Prologis Inc (PLD) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greeting and welcome to the Prologis Q3 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加 Prologis 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce you to your host, Justin Meng, SVP, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you, Justin. You may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，高級副總裁兼投資者關係主管賈斯汀·孟。謝謝你，賈斯汀。你可以開始了。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter of 2024 earnings conference call. The supplemental document is available on our website at prologis.com under Investor Relations. I'd like to state that this conference call will contain forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the market and industry in which Prologis operates, as well as management's beliefs and assumptions.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。補充文件可在我們的網站 prologis.com 的「投資者關係」下取得。我想聲明的是，本次電話會議將包含聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。這些陳述是基於對普洛斯經營所在市場和行業的當前預期、估計和預測，以及管理層的信念和假設。

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance, and actual operating results may be affected by a variety of factors. For a list of those factors, please refer to the forward-looking statement notice in our 10-K and other SEC filings.

前瞻性陳述並非績效保證，實際經營績效可能會受到多種因素的影響。有關這些因素的列表，請參閱我們的 10-K 和其他 SEC 文件中的前瞻性聲明通知。

Additionally, our third quarter earnings press release and supplemental do contain financial measures such as FFO and EBITDA, that are non-GAAP. And in accordance with Reg G, we have provided a reconciliation to those measures.

此外，我們的第三季財報新聞稿和補充資料確實包含非 GAAP 財務指標，例如 FFO 和 EBITDA。根據 Reg G，我們對這些措施進行了調節。

I'd like to welcome Tim Arndt, our CFO, who will cover results, real-time market conditions, and guidance. Hamid Moghadam, our CEO; Dan Letter, President; and Chris Caton, Managing Director, are also with us today.

我要歡迎我們的財務長 Tim Arndt，他將介紹業績、即時市場狀況和指導。 Hamid Moghadam，我們的執行長；丹‧萊特，總裁；董事總經理 Chris Caton 今天也與我們同在。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

這樣，我就把電話轉給提姆。

Thank you, gentlemen, and welcome to everybody joining our call. Before diving into, I'd like to share our concern for those affected by the recent hurricanes in the US and Europe that impacted our employees, customers and communities. Thankfully, our teams are safe and their proactive customer outreach and assistance has been outstanding. Our property sustained limited damage for such strong storms.

謝謝你們，先生們，歡迎大家加入我們的電話會議。在深入探討之前，我想先表達我們對美國和歐洲最近遭受颶風影響的人們的擔憂，這些颶風影響了我們的員工、客戶和社區。值得慶幸的是，我們的團隊很安全，他們積極主動的客戶外展和幫助也非常出色。如此強烈的風暴對我們的財產造成的損害有限。

Overall, we are pleased with our operating and financial results as the third quarter played out to our expectations. Well occupancy and rent softened against a backdrop of positive yet subdued demand, we continue to deliver impressive net effective rent change due to the still powerful lease mark to market embedded in our portfolio, which bridges us through this soft patch to the next cycle of rent growth.

整體而言，我們對我們的營運和財務表現感到滿意，因為第三季的表現符合我們的預期。在需求積極但疲軟的背景下，入住率和租金走軟，我們繼續提供令人印象深刻的淨有效租金變化，因為我們的投資組合中仍然具有強大的市場租賃標記，這為我們度過了這一疲軟階段，進入下一個租金週期提供了橋樑生長。

Turning to the quarter, core FFO, excluding net promote expense, was $1.45 per share and included net promoters was $1.43 per share. These results were slightly ahead of our forecast and the quarter included approximately $0.03 of income from a Prologis ventures exit. Period ending occupancy was 96.2% of our share, nearly 300 basis points above the market as the flight to quality continues. Net effective rent change was 68% and cash rent change was 44%. We captured over $90 million of an ally by rolling leases up to market.

談到本季度，核心 FFO（不包括淨促銷費用）為每股 1.45 美元，包括淨促銷費用為每股 1.43 美元。這些結果略高於我們的預測，該季度包括來自 Prologis Ventures 退出的約 0.03 美元收入。期末入住率佔市場份額的 96.2%，比市場高出近 300 個基點，因為品質的追求仍在繼續。淨有效租金變動為 68%，現金租金變動為 44%。透過將租賃推向市場，我們獲得了超過 9000 萬美元的盟友。

The portfolio produced net effective in cash same-store growth of 6.2% and 7.2%, respectively. Revenues were impacted by approximately 35 basis points of bad debt, which is elevated from our normal 15 to 20 basis points. While bankruptcy filings are on the rise broadly, the good news is that the space we've taken back as a result has had embedded rental upside of over 60%.

此投資組合的同店現金淨有效成長分別為 6.2% 及 7.2%。收入受到約 35 個基點壞帳的影響，高於我們正常的 15 至 20 個基點。雖然破產申請數量普遍增加，但好消息是，我們因此收回的空間已使租金上漲了 60% 以上。

Our overall portfolio, lease mark-to-market finished the quarter at 34%, representing $1.6 billion of potential NOI. Finally, on the balance sheet, we raised $4.6 billion of new debt across Prologis center funds had a weighted average rate of 4.6% and the maturity of approximately nine years.

我們的整體投資組合（按市值計算的租賃）本季結束時為 34%，相當於 16 億美元的潛在 NOI。最後，在資產負債表上，我們透過 Prologis 中心基金籌集了 46 億美元的新債務，加權平均利率為 4.6%，期限約為 9 年。

In terms of deployment, we had a very active quarter. We started over $0.5 billion in development projects, including incremental capital to an existing data center development now pre-leased to a hyperscale customer with a turnkey buildout. We expanded our land bank, driving our potential development opportunity over $40 billion, which now includes our first two projects in India that support over 5 million square feet of new development.

在部署方面，我們度過了一個非常活躍的季度。我們啟動了超過 5 億美元的開發項目，包括對現有資料中心開發項目的增量資本，該資料中心現已預租給超大規模客戶並進行交鑰匙擴建。我們擴大了土地儲備，推動了超過 400 億美元的潛在開發機會，其中現在包括我們在印度的前兩個項目，支援超過 500 萬平方英尺的新開發項目。

We deployed over $1.4 billion in third-party acquisitions. Here to date, we have acquired over 14 million square feet of strategic assets at an estimated 20% discount to replacement costs. We started building on 54 megawatts of new energy systems. Our momentum here is building, and we continue to have and we expect to have generation capacity well over 600 megawatts at the end of this year, with good line of sight to our 1 gigawatt goal by the end of 2025.

我們在第三方收購中投入了超過 14 億美元。迄今為止，我們已以估計重置成本 20% 的折扣收購了超過 1,400 萬平方英尺的策略資產。我們開始建造 54 兆瓦的新能源系統。我們的勢頭正在增強，我們將繼續保持發電能力，預計今年年底發電能力將遠遠超過 600 兆瓦，到 2025 年底我們預計將實現 1 吉瓦的目標。

As mentioned, Prologis ventures had a successful exit of an early round investment in the Japanese workforce solution, Timee. This produced a 9 times multiple on our investment, realizing a 65% IRR. Beyond the economics, our strategy and supply chain venture investing has delivered valuable insights for Prologis and our customer.

如前所述，Prologis Ventures 成功退出了對日本勞動力解決方案 Timee 的早期投資。這使我們的投資實現了 9 倍的成長，實現了 65% 的 IRR。除了經濟學之外，我們的策略和供應鏈風險投資也為普洛斯和我們的客戶提供了寶貴的見解。

Finally, FIBRA Prologis, our strategic capital vehicle in Mexico, successfully closed a tender for the shares of Terrafina, which is now owns nearly 80% enhancing its leadership position in one of our best performing and highest growth global markets.

最後，我們在墨西哥的策略資本工具 FIBRA Prologis 成功完成了對 Terrafina 股份的投標，Terrafina 目前擁有近 80% 的股份，鞏固了其在我們表現最佳、成長最快的全球市場之一的領導地位。

Turning to the operating environment, condition remained soft in many of our markets. And as we've described over the last few quarters, this is despite healthy GDP and consumption growth. We ascribed a weaker relationship between economic output and industrial absorption to the availability built into the supply chain through COVID, originally earmarked for resiliency, but now available to operators as a source for cost containment.

談到經營環境，我們許多市場的狀況仍然疲軟。正如我們在過去幾個季度所描述的，儘管國內生產毛額和消費成長健康，但情況仍然如此。我們將經濟產出和工業吸收之間的較弱關係歸因於透過新冠疫情建立的供應鏈的可用性，最初指定用於彈性，但現在可供營運商作為成本控制的來源。

But ultimately, the ability to rely on this axis is diminishing as utilization reaches a level that will force decision making and expansion, the pace of which will vary by market. Many customers are making progress in reducing this capacity through growth, while others are gaining efficiencies through consolidation. In the end, it's all serving to hold net absorption below pre-COVID levels impacting rents. Globally, we estimate that market rents decreased approximately 3% this quarter and roughly half this amount when excluding Southern California.

