我們覺得舒服的方向前進。我們覺得我們一直專注於一個選定的領域。我們已經被處決，我們變得更重要了。所以在這一點上——我們認為我們只需要繼續執行它。而市場風險還在繼續。而且我們沒有信心說市場永遠不會發生這種週期性的情況，但你必須做好在那種情況下競爭的準備。

I see. Okay. One clarification for the P6 investment. You mentioned that ROE target or return-driven target is unchanged. But for me, it's like the current wafer price for the 28 cannot justify the return. How can that -- how can this P6 return be secure? Or how can we ensure that it will not be margin dilutive for this incremental revenue? Or how can we ensure that the incremental ROE is not diluted?

我懂了。好的。對 P6 投資的一項澄清。您提到 ROE 目標或回報驅動目標沒有改變。但對我來說，這就像 28 目前的晶圓價格不能證明回報是合理的。這怎麼可能 - 這個 P6 回報怎麼可能是安全的？或者我們如何確保它不會稀釋這種增量收入的利潤率？或者如何保證增量ROE不被攤薄？

Because the current program has a pretty determined pricing for the P6 program. And based on that, the program not only support the top line growth, they also support our multi years of margin accretion.

因為當前程序對 P6 程序有相當確定的定價。基於此，該計劃不僅支持收入增長，還支持我們多年的利潤增長。

I see. I see. So this P6 wafer price will be different compared to your increasing 28-nanometer capacity?

我懂了。我懂了。那麼這個P6晶圓的價格跟你們增加的28納米產能相比會有什麼不同嗎？

It is different, yes.

這是不同的，是的。

I understand that. But can we disclose somehow the price premium?

我明白那個。但我們能否以某種方式披露價格溢價？

No, we can't.

不，我們不能。

And the next question is coming from Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Firstly, for this new capacity arrangement. Could we talk a little bit about what level of enrollment do the customers have? Did you consider any potential co-investment from the customer? And any thinking on why you accept co-investment or why you don't accept any co-investment? Just wanted to understand that part.

首先，對於這個新的產能安排。我們能否談談客戶的註冊水平？您是否考慮過客戶的任何潛在共同投資？以及您是否考慮過為什麼接受跟投或為什麼不接受任何跟投？只是想了解那部分。

And when we talk about ROI boundary, could we put some numbers around it so that will be clear for us to communicate to investors? Also, in terms of what is kind of like the ROI boundary that is kind of like a hard stop in terms of where UMC will not invest?

當我們談論 ROI 邊界時，我們能否在它周圍加上一些數字，以便我們與投資者溝通時清楚？另外，就聯電不會投資的地方而言，投資回報率邊界有點像硬停？

Well, first of all, the -- in addition to what I just mentioned earlier, has a predetermined pricing arrangement of P6. And there's also a guarantee to their commitment by committing to the capacity deposit as well as the loading protection, okay? So there is a structural mechanism to protect the P6 program. And I kind of highlighted earlier in the background of this current market situation because of market dynamics. So this group of customers is willing and recognize the possible structural changes, so they participated this with us jointly. So I will say this is a joint program between us and some of the key customers. And so the -- financially, based on that arrangement, we're not affecting UMC's -- the bottom lines and also provide UMC's top line growth.

嗯，首先，除了我剛才提到的，還有一個預先確定的 P6 定價安排。通過承諾容量存款和負載保護，也可以保證他們的承諾，好嗎？所以就有了保護P6程序的結構機制。由於市場動態，我早些時候在當前市場形勢的背景下強調了這一點。所以這批客戶是願意並且認可可能的結構性變化，所以他們和我們一起參與了這個。所以我會說這是我們和一些主要客戶之間的聯合計劃。因此——在財務上，基於這種安排，我們不會影響 UMC 的——底線，也提供 UMC 的頂線增長。

And we have spent a lot of time discussing this, ensuring many of the data. And we both agree this is the right thing to do to solving the shortage issues and without affecting UMC's disciplined ROI-driven strategy. I can elaborate more about the specific ROI numbers, but I can tell you that under our Board of Directors review and our team's review, and we see the bottom line with the margin accretion, and that meets our -- it meets our financial targets. So -- and again, I also mentioned earlier, the -- with the P6 program, the near-term downward depreciation trend remains unchanged, even post the 2023 asset production start ramping. So we feel this is a well-structured program for us.

我們花了很多時間討論這個，確保了許多數據。我們都同意這是解決短缺問題的正確做法，並且不會影響 UMC 嚴格的 ROI 驅動戰略。我可以詳細說明具體的投資回報率數字，但我可以告訴你，根據我們的董事會審查和我們團隊的審查，我們看到了利潤增長的底線，這符合我們的 - 它符合我們的財務目標。所以——我之前也提到過——通過 P6 計劃，即使在 2023 年資產生產開始加速之後，近期的貶值趨勢仍未改變。所以我們覺得這對我們來說是一個結構良好的項目。

Got it. Understood. Just one other question. Is there any change in terms of shipment outlook? I think you did talk about blended ASP being up maybe about 10% this year compared to previous. I think we're expecting a little bit more, like mid-single digits. Shipment growth or capacity growth outlook for this year, are we still roughly looking at 3% to 5% capacity growth this year? Or is it a little bit better now?

