Prologis Inc (PLD) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Prologis 2024 年第四季財報電話會議重點討論了財務措施、市場狀況和指導。積極的租賃活動、強勁的財務表現和資本回收工作得到了強調。該公司強調彈性和成長潛力,並專注於 2025 年租賃利差、壞帳假設和入住率的指導。

該公司對租賃趨勢、市場租金成長以及關稅對產業的影響持樂觀態度。他們正在考慮利用其資料中心業務的選項,並預計全年將出現強勁的成長勢頭。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to the Prologis Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call.

    您好,歡迎參加安博 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    (操作員指示)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。

  • It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Justin Meng, Senior Vice President, Head of Investor Relations.

    現在我很高興向您介紹主持人,高級副總裁兼投資者關係主管孟孟。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • You may begin.

    你可以開始了。

  • Justin Meng - Senior Vice President, Head of Investor Relations

    Justin Meng - Senior Vice President, Head of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Jamali, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝賈瑪麗,大家早安。

  • Welcome to our Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call.

    歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

  • The supplemental document is available on our website at prologis.com under Investor Relations.

    補充文件可在我們的網站 prologis.com 的「投資者關係」下取得。

  • I'd like to state that this call will contain forward-looking statements under federal securities laws.

    我想聲明的是,本次電話會議將包含聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性陳述。

  • These statements are based on current expectations, estimates, and projections about the market and the industry in which Prologis operates as well as management's beliefs and assumptions.

    這些陳述是基於對普洛斯經營所在市場和行業的當前預期、估計和預測以及管理層的信念和假設。

  • Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance, and actual operating results may be affected by a variety of factors.

    前瞻性陳述並非績效保證,實際經營績效可能會受到多種因素的影響。

  • For a list of those factors, please refer to the forward-looking statement notice in our 10-K and other SEC filings.

    有關這些因素的列表,請參閱我們的 10-K 和其他 SEC 文件中的前瞻性聲明通知。

  • Additionally, our fourth quarter earnings release and supplemental do contain financial measures such as FFO and EBITDA that are non-GAAP.

    此外,我們第四季的收益發布和補充確實包含非公認會計原則的財務指標,例如 FFO 和 EBITDA。

  • And in accordance with Reg G, we have provided a reconciliation to those measures.

    根據 Reg G,我們對這些措施進行了調節。

  • I'd like to welcome Tim Arndt, our CFO, who will cover results, real-time market conditions, and guidance.

    我要歡迎我們的財務長 Tim Arndt,他將介紹業績、即時市場狀況和指導。

  • Hamid Moghadam, our CEO; Dan Letter, President; and Chris Caton, Managing Director, are also with us today.

    Hamid Moghadam,我們的執行長;丹‧萊特,總裁;董事總經理 Chris Caton 今天也與我們同在。

  • With that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

    這樣,我就把電話轉給提姆。

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Justin.

    謝謝,賈斯汀。

  • Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining our call.

    大家早安,感謝您加入我們的通話。

  • I'd like to begin by recognizing the devastating wildfires still affecting Los Angeles.

    首先,我想認識仍在影響洛杉磯的毀滅性野火。

  • We operate a large portfolio there, but more importantly, we have colleagues, customers, and their communities struggling with the aftermath.

    我們在那裡經營龐大的投資組合,但更重要的是,我們的同事、客戶和他們的社區正在為災後的情況而苦苦掙扎。

  • It's too early to predict the full ramifications, but we'll continue to support the response and stay connected with local and state leaders as well as service organizations as the region works to recover.

    現在預測全面影響還為時過早,但我們將繼續支持應對工作,並在該地區努力恢復的過程中與地方和州領導人以及服務組織保持聯繫。

  • We have no doubt that a vibrant and dynamic Los Angeles will emerge from this crisis even stronger.

    我們堅信,充滿活力和活力的洛杉磯將在這場危機中變得更加強大。

  • In our business, the bottoming process across our markets continues to progress.

    在我們的業務中,我們市場的觸底過程仍在繼續進展。

  • Leasing in our portfolio accelerated following the US election, and the pipeline has started the year at healthy levels.

    美國大選後,我們的投資組合中的租賃加速了,今年年初的融資管道已處於健康水平。

  • During the quarter, we signed more than 60 million square feet of leases, a company record, and saw interest diversify across customer profile, size requirements and markets.

    本季度,我們簽署了超過 6000 萬平方英尺的租賃合同,創下了公司記錄,並看到客戶概況、規模要求和市場的興趣多樣化。

  • Looking ahead, we believe market vacancy is topping out and rents will inflect later this year.

    展望未來,我們認為市場空置率即將見頂,租金將在今年稍後出現變化。

  • Turning to our results.

    轉向我們的結果。

  • Core FFO, excluding net promote income, was $1.42 per share and including net promotes was $1.50 per share.

    核心 FFO(不含淨促銷收入)為每股 1.42 美元,包括淨促銷收入為每股 1.50 美元。

  • Our full year results ended at the top end of our guidance range, and in the end, represent 8.4% growth over 2023, putting us in the 86th percentile of all REITs.

    我們的全年業績達到了指導範圍的上限,最終比 2023 年增長了 8.4%,在所有 REIT 中排名第 86 位。

  • Average occupancy was 95.8% for the quarter, 96.3% for the year.

    本季平均入住率為 95.8%,全年平均入住率為 96.3%。

  • Net effective rent change during the quarter was 66% and on a full year basis was 69%, activity which added over $340 million in annualized NOI.

    本季淨有效租金變動為 66%,全年變動為 69%,年化 NOI 增加超過 3.4 億美元。

  • Our net effective lease mark-to-market finished the year at 30% and represents a further $1.4 billion of incremental NOI.

    我們的淨有效租賃市場年增率為 30%,NOI 增量為 14 億美元。

  • And finally, net effective and cash same-store growth during the quarter were 6.6% and 6.7%, respectively.

    最後,本季同店淨有效成長率和現金成長率分別為 6.6% 和 6.7%。

  • In terms of capital recycling, we had another active quarter.

    在資金回收方面,我們又經歷了一個活躍的季度。

  • Importantly, we contributed $2 billion of assets to our strategic capital ventures, bringing the full year total to over $3.3 billion.

    重要的是,我們為策略資本投資貢獻了 20 億美元的資產,使全年總額超過 33 億美元。

  • While capital flows in 2024 remain challenging, we did raise over $1.7 billion across the platform, driving the growth in third-party AUM by over 7%.

    儘管 2024 年的資本流動仍充滿挑戰,但我們確實在整個平台籌集了超過 17 億美元,推動第三方資產管理規模成長超過 7%。

  • We disposed of over $900 million of assets in the quarter and acquired approximately $450 million.

    我們在本季處置了超過 9 億美元的資產,並收購了約 4.5 億美元的資產。

  • And stepping back, over the full year, we disposed of over $2.1 billion and reinvested into a similar $2.3 billion of acquisitions at a positive IRR spread of 170 basis points, demonstrating our ability to self-fund and earn a return regardless of the yield environment.

    回顧一下,我們全年處置了超過 21 億美元,並以 170 個基點的正 IRR 利差再投資於類似的 23 億美元收購,這表明我們有能力自籌資金並獲得回報,無論收益率環境如何。

  • Included in our disposition activity for the quarter was the sale of our Elk Grove data center in Chicago.

    我們本季的處置活動包括出售位於芝加哥的埃爾克格羅夫資料中心。

  • Elk Grove was a logistics asset that we converted to a powered shell before securing a build-to-suit turnkey transaction with a hyperscaler last fall.

    Elk Grove 是一項物流資產,在去年秋天與超大規模企業達成客製化交鑰匙交易之前,我們將其轉換為動力外殼。

  • We simultaneously identified a buyer and closed in the fourth quarter at very attractive economics.

    我們同時確定了一位買家,並在第四季以非常有吸引力的經濟效益成交。

  • Because the property was owned by USLF for our structuring, procurement, leasing and monetization efforts, Prologis earned a value creation fee of $112 million, which was not included in our prior guidance due to the uncertainty and the timing of the transaction.

    由於該財產由USLF 擁有,用於我們的結構、採購、租賃和貨幣化工作,Prologis 賺取了1.12 億美元的價值創造費,由於交易的不確定性和時間安排,該費用未包含在我們之前的指導中。

  • Elk Grove is a great showcase of our data center development capabilities, which are more comprehensive than most.

    Elk Grove 很好地展示了我們的資料中心開發能力,這些能力比大多數資料中心開發能力都更加全面。

  • Today, we have 1.4 gigawatts of secured power and 1.6 gigawatts in advanced stages of procurement.

    如今,我們擁有 1.4 吉瓦的安全電力和 1.6 吉瓦處於採購後期階段的電力。

  • Over the next 10 years, we see 10 gigawatts of development potential across our portfolio.

    未來 10 年,我們的產品組合將擁有 10 吉瓦的發展潛力。

  • As a platform, we have the team, customer relationships, development and energy expertise, advanced procurement capabilities and the capital required to create significant value for our shareholders.

    作為一個平台,我們擁有為股東創造重大價值所需的團隊、客戶關係、開發和能源專業知識、先進的採購能力以及資本。

  • Turning to market conditions.

    轉向市場狀況。

  • As mentioned, quantitative measures of the market such as vacancy and changes in market rent met our expectations.

    如前所述,空置率和市場租金變化等市場定量指標符合我們的預期。

  • More importantly, indicators in our pipeline and dialogue with customers have us encouraged that conditions are set for a recovery in net absorption, leading to a bottoming of global rents.

    更重要的是,我們正在製定的指標以及與客戶的對話讓我們感到鼓舞,為淨吸納量的恢復創造了條件,從而導致全球租金觸底。

  • It's worth highlighting that our non-US portfolio fared better in rent growth over 2024, particularly in places like Japan, the UK, Southern Europe, and Latin America, which all grew over the year.

    值得強調的是,我們的非美國投資組合在 2024 年的租金成長方面表現較好,尤其是在日本、英國、南歐和拉丁美洲等地,這些地區在這一年中均出現成長。

  • Customer engagement is improving, and we saw a notable increase in activity amongst our larger global customers who often lead in the recovery of demand as we've seen in past cycles.