但最終，隨著利用率達到迫使決策和擴張的水平，依賴該軸的能力正在減弱，而其速度將因市場而異。許多客戶正在透過成長在減少產能方面取得進展，而其他客戶則透過整合來提高效率。最終，這一切都有助於將淨吸收量保持在疫情前影響租金的水平以下。在全球範圍內，我們估計本季市場租金下降了約 3%，如果不包括南加州，則下降幅度約為一半。

As we noted before, Southern California will take the longest to reach equilibrium. While activity has improved the remaining amount of excess capacity will simply take time to work through. That said, it's important to keep this context. Our [SoCal] portfolio generated 84% rent change on commencements this quarter, even as it led the globe in market rent decline, a great example of the interplay between the spot reduction in rents against our lease mark to market.

正如我們之前指出的，南加州將需要最長的時間才能達到平衡。儘管經濟活動有所改善，但剩餘的過剩產能仍需要時間來解決。也就是說，保留這種背景很重要。我們的[南加州]投資組合在本季開始時產生了84% 的租金變化，儘管它在市場租金下降方面領先全球，這是租金現貨下降與我們的市場租賃標記之間相互作用的一個很好的例子。

This has us well-positioned to navigate the cyclical downturn and taking it a step further, we see the structural investment case for SoCal is strengthening with new supply barriers that come into effect from recently enacted legislation and continued focus on carbon emissions.

這使我們能夠很好地應對週期性衰退，並更進一步，我們看到南加州的結構性投資案例正在加強，新的供應壁壘因最近頒布的立法而生效，並且持續關注碳排放。

As always, the rent picture is mixed and there remain many markets that are either flat on rent or positive such as Houston, Atlanta, Nashville, Northern Europe, and of course, [that] TAM remains very strong. Overall bottoming process is underway and we expect demand to remain soft in the near term. Looking ahead, market vacancy is at or near its peak will hover there as utilization improves and global rents will bottom sometime mid next year.

像往常一樣，租金情況好壞參半，仍然有許多市場租金持平或上漲，例如休士頓、亞特蘭大、納許維爾、北歐，當然，TAM 仍然非常強勁。整體觸底過程正在進行中，我們預計近期需求將保持疲軟。展望未來，隨著利用率的提高以及全球租金將於明年年中某個時候觸底，市場空置率將處於或接近高峰。

It stands to reason then that the near term growth will be affected by the path market rents and occupancy have already taken. We remain very positive on the outlook for our business as vacancies are still low in the context of history, starts are down significantly, and supply deliveries are falling below their pre-COVID levels. Additionally, with replacement cost rents approximately 15% above today's market, even with land values mark down by a third from their peak, the long-term growth trajectory remains highly favorable.

照理說，短期成長將受到市場租金和入住率已經採取的路徑的影響。我們對我們的業務前景仍然非常樂觀，因為空缺率在歷史背景下仍然很低，開工率大幅下降，供應交付量也低於新冠疫情前的水平。此外，儘管土地價值較高峰下降了三分之一，但重置成本租金比當今市場高出約 15%，長期成長軌跡仍然非常有利。

Moving on to capital markets, we've seen improved pricing and activity in the transaction market. And values continue to grow. US and European values again increased approximately 1% in the quarter, and Mexico saw an impressive 2.2% with a bottom's seemingly in our strategic capital business had its most productive quarter in the last two years, raising unmet $460 million.

轉向資本市場，我們看到交易市場的定價和活動有所改善。並且價值不斷增長。美國和歐洲的價值在本季度再次增長了約1%，而墨西哥的價值增長了2.2%，令人印象深刻，我們的戰略資本業務似乎迎來了過去兩年來最富有成效的季度，籌集了未滿足的4.6 億美元。

Overall, it appears private market sentiment is stronger than the public markets. During the quarter, transaction volumes increased an unlevered IRRs compressed another 25 basis points. In terms of guidance, which I'll review at our share, we are tightening our forecast for average occupancy to a range of 96% to 96.5% and also tightening our forecast for cash same-store growth to a range of 6.5% to 7%.

整體而言，私人市場情緒似乎強於公開市場。本季，交易量增加，無槓桿 IRR 又壓縮了 25 個基點。在指導方面（我將在我們的分享中回顧），我們將平均入住率的預測收緊至 96% 至 96.5% 的範圍，並將同店現金增長的預測收緊至 6.5% 至 7% 的範圍。 %。

Our net effective same-store growth is for a range of 5.5% to 6%, which has been tightened and reduced modestly at the midpoint for the increased non-cash write-offs we expect from higher bankruptcies in the balance of the year.

我們的同店淨有效增長範圍為 5.5% 至 6%，由於我們預計今年剩餘時間破產數量增加，非現金沖銷將增加，這一增長在中點已收緊並小幅下降。

We are tightening and slightly reducing our G&A guidance to a range of $415 million to $425 million and tightening our range for strategic capital revenue to $525 million to $535 million. We are reducing our overall development starts guidance to a range of $1.75 billion to $2.25 billion, which reflects both slow decision making and build to suits and disciplined on our part in deferring new spec development and amid stubborn demand.

我們正在收緊並略微降低 G&A 指導，將其範圍縮小至 4.15 億至 4.25 億美元，並將戰略資本收入範圍縮小至 5.25 億至 5.35 億美元。我們正在將整體開發啟動指導降低至 17.5 億美元至 22.5 億美元的範圍，這反映出決策緩慢、按需構建以及我們在推遲新規格開發和需求頑強的情況下的紀律性。

Of course, we are the best position to react quickly as conditions warrant with approximately $8 billion of pad ready development opportunities. We see attractive acquisition opportunities in the market and are increasing our guidance here, seeking our range up to $1.75 billion to $2.25 billion. And finally, the forecast for our contribution and disposition activity is increasing to a new range of $3 billion to $4 billion, reflecting the improving transaction market and strong your fund raising and strategic capital.

當然，我們最有能力在條件允許的情況下迅速做出反應，並提供約 80 億美元的現成開發機會。我們看到市場上有吸引力的收購機會，並正在提高我們的指導，尋求將收購範圍提高到 17.5 億美元至 22.5 億美元。最後，我們對出資和處置活動的預測將增加到 30 億美元至 40 億美元的新範圍，反映出交易市場的改善以及您的融資和策略資本的增強。

The positive spread between our buying and selling IRRs year to date has been approximately 100 basis points. Putting that altogether, we are increasing our GAAP earnings to a range of $3.35 to $3.45 per share. Core FFO, including net promote expense will range between $5.42 and $5.46 per share, while core FFO excluding net promote expense will range between $5.49 and $5.53 per share or $0.01 increase from our prior guidance. [For FFO], obviously excludes our development gain guidance, but it's noteworthy to highlight our increased to a new range of $375 million to $425 million.

今年迄今為止，我們的買賣 IRR 之間的正利差約為 100 個基點。總而言之，我們將 GAAP 收益提高至每股 3.35 美元至 3.45 美元。核心 FFO（包括淨推廣費用）將在每股 5.42 美元至 5.46 美元之間，而不包括淨推廣費用的核心 FFO 將在每股 5.49 美元至 5.53 美元之間，比我們之前的指導增加 0.01 美元。 [對於 FFO]，顯然不包括我們的發展增益指導，但值得注意的是我們增加到了 3.75 億美元至 4.25 億美元的新範圍。

In closing, we had a very productive quarter in which we delivered strong operating results, high occupancy, high rent change, and meaningful same-store growth in the challenging market environment. Alongside that performance, it's clear that we are focused on the future as evidenced in our very active deployment standing our global reach and product offering.

最後，我們度過了一個非常有成效的季度，在充滿挑戰的市場環境中，我們實現了強勁的經營業績、高入住率、高租金變化以及有意義的同店成長。除了這種表現之外，很明顯我們還專注於未來，這一點從我們非常積極的部署以及我們的全球影響力和產品供應中得到了證明。

This company is well positioned to capitalize on the structural demand for logistics, real estate and our focus on operational excellence, customer centricity, and value creation will continue to drive strong performance across all market cycles. Consistent with this drive for excellence, I'd be remiss to not highlights our annual GROUNDBREAKERS form, which we just held in London. It featured some of the most innovative companies of our day, and we heard from the likes of the legendary Fred Smith of FedEx and sir, Tony Blair amongst many others.

該公司處於有利地位，能夠充分利用物流、房地產的結構性需求，並且我們對卓越營運、以客戶為中心和價值創造的關注將繼續推動所有市場週期的強勁業績。與這種追求卓越的動力相一致，如果我不強調我們剛在倫敦舉行的年度 GROUNDBREAKERS 表格，那就太失職了。它匯集了當今一些最具創新性的公司，我們聽到了聯邦快遞傳奇人物弗雷德·史密斯和托尼·布萊爾先生等許多人的來信。

GROUNDBREAKERS deepens our customer relationships and builds upon our thought leadership across the supply chain and its emerging foundation for clean energy and digital infrastructure. It's great to see so many of you there, and a replay of the event is available on our website.

GROUNDBREAKERS 加深了我們的客戶關係，並建立在我們整個供應鏈的思想領導及其清潔能源和數位基礎設施的新興基礎之上。很高興在那裡見到這麼多人，我們的網站上可以重播活動。

With that, I'll hand the call back to the operator for your questions. Unfortunately, Hamid is feeling under the weather today, and while he is on the call, you may be limited in his responses. Operator.