知道了。明白了。只是另一個問題。出貨前景是否有任何變化？我想你確實談到了今年的混合 ASP 與去年相比可能上漲了 10% 左右。我認為我們期待更多，比如中個位數。今年的出貨量增長或運力增長展望，我們是否仍大致看今年3%至5%的運力增長？還是現在好一點了？

Yes. That capacity growth is the same for the year, yes.

是的。是的，這一年的產能增長是一樣的。

And the next one is from Roland Shu, Citigroup.

下一位來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

First question out to Jason. Jason, in your prepared remark, you said the first quarter gross profit growth was partly reflects higher contribution from 28-nanometer revenue. So question is, how about the 28-nanometer gross margin compared to the corporate average in first quarter? Are we seeing a 28-nanometer gross margin above corporate average already?

首先向杰森提問。 Jason，在你準備好的發言中，你說第一季度毛利增長部分反映了 28 納米收入的貢獻增加。那麼問題來了，一季度28納米的毛利率與企業平均水平相比如何？我們是否已經看到高於企業平均水平 28 納米的毛利率？

We don't give out any breakdown by node, okay? So the 28 becomes a meaningful node to us now and -- from both sides. They are both on the top line in our margin contributions.

我們不會按節點給出任何細分，好嗎？因此，28 號現在對我們和雙方來說都是一個有意義的節點。他們都在我們的保證金貢獻中名列前茅。

If I may, the 28 is actually compared to itself over the past few quarters. So the gross margin of current 28-nanometer is actually much better than the past few quarters.

如果可以的話，實際上將 28 與過去幾個季度中的自身進行了比較。所以現在28納米的毛利率其實比過去幾個季度要好很多。

Okay. Yes. Then how about the overall 8-inch and 12-inch gross margin? I think previously, you also said that 12-inch gross margin was below corporate average. Then after this price adjustment, how about your 8-inch and the 12-inch gross margin look like?

好的。是的。那麼8寸和12寸的整體毛利率又如何呢？我想你之前也說過12寸的毛利率低於企業平均水平。那麼這次調價之後，你們8寸和12寸的毛利率怎麼樣？

Price adjustment is really a reflection of our market value. It comes from both absolute price increase as well as product mix increase. So it doesn't really change too much about the dynamic between 8-inch and 12-inch. And 8-inch, as you can understand that it represents much less -- carry much less depreciation. From an accounting point of view, the numbers are always higher than that of 12-inch. But if we're talking about EBITDA margin, then that may not necessarily be the case. So overall, we were happy with the progression that 12-inch, especially 28-nanometer, has improved from a profit margin point of view.

價格調整確實反映了我們的市場價值。它來自絕對價格上漲以及產品組合增加。所以它並沒有真正改變太多關於 8 英寸和 12 英寸之間的動態。而 8 英寸，正如你所理解的那樣，它代表的要少得多——折舊要少得多。從會計的角度來看，數字總是高於 12 英寸。但如果我們談論的是 EBITDA 利潤率，那麼情況可能不一定如此。所以總的來說，我們對 12 英寸，尤其是 28 納米，從利潤率的角度來看有所改善的進展感到滿意。

Understood. Yes. And you also talked about that you're starting to ship 22-nanometer product because of customers' demand. So for this 28- to 22-nanometer migration, how about the margin or profitability change? Is this a 22-nanometer? Does that carry a much higher ASP and carry a better gross margin than 28-nanometer?

明白了。是的。而且您還談到，由於客戶的需求，您開始出貨 22 納米產品。那麼對於這種 28 納米到 22 納米的遷移，利潤率或盈利能力的變化如何？這是22納米嗎？與 28 納米相比，它是否具有更高的平均售價和更高的毛利率？

I mean, typically, we provide the blended gross margin number without breaking down by detail. So it's hard to pinpoint on each node. But I'd also like to add, the gross margin is a result not just the product mix, the 12-inch wafer shipment contribution, 8-inch pricing justification as well as the continued cost reduction effort and our productivity improvement. So this is more of a blended result on everything. And it's not just associated with 1 particular node or -- and -- or fab. So the -- we're happy that we start challenging the 30% in the upcoming quarters. I think given what we have done we are confident we'll continue to improve on that, too. Yes.

我的意思是，通常情況下，我們會提供混合毛利率數字，而不會按細節細分。所以很難在每個節點上精確定位。但我還想補充一點，毛利率不僅僅是產品組合、12 英寸晶圓出貨量貢獻、8 英寸定價合理性以及持續降低成本的努力和我們生產力提高的結果。所以這更像是對一切的混合結果。它不僅與 1 個特定節點或 - 和 - 或晶圓廠相關聯。所以——我們很高興我們在接下來的幾個季度開始挑戰 30%。我認為鑑於我們所做的，我們有信心我們也會繼續改進。是的。

Okay. Last question for me. I think a couple of months ago, you were comfortable of the total wafer supply. And have you changed your view recently due to this increasing wafer demand? So are you able to secure enough raw wafer from your suppliers?

