聯合航空 (UAL) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to United Airlines Holdings' Earnings Conference Call for the First Quarter 2024. My name is Krista, and I will be your conference facilitator today. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded and is copyrighted.

早安，歡迎參加聯合航空控股公司 2024 年第一季收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）此通話正在錄音並受版權保護。

Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed or rebroadcast without the company's permission.

請注意，未經本公司許可，不得對通話的任何部分進行錄音、轉錄或轉播。

Your participation implies your consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line.

您的參與即表示您同意我們對本次通話進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，只需掛斷電話即可。

I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Kristina Edwards, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我將把簡報交給今天電話會議的主持人、投資者關係董事總經理 Kristina Edwards。請繼續。

Thank you, Krista. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our website at ir.united.com.

謝謝你，克里斯塔。大家早安，歡迎參加美聯航 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。昨天，我們發布了收益報告，可在我們的網站 ir.united.com 上取得。

Information in yesterday's release and the remarks made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, which represent the company's current expectations or beliefs concerning future events and financial performance.

昨天發布的信息以及本次電話會議中的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述代表了公司當前對未來事件和財務業績的預期或信念。

All forward-looking statements are based upon information currently available to the company. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release, Form 10-K and 10-Q and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於公司目前掌握的資訊。許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異。請參閱我們的收益報告、表格 10-K 和 10-Q 以及聯合航空控股公司和聯合航空向 SEC 提交的其他報告，以更全面地描述這些因素。

Unless otherwise noted, we will be discussing our financial metrics on a non-GAAP basis on this call. Please refer to the related definitions and reconciliations in our press release. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the tables at the end of our release.

除非另有說明，我們將在本次電話會議上討論非公認會計原則的財務指標。請參閱我們新聞稿中的相關定義和調節。有關這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準的調節，請參閱我們發布末尾的表格。

Joining us on the call today to discuss our results and outlook are Chief Executive Officer, Scott Kirby; President, Brett Hart; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Leskinen. In addition, we have other members of the executive team on the line available to assist with Q&A. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

執行長 Scott Kirby 今天參加了我們的電話會議，討論了我們的業績和前景。主席布雷特·哈特；執行副總裁兼首席商務官安德魯‧諾切拉；執行副總裁兼財務長 Mike Leskinen。此外，我們還有其他管理團隊成員在線上協助問答。現在我想把電話轉給史考特。

Thanks, Kristina, and welcome, everyone, for the call today. Before we dive into our Q1 earnings performance, I want to start by talking about the issue that always comes first at United, safety. Safety is the fundamental pillar of our core4. Safe, caring, dependable and efficient. And in that order. Safety is at the core of everything we do at our airlines to make United a success. As you've read, the FAA recently began evaluating several elements of our operations to ensure we're doing all we can to drive safety compliance.

謝謝克里斯蒂娜，歡迎大家今天打電話來。在我們深入探討第一季的獲利表現之前，我想先談談曼聯始終優先考慮的問題：安全。安全是我們 core4 的基本支柱。安全、貼心、可靠、高效。並且按照這個順序。安全是我們航空公司為確保美聯航成功所做的一切工作的核心。正如您所讀到的，美國聯邦航空局最近開始評估我們營運的幾個要素，以確保我們盡一切努力推動安全合規性。

We welcome the FAA's engagement, and we are embracing this review as an opportunity to take our safety culture standards to an even higher level. As we undergo this review, I have confidence that, first, we have a strong foundation and a culture of safety here at United, including training, systems, processes and reporting culture. And that's backed up by our strong track record and the success of our safety protocols. Second, through the FAA review, I'm confident that we'll uncover opportunities to make our airline even safer.

我們歡迎美國聯邦航空局的參與，並將此次審查視為將我們的安全文化標準提升到更高水準的機會。在我們進行這次審查時，我相信，首先，我們在美聯航擁有堅實的基礎和安全文化，包括培訓、系統、流程和報告文化。我們良好的業績記錄和成功的安全協議為這一點提供了支持。其次，透過美國聯邦航空局的審查，我相信我們將發現讓我們的航空公司更加安全的機會。

At United, we have the best team of airline professionals in the world, and we're committed to embracing this opportunity to make the best airline in the world even better for our customers and employees.

在美聯航，我們擁有世界上最好的航空公司專業團隊，我們致力於抓住這個機會，讓世界上最好的航空公司為我們的客戶和員工提供更好的服務。

Now to our Q1 earnings. We delivered a strong first quarter, and it's clear the United Next plan continues to put our airline on a bright path. Notably, we saw a meaningful year-over-year margin improvement in the first quarter. And if the Boeing MAX 9 hadn't been grounded, we would have been profitable for the quarter.

現在來看看我們第一季的收益。我們第一季的業績表現強勁，很明顯，United Next 計劃將繼續讓我們的航空公司走上光明的道路。值得注意的是，我們在第一季看到利潤率同比顯著改善。如果波音 MAX 9 沒有停飛，我們本季就會獲利。

Our United Next plan continued to demonstrate resilience and challenging industry conditions as we faced further significant aircraft delivery delays. These delays are driving temporarily higher costs this year but we've been able to find ways to offset most of those headwinds. On demand, we see continued positive momentum in bookings across all customer segments from the most price-sensitive customers to domestic road warriors and up to the premium global customer.

隨著我們面臨進一步嚴重的飛機交付延誤，我們的 United Next 計劃繼續展現出韌性和充滿挑戰的行業條件。這些延誤導致今年的成本暫時上升，但我們已經找到了方法來抵消大部分不利因素。根據需求，我們看到所有客戶群的預訂量持續呈現正面勢頭，從對價格最敏感的客戶到國內公路戰士，再到優質的全球客戶。

Our cost management and clear demand for the United product continue to support our confidence in the United Next strategy and full year 2024 EPS of $9 to $11.

我們的成本管理和對美聯航產品的明確需求繼續支持我們對 United Next 策略和 2024 年全年每股收益 9 至 11 美元的信心。

In conclusion, I'm proud of the United team for delivering top-tier operational and financial results. Thank you for all the work you do that makes us the airline that customers choose to fly. And with that, I'll hand it over to Brett.

總之，我為美聯航團隊提供頂級營運和財務表現感到自豪。感謝您所做的一切工作，使我們成為客戶選擇搭乘的航空公司。這樣，我就把它交給布雷特了。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. I'd like to thank our employees for their hard work this quarter as we navigated through the grounding of the Boeing MAX 9 fleet. We recovered well and got our customers to their destinations with limited disruption.

謝謝你，斯科特，早安。我要感謝我們的員工本季在波音 MAX 9 機隊停飛期間所做的辛勤工作。我們恢復得很好，並在有限的干擾下將客戶送達目的地。

As Scott mentioned, Together with the FAA, we have begun an in-depth review of our processes and procedures. These reviews are being taken very seriously, and we will see this as an opportunity to further strengthen our commitment to safety.

正如史考特所提到的，我們已經與美國聯邦航空局一起開始對我們的流程和程序進行深入審查。我們正在非常認真地對待這些審查，我們將將此視為進一步加強我們對安全的承諾的機會。

As we work through this safety review with the FAA, certain certifications will be delayed. As a result of this, we expect a small number of aircraft scheduled for delivery in the second quarter to be delayed. We expect this to have a minimal impact to our 2024 capacity plans. I am confident that we will be able to successfully look back on this review process, resulting in an even better airline for our customers, employees and shareholders.

當我們與美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 一起進行安全審查時，某些認證將被推遲。因此，我們預計第二季交付的少量飛機將被推遲。我們預計這對我們 2024 年產能計畫的影響最小。我相信，我們將能夠成功地回顧這個審查過程，為我們的客戶、員工和股東打造更好的航空公司。

On the employee front, we reached a tentative agreement with the IBT for a 4-year extension to their existing contract. We expect to hear if it is ratified by their membership in the next few days.

在員工方面，我們與 IBT 達成了一項臨時協議，將其現有合約延長 4 年。我們希望在接下來的幾天內聽到其成員是否批准該協議。

Taking a look at our operation. In the first quarter, we delivered top-tier service for our customers. We had our second best on-time departure performance in the first quarter in our history excluding pandemic years.

看看我們的操作。第一季度，我們為客戶提供了一流的服務。我們在第一季的準時出發表現是史上第二好的（不包括疫情年份）。

This resulted in being second in the industry and on-time departures for the seventh month in a row.

這使得我們的航班準點率連續第七個月位居業界第二。

Additionally, our widebody operation had the company's best on-time performance since the pandemic. We accomplished all of this while having the highest seat factor for any first quarter in our history. This is a great testament to the hard work of our team. In addition to strong operational performance, we also continue to make customer enhancements that have driven up our Net Promoter Scores. Some of these include continuing to retrofit our existing mainline fleet with signature interiors that feature larger overhead bins, inflight entertainment in every seat back and Bluetooth connectivity.

此外，我們的寬體機營運取得了自疫情爆發以來該公司最好的準點率表現。我們實現了這一切，同時擁有史上第一季最高的座位率。這是我們團隊辛勤工作的最佳證明。除了強勁的營運績效之外，我們還持續加強客戶服務，從而提高了我們的淨推薦值。其中包括繼續改造我們現有的幹線機隊，採用標誌性的內飾，包括更大的頭頂行李箱、每個座椅靠背的機上娛樂系統和藍牙連接。

Signature interior aircraft were 9 points higher in on-time NPS compared to the rest of the narrow-body fleet, and we are on track for 50% of our North America fleet that have Signature interiors by the end of the year. We were the first U.S. airline to offer MileagePlus pooling, allowing customers to share and use miles with their friends and families. We've also partnered with the TSA to launch TSA Precheck Touchless ID at O’Hare and LAX, which uses biometrics to enable customers to pass through the TSA line faster and without having to pull out their ID.

與其他窄體機隊相比，標誌性內裝飛機的準點 NPS 高出 9 個百分點，預計到今年年底，我們的北美機隊將有 50% 配備標誌性內裝。我們是第一家提供前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 共享計劃的美國航空公司，允許客戶與朋友和家人分享和使用里程。我們還與 TSA 合作，在奧黑爾機場和洛杉磯國際機場推出了 TSA Precheck 非接觸式 ID，它使用生物識別技術，使客戶能夠更快地通過 TSA 排隊，而無需拿出 ID。

Running a reliable air operation and enhancing the customer experience continues to differentiate United. These encouraging operational results and improved Net Promoter Scores combined with our focus on safety by creating strong momentum for the rest of 2024. I will now turn it over to Andrew to talk about the revenue environment.

營運可靠的航空營運並提升客戶體驗繼續讓美聯航脫穎而出。這些令人鼓舞的營運績效和淨推薦值的提高，再加上我們對安全的關注，為 2024 年剩餘時間創造了強勁動力。

Thanks, Brett. United's revenue and financial performance will be top tier in Q1. And as Scott and Brett mentioned, we also had strong operational results. Without the ground into the MAX 9, we clearly would have produced a profit in the quarter.