這樣，我會將電話轉給接線員詢問您的問題。不幸的是，哈米德今天感覺不太舒服，當他接聽電話時，您的反應可能會受到限制。操作員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Tom Catherwood, BTIG.

湯姆·凱瑟伍德，BT​​IG。

Thank you and good morning, everybody. To Tim, you noted mixed signals and industrial markets. Vacancies are up obviously. Customers are taking longer to make decisions. And on the macro side, obviously, we see if the consumer continues to be stretched. But you also noted, there were strong leasing activity in Q3. You raised acquisition guidance now for the second straight quarter.

謝謝大家，早安。對於蒂姆，您注意到了混合信號和工業市場。職位空缺明顯增加。客戶需要更長的時間才能做出決定。顯然，在宏觀方面，我們會觀察消費者是否繼續捉襟見肘。但您也注意到，第三季的租賃活動強勁。您現在連續第二個季度提高了收購指導。

So kind of how do we square these two kind of seemingly divergent topics together? And what do you think it takes for customers? What kind of catalyst it takes for customers to move from hesitant when it comes taking space to more active as we move into '25?

那我們要如何將這兩個看似不同的主題結合在一起呢？您認為客戶需要什麼？當我們進入 25 世紀時，需要什麼樣的催化劑才能讓客戶在佔用空間時猶豫不決，變得更加積極主動？

Thanks, Tom. Thanks for the question. And if I just start with the acquisitions guidance, I would probably read that as our confidence in the long term for starters. We're very engaged in the business. We are very much looking at markets that we seek to build additional scale and deepen our presence. And our teams are scouring the market in that regard looking for opportunities.

謝謝，湯姆。謝謝你的提問。如果我只是從收購指導開始，我可能會將其解讀為我們對初學者的長期信心。我們非常熱衷於這項業務。我們非常關注尋求擴大規模並深化業務的市場。我們的團隊正在這方面搜尋市場尋找機會。

One thing implicit in my remarks that I'd like you to really here is we're not really a buyer at market IRRs. We are typically looking for unusual constructs of market deals, deals that we source where we're looking for a premium to [premium] IRR, such as those who've seen our appraisals. So take that as you are looking at our activity in the acquisitions market.

我希望你們真正在我的言論中隱含的一件事是，我們不是市場內部報酬率的真正買家。我們通常會尋找不尋常的市場交易結構，我們在尋找[溢價] IRR 溢價時尋找的交易，例如那些看過我們評估的人。因此，當您查看我們在收購市場上的活動時，請考慮這一點。

In the near term, we just recognize that utilization has really been the culprits of keeping a lid on demand. And the message we're trying to send here is that, that has an end to it. Ultimately, customers will work through what's available to them, and it's going to be sort of a spillover out of utilization into growth and occupancy.

在短期內，我們只是認識到利用率確實是限制需求的罪魁禍首。我們想在這裡傳達的訊息是，事情已經結束了。最終，客戶將利用他們可用的資源，這將是一種從利用率到成長和入住率的溢出效應。

Thank you, Tom. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，湯姆。接線員，下一個問題。

Vikram Malhotra, Mizuho.

維克拉姆·馬爾霍特拉，瑞穗。

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I guess just maybe another one to perhaps square. You talked about the bottoming process in the call in the press release, I guess bottoming not bottom, but do you mind sort of squaring that with two things? One, just your updated view on market rent growth over the next 12 months and two, some just reducing development starts. I thought the plan originally was to keep starts high so that when the market inflex in '25, you sort of have the product ready, can you just square that bottoming in those two things? Thanks so much.

早安.感謝您提出問題。我想也許只是另一個正方形。您在新聞稿的電話會議中談到了觸底過程，我想是觸底而不是觸底，但您介意將其與兩件事相提並論嗎？一是您對未來 12 個月市場租金成長的最新看法，二是一些只是減少了開發開工率。我認為最初的計劃是保持高起點，這樣當 25 年市場出現轉折點時，你就已經準備好了產品，你能在這兩件事上達到底部嗎？非常感謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Vikram. Let me start with your first question, which was squaring the rent growth in the near term here. And let me highlight that we are near or in an inflection period right now. And this is a time when forecasts have very high variability. So the quick answer to the near term view on rents is pretty much in line with where we were 90 days ago. Customers are very engaged, but they're just not making decisions. So we expect this softness in rents to continue throughout this period.

是的。謝謝，維克拉姆。讓我從你的第一個問題開始，也就是近期租金成長的平方。讓我強調一下，我們現在正接近或處於拐點期。這是預測變化非常大的時期。因此，對近期租金看法的快速答案與 90 天前的情況基本一致。客戶非常積極參與，但他們只是不做出決定。因此，我們預計在此期間租金將持續疲軟。

But when we actually think about this is for the long term, 90% of our leases roll after the next 12 months. So even if rents fluctuate minus 3%, plus 3%, it doesn't really matter. It won't have significant impact on our long-term earnings nor the value of the business. And the real driver for rent growth is replacement cost to rents, which Tim said in his script, replacement cost rents are 15% higher than today's market rents.

但當我們真正從長遠考慮時，我們 90% 的租賃會在接下來的 12 個月後滾動。所以即使租金波動負3%，加上3%，也沒什麼關係。它不會對我們的長期收益或業務價值產生重大影響。而租金成長的真正驅動力是租金的重置成本，提姆在劇本中表示，重置成本租金比今天的市場租金高出15%。

So the gap between the market rents and the replacement cost rents will ultimately lead to this rent growth. And so if you think about us being at a peak vacancy or close to peak vacancy, which we expect to endure for a certain segment portion, maybe throughout '25 with a recovery in that vacancy emerging late next year and then accelerating thereafter.

因此，市場租金與重置成本租金之間的差距最終將導致租金成長。因此，如果你考慮到我們正處於空缺高峰或接近空缺高峰，我們預計在某個細分市場中將持續這種情況，也許整個 25 年，該空缺將在明年年底出現復甦，然後加速。

So we know the trend and we'll capture that rent growth in the longer term. We just don't necessarily know the slope of that recovery and it's really hard to peg that. And honestly, when it comes down to it, guessing on the short term has never been one of our strong suits. We're running Prologis for the long term.

因此，我們了解趨勢，我們將捕捉長期租金成長的趨勢。我們只是不一定知道復甦的斜率，而且很難確定這一點。老實說，歸根結底，短期猜測從來都不是我們的強項之一。我們長期經營普洛斯。

And the second part of your question had to do with our development starts. Development starts -- so we pushed those off -- Tim talked about discipline in the script here. Build-to-suits, while the pipeline remains pretty strong, it's just flat. Feel like for the last four quarters, we've been talking about customers kicking the can down the road. That's continuing and those build-to-suits are just moving into next year. And then from a spend perspective, we are going to maintain that discipline that we've always maintained.

你問題的第二部分與我們的開發開始有關。開發開始了——所以我們推遲了——蒂姆在這裡談到了劇本中的紀律。客製化產品雖然通路仍然相當強勁，但只是持平。感覺就像在過去的四個季度裡，我們一直在談論客戶把罐子踢到路上。這種情況仍在繼續，這些訂製服裝剛剛進入明年。然後從支出的角度來看，我們將保持我們一直保持的紀律。

We don't want to be building into the market fundamentals in many of these markets today, but that's not a categorical. So for example, this quarter we are actually started two buildings in Atlanta. Atlanta is headline vacancy is 9%. But then we look at the infill sites that we have with no competition. We're only 150 basis points vacant. They don't have any spec risk, so we decided to move forward to that. So we move forward with that building or those two buildings, so we could be building into those dirt of completions a year out, like we've been talking about doing.

我們不想在今天的許多市場中建立市場基本面，但這並不是絕對的。例如，本季度我們實際上在亞特蘭大啟動了兩棟建築。亞特蘭大的主要空置率為 9%。但接下來我們會看看我們沒有競爭的填充網站。我們只有 150 個基點空缺。它們沒有任何規格風險，因此我們決定繼續這樣做。因此，我們繼續推進那棟或這兩棟大樓的建設，這樣我們就可以在一年後的竣工工作中進行建設，就像我們一直在談論的那樣。

So it is happening here and there. We just see that accelerating more in the coming quarters. And then let me finish with the fact that we have a very large development book right now, [5.5 billion] under way on a Prologis share. And that's 33 million square feet of development underway. And then we also had $40 billion worth of opportunities right now in our land bank. And so and actually 30% of that land is entitled ready to go. And then two-thirds of that is actually pad ready, which means we really truncated the timeframes to go vertical with those sites.

所以這種事到處都在發生。我們只是看到未來幾季會加速成長。最後，我要說的是，我們現在有一個非常大的開發計劃，[55 億] 正在 Prologis 股份上進行。目前正在開發的面積為 3,300 萬平方英尺。我們的土地儲備目前還擁有價值 400 億美元的機會。因此，實際上 30% 的土地已有權隨時使用。其中三分之二實際上已準備就緒，這意味著我們確實縮短了與這些網站垂直發展的時間範圍。

So we're going to be able to execute the strategy just like we talked about over the last several quarters. We're just -- you're going to see that happen a little bit later.