    客戶參與度正在改善,我們看到全球較大客戶的活動顯著增加,正如我們在過去的周期中看到的那樣,這些客戶往往會引領需求的復甦。

  • The improvement in decision-making is reflected in our proprietary metrics where proposals increased earlier in the year, lingered for a period of time and then began converting more meaningfully after the election.

    決策的改進反映在我們的專有指標中,其中提案在今年早些時候有所增加,停留了一段時間,然後在選舉後開始更有意義地轉換。

  • That leasing pattern translated to elevated gestation also seen in our metrics.

    這種租賃模式轉化為妊娠期的提高,這也反映在我們的指標中。

  • Our '25 forecast for net absorption calls for approximately 20% improvement over 2024, gradually building over the year.

    我們對 25 年淨吸收量的預測要求將比 2024 年提高約 20%,並在這一年中逐步提高。

  • We also know that completions will decline significantly, contributing to a supply forecast that is approximately 35% below '24.

    我們也知道,完工量將大幅下降,導致供應預測比 24 年減少約 35%。

  • As such, we expect a decline in vacancy over the year, which will pave the way for rent growth.

    因此,我們預計今年空置率將下降,這將為租金成長鋪平道路。

  • Longer term, we continue to see the path for uplift from market rents to replacement cost rents, a dynamic that will build upon our already significant lease mark-to-market.

    從長遠來看,我們繼續看到從市場租金到重置成本租金的上漲之路,這一動態將建立在我們已經相當大的租賃市場價值之上。

  • Today, we see replacement costs as 50% higher than in-place rents.

    如今,我們認為重置成本比原地租金高出 50%。

  • The capital markets were active with fourth quarter transaction volumes that put the year in total back to pre-COVID levels.

    資本市場活躍,第四季交易量使全年交易總量恢復到新冠疫情爆發前的水平。

  • Unlevered IRRs have compressed to the mid-7% range, and valuations as reported in our third-party appraisals had the globe marginally up this quarter.

    無槓桿 IRR 已壓縮至 7% 左右,我們的第三方評估報告中的估值使全球本季略有上漲。

  • Capital raising in our open-end vehicles was more muted in the fourth quarter as investors paused to take in changes in the yield environment, but we remain confident in our expectation for growing capital raises in 2025 as the pipeline is solid and conversations are active.

    由於投資者暫停接受收益率環境的變化,我們的開放式投資工具的融資在第四季度更加平靜,但我們對 2025 年融資成長的預期仍然充滿信心,因為管道穩固且對話活躍。

  • In terms of guidance, which I'll review at our share, we are forecasting average occupancy to range between 94.5% and 95.5%, which contemplates a dip in occupancy over the next one to two quarters, some of which is seasonal before rebuilding closer to 96% by the end of the year.

    在指導方面(我將在我們的分享中回顧),我們預測平均入住率將在94.5% 至95.5% 之間,預計未來一到兩個季度入住率會下降,其中一些是在重建之前的季節性下降到年底將達96%。

  • Net effective same-store growth is forecasted to be in a range of 3.5% to 4.5% and cash in the range of 4% to 5%, each driven by still significant rent change.

    同店淨有效成長預計將在 3.5% 至 4.5% 之間,現金成長將在 4% 至 5% 之間,這兩個因素均受到仍顯著的租金變化的推動。

  • Our G&A forecast is for $440 million to $460 million, and our strategic capital revenue forecast calls for $560 million to $580 million.

    我們的一般管理費用預測為 4.4 億至 4.6 億美元,我們的策略資本收入預測為 5.6 億至 5.8 億美元。

  • As for deployment, we are forecasting development starts to range between $2.25 billion and $2.75 billion.

    至於部署,我們預測開發起始金額在 22.5 億美元至 27.5 億美元之間。

  • We will continue to be selective in our starts and clearly have a lot of capacity to grow this number as conditions, rents and returns warrant.

    我們將繼續在啟動時進行選擇性,並且顯然有很大的能力在條件、租金和回報保證的情況下增加這一數字。

  • As a reminder, data center starts are excluded from this guidance, given their lumpiness.

    提醒一下,鑑於資料中心的不穩定,資料中心的啟動被排除在本指南之外。

  • That said, we do expect new projects to begin in 2025, likely in a range of 200 to 400 megawatts.

    也就是說,我們預計新專案將於 2025 年啟動,發電量可能在 200 至 400 兆瓦之間。

  • Acquisitions will range between $750 million and $1.25 billion, and our combined contribution and disposition activity will range between $2.5 billion and $3.5 billion.

    收購金額將在 7.5 億美元至 12.5 億美元之間,我們的出資和處置活動合計將在 25 億美元至 35 億美元之間。

  • Our development portfolio now stands at $4.7 billion with estimated value creation of $1.1 billion, $450 million to $600 million of which we expect to realize this year.

    我們的開發投資組合目前為 47 億美元,預計創造價值 11 億美元,我們預計今年將實現其中 4.5 億至 6 億美元的價值。

  • Finally, 2025 will be an important year for our energy business where our forecast is to hit our 1-gigawatt goal for solar generation and storage by year-end.

    最後,2025 年對我們的能源業務來說將是重要的一年,我們的預測是在年底前實現 1 吉瓦太陽能發電和儲存的目標。

  • In total, we are establishing our initial GAAP earnings guidance in a range of $3.45 to $3.70 per share.

    總的來說,我們將初始 GAAP 獲利指引確定為每股 3.45 美元至 3.70 美元。

  • Core FFO, including net promote expense, will range between $5.65 and $5.81 per share, while core FFO, excluding net promote expense will range between $5.70 and $5.86 per share.

    核心FFO(包括淨促銷費用)將在每股5.65美元至5.81美元之間,而核心FFO(不包括淨促銷費用)將在每股5.70美元至5.86美元之間。

  • In closing, we navigated a challenging year in terms of an operating environment, clearly unwinding from the overbuilding of the COVID era.

    最後,我們在營運環境方面度過了充滿挑戰的一年,明顯擺脫了新冠疫情時代的過度建設。

  • Our ability to generate over 8% growth in such an environment is a testament to the resiliency and breadth of our company.

    在這樣的環境下,我們能夠實現超過 8% 的成長,這證明了我們公司的彈性和廣度。

  • We're pleased with the increase in activity and improvement in sentiment that we've seen so far in the last two months.

    我們對過去兩個月迄今為止看到的活動增加和情緒改善感到高興。

  • And working through great amid the favorable supply backdrop will further establish the foundation to build occupancy, grow rents, and increase values, unlocking the full earnings potential in our core business.

    在有利的供應背景下努力,將進一步為提高入住率、增加租金和增加價值奠定基礎,從而釋放我們核心業務的全部獲利潛力。

  • And finally, we're very excited with what the future holds for our data center and energy initiatives.

    最後,我們對資料中心和能源計畫的未來感到非常興奮。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for your questions.

    這樣,我會將電話轉給接線員詢問您的問題。

  • Operator?

    操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Ki Bin Kim, Truist Securities.

    (操作員指令)Ki Bin Kim,Truist 證券。

  • Ki Bin Kim - Analyst

    Ki Bin Kim - Analyst

  • Can we flesh out the 2025 guidance a little further, please?

    我們能否進一步充實 2025 年指導方針?

  • And maybe you can touch on items like lease spreads, bad debt that you're assuming.

    也許你可以觸及租賃利差、你假設的壞帳等項目。

  • And on the occupancy front, the 95%, which is a little bit lower, I'm curious how much of that is same-store versus, let's say, development leasing or development projects coming into the pipeline that might not be leased up for some time of period.

    在入住率方面,95%,這個比例要低一些,我很好奇其中有多少是同店的,而比方說,開發租賃或進入管道的開發項目可能不會被出租一段時間的某個時間。

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Ki Bin, it's Tim.

    基彬,我是提姆。

  • So on rent spreads, we're going to see them in the 50% range this year, the 5 handle over the course of this year, still quite elevated from that lease mark-to-market, even with market rent growth a bit slower in the last several quarters.

    因此,就租金利差而言,我們今年將看到租金利差在 50% 的範圍內,即今年的 5 個百分點,儘管市場租金增長速度稍慢,但與租賃市場價格相比仍然相當高在過去的幾個季度中。

  • Bad debt, we normally are expecting something on the order of 20 basis points.

    壞賬,我們通常預期為 20 個基點左右。

  • Our history has been a little bit better than that.

    我們的歷史比這要好一些。

  • Our forecast is allowing for between 20 and 30 in this coming year as we enter the year with a few known tenants that we're watching.

    我們預測明年將有 20 到 30 個租戶,因為我們正在關註一些已知的租戶。

  • But we'll see that normalize hopefully by the end of next year.

    但我們預計在明年年底看到這種情況正常化。

  • And then in terms of occupancy, it's -- the two pools are so large, the average occupancy and ending occupancy, that we're expecting broadly for the company are not very different than what we'll see in the same-store pool.

    然後就入住率而言,這兩個池非常大,我們對公司的整體預期平均入住率和最終入住率與我們在同店池中看到的情況沒有太大不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Samir Khanal, Evercore ISI.

    薩米爾·卡納爾,Evercore ISI。

  • Samir Khanal - Analyst

    Samir Khanal - Analyst

  • Tim, you guys made some positive comments around leasing.

    提姆,你們對租賃發表了一些正面的評論。

  • But when I look at the space utilization chart, it was a bit surprising that slipped from the last quarter.

    但當我查看空間利用率圖表時,與上季度相比有所下滑有點令人驚訝。

  • Maybe reconcile the trends you're seeing there with the term of some of the comments, you're talking positivity around leasing inflection, et cetera.

    也許將您在那裡看到的趨勢與某些評論的術語相一致,您正在談論有關租賃變化的積極態度,等等。

  • Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

    Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

  • Samir, it's Chris Caton.

    薩米爾,我是克里斯卡頓。

  • I'm going to take it.

    我要接受它。

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • Good to hear from you.

    很高興收到你的來信。

  • So at the end of the day, we think there's some good news in this data and let me unpack that for you.

    因此,歸根結底,我們認為這些數據中有一些好消息,讓我為您揭開謎底。

  • As you look at the course of that material data over the year, utilization was largely ranged down in the low 84% range and we do think a more typical level is 85% or higher.

