聯合航空 (UAL) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the United Airlines Holdings Earnings Conference Call for the Second Quarter 2024. My name is Brianna, and I will be your conference facilitator today. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded and is copyrighted. Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed or rebroadcast without the company's permission.

早安，歡迎參加聯合航空控股公司 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）此通話正在錄音並受版權保護。請注意，未經本公司許可，不得對通話的任何部分進行錄音、轉錄或轉播。

Your participation implies your consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line. I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Kristina Edwards, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您的參與即表示您同意我們對本次通話進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，只需掛斷電話即可。現在，我將把簡報交給今天電話會議的主持人、投資者關係董事總經理 Kristina Edwards。請繼續。

Thank you, Brianna. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our website at ir.united.com. Information in yesterday's release and the remarks made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements are based upon information currently available to the company.

謝謝你，布麗安娜。大家早安，歡迎參加美聯航 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。昨天，我們發布了收益報告，可在我們的網站 ir.united.com 上取得。昨天發布的資訊和本次電話會議中的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。所有前瞻性陳述均基於公司目前掌握的資訊。

A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release, Form 10-K and 10-Q and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors. Unless otherwise noted, we will be discussing our financial metrics on a non-GAAP basis on this call. Please refer to the related definitions and reconciliations in our press release. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings release.

許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異。請參閱我們的收益報告、表格 10-K 和 10-Q 以及聯合航空控股公司和聯合航空向 SEC 提交的其他報告，以更全面地描述這些因素。除非另有說明，我們將在本次電話會議上討論非公認會計原則的財務指標。請參閱我們新聞稿中的相關定義和調節。有關這些非公認會計準則衡量標準與最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量標準的調節，請參閱我們收益發布末尾的表格。

Joining us on the call today to discuss our results and outlook are Chief Executive Officer, Scott Kirby; President, Brett Hart; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Leskinen. In addition, we have other members of the executive team on the line and available to assist in the Q&A.

執行長 Scott Kirby 今天參加了我們的電話會議，討論了我們的業績和前景。布雷特·哈特主席；執行副總裁兼首席商務官安德魯‧諾切拉；執行副總裁兼財務長 Mike Leskinen。此外，我們還有其他管理團隊成員在線上協助問答。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

現在我想把電話轉給史考特。

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you, Kristina. The United team produced another solid quarter. We did that while further sharpening our focus on improving our already strong safety culture over the last several months. Looking at a wide variety of metrics, our airline is safer than ever before with our culture rooted and constantly striving to make our airline safer for our employees and our customers.

謝謝。早上好，謝謝你，克里斯蒂娜。曼聯隊又創造了一個穩定的季度。在過去的幾個月裡，我們在做到這一點的同時，也進一步加強了對改善本已強大的安全文化的關注。從各種指標來看，我們的航空公司比以往任何時候都更安全，因為我們紮根於我們的文化，並不斷努力讓我們的航空公司對我們的員工和客戶更安全。

So we're continuing to work closely with the FAA and other partners to do exactly that. Additionally, thank you to our employees for delivering top-tier operational performance amidst challenging weather, including Hurricane Beryl in Houston, and getting our customers to their destinations safe and on time. While this is a quarter where industry capacity growth exceeded still solid demand, it was also a quarter that continued to show the industry developing along the lines that we've been anticipating for the past couple of years.

因此，我們將繼續與美國聯邦航空局和其他合作夥伴密切合作，以實現這一目標。此外，感謝我們的員工在充滿挑戰的天氣（包括休士頓的颶風貝裡爾）中提供頂級的營運績效，並讓我們的客戶安全準時到達目的地。雖然這個季度行業產能成長超過了仍然強勁的需求，但這個季度也繼續表明該行業按照我們過去幾年預期的方向發展。

The pressure other US airlines are experiencing today is due in large part to their unprofitable flying in many domestic markets. It was always inevitable that carriers would begin to cancel this unprofitable flying, and you see that happening in earnest in the second half of August in the schedules. As a result, it appears that the domestic industry capacity growth will moderate by roughly 5 points by the fourth quarter compared to where we were in the second quarter, which should provide a constructive setup as we close out the year and a particularly beneficial backdrop heading into 2025.

美國其他航空公司今天所面臨的壓力在很大程度上是由於它們在許多國內市場的飛行業務無利可圖。航空公司總是不可避免地會開始取消這種無利可圖的航班，你會在八月下半月的時刻表中看到這種情況正在認真發生。因此，與第二季度相比，到第四季度國內產業產能成長似乎將放緩約 5 個百分點，這將為我們結束今年提供建設性的準備，並提供一個特別有利的背景標題到2025年。

Since COVID began in early 2020, United has consistently been ahead of the curve on the big picture developments driving the industry. We're running the best operation in our history despite operating in the most difficult hubs in the world, Chicago, Newark and San Francisco, and despite having more exposure to the issues at Boeing than any other -- than any airline in the world. Our people are proud of United, and they have completely transformed the service and care for our customers.

自 2020 年初新冠疫情爆發以來，美聯航在推動產業發展的大局方面始終走在前列。儘管我們在芝加哥、紐瓦克和舊金山等世界上最困難的樞紐機場運營，儘管波音比世界上任何一家航空公司都更容易受到問題的影響，但我們的營運仍是歷史上最好的。我們的員工為美聯航感到自豪，他們徹底改變了對客戶的服務和關懷。

And we have the best commercial and revenue management teams in the world that are always on top of the demand environment, making strategic and technical adjustments to drive revenue. And the proof is in the pudding. We've now led the industry in domestic PRASM growth three years in a row. That cannot happen by accident. United Next was a great strategy. But a great strategy only works with great execution, and that has allowed us to structurally and permanently change our position within the industry.

我們擁有世界上最好的商業和收入管理團隊，他們始終處於需求環境的頂端，進行策略和技術調整以增加收入。證據就在布丁中。目前，我們已連續三年在國內 PRASM 成長方面處於行業領先地位。這不可能是偶然發生的。 United Next 是一個很棒的策略。但偉大的策略只有透過出色的執行才能發揮作用，這使我們能夠從結構上永久地改變我們在產業中的地位。

And while we are proud of our relative outperformance to the industry, we also know that our absolute results are all that really matter. They're solid right now, but I can already see the impact that the schedule changes are having on our advanced bookings and yields as we hit the mid-August industry capacity inflection point. And we are absolutely committed to our no-excuses philosophy and controlling what we can to hit our guidance.

雖然我們對我們相對於行業的領先表現感到自豪，但我們也知道我們的絕對結果才是真正重要的。現在它們很穩定，但我已經可以看到當我們達到 8 月中旬的行業產能轉折點時，時間表的變化對我們的提前預訂和收益率產生的影響。我們絕對致力於我們的無藉口理念，並盡我們所能控制以達到我們的指導方針。

And so while the industry is developing as we expected and our relative results are outperforming as we expected, we're not going to rely just on industry changes outside of our immediate control. We're also taking steps in the short term to ensure that we meet our targets. That includes aggressive cost management and reducing domestic capacity 300 basis points in the fourth quarter.

因此，儘管該行業正在按照我們的預期發展，並且我們的相對業績也超出了我們的預期，但我們不會僅僅依賴我們直接控制之外的行業變化。我們也在短期內採取措施，以確保實現我們的目標。其中包括積極的成本管理以及第四季將國內產能削減 300 個基點。

The industry rationalization that we expected is beginning to play out, and we've reached the inflection point. The United Next plan continues to be the winning strategy for United. And as a result, we continue to be -- to expect to be within our full year 2024 EPS guidance range of $9 to $11 despite the tough industry environment around us. And with that, I'll hand it over to Brett.

我們預期的產業合理化已經開始顯現，我們已經到了轉捩點。 United Next 計畫仍然是曼聯的致勝戰略。因此，儘管我們周圍的行業環境嚴峻，但我們仍預計 2024 年全年 EPS 指引範圍將在 9 美元至 11 美元之間。這樣，我就把它交給布雷特了。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. This quarter, we continued to achieve record operational performance, delivering the best on-time performance, completion factor and seat cancellation rate for a second quarter since the pandemic while flying the most passengers in the quarter ever in our history, over 44 million. Looking across our network, Newark, our largest hub, broke several of its own records in 2Q with its April and May on-time departures being the best in company history.

謝謝你，斯科特，早安。本季度，我們繼續實現創紀錄的營運業績，準點率、完成率和座位取消率均創疫情大流行以來第二季度的最高水平，同時本季度載客量創歷史新高，超過 4400 萬人次。縱觀我們的網絡，我們最大的樞紐紐瓦克在第二季度打破了多項自己的記錄，其中 4 月和 5 月的準點出發時間是公司歷史上最好的。

The FAA waiver allowing for better balance between the number of flights and with the runways, facilities in aerospace and safely and efficiently handle at Newark has enabled us to produce these results for our customers. Operational excellence was not limited to Newark. Six out of our seven hubs departed more on-time flights than our primary competitors. The improvements were made over the last year to adapt to a more challenging operating environment have shown meaningful benefits to our reliability, particularly during times of irregular operations.

美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 的豁免允許在航班數量與跑道、航空航天設施之間實現更好的平衡，並在紐瓦克安全高效地進行處理，使我們能夠為客戶提供這些結果。卓越營運並不僅限於紐瓦克。我們的七個樞紐中有六個比我們的主要競爭對手的航班準點率更高。去年為適應更具挑戰性的操作環境而進行的改進對我們的可靠性顯示出有意義的好處，特別是在不規則操作期間。

Our strong operation, underpinned by our safety culture, is translating into an even better customer experience and driving efficiency benefits to the bottom line. This would not have been possible without the commitment to operational excellence from our frontline employees. So thank you to all of them for their hard work.

我們以安全文化為基礎的強大營運正在轉化為更好的客戶體驗，並將效率效益提升到底線。如果沒有我們第一線員工對卓越營運的承諾，這是不可能實現的。感謝他們所有人的辛勤工作。

As I mentioned before, our strong operation is not only driving efficiency, but it is also positively impacting our customer experience. As a result, our NPS scores were the highest quarter -- highest second quarter results since the pandemic. We're investing in all aspects of our product, including the introduction of Tillamook ice cream onboard our aircraft.

正如我之前提到的，我們強大的營運不僅提高了效率，而且還對我們的客戶體驗產生了積極影響。因此，我們的 NPS 分數是自大流行以來最高的季度——第二季度的最高結果。我們正在對產品的各個方面進行投資，包括在我們的飛機上推出 Tillamook 冰淇淋。

Additionally, the United app continues to be the most downloaded airline app with new features like seat preferences that automatically reseat customers when their preferred seat becomes available. This summer, we also started texting lag radar maps to customers during weather delays, so they can stay informed about how increment weather in one part of the country can impact their journey. Investment in our leading product and customer experience will remain a key priority to United and will continue to differentiate us as a premier global US carrier.

