UBS Group AG (UBS) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter earnings call with the media. We're joined by Sergio Ermotti, our CEO; and Todd Tuckner, our CFO, and we're going to open it up for questions. Good morning. Owen, we'll start with you.

大家，早安。歡迎參加我們與媒體舉行的第三季財報電話會議。我們的執行長 Sergio Ermotti 也加入了我們；還有我們的財務長托德·塔克納（Todd Tuckner），我們將開放提問。早安.歐文，我們就從你開始。

Just a quick one on headcount numbers. If you could just provide a bit more clarity on what we have here because I think you've indicated 13,000 job cuts or head reduction so far this year with 4,000 in Q3. Now if you go back to -- on a pro forma basis, I think total headcount would have been about just over 120,000 at the start of the year, down to about 116,000 now. So if you could talk a little bit about where those jobs are coming from? Are a lot of those kind of part-time workers, contractors, what parts of the business they're coming from and what we should be expecting into the new year?

簡單介紹一下員工人數。您能否更清楚地說明我們目前的情況，因為我認為您已經表示今年到目前為止已裁員 13,000 人，其中第三季度裁員 4,000 人。現在，如果你回到預計的基礎上，我認為年初的總員工人數將略高於 120,000 人，現在已降至約 116,000 人。那麼您能否談談這些工作的來源呢？有很多這樣的兼職工人、承包商嗎？他們來自企業的哪些部分？我們對新的一年應該有什麼期望？

Thanks for the question, Owen. Yes, the headcount numbers we disclosed earlier today are off a combined pro forma workforce at the end of 2022. So what we did was it's the internal headcount, but it also includes staff that we manage, but are considered to be external staff. So typically outsourced or contracted staff that are critical to what we do. And by and large, work full time, even if they're not formalistically employees, they're still critical to the overall workforce. So the numbers that we were working off is around 130,000 at present, so that's the 9% decrease that I mentioned as opposed to the internal FTE number that's disclosed in our Q3 report.

謝謝你的提問，歐文。是的，我們今天早些時候披露的員工人數不包括 2022 年底的預計員工總數。因此，我們所做的是內部員工人數，但它也包括我們管理的員工，但被視為外部員工。因此，通常是對我們的工作至關重要的外包或合約員工。總的來說，全職工作，即使他們不是正式員工，他們對整個勞動力仍然至關重要。因此，我們目前正在計算的數字約為 13 萬人，這就是我提到的 9% 的下降，而不是我們第三季報告中揭露的內部 FTE 數字。

Great. And can you give us an indication of how much of the total headcount reduction has been done so far and where you are in terms of that time line?

偉大的。您能否告訴我們，到目前為止，總人數減少了多少，以及您在該時間線的進展？

No, we're -- this is -- as I commented, one, we're not managing by headcount reduction. That's for sure. Sergio and I thought it was useful just to give an indication of just in terms of what has happened from actions so far year-to-date and just thought that it's a useful metric. It's not one that we're going to continue to update, although you'll be able to see it once we expand our disclosure to include total headcount the way I've described it earlier, which we expect to do in future quarters, you can track it yourself, but it's not something we're going to particularly call out. And for sure, it's not how we're managing our integration cost savings.

不，我們——這是——正如我所說，第一，我們沒有透過裁員來管理。這是肯定的。塞爾吉奧和我認為，僅根據今年迄今為止的行動所發生的情況給出指示就很有用，並且認為這是一個有用的指標。我們不會繼續更新，儘管一旦我們按照我之前描述的方式擴大披露範圍以包括總人數，您就可以看到它，我們預計在未來幾個季度會這樣做，您可以自己跟踪，但這不是我們要特別指出的。當然，這不是我們管理整合成本節省的方式。

Our next question, go ahead (inaudible).

我們的下一個問題，請繼續（聽不清楚）。

Yes, just following the question from the colleague from (inaudible) from this 13,000 headcount reduction since -- yes, at the beginning of the year, which part of that is layoff and which part is yes, natural attribution that people have left the bank? First question.

是的，就在（聽不清楚）同事提出的問題之後，自年初以來，裁員 13,000 人，其中哪一部分是裁員，哪一部分是，人們離開銀行的自然原因？第一個問題。

Second question, if I may, completely different topic. In Europe, Mr. René Benko high-rated real estate financier has big financial problems, and there are people running around looking which bank might be affected. Do you have a significant risk regarding Mr. Benko's Signa Group? Is it something that causes your headaches?

