安森美 (ON) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

安森美半導體與總裁兼執行長 Hassane El-Khoury 和財務長 Thad Trent 舉行了 2024 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。他們討論了非公認會計準則財務指標、前瞻性聲明以及公司對電力和感測技術的關注。

儘管面臨市場挑戰,但他們仍報告稱,公司具有韌性,2024 年非 GAAP 毛利率達到 45.5%。他們對電氣化、人工智慧、資料中心和再生能源領域的成長機會保持樂觀。

該公司在周期性基礎上採取保守態度,專注於核心產品並退出非核心業務以避免波動。他們的銷售額雖然出現季度環比波動,但他們對長期成長和利潤目標仍然充滿信心。

儘管市場下滑,該公司並未重新評估碳化矽成長或利潤的長期目標。他們正在協商長期供應協議,以使庫存水準與需求保持一致,並強調庫存管理的紀律。所提供的指導完全基於安森美半導體的表現,不受同業公司的影響。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and thank you for standing by.

    您好,感謝您的支持。

  • Welcome to the onsemi Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call.

    歡迎參加 onsemi 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) Please be advised today's conference being recorded.

    (操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to hand the conference to your speaker today, Parag Agarwal, Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations.

    現在,我想將會議交給今天的發言人、企業發展和投資者關係副總裁 Parag Agarwal。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Parag Agarwal - Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development

    Parag Agarwal - Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development

  • Thank you, Kevin.

    謝謝你,凱文。

  • Good morning and thank you for joining onsemi's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results Conference Call.

    早安,感謝您參加安森美半導體 2024 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。

  • I'm joined today by Hassane El-Khoury, our President and CEO; and Thad Trent, our CFO.

    今天與我一起出席的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Hassane El-Khoury;以及我們的財務長 Thad Trent。

  • This call is being webcast on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.onsemi.com. A replay of this webcast, along with our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings release, will be available on our website approximately one hour following this conference call, and the recorded website will be available for approximately 30 days following this conference call.

    本次電話會議將在我們網站 www.onsemi.com 的投資者關係欄位進行網路直播。本次網路直播的重播以及我們的第四季度和 2024 年全年收益報告將在本次電話會議結束後約一小時在我們的網站上提供,錄製的網站將在本次電話會議結束後約 30 天內提供。

  • Additional information is posted on the Investor Relations section of our website.

    更多資訊已發佈在我們網站的投資者關係部分。

  • Our earning release and this presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures.

    我們的收益報告和本簡報包括某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

  • Reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and a discussion of certain limitations when using non-GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release, which is posted separately on our website in the Investor Relations section.

    這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表以及使用非 GAAP 財務指標時的某些限制的討論都包含在我們的收益報告中,該報告在我們網站的「投資者關係」部分單獨發布。

  • During the course of this conference call, we'll make projection or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company.

    在本次電話會議期間,我們將對未來事件或本公司未來財務表現做出預測或其他前瞻性陳述。

  • We wish to caution that such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from projections.

    我們希望提醒的是,此類聲明受風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際事件或結果與預測有重大差異。

  • Important factors that can affect our business, including factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements, are described in our most recent Form 10-K, Form 10-Qs and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission in our earnings release for the fourth quarter and full year 2024.

    可能影響我們業務的重要因素,包括可能導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素,在我們最新的 10-K 表、10-Q 表以及我們 2024 年第四季度和全年收益報告中向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中均有所描述。

  • Our estimates or other forward-looking statements might change, and the company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, changed assumptions or other events that may occur except as required well law.

    我們的估計或其他前瞻性陳述可能會發生變化,除非法律另有規定,否則公司不承擔更新前瞻性陳述以反映實際結果、變化的假設或可能發生的其他事件的義務。

  • Now let me turn it over to Hassane.

    現在讓我把話題交給哈桑。

  • Hassane?

    哈桑?

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Parag.

    謝謝你,帕拉格。

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call. 2024 marked the fourth year of our transformation journey, transformation that began by focusing our efforts where we add value in power and sensing technologies.

    大家早安,感謝大家參加我們的電話會議。 2024 年是我們轉型之旅的第四年,這項轉型始於我們將精力集中在電力和感測技術增值領域。

  • We've invested in differentiated products to win with disruptive innovation in the high-growth megatrends of automotive, industrial and AI data centers.

    我們投資了差異化產品,以在汽車、工業和人工智慧資料中心等高成長大趨勢中以顛覆性創新取勝。

  • We streamlined manufacturing through our Fab Right strategy, and we've improved our operational efficiencies in doing so.

    我們透過 Fab Right 策略簡化了製造流程,並在此過程中提高了營運效率。

  • Market conditions aside, and I'll get to those, I am proud of the hard work our worldwide teams continue to put in, and I want to thank everyone for their tenacity, and Midwest continues to be a very difficult environment.

    拋開市場狀況,我會講到這些,我為我們全球團隊持續投入的辛勤工作感到自豪,我要感謝大家的堅持,中西部仍然是一個非常困難的環境。

  • We remain committed to our winning formula, and we have demonstrated the resilience in our business model, delivering non-GAAP gross margin of 45.5% against revenue of $7.1 billion for the full year.

    我們依然致力於我們的成功秘訣,並展示了我們商業模式的韌性,全年非公認會計準則毛利率達到 45.5%,營收達到 71 億美元。

  • As for the market environment, demand declined late in the quarter and continued into January, resulting in fourth quarter revenue of $1.72 billion, non-GAAP gross margin of 45.3% and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.95. Regional revenue declined sequentially, except North America, which remained flat, with Japan seeing the sharpest decline.

    就市場環境而言,季末需求下降並持續到1月份,導致第四季營收為17.2億美元,非GAAP毛利率為45.3%,非GAAP每股收益為0.95美元。除北美地區保持穩定外,其他區域收入均出現環比下降,其中日本的降幅最為顯著。

  • Quarter-on-quarter declines were primarily by our noncore market segments.

    季度環比下降主要源自於我們的非核心市場部分。

  • Amid a backdrop of end-market softness and geopolitical uncertainty, inventory digestion persists as our key end markets.

    在終端市場疲軟和地緣政治不確定性的背景下,庫存消化仍然是我們的主要終端市場。

  • Our stance has not changed.

    我們的立場沒有改變。

  • We are prioritizing value, and we will now play in highly volatile, price-sensitive markets.

    我們優先考慮價值,現在我們將在高度波動、價格敏感的市場中開展業務。

  • We are maintaining the integrity of our value proposition, positioning ourselves for profitable growth in the future.

    我們保持價值主張的完整性,為未來的獲利成長做好準備。

  • Our fourth quarter automotive revenue increased 8% sequentially driven by China, followed by North America.

    我們第四季的汽車營收季增 8%,主要得益於中國市場,其次是北美市場。

  • Results were driven by share gains and new customer ramps.

    業績主要受市場份額成長和新客戶增加的推動。

  • China grew 18% quarter-over-quarter.

    中國市場季增 18%。

  • And while Q4 was up in early Chinese New Year and extended shutdown period has already impacted January EV deliveries from the top China-based automakers.

    儘管第四季受農曆新年提前影響,但停工期延長已影響到中國頂級汽車製造商 1 月的電動車交付量。

  • Demand from all other regions weakened towards the end of the fourth quarter, which continued into Q1.

    所有其他地區的需求在第四季末均有所減弱,並且這種趨勢持續到了第一季。

  • In the US, Tier 1s have been impacted by lower global auto demand than expected in the fourth quarter along with slower EV ramp than anticipated.

    在美國,第四季度全球汽車需求低於預期以及電動車成長速度低於預期,對一級汽車製造商造成了影響。

  • Entering Q1, we expect persisting volatility due to the geopolitical uncertainty across all geographies as our customers assess their manufacturing footprints and the impact of tariffs.

    進入第一季度,隨著我們的客戶評估其製造足跡和關稅的影響,我們預計由於所有地區的地緣政治不確定性,波動將持續存在。

  • We are monitoring the demand signals of EV adoption given the uncertainty around EV tax credits and slowing infrastructure deployment.

    鑑於電動車稅收抵免的不確定性和基礎設施部署放緩,我們正在監測電動車採用的需求訊號。

  • In Europe, EV demand weakened in Q4 with new vehicle registrations dropping 10% month-over-month in December.

    在歐洲,第四季電動車需求減弱,12 月新車註冊量較上季下降 10%。

  • Our industrial revenue decreased 5% sequentially with weakness in the traditional parts of the business.

    由於傳統業務部分錶現疲軟,我們的工業營收季減 5%。

  • The PMI across all major regions remained weak and the slowdown in manufacturing activity that further compounded by ongoing inventory digestion, and we expect the weakness to persist into 2025.

    所有主要地區的PMI依然疲軟,製造業活動放緩因持續的庫存消化而進一步加劇,我們預計這種疲軟態勢將持續到2025年。

  • Smaller but growing parts of the business that we don't break out are AI data center and aerospace and defense, where revenue grew more than 40% and 50%, respectively, in 2024 over 2023.

    我們沒有單獨列出的規模較小但不斷增長的業務部分是人工智慧資料中心以及航空航天和國防,這兩個部分 2024 年的收入分別比 2023 年增長了 40% 和 50% 以上。

  • In silicon carbide, our fourth quarter revenue increased sequentially, resulting in a 22% increase for the second half over the first half of 2024.

    在碳化矽方面,我們第四季的營收季增,導致 2024 年下半年比上半年成長了 22%。

  • For the full year, revenue declined slightly from 2023 as programs did not ramp at the expected levels.

    由於項目未能達到預期水平,全年收入較 2023 年略有下降。

  • We remain focused on executing our strategy.

    我們仍然專注於執行我們的策略。

  • We are -- we have delivered on our 200-millimeter technology development and sampled customers.

    我們已經完成了 200 毫米技術開發並向客戶提供了樣品。

  • We are balancing our internal versus external substrate supply, and we are winning market movers by pushing the boundaries of innovation.

    我們正在平衡內部和外部的基板供應,並透過突破創新的界限來贏得市場推動者。

  • The performance of our silicon carbide enables us to deliver and optimize system performance while lowering the total cost of ownership to our customers without eroding the value of our solutions.

    我們的碳化矽的性能使我們能夠提供和優化系統性能,同時降低客戶的整體擁有成本,而不會損害我們解決方案的價值。

  • In China, we continue to win based on performance, and we expect to gain share in the silicon carbide TAM as the transition to 800-volt batteries continue.

    在中國,我們繼續憑藉性能取勝,隨著向 800 伏特電池的持續過渡,我們預計在碳化矽 TAM 中的份額將會增加。

  • Furthering our strategy of delivering the complete power tree for automotive, industrial and AI data center, we closed the acquisition of Qorvo silicon carbide junction field effect transistor business.

