希捷科技 (STX) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本季營收達 26.3 億美元,年增 21%、季增 8%;非 GAAP 毛利率創新高達 40.1%,非 GAAP 營業利潤率達 29%,非 GAAP EPS 為 2.61 美元,超越指引高標
    • 下季(12 月季)營收指引為 27 億美元(正負 1 億),年增 16%;非 GAAP 營業利潤率預期擴大至約 30%,非 GAAP EPS 指引為 2.75 美元(正負 0.2)
    • 公司宣布季度股息上調約 3%,至每股 0.74 美元,反映對現金流與執行力的信心
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 全球雲端服務供應商(CSP)需求強勁,推動高容量 nearline 硬碟銷售,資料中心市場佔總營收 80%
      • AI 應用(特別是 AI inferencing)帶動非結構化資料爆炸性成長,推升高容量儲存需求
      • HAMR 技術(Mozaic 平台)推進順利,5 家全球 CSP 已完成 3+TB/碟產品認證,1 百萬顆 Mozaic 硬碟於本季出貨
      • 與全球資料中心客戶簽訂長約,2026 年產能幾乎全數預訂,2027 年亦有高度能見度
      • 產品組合持續向高容量、高毛利產品轉換,帶動獲利能力提升
    • 風險:
      • 供給持續吃緊,產能擴充主要仰賴產品轉換而非新增單位產能,若轉換進度不如預期恐影響出貨
      • HAMR 新世代產品良率與量產速度需持續提升,否則影響成本結構與供應彈性
      • 邊緣 IoT 市場季節性波動,雖佔比下降但仍有影響
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 總出貨 182 exabytes,年增 22%,主要供應資料中心客戶
    • 資料中心營收 21 億美元,季增 13%、年增 34%,佔總營收 80%
    • 資料中心出貨 159 exabytes,前期為 137 exabytes
    • 近 80% nearline 出貨容量達 24TB 以上,平均 nearline 容量年增 26%
    • 邊緣 IoT 營收 5.15 億美元,季減,預期 12 月季有季節性回升
  4. 財務預測
    • 12 月季營收預估 27 億美元(正負 1 億)
    • 12 月季非 GAAP 營業利潤率預估約 30%
    • 2026 年度 CapEx 預計佔營收 4%~6%,9 月季 CapEx 為 1.05 億美元(約 4%)
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 供需吃緊下是否考慮擴產?HAMR 客戶採用進度有無超預期或落後?
      A: 產能擴充主要靠產品轉換提升 exabyte 產能,單位產能未大幅增加。HAMR 客戶採用進度符合預期,5 家 CSP 已認證,轉換速度略快於原先規劃。
    • Q: 近兩季增量毛利率達 60~70%,未來能否維持高於 50%?
      A: 近期因高毛利產品組合與 HAMR 驅動,短期內表現優於長期模型,但每季組合與議價不同,長期仍以分析師日所提 50% 為基準,短期有望持續優於此水準。
    • Q: HAMR 轉換下,2026 年 blended cost down(成本下降)能否達到 mid-teens?
      A: 不針對 2026 年成本具體指引,但高容量產品組合轉換將持續帶動每 TB 成本下降,HAMR 40TB 產品認證將進一步推動成本優化。
    • Q: AI inferencing 強勁,對未來需求能見度與季節性有何看法?
      A: AI 應用(特別是影片內容)推動資料量爆發,需求能見度高但難精確預測。資料中心佔比高,未來季節性波動將較過去低。
    • Q: HAMR 產品良率與毛利率是否已與傳統產品持平?
      A: HAMR 4TB/碟產品仍在良率提升階段,尚未完全與 PMR 持平,團隊正全力加速良率提升。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the Seagate Technology fiscal first quarter 2026 conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

    歡迎參加希捷科技2026財年第一季財報電話會議。(操作說明)請注意,本次活動正在錄影。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Shanye Hudson, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Shanye Hudson。請繼續。

  • Shanye Hudson - Senior VP of Investor Relations and Treasury

    Shanye Hudson - Senior VP of Investor Relations and Treasury

  • Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to today's call. Joining me are Dave Mosley, Seagate's Chair and Chief Executive Officer; and Gianluca Romano, our Chief Financial Officer. We've posted our earnings press release and detailed supplemental information for our September quarter results on the Investors section of our website.

    謝謝。大家好,歡迎參加今天的電話會議。與我一同出席的還有希捷董事長兼執行長戴夫·莫斯利,以及我們的財務長詹盧卡·羅馬諾。我們已在網站的投資者關係版塊發布了九月份季度業績的新聞稿和詳細補充資訊。

  • During today's call, we will refer to GAAP and non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP figures are reconciled to GAAP figures in the earnings press release posted on our website and included in our Form 8-K. We've not reconciled certain non-GAAP outlook measures because material items that may impact these measures are out of our control and or cannot be reasonably predicted. Therefore, a reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP measures is not available without unreasonable efforts.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們將提及GAAP和非GAAP指標。非GAAP資料與GAAP資料的調節表已在公司網站上發布的獲利新聞稿中公佈,並包含在我們的8-K表格中。我們尚未對某些非GAAP展望指標進行調整,因為可能影響這些指標的重大事項超出我們的控制範圍,或無法合理預測。因此,若不付出不合理的努力,則無法將其與相應的 GAAP 指標進行核對。

  • Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and assumptions based on information available to us as of today and should not be relied upon as of any subsequent date. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements and are subject to risks and uncertainties associated with our business.

    在開始之前,我想提醒各位,今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述反映了管理層基於截至今日我們所掌握的信息而作出的當前觀點和假設,不應被視為對任何後續日期的依據。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性聲明中包含或暗示的結果有重大差異,並且會受到與我們業務相關的風險和不確定性的影響。

  • To learn more about the risks, uncertainties and other factors that may affect our future business results, please refer to the press release issued today and our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q, as well as the supplemental information, all of which may be found on the Investors section of our website.

    如需了解可能影響我們未來業務業績的風險、不確定性及其他因素,請參閱今天發布的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,包括我們最新的 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格季度報告,以及補充信息,所有這些文件都可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • With that, I'll hand the call over to Dave.

    這樣,我就把電話交給戴夫了。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Shanye, and hello, everyone. Seagate delivered a very strong start to fiscal 2026. Revenue grew 21% year over year. Non-GAAP gross margin set a new company record at 40.1% and non-GAAP operating margin climbed to 29%, a level last seen in fiscal 2012. Non-GAAP EPS exceeded the high end of our guidance range, underscoring our focus on expanding profitability.

    謝謝珊妮,大家好。希捷在 2026 財年開局非常強勁。營收年增21%。非GAAP毛利率創下公司新紀錄,達到40.1%;非GAAP營業利益率攀升至29%,達到2012財年以來的最高水準。非GAAP每股盈餘超過了我們預期範圍的上限,凸顯了我們對擴大獲利能力的重視。

  • Today, we announced an increase to our quarterly dividend of approximately 3%, reflecting confidence in our execution and ongoing sustainability of our cash flow generation capabilities as we leverage our leading HAMR technology and a strengthening demand environment for high-capacity hard drives.

    今天,我們宣布將季度股息提高約 3%,這反映了我們對自身執行力和現金流產生能力持續性的信心,因為我們利用了領先的 HAMR 技術,並且高容量硬碟的需求環境也在不斷增強。

  • Demand strength was led by global cloud service providers, and we also saw meaningful sequential revenue growth from enterprise customers in the September quarter. The data center end market, which is comprised of nearline sales into cloud, enterprise and VIA customers represented 80% of overall revenue. Amid this improving demand backdrop, our high capacity nearline production is largely committed under build-to-order contracts through calendar 2026.

    全球雲端服務供應商引領了需求強勁成長,我們在9月份的季度中也看到了企業客戶帶來的顯著的環比收入成長。資料中心終端市場(包括雲端、企業和 VIA 客戶的近線銷售)佔總收入的 80%。在這種需求不斷改善的背景下,我們的高產能近線生產已基本透過訂單生產的合約安排,一直持續到 2026 年。

  • Additionally, longer-term agreements that we have with our global data center customers provide clear visibility through calendar 2027, reinforcing our view that these favorable demand conditions will persist. We remain focused on executing our HAMR-based product road map to support our customers growing exabyte needs and continue working with them to transition to higher capacity drives.

    此外,我們與全球資料中心客戶簽訂的長期協議,讓我們能夠清楚地看到到 2027 年的市場前景,這進一步強化了我們對這些有利需求狀況將持續下去的看法。我們將繼續專注於執行基於 HAMR 的產品路線圖,以支援客戶不斷增長的 EB 級需求,並繼續與他們合作,過渡到更高容量的硬碟。

  • There is no question that AI is reshaping hard drive demand by elevating the economic value of data and data storage. This is evident by the growing demand for our high capacity nearline drives as customers continue to ramp investments in AI applications.

    毫無疑問,人工智慧正在透過提升資料和資料儲存的經濟價值來重塑硬碟需求。客戶不斷增加對人工智慧應用的投資,對我們高容量近線驅動器的需求也日益增長,足以證明這一點。

  • AI inferencing is set to inflect and scale rapidly, further increasing data's value. Inference consumes and generates large volumes of data, which is then stored, monitored, validated, and reintegrated into an infinite training loop. We are already seeing the positive impact of this trend as global CSPs deploy large-scale inferencing applications that rely on multimodal inputs such as text, audio, and video.

    人工智慧推理技術必將迅速發展壯大,進一步提升數據的價值。推理過程會消耗和產生大量數據,然後對這些數據進行儲存、監控、驗證,並重新整合到一個無限的訓練循環中。我們已經看到這一趨勢的積極影響,全球通訊服務提供者正在部署依賴文字、音訊和視訊等多模態輸入的大規模推理應用程式。

  • Using monthly token consumption as a proxy for inferencing adoption, one major hyperscaler reported a 50-fold increase in the span of a year. This explosive growth is driving a sharp increase in unstructured data generation that creates demand for hard drive storage.

    一家大型超大規模資料中心以每月代幣消耗量作為推斷採用情況的指標,報告指出一年內成長了 50 倍。這種爆炸性增長導致非結構化資料生成量急劇增加,從而創造了對硬碟儲存的需求。

  • Video content is a major contributor of unstructured data and is driving considerable demand for hard drives today from social media platforms to content delivery networks and online marketing. AI-generated videos promise to further fuel demand growth. There are already numerous text-to-video tools that democratize creativity by letting anyone generate professional quality videos from text, images, or sketches.