此外，美聯航應用程式仍然是下載次數最多的航空公司應用程序，其新功能包括座位偏好，當客戶的首選座位可用時，可以自動重新安排乘客的座位。今年夏天，我們也開始在天氣延誤期間向客戶發送滯後雷達地圖短信，以便他們隨時了解該國某一地區的天氣變化如何影響他們的旅程。對領先產品和客戶體驗的投資仍將是美聯航的首要任務，並將繼續使我們成為全球首屈一指的美國航空公司。

Shifting gears to our employees. I'm pleased to share that after a brief pause in pilot and flight attendant hiring classes due to the Boeing delivery delays for the months of May and June, we resumed these classes in July. Looking ahead, we have a busy end of summer in front of us. The United team continues to innovate and adapt to a complex operating environment. While Andrew will describe some of the near-term trends, it's clear that United has a bright future, and we remain on track to deliver $9 to $11 in earnings per share this year.

為我們的員工轉變方向。我很高興地告訴大家，由於 5 月和 6 月的波音交付延誤，飛行員和空服員招募課程短暫暫停後，我們在 7 月恢復了這些課程。展望未來，我們將迎來一個忙碌的夏末。美聯航團隊不斷創新並適應複雜的營運環境。雖然安德魯將描述一些近期趨勢，但很明顯，聯合航空擁有光明的未來，我們今年仍有望實現每股 9 至 11 美元的盈利。

I'll now hand it over to Andrew.

我現在將其交給安德魯。

Thanks, Brett. United today reported total revenues in Q2 of $15 billion, up 5.7% year over year. TRASM was down 2.4% on 8.3% more capacity year over year. We expect United's year over year unit revenues in Q2 to be the best of all our large peers. Domestic PRASM fell by 1.9% on 5.3% more capacity. As widely discussed, unprofitable industry capacity that exceeded still solid demand put pressure on domestic PRASM in 2Q.

謝謝，布雷特。美聯航今天公佈第二季總營收為 150 億美元，年增 5.7%。 TRASM 下降 2.4%，運力年增 8.3%。我們預計美聯航第二季的年比單位收入將成為所有大型同業中最好的。國內 PRASM 下降 1.9%，運力增加 5.3%。正如廣泛討論的那樣，無法獲利的行業產能超過了仍然強勁的需求，給第二季度國內 PRASM 帶來了壓力。

International PRASM fell by 3.6% on 12% more capacity year over year. Flights across the Atlantic had a small PRASM gain while flights to Latin America and Asia continue to see declines year over year. Cargo yields have also stabilized at higher levels than forecasted, which is helping cushion some of the PRASM declines we have seen. MileagePlus had yet another strong quarter with revenues up 13%.

國際 PRASM 下降 3.6%，運力較去年同期增加 12%。跨大西洋航班的 PRASM 略有成長，而飛往拉丁美洲和亞洲的航班繼續同比下降。貨運收益率也穩定在高於預期的水平，這有助於緩解我們所看到的 PRASM 的部分下降。前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 又一個強勁的季度，營收成長了 13%。

Our three key revenue segments continue to gain ground. United gained ground in our key markets amongst frequent business road warrior travelers, which we continue to believe is due to our no-change fee policy, our diverse set of products, our leading global network and our award-winning MileagePlus program. Revenue from these road warriors was up 11% in the quarter while total passenger revenue was up 5%.

我們的三個主要收入部門持續取得進展。美聯航在我們的主要市場中贏得了經常出差的商務旅行者的青睞，我們仍然相信，這要歸功於我們的不找零費用政策、我們多樣化的產品、我們領先的全球網絡以及我們屢獲殊榮的前程萬裡(MileagePlus) 計畫。本季度，這些公路戰士的營收成長了 11%，而客運總收入成長了 5%。

Consolidated premium revenues increased by 8.5% to $7.4 billion. Premium capacity was up 9.1%. Demand for United's premium capacity, including Economy Plus, was strong in the quarter, outperforming non-premium seats. Business load factor contribution in the Polaris cabin increased year over year by 2.6 points. Polaris and premium-plus RASMs were up 1.4 points year over year. We also continue to see strong demand for our premium domestic first-class product, which sold load factors up 13 points versus 2019 and 8 points versus 2023.

綜合保費收入成長 8.5%，達到 74 億美元。優質運能成長 9.1%。本季對美聯航高階艙位（包括豪華經濟艙）的需求強勁，表現優於非高級艙位。北極星客艙的商務載客率貢獻年增2.6個百分點。 Polaris 和高級 RASM 較去年同期成長 1.4 個百分點。我們也繼續看到對我們的優質國內一流產品的強勁需求，該產品的載客率比 2019 年提高了 13 個百分點，比 2023 年提高了 8 個百分點。

Contracted business revenues were up 10% year over year. Basic Economy revenues remained strong and were up 38% year over year. United plans to continue to increase the total number of seats we offer in basic as we grow our mainline gauge. However, basic as a percent of sales will likely stay stable or decline as we continue to expand higher-margin premium capacity faster. When United offers basic fares for sale at competitive rates, we believe customers will always choose United first over a ULCC or an LCC, given the features of our product, which includes seat power and seatback entertainment along with the unmatched benefits of MileagePlus.

合約業務收入較去年同期成長10%。基礎經濟收入依然強勁，較去年同期成長 38%。美聯航計劃隨著幹線航班規格的增加，繼續增加基本航班提供的座位總數。然而，隨著我們繼續更快地擴大利潤率較高的高端產能，基本銷售額的百分比可能會保持穩定或下降。當美聯航以具有競爭力的價格出售基本票價時，我們相信，考慮到我們產品的功能（包括座椅電動和椅背娛樂系統以及前程萬裡(MileagePlus) 無與倫比的優勢），乘客將始終首先選擇美聯航，而不是ULCC 或LCC。

Q2 revenue results for United and the industry did trail expectations. Looking back at the quarter now, it is increasingly clear that demand was, in fact, strong. It just could not keep up with the incremental industry domestic capacity added in 2024. Excess capacity, in turn, pressured yields. While July domestic industry capacity growth is published at similar levels to June, published capacity levels pivot in the second half of the quarter and beyond.

美聯航和整個行業第二季的收入結果確實低於預期。現在回顧本季度，越來越明顯的是，需求實際上很強勁。它只是無法跟上 2024 年新增的行業國內產能。雖然公佈的 7 月份國內行業產能成長水準與 6 月份相似，但公佈的產能水準將在本季下半年及以後發生變化。

Based on these schedules, we estimate that Q2 2024 industry scheduled domestic capacity increased by 6.6%. As we head into Q3, we expect July, and the first half of August will look very much like June in Q2. We do see a step down in the second half of the quarter to 2.5% to 3% and through the overall quarter at about 4%. We also see the industry altering capacity on peak travel days more than the usual later this summer.

根據這些時間表，我們估計 2024 年第二季產業預定國內產能成長 6.6%。當我們進入第三季時，我們預計 7 月和 8 月上半月將與第二季的 6 月非常相似。我們確實看到該季度下半年下降至 2.5% 至 3%，整個季度下降至 4% 左右。我們也看到，今年夏天晚些時候，該行業在旅遊高峰日對運力的改變比平時更多。

Peak day spill traffic is no longer filling up excess capacity on off-peak days, such as Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday, as it did in 2023 for leisure-focused, lower-margin airlines. We can also see from our internal data that Latin America unit revenue trends have stabilized in Q3, and PRASM declines will moderate significantly for the first time since 2Q 2023.

高峰日的溢出交通不再填補非高峰日（例如週二、週三和週六）的過剩運力，就像 2023 年對於以休閒為主、利潤較低的航空公司所做的那樣。從我們的內部數據還可以看到，拉丁美洲的單位收入趨勢在第三季已趨於穩定，PRASM 的下降將自 2023 年第二季以來首次大幅放緩。

But Latin America and Deep South unit revenues were strong in Q2 and look good going forward. In the third quarter, we do expect Pacific PRASM to remain negative. We do not lap our 2023 expansion wave until the fourth quarter. During the fourth quarter, we'll also lap China's return and expect more normal unit revenues from China, which is currently a material headwind in the region.

但拉丁美洲和南部腹地地區的單位收入在第二季表現強勁，前景看好。在第三季度，我們確實預期太平洋 PRASM 仍為負值。我們要到第四季才會結束 2023 年的擴張浪潮。在第四季度，我們也將關注中國的回報，並預期來自中國的單位收入將增加，目前中國是該地區的一個重大阻力。

Growth rates for the Pacific will also moderate as we end the year. We expect premium cabin RASM in Q3 will, once again, outperform coach at a level stronger than Q2 as we continue to see growth of road warrior customers and United and the continued popularity of the many elevated products that we offer. Mid-August is clearly the pivot point we're expecting for some time as others race to adjust what we believe is unprofitable flying heading into the period of seasonally less leisure demand.

到年底，太平洋地區的成長率也將放緩。我們預計，隨著我們繼續看到公路戰士客戶和美聯航的成長以及我們提供的許多高端產品的持續受歡迎，第三季度的高級客艙RASM 將再次以比第二季度更強的水平超越經濟艙。八月中旬顯然是我們預計一段時間的關鍵點，因為其他人競相調整我們認為無利可圖的航班，進入季節性休閒需求減少的時期。

Competitive capacity overlap on United non-stop routes peaked in Q2, which will also help build better unit revenues for the second half of 2024 for United. We believe it's clear in our internal advanced revenue data for August that the pivot will be beneficial to United. Advanced PRASM for United are currently booked 4 to 5 points better in the second half of the quarter than the first.

美聯航直達航線的競爭性運力重疊在第二季度達到頂峰，這也將有助於美聯航在 2024 年下半年創造更好的單位收入。我們相信，我們 8 月的內部先進收入數據清楚地表明，這一轉變將對聯合航空有利。目前，曼聯的 Advanced Prasm 在下半場的積分比上半場高出 4 到 5 分。

Unfortunately, this expected pivot occurs only for about half of Q3, so the revenue quality will continue to be impacted for the time being. We're encouraged by the yield improvement we see booked in the second half of the quarter. As we look towards Q4, we estimate that industry domestic capacity will only be up about 1.5% to 2.5% based on what's currently offered for sale. On off-peak days, capacity could be flat year over year. While our relative results indicate that United Next plan is working, we have decided to cut approximately 300 basis points of planned domestic capacity in the fourth quarter.

