UBS Group AG (UBS) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to the fourth quarter 2022 results presentation. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，早上好。歡迎來到 2022 年第四季度業績發布會。不得為出版或廣播錄製會議。 （操作員說明）

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Sarah Mackey, UBS Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.

此時，我很高興將工作交給 UBS 投資者關係部門的 Sarah Mackey。請繼續，女士。

Good morning and welcome, everyone.

大家早上好，歡迎大家。

Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement slide at the back of today's results presentation. Please also refer to the risk factors in our annual report together with disclosures in our SEC filings.

在我們開始之前，我想提請您注意今天結果演示文稿後面的警示性聲明幻燈片。另請參閱我們年度報告中的風險因素以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的披露。

On Slide 2, you can see our agenda for today. It's now my pleasure to hand over to Ralph Hamers, Group CEO.

在幻燈片 2 上，您可以看到我們今天的議程。現在我很高興將工作交給集團首席執行官拉爾夫·哈默斯。

Thank you, Sarah. Good morning, everyone. Great that you're all on the call. I will take you through the results like I used to. In 2020, we delivered for our clients and shareholders, and that was in challenging market conditions. We provided sound advice to our clients, partnered with them to help achieve their goals.

謝謝你，莎拉。大家，早安。很高興你們都在通話中。我將像以前一樣帶您查看結果。 2020 年，我們在充滿挑戰的市場條件下為客戶和股東做出了貢獻。我們為客戶提供合理的建議，與他們合作以幫助他們實現目標。

Our strategy and what differentiates UBS is clear. And as shown on this Slide 3 here, we are globally diversified with leading positions across the U.S., Asia Pacific, EMEA and Switzerland. We have outstanding client franchises, and they're unpinned by a balance sheet for all seasons, a strong risk culture and an intensified focus on costs. As you know, our business model is highly capital generative, supports both strong returns on capital as well as return of capital.

我們的戰略和瑞銀的與眾不同之處是明確的。正如這裡的幻燈片 3 所示，我們在全球範圍內實現多元化，在美國、亞太地區、歐洲、中東和非洲和瑞士處於領先地位。我們擁有傑出的客戶特許經營權，他們不受四季資產負債表、強大的風險文化和對成本的高度關注的束縛。如您所知，我們的商業模式具有很高的資本生成能力，支持強勁的資本回報率和資本回報率。

If I move to Slide 4, you got basically a full year of hard work on one slide. Good financial results in 2020 (sic) [2022] . We achieved our group financial targets for the full year, net profit of $7.6 billion, and our return on CET1 capital was 17%, and our cost-to-income ratio was 72.1%.

如果我轉到幻燈片 4，您基本上可以在一張幻燈片上付出一整年的努力。 2020 年良好的財務業績（原文如此）[2022]。我們實現了全年集團財務目標，淨利潤為 76 億美元，CET1 資本回報率為 17%，成本收入比為 72.1%。

Turning to Slide 5. Throughout 2020 (sic) 2022 , we were a source of strength for our clients, and we relentlessly focused on their needs while delivering for them across our platform. And you see the proof points here laid out across the different areas, invested assets, deposits, loans and the global markets activities. Across our $4 trillion in invested assets, we provided advice at bespoke services, seamless solutions. We helped our clients to reposition their portfolios in a world that was changing quickly, take advantage of longer-term opportunities as well.

轉到幻燈片 5。在整個 2020 (sic) 2022 年，我們一直是客戶的力量源泉，我們不懈地關注他們的需求，同時通過我們的平台為他們提供服務。你會看到這裡的證據點橫跨不同領域、投資資產、存款、貸款和全球市場活動。在我們 4 萬億美元的投資資產中，我們提供定制服務建議和無縫解決方案。我們幫助我們的客戶在瞬息萬變的世界中重新定位他們的投資組合，同時利用長期機會。

Net new fee-generating asset flows were $23 billion for the fourth quarter, representing a growth rate of 8%. This resulted in $60 billion of flows for the full year, which translates to a solid 4% growth rate in the context of a global equity market declines.

第四季度淨新增收費資產流量為 230 億美元，增長率為 8%。這導致全年流入 600 億美元，這意味著在全球股市下跌的背景下實現了 4% 的穩健增長率。

We continue to capture for our clients. We continue to capture our client demand for higher-yielding products through our savings, our certificates of deposits, our money market funds. Money market inflows in Asset Management were $16 billion for the quarter, and 3/4 of that came from GWM clients. And this brought Asset Management total net new money to $25 billion for the year.

我們繼續為我們的客戶捕獲。我們繼續通過儲蓄、存款證和貨幣市場基金來滿足客戶對高收益產品的需求。本季度資產管理的貨幣市場資金流入為 160 億美元，其中 3/4 來自 GWM 客戶。這使資產管理公司今年的淨新資金總額達到 250 億美元。

Net new deposits turned positive in the fourth quarter driven by Switzerland and Asia Pacific. And for the full year, we delivered 17% net interest income growth in Wealth Management and P&C. In the Americas and Switzerland, we delivered positive net new lending in every quarter without relaxing our strict underwriting standards. And this resulted -- this result more than offset the continuing deleverage activity that we see in Asia Pacific.

在瑞士和亞太地區的推動下，第四季度淨新增存款轉正。全年，我們在財富管理和財產險方面實現了 17% 的淨利息收入增長。在美洲和瑞士，我們在沒有放寬嚴格的承銷標準的情況下，每個季度都實現了正淨新增貸款。這導致 - 這一結果足以抵消我們在亞太地區看到的持續去槓桿化活動。

For our institutional clients, 2020 (sic) 2022 was a tale of 2 halves really. The first half of the year was driven by strong equity markets activities with foreign exchange and rates then taking spotlight in the second half. And through a wide range of market conditions, our diversified product mix in Global Markets and our agile way of allocating capital and resources where it needs to go, that allowed us to provide comprehensive services to our clients. Record performance in our equities franchise and second-best FRC performance on record helped offset the impact of industry-wide slowdowns in activity across Global Banking.

對於我們的機構客戶來說，2020 年（原文如此）2022 年真的是一個兩半的故事。上半年受到強勁的股票市場活動的推動，外彙和利率在下半年成為人們關注的焦點。通過廣泛的市場條件、我們在全球市場的多元化產品組合以及我們在需要的地方分配資本和資源的敏捷方式，使我們能夠為客戶提供全面的服務。我們的股票特許經營創紀錄的業績和創紀錄的第二好的 FRC 業績幫助抵消了全球銀行業全行業活動放緩的影響。

As the leading global wealth manager, our diversified footprint empowers us to execute our strategy across regions to drive growth and efficiency. And you see an overview of the regional performance here on Slide 6. The regional picture is very important where that's where the business comes together for our clients.

作為全球領先的財富管理機構，我們多元化的足跡使我們能夠跨地區執行我們的戰略，以推動增長和效率。您可以在幻燈片 6 上看到區域績效的概述。區域圖片非常重要，因為這是我們為客戶提供業務的地方。

Just starting in the Americas, where our clients continue to turn to us for advice and solutions, client demand for our separately managed account offering remains strong with another $4 billion inflows in the fourth quarter. Net new money in SMAs totaled $21 billion for the full year. We also saw continued interest in alternatives, leading to $10 billion in net private market commitments for the year.

從美洲開始，我們的客戶繼續向我們尋求建議和解決方案，客戶對我們單獨管理的賬戶產品的需求依然強勁，第四季度又有 40 億美元的資金流入。全年 SMA 的淨新資金總額為 210 億美元。我們還看到了對替代方案的持續興趣，導致今年淨私人市場承諾達到 100 億美元。

In the U.S., we already have over 20% of the Barron's top 100 private wealth management teams, and we continue to recruit high-quality advisers in the second half of the year to support our industry-leading advisers productivity. Our recruiting efforts also supported $4 billion in net new fee-generating assets added in the fourth quarter and $17 billion for the full year.

在美國，我們已經擁有超過 20% 的《巴倫周刊》前 100 名私人財富管理團隊，我們將在下半年繼續招募高質量的顧問，以支持我們行業領先的顧問生產力。我們的招聘工作還支持了第四季度淨新增收費資產 40 億美元和全年 170 億美元。

Our economists are projecting that '23 will be a challenging year for the U.S. economy as inflation and higher interest rates create headwinds for economic growth. And nevertheless, our priority for the region is to drive organic growth and build on our scale with our core wealth and GFIW clients. We will leverage our Investment Banking and Asset Management capabilities to deliver the whole of UBS to these clients.

我們的經濟學家預測，23 世紀對美國經濟來說將是充滿挑戰的一年，因為通貨膨脹和更高的利率會給經濟增長帶來阻力。儘管如此，我們在該地區的首要任務是推動有機增長，並擴大我們與核心財富和 GFIW 客戶的規模。我們將利用我們的投資銀行和資產管理能力向這些客戶提供整個瑞銀。

We will continue to invest in our digital capabilities to improve client connectivity to our advisers, and we will look to become the primary bank for our core clients by improving our banking capabilities. At the same time, our efforts to simplify processes and invest in infrastructure and controls will be complemented by strategic and tactical actions on cost to support improvements in our cost/income ratio.

我們將繼續投資於我們的數字能力，以改善客戶與我們顧問的聯繫，我們將通過提高我們的銀行業務能力，尋求成為我們核心客戶的主要銀行。與此同時，我們簡化流程和投資基礎設施和控制的努力將得到成本方面的戰略和戰術行動的補充，以支持提高我們的成本/收入比率。

Now moving to our home market, Switzerland. The stability of the economy and our #1 position continues to support a record level of deposit and loan volumes, strong profitability and growth. Net new fee-generating assets flows were $5 billion in the fourth quarter, $9 billion for the full year, and that's a growth rate of 7%. We also saw $8 billion in net new deposits in the fourth quarter and $9 billion for the full year. For '23, our focus in Switzerland is to deliver above-market growth. We will continue to invest in our strategic technology initiatives and support our clients' transition to mobile banking while remaining disciplined on expenses.

現在轉移到我們的本土市場瑞士。經濟的穩定性和我們排名第一的地位繼續支持創紀錄的存貸款量、強勁的盈利能力和增長。第四季度淨新增收費資產流量為 50 億美元，全年為 90 億美元，增長率為 7%。我們還看到第四季度淨新增存款為 80 億美元，全年新增存款為 90 億美元。對於'23，我們在瑞士的重點是實現高於市場的增長。我們將繼續投資於我們的戰略技術計劃，並支持我們的客戶向移動銀行業務的過渡，同時保持對費用的約束。

In EMEA, we maintained our momentum with clients in the fourth quarter as well with $11 billion in net new fee-generating assets for the quarter. We brought in $20 billion for the full year, and that's a 6% growth rate. That's supported by strong flows in the Middle East. In the Investment Bank, we had our best year on record for both revenue and profit before tax, supported by a record in Global Markets and outperformance in Global Banking as well.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們在第四季度保持了與客戶的勢頭，本季度淨新增收費資產達 110 億美元。我們全年收入 200 億美元，增長率為 6%。這得到了中東強勁資金流動的支持。在投資銀行業務方面，我們的收入和稅前利潤都創下了有記錄以來最好的一年，這得益於全球市場創紀錄的業績以及全球銀行業務的出色表現。

Elevated and volatile energy prices continue to have a significant impact on macroeconomic activity, although our economists are becoming more and more optimistic about the downturn being shallow. Our optimized EMEA footprint positions us well in the current macro environment, and this affords us the ability to be focused on targeted growth opportunities across Europe and the Middle East. So a strong year for EMEA.

