聯合航空 (UAL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to United Airlines Holdings' Earnings Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter 2023 and Full Year 2023. My name is Tegan, and I will be your conference facilitator today. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded and is copyrighted.

早安，歡迎參加聯合航空控股公司 2023 年第四季和 2023 年全年收益電話會議。我叫 Tegan，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。 （操作員說明）此通話正在錄音並受版權保護。

Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed or rebroadcast without the company's permission. Your participation implies your consent to our recording of the call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line.

請注意，未經本公司許可，不得對通話的任何部分進行錄音、轉錄或轉播。您的參與意味著您同意我們對通話進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，只需掛斷電話即可。

I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Kristina Edwards, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我將把簡報交給今天電話會議的主持人、投資者關係董事總經理 Kristina Edwards。請繼續。

Thank you, Tegan. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our website at ir.united.com.

謝謝你，泰根。大家早安，歡迎參加美聯航 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。昨天，我們發布了收益報告，可在我們的網站 ir.united.com 上取得。

Information in yesterday's release, which is made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements. which represents the company's current expectations or beliefs concerning future events and financial performance. All forward-looking statements are based upon information currently available to the company.

昨天在本次電話會議期間發布的資訊可能包含前瞻性陳述。它代表公司目前對未來事件和財務表現的預期或信念。所有前瞻性陳述均基於公司目前掌握的資訊。

A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release, Form 10-K and 10-Q and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings, Inc. and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors.

許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異。請參閱我們的收益報告、表格 10-K 和 10-Q 以及聯合航空控股公司和聯合航空向 SEC 提交的其他報告，以了解這些因素的更全面描述。

Unless otherwise noted, we will be discussing our financial metrics on a non-GAAP basis on this call. Please refer to the related definitions and reconciliations in our press release. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings release.

除非另有說明，我們將在本次電話會議上討論非公認會計原則的財務指標。請參閱我們新聞稿中的相關定義和調節。有關這些非公認會計準則衡量標準與最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量標準的調節，請參閱我們收益發布末尾的表格。

Joining us on the call today to discuss our results and outlook our Chief Executive Officer, Scott Kirby; President, Brett Hart; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Leskinen. In addition, we have other members of the executive team on the line available to assist with the Q&A.

今天就加入我們的電話會議，討論我們的業績並展望我們的執行長 Scott Kirby；主席布雷特·哈特；執行副總裁兼首席商務官安德魯‧諾切拉；執行副總裁兼財務長 Mike Leskinen。此外，我們還有其他管理團隊成員在線上協助問答。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

現在我想把電話轉給史考特。

Thank you, Kristina, and good morning to everyone on the call today. Despite the numerous geopolitical and other headwinds around the globe, 2023 really was a year that our plan for United Next came together. Our thesis at this time last year was that operational constraints and other factors were leading to cost converters, and those cost pressures in turn would lead to higher revenue. That is certainly true for United because our diversified revenue streams continued to differentiate us from other airlines.

謝謝克里斯蒂娜，今天與會的每個人都早安。儘管全球存在眾多地緣政治和其他不利因素，2023 年確實是我們的 United Next 計畫得以實現的一年。去年這個時候我們的論點是，營運限制和其他因素導致了成本轉化，而這些成本壓力又會帶來更高的收入。對於美聯航來說確實如此，因為我們多元化的收入來源繼續使我們與其他航空公司區分開來。

Another way of saying that is that we believe that a new link between United's CASM and RASM was being solidified. And while I'd be hard to get either a CASM or RASM forecast exactly correct, we could have higher confidence in forecasting the relationship between the 2, and therefore, we have higher confidence in our earnings and the margin forecast. And is by the year, build on the best that we could have never predicted. That's exactly what happened in 2023.

換句話說，我們相信曼聯的 CASM 和 RASM 之間的新聯繫正在鞏固。雖然我很難讓 CASM 或 RASM 預測完全正確，但我們可以對預測兩者之間的關係有更高的信心，因此，我們對我們的收益和利潤率預測有更高的信心。到了今年，我們將在我們從未預料到的最好的基礎上再接再厲。這正是 2023 年發生的事。

And so I'd like to thank the 100,000 United team members around the world who worked so hard to make that. And those same 100,000 people continue to deliver in the face of huge impacts on our employees and customers from the MAX 9 aircraft. I'm proud of our tech ops team, who's taken the lead and has been working 18-hour days nonstop since January to ensure that the MAX 9 is 100% safe before we return it to service.

因此，我要感謝全球 10 萬名曼聯團隊成員，他們為實現這一目標付出了巨大的努力。儘管 MAX 9 飛機對我們的員工和客戶造成巨大影響，這 10 萬名員工仍繼續提供服務。我為我們的技術營運團隊感到自豪，他們帶頭自 1 月起每天不間斷地工作 18 小時，以確保 MAX 9 在我們恢復使用之前 100% 安全。

I'd also like to thank the FAA for their professional leadership in this situation and also acknowledge that they too are also working long hours and weekends with us, in an effort to ensure that we know for sure what happens so that we'd be confident that the remediation prevents it from ever happening again.

我還要感謝美國聯邦航空局在這種情況下的專業領導，並承認他們也在與我們一起長時間工作和周末工作，以確保我們確切地知道發生了什麼，以便我們能夠相信補救措施可以防止類似情況再次發生。

2023 really sets the stage for what is likely to be a repeat in 2024. United financial performance was impressive, especially considered what analysts were expecting just 1 year ago.

2023 年確實為 2024 年可能重演的情況奠定了基礎。曼聯的財務表現令人印象深刻，尤其是考慮到分析師一年前的預期。

In 2023, we delivered full year earnings per share above $10, which was within the range of our initial United targets of $10 to $12. I want to spend some time today examining how we got there and why we think those trends will persist in 2024.

2023 年，我們的全年每股收益超過 10 美元，這在我們最初設定的 10 至 12 美元目標範圍內。今天我想花一些時間來研究我們是如何實現這一目標的，以及為什麼我們認為這些趨勢將在 2024 年持續存在。

One, we expect the operating environment to be challenging, driven by pilots and other hiring constraints, FAA, air traffic control set, maintenance catch-up and supply chain issues. It turned out to be even more challenging than we thought. Two, and those operating environment challenge led directly to industry capacity plans, including our own coming down 3 points on average as carriers adopted to the new operating environment.

第一，我們預計，在飛行員和其他招募限制、美國聯邦航空局、空中交通管制、維護趕工和供應鏈問題的推動下，營運環境將充滿挑戰。事實證明，這比我們想像的更具挑戰性。第二，這些營運環境挑戰直接導致了產業產能計劃，包括隨著營運商適應新的營運環境，我們自己的產能計劃平均下降了3個百分點。

For United, we made changes to our schedule and we closed out the year setting operational records. The improvements in Newark, in particular, are one of the most important accomplishments that we achieved last year. Brett will share more detail in just a moment, but the FAA waivers rightsize the airport and aerospace, to physical constraints that allowed us to run an operation that is performing better than ever in Newark. That's been good for our business, and it's been really good for our customers.

對於曼聯來說，我們改變了日程安排，並創下了營運記錄。尤其是紐瓦克的進步，是我們去年取得的最重要的成就之一。布雷特稍後將分享更多細節，但美國聯邦航空局的豁免調整了機場和航空航天的規模，以適應物理限制，使我們能夠在紐瓦克開展比以往任何時候都表現更好的業務。這對我們的業務有好處，對我們的客戶也有好處。

Three, but as we predict the challenging operating environment led to cost pressures and cost conversions in the industry, to be fair, even we at United underestimated, the inflationary pressures that we would face primarily from labor, maintenance and supply chain issues, and that led to higher absolute CASM-ex than we were forecasting. But those same cost pressures are being [bogged] across the entire industry. And a year ago, when we talked -- we believe the industry-wide cost pressures will wind up as a pass-through, much like fuel have been in the past, or, and that is, in fact, exactly what happened.

三，但正如我們預測的那樣，充滿挑戰的營運環境會導致行業的成本壓力和成本轉換，公平地說，即使我們聯合航空也低估了我們將面臨的通膨壓力主要來自勞動力、維護和供應鏈問題，而且導致 CASM-ex 絕對值高於我們的預測。但整個產業都面臨同樣的成本壓力。一年前，當我們談論時，我們相信全行業的成本壓力最終將成為一種傳遞，就像過去的燃料一樣，或者，事實上，這正是發生的情況。

While industry cost pressures drove higher CASM-ex at United, we offset those higher-than-expected costs with higher-than-expected revenues.

雖然產業成本壓力推高了美聯航的 CASM-ex，但我們用高於預期的收入抵消了高於預期的成本。

Five, which leads to the final point. while difficult to predict events like the fuel price spike, rising conflicts in the Middle East, fires in Mali, persisting inflationary pressure. So many other things that make it difficult to predict United's full year 2023 CASM in rather than 12 months in advance. The timing connection at United between CASM and RASM meant that we achieved our initial $10 to $12 EPS range despite those multiple headwinds around the globe.

五，這就引出了最後一點。而諸如燃油價格飆升、中東衝突加劇、馬利火災、持續的通膨壓力等難以預測的事件。如此多的因素使得我們很難提前而不是提前 12 個月預測曼聯 2023 年全年 CASM。聯合航空 CASM 和 RASM 之間的時間連結意味著，儘管全球面臨多重阻力，我們還是實現了最初 10 美元至 12 美元的每股收益範圍。

The link between RASM and CASM combined with the success of United Next, what made 2023 such a successful and important year in our history, and we expect 2024 to follow a similar path for the same reasons. This is just the new normal. The operational challenges remain. It will be years before the FAA is back to full staffing. We're still overlapping new labor agreements, which shows in our CASM and the supply chain challenges aren't going away anytime soon. That means capacity will continue to ratchet down out of necessities and cost convergence will continue. But revenues will adjust to the new cost reality, and you can expect United to maintain and grow EPS and margins.

RASM 和 CASM 之間的聯繫加上 United Next 的成功，使得 2023 年成為我們歷史上如此成功和重要的一年，出於同樣的原因，我們預計 2024 年也將走上類似的道路。這只是新常態。營運挑戰依然存在。美國聯邦航空局還需要數年時間才能恢復全部人員配置。我們仍在重疊新的勞工協議，這在我們的 CASM 中表明，供應鏈挑戰不會很快消失。這意味著產能將繼續減少以滿足必需品需求，並且成本趨同將持續。但營收將根據新的成本現實進行調整，您可以預期美聯航將維持並成長每股盈餘和利潤率。

2.5 years ago, we laid out our United Next growth strategy. In 2023, we demonstrated that the plan is working almost exactly as we expected in the future is bright. There have been and there will be more bumps in the road. But we continue to feel confident about our ability to grow earnings and margin over the long term because of the tighter connection between United's cost and United's revenue.

