UBS Group AG (UBS) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to the UBS Second Quarter 2022 Results Presentation. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們先生們,早上好。歡迎來到瑞銀 2022 年第二季度業績報告。會議不得為出版或廣播而錄製。 (操作員說明)

  • At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Sarah Mackey, UBS Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.

    在這個時候,我很高興向瑞銀投資者關係部的 Sarah Mackey 工作。請繼續,女士。

  • Sarah Mackey - Head of IR

    Sarah Mackey - Head of IR

  • Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement slide at the back of today's results presentation. Please also refer to the risk factors in our 2021 annual report, together with disclosures in our SEC filings.

    早上好,歡迎大家。在我們開始之前,我想提請您注意我們在今天的結果介紹後面的警示性聲明幻燈片。另請參閱我們 2021 年年度報告中的風險因素,以及我們在 SEC 文件中的披露。

  • So on Slide 2, you can see our agenda for today. And it's now my pleasure to hand over to Ralph Hamers, Group CEO.

    所以在幻燈片 2 上,您可以看到我們今天的議程。現在,我很高興向集團首席執行官拉爾夫·哈默斯 (Ralph Hamers) 工作。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Thank you, Sarah. Good morning, everyone. I think going through, you will see that the second quarter has been one of the most challenging periods for investors in the last 10 years. It has not been an asset class that has been immune to the effects of the challenging global macroeconomic environment.

    謝謝你,莎拉。大家,早安。我認為通過後,您會發現第二季度是過去 10 年來投資者最具挑戰性的時期之一。它並不是一個不受全球宏觀經濟環境挑戰影響的資產類別。

  • In these uncertain times, our clients rely on our powerful ecosystem to navigate markets and invest for the long term. And our headline numbers for the quarter were strong, and return on CET1 capital was 19%. And those numbers included a gain from the sale of our stake in the joint venture in Japan.

    在這些不確定的時期,我們的客戶依靠我們強大的生態系統來駕馭市場並進行長期投資。我們本季度的總體數據強勁,CET1 資本回報率為 19%。這些數字包括出售我們在日本合資企業中的股份所獲得的收益。

  • This gain aside, our underlying performance reflected good result in a more challenging environment with lower asset levels, higher volatility and increasing rates. And we're navigating this environment staying close to our clients, keeping strong risk and credit discipline and our continued focus on cost.

    撇開這一收益不談,我們的基本表現反映了在資產水平較低、波動性較高和利率上升的更具挑戰性的環境中取得的良好業績。我們在這種環境中與客戶保持密切聯繫,保持嚴格的風險和信用紀律,並繼續關注成本。

  • Going to the next slide. Basically, you see that the market sell-off accelerated in the second quarter, and that was the case in both equities as well as fixed income. Inflation continues to be high. The war in Ukraine is ongoing. Strict COVID policies are still part of the life in Asia, and all of these have led to further declines in economic growth outlook. And with significant drop in markets, our client portfolios lost value resulting in lower client assets across our franchise.

    轉到下一張幻燈片。基本上,您會看到第二季度市場拋售加速,股票和固定收益都是如此。通貨膨脹率繼續居高不下。烏克蘭的戰爭正在進行中。嚴格的 COVID 政策仍然是亞洲生活的一部分,所有這些都導致經濟增長前景進一步下滑。隨著市場的大幅下滑,我們的客戶投資組合失去了價值,導致我們整個特許經營中的客戶資產減少。

  • Just to put a couple of numbers to that, the MSCI world index was down 17%. Investment-grade bonds were down 5% on average. High-yield bonds were down 12%. So it's no wonder that our private clients stayed on the sidelines this quarter. And net new fee-generating assets were flat for the group, but positive for Asia Pacific and also positive for Switzerland. Transaction-based revenues with these clients declined by 17%. We also saw 12 billion of net outflows in asset management, mostly out of equities.

    僅舉幾個數字,MSCI 世界指數下跌 17%。投資級債券平均下跌 5%。高收益債券下跌 12%。因此,我們的私人客戶在本季度保持觀望也就不足為奇了。該集團的淨新收費資產持平,但對亞太地區和瑞士有利。與這些客戶的交易收入下降了 17%。我們還看到資產管理淨流出 120 億,其中大部分流出股票。

  • In times of turmoil, liquidity is important. We continue to support our clients through lending with growth, particularly in the Americas. We also focus on deposit offering and optimize our net interest income, where we saw 15% growth across our deposit-taking businesses. And deposits were flat against last year.

    在動盪時期,流動性很重要。我們繼續通過增長貸款來支持我們的客戶,尤其是在美洲。我們還專注於提供存款並優化我們的淨利息收入,我們的存款業務增長了 15%。存款與去年持平。

  • Client activity was robust on the institutional side. So that's a completely different picture. They remain very active on the back of high volatility. Global Markets revenues for that reason were up 10% year-on-year. Our markets business had another good quarter, traded well on increased activity. We benefited from prudent risk management here from resilience of our technology platform to basically handle the very high equity volumes coming through the system. And it's clear that it was a challenging quarter for our clients and for our businesses. But in times like this, it's where our clients need us most and need our advice most as well, and that's what we're focused on.

    機構方面的客戶活動活躍。所以這是一個完全不同的畫面。在高波動性的背景下,它們仍然非常活躍。全球市場收入因此同比增長 10%。我們的市場業務又一個不錯的季度,由於活動增加而交易良好。我們從技術平台的彈性中受益於審慎的風險管理,基本上可以處理來自系統的非常高的股票交易量。很明顯,對於我們的客戶和我們的業務來說,這是一個充滿挑戰的季度。但在這樣的時代,這是我們的客戶最需要我們的地方,也是最需要我們建議的地方,而這正是我們所關注的。

  • Then looking at some of the particular performances that we showed, our investment ecosystem continue to allow our clients with unique insights, opportunities to get through this volatility. This slide, Slide 5, I am right now, highlight some areas of growth in our ecosystem for the last quarter. We're working with our partners to offer our unique -- our clients' unique investment opportunities. For example, private markets where we saw new commitments at 3.9 billion for the quarter or 5 billion on a gross basis. And we see also more potential for this category, private markets category. Our CIO recommends that clients with a balanced risk portfolio, risk profile allocated to 10% of their portfolios to private markets. At this moment, the average allocation is 3%. So a real upside there.

    然後看看我們展示的一些特定表現,我們的投資生態系統繼續為我們的客戶提供獨特的見解和機會,以度過這種波動。這張幻燈片,即幻燈片 5,我現在正在展示上一季度我們生態系統中的一些增長領域。我們正在與我們的合作夥伴合作,提供我們獨特的——我們客戶的獨特投資機會。例如,我們看到該季度新承諾為 39 億美元或總額為 50 億美元的私人市場。我們也看到了這個類別的更多潛力,私人市場類別。我們的首席信息官建議客戶擁有平衡的風險組合,將其風險組合的 10% 分配給私人市場。此時,平均分配為 3%。所以那裡有一個真正的好處。

  • Our offering for separately managed accounts in the U.S. continues to attract inflows as well, 4 billion this quarter with overall asset under management and SMAs currently at $115 billion. So that's quite remarkable in terms of performance since we started that in 2020.

    我們在美國提供的單獨管理賬戶也繼續吸引資金流入,本季度流入 40 億美元,管理的總資產和 SMA 目前為 1150 億美元。因此,自從我們在 2020 年開始以來,這在性能方面非常出色。

  • Sustainable investing is embedded in our purpose and our strategy, as you know, and that's why we report on this as well. We already managed 239 billion of sustainable investments on behalf of our clients. So more than half way to our 400 billion of aspiration for 2025. But we need common standards here to maximize the impact, and that's why we're partnering to create these in many different platforms and subscribe into many different methodologies, but also by contributing to the newly developed Swiss climate scores.

    如您所知,可持續投資已融入我們的宗旨和戰略,這也是我們對此進行報告的原因。我們已經代表客戶管理了 2,390 億筆可持續投資。因此,我們在 2025 年實現 4000 億的目標已經實現了一半以上。但我們需要共同的標準來最大限度地發揮影響,這就是為什麼我們要合作在許多不同的平台上創建這些標準並訂閱許多不同的方法,而且還通過貢獻到新開發的瑞士氣候分數。

  • My Way, as you know, it's a module where we actually deliver digital mandates. We saw inflows of 0.5 billion here. We expanded our product offering in line with our CIO views, including and actively managed commodities module here as well now. So that offering to really have your mandate digitally is increasing every quarter as well.

    如您所知,My Way 是我們實際交付數字任務的模塊。我們看到這裡有 5 億的資金流入。我們根據 CIO 的觀點擴展了我們的產品供應,現在也包括此處的主動管理商品模塊。因此,真正以數字方式獲得您的授權的產品也在每個季度都在增加。

  • And lastly, momentum stayed positive for investment product inflows in Switzerland. These contributed to 8% year-on-year growth in recurring fees. Last quarter, we saw 0.5 billion of positive inflows in investment products, and that's also representing 8% annualized growth.

    最後,瑞士的投資產品流入勢頭保持積極。這些導致經常性費用同比增長 8%。上個季度,我們看到投資產品有 5 億正流入,這也代表了 8% 的年化增長率。

  • So as you can see, we're delivering on our promise to offer the clients the right opportunities at the right time. Clearly, when times change, the opportunity has to be changed as well. And we are literally think very close to our clients to get a sense for what works for them in their investment portfolios and also on the way we deliver to them in a more digital way. And on that note, let me turn to the next slide where we basically give you an update as to how we are leveraging technology as a differentiator while improving our efficiency.

    如您所見,我們正在兌現我們的承諾,即在正確的時間為客戶提供正確的機會。顯然,當時代改變時,機會也必須改變。從字面上看,我們與客戶的關係非常密切,以了解他們的投資組合中什麼對他們有用,以及我們以更加數字化的方式向他們提供服務的方式。關於這一點,讓我轉到下一張幻燈片,我們基本上會向您介紹我們如何在提高效率的同時利用技術作為差異化因素。

  • So technology, we use in order to improve our user experience but we also use it for efficiency. And I think this slide shows you that we are accelerating the use of technology to our clients so that they can track with us through their preferred channels in a seamless way.

    因此,我們使用技術是為了改善我們的用戶體驗,但我們也使用它來提高效率。我認為這張幻燈片向您展示了我們正在加速向我們的客戶使用技術,以便他們可以通過他們喜歡的渠道以無縫的方式與我們進行跟踪。

  • We launched in Switzerland, key4 banking, which is a digital-only banking offering. It's fast, intuitive. It's competitively priced. We target the mobile-only retail segment here, which grows at 30% year-on-year. So it's a very fast-growing segment that we want to be a player in. Of course, key4 clients also have access to the classic UBS offering for more specific services, and the platform will be a feeder to those.

    我們在瑞士推出了 key4 銀行業務,這是一種純數字銀行業務。它快速、直觀。它的價格具有競爭力。我們在這裡瞄準純移動零售市場,該市場同比增長 30%。因此,這是一個快速增長的細分市場,我們希望成為其中的一員。當然,key4 客戶也可以使用經典的 UBS 產品來獲得更具體的服務,而該平台將成為這些服務的支線。

  • In Asia Pacific, our Circle One ecosystem is now live. The app connects clients to experts, thought leaders, actual trade ideas through engaging content and video. So basically an app with very snackable content. People can watch videos, get educated on specific trends, investment opportunities and as the next step also executing those.

    在亞太地區,我們的 Circle One 生態系統現已上線。該應用程序通過引人入勝的內容和視頻將客戶與專家、思想領袖、實際交易理念聯繫起來。所以基本上是一個內容非常簡單的應用程序。人們可以觀看視頻,了解特定趨勢、投資機會,並在下一步執行這些內容。

  • So far, also in Circle One, the user base is growing fast. And with time, we will add new features. Thanks to the agile development that we actually apply here, and we will have continuous feedback from our clients to ensure that we stay ahead in our developments, both in terms of the offering as well as the user experience. As an example, in the next phase, clients will be able to connect with each other and to experts in interest groups that focus on very specific topics. And that could be investing. It could be wealth planning, family advisory, sustainability (inaudible) and much more.

    到目前為止,同樣在 Circle One 中,用戶群也在快速增長。隨著時間的推移,我們將添加新功能。感謝我們在這裡實際應用的敏捷開發,我們將從客戶那裡獲得持續的反饋,以確保我們在產品和用戶體驗方面保持領先地位。例如,在下一階段,客戶將能夠相互聯繫,並與關注特定主題的興趣小組中的專家建立聯繫。那可能是投資。它可能是財富規劃、家庭諮詢、可持續性(聽不清)等等。

  • Our strategy to transform how we manage, change and develop technology is also on track. And you can see that also in this slide where we are executing our cloud strategy to gain further flexibility, to gain further efficiency as well. And we now have around 60% of our computing power fully delivered on cloud, half on the public cloud, half on the private cloud.

    我們改變我們管理、改變和開發技術的方式的戰略也步入正軌。您還可以在這張幻燈片中看到,我們正在執行我們的雲戰略,以獲得更大的靈活性,同時也獲得更高的效率。現在,我們大約 60% 的計算能力完全在雲上交付,一半在公共雲上,一半在私有云上。

  • We're transforming our agile workforce -- our workforce to agile way of working. We're currently having 13,000 employees working that way. It's the second wave we're in. Within these teams now, we see that technology teams are consisting of 65% of engineers. So basically, we're changing the composition in terms of non-engineers to engineers, and that has changed by 10 percentage points. So a real productivity increase coming through if you compare it to the pre-agile composition of our technology teams.

    我們正在轉變我們的敏捷員工隊伍——我們的員工隊伍轉變為靈活的工作方式。我們目前有 13,000 名員工以這種方式工作。這是我們進入的第二波。現在在這些團隊中,我們看到技術團隊由 65% 的工程師組成。所以基本上,我們正在將非工程師的構成改變為工程師,這已經改變了 10 個百分點。因此,如果您將其與我們技術團隊的前敏捷組成進行比較,就會實現真正的生產力提升。

  • We developed AI technology to help identify and remediate service interruptions in over 500 applications as well. And we've commissioned around 300 applications this year to simplify our tech estate.