    影片內容是非結構化資料的主要來源,如今從社群媒體平台到內容發行網路和線上行銷,都對硬碟產生了相當大的需求。人工智慧生成的影片有望進一步推動需求成長。目前已有許多文字轉視頻工具,讓任何人都能透過文字、圖像或草圖產生專業品質的視頻,從而實現創意民主化。

  • We see this trend already taking hold. For example, Google reports over 275 million videos were generated on its Veo platform within the first five months. With a one minute AI video being up to 20,000 times larger than a 1,000 word text file, the data storage implications are clear. The rapid adoption and growing capability of these tools are already having a positive impact on the demand for storage.

    我們已經看到這種趨勢正在形成。例如,Google報告稱,在其 Veo 平台上,短短五個月內就產生了超過 2.75 億個影片。一分鐘的 AI 影片的大小是 1000 字文字檔案的 20000 倍,資料儲存的影響顯而易見。這些工具的快速普及和日益增強的功能已經對儲存需求產生了積極影響。

  • Beyond the application space, we have discussed new storage use cases from emerging trends around hybrid cloud environments that enhance data security and compliance with data sovereignty regulations. Recently, Seagate partnered with a global CSP to develop a sovereign cloud solution for managing massive volumes of sensitive telemetry and sensor data collected from a fleet of autonomous vehicles. These type of data sets are subject to strict requirements and stipulate such data must be processed, stored, and managed locally.

    除了應用領域之外,我們還討論了混合雲環境等新興趨勢帶來的新的儲存用例,這些用例增強了資料安全性和對資料主權法規的遵守。最近,希捷與一家全球雲端服務供應商合作,開發了一種自主雲端解決方案,用於管理從自動駕駛車隊收集的大量敏感遙測和感測器資料。這類資料集受到嚴格的要求,規定此類資料必須在本地進行處理、儲存和管理。

  • As in any other data center, hard drives provide the ideal solution by meeting customer requirements for throughput, durability, and cost-efficient long-term data retention. As data generation explodes and new use cases emerge, Seagate is answering the call with a clear long-term road map to capture demand. Momentum continues to build for our HAMR-based Mozaic platforms, and we achieved several important milestones in the quarter consistent with what we discussed during our analyst event.

    與其他任何資料中心一樣,硬碟機能夠滿足客戶對吞吐量、耐用性和經濟高效的長期資料保存的要求,從而提供理想的解決方案。隨著數據生成量的爆炸性增長和新應用場景的不斷湧現,希捷正在透過清晰的長期路線圖來響應市場需求。我們基於 HAMR 的 Mozaic 平台的發展勢頭持續增強,並且我們在本季度實現了幾個重要的里程碑,這與我們在分析師活動中討論的內容一致。

  • We now have five global CSPs qualified on Mozaic 3+ terabyte per disk products, which can deliver capacities up to 36 terabytes per drive. We remain on track to qualify the remaining three global CSPs within the first half of calendar 2026.

    目前,我們已經有五家全球 CSP 獲得了 Mozaic 3+ TB/磁碟產品的認證,該產品每個硬碟可提供高達 36 TB 的容量。我們仍有望在 2026 年上半年完成剩餘三家全球 CSP 的資格認證。

  • Additionally, we shipped over 1 million Mozaic drives in the September quarter. These products are performing well in live production environments, and we are on pace to achieve 50% exabyte crossover on nearline HAMR drives in the second half of calendar 2026, and we started qualification with a second major CSP on the Mozaic 4+ terabyte per disk platform, with initial volume ramp starting in the first half of next calendar year.

    此外,我們在九月季度出貨了超過 100 萬個 Mozaic 硬碟。這些產品在實際生產環境中表現良好,我們預計在 2026 年下半年實現近線 HAMR 硬碟 50% EB 的交叉容量,並且我們已經開始對 Mozaic 4+ TB/磁碟平台的第二個主要 CSP 進行認證,初始產量將於明年上半年開始逐步提升。

  • This platform will offer capacities of up to 44 terabytes. Advancing aerial density is a key competitive advantage, not just for Seagate, but for the hard drive industry overall. We are leveraging our manufacturing expertise and advancements in technologies, including silicon photonics to pave the path to 10 terabytes per disc.

    該平台將提供高達 44 TB 的儲存容量。提高儲存密度是一項關鍵的競爭優勢,不僅對希捷公司而言如此,對整個硬碟產業也是如此。我們正在利用我們的製造專長和包括矽光子學在內的技術進步,為實現每張光碟 10 TB 的容量鋪平道路。

  • Our aerial density road map delivers a superior and sustainable TCO advantage for hard drives compared to alternative technologies well into the future. Customers clearly see the value of transitioning to higher capacity HAMR products as the most efficient way to support their rapidly expanding data storage needs in an AI-driven world.

    我們的空中密度路線圖為硬碟帶來了優於其他替代技術的卓越且可持續的整體擁有成本優勢,這種優勢將持續到未來很長一段時間。客戶清楚地認識到,在人工智慧驅動的世界中,過渡到更高容量的 HAMR 產品是支援其快速增長的資料儲存需求的最有效方式。

  • Wrapping up, the Seagate team continues to execute at an exceptional level. We are delivering on our target financial framework supported by a structurally improved business and a strong sustainable demand environment. We are advancing our HAMR led technology road map, which creates significant value for our customers and position Seagate for long-term success.

    綜上所述,希捷團隊持續保持著卓越的執行力。在業務結構改善和強勁可持續的需求環境的支持下,我們正在實現既定的財務目標。我們正在推進以 HAMR 為主導的技術路線圖,這將為我們的客戶創造巨大價值,並使希捷長期成功。

  • With the strength of our technology road map and the transformative impact of AI, we believe the best years are still ahead of us. I am proud of how our teams are rising to meet the opportunities ahead as we remain focused on delivering profitable revenue growth and expanding cash flow generation in fiscal '26 and beyond. I'd like to thank our employees, supply partners, and customers for their many contributions to our performance and to Seagate's ongoing success.

    憑藉我們強大的技術路線圖和人工智慧的變革性影響,我們相信最好的時光還在後頭。我為我們的團隊能夠抓住未來的機會而感到自豪,我們將繼續專注於在 2026 財年及以後實現盈利性收入增長並擴大現金流。我要感謝我們的員工、供應商合作夥伴和客戶,感謝他們為我們的業績和希捷的持續成功所做的諸多貢獻。

  • Let me now turn the call over to Gianluca.

    現在我把電話交給詹盧卡。

  • Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Dave. Our September quarter performance demonstrates strong operational execution and underscores the enhanced structural economics of our business model. We delivered revenue of $2.63 billion, up 8% sequentially and up 21% year over year.

    謝謝你,戴夫。我們九月的季度業績顯示了我們強大的營運執行力,並突顯了我們商業模式增強的結構性經濟效益。我們實現了 26.3 億美元的收入,季增 8%,年增 21%。

  • We achieved a record non-GAAP gross margin of 40.1%, up 220 basis points sequentially. And we expanded non-GAAP operating margin by 280 basis points to 29% sequentially. Our result in non-GAAP EPS was $2.61, exceeding the high end of our guided range. We have continued to execute our technology road map to support ongoing demand momentum for our higher capacity products.

    我們實現了創紀錄的非GAAP毛利率40.1%,季增220個基點。我們的非GAAP營業利潤率較上季成長280個基點至29%。我們以非GAAP準則計算的每股盈餘為2.61美元,超過了我們預期範圍的上限。我們持續推進技術路線圖的實施,以支援市場對我們高容量產品的持續需求。

  • In September quarter, we shipped 182 exabytes, up 22% year over year, with the vast majority of that volume delivered to global data center customers. As we shared last quarter, we will be discussing the business across two key markets: data center, which is comprised of nearline products and system that are sold into cloud, enterprise, and VIA customers and Edge IoT, which includes consumer and client-centric markets, along with network attached storage.

    9 月季度,我們的出貨量為 182 EB,年成長 22%,其中絕大部分交付給了全球資料中心客戶。正如我們上個季度所分享的,我們將討論兩個關鍵市場的業務:資料中心(包括銷售給雲端、企業和 VIA 客戶的近線產品和系統)和邊緣物聯網(包括以消費者和客戶為中心的市場以及網路附加儲存)。

  • In the September quarter, data center revenue represented 80% of our total revenue at $2.1 billion, up 13% sequentially and 34% year on year. Demand from global cloud customers continue to grow, and we also saw a notable improvement in the enterprise OEM markets. We project these positive trends to continue with cloud growth expected to outpace enterprise demand.

    9 月季度,資料中心營收占我們總營收的 80%,達到 21 億美元,季增 13%,年增 34%。全球雲端客戶的需求持續成長,我們也看到企業 OEM 市場出現了顯著改善。我們預計這些正面趨勢將持續下去,雲端運算的成長速度預計將超過企業需求。

  • Whether data store in public cloud, private cloud or on-premises, the shift from AI model training to influencing is driving the need for large capacity or drive storage. This includes everything from saving checkpoints to maintain model accuracy and integrity to storing the vast data sets required for effective influence results.

    無論資料儲存在公有雲、私有雲或本地,從 AI 模型訓練到影響的轉變正在推動對大容量儲存或硬碟儲存的需求。這包括從保存檢查點以保持模型準確性和完整性,到儲存有效影響結果所需的大量資料集的一切。

  • In the September quarter, we shipped 159 exabytes into data center customers, up from 137 exabytes in the prior period. Cloud exabyte demand increased for the ninth consecutive quarter, resulting in close to 80% of nearline volume on dried capacity at or above 24 terabyte as customers continue to mix up to higher capacity drives. Over the past year, average nearline drive capacity have increased by 26%, which is a primary contributor to our exabyte volume growth.

    9 月季度,我們向資料中心客戶交付了 159 艾字節的數據,高於上一季的 137 艾字節。雲端 EB 級需求連續第九個季度成長,導致近線容量的近 80% 達到或超過 24 TB,因為客戶繼續向更高容量的硬碟過渡。過去一年,近線驅動器的平均容量增加了 26%,這是我們 EB 級容量成長的主要貢獻因素。

  • Amid tight supply condition, we are partnering closely with data center customers to support and where possible, accelerate their qualification timeline on our high-capacity Mozaic products. As Dave highlighted earlier, a majority of the largest cloud customers in the world are now qualified on our HAMR-based Mozaic drives, and we are continuing to ramp these products to support customer demand.