    為了進一步推進我們為汽車、工業和人工智慧資料中心提供完整電源樹的策略,我們完成了對 Qorvo 碳化矽結場效電晶體業務的收購。

  • The SiC JFET portfolio complements our EliteSiC power solutions and is the most competitive technology to get the energy efficiency and power density and power supply units for AI data centers.

    SiC JFET 產品組合是對我們的 EliteSiC 電源解決方案的補充,是獲得 AI 資料中心能源效率和功率密度及電源裝置的最具競爭力的技術。

  • It is a voltage play in AI data centers.

    這是人工智慧資料中心的電壓發揮。

  • And as power levels in these systems are nearly doubling, AC-to-DC conversion for UPS and PSUs is transitioning from silicon solutions to silicon carbide.

    隨著這些系統的功率等級幾乎翻倍,UPS 和 PSU 的交流到直流轉換正在從矽解決方案轉變為碳化矽。

  • We expect that JFET continue to replace the incumbent super-junction technologies and PSUs as we need -- as the need for smaller footprint, better performance and lower cost continues to increase.

    我們預計,隨著對更小尺寸、更好性能和更低成本的需求不斷增加,JFET 將繼續取代現有的超結技術和 PSU。

  • In terms of silicon carbide, revenue growth in AI, design wins for the hyperscalers started to ramp in the fourth quarter, and we expect our SiC JFET and SiC MOSFET revenue to continue to grow in 2025.

    就碳化矽而言,人工智慧的營收成長、超大規模設計的成功在第四季度開始加速,我們預計 SiC JFET 和 SiC MOSFET 的營收將在 2025 年繼續成長。

  • The acquisition of this highly capable team and technology also accelerates our readiness for emerging markets, such as EV battery disconnect and solid-state circuit breakers.

    收購這支高素質團隊和技術也加速了我們面向新興市場的準備,例如電動車電池斷路器和固態斷路器。

  • We expect this portfolio to unlock a $1.3 billion TAM opportunity with a 30% revenue CAGR through 2030.

    我們預計,到 2030 年,該投資組合將釋放 13 億美元的 TAM 機會,收入複合年增長率為 30%。

  • Despite the current environment, we remain committed to our long-term strategic goals, and we continue to invest in disruptive innovation to drive profitable growth and to emerge stronger from this downturn.

    儘管當前環境如此,我們仍然致力於我們的長期戰略目標,並繼續投資顛覆性創新,以推動盈利增長並在經濟低迷後變得更加強大。

  • In November, we introduced the most advanced analog and mixed-signal platform for intelligent power and sensing solutions.

    11月,我們推出了用於智慧電源和感測解決方案的最先進的類比和混合訊號平台。

  • Our new Treo platform, built on leading-edge BCD 65-nanometer technology for high performance and advanced features, supports the industry's widest voltage range of 1 to 90 volts for unmatched integration.

    我們的全新 Treo 平台建立在尖端的 BCD 65 奈米技術之上,具有高性能和先進功能,支援業界最寬的 1 至 90 伏特電壓範圍,可實現無與倫比的整合度。

  • The Treo platform embodies our strategy of prioritizing high-value products and will accelerate our portfolio proliferation to unlock a $36 billion TAM opportunity at up to 70% gross margins.

    Treo 平台體現了我們優先考慮高價值產品的策略,並將加速我們的產品組合擴張,以高達 70% 的毛利率釋放 360 億美元的 TAM 機會。

  • The modular architecture of the platform is enabling us to sample products faster.

    該平台的模組化架構使我們能夠更快地對產品進行取樣。

  • This year, we will start to reap the benefits of the investments we've already made in the technology and capacity at our East Fishkill fab as we ramp up revenue and double the number of products available on the market.

    今年,隨著我們收入的增加和市場上產品數量的翻番,我們將開始收穫我們在東菲什基爾工廠的技術和產能方面的投資回報。

  • Customer reaction has been very positive.

    顧客的反應非常正面。

  • They are taking advantage of the level of integration and accelerated time to market for applications, such as Ethernet for automotive zonal architecture, ultrasonic sensing for ADAS park assist and high-efficiency power management for AI data centers, and they are actively designing Treo-based devices into their next-generation platforms.

    他們正在利用整合度和加速上市時間等應用,例如用於汽車區域架構的乙太網路、用於 ADAS 停車輔助的超音波感應和用於 AI 資料中心的高效電源管理,並且他們正在積極將基於 Treo 的設備設計到他們的下一代平台中。

  • As we look ahead to 2025, visibility is very limited, and customers are taking a wait-and-see approach in a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty.

    展望 2025 年,可見度非常有限,在地緣政治不確定的背景下,客戶採取了觀望態度。

  • We will continue to focus on what we can control.

    我們將繼續關注我們能夠控制的事情。

  • We are taking this opportunity to review our portfolio and further rationalize based on the value we bring.

    我們藉此機會審查我們的投資組合,並根據我們帶來的價值進一步合理化。

  • We will optimize our manufacturing footprint to improve our cost structure, and we will control spending by focusing on efficiency through automation while we continue to invest in R&D to support our long-term growth.

    我們將優化我們的製造足跡以改善我們的成本結構,並透過自動化提高效率來控制支出,同時我們將繼續投資研發以支持我們的長期成長。

  • Our actions will position us to better benefit from a market recovery while supporting our long-term strategy.

    我們的行動將使我們更好地從市場復甦中獲益,同時支持我們的長期策略。

  • Let me now turn it over to Thad to give you more detail on our results and approach going into 2025.

    現在,我請 Thad 向您詳細介紹我們的成果和邁向 2025 年的方法。

  • Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • Thanks, Hassane.

    謝謝,哈桑。

  • As Hassane mentioned, despite the downturn, our 2024 results demonstrate our team's relentless pursuit of operational excellence to drive cost efficiencies in a weak market environment.

    正如哈桑所說,儘管經濟不景氣,但我們 2024 年的業績證明了我們的團隊在疲軟的市場環境下不懈追求卓越運營,以提高成本效率。

  • Their efforts allow us to maintain gross margin at 45.5% against revenue of $7.1 billion and to generate $1.2 billion of free cash flow at 3x increase year-over-year.

    他們的努力使我們在 71 億美元的營收基礎上將毛利率維持在 45.5%,並產生 12 億美元的自由現金流,年增 3 倍。

  • Our proactive approach to prudent cost management and capacity planning has proven to be the right strategy to deliver better results than the company has ever achieved in similar market conditions.

    我們採取積極主動的審慎成本管理和產能規劃方法已被證明是正確的策略,能夠為公司帶來比在類似市場條件下所取得的更好的績效。

  • Looking to 2025 and beyond.

    展望2025年及以後。

  • We believe rightsizing the organization will benefit the company in the long term.

    我們相信,適當調整組織規模將使公司長期受益。

  • These structural changes should position us to expand gross and operating margins and generate strong cash flow in the future.

    這些結構性變化將使我們能夠擴大毛利率和營業利潤率,並在未來產生強勁的現金流。

  • We are moving aggressively and with urgency on the following actions.

    我們正在積極、緊急地採取以下行動。

  • We plan to further rational our manufacturing footprint and reduce excess capacity through our Fab Right strategy.

    我們計劃透過 Fab Right 策略進一步合理化我們的製造佈局並減少過剩產能。

  • These actions will reduce our underutilization absorption as we lower our fixed cost structure.

    隨著我們降低固定成本結構,這些措施將減少我們的利用率不足的吸收。

  • We expect to see the results of these actions to positively impact the income statement in late 2025 and continue driving margin expansion towards our long-term target by proving greater leverage in our business model as the market recovers.

    我們預計這些舉措將在 2025 年底對損益表產生積極影響,並且隨著市場復甦,透過在我們的業務模式中提供更大的槓桿作用,繼續推動利潤率擴大,以實現我們的長期目標。

  • We will make structural changes across the company to reduce our operating expenses.

    我們將在整個公司範圍內進行結構性變革,以降低營運費用。

  • We are exploring a number of options, including rationalization of our product portfolio, head count reductions and potential site closures.

    我們正在探索多種選擇,包括合理化我們的產品組合、裁減員工和關閉潛在的工廠。

  • We expect to see a meaningful impact of these actions as early as the second quarter.

    我們預計最早在第二季就能看到這些措施產生有意義的影響。

  • We will continue R&D investments in differentiated high-margin products to support our long-term growth.

    我們將繼續對差異化高利潤產品進行研發投資,以支持我們的長期成長。

  • And we will focus on free cash flow generation in 2025 as we manage working capital tightly and reduce capital spending to our revised intensity target of mid-single-digit percentage range in 2025.

    我們將在 2025 年專注於自由現金流的創造,因為我們將嚴格管理營運資本,並將資本支出減少到我們修訂後的強度目標,即 2025 年的中等個位數百分比範圍。

  • We generated $422 million of free cash flow in Q4 as 39% sequential -- increased sequentially.

    我們在第四季產生了 4.22 億美元的自由現金流,比上一季成長了 39%。

  • We're committed to our long-term target of returning 50% of free cash flow to shareholders through our share repurchase program.

    我們致力於實現我們的長期目標,透過股票回購計畫向股東返還 50% 的自由現金流。

  • And in 2024, we exceeded it by returning 54% or approximately $650 million.

    到 2024 年,我們的回報率超過了這一水平,達到 54%,約 6.5 億美元。

  • This includes $200 million share repurchases in the fourth quarter, and there is approximately $1.7 billion remaining on our repurchase authorization.

    其中包括第四季的 2 億美元股票回購,我們的回購授權剩餘約 17 億美元。

  • Turning to revenue for the fourth quarter.

    談到第四季的營收。

  • A slowdown in demand across all end markets resulted in revenue of $1.72 billion.

    所有終端市場的需求放緩導致收入減少 17.2 億美元。

  • Automotive and industrial accounted for 84% of revenue in the fourth quarter.

    汽車和工業佔第四季營收的84%。

  • Automotive revenue was $1.03 billion, which increased 8% sequentially driven by programs that ramped in silicon carbide.

    汽車業務營收為 10.3 億美元,季增 8%,主要得益於碳化矽專案的推動。

  • Revenue for industrial was $417 million, down 5% sequentially.

    工業收入為 4.17 億美元,季減 5%。

  • Inventory digestion persists, and we saw further degradation in the traditional parts of industrial, offset by pockets of growth in medical.

    庫存消化仍在繼續,我們看到傳統工業領域的進一步衰退,但醫療領域的成長抵消了這一趨勢。

  • Outside of auto and industrial, our other business declined 24% quarter-over-quarter and more than was seasonally expected.

