Prologis Inc (PLD) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Prologis' Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to our host, Jill Sawyer, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加 Prologis 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在將會議交給我們的東道主、投資者關係副總裁吉爾·索耶 (Jill Sawyer)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thanks, Diego. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Supplemental document is available on our website at prologis.com under Investor Relations.

謝謝，迭戈。大家，早安。歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。補充文件可在我們的網站 prologis.com 的“投資者關係”下獲取。

I'd like to state that this conference call will contain forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the market and the industry in which Prologis operates as well as management's beliefs and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance, and actual operating results may be affected by a variety of factors. For a list of those factors, please refer to the forward-looking statement notice in our 10-K or other SEC filings.

我想聲明的是，本次電話會議將包含聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。這些陳述基於對普洛斯經營所在市場和行業的當前預期、估計和預測以及管理層的信念和假設。前瞻性陳述並非業績保證，實際經營業績可能會受到多種因素的影響。有關這些因素的列表，請參閱我們的 10-K 或其他 SEC 文件中的前瞻性聲明通知。

Additionally, our second quarter results press release and supplemental do contain financial measures such as FFO and EBITDA that are non-GAAP. And in accordance with Reg G, we have provided a reconciliation to those measures. I'd like to welcome Tim Arndt, our CFO, who will cover results real-time market conditions and guidance. Hamid Moghadam, our CEO and our entire executive team are also with us today.

此外，我們的第二季度業績新聞稿和補充材料確實包含非 GAAP 財務指標，例如 FFO 和 EBITDA。根據 Reg G，我們對這些措施進行了調節。我要歡迎我們的首席財務官蒂姆·阿恩特 (Tim Arndt)，他將介紹結果、實時市場狀況和指導。我們的首席執行官 Hamid Moghadam 和整個執行團隊今天也與我們在一起。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

這樣，我就把電話轉給蒂姆。

Thanks, Jill. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. We had a very good quarter with outstanding results across our uniquely diversified business. It was highlighted by record rent change, a ramp-up in development starts, roughly half of which were build-to-suit and the acquisition of over $3 billion of real estate at accretive returns, deepening our scale in key markets.

謝謝，吉爾。大家早上好，歡迎參加我們的第二季度財報電話會議。我們度過了一個非常好的季度，在我們獨特的多元化業務中取得了出色的業績。創紀錄的租金變化、開發項目的增加（其中大約一半是定制項目）以及以增值回報收購超過 30 億美元的房地產，加深了我們在主要市場的規模，這些都凸顯了這一點。

We also earned record strategic capital income and raised $1.2 billion in new equity across the vehicles. We are watching markets closely, and we've been clear that we expect vacancies to rise over the course of the year from a normalization of demand and elevated development deliveries.

我們還獲得了創紀錄的戰略資本收入，並通過這些工具籌集了 12 億美元的新股本。我們正在密切關注市場，並且我們已經明確表示，由於需求正常化和開發交付量增加，預計今年空缺數量將會增加。

We've indeed seen vacancy build and expect it to reach the mid-4s in the U.S. by year-end, but continue to believe that fundamentals will regain momentum in 2024 with the outlook for new supply declining as development starts continue to fall this year.

我們確實看到了空置率的增加，並預計到年底美國空置率將達到 4 左右，但我們仍然相信基本面將在 2024 年恢復勢頭，隨著今年的開發項目繼續下降，新供應前景將下降。

In short, our outlook is completely unchanged, and we feel great about our business. Turning to our results. Core FFO, excluding promotes, was $1.25 per share and including promotes was $1.83 per share, both ahead of our forecast. Our promote income was generated from both USLF and Fibra Prologis and meaningfully exceeded our guidance.

簡而言之，我們的前景完全沒有改變，我們對我們的業務感覺很好。轉向我們的結果。核心 FFO（不包括促銷費用）為每股 1.25 美元，包括促銷費用為每股 1.83 美元，均超出我們的預測。我們的促銷收入來自 USLF 和 Fibra Prologis，大大超出了我們的指導。

USLF generated promote revenue at Prologis share of over $635 million. In its 3-year performance period, assets grew by over $10 billion, and the fund delivered an IRR of over 20% net of all fees and with very low leverage. In terms of our operating results, average occupancy for the quarter was 97.5%, down 50 basis points from the first quarter and in line with our expectations.

USLF 為 Prologis 帶來的推廣收入超過 6.35 億美元。在其 3 年業績期內，資產增長超過 100 億美元，該基金扣除所有費用後的 IRR 超過 20%，且槓桿率非常低。從我們的經營業績來看，本季度平均入住率為 97.5%，較一季度下降 50 個基點，符合我們的預期。

Rent change on starts was a record on both a net effective and cash basis, 79% and 48%, respectively. Net effective rent change on signings of more forward-looking view was an impressive 87% with notable rent change from Phoenix at 137%, Northern New Jersey at 150% and Southern California at 181%.

開工租金變化在淨有效和現金基礎上均創歷史新高，分別為 79% 和 48%。簽署更具前瞻性觀點的淨有效租金變化高達 87%，其中菲尼克斯的租金變化顯著，為 137%，新澤西州北部為 150%，南加州為 181%。

Global markets also contributed to strong signings with Mexico at 34%, the U.K. at 36%, Central Europe at 51% and Canada at 150%. Bottom line, rent change has been both robust and broad-based. Market rents continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace, increasing a little over 1.5% in the quarter. In-place rents grew by approximately 2.5% over the quarter, the net of which translates to a lease mark-to-market of 66%, down from 68%.

全球市場也促成了墨西哥（34%）、英國（36%）、中歐（51%）和加拿大（150%）的強勁簽約。最重要的是，租金變化既強勁又廣泛。市場租金繼續增長，儘管增速放緩，本季度增幅略高於 1.5%。本季度就地租金增長了約 2.5%，扣除租金後的租金按市價計算為 66%，低於 68%。

We explained last quarter that our lease mark-to-market would generate $2.85 per share of incremental earnings as leases will roll over time without any additional market rent growth. Interestingly, that future upside is virtually unchanged at June 30, even though we crystallize rental increases over the quarter.

我們上季度解釋說，我們的租賃按市值計算將產生每股 2.85 美元的增量收益，因為租賃將隨著時間的推移而滾動，而不會產生任何額外的市場租金增長。有趣的是，儘管我們明確了本季度的租金上漲，但截至 6 月 30 日，未來的上漲空間幾乎沒有變化。

This is because a lower lease mark-to-market is now being applied to a larger base of in-place NOI. Ultimately, same-store growth is our most important operating metric in this quarter remained exceptional at 8.9% on a net effective basis and 10.7% on cash.

這是因為較低的市場租賃價格現在正應用於更大的就地 NOI 基礎。最終，同店增長是我們本季度最重要的運營指標，淨有效增長 8.9%，現金增長 10.7%，表現出色。

I'd like to highlight that even with $4 billion of investment during the quarter, the balance sheet remains in impeccable shape with liquidity of approximately $6.4 billion and debt to EBITDA of 4.2x. We raised approximately $7 billion in debt financing across 4 currencies at an interest rate of 4.9% and an average term of 8 years.

我想強調的是，即使本季度投資了 40 億美元，資產負債表仍保持完美狀態，流動性約為 64 億美元，EBITDA 債務為 4.2 倍。我們以 4.9% 的利率、平均期限為 8 年，以 4 種貨幣籌集了約 70 億美元的債務融資。

Turning to our markets. The trend to normalization, which we've been speaking to for some time continues. Proposal activity, gestation and pre-leasing of vacancy are all within a few percent of their pre-COVID levels, a period which we've highlighted many times with itself historically strong.

轉向我們的市場。我們已經談論了一段時間的正常化趨勢仍在繼續。提案活動、醞釀和預租空置率都在新冠疫情前水平的百分之幾之內，我們已經多次強調過這一時期，該時期本身就具有歷史性的強勁表現。

Our IBI sentiment index picked up in the quarter to over 58%, indicating a continued strong backdrop for demand as described by our customers and further supported by utilization increasing to 85.5%. Unsurprisingly, customers have been more deliberate in their decision-making amidst the uptick in vacancy.

我們的 IBI 情緒指數在本季度回升至 58% 以上，表明客戶所描述的需求持續強勁，並受到利用率增至 85.5% 的進一步支撐。毫不奇怪，在職位空缺增加的情況下，客戶在決策時更加慎重。

We continue to believe that this will be a short-lived reprieve as construction starts have indeed declined significantly for our expectations. Starts in the second quarter were down approximately 40% across our U.S. markets and 50% in Europe.

我們仍然認為，這將是短暫的緩刑，因為開工率確實比我們的預期大幅下降。第二季度美國市場的開工率下降了約 40%，歐洲市場的開工率下降了 50%。

We see deliveries in 2024 following shorter demand, reducing vacancy over the course of next year. Significant attention has been given to Southern California in recent months. While our portfolio is over 97% leased, and we are achieving record rent change, vacancy has grown, partially due to port operations that have not yet returned to normal.