    在供應緊張的情況下,我們正與資料中心客戶緊密合作,以支援他們並盡可能加快他們對我們高容量 Mozaic 產品的認證進度。正如戴夫之前所強調的那樣,世界上大多數最大的雲端客戶現在都通過了我們基於 HAMR 技術的 Mozaic 硬碟的認證,我們正在繼續擴大這些產品的規模以滿足客戶的需求。

  • The strong data center growth that I just described more than offset lower sequential sales in the Edge IoT market, which made up the remaining 20% of revenue at $515 million. We are expecting some seasonal improvement in Edge IoT revenue in the December quarter from both VIA Edge and consumer products.

    我剛才描述的資料中心強勁成長足以抵銷邊緣物聯網市場銷售額的環比下降,後者佔剩餘 20% 的收入,為 5.15 億美元。我們預計 VIA Edge 和消費性產品在 12 月季度的邊緣物聯網收入將出現一些季節性增長。

  • Moving on to the rest of the income statement. Non-GAAP gross profit increased to $1.1 billion, up 14% quarter over quarter and 46% compared with the prior year period. We expanded non-GAAP gross margin to 40.1%, which represents an incremental margin of nearly 70%. This margin growth reflects the benefit of increased adoption of our latest generation products and ongoing execution of our pricing strategy. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $291 million, up 2% quarter over quarter and in line with our expectations.

    接下來來看損益表的其餘部分。非GAAP毛利增加至11億美元,較上季成長14%,較去年同期成長46%。我們將非GAAP毛利率提高到40.1%,這意味著毛利率增加了近70%。這項利潤成長反映了我們最新一代產品日益普及以及我們定價策略持續執行所帶來的益處。非GAAP營運費用為2.91億美元,季增2%,符合我們的預期。

  • The combination of strong top-line growth and significant financial leverage drove a 19% improvement in operating profit to $763 million. Other income and expense were $74 million, and we are currently projecting OI&E to be essentially flat in the December quarter.

    強勁的營收成長和顯著的財務槓桿作用相結合,推動營業利潤成長 19%,達到 7.63 億美元。其他收入和支出為 7,400 萬美元,我們目前預計 12 月季度的其他收入和支出將基本持平。

  • We grew non-GAAP net income to $583 million, with corresponding non-GAAP EPS of $2.61 per share. Based on tax expenses of $106 million and a diluted share count of approximately 223 million shares, including the net impact of our 2028 convertible notes of approximately 7 million shares.

    我們實現了非GAAP淨收入成長至5.83億美元,相應的非GAAP每股收益為2.61美元。根據 1.06 億美元的稅收支出和約 2.23 億股的稀釋股份數計算,其中包括我們 2028 年可轉換債券約 700 萬股的淨影響。

  • Turning now to cash flow and the balance sheet. We invested $105 million in capital expenditures for the September quarter or roughly 4% of revenue. For fiscal '26, we anticipate capital expenditures to be inside our target range of 4% to 6% of revenue, while we continue maintaining capital discipline. Free cash flow generation was flat quarter over quarter at $427 million, including the substantial variable compensation payout we discussed on our July earnings call.

    接下來我們來看現金流量表和資產負債表。我們在9月份的季度資本支出中投資了1.05億美元,約佔收入的4%。對於 2026 財年,我們預期資本支出將控制在收入的 4% 至 6% 的目標範圍內,同時我們將繼續保持資本紀律。自由現金流環比持平,為 4.27 億美元,其中包括我們在 7 月財報電話會議上討論的大量可變薪酬支出。

  • Looking ahead, we expect free cash flow generation to expand in the December quarter. We returned $153 million to shareholders through dividend. And as Dave noted earlier, we are increasing our quarterly dividend by approximately 3% to $0.74 per share. We deployed $29 million to repurchase shares of our common stock at an average price of $187 per share. We will continue to opportunistically repurchase shares and anticipate share repurchase activities to vary from quarter to quarter.

    展望未來,我們預計12月季度自由現金流將有所成長。我們透過分紅向股東返還了1.53億美元。正如戴夫之前提到的,我們將季度股息提高約 3%,至每股 0.74 美元。我們投入了 2,900 萬美元,以每股 187 美元的平均價格回購了我們的普通股。我們將繼續擇機回購股票,並預期股票回購活動將因季度而異。

  • We remain committed to returning at least 75% of free cash flow to shareholders over time. Cash and cash equivalents increased 25% sequentially to close the September quarter with ample liquidity of $2.4 billion, including our undrawn revolving credit facility of $1.3 billion. We exited the quarter with gross debt of approximately $5 billion, a net leverage ratio of 1.5 times based on adjusted EBITDA of $831 million for the September quarter, up 19% quarter over quarter and up 67% year on year.

    我們始終致力於在未來將至少 75% 的自由現金流返還給股東。截至 9 月季末,現金及現金等價物較上季成長 25%,流動資金充足,達 24 億美元,其中包括我們未提取的 13 億美元循環信貸額度。本季末,我們的總債務約為 50 億美元,淨槓桿率為 1.5 倍,9 月季度的調整後 EBITDA 為 8.31 億美元,環比增長 19%,年增 67%。

  • We are pleased that our strong execution is being recognized with S&P upgrading our credit rating earlier this month. Looking ahead, we expect net leverage ratio will continue to trend lower as profitability increases in the coming quarters. Additionally, we are exploring opportunities to further reduce debt, supporting the positive leverage ratio trajectory.

    我們很高興標普在本月初提高了我們的信用評級,這反映了我們強大的執行力。展望未來,我們預期隨著未來幾季獲利能力的提高,淨槓桿率將持續呈下降趨勢。此外,我們正在探索進一步降低債務的機會,以支持槓桿率的積極成長。

  • Turning now to the December quarter outlook. The demand environment remains strong, particularly among global cloud data centers. We expect to increase revenue and expand margins as these customers continue to shift to our next-generation storage solutions to support their increasing demand. We expect December quarter revenue to be in a range of $2.7 billion plus or minus $100 million, which represents a 16% year-over-year improvement at the midpoint.

    現在來看看12月季度的展望。市場需求依然強勁,尤其是全球雲端資料中心領域。我們預計,隨著這些客戶繼續轉向我們的下一代儲存解決方案以滿足其不斷增長的需求,我們將提高收入並擴大利潤率。我們預計 12 月季度的營收將在 27 億美元上下浮動 1 億美元之間,以中間值計算,年增 16%。

  • Non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to remain relatively flat at approximately $290 million. Based on the midpoint of our revenue guidance, non-GAAP operating margin is expected to expand to around 30%. Non-GAAP EPS is expected to be $2.75, plus or minus $0.20, with on a tax rate of about 16% and a non-GAAP diluted share count of 227 million shares, including estimated dilution from our 2028 convertible notes of 10 million shares.

    非GAAP營運費用預計將保持相對穩定,約2.9億美元。根據我們營收預期的中位數,非GAAP營業利潤率預計將擴大至30%左右。非GAAP每股盈餘預計為2.75美元,上下浮動0.20美元,稅率約16%,非GAAP稀釋後股份數為2.27億股,其中包括預計2028年發行的1000萬股可轉換債券的稀釋。

  • As demonstrated by our September quarter results, Seagate is delivering on our financial commitments, reinforcing our track record of operational execution. Our performance is underpinned by a strong product road map that offer enterprise exabyte scale storage solutions, enabling them to maximize the potential of their data. We strength position Seagate to drive meaningful value for both customers and shareholders.

    從我們九月的季度業績可以看出,希捷正在履行我們的財務承諾,鞏固了我們在營運執行方面的良好記錄。我們強大的產品路線圖為我們良好的業績提供了保障,該路線圖提供企業級 EB 級儲存解決方案,使客戶能夠最大限度地發揮其資料的潛力。我們憑藉著強大的實力,使希捷能夠為客戶和股東創造有意義的價值。

  • Operator, let's open the call up for questions.

    接線員,現在開始接受提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Mark Newman, Bernstein.

    馬克紐曼,伯恩斯坦。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hi, thanks very much for taking the question and congrats on a great quarter. The question was really, if you look at -- you commented at the beginning at the strong orders. And it seems like you have order backlog through to -- I think you mentioned through to 2027.

    您好,非常感謝您回答這個問題,並祝賀您本季取得了優異的成績。問題其實是,如果你仔細觀察──你一開始就評論了強烈的指令。而且,你們的訂單積壓似乎一直持續到——我想你提到過一直持續到 2027 年。

  • And the supply seems to be quite tight in the market. I just wondered if there is any plans to add capacity if there's any specific supply chain bottlenecks that may alleviate over time. Obviously, there's pros and cons to that. So just like to see how you're thinking about the whole supply demand balance? And if you're adding any capacity, that would be great if you could comment on that.

    市場上的供應似乎相當緊張。我只是想知道,如果存在任何可能隨著時間推移而緩解的特定供應鏈瓶頸,是否有增加產能的計劃。顯然,這樣做有利有弊。所以我想了解一下您是如何看待整個供需平衡問題的?如果您要增加任何容量,請不吝賜教。

  • And then a follow-up on HAMR mix, congrats on the fifth hyperscaler being qualified, solid execution on HAMR so far. I just wondered what you're hearing from customers so far in terms of adoption for HAMR. Is there any upside or downside to the previous projections you provided for HAMR rollout going forward? Thanks very much.

    然後是HAMR混合部署的後續消息,祝賀第五家超大規模資料中心營運商獲得認證,HAMR目前的執行情況良好。我只是想知道到目前為止,您從客戶那裡了解到的關於 HAMR 採用情況的反饋如何。您之前對HAMR未來推廣的預測有哪些利多或不利之處?非常感謝。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Mark. Your two questions kind of go hand in glove. What I would say is that our strategy for adding capacity, if you will, is to go through product transitions. We're not really adding unit capacity. Through some of these product transitions, we actually lose a little bit of capacity because of the process content is a little higher as we go through, but we add exabyte capacity.

    謝謝你,馬克。你的兩個問題其實是密切相關的。我想說的是,我們增加產能的策略,或者說,是透過產品轉型來實現的。我們實際上並沒有增加產能。在某些產品轉型過程中,由於流程內容逐漸增多,我們實際上會失去一些產能,但我們會增加艾字節的產能。

  • And to your question about HAMR, a lot of the reason that customers are engaging with us on these long-term agreements is because we have visibility into higher and higher capacity points. So the demand that most of the hyperscalers certainly are feeling is for more exabytes, more efficient exabytes in their data center, allows their space and power and all their other metrics to get the best returns to the TCO, if you will.

    至於您提出的關於 HAMR 的問題,客戶與我們簽訂這些長期協議的很大一部分原因是,我們能夠看到越來越高的產能點。因此,大多數超大規模資料中心營運商都感受到了對更多、更有效率的資料中心容量的需求,這樣才能使其空間、電力以及所有其他指標獲得最佳的總體擁有成本回報。

  • And that's what we're really trying to answer the call for. We're very focused on going through the product transitions, getting our yields up on the product transitions, and then ultimately transitioning to the point where we get 40s and 50s and so on and add exabyte capacity that way.