不幸的是，這種預期的轉變僅發生在第三季的一半左右，因此收入品質暫時將繼續受到影響。我們對本季下半年的產量改善感到鼓舞。展望第四季度，我們估計產業國內產能僅會根據目前出售的產能成長約 1.5% 至 2.5%。在非高峰日，運力可能與去年同期持平。雖然我們的相對結果表明 United Next 計劃正在發揮作用，但我們已決定將第四季度計劃的國內運力削減約 300 個基點。

While there are many macro issues outside of our control, the amount of capacity we offer is within it. This change will help us accelerate RASMs we see in the second half of Q3 into Q4 and beyond. As noted in our published schedules, we will be optimizing our capacity in Q4 by time of day and day of week, similarly to what we did in Q1 of 2024, which was very successful in increasing our relative RASM results. With that, I'll say a great thanks to the United team for another strong quarter with industry leading financial and operational results. And I'll hand it over to Mike to discuss our financial details.

雖然有許多宏觀問題超出了我們的控制範圍，但我們提供的產能是在控制範圍之內的。這項變更將幫助我們將 RASM 加速到第三季下半年到第四季及以後。正如我們發布的時間表中所指出的，我們將在第四季度按一天中的時間和一周中的一天優化我們的產能，類似於我們在2024 年第一季所做的事情，這正在提高我們的相對RASM 結果方面非常成功。在此，我要對美聯航團隊表示衷心的感謝，他們在本季又取得了強勁的業績，並取得了業界領先的財務和營運業績。我會將其交給麥克討論我們的財務細節。

Thanks, Andrew, and thank you to the United team for all of their hard work this busy summer season. In the second quarter, we delivered pretax income of $1.8 billion. Our earnings per share of $4.14 came in ahead of expectations, driven by good cost performance. In the quarter, we continued our no-excuses approach to managing the business to maximize profitability and to consistently deliver on our earnings guidance. The second quarter is another solid result despite some capacity headwinds to the industry. We have never been more confident that our United Next strategy is working.

謝謝安德魯，也感謝曼聯團隊在這個繁忙的夏天所做的辛勤工作。第二季度，我們實現了 18 億美元的稅前收入。由於良好的性價比，我們的每股收益為 4.14 美元，超出了預期。在本季度，我們繼續採用無藉口的方法來管理業務，以最大限度地提高盈利能力並始終如一地實現我們的盈利指導。儘管該行業面臨一些產能阻力，但第二季仍是另一個堅實的業績。我們對 United Next 策略的有效性充滿信心。

We've successfully differentiated our business, and that will support sustainably higher profitability. Turning to costs in the quarter. Unit costs, excluding fuel, were up 2.1% year over year on 8.3% capacity growth versus the second quarter of last year. Our strong second quarter CASM-ex performance was driven by three factors. First, over the year, our operations team has invested in technology and improved their processes to better recover from irregular operations.

我們已經成功地實現了業務的差異化，這將支持持續更高的獲利能力。轉向本季的成本。單位成本（不含燃料）年增 2.1%，運力較去年第二季成長 8.3%。我們第二季 CASM-ex 的強勁表​​現受到三個因素的推動。首先，一年來，我們的營運團隊投資了技術並改進了流程，以便更好地從不正常的營運中恢復過來。

Our ability to recover faster leads to a more reliable operation, and a more reliable operation is a more cost-efficient operation. Notably, crew-related disruption expenses, such as premium pay and deadheading costs, are much lower than we have seen during similar events in prior years. The full impact of these improvements drove approximately 1 point of CASM-ex improvement in 2Q compared to our own expectations.

我們更快恢復的能力帶來更可靠的運營，而更可靠的營運就是更具成本效益的營運。值得注意的是，與船員相關的中斷費用，例如保費和空頭費用，比我們在前幾年類似事件中看到的要低得多。與我們自己的預期相比，這些改進的全面影響推動第二季 CASM-ex 改進約 1 個百分點。

Second, as yields softened throughout the quarter, we doubled down on expense management to ensure we hit our EPS guidance. As we've discussed before, we have a no-excuses mentality with respect to hitting our EPS guidance, and we will do what is necessary in the quarter to achieve that. These specific actions led to another 0.5 point of CASM-ex improvement in the quarter versus our plan. Finally, approximately 0.5 point of CASM-ex is associated with the timing of maintenance events, which were delayed and will likely be seen in the second half of 2024.

其次，隨著整個季度殖利率疲軟，我們加倍加大費用管理力度，確保達到每股盈餘指引。正如我們之前討論的那樣，我們對於達到每股收益指引沒有任何藉口，我們將在本季度採取必要措施來實現這一目標。這些具體行動使本季度 CASM-ex 與我們的計劃相比又提高了 0.5 個百分點。最後，大約 0.5 個點的 CASM-ex 與維護事件的時間相關，維護事件被推遲，可能會在 2024 年下半年出現。

As we look to the third quarter, we expect industry capacity rationalization is beginning to take effect starting in mid-August. Money-losing flights across the industry are being cut rapidly, thus supporting our confidence in our trajectory for both the third quarter and the full year. Our own third quarter system capacity plan moderates by approximately 3 points versus the second quarter on a year-over-year basis.

展望第三季度，我們預期產業產能合理化將從8月中旬開始生效。整個產業的虧損航班正在迅速減少，從而支撐了我們對第三季和全年發展軌蹟的信心。我們自己的第三季系統容量計畫與第二季相比年減了約 3 個百分點。

While this is the correct action to take for United, this reduction in capacity, along with the impact from Hurricane Beryl in Houston, puts pressure on CASM-ex and makes the third quarter the high point for CASM-ex for the year. Altogether, with the revenue backdrop that Andrew described, we expect our third quarter earnings per share to be in the $2.75 to $3.25 range.

雖然這是曼聯採取的正確行動，但運力的減少以及休士頓貝裡爾颶風的影響給 CASM-ex 帶來了壓力，並使第三季度成為 CASM-ex 全年的高點。總而言之，根據安德魯描述的收入背景，我們預計第三季每股收益將在 2.75 美元至 3.25 美元之間。

As for the full year, we continue to expect to fall within our original EPS range of $9 to $11. I realize that many of you will immediately point out that this implies a better-than-normal seasonal pattern for Q4 versus Q3 earnings per share. That's accurate, and it's what we expect. It has nothing to do with seasonality, and everything to do with a better balance between supply and demand in the fourth quarter, which should lead to significantly higher yields and, therefore, improved profitability.

至於全年，我們繼續預期每股盈餘將落在 9 美元至 11 美元的最初區間內。我意識到你們中的許多人會立即指出，這意味著第四季度每股收益與第三季每股收益的季節性模式比正常水平好。這是準確的，也是我們所期望的。這與季節性無關，而與第四季度供需之間更好的平衡有關，這應該會導致收益率顯著提高，從而提高盈利能力。

Andrew already touched on this, but I'd like to reiterate it. We aren't hoping for moderating industry supply. It's already happened, and you can see it in published schedules and with our own reductions. Despite the excess industry capacity, it's clear, demand for the United product remains strong, and we expect our revenue growth to outperform the industry. Coupled with disciplined cost management, we expect United and one other airline to represent the vast majority of industry profits in 2024.

安德魯已經談到了這一點，但我想重申一下。我們不希望產業供應放緩。這已經發生了，你可以在公佈的時間表和我們自己的削減中看到它。儘管行業產能過剩，但很明顯，對美聯航產品的需求仍然強勁，我們預計我們的收入成長將優於行業。加上嚴格的成本管理，我們預計美聯航和另一家航空公司將在 2024 年佔據行業利潤的絕大部分。

On the fleet, in the second quarter, we took delivery of four Boeing MAX aircraft and five Airbus A321neo aircraft. We expect 66 aircraft deliveries in 2024. And with the movement of certain [PDPs] related to deliveries in future years, we now expect total adjusted capital expenditures to be less than $6.5 billion for the year.

在機隊方面，第二季度我們接收了四架波音 MAX 飛機和五架空中巴士 A321neo 飛機。我們預計 2024 年將交付 66 架飛機。

In the quarter, we generated $1.9 billion of free cash flow while also continuing to invest in the business with almost $1 billion in capital expenditures. Earlier this month, we took advantage of this position to improve our balance sheet by voluntarily prepaying the $1.8 billion outstanding balance of MileagePlus term loan that had an interest rate near 11%. This reduction in high interest rate debt significantly reduces our interest burden.

本季度，我們產生了 19 億美元的自由現金流，同時繼續以近 10 億美元的資本支出投資該業務。本月早些時候，我們利用這一優勢，自願提前償還利率接近 11% 的前程萬裡 (MileagePlus) 定期貸款 18 億美元的未償餘額，從而改善了我們的資產負債表。高利率債務的減少大大減輕了我們的利息負擔。

As of the end of the quarter, our adjusted net debt to EBITDAR was 2.6 times. I'm encouraged by our strong performance in the second quarter. Our team remains nimble as we've demonstrated our ability to adjust to an evolving environment. Thanks to the whole United team for their hard work, the United Next plan continues to run on all cylinders, and our confidence has never been higher about the trajectory of our business. With that, I'll pass it over to Kristina to start the Q&A.

截至本季末，我們調整後的 EBITDAR 淨債務為 2.6 倍。我對我們第二季的強勁表現感到鼓舞。我們的團隊仍然保持靈活性，因為我們已經證明了我們適應不斷變化的環境的能力。感謝整個美聯航團隊的辛勤工作，United Next 計劃繼續全速運轉，我們對我們業務的發展軌跡充滿了前所未有的信心。這樣，我將把它交給克里斯蒂娜來開始問答。

Thanks, Mike. We will now take questions from the analyst meeting. Please limit yourself to one question, and if needed, one follow-up question. Brianna, please describe the procedure to ask a question.

謝謝，麥克。我們現在將回答分析師會議上的問題。請限制自己提出一個問題，如果需要，還可以提出後續問題。 Brianna，請描述提問的程序。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Jamie Baker, JPMorgan.

傑米貝克，摩根大通。

Oh, hey, good morning, everybody. First one for Andrew. So look, American is still in the early innings of back paddling on some, not all, but some of the distribution and corporate contract revisions that they made last year. Curious what United is experiencing and what you're seeing and hearing, your conversations with corporate partners, how you expect commissions to trend over time, that sort of thing.

噢，嘿，大家早安。第一個是給安德魯的。所以看，美國航空仍處於去年進行的一些（不是全部，但一些）分銷和公司合約修訂的早期階段。好奇美聯航正在經歷什麼，您所看到和聽到的，您與企業合作夥伴的對話，您期望佣金隨時間的變化趨勢，諸如此類的事情。

Thanks, Jamie. Well, first, I'd say we don't believe there was a sudden material or a significant windfall to United when American attempted to disintermediate travel agencies and force companies to book direct. So I don't think there'll be a windfall as American flip flops again to this side. We've maintained really long-term partnerships with our agencies and corporate partners.