好的。我的最後一個問題。我想幾個月前，你對晶圓的總供應量感到滿意。由於晶圓需求的增加，您最近是否改變了看法？那麼您是否能夠從您的供應商那裡獲得足夠的原始晶圓？

Yes. We had that issue a while back, and we have been diligently working on that and closely aligned with our supplier in managing the supply assurance. So we haven't seen any problem right now. No.

是的。不久前我們遇到了這個問題，我們一直在努力解決這個問題，並與我們的供應商密切合作管理供應保證。所以我們現在還沒有看到任何問題。不。

Okay. So you have secure of the wafer. So how about for the wafer price change? Do you see a meaningful wafer price change recently?

好的。所以你有晶圓的安全。那麼晶圓價格變化如何呢？您最近是否看到有意義的晶圓價格變化？

We see this pricing dynamics across the supply chain. And I can't tell you what's going to happen tomorrow. But at the current stage, with -- based on the alignment with our supplier, we're okay with the current pricing structure. Yes.

我們在整個供應鏈中看到了這種定價動態。我不能告訴你明天會發生什麼。但在目前階段，基於與我們供應商的一致性，我們對當前的定價結構沒有意見。是的。

So do you see the pricing going up or...

所以你看到價格上漲還是......

I don't have that visibility going up at this point, but I don't know will that change tomorrow or not. Yes.

目前我還沒有看到那種能見度上升，但我不知道明天會不會改變。是的。

And the next one is from Szeho Ng, China Renaissance.

下一位來自 China Renaissance 的 Szeho Ng。

I have 2 questions. The first one regarding the 40-nano strategy. Because some of the 20-nano products have plans to go into the 40-nano, I'm not sure if UMC would start assessing the 40-nano expansion possibility?

我有兩個問題。第一個關於 40 納米戰略。因為有些20納米的產品有計劃進軍40納米，不知道聯電會不會開始評估40納米擴產的可能性？

Yes. The P6 program, the arrangement with option to migrate into 40, and the possible timeframe will be sometime in 2024, and -- but there's no plan before that. Yes.

是的。 P6 計劃，可選擇遷移到 40 的安排，可能的時間框架將在 2024 年的某個時候，而且——但在那之前沒有計劃。是的。

I see. Got you. And regarding the collaborative expansion with the customer that the comment we have some sort of a loading protection mechanism. So I just wonder how long would that protection clause last in general?

我懂了。明白了關於與客戶的合作擴展，我們有某種加載保護機制。所以我只是想知道該保護條款一般會持續多長時間？

It lasts entirety of the program. Yes.

它持續整個程序。是的。

And the next question comes from Charlie Chan, Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的陳查理。

And congratulations for a very strong results. So my first question is also regarding the P6 projects. So I saw some news flow, so just want to clarify. Is there any equipment consignment from customers? Can you clarify the point?

祝賀你取得了非常好的成績。所以我的第一個問題也是關於 P6 項目的。所以我看到了一些新聞流，所以只想澄清一下。是否有客戶寄送的設備？你能澄清一下嗎？

No. The answer is no. There's no to consignment from customer. Customer will guarantee their commitment by providing the capacity deposit.

不，答案是否定的。客戶沒有托運。客戶將通過提供容量保證金來保證他們的承諾。

Okay. So is almost all from your balance sheet?

好的。那麼幾乎所有都來自您的資產負債表嗎？

Yes, it is.

是的。

Okay. So with that, do you need to increase the kind of debt ratio or do some fund raising to sponsor the future CapEx?

好的。因此，您是否需要增加債務比率或籌集資金來贊助未來的資本支出？

Yes. Our current cash on hand is about a little bit more than $100 billion as well, and we just announced this exchangeable bond project, which will likely to raise another USD 600 million for us by disposing our noncore assets. So I think from a financial standpoint of view, we even can maintain our current high dividend payout ratio in light of this new P6 project. So there is pretty much no impact on our financial structure.

是的。我們目前手頭的現金也大約是 1000 億美元多一點，我們剛剛宣布了這個可交換債券項目，它可能會通過出售我們的非核心資產為我們再籌集 6 億美元。所以我認為從財務的角度來看，我們甚至可以根據這個新的 P6 項目保持目前的高派息率。因此，對我們的財務結構幾乎沒有影響。

Okay. Since you don't -- so back to the P6 business. You mentioned that there are several type of demand, including OLED driver IC, wireless connectivity, setup box, TV, et cetera. So for that kind of P6 or kind of a long-term demand, which customer or which prototype is a major driver for this P6? How the demand comes from -- even if from the current project?

好的。既然你不這樣做——那麼回到 P6 業務。你提到有幾種類型的需求，包括OLED驅動IC、無線連接、機頂盒、電視等等。那麼對於那種 P6 或那種長期需求，哪個客戶或哪個原型是這款 P6 的主要驅動力？需求如何來自——即使來自當前項目？

Well, I mean, first of all, all of them are global leading semi companies. And I can't really name names. And the customers products and our technology roadmap has been well aligned. And it's also our existing customers. At the same time, those customers along with their demand outlook in their addressable market segments, in our view, will outpace the semiconductor industry projection. So it's in a high-growth area. And so we believe this is -- we're well-positioned program to secure the P6 capacity as well to fuel the future growth. Yes.

