Prologis Inc (PLD) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Prologis Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce to you, Jill Sawyer, SVP with Investor Relations. Thank you, Jill. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加安博 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹投資者關係高級副總裁吉爾·索耶 (Jill Sawyer)。謝謝你，吉爾。你可以開始了。

Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. The supplemental document is available on our website at prologis.com under Investor Relations. I'd like to state that this conference call will contain forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the market and the industry in which Prologis operates as well as management's beliefs and assumptions.

謝謝，約翰。大家，早安。歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。補充文件可在我們的網站 prologis.com 的「投資者關係」下取得。我想聲明的是，本次電話會議將包含聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於對普洛斯經營所在市場和行業的當前預期、估計和預測以及管理層的信念和假設。

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. Actual operating results may be affected by a variety of factors. For a list of those factors, please refer to the forward-looking statement notice in our 10-K or other SEC filings. Additionally, our fourth quarter earnings press release and supplemental do contain financial measures such as FFO and EBITDA that are non-GAAP and in accordance with Reg G, we have provided a reconciliation to those measures.

前瞻性陳述並不保證業績。實際經營結果可能會受到多種因素的影響。有關這些因素的列表，請參閱我們的 10-K 或其他 SEC 文件中的前瞻性聲明通知。此外，我們的第四季度收益新聞稿和補充資料確實包含非 GAAP 的 FFO 和 EBITDA 等財務指標，並且根據 Reg G，我們對這些指標進行了調整。

I'd like to welcome Tim Arndt, our CFO, who will cover results, real-time market conditions and guidance. Hamid Moghadam, our CEO and our entire executive team are also with us today. With that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

我要歡迎我們的財務長 Tim Arndt，他將介紹業績、即時市場狀況和指導。我們的執行長 Hamid Moghadam 和整個執行團隊今天也與我們在一起。這樣，我就把電話轉給提姆。

Thanks, Jill.

謝謝，吉爾。

I'd like to start our call by recognizing and thanking our team for the incredible effort given over 2023. While it was a turbulent year in many ways, we ended it by delivering nearly 11% earnings growth and driving our 12-year earnings CAGR since merger to 10.3%. We deployed over $7 billion into new investments, raised nearly $2 billion of strategic capital in very challenging environment and delivered excellent operating results while serving and growing customer relationships.

在我們的電話會議開始時，我想對我們的團隊在2023 年做出的令人難以置信的努力表示認可和感謝。雖然從很多方面來說，這是動蕩的一年，但我們最終實現了近11% 的獲利成長，並推動了12 年獲利複合年增長率自合併以來已增至 10.3%。我們部署了超過 70 億美元進行新投資，在極具挑戰性的環境中籌集了近 20 億美元的策略資本，並在服務和發展客戶關係的同時取得了出色的營運績效。

We're also appreciative of the opportunity we had at our Investor Forum last month to share our vision and outlook for the company over the coming years. The environment is setting up in line or better than our expectations with development starts across the market continuing to decline by 2/3 from peak and an improvement in customer sentiment that appears more constructive than just 90 days ago.

我們也很高興有機會在上個月的投資者論壇上分享我們對公司未來幾年的願景和展望。目前的環境符合或優於我們的預期，整個市場的開發開工量持續從高峰下降 2/3，而客戶情緒的改善似乎比 90 天前更具建設性。

That said, we still see challenges in some submarkets as near-term outsized deliveries are met with still recovering demand. But our thesis remains the same as we've been describing for over a year and detailed last month in New York, which is that the supply cliff will converge with normalized demand later this year, delivering an environment conducive to strong market rent growth. We believe that annual market rent growth will average between 4% and 6% over the next 3 years, with 2024 being modestly positive and ramping thereafter.

儘管如此，我們仍然看到一些子市場面臨挑戰，因為近期的超額交付滿足了仍在復甦的需求。但我們的論點仍然與我們一年多以來所描述的以及上個月在紐約詳細闡述的一樣，即供應懸崖將在今年晚些時候與正常化的需求趨同，從而創造一個有利於市場租金強勁增長的環境。我們認為，未來 3 年市場租金年平均成長率將在 4% 至 6% 之間，2024 年將適度成長，此後將持續加速。

Turning to our results. We finished the year strong with quarterly core FFO, excluding promotes, of $1.29 per share, bringing the full year to the top end of our guidance of $5.10 per share. While market occupancy declined by approximately 100 basis points, our portfolio gained 10 basis points to end the year at 97.6%. Net effective rent change over the quarter was 74%, bringing the full year to a record of 77%, with another impressive results out of Southern California at over 150% a reminder that it remains the strongest market for cash flow growth despite near-term choppiness given the large quantum of this lease mark-to-market.

轉向我們的結果。我們以每股 1.29 美元的季度核心 FFO（不包括促銷）強勁結束了這一年，使全年達到了每股 5.10 美元指導的上限。儘管市佔率下降了約 100 個基點，但我們的投資組合卻上漲了 10 個基點，年底達到 97.6%。本季淨有效租金變動為74%，使全年租金變動達到77% 的歷史新高，南加州的另一個令人印象深刻的業績超過150%，提醒人們，儘管近期，它仍然是現金流成長最強勁的市場鑑於該租賃按市價計算的金額較大，因此出現波動。

In the end, same-store on a net effective basis was 7.8%, while cash was 8.5%. We started over $2 billion of new developments in the quarter across 46 projects in 27 markets with nearly 50% of the activity in build-to-suits. In energy, and as seen in our new supplement disclosure, we stand at year-end with approximately 515 megawatts of solar and storage in operation with an additional 70 currently under construction. We had a quiet quarter on the financing front, raising approximately $300 million, but our full year of activity closed out at over $12 billion at a weighted average rate of 4.5% in term of 10 years. Our total debt portfolio remains at an overall in-place rate of just 3% with more than 9 years of average remaining life.

最終，同店淨有效率為 7.8%，現金率為 8.5%。本季度，我們在 27 個市場的 46 個項目中啟動了價值超過 20 億美元的新開發項目，其中近 50% 的活動為客製化項目。在能源方面，正如我們在新的補充披露中所看到的，截至年底，我們約有 515 兆瓦的太陽能和儲存設施正在運行，另外 70 兆瓦目前正在建設中。我們在融資方面經歷了一個安靜的季度，籌集了大約 3 億美元，但我們全年的活動最終超過 120 億美元，以 10 年加權平均利率 4.5% 計算。我們的總負債組合整體到位率仍僅 3%，平均剩餘壽命超過 9 年。

Turning to market conditions. The increase in fourth quarter market vacancy was in line with our expectations and driven by demand that remain moderate as customers exercise caution in their spending, while completions hit an all-time high. Development starts, however, have continued to fall across the U.S. and Europe, extending and deepening the future supply shortfall. On the ground, our teams are seeing revised customer interest with healthy showing activity to start the year. This includes build-to-suit inquiries, which we expect to remain active for Prologis following a strong year in 2023.