能源價格高漲和波動繼續對宏觀經濟活動產生重大影響，儘管我們的經濟學家對經濟低迷的程度越來越樂觀。我們優化的 EMEA 足跡使我們在當前的宏觀環境中處於有利地位，這使我們能夠專注於歐洲和中東的目標增長機會。因此，歐洲、中東和非洲地區表現強勁的一年。

And lastly, Asia Pacific, the residual impact of the pandemic and concerns of economic growth consistently weighed on investor sentiment throughout the year. However, our clients' trust in our advice and capability led to 12% growth in net new fee-generating assets for the year. In the IB, we moved up 5 spots to claim the #1 position in equity capital markets for nondomestic banks for the full year. We delivered the best M&A on record. And we were recently named the Best Investment Bank in Asia and Australia by Finance Asia.

最後，在亞太地區，這一流行病的殘餘影響和對經濟增長的擔憂在全年持續打壓投資者情緒。然而，我們的客戶對我們的建議和能力的信任導致今年淨新增收費資產增長了 12%。在 IB 中，我們上升了 5 位，在全年非本地銀行股權資本市場中排名第一。我們實現了有史以來最好的併購。我們最近被 Finance Asia 評為亞洲和澳大利亞最佳投資銀行。

Now the easing of COVID-related restrictions in China has led to a more optimistic outlook for 2023. We believe 5% economic growth is back on the table for China and are accelerating beginning in the next few -- acceleration of the growth beginning in the next few months. While client segment -- sentiment has improved, they are taking a wait-and-see approach so far. We remain well positioned to support our clients, both onshore and offshore, in China and the rest of Asia Pacific as activity resumes.

現在中國放鬆了與 COVID 相關的限制，導致 2023 年的前景更加樂觀。我們認為中國經濟增長 5% 並在未來幾年開始加速增長——增長從 2023 年開始加速接下來的幾個月。雖然客戶群——情緒有所改善，但到目前為止，他們正在採取觀望態度。隨著活動的恢復，我們仍處於有利地位，可以為中國和亞太地區其他地區的在岸和離岸客戶提供支持。

Longer term, we remain focused on executing our strategy to capture growth. In October, we launched WE.UBS, the first digital wealth management platform from a global wealth manager in China. And in Southeast Asia, we are focusing on expanding our GFIW business to serve family offices, entrepreneurs, Asian technology firms to drive growth. And as you can see, technology is key to many of our achievements this year, and next year will be no different. So I'd like to take you through our technology delivery on the next slide.

從長遠來看，我們仍然專注於執行我們的戰略以實現增長。 10月，我們在中國推出首個全球財富管理數字財富管理平台WE.UBS。在東南亞，我們正專注於擴大我們的 GFIW 業務，為家族辦公室、企業家、亞洲科技公司提供服務，以推動增長。正如您所看到的，技術是我們今年許多成就的關鍵，明年也不例外。因此，我想在下一張幻燈片中向您介紹我們的技術交付。

You can see some examples here on Slide 7, how we are investing our $4 billion technology budget to make technology differentiator through simplification, automation and by improving our clients' experience. And this transition also directly contributes to the bottom line with approximately $200 million in cost savings for 2023, and our plan is to continue to reinvest this.

您可以在幻燈片 7 上看到一些示例，了解我們如何投資 40 億美元的技術預算，通過簡化、自動化和改善客戶體驗來打造技術差異化優勢。而這種轉變也直接有助於在 2023 年節省約 2 億美元的成本，我們的計劃是繼續對此進行再投資。

Let me give you some examples of how we're driving this. We now have 18,500 employees operating in Agile. In technology, 68% of these are engineers, and that compares to 55% when we started Agile. So basically, you see a 13% point increase, which is a 20% productivity improvement. And next to the efficiencies and the productivity improvement that this brings, it also delivers a faster delivery of technology change. So quicker time to market of improvements. We've also decommissioned 600 applications in 2022, and we have now 65% of our computing power on the cloud.

讓我舉一些例子來說明我們是如何推動這個的。我們現在有 18,500 名員工在敏捷中運作。在技術領域，其中 68% 是工程師，而在我們開始敏捷開發時這一比例為 55%。所以基本上，你會看到 13% 的增長，也就是 20% 的生產力提高。除了由此帶來的效率和生產力改進之外，它還可以更快地交付技術變革。從而加快改進產品的上市時間。我們還在 2022 年停用了 600 個應用程序，現在我們有 65% 的計算能力在雲端。

As you can see in the next slide, we remain very well positioned for the current environment and maintain a balance sheet for all seasons. In '22, we generated $7.5 billion of capital, of which we distributed $7.3 billion, including a $5.6 billion share repurchase. Our capital liquidity ratios are strong. Our balance sheet is healthy. Our strong balance sheet and risk management discipline allows us to support our clients, meet regulatory requirements and deliver attractive and sustainable capital returns to shareholders.

正如您在下一張幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們對當前環境保持很好的定位，並保持所有季節的資產負債表。 22 年，我們產生了 75 億美元的資本，其中我們分配了 73 億美元，包括 56 億美元的股票回購。我們的資本流動性比率很高。我們的資產負債表是健康的。我們強大的資產負債表和風險管理紀律使我們能夠支持我們的客戶，滿足監管要求，並為股東提供有吸引力和可持續的資本回報。

On Slide 9, you can see our progress on sustainability. As you know, sustainability is a core part of our strategy. We reduced our greenhouse gas emissions -- our own greenhouse gas emissions by another 11% as we upgrade buildings and continue to source 100% renewable electricity globally as well. We're proud of the progress that we're making on our objective to better reflect the diversity of our workforce and leadership positions. And we expanded our sustainable product offering, and we're proud to maintain our industry-leading ESG rating here as well.

在幻燈片 9 上，您可以看到我們在可持續發展方面取得的進展。如您所知，可持續性是我們戰略的核心部分。我們減少了溫室氣體排放——我們自己的溫室氣體排放量又減少了 11%，因為我們升級了建築物並繼續在全球範圍內採購 100% 可再生電力。我們為更好地反映我們員工隊伍和領導職位的多樣性的目標所取得的進展感到自豪。我們擴大了可持續產品供應，我們也很自豪能夠在這裡保持行業領先的 ESG 評級。

So the summary of the financial results, you see that on Slide 10. I've already mentioned the good performance for the full year. And for the quarter, we had strong flows and we managed it with discipline. We had solid results considering seasonality and the macroeconomic backdrop, which enabled us to wrap up the year comfortably within our targets.

所以財務結果的摘要，你可以在幻燈片 10 上看到。我已經提到了全年的良好表現。在本季度，我們有強勁的流量，我們有紀律地管理它。考慮到季節性和宏觀經濟背景，我們取得了可觀的業績，這使我們能夠在目標範圍內順利結束這一年。

Slide 11, which is more or less looking forward, we leave our financial targets unchanged for '23. We're confident in our ability to deliver 15% to 18% return on CET1 capital and to stay within the range of 70% to 73% of cost/income ratio. Our capital guidance is also unchanged. At our current capital levels, we are in a strong position to fund business growth and a progressive dividend while returning excess capital to shareholders via some share repurchases. During the first 4 weeks of this year, we bought back $500 million worth of shares, and we are targeting at least $5 billion for '23.

幻燈片 11 或多或少具有前瞻性，我們將 23 年的財務目標保持不變。我們有信心能夠提供 15% 至 18% 的 CET1 資本回報率，並將成本/收入比率保持在 70% 至 73% 的範圍內。我們的資本指引也沒有改變。以我們目前的資本水平，我們有能力為業務增長和累進股息提供資金，同時通過一些股票回購將多餘的資本返還給股東。今年前 4 週，我們回購了價值 5 億美元的股票，我們的目標是 23 年至少 50 億美元。

With that, let me hand over to Sarah. Sarah?

有了這個，讓我交給莎拉。莎拉？

Thank you, Ralph. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，拉爾夫。大家，早安。

Starting on Slide 13. In 2022, we delivered a good performance in a challenging environment. Our global franchise enabled us to meet our group financial targets both on a reported and underlying basis with strong cost control, risk management and capital returns.

從幻燈片 13 開始。2022 年，我們在充滿挑戰的環境中表現出色。我們的全球特許經營權使我們能夠通過強大的成本控制、風險管理和資本回報，在報告和基本基礎上實現我們的集團財務目標。

Now moving on to the quarter on Slide 14. Net profit was $1.7 billion with a reported return on CET1 of 14.7% and a cost/income ratio of 75.8%. The underlying performance is on the page, and the delta between reported and underlying is in the appendix.

現在轉到幻燈片 14 的季度。淨利潤為 17 億美元，報告的 CET1 回報率為 14.7%，成本/收入比率為 75.8%。底層性能在頁面上，報告和底層之間的增量在附錄中。

Revenue was down 8% and expense was down 13%. FX impacted both by approximately $200 million for a net effect of negative $25 million. The net credit loss expense was $7 million compared with the $27 million released last year, reflecting great stability in our credit metrics and strong risk management. The effective tax rate in the quarter was 14% plus compared with 21% a year ago due to deferred tax assets. For 2023, we expect it to be around 23%.

收入下降了 8%，費用下降了 13%。外匯對兩者的影響約為 2 億美元，淨影響為負 2500 萬美元。與去年發布的 2700 萬美元相比，淨信用損失費用為 700 萬美元，反映出我們信用指標的高度穩定性和強大的風險管理。由於遞延所得稅資產，本季度的有效稅率為 14% 以上，而一年前為 21%。到 2023 年，我們預計這一比例將在 23% 左右。

Let's start with fourth quarter revenue on Slide 15. In addition to the usual seasonality, the macroeconomic environment led to depressed equity markets and low levels of client, M&A and capital market activity. However, we saw increased activity in fixed income and the benefit of higher rates. As such, our underlying revenue ex FX was down 9% with an increase from NII in GWM and P&C more than offset by lower asset-based and transaction fees as well as lower IB revenue.