嗯，我的意思是，首先，他們都是全球領先的半導體公司。我真的不能說出名字。客戶的產品和我們的技術路線圖非常吻合。這也是我們現有的客戶。與此同時，我們認為，這些客戶及其在可尋址細分市場的需求前景將超過半導體行業的預測。所以它處於高增長區域。因此，我們相信這是——我們處於有利位置的計劃可以確保 P6 容量並推動未來增長。是的。

Okay. So it seems like the future demand came across for -- from the fitting customers, not as a single or few products. Is that right interpretation?

好的。因此，未來的需求似乎來自合適的客戶，而不是單一或少數產品。這樣的解釋對嗎？

Yes. It's a multiple customer with multiple products, yes.

是的。是的，這是一個擁有多種產品的多客戶。

Okay. And then my other question is about the trend of the 8-inch -- semi inch project migrate to 12-inch. I'm not sure if that is happening within your fab. But you see that trend of those, for example, large panel driver IC, power IC, sensors. Those products used to use the 8-inch as a major foundry source. But going forward, do you think that this may migrate to like a 12-inch? And maybe a year or 2 years later, do you think 12-inch is more efficient for those kind of speciality semi products?

好的。然後我的另一個問題是關於 8 英寸 - 半英寸項目遷移到 12 英寸的趨勢。我不確定您的晶圓廠是否正在發生這種情況。但是你看到那些趨勢，例如，大面板驅動 IC、電源 IC、傳感器。那些產品曾經使用 8 英寸作為主要代工來源。但是展望未來，您認為這可能會遷移到 12 英寸嗎？也許一年或兩年後，您認為 12 英寸對於那些特種半成品來說效率更高嗎？

Well, I mean, every application, the motive is migrating from 8-inch to 12-inch due to, like you said, the performance reason or cost advantage. So there is a continued product pipeline the -- within a different application, and -- including what you mentioned. And we continue to align with the customer on that. We don't see -- we don't observe any 8-inch demand overflow to 12-inch because the overflow because of 8-inch is high. And so we haven't really seen that. But we continue seeing that on a bi-application basis. And because the product performance reason, because the cost reason, and they continue migrating to a 12-inch. And even within the 12-inch, it will continue migrating into different nodes.

好吧，我的意思是，正如您所說，由於性能原因或成本優勢，每個應用程序的動機都是從 8 英寸遷移到 12 英寸。因此，在不同的應用程序中有一個持續的產品管道，並且 - 包括你提到的內容。我們將繼續與客戶保持一致。我們沒有看到——我們沒有觀察到任何 8 英寸的需求溢出到 12 英寸，因為 8 英寸的溢出量很高。所以我們還沒有真正看到這一點。但我們繼續在雙向應用的基礎上看到這一點。並且由於產品性能原因和成本原因，他們繼續遷移到 12 英寸。甚至在 12 英寸內，它還會繼續遷移到不同的節點。

Okay. Okay. Okay. So I think -- does that mean that 8-inch foundry supply shouldn't see a structural shortage? I mean because there is kind of alternative, right, to use that 12-inch. Is that a right alternative maybe?

好的。好的。好的。所以我認為——這是否意味著 8 英寸代工供應不應該出現結構性短缺？我的意思是因為有一種選擇，對，可以使用那個 12 英寸。這可能是一個正確的選擇嗎？

I think the advantage 8-inch has is structural shortage issue. The demand continue being very strong. However, due to the market challenges on building a greenfield at 8-inch facility is very difficult, so we see that come online as not as fast as the demand growth. So we -- at least for the foreseeable couple of years, I think the 8-inch will remain challenged, and we're still under structural constraints. Yes.

我認為8英寸的優勢是結構性短缺問題。需求繼續非常強勁。然而，由於市場挑戰，在 8 英寸設施上新建綠地非常困難，因此我們看到上線速度不如需求增長快。所以我們 - 至少在可預見的幾年內，我認為 8 英寸仍將面臨挑戰，我們仍處於結構性限制之下。是的。

Okay. Yes. And last question, maybe back to Chitung. So can you help us to understand your gross margin trend into next few years? I know you don't give a next year margin guidance, right? But just based on management's comments just now, it seems to suggest that the P6 would then dilute your gross margin, even though the capacity is from your own balance sheet, right? So can you help me to understand why -- what will give you that confidence into next year's gross margin will continue to go up? Is that because of the further price hike or the older equipments depreciation going down? Because I feel like now you are running at 100% utilization already, right? So the benefits -- margin benefit from the higher utilization presently seems to be the answer to that. Can you help us to understand?

好的。是的。最後一個問題，也許回到 Chitung。那麼您能幫助我們了解您未來幾年的毛利率趨勢嗎？我知道你不會給出明年的利潤率指導，對吧？但是根據管理層剛才的評論，似乎暗示 P6 會稀釋你的毛利率，即使產能來自你自己的資產負債表，對吧？那麼你能幫我理解為什麼 - 是什麼讓你對明年的毛利率將繼續上升充滿信心？這是因為價格進一步上漲還是舊設備折舊下降？因為我覺得現在您的利用率已經達到 100%，對嗎？因此，目前更高利用率帶來的好處——利潤率似乎是解決這個問題的答案。你能幫助我們理解嗎？

Yes. First of all, we didn't say the gross margin will go up sequentially in 2022. We didn't say that. Okay? We say that gross margin is a collective effort of cost reduction, ASP reflecting the market and also product mix adjustment. So we are doing all of that. And hopefully, we can continue to improve our gross margin. But we will give our gross margin guidance quarter-by-quarter.