2.5 年前，我們制定了 United Next 成長策略。 2023 年，我們證明該計劃幾乎完全按照我們的預期進行，未來是光明的。道路上已經有並將有更多的坎坷。但由於曼聯的成本和收入之間的聯繫更加緊密，我們仍然對長期增加收入和利潤的能力充滿信心。

Looking ahead to 2024, the United Next plan is working and no airline is better positioned to capitalize on industry and macroeconomic trends than United, and we're continuing to move aggressively to capitalize on emerging opportunities. We'll have more to share with you at our Investor Day later this spring.

展望 2024 年，United Next 計畫正在發揮作用，沒有哪家航空公司比美聯航更能充分利用產業和宏觀經濟趨勢，我們將繼續積極採取行動，抓住新興機會。我們將在今年春天晚些時候的投資者日與您分享更多資訊。

In the meantime, we're focused on delivering another great year for our employees and customers and our shareholders. And with that, I'll hand it over to Brett.

同時，我們致力於為我們的員工、客戶和股東創造另一個美好的一年。這樣，我就把它交給布雷特了。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. As of Saturday, January 6, Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft has been grounded. We are currently the largest operator of the Boeing (inaudible) fleet type aircraft representing approximately 8% of our capacity in the first quarter. Our financial guidance assumes that United 79 MAX 9 aircraft is grounded since the start of January.

謝謝你，斯科特，早安。截至 1 月 6 日星期六，波音 737 MAX 9 飛機已停飛。我們目前是波音（聽不清楚）機隊類型飛機的最大營運商，約占我們第一季運力的 8%。我們的財務指引假設美聯航 79 MAX 9 飛機自 1 月初以來已停飛。

I echo Scott's gratitude for all United who worked so hard (inaudible) travel plans were affected by the grounding of our MAX 9 fleet. I'm also extremely proud of our Tech Ops team, who we're working carefully to ensure the safety of our MAX 9 aircraft before we start flying them again. 2023 was a year of growth and restoration. And we closed out the year with strong record-breaking operational results, carrying a record 171 million customers.

我同意斯科特對所有因 MAX 9 機隊停飛而影響旅行計劃而辛勤工作的美聯航人員的感激之情。我也為我們的技術營運團隊感到非常自豪，他們正在認真工作，以確保 MAX 9 飛機在我們再次開始飛行之前的安全。 2023年是成長和復原的一年。我們以創紀錄的強勁營運業績結束了這一年，擁有創紀錄的 1.71 億客戶。

The fourth quarter consolidated customer D0, A0 and misconnect rate were the best for any quarter in our history. Not only did we set company records for the quarter, but we also (inaudible) record-setting operations during our busiest time of the year over Thanksgiving and Christmas.

第四季的合併客戶 D0、A0 和誤接率是我們歷史上任何季度中最好的。我們不僅創造了本季的公司記錄，而且還在感恩節和聖誕節等一年中最繁忙的時期創造了（聽不清楚）營運記錄。

Thanksgiving and the entire fourth quarter had the highest NPS scores in our post-pandemic history. We wrapped up the year with our lowest ever cancel rate for the month of December. One of the largest challenges United and all airlines flying to and from New York have historically faced more flights than air traffics -- than the air traffic system can handle is now being addressed, thanks to proactive intervention by the FAA.

感恩節和整個第四季度的 NPS 得分是我們大流行後歷史上最高的。我們以 12 月有史以來最低的取消率結束了這一年。由於美國聯邦航空局的積極幹預，美聯航和所有往返紐約的航空公司歷來面臨的最大挑戰之一已經解決。

Newark, United's largest hub has been operating with the best reliability on record since the FAA mandated that flight activity to be consistent with the aerospace and runway limitations of no more 77 operations per hour this fall. For United, that meant we reduced flight activity from Newark by about 10%. Expect to continue with those cuts for the remainder of 2024. Our customers and every passenger flying from New York are now benefiting and the cascade of delays that historically would flow across the United States from New York airspace has significantly improved.

自從美國聯邦航空局(FAA) 要求飛行活動符合航空航天和跑道限制（今年秋季每小時不再運營77 架次）以來，美聯航最大的樞紐紐瓦克機場一直以有史以來最好的可靠性運營。對於美聯航來說，這意味著我們將從紐瓦克出發的航班活動減少了約 10%。預計在2024 年剩餘時間將繼續實施這些削減措施。我們的客戶和每一位從紐約起飛的乘客現在都受益匪淺，而且歷史上從紐約空域飛越美國的一連串延誤現像也得到了顯著改善。

Our customer D0 from Newark the company record 76% in Q4 of 2023. We expect this level of performance to continue as long as the FAA continues to mandate the flat operations remain at 77 or fewer operations per hour going forward. United plans to continue to upgauge our Newark flying to ensure that there is plenty of capacity available for our customers even with fewer flights.

我們來自紐瓦克的客戶D0 在2023 年第4 季的記錄為76%。我們預計，只要FAA 繼續要求未來扁平運行保持在每小時77 次或更少，我們預計這種性能水平就會持續下去。美聯航計劃繼續升級我們的紐瓦克航班，以確保即使航班數量減少，也能為我們的客戶提供充足的運力。

2023 was also a banner year for employee recruiting, hiring and retention at United. On the heels of hiring more than 21,000 people in 2022, we hired another 16,000 aviation professionals to our airline last year. We hire the best of the best. The skill and talent of our employees played a big role in our operational performance -- outperformance in the second half of the year. Our record-breaking customer scores during the holidays and our overall financial performance as an airline in 2023.

2023 年對於美聯航的員工招募、聘用和留任也是標誌性的一年。繼 2022 年僱用超過 21,000 名員工後，我們去年又為我們的航空公司僱用了 16,000 名航空專業人士。我們聘請最優秀的人才。我們員工的技能和才能對我們的營運績效發揮了重要作用——下半年表現出色。我們在假期期間破紀錄的客戶評分以及我們作為航空公司 2023 年的整體財務表現。

We are a better, more successful airline because of our people. And I'm proud of the way we've gone about growing our team. I'm happy to announce we will be paying our eligible employees, $81 million in profit sharing next month. This is 5x higher than 2022, and over 2x higher than the average of the last 10 years. Our team will be the part of this airline profit sharing. I'll be sharing these impressive results today without them.

由於我們的員工，我們成為一家更好、更成功的航空公司。我對我們發展團隊的方式感到自豪。我很高興地宣布，我們將在下個月向符合資格的員工支付 8,100 萬美元的利潤分享。這比 2022 年高出 5 倍，比過去 10 年的平均值高出 2 倍以上。我們的團隊將成為該航空公司利潤分享的一部分。今天我將在沒有他們的情況下分享這些令人印象深刻的結果。

With that, I will pass it over to Andrew.

這樣，我會將其轉交給安德魯。

Thanks, Brett. As Scott mentioned, comp pressures led to healthy revenue trends in the quarter with stellar performance over the holidays. Total revenues in the fourth quarter increased 9.9% on a 14.7% increase in capacity. Consolidated TRASM was down 4.2% and PRASM was down 3.3% for the quarter. Domestic demand was strong in the quarter and PRASM results were slightly negative year-over-year, a nice improvement from the third quarter.

謝謝，布雷特。正如斯科特所提到的，競爭壓力導致本季收入趨勢健康，假期期間表現出色。第四季總營收成長 9.9%，運力成長 14.7%。本季度，綜合 TRASM 下跌 4.2%，PRASM 下跌 3.3%。本季國內需求強勁，PRASM 業績較去年同期略有下降，較第三季有了不錯的改善。

Atlantic PRASM growth in Q4 of positive 3.8% was consistent with Q3 year-over-year growth of 4%. We also experienced a small but measurable demand weakness period across for Europe in Q4 triggered by the conflict of Israel, but that has now moderated. United increased Asia Pacific flying by 82% in the quarter. PRASM was down 11.6% year-over-year.

大西洋 PRASM 第四季正成長 3.8%，與第三季 4% 的年成長一致。第四季度，歐洲也經歷了以色列衝突引發的小幅但可衡量的需求疲軟期，但現在已經有所緩解。美聯航本季亞太地區航班數量增加了 82%。 PRASM 年減 11.6%。

In the quarter, we increased flying to China from 4 weekly flights to twice daily. Amongst many other changes we've now fully restored our capacity to pre-voted levels across the Pacific. Latin American unit revenues decreased by 11.6% in the quarter, pressured by record industry capacity levels and heavy fare discounting. Cargo revenues continue to adjust to their new city state post-pandemic state. For 2023, cargo revenues were $1.5 billion, 31% lower than 2022. Amongst all the revenue changes due to yields, not volumes.

本季度，我們將飛往中國的航班從每週 4 班增加到每天 2 班。除了許多其他變化之外，我們現在已將整個太平洋地區的運力完全恢復到預先投票的水平。受創紀錄的行業產能水準和大幅票價折扣的壓力，拉丁美洲的單位收入在本季下降了 11.6%。貨運收入持續調整以適應疫情後的新城邦狀態。 2023 年，貨運收入為 15 億美元，比 2022 年下降 31%。其中，所有收入變化是由產量而非數量引起的。

(technical difficulty) Turning to our outlook for the first quarter. We expect TRASM in Q1 to be approximately flat year-over-year, which is a nice sequential improvement versus the past few quarters. Domestic demand remains strong with increases in business traffic volumes year-over-year in addition to stronger pricing thus far this year, and we expect domestic year-over-year PRASM to be positive for the quarter. We see the best yield growth occurring on tickets purchased within a week of departure.

（技術難度）轉向我們對第一季的展望。我們預計第一季的 TRASM 與去年同期基本持平，與過去幾季相比，這是一個很好的連續改善。國內需求依然強勁，業務流量逐年增加，加上今年迄今價格走強，我們預計本季國內 PRASM 同比將呈現積極態勢。我們發現出發一週內購買的機票收益成長最佳。

Bookings and yields for Atlantic fly in early 2024 are also strong and we expect these trends to continue into the second and third quarters. Service to Tel Aviv will resume as soon as it's safe for our customers and crew but no sooner than February 15.

2024 年初大西洋航班的預訂量和收益也很強勁，我們預計這些趨勢將持續到第二和第三季。一旦我們的乘客和機組人員安全，飛往特拉維夫的服務就會恢復，但不早於 2 月 15 日。

We also saw a nice step-up in London Heathrow business demand in recent weeks, which has helped in Atlantic results in Q1 to date when combined with lower United capacity to London. We remain focused on slow growth across the Atlantic for 2024. Asia Pacific growth remains above normal as we head into Q1, we continue to absorb the incremental Asia Pacific capacity added in 2023. We expect all of United's new Asia capacity to produce strong margin results as we head into Q2 and Q3.