轉向市場狀況。第四季市場空置率的成長符合我們的預期，並受到需求保持溫和的推動，因為客戶對支出持謹慎態度，而竣工量創歷史新高。然而，美國和歐洲的開發開工量持續下降，擴大並加劇了未來的供應短缺。在實地，我們的團隊看到客戶的興趣改變，新年伊始，展示活動也健康發展。這包括量身定制的詢價，我們預計在 2023 年表現強勁之後，普洛斯的詢價將繼續活躍。

Our proprietary metrics point to normal levels of activity with proposals and gestation timing in line or a bit better than historical norms. Utilization declined in the quarter to approximately 83% in keeping with this morning's reported decrease in the inventory to sales ratio. We view this positively because utilization ought to increase from here as stronger-than-expected retail sales over the fourth quarter and holiday season drove lower inventories, which will need to be replenished.

我們的專有指標顯示活動的正常水平，建議和懷孕時間符合或略好於歷史標準。該季度的利用率下降至約 83%，與今天上午報告的庫存與銷售比率的下降一致。我們對此持正面態度，因為第四季和假日季節強於預期的零售銷售導致庫存下降，因此利用率應該會從現在開始增加，而庫存需要補充。

Turning to market rents. Our global view is that rents declined this quarter by 90 basis points, but predominantly impacted by an estimated 7% decline in Southern California. Our full year view is that global market rents grew by 6%, just below our expectations, ultimately driving our lease mark-to-market to end the quarter at 57% after capturing approximately $100 million in realized NOI growth from leases rolling up to market. The outlier on rent growth is clearly Southern California. While our portfolio was only 2.6% vacant at year-end, growing availability has made leasing very competitive.

轉向市場租金。我們的全球觀點是，本季租金下降了 90 個基點，但主要受到南加州預計下降 7% 的影響。我們全年的觀點是，全球市場租金成長6%，略低於我們的預期，最終推動我們的租賃市值在本季結束時達到57%，因為租賃推向市場帶來的已實現NOI 成長約為1 億美元。租金增長的異常值顯然是南加州。雖然我們的投資組合到年底只有 2.6% 的空置率，但不斷增加的供應量使得租賃極具競爭力。

Combined with a 110% increase in rent since 2020, the rent retracement is understandable. Historically, there has never been a market where the delta between expiring and market rents has been so large that it provides ample room for property owners to deviate for market in order to attract customers.

結合2020年以來租金上漲110%，租金回撤也是可以理解的。從歷史上看，從來沒有一個市場的到期租金和市場租金之間的差異如此之大，以至於為業主提供了足夠的空間來偏離市場以吸引客戶。

So looking ahead, the positive news is that we are watching 2 trends reverse. The first is that the supply pipeline is clearly emptying with little in the way of new starts. And the second is that the escalating issues in both the Suez and Panama Canals together with the resolution of the West Coast labor negotiations are moving shipment volumes back to the West.

因此，展望未來，正面的消息是我們正在觀察兩種趨勢的逆轉。首先，供應管道顯然正在清空，幾乎沒有新的啟動。其次，蘇伊士運河和巴拿馬運河問題不斷升級，加上西海岸勞工談判的解決，正在將貨運量轉移回西方。

While this bodes well for SoCal and still early, we are watching East Coast port markets more closely. In any event, all of these disruptions are reiterating the underlying need for resiliency and the just-in-case approach to inventories. Summing this all up globally, we recognize the high volume of near-term deliveries that need to be absorbed into our markets over the next few quarters, but we are very pleased with our ability thus far to build occupancy, drive rents and illustrate more differentiation in our portfolio as market vacancy grows.

雖然這對南加州來說是個好兆頭，而且還為時過早，但我們正在更密切地關注東海岸港口市場。無論如何，所有這些中斷都重申了對彈性和以防萬一庫存方法的潛在需求。總結全球範圍內的情況，我們認識到未來幾個季度需要吸收大量近期交付量，但我們對迄今為止建立入住率、推動租金和體現更多差異化的能力感到非常滿意隨著市場空缺的增加，在我們的投資組合中。

As for strategic capital and valuations, we saw U.S. values decline approximately 5.5% during the quarter, which was our expectation and the reason we paused our appraisal-based activity which includes calling and redeeming capital as well as asset contributions. We run an industry-leading franchise in which we aim to set the standard for governance, including timely, accurate and independent valuations. Calling out when pronounced the lags and valuations emerge has protected investors and demonstrated how we stand apart as a responsible partner.

至於策略資本和估值，我們看到美國價值在本季度下降了約 5.5%，這是我們的預期，也是我們暫停基於評估的活動（包括調用和贖回資本以及資產貢獻）的原因。我們經營著業界領先的特許經營權，旨在製定治理標準，包括及時、準確和獨立的估值。當明顯的滯後和估值出現時大聲疾呼，保護了投資者，並展示了我們如何作為負責任的合作夥伴脫穎而出。

With this quarter's value declines in a more stabilized rate environment, will resume activity in USLF, including the funding of our $250 million commitment announced in the second half of '23.

隨著本季價值在更穩定的利率環境下下降，USLF 將恢復活動，包括為我們在 23 年下半年宣布的 2.5 億美元承諾提供資金。

Turning to guidance in all of our share, in terms of operating metrics, we are guiding average occupancy to range between 96.5% and 97.5%, with occupancy likely to step down in the first quarter and rebuild over the course of the year. Cash same-store will range between 8% and 9% and net effective same-store growth will range from 7% to 8%. We're forecasting net G&A to range between $420 million and $440 million and strategic capital income to range from $530 million to $550 million. We have a very big year of stabilization activity ahead of us with a range of $3.6 billion to $4 billion and expected yields f approximately 6.25%.

就我們所有份額的指導而言，就營運指標而言，我們將平均入住率指導在 96.5% 至 97.5% 之間，入住率可能會在第一季下降，並在今年內重建。現金同店成長率將在 8% 至 9% 之間，同店淨有效成長將在 7% 至 8% 之間。我們預計淨管理費用將在 4.2 億美元至 4.4 億美元之間，戰略資本收入將在 5.3 億美元至 5.5 億美元之間。我們將迎來非常重要的一年，穩定活動規模將達到 36 億至 40 億美元，預期殖利率約 6.25%。

On the new deployment front, we are guiding development starts to range between $3 billion and $3.5 billion with estimated build-to-suit mix of 40% and we plan to take sales portfolios to the market over the year with expected proceeds to range between $800 million and $1.2 billion and additionally, forecast $1.75 billion to $2.25 billion in contributions to our strategic capital vehicles.

在新的部署方面，我們指導開發起始金額在 30 億至 35 億美元之間，預計客製化組合佔 40%，我們計劃在一年內將銷售組合推向市場，預計收益在 800 美元之間12 億美元和12 億美元，此外，預計將向我們的戰略資本工具捐款17.5 億美元至22.5 億美元。

In the end, we are forecasting GAAP earnings to range between $3.20 and $3.45 per share, Core FFO, excluding promotes, will range from $5.50 to $5.64 per share, while core FFO, including net promote expense will range between $5.42 and $5.56 per share. Each a bit higher than our preliminary guidance at the investor forum. While we do not forecast any promote revenue at this time, there are some small opportunities that do exist in [fee] for Prologis in our new PJLF vehicle in Japan.