    我們還開發了人工智能技術來幫助識別和修復 500 多個應用程序中的服務中斷。今年我們已經委託了大約 300 個應用程序來簡化我們的技術資產。

  • These are just a couple of proof points how we're making technology differentiator, both in user experience as well as in how we manage technology flexibly and efficiently.

    這些只是我們如何在用戶體驗以及我們如何靈活有效地管理技術方面實現技術差異化的幾個證明點。

  • Turning to Slide 7. I'd like to give you a couple of examples of how we are executing our strategy and capabilities in the regions because that's where our strategy comes together. And we're organizing divisions. But where the rubber hits the road is truly with the clients, and the clients are in the regions.

    轉到幻燈片 7。我想舉幾個例子來說明我們如何在這些地區執行我們的戰略和能力,因為這是我們的戰略結合的地方。我們正在組織部門。但是,真正發揮作用的地方是客戶,而客戶就在這些地區。

  • So let's talk about the Americas here. The recent dollar interest rate hikes are a primary focus of how we manage our deposit offering. We expanded our deposit offering for that reason. We saw also a continued demand for loans. And as a result of the combination, our net interest income was up 37% versus last year.

    所以讓我們在這裡談談美洲。最近的美元利率上漲是我們如何管理存款產品的主要焦點。出於這個原因,我們擴大了存款產品。我們還看到對貸款的持續需求。由於合併,我們的淨利息收入比去年增長了 37%。

  • In Switzerland, we're building a strong foundation on the technology side, which contributes to being named Best Bank in Switzerland for the eighth time since 2012.

    在瑞士,我們正在技術方面打下堅實的基礎,這有助於自 2012 年以來第八次被評為瑞士最佳銀行。

  • In EMEA, as you know, our strategy is very much to improve profitability with a very selective investments in our areas of focus, more towards the entrepreneurial wealth creation, families with large companies and the build-out of our banking proposition to that segment. This strategy we see is delivering results already, specifically on the cost side where costs were down 9% against last year.

    如您所知,在歐洲、中東和非洲,我們的戰略是通過在我們的重點領域進行非常有選擇性的投資來提高盈利能力,更多地投資於創業財富創造、擁有大公司的家庭以及將我們的銀行業務擴展到該領域。我們看到的這一策略已經取得了成效,特別是在成本方面,成本比去年下降了 9%。

  • Lastly, Asia Pacific, and that's also as a result of our continued focus and discussion with clients to show them our mandate offerings. We saw 3.3 billion of net new fee generating assets in the quarter alone.

    最後是亞太地區,這也是我們持續關注並與客戶討論以向他們展示我們的委託產品的結果。僅在本季度,我們就看到了 33 億淨新收費資產。

  • And overall, you see basically, given the fact that we're talking about 4 regions with a selective update here, you see that region diversification is really a competitive advantage for us. It's a source for stability. It's a source for resilience. And I think this quarter proved it once began.

    總體而言,您基本上可以看到,鑑於我們在這裡討論的是 4 個具有選擇性更新的區域,您會發現區域多元化對我們來說確實是一個競爭優勢。它是穩定的源泉。它是彈性的來源。我認為本季度證明它曾經開始。

  • Now then to a summary on the numbers, and then Sarah will take you through a more specific numbers as well. And thereafter, we'll have the Q&A. But just ending on the diversification, both regionally and by business. You see the resilience in our financials here on this slide. Our revenues have started to benefit from higher interest rates and that helped offset the lower recurring fees and the lower client activity levels on the private side. Again, on the institutional side, we saw quite the opposite with good results in global markets.

    現在來總結一下這些數字,然後莎拉也會帶你了解更具體的數字。之後,我們將進行問答。但只是結束了區域和業務的多樣化。您可以在這張幻燈片上看到我們財務狀況的彈性。我們的收入已開始受益於更高的利率,這有助於抵消較低的經常性費用和較低的私人客戶活動水平。同樣,在機構方面,我們看到的情況恰恰相反,在全球市場取得了良好的成績。

  • Meanwhile, we remain very disciplined in cost as we execute our efficiency plan. Operating expenses were down 1% compared to last year. And together with the gain on the sale of the joint venture in Japan, which we already updated you on, this resulted in 2.1 billion in net profit, 18.9% return on CET1 and a 70.6% of cost-income ratio, all within target levels.

    同時,在執行效率計劃時,我們在成本方面仍然非常自律。與去年相比,運營費用下降了 1%。再加上我們已經向您介紹的出售日本合資企業的收益,這帶來了 21 億美元的淨利潤、18.9% 的 CET1 回報率和 70.6% 的成本收入比,均在目標水平之內.

  • In the second quarter, we bought back another 1.6 billion of shares while maintaining capital ratios well above the requirements. So we are well on track to buy back around $5 billion of shares by the end of the year.

    在第二季度,我們又回購了 16 億股,同時保持資本比率遠高於要求。因此,我們有望在年底前回購約 50 億美元的股票。

  • Now heading into the second half of the year, we're well positioned for an operating environment, which remains uncertain, certainly in the next couple of months. I see that so. But we're very well positioned to work through that. That's thanks to our strategy, thanks to our business model at values global diversification, operation and financial resilience, strict risk management, capital efficiency and a strong capital base.

    現在進入下半年,我們已經為運營環境做好了準備,這仍然不確定,當然在接下來的幾個月裡。我是這麼看的。但我們非常有能力解決這個問題。這要歸功於我們的戰略,歸功於我們重視全球多元化、運營和財務彈性、嚴格的風險管理、資本效率和強大的資本基礎的商業模式。

  • So strong reported results. And I think this is also the moment for me to hand over to Sarah Youngwood, our CFO, and she will take you through the underlying performance. Sarah, the floor is yours.

    如此強大的報告結果。我認為這也是我交給我們的首席財務官 Sarah Youngwood 的時刻,她將帶你了解潛在的表現。莎拉,地板是你的。

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • Thank you, Ralph. Good morning, everyone. It is a great pleasure to be here today. As you heard from Ralph, we reported a strong set of results during this period of uncertainty. We partnered with our clients when they needed us most and delivered a good underlying performance.

    謝謝你,拉爾夫。大家,早安。今天很高興來到這裡。正如您從拉爾夫那裡聽到的,我們在這段不確定的時期報告了一系列強有力的結果。我們在客戶最需要我們的時候與他們合作,並提供了良好的基本業績。

  • On Slide 10, our net profit in the quarter was $2.1 billion, up 5% year-on-year with a return on CET1 capital of 19%, a return on tangible equity of 16% and a cost/income ratio of 71%. We have a balance sheet for all season and are on track to meet our return on CET1 capital and cost/income ratio target for the full year 2022.

    在幻燈片 10 上,我們本季度的淨利潤為 21 億美元,同比增長 5%,CET1 資本回報率為 19%,有形股本回報率為 16%,成本/收入比為 71%。我們擁有整個賽季的資產負債表,並有望實現我們在 2022 年全年的 CET1 資本回報率和成本/收入比率目標。

  • The year-on-year comparison on the slide highlights a number of items that are not representative of our underlying performance. First of all, in revenues in the first part, $810 million from net gain on sales. This included the 848 million sale of our real estate JV in Japan and the sale of our minority stake in Fondcenter a year ago. This was partially offset by 147 million real estate related revenue impacts, including a loss of 46 million this quarter.

    幻燈片上的同比比較突出了一些不能代表我們基本業績的項目。首先,在第一部分的收入中,8.1 億美元來自銷售淨收益。這包括出售我們在日本的房地產合資企業的 8.48 億美元以及一年前出售我們在 Fondcenter 的少數股權。這被 1.47 億房地產相關收入影響部分抵消,包括本季度虧損 4600 萬。

  • And moving to expense. We had 158 million higher litigation, including 221 million this quarter, net FX movements were over 200 million each for revenue and expense and netted to a headwind of around 50 million.

    並轉向費用。我們的訴訟增加了 1.58 億件,包括本季度的 2.21 億件,淨外匯變動的收入和費用各超過 2 億件,淨逆風約為 5000 萬件。

  • Now let me go through the underlying performance. The revenue story reflected the impact of market levels on recurring and transaction fees as well as lower global banking revenues, mostly offset by higher combined net interest income in GWM and P&C and continued strength in global markets.

    現在讓我來看看潛在的表現。收入情況反映了市場水平對經常性和交易費用以及全球銀行收入下降的影響,大部分被 GWM 和 P&C 的合併淨利息收入增加以及全球市場的持續強勁所抵消。

  • The net credit loss was $7 million compared to an $80 million release last year. This is a reflection of our existing level of reserves and the quality of our balance sheet. For example, 94% of our loans are collateralized. And for those, the average LTV is less than 55%.

    與去年的 8000 萬美元相比,淨信用損失為 700 萬美元。這反映了我們現有的儲備水平和資產負債表的質量。例如,我們 94% 的貸款都有抵押。而對於這些人來說,平均 LTV 不到 55%。

  • Operating expense was down 1% as variable compensation was down around $130 million, offset by increases in T&E and IT. We remain focused on our cost discipline while absorbing increasing inflationary pressures and investing for the long term.

    由於可變薪酬下降了約 1.3 億美元,運營費用下降了 1%,但被 T&E 和 IT 的增長所抵消。我們繼續專注於我們的成本紀律,同時吸收不斷增加的通脹壓力並進行長期投資。

  • Now let's turn to our regions on Page 11. Ralph walked you through the strength of our regions, and I will show you the diversification in our numbers. On the revenue side, Americas represented 40% of our business, followed by Switzerland at 23%, EMEA at 20% and APAC at 17%. On the right, given the strong efficiencies of Switzerland and APAC and the level of investments in the U.S., on a pretax basis ex-litigation, Switzerland represented 1/3 of our business, followed by Americas at 23%, APAC at 22% and EMEA at 21%.

    現在讓我們轉到第 11 頁的我們的地區。Ralph 向您介紹了我們地區的實力,我將向您展示我們人數的多樣化。在收入方面,美洲占我們業務的 40%,其次是瑞士,佔 23%,EMEA 佔 20%,亞太地區佔 17%。右側,鑑於瑞士和亞太地區的高效率以及在美國的投資水平,在稅前除訴訟基礎上,瑞士占我們業務的 1/3,其次是美洲,佔 23%,亞太地區佔 22%,歐洲、中東和非洲地區為 21%。

  • Let's move to our businesses on Page 12, starting with GWM. GWM profit before tax in the quarter was $1.2 billion, down 2% year-on-year excluding litigation. Revenues were 2% lower with top line increases in Americas and Switzerland driven by NII and decreases in APAC and EMEA due to lower market levels and muted client activity. NII overall was up 24% year-on-year and 11% sequentially, with deposit volumes up 1% year-on-year, including 19% up in Americas and down 6% Q-on-Q. I would also note that the firm's deposits were flat year-on-year and down 5% Q-on-Q. We were able to increase our deposit margins in GWM by over 60% versus a year ago, while providing our funds with very competitive and stable pricing in savings rates, which they appreciated.

    讓我們從第 12 頁轉到我們的業務,從 GWM 開始。長城汽車本季度稅前利潤為 12 億美元,不包括訴訟,同比下降 2%。收入下降 2%,其中美洲和瑞士的收入增長受到 NII 的推動,而亞太地區和歐洲、中東和非洲地區由於市場水平下降和客戶活動低迷而下降。 NII總體同比增長24%,環比增長11%,存款量同比增長1%,其中美洲增長19%,環比下降6%。我還要指出,該公司的存款同比持平,環比下降 5%。與一年前相比,我們能夠將我們在長城汽車的存款利潤率提高 60% 以上,同時為我們的基金提供極具競爭力和穩定的儲蓄利率定價,他們對此表示讚賞。

  • While we've stayed close to our clients, macro and geopolitical uncertainties and lower asset pricing have kept them on the sidelines. As we enter the third quarter, the sentiment remains subdued. The operating expense ex litigation and FX was flat versus last year.

    儘管我們與客戶保持密切聯繫,但宏觀和地緣政治的不確定性以及較低的資產定價使他們保持觀望。當我們進入第三季度時,市場情緒仍然低迷。除訴訟和外匯外的運營費用與去年持平。

  • Net new fee-generating assets were $0.4 billion in the quarter with positive flows into SMAs, alternatives, self-directed mandates and UBS My Way, which more than offset pressure in discretionary mandates and investment funds.

    本季度新增收費資產淨額為 4 億美元,正流入 SMA、另類投資、自主委託和 UBS My Way,這足以抵消全權委託和投資基金的壓力。

  • We also continue to see high demand in the private market space where, as Ralph already mentioned, we saw $3.9 billion of net new commitments. Despite the environment, we also continue to see strong flows in APAC while net new fee-generating assets were over $3 billion in the second quarter. These inflows together with $1 billion inflows in Switzerland, more than offset outflows in the Americas and EMEA.

    我們還繼續看到私人市場領域的高需求,正如拉爾夫已經提到的那樣,我們看到了 39 億美元的淨新承諾。儘管環境如此,我們也繼續看到亞太地區的強勁流動,而第二季度的淨新收費資產超過 30 億美元。這些流入加上瑞士 10 億美元的流入,超過了美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲的流出。

  • For the past 12 months, we generated $65 billion net new fee-generating assets which represents around a 5% growth. For the first 3 weeks of July, we saw positive flows in the Americas and across GWM.

    在過去的 12 個月中,我們產生了 650 億美元的淨新收費資產,增長了約 5%。在 7 月的前 3 週,我們在美洲和整個 GWM 看到了積極的流動。

  • Net new lending in 2Q was $0.9 billion with continued strong growth in Americas, especially from asset-based lending and mortgages. This was partially offset by continued deleveraging in APAC and, to a lesser extent, in EMEA.

    第二季度新增貸款淨額為 9 億美元,美洲持續強勁增長,尤其是基於資產的貸款和抵押貸款。這部分被亞太地區和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的持續去槓桿化所抵消。

  • Moving on to Asset Management on Page 13. We had a profit before tax of $959 million, which includes the 848 million net gain I referred to. This quarter, JV sale represents the closing chapter of a successful 20-year partnership during which we were able to build and grow our joint venture to become one of the largest real estate management companies in Japan. However, given the level of equity and bond markets, the underlying performance of the business was affected. We saw $12 billion of net outflows mostly in equities, and both our management and performance fees were down. Operating expense was up 1%.