最近幾週，我們也看到倫敦希斯洛機場的業務需求出現了良好的成長，加上美聯航飛往倫敦的運力下降，這對大西洋航空迄今第一季的業績有所幫助。我們仍然關注2024 年大西洋彼岸的緩慢成長。進入第一季度，亞太地區的成長仍高於正常水平，我們將繼續吸收2023 年新增的亞太地區產能。我們預計美聯航在亞洲的所有新增產能都將產生強勁的利潤率結果當我們進入第二季和第三季時。

Latin American RASM is expected to remain negative for Q1 year-over-year, a trend that's likely to continue into Q2. FAA imposed industry capacity limitations on New York for virtually all of 2024 and San Francisco for most of 2024 will limit capacity from either airport. We've prioritized international growth over domestic at both hubs. We're optimistic that the demand will catch up with supply in 2024 in these 2 United hubs that have lagged the recovery elsewhere.

拉丁美洲 RASM 預計第一季同比仍為負值，這一趨勢可能會持續到第二季​​。 FAA 在 2024 年幾乎全年對紐約實施行業運力限制，在 2024 年大部分時間對舊金山實施行業運力限制，這兩個機場都將限制運力。在這兩個中心，我們都將國際成長置於國內成長之上。我們樂觀地認為，這兩個美聯航樞紐的需求將在 2024 年趕上供應，而這兩個樞紐的復甦落後於其他地方。

In summary, we expect strong unit revenue performance on domestic and Atlantic capacity in early 2024, with weaker results in Asia as we absorb 2023 growth and in Latin America due to record industry capacity growth levels.

總之，我們預計 2024 年初國內和大西洋產能的單位收入表現將強勁，而亞洲的業績將較弱，因為我們吸收了 2023 年的增長，拉丁美洲的業績則因創紀錄的行業產能增長水平而疲軟。

While we expect international RASMs will grow slower than domestic for a period, we also expect that international flying will have materially higher margins for United versus domestic in 2024, just less of a gap than in 2023. We, at United, have I think, created a really very durable commercial model that has diversified our revenue streams and our network and largely decommoditized our product versus just about every other airline in the U.S. maybe for the exception of one. Our commercial strategy has resulted in fair levels at United just in -- not only for changes in price of fuel, but also for the cost inputs at United allowing us to overcome the inflationary cost pressures larger than we expected in 2023. You can see this in our relative revenue performance quarter-to-quarter.

雖然我們預計國際RASM 在一段時間內的成長速度將慢於國內航班，但我們也預計2024 年美聯航國際航班的利潤率將大幅高於國內航班，僅比2023 年的差距小一些。我認為，在美聯航，創建了一種非常持久的商業模式，使我們的收入來源和網絡多樣化，並在很大程度上使我們的產品非商品化，與美國幾乎所有其他航空公司相比，也許只有一家航空公司是例外。我們的商業策略剛剛在美聯航實現了公平的水平——不僅是燃油價格的變化，還包括美聯航的成本投入，使我們能夠克服2023 年超出預期的通膨成本壓力。您可以看到這一點我們的季度相對收入表現。

United unique hub system in the largest U.S. cities and the network we have built over decades from these hubs underpins our outlook and gives United access to revenues and profitable flying others simply do not have or have not been able to replicate. The United Next fleet growth in recent years has allowed us to unlock the true value in our hub system, which you can see from our results today. Unique aircraft cabin and capacity plans continue to be a driver of our strong revenue performance, particularly as demand for premium products remains elevated.

美聯航在美國最大城市擁有獨特的樞紐系統，以及我們數十年來從這些樞紐建立的網絡支撐著我們的前景，並使美聯航能夠獲得其他航空公司無法複製的收入和盈利性飛行。近年來，United Next 機隊的成長使我們能夠釋放樞紐系統的真正價值，您可以從我們今天的表現中看到這一點。獨特的飛機客艙和運力計劃繼續成為我們強勁收入表現的推動力，特別是在對優質產品的需求持續上升的情況下。

For example, domestic premium revenue grew 13% year-over-year in Q4, over double the rate of coach, another data point validating our strategy. While we remain focused on monetizing our growing premium capacity, we also remain committed to Basic Economy. Domestic Basic Economy revenue was up nearly 20% in the fourth quarter versus last year. Correcting a gauge deficits at United remains a key component of the future. We continue to believe we can add gauge to domestic flying while maintaining strong unit revenues.

例如，第四季國內保費收入年增 13%，是教練的兩倍多，這是驗證我們策略的另一個數據點。在我們繼續專注於將不斷成長的優質運力貨幣化的同時，我們也仍然致力於基礎經濟。第四季國內基礎經濟艙營收較去年成長近 20%。糾正曼聯的儀表赤字仍然是未來的關鍵組成部分。我們仍然相信，我們可以在保持強勁的單位收入的同時增加國內飛行的規模。

Since 2019, United has increased its North American gauge by 22%, while also leading in PRASM growth. For 2024, we intend to focus much of our domestic growth in our mid-con hubs in Washington, Dallas, as we had significant levels of new connectivity. This connectivity change is why we have confidence in the RASM being accretive in 2024. Diversified revenue streams across our global network remain key to our relative success as we implement our United Next plans. United's global network is a key structural advantage we will focus on in the coming years, and it differentiates us.

自 2019 年以來，美聯航的北美航線成長了 22%，同時在 PRASM 成長方面也處於領先地位。到 2024 年，我們打算將大部分國內成長重點放在華盛頓和達拉斯的中型中心，因為我們有大量的新連結。這種連結變化是我們對 RASM 在 2024 年實現成長充滿信心的原因。當我們實施 United Next 計畫時，我們全球網路的多元化收入來源仍然是我們相對成功的關鍵。美聯航的全球網路是我們未來幾年將重點關注的關鍵結構性優勢，它使我們與眾不同。

With that, I wanted to say thanks to the entire United team and hand it over to Mike to discuss our financial results. Mike?

說到這裡，我想對整個曼聯團隊表示感謝，並將其交給麥克討論我們的財務表現。麥克風？

Thanks, Andrew, and thank you to the whole United team for closing up the year on a high note, both operationally and financially.

謝謝安德魯，也感謝整個曼聯團隊在營運和財務方面都以高調結束了這一年。

I'm proud to report that in 2023, we delivered pretax income of $4.3 billion, a more than $3.2 billion improvement over 2022. We delivered earnings per share of $10.05 within our initial guidance range of $10 to $12, and well ahead of consensus expectations of about $6 at the beginning of the year. We achieved this despite significant industry headwinds and operational constraints that led to lower capacity.

我很自豪地向大家報告，2023 年，我們實現了43 億美元的稅前收入，比2022 年增加了32 億美元以上。我們實現了每股收益10.05 美元，處於10 至12 美元的初始指導範圍內，遠遠超出了共識預期年初時約為 6 美元。儘管存在巨大的行業阻力和營運限制導致產能下降，但我們還是實現了這一目標。

For the fourth quarter, we delivered pretax income of $845 million and earnings per share of $2, ahead of consensus and above the high end of our guidance range. Strong operational performance, robust revenue trends and a decrease in fuel prices supported these results.

第四季度，我們實現了 8.45 億美元的稅前收入和 2 美元的每股收益，超出了共識，也高於我們指導範圍的上限。強勁的營運業績、強勁的收入趨勢和燃油價格的下降支撐了這些結果。

Fourth quarter CASM-ex was up 4.9% as we did not operate flight to Tel Aviv for the full quarter. Additionally, effective with the fourth quarter, we are now classifying certain commissions that has been classified as contra-revenue and distribution expense. This has no impact on net income or cash flow. This change added 1 point to our year-on-year fourth quarter CASM-ex and increased fourth quarter year-on-year unit revenue by 0.6 points. The change will also result in an approximate 1 point headwind to year-on-year CASM-ex in an approximate 0.6 point increase in RASM through the end of the third quarter of this year.

第四季 CASM-ex 上漲 4.9%，因為我們整個季度沒有營運飛往特拉維夫的航班。此外，從第四季度開始，我們現在將對某些已被歸類為對沖收入和分銷費用的佣金進行分類。這對淨利潤或現金流沒有影響。這項變更使我們第四季 CASM-ex 年比增加 1 個百分點，並使第四季單位收入年增 0.6 個百分點。這項變更還將導致今年第三季末 RASM 年比增加約 0.6 個百分點，與 CASM-ex 相比下降約 1 個百分點。

Underlying unit costs trended favorably during the quarter as the completion factor came in better than planned due to our strong operational performance. Compared to 2019, our relative performance on CASM-ex was near the top of the industry. As Scott outlined, delivering strong relative cost performance remains critical to the successful execution of United Next.

由於我們強勁的營運業績，完工率優於計劃，本季基本單位成本趨勢良好。與 2019 年相比，我們在 CASM-ex 上的相對錶現接近產業頂部。正如史考特所概述的，提供強勁的相對性價比對於 United Next 的成功執行仍然至關重要。

We have always ascertained the costs that are borne by the entire industry are passed along in prices with a lag. Historically, this relationship has been clear with jet fuel prices. More recently, the relationship has been clear for both higher labor and higher maintenance costs as well.

我們一直確定，整個產業承擔的成本是滯後地透過價格轉嫁的。從歷史上看，這種關係與航空燃油價格之間的關係非常明顯。最近，更高的勞動力和更高的維護成本之間的關係也變得清晰起來。

Notably, our unit cost in 2023 were up 17.8% versus 2019 compared to ultra low-cost carriers unit costs that are expected to be up 25% on average. That more than 7-point cost convergence and costs occurred simultaneous with an emerging preference for United product. The top-tier operational reliability that United provides. The result is unsurprising. Our margins have dramatically and structurally improved, and we're only in the early innings of that journey.

值得注意的是，我們 2023 年的單位成本比 2019 年成長了 17.8%，而超低成本航空的單位成本預計平均成長 25%。超過 7 個點的成本趨同和成本與人們對美聯航產品的偏好同時出現。美聯航提供頂級的營運可靠性。結果並不令人意外。我們的利潤率在結構上得到了顯著改善，但我們仍處於這趟旅程的早期階段。

For the first quarter of 2024, we expect a loss per share between negative $0.35 and negative $0.85. While our core costs remain on track, our first quarter CASM-ex faces a few headwinds.

對於 2024 年第一季度，我們預計每股虧損在負 0.35 美元到負 0.85 美元之間。雖然我們的核心成本仍處於正軌，但我們第一季的 CASM-ex 面臨一些阻力。

First, the cancellations of the MAX 9 flights have reduced first quarter capacity. Due to the close in nature of these canceled assets, most of our expenses are fixed. And we also incurred additional interrupted trip expenses. We expect the combination of these items will increase CASM-ex by approximately 3 points.

首先，MAX 9 航班的取消減少了第一季的運能。由於這些被取消資產的性質是封閉的，我們大部分的費用都是固定的。我們還產生了額外的中斷旅行費用。我們預計這些項目的結合將使 CASM-ex 增加約 3 個點。

Second, as we mentioned that the contra-revenue reclassification in the distribution expense is the 1 point headwind.