最終，我們預計GAAP 收益將在每股3.20 美元至3.45 美元之間，核心FFO（不包括促銷費用）將在每股5.50 美元至5.64 美元之間，而核心FFO（包括淨促銷費用）將在每股5.42 美元至5.56 美元之間。每個都高於我們在投資者論壇上的初步指導。雖然我們目前預計不會有任何促銷收入，但在日本的新 PJLF 車輛中，普洛斯確實存在一些小機會。

In closing, we know that the market is not yet out of the woods with regards to incoming supply, but the combination of a stronger backdrop continued the level of starts and a calmer capital markets environment has us optimistic that 2024 will be another great year. As you know from our Investor Day, we have many initiatives in flight designed to add value beyond our real estate and because of our real estate.

最後，我們知道市場在供應方面尚未走出困境，但開工水平持續強勁和資本市場環境更加平靜，使我們樂觀地認為 2024 年將是另一個偉大的一年。正如您從我們的投資者日了解到的，我們在飛行方面有許多舉措，旨在增加我們的房地產之外的價值，並因為我們的房地產而增加價值。

We look forward to continuing to execute on our plan and providing new updates throughout the year. And before we move to Q&A, I'd like to get ahead of questions, which have grown a little more frequent in recent quarters surrounding market rent growth. Unintentionally, we set an expectation that we could forecast market rents to a single point of accuracy in increasingly short time periods. And honestly, we're just not that good. We've gotten away from a practice that was originally aimed at being high level and directional. So what we've elected to do in order to help investors without perpetuating the issue is to simply provide high-level rent growth expectations on a rolling 12 month forward view.

我們期待繼續執行我們的計劃並在全年提供新的更新。在我們進行問答之前，我想先回答一些問題，這些問題在最近幾季中圍繞市場租金成長變得更加頻繁。無意中，我們設定了一個期望，即我們可以在越來越短的時間內將市場租金預測到單點精確度。老實說，我們只是沒那麼好。我們已經擺脫了最初旨在高水準和方向性的做法。因此，為了幫助投資者而不讓問題長期存在，我們選擇做的就是簡單地提供滾動 12 個月遠景的高水準租金成長預期。

As mentioned earlier, in terms of our 3-year CAGR of 4% to 6%, we believe we'll see modestly positive rent growth aligned with inflation over the next 12 months, and we'll continue to update this rolling view on our future calls.

如前所述，就我們4% 至6% 的3 年複合年增長率而言，我們相信未來12 個月我們將看到租金適度正增長，與通膨保持一致，我們將繼續更新這一滾動觀點未來的電話。

With that, we will now take your questions. Operator?

現在我們將回答您的問題。操作員？

We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from the line of Tom Catherwood with BTIG.

我們現在將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）第一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Tom Catherwood 線。

Excellent. Kind of maybe taking a look at your leasing spreads. Obviously, very strong performance during the quarter, but also a big spread between Prologis share and the kind of overall portfolio performance, which suggests stronger performance out of the U.S. Going forward into '24, are you expecting this gap in performance to tighten at all? Or should the U.S. continue to lead the way as far as spreads go this year?

出色的。也許可以看看你的租賃利差。顯然，本季的表現非常強勁，但 Prologis 股票與整體投資組合表現之間也存在很大差距，這表明美國的表現更強勁。展望 24 年，您是否預計這種業績差距會縮小？或者說美國今年是否應該繼續在利差方面處於領先地位？

I'll take that. I think, Tom, that it will actually be relatively similar. There's a pretty long tail on how the lease mark-to-market is going to affect quarterly rent change, it will sustain for quite a while in other words. And since it's much more pronounced in the U.S. than anywhere else in the world, I would expect we do see that continue to stay wide.

我會接受的。湯姆，我認為它實際上會相對相似。租賃按市值計價將如何影響季度租金變化有一個相當長的尾巴，換句話說，它將持續相當長一段時間。由於這種情況在美國比世界其他任何地方都更加明顯，我預計我們確實會看到這種情況繼續保持廣泛。

And the next question comes from the line of Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的羅納德‧卡姆德姆 (Ronald Kamdem)。

Just 2 quick ones for me. So one, we've been looking at a lot of the broker reports talking about rising availability rates. You guys have flagged it as well. So just curious what you guys are seeing in sort of the Sun Belt markets versus sort of the coastal and if that's trending sort of in line or with your expectation and so forth would be the first.

對我來說只有 2 個快速的。因此，我們一直在查看許多經紀人報告，談論可用率的上升。你們也標記了它。所以只是好奇你們在陽光地帶市場和沿海市場中看到了什麼，以及這種趨勢是否符合或符合您的預期等等將是第一個。

Hey, it's Chris Caton. I'll take that. So the year is -- or the year closed out with market vacancy rates mid-5%, just like Tim described. And the vacancy rates remain lower on the coast -- excuse me, so both East Coast and West Coast and higher in the Sunbelt. What we are seeing as it relates to pricing is there was better pricing, better rent growth in the Sunbelt markets outperforming the coast in 2023.

嘿，我是克里斯卡頓。我會接受的。所以今年——或者說今年結束時，市場空置率達到 5% 左右，就像蒂姆所描述的那樣。沿海地區的空置率仍然較低——對不起，東海岸和西海岸的空置率都較低，而陽光地帶的空置率則更高。我們看到，與定價相關的是，到 2023 年，陽光地帶市場的定價和租金成長將優於沿海地區。

Great. And if I could just follow-up on the market rent growth comment. I think you said rolling 12 months sort of inflationary plus or minus. So clearly, that's implying sort of an acceleration in '25 and '26 as supply comes down. Is that sort of how you guys are thinking about it?

偉大的。如果我能跟進市場租金成長評論的話。我想你說的是滾動 12 個月的通膨正負。很明顯，這意味著隨著供應量的下降，25 年和 26 年會加速。你們也是這麼想的嗎？

That's exactly right.

完全正確。

And the next question comes from the line of Craig Mailman with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的克雷格‧梅爾曼 (Craig Mailman)。

Great. Two quick ones here. I guess first question would be, could you guys just go through what the uptick in property improvements in the CapEx section were there's a pretty big jump in 4Q versus prior quarters. And then just second, Tim, you had kind of touched on this that tenant sentiment is improving here and there may be better traffic going back to the West Coast with everything going in the Red Sea and the realization that just in case maybe a more prudent inventory method. But I'm just kind of curious because big tenant leasing has been kind of slower over the last 12 to 18 months. Are you seeing any early green shoots on that improving as you guys are talking with customers?

偉大的。這裡有兩個快速的。我想第一個問題是，如果第四季與前幾季相比有相當大的跳躍，你們能否簡單了解一下資本支出部分的財產改善的上升情況。其次，蒂姆，您提到了這裡的租戶情緒正在改善，隨著紅海的一切進展，返回西海岸的交通可能會更好，並意識到以防萬一，可能會更加謹慎庫存方法。但我只是有點好奇，因為在過去 12 到 18 個月裡，大租戶的租賃速度有所放緩。當你們與客戶交談時，你們是否看到了這種改善的早期萌芽？

Yes, I'll take the first part here, Craig, on the CapEx. If you take a look at the supplemental, I'd first start by widening out on overall CapEx before staring at property improvements. And there's just a good example here of the need to look at annual or trailing numbers as this can be a pretty volatile number quarterly. Here, you can see on the full year as a percentage of our NOI, we are about 14%, roughly 15% the prior year.

