UBS Group AG (UBS) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning.

女士們、先生們，早安。

Welcome to the UBS full-year 2024 results presentation.

歡迎參加瑞銀2024年全年業績報告。

The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast.

會議內容不得錄製並出版或廣播。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Sarah Mackey, UBS Investor Relations.

現在，我很高興將權力移交給瑞銀投資者關係部的 Sarah Mackey。

Please go ahead, madam.

女士，請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome, everyone.

早上好，歡迎大家。

Before we start, I'd like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement slide at the back of today's results presentation.

在我們開始之前，我想提請大家注意今天的結果報告背後的警告聲明幻燈片。

Please also refer to the risk factors included in our annual report, together with additional disclosures in our SEC filings.

另請參閱我們的年度報告中包含的風險因素以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的其他揭露。

On slide 2, you can see our agenda for today.

在第 2 張投影片上，您可以看到我們今天的議程。

Sergio and Todd will go through our fourth-quarter and full-year results, as well as our investor update, before we move on to Q&A.

在我們進入問答環節之前，Sergio 和 Todd 將介紹我們的第四季度和全年業績以及投資者更新情況。

It's now my pleasure to hand over to Sergio Ermotti, Group CEO.

現在我很高興將職務移交給集團執行長 Sergio Ermotti。

Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，莎拉，大家早安。

Before we provide an update on how we are delivering on our priorities to meet our 2026 commitments, let me share some highlights for 2024.

在我們介紹如何落實我們的優先事項以實現 2026 年承諾的最新進展之前，讓我先分享一下 2024 年的一些亮點。

Strong fourth-quarter results contributed to an even stronger full-year financial performance as we rebuilt profitability across our businesses.

隨著我們重建整個業務的獲利能力，強勁的第四季度業績為全年財務表現帶來了更強勁的貢獻。

Our full-year net profit of $5.1 billion and underlying return on CET1 capital of 8.7%, reflect our unwavering commitment to serving our clients, our diversified global franchise and the disciplined progress we have made on our integration plans.

我們全年淨利潤為 51 億美元，普通股一級資本基本回報率為 8.7%，這反映了我們堅定不移地致力於服務客戶、我們多元化的全球特許經營權以及我們在整合計劃上取得的有序進展。

Throughout 2024, we maintained robust momentum as we captured growth across our global asset gathering platform and gained market share in the investment bank in the areas where we have made strategic investments.

在整個 2024 年，我們保持了強勁的發展勢頭，我們的全球資產聚集平台實現了成長，並在我們進行策略性投資的領域的投資銀行中獲得了市場份額。

With over CHF70 billion of loans granted or renewed during the year and outstanding balance of CHF350 billion, we also maintain our commitment as a reliable partner for the Swiss economy, supporting families and businesses to achieve their goals.

我們全年發放或續發的貸款超過700億瑞士法郎，未償還餘額達3500億瑞士法郎，我們也將繼續致力於成為瑞士經濟的可靠合作夥伴，支持家庭和企業實現他們的目標。

We delivered on all of our key integration milestones in 2024, including all major legal entity mergers and the successful completion of our client account migrations in Luxembourg, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan in the fourth quarter.

我們在 2024 年實現了所有關鍵的整合里程碑，包括所有主要法人實體合併以及第四季度成功完成盧森堡、香港、新加坡和日本的客戶帳戶遷移。

This builds upon the successful integration of our key operating entities, the optimization of our balance sheet and the reduction of cost and risk-weighted assets in non-core and legacy.

這是建立在我們主要經營實體的成功整合、資產負債表的優化以及非核心和遺留成本和風險加權資產的減少的基礎上的。

Combined, these milestones have significantly reduced the execution risk of the Credit Suisse acquisition.

這些里程碑結合起來，大大降低了瑞信收購的執行風險。

As a result, we remain confident in our ability to substantially complete the integration and deliver on our financial targets by the end of 2026.

因此，我們仍然有信心在 2026 年底前基本完成整合並實現我們的財務目標。

Our capital position remains robust as we ended the year with a CET1 capital ratio of 14.3%.

我們的資本狀況依然強勁，年底的 CET1 資本比率為 14.3%。

For the financial year 2024, we intend to propose a dividend of $0.90, representing a 29% increase year on year.

對於 2024 財年，我們打算派發 0.90 美元的股息，年增 29%。

This is in line with our intention to calibrate the proportion of cash dividends and share repurchases.

這符合我們調整現金分紅和股票回購比例的意圖。

As we execute on our business and integration plans, we are building additional capacity to invest in our people and to enhance our products and capabilities.

在執行業務和整合計劃的同時，我們正在建立額外的能力來投資我們的人才並增強我們的產品和能力。

This will allow us to better serve our clients and position UBS for future success.

這將使我們能夠更好地服務客戶，並為瑞銀未來的成功做好準備。

That includes the Americas, a region that remains a core component of both our asset gathering foundation and our capital-efficient business model.

其中包括美洲，該地區仍然是我們資產聚集基礎和資本高效商業模式的核心組成部分。

In 2024, we started to make changes across the business to introduce new capabilities that will help increase the operating leverage of our platform, improve profitability and drive sustainable growth.

2024 年，我們開始在整個業務範圍內進行變革，引入新功能，這將有助於提高我們平台的營運槓桿、提高獲利能力並推動永續成長。

Across all of our businesses and supporting functions, we continue to invest in technology, leveraging our strong foundation to improve the client experience and enhance how we operate.

在我們的所有業務和支援職能中，我們持續投資於技術，利用我們強大的基礎來改善客戶體驗並增強我們的營運方式。

Now, I hand over to Todd who will cover the fourth-quarter results.

現在，我將麥克風交給托德，他將負責第四季的業績。

Thank you, Sergio, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，塞爾吉奧，大家早安。

Throughout my remarks, I'll refer to underlying results in US dollars and make year-over-year comparisons unless stated otherwise.

在我的整個發言過程中，除非另有說明，我都會參考以美元計算的基本結果並進行同比比較。

For the fourth quarter, profit before tax tripled to $1.8 billion.

第四季度，稅前利潤成長兩倍，達到 18 億美元。

Revenue momentum in our core franchises and cost synergies across the group drove a 12-point improvement in operating leverage.

我們核心特許經營的收入成長動能和整個集團的成本協同效應推動經營槓桿提高了 12 個百分點。

Our EPS for the quarter was $0.23 with a 7.2% underlying return on CET1 capital.

本季我們的每股盈餘為 0.23 美元，CET1 資本基礎報酬率為 7.2%。

Our underlying cost-to-income ratio was 82%.

我們的基本成本收入比為82%。

Looking at the drivers of our fourth-quarter group performance on slide 5, total revenues rose by 6% to $11 billion, driven mainly by strong topline growth in Global Wealth Management and the Investment Bank, powered by our capabilities and advice and supportive market conditions.

從第 5 頁的投影片來看我們第四季集團業績的驅動因素，總收入成長 6%，達到 110 億美元，主要得益於全球財富管理和投資銀行的強勁營收成長，這得益於我們的能力和建議以及支持性的市場條件。

Operating expenses declined by 6% year over year to $9.1 billion and were 1% lower sequentially as progress on synergies and a stronger US dollar more than offset the expected 4Q tick-up in non-personnel expenses.

營業費用年減 6% 至 91 億美元，環比下降 1%，因為協同效應的進展和美元的走強抵消了預期第四季度非人事費用的上漲。

This achievement was supported by a lower overall employee count, which fell sequentially by another 2% to below 129,000.

這項成績的取得得益於員工總數的下降，員工總數較上季下降 2%，至 129,000 名以下。

The total staff count is down 27,000 or 17% from our 2022 baseline.

與 2022 年基準相比，員工總數減少了 27,000 人，即 17%。

Excluding litigation, variable compensation and currency effects, operating expenses decreased by 9% year over year.

除去訴訟、可變薪酬和貨幣效應，營業費用較去年同期下降了 9%。

The 4% quarter-over-quarter increase was caused by seasonally higher charges, including the UK bank levy and increased marketing expenditures.

環比成長 4% 是由於季節性費用上漲，包括英國銀行稅和行銷支出增加。

Our reported profit before tax for the quarter included $0.7 billion of revenue adjustments relating to PPA effects, a remeasurement loss of $0.1 billion on an investment in an associate and $1.3 billion of integration-related expenses.

我們報告的本季稅前利潤包括與 PPA 效應相關的 7 億美元收入調整、對一家聯營公司投資的 1 億美元重估損失以及 13 億美元的整合相關費用。

Reported net profit was $0.8 billion in the quarter on an effective tax rate of 26%.

本季報告的淨利潤為 8 億美元，有效稅率為 26%。

We expect a similar tax rate in the first quarter.

我們預計第一季的稅率也差不多。

Turning to our business divisions and starting with Global Wealth Management on slide 6.

轉向我們的業務部門，從第 6 張投影片上的全球財富管理開始。

GWM's pre-tax profit was $1.1 billion, an increase of over 80% as revenues grew by 10%.

長城汽車的稅前利潤為 11 億美元，成長超過 80%，收入也成長了 10%。

Excluding litigation charges, PBT rose to $1.2 billion.

若不計訴訟費用，稅前利潤則增加至 12 億美元。

Net new assets reached $18 billion, and net new fee-generating assets were $13 billion, fueled by sales of mandates and separately managed accounts.

受授權銷售和獨立管理帳戶推動，淨新增資產達 180 億美元，淨新增費用資產達 130 億美元。

Flow performance this quarter reflects the maturity of over $50 billion of fixed-term deposits associated with our 2023 win-back campaign.

本季的流量表現反映了與我們 2023 年贏回活動相關的超過 500 億美元定期存款的到期。

Like in previous quarters, we managed to retain over 85% on our platform, including converting over 20% into more profitable solutions, including mandates.

與前幾季一樣，我們成功保留了平台上 85% 以上的客戶，其中 20% 以上轉化為更有利可圖的解決方案（包括授權）。

For the full year 2024, we acquired net new assets of $97 billion, representing a 2.5% growth rate.

2024年全年，我們收購的淨新資產為970億美元，成長率為2.5%。

As I've highlighted in the past, our net new asset achievement this year reflects several challenges that we successfully navigated over the course of 2024.

正如我過去所強調的那樣，我們今年的淨新資產成就反映了我們在 2024 年成功應對的若干挑戰。

This includes retaining the vast majority of Credit Suisse invested assets despite significant levels of relationship manager attrition, keeping the bulk of maturing fixed term deposits, as just mentioned in the context of 4Q, and increasing profitability on sub-hurdle-lending relationships from our balance sheet optimization efforts.

這包括儘管關係經理大量流失，但仍保留瑞信投資的絕大部分資產，保留大部分到期的定期存款（正如剛才在第四季度中提到的），以及透過資產負債表優化工作提高低門檻貸款關係的盈利能力。

Collectively, while these factors weighed down flows by around $30 billion, importantly, they've contributed to enhanced profitability and returns.

總的來說，雖然這些因素導致資金流入減少約 300 億美元，但重要的是，它們有助於提高獲利能力和回報率。

This is evidenced by the 3-percentage-point year-over-year increase in revenues over RWA.

營收與 RWA 之比年增 3 個百分點證明了這一點。

Recurring net fee income increased by 12% to $3.3 billion, as our invested assets grew sequentially to $4.2 trillion, absorbing roughly $80 billion in FX headwinds.

經常性淨費用收入成長 12%，達到 33 億美元，因為我們的投資資產較上季成長至 4.2 兆美元，吸收了約 800 億美元的外匯逆風。

Client traction with mandates remained strong with around $5 billion in net new mandates globally, mainly driven by sales of our differentiated discretionary solutions and supported by continued momentum in SMAs in the US.

客戶對授權的吸引力依然強勁，全球淨新授權約為 50 億美元，主要得益於我們差異化的全權委託解決方案的銷售，並受到美國 SMA 持續發展勢頭的支持。

Margins held up sequentially and are expected to remain around these levels, especially as recently migrated clients and those remaining on the Credit Suisse platform now have access to the full breadth of our CIO value-chain-led offering.

利潤率連續保持穩定，預計將保持在這些水平左右，特別是因為最近遷移的客戶和留在瑞信平台上的客戶現在可以享受我們由 CIO 價值鏈主導的全部產品。

This quarter, we once again demonstrated the benefits of combining our leading market solutions and capabilities with our CIO's investment calls.

本季度，我們再次展示了將我們領先的市場解決方案和能力與我們的資訊長的投資呼籲相結合的好處。

This drove a 12% increase in transaction-based revenues in an environment that saw broad re-risking after the US elections.

在美國大選後普遍出現重新承擔風險的環境下，這推動了基於交易的收入成長了 12%。

Structured products, equities and alternatives all recorded double-digit transaction revenue increases.

結構性產品、股票和另類產品的交易收入均達到兩位數成長。

Our investments in capabilities, solutions and unified teams support the durability of this revenue line and fuel our ability to capture wallet share in all climates.

我們對能力、解決方案和統一團隊的投資支持了這條收入線的持久性，並增強了我們在各種環境下獲得錢包份額的能力。

Year-on-year transaction revenue growth was led by APAC and the Americas, up by 30% and 13%, respectively.

交易收入年增主要由亞太地區和美洲地區推動，分別成長了30%和13%。

Net interest income at $1.7 billion was up 4% sequentially, reflecting improvements in both lending and deposit margins.

淨利息收入為 17 億美元，季增 4%，反映出貸款和存款利潤率的提高。

While fixed-term deposit balances decreased in the quarter, we saw inflows into sweeps and current accounts across our platform as our clients increased transactional balances in a constructive trading environment.

雖然本季定期存款餘額有所減少，但由於我們的客戶在積極的交易環境中增加了交易餘額，我們看到整個平台的清算和活期帳戶都有資金流入。

I would note that the planned sweep deposit pricing changes I mentioned previously went into effect for our US advisory accounts in early December.

我要指出的是，我之前提到的計劃中的清算存款定價變化已於 12 月初對我們的美國諮詢帳戶生效。

Our 2025 outlook as a result of introducing these rate adjustments remains unchanged.

在引入這些利率調整後，我們對 2025 年的展望保持不變。

Turning to our NII outlook for GWM.

談談我們對長城汽車的 NII 展望。

Since I offered an initial view on 2025 last quarter, we've seen a significant divergence in rates expectations between the US dollar on the one hand and the Swiss franc and euro on the other.

自從我在上個季度提出對 2025 年的初步看法以來，我們看到美元與瑞士法郎和歐元之間的利率預期存在顯著差異。

This distinction is important for GWM.

這一區別對於長城汽車來說非常重要。

While our US business is effectively operated entirely in US dollars, in GWM's businesses outside the US, half of all deposits and the majority of loans and low beta transactional account balances are denominated in currencies other than the US dollar.

雖然我們的美國業務實際上完全以美元運營，但在長城汽車美國以外的業務中，一半的存款以及大部分貸款和低貝塔交易帳戶餘額都是以美元以外的貨幣計價的。

Looking at the rates outlook, the Federal Reserve is now expected to cut US dollar rates more gradually.

從利率前景來看，目前預計聯準會將更加漸進地下調美元利率。

Meanwhile, both the Swiss and the European central banks are expected to continue to more actively cut.

同時，預計瑞士和歐洲央行都將繼續更積極地降息。

Based on this, in the first quarter, we expect to see headwinds from lower rates, particularly in the Swiss franc and euro and lower balances from deployment of sweep and transactional account balances, partially offset by higher margins from balance sheet optimization.

基於此，我們預計第一季將面臨來自利率降低（尤其是瑞士法郎和歐元）以及清算帳戶和交易帳戶餘額降低的阻力，但資產負債表優化帶來的更高利潤率將部分抵消這一阻力。

Combined with a lower day count effect, this is expected to result in a low to mid-single-digit percentage sequential decrease in GWM's NII.

結合較低的天數效應，預計這將導致長城汽車的 NII 百分比持續下降低至中等個位數。

Looking further out, lower Swiss franc and euro rates will remain a headwind to deposit margins, partially offset by the benefits of continued balance sheet optimization, particularly on the deposit side.

放遠來看，瑞士法郎和歐元利率走低仍將對存款保證金產生不利影響，但資產負債表持續優化（尤其是存款方面）的好處將部分抵銷這一影響。

Net new loan growth should also help.

淨新增貸款成長也應有所幫助。

I should note that if we do see a more hawkish US dollar rates policy, while helpful to deposit margins, this is likely to moderate the extent of releveraging, particularly in Lombard lending.

我應該指出的是，如果我們確實看到更強硬的美元利率政策，雖然這有助於存款保證金，但這可能會緩和再槓桿化的程度，特別是在倫巴第貸款領域。

For full year 2025, compared to 2024, we expect a low-single-digit percentage decrease in NII, inflecting by 2Q with the second half of the year broadly flat versus 2H '24.

與 2024 年相比，我們預計 2025 年全年 NII 將出現低個位數百分比下降，並將在第二季度受到影響，而下半年將與 2024 年下半年基本持平。

Underlying operating expenses were unchanged from last year at $4.8 billion, with lower personnel and support costs, offset by higher variable compensation tied to revenues and increased litigation provisions.

基本營運費用與去年同期相比持平，為 48 億美元，其中人員和支援成本有所降低，但與收入掛鉤的浮動薪酬增加以及訴訟準備金增加抵消了部分影響。

To offer a look-through comparison, excluding litigation, variable compensation, FX and last year's FDIC special assessment, costs were down 5% year over year.

