聯華電子 (UMC) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, everyone, to UMC's 2021 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) For your information, this conference call is now being broadcasted live over the Internet. Webcast replay will be available within an hour after the conference is finished. Please visit our website, www.umc.com, under the Investor Relations, Investors' Events section.

歡迎大家參加聯電 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）僅供參考，本次電話會議現透過網路進行現場直播。會議結束後一小時內將提供網路直播重播。請造訪我們的網站 www.umc.com，位於「投資者關係」、「投資者活動」部分。

And now I would like to introduce Mr. Michael Lin, Head of Investor Relations at UMC. And Mr. Lin, please begin.

現在我想介紹一下聯華電子投資者關係主管 Michael Lin 先生。林先生，請開始。

Thank you, and welcome to the UMC's conference call for the first quarter of 2021. I'm joined by Mr. Jason Wang, the President of UMC; and Mr. Chitung Liu, the CFO of UMC.

謝謝大家，歡迎參加聯電 2021 年第一季電話會議。以及聯華電子財務長劉啟東先生。

In a moment, we will hear our CFO present the first quarter financial results, followed by our President's key message to address UMC's focus and the second quarter 2021 guidance. Once our President and the CFO complete their remarks, there will be a Q&A section.

稍後，我們將聽到我們的財務長介紹第一季的財務業績，然後是我們的總裁關於解決 UMC 重點和 2021 年第二季指導的關鍵訊息。一旦我們的總裁和財務長完成發言，就會有問答部分。

UMC's quarterly financial reports are available at our website, www.umc.com, under the Investors' Financial section.

UMC 的季度財務報告可在我們的網站 www.umc.com 的投資者財務部分查閱。

During this conference, we may make forward-looking statements based on the management's current expectations and beliefs. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially including the risk that may be beyond the company's control. For these risks, please refer to UMC's filing with the SEC in the U.S. and the ROC securities authorities.

在這次會議期間，我們可能會根據管理層目前的期望和信念做出前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，包括可能超出公司控制範圍的風險。對於這些風險，請參閱聯華電子向美國 SEC 和中華民國證券監管機構提交的文件。

Now I would like to introduce UMC's CFO, Mr. Chitung Liu, to discuss UMC's first quarter 2021 financial results.

現在我想介紹聯電財務長劉啟東先生，討論聯華電子2021年第一季的財務表現。

Thank you, Michael. I would like to go through the first quarter '21 investor conference presentation material, which can be downloaded from our website.

謝謝你，麥可。 我想瀏覽一下 21 年第一季投資者會議的簡報資料，這些資料可以從我們的網站下載。

Starting on Page 3. The first quarter of 2021 consolidated revenue was TWD 47.1 billion, with gross margin at 26.5%. The net income attributable to the stockholder of the parent was TWD 10.43 billion, and the earnings per ordinary shares were TWD 0.85. In the first quarter, the capacity utilization rate was 100%, a further improvement from 99% in the previous quarter.

從第3頁開始。歸屬於母公司股東的淨利為新台幣104.3億元，每股普通股收益為新台幣0.85。第一季產能利用率為100%，較上季的99%進一步提升。

And please go to Page 4. For sequential comparison, Q1 revenue of TWD 47.1 billion represents about 4% quarter-over-quarter growth, which contributed both from ASP increase of 3%-plus as well as wafer shipment, which is also 3%-plus. And it was somewhat offseted by the stronger NT dollars. Gross profit margin continued to grow to 26.5% or TWD 12.5 billion. And operating income margin rate in first quarter was 16.2%, increased by 35.7% sequentially. So the net income as reported was around TWD 0.85 per -- for -- per ADS is about USD 0.149.

請參閱第 4 頁。 。新台幣走強在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。毛利率持續成長至26.5%，即125億新台幣。第一季營業利益率為16.2%，季增35.7%。因此，每份 ADS 的淨收入約為 0.85 新台幣，約為 0.149 美元。

So on year-over-year comparison on Page 5. Revenue grow by 11.4% despite the stronger -- much stronger NT dollar exchange rate. Gross margin improved by nearly 7% gross point -- percentage point to 26.5% compared to 19.2% the same period of last year. And gross margin -- operating margin improved to 16.2% from 8.1% in first quarter of 2020. So EPS will show a pretty significant growth from TWD 0.19 in Q1 2020 to TWD 0.85 to -- this past quarter.

因此，在第 5 頁的年比比較中，儘管新台幣匯率走強，但營收成長了 11.4%。毛利率提高了近7個百分點，達到26.5%，去年同期為19.2%。毛利率－營業利潤率從 2020 年第一季的 8.1% 提高到 16.2%。

On Page 6. Our cash is around TWD 107 billion, and the total equity is about close to TWD 250 billion. Like I mentioned earlier, the Q1 earning -- revenue growth contributing both from ASP growth as well as wafer shipment growth.

第6頁。正如我之前提到的，第一季的獲利——收入成長得益於平均售價成長和晶圓出貨量成長。

And on Page 7, you can see there's more than 3% uptick in our blended ASP for first quarter of 2021.

在第 7 頁上，您可以看到 2021 年第一季的混合 ASP 成長了 3% 以上。

In terms of revenue breakdown on Page 8. Asia continued to grow. And right now, it represents about 63% of our total revenue. And Europe and Japan also show minor growth in first quarter of '21.

從第 8 頁的收入細分來看，亞洲持續成長。目前，它約占我們總收入的 63%。歐洲和日本在 21 年第一季也出現小幅成長。

For Page 9, IDM, still unchanged, around 14%.

對於第 9 頁，IDM 仍然保持不變，約為 14%。

And on Page 10, we see some more balanced distribution among 3 major segments. So Consumer now represents about 27% and Communication is about 46%.

在第 10 頁，我們看到 3 個主要細分市場之間的分佈更加平衡。因此，消費者現在約佔 27%，通訊約佔 46%。

And for Page 11, 28/22-nanometer technology represent about 20% of our total price in Q1 2021, and the 40-nanometer represents another 20% for Q1 '21.

第 11 頁，28/22 奈米技術約佔 2021 年第一季總價格的 20%，40 奈米技術約佔 2021 年第一季總價格的 20%。

On Page 12, our capacity breakdown for quarter 2, we will see some 4% quarter-over-quarter capacity growth, mainly coming from 12-inch capacity expansion at both 12A as well as 12X in Xiamen.

在第12頁第二季的產能分佈中，我們將看到產能季增約4%，主要來自廈門12A和12X的12吋產能擴張。

And on Page 13, we revised up our annual CapEx budget, mainly due to a new project in Tainan, which we will go into details later. For the new updated CapEx for '21 is now USD 2.3 billion.

在第13頁，我們修改了年度資本支出預算，主要是由於台南的一個新項目，我們稍後會詳細介紹。 21 年新更新的資本支出現為 23 億美元。

So the above is a summary of UMC results for Q1 2021. More details are available in the report, which has been posted on our website.

以上是聯華電子 2021 年第一季業績的摘要。

I will now turn the call over to President of UMC, Mr. Jason Wang.

我現在將電話轉給聯電總裁王傑森先生。

Thank you, Chitung. Good evening, everyone. Here, I would like to update the first quarter operating result of UMC.

謝謝你，吉東。大家晚上好。 在此，我想更新聯華電子第一季的經營業績。

Amid the semiconductor component shortage, we are working with our customers, suppliers and partners to alleviate the capacity tightness across the supply chain.

在半導體元件短缺的情況下，我們正在與客戶、供應商和合作夥伴合作，以緩解整個供應鏈的產能緊張狀況。

In Q1, robust wafer demand led to a full utilization in our manufacturing side, bringing overall wafer shipments to 2.37 million 8-inch equivalents. For the quarter, our gross profit grew 15.2% quarter-over-quarter to TWD 12.49 billion, which partly reflected higher contribution from our 28-nanometer technology.

第一季度，強勁的晶圓需求導致我們的製造端充分利用，使整體晶圓出貨量達到 237 萬片 8 吋當量。本季毛利環比成長 15.2% 至新台幣 124.9 億元，部分反映了 28 奈米技術的貢獻增加。

During the first quarter, we continued to see an increase in 28-nanometer wafer shipments, driven by strong wafer demand associated with digital TV, set-top box and connectivity chips designed into smartphones. As a result, 28-nanometer revenue grew 18% quarter-over-quarter, representing 20% of our wafer business. Furthermore, we have started to ship 22-nanometer products to fulfill consumer demand, leading to a recognition of 22-nanometer wafer revenue in first quarter '21.