    除汽車和工業外,我們的其他業務環比下降 24%,且降幅超過季節性預期。

  • We have seen early signs of pricing pressures in pockets of these noncore end markets, which we will not pursue and exit over time if the volatility returns to historical levels.

    我們已經看到這些非核心終端市場部分地區出現價格壓力的早期跡象,如果波動性回到歷史水平,我們將不會繼續追尋這些市場並逐步退出。

  • Looking at the fourth quarter split by the business units.

    依業務部門劃分的第四季情況如下。

  • Revenue for the Power Solutions Group, or PSG, was $809 million, a decrease of 2% quarter-over-quarter and 16% year-over-year.

    電源解決方案集團 (PSG) 的營收為 8.09 億美元,季減 2%,年減 16%。

  • Revenue for the Analog and Mixed-Signal Group, or AMG, was $611 million, a decrease of 7% quarter-over-quarter and a decrease of 18% year-over-year.

    類比和混合訊號集團(AMG)的收入為 6.11 億美元,環比下降 7%,年減 18%。

  • Revenue for the Intelligent Sensing Group, or ISG, was $303 million, a 9% increase quarter-over-quarter.

    智慧感測集團(ISG)的營收為 3.03 億美元,季增 9%。

  • ISG revenue decreased 2% over the same quarter last year.

    ISG營收較去年同期下降2%。

  • Turning to gross margin in the fourth quarter.

    轉向第四季的毛利率。

  • GAAP gross margin was 45.2%, and non-GAAP gross margin was 45.3%, down 20 basis points sequentially and 140 basis points from the quarter a year ago.

    GAAP 毛利率為 45.2%,非 GAAP 毛利率為 45.3%,較上一季下降 20 個基點,較去年同期下降 140 個基點。

  • Manufacturing utilization decreased to 59% in Q4 as we aggressively took action late in the quarter to match our demand visibility.

    由於我們在本季末採取了積極行動以滿足需求可見性,製造利用率在第四季度下降至 59%。

  • Now let me give you some additional numbers for your models.

    現在讓我為您的模型提供一些額外的數字。

  • GAAP operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $371 million as compared to $330 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

    第四季的 GAAP 營運費用為 3.71 億美元,而 2023 年第四季為 3.3 億美元。

  • Non-GAAP operating expenses were $321 million compared to $306 million in the quarter a year ago non-GAAP operating expenses increased sequentially due to the timing of R&D project expenses.

    非公認會計準則營運費用為 3.21 億美元,而去年同期為 3.06 億美元,由於研發項目費用的時間安排,非公認會計準則營運費用較上季增加。

  • GAAP operating margin for the quarter was 23.7%, and non-GAAP operating margin was 26.7%.

    本季 GAAP 營業利益率為 23.7%,非 GAAP 營業利益率為 26.7%。

  • Our GAAP tax rate was 14.2%, and our non-GAAP tax rate was 16%.

    我們的 GAAP 稅率為 14.2%,非 GAAP 稅率為 16%。

  • Diluted GAAP earnings per share for the first -- for the fourth quarter was $0.88 as compared to $1.28 in the quarter a year ago.

    第一季至第四季的攤薄 GAAP 每股收益為 0.88 美元,去年同期為 1.28 美元。

  • Non-GAAP earnings per share was $0.95 as compared to $1.25 in Q4 of 2023.

    非公認會計準則每股收益為 0.95 美元,而 2023 年第四季為 1.25 美元。

  • GAAP diluted share count was 430 million shares, and our non-GAAP diluted share count was 426 million shares.

    GAAP 稀釋股數為 4.3 億股,非 GAAP 稀釋股數為 4.26 億股。

  • Turning to the balance sheet.

    轉向資產負債表。

  • Cash and short-term investments was $3 billion with total liquidity of $4.1 billion, including $1.1 billion undrawn on a revolver.

    現金和短期投資為 30 億美元,總流動資金為 41 億美元,其中包括未動用的 11 億美元循環信貸。

  • Cash from operations was $580 million, and free cash flow increased 39% sequentially to $422 million, representing 25% of revenue.

    營運現金流為 5.8 億美元,自由現金流季增 39%,達到 4.22 億美元,佔營收的 25%。

  • For the year, we generated almost $1.2 billion of free cash flow.

    今年,我們創造了近12億美元的自由現金流。

  • Capital expenditures during Q4 were $157 million, which equates to a capital intensity of 9%.

    第四季的資本支出為 1.57 億美元,相當於 9% 的資本密集度。

  • Inventory was flat quarter-over-quarter on a dollar basis and increased by 3 days to 216 days.

    庫存以美元計算環比持平,增加 3 天至 216 天。

  • This includes 100 days of bridge inventory to support fab transitions in silicon carbide.

    這包括100天的橋樑庫存,以支持碳化矽晶圓廠的轉型。

  • We are nearing the completion of these strategic builds and expect this inventory to peak in the first half of 2025 as we ship and convert the inventory to cash.

    我們即將完成這些策略建設,並預計隨著我們發貨並將庫存轉換為現金,該庫存將在 2025 年上半年達到高峰。

  • Excluding the strategic builds, our base inventory is at 116 days, which continues to be within our target range of 100 to 120 days.

    除去策略建設,我們的基本庫存為 116 天,這仍然在我們 100 至 120 天的目標範圍內。

  • Distribution inventory declined $55 million with weeks of inventory remaining relatively flat at 9.6 versus 9.7 weeks in Q3.

    分銷庫存減少 5,500 萬美元,庫存週數保持相對平穩,為 9.6 週,而第三季為 9.7 週。

  • Our plan to change the mix in the channel to support the mass market has resulted in an 18% increase in customer count year-over-year.

    我們計劃改變通路組合以支援大眾市場,這使得客戶數量比去年同期成長了 18%。

  • We expect distribution weeks of inventory to be plus or minus 10 weeks going forward.

    我們預計未來庫存分銷週數將在正負 10 週之間。

  • Looking forward, let me provide you the key elements of our non-GAAP guidance for the first quarter.

    展望未來,讓我為您提供我們第一季非公認會計準則指引的關鍵要素。

  • As a reminder, today's press release contains a table detailing our GAAP and non-GAAP guidance.

    提醒一下,今天的新聞稿中包含一個表格,詳細介紹了我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指南。

  • Given our visibility, we anticipate Q1 revenue will be in the range of $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion.

    根據我們的預測,我們預計第一季的營收將在 13.5 億美元至 14.5 億美元之間。

  • We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be between 39% and 41% with utilization declining to mid-50% in Q1.

    我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率將在 39% 至 41% 之間,利用率將在第一季下降至 50% 左右。

  • This includes share-based compensation of $7 million.

    其中包括 700 萬美元的股權激勵費用。

  • At the midpoint of our guidance, approximately half of the quarter-on-quarter change in gross margin is attributable to the drop in revenue as the under-absorption is calculated on a lower revenue number.

    在我們的指導中點,毛利率環比變化的約一半歸因於收入下降,因為吸收不足是根據較低的收入數字計算的。

  • An additional 100 basis points is due to unfavorable product mix, and the remainder is driven by lower utilization, which now drives a 20 to 25 basis point change in gross margin for every 100 basis points of utilization at these lower utilization levels.

    另外 100 個基點是由於不利的產品組合造成的,其餘部分則是由於利用率較低造成的,現在在這些較低的利用率水準下,利用率每上升 100 個基點,就會造成毛利率發生 20 到 25 個基點的變化。

  • This change is due to the higher fixed cost as a portion of total factory cost.

    這種變化是由於固定成本佔工廠總成本的比例較高所造成的。

  • As the market recovers and utilization improves, we will see significant leverage in our gross margin as these costs dissipate and we recognize the benefit of our Fab Right cost reductions.

    隨著市場復甦和利用率提高,隨著這些成本的消散以及我們認識到 Fab Right 成本降低的好處,我們將看到毛利率的顯著提升。

  • Moving on to non-GAAP operating expenses.

    繼續討論非 GAAP 營業費用。

  • We expect OpEx to be in the range of $313 million to $328 million, including share-based compensation of

    我們預計營運支出將在 3.13 億美元至 3.28 億美元之間,其中包括股權激勵

  • [$31 million].

    [3100萬美元]。

  • We anticipate our non-GAAP other income to be a net benefit of $14 million with our interest income exceeding interest expense.

    我們預計非公認會計準則下的其他收入將為 1,400 萬美元的淨收益,其中利息收入將超過利息支出。

  • We expect our non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 16%, and our non-GAAP diluted share count is expected to be approximately 425 million shares.

    我們預計我們的非公認會計準則稅率約為 16%,我們的非公認會計準則稀釋股數預計約為 4.25 億股。

  • This results in non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $0.45 to $0.55. We expect capital expenditures in the range of $110 million to $150 million.

    這導致非 GAAP 每股收益在 0.45 美元至 0.55 美元之間。我們預計資本支出在 1.1 億美元至 1.5 億美元之間。

  • As you can see, we are not standing still.

    正如你所見,我們並沒有停滯不前。

  • The structural changes we plan on making will position us to react quickly and favorably to changing market conditions.

    我們計劃進行的結構性變革將使我們能夠對不斷變化的市場條件做出快速且有利的反應。

  • We believe electrification, AI data center and renewable energy are still the major growth drivers for our industry over the next decade, and we remain confident our technology and innovations in these markets will allow us to capitalize on those trends.

    我們相信電氣化、人工智慧資料中心和再生能源仍然是未來十年我們行業的主要成長動力,我們仍然相信我們在這些市場的技術和創新將使我們能夠利用這些趨勢。

  • With that, I'll turn the call back over to Kevin to open it up for questions.

    說完這些,我會把電話轉回給凱文,讓他回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

    (操作員指令)德意志銀行羅斯·西摩。

  • Ross Seymore - Analyst

    Ross Seymore - Analyst

  • First question, I wanted to get into the structural versus cyclical side.

    第一個問題,我想談談結構性與週期性面向。

  • You guys have been conservative for quite some time on a cyclical basis, probably one of the first ones.

    你們在周期性的基礎上已經保守了相當長一段時間,可能是第一批。

  • But yes, the magnitude of this drop is very, very significant.

    但確實,下降的幅度非常非常大。

  • Hassane, I know you talked about late in the quarter, things kind of fell apart from a demand perspective.

    哈桑,我知道您談到了本季末的情況,從需求角度來看,情況有點惡化。

  • But how much of this do you believe to be ON specific versus the end market?

    但是,您認為其中有多少是 ON 特有的,還是終端市場特有的?

  • And just from a revenue basis, are you at all concerned that the structural end market or product portfolio needs larger adjustment and isn't going to be as resilient as you hoped?