為了提供直觀的比較，不包括訴訟、可變薪酬、外匯和去年的 FDIC 特別評估，成本比去年同期下降了 5%。

Turning to Personal and Corporate Banking on slide 7.

前往投影片 7 上的個人和公司銀行業務。

P&C delivered fourth-quarter pre-tax profit of CHF572 million, down 18%, primarily from lower interest rates affecting net interest income, down 8% and elevated credit loss expense.

財產及意外險第四季稅前利潤為 5.72 億瑞士法郎，下降 18%，主要由於利率下降影響淨利息收入，下降 8% 以及信貸損失費用增加。

Recurring net fee income increased by 8%, driven by higher volumes of investment products and gross margin expansion.

受投資產品數量增加及毛利率擴大的推動，經常性淨費用收入增加了 8%。

Transaction-based revenues were up 13%, also on higher client activity.

由於客戶活動增加，基於交易的收入成長了 13%。

Sequentially, NII decreased slightly by 1%.

與上一季相比，NII 小幅下降了 1%。

We offset some of the effects of the SNB's third 25-basis-point rate cut from late September by moderately decreasing deposit rates and pricing loans to appropriately reflect risk and capital costs.

我們透過適度降低存款利率和貸款定價以適當反映風險和資本成本，抵消了瑞士央行自 9 月底以來第三次降息 25 個基點的部分影響。

After the 50-basis-point cut by the SNB in December, there is a reasonable likelihood that we'll see interest rates drop to zero by mid-2025.

在瑞士央行 12 月降息 50 個基點之後，到 2025 年中期，利率很有可能會降到零。

The impact of near-zero rates will drive down deposit margins both sequentially and for the full year 2025.

接近零利率的影響將導致存款保證金率環比下降以及 2025 年全年下降。

Additional headwinds in 1Q are expected from the sequential day count effect and lower rates in US dollar and euro affecting deposit margins on transactional accounts.

預計第一季將出現更多不利因素，包括連續計日效應以及美元和歐元利率下降影響交易帳戶的存款保證金。

Hence, for P&Cs, Swiss franc NII, we currently expect a roughly 10% sequential decline in the first quarter.

因此，對於財產保險和意外險、瑞士法郎NII，我們目前預計第一季將季減約10%。

For full year 2025, the drop will be somewhat more pronounced versus 2024, with NII expected to trough in the second quarter and plateau thereafter.

就 2025 年全年而言，降幅將比 2024 年更為明顯，預計 NII 將在第二季觸底，隨後進入穩定狀態。

From there, any move in interest rates, whether negative or positive, should be constructive to our NII and net interest margin in P&C.

從那時起，任何利率變動，無論是正向的還是負向的，都應該對我們的 NII 和財產及意外事故的淨利差產生積極影響。

Credit loss expense was CHF155 million, a 25-basis-point cost of risk on an average loan portfolio of $243 billion.

信用損失費用為1.55億瑞士法郎，相當於2,430億美元平均貸款組合的風險成本25個基點。

The quarterly result was driven by Stage 3 charges, predominantly from new venture financings and loans to corporates in the metals and automotive industries, which have shown financial vulnerability in a challenging market environment across Europe.

季度業績受到第三階段費用的推動，主要是來自新風險融資和對金屬和汽車行業企業的貸款，這些企業在整個歐洲充滿挑戰的市場環境中表現出財務脆弱性。

These exposures, by and large, are on the Credit Suisse platform, reflecting lending practices and underwriting standards from the pre-acquisition period.

整體而言，這些風險敞口都在瑞信平台上，反映了收購前的貸款實務和承保標準。

We expect CLE to remain elevated at around CHF350 million in 2025, as we continue to build allowances for pre-acquisition Credit Suisse portfolios with many exposures still having more than a year until maturity.

我們預計，到 2025 年，CLE 將保持在 3.5 億瑞士法郎左右的高位，因為我們將繼續為收購前的瑞信投資組合建立準備金，其中許多風險敞口距離到期還有一年多的時間。

In the first quarter, we may see lower CLE versus the implied quarterly average due to seasonal factors.

在第一季度，由於季節性因素，我們可能會看到 CLE 低於隱含的季度平均值。

Operating expenses in P&C were CHF1.1 billion, up 2% and flat sequentially as the business offset increased investments in building up support functions related to its larger footprint through cost reduction initiatives and synergy realization.

財產和意外傷害保險業務的營業費用為 11 億瑞士法郎，增長 2%，與上一季度持平，因為該業務通過降低成本的舉措和實現協同效應抵消了與其擴大業務範圍相關的支持職能建設方面增加的投資。

Moving to Asset Management on slide 8.

前往投影片 8 上的資產管理。

Pre-tax profit increased by 20% to $224 million as strong cost discipline more than offset lower revenues.

稅前利潤成長 20%，達到 2.24 億美元，因為嚴格的成本控制足以抵消收入下降的影響。

Overall revenues were down 7% or 6% excluding gains on asset sales.

整體收入下降了 7%，若不包括資產出售收益則下降了 6%。

Net management fees declined by 5%, mainly from continuing shifts out of active equities compressing topline margins.

淨管理費下降了 5%，主要原因是活躍股票持續撤出壓縮了營業利益率。

Performance fees were $44 million, compared to $52 million in the prior year quarter, with improvement in hedge fund solutions, more than offset by decreases across other products, including fixed income funds.

績效費用為 4,400 萬美元，而去年同期為 5,200 萬美元，對沖基金解決方案的改善抵消了包括固定收益基金在內的其他產品的下降。

Net new money in the quarter was positive $33 billion, led by a large institutional inflow in passive equities and net flows into money market funds.

本季淨新增資金為正 330 億美元，主要原因是大量機構資金流入被動股票市場以及淨流入貨幣市場基金。

For the full year 2024, net new money was $45 billion, a strong result in light of flow dis-synergies we were expecting from integrating Credit Suisse Asset Management.

2024 年全年，淨新資金為 450 億美元，考慮到我們預計整合瑞信資產管理後將產生的流量不協同效應，這是一個強勁的結果。

Operating expenses were 15% lower, both year over year and sequentially, as the business is demonstrating good progress in transforming its operating model and driving cost saves.

由於業務在轉變營運模式和節省成本方面取得了良好進展，營運費用年比和季比均下降了 15%。

On to slide 9 and the Investment Bank.

前往第 9 張投影片和投資銀行。

Pre-tax profit of $452 million was driven by strong revenue performance, up 37% year on year.

強勁的營收表現推動稅前利潤達到 4.52 億美元，年增 37%。

Banking revenues increased by 19% to $675 million with advisory up 36% and LCM, which more than doubled its revenues, the main drivers of growth.

銀行業務收入成長 19%，達到 6.75 億美元，其中諮詢業務成長 36%，LCM 收入成長一倍以上，是成長的主要動力。

Regionally, we saw a particular strength in the Americas, up 33%.

從地區來看，美洲地區表現特別強勁，成長了 33%。

Markets revenues increased by 44% to $1.9 billion, with increased client activity on higher cash volumes and supportive volatility across equities and FX.

市場收入成長 44%，達到 19 億美元，得益於現金量增加、客戶活動增加以及股票和外匯波動性增強。

This led to our best fourth-quarter markets revenue on record with particular strength in financing, supported by all-time high client balances.

這使得我們第四季度的市場收入創下了有史以來的最佳水平，其中融資實力尤為強勁，並受到歷史最高客戶餘額的支持。

For markets, regional revenues in the Americas and APAC surged by around 50% and grew by about a third in EMEA, driven by broad-based increases across both equities and FRC.

就市場而言，美洲和亞太地區的區域收入飆升約 50%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的區域收入成長約三分之一，這得益於股票和 FRC 的廣泛成長。

Operating expenses were down 4% on lower personnel costs.

由於人員成本降低，營運費用下降了 4%。

On slide 10, non-core and legacy's pre-tax loss in the quarter was $606 million.

在投影片 10 上，本季非核心和遺留業務的稅前虧損為 6.06 億美元。

Revenues were negative $58 million, mainly reflecting funding costs that, unlike in prior quarters, were not offset by gains on exits or the carry in our now much smaller credit book.

收入為負 5,800 萬美元，主要反映融資成本，與前幾個季度不同，這些成本沒有被退出收益或我們現在小得多的信貸帳簿中的收益所抵消。

Operating expenses were down by nearly 50% year on year and 5% sequentially as we continue to make good progress in driving out costs.

由於我們在降低成本方面繼續取得良好進展，營業費用年減近 50％，環比下降 5％。

NCL risk-weighted assets were $41 billion, down $3 billion sequentially, mainly from position exits.

NCL 風險加權資產為 410 億美元，比上一季減少 30 億美元，主要因為部位退出。

LRD was down $15 billion or 22% quarter on quarter.

LRD 環比下降 150 億美元，下降 22%。

Turning to our capital and balance sheet position on slide 11.

轉向第 11 頁的資本和資產負債表狀況。

As of the end of the fourth quarter, our balance sheet for all seasons consisted of $1.6 trillion in total assets, including around $600 billion in end-of-period loans and $750 billion in end-of-period deposits.

截至第四季末，我們四季的資產負債表包括 1.6 兆美元的總資產，其中包括約 6,000 億美元的期末貸款和 7,500 億美元的期末存款。

Our loan portfolio reflected credit impaired exposures of 1%, up sequentially by 4 basis points.

我們的貸款組合反映出 1% 的信用減損風險，比上一季上升了 4 個基點。

The cost of risk in the quarter increased to 15 basis points as credit loss expense in our Swiss business drove this measure higher.

由於瑞士業務的信貸損失費用推高了這項指標，本季的風險成本上升至 15 個基點。

We ended the year with a sequentially unchanged CET1 capital ratio of 14.3% as a decline in CET1 capital of $2.8 billion was offset by a proportionate decrease in risk-weighted assets of $21 billion. CET1

截至本財年年底，我們的 CET1 資本比率與上一季持平，為 14.3%，因為 CET1 資本的減少額為 28 億美元，但風險加權資產的相應減少額為 210 億美元，抵消了這一減少。大學英語四級考試（CET1）

capital was mainly affected by the stronger US dollar as well as by higher cash taxes and dividend accruals, more than offsetting quarterly profits.

資本主要受到美元走強以及現金稅和股息應計額增加的影響，超過了季度利潤的影響。

RWA, likewise, was lower on currency effects as well as asset size reductions, mainly in the IB and NCL.

同樣地，由於貨幣效應以及資產規模縮減，RWA 也較低，主要集中在 IB 和 NCL。

To summarize, our fourth-quarter performance caps off a strong 2024, in which our non-core and legacy team successfully ran down balance sheet and costs and our core franchises demonstrated strength and scale in delivering for our clients even while absorbing substantial costs associated with the integration.

總而言之，我們第四季度的業績為強勁的 2024 年畫上了句號，在這一年中，我們的非核心和傳統團隊成功降低了資產負債表和成本，我們的核心特許經營權在為客戶提供服務方面展現了實力和規模，同時吸收了與整合相關的大量成本。

With that, I hand back to Sergio for the investor update.

說完這些，我將麥克風交還給 Sergio，請他向投資者報告最新情況。

Thank you, Todd.

謝謝你，托德。

And for over a decade, UBS has been a source of strength and stability for all of our stakeholders, thanks to the consistent execution of our capital generative strategy and a commitment to maintaining a balance sheet for all seasons.

十多年來，瑞銀始終如一地執行資本生成策略，並致力於維持四季資產負債表，因此一直是我們所有利害關係人的力量和穩定來源。

Our global capabilities empower strong collaboration across our businesses to deliver the best of UBS to our clients, and our disciplined focus on risk and efficiency is at the forefront of our culture.

我們的全球能力促進了我們各業務部門之間的強有力協作，從而為我們的客戶提供瑞銀的最佳服務，而我們對風險和效率的嚴格關注是我們文化的重中之重。

This is why our clients continue to extend their trust and confidence in UBS and our employees are proud to work here.

這就是為什麼我們的客戶繼續對瑞銀保持信任和信心，而我們的員工也為在這裡工作感到自豪。

It is how we generate significant value for our shareholders while remaining a consistent and reliable economic partner in the communities where we operate.

這就是我們如何為股東創造巨大價值，同時在我們經營所在的社區繼續保持穩定和可靠的經濟合作夥伴的地位。

And it has also allowed us to be a source of financial stability for Switzerland and the wider financial system in March 2023.

這也使我們在2023年3月成為瑞士和更廣泛的金融體系的金融穩定來源。

The same principal guide us as we build an even stronger, safer and more efficient firm and position UBS for sustainably higher returns and long-term growth.

同樣的原則指導我們建立更強大、更安全、更有效率的公司，並讓瑞銀實現可持續的更高回報和長期成長。

Our unique business model with our asset gathering business is generating around 60% of our revenues provides us with an attractive risk and return profile that continues to stand out among our global peers.

我們獨特的商業模式和資產聚集業務創造了約60%的收入，為我們提供了頗具吸引力的風險和回報狀況，在全球同行中繼續脫穎而出。

We are the largest truly global wealth manager and the leading universal bank in Switzerland.

我們是瑞士最大的真正全球財富管理公司和領先的全能銀行。

These two key pillars of our strategy are enhanced by a portfolio of best-in-class capabilities across asset management and our competitive but capital-light investment bank.

我們策略的這兩個關鍵支柱透過資產管理領域一流的能力組合和我們具有競爭力但資本較少的投資銀行而得到增強。

With leading franchises in the world's largest and fastest-growing markets, our regional diversification is a strategic advantage and also provides us unique value for both our clients and investors.

憑藉在全球最大和成長最快的市場中的領先特許經營權，我們的區域多元化是一種策略優勢，也為我們的客戶和投資者提供了獨特的價值。

Turning to the integration.

轉向整合。

As I highlighted earlier, we are on track with our plans, thanks to the successful delivery of our key objectives in 2024, having completed over 4,000 milestones during the year.

正如我之前強調的那樣，由於我們在 2024 年成功實現了關鍵目標，並且在這一年中完成了 4,000 多個里程碑，我們的計劃正在順利進行中。

Following the merger of our parent banks, we have now migrated over 90% of client accounts outside of Switzerland on to UBS platforms.

隨著母行合併，我們目前已將瑞士以外 90% 以上的客戶帳戶遷移至瑞銀平台。

In addition, the integration of the Investment Bank is now complete.

此外，投資銀行的整合現已完成。

And in Asset Management, we made good progress, migrating portfolios onto our infrastructure and rationalizing our fund shelf.

在資產管理方面，我們取得了良好的進展，將投資組合遷移到我們的基礎設施上，並合理化我們的基金架。

We also continue to follow our technology decommissioning roadmap.

我們也將繼續遵循我們的技術退役路線圖。

To date, we have removed over 40% of non-core and legacy applications, worked through 16 petabytes of data and reduced the number of legacy servers by over 40%.

到目前為止，我們已經刪除了超過 40% 的非核心和遺留應用程序，處理了 16 PB 的數據，並將遺留伺服器的數量減少了 40% 以上。

Thanks to our restructuring efforts and the active wind down of NCL, we have captured almost 60% of our targeted $13 billion gross cost savings.

由於我們的重組努力和 NCL 的積極關閉，我們已實現了 130 億美元總成本節約目標的近 60%。

We will look to maintain this momentum in 2025 as our focus shifts to migrating the majority of client accounts in Switzerland and decommissioning over 1,200 Credit Suisse models and applications.

我們希望在 2025 年保持這一勢頭，因為我們的重點將轉向遷移瑞士的大多數客戶帳戶並停用超過 1,200 個瑞信模型和應用程式。

We have always said that our progress on the integration of Credit Suisse will not be a straight line.

我們一直說，我們對瑞信整合的進展不會是一帆風順的。

Our performance in 2025 will continue to reflect significant restructuring work necessary to integrate our businesses and right size our cost base.

我們 2025 年的業績將繼續反映整合業務和合理確定成本基礎所需的重大重組工作。

Having said that, our progress to date supports an incremental improvement in our returns this year compared to our previous guidance.

話雖如此，與我們之前的預期相比，我們迄今為止的進展支持我們今年的回報逐步提高。

We remain confident in our ability to substantially complete the integration and deliver on our targets and ambitions by the end of 2026.

我們堅信，我們有能力在 2026 年底前基本完成整合並實現我們的目標和抱負。

At the same time, we will continue to invest to drive sustainable growth and long-term value beyond the integration.

同時，我們將繼續投資，推動整合之外的永續成長和長期價值。

Investing in technology to benefit our clients and empower our colleagues is one of the key ways we are preparing for the future.

投資科技以造福我們的客戶並增強我們的同事的能力是我們為未來做好準備的關鍵方法之一。

We continue to invest in our best-in-class cloud infrastructure with over 70% in the public and private cloud.

我們將繼續投資一流的雲端基礎設施，其中 70% 以上投資於公有雲和私有雲。

This is a key facilitator of our integration progress, allowing us to reduce complexity and cost as we remove legacy applications while maintaining our compliance and security standards.

這是我們整合進程的關鍵推動因素，使我們能夠在刪除遺留應用程式的同時降低複雜性和成本，同時保持我們的合規性和安全性標準。

It is also an important catalyst for innovation as we continue to invest in tools to enhance our client offering and increase efficiency and effectiveness.

隨著我們不斷投資於工具以增強我們的客戶服務並提高效率和效力，它也是創新的重要催化劑。

A good example is our rollout of 50,000 Microsoft Copilot licenses to our employees in the largest deployment within the global financial services industry to date.