讓我們從幻燈片 15 上的第四季度收入開始。除了通常的季節性因素外，宏觀經濟環境還導致股市低迷以及客戶、併購和資本市場活動水平低下。然而，我們看到了固定收益活動的增加以及更高利率的好處。因此，我們除外匯之外的基本收入下降了 9%，而 GWM 和 P&C 中的 NII 有所增加，但被較低的基於資產的費用和交易費用以及較低的 IB 收入所抵消。

Moving to NII on Page 16 and starting with the top chart. In 2022, we added over $1 billion in net interest income with the benefit of higher rates partially offset by deposit volume and mix. In the bottom chart, you see the quarterly movements. NII of $2.1 billion was up $263 million or 14% quarter-on-quarter. This strong result reflects the benefit of our global franchise with every region contributing across GWM and P&C. Almost half of the increase was in Swiss francs and the rest mostly in euros and in U.S. dollars. As you would expect, the benefit of rates shown in the second bar was the main driver.

移至第 16 頁的 NII，並從頂部圖表開始。 2022 年，我們增加了超過 10 億美元的淨利息收入，利率上升的好處部分被存款量和組合所抵消。在底部圖表中，您可以看到季度變動。 NII 為 21 億美元，環比增長 2.63 億美元或 14%。這一強勁的業績反映了我們全球特許經營的好處，每個地區都為 GWM 和 P&C 做出了貢獻。幾乎一半的增長以瑞士法郎計價，其餘大部分以歐元和美元計價。如您所料，第二條中顯示的費率優勢是主要驅動因素。

Moving to deposit volumes. Total deposits rose 6% sequentially. This included $9 billion of net new deposits, which reflected a 7% annualized growth rate and with strong contributions in Switzerland and in APAC. We have seen continued demand for our products in both P&C and Wealth Management with the demand for our savings products exceeding sweep outflows.

轉移到存款量。總存款環比增長 6%。其中包括 90 億美元的淨新增存款，反映了 7% 的年化增長率，並在瑞士和亞太地區做出了巨大貢獻。我們看到對我們的財產險和財富管理產品的持續需求，對我們儲蓄產品的需求超過了清倉流出。

Moving to deposit mix. While the level of sweep outflows was similar to last quarter, we are seeing a deceleration of mix shifts in U.S. dollars, but some acceleration in euro. We haven't seen any shifts in Swiss francs yet, but we expect deposit mix impacts across currencies. Looking ahead, based on the current forwards, our exposure across Swiss francs, euros and U.S. dollars means we expect 2023 NII to be higher than 4Q '22 annualized. For 1Q '23, we anticipate a low to mid-single-digit increase versus 4Q '22.

轉向存款組合。雖然清倉流出的水平與上一季度相似，但我們看到美元的混合變化有所放緩，但歐元有所加速。我們還沒有看到瑞士法郎有任何變化，但我們預計存款組合會影響各種貨幣。展望未來，根據目前的遠期，我們對瑞士法郎、歐元和美元的敞口意味著我們預計 2023 年 NII 將高於 22 年第四季度的年化水平。對於 23 年第 1 季度，我們預計與 22 年第 4 季度相比將出現中低個位數增長。

Now turning to costs on Page 17. For the full year, as you can see on the chart, expense was down 4% or up 0.7% ex litigation and FX. If you also exclude variable comp, expense was up 2.6%. Decisive and immediate actions on cost in the second half of the year have contributed to us achieving our cost/income ratio target for the full year despite a challenging revenue environment.

現在轉到第 17 頁的成本。正如您在圖表中看到的那樣，全年的費用下降了 4% 或上升了 0.7%（不包括訴訟和外匯）。如果你還排除可變補償，費用上升了 2.6%。儘管收入環境充滿挑戰，但下半年對成本採取的果斷和立即行動有助於我們實現全年的成本/收入比目標。

Moving to the table at the bottom. This quarter's operating expense was down 13% year-on-year. Excluding litigation and FX, the number was up 1%. Inflationary pressures on salaries, higher technology costs and T&E were mostly offset by efficiencies. For 2023, we expect cost, ex litigation and FX, to increase by 2% to 3% year-on-year. We are managing the cost base and giving guidance, considering a range of economic scenarios. The guidance also reflects the annualization of last year's elevated inflation, continued investments and the expected benefit from efficiencies.

移動到底部的表。本季度營業費用同比下降13%。不包括訴訟和外匯，該數字增長了 1%。工資、更高的技術成本和 T&E 的通貨膨脹壓力大部分被效率所抵消。對於 2023 年，我們預計成本（不包括訴訟和外匯）將同比增長 2% 至 3%。考慮到一系列經濟情景，我們正在管理成本基礎並提供指導。該指引還反映了去年高通脹、持續投資和效率提高帶來的預期收益的年化結果。

Let's turn to these efficiencies on Slide 18. In 2021, we announced a $1 billion gross savings program to be achieved by 2023. I am pleased to report that we have already achieved $700 million to date, $100 million ahead of plan. To deliver that result, we effectively implemented a number of measures across the board, including restructuring, structural compensation adjustments, optimizing our footprint, reducing consultant and vendor spend, and executing our tech strategy with discipline.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 18 上的這些效率。2021 年，我們宣布了到 2023 年實現 10 億美元的總節省計劃。我很高興地報告，迄今為止我們已經實現了 7 億美元，比計劃提前 1 億美元。為了實現這一結果，我們全面有效地實施了一系列措施，包括重組、結構性薪酬調整、優化足跡、減少顧問和供應商支出，以及嚴格執行我們的技術戰略。

Through the addition of new initiatives, we are now expanding our gross cost savings program by 10% to $1.1 billion, and this is while absorbing FX headwinds of $100 million. We remain laser-focused on costs and committed to delivering the structural and tactical measures necessary to achieve both our guidance and our target cost/income ratio.

通過增加新舉措，我們現在將總成本節約計劃擴大 10% 至 11 億美元，同時吸收了 1 億美元的外匯逆風。我們仍然高度關注成本，並致力於提供必要的結構和戰術措施，以實現我們的指導和目標成本/收入比。

Let's move to our businesses, starting with GWM on Page 19. GWM profit before tax in the quarter was $1.1 billion, down 14% on an underlying basis. Revenue was 5% lower than last year with asset base and transaction revenue down in all regions, partially offset by net interest income. We continue to actively manage deposits across margins, volumes and mix, driving NII up 35% year-on-year with positive net new deposits and continued impact of deleveraging on net new loans.

讓我們轉向我們的業務，從第 19 頁的 GWM 開始。GWM 本季度的稅前利潤為 11 億美元，基本下降 14%。收入比去年下降 5%，所有地區的資產基礎和交易收入均有所下降，部分被淨利息收入所抵消。我們繼續積極管理利潤率、數量和組合的存款，推動 NII 同比增長 35%，淨新增存款為正，去槓桿化對淨新增貸款的持續影響。

Operating expense, ex litigation and FX, was flat year-on-year. Net new fee-generating assets were $23 billion in the quarter, an annualized growth rate of 8%. We had positive flows in all regions, mostly into advisory mandates and SMAs. For the past 12 months, we attracted $60 billion of net new fee-generating assets, which represents a 4% growth rate.

運營費用（不包括訴訟和外匯）同比持平。本季度淨新增收費資產為 230 億美元，年化增長率為 8%。我們在所有地區都有積極的資金流動，主要是進入諮詢授權和 SMA。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們吸引了 600 億美元的淨新收費資產，增長率為 4%。

Moving to Asset Management on Page 20 with a profit before tax of $124 million. Total revenue decreased 31% with lower net management fees driven by market headwinds and FX and lower performance fees. The cost/income ratio was 75% with lower revenue and expense down 4% as we benefited from FX and had lower personnel expenses.

轉到第 20 頁的資產管理，稅前利潤為 1.24 億美元。總收入下降 31%，原因是市場逆風和外匯導致淨管理費下降，績效費用也下降。成本/收入比率為 75%，收入和費用下降 4%，因為我們受益於外彙和較低的人員費用。

Net new money in the quarter was $11 billion, of which $16 billion went into money market funds as we successfully captured client demand for cash-like solutions. Excluding money market, we saw $4 billion inflows into sustainability focus and impact investments and $4 billion into SMAs, which were offset by outflows in our active equities and fixed income businesses as clients continued to rebalance portfolios.

本季度的淨新資金為 110 億美元，其中 160 億美元進入了貨幣市場基金，因為我們成功地抓住了客戶對類現金解決方案的需求。不包括貨幣市場，我們看到 40 億美元流入可持續發展重點和影響投資，40 億美元流入 SMA，隨著客戶繼續重新平衡投資組合，這些資金被我們活躍的股票和固定收益業務的流出所抵消。

While the Asset Management business has been impacted by markets, the franchise has important capabilities in key areas of focus, namely sustainable investments with $178 billion of invested assets, real estate and private markets with over $100 billion and SMAs totaling $125 billion.

雖然資產管理業務受到市場的影響，但該特許經營權在關鍵重點領域具有重要能力，即擁有 1,780 億美元投資資產的可持續投資、超過 1,000 億美元的房地產和私人市場以及總計 1,250 億美元的 SMA。

Now on to the IB on Slide 21. The IB delivered $112 million in profit before tax and a 4% return on attributed equity. Revenue in Global Markets of $1.4 billion was down 8% ex FX against a record fourth quarter last year. In equities, high correlation and the ongoing macro uncertainty dampened client volume, particularly in derivatives and cash equities. Our performance in the U.S. was weaker year-on-year, and we are continuing to invest in the franchise to bolster our capabilities. However, we delivered the best 4Q on record in our FX, rates and credit business.

現在轉到幻燈片 21 上的 IB。IB 實現了 1.12 億美元的稅前利潤和 4% 的歸屬股本回報率。全球市場收入為 14 億美元，除匯率外比去年第四季度創紀錄的收入下降 8%。在股票方面，高度相關性和持續的宏觀不確定性抑制了客戶量，特別是在衍生品和現金股票方面。我們在美國的表現同比較弱，我們將繼續投資於特許經營權以增強我們的能力。然而，我們的外匯、利率和信貸業務在第四季度取得了有史以來最好的成績。

Global Banking revenue was down 52%, in line with very low levels of industry activity across advisory and capital markets, but with strengths in APAC and EMEA. Operating expense was up 12% ex litigation and FX due to compensation adjustments that we made in 4Q '21.

全球銀行業務收入下降了 52%，這與諮詢和資本市場的行業活動水平非常低相一致，但在亞太地區和歐洲、中東和非洲地區表現強勁。由於我們在 2021 年第 4 季度進行的薪酬調整，不包括訴訟和外彙的營業費用增加了 12%。

Despite a challenging 4Q, the IB has delivered another year of strong results with a return on attributed equity of 15%, better revenue on RWA than any U.S. peer and record revenue in equities, derivatives and solutions, financing and prime brokerage. This was achieved in a rapidly evolving market context and with one of the lowest banking fee pools on record, yet we had record M&A in APAC and we outperformed in EMEA.

