Prologis Inc (PLD) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Prologis First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加安博 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Natasha Law, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Natasha, you may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係總監 Natasha Law。謝謝你，娜塔莎，你可以開始了。

Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. The supplemental document is available on our website at prologis.com under Investor Relations.

謝謝，約翰。大家，早安。歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。補充文件可在我們的網站 prologis.com 的「投資者關係」下取得。

I'd like to state that this conference call will contain forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the market and the industry in which Prologis operates, as well as management's beliefs and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance, and actual operating results may be affected by a variety of factors. For a list of those factors, please refer to the forward-looking statement notice in our 10-K or other SEC filings.

我想聲明的是，本次電話會議將包含聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於對普洛斯經營所在市場和行業的當前預期、估計和預測，以及管理層的信念和假設。前瞻性陳述並非績效保證，實際經營績效可能會受到多種因素的影響。有關這些因素的列表，請參閱我們的 10-K 或其他 SEC 文件中的前瞻性聲明通知。

Additionally, our first quarter earnings press release and supplemental do contain financial measures such as FFO and EBITDA that are non-GAAP. And in accordance with Reg G, we have provided a reconciliation to those measures.

此外，我們的第一季財報新聞稿和補充資料確實包含非 GAAP 財務指標，例如 FFO 和 EBITDA。根據 Reg G，我們對這些措施進行了調節。

I'd like to welcome Tim Arndt, our CFO, who will cover results, real-time market conditions and guidance. Hamid Moghadam, our CEO, and our entire executive team are also with us today.

我要歡迎我們的財務長 Tim Arndt，他將介紹業績、即時市場狀況和指導。我們的執行長 Hamid Moghadam 和整個執行團隊今天也與我們在一起。

With that, I will hand the call over to Tim.

這樣，我會將電話轉交給提姆。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. We've had a good start to the year in terms of our operating and financial results in the first quarter. We delivered strong rent change, drove occupancy slightly ahead of our forecast, raised nearly $5 billion in capital, including $750 million in strategic capital, and made important headway in our energy business.

早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。從第一季的營運和財務表現來看，我們今年開局良好。我們的租金變化強勁，入住率略高於我們的預測，籌集了近 50 億美元的資本，其中包括 7.5 億美元的戰略資本，並在能源業務方面取得了重要進展。

That said, as we evaluate the market, persistent inflation and high interest rates have kept more customers focused on controlling costs. The resulting delay in decision-making easily observed through the first quarter's below-average net absorption will translate to lower leasing volume within the year.

也就是說，當我們評估市場時，持續的通貨膨脹和高利率使更多的客戶專注於控製成本。透過第一季低於平均的淨吸收量很容易觀察到由此導致的決策延遲，這將導致年內租賃量下降。

Accordingly, we've opted to adjust our guidance early, getting ahead of what looks like a period of occupancy below our forecast in the near term and its effect on same-store in a number of our higher rent markets. This is punctuated of course, by a more pronounced period of correction still underway in Southern California.

因此，我們選擇提前調整我們的指導，提前應對近期入住率低於我們預測的時期及其對我們許多租金較高市場中同店的影響。當然，南加州仍在進行更明顯的調整期。

New starts, however, continues to be surprisingly disciplined, adding to the expectation for limited new supply in the back half of '24, but also extending deeper into '25. When considered alongside muted demand, we arrive at a view that the operating environment has only changed modestly in aggregate and that demand is simply pushing out by a few quarters. The outcome of this may simply mean moving towards a long-term occupancy expectation more swiftly this year, which sets up for a better next year.

然而，新的開工仍然令人驚訝地受到限制，增加了對 24 年下半年新供應有限的預期，但也將延續到 25 年。當與需求疲軟一起考慮時，我們得出這樣的觀點：營運環境總體上僅發生了適度變化，需求只是推遲了幾個季度。其結果可能只是意味著今年將更快實現長期入住率預期，為明年更好的業績奠定基礎。

Turning to our results for the quarter. Core FFO, excluding promotes, was $1.31 per share, and including net promote expense was $1.28 per share, essentially in line with our forecast. Occupancy in the portfolio ended the quarter at 97%. For context, the U.S. market declined 310 basis points since its peak in the summer of '22, while our portfolio's occupancy has only declined 80 basis points, resulting in vacancy today for Prologis that is less than half of that in our markets and reflective of our portfolio quality.

轉向我們本季的業績。核心 FFO（不含促銷費用）為每股 1.31 美元，包括淨促銷費用為每股 1.28 美元，基本上符合我們的預測。本季末，投資組合的入住率為 97%。就背景而言，美國市場自22 年夏天的高峰以來下跌了310 個基點，而我們投資組合的入住率僅下降了80 個基點，導致今天普洛斯的空缺率還不到我們市場的一半，反映了我們的投資組合品質。

Net effective rent change was 68% based on commencements and 70% based on new signings. Following this in-place increase and changes in market rents, our net effective lease mark-to-market stands at 50%, representing over $2.2 billion of rent to harvest without any additional market rent growth from here. Rent growth capture just for the single quarter was approximately $110 million on an annualized basis and at our share.

淨有效租金變動為 68%（基於新簽約）和 70%（基於新簽約）。在市場租金的就地增長和變化之後，我們的淨有效租賃市值達到 50%，這意味著在沒有任何額外市場租金增長的情況下，我們將獲得超過 22 億美元的租金。以年化計算，我們所佔的單季租金成長約為 1.1 億美元。

Our same-store growth on a cash basis was 5.7%, and on a net effective basis was 4.1%. The same-store from rent change alone was strong at approximately 9%, but is impacted by a 130 basis point change in year-over-year vacancy as well as 150 basis points from fair value lease adjustments with the Duke portfolio's inclusion in our same-store pool. Additionally, there were approximately 175 basis points of items specific to the quarter, including onetime reconciling items from 2023, as well as unfavorable comps from low expenses last year.

我們的同店現金成長率為 5.7%，淨有效成長率為 4.1%。僅租金變動帶來的同店租金變化就很強勁，約為 9%，但受到空置率同比變化 130 個基點以及公允價值租賃調整 150 個基點的影響，杜克大學投資組合包含在我們的同一店面中-商店池。此外，本季特定項目約有 175 個基點，包括 2023 年的一次性調節項目，以及去年低費用帶來的不利比較。

We started over $270 million of new developments in the quarter, bringing our portfolio to approximately $7.5 billion at our share, with estimated value creation of over $1.7 billion, a number we feel increasingly confident in with value stabilizing.

本季我們啟動了價值超過 2.7 億美元的新開發項目，使我們的投資組合達到約 75 億美元，預計價值創造超過 17 億美元，我們對價值穩定的數字越來越有信心。

In our energy business, we've made meaningful progress on this year's deployment, including the signing of 405 megawatts of long-term storage related contracts with investment-grade utilities. We also delivered the largest EV fleet charging project in the United States, less than 15 miles from both the ports of L.A. and Long Beach. Finally, we raised $4.1 billion of debt across our balance sheet and funds at a weighted average rate of 4.7% in the term of 10 years. Our debt portfolio has an overall in-place rate of just 3.1% with more than 9 years of average remaining life, and liquidity at the end of the quarter of over $5.8 billion.

在我們的能源業務方面，我們今年的部署取得了有意義的進展，包括與投資級公用事業公司簽署了 405 兆瓦的長期儲存相關合約。我們還交付了美國最大的電動車隊充電項目，距離洛杉磯和長灘港口不到 15 英里。最後，我們在 10 年內以 4.7% 的加權平均利率在資產負債表和基金中籌集了 41 億美元的債務。我們的債務組合整體到位率僅 3.1%，平均剩餘壽命超過 9 年，季末流動性超過 58 億美元。

Turning to market conditions. Most broad economic data, from unemployment to retail sales, to the health of the consumer, remain very strong. And while our tour, proposal and other proprietary metrics are similarly positive, overall leasing activity and net absorption are running below expectations. Net absorption in the U.S., for example, was very low this quarter at just 27 million square feet. So while the macro landscape and supply chains continue to generate a need for space, we think it prudent to expect continued headwinds on overall absorption over the next few quarters.

轉向市場狀況。從失業率到零售銷售，再到消費者健康狀況，最廣泛的經濟數據仍然非常強勁。雖然我們的巡迴、提案和其他專有指標同樣積極，但整體租賃活動和淨吸收量低於預期。例如，本季美國的淨吸收量非常低，僅 2,700 萬平方英尺。因此，儘管宏觀形勢和供應鏈繼續產生對空間的需求，但我們認為，謹慎地預計未來幾季整體吸收將繼續面臨阻力。

The interest rate environment and its associated volatility have weighed on customer decision-making, especially as the 10-year has increased 70 basis points from its level just 90 days ago and expectations for Fed rate cuts have moved from potentially 6 to now possibly 0.