一個很好的例子就是我們向員工推出了 50,000 個 Microsoft Copilot 許可證，這是迄今為止全球金融服務業內規模最大的部署。

We are also seeing strong benefits from our proprietary generative AI solutions.

我們也從專有的生成式 AI 解決方案中看到了巨大的優勢。

One example is in the US where we -- our advanced analytics platform supported our financial advisers with over 13 million automated insights and actionable opportunities.

一個例子是在美國，我們的先進分析平台為我們的財務顧問提供了超過 1300 萬個自動化見解和可操作的機會。

Solutions like this improved productivity and our ability to deliver tailored solutions to our clients.

此類解決方案提高了生產力和我們為客戶提供客製化解決方案的能力。

We are on track to deliver on our 2026 exit rate ambitions across our core businesses.

我們正在按計劃實現核心業務的 2026 年退出率目標。

While we are encouraged by our progress to date, this slide also reflects the significant work that lies ahead to achieve our objectives.

雖然我們對迄今為止的進展感到鼓舞，但這張投影片也反映了實現我們目標所需的重要工作。

In GWM, we remain focused on leveraging our enhanced capabilities and solutions to maintain client momentum.

在長城汽車，我們將繼續專注於利用我們增強的能力和解決方案來保持客戶發展勢頭。

At the same time, we aim to capture the benefits of integration-related synergies and improved adviser productivity.

同時，我們力求獲得與整合相關的綜效並提高顧問生產力所帶來的好處。

With the client account migration achieved in APAC, we are even better placed to leverage our number one position in the region to drive market-leading growth.

隨著亞太地區客戶帳戶遷移的實現，我們更有能力利用我們在該地區的領先地位來推動市場領先的成長。

In the Americas, we are making targeted investments to deepen relationships with our ultra-high net worth clients, accelerated growth in the high net worth and core affluent segments and expand our loan and deposit offering.

在美洲，我們正在進行有針對性的投資，以加深與超高淨值客戶的關係，加速高淨值和核心富裕階層的成長，並擴大我們的貸款和存款服務。

These growth initiatives will be supported by actions we have already taken to enhance our technology offering, simplify our organizational structure and improve execution.

這些成長計畫將得到我們已經採取的行動的支持，以增強我們的技術產品、簡化我們的組織結構和提高執行力。

I'm confident in our ability to deliver mid-teen PBT margins as we exit 2026.

我相信，到 2026 年，我們有能力實現中等程度的稅前利潤率。

Then, the business will be better positioned to further expand profit margin and capture long-term growth.

如此一來，企業將能更好地進一步擴大利潤率並實現長期成長。

Todd will take you through our plans in more detail.

托德將向您更詳細地了解我們的計劃。

In P&C, we are -- as we have said previously, declining Swiss franc rates are expected to continue to affect revenues.

在財產和意外險方面，正如我們之前所說，瑞士法郎匯率下降預計將繼續影響收入。

We are still de facto operating two separate banks, including branches, staff and technology, but we are well positioned to start delivering cost synergies later this year and into 2026 as we unite those platforms.

我們實際上仍在經營兩家獨立的銀行，包括分行、員工和技術，但隨著這些平台的整合，我們已做好準備，在今年稍後以及 2026 年開始實現成本協同效應。

Unfortunately, as we reported previously, this will lead to certain role reductions in Switzerland.

不幸的是，正如我們之前報導的那樣，這將導致瑞士的某些職位減少。

We plan to mitigate the impact of these as much as possible through natural attrition, early retirement and other measures.

我們計劃透過自然減員、提早退休和其他措施盡可能減輕這些影響。

For those impacted, we will provide proactive support in helping to find a new job and a comprehensive social plan that combines the strongest components of the prior UBS and Credit Suisse plans.

對於那些受到影響的人，我們將提供積極支持，幫助他們找到新工作，並提供一個綜合的社會計劃，該計劃結合了先前瑞銀和瑞信計劃中最強大的組成部分。

I'm also especially proud of efforts to prioritize the hiring of internal candidates.

我也對優先聘用內部候選人的努力特別感到自豪。

Over two-thirds of open position in Switzerland were filled this way in 2024.

2024年，瑞士超過三分之二的空缺職位將以這種方式填補。

In Asset Management, we remain focused on continuing to capture opportunities where we have a differentiated and scalable offering.

在資產管理方面，我們仍然專注於繼續抓住提供差異化和可擴展產品的機會。

This includes our newly launched unified global alternatives unit, which makes us the fifth largest limited partner in alternatives with promising growth prospects.

其中包括我們新推出的統一的全球替代品部門，這使我們成為具有良好成長前景的替代品領域第五大有限合夥人。

At the same time, we will remain focused on realizing cost synergies and structural efficiencies to create capacity for investment and improve profitability.

同時，我們將繼續致力於實現成本協同效應和結構效率，以創造投資能力並提高獲利能力。

In the Investment Bank, I'm encouraged by the progress of -- by the progress our fully integrated teams are making to deliver for clients as we seize market share gains in our areas of strategic importance.

在投資銀行，我們全面整合的團隊在為客戶提供服務方面取得了長足進步，我們在具有戰略重要性的領域搶佔了市場份額，這讓我深受鼓舞。

As we continue to deploy our products and services across our broader institutional client base and increased connectivity to GWM and P&C to deliver on our return ambitions, we will maintain our well-established risk and capital discipline.

隨著我們繼續向更廣泛的機構客戶群部署我們的產品和服務，並加強與長城汽車和財產保險的聯繫以實現我們的回報目標，我們將保持完善的風險和資本紀律。

Turning to capital.

轉向資本。

We continue to target a CET1 capital ratio of around 14%.

我們繼續將 CET1 資本比率目標設定為 14% 左右。

At this level, we will be able to go through the integration period and beyond with a strong capital buffer relative to minimum requirements.

在這個層面上，我們將能夠以相對於最低要求的強大資本緩衝度過整合期及以後的時期。

This will allow us to remain a source of stability while we self-fund growth and deliver attractive capital returns to our shareholders.

這將使我們在自籌資金實現成長並為股東帶來可觀的資本回報的同時，繼續成為穩定的來源。

For the 2025 financial year, we plan to accrue for an increase in our dividend of around 10%.

對於 2025 財年，我們計劃將股利增加 10% 左右。

We also plan to repurchase another $1 billion of shares in the first half of this year, and up to an additional $2 billion in the second half.

我們也計劃在今年上半年再回購價值 10 億美元的股票，下半年再回購最多 20 億美元的股票。

As in the past, our share repurchases will be consistent with delivering on our financial plans and maintaining our CET1 capital ratio target of around 14% and assuming no material immediate changes to the current capital regime.

與過去一樣，我們的股票回購將與實現我們的財務計畫保持一致，並維持我們的 CET1 資本比率目標在 14% 左右，並假設當前資本製度沒有重大的即時變化。

Our ambition for capital returns to exceed pre-acquisition levels in 2026 remains unchanged.

我們希望 2026 年的資本回報率超過收購前的水平，這一目標保持不變。

Now following the publication of the Parliamentary Investigation Commission's report in December, we expect further developments in the ongoing review of the capital regime in Switzerland.

繼 12 月議會調查委員會的報告發布之後，我們預計瑞士資本製度的持續審查將會進一步進展。

Based on the latest public communication from the State Secretary for International Finance, the public consultation on the proposal is expected to begin in May.

根據國際金融國務秘書的最新公開消息，該提案的公眾諮詢預計將於 5 月開始。

Therefore, at this time, we are not in a position to offer any new information.

因此，目前我們無法提供任何新資訊。

As we have said in the past, we support the vast majority of proposals from the Swiss Federal Council on how to enhance the regulatory framework in Switzerland.

正如我們過去所說，我們支持瑞士聯邦委員會關於如何加強瑞士監管框架的絕大多數建議。

In our discussions with Swiss authorities, we continue to maintain our view that the Swiss capital regime is one of the strongest when consistently and coherently applied.

在與瑞士當局的討論中，我們依然堅持我們的觀點：只要始終如一地貫徹實施，瑞士資本製度是最強大的製度之一。

While it is also crystal clear that the overall quality of our capital is of much higher standard than Credit Suisse's, we accept that some adjustments and clarifications to the current regime may be necessary.

雖然我們的資本整體品質顯然遠高於瑞士信貸，但我們承認可能需要對當前製度進行一些調整和澄清。

However, a disproportionate outcome in terms of requirements at the parent bank level will drive our capital at the group level to overshoot the current requirements.

然而，母行層面的要求不成比例，將導致我們集團層面的資本超過目前的要求。

Therefore, we believe that any significant change is unjustified.

因此，我們認為任何重大改變都是不合理的。

Offsetting the consequences of higher requirements would make us uncompetitive domestically and abroad, hamper our ability to help clients grow, and importantly, make banking services more expensive for Swiss families and enterprises in the long run.

抵銷更高要求帶來的後果將使我​​們在國內外失去競爭力，妨礙我們幫助客戶成長的能力，重要的是，從長遠來看，會使瑞士家庭和企業的銀行服務變得更加昂貴。

It will also damage the nation's standing as an attractive global financial center and ultimately hurt our position as the third largest private employer in Switzerland.

這也將損害瑞士作為一個具有吸引力的全球金融中心的地位，並最終損害我們作為瑞士第三大私人雇主的地位。

Of course, this would have an impact on our returns on capital.

當然，這會對我們的資本回報產生影響。

But even more importantly, it would impede our ability to compete for capital in the global marketplace, particularly in a moment of financial stress.

但更重要的是，它會阻礙我們在全球市場上競爭資本的能力，特別是在金融壓力時刻。

As a reminder, our current ambitions are based on a 14% CET1 capital ratio.

提醒一下，我們目前的目標是基於 14% 的 CET1 資本比率。

I've been reading some recent reports, so let me be very clear.

我一直在閱讀一些最近的報告，所以讓我說清楚。

There are no easy fixes in terms of repatriation of capital from foreign subsidiaries or balance sheet optimization that are not already included in our plans.

在從海外子公司匯回資本或優化資產負債表方面，沒有簡單的解決辦法，這些解決方案尚未納入我們的計劃中。

Therefore, while I'm extremely confident in our capital generation capacity under any outcome, our shareholders' return and return on capital would be affected.

因此，儘管無論結果如何，我對我們的資本創造能力都非常有信心，但我們的股東回報和資本回報率都會受到影響。

Todd will provide more detail later.

托德稍後將提供更多細節。

We want to continue to be a source of strength for our clients, employees, shareholders and Switzerland.

我們希望繼續成為我們的客戶、員工、股東和瑞士的力量來源。

For that reason, it is very important that a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis on the consequences of any material changes of capital requirement is carried out.

因此，對資本要求的任何重大變化的後果進行全面的成本效益分析非常重要。

We remain hopeful that any potential changes will be proportionate, targeted and internationally aligned and coherent with the strategic objectives set out by the Swiss Federal Council.

我們仍然希望，任何潛在的變化都將是適度的、有針對性的、符合國際要求的，並與瑞士聯邦委員會制定的戰略目標保持一致。

As I mentioned before, we have substantially derisked the integration across many dimensions.

正如我之前提到的，我們已經在多個維度上大幅降低了整合的風險。

This is reflected in our return profile, which has significantly improved compared to a year ago.

這反映在我們的回報狀況上，與一年前相比已有顯著改善。

Our goal is to continue to rebuild profitability in 2025, as we further progress our integration plan and capture the benefits of our enhanced scale and capabilities across our businesses.

我們的目標是，隨著我們進一步推動整合計劃並充分利用我們各項業務規模和能力增強帶來的優勢，在 2025 年繼續重建盈利能力。

We remain well positioned to deliver on our 15% return on CET1 capital target by the end of 2026.

我們仍有望在 2026 年底前達到 15% 的 CET1 資本報酬率目標。

We will then look to achieve UBS's pre-acquisition levels of profitability and deliver on our 2028 ambitions.

然後，我們將努力實現瑞銀收購前的獲利水平，並實現我們的 2028 年目標。

We have achieved so much over the last two years, and I'm proud of the immense effort of all of my colleagues.

我們在過去兩年裡取得了巨大的成就，我為所有同事的巨大努力感到自豪。

But there is no room for complacency, and we remain focused on serving our clients, delivering on the next phase of the integration and fulfilling our growth initiatives as we position UBS for a successful future.

但我們不會自滿，我們將繼續專注於服務客戶、實現下一階段的整合以及履行我們的成長計劃，為瑞銀的成功未來奠定基礎。

With that, I hand back to Todd for more details on our plans.

說完這些，我將把計劃的更多細節交還給托德。

Thanks again, Sergio.

再次感謝你，塞爾吉奧。

I'll now offer a more detailed perspective on our financial outlook for 2025 and the trajectory towards our exit 2026 targets and ambitions starting on slide 21.

現在，我將從第 21 張投影片開始，更詳細地介紹我們 2025 年的財務前景以及實現 2026 年目標和抱負的軌跡。

With each of our core businesses well positioned to drive sustainable growth, in 2025, we expect to generate an underlying return on CET1 capital of around 10% versus 8.7% in 2024.

我們的每項核心業務都能夠很好地推動永續成長，我們預計 2025 年的 CET1 資本基礎回報率將達到 10% 左右，而 2024 年為 8.7%。

This year-on-year increase reflects our expectation that non-core and legacy will weigh on our financial performance more significantly than last year.

這一同比增長反映了我們的預期，即非核心和遺留問題將比去年對我們的財務表現產生更大的影響。

Importantly, this also means that our core businesses are expected to be the main drivers of year-on-year growth in returns despite continuing to absorb together with NCL the costs associated with restructuring and integrating the businesses, legal entities, infrastructure and teams inherited with the acquisition.

重要的是，這也意味著，儘管我們將繼續與 NCL 共同承擔重組和整合收購後繼承的業務、法人實體、基礎設施和團隊相關的成本，但我們的核心業務仍有望成為回報同比增長的主要驅動力。

For full year 2025, we expect an effective tax rate of around 20% as we aim to implement tax planning later in the year, mainly related to the combination of legal entities in the US.

對於 2025 年全年，我們預計有效稅率約為 20%，因為我們計劃在今年稍後實施稅務規劃，主要與美國法人實體的合併有關。

The acceleration we expect in 2026, when our in-year return on CET1 should be low teens and our exit rate around 15%, will be driven predominantly by the benefits from more than three years of extensive integration, restructuring and transformation effort.

我們預計，2026 年我們的 CET1 年回報率將達到 10% 以下，退出率將達到 15% 左右，而這主要將得益於三年多來廣泛的整合、重組和轉型努力所帶來的收益。

As I've highlighted in the past, we continue to expect more significant cost reductions across the core businesses as we retire legacy infrastructure and create further staff capacity.

正如我過去所強調的那樣，隨著我們淘汰舊式基礎設施並進一步提高員工能力，我們仍預計核心業務的成本將進一步大幅降低。

Revenue should also receive an uplift as we complete the integration and play more on our front foot with no distractions, generating alpha across our core franchises.

隨著我們完成整合並在沒有乾擾的情況下更積極地開展工作，為我們的核心特許經營權帶來阿爾法效應，收入也應該會得到提升。

Moreover, most of the headwinds to returns we see in 2025 are expected to dissipate by the end of 2026.

此外，我們在 2025 年看到的大部分回報阻力預計到 2026 年底將消散。

These include NII and credit loss expenses in Switzerland with the latter starting next year expected to reflect the substantial conversion towards P&C's historical average cost of risk as a result of increased allowances and legacy Credit Suisse loan maturities.

其中包括瑞士的國家資訊基礎設施投資和信貸損失費用，後者預計將從明年開始反映出由於準備金增加和瑞信遺留貸款到期而導致的向財產和意外險歷史平均風險成本的大幅轉換。

Additionally, as we exit 2026, we expect to see better profitability in our US wealth business and further reductions to our non-core and legacy portfolio, decreasing its drag on resources and profits.

此外，隨著 2026 年的到來，我們預計美國財富業務的獲利能力將提高，非核心和遺留投資組合將進一步減少，從而減少其對資源和利潤的拖累。

As I've mentioned before, the plans underpinning our ambitions are largely determined by factors within our control.

正如我之前提到的，我們雄心壯志背後的計劃很大程度上取決於我們能夠控制的因素。

While we expect to continue to invest for growth, we retain the necessary optionality and operating flexibility to support our profitability and returns ambitions regardless of market conditions.

雖然我們預計將繼續投資以實現成長，但我們保留必要的可選性和營運靈活性，以支持我們的獲利能力和回報目標，無論市場狀況如何。

Turning to costs on slide 22.

討論第 22 張投影片上的成本。

As of year-end, we delivered $7.5 billion of cumulative gross run rate cost saves, of which $3.4 billion in 2024, putting us well on track towards achieving our goal of around $13 billion by the end of 2026.

截至年底，我們累計節省了 75 億美元的總營運成本，其中 2024 年節省了 34 億美元，這讓我們有望實現 2026 年底約 130 億美元的目標。

Of the cumulative gross saves achieved to date, $4 billion contributed to net cost reductions with much of this progress driven by NCL.

在迄今為止實現的累計總節省中，有 40 億美元用於降低淨成本，其中大部分進展由 NCL 推動。

Importantly, while the overall cost base decreased by 10% from its 2022 baseline, if we exclude litigation and variable compensation linked to revenues, we delivered a 17% net reduction in underlying expenses on this look-through basis.