謝謝，布雷特。曼聯第一季的營收和財務表現將名列前茅。正如斯科特和布雷特所提到的，我們也取得了強勁的營運表現。如果沒有 MAX 9 的落地，我們顯然會在本季實現盈利。

Looking back at 2023, we did have a great year, particularly in Q2 and Q3. However, United's relative financial performance in Q1 of 2023 did not meet our expectations. Improve in United's absolute and relative Q1 margin is something we're very focused on to achieve our long-term financial targets. Q1 has always been our most challenged quarter financially. Post-pandemic Q1 seasonality worsened due to decreases in corporate business.

回顧 2023 年，我們確實度過了美好的一年，尤其是第二季和第三季。然而，曼聯 2023 年第一季的相對財務表現並未達到我們的預期。為了實現我們的長期財務目標，我們非常注重提高美聯航第一季的絕對和相對利潤率。第一季一直是我們財務上面臨最大挑戰的季度。疫情後第一季季節性因企業業務減少而惡化。

For the first quarter of 2024, we took the lessons from 2023 and carefully refined our commercial plan with encouraging results. A few of our domestic capacity changes in Q1 included Florida capacity increased 20% with financial results well above our system average. Las Vegas capacity increased 7%, again, with strong financial results. Margins on off-peak, early AM and late PM flights improved by 12 points year-over-year and margins on off-peak days improved by 11 points driven by United changes and industry changes.

2024年第一季度，我們吸取2023年的教訓，精心完善商業計劃，並取得了令人鼓舞的成果。第一季我們國內產能的一些變化包括佛羅裡達州的產能增加了 20%，財務表現遠高於我們的系統平均值。拉斯維加斯產能再次成長 7%，財務表現強勁。在美聯航變革和產業變化的推動下，非高峰、早晨和晚間航班的利潤率年增了 12 個百分點，非高峰日的利潤率提高了 11 個百分點。

In making these changes to how we deploy capacity in Q1, we sacrificed about 1 point of narrow-body utilization year-over-year. But in exchange, we offered a schedule that was more attractive to passengers with better departure and arrival times and more profitable for United, lower utilization also enhanced our reliability. We believe our Q1 2024 results set United up for producing profitable first quarters in the upcoming years and show our agility on adjusting our plan to meet new challenges.

在對第一季運力部署方式進行這些改變時，我們的窄體飛機利用率年比犧牲了約 1 個百分點。但作為交換，我們提供了一個對乘客更有吸引力的時間表，出發和到達時間更短，對美聯航來說更有利可圖，較低的利用率也提高了我們的可靠性。我們相信，我們 2024 年第一季的業績將使美聯航在未來幾年的第一季實現盈利，並顯示出我們在調整計劃以應對新挑戰方面的靈活性。

Turning to our overall revenue performance in the first quarter. Revenue increased 9.7% on 9.1% more capacity consolidated TRASM was up 0.6% and PRASM was up 1%. Domestic PRASM increased 6.1%, which we expect to be industry-leading year-over-year while international PRASM was down 4.2%. Domestic revenue results were also well above our expectations on strong demand and did help offset lower RASM year-over-year from global flying in Latin America.

轉向我們第一季的整體營收表現。營收成長 9.7%，綜合產能增加 9.1%，TRASM 成長 0.6%，PRASM 成長 1%。國內 PRASM 成長 6.1%，我們預期年比產業領先，而國際 PRASM 下降 4.2%。由於需求強勁，國內收入結果也遠高於我們的預期，並確實幫助抵消了拉丁美洲全球航班同比下降的 RASM。

United's domestic RASM gains since 2019 lead the industry even with United having the largest increase in aircraft gauge than U.S. airline. United's domestic network has been starved of gauged historically. I think our domestic RASM results in Q1 yet again showed that not all industry capacity is created equally, considering the marginal RASM, performance of growth ASMs at other airlines versus United. Cargo revenue decreased 1.8% year-over-year, and we're hopeful that this is the last year-over-year decline we'll see in the near term.

自 2019 年以來，美聯航的國內 RASM 成長在業界處於領先地位，儘管美聯航的飛機規格增幅超過美國航空。曼聯的國內網路在歷史上一直缺乏評估。我認為我們第一季的國內 RASM 結果再次表明，考慮到邊際 RASM、其他航空公司與美聯航的成長 ASM 的表現，並非所有行業產能都是平等創造的。貨運收入年減 1.8%，我們希望這是近期內最後一次年減。

MileagePlus had another strong quarter with revenue up 15%. United's premier frequent flyer new members are more engaged than ever by flying and using one of our co-brand credit cards. Managed corporate travel in Q1 was up 14% year-over-year. Yields for managed travel will be faster than non-managed travel due to stronger close-in pricing and refined discounting guidelines. The strength of the business traffic rebound is a nice development for an airline like United.

前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 季度業績再次強勁，營收成長 15%。美聯航首屈一指的飛行常客新會員比以往任何時候都更加積極參與飛行並使用我們的聯合品牌信用卡之一。第一季的管理型商務旅行年增 14%。由於更接近的定價和完善的折扣指南，管理旅行的收益將比非管理旅行更快。對於像美聯航這樣的航空公司來說，商務客流量的強勁反彈是一個很好的發展。

Latin American PRASM was down 12.7%. Weakness was felt in near Latin America markets for the most part versus South America. We are pleased with our capacity growth across Pacific where capacity was up 66% and PRASM was down 12.9%. However, we do plan to make capacity adjustments to a small number of underperforming routes later this year. Q1 performance for United's Atlantic line was up with strong PRASM 11% up. We saw a material rebound in London where Polaris revenues were up 8% on 11% less capacity.

拉丁美洲 PRASM 下跌 12.7%。與南美洲相比，拉丁美洲附近的市場大部分都表現疲軟。我們對整個太平洋地區的運力成長感到滿意，其中運力成長了 66%，而 PRASM 則下降了 12.9%。不過，我們確實計劃在今年稍後對少數表現不佳的航線進行運力調整。美聯航大西洋航線第一季的業績上升，PRASM 強勁成長 11%。我們在倫敦看到了實質反彈，Polaris 的收入成長了 8%，但運力減少了 11%。

We saw weakness to Germany offset by strength in Southern Europe and Africa where we increased capacity. United's efforts to build our brand and premium product choices while reducing customer friction is having a noticeable positive impact on our results as we gain share across the network for leisure and business travelers. For our road warrior or frequent flyer business customers, United elimination of change fees, the functionality or app to manage their entire travel experience, improvements to MileagePlus and the steady increase in United Club facilities has resulted in improving share.

我們看到德國的疲軟被我們增加的產能的南歐和非洲的強勁所抵消。美聯航努力打造我們的品牌和優質產品選擇，同時減少客戶摩擦，這對我們的業績產生了顯著的積極影響，因為我們在休閒和商務旅客的網絡中獲得了份額。對於我們的出差旅客或飛行常客商務客戶來說，美聯航取消了變更費用、管理其整個旅行體驗的功能或應用程序、前程萬裡(MileagePlus) 的改進以及美聯航俱樂部(United Club) 設施的穩步增加導致了份額的提高。

However, we cannot understate the importance of the elimination of change fees, which is a game changer for how people feel about United. United's focus on premium products has matched well with increased consumer demand for our premium seat choices. We believe this focus has diversified and made our revenues less cyclical in the long run. Premium passenger revenue mix improved 1.9 points versus Q1 2023 and 3 points versus Q1 2019.

然而，我們不能低估取消變更費的重要性，改變了人們對曼聯的看法。美聯航對優質產品的關注與消費者對我們優質座位選擇的需求不斷增長相匹配。我們相信，這種關注點已經多元化，從長遠來看，我們的收入周期性較小。高級乘客收入組合較 2023 年第一季提高了 1.9 個百分點，較 2019 年第一季提高了 3 個百分點。

In other words, we're seeing near-term acceleration. Premium revenues were up 14% year-over-year on 10% more capacity, and we estimate that United's premium revenue streams lead the industry. While our largest focus is on growing premium revenues, we also believe our rollout of Basic Economy is a critical competitive tool and important to attracting customers of all types in our core geography. Basic Economy sales trends in Q1 were up 35% year-over-year.

換句話說，我們看到了近期的加速。運能增加 10%，保費收入年增 14%，我們估計美聯航的保費收入流在業界處於領先地位。雖然我們最關注的是增加保費收入，但我們也相信我們推出的基礎經濟艙是一個關鍵的競爭工具，對於吸引我們核心地區的所有類型的客戶非常重要。第一季基礎經濟艙銷售趨勢年增 35%。

Basic has clearly changed our competitive stance versus the ULCCs. Larger narrow-body jets are also increasing United's gauge faster with more premium fees than any other U.S. airline. We are absorbing this gauge increase well, which can be easily measured in our continued domestic RASM growth relative to others. We continue to plan for further gauge growth between 2025 and 2027 with our expanded MAX 9 and A321 fleet.

Basic 明顯改變了我們相對於 ULCC 的競爭立場。與其他美國航空公司相比，更大的窄體噴射機也以更高的保費提高了美聯航的飛行距離。我們很好地吸收了這項指標的成長，這可以透過我們相對於其他國家的國內 RASM 持續成長來輕鬆衡量。我們繼續計劃透過擴大 MAX 9 和 A321 機隊，在 2025 年至 2027 年間進一步實現機重成長。

Other product innovations are planned with the goal of increasing choice for customers, expanding premium revenue streams and segmenting demand. United's gauge growth will also create further cost convergence. More importantly, gauge growth provides consumers a wide range of premium seat choices that they want and that we have proven we can monetize.

其他產品創新的目標是增加客戶的選擇、擴大優質收入來源和細分需求。美聯航的客艙成長也將進一步推動成本趨同。更重要的是，軌距的成長為消費者提供了他們想要的廣泛的優質座位選擇，並且我們已經證明我們可以從中獲利。

For Q2, we continue to see strong domestic and Atlantic demand with positive RASM results tempered by the Pacific where we expect a negative result year-over-year. We also expect Latin America will have a materially negative PRASM result year-over-year in the quarter. As we think about the second half of 2024, we do like the macro setup, particularly for domestic capacity where we think we can continue RASM growth above industry average.

對於第二季度，我們繼續看到強勁的國內和大西洋需求，RASM 結果為正，但太平洋地區的需求與去年同期相比為負。我們也預計拉丁美洲本季的 PRASM 結果將同比大幅下降。當我們考慮 2024 年下半年時，我們確實喜歡宏觀環境，特別是對於國內產能，我們認為我們可以繼續保持高於行業平均的 RASM 成長。

We are focused on building connectivity in our core non-coastal hubs in 2024 with both new mainline jets and with enhanced RJ capabilities. With that, I wanted to congratulate the entire United team on a job well done and turn over the call to Mike to discuss our financial results and updated fleet plan. Mike?

我們的重點是到 2024 年透過新的幹線噴射機和增強的 RJ 功能在我們的核心非沿海樞紐建立連接。在此，我想祝賀整個曼聯團隊的出色工作，並將電話轉給麥克，討論我們的財務表現和更新的機隊計劃。麥克風？

Thanks, Andrew, and thank you to the United team for the tremendous effort as we work through the grounding of the Boeing MAX 9 fleet and enter the peak spring break travel season. In the first quarter, we produced a pretax loss of $79 million, a $187 million improvement over the first quarter of last year. Our loss per share of $0.15 was better than our guidance, and well ahead of consensus expectations, driven by both strong revenue results and disciplined expense management.