    僅從收入角度來看,您是否擔心結構性終端市場或產品組合需要更大範圍的調整,而不會像您所希望的那樣具有彈性?

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No.

    不。

  • Look, I think the big change in the precipitous -- the one thing I can say that is ON-specific is the noncore business that has seen the largest decline.

    看,我認為急劇的變化——我能說的一件事是,非核心業務的下滑幅度最大。

  • And we've been very consistent not to play in that volatility.

    我們始終堅持不參與這種波動。

  • If you recall, when we started the transformation, we had a big portion, call it, $800 million to $900 million, of noncore business where we said we would exit.

    如果你還記得的話,當我們開始轉型時,我們有很大一部分非核心業務,大約 8 億到 9 億美元,我們說過要退出。

  • We only exited about half of that.

    我們只退出了其中的一半。

  • And we're seeing -- with that extended downturn, we're seeing more and more volatility in that pricing.

    我們看到,隨著經濟低迷的持續,價格的波動越來越大。

  • But we remain consistent with our strategy that we're not going to play in this highly volatile and we're going to maintain the value of our core products, which is where we're investing.

    但我們始終堅持我們的策略,那就是我們不會參與這種高度不穩定的市場,我們將保持我們核心產品的價值,這也是我們投資的地方。

  • Think Treo, think silicon carbide, think in the medical and so on.

    想想 Treo、想想碳化矽、想想醫療領域等等。

  • All of these are where the growth is going to come from.

    所有這些都是成長的源頭。

  • And in the term, as we see the volatility, we're not going to participate, yet we will choose to rationalize our portfolio further and match our capacity accordingly.

    從長遠來看,當我們看到波動時,我們不會參與,但我們會選擇進一步合理化我們的投資組合,並相應地匹配我們的能力。

  • Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • And Ross, I would add, just to size the size of that business that Hassane is talking about, the noncore, it's roughly $350 million to $400 million that is more volatile that as this downturn extends that is -- we will exit over time, just to put a sizing to it.

    羅斯,我想補充一點,只是為了估算一下哈桑所談論的業務的規模,非核心業務的規模大約為 3.5 億至 4 億美元,這個數字更加不穩定,隨著經濟衰退的延長,我們將隨著時間的推移而退出,只是為了估算一下規模。

  • Ross Seymore - Analyst

    Ross Seymore - Analyst

  • And then, I guess, along the lines of the sizing side of things, you talked about some of the structural actions you are going to take on the cost front as soon as 2Q and then some of the benefits potentially on the COGS side coming into the back half.

    然後,我想,從規模方面來看,您談到了將在第二季度在成本方面採取的一些結構性措施,以及下半年可能在 COGS 方面採取的一些好處。

  • Any sort of color as far as putting magnitude around those?

    就這些內容而言,有什麼顏色可以表示量度嗎?

  • Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • No, not at this point.

    不,目前還不行。

  • We're still working on the plans.

    我們仍在執行計劃。

  • We'll give updates throughout the quarter as we solidify those plans.

    隨著這些計劃的鞏固,我們將在整個季度提供更新。

  • So expect some updates as we go.

    因此,請期待我們進行的一些更新。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

    Vivek Arya 的美國銀行證券。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • Just first, kind of few clarifications.

    首先,我需要澄清幾點。

  • So Q1, what are you expecting for the sequential segment trends in automotive, industrial and other segment?

    那麼第一季度,您對汽車、工業和其他領域的連續細分趨勢有何預期?

  • And I think you mentioned something unfavorable in the mix.

    我認為您提到了其中的一些不利因素。

  • And then any early look at Q2 seasonality?

    那麼,您對第二季的季節性有什麼初步了解嗎?

  • Because Hassane, what everyone is obviously trying to guess is what is the path of recovery for ON from here.

    因為哈桑,顯然每個人都在試圖猜測安省從現在開始的復甦之路是什麼。

  • Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So by end market, Vivek, automotive is going to be down the most.

    因此,就終端市場而言,Vivek,汽車市場的跌幅將會最大。

  • We think that's going to be probably 25% or more down sequentially.

    我們認為這一數字可能會比上一季下降 25% 或更多。

  • When you look at industrial and other, we think it's going to be down mid- to high single digit sequentially.

    當你看工業和其他方面時,我們認為它將環比下降中高個位數。

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And look, as you -- on the visibility side, we're sticking with visibility of about a quarter.

    你看,在可見性方面,我們堅持約四分之一的可見性。

  • Of course, we have some looks into Q2, but it's too early to talk about seasonality in Q2 given really the volatility in back of -- between geopolitical and tariffs as early as over the weekend.

    當然,我們對第二季度進行了一些觀察,但考慮到週末地緣政治和關稅之間的波動,現在談論第二季度的季節性還為時過早。

  • So we're not going to be talking Q2 yet.

    所以我們暫時還不會談第二季。

  • As we get more and more visibility, we'll update them.

    隨著我們獲得越來越多的關注,我們將更新它們。

  • But as far as recovery, look, I think I know what others have said.

    但就恢復而言,看,我想我知道其他人是怎麼說的。

  • It's a lot of the -- everybody is talking about, oh, the second half would be better than the first half and so on.

    很多時候——每個人都在談論,哦,下半場會比上半場更好等等。

  • It's the same string that everybody is pulling that they did in 2024.

    每個人都在拉響和 2024 年一樣的警報。

  • I don't subscribe to that.

    我不同意這種觀點。

  • I subscribe to data I see, and we're going to manage the company to the data we see because getting it at this point will just be upside for us as the market recovers.

    我訂閱了我看到的數據,我們將根據我們看到的數據來管理公司,因為隨著市場復甦,此時獲得這些數據對我們來說只會是有利的。

  • And I'd rather have that and be right in that aspect versus hope for a recovery, run the company and if the recovery doesn't come, now you have a headwind.

    我寧願這樣做,並且在這方面做得正確,而不是希望經濟復甦,經營公司,如果沒有復甦,那麼你就會遇到逆風。

  • I'd rather all of that work that we do now, like Thad said, not standing still to be a tailwind for us, whether there's a recovery or not.

    我希望我們現在所做的所有工作,就像塔德所說的那樣,不要停滯不前,無論是否有復甦,都能成為我們的順風。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • And for my follow-up, Hassane, so if I look at Q1 automotive, I think you mentioned down 25%, so let's say, $70-ish million or so.

    接下來是 Hassane,如果我看第一季的汽車業務,我記得您提到下降 25%,所以我們可以說下降了 7,000 萬美元左右。

  • It has sort of reset back to mid-'22 levels.

    它已經重置回 22 年中期的水平。

  • But it is still well above the levels we saw forward, right, which were in the $400 million, $500 million quarterly range.

    但它仍然遠高於我們預期的水平,即每季 4 億美元到 5 億美元的水平。

  • What is the right baseline that we should have when we start to think about automotive business for long periods of time?

    當我們開始長期思考汽車業務時,我們應該擁有的正確基準是什麼?

  • Because we have seen industrial businesses get reset back to much lower levels, but automotive is still above the 2019 level.

    因為我們已經看到工業業務回落至更低的水平,但汽車業務仍高於 2019 年的水平。

  • It's closer to '22 level.

    它更接近'22 級別。

  • So how do you think about what is that right baseline?

    那麼您如何看待正確的底線呢?

  • When was automotive at the right baseline level for us to project it?

    對我們來說,汽車產業什麼時候達到正確的基準水準?

  • What have been the effects of LTSAs, pricing, content, EV, silicon carbide, et cetera, that'll help us project what your automotive business can be over the next several years as you start to normalize?

    LTSA、定價、內容、EV、碳化矽等產生了哪些影響?

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Look, I think from -- looking for the -- it's hard to talk about a baseline given all the changes that we've done to our portfolio.

    看,我認為從——尋找——考慮到我們對投資組合所做的所有改變,很難談論基準。

  • And you mentioned some of them, the growth in silicon carbide, which is not just the growth in silicon carbide, but a mix shift even on the ASP side.

    您提到了其中的一些,碳化矽的增長,這不僅僅是碳化矽的增長,而且是 ASP 方面的混合轉變。

  • Silicon carbide module is a much higher dollar content than some, for example, the discretes we used to ship more of prior.

    碳化矽模組的美元含量比其他一些模組高得多,例如我們以前運送較多的分立裝置。

  • So from a unit, you can expect unit decline, but revenue went up.

    因此從單位來看,你可以預期單位數量會下降,但收入會上升。

  • So it's hard to get a baseline given how drastic our portfolio has shifted over the last even two to three years.

    因此,考慮到我們的投資組合在過去兩三年內發生的劇烈變化,很難獲得基準。

  • But moving forward, our long-term view, which remains consistent, outside of the market environment today, our long-term view remains consistent, which is SAAR, call it, high to low teens -- or sorry, from high single digit to low teens.

    但展望未來,我們的長期觀點是一致的,在當今的市場環境之外,我們的長期觀點是一致的,即 SAAR,稱之為高到低十幾歲 - 或者抱歉,從高個位數到低十幾歲。

  • That's the range over SAAR, so -- which is what we're seeing.

    這就是 SAAR 的範圍,所以 — — 這就是我們所看到的。

  • That, I would say, is the baseline that we are building to and the baseline we are investing to, which is both a mix shift into higher-value products, especially as, for example, start introducing Treo, which comes with a margin expansion as well towards our long-term target.

    我想說,這就是我們正在建立的基準,也是我們投資的基準,這不僅是向高價值產品的混合轉變,特別是例如開始推出 Treo,這也帶來了利潤率的擴大,也使我們更接近長期目標。

  • So moving forward, that's how about it, but it's hard to go backwards and talk about a baseline just because of the shift that we've done over the last few years.

    所以繼續向前看,情況就是這樣,但由於過去幾年我們所做的轉變,很難回頭談論基線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

  • Toshiya Hari - Analyst

    Toshiya Hari - Analyst

  • Hassane, I wanted to go back to the automotive outlook for Q1 down, call it, 25% sequentially.

    哈桑,我想回到汽車產業第一季的前景,預計季減 25%。

  • This outlook is much worse than many of your peers.

    這種前景比你們許多同齡人的情況要糟糕得多。

  • I'm just curious, what's driving the delta there?

    我只是很好奇,是什麼推動了那裡的三角洲?

  • Is it pricing?

    是定價嗎?

  • Is there a noncore component within automotive?

    汽車內部是否存在非核心零件?

  • Any additional context or color there would be really helpful.

    任何額外的背景或顏色都會非常有幫助。

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So of course, there's a noncore bit component to it, as I mentioned.

    當然,正如我所提到的那樣,它有一個非核心位元組件。

  • So that's built into the first quarter.

