UBS Group AG (UBS) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome, everyone. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement slide at the back of today's results presentation. Please also refer to the risk factors included in our annual report, together with additional disclosures in our SEC filing. On slide 2, you can see our agenda for today. It's now my pleasure to hand over to Sergio Ermotti, Group CEO.

早上好，歡迎大家。在我們開始之前，我想提請您注意今天結果簡報後面的警告聲明投影片。另請參閱我們的年度報告中包含的風險因素，以及我們在 SEC 備案文件中揭露的其他資訊。在投影片 2 上，您可以看到我們今天的議程。現在我很高興將工作交給集團執行長 Sergio Ermotti。

Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. It has been a little over a year since the closing of the acquisition. We made significant progress and UBS continues to deliver on all of its commitments to stakeholders.

謝謝莎拉，大家早安。距離收購完成已經過去一年多了。我們取得了重大進展，瑞銀繼續履行對利害關係人的所有承諾。

Putting the needs of clients first during a challenging market environment has allowed us to maintain solid momentum while we fulfill our objective of completing the integration by the end of 2026. As a consequence, not only we have dramatically reduced the execution risk of the integration, we are also well positioned to meet all of our financial targets, and return to the level of profitability UBS delivered before being asked to step in and stabilize Credit Suisse.

在充滿挑戰的市場環境中，將客戶的需求放在首位，使我們能夠保持強勁的勢頭，同時實現 2026 年底完成整合的目標。財務目標，並恢復到瑞銀集團被要求介入並穩定瑞信之前的獲利水準。

I'm particularly proud to note that across the combined organization, our people are embracing the pillars, principles, and behaviors that drives UBS's culture. This includes client centricity and collaboration, and enable us to successfully manage risk and act with accountability and integrity. I'd like to thank all of my colleagues around the world for their dedication and hard work.

我特別自豪地註意到，在合併後的組織中，我們的員工正在接受推動瑞銀文化的支柱、原則和行為。這包括以客戶為中心和協作，使我們能夠成功管理風險並以負責任和誠信的方式行事。我要感謝世界各地所有同事的奉獻和辛勤工作。

Our second-quarter result contributed to a strong first-half performance, reflecting the strength of our client franchises and disciplined implementation of our strategy and integration plans. Reported net profit for the first half was $2.9 billion, with underlying PBT of $4.7 billion, and an underlying return on CET1 capital of 9.2%. We strengthened our capital position and maintained a balance sheet for all season with a CET1 capital ratio of 14.9% and total loss absorbing capacity of around $200 billion.

我們的第二季業績為上半年的強勁業績做出了貢獻，反映了我們客戶特許經營的實力以及我們策略和整合計劃的嚴格實施。上半年報告淨利潤為 29 億美元，基本 PBT 為 47 億美元，CET1 資本的基本回報率為 9.2%。我們加強了資本狀況，並維持了整個季度的資產負債表，CET1 資本比率為 14.9%，總損失吸收能力約為 2000 億美元。

Our parent bank is well capitalized even after withstanding the removal of significant regulatory concessions previously granted to Credit Suisse. As a result, we are executing on our 2024 capital return plans. And as I mentioned last quarter, we are committed to delivering on our mid- to long-term ambitions for dividends and buybacks.

即使取消了先前給予瑞信的重大監管優惠，我們的母行仍擁有充足的資本。因此，我們正在執行 2024 年資本回報計劃。正如我上季度提到的，我們致力於實現股息和回購的中長期目標。

Turning to the integration, we have captured nearly half of our targeted gross cost savings as we restructure our core businesses and wind down non-core and legacy where we have materially reduced risk-weighted asset over the last 12 months. As part of our derisking efforts, we have also made good progress addressing Credit Suisse's legacy legal issues, including the supply chain finance funds and Mozambique matters.

談到整合，隨著我們重組核心業務並逐步削減非核心業務和遺留業務，我們在過去 12 個月中大幅減少了風險加權資產，從而實現了近一半的總成本節約目標。作為我們去風險努力的一部分，我們在解決瑞士信貸遺留的法律問題（包括供應鏈金融基金和莫三比克事務）方面也取得了良好進展。

Following these intense months of execution during which we obtained more than 180 approvals from roughly 80 regulators in more than 40 jurisdictions, we completed the mergers of our parent and Swiss banks and transitioned to a single US intermediate holding company. This clears the way for the next set of critical milestones that will support the realization of further integration synergies.

經過這幾個月的緊張執行，我們獲得了 40 多個司法管轄區約 80 個監管機構的 180 多項批准，完成了母公司和瑞士銀行的合併，並轉型為美國中間控股公司。這為下一組關鍵里程碑掃清了道路，這些里程碑將支持實現進一步的整合協同效應。

But let me reiterate something you have heard me say before, we still have a lot of work ahead of us to address Credit Suisse' structural lack of sustainable profitability. While we are encouraged by the significant progress we have made across the group, the path to restoring profitability to the pre-acquisition levels won't be linear.

但讓我重申一下你以前聽過我說過的話，我們還有很多工作要做，以解決瑞士信貸結構性缺乏可持續盈利能力的問題。儘管我們對整個集團取得的重大進展感到鼓舞，但將獲利能力恢復到收購前水準的道路不會是線性的。

We are now entering the next phase of our integration, which will be key to realizing the further substantial cost, capital, funding, and tax benefits necessary to deliver on our 2026 financial targets. We are following through on our plans amid heightened uncertainties in the markets. These are the moments in which UBS proves its strength, resilience, and superior ability to serve and advise clients. This is reflected in the trust that our clients have placed in us every quarter since the close, with a total of $127 billion in net new assets.

我們現在正進入整合的下一階段，這對於實現 2026 年財務目標所需的進一步大幅成本、資本、資金和稅收優惠至關重要。在市場不確定性加劇的情況下，我們正在執行我們的計劃。在這些時刻，瑞銀證明了其實力、韌性以及為客戶提供服務和建議的卓越能力。這反映在我們的客戶自收盤以來每季對我們的信任上，淨新資產總額為 1,270 億美元。

We have also remained focused on our strategic objectives to enhance our client offering and leverage the breadth, scale, and synergies of our combined franchises. In the investment bank, I'm pleased by the client response to the strategic additions we have made to reinforce our capabilities and competitive position. The first-half performance is a positive signal that the investments are paying off.

我們也繼續專注於我們的策略目標，以增強我們的客戶服務並利用我們合併特許經營的廣度、規模和協同效應。在投資銀行，我很高興看到客戶對我們為加強我們的能力和競爭地位而進行的策略補充的反應。上半年的表現是一個積極的信號，表明投資正在獲得回報。

In global markets, we saw the highest second quarter on record. And in global banking, we have captured sizable market share gains. Importantly, we have achieved these results without compromising on our risk and capital discipline.

在全球市場，我們看到了有史以來最高的第二季。在全球銀行業，我們已經獲得了相當大的市場份額。重要的是，我們在沒有損害風險和資本紀律的情況下取得了這些成果。

We are also increasing collaboration across the firm as GWM clients continue to benefit from our IB products and capabilities. This drove the majority of wealth management expansion of client activity this year, particularly in the Americas and APAC.

隨著長城汽車客戶繼續受益於我們的 IB 產品和能力，我們也加強了整個公司的合作。這推動了今年財富管理客戶活動的大部分擴張，特別是在美洲和亞太地區。

Another example is our newly-created unified global alternatives unit, which combines our alternative investment capabilities across GWM and asset management. In fact, this is not just an internal cooperation, we are reshaping the competitive landscape by effectively creating a top five global player and limited partner with $250 billion in invested assets across hedge funds, private equity, private credit infrastructure, and real estate.

另一個例子是我們新成立的統一全球另類投資部門，它結合了我們在長城汽車和資產管理領域的另類投資能力。事實上，這不僅僅是內部合作，我們正在重塑競爭格局，透過有效地創建全球排名前五的參與者和有限合夥人，在對沖基金、私募股權、私人信貸基礎設施和房地產領域擁有2500 億美元的投資資產。

Unified global alternatives will offer our institutional, wholesale, wealth management clients a more comprehensive offering and enhanced access to exclusive co-investment opportunities. It will also provide general partners with a single point of access to the full distribution power of our firm. In asset management, we are offsetting margin compression by increasing operational efficiency, which is one of the key focus areas for the business.

統一的全球替代方案將為我們的機構、批發、財富管理客戶提供更全面的產品和更多獨家聯合投資機會。它還將為普通合夥人提供獲得我們公司全部分銷權的單點訪問權限。在資產管理方面，我們透過提高營運效率來抵銷利潤壓縮，這是業務的重點關注領域之一。

In Switzerland, we continue to enjoy the trust of our clients despite a very competitive and, at times, less than constructive environment. With around CHF30 billion in net new deposits in the last 13 months and approximately CHF350 billion of loans extended to clients, we continue to maintain our role as an important engine of credit. Since the acquisition, we granted or renewed around CHF85 billion of loans.

在瑞士，儘管競爭非常激烈，有時甚至缺乏建設性，但我們仍然贏得了客戶的信任。過去 13 個月新增淨存款約 300 億瑞士法郎，並向客戶提供約 3,500 億瑞士法郎的貸款，我們繼續保持作為重要信貸引擎的角色。自收購以來，我們發放或續約了約 850 億瑞士法郎的貸款。

Higher interest rates, the cost of increased regulatory and liquidity requirements, a changing macroeconomic outlook and, last but not least, the necessity to reprice some loans granted by Credit Suisse at unacceptable risk returns are having an impact on pricing of new credit. Of course, those are not always easy discussions to have with clients, but we are constructively engaging with them. And I believe the vast majority understand the rationale.

利率上升、監管和流動性要求增加的成本、宏觀經濟前景的變化，以及最後但並非最不重要的一點是，必須以不可接受的風險回報重新定價瑞信發放的部分貸款，這些都對新信貸的定價產生了影響。當然，與客戶進行這些討論並不總是那麼容易，但我們正在與他們進行建設性的接觸。我相信絕大多數人都明白其中的道理。

Switzerland is a key pillar of our strategy, and we are fully committed to maintaining our leadership. Swiss clients and the economy benefit from UBS' unparalleled competitive global reach and capabilities. In turn, our business is a unique differentiator when serving clients around the world. A testament of this symbiosis -- as a testament of the symbiosis, we were recognized by Euromoney as Switzerland's Best Bank for the 10th time since 2012, hence, the award best bank.

瑞士是我們策略的關鍵支柱，我們完全致力於維持我們的領導地位。瑞士客戶和經濟受益於瑞銀無與倫比的全球競爭影響力和能力。反過來，我們的業務在為世界各地的客戶提供服務時具有獨特的優勢。這種共生關係的證明——作為這種共生關係的證明，我們自 2012 年以來第十次被歐洲貨幣雜誌評為瑞士最佳銀行，因此榮獲最佳銀行獎。

As we continue our integration journey in the Swiss business, we believe it will be important to further communicate with all our stakeholders about our approach and strategy. To that end, in September, our Head of Switzerland, Sabine Keller-Busse, will present at our flagship Best of Switzerland Conference, which brings together investors and corporate clients.