儘管第 4 季度充滿挑戰，IB 又取得了強勁的業績，歸因股本回報率為 15%，RWA 收入高於任何美國同行，並在股票、衍生品和解決方案、融資和大宗經紀業務方面創造了創紀錄的收入。這是在瞬息萬變的市場背景下實現的，並且是有史以來最低的銀行費用池之一，但我們在亞太地區的併購活動創下歷史新高，而且我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的表現優於其他地區。

Wrapping up on the businesses with the excellent performance in P&C on Page 22. Profit before tax in the fourth quarter was CHF 504 million, the best quarter in over 10 years when excluding one-off gains. This result was largely driven by 21% higher NII combined with strong cost discipline. Overall, total revenue rose 10% year-on-year with small decreases in recurring net fee income and lower transaction-based income.

總結第 22 頁財產和意外險中表現出色的業務。第四季度的稅前利潤為 5.04 億瑞士法郎，如果不包括一次性收益，這是 10 多年來最好的季度。這一結果主要是由於 NII 提高 21% 以及嚴格的成本控制。總體而言，總收入同比增長 10%，經常性淨費用收入略有下降，交易收入也有所下降。

We consistently engage with our clients and were able to deliver CHF 2 billion of net new investment products over the past 12 months, an annual growth rate of 8%. We also saw CHF 7 billion of net new deposits and CHF 4 billion of net new loans. We delivered a cost/income ratio of 54%, and costs were up 1% on an underlying basis. Included in these results are strong efficiencies and technology investments. A good proof point is the increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year in the share of Personal Banking clients that are active mobile users, which benefits our clients and creates operational efficiencies.

我們始終如一地與客戶互動，並在過去 12 個月內交付了 20 億瑞士法郎的淨新投資產品，年增長率為 8%。我們還看到 70 億瑞士法郎的淨新增存款和 40 億瑞士法郎的淨新增貸款。我們實現了 54% 的成本/收入比率，基礎成本上升了 1%。這些結果包括強大的效率和技術投資。一個很好的證明是，作為活躍移動用戶的個人銀行客戶的比例同比增長了 10 個百分點，這使我們的客戶受益並提高了運營效率。

Moving to capital on Page 23. At 14.2%, we maintained a strong capital position while delivering attractive capital returns. On the walk, starting at 14.4% at the end of last quarter, net profit contributed 50 basis points, offset by capital returns to our shareholders, also at around 50 basis points. The net currency effect was close to 0 quarter-on-quarter as the FX impacts on CET1 and RWA offset each other.

轉到第 23 頁的資本。在 14.2%，我們保持了強大的資本狀況，同時提供了有吸引力的資本回報。從上季度末的 14.4% 開始，淨利潤貢獻了 50 個基點，被股東的資本回報所抵消，也約為 50 個基點。由於外匯對 CET1 和 RWA 的影響相互抵消，淨貨幣影響環比接近 0。

Looking ahead, our guidance on regulatory-driven RWA remains consistent with last year, as shown in the appendix. Separately, we expect the introduction of the minimum tax in the U.S. to increase our cash tax rate and affect our CET1 capital accretion. Based on 2022 profitability, this would translate to around $250 million lower CET1 accretion, which would come back over time, as mentioned in our report.

展望未來，我們對監管驅動的風險加權資產的指引與去年保持一致，如附錄所示。另外，我們預計美國引入最低稅將提高我們的現金稅率並影響我們的 CET1 資本增值。根據 2022 年的盈利能力，這將轉化為 CET1 增值減少約 2.5 億美元，這將隨著時間的推移而恢復，正如我們的報告中提到的那樣。

Wrapping up on Slide 24. For 2022, we are proud of what we delivered for our clients, for our employees and for our shareholders. We returned $7.3 billion of capital for a payout ratio of 95%. We are committed to our strategy, to disciplined execution and to creating value for our shareholders. We entered 2023 from a position of strength. We expect to support our client franchises and invest for growth while remaining committed to a progressive dividend and repurchasing over $5 billion of shares.

在幻燈片 24 上結束。對於 2022 年，我們為我們為客戶、員工和股東提供的服務感到自豪。我們返還了 73 億美元的資本，派息率為 95%。我們致力於我們的戰略，嚴格執行並為我們的股東創造價值。我們以強勢進入 2023 年。我們希望支持我們的客戶特許經營權並投資於增長，同時繼續致力於遞增股息和回購超過 50 億美元的股票。

With that, let's open up for questions.

有了這個，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Kian Abouhossein from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Kian Abouhossein。

First question is regarding Asia. And can you just talk a little bit about what you're seeing in Asia? You made a very brief comment, Ralph, but maybe a little bit more. Do you see any re-leveraging change? Do you see any change in transaction volume pickup or net new fee-generating asset pickup? And what should we look out first in that respect in Wealth Management?

第一個問題是關於亞洲的。你能談談你在亞洲看到的情況嗎？拉爾夫，你發表了非常簡短的評論，但也許還多一點。你看到任何重新槓桿化的變化嗎？您是否看到交易量提取或淨新產生費用的資產提取有任何變化？在財富管理方面，我們首先應該注意什麼？

Secondly, in respect to forward curves, can you discuss what interest rates you use for the key markets in your assumptions on NII guidance for first quarter, but also more importantly, for '23? And what -- can you talk a little bit about betas in that respect and net interest income forward assumptions for '24, '25, what rates you're using at this point?

其次，關於遠期曲線，您能否討論一下您在第一季度 NII 指導假設中對主要市場使用的利率，更重要的是，對於 23 年的指導？什麼——你能談談這方面的貝塔值和 24 年、25 年的淨利息收入遠期假設，你目前使用的利率是多少？

Thank you, Kian. So the color I can give is limited, honestly, given the fact that beyond closing the year and this update, there's only like 3 weeks, 3.5 weeks of experience of what we see. But what we can tell you is that you did see also in the fourth quarter further deleveraging in Asia Pacific. We sense that towards the end of the quarter, that came to a halt there. So too early to say whether that is a stop or not, but that's what we saw.

謝謝你，基安。所以我能給出的顏色是有限的，老實說，考慮到除了結束這一年和這次更新之外，我們所看到的只有大約 3 週，3.5 週的經驗。但我們可以告訴你的是，你在第四季度也確實看到亞太地區進一步去槓桿化。我們感覺到，到本季度末，這種情況就停止了。現在說這是否是停止還為時過早，但這就是我們所看到的。

Then in terms of the mood in Asia, I think it's more upbeat. The markets, clients are surprised by the quick opening of China and the action-oriented approaches by the Chinese also to embrace the openness, to get the economic growth, to get investors in, regulators reaching out as well. So I think that's all very positive on one side.

然後就亞洲的情緒而言，我認為它更加樂觀。市場、客戶對中國的快速開放以及中國人以行動為導向的方法也感到驚訝，以擁抱開放，實現經濟增長，吸引投資者，監管機構也伸出援手。所以我認為這在一方面是非常積極的。

Then clearly, the new year started, everybody has their festivities. So the question there is really, how does it kind of -- how does this continue then? So for the moment, what we have seen in the recent rally is from our wealth clients, actually a wait-and-see-approach. So in terms of activity level and flows, wait-and-see as well.

那麼顯然，新的一年開始了，每個人都有他們的慶祝活動。所以真正的問題是，它是如何 - 那麼這將如何繼續？因此，就目前而言，我們在最近的反彈中看到的是來自我們的財富客戶，實際上是一種觀望態度。因此，在活動水平和流量方面，觀望為好。

Sarah?

莎拉？

Yes. In terms of the forwards, we are following the forwards, and we look at them all the time. And so you can use the forwards that are available now or as of Friday for your analysis.

是的。前鋒方面，我們是跟在前鋒的身後，一直盯著他們看。因此，您可以使用現在或截至週五可用的遠期數據進行分析。

So when you think about the right expectations that we are seeing in the different markets, we are seeing that the Fed continues to increase probably until the first quarter and then stabilizes from there. And then that is SNB going to the 1.5% [native] level, the SCB around the 3% and then coming down a bit. And the bank a bit learned a bit about that. So we are going exactly with the forward analysis as we do our analysis.

因此，當你考慮我們在不同市場看到的正確預期時，我們看到美聯儲可能會繼續加息直到第一季度，然後從那裡穩定下來。然後是 SNB 升至 1.5% [native] 水平，SCB 升至 3% 左右，然後略有下降。銀行對此有所了解。因此，我們在進行分析時將完全進行正向分析。

In terms of the betas, what I can tell you is that we are really considering the mix of our businesses. We don't disclose specifically the betas. But we are considering all of the mix across GWM and P&C at the granular level. And what you are seeing is the experience that we have had is reflective of actually, so far, our models have been predictive on the better side. We have seen a fair bit of mix in the U.S. And as I mentioned, in terms of euro, we are seeing to see some mix. And in Swiss francs, we would expect it to come, but it hasn't come.

就貝塔而言，我可以告訴你的是，我們真的在考慮我們的業務組合。我們沒有具體披露測試版。但我們正在細化考慮 GWM 和 P&C 的所有組合。你所看到的是我們所擁有的經驗實際上反映了到目前為止，我們的模型已經在更好的方面進行了預測。我們在美國看到了相當多的混合。正如我提到的，就歐元而言，我們看到了一些混合。在瑞士法郎中，我們希望它來，但它沒有來。

Mix shift.

混班。

Yes.

是的。

The next question is from Flora Bocahut from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Flora Bocahut。

The first question I wanted to ask you is regarding the cost/income target, which you have reiterated today for the midterm on 70% to 73%. It's been now -- when we look at the underlying profit level, so ex any one-offs, it's been 3 quarters that you've been outside that range. So what makes you think you can get back towards the range? And how quickly can we expect that you will get back towards that level of cost/income ratio already in the next few quarters?

我想問你的第一個問題是關於成本/收入目標，你今天重申了 70% 到 73% 的中期目標。現在 - 當我們查看潛在的利潤水平時，除了任何一次性的，你已經有 3 個季度超出了這個範圍。那麼是什麼讓你認為你可以回到這個範圍內呢？在接下來的幾個季度中，我們預計您將多快恢復到該水平的成本/收入比率？

And the second question is just coming back to the net new money in APAC. I mean, obviously, you had a stronger-than-usual run rate in Switzerland, in Europe, but then not so much in APAC. You're talking about the wait-and-see approach. Would it be fair to say that some of the outflows that have been seen elsewhere may not yet have been transferred to one of the competitors and could be waiting to be picked up? Is that a fair assumption?

第二個問題只是回到亞太地區的淨新資金。我的意思是，很明顯，你在瑞士、歐洲的運行率高於往常，但在亞太地區則沒有那麼多。你說的是觀望的方法。可以公平地說，在其他地方看到的一些流出可能尚未轉移到其中一個競爭對手，並且可能正在等待被提取嗎？這是一個公平的假設嗎？

So I will start with the second one and then Sarah can take you through the first one there. So on the flows in Asia, actually, we saw healthy flows in Asia throughout the year really in net new fee-generating assets and also in the fourth quarter at $3.4 billion. So that was actually more a continuation of flows coming through, very solid client relationships.