    繼續第 13 頁的資產管理。我們的稅前利潤為 9.59 億美元,其中包括我提到的 8.48 億美元的淨收益。本季度,合資企業的出售標誌著 20 年成功合作關係的結束,在此期間,我們能夠建立和發展我們的合資企業,成為日本最大的房地產管理公司之一。然而,鑑於股票和債券市場的水平,業務的基本表現受到影響。我們看到 120 億美元的淨流出主要是股票,我們的管理費和績效費都下降了。營業費用增長 1%。

  • DIB on Page 14 had a profit before tax of $410 million, delivering a return on attributed equity of 15%, excluding litigation. Global Markets revenue increased by 10% or 4% underlying. The increase was primarily driven by our rates and FX businesses as well as record 2Q in financing, which was driven by increases in equity financing and clearing.

    第 14 頁的 DIB 的稅前利潤為 4.1 億美元,不包括訴訟的歸屬權益回報率為 15%。全球市場收入基本增長 10% 或 4%。這一增長主要是由我們的利率和外匯業務以及創紀錄的第二季度融資推動的,這是由股權融資和清算的增加推動的。

  • Global Banking revenues were down 57% to $377 million, with the global fee pool down by 51% as both advisory and capital markets were down. We managed our risk well, and included in the numbers, we had net mark-to-market losses of around $70 million across LCM, corporate loans and CRE. There is no development in July that has meaningfully affected our marks, but we haven't seen a change in market conditions.

    全球銀行業務收入下降 57% 至 3.77 億美元,全球費用池下降 51%,原因是諮詢和資本市場均出現下滑。我們很好地管理了我們的風險,並且包括在數字中,我們在 LCM、公司貸款和 CRE 方面的淨市值損失約為 7000 萬美元。 7 月份沒有任何進展對我們的分數產生重大影響,但我們沒有看到市場狀況發生變化。

  • Operating expense was down 1% ex litigation and FX on lower variable compensation, offsetting higher technology expenses and inflationary pressure on salaries.

    由於較低的可變薪酬,運營費用在訴訟和外匯前下降了 1%,抵消了較高的技術費用和工資的通脹壓力。

  • On Page 15. Moving to P&C, the leading bank in Switzerland. P&C profit before tax was CHF 398 million with strong business momentum and good cost control. The year-on-year comparison was impacted by credit loss releases and nonrecurring real estate gains in the second quarter of 2021. Total revenues were up 2% year-on-year with increases across the board in NII, recurring and transaction-based income. Net interest income rose by 5%, mainly driven by deposit revenues due to higher deposit margins as a result of rising interest rates as well as deposit management actions.

    在第 15 頁。搬到瑞士領先的銀行 P&C。財險稅前利潤為 3.98 億瑞士法郎,業務發展勢頭強勁,成本控制良好。同比比較受到 2021 年第二季度信貸損失釋放和非經常性房地產收益的影響。總收入同比增長 2%,NII、經常性和基於交易的收入全面增長.淨利息收入增長 5%,主要是由於利率上升和存款管理行動導致存款利潤率上升,導致存款收入增加。

  • Transaction-based income increased 4% on higher revenues from credit card and FX transactions, reflecting an increase in travel spending by our clients. Recurring net fee income was up 8%, including higher revenues from $2.4 billion of net new investment product inflows over the past 12 months.

    由於信用卡和外匯交易的收入增加,基於交易的收入增長了 4%,這反映了我們客戶的旅行支出增加。經常性淨費用收入增長 8%,其中包括過去 12 個月新增投資產品淨流入 24 億美元帶來的收入增加。

  • For the quarter, Personal Banking net new investment product flows were $0.5 billion and annualized growth rate of 8%. The credit loss expense was $33 million compared with $42 million credit loss released a year ago.

    本季度,個人銀行新投資產品淨流量為 5 億美元,年化增長率為 8%。信用損失費用為 3300 萬美元,而一年前公佈的信用損失為 4200 萬美元。

  • Cost ex-litigation were down 1% on a lower personnel expense. This was largely offset by increased investments in technology as we continue to exit on digital strategy.

    由於人員費用降低,訴訟前成本下降了 1%。隨著我們繼續退出數字戰略,這在很大程度上被技術投資的增加所抵消。

  • On the last slide, Page 16. We maintained a strong capital position this quarter well above our guidance, while continuing to distribute capital according to our plans. As of the end of June, our CET1 capital ratio was 14.2% and our CET1 leverage ratio was 4.37%.

    在最後一張幻燈片上,第 16 頁。本季度我們保持了強勁的資本狀況,遠高於我們的指導,同時繼續根據我們的計劃分配資本。截至6月底,本行CET1資本充足率為14.2%,CET1槓桿率為4.37%。

  • The sequential CET1 capital increase includes a 0.3 billion post-tax benefits in connection with the reclassification of an HQLA portfolio from fair value through OCI to amortized costs. As you recall, we announced in our February Strategic Update our growth plans in banking and investment management in the U.S., including the wealth funds transaction and organic growth initiatives. This transformative change in strategy requires the reclassification of this portfolio.

    連續的 CET1 增資包括與將 HQLA 投資組合從公允價值通過 OCI 重新分類為攤餘成本相關的 3 億稅後收益。您還記得,我們在 2 月份的戰略更新中宣布了我們在美國銀行和投資管理方面的增長計劃,包括財富基金交易和有機增長計劃。戰略的這種變革性變化需要對該投資組合進行重新分類。

  • Turning to the CET1 capital ratio walk and starting at 14.3% at the end of last quarter. Net profit contributed 70 basis points offset by capital returns to our shareholders of 60 basis points and 20 basis points from the increase in RWA from $312 billion to $316 billion.

    轉向 CET1 資本比率步行,從上個季度末的 14.3% 開始。淨利潤貢獻了 70 個基點,被股東的資本回報 60 個基點和 RWA 從 3120 億美元增加到 3160 億美元的 20 個基點所抵消。

  • In addition to that, we had a 10 basis point impact of FX, offset by the reclassification I just mentioned. Our capital return story remains strong. In the first half of the year, we have repurchased $3.3 billion. And as of last Friday, the number was $3.7 billion of which $1.6 billion took place in the second quarter. With a payout ratio of 97% for the first half of the year, including dividend accruals and buybacks, we expect to buy back around $5 billion of shares during 2022 as planned.

    除此之外,我們還有 10 個基點的外匯影響,被我剛才提到的重新分類所抵消。我們的資本回報故事依然強勁。今年上半年,我們回購了33億美元。截至上週五,這一數字為 37 億美元,其中 16 億美元發生在第二季度。今年上半年的派息率為 97%,包括應計股息和回購,我們預計在 2022 年按計劃回購約 50 億美元的股票。

  • To conclude our capital-light and diversified business model, proactive risk management and exposure to rising interest rates contributed to the quarter's good performance. We continue to stay close to our clients and execute our long-term strategy while remaining disciplined on costs to deliver sustainable growth.

    總結我們的輕資本和多元化業務模式,積極的風險管理和利率上升的風險為本季度的良好表現做出了貢獻。我們將繼續與客戶保持密切聯繫並執行我們的長期戰略,同時保持對成本的嚴格控制以實現可持續增長。

  • With that, let's open up for questions.

    有了這個,讓我們打開問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question is from Magdalena Stoklosa from Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Magdalena Stoklosa。

  • Magdalena Lucja Stoklosa - MD

    Magdalena Lucja Stoklosa - MD

  • I've got 2 questions. One regarding the NII trajectory and sensitivity and another one on the net new fee generation inflows into the -- into wealth and what you're thinking about it going forward.

    我有 2 個問題。一個關於 NII 軌跡和敏感性,另一個關於淨新費用產生流入 - 進入財富以及你對未來的看法。

  • So on the NII, your sensitivity kind of changed slightly versus the last time you've published this. We had a kind of slightly less U.S. dollar sensitivity. And -- but of course, the biggest change is actually coming from Swiss franc and, of course, kind of unsurprisingly so given the rate hike and, of course, kind of very different rate trajectory in Switzerland from here. But could you kind of run us through how this is going to pan out on a more of a quarterly basis? Because, of course, your initial sensitivity to Swiss franc interest rate is slightly negative given the Central Bank liquidity and also your deposit charging practice. How -- and of course, then it's kind of -- it goes up as the rates move above 0. Could you give us a sense how you think that's going to pan out and also on U.S. dollar? Is it really a kind of question of effectively having spent some of that? Your NII has already increased by the 24% in GWM in particular. So that's on NII.

    因此,在 NII 上,您的敏感度與您上次發布此內容時相比略有變化。我們對美元的敏感性略低。而且 - 當然,最大的變化實際上來自瑞士法郎,當然,考慮到加息,當然,瑞士的利率軌跡與這裡截然不同,這也就不足為奇了。但是,您能否讓我們了解一下這將如何在更多季度的基礎上實現?因為,當然,鑑於中央銀行的流動性以及您的存款收費做法,您對瑞士法郎利率的初始敏感性略為負面。當利率升至 0 以上時,它是如何——當然,它是一種——上升。你能否告訴我們你認為這將如何發展以及對美元的影響?這真的是一個有效地花費了一些的問題嗎?尤其是在 GWM,您的 NII 已經增加了 24%。所以這是在 NII 上。

  • And on the inflows, of course, you've got -- I was kind of very pleased to see those inflows in APAC. Could you give us a sense where do they go kind of product-wise and again your view on flows, maybe a little bit going forward? I know you've mentioned Americas in July. But just slightly further out, what's the pipeline looking like?

    當然,關於資金流入,我很高興看到亞太地區的資金流入。您能否告訴我們他們在產品方面的發展方向以及您對流程的看法,也許會向前發展一點?我知道你在七月提到了美洲。但是稍微遠一點,管道是什麼樣的?

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Okay. Thank you, Magdalena. So on the flows and NII, Sarah will take the one on the NII because you're asking for quite some details there. So latter work on that a bit before we give the answer.

    好的。謝謝你,瑪格達萊娜。因此,關於流程和 NII,Sarah 將選擇 NII 上的那個,因為您在那裡要求提供相當多的細節。因此,在我們給出答案之前,後者會對此進行一些研究。

  • So on net new fee-generating assets, yes, we're very happy to see that we -- after working with our clients, looking at the opportunities they had and given the fact that in Asia Pacific, you saw already a kind of a muted behavior around our -- with our clients in terms of the transactions over the last 3 quarters, actually almost for a full year now, that we have been able to secure them to look at managed business. And that's what you see coming through in the net new fee generating assets of 3.3 billion in Asia Pacific. So that is something that we're very happy about.

    因此,在淨新收費資產方面,是的,我們很高興看到我們 - 在與客戶合作後,查看他們擁有的機會並考慮到在亞太地區,您已經看到了一種在過去 3 個季度(實際上幾乎是一整年)與我們的客戶進行的交易方面,我們周圍的行為保持沉默,我們已經能夠確保他們關注託管業務。這就是您在亞太地區 33 億的淨新收費資產中看到的情況。這是我們非常高興的事情。

  • We also saw 1.1 billion of inflows, net new fee generating assets, for example, here in Switzerland as well. And we saw some higher outflows in the U.S. Now specifically as to what we expect going forward, who knows the future, certainly, in these uncertain times. Having said that, we are very focused on supporting our customers through this mandate, and therefore, net new fee generating assets is a very good alternative with our CIO strategies there. They are attractive. We are continuing to hire, for example, also financial advisers in the U.S. that should also give further rise of increases in net new fee generating assets. And the first week of -- the first weeks of the third quarter, basically look broadly positive across the whole franchise.

    我們還看到了 11 億美元的流入,淨新的收費資產,例如,在瑞士也是如此。我們在美國看到了一些更高的資金外流。現在,特別是關於我們對未來的預期,誰知道未來,當然,在這些不確定的時期。話雖如此,我們非常專注於通過這項任務為我們的客戶提供支持,因此,淨新收費資產是我們在那裡的 CIO 戰略的一個非常好的選擇。他們很有吸引力。例如,我們還在繼續聘請美國的財務顧問,這也應該會進一步增加淨新收費資產的增長。而第一周——第三季度的第一周,在整個球隊中基本上看起來都是積極的。

  • So that's what I can tell you. I can't go much further as to where it will go. But we're really working hard on this. Managed business is what we do, staying close to the clients, recruiting financial advisers also in the U.S., making sure that the mandate business continues to grow there as well. And at least in the first 3 weeks of this quarter -- of this new quarter, we saw a broadly positive flows. Sarah?

    所以這就是我可以告訴你的。至於它會去哪裡,我不能更進一步。但我們真的在這方面努力。託管業務是我們所做的,與客戶保持密切聯繫,也在美國招聘財務顧問,確保委託業務也繼續在那裡增長。至少在本季度的前 3 週——在這個新季度,我們看到了廣泛的積極流動。莎拉?

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • Yes. So on NII, I think what you're noticing and it's not surprising is that in the U.S., because we have already seen some of the changes, the sensitivity decreases and that is, I would say, mathematically always to happen. And then, of course, we had the events in Switzerland, which were not expected as of last quarter and that's come in.

    是的。所以在 NII 上,我認為你注意到並且不足為奇的是,在美國,因為我們已經看到了一些變化,所以敏感性降低了,我想說,數學上總是會發生。然後,當然,我們在瑞士舉辦了活動,截至上個季度並沒有預料到這些活動已經到來。

  • So in terms of like how that translates for us, the first thing that I would say is that the guidance that we gave last quarter stands on a static balance sheet basis as we gave it last quarter. And if you want to dig a little bit into what has happened. You heard the excellent numbers that I mentioned, the 24% year-on-year up in GWM, sequentially 11%. The increase in margin by 60%. The performance was strong. And our actual betas were lower than our modeled betas. So that was on the U.S.

    因此,就這對我們而言,我要說的第一件事是,我們上個季度給出的指導是基於我們上個季度給出的靜態資產負債表。如果你想深入了解發生了什麼。您聽到了我提到的出色數字,GWM 同比增長 24%,環比增長 11%。利潤率增加了 60%。表現很強勁。而且我們的實際貝塔值低於我們的模型貝塔值。所以那是在美國

  • In Switzerland, what we did is what we should have done, which is we, of course, translated to the clients as needed and the changes in the rates that we experienced. We have always said that being close to 0 or a 0 is not the best place for us on the right curve in Switzerland. And the good news, though is that at least the expectation today is that we would stay probably a very little time in that zone and we'll be able to benefit from the tailwind once we are into the positive territories.

