UBS Group AG (UBS) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to the UBS Third Quarter 2022 Results Presentation. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. (Operator Instructions).

女士們，先生們，早上好。歡迎觀看瑞銀 2022 年第三季度業績報告。不得為出版或廣播錄製會議。 （操作員說明）。

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Sarah Mackey, UBS Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.

此時，我很高興將工作交給 UBS 投資者關係部門的 Sarah Mackey。請繼續，女士。

Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement slide at the back of today's results presentation. Please also refer to the risk factors in our 2021 annual report, together with additional disclosures in our SEC filings.

早上好，歡迎大家。在我們開始之前，我想提請您注意今天結果演示文稿後面的警示性聲明幻燈片。另請參閱我們 2021 年年度報告中的風險因素，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的額外披露。

On Slide 2, you can see our agenda for today. It's now my pleasure to hand over to Ralph Hamers, Group CEO.

在幻燈片 2 上，您可以看到我們今天的議程。現在我很高興將工作交給集團首席執行官拉爾夫·哈默斯。

Thank you, Sarah. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to share good results with you for this quarter amid significant macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, we executed with discipline. We delivered EUR 1.7 billion in net profit and our return on CET1 capital was 15.5% Our capital position remains strong with a CET1 ratio of 14.4%, as you can see. And we managed costs well, leading to a cost/income ratio of 71.8% and our balance sheet for all seasons and strong risk management continued to be an asset for our clients and the investors.

謝謝你，莎拉。大家，早安。在宏觀經濟和地緣政治存在重大不確定性的情況下，我很高興與您分享本季度的良好業績，我們嚴格執行。我們實現了 17 億歐元的淨利潤，我們的 CET1 資本回報率為 15.5% 正如您所見，我們的資本狀況依然強勁，CET1 比率為 14.4%。我們對成本進行了很好的管理，成本/收入比率為 71.8%，我們所有季節的資產負債表和強大的風險管理繼續成為我們客戶和投資者的資產。

Turning to the next slide, where you have the overall overview of the commercial momentum. This quarter, I spent a lot of time with clients across the globe, and their feedback was really consistent. They're concerned about inflation, about the energy prices, the war in Ukraine, residual effects from the pandemic, economies are slowing down, central banks are raising rates at record pace, and that's affecting asset levels. It's affecting market volatility and investor sentiment across the globe as well and we expect this to continue at least through the end of the year.

轉到下一張幻燈片，您可以在其中全面了解商業勢頭。本季度，我花了很多時間與全球客戶打交道，他們的反饋非常一致。他們擔心通貨膨脹、能源價格、烏克蘭戰爭、大流行的殘餘影響、經濟放緩、央行以創紀錄的速度加息，這正在影響資產水平。它也在影響全球市場波動和投資者情緒，我們預計這種情況至少會持續到今年年底。

Client activity has been differentiated across segments. Institutional clients remain very active on the back of high volatility of foreign exchange and rates. The private investors generally remain on the sidelines waiting for signs of improvement.

不同細分市場的客戶活動有所不同。在外彙和利率高波動的背景下，機構客戶仍然非常活躍。私人投資者普遍保持觀望，等待好轉跡象。

In all cases, our teams have stayed close to our clients, providing them with advice and solutions. And you can see the snapshot here on this slide.

在所有情況下，我們的團隊都與客戶保持密切聯繫，為他們提供建議和解決方案。您可以在這張幻燈片的此處看到快照。

We have private clients seeking opportunities to protect and grow their wealth. They diversified their portfolio through mandate solutions and made additional commitments to private markets. And as a result, for need for guidance, which we gave, we saw EUR 17 billion in net new fee-generating assets coming in through the quarter.

我們有私人客戶尋求機會來保護和增加他們的財富。他們通過授權解決方案使投資組合多樣化，並對私募市場做出額外承諾。因此，由於需要我們提供的指導，我們看到本季度新增收費資產淨額為 170 億歐元。

Wealth Management clients are seeking higher-yielding products on the back of higher interest rates. We're capturing this demand through savings through CDs and money market funds and half of the EUR 16 billion of net new money coming in through asset management in money markets. So I have the EUR 16 billion in money markets. So EUR 8 billion is actually coming from GWM clients.

財富管理客戶在利率上升的背景下尋求更高收益的產品。我們通過 CD 和貨幣市場基金儲蓄以及通過貨幣市場資產管理流入的 160 億歐元淨新資金中的一半來滿足這種需求。所以我在貨幣市場上有 160 億歐元。所以 80 億歐元實際上來自長城汽車的客戶。

We also continue to actively manage our deposit offering and optimize net interest income, and that's where we saw a 14% growth year-on-year in our deposit-taking businesses.

我們還繼續積極管理我們的存款產品並優化淨利息收入，這就是我們的存款業務同比增長 14% 的原因。

In lending, we've seen our clients deleveraging Lombard loans, specifically in Asia Pacific, but we saw demand for mortgages in Switzerland and the U.S. The net impact is a loan book that was flat this quarter, excluding foreign exchange.

在貸款方面，我們看到我們的客戶去槓桿化 Lombard 貸款，特別是在亞太地區，但我們看到瑞士和美國的抵押貸款需求。淨影響是本季度持平的貸款賬目，不包括外匯。

And as I mentioned, institutional clients continue to trade actively, and that resulted in a lot of strong performance for Global Markets, given our mix and geographic footprint. We benefited from foreign exchange and rates volatility, which resulted in the FRC revenues being up 64%, but were impacted by equities being down.

正如我所提到的，機構客戶繼續積極交易，鑑於我們的組合和地理足跡，這為全球市場帶來了很多強勁的表現。我們受益於外彙和利率波動，導致 FRC 收入增長 64%，但受到股票下跌的影響。

And I think this shows our ability and flexibility to deploy resources across the asset classes. And that shows the value of the way we are organized.

我認為這顯示了我們跨資產類別部署資源的能力和靈活性。這顯示了我們組織方式的價值。

It also kind of shows that our technology investments, specifically in electronic FX are supporting a record quarter in e-FX as well.

這也表明我們的技術投資，特別是在電子外匯方面的投資，也支持電子外匯創紀錄的季度。

As you can see, consistent execution of our strategy is driving organic growth despite volatile market conditions.

正如您所看到的，儘管市場環境動盪，但我們戰略的持續執行正在推動有機增長。

Now moving to the more regional picture. That's basically where the execution of our strategy towards our clients really comes together in the U.S. The economy is holding up relatively better than other regions. Consumer balance sheet and economic well employment data are solid. But inflation remains high. As a result, we project fat funds to be at 5% to 5.25% and such elevated rates increased the risk of recession.

現在轉向更具區域性的畫面。這基本上是我們對客戶的戰略執行在美國真正匯集在一起的地方。經濟比其他地區相對更好。消費者資產負債表和經濟就業數據穩健。但通脹仍然居高不下。因此，我們預計豐厚資金的利率為 5% 至 5.25%，而如此高的利率增加了經濟衰退的風險。

Interest rate hikes have reduced asset levels and muted client activity as well, but they have supported net interest income, which is up 38% year-over-year. So that's on the U.S. and wealth management specifically there.

加息降低了資產水平，也抑制了客戶活動，但它們支撐了淨利息收入，同比增長 38%。所以這是關於美國和財富管理的。

Demand for separately managed accounts and alternatives continue to drive inflows. That fueled over EUR 4 billion of net new fee-generating assets, mostly from our existing financial adviser base.

對獨立管理賬戶和替代品的需求繼續推動資金流入。這推動了超過 40 億歐元的淨新收費資產，主要來自我們現有的財務顧問群。

We also had a strong quarter in advisory recruiting and our hiring pipeline remains strong as well for the fourth quarter, and that should support our flows also through the fourth quarter and beyond.

我們在諮詢招聘方面也有一個強勁的季度，我們的招聘渠道在第四季度也保持強勁，這也應該支持我們在第四季度及以後的流動。

These hires and align our commitment to drive scale and improve the GWM Americas cost/income ratio, which was below 80% this quarter. So you see the scale coming through there. We remain firmly committed to our U.S. growth strategy, which is focused on personally advised clients. We will also continue to develop digital solutions with remote advice within our existing technology budget.

這些員工的加入與我們推動規模和提高 GWM Americas 成本/收入比率的承諾保持一致，該比率本季度低於 80%。所以你看到規模通過那裡。我們仍然堅定地致力於我們的美國增長戰略，該戰略專注於個人建議的客戶。我們還將在現有技術預算範圍內繼續開髮帶有遠程建議的數字解決方案。

Now moving to Switzerland. Our economy is expected to narrowly avoid a recession due to relatively lower inflation and limited dependence on Russian gas. That said, many of our Swiss retail and small business clients will also be impacted by disruptions across the rest of Europe, and we are focusing on supporting them through the energy crisis. The stability of our business in Switzerland is, by the way, demonstrated by a continued solid growth, EUR 2 billion in net new loans, EUR 2 billion in net new deposits and EUR 400 million in net new investment products a real solid performance in Switzerland.

現在搬到瑞士。由於相對較低的通脹和對俄羅斯天然氣的依賴有限，預計我們的經濟將勉強避免衰退。也就是說，我們的許多瑞士零售和小型企業客戶也將受到歐洲其他地區中斷的影響，我們正專注於支持他們度過能源危機。順便說一下，我們在瑞士業務的穩定性體現在持續穩健的增長，20 億歐元的淨新增貸款、20 億歐元的淨新增存款和 4 億歐元的淨新增投資產品——瑞士真正穩健的表現.

Now moving to EMEA. That's where the macroeconomic and geopolitical requirements is having the most significant impact, as you can imagine. Clients turn to us as indicated earlier, for advice in these uncertain and unprecedented times, and the net fee generating assets on the back of that increased by more than EUR 6 billion in EMEA.

現在轉移到 EMEA。正如您可以想像的那樣，這就是宏觀經濟和地緣政治要求產生最重大影響的地方。如前所述，在這些不確定且前所未有的時期，客戶轉向我們尋求建議，因此在歐洲、中東和非洲地區產生的淨費用資產增加了超過 60 億歐元。

We also completed the sale of our Spanish business and also the SFA Wealth Management business in Switzerland and have further optimized our footprint. And as you know, we are looking at further improvement of efficiency and profitable growth in EMEA as part of our strategy, and we're delivering it this quarter again.

我們還完成了西班牙業務和瑞士 SFA 財富管理業務的出售，進一步優化了我們的足跡。如您所知，作為我們戰略的一部分，我們正在考慮進一步提高 EMEA 的效率和盈利增長，我們將在本季度再次實現這一目標。

Lastly, Asia Pacific, we continue to believe that there is attractive structural long-term growth prospects in the region. But the short term, it is clear that our clients are dealing with COVID-related restrictions still that's delaying recovery also in the property sector. We think there is a path back to 5% economic growth in China and Asia Pacific as a whole at some point next year. But the question is really about timing.

最後，在亞太地區，我們仍然相信該地區具有誘人的結構性長期增長前景。但從短期來看，很明顯，我們的客戶仍在處理與 COVID 相關的限制，這仍在延遲房地產行業的複蘇。我們認為明年某個時候中國和整個亞太地區的經濟增長有可能回到 5%。但問題實際上是關於時機。

We expect these dynamics will restrict our clients' willingness to take on leverage. And also, it will limit their willingness to transact at least through the end of this year.