由於需求減少，我們預計 2024 年將交付，從而減少明年的空置率。近幾個月來，南加州受到了極大的關注。雖然我們的投資組合超過 97% 已出租，並且我們正在實現創紀錄的租金變化，但空置率有所增加，部分原因是港口運營尚未恢復正常。

Additionally, some customers are reevaluating expansion in the Inland Empire, diversifying operations to other Southwest markets. With all of this in mind, we've reduced our rent growth forecast for Southern California in 2023. However, given what is still low vacancy together with structural headwinds to new supply and a huge consumption base, we believe strongly in this market.

此外，一些客戶正在重新評估在內陸帝國的擴張，將業務多元化到其他西南市場。考慮到所有這些，我們降低了南加州 2023 年的租金增長預測。然而，考慮到空置率仍然較低，加上新供應的結構性阻力和龐大的消費基礎，我們對這個市場抱有堅定的信心。

The global nature of our portfolio means that we'll see markets contribute to growth in different periods, even in our peaks and troughs. We see this playing out in a number of markets across the globe where our rent growth forecast is increasing this quarter such as Las Vegas, Texas, Europe and Mexico, to name a few.

我們投資組合的全球性意味著我們將看到市場在不同時期對增長做出貢獻，即使是在高峰和低谷。我們看到這種情況在全球許多市場上演，我們的租金增長預測在本季度有所增加，例如拉斯維加斯、德克薩斯州、歐洲和墨西哥等。

All of this together with the more than 5% rent growth to date has us reforecasting the full year to a range of 7% to 9% on a global basis. What matters more than what will transpire in the next 6 months is what we see over the medium term, which is growth that will be fueled by escalating replacement costs, growing barriers to new supply and ongoing secular drivers of demand.

所有這些加上迄今為止超過 5% 的租金增長，使我們重新預測全年全球租金增長在 7% 至 9% 的範圍內。比未來 6 個月發生的事情更重要的是我們在中期看到的情況，即不斷上升的重置成本、不斷增加的新供應障礙以及持續的長期需求驅動因素將推動增長。

Late in the second quarter, we announced and closed on the acquisition of over 14 million square foot portfolio in many of our best U.S. markets. We estimate an 8% unlevered IRR simply at the property level, exclusive of additional return driven by property management synergies, essentials opportunities, including solar and the upside we expect through revenue management.

第二季度末，我們宣布並完成了在美國許多最佳市場收購超過 1400 萬平方英尺的投資組合。我們估計房地產層面的無槓桿 IRR 為 8%，不包括物業管理協同效應、必需品機會（包括太陽能）以及我們通過收益管理預期的上行空間帶來的額外回報。

While this was the largest transaction in the quarter, overall activity increased slightly, bringing additional price discovery to the market. In Europe, values have been relatively stable, experiencing a 1% decline over the second quarter. Latin America saw an increase in values with write-ups in Brazil and Mexico of 2% and 5%, respectively, and write-downs in the U.S. were in line with expectations, approximately 5% driving the cumulative decline over the last year to 12%.

雖然這是本季度最大的交易，但整體活動略有增加，為市場帶來了更多的價格發現。在歐洲，價值相對穩定，比第二季度下降了 1%。拉丁美洲的價值有所增加，巴西和墨西哥的減記分別為 2% 和 5%，美國的減記符合預期，約為 5%，導致去年累計跌幅達到 12%。 %。

With this move, we view the values as fair and are proceeding on redemptions in USLF for the third quarter. New redemption requests in the quarter totaled approximately $800 million and was concentrated in USLF and our China venture where values have held up better. Together with other activity, the net redemption queue stands at approximately $1.6 billion.

通過這一舉措，我們認為價值是公平的，並將繼續進行第三季度 USLF 的贖回。本季度新的贖回請求總額約為 8 億美元，主要集中在價值表現較好的 USLF 和我們的中國企業。加上其他活動，淨贖回隊列約為 16 億美元。

Outside of the open-ended funds, the company raised an incremental $1.2 billion comprised of $500 million in the Fibra and NPR as well as a new $700 million commitment for a complementary vehicle in Japan, PJLF, which is detailed in our supplemental.

除了開放式基金之外，該公司還籌集了 12 億美元增量資金，其中包括 Fibra 和 NPR 中的 5 億美元，以及日本補充工具 PJLF 的新承諾 7 億美元，詳情請參閱我們的補充材料。

Before turning to guidance, I'd like to mention a few updates across our Essentials business. We added 45 megawatts of new solar production and storage in the first half of the year, bringing our platform total to 450 megawatts, nearly 50% of the way to our 1 gigawatt goal for 2025.

在轉向指導之前，我想提一下我們的 Essentials 業務的一些更新。今年上半年，我們新增了 45 兆瓦的太陽能發電和存儲容量，使我們的平台總容量達到 450 兆瓦，接近 2025 年 1 吉瓦目標的 50%。

Additionally, Prologis mobility, our EV business, has more than 65 fleet charging sites in the pipeline across the U.S. and Europe. In terms of our outlook for the balance of the year, we are guiding average occupancy to range between 97% and 97.5%. We are increasing our same-store guidance to 8.75% to 9.25% on a net effective basis and 9.5% to 10% on a cash basis.

此外，我們的電動汽車業務安博移動在美國和歐洲擁有超過 65 個車隊充電站。就我們對今年餘下時間的展望而言，我們將平均入住率指導在 97% 至 97.5% 之間。我們將淨有效率同店指導提高至 8.75% 至 9.25%，現金指導則提高至 9.5% 至 10%。

Net effective rent change propelling same-store should continue to accelerate in the next 2 quarters and average approximately 80% over the year. We are maintaining our G&A guidance to range between $380 million and $390 million and are increasing our strategic capital revenue guidance, excluding promotes, to range between $520 million and $530 million.

推動同店的淨有效租金變化將在未來兩個季度繼續加速，全年平均約為 80%。我們將 G&A 指導維持在 3.8 億至 3.9 億美元之間，並將戰略資本收入指導（不包括促銷）提高至 5.2 億至 5.3 億美元之間。

As a result of the outperformance in USLF promote, we are increasing our forecast for net promote income to $475 million. Year-to-date, we are in excess of this amount, but amortization expense will continue over the back half of the year. Development starts picked up during the quarter with commencements of 12 projects around the globe. And while we remain very selective on new spec starts, we are maintaining our guidance of $2.5 billion to $3 billion for the year.

由於 USLF 促銷的出色表現，我們將淨促銷收入預測提高至 4.75 億美元。今年迄今為止，我們已經超過了這個數額，但攤銷費用將在今年下半年繼續存在。本季度開發進度有所加快，全球有 12 個項目開工。雖然我們對新規格的啟動仍然非常挑剔，但我們仍維持今年 25 億至 30 億美元的指導。

We had over $550 million in contribution and disposition activity during the quarter concentrated in Japan and Mexico and are maintaining guidance of $2 billion to $3 billion. Putting it all together, we are increasing guidance for GAAP earnings to range between $3.30 and $3.40 per share. We are increasing Core FFO, including promotes guidance to a range of $5.56 to $5.60 per share and increasing Core FFO, excluding promotes, to range between $5.06 and $5.10 per share.

本季度我們的貢獻和處置活動超過 5.5 億美元，主要集中在日本和墨西哥，並維持 20 億至 30 億美元的指導。總而言之，我們將 GAAP 收益指引提高至每股 3.30 美元至 3.40 美元之間。我們正在增加核心 FFO，包括將促銷指導範圍提高至每股 5.56 美元至 5.60 美元，並將核心 FFO（不包括促銷）提高至每股 5.06 美元至 5.10 美元。

With the midpoint representing over 10% annual growth, marking our fourth consecutive year of double-digit earnings growth. The quarter highlighted in many ways that Prologis has diversified itself across geographies, business lines and capital sources. While rents in some markets decelerate, others with different demand drivers are now accelerating.

中點代表超過 10% 的年增長率，標誌著我們連續第四年實現兩位數的盈利增長。該季度從很多方面突顯了普洛斯在地域、業務線和資本來源方面實現了多元化。雖然一些市場的租金下降，但其他具有不同需求驅動因素的市場的租金正在加速增長。

We're seeing the same balance with property values as demonstrated over the quarter. Further, we generate incremental cash flows and value creation outside of the pure rent business, and closely related and synergistic platforms, namely strategic capital development and now Essentials. Our fundraising efforts also demonstrate the value of having alternatives.

我們看到與本季度所展示的房地產價值相同的平衡。此外，我們在純租賃業務之外產生增量現金流和價值創造，以及密切相關和協同的平台，即戰略資本開發和現在的 Essentials。我們的籌款活動也證明了替代方案的價值。

Clearly, our wide access to debt capital has been a tremendous advantage, but we also benefit from access to varied equity sources for our ventures by utilizing open end vehicles, JVs and public structures, we have the ability to be opportunistic and proactive in changing capital markets.