是的，克雷格，我將在這裡討論第一部分的資本支出。如果你看一下補充資料，我會先擴大整體資本支出，然後再關注財產改善。這裡有一個很好的例子，說明需要查看年度或追蹤數據，因為這可能是一個相當不穩定的季度數據。在這裡，您可以看到全年占我們 NOI 的百分比，我們約為 14%，去年約為 15%。

And yes, focusing in on property improvements, I'd suggest the same that you have to look at a trailing basis. We do tend to see higher levels of property improvement activity in the fourth quarter just by nature, but we're catching up on the full year. You can see we averaged $0.12 on the year versus the $0.21 that we had in the quarter. So that's really just a timing issue. One more thing that you can see here is the year-over-year average on that basis $0.12 versus the prior year 10. And I'd explain that differential as just some inflationary piece and then the second would be some deferred maintenance and work that we're executing on the Duke portfolio.

是的，專注於財產改善，我建議您必須查看追蹤基礎。我們確實傾向於在第四季度看到更高水準的房地產改善活動，但我們正在趕上全年。您可以看到，我們今年的平均收入為 0.12 美元，而本季的平均收入為 0.21 美元。所以這其實只是一個時間問題。您還可以在這裡看到的另一件事是，與前一年相比，同比平均為0.12 美元。我將這種差異解釋為只是一些通貨膨脹因素，然後第二個因素是一些延期的維護和工作，我們正在執行杜克大學的投資組合。

And maybe this is Dan, Craig. On that second part of your question related to tenant sentiment, I would say, at the Investor Day, we had talked about a marginally better tenant sentiment from the Q3 earnings call. And I would say it's even marginally better than that in the last 30 days. This is fueled by our healthy proposal volumes, customer dialogues have been strong, 45% of our available space is in discussion right now with active proposals.

也許這就是丹，克雷格。關於您問題中與租戶情緒相關的第二部分，我想說，在投資者日，我們討論了第三季財報電話會議中租戶情緒略有好轉的情況。我想說，它甚至比過去 30 天的情況還要好一些。這是由我們健康的提案量推動的，客戶對話一直很活躍，我們 45% 的可用空間目前正在與積極的提案進行討論。

We've anecdotally had just a number of conversations with our customer-led solutions group. Our build-to-suit conversations are improving as well. Our overall build-to-suit pipeline has grown quarter-over-quarter. So whether that be some of the issues related to the Red Sea issues and the canal issues or not. I think Chris will have some comments on that.

據傳聞，我們僅與客戶主導的解決方案團隊進行了多次對話。我們的客製化對話也在不斷改善。我們的整體客製化產品線逐季成長。那麼這是否是與紅海問題和運河問題相關的一些問題。我想克里斯會對此發表一些評論。

Yeah. I'll just go further, Craig, as it relates to port activity. We went out on a limb in September with a published research report calling for recovery in market share, and that is really, really playing out in the port activities. In November, West Coast ports were up 24% year-on-year. Inbound shipments are up even more, and that will translate to leasing over time.

是的。克雷格，我會更進一步，因為這與港口活動有關。九月份，我們冒險發表了一份研究報告，呼籲恢復市場份額，而這確實在港口活動中得到了體現。 11月，西海岸港口年增24%。入境貨運量增長更多，隨著時間的推移，這將轉化為租賃。

And the next question comes from the line of Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的凱特琳·伯羅斯 (Caitlin Burrows)。

Tim, earlier, you mentioned how development starts are down, maybe 2/3 from the peak and that you're seeing little in terms of new starts broadly. When we look at your own build-to-suit split of development, it is up year-over-year and then that earlier question just on customer sentiment. So I guess, combining all of those pieces, how do you think that impacts your decision to do spec development versus build-to-suit over the course of this year?

提姆，早些時候，您提到開發開工率如何下降，可能比高峰下降了 2/3，並且您幾乎沒有看到新的開工率。當我們查看您自己的客製化開發劃分時，它逐年上升，然後是之前關於客戶情緒的問題。所以我想，結合所有這些部分，您認為這會如何影響您今年進行規格開發與客製化建造的決定？

Caitlin, this is Dan. I'll respond here. A few thoughts for you. First of all, we started just over $1 billion worth of spec in the fourth quarter. So we had talked over the last several quarters about the declining starts in the marketplace, and that's when we wanted to come out of the gate here with some starts, and that's what you're seeing us do right now. We have a pretty healthy guidance here for 2024 starts at owned and managed of about $4 billion.

凱特琳，這是丹。我就在這裡回覆一下吧。給你一些想法。首先，我們在第四季度啟動了價值超過 10 億美元的規格。因此，在過去的幾個季度中，我們一直在討論市場開工率下降的問題，而那時我們希望以一些開工率走出這裡，這就是您現在看到的我們所做的。我們對 2024 年擁有和管理的資產的開工規模給出了相當健康的預測，約 40 億美元。

And if you think about it, that's 25 million square feet or so of starts that we could be doing this year. And we have a development portfolio right now of about 50 million square feet. So we've got an appetite for spec. Our build-to-suit volume, we think, is going to shake out in that 40% range as we've projected. And then keep in mind, we talked about this plenty at the Investor Day. We have $40 billion worth of opportunities in our land bank and we have the ability to make decisions on a quarterly basis, where we're going to build. We own this land in [50] markets around the globe, 300 different sites. So plenty of opportunities there.

如果你仔細想想，我們今年可以開工面積約 2500 萬平方英尺。我們目前擁有約 5000 萬平方英尺的開發組合。所以我們對規格有興趣。我們認為，我們的客製化量將在我們預計的 40% 範圍內波動。請記住，我們在投資者日討論了很多這一點。我們的土地儲備中有價值 400 億美元的機會，我們有能力每季就我們要在哪裡建造項目做出決定。我們在全球 [50] 個市場、300 個不同地點擁有這塊土地。那裡有很多機會。

And the next question comes from the line of Ki Bin Kim with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Ki Bin Kim。

I just wanted to touch on the development start guidance of $3 billion plus this year. Can you just help us break that down versus -- and so traditional industrial versus like data centers or other property types? And does the pre-lease percentage that you're expecting differ a whole lot? And sorry, to add a third year. Typically, how long will the data center development is paid to cash flow?

我只想談談今年 30 億美元以上的開發啟動指引。您能否幫助我們將其與傳統工業與資料中心或其他財產類型進行比較？您預期的預租百分比是否有很大差異？抱歉，新增第三年。通常情況下，資料中心開發需要多長時間才能支付現金流？

Sure, Ki Bin, this is Dan. I'll hit that. First of all, we gave some guidance on our data center business 30 days ago at Investor Day. We talked about over the next 5 years, 20-or-so opportunities, 3 gigawatts of data centers, $7 billion to $8 billion worth of investment. Those numbers have not changed. As a matter of fact, one thing we couldn't disclose at Investor Day was we started over $500 million worth of data centers in the fourth quarter alone.