第一季度，受數位電視、機上盒和智慧型手機連接晶片相關晶圓需求強勁的推動，28 奈米晶圓出貨量持續成長。因此，28奈米營收季增18%，占我們晶圓業務的20%。此外，我們已經開始出貨22奈米產品以滿足消費者需求，從而在21年第一季確認了22奈米晶圓收入。

We foresee a significant pickup in 22-nanometer product tape out that will increase our 22/28-nanometer product pipeline, optimize overall product mix and enhance UMC foundry share.

我們預計 22 奈米產品流片量將大幅增加，這將增加我們的 22/28 奈米產品線、優化整體產品組合併提高聯電代工份額。

Looking into the second quarter, market demand will continue to outpace supply, which will lift wafer shipments and blended ASP in U.S. dollars. Recent market dynamics have provided us and our customers an opportunity to reinforce our CapEx strategy within ROI boundary, while trying to alleviate the long-term capacity constraint in the supply chain. Therefore, our Board of Directors have approved an investment plan, which will expand the capacity at UMC Fab 12A P6 in Taiwan Tainan Science Park through an innovative win-win partnership model with several leading global customers.

展望第二季度，市場需求將持續超過供應，這將提升晶圓出貨量和以美元計的混合平均售價。最近的市場動態為我們和我們的客戶提供了在投資回報率範圍內加強資本支出策略的機會，同時努力緩解供應鏈中的長期產能限制。因此，我們的董事會已批准一項投資計劃，透過與多家全球領先客戶的創新雙贏合作模式，擴大台灣台南科學園區聯電 Fab 12A P6 的產能。

The P6 expansion is scheduled for production in the second quarter of 2023, with total investment for the project earmarked at TWD 100 billion. In addition to UMC's previously announced 2021 CapEx of USD 1.5 billion, the bulk of which is allocated towards equipment for the company's Fab 12A P5 sites, adjacent to P6, total UMC investment in the Tainan Science Park will reach approximately TWD 150 billion over the next 3 years. The P6 program is supported by a multiyear's product alignment between UMC and the involved customers that includes a loading protection mechanism that will ensure the P6 capacity is maintained at a healthy loading level.

P6擴建預計於2023年第二季投產，專案總投資1,000億元新台幣。聯電先前公佈的 2021 年資本支出為 15 億美元，其中大部分分配給該公司毗鄰 P6 的 Fab 12A P5 廠區的設備，未來聯電在台南科學園區的總投資將達到約 1,500 億新台幣3年。 P6 計劃得到聯華電子與相關客戶之間多年產品協調的支持，其中包括負載保護機制，可確保 P6 容量保持在健康的負載水平。

We look forward to leveraging our #1 worldwide foundry market position in multiple areas, such as 28-nanometer OLED driver IC production, so we may further strengthen UMC semiconductor industry relevance and capture new market opportunities down the road.

我們期待利用我們在多個領域（例如 28 奈米 OLED 驅動器 IC 生產）的全球第一代工市場地位，因此我們可以進一步增強聯華電子半導體行業的相關性並抓住未來的新市場機會。

Now let's move on to the second quarter 2021 guidance. Our wafer shipments will increase by 2%. ASP in U.S. dollar will increase by 3% to 4%. However, the surging NT dollar headwind may potentially offset benefits on Q2 shipments increase in ASP growth. Gross profit margin will challenge 30%. Capacity utilization will be at 100%. Our 2021 cash-based CapEx will be budgeted at USD 2.3 billion, as Chitung mentioned earlier.

現在讓我們繼續討論 2021 年第二季的指導。 我們的晶圓出貨量將成長2%。美元平均售價將上漲 3% 至 4%。然而，新台幣飆升的逆風可能會抵消第二季度出貨量成長帶來的平均售價成長的好處。毛利率將挑戰30%。產能利用率將達100%。正如 Chitung 之前提到的，我們 2021 年基於現金的資本支出預算為 23 億美元。

That conclude my comments. Thank you all for your attention. Now we are ready for question.

我的評論到此結束。感謝大家的關注。現在我們準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Randy Abrams, Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯。

Okay. Congratulations on the results and margin improvement. First question, I wanted to ask on the capacity expansion. Could you discuss the amount of capacity for the Fab 12A Phase 5 with the CapEx raise? And also, how much capacity is planned for Phase 6 with the TWD 100 billion plan? And if there's a framework for total CapEx, if you also expect any spending to continue in China or other facilities, if there's a view the current year spend may continue around this level for the next couple of years?

好的。祝賀結果和利潤率的提高。 第一個問題，我想問關於擴容的問題。您能否討論一下 Fab 12A 第 5 階段的產能以及資本支出的增加？還有，千億新台幣計畫的第六期計畫容量是多少？如果有一個總資本支出框架，如果您還預計中國或其他設施將繼續有任何支出，是否認為今年的支出可能會在未來幾年繼續維持在這個水平附近？

So Randy, for P6 alone, the total CapEx is around TWD 100 billion. And it's likely -- the spending is likely to spread out through -- over the next 3 years. So starting from later part of this year, bulk of that in 2022 and also nearly 1/3 in the 2023. So that will be the key part of our CapEx over the next 3 years. And for the original budget of USD 1.5 billion, the bulk of that will go to the 10,000 wafer 28-nanometer capacity per month at P5. And that's already ongoing. And we are seeing the contribution earlier, maybe as early as next year.

Randy，僅就 P6 而言，總資本支出約為 1,000 億新台幣。而且支出很可能會在未來三年分散開來。因此，從今年下半年開始，其中大部分是在 2022 年，還有近 1/3 在 2023 年。對於最初的 15 億美元預算，其中大部分將用於 P5 每月 10,000 片晶圓 28 奈米產能。這已經在進行中。我們會更早看到貢獻，也許最早在明年。

As for Xiamen, we are also already reaching to the target -- closing to the target level of 25,000 wafer per month. And as you recall, it was about 17,000, 18,000 wafer by -- about the same time last year. But through the expansion, now it's close to the full capacity right now. So maybe, Jason, you want to add a few more?

至於廈門，我們也已經達到了目標——接近每月25,000片晶圓的目標水準。正如您所記得的那樣，大約去年同期，產量約為 17,000、18,000 片晶圓。但透過擴建，現在已經接近滿載了。傑森，也許您想添加更多內容？

I think the other data point is for the Tainan facility, after the P5, will be about 90,000 wafer capacity total for the Tainan site, the 12A. And by adding the P6, we'll be on top of the 90,000. So we are approaching about 120,000.

我認為另一個數據點是台南工廠，在P5之後，台南工廠12A的總產能約為90,000片晶圓。透過增加 P6，我們將達到 90,000 的上限。所以我們接近 12 萬人。

Okay, over 10,000 xP5.

好的，超過 10,000 xP5。

Right.

正確的。

Okay. So -- and to clarify, it's 90,000, so you have 10,000, P5; P6 is 20,000. So that brings it to 120,000. Okay.

好的。所以——澄清一下，它是 90,000，所以你有 10,000，P5； P6是2萬。這樣就達到了 12 萬。 好的。

And the second question, it gets back to the mechanism and this new expansion schedule. If you could talk on how the pricing and margins as you expand and grow the business with the new capacity. How would that impact relative to your current margins where they're getting about 30%? And if you could give an updated view that the depreciation was originally on that kind of nice downtrend in the next 2 years, but now you'll get more growth. But how does the depreciation profile change?

第二個問題，又回到了機制和新的擴展計畫。您能否談談隨著新產能的擴展和發展業務，定價和利潤如何。相對於您目前大約 30% 的利潤率，這會產生什麼影響？如果你能給出一個更新的觀點，即未來兩年內貶值最初處於那種良好的下降趨勢，但現在你會得到更多的成長。但折舊情況如何改變呢？

Well, I mean the -- without going to specifics about the actual pricing, I can update. The first is our disciplined ROI-driven strategy did not change. So this program would not affect that strategy. Starting in 2023, this program will support our topline growth, like you said, with multiple years of margin accretion. So this financially, we believe, is justifiable.

嗯，我的意思是——無需詳細說明實際定價，我可以更新。首先是我們嚴格的投資報酬率驅動策略沒有改變。所以這個計劃不會影響這個策略。從 2023 年開始，該計劃將透過多年的利潤成長來支持我們的營收成長，正如您所說。因此，我們認為，這在財務上是合理的。

As we stated earlier in the P6 press release, this P6 expansion will run at second quarter 2023. And in the meantime, the near-term downward depreciation trend remains unchanged. Even post 2023, UMC total depreciation as a percentage of revenue will be well controlled and managed. Mainly because after a few years our light CapEx depreciation rolled off together with our gross margin improvement, this effort will have strengthened our financial position to capture this market opportunity. So I think our customers also recognize part of the market structure changes. So they foresee this arrangement is meaningful to them, but also beneficial to them. Yes.