顯然，我們廣泛獲得債務資本是一個巨大的優勢，但我們也受益於利用開放式工具、合資企業和公共結構為我們的企業提供各種股權來源，我們有能力在改變資本方面保持機會主義和主動性市場。

As we close, I'd like to remind you of 2 upcoming events of Prologis later in the year. Our Groundbreakers Thought Leadership Forum on September 27, right here in San Francisco and our Investor Forum on December 13 in New York. Additional information for each is available on our website.

在我們結束之際，我想提醒您普洛斯今年晚些時候即將舉辦的兩場活動。我們的開拓者思想領導力論壇將於 9 月 27 日在舊金山舉行，我們的投資者論壇將於 12 月 13 日在紐約舉行。我們的網站上提供了每種產品的更多信息。

With that, I will hand it back to the operator for your questions.

這樣，我會將其交還給接線員以解答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Tom Catherwood with BTIG.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Tom Catherwood。

Tim, I appreciate your commentary around guidance on projected rent growth. Kind of a 2-part question on that. First, have you adjusted your projection for U.S. rent growth? I think it was previously 10% and you mentioned it globally now?

蒂姆，我很欣賞你對預計租金增長指導的評論。這是一個由兩部分組成的問題。首先，您是否調整了對美國租金增長的預測？我想以前是10%，現在你在全球範圍內提到了？

And then can you provide some more detail around those markets or regions where, as you said, you've seen rent growth and values kind of exceed expectations? And then conversely, are there others like Southern California that have somewhat lagged your expectations?

然後，您能否提供有關那些市場或地區的更多詳細信息，正如您所說，您看到租金增長和價值超出了預期？相反，是否還有其他地區（例如南加州）的表現有些落後於您的預期？

Tom, I'll start and probably pitch it to Chris here for some help on the market detail. But the U.S. at this point, I would put in a similar range, really, given the weight of the U.S. And the notion that we're going to put these things in ranges probably from here, it's going to be very similar to the globe.

湯姆，我將首先向克里斯推銷，以尋求有關市場細節的一些幫助。但在這一點上，考慮到美國的權重，我真的會把美國放在一個類似的範圍內，而且我們可能會從這裡開始將這些東西放在一個範圍內，這將與全球非常相似。

So I would just think of them as essentially the same. And then in terms of markets, clearly, I mentioned in my remarks that Southern California is the market that we've downgraded. That's broadly the base of our change and pretty much the only market.

所以我認為它們本質上是相同的。然後就市場而言，顯然，我在發言中提到南加州是我們降級的市場。這基本上是我們變革的基礎，也是唯一的市場。

And it is met by various markets, as I also detailed many in Southeast U.S., but it's pretty broad around the U.S. as well as globally that are picking up the slack and holding the average pretty close when you put it in a range.

正如我在美國東南部詳細介紹的那樣，各個市場都滿足了這一要求，但在美國乃至全球範圍內，這種情況相當廣泛，這些市場正在彌補這一不足，並在將其置於一定範圍內時將平均值保持在相當接近的水平。

Our next question comes from Blaine Heck with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Blaine Heck。

So we noticed lease proposals trended downward throughout the quarter and gestation increase towards the end of the quarter. Can you just talk about what factors might be driving those trends? And whether you think we'll continue to see lease proposals trend down? Or should we expect an inflection in the second half?

因此，我們注意到租賃提案在整個季度呈下降趨勢，而在本季度末則呈上升趨勢。您能否談談哪些因素可能推動這些趨勢？您是否認為我們會繼續看到租賃提案呈下降趨勢？或者我們應該期待下半年出現轉折嗎？

It's Chris Caton. So really, when we look at that data, the right way to look at that is against our open availabilities. And when you put those proposals against our open availabilities, they're actually in line or above the historical average. 48% is that number. It's something we've used in the past on these calls.

我是克里斯·卡頓。因此，實際上，當我們查看這些數據時，正確的查看方法是根據我們的開放可用性來查看。當您將這些建議與我們的開放可用性相比時，它們實際上符合或高於歷史平均水平。 48% 就是這個數字。這是我們過去在這些通話中使用過的東西。

And so how do we make the proposal numbers you're talking about tie with that view? Well, there are 2 or 3 drivers. The first is that the availabilities, just the role that we have in the next 12 months are low relative to history.

那麼我們如何使您正在談論的提案數字與該觀點相一致呢？嗯，有兩三個司機。首先是我們在未來 12 個月內所扮演的角色相對於歷史而言較低。

The second is those proposal volumes do include sometimes multiple proposals on a single unit, and that has declined over the last year as we've discussed previously. And then third, there's some seasonality where June would be a soft month.

第二個是這些提案量有時確實包括針對單個單元的多個提案，正如我們之前討論的那樣，這一數量在去年有所下降。第三，由於某些季節性因素，六月將是一個疲軟的月份。

Our next question comes from Craig Mailman with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Craig Mailman。

Maybe I'd slip in 2 questions here. I guess, maybe Tim and Chris, to follow up on Tom's question around the market rent growth. It looks like the U.S. dropped about 200 basis points. I mean could you give us some more numbers around what the biggest moving parts of that were from a market perspective?

也許我會在這裡插入兩個問題。我想，也許蒂姆和克里斯會跟進湯姆關於市場租金增長的問題。看起來美國下跌了約200個基點。我的意思是，從市場角度來看，您能否給我們提供更多關於其中最大的變化部分的數字？

And then separately on occupancy here. You guys came down 80 bps sequentially on ending quarter. Obviously, I know you're 50 basis points on average. But SoCal, New Jersey, Central Valley, Atlanta, all kind of came down here. Just curious if there's -- if that's where you're seeing the most supply or if you had any incremental impact from the Blackstone acquisition that was weighed on some of those numbers?

然後再單獨談談這裡的入住情況。你們在最後一個季度連續下降了 80 個基點。顯然，我知道你的平均利率是 50 個基點。但南加州、新澤西州、中央谷地、亞特蘭大，都來到了這裡。只是好奇是否有 - 如果這是您看到最多供應的地方，或者黑石收購是否對其中一些數字產生了任何增量影響？

Yes. So on the rent piece, we're not going to go through market rent growth at a market level for a variety of reasons. I think the takeaway we want you and everyone to be left with is just how it can all come into a balance, and we're very pleased to see that we're able to hold the forecast at least in a pretty tight range to where we were previously.

是的。因此，在租金方面，由於多種原因，我們不會在市場水平上經歷市場租金增長。我認為我們希望您和每個人留下的收穫就是如何實現平衡，我們很高興看到我們能夠至少將預測保持在一個相當小的範圍內我們以前是。

And on the occupancy side, you're right about where the ending pieces. I would just comment that, that's in line with our forecast. If you look at our average same-store -- average occupancy guidance that we have previously and that we have this quarter, it's unchanged. So the decline that we have expected over the year remains and everything that you've seen in this quarter is in line with those expectations.

在入住方面，你對結局的看法是正確的。我只想評論一下，這符合我們的預測。如果你看看我們之前和本季度的平均同店平均入住率指導，就會發現它沒有變化。因此，我們預計今年的下降仍然存在，並且您在本季度看到的一切都符合這些預期。

Yes. The one thing I would add to that is that I think we mentioned to you last quarter that we would be continuing to push rents pretty hard and would like to see occupancies a bit lower than 98%. So what you're seeing is consistent with what we're planning to do and actually we accomplished what we wanted to do in that we track the number of leases that we lose because of price and how hard we're pushing and we modulate around that to figure out the trade-off between rents and occupancy.

是的。我要補充的一件事是，我想我們上個季度向您提到，我們將繼續大力推高租金，並希望看到入住率略低於 98%。因此，您所看到的與我們計劃做的事情是一致的，實際上我們完成了我們想做的事情，因為我們跟踪了由於價格而損失的租賃數量以及我們推動的力度，並進行了調整來計算租金和入住率之間的權衡。

So we did see as a result of our efforts and uptick in basically the percentage of deals lost due to price. It went up from about 10% to about 20%, which is kind of where we'd like to have it. So it's intangible.

因此，我們確實看到，由於我們的努力，由於價格而損失的交易比例基本上有所上升。它從大約 10% 上升到大約 20%，這正是我們想要的。所以它是無形的。

Our next question comes from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的凱特琳·伯羅斯。

Maybe like you mentioned, there's been a lot of discussion about Southern California, so I'll ask another one there. But I guess just thinking about the idea that it might be lagging now, can you give more details on what could be causing the change in that market, kind of how long it could last and which market could potentially face similar issues?

也許就像你提到的，關於南加州有很多討論，所以我會問那裡的另一位。但我想，只是考慮一下現在可能會滯後的想法，您能否提供更多詳細信息，說明可能導致該市場變化的原因、這種變化可能持續多長時間以及哪個市場可能面臨類似的問題？

Sure. Let me take a stab at that because I've seen this now a couple of times over the last 30, 40 years. Southern California is really being adversely affected by 2 things; one, port volumes. I think this labor strike has gone on longer than most people anticipated.

