(NTR) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2023 Third Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Holzman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁傑夫霍爾茲曼 (Jeff Holzman)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's third quarter 2023 earnings call.

謝謝你，接線生。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain material assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form filed with Canadian and U.S. Securities Commissions.

當我們進行本次電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計劃和前景所做的各種聲明都包含前瞻性資訊。在做出這些結論和預測時應用了某些實質假設。因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性資訊中包含的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的更多資訊包含在我們向股東提交的季度報告以及我們最近的年度報告、MD&A 以及向加拿大和美國證券委員會提交的年度資訊表中。

I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, President and CEO, and Pedro Farah, our CFO, for opening comments before we take your questions.

現在，我將把電話轉給總裁兼執行長肯·塞茨 (Ken Seitz) 和財務長佩德羅·法拉赫 (Pedro Farah)，讓他們在回答你們的問題之前發表評論。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion in the third quarter and $5 billion through the first 9 months of the year, down from the record comparable periods in 2022. We saw a number of positive market developments in the third quarter that are constructive for our business, including strong crop nutrient demand in North America and increased stability in global potash markets. In retail, North American crop nutrient sales volumes were up 5% in the third quarter and 10% on a year-to-date basis as growers were incentivized to maximize crop production.

Nutrien 第三季的調整後EBITDA 為11 億美元，今年前9 個月的調整後EBITDA 為50 億美元，低於2022 年同期創紀錄的水平。第三季我們看到了許多積極的市場發展，這對我們的業務具有建設性，包括北美作物養分需求強勁以及全球鉀肥市場穩定性增強。在零售方面，由於種植者受到激勵以最大限度地提高作物產量，北美作物養分銷量在第三季度增長了 5%，與年初至今相比增長了 10%。

North American crop nutrient margins in the quarter increased by $10 per tonne compared to the prior year, supported by improved margins for commodity fertilizers and growth in our proprietary crop nutritional and biostimulant products. These high-value proprietary products contributed nearly $350 million in gross margin through the first 9 months of 2023.

由於商品化肥利潤的提高以及我們專有的作物營養和生物刺激素產品的增長，本季北美作物養分利潤比前一年每噸增加了 10 美元。到 2023 年頭 9 個月，這些高價值專有產品貢獻了近 3.5 億美元的毛利率。

Crop protection sales in North America were down from the record prior year due to lower prices for certain commodity products and slightly lower sales volumes, a result of dry conditions in the U.S. Midwest. We ended the quarter with North American crop protection inventories down more than $200 million from the prior year, and we will be patient with our approach to restocking inventories.

由於美國中西部乾旱導致某些大宗商品價格下降以及銷售量略有下降，北美作物保護銷售額較上年創紀錄下降。本季結束時，北美作物保護庫存比去年減少了 2 億多美元，我們將對補充庫存的方法保持耐心。

Crop protection inventories in South America remained more elevated, resulting in pressure on prices and margins. Crop nutrient volumes for our South American retail business were up 25% in the third quarter due to improved grower demand and the benefits of our Casa do Adubo acquisition in the fourth quarter of 2022.

南美洲的植保庫存仍然較高，導致價格和利潤面臨壓力。由於種植者需求的改善以及我們在 2022 年第四季度收購 Casa do Adubo 的好處，我們南美零售業務的作物養分量在第三季度增長了 25%。

Nutrien financial sales increased in the third quarter and first 9 months of 2023 due to higher utilization of our financing offerings in the U.S. as well as the recent launch of our digitally enabled financing program in Australia. We are pleased with the uptake of our financing programs and see additional opportunity to drive organic growth for our retail business.

由於我們在美國的融資產品利用率更高以及最近在澳洲推出了數位化融資計劃，Nutrien 金融銷售額在 2023 年第三季和前 9 個月有所增長。我們對融資計劃的採用感到高興，並看到了推動零售業務有機成長的更多機會。

In potash, we delivered record sales volumes totaling 3.9 million tonnes in the third quarter. North American channel inventories were at multiyear lows entering the second half, and customers secured supply in anticipation of a strong fall application season. We had a very positive response to our summer fill program, utilizing the strength of our distribution network to deliver 1.7 million tonnes to customers in North America.