    在瑞士,我們所做的就是我們應該做的,這當然是我們根據客戶的需要和我們所經歷的費率變化來翻譯。我們一直說,接近 0 或 0 並不是我們在瑞士正確曲線上的最佳位置。好消息是,至少今天的預期是,我們可能會在那個區域停留很短的時間,一旦我們進入積極的領域,我們將能夠從順風中受益。

  • Magdalena Lucja Stoklosa - MD

    Magdalena Lucja Stoklosa - MD

  • So we're likely to see kind of probably a couple of quarters of more of a stable alternatively even the kind of headwinds to the NII before probably, let's just say, mid-next year, that kind of sensitivity coming through, maybe even the beginning, depending where SMB actually ends up.

    因此,我們可能會看到可能會出現幾個季度以上的穩定,或者甚至可能之前對 NII 的逆風,比如說,明年年中,這種敏感性會出現,甚至可能是開始,取決於 SMB 實際結束的位置。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Yes. Well, very -- well, I don't think like major headwinds, honestly. So I'm not sure where that comes from. But if that has to do with the fact that the SMB is still at minus 25 basis points and that is a situation where on one side, on the loan side, therefore, resident deposit side, we're at minus 25 basis points. So we can't charge more. Clearly, the pricing that -- the way we have done our pricing there, it was not at a full minus 75 basis points anyway, right, so -- because we very much look at the client side there. So from that perspective, if the SMB does not further hike, yes, it may be a bit of a downtick, but I wouldn't talk about headwinds there, honestly. So...

    是的。嗯,非常 - 好吧,老實說,我不認為是主要的逆風。所以我不確定這是從哪裡來的。但是,如果這與 SMB 仍處於負 25 個基點的事實有關,那麼一方面,在貸款方面,因此,在居民存款方面,我們處於負 25 個基點。所以我們不能收取更多費用。顯然,定價 - 我們在那裡進行定價的方式,無論如何都不是完全負 75 個基點,對,所以 - 因為我們非常關注那裡的客戶端。所以從這個角度來看,如果 SMB 不進一步上漲,是的,它可能會有點下跌,但老實說,我不會談論那裡的逆風。所以...

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的 Chris Hallam。

  • Chris Hallam - Equity Analyst

    Chris Hallam - Equity Analyst

  • So just 2 questions. Firstly, just a follow-up on this NII point. I guess to sort of put it into numbers, the net interest margin in Global Wealth Management was around 220 bps in Q2. It's up around 40 bps versus this time last year. So do you have a sense for how much more of that margin could expand by both sort of over the next couple of years? That would be my first question.

    所以只有2個問題。首先,只是對這個 NII 點的跟進。我想用數字來表示,全球財富管理的淨息差在第二季度約為 220 個基點。與去年的這個時候相比,它上漲了大約 40 個基點。那麼您是否知道在接下來的幾年中,這兩種利潤會增加多少?那將是我的第一個問題。

  • And then second, you mentioned client sentiment remains subdued in Q3 so far. And I just wondered if there's any regional nuances within that overall picture or whether that's a fairly consistent global backdrop.

    其次,您提到到目前為止,第三季度客戶情緒仍然低迷。我只是想知道在整體情況下是否存在任何區域細微差別,或者這是否是一個相當一致的全球背景。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Yes. So as always, so if you look at how clients have currently allocated their investments, we have not seen a massive change away from cash, also not into cash. So last year, it was like 22% in cash, now it's like 23% in cash. So that's not where we see it really. If you look at investor sentiment, we do see a decrease of that sentiment with Asia being more optimistic and across the different regions. So that's a little bit the sentiment around it. In terms of the flows, I just indicated that the first 3 weeks of the third quarter, we saw broadly positive flows coming through.

    是的。和往常一樣,如果你看看客戶目前是如何分配他們的投資的,我們並沒有看到從現金到現金的巨大變化。所以去年,它是 22% 的現金,現在是 23% 的現金。所以這不是我們真正看到的地方。如果您查看投資者情緒,我們確實看到這種情緒有所下降,因為亞洲和不同地區更加樂觀。所以這就是圍繞它的一點點情緒。就流量而言,我剛剛指出,第三季度的前 3 週,我們看到了廣泛的正流量。

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • So in terms of the NII, we are not going to guide further on the precision of what the deposit margin is going to be, but there certainly could be additional upside.

    因此,就 NII 而言,我們不會進一步指導存款保證金的精確度,但肯定會有額外的上漲空間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Kian Abouhossein from JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Kian Abouhossein。

  • Kian Abouhossein - MD and Head of the European Banks Equity Research Team

    Kian Abouhossein - MD and Head of the European Banks Equity Research Team

  • Yes. Good to have you at UBS, Sarah. Two questions. First of all, if I look at the numbers, the thing that strikes me today is that you're underperforming U.S. peers in all IB areas and you're underperforming in U.S. Wealth Management, Morgan Stanley, which is comparable. So clearly, I don't want to make just about the second quarter in terms of future market share movements, but just trying to understand from your perspective because I'm sure on the Executive Board, you discussed it why you think you underperformed in equities, fixed income, IBD, U.S. Wealth, and I would even say Europe wealth against (inaudible) yesterday.

    是的。很高興有你在瑞銀,莎拉。兩個問題。首先,如果我看一下這些數字,今天讓我印象深刻的事情是,你在所有 IB 領域的表現都遜於美國同行,而你在美國財富管理公司摩根士丹利的表現也不佳,這是可比的。很明顯,我不想就第二季度的未來市場份額走勢做出預測,而只是想從你的角度理解,因為我確信在執行委員會,你討論了為什麼你認為你在股票,固定收益,IBD,美國財富,我什至會說歐洲財富昨天反對(聽不清)。

  • Second question is regarding -- again, coming back to wealth management, Asia deleveraging. Is that stopping? Or is the second derivative changing? And can you talk a little bit more about, again, advisers in that area as well considering your advisers are still declining? And if I may take it slightly further, clearly, the new change in the structure of wealth management in terms of management itself with IB part taking a bigger role. Just wondering how that is changing since within Wealth.

    第二個問題是關於——再次回到財富管理,亞洲去槓桿化。這是停止嗎?還是二階導數發生變化?考慮到您的顧問仍在下降,您能否再談談該領域的顧問?如果我可以稍微進一步,很明顯,財富管理結構的新變化就管理本身而言,IB部分發揮了更大的作用。只是想知道自財富內部以來情況如何變化。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Okay. Thank you, Kian. I'll answer and then Sarah can fill in. So I'll start with the second one. So the deleveraging in Asia Pacific, last quarter, we saw continued deleveraging of minus 3.3 billion in Asia Pacific in net new loans. Who knows, honestly. It really depends on how things develop. But I do expect that towards the end of the third quarter and certainly in the fourth quarter that there will be much more optimistic news coming from China and with that, Asia. So I do expect that on the back of a confirmation of the political leadership in China, and with that, the confirmation of the economic policies in China and with that also further lifting of restrictions around COVID that the whole Asia area will basically get a bit of an uplift and will pick things up. And with that, I do expect also then the deleveraging to stop at the moment in time.

    好的。謝謝你,基安。我會回答,然後 Sarah 可以填寫。所以我將從第二個開始。因此,亞太地區的去槓桿化,上個季度,我們看到亞太地區持續去槓桿化,淨新增貸款為負 33 億。誰知道,老實說。這真的取決於事情如何發展。但我確實預計,在第三季度末,當然在第四季度,來自中國和亞洲的消息將會更加樂觀。因此,我確實希望在中國政治領導層得到確認的基礎上,中國經濟政策得到確認,以及進一步解除對 COVID 的限制,整個亞洲地區基本上都會得到一點的隆起,並會撿起東西。有了這個,我也確實希望去槓桿化會及時停止。

  • Now will it continue at this moment in time? We don't have numbers, so I can't update you as to what is happening right now. But you saw the minus 3.3 billion for the quarter. So with the decreasing market levels, you can expect them through the margins, also to have to repay some of our loans. So I think that's kind of the direct relationship that you can expect. And that is in Asia, it's a lot of Lombard loans business that we have there. So that's the overall picture there.

    現在它會在這個時刻繼續嗎?我們沒有數字,所以我不能告訴你現在發生了什麼。但是你看到了本季度的負 33 億。因此,隨著市場水平的下降,您可以期望他們通過利潤,也必須償還我們的一些貸款。所以我認為這是你可以期待的直接關係。那是在亞洲,我們在那裡有很多倫巴第貸款業務。這就是那裡的整體情況。

  • Then specifically as to the change in leadership, there is not really a kind of a big change here, honestly, from that perspective. So Tom has done a remarkable job at turning the U.S. into profitability, very much focused on further decreasing the cost/income ratio, improving the scale that we have in the U.S., codeveloping the strategy as to what are the next steps in the U.S. And so remarkable performance there. And after almost 40 years with UBS, it's only natural for him to look at, okay, what's next.

    然後具體到領導層的變化,老實說,從這個角度來看,這裡並沒有真正的大變化。所以湯姆在將美國轉化為盈利方面做得非常出色,他非常專注於進一步降低成本/收入比,提高我們在美國的規模,共同製定美國下一步的戰略。那裡的表現如此出色。在瑞銀工作了將近 40 年後,他很自然地會看看,好吧,接下來會發生什麼。

  • So the way we are now looking at organizing there is that we are pointing Naureen Hassan as an executive team member reporting to me for the region and very much responsible for the original execution of the plants, also for wealth management, but also for IB, also for asset management. And then Iqbal Khan taking the global strategic role for wealth management. That's the way you can read it. And then basically, all of the divisions have a sole lead structure: IB with Rob Karofsky; Asset Management with Suni; and Wealth Management with Iqbal; and then Sabine on the P&C side, but that's local.

    因此,我們現在考慮在那裡組織的方式是,我們將 Naureen Hassan 作為執行團隊成員,向我報告該地區的情況,並非常負責工廠的原始執行,也負責財富管理,還負責 IB,也用於資產管理。然後 Iqbal Khan 擔任財富管理的全球戰略角色。這就是你可以閱讀它的方式。然後基本上,所有部門都有一個唯一的領導結構:IB 和 Rob Karofsky;與 Suni 進行資產管理;和伊克巴爾的財富管理;然後是 P&C 方面的 Sabine,但那是本地的。

  • And then complemented with strong regional leadership. That's the way we go about it because we have an ambitious plan for the U.S. We believe in those plans, and the execution of those plans certainly also from a digital perspective, not only for the digital proposition, but also to support the financial advisers as crucial. And Naureen brings that experience. And together with Iqbal, I think they will be a good team to focus on the U.S. market.

    然後輔以強大的區域領導力。這就是我們這樣做的方式,因為我們對美國有一個雄心勃勃的計劃。我們相信這些計劃,而且這些計劃的執行當然也是從數字的角度來看,不僅是為了數字主張,也是為了支持財務顧問作為至關重要的。 Naureen 帶來了這種體驗。和伊克巴爾一起,我認為他們將是一支專注於美國市場的好團隊。

  • With that, Sarah, maybe some more color to the U.S. performance, the relative performance?

    有了這個,莎拉,也許對美國的表現更有色彩,相對錶現?

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • Yes. So maybe I'll start with a general comment on the IB performance and how the mix has affected it. I think that basically, when you're looking at our performance in the second quarter, we were a reflection of our mix in the same way we were in the first quarter. So in the first quarter, we had tremendous outperformance in a market that was very much towards the solutions and towards equities. And here, we saw the reverse.

    是的。因此,也許我會首先對 IB 表現以及混合如何影響它進行一般性評論。我認為基本上,當您查看我們在第二季度的表現時,我們以與第一季度相同的方式反映了我們的組合。因此,在第一季度,我們在一個非常傾向於解決方案和股票的市場中表現出色。在這裡,我們看到了相反的情況。

  • So we have -- our strengths in APAC was not particularly accretive in terms of the contributions. The U.S. houses were very strong in the U.S. for flow business. As you know, Kian, we have a very capital-efficient model where we are focused on solutions that are additive to the ecosystem and less so on the flow business, which we view as less capital efficient. So we did not participate in that fee pool. We participated to a degree, but less so on a mix adjusted basis.

    所以我們有——就貢獻而言,我們在亞太地區的優勢並沒有特別增加。美國房屋在美國的流量業務非常強大。如您所知,Kian,我們有一個資本效率非常高的模型,我們專注於對生態系統有附加作用的解決方案,而較少關注我們認為資本效率較低的流量業務。所以我們沒有參與那個費用池。我們在一定程度上參與了,但在混合調整的基礎上參與度較低。

  • We did see FX and rates are being strong for us. And financing was a good story in the U.S. and across the world as well as clearing. And then if you do a deal, all the adjustments, and we do that based on the public information that our peers as they reported in markets, we actually end up -- if you adjust for mix, if you adjust for the products as well as the regions and then you end up within the range of the performance. And then if you account for the fact that we are less on the flow side, that really explains the whole story.

    我們確實看到外彙和利率對我們來說很強勁。在美國和世界各地,融資以及清算都是一個好故事。然後,如果您達成交易,進行所有調整,並且我們根據同行在市場上報告的公開信息進行調整,我們實際上最終會 - 如果您調整組合,如果您也調整產品作為地區,然後你最終在表演的範圍內。然後,如果您考慮到我們在流程方面較少的事實,那就真的解釋了整個故事。

  • In terms of U.S. overall, I think that when you look at the situation, you've got a contribution actually that ended up being 40% of the revenue of the firm. So I would certainly not say that, that is not noticeable with, of course, the strong contribution from NII and from the banking business that is being built, and that is already contributing strongly in the U.S.

    就美國整體而言,我認為當你審視這種情況時,你的貢獻實際上最終占公司收入的 40%。因此,我當然不會這麼說,因為 NII 和正在建設的銀行業務的強勁貢獻當然是不引人注意的,而這已經在美國做出了巨大貢獻。

  • We got outflows that were very much tax-related, and so $10 billion because UBS is positioned at the high end of the wealth spectrum, $10 billion versus $7 billion last year. So I would say it's not surprising, but it certainly contributes. And then you have to catch back from that to get into the net basis.

