聯合航空 (UAL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to United Airlines Holdings' earnings conference call for the third-quarter 2024.

早安，歡迎參加聯合航空控股公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

My name is Krista, and I will be your conference facilitator today.

我叫克里斯塔，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。

Following the initial remarks from management, we will open the lines for questions.

在管理層發表初步評論後，我們將開放提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded and is copyrighted.

（操作員說明）此通話正在錄音並受版權保護。

Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed or rebroadcast without the company's permission.

請注意，未經本公司許可，不得對通話的任何部分進行錄音、轉錄或轉播。

Your participation implies your consent to our recording of this call.

您的參與即表示您同意我們對本次通話進行錄音。

If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line.

如果您不同意這些條款，只需掛斷電話即可。

I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Kristina Edwards, Managing Director of Investor Relations.

現在，我將把簡報交給今天電話會議的主持人、投資者關係董事總經理 Kristina Edwards。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Krista.

謝謝你，克里斯塔。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

大家早安，歡迎參加美聯航 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our website at ir.united.com. Information in yesterday's release and the remarks made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, which represent the company's current expectations.

昨天，我們發布了收益報告，可在我們的網站 ir.united.com 上取得。昨天發布的資訊和本次電話會議中的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述代表了公司目前的預期。

All forward-looking statements are based upon information currently available to the company.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於公司目前掌握的資訊。

A number of these factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

其中許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異。

Please refer to our earnings release, Form 10-K and 10-Q and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors.

請參閱我們的收益報告、表格 10-K 和 10-Q 以及聯合航空控股公司和聯合航空向 SEC 提交的其他報告，以更全面地描述這些因素。

Unless otherwise noted, we will be discussing our financial metrics on a non-GAAP basis on this call.

除非另有說明，我們將在本次電話會議上討論非公認會計原則的財務指標。

Please refer to the related definitions and reconciliations in our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的相關定義和調節。

For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings release.

有關這些非公認會計準則衡量標準與最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量標準的調節，請參閱我們收益發布末尾的表格。

Joining us on the call today to discuss our results and outlook are Chief Executive Officer, J. Scott Kirby; President, Brett Hart; Executive Vice President and Chief Customer Officer, Linda Jojo; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Leskinen.

今天加入我們的電話會議討論我們的業績和前景的是首席執行官 J. Scott Kirby；主席布雷特·哈特；執行副總裁兼首席客戶長 Linda Jojo；執行副總裁兼首席商務官安德魯‧諾切拉；執行副總裁兼財務長 Mike Leskinen。

In addition, we have other members of the executive team on the line available to assist with the Q&A.

此外，我們還有其他管理團隊成員在線上協助問答。

And now I'd like to call -- turn the call over to Scott.

現在我想打電話給史考特。

All right.

好的。

Thanks, Kristina, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝克里斯蒂娜，大家早安。

Before we start, I want to acknowledge the devastation that has occurred in the Southeast due to severe hurricanes that impacted the region.

在我們開始之前，我想承認東南部地區因嚴重颶風而遭受的破壞。

The United team has been working overtime to get our customers and employees safely in and out of the impacted areas.

美聯航團隊一直在加班加點，以確保我們的客戶和員工安全進出受影響地區。

We've also raised hurricane relief funds and transported humanitarian aid to the region.

我們也籌集了颶風救災資金並向該地區運送了人道援助物資。

Turning to the quarter.

轉向季度。

The inflection we spoke about on our last call has happened and we're seeing unprofitable capacity to begin to exit the market, leading to the expected domestic yield improvement.

我們在上次電話會議中談到的轉折點已經發生，我們看到無利可圖的產能開始退出市場，導致預期的國內產量改善。

We once again delivered a solid quarter, and I want to thank the United team for taking care of our customers and producing these strong results all while strengthening the culture that puts the safety of our customers and employees first.

我們再次實現了穩健的季度業績，我要感謝美聯航團隊在加強將客戶和員工安全放在首位的文化的同時，照顧我們的客戶並取得了這些出色的業績。

Today's results are another proof point of what we've been outlining was going to happen on these calls for several years now, both at United and in the industry more broadly.

今天的結果再次證明了我們幾年來在這些電話會議中所概述的事情將會發生，無論是在曼聯還是在更廣泛的行業內。

So how have we gotten here?

那我們是怎麼到這裡的呢？

Over the last several years, United has worked hard to improve the customer experience.

在過去的幾年裡，美聯航一直致力於改善客戶體驗。

That starts with a great culture and great people that are proud to be a part of United and want you, our customers to feel the same way.

這始於偉大的文化和優秀的員工，他們為成為美聯航的一員而感到自豪，並希望您（我們的客戶）也有同樣的感受。

Over a multiyear period, we've also made significant product investments that are important to our customers, like new aircraft with seatback screens and power in every seat, expanding clubs and the fastest WiFi in the industry with Starling.

在多年的時間裡，我們還進行了對客戶很重要的重大產品投資，例如配備座椅靠背螢幕和每個座位都有電源的新飛機、擴大俱樂部以及 Starling 提供業界最快的 WiFi。

United is also the clear innovation leader in global aviation, and our technology is now without question, the best of any airline in the world and by a wide margin.

美聯航也是全球航空領域明顯的創新領導者，我們的技術毫無疑問是世界上最好的航空公司，而且遙遙領先。

One of the most common comments I get from customers now is about how much better the United app is than any other airline.

我現在從客戶那裡得到的最常見的評論之一是美聯航應用程式比任何其他航空公司都要好得多。

But no investment has been more important than the almost $10 billion investment we've made in our people over the last four years.

但沒有什麼投資比我們在過去四年為員工進行的近 100 億美元的投資更重要。

During this time, we also reached industry-leading contracts with four of our five major work groups.

在此期間，我們還與五個主要工作組中的四個達成了行業領先的合約。

We're currently in federal mediation with the AFA, we are committed to reaching the same kind of agreement for our flight attendants.

我們目前正在與 AFA 進行聯邦調解，我們致力於為我們的空服員達成同樣的協議。

But we knew that doing all of that following COVID would be difficult.

但我們知道，在新冠疫情之後完成所有這些工作將會很困難。

We could have just hoped that the world would revert to pre-covid norms.

我們本來可以希望世界能夠恢復到新冠疫情之前的常態。

That's allowed us to be consistently ahead of the curve and often move opposite the consensus, and we've been consistently right.

這使我們能夠始終走在潮流的前面，並且經常與共識相反，而且我們一直都是正確的。

All of these actions and investments, combined with our [United Next plan] have propelled United to a leadership position operationally, financially and for our customers' employees.

所有這些行動和投資，再加上我們的 [United Next 計畫]，已推動美聯航在營運、財務和客戶員工方面處於領先地位。

All these actions position United to provide benefits to all of our stakeholders.

所有這些行動都使美聯航能夠為所有利害關係人帶來利益。

Financially stable, secure careers for our people, improved experience for customers.

財務穩定，員工的職涯有保障，顧客體驗得到改善。

And now that we've done those two things, we can return value to our shareholders.

現在我們已經完成了這兩件事，我們可以為股東回報價值。

This success has led to our strong financial results that have facilitated our ability to restore our balance sheet and position us to take the next step in solidifying our leadership position in the industry.

這一成功為我們帶來了強勁的財務業績，促進了我們恢復資產負債表的能力，並使我們能夠採取下一步措施，鞏固我們在行業中的領導地位。

Our Board of Directors has approved a $1.5 billion share repurchase program.

我們的董事會已批准一項價值 15 億美元的股票回購計畫。

Mike will go into the details about our capital allocation framework, but this is a critical next step for United as we work to create value for all of our stakeholders.

麥克將詳細介紹我們的資本分配框架，但這對美聯航來說是關鍵的下一步，因為我們致力於為所有利益相關者創造價值。

We're proud of our current results and excited about the innovation that we have ahead for customers.

我們對目前的成果感到自豪，並對我們為客戶帶來的創新感到興奮。

We're also glad to see that the industry inflection point, which we've been predicting has actually happened.

我們也很高興看到我們一直預測的產業轉折點實際上已經發生了。

We believe that all sets United up to expand margin in the years to come.

我們相信，所有這些都有助於曼聯在未來幾年擴大利潤率。

And with that, I'll hand it to Brett.

接下來，我會把它交給布雷特。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning.

謝謝你，斯科特，早安。

I'd also like to thank the United team for closing out this summer on a high note.

我還要感謝曼聯以高調結束了這個夏天。

This quarter was the busiest third quarter in company history, setting the company records for the most ever passengers carried on the July 4 and Labor Day holidays and for the highest number of customers carried in a day at 552,000 in July, despite record numbers of passengers, and challenging weather across our network.

本季度是公司歷史上最繁忙的第三季度，創下了公司歷史上7 月4 日和勞動節假期載客量最多的記錄，以及7 月份單日載客量最高的記錄，達到552,000 人次，儘管乘客數量創歷史新高，以及我們網路中充滿挑戰的天氣。

We ranked first in on-time departure and second in on-time arrival amongst major US airlines for the third quarter with the best on-time departure in the months of August and September.

第三季度，我們在美國主要航空公司中起飛準點率排名第一，到達準點率排名第二，其中 8 月和 9 月的出發準點率最好。

These results are a testament to the investments we have made in our operations, resources and tools to bolster the durability and resilience of our operation.

這些結果證明了我們在營運、資源和工具方面的投資，以增強我們營運的持久性和彈性。

These investments, along with what we've learned from operating in challenging geographies has further improved our recovery during weather and irregular operations events.

這些投資，加上我們在充滿挑戰的地區運作中學到的經驗，進一步改善了我們在天氣和不正常營運事件期間的恢復。

In addition, our safety measures have only become stronger this year with additional investments in our people and technology.

此外，隨著對人員和技術的額外投資，我們的安全措施今年只會變得更加強大。

This year, we launched training for our pilots focused on safety and professionalism and more will be rolled out next year.

今年，我們為飛行員啟動了以安全和專業為重點的培訓，明年還將推出更多培訓。

We added additional safety resources across the operation, and we are investing in new technology that will make it easier for employees to engage with our safety programs.

我們在整個營運過程中增加了額外的安全資源，並且正在投資新技術，使員工更容易參與我們的安全計畫。

Running a safe and reliable operation is the backbone of this airline and one of the many contributors to the success of our business.

安全可靠的營運是這家航空公司的支柱，也是我們業務成功的眾多貢獻者之一。

Investing in the customer experience has also been key to widening our competitive advantage.

投資客戶體驗也是擴大我們競爭優勢的關鍵。

Our NPS scores continue to reflect the benefit from these investments.

我們的 NPS 分數繼續反映這些投資的收益。

Our third quarter NPS was up 5 points versus the same period last year. and is up 24 points versus 2019 year to date.

我們第三季的 NPS 比去年同期上升了 5 個百分點。與 2019 年迄今相比上升了 24 個百分點。

These results would not have been possible without the vision and leadership of our Executive Vice President and Chief Customer Officer, Linda Jojo.

如果沒有我們執行副總裁兼首席客戶長 Linda Jojo 的遠見和領導，這些成果是不可能實現的。

Last month, Linda shared the news that she will retire at the end of this year.

上個月，琳達分享了她將於今年底退休的消息。

In her 10 years, Linda led a team that revolutionized air travel and has enabled so many of our industry-leading customer innovations.

在 Linda 的 10 年裡，她領導的團隊徹底改變了航空旅行，並實現了我們許多領先業界的客戶創新。

These innovations have continued to set United apart and have delivered real value to our brand and our business.

這些創新繼續讓美聯航脫穎而出，並為我們的品牌和業務帶來了真正的價值。

But the most lasting element of her legacy is likely to be the impact that she had on our culture and is well known across the company.