當然。讓我嘗試一下這個問題，因為在過去的 30、40 年裡我已經見過幾次這樣的情況了。南加州確實受到兩件事的不利影響；一、端口量。我認為這次罷工持續的時間比大多數人預期的要長。

And the timing of it was such that people had to make decisions about the Christmas season and they've shifted volumes to other ports, and that affects Southern California. And honestly, the longer this goes out I believe the worst it will be for Southern California in terms of doing permanent damage.

其時間安排使得人們必須就聖誕節季節做出決定，他們已將貨物轉移到其他港口，這影響了南加州。老實說，這種情況持續的時間越長，我相信對南加州造成的永久性損害將是最嚴重的。

Now from everything we hear, and we're not an expert on this, things are apparently heading in a positive direction with respect to a resolution but you read the same things we do. So I don't have any unique perspectives on that. The other difference with Southern California is just pricing. I mean you had between '20 and '22 about 130% increase in rents in Southern California.

現在，從我們所聽到的一切來看，我們不是這方面的專家，事情顯然正朝著決議的積極方向發展，但你讀到的內容與我們所做的相同。所以我對此沒有什麼獨特的看法。與南加州的另一個區別只是定價。我的意思是，20 世紀 20 至 22 年間，南加州的租金上漲了約 130%。

That compares to less than half of that for the overall markets that we operate in. So there is more price sensitivity now because it's a very, very expensive market. So to the extent possible, people will shift to adjacent markets. And combined -- it's not just price, but up until a quarter ago, occupancy in the Inland Empire was 99-point-something percent. So people couldn't even get the space that they wanted.

相比之下，我們經營的整個市場的價格還不到一半。因此，現在對價格的敏感性更高，因為這是一個非常非常昂貴的市場。因此，在可能的情況下，人們會轉向鄰近市場。綜合起來，不僅僅是價格，而且直到一個季度前，內陸帝國的入住率為 99% 左右。所以人們甚至無法獲得他們想要的空間。

I think with a more normalized vacancy level, and we're still not at normal. I mean, normalized, in my experience, is 95% occupancy. And that would have been great for the last 15 or 20 years. I think with more normalized occupancy, you'll see -- and the resolution of the labor strike, I think you see a more normal pattern from which you can draw some conclusions.

我認為空缺水平更加正常化，但我們仍然沒有達到正常水平。我的意思是，根據我的經驗，標準化是 95% 的入住率。這對於過去 15 年或 20 年來說本來就很棒。我認為，隨著入住率更加正常化，你會看到——以及勞工罷工的解決，我認為你會看到一個更正常的模式，你可以從中得出一些結論。

And our next question comes from Steve Sakwa with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Steve Sakwa。

I guess maybe kind of a 2-parter. Just Hamid, if you could just maybe talk about demand by size of tenant and whether you're seeing any real disparities in sort of the under 250 or under 100 and anything kind of on the bigger side?

我想也許有點像兩方。哈米德，您是否可以談談租戶規模的需求，以及您是否看到 250 歲以下或 100 歲以下以及更大方面的任何真正差異？

And then just I guess your confidence level around the level of development starts, it's obviously a very back-end weighted sort of hockey stick figure for the second half of the year. So how much of those projects are currently teed up? And what do you think that split of starts looks like between the third and the fourth quarters?

然後我猜你對發展水平的信心水平開始了，這顯然是下半年的一個非常後端加權的曲棍球棒圖。那麼這些項目目前有多少已經準備就緒？你認為第三節和第四節的開局情況如何？

Yes. Let me start on the development volume, and then I'll pitch it over to Dan for the other commentary. We do not care about development starts. We do not care about the acquisition guidance. We will -- we make all these decisions one by one and only when it makes sense to pull the trigger on these.

是的。讓我從開髮捲開始，然後我會將其交給 Dan 進行其他評論。我們不關心開發的開始。我們不關心收購指導。我們將——我們將一一做出所有這些決定，並且只有在有意義的情況下才會做出這些決定。

They're buying large already, more or less, and we could, on a discretionary basis, start all of them today. But that would not be a wise thing to do, and we're not going to do it just to meet some artificial guidance. I think the main driver of earnings in this company, which is what we all care about is rental growth and same-store growth.

他們已經或多或少地大量購買，我們可以酌情從今天開始全部購買。但這並不是明智之舉，我們不會僅僅為了滿足一些人為的指導而這樣做。我認為這家公司盈利的主要驅動力，也是我們大家都關心的，是租金增長和同店增長。

And all I can tell you is that with mid-60s mark-to-market, you can model whatever scenario you want, including 0 rent growth from here on out and for the next 4 years, 5 years, you're going to get same-store NOI increase of 7.5% with no rental growth from this point forward.

我能告訴你的是，按照 60 年代中期的市價計算，你可以模擬任何你想要的場景，包括從現在開始零租金增長，在接下來的 4 年、5 年裡，你將得到同店 NOI 增長 7.5%，此後租金不再增長。

You put in our normalized forecast for rental growth, our best guess, and that same-store growth will be at 8.5%. Both of those numbers are consistent with low double-digit earnings growth while maintaining our leverage, which is so low.

如果您輸入我們對租金增長的標準化預測（我們的最佳猜測），同店增長將為 8.5%。這兩個數字都與低兩位數的盈利增長一致，同時保持我們的槓桿率如此之低。

So I don't -- we don't need development starts to drive anything, and we're not going to get in a position of jeopardizing our pricing power by virtue of wanting to meet an artificial development goal. Now having said all that, we will start the ones that we think we can lease efficiently and economically and quickly, and the land is there, the approvals are there and our ability to put buildings up is there.

所以我不——我們不需要發展開始來推動任何事情，我們也不會因為想要實現人為的發展目標而陷入危及我們定價能力的境地。說了這麼多，我們將開始那些我們認為可以高效、經濟、快速地租賃的項目，土地已經有了，審批已經有了，我們建造建築物的能力也有了。

So there is no benefit in front-end loading that stuff. I'm pushing it ahead of where it needs to be. Dan, do you want to address the size question?

所以前端加載這些東西沒有任何好處。我正在把它推到它需要的位置之前。丹，你想解決尺寸問題嗎？

Yes, sure. So we have -- we're seeing continued broad-based demand across all size ranges. Now there certainly are pockets of -- in certain markets that there is some risk and maybe the bulk. And those are markets we talked about historically. South Dallas, North Fort Worth, Indianapolis is getting a fair amount of bulk built out.

是的，當然。因此，我們看到各種尺寸範圍的持續廣泛需求。現在，在某些市場中肯定存在一些風險，甚至可能是大部分風險。這些是我們歷史上討論過的市場。南達拉斯、北沃斯堡、印第安納波利斯正在建設大量的土地。

But -- and then I would say West Phoenix as well. But what I would say with our portfolio overall, we're really isolated from any of this bulk risk, and we're really confident in the demand across all size ranges.

但是——然後我也會說西鳳凰城。但我想說的是，就我們的整體投資組合而言，我們確實擺脫了任何此類大風險，並且我們對所有規模範圍的需求都非常有信心。

And your next question comes from Ki Bin Kim with Truist.

您的下一個問題來自 Ki Bin Kim 和 Truist。

Turning to your capital deployment. It's a $3 billion Blackstone deal at a 5.75% stabilized cap rate. Can you just discuss how you view the attractiveness of this deal versus some other opportunities that you might have had such as stock buybacks or development? Or do you simply think the value per square foot probably shouldn't decrease much further from here on out?

轉向您的資本部署。黑石集團的這筆交易價值 30 億美元，穩定資本化率為 5.75%。您能否談談您如何看待這筆交易與您可能擁有的其他機會（例如股票回購或開發）的吸引力？或者您只是認為從現在開始每平方英尺的價值可能不會進一步下降？

Yes. I mean certainly, portfolios that we would acquire would be at a discount to replacement cost. And replacement cost has moved up tremendously in the last couple of years by virtue of -- forget about the land piece because that's a squishy piece that's related to rents and all that.

是的。我的意思是，我們收購的投資組合肯定會比重置成本打折。在過去的幾年裡，重置成本已經大幅上升，因為——忘記那塊土地，因為那是一塊與租金等相關的濕軟的土地。

But the construction piece is really, really escalated. So to buy standing inventory in our best markets is always a really great thing that we look at. The quality of the portfolio was quite high, I would say, very close to our own portfolio.

但建設工作確實非常非常升級。因此，在我們最好的市場購買常備庫存始終是我們關注的一件非常好的事情。我想說，該投資組合的質量非常高，非常接近我們自己的投資組合。

The percentage that we would dispose of is 0. So it was hand selected to meet our requirements. I wouldn't call it a steal. We didn't steal anything. I think it's a market rate transaction. And with the upside built into the rents, 8% IRR in a world that I think is going to be a sub 3% inflation rate and then all the added things we can put on top of it with essentials and all that, develop capital at those rates all day long.