    我們的資金外流與稅收密切相關,因此有 100 億美元,因為瑞銀位於財富譜系的高端,去年為 100 億美元,而去年為 70 億美元。所以我想說這並不奇怪,但它確實有所貢獻。然後你必須從中恢復才能進入網絡基礎。

  • We did see the SMAs and the private being offset. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're seeing positive flows in the U.S. in particular, but we're seeing positive all around in the 3 weeks of July. In June, we also have seen positive outflows in the U.S. So that's another proof point of the fact that April and May were very much tax affected.

    我們確實看到了 SMA 和私人被抵消了。正如我在準備好的講話中提到的那樣,我們尤其看到美國的積極流動,但我們在 7 月的 3 週內看到了積極的一面。 6 月份,我們也看到美國出現正資金外流。因此,這是另一個證明 4 月和 5 月受到稅收影響很大的事實。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Benjamin Goy。

  • Benjamin Goy - Research Analyst

    Benjamin Goy - Research Analyst

  • One question actually on cost and cost control in GWM. I think from a revenue perspective, it's actually improving, meaning NII is going up, which I think is limited. Compensation linked to that and then where the revenues went down. I was just wondering how you see that playing out? Can you really push that through? Or is there just investment needs in the business that keep costs rather high?

    一個關於長城汽車成本和成本控制的問題。我認為從收入的角度來看,它實際上正在改善,這意味著 NII 正在上升,我認為這是有限的。補償與此相關,然後是收入下降的地方。我只是想知道你是怎麼看的?你真的能做到嗎?還是只是企業的投資需求導致成本相當高?

  • And then secondly, I was wondering, I mean you sold Austria and you're in the process of selling Spain. Maybe you can comment on particularly European consolidation and your own business in light of, so to say, the new market outlook from here?

    其次,我想知道,我的意思是你賣掉了奧地利,而你正在賣掉西班牙。也許您可以根據這裡的新市場前景評論特別是歐洲的整合和您自己的業務?

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Sure. Thank you, Benjamin. Could you repeat your first question because at the beginning, we lost a bit of the connection there. So I just want to be sure I got it right.

    當然。謝謝你,本傑明。您能否重複您的第一個問題,因為一開始,我們在那裡失去了一些聯繫。所以我只是想確保我做對了。

  • Benjamin Goy - Research Analyst

    Benjamin Goy - Research Analyst

  • Yes, sure. Now I'm saying net interest income is going up, and there's typically very limited compensation linked to that. On the other hand, fees are falling, where it's more an impact on the adviser compensation. So I was wondering how that plays out going forward also when you think about investment needs and sort of the competitive pressure?

    是的,當然。現在我說淨利息收入正在上升,而與之相關的補償通常非常有限。另一方面,費用正在下降,這對顧問薪酬的影響更大。所以我想知道當你考慮投資需求和競爭壓力時,這會如何發展?

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Okay. So on the first one, so it is a bit of what it is, Benjamin. So the financial advisers are clearly -- I mean, they are so close to our clients that they really act in their interest. And where there is no investments coming through that, that's what it is. They would certainly advise also on cash management, deposits, money markets as well. And they have had very good years and now in this quarter and the fact that the interest income is basically produced at a lower cost income ratio. That is for us looked upon from a corporate perspective, but they are really advising in the best interest of their clients. So not necessarily then per se, looking at for the quarter what their revenues would be.

    好的。所以在第一個,所以它有點像本傑明。因此,財務顧問顯然——我的意思是,他們與我們的客戶如此接近,以至於他們真正為他們的利益行事。在沒有投資通過的地方,就是這樣。他們當然也會就現金管理、存款、貨幣市場提供建議。他們在這個季度和現在都過得很好,而且利息收入基本上是以較低的成本收入比率產生的。這對我們來說是從公司的角度來看的,但他們確實在為客戶的最大利益提供建議。因此,就其本身而言,不一定要看該季度他們的收入是多少。

  • So and the financial adviser distribution model is very important to us. As you know, we have been working on the productivity improvement over the last 3 years and have done really well on that under Tom's leadership. And that is what is important. And the account of financial advisers, which you mentioned is one that we certainly look at. But since 3 years, the account has gone down 6% whereas the profitability of the franchise has increased by 60%.

    因此,財務顧問的分配模式對我們來說非常重要。如您所知,過去 3 年我們一直致力於提高生產力,並且在 Tom 的領導下做得非常好。這就是重要的。您提到的財務顧問賬戶是我們當然會關注的賬戶。但從 3 年以來,該賬戶下降了 6%,而特許經營的盈利能力增加了 60%。

  • So moving the financial advisers to the higher wealth and supporting them in their productivity. And this specifically, and now I get to your point, ensuring that we invest so that they can be very efficient and advice their clients that they can actually have the products on screen that they can -- well, they have that, but in an even better fashion. That is important.

    因此,將財務顧問轉移到更高的財富並支持他們的生產力。特別是這一點,現在我明白你的意思,確保我們進行投資,以便他們能夠非常高效,並建議他們的客戶他們實際上可以在屏幕上展示他們可以的產品——嗯,他們有,但是在甚至更好的時尚。這很重要。

  • So the whole wealth management, the remap project, where we invest in a digital tooling for the financial adviser is one that is very important that we are committed to because the distribution channel is core to our offering in the U.S.

    因此,我們致力於為財務顧問投資數字工具的整個財富管理、重新映射項目是非常重要的,因為分銷渠道是我們在美國提供的產品的核心。

  • And basically, we had 2 new releases just in the last couple of months and the pickup of those new releases of our digital support is at 94% with our financial advisers. So it shows that we're doing the right thing for them to be more effective with their clients.

    基本上,在過去的幾個月裡,我們發布了 2 個新版本,我們的財務顧問對這些新版本的數字支持的使用率達到了 94%。因此,這表明我們正在為他們做正確的事情,以提高他們對客戶的效率。

  • On Europe, so the way I look at Europe, and I don't think that has really changed, if anything, it's probably worsened. So Europe is not necessarily an area where we expect major wealth creation in comparison to Asia and the U.S. And that's why we have looked at Europe strategically. And we have basically looked at the plan where we can actually support our European businesses from the investment banking side with the right coverage to support the coverage of the -- basically, the family businesses where the wealth creation will be, the entrepreneurs where the wealth creation will be and that is basically a model that we can -- that we don't necessarily need a local activity for in every country.

    關於歐洲,所以我看待歐洲的方式,我認為這並沒有真正改變,如果有的話,它可能會變得更糟。因此,與亞洲和美國相比,歐洲不一定是我們期望創造重大財富的地區。這就是我們從戰略上看待歐洲的原因。我們基本上已經研究了計劃,我們可以從投資銀行方面實際支持我們的歐洲業務,並提供適當的覆蓋範圍以支持覆蓋範圍 - 基本上,財富創造所在的家族企業,財富所在的企業家創造將是,這基本上是我們可以的模式 - 我們不一定需要在每個國家/地區進行本地活動。

  • And then basically, the discussion around where do you want to be then active locally on top of that offering, really depends on whether you can actually generate the scale then locally. And that's how we came to the decisions to sell Austria and Spain.

    然後基本上,圍繞您希望在該產品之上在哪裡進行本地活動的討論,實際上取決於您是否可以在本地實際生成規模。這就是我們做出出售奧地利和西班牙的決定的原因。

  • The other countries, we actually feel are large enough with sufficient scale and growth opportunities for us to continue our activities. But I think that I'm not the only one disappointed in the progress of creating a real banking union, where, in fact, you still need to build so much locally in order to be a local player. That scale is an important factor. And therefore, it really depends on the size of the market for us, whether we continue to also do our local offering there.

    我們實際上認為其他國家足夠大,有足夠的規模和增長機會讓我們繼續我們的活動。但我認為,對建立真正的銀行業聯盟的進程感到失望的不止我一個人,事實上,你仍然需要在本地建立如此多的東西才能成為本地參與者。這種規模是一個重要因素。因此,這實際上取決於我們的市場規模,以及我們是否繼續在那裡提供本地產品。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Tom Hallett from KBW.

    下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Tom Hallett。

  • Thomas Hallett - Analyst

    Thomas Hallett - Analyst

  • I have a couple of questions, please. So firstly, on the Investment Bank, I just wanted to know if there's any LBO hits booked in there? Or is that something we should expect in 3Q instead?

    我有幾個問題,請。所以首先,在投資銀行,我只是想知道那裡是否有任何 LBO 命中?或者這是我們應該在第三季度期待的事情嗎?

  • And then secondly, I'd say broadly, you've demonstrated some good cost flexibility in the quarter. But I guess the concern now is how much flex there is from here should obviously conditions fail to normalize. So what additional levers can be pulled? And what are you currently seeing in terms of cost pressure point?

    其次,我要廣泛地說,您在本季度展示了一些良好的成本靈活性。但我想現在的問題是,如果條件顯然無法正常化,那麼這裡有多少彈性。那麼可以拉出哪些額外的槓桿呢?您目前在成本壓力點方面看到了什麼?

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • So Tom. So the first one, Sarah will answer. The second one, I'll answer it with you right now. So first, it is important to look at the cost-income ratio. That's what we have kind of targeted with you. And we are fairly confident to stay within the range of the cost income ratio given our current model and our current plans.

    所以湯姆。所以第一個,莎拉會回答。第二個,我現在就和你一起回答。所以首先,重要的是要看成本收入比。這就是我們針對您的目標。考慮到我們目前的模式和我們目前的計劃,我們有信心保持在成本收入比率的範圍內。

  • Having said that, we do expect that we do see further flex if there is -- if it is necessary. So we do focus on cost. We're looking at cost as we speak. But we will not sacrifice the investments in the growth plans that we have unless those growth plans really are delayed in terms of the opportunity that they show. So there are some flags there. If we truly feel that some of the growth may not come and clearly, we will -- we could work on that side. And we have a savings plan in place, as you know, which is the $1 billion plan that we announced -- when we announced the strategy. And we are fully on track to deliver the $400 million out of that savings plan this year. So that's an important factor as well to keep our costs under control. And then in the end, there is also such a thing that if the revenues are down, that the bonus accrual will also be down, and that's another factor that is important to manage our cost. So with that, Sarah, first question.

    話雖如此,我們確實希望如果有的話,我們確實會看到進一步的彈性——如果有必要的話。所以我們確實關注成本。我們說話時正在考慮成本。但我們不會犧牲對我們現有的增長計劃的投資,除非這些增長計劃在它們所展示的機會方面確實被推遲了。所以那裡有一些標誌。如果我們真的覺得某些增長可能不會出現而且很明顯,我們會——我們可以在這方面工作。如您所知,我們制定了一項儲蓄計劃,這是我們在宣布該戰略時宣布的 10 億美元計劃。我們完全有望在今年從該儲蓄計劃中交付 4 億美元。因此,這也是控製成本的一個重要因素。最後,還有這樣的事情,如果收入下降,獎金應計也會下降,這是管理我們成本的另一個重要因素。所以,莎拉,第一個問題。

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • Yes. In terms of -- I put on my prepared remarks that we had $70 million net mark-to-market in LCM corporate loans and corporate real estate. So I think that what you asked for was included in that number.

    是的。在我準備好的評論中,我們在 LCM 公司貸款和公司房地產方面有 7000 萬美元的淨市值。因此,我認為您要求的內容已包含在該數字中。

  • I've also added that there was no development in July that has meaningfully affected our marks. And so when you think about that in the context of our market share in B2B 3, this is actually an outcome that is less than what you would have expected based on our market share of B2B 3, and we believe that we have managed our risks well.

    我還補充說,7 月份沒有任何進展對我們的分數產生有意義的影響。因此,當您考慮到我們在 B2B 3 中的市場份額時,這實際上是一個低於您根據我們在 B2B 3 中的市場份額所預期的結果,我們相信我們已經管理了我們的風險出色地。

  • Thomas Hallett - Analyst

    Thomas Hallett - Analyst

  • Okay. And Ralph, just a quick follow-up. So one of the main cost pressure points you're seeing at the moment, maybe regionally back office. What are the kind of key points there, pressure points?

    好的。和拉爾夫,只是一個快速的跟進。因此,您目前看到的主要成本壓力點之一可能是區域後台。那裡有哪些關鍵點,壓力點?

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Well, I mean, so you know that the largest part of our cost base is personnel cost so. And that's a combination of inflation as well as still in some areas, a real tension in the labor markets in the geographies in which we're active. So that's where you see upward pressure on salaries still. And depending on how things unfold, if the inflation becomes stubborn, so to say, and that, in the end, will come through also in general salaries as well also in the areas where there will be less of a label market tension. So that's where you see most of the upward pressure coming through.

    好吧,我的意思是,所以你知道我們成本基礎的最大部分是人員成本。這是通貨膨脹以及在某些領域仍然存在的綜合因素,在我們活躍的地區,勞動力市場的真正緊張局勢。所以這就是你看到工資上漲壓力的地方。取決於事情的發展,如果通貨膨脹變得頑固,可以這麼說,最終,一般工資以及標籤市場緊張程度較低的地區也會出現這種情況。所以這就是你看到大部分上行壓力的地方。

  • There's not a lot we can do about that other than further digitalizing our processes so that we can basically manage the account. What we are really working hard on and indicated in my presentation as well is the engineer account as a percentage of the total of technology spend. With that, we create a lot of productivity, which currently we use to continue to invest, but we could also translate that into a different way. So those are a couple of areas where we see pressure up and productivity gains. So that's how we manage the mix a bit.

    除了進一步數字化我們的流程以便我們基本上可以管理帳戶之外,我們無能為力。我們真正努力工作並在我的演講中指出的是工程師佔技術總支出的百分比。有了這個,我們創造了很多生產力,目前我們用來繼續投資,但我們也可以將其轉化為不同的方式。因此,這些是我們看到壓力增加和生產力提高的幾個領域。這就是我們管理混音的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Flora Bocahut from Jefferies.

    下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Flora Bocahut。

  • Flora A. Benhakoun Bocahut - Equity Analyst

    Flora A. Benhakoun Bocahut - Equity Analyst

  • Yes, the first question I'd like to ask you is on the buyback plan. You confirm today that you stick to the $5 billion buyback for this year. But at this pace, you will probably be finished with this buyback by the time you published Q3 results. So just for understanding here what we should expect, is it possible that you could decide reloading the buyback as early as Q3 results? Or this is something you rule out from today's standpoint already and not to be considered before full year results are published in February next year.