隨著我們繼續瑞士業務的整合之旅，我們相信與所有利益相關者就我們的方法和策略進行進一步溝通非常重要。為此，我們的瑞士負責人 Sabine Keller-Busse 將在 9 月出席我們的旗艦最佳瑞士會議，該會議匯集了投資者和企業客戶。

Looking ahead and more broadly, ongoing geopolitical tensions and anticipation ahead of US elections will likely result in heightened market volatility compared to the first half of the year. In this environment, we have two key priorities. First, we must continue to help clients manage the challenges and opportunities that arise. Second, we must stay focused and not allow short-term market dynamics to distract us from achieving our ultimate goal, which is to continue to execute on the integration and invest strategically to position UBS for long-term value creation.

展望未來，更廣泛地說，持續的地緣政治緊張局勢和美國大選前的預期可能會導致市場波動性較上半年加劇。在這種環境下，我們有兩個關鍵優先事項。首先，我們必須持續幫助客戶應對出現的挑戰和機會。其次，我們必須保持專注，不要讓短期市場動態分散我們實現最終目標的注意力，即繼續執行整合並進行策略性投資，為瑞銀創造長期價值。

The management appointments we announced in the second quarter will enable us to continue to progress on this journey. At the same time, we can put even more emphasis on our priorities and prospects for sustainable growth, particularly in the Americas and Asia-Pacific. We are confident this will also help us to deliver better outcomes for our clients and the communities where we live and work. With that, I hand over to Todd.

我們在第二季宣布的管理層任命將使我們能夠繼續在這一進程中取得進展。同時，我們可以更加重視永續成長的優先事項和前景，特別是在美洲和亞太地區。我們相信，這也將幫助我們為客戶以及我們生活和工作的社區提供更好的成果。說完，我把任務交給托德。

Thank you, Sergio, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, we delivered strong underlying profitability and we made further progress in reducing costs and optimizing our balance sheet. Net profit in the quarter was $1.1 billion, our EPS was $0.34, and our underlying return on CET1 capital was 8.4%.

謝謝你，塞爾吉奧，大家早安。第二季度，我們實現了強勁的基礎獲利能力，並在降低成本和優化資產負債表方面取得了進一步進展。本季淨利潤為 11 億美元，每股收益為 0.34 美元，CET1 資本的基本回報率為 8.4%。

Throughout my remarks today, I'll refer to underlying performance in US dollars and make comparisons to our performance in the first quarter, unless stated otherwise. From the third quarter onwards, we'll revert to making year-on-year comparisons. As by then, the prior year period will fully capture combined performance post the Credit Suisse acquisition.

在今天的演講中，除非另有說明，我將提及以美元計算的基本業績，並與我們第一季的業績進行比較。從第三季開始，我們將恢復進行同比比較。到那時，上一年期間將完全反映瑞士信貸收購後的綜合業績。

Turning to slide 6, total revenues for the quarter reached $11.1 billion, with top-line performance in our core businesses holding up nicely from a strong first quarter, down 2% sequentially. Net interest income headwinds were partially offset by higher recurring fee income in our wealth and Swiss businesses, and by improving activity in IB Capital Markets.

轉向投影片 6，本季總營收達到 111 億美元，我們核心業務的營收表現較第一季的強勁表現保持良好，比上一季下降 2%。我們的財富和瑞士業務經常性費用收入的增加以及IB資本市場活動的改善部分抵消了淨利息收入的不利影響。

Revenues in our non-core and legacy business were positive in the quarter, albeit $0.6 billion lower versus an exceptional first quarter. On a reported basis, revenues reached $11.9 billion and included $0.8 billion of mainly purchase price allocation adjustments in our core businesses with an additional $0.6 billion expected in the third quarter.

本季我們的非核心和傳統業務收入為正，儘管與第一季的出色表現相比減少了 6 億美元。根據報告，營收達到 119 億美元，其中包括核心業務中 8 億美元的主要採購價格分配調整，預計第三季將增加 6 億美元。

Underlying operating expenses in the quarter were $9 billion, decreasing by 3%. Excluding litigation and variable and financial adviser compensation tied to production, expenses were also down 3% as we further progressed our cost-cutting and workforce management initiatives despite the intense integration agenda.

本季基本營運支出為 90 億美元，下降 3%。不包括與生產相關的訴訟、可變薪酬和財務顧問薪酬，儘管整合議程緊張，但隨著我們進一步推進成本削減和勞動力管理舉措，費用也下降了 3%。

At the end of the second quarter, we were about 3,500 fewer total staff compared to the end of the first quarter, and 23,000 or 15% fewer since the end of 2022. Integration-related expenses in the quarter were $1.4 billion, resulting in reported operating expenses of $10.3 billion. Credit loss expense was $95 million, driven by a small number of positions in our Swiss corporte loan book.

與第一季末相比，第二季末我們的員工總數減少了約 3,500 人，自 2022 年底以來減少了 23,000 人，即 15%。營運費用為103億美元。信貸損失費用為 9,500 萬美元，這是由我們的瑞士企業貸款帳簿中的少量頭寸造成的。

Our tax expense in the quarter was $293 million, representing an effective rate of 20%, helped by NCL's performance and the initial positive effects of completed legal entity mergers. In the second half of 2024, excluding the effects of any DTA revaluation, we expect the effective tax rate to be around 35%, mainly as expected pretax losses in legacy Credit Suisse entities can't be fully offset against profits elsewhere in the group.

我們本季的稅務支出為 2.93 億美元，有效稅率為 20%，這得益於 NCL 的業績以及已完成的法人實體合併的初步正面影響。到 2024 年下半年，排除任何 DTA 重估的影響，我們預計有效稅率將在 35% 左右，主要是因為傳統瑞信實體的預期稅前虧損無法完全抵消集團其他部門的利潤。

The tax rate could benefit if CL continues to perform better than expected. We continue to expect ongoing optimization of our legal entity structure to gradually support a return to a normalized tax rate of around 23% by 2026.

如果 CL 的表現持續優於預期，稅率可能會受益。我們仍然預計我們的法人實體結構將持續優化，以逐步支持到 2026 年恢復到 23% 左右的正常化稅率。

Turning to our quarterly cost update on slide 7, exiting the second quarter, we achieved an additional $900 million in gross cost saves when compared to three months earlier, bringing the cumulative total since the end of 2022 to $6 billion or around 45% of our total gross cost save ambition. We estimate that around half of these cost saves benefit our underlying OpEx, with the other half reinvested as planned in our technology estate as well as to offset increases in variable and financial adviser compensation tied to production.

轉向投影片7 上的季度成本更新，第二季結束後，與三個月前相比，我們額外節省了9 億美元的總成本，使自2022 年底以來的累計總額達到60 億美元，約佔我們成本的45%總成本節省的雄心。我們估計，大約一半的成本節省有利於我們的基礎營運支出，另一半將按計劃再投資於我們的技術產業，並抵消與生產相關的可變和財務顧問薪酬的增加。

To date, we've generated around $4 billion of net saves, primarily driven by NCL, which has shed around $3.5 billion of its 2022 cost baseline. Following the legal entity mergers, we now turn our focus to the critical client account and platform migration work planned for our core businesses.

迄今為止，我們已實現約 40 億美元的淨節省，這主要是由 NCL 推動的，該公司在 2022 年的成本基準中削減了約 35 億美元。在法人實體合併之後，我們現在將重點轉向為我們的核心業務計劃的關鍵客戶帳戶和平台遷移工作。

We started in the fourth quarter with GWM's booking hubs in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Luxembourg, followed thereafter by client account transitions in our Swiss booking center, which supports both GWM and P&C. Along with our ongoing cost efforts in non-core and legacy, these initiatives represent the most material drivers of future cost savings as we decommission technology systems, hardware, and data centers, while also unlocking further staff capacity.

我們從第四季開始在香港、新加坡和盧森堡設立長城汽車預訂中心，然後在瑞士預訂中心進行客戶帳戶遷移，該中心同時支援長城汽車和財產保險。隨著我們在非核心和遺留方面持續進行的成本努力，這些舉措代表了未來成本節約的最重要驅動因素，因為我們退役了技術系統、硬體和資料中心，同時也釋放了更多的員工能力。

As I highlighted last quarter, the pace of saves is expected to moderately decelerate from the quarterly run rates observed over the last several quarters, while we prepare for and initially undertake these significant integration activities. We expect to pick up the pace as we implement these transitions throughout 2025 and into 2026, particularly benefiting the cost income ratios of GWM and P&C. The rate at which we are incurring integration-related expenses, which front-run underlying OpEx saves, is also indicative of the headway we're making on costs.

正如我在上個季度強調的那樣，在我們準備並初步開展這些重大整合活動的同時，預計節省速度將比過去幾季觀察到的季度運行率略有放緩。我們預計在 2025 年和 2026 年實施這些轉型時會加快步伐，特別有利於長城汽車和財產保險的成本收入比。我們產生的與整合相關的費用（預先運行的基礎營運支出節省了費用）的比率也表明了我們在成本方面取得的進展。

In the second half, we expect to book $2.3 billion of integration-related expenses, of which $1.1 billion in the third quarter. By the end of this year, we expect to have incurred around 70% of total cost to achieve our 2026 exit rate efficiency targets.

下半年，我們預計將記入 23 億美元的整合相關費用，其中第三季為 11 億美元。到今年年底，我們預計將花費約 70% 的總成本來實現 2026 年退出率效率目標。

Moving to our balance sheet, in the second quarter, we reduced risk-weighted assets by a further $15 billion, of which $8 billion from the active rundown of positions in our non-core and legacy portfolio, which I will come back to shortly. Over $8 billion of the decline we've seen across the core business divisions, mainly resulting from the financial resource optimization work in GWM and P&C.

轉向我們的資產負債表，第二季我們又減少了 150 億美元的風險加權資產，其中 80 億美元來自我們的非核心和遺留投資組合的主動減倉，我很快就會談到這一點。我們看到核心業務部門的下降超過 80 億美元，這主要是由於長城汽車和財產保險的財務資源優化工作所造成的。

As I highlighted earlier in the year, this work is addressing sub-hurdle returns on capital deployed, including by reducing deposit and loan volumes. The upshot is additional capacity to absorb headwinds from regulatory and risk methodology changes, model harmonization between the two banks, and the implementation of Basel III final, now confirmed for January 2025.

正如我在今年稍早強調的那樣，這項工作正在解決所部署資本的次障礙回報問題，包括減少存款和貸款量。其結果是增強了吸收監管和風險方法變化、兩家銀行之間的模型協調以及巴塞爾協議 III 最終版（現已確認將於 2025 年 1 月實施）帶來的阻力的能力。

While we continue active dialogue with our supervisor on various aspects of the final rules, at present, we continue to expect the day one impact of Basel III final to be around 5% of RWA, driven mainly by FRTB. We'll update our estimates by no later than the fourth quarter as requirements firm.

雖然我們繼續與主管就最終規則的各個方面進行積極對話，但目前，我們仍然預計巴塞爾 III 最終規則的第一天影響將達到 RWA 的 5% 左右，這主要是由 FRTB 推動的。我們將在第四季度之前根據需求確定更新我們的估計。

Our leverage ratio denominator decreased by $35 billion in the quarter. This reduction was driven by several factors, including full repayment of the central bank ELA facility granted to Credit Suisse, lower lending volumes mainly from our financial resource optimization efforts and the active rundown of our NCL portfolio. We ended the second quarter with an LCR of 212%, reflecting the LOE payment and TLAC of $198 billion.