我們要處置的百分比是 0。所以它是手工選擇的以滿足我們的要求。我不會稱之為偷竊。我們沒有偷任何東西。我認為這是市場利率交易。隨著租金的上漲，在我認為通貨膨脹率將低於 3% 的世界中，內部收益率為 8%，然後我們可以在其之上添加所有必需品和所有其他東西，以這些費率全天。

Your next question comes from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的邁克爾·戈德史密斯。

The lease percentage of the development pipeline has been dropping pretty materially kind of back to 2019 levels. What are the factors there? And does this impact your ability to hit your yields expected on these developments?

開發項目的租賃百分比已大幅下降至 2019 年的水平。這裡面有哪些因素呢？這是否會影響您實現這些開發項目預期收益的能力？

Yes. I think maybe the best way of summarizing this call would be, we're back to 2019, okay? We're getting at it in 25 different ways. But the easiest way to think about it is demand, supply, rental growth, all of those things are trending back to 2019 pre-COVID. And if you take '20 to '22 out of the picture and imagine that in 2019, somebody would tell you that in 2023, you're still talking about the dynamics of 2019 market, I would be jumping up and down happy about that. So that's where we are. And almost any question -- I'm not trying to avoid your question, but it would be the same answer on 20 other parameters as well. We're back to 2019.

是的。我認為總結這次電話會議的最佳方式可能是，我們回到了 2019 年，好嗎？我們以 25 種不同的方式來解決這個問題。但最簡單的思考方式是需求、供應、租金增長，所有這些都在回溯到 2019 年新冠疫情之前的趨勢。如果你把‘20’到‘22’排除在外，想像一下在 2019 年，有人會告訴你，到 2023 年，你還在談論 2019 年市場的動態，我會為此高興得跳起來。這就是我們現在的處境。幾乎任何問題——我並不是想迴避你的問題，但對於其他 20 個參數也有相同的答案。我們又回到了2019年。

Our next question comes from Nick Thillman with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自尼克·蒂爾曼和貝爾德。

Hamid kind of touched on you guys competing on price, like 20% of tenants not renewing because of that. But retention is dropping down to 70%. So of those tenants that aren't renewing, are they not -- where do they end up going? Do they go to a new supply or a new product that's being delivered? Or is it more sort of a scenario where they're just completely priced out of the market?

哈米德談到了你們在價格上的競爭，比如 20% 的租戶因此而沒有續約。但保留率正在下降至 70%。那麼，那些不續約的租戶，他們最終會去哪裡呢？他們會選擇新的供應還是正在交付的新產品？或者這更像是一種情況，即它們完全被定價出局？

No, they go somewhere else. I mean those are real needs. And at the end of the day, warehouse rent is -- as a percentage of total logistic cost is relatively small. So they're not going to go out of business because of that. I mean, frankly, the pressure on energy prices and fuel prices and labor price and all that, if you're going to worry about something, those are more significant than their ability to pay rent. 70% is not an unusually low retention rate.

不，他們去了別的地方。我的意思是這些是真正的需求。最終，倉庫租金佔物流總成本的百分比相對較小。所以他們不會因此而倒閉。坦率地說，我的意思是，能源價格、燃料價格和勞動力價格等方面的壓力，如果你要擔心某些事情，那麼這些壓力比他們支付租金的能力更重要。 70% 並不是一個異常低的保留率。

I mean if you, again, forget about the last 3 years, where there was no space and people had no choice. That would be a very normal rate of retention for us going back and looking at it over a 10-, 20-year time frame. So -- and we are trying to find out what the efficient point is for losing customers because of price.

我的意思是，如果你再次忘記過去三年，那裡沒有空間，人們別無選擇。對於我們在 10 年、20 年的時間範圍內回顧並觀察它來說，這將是一個非常正常的保留率。因此，我們正在努力找出因價格而失去客戶的有效點。

We can make that number be 0 but that would not be wise because that means we're not pushing rents as hard. So 20% is definitely still below where I would start worrying about dialing it the other way. If it got to about 30%, we may want to moderate on that.

我們可以將這個數字設為 0，但這並不明智，因為這意味著我們不會大力推高租金。所以 20% 肯定仍然低於我開始擔心是否以其他方式撥號的地方。如果達到 30% 左右，我們可能需要對此進行調節。

But still, generally speaking, the bias is towards pushing rents and not occupancies. Now markets where that is not the case, we'll dial it back some. But that's a decision we make day-to-day based on the data that we see. It's not a top-down type of decision.

但總的來說，人們的偏見仍然是推高租金而不是入住率。現在，如果市場情況並非如此，我們將減少一些。但這是我們根據所看到的數據每天做出的決定。這不是一種自上而下的決策。

Our next question comes from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的羅納德·卡姆德姆。

Just a couple of quick ones. So just going back to the market rent growth forecast and also Southern California, Hamid, can you give us some context in terms of what was the first half growth on the market rent growth, number one? And then number two, when you talk about sort of Southern California decelerating. Is there a way to get some contacts on it? Is it just a deceleration? Or should we be bracing for things to potentially turn negative in that market?

只是幾個快速的。那麼，回到市場租金增長預測以及南加州，哈米德，您能給我們一些關於市場租金增長第一名的上半年增長情況的背景信息嗎？第二，當你談論南加州的經濟減速時。有沒有辦法獲得一些聯繫方式？僅僅是減速嗎？或者我們應該為該市場可能出現的負面情況做好準備嗎？

So a couple of things. First of all, the most important thing about Southern California is the gas in the tank, not rental growth going forward. I mean the gas in the tank in Southern California is -- I don't know the exact number, but it's probably over 100% on your average lease.

有幾件事。首先，南加州最重要的是油箱裡的汽油，而不是未來的租金增長。我的意思是，南加州油箱裡的天然氣是——我不知道確切的數字，但可能超過平均租賃的 100%。

So whether you think rents are going to grow 3% or negative 3% or 10% or whatever, it's not going to affect that number 1 iota. Are there markets in Southern California and elsewhere where you could see rental growth sliding? Sure. Of course, there are.

因此，無論你認為租金會增長 3%、負增長 3%、10% 還是其他什麼，都不會影響第一名。南加州和其他地方的市場是否會出現租金增長下滑的情況？當然。當然有。

When something is escalated by 150%, I wouldn't be surprised if it back splits on. Do I worry about Southern California becoming a difficult market? No. I would like to have more Southern California because that means we have more cars with more gas in the tank. So there are some markets that may continue to escalate, but there's still not going to be as good as a market that has embedded growth of well over 100%.

當某些事情升級到 150% 時，如果它重新分裂，我不會感到驚訝。我是否擔心南加州會成為一個困難的市場？不。我想要更多的南加州，因為這意味著我們有更多的汽車，油箱裡有更多的汽油。因此，有些市場可能會繼續升級，但仍然不會像增長遠超 100% 的市場那樣好。

So I'm not trying to duck your question. But we're a global company. It's a 1.2 billion square foot portfolio and I think it would not be a productive use of my time or anybody else's your time to drill down into submarket or individual rents because, frankly, we don't spend a lot of time ourselves looking at that.

所以我並不是想迴避你的問題。但我們是一家全球性公司。這是一個 12 億平方英尺的投資組合，我認為這不會有效地利用我的時間或其他人的時間來深入研究子市場或個人租金，因為坦率地說，我們自己不會花很多時間來研究這個問題。 。

We look at it bottoms up deal by deal. And then we make our long-term investment decisions based on some macro bets. And what I'm telling you is that we like Southern California because of its embedded mark-to-market.

我們逐筆查看它自下而上的情況。然後我們根據一些宏觀押注做出長期投資決策。我要告訴你的是，我們喜歡南加州，因為它根深蒂固的按市價計價。

Our next question comes from Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的邁克爾·卡羅爾。

I guess just directed to Tim, I believe last quarter that you indicated the 2024 lease expirations had an 85-plus percent mark-to-market. I mean can you touch on what is included in that estimate? Does that reflect expected market rent growth in 2023. And if so, does that 85% target in stat still hold today?

我想只是針對蒂姆，我相信上個季度您表示 2024 年租賃到期的市場價值超過 85%。我的意思是，您能談談該估算中包含哪些內容嗎？這是否反映了 2023 年預期的市場租金增長。如果是這樣，統計數據中 85% 的目標今天仍然成立嗎？

We would be in the 80s. Let me put it that way right now, and that would contemplates market rent growth from here. So we feel good about still hitting that kind of number, but we'll give full guidance on it later in the year.

我們將在 80 年代。讓我現在這樣說，這將考慮從這裡開始的市場租金增長。因此，我們對仍然達到這個數字感到滿意，但我們將在今年晚些時候給出全面的指導。

Yes. I don't think we know anything that suggests a different number than one we told you before. So it's essentially the same number.

是的。我認為我們所知道的任何數字都與我們之前告訴過您的數字不同。所以它本質上是相同的數字。

Your next question comes from Camille Bonnel with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Camille Bonnel。

So to clarify on Hamid's comments around the portfolio's embedded NOI growth. If rents grew another 5% as you're projecting in the back half of this year, are you expecting core NOI growth to be tracking above that 7% mention or more closely to the growth you're projecting this year? And Tim, from your opening remarks, it sounds like market rents have grown in line with expectations to date but moderated into 2Q. Can you just comment on how the pace of growth looks like for the remainder of the year based on your team's reduction?