    當您查看一年中的材料資料流程時,利用率很大程度上下降在 84% 的低範圍內,我們確實認為更典型的水平是 85% 或更高。

  • Now recall, over the course of 2024 and in particular in December, look, consumption growth and holiday sales were unexpectedly healthy, and that pulled goods out of the supply chain.

    現在回想一下,在 2024 年,尤其是 12 月,消費成長和假期銷售出乎意料地健康,這將商品從供應鏈中拉出來。

  • And it led to this dip in utilization that is not really representative of the true trend.

    這導致了利用率的下降,這並不能真正代表真實的趨勢。

  • Customers instead are telling us that their utilization is rising, and we're starting to hear reports of inventory building taking shape in 2025.

    相反,客戶告訴我們,他們的利用率正在上升,我們開始聽到有關 2025 年庫存增加的報告。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vikram Malhotra, Mizuho.

    維克拉姆·馬爾霍特拉,瑞穗。

  • Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

    Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

  • So just on market rent growth, do you mind, A, just giving us what the actual realized market rent growth was across sort of the US versus other regions, maybe even just coastal, non-coastal?

    那麼,就市場租金成長而言,A,您介意給我們提供美國與其他地區(甚至可能只是沿海、非沿海)實際實現的市場租金增長情況嗎?

  • And in the same view, if you can give your updated forecast for '25 or just the 12-month rolling number you gave.

    在同一視圖中,如果您可以提供 25 年的更新預測或僅提供您提供的 12 個月滾動數字。

  • Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

    Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

  • Vikram, Chris Caton.

    維克拉姆,克里斯‧卡頓。

  • Thank you for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • So we had rents decline roughly 2% in the quarter.

    因此,本季租金下降了大約 2%。

  • And yes, there was a differential between coastal and non-coastal although it had narrowed in the fourth quarter.

    是的,沿海地區和非沿海地區之間存在差異,儘管這種差異在第四季度有所縮小。

  • As it relates to 2025, Tim described an outlook.

    談到 2025 年,Tim 描述了展望。

  • Look, most markets are stable but we expect modest further decline from here in a handful of soft submarkets.

    看起來,大多數市場都很穩定,但我們預計少數疲軟的子市場將進一步小幅下滑。

  • Later this year, we expect an inflection in positive growth to emerge, excuse me.

    今年晚些時候,我們預計會出現積極成長的轉折點,請原諒。

  • Now how that comes together for a view on 2025, there are scenarios where rents are flat, down, or up.

    現在綜合來看 2025 年的情況,租金可能會持平、下降或上漲。

  • And look, calling an inflection point within a single 12-month window is difficult and we do not want to offer that sort of sense of false precision.

    看,在一個 12 個月的窗口內判斷拐點是很困難的,我們不想提供那種錯誤的精確感。

  • Daniel Letter - President

    Daniel Letter - President

  • This is Dan, let me pile in on that.

    這是丹,讓我補充一下。

  • One thing to keep in mind is it's a point I made on the call last quarter is 90% of our leases actually roll beyond the next 12 months.

    需要記住的一件事是,我在上個季度的電話會議上提出的一個觀點是,我們 90% 的租約實際上會在未來 12 個月後到期。

  • So to his point on whether rents fluctuate up or down 2 points throughout the year, it's not going to impact the long-term earnings for this company or the value of the business.

    因此,就他的觀點而言,租金全年波動2個百分點,不會影響該公司的長期收益或業務價值。

  • And as Tim mentioned in the script, replacement cost rents are actually 15% higher than market rents, and that's 50% higher than in-place rents.

    正如提姆在劇本中提到的,重置成本租金實際上比市場租金高 15%,比就地租金高出 50%。

  • And it's the gap between the market rents and replacement cost rents that are really going to be the ultimate driver of rent growth into the future.

    市場租金和重置成本租金之間的差距確實將成為未來租金成長的最終驅動力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.

    羅納德‧卡姆德姆,摩根士丹利。

  • Ronald Kamdem - Research Analyst

    Ronald Kamdem - Research Analyst

  • Just going back to the dev starts, obviously picked up this year versus last year.

    回到開發開始,今年與去年相比明顯回升。

  • I guess I'm curious if you're thinking about commentary of leasing accelerating, positive absorption.

    我想我很好奇您是否正在考慮有關租賃加速、積極吸收的評論。

  • What do you need to see for us to see that number start to ramp back up to the $4 million to $5 million zip code?

    您需要看到什麼才能讓我們看到這個數字開始回升至 400 萬至 500 萬美元的郵遞區號?

  • And do you think you could see it this year?

    您認為今年能看到嗎?

  • Daniel Letter - President

    Daniel Letter - President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Thanks, Ron.

    謝謝,羅恩。

  • What I would say is our starts last year, we deliberately slowed those starts.

    我想說的是我們去年的開局,我們故意放慢了開局。

  • We continue a very disciplined approach to our spec program.

    我們繼續對我們的規範計劃採取非常嚴格的方法。

  • We also saw a number of very large build-to-suits push into 2025.

    我們還看到許多非常大型的客製化套裝將在 2025 年推出。

  • So what are we looking at right now?

    那我們現在在看什麼呢?

  • We're looking at the market conditions improving so we do expect completions to come way down.

    我們正在考慮市場狀況的改善,因此我們預計完工量將會大幅下降。

  • They're actually down 70% from the peak -- excuse me, starts are down 70% from the peak as well.

    實際上,它們比高峰下降了 70%——對不起,開工率也比高峰下降了 70%。

  • So the market itself is heading in the right direction, and we're waiting for that rent to improve, for the returns to improve.

    因此,市場本身正朝著正確的方向發展,我們正在等待租金改善,等待回報改善。

  • One thing to keep in mind is we do have $5 billion under development right now and 30 million square feet.

    需要記住的一件事是,我們目前正在開發價值 50 億美元、面積 3,000 萬平方英尺的專案。

  • We do have this very large land portfolio with $41.5 billion worth of opportunities, and that's in literally hundreds of sites around the globe.

    我們確實擁有龐大的土地投資組合,蘊藏著價值 415 億美元的機會,而且分佈在全球數百個地點。

  • And we've been making infrastructure investments, site work investments so we can really narrow the vertical build time and flip the switch when the time is right.

    我們一直在進行基礎設施投資和現場工作投資,這樣我們就可以真正縮短垂直建造時間,並在時機成熟時進行轉換。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

    麥可‧戈德史密斯,瑞銀集團。

  • Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

    Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

  • You stated in the prepared remarks, leasing in your portfolio accelerated following the US election, and the pipeline has started the year at healthy levels.

    您在準備好的發言中表示,美國大選後,您的投資組合中的租賃加速了,並且今年伊始的融資管道已處於健康水平。

  • Are you able to frame the magnitude of improvement?

    您能夠確定改進的幅度嗎?

  • And from your conversations with tenants, what is driving that improvement?

    從您與租戶的對話來看,是什麼推動了這種改善?

  • Is it more certainty?

    是不是更有確定性?

  • Is it more willingness to spend?

    是不是比較願意花錢?

  • Is it the deals that were dying on the CFO's desk are now getting put through?

    是那些在財務長辦公桌上垂死的交易現在正在完成嗎?

  • Any helpful commentary -- any commentary there would be helpful.

    任何有用的評論——任何評論都會有幫助。

  • Daniel Letter - President

    Daniel Letter - President

  • Yes, Michael, I'll start on this and maybe Tim or Chris will pile in.

    是的,邁克爾,我會開始講這個,也許蒂姆或克里斯會加入。

  • What we saw last quarter was really kind of a tale of two different markets.

    我們上個季度看到的其實是兩個不同市場的故事。

  • The first part of the quarter, first five, six weeks, it was very quiet.

    本季的第一部分,前五、六週,非常安靜。

  • And we did hear from customers, they're waiting to see what was going to happen with the election.

    我們確實收到了客戶的來信,他們正在等待選舉結果。

  • That was coming off five, six quarters of delay in decision-making due to cost of capital or geopolitical concerns.

    由於資本成本或地緣政治擔憂,決策延遲了五、六個季度。

  • And then post election, it really was this boom, that we've had really 10 weeks of very solid decision-making and it's unlocking previously stalled deals.

    選舉後,確實是這種繁榮,我們確實進行了 10 週的非常可靠的決策,並且正在釋放先前停滯的交易。

  • So we're seeing resiliency from e-commerce, general goods, electronics, food and beverage.

    因此,我們看到電子商務、一般商品、電子產品、食品和飲料的彈性。

  • Really, it's pretty broad-based where we're seeing this activity and what we're hearing from these customers.

    事實上,我們所看到的這項活動以及我們從這些客戶那裡聽到的消息是非常廣泛的。

  • We're also hearing from these customers -- we still have a group of customers saying that they're working through gray space.

    我們也收到了這些客戶的來信——我們仍然有一群客戶表示他們正在灰色空間中工作。

  • They're focused on cost containment.

    他們專注於成本控制。

  • But then I'll tell you, 3PLs last quarter broke the record that they had in the third quarter of 25 million square feet of leasing.

    但接下來我會告訴你,上個季度 3PL 打破了第三季 2500 萬平方英尺的租賃記錄。

  • So 3PLs in the back half of the year leased nearly 50 million feet.

    因此,今年下半年 3PL 租賃了近 5,000 萬英尺。

  • So kind of a tale of two markets and some really robust leasing from several customer segments.

    這是一個關於兩個市場和來自多個客戶群的真正強勁租賃的故事。

  • Chris, go ahead.

    克里斯,繼續吧。

  • Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

    Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Just in terms of the specific quantification, Tim already discussed record lease signings.

    就具體的量化而言,蒂姆已經討論過創紀錄的租約簽約。

  • And in terms of pipeline, the pipeline is up 17% January-to-January, specific response to your question.

    在通路方面,1 月至 1 月通路成長了 17%,具體回答你的問題。

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • The only thing I would add is that actually the end of the fourth quarter and the beginning of the first quarter are usually slow times.

    我唯一要補充的是,實際上第四季末和第一季初通常是緩慢的時期。

  • So I think the bump was even more important or different than history.