    這使得它已包含在第一季內。

  • But some of it is the silicon carbide.

    但其中一些是碳化矽。

  • We've always said silicon carbide quarter-on-quarter is lumpy.

    我們一直說碳化矽的季度環比成長不穩定。

  • We've had a great second half.

    我們的下半場表現非常出色。

  • However, in -- it is all driven by China.

    然而,這一切都是由中國推動的。

  • China today is looking at a softer Q1.

    如今,中國第一季的經濟表現較為疲軟。

  • I think that's temporary as it digests inventory that they've built.

    我認為這只是暫時的,因為它會消化他們已經建立的庫存。

  • It's not our inventory, but I'm talking about the vehicle inventory.

    這不是我們的庫存,但我說的是車輛庫存。

  • We're monitoring that.

    我們正在監視此事。

  • You have an early Chinese New Year.

    祝你們過一個早點的農曆新年。

  • Some of the Chinese customers have done an extended shutdown in order to absorb that inventory.

    為了消化庫存,一些中國客戶已延長停產時間。

  • So net-net, I don't worry about that quarter-on-quarter lumpiness as I look at it over a multi-quarter period.

    因此,從總體來看,我並不擔心季度環比的波動,因為從多個季度的角度來看。

  • Still gaining share, both in China and some European names.

    在中國和一些歐洲品牌的市場份額仍在不斷擴大。

  • I've said it before, they're not ramping at the rate that we expected, but they're still ramping, which is what drove the second half of 2024.

    我之前說過,他們的成長速度沒有我們預期的那麼快,但他們仍在成長,這也是推動 2024 年下半年發展的因素。

  • So quarter-on-quarter, the number is what the visibility shows, but the structural changes in the business and the outlook remain unchanged.

    因此,與季度相比,數字只是可見性的表現,但業務和前景的結構性變化保持不變。

  • Toshiya Hari - Analyst

    Toshiya Hari - Analyst

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • And maybe one for Thad.

    也許還給泰德一個。

  • You talked about rationalizing your portfolio.

    您談到了合理化您的投資組合。

  • You talked about reviewing your manufacturing footprint.

    您談到了審查您的製造足跡。

  • As you draw up your forward strategy and your plans, is the aspiration to kind of hold on to the 2027 model that you guys shared with us a couple of years ago, i.e., gross margins of 53%, operating margins of 40%?

    當你們制定未來策略和計劃時,你們的願望是否是堅持你們幾年前與我們分享的 2027 年模式,即毛利率 53%、營業利潤率 40%?

  • Or I mean I realize the backdrop is very, very different at this point.

    或者我的意思是我意識到此時的背景非常非常不同。

  • So should we think about -- should we assume you guys are looking at sort of a different or updated long-term model at this point?

    那麼,我們是否應該考慮——我們是否應該假設你們現在正在尋找一種不同或更新的長期模型?

  • Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • No.

    不。

  • Look, we still remain committed to that 53% target.

    你看,我們仍然致力於實現 53% 的目標。

  • If you look at the gross margin, in the short term, it's all impacted by utilization, right?

    如果你看一下毛利率,短期內它都會受到利用率的影響,對嗎?

  • I talked about the moving pieces, but utilization is the largest headwind that we have right now.

    我談到了移動部件,但利用率是我們目前面臨的最大阻力。

  • Assuming the market recovers and we continue to execute on our Fab Right, we will rightsize our manufacturing to fit the size of the company here.

    假設市場復甦並且我們繼續執行我們的Fab Right,我們將調整我們的製造規模以適應公司的規模。

  • And we don't need that top line revenue that was in that original target, but we do remain committed to that 53% gross margin target.

    我們不需要最初目標中的營業收入,但我們仍致力於實現 53% 的毛利率目標。

  • If you look at the gross margin actions that we're taking now, it's primarily a lot of noncash actions, if you think about it.

    如果你看看我們現在採取的毛利率行動,你會發現,它主要是大量非現金行動。

  • And it will generate strong free cash flow as we think about this year and in '26.

    展望今年和26年,它將產生強勁的自由現金流。

  • And then, obviously, as we go into '27 and hit that target, we believe we'll hit that.

    然後,顯然,當我們進入27年並實現這一目標時,我們相信我們會實現這一目標。

  • But even if you look at '25 from a free cash flow standpoint, we believe we're going to hit that target model of free cash flow of 25% to 30% in 2025 for the year.

    但即使從自由現金流的角度來看,我們也相信我們將在 2025 年達到 25% 至 30% 的自由現金流目標模式。

  • We achieved it in Q4 of '24 with a 25% free cash flow margin, and we believe we'll continue to generate strong free cash flow going forward.

    我們在 24 年第四季實現了 25% 的自由現金流利潤率,我們相信未來我們將繼續產生強勁的自由現金流。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Danely, Citi.

    花旗銀行的克里斯丹尼利 (Chris Danely)。

  • Chris Danely - Analyst

    Chris Danely - Analyst

  • I guess for the rest of the year, how would you expect the auto versus the industrial growth to trend?

    我想,對於今年剩餘時間,您預計汽車和工業成長趨勢將如何?

  • Do you expect auto to recover after Q1, or no visibility at all?

    您預計汽車產業在第一季後會復甦嗎,還是根本看不到復甦的跡象?

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's too early to talk about the rest of the year, to be honest with you.

    老實說,現在談論今年剩餘時間的情況還為時過早。

  • We know what designs we have.

    我們知道我們有什麼設計。

  • We know what designs we're ramping at this point or have been gained.

    我們知道目前我們正在推進或已經獲得了哪些設計。

  • The designs have been qualified.

    設計已獲認可。

  • It's purely an end-market demand right now.

    目前這純粹是終端市場的需求。

  • Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And we do believe that we're still undershipping natural demand.

    我們確實相信我們的出貨量仍未滿足自然需求。

  • So at some point, you got to come back to that level.

    所以在某個時候,你必須回到那個水平。

  • It's just a matter of when.

    這只是時間問題。

  • Chris Danely - Analyst

    Chris Danely - Analyst

  • That's fair.

    這很公平。

  • And then a question on silicon carbide.

    然後是關於碳化矽的一個問題。

  • With this decline, are you guys reassessing your long-term targets on silicon carbide as far as growth or margin scale?

    隨著這種下降,你們是否會重新評估碳化矽的成長或利潤規模方面的長期目標?

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, not on the margin because you can think about it, it's a demand.

    不,不是在邊際上,因為你可以想想,這是一種需求。

  • So as far as growth is concerned, outside of the short-term lumpiness and the volatility and really the EV, our long-term growth, we aim to be the leaders in the market from a market share perspective, and we aim to run the highest profitability silicon carbide business we have given the innovations that we believe we bring to the customer.

    因此就成長而言,除了短期的不穩定和波動以及真正的企業價值(EV)以及我們的長期成長之外,我們的目標是從市場份額的角度成為市場領導者,我們的目標是經營盈利能力最高的碳化矽業務,我們相信我們會將創新帶給客戶。

  • So that remains unchanged.

    因此這保持不變。

  • There will be some strategic reviews of the capacity.

    我們將對產能進行一些策略評估。

  • But overall, we're focused on that market, and that will remain a tailwind for us both on growth and margin.

    但總體而言,我們專注於該市場,這將繼續成為我們實現成長和利潤的順風。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Blayne Curtis, Jefferies.

    布萊恩·柯蒂斯(Blayne Curtis),傑富瑞(Jefferies)。

  • Blayne Curtis - Analyst

    Blayne Curtis - Analyst

  • I had two.

    我有兩個。

  • I'm just kind of curious, I wanted to go back to the nonstrategic business.

    我只是有點好奇,我想回到非策略性業務。

  • You said $350 million or $400 million.

    你說的是3.5億美元或4億美元。

  • Just how much of that -- in terms of the guidance for March, are you planning on some of that delta coming out in March?

    那麼,就 3 月的預測而言,您計劃在 3 月公佈部分增量嗎?

  • Or is that something that would be on top of what you're seeing in March and would come out further in the year if you make those decisions?

    或者,這是在您 3 月看到的情況的基礎上,在一年內進一步顯現出來(如果您做出了這些決定)?

  • Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • No.

    不。

  • Look, we think that if that business -- if we do lose up business because of pricing, it will happen over a multi-quarter period.

    看,我們認為,如果我們確實因為定價而失去業務,那麼它將在多個季度內發生。

  • So it's not all baked into Q1.

    因此,這並不是全部都包含在 Q1 中。

  • It's further out into the year.

    今年已經過去很久了。

  • And like I said, that will really be market-dependent adopt.

    正如我所說的,這確實將依賴市場。

  • We'll keep that business.

    我們將會保留這項業務。

  • It's good margin, like it has been historically.

    這是一個很好的利潤,就像歷史上一樣。

  • But if the pricing continues to drop, we'll just let it wither away over time.

    但如果價格繼續下降,我們就會讓它隨著時間的推移而逐漸消失。

  • Blayne Curtis - Analyst

    Blayne Curtis - Analyst

  • Got you.

    明白了。

  • And then I want to ask the auto demand by geography.

    然後我想問一下按地區劃分的汽車需求。

  • You had -- you actually were up in December.

    你 — — 你其實在 12 月就已經漲了。

  • A lot of people saw China strength.

    很多人看到了中國的力量。

  • I think you called that out.

    我想你已經說出了這一點。

  • I'm just kind of curious if you can just talk about March demand by geography in auto.

    我只是有點好奇,您是否可以談談三月按地區劃分的汽車需求。

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think, in general, we expect it to be down.

    我認為,總體而言,我們預計它會下降。

  • I don't think we can call out -- relatively speaking, there are some regions that are better than others.

    我認為我們不能說——相對而言,有些地區比其他地區要好。

  • But the growth that we've had was China, as I spoke about in my prepared remarks -- and getting into Q1, I highlighted the early Chinese New Year and the extended shutdown.

    但正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,我們的成長來自於中國——進入第一季度,我強調了提前結束的農曆新年和延長的停工期。

  • So that's, again, a demand environment.

    所以,這又是一個需求環境。

  • We are in these sockets.

    我們在這些插座裡。

  • We ramped in fourth quarter as customers sell through their inventory, meaning the inventory of cars, not our inventory with them.

    由於客戶用他們的庫存(也就是汽車庫存,而不是我們在他們那裡的庫存)銷售,我們在第四季度實現了銷售成長。

  • But the cars, as that inventory sell-through, that will replenish and we'll see the orders recover.

    但隨著庫存銷售完畢,汽車將得到補充,我們將看到訂單恢復。

  • So that's the uncertainty because it's purely a consumer confidence end game.