謝謝，傑米。好吧，首先，我想說，當美國航空試圖取消旅行社中介並迫使公司直接預訂時，我們不認為聯合航空會突然獲得物質或重大意外之財。所以我認為，當美國人再次轉向這一邊時，不會有意外之財。我們與我們的代理商和企業合作夥伴保持著真正的長期合作關係。

And what we did during this time period is we made sure that we put in long-term arrangements to gain long-term market share and make the corporations and the travel agencies more sticky to United. We'll see if that actually occurs. But I think the benefits of that are actually to come more than they are currently in our currently -- our current revenue outlook. So that was our perspective on it, and we think that there's no sudden windfall to United as a result of their change.

我們在這段時間所做的就是確保長期安排，以獲得長期市場份額，並使企業和旅遊對美聯社更具黏性。我們將看看這是否真的發生。但我認為，這樣做的好處實際上會比我們目前的收入前景更多。這就是我們對此的看法，我們認為曼聯的改變不會為他們帶來突然的意外之財。

Okay. Perfect. And then second, and maybe this is best for Scott. But just looking now at industry revenue to GDP, and I tend to use A4A figures just to remove forecast error. The recovery in this metric clearly stalled in the fourth quarter. It remains stalled in the first quarter. So we're still below that pre-COVID trend line. We've talked about this in the past and the possibility that post-COVID, increased consumer mobility could allow the metric to exceed the pre-COVID average.

好的。完美的。其次，也許這對斯科特來說是最好的。但現在看看產業收入佔 GDP 的比例，我傾向於使用 A4A 數據來消除預測誤差。該指標的復甦在第四季明顯陷入停滯。第一季仍處於停滯狀態。因此，我們仍低於新冠疫情前的趨勢線。我們過去曾討論過這一點，以及新冠疫情后消費者流動性增加可能使該指標超過新冠疫情前平均水平的可能性。

I'm just wondering if you still think that's a possibility and whether this even shapes how you think about growth or perhaps it no longer factors into your thinking at all, which is fine. Just any thoughts on that topic? Thanks.

我只是想知道你是否仍然認為這是一種可能性，以及這是否會影響你對成長的看法，或者它可能不再影響你的思維，這很好。關於這個主題有什麼想法嗎？謝謝。

Well, this will be a geeky economics 202.

好吧，這將會是一本極客經濟學 202。

Yeah. I think that, absolutely, the airline revenue-to-GDP ratio is going to trend back. I'm not sure where it will close, but it is going to trend back upwards. And I think if you went back and looked into history, what you'd find is every time capacity gets ahead of demand, this ratio declined. So the reason that happens is because demand for air travel is elastic.

是的。我認為，航空公司收入與 GDP 的比率絕對會回落。我不確定它會在哪裡收盤，但它會呈現回升趨勢。我認為，如果你回顧歷史，你會發現每次產能超過需求時，這個比率都會下降。所以發生這種情況的原因是因為航空旅行的需求是有彈性的。

Like the very first project I worked on when I was an analyst at American Airlines was estimating demand elasticity. It is inelastic. Every bit of analysis you look at says that demand is inelastic. But when airlines get over their skis on capacity, they rush to get the load factors up, and they lower prices and that lowers overall revenue. So it really is just as simple as this ratio goes down when supply exceeds demand, and so I'm not at all surprised to see that happen.

就像我在美國航空公司擔任分析師時所做的第一個專案一樣，就是估算需求彈性。它是無彈性的。你看到的每一項分析都顯示需求缺乏彈性。但當航空公司克服了運力限制時，他們就會急於提高載客率，並降低價格，從而降低整體收入。所以這真的很簡單，就像當供應超過需求時這個比率會下降一樣，所以我對看到這種情況的發生一點也不感到驚訝。

I am incredibly encouraged to see the rapid response that is happening. We'll probably talk about it more as we go through the call today. But beginning mid-August, I mean, I've been through these cycles with capacity many times in my career. This is the fastest response. It's also the biggest gap between the leading airlines and the other airlines, which I think is part of the reason the response is so fast, but the fastest response I've ever seen. So I expect that to close. I think -- but I think it's purely a function of capacity.

看到正在發生的快速反應，我感到非常鼓舞。在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會更多地討論這個問題。但從八月中旬開始，我的意思是，在我的職業生涯中，我已經多次經歷過這些週期。這是最快的反應。這也是領先航空公司與其他航空公司之間最大的差距，我認為這也是響應如此之快的部分原因，但卻是我見過的最快的響應。所以我預計這會結束。我認為——但我認為這純粹是能力的函數。

Okay. That's great. Andrew and Scott thanks so much.

好的。那太棒了。安德魯和斯科特非常感謝。

Andrew Didora, Bank of America.

安德魯·迪多拉，美國銀行。

Hey, good morning, everyone. First question, probably for Scott. Last night, Alaska announced more premium seating. There are reports out there JetBlue could do the same. Now obviously, a lot of discussion on your premium strength on the call today, certainly a tailwind. Just how do you think some of this premium RASM growth can trend from here? Do you think some of it will be competed away? Or is the United product so unique that you feel like you can hold on to most of it here? Just would love your thoughts.

嘿，大家早安。第一個問題，可能是針對史考特的。昨晚，阿拉斯加宣布增加高級座位。有報道稱捷藍航空也可能採取同樣的做法。顯然，今天的電話會議上有很多關於您的溢價實力的討論，這無疑是一個順風車。您認為這種優質 RASM 成長的趨勢如何？你認為其中一些會被競爭掉嗎？或者美聯航的產品是否如此獨特，以至於您覺得您可以在這裡保留其中的大部分？只是會喜歡你的想法。

I'll try to take that on. This is Andrew. I'll start off with first, and it's really important, United is a premium business airline not because it's the latest fad but because it's core to the hub system we operate from. Our hubs are in premium markets. Given the success of us and one other airline with a similar setup, it's no surprise that others are copying us with new cabins or expanded cabins, as we've seen in the last few days.

我會嘗試接受這一點。這是安德魯。首先，這非常重要，美聯航是一家優質商務航空公司，不是因為它是最新的時尚，而是因為它是我們營運的樞紐系統的核心。我們的中心位於高端市場。鑑於我們和另一家擁有類似設置的航空公司所取得的成功，其他航空公司效仿我們的新機艙或擴大機艙也就不足為奇了，正如我們在過去幾天所看到的那樣。

I think attempting to copy our segmentation plan when it's something that we've been implementing in earnest for more than seven years will be a challenge for anyone that does not operate from business center hubs. Our segmentation strategy is built on a complex set of products, along with delivering excellent customer service. The ULCC business model, in particular, is built on simplicity, not complexity.

我認為，對於任何不在商務中心運營的人來說，嘗試複製我們已經認真實施了七年多的細分計劃將是一個挑戰。我們的細分策略建立在一系列複雜的產品之上，並提供卓越的客戶服務。特別是 ULCC 商業模式建立在簡單性而非複雜性的基礎上。

So our belief is our lead in the premium front is generational and not short term, and I'm not at all concerned about the changes of others. Maybe we're even a little bit flattered as they copy us.

因此，我們相信我們在高端領域的領先地位是世代相傳的，而不是短期的，而且我根本不關心其他人的變化。也許當他們模仿我們時我們甚至有點受寵若驚。

Got it. Very interesting. Thank you for that, Andrew. And just a quick question for Mike, very nice cost execution in the quarter. Can you maybe help me understand some of the near-term cost levers that you're able to pull as you see those -- the revenues coming in a little bit softer than expected? And are these just kind of timing-related? Or are these costs that kind of permanently come out? Thank you.

知道了。很有意思。謝謝你，安德魯。我想問麥克一個簡單的問題，本季的成本執行非常好。你能否幫助我了解一些你可以採取的近期成本槓桿——收入比預期要軟一些？這些只是與時間有關嗎？或者這些成本會永久消失嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. It's a mixture. As I said -- and thanks for the question. As I said in the call, running a strong operation is the best thing we can do for cost efficiency in the near term, and the operational team has done a great job. We have some opportunities within tech ops also. In this quarter though, some of those costs simply pushed to the right and were timing-related. So you will see some pressure in 3Q. As we look longer term, some of the headwinds around CASM include labor deals that we're looking forward to finalize.

是的。這是一種混合物。正如我所說 - 感謝您提出問題。正如我在電話中所說，運行強大的營運是我們近期為提高成本效率所能做的最好的事情，營運團隊做得很好。我們在技術營運領域也有一些機會。不過，在本季度，其中一些成本只是被推到了右邊，並且與時間相關。所以第三季你會看到一些壓力。從長遠來看，圍繞 CASM 的一些不利因素包括我們期待最終敲定的勞工協議。

We also expect to see some uplift in regional flying in the future. That'll work against the gauge benefit that we expect over a two- to three-year time frame, and so that's another headwind. And look, as Andrew spoke about, our premium product is in great demand. And so we continue to make investments in our product, in our airports, in our catering. And those will add costs, but we expect to add even more revenue. So those are some of the headwinds.

我們也預計未來支線航班數量將會增加。這將不利於我們預計在兩到三年內的儀表效益，因此這是另一個阻力。正如安德魯所說，我們的優質產品需求量很大。因此，我們繼續對我們的產品、機場和餐飲進行投資。這些都會增加成本，但我們預計會增加更多收入。這些是一些不利因素。

Now tailwinds, and we've been on this for several years, but we have an idiosyncratic tailwind of gauge that is like no one else in the industry. And we continue to see some real opportunity from that. As we spoke about last quarter, we've now level loaded our skyline for aircraft. That's going to create a more stable growth pattern, which will allow us to hire more efficiently and make sure that every asset is staffed appropriately, allowing for more efficient growth.

現在是順風，我們已經在這方面投入了好幾年了，但我們擁有行業中獨一無二的特殊規格順風。我們繼續從中看到一些真正的機會。正如我們上個季度談到的那樣，我們現在已經水平加載了飛機的天際線。這將創造一個更穩定的成長模式，使我們能夠更有效地招募人員，並確保每項資產都配備適當的人員，從而實現更有效率的成長。

And then longer term, I do expect to have a more efficient maintenance operation. So a little bit of the puts and takes.

從長遠來看，我確實希望擁有更有效率的維護作業。所以有一點點的投入和採取。

I'm going to actually pile on and give kudos to Mike, Jonathan Ireland and Toby because much of what you see in this is a real structural changes. I mean, Mike talked about the benefit that we've gotten from irregular operations. That team, the three of them combined, with a lot of support from Jason Birnbaum, our Chief Information Officer, who's sitting in here, with technology are really identifying the places where there's opportunity to pull permanent cost out.

我實際上要向麥克、喬納森·愛爾蘭和托比致以敬意，因為你在其中看到的大部分內容都是真正的結構性變化。我的意思是，麥克談到了我們從非正常運作中獲得的好處。這個團隊，他們三人的結合，以及坐在這裡的首席資訊長傑森·伯恩鮑姆（Jason Birnbaum）的大力支持，利用技術真正確定了有機會消除永久成本的地方。

To me, like there's other places that it's happening, but the irregular operations expense improvement is one of the biggest proof points. And we just have a great team that is doing those kinds of things. We didn't build that into the budget at the start of the year. We didn't realize how successful it would be. They're doing a lot of other work like that. And I think we should have a really solid process and team for cost.