    所以我認為這次碰撞比歷史更重要或更不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Craig Mailman, Citi.

    克雷格‧梅爾曼,花旗銀行。

  • Craig Mailman - Analyst

    Craig Mailman - Analyst

  • Just on the occupancy piece, just a few follow-ups.

    就佔用部分而言,只是一些後續行動。

  • Tim, maybe you mentioned a couple of tenants that you're monitoring for bad debt and then you also mentioned seasonality.

    提姆,也許您提到了您正在監控壞帳情況的幾個租戶,然後您也提到了季節性。

  • Could you frame up, within that range of 100 basis points at 94.5% to 95.5%, how much of that's sort of seasonality driven versus how much of it is potential bad debt that may not materialize?

    您能否列出,在 94.5% 至 95.5% 的 100 個基點範圍內,其中有多少是季節性驅動的,有多少是可能不會實現的潛在壞帳?

  • And then that was helpful on the pipeline update.

    這對管道更新很有幫助。

  • But I'm just kind of curious here also how you guys are managing the portfolio with an expected market rent inflection potentially by the end of the year.

    但我只是有點好奇你們是如何管理投資組合的,預計到年底市場租金可能會有所變動。

  • Are you guys prioritizing occupancy over rate at this point to kind of run the portfolio?

    你們現在是否優先考慮入住率而不是房價來管理投資組合?

  • Or are you holding back at all kind of holding on price?

    還是你對價格持保留態度?

  • So just kind of curious how much toggle there is in that occupancy guide on kind of what you know versus how you're managing the portfolio.

    因此,我只是好奇該入住指南中關於您所了解的內容與您管理投資組合的方式之間有多少切換。

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Craig, let me start by unpacking it this way.

    克雷格,讓我先這樣拆開它。

  • As we look at our outperformance to market on occupancy historically, and I'm talking maybe 10, 15 years now, we have a history of outperforming the market maybe 100, 150 basis points.

    當我們回顧歷史上我們在入住率方面優於市場的表現時,我現在談論的可能是 10、15 年,我們的歷史表現可能優於市場 100、150 個基點。

  • And I would just put a side note on that, that over that period of time, that portfolio has been improving greatly and we expect that outperformance will grow.

    我想補充一點,在那段時間裡,該投資組合一直在大幅改善,我們預計其優異表現將會成長。

  • And in fact, in the recent quarters, it has, or even years now, we've seen that outperformance level nearly double.

    事實上,在最近幾個季度,甚至幾年前,我們已經看到其表現水準幾乎翻了一番。

  • If you put the elements of our forecast together with not only for our own portfolio but also what we see in the market, we think we're actually going to see this level of outperformance that we have today, which sits in the high 200 basis points, probably where we end the year.

    如果你將我們預測的要素與我們自己的投資組合以及我們在市場上看到的情況結合起來,我們認為我們實際上會看到我們今天的表現水平,它位於 200 的高基點點,可能是我們今年結束的點。

  • What we do see is that in our own portfolio, just again, circumstances to particular leases, that our average will be a little bit lower.

    我們確實看到的是,在我們自己的投資組合中,同樣,在特定租賃的情況下,我們的平均值會稍低一些。

  • So my point here is you can almost ascribe that difference that you observe in average occupancy to those rolling leases that are going to take a little bit of time to backfill, but we do think we'll rebuild that overall outperformance level by the end of the year.

    所以我的觀點是,你幾乎可以將你觀察到的平均入住率差異歸因於那些需要一點時間回填的滾動租賃,但我們確實認為我們將在年底前重建整體表現水平。

  • And then in terms of managing for rent growth or occupancy, as you can imagine, it's not just a market or submarket conversations even down to the lease level, given our revenue management capabilities.

    然後,在管理租金成長或入住率方面,正如您可以想像的那樣,考慮到我們的收入管理能力,這不僅僅是市場或子市場的對話,甚至還包括租賃水平。

  • And we have a lot of markets and submarkets at different stages of recovery.

    我們有很多市場和子市場處於不同的復甦階段。

  • So those are really one-off decisions.

    所以這些確實是一次性的決定。

  • Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • The only thing I would add to that is that credit loss averaging under 20 basis points across the cycle.

    我唯一要補充的是,整個週期的信用損失平均低於 20 個基點。

  • The highest it got was in the global financial crisis, which was crazy.

    它達到最高的是在全球金融危機期間,那是瘋狂的。

  • It was almost 100 basis points.

    幾乎是100個基點。

  • But even in the beginning of COVID when the world was in a panic, it got to 50, 60 basis points and then went right back down.

    但即使在新冠疫情爆發之初,當世界陷入恐慌時,匯率也達到了 50、60 個基點,然後又回落。

  • So the credit loss issue is never going to be the big -- I shouldn't say never but it hasn't been a big explanation for that change.

    因此,信用損失問題永遠不會成為大問題——我不應該說永遠不會,但這並不是這項變化的重要解釋。

  • And one other thing.

    還有一件事。

  • We actually track a statistic which is the value pickup on credit loss.

    我們實際上追蹤一個統計數據,即信用損失的價值回升。

  • And because there's such a big mark-to-market, on anything that we lose to credit loss, we need to lease it within the next 15 months before we are worse off.

    而且由於以市價計價如此之大,我們因信用損失而損失的任何東西,我們都需要在未來 15 個月內將其出租,以免我們的情況變得更糟。

  • In other words, if the space remains empty for less than 15 months, given the mark-to-market, we actually make money on that space.

    換句話說,如果該空間空置的時間少於 15 個月,考慮到以市價計算,我們實際上可以在該空間上賺錢。

  • Sure, it's a short-term earnings impact but it's actually a long-term value driver.

    當然,這是短期收益影響,但實際上是長期價值驅動因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Caitlin Burrows, Goldman Sachs.

    凱特琳·布羅斯,高盛。

  • Caitlin Burrows - Analyst

    Caitlin Burrows - Analyst

  • Maybe for a while now, it has seemed like the new leasing was a tougher part of the business but that renewals were doing well, so high retention, maybe slightly less price sensitivity.

    也許有一段時間,新的租賃似乎是業務中比較困難的一部分,但續約表現良好,保留率很高,價格敏感度可能略低。

  • How would you describe that renewal business now?

    您現在如何描述續訂業務?

  • Is there anything changing in the trends that you've noticed and when leases come up for renewal or tenants staying, and if not, why not?

    您注意到,當租約需要續約或租戶留下時,趨勢是否有任何變化?

  • Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

    Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

  • Caitlin, Chris Caton.

    凱特琳,克里斯卡頓。

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • When we look at our pipeline, we still have many of our customers interested in renewing and that trend continues.

    當我們審視我們的管道時,我們仍然有許多客戶對續訂感興趣,而這種趨勢仍在繼續。

  • But there are more new requirements coming to the market, customers looking to grow.

    但市場上出現了更多新的需求,客戶希望能成長。

  • And so we also have seen an expansion in our new leasing pipeline.

    因此,我們也看到了新租賃管道的擴張。

  • So both things can happen at once.

    所以這兩件事可以同時發生。

  • They are not mutually exclusive.

    它們並不互相排斥。

  • Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Caitlin, customers move because they may need more space or they may need less space, or they may need space in a different location.

    凱特琳,客戶搬家是因為他們可能需要更多的空間,或者他們可能需要更少的空間,或者他們可能需要不同位置的空間。

  • And oftentimes, that actually occurs within our portfolio.

    通常,這實際上發生在我們的投資組合中。

  • But when you're sort of 95% leased, the options are limited in the portfolio.

    但當您的 95% 已出租時,投資組合中的選擇就很有限。

  • So sometimes we lose them for that reason.

    所以有時我們會因為這個原因而失去它們。

  • But the preference of most customers in a stable environment is to renew.

    但在穩定的環境下,大多數客戶的偏好是續訂。

  • It's just less costly to do that.

    這樣做的成本較低。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nicholas Yulico, Scotiabank.

    尼古拉斯·尤利科,豐業銀行。

  • Nicholas Yulico - Analyst

    Nicholas Yulico - Analyst

  • Just turning back to the guidance.

    只是回到指導。

  • I guess, Tim, I was wondering if there's any way you could quantify a little bit more some of the impact on what feels like is going to be lower development NOI from stabilization this year versus last year.

    我想,提姆,我想知道是否有任何方法可以更多地量化對今年穩定下來的開發 NOI 與去年相比較低的影響。

  • I mean, you do have the stabilizations and guidance at $2.5 billion.

    我的意思是,你確實有 25 億美元的穩定和指導。

  • Last year was over $4 billion.

    去年的金額超過 40 億美元。

  • So I imagine there's some NOI drag there.

    所以我想那裡有一些NOI阻力。

  • And then also if there's also a capitalized interest issue to think about?

    然後是否還需要考慮資本化利息問題?

  • And I guess with the starts also having now picked up and planning for this year, is 2025 sort of at a worse point in terms of that year-over-year delta on how like development might be weighing on FFO growth this year?

    我猜想,隨著今年的開工率也有所回升並進行規劃,就同比增量而言,2025 年是否處於更糟糕的時刻,今年的發展可能會對 FFO 的增長產生怎樣的影響?

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Thanks, Nick.

    謝謝,尼克。

  • Look, you've got the right elements, of course.

    看,當然,您已經擁有了正確的元素。

  • And the way I might even examine this question, if we look at same-store in '24 compared to bottom line earnings and then do the same embedded in our guidance for '25, pardon me, that delta between the top line and the bottom line is apparent.

    我甚至可以檢查這個問題,如果我們比較 24 年的同店收入與底線收益,然後在我們的 25 年指導中做同樣的事情,請原諒我,頂線和底線之間的增量線很明顯。

  • It's due to the factors you described.

    是由於你所描述的因素所造成的。

  • I would throw in that interest rates as well, even though nominally, when we move from 3.0% to 3.2% interest, doesn't sound like much, but on a percentage basis, that's a driver.

    我也會考慮利率,儘管名義上,當我們從 3.0% 升至 3.2% 時,利率聽起來並不多,但從百分比來看,這是一個驅動因素。

  • The development start volumes being a little bit low to our capacity is starting to be seen as well.