謝謝安德魯，也感謝美聯航團隊在波音 MAX 9 機隊停飛和進入春假旅行高峰期所做的巨大努力。第一季度，我們的稅前虧損為 7,900 萬美元，比去年第一季減少了 1.87 億美元。在強勁的收入業績和嚴格的費用管理的推動下，我們的每股虧損為 0.15 美元，好於我們的指導，並且遠遠超出共識預期。

The grounding of the Boeing MAX 9 fleet negatively impacted our earnings by more than $200 million and without it, we would have had a profitable quarter. We also generated $1.5 billion in free cash flow and our adjusted net debt to EBITDAR of 2.7x is back to pre-pandemic levels. These are strong results in what is our seasonally weakest quarter, and they provide another proof point that our United Next plan is working.

波音 MAX 9 機隊的停飛對我們的收入產生了超過 2 億美元的負面影響，如果沒有它，我們本可以實現一個盈利的季度。我們還產生了 15 億美元的自由現金流，調整後的 EBITDAR 淨債務為 2.7 倍，回到了大流行前的水平。這些是我們季節性最弱季度的強勁業績，它們提供了另一個證據，證明我們的 United Next 計劃正在發揮作用。

Before I turn to the outlook, I'd like to address the changes we made with Boeing and Airbus, to optimize the delivery skyline.

在展望前景之前，我想談談我們為優化交付天際線而與波音和空中巴士所做的改變。

Boeing's repeated delivery delays had created an impractical bow wave of aircraft deliveries that both United to Boeing had to address and we have. In 2024, we now expect to take delivery of 61 narrow-body aircraft and 5 wide-body aircraft. This compares to our contractual deliveries of 183 narrow-body aircraft at year-end and the 101 aircraft we were planning for at the start of the year.

波音公司一再延遲交付造成了飛機交付不切實際的浪潮，美聯航和波音公司都必須解決這個問題，我們也解決了。到 2024 年，我們預計將接收 61 架窄體飛機和 5 架寬體飛機。相較之下，我們年底的合約交付量為 183 架窄體飛機，年初計畫交付量為 101 架。

Due to these fleet changes, we now expect full year 2024 total capital expenditures to be approximately $6.5 billion down from $9 billion at the start of the year.

由於機隊的這些變化，我們現在預計 2024 年全年總資本支出將從年初的 90 億美元減少到約 65 億美元。

We've also made changes to level out our fleet plan for 2025 through 2027. This modified fleet plan allows us to execute on our long-term goals while also smoothing out the pace of deliveries and our annual CapEx spend. We've converted a near-term portion of our MAX 10 deliveries scheduled through 2027 into MAX 9s. Additionally, we have signed letters of intent to lease 35 new Airbus A321neos with CFM engines scheduled for delivery in 2026 and 2027.

我們還對 2025 年至 2027 年的機隊計劃進行了調整。我們已將計劃於 2027 年交付的 MAX 10 的近期部分轉換為 MAX 9。此外，我們還簽署了租賃 35 架配備 CFM 引擎的全新空中巴士 A321neo 的意向書，計劃於 2026 年和 2027 年交付。

With these changes, we now anticipate taking delivery of approximately 100 narrow-body aircraft on average each year during this 3-year period. This delivery schedule provides fleet renewal, steady growth and addresses the bow wave of aircraft delivery delays that had been building. These changes bring our total adjusted capital expenditures in 2025 through 2027 to the $7 billion to $9 billion range in each of those years.

透過這些變化，我們現在預計在這 3 年期間平均每年接收約 100 架窄體飛機。這項交付計畫可實現機隊更新、穩定成長，並解決一直以來出現的飛機交付延誤的問題。這些變化使我們 2025 年至 2027 年每年的調整後資本支出總額達到 70 億至 90 億美元。

Balancing our United Next growth plan and managing the business towards positive free cash flow remain top priorities. And with the rebalanced skyline, we are targeting positive and growing free cash flow over the next 3 years. While we will provide an updated long-term earnings target later this year, we are confident we are on a path to higher earnings, better margins and materially stronger free cash conversion.

平衡我們的 United Next 成長計畫和管理業務以實現正向自由現金流仍然是首要任務。隨著天際線的重新平衡，我們的目標是在未來三年內實現積極且不斷增長的自由現金流。雖然我們將在今年稍後提供更新的長期盈利目標，但我們相信我們正在走上更高的盈利、更好的利潤率和實質上更強的自由現金轉換的道路。

Now turning to costs. Unit costs trended as expected during the quarter and were up 4.7% year-over-year on 9.1% capacity growth. As I mentioned, it was challenging to reoptimize our expenses with the uncertainty created by the MAX grounding and continued delays to our aircraft deliveries. While our underlying costs are consistent with our forecast at the beginning of the year, it's important to understand that the continued reduction in capacity from delivery delays will continue to temporarily pressure our CASM-ex for all of 2024. As we enter the year, we built a business plan for a larger airline. And deliveries have fallen more than 40 aircraft short of our expectations.

現在轉向成本。本季單位成本趨勢符合預期，年增 4.7%，運能成長 9.1%。正如我所提到的，由於 MAX 停飛和飛機交付持續延誤帶來的不確定性，重新優化我們的開支具有挑戰性。雖然我們的基本成本與我們年初的預測一致，但重要的是要了解，交付延遲導致的運力持續減少將在2024 年全年繼續暫時給我們的CASM-ex 帶來壓力。年，我們為一家較大的航空公司製定了商業計劃。飛機交付量比我們的預期少了 40 多架。

We continue to incur most of the expenses as we hired for that capacity despite flying fewer ASMs and it is driving almost a point of CASM-ex pressure. We are working diligently to reduce these costs as much as possible, and our higher completion factor has helped offset some of it. For the second quarter, we expect CASM-ex to be similar on a year-over-year basis versus the first quarter. Given our expectation for costs and our current outlook for revenue and fuel, we expect second quarter earnings per share to be between $3.75 and $4.25.

儘管飛行的 ASM 數量減少，但我們仍繼續承擔大部分費用，因為我們為該容量而僱用了飛機，這幾乎造成了 CASM-ex 壓力。我們正在努力盡可能地降低這些成本，而我們更高的完成率有助於抵消其中的部分成本。對於第二季度，我們預期 CASM-ex 的年比情況與第一季相似。考慮到我們對成本的預期以及目前對收入和燃料的展望，我們預計第二季每股收益將在 3.75 美元至 4.25 美元之間。

We have great momentum. Our United Next plan is working and the future for United and our industry has never looked brighter. Our margins are already near the top of the industry, and we still have significant and unique network and gauge opportunities in front of us. United has never been in a stronger competitive position. We have developed a wide variety of products that are compelling to a wide variety of customers. And as a result, they are increasingly choosing to fly United.

我們勢頭強勁。我們的 United Next 計劃正在發揮作用，美聯航和我們行業的未來從未如此光明。我們的利潤率已經接近行業頂部，我們仍然擁有重要且獨特的網絡並把握機會。曼聯從未處於如此強大的競爭地位。我們開發了各種各樣的產品，吸引了各種各樣的客戶。因此，他們越來越多地選擇搭乘聯合航空航班。

I remain excited about our future and believe we're firmly on track to deliver $9 to $11 in earnings per share this year. With that, I'll pass it over to Kristina to start the Q&A.

我對我們的未來仍然感到興奮，並相信今年我們將堅定地實現每股 9 至 11 美元的盈利。這樣，我將把它交給克里斯蒂娜來開始問答。

Thanks, Mike. We will now take questions from the analyst community. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝，麥克。我們現在將回答分析師群體的問題。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·迪多拉（Andrew Didora）。

I guess first one is for Mike or Scott. I guess, with your new CapEx forecast, that I'm sure are not yet set in stone given there are a lot of moving parts here. It certainly implies much more consistent free cash flow generation over the next few years. How are you thinking about maybe deploying that capital? Where do you see the best fit for that going forward?

我想第一個是給麥克或史考特的。我想，根據您的新資本支出預測，我確信這還不是一成不變的，因為這裡有很多變化的部分。這無疑意味著未來幾年自由現金流的產生將更加穩定。您如何考慮如何部署這筆資金？您認為最適合未來發展的地方在哪裡？

Andrew nice to hear from you. I'll take that question. Andrew, as I said in my prepared remarks, our net leverage is currently 2.7x -- our net leverage is 2.7x, which puts us back in the range of pre-pandemic levels. In fact, in 2019, we were at 2.5x. In 2018, we're at 3x as we look at the path forward, I expect to see continued deleveraging. We also have -- we also still have some high coupon debt outstanding.

安德魯很高興收到你的來信。我來回答這個問題。安德魯，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們的淨槓桿率目前為 2.7 倍——我們的淨槓桿率為 2.7 倍，這使我們回到了大流行前的水平範圍。事實上，2019 年，我們的成長率為 2.5 倍。 2018 年，當我們展望未來的道路時，我們的成長率是 3 倍，我預期會繼續去槓桿化。我們還有一些未償還的高票息債務。

A piece of our MileagePlus debt, $1.8 billion becomes prepayable in July. That debt is still yielding over 10%. So that will be my near-term priority is to take care of that debt. After that, with the -- on our way to investment-grade credit metrics, we're going to have a tremendous amount of flexibility, and we'll revisit other uses of free cash at that time. But you're going to have to stay tuned.

我們的前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 債務中有 18 億美元需要在 7 月提前償還。該債務的收益率仍超過 10%。因此，我近期的首要任務是處理這筆債務。之後，在我們實現投資等級信用指標的過程中，我們將擁有巨大的靈活性，屆時我們將重新審視自由現金的其他用途。但你必須保持關注。

Great. Just a follow-up question in for Andrew. Just on the corporate commentary and the strong trans-Atlantic, I know you cited Heathrow in your prepared remarks. Should we read into that, that corporate was a big driver of the results in 1Q on trans-Atlantic or do you have any other call-outs that you would have just to get a sense for what's driving the outperformance there?

偉大的。這是安德魯的後續問題。就企業評論和強大的跨大西洋航線而言，我知道您在準備好的演講中引用了希思羅機場。我們是否應該深入了解這一點，該公司是跨大西洋第一季業績的重要推動因素，或者您還有其他需要了解的因素，以了解是什麼推動了跨大西洋航線的優異表現？

As I said, I mean, corporate was strong across the board, not just some (inaudible) to be clear. We saw strength domestically and around the globe. So it's great to see. We saw, I think, 9 of our top 10 corporate booking days this year in our history, which is also really strong. So really across the board, the strongest industries are professional services, tech and industrials, but every -- I think just about every sector was up in the numbers this year.

正如我所說，我的意思是，企業在各方面都表現強勁，而不僅僅是某些（聽不清楚）。我們看到了國內和全球的力量。所以很高興看到。我認為，今年我們歷史上排名前 10 的企業預訂日中有 9 個，這也非常強勁。因此，從整體來看，最強勁的行業是專業服務、科技和工業，但我認為今年幾乎每個行業的數字都有所上升。

And I just think it reflects on where that's going. And as I said in my earlier script, Q1 corporate is really important to us. And the fact that Q1 is gaining strength for corporate is really very good for our outlook for future Q1.