正如我們先前在 P6 新聞稿中所述，本次 P6 擴張將於 2023 年第二季進行。即使在 2023 年之後，聯電總折舊佔收入的百分比也將得到良好的控制和管理。主要是因為幾年後我們的資本支出小額折舊隨著毛利率的提高而下降，這項努力將增強我們的財務狀況以抓住這個市場機會。所以我認為我們的客戶也認識到部分市場結構的變化。所以他們預見這樣的安排對他們來說是有意義的，也是對他們有利的。是的。

Okay. And one last question. The blended pricing at start of the year was, I think, kind of a minimum plus 5%. If there's an updated view, with ASP up 3% to 4% in the second quarter, but also there's a lot of talk in the market there's further rounds with the capacity tightness. If you could give a view on pricing? And is there an initial view how 2022 if you're already contracting out and may see some movement up on pricing into next year?

好的。最後一個問題。我認為，年初的混合定價至少加了 5%。如果有更新的觀點，第二季平均售價上漲 3% 至 4%，但市場上也有很多關於產能緊張的進一步討論。您能否就定價發表意見？如果您已經外包，並且明年的定價可能會上漲，那麼 2022 年您是否有初步的看法？

We will continue aligning with our customers. From the recent market dynamics, our forecast for the full year ASP growth will be in the high single digit year-over-year now. And it could approach 10%. And the 10% of the pricing will also include our product mix improvement. And -- therefore, the current ASP lift mainly reflect the value of overall market position, but is more aligned to the market price and market position. So we see -- at this point we see the entire 2021, we'll be approaching about 10% year-over-year growth on ASP.

我們將繼續與客戶保持一致。從最近的市場動態來看，我們預測全年平均售價年增率將達到高個位數。而且可能會接近 10%。而這10%的定價也將包括我們產品組合的改進。因此，目前的平均售價提升主要反映整體市場地位的價值，但更符合市場價格和市場地位。因此，我們認為，在這一點上，我們預計整個 2021 年，平均售價將實現約 10% 的同比增長。

Okay. And is there any talk on 2022 yet? Or is that normally as scheduled, like -- or in second half? But are you starting early given the constraints?

好的。還有關於 2022 年的任何討論嗎？或者這通常是按計劃進行的，例如——或者是在下半場？但考慮到這些限制，你會提前開始嗎？

There are ongoing discussions, as I said earlier. We -- hopefully, we can wrap up not only just the pricing, also capacity support alignment early -- before mid of the year. And so that is still ongoing at this point.

正如我之前所說，討論正在進行中。我們希望，我們不僅可以在今年年中之前儘早完成定價，還可以儘早完成容量支援調整。所以目前這一切仍在進行中。

And the next question is coming from Bruce Lu, Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Bruce Lu。

Can you give us a little bit more color about your innovative business model for the new fab? Because -- I don't need any details. But the problem from the investor is when TSMC, who dominated in 28-nanometers global capacity, the Chairman is talking about double booking and oversupply in 28, and we are building additional 28-nanometer capacity. How can we ensure that the capacity, the newly added capacity is fully loaded? What kind of mechanism we can have? Or -- because we have seen so many long-term contracts in many, many industry and a lot of customers just don't honor the contract at the end of the day. So how can we ensure that we can get our desired return?

您能給我們更多介紹一下您的新晶圓廠的創新商業模式嗎？因為——我不需要任何細節。但投資者的問題是，當台積電在28奈米全球產能上佔據主導地位時，董事長正在談論28的雙重預訂和供過於求，而我們正在額外建設28奈米產能。如何保證產能、新增產能滿載？我們可以有什麼樣的機制？或者——因為我們在很多很多行業看到了很多長期合同，很多客戶最後都沒有履行合約。那我們要如何保證能夠得到我們想要的回報呢？

That's actually a very good question. And it can be a short answer and long answer. Let me see if I can maybe start off giving a bit of a background of this decision. The recent market dynamics lead to a supply-demand imbalance, as everyone knows, particularly in the mature node. Some of our peers in the market also mentioned about that, too. In the past few years, we have seen most of capacity expansion focused on advanced technology. However, the company did not significantly address the mature 12-inch and 8-inch capacity over a period of time due to a challenging market condition.

這實際上是一個非常好的問題。它可以是一個簡短的答案，也可以是一個長的答案。讓我看看是否可以先介紹一下這個決定的背景。 眾所周知，近期市場動態導致供需失衡，尤其是在成熟節點。市場上的一些同業也提到了這一點。在過去幾年中，我們看到大部分產能擴張都集中在先進技術上。然而，由於市場環境充滿挑戰，該公司在一段時間內並沒有大幅解決成熟的12吋和8吋產能問題。

Within those mature 12- and 8-inch nodes, there are many critical components that play the vital roles in the semi supply chain. Therefore, we believe this event have structurally changed our role and position as a foundry service provider. And I think our customers recognize that. And so at this time, this situation stopped providing us and our customer an opportunity to work closely. And we have to solve the supply shortage together in these mature node. So the behavior of this -- toward this agreement with the customer, is it different than just putting a track expert?

在這些成熟的12吋和8吋節點中，有許多關鍵組件在半成品供應鏈中發揮著至關重要的作用。因此，我們相信這一事件從結構上改變了我們作為代工服務提供者的角色和地位。我認為我們的客戶認識到這一點。所以在這個時候，這種情況不再為我們和我們的客戶提供密切合作的機會。而我們要共同解決這些成熟節點的供應短缺問題。那麼，這種行為——與客戶達成的協議，與僅僅聘請賽道專家有什麼不同嗎？

And we call this innovative win-win collaboration model because this arrangement is supported by multi years of product alignment. So this is a multiple years agreement between UMC and the customers. And under the alignment, there's also loading protection mechanism to ensure the capacity to maintain in a healthier loading level. So in other words, this P6 program is well protected with the commitment and obligation from both sides.

我們稱之為創新的雙贏合作模式，因為這種安排得到了多年產品一致性的支持。因此，這是聯華電子與客戶之間的多年協議。並且在對位之下，還有負載保護機制，確保容量保持在更健康的負載水準。所以換句話說，這個P6計畫受到了雙方的承諾和義務的很好的保護。

Now when you talk about the cyclical risk, this P6 only accounts about 10% to 15% of our operations. With or without the P6, the rest of other capacity offering will be more vulnerable to the industry's cyclicality. So I think the P6 program itself is set up well-protected. Our focus is more on the base of our capacity. And at this -- at the end of the day, our goal to protect our base capacity is we have to continue our relentless enhancement in the technology competitiveness and our manufacturing excellence and -- with the predictable yield stability, our service and the sizable capacity offering. So those are the fundamental solution to cope with the industry's cyclicality.

現在當你談論週期性風險時，這個P6只占我們業務的10%到15%左右。無論有沒有 P6，其餘的其他產能都將更容易受到產業週期性的影響。所以我認為P6程式本身設定得很好。我們的重點更放在我們的能力基礎上。歸根結底，我們保護基本產能的目標是，我們必須繼續不懈地提高技術競爭力和卓越的製造能力，以及可預測的產量穩定性、我們的服務和相當大的產能。所以這是應對產業週期性的根本解決辦法。

And so the bottom line, I think the P6 program itself is more well structured, well protected. And -- but the market ups and downs, it will happen. And -- but I -- from our current academic methodology, based on our best effort, we're seeing the demand-supply imbalance situation with those material will stay for some time. The conventional concern, inventory correction or the market ups and downs, probably won't happen within the 1 to 2 years. And -- but beyond that, we have to still go back to focus on our fundamentals. Yes. So that's sort of how we view about this.

因此，最重要的是，我認為 P6 程式本身的結構更加良好，受到更好的保護。而且——但是市場的起伏，它會發生。而且 - 但我 - 從我們目前的學術方法來看，基於我們的最大努力，我們看到這些材料的供需不平衡狀況將持續一段時間。傳統的擔憂，庫存調整或市場起伏，可能在一兩年內不會發生。而且 - 但除此之外，我們仍然必須回到關注我們的基本面。是的。這就是我們對此的看法。

So that create actually a bigger problem. For example, like 28, right, your covering capacity is like 50,000 to 60,000 wafers per month. So the additional 20,000 is well protected in 2022 onward, but the remaining 50,000 is not protected. So if the customer is having like capacity in both sides, they will fulfill the P6, but they can cut their orders on the P5 -- P -- the original previous 50,000 wafers per month capacity. Is that right?