所以我將從第二個開始，然後 Sarah 可以帶你完成第一個。因此，在亞洲的流量方面，實際上，我們看到亞洲全年的健康流量實際上是淨新的收費資產，第四季度也是 34 億美元。因此，這實際上更像是流量的延續，非常穩固的客戶關係。

If your question is to which stand is some of these flows related to the status of other financial institutions, we can only say that our growth is -- that is not the primary source of our growth at all. You should know and you do know that we're the #1 wealth manager in Asia. We have a very clear position around how we deal with our clients and also what our risk appetite is with clients. And therefore, it is more because of what we represent and what we do that we attract these flows than the other way around.

如果你的問題是這些流動中的一些與其他金融機構的地位有關，我們只能說我們的增長是 - 這根本不是我們增長的主要來源。你應該知道，你確實知道我們是亞洲排名第一的財富管理公司。我們對如何與客戶打交道以及我們對客戶的風險偏好有非常明確的立場。因此，更多的是因為我們所代表的和我們所做的，我們吸引了這些流量，而不是相反。

Sarah?

莎拉？

In terms of the cost/income ratio underlying, when you're looking at what's coming ahead, first of all, you have the benefit of rate. And so NII is continuing to be a strong contribution to our results. Second of all, you've got the contribution from the floats that we are continuing to generate. And after that, in terms of the equity market, obviously, there are different ranges of scenarios and everybody can make their assumptions there.

就潛在的成本/收入比而言，當你關注未來的發展時，首先，你會受益於利率。因此，NII 繼續為我們的成果做出巨大貢獻。其次，您已經從我們不斷產生的花車中得到了貢獻。在那之後，就股票市場而言，顯然有不同範圍的情景，每個人都可以在那裡做出假設。

In terms of the cost side, you're seeing us to be very rigorous there. And so the expense guidance that we gave you, 2% to 3%, ex FX and litigation, is of course reflected in our cost/income ratio guidance.

在成本方面，你看到我們在那裡非常嚴格。因此，我們給你的費用指導，2% 到 3%，不包括外彙和訴訟，當然反映在我們的成本/收入比率指導中。

Your next question is from Andrew Coombs from Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗的安德魯庫姆斯。

One on capital return and then one on FX. If I look at capital return, you've guided greater than $5 billion for the buybacks. I know it'd be greater than the comment. I guess my question would be why did you not feel comfortable coming out with guidance that was more similar to full year '22, so the $5.6 billion that you executed? I know you flagged the CMT tax change in the U.S. But just trying to understand your rationale for why it'd be greater than $5 billion, which is obviously less than what you've achieved last year.

一個關於資本回報，然後一個關於外匯。如果我看一下資本回報，你指導了超過 50 億美元的回購。我知道它會比評論更重要。我想我的問題是，為什麼你不願意提出與 22 年全年更相似的指導，所以你執行的 56 億美元？我知道你在美國標記了 CMT 稅收變化，但只是想了解你為什麼它會超過 50 億美元的理由，這顯然低於你去年取得的成就。

And then my second question, just on FX. I know your cost guidance for the growth in 2023 is ex FX movements. Obviously, the FX move overall should be a tailwind this year for you in terms of profitability, but potentially a headwind to your cost line. So perhaps you could give us an idea of what you think the magnitude on revenues and costs would be based on current FX rates versus the '22 average.

然後是我的第二個問題，關於 FX。我知道您對 2023 年增長的成本指導是不包括外匯變動。顯然，就盈利能力而言，今年的整體外匯走勢對您來說應該是順風，但可能對您的成本線不利。因此，也許您可以讓我們了解您認為收入和成本的幅度將基於當前的匯率與 22 年的平均水平。

Yes, thank you, Andrew. I'll take the first one; Sarah, the second one. So on the capital guidance, I think if you compare our language that we used last year around this time and this time, it's more confident. Because last year, we basically gave you a guidance of around $5 billion. And now basically, we're giving you above $5 billion.

是的，謝謝你，安德魯。我要第一個；莎拉，第二個。所以在資本指導方面，我認為如果你比較我們去年這個時候和這次使用的語言，它會更有信心。因為去年，我們基本上給了你50億美元左右的指導。現在基本上，我們給你超過 50 億美元。

And honestly, why don't we give precise numbers? Because it's not a precise business that we're in. So we have to deal with market circumstances, with developments, with sentiments, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And we think it is better to give you a guidance that we're confident in on delivering and then update you while the year goes by.

老實說，我們為什麼不給出準確的數字呢？因為這不是我們所從事的精確業務。所以我們必須應對市場環境、發展、情緒等等。我們認為最好給你一個我們有信心交付的指導，然後在一年過去的時候更新你。

Sarah?

莎拉？

In terms of the FX, all I would give you as a reference point is that the FX was an impact, for example, this quarter of approximately $200 million in both directions, so both on the expense and on the revenue. And so that gives you an idea of what it could look like, but of course, it will depend on the FX cost.

就 FX 而言，我想給你的所有參考點是 FX 是一個影響，例如，本季度雙向約 2 億美元，因此對費用和收入都有影響。這樣您就可以了解它的外觀，但是當然，這將取決於外匯成本。

The next question is from Jeremy Sigee from BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Jeremy Sigee。

Two related questions, please, both on net new money flows. Firstly, your outlook comment has quite a cautious comment about client sentiment may affect flows. I know that's unchanged language from the previous quarter. I just wondered if there's anything specific in that, that you're seeing or if that's just general caution. That's my first question.

請兩個相關的問題，都是關於淨新資金流動的。首先，您的前景評論對客戶情緒可能影響流量的評論相當謹慎。我知道這與上一季度的語言沒有變化。我只是想知道您看到的是否有任何具體內容，或者這是否只是一般性警告。這是我的第一個問題。

And then the second one, slightly related. I know it's sensitive for you to talk about flows from or relating to your competitors. But I just wondered why you wouldn't be the natural home for outflows coming out of a competitor. You're saying that's not the primary source of your inflows, which is a bit surprising. Why wouldn't you be the natural home for some of those flows to relocate to?

然後是第二個，有點相關。我知道談論來自競爭對手或與競爭對手有關的流量對您來說很敏感。但我只是想知道為什麼你不是競爭對手流出資金的天然家園。你是說這不是你資金流入的主要來源，這有點令人驚訝。為什麼你不成為其中一些人流搬遷的天然家園？

Thank you, Jeremy. So on the first one, it is general caution. So since you asked the question, so specifically, it is general caution. And it has to do, Jeremy, with the fact that we are at the start of the year, we see some positive signals around China opening up, could be a support of economic growth and constructive market environment. We see the LCM, the leverage capital markets, coming back to life a bit, which is normally a leading indicator for capital markets to open up as well. So those are positive signals.

謝謝你，傑里米。所以對於第一個，一般來說是謹慎的。所以既然你問了這個問題，那麼具體來說，這是一般的謹慎。傑里米，這與我們在年初的事實有關，我們看到圍繞中國開放的一些積極信號，可能是經濟增長和建設性市場環境的支持。我們看到槓桿資本市場 LCM 稍微恢復生機，這通常也是資本市場開放的領先指標。所以這些都是積極的信號。

But on the other hand, we're waiting for inflation numbers and with that to get a sense for how strict central banks will have to move in order to curb that inflation to break it into a nonstructural inflation to a lower level and what the cost of that could be to the economy. So that's why we are generally cautious because these are the things that play. I do expect, in the next couple of weeks even, to have a bit more clarity certainly about inflation, central bank movements, China further opening up, corporate results coming through as well. So I do think that the next couple of weeks could give us some hints as to how firm market recovery could be. So -- and that -- but for the moment, it is general caution there.

但另一方面，我們正在等待通貨膨脹數據，以此來了解中央銀行必須採取多嚴格的措施來遏制通貨膨脹，將其分解為非結構性通貨膨脹至較低水平，以及成本是多少其中可能對經濟有幫助。所以這就是我們通常保持謹慎的原因，因為這些是發揮作用的東西。我確實預計，甚至在接下來的幾週內，通脹、央行行動、中國進一步開放以及企業業績也會更加明朗。所以我確實認為接下來的幾周可能會給我們一些關於市場復甦可能有多穩固的暗示。所以 - 那個 - 但就目前而言，那里普遍謹慎。

On the second question, there's many places where clients can go. In general, given the fact that we are the largest wealth manager in the world, there's not necessarily new clients for us, right? So we already deal with clients that others have as well. So although we are certainly the natural place for these clients to go to, they are generally already a client of ours. That is one aspect. And the other aspect is that there is a bit of a difference in risk appetite in some situations as well. So those are the 2. Thank you.

關於第二個問題，客戶可以去的地方很多。總的來說，鑑於我們是世界上最大的財富管理機構，我們不一定會有新客戶，對嗎？因此，我們已經與其他人也擁有的客戶打交道。因此，儘管我們當然是這些客戶的自然去處，但他們通常已經是我們的客戶。這是一方面。另一方面，在某些情況下，風險偏好也存在一些差異。所以這些是 2。謝謝。

The next question is from Anke Reingen from Royal Bank of Canada.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的 Anke Reingen。

I just wanted to ask on costs again. I mean given we commonly adjust for FX rates, I mean I understand you don't want to give any more guidance, but can you give us maybe like the FX mix on costs? Or if we think about the cost/income ratio, should FX effects basically be neutral for the cost/income ratio?

我只是想再問一下費用。我的意思是，鑑於我們通常會根據匯率進行調整，我的意思是我知道你不想提供更多指導，但你能給我們一些關於成本的外匯組合嗎？或者，如果我們考慮成本/收入比，外匯效應對成本/收入比的影響應該基本上是中性的嗎？

And then in terms of the Investment Banking, you said 2022 is a good revenue year, but the cost/income ratio is 78%. Is that sort of like where you think on the cost/income ratio should be? Or do you think it should be trending down lower in the Investment Bank?

然後在投資銀行方面，你說2022年是一個很好的收入年，但是成本/收入比率是78%。這有點像你認為成本/收入比應該在哪裡？或者你認為它應該在投資銀行走低嗎？

Okay. So I'll start with the second question and Sarah will take the first one, Anke. So on the second one, basically, the way we look at our Investment Bank, as you know, is an Investment Bank that is -- has to return its cost of capital. And there is a combination here of the use of capital and it is a capital-light Investment Bank, as you know, and with that, therefore, also the consequences for the cost/income ratio. So since we are capital-light on the Investment Bank, we are best practice in the return on risk-weighted assets.