    是的,我想問你的第一個問題是關於回購計劃。你今天確認你今年堅持 50 億美元的回購。但以這種速度,在您發布第三季度業績時,您可能會完成此次回購。因此,只是為了在這裡了解我們應該期待什麼,您是否有可能決定早在第三季度的結果中重新加載回購?或者從今天的角度來看,這是您已經排除的事情,並且在明年 2 月公佈全年結果之前不予考慮。

  • And the second question is going back to the NII. I heard all the comments you made earlier on this call in the U.S., on the Swiss exposure. You used to provide a guidance, at least you did in the previous quarter on the additional NII we should expect for this year. Does that guidance, the 1 billion additional year-on-year NII for this year, does that guidance you hold?

    第二個問題又回到了 NII。我聽到了你早些時候在美國的這次電話會議上對瑞士的曝光發表的所有評論。您曾經提供過指導,至少您在上一季度就我們今年應該預期的額外 NII 提供了指導。您是否持有該指導,即今年增加的 10 億 NII?

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Yes. As you already had in your question, we confirm to buy back around 5 billion of shares, and we're well on our way there. And that's what we will do. Further capital distribution to our shareholders beyond '22, we will basically update the market on the -- with our 4 quarter results. It will be a mix of progressive dividend and share buybacks, but we will see at that moment in time.

    是的。正如您在您的問題中已經提出的那樣,我們確認回購大約 50 億股股票,而且我們正在順利實現這一目標。這就是我們將要做的。在 22 年後向我們的股東進一步分配資本,我們將基本上更新市場 - 我們的 4 個季度業績。這將是累進股息和股票回購的混合體,但我們會在那個時候看到。

  • For now, we are focusing on the share buyback program that we have, which is around 5 billion repurchase of shares. NII, Sarah?

    目前,我們專注於我們擁有的股票回購計劃,即回購約 50 億股股票。妮妮,莎拉?

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • Yes. I already -- in an answer to a previous question, I reconfirmed that we're standing by the guidance as it was given in the last quarter on the static balance sheet.

    是的。我已經 - 在回答上一個問題時,我再次確認我們遵守上一季度在靜態資產負債表上給出的指導。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from Stefan Stalmann from Autonomous Research.

    下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Stefan Stallmann。

  • Stefan-Michael Stalmann - Partner, Swiss and French Banks

    Stefan-Michael Stalmann - Partner, Swiss and French Banks

  • I have 2 questions, please. So the first one on deposits. Your deposit balance in Global Wealth Management has come down quite a bit, 6% during the quarter, quite similar to what we have seen at U.S. peers. Do you have any visibility on where these deposits have actually gone and do you expect more deposit outflows going forward? And can you actually say whether clients have moved out of deposits into, let's say, money market funds or other disintermediate forms of savings. And if that's the case, why have they not gone into asset management products, which I guess if you look at the flows, it has probably not happened.

    我有2個問題,請。所以第一個關於存款的。您在 Global Wealth Management 的存款餘額在本季度下降了 6%,與我們在美國同行看到的情況非常相似。您對這些存款的實際去向有任何了解嗎?您是否預計未來會有更多的存款流出?你真的能說出客戶是否已經將存款轉移到貨幣市場基金或其他非中介形式的儲蓄中。如果是這樣的話,為什麼他們沒有進入資產管理產品,我想如果你看看流量,它可能沒有發生。

  • The second question on liquidity, please. You're facing now changing and probably higher liquidity requirements on the Swiss rules. And I've seen that you say that the impact on these requirements is still quite uncertain, but could you maybe give us an early guidance on whether you see any impact of these new rules on balance sheet or P&L for you?

    請教關於流動性的第二個問題。您現在正面臨瑞士規則不斷變化且可能更高的流動性要求。我看到你說對這些要求的影響仍然很不確定,但你能否給我們一個早期的指導,看看你是否看到這些新規則對你的資產負債表或損益表有任何影響?

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Yes. Stefan, on the second one, I can be short. Basically, the audience is finalized just 3 weeks ago, 4 weeks ago. We are waiting for further guidance from FINMA on that one. And before we have that, we can't update anyone. So we really want to wait for that guidance before we give further updates. Sarah, on the first one on the deposits?

    是的。 Stefan,關於第二個,我可以做空。基本上,觀眾是在 3 週前,4 週前完成的。我們正在等待 FINMA 對此的進一步指導。在我們擁有它之前,我們無法更新任何人。所以我們真的很想在我們提供進一步的更新之前等待那個指導。莎拉,關於存款的第一個?

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • On the deposits, as you noted a little bit in your question, yes, there was some flows into money market. There were some flows into TBL treasuries as people basically took a little bit of duration and are usually very, very high-quality especially government assets. And we would say that given the strength of our savings products, we were able to retain a good amount because when you mentioned a similar performance in the U.S. peers, but we actually don't have the banking, checking products to the extent that they have it. It's definitely something that is important in our plans to grow. So having accomplished a similar percentage given we didn't have that, I think, is a good performance. And in terms of like where specifically we saw the outflows going, it's not that easy to track because some of it went directly to tax. And so you can't actually then see where it comes back.

    關於存款,正如你在問題中提到的一點,是的,有一些資金流入貨幣市場。有一些資金流入 TBL 國庫,因為人們基本上需要一點期限,而且通常是非常、非常高質量的資產,尤其是政府資產。我們會說,鑑於我們的儲蓄產品的實力,我們能夠保留很多,因為當你提到美國同行的類似表現時,但我們實際上沒有銀行,檢查產品到他們有它。這絕對是我們發展計劃中很重要的事情。因此,鑑於我們沒有達到類似的百分比,我認為這是一個很好的表現。就我們具體看到的資金流出去向而言,追踪起來並不容易,因為其中一些資金直接用於徵稅。因此,您實際上無法看到它返回的位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Piers Brown from HSBC.

    下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Piers Brown。

  • Piers Brown - Banks Analyst

    Piers Brown - Banks Analyst

  • Just few questions. One was on the EMEA net new money flows. The outflows of 0.5 billion. I'm just looking at that number and linking it to the disclosure you gave for assets held by Russian residents, which I think has halved in the quarter. And just if this is only limited between those 2 movements. The second question is just on the CET1 movement, whether there's been any significant OCI impact this quarter.

    就幾個問題。其中之一是歐洲、中東和非洲的淨新資金流。流出5億。我只是在查看該數字並將其與您披露的俄羅斯居民持有的資產相關聯,我認為該數字在本季度已減半。只要這僅限於這兩個動作之間。第二個問題只是關於 CET1 運動,本季度是否有任何重大的 OCI 影響。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • OCI, Sarah?

    OCI,莎拉?

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • So what you would see in OCI is simply on some of the currency impact that is running through the CET1 and then that $600 million, and then it is offset by the RWA $5 billion down. And so the net of all of that is the 10 basis points headwind that I mentioned, but not much. And then you have the reclassification that I mentioned, which is actually going the opposite direction and offset it.

    因此,您在 OCI 中看到的只是通過 CET1 運行的一些貨幣影響,然後是 6 億美元,然後被 RWA 減少 50 億美元所抵消。所以所有這一切的淨值是我提到的 10 個基點的逆風,但並不多。然後你有我提到的重新分類,它實際上是在相反的方向上並抵消它。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Yes, Piers, on your question in terms of the decrease in net new fee generating assets for EMEA. Well, we don't go into further detail about this. But yes, part of that is certainly also to do with -- can also have to do with Russian clients.

    是的,皮爾斯,關於您關於歐洲、中東和非洲地區淨新收費資產減少的問題。好吧,我們不會對此進行進一步的詳細介紹。但是,是的,其中一部分肯定也與 - 也可能與俄羅斯客戶有關。

  • Piers Brown - Banks Analyst

    Piers Brown - Banks Analyst

  • Okay. Could I just come back on the OCI question. I think last quarter, you gave a figure of $9 billion for the -- I think that was the liquidity book within the U.S. banking subsidiary, which is mainly treasuries and MBS. I think that was the primary driver of the OCI move you had last quarter. Is that book changed in composition or size in any way? And is that the area that the reclassification is coming from?

    好的。我可以回到 OCI 的問題嗎?我認為上個季度,您給出了 90 億美元的數字——我認為這是美國銀行子公司的流動性賬簿,主要是國債和 MBS。我認為這是您上個季度採取 OCI 舉措的主要驅動力。那本書的組成或大小有什麼變化嗎?那是重新分類的來源嗎?

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • Yes, that's exactly right. It was $9 billion of that $7 billion is the reclassification that I talked about. And what is left is much shorter duration and still extraordinarily high quality being AA and above.

    是的,完全正確。這是我談到的重新分類的 70 億美元中的 90 億美元。剩下的是更短的持續時間,AA 及以上的質量仍然非常高。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Andrew Coombs from Citi.

    下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Andrew Coombs。

  • Andrew Philip Coombs - Director

    Andrew Philip Coombs - Director

  • One question on the targets and then a follow-up on cost flex, please. If you look at the numbers you published today 18.9% return on core Tier 1 and then a 7.6% cost income, but obviously benefits from the 810 million one-off gain on the mix of JV. So if you try and adjust for that, I think you're looking at about an 11.5% return on core Tier 1 for the quarter and about a 75% cost income ratio. So what gives you the confidence that you can certainly beyond this year, still achieve the 15% to 18% and the target cost income 70, 73 as well. Just anything that you can do from an output perspective, assuming that markets don't recover.

    請就目標提出一個問題,然後對成本彈性進行跟進。如果您查看您今天發布的數據,核心一級的回報率為 18.9%,然後是 7.6% 的成本收入,但顯然受益於合資企業組合的 8.1 億一次性收益。因此,如果您嘗試對此進行調整,我認為您看到的是本季度核心一級的回報率約為 11.5%,成本收入比率約為 75%。那麼是什麼給了你信心,你肯定能在今年之後,仍然達到15%到18%的目標成本收入70、73。假設市場沒有復蘇,從產出的角度來看你可以做的任何事情。

  • And then the broader question is coming back to the point on cost flex, we've obviously seen a big step-down in market levels. And yet, when we look at your cost flex litigation, they're back -- they're down 1%, flat or up 1% in every division. There doesn't seem to be a big step change in the cost to accommodate the move down in market levels and accordingly, what it means for your revenues. So anything you could add on cost flex above and beyond what you've already said, please?

    然後更廣泛的問題又回到了成本彈性這一點,我們顯然已經看到市場水平大幅下降。然而,當我們查看您的成本彈性訴訟時,它們又回來了——每個部門下降 1%、持平或上升 1%。成本似乎沒有太大的變化,以適應市場水平的下降,因此,這對您的收入意味著什麼。那麼,除了您已經說過的內容之外,您還可以在成本彈性上添加什麼,好嗎?

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Yes. So Andrew, on the second one, I can be clear. As you know, we are -- we continue to invest, right? So we have plans. We have a strategy. We are investing in our strategy. And where you see some of the cost categories actually being related to revenues. There is also categories that basically, as we have also updated you on our areas of investment. And we are not sacrificing the investments in those growth areas. But if things get worse, we have different levers to pull and then we will pull those levers. So I do think there is sufficient flex.

    是的。所以安德魯,關於第二個,我可以說清楚。如你所知,我們是——我們繼續投資,對吧?所以我們有計劃。我們有一個策略。我們正在投資我們的戰略。您會看到一些成本類別實際上與收入相關。基本上還有一些類別,因為我們還向您更新了我們的投資領域。我們不會犧牲在這些增長領域的投資。但如果情況變得更糟,我們會拉動不同的槓桿,然後我們會拉動這些槓桿。所以我確實認為有足夠的彈性。

  • Having said that, we are comfortable with the guidance around staying within the cost/income range as well as the return range. And Sarah will update you there.

    話雖如此,我們對保持在成本/收入範圍以及回報範圍內的指導感到滿意。莎拉會在那裡更新你。

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • Yes. So I really didn't follow at all your math, because when I do my math, this is what I do. JV sale, $848 million; real estate gains is 46; on the litigation, you would say, it's 221 net; accounting asymmetries is 214. And so you certainly are taking out a little bit, but you get to a number that is in the mid-teens, not at all the low teens. I'll follow up with you.

    是的。所以我真的完全沒有遵循你的數學,因為當我做數學時,這就是我所做的。合資銷售,8.48億美元;房地產收益為46;關於訴訟,你會說,它是 221 淨值;會計不對稱是 214。所以你肯定會拿出一點點,但你得到的數字是十幾歲的中間,而不是低十幾歲的數字。我會跟進你的。

  • Andrew Philip Coombs - Director

    Andrew Philip Coombs - Director

  • No, I think it would just be the accounting asymmetries as well, which I hadn't, which explains the delta. So I guess the follow-on question would be, how long does it take today for those to reverse.

    不,我認為這也只是會計不對稱,我沒有,這解釋了增量。所以我想接下來的問題是,今天需要多長時間才能扭轉局面。

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • Well, the definition of them being asymmetries we don't have like a great way to project them. We do have scenarios. They are sensitive to the shape of the curve. The basis between different currencies and the basis between swaps and LIBOR so you'll have to know what's going to happen to all of those to give you an estimate. But in general, over a long period of time, they should revert back to 0, which is why I suggested that you could consider them.

    好吧,我們沒有將它們定義為不對稱的好方法來投射它們。我們確實有場景。它們對曲線的形狀很敏感。不同貨幣之間的基礎以及掉期和 LIBOR 之間的基礎,因此您必須知道所有這些會發生什麼才能給您一個估計。但總的來說,在很長一段時間內,它們應該會恢復到 0,這就是為什麼我建議你可以考慮它們的原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Anke Reingen from Royal Bank of Canada.

    下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的 Anke Reingen。

  • Anke Reingen - European Banks Analyst

    Anke Reingen - European Banks Analyst

  • I just have 2 follow-up questions. The first is on the cost. I just wanted to confirm that your previous guidance about the 2% ex variable comp and FX and litigation still stands? Or you've seen the inflation pressure is too high. And I guess -- I mean, I guess, suppose you said it got worse, you will believe us. I guess that bodes for us to that as well. And then just on the leveraged finance and the mark-to-market. The 70 million you took in the quarter, I guess that's also relative to the 700 million you disclosed in your report about commitments that have not yet been distributed and can you just confirm your comment about no further marks in July, would you refer to the 700 million as well.

