Prologis Inc (PLD) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Prologis Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Jill Sawyer, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Jill. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加安博 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係高級副總裁吉爾·索耶 (Jill Sawyer)。謝謝你，吉爾。你可以開始了。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. The supplemental document is available on our website at prologis.com under Investor Relations.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。補充文件可在我們的網站 prologis.com 的「投資者關係」下取得。

I'd like to state that this conference call will contain forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the market and the industry in which Prologis operates as well as management's beliefs and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance, and actual operating results may be affected by a variety of factors. For a list of those factors, please refer to the forward-looking statement notice in our 10-K or other SEC filings.

我想聲明的是，本次電話會議將包含聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於對普洛斯經營所在市場和行業的當前預期、估計和預測以及管理層的信念和假設。前瞻性陳述並非績效保證，實際經營績效可能會受到多種因素的影響。有關這些因素的列表，請參閱我們的 10-K 或其他 SEC 文件中的前瞻性聲明通知。

Additionally, our third quarter results press release and supplemental do contain financial measures such as FFO and EBITDA that are non-GAAP. And in accordance with Reg G, we have provided a reconciliation to those measures.

此外，我們的第三季業績新聞稿和補充資料確實包含非 GAAP 財務指標，例如 FFO 和 EBITDA。根據 Reg G，我們對這些措施進行了調節。

I'd like to welcome Tim Arndt, our CFO, who will cover results, real-time market conditions and guidance. Hamid Moghadam, our CEO and our entire executive team are also with us today.

我要歡迎我們的財務長 Tim Arndt，他將介紹業績、即時市場狀況和指導。我們的執行長 Hamid Moghadam 和整個執行團隊今天也與我們在一起。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

這樣，我就把電話轉給提姆。

Thanks, Jill. Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining our call. The third quarter marked the continuation of themes we've been anticipating for more than a year, namely growing supply translating to increased market vacancy, continued moderation of demand and market rent growth that will slow until the low levels of new starts drive reduced availability over time. We've operated in accordance with these views in both our approach to leasing as well as timing of new development.

謝謝，吉爾。大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。第三季標誌著我們一年多來一直預期的主題的延續，即供應成長將導致市場空置率增加、需求持續放緩以及市場租金成長將放緩，直到新開工率較低導致供應量減少時間。我們在租賃方式以及新開發案的時機選擇上都會依照這些觀點進行營運。

What's incremental to our forecast is that continued hawkish posture from central banks and the impact it's had on rates is delaying decision-making and willingness to take expansion space early. The geopolitical backdrop has clearly become more troubling as well, amounting to a lack of clarity that will likely weigh on demand. In the meantime, and also playing out to our expectations, is that our existing lease mark-to-market will drive durable earnings growth as it did in delivering record rent change this quarter as well as strong earnings and same-store growth.

與我們的預測相比，央行持續的鷹派姿態及其對利率的影響正在推遲決策和提前擴張空間的意願。地緣政治背景顯然也變得更加令人不安，缺乏明確性可能會影響需求。同時，也符合我們的預期的是，我們現有的按市值計價的租賃將推動持久的盈利增長，就像本季度創紀錄的租金變化以及強勁的盈利和同店增長一樣。

We remain focused on the fact that we own assets critical to the supply chain with long-term secular drivers that remain intact. Further, the outlook for future supply will continue to face structural barriers, ultimately driving occupancy rents and values.

我們仍然關注這樣一個事實：我們擁有對供應鏈至關重要的資產，且長期長期驅動因素保持不變。此外，未來供應前景將繼續面臨結構性障礙，最終推高入住租金和價值。

In terms of our results, we had an excellent quarter with core FFO, excluding net promoter income, of $1.33 per share. This result includes approximately $0.03 of onetime items related to interest and termination income as well as the timing of expenses, which we can address in Q&A. Occupancy ticked up over the quarter to 97.5%, aided by retention of 77%. Net effective rent change was a record 84% of our share, with notable contributions from Northern New Jersey at 200%, Toronto at 187% and Southern California at 165%. Same-store growth on a net effective and cash basis was 9.3% and 9.5%, respectively, driven predominantly by rent change.

就我們的業績而言，我們度過了一個出色的季度，核心 FFO（不包括淨發起人收入）為每股 1.33 美元。結果包括大約 0.03 美元的與利息和終止收入以及費用時間相關的一次性項目，我們可以在問答中解決這些問題。本季入住率上升至 97.5%，留存率為 77%。淨有效租金變化占我們份額的創紀錄的 84%，其中新澤西州北部貢獻最大，佔 200%，多倫多佔 187%，南加州佔 165%。同店淨有效成長率和現金成長率分別為 9.3% 和 9.5%，主要由租金變動推動。

We saw market rents grow roughly 60 basis points during the quarter, the slower pace embedded in our forecast. In combination with the strong build of in-place rents, our lease mark-to-market recalculates to 62% as of September. We raised approximately $1.4 billion in new financings at an average interest rate of 3.2%, comprised principally of $760 million within our ventures as well as a recast of our yen credit facility, increasing our aggregate line availability.

我們看到本季市場租金成長約 60 個基點，這是我們預測中較慢的成長速度。結合當地租金的強勁成長，截至 9 月份，我們的租賃以市價重新計算為 62%。我們以 3.2% 的平均利率籌集了約 14 億美元的新融資，其中主要包括我們的企業內部的 7.6 億美元以及對日元信貸安排的重新調整，從而增加了我們的總額度可用性。

In combination with our cash position, we ended the quarter with a record $6.9 billion of liquidity.

結合我們的現金狀況，本季末我們的流動性達到創紀錄的 69 億美元。

Finally, it's noteworthy that our debt-to-EBITDA has remained very low and essentially flat all year, hovering in the mid-4x range despite our increased financing activity, a demonstration of the tremendous growth in our nominal EBITDA.

最後，值得注意的是，儘管我們的融資活動有所增加，但我們的債務與 EBITDA 之比仍然非常低，全年基本持平，徘徊在 4 倍左右，這表明我們名義 EBITDA 的巨大增長。

Turning to our markets. While rising, vacancy remains historically very low in the U.S., Mexico and Europe. Market vacancy increased approximately 70 basis points during the quarter in the U.S. driven by low absorption as well as recently delivered but unleased completions. Europe experienced similar dynamics with an overall increase in market vacancy of 50 basis points. At the macro level, our expectations for the U.S. are for completions to outpace net absorption by a cumulative 150 million to 200 million square feet over the next 3 quarters. Then over the subsequent 3 quarters, we see that trend reversing with demand exceeding supply and recovering to net 75 million to 125 million square feet.

轉向我們的市場。美國、墨西哥和歐洲的空缺率雖然上升，但仍處於歷史低點。由於吸收量低以及最近交付但未出租的竣工項目，本季度美國市場空置率增加了約 70 個基點。歐洲也經歷了類似的動態，市場空缺總體增加了 50 個基點。在宏觀層面，我們對美國的預期是未來三個季度完工量將累積超過淨吸收量 1.5 億至 2 億平方英尺。然後在接下來的 3 個季度中，我們看到這種趨勢發生逆轉，需求超過供應，並恢復到淨面積 7,500 萬至 1.25 億平方英尺。

That trend may extend further into 2025 as we believe development starts over the next several quarters are likely to remain low. Whatever the precise path, we expect that as vacancy normalizes over the long term, our portfolio will outperform the market due to both its location and quality as well as the strength of our relationships and operating platform. In this regard, our portfolio has been largely resilient to moderating demand. Our teams would describe the depth of our leasing pipeline as consistent with the last few quarters. And coming fresh off of 1 of our customer advisory board sessions, it's clear that our customers have plans to continue to expand their footprint, increasing capacity and resiliency.

這種趨勢可能會進一步延續到 2025 年，因為我們認為未來幾季的開發開工率可能會維持在較低水準。無論具體路徑如何，我們預計，隨著長期空缺的正常化，我們的投資組合將因其位置和品質以及我們的關係和營運平台的實力而跑贏市場。在這方面，我們的投資組合在很大程度上能夠適應需求放緩的情況。我們的團隊將我們的租賃管道的深度描述為與過去幾季一致。剛結束我們的客戶諮詢委員會會議之一，很明顯，我們的客戶計劃繼續擴大其足跡，提高容量和彈性。

However, what's also clear is that they are slowing such investments until there is more clarity in the economic environment. In the U.S., rents increased in most of our markets with the strongest located in the Sunbelt, Mid-Atlantic and Northern California region. Europe and Mexico were also bright spots for growth in the quarter. Rents across our Southern California submarkets declined approximately 2% as it continues to adjust to higher levels of vacancy. While the markets and outlooks are mixed, we remain confident in continued market rent growth in the U.S. and globally over the coming year, albeit at a slower pace while the pipeline continues to get absorbed.