因此，我們將能夠執行該策略，就像我們在過去幾個季度中討論的那樣。我們只是——稍後你就會看到這種情況發生。

Thank you, Vikram. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，維克拉姆。接線員，下一個問題。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

約翰金 (John Kim)，BMO 資本市場。

Thank you and good morning. So it's looks like a $0.06 beat on a core FFO this quarter. I think, Tim, you mentioned part of that was the Prologis ventures exit that you had. And also on our numbers, you had better than expected currency gains and income taxes. I wanted to make sure that was the case, but also why only raised full-year guidance by [$0.01] given the peak you had during this call quarter?

謝謝你，早安。因此，本季核心 FFO 看起來比核心 FFO 低 0.06 美元。我想，提姆，你提到其中一部分是你所擁有的普洛斯創投退出。從我們的數據來看，貨幣收益和所得稅也比預期好。我想確保情況確實如此，但考慮到本季度的峰值，為什麼只將全年指導提高了 [0.01 美元]？

Hey, John, thanks for the question. I would say you'll see it as a beat. We don't see it as a beat. These are events that we were forecasting for the year and for the quarter. And I would also highlight that the FX gains I think you're seeing in the P&L might be better off line, but there's complication between [on realized] and unrealized. You're probably seeing a lot of unrealized there and you have to flow through to FFO statement to understand what's actually realized.

嘿，約翰，謝謝你的提問。我想說你會把它看成一個節拍。我們不認為這是一個節拍。這些是我們對今年和本季的預測事件。我還要強調的是，我認為您在損益表中看到的外匯收益可能會更好，但[已實現]和未實現之間存在複雜性。您可能會看到很多未實現的內容，並且必須查看 FFO 語句才能了解實際實現的內容。

Suffice it to say very proudly say you're never going to hear effects as variance item in our FFO as we hedge all of our FFO earnings, as I think you know. There was an item in tax where we had some sale of investment tax credits in the quarter. We'll have fewer of those in the following quarter. But once again, that together with the ventures gains, we're all previously contemplated in our guidance.

我可以非常自豪地說，您永遠不會聽到我們 FFO 中差異項目的影響，因為我們對沖了所有 FFO 收益，我想您也知道。在稅收方面，我們在本季出售了一些投資稅收抵免的項目。下個季度我們的數量將會減少。但再一次，我們先前的指導中已經考慮到了創投的收益。

Thank you, John. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，約翰。接線員，下一個問題。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa，Evercore ISI。

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. I guess on page 12, you guys break out your ending occupancy by unit size and I noticed sequentially there was a much bigger drop on the spaces that we're kind of below [250]. So I'm just wondering if you can sort of speak to the strength of the bigger boxes, maybe the softness in the weaker.

是的，謝謝。早安.我想在第 12 頁上，你們按單元大小細分了最終佔用率，我注意到，我們的空間數量連續下降了很多，低於 [250]。所以我只是想知道你是否可以談談較大盒子的強度，也許較弱盒子的柔軟度。

And then just on the Southern California, I notice that your lease percentage in SoCal went up about 120 basis points sequentially. So any comments just around Southern California demand either by product type or LA versus Inland Empire would be helpful. Thanks.

然後就南加州而言，我注意到南加州的租賃百分比連續上升了約 120 個基點。因此，任何關於南加州需求的評論，無論是按產品類型還是洛杉磯與內陸帝國的需求，都會有所幫助。謝謝。

It's Chris Caton. Thank you for the question. I'll start with Southern California, and I think a couple of us will jump in on different trends by size category. So -- and I think I'll answer your short-term question, but it's worthwhile to step back and look at the broader trends in Southern California and take a medium-term view. We think Southern California has a really bright outlook. Couple of highlights of that stool.

我是克里斯·卡頓。謝謝你的提問。我將從南加州開始，我想我們中的一些人會根據尺寸類別加入不同的趨勢。所以——我想我會回答你的短期問題，但值得退一步看看南加州的更廣泛趨勢並採取中期觀點。我們認為南加州的前景非常光明。該凳子的幾個亮點。

The first is, well, Southern California is a major consumption center. It's a $2 trillion economy. It's got 23 million people, and the region is growing. Employment's up in the last year, and jobs are up 3% since 2019. Second leg of the stool, Southern California is growing as a gateway for international goods, container imports into the ports of LA and Long Beach are up 12% since 2019.

首先，南加州是一個主要的消費中心。這是一個價值2兆美元的經濟體。該地區有 2,300 萬人口，而且還在持續增加中。去年就業人數增加，自2019 年以來就業人數增加了3%。 。

Now global manufacturing patterns are shifting, as I think you're aware, but they remain positive for Southern California. Asian imports in the United States are up 21% since 2019 on an inflation-adjusted basis. Now yes. I think you're aware China should be down and it is, but only 6% since 2019. And so this is a testament to the China Plus One strategy that we and others have been talking about. There's significant growth in all over Asia, it's up 40% since 2019.

現在，全球製造業模式正在發生變化，我想您也知道，但它們對南加州來說仍然是積極的。自 2019 年以來，經通膨調整後，亞洲對美國的進口成長了 21%。現在是的。我認為你知道中國應該下降，而且確實如此，但自 2019 年以來僅下降了 6%。整個亞洲都有顯著成長，自 2019 年以來成長了 40%。

Third leg of the stool on the outlook for Southern California: barriers to supply. They're high and rising. Southern California has had scared land availability, onerous municipal requirements. And now there are state restrictions. With the adoption of, say, Bill AB 98. These together, restrict future new development.

關於南加州前景的第三條腿：供應障礙。他們很高，而且還在上升。南加州的土地供應緊張，市政要求繁重。現在有國家限制。比方說，Bill AB 98 的通過。

Now see if you're asking, I think it's important to recognize headwinds remain for Southern California as Tim alluded to in his script, customers are still working through some spare capacity, having taken more than they need it when vacancies were zero, but these long-term trends will be more important over time.

現在看看你是否在問，我認為重要的是要認識到南加州仍然存在逆風，正如蒂姆在他的劇本中提到的那樣，客戶仍在利用一些閒置產能，在空缺為零時獲得了超出他們需要的產能，但這些隨著時間的推移，長期趨勢將變得更加重要。

As it relates to the very short-term cyclical contours you're asking about, a couple of things have emerged in the last 90 days. One is demand remains soft in LA and there is a clear -- upgrade cycle emerging there, where Class A is outperforming Class B. Generally demanded and better in the Inland Empire, given the growth of the ports that I described earlier. And Orange County as a low market vacancy with -- and that positions us better to recover earlier.

由於它與您所詢問的非常短期的周期性輪廓相關，因此在過去 90 天內出現了一些事情。一是洛杉磯的需求仍然疲軟，那裡正在出現一個明顯的升級週期，其中A 級的表現優於B 級。 。橘郡的市場空缺率較低，這使我們能夠更好地早日恢復。

Now you asked about the first size, the first question as it relates to size, I'm going to turn that over to Dan.

現在你問了第一個尺寸，第一個問題與尺寸有關，我將把這個問題交給丹。

Yeah, just quickly on the sizes, certainly, which we've had some impacts on the smaller sized spaces in China that you see there. But when I look at this number quarter over quarter, the smaller size space is typically underperforming on occupancy basis to the other three buckets. As a matter of fact, quarter over quarter three of the four buckets were down slightly. So nothing really specific as it relates to historical trends.

是的，當然，我們對中國較小規模的空間產生了一些影響。但當我逐季度查看這個數字時，較小尺寸的空間在入住率方面通常表現不佳於其他三個空間。事實上，四個桶中四分之一以上的三分之一略有下降。因此，沒有什麼真正具體的，因為它與歷史趨勢有關。

Thank you, Steve. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。接線員，下一個問題。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

麥可‧戈德史密斯，瑞銀集團。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. You talked a little bit about how the customer has remained engaged, but they're also there remains a lot of sources of uncertainty and presumably that's related to the macro and interest rates and the election. So I guess the question is within the context of maybe past cycles or other periods of uncertainty, how quickly given that demand gets pick up as that uncertainty has been released?

早安.感謝您提出我的問題。您談到了客戶如何保持參與，但他們也仍然存在許多不確定性來源，大概與宏觀、利率和選舉有關。所以我想問題是在過去的週期或其他不確定時期的背景下，隨著不確定性的釋放，需求的回升速度有多快？

So said another way like when some of these factors stop weighing on the customer. Does that translate to an almost immediate translation to demand, or does it take a couple of quarters to ramp up from there? Thanks.

換句話說，當其中一些因素不再對客戶造成壓力時。這是否意味著幾乎可以立即滿足需求，還是需要幾個季度才能實現需求成長？謝謝。

Hi, Michael. Yeah, I heard your question as how quickly can demand recover as uncertainty is ebbs. So couple thoughts on that first, I think we should have a measured outlook on demand. Customers are engaged but taking in taking their time in terms of making decisions. And we really are focused on spare capacity in the supply chain getting used up, as Tim described earlier, and we're seeing that happening. So utilization early this year, at the beginning of this year was below 84% and it's mid-80%s, 84% is now. So it is in the building, which will be a catalyst for our customers to take space.