    所以這就是不確定性,因為這純粹是消費者信心的最終結果。

  • As we get better visibility after the Chinese New Year, we will be able to get more clarity on how the rest of the year will be.

    隨著農曆新年過後情況更加明朗,我們將能夠更清楚地了解今年剩餘時間的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Josh Buchalter, TD Cowen.

    喬許·布查爾特(Josh Buchalter),TD Cowen。

  • Josh Buchalter - Analyst

    Josh Buchalter - Analyst

  • I also wanted to ask about the first quarter gross margin.

    我還想問一下第一季的毛利率。

  • So you walked through the 100 basis points of unfavorable mix and then the new rule of thumb, adding probably 100 to 150 basis points headwind as well.

    因此,您經歷了 100 個基點的不利組合,然後是新的經驗法則,可能還增加了 100 到 150 個基點的逆風。

  • Can you sort of, I guess, provide more details on the remaining part of the sequential decline?

    我想,您能否提供更多有關連續下降剩餘部分的細節?

  • And also, any more details you can give on what specifically is driving the unfavorable mix, given it sounds like you're walking away from business as is?

    另外,考慮到這聽起來像是您要放棄這個業務了,您能否提供更多細節來說明具體是什麼導致了這種不利的組合?

  • Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So starting with the gross margin, if you do the walk from Q4 to the midpoint of our guidance in Q1, and I said this in our prepared statement here, the half of it -- roughly half of that decline is a calculation change in the under-absorption.

    因此,從毛利率開始,如果您從第四季度走到第一季度指導的中點,正如我在準備好的聲明中所說的那樣,其中的一半 - 大約一半的下降是吸收不足的計算變化。

  • So if you think about the under-absorption on a lower revenue number, that's driving half of that margin delta right there.

    因此,如果您考慮較低收入數字的吸收不足,那麼這將導致利潤增量減少一半。

  • There's 100 basis points from the unfavorable product mix.

    不利的產品組合帶來了 100 個基點。

  • And then there's -- you do the math, it's roughly about 150 basis points from the underutilization as we drop utilization down further.

    然後 — — 你算一下,隨著我們進一步降低利用率,利用率不足大約會下降 150 個基點。

  • The mix is just purely a price/mix.

    這種組合只是一種價格/組合。

  • If you think about the long tail of customers that we talk about and some of that -- some of these businesses, that's what is remaining soft.

    如果你考慮我們所談論的長尾客戶以及其中一些業務——其中一些業務,這就是仍然處於疲軟狀態的部分。

  • Some of this industrial is soft.

    其中一些是軟性的。

  • So it's purely just a product mix unfavorability kind of in the short term here.

    因此,從短期來看,這純粹是產品組合不利的情況。

  • We believe that over the long term, that will come back as well.

    我們相信,從長遠來看,這種情況也會恢復。

  • So if you think about -- whenever there's a recovery and revenue comes back, you will get that -- half of that delta just with the revenue increase because it's a pure calculation.

    因此,如果你想想——每當經濟復甦並且收入回升時,你都會得到——增量的一半只是收入的增加,因為這是一個純粹的計算。

  • Does that make sense, Josh?

    這樣有道理嗎,喬希?

  • Josh Buchalter - Analyst

    Josh Buchalter - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And then for my follow-up, you mentioned sort of inventory levels coming down at your auto Tier 1 customers.

    然後,在我的後續問題中,您提到了汽車一級客戶的庫存水準下降。

  • Any metrics you can give us on how much inventory you expect to be able to strip out downstream at your Tier 1s and where levels, I guess, are now and where you expect them to be exiting the first quarter?

    您能否提供任何指標,說明您預計能夠在一級市場剝離多少下游庫存,目前的庫存水平如何,以及您預計它們在第一季的退出水平如何?

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Look, it's not really an industry response because every Tier 1, depending on their financial and their -- the strength of their balance sheet, are taking a different approach to inventory.

    看起來,這並不是真正的行業反應,因為每一個一級市場,根據他們的財務狀況和資產負債表的實力,都採取不同的庫存方法。

  • It's hard to get 100% visibility there.

    那裡很難達到 100% 的可見度。

  • I mean we work with customers as we see orders.

    我的意思是,我們在看到訂單後就與客戶合作。

  • Our priority is depleting.

    我們的首要任務是消耗。

  • So we're not pushing inventory out.

    因此我們不會壓低庫存。

  • That's why Thad mentioned, we believe we are, while under-shipping demand, at some point that will recover.

    這就是 Thad 提到的原因,我們相信,雖然運輸需求不足,但在某個時候會恢復。

  • However, the inventory levels at our customers really directly correlated to what the demand is.

    然而,我們客戶的庫存水準實際上與需求直接相關。

  • And as demand deteriorated, inventory looks elevated, and they will take an action.

    隨著需求惡化,庫存增加,他們就會採取行動。

  • So it's kind of a moving target.

    所以這是一個移動的目標。

  • But it is not industry specific.

    但它並不是特定於行業的。

  • We have some Tier 1s we work with that have already achieved it.

    我們合作的一些一級企業已經實現了這一目標。

  • So we're already shipping to demand.

    所以我們已開始依需求出貨。

  • But in general, there's still a lot of inventory digestion across the industry.

    但整體來看,產業庫存消化仍然較多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho.

    瑞穗的 Vijay Rakesh。

  • Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

    Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

  • Just wondering, when you look at the fab utilization, how that should play out over the next couple of quarters, I guess, after 1Q?

    只是想知道,當您查看晶圓廠利用率時,它在第一季之後的接下來幾季中應該如何表現?

  • Like do you see that flat and maybe second half picking up?

    您認為今年的情況會持平,下半年可能會回升嗎?

  • Or seeing there's some trend?

    或看到某種趨勢?

  • Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • Well, look, utilization is all going to be demand-driven, right?

    嗯,你看,利用率都是由需求驅動的,對嗎?

  • We said that in Q1, our utilization will drop to the mid-50% range from 59% here in Q4.

    我們說過,在第一季度,我們的利用率將從第四季的 59% 下降到 50% 左右。

  • So we're already taken that action.

    所以我們已經採取了行動。

  • For what we can see right now, we'll kind of be running in that range, plus or minus, until we see demand recovery.

    就我們目前所見,我們將一直處於這個範圍內,或多或少,直到需求復甦。

  • Once we see the demand recovering, utilization will go up, and then there's the natural latency until you see gross margin improvement.

    一旦我們看到需求恢復,利用率就會上升,然後就會有自然的延遲,直到你看到毛利率的增加。

  • That will happen when we see the demand -- the market recover.

    當我們看到需求——市場復甦時,這種情況就會發生。

  • Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

    Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • And in terms of the silicon carbide outlook, I think you said might be up year-on-year.

    就碳化矽的前景而言,我認為您說的可能會比去年同期成長。

  • I was wondering if any color around that and on the backlog, how that's trending there as well?

    我想知道這方面以及積壓方面是否有任何顏色,那裡的趨勢如何?

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • The only comment I made is we're designed in.

    我唯一的評論是,我們是被設計出來的。

  • We gained the share.

    我們獲得了份額。

  • We saw that in the strength getting into the second half of '24.

    我們看到了24年下半年的實力。

  • At this moment, in 2025, it's purely demand.

    目前,也就是 2025 年,這純粹是需求。

  • We're gaining share across all major customers.

    我們的市場份額正在所有主要客戶中不斷擴大。

  • But at this point in time, it is what they will end up achieving from, call it, vehicle -- EV vehicle sales.

    但就目前而言,這就是他們最終從電動車銷售中獲得的成果。

  • We will ramp accordingly.

    我們將相應增加。

  • But we're in a very good position with the customers.

    但我們在客戶面前處於非常有利的地位。

  • It's purely an end-demand commentary.

    這純粹是最終需求評論。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christopher Rolland, Susquehanna.

    克里斯多福羅蘭,薩斯奎哈納。

  • Christopher Rolland - Analyst

    Christopher Rolland - Analyst

  • Some others look like they're starting to see stabilization, and so I'm wondering about the delta there.

    其他一些國家似乎也開始看到穩定,所以我對那裡的差異感到疑惑。

  • Could this have been related to your emphasis on LTSAs?

    這可能與您對 LTSA 的重視有關嗎?

  • And with auto down, let's say, 25% quarter-over-quarter, I wouldn't imagine everyone is complying to LTSAs just given that drop.

    而且,由於汽車銷量環比下降,假設為 25%,我認為考慮到這一下降幅度,並不是每個人都會遵守 LTSA。

  • So do you think part of this kind of delayed responses around LTSAs?

    那麼您是否認為這是 LTSA 反應延遲的原因之一?

  • And then secondly, should we expect them to be renegotiated moving forward here?

    其次,我們是否應該期待就此重新進行談判?

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • We don't believe so because our stance has been -- we've been -- I've been very consistent across even the last couple of years that we've been negotiating LTSAs.

    我們不這麼認為,因為我們的立場一直是——我們一直——即使在過去幾年我們談判 LTSA 時,我的立場也是非常一致的。

  • We've been negotiating LTSAs to match demand as closely as the visibility at the time.

    我們一直在協商長期服務協議 (LTSA),以盡可能滿足當時的需求和可見性。

  • Some LTSAs have been negotiated multiple times.

    一些長期服務協議已經經過多次談判。

  • It's not something new that we're doing in Q1 of '25 as a response.

    我們在 2025 年第一季採取的應對措施並不是什麼新鮮事。

  • That's been a consistent and continuous effort that we have with the customer on really landing on to what I call the win-win.

    我們與客戶一起進行了持續不斷的努力,真正實現了我所說的雙贏。

  • So I don't believe that's got -- those two are related.

    所以我不相信這兩者有關聯。

  • I don't think the LTSA, call it, amendment or negotiation has accelerated.

    我不認為 LTSA、所謂的修正案或談判已經加速。

  • We've been consistent throughout 2024, as we are with the customers, trying to land to what the real demand environment is.

    在整個 2024 年,我們始終保持一致,與客戶保持一致,並努力了解真正的需求環境。

  • Because we -- what we did -- and again, I've been very consistent with that, we're not going to overship demand just adhere to the LTSAs.

    因為我們 — — 我們所做的 — — 而且我一直非常堅持這一點,我們不會超額供應需求,只需遵守長期供應協議 (LTSA)。

  • So your comment, are customers abiding by the LTSAs, they are, but they're a change in the LTSAs over the last few quarters, call it, just to be able to land where they believe and we believe a healthy inventory digestion happens in order for us to get back to what the net demand is.

    所以您的評論是,客戶是否遵守 LTSA,是的,但是過去幾季 LTSA 發生了變化,只是為了能夠達到他們相信的水平,我們相信健康的庫存消化會發生,以便我們回到淨需求的水平。

  • That's been our approach for the last few years.