但她的遺產中最持久的元素可能是她對我們文化的影響，並且在整個公司中眾所周知。

Her commitment to mentoring the next generation of leaders at United, especially women.

她致力於指導曼聯的下一代領導人，特別是女性。

Countless people, men and women across the airline, not just on her team, have benefited from Linda's wisdom and her willingness to generously share it.

整個航空公司的無數人，無論男女，而不僅僅是她的團隊，都從琳達的智慧和她慷慨分享智慧的意願中受益。

Her leadership will not be easily replaced but it's certainly an example we'll aim to follow.

她的領導地位不會輕易被取代，但這無疑是我們努力學習的典範。

Now that I have thoroughly embarrassed her, let me hand it off to Linda to talk about the changes she has seen at United in her 10 years.

現在我已經讓她徹底難堪了，接下來就讓琳達來談談她在曼聯這十年裡所看到的改變吧。

Thanks, Brett.

謝謝，布雷特。

We believe that United has the best hub cities, the best network and the best people.

我們相信美聯航擁有最好的樞紐城市、最好的網路和最優秀的員工。

But to create an airline that customers choose to fly, we need to deliver a great customer experience.

但要創建一家客戶選擇搭乘的航空公司，我們需要提供卓越的客戶體驗。

That's why over the last decade, we've invested over $14 billion in technology to help our employees work more efficiently and deliver outstanding service.

這就是為什麼在過去十年中，我們投資了超過 140 億美元的技術來幫助我們的員工更有效率地工作並提供卓越的服務。

We believe these investments give United a unique competitive advantage further strengthening our brand and foster a culture of innovation that's hard to match.

我們相信這些投資將為美聯航帶來獨特的競爭優勢，進一步強化我們的品牌並培養難以匹敵的創新文化。

For example, one of the first decisions we made when I joined United was to issue iPhones to our flight attendants.

例如，當我加入美聯航時，我們做出的第一個決定就是向我們的空服員發放 iPhone。

Once these devices were in our employees' hands, it unlocked a new way of thinking for both our frontline and our digital technology teams.

一旦這些設備到達我們的員工手中，它就為我們的第一線和數位技術團隊開啟了一種新的思維方式。

These devices now help our flight attendants deliver more personalized service.

這些設備現在可以幫助我們的空服人員提供更個人化的服務。

From recognizing someone's birthday to offering in the moment care to sharing connecting gate information, building stronger connections with our customers and drive our higher NPS scores along the way.

從識別某人的生日到提供即時護理，再到共享轉機登機口信息，與客戶建立更牢固的聯繫，並一路推動我們更高的 NPS 分數。

We've also moved to a paperless flight deck, issued iPads to our technicians, upgraded our contact center, crew scheduling and airport tools, resulting in more efficient aircraft turns and better crew communication. -- especially during our regular operations.

我們還採用了無紙化飛行甲板，向我們的技術人員發放了 iPad，升級了我們的聯絡中心、機組人員調度和機場工具，從而提高了飛機轉彎效率並改善了機組人員的溝通。 ——尤其是在我們的日常營運期間。

This culture of innovation, combined with our investments in our technology infrastructure, enabled us to launch dozens of industry-first capabilities for our customers and employees.

這種創新文化與我們對技術基礎設施的投資相結合，使我們能夠為客戶和員工推出數十項業界首創的功能。

For example, we launched ConnectionSaver more than five years ago, saving the day for over 3 million customers since then.

例如，我們在五年多前推出了 ConnectionSaver，從那時起就已經為超過 300 萬名客戶挽救了局面。

This is a customer benefit still not copied by other airlines.

這是其他航空公司尚未複製的客戶福利。

Like Scott, I'm very proud of our app.

和斯科特一樣，我對我們的應用程式感到非常自豪。

It's used by nearly 90% of our customers on the day of travel, where they can save up to 30 minutes at the airport.

我們近 90% 的客戶在旅行當天使用它，他們可以在機場節省長達 30 分鐘的時間。

And when things don't go as planned, we take steps to automatically rebook you, and we've introduced new features like allowing customers to list standby for earlier flights and access to hotel and meal vouchers.

當事情沒有按計劃進行時，我們會採取措施自動為您重新預訂，並且我們還推出了新功能，例如允許客戶列出較早航班的候補名單以及獲得酒店和餐券。

Our self-service success rates in the app have doubled since making these changes, which translates to customers getting on their way faster and our employees freed up to assist those customers who need more help.

自從進行這些更改以來，我們在應用程式中的自助服務成功率增加了一倍，這意味著客戶可以更快地上路，我們的員工也可以騰出時間來幫助那些需要更多幫助的客戶。

Our patented agent on-to-band technology gives customers the option to text, talk or video call, a live agent from the United app and enables our teams to collaborate across airports, aligning our people resources to where they're needed most.

我們的專利代理帶內技術讓客戶可以選擇透過美聯航應用程式進行簡訊、通話或視訊通話，成為現場代理，並使我們的團隊能夠跨機場協作，將我們的人力資源分配到最需要的地方。

During a recent storm in Houston, over 7,000 customers go live -- got help from live United Airport agents already on duty in other airports who were not impacted by the storm.

在最近休士頓的一場風暴期間，超過 7,000 名客戶開始使用現場服務，並得到了聯合機場現場工作人員的幫助，這些工作人員已在其他未受風暴影響的機場值班。

Our pace of innovation continues.

我們的創新步伐仍在持續。

So far this year, we've allowed customers to be automatically moved to a preferred seat, created a slight filter, so travelers can confirm that aircraft can accommodate their wheelchair, expanded live activities to Apple Watch and signed the industry's largest deal with Starlink for in-flight WiFi.

今年到目前為止，我們已經允許乘客自動轉移到首選座位，創建了一個輕微的過濾器，以便旅客可以確認飛機可以容納他們的輪椅，將現場活動擴展到Apple Watch，並與Starlink 簽署了業界最大的協議機上 WiFi。

The Starlink announcement was a full circle moment for me.

星鏈的宣布對我來說是一個完整的時刻。

Finding a way to improve in-flight WiFi has been a year's long challenge.

尋找改進機上 WiFi 的方法一直是一年來的挑戰。

And like when we gave iPhones to our flight attendants nearly a decade ago, I think this will completely transform the onboard experience in ways we probably can't imagine today.

就像近十年前我們向空服人員提供 iPhone 一樣，我認為這將以我們今天可能無法想像的方式徹底改變機上體驗。

And that's why I can't wait to see what the team will do next.

這就是為什麼我迫不及待地想看看團隊下一步會做什麼。

I'll now hand it over to Andrew to talk about the revenue environment.

我現在將把它交給安德魯來談談收入環境。

It's been an exciting decade at United.

在曼聯度過了激動人心的十年。

Thank you, Linda.

謝謝你，琳達。

United, we take great pride in our leading RASM results over the last few years.

團結起來，我們對過去幾年領先的 RASM 成績感到非常自豪。

Our segmentation strategies, multiple product choices from basic to Polaris, and network capacity deployment decisions have created strong relative margins for United versus others.

我們的細分策略、從基本型到北極星的多種產品選擇以及網路容量部署決策為美聯航創造了相對於其他公司而言較高的相對利潤。

Elimination of change fees and the swapping out of single class RJs for mainland jets has been very positive for United and negative for our competitors.

取消變更費以及將單艙 RJ 飛機更換為大陸飛機對美聯航來說非常有利，但對我們的競爭對手來說卻是不利的。

Turning to our third quarter revenue results.

轉向我們第三季的收入結果。

United's top line revenue grew 2.5% year over year to $14.8 billion on 1.1% more capacity versus the third quarter of '23.

美聯航的營收年增 2.5%，達到 148 億美元，運力較 20 年第三季增加 1.1%。

Consolidated PRASM was down 1.6% year over year, aligned with our expectations of a challenging domestic industry capacity dynamic in July.

綜合 PRASM 年減 1.6%，符合我們對 7 月份國內產業產能動態充滿挑戰的預期。

As expected, we reached the domestic inflection point.

正如預期的那樣，我們已經到達了國內拐點。

Domestic PRASM was slightly positive in August and September year-over-year, which was a material improvement from earlier in the quarter were down 4%.

國內 PRASM 8 月和 9 月同比略有增長，較本季早些時候下降 4% 有了實質改善。

United's domestic capacity in 2024 was shaped with the expectation that the industry would remove unprofitable capacity in earnest in Q4.

美聯航 2024 年的國內產能是基於該行業將在第四季度認真消除不盈利產能的預期而製定的。

As a result, United expanded slower than most during the first three quarters of the year, when capacity dynamics were less favorable, but importantly, our timing was right, tilting our growth to the quarter where the industry conditions would be the best.

因此，今年前三個季度，當運力動態不太有利時，美聯航的擴張速度比大多數公司都要慢，但重要的是，我們的時機是正確的，將我們的成長傾斜到產業狀況最好的季度。

Network and business model changes due to large financial losses by others are resulting in an improving domestic and near Latin America pricing and yield environment, we expect more of the same in 2025.

由於其他人造成巨額財務損失而導致的網路和業務模式發生變化，導致國內和拉丁美洲附近的定價和收益環境有所改善，我們預計 2025 年會出現更多相同情況。

The time in our growth push into Europe in 2022 and 2023 proved to be spot on with the recovery in demand post pandemic.

事實證明，我們在 2022 年和 2023 年向歐洲推進成長的時間恰逢疫情後需求的復甦。

This year, we allowed capacity added in 2022 and 2023 to mature creating good RASM results.

今年，我們讓 2022 年和 2023 年新增產能成熟，創造了良好的 RASM 成果。

We entered Q4 with momentum across the Atlantic as RASM growth was strongest as we exited Q3 at plus 4%.

我們進入第四季時，整個大西洋的勢頭強勁，RASM 成長最為強勁，第三季結束時成長了 4%。

We've gotten pretty good at knowing when and where to grow and just as importantly, known when and where not to grow.

我們非常擅長知道何時何地種植，同樣重要的是，知道何時何地不種植。

While our Asia Pacific network is solidly profitable, Asia RASM was challenged in the quarter as we continue to face China and South Pacific headwinds driven by simply returning to a more numeralized revenue environment.

雖然我們的亞太網路獲利穩健，但亞洲 RASM 在本季面臨挑戰，因為我們繼續面臨中國和南太平洋地區的逆風，而這些阻力只是簡單地回歸到更數位化的收入環境所致。

United expanded Asian capacity by 27% year-over-year and 50% in the last 12 months.

美聯航在亞洲的運能年增了 27%，在過去 12 個月中成長了 50%。

Pivoted capacity across the network remains a focus as we enter Q4.

進入第四季度，整個網路的旋轉容量仍然是一個焦點。

We -- we're in the process of reallocating underperforming narrowbody capacity in our Guam operation to create new revenue pools and connectivity in Tokyo.

我們正在重新分配關島營運中表現不佳的窄體機運力，以在東京創造新的收入池和連通性。

United's plan specific growth will moderate to 7% in Q4 and further again in 2025.

曼聯的計畫具體成長率將在第四季放緩至 7%，並在 2025 年進一步放緩。

We plan to return to a more typical Pacific growth rate once our post-pandemic network is fully restored.

一旦我們的疫情後網路完全恢復，我們計劃恢復到更典型的太平洋成長率。

With stronger year-over-year performance expected across the Atlantic and Pacific in Q4, United is also seeing a much better global year-over-year RASM outlook versus Q3.

由於預計第四季度大西洋和太平洋地區的同比業績將更加強勁，美聯航也看到，與第三季相比，全球 RASM 年比前景好得多。

We remain bullish about the long-term growth prospects of our global long offline.

我們仍然看好我們全球長線下的長期成長前景。

The structural shift in profitability is evident in two of the three international entities at United so far in 2024.