嗨，邁克爾。是的，我聽到你的問題是，隨著不確定性的消退，需求能多快恢復。因此，首先考慮一下這一點，我認為我們應該對需求有一個謹慎的展望。客戶很投入，但也願意花時間做決定。正如蒂姆之前所描述的，我們確實關注供應鏈中的閒置產能被耗盡，並且我們正在看到這種情況正在發生。所以今年年初的利用率低於 84%，現在是 80% 左右，現在是 84%。建築中也是如此，這將成為我們的客戶佔用空間的催化劑。

And indeed, there are these tailwinds of economic growth, of trade growth, of consumption growth and the acceleration of e-commerce continues. So I think that we should just over the near term, have a measured level of optimism. We just need to watch the market advance.

事實上，經濟成長、貿易成長、消費成長和電子商務的加速發展仍在繼續。所以我認為我們應該在短期內保持一定程度的樂觀態度。我們只需要觀察市場的進展。

Thank you, Michael. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，麥可。接線員，下一個問題。

Craig Mailman, Citi.

克雷格‧梅爾曼，花旗銀行。

Good afternoon. Maybe just circling back to capital deployment here on the development and acquisition front, I guess on the development side, very helpful where you think replacement cost rents are relative to new starts. But from a land basis perspective, could you give us a sense of kind of what's in that ready to go bucket that actually kind of works from a basis perspective given where rents are today? I guess that's one part of the question.

午安.也許只是回到開發和收購方面的資本部署，我想在開發方面，當您認為重置成本租金與新開工相關時，這非常有幫助。但從土地基礎的角度來看，您能否讓我們了解一下，考慮到目前的租金水平，從基礎角度來看，準備就緒的桶中的內容實際上是有效的？我想這是問題的一部分。

And then the other part just on acquisitions you guys are talking, seems like more bullish, you raised guidance here. Just curious kind of globally where you think the best uses of that or best targets are today? And how do you fund that given a on a stabilized basis, your equity is probably up around 6%, at least on my numbers? Are these more debt finance or these through the fund business? Can you just give us a sense of where and how you kind of want to put that capital out and whether you're interested in more bigger private portfolios or the historic bigger platform deals you guys have done the past?

然後，關於你們正在談論的收購的另一部分，似乎更加樂觀，你們在這裡提出了指導。只是好奇，在全球範圍內，您認為當今該技術的最佳用途或最佳目標在哪裡？在穩定的基礎上，你的股本可能會上漲 6% 左右，至少根據我的數據，你該如何籌集資金？這些更多的是債務融資還是透過基金業務？您能否讓我們了解您希望將資金投入到何處以及如何投入，以及您是否對更大的私人投資組合或您過去完成的歷史性更大平台交易感興趣？

Hey, Craig, it's Tim. Let me congratulate you on getting three questions in there at ones. Let me just start on this on the funding and the balance sheet and pass it back to Dan on the capital deployment pieces. I would still view us as having a lot of capacity in our own balance sheet, which has been an incredible, I'll say. We raised a lot of debt proceeds over the last few years. Well, our normal capital recycling has been a little bit slow. But if you look at our supplemental, look at our credit ratios over the last few years, including this morning, they're very healthy and consistent and even quite strong for our ratings.

嘿，克雷格，我是提姆。讓我祝賀您一次性回答了三個問題。讓我從資金和資產負債表開始，然後將其轉回給 Dan 的資本部署部分。我仍然認為我們自己的資產負債表具有很大的能力，我想說，這是令人難以置信的。過去幾年我們籌集了大量債務收益。嗯，我們正常的資本回收有點慢。但如果你看看我們的補充資料，看看我們過去幾年的信用比率，包括今天早上，它們非常健康、一致，甚至對於我們的評級來說相當強勁。

So we've been able to tap into that. And the reason that's been occurring is that EBITDA growth as, what really guides that capacity, remains very strong alongside the earnings growth. Alongside I would also say that has mentioned in my remarks, strategic capital fundraising is improving, not just what we raised in the quarter, but I feel like the body language and call notes that were getting, suggests that we're able to continue to be strong.

所以我們已經能夠利用這一點。出現這種情況的原因是，真正引導這種能力的 EBITDA 成長與獲利成長一起仍然非常強勁。除此之外，我還要說的是，我在演講中提到，戰略資本籌款正在改善，而不僅僅是我們在本季度籌集的資金，但我覺得我們的肢體語言和電話通知表明我們能夠繼續要堅強。

So I think a resume option of more normalized levels of capital recycling via contributions is very close. And that has been, as you know, our principal source of funding and many of event.

因此，我認為透過捐款恢復更正常化的資本回收水準的選擇非常接近。如您所知，這一直是我們的主要資金來源和許多活動的來源。

Yeah, then Craig, on the deployment front, we own land in about 50 -- over 50 markets globally. There's event's average vintage year is about 4.5, 5 years old. And the mark on that book is about 120% of book. So we have plenty of opportunities that pencil today and then keep in mind a lot of that land, the other 60% or so is on its way through entitlement where we create a lot of mixed ourselves as well over time.

是的，克雷格，在部署方面，我們在全球大約 50 個市場擁有土地。該賽事的平均年份約為4.5、5年。那本書上的分數大約是書的120%。因此，我們今天有很多機會，然後牢記其中的大部分土地，另外 60% 左右的土地正在通過權利，隨著時間的推移，我們也會創造出許多混合的土地。

So we don't see a shortage of opportunities. And keep in mind, as we underwrite these deals, we put them in at market value. So we just have such a wide dispersion of where this land manage exist. And then we also have a land bank that consists of a covered land plays and options that you actually don't see in that land bank. So again, not a shortage of opportunities.

所以我們不認為缺少機會。請記住，當我們承銷這些交易時，我們是按市場價值進行投資的。因此，我們的土地管理存在的地方非常分散。然後，我們還有一個土地儲備，其中包括您在該土地儲備中實際上看不到的覆蓋土地項目和選項。話又說回來，也不缺乏機會。

It's helped the point to any place globally where we want to allocate more than others. It's not the way we've ever operated, great-scale in virtually every market in which we operate. So really comes down to looking at every deal on the deal by deal basis and doing the highest quality deals.

這有助於我們在全球範圍內任何我們想要比其他地方分配更多資金的地方。這不是我們以往所採用的大規模營運方式，幾乎在我們營運的每個市場中都是如此。因此，歸根究底，就是逐筆交易地檢視每筆交易，並做出最高品質的交易。

Thank you, Craig. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，克雷格。接線員，下一個問題。

Caitlin Burrows, Goldman Sachs.

凱特琳·布羅斯，高盛。

Hi good morning, everyone. The earnings release commentary, you mentioned how Prologis is a partner of choice to meet supply chain digital and energy infrastructure needs. So could you give an update on the digital and energy side? I know it's a pretty open-ended question, but with those business lines new or what has been the focus here to date for them, kind of whatever the next near-term steps?

大家早安。在財報發布評論中，您提到普洛斯如何成為滿足供應鏈數位和能源基礎設施需求的首選合作夥伴。您能否介紹一下數位和能源的最新情況？我知道這是一個非常開放式的問題，但是隨著這些新業務線的出現，或者迄今為止他們的重點是什麼，接下來的近期步驟是什麼？

And also can you clarify what portion of the starts -- development starts in the quarter might have been data centers? Thanks.

您還能澄清一下本季開始的開發工作的哪一部分可能是資料中心嗎？謝謝。

Okay. I'll just pick up the energy piece and maybe pass it to Dan for data centers. As I mentioned, we have a good run rate of new energy starts in the quarter. We're talking about the solar business, both generation and storage over 50 megawatts in the quarter, which puts us at a really good pace run rate that has been accelerating in our solar program, which two years ago was broadly focused, really just in the United States, has now expanded around the globe and is active in Europe, LatAm, and Asia. So we feel, as I mentioned, really good about the escalating pace for that activity and where it's ultimately going to get us over 2025 marching towards that 1 gigawatt in fall.

好的。我會拿起能源部分，也許會將其傳遞給資料中心的丹。正如我所提到的，本季我們的新能源啟動運作率良好。我們談論的是太陽能業務，本季發電量和儲存量均超過50 兆瓦，這使我們處於非常好的運行速度，我們的太陽能計劃一直在加速，兩年前，該計劃被廣泛關注，實際上只是在美國，現已在全球擴張，並活躍於歐洲、拉丁美洲和亞洲。因此，正如我所提到的，我們對這項活動的不斷升級步伐感到非常滿意，並且最終將使我們在 2025 年秋季向 1 吉瓦邁進。

And then on the other data center front, overall 2024 has been, call it a bit of a -- exceeding the plan. We have focused on two things, building our pipeline and building the internal capabilities. Both are going extremely well. We have 1.6 gigawatts of secured power, of which 490 megawatts is currently under construction. We have an additional 1.4 gigawatts in advanced stages where we have high visibility to that procurement and then another over 1.5 gigawatts of applications submitted in dozens of different locations around the world. So very pleased with the pipeline with building and the team are establishing there.