    我們也開始看到開發起始量略低於我們的能力。

  • What I feel good about is that all the things we're describing here are normalizing, in some cases, below trend in others but are going to reset themselves to a new foundation for growth from here, which we're very confident is going to be back up in the levels that we've seen this company historically provide.

    我感覺良好的是,我們在這裡描述的所有事情都在正常化,在某些情況下,低於其他情況的趨勢,但將從這裡重新調整為新的成長基礎,我們非常有信心這將實現回到我們看到這家公司歷史上提供的水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vince Tibone, Green Street.

    文斯·蒂伯恩,格林街。

  • Vince Tibone - Analyst

    Vince Tibone - Analyst

  • Can you discuss rent trends at the market level in a little more detail?

    能否更詳細討論市場層面的租金趨勢?

  • Specifically, could you provide how much rents increased during 2024 in your better markets and how much they fell in 2024 in your weaker markets?

    具體來說,您能否提供 2024 年較好市場的租金上漲了多少,以及 2024 年較弱市場的租金下降了多少?

  • Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

    Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

  • Vince, Chris Caton here.

    文斯,克里斯卡頓在這裡。

  • So I think I'd start by saying let's not go market by market, detail by detail.

    所以我想我首先要說的是,我們不要逐個市場、逐一細節地考察。

  • We're a large global international business, but a couple of touchstones that we've had that I think are worth coming back to.

    我們是一家大型的全球國際企業,但我認為我們擁有的一些試金石值得回顧。

  • So number one, if it's not clear, it should be that international markets outperformed the domestic markets.

    所以第一,如果不清楚的話,應該是國際市場表現優於國內市場。

  • Tim enumerated them on the -- in his script, but whether it's Japan, whether it's Europe broadly, and in particular, some of the geographies there as well as Latin America, that was a clear outperform.

    蒂姆在他的劇本中列舉了這些國家,但無論是日本,還是廣泛的歐洲,特別是那裡的一些地區以及拉丁美洲,其表現都明顯優於大盤。

  • And then within the US, really talked about this dynamic of Southern California and the rest of the business.

    然後在美國,真正談論了南加州和其他行業的動態。

  • In Southern California, we had rents down 25% on a net basis so a meaningful reset in rates there.

    在南加州,我們的租金淨額下降了 25%,因此對那裡的租金進行了有意義的調整。

  • And so then by contrast, when you look at sort of US ex SoCal, it was only down modestly in the year.

    相比之下,當你看看美國前南加州的情況時,你會發現這一年僅略有下降。

  • Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And the best-performing markets would be in single digits up, and the worst performing markets other than SoCal would be in single digits down.

    表現最好的市場將出現個位數成長,而除南加州以外表現最差的市場將出現個位數下降。

  • And just while we're on the subject of SoCal, just there are two issues that I think the market is not focused on.

    就在我們討論南加州這個主題時,我認為市場沒有關注兩個問題。

  • One is this whole discussion about immigration and its impact on labor supply and the impact of that on construction costs; and secondly, the pressure that the rebuilding efforts are going to put on material supplies and labor.

    一是關於移民及其對勞動力供應的影響以及對建築成本的影響的整個討論;其次,重建工作對物資供應和勞動力造成的壓力。

  • I think all of those things are going to drive replacement costs significantly higher.

    我認為所有這些因素都會導致更換成本顯著上升。

  • And so that spread that you've heard us talk about, the 50%, I would bet that that spread is going to widen significantly.

    因此,您聽到我們談論的 50% 的差距,我敢打賭,這個差距將會顯著擴大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Blaine Heck, Wells Fargo.

    布萊恩·赫克,富國銀行。

  • Blaine Heck - Analyst

    Blaine Heck - Analyst

  • Can you give an update on your overall mark-to-market throughout the portfolio?

    您能否介紹整個投資組合的整體以市價計算的最新情況?

  • And secondly, I guess, how should we think about the cadence of same-store NOI throughout 2025?

    其次,我想,我們該如何看待2025年全年同店NOI的節奏?

  • You're coming off a fourth quarter at 6.7% cash same-store NOI.

    第四季的同店現金 NOI 為 6.7%。

  • So should we expect it to gradually come down through about '25 and end the year somewhere below that 4.5% cash midpoint?

    那麼,我們是否應該預期它會在 25 年左右逐漸下降,並在年底低於 4.5% 的現金中點?

  • Or is there more nuance and seasonality in the forecast, given that you mentioned, I think, that occupancy would build back up towards the end of the year?

    或者,鑑於您提到,我認為入住率將在年底前回升,預測中是否存在更多細微差別和季節性?

  • Any commentary there would be helpful.

    那裡的任何評論都會有幫助。

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Blaine, it's Tim.

    布萊恩,是蒂姆。

  • For the first part on the lease mark-to-market, I described that it's about 30% at the end of '24.

    對於按市值計價的租賃的第一部分,我描述到 24 年底約為 30%。

  • We really don't break that out for you in a very significant geographic detail.

    我們確實不會為您提供非常重要的地理細節。

  • You can certainly take it away that it broadly is representing the United States and you know the state of rents in places like SoCal.

    你當然可以認為它廣泛代表了美國,而且你知道南加州等地的租金狀況。

  • So I'll leave it to you to unpack from there.

    所以我將讓您從那裡打開包裝。

  • In terms of the cadence of same-store growth, I would -- I think rent change is going to be relatively level over the quarters for that part of it, so it's really going to be a function of what's going on in occupancy.

    就同​​店成長的節奏而言,我認為這部分的租金變化在各個季度中將保持相對水平,因此它實際上將取決於入住率的變化。

  • And I described that we think in the next coming quarters, we'll see a little bit of give-back on occupancy is our expectation.

    我描述說,我們認為在接下來的幾個季度中,我們的預期是入住率會得到一些回饋。

  • I hope to outperform that, but that's followed by a rebuild.

    我希望能超越這一點,但接下來是重建。

  • So you would see some lower same-store potentially in the front half and then it would grow in the second half.

    因此,您可能會在前半段看到同店數量下降,然後在下半年出現成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Catherwood, BTIG.

    湯姆·卡瑟伍德,BT​​IG。

  • Tom Catherwood - Analyst

    Tom Catherwood - Analyst

  • Tim, if memory serves me, you previously talked about, I think, $7 billion to $8 billion of data center spend over the next five years.

    提姆,如果我沒記錯的話,您之前談過,我想,未來五年資料中心的支出將達到 70 億至 80 億美元。

  • I think you mentioned 10 gigawatts of data center opportunities in your prepared remarks, which is likely above the top end of that previous range.

    我認為您在準備好的發言中提到了 10 吉瓦的資料中心機會,這可能高於先前範圍的上限。

  • Are we thinking of that correctly?

    我們的想法正確嗎?

  • And if so, what are your thoughts on data center spend as we look out over the next three to five years for Prologis?

    如果是這樣,當我們展望普洛斯未來三到五年時,您對資料中心支出有何看法?

  • Daniel Letter - President

    Daniel Letter - President

  • Tom, this is Dan.

    湯姆,這是丹。

  • I'll take that one.

    我會接受那個。

  • So yes, that's -- you're thinking about this correctly.

    所以是的,你的想法是正確的。

  • You should think about 10 gigawatts over the next 10 years.

    您應該考慮未來 10 年 10 吉瓦。

  • We've built internal capabilities over the last 1 year, 1.5 years, and we've been just getting deeper on our pipeline and have a lot more confidence in the numbers that you've heard.

    我們在過去 1 年、1.5 年裡建立了內部能力,我們的管道越來越深入,並且對您聽到的數字更有信心。

  • Like we said, we've got 1.4 gigawatts secured power.

    正如我們所說,我們擁有 1.4 吉瓦的安全電力。

  • We've got 1.6 gigawatts in the advanced stages of procurement.

    我們有 1.6 吉瓦處於採購後期階段。

  • We've got another 1.5 gigawatts of applications that are right behind that.

    緊隨其後的是另外 1.5 吉瓦的應用程式。

  • But all in, it's 10 gigawatts over the next 10 years.

    但總而言之,未來 10 年發電量將達到 10 吉瓦。

  • And that doesn't even touch upon the universe of opportunities.

    這甚至還沒有觸及機會的範圍。

  • This is coming from a portfolio of 6,000 buildings and 15,000 acres of land that we own or control.

    這來自我們擁有或控制的 6,000 棟建築物和 15,000 英畝土地的投資組合。

  • So the universe of opportunities is much greater than that.

    因此,機會的範圍遠不止於此。

  • Tim?

    提姆?

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, I'll just come back to maybe what was also underneath your question there on the sheer amount of spend.

    是的,我會回到你的問題背後關於支出的絕對金額的​​可能是什麼。

  • And you see this quarter, Elk Grove, as I mentioned, a great example of the playbook that we have at the moment is to recycle and monetize back out of these assets.

    你看這個季度,埃爾克格羅夫,正如我所提到的,我們目前的策略的一個很好的例子就是從這些資產中回收和貨幣化。

  • That may take a different form over time but the point is we will free up capital.

    隨著時間的推移,這可能會採取不同的形式,但重點是我們將釋放資本。

  • We have an internal risk budget set up for this business that is sufficient for the team to execute.

    我們為這項業務制定了內部風險預算,足以供團隊執行。

  • Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • One other thing, it's always not easy to translate megawatts into dollars.

    另一件事是,將兆瓦轉換成美元總是不容易。

  • For example, Elk Grove started out being a powered shell and ended up being a turnkey.

    例如,Elk Grove 最初是一個動力外殼,最終成為一個交鑰匙設備。

  • So that will maybe increase the capital spend by a factor of 2.

    因此,這可能會使資本支出增加 2 倍。

  • So we're more comfortable projecting megawatts than dollars, but regardless, we can handle it.

    因此,我們更願意投射兆瓦而不是美元,但無論如何,我們可以處理它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Thillman, Baird.

    尼克·希爾曼,貝爾德。

  • Nick Thillman - Analyst

    Nick Thillman - Analyst

  • Maybe digging in a little bit more into the development starts and kind of maybe geographic mix and build-to-suit sort of mix of the two.