好的。所以我將從第二個問題開始，Sarah 將回答第一個問題，Anke。所以在第二個方面，基本上，我們看待我們的投資銀行的方式，正如你所知，是一家投資銀行 - 必須返還其資本成本。正如你所知，這裡有資本使用的組合，它是一家輕資本投資銀行，因此，成本/收入比率也會產生影響。因此，由於我們對投資銀行的資本輕，因此我們在風險加權資產的回報方面是最佳實踐。

The cost/income ratio may not be as competitively seen because we invest heavily in technology as well because that's the way we play in the Investment Bank. And therefore, the return in the Investment Bank, and we had the last 3 years a very good return, all 3 years good returns and also returning more than cost of capital, that is more for us the indicator that we manage the Investment Banking on than per se the cost/income ratio. Because in the markets that we play in, we need to continue to invest in technology and artificial intelligence because that's the game we play in the Investment Bank. So that, I hope, explains you as to how we look at the Investment Bank.

成本/收入比率可能不那麼有競爭力，因為我們也在技術上投入了大量資金，因為這就是我們在投資銀行的運作方式。因此，投資銀行的回報，我們在過去 3 年獲得了非常好的回報，所有 3 年的回報都很好，而且回報超過了資本成本，這對我們來說更像是我們管理投資銀行的指標而不是本身的成本/收入比率。因為在我們參與的市場中，我們需要繼續投資技術和人工智能，因為這是我們在投資銀行玩的遊戲。所以，我希望，向您解釋我們如何看待投資銀行。

And in terms of the cost/income ratio, you mentioned it and it's a great way to think about it, it is really very neutral in terms of how it's affected by FX. So the best way to think about it is that all of our guidance is standing regardless of the FX because on the cost/income ratio, both the numerator and the denominator of FX are affected in opposite directions.

就成本/收入比而言，你提到了它，這是一個很好的思考方式，就它如何受外匯影響而言，它確實非常中性。因此，最好的思考方式是，我們所有的指導都與外匯無關，因為在成本/收入比率上，外彙的分子和分母都受到相反方向的影響。

The next question is from Adam Terelak from Mediobanca.

下一個問題來自 Mediobanca 的 Adam Terelak。

I've got another one on costs and then one on capital. On expenses, I'm actually a little bit surprised on the cost guide, 2% to 3%, given that previously, you've spoken ex variable compensation, but now you seem to bake that into the guide. Can you give us a bit of color about kind of base case for revenues opposite that, particularly in GWM, which is clearly [as well your] comp is very much linked to the fee line there? So just a feel from your base cases on planning and why a switching guidance from kind of an underlying inflation figure to -- which excluded variable comp to one that's now all in.

我有另一個關於成本的，然後是一個關於資本的。關於費用，我實際上對成本指南感到有點驚訝，2% 到 3%，因為之前你已經說過可變補償，但現在你似乎把它納入了指南。你能給我們一些關於收入的基本情況的顏色嗎？因此，請從您的基本案例中了解一下規劃，以及為什麼將指導從一種潛在的通貨膨脹數字轉變為 - 將可變補償排除在現在的基礎上。

And then secondly, it's a bit of a technical question around Basel IV. I appreciate the slide in the appendix. Can you just give us a bit of a color about how the short-term inflation to your risk weight is front loading some of that Basel IV impact, so the relation between kind of the 2022 to 2023 inflation and what that's done to your 2025 Basel IV impact? And can you split that out a little bit between credit risk and operational risk? And how we should be thinking about the short term versus the longer term there and the interaction between the 2?

其次，這是一個關於巴塞爾協議 IV 的技術問題。我很欣賞附錄中的幻燈片。您能否簡單介紹一下您的風險權重的短期通脹如何預先加載巴塞爾協議 IV 的一些影響，以及 2022 年至 2023 年通脹類型與您的 2025 年巴塞爾協議所做的事情之間的關係靜脈影響？你能把信用風險和操作風險分開一點嗎？我們應該如何考慮短期與長期以及兩者之間的相互作用？

In terms of the cost, we wanted to give you a guidance that is reflective of how we manage the place, which is on the total cost. And of course, I think ex FX and ex litigation is helpful in terms of the exclusions. The reason for the range is actually to consider different revenue outcomes as well as the different paces of investments that could be related to that. So that's really on the first one.

在成本方面，我們想為您提供一個指導，反映我們如何管理這個地方，即總成本。當然，我認為 ex FX 和 ex 訴訟在排除方面是有幫助的。該範圍的原因實際上是考慮不同的收入結果以及可能與之相關的不同投資步伐。所以這真的是第一個。

On the second one, what you're seeing is exactly how you framed it in your question, which is that we are seeing some timing difference. So the total trip between the end of 2021 and the adoption of Basel is about that $30 billion that we talked about exactly a year ago. But we are able to offset the increases that happened along the way with reductions in the final adoption because it is addressing the same risks that have already been covered by some of the model updates that we put in place. So it's exactly as I think you expected, the framing of your question.

在第二個問題上，您所看到的正是您在問題中的構架方式，即我們看到了一些時間差異。因此，從 2021 年底到採用巴塞爾協議之間的總行程約為我們一年前談到的 300 億美元。但我們能夠通過最終採用的減少來抵消一路上發生的增加，因為它正在解決我們實施的一些模型更新已經涵蓋的相同風險。所以這正是我認為你所期望的，你的問題的框架。

In terms of where it's coming from, there is also one element that is interesting, which is that as you are moving from 2024 to 2025, because of the operational risk and how it's calculated, there is some of the exposure that just drops from the record, and so there is a little bit of help there.

就它的來源而言，還有一個有趣的因素，那就是當你從 2024 年過渡到 2025 年時，由於運營風險及其計算方式，有些風險敞口剛剛從記錄，所以那裡有一點幫助。

Can I just follow up on operational risk? I know Switzerland hasn't quite defined ILM, whereas Europe has gone to one. Do you know where the debate on that is? Because I assume you've got operational losses as part of the calculation on your Basel IV impact.

我可以跟進操作風險嗎？我知道瑞士還沒有完全定義工業光魔，而歐洲已經定義了工業光魔。你知道關於那個的爭論在哪裡嗎？因為我假設您在計算 Basel IV 影響時會出現運營損失。

Yes. So operational losses is included, and the debate is still open on that in Switzerland.

是的。因此，運營損失也包括在內，而在瑞士，關於這一點的爭論仍在繼續。

The next question is from Amit Goel from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Amit Goel。

I have one kind of follow-on question and then one different question. The follow-on question, I guess, come back to net new fee-generating asset growth. I guess there have been a few moving parts in 2022 driving that strong performance. But I'm just kind of curious if in 2023, given the China reopening, you would kind of put it as a base case that net new fee-generating asset growth should be stronger this year than last?

我有一種後續問題，然後是另一種不同的問題。我想接下來的問題會回到新的收費資產淨增長。我想 2022 年有一些活動因素推動了這種強勁的表現。但我只是有點好奇，如果在 2023 年，考慮到中國重新開放，你是否會把今年新的收費資產淨增長應該比去年更強勁作為一個基本情況？

And the second question, just relating to the medium-term investment plans and, in particular, on the digital side in the U.S., just curious to your thinking in terms of investment there with the wealth fund transaction not happening. Is that an area where we should expect some cost growth? Or is that segment of the market not something that you're looking to continue or looking to play into?

第二個問題，僅與中期投資計劃有關，特別是在美國的數字方面，只是想知道您在沒有進行財富基金交易的情況下在那裡進行投資的想法。這是我們應該預期成本增長的領域嗎？還是那部分市場不是您想要繼續或想要涉足的市場？

Thank you, Amit. So on the first question, so you know that the way we look at net new fee-generating assets when we came out with our strategy over the last 2 years in thesis, but specifically also came around with guidance around net new fee-generating asset growth is that we expect this to grow around to 5%. Some years may be a bit below and some years a little bit higher, but it's the 5% that you can count on, and that's also the way we see things developing more or less. So that's on net new fee-generating assets.

謝謝你，阿米特。所以關於第一個問題，所以你知道當我們在過去兩年的論文中提出我們的戰略時，我們看待淨新的收費資產的方式，但具體來說也圍繞淨新的收費資產提出了指導增長是我們預計這將增長到 5% 左右。有些年份可能會低一點，有些年份會高一點，但這是你可以指望的 5%，這也是我們或多或少看待事物發展的方式。所以這是淨新的收費資產。

Now back to the U.S., just to kind of make that case once again, I think it's important that we are large in the U.S. We are a very well-recognized brand in the U.S. As I explained in my opening, we're very focused on our wealth clients and on our family office clients there as well. And those need financial advisers that need to be supported by digital tools. So we have launched the initial versions of an improved workstation. That will be further improved over time. Then we are working on further digitalization, some of the processes to support their business and increase their productivity as well.

現在回到美國，再次證明這一點，我認為我們在美國的規模很大很重要。我們在美國是一個非常知名的品牌。正如我在開場白中解釋的那樣，我們非常專注我們的財富客戶和我們的家族辦公室客戶也在那裡。那些需要數字工具支持的財務顧問。因此，我們推出了改進工作站的初始版本。隨著時間的推移，這將得到進一步改善。然後我們正在致力於進一步的數字化，一些流程來支持他們的業務並提高他們的生產力。

As you know, banking in itself is important to us as well in order to develop the product slate for them to be more successful also on the banking side. And since we started this, and this is before the update even, we have increased our banking business around deposits by $48 billion and the loans by $41 billion. So you see the banking business really coming through. And therefore, we need to continue to invest in that. Also in the process of supporting that flow into our bank in the U.S., it's important as well.

如您所知，銀行業務本身對我們也很重要，以便開發產品組合，使他們在銀行業務方面也更加成功。自從我們開始這項工作以來，甚至在更新之前，我們的銀行業務圍繞存款增加了 480 億美元，貸款增加了 410 億美元。所以你看到銀行業務真的成功了。因此，我們需要繼續投資於此。同樣在支持資金流入我們美國銀行的過程中，這也很重要。

Now if you read all these digital components that we have to deliver for the -- for our Wealth Management clients, then automatically, we are building a base that we can also then develop specific propositions for our workplace wealth clients that we have 2 million of. So that's the way you should look at it.

現在，如果您閱讀我們必須為我們的財富管理客戶提供的所有這些數字組件，那麼我們會自動建立一個基礎，然後我們還可以為我們擁有 200 萬的工作場所財富客戶制定具體的建議.所以這就是你應該看待它的方式。

Now honestly, I do think that, and most of the people who know me, think there is never an end to technology expenditures, and that will also not ever end in the U.S. So for us, this is more a program of continuation of investment and improvement and moving to an agile way working there as well, like we have done in many other parts of UBS. And then you will have a continuation of technology investments in order to improve each and every part of our franchise there to make it more efficient and make our financial advisers more productive.