然後在另一個資料中心方面，總體來說 2024 年已經超出了計劃。我們專注於兩件事，建立我們的管道和建立內部能力。兩者都進展得非常順利。我們擁有 1.6 吉瓦的安全電力，其中 490 兆瓦目前正在建設中。我們還有 1.4 吉瓦處於後期階段，我們對採購具有高度可見性，然後在全球數十個不同地點提交了另外超過 1.5 吉瓦的申請。對正在建造的管道和正在建立的團隊非常滿意。

You asked about the third quarter start that you see there, that is a powered shell building that we started a couple of years ago with a few different customers we're working with. That ended up turning into a turn-key deals. So what you see there is the conversion from a powered shell to a turn-key .

您詢問了您在那裡看到的第三季度開始情況，這是一個動力外殼建築，是我們幾年前與一些不同的客戶合作建造的。最終變成了交鑰匙交易。所以你看到的是從動力外殼到交鑰匙外殼的轉換。

Thank you, Caitlin. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，凱特琳。接線員，下一個問題。

Vince Tibone, Green Street.

文斯·蒂伯恩，格林街。

Hi, good morning. Could you share net absorption and supply completion in the quarter for US portfolio? And also provide any update to your full year outlook for supply and demand? It sounds like nothing big change. It surprised too much during the quarter, but just wanted to confirm your outlook and get the recent actuals there.

嗨，早安。您能否分享本季美國投資組合的淨吸收量和供應完成情況？並提供有關全年供需展望的最新資訊嗎？聽起來好像沒什麼大的變化。它在本季度令人驚訝太多，但只是想確認您的前景並了解最近的實際情況。

Hey, Vince. It's Chris Caton, thank you for the question. And your read on the quarter is correct. So we saw 40 million square feet of net absorption in the quarter, 63 million square feet of completions. So let's just zoom out and talk about the year and talk about how the direction is heading because we are progressing through this bottoming phase. So net absorption this year will amount to 160 million square feet, and that's against deliveries that are 300 million square feet. So naturally, market vacancies are rising. They're rising to 6.8%.

嘿，文斯。我是克里斯·卡頓，謝謝你的提問。您對該季度的解讀是正確的。因此，我們看到本季淨吸收量為 4,000 萬平方英尺，竣工面積為 6,300 萬平方英尺。因此，讓我們把目光放遠一點，討論這一年的情況，討論未來的發展方向，因為我們正在經歷這個觸底階段。因此，今年的淨吸收量將達到 1.6 億平方英尺，而這與 3 億平方英尺的交付量相比。因此，市場空缺自然會增加。他們正在上升至 6.8%。

And it sounds like you're very familiar with historical data. So you'll know that 6.8% is a low number in the totality of history. But there's something that's happening in the background that's really -- that doesn't always get attention we're talking about, which is the emptying of supply chains. So deliveries peaks a year ago at 135 million square feet per quarter and they fall into that number I gave you a 63 million here this quarter, so less than half in terms of the day decline. And they'll continue to decline into next year.

聽起來你對歷史數據很熟悉。所以你會知道 6.8% 在整個歷史中是一個很低的數字。但在背景中正在發生一些事情，這並不總是引起我們正在談論的關注，那就是供應鏈的清空。因此，一年前的交付量達到峰值，每季 1.35 億平方英尺，而本季我給你的交付量為 6,300 萬平方英尺，所以就日下降量而言，還不到一半。並且他們將繼續下降到明年。

At work here in the backdrop also, it starts are very low. We have them at 40 million, 42 million square feet in the quarter. So when you put all this together, what you find is the under-construction pipeline, which is about 215 million square feet today, is at its lowest point since 2017. So we're going to be going in 2025 with a relatively low level of supply and an opportunity for demand to improve as we progress through this uncertainty in the spare capacity.

在這裡工作的背景也是，起點很低。本季我們的面積為 4,000 萬至 4,200 萬平方英尺。因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，你會發現目前在建管道面積約為 2.15 億平方英尺，處於 2017 年以來的最低點。著我們克服閒置產能的不確定性，供應和需求都有機會改善。

Thank you, Vince. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，文斯。接線員，下一個問題。

Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.

羅納德‧卡姆德姆，摩根士丹利。

Great. Hey, just two quick ones. I'd sort of following that last question in terms of asking it a different way. When are you thinking availability sort of piece of the portfolio? I remember it was 4Q '24. Has that sort of changed at all once that pushed out to?

偉大的。嘿，只有兩個快點。我想以不同的方式提出最後一個問題。您什麼時候考慮將可用性作為投資組合的一部分？我記得那是24年第四季。一旦推出，情況是否改變了？

And then the second part of the question, when we think about the same store cash NOI guidance for this year, are there any sort of one-timers, puts and takes or comps that we should be aware of as we start thinking about 2025? Thanks.

然後問題的第二部分，當我們考慮今年同店現金 NOI 指導時，當我們開始考慮 2025 年時，是否有任何類型的一次性、看跌期權或比較值得我們注意？謝謝。

Hey, Ron, Chris Caton. So I think you said portfolio but I think you might have meant market. So I'm going to answer for the market in terms of vacancies. So we still have vacancies peaking in the later part of this year, but just taking a cautious stance on the direction of demand and that uncertainty, and that's their capacity that we I've described. We think you should anticipate a measured pace of -- basically an elongation of the peak over the course of the first part of next year. You'll see recovery emerge later next year and accelerate into 2026. I think that's something Dan described earlier.

嘿，羅恩，克里斯卡頓。所以我認為你說的是投資組合，但我認為你可能指的是市場。所以我將從職缺的角度來回答市場。因此，我們的職位空缺在今年下半年仍然達到頂峰，但只是對需求方向和不確定性採取謹慎立場，這就是我所描述的他們的能力。我們認為你應該預期明年上半年的最高峰會有所延長。您將在明年晚些時候看到復甦，並加速到 2026 年。

Hey, Ron, it's Tim. And then just picking up the second part of your question. With regard to cash same store, the answer would be no. I can't think of anything that would be one-time in nature. As we report that metric, we exclude things like lease termination fees that might fall in that category. So that's not there any way. The only thing I can maybe think of as free rent is normalizing back to market norms. There could be a little more free rent next year than we [line up] have seen in the first half of this year. But that would be relatively small.

嘿，榮恩，我是提姆。然後只是回答你問題的第二部分。對於現金同店，答案是否定的。我想不出有什麼東西本質上是一次性的。當我們報告該指標時，我們排除了可能屬於該類別的租賃終止費用等費用。所以沒有什麼辦法了。我唯一能想到的免費租金就是回歸市場常態。明年的免費租金可能會比我們今年上半年看到的多一點。但這相對較小。

If I widen out a little bit, though and take a question further same-store out in the future, anyway, it's probably a good opportunity just level set people on. We've seen market rent declines thus far this year. We've been clear about them continuing a bit in next year. We've highlighted that occupancy is bottoming here and going to sit here for a handful of quarters.

不過，如果我把範圍擴大一點，並在未來進一步在同店提出問題，無論如何，這可能是一個很好的機會，讓人們了解這一點。今年到目前為止，我們已經看到市場租金下降。我們已經明確表示它們將在明年繼續進行。我們已經強調，入住率正在觸底，並將持續幾個季度。

So looking ahead to next year, it's probably best to think about just the things that we know. And the way I would assemble a same store view going into next year would be to look at, for starters, the rent change either on a cash or net effective basis that we've had thus far this year. We know that that's got a half-year effect going into 2025 and then also make some assumptions about what rent change might be in 2025 similarly following the half-year convention.

因此，展望明年，最好只考慮我們所知道的事情。首先，我將在明年收集相同商店視圖的方法是，以現金或淨有效為基礎來研究今年迄今為止的租金變化。我們知道這會對 2025 年產生半年影響，然後按照半年慣例，對 2025 年租金變化可能會做出一些假設。

I think if you put that math together there today and think about a role level at 10% or 11%. On a net effective basis, you'd probably find yourselves or is it something like 5%, 5.5% to 6% for that component of same store. Now net effective basis, of course, we would have the impact of the [FDLA] from the Duke portfolio that takes something like 100 off of that. So you're squarely somewhere around 5%.

我想，如果你今天把這些數學放在一起，並考慮 10% 或 11% 的角色等級。在淨有效的基礎上，您可能會發現自己對於同一家商店的該組成部分來說是 5%、5.5% 到 6% 左右。當然，現在淨有效基礎上，我們會受到杜克大學投資組合中 [FDLA] 的影響，這會減少 100 左右。所以你的比例剛好在 5% 左右。

And then the last thing to think about is just occupancy trends. And again, things really murky to forecast occupancy from here. But you could at least take into account the fact that the occupancies have been declining over the course of this year. So would stand to reason on at least an average basis this year than next. That would probably be an additional headwind on same store.

最後要考慮的就是入住率趨勢。再說一遍，從這裡預測入住率確實很困難。但你至少可以考慮到今年入住率一直在下降的事實。因此，至少從平均值來看，今年比明年是有道理的。這可能會給同一家商店帶來額外的阻力。

Thank you, Ron. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，羅恩。接線員，下一個問題。

Blaine Heck, Wells Fargo.

布萊恩·赫克，富國銀行。

Great. Thanks. Good morning out there. We've heard a lot recently about strong demand from Asian e-commerce and 3PL companies. So I was hoping you could talk about whether you signed any deals with the tenant and just your view on whether this is just the massive pull forward of demand ahead of potential tariff increases or whether you think those groups we continue to lease space into 2025 and beyond?