然而，同樣明確的是，他們正在放緩此類投資，直到經濟環境更加明朗。在美國，大部分市場的租金均出現上漲，其中陽光地帶、中大西洋和北加州地區的租金上漲最為強勁。歐洲和墨西哥也是本季的成長亮點。隨著空置率的不斷提高，南加州子市場的租金下降了約 2%。儘管市場和前景好壞參半，但我們仍然對未來一年美國和全球市場租金的持續成長充滿信心，儘管在管道繼續被吸收的情況下，速度會放緩。

From our appraisals, U.S. values declined approximately 3% while European values remain stable, in fact, having a very modest write-up. The difference isn't too surprising as the Fed's language around inflation and the economy has had more effect in the U.S. capital markets, driving the 10-year up 100 basis points since our last earnings call compared to the [bun] at just 50 basis points. We believe that this is likely another instance as we saw 1 year ago where U.S. appraisals at the end of the quarter have not had sufficient time to react to the increase in rates and we are thus pausing on appraisal-based activity in USLF for at least 1 quarter.

根據我們的評估，美國的價值下降了約 3%，而歐洲的價值則保持穩定，事實上，增值幅度非常小。這種差異並不令人意外，因為聯準會關於通膨和經濟的措辭對美國資本市場產生了更大的影響，自我們上次財報電話會議以來，推動10 年期國債上漲100 個基點，而[bun ] 的漲幅僅50 個基點點。我們認為，這可能是我們一年前看到的另一個例子，美國在季度末的評估沒有足夠的時間對利率的上漲做出反應，因此我們暫停 USLF 中基於評估的活動至少1 季度。

Elsewhere values in Mexico are up 8.5%, while China experienced its first meaningful decline of 6.5%, a write-down that we don't believe has fully run its course. Our funds experienced their first quarter of net positive inflows with approximately $180 million of new commitments versus new redemption requests of $115 million. Given other activity in the quarter, the net redemptions have been reduced from their height of $1.6 billion to approximately $700 million or roughly 2% of third-party AUM.

墨西哥其他地區的房價上漲了 8.5%，而中國的房價首次大幅下跌 6.5%，我們認為這種減記尚未完全結束。我們的基金第一季出現淨正流入，新承諾約 1.8 億美元，而新贖回請求為 1.15 億美元。考慮到本季的其他活動，淨贖回已從 16 億美元的最高水準減少至約 7 億美元，約佔第三方資產管理規模的 2%。

In terms of our own deployment development starts ramped up during the quarter, crossing $1 billion, over half of which is related to a data center opportunity in our central region, a testament to our higher and better use strategy and strategically located land bank. Also notable is the acquisition of $118 million of land, including a strategic parcel in Las Vegas, which will build out an additional 10 million square feet over time and brings our total build-out of land globally to over $40 billion.

就我們自己的部署開發而言，本季開始增加，超過10 億美元，其中一半以上與我們中部地區的資料中心機會有關，這證明了我們更高、更好的利用戰略和戰略性的土地儲備。同樣值得注意的是收購了1.18 億美元的土地，其中包括拉斯維加斯的一塊戰略地塊，隨著時間的推移，該地塊將額外建設1000 萬平方英尺，使我們在全球的土地建設總額超過400 億美元。

We are laser-focused in identifying and executing on value creation in our core business, our energy business and their adjacencies. Combined with the debt capacity and liquidity we've worked hard to build and preserve, we see the environment as rich with opportunity.

我們專注於確定並執行我們的核心業務、能源業務及其相關業務的價值創造。結合我們努力建立和維護的債務能力和流動性，我們認為環境充滿機會。

Moving to guidance. We are increasing average occupancy to range between 97.25% and 97.5%. As a result, we are increasing our same-store guidance to a range of 9% to 9.25% on a net effective basis and 9.75% to 10% on a cash basis. We're maintaining our strategic capital revenue guidance, excluding promotes, to a range of $520 million to $530 million and adjusting G&A guidance to range between $390 million and $395 million. Our development start guidance has increased to a new range of $3 billion to $3.5 billion at our share, driven primarily from the data center start mentioned earlier.

轉向指導。我們正在將平均入住率提高到 97.25% 至 97.5% 之間。因此，我們將同店指導提高至淨有效率 9% 至 9.25%，現金基準 9.75% 至 10%。我們將策略資本收入指引（不包括促銷）維持在 5.2 億至 5.3 億美元之間，並將一般管理費用指引調整至 3.9 億至 3.95 億美元之間。我們的開發啟動指導已提高到我們所佔份額的 30 億美元至 35 億美元的新範圍，這主要是由前面提到的資料中心啟動所推動的。

We have $500 million of contribution and disposition activity during the quarter. And given our commentary on USLF valuations, we are pausing our planned contributions into that vehicle this quarter and reducing our combined contribution and disposition guidance to a range of $1.7 billion to $2.3 billion.

本季我們有 5 億美元的捐款和處置活動。鑑於我們對 USLF 估值的評論，我們將暫停本季對該工具的計劃捐款，並將我們的綜合捐款和處置指導減少至 17 億美元至 23 億美元的範圍。

In the end, we are adjusting guidance for GAAP earnings in the range of $3.30 to $3.35 per share. We are increasing our core FFO, including promotes guidance, to a range of $5.58 to $5.60 per share and are increasing core FFO, excluding promotes, to range between $5.08 and $5.10 per share, growth of nearly 10.5%.

最後，我們將 GAAP 收益指引調整為每股 3.30 美元至 3.35 美元。我們正在將核心 FFO（包括促銷指導）提高至每股 5.58 美元至 5.60 美元，並將核心 FFO（不包括促銷）提高至每股 5.08 美元至 5.10 美元，增長近 10.5%。

I know that many of you are focusing on 2024, so I'd like to take an opportunity to remind you that the Duke portfolio will be entering the same-store pool in 2024, which will widen the recently observed delta between net effective and cash same-store growth. This is, of course, because Duke rents were mark-to-market at close 1 year ago, so its contribution to net effective same-store growth and earnings will be minimal even though the cash rent change will be on par with the rest of the Prologis portfolio.

我知道你們很多人都在關注 2024 年，所以我想藉此機會提醒你們，杜克大學的投資組合將於 2024 年進入同店池，這將擴大最近觀察到的淨有效和現金之間的差異同店增長。當然，這是因為杜克大學的租金在一年前收盤時按市價計算，因此儘管現金租金變化將與其他公司持平，但其對淨有效同店增長和盈利的貢獻將微乎其微。普洛斯產品組合。

In closing, we are navigating the current environment assured that whatever the economy brings in the short term, we are positioned to outperform over the long term. This stems from not only the premier logistics portfolio and customer franchise with one of the best balance sheets amongst corporates, but also highly visible earnings and portfolio growth ahead of us. We know that turbulent times can bring opportunity for those who are prepared, and that's been central to our strategy and management as a company.

最後，我們正在應對當前的環境，並確信無論短期經濟會帶來什麼，我們都將在長期內跑贏大盤。這不僅源於一流的物流投資組合和客戶特許經營權以及企業中最好的資產負債表之一，而且還源於我們面前高度可見的盈利和投資組合增長。我們知道，動盪的時代可以為那些做好準備的人帶來機遇，這也是我們公司策略和管理的核心。

I'd like to also remind you of our upcoming Investor Forum on December 13 in New York, our first in 4 years. We're looking forward to spending the day with you sharing more about our business, outlook and opportunities ahead. Additional information is available on our website and in our earnings press release.

我還想提醒您注意我們即將於 12 月 13 日在紐約舉行的投資者論壇，這是我們 4 年來的第一次論壇。我們期待與您共度這一天，分享更多有關我們的業務、前景和未來機會的資訊。更多資訊可在我們的網站和收益新聞稿中找到。

And with that, I will hand it back to the operator for your questions.

然後我會將其交還給接線員以解答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯（Michael Goldsmith）。

I mean, Tim, can you help us reconcile some of the comments from the prepared remarks? You talked about maybe softer demand, but then there's -- you're calling for accelerating the number of build-to-suit developments. At the same time, occupancy has been stronger than anticipated, and that's before the lower development start hit the market. So how should we think about all of these moving pieces and just the trajectory of the supply-demand dynamics as we exit '23 and into 2024?