我只是認為這反映了事情的發展方向。正如我在之前的劇本中所說，第一季的公司對我們來說非常重要。事實上，第一季企業實力不斷增強，這對我們對未來第一季的前景確實非常有利。

Your next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Great job. Great quarter. I wanted to ask domestic PRASM up 6% year-over-year in Q1 was double that of one of your peers that have reported so far. Curious how you would attribute that to the strong performance across the Mid-Con restoration, corporate, share gains in either premium or basic. You've touched upon that a little bit.

做得好。很棒的季度。我想問的是，國內 PRASM 第一季年增 6%，是迄今為止報道的同業的兩倍。很好奇您如何將其歸因於中期恢復、企業、溢價或基本股收益的強勁表現。你已經觸及了一點。

But then maybe as a follow-up as well, how are you thinking about that sustaining domestic unit revenues here with industry capacity?

但也許作為後續行動，您如何考慮透過產業產能維持國內單位收入？

Thanks, Sheila. I'm going to start it and then turn it to Andrew for the more tactical answer, but I'm going to take a bigger picture, I think, more strategic approach to the question. And I'd start by saying, we've been at least trying to tell you over the last several years, how we thought the industry was developing, the strategy behind United Next and essentially everything that we've said and that has worked. But it hasn't resonated. So I'm going to try a different approach today.

謝謝，希拉。我將開始它，然後將其交給安德魯，尋求更具戰術性的答案，但我認為，我將採取更大的視野，採取更具戰略性的方法來解決這個問題。我首先要說的是，在過去的幾年裡，我們至少一直試圖告訴您，我們認為該行業是如何發展的，United Next 背後的策略以及我們所說的和已經發揮作用的所有內容。但還沒有引起共鳴。所以今天我要嘗試不同的方法。

And really what is happening, and there's a couple of airlines that have what I'm describing. But what has happened is we have -- the industry has structurally changed in United and at least one other have essentially a moat around our business now that never existed before. The moat, by the way, to be clear, is a moat that is based on having a better proposition for customers. We have a better product, we have better a network, we have better a loyalty program and they choose to fly us and what makes it unique.

確實發生了什麼事，有幾家航空公司有我所描述的情況。但我們已經發生了這樣的事情——聯合航空的行業已經發生了結構性變化，至少其他行業在我們的業務周圍形成了一條以前從未存在過的護城河。順便說一句，要明確的是，護城河是基於為客戶提供更好的建議的護城河。我們有更好的產品，我們有更好的網絡，我們有更好的忠誠度計劃，他們選擇乘坐我們的航班，這是什麼讓它獨一無二。

Other airlines can have a piece of that, what makes a couple of airlines unique is we have great products, we have great service. We have a global network. It's hard to replicate. We can get you to Singapore, 2 destinations in New Zealand, 3 in Australia, Cape Town, Americas, (inaudible) Paris and hundreds more. And we also have a great loyalty program, and the ability to go to the exciting aspirational destinations causes people to want to be a part of the program.

其他航空公司可以從中分一杯羹，有些航空公司的獨特之處在於我們擁有優質的產品和優質的服務。我們擁有全球網路。很難複製。我們可以帶您前往新加坡、紐西蘭的 2 個目的地、澳洲的 3 個目的地、開普敦、美洲、（聽不清楚）巴黎以及數百個目的地。我們還有一個很棒的忠誠度計劃，能夠前往令人興奮的理想目的地會讓人們想成為該計劃的一部分。

And it's really sticky when you're doing it well and you are doing it right. But in the past, that moat was breached in 2 ways -- 2 significant ways. One, there are a large segment of customers for whom change fees, trumps everything else, particularly small business travelers, what I call domestic road warriors. And when we had change fees, and we had a large competitor that didn't they would choose that large competitor.

當你做得好並且做得正確時，它真的很黏。但在過去，這條護城河以兩種方式被破壞──兩種重要的方式。第一，對於很大一部分客戶來說，改簽費比其他一切都重要，特別是小型商務旅行者，我稱之為國內公路戰士。當我們有變更費用時，我們有一個大的競爭對手，但他們不會選擇那個大的競爭對手。

Even though all of our advantages may have existed, the change fees trumpet. It turns out that segment of the traveling public appears to be even larger than I appreciated. And we're now winning them because our natural advantages win. So we've closed off that breach. The second breach that we had was for price-sensitive customers who want a disaggregated price. And that took us time to repair that and to address that, to create a product for those customers.

儘管我們所有的優勢可能都存在，但變更費卻大肆宣揚。事實證明，旅遊大眾的比例似乎比我想像的還要大。我們現在正在贏得他們，因為我們的天然優勢獲勝。所以我們已經堵住了這個漏洞。我們遇到的第二個漏洞是針對那些想要分類價格的價格敏感客戶。我們花了很多時間來修復和解決這個問題，為這些客戶創造產品。

But there's two things that we had to do. One, we had to create a great basic economy product, which we've done. But secondly, and maybe more importantly, we had to have higher gauge. We had to be able to sell those seats profitably and in meaningful numbers in order to make that product real and make that competitive and to seal up that breach. And we have now done those 2 things. That is a huge part of what United Next was about. And those are structural changes. The moat that I described, where we have great service, but we also have a great global network, which leads to a great loyalty program is structural, and it is permanent.

但有兩件事我們必須要做。第一，我們必須創造一種出色的基礎經濟產品，而我們已經做到了。但其次，也許更重要的是，我們必須有更高的規格。我們必須能夠以有意義的數量獲利地出售這些席位，以便使該產品成為現實並使其具有競爭力並彌補這一漏洞。我們現在已經完成了這兩件事。這是 United Next 的一個重要組成部分。這些都是結構性變化。我所描述的護城河，我們提供優質的服務，但我們也擁有強大的全球網絡，這導致了出色的忠誠度計劃是結構性的，而且是永久性的。

To your point about is this temporary or is it going to go on for? This is the new normal. There's a couple of airlines that has been in this category. We're the highest margin airlines now. That is going to be the case going forward because this was a structural change, no longer theoretical. This has happened. Andrew?

您的觀點是，這是暫時的還是會持續下去？這是新常態。有幾家航空公司屬於這一類別。我們現在是利潤率最高的航空公司。未來的情況也會如此，因為這是一個結構性變化，不再是理論上的。這已經發生了。安德魯？

Well, it's hard to follow that. On the tactics, the one that I would bring up at a very high level would be, we went into the quarter not trying to maximize aircraft utilization, particularly in seasonally Q1, which is weaker. We went in trying to maximize our profitability. And I think it works and I'm really proud of the team for all the changes we made across the network because I think they're incredibly effective.

嗯，很難遵循這一點。在戰術方面，我要在一個非常高的水平上提出的是，我們進入本季度時並沒有試圖最大化飛機利用率，特別是在季節性較弱的第一季。我們努力最大化我們的獲利能力。我認為它是有效的，我為團隊在整個網路上所做的所有改變感到自豪，因為我認為它們非常有效。

Your next question comes from the line of Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

Just going back to the comment on you taking advantage of the number of opportunities in the U.S. domestic market. Can you just maybe elaborate a little bit more on that? You talked a little bit about Florida and Las Vegas, is there any learnings that you can -- that you have that you go into peak season? Or is it more of just a shoulder comment as you kind of take advantage of some of the other issues that some of the other carriers are dealing with in general?

回到關於您利用美國國內市場的大量機會的評論。能詳細說明一下嗎？您談到了佛羅裡達和拉斯維加斯，您是否可以在進入旺季時學到一些東西？或者這更像是一個肩膀評論，因為你有點利用其他一些運營商普遍處理的其他一些問題？

Well, as Scott said, the United Next vision here goes across all quarters. But in Q1, we definitely did see a lot of opportunity to continue to take advantage of things that were in our control. And within our control is the ability to continue to distribute the airline to more sunshine type markets like Florida and the Caribbean, and we did so, I think, with great success.

嗯，正如斯科特所說，「United Next」願景涉及各個方面。但在第一季度，我們確實看到了很多機會繼續利用我們控制範圍內的事情。在我們的控制範圍內，我們有能力繼續將航空公司分銷到佛羅裡達和加勒比海等更多陽光類型的市場，我認為我們這樣做取得了巨大的成功。

In Las Vegas, we put in that category as well that our capacity deployed there was incredibly effective. The other thing is we knew off-peak periods in Q1. It's not a time to max by utilization, and we took this opportunity to reschedule the airline to make sure that we were not offering unproductive capacity. And I think that worked very effectively.

在拉斯維加斯，我們也將其歸類為這一類別，因為我們在那裡部署的能力非常有效。另一件事是我們知道第一季的非高峰期。現在還不是充分利用利用率的時候，我們藉此機會重新安排了航空公司的航班時間，以確保我們不會提供非生產性的運力。我認為這非常有效。

Below all that or above all that's better how you look at it was just the core building of connectivity across our hubs. It's working exactly as we intended to do. We still have ways to go on this front. It will be 2026 or 2027, before the connectivity reaches, I think, our desired levels. And so we're pretty bullish on our ability to continue to outpace domestic RASM growth offered up by our competitors.

最重要的是，你如何看待它只是我們各樞紐之間連結的核心建構。它的工作原理完全符合我們的預期。在這方面我們還有很多路要走。我認為，到 2026 年或 2027 年，連通性才能達到我們所期望的水平。因此，我們非常看好我們有能力繼續超越競爭對手提供的國內 RASM 成長。

Maybe actually sticking with that specifically. I get the fact that you and Delta have distanced yourself from some of your competitors, and that's pretty obvious at this point, I think. And just -- but your performance relative to Delta sticks out pretty meaningfully. And I was just -- maybe you could just elaborate a little bit more on what's uniquely United because when I think about it, I think that you have a more -- a bigger opportunity on premium.

也許實際上是專門堅持這一點。我知道您和達美航空已經與一些競爭對手保持了距離，我認為這一點在這一點上非常明顯。只是——但你相對於達美航空的表現非常有意義。我只是——也許你可以詳細闡述曼聯的獨特之處，因為當我想到這一點時，我認為你在保費方面有更多——更大的機會。

You talk a lot about upgauging, but a lot of that has to do with fleet delivery. So I'm just trying to understand on how you kind of close the gap or continue to separate yourself, I should say, from the peers this year.

您談論了很多關於升級的問題，但其中許多都與車隊交付有關。所以我只是想了解今年你如何縮小差距或繼續將自己與同行區分開來。

It's a great question. We continue to drive the United Next strategy. And you're absolutely correct. The aircraft that we'll take delivery of come with a lot more premium seat options. Our premium mix this year is up 1.1 points year-over-year in terms of revenue, which is, I think, a very significant change in a very short period of time.