偉大的。謝謝。早安.最近我們聽到很多有關亞洲電子商務和 3PL 公司的強勁需求的消息。因此，我希望您能談談您是否與租戶簽署了任何協議，以及您對這是否只是潛在關稅增加之前需求的大規模拉動的看法，或者您是否認為我們會繼續租賃空間到 2025 年超過？

Hi, Blaine, it's Christ Caton. Thanks for that question. I'll give you a concise answer and then I'll provide you some context because this is a growing category . And so yes, we are leasing with these customers. And yes, we think they will continue to lease space into next year and beyond. And no, we don't really think it's much related to any sort of pull forward as you asked .

嗨，布萊恩，我是基督‧卡頓。謝謝你提出這個問題。我會給你一個簡潔的答案，然後我會給你一些背景信息，因為這是一個不斷增長的類別。所以，是的，我們正在與這些客戶租賃。是的，我們認為他們將繼續租賃空間到明年及以後。不，我們並不認為這與您所問的任何形式的前移有太大關係。

But let's just zoom out and understand kind of the broader context here. So to understand really obvious 3PL companies, it is productive to first start with the Chinese e-commerce platforms. They're enjoying rapid growth this year, last year. We're talking about 25%, 50% annual growth and more depending on the concept. Until the Chinese 3PLs obviously are performance logistics here and there are growing rapidly.

但讓我們縮小範圍並了解更廣泛的背景。因此，要了解真正明顯的 3PL 公司，首先從中國電子商務平台開始是有成效的。他們今年和去年都在快速成長。我們談論的是 25%、50% 或更多的年增長率，具體取決於概念。直到中國的 3PL 顯然都在快速成長。

I'd say they represent roughly 20% of net absorption this year. And what it also offers our businesses are diversifying has now they compete for all contracts, not just Chinese e-commerce. And so many of these customers are position for growth. They're signing long-term leases, and they are investing in their space.

我想說它們大約佔今年淨吸收量的 20%。它還為我們的業務提供了多元化，現在他們競爭所有合同，而不僅僅是中國電子商務。其中許多客戶都處於成長狀態。他們正在簽署長期租約，並且正在投資自己的空間。

You ask after this pull forward, and so it is natural to think about how my tariffs and changes in tariffs effect these customers. And a couple of ways to think about it. First, the growth of this ecosystem, this is one that connects Asia manufacturers with American consumers. What they're doing is they're bypassing the traditional import distributors, and they're doing it in response to the past tariffs, that margin pressure brought about by those tariffs.

您在這次拉動之後詢問，因此很自然地會考慮我的關稅和關稅變化如何影響這些客戶。以及一些思考它的方法。首先，這個生態系統的發展，將亞洲製造商與美國消費者連結起來。他們所做的是繞過傳統的進口經銷商，他們這樣做是為了應對過去的關稅，以及這些關稅帶來的利潤壓力。

So in summary of that point, some of the growth this year is simply a shift in business model in response to pat tariffs. The second point which I described earlier is look, Asian imports are up 21% versus 2019 on an inflation-adjusted basis. And this is really fueled by that China Plus One manufacturing model and the growth of Asia ex-China imports from Asia ex-China, which are up 40% as I said.

因此，總而言之，今年的一些成長只是為了應對關稅而進行的商業模式轉變。我之前描述的第二點是，經通膨調整後，亞洲進口量較 2019 年增加了 21%。這實際上是由「中國加一」製造模式和亞洲（中國除外）進口成長推動的，正如我所說，進口成長了 40%。

Then the third in the details of tariffs is something called diminimus provisions. You may be aware is a provision that allows goods to come in and avoid tariffs under a certain value. These are likely to be wound down under a wide range of scenarios. But it's worth noting that these are only 3% -- good coming in under the diminimus provisional only 3% of Asian imports.

關稅細節中的第三個是所謂的最小條款。您可能知道有一項規定允許貨物進入並避免低於一定價值的關稅。在多種情況下，這些措施可能會逐漸減少。但值得注意的是，這些僅佔亞洲進口量的 3%——在暫定的微分值下僅佔 3%。

And so look as the category matures, this is a growth category for sure. There will be winners and losers. And please know that we employ the same rigorous, credit evaluation process here as we do with any and all of our prospective customers.

因此，隨著該類別的成熟，這肯定是一個成長類別。將會有贏家和輸家。請注意，我們在這裡採用與所有潛在客戶相同的嚴格信用評估流程。

Thank you, Blaine. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，布萊恩。接線員，下一個問題。

Nick Thillman, Baird.

尼克·希爾曼，貝爾德。

Thanks, good morning out there. We noticed in the past few quarters has been an uptick in lease commencements with term less than a year in the core portfolio of roughly like 50% of commencements. I guess wanted to get some more color on those kind of specifically, are these tenants opting for shorter-term renewals. Do these new tenant, kind of looking for suite space, given the uncertain macro, anything you could provide there will be pretty helpful. Thank you.

謝謝，早安。我們注意到，在過去幾季中，核心投資組合中租賃期不到一年的租賃開始量有所增加，約佔開始租賃量的 50%。我想具體了解這些租戶是否選擇短期續約。對於這些新租戶來說，在尋找套房空間，考慮到宏觀經濟的不確定性，你可以提供的任何東西都會非常有幫助。謝謝。

Hey, Nick. It's Tim. I think that's an element of it. Some uncertainty around the part of the customer. I think more so it's recognition in certain cases we're being very strategic about the level of rents and some of our markets and what's being locked in now. And there's just bespoke certain situations where we see an opportunity to keep it on the shorter end where we see some of the rent recovery happening sooner than the overall forecast. And so there is a strategy in that part as well.

嘿，尼克。是蒂姆。我認為這是其中的一個要素。客戶方面存在一些不確定性。我認為更重要的是，在某些情況下，我們認識到我們對租金水平、我們的一些市場以及現在鎖定的內容採取了非常戰略性的態度。在某些客製化的情況下，我們看到有機會將其保持在較短的時間內，我們看到一些租金的恢復比整體預測更早發生。所以這部分也有策略。

Thank you, Nick. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，尼克。接線員，下一個問題。

Josh Dennerlein, Bank of America.

喬許‧丹納林，美國銀行。

Yeah. Hey, guys, thanks for those of filling in for Jeff today. Just looking at the occupancy across regions, it's looks like Asia and LatAm kind of step back, any kind of trends to flag in those two regions or it's like what you're seeing in the US, it looks like it's more stabilizing at this point.

是的。嘿，夥計們，謝謝你們今天代替傑夫。看看各個地區的入住率，亞洲和拉丁美洲似乎有所退步，這兩個地區出現了任何趨勢，或者就像你在美國看到的那樣，目前看起來更加穩定。

Thanks of the question, Josh. Really just comes down to the impact from China. Japan certainly has some oversupply issues we're dealing with as well, but our portfolio is in good shape there. But it's really China that we see impact.

謝謝你的提問，喬許。其實只是來自中國的影響。日本當然也存在我們正在處理的一些供應過剩問題，但我們的投資組合在那裡狀況良好。但我們真正看到影響的是中國。

Thank you, Josh. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，喬許。接線員，下一個問題。

Mike Mueller, JP Morgan.

麥克·穆勒，摩根大通。

Hi. Are there any specific pockets of the portfolio or regions that are driving the higher development stabilization guidance?

你好。投資組合或地區中是否有任何特定領域正在推動更高的發展穩定指導？

Thanks for the question there Mike. Well, this development book is spread all around the globe. So there's no trend to point to.

謝謝麥克的提問。嗯，這本開發書已傳遍全球。所以沒有任何趨勢可以指出。

Thank you, Mike. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，麥克。接線員，下一個問題。

Nicholas Yulico, Scotiabank.

尼古拉斯·尤利科，豐業銀行。

Thanks. I just wanted to clarify a couple of numbers. I think you said that the market rents globally were down 3% this quarter. And then last quarter, the forecast was for the next 12 months down 2% to 5%. So are those the same periods on measurement? I just want -- because it would seem then that forecast was already hit this quarter along based on the sequential decline unless I'm confusing something here. Thanks.

謝謝。我只是想澄清幾個數字。我想你說過本季全球市場租金下降了 3%。然後上個季度，對未來 12 個月的預測下降了 2% 到 5%。那麼這些測量週期是相同的嗎？我只是想——因為看起來這個季度的預測已經根據連續下降而達到了，除非我在這裡混淆了一些東西。謝謝。

Hi, Nicolas. It's Chris. Thanks for the question. So the time periods are going to be different. You have the correct numbers. And as Dan described, we continue to see rents [desoft] in our view today is now a different rolling 12 months view. And we remain cautious on rents over that time period. And as Tim described in his script, run softness should persist in the middle part of next year.

嗨，尼古拉斯。是克里斯。謝謝你的提問。所以時段會有所不同。你有正確的數字。正如 Dan 所描述的，我們今天仍然認為租金 [desoft] 現在是一個不同的滾動 12 個月的觀點。我們對這段期間的租金保持謹慎。正如蒂姆在劇本中所描述的那樣，運行疲軟應該會持續到明年中期。

Look I might just add that it's fair to interpret the way you're looking at those numbers, but yeah maybe at the -- depending how you count at the north or south into that range, maybe that would be closer to [five] over the preceding 12-month period that we described last quarter and than not given what we saw so far in the third quarter.