我的意思是，提姆，你能幫我們協調一些準備好的評論中的評論嗎？您談到了需求可能會疲軟，但您也呼籲加快客製化開發的數量。同時，入住率強於預期，而且這是在較低的開發開工進入市場之前。那麼，當我們退出 23 年並進入 2024 年時，我們應該如何考慮所有這些變化因素以及供需動態的軌跡？

Sure. Demand is definitely softer. It's closer to normal, maybe even a little bit below normal at this instance. There is a lot of latent demand that large companies having large requirements are continuing to talk to us about build-to-suits, but they're reluctant to pull the

當然。需求肯定更加疲軟。在這種情況下，它更接近正常，甚至可能低於正常一點。有很多潛在的需求，有大量需求的大公司正在繼續與我們談論定制，但他們不願意拉動

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

And the next question comes from the line of Craig Mailman with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的克雷格‧梅爾曼 (Craig Mailman)。

Let me get some color here because I'm having trouble here. But I just wanted to touch on the data center build-to-suits in the quarter and see if you guys could break out what the yields on those were relative to the blended yield on the overall development starts. And maybe just give a little bit more color about the opportunity with your partner on this one, the plan on whether you're going to hold this or anticipate selling upon completion of them, just a little bit more about the capacity within the land bank to do more of these data center sales?

讓我在這裡得到一些顏色，因為我在這裡遇到了麻煩。但我只是想談談本季資料中心的客製化建設，看看你們是否可以了解這些收益率與整體開發開始的混合收益率之間的關係。也許只是對與您的合作夥伴在這方面的機會提供更多的色彩，關於您是否要持有該項目或預計在完成後出售的計劃，以及關於土地儲備內的容量的更多信息做更多這些資料中心的銷售？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Ladies and gentlemen, please remain on the line. We're just having a little technical difficulty here.

女士們先生們，請保持通話。我們只是遇到了一點技術困難。

I'm sorry, we're having some technical difficulties here, and I can't really explain it. Can you guys hear me?

抱歉，我們遇到了一些技術困難，我無法解釋。你們聽得到我說話嗎？

Hello. We can hear you.

你好。我們能聽到你的聲音。

Yes, you can hear me again. Okay. So let me finish the first question and then I'll go through the second question to the extent I heard it, which wasn't great.

是的，你可以再聽到我的聲音。好的。因此，讓我完成第一個問題，然後我將按照我聽到的程度來解決第二個問題，這不太好。

On the first question, what I wanted to say is that the data centers account for a pretty significant volume of the build-to-suits and that's why they're higher. But industrial logistics build-to-suits are kind of on par and in line with our expectations. The reason occupancy is higher, it's unique to the quality of our portfolio and just a natural role of leases, but market occupancy is slightly lower. So we're outperforming the market by more than we did before. I think that covers the first question.

關於第一個問題，我想說的是，資料中心在客製化建築中所佔的比例相當大，這就是它們更高的原因。但工業物流的客製化在某種程度上符合我們的預期。入住率較高的原因是我們投資組合的品質獨特，也是租賃的自然作用，但市場入住率略低。因此，我們的表現比以前好於市場。我認為這涵蓋了第一個問題。

The second question was how should we think about the build-to-suits in terms of its effect on our going in yields and the like. And for that, I'm going to turn it over to Dan here. But generally, we -- the build-to-suit strategy of ours is an extension of our higher and best use strategy. We own a lot of high-quality land in markets that are in the path of development and our popular data center markets. And while we may occasionally buy land for data centers, our primary strategy is converting our existing portfolio to data center product. To the extent they have power availability, we're getting a lot of people knocking on our door for those opportunities. And we think going forward, it's going to be a pretty significant part of our activity, although it's lumpy and less prone to precise predictions like the logistics business, but you'll hear more about that.

第二個問題是我們應該如何考慮客製化產品對我們的收益率等的影響。為此，我將把它交給丹。但總的來說，我們的客製化策略是我們更高和最佳使用策略的延伸。我們在正在發展的市場以及我們熱門的資料中心市場擁有大量優質土地。雖然我們偶爾可能會購買資料中心土地，但我們的主要策略是將現有的投資組合轉換為資料中心產品。只要他們有電力供應，就會有很多人來敲我們的門尋求這些機會。我們認為，展望未來，這將成為我們活動的一個非常重要的部分，儘管它是不穩定的，並且不太容易像物流業務那樣進行精確預測，但您會聽到更多相關資訊。

Now strategically, this is important to understand, we funded our business without issuing any equity basically since 2012. Last 10 or 11 years, we have not issued any equity. How we finance our business is by disposing of real estate that was nonstrategic to us, logistics real estate. And we've done a lot of dispositions. You can think of the data center strategy as a way of funding our growth. That's where the growth capital is going to come from. We are not, at the moment, interested in being in that business in terms of long-term ownership. It's more of a development and harvest strategy. And that capital that comes out of the margins of those deals will be a substantial contributor to our growth going forward.

從策略上講，理解這一點很重要，自 2012 年以來，我們基本上沒有發行任何股權來為我們的業務提供資金。過去 10 年或 11 年，我們沒有發行任何股權。我們為業務融資的方式是處置對我們來說非策略性的房地產，也就是物流房地產。我們已經做了很多配置。您可以將資料中心策略視為為我們的發展提供資金的一種方式。這就是成長資本的來源。目前，我們對長期擁有該業務不感興趣。這更多的是一種發展和收穫的策略。這些交易利潤的資本將為我們未來的成長做出重大貢獻。

Dan, do you want to talk about the initial yields on the data center?

Dan，您想談談資料中心的初始收益率嗎？

Well, what I would say is on this particular data center, we're under a strict confidentiality so we can't be speaking about any particular deal points by any means. But what I would say is we've been building capabilities internally to ensure that we hit the market for these deals, and you'll see those play out as we announce more data centers going forward.

好吧，我想說的是，在這個特定的資料中心，我們處於嚴格的保密之下，所以我們不能以任何方式談論任何特定的交易點。但我想說的是，我們一直在內部建立能力，以確保我們能夠進入這些交易的市場，當我們宣布更多的資料中心即將推出時，你會看到這些交易的發揮。

What I would say generally, though, without getting specific on this opportunity, we think the margins that come out of our data center business, by definition based on our historic cost of land or even the market value of land, will be orders of magnitude higher than they would be on their logistics build-out. So multiples of a normal margin.

不過，我想說的是，在沒有具體說明這個機會的情況下，我們認為，根據我們的歷史土地成本甚至土地市場價值的定義，我們資料中心業務的利潤將是幾個數量級高於他們的物流建設。所以是正常保證金的倍數。

And the next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa。

I just wanted to follow up on the development and just make sure I understand. On the fourth quarter, I think you've got something like $1.9 billion of planned starts given that you've done about $1.4 billion year-to-date. So just curious, does that include other data centers? Or is that all traditional industrial? And if so, what is the mix between spec and build-to-suit on that fourth quarter starts volume?

我只是想跟進事態發展並確保我理解。鑑於今年迄今已完成約 14 億美元的資金，我認為第四季的計畫啟動資金約為 19 億美元。只是好奇，這是否包括其他資料中心？還是都是傳統工業？如果是這樣，在第四季度開始批量生產時，規格和定制之間的組合是什麼？

Sure, Steve, this is Dan. So the lion's share of our Q4 starts are logistics starts. We have 1, maybe 2 smaller data center starts that we have forecasted. But Overall, it's about 50-50, build-to-suit and spec. And let me just highlight that we've been calling for a back-end loaded forecast for about 4 quarters now. As you -- as we talk about, market development starts now at 65 -- I guess, down 65% from the peak. This is playing out exactly as we expected, and we've been gearing up all year for a really heavy Q4 start volume.

當然，史蒂夫，這是丹。因此，第四季開工的大部分是物流開工。我們預計將有 1 個、也許 2 個較小的資料中心啟動。但總體而言，它大約是 50-50，根據定制和規格而定。讓我強調一下，我們已經要求後端載入預測大約四個季度了。正如我們所說，市場開發現在從 65 開始——我猜，比高峰下降了 65%。這完全符合我們的預期，我們一整年都在為第四季的開工量做好準備。

Yes. The portion of build-to-suits is obviously a lot higher than that if you include the data centers. What that meant was a mix of logistics and -- logistics spec versus build-to-suit.