    也許會更深入研究開發的開始,以及地理組合和兩者的客製化組合。

  • I know you guys have tilted a little bit more ex-US on the development starts here in '24, but as '25, are you expecting to start more in the US or what's the mix shake-out there?

    我知道你們對 24 年開始的開發工作更傾向於美國以外的地區,但作為 25 年,你們是否期望在美國開始更多的開發工作,或者那裡的混合變化是什麼?

  • And then you noticed the pickup in the build-to-suit side.

    然後你注意到定制側的拾音器。

  • So is that still going to be a strong proponent of that start this year?

    那麼,這仍然是今年開局的有力支持者嗎?

  • Daniel Letter - President

    Daniel Letter - President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Nick, this is Dan.

    尼克,這是丹。

  • Last year was a slow year for development starts in the US.

    去年是美國開發起步緩慢的一年。

  • I do see that picking up.

    我確實看到這種情況有所好轉。

  • Hard for us to give you a mix at this point because as I said in some remarks earlier, we have so many opportunities, literally hundreds of opportunities.

    我們現在很難為您提供混合方案,因為正如我在之前的一些評論中所說,我們有很多機會,實際上有數百個機會。

  • And most of this land is ready to go.

    這片土地的大部分已經準備好投入使用。

  • So we're going to pay attention on a deal-by-deal basis, market by market and make decisions that way.

    因此,我們將專注於逐筆交易、逐個市場,並以此方式做出決策。

  • We do see build-to-suits improving year-over-year as well.

    我們確實看到訂製服裝也逐年改善。

  • Our long-term average on build-to-suits is about 40% of the overall development starts.

    我們的長期平均客製化量約為整體開發開工量的 40%。

  • Hoping to hit that number.

    希望能達到這個數字。

  • We definitely had some big build-to-suits that moved from '24 to '25 so we're hopeful that those make it.

    我們確實有一些大型訂製套裝從 24 年轉移到了 25 年,所以我們希望它們能夠成功。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Mueller, JPMorgan.

    麥克·穆勒,摩根大通。

  • Mike Mueller - Analyst

    Mike Mueller - Analyst

  • What was the solar FFO contribution in '24?

    24 年太陽能 FFO 的貢獻是多少?

  • And what are you assuming for '25, given the growth that you're seeing in that business?

    考慮到您在該業務中看到的成長,您對 25 年有何假設?

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Mike, in '25, across the Essentials businesses, I'll provide that in a little detail.

    麥克,在 25 年,我將在 Essentials 業務中提供一些詳細資訊。

  • We see probably $0.10 to $0.14 of overall FFO contribution from the three businesses.

    我們預計這三項業務對 FFO 的整體貢獻可能為 0.10 至 0.14 美元。

  • Solar, it's pretty limited in mobility right now, to be honest.

    老實說,太陽能目前的移動性相當有限。

  • It's predominantly coming from solar and the operating essentials business.

    它主要來自太陽能和營運必需品業務。

  • Across 2024, that number was $0.07 to $0.08.

    2024 年,這一數字為 0.07 美元至 0.08 美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Spector, Bank of America.

    傑夫·斯佩克特,美國銀行。

  • Jeff Spector - Analyst

    Jeff Spector - Analyst

  • I know Hamid touched a bit on some of the executive orders or discussions from yesterday's transition.

    我知道哈米德談到了昨天過渡期間的一些行政命令或討論。

  • I wanted to just follow up on the latest discussion around tariffs, and if there's anything else to add to some of the executive orders that were executed yesterday.

    我想跟進有關關稅的最新討論,以及昨天執行的一些行政命令是否還有其他內容需要補充。

  • Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

    Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

  • Jeff, Chris Caton here.

    傑夫,克里斯卡頓在這裡。

  • So look, on tariffs, we follow the news just like you do, and it's really too early to speculate to how these policies will land and be implemented and the customer response.

    所以看,在關稅方面,我們和你們一樣關注新聞,現在猜測這些政策將如何落地、實施以及客戶的反應還為時過早。

  • Couple of considerations.

    有幾個考慮因素。

  • Number one is, look, our business revolves around consumption. 90% or more of the customer base is really serving consumers so that's really the critical area to track.

    第一是,你看,我們的業務圍繞著消費。 90% 或更多的客戶群真正為消費者提供服務,因此這確實是需要追蹤的關鍵領域。

  • Now as it relates to trade, we do think the historical precedent is instructive, and we stand by the views that we shared on our last call as well as the white paper we published in November.

    現在,就貿易而言,我們確實認為歷史先例具有指導意義,我們堅持我們在上次電話會議以及 11 月發布的白皮書中所分享的觀點。

  • A couple of highlights there.

    其中有幾個亮點。

  • Over the last eight years, trade has grown 30% on an inflation-adjusted basis, and supply chains adapted to changes in trade policy.

    過去八年,經通膨調整後的貿易成長了 30%,供應鏈也適應了貿易政策的變化。

  • So trade with China is effectively flat over those eight years, whereas Asia ex China is up nearly 75%.

    因此,這八年中與中國的貿易實際上持平,而除中國以外的亞洲地區則成長了近 75%。

  • Mexico is up 40%.

    墨西哥上漲了 40%。

  • At the same time, over the same time period, US domestic production rose only 3%.

    同時,同期美國國內產量僅成長 3%。

  • And really, the US just doesn't have the labor to produce more goods here and so tariffs are inflationary.

    實際上,美國沒有勞動力在這裡生產更多商品,因此關稅會導致通貨膨脹。

  • So trade policy earlier was crafted to accomplish industrial goals while minimizing the risk to consumers, and the administration will be guided by having a strong economy and tariffs are counter to that.

    因此,早期制定的貿易政策是為了實現工業目標,同時最大限度地降低消費者的風險,政府將以強勁的經濟為指導,而關稅則與此相反。

  • Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I would add just one comment.

    我只想添加一條評論。

  • I think that Mexico and let's drag Canada into that because it's usually used in the same sentence, it's primarily an immigration discussion.

    我認為墨西哥,讓我們把加拿大也拖進去,因為它通常用在同一個句子中,這主要是移民討論。

  • Because at the end of the day, the combination of deporting people and wanting to put tariffs on, I don't know where the labor is going to come from, it's either going to come from China Plus One or it's going to come from Mexico.

    因為歸根結底,驅逐人員和想要徵收關稅的組合,我不知道勞動力將從哪裡來,要么來自中國加一,要么來自墨西哥。

  • And my bet is that it's going to come from Mexico but under new immigration controls and policies.

    我敢打賭,它將來自墨西哥,但受到新的移民控制和政策的影響。

  • I think with respect to China, container doesn't care whether it's coming from Vietnam or China.

    我認為就中國而言,貨櫃並不關心它是來自越南還是中國。

  • It's going to be pretty much the same dynamic.

    這將是幾乎相同的動態。

  • And it's driven by geopolitics.

    這是由地緣政治所驅動的。

  • It's not really driven by economics.

    它並不是真正由經濟驅動的。

  • At the end of the day, I think the new administration and the old administration were smart enough to understand that tariffs are highly inflationary.

    歸根究底,我認為新政府和舊政府都夠聰明,能夠理解關稅會導致高度通貨膨脹。

  • Forget about the narrative.

    忘記敘述。

  • But at the end of the day, given the limitations on labor, tariffs are going to be extremely inflationary.

    但歸根結底,考慮到勞動力的限制,關稅將導致極度通膨。

  • We're going to have them, for sure, we're going to have more of them.

    我們將會擁有它們,當然,我們將會擁有更多。

  • But I think they're going to be more moderated once the other political objectives are achieved.

    但我認為一旦其他政治目標實現,他們的態度就會更加溫和。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brendan Lynch, Barclays.

    布倫丹·林奇,巴克萊銀行。

  • Brendan Lynch - Analyst

    Brendan Lynch - Analyst

  • That was very helpful color on the tariffs and how we should think about them.

    這對於關稅以及我們應該如何考慮它們非常有幫助。

  • Maybe you could just relay what the discussions you're having with tenants are about how they're viewing tenants, excuse me, how they're viewing tariffs.

    也許您可以轉述您與租戶進行的討論,內容是他們如何看待租戶,對不起,他們如何看待關稅。

  • Are they pulling inventory into the US faster than they would otherwise or taking more of a wait-and-see approach?

    他們會比其他情況更快地將庫存轉移到美國,或更多地採取觀望態度?

  • Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think some of the de minimis people have pulled more trade into the US in anticipation of some of this.

    我認為一些微不足道的人已經將更多的交易吸引到了美國,因為他們預期會發生這種情況。

  • But that is only shifting volumes maybe a quarter or two.

    但這只改變了銷量的一兩個季度。

  • It's not going to be able to affect the long term.

    從長遠來看,這不會產生影響。

  • So there's going to be some noise in the numbers that you'll see in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year.

    因此,您將在第四季度和明年第一季看到的數字中出現一些噪音。

  • But I think that the fundamentals are going to take over starting in the second quarter.

    但我認為基本面將從第二季開始接手。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Carroll, RBC Capital Markets.

    麥可卡羅爾,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

  • Michael Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Carroll - Analyst

  • I wanted to touch on the promote income recognized during this quarter.

    我想談談本季確認的促銷收入。

  • Is there something different with the data center sale that allowed PLD to earn this promote?

    資料中心銷售是否有什麼不同使得 PLD 能夠獲得此促銷?

  • And correct me if I'm wrong but I thought the USLF didn't have a promote opportunity until the second quarter of 2026.

    如果我錯了,請糾正我,但我認為 USLF 直到 2026 年第二季才有晉昇機會。

  • So I guess, did this pull this forward?

    所以我想,這是否推動了這個進程?

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Mike, well, all of our funds beyond the three-year recurring promote events or sometimes incentive fees can be earned at the end of the life of a closed-end funds.

    麥克,好吧,除了三年定期促銷活動或有時獎勵費用之外,我們所有的基金都可以在封閉式基金生命週期結束時賺取。

  • Our vehicles typically provide for promote opportunity upon completion of some kind of successful development.

    我們的車輛通常在完成某種成功開發後提供促銷機會。

  • Now in funds like USLF or PELP, which are typically operating vehicles, you don't see very much of that.