第二個問題，如果可以的話，完全不同的話題。在歐洲，高評價的房地產金融家雷內·本科先生面臨嚴重的財務問題，人們四處尋找哪家銀行可能會受到影響。 Benko 先生的 Signa 集團是否有重大風險？是不是有什麼東西讓你頭痛？

On the headcount reduction, it comes from a mix. I mean, we're not disclosing whether they're actions taken by employees or actions taken by us, but the 13,000 are total headcount that are no longer on the roles or going off the roles and have been notified as of the end of 3Q, but it's a mix of employees that, of course, we would have otherwise liked to keep some who have left on their own and also actions that we have taken.

在裁員方面，裁員是混合因素。我的意思是，我們不會透露它們是員工採取的行動還是我們採取的行動，但這 13,000 人是不再任職或離職的總人數，並已於第三季度末收到通知，但這是一個混合的員工，當然，我們本來希望保留一些自己離開的人，以及我們已經採取的行動。

In respect of your second question, as usual, we do not comment on client or potential client matters, but if you are interested about my health, I have no headaches.

關於你的第二個問題，像往常一樣，我們不會評論客戶或潛在客戶的問題，但如果你對我的健康感興趣，我不會頭痛。

The next question is from Hanna Ziady from CNN.

下一個問題來自 CNN 的 Hanna Ziady。

I was just wondering if you can give any indication of what you think the integration-related expenses might look like in the coming quarters? Are they going to fall quite drastically from that $2 billion figure? And then just a question, Sergio, on -- since we last spoke, are things at [speak] now that you know more, I guess, in the last month, are they looking better or worse than you expected?

我只是想知道您是否可以透露您認為未來幾季與整合相關的費用可能會是什麼樣子？與 20 億美元的數字相比，它們會大幅下降嗎？然後只是一個問題，塞爾吉奧，自從我們上次交談以來，現在你知道的更多了，我想，在上個月，事情看起來比你預期的更好還是更糟？

On the integration-related expenses, the $2 billion. I wouldn't draw any conclusions around that in terms of extrapolation or annualization or any of that. Sergio and I will come back in February with our strategy update and offer more specificity around what we see, the integration-related expense trajectory to be where it lands and even some guidance over the time line. But I wouldn't make any -- or take any inference from the number as of 3Q in large part because those expenses, one, they don't behave linear -- linearly in any event. And often, we see opportunities to accelerate savings. As I said, we -- that's what drives some of the integration-related provisions and associated costs. So I wouldn't take anything from that, but wait until we come back with guidance, how we see the overall cost playing out and the trajectory of it next February.

與整合相關的費用為20億美元。我不會就外推法或年化法或任何其他方面得出任何結論。 Sergio 和我將在二月回來更新我們的策略，並就我們所看到的內容、與整合相關的費用軌跡、甚至在時間線上提供一些指導提供更多具體資訊。但我不會做任何事情——或者從第三季的數字中做出任何推斷，很大程度上是因為這些費用，第一，它們的表現不是線性的——無論如何都是線性的。我們常常看到加速儲蓄的機會。正如我所說，我們——這就是推動一些與整合相關的規定和相關成本的原因。所以我不會從中得到任何東西，而是等到我們回來提供指導，我們如何看待整體成本的發揮以及明年二月的軌跡。

The next question is from...

下一個問題來自...

We are missing -- Sorry, I have to -- yes, I think that there is a second question to the answer on Credit Suisse better or not? I think it's pretty much in line with what we thought. I have to say that's coming from the outside, probably more on in general less positive than I thought. Let me put it that way. I think that it's having to go through this massive restructuring some things that is close beyond what I thought would be necessary. Having said that, I'm still confident that the outcome will be good. That's the reason you see this massive cost reduction and provisions we took in Q3 in terms of restructuring charges and the one that we do also expect for the Q4 and in the early part of 2024. So Credit Suisse is structurally loss-making. So it's -- and it's -- that goes a little bit beyond what I got.

我們缺少——抱歉，我必須——是的，我認為瑞士信貸的答案還有第二個問題更好還是更好？我認為這與我們的想法非常一致。我不得不說，這是來自外部的，可能總體上沒有我想像的那麼積極。讓我這樣說吧。我認為它必須經歷這次大規模的重組，有些事情遠遠超出了我認為必要的範圍。話雖如此，我仍然相信結果會是好的。這就是為什麼你會看到我們在第三季度在重組費用方面大幅削減成本和撥備，以及我們預計第四季度和 2024 年初的撥備。因此，瑞士信貸在結構上處於虧損狀態。所以它——而且確實——有點超出了我所得到的。

The next question is from Christian (inaudible) from Blake.