利率環境及其相關的波動性給客戶決策帶來了壓力，特別是考慮到10 年期國債已較90 天前的水平上升了70 個基點，而且對聯準會降息的預期已從潛在的6 個基點變為目前可能的0 個基點。

In parallel, sublease and space utilization rates highlight that some customers have available capacity, driven in part by the high rate of absorption through the pandemic. This dynamic of available space intersecting with the desire for cost containment is what leads to lower absorption and is playing out at different rates across some markets and customers.

同時，轉租和空間利用率突顯出一些客戶擁有可用容量，部分原因是疫情期間的高吸收率。這種可用空間的動態與成本控制的願望相交叉，導致吸收率降低，並且在一些市場和客戶中以不同的速度發揮作用。

For example, while slow leasing has persisted so far this year for less capitalized customers and 3PLs, we see a handful of large e-commerce and retail customers further along in this process, such as Amazon, who voiced caution 2 years ago but is now active in several global markets and has openly discussed plans to commit to significant amounts of new space.

例如，雖然今年到目前為止，資本較少的客戶和3PL 的租賃持續緩慢，但我們看到少數大型電子商務和零售客戶在這一過程中走得更遠，例如亞馬遜，兩年前曾表示謹慎，但現在活躍於多個全球市場，並公開討論了投入大量新空間的計劃。

The overall leasing slowdown is most felt in only a handful of markets, Southern California and the Inland Empire being the most acute. In fact, rents in most of our U.S. markets are generally flat, several are up, and it is mainly elongated downtime affecting near-term occupancy and NOI. While Southern California leasing has been challenging, it has not slowed the tremendous uplift we realize every single quarter from rent change on rollover, which was 120% for the market in the first quarter, with the Inland Empire at 156%, nearly the highest in our portfolio.

整體租賃放緩僅在少數市場中最為明顯，其中南加州和內陸帝國最為嚴重。事實上，我們美國大部分市場的租金整體持平，也有部分上漲，主要是停工時間延長影響了近期入住率和NOI。雖然南加州的租賃一直充滿挑戰，但這並沒有減緩我們每季因展期租金變化而實現的巨大增長，第一季市場增幅為 120%，內陸帝國為 156%，幾乎是全美最高的。我們的投資組合。

In Europe, rents grew overall during the quarter, which we believe will remain the case over the balance of the year. And of course, LatAm continues to impress with very high occupancy and market rent growth that has led the globe in recent quarters. Overall, global market rents declined slightly over 1% in the quarter, driven mostly by Southern California, and would have been slightly positive if excluded.

在歐洲，本季租金整體成長，我們認為今年剩餘時間將維持這種情況。當然，拉丁美洲繼續以極高的入住率和市場租金成長給人留下深刻印象，近幾季引領全球。總體而言，本季全球市場租金下降了 1% 以上，主要是由南加州推動的，如果排除此因素，全球市場租金將略有上升。

I'd like to spend a moment on Baltimore where we own over 18 million square feet and has been a dynamic market of ours for decades. Our employees, customers and properties are all safe following the bridge collapse last month, and our customers expect to be able to withstand the disruption with little impact to their businesses.

我想在巴爾的摩停留片刻，我們擁有超過 1800 萬平方英尺的土地，幾十年來一直是我們充滿活力的市場。上個月橋樑倒塌後，我們的員工、客戶和財產都很安全，我們的客戶希望能夠承受這次破壞，同時對其業務影響很小。

Shifting to capital markets. Valuations increased in all of our geographies, except for China, which saw a very small decline. Over the last 1.5 years, global values have decreased despite increases in cash flow due to cap rate expansion. As cap rates have stabilized, cash flow growth now has the ability to translate to value growth.

轉向資本市場。我們所有地區的估值均有所上升，但中國除外，中國的估值略有下降。在過去 1.5 年裡，儘管資本化率擴張導致現金流增加，但全球價值卻下降。隨著資本化率趨於穩定，現金流成長現在有能力轉化為價值成長。

Even though modest, the value uplift in the U.S. and Europe are important as strategic capital investors have been looking for values to not only bottom but actually turn upwards before committing new capital. With Europe a bit ahead of the U.S. in this regard, it is indeed where we've seen stronger fundraising interest in recent quarters. We also have a successful equity raise in FIBRA Prologis, raising over $500 million for deployment into both assets to be contributed from our balance sheet as well as pursuit of third-party acquisitions.

儘管幅度不大，但美國和歐洲的價值提升很重要，因為戰略資本投資者一直在尋求價值不僅觸底，而且在投入新資本之前實際上會上升。由於歐洲在這方面領先於美國，因此我們最近幾季確實看到了更強烈的融資興趣。我們也成功完成了 FIBRA Prologis 的股權融資，籌集了超過 5 億美元的資金，用於部署我們的資產負債表中的資產以及尋求第三方收購。

Transaction volumes and activity have ticked up in recent weeks, and pricing has certainly improved. As always, we're actively looking at acquisition opportunities across all of our markets, but our focus remains on the development of our land bank, which provides an opportunity for over $38 billion of build-out with a return on incremental capital of approximately 8.5%.

最近幾週交易量和活動有所增加，定價也確實有所改善。一如既往，我們正在積極尋找所有市場的收購機會，但我們的重點仍然是土地儲備的開發，這為超過 380 億美元的擴建提供了機會，增量資本回報率約為 8.5 %。

In terms of guidance, in light of our views on demand and leasing pace in the coming quarters, we are reducing our average occupancy guidance to range between 95.75% and 96.75%. Of the 75 basis point adjustment from the midpoint, it's important to understand that approximately 2/3 of this change stems from our higher rent markets, meaning they create a disproportionate impact on same-store in 2024. Same-store growth on a net effective basis will range between 5.5% and 6.5%, a reduction of 150 basis points, which accounts for the average occupancy decline, slightly lower rent change for the year, as well as 30 basis points of annualized impact from the onetime items in the first quarter mentioned earlier.

在指導方面，根據我們對未來幾季的需求和租賃速度的看法，我們將平均入住率指引降低至 95.75% 至 96.75% 之間。在與中點相比的75 個基點調整中，重要的是要了解這一變化的大約2/3 源於我們較高的租金市場，這意味著它們對2024 年同店產生了不成比例的影響。同店淨有效成長基差將在 5.5% 至 6.5% 之間，減少 150 個基點，導致平均入住率下降、全年租金變化略有下降，以及第一季一次性項目的年化影響 30 個基點之前提到。

Our revised range on a cash basis is now 6.25% to 7.25%. We are maintaining our guidance for strategic capital revenue, excluding promotes, to a range of $530 million to $550 million, and reducing our G&A guidance to a range of $415 million to $430 million.

我們以現金計算的修訂範圍目前為 6.25% 至 7.25%。我們將策略資本收入（不包括促銷）的指導維持在 5.3 億至 5.5 億美元的範圍內，並將一般管理費用指引降低至 4.15 億至 4.3 億美元的範圍。

We're adjusting development start guidance for the year through a revised range of $2.5 billion to $3 billion at our share, reflecting our disciplined and speculative starts and the timing impact this has in the calendar year. As we've always said, we don't consider our guidance to be a target internally and each deal ultimately needs to be rational and accretive on its own.

我們正在將今年的開發啟動指導調整為我們所佔份額的 25 億美元至 30 億美元的修訂範圍，反映了我們嚴格的投機性啟動以及這對日曆年的時間影響。正如我們一直所說的，我們不認為我們的指導是內部目標，每筆交易最終都需要自身合理且具有增值性。

In the end, we're forecasting GAAP earnings to range between $3.15 and $3.35 per share. Core FFO, including net promote expense, will range between $5.37 and $5.47 per share, while core FFO, excluding promotes, will range from $5.45 to $5.55 per share. Our updated guidance calls for core earnings growth of nearly 8% at the midpoint.

最終，我們預計 GAAP 收益將在每股 3.15 美元至 3.35 美元之間。核心 FFO（包括淨促銷費用）將在每股 5.37 美元至 5.47 美元之間，而核心 FFO（不包括促銷費用）將在每股 5.45 美元至 5.55 美元之間。我們更新後的指引要求核心獲利中位數成長近 8%。

As we close out, I'd like to underscore the message of the call, which is that while we have only a modest change of view in the intermediate term, our confidence in the long term is intact. And putting timing aside, we're encouraged by the outlook for supply in the back half of this year and '25, have tremendous lease mark-to-market to harvest in the interim, and are pleased to see valuations, fundraising and transaction activity all picking up.

在我們結束時，我想強調這次電話會議傳達的訊息，即雖然我們在中期的觀點僅略有改變，但我們對長期的信心完好無損。拋開時間不談，我們對今年下半年和 25 年的供應前景感到鼓舞，在此期間將獲得巨大的租賃市場回報，並很高興看到估值、籌款和交易活動全部拾取。

With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for your questions.

這樣，我會將電話轉給接線員詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from the line of Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自高盛的凱特琳·伯羅斯（Caitlin Burrows）。

It seems like, I guess, occupancy and maybe pricing are coming in a little lower than you had previously expected. So I was wondering, could you go through how much or what pieces might be more macro driven and how much is certain markets weighing on the outlook? Tim, you did mention how some of the high rent markets are having an outsized impact. So wondering if you could just go through what might be more macro versus market specific.