當然，基賓，這是丹。我會擊中那個。首先，我們在30天前的投資者日上對我們的資料中心業務進行了一些指導。我們討論了未來 5 年約 20 個機會、3 吉瓦的資料中心、價值 70 億至 80 億美元的投資。這些數字沒有改變。事實上，我們在投資者日無法透露的一件事是，光是第四季度我們就啟動了價值超過 5 億美元的資料中心。

You won't see us guide to data centers. These are very lumpy deals. And if you think about our data center opportunities, we own over 5,500 buildings. We own or control over 12,000 acres globally. So we have one of the most important components of data centers. We control the land, right? We talked about power applications at Investor Day. We talked about a number below 50. That number is now approaching 60. Our team is very active growing that data center pipeline.

您不會看到我們的資料中心指南。這些都是非常不穩定的交易。如果您考慮我們的資料中心機會，我們擁有 5,500 多棟建築。我們在全球擁有或控制超過 12,000 英畝的土地。因此，我們擁有資料中心最重要的組成部分之一。我們控制著土地，對嗎？我們在投資者日討論了電力應用。我們討論過低於 50 的數字。該數字現在接近 60。我們的團隊非常積極地發展資料中心管道。

Then the third component of it would be customers, and we're talking to the big hyperscalers on a regular basis. And we think it's prudent for us to be careful on how we project out what our data center volume will be because there's a competitive nature to this as well. We're negotiating with these customers, and we think it's important for us we will absolutely share with you, when these projects are on the horizon. But right now, our start volume is largely industrial. And then keep in mind, our data center business is a part of our long higher and better use business. We're going to build. We're going to merchant build these, and we're going to recycle that capital into the business we love so much, which is logistics.

第三個組成部分是客戶，我們正在定期與大型超大規模企業進行交談。我們認為謹慎對待我們的資料中心容量將是謹慎的，因為這也具有競爭性。我們正在與這些客戶進行談判，我們認為這對我們很重要，當這些項目即將推出時，我們絕對會與您分享。但目前，我們的啟動量主要是工業量。然後請記住，我們的資料中心業務是我們長期更高、更好使用業務的一部分。我們要建造。我們將商業化地建造這些，並將這些資本回收到我們非常喜愛的業務中，即物流。

Yes. To your question about how long it will take them to cash flow, if there's a wider range than traditional industrial. But I would say on kind of powered shelves, it's more in the 12- to 15-month range from start and on turnkey depending on who does it and whether the customer does it or we do it, it could be a longer than that by about a year because since the installations are pretty complicated to get these going. But all of that is built into the budget and the economics of the transaction.

是的。對於你的問題，如果現金流範圍比傳統工業更廣泛，他們需要多長時間才能實現現金流。但我想說的是，對於電動貨架，從開始到交鑰匙的時間更多是 12 到 15 個月，具體取決於誰做，以及是客戶做還是我們做，可能會比這更長大約一年，因為安裝非常複雜。但所有這些都已納入預算和交易的經濟性中。

And this point that then made on the negotiating posture is really important. I mean the last thing we want to do, there are 4 or 5 customers out there, and it's pretty obvious given the scale of the numbers, they can figure out, which project is in our guidance for the next quarter, if we wanted to go in that direction, and that basically reduces our leverage. So we're just not going to do that.

然後關於談判姿態的這一點非常重要。我的意思是我們最不想做的事情是，有4 或5 個客戶，考慮到數字的規模，這是非常明顯的，他們可以弄清楚，哪個項目在我們下一季的指導中，如果我們想的話朝這個方向走，基本上就會降低我們的影響力。所以我們不會那樣做。

And the next question comes from the line of Jay Poskitt with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Jay Poskitt 與 Evercore ISI 的對話。

I was wondering, if you could just provide a little bit of commentary on the supply and demand trends over the next couple of quarters? You've previously said that you think deliveries will outpace demand for over the next couple of quarters and then the inverse will happen after that. So just any update on that would be great.

我想知道您能否對未來幾季的供需趨勢提供一些評論？您之前曾說過，您認為未來幾季的交付量將超過需求量，之後就會出現相反的情況。所以只要有任何更新就太好了。

Jay, it's Chris Caton. So we project 250 million square feet of net absorption in the calendar year and 285 million square feet of completions. And yes, that's going to be front-end loaded, particularly on the supply side. And so we think you'll see the vacancy rate rise by another 50 to 75 basis points here in the first half of the year, peaking at 6%, maybe 6.1% and then making a meaningful move through the subsequent rest of the year and into 2025 and 2026 based on the trend in starts that we've profiled for you.

傑伊，我是克里斯卡頓。因此，我們預計全年淨吸收量為 2.5 億平方英尺，竣工面積為 2.85 億平方英尺。是的，這將是前端加載的，特別是在供應方面。因此，我們認為今年上半年空置率將再上升 50 至 75 個基點，達到 6% 的峰值，也許是 6.1%，然後在今年剩餘時間裡採取有意義的舉措，根據我們為您分析的開工趨勢，進入2025 年和2026 年。

Let me just punctuate that. Vacancy rates will go up through the second quarter. So don't be surprised by that. But we're pretty confident they'll come back down after that.

讓我強調一下。第二季空置率將上升。所以不要對此感到驚訝。但我們非常有信心他們在那之後會回來。

And the next question comes from the line of Nicholas Yulico with Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的尼古拉斯‧尤利科 (Nicholas Yulico)。

I just wanted to go back to the space utilization comment you made, Tim, about feeling that at this point, retailers likely have to restock inventories is actually good sign, where of space utilization is. I guess I'm wondering if you could give us some -- remind us sort of seasonally how this may play out historically in terms of leasing demand picking up from 3PL or retailers because of that issue of restocking? And then as well in terms of the lease proposals picking up in the fourth quarter, if you had any benefit already from that industry or even anecdotally, you could talk a little bit about the discussions there.

提姆，我只想回到你對空間利用率的評論，感覺在這一點上，零售商可能必須補充庫存實際上是一個好兆頭，空間利用率在哪裡。我想我想知道您是否可以給我們一些資訊——提醒我們，從歷史上看，由於補貨問題，3PL 或零售商的租賃需求回升可能會如何發揮作用？然後，就第四季度的租賃提案而言，如果您已經從該行業甚至是軼事中獲得了任何好處，您可以談論那裡的討論。

Yes. So the easy way of thinking about this is basically absorption and demand for our product follows 1, 2, 3, 4 scenario as you move through the quarters. It's back-end loaded towards the fourth quarter. And that's historically been the relationship. Because so much of the activity occurs in the fourth quarter and so much of that activity would have been based on anticipation earlier in terms of the Christmas season, so much of the sales are in the Christmas season.