下一個問題來自布萊克的克里斯蒂安（聽不清楚）。

Many people, mainly in Switzerland are leaving Credit Suisse voluntarily. How dangerous is it that UBS or Credit Suisse is losing the wrong people? And what are you doing to keep the right people also mainly in Switzerland?

許多人（主要是瑞士人）自願離開瑞信。瑞銀或瑞士信貸失去錯誤的人才有多危險？您正在採取哪些措施來將合適的人才主要留在瑞士？

Yes. Thanks for the question. I think that, of course, when you have such a major integration, you have people going. I think that it goes without saying that we may have lost also some people that we would have preferred to keep. But -- in many other cases, I have to say that it's -- we were, if not happy, glad to see that some of our former colleagues found better opportunities because we can't keep everybody. Particularly in managerial positions, we have to make clear choices. We need to achieve massive cost savings.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我認為，當然，當你進行如此重大的整合時，就會有人參與。我認為，不言而喻，我們可能也失去了一些我們寧願保留的人。但是，在許多其他情況下，我必須說，我們即使不高興，也很高興看到我們的一些前同事找到了更好的機會，因為我們無法留住所有人。尤其是在管理職位上，我們必須做出明確的選擇。我們需要大幅節省成本。

As I just mentioned, Credit Suisse was structurally -- is structurally loss-making, and we need to take actions. I'm totally convinced that we have plenty of good talents in the organization. coming both from UBS and from Credit Suisse, and I'm absolutely not concerned about our ability to retain and even attract people. So if I look at across the board, we are even able to attract good people into the new UBS. So I don't think it's a factor. It's not that we want to be complacent about this matter, but it's a reality.

正如我剛才提到的，瑞士信貸在結構上正在虧損，我們需要採取行動。我完全相信我們的組織中有很多優秀的人才。來自瑞銀和瑞士信貸，我絕對不擔心我們留住甚至吸引人才的能力。因此，如果我全面考慮，我們甚至能夠吸引優秀人才加入新的瑞銀。所以我認為這不是一個因素。我們並不是想在這件事上沾沾自喜，但這就是現實。

And actually, if I look also what I mentioned during the analyst call, there is a lot of talk about people leaving, but at the end of the day, what matters is how many assets stays with UBS, right? And it's quite important to see that the people that are leaving have hard time to take assets with them. So it's -- this is what we have to continue to focus is to demonstrate to our clients and also to our colleagues in the bank that this is a winning bank and it's a place to be in order to foster your career, but also to give the best service to our clients.

事實上，如果我再看看我在分析師電話會議中提到的內容，就會發現有很多關於人們離開的討論，但歸根結底，重要的是有多少資產留在瑞銀，對吧？重要的是要看到離開的人很難帶走資產。所以，我們必須繼續關注的就是向我們的客戶和銀行同事證明，這是一家成功的銀行，是一個培養你職業生涯的地方，也是一個給予你機會的地方。為我們的客戶提供最好的服務。

The next question is from (inaudible).

下一個問題來自（聽不清楚）。

I also have a follow-up on the headcount issue. In August, you said that in Switzerland, you will let go 3,000 people. I would like to know how many of those have already been terminated? And did the timeline -- is nothing changed to the timeline? And also or differently asked how many of the 4,000 in the third quarter and the 13,000 this year, the reduction headcount, how many of those are in Switzerland?

我還有關於人數問題的後續行動。 8月，您說在瑞士將解僱3000人。我想知道其中有多少已經被終止？時間線有沒有發生任何改變？還或以不同的方式問，第三季的 4,000 名員工和今年的 13,000 名員工中，有多少人在瑞士？

So I think nothing has changed in terms of the 3,000. As you remember, 1,000 were related to the Swiss Bank merger. And we say that nothing will happen until the end of 2024, early part of 2025. In respect of the other 2,000 that are more into the rest of the group. For sure, we have some of these redundancies that may have happened already in Q3. We don't expect the major part of it to really happen before the 2024 -- the mid of 2024 because they are also very dependent on the various integration projects.

所以我認為 3000 人沒有任何變化。如您所知，有 1,000 起與瑞士銀行合併有關。我們說，直到 2024 年底、2025 年初，什麼都不會發生。對於另外 2,000 名更關注該群體其他成員的人來說。當然，我們可能已經在第三季進行了一些裁員。我們預計它的主要部分不會在 2024 年——2024 年中期之前真正發生，因為它們也非常依賴各種整合專案。

But as Todd mentioned in the -- we are not going to go out and give you every quarter disclosure. I don't think it's a relevant topic, right? So we are managing our communication. We affected people internally. This is not something that we want to manage in the public. We are managing our cost, and we have a lot of respect for the people affected. And as much as people like to write those kinds of stories, this is not -- you're not going to get a lot of input from us on that.