是的。首先，我們沒有說2022年毛利率會環比上升，我們沒有這麼說。好的？我們說毛利率是成本降低、平均售價反映市場和產品結構調整的共同努力。所以我們正在做所有這些。希望我們可以繼續提高毛利率。但我們將按季度給出毛利率指導。

And as for the P6, it's going to represent about 10% to 15% of overall operation and with a prefixed price and with ROI exempt target. So If we plug into our current base, that's -- the basic assumption to mention that we don't expect this P6 project will dilute our gross margin. And because it's going to be profitable from the very beginning, it's actually going to be adding driving force to our overall ROE performance.

至於 P6，它將佔整體運營的 10% 到 15% 左右，並且有固定價格和 ROI 豁免目標。所以如果我們插入我們目前的基礎，那就是 - 提到我們不希望這個 P6 項目會稀釋我們的毛利率的基本假設。而且因為它從一開始就會盈利，它實際上會為我們的整體 ROE 表現增加驅動力。

Yes. So I remember last quarter, you gave us some depreciation trend, right?

是的。所以我記得上個季度，你給了我們一些貶值趨勢，對吧？

Yes. Depreciation trend wise, for 2021 and as well as 2022, we are still looking for somewhat less than 5% annual decline in the full year depreciation expenses. And beyond 2023, when the P6 numbers start to kick in, in the mid of 2023, the number still will be well under control, and the trend will not be reversed.

是的。從折舊趨勢來看，對於 2021 年和 2022 年，我們仍然預計全年折舊費用的年降幅將略低於 5%。而到了2023年以後，P6的數字開始出現，到2023年中期，這個數字還是會得到很好的控制，而且趨勢不會逆轉。

Okay. Sorry. Sorry, I missed that. So one last one is auto semi production. I mean how much is the revenue contribution? I'm not sure why you start to disclose there that auto semi exposure, and I guess the global investors really are very keen to get your sense about when the auto semi output will go up from your side, and also, when do you think the shortage will ease?

好的。對不起。對不起，我錯過了。所以最後一個是汽車半成品。我的意思是收入貢獻是多少？我不確定你為什麼開始在那裡披露汽車半導體的風險敞口，我想全球投資者真的非常渴望了解汽車半導體產量何時會從你這邊上升，以及你認為什麼時候短缺會緩解嗎？

I mean the shortage right now is across the board, and we just have to work with our customers closely, and along with the productivity improvements as well as the new capacity expansion. The auto segment itself, we haven't really break it down in our pie. It's category under the others. So right now, others account about 11%. So for our automotive market, it's within numbers. Yes.

我的意思是現在短缺是全面的，我們只需要與我們的客戶密切合作，同時提高生產力和擴大新的產能。汽車細分市場本身，我們還沒有真正把它分解成我們的餡餅。它屬於其他類別。所以現在，其他人約佔 11%。所以對於我們的汽車市場，它在數字之內。是的。

And the next one is from Sunny Lin, UBS.

下一位來自瑞銀集團的 Sunny Lin。

And congratulations for your great results. My first question is also on your P6 expansion. I think you just put out a press release saying that the fab show has been completed, but the net production will only start from second quarter of 2023. So I wonder if that's because of the equipment supply constraint that we are now seeing in the industry? Or is there any possibility that the mass production could actually start earlier than expected?

祝賀你取得了優異的成績。我的第一個問題也是關於您的 P6 擴展。我想你剛剛發布了一份新聞稿，說晶圓廠已經完成，但淨產量只會從 2023 年第二季度開始。所以我想知道這是否是因為我們現在在行業中看到的設備供應限制？或者是否有可能實際比預期更早開始量產？

Well, I mean we are working with our suppliers. And at this point, we'll see there's a lead time for the overall equipment. So we project the P6 already for production on second quarter 2023. That's what we're targeting. But we're still confirming with our supplier to ensure that, that would happen. So that's the current plan.

好吧，我的意思是我們正在與我們的供應商合作。在這一點上，我們將看到整個設備的交貨時間。所以我們預計 P6 已經在 2023 年第二季度投入生產。這就是我們的目標。但我們仍在與我們的供應商確認，以確保那會發生。這就是目前的計劃。

Got it. Maybe a follow-up to your 28 expansion. Since most of your capacity is built several years ago, and therefore, depreciation start to come down. If we compare the production cost for the new capacity versus your current capacity, I wonder if you could share with us any color in terms of the cost increase.