本季我們的槓桿率分母減少了 350 億美元。這一減少是由多種因素推動的，包括全額償還央行授予瑞士信貸的 ELA 貸款、主要由於我們的金融資源優化工作以及我們的 NCL 投資組合的積極縮減而導致的貸款量下降。第二季末，我們的 LCR 為 212%，反映出 LOE 付款和 TLAC 為 1,980 億美元。

Turning to slide 9, our CET1 capital ratio as of quarter end was 14.9%. The numerator reflects accruals of this year's expected dividend and a reserve for 2024 for share repurchases, of which we have executed $467 million of the planned $1 billion as of last Friday.

轉向投影片 9，截至季末我們的 CET1 資本比率為 14.9%。分子反映了今年預期股息的應計額和 2024 年股票回購準備金，截至上週五，我們已執行了 10 億美元計劃中的 4.67 億美元。

Additionally, our CET1 capital includes all relevant portions of the purchase price allocation adjustments made to Credit Suisse's equity as of the acquisition paid last June. With the 12-month measurement period now concluded, total PPA adjustments against the purchased equity of Credit Suisse amounted to negative $26.5 billion, of which about 70% reduced CET1 capital.

此外，我們的 CET1 資本包括自去年 6 月支付的收購起對瑞士信貸股權進行的購買價格分配調整的所有相關部分。隨著 12 個月的衡量期現已結束，針對瑞信購買的股權的 PPA 調整總額為負 265 億美元，其中 CET1 資本減少了約 70%。

Following completion of the parent bank merger earlier in the quarter, next week, we'll report UBS AG's consolidated and stand-alone capital ratios and other information for the first time on a combined basis. UBS AG's stand-alone CET1 capital ratio at quarter end is expected at 13.5% on a fully applied basis.

在本季早些時候完成母行合併後，下週，我們將首次綜合報告瑞銀集團的合併和獨立資本比率以及其他資訊。在完全適用的基礎上，瑞銀集團截至季末的獨立 CET1 資本比率預計為 13.5%。

To put this capital ratio in perspective, it's important to compare the way we manage our parent bank capital versus Credit Suisse's pre-acquisition practices. We provide for the complete transition of the risk-weight rule changes applicable to UBS AG subsidiary investments, which overall are valued prudently. Moreover, we don't depend on any affiliate valuation concession from the regulator.

為了正確看待這個資本比率，有必要將我們管理母行資本的方式與瑞信收購前的做法進行比較。我們規定了適用於 UBS AG 子公司投資的風險權重規則變更的完全過渡，這些投資總體上是審慎估值的。此外，我們不依賴監管機構的任何附屬公司估值讓步。

This was not the case with Credit Suisse before the takeover where its approach overstated the parent bank's resilience and ultimately limited restructuring optionality. In this context, our merged parent bank already provides for around $20 billion of additional capital resulting from the acquisition, including the progressive add-ons from growth in balance sheet and market share that will be phased in over five years starting 2026. The result is a parent bank capital buffer of around 100 basis points above the current fully applied requirement by 2030.

瑞信在收購前的情況並非如此，其做法誇大了母行的韌性，最終限制了重組的選擇。在此背景下，我們合併後的母行已經透過收購提供了約200 億美元的額外資本，包括資產負債表和市場份額增長帶來的逐步附加資本，這些附加資本將從2026 年開始的五年內分階段實施。

Moving to our business divisions and starting with global wealth management on slide 10, GWM's pretax profit was $1.2 billion on revenues of $5.8 billion, which were up 3% year over year on an estimated combined basis. Against the complex economic backdrop, clients sought our differentiated advice and solutions as evidenced by continued strong momentum in net new asset inflows and transactional activity.

轉向我們的業務部門，從幻燈片 10 上的全球財富管理開始，長城汽車的稅前利潤為 12 億美元，收入為 58 億美元，預計合併後將年增 3%。在複雜的經濟背景下，客戶尋求我們的差異化建議和解決方案，新資產淨流入和交易活動持續強勁的勢頭證明了這一點。

Overall, we generated $27 billion of net new assets, a growth rate of 2.7%, with positive inflows across all regions. I'm particularly pleased with this result, considering the variety of headwinds to net new asset growth that the business successfully navigated in the quarter, including around $6 billion in seasonal tax outflows in the US.

總體而言，我們創造了 270 億美元的淨新資產，成長率為 2.7%，所有地區都有正流入。考慮到該業務在本季成功應對的新資產淨成長面臨的各種阻力，包括美國約 60 億美元的季節性稅收流出，我對這一結果感到特別滿意。

Let me unpack this further. To date, we've retained the vast majority of Credit Suisse's invested assets, notwithstanding that more than 40% of Credit Suisse's wealth advisers have left since October 2022. I would also note that these relationship managers advised on only 20% of assets, meaning that, overall, we've retained the more productive Credit Suisse advisers, a testament to the appeal of our platform. We've also kept around 80% of the first large wave of maturing fixed-term deposits from last year's win-back campaign with the maturities expected in the third quarter.

讓我進一步解開這個問題。到目前為止，我們保留了瑞士信貸的絕大多數投資資產，儘管自2022 年10 月以來瑞士信貸超過40% 的財富顧問已經離職。建議，這意味著總的來說，我們保留了更有效率的瑞士信貸顧問，證明了我們平台的吸引力。我們也保留了去年贏回活動中第一批到期定期存款的約80%，預計在第三季到期。

Furthermore, we made progress this quarter in our efforts to increase profitability on sub hurdle relationships. Higher returns come from both driving increased platform revenue and proactively exiting subpar loans. With these actions in the quarter boosting the revenue over RWA margin by around 30 basis points sequentially. Lastly, from a macro standpoint, the equity capital markets, and in particular, IPO activity, ordinarily a significant driver of wealth creation and net new asset generation, have only recently started to recover. These dynamics underscore the basis of our short-term annual guidance of $100 billion for 2024 and 2025, and equally, the resilience of our net new asset achievement in the quarter as well as the high level of client conviction in our advice and solutions.

此外，本季我們在提高次級障礙關係獲利能力方面取得了進展。更高的回報來自於推動平台收入的增加和主動退出低於標準的貸款。透過本季的這些行動，營收相對 RWA 利潤率連續提高了約 30 個基點。最後，從宏觀角度來看，股權資本市場，特別是IPO活動，通常是財富創造和淨新資產產生的重要驅動力，但最近才開始復甦。這些動態強調了我們 2024 年和 2025 年 1000 億美元的短期年度指導的基礎，同樣也強調了我們本季度淨新資產成就的彈性以及客戶對我們的建議和解決方案的高度信任。

Now on to the details of GWM's financial performance. Revenues declined 2% sequentially and as lower NII and the expected sequential drop in transactional activity were partially offset by growth in recurring net fee income, supported by higher average levels of fee-generating assets. Net interest income decreased by 2% sequentially to $1.6 billion, driven by ongoing deposit mix shifts and declining loan volumes, partly offset by our repricing actions, which, as mentioned, support higher returns on capital and net interest margin.

現在詳細介紹長城汽車的財務表現。收入環比下降 2%，NII 下降和交易活動預期環比下降部分被經常性淨費用收入的增長所抵消，而費用產生資產的平均水平較高。由於持續的存款結構變化和貸款量下降，淨利息收入環比下降2%，至16 億美元，但我們的重新定價行動部分抵消了這一影響，如上所述，這支持了更高的資本回報率和淨息差。

Looking towards year-end, we maintain our previous guidance that full year 2024 NII will be roughly flat versus 4Q '23 annualized. This includes a low to mid-single-digit percentage sequential drop in the third quarter driven by a decrease in, mix shifts in anticipation of falling rates and the impact on our replication portfolios. In arriving at this outlook and in light of recent rate volatility, we're modeling 100 basis points of dollar policy rate reductions by the end of 2024.

展望年底，我們維持先前的指引，即 2024 年全年 NII 將與 2023 年第四季的年化值大致持平。這包括第三季低至中個位數百分比的環比下降，這是由於利率下降預期的混合變化減少以及對我們的複製投資組合的影響所致。在得出這一前景時，並考慮到近期的利率波動，我們預測到 2024 年底美元政策利率將降低 100 個基點。

The outlook for net interest income in our US wealth business is expected to be influenced by competitive dynamics affecting the pricing of sweep deposits. By the middle of 4Q '24 we intend to adjust the sweep deposit rates in our US Advisory accounts, which, net of offsetting factors, are expected to reduce pretax profits by around $50 million annually.

我們美國財富業務的淨利息收入前景預計將受到影響分期存款定價的競爭動態的影響。到 24 年第四季中期，我們打算調整美國諮詢帳戶的掃除存款利率，扣除抵銷因素後，預計每年稅前利潤將減少約 5,000 萬美元。

Looking across our wealth business beyond year-end, we expect an inflection point in GWM net interest income around the time implied forwards reach a structural floor and stabilize, and clients begin to releverage driving loan balances and NII higher. Moreover, it's essential to consider that GWM's diversified and CIO-driven fee-generating business model has proven both its appeal to clients and ability to drive profitable growth even during past periods of low or negative interest rates. Consequently, in addition to increased lending, it's reasonable to expect that lower interest rates will spur increased transactional activity, mandate sales and investments in alternatives across our wealth business.

綜觀年底之後的財富業務，我們預計，當隱含遠期合約達到結構性底線並穩定下來時，長城汽車淨利息收入將出現拐點，客戶開始重新利用槓桿，推動貸款餘額和NII走高。此外，必須考慮的是，長城汽車的多元化和首席資訊長驅動的收費業務模式已經證明了其對客戶的吸引力和推動盈利增長的能力，即使在過去的低利率或負利率時期也是如此。因此，除了增加貸款外，我們有理由預期較低的利率將刺激交易活動的增加，促進我們財富業務中另類產品的銷售和投資。

Recurring net fee income increased by 3% to $3.1 billion from higher client balances. Net sales in our UBS managed account offerings showed continued momentum, contributing to a sequentially higher recurring net fee margin in the quarter. Transaction-based revenues decreased quarter-on-quarter to $1.1 billion, but notably increased around 14% year-on-year on an estimated combined basis, with APAC up around 30% and the Americas up over 20% and broadly flat sequentially versus a strong first quarter. Both regions performed exceptionally well in structured products, as clients sought customized investment opportunities in an environment of low volatility, high interest rates and continued global tech appeal.

由於客戶餘額增加，經常性淨費用收入增加了 3%，達到 31 億美元。我們的瑞銀管理帳戶產品的淨銷售額顯示出持續的成長勢頭，導致本季經常性淨費用利潤率連續上升。基於交易的收入環比下降至 11 億美元，但預計合併後同比顯著增長 14% 左右，其中亞太地區增長約 30%，美洲增長超過 20%，與上一季基本持平。這兩個地區在結構性產品方面表現異常出色，因為客戶在低波動性、高利率和持續的全球科技吸引力的環境中尋求客製化投資機會。

I would also highlight that our investments in combining GWM and IB markets and solutions capabilities in the are paying off, as evidenced by our transactional revenue performance over the first half of the year, up around 20% versus the same period in 2023. Expenses were roughly flat quarter-on-quarter. Excluding compensation-related effects, underlying operating expenses dropped 2% sequentially. As highlighted earlier, the upcoming client account migration work is expected to be a significant driver of cost reductions in GWM throughout 2025 and into 2026.