但正如托德在報告中提到的——我們不會每個季度都向您披露資訊。我認為這不是一個相關的話題，對吧？所以我們正在管理我們的溝通。我們影響了內部的人們。這不是我們想要在公共場合管理的事情。我們正在管理成本，並且非常尊重受影響的人。儘管人們很喜歡寫這類故事，但這不是——你不會從我們那裡得到很多關於這方面的意見。

The next question is from Daniel (inaudible).

下一個問題來自丹尼爾（聽不清楚）。

I'm curious a bit to hear from you how do you feel the client sentiment is in the Middle East. That's where the Credit Suisse major shareholders have lost a lot of money as well as the bond investors. I think in the Middle East, in certain places in the Middle East, Swiss banking has taken quite a tough reputational bang. And I'm curious to here what you observed from that?

我很想聽聽您的意見，您對中東客戶的情緒有何看法。這就是瑞士信貸大股東以及債券投資者損失慘重的地方。我認為在中東，在中東的某些地方，瑞士銀行業的聲譽受到了相當大的打擊。我很好奇你從中觀察到了什麼？

Thank you. I have to say that we haven't really noticed any particular aversion or issues with clients in the Middle East. As we mentioned, if you look at net inflows, the vast majority was coming from APAC and Europe and Middle East. And Middle East was a big part of it as well. So we are not really seen as being affected by those dynamics you just mentioned. So honestly, I don't see that happening.

謝謝。我必須說，我們還沒有真正注意到中東客戶有任何特別的厭惡或問題。正如我們所提到的，如果你看看淨流入，你會發現絕大多數來自亞太地區、歐洲和中東。中東也是其中的重要組成部分。因此，我們並沒有真正被視為受到您剛才提到的這些動態的影響。老實說，我不認為這種情況會發生。

But do you think this is surprising? I find it surprising. Do you think to -- what is your reaction to that?

但你認為這令人驚訝嗎？我覺得很奇怪。你認為──你對此有何反應？

But I'm not so sure that it's only the people affected by the losses you mentioned and maybe the disappointments are not just related to the Middle East, right? So probably there is a broader sense of stakeholders. And I'm not surprised that also it's very important that as UBS, basically, we are not the one that are made responsible for what happened. So I mean that's the reality. So we are seen as part of the solution, not part of the problem. So in a sense it's that...

但我不太確定這只是受你提到的損失影響的人們，也許失望不僅僅與中東有關，對吧？因此，利害關係人可能具有更廣泛的意義。我並不感到驚訝，因為身為瑞銀集團，我們基本上不需要對所發生的事情負責，這一點也非常重要。所以我的意思是這就是現實。因此，我們被視為解決方案的一部分，而不是問題的一部分。所以從某種意義上來說，這就是...

May I ask one quick extra question. You were talking about the structural loss-making Credit Suisse. When you talk about structural loss making, then are you talking about too high -- too much of cut in relation to the revenues? Or what should I imagine by structural loss-making?

我可以再問一個簡單的問題嗎？你剛才談論的是結構性虧損的瑞士信貸銀行。當您談論結構性虧損時，您是否在談論相對於收入而言過高的削減？還是我應該想想像結構性虧損是什麼？

That's a pretty good assumption, yes. I think that if you look at over the last couple of years, basically the cost base of Credit Suisse was the one of global systemic financial institutions, pretty extensive, very complicated. But over the years, there has been a remarkable deterioration of the revenue line. And I would say also in the last 12, 18 months, the outflows, if you go back into a couple of years ago, I mean 20 -- starting from I would say, summer 2020 until now, if I remember correctly, now don't quote me on that, but I would say they probably lost around $500 billion of assets.

是的，這是一個很好的假設。我認為，如果你看看過去幾年，基本上瑞士信貸的成本基礎是全球系統性金融機構之一，相當廣泛，非常複雜。但多年來，收入線顯著惡化。我想說的是，在過去的12、18 個月裡，資金外流，如果你回到幾年前，我的意思是20——從我會說，2020 年夏天到現在，如果我沒記錯的話，現在不要不要引用我的話，但我想說他們可能損失了大約 5000 億美元的資產。

So that's a big issue when you put that kind of pressure on the revenue line in addition to the losses incurred or in other parts of the business. So it's the fact that you have a deterioration of the topline and the stickiness of cost is there. And it's very difficult to take down cost when you have such a complex organization. You can't -- you are not allowed to go below certain cost levels without creating operational risks and regulatory risks and other consequences. So it's has become very structural. So that's the reason we need to immediately address the elimination of 2 G-SIFIs, 2 banks of this size and complexity cannot be managed alongside. We need to integrate as quick as possible. And this is what we are doing right now.