因此，我們要澄清哈米德關於投資組合嵌入式 NOI 增長的評論。如果按照您預測的今年下半年租金再增長 5%，您是否預計核心 NOI 增長將高於 7%，或更接近您今年預測的增長？蒂姆，從您的開場白來看，迄今為止市場租金的增長符合預期，但進入第二季度後有所放緩。您能否根據您團隊的裁員來評論一下今年剩餘時間的增長速度？

Well, I'll take the first one. I think -- I want to be sure we're not conflating a couple of things on same-store. So Hamid's illustration earlier was about a 4-year horizon, what we think will unfold in terms of market rent growth. That would be that roughly 8.5% average.

好吧，我就選第一個。我想——我想確保我們不會將同一家商店的幾件事混為一談。因此，哈米德之前的插圖是關於四年的時間範圍，我們認為這將在市場租金增長方面展開。那就是大約 8.5% 的平均值。

The average same-store NOI growth, not the rent growth, same-store NOI growth. I don't even have the number for rent growth because, frankly, I don't really spend a lot of -- that's a very volatile number.

平均同店NOI增長，不是租金增長，同店NOI增長。我什至沒有租金增長的數字，因為坦率地說，我並沒有真正花很多錢——這是一個非常不穩定的數字。

Yes. And that number, by the way, incidentally incorporates what will happen in Duke in terms of its fair value lease adjustments and what we think will happen in occupancy. So that's kind of fully baked and that's a 4-year discussion.

是的。順便說一句，這個數字順便包含了杜克大學在公允價值租賃調整方面將發生的情況以及我們認為入住率將發生的情況。所以這已經是完全成熟的事情了，這是一個為期 4 年的討論。

In terms of this year, there's going to be very little that could change in any direction on market rents that would affect this year's same-store growth. So too much of the lease mark-to-market and the year, frankly, are now baked that we're going to land pretty tightly in the range that I working out.

就今年而言，市場租金的任何方向變化都不會影響今年的同店增長。坦率地說，太多的按市值計價的租賃和年份現在已經確定，我們將非常緊密地落在我計算的範圍內。

Or next year.

或者明年。

Yes, true.

是的。

And then as it relates to the rent growth detail, Tim's script included a way for you to kind of reconcile that. And I think within the numbers, the main thing to know is many markets, both in the U.S. and globally, continue to have really healthy pricing power and meaningful move in market rents, but the aggregate number is adjusted downward based on the views on Southern California that we've discussed here.

然後，由於與租金增長細節相關，蒂姆的腳本包含了一種協調方法。我認為在這些數字中，要知道的主要事情是，美國和全球的許多市場仍然擁有真正健康的定價能力和市場租金的有意義的變動，但根據南方的觀點，總數被向下調整我們在這裡討論過的加利福尼亞州。

Our next question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John Kim。

Just a follow-up on the $3 billion acquisition you made. How much of that did it contribute to your full year guidance raise, if at all? And can you comment on the pricing, just given a 4% going in cap rate, not many buyers have Prologis cost of capital. So I was wondering how you came to that level and how many competing bids or buyers that were at that level?

這只是您 30 億美元收購的後續行動。如果有的話，它對你的全年指導增長貢獻了多少？您能否評論一下定價，僅考慮到 4% 的資本化率，沒有多少買家擁有 Prologis 的資本成本。所以我想知道你們是如何達到這個水平的，有多少競爭性的出價或買家達到這個水平？

Yes, I'll pick up on the earnings side. It's about $0.005 roughly of our raise would be attributable to that. The remainder would be the same-store component.

是的，我會談談收入方面。我們的融資額中大約有 0.005 美元是由此產生的。其餘部分將是同店組件。

Yes. And on the number of competing buyers and all that, we don't know, but we actually work collaboratively with the seller to pick a portfolio that make sense for them and make sense for us. So it wasn't like there was a package and a competitive environment.

是的。關於競爭買家的數量以及所有這些，我們不知道，但我們實際上與賣家合作，選擇一個對他們有意義、對我們有意義的投資組合。所以這並不像是一個套餐和一個競爭環境。

But look, I would argue that 2 of the largest players in this space kind of know what's going on in the market, and they don't need to know a lot of third-party validation of where pricing is. And we came to an agreement reasonably quickly on that.

但是，我認為這個領域最大的兩個參與者都知道市場上正在發生什麼，他們不需要知道很多第三方對定價的驗證。我們很快就這一點達成了一致。

So we're really pleased about it because we don't have to go through the brain damage of cleaning up the portfolio. We bought what we wanted to buy at the price that we wanted to buy. And presumably, they got the price that they wanted and everybody was very happy about that, and we'd love to do more of that.

所以我們對此感到非常高興，因為我們不必經歷清理投資組合的腦損傷。我們以我們想買的價格買了我們想買的東西。想必，他們得到了他們想要的價格，每個人都對此感到非常高興，我們很樂意做更多這樣的事情。

Your next question comes from Nicholas Yulico with Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的尼古拉斯·尤利科。

Just a question in terms of what you're seeing with activity in the 3PL space. I mean some commentary we heard specifically about L.A. and 3PL was that -- was a market very tight. So tenants took as much space as they could get, in many cases, took some excess space in recent years.

只是一個關於您對 3PL 領域活動的看法的問題。我的意思是，我們聽到的一些關於洛杉磯和 3PL 的專門評論是——市場非常緊張。因此，租戶盡可能多地佔用空間，在許多情況下，近年來，租戶佔用了一些多餘的空間。

And now that those same tenants in some cases, are putting sublease space on the marketers and then you also have less demand from the user group, maybe it's a port issue in the near term. But I guess I'm just wondering broadly on 3PL, what the activity of that tenant base looks like across your portfolio?

現在，在某些情況下，這些相同的租戶正在將空間轉租給營銷人員，然後用戶群的需求也減少，也許這是近期的端口問題。但我想我只是廣泛地想知道 3PL 的租戶群在您的投資組合中的活動是什麼樣的？

Yes. I'm going to make a general comment, and it applies maybe a bit more to 3PLs, but it applies to everybody. Southern California is a market where embedded mark-to-market is well over 100%. The 3PL business is a very low-margin business, very thin margin business.

是的。我將做一個一般性評論，它可能更適用於 3PL，但它適用於所有人。南加州是一個按市值計價的市場，其比率遠遠超過 100%。 3PL業務是一項利潤率非常低、利潤非常薄的業務。

If you've taken 10% more space than you need it, and now with the changed outlook you think you need 10% less than you needed before, that's a 20% swing in how much space you're going to need over the longer term. If you can make 3 or 4x what you would make in a year, moving boxes around by subleasing that space, you would do that.

如果您佔用的空間比您需要的多了 10%，而現在隨著前景的改變，您認為您需要的空間比以前少​​了 10%，那麼您在較長時間內需要的空間就會有 20% 的波動學期。如果你可以通過轉租該空間來移動箱子，一年的收入是你的 3 或 4 倍，你就會這麼做。

So the propensity to adjust your space to your needs is much greater in this cycle because of the significant mark-to-market that's embedded in some of these leases. Now if you're in the market where -- I can't think of a market like that, but let's say, you were in a market where you're essentially a market or 10% below, by the time you pay a leasing commission and incurred the downtime and maybe put some TIs in the space, you're not going to make money on that space.

因此，在這個週期中，根據您的需求調整空間的傾向要大得多，因為其中一些租賃中包含了重要的按市價計算。現在，如果你所在的市場——我無法想像這樣的市場，但可以說，當你支付租金時，你所在的市場本質上是一個市場或低於 10%佣金並導致停機時間，並且可能在該空間中放置一些 TI，您不會在該空間上賺錢。

So it's more of a cost avoidance and therefore, not much of that happens. Southern California is actually viewed as a source of profit for these guys to sublease their real estate. So they're going to do it much quicker than before. And that's, in fact, what we've seen. So -- and it all goes back to having less than 1% vacancy in this market not too long ago.

所以這更多的是為了避免成本，因此這種情況不會發生太多。南加州實際上被這些人視為轉租房地產的利潤來源。所以他們會比以前更快地完成這件事。事實上，這就是我們所看到的。所以——這一切都可以追溯到不久前這個市場的空置率低於 1%。

So look, Southern California has been a crazy rent growth market for as long as I remember, whether you look at 30 years or 5 years or 3 years, but the last 3 years have been -- have just been ridiculous. And for anybody to think that, that would continue forever, we certainly don't make our investment decisions based on that, and we don't operate our portfolio like that. So we're not surprised about what's going on in Southern California.