其次，正如我們所提到的，分銷費用中的對收入重新分類是 1 個百分點的阻力。

Third, the impact of new labor agreements as they annualize as an additional 3 to 4 points.

第三，新勞工協議的影響，以年計算會增加 3 至 4 個百分點。

And fourth, a higher volume of [engine] events and continued supply chain challenges lead to another 1 point of CASM-ex headwind.

第四，更多的[引擎]事件和持續的供應鏈挑戰導致 CASM-ex 的逆風又增加了 1 個點。

While the first 2 items I mentioned are United-specific headwinds, labor and maintenance are an industry-wide issue, and the primary drivers of the cost conversions that Scott described earlier.

雖然我提到的前兩項是美聯航特有的不利因素，但勞動力和維護是整個行業的問題，也是斯科特之前描述的成本轉換的主要驅動因素。

Most importantly, we're confident that the pace of inflation in our costs will continue to be favorable versus our historically lower cost competitors.

最重要的是，我們相信，與歷史上成本較低的競爭對手相比，我們的成本通膨速度將繼續有利。

Building off of our 2023 momentum, we expect full year 2024 earnings per share to be between $9 to $11. We are encouraged by the trends we are seeing and our United Next plan is working well. This is our guidance, but I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that our internal targets are higher. We plan to update our longer-term financial targets at our upcoming Investor Day.

憑藉 2023 年的勢頭，我們預計 2024 年全年每股收益將在 9 美元至 11 美元之間。我們對所看到的趨勢感到鼓舞，我們的 United Next 計劃進展順利。這是我們的指導方針，但如果我沒有指出我們的內部目標更高，那就是我的失職。我們計劃在即將到來的投資者日更新我們的長期財務目標。

Looking ahead, we intend to take a different approach to guidance. As demonstrated in 2023 and just recently with the MAX grounding, we operate in a dynamic industry. With the no excuses philosophy, we intended to take United off the detailed quarterly metrics shortly after I joined and led the Investor Relations team. The pandemic interrupted those plans, but now that we're past the crisis, and as we deliver on our earnings per share target, you should expect us to remove TRASM, CASM-ex and capacity guidance and focus on earnings per share.

展望未來，我們打算採取不同的指導方法。正如 2023 年和最近 MAX 停飛所證明的那樣，我們所處的行業充滿活力。秉承「沒有任何藉口」的理念，在我加入並領導投資者關係團隊後不久，我們就打算取消美聯航的詳細季度指標。疫情打亂了這些計劃，但現在我們已經度過了危機，隨著我們實現每股收益目標，您應該期望我們取消 TRASM、CASM-ex 和產能指導，並專注於每股收益。

We've provided RASM and TRASM for the first quarter, but this is likely the last time we will do so for our quarter. We will continue to provide fulsome commentary on the trends impacting our business. and we will continue to be transparent with our views of the longer-term future for both United and the industry that we're managing this business towards. We will earn your confidence by delivering bottom line results.

我們在第一季提供了 RASM 和 TRASM，但這可能是我們本季最後一次這樣做。我們將繼續對影響我們業務的趨勢提供豐富的評論。我們將繼續對美聯航和我們所管理的行業的長期未來保持透明的看法。我們將透過提供底線結果來贏得您的信任。

Shifting gears to the fleet. In the fourth quarter, we took delivery of 20 Boeing MAX and 4 Airbus A321 aircraft. Looking ahead to 2024, we have a total of 107 aircraft scheduled to deliver, 31 of those being maximized. It is unrealistic at this time to believe all of those aircraft will deliver as currently planned.

轉向艦隊。第四季度，我們接收了20架波音MAX和4架空中巴士A321飛機。展望 2024 年，我們計劃交付的飛機總數為 107 架，其中 31 架已最大限度交付。目前相信所有這些飛機都會按目前的計劃交付是不切實際的。

We also have 277 MAX 10 aircraft on order through the remainder of the decade and an additional 200 auctions for MAX 10 aircraft. We are monitoring Boeing's progress towards certification and acting closely. At this time, our current aircraft delivery schedule would lead to a total CapEx of approximately $9 billion in 2024. But given the MAX 9 grounding and the continued supply chain issues, there is a downward bias to our 2024 spend. We also expect a reduction in orders and deliveries from Boeing in 2025. This will require reworking of our fleet plan, and we will share the details when that work is complete.

在這十年的剩餘時間內，我們還訂購了 277 架 MAX 10 飛機，並另外進行了 200 架 MAX 10 飛機拍賣。我們正在監控波音公司的認證進展並密切採取行動。目前，我們目前的飛機交付計畫將導致 2024 年的總資本支出約為 90 億美元。但考慮到 MAX 9 停飛和持續的供應鏈問題，我們 2024 年的支出存在下行傾向。我們還預計 2025 年波音的訂單和交付量將減少。這將需要重新制定我們的機隊計劃，我們將在工作完成後分享詳細資訊。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $16.1 billion in liquidity, including our undrawn revolver. Our adjusted net debt to EBITDAR was 2.9x, consistent with our leverage target of less than 3x provided at the start of the year. Managing the business towards positive free cash flow will be a top priority for our team over the coming years. Our stock is deeply undervalued, trading at less than 4x earnings despite the fact that we delivered 19.5% revenue growth and realized significant structural improvement in relative profitability in 2023.

轉向資產負債表。本季結束時，我們的流動資金為 161 億美元，其中包括未提取的左輪手槍。我們調整後的 EBITDAR 淨債務為 2.9 倍，與年初設定的低於 3 倍的槓桿目標一致。管理業務以實現正的自由現金流將是我們團隊未來幾年的首要任務。儘管我們的收入增長了 19.5%，並在 2023 年實現了相對盈利能力的顯著結構性改善，但我們的股票被嚴重低估，市盈率不到 4 倍。

But we also understand the generating free cash flow consistently even while we execute our United Next strategy is an important component to increasing our valuation. 2023 marked the first full year of United Next plan. We are throwing some curve balls, but we adapted quickly and exited the year stronger than ever. It's clear that when customers are given a choice, they are choosing United. You can see it clearly in our revenue and margin performance relative to the industry.

但我們也明白，即使在執行 United Next 策略時，持續產生自由現金流也是提高估值的重要組成部分。 2023 年是 United Next 計畫的第一個完整年。我們正在拋出一些曲線球，但我們很快就適應了，並比以往任何時候都更強大地結束了這一年。很明顯，當客戶有選擇時，他們會選擇美聯航。您可以從我們相對於行業的收入和利潤率表現中清楚地看到這一點。

Finally, I'm happy to announce we will be hosting an Investor Day on May 1st in Chicago. We plan to provide an update on our progress with the United Next plan and introduce some of the United tailwinds that will drive continued margin expansion and sustainable free cash flow. I'm encouraged by our results in a relative momentum, and I'm looking forward to delivering another solid year for our employees, customers and shareholders.

最後，我很高興地宣布我們將於 5 月 1 日在芝加哥舉辦投資者日。我們計劃提供有關 United Next 計劃的最新進展，並介紹一些將推動利潤率持續擴張和可持續自由現金流的美聯航有利因素。我對我們的相對勢頭的業績感到鼓舞，我期待為我們的員工、客戶和股東帶來另一個堅實的一年。

With that, I will pass it over to Kristina to start the Q&A.

接下來，我將把它交給克里斯蒂娜來開始問答。

Thanks, Mike. We will now take questions from the analyst community. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝，麥克。我們現在將回答分析師群體的問題。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) We will go to the first caller in queue. Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們將接聽隊列中的第一個呼叫者。摩根士丹利的拉維‧尚克。

So maybe Scott, you said at the start that you saw pressure on your 2023 capacity and I think you kind of went through your order book and said there's downward pressure there expected as well. Does this want to make you look at the long-term United Next growth plans and kind of what can be practically achieved in the coming years? Is that something you can expect during the Investor Day?

所以史考特，你一開始就說過，你看到了 2023 年產能的壓力，我認為你仔細檢查了你的訂單簿，並表示預計也會面臨下行壓力。這是否想讓您了解 United Next 的長期成長計畫以及未來幾年可以實際實現的目標？這是您在投資者日期間可以期待的事情嗎？

Robbie, this is Mike. Look, the reality is that with the with the MAX grounding, this is the kind of straw that broke the camels back, with believing that the MAX 10 will deliver on the schedule we had hoped for. And so we're working through an alternate plan. We do expect our growth rate to slow in coming years.

羅比，這是麥克。看，事實是，隨著 MAX 的落地，這就是壓垮駱駝的最後一根稻草，我們相信 MAX 10 會如期交付我們所希望的。所以我們正在製定一個替代計劃。我們確實預計未來幾年我們的成長率將會放緩。

The United Next plan is firmly on track. It will take a little longer to get there. And we're working on alternate plans to see how much higher we can elevate the growth with the MAX 10 app. Now we're still counting on Boeing, and we're monitoring the MAX 10 closely, and we're rooting and we'll do everything we can to help that aircraft get certified. It's a great aircraft. But we can't count on it, and so we're working on alternate plans. The details we'll share when we have them. I hope we'll have more by the first quarter conference call, and we'll certainly have a fulsome update for you by our May 1 Investor Day.

United Next 計畫正堅定地走上正軌。到達那裡需要更長的時間。我們正在製定替代計劃，看看我們可以透過 MAX 10 應用程式將成長提升多少。現在我們仍然指望波音公司，我們正在密切關注 MAX 10，我們將竭盡全力幫助該飛機獲得認證。這是一架很棒的飛機。但我們不能指望它，所以我們正在製定替代計劃。當我們掌握這些細節時，我們會分享這些細節。我希望我們能在第一季度電話會議之前獲得更多信息，並且我們一定會在 5 月 1 日投資者日之前為您提供豐富的最新信息。

Very helpful. And maybe as a quick follow-up. I think you guys have said Asia can be pretty decent kind of as it comes back. I think you guys were profitable on the China routes prior to the pandemic. Correct me if I'm wrong. Do you think Asia margins can be better than before? And is that a temporary demand catch up? Or do you think that's sustainable kind of in the new normal?

很有幫助。也許作為一個快速的後續行動。我想你們已經說過，亞洲回歸後會變得相當不錯。我認為在大流行之前你們在中國航線上是盈利的。如我錯了請糾正我。您認為亞洲的利潤率會比以前更好嗎？這是暫時的需求趕上嗎？或者您認為這在新常態下是可持續的嗎？

It's Andrew. As we rebuilt Asia, we definitely wanted to rebuild it. So it has sustainably higher margins than it did pre-pandemic. And we've gone about that, I think, very carefully. We're back to our pre-pandemic size, which is nice at this point. And China was profitable for us pre-pandemic, although it was not our highest margin climb to be fair.