    這是我們過去幾年一直採取的做法。

  • That remains our approach even into 2025.

    即使到了 2025 年,我們仍將堅持這一方針。

  • Christopher Rolland - Analyst

    Christopher Rolland - Analyst

  • Excellent.

    出色的。

  • And there was not a lot of discussion around image sensor.

    關於影像感測器的討論並不多。

  • I'm just wondering how much of that auto weakness is related to image sensor?

    我只是想知道自動弱點有多少與影像感測器有關?

  • Is there anything to note in terms of pricing or competition or internalization in China?

    在中國的定價、競爭或內部化方面有什麼需要注意的嗎?

  • How would you classify image sensor overall?

    您會如何對影像感測器進行總體分類?

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think image sensor has been, call it, more stable.

    我認為影像感測器已經變得更加穩定了。

  • I don't -- I wouldn't call anything up or down.

    我不會——我不會把任何事情稱為上升或下降。

  • Our approach for image sensor has been the same for the last few years.

    過去幾年來,我們對影像感測器的方法一直保持不變。

  • We walked -- we've been, call it, trimming our portfolio.

    我們一直在——可以這麼說,削減我們的投資組合。

  • We're not aiming to be number 1 market share with atrocious profits.

    我們的目標並不是佔據市場份額第一並獲得巨額利潤。

  • While we've used the shortages in the last few years because remember, all that business is outsourced.

    然而,我們在過去幾年中已經利用了短缺,因為請記住,所有業務都是外包的。

  • What we've done over the last few years is refocus our efforts and refocus our image sensing business to what we call machine win, where the quality of the image sensor is where the value comes in, because it's really processed directly by a machine versus an LCD.

    過去幾年我們所做的就是重新集中精力,將影像感測業務的重點轉移到我們所謂的「機器取勝」上,影像感測器的品質就是價值所在,因為它實際上是由機器而不是 LCD 直接處理的。

  • That's been ongoing.

    這一直在進行中。

  • We're happy with the consistency of that business.

    我們對該業務的一致性感到滿意。

  • We are ramping the 8-megapixel as the market shifts.

    隨著市場的變化,我們也不斷提升 800 萬像素的解析度。

  • But that business is, I would call it, more stable.

    但我認為這項業務更加穩定。

  • We do see competition, and we're attacking it as we see fit.

    我們確實看到了競爭,並且我們正在以我們認為合適的方式應對競爭。

  • But again, just like I mentioned on overall portfolio, we are focusing where we add value, not where we can just ship units.

    但是,就像我在整體投資組合中提到的那樣,我們關注的是能夠增加價值的地方,而不是僅僅能夠發貨的地方。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gary Mobley, Loop Capital.

    加里·莫布利(Gary Mobley),Loop Capital。

  • Gary Mobley - Analyst

    Gary Mobley - Analyst

  • You were -- you're clear on your messaging with respect to noncore products and the pricing pressures in that particular product group.

    您—您對於非核心產品以及該特定產品組的定價壓力的訊息表達得非常清楚。

  • But maybe if you could talk about pricing trends for core products, I presume you just went through annual price negotiations.

    但如果您可以談談核心產品的定價趨勢,我假設您剛剛經歷了年度價格談判。

  • Perhaps you can give us an update on pricing trends there for the vast majority of your business.

    也許您可以向我們介紹貴公司絕大部分業務的定價趨勢的最新情況。

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Look, I think the -- what people refer to the annual price negotiation, which is a Q4 negotiation with an impact in Q1, we're not seeing that.

    看,我認為——人們提到的年度價格談判,也就是對第一季有影響的第四季度談判,我們並沒有看到這一點。

  • Are there benefits and efficiencies that we have done in our product?

    我們的產品是否帶來了益處和效率?

  • We've talked about our Fab Right.

    我們已經討論過我們的 Fab Right。

  • We've talked about taking costs out of the products.

    我們已經討論過降低產品成本。

  • Of course, as we do that, customers see some of that benefit as our margin expense from a, call it, standard margin.

    當然,當我們這樣做時,客戶會看到其中的一些好處,即我們的保證金費用(我們可以稱之為標準保證金)。

  • If I take out the underutilization that Thad walked you through, I focus really -- when I talk about value of the products, I focus on our standard margin, taking out the manufacturing underutilization in the short term.

    如果我去掉泰德向您介紹的製造利用不足問題,我真正關注的是——當我談論產品價值時,我關注的是我們的標準的利潤率,在短期內消除製造利用不足的問題。

  • If I look at that, that's been very consistent because we are offsetting whatever discussions we have with the customer.

    如果我看一下,就會發現這是非常一致的,因為我們正在抵消與客戶進行的任何討論。

  • We are offsetting it with efficiencies of our own internally.

    我們正在透過內部提高效率來抵消這一影響。

  • Those, I wouldn't call it pricing negotiation.

    這些,我不會稱之為定價談判。

  • Those are efficiencies.

    這些都是效率。

  • Because the typical pricing negotiation that you're referring to -- look, there's no demand out there.

    因為您所指的典型的價格談判——看,那裡沒有需求。

  • So you give price reduction just for the heck of it.

    所以你就為了好玩而降價。

  • Then you end up with a gross margin headwind and no additional demand.

    那麼您最終會面臨毛利率下滑和沒有額外需求的情況。

  • There's no demand elasticity based on proprietary products, which is where our focus has been.

    不存在基於專有產品的需求彈性,而這正是我們關注的重點。

  • But from an efficiency perspective, of course, we are working with customers to support their transition to our new products as we gain those efficiencies.

    但從效率的角度來看,當然,我們正在與客戶合作,以支持他們在我們獲得這些效率的同時過渡到我們的新產品。

  • But net-net, it's good for margin and good for the customer.

    但總體而言,這對利潤和客戶都有好處。

  • Gary Mobley - Analyst

    Gary Mobley - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Just my follow-up on about silicon carbide for sourcing.

    這只是我對碳化矽採購的後續問題。

  • The market overall for devices clearly underperformed expectations in 2024, and there seems to be more adequate supply of raw wafers coming from China.

    2024 年,設備市場整體表現明顯低於預期,來自中國的原始晶圓供應似乎更充足。

  • So any update on your internal sourcing of raw and epi wafers, whether that be internal or external?

    那麼,您對原始晶圓和外延晶圓的內部採購有什麼更新嗎,無論是內部還是外部?

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No.

    不。

  • No, we've been -- well, we do both internal and external.

    不,我們一直——嗯,我們既做內部工作,也做外部工作。

  • We have a lot of sources qualified externally, and we will manage the transition internal/external.

    我們擁有大量外部合格資源,我們將管理內部/外部的過渡。

  • As far as mix, there's the -- first, what you have to think about is the certainty of supply in a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty.

    就組合而言,首先,你必須考慮的是在地緣政治不確定性的背景下供應的確定性。

  • If you take that out, we are basically balancing our internal and external.

    如果你把它去掉,我們基本上就是在平衡內部和外部。

  • We have qualified both internal and external.

    我們已經獲得了內部和外部的資格。

  • As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we've also qualified 200-millimeter, and we've qualified the 350-micron thick substrates, which is state-of-the-art today from a silicon carbide wafer thickness.

    正如我在準備好的演講中提到的,我們還對 200 毫米和 350 微米厚的基板進行了認證,這是當今碳化矽晶片厚度的最先進水平。

  • And those are running in the fab, and we sampled customers.

    這些產品正在工廠中運行,我們已經向客戶進行了抽樣。

  • So from an execution perspective, we're on track.

    因此從執行的角度來看,我們正在步入正軌。

  • From a mix perspective, we have full flexibility.

    從混合角度來看,我們具有充分的靈活性。

  • We believe we're in the best of both worlds where we can do internal and external.

    我們相信,我們可以同時做好內部和外部工作,從而實現兩全其美。

  • And we will continue to refine the mix between internal and external as we proceed through 2025 and as we get some stability and clarity in the, call it, the geopolitical environment.

    隨著我們進入 2025 年,隨著地緣政治環境逐漸穩定和明朗,我們將繼續優化內部和外部之間的結合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的喬‧夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

  • Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

    Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

  • On the $350 million to $400 million price-sensitive revenue that you're thinking this year, are there any end markets or geographies in particular that we should think about as being more price-sensitive or more aggressive there?

    對於您今年考慮的 3.5 億至 4 億美元價格敏感型收入,是否有任何特定的終端市場或地區我們應該考慮使其對價格更加敏感或更具侵略性?

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No.

    不。

  • I think it's more of a product rather than a region.

    我認為它更多的是一種產品而不是一個地區。

  • What I mean by that is more market products.

    我的意思是更多的市場產品。

  • Now it could be that some of these markets are more skewed to a region.

    現在,其中一些市場可能會更加偏向某個地區。

  • Well, we don't look at it as a region.

    嗯,我們不把它看作一個地區。

  • We don't have local pricing practices based on region.

    我們沒有基於地區的本地定價慣例。

  • We look at it as a product and end markets.

    我們將其視為產品和終端市場。

  • So that's kind of how I look at the noncore revenue.

    這就是我對非核心收入的看法。

  • Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

    Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • And then I think in your deck, you talked about AI data center revenue growing more than 40% in 2024.

    然後我認為您在演講中談到了到 2024 年 AI 資料中心的收入將成長 40% 以上。

  • Just wondering how you're thinking about the growth opportunity in '25 with the potential acceleration from the JFET business.

    只是想知道,隨著 JFET 業務的潛在加速發展,您如何看待 25 年的成長機會。

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We expect that business to continue to grow as we -- we've had some penetration in the second half of '24.

    我們預計業務將繼續成長,因為我們在 24 年下半年已經實現了一定的滲透。

  • Of course, that will continue to grow on an annual basis.

    當然,這數字每年都會持續成長。

  • We do have some platforms that we are designed in, and those will start adding up to the 2025.

    我們確實有一些正在設計的平台,這些平台將在 2025 年開始增加。

  • So we're on beat with the design cycle in that market with our new products.

    因此,我們的新產品緊跟著該市場的設計週期。

  • And looking forward, our Treo platform, with the fast time to market and really the integration, will start getting us a faster beat so we can do more and more aggressive portfolio introductions for that.

    展望未來,我們的 Treo 平台將憑藉其快速的上市時間和真正的集成,為我們帶來更快的發展,因此我們可以為此進行更多、更積極的產品組合推出。

  • But we're in a good spot today.

    但我們今天的情況很好。

  • That growth will continue in '25.

    這種成長勢頭將在25年持續下去。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tore Svanberg, Stifel.