因此，當除了產生的損失或業務的其他部分之外，您還對收入線施加這種壓力時，這就是一個大問題。事實上，你的收入正在惡化，而且成本的黏性也存在。當組織如此複雜時，要降低成本非常困難。你不能——你不能低於一定的成本水平，否則就會造成營運風險、監管風險和其他後果。所以它變得非常結構化。因此，這就是我們需要立即解決消除 2 個 G-SIFI 問題的原因，兩家如此規模和複雜性的銀行無法同時管理。我們需要盡快整合。這就是我們現在正在做的事情。

The next question is from (inaudible) from Reuters.

下一個問題來自路透社（聽不清楚）。

I've got two questions. Firstly, what steps is UBS taking at the moment to make deposits stickier? And the second question is, you've mentioned you've been able to keep a lot of the assets even though relationship managers have gone. To what extent is it likely you'll be able to keep these in the longer term as UBS and Credit Suisse are currently paying at least in the Swiss market, above market rates on deposits?

我有兩個問題。首先，瑞銀目前正在採取哪些措施來提高存款黏性？第二個問題是，您提到即使客戶關係經理離開了，您仍然能夠保留很多資產。由於瑞銀和瑞士信貸目前至少在瑞士市場支付高於市場的存款利率，您在多大程度上能夠長期保留這些資金？

I'll let -- I don't know where you get that notion that we are paying more than the market for deposit. This is. It's definitely not the case. I think that we are paying competitively, but we are definitely not the best payer across the board for deposits. So we are not winning back deposits or net new money by overpricing or doing things that are not economically sustainable. So that one, I can tell you very, very clear. In respect of you want to take...

我會讓——我不知道你從哪裡得到這樣的想法：我們支付的存款高於市場價格。這是。絕對不是這樣的。我認為我們的支付方式具有競爭力，但我們絕對不是全面且最好的存款支付者。因此，我們不會透過定價過高或做一些經濟上不可持續的事情來贏回存款或淨新資金。所以這一點我可以非常非常清楚地告訴你。就你想採取的...

Yes, sure. On the making deposits stickier, I mean, the notion is interesting. Clients will rotate into fixed term preferred deposits. And in that sense, they're stickier over a term. I mean, in general, the relationships are developed over many, many years and last many, many years, we hope decades and generations. So in that sense, but deposits as an instrument, generally speaking, unless they're termed out, as they say, they are not, by definition, stickier, but we expect the relationship is.

是的，當然。我的意思是，關於提高存款黏性，這個概念很有趣。客戶將轉存為定期優先存款。從這個意義上說，它們在一個術語中更具黏性。我的意思是，總的來說，這種關係是經過很多很多年發展起來的，我們希望持續很多很多年，我們希望幾十年甚至幾代人。因此，從這個意義上說，但存款作為一種工具，一般來說，除非它們被稱為“粘性”，否則根據定義，它們並不具有粘性，但我們預計這種關係是粘性的。

The next question is from (inaudible) from Bloomberg News.

下一個問題來自彭博新聞（聽不清楚）。

I have 2 questions. One is on the theme of sort of retention payments. You mentioned on the analyst call that there would be some about 500 or so clients either who've left over the last year. And then you've also made some retention payments for key staff. And I know the retention payments are probably for the whole bank, but have you seen some of these exit slow down? Have you been able to retain the talent you want? And are you continuing to [uptake] these actions? Or do you see that sort of tapering off? And then second question is just if you're able to elaborate a little bit more on the geopolitical outlook and how that's affecting client activity, particularly in the rising rate environment?

我有 2 個問題。其中一個主題是保留金。您在分析師電話會議上提到，去年將有大約 500 名左右的客戶離開。然後你也為關鍵員工支付了一些留任金。我知道保留金可能是針對整個銀行的，但是您是否看到其中一些退出速度放緩？你能留住你想要的人才嗎？您是否繼續[採取]這些行動？或者你看到這種情況逐漸減弱嗎？第二個問題是，您是否能夠詳細說明地緣政治前景以及它如何影響客戶活動，特別是在利率上升的環境下？

On the -- I mean, on the retention payments, just to be clear, I mean the example Sergio gave was on advisers that left and we have retained the assets largely speaking, a very -- the large majority of the assets that those advisers were managing at UBS have been retained. So that's just to us, a testament to the win-back and retention initiatives that we're driving across the business.