我猜想，入住率和價格可能會比你之前的預期要低一些。所以我想知道，您能否介紹一下有多少或哪些部分可能更受宏觀驅動，以及某些市場對前景的影響有多大？提姆，您確實提到了一些高租金市場如何產生巨大的影響。所以想知道您是否可以看看更宏觀的內容與特定市場的內容。

Caitlin, it's Chris Caton. I'll start by saying, I think it's a combination of factors. For sure, as Tim described, Southern California and a handful of other high rent markets, the leasing velocity has been subdued and rent growth has been a little bit below expectations. So there is that softness. But we also want to point to a couple of quarters of deferred decision-making leading aggregate customer demand across the United States to be a little bit below what we previously expected.

凱特琳，我是克里斯‧卡頓。首先我要說的是，我認為這是多種因素綜合的結果。當然，正如蒂姆所描述的，南加州和其他一些高租金市場的租賃速度已經放緩，租金成長略低於預期。所以就有了那種柔軟。但我們也想指出，幾季的決策延遲導緻美國各地的客戶總需求略低於我們先前的預期。

The only thing I might add, Caitlin, is -- would be just nominally in the sense of dollars and the impact on same-store. We do see about half of our adjustments as coming from SoCal.

凱特琳，我唯一要補充的是──名義上是美元意義上的以及對同店的影響。我們確實看到大約一半的調整來自南加州。

And the next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa。

I guess for Tim or Hamid, can you maybe just help kind of flesh out sort of maybe the timing of when some of these things became a little bit more evident? I guess I'm thinking back to some of the conferences and the like in March. And my sense was the tone and concern about the business maybe wasn't as acute as it is right now. And I know you have confidence in the long term. But it sort of feels like there's a sea change in your outlook in maybe the last 30 to maybe 45 days. So I guess, what is prompting that, other than maybe seeing hard data, but maybe just help flesh out kind of the timing of this? And are there other factors at work here?

我想對提姆或哈米德來說，你能否幫助充實一些這些事情何時變得更加明顯的時間？我想我正在回想起三月的一些會議之類的。我的感覺是，人們對這項業務的態度和擔憂可能不像現在那麼嚴重。我知道您對長期發展充滿信心。但在過去 30 到 45 天內，你的看法似乎發生了翻天覆地的變化。所以我想，除了可能看到硬數據之外，是什麼促使了這一點，但也許只是有助於充實這一時機？還有其他因素在起作用嗎？

Steve, let me take a stab at that. If you are sensing any acute change in our outlook, you're not reading our call correctly. We have picked a 3-year window, I think, in our Analyst Day to give you our expectations. And the first year of that window has moved around. So our outlook for the back period of second and third year, essentially the same, and could be even better given how much deferred demand is building up.

史蒂夫，讓我嘗試一下。如果您感覺到我們的前景有任何急劇變化，那麼您就沒有正確解讀我們的呼籲。我認為，我們在分析師日選擇了一個 3 年的窗口期來向您提供我們的期望。這個視窗的第一年已經移動了。因此，我們對第二年和第三年後期的前景基本上相同，考慮到遞延需求的增加，前景可能會更好。

If our proposals were down, if our tours were down, I would be more concerned. But companies are out looking at this space. And if you think nothing has changed in the last 45 or 90 days with respect to the Fed outlook, you must be reading different newspapers than I am.

如果我們的提案被拒絕，如果我們的旅行被拒絕，我會更加擔心。但公司正在關注這個領域。如果您認為過去 45 或 90 天內聯準會的前景沒有任何變化，那麼您閱讀的報紙一定與我不同。

So I would tell you that people are just scared of pulling the trigger until the Fed gives the all clear sign with the first rate cut. So yes, we're not instantaneous in our data transmission to us and to you, but I can assure you that you will always hear our views immediately as we form them and as we get them from the marketplace.

所以我想告訴你，人們只是害怕扣動扳機，直到聯準會發出第一次降息的明確訊號。所以，是的，我們並不是即時向我們和您傳輸數據，但我可以向您保證，當我們形成觀點並從市場上獲取觀點時，您總是會立即聽到我們的觀點。

And the next question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

It sounds like demand has been pushed out -- or the rebound in the management pushed out of a few quarters. So I was wondering if -- what evidence do you have that would support that? And then how do we compare that to some of the proprietary metrics that you put together, which seem to indicate that things are actually pretty positive or accelerating?

聽起來需求已經被推遲了——或者管理層的反彈被推遲了幾個季度。所以我想知道——你有什麼證據可以支持這一點？然後我們如何將其與您匯總的一些專有指標進行比較，這些指標似乎表明事情實際上非常積極或正在加速？

Michael, Chris Caton. Thanks for the question. As we've kind of covered in the script, and I think worth pointing out here, whether it's consumer resilience has revealed by economic indicators like the labor metrics or retail sales, whether you look at our own customers and supply chain momentum as revealed by our IBI, volumes through the ports and our proposal volumes, the broader economy is generating a normal amount of demand.

邁克爾，克里斯卡頓。謝謝你的提問。正如我們在腳本中所介紹的那樣，我認為這裡值得指出的是，無論是勞動力指標或零售銷售等經濟指標所揭示的消費者彈性，還是我們自己的客戶和供應鏈動力，如我們的IBI 、透過港口的吞吐量和我們的提案量，更廣泛的經濟正在產生正常的需求量。

A couple of things to consider, though. One is, as you can see in utilization data and in sublease space, some customers have spare capacity that they are utilizing to accommodate some of this growth. We also have these leading indicators, we need to simply see customers convert space requirements into signed leases. So just the simple conversion of investigation into signed leasing. And indeed, we already are seeing the front edge of some leading global e-commerce companies and other retailers begin to make space. It's just not broadly yet occurring across the whole marketplace.

不過，有幾件事需要考慮。一是，正如您在利用率數據和轉租空間中看到的那樣，一些客戶擁有閒置容量，他們正在利用這些閒置容量來適應部分成長。我們也有這些領先指標，我們需要簡單地看到客戶將空間需求轉化為已簽署的租約。所以只是簡單地將調查轉化為簽約租賃。事實上，我們已經看到一些領先的全球電子商務公司和其他零售商開始騰出空間。只是這種情況還沒有在整個市場上廣泛發生。

Yes. The only thing I would add to that is that the effect is not uniform in all markets. And I think what's going on. And this is a theory, this is not a fact. It's a theory, but it's based on 40 years of looking at this stuff. Southern California has over 30% share for 3PLs. And the rest of the U.S. market has a little under 20% share of 3PLs.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，所有市場的影響力並不統一。我想這是怎麼回事。這是一個理論，這不是事實。這是一個理論，但它是基於 40 年對這個東西的研究。南加州 3PL 的份額超過 30%。美國其他市場的 3PL 份額略低於 20%。

3PLs are -- serve 2 purposes. One, they provide outsourcing of the logistics activities, but they also create surge space. In other words, companies use 3PLs as a way of flexing up and down. So markets that have a bigger exposure to 3PLs are likely to feel the impacts of shifts in sentiment sooner than other markets, on the way down and on the way up.

3PL 有兩個目的。第一，他們提供物流活動的外包，但他們也創造了激增的空間。換句話說，公司使用 3PL 作為上下調整的方式。因此，與 3PL 風險敞口較大的市場可能比其他市場更早感受到情緒變化的影響，無論是下跌還是上漲。

Also, there are certain customers who have instantaneous access to sales data and activity. And I would say the e-commerce players, the big ones, have the best data on that because they see the trends on a daily, minute-by-minute basis. Those guys were early in terms of curtailing their demand. And I got to tell you, they're after pretty aggressively. And don't listen to what we say, listen to what they say in their own annual reports, in their own interviews with the press, and I think you'll see that they feel pretty confident about their business and they're a bit ahead of the curve.

此外，某些客戶可以即時存取銷售數據和活動。我想說的是，電子商務巨頭，大型企業，擁有這方面最好的數據，因為他們每天、每分鐘都能看到趨勢。這些人很早就開始削減需求。我必須告訴你，他們的追捕非常積極。不要聽我們說什麼，聽聽他們在自己的年度報告中、在接受媒體採訪時所說的話，我想你會發現他們對自己的業務非常有信心，而且他們有點曲線的前方。

Now all of this is subject to missiles not flying in the Middle East and the Fed not going crazy, and God knows what else can happen in this world. So -- but as far as we see the indications are really good, and this certainly does not feel like any of the other downturns that I've been part of. So again, the word acute sounds a little bit of an overreaction to me.