    而這正是我們真正想要回應的呼聲。我們非常專注於產品轉型,提高產品轉型的良率,最終轉型到能夠生產 40 兆、50 兆等規格的產品,並以此方式增加艾字節容量。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Any update on the HAMR rollout, sorry?

    請問HAMR推廣有什麼最新進展嗎?

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Nothing more than what we said in the script, I think the qualification you made reference to. The ramp continues on and part of this is the predictability of those transitions that we're going through. We have to make sure we're staged for that so that we get the customers what they need.

    我覺得,除了劇本寫的內容之外,就沒什麼別的了,就是你提到的那個資格要求。坡道繼續延伸,部分原因是我們正在經歷的這些轉變具有可預測性。我們必須確保做好充分準備,以便滿足客戶的需求。

  • Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. We are ready to have achieved another call during the quarter. So now we have five customers qualified on -- five big customers, cloud customers qualified on HAMR. Of course, this is contributing to our delivery in the quarter and how we guided December quarter. So we are achieving those levels of revenue and profitability a little bit faster than what we were thinking. And of course, this is related to the transition of the mix to our capacity drives mainly to HAMR.

    是的。我們預計本季將再次接到電話。所以現在我們有五家客戶通過了HAMR認證——五家大型雲端客戶通過了HAMR認證。當然,這有助於我們本季的業績表現以及我們對12月季度的預測。因此,我們實現營收和獲利目標的速度比我們預想的要快一些。當然,這與我們的產能驅動主要轉向HAMR有關。

  • Erik Woodring - Analyst

    Erik Woodring - Analyst

  • Thanks very much. I appreciate it.

    非常感謝。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Erik Woodring, Morgan Stanley.

    艾瑞克‧伍德林,摩根士丹利。

  • James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

    James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

  • Great, thank you guys for taking my question. And congrats on your results tonight. Gianluca, since your May Analyst Day, you've reported two quarters where your incremental margins have been 60% to 70%. Is it fair to say that in a new demand environment that we're in and the need for higher capacity drives, we should be thinking about your incremental margins just being higher, consistently higher than that 50% incremental margin you outlined at your Analyst Day? Or why would we not see these level of incremental margins sustain, I realize not literally every quarter. But generally speaking, why would we not see 60% to 70% incremental margins sustained from here? Thank you.

    太好了,謝謝你們回答我的問題。恭喜你今晚取得好成績。Gianluca,自從你五月的分析師日以來,你已經公佈了兩個季度的業績,其中增量利潤率達到了 60% 到 70%。在當前新的需求環境下,隨著產能需求的提高,我們是否可以認為您的增量利潤率會更高,並且持續高於您在分析師日上提出的 50% 增量利潤率?或者,為什麼我們不能看到這種增量利潤水準持續下去?我意識到,這不可能每季都持續。但總的來說,為什麼我們不能從現在開始看到 60% 到 70% 的利潤率持續成長?謝謝。

  • Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Erik. Well, you're right. No, we are executing a little bit better than what we were stating. And as I said before, this is mainly due to the move to better mix in terms of profitability. Not every quarter is the same. So of course, now that we are qualifying more customer and moving more customers to the HAMR drives. We have a little bit of a higher support in terms of profitability. I would say now this will be different every quarter, even the pricing strategy that we have always very consistent, but not every quarter, we have the same number of new negotiations going on.

    謝謝你,埃里克。嗯,你說得對。不,我們的執行情況比我們之前所說的要好一些。正如我之前所說,這主要是由於在盈利能力方面轉向了更好的產品組合。每季的情況都不盡相同。所以,現在我們正在篩選更多客戶,並將更多客戶轉移到 HAMR 硬碟上。我們在獲利能力方面獲得了更高的支援。我認為現在每個季度情況都會有所不同,即使是我們一直以來都非常一致的定價策略,也不是每個季度都會有相同數量的新談判。

  • So it's not easy to estimate exactly what will be the profitability and the mix of a specific quarter. I think in the short term, we are delivering very good results. Longer term, I think the model that we presented at the Analyst Day is a strong model. But you are right, in the short term, we are doing a little bit better. And you have seen now regarding December, it basically implies a higher margin than the 50% incremental from September.

    因此,很難準確估算某個特定季度的獲利能力和產品組合。我認為短期內,我們取得了非常好的成績。從長遠來看,我認為我們在分析師日上提出的模型是一個強大的模型。但你說得對,短期內我們的情況確實好轉了一些。而您現在已經看到,就 12 月而言,這意味著利潤率將高於 9 月 50% 的增幅。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

    吉姆‧施耐德,高盛集團。

  • Asiya Merchant - Analyst

    Asiya Merchant - Analyst

  • Good evening. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could maybe address the level of cost reduction you expect to achieve on a blended basis as we look out into calendar 2026. Is there anything that would kind of prevent you from achieving that kind of mid-teens cost down on a blended basis, even as you ramp HAMR more aggressively? Could that actually be better than that? Or is there a reason it would be worse than that?

    晚安.謝謝您回答我的問題。我想請問一下,展望 2026 年,您預計在綜合基礎上能夠實現的成本降低水準是多少?即使你更積極地提高 HAMR 的使用率,是否存在某種因素會阻止你實現十幾個百分點的混合成本下降目標?難道那樣反而更好嗎?或者,情況會不會比這更糟?

  • And then just to clarify, the prior statement you made on not adding unit capacity, is there any kind of benefit you get in terms of sort of dual capacity tracking HAMR versus conventional technologies that would add a little bit of unit capacity into the overall mix? Or is that just an overall dilutive event to overall units? Thank you.

    然後,為了澄清一下,您之前說過不會增加單元容量,那麼在雙容量追蹤 HAMR 與傳統技術相比,能否獲得一些額外的單元容量,從而為整體組合增加一些單元容量呢?或者這只是對總銷量的一次整體稀釋事件?謝謝。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I'll take the second part first, and then I'll let Gianluca answer the cost question. So the way I think about it is, and I think I understood your question this way, there's some of our PMR technologies, which are in high volume, and as we transition to HAMR and the newer products, 30, 40 terabytes a month, then we're going to have to pivot pretty substantially.

    我先回答第二部分,然後讓詹盧卡回答成本問題。所以我的想法是,而且我認為我這樣理解了你的問題,我們的一些 PMR 技術使用量很大,隨著我們過渡到 HAMR 和更新的產品,每月 30、40 TB 的數據量,我們將不得不進行相當大的調整。

  • We don't really think about it as going back and building more of the PMR technology. We think about it as freeing up the PMR technology to ultimately go through the pivot, and that's how we're going to add exabyte capacity.

    我們並沒有真正把它看作是回頭開發更多的PMR技術。我們認為這可以釋放 PMR 技術,最終實現轉型,而這正是我們增加 EB 級容量的方式。

  • As far as unit capacity, that, a lot of that comes down to customers that are asking or qualified and what we've planned with them. So those plans are taking a long time to develop. And what Gianluca said earlier, if we get any upside -- marginal upside, it's because we're pulling in the future a little bit. So you want to answer the question on cost, Gianluca?

    至於產能方面,很大程度取決於客戶的需求或資質,以及我們與他們所製定的計畫。所以這些計劃需要很長時間才能製定出來。正如 Gianluca 之前所說,如果我們獲得任何上漲空間——即使是微弱的上漲空間,也是因為我們稍微拉動了未來的發展。所以你想回答成本問題,Gianluca?

  • Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. On the cost, of course, we don't guide costs for calendar '26. I would say the good improvement in our cost per terabyte is coming from the transition to higher capacity drives. So the mix is very important and every quarter is different. I would say you will see more and more transition to HAMR. We have two customers that are qualifying 40 terabyte drive that will, for sure, will be a good boost to our reduction of cost per terabyte during calendar '26.

    是的。至於成本,我們當然不會對 2026 年的日曆成本進行指導。我認為,我們每TB成本的顯著改善來自於向更高容量硬碟的過渡。所以,成分組合非常重要,而且每季都不一樣。我認為你會看到越來越多的病例過渡到HAMR(氫化可的松解藥物)。我們有兩位客戶正在申請 40 TB 的硬碟,這肯定會大大促進我們在 2026 年降低每 TB 的成本。

  • James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

    James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Asiya Merchant, Citi.

    Asiya Merchant,花旗銀行。

  • Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

    Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

  • Great. Good evening. Thank you for taking my question. There was commentary earlier about inference demand. If you could talk a little bit about the visibility of that demand. What gives you confidence that this one continues to grow maybe in terms of applications that you're seeing and that's kind of giving you the confidence of demand through calendar year '27? And how should we think about seasonality here? Typically, March does have a seasonal drop. How should we think about that given AI inferencing demand is pretty strong here? Thank you.

    偉大的。晚安.感謝您回答我的問題。之前曾有關於推理需求的評論。如果您能談談這種需求的可見性就太好了。是什麼讓您相信這項業務會繼續成長?或許是您看到的申請數量,以及這些申請數量如何讓您對 2027 年的需求充滿信心?那我們該如何看待季節性因素呢?通常情況下,3月會出現季節性下降。鑑於人工智慧推理在這裡的需求非常強勁,我們該如何看待這個問題?謝謝。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, it's actually very interesting for all of us to watch. Most of what, I think, has driven our demand over the last couple of years is this move to video or short form or long-form video, like over 80% of the Internet traffic right now is on -- is video content. And there's just literally tens to hundreds of millions of videos being uploaded every day.

    是的,對我們所有人來說,觀看這件事都非常有趣。我認為,過去幾年推動我們需求成長的大部分原因是向影片、短影片或長影片的轉變,目前超過 80% 的網路流量都集中在影片內容上。每天都有數千萬到數億個影片被上傳。

  • I think exactly to your question, the more people can generate access those videos via inferencing, the faster that happens, the better it probably is for our storage. And so do we see how is that going to progress in the next 9 months or 12 months? It's a little hard to to tell, but we're pretty excited as we see new applications coming online that allow people to generate the videos.

    我認為,正如你所問的,透過推理存取這些影片的人越多,速度越快,對我們的儲存就越有利。那麼,我們能否看到未來9個月或12個月內的發展?雖然現在還很難說,但我們非常興奮地看到一些新的應用程式上線,讓人們可以產生影片。

  • The videos are longer in format. They are richer in content. They've got more embedded videos on and so forth. But it is really hard to predict. And I think our customers are struggling with this a little bit as well, which is one of the reasons the demand is strong.