關於——我的意思是，關於保留付款，為了明確起見，我的意思是塞爾吉奧給出的例子是關於離開的顧問，我們基本上保留了這些資產，這些顧問的大部分資產瑞銀集團的管理人員已被保留。因此，這對我們來說是對我們在整個業務中推動的贏回和保留計劃的證明。

In terms of the actual retention payments themselves, those done selectively over the course of 2023 to retain key client-facing personnel, but also key middle and back office personnel, in particular, to ensure operational stability as we are still running 2 separate large G-SIFIs. So those retention payments are made in that respect. We do have -- that's worked. We have been able to achieve operational stability as well. And now obviously, we're planning on further cost reductions as we highlighted earlier, both in NCL but also in achieving cost synergies across our core franchises.

就實際保留付款本身而言，在 2023 年期間有選擇地保留關鍵的面向客戶的人員，以及關鍵的中後台人員，特別是為了確保運營穩定性，因為我們仍在運行 2 個獨立的大型 G - SIFI。因此，這些保留金是在這方面支付的。我們確實有——這很有效。我們也能夠實現營運穩定性。現在顯然，正如我們之前強調的那樣，我們正計劃進一步降低成本，無論是在 NCL 還是在我們的核心特許經營中實現成本協同效應。

Do you expect to have -- to be continuing those retention payments? Or you're largely done sort of keeping the people you wanted to keep in terms of the sort of key people for operational stability?

您是否期望繼續支付保留金？或者說，您已經基本上保留了您想要保留的人員，即穩定營運的關鍵人員？

I would say, on operational stability in the middle and back office. This was a 2023 post-close or post news of the acquisition dynamic that I think we've now largely managed. Your question on the geopolitical front and the outlook, I mean, as we said, and I even commented I think there were from some of the central banks less hawkish tones that we saw, including further rate hike pauses that gave rise just over the last several days to bond and equity rallies. But in general, and that's why I said we see it a bit of a clouded picture because we also know that the conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, in particular, the most recent developing one has also taken some people off the -- to the sidelines a bit with a bit more of a risk-off sentiment.

我想說的是，關於中後台的營運穩定性。這是 2023 年交易結束後或收購動態後的新聞，我認為我們現在基本上已經控制住了。你關於地緣政治方面和前景的問題，我的意思是，正如我們所說，我甚至評論說，我認為一些央行的語氣不像我們看到的那樣強硬，包括在過去幾年中進一步暫停加息債券和股票反彈還有幾天。但總的來說，這就是為什麼我說我們看到的情況有點陰暗，因為我們也知道中東和東歐的衝突，特別是最近發生的衝突也讓一些人失去了——帶著更多的避險情緒而持觀望態度。

So it makes the outlook a bit clouded from our perspective. There are some positives, but there's clearly some headwinds that can impact on our transactional activity. I also guided on NII in the fourth quarter just given the fact that clients are rotating and sorting their cash holdings into higher-yielding deposits, and that has an adverse impact on our NIM, and we see that hitting through still in the fourth quarter a bit. So those are some of the headwinds that we see invited by the environment as well as the geopolitical landscape.

因此，從我們的角度來看，前景變得有些陰暗。有一些正面因素，但顯然也存在一些可能影響我們交易活動的不利因素。 I also guided on NII in the fourth quarter just given the fact that clients are rotating and sorting their cash holdings into higher-yielding deposits, and that has an adverse impact on our NIM, and we see that hitting through still in the fourth quarter a位元.這些是我們所看到的環境和地緣政治格局帶來的一些不利因素。

The next question is from (inaudible).

下一個問題來自（聽不清楚）。

Just a single question -- 2 questions regarding the SMB side deposit. The first one is, how much is the UBS impacted by the new pricing adjustment of the remuneration and do you plan to reduce your site deposits?

只有一個問題 - 2 個有關 SMB 側存款的問題。第一個是，瑞銀受新的薪資定價調整影響有多大，你們是否打算減少你們的網站押金？

Thanks, Pascal, for the question. I highlighted in my remarks that we think the annualized -- expect the annualized impact from the change in the minimum reserve requirements and the site deposit remuneration policy in the SMB, impacts the bank by on an annualized basis, adversely $80 million roughly 2/3 P&C, 1/3 GWM, but we don't expect that will have any impact on deposit pricing.