這實際上造成了一個更大的問題。例如像28，對吧，你的覆蓋能力是每月50,000到60,000片晶圓。因此，從 2022 年起，額外的 20,000 人會得到很好的保護，但其餘 50,000 人則不受保護。因此，如果客戶雙方的產能相似，他們將履行 P6，但他們可以削減 P5 的訂單——P——原來每月 50,000 片晶圓的產能。是這樣嗎？

Yes. I mean -- so what I'm saying is from a competitiveness standpoint, the -- whether we have a P6 or P5, we have to deal with the same situation. And in order to protect or compete in that space, our competitiveness is not going to be based on this imbalance or even people talking about geopolitical or trade issue or so on and so forth. Our core competence will result from our focus in our addressable market segment and which we have been doing for the past few years.

是的。我的意思是——所以我所說的是從競爭力的角度來看——無論我們有P6還是P5，我們都必須處理同樣的情況。為了在該領域進行保護或競爭，我們的競爭力不會基於這種不平衡，甚至不會基於人們談論地緣政治或貿易問題等。我們的核心競爭力將源自於我們對目標市場領域的關注，以及我們過去幾年一直在做的事情。

We -- another simple word to put it is we're putting -- we focus on a selective market area within our addressable market segment. And we believe the retentive technology within that segment, and then we start aligning with the customer and strengthen our portfolio. And as a result, we actually start seeing a market gain on that as well. So we have to continue executing that and -- to protect the baseline.

我們——另一個簡單的詞就是我們正在投入——我們專注於我們可尋址細分市場中的選擇性市場領域。我們相信該細分市場中的保留技術，然後我們開始與客戶保持一致並加強我們的產品組合。結果，我們其實也開始看到市場收益。因此，我們必須繼續執行這項任務，並保護基線。

And so I think we march into the direction we feel comfortable. And we feel that we have been staying focused in a select area. We have been executed, and we've become more relevant. So at this point -- and we think that we just have to continue executing that. And the market risk just continues. And we don't have the confidence to say the market will never happen in this cyclical situation, but you have to prepare yourself to compete in that situation.

所以我認為我們會朝著我們感覺舒服的方向前進。我們覺得我們一直專注於選定的領域。我們已經被處決了，我們也變得更加重要。所以在這一點上——我們認為我們必須繼續執行這一點。市場風險仍在持續。我們沒有信心說市場永遠不會出現這種週期性情況，但你必須做好在這種情況下競爭的準備。

I see. Okay. One clarification for the P6 investment. You mentioned that ROE target or return-driven target is unchanged. But for me, it's like the current wafer price for the 28 cannot justify the return. How can that -- how can this P6 return be secure? Or how can we ensure that it will not be margin dilutive for this incremental revenue? Or how can we ensure that the incremental ROE is not diluted?

我懂了。好的。對 P6 投資的一項澄清。您提到ROE目標或回報驅動目標沒有改變。但對我來說，就好像 28 目前的晶圓價格無法證明回報是合理的。這怎麼可能——這個 P6 的回歸怎麼可能是安全的？或者我們如何確保增量收入不會稀釋利潤？或說如何保證增量的ROE不會被稀釋？

Because the current program has a pretty determined pricing for the P6 program. And based on that, the program not only support the top line growth, they also support our multi years of margin accretion.

因為目前的程序對 P6 程序的定價相當確定。基於此，該計劃不僅支持收入成長，還支持我們多年的利潤成長。

I see. I see. So this P6 wafer price will be different compared to your increasing 28-nanometer capacity?

我懂了。我懂了。那麼這個P6晶圓的價格與你們增加的28奈米產能相比會有所不同嗎？

It is different, yes.

這是不同的，是的。

I understand that. But can we disclose somehow the price premium?

我明白這一點。但我們能以某種方式透露溢價嗎？

No, we can't.

不，我們不能。

And the next question is coming from Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Firstly, for this new capacity arrangement. Could we talk a little bit about what level of enrollment do the customers have? Did you consider any potential co-investment from the customer? And any thinking on why you accept co-investment or why you don't accept any co-investment? Just wanted to understand that part.

首先，對於這次新的產能安排。我們可以談談客戶的註冊等級嗎？您是否考慮過客戶的任何潛在共同投資？您對為什麼接受共同投資或為什麼不接受任何共同投資有什麼想法嗎？只是想了解那部分。

And when we talk about ROI boundary, could we put some numbers around it so that will be clear for us to communicate to investors? Also, in terms of what is kind of like the ROI boundary that is kind of like a hard stop in terms of where UMC will not invest?

當我們談論投資回報率邊界時，我們是否可以在其周圍添加一些數字，以便我們能夠清楚地與投資者溝通？另外，就投資報酬率邊界而言，這有點像聯華電子不會投資的硬性停止點？

Well, first of all, the -- in addition to what I just mentioned earlier, has a predetermined pricing arrangement of P6. And there's also a guarantee to their commitment by committing to the capacity deposit as well as the loading protection, okay? So there is a structural mechanism to protect the P6 program. And I kind of highlighted earlier in the background of this current market situation because of market dynamics. So this group of customers is willing and recognize the possible structural changes, so they participated this with us jointly. So I will say this is a joint program between us and some of the key customers. And so the -- financially, based on that arrangement, we're not affecting UMC's -- the bottom lines and also provide UMC's top line growth.

嗯，首先，除了我剛才提到的之外，還有一個預先確定的 P6 定價安排。透過承諾容量押金和裝載保護，他們的承諾也得到了保證，好嗎？所以有一個結構機制來保護P6程式。由於市場動態，我之前在當前市場狀況的背景下強調了這一點。所以這群客戶願意並且認識到可能的結構性變化，所以他們和我們一起參與了這個。所以我想說這是我們和一些主要客戶之間的聯合計劃。因此，在財務上，根據這種安排，我們不會影響聯華電子的利潤，也提供聯華電子的營收成長。

And we have spent a lot of time discussing this, ensuring many of the data. And we both agree this is the right thing to do to solving the shortage issues and without affecting UMC's disciplined ROI-driven strategy. I can elaborate more about the specific ROI numbers, but I can tell you that under our Board of Directors review and our team's review, and we see the bottom line with the margin accretion, and that meets our -- it meets our financial targets. So -- and again, I also mentioned earlier, the -- with the P6 program, the near-term downward depreciation trend remains unchanged, even post the 2023 asset production start ramping. So we feel this is a well-structured program for us.

我們花了很多時間討論這個問題，確保了許多數據。我們都同意，這是解決短缺問題的正確做法，而且不會影響聯華電子嚴格的投資報酬率驅動策略。 我可以詳細說明具體的投資回報率數字，但我可以告訴您，根據我們的董事會審查和我們團隊的審查，我們看到了利潤增長的底線，並且滿足了我們的財務目標。因此，我之前也提到過，即使在 2023 年資產生產開始加速之後，隨著 P6 計畫的實施，近期貶值下行趨勢仍然保持不變。所以我們認為這對我們來說是一個結構良好的計劃。

Got it. Understood. Just one other question. Is there any change in terms of shipment outlook? I think you did talk about blended ASP being up maybe about 10% this year compared to previous. I think we're expecting a little bit more, like mid-single digits. Shipment growth or capacity growth outlook for this year, are we still roughly looking at 3% to 5% capacity growth this year? Or is it a little bit better now?

知道了。明白了。還有一個問題。出貨前景是否有任何變化？我想您確實談到了今年的混合 ASP 與往年相比可能上漲了 10% 左右。我認為我們的預期會更高一些，例如中個位數。今年的出貨量成長或產能成長展望，今年我們是否仍粗略看待3%至5%的產能成長？或者現在好一點了？

Yes. That capacity growth is the same for the year, yes.

是的。是的，今年的產能成長是相同的。

And the next one is from Roland Shu, Citigroup.

下一位來自花旗集團的Roland Shu。

First question out to Jason. Jason, in your prepared remark, you said the first quarter gross profit growth was partly reflects higher contribution from 28-nanometer revenue. So question is, how about the 28-nanometer gross margin compared to the corporate average in first quarter? Are we seeing a 28-nanometer gross margin above corporate average already?