我們預計這些動態將限制我們客戶利用槓桿的意願。而且，這將限制他們至少在今年年底之前進行交易的意願。

And that said, they continue to look for us for diversification and investment expertise. And as a result, we saw another strong quarter in net new fee-generating assets also in this region with EUR 7 billion of inflows.

也就是說，他們繼續尋找我們的多元化和投資專業知識。結果，我們在該地區看到了另一個強勁的淨新收費資產季度，流入量為 70 億歐元。

Our annualized net new fee-generating assets growth rates in Asia Pacific is actually 12% year-to-date. In Asia Pacific's primary markets, we outperformed fee pools and took market share. We claimed the #1 position in equity capital markets for nondomestic banks and that 3 of the top 4 equity raises in Asia Pacific including Hong Kong's largest IPO in over a year.

年初至今，我們在亞太地區的年化淨新收費資產增長率實際上為 12%。在亞太地區的主要市場，我們的表現優於費用池並佔據了市場份額。我們在非本地銀行的股權資本市場中排名第一，亞太地區前 4 大股權融資中的 3 項，包括香港一年多來最大的首次公開募股。

So in summary, all of the regions are faced with complex macro geopolitical environments, but we're clearly showing to be very focused on supporting our clients and be very flexible in the way we allocate our resources across the investment bank as well and using our global footprint and diverse capabilities to continue to add value for our clients.

因此，總而言之，所有地區都面臨著複雜的宏觀地緣政治環境，但我們清楚地表明，我們非常專注於支持我們的客戶，並且在我們跨投資銀行分配資源的方式上非常靈活，並利用我們的全球足跡和多樣化的能力，以繼續為我們的客戶增加價值。

Turning to Slide 6 here for you. That demonstrates how the consistent execution of our strategy has delivered a good financial quarter. Net profit at EUR 1.7 billion, return on CET1 capital at 15.5%. Cost-income ratio as earlier mentioned at 71.8%. Of course, we will continue to be focused on efficiency and expenses and our cost discipline will further intensify as we fight inflationary pressures, and we prepare for tougher times to come.

在這里為您轉到幻燈片 6。這證明了我們戰略的一致執行如何帶來了良好的財務季度。淨利潤為 17 億歐元，CET1 資本回報率為 15.5%。如前所述，成本收入比為 71.8%。當然，我們將繼續關注效率和費用，我們的成本紀律將在抗擊通脹壓力的過程中進一步加強，並為即將到來的艱難時期做好準備。

Turning to Slide 7. Given the environment that we're in, we felt it was important to give you a peak into the position of strength that we have facing some of these uncertainties. Our capital ratios remain well above our target levels at 14.4% in CET1 capital. We continue to operate with a significant amount of liquidity to support our clients and meet regulatory requirements as well. Our balance sheet for all seasons is supported by a high-quality loan book, 95% of our loans are collateralized and the average loan-to-value is less than 55%. We have a model that uses limited credit risk and has a high capital generative character. And with that, we remain confident in our ability to deliver attractive and sustainable capital returns to shareholders.

轉到幻燈片 7。鑑於我們所處的環境，我們認為重要的是讓您了解我們面臨的一些不確定性的優勢地位。我們的 CET1 資本比率仍遠高於我們的目標水平 14.4%。我們繼續以大量流動資金運營，以支持我們的客戶並滿足監管要求。我們所有季節的資產負債表都有高質量的貸款賬簿支持，我們 95% 的貸款都有抵押，平均貸款價值比低於 55%。我們有一個使用有限信用風險並具有高資本生成特徵的模型。因此，我們仍然相信我們有能力為股東提供有吸引力和可持續的資本回報。

So to summarize, we delivered a good performance in the quarter. Our capital-light model, our global diversification, the balance sheet for all seasons continue to be a real competitive advantage.

總而言之，我們在本季度表現出色。我們的輕資本模式、我們的全球多元化、四季皆宜的資產負債表繼續成為真正的競爭優勢。

In the first 9 months of the year, we consistently executed with discipline, performed in line with our targets every quarter and that gives us also confidence in our ability to meet our return on CET1 and cost/income ratio targets for the full year on a reported and also underlying basis.

在今年的前 9 個月，我們始終遵守紀律，每個季度的表現都符合我們的目標，這也讓我們相信我們有能力實現全年的 CET1 回報率和成本/收入比目標報告和潛在的基礎。

With that, Sarah, over to you.

有了這個，莎拉，交給你了。

Thank you, Ralph. Good morning, everyone. We delivered a good set of results while maintaining a balance sheet for all seasons and against a complex market backdrop. Net profit in the quarter was $1.7 billion. Ralph just walked you through the reported profitability with return on CET1 of 15.5% and a cost/income ratio of 71.8%. Our underlying profitability was not very different.

謝謝你，拉爾夫。大家，早安。在復雜的市場背景下，我們在所有季節保持資產負債表的同時取得了良好的業績。本季度淨利潤為 17 億美元。拉爾夫剛剛向您介紹了報告的盈利能力，CET1 回報率為 15.5%，成本/收入比率為 71.8%。我們的潛在盈利能力並沒有太大不同。

Slide 23 in the appendix walks through the items, which are the same in nature as last quarter. Total revenue was down 10% against 6% lower expense. FX impacted both by $300 million for a net effect of around $50 million. The net credit loss release was $3 million compared to a $14 million release last year, reflecting great stability in our credit metrics and strong risk management.

附錄中的幻燈片 23 介紹了與上一季度性質相同的項目。總收入下降 10%，而費用下降 6%。外匯對兩者均產生了 3 億美元的影響，淨效應約為 5000 萬美元。淨信用損失釋放為 300 萬美元，而去年為 1400 萬美元，反映出我們信用指標的高度穩定性和強大的風險管理。

On Slide 10, the macroeconomic environment reflected depressed equity and fixed income markets, low levels of client activity, subdued M&A and capital markets and higher rates. Our revenue story mirrors the same themes with underlying revenue ex FX, down 7%. We had lower asset-based and transaction fees, lower global banking revenue, but higher combined NII in GWM and P&C. Global Market revenue was broadly flat against a very strong prior year quarter.

在幻燈片 10 中，宏觀經濟環境反映出低迷的股票和固定收益市場、低水平的客戶活動、低迷的併購和資本市場以及較高的利率。我們的收入故事反映了相同的主題，即不包括外彙的基礎收入下降了 7%。我們的資產基礎費用和交易費用較低，全球銀行收入較低，但 GWM 和 P&C 的綜合 NII 較高。全球市場收入與去年同期非常強勁的情況相比基本持平。

Now moving to NII on Page 11. The drivers of NII have been consistent over the course of this year with a strong benefit from rates, which you see in the first bar on the chart. Our actual deposit betas were better than we modeled. The rate impact was partially offset, as you see, by deposit volume and mix.

現在轉到第 11 頁上的 NII。NII 的驅動因素在今年的過程中一直保持一致，並從圖表的第一個欄中看到了利率的強大優勢。我們的實際存款貝塔比我們建模的要好。如您所見，存款量和組合部分抵消了利率影響。

On volume, next bar on the chart, the impact was driven by GWM, where deposits decreased by $23 billion last quarter and $13 billion this quarter, both in line with peers. FX accounted for almost half of the $13 billion decrease.

就交易量而言，圖表上的下一個柱狀圖受到長城汽車的影響，上季度存款減少 230 億美元，本季度減少 130 億美元，均與同行一致。在 130 億美元的減少中，外匯幾乎佔了一半。

And regarding mix, we saw clients move from sweeps and current accounts into other UBS deposit products. In this quarter, on a net basis, we retained effectively all these assets within UBS, including over 60% in deposit products and another 25% in our own money market funds.

關於組合，我們看到客戶從掃描和活期賬戶轉向其他瑞銀存款產品。在本季度，按淨額計算，我們有效地將所有這些資產保留在瑞銀內部，包括超過 60% 的存款產品和另外 25% 的我們自己的貨幣市場基金。

So overall, for this quarter, NII was up $223 million or 14% year-on-year. The U.S. dollar increase in NII was 41%, but it was partially offset by a reduction in Swiss franc due to lower SNB benefit and deposit fees.

因此，總體而言，本季度 NII 同比增長 2.23 億美元或 14%。 NII 的美元增長 41%，但由於瑞士央行福利和存款費用較低，瑞士法郎減少部分抵消了這一增長。

Looking ahead, based on the reports, we expect approximately $200 million incremental NII in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter of which 2/3 in GWM and 1/3 in P&C. This would lead to a total increase of $1 billion in 2022 versus last year. We expect 2023 NII to be higher than 4Q '22 annualized given our exposure to Swiss franc and euro and no further SNB and deposit fee impacts. Our USD NII is expected to peak in 4Q '22 or at the beginning of 2023.

展望未來，根據報告，我們預計第四季度的 NII 增量約為 2 億美元，而第三季度為 GWM 的 2/3 和 P&C 的 1/3。這將導致 2022 年總計比去年增加 10 億美元。鑑於我們對瑞士法郎和歐元的敞口，並且沒有進一步的 SNB 和存款費用影響，我們預計 2023 年 NII 將高於 22 年第四季度。我們的美元 NII 預計將在 22 年第四季度或 2023 年初達到頂峰。

Now turning to costs on Page 12. This quarter's operating expense was down 6% year-on-year. Excluding litigation and FX, the number was down 1%, with inflationary pressures on salaries, T&E technology and consulting costs offset by variable compensation.

現在轉到第 12 頁的成本。本季度的運營費用同比下降 6%。不包括訴訟和外匯，這一數字下降了 1%，工資、T&E 技術和諮詢成本的通脹壓力被可變薪酬所抵消。

Year-to-date, on the chart on the left, expense was down 1% or up 1% ex-litigation and FX. If you also exclude variable comp, expense was up 3%.

年初至今，在左邊的圖表中，費用下降了 1% 或上升了 1%（不包括訴訟和外匯）。如果你還排除可變補償，費用上升了 3%。

For the full year, we see expense ex-litigation and FX, up around 1% year-on-year. We are on track to deliver an incremental $400 million in '22 as part of our program to deliver $1 billion cross sales by 2023 as announced last year. We are laser focused on costs. And in the context of the current environment, we have put in place specific measures regarding noncritical hiring, T&E, consulting and tech prioritization.

就全年而言，我們看到除訴訟費用和外匯費用同比增長約 1%。作為去年宣布的到 2023 年實現 10 億美元交叉銷售額計劃的一部分，我們有望在 22 年交付 4 億美元的增量。我們非常關注成本。在當前環境的背景下，我們已經制定了關於非關鍵招聘、T&E、諮詢和技術優先排序的具體措施。

Let's move to our businesses on Page 13, starting with GWM. GWM profit before tax in the quarter was $1.5 billion, down 4% against a record 3Q '21. It was down 10% FX and gains on sales in 3Q '22 and 3Q '21.

讓我們轉到第 13 頁的業務，從 GWM 開始。長城汽車本季度稅前利潤為 15 億美元，較 21 年第三季度創紀錄的水平下降 4%。它在 22 年第 3 季度和 21 年第 3 季度的銷售額下跌了 10%，並實現了銷售額增長。

Revenue was 4% lower than last year as market headwinds continue to challenge our asset-based and transaction revenue in all regions. These headwinds were partially offset by net interest income which was up 23% year-on-year and up 8% sequentially as we continue to actively manage deposits across margins, volumes and mix.