這是一個很好的問題。我們繼續推動 United Next 策略。你是完全正確的。我們將接收的飛機配備了更多的高級座位選擇。就收入而言，我們今年的保費組合同比增長了 1.1 個百分點，我認為這是在很短的時間內發生的非常重大的變化。

And we are going to continue to push that but we're also going to continue to push basic economy. So our premium mix is up, while our basic economy is up. And that's exactly the kind of the recipe we're looking for in our diversified revenue streams. And briefly on the global network, it's second to none. It's #1 across the Atlantic and #1 across the Pacific. And the changes we've made have just been, I think, pretty productive and efficient and accretive. And there's actually quite a bit of more of that to come.

我們將繼續推動這一目標，但我們也將繼續推動基礎經濟。因此，我們的高端產品組合有所增加，而我們的基本經濟產品也有所增加。這正是我們在多元化收入來源中所尋找的秘訣。簡而言之，在全球網路上，它是首屈一指的。它在大西洋彼岸排名第一，在太平洋彼岸排名第一。我認為，我們所做的改變非常有成效、有效率且具有增值作用。實際上還有很多這樣的事情即將發生。

So I don't know if that exactly answers your question, but the outlook, I think, is very bright. The premium revenue strategy is working incredibly effectively and we're going to continue to push it, and we think there's more room to close that gap.

所以我不知道這是否完全回答了你的問題，但我認為前景非常光明。溢價收入策略正在非常有效地發揮作用，我們將繼續推動它，我們認為還有更多空間來縮小這一差距。

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑米貝克（Jamie Baker）。

First one, probably for Andrew. So I've been following this Polaris press for champagne topic on social media. And I'll admit, in all seriousness, as an analyst, I'm intrigued by the notion of potentially unbundling the forward cabin. The evolution in economy is well chronicled at this point. But we haven't seen much change upfront.

第一個，可能是給安德魯的。所以我一直在社群媒體上關注北極星新聞的香檳主題。我嚴肅地承認，身為分析師，我對可能分拆前艙的想法很感興趣。經濟的演變在這一點上已得到很好的記錄。但我們前期並沒有看到太大的改變。

The passenger that books last pays the most, but has the same experience as the passenger that books early and pays the least, the way it used to be an economy. Is this something I should even be thinking about? Or is it a waste of my time?

最後預訂的乘客支付的費用最高，但與提前預訂且支付最少的乘客有相同的體驗，就像以前的經濟一樣。這是我該考慮的事情嗎？還是浪費我的時間？

I won't dictate how you use your time, Jamie. But...

我不會規定你如何利用你的時間，傑米。但...

I would say delete TikTok.

我會說刪除 TikTok。

Well, that wasn't the point.

好吧，那不是重點。

What I would say is we continue to believe that there's ways to further diversify our revenue streams and segment them. And we continue to believe that there is more opportunity for premium products that we don't have on board the aircraft today. And those incremental premium products, I'm not going to announce it today, but I can tell you, you have many teams of people work on how to further innovate and provide more and more choice and to monetize that choice on our behalf, obviously, in the future.

我想說的是，我們仍然相信有辦法進一步實現我們的收入來源多元化並對其進行細分。我們仍然相信，我們現在飛機上沒有的優質產品有更多的機會。對於那些增量優質產品，我今天不會宣布，但我可以告訴你，你有很多團隊致力於如何進一步創新，提供越來越多的選擇，並代表我們將這些選擇貨幣化，顯然， 將來。

So I think that headline was just a hint more to come and a lot of people working hard at United to make sure that we can differentiate ourselves not only from our U.S. competitors, but many of our competitors around the globe.

所以我認為這個標題只是一個暗示，很多人在曼聯努力工作，以確保我們不僅能夠從我們的美國競爭對手中脫穎而出，而且能夠從我們全球的許多競爭對手中脫穎而出。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then second, and whoever wants to take this, but when you initially introduced United Next and its growth plan, aircraft were being delivered on time. The discount model wasn't impaired domestically. So it was pretty easy for us to map out how your capacity share would ramp over time.

好的。這非常有幫助。其次，無論誰想接受這個，但當您最初介紹 United Next 及其增長計劃時，飛機都按時交付。折扣模式在國內並未受到損害。因此，我們可以輕鬆地規劃您的容量份額將如何隨著時間的推移而增加。

Obviously, everything has changed since then. My question is on a relative basis to the U.S. industry. So considering these constraints on capacity, does the new fleet plan keep your relative position on track with the United Next plan. It actually seems to me like you might be somewhat ahead of the plan on market share, but there are quite a few OA assumptions that I have to make there.

顯然，從那時起一切都改變了。我的問題是相對於美國工業而言的。因此，考慮到運力方面的這些限制，新機隊計劃是否能讓您與 United Next 計劃保持相對位置？實際上，在我看來，您可能在市場份額方面比計劃提前了一些，但我必須在那裡做出相當多的 OA 假設。

There's a lot of moving pieces. I'm not going to specifically answer the question. Our market share across every single 1 of our hubs is obviously improving and improving quicker than our capacity share. This year, we're domestically, I think the next 6 months we're growing less than our competitors, it's TBD on what our competitors are going to do.

有很多移動的部分。我不會具體回答這個問題。我們每一個樞紐的市佔率都在明顯提高，而且提高得比我們的運力份額更快。今年，我們在國內，我認為未來 6 個月我們的成長將低於我們的競爭對手，我們的競爭對手將做什麼尚待確定。

But we're focused on delivering the United Next plan we've created and all the value that's being generated from that. And our coastal hubs are the second and on as we've talked about a million times, but getting our core Mid-Continent hubs up to their critical connectivity levels is a big, big focus and just paying back dividends left and right, and we think it will continue to do so.

但我們專注於交付我們制定的 United Next 計劃以及由此產生的所有價值。我們的海岸樞紐是第二個，正如我們已經談論過一百萬次一樣，但是讓我們的核心中洲樞紐達到其關鍵的連接水平是一個非常非常大的重點，並且只是左右回報紅利，我們認為它會繼續這樣做。

What exactly our competitors do, I just don't know. We will continue to face struggles on the delivery schemes from Boeing and Airbus. But hopefully, as Michael talked about, we've built in the appropriate insurance plans for all of that. So you can say better on...

我不知道我們的競爭對手到底在做什麼。我們將繼續面臨波音和空中巴士交付計畫的困擾。但希望正如邁克爾所說，我們已經為所有這些制定了適當的保險計劃。所以你可以說得更好...

But suffice to say, you haven't fallen behind on a relative basis to the industry?

但我只想說，相對於產業來說，你們還沒落後嗎？

It depends on what you're measuring. If you're measuring market share in our hubs, absolutely not.

這取決於您測量的內容。如果您要衡量我們中心的市場份額，絕對不會。

But Jamie, I'd encourage you to measure profitability and our relative profitability, that's certainly what we're focused on here in United.

但是傑米，我鼓勵您衡量獲利能力和我們的相對獲利能力，這當然是我們在美聯航的重點。

Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

So speaking of TikTok, Scott, your industry commentary is usually very insightful. So I'd love your thoughts on the current headline risk to the industry from the incidents that may be out there kind of, is this just a social media kerfuffle? Is it a pandemic hangover thing? Is it lack of new aircraft thing? Is it the labor thing? What's your view on how the industry is going to assure its customers that flying is as safe as it's going to be?

斯科特，說到 TikTok，您的行業評論通常非常有洞察力。因此，我想聽聽您對當前可能發生的事件給行業帶來的頭條風險的看法，這只是一場社交媒體混亂嗎？這是大流行的宿醉嗎？是因為缺乏新飛機嗎？是勞動的事嗎？您對該行業如何向其客戶保證飛行是安全的有何看法？

Well, safety is the #1 priority at United, but I also know it is the #1 priority at all of our U.S. competitors. This is one of the places where we don't compete. And one of the actually reasons that aviation is not just the safest way to travel, it is by far, the orders of magnitude better than other forms of travel. And one of the reasons is because and safety, we share data with each other. We share all the incidents and events that happen. We learn from each other.

嗯，安全是曼聯的第一要務，但我也知道這是我們所有美國競爭對手的第一要務。這是我們不競爭的地方之一。航空不僅是最安全的旅行方式的實際原因之一，而且到目前為止，它比其他形式的旅行要好幾個數量級。原因之一是為了安全，我們互相分享資料。我們分享發生的所有事件。我們互相學習。

And that's what makes us so strong.

這就是我們如此強大的原因。

Of note at United, we have a great foundation. It's a leading foundation, and we're proud of it of our training, our systems, our process and our reporting culture. But it's also true that there was while they were unrelated, a cluster of several high-profile events that have happened in United and in the industry. And I think that is an opportunity for us to take what is already -- to step back and take what is already a very high standard of safety and find ways to make it even higher.

值得注意的是，在曼聯，我們擁有良好的基礎。這是一個領先的基金會，我們為我們的培訓、我們的系統、我們的流程和我們的報告文化感到自豪。但事實上，雖然這些事件無關，但在曼聯和業界確實發生了一系列備受矚目的事件。我認為這對我們來說是一個機會，可以退後一步，採取已經非常高的安全標準，並找到提高安全標準的方法。

That's why certainly at United, we're embracing this as an opportunity. There are already a lot of things we've done, but there are going to be more that we do, embracing this as truly an opportunity to take the already high standards to an even higher level, and I'm confident that we will do that. We can do that while running a great airline for our customers, for our employees and for our shareholders. We can do all those things at the same time, and we'll come out even better on the other side. Not just on United, but for the whole industry.

這就是為什麼在曼聯，我們將這視為一個機會。我們已經做了很多事情，但我們還會做更多的事情，將這視為一個真正的機會，將已經很高的標準提升到更高的水平，我相信我們會做的那。我們可以做到這一點，同時為我們的客戶、員工和股東經營一家偉大的航空公司。我們可以同時做所有這些事情，而且我們會在另一邊做得更好。不僅僅是曼聯，而是整個產業。

Very helpful. And maybe as a follow-up, the pooling miles is a very interesting idea. Can you just unpack that a little bit kind of what may be launched at this time? Kind of what are some of the cost or revenue implications thereof? And what do you think some of the benefits might be to United and your customers as you roll that out?

很有幫助。也許作為後續行動，共享里程是一個非常有趣的想法。您能解開此時可能推出的內容嗎？其對成本或收入的影響為何？您認為推出服務後可能會為美聯航和您的客戶帶來哪些好處？

Sure. Well, we're always trying to make MileagePlus miles more useful for our members so they can enjoy the benefits. And there are a number of members that alone couldn't get that trip to (inaudible) or wherever they're trying to go. And the pooling option allows them a better chance of doing that.

當然。我們一直在努力讓前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 里程對我們的會員更加有用，以便他們能夠享受福利。有許多會員無法獨自前往（聽不清楚）或他們想去的地方。而共享選項讓他們有更好的機會做到這一點。

I think it comes at a minimal to no cost at United, but it definitely enhances the value of the program. It's -- I think pretty unique among the largest airlines, and we look forward to seeing how it goes. So we urge you to pull your family members and see what you can do.