現在所有這一切都取決於導彈不在中東飛行以及美聯儲不會發瘋，天知道這個世界上還會發生什麼。所以，但據我們所知，跡象確實很好，而且這肯定不像我經歷過的任何其他經濟衰退。再說一次，「急性」這個詞對我來說聽起來有點反應過度。

And the next question comes from the line of Craig Mailman with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的克雷格‧梅爾曼 (Craig Mailman)。

Maybe comment at this from another way. And Hamid, I know you don't like the word acute, but maybe this seems a little bit more preemptive, because if you guys are seeing a lot of the metrics in line with your budget, retention was kind of in line with where you guys have been in the last couple of quarters, it feels like this is an anticipation of maybe slower takedowns that you're seeing.

也許可以從另一種方式對此進行評論。哈米德，我知道你不喜歡「敏銳」這個詞，但也許這看起來有點先發制人，因為如果你們看到很多指標符合你的預算，那麼保留率就有點符合你的情況。的幾個季度裡，感覺就像是對你所看到的可能會更慢的擊倒的預期。

I mean, is there anything else on the exploration side of the equation that you guys have a couple of bigger known move-outs now that are going to skew numbers? I'm just trying to get a sense of how much of this is actually what you're seeing real time versus just giving yourselves a little bit of cushion so that you don't have to kind of readjust later in the year.

我的意思是，在等式的探索方面還有什麼其他的事情嗎？我只是想了解一下，其中有多少是你即時看到的，而不是給自己一點緩衝，這樣你就不必在今年晚些時候重新調整。

And also just a question on development. How much of this kind of occupancy decline is just developments coming on a little bit less lease than maybe you had thought a couple of months ago? We noticed your development margins were pretty -- were single digit this quarter. I don't remember the last time I've seen that. And is that a reflection of this or is there something else going on as well?

這也只是一個關於發展的問題。這種入住率下降有多少是因為開發案的租賃量比您幾個月前想像的要少一些？我們注意到你們的開發利潤相當可觀——本季僅為個位數。我不記得上次看到它是什麼時候了。這是這種情況的反映還是還有其他事情發生？

Okay. Let me start that and then I'll turn it over to Chris and then to Dan to talk about development margins specifically. We like to be early and thoughtful in outlooks that we share with you. And we've always prided ourselves in doing that. And in some cases, in the past, as you know, you've been following us for a long time, we've taken pretty bold statements on the way up and on the way down, and actually been proven pretty right about it.

好的。讓我開始，然後我將把它交給克里斯，然後交給丹專門討論開發利潤。我們希望儘早、深思熟慮地與您分享我們的觀點。我們一直為此感到自豪。在某些情況下，在過去，如您所知，您已經關注我們很長時間了，我們在上漲和下跌過程中都採取了相當大膽的聲明，並且實際上被證明是非常正確的。

So for us to be late on this stuff is not something that we look forward to. So we always try to be on the lookout for trends that may be interesting to our investors and to you who are looking at our company on a real-time basis. So I'm not smarting up to assign percentages of how much of this is preemptive and how much of it is. But I can tell you, there's nothing going on in the portfolio. There's not some news embedded deep in our customer behavior or some markets that we're not sharing with you. This is just looking at the tone of the marketplace and sharing with you what we see playing out in the next 2 to 3 quarters. Nothing beyond that. And the outlook for the long term is very much the same as it was before.

因此，對我們來說，在這件事上遲到並不是我們所期待的。因此，我們始終努力尋找我們的投資者和即時關注我們公司的您可能感興趣的趨勢。所以我不會聰明地分配其中有多少是先發制人的以及有多少是先發制人的百分比。但我可以告訴你，投資組合中沒有任何進展。我們的客戶行為或市場中沒有任何新聞是我們不與您分享的。這只是觀察市場基調，並與您分享我們在未來 2 到 3 個季度中看到的情況。除此之外就沒有什麼了。長期前景與以前非常相似。

Dan, do you want to talk about the margins?

丹，你想談談利潤嗎？

Yes. The margins this quarter is actually an isolated event here. We have 15, 17 projects stabilize. We had one project that just had a confluence of events take place, whether it be weather, some infrastructure, municipal requirements, and it just came in at a pretty negative margin weighing down the overall average margin for the quarter. If you pull that out, our margins for the quarter would actually be a more reasonable 15%, 16%.

是的。本季的利潤率實際上是一個孤立的事件。我們有15、17個項目穩定下來。我們有一個項目，發生了一系列事件，無論是天氣、一些基礎設施、市政要求，但它的利潤率相當為負，拖累了本季的整體平均利潤率。如果你把這個算出來，我們這個季度的利潤率實際上會是更合理的 15%、16%。

And the next question comes from the line of Camille Bonnel with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Camille Bonnel。

Hamid, you mentioned how the company likes to be early on calling things, but I noticed that you only updated your outlook on operations and guidance. So can you help us understand how conservative guidance levels are? Or could we see more downward revisions, for example, if you start to pull back on the capital deployment front?

哈米德，你提到公司喜歡儘早宣布事情，但我注意到你只更新了對營運和指導的展望。那麼您能幫助我們了解指導程度有多保守嗎？或者，例如，如果您開始縮減資本部署，我們是否會看到更多的向下修正？

Well, on capital deployment specifically, you may remember that I'm always saying, the only reason we provide guidance is because you asked us. We actually don't have a budget or a plan for deploying capital. We look at every investment opportunity one at a time. So all our elements of our guidance, and this doesn't go for just this period, it goes to any period, I would take that one with a grain of salt. We're not afraid to deploy a lot more or a lot less capital if the market conditions warrant it.

嗯，具體到資本部署方面，您可能還記得我總是說，我們提供指導的唯一原因是因為您問我們。我們實際上沒有預算或部署資本的計劃。我們一次一個地審視每一個投資機會。因此，我們指導的所有要素，這不僅適用於這個時期，它適用於任何時期，我對此持保留態度。如果市場條件允許，我們不會害怕部署更多或更少的資本。

With respect to conservatism, I would say we call it as close to the pin as we can get it, with a very slight bit of conservatism, it's not a lot, just a bit so that, in the majority of the cases, we're pretty confident of what we're saying. But we're not 100% confident. There is -- there could be downside beyond that. But I would say, we try to call it as we see it and be careful that we don't regularly -- we don't want to disappoint 50% of the time, which is really calling it right on the pin. We'd like to be a little more conservative than that. Now we don't always get it right. So let's admit that.

關於保守主義，我想說的是，我們盡可能地把它稱為最接近的保守主義，有一點點保守主義，不是很多，只是一點點，所以在大多數情況下，我們“我們對我們所說的話非常有信心。但我們不是 100% 有信心。除此之外，還可能存在負面影響。但我想說的是，我們嘗試按照我們所看到的方式來稱呼它，並小心我們不經常這樣做——我們不想讓 50% 的時間失望，這實際上是正確的稱呼。我們希望比這更保守一點。現在我們並不總是能做對。所以讓我們承認這一點。

And Camille, it's Tim. I might build on your -- the first part of your question as well, which is that, at prevailing cap rates and the cost of debt and everything else, there's very little you could actually do in deployment in the year to affect earnings in year 1 or 2. I find that deployment changes tend to have kind of a push effect on earnings. So you should probably have that in your thinking as you watch our guidance.

卡米爾，是提姆。我也可能會基於您的問題的第一部分，即，按照現行資本化率、債務成本和其他一切，您在今年的部署中實際上幾乎無法做任何事情來影響當年的收益1 或2。部署變化往往會對收益產生推動作用。因此，當您觀看我們的指南時，您可能應該想到這一點。

And the next question comes from the line of Nikita Bely with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自 Nikita Bely 與摩根大通的對話。

The $150 million of other real estate investments, curious, what exactly was that on the sales? And maybe also if you could talk about the reduction in development starts. Any color on that? Geographic focus or maybe spec or something else?

好奇，其他房地產投資的 1.5 億美元到底是什麼？也許您也可以談談開發啟動的減少。那上面有什麼顏色嗎？地理重點或規範或其他什麼？

That's basically -- the $150 million is some noncore assets. And we could not hear the second part of your question. Could you repeat that?

基本上，這 1.5 億美元是一些非核心資產。我們聽不到你問題的第二部分。你能再說一次嗎？

Reduction in development starts for this year. Any additional information you could provide on what drove that, whether it was geographic-based or asset specific or build-to-suit pull back?

今年開始減少開發量。您可以提供任何其他資訊來說明是什麼推動了這一趨勢，無論是基於地理的、特定於資產的還是客製化的回調？

Yes, thanks. This is Dan. I got a couple of thoughts on that point there on development starts. We adjusted our guidance on development consistent with the adjustment in the occupancy and the operating pool. So as we see demand shifting out, we just expect that we're going to start fewer buildings. We reduced it by about $0.5 billion. That's about half build-to-suit, half spec. We're raising the bar on spec, as Hamid said earlier, when we put that guidance out there because you asked for it.