由於市場逆風繼續挑戰我們在所有地區的基於資產的收入和交易收入，收入比去年下降了 4%。這些不利因素被淨利息收入部分抵消，淨利息收入同比增長 23%，環比增長 8%，因為我們繼續積極管理利潤率、數量和組合的存款。

The operating expense ex-litigation and FX was down 2% versus last year. This demonstrates our strong cost control that allowed us to deliver a cost income ratio of less than 70% in GWM and less than 80% in Americas.

與去年相比，訴訟前運營費用和外匯費用下降了 2%。這表明我們強大的成本控制使我們能夠在長城汽車實現低於 70% 的成本收入比，在美洲實現低於 80% 的成本收入比。

Net new fee-generating assets were $17 million in the quarter, a 5.5% annualized growth with positive flows into self-directed mandates, SMAs and alternatives. Ralph walked you through the strength we saw across the regions. And for the past 12 months, we attracted $64 billion of net new fee-generating assets, which represents around a 5% growth rate.

本季度淨新產生費用的資產為 1700 萬美元，年化增長率為 5.5%，正流入自主授權、SMA 和替代方案。拉爾夫向您展示了我們在各個地區看到的實力。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們吸引了 640 億美元的淨新收費資產，增長率約為 5%。

Net new lending in 3Q was negative $1 billion, driven by deleveraging in APAC. However, we saw continued growth in Americas and Switzerland.

受亞太地區去槓桿化的推動，第三季度淨新增貸款為負 10 億美元。然而，我們看到美洲和瑞士的持續增長。

Looking ahead, while client sentiment is likely to remain muted in the fourth quarter, our existing pipeline will be supportive of net new fee-generating assets.

展望未來，雖然第四季度客戶情緒可能保持低迷，但我們現有的管道將支持淨新的收費資產。

Moving to Asset Management on Page 14 with a profit before tax of $140 million. Total revenues decreased by 13% or 8% ex FX, with lower net management fees driven by market headwinds and lower performance fees. The cost/income ratio was 73% up year-on-year with lower revenue and expense broadly flat as we benefited from FX and continue to invest.

轉到第 14 頁的資產管理，稅前利潤為 1.4 億美元。總收入下降 13% 或 8%（不含外匯），淨管理費因市場逆風和績效費用下降而下降。由於我們受益於外匯並繼續投資，成本/收入比同比上升 73%，收入和支出基本持平。

As Ralph mentioned, net new money was strong in the quarter at $18 billion of which $16 million in money market funds with significant wins in the U.S. and EMEA.

正如拉爾夫提到的那樣，本季度淨新資金強勁，達到 180 億美元，其中 1600 萬美元來自貨幣市場基金，在美國和歐洲、中東和非洲地區取得了重大勝利。

Excluding money markets, net new money was $2 billion, driven by fixed income. Now on to Slide 15. DIB delivered $447 million in profit before tax and a 14% return on attributed equity. These are solid results considering our revenue mix and geographic footprint. Thanks to our capital-light business model, we can operate with a non-WA density of 30% compared to our estimates of around 50% for our U.S. peers.

不包括貨幣市場，在固定收益的推動下，淨新資金為 20 億美元。現在轉到幻燈片 15。DIB 實現了 4.47 億美元的稅前利潤和 14% 的歸屬股本回報率。考慮到我們的收入組合和地理足跡，這些都是可靠的結果。由於我們的輕資本商業模式，我們可以以 30% 的非 WA 密度運營，而我們對美國同行的估計約為 50%。

Revenue in Global Markets of $1.7 billion was down 1% or up 2% ex FX against a very strong prior year quarter. If you think about the environment, it was one where volatility in equities was lower than in FX and rates. And in that context, we had a record third quarter performance in eFX, FX, rates and prime brokerage, offset by reductions in equity derivatives and cash.

全球市場收入為 17 億美元，與去年同期非常強勁的表現相比下降 1% 或上升 2%（不含外匯）。如果你考慮一下環境，那是一個股票波動性低於外彙和利率的環境。在這種情況下，我們在電子外匯、外匯、利率和大宗經紀業務方面的第三季度業績創下歷史新高，但被股票衍生品和現金的減少所抵消。

Global Banking revenue was down 58% to $329 million in line with very low levels of industry activity across advisory and capital markets. The operating expense was up 3% ex-litigation and FX, largely driven by inflationary pressures on salaries and higher technology expense. On Page 16, moving to P&C, which had strong momentum and an 8 percentage point year-to-date increase in share of personal banking clients that are active mobile users. Profit before tax in the third quarter was CHF 430 million. Total revenue was broadly flat year-on-year as increases in recurring and transaction-based income were offset by lower NII. Transaction-based income increased 2% on higher revenue from FX and credit card transactions, reflecting higher spending, both on travel and domestic. Recurring net fee income was up 3% on the back of more than $2 billion of net new investment products over the past 12 months.

全球銀行業務收入下降 58% 至 3.29 億美元，這與諮詢和資本市場的行業活動水平非常低相一致。除訴訟和外匯外，運營費用增長了 3%，這主要是由於工資的通脹壓力和更高的技術費用。在第 16 頁，轉到 P&C，它勢頭強勁，今年迄今為止，活躍移動用戶的個人銀行客戶份額增長了 8 個百分點。第三季度稅前利潤為4.3億瑞士法郎。由於經常性和基於交易的收入的增加被較低的 NII 所抵消，總收入同比基本持平。由於外彙和信用卡交易收入增加，基於交易的收入增長了 2%，這反映出旅遊和國內支出的增加。在過去 12 個月超過 20 億美元的淨新投資產品的支持下，經常性淨費用收入增長了 3%。

For the quarter, in Personal Banking, net new investment products had an annualized growth rate of 8%. The credit loss release was $15 million compared with $6 million a year ago.

本季度，個人銀行業務淨新增投資產品年化增長率為8%。信貸損失釋放為 1500 萬美元，而一年前為 600 萬美元。

Cost ex-litigation were up 4% as we continue to make investments in technology to execute our digital strategy.

由於我們繼續投資於技術以執行我們的數字戰略，訴訟前成本上升了 4%。

Finally, on Page 17, we maintained a strong capital position this quarter, well above our guidance, while continuing to distribute capital according to our plans. As of the end of September, our CET1 capital ratio was 14.4%, and our CET1 leverage ratio was 4.51%.

最後，在第 17 頁，我們本季度保持了強勁的資本狀況，遠高於我們的指導，同時繼續根據我們的計劃分配資本。截至9月底，我們的普通股一級資本比率為14.4%，普通股一級槓桿率為4.51%。

Turning to the CET1 capital ratio walk, starting at 14.2% at the end of last quarter. Net profit contributed 60 basis points, partially offset by capital returns to our shareholders of around 40 basis points. The net currency effect was nil quarter-on-quarter as the FX impact on CET1 and RWA offset each other.

談到 CET1 資本比率，從上季度末的 14.2% 開始。淨利潤貢獻了 60 個基點，部分被股東的資本回報約 40 個基點所抵消。由於外匯對 CET1 和 RWA 的影響相互抵消，淨貨幣影響環比為零。

Our capital return story remains strong. We increased our dividend accrual from $0.51 to $0.55, a 10% year-on-year increase, and we are on track to buy back approximately $5.5 billion of shares for the full year.

我們的資本回報故事依然強勁。我們將應計股息從 0.51 美元增加到 0.55 美元，同比增長 10%，並且我們有望在全年回購約 55 億美元的股票。

In the first 9 months of the year, we have repurchased $4.3 billion. And as of last Friday, the number was $4.6 billion. This translates into a payout ratio of 94% year-to-date, including dividend accruals and buybacks.

今年前 9 個月，我們回購了 43 億美元。截至上週五，這個數字是 46 億美元。這意味著年初至今的派息率為 94%，包括應計股息和回購。

To conclude, while no one is immune to the macro environment, UBS is well positioned to face short-term challenges. We have strong capital, capital returns, diversification and limited credit risk. This is in addition to NII turns across currencies and expense flexibility. We are executing our strategy and focused on delivering consistent and attractive returns to shareholders.

總而言之，雖然沒有人能倖免於宏觀環境，但瑞銀已準備好應對短期挑戰。我們擁有雄厚的資本、資本回報、多元化和有限的信用風險。這是 NII 跨貨幣和費用靈活性的補充。我們正在執行我們的戰略，並專注於為股東提供一致且有吸引力的回報。

With that, let's open up for questions.

有了這個，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions). The first question comes from Stefan Stalmann from Autonomous Research.

（操作員說明）。第一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Stefan Stalmann。

I wanted to ask, please, on your cost guidance. You had previously said that cost might be up by 2% for the year on an FX-adjusted basis. Now you're saying it could be plus 1%. Could you maybe talk about what has changed? Have you reassessed variable compensation? Have you showed -- slowed your investment spending plans or anything else to consider? And the second question goes back to what you said about NII in 2023, Sarah. I missed what you said exactly. You talked about an annualization and that NII next year would be higher than an annualized number, but I missed the basis. Could you maybe repeat that for me?

我想問一下你的成本指導。您之前曾說過，在外匯調整的基礎上，今年的成本可能會上漲 2%。現在你說它可能是加 1%。你能談談發生了什麼變化嗎？您是否重新評估了可變薪酬？你有沒有表現出 - 放慢你的投資支出計劃或其他任何需要考慮的事情？第二個問題回到你所說的 2023 年 NII，Sarah。我完全錯過了你說的話。你談到了年化，明年的 NII 將高於年化數字，但我錯過了基礎。你能為我重複一遍嗎？

Sure. Stefan. Sarah, on cost?

當然。斯特凡。莎拉，收費嗎？

Yes. So on the cost, we gave the guidance that we would be up 1% ex FX and litigation and that is in line with where we are for year-to-date this year versus a year ago. In terms of the 2% guidance that you're referring to, this was done ex-variable comp. And on that basis, we are approximately at 3%. And we will expect to continue to work on being below 3%, so with 200, but still rounding to 3%. And what's happening here is that you're seeing very strong cost discipline with the reported ex-FX and ex-litigation story. And you're seeing that we're managing the entire cost base, but we're, of course, seeing some inflationary pressures that were higher than those that we were predicting at the time when we gave the guidance.

是的。因此，在成本方面，我們給出的指導是我們將在外彙和訴訟前增加 1%，這與我們今年迄今為止與一年前的情況一致。就您所指的 2% 指導而言，這是在不考慮變量的情況下完成的。在此基礎上，我們大約是 3%。我們將繼續努力使這一比例低於 3%，即 200，但仍四捨五入到 3%。這裡發生的事情是，你看到報告的 ex-FX 和 ex-litigation 故事非常嚴格的成本紀律。你看到我們正在管理整個成本基礎，但我們當然看到一些通脹壓力高於我們在提供指導時預測的通脹壓力。

Yes. And on NII, it's -- so literally, it's as follows. So we see uptick on NII dollar rates coming through, but euro and Swiss franc and pound rates coming through also in the fourth quarter.

是的。在 NII 上，它是——從字面上看，它如下所示。因此，我們看到 NII 美元利率上升，但歐元、瑞士法郎和英鎊利率也在第四季度上升。

And with that increasing our NII guidance there by another USD 200 million. And then how to look at that from a '23 perspective is that we are indicating that, that will continue -- the uplift there will continue in the different currencies, more so than in the U.S. dollar because we expect that to peak in the fourth quarter, maybe beginning of '23. And therefore, for '23, you should start thinking about the annualized number for the fourth quarter, so 4 times fourth quarter with upside. That's the way we guided.