2024 年迄今為止，美聯航三個國際實體中的兩個實體的獲利能力發生了明顯的結構性轉變。

We're optimistic that performance to Latin America will improve in the coming quarters as the region is seeing significantly significant capacity rationalization by low-margin airlines.

我們樂觀地認為，拉丁美洲的業績將在未來幾季有所改善，因為該地區的低利潤航空公司正在大幅調整運能。

United Network Health remained strong.

聯合網路健康依然強勁。

All United hubs and all four entities produce profits in Q3, produce profits year-to-date and produce profits over the last 12 months.

所有美聯航樞紐和所有四個實體均在第三季、年初至今以及過去 12 個月內均產生利潤。

Corporate demand acceleration was nice to see in September across all regions and is expected to continue into Q4.

9 月份，所有地區的企業需求加速成長，預計將持續到第四季。

Contracted corporate revenues were up 13% in September, at 95% of 2019 revenues, which is 13 points higher than July and August.

9月合約企業營收成長13%，佔2019年營收的95%，比7月和8月高13個百分點。

United is centered in the largest business markets as corporate demand expands, we expect a material tailwind.

隨著企業需求的擴大，美聯航以最大的商業市場為中心，我們預計將出現實質的推動力。

Load factor for managed business was down nearly 2.5 points in Q3 still versus 2019, and we look forward to a slow but steady gains as we enter 2025.

與 2019 年相比，第三季託管業務的負載率仍下降了近 2.5 個百分點，我們期待在進入 2025 年時緩慢但穩定的成長。

We've seen 8 of the top 10 biggest post-pandemic corporate revenue booking days since the start of September, including the biggest day in United's history.

自 9 月初以來，我們見證了疫情後 10 大企業收入預訂日中的 8 個，其中包括美聯航史上最大的一天。

RASM and United's premium cabins was up 2% in Q3 and premium cabin RASM performed better than main cabin in all entities during the quarter, while the other into spectrum, basic economy remains an important product with volumes up 21% year over year.

RASM 和美聯航的高級客艙在第三季度增長了2%，本季所有實體中，高級客艙RASM 的表現均優於主艙，而其他艙位，基本經濟艙仍然是重要產品，銷量同比增長21 %。

MileagePlus revenue was up 11%, and our Connected Media business continues to spool up as we invest in technology and seed back screens to create new high-margin revenue streams.

前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 收入成長了 11%，隨著我們投資於科技和種子背屏以創造新的高利潤收入來源，我們的互聯媒體業務繼續蓬勃發展。

Active membership the MileagePlus was up 13% year over year, and holders of our credit card have reached a new penetration record with credit card spend reaching new records up 9% year over year shown flyers are increasingly engaged with all United has to offer.

前程萬裡(MileagePlus) 的活躍會員數量同比增長13%，我們信用卡的持有者已達到新的滲透率記錄，信用卡支出同比增長9% 達到新紀錄，這表明乘客越來越多地參與美聯航提供的所有服務。

I will end with a quick view of the revenue setup for early 2025.

最後，我將快速瀏覽 2025 年初的收入設定。

Much of the revenue challenges we have seen in Q3 were on weak yields for domestic leisure customers who book travel far out.

我們在第三季看到的收入挑戰大部分來自預訂遠方旅行的國內休閒客戶的收益率疲軟。

As we look into Q1, we're selling these very same tickets at yields that are much higher.

當我們研究第一季時，我們正在以更高的收益率出售這些完全相同的門票。

We believe Q1 yield strength will be possible due to the significant schedule changes and business model changes that will continue to be implemented by low-margin airlines.

我們認為，由於低利潤航空公司將繼續實施重大的時刻表變化和業務模式變化，第一季的收益率將有可能走強。

While there's still a bunch of noise in Q4 due to the multiple calendar shifts that make the positive magnitude of the domestic revenue pivot a bit difficult to see for some, the environment is improving rapidly, just as we anticipated.

儘管由於多個日曆變化，第四季度仍然存在大量噪音，使得一些人難以看到國內收入樞軸的積極幅度，但正如我們預期的那樣，環境正在迅速改善。

In addition to the positive yield -- leisure yields we expect in Q1, we're clearly seeing an acceleration of return to office policies, which are driving corporate traffic revenue growth at an accelerated level and creating a great setup for 2025.

除了我們預期第一季的休閒收益為正收益之外，我們還清楚地看到重返辦公室政策的加速，這正在推動企業流量收入加速成長，並為 2025 年創造了良好的基礎。

And further, as I said earlier, Asia unit revenues have clearly pivoted in Q4.

此外，正如我之前所說，亞洲單位收入在第四季度明顯發生了變化。

Thanks to the entire team for a job well done.

感謝整個團隊的出色工作。

With that, I'll turn it over to Mike to discuss our financial results.

接下來，我會將其交給麥克討論我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Andrew, and thank you to the United team for another solid quarter.

謝謝安德魯，也感謝曼聯又一個穩定的季度。

In the third quarter, we delivered a pretax margin of 9.7% and earnings per share of $3.33.

第三季度，我們的稅前利潤率為 9.7%，每股盈餘為 3.33 美元。

Above the high end of our guidance range despite challenges from the CrowdStrike outage and suspension of our flights to Tel Aviv and Aman.

儘管受到 CrowdStrike 中斷以及飛往特拉維夫和阿曼航班暫停的挑戰，但仍高於我們指導範圍的高端。

Revenue trends improved across most geographies as industry capacity rationalized, all while we saw a relief in fuel prices.

隨著產業產能合理化，大多數地區的收入趨勢有所改善，同時我們看到燃料價格下降。

Customers continue to choose United as we invest in our hard product, our people and a resilient operation.

客戶繼續選擇美聯航，因為我們投資於我們的硬產品、員工和彈性營運。

Turning to costs in the quarter.

轉向本季的成本。

CASM ex was up 6.5% on 4.1% capacity growth versus the third quarter of last year.

CASM ex 年成長 6.5%，運力較去年第三季成長 4.1%。

We expected CASM ex to be pressured in the quarter with lower capacity growth.

我們預計 CASM ex 在本季將面臨產能成長放緩的壓力。

This was further amplified with an approximately 1 point reduction in capacity from CrowdStrike and suspension of Tel Aviv and Aman.

隨著 CrowdStrike 的容量減少約 1 個百分點以及特拉維夫和 Aman 的暫停，這種情況進一步放大。

As we look to the fourth quarter, we expect some unit cost improvement as labor headwinds moderate and our capacity growth steps back up.

展望第四季度，隨著勞動力逆風緩和以及我們的產能成長回升，我們預計單位成本將會改善。

We expect that our costs will remain pressured from previous capacity reductions in both our domestic and Atlantic schedules and delivery delays from Airbus and Boeing.

我們預計，我們的成本仍將因先前國內和大西洋航線的運力削減以及空中巴士和波音的交付延誤而受到壓力。

As we look ahead to CASM ex in 2025, we expect to see tailwinds from better utilization and firmer capacity plans, assuming OEM delivery delays moderate.

當我們展望 2025 年的 CASM ex 時，假設 OEM 交付延遲適度，我們預計將看到更好的利用率和更堅定的產能計劃帶來的推動力。

We expect to continue to see pressure from our labor agreements of around 2 to 3 points, which should be an industry headwind as well.

我們預計勞資協議將繼續帶來約 2 至 3 個百分點的壓力，這也應該成為業界的阻力。

For the fourth quarter, we expect earnings per share to be between $2.50 and $3.

我們預計第四季每股收益將在 2.50 美元至 3 美元之間。

Turning to the fleet.

轉向艦隊。

In the quarter, we took delivery of 17 Boeing MAX aircraft and 3 A321neo aircraft.

本季度，我們接收了 17 架波音 MAX 飛機和 3 架 A321neo 飛機。

In the fourth quarter, we expect to take delivery of 19 narrow-body aircraft and 3 wide-body aircraft.

第四季度，我們預計將接收19架窄體飛機和3架寬體飛機。

Our estimate accounts for our current assessment of the impact of delays at both Airbus and Boeing.

我們的估計考慮了我們目前對空中巴士和波音延誤影響的評估。

With these deliveries, we now expect full year adjusted capital expenditures to be less than $6.5 billion.

透過這些交付，我們現在預計全年調整後的資本支出將低於 65 億美元。

On capital allocation, our United ex plan is working, and the airline industry is in the midst of a positive transformation.

在資本配置方面，我們的美聯航前計畫正在發揮作用，航空業正處於積極轉型之中。

A decommoditization of customers are choosing United based on the wide selection of products from premium international seats to flexible travel for domestic business travelers and basic economy for our price-sensitive customers.

客戶選擇美聯航的原因是美聯航的產品種類繁多，從高級國際座位到國內商務旅客的靈活旅行，以及為價格敏感的客戶提供的基礎經濟艙。

Our investments have solidified a leading position for us in the industry.

我們的投資鞏固了我們在行業中的領先地位。

As our strategy has worked, our relative profitability has improved materially, but our stock hasn't kept up.

由於我們的策略發揮了作用，我們的相對盈利能力大幅提高，但我們的股票卻沒有跟上。

We believe there's tremendous value in our shares and now have the balance sheet and free cash flow to opportunistically repurchase those shares.

我們相信我們的股票具有巨大的價值，現在擁有資產負債表和自由現金流來機會回購這些股票。

Our Board of Directors has approved a $1.5 billion share repurchase program that we intend to execute beginning this quarter and throughout 2025.

我們的董事會已批准一項價值 15 億美元的股票回購計劃，我們打算從本季開始一直到 2025 年執行該計劃。

This program will be funded by free cash flow generation as we expect our profitability to improve.

該計劃將由自由現金流產生提供資金，因為我們預計我們的盈利能力將會提高。

It's imperative that we balance our priorities of investing in the business and consistently returning value to our shareholders while also deleveraging.

我們必須在業務投資和持續為股東回報價值的優先事項之間取得平衡，同時也要去槓桿化。

Our current net leverage is 2.7 times, and we are targeting below 2 times in the next few years.

我們目前的淨槓桿率為2.7倍，未來幾年我們的目標是低於2倍。

In parallel with this new buyback authorization, I'm happy to share that we've already repurchased approximately $82 million of shares that were issued when a portion of the warrants originally granted to the US Treasury under the Cares Act and payroll support program were exercised during the quarter.

在這項新的回購授權的同時，我很高興地告訴大家，我們已經回購了大約8200 萬美元的股票，這些股票是在行使最初根據《關懷法案》和工資支持計劃授予美國財政部的部分認股權證時發行的。

The repurchase of just over 2 million shares fully offset the dilution associated with these exercise warrants.

回購略多於 200 萬股股票完全抵銷了與這些行使認股權證相關的稀釋。

The shares were purchased at an average price of $39.99. We are delivering on our financial commitments and expect to deliver on our EPS guidance for the second year in a row.

這些股票的平均價格為 39.99 美元。我們正在兌現我們的財務承諾，並預計連續第二年兌現我們的每股盈餘指引。

We are greatly encouraged by our third quarter performance and the progress we've made to positively differentiate our product increase TRASM, improve our balance sheet and now return cash to shareholders.

我們對第三季的業績以及我們在積極區分我們的產品增加 TRASM、改善我們的資產負債表以及現在向股東返還現金方面所取得的進展感到非常鼓舞。

The future at United Airlines is incredibly bright.

聯合航空的未來非常光明。

With that, I'll pass it over to Kristina to start the Q&A.

這樣，我將把它交給克里斯蒂娜來開始問答。

We'll now take questions from the analyst community.

我們現在將回答分析師群體的問題。

Please limit yourself to one question and if needed, one follow-up question.