對了謝謝。這是丹.關於開發開始的這一點，我有一些想法。我們根據入住率和營運池的調整調整了開發指導。因此，當我們看到需求轉移時，我們只是預計我們將開工更少的建築。我們減少了約 5 億美元。這大約是一半定制，一半規格。正如哈米德之前所說，我們正在提高規範標準，因為您要求我們將指南放在那裡。

We don't need to start these projects. We own the land. We have $38 billion worth of opportunity embedded in that land bank. We have entitlements. We have the teams, they're all geared up, ready to start. We can literally pull the trigger on $10 billion, $12 billion of that tomorrow. So we just look at that. We're just trying to be consistent and tie it to our overall outlook on demand. And there's no particular location or otherwise that we -- that dragged that down.

我們不需要啟動這些項目。我們擁有土地。我們的土地儲備蘊藏著價值 380 億美元的機會。我們有權利。我們有團隊，他們都已做好準備，準備開始。明天我們就可以真正扣下 100 億美元、120 億美元的板機。所以我們就看看這個。我們只是試圖保持一致，並將其與我們的整體需求前景聯繫起來。並沒有任何特定的地點或其他因素導致我們的情況下降。

Yes. And the only thing I would add to that is that, even though we made the adjustment on both the build-to-suit and the spec part, the bias is greater on the spec part. We actually feel pretty good about our build-to-suit volume going forward. So it's really the spec, which is discretionary. And we can, as Dan said, start that at any time.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，即使我們對定制和規格部分都進行了調整，但規格部分的偏差更大。事實上，我們對未來的客製化量感到非常滿意。所以這其實是規範，是可自由裁量的。正如丹所說，我們可以隨時開始。

And the next question comes from the line of Blaine Heck with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自布萊恩赫克 (Blaine Heck) 與富國銀行 (Wells Fargo) 的對話。

So you've called out Southern California as being soft again. Can you just talk about any specific segments of the market that are particularly weak whether that's by submarket or size? And what makes you confident in the recovery even as it seems it might be delayed kind of relative to your original expectations? And secondly, just curious if you can expand on which other high rent markets might be weighing on the outlook.

所以你又指責南加州軟弱了。您能否談談市場中特別薄弱的特定細分市場，無論是子市場還是規模？是什麼讓您對復甦充滿信心，儘管復甦似乎比您最初的預期有所延遲？其次，只是想知道您是否可以擴展哪些其他高租金市場可能會影響前景。

Blaine, it's Chris Caton. Thanks for the question. So Southern California is a market that continues to soften, vacancy rates are continuing to rise, yes, after different submarkets. The softest area of Southern California is midsized and smaller units in the Inland Empire. The strongest area is probably Orange County. And Los Angeles, while subdued, has a 4% market vacancy rate, so as demand comes into that marketplace, bear in mind, demand has been negative over the last year, a very rare occurrence, as demand comes back in that marketplace, you're likely to see the vacancy rate make a difference in Los Angeles as well. In terms of other markets where we're watchful, the soft markets in the U.S. include New Jersey, Seattle and Savannah.

布萊恩，我是克里斯卡頓。謝謝你的提問。所以南加州是一個持續疲軟的市場，空置率持續上升，是的，在不同的子市場之後。南加州最柔軟的地區是內陸帝國的中型和小型單位。最強的地區可能是橘郡。洛杉磯雖然低迷，但市場空置率為 4%，因此當需求進入該市場時，請記住，去年需求一直為負，這是非常罕見的情況，因為該市場的需求回來了，您洛杉磯的空置率也可能會產生影響。就我們關注的其他市場而言，美國的疲軟市場包括新澤西州、西雅圖和薩凡納。

Yes. The other thing I would say about Southern California is that don't discount the effect of the port labor issue that was resolved. That took longer, a lot longer than most people thought. And that affects a lot of the people -- a lot of the users in the South Bay immediately adjacent to the ports and the like. So that market can get tight real quick if that port volume comes back.

是的。關於南加州，我要說的另一件事是，不要低估已解決的港口勞動力問題的影響。這花了更長的時間，比大多數人想像的要長得多。這影響了許多人——很多緊鄰港口等的南灣用戶。因此，如果港口數量恢復，市場可能很快就會變得緊張。

I think that the small to medium spaces in the Inland Empire are kind of a mismatch. They're, by and large, the older buildings that were built there when the market was not really designed for the big 500,000 million square foot buildings. And those are -- somebody who wants a lot of space has to go to the Inland Empire. Somebody who wants 100,000 to 200,000 feet has more choices. So that's where the softness is in the Inland Empire.

我認為內陸帝國的中小型空間有點不符。總的來說，它們是在那裡建造的較舊的建築，當時市場還沒有真正為 5000 億平方英尺的大型建築設計。那些想要大量空間的人必須去內陸帝國。想要 100,000 到 200,000 英尺的人有更多選擇。這就是內陸帝國的軟弱之處。

And the next question comes from the line of Vince Tibone with Green Street.

下一個問題來自 Vince Tibone 與 Green Street 的台詞。

Could you discuss the markets of relative strength in your portfolio in terms of demand and market rents? And also, are you seeing any different levels of demand by building size, more broadly? We noticed that occupancy fell the most on a sequential basis, for buildings less than 100,000 square feet, but actually grew for buildings 250,000 to 500,000. So just curious if those trends on occupancy are kind of a fair representation of the demand profile today.

您能否討論一下您的投資組合中在需求和市場租金方面相對強勢的市場？此外，您是否看到更廣泛的建築規模有不同程度的需求？我們注意到，面積小於 100,000 平方英尺的建築物的入住率環比下降幅度最大，但 250,000 至 500,000 平方英尺的建築物的入住率實際上有所增長。所以只是好奇這些入住率趨勢是否能公平地代表當今的需求狀況。

Vince, Chris Caton here. So first, in terms of strength, there is a wide range. And speaking of the benefits of diversity, the strongest markets in the world include Mexico, Texas, parts of the Southeast U.S., Pennsylvania, but also looking out to the Netherlands, Germany and Brazil, Toronto as well, as a strong market. You also have stable markets, Chicago, Southern Florida, Baltimore, D.C.

文斯，克里斯卡頓在這裡。所以第一，從實力上來說，範圍很廣。說到多元化的好處，世界上最強大的市場包括墨西哥、德州、美國東南部部分地區、賓州，但荷蘭、德國和巴西、多倫多也是一個強大的市場。你也有穩定的市場，芝加哥、南佛羅裡達、巴爾的摩、華盛頓特區。

And then really at Southern California alone is really the main weak market. So that would be the range. In terms of size categories, what you see -- what you hear in the marketplace in terms of tours and, in fact, some leases that are getting made, is there's a bit more activity, particularly among self-performing e-com and retailers at the larger end of the spectrum. That would be the main, I'd say, new news in the last 90 days.

然後，僅南加州確實是主要的疲軟市場。這就是範圍。就規模類別而言，你所看到的——你在市場上聽到的旅遊方面的情況，事實上，一些正在簽訂的租賃，是有更多的活動，特別是在自我績效的電子商務和零售商中在光譜的較大端。我想說，這將是過去 90 天內的主要新消息。

And the next question comes from the line of Ki Bin Kim with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Ki Bin Kim。

So going back to your comments about a softer environment. I'm curious if you've seen any changes in CapEx or concessions that might be -- that might not be so apparent in the headline phase rents.

那麼回到你對軟環境的評論。我很好奇您是否看到了資本支出或可能的讓步方面的任何變化——這在標題階段租金中可能不那麼明顯。

And second question, going back to your comments on strategic capital. Where do you think cap rates are selling out at for good assets in good markets? And does that change your view on the level of contributions that you might make going forward?

第二個問題，回到您對策略資本的評論。您認為在良好的市場中，優質資產的資本化率會以什麼價格出售？這是否會改變您對未來可能做出的貢獻程度的看法？

Ki Bin, it's Tim. I'll take the front half of your question just on free rent. We have seen an increase in free rent. I think what's important to remember there is we've had exceedingly low amounts of free rent granted in the last few years. And I would say the current rates that we've seen in this last quarter, and what we're bracing for this year, would still not really be on par with long-term averages. I would say that concession is not fully back to normal. But it is turning up logically in this environment.

基彬，我是提姆。我將回答你問題的前半部分，即關於免租金的問題。我們看到免費租金增加。我認為重要的是要記住，過去幾年我們提供的免費租金非常低。我想說的是，我們在上個季度看到的當前利率以及我們今年準備的利率仍然無法真正達到長期平均值。我想說的是，讓步還沒有完全恢復正常。但在這種環境下，它的出現是合乎邏輯的。

Yes. In terms of where deals are being priced out, I would say 9 months ago, a year ago, there was very little activity, and we were pricing deals in good markets in the U.S. in the low 9 IRRs, albeit not much was happening at those kinds of return expectations. Today, I would say those are 100 basis points lower and there's a lot more volume in that a lot of transactions happening in the marketplace in the low 8s.