所以，從我記事起，南加州就一直是一個瘋狂的租金增長市場，無論是 30 年、5 年還是 3 年，但過去 3 年一直是荒謬的。如果有人認為這種情況會永遠持續下去，我們當然不會以此為基礎做出投資決策，我們也不會那樣操作我們的投資組合。因此，我們對南加州發生的事情並不感到驚訝。

Our next question comes from Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Vikram Malhotra。

There's 2 questions. One, just looking at the lease proposal chart, correct me if I'm wrong, I think this is all in square feet. And I'm just wondering how this would compare whether you look at it as a percent of expirations or the portfolio just because you're a much bigger portfolio today with Duke in there and other acquisitions. So as a percent of the portfolio is there's something unique in terms of the trend downward it would seem as a percentage, it's probably much lower. So if you could clarify that, number one?

有 2 個問題。一，只要看一下租賃提案表，如果我錯了，請糾正我，我認為這都是平方英尺。我只是想知道，無論你將其視為到期的百分比還是投資組合，這會如何比較，因為你今天的投資組合要大得多，杜克大學在那里和其他收購。因此，作為投資組合的百分比，在下降趨勢方面有一些獨特的東西，它看起來是一個百分比，它可能要低得多。那麼，如果你能澄清這一點，第一？

And then just number two, bigger picture, Hamid, if you're talking about normalization in trends to still healthy levels, but let's just say, normalizing to 2019, where do you think the risk premium should be for public private warehouse space. Should it be higher? Is it fair as it is today?

然後是第二點，更大的前景，哈米德，如果你談論的是趨勢正常化到仍然健康的水平，但我們只是說，到 2019 年正常化，你認為公共私人倉庫空間的風險溢價應該是多少。應該更高嗎？像今天這樣公平嗎？

Yes. Let me start with that. In 2019 -- there was a big difference between now and 2019. In 2019, I don't remember the exact number, but I think vacancy rates were north of 5%, maybe even north of 6%. Today -- and the outlook in 2019 was that we had a long run of improving market conditions.

是的。讓我從那開始。 2019年——現在和2019年有很大的不同。2019年，我不記得確切的數字，但我認為空置率在5%以上，甚至可能在6%以上。今天，以及 2019 年的前景是，我們的市場狀況將長期改善。

And I think at calls like this, we are all worrying about for the sixth year in a row, whether supply would exceed demand, okay? That today, it's the same market, except the vacancy rates are substantially lower than they were at that time. And we have less of a concern about supply beyond this year that is than we had in 2019.

我認為在這樣的電話會議上，我們都連續第六年擔心供應是否會超過需求，好嗎？今天，市場還是一樣，只是空置率遠低於當時。與 2019 年相比，我們對今年以後的供應的擔憂有所減少。

So it's a slightly different market, but the dynamics are not that unusual. With respect to public to private, I continue to believe that -- I don't know about the sector, but I continue to believe that we trade at a modest discount to NAV and private values.

所以這是一個略有不同的市場，但動態並沒有那麼不尋常。就公私部門而言，我仍然相信——我不了解該行業，但我仍然相信我們的交易價格相對於資產淨值和私人價值有適度的折扣。

And I think once capital flows start up again, once the denominator effect starts going the other way because of improvements in public markets, I think that will be validated. So I do think private values in general, are slightly higher than public values where these companies are priced.

我認為，一旦資本流動再次開始，一旦由於公開市場的改善而導致分母效應開始向另一個方向發展，我認為這將得到驗證。因此，我確實認為，總體而言，私人價值略高於這些公司定價的公共價值。

And then, Vikram, on the proposal volumes, yes, that's square footage. And as to reconciling it, I'd point you to the answer given earlier to the same question. I'm happy to go through it offline, if that's not sufficient for you.

然後，維克拉姆，在提案卷上，是的，那就是平方英尺。至於協調它，我會向您指出之前對同一問題給出的答案。如果這對您來說還不夠的話，我很樂意離線瀏覽它。

And our next question comes from Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Todd Thomas。

Just another one on market rent growth. You've previously talked about a 300 to 500 basis point spread in market rent growth between coastal and noncoastal markets. In light of your comments around Southern California, can you just talk about how you expect that spread to trend as you look ahead to 2024? And are there other coastal markets that you would include in the discussion with Southern California as you think about the labor strikes and the impact that's having at the ports?

這只是市場租金增長的另一個問題。您之前曾談到沿海和非沿海市場之間的市場租金增長存在 300 到 500 個基點的差異。根據您對南加州的評論，您能否談談展望 2024 年時您預計這種傳播趨勢如何？當您考慮勞工罷工及其對港口的影響時，您是否會在與南加州的討論中包括其他沿海市場？

Yes. I want to be clear about what we said. If you look at all the markets that we operate in, Southern California is going to have the highest rent growth of all, not market rent growth. Maybe the market rent growth will modulate, but because of the mark-to-market, Southern California for the foreseeable future. And by that, I mean 5 years plus is going to have the highest growth rate of any market that I can think of. Chris?

是的。我想澄清我們所說的話。如果你看看我們經營的所有市場，南加州的租金增長將是最高的，而不是市場租金增長。也許市場租金增長將會調整，但由於按市價計算，南加州在可預見的未來。我的意思是，五年多的時間將是我能想到的所有市場中增長率最高的。克里斯？

100%.

100%。

Yes. And that can go on literally for 5 to 10 years. So -- because the mark-to-market is so huge. Now in terms of the market rent growth, I don't know, we'll find out. But it's -- our view has moderated, but that really doesn't matter.

是的。這種情況實際上可以持續 5 到 10 年。所以——因為按市值計價是如此巨大。現在就市場租金增長而言，我不知道，我們會找出答案。但我們的觀點有所緩和，但這並不重要。

It's kind of like adding 2% to 3% in one direction or the other to a number that's north of 100%. So I think we're focusing on the wrong issues. I don't really know the answer to your question. If I did, I'd tell you.

這有點像在一個方向或另一個方向上向 100% 以上的數字添加 2% 到 3%。所以我認為我們關注的是錯誤的問題。我真的不知道你問題的答案。如果是的話，我會告訴你。

Our next question comes from Anthony Powell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼·鮑威爾。

Just a question on contributions. It looks like you restarted them this quarter with Japan and Mexico. Is it still the plan to restart contributions in the U.S. and Europe later this year? And how is that progressing overall?

只是一個關於貢獻的問題。看起來您本季度與日本和墨西哥重新啟動了它們。今年晚些時候是否仍計劃在美國和歐洲重新啟動捐款？整體進展如何？

Yes, I'll start and pitch it over to Caton. Look, the reason we stopped contribution is not because we didn't have the capacity to buy these assets in our funds. We did because they're very low leverage.

是的，我會開始並將其交給卡頓。看，我們停止捐款的原因並不是因為我們沒有能力購買我們基金中的這些資產。我們這樣做是因為他們的槓桿率非常低。

The reason we did is that we couldn't really look our investors in the eyes and say that we all have clarity around the values for the fund or for the properties that are being contributed. So we're not in a rush to do that.

我們這樣做的原因是，我們無法真正看著投資者的眼睛，並說我們都清楚基金或所貢獻的財產的價值。所以我們並不急於這樣做。

There are some companies that forced these decisions back in the last cycle that -- and we didn't and we fared much better than those companies that force the contributions. So as long as there is clarity on valuations, we will contribute assets, at least we would be willing to contribute assets, but I'd remind all of you, at the end of the day, the independent advisory board for each fund makes the decisions of whether they want to accept those contributions or not.

有些公司在上一個週期中強製做出了這些決定——而我們沒有，而且我們的表現比那些強製做出貢獻的公司要好得多。所以只要估值清晰，我們就會貢獻資產，至少我們願意貢獻資產，但是我要提醒大家，最終，每個基金的獨立顧問委員會都會做出決定他們是否願意接受這些捐款。

It's not a must put, must take kind of a situation at all. So -- but we couldn't very much look them in the eyes and say that this is the value because there was uncertainty around it. In the markets that you mentioned, there is clarity around the values. Europe, we felt that it reached a point of clarity at the end of last quarter, and we believe the U.S. is now becoming very clear, too.

這不是必須放置，而是必須採取某種情況。所以，但我們不能直視他們的眼睛並說這就是價值，因為它存在不確定性。在您提到的市場中，價值觀是明確的。歐洲，我們認為上季度末已經達到了清晰的程度，我們相信美國現在也變得非常清晰。

And the whole process took about 3/4 from the downturn, which is what we expected it to take based on experience. So you should expect contributions to continue at sort of a normal or maybe somewhat modulated pace.

整個過程從低迷開始大約花了3/4，這是我們根據經驗預計的。因此，您應該期望貢獻會繼續以正常的或可能有所調整的速度進行。

Our next question comes from Mike Mueller with -- Go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自邁克·穆勒（Mike Mueller）：繼續吧。

Caton, do you have anything to add to that?

卡頓，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that's right. I mean we will probably look at contributions in Q4, no rushes besides going through that ordinary course of business and split it between both in Europe and the U.S.

不，我認為這是對的。我的意思是，我們可能會關注第四季度的貢獻，除了正常的業務流程並將其分配到歐洲和美國之外，不著急。

And our next question is from Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的邁克·穆勒。

I guess following up on that contribution question, are you seeing any traction yet in the third quarter with dispositions?