隨著我們的 NII 指導增加 2 億美元。然後如何從 23 世紀的角度來看，我們表明，這將繼續 - 不同貨幣的上漲將繼續，而不是美元，因為我們預計這將在第四年達到頂峰季度，也許是 23 年初。因此，對於 23 年，你應該開始考慮第四季度的年化數字，所以第四季度有 4 倍的上升空間。這就是我們的指導方式。

Your next question is from Amit Goel from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Amit Goel。

I have one question on the NII guidance. Again, just to check. When we talk about the USD 200 million and the USD 1 billion next year, what kind of mix effects and/or deposit flow assumptions are in that? And then secondly, I'm just kind of curious, if you wouldn't mind just going into a bit more color in terms of the costs, which are the areas where maybe you've kind of hand in some of the spending, what impact that has and also how you're thinking about investment into Asia as well at present?

我有一個關於 NII 指南的問題。再次，只是為了檢查。當我們談論明年的 2 億美元和 10 億美元時，其中包含什麼樣的混合效應和/或存款流動假設？其次，我只是有點好奇，如果你不介意在成本方面多說一點，你可能會在這些領域投入一些支出，什麼影響以及您目前如何考慮對亞洲的投資？

So Sarah, can give you some more insights on NII. We kind of -- go ahead.

Sarah，可以給你一些關於 NII 的更多見解。我們有點 - 繼續。

So on the NII, and we already gave you a lot of information with guidance in the fourth quarter as well as additional directional guidance for 2023. And so if that's okay, we'll pick up with even more than that next quarter when we report earnings. But we feel that the exposure that we have with half of our balance sheet being in U.S. dollars, but the rest are not being in U.S. dollars. It gives us upside in those other currencies that is worth mentioning to you at this point.

因此，在 NII 上，我們已經為您提供了很多信息，包括第四季度的指導以及 2023 年的額外方向指導。所以如果沒關係，我們將在下個季度報告時提供更多信息收益。但是我們覺得我們的資產負債表的一半是美元，但其餘部分不是美元。它為我們提供了目前值得一提的其他貨幣的優勢。

Yes, on the cost and also in Asia specifically, but it's also on the cost. And what Sarah was indicating is that we are really focused on the cost side. We have been the whole year. Clearly, we had inflationary pressures that busy at the beginning of the year, nobody had foreseen. But nevertheless, we manage a tight ship here. And also in the fourth quarter, she was indicating that where we really want to be very clear, making sure that we don't impact the strategic investments nor that we don't impact the good cost, but that we are very strict on noncritical hires. So we continue hiring, but only for the critical hires because we want to hold back on some that we have to be more careful around T&E and consultancy costs as well. So it will not be kind of impacting the strategic projects at this moment in time and looking at further participation in the technology budget.

是的，關於成本，特別是在亞洲，但這也與成本有關。 Sarah 表示我們真正關注的是成本方面。我們已經整整一年了。顯然，我們在年初面臨著如此繁忙的通脹壓力，這是沒有人預見到的。但是，儘管如此，我們在這裡管理得很緊。同樣在第四季度，她表示我們真正想要非常清楚的地方，確保我們不會影響戰略投資，也不會影響良好的成本，但我們對非關鍵性非常嚴格僱用。因此，我們繼續招聘，但僅限於關鍵員工，因為我們想保留一些我們必須更加小心的 T&E 和諮詢成本。因此，這不會及時影響戰略項目，也不會考慮進一步參與技術預算。

So those are the 4 areas we're very much focused on. Then into your question around Asia. Now Asia, we know always go through bigger downturns and upturns than anywhere, but the underlying current is always positive. And specifically, if you look at it from a wealth pool perspective and a wealth pool development perspective, and that's the underlying basis for our strategy in Asia Pacific. We expect this to grow over time anywhere between 5% to 9%. So it is an area where we want to continue to grow where we see USD 7 billion of net new fee-generating assets just for the quarter. We expect some of that flows to continue as well. So it's an important region for us to continue to invest in the wealth business as well.

所以這些是我們非常關注的 4 個領域。然後進入你關於亞洲的問題。現在亞洲，我們知道總是經歷比任何地方都大的衰退和好轉，但潛在的趨勢總是積極的。具體來說，如果你從財富池的角度和財富池發展的角度來看，這就是我們在亞太地區戰略的基礎。我們預計隨著時間的推移，這一比例將增長 5% 至 9%。因此，這是一個我們希望繼續增長的領域，我們僅在本季度就看到了 70 億美元的淨新收費資產。我們預計其中一些流量也會繼續。因此，這也是我們繼續投資財富業務的重要地區。

Sorry, can I just follow up just, Sarah, just on that point then. So there are some volume and mix assumptions within the USD 200 million. It's not a static balance sheet assumption?

抱歉，Sarah，我可以就這一點跟進嗎？因此，在 2 億美元內有一些數量和組合假設。這不是靜態資產負債表假設嗎？

Yes, that's right. This is not a static balance sheet. This is guidance.

是的，這是正確的。這不是靜態資產負債表。這是指導。

The next question is from Anke Reingen from Royal Bank of Canada.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的 Anke Reingen。

It's basically just around the costs. Thank you for giving the 9-month trends on the costs, FX, ex FX and litigation. I was wondering if you can give us the revenue equivalent on an FX-adjusted basis for the 9 months. And I hear you on strategic investments, but do you see any need to potentially -- at what point of draws what you're thinking considering of further actions on costs. And then I think you mentioned in terms of the U.S. offering, all the costs will be included in your current budget. Can you just confirm that and how you're going on about building out the U.S. offering without the Wealthfront acquisition.

基本上就在成本附近。感謝您提供成本、外匯、外匯前和訴訟方面的 9 個月趨勢。我想知道你是否可以在 9 個月的外匯調整基礎上給我們等值的收入。我聽說過你關於戰略投資的消息，但你是否認為有必要——在什麼時候得出你正在考慮的成本方面的進一步行動。然後我想你提到了美國的產品，所有的費用都將包含在你目前的預算中。你能否證實這一點，以及你將如何在沒有收購 Wealthfront 的情況下建立美國產品。

Sure. On -- you go ahead.

當然。繼續——你繼續。

Yes. So on the revenue ex FX and the gains were down 7%, and we actually put that on one of the slides, the revenue slides. Yes. That's revenue slide...

是的。因此，除外匯之外的收入和收益下降了 7%，我們實際上將其放在其中一張幻燈片上，即收入幻燈片。是的。那是收入下滑...

Is that 9 months?

是9個月嗎？

That's year-on-year on 3Q '21 versus 3Q '22. For the 9 months, I can pull it for you. There was even more effects on the revenue this quarter than last quarter although last quarter, there was some, too. So we can come back to you with the exact math on what DFS was for the 9 months.

這是 21 年第三季度與 22 年第三季度的同比。 9個月，我可以幫你拉。本季度對收入的影響比上一季度更大，儘管上一季度也有一些影響。因此，我們可以用關於 9 個月的 DFS 的精確數學返回給您。

And Anke, on your costs or investments in strategy and also as to the U.S. very specifically. So clearly, draws are important, and we will not continue to invest in areas where we don't foresee growth to come through, right? But we are committed to the strategy as we laid it out and that foresees a continuation of technology investments as well. But we have not really increased our technology investments even this year, but we have been able to generate quite some room in terms of the efficiency of the technology investments through agile.

還有 Anke，關於你的成本或戰略投資，也非常具體地涉及美國。很明顯，平局很重要，我們不會繼續投資於我們預計不會實現增長的領域，對嗎？但我們致力於我們制定的戰略，並且預見到技術投資的持續性。但即使在今年我們也沒有真正增加我們的技術投資，但我們已經能夠通過敏捷在技術投資的效率方面產生相當大的空間。

So that's where we create the room to continue technology investments that are underlying quite some of our strategic initiatives, both in the Investment bank as well as on the wealth side and in P&C.

因此，這就是我們為繼續技術投資創造空間的地方，這些技術投資是我們相當一部分戰略舉措的基礎，無論是在投資銀行、財富方面還是在 P&C 方面。

Now more to your question in the U.S. Clearly, a change of tactic is not a change of strategy. The U.S. is a very important region for us. It's the largest wealth pool in the world. We expect this to continue to grow over time by around 5%. That's why it is a focus of our strategy. That's why we will continue to invest there. And the investments that we are making in the U.S. are first and for all, to support our financial advisers, basically in what we call the personally advised segment where we need further digital enhancement in terms of supporting them in the work they do. The workstations, the processes behind fulfilling the needs of our clients. It is about developing more banking products and also to deliver those digitally. And you've seen this quarter that we've been quite successful in developing additional banking products more on the savings and the deposit side, that's very important there as well. So the banking products who support that part of our strategy in the U.S.

現在更多關於你在美國的問題。顯然，策略的改變不是戰略的改變。美國對我們來說是一個非常重要的地區。它是世界上最大的財富池。我們預計這一數字將隨著時間的推移繼續增長 5% 左右。這就是為什麼它是我們戰略的重點。這就是我們將繼續在那裡投資的原因。我們在美國進行的投資首先是為了支持我們的財務顧問，基本上是在我們所謂的個人建議部分，我們需要進一步的數字增強來支持他們所做的工作。工作站，滿足客戶需求的過程。它是關於開發更多的銀行產品並以數字方式提供這些產品。你已經看到本季度我們在儲蓄和存款方面更多地開發了額外的銀行產品，這在這方面也非常重要。因此，支持我們在美國的那部分戰略的銀行產品

Then looking at the higher wealth segment, the family offices to do more bespoke business there by a very good combination of what we can do from the investment bank perspective and the coverage on the wealth side. So that's also there.

然後看看更高的財富部分，家族辦公室通過將我們從投資銀行的角度和財富方面的覆蓋範圍很好地結合起來，可以在那裡開展更多定制業務。所以那也在那裡。

And then on the digital first and remote advice. It's a business that we do already. We have quite some remote advice and wealth management advice centers activities already. That's for the lower wealth plan, so to say. That's where we will continue to invest as well to support that business that we have there which has always been the idea. And that will all continue within the plans and the tech purchase that we have.

然後是數字優先和遠程建議。這是我們已經開展的業務。我們已經有相當多的遠程諮詢和財富管理諮詢中心活動。可以這麼說，這是針對較低財富的計劃。這也是我們將繼續投資的地方，以支持我們在那裡擁有的業務，這一直是我們的想法。這一切都將在我們的計劃和技術採購範圍內繼續進行。

The next question is from Adam Terelak from Mediobanca.

下一個問題來自 Mediobanca 的 Adam Terelak。

I had one on understanding the flows picture and then 1 on capital. So clearly, net new fee-generating assets has been very strong. I just wonder I understand how kind of the flows into money markets fits into that. You mentioned how much is being captured in asset management, but is that included within the fee-generating asset flow print in GWM. Just to understand that and kind of some of the deposit moves against some of your mandated business within GWM that would be great.

我有一個關於理解流量圖的，然後是 1 個關於資本的。很明顯，淨新的收費資產一直非常強勁。我只是想知道我了解流入貨幣市場的資金是如何融入其中的。你提到資產管理中捕獲了多少，但它包含在 GWM 的收費資產流打印中。只是了解這一點以及一些存款對 GWM 內的一些授權業務的影響，這將是很好的。

And then secondly, on capital. Clearly, the demand for your balance sheet from your wealth clients is much lower than you may have anticipated when you put out plans earlier in the year. I just wanted to hear kind of an update on your thinking on balance sheet deployment against kind of excess capital and buybacks and how that might change given clearly there's a much lower demand for your balance sheet in the more uncertain times?