我還想強調的是，我們在合併GWM 和IB 市場以及解決方案能力方面的投資正在獲得回報，今年上半年我們的交易收入表現就證明了這一點，與2023 年同期相比增長了約20% 。排除與薪酬相關的影響，基本營運費用較上季下降 2%。如前所述，即將進行的客戶帳戶遷移工作預計將成為 2025 年至 2026 年長城汽車成本削減的重要推動力。

Turning to Personal & Corporate Banking on Slide 11. P&C delivered a second quarter pretax profit of CHF 645 million. Revenues were down 4% sequentially driven by an 8% decline in net interest income that was partly offset with increases in recurring net fees and transaction-based revenues. P&C's NII in the quarter was primarily affected by higher liquidity costs,and the SMB's 25 basis point interest rate cut from March as we kept our Swiss clients deposit pricing unchanged.

轉向幻燈片 11 上的個人和企業銀行業務。由於淨利息收入下降 8%，收入環比下降 4%，但經常性淨費用和基於交易的收入的增加部分抵消了這一下降。 P&C 本季的 NII 主要受到流動性成本上升以及 SMB 自 3 月以來降息 25 個基點的影響，因為我們保持瑞士客戶的存款定價不變。

In the third quarter, we expect NII to tick down sequentially by a low single-digit percentage, mainly due to the effects of the SMB's second 25 basis point rate cut from late June. In US dollar terms, we expect NII to be roughly flat sequentially. Despite these effects as well as higher costs related to SMB's move earlier in the quarter to raise minimum reserve requirements, we nevertheless reaffirm our full year 2024 guidance of mid- to high single-digit percentage decline versus 4Q '23 annualized, supported by our balance sheet actions. In arriving at this outlook we are currently pricing in up to 2 further Swiss franc policy rate reductions of 25 basis points each by the end of 2024.

我們預計第三季NII將環比下降個位數百分比，這主要是由於中小企業自6月底以來第二次降息25個基點的影響。以美元計算，我們預計NII將大致持平。儘管存在這些影響以及中小型企業在本季度早些時候提高最低準備金要求所帶來的更高成本，但我們仍然重申我們的2024 年全年指引，即與2023 年第四季度年率相比出現中高個位數百分比下降，這得到了我們餘額的支持表動作。在達成這項前景時，我們目前預計到 2024 年底，瑞士法郎政策利率將進一步下調 2 次，每次 25 個基點。

Assuming Swiss franc interest rates stabilize next year as the forward rate curve presently implies, we expect shortly thereafter to see steady volumes and an inflection point in P&C's net interest income. We also expect by then that our balance sheet optimization work will be largely complete, with reflecting a more appropriate cost of risk across the Swiss credit book. These efforts are necessary to restore returns on capital deployed and net interest margin in our Swiss business to pre-acquisition levels.

假設瑞士法郎利率明年如遠期利率曲線目前所暗示的那樣穩定，我們預計不久後將看到財產險的淨利息收入穩定且出現轉折點。我們也預期到那時我們的資產負債表優化工作將基本完成，並反映整個瑞士信貸帳簿的更合適的風險成本。這些努力對於將我們瑞士業務的資本回報率和淨息差恢復到收購前的水平是必要的。

In this respect, we saw net new lending outflows of CHF 3.4 billion this quarter, driven by repricing of sub-hurdle volumes despite having renewed or granted new loans to our Swiss clients of around CHF 30 billion in 2Q. Transaction-based revenues were up 2%, mainly from higher credit card usage. Recurring net fee income gained 3% on higher custody assets. Together, these non-NII revenue lines, up 2%, demonstrate the business' effectiveness in staying close to clients and minimizing merger dissynergies.

在這方面，儘管第二季度向瑞士客戶續簽或發放了約 300 億瑞士法郎的新貸款，但受次級門檻數量重新定價的推動，本季度新貸款淨流出為 34 億瑞士法郎。基於交易的收入成長了 2%，主要得益於信用卡使用量的增加。由於託管資產增加，經常性淨費用收入增加了 3%。這些非 NII 收入總計成長了 2%，證明了該公司在與客戶保持密切聯繫和最大限度地減少合併不協同效應方面的有效性。

Credit loss expense was CHF 92 million, driven by a small number of positions in our corporate loan book, as I mentioned earlier. Even with the increased focus on risk-based pricing for maturing loan positions, our Swiss credit portfolio remains a very high quality with an impaired loan ratio of 1.1%, down sequentially, albeit up versus pre Credit Suisse acquisition levels. For the foreseeable future, we expect CLE to remain at broadly similar levels given increased book size post merger, the relative strength of the Swiss franc and some economic softness in the main Swiss export markets.

正如我之前提到的，信用損失費用為 9,200 萬瑞士法郎，這是由我們公司貸款帳簿中的少量頭寸造成的。儘管越來越關注到期貸款頭寸的基於風險的定價，我們的瑞士信貸投資組合仍然保持著很高的質量，減值貸款比率為 1.1%，環比下降，但高於瑞信收購前的水平。在可預見的未來，鑑於合併後帳面規模的增加、瑞士法郎的相對強勢以及瑞士主要出口市場的經濟疲軟，我們預計 CLE 將保持在大致相似的水平。

Operating expenses were flat sequentially. Similar to GWM, future cost reductions in P&C will be closely tied to the client account and platform migration work for booking center Switzerland, planned to commence by the second quarter of 2025.

營運費用較上季持平。與長城汽車類似，未來財產險成本的降低將與瑞士預訂中心的客戶帳戶和平台遷移工作密切相關，計劃於 2025 年第二季開始。

On Slide 12, pretax profit in Asset Management increased 26% to $228 million. This quarter's results included a gain of $28 million from the initial portion of the sale of our Brazilian real estate fund management business. In the third quarter, we expect to record an additional $60 million in underlying pretax profit on gains from disposals, mainly from closing the residual portions of this transaction. Net new money was negative $12 billion, with continued client demand for our SMA offering in the US and positive contribution from our China JVs, only partly compensating outflows across asset classes, particularly equities.

在投影片 12 中，資產管理業務的稅前利潤成長了 26%，達到 2.28 億美元。本季的業績包括出售巴西房地產基金管理業務的初始部分帶來的 2,800 萬美元收益。在第三季度，我們預計將透過處置收益額外獲得 6,000 萬美元的基本稅前利潤，主要來自於完成該交易的剩餘部分。淨新資金為負 120 億美元，客戶對我們在美國的 SMA 產品的持續需求以及我們中國合資企業的積極貢獻，僅部分補償了跨資產類別（尤其是股票）的資金流出。

While our integration efforts to consolidate platforms may constrain AM's net new performance over the next few quarters, we expect our enhanced global reach and increased scale in alternatives and indexing to at least partially offset these headwinds. Net management fees dropped 5% as select active products weighed on margins. Performance fees were roughly stable in the quarter. During 2Q, AM made strong progress in improving operational efficiency, a key focus area I highlighted during the investor update earlier this year. Operating expenses were 9% lower sequentially on reductions across both nonpersonnel and personnel costs, partially supported by lower variable compensation.

雖然我們整合平台的努力可能會限制 AM 在未來幾季的淨新業績，但我們預計我們增強的全球影響力以及擴大的替代品和指數規模將至少部分抵消這些不利因素。由於部分活躍產品對利潤率造成壓力，淨管理費下降了 5%。本季的績效費用大致穩定。第二季度，AM 在提高營運效率方面取得了巨大進展，這是我在今年稍早的投資者更新中強調的關鍵重點領域。由於非人員和人員成本減少，營運費用較上季下降 9%，部分原因是變動薪酬下降。

Some of the sequential decline in variable comp is expected to normalize in the quarter. On to our Investment Bank's performance on Slide 13, which as in prior quarters, I compare on a year-over-year basis. The IB delivered a strong second quarter result with improving capital markets activity supporting an excellent banking quarter. Our markets businesses performed well in an environment reflecting mixed market trends, in particular low volatility in equities, rates and FX, as well as lower cash equity volumes in APAC where we are overweight. Operating profit was $412 million, up from an operating loss of $14 million a year earlier and up 2% sequentially as the Investment Bank's backdrop continues to improve.

可變補償的部分連續下降預計將在本季正常化。關於投影片 13 上我們投資銀行的業績，與前幾季一樣，我是按年比較的。 IB 取得了強勁的第二季業績，資本市場活動的改善支撐了銀行季度的出色表現。我們的市場業務在反映混合市場趨勢的環境中表現良好，特別是股票、利率和外匯波動性較低，以及我們增持的亞太地區現金股本量較低。營業利潤為 4.12 億美元，高於去年同期的 1,400 萬美元營業虧損，隨著投資銀行的背景不斷改善，營業利潤環比成長 2%。

Investments to deepen our US presence are having a positive impact on revenues as our contributions of Credit Suisse talent across key sectors of banking and markets. Underlying revenues grew by 26% to $2.5 billion, with nearly 2/3 of this coming from the Americas. I would highlight that our revenue growth was achieved with broadly similar levels of RWA as the IB continues to manage within the group RWA limit of 25%, excluding NCL. Banking revenues were up 55% as we outperformed global fee pools, both in capital markets and advisory.

由於瑞士信貸人才在銀行和市場關鍵領域的貢獻，深化美國業務的投資正對收入產生正面影響。基礎收入成長 26%，達到 25 億美元，其中近 2/3 來自美洲。我要強調的是，我們的營收成長是在 RWA 水準大致相似的情況下實現的，因為 IB 繼續在集團 RWA 限制 25% 的範圍內進行管理（不包括 NCL）。由於我們在資本市場和諮詢方面的表現均優於全球收費池，因此銀行收入增加了 55%。

Since the end of 2023, we have gained over 1 percentage point in market share in each of our strategic banking initiatives, including M&A and sponsors in the Americas. Regionally, APAC saw revenues nearly doubled, while the US was up 83%. EMEA declined by 3% against a very strong prior period. Capital markets revenues were up 82% year-over-year with an outstanding LCM performance reflecting an increase in refinancing activity, mainly in the US

自 2023 年底以來，我們的每項策略銀行計畫（包括美洲的併購和贊助）的市佔率都增加了超過 1 個百分點。從地區來看，亞太地區的收入幾乎翻了一番，而美國則成長了 83%。歐洲、中東和非洲地區與前期的強勁表現相比下降了 3%。資本市場收入年增 82%，LCM 表現出色，反映出再融資活動（主要在美國）的增加

Advisory revenues increased by 23% as we leveraged our strong position in APAC to benefit from increased activity and performed well in the Americas. The strength of our fully integrated coverage teams is visible in our ability to win new mandates, where we ranked seventh globally in announced M&A volumes, making for encouraging deal pipeline. While we expect to continue capturing market share, macro and geopolitical factors are likely to weigh on continued sequential banking revenue growth in the near term.