是安德魯。當我們重建亞洲時，我們絕對想重建它。因此，它的利潤率持續高於疫情前。我認為我們已經非常仔細地解決了這個問題。我們回到了大流行前的規模，目前這很好。在疫情大流行前，中國對我們來說是有利可圖的，儘管公平地說，這並不是我們最高的利潤率攀升。

As we bring it all back, our goal is to make sure that the Asia Pacific entity produces margins that are similar to that across the rest of our global network. And I think that at least in 2023, Asia Pacific is well ahead. I do expect things to move around a bit, particularly as more China flights come back online. But I think we're particularly bullish about what Asia looks like going forward. We added a lot of capacity in the quarter, we are absorbing it, and we expect in Q2 and Q3, that capacity is going to do very well. So very bullish about the long-term prospects in Asia post-pandemic.

當我們把這一切帶回來時，我們的目標是確保亞太地區實體的利潤率與我們全球網路其他地區的利潤率相似。我認為至少到 2023 年，亞太地區遙遙領先。我確實預計情況會有所改善，特別是隨著更多中國航班恢復營運。但我認為我們特別看好亞洲的未來。我們在本季增加了大量產能，我們正在吸收它，我們預計在第二季和第三季度，這些產能將表現得非常好。因此非常看好亞洲疫情後的長期前景。

Jamie Baker from JPMorgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的傑米貝克。

Fair enough. Good morning, everybody. First one for Andrew. So you said the 20% revenue increase for Basic Economy. What can you tell us about the composition of that growth is -- with some percentage MileagePlus members trading down? Is some percentage stimulation of brand-new demand from scratch? Is some percentage share shift from LMAs. I guess the simpler question is who's driving the growth?

很公平。大家早安。第一個是給安德魯的。所以你說基礎經濟艙的收入增加 20%。您能告訴我們關於這種成長的組成是什麼嗎？某些前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 會員的交易量下降了？一定比例的刺激是從頭開始的全新需求嗎？ LMA 的份額是否發生了一定的變化。我想更簡單的問題是誰在推動成長？

I think it's largely a share shift, Jamie. We developed Basic Economy numerous years ago now and have been refining how we sell it, how we distribute it and that product. And it's an important product in our lineup. We do focus a lot on premium, but we know we need to be competitive across the whole range of needs that are customers have in our hubs and that required a competitive Basic Economy product that we could do profitably.

我認為這主要是股份的轉移，傑米。我們多年前就開發了基礎經濟，並一直在改進我們的銷售方式、分銷方式和產品。它是我們產品陣容中的重要產品。我們確實非常注重溢價，但我們知道我們需要在滿足客戶在我們中心的所有需求方面具有競爭力，這需要我們能夠盈利的有競爭力的基礎經濟產品。

And as we look at the data, we think the biggest change here is as we've increased our gauge, we've been able to attract more and more market share across the board. But in particular, we've been able to attract more of it from some of the low-cost carriers out there. So we're really pleased with this development, and it's given us every indication that we should continue to push forward as our gauge increases, we'll be able to more effectively take on that traffic and grow our share base even more.

當我們查看數據時，我們認為最大的變化是隨著我們增加了指標，我們已經能夠全面吸引越來越多的市場份額。但特別是，我們已經能夠從一些廉價航空公司那裡吸引更多的乘客。因此，我們對這一發展感到非常滿意，它向我們提供了一切跡象，表明我們應該繼續推進，隨著我們的指標增加，我們將能夠更有效地承擔這些流量並進一步擴大我們的份額基礎。

Okay. And then for Mike, it was a couple of years ago, in fact, it might have been, like, almost 2 years to the day that there were press reports that you are -- United was looking at monetizing a portion of MileagePlus. And then things subsequently went pretty quiet on that front.

好的。然後對麥克來說，那是幾年前的事了，事實上，可能已經過去了差不多兩年了，直到有媒體報道稱，曼聯正在考慮將前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 的一部分貨幣化。然後這方面的事情隨後變得相當安靜。

So a couple of questions. First is, is loyalty as important to United as it is to Delta? Delta's leading so hard into this topic on its calls. And second, any thoughts on how United or the broader industry might get investors to value this cash flow at a higher multiple? And if the answer is no, I'm happy to see the floor.

有幾個問題。首先，忠誠度對於美聯航和達美航空同樣重要嗎？達美航空在其電話會議上大力探討了這個主題。其次，對於美聯航或更廣泛的行業如何讓投資者以更高的倍數估值現金流有什麼想法嗎？如果答案是否定的，我很高興見到大家。

Jamie, thank you. I appreciate the question. This is something I'm very passionate about. MileagePlus is a crown jewel in the businesses we have here at United Airlines. We've made some significant progress towards growing that business. We have a new leader in Richard Nunn.

傑米，謝謝你。我很欣賞這個問題。這是我非常熱衷的事。前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 是聯合航空業務皇冠上的明珠。我們在發展該業務方面取得了一些重大進展。我們有一位新領導人理查德·納恩。

We have significant projects underway around data and how we can create a better customer experience and monetize that data, simultaneous. And you can expect a very fulsome update on the May 1 Investor Day. We do have ideas on how to bring the market attention up to the value and the higher premium multiple that those earnings should trade at. And we have several options, and we'll share more when we're ready to share more. But we've discussed some of those, some of those have been written about the analyst reports. And if the value is not recognized in our carriers, we will take actions to highlight that value in the future -- in the near future.

我們正在進行一些圍繞數據以及如何創造更好的客戶體驗並同時透過數據貨幣化的重要項目。您可以在 5 月 1 日投資者日期待非常豐富的更新。我們確實有一些想法，如何讓市場專注於這些收益應該交易的價值和更高的溢價倍數。我們有多種選擇，當我們準備好分享更多時，我們會分享更多。但我們已經討論了其中一些，其中一些是關於分析師報告的。如果我們的運營商不認可這一價值，我們將在不久的將來採取行動來強調這一價值。

Michael Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Michael Linenberg。

Can you guys hear me now? Great. Just getting back to, I guess, Scott, on the issue with the MAX 10, at least, fortunately, in the case of United, you do have a choice. You're a very large operator of the Airbus product as well as the Boeing narrow-body product.

你們現在聽得到我說話嗎？偉大的。回到斯科特，我想，關於 MAX 10 的問題，至少幸運的是，就曼聯而言，你確實有選擇。您是空中巴士產品以及波音窄體產品的大型營運商。

As we think about the issues with supply chain and constraints across the OEM space, is there at some point where you're thinking that it's -- given the size of United that it would be prudent to consider a wide-body from another OEM. Right now, it looks like the 787 is the future for United from a wide-body perspective, but you still have that A350 order out there. Has your thinking on that changed?

當我們思考供應鏈問題和整個 OEM 領域的限制時，您是否會在某個時候認為考慮到美聯航的規模，考慮使用其他 OEM 的寬體客機是明智的做法。目前，從寬體飛機的角度來看，787 似乎是美聯航的未來，但 A350 訂單仍然存在。你對此的看法有改變嗎？

Mike, thanks for the question. The A350 is an incredible aircraft. We have a significant order book for 787s right now, and we have a mix of 777 aircraft, some are relatively older and a subfleet is quite young. As we look into the 2030's, the A350 is an aircraft that we are looking at. We don't have any new news to share with you today, but the timing will be that early part of the next decade.

麥克，謝謝你的提問。 A350 是一架令人難以置信的飛機。我們目前擁有大量 787 訂單，我們擁有多種 777 飛機，其中一些飛機相對較老，而支機隊則相當年輕。當我們展望 2030 年代時，A350 是我們關注的飛機。今天我們沒有任何新消息可以與您分享，但時間將是下一個十年的初期。

Great. And then just a quick follow-up back to what Jamie brought up on Basic Economy, the 20% increase is obviously pretty significant. But last quarter, you were up 50%. And the question is, is that just a function of a more difficult comp? Or did you actively pull back on inventory of Basic Economy just given the surge that we've seen on the cost side? And back to your point about sort of trying to maintain that gap between CASM and RASM?

偉大的。然後快速跟進 Jamie 在基礎經濟中提出的內容，20% 的成長顯然相當可觀。但上個季度，您上漲了 50%。問題是，這只是更困難的比賽的一個功能嗎？或者考慮到我們在成本方面看到的激增，您是否主動減少了基礎經濟的庫存？回到你關於試圖維持 CASM 和 RASM 之間差距的觀點？

It's Andrew. No, we didn't pull back on it for that reason. And remember, these are year-over-year comps, but you have to consider the math of what we did last year. We're very bullish about Basic. We're also very bullish about the premium. And the point is, we have a really great diversified revenue stream across all of our cabins as we try to decommoditize our product. We are really hopeful that we'll continue to drive increasing volumes in basic it seems to be having the appropriate P&L effect at United and competitive effect across the industry. So it's something we want to do more of, not less of. And so you should expect that.

是安德魯。不，我們並沒有因為這個原因而撤回。請記住，這些是逐年比較，但您必須考慮我們去年所做的數學計算。我們非常看好Basic。我們也非常看好溢價。關鍵是，當我們試圖將我們的產品去商品化時，我們的所有客艙都擁有非常多元化的收入來源。我們真的希望我們能夠繼續推動銷量的成長，因為這似乎對美聯航產生了適當的損益效應，並對整個產業產生了競爭效應。因此，我們希望在這方面做得更多，而不是更少。所以你應該預料到這一點。

Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

Melius Research 的康納·坎寧安 (Conor Cunningham)。

I'm a little confused on the comment between -- on the link between CASM and RASM. I would have thought that would have been the case before. So I'm just trying to understand what's changed. Is it that you're being -- like just better at predicting outcomes? Or is it really more of an industry comment that you're trying to drive from here?

我對 CASM 和 RASM 之間的聯繫的評論有點困惑。我以為以前也會如此。所以我只是想了解發生了什麼變化。是不是你比較會預測結果？或者這實際上更像是您試圖從這裡推動的行業評論？

It's really an industry comment. In the past, if United had -- if any airline, including United, had CASM going up, while others had CASM going down, the price is the lowest common denominator. So it's an industry comment. As industry -- just like fuel. Anything that affects the whole industry is a pass-through. If it affects one airline, it's not, but if it affects all airlines, it's a pass through, that was -- we were sitting in this room a year ago, and maybe we didn't do it articulately, but that was the point we were trying to make, and that is exactly what happened. And it is what's going to happen going forward.

這確實是一個行業評論。過去，如果聯合航空——如果包括聯合航空在內的任何航空公司的 CASM 上升，而其他航空公司的 CASM 下降，那麼價格就是最低的共同點。所以這是一個行業評論。作為工業——就像燃料一樣。任何影響整個產業的事情都是一種傳遞。如果它影響到一家航空公司，那就不是，但如果它影響到所有航空公司，那就是穿越，也就是說——我們一年前坐在這個房間裡，也許我們沒有明確地做到這一點，但這就是重點我們試圖做到這一點，而這正是發生的事情。這就是未來將會發生的事情。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then it was a little unclear in the prepared remarks. I'm just trying -- does your outlook for costs include accruals for open labor contracts? And just what are the risks that you see for the cost plan in 2024?