請限制自己提出一個問題，如果需要，請提出一個後續問題。

Krista, please describe the procedure to ask a question.

Krista，請描述提問的程序。

(Operator Instructions) Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

（操作員說明）Conor Cunningham，Melius Research。

A question I get pretty often from investors is just how you plan to capitalize on an evolving industry backdrop in '25.

我經常從投資者那裡得到的一個問題是，你們計劃如何利用 25 年不斷變化的行業背景。

Many of your competitors are making significant changes to the network and product.

您的許多競爭對手正在對網路和產品進行重大改變。

When you take a step back, where do you see the biggest opportunity in the U.S. domestic market next year?

退一步來說，您認為明年美國國內市場最大的機會在哪裡？

I'll try to take it.

我會嘗試接受它。

We're focused on United and our outlook and continuing to develop the United next Plan.

我們專注於美聯航和我們的前景，並繼續制定美聯航的下一步計劃。

And so there's a lot of opportunity.

所以有很多機會。

I think, first of all, we're going to continue to build connectivity in our Mid-Con hubs.

我認為，首先，我們將繼續在我們的中型中心建立連接。

We've had that as one of our north stars for a long time, and we'll continue to do that.

長期以來，我們一直將其視為我們的北極星之一，我們將繼續這樣做。

But we're also going to continue to invest in the customer to make our product one that they choose more and more often.

但我們也將繼續對客戶進行投資，使我們的產品成為他們越來越頻繁選擇的產品。

And we continue to see market share gains related to that.

我們繼續看到與此相關的市場份額的成長。

And then I think the last point I would say is particularly from a corporate point of view, we see corporate traffic accelerating that's United to bread and butter.

然後我認為我要說的最後一點特別是從企業的角度來看，我們看到企業流量正在加速，這是聯合的麵包和黃油。

We've been waiting for that to happen for a while.

我們等待這件事發生已經有一段時間了。

It's particularly important in Q1, and we think it's going to happen in Q1, and that creates a great set up for us.

這在第一季尤其重要，我們認為這將在第一季發生，這為我們創造了一個很好的設置。

So we're going to stay focused on building products that customers want to buy.

因此，我們將繼續專注於打造客戶想要購買的產品。

We're going to stay focused on building our high-yield share as we go forward and building connectivity and, of course, building our global network, which has done incredibly well over the last few years.

在我們前進的過程中，我們將繼續專注於建立我們的高收益份額，並建立連通性，當然還有建立我們的全球網絡，在過去幾年中表現得非常好。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then maybe just sticking with or going back to United Next.

然後也許只是堅持或回到 United Next。

When you first laid that plan out in 2021, obviously, a lot has changed you're forecasting double-digit pretax margin by 2026.

當您在 2021 年首次製定該計劃時，顯然發生了很多變化，您預計到 2026 年稅前利潤率將達到兩位數。

I was just curious if you could update us on your thought process and how you get to that double-digit margin.

我只是好奇您能否向我們介紹您的最新思維過程以及如何實現兩位數的利潤。

You've obviously done a very good job of pivoting and driving margins relative to others.

與其他公司相比，您顯然在調整和提高利潤方面做得非常好。

But just any thoughts there would be helpful.

但任何想法都會有幫助。

Sure.

當然。

For the past couple of years, we've been describing an industry evolution that we're confident will lead to higher margins.

在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在描述產業的演變，我們相信這將帶來更高的利潤。

We anticipated that we'd reach an inflection point that would kick off a multiyear run that looked a lot like the 2012 to 2014 for airline earnings and investors.

我們預計，我們將達到一個拐點，開啟多年的運行，對於航空公司的盈利和投資者來說，這看起來很像 2012 年至 2014 年。

For some history, in 2011, each of Delta, United and Southwest had pretax margins between 3% and 4%.

從歷史上看，2011 年，達美航空、聯合航空和西南航空的稅前利潤率均在 3% 至 4% 之間。

Southwest committed to low growth until they roll to hit a certain target, and they lived up to that commitment for the next three years. three years later, their margins have expanded by 9 points.

西南航空承諾保持低成長，直到達到某個目標，並且他們在未來三年兌現了這一承諾。三年後，他們的利潤率擴大了 9 個百分點。

So the network carriers had expanded by an average of about 8 points.

因此網路營運商平均擴展了約8個點。

That all happened even while the ULCCs were growing 15% to 20% per year.

即使 ULCC 每年增長 15% 至 20%，這一切仍然發生。

Fast forward to today, Southwest and one other airline -- one of the large airlines start with margins that are actually even lower in absolute than they were in 2011 and relative margins that are significantly worse than they were in 2011.

快進到今天，西南航空和另一家航空公司（其中一家大型航空公司）的絕對利潤率實際上比 2011 年還要低，相對利潤率也比 2011 年明顯更差。

In response, Southwest has once again made a long-term capacity commitment at the same time that the ULCC may not even survive much less grow 15% to 20%.

對此，西南航空再次做出了長期產能承諾，同時ULCC甚至可能無法生存，更不用說成長15%至20%了。

And while we've been predicting this scenario would happen, it's no longer theoretical.

雖然我們一直預測這種情況會發生，但它不再是理論上的。

It happened in mid-August.

事情發生在八月中旬。

The only question now is how much margins expand compared to what happened in the 2012 to 2014 time period.

現在唯一的問題是，與 2012 年至 2014 年期間相比，利潤率擴大了多少。

I suppose you can have a reasonable debate about whether it will be the same 8 to 9 points or something less -- but regardless, there's likely going to be a meaningful expansion of margins in each of the next three years.

我想你可以就是否是相同的 8 到 9 個點還是更少進行合理的辯論 - 但無論如何，未來三年的利潤率可能會出現有意義的擴張。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧弗農，伯恩斯坦。

I had a question on sort of the international expansion.

我有一個關於國際擴張的問題。

This sounds like a differentiated strategy that sort of leads into the idea of Wanderlust -- can you just talk a little bit about the rationale here and maybe your process for picking, I don't know, nuke Greenland to add to the system versus any other city -- and what kind of impact seasoning some of these newer routes that are kind of undiscovered country may have on results for next year?

這聽起來像是一種差異化的策略，有點導致了「流浪癖」的想法——你能簡單談談這裡的基本原理嗎？系統中，而不是任何其他國家其他城市——這些新航線中的一些未被發現的國家的航線可能會對明年的結果產生什麼樣的影響？

Well, thanks for the question.

嗯，謝謝你的提問。

We spend a lot of time debating how and where we'll grow and this announcement has clearly caught the attention of a lot of people, most importantly, our customers.

我們花了很多時間討論我們將如何以及在哪裡發展，這項公告顯然引起了很多人的注意，最重要的是我們的客戶。

And I think it's a very exciting announcement.

我認為這是一個非常令人興奮的公告。

But the backdrop for the announcement is the fact that United Airlines simply has the best global gateways in the business.

但宣布這項消息的背景是，聯合航空擁有業內最好的全球門戶。

And those global gateways allow us to fly successfully to a broad range of destinations.

這些全球門戶使我們能夠成功飛往眾多目的地。

We heavily fly into our partner hubs, which is the traditional model in our business. but we're also able to do just as well financially outside of our partner hubs.

我們大量飛往合作夥伴中心，這是我們業務的傳統模式。但我們在合作中心之外的財務狀況也同樣出色。

And so we look across the globe, we look for new destinations.

因此，我們放眼全球，尋找新的目的地。

We look for hot destinations and destinations, most importantly, we can make money in.

我們尋找熱門目的地和目的地，最重要的是我們能在其中賺錢。

We have a really good track record on this, very little of what we've added over the last few years we have canceled.

我們在這方面有著非常好的記錄，過去幾年我們取消的添加內容很少。

And so as we look forward, we look for those new destinations.

因此，當我們展望未來時，我們會尋找那些新的目的地。

And at the end of the day, Greenland has got a lot of attention, but it is only two 737s per week.

歸根結底，格陵蘭島受到了很多關注，但每週只有兩架 737。

So its impact on our system will be small.

所以它對我們系統的影響會很小。

But its impact on United, our brand and our customer profile and sign-up for Miles will be great.

但它對美聯航、我們的品牌、客戶資料以及里程註冊的影響將是巨大的。

And there is so much more possible on this front than even I thought it was possible five or six years ago.

這方面的可能性比我五、六年前想像的多很多。

As the United next Plan builds the connectivity as our global hubs are just in these great cities with high volumes of cargo, high volumes of leisure traffic and most importantly, high volumes of business traffic we just have a lot to unlock out there.

隨著美聯航未來計畫建立連結性，因為我們的全球樞紐就位於這些擁有大量貨物、大量休閒交通、最重要的是大量商務交通的大城市，我們有很多東西需要釋放。

We'll do it very carefully.

我們會非常仔細地做。

We'll make sure we're growing profitably, but expect more to come on this front.

我們將確保我們的獲利成長，但預計這方面會出現更多變化。

All right.

好的。

And then maybe just as a brief follow-up on the wide-body situation.

然後也許只是對寬體機情況的簡短跟進。

Boeing's announced they're going to have another delay on the 777 acts -- how do you think that's going to affect sort of supply demand as you're looking out the next couple of years, the delays in that production platform for the next-generation wide-body?

波音公司宣布，他們將再次推遲 777 的生產——當你展望未來幾年時，你認為這將如何影響供應需求，以及未來幾年生產平台的推遲——一代寬體機？

So we've talked about this many times since -- even in the middle of the pandemic, we thought there is a structural shift in global capacity, a lot of A380s and other wide bodies are grounded and many of those aircraft remain grounded, although airlines are bringing some back.

因此，我們已經多次討論過這個問題，即使在疫情期間，我們也認為全球產能發生了結構性轉變，許多 A380 和其他寬體客機已停飛，其中許多飛機仍處於停飛狀態，儘管航空公司正在帶一些回來。

There's no doubt about that.

毫無疑問。

The fact is that the production lines for wide-body aircraft probably we will not keep up with demand over the next three to five years based on everything we see.

事實上，根據我們所看到的一切，寬體飛機的生產線可能無法滿足未來三到五年的需求。

And that, in turn, I think, creates a better setup for the global long-haul network.

我認為，這反過來又為全球長途網路創造了更好的設定。

We obviously remain bullish on it based on our announcement last week and we'll do it prudently, but we think the setup is pretty good and the 777X appears to be delayed yet again.

根據我們上週的公告，我們顯然仍然看好它，並且我們會謹慎行事，但我們認為設置相當不錯，而且 777X 似乎再次被推遲。

David, and this is Mike.

大衛，這是麥克。

I'll just pile on.

我就繼續堆吧

We're more focused on the 787 delays as you might expect us to be.

正如您所料，我們更關注 787 的延誤。

And we're rooting for Boeing, and they are certainly making some smart decisions.

我們支持波音公司，他們確實做出了一些明智的決定。

We would applaud their at least the rumor decision to raise some equity in the capital markets to stabilize the business.

我們至少對他們在資本市場籌集一些股權以穩定業務的傳聞決定表示讚賞。

But as we see delays on the 787s, we would expect that there's a bias downward in CapEx if those delivery delays continue.

但正如我們看到 787 飛機出現延誤一樣，如果這些交付延誤持續下去，我們預計資本支出會下降。

Andrew Didora, Bank of America.

安德魯·迪多拉，美國銀行。

Kind of piggybacking off of that last question, maybe Scott or Mike, I mean, bigger picture, you see as the implications across your company from the Boeing strike?

有點像最後一個問題，也許是斯科特或麥克，我的意思是，從更大的角度來看，您認為波音罷工對整個公司有何影響？

And then Mike, just kind of following up on your last answer.

然後麥克，只是跟進你最後的答案。

Like -- is it fair -- is it reasonable to expect something in the lower end of your $7 billion to $9 billion CapEx range next year just given everything we know from a production perspective.