由於我們利用我們在亞太地區的強大地位，受益於活動的增加以及在美洲的良好表現，諮詢收入增長了 23%。我們完全整合的覆蓋團隊的實力體現在我們贏得新委託的能力中，我們在已公佈的併購數量中排名全球第七，這使得交易管道令人鼓舞。雖然我們預計將繼續佔領市場份額，但宏觀和地緣政治因素可能會在短期內影響銀行業收入的持續環比成長。

Revenues in Global Markets reached $1.8 billion, the best second quarter result in over a decade, up 18% year-on-year and driven by the Americas up nearly 40%. Equities revenues were up 17%, driven by both derivatives and cash, where we have seen material gains in market share. FRC was up 20% with broad increases across FX, credit and rates, benefiting from higher client activity, particularly in FX and rates options, partially offset by lower activity and spread compression that affected our rates flow business. Operating expenses rose 12%, predominantly reflecting higher variable compensation linked to improved performance.

全球市場營收達到 18 億美元，是十多年來最好的第二季業績，年增 18%，其中美洲成長近 40%。在衍生性商品和現金的推動下，股票收入成長了 17%，市場佔有率大幅成長。 FRC 上漲 ​​20%，外匯、信貸和利率大幅上漲，受益於客戶活動增加，特別是外匯和利率選擇權，但部分被活動減少和利差壓縮影響我們的利率流業務所抵消。營運費用成長 12%，主要反映了與績效改善相關的可變薪酬增加。

Moving to slide 14, non-core and legacy's pretax loss in the quarter was $80 million, supported by around $400 million in revenues, principally from gains on physician exits across corporate credit and securitized products and further reductions in the NCL cost base. Underlying OpEx was down 37% sequentially, helped by releases in litigation reserves of $172 million. Excluding litigation, operating expenses declined by 17% as we made strong progress driving down personnel costs and third-party spend.

轉向投影片 14，本季非核心和傳統業務的稅前虧損為 8000 萬美元，受到約 4 億美元收入的支撐，主要來自企業信貸和證券化產品的醫生退出收益以及 NCL 成本基礎的進一步降低。由於 1.72 億美元的訴訟準備金釋放，基礎營運支出較上季下降了 37%。由於我們在降低人員成本和第三方支出方面取得了巨大進展，不包括訴訟，營運費用下降了 17%。

NCLs 6-month pretax profit of $117 million, which far exceeds earlier loss expectations, demonstrates the business' skillful management in derisking its portfolios and rapidly cutting its costs. For the second half of the year, we expect an underlying pretax loss of around $1 billion, reflecting moderate short-term upside to revenues and continued sequential progress on cost reduction, albeit at a slower rate than observed over recent quarters.

NCL 的 6 個月稅前利潤為 1.17 億美元，遠遠超出先前的虧損預期，這表明該公司在降低投資組合風險和迅速削減成本方面的熟練管理。對於今年下半年，我們預計基本稅前虧損約為 10 億美元，反映出營收的短期適度成長以及成本削減的持續進展，儘管速度低於最近幾季觀察到的水平。

Moving to Slide 15. Over the last 4 quarters, NCL has made impressive progress running down its costs across all lines, cutting its underlying operating expense base by over $2 billion or around 50%. NCL has also excelled in running down its balance sheet positions, significantly contributing to group capital efficiency, releasing $5 billion in capital as a result of its efforts. Additionally, NCL has cut its nonoperational risk-weighted assets by almost 60% over the last year, including by another $8 billion this quarter mainly from actively exiting positions across its portfolio, notably in investment grade and high-yield corporate credit, securitized products and macro.

轉到投影片 15。 NCL 在減少資產負債表頭寸方面也表現出色，為集團資本效率做出了重大貢獻，透過其努力釋放了 50 億美元的資本。此外，NCL 比去年削減了近60% 的非營運風險加權資產，其中本季又削減了80 億美元，主要是透過積極退出其投資組合中的頭寸，特別是在投資級和高收益企業信貸、證券化產品和宏。

Similarly, NCL's LRD is down by over 60% since 2Q '23, dropping another $40 billion of leverage exposure this quarter, reflecting lower notionals as well as lower levels of HQLA. In terms of book closures, NCL shuttered another 10% of its active books in the quarter, bringing the total since last June to around 45%. Looking ahead, the progress we're making is visible in the natural roll-off profile, significantly narrowing the gap to our active rundown expectation of around 5% of group RWA by 2026.

同樣，NCL 的 LRD 自 2023 年第二季度以來下降了 60% 以上，本季度又減少了 400 億美元的槓桿敞口，反映出名義帳戶的下降以及 HQLA 水平的下降。在書籍關閉方面，NCL 在本季度又關閉了 10% 的活躍書籍，使去年 6 月以來的總數達到 45% 左右。展望未來，我們所取得的進展在自然滾降曲線中可見一斑，顯著縮小了與我們的主動縮減預期（到 2026 年，集團 RWA 約 5% 左右）的差距。

Further supporting this and as additional evidence of NCL's proficiency in derisking its balance sheet and driving down costs, yesterday, we agreed to sell Credit Suisse's US Mortgage Servicing business. This transaction is expected to close in 1Q '25 and would reduce RWA by around $1.3 billion, LRD by around $1.7 billion and annualized costs by around $250 million.

昨天，我們同意出售瑞信的美國抵押貸款服務業務，這進一步證明了這一點，並進一步證明了 NCL 在降低資產負債表風險和降低成本方面的能力。該交易預計將於 25 年第一季完成，將減少 RWA 約 13 億美元，LRD 約 17 億美元，年化成本約 2.5 億美元。

To summarize, the second quarter demonstrated the power, scale and secular growth potential of our franchise as we delivered strong underlying profitability and continued to make substantial progress across our integration agenda, while reinforcing a balance sheet for all seasons. With that, let's open for questions.

總而言之，第二季度展示了我們特許經營權的力量、規模和長期增長潛力，因為我們提供了強勁的基礎盈利能力，並繼續在整合議程上取得實質性進展，同時加強了所有季節的資產負債表。那麼，就讓我們開始提問吧。

(Event Instructions) Giulia Aurora Miotto, Morgan Stanley.

（活動說明）Giulia Aurora Miotto，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I'll ask two, please. So my first one, thank you very much for the guidance on NII in GWM, which was something that the market was looking forward to. Can I just ask a qualification? If you look at the current forward curve, when do you expect NII to bottom exactly? Do you think second half '24 and then we can grow?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我就問兩個吧所以我的第一個，非常感謝長城汽車對NII的指導，這是市場所期待的。我可以只問一個資格嗎？如果你看一下目前的遠期曲線，你預期 NII 到底什麼時候才能觸底？你認為 24 年下半年我們可以成長嗎？

Or possibly first half '25? So that's the first question. And then the second question is instead on the capital of the parent. In particular, the CSI, it seems to have a lot of excess capital and upstream impact could reduce the impact -- the potential impact from the proposal in Switzerland. And can we expect UBS upstream some of that capital? Or how are you thinking about excess capital at the subsidiaries?

或者可能是25年上半年？這是第一個問題。第二個問題是關於母公司的資本。特別是CSI，它似乎有很多過剩資本和上游影響，可以減少影響——來自瑞士提案的潛在影響。我們能否期望瑞銀獲得部分資本？或者您如何看待子公司的過剩資本？

So regarding the NII guidance, in terms of the implied forward curve, as I mentioned, we ended up pricing in -- as you saw, we modeled for is on rate cuts through the end of the year. If you look out in terms of when the implied forward curve would suggest bottoming out, probably pricing in more like 7 million, depending on what you're looking at. So I mean, from here. While difficult to speculate, it could be sometime in mid-2025. But I spent time on what I think is really important to recognize is that in a lower interest rate environment, there are significant offsets and tailwinds in the business that we expect to see.

因此，關於國家資訊基礎設施指引，就隱含遠期曲線而言，正如我所提到的，我們最終定價了——正如您所看到的，我們建模的是年底前的降息。如果您觀察隱含遠期曲線何時會觸底，定價可能約為 700 萬美元，具體取決於您所關注的內容。所以我的意思是，從這裡開始。雖然很難推測，但可能會在 2025 年中期的某個時間。但我花了時間思考我認為真正重要的是要認識到，在較低的利率環境下，我們預計會看到業務中出現重大的抵消和順風。

And that was a point that we wanted to really ensure is well understood. Because ultimately, transaction revenues, releveraging and driving up NII from releveraging and also recurring fees from mandate sales all have upside in an environment of lower interest rates.

我們希望真正確保這一點得到充分理解。因為歸根結底，交易收入、再槓桿化和再槓桿化帶來的NII以及委託銷售的經常性費用在較低利率的環境下都有上升空間。

In terms of the parent bank capital, you mentioned Credit Suisse's UK subsidiary that has excess capital, of course, we're working on restructuring on all of our subsidiaries where we can. And ultimately, we will, as appropriate, upstream the capital in any of the subsidiaries in order to alleviate the capital at the parent bank.

關於母行資本，你提到瑞士信貸的英國子公司有過剩的資本，當然我們正在盡可能地對我們所有的子公司進行重組。最終，我們將酌情將任何子公司的資本上游，以減輕母行的資本。

Andrew Coombs, Citi.

安德魯·庫姆斯，花旗銀行。

I'd like to just drill down to two of the areas where you perhaps delivered ahead of expectations. So firstly, on the noncore, another successful quarter of actively reducing the RWAs, some further gains on some of those business exits. You're now talking about narrowing that gap to the natural runoff. So based on the natural runoff, you'd be at 6%, you're aiming for 5%. So I think that is only another $5 billion implied of active RWA management in that business.

我想深入探討您可能超出預期的兩個領域。首先，在非核心領域，又一個積極減少 RWA 的成功季度，其中一些業務退出取得了進一步的收益。現在您談論的是縮小與自然徑流的差距。所以根據自然徑流，你的目標是 6%，你的目標是 5%。因此，我認為這只是該業務中積極 RWA 管理所暗示的另外 50 億美元。

And as you alluded to, the close of the US mortgage servicing business will get you some way towards that. Should we assume that the active management in the NCL book is now largely complete or will be largely complete by the end of this year?

正如您所提到的，美國抵押貸款服務業務的結束將為您提供一些實現這一目標的方法。我們是否應該假設 NCL 帳簿中的主動管理現在已基本完成，還是將在今年年底基本完成？

And then my second question is just on costs. Previously, I think you expected to be at 50% by end '24. You're now at 55%, guiding by end '24 of the total cost save target. There's an extra $500 million of cost saves that you've realized earlier than expected. Which division is it you view those cost saves are coming through earlier than expected?

我的第二個問題是關於成本。此前，我認為您預計到 24 年底將達到 50%。目前，您已完成 24 年底總成本節省目標的 55%。您比預期更早意識到額外節省了 5 億美元的成本。您認為哪個部門的成本節約比預期更早實現？

And in your mind, it's purely just the timing issue, that you commented earlier, as opposed quantum issue that you're delivering more cost saves than expected?

在您看來，這純粹只是您之前評論過的時間問題，而不是您節省的成本比預期更多的量子問題？

Yes. Thanks a lot, Andrew. So on the second one, in terms of on the cost and the performance and outperformance we're continuing to see, I mean, that's really driven, as I highlighted in my comments, by NCL for sure. NCL has driven the lion's share of the gross cost saves to date. While the other divisions have contributed, it has been really a function of their active rundown of positions, but also the restructuring of various parts of Credit Suisse's GSIB that we've highlighted in the past is an important part of taking out costs, and a lot of those costs reside in NCL.