我認為曼聯的成本很低甚至免費，但它確實提高了該計劃的價值。我認為它在最大的航空公司中非常獨特，我們期待看到它的發展。所以我們強烈建議你拉上你的家人，看看你能做些什麼。

Your next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Just on the longer-term CapEx, certainly appreciate you have to have a plan at a point in time based on the facts available but how do you think about the path to a pickup in deliveries required to hit that 2025 and beyond? What are the dependencies in your mind? And I guess, what are the odds we enter 2025 the same way we did this year with that 100 or so more of a placeholder than a realistic target?

就長期資本支出而言，您當然知道您必須根據現有事實在某個時間點制定計劃，但您如何看待 2025 年及以後所需交付量增加的路徑？你心中的依賴是什麼？我想，我們進入 2025 年的可能性有多大，就像我們今年所做的那樣，這 100 個左右的佔位符比實際目標多？

Thanks, Duane. I appreciate the question. And I do want to kick off the question by reiterating how important generating free cash over the long term is to us here at United, and we understand to our shareholders. So that is something we are balancing. We gave you a range for CapEx of $7 billion to $9 billion. We gave you a range because it's an acknowledgment that there's some uncertainty around the OEM delivery schedules and production rates.

謝謝，杜安。我很欣賞這個問題。我確實想透過重申長期產生自由現金對我們曼聯來說有多重要來開始這個問題，我們也了解我們的股東。這就是我們正在平衡的事情。我們為您提供了 70 億至 90 億美元的資本支出範圍。我們為您提供了一個範圍，因為它承認 OEM 交貨時間表和生產力存在一些不確定性。

We also are managing this business to maximize profitability. And so make no mistake, we'll manage our deliveries as well in a way that captures the macroeconomic environment at the time, in 3 years, a lot can happen in 3 years.

我們還管理這項業務以實現利潤最大化。因此，毫無疑問，我們也會以一種捕捉當時宏觀經濟環境的方式來管理我們的交付，三年內，三年內可能會發生很多事情。

As I think about uncertainty for '25 and '26 in a stable macro economy, 787 production rates can make -- can Boeing continue to increase rates. That's going to be really critical also for the 737 line. Are they able to increase production rates.

當我考慮到 25 年和 26 年宏觀經濟穩定的不確定性時，787 的生產力可以讓波音公司能否繼續提高生產力。這對於 737 系列也非常重要。他們能夠提高生產力嗎？

So we'll watch that closely. I want to be clear that what we are giving is our expectation. Our expectation builds in some -- build in some hedge that production rates don't increase at the rate that Boeing hopes. There is -- so there's upside risk and downside risk to CapEx as a result. I think we're going to be managing that $7 billion to $9 billion range, and that's why we wanted to share that with all of you today.

所以我們會密切注意。我想澄清的是，我們給予的是我們的期望。我們的預期是建立在一些對沖之上，即生產率不會以波音希望的速度成長。因此，資本支出存在上行風險和下行風險。我認為我們將管理 70 億至 90 億美元的範圍，這就是為什麼我們今天想與大家分享這一點。

Appreciate that detail, Mike. And then maybe just a quick one for Andrew. And I've asked this before, I'm sorry if it's a little waste of time. But on international inbound or maybe a different way to say it, ex U.S. point of sale, where does that stand today? And as you think about your entities or geographies, are any of those starting to pick back up in terms of ex U.S. point of sale? Are you seeing any inflections?

欣賞這個細節，麥克。然後也許只是安德魯的一個快速的。我以前問過這個問題，如果有點浪費時間，我很抱歉。但在國際入境方面，或者也許換一種說法，即美國銷售點，現在情況如何？當您考慮您的實體或地區時，是否有任何實體或地區的美國銷售點開始回升？你看到任何改變嗎？

I would say, yes, we are seeing progress. The one place we look to the most is Germany and core Europe, and that's still trails. So hopefully, that will continue to move forward. But I think we're seeing really progress across the whole globe on rebalancing and being a little bit less dependent on the U.S. consumer to drive the global network.

我想說，是的，我們正在看到進展。我們最關注的地方是德國和歐洲核心地區，但這仍然是小徑。因此，希望這將繼續向前發展。但我認為，我們看到全球在再平衡方面確實取得了進展，並減少了對美國消費者推動全球網路的依賴。

Your next question comes from the line of Savi Syth from Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

I was just wondering on that 100 narrow-body aircraft per year, just what's the thought on the mix of growth versus replacement? And I guess, asked another way, I appreciate, Mike, you mentioned kind of taking into account macro realities, but what's the right level of kind of domestic growth as you kind of look over the next 3 to 4 years, assuming you can get the aircraft delivered.

我只是想知道每年 100 架窄體飛機，成長與更新的組合有何想法？我想，換個方式問，我很欣賞，麥克，你提到了考慮到宏觀現實，但是當你展望未來 3 到 4 年時，國內增長的正確水平是多少，假設你可以得到飛機已交付。

It's a great question, Savi. And for our growth rate in 2025, '26 and '27, you're going to have to wait for Investor Day later in the year. The 100 aircraft, we have the ability to fly some of our older aircraft longer. And given the delays from Boeing and Airbus, I would expect again, macro economy dependent that we would continue to fly our existing fleet until end of life when they're at heavy checks.

這是一個很好的問題，薩維。對於我們 2025 年、26 年和 27 年的成長率，您將不得不等待今年稍後的投資者日。在這 100 架飛機中，我們有能力讓一些舊飛機飛行更久。考慮到波音和空中巴士的延誤，我再次預計，取決於宏觀經濟，我們將繼續運作現有機隊，直到它們面臨嚴格檢查時的使用壽命結束。

But we always have the optionality. If yields are not strong to early retire some of those aircraft, and it's an economic decision when an aircraft is late in its life to early retire some of those aircraft that are less fuel efficient and very heavy maintenance. So I think of that as flexibility we have in the event of a macro event. But if there is absent a macro event, you should expect us to sweat our assets until end of life.

但我們總是有選擇的空間。如果產量不高，可以提前退役其中一些飛機，而當飛機壽命已晚時，提前退役一些燃油效率較低且維護工作量很大的飛機是一個經濟決策。所以我認為這是我們在發生宏觀事件時所擁有的彈性。但如果沒有發生宏觀事件，你應該期望我們會耗盡我們的資產直到壽命結束。

Got it. And just a follow-up, Mike, to a comment you made earlier on -- I appreciate the 2Q unit cost color. But as you think about the year just high level, I'm wondering what are the kind of the year-over-year headwinds that might kind of step down from now or maybe step up? I know your capacity is moderating a little bit from the levels in the first half. But just curious, given that you have more time, are you able to address more of the fixed cost as you get into the second half?

知道了。麥克，這是您之前發表的評論的後續行動——我很欣賞第二季的單位成本顏色。但當你考慮今年的高水準時，我想知道從現在開始可能會減弱或可能加劇的逐年不利因素是什麼？我知道你的能力與上半年的水平相比有所下降。但只是好奇，考慮到你有更多的時間，當你進入下半年時，你是否能夠解決更多的固定成本？

It's a great question, Savi. I would say you need to think about labor costs and when we lap and annualize some of those labor costs. So that would be the #1 factor you should put into your model around differences quarter-to-quarter. Number two, the CASM-ex impact of flying 40 less aircraft than we planned for this calendar year. You should expect those costs to linger as we get into the back half and particularly in the fourth quarter, some of those costs begin to moderate, but you should think about Q2 and Q3, those costs continuing to weigh us down.

這是一個很好的問題，薩維。我想說，你需要考慮勞動成本，以及我們何時對其中一些勞動成本進行統計和年化。因此，這將是您應該將季度差異納入模型的第一個因素。第二，CASM-ex 的影響是，今年飛行的飛機數量比我們計畫的減少了 40 架。您應該預計，隨著我們進入後半段，特別是在第四季度，這些成本將持續存在，其中一些成本開始放緩，但您應該考慮第二季度和第三季度，這些成本繼續為我們帶來來壓力。

Again, we will offset with the great operation we're running as we see completion factors move up, will offset partially. But those costs don't go away overnight. And I'll use this as an opportunity to also to talk about some longer-term cost initiatives that we've started since I've taken over in the CFO seat. Number one, tech ops, there are significant opportunities for us to drive efficiency in our tech ops driving efficiencies in our supply chain by optimizing the volume of parts we purchased and improving the rates we pay for those parts.

再次，我們將抵消我們正在運行的出色運營，因為我們看到完成因素上升，將部分抵消。但這些成本不會在一夜之間消失。我也會藉此機會談談自我接任財務長職位以來我們開始實施的一些長期成本計劃。第一，技術運營，我們有很大的機會透過優化我們購買的零件數量並提高我們為這些零件支付的價格來提高技術運營的效率，從而提高我們供應鏈的效率。

So we're undergoing a significant initiative there. I think the run rate you'll see from that initiative is more like 2025. We're also undergoing a significant procurement bottoms-up evaluation. We're going to go through waves, going through different vendors to make sure we have best pricing in the industry. Think this is going to be in the fullness of time, measured $100 million-plus in and cost efficiencies. Again, that's more like '25 and '26. But when I talk about unique United opportunities, I would put this in that category. And then finally, I'll highlight that we've got significant opportunities within our technology organization to help drive efficiencies throughout the full airline.

因此，我們正在那裡開展一項重大舉措。我認為您從該計劃中看到的運行率更像是 2025 年。我們將經歷波折，與不同的供應商合作，以確保我們擁有業內最好的定價。我認為這將在時間成熟的情況下完成，測量成本和成本效率超過 1 億美元。再說一遍，這更像是「25」和「26」。但當我談到曼聯獨特的機會時，我會把它歸類為這一類。最後，我要強調的是，我們的技術組織內有重要的機會來幫助提高整個航空公司的效率。

But one that I'll highlight is moving a lot of our mainframe computing into the cloud. That's something that you don't save the cost of moving to the cloud until you shut the mainframe down. So many cases, we've moved 70%, 80%, 90% to the cloud, but we still have to maintain that mainframe with 10% or 20% of the systems on that mainframe. So there's a little taste. We'll give a lot more fulsome answer at our upcoming Investor Day.

但我要強調的一點是將我們的大量大型主機運算轉移到雲端。在關閉大型主機之前，您無法節省遷移到雲端的成本。在許多情況下，我們已經將 70%、80%、90% 遷移到雲端，但我們仍然必須維護該大型主機，並在該大型主機上保留 10% 或 20% 的系統。所以有點味道。我們將在即將到來的投資者日給出更豐富的答案。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So that was sort of helpful color on back half CASM a little bit. Maybe just a similar thought on back half RASM, comps get easier? Is it fair to assume we see RASM accelerate in the back half of the year? Is there any other puts and takes to be thinking about?

所以這對後半部 CASM 來說有點有用的顏色。也許只是對後半 RASM 有類似的想法，比較變得更容易？假設我們看到 RASM 在今年下半年加速，是否公平？還有其他需要考慮的賣權嗎？

Just at a really high level, I would say that the (inaudible) fact set up domestically, I think is rough as in probably Q2, but gets better in Q3 and particularly better in Q4 is our estimate based on what we look at. So I think that is a nice trajectory.