考慮到我們從生產角度所知道的一切，明年 70 億至 90 億美元資本支出範圍的低端預期是否合理？

Well, I'll start big picture, and then let Mike give you the CapEx answers.

好吧，我將從大局開始，然後讓 Mike 為您提供資本支出答案。

What I care about with Boeing is the long term.

我對波音公司關心的是長期發展。

We're trying to build the best airline in the history of Aviation for the long term, and I'm very focused on the long term.

從長遠來看，我們正在努力打造航空史上最好的航空公司，我非常注重長期發展。

And I am actually encouraged with Boeing.

事實上，我對波音公司感到鼓舞。

Mike already referenced it, but the challenge at Boeing to my view, for decades been that the cultural challenge where they focused on short-term profitability and the short-term stock price at the expense of what made Boeing great, which is building great products, great engineering, great quality, reliability, safety that you could count on.

麥克已經提到過這一點，但在我看來，幾十年來波音面臨的挑戰是文化挑戰，他們專注於短期盈利能力和短期股價，而犧牲了波音的偉大之處，那就是打造偉大的產品、優秀的工程、卓越的品質、可靠性、安全性，值得您信賴。

And I think Kelly or Berg is pivoting the company back to their roots.

我認為凱利或伯格正在讓公司回歸本源。

I think all the employees of Boeing will rally around that. to me, the biggest news in the last couple of decades, really at Boeing is the willingness -- reported willingness to sell equity that's making the right long-term decision regardless of what the Street thinks about it in the short term.

我認為波音公司的所有員工都會圍繞著這一點團結起來。對我來說，過去幾十年來最大的新聞，對波音來說，真正是願意——據報道願意出售股權，無論華爾街短期內如何看待，這都是做出正確的長期決定。

So I paused them for doing that as a long-term customer.

所以我阻止了他們作為長期客戶這樣做。

It's the right thing to do. for the shareholders long term also.

這是正確的做法。對於股東來說也是長期的。

And so I'm encouraged with the changes that they're making.

因此，我對他們所做的改變感到鼓舞。

The strike is in a lot of ways, a cultural legacy of the same issues that have happened over the past couple of decades.

從很多方面來說，這次罷工都是過去幾十年來發生的相同問題的文化遺產。

It's tough, but they will get through it.

這很艱難，但他們會度過難關。

I'm confident they will.

我相信他們會的。

I certain that all of the folks that are out on the picket line now, along with the management team all share a desire to make Boeing great and be part of a great company that's one of the most important companies in the world.

我確信現在所有參與糾察線的人以及管理團隊都渴望讓波音變得偉大，並成為世界上最重要的公司之一的偉大公司的一部分。

And so they'll ultimately work through this -- it's going to be -- we're going to have new airplanes in the near term than we would have been hoping for, but our eye is focused on the long term.

因此，他們最終將解決這個問題——這將是——我們將在短期內擁有超出我們預期的新飛機，但我們的目光著眼於長期。

I wanted to get through it and build a company that can work for the long term.

我想度過難關，建立一家能夠長期成長的公司。

And then I think we're -- have a really good set.

然後我認為我們有一套非常好的組合。

Angie, let me pile on, and let me be clear.

安吉，讓我繼續說，讓我說清楚。

The aircraft we have on order with Boeing and Airbus based on the profitability that you're seeing in our results for the third quarter based off our forward expectation for profitability.

我們向波音和空中巴士訂購的飛機是基於您在第三季度業績中看到的盈利能力，基於我們對盈利能力的前瞻性預期。

We want those aircraft, and we want them as soon as Boeing can complete them and deliver them.

我們想要這些飛機，只要波音公司能夠完成並交付它們，我們就想要它們。

That said, pragmatically, as these delays are unlikely to be resolved quickly, we would expect down -- we do have a downward bias to CapEx.

也就是說，務實地說，由於這些延遲不太可能很快得到解決，我們預計資本支出會下降——我們確實對資本支出有向下的偏見。

I expect it to stay within that range, and we'll give more precise guidance on the January call when we normally would.

我預計它將保持在這個範圍內，我們將像往常一樣在一月份的電話會議上給出更準確的指導。

But you're correct to assume downward bias based on production delays.

但您基於生產延遲假設的向下偏差是正確的。

James Baker, JPMorgan.

詹姆斯貝克，摩根大通。

So a couple for Andrew.

所以安德魯是一對。

Looking back at this past summer, the elevated capacity, the saved pressure on yields.

回顧去年夏天，產能增加，產量壓力減輕。

I'm simply static, I guess, for lack of a better term, that several of your competitors throw as much capacity at the peak as they could, particularly airlines that are struggling for even canes taste of profitability.

我想，由於缺乏更好的術語，我只是靜態地認為，你的一些競爭對手在高峰期投入了盡可能多的運力，尤其是那些正在為盈利能力而苦苦掙扎的航空公司。

I know a lot can change between now and next summer but should not we assume that maybe this is the new normal.

我知道從現在到明年夏天可能會發生很多變化，但我們不應該認為這可能是新常態。

So as LMAs continue to struggle, they'll just throw as much capacity at the peaks.

因此，當 LMA 繼續陷入困境時，他們只會在高峰時投入盡可能多的容量。

So those peaks become a little bit softer, off-peaks become firmer, more than the seasonal trends that we've seen in the past?

那麼，與我們過去看到的季節性趨勢相比，這些高峰變得更加柔和，非高峰變得更加堅挺？

Any thoughts on that?

對此有什麼想法嗎？

I didn't know you're so sympathetic, Jamie.

我不知道你這麼有同情心，傑米。

Well, I just kind of get their logic.

好吧，我只是明白他們的邏輯。

I mean, it obviously didn't help.

我的意思是，這顯然沒有幫助。

But no, I'm not claiming to be a chair or anything.

但不，我並不是自稱是一張椅子或任何東西。

Well, look, I'm not an expert on their business model other than their business models are clearly struggling and they are changing them as rapidly as they can.

好吧，聽著，我不是他們商業模式的專家，除了他們的商業模式顯然正在苦苦掙扎，而且他們正在盡快改變它們。

However, it is hard to change the -- it's hard to change your spots that quickly.

然而，很難改變——很難那麼快地改變你的位置。

Of course, they did exactly what you described.

當然，他們確實按照你所描述的做了。

I think I went through the stages of grief on what you do in execution a couple of quarters ago, quarters ago, and I think that is one of the stages of grief.

我想我在幾個季度前、幾個季度前經歷了你在執行過程中所做的悲傷階段，我認為這是悲傷的階段之一。

You wind up at an airline that has this complete imbalance of utilization where you have unproductive uses for a majority of our aircraft for six or seven months per year.

你最終會發現一家航空公司的使用率完全不平衡，我們的大部分飛機每年有六到七個月處於非生產性使用。

And I'm not sure that financial model works either.

我也不確定這種財務模式是否有效。

We'll have to wait and see.

我們得拭目以待。

The point of all that is there's an incredible amount of unprofitable capacity in the United States marketplace.

最重要的是，美國市場上存在大量無法獲利的產能。

We've seen that exiting at a rapid pace starting in mid-August, that continues into next year.

我們看到從八月中旬開始快速退出，並持續到明年。

And my expectation is that we'll continue -- at the same time that international remains strong, that business traffic, which is our bread and butter remains strong, and we can march towards higher margins, as Scott talked about, as this evolution occur.

我的期望是，我們將繼續- 同時，國際市場仍然強勁，作為我們賴以生存的麵包和黃油的商業流量仍然強勁，正如斯科特所說，隨著這種演變的發生，我們可以邁向更高的利潤率。

So I remain bullish that where we are right now is only getting better and the changes we've seen so far only actually the tip of the iceberg is the models just don't work in that way in my mind that you can work for six months and not the other six months.

因此，我仍然樂觀地認為，我們現在的情況只會變得更好，到目前為止我們所看到的變化實際上只是冰山一角，在我看來，這些模型並不能以那種方式工作，你可以為六個人工作個月而不是其他六個月。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then on the 20 -- I think you said 21% rise in basic economy volumes.

然後在 20 號——我想你說基本經濟總量增加了 21%。

So my ability to track basic economy supply is obviously limited.

所以我追蹤基礎經濟供給的能力顯然是有限的。

I'm assuming you track it internally.

我假設你在內部跟踪它。

Can you comment on how your basic economy inventory compares with that of Delta and American.

您能評論一下你們的基礎經濟艙庫存與達美航空和美國航空的庫存相比如何嗎？

And with growth of this magnitude, I mean, is it United's intent to essentially become the largest supplier of discount capacity domestically down the road, although by some measures perhaps that's already been achieved?

我的意思是，隨著如此規模的成長，美聯航是否有意成為未來國內最大的折扣運力供應商，儘管透過某些措施也許已經實現了這一目標？

Well, look, our intent is to expand our margins, to be really clear.

嗯，看，我們的目的是擴大我們的利潤，非常明確。

Our intent is to offer a full range of products to customers, particularly in our hubs that want everything from basic to Polaris.

我們的目的是為客戶提供全系列產品，特別是在我們的樞紐中心，他們想要從基本款到北極星的一切產品。

And we will pivot the amount of capacity we offer in all those categories. based on expanding our margins.

我們將調整我們在所有這些類別中提供的產能數量。基於擴大我們的利潤。

But we have come to the firm conclusion that offer basic and offered in a substantial amount of volume is good to United, is profitable for United and is bad for our competitors.

但我們得出了堅定的結論，即基本報價和大量報價對曼聯有利，對曼聯有利，但對我們的競爭對手不利。

And so we are going to continue to do what's good for United.

因此，我們將繼續做對曼聯有利的事情。

It expanded.

它擴大了。

I think it's in the neighborhood of 15% to 16% of our domestic passenger volumes right now.

我認為目前它占我們國內客運量的 15% 到 16% 左右。

As we grow our gauge with lower marginal costs, I think it could go higher as we go forward.

隨著我們以較低的邊際成本擴大我們的規模，我認為隨著我們的前進，它可能會更高。

But again, we'll pivot and do what's right for the bottom line at the end of the day.

但同樣，我們將在一天結束時調整並採取正確的措施來實現盈利。

But I would say that the experiment with basic, which was an experiment seven, eight, or nine years ago, is a solid home run and has changed the business dramatically to our benefit.

但我想說，七、八、九年前的實驗，基本的實驗是一次堅實的本壘打，它極大地改變了業務，使我們受益。

Tom Fitzgerald, TD Cowen.

湯姆·菲茨杰拉德，TD·考恩。

Would you help us understand the sizing of the contribution from MileagePlus and Connective Media on margin expansion in 2025?

您能否幫助我們了解前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 和 Connective Media 對 2025 年利潤擴張的貢獻大小？

I don't think we're prepared to do that today.

我認為我們今天還沒有準備好這樣做。

MileagePlus is a jewel in our business and has not been focused on enough over the last few years.

前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 是我們業務中的一顆明珠，但過去幾年並未得到足夠重視。

And we took a different path about a year ago when we hired Richard Nunn.

大約一年前，當我們聘請理查德·納恩時，我們走了一條不同的道路。

We took a different path as we invest in the technology there.

當我們投資那裡的技術時，我們採取了不同的道路。

That investment in technology is going to do a lot of things for our business first and foremost, it's going to allow us to personalize service to our customers in a way that I don't think any airline has done.

對科技的投資首先將為我們的業務帶來許多好處，它將使我們能夠以我認為任何航空公司都沒有做過的方式為客戶提供個人化服務。

Of course, Starlink is a core part of that, which obviously was just recently announced -- so we'll have a lot more to say on this, but it is going to be material.