對我來說，就像其他地方正在發生的那樣，但不規則營運費用的改善是最大的證據之一。我們有一支出色的團隊正在做這些事情。我們沒有將其納入年初的預算中。我們沒有意識到它會如此成功。他們正在做很多類似的其他工作。我認為我們應該有一個非常可靠的流程和團隊來降低成本。

And so while it was great to hit that in these quarters, that's something that is an example that is permanent. And we'll always spend less on irregular operations than we did in the past, and I think there's a lot more of that to come.

因此，雖然在這些季度實現這一目標很棒，但這是一個永久的例子。我們在非常規營運上的支出總是比過去少，而且我認為未來還會有更多支出。

That's great. Thanks so much.

那太棒了。非常感謝。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

康納·坎寧安，Melius 研究中心。

Hi, everyone. Thank you. I think that many of us can buy into the idea that capacity is going to be rationalized near term, but the fear over the longer term is that someone is going to start to cheat again. So what's United's plan if the capacity reduction are just short term? Clearly, your margin structure has slipped. You're playing from an area of strength. But just curious on how you're going to approach a competitor set that's always looking to add supply at some point. Thank you.

大家好。謝謝。我認為我們中的許多人都可以相信產能在短期內將會合理化，但從長遠來看，人們擔心有人會再次開始作弊。那麼，如果運力減少只是短期的，那麼美聯航的計畫是什麼？顯然，你的利潤結構已經下滑。你正在發揮自己的優勢。但只是好奇你將如何接近總是在某個時候尋求增加供應的競爭對手。謝謝。

Well, let me start off with my views. I mean, the unprofitable capacity is just not sustainable, and we see the changes occurring, as Scott said. But as you think about this question, you normally look at the pretax margins and liquidity and margins. But we did the same. However, I think even more insightful is looking at the network health of our competitors and how that is different today than it's ever been in the past to answer your question about will the capacity come back. Our estimate is margins for the worst quartile of flying for the five least profitable domestic-centric airlines is negative 25% to 35% today.

好吧，我先談談我的看法。我的意思是，無利可圖的產能是不可持續的，正如史考特所說，我們看到了變化的發生。但當你思考這個問題時，你通常會考慮稅前利潤率、流動性和利潤率。但我們也做了同樣的事情。然而，我認為更富有洞察力的是關注我們競爭對手的網路健康狀況，以及今天與過去的網路健康狀況有何不同，以回答您關於容量是否會恢復的問題。我們的估計是，目前五家獲利最差​​的國內航空公司的飛行利潤率最差四分之一為負 25% 至 35%。

We estimate that the severely unprofitable capacity is almost 10% of domestic ASMs. In the past, the magnitude of the worst flying, in my view, has never been this bad and from the lower-margin airlines, and the lower-margin airlines never had such a overall gap to the higher-margin airlines like United. I don't think one low-margin airline failing or shrinking dramatically in any way will change the outcome for the others at this point, given the magnitude of the losses of the worst line.

我們估計嚴重虧損的產能幾乎佔國內ASM 的10%。在我看來，過去，最糟糕的飛行規模從未如此糟糕，而且來自利潤率較低的航空公司，而利潤率較低的航空公司與聯合航空等利潤率較高的航空公司之間的整體差距從未如此之大。考慮到最差航空公司的損失規模，我認為任何一家低利潤航空公司的倒閉或大幅萎縮都不會改變其他航空公司此時的結果。

And the other thing that's really occurred that's very interesting is the growth line by these carriers is also extremely unprofitable. The -- just the business plans, in some cases, have largely run their course. And there's just no new opportunities available today. And so that setup is just really different and provides us with a backstop that we think that permanent change is on its way.

另一件真正發生的非常有趣的事情是這些業者的成長線也極為無利可圖。在某些情況下，只是商業計劃已基本完成。如今已經沒有新的機會了。因此，這種設定確實是不同的，並為我們提供了一個後盾，我們認為永久性的改變即將到來。

Exactly when it occurs over the next quarter or two or three, it's hard to say. But it does feel like when you look at these facts and the magnitude of the worst quartile profitability, that this is a very different environment, and the capacity hopefully will be slow to come back. But it's -- only time will tell.

確切地說，它何時發生在下一個季度或兩個或三個季度，很難說。但當你看到這些事實和最差四分之一的獲利能力時，你確實會覺得這是一個非常不同的環境，產能有望緩慢恢復。但只有時間才能證明一切。

That's actually super helpful. Thank you, Andrew. And then realize it's early, but you're making adjustments for the fourth quarter, and the implications for 2025 could be significant. I know it. Again, realize you're not trying to give '25 capacity plans, but the United Next plan called for like 4% to 6% annual growth. Has that thought process changed, given what's happening in the current environment today? Thank you.

這實際上非常有幫助。謝謝你，安德魯。然後意識到現在還為時過早，但您正在對第四季度進行調整，這對 2025 年的影響可能會很大。我知道這。再次強調，您並不是想提供“25 年產能計劃”，但 United Next 計劃要求年增長率為 4% 到 6%。鑑於當前環境中發生的情況，這種思考過程是否發生了變化？謝謝。

You're right. We're not going to give capacity guidance. What we are going to say is we're going to continue with some of the fundamentals of United Next, which improved -- improving connectivity was really, really important, and we'll continue to do that as we go forward. The other thing to bear in mind is one of the key ingredients to United Next was the large narrow-body gauge and fleet size.

你說得對。我們不會提供容量指導。我們要說的是，我們將繼續堅持 United Next 的一些基本原則，這些原則已經得到改善——改善連結性確實非常重要，我們將在前進的過程中繼續這樣做。另一件需要記住的事情是 United Next 的關鍵要素之一是大型窄體機距和機隊規模。

And as of today, we're 110 aircraft short on that. We kept smaller aircraft around to compensate for that. But the A321 at United today is operating with 8 margin points above that of the rest of the narrow-body fleet. And we're really bullish as we get to the right fleet mix, one that all of our competitors already have in their business plans. We are going to continue to push the margins in the right direction. I think if you ask anybody in the commercial team, they realize the importance of getting to a double-digit margin soon, and we're all rowing the boat in the same direction to achieve that.

截至今天，我們還缺少 110 架飛機。我們保留了較小的飛機來彌補這一點。但目前美聯航 A321 的營運利潤率比其他窄體機隊高出 8 點。我們非常看好我們能夠找到正確的機隊組合，我們所有的競爭對手都已經在其業務計劃中採用了這一組合。我們將繼續將利潤推向正確的方向。我想如果你問商業團隊中的任何人，他們都會意識到盡快達到兩位數利潤的重要性，並且我們都在朝著同一個方向划船以實現這一目標。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Michael Linenberg, Deutsche Bank.

麥可‧林伯格，德意志銀行。

Hey. Good morning. I know we have focused a lot on domestic capacity, and it does feel pretty good as we move through the year. I guess one question on domestic. The 3-point reduction that you talked about in the fourth quarter, what's kind of the base? Or is that already loaded in the schedule? Or is that on the come?

嘿。早安.我知道我們非常關注國內產能，隨著這一年的進展，這確實感覺非常好。我猜想有一個關於國內的問題。你說的第四節的3分減少，到底是什麼樣的基礎呢？或者已經加載到日程中了？還是即將到來？

We're not going to give guidance for Q4 at this point. We haven't finalized our Q4 schedules, but -- we'll leave it at that.

目前我們不會為第四季提供指導。我們還沒有最終確定第四季度的時間表，但是——我們就這樣吧。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, Andrew, since I have you on, flipping over to international. I'm sure you've seen the headlines recently from Lufthansa, even Qatar Airways, making a deal about too much capacity, although, at times, it seems like pot calling the kettle black here. But what are you seeing internationally as from -- I guess, competitively as things move over time?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，安德魯，既然我有你，就轉到國際。我相信您最近已經看到過漢莎航空甚至卡塔爾航空的頭條新聞，它們就運力過多達成了協議，儘管有時這似乎是自相矛盾。但隨著時間的推移，我想，隨著事情的發展，你在國際上看到了什麼？

And I do realize that some of the great coming out of the European carriers is an influx of capacity from Asian carriers to Europe. But maybe what are you seeing in some of your other major traffic lanes? Is that a potential issue as we move from '24 to '25? Thank you.

我確實意識到，歐洲航空公司的一些偉大成就是亞洲航空公司湧入歐洲的運力。但也許您在其他一些主要車道上看到了什麼？當我們從 24 世紀過渡到 25 世紀時，這是一個潛在的問題嗎？謝謝。

Sure. It's a good question. And obviously, the Asia-European dynamic that I think a lot of airlines have cited now is not really one that all that relevant to United Airlines. So I don't think that negativity translates through to where we are. But what I would say is -- and we've been saying this for a while, but we do see a pivot.

當然。這是一個好問題。顯然，我認為許多航空公司現在引用的亞歐動態實際上與聯合航空公司並不完全相關。所以我認為消極情緒不會轉化為我們現在的處境。但我想說的是——我們已經這麼說了有一段時間了，但我們確實看到了一個關鍵點。

First, in the Pacific, last Q4, we were up 83% year over year in capacity as we more or less have gotten Pacific back to pre-pandemic levels. And this year, we're going to be up high single digits. So we're obviously bullish about that transition. And then Latin America. South America has already pivoted to positive, and we expect to close in Latin America to pivot as well and do dramatically better.

首先，在太平洋地區，去年第四季度，我們的運力同比增長了 83%，或多或少已經使太平洋地區恢復到了大流行前的水平。今年，我們的業績將實現高個位數成長。因此，我們顯然對這種轉變持樂觀態度。然後是拉丁美洲。南美洲已經轉向積極，我們預計拉丁美洲也將轉向積極，並且表現顯著更好。

And then the last point is we have said over and over again, we were taking a pause year on the Atlantic. Clearly, others did not choose to do so, and our results across the Atlantic, I think, are a shining star of our plan. It worked. And so we're really happy with Atlantic. The Atlantic continues to look good going forward with extremely solid profitability. And so overall, I think international is fundamentally different than it was pre-pandemic, and the results show that.

最後一點是我們已經一遍又一遍地說，我們將在大西洋上暫停一年。顯然，其他人沒有選擇這樣做，我認為，我們在大西洋彼岸的結果是我們計劃中一顆閃亮的星星。有效。所以我們對大西洋非常滿意。大西洋號的未來前景依然良好，獲利能力極為強勁。總的來說，我認為國際情勢與疫情前有根本不同，結果也顯示了這一點。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫研究。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Mike, just want to clarify a couple of things. Your -- you had a comment about the implied fourth quarter guidance. Just want to make sure you feel like we should be tracking towards the midpoint of the full year guide.