是的。如果包括資料中心，定制的部分顯然要高得多。這意味著物流和物流規範與客製化的混合。

And the next question comes from the line of Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Todd Thomas。

Question, as you think about 2024, Tim, you mentioned that market rent growth increased 60 basis points relative to last quarter. That's down from 2.5% last quarter. I think you indicated that market rent growth is expected to be positive in the year ahead. As we think about the trajectory of rent growth and what you're anticipating, do you see potential for sequential or year-over-year decreases in market rents in the U.S. or globally over the next few quarters as deliveries outpace absorption? Or do you expect rent growth to stay positive throughout that period during that time frame?

問題是，當你想到 2024 年時，提姆，你提到市場租金成長相對於上季增加了 60 個基點。這比上季度的 2.5% 有所下降。我認為您表示未來一年市場租金預計將出現正成長。當我們考慮租金成長的軌跡以及您的預期時，您認為未來幾季美國或全球市場租金是否有可能因交付量超過吸收量而連續或同比下降的可能性？或者您預計在此期間租金增長將保持正值？

Todd, it's Chris Caton. Thanks for the question. Yes, we expect rent growth to remain positive throughout that time period. Market conditions are stable. And there are a handful of markets that we've talked about that are softer, but by and large, markets are proving resilient with rent growth in line or ahead of inflation.

托德，我是克里斯·卡頓。謝謝你的提問。是的，我們預計在此期間租金將保持正成長。市場行情穩定。我們討論過的一些市場較為疲軟，但總的來說，市場表現出彈性，租金成長與通貨膨脹一致或領先。

And the next question comes from the line of Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的凱特琳·伯羅斯 (Caitlin Burrows)。

Maybe we could talk about property acquisitions a little. I know it's not as large of an activity as developments, but guidance for this year increased while transaction volumes, at an industry level, are down significantly. You did the $3 billion acquisition midyear. So what sorts of acquisitions are most interesting to you today? Could you talk a little bit about who you're buying from, maybe why they're selling and how you get comfortable and what the right price should be?

也許我們可以談談財產收購。我知道這不像開發活動那麼大，但今年的指導增加了，而產業層面的交易量卻大幅下降。你們在年中進行了 30 億美元的收購。那麼，今天您對哪些類型的收購最感興趣呢？您能否談談您從誰那裡購買的產品，也許他們為什麼要出售以及您如何感到舒適以及合適的價格應該是多少？

Sure. It's a dynamic market, and I think that's the essence of your question. It's really hard to get a handle on what the returns should be and how we look at acquisitions. But here is a model for thinking about it. First of all, we are even pickier than we have been with respect to quality and fit with our portfolio. We're not -- before, you had to buy the good with the great in portfolios, and we had to go through the massive exercise of disposing of the properties that we didn't want, which we did actually quite successfully in a declining cap rate environment, and we actually made money on it.

當然。這是一個充滿活力的市場，我認為這就是你問題的本質。確實很難掌握回報應該是多少以及我們如何看待收購。但這裡有一個思考這個問題的模型。首先，我們對品質和與我們的產品組合的契合度比以往更加挑剔。我們不是——以前，你必須購買投資組合中的好東西，我們必須經歷大量處置我們不想要的財產的過程，實際上，在經濟衰退的情況下，我們做得相當成功。上限利率環境，我們實際上從中賺了錢。

But we don't expect that to be the case going forward. So we're really being picky about what we buy. The portfolios that we're going to buy are almost virtually 100% home portfolios. Secondly, if you really think that -- look at where treasuries are, 150 basis points have gone to, call it, 4.5%, 300 basis points increase. Those kinds of properties, core properties, were trading in the high 5s, low 6 IRRs, let's stay away from cap rates because of a mark-to-market complexity of talking about cap rates, but call it 6%. So just adjusting for the change in treasury yields, simplistically, you would have to see a 9% unleveraged IRR.

但我們預計未來不會出現這種情況。所以我們對購買的東西真的很挑剔。我們要購買的投資組合幾乎 100% 是房屋投資組合。其次，如果你真的認為——看看國債的情況，已經上漲了 150 個基點，稱之為 4.5%，即增加了 300 個基點。這些類型的財產，核心財產，以高 5 的 IRR 交易，低 6 的 IRR，讓我們遠離資本化率，因為談論資本化率按市值計價的複雜性，但稱之為 6%。因此，簡單地說，只要根據國債殖利率的變化進行調整，您就必須看到 9% 的無槓桿 IRR。

And that's if supply and demand of capital were sort of in equilibrium, we get a sense that there's going to be more opportunities coming our way, and it is in a capital-constrained environment. And we happen to be in the fortunate position of having a really good balance sheet and able to take advantage of those. I don't think there's going to be distress in the terms of post savings and loan crisis or any of the downturns. But I think the opportunity set is going to exceed the available capital, and I think we'll be taking advantage of that.

也就是說，如果資本的供給和需求達到平衡，我們會感覺到將會有更多的機會出現，而這是在資本受限的環境中。我們很幸運，擁有非常好的資產負債表，並且能夠利用這些優勢。我認為在儲蓄和貸款危機或任何經濟衰退之後不會出現困境。但我認為機會集將超過可用資本，我認為我們將利用這一點。

So I would say unleveraged IRRs that are -- have a 9 handle on them and maybe as much as 9.5, depending on the circumstances. And we are seeing that supply loosen up and come to the market. So expect to see more transactions in the next 6 months. Dan, do you have anything to add?

因此，我想說，無槓桿 IRR 的控制範圍為 9，甚至可能高達 9.5，這取決於具體情況。我們看到供應放鬆並進入市場。因此預計未來 6 個月將會出現更多交易。丹，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

The only thing I would add is our teams around the globe are literally turning over every stone daily. And this is land acquisitions, this is core acquisitions, it's value-add acquisitions and the teams turned too opportunistic right now. And so it's really hard to peg exactly where we're going to land our acquisition volume for the year, which is why you saw us move it up a couple of hundred million after this Phoenix transaction. But overall, I think our teams are going to continue to find opportunistic transactions consistent with what Hamid just said on the returns.

我唯一要補充的是，我們遍布全球的團隊實際上每天都在翻動每一塊石頭。這是土地收購，這是核心收購，這是增值收購，而團隊現在變得過於機會主義。因此，很難準確地確定我們今年的收購量將達到多少，這就是為什麼你看到我們在鳳凰城交易後將收購量提高了數億。但總的來說，我認為我們的團隊將繼續尋找與哈米德剛才關於回報所說的一致的機會主義交易。

And the next question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John Kim。

I just wanted to clarify. So you're expecting over the next few quarters a significant demand shortfall. And I'm wondering if during that time period, are you planning to be more aggressive on rents and concessions to try to hold occupancy? Or are you going to hold rates just given supply is going to start to come down after that? And also, if you could provide an update on the market rental forecast for 2023.

我只是想澄清一下。因此，您預計未來幾季需求將出現嚴重短缺。我想知道在此期間，您是否計劃在租金和優惠方面採取更積極的態度以試圖保持入住率？或者考慮到此後供應量將開始下降，您是否會維持利率不變？另外，您能否提供 2023 年市場租金預測的最新資訊。

Yes. On the rental forecast, I'm afraid you're going to have to wait for that when we issue guidance, and we get into that. And one thing we're going to stay away from is quarter-by-quarter forecasting of rent. It's hard enough to guess what it is on an annual basis, much less on a quarter-to-quarter forecast. So what was the first part of the question? Occupancy, trade-off.

是的。關於租金預測，恐怕您將不得不等待我們發布指導的時間，我們將對此進行討論。我們要避免的一件事是逐季的租金預測。很難猜測每年的情況，更不用說逐季度的預測了。那麼問題的第一部分是什麼呢？佔用，權衡。

It depends on the actual markets. There are about 20% of the markets that I can see us driving for occupancy and about 80% of the markets that are still in equilibrium or tighter. But the key to your question is what you asked in the middle of it, which is, how do you expect that to change? And the reason we're not going to get super aggressive on rents is because we have a belief that -- I mean, just look at the starts, they're down 65%. And even with moderating demand, we're going to get something like 60% or 70% of that shortfall that we're going to encounter in the next 3 quarters shortfall of demand. We're going to get it back in the subsequent 3 quarters. So there's no sense really going cheap. It's just -- but I would say 20% of our markets were going to be more focused on occupancy.