其次，關於資本。顯然，您的財富客戶對資產負債表的需求遠低於您在今年早些時候制定計劃時的預期。我只是想听聽您對資產負債表部署的最新想法，以應對過剩資本和回購，以及這可能會如何改變，因為在更加不確定的時期，您對資產負債表的需求顯然要低得多？

Thank you. So on the flow side, net new fee generating assets that is truly sort of USD 17 billion of which more than that is actually into the mandates. So that's not the money market business of asset management. It is including the SMA business in the U.S. So for example, in the U.S., you see actually the number is USD 4.4 billion of net new fee-generating assets coming through in the U.S., USD 4.9 billion of that is in SMA business. The money market business is outside of these numbers.

謝謝你。因此，在流量方面，淨新產生費用的資產實際上是 170 億美元，其中實際用於授權的資產要多於此。所以這不是資產管理的貨幣市場業務。它包括美國的 SMA 業務。因此，例如，在美國，您實際上看到美國有 44 億美元的淨新收費資產，其中 49 億美元來自 SMA 業務。貨幣市場業務不在這些數字之內。

And any color on what the flows have been into in -- given the uncertainty?

考慮到不確定性，關於流量流入的任何顏色？

Yes. So for the fourth quarter, you can expect some continuation, for example, in Asia Pacific, but certainly also in the U.S. on the back of a strong quarter in terms of hiring financial advisers, both in the third quarter and discontinuing also in the fourth quarter, you can assume that, that will support flows also in the fourth quarter.

是的。因此，對於第四季度，你可以期待一些延續，例如，在亞太地區，但肯定也會在美國，因為在第三季度和第四季度都在招聘財務顧問方面表現強勁季度，你可以假設，這也將支持第四季度的流量。

So going to your capital question, maybe if I lay out our capital priorities, that might be helpful. So it's -- as it was maintaining a balance sheet for all seasons, including, of course, our regulatory requirements, investing in growth opportunities, offering a progressive dividend and then distributing excess capital to our shareholders. And so you have seen us deploy exactly like that in this year, where we have supported our clients, but also, you see, for example, this quarter a reduction in our risk RWA and in the IV RWA, which is what we believe is the right decision to make on a risk-adjusted basis. You have seen us, for example, reducing by 46% our LCM book, and we have done that. But on the flip side, you have seen us increasing some of the lending because it was appropriate to do so and done cautious but absolutely see open for business way in GWM or in P&C. And so those are things that we have done and of course, the deleveraging in Asia is affecting also the reductions in the lending.

所以關於你的資本問題，也許如果我列出我們的資本優先事項，那可能會有所幫助。所以它 - 因為它在所有季節都保持資產負債表，當然包括我們的監管要求，投資於增長機會，提供累進股息，然後向我們的股東分配多餘的資本。所以你看到我們今年的部署完全一樣，我們在今年支持我們的客戶，而且，你也看到，例如，本季度我們的風險 RWA 和 IV RWA 有所降低，我們認為這是在風險調整的基礎上做出正確的決定。例如，您已經看到我們將 LCM 書籍減少了 46%，我們已經做到了。但另一方面，你看到我們增加了一些貸款，因為這樣做是適當的，而且謹慎行事，但絕對看到 GWM 或 P&C 的業務方式是開放的。所以這些就是我們所做的事情，當然，亞洲的去槓桿化也在影響貸款的減少。

So we are open for business. We want to maintain this balance sheet, but that can also supporting our clients. And in fact, our clients are seeing us as a source of strength. And we have done 94% of capital return. If you take the guidance I have given you plus on the dividend for this year. And we continue to expect to have material share repurchase and a progressive dividend for next year.

所以我們開門營業。我們希望維持這個資產負債表，但這也可以支持我們的客戶。事實上，我們的客戶將我們視為力量的源泉。並且我們已經完成了94%的資本回報。如果你接受我給你的指導，再加上今年的股息。我們繼續期望明年進行實質性股票回購和累進股息。

The next question is from Flora Bocahut from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Flora Bocahut。

Yes, I have 2 questions on the NII again, please. The first question is just a follow-up on the guidance that you provided for '23. You know where you said that we basically can consider 4x the Q4 NII with upside. Is that guidance based on the group NII? Or is it based on the sum of GWM plus P&C? And actually talking about this, what's driving the difference, whereby the group NII is lower than the NII in GWM plus P&C. Is that because of the accounting asymmetries in the group functions. And if so, how do you expect this to evolve in the coming quarters?

是的，請問我還有 2 個關於 NII 的問題。第一個問題只是跟進您為 '23 提供的指導。你知道你在哪裡說過我們基本上可以考慮將 Q4 NII 提高 4 倍。該指南是否基於 NII 組？還是基於 GWM 加 P&C 的總和？實際上談論這一點，是什麼導致了差異，即集團 NII 低於 GWM 加上 P&C 中的 NII。是因為集團職能中的會計不對稱嗎？如果是這樣，您預計這在未來幾個季度會如何發展？

And then the second question is on the loan growth outlook for 2023, specifically in the wealth management business. Because if I look at the trend, obviously, there's been a slowdown in the growth, especially outside the Americas. But even in Americas, whether I look Q-on-Q or year-on-year, it's now hardly growing anymore. So what do you expect in terms of loan growth in Wealth Management from here given the environment of higher rates?

第二個問題是關於 2023 年的貸款增長前景，特別是在財富管理業務方面。因為如果我看一下趨勢，很明顯，增長已經放緩，尤其是在美洲以外的地區。但即使在美洲，無論我看 Q-on-Q 還是同比，它現在幾乎不再增長了。那麼，在利率較高的環境下，您對財富管理的貸款增長有何期望？

Thank you. So on the loan growth, clearly, as Sarah was indicating, we are open for business and specifically the loan growth in the wealth management business is not a very high risk perspective -- doesn't have a high risk normally. But for the moment, with markets going down, we see Lombard's going down as well because they are a reflection of the underlying collateral. And therefore, if markets continue to be like this or go up you could expect some pickup, but I don't expect markets to really go up very fast next year.

謝謝你。因此，關於貸款增長，很明顯，正如莎拉所指出的那樣，我們對業務開放，特別是財富管理業務的貸款增長不是一個非常高的風險觀點——通常沒有高風險。但就目前而言，隨著市場下跌，我們看到 Lombard 也在下跌，因為它們反映了基礎抵押品。因此，如果市場繼續這樣或上漲，你可以預期會有所回升，但我預計明年市場不會真正快速上漲。

So from that perspective, on the Lombard, I wouldn't expect too much coming through. One could maybe see some loan growth coming through in what we call the Global Family and institutional wealth business. We're selling that business up, as you know, across the globe. That is a little bit more chunky. That business is larger loans as well. So this may not be kind of a perfect trend quarter-on-quarter but some deals may come through there that would add to the loan portfolio in wealth.

所以從這個角度來看，在倫巴第，我不希望有太多的事情發生。人們可能會看到一些貸款增長來自我們所謂的全球家庭和機構財富業務。如您所知，我們正在全球範圍內出售該業務。那有點厚實。該業務也是較大的貸款。因此，這可能不是一個完美的季度環比趨勢，但一些交易可能會通過這些交易增加財富的貸款組合。

And then on the mortgage side, that really depends on -- yes, on how the economies develop really. So we'll see. So yes, I think the summary is overall subdued demand for loans. That's what you could expect next year with some more -- maybe a more spiky profile in terms of the quarter development on the back of these successes in Global Family and Institutional Wealth business.

然後在抵押貸款方面，這真的取決於——是的，取決於經濟的真正發展方式。所以我們拭目以待。所以是的，我認為總結是整體貸款需求低迷。這就是你明年可以期待的更多——在全球家庭和機構財富業務取得這些成功的背景下，在季度發展方面可能會有更突出的表現。

So in terms of your question on NII, so the -- all of the numbers we have covered were for GWM and P&C. If you look at the total group on the difference is not accounting asymmetries which is in instruments at fair value, which is not in NII but IB. So it's really an accounting. We reported to you when we give you global markets and when we give you banking, there is a component of NII and there is a component of the other pieces. But for you to think about it, it is much easier to think about the spread businesses in terms of NII, that's GWM and P&C. And then the markets businesses, in terms of their volatility and what we're seeing in the macroeconomic environment as well as banking based on the wallet that we are seeing. So that's the nature of the guidance that we have given you.

因此，就您關於 NII 的問題而言，我們涵蓋的所有數字都是針對 GWM 和 P&C 的。如果你看一下整個集團的差異，不是會計不對稱，而是以公允價值計量的工具，不是 NII，而是 IB。所以這真的是一個會計。當我們為您提供全球市場時，我們向您報告，當我們為您提供銀行業務時，有一個 NII 的組成部分，還有一個其他部分的組成部分。但是你仔細想想，從 NII 的角度來考慮差價業務要容易得多，那就是 GWM 和 P&C。然後是市場業務，就其波動性和我們在宏觀經濟環境中看到的情況以及基於我們所看到的錢包的銀行業務而言。這就是我們給你的指導的本質。

You can track it because we report as such.

您可以跟踪它，因為我們是這樣報告的。

The next question is from Jeremy Sigee from BNP Paribas Exane.

下一個問題來自 BNP Paribas Exane 的 Jeremy Sigee。

I just wanted to follow up about Asia Wealth Management, please, and thank you for the comments earlier on. You talked about caution from clients in terms of their appetite for leverage and transacting. And I just wondered if you could put in context the strong net new money flows relative to that. So if clients are not interested in leverage or transacting. What's the nature of these flows, what's the source of strength? I mean, is it flight to safety or capital out of China? What sort of -- how would you characterize those strong net new money flows against the backdrop of caution.

我只是想跟進亞洲財富管理，謝謝你早些時候的評論。你談到了客戶對槓桿和交易的興趣方面的謹慎。我只是想知道你是否可以將與之相關的強勁淨新資金流動放在背景中。因此，如果客戶對槓桿或交易不感興趣。這些流動的本質是什麼，力量的源泉是什麼？我的意思是，是逃往安全地帶還是資本撤出中國？什麼樣的——在謹慎的背景下，你如何描述這些強勁的淨新資金流動。

And then sort of following on from that, you talked about caution remaining at least through to the end of the year. I just wondered if you're seeing any signs of stabilization or improvement or really we're just sitting and waiting for the time being.

然後從那以後，你談到至少到今年年底仍然保持謹慎。我只是想知道您是否看到任何穩定或改善的跡象，或者我們真的只是暫時坐等。

And the last question on what?

最後一個問題是什麼？

The broader mood.

更廣泛的情緒。

The broader mood, okay, thank you. So the Asia flow see, the USD 6.6 billion, so almost USD 7 billion of net new fee-generating assets there. I mean, the real underlying trend there is that clients are seeking more guidance, and therefore, they're more open to do mandate business with us, moving away from their own transactional behavior. The transactional business is not necessary, caught by the fee generating assets. And therefore, you see the -- you see clients moving to get more advice and do more mandate business with us. So it's not necessarily a flight to safety. It is a flight to advice and guidance in the period in which it's more about trends rather than the occasional opportunity and that's a bit of a change of behavior that we see in our client base, and we're very happy to be able to cater that as well.