重要的是，雖然整體成本基礎較 2022 年基線下降了 10%，但如果我們排除與收入相關的訴訟和可變薪酬，我們在這一透視基礎上實現了基礎費用淨減少 17%。

Looking out over the next two years, we expect around $5.5 billion of additional gross cost saves across technology, third-party spend, real estate and from unlocking additional staff capacity.

展望未來兩年，我們預計在技術、第三方支出、房地產以及釋放額外員工能力方面將額外節省約 55 億美元的總成本。

As we've highlighted previously, while we remain continuously focused on driving cost savings by reducing duplication and streamlining wherever possible, we do not expect our sequential cost reduction to be linear.

正如我們之前強調的那樣，雖然我們始終致力於透過盡可能減少重複和精簡來節約成本，但我們並不期望連續的成本降低是線性的。

The impact on our cost base varies each quarter depending on the timing of large-scale integration initiatives that drive efficiencies across infrastructure, real estate and workforce optimization.

我們成本基礎的影響每個季度都有所不同，具體取決於推動基礎設施、房地產和勞動力優化效率的大規模整合計劃的時間。

Over the next two years, the most meaningful driver of cost reductions will be the decommissioning of legacy infrastructure with the most prominent example, the retirement of the Swiss platform, which will only happen after the client account migration is finalized next year.

未來兩年內，降低成本最有意義的驅動力將是舊有基礎設施的退役，最突出的例子就是瑞士平台的退役，而這只有在明年客戶帳戶遷移完成後才會發生。

At that point, we'll decommission the associated hardware, data centers and software applications, including systems in the middle and back office that are linked to client-facing platforms.

屆時，我們將停止使用相關的硬體、資料中心和軟體應用程序，包括與面向客戶的平台連接的中台和後台系統。

The continued rundown of NCL and further rationalization of our real estate footprint and legal entity structure will also support our realizing cost synergies over the next two years, as we work towards our exit 2026 cost-income ratio target of less than 70%.

NCL 的持續縮減以及我們房地產足跡和法人實體結構的進一步合理化，也將支持我們在未來兩年內實現成本協同效應，我們正努力實現 2026 年退出時成本收入比低於 70% 的目標。

Moreover, with almost 60% of our gross cost save ambition achieved through the end of 2024, we now have a clearer line of sight as to the cost to achieve the successful completion of our integration plans.

此外，到 2024 年底，我們的總成本節約目標已達到近 60%，現在我們對成功完成整合計畫的成本有了更清晰的認識。

We now expect cumulative integration-related expenses to total around $14 billion.

我們現在預計累計整合相關費用總計約 140 億美元。

The $1 billion in incremental spend largely compensates for lower-than-anticipated staff attrition levels and accelerated real estate exits.

10億美元的增量支出在很大程度上彌補了低於預期的員工流失率和加速的房地產退出。

It also accounts for investments in new opportunities to unlock long-term value creation in connection with select Credit Suisse businesses.

它還考慮了與精選瑞信業務相關的新機會的投資，以釋放長期價值創造。

Turning to our business divisions and starting with Global Wealth Management on slide 23.

轉向我們的業務部門，從第 23 張投影片上的全球財富管理開始。

With over $4 trillion in invested assets, our scale, global connectivity, innovation and CIO-led advice and solutions uniquely position us to capture wallet and seize growth opportunities across our global footprint.

我們的投資資產超過 4 兆美元，我們的規模、全球連結性、創新以及由 CIO 主導的建議和解決方案使我們能夠在全球業務中吸引資金並抓住成長機會。

GWM Americas, which comprises our US, Canada and Latin America wealth businesses is a leading wealth management provider, with $2.1 trillion of assets served by nearly 6,000 financial advisers.

GWM Americas 是一家領先的財富管理提供商，其業務涵蓋美國、加拿大和拉丁美洲，其近 6,000 名財務顧問為 2.1 兆美元的資產提供服務。

In Switzerland and EMEA, we are the number one player, combining our global offering with regional adaptations and client proximity.

在瑞士和歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們是頭號參與者，將我們的全球產品與區域適應性和客戶親密度相結合。

And in APAC, with a broad and well-diversified footprint, we're the number one wealth manager, twice as large as our next closest competitor.

在亞太地區，憑藉著廣泛而多元化的業務範圍，我們是排名第一的財富管理公司，規模是我們最接近的競爭對手的兩倍。

Moving to slide 24.

移至投影片 24。

In 2024, GWM recorded an underlying pre-tax profit of almost $5 billion and an underlying cost-to-income ratio of 80%, while restoring its capital efficiency to levels similar to those before the acquisition.

2024年，長城汽車的基本稅前利潤接近50億美元，基本成本收入比達到80%，資本效率恢復到收購前的水準。

In 2025, returns are expected to grow year over year as we continue to capitalize on our enduring competitive advantages, underpinned by secular tailwinds.

2025 年，隨著我們繼續利用持久的競爭優勢並藉助長期的順風優勢，預計回報將逐年增長。

The industry trends we see accelerating across our global family, ultra and high net worth client segments, including legacy and longevity-based planning needs, geographic wealth migration and multidisciplinary client solutions play right to our strengths.

我們看到，全球家庭、超高淨值和高淨值客戶群的行業趨勢正在加速發展，包括基於遺產和長壽的規劃需求、地理財富遷移和多學科客戶解決方案，這些都充分發揮了我們的優勢。

We expect these dynamics to drive revenue growth in 2025.

我們預計這些動態將推動 2025 年的營收成長。

Moreover, our teams of advisers, investment managers and solution specialists are leveraging our client account migration efforts as a unique opportunity to review and rebalance client portfolios while supporting our clients during their transition to the UBS platform.

此外，我們的顧問、投資經理和解決方案專家團隊正在利用我們的客戶帳戶遷移工作作為獨特的機會來審查和重新平衡客戶投資組合，同時為我們的客戶過渡到瑞銀平台提供支援。

This work supports our outlook of continued increasing mandate penetration and gross margin stability.

這項工作支持了我們繼續提高授權滲透率和毛利率穩定性的前景。

Also, GWM's costs are expected to decrease over the course of 2025, principally as we decommission platforms following the first wave of client account migration work completed last year.

此外，GWM 的成本預計將在 2025 年下降，主要是因為我們在去年完成第一波客戶帳戶遷移工作後將停用一些平台。

As in 2024, GWM's net new asset ambition will continue to reflect the actions and other dynamics I've highlighted that support higher pre-tax margins and returns on attributed equity, but at times, come at the expense of flows.

就像 2024 年一樣，長城汽車的淨新資產目標將繼續反映我所強調的支持更高稅前利潤率和歸屬股權回報率的行動和其他動態，但有時會以犧牲流量為代價。

While in Switzerland, EMEA and APAC, the impact on flows is expected to soften over the course of the year, in the US, our efforts to align financial adviser incentives with our strategic priorities may result in a short-term increase in FA attrition, creating an additional headwind for net new assets in the coming months.

在瑞士、歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區，預計對資金流動的影響將在年內減弱，但在美國，我們為使財務顧問的激勵措施與我們的戰略重點保持一致而做出的努力可能會導致財務顧問流失率在短期內增加，從而對未來幾個月的淨新增資產造成額外的阻力。

We, therefore, maintain our net new asset ambition of around $100 billion for 2025.

因此，我們維持 2025 年約 1,000 億美元的淨新增資產目標。

Yet, in 2026, with the integration behind us and flow headwinds fully addressed, we expect GWM net new assets to begin to accelerate towards our ambition of $200 billion per annum and over $5 trillion in invested assets by 2028.

然而，到 2026 年，隨著整合的完成和流動性阻力的完全解決，我們預計長城汽車的淨新增資產將開始加速增長，朝著我們的目標邁進，即到 2028 年，每年實現 2000 億美元淨新增資產，投資資產超過 5 兆美元。

Moreover, the improvement in ECM activity we're starting to observe across the globe should ultimately play to our asset gathering strengths.

此外，我們開始觀察到全球 ECM 活動的改善最終應該會發揮我們的資產聚集優勢。

This coincides with increasing levels of monetization among wealth management clients, which is expected to translate into greater opportunities to intensify engagement, capture share of wallet and deliver advice and solutions.

這與財富管理客戶的貨幣化水平不斷提高相吻合，預計這將轉化為更大的機會來加強參與、佔據錢包份額並提供建議和解決方案。

Moving to the Americas on slide 25.

移至第 25 張投影片上的美洲。

Our Americas Wealth business, our foothold into the world's largest wealth pool, is a key pillar of our long-term growth strategy and value proposition to clients.

我們的美洲財富業務是我們進入全球最大財富池的立足點，也是我們長期成長策略和顧客價值主張的重要支柱。

In addition to accounting for around 50% of our total asset base, it also contributes a similar proportion to GWM's global revenues.

它除了占我們總資產的50%左右外，還為長城汽車的全球收入貢獻了相似比例。

Given the strategic importance of the Americas business, we recognize that improving its financial performance is both a necessity and a priority.

鑑於美洲業務的戰略重要性，我們認識到改善其財務表現是必要的，也是優先事項。

Since 2019, we've grown the region's invested assets and revenues at a CAGR of 8% and 4%, respectively, and delivered profit margins averaging mid-teens.

自 2019 年以來，我們在該地區的投資資產和收入分別以 8% 和 4% 的複合年增長率增長，利潤率平均達到 15% 左右。

After reaching a record pre-tax margin of 19% in 2021, we've seen profitability retreat to its current level of around 10%.

在 2021 年達到創紀錄的 19% 稅前利潤率後，我們看到獲利能力回落至目前 10% 左右的水平。

While our revenues have grown, expenses have grown faster.

雖然我們的收入成長了，但支出成長得更快。

With the business model mostly geared towards the most financially sophisticated ultra and family clients, the post-pandemic market dynamics of rising equity prices and soaring interest rates caused a shift in our revenue mix, that drove up variable compensation levels and compressed profit margins.

由於該業務模式主要面向財務最精明的超級客戶和家庭客戶，疫情過後，股價上漲和利率飆升的市場動態導致我們的收入結構發生變化，從而推高了浮動薪酬水平並壓縮了利潤率。

At the same time, technology costs were increasing as part of our efforts to improve and modernize the digital experience for our clients and advisers, but also to address past investments in large programs where delivery had been suboptimal.

同時，為了努力改善和現代化客戶和顧問的數位體驗，以及解決過去對交付不理想的大型專案的投資，技術成本也在增加。

On top of this, the cost of recruiting advisers, back office spend and litigation charges all grew.

除此之外，招聘顧問的成本、後台支出和訴訟費用都在增加。

To address these challenges, we're changing how we operate to improve profitability and position the business for more efficient and sustainable growth.

為了應對這些挑戰，我們正在改變營運方式，以提高獲利能力並使業務實現更有效率、更永續的成長。

Since the end of last year, we've already taken actions to streamline our organizational structure, improve cost discipline and align the incentives of our financial advisers to our strategic objectives.

自去年年底以來，我們已經採取行動精簡組織架構，加強成本紀律，並使財務顧問的激勵措施與我們的策略目標保持一致。

As these changes take hold, and given our intention to fund incremental strategic investments, we expect our pre-tax margin in 2025 to remain at broadly current levels.

隨著這些變化的實施，並考慮到我們資助增量策略投資的意圖，我們預計 2025 年的稅前利潤率將保持在大致相同的水平。

We then expect to make more material progress and steadily improve towards mid-teens by 2027.

我們預計到 2027 年將取得更多實質進展，並穩步提升至十幾歲的水平。

At that point, the business will be better positioned to further expand its profitability and help the global wealth franchise deliver beyond its end 2026 target of a greater than 30% underlying pre-tax margin.

屆時，該業務將處於更有利的位置，進一步擴大盈利能力，並幫助全球財富特許經營業務實現其 2026 年底超過 30% 的稅前利潤率的目標。

Let me highlight the key changes we're implementing on slide 26.

讓我在第 26 張投影片上重點介紹我們正在實施的關鍵變更。

First, on service models, our strong track record in serving sophisticated clients demonstrates the effectiveness of close collaboration across the organization.

首先，在服務模式上，我們在服務高端客戶方面的良好記錄證明了整個組織密切合作的有效性。

This is clearly reflected in the 21% year-over-year increase in Americas' transactional revenues after we introduced joint coverage of GWM clients with IB markets specialists.

在我們推出 GWM 客戶與 IB 市場專家的聯合覆蓋範圍之後，美洲交易收入同比增長了 21%，這明顯反映了這一點。

Moreover, our experience tells us that the use of one or more of our specialized capabilities has a meaningful multiplier effect on revenue generation.

此外，我們的經驗告訴我們，使用我們的一項或多項專業能力對於創造收入具有有意義的乘數效應。

We're building a regionally aligned multidisciplinary team approach and extending this offering to a broader population of our existing ultra-high net worth clients to accelerate revenue growth.

我們正在建立一個區域一致的多學科團隊方法，並將此項服務擴展到更廣泛的現有超高淨值客戶群體，以加速收入成長。

We're rolling out this set up immediately and scaling it over the course of 2025.

我們將立即推出這項設置，並在 2025 年期間擴大規模。

Second, on client mix.

第二，關於客戶結構。

Going forward, we intend to better balance our client base across wealth bands by increasing investment and penetration in the high net worth and core affluent segments to drive scale and profitability.

展望未來，我們打算透過增加對高淨值和核心富裕階層的投資和滲透來更好地平衡各個財富階層的客戶群，以推動規模和獲利能力。

To that end, we're streamlining and automating product and content distribution and developing more tailored segment-specific solutions, leveraging our CIO and national sales capabilities.

為此，我們正在簡化和自動化產品和內容分發，並開發更客製化的特定細分市場解決方案，利用我們的 CIO 和全國銷售能力。

In addition, we're investing in our digitally-led advice model in the wealth advice center to make it a more meaningful contributor to organic growth and to lower our cost to serve.

此外，我們正在投資財富諮詢中心的數位化諮詢模式，使其成為有機成長的更有意義的貢獻者，並降低我們的服務成本。

By more than doubling our advice center staff, we aim to create further capacity to acquire and serve more clients and increase wallet with existing ones.

透過將諮詢中心的員工人數增加一倍以上，我們旨在進一步提高吸引和服務更多客戶的能力，並增加現有客戶的收入。

In addition, the wealth advice center becomes an effective pipeline for future FAs and a more cost-efficient way to scale our business.

此外，財富諮詢中心將成為未來財務顧問的有效管道，也是擴大我們業務的更具成本效益的方式。

Another key aspect of our rebalancing efforts relates to enhancing our feeder channels.

我們重新平衡努力的另一個關鍵方面是加強我們的支線管道。

We intend to expand sources of asset acquisition by revising our referral and incentive structures while centralizing and investing in digital marketing.

我們打算透過修改我們的推薦和激勵結構，同時集中和投資數位行銷來擴大資產獲取來源。

We're also developing a comprehensive integrated workplace wealth solution across equity and retirement plans and financial planning and wellness.

我們也正在開發涵蓋股權和退休計畫以及財務規劃和健康的全面綜合工作場所財富解決方案。

We believe a signature workplace wealth offering with state-of-the-art digital capabilities will serve as a highly effective client lead generator, aligning with our priority to improve penetration across wealth bands.

我們相信，具有最先進數位化功能的標誌性職場財富產品將成為高效的客戶線索產生器，這與我們提高跨財富階層滲透率的優先事項相一致。

Third, on the capability side, we're taking critical steps to build out a full suite of banking capabilities to enhance our ability to serve our clients and their business interests.

第三，在能力方面，我們正在採取關鍵步驟，建立全套銀行能力，以增強我們服務客戶及其商業利益的能力。

This will help us expand our access to deposits, better balance our revenue mix, deepen client relationships, and importantly, foster enduring engagement and connectivity between our clients and UBS.

這將有助於我們擴大存款管道，更好地平衡我們的收入結構，加深客戶關係，更重要的是，促進客戶與瑞銀之間持久的合作和聯繫。

Expanding and enhancing our banking product offering requires that we obtain a national charter, a multiyear process that is presently in full swing.

擴大和增強我們的銀行產品供應需要我們獲得國家特許，這是一個多年的過程，目前正在如火如荼地進行中。

Now moving to slide 27.

現在轉到第 27 張投影片。

Underpinning these initiatives and their success is a necessary operational realignment of the structure, performance culture and tech strategy in our Americas Wealth franchise.

這些舉措及其成功的基礎是對我們的美洲財富特許經營的結構、績效文化和技術策略進行必要的營運調整。

So fourth, effective January 1, we simplified the organizational structure to drive greater collaboration, reduce duplication and create synergies, thereby contributing to improved productivity and efficiency.

第四，從 1 月 1 日起，我們簡化了組織結構，以促進更大程度的協作、減少重複並產生協同效應，有助於提高生產力和效率。

This includes regionally aligning our client-facing teams, reducing management layers and fostering clear accountability and faster decision-making.

這包括在區域上調整我們面向客戶的團隊，減少管理層級，並促進明確的責任制和更快的決策。

Recently, we also announced changes to our financial adviser compensation model.

最近，我們也宣布了財務顧問薪酬模式的改變。

We aim to better align FA incentives with the strategic goals of the firm by rewarding net new money, new client acquisition and the broadening of existing client relationships with a specific incentive for NII growth.

我們的目標是透過對淨新資金、新客戶獲取和擴大現有客戶關係提供特定的 NII 成長激勵措施，使 FA 激勵措施與公司的策略目標更好地結合。

While we design these changes to incentivize greater production and ultimately higher compensation levels for advisers in full sync with our strategy, we may see a short-term rise in FA attrition, which is reflected in our pre-tax margin expectation for 2025.