是的。因此，思考這個問題的簡單方法基本上是，隨著季度的推移，我們產品的吸收和需求遵循 1、2、3、4 情境。到第四季時後端已載入完畢。從歷史上看，這就是這種關係。由於大部分活動發生在第四季度，而且大部分活動都是基於聖誕節期間的早期預期，因此大部分銷售都發生在聖誕節期間。

The volatility is the most in the fourth quarter. This year, retail sales and in particular, e-com sales were better than people's expectations and the retailers were caught short in '21. They were a little overstocked in '22. And now they were back to being very careful with inventories. So they got caught short of inventories again. That's why utilization is done. They're schizophrenic. They always have too much or too little. You can never get it right. And the good news is that this Christmas season was stronger than everybody anticipated. It's going to take for that to work its way back to normal.

波動最大的是第四季。今年，零售額尤其是電子商務銷售額好於人們的預期，零售商在21年陷入困境。 22 年他們的庫存有點過剩。現在他們又開始對庫存非常小心了。於是他們又陷入了庫存短缺的困境。這就是利用的原因。他們是精神分裂症患者。他們總是擁有太多或太少。你永遠不可能把事情做好。好消息是，今年的聖誕節比所有人預期的都要強勁。這需要一段時間才能恢復正常。

And the next question comes from the line of Blaine Heck with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自布萊恩赫克 (Blaine Heck) 與富國銀行 (Wells Fargo) 的對話。

Can you just talk broadly about valuation and cap rates? And given the continued movement in the 10-year, I guess, do you think that pricing is adjusted correctly? Or could we see continued volatility in the near term -- I guess that potential volatility present you with any investment opportunities?

您能大致談談估價和資本化率嗎？考慮到 10 年來的持續變動，我想，您認為定價調整正確嗎？或者我們會在短期內看到持續的波動——我想潛在的波動會為你帶來任何投資機會？

Yes. We don't think the real pricing and real returns have really changed because return expectations should have been higher 6 months ago because of higher treasury rates. But nobody was trading based on those higher return requirements. So nothing really happened. So it was a theoretical decline in values.

是的。我們認為實際定價和實際回報並沒有真正改變，因為由於國債利率上升，6 個月前的回報預期應該更高。但沒有人根據這些更高的回報要求進行交易。所以什麼事也沒發生。所以這是理論上的價值下降。

I think with the treasuries now having come down, I know they've gone up a little bit just most recently, but net-net, they're down. I think the reality is the expectations of the market participants and that theoretical pricing of assets is converging. Bottom line, we think we're seeing the near bottom of valuations, both in the U.S. and Europe. And I think with this level of stability and sort of bottom forming, you'll see more volume coming through in terms of real deals.

我認為隨著國債現在的下跌，我知道它們最近略有上升，但是淨淨的，它們正在下跌。我認為現實是市場參與者的預期和資產的理論定價正在趨同。最重要的是，我們認為美國和歐洲的估值都接近底層。我認為，隨著這種程度的穩定性和底部形成，您將看到更多的實際交易量。

And the next question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

Another supply-demand question. But just as we think about the cliff of new deliveries coming online, it sounds like that drops off in the second quarter. Is there an extended period of time, where we're going to need to lease these up. And so the inflection of when supply gets better and then combined with what you're seeing on the demand side? Does that mean -- does that happen through the third quarter and into the fourth quarter? Or is that kind of happen just as soon as the deliveries slow?

另一個供需問題。但正如我們思考新上線交付量的懸崖一樣，聽起來第二季會出現下降。我們是否需要在很長一段時間內租賃這些設備？那麼供應何時好轉以及您在需求方面看到的情況會發生什麼變化？這是否意味著——這種情況會發生在第三季和第四季嗎？還是只要交貨緩慢就會發生這種情況？

It's Chris. So I'll start off by offering. Look, the vacancy rate is going to go up to 6% -- Hamid and I are very clear, well the whole team is clear on that. Bear in mind, that's a very low level in the context of history. And so yes, it will take -- there'll be time for vacancy to decline to soak up that availability. But it's going from a low level to an even lower level. So it's a bit like they can see it's going to go from 6%, it's going to move to 5.5% and likely to 5%, given the supply cliff that we see.

是克里斯。所以我將從提供開始。看，空缺率將上升到 6%——哈米德和我都非常清楚，整個團隊都清楚這一點。請記住，這在歷史背景下是一個非常低的水平。所以，是的，空缺需要一段時間才能吸收可用的空缺。但它正在從低水平走向更低水平。因此，考慮到我們看到的供應懸崖，他們可能會看到它將從 6% 上升到 5.5%，甚至可能達到 5%。

And the next question comes from the line of Camille Bonnel with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Camille Bonnel。

Your outlook for development stabilizations is quite positive despite the supply environment remaining elevated for the first half of this year. So could you just expand on what the expected timing is around for this? And then, if you can just follow-up a little bit more on your comments around tenant inventory. What are they telling you in terms of how they plan to adapt to any persisting disruption around East coast ports?

儘管今年上半年的供應環境仍然較高，但您對發展穩定的前景相當樂觀。那麼能否詳細說明一下預計的時間安排呢？然後，您是否可以進一步跟進您對租戶庫存的評論。他們如何告訴您他們計劃如何適應東海岸港口周圍持續存在的干擾？

Camille, this is Dan. I'll start with your question on stabilization. It is a big year on stabilizations for us. We actually started the year out with some good news. Late December, we actually pulled in for stabilizations that we had expected to happen in the first quarter of 2024. But overall, the timing of those stabilizations, it spread out pretty well throughout the year. And one number I would just point to is that 2024 stabilization, volume is 46% leased already, which is actually 300, 400 basis points above the average at this point over the last several years.

卡米爾，這是丹。我將從你關於穩定性的問題開始。對我們來說，今年是穩定的重要一年。事實上，我們在新年伊始就帶來了一些好消息。 12 月末，我們實際上已經實現了預期在 2024 年第一季實現的穩定。但總體而言，這些穩定的時間在全年中分佈得相當好。我想指出的一個數字是，到 2024 年，租賃量將趨於穩定，已佔 46%，這實際上比過去幾年的平均水平高出 300、400 個基點。

Camille, it's Chris. I want to jump in on the disruption of the ports. We're really just now seeing the diversions as it relates to the disruptions in both Panama and the Red Sea and Suez and so it's a bit early for us to see real medium-term leasing decisions in response to these disruptions. But number one is the clarification or the ratification of the labor agreement on the West Coast is providing a clear landscape for decision-making and the engines of growth are beginning to kick in Southern California.

卡米爾，是克里斯。我想介入解決港口中斷的問題。我們現在確實剛剛看到這些轉移，因為它與巴拿馬、紅海和蘇伊士運河的中斷有關，因此，我們現在看到針對這些中斷做出的真正的中期租賃決策還為時過早。但最重要的是，西海岸勞工協議的澄清或批准為決策提供了清晰的前景，南加州的成長引擎也開始啟動。

Let me make that point a little stronger. I think all this concern about L.A. is over. And it hasn't shown up in the numbers yet, but it will in the next 6 months. So I don't think we'll be sitting here on calls like this worrying about L.A. and its absorption. Now will we worry about something else? I'm sure we will. I don't know whether that's going to be the East Coast or Houston or whatever.