這取決於實際市場。我認為我們正在推動約 20% 的市場入住率，而約 80% 的市場仍處於均衡或更緊張狀態。但你問題的關鍵是你在中間問的是什麼，也就是你期望這種情況如何改變？我們之所以不會在租金方面過於激進，是因為我們相信——我的意思是，只要看看開工率，它們就下降了 65%。即使需求放緩，我們也將在未來 3 個季度遇到需求缺口的 60% 或 70%。我們將在接下來的三個季度內收回它。因此，真正便宜是沒有意義的。只是——但我想說，我們 20% 的市場將更加關注入住率。

And the next question comes from the line of Nicholas Yulico with Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的尼古拉斯‧尤利科 (Nicholas Yulico)。

Just a 2-parter on Southern California. So I guess, first, I want to see if you're seeing any benefit in your portfolio since September in terms of the port being resolved, the worker's strikes impacting L.A. Basin or Inland Empire, are you seeing any benefit there and pickup in activity? And then secondly, just wanted to hear latest thoughts on why you think some of the weakness that you've cited there in rents in Southern California, what that dynamic is out there that would be different than other markets, meaning that Southern California is not a leading indicator for other parts of your portfolio.

只是南加州的兩人。所以我想，首先，我想看看自9 月以來，在港口問題得到解決、影響洛杉磯盆地或內陸帝國的工人罷工方面，您是否看到了您的投資組合中的任何好處，您是否看到了那裡的任何好處以及活動的回升？其次，我只是想聽聽您所提到的南加州租金疲軟的最新想法，以及與其他市場不同的動態是什麼，這意味著南加州不是您投資組合其他部分的領先指標。

Well, Southern California is very geared towards basically inflows. 40% of the inflows into this country came through Southern California, and that number dropped dramatically because of the labor issues. It's too soon to see any recovery because we're also going into the Christmas season and anything that's going to be in the store for Christmas has already been on the water and through the ports and all that. So I think you're going to see the effects of that next year in terms of recovery of flows.

嗯，南加州非常適合基本上流入。流入該國的人口中有 40% 來自南加州，但由於勞工問題，這一數字急劇下降。現在看到任何復甦還為時過早，因為我們也即將進入聖誕節季節，聖誕節商店裡的任何東西都已經上船並通過港口等等。因此，我認為明年您將看到流量恢復的影響。

About half of what used to come through L.A. used to stay in the L.A. Basin, Southern California and half of it was shipped elsewhere. We think the half that stays in Southern California for sure will stay there or come back. And some of the rest will also revert back to Southern California. I'm not smart enough to know whether we're going to get half of it back or 3/4 of it back, but we'll get a pretty substantial portion of it back. It will be more into the first or second quarter of next year before you see them in the numbers. Chris, do you want to add anything?

過去經過洛杉磯的貨物中約有一半停留在南加州的洛杉磯盆地，一半被運往其他地方。我們認為留在南加州的一半人肯定會留在那裡或回來。其餘的一些也將返回南加州。我不夠聰明，不知道我們是要拿回一半還是 3/4，但我們會拿回相當大的一部分。等到明年第一季或第二季你才能在數字中看到它們。克里斯，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes, I'll build on that by saying is the market is digesting the demand and supply picture that Hamid described, we are beginning to see some differentiation in submarkets where L.A., Orange County is proving more resilient and Inland Empire is a bit softer.

是的，我會在此基礎上說，市場正在消化哈米德所描述的供需情況，我們開始看到子市場出現一些分化，其中洛杉磯、奧蘭治縣被證明更具彈性，而內陸帝國則稍顯疲軟。

And the next question comes from the line of Camille Bonnel with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Camille Bonnel。

First, a clarification that I want to get your thoughts on guidance. Can you clarify if the SoCal market rent change in the opening remarks is on a sequential or annual basis? And then I appreciate majority of your leasing for 2023 has been addressed and there's little that could change your core outlook from here. But I want to better understand the level of conservatives being factored into guidance looking into year-end, what could change your views more positively or negatively?

首先，澄清一下，我想了解您對指導的想法。您能否澄清開場白中的南加州市場租金變化是連續變化還是年度變化？然後，我很高興你們 2023 年的大部分租賃問題都已解決，從這裡開始，幾乎沒有什麼可以改變你們的核心前景。但我想更好地了解年底指導中考慮的保守派水平，什麼可以更積極或消極地改變您的觀點？

Camille, it's Tim. Yes, just a clarification on the first part, that was a quarter-over-quarter number in SoCal, the 2% decline. And then in terms of what could change in the fourth quarter, the answer is very little at this point. Certainly on the rent change side of things, most all of that leasing is already inked. We could have some surprises very moderate, I would say, on the occupancy side, but I actually don't expect that. We have a pretty tight range on occupancy, as you know. So I don't think you'll see anything take us outside of our [guidance].

卡米爾，是提姆。是的，只是對第一部分進行澄清，這是南加州的季度環比數字，下降了 2%。至於第四季可能發生的變化，目前答案還很少。當然，在租金變動方面，大部分租賃已經簽署。我想說，在入住率方面，我們可能會帶來一些非常溫和的驚喜，但實際上我並不期望如此。如您所知，我們的入住率範圍非常窄。因此，我認為您不會看到任何超出我們[指導]範圍的事情。

And the next question comes from the line of Ron Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自 Ron Kamdem 與摩根士丹利的對話。

Just a quick 2-parter follow-up. Just one on the development starts and the data centers, which is intriguing. Any way to put some numbers on that on how many starts can be done annually? Is it $200 million? Is it $500 million? Like how big can this get, is the follow-up, number one. And then number two, on sort of the rent growth, I appreciate we want to stay away from sort of specific numbers. But as you're sort of thinking about next year, what are sort of the key markets, Southern California being one potentially being sort of a headwind? Maybe you can you talk about what are some of the neutral or potential tailwinds in terms of markets for next year?

只是一個快速的 2 人後續行動。只有一個關於開發啟動和資料中心的內容，這很有趣。有什麼辦法可以統計出每年可以啟動幾次嗎？是2億美元嗎？是5億美元嗎？就像這能發展到多大，這是後續的、第一名的。第二，關於租金成長，我很高興我們希望遠離具體數字。但當你考慮明年的時候，主要市場是什麼，南加州可能是一個逆風市場​​？也許您可以談談明年市場的一些中性或潛在的推動因素是什麼？

Okay. Your first question was great advertising for our Investor Day because that's what we're going to devote the time to is understanding our Essentials business, our data center business, and all those things. So let me defer answering that question to that date. And by the way, even on that date, you're not going to get as specific an answer as you would like. I just tell you that in advance because these are very lumpy, and it depends what quarter or what your year a deal lands in. Chris, do you want to address the second part?

好的。您的第一個問題是為我們的投資者日做精彩的廣告，因為我們將花時間了解我們的基本業務、我們的資料中心業務以及所有這些事情。因此，讓我推遲到那個日期來回答這個問題。順便說一句，即使在那個日期，您也不會得到您想要的那麼具體的答案。我只是提前告訴你，因為這些非常不穩定，這取決於交易發生在哪個季度或哪一年。克里斯，你想解決第二部分嗎？

Yes, absolutely. I might start by just saying one way to think about rent growth going forward is to think about the replacement cost math. We have really seen construction costs prove resilient and replacement costs prove resilient. And the interest rate dynamic that Hamid described earlier, translates to the rents that are required to warrant new development. So over a medium-term horizon a couple of years, that's going to play one of the most important factors into evaluating rent growth.

是的，一點沒錯。首先我可能會說考慮未來租金成長的一種方法是考慮重置成本數學。我們確實看到建築成本具有彈性，重置成本也具有彈性。哈米德先前描述的利率動態轉化為保證新開發案所需的租金。因此，從幾年的中期來看，這將成為評估租金成長的最重要因素之一。

As it relates to different markets, which was your question, I think it's probably fair to point to Tim's comments on the markets that have proved the strongest so far this year. Mid-Atlantic, Sunbelt, Northern California are markets that stand out in my mind in the U.S. And there is a range of them globally, whether it's Toronto, Mexico, Germany and the Netherlands. So that's what I would look to.

由於它涉及不同的市場，這是你的問題，我認為指出蒂姆對今年迄今為止最強勁的市場的評論可能是公平的。在美國，大西洋中部、陽光地帶、北加州是我心目中最突出的市場。全球也有許多這樣的市場，無論是多倫多、墨西哥、德國或荷蘭。這就是我所期待的。

And the next question comes from the line of Anthony Powell with Barclays.