謝謝帕斯卡的提問。我在發言中強調，我們認為，預計最低準備金要求和中小企業現場存款報酬政策變化的年化影響，對銀行的年化影響約為 8000 萬美元，約 2/3 P&C，1/3 GWM，但我們預計這不會對存款定價產生任何影響。

The next question is from Thomas (inaudible).

下一個問題來自湯瑪斯（聽不清楚）。

You said that you reached a saving of costs of $3 billion one quarter before -- one quarter earlier than expected. How much saving of costs are possible in the fourth quarter and in 2024? And on the second question, there are some experts who forecast the second wave of escape of Credit Suisse clients. Do you see that risk? Are you prepared for that? And do you think that the loss of Credit Suisse client relationship managers will be reduced or even stopped the next quarters?

您說您在一個季度前就實現了 30 億美元的成本節省，比預期提前了四分之一。第四季和 2024 年可以節省多少成本？關於第二個問題，有專家預測了瑞信第二波客戶出逃。你看到這個風險了嗎？你準備好了嗎？您認為瑞信客戶關係經理的流失在接下來的幾季會減少甚至停止嗎？

On the first question, Thomas, in terms of $3 billion, yes, we reached that a bit ahead of schedule. And as we said, we expect further progress in the fourth quarter. We see a number of actions that we're implementing and executing hit through, and we will come back in February with a view on what 2024 looks like with more specificity.

關於第一個問題，托馬斯，就 30 億美元而言，是的，我們提前了一點。正如我們所說，我們預計第四季將取得進一步進展。我們看到我們正在實施和執行的許多行動都取得了成功，我們將在 2 月回來，更具體地了解 2024 年的情況。

Yes. On -- I guess, on the second question, I don't know, because I hear so many experts nowadays that you need to explain me exactly what your -- what do you mean. But as I said, we are pretty confident that we have the people we want, and we are pretty confident that we can retain the vast majority of the assets of the clients. So as far as we are concerned, I don't see this as being an issue. But honestly, I haven't seen those experts remarks. So maybe we can take it offline.

是的。關於──我想，關於第二個問題，我不知道，因為我現在聽到很多專家的聲音，你需要準確地向我解釋你的──你的意思是什麼。但正如我所說，我們非常有信心擁有我們想要的人才，並且非常有信心保留客戶的絕大多數資產。因此，就我們而言，我不認為這是一個問題。但說實話，我還沒看到那些專家的言論。所以也許我們可以讓它離線。

The next question is from Christopher Spink from IFR.

下一個問題來自 IFR 的 Christopher Spink。

I just had a couple of questions. Firstly, I know that you said that the underlying state of the Investment Bank is that it's loss-making at the moment. Can we expect kind of quite significant changes outlined in February on what the strategy is for the Investment Bank? And secondly, on funding, do you think there will be some positive implications for the merger of the legal entities? I mean, it seems to be -- you've got a lot of issuance from Holdco at the moment. I mean, will you be able to do more operational company issuance once this merger has gone ahead? How do you see things on the funding side over the next year?

我只是有幾個問題。首先，我知道你說投資銀行目前的基本狀況是虧損。我們是否可以預期二月份概述的投資銀行策略會出現相當重大的變化？其次，在資金方面，您認為這會對法人實體的合併產生一些正面影響嗎？我的意思是，目前 Holdco 似乎發行了大量債券。我的意思是，一旦合併進行，你們能夠發行更多的營運公司嗎？您如何看待明年融資方面的狀況？

So on the first one, in terms of the IB, I mean, we guided a bit on 4Q, and we also said we expect revenues to ramp up in 2024 as we complete the onboarding of our colleagues in terms of them coming on to our platforms and systems as well as their positions and expect significantly greater revenues as a result of that. As far as strategy of the IB, nothing has changed. And so we don't anticipate when we come back in February to talk about our plan in detail that we will at all be highlighting any strategic changes in the IB.

因此，就第一個而言，就IB 而言，我們在第四季度進行了一些指導，我們也表示，隨著我們完成同事的入職，他們將加入我們的團隊，我們預計收入將在2024 年增加。平台和系統及其地位，預計收入將因此大幅增加。就IB的策略而言，沒有任何改變。因此，我們預計當我們二月回來詳細討論我們的計劃時，我們根本不會強調 IB 的任何策略變化。

In terms of funding and whether the legal entity mergers would invite opportunities to issue more OpCo. No, I think our funding plan that we're developing at the moment will -- is looking at all manner of Holdco, OpCo and other issuance opportunities for us, diversifying our sources of funding. I think right now we have every -- we have all the optionality to be issuing OpCo out of our current structure and just merging legal entities from where I sit now, would not enhance, in my view, the ability to issue additional OpCo.