    托爾·思文伯格(Tore Svanberg),Stifel 公司。

  • Tore Svanberg - Analyst

    Tore Svanberg - Analyst

  • I had a question about gross margin and when the recovery comes.

    我有一個關於毛利率和復甦時間的問題。

  • Should we still think about the 20 to 25 basis points in improvement per utilization -- well, per increase in utilization?

    我們是否也應該考慮每次利用率提高 20 到 25 個基點——嗯,每次利用率提高?

  • And Thad, I assume that that's sort of a comment prior to some of these site changes that you are considering.

    泰德,我認為這是在你考慮進行某些網站變更之前所作的評論。

  • Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    Thad Trent - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • That's right.

    這是正確的。

  • If you think about the 20 to 25 is from here to low 60, right?

    如果您想想 20 到 25 是從這裡到 60 以下,對嗎?

  • After that, go back to the 15 to 20 basis points, right, as you just get the scale there.

    之後,回到 15 到 20 個基點,對的,因為您剛剛得到了那裡的比例。

  • So the change there was the fact that our fixed costs are becoming a larger percent of the overall factory cost.

    所以變化的事實是我們的固定成本在整個工廠成本中所佔的比例越來越大。

  • You can only cut so much variable cost, right?

    你只能削減這麼多的變動成本,對嗎?

  • And so we're kind of getting down when you're -- when you're stepping down into the 50% range, you're kind of hitting up against that.

    所以,當你降到 50% 的範圍時,你就會遇到這種情況。

  • So you'll get to a point where you get -- you start to get some scale and then we go back to the 15 to 20 basis points, similar to the numbers we've given you in the past.

    因此,您將達到一個點,您開始獲得一些規模,然後我們回到 15 到 20 個基點,類似於我們過去給您的數字。

  • But yes, that is all based on current capacity.

    但確實,這一切都基於目前的容量。

  • Tore Svanberg - Analyst

    Tore Svanberg - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • That's very helpful.

    這非常有幫助。

  • And as my follow-up on Treo, how should we sort of track the financial success of that business?

    作為我對 Treo 的後續關注,我們應該如何追蹤該業務的財務成功?

  • Are you going to be perhaps sharing with us revenue associated to that business or the impact to gross margin in any given quarter?

    您是否會與我們分享與該業務相關的收入或對某個季度毛利率的影響?

  • Just trying to understand financially how we should track the success of Treo.

    只是想從財務角度了解我們應該如何追蹤 Treo 的成功。

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No.

    不。

  • The intent for me to give you kind of the updates as we report on, call it, the early milestones because those are the leading indicators.

    我的目的是向您提供我們報告的更新信息,我們稱之為早期里程碑,因為這些是領先指標。

  • So what you'd expect is product introductions confirmation of the margin profile and maybe at some point, depending on the customer and their willingness, is joint announcements with customers as they design it in.

    因此,您所期望的是產品推出時對利潤率狀況的確認,並且可能在某個時候,取決於客戶及其意願,在設計時與客戶進行聯合公告。

  • We have customers, as I mentioned, that are starting.

    正如我所提到的,我們有一些剛起步的客戶。

  • We'll start to ramp in 2025.

    我們將在 2025 年開始加大產能。

  • So first revenue is actually going to happen, but don't expect to update on a quarterly beat or on an annual beat at that level of granularity.

    因此,第一筆收入實際上會發生,但不要指望以這種精細程度按季度或年度進行更新。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler.

    哈什·庫馬爾,派珀·桑德勒。

  • Harsh Kumar - Analyst

    Harsh Kumar - Analyst

  • Hassane and Thad, I had two qualitative ones for you.

    哈桑和薩德,我有兩個定性問題想問你們。

  • I think earlier you mentioned you're still undershipping relative to your true demand.

    我想您之前提到過,相對於您的實際需求,您的出貨量仍然不足。

  • So I was curious if you could give us an idea starting off with the guide that you gave for the March quarter, if you were just to kind of give us an idea of what your true demand estimate is?

    所以我很好奇,您是否可以從您給出的 3 月份季度指南開始,給我們一個想法,您是否能告訴我們您的真實需求估計是多少?

  • In other words, how much are you undershipping or what is a table to take for your business, if you were not to undership?

    換句話說,如果您的出貨量充足,那麼出貨量不足多少?

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's a hard one because unless you have -- first, unless you have 100% visibility of what the inventory is at the -- by customer, but also demand is a moving target.

    這是一個很難的問題,因為除非你——首先,除非你 100% 清楚客戶的庫存狀況,而且需求也是一個移動的目標。

  • Demand has not stabilized.

    需求尚未穩定。

  • As we've talked about, and I think some of my peers have talked about -- different peers talk about different end markets.

    正如我們所討論的,而且我認為我的一些同行也討論過——不同的同行談論不同的終端市場。

  • But I think what's consistent across the board is demand has not really landed and stabilized.

    但我認為,各方面一致的觀點是需求尚未真正下降和穩定。

  • So as that's a moving target, inventory remains -- or inventory levels that they -- customers would like to see remains a moving target.

    因此,由於這是一個移動的目標,庫存保持不變——或者說客戶希望看到的庫存水準仍然是一個移動的目標。

  • That's why when we talk about -- at some point, it has to snap back, and we'll see that when we get there.

    這就是為什麼當我們談論——在某個時候,它必須迅速恢復,當我們到達那裡時我們就會看到這一點。

  • But today, we're just managing to what we can see while making sure -- we're making sure we don't overship.

    但今天,我們只是在管理我們能看到的東西,同時確保——我們確保不會超額發貨。

  • But back to the LTSA question, which is the reason we keep negotiating the LTSAs, we want to make sure we are at or below demand in order to accelerate to the extent we can, the inventory burn.

    但回到 LTSA 問題,這也是我們不斷談判 LTSA 的原因,我們希望確保我們處於或低於需求,以便盡可能加速庫存消耗。

  • So we do get to a normalized view soon.

    因此我們很快就會獲得正常的觀點。

  • Harsh Kumar - Analyst

    Harsh Kumar - Analyst

  • I got it.

    我得到了它。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And then I wanted to ask you about one of your neighboring companies and based in Arizona also.

    然後我想問你們關於你們附近的一家公司的情況,該公司的總部也位於亞利桑那州。

  • They supposedly had some of the worst inventory problems, and they've guideposting as bad as perhaps yours, I mean, neither the automotive nor the total guide.

    據稱,他們的庫存問題最為嚴重,而且他們的指南可能和你的一樣糟糕,我的意思是,無論是汽車指南還是總指南。

  • And I was curious what the puts -- I'm not asking you to comment on their business, but I'm trying to understand -- I guess, what I'm trying to say is, are you kind of pad for some level of decline that you're building in based on your judgment?

    我很好奇,我不是要求您對他們的業務發表評論,而是試圖了解,我想說的是,您是否根據您的判斷為某種程度的下滑做好了準備?

  • Or are you strictly giving us a guide based on what you're seeing?

    或者您只是嚴格根據您所看到的情況為我們提供指導?

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's purely based on what I can see.

    這完全基於我所看到的內容。

  • I don't give guide, and I'm not running the company based on what peers have done.

    我不提供指導,也不根據同行所做的事情來經營公司。

  • Of course, I look at the peers -- what peers have done across the border and across their earnings and what they look at, but everything you get from me is purely in context of onsemi.

    當然,我會關注同行——同行在跨境方面做了什麼,他們的收益以及他們關注的是什麼,但你從我這裡得到的一切純粹都是在 onsemi 的背景下。

  • Because everybody has a different portfolio, everybody has a different strategy.

    因為每個人的投資組合都不同,所以每個人都有不同的策略。

  • So I can't really peg anything to it.

    因此我實在無法將任何東西與此掛鉤。

  • From a -- however, what I would say is from an inventory, inventory I can control, from an internal inventory and DC inventory.

    從 — — 但是,我想說的是來自庫存,我可以控制的庫存,來自內部庫存和 DC 庫存。

  • Our internal inventory clicked up in days, but in dollars, consistent.

    我們的內部庫存在幾天內有所增加,但以美元計算,則保持穩定。

  • So we have been very disciplined about maintaining and not letting our inventory get out of line.

    因此,我們一直非常嚴格地維護庫存,不讓庫存失控。

  • So the margin that you see is a pure margin, not inflated by an inventory build at all.

    因此,您看到的利潤是純利潤,完全沒有因為庫存增加而膨脹。

  • So that's point number one, where our discipline comes in.

    這就是第一點,也是我們的學科所在。

  • From a disti, you've also seen us be very consistent on our disti.

    從 disti 來看,您也看到我們在 disti 上非常一致。

  • Actually, the distribution inventory in Q4 dropped $55 million.

    實際上,第四季的分銷庫存下降了 5,500 萬美元。

  • So we drained -- as we saw the softness in Q4, towards the end of Q4, we took decisive action and we reduced this inventory by $55 million in the quarter.

    因此,當我們看到第四季度的疲軟時,在第四季度末,我們採取了果斷行動,並在本季度減少了 5500 萬美元的庫存。

  • So the inventory that we have visibility and the ones we control, we are very disciplined again, so when we see a recovery happen, we turn on manufacturing, utilization goes up, revenue goes up, margin will go up accordingly.

    因此,我們對可見的庫存和我們控制的庫存非常自律,因此當我們看到復甦時,我們就會啟動製造,利用率就會上升,收入就會上升,利潤率也會相應上升。

  • That's what we're running the company to achieve, and that's why we will continue to focus on the stuff that we can control.

    這就是我們經營公司的目標,這也是為什麼我們會繼續專注於我們能夠控制的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the Q&A portion of today's conference call.

    女士們、先生們,今天電話會議的問答部分到此結束。

  • I'd like to turn the call back over to Hassane El-Khoury, President and CEO, for any further remarks.

    我想將電話轉回給總裁兼執行長 Hassane El-Khoury,以便他可以發表進一步的評論。

  • Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Hassane El-Khoury - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you all for joining us on the call this morning.

    感謝大家今天上午參加我們的電話會議。

  • And I want to thank our worldwide employees, again, for their perseverance through this downturn.

    我還要再次感謝我們全球的員工,感謝他們在經濟低迷時期的堅持。

  • Remaining focused on operational excellence and innovation will enable us to continue to drive value for our customers and shareholders and emerge stronger than we were going into this.

    持續專注於卓越營運和創新將使我們能夠繼續為客戶和股東創造價值,並變得比之前更強大。

  • We intend to provide additional information on our progress at a future date.

    我們打算在未來提供有關我們進展的更多資訊。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation.

    女士們、先生們,今天的演講到此結束。

  • You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

    現在您可以斷開連接並享受美好的一天。