知道了。也許是您 28 擴展的後續行動。由於您的大部分產能是幾年前建成的，因此折舊率開始下降。如果我們將新產能的生產成本與您當前的產能進行比較，我想知道您是否可以與我們分享成本增加方面的任何顏色。

Well, first of all, I don't think there's a cost increase. So once you reach to certain economic scale, the overall cost is actually coming down, so we don't -- (inaudible) in building a factory now compared to what we're doing in the capacity 6 years ago. It's higher. And it's actually -- in fact, it's actually lower, okay? And we -- in terms of the CapEx budget that we presented, we don't generalize this figure given that our P6 program has the flexibility that converting into a 22-nanometer as well as a 14. That was earlier question, if we consider a 14, and the answer is yes. So the entire program has certain flexibility converting that into the 14-nanometers. And so we want to make sure this -- when we plan this, we have that flexibility, okay? And so we can regenerate this figure to what 6 years ago. But in general, the current 28 cost is lower than what we built 6 years ago.

好吧，首先，我認為成本不會增加。因此，一旦達到一定的經濟規模，總體成本實際上就會下降，因此與 6 年前我們在產能方面所做的相比，我們現在不——（聽不清）建造工廠。它更高。實際上，它實際上更低，好嗎？而且我們 - 就我們提出的資本支出預算而言，我們不會概括這個數字，因為我們的 P6 計劃具有轉換為 22 納米和 14 納米的靈活性。如果我們考慮，這是之前的問題14，答案是肯定的。因此整個程序具有一定的靈活性，可以將其轉換為 14 納米。所以我們想確保這一點——當我們計劃這個時，我們有這種靈活性，好嗎？所以我們可以將這個數字重新生成為 6 年前的數字。但總的來說，現在的 28 成本比我們 6 年前建造的要低。

Got it. That's very helpful. My second question is on the overall supply-demand imbalance. And that's now I think driving several foundries to accelerate the CapEx for the trailing edge. So just want to get your sense if in the medium term this could lead to overexpansion or more volatility for the whole industry?

知道了。這很有幫助。第二個問題是關於總體供需失衡的問題。這就是我現在認為推動幾家代工廠加速後緣資本支出的原因。因此，如果在中期這會導致整個行業的過度擴張或更多波動，那麼只是想了解一下您的感覺嗎？

I mean the -- I kind of touched this earlier as well. But once the newly capacity become available, we anticipate the supply imbalance issue will be addressed, okay? But nonetheless, the structural shortage in the material we think will remain unchanged until 2023, okay? Given the lead time consideration, okay? Based on our research and study, we don't even -- we think there's a good chance they won't have any excess capacity, okay? It's probably not likely to happen within the next 1 to 2 years, okay? In addition to that, consider the -- beside the lead time, capacity delivery lead time, and also the uncertainty of the geopolitical tensions, we have pretty good confidence this tightness will probably continue for at least 1 to 2 years.

我的意思是——我之前也提到過這一點。但是一旦新產能可用，我們預計供應不平衡問題將得到解決，好嗎？但是儘管如此，我們認為材料的結構性短缺將在 2023 年之前保持不變，好嗎？考慮到提前期，好嗎？根據我們的研究和研究，我們甚至 - 我們認為他們很有可能不會有任何過剩產能，好嗎？未來 1 到 2 年內可能不會發生，好嗎？除此之外，考慮 - 除了交貨時間、產能交付時間以及地緣政治緊張局勢的不確定性之外，我們非常有信心這種緊縮可能會持續至少 1 到 2 年。

The next question comes from [Stefan Chang], [Ellis Capital].

下一個問題來自【Stefan Chang】、【Ellis Capital】。

And I have 2 questions here. First is I'm just wondering, because we see for some (inaudible) technology, we already see clients have the semi product that they are using dual sourcing. I'm just wondering, if you look at the 28-nanometer now, do the clients usually use only 1 foundry for those production product or for the semi product clients would still use dual sourcing? This is my first question.

我在這裡有 2 個問題。首先，我只是想知道，因為我們看到一些（聽不清）技術，我們已經看到客戶擁有他們使用雙重來源的半成品。我只是想知道，如果您現在看 28 納米，客戶通常只使用 1 個代工廠生產那些生產產品還是半成品客戶仍會使用雙重採購？這是我的第一個問題。

Well, I mean, this is -- there are several different perspective on this, okay? One is from a customer's perspective. If a customer believes they need a multiple sourcing strategy to ensure their supply, to ensure their supply came, and they have the design resources, I think the customer is capable to do so to enable multiple sourcing. If they perceive single-source will enable their supply assurance and result in double the design efforts, they probably don't need to. So one perspective is on the customers' perspective on the supply chain.

好吧，我的意思是，對此有幾種不同的看法，好嗎？一種是從客戶的角度來看。如果客戶認為他們需要多采購策略來確保他們的供應，確保他們的供應來了，並且他們有設計資源，我認為客戶有能力這樣做以實現多采購。如果他們認為單一來源將確保他們的供應並導致雙倍的設計工作，他們可能不需要這樣做。因此，一種觀點是客戶對供應鏈的看法。

And the -- on the design and the product specific, and that's a different consideration (inaudible) they're very customized. So they are very hard to have multiple source. So because the (inaudible) of the product, yes. So when you're talking about the advanced node, because we don't serve on the very leading edge node, so I can't really give you a comment about UMC specifically. But I can tell you as a general sense, design into an advanced node is very costly. So if you want to enable multiple source, that will be a very -- it will be a significant investment. So investment is one of the important factor here. Yes.