好的。我很感激。然後準備好的發言有點不清楚。我只是想——您的成本前景是否包括開放式勞動合約的應計費用？您認為 2024 年成本計畫有哪些風險？

Conor, this is Mike. We include our expectations for all labor agreements in our pace.

康納，這是麥克。我們將對所有勞工協議的期望納入我們的進度中。

Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs.

高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks so much for the time. I might stick with the cost side, just following on Conor's quickly here. Versus your low single-digit ex-MAX impact CASM-ex guide for the first quarter. How do we think about the puts and takes through year-end versus that level of CASM-ex inflation?

大家，早安。非常感謝您抽出時間。我可能會堅持成本方面，只是在這裡快速關注康納。與第一季的低個位數前 MAX 影響 CASM-ex 指南。我們如何看待年底的賣權和賣出選擇權與 CASM 通膨水準的比較？

Before today, I was originally assuming growth would decelerate over course of the year, but CASM-ex comp fees, each quarter in my model ended up looking pretty similar on a year-over-year basis, ex-MAX impacting the 1Q. Is that a fair way to think about it? Or is there more lumpiness than that, that I'm missing? And then I guess, just to put a finer point on one question, does 1Q and full year EPS include any flight attendant accrual?

在今天之前，我最初假設成長會在一年中放緩，但我的模型中每季的 CASM 補償費用最終看起來與去年同期非常相似，不包括 MAX 影響第一季。這是一個公平的思考方式嗎？或者還有比這更多的塊狀，我錯過了嗎？然後我想，為了更好地解決一個問題，第一季和全年每股收益是否包括任何空服員應計費用？

So Catie, let me take the last question first. We include our expectations for labor agreements in our guidance. Full stop.

凱蒂，讓我先回答最後一個問題。我們將對勞工協議的期望納入我們的指導中。句號。

Regarding CASM trends in Q2 and 3 and 4, you would expect the MAX headwind to go away. We do think we're getting closer to seeing that aircraft fly. Again, you would see some United-specific tailwinds with some gauge increase, although with slowing deliveries, that gauge increase in '24 will be less than we would have expected. You will see continued pressure from labor of about 3 to 4 points. That's an industry headwind for CASM-ex, not unique to United. We expect it will lead to higher TRASM to offset, but you should continue to see that we will lap the majority of that as we enter into the fourth quarter.

關於第二季、第三季和第四季的 CASM 趨勢，您預計 MAX 逆風將會消失。我們確實認為我們距離看到飛機飛行越來越近了。同樣，您會看到一些特定於美聯航的順風車，並會出現一些軌距增加，儘管隨著交付速度放緩，24 年的軌距增加將低於我們的預期。您將看到約 3 至 4 點的持續分娩壓力。這是 CASM-ex 面臨的產業逆風，並非美聯航獨有。我們預計這將導致更高的 TRASM 來抵消，但您應該繼續看到，當我們進入第四季度時，我們將完成其中的大部分。

And then maintenance headwind of about 1 point, that's going to be lumpy quarter-to-quarter. As I sit here today, I think it's about 1 point in each of the quarters. this year. At some point, the supply chain will fix itself in aerospace, but we don't see that today. And I think it probably takes well beyond 2024. So you should think about -- to summarize, you should think about the labor and maintenance headwinds as being persistent.

然後，維護逆風約為 1 個點，這將是季度與季度之間的不穩定。當我今天坐在這裡時，我認為每個季度大約是 1 分。今年。在某種程度上，航空航太領域的供應鏈將會自行修復，但我們今天還沒有看到這一點。我認為這可能需要遠遠超過 2024 年。所以你應該考慮——總而言之，你應該考慮勞動力和維護方面的不利因素是持續存在的。

Got it. Very clear. And maybe just sticking with you, Mike, the $9 million CapEx figure that's tied to your contractual commitments, unless I've got that wrong. Even as of your last 10-Q before the MAX grounding, you were expecting 17% less aircraft than the contractual amount. I guess there's probably more downside reset today, given what's going on with the MAX, but in order of magnitude, does that delta between expected and contractual deliveries largely flipped how we should think about downside risk on a dollar basis versus that $9 billion?

知道了。非常清楚。也許只是堅持你，麥克，與你的合約承諾相關的 900 萬美元資本支出數字，除非我弄錯了。即使截至 MAX 停飛前的最後 10 個季度，您預計飛機數量仍比合約數量少 17%。我想，考慮到MAX 的情況，今天可能會有更多的下行重置，但從數量級來看，預期交付量和合約交付量之間的增量是否在很大程度上改變了我們對美元下行風險的看法，而不是90 億美元？

That delta between contractual and expected is growing. And we don't know exactly where it's settled yet. That's what we're working through now. and we are working on an alternate strategy to mitigate some of the loss in growth. But yes, as you're thinking about CapEx coming below $9 billion this year, and the trajectory for maybe lower than what you would expect CapEx in '25 and beyond. That's how you should think about it.

合約和預期之間的差距正在擴大。我們還不知道它到底在哪裡定居。這就是我們現在正在努力解決的問題。我們正在製定替代策略，以減輕部分成長損失。但是，是的，當你考慮到今年的資本支出將低於 90 億美元時，並且其軌跡可能低於你對 25 年及以後資本支出的預期。這就是你應該如何思考的。

Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的斯科特小組。

So Mike, I totally get your message that the plan is fluid and flexible. But as it stands today, I'm just wondering, do you think RASM is going to be positive this year? And then maybe just -- can you help us just think about shaping the year a little bit. So if I look at last year, had a pretty massive second quarter and then moderation in the second half of the year. Are you thinking a similar shape or maybe more back half weighted? Any color there would be helpful.

麥克，我完全理解你的意思，即該計劃是流暢且靈活的。但就目前情況而言，我只是想知道，您認為今年的 RASM 會是積極的嗎？然後也許只是——你能幫助我們思考如何塑造這一年嗎？因此，如果我看看去年，第二季的表現相當強勁，下半年則有所放緩。您是否正在考慮類似的形狀或可能更後半配重？任何顏色都會有幫助。

Scott, I'll kick it off and say, yes, we think TRASM for the year will be positive, but the details will come from Andrew.

斯科特，我首先要說的是，是的，我們認為今年的 TRASM 將會是積極的，但詳細信息將來自安德魯。

Well, we're not giving exact guidance here other than, yes, we're very bullish on the year. I think I laid out a business case where domestic is starting the year incredibly strong. I think we've laid out a business case for where we're going to do with trans-Atlantic capacity. And I do expect Asia capacity to step down materially as we head into Q2 and then Q3, which is obviously going to bolster those numbers, too. So I remain bullish on the year.

好吧，我們不會在這裡給出確切的指導，除了，是的，我們對今年非常樂觀。我認為我提出了一個商業案例，國內今年年初的表現異常強勁。我認為我們已經為我們將如何利用跨大西洋運力製定了一個商業案例。我確實預計，隨著進入第二季度和第三季度，亞洲產能將大幅下降，這顯然也會提振這些數字。所以我仍然看好今年。

Mike, I don't know if you had any thoughts on shaping the year for us, if you have any color. And then maybe just my other follow-up just for Andrew. Just on the point about domestic and international margins converging a little bit this year. Maybe just -- I just want to make sure I'm understanding it. Is this domestic getting better in international a little less good? Or is it they're both improving, but domestic is improving more? Just any additional color there would be great.

麥克，我不知道你對為我們塑造這一年有什麼想法，如果你有什麼顏色的話。然後也許只是我對安德魯的另一個後續行動。就在今年國內和國際利潤率略有趨同的問題上。也許只是——我只是想確保我理解它。難道國內好一點了國際就差一點了嗎？或者說他們都在進步，但國內進步更多？只要有任何額外的顏色就會很棒。

Look, I think we're seeing -- I hate to say the word exceptional, but we're seeing really good strength in domestic right now, and I expect that's going to narrow the gap. International margins are well ahead of domestic margins in 2023, and they'll continue to be well ahead of domestic margins in 2024. But I do think that gap will narrow a bit based on the RASM outlook that I'm looking at, again, which is pretty darn good for domestic.

聽著，我認為我們正在看到——我不想說「卓越」這個詞，但我們現在看到國內的實力確實很強，我預計這將縮小差距。到 2023 年，國際利潤率將遠遠領先於國內利潤率，到 2024 年，它們將繼續遠遠領先於國內利潤率。但我確實認為，根據我再次關注的 RASM 前景，差距將會縮小一些，這對國內來說非常好。

Yes. Maybe I'll take the seasonal shape in as well. We're working very diligently to make Q1 a more profitable quarter for United. I think we are well on our way prior to the MAX grounding. And obviously, if you take that out, you can use that to update the estimates as to where we would have been in Q1, we made a lot of changes to how we fly in Q1, and we didn't talk about all those details. But when I look at our RASM trends, particularly in domestic, I am now confident that all those changes had the desired effect.

是的。也許我也會採用季節性形狀。我們正在非常努力地工作，以使第一季成為曼聯盈利能力更強的季度。我認為在 MAX 接地之前我們已經走得很順利了。顯然，如果你把它去掉，你可以用它來更新我們在第一季度的情況的估計，我們對第一季度的飛行方式做了很多改變，我們沒有談論所有這些細節。但當我看到我們的 RASM 趨勢時，特別是在國內，我現在相信所有這些變化都達到了預期的效果。

As we continue to build and make sure that in the future, Q1 can -- well, it won't ever be our best quarter to be blunt, that it will be a much better relative quarter. But our global network, I have to say in Q2 and Q3 really stands out, and we expect it to be stellar again over those 6 months in 2024.

隨著我們繼續建設並確保在未來，第一季可以 - 好吧，坦率地說，它永遠不會是我們最好的季度，這將是一個相對更好的季度。但我必須說，我們的全球網路在第二季和第三季確實表現出色，我們預計它在 2024 年的這 6 個月中將再次表現出色。

Scott, just specifically asking about the shape of our quarterly earnings through the year. It's going to look like a normal seasonal pattern, albeit with a slightly bigger loss in the first quarter due to MAX 9 grounding.

斯科特，只是特別詢問我們全年季度收益的情況。這看起來就像正常的季節性模式，儘管由於 MAX 9 停飛，第一季的損失略大。

Helane Becker of Cowen.

考恩的海蘭·貝克爾。

Great. So here's my 2 questions. The first question is, as you think about 2026 margins, and maybe you'll update us on May 1, how do we bridge from the roughly 8% at year-end '23 to, say, 12% to 14% in 2026?