我想在回答這個貢獻問題後，您是否看到第三季度的處置有任何牽引力？

We are not trying to dispose of a whole lot because remember, we're almost through all the liberty ones, and Duke had very little dispositions associated with it. We sold a couple of them of late.

我們並不想處置掉很多東西，因為請記住，我們幾乎已經完成了所有自由的處置，而杜克大學幾乎沒有與之相關的處置。我們最近賣掉了其中幾個。

And the latest Blackstone portfolio has 0 dispositions in it. So I mean, other than the normal sort of Bluebird dispositions, we're kind of reaching the end of cleaning up the portfolio, there. There are a few deals here and there, but then -- what would you add to that?

最新的 Blackstone 投資組合中的配置為 0。所以我的意思是，除了藍鳥的正常配置之外，我們已經接近清理投資組合的結尾了。到處都有一些交易，但是——你會添加什麼？

I would say the transaction market is opening up, and we're very confident we're going to be able to dispose of what we want when we want.

我想說交易市場正在開放，我們非常有信心能夠在我們想要的時候處理我們想要的東西。

But it's not a material amount. It's not going to move the needle on our company.

但這並不是一個實質性的數額。這不會對我們公司產生任何影響。

Next question comes from Craig Mailman with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Craig Mailman。

It's actually Nick Joseph here with Craig. Just going back to a comment you made earlier on the Blackstone portfolio deal, you said you've worked with the seller kind of on what would work for both sides. Obviously, they own a lot clearly, there was a lot to choose from. So kind of what were you focused on either from a portfolio or a strategic perspective in terms of the assets you acquired?

實際上是尼克·約瑟夫和克雷格。回到您之前對黑石投資組合交易發表的評論，您說您已經與賣方合作，研究了對雙方都有利的方案。顯然，他們擁有很多，有很多可供選擇。那麼，就您所收購的資產而言，從投資組合或戰略角度來看，您關注的重點是什麼？

Well, the markets that we like in the long term, and I can tell you that during the course of those -- that analysis and that thinking what the market rent is going to do in the next 6 months to the last decimal point was not a consideration.

好吧，從長遠來看，我們喜歡的市場，我可以告訴你，在這些過程中，那種分析和思考未來 6 個月市場租金將如何變化（精確到最後一個小數點）並不是一個考慮因素。

I mean, -- it's -- those are markets that we really believe based on daily interactions with customers as to where demand is going to be where we see that trend in supply, which are, by the way, let's -- we haven't talked about that in a couple of quarters, but supply is becoming extremely difficult to bring online in places like California.

我的意思是，根據與客戶的日常互動，我們確實相信這些市場的需求將在我們看到供應趨勢的地方，順便說一句，我們還沒有看到這些市場。幾個季度後我們就談到了這一點，但在加州等地，供應變得極其困難。

In fact, I'm kind of worried about it, because some of these places are shutting down. I mean we spent a lot of time with the legislature trying to defeat AB1000 which was a proposal to basically stop all warehouse development in Southern California. So in selecting those assets, we focused on the markets that we liked a lot. And we were prepared to pay -- accept a lower yield for those markets because they have more embedded growth.

事實上，我有點擔心，因為其中一些地方正在關閉。我的意思是，我們花了很多時間與立法機關協商，試圖擊敗 AB1000，該提案旨在基本上停止南加州所有倉庫的開發。因此，在選擇這些資產時，我們專注於我們非常喜歡的市場。我們準備支付——接受這些市場較低的收益率，因為它們有更多的內在增長。

Our next question comes from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

So I want to get your thoughts on just the different regions coming out of what should be a recession if we get a recession. There's a lot of talk about European wages really lagging the U.S. Obviously, that's a big driver of retail spending in your business. Can you just talk about what might be different as you think about putting capital to work across Europe, Asia and the U.S. or North America given what some of these macro trends we're seeing?

因此，我想了解一下您對如果我們陷入衰退的話，不同地區擺脫衰退的看法。有很多關於歐洲工資確實落後於美國的討論。顯然，這是您企業零售支出的一大推動力。鑑於我們所看到的一些宏觀趨勢，您能否談談當您考慮在歐洲、亞洲和美國或北美投入資本時可能會有什麼不同？

Yes. U.S. has got the highest rent growth over time of any of these markets, because it's a more dynamic economy, bigger GDP growth. I think -- than Europe, certainly. But Europe has always been a sort of more muted market in terms of supply.

是的。隨著時間的推移，美國的租金增長率是所有這些市場中最高的，因為它是一個更有活力的經濟體，GDP 增長率更高。我認為——當然比歐洲。但就供應而言，歐洲一直是一個較為平靜的市場。

Vacancy rates are always lower in Europe and land is metered out by usually government authorities. It's not so much of a free market you go buy from the farmer land. So it's a more muted growth pattern than the U.S. one.

歐洲的空置率總是較低，土地通常由政府當局計量。這並不是一個你可以從農民土地上購買的自由市場。因此，這是一種比美國更為溫和的增長模式。

But we mitigate that because we employ more of a fund structure in Europe. So the combination of the earnings on the fund management business, plus the growth in the underlying real estate business makes up for the -- makes up for that difference.

但我們減輕了這一點，因為我們在歐洲採用了更多的基金結構。因此，基金管理業務的盈利加上基礎房地產業務的增長彌補了這一差異。

Asia, China used to be a powerhouse in terms of economic growth. It, frankly, has surprised everybody coming out of it with respect to how slow it's been to turn around. I'm not smart enough to know whether that's a long-term trend or a short-term trend, but that market has gone from basically 10% per year type of GDP growth to more like a 5% rate of growth.

亞洲，中國曾經是經濟增長的強國。坦率地說，它的扭轉速度之慢讓每個走出去的人都感到驚訝。我不夠聰明，不知道這是長期趨勢還是短期趨勢，但這個市場已經從基本上每年 10% 的 GDP 增長率變成了更像 5% 的增長率。

Japan, probably the best long-term market for us from a development point of view has always had low rent growth, 1% to 2% rent growth would be great. But boy, there is no CapEx, there's no turnover. There is -- and yields have maintained themselves in Japan better than anywhere else. There's been no cap rate expansion in Japan at all. And remember, there's hardly any mark-to-market.

從發展的角度來看，日本可能是我們最好的長期市場，租金增長一直很低，1% 到 2% 的租金增長就很好了。但是天哪，沒有資本支出，沒有營業額。確實如此，而且日本的收益率比其他任何地方都保持得更好。日本根本沒有提高上限利率。請記住，幾乎沒有按市價計價。

So there is no cap rate expansion. And in fact, I would say there's probably 10 to 15 basis points of compression in the last 12 months. So it's a good development market. And from an operating point of view, we talk cap rates. But at the end of the day, the cash flows in Japan are very strong because very little of it leaks out to CapEx and other things.

因此，上限利率沒有擴大。事實上，我想說過去 12 個月可能有 10 到 15 個基點的壓縮。所以這是一個很好的開發市場。從運營角度來看，我們談論資本化率。但歸根結底，日本的現金流非常強勁，因為很少有現金流入資本支出和其他方面。

So each market is different and each market, when you look at it as a portfolio plays its role within our overall business.

因此，每個市場都是不同的，當你將其視為一個投資組合時，每個市場都在我們的整體業務中發揮著自己的作用。

And our final question for today comes from Camille Bonnel with Bank of America.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的卡米爾·博內爾 (Camille Bonnel)。

Does the valuation of your USLF fund take into account the recent portfolio acquisition you announced? Or is that more of a comp for next quarter?

您的 USLF 基金的估值是否考慮了您最近宣布的投資組合收購？或者這更像是下個季度的補償？

Good question, Camille. I don't know. We bought that portfolio on balance sheet. So it's not a fund investment. So -- but I honestly don't know how long it's going to take the appraisers to reflect that.

好問題，卡米爾。我不知道。我們在資產負債表上購買了該投資組合。所以這不是基金投資。所以——但老實說，我不知道評估師需要多長時間才能反映這一點。

But it's -- we bought it at a very consistent level of valuation to what we thought valuations would be this quarter. And I think we're right about that. So I think the market has adjusted in terms of understanding where values are going. I think we're at the tail end of those adjustments.

但我們以與我們認為本季度估值非常一致的估值水平購買了它。我認為我們是對的。所以我認為市場在理解價值走向方面已經進行了調整。我認為我們正處於這些調整的尾聲。

You were the last question, Camille. So thank you all for your interest in the company. We certainly feel very good about our business going forward and hope that we'll have the opportunity to speak to you more over the summer. Thank you, everyone.

你是最後一個問題，卡米爾。感謝大家對公司的關注。我們當然對我們未來的業務感到非常滿意，並希望我們有機會在夏天有機會與您進行更多交談。謝謝大家。

Thank you. And that concludes today's conference. All parties may disconnect. Have a good day.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。所有各方都可以斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。