嘿，謝謝。早安.麥克，我只想澄清一些事情。您對隱含的第四季指導意見有評論。只是想確保您覺得我們應該追蹤全年指南的中點。

And then there was a comment in the release that says that you guys expect to have leading unit revenue performance among peers in the second half of the quarter. I know Delta talked about domestic RASM inflecting back positive in September. So I just want to make sure we're all on the same page, and you think that you'll be positive on RASM exiting the quarter.

然後新聞稿中有一條評論說，你們預計本季下半年的單位收入表現將在同業中領先。我知道達美航空在 9 月談到了國內 RASM 的積極變化。所以我只是想確保我們都達成共識，並且您認為您會對 RASM 退出本季度持積極態度。

Well, thanks for the question, Scott. And I'll let Andrew talk about September PRASM. I will say that at this point in the year, $2 range on earnings per share, $9 to $11, so that's a range that, in a more normal environment, I would have liked to narrow. You would expect to have more certainty now than we had back in January when we initially said it.

嗯，謝謝你的提問，斯科特。我會讓安德魯談談九月的普拉薩姆。我想說的是，今年的這個時候，每股收益的範圍是 2 美元，即 9 美元到 11 美元，所以在更正常的環境下，我希望縮小這個範圍。你會期望現在比我們一月份最初說的時候有更多的確定性。

But while we see this incredible inflection upon us in the industry, the precise timing in magnitude is difficult to call. And so as we look out to the third quarter and fourth quarter, current trends, based on current yields, based on the current published capacity, would put us at the low end of the $9 -- in the lower half of the $9 to $11 for the full year.

但是，儘管我們看到這個行業發生了令人難以置信的變化，但其具體時間卻很難預測。因此，當我們展望第三季和第四季時，基於當前收益率、基於當前公佈的產能，當前趨勢將使我們處於 9 美元的低端——處於 9 至 11 美元的下半部分。 。

But there are a ton of reasons to expect further reductions of unprofitable flying to push us higher. And so we very deliberately and had significant discussions internally, but very deliberately left the range wide. And we will -- we are committing to hit something in that range. And you can all read the tea leaves as the data develops to decide where you want to make your own estimate. We're committing to the range.

但有許多理由預期無利可圖的航班會進一步減少，推動我們走得更高。因此，我們非常刻意地在內部進行了重要的討論，但非常刻意地將範圍擴大了。我們將會－我們承諾要達到這個範圍內的目標。隨著數據的發展，你們都可以閱讀茶葉來決定你們想要在哪裡進行自己的估計。我們致力於該範圍。

I'll just -- yeah, I'll confirm the point. We do think that September PRASM for domestic will flip positive at this point based on the 4- to 5-point improvement we're seeing so far. We think that's going to hold. We also -- just July will be the worst quarter of the year probably -- or sorry, July will be the worst month for the year.

我會——是的，我會確認這一點。我們確實認為，基於我們迄今為止所看到的 4 到 5 個點的改善，9 月的國內 PRASM 將在此時轉為正值。我們認為這會持續下去。我們也——只是七月可能會是一年中最糟糕的季度——或者抱歉，七月將是一年中最糟糕的月份。

Helpful. And then I don't know if you have any early thoughts on CapEx for next year, less than $6.5 billion this year. Any thoughts on directionally higher, lower or similar for next year?

有幫助。然後我不知道您對明年的資本支出是否有任何初步想法，今年的資本支出不到 65 億美元。對明年的方向更高、更低或類似有什麼想法嗎？

I think very little change from our prior guidance. We're targeting that 100 narrow bodies per year as we re-baseline the skyline. And nothing that we see right now would cause me to change that today.

我認為與我們之前的指導相比變化不大。當我們重新設定天際線基準時，我們的目標是每年減少 100 個窄體。我們現在所看到的一切都不會導致我今天改變這一點。

Thank you, guys. Appreciate the time.

感謝你們。珍惜時間。

Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

杜安‧芬尼格沃斯 (Duane Pfennigwerth)，Evercore ISI。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just on corporate. I think the last time we were together, you talked about improvement in the March quarter and basically holding serve in 2Q. I wonder if you could remind us your view on how recovered it is, both on a volume and on a revenue basis, and your thoughts on potential improvement from here. Basically, what's baked into the guidance in terms of incremental improvement on corporate?

嘿，謝謝。早安.只是在公司。我想上次我們在一起時，你談到了三月份季度的進步以及第二季度基本上保住了發球局。我想知道您是否可以提醒我們您對恢復情況（無論是數量還是收入）的看法，以及您對此處潛在改進的想法。基本上，該指南在企業漸進式改進方麵包含哪些內容？

The most important thing is it's a slow but steady improvement. I don't think we see a rapid change occurring anytime soon. It's recovered roughly to 100%. Obviously, that's far behind would otherwise be on a typical GDP relationship. And the load factor contribution of corporate is down more than a few points relative to 2019.

最重要的是，這是一個緩慢但穩定的進步。我認為我們不會很快看到快速的變化。已經恢復到100%左右了。顯然，這遠遠落後於典型的 GDP 關係。與2019年相比，企業客座率貢獻下降了多個百分點。

So it is a much smaller percentage on the airplane. But as we look, for example, in Polaris this last few months, we found the Polaris business load factor to be up a point, and the leisure -- premium leisure demand was down a point as we slowly transition back to corporate. But it's going to take a while, but it is happening.

所以在飛機上這個比例就小很多。但正如我們所看到的，例如，在過去幾個月的北極星中，我們發現北極星的商業負載係數上升了一個點，而隨著我們慢慢過渡回企業，休閒——高級休閒需求下降了一個點。但這需要一段時間，但它正在發生。

Thanks. And then maybe one for Mike. Can you just remind us what the next opportunities might be to pay down a high coupon debt? Obviously, you took down loyalty debt, high coupon loyalty debt as soon as it was prepayable. What are the next two to three opportunities on that front? Thank you.

謝謝。然後也許是給麥克的。您能否提醒我們下一個償還高票價債務的機會是什麼？顯然，一旦可提前償還，您就取消了忠誠度債務、高息票忠誠度債務。接下來的兩到三個機會是什麼？謝謝。

Thanks for the question, Duane. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're now at 2.6 times trailing 12-month net debt-to-EBITDAR. Back in 2019, we were at 2.5 times. So we're already at pre-pandemic levels of leverage. We've got a tremendous amount of cash on the balance sheet, feel really good about the balance sheet for those reasons. We are also funding all of the organic growth to drive United Next.

謝謝你的提問，杜安。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們現在的過去 12 個月淨債務與 EBITDAR 之比為 2.6 倍。早在 2019 年，我們就達到了 2.5 倍。因此，我們的槓桿水平已經處於大流行前的水平。我們的資產負債表上有大量現金，因此我們對資產負債表感覺非常好。我們也為所有有機成長提供資金，以推動 United Next。

We're investing in our airplanes. We're investing in our people. Those two buckets are the first two priorities and calls on cash. The third call on cash is investor returns. And given where our balance sheet is and given the level of organic growth that we are funding, we now have a lot of flexibility to start to consider investor returns and to start to look at some further deleveraging. And so we'll see -- I see a mix of that going forward.

我們正在投資我們的飛機。我們正在投資我們的員工。這兩個方面是前兩個優先事項，需要現金。第三個現金需求是投資者回報。考慮到我們的資產負債表狀況以及我們資助的有機成長水平，我們現在有很大的靈活性來開始考慮投資者的回報並開始考慮進一步的去槓桿化。所以我們會看到——我看到了未來的混合情況。

Specifically, to your question, really, there are no instruments that are prepayable right now that are of such high coupon like the 11% debt we just prepaid. There are no near-term opportunities of that magnitude to prepay any more debt. Thanks, Duane.

具體來說，對於你的問題，實際上，現在沒有任何可提前償還的工具具有像我們剛剛預付的 11% 債務那樣高的票息。短期內沒有機會提前償還更多債務。謝謝，杜安。

Very clear. Thank you.

非常清楚。謝謝。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Thank you and good morning, guys. Andrew, maybe this one's for you or Scott. I believe you made a comment that the spread of the unit revenue performance is going to widen between the premium mix and the economy cabin.

謝謝你們，早安，夥計們。安德魯，也許這個適合你或斯科特。我相信您曾評論過，高級客艙和經濟艙之間的單位收入表現差距將會擴大。

So slightly different than the comment on premium your competitor made. So I think your premium revenues were actually down on a PRASM basis. So wonder how much of that is premium softening. Or is that more revenue management actions you guys are taking to help with the economy cabin?

與競爭對手對溢價的評論略有不同。所以我認為你們的保費收入實際上是在 PRASM 的基礎上下降的。所以想知道其中有多少是溢價軟化的。或者你們正在採取更多的收入管理行動來幫助經濟艙？

Sure. I'll give you the distinction. The premium cabin RASM was up. The premium RASM contribution was down, and that's because of the definition of whether it includes Economy Plus or not. Economy Plus is obviously part of the main cabin. And Economy Plus was infiltrated by the yield weakness of the main cabin. And so we did see that issue, and it resulted in the number that you just saw. But if you look at just the PRASM contribution of Polaris and Premium Plus and domestic first class, you would find that was up low single digits year-over-year.

當然。我會給你區分。高級客艙 RASM 已升起。保費 RASM 貢獻有所下降，這是因為它是否包括 Economy Plus 的定義。豪華經濟艙顯然是主艙的一部分。而經濟艙則受到主艙殖利率疲軟的影響。所以我們確實看到了這個問題，並導致了您剛才看到的數字。但如果你只看北極星、Premium Plus 和國內頭等艙對 PRASM 的貢獻，你會發現比去年同期成長了較低的個位數。

Okay. Got it. Apologies for that. And then maybe if we could talk about following up on, I think, Mike's question about Atlantic and regional capacity around the world. On Atlantic, how do you think that trends over the next four quarters? Do we have the same sort of oversupply issue? You don't seem to see that. And is that just given the fleet dynamics with wide-bodies and the premium cabin there? Can you maybe elaborate on that?

好的。知道了。對此表示歉意。然後也許我們可以討論一下麥克關於大西洋和世界各地區域能力的問題的後續問題。在大西洋月刊上，您認為未來四個季度的趨勢如何？我們是否也面臨同樣的供應過剩問題？你似乎沒有看到這一點。這只是考慮到寬體機隊和高級客艙的機隊動態嗎？能詳細說明一下嗎？

Look, I think the Atlantic -- well, if you go back to last year, particularly June of last year, had one of the most unbelievable quarters we've ever seen, an unbelievable month in June. And we're actually doing a little bit better year-over-year, and so we're really proud of that. And we, again, think we made the right capacity allocation choices to create that outcome better than our competitors did, quite frankly.