聽著，我可能只是補充說，解釋你看待這些數字的方式是公平的，但是，是的，也許在 - 取決於你如何在北部或南部計算這個範圍，也許這會更接近[五]以上我們在上個季度描述的前12 個月期間，並沒有考慮到我們在第三季迄今所看到的情況。

Thank you, Nick. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，尼克。接線員，下一個問題。

Michael Carroll, RBC Capital Markets.

麥可卡羅爾，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Hi, this is Rudy on for Mike. And I was just wondering what kind of the jump in CapEx this quarter.

大家好，我是麥克的魯迪。我只是想知道本季資本支出的跳躍情況如何。

I'm sorry. I didn't hear the end to that question. what drove what?

對不起。我沒有聽到這個問題的結尾。是什麼驅動了什麼？

The jump in CapEx for this quarter.

本季資本支出大幅成長。

A lot of that is focused in -- you can see the components of CapEx in the supplemental between property improvements and leasing commissions and tenant improvements. There are a lot of leasing in SoCal in particular it's just a sort of a reminder that rents there are very high the commission's lined up and turn being a quite high. And then as you -- it's quite clear from our supplemental as well, where we have property improvements disclosure that can be pretty lumpy between quarters and it was a bit elevated here in Q3, but on a trailing 12 month basis, very normal.

其中許多都集中在——您可以在財產改善、租賃佣金和租戶改善之間的補充中看到資本支出的組成部分。特別是在南加州有很多租賃，這只是一種提醒，那裡的租金非常高，佣金也很高。然後，正如您所說，從我們的補充資料中也可以清楚地看出，我們的財產改善揭露在季度之間可能相當不穩定，並且在第三季度略有上升，但從過去12 個月的角度來看，這是非常正常的。

Thank you, Rudy. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，魯迪。接線員，下一個問題。

Todd Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

托馬斯 (Todd Thomas)，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Hi, thanks. First, can you just talk about leasing demand and absorption trends throughout the quarter a little bit? How the quarter played out a bit July through September? And then also in terms of the space utilization and comments that you've made around capacity and the portfolio, which seems to be an important input into your forecast, your portfolio skews toward consumption. And I'm just curious if you have any thoughts around the utilization metrics from inventory levels or I guess inventory build ahead of the election and potential tariffs and also the East Coast port strikes and whether you might expect to see some volatility on utilization in the near term.

你好，謝謝。首先，您能簡單談談整個季度的租賃需求和吸收趨勢嗎？ 7 月到 9 月這個季度的表現如何？然後，就空間利用率以及您圍繞容量和投資組合所做的評論而言，這似乎是您預測的重要輸入，您的投資組合偏向消費。我只是好奇您是否對庫存水平的利用率指標有任何想法，或者我猜想選舉前的庫存增加、潛在的關稅以及東海岸港口罷工，以及您是否預計會看到利用率的一些波動。

Hey, Todd. It's Chris Caton Thank you for the questions. Answer on the first one is demand was steady through the quarter, so no meaningful acceleration or decleration which I think what you're asking. As it relates to utilization, I guess -- well, maybe we step back and cover some of the numbers that I alluded to earlier. So there is an upward trend this year. The year started below 84%. I think I mention it in this up. I think [84%] and there's no noise from quarter to quarter, which is a combination of good coming in and coming out as well as just the methodology, which is survey-based.

嘿，托德。我是克里斯·卡頓，謝謝你的提問。第一個問題的答案是整個季度的需求保持穩定，因此我認為您所問的沒有有意義的加速或減速。我想，因為它與利用率有關——好吧，也許我們退後一步，討論我之前提到的一些數字。所以今年有上升的趨勢。今年年初低於 84%。我想我在這上面有提到過。我認為[84%]，每個季度都沒有噪音，這是良好的進出以及基於調查的方法的結合。

I think if you step back and consider some of the context. One thing I'd add to your consideration is look, import active equity really shows there's an effort to restock supply chains. But this is occurring at amidst of -- perhaps more resilient consumer than was expected. And so those consumers are pulling goods out of supply chains and kind of keeping utilization a little bit below what we consider to be a normal level.

我想如果你退後一步考慮一些背景。我要補充給您考慮的一件事是，進口主動股本確實表明正在努力補充供應鏈庫存。但這發生在可能比預期更有彈性的消費者之中。因此，這些消費者正在將商品從供應鏈中撤出，並使利用率略低於我們認為的正常水平。

Thank you, Todd. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，托德。接線員，下一個問題。

Brendan Lynch, Barclays.

布倫丹·林奇，巴克萊銀行。

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I'm hoping you can help us reconcile the guidance from the December Investor Day. It sounds like rent growth is around 0% through 2026, and vacancy is going to peak at a little bit higher than what you had been expecting. So how should we think about your core FFO CAGR over the next three years?

偉大的。感謝您提出我的問題。我希望您能幫助我們協調 12 月投資者日的指導。聽起來到 2026 年租金成長率約為 0%，而空置率將達到峰值，略高於您的預期。那我們該如何看待未來三年核心 FFO 複合年增長率呢？

Hey, Brian, it's Tim. I would probably just put that aside, I think there's been so much change right now in the markets that as I was doing earlier and describing the way to think about 2025, but just take a fresh look of where we are now with regard to at least mark to market. They've been rents over the next 12 months or whatever that period is before we start to see it accelerate again.

嘿，布萊恩，我是提姆。我可能會把這一點放在一邊，我認為現在市場發生了很大的變化，正如我之前所做的那樣，並描述了對 2025 年的思考方式，但請重新審視我們現在所處的位置最低市場標價。它們是未來 12 個月的租金，或者是我們開始看到租金再次加速成長之前的任何時間段的租金。

It's really important to appreciate how much that 34% lease mark to market will sustain earnings. If you kind of map out that as where rents will start a bit of a decline for the next 12 months and then an increase thereafter, you'll see on rent change alone, five, six, seven years of very strong mid-single digit, same store growth just out of the rent growth component by itself.

真正重要的是要認識到 34% 的市場租金將在多大程度上維持盈利。如果您將未來 12 個月的租金開始小幅下降，然後再上升，您會看到僅租金變化一項，五年、六年、七年就會出現非常強勁的中個位數，同店增長僅來自租金增長本身。

So that's the underpinning. Over the long term, you're going to think about the adverse to that as you march down to the bottom line between financial and operating leverage. Admittedly, there's some headwinds on the financials leverage piece in the near term as interest rates are going up. But over the long term, that will be productive to the bottom end again.

這就是基礎。從長遠來看，當您向財務槓桿和營運槓桿之間的底線邁進時，您將考慮對此的不利影響。誠然，隨著利率上升，短期內金融槓桿部分面臨一些阻力。但從長遠來看，這將再次對底部產生效益。

And for Prologis, then you're really going to think about all the other things that we do, which is really the growth and capital deployment. Our higher and better use activity in data center, strategic capital, ventures, the energy business. These are all adders to our growth that are complementary on their own, but I would say synergistic back to the core business as well. And that's how you should think about long-term growth for us.

對於普洛斯來說，你真的會考慮我們所做的所有其他事情，這實際上是成長和資本部署。我們在資料中心、策略資本、創投、能源業務方面有更高更好的利用活動。這些都是我們成長的補充，它們本身是互補的，但我想說的是，對核心業務也有協同作用。這就是您應該如何考慮我們的長期成長。

Thank you, Brendon. Operator, next question.

謝謝你，布倫登。接線員，下一個問題。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa，Evercore ISI。

Yeah, thanks. Just wanted to clarify just two things. I think, Chris, you said something about 25% of the demand this year was from these Asian 3PL companies, I guess was that your portfolio specifically, were you making a comment about the market or Southern California in particular? I just wanted to sort of clarify that.

是的，謝謝。只是想澄清兩件事。我想，克里斯，你說今年大約 25% 的需求來自這些亞洲 3PL 公司，我想你的投資組合具體是這樣的，你是否對市場或南加州做出了評論？我只是想澄清這一點。

Hey, thanks for the opportunity to clarify. That's broadly across the marketplace.

嘿，謝謝你給我澄清的機會。這在整個市場上都很普遍。

Okay, thank you. That was the last question here. I'd like to just wrap up by making a few points. First, the quarterly results met our expectations. Secondly, we think we're in a bottoming process that's underway with completions very clearly in a downtrend. Lastly, capital values are increasing, fundraising has improved, and we're actively investing in the future of our business. And we're in this has a long run.

好的，謝謝。這是最後一個問題。我想透過幾點來結束本文。首先，季度業績符合我們的預期。其次，我們認為我們正處於觸底過程，成交量明顯處於下降趨勢。最後，資本價值不斷增加，籌款情況有所改善，我們正在積極投資於我們業務的未來。從長遠來看，我們正在這樣做。

With that, we look forward to speaking you at the upcoming conferences and again next quarter.

因此，我們期待在即將舉行的會議上以及下個季度再次與您交談。

And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Have a great rest of the day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。祝你這一天好好休息。