下一個問題來自安東尼·鮑威爾與巴克萊銀行的對話。

I guess, one more on market rent growth. I think last quarter, you gave a 2023 forecast of 7% to 9%. I don't know if you updated that today. And are you going to be providing those kind of updated on a quarterly basis going forward?

我想，還有一個關於市場租金成長的問題。我認為上個季度，您對 2023 年的預測是 7% 到 9%。不知道今天有沒有更新。今後您是否會每季提供此類更新？

So hey, the view is 7% in the United -- globally and in the U.S. We're about mid-6s so far this year. So that implies growth in the fourth quarter, as we described earlier. And then as it relates to forward guidance, I'd like to underline our upcoming Investor Day in December as the time to look for new information.

所以，嘿，在美國、全球和美國，這一比例是 7%。今年到目前為止，我們的比例約為 6%。正如我們之前所描述的，這意味著第四季度的成長。然後，由於涉及前瞻性指引，我想強調即將到來的 12 月投資者日是尋找新資訊的時間。

And the next question comes from the line of Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的麥可‧卡羅爾。

How does the 150 million to 200 million square feet gap between supply and demand over the next 3 quarters compare to your expectation for all of 2023? Now correct me if I'm wrong, I believe that you highlighted that there's going to be about 150 million square foot gap in '23. I mean is that still a fair assumption? Or has this delay in demand due to the market uncertainty has kind of wind that out a little bit?

未來 3 季 1.5 億至 2 億平方英尺的供需缺口與您對 2023 年全年的預期相比如何？現在糾正我，如果我錯了，我相信你強調了 23 年將有大約 1.5 億平方英尺的缺口。我的意思是這仍然是一個公平的假設嗎？或者說，由於市場不確定性而導致的需求延遲是否已經有所緩解？

Thanks for the question. Again, it's Chris. So just to give you the total numbers, we are on pace to see 490 million square feet of deliveries in the United States this year against 195 million square feet of net absorption. So that gap is wider. And some of that relates simply not so much to the softness in demand that you're describing, but the timing of deliveries of the pipeline. If anything, our view of where the pipeline is going has come down, not gone up over the last 90 days related to the trend in starts. And so really, it's really timing as it relates to that gap.

謝謝你的提問。又是克里斯。因此，僅向您提供總數，我們預計今年美國的交付量將達到 4.9 億平方英尺，而淨吸收量將達到 1.95 億平方英尺。所以這個差距更大了。其中一些與您所描述的需求疲軟無關，而是與管道的交付時間有關。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是我們對管道走向的看法在過去 90 天內與開工趨勢相關，而不是上升。事實上，這確實是一個時機，因為它與這個差距有關。

Yes. But I would say our previous forecast did not anticipate the sudden jump in rates that has come in the last 1.5 months. We thought that treasuries were going to settle in the mid-3s, not mid-4s, maybe mid- to high 3s and not mid 4s or approaching 5. So that, I think, has taken and shifted some of the demand out. But the thing that encourages me and we'll have to see -- wait to see this, is that companies are not shutting down their dialogue with us in terms of their long-term needs. And our build-to-suit discussions are every bit as good as they've been across most cycles.

是的。但我想說的是，我們先前的預測並未預見到過去 1.5 個月內利率的突然上漲。我們認為國債將穩定在 3 秒左右，而不是 4 秒左右，也許是 3 秒左右，而不是 4 秒左右或接近 5 秒。因此，我認為，這已經吸收並轉移了一些需求。但令我感到鼓舞的事情是，我們必須等待——等待看到這一點，那就是企業不會就其長期需求而停止與我們的對話。我們的客製化討論與大多數週期中的討論一樣好。

But they're not pulling the trigger just yet given that those things generally involve major capital expenditures, and those are all being scrutinized by the C-suite pretty tightly these days.

但考慮到這些事情通常涉及重大資本支出，而且這些天這些事情都受到了最高管理層的嚴格審查，因此他們還沒有立即採取行動。

And the next question comes from the line of Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自維克拉姆·馬爾霍特拉 (Vikram Malhotra) 與瑞穗 (Mizuho) 的關係。

I just wanted to get a better sense of, you talked about deferring growth, I guess, across -- in rent growth across SoCal, Mid-Atlantic, I think you referenced Sunbelt. Can you just give us a better sense of the magnitude of this dispersion? And I guess, Chris, do you expect this dispersion to continue over the next, call it, 6 to 12 months?

我只是想更了解，你談到了推遲成長，我想，整個南加州、大西洋中部的租金成長，我想你提到了陽光地帶。您能否讓我們更了解這種分散的程度？我猜，Chris，您預計這種分散現象會在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內持續下去嗎？

So the magnitude of the dispersion. So just to be clear, in terms of strength versus weakness because I want to be sure that wasn't conflated. The strong markets include the Mid-Atlantic, Sunbelt, Northern California. And really, there are only a handful of soft markets. SoCal we've talked about. [India] is a market that's been flat all year. In terms of dispersion, there is a fair amount of saneness in the trend, whether you look at it on a quarterly or a calendar year basis. So rents are trending in the annualized rate from the third quarter that Tim discussed with some markets moderately ahead like the strong market that I described and then just really 1 or 2 markets that are notably weaker. So I guess, I suppose there's that dispersion.

所以色散的大小。因此，需要明確的是，就優勢與劣勢而言，因為我想確保這沒有混為一談。強勁的市場包括大西洋中部、陽光地帶、北加州。事實上，軟市場屈指可數。我們已經討論過南加州。 [印度]是一個全年表現平平的市場。就分散性而言，無論是按季度還是按日曆年來看，趨勢都相當理智。因此，從第三季開始，租金的年化率趨勢是蒂姆與一些稍微提前的市場討論的，例如我描述的強勁市場，然後只有一兩個市場明顯疲軟。所以我想，我想有這種分散。

And the next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自邁克·穆勒 (Mike Mueller) 與摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的對話。

I know you've used land in the past for higher and better uses. But do you think you'd be looking at the development -- the data center developments to the same degree that you would be looking at them if you weren't seeing a normalizing of the traditional industrial demand?

我知道您過去曾將土地用於更高更好的用途。但是，您認為您會像在沒有看到傳統工業需求正常化的情況下那樣關注資料中心的發展嗎？

Absolutely because the margins embedded in the data center development, Mike, are orders of magnitude higher. Certainly on the basis of market value under industrial use or purchase products under industrial use. So we would be doing that even if the market was tight as a drum, and by the way, let's not get carried away. The market is in the high 4s occupancy -- I mean vacancy, sorry. That is -- absent '21 and '22, I would have said that would be my Christmas present would be vacancy rates that are sub-5% in any part of the cycle other than the last couple of years.

麥克，絕對是因為資料中心開發的利潤高出幾個數量級。當然是根據工業用途的市場價值或購買工業用途的產品。因此，即使市場緊張如鼓，我們也會這樣做，順便說一句，我們不要得意忘形。市場的入住率高達 4s——我的意思是空置，抱歉。也就是說，如果沒有“21”和“22”，我會說，除了過去幾年之外，在周期的任何部分中，空置率都將低於 5%，這將是我的聖誕禮物。

So the markets are strong, but the data center opportunities, if you can get the power, the demand is there and it's been sort of boosted by AI and a bunch of other things. So we see sort of a rush of the large players, and they're all big credit players into the business, and they can't get enough of this stuff to keep up with demand.

因此，市場很強勁，但資料中心的機會，如果你能獲得電力，需求就存在，而人工智慧和其他一些東西在一定程度上推動了需求。因此，我們看到大型企業紛紛湧入，他們都是該行業的大信貸企業，但他們無法獲得足夠的產品來滿足需求。

And the next question comes from the line of Bill Crow with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自比爾·克勞和雷蒙德·詹姆斯的台詞。

Two quick questions. First of all, on the economy, I'm wondering if you're seeing any changes to your watch list among your tenants or any sectors in particular that are starting to show weakness. And the second question is really in order to get the kind of 9%, the returns on acquisitions, do you have to target longer walls? Or how do you get that if we don't see distress among current holders or owners?