在鉀肥方面，我們第三季的銷售量達到創紀錄的 390 萬噸。進入下半年，北美通路庫存處於多年來的低點，客戶因預計秋季應用季節強勁而確保了供應。我們對夏季灌裝計劃的反應非常積極，利用我們分銷網絡的優勢向北美客戶交付了 170 萬噸。

Our potash volumes and net realized prices were impacted by logistical challenges associated with the port strike in Vancouver and an outage of Canpotex's export terminal in Portland. Shipments through Vancouver returned to normal late in the quarter, and we expect the Portland terminal to be operational by the end of the year.

我們的鉀肥產量和淨實現價格受到溫哥華港口罷工和波特蘭 Canpotex 出口碼頭停運帶來的物流挑戰的影響。通過溫哥華的貨運量在本季末恢復正常，我們預計波特蘭碼頭將在今年年底投入營運。

We increased granular potash production to meet the surge in domestic demand, and our controllable cash cost declined to $56 per tonne in the third quarter, highlighting the advantages of our low-cost 6 mine network.

我們增加顆粒鉀產量以滿足國內需求的激增，第三季我們的可控現金成本下降到每噸56美元，凸顯了我們低成本的6礦網路的優勢。

Our nitrogen realized prices in the third quarter reflected the reset and benchmark values at the time of summer fill programs. Nitrogen sales volumes declined from the prior year due to production outages at our Trinidad, Borger and Geismar plants. We completed 2 smaller brownfield expansions at our Geismar facility and installed the final of 8 N2O abatement projects at our nitrogen sites, which we expect will be a key contributor to reducing our greenhouse gas emissions.

我們第三季的氮實現價格反映了夏季填充計畫時的重置值和基準值。由於特立尼達、博格和蓋斯馬爾工廠的生產中斷，氮氣銷量較前一年下降。我們在 Geismar 工廠完成了 2 個較小的棕地擴建，並在我們的氮工廠安裝了 8 個 N2O 減排項目中的最後一個，我們預計這將成為減少溫室氣體排放的關鍵因素。

Phosphate sales volumes increased in the third quarter due to a strong engagement from phosphate fertilizer customers. We did, however, encounter hurricane-related downtime in our White Springs facility that impacted production volumes and costs. Excluding this downtime, our phosphate plants have operated well following the completion of reliability initiatives in the first half of 2023.

由於磷肥客戶的積極參與，第三季磷銷量增加。然而，我們的懷特斯普林斯工廠確實遇到了與颶風相關的停機，影響了產量和成本。排除此停機時間，我們的磷酸鹽工廠在 2023 年上半年完成可靠性計畫後運作良好。

Now turning to the market outlook. Global grain yields are projected to fall below trend in 2023 for the fourth consecutive year, limiting any meaningful recovery in stocks. New corn crop and soybean prices have incurred some seasonal pressure but remain 10% to 15% above the 10-year average. Fertilizer affordability has improved significantly over the past year, and projected grower cash margins are above historical average levels. Harvest in the U.S. has progressed ahead of average, providing an open window for fall fieldwork. We project U.S. fertilizer demand will be up 5% to 10% in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year.

現在轉向市場前景。預計 2023 年全球糧食產量將連續第四年低於趨勢水平，從而限制庫存的任何有意義的復甦。新玉米和大豆價格遭受了一些季節性壓力，但仍比 10 年平均值高出 10% 至 15%。過去一年，肥料的承受能力顯著提高，預計種植者的現金利潤率將高於歷史平均值。美國的收成進度超過平均水平，為秋季田間工作提供了一個開放的窗口。我們預計第四季美國化肥需求將比去年同期成長 5% 至 10%。

Global potash demand has increased in the second half, driven by greater price stability and improved grower affordability, absorbing the gradual increase in Eastern European export volumes. We now forecast global potash shipments in the range of 65 million to 67 million tonnes in 2023. We expect robust agricultural fundamentals and the need to replenish soil nutrient levels will support increased potash consumption in 2024. We project global potash shipments next year in the range of 67 million to 71 million tonnes with the majority of year-over-year growth in Southeast Asia, Latin America, Europe and India.

受價格穩定和種植者承受能力提高的推動，下半年全球鉀肥需求增加，吸收了東歐出口量的逐步成長。我們目前預測2023 年全球鉀肥出貨量將在6500 萬至6700 萬噸之間。我們預計強勁的農業基本面和補充土壤養分水平的需求將支持2024 年鉀肥消費量的增加。我們預計明年全球鉀肥出貨量將在6,700萬噸至7,100萬噸，其中大部分年增來自東南亞、拉丁美洲、歐洲和印度。

Global ammonia supply has been tight to start the fourth quarter due to outages in Europe and production challenges in other key regions. Urea markets are relatively balanced as Chinese export restrictions and strong import demand in India offset weaker seasonal demand in other regions.