雖然我們設計這些變化是為了激勵更大的生產力，並最終為與我們的策略完全同步的顧問提高薪酬水平，但我們可能會看到 FA 流失率短期內上升，這反映在我們對 2025 年的稅前利潤預期中。

And finally, we're implementing a strategic reset in terms of how we invest and modernize our technology infrastructure.

最後，我們正在對如何投資和現代化我們的技術基礎設施進行策略性調整。

We're now delivering new and advanced digital capabilities in a dynamic, modular fashion that make it easier for our clients and advisers to do business with and on behalf of UBS.

我們現在以動態、模組化的方式提供新的和先進的數位功能，使我們的客戶和顧問更容易與瑞銀開展業務並代表瑞銀開展業務。

This approach will enable more efficient execution of our technology roadmap with improved payback, which, together with an expanded tech budget, will create additional capacity to fund innovative solutions to improve adviser productivity and drive growth.

這種方法將使我們的技術路線圖得到更有效的執行，並提高回報，再加上擴大的技術預算，將創造額外的能力來資助創新解決方案，以提高顧問的工作效率並推動成長。

We believe these actions, which are being decisively executed by our new leadership team, will drive margins to a mid-teens level by 2027 while positioning the Americas Wealth business for long-term growth.

我們相信，這些由我們新領導團隊果斷執行的舉措將在 2027 年將利潤率推高至十五六成的水平，同時為美洲財富業務的長期增長做好準備。

A final word on providing more visibility to track our performance going forward.

最後要說的是，提供更多的可視性來追蹤我們未來的表現。

While the ultimate measure of our progress in the Americas is improvement in our regional pre-tax margin, beginning in 1Q, we will enhance our regional disclosure by breaking out revenue across the various categories and including prior period comparatives.

雖然我們在美洲取得的最終進展衡量標準是區域稅前利潤率的提高，但從第一季開始，我們將透過列出各個類別的收入並納入前期比較數據，來加強區域揭露。

Turning to slide 26 and on to our Swiss business.

翻到第 26 張投影片，繼續討論我們的瑞士業務。

As the leading bank for corporate and private clients in the country, our Swiss Universal Bank with P&C at its core showcases the power of close collaboration, creating value for clients.

作為國內領先的企業和私人客戶銀行，以財產險和意外險為核心的瑞士全能銀行展現了密切合作的力量，為客戶創造了價值。

Even while absorbing NII and CLE headwinds, optimizing its balance sheet and preparing for the client account migration, P&C alone contributed over one-third of the group's 2024 underlying pre-tax profits.

即使在吸收 NII 和 CLE 阻力、優化資產負債表和為客戶帳戶遷移做準備的同時，僅 P&C 一項就為該集團 2024 年稅前利潤貢獻了三分之一以上。

As we expect, the headwinds I highlighted earlier to weigh on P&C's returns in 2025, we aim to partially mitigate the effects of these challenges by growing non-NII revenues, while also striving to minimize client and asset outflows during the migration process.

正如我們預期的那樣，我之前強調的不利因素將影響 2025 年的 P&C 回報，我們旨在透過增加非 NII 收入來部分減輕這些挑戰的影響，同時努力在遷移過程中最大限度地減少客戶和資產流出。

Moreover, the completion of the client account migration work will allow us to realize cost synergies and further invest in digital capabilities, improving the client experience and efficiency of our platform.

此外，客戶帳戶遷移工作的完成將使我們實現成本協同效應並進一步投資於數位化能力，從而提高客戶體驗和我們平台的效率。

By 2026, we intend to fully capitalize on growth opportunities with no distractions.

到 2026 年，我們打算充分利用成長機遇，不受干擾。

Our Swiss business will be uniquely positioned to offer exceptional value throughout the client life cycle by delivering a comprehensive suite of services spanning wealth management, asset management and investment banking.

我們的瑞士業務將透過提供涵蓋財富管理、資產管理和投資銀行的全面服務，在整個客戶生命週期中提供卓越的價值。

Our primary focus will be on reinforcing our standing as the go-to bank for large corporates, entrepreneurs and emerging affluent clients with leading financing, asset servicing and wealth advice capabilities.

我們的首要重點是鞏固我們作為大型企業、企業家和新興富裕客戶首選銀行的地位，擁有領先的融資、資產服務和財富諮詢能力。

This positioning, coupled with a more streamlined cost base, give us confidence in our ability to grow the P&C business at least as fast as Swiss GDP while delivering a cost-to-income ratio of less than 50% and a pre-tax return on equity of near 20% by the end of 2026.

這一定位，加上更精簡的成本基礎，使我們有信心能夠使財產和意外事故保險業務的增長速度至少與瑞士 GDP 的增長速度相當，同時到 2026 年底實現成本收入比低於 50% 且稅前股本回報率接近 20%。

I now turn to Asset Management on slide 29.

現在我轉到第 29 張投影片上的「資產管理」。

Our strategic positioning expanded product offering and enhanced regional scale in select markets are already supporting healthy momentum in asset management.

我們的策略定位擴大了產品供應，並在特定市場增強了區域規模，這已經為資產管理帶來了健康的動力。

Despite the impact of the integration, we saw $45 billion in net new money enter our platform in 2024, while we remain focused on continuing to capture opportunities where we have a differentiated and scalable offering.

儘管受到整合的影響，我們仍看到 2024 年有 450 億美元的淨新資金進入我們的平台，同時我們仍然專注於繼續抓住提供差異化和可擴展產品的機會。

This includes our recently launched Unified Global Alternatives unit, which with nearly $300 billion in invested assets, makes us a leading global player and top five limited partner.

其中包括我們最近推出的統一全球替代品部門，該部門擁有近 3000 億美元的投資資產，使我們成為全球領先的參與者和前五名有限合夥人。

By combining our leading manager selection franchises across GWM and Asset Management, we can now offer our wealth management and institutional clients access to exclusive investment opportunities while providing GPs with a single point of access to the full distribution power of UBS.

透過整合我們在 GWM 和資產管理領域的領先經理人精選特許經營權，我們現在可以為我們的財富管理和機構客戶提供獨家投資機會，同時為 GP 提供獲取瑞銀全部分銷權力的單一訪問點。

Overall, with a focus on alternatives, improved traditional investment performance and customized client solutions at scale, we continue to expect positive net new money growth in 2025 while completing our fund shelf transition and platform consolidation.

整體而言，透過專注於替代品、改善傳統投資績效和大規模客製化客戶解決方案，我們將繼續預計 2025 年淨新資金將實現正成長，同時完成基金架轉型和平台整合。

At the same time, we're investing in our existing platform to build out key capabilities, create cost efficiencies and support our AI strategy.

同時，我們正在投資現有平台，以建立關鍵功能、提高成本效率並支援我們的人工智慧策略。

We'll also remain focused on realizing cost synergies from the integration and driving structural operational efficiencies from our strategic cost program.

我們也將繼續專注於透過整合實現成本協同效應，並透過策略成本計畫提高結構性營運效率。

Together with further exits of non-strategic businesses, these efforts are expected to improve our profit margin and asset management to above 30% by the end of 2026.

加上進一步退出非策略性業務，這些努力預計將使我們的利潤率和資產管理到 2026 年底提高到 30% 以上。

Moving to the Investment Bank on slide 30.

前往第 30 頁的投資銀行。

Over the last 12 months, we have generated more than $0.5 billion of incremental underlying revenue in Global Banking and delivered record performance in global markets, including reaching record market share and cash equities.

在過去的 12 個月中，我們在全球銀行業務中創造了超過 5 億美元的增量基礎收入，並在全球市場上取得了創紀錄的業績，包括達到創紀錄的市場份額和現金股票。

Looking forward, with favorable market conditions, the completion of the Credit Suisse integration and earlier investments starting to pay off, we aim to enhance our IB's returns in 2025.

展望未來，隨著市場條件有利、瑞信整合的完成以及早期投資開始產生回報，我們的目標是在 2025 年提高我們 IB 的回報。

In banking, we remain encouraged by our pipeline in M&A and LCM and our improved position in the Americas, which together are expected to support year-on-year revenue growth in 2025.

在銀行業務方面，我們在併購和 LCM 方面的準備工作以及在美洲地區地位的提升仍然令我們感到鼓舞，預計這些因素將共同支持 2025 年收入的同比增長。

I should note that while there continues to be broad-based positive sentiment around the market backdrop, global fee pools in January were off by more than 20% year on year.

我應該指出，儘管市場背景繼續普遍保持積極情緒，但 1 月份全球費用池比去年同期下降了 20% 以上。

Additionally, despite greater market activity in equity capital markets, productivity improvement visible in our own ECM business is more likely to yield meaningful revenue growth later in 2025 and into 2026, considering the timeline of our pipeline build.

此外，儘管股權資本市場的市場活動增加，但考慮到我們產品線建設的時間表，我們自己的 ECM 業務中明顯的生產力提高更有可能在 2025 年下半年和 2026 年帶來有意義的收入成長。

This said, with market share in the Americas over two times pre-acquisition levels, we remain confident in our ability to double banking revenues in 2026 compared to our 2022 baseline.

儘管如此，由於我們在美洲的市佔率已超過收購前的兩倍，我們仍然有信心在 2026 年實現銀行收入較 2022 年基準翻倍。

It's also worth highlighting that our Investment Bank will be the only major player in the US and Europe implementing final Basel III regulations, and in particular, FRTB.

另外值得強調的是，我們的投資銀行將成為美國和歐洲唯一實施巴塞爾協議 III 最終法規（尤其是 FRTB）的主要參與者。

Upholding our capital-light business model, despite this additional cost of capital, the IB remains committed to achieve its pre-tax return on equity ambition of 15% through the cycle while continuing to consume no more than 25% of the group's risk-weighted assets.

儘管有額外的資本成本，但該銀行仍堅持輕資本業務模式，致力於在整個週期內實現 15% 的稅前股本回報率目標，同時繼續消耗不超過集團風險加權資產的 25%。

Turning to non-core and legacy on slide 31.

在第 31 張投影片上討論非核心和遺留問題。

The performance delivered by the non-core and legacy team in 2024 contributed to a significant acceleration in our derisking, cost saving and capital release plans.

非核心和遺留團隊在 2024 年的出色表現有助於顯著加速我們的風險降低、成本節約和資本釋放計劃。

In particular, what we achieved during the last six quarters has fundamentally altered NCL's balance sheet and risk position entering 2025 with RWA from its credit, securitized products, equities and macro books, reduced by over 70%.

特別是，我們在過去六個季度所取得的成就從根本上改變了 NCL 的資產負債表和風險狀況，進入 2025 年，其信貸、證券化產品、股票和宏觀帳簿的風險加權資產減少了 70% 以上。

In addition to now being much smaller and yielding less net carry, these books are broadly hedged against market moves, thereby effectively mitigating risks, but also limiting revenue upside.

除了現在規模更小、淨利得更少之外，這些帳簿還可以廣泛對沖市場波動，從而有效地降低風險，但也限制了收入的上漲。

Additionally, a significant portion of the funding costs associated with the overall portfolio relates to long-dated HoldCo and OpCo debt that Credit Suisse issued during its crisis.

此外，與整體投資組合相關的融資成本很大一部分與瑞士信貸在危機期間發行的長期 HoldCo 和 OpCo 債務有關。

These instruments are prohibitively expensive to redeem prior to maturity, making them a sticky component of NCL's costs, irrespective of funding needs.

這些工具在到期前贖回的成本過高，無論融資需求如何，這都使其成為 NCL 成本的一個黏性組成部分。

As a result, for full year 2025, we estimate NCL's topline at around negative $500 million, mainly from funding costs with revenues from remaining fair value positions and continued exits expected around zero.

因此，我們估計 2025 年全年 NCL 的營業利潤約為負 5 億美元，主要來自融資成本，而剩餘公允價值部位和持續退出的收入預計約為零。

Excluded from this estimate is a gain of around $100 million expected in the first quarter from closing the sale of Credit Suisse's US mortgage servicing company that we announced last year.

這項估計不包括我們去年宣布的瑞信美國抵押貸款服務公司出售交易預計在第一季帶來的約 1 億美元收益。

We also anticipate NCL's underlying operating expenses ex-litigation to continue to reduce over the course of 2025, averaging around $450 million per quarter.

我們也預計，NCL 的訴訟外基本營運費用將在 2025 年繼續減少，平均每季約為 4.5 億美元。

Accordingly, in 2025, NCL's underlying pre-tax loss, excluding litigation, is expected to be around $2.2 billion, albeit with sequential improvements as expenses and consumption-based funding costs decrease.

因此，到 2025 年，NCL 的基礎稅前虧損（不包括訴訟）預計約為 22 億美元，儘管隨著費用和基於消費的融資成本下降，情況將有所改善。

This compares to an underlying pre-tax loss in 2024 of around $800 million, inclusive of litigation releases.

相較之下，2024 年的潛在稅前虧損約為 8 億美元，其中包括訴訟費用。

2024's performance benefited from net carry income and are exiting positions at prices above book value, neither of which is expected to repeat at similar levels.

2024 年的表現受益於淨套利收入，並以高於帳面價值的價格退出頭寸，預計兩者都不會在類似的水平上重複。

Consequently, in 2025, NCL is expected to substantially weigh on returns year over year.

因此，預計到 2025 年，NCL 將對回報產生較上年顯著的影響。

Looking further out, we expect NCL to exit 2026 with less than 5% of group RWA consisting of less than $10 billion of market and credit risk.

放眼未來，我們預計 NCL 將於 2026 年退出集團，屆時其 RWA 佔比將不到 5%，且市場和信用風險將不足 100 億美元。

We also expect to exit 2026 with pre-tax loss of under $1 billion as the business continues its strong cost-reduction trajectory.

由於業務持續保持強勁的成本削減軌跡，我們也預計到 2026 年稅前虧損將低於 10 億美元。

This is anticipated to consist of annualized operating expenses of around $750 million and annualized net funding cost of around $200 million.

預計這將包括約 7.5 億美元的年度營運費用和約 2 億美元的年度淨融資成本。

We then intend to run down NCL's legacy operating expenses to a level below $250 million by the end of 2028 with funding costs tapering over an extended timeframe as legacy Credit Suisse funding matures.

然後，我們打算在 2028 年底之前將 NCL 的遺留營運費用削減至 2.5 億美元以下的水平，並且隨著瑞士信貸遺留資金的成熟，融資成本將在較長時間內逐漸減少。

By the end of 2028, we forecast around $100 million of legacy funding costs per annum, fully running down by 2033.

到 2028 年底，我們預測每年的遺留融資成本將達到約 1 億美元，到 2033 年將完全耗盡。

Our outlook for the runoff of NCL's operational risk, RWA, for now remains in line with the trajectory we modeled under our internal method and disclosed previously.

目前，我們對 NCL 操作風險 (RWA) 流失的展望與我們根據內部方法建模並先前揭露的軌跡一致。

This reflects the fact that unlike what is expected to eventually apply in the US, UK and across Europe, the 2025 Swiss implementation of the standardized approach imposes an internal loss multiplier well above 1, thereby resulting in significant RWA, primarily for losses and matters we inherited from Credit Suisse.

這反映了這樣一個事實：與預計最終在美國、英國和整個歐洲實施的方法不同，2025 年瑞士實施的標準化方法規定的內部損失乘數遠高於 1，從而導致了顯著的風險加權資產，主要用於我們從瑞信繼承的損失和事項。

Picking up on my earlier comments, slide 32 showcases our strong financial position at year-end 2024 and related regulatory measures.

接著我先前的評論，第 32 張投影片展示了我們在 2024 年底的強勁財務狀況和相關監管措施。

Our balance sheet for all seasons underpins our ability to consistently deliver for our clients and shareholders while we ourselves maintain resilience through disciplined risk management and strong capital and liquidity levels.

我們全天候的資產負債表支撐著我們持續為客戶和股東提供服務的能力，同時我們本身也透過嚴格的風險管理和強大的資本和流動性水準來保持彈性。

At the end of 2024, our group total loss-absorbing capacity stood at $185 billion, with a going concern capital ratio of 17.6%, and as mentioned, a CET1 capital ratio of 14.3%.

截至 2024 年底，我們集團的總損失吸收能力為 1,850 億美元，持續經營資本比率為 17.6%，如上所述，CET1 資本比率為 14.3%。

We closed 2024 with AT1 capital of 3.3% of RWA.

截至 2024 年，我們的 AT1 資本佔 RWA 的 3.3%。

During the year, we successfully issued $3.5 billion in AT1, as we built towards our ambition and regulatory allowance of 4.3% of RWA.

今年，我們成功發行了 35 億美元的 AT1，並逐步實現 4.3% RWA 的目標和監管限額。

Given our progress to date and based on our projected 2025 funding needs, we expect our AT1 capital to remain at current levels through 2025 with new issuance offsetting potential calls.

鑑於我們迄今為止的進展以及基於我們預測的 2025 年融資需求，我們預計我們的 AT1 資本將在 2025 年之前保持在當前水平，新發行的資本將抵消潛在的需求。

Gone concern capital at year-end was $98 billion.

年底的破產資本為 980 億美元。

As a reminder, while this is around $40 billion above the group regulatory minimum, our binding constraint is UBS AG's standalone requirement.

提醒一下，雖然這比集團監管最低限額高出約 400 億美元，但我們的約束條件是瑞銀集團的獨立要求。

Looking ahead, we're targeting to bring down group HoldCo to around $90 billion by the end of 2025, while still retaining resilient buffers over regulatory minimums.