    現在,在 USLF 或 PELP 等通常是營運工具的基金中,你看不到太多這樣的情況。

  • But here, we had a large development, redevelopment opportunity in Elk Grove that we frankly, I have to think of it this way, Prologis is building a business here.

    但在這裡,我們在埃爾克格羅夫有一個巨大的開發、再開發機會,坦白說,我必須這樣想,普洛斯正在這裡開展業務。

  • We're bearing all of the G&A and cost of this data center business that our funds are going to enjoy the benefits of.

    我們承擔該資料中心業務的所有一般管理費用和成本,我們的資金將從中受益。

  • So we are structuring and have structured compensated for those activities, and that's what's reflected in this quarter.

    因此,我們正在為這些活動建立架構並為其提供補償,這就是本季所反映的。

  • Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • It's not just development.

    這不僅僅是發展。

  • Remember, one of the big advantages that we have in this business over other people is that we can actually procure stuff ahead of time.

    請記住,我們在這個行業比其他人擁有的一大優勢是我們實際上可以提前採購東西。

  • And that oftentimes puts us in a position to be able to convert on leasing opportunities because the timeline for delivery becomes compressed.

    這通常使我們能夠轉換租賃機會,因為交貨時間被壓縮。

  • And obviously, to the extent we do that with our balance sheet, there's some value creation that comes out of that as well.

    顯然,就我們在資產負債表上做到這一點而言,也會從中產生一些價值創造。

  • And we can do that because we have multiple data center opportunities.

    我們可以做到這一點,因為我們有多個資料中心的機會。

  • And as long as you're smart about procuring the right stuff that's fairly fungible, you can move it around.

    只要你聰明地購買了相當可替代的正確東西,你就可以移動它。

  • And all of that is done very transparently and working with the independent advisory councils of these funds.

    所有這些都是非常透明地完成的,並與這些基金的獨立諮詢委員會合作。

  • So yes, we have other opportunities to earn fees based on value we contribute.

    所以,是的,我們還有其他機會根據我們貢獻的價值賺取費用。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

    約翰金 (John Kim),BMO 資本市場。

  • John Kim - Analyst

    John Kim - Analyst

  • On data centers, given the amount of capital and capacity that you've highlighted today, any updated thoughts on establishing a data center fund or some kind of structure with recurring income?

    在資料中心方面,考慮到您今天強調的資本量和容量,對於建立資料中心基金或某種具有經常性收入的結構有什麼最新的想法嗎?

  • And then specific to this year, it looks like you have $100 million of data center developments that are your partners' share in your current pipeline.

    然後具體到今年,看起來您有 1 億美元的資料中心開發項目,這是您的合作夥伴在當前管道中的份額。

  • Should we assume some margin on this will be recognized this year as a promote income?

    我們是否應該假設今年的一些利潤將被確認為促銷收入?

  • Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Let me take the first part of that question and I'll let Tim take the second part.

    讓我回答這個問題的第一部分,然後讓提姆回答第二部分。

  • We have not yet made the decision as to what we're going to do with the capitalization of our data center business long term.

    我們尚未決定如何長期利用資料中心業務的資本。

  • Let me tell you what the current thinking is.

    我來告訴你現在的想法是什麼。

  • The current thinking is that we are a developer, and that we'll monetize and sell these assets upon completion.

    目前的想法是,我們是開發商,完成後我們將貨幣化並出售這些資產。

  • And we use the capital that they generate as a way of expanding our core logistics business.

    我們利用他們產生的資本來擴展我們的核心物流業務。

  • That's the strategy today.

    這就是今天的策略。

  • We may expand that strategy to include a fund management approach, either a dedicated fund or possibly expanding the investment mandate of some of the existing open-end funds, obviously after talking to our investors about that, as a way of including some data centers within limits within those funds.

    我們可能會擴大這一策略,納入一種基金管理方法,要么是專門基金,要么可能擴大一些現有開放式基金的投資授權,顯然是在與我們的投資者討論這一問題之後,作為將一些資料中心納入其中的一種方式。

  • That decision hasn't been made because right now, we're thinking about it as a funding mechanism for our core logistics development business.

    尚未做出這項決定,因為目前我們正在考慮將其作為我們核心物流開發業務的融資機制。

  • But we may change course that.

    但我們可能會改變這一方針。

  • One thing we will not do is hold 100% interest in data centers on our balance sheet because the capital requirements of that are going to be -- even for us, are going to be pretty significant.

    我們不會做的一件事是在我們的資產負債表上持有資料中心 100% 的權益,因為即使對我們來說,資本要求也將非常重要。

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • And John, it's Tim.

    約翰,是蒂姆。

  • Maybe I'll grab you off-line to see what you're looking at to believe some of the current activity is within funds.

    也許我會讓你下線看看你在看什麼,相信目前的一些活動是在資金範圍內的。

  • But it is not, it's on our balance sheet.

    但事實並非如此,它在我們的資產負債表上。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Todd Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    托馬斯 (Todd Thomas),KeyBanc 資本市場。

  • Todd Thomas - Analyst

    Todd Thomas - Analyst

  • I just wanted to, first, follow up on the comments about the post-election leasing that you've experienced.

    首先,我想跟進一下您所經歷的有關選舉後租賃的評論。

  • And thinking about the 2025 guidance, does the guidance and occupancy assumption assume that leasing interest or demand in '25 remains consistent with what you've seen in the last 10 weeks or so?

    考慮到 2025 年的指導,指導和入住率假設是否假設 25 年的租賃興趣或需求與您在過去 10 週左右看到的情況保持一致?

  • And then also, not sure if I missed this, but can you provide what '24 net absorption was and what your expectation is for '25 and how that -- you expect that to trend throughout the year?

    另外,不確定我是否錯過了這一點,但您能否提供 24 年的淨吸收量是多少以及您對 25 年的預期是什麼以及您預計全年的趨勢如何?

  • Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • We actually prepare the business plan for this following year usually in the October, November time frame.

    實際上,我們通常在 10 月、11 月的時間範圍內準備下一年的業務計劃。

  • So I would say the period was right bridging around the election.

    所以我想說,這段期間正好是選舉前後的過渡時期。

  • It was too early to see some of the activity that we've seen.

    現在來看我們所看到的一些活動還為時過早。

  • I would say compared to where our head was at the time, we are more encouraged.

    我想說,與我們當時的想法相比,我們更加受到鼓舞。

  • But let's leave it at that and let's see whether this recovery has significant legs or not.

    但我們就這樣吧,看看這次復甦是否有顯著的效果。

  • But yes, we've put our plan together right before the election and have left it there.

    但是,是的,我們在選舉前就制定了計劃,並將其留在那裡。

  • Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

    Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

  • And as it relates to net absorption, we saw net absorption of 39 million square feet in the fourth quarter.

    就淨吸收量而言,我們看到第四季的淨吸收量為 3,900 萬平方英尺。

  • That amounted to just shy of 150 million square feet in the year, and we are looking for 185 million, 190 million square feet of net absorption in 2025.

    今年的淨吸收量接近 1.5 億平方英尺,我們預計 2025 年淨吸收量將達到 1.85 億至 1.9 億平方英尺。

  • And that is expected to build over the course of the year.

    預計這一目標將在今年內建立。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vikram Malhotra, Mizuho.

    維克拉姆·馬爾霍特拉,瑞穗。

  • Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

    Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

  • Just two quick ones.

    就兩個快的。

  • So you gave the GAAP NOI components.

    所以你給了 GAAP NOI 的組成部分。

  • I'm just wondering if the cash NOI growth, I think you have like 3.5%, 4% bumps.

    我只是想知道現金 NOI 成長是否會出現 3.5%、4% 的波動。

  • Assuming the cash spread is probably in the 30s, but do you mind just bridging GAAP and cash NOI, number one?

    假設現金利差可能在 30 多歲,但您介意將 GAAP 和現金 NOI 連接起來嗎?

  • And then just number two on the net absorption view, I think Chris mentioned it will build through the year.

    然後,就淨吸收量觀點而言,排名第二的是,我認為克里斯提到它將在今年內不斷增加。

  • But in the past, you sort of highlighted the rate environment is sort of crucial to that view.

    但在過去,您強調了利率環境對這種觀點至關重要。

  • I'm wondering now what the offset is, given the view of rates might be stable.

    鑑於利率可能穩定,我現在想知道抵銷金額是多少。

  • Maybe there's even a rate hike.

    也許甚至還會升息。

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Vikram, that's for the cash same-store.

    維克拉姆,這是同店現金。

  • As is always the case, the most kind of volatile difference that we can see between GAAP and cash ending the year is going to be what's going on in free rent.

    像往常一樣,我們在年底看到的公認會計準則和現金之間最不穩定的差異將是免費租金的情況。

  • And we are seeing free rent levels grow back to, I'll say, normal amounts of the lease value.

    我想說,我們看到免費租金水準恢復到租賃價值的正常水準。

  • So that's our expectation for the year and reflected in our guidance.

    這就是我們對今年的預期,並反映在我們的指導中。

  • Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

    Chris Caton - Managing Director, Global Strategy and Analytics

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And as it relates to net absorption, Vikram, Dan touched on the transition in customer engagement and thinking earlier in the call.

    由於與淨吸收率相關,Vikram、Dan 在電話會議的早些時候談到了客戶參與度和思維的轉變。

  • And so as we look at 2025, that work, in our view, is really customers have been deferring decision-making.

    因此,當我們展望 2025 年時,我們認為,這項工作實際上是客戶一直在推遲決策。

  • Now they see the new administration is they have -- there's a decline in uncertainty, and that has translated to better decision-making and is part of the lift in net absorption that we expect over the course of 2025.

    現在,他們看到了新政府的做法——不確定性有所下降,這已轉化為更好的決策,也是我們預計 2025 年淨吸收量提升的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vince Tibone, Green Street.

    文斯·蒂伯恩,格林街。

  • Vince Tibone - Analyst

    Vince Tibone - Analyst

  • How does the higher treasury rate impact your view of where unlevered IRRs and stabilized cap rates could head in the future?

    較高的國債利率如何影響您對無槓桿內部報酬率和穩定上限利率未來走向的看法?

  • And ultimately, like how do you determine what is the appropriate yield for a new US speculative development start?

    最終,你如何確定美國新的投機性開發的適當收益率是多少?