偉大的。這是我的兩個問題。第一個問題是，當您考慮 2026 年的利潤率時，也許您會在 5 月 1 日向我們通報最新情況，我們如何從 23 年底的大約 8% 過渡到 2026 年的 12% 到 14%？

Helane, thanks for the question. And we will update our longer-term margin targets at Investor Day. But the tailwinds that we expect from the United Next strategy, from the gauge, from the connectivity, from preference to fly United, we have proven, it used to be -- it was a strategy on a piece of paper. We have proven that it's working.

海蘭，謝謝你的提問。我們將在投資者日更新我們的長期利潤目標。但我們期望從「United Next」戰略、從儀表、從連通性、從乘坐美聯航的偏好中獲得的順風車，我們已經證明，它曾經是一個紙上談兵的戰略。我們已經證明它是有效的。

And so as we think about '24, deliveries being a little less than '25 and '26, of reaccelerating into that United Next strategy, we see just continued momentum. And so as for the specific level of 12% to 14% pacing, we're going to have to update you on May 1st. But the strategy is working, and we're very confident in an upward trajectory to both earnings and margin.

因此，當我們考慮 24 年的交付量略低於 25 年和 26 年，重新加速實施 United Next 策略時，我們看到了持續的動力。至於 12% 到 14% 節奏的具體水平，我們將不得不在 5 月 1 日向您更新。但該策略正在發揮作用，我們對獲利和利潤率的上升軌跡非常有信心。

Okay. And then just for my follow-up. Your -- I think, United Next targets, and obviously, you'll update them again, I suppose, $25 billion of adjusted net debt as of the end of last year, less than $18 billion for 2026. But the other thing is, how should we think about financing, let's just say, $9 billion is off the table for this year. Let's bring it down to $6 billion or $7 billion plus debt paydown. Like, how should we think about you getting to your target leverage over the next 1 to 3 years given the CapEx program, which might be $7 billion this year, but it might be $9 billion or $8 billion or $10 billion, '25 or '26.

好的。然後只是為了我的後續行動。我認為，United Next 的目標是，很明顯，我想，截至去年底，您將再次更新調整後的淨債務 250 億美元，到 2026 年將少於 180 億美元。但另一件事是，我們應該如何考慮融資問題，這麼說吧，今年90億美元是不可能的。讓我們將其降低到 60 億美元或 70 億美元加上債​​務償還。例如，考慮到資本支出計劃，我們應該如何考慮您在未來1 到3 年內達到目標槓桿率，今年可能為70 億美元，但也可能是90 億美元、80 億美元或100 億美元，「25 或” 26.

Yes. Let me try to give you a high-level view, Helane, and we can dig into more details in the future. But as I sit here today and I think about the changes in CapEx related to the delay in deliveries, I expect free cash to cover our CapEx in most years, if not all years.

是的。 Helane，讓我嘗試向您提供一個高層次的視圖，我們可以在將來深入研究更多細節。但當我今天坐在這裡，思考與交付延遲相關的資本支出變化時，我預計自由現金將在大多數年份（即使不是所有年份）覆蓋我們的資本支出。

And as far as additional paydown of the balance sheet, we would expect that as our margins grow into that low double-digit low-teen area that free cash flow will be quite positive, allowing us to pay down that debt. Now the pacing will be dependent on how much that CapEx profile changes and how quickly we get to what we think is that on long run, higher level of margin.

就資產負債表的額外償還而言，我們預計，隨著我們的利潤率增長到低兩位數的低青少年區域，自由現金流將相當積極，使我們能夠償還債務。現在的節奏將取決於資本支出狀況的變化程度，以及我們以多快的速度達到我們認為的長期、更高的利潤水平。

Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore.

來自 Evercore 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Just a couple for me. On international inbound, so basically international point available to the U.S. As you look across your network, how recovered is international inbound? How do you think about that growth of that demand set in 2024? And are there any markets that stick out from a recovery had room potential?

對我來說只是一對。在國際入境方面，基本上國際點可用於美國。當您查看網路時，國際入境的恢復情況如何？您如何看待 2024 年的需求成長？是否有任何市場能夠從復甦中脫穎而出並具有空間潛力？

Sure, Duane, it's Andrew. What I would say is during the entire recovery, U.S. outbound has been a stronger component of the traffic, really across the board, across the entire globe, and that continues today I think origin Europe, particularly core Europe, Germany continues to trail as well as Japan and Australia. And so we'll continue to monitor that. But the U.S. consumer has made up the difference in most regions of the world quite effectively and has resulted in very strong results over the last year.

當然，杜安，我是安德魯。我想說的是，在整個復甦過程中，美國出境旅遊一直是流量的重要組成部分，實際上是在全球範圍內，而且這種情況一直持續到今天，我認為起源於歐洲，特別是核心歐洲，德國也繼續落後如日本和澳洲。因此我們將繼續監控這一情況。但美國消費者相當有效地彌補了世界大多數地區的差異，並在去年取得了非常強勁的業績。

So I think the outlook is strong. But when the inbound customer profile starts to rebound, I think that's just further upside in the future. It hasn't happened consistently across the globe, but we'll see what 2024 brings.

所以我認為前景是光明的。但當入境客戶資料開始反彈時，我認為未來會有進一步的上升空間。這種情況在全球範圍內並沒有持續發生，但我們將看看 2024 年會發生什麼。

Okay. Just following up there. Any specific markets, maybe San Francisco, Asia inbound. Any more kind of bullish recovery thoughts there?

好的。只是跟著那裡。任何特定市場，可能是舊金山、亞洲入境市場。還有更多看漲復甦的想法嗎？

San Francisco is going to be very unique over the next 6 to 9 months. There is a significant amount of runway construction going on in San Francisco that has dramatically limited our ability to fly there. It's also consistent with a slower recovery in that city. So I think that is actually probably okay. But you will see us fly a much reduced domestic schedule in San Francisco, the international flying continues to be very strong. But the smaller domestic schedule, combined with where we are in the recovery, I think it's going to be just fine for San Francisco. In terms of profit contribution, in San Francisco, Asia continues to perform exceedingly well.

未來 6 到 9 個月，舊金山將變得非常獨特。舊金山正在進行大量的跑道建設，這極大地限制了我們在那裡飛行的能力。這也與該城市的復甦速度較慢相一致。所以我認為這實際上可能沒問題。但您會看到我們在舊金山的國內航班時刻表大大減少，國際航班仍然非常強勁。但較小的國內賽程，再加上我們所處的復甦階段，我認為這對舊金山來說會很好。就利潤貢獻而言，亞洲舊金山持續表現出色。

That will be Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

那是來自美國銀行的安德魯·迪多拉。

So Andrew, I guess you mentioned this a little bit in your prepared remarks, but we've been hearing and seeing some data on corporate travel getting a bit better as well. Can -- could you maybe dig in and speak to maybe any particular markets or verticals where you see any sort of outsized corporate growth? And have you seen this corporate growth sort of broadening out to make it maybe at a more sustainable level today than at other points in the recovery?

安德魯，我猜你在準備好的演講中提到了這一點，但我們已經聽到並看到一些有關商務旅行的數據也有所改善。您能否深入挖掘並談論您看到任何超大規模企業成長的特定市場或垂直領域？您是否看到這種企業成長有所擴大，使其今天可能比復甦中的其他時期更永續？

Sure. We've all sat on calls and predicted the recovery of business graphic more times than I can count over the last few years. And I will say, Q4 was okay. It wasn't spectacular in any way. But as we started January in the new budget season for all of our big corporate clients, we did notice a significant step-up.

當然。在過去的幾年裡，我們都參加過電話會議並預測商業圖形的復甦，次數多到我都數不清。我會說，第四季還不錯。無論如何，這並不引人注目。但隨著我們所有大企業客戶的新預算季節從一月開始，我們確實注意到了顯著的進步。

So it's really early. It's only been a few weeks, and I hesitate to say, "Oh my gosh, it's fixed." Because it's still well behind where it should be relative to GDP growth, of course, but look, it's a really nice step up. We're seeing close in yield gains as well that result from that. And I think that's one of the reasons our domestic RASM outlook is as strong as it is. And so hopefully, that continues. At the end of the quarter, of course, we'll report on that and let you know how it looks. But at least for the first 2 weeks of January, we've gotten off to a really strong start, and it gives us increasing signs that this is going to be, I think, a very good year.

所以現在確實還早。才過了幾個星期，我就猶豫地說：“天哪，它修好了。”當然，因為相對於 GDP 成長來說，它仍然遠遠落後於應有的水平，但你看，這是一個非常好的進步。我們也看到由此產生的收益率收益也接近成長。我認為這就是我們國內 RASM 前景如此強勁的原因之一。希望這種情況能夠持續下去。當然，在季度末，我們會對此進行報告並讓您知道情況如何。但至少在一月份的前兩週，我們有了一個非常強勁的開局，並且越來越多的跡象表明，我認為這將是非常好的一年。

Got it. That's helpful. And then for my second question, Mike, you have obviously a lot of talk on the call just on your real future free cash flow potential. Just when you're looking at your free cash flow, when do you anticipate you will become a cash taxpayer?

知道了。這很有幫助。對於我的第二個問題，麥克，您顯然在電話會議上就您未來的真實自由現金流潛力進行了很多討論。當您查看自由現金流時，您預計什麼時候會成為現金納稅人？

Andrew, I think it's a few years off still, let me get with my treasurer, Pam Hendry, and follow up with you all on the precise year. It does depend on -- are -- it does depend on how CapEx moderates, and it depends on that profitability, but it's still a few years off.

安德魯，我想還需要幾年的時間，讓我和我的財務主管帕姆·亨德利聯繫，並與你們一起跟進具體年份。它確實取決於——是——它確實取決於資本支出如何調節，也取決於盈利能力，但這仍然需要幾年的時間。

Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布蘭登‧奧格倫斯基。

Just keep it to one here at the end of the call. But maybe Scott or Mike, I mean coming back to the context that your stock is trading like 3 or 4x P/E probably for the second year here, and also giving you guys credit because I know a lot of us didn't think you could hit those United Next targets so many years out. But you are guiding to roughly flat margins at the midpoint this year. And I think what investors are worried about is things you can control or at least perceived control like costs that are going up for the industry here.

只需在通話結束時將其保留為此處的 1 即可。但也許史考特或麥克，我的意思是回到你的股票交易的背景，你的股票可能是第二年的本益比3 或4 倍，也給予你們信任，因為我知道我們很多人都不認為你們多年後就能實現 United Next 的目標。但今年中期的利潤率預計大致持平。我認為投資者擔心的是你可以控制的事情，或至少是可以控制的事情，例如該行業正在上升的成本。

Is this just a continued view that United is going to decouple from industry trends where you're going to be able to drive margin premium? And I guess what can you give investors confidence that, that is the path forward here?