聽著，我認為大西洋——好吧，如果你回顧去年，特別是去年六月，它經歷了我們所見過的最令人難以置信的季度之一，六月是一個令人難以置信的月份。實際上，我們的表現逐年好一些，因此我們對此感到非常自豪。坦白說，我們再次認為我們做出了正確的產能分配選擇，比我們的競爭對手更好地創造了這一結果。

What I would say is capacity to Southern Europe, which is up 31% year over year this summer, has pushed the limits of demand to Southern Europe. And that's just a fact. But the overall combination for United, including our Southern European performance, I think, has been pretty darn good, given the comp from last year. And we're very careful on our scheduled plan for this year, and that careful nature continues all the way through the end of the year with our published schedules. So we feel good about the setup that the Atlantic will continue to look pretty good going forward.

我想說的是，今年夏天南歐的運能年增了 31%，已經突破了南歐的需求極限。這只是事實。但我認為，考慮到去年的表現，曼聯的整體表現，包括我們南歐的表現，已經相當不錯了。我們對今年的預定計劃非常謹慎，這種謹慎的態度一直持續到今年年底，我們公佈了時間表。因此，我們對大西洋航線未來的發展前景感到滿意。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays. Please go ahead.

布蘭登·奧格倫斯基，巴克萊銀行。請繼續。

Hey. Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. Mike, just a point of clarification here. I think maybe last quarter or two quarters ago, you said beyond 2024, CapEx should be in the $7 billion to $9 billion range. Is that with that anticipation of 100 narrow-body aircraft deliveries baked in?

嘿。早安，感謝您提出我的問題。麥克，這裡需要澄清一點。我想也許上個季度或兩個季度前，您說過 2024 年之後，資本支出應該在 70 億美元到 90 億美元的範圍內。這是與交付 100 架窄體飛機的預期有關嗎？

That's precisely correct.

這是完全正確的。

Okay. And I guess maybe for my follow-up, for Scott or for Mike. I mean, I really appreciate the no-excuses mentality here. I think the Street likes you're just EPS guidance and focusing on bottom line results. But I think you both would agree that you're below your next targets on margins right now, and you are below profitability of last year, too.

好的。我想也許是為了我的後續行動，為了史考特或麥克。我的意思是，我真的很欣賞這裡不找藉口的心態。我認為華爾街喜歡你只是每股收益指引並關注底線結果。但我認為你們都會同意，你們現在的利潤率低於下一個目標，而且你們的獲利能力也低於去年的水準。

And I think part of the challenge for investors here, because your multiple is quite low, and I think you both would agree on that as well, your CapEx outlook here is roughly matching your operating cash flow. And I realize if you hit higher margins that you could offset some of that. But I think what investors are saying is, hey, why can't we see a more balanced capital allocation strategy, maybe a little bit less CapEx?

我認為投資人面臨的部分挑戰是，因為你的本益比相當低，我想你們也會同意這一點，你的資本支出前景與你的營運現金流大致相符。我意識到，如果你的利潤率更高，你就可以抵銷其中的一部分。但我認為投資人所說的是，嘿，為什麼我們不能看到更平衡的資本配置策略，也許可以減少一點資本支出？

And I think maybe investors are a little bit frustrated that with the Boeing delivery delays, the MAX 10 issues, you guys didn't back off capital spending a little bit more. So can you put that in context for folks and why taking so many aircraft in the future should be relatively beneficial?

我認為，也許投資者會感到有點沮喪，因為波音交付延遲、MAX 10 問題，你們沒有進一步削減資本支出。那麼，您能否將這一點放在人們的背景下，以及為什麼未來乘坐這麼多飛機應該相對有利？

Thanks, Brandon. Really appreciate the question, and I 100% understand where you're coming from. I care very deeply about creating shareholder value and free cash flow, driving free cash flow to shareholders over time. It's critical to driving our multiple higher. We get that. But our United Next strategy is working. Our confidence that based on the relative margins, the divergence between the haves and the haves-nots, it's never been wider. So all of the evidence -- it's not about being in a tunnel and wondering what that light in front of you is. That light in front of us is very bright, and it's a sunny day.

謝謝，布蘭登。非常感謝這個問題，我 100% 理解你的想法。我非常關心創造股東價值和自由現金流，隨著時間的推移為股東帶來自由現金流。這對於提高我們的倍數至關重要。我們明白了。但我們的 United Next 策略正在發揮作用。我們相信，基於相對利潤率以及富人和窮人之間的差距，這種差距從未如此之大。所以所有的證據——並不是在隧道裡想知道你面前的光是什麼。我們面前的光非常明亮，而且是一個陽光明媚的日子。

We don't know exactly how much longer the tunnel is, but we're coming out the other side in a very strong competitive position with a premium product that can't be copied and emulated by competitors, with moats around our business that are going to drive higher margins. And so as those margins increase, we're going to have higher free cash flow, and you're going to see those returns to our shareholders. I'd ask for a little bit more patience as we drive through. But all evidence is that the strategy is working, and therefore, you're not going to see us pull back.

我們不知道隧道到底有多長，但我們正以非常強大的競爭地位走出另一邊，擁有競爭對手無法複製和模仿的優質產品，我們的業務周圍有護城河將推動更高的利潤率。因此，隨著利潤率的增加，我們將擁有更高的自由現金流，並且您將看到我們股東的回報。當我們開車經過時，我希望大家多一點耐心。但所有證據都表明該策略正在發揮作用，因此，你不會看到我們撤退。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Savi Syth, Raymond James.

薩維·賽斯，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Just on the Pacific comments made earlier, I realize that Pacific is not kind of back to where it was in 2019. But the mix there is different, notably like China is a lot lower. Are there any kind of meaningful implications on that mix change? And just how are you thinking about -- is there an opportunity for China to be much stronger than this? Or do you think this is kind of the new normal?

嘿，大家早安。就之前對太平洋地區的評論而言，我意識到太平洋地區並沒有回到 2019 年的水平。這種組合變化是否有任何有意義的影響？您如何看待中國是否有機會變得比這更強大？或者您認為這是新常態嗎？

So I think it's the new normal. Demand for China is down dramatically than where it was in 2019, and it's also difficult to fly there because of the lack of Russian overflight ability. So those two combinations just make this the new normal. And so we've adjust to -- I think we're back to pre-pandemic capacity. We've reallocated the capacity, I think, in a more profitable way.

所以我認為這是新常態。對中國的需求比 2019 年大幅下降，而且由於缺乏俄羅斯飛越能力，飛往中國也很困難。因此，這兩種組合使這成為新常態。所以我們已經適應了——我認為我們已經回到了大流行前的能力。我認為，我們已經以更有利可圖的方式重新分配了產能。

Pacific is generating a solid margin. Obviously, the negative RASMs, particularly driven by China as China has fallen back to normal revenue performance, caused year-over-year numbers for the Pacific to look a little funny. We can lap that later this year, and we'll be definitely, I think, beyond that after Q4.

太平洋航空​​正在創造可觀的利潤率。顯然，負面的RASM，特別是由中國推動的，因為中國已經恢復到正常的收入表現，導致太平洋地區的同比數據看起來有點搞笑。我們可以在今年稍後實現這一目標，我認為，我們肯定會在第四季之後超越這一目標。

Very helpful. Thank you, Andrew. And maybe if I can ask just on the domestic market. Like last year, there were a lot of kind of domestic players hurting and maybe an overcapacity situation, but United didn't really experience it. I'm just curious about what might be different like second half '23 versus what you're seeing today. Is that just a composition of the capacity? Is it kind of passenger behavior? Is it pricing behavior? Just why is it -- why are you seeing the pain a little bit more today than -- and not necessarily in the second half of last year?

很有幫助。謝謝你，安德魯。也許我可以只問國內市場。和去年一樣，有很多國內球員受傷，也許還有產能過剩的情況，但曼聯並沒有真正經歷過。我只是好奇 23 年下半年與你們今天看到的情況可能會有所不同。這只是容量的組成嗎？這是一種乘客行為嗎？是定價行為嗎？到底為什麼──為什麼你今天看到的痛苦比去年下半年多一點──而不一定是去年下半年？

Well, I think it's all of the above, all those issues you just said. We've worked very hard to insulate ourselves from the changes, sometimes not very sound changes that are being made in the industry. And I think we did a great job of insuring ourselves against that. But it's not 100% insurance plan. And in this particular quarter, the capacity growth was just so significant that it pressured yield in a way that it didn't, I mean, for example just in Q1.

嗯，我想就是以上所有的，所有你剛才說的問題。我們非常努力地保護自己免受行業中正在發生的變化的影響，有時這些變化並不是非常合理的變化。我認為我們在確保自己免受這種影響方面做得很好。但這不是100%的保險計劃。在這個特定的季度，產能成長如此顯著，以至於它以某種方式對收益率造成壓力，我的意思是，例如在第一季。

And our schedule changes in Q1, if you look at our RASM change domestically in Q1, along with the Atlantic, our schedule changes were incredibly effective, particularly during the off peak period and maybe less effective in a peak period as Q2. And that's one of the reasons I think we're excited to see how Q4 turns out because not only we've taken the same recipe book for Q1 and put it into Q4, which, again, had RASM changes that I don't think anybody in the industry expected out of United, but this time, the industry itself is, I think, even remarkably more different in Q4 of this year than it was in Q1 in how it's reacted and how it's changed. And again, it's changing because that flying has extremely negative margins by many of our competitors. So that's a long answer to your, I think, very simple question.

我們在第一季度的日程安排發生了變化，如果你看看我們在第一季度國內的RASM 變化，以及大西洋航線，我們的日程安排變化非常有效，特別是在非高峰期，而在第二季度的高峰期可能效果較差。我認為這就是我們很高興看到第四季度結果的原因之一，因為我們不僅為第一季度採用了相同的食譜書並將其放入第四季度，其中再次進行了我認為沒有的 RASM 更改業內的任何人都對美聯航抱有期望，但我認為，這一次，行業本身在今年第四季度的反應和變化方面與第一季相比更加不同。再說一次，情況正在發生變化，因為我們的許多競爭對手的飛行利潤率極低。我認為這是你非常簡單的問題的一個很長的答案。

That was a very sufficient answer. Thank you.

這是一個非常充分的答案。謝謝。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧尚克，摩根士丹利。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just a couple of follow-ups here. I know you said you didn't want to commit to your own 4Q capacity plans. But do you have a sense of how much industry capacity is still needed to come out for the fourth quarter to get that demand and supply in balance, especially kind of that would help push your guidance up to the top half of the range?

謝謝。大家，早安。這裡只是一些後續行動。我知道您說過您不想承諾自己的第四季產能計畫。但您是否知道第四季度仍需要釋放多少行業產能才能實現供需平衡，特別是這將有助於將您的指導提高到範圍的上半部分？

I can't -- I don't know for sure. What I would tell you is our expectation is Q4 domestic capacity to be up approximately 2%. A little above or a little below is kind of our expectation.