老實說，我確實認為，大多數認識我的人都認為技術支出永遠不會結束，而且在美國也永遠不會結束。所以對我們來說，這更像是一個持續投資的計劃以及改進和轉向敏捷的工作方式，就像我們在瑞銀的許多其他部門所做的那樣。然後你將繼續進行技術投資，以改善我們在那裡的特許經營權的每一部分，使其更有效率，並使我們的財務顧問更有效率。

The next question is from Magdalena Stoklosa from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Magdalena Stoklosa。

I've got 2 questions, both on wealth. The first one is literally a follow-up on your explanation about the kind of U.S. business over the last couple of years because, of course, we've talked over quarters about that kind of banking penetration, about business banking penetration, about the loan penetration as the way to grow that product franchise in the U.S.

我有兩個問題，都是關於財富的。第一個實際上是你對過去幾年美國業務類型的解釋的後續行動，因為，當然，我們已經討論了幾個季度關於那種銀行業務滲透，關於商業銀行業務滲透，關於貸款滲透作為在美國發展該產品特許經營權的方式

But Ralph, can I ask, when it comes to kind of deliverables going forward that you will be holding that kind of U.S. wealth business, too, what would be your key ones? Is it still about the deposits, the loan growth, the balances of which you've just mentioned? Or is it kind of more nuanced than that? So that's the first question.

但是拉爾夫，我能問一下，當談到未來的可交付成果時，你也將持有那種美國財富業務，你的關鍵是什麼？還是你剛才提到的存款、貸款增長、餘額？還是比這更微妙？這是第一個問題。

And the second question is about the Middle East as an opportunity in wealth. I think you very briefly mentioned it in the slides talking about EMEA flows or net flows. But can I just ask because, of course, we don't really focus on the region kind of as much as we probably should, how do you see it as the wealth franchise? What's the plan going forward? And actually, could you give us a sense just how much of those EMEA inflows were actually generated in MENA?

第二個問題是關於中東作為財富機會的。我想你在幻燈片中非常簡短地提到了它，談論 EMEA 流量或淨流量。但是我可以問一下，因為當然，我們並沒有像我們應該的那樣真正關注該地區，您如何看待它作為財富特許經營權？未來有什麼計劃？實際上，您能告訴我們這些 EMEA 流入中有多少實際上是在 MENA 產生的嗎？

So thank you, Magda. So on the first one, clearly, we go into much more details as to getting a feel for how the U.S. business is developing. But what is important here is that we are a top 5 player there. We are -- we have a very specific brand recognition there and we have to build on the strength of our brand there, which basically means that the core of our business is done through our financial advisers, if not almost all.

所以謝謝你，瑪格達。因此，在第一個方面，很明顯，我們會深入了解更多細節，以了解美國企業的發展情況。但這裡重要的是我們是那裡的前 5 名球員。我們是——我們在那裡有一個非常具體的品牌認知度，我們必須在那裡建立我們的品牌實力，這基本上意味著我們的核心業務是通過我們的財務顧問完成的，如果不是幾乎全部的話。

And that is the crucial aspect of it, and what we want to do is for them to be much more productive. So in terms of the levers that we pull is financial adviser productivity, not only by supporting them with much better processes, but also with the right and more sophisticated products than everybody else can; also global products, which is basically where the UBS as a global wealth manager comes in, as a differentiating tool there as well.

這是它的關鍵方面，我們想要做的是讓他們更有效率。因此，就我們拉動的槓桿而言，財務顧問的生產力不僅通過更好的流程支持他們，而且還提供比其他任何人都能提供的正確和更複雜的產品；還有全球產品，這基本上是瑞銀作為全球財富管理機構的用武之地，也是一種差異化工具。

But on top of that, we are specifically recruiting those financial advisers that are more productive and that have higher net worth and ultra high net worth clients and are in those geographies where we expect much faster growth, general geographies where there is quite some entrepreneurial wealth creation because the fastest growth in the U.S. in the U.S. wealth pool comes from entrepreneurial wealth.

但最重要的是，我們正在專門招聘那些生產力更高、擁有更高淨值和超高淨值客戶的財務顧問，他們位於我們預計增長更快的地區，一般地區有相當多的創業財富創造，因為美國財富池中美國增長最快的是創業財富。

So it is much more than just a couple of top lines. It is very specific as to where do we recruit our FAs, where do we expect the wealth creation to be, who have a proven track record through which we can work, how can we support them with sophisticated products, where does banking play a role there in the stickiness of those relationships so that they can continue to build a franchise. So there's a couple of indicators that we are looking at as to how we actually grow this business sustainably and not only tactically. That is the important element of our U.S. business.

因此，它不僅僅是幾條頂線。關於我們在哪裡招募我們的 FA，我們期望在哪裡創造財富，誰擁有我們可以工作的可靠記錄，我們如何用複雜的產品支持他們，銀行在哪裡發揮作用，這是非常具體的這些關係的粘性使他們可以繼續建立特許經營權。因此，我們正在研究一些指標，以了解我們如何真正可持續地而非僅在戰術上發展這項業務。這是我們美國業務的重要組成部分。

Now when it comes to the Middle East, it's not new to UBS that we bank the Middle East, but we are growing our teams there. Over the last 2 years, we did open our office in Qatar, in Doha. We have recruited people there. Beyond the wealth business, we also do services activities there as well. So we're committed to that. And you see on the back of recruiting teams in the Middle East, you see more clients coming through and also the flows coming from those clients. And in the fourth quarter, yes, there were also flows coming through there. These are the ultra high net worth individuals in the Middle East, so they come with high tickets.

現在說到中東，我們在中東開展銀行業務對瑞銀來說並不新鮮，但我們正在那裡發展我們的團隊。在過去的 2 年裡，我們確實在卡塔爾多哈開設了辦事處。我們在那裡招募了人員。除了財富業務，我們還在那裡開展服務活動。所以我們致力於此。你看到在中東招聘團隊的支持下，你看到更多的客戶來了，還有來自這些客戶的流量。在第四季度，是的，那裡也有流量。這些都是中東的超高淨值人士，所以他們是高價而來。

The next question is from Stefan Stalmann from Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Stefan Stalmann。

I would like to start with a question on NII, please, on your guidance. You're guiding quite specifically about what should happen between Q4 '22 and Q1 '23, but you're a bit less specific for the whole year. Do you see any reasonable scenario where on an FX-neutral basis, your NII in any of the following quarters, Q2 to Q4 '23, could be lower than it was or than it is expected to be in Q1 '23?

我想從一個關於 NII 的問題開始，請聽取您的指導。您非常具體地指導了 22 年第 4 季度和 23 年第 1 季度之間應該發生什麼，但您對全年的具體情況就不那麼具體了。您是否看到任何合理的情況，即在外匯中性的基礎上，您在以下任何季度（23 年第二季度至第四季度）的 NII 可能低於或低於 23 年第一季度的預期？

And the second question, I guess, goes back somewhat to what Magdalena just asked in GWM and the U.S. business. Your Chairman toyed with the idea in the recent interview about publishing separate KPIs for the U.S. Wealth Management business. And I was wondering whether you would consider doing that. And given that you're currently not breaking out the U.S. business at all, whether that would require a change in the divisional setup.

我想，第二個問題可以追溯到 Magdalena 剛剛在 GWM 和美國業務中提出的問題。您的董事長在最近的採訪中考慮過為美國財富管理業務發佈單獨的 KPI 的想法。我想知道你是否會考慮這樣做。鑑於您目前根本沒有拆分美國業務，這是否需要改變部門設置。

Thank you, Stefan. I will answer the last one and then Sarah will answer the first one. So on the last one, it's under consideration.

謝謝你，斯特凡。我會回答最後一個，然後 Sarah 會回答第一個。所以關於最後一個，它正在考慮中。

So in terms of what you should expect, first of all, if you look at the forwards, that is what is underlying our guidance. So if you take different forwards, you could certainly see different scenarios going there. And we give you on each quarter more information very precisely about the following quarter, but we wanted also to cement that there is a very good story for the full year, which is why we gave you the annualized guidance.

因此，就您應該期待的內容而言，首先，如果您查看前瞻性內容，這就是我們指導的基礎。所以如果你採取不同的前進方向，你肯定會看到不同的場景。我們在每個季度都非常準確地為您提供有關下一季度的更多信息，但我們還想鞏固全年都有一個非常好的故事，這就是我們為您提供年度指導的原因。

The next question is from Andrew Lim from Societe Generale.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Andrew Lim。

I'd like to drill down a bit more into Wealth Management Americas and discuss that, as the others have done. So I mean relative to other regions, as we've seen in Slide 31, that decline of 20% in PBT seems quite disappointing compared to the other regions. So I was wondering if you could give a bit more color on whether they're suffering a bit more on the deposit beta or migration side there and whether that represents a sea change going forward in the profit trajectory.

我想像其他人所做的那樣，更深入地了解美洲財富管理並進行討論。所以我的意思是相對於其他地區，正如我們在幻燈片 31 中看到的那樣，與其他地區相比，PBT 下降 20% 似乎非常令人失望。所以我想知道你是否可以給出更多的顏色來說明他們是否在存款貝塔或遷移方面遭受更多的痛苦，以及這是否代表利潤軌蹟的巨大變化。

And then perhaps you could -- maybe you could talk a bit more specifically about that structural difference in the Americas versus peers in the U.S. They didn't suffer such a big decline in PBT in the fourth quarter. It was rather flat or up. And then if you look at the cost/income ratio, your sort of 86%, it's still a good 60 percentage points higher than peers. So what are the differences here in UBS Americas versus U.S. peers? And what can you do here to really improve that?

然後也許你可以——也許你可以更具體地談談美洲與美國同行的結構性差異。他們在第四季度的 PBT 沒有出現如此大的下降。它相當平坦或向上。然後如果你看一下成本/收入比率，你的 86%，它仍然比同行高出 60 個百分點。那麼 UBS Americas 與美國同行的區別是什麼？您可以在這裡做些什麼來真正改善它？

Thank you. So if you compare us with the peers in the Americas is that the peers that we compete with have a local banking business and which is very stable in terms of what -- if it comes to production of their business, of new clients as well as the stickiness of the money and the -- and with that, where they may need to price in order to manage the shift in the mix of the business. We're very much a wealth manager. That's what we do. And they are a combination of a wealth manager and some have a larger exposure to the local business, which generally comes with a bigger scale in that local business and with that, therefore, also a lower cost/income ratio.

謝謝你。因此，如果您將我們與美洲的同行進行比較，我們與之競爭的同行擁有本地銀行業務，並且在業務、新客戶以及新客戶的生產方面非常穩定。資金的粘性以及 - 因此，他們可能需要定價以管理業務組合的轉變。我們非常像一個財富管理者。這就是我們所做的。他們是財富管理人的組合，有些人對本地業務有更大的敞口，通常伴隨著本地業務的更大規模，因此，成本/收入比也更低。

But Sarah, anything to add?

但是莎拉，有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, we -- just obviously, this is also reflecting the level of investments that we are making in the region. And so as you see us addressing both the revenue as well as the expense, both in the investment side wallet share as well as the banking wallet share, and on the cost side, both our strategic and tactical, we certainly plan to improve. But it will take some time for the mix to start becoming more in line with what you are seeing in some of the peers that you're comparing to.