這是否只是一種持續的觀點，即美聯航將與產業趨勢脫鉤，推動利潤率溢價？我想你可以給投資人甚麼信心，讓他們相信這就是前進的道路？

Thanks, Brandon. Look, I think that it's a structural change in the industry, and we see a ton of evidence in this year, and I think eventually, the investment community, we'll see it as well. But there is -- an industry that has operated as a commodity industry and United and one of our legacy peers have clearly differentiated ourselves from the path. And that's leading customers to choose to fly our airlines, it's leading to the majority, if not all, of the revenue growth in the industry accruing to those 2 airlines, and that is happening simultaneous with cost convergence.

謝謝，布蘭登。聽著，我認為這是行業的結構性變化，今年我們看到了大量證據，我認為投資界最終也會看到這一點。但有一個行業是作為商品行業運營的，而聯合航空和我們的傳統同行之一已經明顯地將自己與這條道路區分開來。這導致客戶選擇搭乘我們的航空公司的航班，這導致行業中大部分（如果不是全部）收入成長都歸於這兩家航空公司，而這與成本趨同同時發生。

That cost convergence, the whole reason that the low-cost carriers existed was for -- is because they had lower costs. Those lower costs no longer exist. And so that creates, I think, a permanence to the higher margin, a sustainability to that higher margin. And where that settles, we still -- (inaudible) exactly where that us. But it is higher and more stable and more resilient and that is not recognized by the capital markets today.

廉價航空公司存在的全部原因就是成本趨同，因為它們的成本更低。那些較低的成本已不復存在。因此，我認為，這創造了更高利潤率的持久性、更高利潤率的可持續性。不管怎樣，我們仍然－（聽不清楚）我們的位置。但它更高、更穩定、更有彈性，這一點並沒有得到今天資本市場的認可。

David Bernstein from -- David Vernon from Bernstein.

大衛·伯恩斯坦（David Bernstein）－來自伯恩斯坦的大衛·弗農（David Vernon）。

So Andrew, I'd like to get some help from you if you can, in terms of helping to think through how some of the negative margin capacity that's going to be forced out of the industry is going to impact your fare ladder. Beyond the upward pressure sort of general maintenance, I'm just trying to like understand if we see a bunch of basic capacity rationalized because some of these negative margin unbundled carriers have to take capacity out.

所以安德魯，如果可以的話，我想從你那裡得到一些幫助，幫助思考一些將被迫退出行業的負利潤產能將如何影響你的票價階梯。除了一般維護的上行壓力之外，我只是想了解我們是否看到大量基本運力合理化，因為其中一些負利潤的非捆綁運營商必須取消運力。

Is that -- how is that going to impact sort of basic fares versus economy fares, anything you could give us to help translate that impact of capacity shift into what sort of impact it's going to have on your fare ladder would be really helpful.

這將如何影響基本票價與經濟票價，您可以向我們提供的任何幫助我們將運力轉移的影響轉化為它將對您的票價階梯產生什麼樣的影響的信息都將非常有幫助。

I mean I think that's probably a lot more detail than I can do on a conference call, to be honest. But just generally, unproductive capacity has been leaving the system. I think that's been good for the system and good for United. And so we'll manage our RM like we normally do to take advantage of all of the opportunities.

老實說，我認為這可能比我在電話會議上能講到的細節要多得多。但總的來說，非生產性產能已經離開了系統。我認為這對整個體系和曼聯都有好處。因此，我們將像平常一樣管理 RM，以利用所有機會。

But I just want to reiterate that our choice to diversify our revenues at the top of Polaris and at the bottom of Basic Economy is not something we're going to be giving up on. The Basic Economy is an important part of the airline. It is what our customers want. We will continue to provide choice. And we expect to provide more and more of it as our gauge increases. The competitive dynamics are what they are, I can't predict them. I only really can talk for United, and we'll obviously maximize our returns and do the right thing.

但我只是想重申，我們不會放棄在北極星頂部和基礎經濟底部實現收入多元化的選擇。基礎經濟艙是航空公司的重要組成部分。這就是我們的客戶想要的。我們將繼續提供選擇。隨著我們的規格增加，我們預計會提供越來越多的服務。競爭動態就是這樣，我無法預測。我只能代表曼聯說話，我們顯然會最大化我們的回報並做正確的事情。

But again, the diversified revenue streams that we're putting out there are really working for us across not only the fare ladder but our geographic dispersion of our flying. And so we couldn't be more pleased with our revenue results quarter after quarter, by the way, not just in Q4 and not just last year, and the outlook we have. If the industry is dynamic, it's always changing, we'll change with it. But it is, I think, a good time to be at United Airlines and be an investor in United Airlines.

但同樣，我們提供的多元化收入來源不僅在票價階梯上，而且在我們飛行的地理分佈上，確實對我們有用。因此，順便說一句，我們對每個季度的收入結果都非常滿意，不僅是第四季度，不僅是去年，還有我們的前景。如果這個產業是動態的，它總是在變化，我們也會跟著改變。但我認為，現在是加入聯合航空並成為聯合航空投資者的好時機。

And are you seeing any sort of benefit yet from some of that capacity rationalization as you look forward into to forward bookings? Or do you think that's something that's going to develop as we get through the year?

當您期待提前預訂時，您是否看到了一些運力合理化帶來的任何好處？或者你認為這一年會有所發展嗎？

Look, I think our outlook for Q1 for domestic PRASM says it all.

看，我認為我們對國內 PRASM 第一季的展望說明了一切。

We will now switch to the media portion of the call. (Operator Instructions) David Slotnick of The Points Guy.

我們現在將切換到通話的媒體部分。 （操作員說明）The Points Guy 的 David Slotnick。

I know you talked about London and about slower growth across the Atlantic. I was wondering if you could talk a bit more from a consumer perspective. There's been some talk just about all the capacity across the Atlantic next summer. Do you see any impact on ticket prices? Do you see them going down or up, just given all that?

我知道您談到了倫敦和大西洋彼岸的成長放緩。我想知道您是否可以從消費者的角度多談談。有一些關於明年夏天跨大西洋運力的討論。您認為票價有什麼影響嗎？考慮到這一切，您認為它們會下跌還是會上漲？

David, what I would tell you is that we're prepared for an incredibly strong summer. We -- as I've said numerous times, we decided to go slow this year. We've tilted more of our capacity, particularly in Q1 to Southern Europe. And that's probably what I would say the biggest change is -- what we see with the consumer is that destinations in Spain and Italy have become more year-round destinations than seasonal. And that is new post-pandemic and we're reacting to it and moving more and more capacity out of Northern Europe, out of London Heathrow or Germany and into Southern Europe, and we'll probably do more of that again next year.

大衛，我要告訴你的是，我們已經為一個異常強勁的夏天做好了準備。正如我多次說過的，我們決定今年放慢腳步。我們已將更多產能（尤其是第一季）向南歐傾斜。我想說的最大的變化可能是——我們在消費者中看到的是，西班牙和義大利的目的地已成為全年旅遊目的地，而不是季節性目的地。這是大流行後的新情況，我們正在對此做出反應，並將越來越多的產能從北歐、倫敦希思羅機場或德國轉移到南歐，明年我們可能會再次這樣做。

In terms of the price points, I'm not going to exactly predict that at this point. We don't really talk about pricing. But I would just say, we expect a really strong summer across the Atlantic. Our capacity is not growing materially. And we think that's going to really allow us to get all of the capacity we've added over the last few years, to be mature and incredibly and solidly profitable in 2024.

就價格點而言，我目前不會準確預測。我們實際上並不談論定價。但我只想說，我們預計大西洋彼岸將會有一個非常強勁的夏季。我們的能力並沒有實質成長。我們認為，這確實能讓我們獲得過去幾年增加的所有產能，並在 2024 年實現成熟、令人難以置信且穩定的盈利。

That will be Rajesh Singh from Reuters.

這是路透社的拉傑什辛格 (Rajesh Singh)。

Scott, you made some comments on CNBC this morning that MAX grounding broke the camel's back. Do you have confidence in Boeing's current playership that it will be able to fix its problems that some people will have called the leadership into question and have faulted for all the quality problems. So do you have confidence in the current leadership?

斯科特，你今天早上在 CNBC 上發表了一些評論，稱 MAX 停飛壓垮了駱駝。您對波音目前的參與者有信心嗎？它能夠解決一些人對領導層提出質疑並指責所有品質問題的問題。那麼您對現任領導階層有信心嗎？

Boeing has a storied history and thousands of great people. They're one of the best engineering. They're one of the best technology companies in history. They've been a great American company, their biggest exporter. I have -- they're going through a rough patch right now, but I believe that Boeing is across the board from top to bottom is committed to changing and fixing it. I'm encouraging them to do it even faster. And it is going to impact United in the near term because of some of the challenges they've had, but there are great people there, and they will get it together. And we are their biggest -- will be -- at critical times, we're also their biggest cheerleader. There's no one that's a bigger supporter that wants Boeing to succeed outside of Boeing than me, and I'll do everything I can to help.

波音公司擁有悠久的歷史和成千上萬的偉人。他們是最好的工程之一。他們是歷史上最好的科技公司之一。他們是一家偉大的美國公司，也是最大的出口商。我——他們現在正在經歷一段艱難的時期，但我相信波音公司從上到下全面致力於改變和修復它。我鼓勵他們做得更快。由於曼聯遇到了一些挑戰，這將在短期內影響曼聯，但那裡有優秀的人，他們會團結起來。我們是他們最大的——將會是——在關鍵時刻，我們也是他們最大的啦啦隊。除了我之外，沒有人比我更支持波音公司成功，我將盡我所能提供幫助。

Just one clarification, Scott, about your comments about MAX 10 some people are misconstruing it that you are planning to cancel the order. Can you clarify your comments about MAX 10?

Scott，我想澄清一點，關於您對 MAX 10 的評論，有些人誤解了您計劃取消訂單。您能澄清一下您對 MAX 10 的看法嗎？

We are not canceling the order. We are taking it out of our internal plans. And so we're taking out of our internal plan. And we'll be working on what that means exactly with Boeing. But Boeing is not going to be able to meet their contractual deliveries on at least many of those airplanes. And let's leave it at that.

我們不會取消訂單。我們正在將其從我們的內部計劃中刪除。所以我們正在取消我們的內部計劃。我們將與波音一起研究這到底意味著什麼。但波音公司將無法滿足至少其中許多飛機的合約交付要求。我們就這樣吧。

And that is all the time we have for questions today. I will now turn the call back over to Kristina Edwards for closing remarks.

這就是我們今天提問的全部時間。現在我將把電話轉回給克里斯蒂娜·愛德華茲（Kristina Edwards）做總結發言。

Thanks for joining the call today. Please contact Investor or Media Relations if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

感謝您今天加入通話。如果您有任何其他問題，請聯絡投資者或媒體關係部，我們期待下季度與您交談。