是的。就交易定價而言，我想說的是，9 個月前，一年前，活動很少，我們在美國良好市場的內部收益率(IRR) 較低的情況下對交易進行定價，儘管當時發生的情況並不多。今天，我想說的是，這些價格低了 100 個基點，而且市場上發生的大量交易都在 8 個基點以下，交易量也大得多。

Europe, that number -- those numbers would be in the mid-7 IRRs. The reason I'm answering in IRR and not cap rate is that the mark-to-market in different locations is -- significantly vary. For example, for the same IRR, you would be a lot lower cap rate in Southern California than you would be in a market that is leased at market rents.

歐洲，這個數字——這些數字將處於 7 IRR 的中間。我用內部報酬率而不是資本化率來回答的原因是，不同地點的市值計價是有很大的差異。例如，對於相同的 IRR，南加州的資本化率將比以市場租金租賃的市場低得多。

And the next question comes from the line of Tom Catherwood with BTIG.

下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Tom Catherwood。

Hamid, I appreciate your comments on rates and the Fed's actions or inaction serving as the key governor of customer activity and leasing right now. But how are you seeing supply chain disruption, like in Baltimore, and geopolitical risks impacting customer behavior, if at all?

哈米德，我感謝您對利率以及聯準會目前作為客戶活動和租賃的關鍵調控者的作為或不作為的評論。但是，您如何看待供應鏈中斷（例如巴爾的摩）以及影響客戶行為的地緣政治風險（如果有的話）？

I don't think Baltimore has been a big deal in terms of its impact on our business. It's obviously been a big deal to the people who died in the accident and the like, but -- and to traffic patterns. But not to the customer. The customers have enough optionality that they can deal with those kinds of disruptions.

我認為巴爾的摩對我們業務的影響不大。對於在事故等事故中喪生的人來說，這顯然是一件大事，但是——對於交通模式來說也是如此。但不是對客戶。客戶有足夠的選擇權，可以應付此類中斷。

I do think the geopolitical stuff has people a little wigged out, more -- definitely more than last quarter. And look at the interest rates, I mean, we're up at good 70, 80 basis points since the last time we all met. And I think that didn't happen evenly throughout the quarter. I think in the last month that sentiment has changed pretty dramatically.

我確實認為地緣政治問題讓人有點緊張，比上個季度更嚴重。看看利率，我的意思是，自上次我們見面以來，我們已經上漲了 70、80 個基點。我認為整個季度這種情況的發生並不均勻。我認為上個月，人們的情緒發生了相當大的變化。

So I think both of those things are weighing on decisions, particularly if the decisions are discretionary. And people, when there are no choices like they were no choices in Southern California, they always lease more space than they need because they don't want to be held short. And when the opposite is and they have some choices, they take their time because they expect better deals if they wait.

所以我認為這兩件事都會影響決策，特別是如果決策是自由裁量的。人們，當沒有選擇時，就像在南加州沒有選擇一樣，他們總是租用比他們需要的更多的空間，因為他們不想被短缺。當相反的情況發生並且他們有一些選擇時，他們會慢慢來，因為如果他們等待，他們會期望得到更好的交易。

And that difference, even if it's minor, even if it's 5% to the upside and 5% to the downside can be a 10% swing, which are sort of the kind of numbers we're talking about here. So that's very much what happens in the short term. In the long term, demand has to match supply and they can't keep doing that forever. So now if you're going to ask me exactly what that point is, I can't really tell you. But we think it's a matter of quarters, not years.

這種差異，即使很小，即使上行 5%，下行 5%，也可能有 10% 的波動，這就是我們在這裡討論的那種數字。這就是短期內發生的情況。從長遠來看，需求必須與供應相匹配，但他們不能永遠這樣做。所以現在如果你要問我那一點到底是什麼，我真的無法告訴你。但我們認為這只是幾季的問題，而不是幾年的問題。

And the next question comes from the line of Jon Petersen with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自喬恩·彼得森和傑弗里斯的對話。

Maybe one more question on the port of Baltimore. I know it's not a big container traffic port, but have you seen any knock-on demand show up in other East Coast markets given the dislocation that's created?

也許還有一個關於巴爾的摩港的問題。我知道這不是一個大型貨櫃運輸港口，但考慮到由此造成的混亂，您是否看到其他東海岸市場出現了任何連鎖需求？

And then also, maybe a part two, but I know SoCal has been weak over the past year, you've talked about that a lot, and the resets already happened. I guess I'm curious if you could help us contextualize, from where we stand today, if you compare the strength of like SoCal versus the East Coast markets like New Jersey and Pennsylvania, like from where we stand today, which one looks the best over the next year?

然後，也許是第二部分，但我知道南加州在過去的一年裡一直很弱，你已經談論了很多，而且重置已經發生了。我想我很好奇，如果你比較南加州等東海岸市場（如新澤西州和賓夕法尼亞州）的實力，例如從我們今天的立場來看，哪一個看起來最好明年？

Jon, it's Chris Caton. First on Baltimore, you're right. The container traffic there is typically 50,000 TEUs a month. The time horizon of necessary diversions is not thought to be more than a couple of months. By comparison, New York, New Jersey is a 300,000, 350,000 TEU port. And a lot of these diversions have gone to Norfolk. So you've seen some leasing in Norfolk. It's not a market where we operate. So no, there are not knock-on effects.

喬恩，我是克里斯‧卡頓。首先是巴爾的摩，你是對的。那裡的貨櫃運輸量通常為每月 50,000 個標準箱。必要的改道的時間範圍被認為不會超過幾個月。相比之下，新澤西州紐約港的吞吐量為 300,000、350,000 TEU。其中許多轉移都流向了諾福克。所以你在諾福克看到了一些租賃。這不是我們經營的市場。所以不，不會產生連鎖反應。

As it relates to Southern California versus the East Coast, the SoCal market remains fluid, and I believe -- we believe it will underperform. This is a 6-month, 12-month view. Naturally, New Jersey has a completely different set of factors as it relates to rent growth that it's experienced over the last several years in terms of the level of demand that we see in that marketplace, as well as sublease trends. Now it's not the moment to get bullish on New Jersey. Let's see the port agreement, the IOI port agreement get made. But over time, both will be very strong performers after this period of fluidity and uncertainty.

由於它涉及南加州與東海岸，南加州市場仍然不穩定，我相信 - 我們相信它會表現不佳。這是 6 個月、12 個月的視圖。當然，新澤西州有一組完全不同的因素，因為它與過去幾年在該市場的需求水平以及轉租趨勢方面所經歷的租金增長有關。現在還不是看好新澤西的時候。我們看一下端口協議，IOI端口協議制定好了。但隨著時間的推移，在經歷了這段流動性和不確定性的時期後，兩者都將表現得非常強勁。

Yes. The way I would answer that question is that if you limit it to the next 12 months, I would build PA, New Jersey, SoCal. And if you ask me for the longer term, I would go SoCal, New Jersey, PA. And I would put all 3 of them in the upper 1/3 of markets across cycles. Maybe the upper 20% of markets across cycles.

是的。我回答這個問題的方式是，如果你將其限制在接下來的 12 個月內，我會建造賓夕法尼亞州、新澤西州、南加州。如果你問我比較長期的話，我會去南加州、紐澤西州、賓州。我會將它們全部放在各個週期的前 1/3 市場。也許跨週期的前 20% 的市場。

And the next question comes from the line of Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的羅納德‧卡姆德姆 (Ronald Kamdem)。

Just hoping we could put some numbers on the soft demand that you seem to be messaging. So previously, you were forecasting 1.5% of stock of net absorption this year. I'm just wondering what that number has shifted to given what's happened over the past 30 to 45 days. And if you can tie in where you see sort of availability rates and next 12-month market rent growth.

只是希望我們能夠對您似乎正在傳遞的軟需求提供一些數字。此前，您預測今年庫存淨吸收量為 1.5%。我只是想知道考慮到過去 30 到 45 天發生的事情，這個數字已經變成了什麼。如果您能將可用率和未來 12 個月的市場租金成長連結起來。

Yes. Let me take -- we have taken demand down for this year internally from 250 million feet in the U.S. to 175 million, and fundamentally have kept demand at the same level going forward. What we debated that we were going to do is whether we add the 75 million that we missed this year into the subsequent 2 years, and that's where the bid and ask is in our shop. And we're not clairvoyant, so that's -- I'm just giving you the range of how we think about it.

是的。讓我來說一下——我們已將美國今年的內部需求從 2.5 億英尺減少到 1.75 億英尺，並且從根本上將需求保持在同一水平。我們爭論要做的是是否將今年錯過的 7500 萬添加到隨後的兩年中，這就是我們商店中的出價和要價。我們沒有千里眼，所以──我只是給你我們思考的範圍。

Now you answer the second part of your question, Chris.

現在你回答問題的第二部分，克里斯。

Yes. As it relates to market vacancies, we look at vacancies, not availabilities. Availability is a range between 150 and 250 basis points above these figures, depending on the cycle. We have vacancies peaking in the mid-6s later this year. So that's up about 20, 30 basis points versus what we discussed last year.