在非常高的水平上，我想說的是，國內建立的（聽不清楚）事實，我認為可能與第二季度一樣粗糙，但在第三季度會變得更好，特別是在第四季度會更好，這是我們根據我們的觀察進行的估計。所以我認為這是一個很好的軌跡。

Second, we added a considerable amount of Asia Pacific capacity middle to late last year so as we lap that capacity, so it's now fully spooled up, we expect the line to improve and as we make capacity adjustments to unproductive capacity in that region, we also expect that's going to show some improvements.

其次，我們去年中後期增加了相當多的亞太地區產能，因此當我們消化這些產能時，它現在已經完全啟動，我們預計生產線會得到改善，當我們對該地區的非生產性產能進行產能調整時，我們也期望這會出現一些改進。

And that follows always through Q1 of next year. Latin America, the capacity picture has been particularly difficult for the first half of this year. As you all know, the second half looks, I think, very different. And so I'm optimistic that Latin is going to turn the quarter in Q3, although Q2 is still a very poor results. And in Europe, I think we've really sharpened our pencil. We paused growth for the most part this year on purpose.

這將持續到明年第一季。拉丁美洲今年上半年的運能狀況尤其困難。眾所周知，我認為下半場看起來非常不同。因此，我對拉丁語將在第三季扭虧為盈持樂觀態度，儘管第二季的業績仍然很差。在歐洲，我認為我們真的已經削尖了鉛筆。我們今年的大部分時間都故意暫停了成長。

And I'm particularly optimistic based on how we deploy capacity that Europe is going to look fine. So I'm not giving you the exact numbers, but that's how I look across the globe and see what's happening and think about positive or negative trajectory by region.

基於我們如何部署產能，我特別樂觀，歐洲看起來會很好。所以我不會給你確切的數字，但這就是我在全球範圍內觀察正在發生的事情並按地區思考積極或消極軌蹟的方式。

Okay. And then, Mike, I appreciate all your sort of comments on free cash flow. And I'd love maybe, Scott, to get your perspective on this discussion as well and maybe your thoughts on CapEx. Like if we wake up in 6 months and Boeing can start delivering a lot more planes again, could that -- in your mind, Scott, does that $7 billion to $9 billion go up again? Or maybe alternatively, is there something in your control that says, hey, maybe that $7 billion to $9 billion could come down even more?

好的。然後，邁克，我感謝您對自由現金流的所有評論。史考特，我也許也想了解您對這次討論的看法，也許還有您對資本支出的看法。就像如果我們在 6 個月後醒來，波音可以再次開始交付更多飛機，斯科特，在你看來，這 70 億至 90 億美元會再次增加嗎？或者，也許您可以控制一些東西，嘿，也許這 70 億至 90 億美元可能會下降更多？

Yes. I think the $7 billion to $9 billion is probably a pretty good number. And I think of it as we've ordered a lot of airlines more than anyone in history has ever done. And when you combine that with the supply chain challenges, as Mike described, is kind of a bow wave, you have 40 airplanes that are supposed to be delivered in 2023. They got pushed to 2024 and none of them got delivered and then yet another 20 in 2023 got pushed and so you have 60 in 2025.

是的。我認為70億到90億美元可能是一個相當不錯的數字。我認為我們訂購的航空公司數量比歷史上任何人都多。當你將其與供應鏈挑戰結合時，正如麥克所描述的，這是一種弓波，你有40 架飛機本應在2023 年交付。然後又是一架2023 年的 20 個被推遲，所以 2025 年有 60 個。

That also -- that wasn't just hard on the planning for us. It may things like training center, really hard to run effectively because constantly changing capacity plan, those are -- you're thinking about upgrading pilots and things like 18-month out decisions. So one of the things we attempted to do was level out the capacity. The aircraft deliveries, which we've done at approximately 100 per year. And so we'll have a lot -- at least a lot less variance, the standard deviation will be a lot less than it's been in the past.

這不僅對我們的規劃造成了困難。像培訓中心這樣的事情可能真的很難有效運行，因為容量計劃不斷變化，這些是——你正在考慮升級飛行員以及諸如 18 個月的決策之類的事情。因此，我們嘗試做的事情之一就是平衡容量。我們每年大約交付 100 架飛機。所以我們會有很多——至少方差會少很多，標準差會比過去少很多。

It's also kind of split 60-40 Boeing, Airbus, so there's a little more diversity in that number going forward. I don't think we'll take it out, but well, I know we're not planning to take it up because taking it up, drives things at the flight training center, just drives a lot of other complexities is just not worth. I think the other thing that we will -- I know that we're going to do now and going forward is build a little hedge into -- build a bigger hedge into our schedule.

這也是 60-40 架波音、空中巴士的拆分，所以未來這個數字會有更多的多樣性。我不認為我們會把它拿出來，但是，我知道我們不打算把它拿出來，因為把它拿出來，在飛行訓練中心驅動東西，只是驅動很多其他複雜的東西，這是不值得的。我認為我們要做的另一件事——我知道我們現在和未來要做的就是在我們的日程安排中建立一些對沖——建立一個更大的對沖。

And like if we think we're going to take 100 airplanes this year, we're going to only put 90% or some lower number into the schedule. And if everything is on time and on plan, then we'll have a few extra spares around for a couple of months. That will cost a little bit, but it doesn't cost nearly as much as overstaffing by 40 airplanes. And so I think it will give us not just certainty on CapEx, it will give us a lot more operational certainty for running everything better and more efficiently.

就像如果我們認為今年要購買 100 架飛機，我們只會將 90% 或更低的數量納入計劃中。如果一切都按計劃按時進行，那麼我們將有一些額外的備件可供幾個月使用。這會花費一點點，但並不比 40 架飛機的臃腫成本高。因此，我認為這不僅會為我們帶來資本支出的確定性，還會為我們帶來更多的營運確定性，讓一切更好、更有效率地運作。

Your next question comes from the line of Helane Becker from TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

So I have 2 questions. I think, Andrew, you talked about the quality of your product and the network and the loyalty and so on in your answer to somebody's question. But when you think about some of your alliance partners, they don't have the same commitment to service and any of the things that you just talked about that you have.

所以我有兩個問題。我想，安德魯，你在回答某人的問題時談到了你的產品品質、網路和忠誠度等等。但是當你想到你的一些聯盟夥伴時，他們並沒有對服務和你剛才談到的任何事情做出同樣的承諾。

So as you think about alliances going forward, and maybe this is a question for Patrick, how do you think about getting everybody on board to the same standard that you're setting so that you don't distress your customers when they have to connect because you're not flying some place non-stop that they want to go aspirational or they let your customers down.

因此，當您考慮未來的聯盟時，也許這是帕特里克的問題，您如何考慮讓每個人都遵守您設定的相同標準，以便您的客戶在必須連接時不會感到困擾因為您不會直飛某個他們想要去的地方，否則會讓你的客戶失望。

Okay. I'll start off with that. I'm not sure I agree with the premise of your question. I think our core partners have the highest of standards when I think about ANA at Air New Zealand to name a few. And I also think that Lufthansa has higher standards, look, they've gone through a number of strikes recently, which has been think rough on Lufthansa, the team and the customers, but I think they're behind that now.

好的。我將從這個開始。我不確定我是否同意你問題的前提。當我想到紐西蘭航空的全日空航空時，我認為我們的核心合作夥伴擁有最高的標準。我還認為漢莎航空有更高的標準，看，他們最近經歷了多次罷工，這對漢莎航空、團隊和客戶來說都是很糟糕的，但我認為他們現在已經落後了。

And I think their commitment and all of our commitment to customer service is actually pretty consistent. And we're so proud to be in joint ventures with each of these airlines, and we sit around the table. I'd like to say, without lawyers and we work through difficult problems, and we talk about how to make the level of customer service more and more seamless each quarter. That being said, we are from different countries and different cultures, and we have different ways of approaching our business.

我認為他們的承諾和我們對客戶服務的所有承諾實際上是非常一致的。我們非常自豪能夠與這些航空公司建立合資企業，並且我們坐在一起。我想說，沒有律師，我們會解決困難的問題，我們會討論如何讓每季的客戶服務水準變得越來越無縫。話雖這麼說，我們來自不同的國家和不同的文化，我們有不同的開展業務的方式。

And quite frankly, we think that some of those differences are really important. They reflect to each of these airlines are and their unique identity. So we don't -- we're not trying to harmonize across every single product detail on how we build alliances. But that being said, I do think we have a similar alignment of customer first and going forward, and we also plug in.

坦白說，我們認為其中一些差異非常重要。它們反映了每家航空公司的獨特性。所以我們不會——我們不會試圖協調我們如何建立聯盟的每一個產品細節。但話雖這麼說，我確實認為我們在客戶至上和未來方面有著類似的一致性，而且我們也參與其中。

We have the best alliance partners with the best hubs around the globe, which is one of the reasons that we have the leading network, and I think we're more profitable in this global network relative to our primary competitors.

我們擁有最好的聯盟合作夥伴和全球最好的樞紐，這是我們擁有領先網路的原因之一，而且我認為相對於我們的主要競爭對手，我們在這個全球網路中的利潤更高。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just for my follow-up question, Maybe, Mike, as we think about the earnings guidance for the second quarter, how should we think about like the percentage, corporate, leisure, domestic, international. Are you starting to skew more corporate international in the next 6 months than you have in the past? Or how should we think about that breakdown?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後，對於我的後續問題，也許，麥克，當我們考慮第二季的獲利指引時，我們應該如何考慮百分比、企業、休閒、國內、國際。在接下來的 6 個月裡，您是否會開始比過去更專注於企業國際化？或者我們該如何看待這種崩潰？

I would just say that all of the above, domestic leisure has been really strong. And despite that historically being an area where we were less than -- we had less of an exposure than some of our peers. We've done an incredible job. Now business demand is clearly continuing to come back. And that's wind in our sales from a relative perspective.

我只想說，綜上所述，國內休閒確實很強大。儘管從歷史上看，這是一個我們較少涉足的領域，但我們的曝光度卻低於一些同行。我們做了一項令人難以置信的工作。現在，業務需求顯然正在持續回升。從相對的角度來看，這就是我們銷售的風向。

So I think as we've said, it's been the theme of the call, the current results at United are very strong, but the future is even brighter. So feel great about business continuing to drive our relative results.

所以我認為正如我們所說，這一直是這次電話會議的主題，曼聯目前的成績非常強勁，但未來更加光明。因此，我們對業務繼續推動我們的相對業績感到高興。

I'll add one incremental fact, Helane. The growth in Polaris load factors has been pretty significant year-over-year. And the growth in premium load factors across the board at United Airlines, our paid premium load factor was up 9 points year-over-year in the quarter, which is amazing. But as we revenue manage all of that, we kept all of the premium leisure, got passengers in their seats as we added more corporate into their seats.

我要添加一個增量事實，Helane。北極星負載率年增率相當顯著。聯合航空的保費載客率全面成長，我們的付費保費載客率在本季度同比增長了 9 個百分點，這令人驚嘆。但當我們對這一切進行收入管理時，我們保留了所有的高級休閒服務，讓乘客坐在自己的座位上，同時我們也增加了更多的企業座位。

So we were able to do both. And that is one of the reasons for the great execution in the quarter is that we see corporate rebound in, but we see the desire for premium products by leisure customers continue to be strong.