而且 - 在設計和產品特定方面，這是一個不同的考慮因素（聽不清），它們是非常定制的。所以他們很難有多個來源。所以因為產品的（聽不清），是的。所以當你在談論高級節點時，因為我們不在最前沿的節點上服務，所以我不能具體給你評論聯華電子。但我可以告訴你，從一般意義上講，設計一個高級節點的成本非常高。因此，如果您想啟用多個來源，那將是一項非常重要的投資。所以投資是這裡的重要因素之一。是的。

Yes. Yes. Understood. Actually, the question was, if your comment you just made all sort of tied to 28-nanometer?

是的。是的。明白了。實際上，問題是，如果您的評論與 28 納米有關？

If you look at the 28 capacity, the -- I think most of the product, they'd be able to enable multiple source. I think -- as long as the customer wants to do it. There will be a -- there will be some differentiation on the technology side. For UMC, we have a few leading market position on some of the technology solutions. And for those, I think we're still ahead in the market. So we probably will enjoy better customer stickiness on that.

如果您查看 28 個容量，我認為大多數產品都能夠啟用多個來源。我認為——只要客戶願意就可以。在技術方面會有一些差異。對於聯電，我們在一些技術解決方案上擁有領先的市場地位。對於那些，我認為我們在市場上仍然領先。因此，我們可能會在這方面享受更好的客戶粘性。

Understood. Another question is -- although just very quickly, so we understood that for the mature node, like 200 millimeters, 300 millimeters mature node, they are always (inaudible). But if you really need to do a comparison between the 2, do you see it is tighter or the bigger shortage in 200-millimeter or in 300-millimeter?

明白了。另一個問題是——雖然很快，所以我們了解到對於成熟節點，比如 200 毫米、300 毫米成熟節點，它們總是（聽不清）。但是，如果您真的需要對兩者進行比較，您會發現 200 毫米或 300 毫米更緊還是缺口更大？

Well, it's -- this is an interesting question, okay. From our view, what we see, they're severely constrained on both the 200-millimeter as well as the 300-millimeter. But there's a possibility also the customer is a double booking on that to ensure they'd be able to secure supply. So how we're judging the overbooking is very difficult. But I can tell you, at this point, I think industry-wise, we are under severe shortage across the board on the mature node.

好吧，這是一個有趣的問題，好吧。從我們的角度來看，我們所看到的，它們在 200 毫米和 300 毫米上都受到嚴重限制。但也有可能客戶會重複預訂，以確保他們能夠獲得供應。所以我們如何判斷超額預訂是非常困難的。但我可以告訴你，在這一點上，我認為在行業方面，我們在成熟節點上全面嚴重短缺。

Yes. So just a very quick follow-up on your last comment. So you mentioned about, probably due to a possible overbooking. But previously, you also mentioned you see the tightness will continue probably for another 1 to 2 years. So can we assume when you make the comments regarding supply tightness possibility, you already try to exclude the -- you already had to consider the possible overbooking?

是的。因此，只需快速跟進您的最後評論。所以你提到，可能是由於可能超額預訂。但之前，你也提到你看到緊張可能會再持續 1 到 2 年。那麼我們是否可以假設當您就供應緊張的可能性發表評論時，您已經嘗試排除 - 您已經不得不考慮可能的超額預訂？

Absolutely. I mean this is a planning 101. So we have to consider that. And we actually -- based on our research and study, we're actually going back all the way to the end market, entire pipeline in terms of the supply chain to analysis that. So I think that there's a few mega trends in this space driving the demand, from 5G smartphones, the automotive, EV adoption as well as the learn-from-home, work-from-home space. And so those demands are real, okay? So -- and if you look at the past years, there's lack of CapEx in the mature node space. So structurally, they're just not enough. And so that's why we believe, even with the P6 or even with any announced capacity today in the foundry space, we still believe this -- the structural shortage will probably remains.

絕對地。我的意思是這是一個計劃 101。所以我們必須考慮這一點。實際上，根據我們的研究和研究，我們實際上一直回到終端市場，從供應鏈的角度分析整個管道。因此，我認為這個領域有一些推動需求的大趨勢，從 5G 智能手機、汽車、電動汽車的採用以及在家學習、在家工作的空間。所以這些要求是真實的，好嗎？所以——如果你回顧過去幾年，就會發現成熟節點空間中缺乏資本支出。所以在結構上，它們還不夠。因此，這就是為什麼我們相信，即使有 P6 或什至今天在代工領域宣布的任何產能，我們仍然相信這一點——結構性短缺可能仍然存在。

Ladies and gentlemen, we're running out of time, so we're taking the last question. And the last one is from Bruce Lu, Goldman Sachs.

女士們，先生們，我們的時間不多了，所以我們來回答最後一個問題。最後一位來自高盛的 Bruce Lu。

Okay. I have a question about ASP. For the first quarter, ASP as a blended base improved by 1.3% only and -- which is pretty much driven by like more 28-nanometer product mix improvement. So where is the price hike that market is talking about? I mean also for the second quarter, the capacity is growing by 4%, but (inaudible) growing by 3%. But I'm assuming that the new capacity addition is mainly for 28-nanometer capacity, which is supposed to have a much bigger or much higher ASP. The ASP guidance for second quarter is also like 3%, 4% only, which is, again, pretty much driven by 28. So as a like-to-like base ASP, do we see any improvement?