兩個簡單的問題。首先，關於經濟，我想知道您的租戶名單或任何開始表現疲軟的行業是否有任何變化。第二個問題是，為了獲得 9% 的收購報酬率，你是否必須瞄準更長的牆？或者，如果我們沒有看到當前持有人或所有者的困境，你如何得到這一點？

So our credit issues are fairly modest, and they usually involve retailers, and we have a built-in 85% plus mark-to-market on those leases that we've identified as potential risks. And we've actually captured some of those spreads and already improved our position by buying out those leases or just getting them back and re-leasing the space in a short period of time. So I don't think credit is a particularly important consideration in this cycle.

因此，我們的信用問題相當溫和，而且通常涉及零售商，而且我們對那些被我們確定為潛在風險的租賃按市值計價 85% 以上。實際上，我們已經捕獲了其中的一些價差，並透過買斷這些租約或在短時間內收回並重新出租空間，已經改善了我們的地位。所以我認為信貸在這個週期中並不是一個特別重要的考慮因素。

And then the second question on the extended walls being necessary for the kind of IRRs we're targeting in acquisitions.

然後第二個問題是關於我們在收購中瞄準的 IRR 類型所必需的擴展牆。

We're using the same lease terms and acquisitions than we always have been. There's not -- I mean, if you look at 30 years of history, I mean, our walls have been between 4.5 years and 6 years or something like that on average in our leases. So it doesn't move around that much.

我們使用與以往相同的租賃條款和收購。我的意思是，如果你看看 30 年的歷史，我的意思是，我們的圍牆在我們的租約中平均使用了 4.5 年到 6 年或類似的時間。所以它不會移動那麼多。

Yes. Then I would just pile on there that we look at these opportunities of whether it be 1- to 3- or 4-year years of negative leverage as an opportunity really. We look at total return on every deal. And again, we take it through our filters of quality, mark-to-market and -- whether we want to hold it long term or not. And then we layer that on with our potential Essentials revenues and synergies and otherwise. So while it's one consideration, so are all these other factors.

是的。然後我會繼續說，我們會審視這些機會，無論是 1 到 3 年還是 4 年的負面槓桿確實是一個機會。我們關注每筆交易的總回報。再次，我們會透過品質、按市場定價以及我們是否想長期持有它的過濾器來篩選它。然後我們將其與我們潛在的 Essentials 收入和協同效應等結合。因此，雖然這是一個考慮因素，但所有其他因素也是如此。

And the next question comes from the line of Blaine Heck with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自布萊恩赫克 (Blaine Heck) 與富國銀行 (Wells Fargo) 的對話。

Just wanted to follow up on guidance. You touched on this a little bit. The guidance implies a decrease in FFO in the fourth quarter. Can you just talk a little bit more specifically about some of the moving pieces there and onetime items that are influencing the numbers in the third or fourth quarters and whether any of that noise is going to persist into 2024?

只是想跟進指導。你稍微觸及了這一點。該指引意味著第四季度 FFO 減少。您能否更具體地談談一些正在發生的變化以及影響第三或第四季數字的一次性項目，以及這些噪音是否會持續到 2024 年？

Yes, I'll answer the last part. No, I don't expect anything into 2024. Basically, of the $0.03, a couple of pennies that were related to termination income from some leases that were canceled and then higher interest income there's about $0.02 there, I would call that, that's permanent to the year. And then the other $0.01 in the quarter, I would say it was more of a timing issue, specifically in taxes. We'll see some lower taxes in the third quarter but higher again in the fourth quarter. So if you take that with regard to the role, if you take that $0.03 out you're basically rolling from, let's call it, $1.30 to $1.28 in the fourth quarter is what's implied in our guidance.

是的，我會回答最後一部分。不，我預計2024 年不會發生任何事情。基本上，在0.03 美元中，與一些被取消的租約的終止收入相關的幾美分，然後是更高的利息收入，其中大約有0.02 美元，我稱之為永久性的到了那一年。然後本季的另外 0.01 美元，我想說這更多是一個時間問題，特別是在稅收方面。我們將看到第三季的稅收有所下降，但第四季的稅收再次上升。因此，如果你考慮到這個角色，如果你去掉這 0.03 美元，你基本上會在第四季度從 1.30 美元滾動到 1.28 美元，這就是我們的指導中所暗示的。

And basically, you would roll NOI forward. We're going to probably add $0.02 from just base same-store growth quarter-over-quarter. And then the declines are going to come from mainly ramping of development. We see much more investment in land and CIP starting to build. And you should be aware in your models, our cost of funding development in the short term is essentially 6%. Think of that as SOFR plus our line rate. We're capping interest at our in-place debt is how this works. That's at 3%.

基本上，你會推動 NOI 向前發展。我們可能會在同店基礎季度環比增長中增加 0.02 美元。然後，下降將主要來自發展的加速。我們看到更多的土地投資和 CIP 開始建設。你應該在你的模型中意識到，我們短期內的開發資金成本基本上是 6%。可以視為 SOFR 加上我們的線路速率。我們限制現有債務的利息就是這樣運作的。那是3%。

So in the short term, that's a drag on core FFO seen mainly in interest expense. Obviously, over the long term, the margin and value creation is there. But we will see that drag pick up as developments ramp.

因此，從短期來看，這對核心 FFO 構成拖累，主要反映在利息支出上。顯然，從長遠來看，利潤和價值創造是存在的。但隨著開發的推進，我們將看到這種阻力會加劇。

And the next question comes from the line of Ki Bin Kim with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Ki Bin Kim。

Two quick ones here. First, on the utilization rate that ticked down a little bit this quarter. I was wondering if you can provide any more color on that? And second, if you look at the larger development landscape, and look at competitors that are developing, I would assume that the pressure for them to lease up space and maybe they have to pay back the loans to banks, probably increases as we move forward. I'm not sure how big these developers are or how much capital they have behind them. But is there any risk that as these developers look to secure tenants that could drive rental rates lower going forward?

這裡有兩個快速的。首先，本季利用率略有下降。我想知道你是否可以提供更多顏色？其次，如果你看看更大的發展前景，看看正在發展的競爭對手，我會認為，隨著我們的前進，他們租賃空間的壓力，也許他們必須償還銀行貸款，可能會增加。我不確定這些開發商有多大，也不知道他們背後有多少資本。但是，當這些開發商希望獲得租戶以降低未來的租金率時，是否有任何風險？

Ki Bin, I'll take the utilization question. Thanks for it. As you see on the page and supplemental, there are multiple metrics on the page and we look at all of them in totality and additional ones that are not included in the supplemental. So we have a range of proprietary data, whether it's our IBI survey, tenants in the market, customer decision-making time frames, our sales pipeline. Specific to the utilization data, that lags, that does not lead economic and real estate cycles. We've seen that over time. And so what I think, this is best understood in the context of today's retail sales numbers, which shows a resilient consumer that is outperforming expectations and leading to lower utilization levels.

Ki Bin，我來回答利用率問題。謝謝你。正如您在頁面和補充資料中看到的那樣，頁面上有多個指標，我們會整體查看所有這些指標以及補充資料中未包含的其他指標。因此，我們擁有一系列專有數據，無論是我們的 IBI 調查、市場租戶、客戶決策時間框架或我們的銷售管道。具體到利用率數據，它是滯後的，不會引領經濟和房地產週期。隨著時間的推移，我們已經看到了這一點。因此，我認為，在當今的零售銷售數據的背景下可以最好地理解這一點，這些數據顯示出有彈性的消費者，他們的表現超出了預期並導致利用率水平降低。

Yes. On the second issue of opportunities, there are a lot of merchant developers that were bank financed and active in the market. And they are just about completing their projects now. They have some interest reserve, obviously built in into their lease-up plans, but their lease-up plans are going to get extended. So actually, I think what's going to happen is that they can't really be -- afford to rent the space at the lower rate. I think they're more likely to actually sell their positions to people with stronger balance sheets. And we've already seen and taken advantage of a couple of instances like this.

是的。關於第二個機會，有許多由銀行資助並活躍在市場上的商業開發商。他們現在即將完成他們的專案。他們有一些利息儲備，顯然已納入其租賃計劃，但他們的租賃計劃將會延長。所以實際上，我認為將要發生的事情是他們不可能真正以較低的價格租用空間。我認為他們更有可能將自己的部位出售給資產負債表較強勁的人。我們已經看到並利用了幾個這樣的實例。

So don't be surprised to see us buy some vacant completed shelves at discounts to replacement costs because -- it's because of our view on demand and supply with 65% decline in supply, we think if you get into late '24, early '25, we're going to be in a pretty strong market. So this is where our balance sheet matters. This is where the quality of location and product matters. And we're going to be very selective about the projects that I described, but that's why we've been building our balance sheet and keeping our leverage around 20% all this time. This is when we put it to work.