    我只有 2 個後續問題。首先是關於成本。我只是想確認您之前關於 2% ex variable comp 和 FX 和訴訟的指導仍然有效嗎?或者你已經看到通脹壓力太高了。我猜——我的意思是,我猜,假設你說情況變得更糟,你會相信我們。我想這對我們來說也是一個好兆頭。然後只是槓桿融資和按市值計價。您在本季度獲得的 7000 萬,我想這也是相對於您在報告中披露的尚未分配的承諾的 7 億,您能否確認您對 7 月份沒有進一步標記的評論,您是否參考7億也是。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Yes. So Anke, on costs. So as I was indicating, there's certainly upward pressure coming from intense labor markets, coming from inflation as well, and that seems to stay longer than expected. So from that perspective, we're really looking at all categories at this moment in time. If you look at our cost increases, then we would be running pre-FX, pre-everything around 2.8%. We are working hard to moving that down. So it will be in the 2s, but whether it's exactly the 2, that's what we're working on.

    是的。所以安科,關於成本。因此,正如我所指出的,緊張的勞動力市場以及通貨膨脹肯定會帶來上行壓力,而且這種壓力似乎比預期的持續時間更長。所以從這個角度來看,我們現在真的在關注所有類別。如果你看看我們的成本增加,那麼我們將在 FX 之前運行,在 2.8% 左右。我們正在努力將其降低。所以它會在 2s 中,但無論是 2,這就是我們正在做的事情。

  • So for us, the most important element is the cost income ratio, which is basically the way you measure the efficiency of your total and we're confident staying in that. And as I said, managing costs have different components. And we also have on one side to come -- the inflation that pushes up the cost pre-FX. But the other side, we can all recognize that at this moment, FX also has to do with the rate environment. And therefore, FX is not just an FX change, a bit of an FX exchange, but we do look at FX as well as what helps us managing costs. Sarah, on the GWM? So I didn't know where the 700 was coming from.

    所以對我們來說,最重要的因素是成本收入比,這基本上是衡量總效率的方式,我們有信心堅持下去。正如我所說,管理成本有不同的組成部分。而且我們還有一方面——推高外匯前成本的通貨膨脹。但另一方面,我們都可以認識到,此時的外匯也與匯率環境有關。因此,外匯不僅僅是外匯變化,有點外匯交易,但我們確實關注外匯以及幫助我們管理成本的因素。莎拉,在 GWM 上?所以我不知道700是從哪裡來的。

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • Yes. So basically, we did look carefully at our balance sheet commitments and both on and off our balance sheet, but effectively, we have come down actually significantly from a year ago in terms of our commitments in the space. And of course, yes, we are considering everything that is committed in the comments that we provide and in the marks that we have done. So yes.

    是的。因此,基本上,我們確實仔細查看了我們的資產負債表承諾以及資產負債表內外的承諾,但實際上,就我們在該領域的承諾而言,我們實際上比一年前大幅下降。當然,是的,我們正在考慮在我們提供的評論和我們所做的標記中承諾的所有內容。所以是的。

  • Anke Reingen - European Banks Analyst

    Anke Reingen - European Banks Analyst

  • Okay. Yes, just I guess you say in the quarterly report that 700 million of commitment's not yet been distributed, but I guess that captures it. Okay.

    好的。是的,只是我猜你在季度報告中說 7 億承諾尚未分發,但我想這可以捕捉到它。好的。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Yes, that will always be in that business, right? So I mean, you're on the right. And at this a moment in time, also at the quarter end, you always have positions that are not fully distributed. But as per the end of the quarter, across the 3 different books that we have indicated, leverage, corporate lending as well as real estate, the 72 million markdown is what we and also the accountants feel is the right representation of the value, and that's where we are. It kind of shows that we have been able to manage that book down, and that is a pretty conservative book.

    是的,那將永遠在那個行業,對吧?所以我的意思是,你在右邊。在這個時刻,也是在季度末,你總是有沒有完全分配的頭寸。但根據本季度末,在我們指出的 3 種不同的賬簿中,槓桿、企業貸款以及房地產,7200 萬降價是我們和會計師認為是價值的正確代表,並且這就是我們所在的地方。這表明我們已經能夠管理這本書,這是一本相當保守的書。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Nicolas Payen from Kepler Cheuvreux.

    下一個問題來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Nicolas Payen。

  • Nicolas Payen - Equity Research Analyst

    Nicolas Payen - Equity Research Analyst

  • I have 2 questions, please, 2 follow-ups. The first one would be on net inflows in GWM. Just net inflows and leverage tend to evolve in the same way actually. And for Americas and Asia, we see them going in different directions. So I wanted to know if there is any particular reason for that.

    我有2個問題,拜託,2個跟進。第一個是關於 GWM 的淨流入。實際上,淨流入和槓桿往往以相同的方式發展。對於美洲和亞洲,我們看到它們朝著不同的方向發展。所以我想知道是否有任何特殊原因。

  • And the second question, a bit more perspective. I know that Wealthfront is not yet integrated within UBS, but maybe just a quick qualitative comment on how Wealthfront is doing in such a volatile environment regarding inflows or trading on the more retail side?

    第二個問題,多一點視角。我知道 Wealthfront 尚未與 UBS 整合,但也許只是對 Wealthfront 在如此動蕩的環境中在流入或更多零售方面的交易表現如何做一個快速的定性評論?

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Thank you, Nicolas. I really want to kind of refrain from making comments as to how Wealthfront is doing because the transaction has not been consumed. So it's not for us to update you on how they are doing. So -- but I can tell you that we have prepared everything for this acquisition to be executed, and we're waiting for regulatory support, which is the normal course of business, how you go through regulatory support. So that's one.

    謝謝你,尼古拉斯。我真的想避免對 Wealthfront 的表現發表評論,因為交易尚未被消費。因此,我們不向您通報他們的最新情況。所以 - 但我可以告訴你,我們已經為這次收購的執行做好了一切準備,我們正在等待監管支持,這是正常的業務過程,你如何獲得監管支持。所以這是一個。

  • On the leverage versus the net flows. I honestly think in terms of the U.S., this is just very much driven by the tax flows. So on one side, we see real lending growth a lot in mortgages. That has nothing to do with flows then, therefore, we're very -- our mortgage book grows quite well in the U.S. for ultra-high and high net worth individuals. And that's a business that we -- that has been growing over the last quarters. So that is not necessarily related to your flows. And as Sarah already explained, the negative flows in the U.S. are largely explained by a higher-than-expected outflow related to tax.

    關於槓桿與淨流量。老實說,就美國而言,這在很大程度上是由稅收流量驅動的。因此,一方面,我們看到抵押貸款的實際貸款增長很多。那與流動無關,因此,我們非常 - 我們的抵押貸款在美國增長得相當好。對於超高和高淨值個人而言。這是我們在過去幾個季度一直在增長的業務。因此,這不一定與您的流程有關。正如莎拉已經解釋的那樣,美國的負流量主要是由於與稅收有關的流出量高於預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Goel Amit from Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Goel Amit。

  • Amit Goel - Co-Head of European Banks Equity Research

    Amit Goel - Co-Head of European Banks Equity Research

  • So I've got some follow-up questions on the NII. The first question is I think you said that you stand by the previous guidance for NII for GWM for the remainder of this year. So I think Q2 relative to previous guidance was a little bit below. So just to check, so that would suggest a bit more for Q3 and Q4 than what you previously thought?

    所以我有一些關於 NII 的後續問題。第一個問題是,我認為您說過您將在今年剩餘時間內堅持之前對 GWM 的 NII 指導。所以我認為第二季度相對於之前的指導略低於預期。所以只是檢查一下,這對第三季度和第四季度的建議比你以前想像的要多一點?

  • And secondly, I just wanted to understand a bit more in terms of -- I think, previously, the guide was for about a 15% sequential growth in NII for GWM. What the difference was in terms of why it ended up being up 11%, which obviously is still a strong improvement, but what the drivers or difference was there, especially given the comment that model deposit betas were less than anticipated.

    其次,我只是想進一步了解——我認為,以前,該指南是針對 GWM 的 NII 連續增長約 15%。區別在於為什麼它最終上漲了 11%,這顯然仍然是一個很大的改進,但驅動因素或區別是什麼,特別是考慮到模型存款 beta 低於預期的評論。

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • The guidance was specifically a static balance sheet guidance.

    該指南特別是靜態資產負債表指南。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Static balance sheet as per the balance sheet at the end of the first quarter. That's the way the guidance was given.

    根據第一季度末的資產負債表的靜態資產負債表。這就是給予指導的方式。

  • Amit Goel - Co-Head of European Banks Equity Research

    Amit Goel - Co-Head of European Banks Equity Research

  • Okay. So the decline in deposit balances is that different?

    好的。那麼存款餘額的下降有那麼不同嗎?

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • That's right. So that's just the way we had given the guidance. And so after that, you can build in your assumptions on a nonstatic balance sheet, which is reality of life.

    這是正確的。這就是我們提供指導的方式。所以在那之後,你可以在非靜態資產負債表上建立你的假設,這是生活的現實。

  • Amit Goel - Co-Head of European Banks Equity Research

    Amit Goel - Co-Head of European Banks Equity Research

  • Okay. Got you. And so is the implied for Q3, 4 now a bit higher than previously thought? Or is it still based on the balance sheet as of Q1?

    好的。得到你。那麼現在第三季度、第四季度的隱含值是否比以前想像的要高一些?還是仍然基於第一季度的資產負債表?

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • Yes. Again, we chose because at some point, you get into, and there is only 2 quarters and there is only 1 quarter. So we just decided to stand by the guidance as it was done.

    是的。再次,我們選擇是因為在某些時候,你進入,只有 2 個季度,只有 1 個季度。因此,我們只是決定在指導完成後堅持下去。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Adam Terelak from Mediobanca.

    下一個問題來自 Mediobanca 的 Adam Terelak。

  • Adam Terelak - Banks Analyst

    Adam Terelak - Banks Analyst

  • So just a couple of follow-ups from me. On the U.S. tax outflows, you mentioned it in terms of the net new fee generating assets in the U.S., but also attached to some of the decrease in deposits. So I just wanted to get a lot more color how that 10 billion is split across the two. And why is that coming out of fee-generating assets? Why is it not just deposits being used to pay off tax bills. So just a little bit of color there would be great.

    所以只是我的一些後續行動。關於美國的稅收流出,您提到了美國的淨新費用產生資產,但也與存款減少有關。所以我只是想獲得更多的顏色,這 100 億是如何分配給兩者的。為什麼這是來自收費資產?為什麼不只是將存款用於支付稅款。所以只要一點點顏色就會很棒。

  • And then on the buyback, I hear your message on the $5 billion, you're committing to that. Clearly, you need to go back into the market for the employee share schemes. So could you just give us a color of what sort of volume might be attached to that on top of $5 billion. And then how we should think about this heading into year-end. Clearly, at some point, you're going to go from buying 20% ABV every single day to being very much out of the market when you complete that program just how to think about managing those volumes through the year-end.

    然後在回購時,我聽到你關於 50 億美元的信息,你正在承諾。顯然,您需要重新進入員工持股計劃市場。那麼,您能否告訴我們在 50 億美元之上可能附加什麼樣的交易量。然後我們應該如何考慮到年底。顯然,在某個時候,您將從每天購買 20% 的 ABV 轉變為在完成該計劃時非常退出市場,只是考慮如何在年底之前管理這些數量。

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • So as you can tell, we are ahead of plan being at $3.7 million as of last Friday, and it's part early because we know exactly what we have to do, and we also are conscious of not leaving things for the last minute. And so we -- I don't have for you the specific number regarding the employee piece. But what I can tell you is that we consider all of that and that we, again, reiterate our ability to complete the $5 billion for the full year. So I'll ask IR to follow up on that specific number.

    如您所知,截至上週五,我們提前完成了 370 萬美元的計劃,這還為時過早,因為我們確切地知道我們必須做什麼,而且我們也意識到不會在最後一刻留下任何東西。所以我們 - 我沒有關於員工部分的具體數字。但我可以告訴你的是,我們考慮了所有這些,並且我們再次重申我們有能力完成全年的 50 億美元。所以我會要求 IR 跟進這個具體的數字。

  • Adam Terelak - Banks Analyst

    Adam Terelak - Banks Analyst

  • Great. Just on the buyback. Can I confirm, is the limiting factor here still just discussing ABV? Or are we still kind of $5 billion and we're going to move on to next year before talking again?

    偉大的。剛回購。我可以確認一下,這裡的限制因素仍然只是討論 ABV 嗎?還是我們仍然有 50 億美元,我們要在明年再談之前繼續前進?

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • I would say it's not about limiting factors. We guided to $5 billion, and we will execute $5 billion.

    我想說這與限制因素無關。我們引導到 50 億美元,我們將執行 50 億美元。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Exactly. And we will update the market as per the end of the fourth quarter. So that's where we are.

    確切地。我們將在第四季度末更新市場。這就是我們所在的位置。

  • And then the other question was on the flows, deposits versus NIM, new fee generating assets and taxes.

    然後另一個問題是關於流量、存款與 NIM、新的收費資產和稅收。

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • So most of our clients have several accounts. So we have seen the $10 million of flows, they have come a lot actually from some duration mandates. And not to say that they have come only from that. But we have seen that the clients were not just able to do that out of deposits.

    因此,我們的大多數客戶都有多個帳戶。因此,我們已經看到了 1000 萬美元的資金流,它們實際上來自一些期限要求。並不是說他們只是從那裡來的。但我們已經看到,客戶不僅能夠從存款中做到這一點。

  • Adam Terelak - Banks Analyst

    Adam Terelak - Banks Analyst

  • Okay. So selling product to pay taxes?

    好的。所以賣產品來交稅?

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • Some, yes.

    有些,是的。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • It's also about tax optimization as to when you sell your portfolio as well in the U.S. So they measure very specifically, and they basically make the calculations between whether to pay it out of deposits or whether to pay out of invested assets. It's well optimized.