第一個問題問傑森。 Jason，在您準備好的發言中，您表示第一季毛利成長部分反映了28奈米營收的更高貢獻。那麼問題來了，28奈米第一季毛利率與企業平均相比如何？我們是否已經看到 28 奈米的毛利率高於企業平均？

We don't give out any breakdown by node, okay? So the 28 becomes a meaningful node to us now and -- from both sides. They are both on the top line in our margin contributions.

我們不會按節點提供任何細分，好嗎？因此，28 現在對我們來說成為一個有意義的節點——從雙方角度來看。它們都位於我們的保證金貢獻中。

If I may, the 28 is actually compared to itself over the past few quarters. So the gross margin of current 28-nanometer is actually much better than the past few quarters.

如果可以的話，我實際上將 28 與過去幾個季度的情況進行了比較。所以目前28奈米的毛利率其實比過去幾季好很多。

Okay. Yes. Then how about the overall 8-inch and 12-inch gross margin? I think previously, you also said that 12-inch gross margin was below corporate average. Then after this price adjustment, how about your 8-inch and the 12-inch gross margin look like?

好的。是的。那麼8吋和12吋的整體毛利率又如何呢？我想之前您也說​​過12吋的毛利率低於企業平均。那麼這次調價之後，你們的8吋和12吋的毛利率呢？

Price adjustment is really a reflection of our market value. It comes from both absolute price increase as well as product mix increase. So it doesn't really change too much about the dynamic between 8-inch and 12-inch. And 8-inch, as you can understand that it represents much less -- carry much less depreciation. From an accounting point of view, the numbers are always higher than that of 12-inch. But if we're talking about EBITDA margin, then that may not necessarily be the case. So overall, we were happy with the progression that 12-inch, especially 28-nanometer, has improved from a profit margin point of view.

價格調整其實是我們市場價值的展現。它來自絕對價格上漲和產品組合增加。所以8吋和12吋之間的動態變化並沒有太大。而 8 英寸，你可以理解，它的代表要少得多——折舊要少得多。從會計角度來看，這個數字始終高於12吋。但如果我們談論的是 EBITDA 利潤率，那麼情況可能不一定如此。因此，總體而言，從利潤率的角度來看，我們對 12 吋（尤其是 28 奈米）的進步感到滿意。

Understood. Yes. And you also talked about that you're starting to ship 22-nanometer product because of customers' demand. So for this 28- to 22-nanometer migration, how about the margin or profitability change? Is this a 22-nanometer? Does that carry a much higher ASP and carry a better gross margin than 28-nanometer?

明白了。是的。您也談到，由於客戶的需求，您開始出貨 22 奈米產品。那麼，對於從 28 奈米到 22 奈米的遷移，利潤率或獲利能力變化如何？這是22奈米的嗎？與 28 奈米相比，它的平均售價是否更高，毛利率更高？

I mean, typically, we provide the blended gross margin number without breaking down by detail. So it's hard to pinpoint on each node. But I'd also like to add, the gross margin is a result not just the product mix, the 12-inch wafer shipment contribution, 8-inch pricing justification as well as the continued cost reduction effort and our productivity improvement. So this is more of a blended result on everything. And it's not just associated with 1 particular node or -- and -- or fab. So the -- we're happy that we start challenging the 30% in the upcoming quarters. I think given what we have done we are confident we'll continue to improve on that, too. Yes.

我的意思是，通常情況下，我們會提供混合毛利率數字，而不是按細節進行細分。因此很難精確定位每個節點。但我還想補充一點，毛利率不僅僅是產品組合、12吋晶圓出貨貢獻、8吋定價合理性以及持續的成本削減努力和生產力提高的結果。所以這更像是所有事情的混合結果。它不僅與 1 個特定節點或 - 和 - 或工廠相關聯。因此，我們很高興在接下來的幾季開始挑戰 30%。我認為，鑑於我們所做的事情，我們有信心我們也將繼續改進。是的。

Okay. Last question for me. I think a couple of months ago, you were comfortable of the total wafer supply. And have you changed your view recently due to this increasing wafer demand? So are you able to secure enough raw wafer from your suppliers?

好的。對我來說最後一個問題。我認為幾個月前，您對晶圓總供應量感到滿意。由於晶圓需求的增加，您最近是否改變了看法？那麼您能從供應商那裡獲得足夠的原始晶圓嗎？

Yes. We had that issue a while back, and we have been diligently working on that and closely aligned with our supplier in managing the supply assurance. So we haven't seen any problem right now. No.

是的。我們不久前就遇到了這個問題，我們一直在努力解決這個問題，並在管理供應保證方面與我們的供應商密切合作。所以我們現在還沒有看到任何問題。不。

Okay. So you have secure of the wafer. So how about for the wafer price change? Do you see a meaningful wafer price change recently?

好的。這樣你就可以確保晶圓的安全了。那麼晶圓價格變動如何呢？您最近有看到晶圓價格有有意義的變化嗎？

We see this pricing dynamics across the supply chain. And I can't tell you what's going to happen tomorrow. But at the current stage, with -- based on the alignment with our supplier, we're okay with the current pricing structure. Yes.

我們在整個供應鏈中看到了這種定價動態。我無法告訴你明天會發生什麼事。但在現階段，根據與供應商的協調，我們對目前的定價結構感到滿意。是的。

So do you see the pricing going up or...

那你看到價格上漲還是.....

I don't have that visibility going up at this point, but I don't know will that change tomorrow or not. Yes.

目前我的能見度還沒有提高，但我不知道明天會不會改變。是的。

And the next one is from Szeho Ng, China Renaissance.

下一位來自華興資本的Szeho Ng。

I have 2 questions. The first one regarding the 40-nano strategy. Because some of the 20-nano products have plans to go into the 40-nano, I'm not sure if UMC would start assessing the 40-nano expansion possibility?

我有 2 個問題。第一個是關於40奈米戰略。由於部分20納米產品有計畫進軍40納米，因此不知道聯電是否會開始評估40納米擴充的可能性？

Yes. The P6 program, the arrangement with option to migrate into 40, and the possible timeframe will be sometime in 2024, and -- but there's no plan before that. Yes.

是的。 P6 計劃，可以選擇遷移到 40 的安排，可能的時間範圍將是 2024 年的某個時間，而且——但在此之前沒有計劃。是的。

I see. Got you. And regarding the collaborative expansion with the customer that the comment we have some sort of a loading protection mechanism. So I just wonder how long would that protection clause last in general?

我懂了。明白你了。對於與客戶的協作擴展，我們有某種載入保護機制。所以我只是想知道該保護條款通常會持續多久？

It lasts entirety of the program. Yes.

它持續整個程序。是的。

And the next question comes from Charlie Chan, Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的陳查理。

And congratulations for a very strong results. So my first question is also regarding the P6 projects. So I saw some news flow, so just want to clarify. Is there any equipment consignment from customers? Can you clarify the point?

恭喜您取得了非常出色的成績。我的第一個問題也是關於 P6 專案的。所以我看到了一些新聞，所以我只是想澄清一下。有客戶委託的設備嗎？你能澄清一下這一點嗎？

No. The answer is no. There's no to consignment from customer. Customer will guarantee their commitment by providing the capacity deposit.

不，答案是否定的。沒有客戶寄售。客戶將透過提供容量押金來保證其承諾。

Okay. So is almost all from your balance sheet?

好的。那麼幾乎全部都來自您的資產負債表嗎？

Yes, it is.

是的。

Okay. So with that, do you need to increase the kind of debt ratio or do some fund raising to sponsor the future CapEx?

好的。那麼，您是否需要增加債務比率或籌集一些資金來支持未來的資本支出？

Yes. Our current cash on hand is about a little bit more than $100 billion as well, and we just announced this exchangeable bond project, which will likely to raise another USD 600 million for us by disposing our noncore assets. So I think from a financial standpoint of view, we even can maintain our current high dividend payout ratio in light of this new P6 project. So there is pretty much no impact on our financial structure.

是的。我們目前手頭上的現金也大約是1000億美元多一點，我們剛剛宣布了這個可交換債券項目，這可能會透過處置我們的非核心資產為我們再籌集6億美元。所以我認為從財務角度來看，鑑於這個新的P6項目，我們甚至可以維持目前的高股息支付率。因此，這對我們的財務結構幾乎沒有影響。

Okay. Since you don't -- so back to the P6 business. You mentioned that there are several type of demand, including OLED driver IC, wireless connectivity, setup box, TV, et cetera. So for that kind of P6 or kind of a long-term demand, which customer or which prototype is a major driver for this P6? How the demand comes from -- even if from the current project?