當然，星鍊是其中的核心部分，顯然它是最近才宣布的——所以我們對此還有很多話要說，但這將是實質性的。

It's going to spool up starting next year, but I'm going to have to -- I'm not going to give you the details today on that, but it's pretty substantial.

它將從明年開始加速，但我必須——我今天不會向你們提供這方面的細節，但它是相當重要的。

Tom, I'm going to give you a little bit of detail.

湯姆，我要告訴你一些細節。

And that is that in '25, this is an investment phase.

那就是在25年，這是一個投資階段。

We're going to -- it's going to not be losing money.

我們不會虧損。

We'll make a little bit of money on -- but this really starts to accelerate in '26 and beyond.

我們會賺一點錢——但這在 26 年及以後才真正開始加速。

So as you think about modeling '25 though, we've got a ton of momentum in the core business.

因此，當您考慮 25 世紀的建模時，我們在核心業務方面擁有巨大的動力。

I wouldn't layer a bunch of MileagePlus connected revenue on in 2025.

我不會在 2025 年增加大量前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 關聯收入。

I do expect we'll be giving more and more disclosure so you can model this on your own.

我確實希望我們會提供越來越多的披露，以便您可以自己建模。

You don't have that information at this time, but I'm committed to getting you more information to allow you to model it for yourself.

您目前沒有這些信息，但我致力於為您提供更多信息，以便您自己進行建模。

And I'll just I was going to bring up one other point.

我只是想提出另一點。

The program is doing incredibly well.

該計劃進展得非常好。

And again, we don't talk about it enough, and we should.

再說一遍，我們對此討論得還不夠，但我們應該討論。

But revenue from the premier population in the quarter was up 9%, and that drove the majority of the revenue growth at the airline.

但本季來自尊貴人群的收入成長了 9%，這推動了該航空公司大部分的收入成長。

And so our premier members are heavily engaged with us as I said earlier, they hold the credit card in record numbers and they're spending record amounts on their credit card.

因此，正如我之前所說，我們的高級會員與我們密切合作，他們持有的信用卡數量創下了紀錄，並且他們在信用卡上的消費金額也創下了紀錄。

But the fact that the premier population base is doing that much more revenue on a base that is actually close to flat because we've make sure that we can deliver benefits to all of our peer members, and we held the level of premium members flat.

但事實上，主要人口基數的收入實際上接近持平，因為我們確保我們能夠為所有同行會員帶來福利，並且我們保持高級會員的水平持平。

The program is doing incredibly well.

該計劃進展得非常好。

That's all really helpful.

這一切都非常有幫助。

Would you mind just elaborate a little bit on what the customer reaction to Connective has been?

您介意詳細說明一下客戶對 Connective 的反應嗎？

And then maybe some of the early reactions on brands that are advertising on the platform.

然後也許是在該平台上做廣告的品牌的一些早期反應。

I think our activities to date have been rather small.

我認為迄今為止我們的活動規模相當小。

There's been no customer reaction that I could speak of.

我沒有提到任何客戶的反應。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫研究。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So when I look at third quarter, CASM X is up about six RASMs down about one.

因此，當我查看第三季時，CASM X 上升了約 6 個 RASM，下降了約 1 個。

When do you think we see an inflection with RASM up more than CASM?

您認為我們什麼時候會看到 RASM 的變化比 CASM 的變化更大？

I don't think it's fourth quarter, but if you have any color on Q4.

我不認為這是第四季度，但如果你對第四季有什麼看法的話。

And ultimately, I guess, do you have confidence that we see that in '25 with RASM up more than CASM.

最後，我想，您是否有信心我們在 25 年看到 RASM 的成長超過 CASM？

And Scott, let me answer that simply.

史考特，讓我簡單地回答這個問題。

In '25, we would expect that inflection.

在 25 年，我們預計會出現這種變化。

We're not going to give you guidance on quarter-by-quarter at this time as we traditionally wouldn't, but we absolutely expect that inflection in the calendar year 2025.

我們目前不會以傳統方式向您提供季度指導，但我們絕對預計 2025 年會出現這種變化。

I shared in my prepared remarks the kind of some pacing of CASM-ex, but let me repeat for clarity.

我在準備好的演講中分享了 CASM-ex 的一些節奏，但為了清楚起見，讓我重複一遍。

Q3, I expect will be the peak for CASM-ex.

第三季度，我預計將是 CASM-ex 的頂峰。

We expect CASM-ex to decline into the fourth quarter and to decline further into 2025.

我們預計 CASM-ex 將在第四季度下降，並在 2025 年進一步下降。

And we're going to work aggressively to cut all the costs that we should to run an efficient operation.

我們將積極努力削減高效營運所需的所有成本。

And so I'm committed to that personally and the team is working hard to make sure we run a very, very efficient operation.

因此，我個人致力於此，團隊正在努力確保我們的營運非常非常有效率。

At the same time, we're going to continue to invest in the customer because we're not focused on CASM-ex as a metric at United.

同時，我們將繼續對客戶進行投資，因為我們並未將 CASM-ex 作為美聯航的衡量標準。

We're focused on driving profitability.

我們專注於提高盈利能力。

And through no excuses philosophy, we've been really good at delivering on bottom line earnings per share growth, and we're committed to continuing to do that, and we have the right balance of cutting the cutting the costs that are around efficiency but adding the costs that are driving customers to increasingly choose United.

透過沒有藉口的理念，我們一直非常擅長實現每股收益的成長，我們致力於繼續這樣做，並且我們在削減圍繞效率的成本方面取得了適當的平衡，但加上成本，促使客戶越來越多地選擇美聯航。

Helpful.

有幫助。

And just a follow-up, maybe just some directional color on your RASM expectations for Q4, positive, negative, flat and then some of the differences in the regions would be helpful.

只是後續行動，也許只是您對第四季度 RASM 預期的一些方向性顏色，積極、消極、持平，然後各地區的一些差異會有所幫助。

Well, I want to answer that question, but I will give you another hint.

好吧，我想回答這個問題，但我會給你另一個提示。

So January -- and I'm going to talk about Q1 because I can't.

所以一月——我要談第一季度，因為我不能。

January is currently 77 days from the start of the month and 107 days from the end of the month.

目前，一月距離月初還有 77 天，距離月底還有 107 天。

At this same point, domestic yields were down 9% in July, down 2% in September and up 3% in January.

同時，7 月國內收益率下降 9%，9 月下降 2%，1 月上升 3%。

And so the yield environment is just looking good.

因此，良率環境看起來不錯。

We're only booked to a small percentage of our booking curve for January.

我們一月份的預訂量只佔預訂曲線的一小部分。

But I just want to say that Q1 is shaping up well as the pricing environment looks better capacity is, obviously, different across the industry and business traffic continues to rebound.

但我只想說，第一季情況良好，定價環境看起來更好，顯然，整個產業的產能有所不同，業務流量持續反彈。

Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

杜安‧芬尼格沃斯 (Duane Pfennigwerth)，Evercore ISI。

Domestically, are there any regions that stick out in terms of recovery, specifically as it relates to corporate, are you seeing any signs of recovery in lagging West Coast markets like San Francisco?

在國內，是否有任何地區在復甦方面表現突出，特別是在企業方面，您是否看到像舊金山這樣落後的西海岸市場有任何復甦的跡象？

It would be the opposite.

情況恰恰相反。

So the coastal hubs are stronger than the interior hubs. -- in the corporate bucket, professional services, financial services and tech are growing fastest, where energy and a few other things are growing slow, but all verticals are growing and corporate traffic looks good, but the coastal hubs are much stronger than the interior hubs at this point.

所以沿海樞紐比內陸樞紐更強。 ——在企業領域，專業服務、金融服務和科技成長最快，能源和其他一些產業成長緩慢，但所有垂直產業都在成長，企業流量看起來不錯，但沿海樞紐比內陸樞紐強得多此時的樞紐。

Great.

偉大的。

And then Mike touched on it, and I think it came up in a couple of questions, but just contrasting the setup on the kind of step-up in growth in 2025 or the step up in CapEx in 2025 versus prior years where it was a little bit of a placeholder given OEM constraints.

然後麥克談到了這個問題，我認為它出現在幾個問題中，但只是將 2025 年增長的加速或 2025 年資本支出的加速與前幾年的設置進行對比。位符。

Does the setup feel different now looking into 2025, I know you recast and derisked some of your deliveries.

展望 2025 年，現在的設定是否感覺有所不同？

But is your confidence higher into 2025 growth or about the same than it was this time last year into 2024.

但您對 2025 年成長的信心是比去年同期更高還是與去年同期持平，直到 2024 年。

Duane, I think you're asking me about CapEx expectations in '25?

Duane，我想您是在問我 25 年的資本支出預期嗎？

CapEx and really growth, just that it was -- in prior years, it was a placeholder at this point in time, given OEM constraints and you have a better view into how those work out than we do on the outside.

資本支出和真正的成長，只是在前幾年，考慮到 OEM 的限制，它在這個時間點上只是一個佔位符，而且你比我們在外部更能了解這些是如何運作的。

I'm just wondering if the confidence is any higher now into your planned growth than it has been in prior years.

我只是想知道現在您對計劃增長的信心是否比前幾年更高。

Let me try to be responsive.

讓我嘗試做出回應。

We've been very clear about a range of CapEx of $7 billion to $9 billion.

我們非常清楚資本支出範圍為 70 億至 90 億美元。

And as we sit here today, given the strike at Boeing, given other delays, we'd expect there to be a downward bias within the range for CapEx in 2025.

當我們今天坐在這裡時，考慮到波音的罷工以及其他延誤，我們預計 2025 年資本支出範圍內將出現下行偏差。

And -- now separately, there's a relationship, but separately, thinking about capacity in 2025.

現在，分開來看，存在著一種關係，但分開考慮 2025 年的容量。

We're not going to give guidance for capacity in '25 at this point.

目前我們不會給出 25 年產能指引。

But you can trust us, you should expect we have earned that trust that we're going to fly the capacity to maximize profitability for United.

但您可以相信我們，您應該期望我們贏得了這種信任，我們將利用能力最大限度地提高美聯航的盈利能力。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Congrats on a great quarter.

恭喜您度過了一個出色的季度。

We touched on this a little bit, but maybe we could parse it a little bit more on the domestic RASM down 0.8% in Q3 from 1.9% in Q2.

我們稍微談到了這一點，但也許我們可以對國內 RASM 進行更多解析，國內 RASM 從第二季的 1.9% 下降到第三季的 0.8%。

It doesn't seem like much, but Andrew, I think you just gave a little bit of color on how July was and how August trended.

看起來似乎不多，但是安德魯，我想你只是對七月的情況和八月的趨勢做了一些說明。

It seems a much bigger step improvement.

這似乎是一個更大的進步。

So maybe can you talk about what drove that?

那麼也許您能談談是什麼推動了這一點嗎？

Was it the -- how much was capacity?

容量是多少？

How much was corporate?

公司的多少錢？

How much was share gain in economy?

經濟份額增加了多少？

Any details you could provide?

您可以提供任何詳細資訊嗎？

I'll try.

我會盡力。

I mean, it was a lot of things.

我的意思是，有很多事情。

I will say that September was dramatically better than July.

我想說九月比七月好得多。

July was clearly the low point for the year in terms of year-over-year RASM.

就 RASM 同比而言，7 月顯然是今年的最低點。

We saw gains really in all the entities, but September, again, was much better.

我們確實看到了所有實體的成長，但 9 月的情況又好得多。

we expect Pacific market to also improve as we head into Q4.

我們預計，進入第四季度，太平洋市場也會有所改善。

Business traffic was up, I think, about 6% in the whole quarter, but it was up 13% in September to give you an idea of the spool up.