  • Daniel Letter - President

    Daniel Letter - President

  • Yes, Vince, I'll take that one.

    是的,文斯,我要那個。

  • So first of all, there has been volatility in the 10-year for some time.

    首先,十年來一直存在波動。

  • And if you look at last year, the 10-year was bouncing 100 basis points up and down throughout the year, and we saw volumes actually grow back to pre-COVID levels.

    如果你看看去年,10 年期公債全年上下波動了 100 個基點,我們看到交易量實際上恢復到了新冠疫情之前的水平。

  • So deals are happening.

    所以交易正在發生。

  • I think there's this notion out there that there's this 1:1 correlation between 10-year and value, which is just -- it's not the case when you look at the total return.

    我認為有這樣一種觀念,即 10 年期和價值之間存在 1:1 的相關性,但當你查看總回報時,情況並非如此。

  • There's many more considerations to take into investment decisions, replacement cost, the lease mark-to-market and what have you.

    在投資決策、重置成本、以市值計價的租賃等方面還有很多因素需要考慮。

  • So what does that mean for values for the year?

    那麼這對今年的價值意味著什麼呢?

  • I mean, we saw three of the last four quarters values uptick in our open-ended funds.

    我的意思是,我們看到過去四個季度中有三個開放式基金的價值上漲。

  • We've not seen deals die, whether -- we had a big disposition year last year.

    我們還沒有看到交易失敗,去年我們是否進行了大規模處置。

  • We did not see any deals re-trade because of it.

    我們沒有看到任何交易因此而重新交易。

  • And we're seeing deeper pools right now.

    我們現在看到更深的水池。

  • Logistics is still a very attractive investable category for investors out there.

    對於投資者來說,物流仍然是一個非常有吸引力的投資類別。

  • And so we feel strongly that we'll see a pretty strong year on the transaction market, maybe a slow start to the year.

    因此,我們強烈認為,我們將看到交易市場非常強勁的一年,也許今年的開局會很緩慢。

  • As it relates to appropriate yield for spec, like I've said so many times in this call, we have just such a large universe of opportunities.

    因為它關係到規格的適當收益率,就像我在這次電話會議中多次說過的那樣,我們擁有如此巨大的機會。

  • We're always going to be looking for that spread, that 125 to 150 basis point spread from a market cap rate to our yield.

    我們總是會尋找這樣的利差,即市值利率與收益率之間 125 到 150 個基點的利差。

  • Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, let me add a little color to that.

    是的,讓我為此添加一點色彩。

  • Look, and you can go back to calls a couple of years back when money used to be free.

    你看,你可以回到幾年前打電話的方式,那時錢是免費的。

  • We always talked about the market not having price real estate with 0% or 1% treasury costs.

    我們總是談論市場上沒有 0% 或 1% 財務成本的價格房地產。

  • Historically, the treasuries have been trading at about 200 basis points over the implied inflation rate.

    從歷史上看,國債的交易價格一直比隱含通膨率高出約 200 個基點。

  • That's been kind of -- other than when the Fed has been doing weird stuff, that's been the norm.

    這一直是——除了聯準會做了奇怪的事情之外,這已經是常態了。

  • So given that inflation expectations were then 2% and now they're more like 3%, heading back down to 2%, let's call it 2% to 3%, that means treasuries are going to be 4% to 5%.

    因此,考慮到通膨預期當時為 2%,現在更像是 3%,回落至 2%,我們稱之為 2% 至 3%,這意味著國債將是 4% 至 5%。

  • I mean, that is where they should be and that's where they will be, okay?

    我的意思是,那是他們應該在的地方,也是他們會在的地方,好嗎?

  • 4% or 5% treasuries.

    4%或5%的國債。

  • That means 7% to 8% IRRs unlevered gives you anywhere between 300 and 500 basis points of real inflation-adjusted return.

    這意味著 7% 至 8% 的無槓桿 IRR 可為您提供 300 至 500 個基點的實際通膨調整回報。

  • That's appropriate for real estate, which is somewhere between stocks and bonds.

    這適用於介於股票和債券之間的房地產。

  • So those are the relationships.

    這些就是關係。

  • I think the market just got used to free money for too long.

    我認為市場已經習慣了釋放資金太久了。

  • And -- but the real estate market never priced assets as if that money was going to be free forever.

    而且——但房地產市場從來沒有對資產進行定價,就好像這筆錢將永遠免費一樣。

  • Some of the leverage buyers may have had a different math on this.

    一些槓桿買家對此可能有不同的計算。

  • But in terms of institutional capital and what return it takes to attractive to real estate, those are the numbers.

    但就機構資本以及房地產吸引力所需的回報而言,這些就是數字。

  • On the issue of margins, what's interesting is that Dan is correct.

    在利潤問題上,有趣的是丹是對的。

  • We look for about 125, 150 basis point premium over exit cap rates.

    我們預計退出上限利率將溢價約 125 至 150 個基點。

  • We used to want that also when cap rates were 8% or 9%.

    當資本化率為 8% 或 9% 時,我們曾經也希望如此。

  • It's just that with cap rates at 5% or 6%, 125 basis points is a lot bigger margin.

    只是在上限利率為 5% 或 6% 的情況下,125 個基點的利潤率大得多。

  • So ironically, margins actually have increased even in this area in this period where there's been some weakness in the past year.

    諷刺的是,在過去一年出現一些疲軟的時期,即使在這一領域,利潤率實際上也有所增加。

  • Still our margins are way above our expectations and the way we underwrite properties.

    儘管如此,我們的利潤率仍然遠高於我們的預期以及我們承保房產的方式。

  • So I can't really explain that one but the margins have been very healthy.

    所以我無法真正解釋這一點,但利潤率非常健康。

  • And I think it's because it's so difficult to bring on land in some of these supply-constrained markets.

    我認為這是因為在這些供應受限的市場中獲得土地非常困難。

  • Justin Meng - Senior Vice President, Head of Investor Relations

    Justin Meng - Senior Vice President, Head of Investor Relations

  • Operator, final question, please.

    接線員,最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Blaine Heck, Wells Fargo.

    布萊恩·赫克,富國銀行。

  • Blaine Heck - Analyst

    Blaine Heck - Analyst

  • Hamid, just taking a step back, I wanted to see if you could talk about your relative level of visibility into the operating environment, as you all were kind of formulating your outlook and commentary for this call.

    哈米德,退後一步,我想看看您是否可以談談您對營運環境的相對可見性水平,因為您都在為這次電話會議制定您的展望和評論。

  • It just seems like there are a lot more moving pieces, with Trump taking office, the wildfires in LA, tenants who have been taking longer to make decisions, the prospect of tariffs, deportation, amongst other things.

    似乎還有更多令人感動的事情,例如川普上台、洛杉磯的野火、需要更長時間才能做出決定的租戶、關稅的前景、驅逐出境等等。

  • So I guess how did you take all of those variables into account?

    所以我猜你是如何考慮所有這些變數的?

  • And do you think there's maybe a higher level of conservatism built in because of all that?

    你認為這可能會導致更高程度的保守主義嗎?

  • Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Hamid Moghadam - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Look, let's be very frank about this.

    聽著,讓我們非常坦率地談談這一點。

  • This company has never reduced guidance in the last 12 years.

    該公司在過去 12 年中從未降低過指導值。

  • Last year, we reduced guidance as we saw the softness going in.

    去年,由於看到市場疲軟,我們減少了指導。

  • Can I look you in the eye and tell you there is not a degree of confidence -- conservatism built into our projections when you work through everybody in the system that's involved, all the way from the person who is leasing the space in the market all the way up to Tim?

    我可以看著你的眼睛告訴你,當你對所涉及的系統中的每個人進行調查時,從租賃市場空間的人到所有的人,我們的預測中都沒有一定程度的信心——保守主義蒂姆的路?

  • I can't look you in the eyes and tell you that, so there is a bit an ask even internally within the company, to be quite frank with you.

    我無法看著你的眼睛告訴你這一點,所以坦白說,即使在公司內部,也有一些要求。

  • My view is that the market is going to surprise people in the back half of the year.

    我的觀點是,今年下半年的市場將會帶給人們驚喜。

  • That's my view.

    這是我的觀點。

  • I've been wrong before but that's my view.

    我以前錯了,但這是我的觀點。

  • I would say the rest of the team -- I shouldn't say the rest of the team.

    我會說團隊的其他成員——我不應該說團隊的其他成員。

  • I would say the real estate people are generally there and some of our financial people are a bit more conservative.

    我想說的是,房地產界的人普遍都在那裡,而我們的一些金融界人士則比較保守。

  • And there is no point to answer.

    而且沒有必要回答。

  • There is a wide range of views on this, so you're smart; you figure it out.

    對此有很多種觀點,所以你很聰明;你弄清楚了。

  • Daniel Letter - President

    Daniel Letter - President

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • So that was the last question, and thank you all for joining the call today.

    這是最後一個問題,感謝大家今天加入電話會議。

  • As we wrap up, we have a few thoughts we'd like to leave you with.

    在結束時,我們有一些想法想留給您。

  • First, we're very optimistic about the recent activity and the improving customer sentiment, and we have expectations of stronger momentum throughout the course of the year.

    首先,我們對最近的活動和不斷改善的客戶情緒非常樂觀,我們預計全年的勢頭會更強勁。

  • Second, we're making great progress in our data center business.

    其次,我們的資料中心業務取得了長足的進步。

  • We have a growing pipeline, a very skilled team.

    我們有一個不斷增長的管道,一個非常熟練的團隊。

  • All of this is highlighted by this Elk Grove Village transaction.

    所有這一切都在埃爾克格羅夫村的這筆交易中得到了凸顯。

  • And then lastly, we're very confident in the long-term earnings power of this company.

    最後,我們對這家公司的長期獲利能力非常有信心。

  • Looking forward to connecting at the upcoming conferences here or during the next quarter's call.

    期待在即將召開的會議或下一季的電話會議上進行交流。

  • Thanks for joining.

    感謝您的加入。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference.

    女士們、先生們,今天的會議到此結束。

  • You may disconnect your lines at this time.

    此時您可以斷開線路。

  • Thank you for your participation.

    感謝您的參與。