讓我進一步強調這一點。我認為所有對洛杉磯的擔憂都已經結束了。目前它還沒有體現在數字中，但會在未來 6 個月內體現出來。所以我認為我們不會坐在這裡參加這樣的電話會議，擔心洛杉磯及其吸收。現在我們還要擔心別的事情嗎？我相信我們會的。我不知道是東海岸還是休士頓還是其他地方。

But yes, I mean, you've seen 2 big movements. It's not just Suez. It's also a Panama Canal and the water issues there and the expense of shipping stuff through the canal is leading to more reversion back to the normal way of doing it, which is getting it to a land and land verging it over. But there could be other disruptions. It could be something can blow up in the Persian Gulf. So it's very hard to predict those things.

但是，是的，我的意思是，你已經看到了兩個大動作。不只是蘇伊士運河危機。這也是巴拿馬運河，那裡的水問題以及透過運河運輸貨物的費用導致更多人回歸到正常的運輸方式，即把貨物運到陸地上，然後再通過運河運送貨物。但可能還會出現其他幹擾。波斯灣可能會發生爆炸。所以很難預測這些事情。

The big message is this, we can spend a lot of time guessing as to what the share of West Coast is, East Coast is all of that. The point is people thought COVID was the big unknown factor. And now that COVID is over, the world is going to go back to a stable, predictable just-in-time type of inventory strategy. I think each one of these things, whether it's Panama, whether it's Suez, whether it's or in the Middle East, whether it's something in the Persian Gulf, we'll remind people that they generally need to have a more conservative inventory strategy. And that's the big long-term driver, which is going to be a tailwind for demand that we haven't really seen play out just yet. We're pretty confident that will.

最重要的訊息是，我們可以花很多時間猜測西海岸的份額是多少，東海岸就是所有這些。關鍵在於人們認為新冠病毒是最大的未知因素。現在，新冠疫情已經結束，世界將回歸穩定、可預測的即時庫存策略。我認為每一件事，無論是巴拿馬，無論是蘇伊士運河，無論是在中東，還是在波斯灣，我們都會提醒人們，他們通常需要採取更保守的庫存策略。這是一個巨大的長期驅動力，這將成為我們尚未真正看到的需求的推動力。我們對此非常有信心。

And our next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mike Mueller 與摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的對話。

Do your comments about seeing revived customer interest apply to big box leasing as well?

您對客戶興趣復甦的評論是否也適用於大型租賃？

Yes. In fact, I would say some of the largest customers that we talk to are -- use an overused word, there are definitely some green shoots. There [posterous] is changing from that of let's hold off, and they've held up as long as they can because they're building out their networks, particularly on the e-comm side. And I think given that the economy hasn't tanked, like everybody thought it would 1.5 years ago, I think they're tip toeing out there. And with the first couple doing it, I think the rest will follow. So I think, yes, the big box guys are coming out of the shadows and taking up some space again.

是的。事實上，我想說的是，我們接觸過的一些最大的客戶是——用一個過度使用的詞來說，肯定有一些萌芽。那裡的[posterous]正在從讓我們推遲的情況發生變化，他們已經盡可能地堅持下去，因為他們正在建立他們的網絡，特別是在電子商務方面。我認為，考慮到經濟並沒有像 1.5 年前每個人想像的那樣陷入困境，我認為他們正在謹慎行事。隨著第一對夫婦做到了，我想剩下的也會跟著來。所以我認為，是的，大盒子們正在走出陰影，再次佔據一些空間。

And our next question comes from the line of John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自蒙特利爾銀行資本市場部的約翰金 (John Kim)。

On your commentary on Southern California coming -- rents coming down 7%. Can you give the same color on New York, New Jersey, that's a market you've seen a larger decline sequentially in occupancy and now you're discussing issues with port volumes and the canals?

關於您對即將到來的南加州的評論——租金將下降 7%。您能否對紐約、新澤西州給予相同的顏色，您看到該市場的入住率連續下降幅度更大，而現在您正在討論港口容量和運河的問題？

We are not going to get into quarterly rent forecast, and we're not going to get into market-by-market forecast. We run a 1.2 billion square foot business, and I think we are ready in terms of a company of our size and disclosure and details are definitely in the 99th percentile, and we just don't have that ability, so we're not going to put some numbers out there that we can't be certain of. So if you don't mind, just let's stay away from that fine level of dissection beyond our ability.

我們不會進行季度租金預測，也不會進行逐個市場的預測。我們經營著 12 億平方英尺的業務，我認為就我們這樣的規模和披露和細節的公司而言，我們已經做好了準備，而且我們只是沒有這種能力，所以我們不會列出一些我們無法確定的數字。所以，如果你不介意的話，就讓我們遠離超出我們能力範圍的精細解剖吧。

And the next question comes from the line of Nick Thillman with Baird.

下一個問題來自尼克·蒂爾曼和貝爾德的對話。

You guys touched a little bit on (technical difficulty) at your investor forum, you kind of mentioned that you expected ex-U.S. to outperform U.S. in a market rent growth standpoint. Is still -- is that still the case? And then maybe could you just highlight some markets that you're a little bit more incrementally positive on over the last 30 days of activity?

你們在投資者論壇上談到了一些（技術難度），你們提到你們預計美國以外的地區會出現這種情況。從市場租金成長的角度來看，其表現優於美國。仍然是這樣嗎？然後，也許您可以重點介紹一些您在過去 30 天的活動中逐漸變得更加積極的市場嗎？

It's Chris. Yes, indeed, we saw International outperformed in the fourth quarter, our view is that it will outperform in 2024. And there are a wide range of international markets that are enjoying really strong market rent growth. Latin America, both Brazil and Mexico, turning to Europe, probably Northern Europe is the strongest. And then here in North America, Toronto is a market that's also enjoying outsized growth.

是克里斯。是的，確實，我們看到國際市場在第四季度表現出色，我們認為 2024 年它將表現出色。而且有許多國際市場正在享受真正強勁的市場租金成長。拉丁美洲，巴西和墨西哥，轉向歐洲，可能北歐是最強的。在北美，多倫多也是一個正在經歷巨大成長的市場。

Yes, U.K. is outperforming, too.

是的，英國也表現出色。

And the next question comes from the line of Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自維克拉姆·馬爾霍特拉 (Vikram Malhotra) 與瑞穗 (Mizuho) 的關係。

Just 2 quick ones. So just first of all, going back, Chris, I guess, to your comment around $250 million in demand, if I heard that correctly, in '24. Can you just give us what's the actual number in '23, you're comparing that to? And with your leading indicators, just how long does the -- do the leading indicator sort of take in terms of conversion to leases. So that's just the first one to understand the comparison and the trajectory.

就2個快的。首先，克里斯，我想，回到你關於 2.5 億美元需求的評論，如果我沒聽錯的話，在 24 年。您能否告訴我們您要與之比較的 23 年的實際數字是多少？就您的領先指標而言，領先指標在轉換為租賃方面需要多長時間。所以這只是了解比較和軌跡的第一個。

And then second, do you mind just giving us some specifics on what you're baking in for numbers for cash rent spreads and where portfolio mark-to-market is?