展望未來，我們的目標是到 2025 年底將集團 HoldCo 降至 900 億美元左右，同時仍保留超過監管最低標準的彈性緩衝。

This target, which is expected to contribute substantial savings and funding costs, is based on the expectation that UBS AG stand-alone requirements will decrease as a result of further balance sheet reductions and the reorganization of remaining former Credit Suisse operating companies.

這一目標預計將帶來大幅的節餘和融資成本，其依據是，隨著資產負債表進一步縮減以及瑞信剩餘前營運公司的重組，瑞銀集團的獨立要求將下降。

UBS AG stand-alone CET1 capital ratio at year-end is estimated to be 13.5%.

瑞銀集團年末獨立CET1資本比率預計為13.5%。

For the foreseeable future, we expect UBS AG to operate with a stand-alone CET1 capital ratio in the range of 12.5% to 13%, around 2.5 points above the current regulatory minimum on a fully applied basis.

在可預見的未來，我們預計瑞銀集團的獨立 CET1 資本比率將在 12.5% 至 13% 之間，在全面應用的基礎上比當前監管最低標準高出約 2.5 個百分點。

This guidance factors in the effects of our ongoing integration efforts and also considers the prospect of settling Credit Suisse legacy litigation matters that could result in charges to the parent bank despite coverage at the group level from PPA reserves established on the acquisition date.

該指引考慮了我們正在進行的整合工作的影響，同時也考慮了解決瑞信遺留訴訟問題的前景，這些問題可能導致母銀行產生費用，儘管集團層面已從收購日建立的 PPA 儲備金中支付了費用。

This target capital level also accounts for planned dividends and capital from subsidiaries.

此目標資本水準也考慮了計畫股利和子公司的資本。

During the fourth quarter, $13 billion of capital was repatriated to the parent bank from its subsidiaries in the UK and the US.

第四季度，共有130億美元的資本從英國和美國的子公司匯回母行。

Of the total, $6 billion was paid up from UBS Americas Holding.

其中，瑞銀美洲控股公司支付了 60 億美元。

The UK subsidiary, Credit Suisse International, repatriated $7 billion with around $5 billion of additional distributions expected as we continue to unwind or transfer its positions, subject to customary regulatory approval.

其英國子公司瑞信國際已匯回 70 億美元，預計還將額外分配約 50 億美元，因為我們將繼續平倉或轉移其頭寸，但需獲得常規監管批准。

As Sergio mentioned, it's important to note that we planned for this distribution of capital from subsidiaries since the acquisition.

正如塞爾吉奧所提到的，值得注意的是，自收購以來，我們就計劃從子公司分配資本。

As such, it forms part of our capital return ambitions while maintaining our target capital ratios at both the group level and the parent bank.

因此，它構成了我們資本回報目標的一部分，同時保持了我們集團和母行層面的目標資本比率。

Therefore, broadly speaking, new capital requirements from too-big-to-fail imposed at the parent bank level would need to be funded by a higher retention of profits, consequently leading to an overshooting of capital at the group level and resulting in a lower overall return on CET1 capital, all other things being equal.

因此，從廣義上講，在其他條件相同的情況下，母銀行層面因「大而不能倒」而產生的新資本要求將需要透過更高的利潤留存來支付，從而導致集團層面的資本超調，並導致 CET1 資本的整體回報率降低。

On to liquidity and funding.

關於流動性和融資。

As we aim to balance efficiency with resiliency and safety, over the past 18 months, we've been maintaining our LCR above pre-acquisition levels.

由於我們的目標是在效率、彈性和安全性之間取得平衡，在過去的 18 個月中，我們一直將 LCR 保持在收購前的水平之上。

This approach was necessary to facilitate the phase-in of the more stringent Swiss liquidity requirements, which has now been completed, and to sustain a conservative liquidity profile during the initial stages of our balance sheet stabilization and integration process.

這種方法對於促進目前已完成的更嚴格的瑞士流動性要求的逐步實施，以及在我們資產負債表穩定和整合過程的初始階段維持保守的流動性狀況是必要的。

Going forward, we expect to operate with an LCR below our 4Q '24 level of 188%, reflecting continued efforts to manage towards a more efficient funding structure and reduced uncertainties associated with execution risk.

展望未來，我們預期流動性覆蓋率將低於 24 年第四季的 188%，這反映出我們繼續努力實現更有效率的融資結構並降低與執行風險相關的不確定性。

Overall, our current funding strategy focuses on enhancing the quality of our liability portfolios while delivering cost efficiencies.

整體而言，我們目前的融資策略著重於提高負債組合的質量，同時提高成本效率。

This involves the rightsizing of our AT1 and TLAC stacks, disciplined deposit pricing and active management of our liabilities across tenors and products to ensure a robust, diversified and resilient funding profile.

這涉及到我們的 AT1 和 TLAC 堆疊的適當規模、嚴格的存款定價以及跨期限和產品的負債的積極管理，以確保強勁、多樣化和有彈性的融資狀況。

Coupled with significant balance sheet reductions achieved in 2024 and tighter spreads, these measures have already generated annual funding cost savings of $650 million with an additional $350 million expected by 2026.

加上 2024 年實現的大幅資產負債表削減和利差收緊，這些措施已帶來每年 6.5 億美元融資成本節省，預計到 2026 年還將節省 3.5 億美元。

Turning to slide 33 on RWA and starting with an update on the implementation of the final Basel III reforms, which in Switzerland took effect on January 1.

我們轉到第 33 張關於 RWA 的幻燈片，首先介紹巴塞爾協議 III 最終改革的實施情況，該改革於 1 月 1 日在瑞士生效。

We intend to report a day one impact of around $1 billion of incremental RWA, broadly neutral to our CET1 capital ratio, a result reflective of many months of intense diligent preparation.

我們打算報告第一天約 10 億美元的增量 RWA 的影響，對我們的 CET1 資本比率基本上保持中性，這一結果反映了我們數月來的緊張勤勉的準備。

This amount of RWA includes increases related to FRTB of $9 billion, decreases from credit risk-related adjustments of $1 billion and a reduction in operational risk of $7 billion.

這筆 RWA 金額包括與 FRTB 相關的 90 億美元增加額、與信用風險相關的調整導致的 10 億美元減少額以及操作風險導致的 70 億美元減少額。

Looking at our expectations through 2026, over the next two years, we expect our group RWA to increase by around 2% at constant FX from our January 1, 2025, pro forma levels.

展望 2026 年，在未來兩年內，我們預計我們的集團 RWA 將以固定匯率計算較 2025 年 1 月 1 日的預測水準增加約 2%。

This reflects around $15 billion higher RWA from business growth in the core businesses, with the offset driven by the ongoing runoff in NCL.

這反映了核心業務成長帶來的約 150 億美元的 RWA 成長，而 NCL 的持續流失則抵消了這一成長。

Summing this up, we get to the same expected RWA level at the end of 2026, as we guided a year ago.

綜上所述，我們將在 2026 年底達到預期的 RWA 水平，與一年前預測的相同。

However, with faster NCL reductions than foreseen, a lower-than-expected headwind from Basel III finalization and accelerated benefits from our balance sheet optimization efforts, we increased capacity to support additional RWA growth in our core businesses to drive incremental revenues.

然而，由於 NCL 的減少速度快於預期、巴塞爾協議 III 最終實施帶來的阻力低於預期以及資產負債表優化工作帶來的加速收益，我們提高了支持核心業務額外 RWA 增長的能力，從而推動增量收入。

In conclusion, we're pleased with the progress and achievement made in 2024.

總之，我們對 2024 年的進展和成就感到滿意。

And as we move forward, we're confident in our ability to successfully deliver on our integration plans, meet our financial targets and drive long-term value creation for our shareholders.

隨著我們不斷前進，我們有信心能夠成功實現我們的整合計劃，達到我們的財務目標，並為我們的股東創造長期價值。

With that, let's open up for questions.

現在，我們可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）高盛的克里斯·哈勒姆 (Chris Hallam)。

So on integration, on the one hand, you run ahead of plan in 2024.

因此，就整合而言，一方面，您在 2024 年提前完成了計劃。

Clearly, the RoCET1 has ended up much better than expected.

顯然，RoCET1 的結果比預期的要好得多。

But on the other hand, you're also guiding to around an extra $1 billion in cumulative integration cost by year-end '26 with an unchanged exit rate on returns.

但另一方面，您也預期到 26 年底累計整合成本將增加約 10 億美元，而退出率維持不變。

So I guess, to what extent can we characterize this as essentially the easy part of the integration has now come to an end and now the hard work on decommissioning and data integration begins, i.e., have we seen -- have we sort of front-loaded the integration tailwinds?

所以我想，在多大程度上我們可以將其描述為集成的簡單部分現在已經結束，現在退役和數據集成的艱苦工作才剛剛開始，也就是說，我們是否已經看到 - 我們是否已經預先加載了集成的順風？

Or is there still scope to outperform here over the next couple of years?

或者未來幾年是否還有超越的空間？

And then second, on capital, you have the caveat in the buyback target that this is on the basis of no material and immediate change in the current capital regime.

其次，關於資本，回購目標中有一個警告，即這是基於當前資本製度沒有重大且立即的變化。

What's your assessment of the likelihood that such changes could be both material and immediate versus the potential for them being material but with a long phase-in or smaller than expected but with immediate applicability?

您如何評估這些變更是實質性的、立即生效的可能性，還是這些變更雖然實質但需要較長時間才能逐步實施，或者變更幅度小於預期但可以立即生效？

And what is your best sense on when we might get final clarity and resolution on this topic?

您認為我們什麼時候才能就這個問題得到最終的澄清和解決？

Sergio, I think you mentioned earlier that the public consultation begins in May.

塞爾吉奧，我記得你之前提到過公眾諮詢將於五月開始。

Let me pick up the second question, and then I'll pass it to Todd.

讓我來回答第二個問題，然後我會把它交給托德。

So I think in terms of the caveating on our capital returns is quite consistent with previous language being -- staying at 14%, delivering on our financial plans, but also reducing the risk of the execution of the integration.

因此，我認為就我們的資本回報警告而言，與先前的措辭非常一致 - 保持在 14%，實現我們的財務計劃，同時也降低執行整合的風險。

So in that sense, I just want to remind that the massive migration of data we're going to go through in 2025 creates potential operational risk.

所以從這個意義上來說，我只想提醒大家，2025 年我們將要經歷的大規模資料遷移會帶來潛在的營運風險。

So we have to be prudent about how we also look at share buybacks.

因此，我們必須謹慎看待股票回購。

I can say that I'm staying confident that we will be able to do that.

我可以說，我對我們能夠做到這一點充滿信心。

Now, I have no more visibility than you have in respect of how things are going to develop other than what is publicly presented.

現在，除了公開呈現的內容之外，我對事態將如何發展並不比你們知道更多。

I can continue to say that it is, for us, not appropriate to speculate on any outcome.

我可以繼續說，對我們來說，猜測任何結果都是不合適的。

And so we will engage until the last minutes to make sure that whatever proposal is put on the place is reflecting of the concerns and topics that I raised in my remarks.

因此，我們將努力工作到最後一刻，以確保提出的任何提案都能夠反映我在發言中提出的關切和主題。

And Chris, on the first one, just to point out a few things that, no, it's not, the change is not reflective of what we consider to be more complex versus less complex.

克里斯，關於第一個問題，我只想指出幾點，不，事實並非如此，這種變化並不反映我們認為的更複雜與不太複雜的東西。

Important to note that when we developed this view a year back, this was seen as a very low multiplier when you look at $13 billion of cost to achieve versus the gross cost saves that we anticipated.

值得注意的是，當我們一年前形成這種觀點時，與我們預期的總成本節省相比，這被視為一個非常低的乘數，因為需要實現 130 億美元的成本。

And we're still even with $14 billion at a very low multiplier.

即使乘數很低，我們仍能達到 140 億美元。

And so it should be seen in that light.

我們應當從這個角度來看此事。

But it's also important to highlight that the changes were invited by certain assumptions we modeled a year ago or we saw changes, which I highlighted in my comments earlier.

但同樣需要強調的是，這些變化是由我們一年前建模的某些假設引起的，或者我們看到了變化，我之前在評論中強調過這一點。

But also importantly, we've identified incremental opportunities as we work through the integration to unlock additional shareholder value and that's taken some incremental cost to achieve that.

但同樣重要的是，我們在整合過程中發現了增量機會，以釋放額外的股東價值，而實現這一目標需要一些增量成本。

Anke Reingen, RBC.

安克·雷因根（Anke Reingen），RBC。

Two questions, please.

請問兩個問題。

On the first one, coming back to the too-big-to-fail rules, I mean you stressed a few times the potential impact on your return currently -- current assumptions based on 14%.

關於第一個問題，回到「大而不倒」的規則，我的意思是你強調了幾次對你目前的回報的潛在影響——目前的假設是基於 14%。

I know there's a lot of uncertainty, but do you think considering depending on the outcome, you will have room to offset your ROE dilution from more capital requirements?

我知道存在許多不確定性，但您是否認為，根據結果，您將有空間透過更多的資本要求來抵消 ROE 稀釋？

And then, thank you on the US wealth management operation, a few details here.

然後，感謝您對美國財富管理業務的介紹，這裡有一些細節。

Just wondering, obviously, you talked about improving the performance of US operations a few times before.

只是想知道，顯然，您之前幾次談到提高美國業務的績效。

So what's really different this time that this will work out?

那麼這次到底有何不同，能夠成功嗎？

Thank you, Anke.

謝謝你，安克。

Unfortunately, as I mentioned before, there is no easy fixes, and there is no potential offset on the table that is not already planned and communicated.

不幸的是，正如我之前提到的，沒有簡單的解決辦法，而且目前還沒有任何尚未計劃和傳達的潛在抵消措施。

So no easy fixes, no low-hanging fruits, whatever comes is on top of our plans, and it will be dilutive.

因此，沒有簡單的解決辦法，也沒有唾手可得的成果，無論發生什麼，都在我們的計畫之中，而且會稀釋我們的利益。

Todd?

托德？

Yes, Anke.

是的，安克。

Look, in terms of what's different, we wanted to highlight the things that we're doing now and demonstrate the initiatives we're undertaking and the plans that we have that will help us chip away.

就不同之處而言，我們想強調我們現在正在做的事情，並展示我們正在採取的舉措和有助於我們取得進展的計劃。

We're being realistic in terms of what we think the margins can be over the midterm, and we have a very comprehensive way at that.

我們對中期選舉的利潤率持現實態度，我們有一個非常全面的方法。

There is no silver bullet where there's one thing where you say that's going to effectively transform the pre-tax margin.

沒有什麼靈丹妙藥可以有效改變稅前利潤。

But what I think you heard me say, and Sergio alluded to in his opening, is that we're very focused to execute across these various levers.

但我想你聽到我說了，塞爾吉奧在開幕式上也提到了，我們非常專注於執行這些不同的槓桿。

We're implementing them all, and they're -- in the collective, we're going to contribute to improving the efficiency of the business.

我們正在實施所有這些措施，並且我們將共同努力，為提高業務效率做出貢獻。

So I'd say that's our focus and that's where we're looking -- that's the outcome we're looking to drive.

所以我想說，這是我們的重點，也是我們所關注的──也是我們想要實現的結果。

Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的 Jeremy Sigee。

Two questions, please.

請問兩個問題。

Firstly, just a sort of revenue in the quarter, the capital markets growth, so ECM and DCM, was a bit less than some of the peer groups, 11% year on year.

首先，本季的營收、資本市場的成長（ECM 和 DCM）略低於一些同行，年增 11%。

I just wondered if there's any mix reasons for that or if there's any sort of delay still in Credit Suisse teams becoming fully productive.

我只是想知道是否有其他原因導致這種情況，或者瑞信團隊是否仍無法完全發揮其生產力。

So just a question on capital markets revenues.

所以這只是一個關於資本市場收入的問題。

And then second question is on the foreign subsidiaries topic.

第二個問題是關於外國子公司的話題。

It sounds like you've reduced the UBS Americas CET1 ratio to around 20% from the previous 27%.

聽起來您已將瑞銀美洲 CET1 比率從之前的 27% 降低至 20% 左右。

In the past, you had run that anywhere from 14% to 22%.

過去，您的運行比例在 14% 到 22% 之間。

Is it realistic to think about going back into the mid-to-high teens in that subsidiary on a say five-year view?

假設以五年為週期，讓該子公司的獲利水準回到中高水平，這現實嗎？

Jeremy, just on the second one.

傑里米，我只想談第二個問題。

So we are targeting, and as you acknowledge from the capital repatriation, the CET1 capital and the IHC has come down significantly.

因此，我們設定了目標，正如您從資本匯回中認識到的那樣，CET1 資本和 IHC 已大幅下降。

We are targeting a lower CET1 capital ratio, say, in the upper teens level.

我們的目標是降低 CET1 資本比率，例如，達到 15% 以上的水平。

But on a like-for-like basis, under the Swiss standards, that's more in line with the 13% to 15% CET1 capital ratio.

但以瑞士標準，以同類基礎計算，這更符合 13% 至 15% 的 CET1 資本比率。

So that addresses that.

這就解決了這個問題。

On the IB question, just to point out, on DCM, clearly, we're underweight versus peers.

關於 IB 問題，需要指出的是，在 DCM 方面，我們與同業相比顯然持股不足。

So you're seeing that manifest in the -- in our performance.