不，我們 - 很明顯，這也反映了我們在該地區的投資水平。因此，當你看到我們同時解決收入和支出問題時，無論是投資方面的錢包份額還是銀行錢包份額，以及成本方面，我們的戰略和戰術，我們當然計劃改進。但是需要一些時間才能使組合開始變得更加符合您在所比較的某些同行中看到的情況。

The next question is from Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Benjamin Goy。

Just one major question left from my side. We had 95% payout in 2022. I was wondering whether we should think about just below full payout as well for this year and this is the main determining factor on how large the buyback can be.

我身邊只剩下一個主要問題。我們在 2022 年支付了 95%。我想知道我們是否應該考慮今年也略低於全額支付，這是回購規模的主要決定因素。

Thank you, Benjamin. Thank you for trying again as well. But as you know, we have a very capital-generative model. Certainly, in an uncertain environment for us, the first priority is to have a strong balance sheet. And the second priority is that where we see growth that we can actually support that growth using capital as well. The third priority is that we have a dividend that we want to increase progressively in order to have a good mix between dividends and also share buyback.

謝謝你，本傑明。也感謝您再次嘗試。但正如你所知，我們有一個非常能產生資本的模型。當然，在我們不確定的環境中，首要任務是擁有強大的資產負債表。第二個優先事項是，在我們看到增長的地方，我們實際上也可以使用資本來支持這種增長。第三個優先事項是我們希望逐步增加股息，以便在股息和股票回購之間實現良好的組合。

But since we feel we are undervalued, we find the buyback even more important, and therefore, we came out with this guidance that we have given. And again, I can't give you more than what we have given, which is the over $5 billion that we're confident with. And clearly, as the year progresses and there is further progress on it and we can update you on it as to where we are we think where this is going, we will certainly do so.

但由於我們覺得自己被低估了，我們發現回購更為重要，因此，我們提出了我們給出的指導意見。再一次，我不能給你比我們給的更多，這是我們有信心的超過 50 億美元。很明顯，隨著時間的推移和它的進一步進展，我們可以向您更新我們的進展情況，我們認為這將走向何方，我們一定會這樣做。

The next question is from Nicolas Payen from Kepler Cheuvreux.

下一個問題來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Nicolas Payen。

I have 2 on Wealth Management. The first one, more on APAC, and we can see that your number of adviser is decreasing despite China reopening and probably a higher level of activity expected. So I wanted to know, how do you intend to capture this higher level of activity with potentially less advisers?

我有 2 個關於財富管理的。第一個，更多關於亞太地區，我們可以看到儘管中國重新開放，但您的顧問數量正在減少，並且可能預期活動水平更高。所以我想知道，你打算如何用可能更少的顧問來捕捉這種更高水平的活動？

And the second one is on the U.S. I'd like to know if it's possible to get a bit of color regarding the breakdown of your net inflows between an increase of share of wallet from existing clients versus new clients coming in at UBS U.S. Wealth Management.

第二個是關於美國的。我想知道是否有可能對現有客戶的錢包份額增加與瑞銀美國財富管理的新客戶之間的淨流入細目有所了解.

Thank you, Nicolas. So on the first one, we're not really kind of after a specific adviser count, so to say. For us, it is important that the advice that we have, they have the right clients, they have client -- there's right client relationships, they can increase the share of wallet. The productivity of each adviser is important to us as well, and that is what we truly manage on.

謝謝你，尼古拉斯。所以在第一個方面，我們並不是真正關注特定的顧問數量，可以這麼說。對我們來說，重要的是我們擁有的建議，他們有合適的客戶，他們有客戶 - 有正確的客戶關係，他們可以增加錢包份額。每個顧問的工作效率對我們也很重要，這才是我們真正做到的。

And we feel that with the current level of advisers, and we continue to optimize that and clearly manage for performance and pay for performance, that we can certainly cope with some of the upside there. And clearly, we will continue to hire the right advisers as we have been doing up to now, and we will continue to do so also going forward.

我們認為，以目前的顧問水平，我們繼續優化並明確管理績效和支付績效，我們當然可以應對那裡的一些上行空間。很明顯，我們將繼續聘請合適的顧問，就像我們迄今為止所做的那樣，我們也將繼續這樣做。

And on your question for the U.S., you can think of the inflows for this quarter as being about half-half related to net recruiting versus same store, and same store usually is exactly with the same clients. So that gives you a sense.

關於美國的問題，您可以認為本季度的流入與淨招聘相關，而與同一家商店的淨招聘相關，而同一家商店通常與相同的客戶完全相同。所以這給了你一個感覺。

The next question is from Piers Brown from HSBC.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Piers Brown。

Yes, I've got one on Global Wealth and one on litigation. So Global Wealth, actually just to follow on from the previous question, but in terms of the U.S. adviser numbers, I think you talked last quarter about having a strong hiring pipeline, but actually the adviser numbers look like they've dipped in the fourth quarter. So if you could just talk to what the hiring plan looks like for this year in the U.S. on the adviser front?

是的，我有一份關於全球財富，一份關於訴訟。所以全球財富，實際上只是為了繼續上一個問題，但就美國顧問的數量而言，我想你上個季度談到了擁有強大的招聘渠道，但實際上顧問的數量看起來像是在第四季度有所下降四分之一。那麼，您是否可以談談今年美國顧問方面的招聘計劃？

And the second question, on litigation. The French tax case, it looks like the wording in the 4Q report is pretty much identical to the 3Q report. Is there any update on timing at all on that particular issue?

第二個問題，關於訴訟。法國稅務案例，看起來 4Q 報告中的措辭與 3Q 報告幾乎相同。關於該特定問題的時間安排是否有任何更新？

Yes. On the second one, so what you have read is what you have read, and that is what we disclosed. And I can't give you more color there. Otherwise, it would have been in the disclosure anyway. So you read it well, Piers.

是的。關於第二個，所以你讀到的就是你讀到的，這就是我們披露的。我不能給你更多的顏色。否則，它無論如何都會被披露。所以你讀得很好，皮爾斯。

On the first one, also there, we have a -- we will continue to recruit in the U.S. It's just that in the last year, when the markets were so high, we basically held back on recruitment in the first quarter and also the second quarter a bit. Because with every recruitment, you basically -- I mean you have to pay for the business they bring.

在第一個問題上，我們有一個——我們將繼續在美國招聘。只是在去年，當市場如此之高時，我們基本上在第一季度和第二季度都停止了招聘四分之一。因為每次招聘，你基本上——我的意思是你必須為他們帶來的業務付費。

So at that moment, we held back a bit and then we accelerated the recruitment, and we will continue the recruitment of FAs in the U.S. As I said, it's very important for us to get the FAs that come in at the level of productivity that is basically the market bench for us, right? So we are a market leader in terms of FA productivity. We want to keep it at that level as well. And therefore, we have to continue to kind of train our FAs, support them as well on one side; but in the other side, also recruit new FAs that come in with a higher productivity level, that come in with the higher wealth clients and that are in areas where we expect the wealth growth to be the fastest; so with that, therefore, also deliver that productivity.

所以在那一刻，我們有所保留，然後我們加快了招聘速度，我們將繼續在美國招聘 FA。正如我所說，讓 FA 進來的生產力水平對我們來說非常重要基本上是我們的市場板凳，對吧？因此，我們在 FA 生產力方面處於市場領先地位。我們也希望將其保持在該水平。因此，我們必須繼續培訓我們的 FA，一方面也支持他們；但另一方面，也招募新的 FAs，這些 FAs 具有更高的生產力水平，具有更高的財富客戶，並且在我們預計財富增長最快的地區；因此，因此，也可以提供這種生產力。

So no specific plans other than continuing to further improve the FA productivity, as we have been doing over the last couple of years. And actually, over the last couple of years, you've seen our FA count going down, while productivity continued -- overall productivity continue to be at least the same level, and that's where you saw that shift towards higher net worth individual clients, a higher productive FAs in geographies where we expect wealth to grow as well. And that is basically a campaign that we'll continue to run.

因此，除了像過去幾年我們一直在做的那樣繼續進一步提高 FA 生產力之外，沒有具體的計劃。事實上，在過去的幾年裡，你已經看到我們的 FA 數量下降，而生產力繼續 - 整體生產力繼續至少保持相同水平，這就是你看到轉向更高淨值個人客戶的地方，在我們預計財富也會增長的地區，生產率更高的 FA。這基本上是我們將繼續開展的一項活動。

Okay. In absence of further questions, let me thank you for being with us this morning. As Sarah and I noted, we delivered good results this year and continued to show our strategy performance well across the cycle. It was by no means an easy year, but it was a year of many achievements and strong execution across the regions. And I think that our pledge to stay very close to our clients, make sure that we can advise them through challenging times as well that, that creates the momentum that you have seen also in the fourth quarter and throughout the whole year.

好的。在沒有其他問題的情況下，讓我感謝你今天早上和我們在一起。正如莎拉和我指出的那樣，我們今年取得了不錯的成績，並在整個週期內繼續展示我們的戰略績效。這絕不是輕鬆的一年，但卻是各地區取得許多成就和強大執行力的一年。而且我認為我們承諾與客戶保持密切聯繫，確保我們也能在充滿挑戰的時期為他們提供建議，這創造了您在第四季度和全年也看到的勢頭。

Now while macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain, our strategy and what differentiates us as UBS is clear. We're the only truly global wealth manager. We have outstanding client franchises. We have geographic diversification, which is very helpful. We underpin all of that by disciplined risk management, also disciplined cost management. That's what you have seen over the last couple of years as well with our savings program and executing on that savings program and actually increasing the savings program now as well.

現在，儘管宏觀經濟前景仍不明朗，但我們的戰略以及我們作為瑞銀的與眾不同之處是明確的。我們是唯一一家真正的全球財富管理機構。我們擁有出色的客戶特許經營權。我們有地域多元化，這非常有幫助。我們通過嚴格的風險管理和嚴格的成本管理來支持所有這些。這就是你在過去幾年中看到的，以及我們的儲蓄計劃和執行該儲蓄計劃，實際上現在也增加了儲蓄計劃。

Our capital position is strong. Our balance sheet is healthy, and that puts us at a great position to serve our clients, deliver strong capital returns to our shareholders in the next year as well.

我們的資本狀況雄厚。我們的資產負債表是健康的，這使我們處於為客戶服務的有利位置，並在明年為我們的股東帶來豐厚的資本回報。

Thank you very much, and see you next quarter.

非常感謝，下個季度見。

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast and Q&A session for analysts and investors is over. You may disconnect your lines. We will now take a short break and continue with media Q&A session at 9:45 U.K., 10:45 CET.

女士們，先生們，面向分析師和投資者的網絡直播和問答環節已經結束。您可以斷開線路。我們現在稍作休息，繼續在英國時間 9 點 45 分、歐洲中部時間 10 點 45 分舉行媒體問答環節。