    這也與您何時在美國出售您的投資組合有關稅收優化,因此他們非常具體地衡量,並且他們基本上在是否從存款中支付或是否從投資資產中支付之間進行計算。它優化得很好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Jeremy Sigee from BNP Exane.

    下一個問題來自 BNP Exane 的 Jeremy Sigee。

  • Jeremy Sigee - Equity Analyst

    Jeremy Sigee - Equity Analyst

  • Two follow-ups, please. I take your point on the NII guidance and the forward curve. You're standing by the existing comment. You don't want to get into 2 quarter, 1 quarter. But I just wonder if you could give us a sense of what that looks like going into 2023, what you expect the uplift from the forward curve as it currently stands to be in 2023 compared to 2022. That's my first question.

    請跟進兩個。我同意你對 NII 指導和前進曲線的看法。你支持現有的評論。你不想進入第二季度,第一季度。但我只是想知道您是否可以讓我們了解進入 2023 年的情況,以及與 2022 年相比,目前 2023 年的遠期曲線的上升情況。這是我的第一個問題。

  • And the second one is a little bit nitty gritty. The (inaudible) in Global Wealth Management, the fee-generating asset margin is down 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter, whereas for the overall business, the gross margin is up a couple of basis points quarter-on-quarter. Is that just a mix thing to do with the loans are not in there? Or what -- is there anything to comment on in terms of that decline in the fee generating asset margin Q-on-Q?

    而第二個有點小題大做。在全球財富管理(聽不清)中,產生費用的資產利潤率環比下降 2 個基點,而整體業務的毛利率環比上升幾個基點。這與貸款不存在有關嗎?或者什麼 - 關於費用產生的資產利潤率 Q-on-Q 的下降有什麼可評論的?

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Well, we'll probably have to come back to you on that one. So why don't you follow up with the Investor Relations team on the margin itself, Jeremy.

    好吧,我們可能不得不在那個問題上與您聯繫。那麼,傑里米,您為什麼不跟進保證金本身的投資者關係團隊。

  • On the other one, we don't guide beyond '22 on the rate environment, honestly. So I think what we can indicate as to how we manage our book, our deposit book, let me put it that way. Also in the U.S., and this is also to do with our strategy is that, that's also again to do with the requirement to reclassify to fair value OCI, which is that the strategy in the U.S. calls for building a bank next to a wealth manager. And if you build a bank, you build a loan book and you build also a deposit book not just for funding, but also in building deposits as a business. And therefore, the way we go about our deposit pricing, is always one where you look at the commercial opportunity, but also in terms of maximizing the margin and the profitability around it.

    另一方面,老實說,我們不會在 22 年之後對利率環境進行指導。所以我認為我們可以說明我們如何管理我們的賬簿,我們的存款簿,讓我這樣說。同樣在美國,這也與我們的戰略有關,這也與重新分類為公允價值 OCI 的要求有關,即美國的戰略要求在財富管理公司旁邊建立一家銀行.如果你建立了一家銀行,你就建立了一個貸款簿,你也建立了一個存款簿,不僅是為了融資,也是為了建立存款作為一項業務。因此,我們進行存款定價的方式始終是您關注商業機會的方式,也是最大化利潤和盈利能力的方式。

  • So it is not pure a funding vehicle for us as it may have been in the past and therefore, and hence, also the qualification of the HQLA book against it. It is more and more a strategic book for us. Hence, the way we price deposits going forward with impact on NII, really looking at the optimal pricing for that, but also the reclassification of the bonds that we hold against it. So it's all related.

    因此,對於我們來說,它不像過去那樣純粹是一種融資工具,因此,HQLA 書的資格也反對它。對我們來說,它越來越成為一本戰略書籍。因此,我們對存款定價的方式對 NII 的影響,真正著眼於最佳定價,以及我們持有的債券的重新分類。所以這都是相關的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Andrew Lim from Societe Generale.

    下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Andrew Lim。

  • Andrew Lim - Equity Analyst

    Andrew Lim - Equity Analyst

  • So I just wanted to refresh at the IB performance. It is notably weaker than U.S. peers. And I know you say flow business was strong, but really, it was a strong macro quarter. Wouldn't anything else rates and FX. So I'm just a bit surprised by the performance in your own FICC business there. And I just wanted to know from what you could see if there was some kind of like macro -- sorry, geographical explanation for that weakness maybe in Europe and APAC versus the U.S. that could explain that.

    所以我只是想刷新一下 IB 的表現。它明顯弱於美國同行。我知道你說流量業務很強勁,但實際上,這是一個強勁的宏觀季度。不會有其他利率和外匯。所以我對你們自己的 FICC 業務的表現感到有點驚訝。我只是想從你能看到的情況中知道是否存在某種類似宏觀的情況——抱歉,這種弱點的地理解釋可能在歐洲和亞太地區與美國相比,這可以解釋這一點。

  • And then secondly, I'm just wondering about your thoughts on sizing up your treasury portfolio and investing more in bonds. I mean we've talked a bit more about the size of the balance sheet here, having a bearing this past quarter and especially on the deposit size. Is that the main limiting factor for increasing your bond investments there? Or are there great -- is there greater flexibility to upsize there and increase your net interest income?

    其次,我只是想知道你對評估你的國債投資組合和更多地投資於債券的想法。我的意思是,我們在這裡討論了更多關於資產負債表規模的問題,對上個季度的影響,尤其是存款規模。這是增加您在那裡的債券投資的主要限制因素嗎?還是有更好的——是否有更大的靈活性來擴大規模並增加您的淨利息收入?

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • So Andrew, on the first one, again, I think that the way we look at our markets results versus peers as it follows, and that's why we outperformed them in the first quarter and we may -- we lack a bit in the second quarter. And there is basically 2 components to it. The first one is geographical bias where the U.S. peers are much more biased towards the U.S., and we have a global footprint. That is one. And the second one is the exposure to the rates business versus us the exposure to more equities in structured products business. That generally -- I mean, those are the 2 main factors that, if you correct for that, we feel that we are more or less in line with how peers have produced, but headline shows a different factor.

    所以安德魯,在第一個問題上,我認為我們看待市場結果與同行的方式如下,這就是我們在第一季度表現優於他們的原因,我們可能 - 我們在第二季度有所欠缺.它基本上有兩個組件。第一個是地理偏見,美國同行對美國的偏見要大得多,而且我們的足跡遍布全球。那是一個。第二個是利率業務的敞口,而我們在結構性產品業務中更多的股票敞口。這通常 - 我的意思是,如果你糾正這一點,我們認為我們或多或少與同行的生產方式一致,但標題顯示了不同的因素。

  • Having said that, the 10% revenue increase for global markets year-on-year, we feel is a good number. But indeed, we have a different setup in our markets business, as you know, we are aligning our investment bank towards what we want to build over time. And therefore, the markets business specifically in equities is very strategic for us. And we don't build an investment bank for being an investment bank. We are building an ecosystem for investing in which wealth management, asset management and investment banking capabilities are very important in order to grow that, but we don't build an investment bank for being an investment bank.

    話雖如此,全球市場收入同比增長 10%,我們認為這是一個不錯的數字。但事實上,我們在市場業務中有不同的設置,如您所知,我們正在使我們的投資銀行朝著我們想要隨著時間的推移建立的目標調整。因此,特別是股票市場業務對我們來說非常具有戰略意義。我們不是為了成為投資銀行而建立投資銀行。我們正在建立一個投資生態系統,其中財富管理、資產管理和投資銀行能力對於發展這一生態系統非常重要,但我們不是為了成為投資銀行而建立投資銀行。

  • I think that will then also explain some of the activities that we don't have and then some of our peers do have. And in 1 quarter, that makes us outperform them. And in the other quarter, it makes them outperform us. If you just look at the investment bank.

    我認為這也將解釋我們沒有的一些活動,然後我們的一些同行確實有。在 1 個季度內,這使我們的表現優於他們。而在另一個季度,它使他們的表現優於我們。如果你只看投資銀行。

  • The second question, honestly, Andrew, I didn't quite understand what you were trying to ask. Could you repeat.

    第二個問題,老實說,安德魯,我不太明白你想問什麼。你能不能再說一遍。

  • Andrew Lim - Equity Analyst

    Andrew Lim - Equity Analyst

  • Yes, sure. In a rising rate environment, I guess it makes sense to see whether you can upsize bond investments and increase in net interest income, especially given your move to classify some of these bond investments (inaudible) cost. This quarter, we've seen maybe the balance sheet shrinkage and lots of deposits as a limiting factor there. But I mean how do you see that going forward actually, your opportunity to increase bond investments. Is that purely limited by deposits? Or do you have more flex there to increase it?

    是的,當然。在利率上升的環境中,我想看看你是否可以擴大債券投資並增加淨利息收入是有道理的,特別是考慮到你對其中一些債券投資(聽不清)成本進行分類的舉措。本季度,我們可能已經看到資產負債表收縮和大量存款成為限制因素。但我的意思是你如何看待未來,你增加債券投資的機會。這純粹是受存款限制嗎?或者你有更多的彈性來增加它?

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • The way you can think about it is we have the deposits that we have coming from our customers. We have on the offset some of the loans that we have coming from our customers. And then net of the two would be a securities portfolio, and we do everything with a view to managing the assets and liabilities through replication and making sure that we get to the appropriate duration to manage the risks. And so there is no particular limit in terms of like how big the investment portfolio can be I would say, theoretically. But for us, what's important is that we wouldn't take an unexposed duration risk. And so what we want to have is a match funding that reflects the quality of the deposits that we have and the duration of the loan book that we have.

    您可以考慮的方式是我們擁有來自客戶的存款。我們已經抵消了我們從客戶那裡獲得的一些貸款。然後將兩者相結合將是一個證券投資組合,我們所做的一切都是為了通過複製來管理資產和負債,並確保我們達到適當的期限來管理風險。因此,理論上,我會說投資組合的規模並沒有特別的限制。但對我們來說,重要的是我們不會承擔未暴露的久期風險。所以我們想要的是匹配資金,它反映了我們擁有的存款質量和我們擁有的貸款賬簿的期限。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Alastair Ryan from Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Alastair Ryan。

  • Alastair William Ryan - Head of European Banks Equity Research

    Alastair William Ryan - Head of European Banks Equity Research

  • And so fee-generating assets come into Q3 down 12% on where they came into Q2, invested assets down 11%. Is there anything that would offset that as a headwind to your fees, which obviously double your net interest income in Wealth Management?

    因此,第三季度產生費用的資產比第二季度下降了 12%,投資資產下降了 11%。有什麼可以抵消這對您的費用造成的不利影響,這顯然會使您在財富管理中的淨利息收入翻倍?

  • And second, please. The cost income in Q2 was well over 70, 73, excluding the various one-offs in revenues and costs. Were you putting some money aside for future quarters or to get back into the 73, you need the revenues to snap back up or a step up in the cost program?

    第二,請。第二季度的成本收入遠遠超過 70、73,不包括各種一次性的收入和成本。您是在為未來的幾個季度留出一些錢還是為了回到 73,您需要收入來快速恢復或在成本計劃中增加?

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • So again, when we did the underlying for the first half, we were actually quite close to the reported because they are items that go in both directions. And so we want to make sure that we review the math that you're doing with you on that one, too. And because we are not seeing the issues that you're describing.

    同樣,當我們在上半年做底層證券時,我們實際上非常接近報告的內容,因為它們是雙向的。因此,我們希望確保我們也審查您與您一起做的數學計算。因為我們沒有看到你描述的問題。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Yes. And Ryan, so basically, we report as we report and the cost income is on reported numbers, right? So it's good that you also look at the underlying because that is also important for us. I mean we make that analysis as well as to what is -- so how can we further improve our cost tankerage underlying, but you know that the targets are on a reported basis.

    是的。 Ryan,所以基本上,我們在報告時報告,成本收入是在報告的數字上,對吧?因此,您也可以查看底層證券,因為這對我們也很重要。我的意思是我們進行分析以及分析是什麼 - 那麼我們如何進一步改善我們的潛在油輪成本,但你知道目標是在報告的基礎上進行的。

  • Alastair William Ryan - Head of European Banks Equity Research

    Alastair William Ryan - Head of European Banks Equity Research

  • Okay. And on invested assets?

    好的。投資資產呢?

  • Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

    Sarah M. Youngwood - Group CFO & Member of Executive Board

  • Well, they reflect on the market that has gone down and then we, of course, have done better than the market because we have added other cumulative flows into that.

    好吧,他們反映了下跌的市場,然後我們當然比市場做得更好,因為我們在其中添加了其他累積流量。

  • Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

    Ralph A. J. G. Hamers - Group CEO & President of the Group Executive Board

  • Okay. There's no more questions, then I'll close this call. Thank you for calling in this morning.

    好的。沒有更多的問題,那麼我會結束這個電話。謝謝你今天早上來電。

  • I think to sum it all up. As you can see from our numbers, this was for our clients, a challenging quarter where our private clients were sidelining their investments waiting for guidance and also for advice, whereas our institutional clients have really been very active, and that's what you see through the numbers. We have progressed in our strategy if it comes to putting the company closer together, launching digital initiatives working on technology in order to further improve efficiencies as well, keeping costs under control. And that leading to, in our view, a very strong or a good underlying performance, let me put it that way, in the Swiss business, in the markets business and in the wealth business.

    我想總結一下。正如您從我們的數據中看到的那樣,這對我們的客戶來說是一個充滿挑戰的季度,我們的私人客戶在等待指導和建議的情況下將他們的投資擱置一邊,而我們的機構客戶確實非常活躍,這就是您所看到的數字。如果要讓公司更緊密地聯繫在一起,我們的戰略已經取得了進展,推出了針對技術的數字計劃,以進一步提高效率,控製成本。在我們看來,這導致了非常強勁或良好的潛在業績,讓我這樣說,在瑞士業務、市場業務和財富業務中。

  • And so with that, thank you again for calling in, and I wish you a great day. Thank you.

    因此,再次感謝您的來電,祝您有美好的一天。謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast and Q&A session for analysts and investors is over. You may now disconnect your lines. We will now take a short break and continue with the media Q&A session at 10:45.

    女士們,先生們,分析師和投資者的網絡直播和問答環節已經結束。您現在可以斷開線路。我們現在稍作休息,繼續 10:45 的媒體問答環節。