好的。既然你不這樣做——那麼回到 P6 的事情上來。您提到需求有多種類型，包括OLED驅動IC、無線連線、機上盒、電視等。那麼對於那種P6或那種長期需求，哪個客戶或哪個原型是這個P6的主要驅動力呢？需求是怎麼來的－即使是來自當前的專案？

Well, I mean, first of all, all of them are global leading semi companies. And I can't really name names. And the customers products and our technology roadmap has been well aligned. And it's also our existing customers. At the same time, those customers along with their demand outlook in their addressable market segments, in our view, will outpace the semiconductor industry projection. So it's in a high-growth area. And so we believe this is -- we're well-positioned program to secure the P6 capacity as well to fuel the future growth. Yes.

嗯，我的意思是，首先，它們都是全球領先的半導體公司。我實在叫不出名字。客戶的產品和我們的技術路線圖非常一致。這也是我們現有的客戶。同時，我們認為，這些客戶及其目標細分市場的需求前景將超過半導體產業的預測。所以它處於高成長區域。因此，我們相信，我們的計劃處於有利地位，可以確保 P6 產能並推動未來的成長。是的。

Okay. So it seems like the future demand came across for -- from the fitting customers, not as a single or few products. Is that right interpretation?

好的。因此，未來的需求似乎來自於合適的客戶，而不是單一或少數產品。這是正確的解釋嗎？

Yes. It's a multiple customer with multiple products, yes.

是的。是的，這是一個擁有多種產品的多個客戶。

Okay. And then my other question is about the trend of the 8-inch -- semi inch project migrate to 12-inch. I'm not sure if that is happening within your fab. But you see that trend of those, for example, large panel driver IC, power IC, sensors. Those products used to use the 8-inch as a major foundry source. But going forward, do you think that this may migrate to like a 12-inch? And maybe a year or 2 years later, do you think 12-inch is more efficient for those kind of speciality semi products?

好的。然後我的另一個問題是關於8英寸-半英寸項目遷移到12英寸的趨勢。我不確定您的晶圓廠是否正在發生這種情況。但你會看到大面板驅動IC、電源IC、感測器等領域的趨勢。這些產品曾經使用8英吋作為主要代工來源。但展望未來，您認為這可能會遷移到 12 英寸嗎？也許一年或兩年後，您認為 12 吋對於那些特殊的半產品來說更有效嗎？

Well, I mean, every application, the motive is migrating from 8-inch to 12-inch due to, like you said, the performance reason or cost advantage. So there is a continued product pipeline the -- within a different application, and -- including what you mentioned. And we continue to align with the customer on that. We don't see -- we don't observe any 8-inch demand overflow to 12-inch because the overflow because of 8-inch is high. And so we haven't really seen that. But we continue seeing that on a bi-application basis. And because the product performance reason, because the cost reason, and they continue migrating to a 12-inch. And even within the 12-inch, it will continue migrating into different nodes.

嗯，我的意思是，正如您所說，由於性能原因或成本優勢，每個應用程式的動機都從 8 英寸遷移到 12 英寸。因此，在不同的應用程式中存在持續的產品管道，並且包括您提到的內容。我們將繼續在這方面與客戶保持一致。我們沒有看到 - 我們沒有觀察到任何 8 英寸需求溢出到 12 英寸，因為 8 英寸的溢出量很高。所以我們還沒有真正看到這一點。但我們繼續在雙向應用的基礎上看到這種情況。而且因為產品性能的原因，因為成本的原因，他們不斷的向12英寸遷移。而且即使在12英寸範圍內，它也會繼續遷移到不同的節點。

Okay. Okay. Okay. So I think -- does that mean that 8-inch foundry supply shouldn't see a structural shortage? I mean because there is kind of alternative, right, to use that 12-inch. Is that a right alternative maybe?

好的。好的。好的。所以我認為——這是否意味著8吋代工供應不應出現結構性短缺？我的意思是因為有一種替代方案，對吧，使用 12 英寸。也許這是一個正確的選擇嗎？

I think the advantage 8-inch has is structural shortage issue. The demand continue being very strong. However, due to the market challenges on building a greenfield at 8-inch facility is very difficult, so we see that come online as not as fast as the demand growth. So we -- at least for the foreseeable couple of years, I think the 8-inch will remain challenged, and we're still under structural constraints. Yes.

我認為8吋的優勢在於結構性短缺問題。需求仍然非常強勁。然而，由於市場挑戰，新建8吋工廠非常困難，因此我們看到其上線速度不如需求成長速度。因此，至少在可預見的幾年內，我認為 8 英寸仍將面臨挑戰，而且我們仍面臨結構性限制。是的。

Okay. Yes. And last question, maybe back to Chitung. So can you help us to understand your gross margin trend into next few years? I know you don't give a next year margin guidance, right? But just based on management's comments just now, it seems to suggest that the P6 would then dilute your gross margin, even though the capacity is from your own balance sheet, right? So can you help me to understand why -- what will give you that confidence into next year's gross margin will continue to go up? Is that because of the further price hike or the older equipments depreciation going down? Because I feel like now you are running at 100% utilization already, right? So the benefits -- margin benefit from the higher utilization presently seems to be the answer to that. Can you help us to understand?

好的。是的。最後一個問題，也許回到七東。那麼您能幫助我們了解您未來幾年的毛利率趨勢嗎？我知道你們不會給出明年的利潤指引，對吧？但僅根據管理層剛才的評論，似乎表明 P6 會稀釋你的毛利率，即使產能來自你自己的資產負債表，對吧？那麼您能幫助我理解為什麼嗎？是因為價格進一步上漲還是舊設備折舊下降？因為我覺得現在你已經以 100% 的利用率運行了，對吧？因此，目前更高利用率帶來的利潤——利潤似乎就是這個問題的答案。你能幫助我們理解嗎？

Yes. First of all, we didn't say the gross margin will go up sequentially in 2022. We didn't say that. Okay? We say that gross margin is a collective effort of cost reduction, ASP reflecting the market and also product mix adjustment. So we are doing all of that. And hopefully, we can continue to improve our gross margin. But we will give our gross margin guidance quarter-by-quarter.

是的。首先，我們沒有說2022年毛利率會比上季上升。好的？我們說毛利率是成本降低、平均售價反映市場以及產品結構調整的集體努力。所以我們正在做這一切。希望我們能夠繼續提高毛利率。但我們將逐季給予毛利率指引。

And as for the P6, it's going to represent about 10% to 15% of overall operation and with a prefixed price and with ROI exempt target. So If we plug into our current base, that's -- the basic assumption to mention that we don't expect this P6 project will dilute our gross margin. And because it's going to be profitable from the very beginning, it's actually going to be adding driving force to our overall ROE performance.

至於 P6，它將佔整體營運的 10% 到 15% 左右，並且有固定價格和 ROI 豁免目標。因此，如果我們考慮到我們目前的基礎，那就是——基本假設是我們預計這個 P6 項目不會稀釋我們的毛利率。因為它從一開始就會獲利，所以它實際上會為我們的整體 ROE 表現增加驅動力。

Yes. So I remember last quarter, you gave us some depreciation trend, right?

是的。所以我記得上個季度，你們給了我們一些貶值趨勢，對嗎？

Yes. Depreciation trend wise, for 2021 and as well as 2022, we are still looking for somewhat less than 5% annual decline in the full year depreciation expenses. And beyond 2023, when the P6 numbers start to kick in, in the mid of 2023, the number still will be well under control, and the trend will not be reversed.

是的。從折舊趨勢來看，對於 2021 年和 2022 年，我們仍然預期全年折舊費用的年降幅略低於 5%。而到了2023年之後，當P6的數字開始發揮作用時，到2023年中期，這個數字仍然會得到很好的控制，趨勢不會逆轉。

Okay. Sorry. Sorry, I missed that. So one last one is auto semi production. I mean how much is the revenue contribution? I'm not sure why you start to disclose there that auto semi exposure, and I guess the global investors really are very keen to get your sense about when the auto semi output will go up from your side, and also, when do you think the shortage will ease?

好的。對不起。抱歉，我錯過了。最後一項是汽車半生產。我的意思是收入貢獻有多少？我不知道你為什麼開始在那裡披露汽車半成品的曝光，我想全球投資者確實非常渴望了解你對汽車半成品產量何時會從你這邊上升的感覺，而且，你認為什麼時候會增加汽車半成品的產量？

I mean the shortage right now is across the board, and we just have to work with our customers closely, and along with the productivity improvements as well as the new capacity expansion. The auto segment itself, we haven't really break it down in our pie. It's category under the others. So right now, others account about 11%. So for our automotive market, it's within numbers. Yes.