    影片時長較長。它們的內容更豐富。他們網站上還有更多嵌入式影片等等。但這真的很難預測。我認為我們的客戶在這方面也遇到了一些困難,這也是需求強勁的原因之一。

  • Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. On the seasonality in March quarter, of course, is a bit early to discuss about March. We just guided December. I would say considering that data center revenue is 80% of our total revenue, the impact of seasonality is probably lower than what you have seen in the past. I think every year will be a little bit lower. But of course, we are not guiding much, but we expect a good quarter.

    是的。當然,現在討論三月的季節性因素還為時過早。我們剛完成了十二月的指導工作。考慮到資料中心收入占我們總收入的 80%,我認為季節性因素的影響可能比你過去看到的要小。我認為每年都會略微下降一些。當然,我們不敢妄下斷言,但我們預計本季業績會不錯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Wamsi Mohan, Bank of America.

    Wamsi Mohan,美國銀行。

  • Christopher Muse - Analyst

    Christopher Muse - Analyst

  • Yeah, thank you so much. Can you talk a little bit about how you're managing pricing in this very constrained environment. How much is contractually locked in going into a quarter? How much flexibility do you have in intra-quarter basis? And when we look at just the reported quarter, right, like the dollars per terabyte decline was consistent with the prior quarter, but obviously, the demand environment is very strong.

    是的,非常感謝。您能否談談在這種資源非常有限的環境下,您是如何進行定價的?每季合約鎖定金額是多少?你們在季度內調整方面有多大的彈性?如果我們只看已公佈的季度數據,對吧,例如每TB的美元價格下降與上一季一致,但顯然,需求環境非常強勁。

  • So hoping you could unpack that a little bit. Is there a differential there between HAMR and non-HAMR that's contributing to that? Or what's causing the dollar per terabyte to be declined to be relatively consistent given just like this very strong demand backdrop. Thank you so much.

    所以希望你能稍微解釋一下。HAMR 和非 HAMR 之間是否存在導致這種情況的差異?或者說,在如此強勁的需求背景下,是什麼原因導致每TB的美元價格下降,並保持相對穩定?太感謝了。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Wamsi. So there's -- a lot of what we're doing right now is very predictable to our earlier comments, if we can execute a little bit better than planned, we can take cost out or we can pull in products, but as it gets qualified faster, but we are supply limited from that perspective. And contractually, we are giving our customers that predictable economics as well.

    是的。謝謝你,Wamsi。所以,我們現在所做的很多事情都與我們之前的評論非常吻合,如果我們能夠比計劃執行得更好一些,我們就可以降低成本或增加產品供應,但隨著產品更快地獲得認證,從這個角度來看,我們的供應是有限的。在合約方面,我們也為客戶提供了可預測的經濟效益。

  • Over time, if we go through these transitions a little bit faster than the next contract comes up and the next contract comes up, we can actually make sure we get the right economic returns for what the market needs. And I think that's the long-term strategy right now. But kind of near term, everything is happening according to plan to being slightly shifted left.

    隨著時間的推移,如果我們能夠比下一個合約到期的速度更快地完成這些過渡,我們實際上可以確保獲得市場所需的正確經濟回報。我認為這就是目前的長期策略。但就近期而言,一切都在按計劃進行,只是略微向左偏移。

  • Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, our pricing strategy is the same since about 10 consecutive quarters. So when we renegotiate a contract. Now we increased -- slightly increased pricing for the same product. And then when customers move to higher capacity products, they can get a little bit of a lower price per terabyte. That's why with major transition of customers to HAMR product with higher capacity, you can see a slight decrease in the average price per terabyte. But you're seeing the profitability the impact of the like-for-like price increase and all the cost per terabyte decrease due to the mix.

    是的,我們的定價策略已經連續10季沒有變動了。所以當我們重新協商合約時。現在我們提高了——略微提高了同一產品的價格。然後,當客戶升級到更高容量的產品時,他們每TB的價格就可以稍微降低一些。正因如此,隨著大量客戶轉向容量更高的 HAMR 產品,每 TB 的平均價格略有下降。但您可以看到獲利能力受到同類產品價格上漲的影響,以及由於產品組合變化而導致的每TB成本下降。

  • Christopher Muse - Analyst

    Christopher Muse - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you so much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • C.J. Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

    C.J. Muse,坎托·菲茨傑拉德。

  • Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan - Analyst

    Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan - Analyst

  • Yeah, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I wanted to clarify the March seasonality question earlier. Curious if you were to assume that consumer were seasonal, could you pivot supply more to the cloud?

    午安.感謝您回答這個問題。我之前想澄清一下關於三月季節性問題。如果假設消費者俱有季節性,是否可以將供應鏈更多地轉移到雲端?

  • And then I guess as the main question, your customers are turning to SSDs, given the tremendous tightness on the HDD side. Curious your thoughts around that cannibalization. And I guess what would maybe change your mind in terms of the vision for this sustainably higher demand and then potentially add capacity to support that. Thanks so much.

    那麼,我想最主要的問題是,鑑於 HDD 方面的巨大壓力,您的客戶是否正在轉向 SSD?很好奇你對這種同類相食現象的看法。那麼,對於這種可持續的高需求,以及可能增加產能來支持這種需求,什麼可能會改變您的想法呢?非常感謝。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, C.J. So I don't think that customers are really changing their architectures because of what they're seeing right now. What everybody is driving us to do is getting more predictable over time. And if anything, be more aggressive on the product transition. So I don't really think there's any cannibalization. As a matter of fact, I don't think it's in anybody's economic benefit to do so and the architectures are pretty well set going out for a couple of years.

    是的。謝謝,C.J.。所以我認為客戶並沒有因為目前的情況而真正改變他們的架構。大家最終都讓我們變得越來越可預測。而且,如果可以的話,應該在產品轉型方面更加積極主動。所以我並不認為有任何蠶食現象。事實上,我認為這樣做對任何人都沒有經濟利益,而且未來幾年的架構基本上已經確定。

  • Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. No, we see actually demand the gap between supply and demand getting a little bit bigger every quarter, that means demand is shifting more into the future is not taken by any other technology.

    是的。不,我們看到實際需求,供需之間的差距每季都在略微擴大,這意味著需求正在更多地轉移到未來,而未來並沒有被任何其他技術所取代。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And then your comment on seasonality is kind of interesting to think about there -- in some of the Edge IoT markets, there is seasonality, indeed, we have been taking slowly. We've been taking some supply out of Edge IoT products and putting it into cloud as we can pivot demand. Some of that's happening naturally as a part of these product transitions, which we've been talking about. It's not something we can do very quickly until we get to some of the products like the 4 terabyte per platter where we have commonality all the way through the platforms.

    然後,你對季節性的評論很有意思——在一些邊緣物聯網市場,確實存在季節性,我們一直在緩慢推進。隨著需求的變化,我們一直在將部分邊緣物聯網產品的供應轉移到雲端。其中一些變化是隨著產品轉型而自然發生的,我們一直在討論這個問題。在我們推出像每碟 4 TB 這樣的產品之前,我們無法很快做到這一點,因為這類產品在整個平台之間都具有通用性。

  • But we will think that -- so even though the Edge IoT is -- the revenue is going down a little bit, but profitability is actually greater because those products are being prioritized at a totally different way. But there is a tonne of supply on the market. I do think that will mean a little bit muted to seasonality because that market is still fairly strong. I think it was over $0.5 billion last quarter on the Edge IoT.

    但我們認為——儘管邊緣物聯網的收入略有下降,但獲利能力實際上更高,因為這些產品的優先順序完全不同。但市場上供應量非常大。我認為這意味著季節性因素的影響會略微減弱,因為該市場仍然相當強勁。我認為上個季度邊緣物聯網的規模超過了5億美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

    Krish Sankar,TD Cowen。

  • Amit Daryanani - Equity Analyst

    Amit Daryanani - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah. Thanks for my question. I had a question and a clarification. Dave or Gianluca, in the past, you spoke about sharing the cost benefit of HAMR with your customers. But now with cloud becoming a bigger portion in the AI tailwind, I'm wondering if you're rethinking your pricing strategy for HAMR i.e., can you increase it further?

    是的。謝謝你的提問。我有一個問題和一個需要澄清的地方。Dave 或 Gianluca,你們過去曾談到要與客戶分享 HAMR 的成本效益。但現在雲端運算在人工智慧發展中扮演著越來越重要的角色,我想知道您是否正在重新考慮HAMR的定價策略,例如,您是否可以進一步提高價格?

  • And then a clarification, Gianluca, historically, your revenue guide had a range of $150 million, now it's more like $100 million. So is that because better visibility build-to-order helping you tighten that range? Thank you.

    吉安盧卡,我再澄清一下,從歷史上看,你們的收入預期範圍是 1.5 億美元,現在更像是 1 億美元。所以,這是因為更透明的按需自訂模式幫助你縮小了產品範圍嗎?謝謝。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Chris. So I think what you said is very true. We are -- as we go through these product transitions, we're being as predictable as we can with the customers, but they -- some of the contracts are quite long as well. And so the market, as the demand goes up, the market will adjust, remember that most of the benefit that the customers are seeing is in that TCO proposition to the higher capacity drives. So the pricing is a factor in that, but also this benefit that they see in their TCO is a factor as well. And so it will adjust very slowly over time as the market develops.

    是的。謝謝你,克里斯。所以我覺得你說的很有道理。我們正在經歷這些產品轉型,我們會盡可能地對客戶保持可預測性,但是,有些合約的期限也相當長。因此,隨著需求的上升,市場也會做出調整。請記住,客戶所看到的大部分好處都體現在高容量硬碟的整體擁有成本 (TCO) 優勢上。所以價格是一個因素,但他們從總擁有成本中看到的優勢也是一個因素。因此,隨著市場的發展,它會隨著時間的推移而緩慢調整。

  • Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • On the HAMR pricing, in the past, we discussed only with one customer to giving them a slightly lower price, but this customer, of course, help us with a force qualification of the product. And so for a certain volume, they have a lower price than other customers. But of course, this is transitioning away fairly quickly. It's just a matter of a few more quarters.

    關於 HAMR 的定價,過去我們只與一位客戶討論過給予他們略低的價格,但這位客戶當然也幫助我們對產品進行了力量認證。因此,在一定採購量下,他們的價格比其他客戶低。當然,這種情況正在迅速改變。再過幾個季度就沒事了。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Amit Daryanani, Evercore ISI.