因此，當我們看到我們以重置成本折扣購買一些空置的成品貨架時，請不要感到驚訝，因為——這是因為我們對需求和供應的看法，供應量下降了65%，我們認為，如果你進入「24 世紀末，早期」 25、我們將處於一個相當強勁的市場。所以這就是我們的資產負債表很重要的地方。這就是位置和產品品質的重要性。我們將對我所描述的項目非常有選擇性，但這就是為什麼我們一直在建立資產負債表並將槓桿率保持在 20% 左右的原因。這就是我們將其付諸實踐的時候。

The next question comes from the line of Vince Tibone with Green Street.

下一個問題來自 Vince Tibone 與 Green Street 的台詞。

I have a follow-up on an earlier comment about 20% of your markets, you're managing for occupancy, now pushing rents. So what are those markets where industrial landlords have less pricing power today?

我對之前關於你們 20% 市場的評論進行了跟進，你們正在管理入住率，現在正在推高租金。那麼，如今工業業主的定價能力較弱的市場是哪些呢？

Sure, Vince. We covered a couple of them, talked about Southern California, point to Houston, Indianapolis and then outside the U.S., the softest market might be Poland and China. And I think I'd offer now that market vacancies are beginning to gap out again, I think we're going to see quality make a bigger difference in terms of portfolio mix.

當然，文斯。我們討論了其中的幾個，談到了南加州，指出了休士頓、印第安納波利斯，然後在美國以外，最疲軟的市場可能是波蘭和中國。我認為現在市場空缺再次開始出現缺口，我認為我們將看到品質在投資組合方面產生更大的差異。

And the next question comes from the line of Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自維克拉姆·馬爾霍特拉 (Vikram Malhotra) 與瑞穗 (Mizuho) 的關係。

Just wanted to get your thoughts to just clarify one thing more broadly. Two trends, I guess, one, just the whole reshoring theme that we're hearing more and more about. And then second, just Amazon, as they've put a lot of capital into the course and across the country. I'm just wondering sort of when you marry those 2 things together, is there sort of greater investment kind of moving towards the Midwest or more manufacturing pockets? Is that sort of an opportunity for PLD going forward?

只是想讓您的想法更廣泛地澄清一件事。我猜有兩種趨勢，一是我們越來越常聽到的整個回流主題。其次，只有亞馬遜，因為他們在該課程和全國範圍內投入了大量資金。我只是想知道，當你將這兩件事結合在一起時，是否會有更大的投資流向中西部或更多的製造業地區？這對 PLD 來說是一個前進的機會嗎？

So generally speaking, I would say, on where manufacturing is taking place, in Asia, there's a lot of manufacturing still in Asia. It's not all in China, and it has been gradually declining in China in the last couple of years anyway. It was first moving to Western China, and then it was spreading to other places in Southeast Asia. But there are going to be strong flows still from those places. It's just not going to be all from China, but the container doesn't care whether it's coming from somewhere else or China. It lands in the same ports. Secondly, demand is -- in our product is mostly driven by consumption and not manufacturing. In manufacturing, the finished product ends up in a container and on a truck or a ship, so the warehouse is a truck order ship. So that manufacturing per se doesn't generate a lot of demand. When those containers land in places where consumption takes place, that's when the demand is generated for deconsolidation.

所以一般來說，我想說，關於製造業發生的地方，在亞洲，仍然有許多製造業在亞洲。不全是在中國，而且這幾年在中國已經逐漸衰退了。它首先傳播到中國西部，然後傳播到東南亞其他地方。但這些地方仍將有強勁的資金流入。只是不會全部來自中國，但貨櫃並不關心它是來自其他地方還是來自中國。它降落在相同的港口。其次，我們產品的需求主要是由消費而非製造業所驅動的。在製造過程中，成品最終會裝在貨櫃和卡車或船上，因此倉庫是卡車訂單船。因此，製造業本身並不會產生大量需求。當這些貨櫃抵達消費地時，就會產生拆箱需求。

Now those markets happen to be in populous parts of the country because that's where the consumption is. And those markets tend to be high barrier to entry markets. So we don't think the dynamic of onshoring, to the extent that it exists, is going to change things around all that much. The biggest beneficiary of onshoring has been actually near shoring and it's been in Northern Mexico. Northern Mexico markets are 100% occupied, and there's insatiable demand for product in those markets. And most of that is for -- are basically distribution buildings that are used for manufacturing purposes.

現在這些市場恰好位於該國人口稠密的地區，因為那是消費的地方。這些市場往往是進入市場的高障礙。因此，我們認為，就其存在而言，本土外包的動態不會對周遭的事物產生太大的改變。在岸外包的最大受益者實際上是近岸外包，而且是在墨西哥北部。墨西哥北部市場已 100% 被佔領，這些市場對產品的需求永無止境。其中大部分基本上是用於製造目的的配電建築。

So that's where we've seen the material demand. If there's more demand coming for manufacturing in the U.S., a, we haven't really seen it. And if we do see it, we'll be the beneficiary of it because we're well positioned in those central markets as well.

這就是我們看到的物質需求。如果美國製造業有更多需求，我們還沒有真正看到。如果我們確實看到了這一點，我們將成為它的受益者，因為我們在這些中心市場也處於有利地位。

And our last question comes from the line of Blaine Heck with Wells Fargo.

我們的最後一個問題來自布萊恩·赫克 (Blaine Heck) 與富國銀行 (Wells Fargo) 的對話。

Hamid, just a bigger picture question for you. Can you talk about how you're thinking about managing exposure to geopolitical risk and instability? And maybe to what extent the latest turmoil in the Middle East could impact your operations, if at all?

哈米德，只是給你一個更大的問題。您能談談您如何考慮管理地緣政治風險和不穩定的風險嗎？也許中東最近的動盪會在多大程度上影響您的業務（如果有的話）？

Yes. I think the effect is going to be indirect because the Middle East is not obviously a source of product or exports or we're not active in any of those markets. So it will be a second order effect on the macro economy. And if the Fed remains very aggressive on rates, if you believe their talk, and all of a sudden, we have some drop-off in demand because people -- that conflict expands and the nightmare scenario would be that a couple of tankers get sunk in the Persian Gulf at the narrow end and oil goes to $200 a barrel. I mean the bets are off.

是的。我認為這種影響將是間接的，因為中東顯然不是產品或出口的來源地，或者我們在這些市場中都不活躍。因此，這將是對宏觀經濟的二階效應。如果聯準會在利率上仍然非常激進，如果你相信他們的言論，突然間，我們的需求會有所下降，因為人們——衝突擴大，噩夢般的情況將是幾艘油輪被擊沉在波斯灣狹窄的一端，石油價格升至每桶200 美元。我的意思是賭注已經落空了。

But boy, if we see that scenario, I can't think of a better business to want to be in. I hate to see that scenario happen. But actually, on a relative basis, it should be good for our business because it will mean that people will -- first of all, inventory becomes really important. And it means that it's yet one more uncertainty like the pandemic, like the earthquake, like all these other disruptions that we've seen that will push the general posture of companies from just in time to just in case. So I hate to say, it would be good because it's an awful situation that's going there. And before this is all over, a lot of innocent people are going to get killed, and I don't want to see this happen. But I don't think its impact on the business on a relative basis is going to be terrible.

但是天哪，如果我們看到這種情況，我想不出還有什麼更好的行業值得進入。我討厭看到這種情況發生。但實際上，相對而言，這應該對我們的業務有利，因為這意味著人們將——首先，庫存變得非常重要。這意味著又一個不確定性，就像大流行、地震以及我們所看到的所有其他破壞一樣，這將推動公司的整體態勢從「及時」轉變為「以防萬一」。所以我不想說，這會很好，因為那裡的情況很糟。在這一切結束之前，很多無辜的人將會被殺害，我不想看到這種情況發生。但我認為相對而言，它對業務的影響不會很嚴重。

I'm honestly more worried about the Fed overdoing it than that conflict escalating. But those things are very hard to predict.

老實說，我更擔心聯準會做得太過分，而不是衝突升級。但這些事情很難預測。

I think that was our last question. So we really appreciate your participation. We really look forward to seeing all of you at our upcoming Investor Day, and I promise it will be really good. So take care.

我想這是我們最後一個問題。所以我們非常感謝您的參與。我們非常期待在即將到來的投資者日見到大家，我保證那會非常精彩。所以要小心。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a great day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。