我的意思是，現在的短缺是全面的，我們只需要與客戶密切合作，提高生產力以及擴大新的產能。汽車領域本身，我們還沒有真正將其分解。它屬於其他類別。所以現在其他人大約佔11%。所以對於我們的汽車市場來說，這是在數字之內。是的。

And the next one is from Sunny Lin, UBS.

下一位來自瑞銀集團的 Sunny Lin。

And congratulations for your great results. My first question is also on your P6 expansion. I think you just put out a press release saying that the fab show has been completed, but the net production will only start from second quarter of 2023. So I wonder if that's because of the equipment supply constraint that we are now seeing in the industry? Or is there any possibility that the mass production could actually start earlier than expected?

恭喜您取得優異成績。我的第一個問題也是關於你的 P6 擴充。我想你們剛剛發布了一份新聞稿，說晶圓廠展示已經完成，但淨生產要從2023年第二季開始。 ？或是否有可能比預期更早開始量產？

Well, I mean we are working with our suppliers. And at this point, we'll see there's a lead time for the overall equipment. So we project the P6 already for production on second quarter 2023. That's what we're targeting. But we're still confirming with our supplier to ensure that, that would happen. So that's the current plan.

嗯，我的意思是我們正在與我們的供應商合作。此時，我們將看到整體設備的交貨時間。因此，我們預計 P6 已於 2023 年第二季投入生產。但我們仍在與我們的供應商確認，以確保這種情況會發生。這就是目前的計劃。

Got it. Maybe a follow-up to your 28 expansion. Since most of your capacity is built several years ago, and therefore, depreciation start to come down. If we compare the production cost for the new capacity versus your current capacity, I wonder if you could share with us any color in terms of the cost increase.

知道了。也許是你的 28 擴充包的後續。由於大部分產能是幾年前建成的，因此折舊開始下降。如果我們將新產能的生產成本與您目前的產能進行比較，我想知道您是否可以與我們分享成本增加方面的任何顏色。

Well, first of all, I don't think there's a cost increase. So once you reach to certain economic scale, the overall cost is actually coming down, so we don't -- (inaudible) in building a factory now compared to what we're doing in the capacity 6 years ago. It's higher. And it's actually -- in fact, it's actually lower, okay? And we -- in terms of the CapEx budget that we presented, we don't generalize this figure given that our P6 program has the flexibility that converting into a 22-nanometer as well as a 14. That was earlier question, if we consider a 14, and the answer is yes. So the entire program has certain flexibility converting that into the 14-nanometers. And so we want to make sure this -- when we plan this, we have that flexibility, okay? And so we can regenerate this figure to what 6 years ago. But in general, the current 28 cost is lower than what we built 6 years ago.

嗯，首先，我不認為成本會增加。因此，一旦達到一定的經濟規模，整體成本實際上會下降，所以與 6 年前的產能相比，我們現在不會（聽不清楚）建造工廠。它更高。事實上，它實際上更低，好嗎？就我們提出的資本支出預算而言，我們不會概括這個數字，因為我們的 P6 計劃具有轉換為 22 奈米和 14 奈米的靈活性。所以整個方案轉換成14奈米有一定的彈性。所以我們想確保這一點——當我們計劃這個時，我們有這種靈活性，好嗎？所以我們可以將這個數字恢復到 6 年前的水準。但總的來說，現在的28成本比我們6年前建造的還要低。

Got it. That's very helpful. My second question is on the overall supply-demand imbalance. And that's now I think driving several foundries to accelerate the CapEx for the trailing edge. So just want to get your sense if in the medium term this could lead to overexpansion or more volatility for the whole industry?

知道了。這非常有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於整體供需不平衡的問題。現在我認為這會推動多家代工廠加速後緣的資本支出。因此，我想了解一下，從中期來看，這是否會導致整個行業過度擴張或更大的波動？

I mean the -- I kind of touched this earlier as well. But once the newly capacity become available, we anticipate the supply imbalance issue will be addressed, okay? But nonetheless, the structural shortage in the material we think will remain unchanged until 2023, okay? Given the lead time consideration, okay? Based on our research and study, we don't even -- we think there's a good chance they won't have any excess capacity, okay? It's probably not likely to happen within the next 1 to 2 years, okay? In addition to that, consider the -- beside the lead time, capacity delivery lead time, and also the uncertainty of the geopolitical tensions, we have pretty good confidence this tightness will probably continue for at least 1 to 2 years.

我的意思是——我早些時候也觸及過這一點。但一旦新產能投入使用，我們預期供應不平衡的問題將會得到解決，好嗎？但儘管如此，我們認為材料的結構性短缺將在 2023 年之前保持不變，好嗎？考慮到交貨時間，好嗎？根據我們的研究，我們甚至認為他們很有可能不會有任何過剩產能，好嗎？未來一兩年內不太可能發生，好嗎？除此之外，考慮到交貨時間、產能交付交貨時間以及地緣政治緊張局勢的不確定性，我們很有信心這種緊張狀況可能會持續至少一到兩年。

The next question comes from [Stefan Chang], [Ellis Capital].

下一個問題來自[Ellis Capital]的[Stefan Chang]。

And I have 2 questions here. First is I'm just wondering, because we see for some (inaudible) technology, we already see clients have the semi product that they are using dual sourcing. I'm just wondering, if you look at the 28-nanometer now, do the clients usually use only 1 foundry for those production product or for the semi product clients would still use dual sourcing? This is my first question.

我這裡有兩個問題。首先，我只是想知道，因為我們看到一些（聽不清楚）技術，我們已經看到客戶擁有他們正在使用雙重採購的半產品。我只是想知道，如果你現在看看 28 奈米，客戶通常只使用 1 個代工廠來生產這些產品，還是半成品客戶仍然會使用雙重採購？這是我的第一個問題。

Well, I mean, this is -- there are several different perspective on this, okay? One is from a customer's perspective. If a customer believes they need a multiple sourcing strategy to ensure their supply, to ensure their supply came, and they have the design resources, I think the customer is capable to do so to enable multiple sourcing. If they perceive single-source will enable their supply assurance and result in double the design efforts, they probably don't need to. So one perspective is on the customers' perspective on the supply chain.

嗯，我的意思是，對此有幾種不同的觀點，好嗎？一種是從客戶的角度來看。如果客戶認為他們需要多重採購策略來確保他們的供應，確保他們的供應到位，並且他們擁有設計資源，我認為客戶有能力這樣做以實現多重採購。如果他們認為單一來源能夠保證他們的供應並導致設計工作加倍，那麼他們可能不需要這樣做。因此，一種觀點是顧客對供應鏈的看法。

And the -- on the design and the product specific, and that's a different consideration (inaudible) they're very customized. So they are very hard to have multiple source. So because the (inaudible) of the product, yes. So when you're talking about the advanced node, because we don't serve on the very leading edge node, so I can't really give you a comment about UMC specifically. But I can tell you as a general sense, design into an advanced node is very costly. So if you want to enable multiple source, that will be a very -- it will be a significant investment. So investment is one of the important factor here. Yes.

關於設計和產品的具體情況，這是一個不同的考慮因素（聽不清楚），它們是非常客製化的。所以他們很難擁有多個來源。所以因為產品的（聽不清楚），是的。所以當你談論高階節點時，因為我們不服務於非常前沿的節點，所以我無法具體給你關於UMC的評論。但我可以告訴你，一般意義上，設計到先進的節點是非常昂貴的。因此，如果您想啟用多個來源，這將是一項非常重大的投資。所以投資是這裡的重要因素之一。是的。

Yes. Yes. Understood. Actually, the question was, if your comment you just made all sort of tied to 28-nanometer?

是的。是的。明白了。實際上，問題是，您剛剛發表的評論是否與 28 奈米有關？

If you look at the 28 capacity, the -- I think most of the product, they'd be able to enable multiple source. I think -- as long as the customer wants to do it. There will be a -- there will be some differentiation on the technology side. For UMC, we have a few leading market position on some of the technology solutions. And for those, I think we're still ahead in the market. So we probably will enjoy better customer stickiness on that.

如果你看看 28 個容量，我認為大多數產品都能夠啟用多個來源。我想——只要客戶想做就好。技術方面將會出現一些差異。對於聯華電子來說，我們在一些技術解決方案上擁有一些領先的市場地位。對於這些，我認為我們仍然在市場上處於領先地位。因此，我們可能會在這方面獲得更好的客戶黏著度。

Understood. Another question is -- although just very quickly, so we understood that for the mature node, like 200 millimeters, 300 millimeters mature node, they are always (inaudible). But if you really need to do a comparison between the 2, do you see it is tighter or the bigger shortage in 200-millimeter or in 300-millimeter?