    Amit Daryanani,Evercore ISI。

  • Aaron Rakers - Analyst

    Aaron Rakers - Analyst

  • Yeah. Thanks a lot. Good afternoon. I guess, Dave, as you see an uptick in media creation, you've been talking about this, but with offerings like Open AI Sora. And given your near line capacity is fairly committed to 2026. Are you seeing customers looking to potentially fund the coinvest CapEx dollars for Seagate to get access to more units?

    是的。多謝。午安.戴夫,我想,隨著媒體創作的增加,你一直在談論這個問題,例如像 OpenAI Sora 這樣的產品。而且鑑於您近年的產能已經基本全部用於 2026 年。您是否看到有客戶有意為希捷的共同投資資本支出提供資金,以便獲得更多設備?

  • And is that something you'd be open to? I would love to just understand like if this sort of keeps playing out the way you outline, is that going to be enough? Or would you or your customers have to eventually add some capacity to get units. I'd love to understand if you'd be open to that co-investing angle.

    你對此持開放態度嗎?我想了解的是,如果事情繼續按照你所描述的方式發展下去,這樣就夠了嗎?或者您或您的客戶最終是否需要增加一些產能才能獲得產品?我很想知道您是否對這種共同投資的方式持開放態度。

  • And then if you just qualify -- qualify this a little bit. But when you talk about -- talked about shipping 1 million-plus Mozaic drives this quarter, does that imply that about 36 exabytes of the total units were HAMR driven this quarter? Is that fair? Thank you.

    如果你符合條件──稍微補充一下這個條件。但是,當您談到——談到本季出貨超過 100 萬個 Mozaic 硬碟時,這是否意味著本季總出貨量中約有 36 EB 是 HAMR 硬碟?這樣公平嗎?謝謝。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I'll let Gianluca answer the question on exabyte because he'll go calculate it, but you're not far off. I mean, what we -- the way we think about it is going through those transitions opens up all these higher capacity points. Yes, from a customer perspective, I think I mentioned earlier, there isn't great visibility on what some of these new tools are going to unlock. But I think there's a lot of optimism around demand, especially in the video properties that exist in the world.

    關於艾字節的問題,我會讓 Gianluca 來回答,因為他會去計算,但你的答案也相差不遠了。我的意思是,我們——我們認為,經歷這些轉變會開啟所有這些更高的容量點。是的,從客戶的角度來看,我想我之前也提到過,目前還不太清楚這些新工具會帶來哪些好處。但我認為市場對需求抱持著很大的樂觀情緒,尤其是在現有的影片領域。

  • And so therefore, nobody wants to be too late to these. I don't think that there's any significant changes to architecture. But I do think what we see driving or what's driving us is really stability. So it's customers showing up and saying, let's be very predictable as far as what I'm going to get.

    所以,沒有人願意錯過這些機會。我認為建築方面不會有任何重大變化。但我認為,我們所看到的驅動力,或者說正在驅動我們的動力,實際上是穩定。所以,顧客會​​說,我們希望他們能非常明確地告訴我我能得到什麼。

  • Some of the numbers about how much demand there is above and beyond what our supply is. Those numbers are contacted by someone else. I don't think it's -- that's the way necessarily each customer looks at it. What customers are starting to see is a temporal shift. So saying, hey, can I pull this in a little bit because we know -- they know we're gaining exabyte capacity over time, especially through the product transitions, that's what you saw contribute a little bit more to last quarter.

    以下是一些關於需求量遠超過供應量的數字。這些號碼已被其他人撥打。我不認為是這樣——每個顧客的看法都不盡相同。顧客開始看到的是一種時間上的轉變。所以,我說,嘿,我可以稍微增加一下這個嗎?因為我們知道——他們知道我們正在逐步增加EB容量,尤其是在產品轉型過程中,這就是你看到的對上個季度貢獻更大的部分。

  • And as we go as hard as we possibly can through the product transitions, we'll be bringing on more and more exabytes. So getting these qualifications done, getting us up to ramp, it's all priority for the customers as well. That's the way they're going to add capacity.

    隨著我們全力推動產品轉型,我們將引進越來越多的艾位元組資料。所以,完成這些資格認證,讓我們盡快投入生產,這對客戶來說也是頭等大事。他們打算透過這種方式增加產能。

  • Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. No. First of all, I think it's very important that we keep the current balance between supply and demand and not taking action to oversupply in the future, the industry. In term of exabyte, it's a nice question. I would say you know that our HAMR product is between 30 and 36 exabyte -- sorry, terabyte per unit. So with 1 million units sold in the quarter, we are into that range.

    是的。不。首先,我認為維持目前的供需平衡非常重要,未來我們不應該採取任何措施導致產業供應過剩。如果以艾字節為單位來衡量,這倒是個好問題。我想說,您應該知道我們的 HAMR 產品每台設備的容量在 30 到 36 EB(抱歉,是 TB)之間。因此,本季銷量達到 100 萬台,我們進入了目標範圍。

  • Erik Woodring - Analyst

    Erik Woodring - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you.

    完美的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Aaron Rakers, Wells Fargo.

    Aaron Rakers,富國銀行。

  • Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

    Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

  • Yeah. Thanks for taking the question. Yeah, I guess, first on the housekeeping side. I know that new disclosures, I'm curious of how -- or if there's any way we should think about the systems business within, I guess, it's in the data center piece of it? Do we kind of just think about what it was over the past many quarters and kind of think about that kind of level going forward?

    是的。感謝您回答這個問題。是的,我想,首先是家務事方面。我知道有新的披露,我很好奇——或者說,我們是否應該以某種方式來思考系統業務,我想,它應該屬於數據中心這部分吧?我們是不是應該回顧過去幾季的情況,並展望未來能維持這樣的水準?

  • And then on a nearline demand perspective, given the growth that we're seeing, looking back at the Analyst Day, I know you outlined kind of a mid-20% CAGR. Has your thoughts at all changed whether or not that, that's structurally just looking forward just higher relative to what you initially thought back a few months ago?

    從近線需求角度來看,鑑於我們目前看到的成長,回顧分析師日,我知道您概述了大約 20% 的複合年增長率。你的想法是否有改變?也就是說,從結構上看,未來前景是否比幾個月前你最初的想法更高?

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Aaron. From the systems business, we -- obviously, we package the drives into the racks to save some customers some work. It's a fairly limited number of customers. They're great customers, and we don't really see the landscape changing too much on that. There's -- the customers that are buying drives today and having someone else do the integration aren't necessarily visiting to the systems could happen.

    謝謝你,亞倫。從系統業務的角度來看,我們——很顯然,我們將驅動器打包到機架中,以節省一些客戶的工作。客戶數量相當有限。他們是非常好的客戶,我們不認為這方面的情況會有太大變化。現在,許多客戶購買硬碟後,會委託其他人進行集成,而他們不一定會親自到系統現場查看。

  • But -- so I think it's steady as she goes on that front. Relative to near line, we're all watching demand. And the mid-20 number, something we continue to grapple with. And thus, most of the questions we've been asked today about how much supply is there. Again, I'll just say that the way we bring them more exabytes supply is to get the bigger drives out. And so that's what we're all focused on.

    但是——所以我認為她在這方面會穩步前進。相對於近線產品,我們都在關注需求。還有20多歲的這個數字,我們仍在努力應對。因此,今天我們被問到的關於供應量的問題大多圍繞著供應量。我再說一遍,我們為他們提供更多EB級儲存容量的方法就是推出更大容量的硬碟。所以,這就是我們所有人關注的焦點。

  • Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Aaron. And we report system as part of data center, and this is very similar to what the rest of the industry is doing. So we try to align, so it's easier to look as different players in the same way.

    是的,亞倫。我們將系統作為資料中心的一部分進行報告,這與業內其他公司的做法非常相似。所以我們努力保持一致,這樣更容易讓不同的球員以相同的方式看待彼此。

  • Erik Woodring - Analyst

    Erik Woodring - Analyst

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thomas O'Malley, Barclays.

    Thomas O'Malley,巴克萊銀行。

  • Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

    Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

  • Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to understand the timing of the crossover between the Mozaic 3 platform to Mozaic 4 platform. I think you guys have historically talked about. The first generation is what takes a long time. That's what was the struggle with your first big customer, but now you're really seeing that adoption kind of accelerate across other global CSPs.

    各位好,感謝你們回答我的問題。我想了解 Mozaic 3 平台到 Mozaic 4 平台過渡的時間安排。我認為你們過去也討論過這個問題。第一代產品需要很長時間才能完成。這就是你與第一個大客戶合作時遇到的困難,但現在你確實看到這種技術在其他全球通訊服務提供者中正在加速普及。

  • So at Mozaic 4, it sounds like it's starting to ramp in volume in the second half fiscal year '26. Could you get to a crossover point in the first half '27? Like should we be thinking about 15% or 20% contribution? I'm just trying to understand how much supply you can actually add to the industry with that transition in a short period of time. Thank.

    所以,從 Mozaic 4 的情況來看,它似乎在 2026 財年下半年開始量產。你能在 2027 年上半年達到轉捩點嗎?我們應該考慮15%還是20%的貢獻率?我只是想了解在短時間內透過這種轉型,究竟能為產業增加多少供應量。感謝。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Tom. Yeah, it's a question we're asking as well because as we go up the ramp, then yields and scrap and everything else on the new product is what dictates that. We understand the old product pretty well. There is a lot of commonality in piece parts between the two technologies between them. So it's not -- this is not a complete unknown on the ramp.

    謝謝你,湯姆。是的,這也是我們正在考慮的問題,因為隨著我們逐步提高產量,新產品的產量、廢料以及其他所有因素都會影響最終結果。我們對老產品相當了解。這兩種技術在零件方面有許多共通之處。所以,這並非——這並非坡道上的一個完全未知數。

  • But from my perspective, it -- we'll be a little bit faster ramp. We have to go execute, and that's what the team is going to be focused on the qualifications are running well so far. So there's no reason to be disappointed at this point, and I'll be continuing to implore the teams to get the yields up as quickly as we possibly can to accelerate the transition.

    但從我的角度來看,我們的成長速度會更快一些。我們必須全力以赴,這也是團隊將要關注的重點,目前資格賽進展順利。所以目前沒有理由感到失望,我將繼續敦促各團隊盡快提高產量,以加快轉型進程。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Karl Ackerman, BNP Paribas.

    卡爾‧阿克曼,法國巴黎銀行。

  • Karl Ackerman - Analyst

    Karl Ackerman - Analyst

  • Yes. Thank you. Dave, you spoke about longer-term agreements offering visibility into 2027. Presumably, that visibility is on exabytes for HAMR drives. But since you didn't specify what that visibility is, does exabyte slow down in the context of that 25% exabyte growth over time? Or do you think expect demand actually accelerates into '27 from what you see today?