是的。非常感謝，安德魯。因此，在第二個方面，就成本、性能和卓越表現而言，我們將繼續看到，我的意思是，正如我在評論中所強調的那樣，這確實是由 NCL 推動的。迄今為止，NCL 已節省了大部分總成本。雖然其他部門也做出了貢獻，但這實際上是它們積極削減頭寸的結果，而且我們過去強調過的瑞信 GSIB 各個部分的重組也是削減成本的重要組成部分，而且其中大部分成本都屬於NCL 。

So they've been really the benefactor of the cost performance. And as we look out towards the end of the year, the additional progress that we anticipate even though, as I suggest, we expect a bit moderate deceleration in the gross cost saves, that's expected to be yielded also by NCL. And as I highlighted, the core business divisions will then -- the ratio of core to noncore, or noncore to core in terms of cost takeout will invert as we get into the second half of the integration agenda and we'll start to see the significant cost reductions hitting through, in particular, GWM and P&C.

所以他們確實是性價比的受益者。當我們展望今年年底時，我們預計會取得額外進展，儘管正如我所建議的，我們預計總成本節省將略有放緩，預計 NCL 也將取得這一成果。正如我所強調的，核心業務部門將——核心與非核心、或非核心與核心在成本支出方面的比率將在我們進入整合議程的後半部分時發生反轉，我們將開始看到成本大幅降低，尤其是長城汽車和財產保險。

And then -- and just on the first in terms of how we see the natural runoff and the success we've had in the quarter. Of course, we're not counting on extrapolating and we take economic decisions as they arise and the opportunities arise. So difficult to extrapolate the great outcome that we've had to date to suggest a different outcome than the natural roll off. And that's why we continue to disclose it. So that becomes clear.

然後，首先是我們如何看待自然徑流和我們在本季取得的成功。當然，我們並不指望推斷，而是在出現經濟決策和機會出現時做出經濟決策。很難推斷出偉大的結果，以至於迄今為止我們不得不提出與自然滾降不同的結果。這就是我們繼續披露它的原因。這樣就清楚了。

What is important, and Sergio commented this in his remarks, that the uncertainty delta continues to narrow. And that's what I think is important that, ultimately, we can't count on anything in particular in terms of what can come off the balance sheet of NCL in terms of extrapolation. What we can say is that the uncertainty delta has narrowed very significantly.

塞爾吉奧在演講中評論道，重要的是，不確定性增量繼續縮小。我認為這一點很重要，最終我們不能指望任何具體的東西可以從 NCL 的資產負債表中推斷出來。我們可以說的是，不確定性增量已經非常顯著縮小。

That's clear. I guess the follow-on would be just your previous guidance, which for a typical run rate of close to 0 revenues from NCL per quarter, and presume that's unchanged.

很清楚。我猜接下來的內容只是您之前的指導，對於每季 NCL 收入接近 0 的典型運行率，並假設這一情況保持不變。

Yes. As I said, Andrew, that we see in the long term, that's for sure the case. In the short term, i.e., the 2H guidance that I offered, we see some modest upside to current book values on the revenue side. So some modest uptake in driving the $1 billion underlying PBT loss guidance that I offered in my comments.

是的。正如我所說，安德魯，從長遠來看，情況確實如此。從短期來看，也就是我提供的 2H 指導，我們認為當前帳面價值在收入方面有一些適度的上漲。因此，在推動我在評論中提出的 10 億美元基本 PBT 損失指引方面，人們採取了一些適度的行動。

Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas.

傑里米·西吉，法國巴黎銀行。

Two questions, please. First one just follows on from just exactly what you were talking, about the guidance for the P&L drag from NCL. Obviously, it's going better than expected, which is great to see. What would we expect now? Previously, you were talking about $2 billion P&L drag exit rate in 2025, and then $1 billion exiting to '26.

請教兩個問題。第一個問題正是您剛才所說的，關於 NCL 損益拖累的指引。顯然，情況比預期的要好，這是很高興看到的。我們現在會期待什麼？此前，您談論的是 2025 年損益拖累退出率 20 億美元，然後到 26 年退出率 10 億美元。

And obviously, it's going much better than that with sort of a $1 billion drag in the second half that you're integrating. What should we expect for 2025 and could the NCL drag be finished within 2025 rather than carrying on into 2026? Any update on that would be really helpful.

顯然，它的進展比下半年要整合的 10 億美元的拖累要好得多。我們對 2025 年應該有什麼期望？任何有關這方面的更新都會非常有幫助。

And then my second question, just a more sort of specific one on Investment Banking costs. They drifted up a little bit more than revenues in the second quarter. It's not a big move, but the cost/income deteriorated against those strong revenues rather than perhaps you might have hoped it could have improved a little bit. So any comments on the drivers, whether there's any one-offs in there or anything unusual. Just how we should interpret that IB cost number, please.

然後是我的第二個問題，一個關於投資銀行成本的更具體的問題。第二季度的成長略高於收入。這並不是一個大的舉措，但與強勁的收入相比，成本/收入卻惡化了，而不是您可能希望的情況會有所改善。所以對車手的任何評論，是否有任何一次性的或任何不尋常的事情。請問我們應該如何解釋該 IB 費用數字。

Jeremy, on the second one, in the comp on the IB cost, it's -- the comp quarter, of course, only has Credit Suisse personnel in for a short period of time, just the 1 month when you look at the year-on-year comp, whereas the current quarter has the people we've added for the full quarter, so that's driving that variance.

傑里米（Jeremy），關於第二個，在 IB 成本的比較中，當然，在比較季度中，瑞士信貸人員只在很短的一段時間內工作，當你查看同比時，只有 1 個月年比較，而當前季度有我們為整個季度添加的人員，因此這推動了這種差異。

Sorry, I'm speaking QoQ as your costs are up 3% and the revenues are up 1%. So I was thinking more Qo-Q.

抱歉，我說的是環比，因為您的成本上漲了 3%，收入上漲了 1%。所以我更多地思考Qo-Q。

Yes, on QoQ , it would be just some compensation-related effects that we're hitting through driving the QoQ. But I'd have to go back and look at that. But really, it's more the year-on-year that we've focused on. On the -- in terms of the guidance on the P&L drag in NCL, in terms of what we should expect, look, I mean we're really pleased with the performance we've had to date. As I said in my last comments.

是的，在環比上，這只是我們透過推動環比而達到的一些與補償相關的影響。但我必須回去看看。但實際上，我們更關注的是同比情況。就 NCL 損益拖累的指導而言，就我們應該期待的情況而言，我的意思是，我們對迄今為止的表現感到非常滿意。正如我在上次評論中所說。

There's no way to extrapolate from it, it's a straight line and to assume that that's the pace of which will continue. So our guidance remains. That's where, in terms of the P&L drag at the end of '26 is right now still our best estimate. When we come back and talk about an outlook in the fourth quarter going forward, potentially, we update that and see where we are. But for now, that's our best estimate in terms of where we land.

沒有辦法從中推斷，它是一條直線，並且假設這就是它的速度將繼續下去。所以我們的指導仍然存在。就 26 年底的損益拖累而言，這仍然是我們目前的最佳估計。當我們回來討論第四季度的前景時，我們可能會更新並看看我們的情況。但就目前而言，這是我們對著陸地點的最佳估計。

Kian Abouhossein, JPMorgan.

基安·阿布侯賽因，摩根大通。

The first one is related to Wealth Management. First of all, thanks again, Todd, for the disclaimer. I hope some of the US peers are listening, as this was very helpful relative where before from US peers.

第一個與財富管理有關。首先，再次感謝托德的免責聲明。我希望一些美國同行能夠傾聽，因為這相對於美國同行之前來說非常有幫助。

Sweep deposits last disclosure was $35.7 billion I was wondering where we are roughly right now in the US entity. If you could also share with us the Advisory part of that, so we can kind of understand the adjustment factor, what rate you are paying now versus what rate you will be paying for the sweep deposits on these Advisory mandates? And in that context, if you could briefly talk about lending, which was down ex US, just to understand how much of that is related to adjustments of your offering to the CS clients versus actual losses in lending. And then the second question is on legal entity on page 19, it's a very useful chart.

上次披露的掃款存款金額為 357 億美元，我想知道我們目前在美國實體中的大致情況。如果您也可以與我們分享其中的諮詢部分，以便我們能夠了解調整因素，您現在支付的利率是多少，而您將為這些諮詢授權的掃描存款支付的利率是多少？在這種情況下，如果你能簡單地談談美國以外地區的貸款下降，只是為了了解其中有多少與你向客戶服務客戶提供的服務的調整與貸款的實際損失有關。第二個問題是第19頁的法律實體，這是一個非常有用的圖表。

And we talked about further legal entity simplification in the US as well as the UK being into a branch. I was wondering what capital relief you expect from that? Or maybe even in subjective terms, you can talk a little bit about the changes that will happen -- when you describe it to you on the page.

我們也討論了美國法律實體的進一步簡化以及英國設立分支機構的問題。我想知道您期望從中獲得什麼資本減免？或者甚至可以用主觀的術語來說，當您在頁面上向您描述時，您可以談論一些將要發生的變化。

Thanks, Kian, for the question. So on -- in terms of the second one, to continue merging subsidiaries out of existence to create and unlock more capital funding and tax and fees. So that's what we're getting too. So we're working all through that. We just, of course, did the big parent bank and Swiss bank mergers.

謝謝基安提出的問題。依此類推－就第二點而言，繼續合併已不存在的子公司，以創造和釋放更多的資本融資以及稅金和費用。這也是我們得到的。所以我們正在努力解決這個問題。當然，我們只是進行了大型母銀行和瑞士銀行的合併。

We repaired the repatriation of excess capital, say, in a subsidiary. Of course, that is part of the analysis that we go through as we work through it. But it's -- there are contingencies to the time line in terms of what triggers and what the timing could be to merge some of these entities out of existence.

我們修復了多餘資本的匯回問題，例如子公司的資本匯回問題。當然，這是我們在工作過程中進行分析的一部分。但事實上，就觸發因素以及合併其中一些實體的時機而言，時間軸存在意外情況。

In terms of GWM, so what I could say on the on the sweep deposits. First of all, Advisory is about 1/3 of the total the total that we have sweeps. So just to give -- to dimension that a bit, is I think that's probably useful to understand. And then as far as the pricing goes, of course, the way we're -- first of all, it's a function of interest rates because I mentioned we're going to introduce the new rates in advisory in the fourth quarter because we have to change systems and go through some transitional work to get there. So we have to see also where interest rates are, so in terms of an absolute price that I can offer.

就長城汽車而言，我可以就掃蕩存款說些什麼。首先，諮商約占我們掃蕩總數的 1/3。因此，我認為這可能有助於理解。然後就定價而言，當然，我們的方式 - 首先，它是利率的函數，因為我提到我們將在第四季度引入新的諮詢利率，因為我們有改變系統並完成一些過渡工作才能實現這一目標。所以我們還必須看看利率在哪裡，所以就我可以提供的絕對價格而言。

But what I can say is that we will, for sure, price in the value of the insurance coverage we offer on deposits that benefit from multiple programs, multiple bank programs and reciprocal programs that we've invested in, and that will feature into the price of the rate we ultimately offer.