更廣闊的心情，好的，謝謝。所以亞洲的流量是 66 億美元，那裡有近 70 億美元的淨新收費資產。我的意思是，真正的潛在趨勢是客戶正在尋求更多指導，因此，他們更願意與我們開展委託業務，擺脫他們自己的交易行為。交易業務是不必要的，被產生費用的資產所吸引。因此，您會看到——您會看到客戶開始尋求更多建議並與我們開展更多授權業務。所以這不一定是安全的飛行。在這個時期，它更多地是關於趨勢而不是偶然的機會，這是一種對建議和指導的逃避，這是我們在客戶群中看到的一些行為變化，我們很高興能夠迎合那也是。

Over time, and certainly, if things kind of bottom out or at least are more predictable, in '23, we would expect some of the transactional business on the back of the change of behavior to come back in Asia as well.

隨著時間的推移，當然，如果事情觸底反彈或至少更可預測，在 23 年，我們預計在行為改變的背後，一些交易業務也會在亞洲回歸。

Now the overall mood Jeremy, yes, that's a very interesting one.

現在整體心情傑里米，是的，這是一個非常有趣的。

Particular in Asia -- sorry, I was meaning particularly in Asia sort of whether the more the broader sort of confidence amongst the Asian clients because you said don't expect much improvement until the end of the year. And I just wondered sort of are there any signs of improvement yet? Or is it still just too early?

特別是在亞洲——抱歉，我的意思是特別是在亞洲，亞洲客戶是否更有信心，因為你說在今年年底之前不會有太大改善。我只是想知道是否有任何改善的跡象？還是現在還為時過早？

No, that's too early. Maybe the kickoff has been the confirmation of she as the President for another 5 years, which at least gives us predictability around how policies will develop in China. We do expect the COVID measures to be lifted over time. Not very quickly because until the new year, that will still be kind of a moment of caution because people like traveling and see families. But thereafter, we would expect some list of measures there as well, further continuation of further support of the property sector should help as well.

不，那還為時過早。也許開場是確認她再擔任總統 5 年，這至少讓我們可以預測中國的政策將如何發展。我們確實希望隨著時間的推移取消 COVID 措施。不會很快，因為直到新的一年，這仍然是一個謹慎的時刻，因為人們喜歡旅行和看望家人。但此後，我們預計還會有一些措施清單，進一步繼續支持房地產行業也應該有所幫助。

If we're through that, we would expect some more positive signals to come through and support for the Asian economic development. And therefore, we do think it will go back to 5%. Asia and then specifically driven by China, as you know, but the timing of that is really the question.

如果我們度過難關，我們預計會出現一些更積極的信號，支持亞洲經濟發展。因此，我們確實認為它會回到 5%。如您所知，亞洲然後特別受中國推動，但時機確實是個問題。

The next question is from Magdalena Stoklosa from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Magdalena Stoklosa。

I still have a question about this kind of the sources of flows, net new money flows this quarter because, of course, the numbers have been very, very strong. So can I just kind of tackle it from a slightly different perspective, when you look at those flows in the third quarter? Is it existing? Or is it new clients? Or is there a certain level of concentration in those kind of flows across geographies? Or is it kind of much more broader based, I suppose, particularly in APAC, but maybe also the underlying EMEA trends because that number was also quite strong.

我仍然對這種流動來源、本季度淨新資金流動有疑問，因為當然，這些數字非常非常強勁。那麼，當您查看第三季度的這些流量時，我能否從稍微不同的角度來解決這個問題？它存在嗎？或者是新客戶？或者這些跨地域的流動是否存在一定程度的集中？或者它的基礎更廣泛，我想，特別是在亞太地區，但也可能是潛在的 EMEA 趨勢，因為這個數字也相當強勁。

And my second question is on your kind of some IB expectations because, of course, fixed income trading, particularly on the macro side for the industry for yourself, have been kind of very strong over the last kind of 9 months in particular. And I'm just curious, how do you think that kind of higher for longer interest rate environment will look like for that fixed income trading into 2023 as the kind of -- as the higher rates kind of settle in and the volatility potentially comes down a little bit.

我的第二個問題是關於您對 IB 的一些期望，因為當然，固定收益交易，特別是在您自己的行業宏觀方面，在過去 9 個月中一直非常強勁。我只是很好奇，你認為對於到 2023 年的固定收益交易來說，那種更高的利率環境會是什麼樣子——隨著更高的利率穩定下來，波動性可能會下降一點點。

And also, I've heard you this morning kind of talking about advisory unlikely to return in the fourth quarter. But how do you think about your advisory business into next year because, of course, mix-wise, it's very important for you.

而且，我今天早上聽到你在談論不太可能在第四季度回歸的諮詢。但是你如何看待明年的諮詢業務，因為當然，混合明智，這對你來說非常重要。

Magda, there's a whole slate of questions right there. Okay. I'll try to make a beginning here. So on the flows, it's literally a combination of existing clients being more interested in doing mandate business with us, specifically in Asia, that's where we see that change. In EMEA and in the U.S. the U.S., particularly driven through the success of our SMA business as well. And EMEA is also new clients coming on.

瑪格達，那裡有一大堆問題。好的。我會嘗試在這裡開始。因此，在流程上，它實際上是現有客戶的組合，他們對與我們開展授權業務更感興趣，特別是在亞洲，這就是我們看到這種變化的地方。在 EMEA 和美國，尤其是在我們 SMA 業務的成功推動下。 EMEA 也有新客戶湧入。

And Asia, by the way, is also new clients coming on. So it's a bit of a mixed bag. This is about net new fee-generating assets, by the way, Magda, not net new money, right? So we do separate those 2 concepts. Because net new money may not be net new fee-generated assets or the other way around.

順便說一句，亞洲也有新客戶湧入。所以它有點複雜。這是關於淨新的收費資產，順便說一下，瑪格達，不是淨新資金，對吧？所以我們將這兩個概念分開。因為淨新資金可能不是淨新的收費資產，反之亦然。

So I want to kind of caution that we really stick to our definition of net new fee-generating assets, which basically means, it is about assets that we manage on behalf of our clients, where there is inflow coming through new money coming into a mandate or dividends being paid within the mandate and staying within the mandate. That's the way these assets grow, and that's important.

所以我想提醒一下，我們確實堅持我們對淨新收費資產的定義，這基本上意味著，這是關於我們代表客戶管理的資產，新資金流入授權或股息在授權範圍內支付並保持在授權範圍內。這就是這些資產增長的方式，這很重要。

Then on the fixed income business, specifically more on the FX business, that's basically where we really profit. Clearly, in the second quarter, we already indicated the shift from the market and specifically for our franchise, an important shift from what we would call micro, which is more the equities business that we are really, really leading in globally as well, as you know, to more the macro, which is the fixed income and the rates business that we have a very high exposure, we have a very strong position in the foreign exchange business, and that's where we have profited from our institutional clients being very active on the back of the volatility there.

然後是固定收益業務，特別是外匯業務，這基本上是我們真正獲利的地方。顯然，在第二季度，我們已經表明了市場的轉變，特別是我們的特許經營權，這是我們所謂的微觀的重要轉變，它更多的是我們在全球範圍內真正、真正領先的股票業務，因為你知道，就更多的宏觀而言，我們有很高的風險敞口的固定收益和利率業務，我們在外匯業務中擁有非常強大的地位，這就是我們從非常活躍的機構客戶中獲利的地方在波動的背後。

Now these rates will continue. They will have their effect on FX as well. So the combination of that and with that the resources that we have moved from the equities business and some of the deleverage we use for that business, depending on how the market develops, we will continue to profit from it. Where the market is going, honestly, I don't know. I really don't know, Magda, on that one.

現在這些利率將繼續。它們也會對外匯產生影響。因此，根據市場的發展情況，結合我們從股票業務轉移的資源以及我們用於該業務的一些去槓桿化，我們將繼續從中獲利。市場走向何方，老實說，我不知道。我真的不知道，瑪格達，關於那個。

And then on the banking business, more on the Capital Markets business. Yes, what I said this morning was more that given where the market currently is, the volatility in the market, the fact that there is a bit of a risk off behavior on the investor side that with 6 or 7 weeks to go in this year because basically, you should, I mean, we probably have the first week of December, but thereafter markets are normally closed anyway. So we have 6 more weeks. I don't think that business will perform well. The markets are just not there.

然後是銀行業務，更多是資本市場業務。是的，我今天早上所說的更多的是考慮到目前的市場狀況、市場的波動性，以及今年還有 6 到 7 週的時間，投資者方面存在一些避險行為的事實因為基本上，你應該，我的意思是，我們可能有 12 月的第一周，但之後市場通常都會關閉。所以我們還有 6 週時間。我不認為業務會表現良好。市場只是不存在。

And in the next year, I think it will take quite some time before the confidence to come back in the market. That's one. And then there will be investor appetite. But then you still need also the ones who need the capital or want to sell our business from that perspective to be able to accept the fact that it will go at lower valuations because the high valuations are still fresh in their mind. And so it may take some time as well before they have turned the corner around accepting lower valuations for the Capital Markets business.

而在明年，我認為要恢復市場信心還需要相當長的時間。那是一個。然後就會有投資者的胃口。但是你仍然需要那些需要資金或想從那個角度出售我們的業務的人能夠接受這樣一個事實，即它會以較低的估值進行，因為高估值在他們腦海中仍然記憶猶新。因此，他們可能還需要一些時間才能扭轉局面，接受資本市場業務的較低估值。

And once there, yes, you will probably see the supply and demand coming back and getting a better market situation. But yes, so I would be surprised that going into the first quarter, that the first quarter would be good there, I don't think so.

一旦到達那裡，是的，您可能會看到供需回歸併獲得更好的市場狀況。但是，是的，所以我很驚訝進入第一季度，第一季度在那裡會很好，我不這麼認為。

The next question is from Kian Abouhossein from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Kian Abouhossein。

Two questions. One is on costs, just coming back to the numbers. I'm just thinking 2023. I recall undercurrent the guidance was that the cost growth of 2% plus/minus variable in '23 should not be too different. And I was wondering, can you reconfirm that? Clearly, things have changed in terms of inflation outlook, et cetera? Does that kind of indications still hold, first of all?

兩個問題。一個是成本，只是回到數字上。我只是在想 2023 年。我記得暗流指導是 23 年 2% 正/負變量的成本增長應該不會有太大差異。我想知道，你能再確認一下嗎？顯然，通脹前景等方面的情況發生了變化？首先，這種跡像是否仍然存在？

And then the second question is on cost income target of 70% to 73%, which you're clearly making this year, can you run me through your kind of stress scenario since you have a lot of mark-to-market revenues, how you think about the offset that you can take in order to bring yourself back towards that level or even close to that level, so we can understand how the dynamic would work on your controlling the cost.

然後第二個問題是關於 70% 到 73% 的成本收入目標，你今年顯然要達到這個目標，你能給我介紹一下你的壓力情景嗎，因為你有很多按市值計算的收入，如何您考慮了可以採取的補償措施，以使自己回到該水平甚至接近該水平，因此我們可以了解動態將如何影響您控製成本。

So first of all, in terms of how we think about expense, our primary lands is cost/income ratio. And we are currently in our planning phase for 2023. And you can be assured that we are intensely focused on being within our targets, and we're looking at that in different scenarios. And to your point, we actually are looking at actions that we would take if the environment deteriorated significantly from where it is today.