    是的。謝謝。戴夫,你談到了能夠提供直至 2027 年的長期協議。據推測,HAMR 硬碟的可見性是以 EB 為單位的。但由於您沒有具體說明這種可見性是什麼,那麼隨著時間的推移,在 25% 的 EB 成長速度下,EB 的成長速度是否會放緩?或者,根據你目前觀察到的情況,你認為到 2027 年需求實際上會加速成長嗎?

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think that's a -- so there's a supply question and a demand question. I think, yes, the supply would go up quite a bit because as we go transitioning to the earlier question Tom asked as we transition to the 4-plus product family, we get a lot more exabytes out of it.

    嗯,我認為這既是供給問題,也是需求問題。我認為,是的,供應量會大幅增加,因為正如 Tom 之前提出的問題,當我們過渡到 4 Plus 產品系列時,我們可以從中獲得更多的艾字節。

  • So this will drive that as hard as we possibly can. We are working with customers, major hyperscalers and everything else on the 5 that we've qualified on 3+. Now we get as many qualified on 4+ over the course of the next year, and we get significantly more exabytes out. That's what we're driving.

    所以我們會盡最大努力推動這件事。我們正在與客戶、大型超大規模資料中心營運商以及其他各方合作,推進我們在 3 個以上專案中已獲得認證的 5 個專案。現在,在接下來的一年裡,我們將獲得與 4+ 機型同等數量的合格用戶,並且我們將獲得更多艾字節的數據。這就是我們正在努力的方向。

  • Karl Ackerman - Analyst

    Karl Ackerman - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

    提摩西‧阿庫裡,瑞銀集團。

  • Steven Fox - Analyst

    Steven Fox - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot. I also had a question about the HAMR crossover. So five of the CSPs are qualified now and the other three are going to get qualified in the first half of next year. It sounds like it's about high teens of exabytes now, maybe pushing 20%. I would have thought you could get to exabyte crossover before a year from now if more than half the CSDs are called now and everyone is pushing to get these higher cap drives. So why would it take another year to go from 15% to 20% of exabytes to more than half of exabytes?

    多謝。我還有一個關於 HAMR 分音器的問題。目前已有 5 家 CSP 獲得資格認證,其餘 3 家將在明年上半年獲得資格認證。聽起來現在已經接近十幾位艾字節了,可能接近 20%。我原以為,如果現在超過一半的 CSD 都被訂購,而且每個人都在努力獲得這些更大容量的硬碟,那麼在一年之內就能實現 EB 級容量的突破。那麼,為什麼從佔艾字節 15% 到 20% 再到超過一半艾字節,需要一年的時間呢?

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Tim. So there's a lag in the supply chain, obviously. We've started wafers for various products. We will sell those various products. Just pulling in the qualification does not necessarily mean we turn a light switch from the old product to the new product. We have to actually go through that transition ourselves in our own factories.

    是的。謝謝你,提姆。顯然,供應鏈存在落後。我們已經開始生產各種產品的晶圓。我們將銷售這些不同的產品。僅僅獲得認證並不一定意味著我們就可以從舊產品切換到新產品。我們實際上必須在自己的工廠裡經歷這種轉變。

  • We're going to do that as aggressively as we can. And I think I asked this back -- or answered this back in Tom's question, there is some commonality between. So we can pivot a little bit, but not as hard as we'd all like. And I think -- some of this will be dictated by our yield ramp and so on, on the new products. But things are going well. So we're going to be as aggressive as we can.

    我們將盡最大努力積極主動地進行這項工作。我覺得我在湯姆的問題中也問過這個問題——或者說回答過這個問題,兩者之間有一些共同點。所以我們可以稍微調整一下方向,但不能像我們都希望的那樣徹底。我認為,其中一些將取決於我們的新產品產量提升等因素。但一切進展順利。所以我們會盡可能採取積極主動的策略。

  • Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I think, as you know, the cycle time for time for HAMR is not short. So we need to qualify first and then to ramp the product. So it takes a certain number of quarters to really go up in capacity.

    我想,正如您所知,HAMR 的周期時間並不短。所以我們需要先進行資格認證,然後再擴大產品規模。所以,需要經過一定數量的季度才能真正提高產能。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • So I guess that's why you'd be buying heads from TDK basically from the outside, right?

    所以我想這就是為什麼你基本上是從外部購買TDK的頭盔的原因吧?

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • No, we're not buying heads today from TDK. And I would say TDK is a great partner, has been for a long time. We talked to them about technology all the time, but they don't have HAMR technology. So the way what we're focused on is how do we get transitioned to the HAMR exabytes as quickly as possible.

    不,我們今天不從TDK購買頭盔。而且我認為TDK一直都是個很棒的合作夥伴,而且已經合作很久了。我們一直和他們談論技術,但他們沒有 HAMR 技術。因此,我們現在關注的是如何盡快過渡到 HAMR EB 級資料。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Yeah. I meant PMO heads, but thanks.

    是的。我指的是專案管理辦公室負責人,但謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steven Fox, Fox Advisors.

    史蒂文‧福克斯,福克斯顧問公司。

  • Steven Fox - Analyst

    Steven Fox - Analyst

  • Hi. Just listening to all the questions and thinking back to the presentation in May, where you mined lined up sort of the road map and the time it takes. It seems like hard disk drives is going to become more of a bottleneck to some of the expansion plans for the cloud guys as we get into next year. How legitimate is that of a concern? And what else could be done at the cloud guys to just sort of leverage existing capacity to sort of get through that period and keep you guys on track?

    你好。聽著大家提出的問題,回想起五月的演講,當時你大致規劃了路線圖和所需時間。隨著我們進入明年,硬碟似乎將成為雲端運算公司一些擴張計劃的瓶頸。這種擔憂有多合理?那麼,雲端方面還能做些什麼來利用現有能力,幫助你們度過這段時期,並確保你們的工作照計畫進行呢?

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Steve, I don't look at it as something that's immediate or going to be solved in a period of three months, the industry is not going to bring on more supply in three months. It's not -- so really what's coming out of all of this is customers are getting very predictable on long-term plans. And that's what they need to do, and that's that we need them to do as well because we've got long cycle times as we've been saying. So it's building industry health and that's good. We can't react with supply to everyone's wish list, and there's probably wish list that aren't real at some point.

    是的,史蒂夫,我不認為這是一個可以立即解決的問題,或者說三個月內就能解決的問題,這個行業不可能在三個月內增加供應。並非如此——所以,這一切的最終結果是,客戶在長期規劃方面變得越來越可預測。這正是他們需要做的,也是我們需要他們做的,因為正如我們一直所說,我們的週期時間很長。所以這有助於建構健康的產業體系,這是好事。我們不可能滿足每個人的願望清單,而且有些願望清單可能不太現實。

  • But the customers that we're working with are being very predictable for us telling us exactly what they're going to need, and we're answering the, call it, to the extent that we can. And if they need more exabytes usually, we're off book. It's a timing problem, a temporal problem. We're up by a few months or six months or something like that. And so ultimately, as we go through these transitions, we're going to bring on more exabyte capacity and they're going to be happy with it. Again, we don't see any evidence architectures changing or anything like that.

    但是,與我們合作的客戶非常容易預測,他們會準確地告訴我們他們需要什麼,而我們也盡力滿足他們的需求。如果他們通常需要更多艾字節,我們就得另想辦法了。這是一個時機問題,一個時間問題。我們領先幾個月,或者六個月左右。因此,最終,隨著我們完成這些轉型,我們將增加更多艾字節容量,他們也會對此感到滿意。再次強調,我們沒有看到任何證據架構有變化或類似的事情。

  • Steven Fox - Analyst

    Steven Fox - Analyst

  • Understood. And the advanced algebra on how you're upsiding is just different every single quarter depending on -- you must mentioned like half a dozen variables between coming exabytes you got out this quarter versus last quarter and the next quarter?

    明白了。而你如何實現成長的複雜代數計算,每個季度都不一樣,這取決於——你肯定提到過,本季度與上季度和下季度相比,你獲得的EB數據量之間有大約六個變量吧?

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. We're executing well, as we said in the script, and we're pulling as hard as we possibly can, but we're executing the plan that we have and pulling in as much as we can as qualifications complete, and we'll continue to do so to the extent that our factories will let us. I mean we're -- it's a fairly long supply chain.

    是的。正如我們在劇本中所說,我們執行得很好,我們正在盡最大努力,我們正在執行我們制定的計劃,並在資格審查完成後儘可能多地進行生產,我們將繼續這樣做,只要我們的工廠允許。我的意思是,我們的供應鏈相當長。

  • Steven Fox - Analyst

    Steven Fox - Analyst

  • Alright. Thanks for that caller.

    好吧。謝謝這位來電者。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ananda Baruah, Loop Capital.

    Ananda Baruah,Loop Capital。

  • Ananda Baruah - Analyst

    Ananda Baruah - Analyst

  • Hey, guys. Thanks for the question. Appreciate it. Dave, how should we think about -- well, what's the most useful way to think about velocity, I guess, the pace at which customers going forward will look to mix up to higher capacity points given the shortages and given the aerial density is what's going to bring new exabytes to market, do you think that we'll see folks look to mix up faster than historical?

    嘿,夥計們。謝謝你的提問。謝謝。Dave,我們該如何看待——嗯,我想,看待速度最有效的方式是什麼?考慮到短缺和空中密度將把新的艾字節推向市場,客戶未來尋求混合到更高容量點的速度,你認為我們會看到人們尋求混合的速度比以往更快嗎?

  • And part of this, I get is obvious because when you make the switch to HAMR, there's like a stair step-up in capacity. But even as HAMR normalizes, let's say, once you get past cross over, say, 12 months from now, what HAMR normalizes, do you think we could see an even faster than typical makes up inside the HAMR? And if not, like what would be the gating factors to that? Appreciate it. Thanks.

    其中一部分原因顯而易見,因為當你切換到 HAMR 時,容量就像階梯一樣逐步提升。但即使 HAMR 趨於正常,比如說,一旦過了交叉點,比如說 12 個月後,HAMR 趨於正常,你認為我們會看到 HAMR 內部的補償速度比平常更快嗎?如果不是這樣,那麼阻礙因素會是什麼?謝謝。謝謝。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Ananda. It doesn't seem like that long ago that we were talking about 16s going to 18s or 18s is going to 20s, diminishing returns, I would say, on PMR products. And then as we've gone 30 to 40, we see an immense pull for 40s. And then -- and I think that will be true with 50s as well as we try to drive that part of the transition because the TCO proposition is so much better if you're building a data center and then you want those products.