好的。我有一個關於 ASP 的問題。第一季度，作為混合基數的 ASP 僅提高了 1.3%，而且這在很大程度上是由更多 28 納米產品組合改進推動的。那麼市場所說的漲價在哪裡呢？我的意思是，對於第二季度，產能增長了 4%，但（聽不清）增長了 3%。但我假設新增容量主要針對 28 納米容量，這應該具有更大或更高的 ASP。第二季度的 ASP 指導也大約為 3%，僅為 4%，這又一次受到 28 的驅動。因此，作為一個類似的基礎 ASP，我們是否看到任何改進？

Well, there's (inaudible) the first quarter ASP growth was actually more than 3%, not 1 point something. So as I mentioned about -- some of that comes from price increase, so less than 3.2%. And some of that comes from product mix improvement. So overall, quarter 1 ASP growth was more than 3%.

好吧，（聽不清）第一季度平均售價增長率實際上超過 3%，而不是 1 個百分點。所以正如我提到的——其中一些來自價格上漲，所以不到 3.2%。其中一些來自產品組合的改進。因此，總體而言，第一季度平均售價增長超過 3%。

I see. What is the ForEx assumption in first quarter? Because it's using like...

我懂了。第一季度的 ForEx 假設是什麼？因為它的使用就像...

ForEx was 2 -- 28.3. So there was a nearly 2% negative impact from ForEx.

ForEx 為 2 -- 28.3。因此，ForEx 產生了近 2% 的負面影響。

I see. Understand that. Understand. So for the second quarter, what is the ASP -- what is the assumption for the ASP expansion driven by the product mix improvement?

我懂了。明白。理解。那麼對於第二季度，平均售價是多少——產品組合改善推動平均售價擴張的假設是什麼？

Still similar. I would say both are key factors, which contribute nearly 50-50 each. So we normally don't give the detailed numbers, but you should expect to see a similar driving force for this 4% growth for quarter 2 in ASP.

還是類似的。我會說兩者都是關鍵因素，每個因素都貢獻近 50-50。因此，我們通常不會提供詳細數字，但您應該會看到類似的驅動力推動第二季度 ASP 增長 4%。

I see. Okay. Last question, I just did a very quick math for the P6 28-nanometer wafer price. It seems to me that you want to have a similar return. The wafer price for that 28 has to be like 50%-plus higher than the current market price. That seems too good to be true from my simple math. So is there anything I'm missing? Or is that math sounds correct?

我懂了。好的。最後一個問題，我剛剛對 P6 28 納米晶圓的價格進行了非常快速的計算。在我看來，您想獲得類似的回報。這 28 顆晶圓的價格必須比當前市場價格高出 50% 以上。從我的簡單數學來看，這似乎好得令人難以置信。那有什麼我想念的嗎？或者這個數學聽起來正確嗎？

I can't really comment on (inaudible) percentage, but there is a predetermined pricing arrangement with the customers. It's actually a very diversified customer portfolio. So it -- well, I mean the bottom line is the mechanism works. I mean the math work, okay?

我無法真正評論（聽不清）百分比，但與客戶有預先確定的定價安排。它實際上是一個非常多元化的客戶組合。所以它 - 好吧，我的意思是底線是機制有效。我的意思是數學作業，好嗎？

The math -- so my math work?

數學——那麼我的數學有用嗎？

So it's -- yes, I can't comment about the percentage of that.

所以它 - 是的，我無法評論其中的百分比。

Basically wrong in one effect of the total ROI calculation. We also factor in the benefit of the economy of scale and also the cost reduction effort and et cetera, et cetera. The -- all the factors Chitung just mentioned. So again, it's a collective factor.

總投資回報率計算的一個影響基本上是錯誤的。我們還考慮了規模經濟的好處以及降低成本的努力等等。 Chitung 剛才提到的所有因素。所以，這又是一個集體因素。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, we thank you for all your questions. That concludes today's Q&A session. I'll turn it over to UMC Head of IR for closing remarks. Thank you.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，我們感謝你們提出的所有問題。今天的問答環節到此結束。我將把它交給 UMC 的 IR 負責人作結束語。謝謝你。

Yes. Thank you for attending this conference today. We appreciate your questions. As always, if you have any additional follow-up questions, please feel free to contact UMC at ir@umc.com. Have a good day.

是的。感謝您參加今天的會議。感謝您提出問題。與往常一樣，如果您有任何其他後續問題，請隨時通過 ir@umc.com 聯繫 UMC。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our conference for first quarter 2021. Thank you for your participation in UMC's conference. There will be a webcast replay within an hour. Please visit www.umc.com under the Investors' Events section. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，我們 2021 年第一季度的會議到此結束。感謝您參加 UMC 的會議。一個小時內將進行網絡廣播重播。請訪問投資者活動部分下的 www.umc.com。您現在可以斷開連接。再見。