其次，您是否介意向我們提供一些具體信息，說明您正在計算的現金租金利差數據以及投資組合按市價計算的情況？

It's Chris. Thanks for the question, Vikram. I'll take the first one. So 250 million square feet of net absorption in 2024 compared to 192 million square feet of net absorption in 2023. And we will consult a wide range of leading indicators, some of which are contemporary and some that have a 9- to 12-month lease.

是克里斯。謝謝你的提問，維克拉姆。我就拿第一個。因此，2024 年的淨吸收量為2.5 億平方英尺，而2023 年的淨吸收量為1.92 億平方英尺。我們將參考廣泛的領先指標，其中一些是當代的，一些是9 至12 個月的租賃期。

Vikram, on the lease mark-to-market, I'll just say again, I don't particularly value the cash view of the lease mark-to-market, I think it's fraught with a few issues. But to answer the question, we saw it at 49% at the end of the year. And I would expect, we've seen a pretty wide divergence in cash to net effective rent spreads because of a few things. The absolute level of rents has been so high and the bumps have been pretty large around 4%, as you've known. So the roughly -- due to [factory] as well, of course. So the roughly 20, 25 points that we've been seeing lately, I expect we'll see mostly continue into next year.

維克拉姆，關於租賃按市價計價，我再說一遍，我並不特別看重租賃按市價計價的現金觀點，我認為它充滿了一些問題。但要回答這個問題，我們看到年底這一比例為 49%。我預計，由於一些原因，我們已經看到現金與淨有效租金利差有相當大的差異。如您所知，租金的絕對水平如此之高，而且漲幅相當大，約為 4%。所以粗略地說——當然，也是由於[工廠]。所以我們最近看到的大約 20、25 個點，我預計我們會看到大部分會持續到明年。

And the next question comes from the line of Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Todd Thomas。

Just wanted to ask about capital deployment, 2 questions actually. First, can you talk a little bit more about the acquisition pipeline today and whether you are seeing an increase in seller interest to transact more deals coming to market and more product hitting the market? And then second, the spread between stabilized yields and cap rates for both development stabilizations and new starts narrowed in the quarter. Can you talk a little bit about that trend in spreads and what we might expect in '24 particularly as you move forward, just given the mix of build-to-suits and spec developments and some of the higher better use projects that you're ramping up on.

只是想問一下資金配置的問題，其實是兩個問題。首先，您能否多談談今天的收購管道，以及您是否看到賣方對交易更多進入市場的交易和更多產品進入市場的興趣增加？其次，穩定的收益率與開發穩定和新開工的上限利率之間的差距在本季縮小。您能否談談價差的趨勢以及我們在 24 年的預期，特別是當您繼續前進時，考慮到定制化和規格開發的組合以及您正在做的一些更高更好使用的項目正在加速。

Todd,, this is Dan. I'll respond to your questions here. First of all, yes is the quick answer to your first part of the question regarding the acquisition pipeline. Our teams are out there turning over every stone. It was a low volume year in the marketplace last year, and I expect that to be much higher this year.

托德，這是丹。我將在這裡回答您的問題。首先，「是」是對有關收購管道的問題第一部分的快速回答。我們的團隊正在竭盡全力。去年是市場銷售低迷的一年，我預計今年的銷售量會高很多。

So very strong acquisition pipeline. And then spreads on the stabilized yields in our development portfolio, yes, we've been talking for the last several quarters about that tightening. I remember 5, 6 quarters ago talking about cap rate expansion and that spread tightening and what that would do to impact our overall development portfolio. And that really just has to do with the cost of capital, volatile capital markets and who knows where that's going to go from here. It's certainly going to have something to do with the tenure and what the tenure does in the volatility in the capital markets. But overall, we build in forward risk in our overall development portfolio for the numbers that you actually see in that spread.

非常強大的收購管道。然後是我們的開發投資組合中穩定收益率的利差，是的，我們在過去幾個季度一直在談論緊縮政策。我記得五六個季度前談論過上限利率擴張和利差收緊以及這將對我們的整體開發投資組合產生什麼影響。這實際上與資本成本、不穩定的資本市場以及誰知道接下來會發生什麼有關。這肯定與任期以及任期在資本市場波動中的作用有關。但總體而言，我們在整體開發投資組合中根據您在該價差中實際看到的數字建立了遠期風險。

Go ahead, Tim.

繼續吧，提姆。

Yes. I'll just highlight, I think, well if we looked at the development portfolio, you see the margin there estimated at 22. Historically, that's still a very good margin. And under conservative underwriting assumptions, I would remind everybody, we've got an inflated cost to carry in there. We've got longer lease-up times and things that we expect that will be. So I'm pretty confident we'll be several points above that estimated margin anyway.

是的。我想強調一下，如果我們看一下開發組合，你會發現那裡的利潤率估計為 22。從歷史上看，這仍然是一個非常好的利潤率。我想提醒大家，在保守的核保假設下，我們的成本過高。我們的租賃時間更長，這也是我們所期望的。因此，我非常有信心無論如何我們都會比預期利潤高出幾個百分點。

And the next question comes from the line of Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的麥可‧卡羅爾。

I guess maybe, Chris, can you provide some color on tenant's mindsets to adding more inventory? I mean is it fair to say the tenants or at least some tenants have delayed these decisions over the past year just due to the macro uncertainty? And when does this change? I mean have customer discussions changed at all given the holiday season that you kind of just highlighted and how they didn't have enough inventory levels? I mean has that been changing? Or are they ready to make those investments today?

克里斯，我想也許你能提供一些關於租戶增加庫存的心態的資訊嗎？我的意思是，可以公平地說，租戶或至少一些租戶在過去一年中僅僅由於宏觀不確定性而推遲了這些決定嗎？這種情況什麼時候會改變？我的意思是，鑑於您剛剛強調的假期季節以及他們如何沒有足夠的庫存水平，客戶的討論是否發生了變化？我的意思是這種情況正在改變嗎？或者他們今天準備好進行這些投資了嗎？

Mike, it's Chris. I think you might have answered your own question. I totally agree with the sentiment in the direction you're taking it and there's likely to be a different posture going forward. And then I'd also look proposed that you can also reach out to them and get their feedback.

麥克，是克里斯。我想你可能已經回答了你自己的問題。我完全同意你所採取的方向的觀點，並且未來可能會採取不同的立場。然後我還建議您也可以聯繫他們並獲得他們的回饋。

Yes. I bet you their answer is they have no idea. I mean it's just been 16 days, right, 16, 17 days since the end of the year. Many of them haven't even added up their numbers. And I think those guys don't come out with earnings releases until much later. So with Michael's question, that was the last one. I wanted to thank you for not only this call, but also attending our Investor Day, has got a lot of great feedback from you and we'll make these things better and better over time and look forward to talking to you next quarter, if not before. Take care.

是的。我敢打賭他們的答案是他們不知道。我的意思是，距離年底才過去 16 天，對吧，16、17 天。他們中的許多人甚至還沒有把他們的數字加起來。我認為這些人要等到很久以後才會發布收益報告。麥可的問題就是最後一個問題。我不僅想感謝您參加這次電話會議，還感謝您參加我們的投資者日，從您那裡得到了很多很好的反饋，我們將隨著時間的推移使這些事情變得越來越好，並期待下個季度與您交談，如果之前沒有。小心。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。