明白了。另一個問題是——雖然速度非常快，但我們了解到，對於成熟節點，例如 200 毫米、300 毫米成熟節點，它們總是（聽不清楚）。但如果你真的需要對兩者進行比較，你認為200毫米和300毫米是更緊還是短缺更大？

Well, it's -- this is an interesting question, okay. From our view, what we see, they're severely constrained on both the 200-millimeter as well as the 300-millimeter. But there's a possibility also the customer is a double booking on that to ensure they'd be able to secure supply. So how we're judging the overbooking is very difficult. But I can tell you, at this point, I think industry-wise, we are under severe shortage across the board on the mature node.

嗯，這是一個有趣的問題，好吧。從我們的角度來看，我們所看到的，它們在 200 毫米和 300 毫米上都受到嚴重限制。但客戶也有可能進行雙重預訂，以確保他們能夠確保供應。所以我們要如何判斷超賣是非常困難的。但我可以告訴你，目前，我認為從行業角度來看，我們在成熟節點上全面嚴重短缺。

Yes. So just a very quick follow-up on your last comment. So you mentioned about, probably due to a possible overbooking. But previously, you also mentioned you see the tightness will continue probably for another 1 to 2 years. So can we assume when you make the comments regarding supply tightness possibility, you already try to exclude the -- you already had to consider the possible overbooking?

是的。因此，我只是對您的上一條評論進行快速跟進。所以你提到的，可能是由於可能的超額預訂。但之前，您也提到您認為緊張狀況可能還會持續一到兩年。那麼，我們是否可以假設，當您就供應緊張可能性發表評論時，您已經嘗試排除 - 您已經不得不考慮可能的超額預訂？

Absolutely. I mean this is a planning 101. So we have to consider that. And we actually -- based on our research and study, we're actually going back all the way to the end market, entire pipeline in terms of the supply chain to analysis that. So I think that there's a few mega trends in this space driving the demand, from 5G smartphones, the automotive, EV adoption as well as the learn-from-home, work-from-home space. And so those demands are real, okay? So -- and if you look at the past years, there's lack of CapEx in the mature node space. So structurally, they're just not enough. And so that's why we believe, even with the P6 or even with any announced capacity today in the foundry space, we still believe this -- the structural shortage will probably remains.

絕對地。我的意思是，這是一個規劃 101。事實上，根據我們的研究和研究，我們實際上會一直回到終端市場，整個供應鏈管道來分析這一點。因此，我認為這個領域有一些大趨勢推動了需求，包括 5G 智慧型手機、汽車、電動車的採用以及在家學習、在家工作領域。所以這些要求都是真的，好嗎？因此，如果你回顧過去幾年，你會發現成熟節點領域缺乏資本支出。所以從結構上來說，它們還不夠。因此，這就是為什麼我們相信，即使有了 P6，甚至今天在代工領域宣布了任何產能，我們仍然相信這一點——結構性短缺可能仍然存在。

Ladies and gentlemen, we're running out of time, so we're taking the last question. And the last one is from Bruce Lu, Goldman Sachs.

女士們先生們，我們的時間不多了，所以我們來回答最後一個問題。最後一位來自高盛的陸小龍。

Okay. I have a question about ASP. For the first quarter, ASP as a blended base improved by 1.3% only and -- which is pretty much driven by like more 28-nanometer product mix improvement. So where is the price hike that market is talking about? I mean also for the second quarter, the capacity is growing by 4%, but (inaudible) growing by 3%. But I'm assuming that the new capacity addition is mainly for 28-nanometer capacity, which is supposed to have a much bigger or much higher ASP. The ASP guidance for second quarter is also like 3%, 4% only, which is, again, pretty much driven by 28. So as a like-to-like base ASP, do we see any improvement?

好的。我有一個關於 ASP 的問題。第一季度，混合基礎的平均售價僅成長了 1.3%，這很大程度上是由 28 奈米產品組合的改進所推動的。那麼市場所說的漲價到底在哪裡呢？我的意思是，第二季的容量成長了 4%，但（聽不清楚）成長了 3%。但我假設新增產能主要針對 28 奈米產能，產能應該有更大或更高的平均售價。第二季的 ASP 指引也只有 3%、4% 左右，這同樣是由 28 驅動的。

Well, there's (inaudible) the first quarter ASP growth was actually more than 3%, not 1 point something. So as I mentioned about -- some of that comes from price increase, so less than 3.2%. And some of that comes from product mix improvement. So overall, quarter 1 ASP growth was more than 3%.

嗯，（聽不清楚）第一季 ASP 成長實際上超過 3%，而不是 1 個百分點。正如我所提到的，其中一些來自價格上漲，所以不到 3.2%。其中一些來自產品組合的改進。總體而言，第一季 ASP 成長超過 3%。

I see. What is the ForEx assumption in first quarter? Because it's using like...

我懂了。第一季的外匯假設是什麼？因為它的用途就像...

ForEx was 2 -- 28.3. So there was a nearly 2% negative impact from ForEx.

外匯為 2 - 28.3。因此，外匯帶來了近 2% 的負面影響。

I see. Understand that. Understand. So for the second quarter, what is the ASP -- what is the assumption for the ASP expansion driven by the product mix improvement?

我懂了。明白這一點。理解。那麼第二季的平均售價是多少——產品組合改善推動平均售價擴張的假設是什麼？

Still similar. I would say both are key factors, which contribute nearly 50-50 each. So we normally don't give the detailed numbers, but you should expect to see a similar driving force for this 4% growth for quarter 2 in ASP.

還是相似的。我認為兩者都是關鍵因素，各自貢獻近 50-50。因此，我們通常不會提供詳細數字，但您應該會看到第二季 ASP 4% 成長的類似驅動力。

I see. Okay. Last question, I just did a very quick math for the P6 28-nanometer wafer price. It seems to me that you want to have a similar return. The wafer price for that 28 has to be like 50%-plus higher than the current market price. That seems too good to be true from my simple math. So is there anything I'm missing? Or is that math sounds correct?

我懂了。好的。最後一個問題，我剛剛快速計算了一下 P6 28 奈米晶圓的價格。在我看來，您也希望獲得類似的回報。這 28 個晶圓的價格必須比目前市場價格高出 50% 以上。從我的簡單數學來看，這似乎好得令人難以置信。那我有什麼遺漏的嗎？或者這個數學聽起來正確嗎？

I can't really comment on (inaudible) percentage, but there is a predetermined pricing arrangement with the customers. It's actually a very diversified customer portfolio. So it -- well, I mean the bottom line is the mechanism works. I mean the math work, okay?

我無法真正評論（聽不清楚）百分比，但與客戶有預定的定價安排。它實際上是一個非常多元化的客戶組合。所以它——嗯，我的意思是底線是機制有效。我的意思是數學作業，好嗎？

The math -- so my math work?

數學——那我的數學有用嗎？

So it's -- yes, I can't comment about the percentage of that.

所以，是的，我無法評論其中的百分比。

Basically wrong in one effect of the total ROI calculation. We also factor in the benefit of the economy of scale and also the cost reduction effort and et cetera, et cetera. The -- all the factors Chitung just mentioned. So again, it's a collective factor.

總投資報酬率計算的一項效果基本上是錯誤的。我們也考慮了規模經濟的好處以及降低成本的努力等等。吉東剛才提到的所有因素。再說一遍，這是一個集體因素。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, we thank you for all your questions. That concludes today's Q&A session. I'll turn it over to UMC Head of IR for closing remarks. Thank you.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，我們感謝你們提出的所有問題。今天的問答環節到此結束。我會轉交給 UMC IR 主管進行總結發言。謝謝。

Yes. Thank you for attending this conference today. We appreciate your questions. As always, if you have any additional follow-up questions, please feel free to contact UMC at ir@umc.com. Have a good day.

是的。感謝您參加今天的這次會議。我們感謝您的提問。與往常一樣，如果您有任何其他後續問題，請隨時透過 ir@umc.com 聯絡 UMC。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our conference for first quarter 2021. Thank you for your participation in UMC's conference. There will be a webcast replay within an hour. Please visit www.umc.com under the Investors' Events section. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，2021 年第一季的會議到此結束。一小時內將進行網路廣播重播。請造訪 www.umc.com 的「投資者活動」部分。您現在可以斷開連線。再見。