所以我們能夠做到這兩點。本季執行力優異的原因之一是我們看到企業反彈，但我們看到休閒客戶對優質產品的需求仍然強勁。

So is the answer then you're putting more premium seats? Because if you have corporate demand for the same seats, you're pricing up to lose some, right? Don't you have to price that to lose some of that demand?

那麼答案就是你要設定更多的高級座位嗎？因為如果企業對相同的座位有需求，你就會定價以失去一些，對吧？難道你不需要定價才能失去一些需求嗎？

What happened in this figure case is during the pandemic, we had very high free load factors in some of these premium cabins, and that number is coming down more towards normal.

這個數位案例中發生的情況是在大流行期間，我們在其中一些高級客艙中的空載率非常高，並且該數字正在下降到接近正常水平。

Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基。

Mike, can you give us some insight on how you're planning for the cost structure in '25 through '27 just given the variability that you gave us on CapEx and that I know it's aspirational to get 100 deliveries every year, and Scott spoke to it as well, maybe you filter in some buffer here on spare aircraft. But how do you think about hiring, especially given that some of these training events might be an 18- month decision?

麥克，您能否給我們一些關於您在25 年到27 年期間如何規劃成本結構的見解，考慮到您在資本支出方面給我們提供的可變性，而且我知道每年交付100 架的願望是理想的，斯科特發言對此，也許您可以在備用飛機上過濾一些緩衝區。但您如何看待招聘，尤其是考慮到其中一些培訓活動可能需要 18 個月的時間才能做出決定？

I think by level loading or aircraft delivery schedule and making the skyline stable, we're going to be able to better match our flight attendant. We're going to be better match our pilot hiring. So that the inefficiencies that we're discussing right now around, again, the 40 less aircraft we have for this year, those inefficiencies will work themselves out.

我認為透過水平裝載或飛機交付時間表以及使天際線穩定，我們將能夠更好地匹配我們的空服人員。我們將更好地匹配我們的飛行員招募。因此，我們現在討論的效率低下的問題，再次，今年我們減少了 40 架飛機，這些低效率問題將會自行解決。

And so that's what's critical to this. But in addition to our overall cost structure, when we think about the inflationary world that we've been in, that pressure is going to -- the industry is going to continue to face that. But at United, we have the gauge benefit and that gauge benefit will be metered in a smooth way. So I feel very excited about that.

這就是對此的關鍵。但除了我們的整體成本結構之外，當我們考慮我們所處的通貨膨脹世界時，這種壓力將是該行業將繼續面臨的。但在曼聯，我們有軌距效益，軌距效益將以平穩的方式計量。所以我對此感到非常興奮。

Okay. Appreciate that. And maybe just a quick one for you, Mike. I know you guys had wanted to do an analyst meeting soon here, and that's going to get pushed back. But any strategic teasers you want to give us a MileagePlus because I know it's been a focus of yours in the team.

好的。感謝。也許對你來說只是一個快速的，麥克。我知道你們想很快在這裡召開分析師會議，但這會被推遲。但您希望向我們提供前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 的任何策略預告片，因為我知道這一直是您團隊的焦點。

I will repeat what I've said in the past. MileagePlus, it's a crown jewel in the assets we have here at United Airlines. It was a critical source of collateral during the pandemic. But the dream is that it is recognized, the value of that asset, the value of that business, especially as we grow it, is recognized in our equity market cap. It's not there today.

我將重複我過去說過的話。前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 是聯合航空資產皇冠上的明珠。它是大流行期間抵押品的重要來源。但夢想是它得到認可，該資產的價值、該業務的價值，特別是隨著我們的發展，在我們的股票市值中得到認可。今天不在那裡。

You're going to see us continue to give more and more disclosure, more and more transparency to that business. You're going to see us share more and more details on the growth plans we have for the data in that business. And eventually, if we get no value in our market cap, we'll take more aggressive actions. I've given a consistent message on that, and you'll hear even more at our Investor Day.

您將看到我們繼續為該業務提供越來越多的揭露和透明度。您將看到我們分享越來越多有關該業務數據增長計劃的詳細資訊。最終，如果我們的市值沒有價值，我們將採取更積極的行動。我已經就此發出了一致的信息，您會在我們的投資者日聽到更多信息。

Thank you. We will now switch to the media portion of the call. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Mary Schlangenstein from Bloomberg.

謝謝。我們現在將切換到通話的媒體部分。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自彭博社的 Mary Schlangenstein。

That was close. I wanted to. So I wanted to see if you could give a little bit more detail on the aircraft that were delayed from second quarter to third quarter as part of the FAA review, whether you can tell us what -- how many aircraft, what types of aircraft and specifically how the FAA resulted in the delays?

那很接近了。我想要。因此，我想知道您是否可以提供有關作為聯邦航空局審查的一部分從第二季度推遲到第三季度的飛機的更多詳細信息，您是否可以告訴我們什麼——有多少架飛機、什麼類型的飛機以及具體來說，聯邦航空局是如何導致延誤的？

I'll try. I don't think we know for sure yet. I think we've got 3 airplanes that are coming in the next few months. They're MAX aircraft, MAX-9, 3 aircraft that are coming in the next few months, and we'll continue to work with the FAA on -- I'm going to change that. What we're mostly focused on, though, that's not what we are focused on.

我會盡力。我認為我們還不確定。我認為我們將在未來幾個月內推出 3 架飛機。它們是 MAX 飛機、MAX-9，以及未來幾個月將推出的 3 架飛機，我們將繼續與 FAA 合作——我將改變這一點。然而，我們最關注的並不是我們所關注的。

We are focused on figuring out everything I said in this call, how to use this, embracing this process as an opportunity to get a new higher standard for safety. As we go through that process, there will be some point along the way where we'll start taking aircraft deliveries again. But that is absolutely not our focus nor should it be our focus.

我們專注於弄清楚我在這次電話會議中所說的一切，如何使用它，並將這個過程視為獲得新的更高安全標準的機會。當我們經歷這個過程時，我們將在某個時刻再次開始接收飛機交付。但這絕對不是我們的重點，也不該是我們的重點。

Okay. They haven't -- the FAA hasn't prohibited any aircraft deliveries. Is that right? It's just the start of the use of some of those planes? Or is it actually the deliveries themselves?

好的。他們沒有——美國聯邦航空局沒有禁止任何飛機交付。是對的嗎？這只是其中一些飛機的使用的開始？還是實際上是交貨本身？

It's putting -- it's not the delivery. It's putting them on the [certificate].

這是推桿——不是交付。它將它們放在[證書]上。

Right, right. Okay. Okay. And you said it's just 3 for right now. Okay. Great. And my second question was you all talked a lot about the corporate rebound and how that's playing out. But is there different that you expect to see in summer travel this season. Like it sounds like there might have been some geographic shifts for some areas that were strong last summer won't be as strong this summer? And do you expect the domestic market to be particularly strong this summer?

是的是的。好的。好的。你說現在只有 3 個。好的。偉大的。我的第二個問題是，你們都談到了企業的反彈以及結果如何。但是，您期望在本季的夏季旅行中看到什麼不同？聽起來好像去年夏天表現強勁的某些地區今年夏天可能會出現一些地理變化？您預計今年夏天國內市場會特別強勁嗎？

As we head into the summer season, we expect strength across the board to the United network tilts in terms of our best seasonality towards Q2 and Q3 and particularly across the Atlantic, across specific and transcon within the United States. So we expect all of those entities to perform really strongly this year. And everything we have in terms of data right now, I would say that's where we stand.

隨著夏季的到來，我們預計美聯航網絡的全面實力將向第二季和第三季的最佳季節性傾斜，特別是跨大西洋、跨美國境內的特定和運輸。因此，我們預計所有這些實體今年都會表現強勁。我想說，我們現在所掌握的數據就是我們的立場。

Do you expect to set another record for this summer for passenger numbers?

您預計今年夏天的旅客人數會再創紀錄嗎？

Yes, I think we will, as an airline and as an industry.

是的，我認為作為一家航空公司和一個行業，我們會的。

Your next question comes from the line of Leslie Josephs from CNBC.

你的下一個問題來自 CNBC 的 Leslie Josephs。

Can you exactly -- what the FAA review prohibits you from doing? And is the change to the fleet plan from this year because of the Boeing delays in production and deliveries or because of the FAA review? And then on -- just a question on the mechanical issues lately. Have you had to update kind of procedures or anything else for your technicians so that those things don't happen, maybe things that were getting overlooked or not part of checklist prior?

你能確切地知道——美國聯邦航空局的審查禁止你做什麼嗎？今年起重機計劃的改變是因為波音推遲生產和交付還是因為美國聯邦航空管理局的審查？然後——最近有一個關於機械問題的問題。您是否必須為技術人員更新某種程序或其他任何內容，以便這些事情不會發生，也許是之前被忽視或不屬於清單的一部分？

First, the delivery delays are 100% of the issue. And the main focus has been less about changing the policies and processes, but really making sure that everyone keeps safety as a top of mind awareness and spending a lot more time with the leadership team out talking about it, really making sure that safety is top of mind awareness.

首先，交貨延遲是 100% 的問題。主要重點不是改變政策和流程，而是真正確保每個人都將安全視為首要意識，並花更多時間與領導團隊討論這個問題，真正確保安全是第一位的心靈意識。

Now we, of course, will go through with the FA and go through a pretty rigorous process and we continuously look at ways to improve safety across the board, and that's continuing. It's at an elevated level right now of looking for ideas, but that's not something unique or new that is -- we have hundreds of people whose full-time jobs are doing that day in and day out.

當然，現在我們將與英足總合作，並透過一個相當嚴格的流程，我們不斷尋找全面提高安全性的方法，而這種情況仍在繼續。現在尋找想法的水平很高，但這並不是什麼獨特或新鮮的事情——我們有數百人日復一日地做著全職工作。

And the review prevents you from putting new aircraft into service and then what else is a captain upgrade. Anything else?

而且審查會阻止您將新飛機投入使用，然後還有什麼是機長升級。還要別的嗎？

No. That's not it. We can do capital upgrades.

不，不是這樣的。我們可以進行資本升級。

So it's just putting new aircraft into service.

所以它只是將新飛機投入使用。

That's the primary thing.

這是首要的事情。

Okay. When do you expect the review to conclude?

好的。您預計審核什麼時候結束？

That's, again, the way we would think of this is. This is about going through a process to make it better using this as an opportunity to create a new higher standard, and it will conclude when it concludes. We're not going to predict the time.

這也是我們思考這個問題的方式。這是關於透過一個過程來使其更好，以此為契機創建一個新的更高標準，當它結束時它就會結束。我們不會預測時間。

Thank you. I will now turn the call back over to Kristina Edwards for closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我將把電話轉回給克里斯蒂娜·愛德華茲（Kristina Edwards）做總結發言。

Thanks, Krista, and thanks for everyone joining our great call today. Please contact IR or Media Relations if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

謝謝克里斯塔，也謝謝大家今天加入我們的偉大通話。如果您有任何其他問題，請聯絡 IR 或媒體關係，我們期待下季與您交談。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束，現在你們可以斷線了。