但我可以說的是，我們肯定會定價我們為存款提供的保險範圍的價值，這些存款受益於我們投資的多個計劃、多個銀行計劃和互惠計劃，這將納入我們最終提供的價格。

In terms of lending balances, ex-US, the main driver of that, I mean clearly, we've seen deleveraging in a higher interest rate market for outside the US, particularly in APAC, for several quarters running. We're looking forward and seeing some signs of tapering there, but we continue to see that. As I highlighted, as rates come down, we do expect that, that should taper and then start to see clients releverage. But -- so the rate environment is driving some of that, but the other part of it, perhaps the more significant driver, is the financial resource optimization work we're doing that a consequence of that is that loans will roll off on our platform, which is one of the points I highlighted in connection with the net new asset port.

就貸款餘額而言，美國以外的主要驅動力，我的意思是，我們已經連續幾個季度看到美國以外地區（尤其是亞太地區）利率較高的市場出現了去槓桿化。我們期待並看到一些逐漸減少的跡象，但我們仍然會看到這種情況。正如我所強調的那樣，隨著利率下降，我們確實預期利率會逐漸減少，然後開始看到客戶重新利用槓桿。但是，利率環境正在推動其中的一部分，但另一部分，也許是更重要的推動因素，是我們正在做的金融資源優化工作，其結果是貸款將在我們的平台上滾存，這是我在淨新資產連接埠方面強調的要點之一。

And Todd, just on sweep, I know that Morgan Stanley has confirmed 2% rate to be paid. Should we look at similar rates? And could you just also remind us of where we are on the sweep volumes at the moment? Last number we saw was 35.7 billion.

托德，我知道摩根士丹利已確認支付 2% 的利率。我們應該考慮類似的利率嗎？您能否提醒我們目前在掃描量上處於什麼位置？我們最後看到的數字是 357 億。

Yes. What I could say, Kian, is that the number has come in a little bit, it's driven -- is in also some of the comments I made on mix is driving the 2Q results. So you could assume that number has come a little bit lower. And all I could say, get anything further on the rate is, as mentioned, competitive dynamics will ultimately feature in how we ultimately settle on a price for the sweep deposits. So as I said, I gave some views on considerations that we will factor in. But as far as an absolute price, that's not at this point something that we have settled on.

是的。 Kian，我可以說的是，這個數字已經出現了一些，它是受驅動的——我對混合所做的一些評論也推動了第二季度的結果。所以你可以假設這個數字有點低。我只能說，正如前面提到的，對利率的進一步了解，競爭動態最終將決定我們最終如何確定掃款存款的價格。正如我所說，我就我們將考慮的因素提出了一些看法。

Anke Reingen, RBC.

安克雷因根，加拿大皇家銀行。

The first one is just on the Basel IV impact on -- the $25 billion on the January 1, '25. I guess you said you will give us a bit more detail potentially before year-end. But I mean, you previously talked about a $15 billion net of yes, noncore on down, do you have a -- can you give us a better indication of how the $25 billion will actually look on, on the first of January 2025? And then sorry, coming back on the NII guidance. Just confirming the P&C reiterating of guidance that's on the US dollar basis rather than Swiss franc. And conceptually, I mean, I see -- I mean, you now assume more rate cuts than before, but the guidance is reiterated. Can you just maybe highlight what the missing pieces that allows you to reiterate guidance?

第一個是關於巴塞爾 IV 的影響——25 年 1 月 1 日的 250 億美元。我猜你說過你可能會在年底前向我們提供更多細節。但我的意思是，您之前談到了150 億美元的淨額，是的，非核心的下降，您能否給我們一個更好的指示，說明250 億美元在2025 年1 月1 日實際情況如何？然後抱歉，回到 NII 指導。只是確認 P&C 重申的指導是基於美元而不是瑞士法郎。從概念上講，我的意思是，我的意思是，你現在假設比以前有更多的降息，但指導方針得到了重申。您能否強調一下哪些缺失的部分可以讓您重申指導意見？

The impact is 5% of risk-weighted assets, so in that range. As you mentioned, we guided in the fourth quarter in our investor update that $15 billion is in the core, $10 billion in noncore. I think for now, that split remains pretty robust in terms of we're thinking -- how we're seeing it, and actually we'll continue to work down the NCL portfolio to make that impact lessened over time. In terms of the NII guidance for P&C, just to -- you asked for clarity on -- it is in Swiss francs, so we're guiding in Swiss francs. We'll offer both in the future to sort of help.

影響是風險加權資產的 5%，所以在這個範圍內。正如您所提到的，我們在第四季的投資者更新中指出，核心資金為 150 億美元，非核心資金為 100 億美元。我認為目前，就我們的想法而言，這種分裂仍然相當強勁——我們如何看待它，實際上，我們將繼續研究 NCL 投資組合，以隨著時間的推移減少這種影響。就 P&C 的 NII 指導而言，您要求澄清的是，它以瑞士法郎為單位，因此我們以瑞士法郎為單位進行指導。我們將來會提供這兩種幫助。

As I mentioned, in 3Q, we see a low single-digit down in Swissy, but flat sequentially in USD. And as I mentioned, I think that's a good outcome that we've had a number of headwinds that we've been working through sort of reaffirm the guidance for the full year is also a function of some management actions that have been taken, including some loan repricing actions that have helped. So those are the drivers of the NII guidance for P&C.

正如我所提到的，在第三季度，我們看到瑞士幣出現低個位數下跌，但美元環比持平。正如我所提到的，我認為這是一個很好的結果，我們遇到了許多阻力，我們一直在努力解決這些阻力，重申全年的指導也是已採取的一些管理行動的結果，包括一些貸款重新定價行動有幫助。這些就是 P&C 國家資訊基礎設施指南的驅動因素。

Sorry, just to follow up. So on the 1st of January '25, so the 25 -- I mean, the 5% increase in RWA? Or should it be lower because some litigation NCL rundown has already kicked in or reduced the impact?

抱歉，只是為了跟進。所以在 25 年 1 月 1 日，也就是 25 日——我的意思是，RWA 增加了 5%？還是應該降低，因為一些 NCL 訴訟已經開始或減少了影響？

The estimate is on the same basis we gave it in 4Q in terms of the impact because it's mainly FRDB-driven. So for now, assume the guidance remains. And as I said, if we have an update before we go live with it, of course, we'll come back and provide it.

該估計值與我們在第四季度的影響方面給出的基礎相同，因為它主要是 FRDB 驅動的。因此，目前假設指導意見仍然存在。正如我所說，如果我們在上線之前有更新，當然，我們會回來提供它。

Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs.

克里斯·哈勒姆，高盛。

So first, you've guided for banking to generate almost twice the baseline revenues by 2026, assuming supportive markets. So obviously, performance was very strong in the second quarter, but then we had this period of elevated volatility at the start of August. Has that changed anything in terms of how close we are now to supportive markets? And how would you expect the recovery to progress through the second half of this year?

首先，假設市場支持，您預計到 2026 年，銀行業將產生幾乎兩倍於基準的收入。顯然，第二季的表現非常強勁，但隨後我們在八月初經歷了這段波動加劇的時期。這是否改變了我們現在離支持性市場有多近？您預計今年下半年的復甦進度如何？

And then second question just on profitability. At the start of the year, you said you'd expect to get to around 45% of the $13 billion gross savings by the end of '24, and you've got there by the end of the first half. And you also guided for a mid-single-digit underlying return on core Tier 1 for this year, mid- to high for next year. Consensus is at 6% for this year, 9% for next year. But in the first half, you're already above 9%. So how should we be thinking now about the path for underlying return on core Tier 1 through 2024 and 2025?

然後是關於獲利能力的第二個問題。今年年初，您曾表示預計到 24 年底將實現 130 億美元總節省的 45% 左右，而您在上半年末就實現了這一目標。您還指導今年核心一級的基本回報為中個位數，明年為中高水準。今年的共識是 6%，明年是 9%。但在上半年，你已經超過 9%了。那麼，我們現在該如何思考 2024 年和 2025 年核心一級核心回報的路徑？

Thank you, Chris. I'll take the first question. So look, I think of course the market environment is volatile and there are elements of fragility that we see. But what is most important for us is to look through the short-term market dynamics. And I can tell you that I'm very confident that we are building up a very compelling pipeline in terms of mandate that we win, still not announced and things that can be then executed in a normalized market environment.

謝謝你，克里斯。我來回答第一個問題。因此，我認為市場環境當然是不穩定的，我們看到了脆弱的因素。但對我們來說最重要的是審視短期市場動態。我可以告訴你，我非常有信心，我們正在建立一個非常引人注目的管道，就我們贏得的任務而言，尚未宣布，以及可以在正常化的市場環境中執行的事情。

So of course, if we see the kind of volatility we had in a couple of weeks ago, that would not be very helpful for the pipeline. But in general, I stay -- I would say that positive in respect of our momentum. So a good pipeline and good momentum in winning mandates, but of course, it will also depend on market conditions.

因此，當然，如果我們看到幾週前出現的那種波動，對管道不會有太大幫助。但總的來說，我會留下來——我想說的是，就我們的勢頭而言，這是積極的。因此，良好的管道和贏得授權的良好動力，但當然，這也取決於市場狀況。

And Chris, on the second. In terms of a return on core CET1 and how it relates to our guidance. So as you mentioned, we initially guided it mid or mid-single digits for '24, mid- to high for '25. So naturally, if there's an update, we'll bring it to you when we talk about our '25 expectations later this year. In terms of where we are, as Sergio highlighted in his comments, the first six months, we generated an underlying return on CET1 of 9.2%.So obviously, we're comfortably ahead of the target of mid for 2024.

克里斯，第二個。關於核心 CET1 的回報及其與我們的指導的關係。正如您所提到的，我們最初將 24 年的指導價定為中個位數，將 25 年的指導價定為中高。當然，如果有更新，我們會在今年稍後談論我們的 '25 期望時向您提供。就我們目前的情況而言，正如 Sergio 在他的評論中所強調的那樣，前六個月，我們的 CET1 基本回報率為 9.2%。

Amit Goel, Mediobanca.

阿米特·戈爾，Mediobanca。

So one, just a follow-up, just to make sure I also heard the previous guidance correctly. I think you mentioned the cost of the reprice from sweep to be about $50 million annually. So I mean, I guess, given the one-third advisory disclosure, that would imply only just over 40 bps of incremental cost on that portion and effectively nothing on the rest. So I was just kind of curious, I mean, in a way that you could continue to see outflows, so I'm wondering what the capacity is for the group to replace that funding at similar costs.