在資金方面以及法人實體合併是否會帶來發行更多 OpCo 的機會。不，我認為我們目前正在製定的融資計劃將著眼於各種方式的 Holdco、OpCo 和其他發行機會，使我們的資金來源多樣化。我認為現在我們擁有一切——我們擁有在當前結構之外發行 OpCo 的所有選擇權，並且只是合併我現在所在位置的法人實體，在我看來，不會增強發行更多 OpCo 的能力。

Next question is from Lukas Haessig from Inside Blog.

下一個問題來自 Inside Blog 的 Lukas Haessig。

I have 2 questions. First one, regarding the top management, there have been many changes at your daughter, new daughter Credit Suisse. Is the Board -- Executive Board of the Credit Suisse daughter now stable? And does the same for the UBS Executive Board?

我有 2 個問題。第一，關於高階主管，您的女兒，新女兒瑞信，發生了很多變化。瑞信女兒公司的董事會－執行董事會現在穩定嗎？瑞銀執行董事會也是如此嗎？

And the second question is in Global Wealth Management. There is the saying 1 plus 1 doesn't add up to 2 in that market. And we see now the $3 billion net money at Credit Suisse. Does that now be an indication that it might be becoming better now that you are aim to retain and win back Credit Suisse's assets, current assets?

第二個問題是全球財富管理。市面上有句話：1 加 1 不等於 2。我們現在看到瑞士信貸銀行的淨資金為 30 億美元。現在這是否表明，既然您的目標是保留並贏回瑞士信貸的資產（流動資產），情況可能會變得更好？

I think that now we -- in respect of the Credit Suisse stand-alone legal entity executive. Of course, we made the necessary changes to reflect the new governance of running as a combined group and also by the integration of each division of Credit Suisse into the divisions of UBS, therefore, we have a structure that I think it's the right one to go through the regulatory requirements of managing a legal entity that is necessary until we do the closing of the merger of the 2 parent companies that's what -- I don't anticipate any major changes between now and then. And then, of course, once we go through the mergers, we will have only one Executive Board. So -- and I don't really expect any major changes in that sense. So you want to take...

我認為現在我們──就瑞信獨立法人實體的執行官而言。當然，我們做出了必要的改變，以反映作為一個聯合集團運營的新治理，並將瑞士信貸的每個部門整合到瑞銀的各個部門，因此，我們有一個我認為是正確的結構。完成管理法人實體的監管要求，這是必要的，直到我們完成兩家母公司的合併案——我預計從現在到那時不會有任何重大變化。當然，一旦我們完成合併，我們將只剩下一個執行董事會。所以——我真的不希望在這個意義上發生任何重大變化。所以你想帶...

Yes. Lukas, on your GWM, we agree with you that 1 plus 1 doesn't equal 2 because we think 1 plus 1 is greater than 2 in the wealth business. And as we said earlier, the Credit Suisse wealth side, net new money inflows to us is a sign that we have clearly stabilized the business. And that's why it was important to us that while we're not going to continue to disclose Credit Suisse from UBS separately just because we don't manage the business that way. We thought it was quite helpful to show as evidence that the business is quite stable and the fact that Credit Suisse was able on the wealth side to generate net new assets after 18 months of massive outflows, we think is a sign of the stability that we brought to the franchise.

是的。 Lukas，在您的 GWM 中，我們同意您的觀點，即 1 加 1 不等於 2，因為我們認為在財富行業中 1 加 1 大於 2。正如我們之前所說，瑞信財富方面，新資金淨流入我們是一個跡象，表明我們已經明顯穩定了業務。這就是為什麼對我們來說很重要的一點是，我們不會因為我們不以這種方式管理業務，就繼續單獨披露瑞士信貸與瑞銀的關係。我們認為，證明業務相當穩定的證據是非常有幫助的，而且瑞士信貸在經歷了 18 個月的大規模資金外流後能夠在財富方面產生淨新資產，我們認為這是我們穩定的標誌。帶到特許經營權。

Thank you all for joining us. That concludes our media Q&A. I hope you have a good rest of the day. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact our media relations team. Thank you very much.

感謝大家加入我們。我們的媒體問答到此結束。我希望你今天休息得很好。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡我們的媒體關係團隊。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, the media Q&A session is over. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，媒體問答環節結束了。現在您可以斷開線路。