所以首先，就我們如何看待費用而言，我們的主要土地是成本/收入比率。我們目前正處於 2023 年的規劃階段。你可以放心，我們非常專注於實現我們的目標，我們正在不同的場景中考慮這一點。就你的觀點而言，我們實際上正在研究如果環境比今天嚴重惡化我們將採取的行動。

So we mentioned, for example, that we're executing this $1 billion gross expense save that we're on track for the $400 million that we had planned for this year. We've executed the $200 million of last year. And there is $400 million that is planned for next year. Those sales can be reinvested, and that's what we have done so far, but we don't have to. That's one of the levers, for example. Ralph and I both talked about on the levers that we are already taking the noncritical hires, the consulting, making sure that our privatization is very intentional for the tech investments that we're doing already. And then if we need to do more, as we said, we will. But if we do it too early, there is an optionality cost to that.

因此，我們提到，例如，我們正在執行這 10 億美元的總費用節省，我們正在按計劃實現今年計劃的 4 億美元。我們已經執行了去年的 2 億美元。明年計劃投入 4 億美元。這些銷售額可以進行再投資，這是我們迄今為止所做的，但我們不必這樣做。例如，這是槓桿之一。拉爾夫和我都談到了我們已經在聘用非關鍵員工的槓桿，諮詢，確保我們的私有化是有意為之的，我們已經在做技術投資。然後，如果我們需要做更多，就像我們說過的那樣，我們會的。但如果我們做得太早，就會有選擇性成本。

And just on -- should we think about the times of absolute cost guidance is not relevant anymore. We should think from now on going into '23 around cost-income targets.

就在 - 我們是否應該考慮絕對成本指導的時代不再相關。從現在開始，我們應該考慮圍繞成本收入目標進入 23 年。

The primary one is definitely cost income target. Once we give you the guidance we think that there is anything complementary that would be useful, we will. And you see, for example, that this quarter, we are giving you a guidance to make sure that you can be helped as you prepare the fourth quarter.

第一個絕對是成本收入目標。一旦我們為您提供指導，我們認為有任何有用的補充，我們就會。你會看到，例如，本季度，我們正在為您提供指導，以確保您在準備第四季度時能夠得到幫助。

The next question is from Piers Brown from HSBC.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Piers Brown。

I've just got 2 questions. First off, on the U.S. wealth strategy. So you said you're still investing in tech platforms and new client segments. And given that Wealthfront is not proceeding, but we've seen a very significant pullback across tech valuations. How are you thinking currently about opportunities to expand via M&A going forward?

我只有兩個問題。首先，關於美國的財富戰略。所以你說你仍在投資於技術平台和新的客戶群。鑑於 Wealthfront 沒有進行，但我們已經看到科技估值出現了非常顯著的回落。您目前如何看待未來通過併購進行擴張的機會？

And the second question is just on a topic which came up on the 2Q call, and I see you've highlighted again in the outlook statement of the 3G report, but the change to switch liquidity requirements, which I think became effective in July. Have you got any better clarity in terms of how that may impact the P&L as we move into next year?

第二個問題只是關於第二季度電話會議上提到的一個話題，我看到你在 3G 報告的展望聲明中再次強調了轉換流動性要求的變化，我認為這在 7 月份生效。隨著我們進入明年，您是否更清楚這可能如何影響損益表？

Yes. Thank you. So Piers, so on the wealth business in the U.S. So we were never really looking at getting into new segments per se, right? So we have a lot of clients in what we would call lower wealth bands, 250,000 to 1 million and 2 million. That's one.

是的。謝謝你。所以 Piers，所以美國的財富業務。所以我們從來沒有真正考慮進入新的細分市場，對吧？所以我們有很多客戶處於我們所謂的較低財富範圍，250,000 到 100 萬和 200 萬。那是一個。

We have 2 million clients in workplace wealth. Those are segments that we already cater for, for which we feel that we have to be more efficient in terms of how we deliver our services but also that we need to have a service to keep those invested assets with us.

我們在工作場所財富方面擁有 200 萬客戶。這些是我們已經迎合的細分市場，我們認為我們必須在提供服務的方式上更有效率，但我們也需要有一項服務來保留這些投資資產。

Clearly, over time, if you have an appealing digital offer in view of the generational transfer of wealth from even wealthier customers to the next generation, you should also be able to keep that in-house. So it's not necessarily that we're looking for new wealth segments. This is about the segments that we're already in and making sure that we have the right offer for those segments as well.

顯然，隨著時間的推移，鑑於財富從更富有的客戶代代相傳到下一代，如果你有一個有吸引力的數字產品，你也應該能夠將其保留在內部。因此，我們不一定要尋找新的財富細分市場。這是關於我們已經進入的細分市場，並確保我們也為這些細分市場提供合適的報價。

Now even on the personally advised, which is the core of our business there, we need quite a lot of technology investments in order to support them in the way they advise their clients, their workstations, the back office, the banking business that we're developing is a lot of technology investments as well. So across the different segments that we cater for, we will continue to have high technology investments in the U.S. in order to get better productivity and a better user experience.

現在，即使是個人建議，這是我們在那裡的業務核心，我們也需要相當多的技術投資，以支持他們為客戶、他們的工作站、後台辦公室、銀行業務提供建議的方式。重新開發也是大量的技術投資。因此，在我們所服務的不同細分市場中，我們將繼續在美國進行高科技投資，以獲得更高的生產力和更好的用戶體驗。

On the liquidity ordinance, so as you know, it became effective in July 2022, and there is a transition period of 18 months. And the way I think about it is if you look at our current level of liquidity, they are very high. And so when you think about the change in the minimum liquidity requirements that would be from -- not from the levels of cushions that we have today. So we have this level of excess liquidity. And therefore, when you think about the balance of the 2, we don't think that it should have a material impact on our profitability. And we're certainly in discussions to continue to make sure that we get the full clarity on the second phase of the implementation.

關於流動資金條例，大家知道，它是在2022年7月生效的，有18個月的過渡期。我的想法是，如果你看看我們目前的流動性水平，就會發現它們非常高。因此，當你考慮最低流動性要求的變化時——而不是我們今天擁有的緩沖水平。所以我們有這種水平的流動性過剩。因此，當您考慮兩者的平衡時，我們認為它不會對我們的盈利能力產生重大影響。我們當然正在討論，以繼續確保我們完全清楚實施的第二階段。

The next question is from Nicolas Payen from Kepler Cheuvreux.

下一個問題來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Nicolas Payen。

I have 2 questions, please. The first one is on AWS. and I wanted to know if we should expect any regulatory inflation for Q4 this year and maybe also into next year?

我有 2 個問題，請。第一個是在 AWS 上。我想知道我們是否應該預期今年第四季度甚至明年會出現監管通脹？

And the second one is coming back on your stop increase in client adviser in Americas. And I would like to know whether or not this trend will continue in Americas and especially in other regions. And if you have already witnessed some flows coming from this advisory in America.

第二個是關於你停止增加美洲客戶顧問的回歸。我想知道這種趨勢是否會在美洲，尤其是其他地區繼續下去。如果您已經在美國目睹了來自該諮詢的一些流量。

So on the regulatory cost inflation, we have all of that embedded in the numbers that we are giving to you. And so there is always additional things to do, and we are reflecting that in our cost base, but we're not pointing to specific growth in that regard. And of course, all the critical hires that are necessary for that, we always prioritize.

因此，關於監管成本通脹，我們將所有這些都嵌入到我們提供給您的數字中。所以總是有額外的事情要做，我們在我們的成本基礎上反映了這一點，但我們並沒有指出這方面的具體增長。當然，我們始終優先考慮所有必要的關鍵員工。

In terms of the growth in the FAs, we did have a strong recording quarter, which Ralph pointed out. And we also have a pipeline which Ralph also talked about and we are not being more specific about what level it might be going forward. But this was a very good recording quarter.

就 FA 的增長而言，我們確實有一個強勁的記錄季度，拉爾夫指出了這一點。我們還有一條管道，拉爾夫也談到了這一點，但我們沒有更具體地說明它可能會向前發展到什麼程度。但這是一個非常好的記錄季度。

The next question is from Andrew Coombs from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Andrew Coombs。

Two questions, please. Firstly, on the NII sensitivity in your prepared remarks, you talked about the deposit beta being better than expected. But at the same time, you've seen quite a significant offset from a mix shift in the deposit base. So perhaps you could elaborate on your expectations on the impact of deposit mix shift going forward into 2023 and how much of an offset that might provide?

請教兩個問題。首先，關於您準備好的發言中的 NII 敏感性，您談到了存款 beta 好於預期。但與此同時，您已經看到存款基礎的混合變化產生了相當大的抵消。因此，也許您可以詳細說明您對存款組合轉變影響到 2023 年的預期，以及可能提供多少抵消？

And then my second question would just be on the net new fee-generating assets, the demand you're seeing, both in asset management and wealth management, you talked about an increase in demand for CDs and money market products following the move up in rates and the additional yield that's providing. Are you seeing a mix shift within the existing client base as well into the lower-margin products? And anything you can say on the average fee margin on those versus the broader asset base would be helpful as well.

然後我的第二個問題是關於淨新的收費資產，你在資產管理和財富管理方面看到的需求，你談到了隨著 CD 和貨幣市場產品需求的增加率和提供的額外收益。您是否看到現有客戶群以及低利潤產品的混合轉變？你能說的關於這些與更廣泛資產基礎的平均費用利潤率的任何內容也會有所幫助。

So if you look at the charts that we gave, you see the proportions are for this year, and that was related to U.S. dollars. And in U.S. dollar, we have gone very fast, very high. And therefore, you have seen across the industry a fair bit of both volume and mix impact. So that's a normal phenomenon to the extent that the rate curves in Europe are less fast then you would be at a different point there. And then we also have are very strong P&C business, which is a different type of business in terms of like having all of the cash flow accounts of our clients.

因此，如果您查看我們提供的圖表，您會發現今年的比例與美元有關。以美元計算，我們漲得非常快，非常高。因此，您已經在整個行業看到了相當多的數量和組合影響。所以這是一種正常現象，因為歐洲的利率曲線沒有你在那裡的不同點快。然後我們還有非常強大的 P&C 業務，這是一種不同類型的業務，就像擁有我們客戶的所有現金流賬戶一樣。

In terms of retention, I talked about all of the assets we are staying in our platform and also -- so this is the slips and the accounts that are going into other products. And it's exactly what you said in terms of going into deposit products that are priced attractively. And for that, we got 60% retention and then another 25% in our own money market funds. And then the rest is going to be things like, for example, treasury, which has also been interesting in the U.S.

在保留方面，我談到了我們留在我們平台上的所有資產——所以這是進入其他產品的單據和賬戶。這正是你所說的進入價格有吸引力的存款產品。為此，我們在自己的貨幣市場基金中獲得了 60% 的保留率和另外 25% 的保留率。然後剩下的就是諸如財政部之類的事情，這在美國也很有趣。

I think the core message here is that it's been a particularly strong quarter as to how we have dealt with this. The sensitivity of clients around rates and how they're looking at it. We have been really able to manage this, keep the money within the UBS business lines, so to say, right, between what we would do within the bank in terms of deposits or as invested assets in treasuries or money markets and then the money market specifically on the asset management side. So I think the team did a fabulous job keeping it in, in the house with an approach to ensure to maximize profitability around it as well. And given the fact that we have all of these options and that we're so close to our clients, that's why we can do this. So a job really well done.