我不能——我不確定。我要告訴你的是，我們預計第四季國內產能將成長約 2%。稍微高於或低於一點是我們的期望。

Understood. That's helpful. And maybe the second one, I think it's pretty clear that investors are looking forward to your Investor Day as a pretty significant catalyst for the stock, especially kind of for long-term earnings and kind of the updated United Next targets. Do you have a sense of when the timing of that would be and kind of when we'll hear more about that?

明白了。這很有幫助。也許是第二個，我認為很明顯，投資者期待投資者日作為股票的一個相當重要的催化劑，特別是對於長期收益和更新的 United Next 目標。您知道什麼時候會發生這種情況嗎？

Hey, Ravi, thanks for the question. We don't have a date scheduled yet. We're working on it. We are still targeting later this year. And we'll be back if and when we schedule and finalize that date.

嘿，拉維，謝謝你的提問。我們還沒有安排日期。我們正在努力。我們的目標仍然是今年晚些時候。如果我們安排並最終確定該日期，我們就會回來。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Tom Fitzgerald, TD Cowen.

湯姆·菲茨杰拉德，TD·考恩。

Hi, everyone. Thanks for the time. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about connected media and what the feedback from customers have been, what the feedback from brands have been and just the timeline for that business to ramp.

大家好。謝謝你的時間。我想知道您是否可以談談互聯媒體以及客戶的反饋是什麼，品牌的反饋是什麼以及該業務發展的時間表。

Before Andrew answers the question, I'll use this, Tom, since you've replaced her to say, yes, big shoes to fill in Helane. I wish her the best. I'm jealous of all her travels. She tells me she's going to Greenland. I don't know if she's listening. Maybe she's already in Greenland, but I can't get the conference call there. And I hope she still continue to send me book recommendations. Andrew?

在安德魯回答問題之前，我會用這個，湯姆，因為你已經代替她說，是的，大鞋子來填補海倫。我希望她一切都好。我嫉妒她所有的旅行。她告訴我她要去格陵蘭島。我不知道她是否在聽。也許她已經在格陵蘭島了，但我無法在那裡參加電話會議。我希望她仍然繼續推薦書籍給我。安德魯？

Great. On connected media, first, I think it's important that from a commercial perspective, we are always trying to innovate and come up with new things to drive earnings. And there's a lot of things on our book here that we haven't even begun to discuss, but connected media is one that we have announced. We expect a significant ramp up next year, and we will discuss it in a lot more detail at the Investor Day. But it's going to be innovative. It's going to be really meaningful and really impactful for United Airlines going forward.

偉大的。在互聯媒體方面，首先，我認為從商業角度來看，我們一直在努力創新並推出新事物來推動獲利，這一點很重要。我們的書中有很多內容我們甚至還沒有開始討論，但互聯媒體是我們已經宣布的內容之一。我們預計明年將大幅成長，我們將在投資者日更詳細地討論這個問題。但這將是創新的。這對於聯合航空的未來將非常有意義且具有影響力。

Okay. Thanks very much. Excited to hear more. And then just a quick one. Is there any noise around lapping the Tel Aviv flying in the fourth quarter this year that we should think about in our models? Thanks very much again.

好的。非常感謝。很高興聽到更多。然後是快速的。今年第四季特拉維夫航班飛行是否存在任何值得我們在模型中考慮的噪音？再次非常感謝。

I don't think so. I mean, Tel Aviv, when we pulled it out, it was obviously about 2% of United Airlines. I think that number surprised everybody. And obviously, it is lucrative flying for United, just to say the least, and so its loss was significant. I think we've worked on reestablishing and service it safely for our colleagues, and we're flying it double daily today. And we intend to continue to expand to Tel Aviv and get back to our normal schedule. But we don't think resuming Tel Aviv is going to be a drag on RASM, if that's the heart of your question.

我不這麼認為。我的意思是，特拉維夫，當我們把它拿出來時，它顯然是聯合航空的 2% 左右。我認為這個數字讓所有人都感到驚訝。顯然，至少可以說，飛行對曼聯來說是利潤豐厚的，所以它的損失是巨大的。我認為我們已經努力為我們的同事安全地重建和維護它，並且我們今天每天飛行兩次。我們打算繼續擴展到特拉維夫並恢復正常的日程安排。但我們認為恢復特拉維夫不會對 RASM 構成拖累，如果這是您問題的核心的話。

We will now switch to the media portion of the call. (Operator Instructions)

我們現在將切換到通話的媒體部分。 （操作員說明）

Mary Schlangenstein, Bloomberg News.

瑪麗‧施蘭根斯坦，彭博新聞。

Thank you. Scott, you've been pretty vocal about your views on the ULCCs and the low-margin airlines in the industry. But I'm wondering, given the comment earlier about the fact that they seem to be complicating their models now when their model is originally built on simplicity, do you see that as being sort of an extra step that they're taking that may further speed their demise or whatever their eventual future is?

謝謝。 Scott，您一直非常直言不諱地表達了您對 ULCC 和業內低利潤航空公司的看法。但我想知道，考慮到先前的評論，即當他們的模型最初建立在簡單性之上時，他們現在似乎正在使模型變得複雜，你是否認為這是他們正在採取的額外步驟，可能會進一步加速他們的滅亡或無論他們最終的未來是什麼？

Mary, it's Andrew. Let me try to take it, and Scott will correct me where I'm wrong. I think like when you -- first of all, you have to understand that the world has changed fundamentally. With no-change fees in Basic Economy, things are just not as they were pre-pandemic. And I think this core fact is often ignored in how people kind of set up the answer to what's going on today.

瑪麗，是安德魯。讓我試著接受它，斯科特會糾正我的錯誤。我認為，就像當你——首先，你必須明白世界已經發生了根本性的變化。由於基本經濟艙不收取任何變更費用，情況與疫情前不同。我認為這個核心事實在人們如何為當今正在發生的事情尋找答案時經常被忽略。

But I'll give you a rundown of what I think the playbook is, and Scott can kind of add to it. First, when you face this type of problem, airlines generally push to grow out of the problem, but that usually doesn't work. And this happened in the previous quarters. And I can recall this back when I worked for Continental Airlines in the late 1990s, quite frankly, in regard to something we called cow lite at the time. I was just a junior analyst. I remember it very well.

但我會給你一個我認為的劇本的概要，斯科特可以對其進行補充。首先，當遇到此類問題時，航空公司通常會努力解決問題，但這通常不起作用。這發生在前幾個季度。坦白說，我還記得 20 世紀 90 年代末我在大陸航空公司工作時的情況，當時我們稱之為「cow lite」。我只是個初級分析師。我記得很清楚。

The second step is network churn, where you think, well, we picked the wrong markets and we can fix that. But the next set of markets is usually worse than these markets you're flying today. Then the next change is business model changes, right? We noticed airline X is doing something different from us. Let's match.

第二步是網路流失，你會想，好吧，我們選擇了錯誤的市場，我們可以解決這個問題。但下一組市場通常比您今天飛行的這些市場更糟。那麼下一個變化就是商業模式的變化，對嗎？我們注意到 X 航空公司正在做一些與我們不同的事情。我們來比賽吧。

And that's really hard and slow. I think the next step is that everybody thinks, well, let's go premium. But that's a generational adjustment that just does not occur over a few quarters. And then the next one is let's push capacity on good days and months, but cut hard in off peak. And that's really hard to do because it's an inefficient use of assets. And then the next one is closing schedule changes because you're really concerned about your P&L and what's going on.

這真的很難而且很慢。我認為下一步是每個人都認為，好吧，讓我們走向高端。但這是一種世代調整，不會在幾個季度內發生。接下來，我們要在天氣好的日子和月份提高運力，但在非尖峰時段大力削減運力。這確實很難做到，因為這是對資產的低效率利用。然後下一個是結束時間表的變化，因為你真的很關心你的損益表和正在發生的事情。

And I think we see a lot of closing schedule changes today from many of our competitors. And then the last part is you just shrink. And so I think these business models are simplistic, and it'll be very difficult to make complex without adding a lot of costs. So hopefully, that helps answer the question. Scott, anything to add to that?

我認為今天我們看到許多競爭對手的關閉時間表發生了很多變化。最後一部分就是你縮小了。所以我認為這些商業模式很簡單，在不增加大量成本的情況下很難變得複雜。希望這有助於回答這個問題。史考特，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

The play is almost over.

戲快結束了。

There you go.

就這樣吧。

Claire Bushey, Financial Times.

克萊爾‧布希，《金融時報》。

This is a question for Scott. How worried are you that delays by manufacturers in delivering new, more fuel-efficient jets is hampering the industry's progress on cutting emissions as carriers are forced to fly older planes for longer?

這是斯科特的問題。您是否擔心製造商延遲交付新型、更省油的飛機會阻礙該行業在減排方面取得的進展，因為航空公司被迫更長時間地駕駛舊飛機？

I don't think that's really the issue. I think the only way to decarbonize aviation really is sustainable aviation fuel. And the ability to get more efficient airplanes is nice, but that's sort of measured in the 1%, 2% kind of improvement across the industry. Really, getting a sustainable and viable SAF industry is how you get to ultimately 100%, which is our goal to get to 100% grade.

我認為這不是真正的問題。我認為真正實現航空脫碳的唯一方法是永續航空燃料。能夠獲得更有效率的飛機固然很好，但這只是以整個產業 1%、2% 的改進來衡量的。事實上，建立一個可持續且可行的 SAF 產業才是最終達到 100% 的目標，這也是我們達到 100% 等級的目標。

That's why United is leading around the world, our United aviation fund. We're investing -- this is an industry that's still being built. It's in the nascent phases today. It's in the investment. It's in the R&D. It's in the research. We understand the chemistry. We understand the technology, but we're now at the point where we've got to commercialize that. And so I think that keeping our eye on that ball is critical to decarbonizing what is an otherwise really hard to decarbonize industry.

這就是為什麼美聯航——我們的美聯航航空基金——在全球處於領先地位。我們正在投資——這是一個仍在建設中的行業。今天它正處於萌芽階段。這是在投資中。它在研發中。這是在研究中。我們了解化學。我們了解這項技術，但我們現在必須將其商業化。因此，我認為，密切關注這個問題對於使這個行業脫碳至關重要，否則這個行業很難脫碳。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I will now turn the call back over to Kristina Edwards for closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給克里斯蒂娜·愛德華茲（Kristina Edwards）做總結發言。

Thanks, Brianna, and thanks for everyone joining the call today. Please contact Investor and Media Relations if you have any further questions. Hope everyone has a great summer and look forward to talking to you next quarter.

謝謝布麗安娜，也謝謝今天加入電話會議的所有人。如果您還有任何疑問，請聯絡投資者和媒體關係部門。希望每個人都有一個愉快的夏天，並期待下個季度與您交談。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。