所以，您會在我們的表現中看到這一點。

In ECM, as I highlighted, we're building, but the timing of our pipeline build is likely to yield more payback later in 2025 into 2026.

正如我所強調的，在 ECM 中，我們正在建設，但我們的管道建設時機可能會在 2025 年後期到 2026 年帶來更多回報。

Kian Abouhossein, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Kian Abouhossein。

I really only have question regarding the key slide 32.

我確實只對鍵滑塊 32 有疑問。

Sergio, I get the message, don't get over excited in terms of how capital would be repatriated and solved potentially a capital issue, but if I look at slide 32, and I got very excited when I saw the $30 billion, but clearly, it hasn't ended up in the parent bank.

塞爾吉奧，我明白了，不要對資本如何匯回並解決潛在的資本問題感到過度興奮，但如果我看第 32 張幻燈片，當我看到 300 億美元時我感到非常興奮，但顯然，這筆錢並沒有進入母銀行。

It has been further upstreams, it looks like it.

看起來，它已經到達上游了。

And I'm just trying to understand the rationale of the upstream and also trying to understand if there is room to downstream again, if necessary.

我只是想要了解上游的基本原理，同時也想了解如果有需要，是否還有再次下游的空間。

And in that context, we're also trying to understand how much more capital is there in CS international.

在此背景下，我們也試著了解瑞信國際還有多少資本。

It should be something like $5 billion to $6 billion from what I calculate, and if there's any other subsidiary that you would highlight was there's room for potential further upstreaming into the parent going forward.

根據我的計算，這個數字應該在 50 億到 60 億美元之間，如果您要強調的是其他子公司未來還有進一步向母公司上游擴張的潛在空間。

So really just trying to square the process.

所以實際上只是試著讓過程公平化。

I'm a little bit confused in that sense.

就這個意義上來說我有點困惑。

And if you could help me, I would really appreciate.

如果你能幫助我，我將非常感激。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

And I really appreciate your enthusiasm, and I'm sorry that you started with an enthusiasm, and then, you ended up being confused.

我真的很欣賞你的熱情，很抱歉你一開始很熱情，但最後卻變得困惑。

So in that sense, I can only reiterate that we don't really have some -- so much low-hanging fruits here.

所以從這個意義上來說，我只能重申，我們這裡確實沒有那麼多唾手可得的成果。

There is no short fixes.

沒有簡短的修復。

There are technicalities that I think that Todd can explain you now, but that's essentially the situation.

我認為托德現在可以向您解釋一些技術細節，但本質上的情況就是這樣。

So we have been quite coherent and consistent in saying and planning for capital, well ahead of the curve when we started to plan for the 2026 targets.

因此，當我們開始規劃 2026 年目標時，我們在資本方面的陳述和規劃一直非常連貫和一致，遠遠領先於時代。

Just to add, I'm a bank analyst, I can get excited very quickly.

補充一下，我是銀行分析師，我很快就會興奮起來。

So just

所以

--

--

Kian, I think it's worth just pointing out that remember, we acquired Credit Suisse, and the capital ratios at the parent bank were distressed relative to what UBS AG's fully applied capital ratio was and the strength and resilience of our capital on the UBS side.

基安，我認為值得指出的是，記住，我們收購了瑞士信貸，母行的資本比率相對於瑞銀集團的完全應用資本比率以及瑞銀方面的資本實力和彈性而言處於困境中。

Also to consider the equity double leverage that was there on the Credit Suisse side.

也要考慮瑞士信貸方面的股權雙重槓桿。

And as we inherited that, the pressure it put on our own just given what we had to address and pushing up that double leverage.

當我們繼承這一點時，它給我們自己帶來的壓力決定了我們必須解決的問題，並提升了雙重槓桿。

So taking out the capital and rebalancing the capital from former Credit Suisse subsidiaries in, say, the UK and the US up to the parent and fundamentally at group level, as you say, has been part of the plan, but also helps to alleviate the pressure in the equity double leverage.

因此，正如您所說，從瑞信前英國和美國子公司提取資本並重新平衡至母公司，並從根本上在集團層面，是計劃的一部分，但也有助於緩解股權雙重槓桿的壓力。

And I think that's an important point to mention.

我認為這是值得提及的重點。

And that's why we made the comment that if there's going to be onerous capital imposed on the parent bank, it's going to be funded with the retention of future profits.

這就是為什麼我們會評論說，如果要對母銀行施加繁重的資本，那麼它將透過保留未來的利潤來提供資金。

And just on double leverage, how much of the $13 billion do you actually require for double leverage?

僅就雙重槓桿而言，130 億美元中實際上需要多少雙重槓桿？

And how much do you allocate for payback to shareholders?

您撥出多少錢來回報股東？

So we just get an idea how much is potentially access in the holding if there's any.

因此，我們只是知道如果有的話，持有的資產可能有多少。

It's -- look, of that amount that we have repatriated, it's a significant part of it that is used to support moving to a more normalized equity double leverage level, a significant portion of it.

你看，在我們匯回的金額中，很大一部分是用來支持轉向更正常化的股權雙槓桿水準。

Okay.

好的。

And just on the $6 billion in the CS International, roughly $5 billion to $6 billion, is that correct that's what's remaining?

僅就 CS International 的 60 億美元而言，剩下的大約是 50 億到 60 億美元，對嗎？

Yes, I highlighted that in my comments as well that that's what we see.

是的，我在我的評論中也強調了這一點，這就是我們所看到的。

Naturally, it's a function of timing and ensuring that we continue to run down the positions in that entity and get the support from the regulator to repatriate the remaining capital in that entity as we transfer our positions, as I mentioned.

當然，這是一個時機問題，並確保我們在轉移頭寸時繼續減少該實體的頭寸，並獲得監管機構的支持，以便將該實體的剩餘資本匯回國內，正如我所提到的。

And there could be leakage between now and then if we have losses in the entities.

如果我們的實體遭受損失，那麼從現在到那時，可能就會出現洩漏。

So conservatively, I had mentioned around $5 billion that would come from CSI from here.

因此保守地說，我曾提到從這裡開始CSI將帶來約50億美元的資金。

Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Giulia Miotto。

I have two.

我有兩個。

Going back to slide 31 on the non-core deleveraging.

回到第 31 張投影片，討論非核心去槓桿。

How is it possible that -- if I exclude op risk, which I understand is driven by a formula, that's fine, but credit and market risk, RWAs came down by $42 billion since Q2 '23.

如果我排除營運風險（據我所知，這是由公式驅動的），那沒問題，但信貸和市場風險，即 RWA 自 23 年第二季以來下降了 420 億美元，這是怎麼可能的呢？

And now you only plan -- took up $7 billion in '25, why wouldn't we expect a faster deleveraging there given that the market is still very supportive?

而現在你只計劃——在 25 年投入 70 億美元，考慮到市場仍然非常支持，為什麼我們不期望那裡的去槓桿速度更快呢？

And then secondly, thanks for all the additional detail on the GWM in the US.

其次，感謝您提供有關美國長城汽車的更多詳細資訊。

On the NII discussion in that division, which I look forward to the disclosure in Q1, I guess having -- operating under a national charter rather than Utah would help.

關於該部門的 NII 討論，我期待在第一季度披露，我想，按照國家憲章而不是猶他州的章程開展業務會有所幫助。

How quickly do you expect to get that license, please?

請問您預計多久可以取得該許可證？

Giulia, so on the credit and market risk ambition in terms of the levels taking it down, I think this goes really to the point I highlighted in my comments in the context of the underlying PBT we see in '25 versus '24.

朱莉婭，關於信貸和市場風險的降低水平，我認為這確實符合我在評論中強調的觀點，即 2025 年與 2024 年相比，基礎 PBT 的背景下。

I made comments that the positions at this point are much smaller than we've seen.

我評論說，目前的部位比我們所見的要小得多。

They're hedged.

他們採取了對沖措施。

At times, they could be -- could have transfer restrictions associated with them.

有時，他們可能會有相關的轉讓限制。

We have to ensure the counterparty is willing to terminate.

我們必須確保對方願意終止。

There could be exotic security types with bespoke features that limit potential buyers.

可能會存在具有自訂功能的特殊證券類型來限制潛在買家。

So there are a lot of issues as you get down into the portfolio and you have much smaller positions in these books that's going to take extensive amount of work to see chip away at progress.

因此，當你深入研究投資組合時，你會發現有很多問題，而且這些帳簿上的持倉規模要小得多，需要大量的工作才能取得進展。

So a lot of the big rocks and larger positions that generated significant RWA reduction, but also invited an ability to exit at levels above book value, are going to become further and -- farther and less likely as we move forward.

因此，隨著我們前進，許多大石頭和較大的頭寸雖然顯著減少了 RWA，但也提供了以高於賬面價值的水平退出的能力，但這種可能性將越來越小。

So I think it's just important to understand that in the context as well of the RWA rundown.

因此，我認為在 RWA 概要的背景下理解這一點也很重要。

In terms of the -- to your second question on the national charter and the timing, look, we're working on moving forward with getting the application in.

關於您提出的第二個問題，即國家憲章和時間安排，我們正在努力推進該申請。

It's a lot of work being done.

還有很多工作要做。

And we're going to work as quickly as we can to get that rolled out and to enhance our banking product offering.

我們將盡快推出這項服務並增強我們的銀行產品。

I mean, we're not standing still at the moment.

我的意思是，我們目前並沒有停滯不前。

We're doing a lot of work in that respect now also to go live.

目前我們正在做大量這方面的工作以便上線。

But certainly, the -- having that license will unlock certain product capabilities that just aren't possible until we have it.

但可以肯定的是，擁有該許可證將解鎖某些產品功能，而這些功能在我們擁有它之前不可能實現。

Got it.

知道了。

But is it fair to expect, I don't know, three years, longer, shorter?

但我不知道，這樣的預期是否公平，三年，更長還是更短？

Giulia, I think that's just something we'll continue to update you on.

朱莉婭，我想我們會繼續向您通報這一情況。

I don't want to predict the process because we're working, obviously, also with supervisors to get that -- get the license approved.

我不想預測這個過程，因為我們顯然也在與主管人員合作以獲得許可證批准。

So the timeline is something we're working actively on, but we'll keep you updated.

因此，我們正在積極制定時間表，並會隨時向您通報最新情況。

And maybe just to add on, on non-core, we always say that at the end of the day, of course, if we really want to take down market and credit risk overnight, we probably find a price at which to do it.

也許需要補充一點，關於非核心，我們總是說，當然，如果我們真的想在一夜之間降低市場和信用風險，我們可能會找到一個合適的價格來做到這一點。

But now if that price is well in excess of our cost of capital and expected return, that would be a stupid trade.

但現在如果該價格遠遠超過我們的資本成本和預期回報，那將是一筆愚蠢的交易。

So we are constantly looking to optimize shareholder interest as we wind down this asset.

因此，我們在逐步減少這項資產的過程中始終致力於優化股東利益。

So it doesn't really make sense to create new capital at a cost that is well above how we expect to deliver in terms of returns.

因此，以遠高於我們預期回報的成本來創造新資本確實沒有任何意義。

Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous Research.

Stefan Stalmann，自主研究。

I wanted to ask about the US wealth management plans, please.

我想問一下美國財富管理計劃的情況。

It looks like you're tilting away the business mix from the high end of the market towards more affluent and lower wealth brackets, which is pretty much the opposite of what you've been trying to achieve over the last 20 years, I would say.

看起來你們正在將業務組合從高端市場轉向更富裕和更低財富的階層，我想說，這與你們過去 20 年一直努力實現的目標完全相反。

What has changed?

有什麼改變？

Why are you coming to this different assessment of the relative attractiveness of different wealth brackets in the US?

為什麼您對美國不同財富階層的相對吸引力做出不同的評價？

And the second question, I just wanted to make sure that I understood this correctly.

對於第二個問題，我只是想確保我理解得正確。

The share buyback plans and aims that you outlined, they are not yet accrued and deducted from CET1 capital at the year end, isn't it?

您概述的股票回購計劃和目標尚未在年底提列並從 CET1 資本中扣除，是嗎？

Stefan, the -- yes, with respect to the $2 billion that we aim to buy back based on the conditionality that Sergio described, that is correct.

史蒂芬，是的，關於我們根據塞爾吉奧所描述的條件計劃回購的 20 億美元，這是正確的。

On the US wealth side, I think it's just important to point out that it's not a shift in strategy.

就美國財富方面而言，我認為有必要指出，這並不是戰略的轉變。

What we said was we're looking to rebalance more into the high net worth and affluent client segments.

我們說過，我們希望重新平衡高淨值和富裕客戶群。

And the reality there is that, one, we're quite overweight in ultra, which is, of course, our strength.

而現實情況是，首先，我們在超級馬拉松方面實力雄厚，當然也是我們的強項。

But it's also important to point out that the return on assets in that segment versus as you move down client segments is, of course, lower.

但同樣需要指出的是，該細分市場的資產報酬率與其他客戶細分市場的資產報酬率相比當然較低。

And so the profitability as you move down segments is higher.

因此，隨著細分市場的進一步細分，獲利能力會更高。

And so what we're trying to do is rebalance so to stay, obviously, very -- to stay very penetrated in ultra, but to increase our penetration in high net worth and affluent so to create a better balance in line -- more in line with the market, a bit more in line, although, of course, we want to stay more overweight at the top end because as I said, that's our strength and our -- what we bring to -- the strength that we bring to the table.

因此，我們試圖做的就是重新平衡，顯然，要保持在超級市場的滲透率，但要增加我們在高淨值和富裕階層的滲透率，從而創造更好的平衡，更符合市場，更符合市場，當然，我們希望在高端市場保持更多的超重，因為正如我所說的，這是我們的優勢，也是我們帶來的優勢。

But it's just really important to emphasize that -- yes, that -- versus the market, you could see that as we have on slide 26 that we're looking just to shift and rebalance more into high net worth and affluent where the profitability has improved.

但真正需要強調的是——是的——與市場相比，正如我們在第 26 頁幻燈片上看到的那樣，我們只是希望轉向和重新平衡高淨值和富裕階層，因為盈利能力已經提高。

And the point is that it's a rebalancing as opposed to a strategy change.

重點在於，這是一種重新平衡，而不是策略改變。

Okay.

好的。

May I just quickly follow up on the first part of the question?

我可以快速回答一下問題的第一部分嗎？

Is the $1 billion share buyback plan also not deducted from CET1 capital?

10億美元的股票回購計畫是否也不會從CET1資本中扣除？

Or is it?

或者是？

That's in.

就在裡面。

Andrew Coombs, Citi.

花旗銀行的安德魯庫姆斯 (Andrew Coombs)。

One follow-up on GWM Americas and then perhaps I can touch on P&C, NII.

關於 GWM Americas 的後續問題，然後我或許可以談談 P&C、NII。

On the GWM Americas, you highlighted a couple of times how you are adjusting the FA incentives to align them better with your strategic goals around net new money by an acquisition and NII growth.

在 GWM Americas 上，您多次強調如何調整 FA 激勵措施，以使其更好地與您的策略目標保持一致，即透過收購和 NII 成長實現淨新資金。

I don't know if you can just elaborate a bit more there on exactly what changes you are making, how you think those changes compare to your US peer group, especially given your comment in the near term, it might lead some FA attrition and lower net new money.

我不知道您是否可以更詳細地說明您所做的改變，您認為這些改變與美國同行相比如何，尤其是考慮到您在近期的評論，這可能會導致一些 FA 人員流失和淨新資金減少。

So that's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

Second question on the P&C NII.

第二個問題關於 P&C NII。

It obviously has been one of your biggest headwinds.

這顯然是你面臨的最大阻力之一。

You're guiding to a -- I think your exact words were, much more pronounced drop this year than last year, but you're still expecting it to plateau after the second quarter.

您的預測是——我想您的確切說法是，今年的下降幅度比去年要大得多，但您仍然預計第二季後將趨於平穩。

So can I just ask what are your rates assumptions to the SMB rates?

那我可以問一下您對中小企業利率的假設是什麼嗎？

And I think you made a comment that it should plateau regardless of where the rate trajectory is thereafter, so probably you could elaborate on that.

我認為您曾說過，無論此後利率軌跡如何，它都應該保持穩定，因此您可以對此進行詳細說明。

And then also what are your loan assumptions, given that your loan balance has shrunk by another couple of billion this quarter?

那麼，考慮到本季您的貸款餘額又縮水了幾十億美元，您的貸款假設是什麼？

So first, on your first question in -- with respect to the FA comp changes, I think the changes that I highlighted that align better with our strategy also are more aligned to what we believe or observe are the comp models at our competitors as well.

首先，關於您的第一個問題——關於 FA 薪酬變化，我認為我所強調的變化與我們的策略更加一致，也與我們所相信或觀察到的競爭對手的薪酬模式更加一致。

We had certain features.

我們具有某些特點。

We think that we're perhaps off market, and we are looking more to align with what our peers do.

我們認為我們或許已經脫離了市場，我們正在尋求與同行保持一致的做法。

But I think the more important point, though, is that in discussing this with many financial advisers in getting their take on these changes, it's clear that those who are very aligned with our strategy of bringing value to their clients and growing their books of business, and as I said, bringing more solutions to their clients from essentially across what we can offer, those FAs will benefit in this model, and they'll get paid more, and I think that's the key point.