是的。由於它涉及市場空缺，我們關注的是空缺，而不是可用性。可用性比這些數字高 150 到 250 個基點，具體取決於週期。今年晚些時候，我們的職缺將在 6 年代中期達到頂峰。因此，與我們去年討論的相比，上漲了約 20、30 個基點。

I think what's important to understand in the cycle is the recovery potential in 2025 related to each of the constituent pieces. Hamid walked you through the demand picture. But what's important to recognize is the supply picture. That was a big factor over the last year, 18 months. And the meaningful falloff in supply is marked. It's off 80% from peak. It's off about 1/3 from pre-COVID levels. So we're talking about 35 million square feet of starts in the first quarter.

我認為在這個週期中需要了解的重要一點是與各個組成部分相關的 2025 年復甦潛力。哈米德向您介紹了需求圖。但重要的是要認識到供應情況。這是去年 18 個月的一個重要因素。供應量明顯下降。與峰值相比下降了 80%。與新冠疫情爆發前的水平相比，下降了約 1/3。因此，我們討論的是第一季開工面積為 3500 萬平方英尺。

That annualizes to about 160 million, 170 million square feet. So you're going to actually see this snap later this year and into next year, and those vacancy rates moving noticeably down, likely to move noticeably down from mid-6s towards 5% over the course of next year.

以年計算，面積約 1.6 億至 1.7 億平方英尺。因此，你實際上會在今年稍後和明年看到這種急劇變化，而這些空置率將顯著下降，可能會在明年從 6% 左右顯著下降到 5%。

One other thing I would -- your response has triggered this. Vacancy rates do not literally affect pricing power. I think when you're operating under 5%, you've got a lot of pricing power. Now whether that's 2% or 3%, doesn't matter. You have a lot of pricing power. And even though you might have 2 customers that really need the space, 4 are looking for the space because they just don't want to be caught short down the road. So it just sort of feeds on itself.

我想說的另一件事——你的回應引發了這一點。空置率實際上並不影響定價能力。我認為當你的營運利率低於 5% 時，你就有很大的定價能力。現在無論是2%還是3%，都沒關係。你有很大的定價權。即使您可能有 2 位客戶確實需要該空間，但仍有 4 位客戶正在尋找該空間，因為他們只是不想在路上遇到困難。所以它只是以自身為食。

When the market gets to sort of around 6%, you're at equilibrium. When it gets too much above that, you get into a soft market. And that's a macro analysis, obviously, you've got to apply that market to market in each situation. But that's the way we look at it.

當市場達到 6% 左右時，就處於均衡狀態。當價格高於此水平太多時，您就會進入疲軟的市場。顯然，這是宏觀分析，你必須在每種情況下應用該市場。但這就是我們看待它的方式。

We don't think we're getting into those levels of vacancy that we've seen in other cycles, even during the good times. The worst that we're projecting in this period is almost as good as the best we've seen in other cycles. So that's a key distinction. And we've just been spoiled by market in 3 years where vacancies have been lower than they've ever been. And I think you've heard me say at times that, if the normal range of a market is 1% to 10%, we've been operating in a 12%, 13%, and more recently, I've said we're in an 8% or 9%. And today, I would say we're in probably 6.5%, 7%.

我們認為，即使在經濟繁榮時期，我們也不會達到其他週期中看到的空缺水準。我們在這段時期預測的最壞情況幾乎與我們在其他週期中看到的最好情況一樣好。所以這是一個關鍵的區別。三年來，我們剛剛被市場寵壞了，空缺職位比以往任何時候都低。我想你有時聽我說過，如果市場的正常範圍是 1% 到 10%，那麼我們一直在 12%、13% 的範圍內運營，最近，我說過我們'回复率在8% 或9% 。今天，我想說我們可能處於 6.5%、7% 的水平。

And the next question comes from the line of John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自蒙特婁銀行資本市場部的約翰金 (John Kim)。

I just wanted to get some additional color on the weaker net absorption due to tenants becoming more cost conscious. I'm wondering if this test-the-thesis that industrial rent is somewhat inelastic given it's a small portion of the overall transport and logistic costs? And also, where are tenants going in your view? Are they simply not expanding, or are they downsizing or going to less expensive markets or submarkets?

我只是想對由於租戶變得更加註重成本而導致的淨吸納量變弱提供一些額外的資訊。我想知道，鑑於工業租金只佔整體運輸和物流成本的一小部分，工業租金是否有些缺乏彈性？另外，您認為租戶會去哪裡？他們是根本不擴張，還是在縮小規模或轉向更便宜的市場或次市場？

So we've actually tried to test that theory by looking at whether Southern California's loss has translated into an equal gain in adjacent markets like Vegas and Phoenix. And the answer is, while absorption has increased in those markets, it doesn't fully account for the drop-off in Southern California. So some of that demand has just been deferred. And the question is when will deferred demand convert to real demand. And that's the $64 million question. Is it 1 quarter? Is it 2 quarters? Is it 3 quarters? Don't know. We think it's a couple of quarters.

因此，我們實際上試圖透過觀察南加州的損失是否轉化為維加斯和鳳凰城等鄰近市場的同等收益來檢驗這個理論。答案是，雖然這些市場的吸收量增加，但這並不能完全解釋南加州吸收量的下降。因此，部分需求被延後了。問題是遞延需求何時轉化為實際需求。這就是價值 6400 萬美元的問題。是1季嗎？是2個季度嗎？是3個季度嗎？不知道。我們認為這需要幾個季度。

But it will happen. And particularly the port coming back, that part accounts for over 30% of imports in the U.S., and it's been basically down. So we think it's going to -- that's going to have a dramatic effect. Now we may have missed it already for this Christmas season, I don't know. But certainly, next year, that market is going to come back absent a recession or some kind of geopolitical blow-up.

但這將會發生。尤其是港口回來，這部分占美國進口的30%以上，而且基本上是下降的。所以我們認為這將會產生巨大的影響。現在我們可能已經錯過了這個聖誕節，我不知道。但可以肯定的是，明年，如果沒有經濟衰退或某種地緣政治爆發，這個市場將會回歸。

And John, I might just add, I guess, the way you're putting the equation together, it is what we see that, yes, the rate environment causes this consternation. But as Chris has been highlighting in a number of his answers, as we look at where utilization sits and some of the capacity that's available, it's just the first place that customers can look in terms of finding a way to continue to operate in the short term. That would ostensibly end, and we'll watch for that as utilization rises, and that's what would add to new demand.

約翰，我想我可能會補充一點，你將方程式放在一起的方式，我們看到的是，是的，利率環境導致了這種恐慌。但正如克里斯在他的許多答案中所強調的那樣，當我們研究利用率和一些可用容量時，這只是客戶在尋找短期內繼續運營的方法時可以考慮的第一個地方學期。這表面上將會結束，隨著利用率的上升，我們將關注這一點，這將增加新的需求。

And the next question comes from the line of Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自維克拉姆·馬爾霍特拉 (Vikram Malhotra) 與瑞穗 (Mizuho) 的關係。

Just 2 quick ones. First of all, just on the 3-year outlook. So it sounds like you're saying '24 is a bit lower than you predicted, '25 and '26 is similar. Does that essentially mean the 3-year outlook is kind of adjusted down somewhat?

就2個快的。首先，談談三年的展望。所以聽起來你是在說 '24 比你預測的要低一些，'25 和 '26 是相似的。這是否實質上意味著 3 年前景有所下調？

And then secondly, just to be -- just to give us some numbers. I think what you were saying is the rest of the market rent growth is now, I guess, flattish, but SoCal is down. Do you mind just putting some more numbers on that? Like just how much is SoCal down Q-over-Q or year-over-year versus what other markets in the U.S. are doing?

其次，只是為了給我們一些數字。我認為你所說的是市場其餘部分的租金成長現在持平，但南加州卻下降了。你介意再多加一些數字嗎？例如，與美國其他市場相比，南加州的環比或年減了多少？

Vikram, it's Tim. We're not calling anything on '25 and '26. In my prepared remarks -- or maybe I should say, I think our view would be that our views are upheld. And what I tried to highlight in the opening remarks is that if we get to a little bit lower average occupancy this year, recognizing that our 3-year forecast called for a more normalized level of occupancy in the end anyway, that's where this concept of, well, maybe the adjustment to same-store from an occupancy change is coming a bit more this year than it would otherwise next year. But right now, we would hold out our view for '25 and '26 in terms of aggregate NOI and same store.

維克拉姆，我是蒂姆。我們不會在 25 和 26 號打電話。在我準備好的發言中——或者也許我應該說，我認為我們的觀點是我們的觀點得到了支持。我在開場白中試圖強調的是，如果我們今年的平均入住率稍微低一點，並認識到我們的三年預測最終要求入住率達到更加正常化的水平，這就是這個概念的意義所在。今年因入住率變化而對同店的調整比明年要多一些。但現在，我們將在總 NOI 和同店方面堅持我們對 25 和 26 年的看法。

Now rent change in this very immediate term -- I'm sorry, market rent growth is a little bit below expectations. That will have some effect, but that will be relatively muted through same-store over the period.