    謝謝你,阿南達。感覺不久前我們還在討論從 16 號到 18 號,或是從 18 號到 20 號,我認為 PMR 產品已經出現了收益遞減。然後,隨著年齡增長到 30 歲到 40 歲,我們發現 40 歲年齡層的人需求非常旺盛。然後——我認為 50 年代的情況也是如此,因為我們正努力推動這一轉變,因為如果你要建立資料中心,並且想要這些產品,那麼 TCO 方案會好得多。

  • So I do think that, that's reflective in the customers' behaviors exactly to your point. Back in the day when we were moving from '16 to '18 or '18 to '20, we just weren't seeing that much push. Now on the demand side, on the true end demand side, I think it's also because of what's going on in the world, we pointed out video in the script. Some of the video properties are just exploding right now and the capability to create and diversify the video in the world is great, and people are monetizing it, that's great as well. So human creativity is what's fundamentally driving all of this stuff. And I don't see it slowing down.

    所以我認為,這一點確實反映在了顧客的行為中,正如你所說。想當年我們從 2016 年過渡到 2018 年,或是從 2018 年過渡到 2020 年的時候,我們並沒有看到那麼大的推動力。現在,就需求方面而言,就真正的最終需求而言,我認為這也是因為世界上正在發生的事情,我們在劇本中指出了影片。現在一些影片內容正處於爆發式成長階段,世界上的影片創作和多元化能力非常強大,而且人們正在透過影片獲利,這也很棒。所以,人類的創造力才是這一切的根本驅動力。而且我看不出這種趨勢會放緩。

  • Ananda Baruah - Analyst

    Ananda Baruah - Analyst

  • Appreciate it. Thanks.

    謝謝。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tristan Gerra, Baird.

    特里斯坦·格拉,貝爾德。

  • Tristan Gerra - Analyst

    Tristan Gerra - Analyst

  • Hi, good afternoon. Could you elaborate on the duration of the long-term agreements for HAMR? Is there a pricing component to it? And what percentage of total revenue is currently based on those agreements? How does that compare with what the mix of those agreements was last year?

    您好,下午好。能否詳細說明HAMR長期協議的期限?它包含定價部分嗎?目前,這些協議佔總收入的百分比是多少?與去年這些協議的組合相比,情況如何?

  • Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Well, every customer has a different LTA or build to order. So the duration is different. The volume is different. The mix is different. But what we said in the prepared remarks, the vast majority of our Newland exabyte have already been committed for entire calendar '26. So we have a fairly long build to order in place.

    每個客戶的長期協議或客製化生產方案都不同。所以持續時間不一樣。音量不同。混合物有所不同。但正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所說,我們 Newland 的絕大部分艾字節資料已經預定用於整個 2026 年。所以我們目前採用的是較長的依訂單生產週期。

  • Tristan Gerra - Analyst

    Tristan Gerra - Analyst

  • Okay. And then as you look at the ramp of HAMR and you're not ramping capacity, you're migrating to higher densities, is your expectation on the basis of that ramp and what you see in terms of demand that lead times are going to remain similar to what they are today? Or would you expect lead times to expand further despite the ramp and migration to higher density HAMR?

    好的。然後,當你觀察 HAMR 的產能提升,而你並沒有提高產能,而是向更高密度遷移時,基於這種產能提升以及你看到的需求,你是否預期交付週期將與現在的情況類似?或者,儘管產能提升和向更高密度HAMR的遷移,您是否預期交貨週期會進一步延長?

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, it's a good question, Tristan. I think they'll remain like they are today. Getting through the HAMR transition, you have to add a significant amount of content to wafer, in particular, which is one of the longest lead times, but the next generation and the next generation after that, you don't have to go through that amount of transition again.

    是的,特里斯坦,這是一個很好的問題。我認為他們會維持現狀。完成 HAMR 過渡需要向晶圓添加大量內容,這尤其需要最長的交付週期之一,但下一代以及再下一代,就不必再經歷如此巨大的過渡了。

  • So I do think it's a step up in lead times. We'll work it to get it back down as quickly as we can, but I think there's a substantial amount of process content. So we've gone through that step up, at least on those products. And then after that, we don't have to get to 4 terabytes or 5 terabytes per platter and so on.

    所以我認為這在交貨週期方面是一個進步。我們會盡快努力把它降下來,但我認為其中有很多流程的內容。所以,至少在這些產品上,我們已經完成了這一步。之後,我們就不必非得達到每張光碟 4 TB 或 5 TB 的容量了。

  • Tristan Gerra - Analyst

    Tristan Gerra - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much.

    偉大的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Miller, The Benchmark Company.

    馬克·米勒,基準公司。

  • Mark Miller - Analyst

    Mark Miller - Analyst

  • Congratulations on another good quarter. I'm just wondering -- are your margins and yields on your HAMR drives at parity with the legacy PMR drives, if not, when you expect that to occur?

    恭喜又一個季度業績出色。我只是想問一下——你們的 HAMR 硬碟的利潤率和良率是否與傳統的 PMR 硬碟持平?如果不是,你們預計何時才能達到持平?

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Mark, I would say we don't have ePMR. So we have -- our last generation PMR drive is a great drive. It's fantastic. It's got great yields. I'm very happy with it. We're always going to be working the next generation and the next generation as hard as we possibly can. The 4 terabyte per platter, which is what we're all focused on right now is where we need to get the yields up and it's still early in its lifetime. So we'll continue to put as much muscle as we have in Seagate to get that done this year.

    是的,馬克,我認為我們沒有 ePMR。所以我們有——我們上一代PMR硬碟是一款很棒的硬碟。太棒了。它的產量很高。我非常滿意。我們將始終盡我們所能,並努力培養下一代和下下一代。我們現在關注的重點是每張光碟 4 TB 的容量,我們需要提高良率,而這還處於其生命週期的早期階段。所以,我們將繼續投入希捷公司所有資源,爭取今年完成這項任務。

  • Mark Miller - Analyst

    Mark Miller - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho.

    Vijay Rakesh,瑞穗銀行。

  • Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

    Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

  • Yeah, Dave and Gianluca. So just I saw good numbers on the gross margin side, up pretty nicely sequentially. Just wondering with the drop-through on HAMR, would you expect to hit the mid-45%, 45% margins exiting fiscal '26? Or how should we look at that margin progression? And I have a follow-up.

    是的,戴夫和詹盧卡。我看到毛利率的數據不錯,環比成長相當可觀。考慮到HAMR的銷售下滑,您預計到2026財年結束時,利潤率可以達到45%到45%嗎?或者我們應該如何看待這種利潤成長?我還有一個後續問題。

  • Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Gianluca Romano - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. As I said before, from Erik's question, no, we are very pleased with the progression in gross margin and also with increasing revenue. So we have achieved with $2.6 billion in revenue and a 40% gross margin a little bit earlier than what we were thinking. And we have guided December with an incremental margin that is higher than the 50% that we discussed in our financial model.

    是的。正如我之前所說,針對 Erik 的問題,答案是:不,我們對毛利率的成長以及收入的成長都非常滿意。因此,我們比預期提前一些實現了 26 億美元的營收和 40% 的毛利率。我們對 12 月的業績預期是,增量利潤率將高於我們在財務模型中討論的 50%。

  • Every quarter is a little bit different. Now right now, we have a fairly quick transition from the PMR drive to amortize. And with higher capacity drive, we get better profitability. So in the short term, we are progressing well. And as I said, every quarter, we believe little bit different. I think the model that we presented in May is a strong model for the next three years, but it doesn't mean we cannot execute even better.

    每個季度的情況都略有不同。現在,我們正在迅速從 PMR 驅動過渡到攤銷。而更高的驅動力可以帶來更高的獲利能力。所以短期來看,我們進展順利。正如我所說,每個季度,我們的想法都會略有不同。我認為我們在五月提出的模型對於未來三年來說是一個強大的模型,但這並不意味著我們不能做得更好。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Right, Vijay. And as I reflect on a lot of the questions today, it's about how well do we know the demand further out and some of that's predictable, but the demand may keep on coming based on what we see in some of the end applications. And then our ability to continue to work the yield issues around the new 4 terabyte for platter and get through that transition as quickly as we can, and that will help the cost side, so the and supply side from an exabyte perspective. So that's overall focus. I appreciate the question.

    沒錯,維傑。今天我思考了很多問題,關鍵在於我們對未來需求的了解程度,其中一些是可以預測的,但根據我們在一些最終應用中看到的情況,需求可能會持續增長。然後,我們能否繼續解決新的 4TB 盤片的良率問題,並儘快完成過渡,這將有助於降低成本,從而從艾字節的角度改善供應。這就是整體重點。感謝您的提問。

  • Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

    Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

  • Got it. And Dave, just on the -- on your follow-up on the video side with the increased traffic. Do you -- the longer-term exabyte growth that you guys had laid out on the 20%, 25%, do you see upside to that now given this significant increase in video traffic and storage?

    知道了。戴夫,關於你影片方面流量增加的後續情況。你們先前設定的長期EB級成長目標為20%、25%,鑑於視訊流量和儲存的顯著成長,你們現在是否認為這個目標還有上行空間?

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, this is what we're all still studying, I think. We've seen, especially with some of the new AI generation, AI content generation, which we talked about in the prepared remarks, we're studying how fast the uptake there is for some of these new creative capabilities that people have.

    我想,這正是我們目前仍在研究的問題。我們已經看到,尤其是在一些新一代人工智慧、人工智慧內容生成方面(我們在準備好的演講稿中談到了這一點),我們正在研究人們對這些新的創造能力的接受速度有多快。

  • Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

    Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks.

    知道了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議交還給管理階層,請他們作總結發言。

  • William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Mosley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Gary, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. As you can see, fiscal 2026 is off to a great start. It is marked by strong operational execution and outstanding financial results. I want to once again express my gratitude to our employees, our suppliers, our customers, and our shareholders for their contributions to Seagate's ongoing success. Together, we are advancing innovation to serve growing data storage demand and position Seagate for long-term value creation. Thanks for your continued support. We look forward to the significant opportunities ahead.

    謝謝加里,也謝謝各位今天蒞臨。如您所見,2026 財年開局良好。其特點是營運執行力強,財務績效優異。我再次衷心感謝我們的員工、供應商、客戶和股東為希捷的持續成功所做的貢獻。我們攜手推進創新,以滿足不斷增長的資料儲存需求,並使希捷能夠創造長期價值。感謝您一直以來的支持。我們期待未來的重要機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。