但我認為更重要的一點是，在與許多財務顧問討論這一問題並了解他們對這些變化的看法時，很明顯，那些非常認同我們的策略的人，即為他們的客戶帶來價值並擴大他們的業務，正如我所說的，從我們提供的服務中為他們的客戶帶來更多的解決方案，那些財務顧問將從這種模式中受益，他們會得到更多的關鍵報酬，我認為這是這一點。

My comment about FA attrition is just that those who may have benefited from features that we have eliminated may decide that they would be better off trading away, and we have to cater for that prospect in our modeling.

我對 FA 人員流失的評論是，那些可能從我們消除的功能中受益的人可能會決定，他們最好進行交易，我們必須在我們的建模中迎合這種前景。

And so that's why I mentioned that.

這就是我提到這一點的原因。

But it's important to keep in mind that the changes we're making are really not intended to reduce compensation, but to increase it as long as it's being done in ways that are very aligned with our strategy.

但必須牢記的是，我們所做的改變並非旨在減少薪酬，而是為了在符合我們策略的情況下增加薪酬。

And I think that's the most important point.

我認為這是最重要的一點。

On P&C net interest income, you had several questions.

關於財產和意外淨利息收入，您有幾個問題。

I mean in terms of rate assumptions, well, first of all, the current rates are at 50 basis points having come down 125 basis points over the last three quarters of 2024.

我的意思是，就利率假設而言，首先，當前利率為 50 個基點，在 2024 年最後三個季度下降了 125 個基點。

There's an expectation if you look at implied forwards that the rate curve will approach near-zero.

如果你看一下隱含的遠期利率，你會發現利率曲線將接近零。

So there is really a lack of deposit margin room for maneuver as we look out, which is why we think that the full-year 2025 NII, especially if rates move down further, will be even more pronounced than the Q1 guidance.

因此，從我們的角度來看，存款保證金的調整空間確實不足，這就是為什麼我們認為 2025 年全年 NII（特別是如果利率進一步下降）將比第一季的指引更加明顯。

I talk about plateauing once we inflect because if you look at the yield curve, it's actually quite flat, if not even inverted, but it's certainly flat.

我談到一旦發生拐點就會進入平台期，因為如果你看殖利率曲線，它實際上相當平坦，即使沒有倒掛，但肯定是平坦的。

And as such, we don't see movements in it.

因此，我們看不到其中的動靜。

So therefore, if it's effectively hitting a trough, I see it plateauing.

因此，如果它實際上跌到了低谷，我認為它就會進入穩定期。

And then I commented, which was your other question, if rates move, obviously, if they move up, it gives us a bit more deposit margin room for maneuver.

然後我評論說，這是你的另一個問題，如果利率變動，顯然，如果利率上升，這會給我們更多的存款保證金迴旋餘地。

If they move down into negative territory, that is also helpful because we can typically charge certain clients and also drive greater lending NIM as well.

如果它們降至負值區域，那也是有幫助的，因為我們通常可以向某些客戶收取費用，同時還可以推動更高的貸款淨利息收入。

As far as the expectation around loan balances, we have a stable outlook for lending in P&C and also a stable outlook for deposits in P&C.

就貸款餘額的預期而言，我們對財產和意外事故保險的貸款前景持穩定態度，對財產和意外保險的存款前景也持穩定態度。

So we're quite focused continuing to do balance sheet optimization, ensure that the pricing reflects the appropriate cost of risk and capital.

因此，我們非常注重繼續進行資產負債表優化，確保定價反映適當的風險和資本成本。

And on the deposit side, we've been very thoughtful in how we have moved pricing down in relation to the central bank dropping rates in order to retain deposits where possible.

在存款方面，我們經過深思熟慮，考慮如何根據央行降息來降低價格，以便盡可能保留存款。

Amit Goel, Mediobanca.

阿米特·戈埃爾 (Amit Goel)，Mediobanca。

Thank you for the clarifications on the capital.

感謝您對首都的澄清。

I've got just a couple of questions, again, on the US business.

我對美國業務還有幾個問題。

So I guess, one, I was just -- I just wanted to understand a bit better as you get to the 15% PBT margin in '27, what is the kind of plan or thought process in terms of getting to kind of peer levels or 25%, 30% operating margin in the future?

所以我想，首先，我只是——我只是想更好地了解一下，當你在 27 年實現 15% 的稅前利潤率時，為了達到同行水平或未來 25%、30% 的營業利潤率，有什麼樣的計劃或思維過程？

I don't know if you think peers are overearning.

我不知道您是否認為同齡人的收入過高。

But what the step is there?

但那步驟是什麼呢？

And is building out a more comprehensive banking offering and delivery model is part of that?

而建構更全面的銀行服務和交付模式是其中的一部分嗎？

But -- what cost is involved in that?

但是──這需要付出什麼代價呢？

And then secondly, also, just curious, in terms of the PBT margin that you're targeting, the 15% in '27, I think previously, you were talking about mid-teens in '26.

其次，同樣，只是好奇，就您所瞄準的 PBT 利潤率而言，27 年是 15%，我想之前您談論的是 26 年的十五六成左右。

So just to check, is that slightly later?

那麼，只是檢查一下，是不是稍晚一點？

Or is it the same basic expectation?

或者說是相同的基本期望？

Yes.

是的。

In terms of the expectations, well, we haven't really articulated that other than I've said in the past that expected mid-teens in the midterm.

就預期而言，除了我過去說過的預計中期選舉勝利分數會達到十五六名以外，我們還沒有真正表達過這一點。

We talked about the business, and Sergio and I have been doing this.

我們談論了生意，塞爾吉奧和我一直在做這件事。

So I don't think it's inconsistent.

所以我不認為這不一致。

But we're talking over the next couple of years to continue to build, and we think by 2027, we'll be at that mid-teens level.

但我們計劃在未來幾年繼續建設，並且我們認為到 2027 年，我們將達到十幾歲的中等水平。

I mean, as far as comparing to peers, I mean we don't -- this isn't a comparison to peers for us -- or sorry, narrowing.

我的意思是，就與同行相比而言，我的意思是我們不會——這不是與同行的比較——或者抱歉，範圍縮小了。

It's not about effectively catching peers, but it's more about narrowing the gap.

這並不是為了有效地追趕同行，而是為了縮小差距。

That's what we've said consistently in order to improve the overall cost-to-income ratio for the business overall.

為了改善整個業務的整體成本收入比，我們一直這麼說。

And in the US to put us in a position where we're contributing significantly more to the overall profitability of Global Wealth Management.

在美國，我們對全球財富管理的整體獲利能力做出了更大的貢獻。

In terms of the banking capabilities and the other capabilities I talked about, those investments are catered for in my comments.

就銀行能力和我談到的其他能力而言，我的評論中已經提到了這些投資。

I did say that we're making incremental technology investments and also investments in our capabilities.

我確實說過，我們正在逐步進行技術投資，並且也在對我們的能力進行投資。

And in the collective, that's also being priced into our 2025 pre-tax margin expectation, but also as we guided looking out to 2027 as well.

整體而言，這也已計入我們對 2025 年稅前利潤率的預期中，同時也是我們對 2027 年的預期。

Can I just follow up just in terms of that investment in terms of points of operating margin?

我能否就營業利益率的投資進行跟進？

Would that be kind of 2, 3 or 5 percentage points of operating margin that you're investing in those years?

您在這幾年投資的營業利益率是 2%、3% 還是 5%？

Or just to think about thereafter, how much could potentially drop out?

或者只是事後想想，可能會有多少損失？

Or how much is just ongoing investment?

或只是持續投資多少？

I'd just say the investments that we're making, we already -- we've been investing in the business.

我只想說，我們已經在對這項業務進行投資了。

So it's important to keep that in mind.

因此牢記這一點很重要。

But we are making now.

但我們現在正在做。

We're ensuring that the investments that we make in technology are done in a way where the payback is improved, as I mentioned, improved ROI.

我們確保在技術方面的投資能夠提高回報，也就是提高投資報酬率。

We are also funding incremental investments, as I say, and that is captured in the pre-tax margin expectation for 2025 and as we grow it.

正如我所說，我們也在為增量投資提供資金，這體現在 2025 年的稅前利潤預期以及我們的成長中。

So I wouldn't model it falling out.

所以我不會模仿它掉下來的樣子。

I mean this will be technology investments we're going to continue to make for the business to help it grow.

我的意思是，我們將繼續對業務進行技術投資，以幫助其發展。

Antonio Reale, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安東尼奧·雷亞萊 (Antonio Reale)。

It's Antonio from Bank of America.

我是美國銀行的安東尼奧。

Two questions from me, please.

請問我兩個問題。

Actually, it's two follow-ups really, one on capital and one on the P&C.

實際上，這實際上是兩個後續問題，一個是關於資本，一個是關於財產和意外保險。

So you've repatriated $13 billion capital at the parent company this quarter.

所以本季你們已經將 130 億美元的資本匯回母公司。

And despite that, your CET1 ratio at the AG level was only up 20 bps or so Q-on-Q to 13.5%.

儘管如此，您的 AG 等級的 CET1 比率僅較上季上升 20 個基點左右，達到 13.5%。

Now could you please explain why that was the case?

現在您能解釋一下為什麼會出現這種情況嗎？

And maybe talk us through the moving parts.

也許可以向我們介紹一下活動部件。

I'm sorry if it's a repetition, but I think it's important.

如果重複的話我很抱歉，但我認為這很重要。

And the second question is, again, a follow-up on your Swiss business.

第二個問題還是關於您的瑞士業務的後續問題。

You've talked about your NII guidance.

您已經談到了您的 NII 指導。

Can you just remind us your sensitivity to rates and hedging structure in Switzerland?

您能否提醒我們一下您對瑞士利率和避險結構的敏感度？

And more in general, what flexibility would you have to mitigate some of this trend on NII with the rest of the P&L?

更一般地說，您可以透過哪些靈活性來緩解 NII 和其餘損益表的這種趨勢？

You've alluded to more cost synergies.

您提到了更多的成本綜效。

So if you can share a little bit more about the moving parts of the P&L, that would be super helpful.

因此，如果您可以分享更多有關損益表變動部分的信息，那將會非常有幫助。

So in terms of the mitigants a bit to the headwinds, we're definitely focusing on driving, as you saw in 4Q, continuing to drive where possible non-NII revenue growth, improve on recurring revenue in P&C and also on transaction revenues that will be a focus to partially offset the headwinds that we see in P&C.

因此，就緩解不利因素的措施而言，正如您在第四季度看到的那樣，我們肯定會專注於推動非 NII 收入成長，提高 P&C 的經常性收入以及交易收入，這將成為部分抵消我們在 P&C 中看到的不利因素的重點。

I mean as far as abilities to effectively hedge or extend duration, I mean, that's just not -- when the rates are this low and with a flat yield curve, extending duration, for example, on non-maturing deposits doesn't offer much of an advantage at all.

我的意思是，就有效對沖或延長期限的能力而言，當利率如此低且殖利率曲線平坦時，延長非定期存款的期限並沒有帶來太大的優勢。

In fact, it could lock in funding costs and rather than allow us to benefit from future rate cuts, including if they go below zero and also creates some mismatched risk -- mismatch risk as well.

事實上，它可以鎖定融資成本，而不會讓我們從未來的降息中受益，包括如果利率降至零以下，同時也會產生一些不匹配的風險——不匹配風險。

So if the rates are going to near-zero, as I said, we have very limited room for maneuverability, and we just have to wait until we see some daylight in terms of changes in that yield curve.

因此，如果利率接近零，正如我所說，我們的操作空間就非常有限，我們只需要等待，直到殖利率曲線出現一些變化。

On the capital question you had in terms of what you're missing, I think in terms of the CET1 capital ratio at UBS AG after it received the capital from the subsidiaries, we are accruing a dividend to the parent to address the point that I made before in response to Kian's question.

關於您所遺漏的資本問題，我認為，就瑞銀集團從子公司獲得資本後的 CET1 資本比率而言，我們正在向母公司計提股息，以解決我之前在回答 Kian 的問題時提出的問題。

So it's a dividend accrual that will serve as an offset to the -- sorry, dividend accrual to group, to be clear, to offset the capital repatriated to AG, its first year subsidiary.

因此，這是一種股息應計，將作為對集團股息應計的抵消，明確地說，是為了抵消匯回其第一年子公司 AG 的資本。

Piers Brown, HSBC.

皮爾斯布朗，匯豐銀行。

I've just got two follow-ups.

我剛剛收到了兩個後續訊息。

One, I just wanted to make sure I got the message correct on client risk appetite.

首先，我只是想確保我正確傳達了客戶的風險偏好訊息。

I mean, you've talked about the move into sweep accounts, and obviously, the fourth-quarter NII was much better than we anticipated.

我的意思是，您談到了轉向清算帳戶，顯然，第四季度的 NII 比我們預期的要好得多。

But then, on the transaction side, you're a little bit below Street expectations.

但在交易方面，你略低於華爾街的預期。

And if I look at the loan number, that's still declining.

如果我看一下貸款數字，它仍在下降。

So just appetite for releveraging and sort of look forward on client activity into the first quarter, can you comment on that, please?

因此，只是對再槓桿化的興趣以及對第一季客戶活動的期待，您能對此發表評論嗎？

And then just a technical question maybe on the Basel III final outcome.

然後可能只是一個關於巴塞爾協議 III 最終結果的技術問題。

I mean that's -- it's basically no change to CET1.

我的意思是——這對 CET1 來說基本上沒有變化。

I think you had guided to a 30 basis points impact originally.

我認為您最初指導的是 30 個基點的影響。

So what's moved in your favor on implementation of Basel III final that's caused that delta?

那麼，在實施巴塞爾協議 III 最終版本方面，哪些因素對您有利，導致了這種差異？

Piers, so on -- I'll just take your second question first.

皮爾斯，等等——我先回答你的第二個問題。

So in terms of the Basel III, look, I have guided down last quarter to a lower level than I had been guiding as we started to get more visibility and make progress.

因此，就巴塞爾協議 III 而言，隨著我們開始獲得更多的透明度並取得進展，我已將上個季度的指引下調至比之前指引的更低水準。

The team has done an excellent job at ensuring that we were able to mitigate where we can.

團隊出色地完成了工作，確保我們能夠盡可能地減輕影響。

I mean, some of the aspects that were at work are infrastructure improvements, model alignments, also exiting positions and running down risks.

我的意思是，正在進行的一些面向包括基礎設施改進、模型調整、退出頭寸和降低風險。

So all of those things contributed to our ability to be able to ultimately print a day one level that's far inside where we had guided.

所以所有這些事情都促使我們最終能夠列印出遠遠超出我們所指導範圍的第一天的水平。

In terms of releveraging opportunities, for sure, in Global Wealth Management with rates potentially higher or not going -- coming down as quickly as perhaps we anticipated a quarter ago or certainly two quarters ago, that's going to be helpful for deposit margins, as I mentioned, but probably will have a little bit of a chilling effect on releveraging, which is something that with rates coming down, we expect to see both in all parts of the wealth business, which involves really where we have US dollar exposure in the US business naturally, but also in our APAC part of the business.

就再槓桿化機會而言，全球財富管理領域的利率可能會走高，也可能不會像我們一個季度前或兩個季度前預期的那樣快速下降，這將對存款保證金有幫助，但可能會對再槓桿化產生一點寒蟬效應，隨著利率下降，我們預計在財富業務的所有部分都會看到這種現象，這涉及到我們在美國業務中涉及的美元

And so we -- if rates sort of back up, then we'll have positive effects on deposit margins, but the extent of releveraging that we're pricing into the outlook, we may see that come in less aggressively.

因此，如果利率回升，那麼我們將對存款保證金產生積極影響，但是，考慮到我們預期的前景再槓桿率的程度，我們可能會看到這種影響不那麼劇烈。

That's perfect.

那很完美。

Just on Global Banking, you mentioned a 20% change in pipeline.

就全球銀行業務而言，您提到了通路變化了 20%。

Was that up or down?

是漲還是跌？

I didn't catch that.

我沒聽清楚。

What we mentioned is not our pipeline.

我們提到的不是我們的管道。

What we said is that according to market data, so the industry is down 26% year to date, so -- for the first month.

我們說的是，根據市場數據，今年迄今，該產業第一個月下滑了 26%。

So our pipeline is building up.

因此我們的管道正在建設中。

We are very confident about the ability to generate new business and build up our market share.

我們對創造新業務和擴大市場份額的能力非常有信心。

But if you look at according to market data, January on January, the amount of fees and activities down 26% if I remember correctly.

但如果根據市場數據來看，如果我沒記錯的話，1月的費用和活動金額較上月下降了26％。

Yes, it came in, the final number came in.

是的，進來了，最終的數字進來了。

Yes, sorry, Piers, I got your question, it's the fee pool, is down around 20%, 21% for January.

是的，抱歉，皮爾斯，我明白你的問題了，費用池在 1 月下降了約 20% 到 21%。

So in any case, a two handle in front, so that's industry and not UBS, just to be clear.

因此，無論如何，前面有兩個把手，這意味著行業，而不是瑞銀，只是為了清楚起見。

So there are no more questions. So thank you for calling in and for your questions. So I'll -- we'll touch base next quarter. Thank you.

因此沒有其他問題了。感謝您的來電和提問。所以我會—我們將在下個季度進行聯繫。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast and Q&A session for analysts and investors is over.

女士們、先生們，面向分析師和投資者的網路直播和問答環節已經結束。

You may disconnect your lines.

您可以斷開您的線路。

We will now take a short break and continue with media Q&A session at 11:30 CET.

我們現在將稍事休息，並於歐洲中部時間 11:30 繼續媒體問答環節。