我認為整個季度的業務流量成長了 6% 左右，但 9 月成長了 13%，讓您對成長有一個大致的了解。

So we exited the quarter with some really, I think, much better performance -- and we were hopeful that, that performance translates into good quality earnings in Q4 and beyond.

因此，我們在本季結束時取得了一些真正更好的業績，我認為，我們希望這種業績能夠轉化為第四季度及以後的優質收益。

Hopefully, that does that answer your question?

希望這能回答您的問題嗎？

A little bit.

一點點。

Maybe I could follow up on the Q1 comments that you made with the bookings being so strong, but only minimally booked.

也許我可以跟進您在第一季的評論，預訂量非常大，但預訂量很少。

So how do we think about what drove that strength into Q1 and how you're seeing that?

那麼我們如何看待是什麼推動了第一季的強勁勢頭以及您如何看待這一點？

Is it -- like where is that trend coming from?

這種趨勢是從哪裡來的？

Is it different than what you saw in the Q3 September performance?

這與您在 9 月第三季的表現中看到的有什麼不同嗎？

I don't have it by geography, but what we are seeing is that there's just a much better pricing environment for leisure yields that look very early in the booking curve.

我沒有從地理角度來看，但我們看到的是，在預訂曲線的早期階段，休閒收益有一個更好的定價環境。

And we attribute that to changes in capacity, the elimination of unprofitable capacity, better business bookings, although very slim at this point, and changes the business models of the low-margin airlines.

我們將其歸因於運能的變化、無利可圖運力的消除、更好的商務預訂（儘管目前還很小），並改變了低利潤航空公司的商業模式。

All of these factors are leading to what we anticipate will be a much stronger environment in 2025 for United Airlines.

我們預計，所有這些因素將在 2025 年為聯合航空帶來更強勁的環境。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

布蘭登·奧格倫斯基，巴克萊銀行。

And congrats on retirement Linda.

祝賀琳達退休。

And congrats to the team on a pretty strong 3Q outcome here with all the headwinds that you had.

祝賀團隊在第三季取得了相當強勁的成果，儘管遇到了所有的阻力。

Mike, I really like to know excuses attitude here, the share repurchases definitely a vote of confidence.

麥克，我真的很想知道這裡的藉口態度，股票回購絕對是一張信任票。

I guess, can you help investors because we understand the CapEx dynamics next year, but longer term, you guys are going to be in this range of $7 billion to $9 billion.

我想，你能幫助投資人嗎，因為我們了解明年的資本支出動態，但從長遠來看，你們的支出將在 70 億到 90 億美元之間。

That is a little elevated compared to others.

與其他人相比，這有點高。

But how integral is that spending and the investments maybe even outside of the aircraft fleet into achieving that double-digit margin target?

但是，為了實現兩位數的利潤率目標，這些支出和投資（甚至可能在飛機機隊之外）有多重要？

Brandon, I appreciate the question.

布蘭登，我很欣賞這個問題。

It's something we think about a lot in the finance department these days at United.

這是我們目前在曼聯財務部門經常思考的問題。

CapEx is elevated that refreshing of the fleet, the growth of the fleet has been absolutely integral though to the United next strategy.

資本支出隨著機隊的更新而提高，機隊的成長對於曼聯的下一步策略來說絕對是不可或缺的。

The gauge increases from the narrow-bodies.

軌距從窄體飛機開始增加。

That's frankly what's driving our ability to provide basic economy, which is creating a competitive dynamic that is just fundamentally reshaping the industry.

坦白說，這推動了我們提供基本經濟的能力，從而創造了一種競爭動力，從根本上重塑了該行業。

So they are intertwined.

所以它們是交織在一起的。

That said, as the strategy progresses and our margins expand, I am focused on free cash flow conversion.

也就是說，隨著策略的進展和我們的利潤率的擴大，我將重點放在自由現金流轉換上。

And in the near term, in the next two or three years, we're focused on a free cash flow conversion target of 50%.

短期內，在未來兩三年內，我們的重點是 50% 的自由現金流轉換目標。

We're not going to manage perfectly in every individual year.

我們不會在每一年都做到完美。

But over the next three years, I would use 50% as a target.

但在接下來的三年裡，我會用50%當目標。

Later in the decade, I am aiming higher, I think, 70% to 75% longer term than that, I think there's opportunity.

在這十年的後期，我的目標更高，我認為，從長遠來看，我認為有機會70%到75%。

But near term, think about 50% and later in the decade, think about a target of 75% for free cash conversion.

但短期內，考慮 50%，在十年後，考慮 75% 的自由現金轉換目標。

Mike, I appreciate that.

麥克，我很感激。

It's actually very helpful.

這實際上非常有幫助。

And that's within the context of that $7 billion to $9 billion outlook on CapEx for the next few years, right?

這還是在未來幾年 70 億至 90 億美元資本支出前景的背景下，對嗎？

$7 billion to $9 billion remains the target for the next few years. and we'll give you an update to that in the future.

70億至90億美元仍然是未來幾年的目標。我們將在未來為您提供最新消息。

But for the next few years, $7 billion to $9 billion remains the target.

但未來幾年，70 億至 90 億美元仍是目標。

And let me say for the third time, that has a downward bias next year.

讓我第三次說，明年會有向下的偏差。

Mike Linenberg, Deutsche Bank.

麥克林伯格，德意志銀行。

And obviously, keeping with your no-excuses mantra, I thought it was interesting that there was nothing in the release as it related to CrowdStrike.

顯然，按照您沒有任何藉口的口號，我認為有趣的是，該版本中沒有任何內容與 CrowdStrike 相關。

I know, Mike, you called out one point of CASM, but at the end of the day, you did cancel, I want to say it was like either 2,500 or 2,600 flights on United and its partners.

我知道，麥克，你提出了 CASM 的一點，但最終你確實取消了，我想說，這就像聯合航空及其合作夥伴的 2,500 或 2,600 個航班。

What was the revenue impact?

對收入有何影響？

Or is it just with your booking tools, your ability to reaccommodate maybe better than others that the revenue hit maybe was not as much as even worth reporting.

或者只是因為您的預訂工具，您重新適應的能力可能比其他人更好，以至於收入受到的影響可能不那麼值得報告。

Mike, Scott and Andrew, if they want to provide some detail, obviously, they can.

麥克、斯科特和安德魯，如果他們想提供一些細節，顯然他們可以。

But healthy businesses, healthy industrials, healthy businesses, they'll make excuses about CrowdStrike.

但健康的企業、健康的工業、健康的企業，他們會為 CrowdStrike 找藉口。

They'll make excuses about weather.

他們會以天氣為藉口。

We build into our guidance, the expectation there will be on active God in a quarter that impacts the business in a negative way.

我們在我們的指導中建立了對活躍的上帝在一個季度對業務產生負面影響的期望。

And if that impact ends up not being so large, then we can be coming at the high end or beat our guidance.

如果這種影響最終不是那麼大，那麼我們可能會達到高端或超越我們的指導。

If you have a series of events in a quarter or a massive event, then of course, you're not always going to hit your guidance.

如果您在一個季度內有一系列活動或大型活動，那麼當然，您並不總是會達到您的指導。

But I think it's just a basic setting of targets in a way that expects it not always to be a perfectly sunny day.

但我認為這只是一個基本的目標設定，期望它並不總是一個完美的陽光燦爛的日子。

And I'll -- actually use this to expand on a cultural philosophy that I think is really important here.

我實際上會用它來擴展我認為在這裡非常重要的文化哲學。

And when I was good at the United States Air Force Academy, the best thing I learned was no excuses may have no excuses, sir.

當我在美國空軍學院學習時，我學到的最好的事情就是沒有藉口可能沒有藉口，先生。

It's hard.

這很難。

It's easy to point to the things that aren't your fault.

你很容易指出那些不是你的錯的事情。

They don't feel like they're your fault, but that was one of your basic cancers.

他們不覺得自己是你的錯，但那是你的基本癌症之一。

And we have tried to get that philosophy -- and still throughout United.

我們一直在努力實踐這種理念——而且仍然在整個曼聯。

What that means is it forces you to constantly get better.

這意味著它迫使你不斷變得更好。

It's easy to have an MBA in a cubicle somewhere come in at 9:00 AM on Monday in an air-conditioned office and calculate how much some event outside of your control cost.

週一上午 9:00，在有空調的辦公室裡，某個小隔間裡的 MBA 很容易就會計算出某些超出你控制範圍的活動的成本。

And right.

對了。

I mean it's not that it's wrong.

我的意思是這並不是說它是錯的。

But that -- then that's the end of the story.

但是──那麼故事就結束了。

If you have no excuses mantra, and you don't allow people to even go calculate those numbers, it forces people to go find innovation, creative ways to get better and better and better, so that you can overcome those things when they happen.

如果你沒有藉口，甚至不允許人們去計算這些數字，它就會迫使人們去尋找創新、創意的方法來變得越來越好，這樣當這些事情發生時你就能克服它們。

And -- we have said it a few times on this call.

而且──我們在這次電話會議上已經說過幾次了。

We are the innovation leader in the airline industry around the globe and second place is far behind.

我們是全球航空業的創新領導者，第二名遠遠落後。

And the no excuses philosophy is a big part of that.

沒有藉口的哲學是其中重要的一環。

It forces us to do things that we wouldn't otherwise do if we let ourselves just look at the calendar or look at the bad things that happen and write those off.

它迫使我們做一些我們本來不會做的事情，如果我們讓自己只看日曆或看看發生的壞事並將其註銷的話。

And so I think it's a really important cultural point that the team has on both the revenue side and the cost side.

因此，我認為團隊在收入方面和成本方面都具有非常重要的文化點。

And I'm proud of the team for taking it to heart, our Chief Operating Officer is in the room, Toby, and he says it in a different way, but great.

我為團隊將這一點牢記在心而感到自豪，我們的首席營運官就在房間裡，托比，他用不同的方式說了這句話，但很棒。

He says -- we're talking about things like the weather.

他說——我們正在談論天氣之類的事情。

It may not be our fault, but it is our responsibility.

這也許不是我們的錯，卻是我們的責任。

And that's the attitude we have here at United.

這就是我們在曼聯的態度。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just, Andrew, just on looking more towards the smaller cities in your network during COVID, I want to say there was probably 30 or 40 markets that you had pulled out of because of the pilot issue. -- now feels like that that's been alleviated somewhat.

然後，安德魯，在新冠疫情期間，我想說的是，由於試點問題，您可能已經退出了 30 或 40 個市場。 ——現在感覺這種情況已經有所緩解了。

When I think about your competitive moat and of those markets you serve, you were the only game in town.

當我想到你們的競爭護城河和你們所服務的市場時，你們是城裡唯一的遊戲。

I know Mike has mentioned some RASM -- or excuse me, some CASM pressure in 2025, maybe related to some additional regional finding.

我知道麥克提到了一些 RASM——或者對不起，2025 年的一些 CASM 壓力，可能與一些額外的區域發現有關。

I suspect maybe some of those markets are coming back online.

我懷疑其中一些市場可能會重新上線。

Anything that you can add to that?

您還有什麼可以補充的嗎？

Sure, Mike.

當然，麥克。

Just briefly.

只是簡單地說。

The RJ network -- well, first of all, the RJ fly-in has pulled back up to its new run rate in Q4.

RJ 網路—首先，RJ 飛入網路已在第四季度恢復到新的運作率。

And so that -- it has come back in line a little bit quicker than we anticipated at the beginning of the year, and they are smaller aircraft, and they do pressure CASM.

因此，它的恢復速度比我們年初的預期要快一些，而且它們是較小的飛機，它們確實給 CASM 帶來了壓力。

We also think they help RASM and profitability, which is, of course, why we've done it.

我們也認為它們有助於 RASM 和盈利能力，這當然也是我們這樣做的原因。

We are back to full utilization on the RJs at our new run rate fleet.