我認為這裡的核心信息是，就我們如何處理這個問題而言，這是一個特別強勁的季度。客戶對利率的敏感性以及他們如何看待利率。我們真的能夠做到這一點，將資金保留在瑞銀的業務範圍內，可以說，在我們在銀行內部所做的存款或作為國債或貨幣市場的投資資產，然後是貨幣市場之間特別是在資產管理方面。因此，我認為該團隊在將其保留在內部方面做得非常出色，並採用一種方法來確保也能最大限度地提高盈利能力。鑑於我們擁有所有這些選擇並且我們與客戶如此接近，這就是我們可以這樣做的原因。所以工作真的做得很好。

And it's been good for your retention, what does it imply in terms of margin mix shift?

這對您的保留有好處，這對利潤率組合轉變意味著什麼？

We're not sharing that type of information at this point.

我們目前不共享此類信息。

The next question is from Andrew Lim from Société Générale.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Andrew Lim。

So the first one, just a point of clarification on the NII for 2023. So you said that prior guidance of 4Q annualized with a bit of upside. Is that on a static balance sheet basis? Or is that actual guidance, which takes in account deposit outflows and mix shifts and so forth?

所以第一個，只是對 2023 年 NII 的澄清。所以你說 4Q 的先前指導年化了一點點上行空間。這是基於靜態資產負債表嗎？還是考慮了存款流出和混合轉移等因素的實際指導？

And then secondly, on your buybacks, you've guided to EUR 5.5 billion for the full year. So that marks a bit of a slowdown on the quarterly run rate for buybacks despite your CET1 ratio in Qinghai this quarter. I'm just wondering why maybe you're slowing that down a bit.

其次，在你的回購中，你指導全年達到 55 億歐元。因此，儘管本季度青海的 CET1 比率很高，但回購的季度運行率略有放緩。我只是想知道為什麼你可能會放慢速度。

And then looking towards 2023, you're still signaling a lot of excess capital. I'm wondering whether you would consider having a payout ratio of above 100% to try and bring that down a bit.

然後展望 2023 年，您仍然發出大量過剩資本的信號。我想知道您是否會考慮讓派息率超過 100% 以嘗試將其降低一點。

And so on the guidance that we have given -- all of the guidance that we have given both the fourth quarter guidance as well as the indication directional for 2023, all of that was guidance. It was not on a static balance sheet.

因此，關於我們給出的指導——我們給出的所有指導，包括第四季度指導以及 2023 年的指示方向，所有這些都是指導。它不在靜態資產負債表上。

In terms of the buybacks, it's simply what happens at that time of the year in terms of the liquidity in the market and also, obviously, it's based on the level of our stock price. So our stock price went up, it might be more. But the guidance we have given is based on our current stock price and the liquidity expected.

就回購而言，這只是一年中那個時候市場流動性發生的情況，而且很明顯，它基於我們的股價水平。所以我們的股價就漲了，可能漲的更多。但我們給出的指引是基於我們目前的股價和預期的流動性。

Remember that December is going to have a lower liquidity than other months. In terms of 2023, we expect to have material share repurchase, but we are not being more specific about the levels.

請記住，12 月的流動性將低於其他月份。就 2023 年而言，我們預計將進行重大的股票回購，但我們沒有更具體地說明回購水平。

Next question is from Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Benjamin Goy。

Two questions, please. The first one also on interest rate sensitivity. Given the Swiss franc or Swiss rates are now the major driver, I was wondering about the deposit beta you're assuming in the EUR 700 million that you stated in the sensitivity guidance. I'm particularly thinking about that deposit beta was better in the U.S. and the Swiss deposits are still growing?

請教兩個問題。第一個也是關於利率敏感性的。鑑於瑞士法郎或瑞士利率現在是主要驅動因素，我想知道您在敏感性指南中陳述的 7 億歐元的存款貝塔值。我特別想到美國的存款貝塔更好，而瑞士的存款仍在增長？

And then secondly, thank you for Slide 26. I think 12% of your client cash is invested in -- off of client asset investment cash and another 5 in money market product. So I'm just wondering how this looks like, let's say, early in the year and ones would you need to change it or? Or are there any major changes expected from here?

其次，感謝幻燈片 26。我認為 12% 的客戶現金投資於客戶資產投資現金，另外 5% 投資於貨幣市場產品。所以我只是想知道這看起來如何，比方說，在今年年初，你需要改變它嗎？或者這裡有什麼重大變化嗎？

So on the interest rate sensitivity and the beta that you can expect in Europe. The first thing to say is that betas typically become higher as you go up the curve. And so in the U.S., we are towards a higher point in the curve, and we went there extraordinarily quickly on what is expected in Switzerland and in the rest of Europe, is something that is much more measured. And therefore, we are at the lower point in that curve. And so that should be combined also with the fact that it is always the weighted average of our products. And we do have in Swiss Bank also the retail bank that has lower beta products.

因此，關於您可以在歐洲預期的利率敏感性和貝塔值。首先要說的是，隨著曲線的上升，貝塔通常會變得更高。因此，在美國，我們正朝著曲線的更高點邁進，我們以非常快的速度到達那裡，達到了瑞士和歐洲其他國家的預期，這是更加慎重的事情。因此，我們處於該曲線的較低點。因此，這也應該與它始終是我們產品的加權平均值這一事實相結合。我們在瑞士銀行也有擁有較低貝塔產品的零售銀行。

And then in terms of like the composition, we thought it would be helpful. So thanks for appreciating it as you try to think about the impacts of the different markets on our invested assets, both in GWM and in AM. And I think that those are things that don't evolve particularly quickly. So I think it's a good place for you to start.

然後就喜歡的構圖而言，我們認為它會有所幫助。因此，感謝您在嘗試考慮不同市場對我們在 GWM 和 AM 中的投資資產的影響時的讚賞。而且我認為這些東西不會特別迅速地發展。所以我認為這是您開始的好地方。

The next question is from Jon Peace from Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jon Peace。

Sorry to have one more on rate sensitivity, but just looking for still a little bit of help in sizing the 2023 benefit. You do offer the guidance that 100 basis point higher rates will add $0.7 billion on the franc curve and $0.2 billion on the euro curve, do you think those could be substantially offset by deposit beta or mix effect because I see consensus has basically about a $200 million uplift on the Q4 run rate, and we might come to a higher number if we use that sensitivity.

很抱歉再有一個關於速率敏感性的問題，但只是在尋找 2023 年收益的一些幫助。你確實提供了指導，即利率提高 100 個基點將在法郎曲線上增加 7 億美元，在歐元曲線上增加 2 億美元，你認為這些可能會被存款貝塔或混合效應大幅抵消，因為我認為共識基本上是 200 美元左右百萬提升了第四季度的運行率，如果我們使用這種敏感性，我們可能會得到更高的數字。

And then second question on the buyback for next year. I appreciate that you probably won't give us a number until the full year. But just could you help us understand the process you'll go through in Q4 in sizing that buyback? Is it a backward looking look at how far your CET1 is above your management target and you paid that out? Or is it a desire to maintain a higher buffer and then it's based on a forward look on earnings with payout of perhaps 100%?

然後是關於明年回購的第二個問題。我很感激你可能要到全年才能給我們一個數字。但是，您能否幫助我們了解您將在第四季度確定回購規模的過程？這是回顧一下您的 CET1 比您的管理目標高出多遠並且您付出了代價嗎？還是希望保持更高的緩衝，然後基於對收益的前瞻性展望，支付率可能為 100%？

Thank you, Jon. So let's not go into further details. The guidance is the guidance, right? And that's why we give it, and that's where we want to keep it as well.

謝謝你，喬恩。因此，我們不談更多細節。指導就是指導，對吧？這就是我們提供它的原因，也是我們想要保留它的地方。

Then on your questions around the '23 buyback. We go through this every year, looking at what is the starting capital position going into the year, what are our expectations as to making sure that we have a balance sheet to get through more challenging times, what kind of growth do we expect in the business? And on the back of that, how can we then manage our capital. And in the end, we manage our capital to around 13% CET1.

然後是關於 23 年回購的問題。我們每年都會檢查這個，看看今年的起始資本狀況是什麼，我們對確保我們有一個資產負債表來度過更具挑戰性的時期有什麼期望，我們期望什麼樣的增長商業？在此基礎上，我們如何管理我們的資本。最後，我們將資本管理為 13% 左右的 CET1。

So that's the way you can think about it. And whether we can kind of generate -- if we generate more capital and use less for our growth. Clearly, that will lead to a higher payout or buyback. So those are the components that we would look at. The point is we have a highly capital generative model. We have a low capital-intensive model to generate our income and we have a buffer to the 13% that we want to manage to.

這就是你可以考慮的方式。以及我們是否可以產生——如果我們產生更多的資本並減少對我們增長的使用。顯然，這將導致更高的支出或回購。所以這些是我們要查看的組件。關鍵是我們有一個高度資本生成的模型。我們有一個低資本密集型模式來產生我們的收入，我們有一個緩衝到我們想要管理的 13%。

And maybe before we close, I can just answer a question that came earlier, which was the 9 months year-on-year revenue ex FX, the number is plus 2%.

也許在我們結束之前，我可以回答之前提出的一個問題，即 9 個月的同比收入（不包括外匯），這個數字增加了 2%。

Okay. Thank you. In absence of any further questions, I'd like to thank you all for being here at this early morning. As indicated, given the market backdrop, I think we delivered a good quarter -- a good quarter, both in terms of staying close to our clients and the flows that are coming through both in the wealth management as well as the asset manager with $18 billion of net new money coming through on the asset manager. You see that both on the institutional side as well as the wealth side. We do provide for the right products and services and advisory to our clients and these while challenging circumstances were clients do need guidance.

好的。謝謝你。在沒有任何其他問題的情況下，我要感謝大家今天清晨來到這裡。如前所述，鑑於市場背景，我認為我們交付了一個不錯的季度——一個不錯的季度，無論是在與客戶保持密切聯繫方面，還是在財富管理和資產管理方面的流量方面，都達到了 18 美元資產管理公司獲得 10 億美元的淨新資金。您會在機構方面和財富方面看到這一點。我們確實為我們的客戶提供了正確的產品和服務以及諮詢，而在這些具有挑戰性的情況下，客戶確實需要指導。

And on the other side, it shows the flexibility of our investment bank in terms of the allocation of resources to move quickly from in market that is more micro related to a market that's more macro driven and being able to profit from that as well with an increase in our FRC revenues for 64% and P&C doing well over time, a very stable business growing both on the lending side as well as on the deposit side. So also there, very much client-focused and client-driven business and on the back of that, delivering a $1.7 billion of net profit.

另一方面，它顯示了我們的投資銀行在資源分配方面的靈活性，可以從更微觀的市場快速轉移到更宏觀驅動的市場，並能夠從中獲利隨著時間的推移，我們的 FRC 收入增長了 64%，P&C 表現良好，這是一項非常穩定的業務，無論是在貸款方面還是在存款方面都在增長。因此，也有非常以客戶為中心和客戶驅動的業務，並在此基礎上實現了 17 億美元的淨利潤。

Thank you very much, and see you next quarter.

非常感謝，下個季度見。

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast and Q&A session for analysts and investors is over. You may now disconnect your lines. We will now take a short break and continue with media Q&A session at 9:45, U.K/10:45 Central European Time.

女士們，先生們，面向分析師和投資者的網絡直播和問答環節已經結束。您現在可以斷開線路。我們現在稍作休息，繼續在英國中部時間 9 點 45 分/歐洲中部時間 10 點 45 分進行媒體問答環節。