現在，租金變化在短期內發生——抱歉，市場租金成長略低於預期。這將會產生一些影響，但在此期間，同店的影響相對較小。

Yes. We -- let's just put some numbers since you asked on it. I think in the Analyst Day, we talked about a 3-year forecast for '24, '25 and '26 rental growth of 3% to -- sorry, 4% to 6%. I would say we're at the lower end of that range and maybe a little bit lower than that when you look at it over a 3-year period. My number, and this is not the official number, my number would be north of 3% and around 4% probably, just shy of 4%.

是的。既然你問了，我們就放一些數字吧。我想在分析師日，我們討論了 24 年、25 年和 26 年租金成長 3% 至 4% 至 6% 的 3 年預測。我想說，我們正處於該範圍的下限，並且可能比三年期間的情況要低一些。我的數字，這不是官方數字，我的數字將高於 3%，可能在 4% 左右，略低於 4%。

And then just on the detailed question on what's happening in market rent growth in the first quarter. Southern California, down 6%, U.S. down about 1%, 1.2%. So when you multiply it through, you can see all other markets are flat.

然後是關於第一季市場租金成長的詳細問題。南加州下降6%，美國下降約1%、1.2%。因此，當你將其相乘時，你會發現所有其他市場都持平。

And the next question comes from the line of Nicholas Yulico with Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的尼古拉斯‧尤利科 (Nicholas Yulico)。

I was just hoping to get a feel for, again, going back to the occupancy guidance, if there's a way that you can give us a feel for how much decline in new leasing commencements you have been embedded in the number this year. Because it sounds like the retention ratios have been better, so leasing velocity on the new side seems subdued. You talked about that leasing demand forecast being down, I think it was 30% on the numbers you gave, the 250 million to 175 million in the U.S. How much is like new leasing in the portfolio going to be down this year for the guidance?

我只是希望再次回到入住率指導，是否有一種方法可以讓我們了解今年新租賃開始數量下降了多少。因為聽起來保留率更好，所以新方的租賃速度似乎較低。您談到租賃需求預測會下降，我認為比您給出的數字下降了 30%，美國為 2.5 億至 1.75 億。 根據指導，今年投資組合中的新租賃會下降多少？

Well, I will -- this is Tim. I'll give it to you in this way. And this might help some of the folks who have struggled looking at the supplemental and some of the stats there, and our messaging. Because what you don't see in the supplemental would be things like, well, how much lease signing occurred in the first quarter. And that was down. Even though you see strong occupancy, that's on commencements, signings were off about 12% in the first quarter. So that's down. You can see that when you look through our pages in our leasing versus occupied statistic where there's only about a 10 basis point difference in those versus a more historical norm of 40 to 50 basis points.

好吧，我會的——這是提姆。我就這樣給你。這可能會幫助那些一直在努力查看補充資料和一些統計數據以及我們的消息的人。因為你在補充資料中看不到諸如第一季簽訂了多少租約之類的內容。那已經下降了。儘管入住率很高，但那是在開業時，第一季的簽約量下降了約 12%。所以就這樣了。您可以看到，當您瀏覽我們的租賃與佔用統計數據頁面時，這些數據僅相差約 10 個基點，而歷史標準則為 40 至 50 個基點。

So those are the pieces a little bit underneath the surface that are guiding our view that the pre-leasing that we're normally looking for at this point, which is ranging 4 to 6 months ahead of commencements, is shy and why we think the average occupancy is ultimately going to be lower.

因此，這些隱藏在表面之下的部分引導著我們的觀點，即我們通常在這一點上尋求的預租（比開工時間提前 4 到 6 個月）是害羞的，以及為什麼我們認為平均入住率最終會降低。

And the next question comes from the line of Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Todd Thomas。

Two questions. I guess, first, can you discuss your rent change expectations for the full year and whether anything has changed there as it pertains to the revisions to your outlook? And it looked like rent change on signings was trending in the low 70% range through February, which was higher than the rent change in the quarter. I guess, any thoughts about rent change -- trends relative to this quarter and for the year?

兩個問題。我想，首先，您能否討論一下您對全年租金變化的預期，以及與您的前景修改有關的情況是否發生了變化？在整個 2 月份，簽約租金變化似乎一直在 70% 的低位範圍內，高於本季的租金變動。我想，對於租金變化（相對於本季和今年的趨勢）有什麼想法嗎？

And then my second question, in terms of the occupancy breakout by unit size and your comments about larger and smaller spaces earlier in the call, do you expect a recovery later in the year to be broad-based from a space or unit size? Or do you expect to see more strength or maybe more persistent weakness in either the larger or smaller unit size as conditions tighten up in a few quarters?

然後是我的第二個問題，就單位面積的入住率突破以及您在電話會議早些時候對更大和更小的空間的評論而言，您是否預計今年晚些時候的空間或單位面積的複蘇會廣泛？或者，隨著幾季情況的收緊，您是否預計較大或較小的單位規模會出現更大的優勢或可能更持久的疲軟？

Todd, it's Tim, yes. On rent change, so as mentioned, we had 67% start in the quarter. The signings were 70%. So you do get a sense that it can move up and down each quarter. You may also recall, we had very strong rent change on signings in Q4, which may leave you wondering why didn't that show up here in Q1 on the commencements. And that's speaking to just how long this pre-leasing period can be. It can be more than just 3 months. And for that reason, I expect we'll probably see rent change right now, my view would be it's going to be above Q1, in Q2, and then also higher on the full year, in the low to mid-70s, over 2024 is our current view.

托德，是提姆，是的。關於租金變化，如前面所提到的，本季我們有 67% 的開工率。簽約率為70%。所以你確實感覺到它每季都會上下波動。您可能還記得，我們​​在第四季度的簽約中發生了非常強勁的租金變化，這可能會讓您想知道為什麼在第一季的開工典禮上沒有這種情況。這說明了預租期可以有多長。可能不止3個月。出於這個原因，我預計我們現在可能會看到租金變化，我的觀點是，第二季度租金將高於第一季度，然後全年也會更高，在 2024 年低至 70 年代中期是我們目前的觀點。

As it relates to the contours, I think I'd first point you to the market color that was given earlier as illustrating the shape of the recovery going forward. As it pertains to different size categories, there is more vacancy and more availability in the over 500,000 category, but that's also where, in the last 90 days, we've seen a little bit of a pickup. So I think we'll see size categories advancing at a similar pace over the course of the year, and there'll be real differentiation across the different markets.

由於它與輪廓相關，我想我首先要向您指出之前給出的市場顏色，以說明未來復甦的形狀。由於它涉及不同的尺寸類別，超過 500,000 個類別的空置率和可用性更高，但這也是在過去 90 天內我們看到的一些回升的地方。因此，我認為我們將看到尺寸類別在這一年中以類似的速度前進，並且不同市場之間將存在真正的差異。

And our final question comes from the line of Vince Tibone with Green Street.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Vince Tibone 與 Green Street 的台詞。

I was just curious, are you seeing any other landlords gain to offer more free rent or tenant allowances to try to attract to their vacancies?

我只是很好奇，您是否看到其他房東透過提供更多免費租金或租戶津貼來吸引他們的空缺？

A really interesting question. So this is what has really surprised me from this cycle. We are getting calls from merchant developers that have had financing, have completed projects and are getting panicked. And for us to look at those opportunities. Boy, we're looking at those opportunities. Because that's where a good balance sheet and that's where being on your front foot is all about.

一個非常有趣的問題。所以這就是這個週期中真正讓我驚訝的地方。我們接到商業開發商的電話，他們已經獲得融資、完成了項目，並且感到恐慌。讓我們看看這些機會。天哪，我們正在尋找這些機會。因為這就是良好的資產負債表，也是維持領先的關鍵所在。

I think there were a lot of people in this business that thought, we'll just get some financing at 0 cost and throw up some buildings and it will lease. And I think that's what accounted for some of that over-exuberance on the development side. And I think we're going to end up being beneficiaries of that, and I'm seeing that real time. So yes, I think people who are merchant developers and do not have the financial wherewithal are acting in a somewhat distressed way sooner than I would have guessed. And we're happy about that.

我想這個行業有很多人都想，我們只需以零成本獲得一些融資，然後建造一些建築物，然後就可以出租了。我認為這就是開發方面過度繁榮的部分原因。我認為我們最終將成為受益者，我正在實時看到這一點。所以，是的，我認為那些沒有財力的商業開發商的人比我想像的要早一些陷入困境。我們對此感到高興。

So that was the last question, Vince. So with that, I want to thank you for your interest. And this is part of a long story, and we'll be there next quarter to tell you about the following chapters of it. Take care. Bye-bye.

這是最後一個問題，文斯。因此，我要感謝您的關注。這是一個很長的故事的一部分，我們將在下個季度向您介紹它的以下章節。小心。再見。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。