我們以新的運轉率機隊恢復了對 RJ 的充分利用。

We announced a deal I think last week for 11 CRJ-550s with SkyWest, that aircraft has been actually much better than expected for United.

我認為上週我們宣布了與 SkyWest 購買 11 架 CRJ-550 的交易，這架飛機實際上比美聯航​​的預期要好得多。

So we're glad to be able to expand that, which allows us to better serve the smaller communities.

因此，我們很高興能夠擴大這一範圍，這使我們能夠更好地為較小的社區提供服務。

But I also don't think there's a large-scale change coming at United and how we serve these smaller communities.

但我也不認為曼聯以及我們為這些較小社區提供服務的方式會發生大規模的變化。

Our plan over the long run is slightly less scheduled debt with lower frequency with aircraft that are bigger that have lower unit costs.

從長遠來看，我們的計劃是使用更大、單位成本更低的飛機，以較低的頻率稍微減少預定債務。

We said that with United -- next a number of years ago.

幾年前我們就對曼聯說過這樣的話。

We continue down that road and down that philosophy.

我們繼續沿著這條路和這個理念前進。

So expect the RJ fleet to still be around and do this thing, but it will become a smaller and smaller percentage of the business, and we will serve the smaller communities with a mixture of RJs and mainline judge and have the lowest cost possible in those communities.

因此，期望RJ 車隊仍然存在並做這件事，但它將在業務中所佔的比例越來越小，我們將透過RJ 和主線法官的混合服務為較小的社區提供服務，並在這些方面盡可能降低成本社區。

Steve Trent, Citi.

史蒂夫特倫特，花旗銀行。

Linda, best wishes to you on your retirement.

琳達，祝你退休愉快。

I wanted to ask very good trajectory in terms of reduced leverage.

我想問一下在降低槓桿方面非常好的軌跡。

Could you give us some high-level view on how this could dovetail with your credit strategy, maybe investment-grade rating on the horizon?

您能否給我們一些高層觀點，說明這如何與您的信貸策略（也許即將到來的投資等級評級）相符？

Steve, I appreciate that question. as our margin expands and our leverage decreases, we expect we will have investment-grade metrics, and we're going to work very hard earn the trust of the credit rating agencies to get investment-grade ratings to go along with those metrics.

史蒂夫，我很欣賞這個問題。隨著我們的利潤率擴大和槓桿率下降，我們預計將擁有投資等級指標，並且我們將非常努力地贏得信用評級機構的信任，以獲得與這些指標一致的投資等級。

But 2 times -- less than 2 times net debt with margins that are double digit with an industry structure that is more resilient with United as the leader within that industry, that's an investment-grade company.

但 2 倍——不到 2 倍的淨債務，利潤率達到兩位數，行業結構更具彈性，美聯航是該行業的領導者，這是一家投資級公司。

That makes a lot of sense, Mike, and I appreciate that.

麥克，這很有道理，我對此表示讚賞。

And just one other quick question.

還有一個簡單的問題。

You guys have some great partnerships with names like Copa and some of your Star Alliance fellows do anticipate a fair bit of long-term growth coming from these partnerships?

你們與 Copa 等公司有一些良好的合作關係，你們的一些星空聯盟成員確實預計這些合作夥伴關係會帶來相當大的長期成長？

Or are we really going to think about organic drivers for the growth.

或者我們真的會考慮成長的有機驅動因素嗎？

Sure, I'll take that.

當然，我會接受的。

Our partnerships are incredibly important to us, and we do have the marquee names across the globe with great hubs that we plan to However, our approach to growth is balanced.

我們的合作關係對我們來說非常重要，我們確實在全球範圍內擁有知名品牌，並擁有我們計劃建立的大型樞紐。

As I said earlier, we have the ability to grow profitably in our partner hubs, but we also have the ability to grow just as profitably outside of our partner hubs.

正如我之前所說，我們有能力在合作夥伴中心實現獲利成長，但我們也有能力在合作夥伴中心之外實現同樣的獲利成長。

We do incredibly well to London Heathrow, for example, which is not a partner hub for us.

例如，我們在倫敦希斯洛機場的表現非常好，但它不是我們的合作夥伴中心。

And so I would expect a balanced approach to this.

所以我希望對此採取平衡的方法。

Again, with the idea of expanded margins, but we will look to expand into new regions of the world that I think are uniquely supportable by habit hubs that are in New York and Washington, D.C. and San Francisco, in particular, those hubs just simply unlock the ability to fly to places like Marrakesh or Greenland or other places that we've recently added to the map.

再次，帶著擴大利潤的想法，但我們將尋求擴展到世界新地區，我認為這些地區能夠得到紐約、華盛頓特區和舊金山的習慣中心的獨特支持，特別是這些中心只是簡單地解鎖飛往馬拉喀什或格陵蘭島或我們最近添加到地圖中的其他地方的能力。

So international is an important part of United.

因此，國際化是曼聯的重要組成部分。

We're clearly the largest of the big three flying overseas.

我們顯然是海外飛行三巨頭中規模最大的。

We expect that to continue.

我們預計這種情況會持續下去。

But most importantly, we have really good margins, at least across two of those big entities today. and we look to expand those margins going forward.

但最重要的是，我們擁有非常好的利潤率，至少在今天的兩個大型實體中是如此。我們希望未來能夠擴大這些利潤。

(Operator Instructions) Leslie Josephs.

（操作員說明）萊斯利·約瑟夫斯。

I just wanted to ask around the election.

我只是想問選舉的情況。

I know one of your competitors talked about decline maybe a week before and a week after.

我知道你的一位競爭對手可能在一周前和一周後談到了衰退。

Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing -- and then also in this quarter, seeing some really, really low fares to Europe kind of across the board, across airlines and destinations.

您能談談您所看到的情況嗎？

And can you talk a little bit about that, what demand trends you're seeing?

您能談談您所看到的需求趨勢嗎？

And if this is just kind of a maybe a function of a lot of capacity, maybe people traveled already?

如果這只是大量容量的函數，也許人們已經旅行過？

Or what kind of what's at play there?

或是那裡有什麼樣的作用？

In terms of the election, I think what we would say is a presidential election normally has an impact on RASM.

就選舉而言，我認為我們會說總統選舉通常會對 RASM 產生影響。

Fewer people travel that week for the obvious reasons.

由於顯而易見的原因，那週出遊的人數減少了。

And here we are, it's four years later, and we are seeing the same thing.

四年後，我們看到了同樣的事情。

So I don't think there's anything to be surprised by.

所以我認為沒有什麼值得驚訝的。

In terms of Europe, Europe has a very good outlook.

就歐洲而言，歐洲的前景非常好。

We've had a very good nine months so far in Europe.

到目前為止，我們在歐洲度過了非常愉快的九個月。

We expect it to be good one for the rest of the year.

我們預計今年剩餘時間這將是一個很好的情況。

If you see a great far out there, I urge you and all your friends to buy it and take a trip to Europe.

如果你看到了很遠的地方，我強烈建議你和你所有的朋友購買它並去歐洲旅行。

It's great in the winter, particularly Southern Europe.

冬天很棒，尤其是南歐。

Rome is excellent in the winter.

羅馬的冬天非常好。

Mary Schlangenstein, Bloomberg.

瑪麗‧施蘭根斯坦，彭博社。

I wanted to see if you could go back a little bit on some of your comments about the outlook for Asia and China and how that might be changing and whether United plans to add back any additional China-US routes anytime soon?

我想聽聽您是否可以回顧一下您對亞洲和中國前景的一些評論，以及這種情況可能會如何變化，以及美聯航是否計劃很快增加任何額外的中美航線？

Sure, Mary.

當然，瑪麗。

I'd say, and I've said this in the past, China is just completely different for United today than it was pre-pandemic.

我想說，而且我過去也說過，今天的中國對曼聯來說與大流行前完全不同。

We used to fly, I think, roughly in flight today to China, and I think those days are gone.

我想，我們過去常常飛，今天大致是飛往中國的航班，我想那些日子已經一去不復返了。

The demand environment is just entirely different.

需求環境完全不同。

We just recently resumed Los Angeles to Shanghai, and we're bringing that up to daily that will bring us to three daily flights.

我們最近剛恢復了洛杉磯飛往上海的航班，並將其增加到每天三班。

And I really don't anticipate based on the demand we're seeing a lot more than that anytime soon.

根據我們短期內看到的需求，我真的不認為會出現更多的情況。

It's just a completely different world.

這只是一個完全不同的世界。

The situation in terms of the RASM, which I was talking about earlier, is as we've gone back to what is now a full schedule to China, we're back to what I would describe as normal RASMs.

我之前談到的 RASM 方面的情況是，當我們回到中國的完整時間表時，我們又回到了我所說的正常 RASM。

And those RASMs came down significantly from -- during the pandemic time period where you find a few flights per week.

在大流行期間，每週都有幾趟航班，這些 RASM 大幅下降。

And so that has had a negative impact on our year-over-year RASM results across specific for a number of quarters.

因此，這對我們多個季度的 RASM 業績年比產生了負面影響。

However, that comes to an end in Q4 and in Q1 when we lap that completely.

然而，當我們完全完成這一點時，這種情況將在第四季度和第一季結束。

And therefore, the RASM impact -- the negative RASM impact of China will dissipate, and we see this pivot that starts in Q4 and hopefully continues into next year.

因此，RASM 影響——中國的負面 RASM 影響將會消失，我們看到這一點將從第四季度開始，並有望持續到明年。

Can you give us an idea of the load factor on your China flights?

能為我們介紹一下中國航班的載客率嗎？

I don't have that in front of me, but not high enough.

我面前沒有這個，但還不夠高。

Rajesh Singh, Reuters.

拉傑什辛格，路透社。

I have a question about Boeing's price.

我對波音的價格有疑問。

When does it start affecting your United schedule?

它什麼時候開始影響你的曼聯日程？

And secondly, Emirates President, Tim Clark, recently said that Chapter 11 is looming on the horizon for Boeing.

其次，阿聯酋航空總裁 Tim Clark 最近表示，波音公司即將遵守第 11 章。

Do you share that view?

你同意這個觀點嗎？

And have you done any contingency planning around that possibility?

您是否針對這種可能性制定了應急計劃？

It's hard to hear all of that, but we're not anticipating the outcome you described.

很難聽到所有這些，但我們並沒有預料到您所描述的結果。

And do you expect -- when does this try to start having an impact on your schedule?

您預計這會在什麼時候開始對您的日程安排產生影響？

It really does.

確實如此。

That's immediate when the aircraft have stopped delivering.

當飛機停止交付時，就會立即發生這種情況。

But as I said in my earlier comments, we have -- we're encouraged that Boeing is focused on the long term.

但正如我在先前的評論中所說，我們對波音專注於長期發展感到鼓舞。

We want to focus on the long term.

我們希望著眼於長期。

I talked to Kelly as recently as yesterday and appreciate his focus on the long term, and that's what we care about.

就在昨天，我與凱利進行了交談，並感謝他對長期發展的關注，這就是我們所關心的。

It has a short-term impact, but I think Boeing is positioning themselves for a strong turnaround in the long term.

它有短期影響，但我認為波音公司正在為長期的強勁轉變做好準備。

That concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

And I will now turn the call back over to Kristina Edwards for closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給克里斯蒂娜·愛德華茲（Kristina Edwards）做總結發言。

Thanks, Krista, and thanks to everyone joining the call today.

謝謝克里斯塔，也感謝今天加入電話會議的所有人。

Please contact Investor Media Relations if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

如果您有任何其他問題，請聯絡投資者媒體關係部，我們期待下季度與您交談。

Happy Halloween.

萬聖節快樂。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。