所以，這只是一個後續行動，只是為了確保我也正確地聽到了先前的指導。我想你提到了每年大約 5000 萬美元的掃描重新定價成本。因此，我想，鑑於三分之一的諮詢揭露，這意味著該部分的增量成本僅略高於 40 個基點，而其餘部分實際上沒有任何增量成本。所以我只是有點好奇，我的意思是，在某種程度上你可以繼續看到資金​​外流，所以我想知道該集團有什麼能力以類似的成本取代這筆資金。

And then also just linked to that, if I look then at the total sweep and the cost of sweep, it seems like that the earnings are pretty similar to what Wealth Management Americas generate. So I'm just kind of curious how you think about Wealth Management America's profitability? And with some of these headwinds, how you think you'll get back to that mid-teens operating margin. And then secondly, just curious on the parent. Is there any scope to shift exposure from foreign participations to domestic in addition to capital repatriation and whether that can be reflected in participation values, if there is potentially rule change coming.

與此相關的是，如果我看看總掃掠量和掃掠成本，似乎收益與美洲財富管理產生的收益非常相似。所以我只是有點好奇你如何看待美國財富管理公司的獲利能力？面對其中一些不利因素，您認為您將如何恢復到十幾歲左右的營業利潤率。其次，只是對父母感到好奇。除了資本匯回之外，是否還有將風險敞口從外國參與轉移到國內的空間，以及如果規則可能發生變化，這是否可以反映在參與價值中。

Thanks, Amit. Yes, in terms of the second one, shifting exposure domestically, whether that helps, it's way too early to speculate on how we're going to address and what actions we take. We don't know what the standards are. So -- and where they'll move -- where the standards will move, assuming they move. And so to speculate about what mitigating actions might be available to us is way too early.

謝謝，阿米特。是的，就第二個問題而言，將風險轉移到國內，這是否有幫助，現在猜測我們將如何解決以及採取什麼行動還為時過早。我們不知道標準是什麼。那麼——以及它們將移動到哪裡——標準將移動到哪裡，假設它們移動了。因此，推測我們可能採取哪些緩解措施還為時過早。

In terms of sweeps, yes, I disclosed that the impact on pretax profit is expected to be around $50 million annualized in the US Wealth business. I did say that that's net of offsetting factors. So that includes an array of banking initiatives and expense programs across various categories. So there -- I wouldn't take the $50 million as gross income.

就掃蕩而言，是的，我透露，對美國財富業務的稅前利潤的影響預計約為年化 5000 萬美元。我確實說過這是扣除抵銷因素後的結果。這包括一系列跨不同類別的銀行措施和支出計劃。因此，我不會將 5000 萬美元視為總收入。

But actually, as I said, it is a net impact.

但實際上，正如我所說，這是一個淨影響。

And I think, look, I saw interesting that you asked the question and then lead to how we're going to address the pretax margin issues. We - nothing has changed on that. We're focused on that. We know what we have to do. The sweep deposit issue is a modest hit on that, of course, because it's something we're saying is adverse to PBT.

我認為，你看，我發現很有趣的是你提出了這個問題，然後引導我們如何解決稅前利潤問題。我們——這一切都沒有改變。我們專注於此。我們知道我們必須做什麼。當然，掃蕩存款問題對此造成的影響不大，因為我們認為這對 PBT 不利。

We think manageable, and now we're getting on with the work of of improving the margins on the basis of how we've described that in the past. So we know we have to do there, and we're taking steps to achieve that.

我們認為這是可以管理的，現在我們正在根據我們過去描述的方式繼續提高利潤率。所以我們知道我們必須這樣做，並且我們正在採取措施來實現這一目標。

Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank.

班傑明‧戈伊，德意志銀行。

Two questions, please. So the first one on GWM, in particular America, where the cost/income ratio remains above 90%. It was better during low interest rate times. So just wondering with the mix shift from NII and falling more towards most likely, as you see upside to year-end '26 income ratio improvement target? And then secondly, on the capital side, you obviously as the group guidance of 14% CET1, but you see the 12.5% more final constrained.

請教兩個問題。所以第一個是長城汽車，特別是美國，成本收入比維持在90%以上。在低利率時期情況會更好。因此，正如您認為 26 年底收入比率改善目標有上升空間一樣，只是想知道 NII 的混合變化以及更有可能下​​降的情況？其次，在資本方面，你顯然作為14％CET1的集團指導，但你看到12.5％最終受到限制。

And that's the first half of the question. The second is with Switzerland being essentially only geography, introducing FRTB and delaying, do you think that's the final piece of the hurdle in terms of higher capital requirements for you?

這是問題的前半部。第二個是瑞士本質上只是地理因素，引入 FRTB 並推遲，您認為這對您來說是更高資本要求的最後一個障礙嗎？

Let me take the second part of the question. Of course, the 14% guidance we have right now stays as it is. The 12.5% you mentioned look through fully applied 2030 current requirements. We will see exactly how things develop in the next few quarters in terms of future requirements. From an FRTB standpoint of view, of course, as you mentioned, Switzerland will introduce that on January 1.

讓我回答問題的第二部分。當然，我們目前的 14% 指引保持不變。您提到的 12.5% 查看了完全適用的 2030 年當前要求。我們將在接下來的幾季中根據未來的需求具體了解事情的發展。當然，從 FRTB 的角度來看，正如您所提到的，瑞士將於 1 月 1 日推出這項政策。

It will be, short term, a competitive disadvantage. We don't believe -- we believe is manageable short term. Of course, if this -- should other jurisdictions not converge, not to converge to Basel III full implementation over the next couple of years. Then, of course, that would be a little bit problematic, and we would need to think about how to address this matter. So we remain confident that we will be able to have a level playing field in how we operate and compete globally, but it remains to be seen.

短期來看，這將是一種競爭劣勢。我們不相信－我們相信短期內是可控制的。當然，如果其他司法管轄區不趨同，則不會在未來幾年內趨同於巴塞爾協議 III 的全面實施。那當然，這就有點問題了，我們需要考慮如何解決這個問題。因此，我們仍然相信，我們將能夠在全球營運和競爭方面擁有一個公平的競爭環境，但這還有待觀察。

And Benjamin, here's how we think about the -- your cost/income ratio question for GWM, where we have a look through cost-income ratio presently of around 80%. Naturally, when we planned the $13 billion of gross cost saves and the less than 70% cost-to-income ratio, GWM factors in quite prominently in that piece of work. And that's why I've highlighted that the cost/income ratio will be benefited by the work that's just going to get going in the next quarter or two, which is the client account migration work and platform consolidation starting in APAC and parts of Europe before the Swiss booking center.

班傑明，這是我們對長城汽車的成本/收入比問題的看法，我們目前的成本/收入比約為 80%。當然，當我們計劃節省 130 億美元的總成本和低於 70% 的成本收入比時，長城汽車在這項工作中佔據了相當顯著的位置。這就是為什麼我強調成本/收入比將受益於下一兩個季度即將開展的工作，即先前在亞太地區和歐洲部分地區開始的客戶帳戶遷移工作和平台整合工作瑞士訂票中心。

That will drive significant cost down, and ultimately, which is why I believe that Wealth and P&C will benefit significantly in the latter half of the integration work. So in terms of where we get our cost/income ratio, it will -- GWM's cost/income ratio in the end will be a big contributor to the group meeting its target of less than 70% by the end of 2026.

這將顯著降低成本，最終，這就是為什麼我相信財富和財產險將在整合工作的後半段中顯著受益。因此，就我們的成本/收入比而言，長城汽車的成本/收入比最終將為集團實現 2026 年底低於 70% 的目標做出重大貢獻。

This was, in particular, on the Americas, the GWM Americas where you probably won't see much of a cost save benefits. But correct me if I'm wrong.

尤其是在美洲，長城汽車美洲，您可能不會看到太多成本節省的好處。但如果我錯了請糾正我。

Question was on the Americas. Sorry, I didn't --

問題是關於美洲的。抱歉，我沒有——

Yes. Indeed, from the 90% right now more towards the 85% as it can accelerate with the different revenue mix.

是的。事實上，從現在的 90% 更接近 85%，因為它可以隨著不同的收入組合而加速。

No, look as I said also to the -- before, and I've said previously, we're working towards a mid-teens sub-profit margin over the next couple of years. That's where we know we have to narrow the gap where we are, that's where we are working towards. And that also features into the less than 70% cost income ratio by the end of '26 getting to that level. So nothing that I've guided to today has changed any of that. We're very focused on taking the steps to achieve that by that -- in that time frame.

不，正如我之前所說的，我之前也說過，我們正在努力在未來幾年內實現十幾歲以下的利潤率。這就是我們知道我們必須縮小差距的地方，這就是我們正在努力的方向。到 26 年底，成本收入比率將低於 70%，達到這一水平。所以我今天的指導並沒有改變這一切。我們非常注重採取措施來實現這一目標——在那個時間範圍內。

Tom Hallett, KBW.

湯姆哈利特，KBW。

I'm just curious what do you assume in terms of loan and deposit growth in the Swiss business NII and GWM guide in the second half of the year? And then secondly, how do you see deposit mix shift and deposit betas evolving within that guide as well?

我只是好奇您對下半年瑞士商業NII和長城汽車指南中的貸款和存款成長有何看法？其次，您如何看待該指南中存款組合的轉變和存款貝塔值的演變？

Yes. Thanks, Tom. So in terms of volumes in each of the businesses, I expect loans in both of the businesses through the end of 2024 to come slightly in largely because of the balance sheet work that I highlighted in my comments. So I think, in both cases, loans would come in. I see deposits as well through -- on the GWM side as well towards the end of the year, I mean, roughly flat at this point.

是的。謝謝，湯姆。因此，就每項業務的數量而言，我預計到 2024 年底，這兩項業務的貸款都會略有增加，這主要是因為我在評論中強調的資產負債表工作。所以我認為，在這兩種情況下，貸款都會進來。

I see P&C growing deposits, whether through the rest of this year, but certainly as we look out over the longer term. So I would say a little bit of downward pressure in terms of loans in large part, just given the balance sheet work that we're doing.

我認為財產保險存款不斷增長，無論是今年剩餘時間，還是從長遠來看，存款肯定會增長。因此，考慮到我們正在進行的資產負債表工作，我想說，在很大程度上，貸款方面存在一些下行壓力。

On the deposit side, I see more sort of flat to growing in the near to midterm in terms of the balance sheet. In terms of deposit mix shifts, look, I think in the end, where we've been seeing, as many banks have, the effects of deposit mix and cash sorting and rotation for some period of time. As rates start to come down, we expect that the cash sorting will continue to taper and will be less of an impact in terms of the NII. And that's a little bit of what we're seeing. And our outlook is, just given the fact that we expect our modeling rates coming in, that we are seeing sort of in a way the last vestige of mix shifts as while rates remain a bit higher. So that's how we see the deposit mix shift is evolving.

在存款方面，我認為資產負債表在近期到中期將趨於持平或成長。就存款組合的轉變而言，我認為最終我們已經看到了，就像許多銀行一樣，在一段時間內存款組合以及現金分類和輪換的影響。隨著利率開始下降，我們預計現金分類將繼續減少，對國家資訊基礎設施的影響也將減少。這就是我們所看到的一小部分。我們的前景是，考慮到我們預計我們的建模率將會出現，我們在某種程度上看到了混合變化的最後痕跡，而利率仍然略高。這就是我們看到存款結構轉變正在演變的方式。

There are no more questions. Thank you all for calling in and your questions. And see you in end of October for the Q3 results. Thank you.

沒有更多問題了。感謝大家的來電和提問。十月底第三季業績見。謝謝。