由於歐洲停電和其他主要地區的生產挑戰，全球氨供應從第四季度開始就一直緊張。由於中國的出口限制和印度強勁的進口需求抵消了其他地區季節性需求的疲軟，尿素市場相對平衡。

Geopolitical conflicts have the potential to create additional volatility for global energy prices and nitrogen supply. Most notably, European natural gas prices have increased by 20% over the past month, and nitrogen production in Egypt has reportedly been curtailed due to gas availability.

地緣政治衝突有可能為全球能源價格和氮供應帶來額外的波動。最值得注意的是，過去一個月歐洲天然氣價格上漲了 20%，據報道埃及的氮氣產量因天然氣供應而減少。

To summarize, agricultural fundamentals remain supportive, and we are seeing strong demand for crop nutrients and from our grower customers. Global potash demand has strengthened in the second half of 2023, and we expect this trend will continue into 2024. And we anticipate constraints on global energy and nitrogen supply will continue to provide a positive backdrop for our low-cost nitrogen assets.

總而言之，農業基本面仍然具有支撐性，我們看到種植者客戶對作物營養素的強勁需求。全球鉀肥需求在 2023 年下半年有所增強，我們預計這一趨勢將持續到 2024 年。我們預計全球能源和氮供應的限制將繼續為我們的低成本氮資產提供積極的背景。

I will now turn it over to Pedro to review our guidance assumptions and capital allocation plans.

我現在將把它交給佩德羅審查我們的指導假設和資本配置計劃。

Thanks, Ken. I will start with our updated guidance for potash. We increased the bottom end of our full year potash adjusted EBITDA and sales volume guidance to reflect the strength of our market fundamentals in North America. We continue to see strong customer engagement and have increased our domestic reference price for deliveries in the fourth quarter. Spot prices in offshore markets have been relatively stable, and Canpotex is fully committed on its sales plan for the remainder of 2023.

謝謝，肯。我將從更新的鉀肥指南開始。我們提高了全年鉀肥調整後 EBITDA 和銷售指引的下限，以反映我們北美市場基本面的實力。我們繼續看到強勁的客戶參與度，並提高了第四季度的國內交貨參考價格。離岸市場現貨價格相對穩定，Canpotex 完全致力於 2023 年剩餘時間的銷售計劃。

In nitrogen, we narrowed our adjusted EBITDA guidance range as higher benchmark prices offset lower projected sales volumes. Our North American nitrogen plants are operating at higher utilization rates in the fourth quarter, including Geismar, where we recently completed expansion projects. We made the decision to bring forward a planned outage at our Borger site to address reliability issues that impacted production in the third quarter.

在氮氣方面，我們縮小了調整後的 EBITDA 指引範圍，因為較高的基準價格抵消了較低的預期銷售量。我們的北美氮工廠第四季度的利用率較高，其中包括我們最近完成的擴建項目的 Geismar。我們決定提前實施 Borger 站點的計畫停電，以解決影響第三季生產的可靠性問題。

We lowered the top end of our retail adjusted EBITDA guidance range to reflect pressure on crop protection margins in South America and the impact of weaker livestock markets in Australia. We maintain our outlook for North American retail business as fall fertilizer application rates have been strong and per tonne margins are expected to be above historical average levels. Based on these factors, Nutrien's full year adjusted EBITDA guidance range was narrowed to $5.8 billion to $6.4 billion, and adjusted net earnings was revised to $4.15 to $5.00 per share.

我們降低了零售調整後 EBITDA 指導範圍的上限，以反映南美作物保護利潤率面臨的壓力以及澳洲牲畜市場疲軟的影響。我們維持對北美零售業務的展望，因為秋季化肥施用率強勁，每噸利潤預計將高於歷史平均水平。基於這些因素，Nutrien全年調整後EBITDA指引範圍收窄至58億美元至64億美元，調整後淨利修正為每股4.15美元至5.00美元。

Our effective tax rate on adjusted earnings in 2023 has been impacted by non-cash impairments and an unfavorable geographic mix of earnings. We do not expect these to be recurring items and anticipate our effective tax rate will return to more historical levels in 2024.

我們 2023 年調整後收益的有效稅率受到非現金減損和不利的收益地域組合的影響。我們預計這些不會成為經常性項目，並預計我們的有效稅率將在 2024 年恢復到歷史水平。

We are projecting total capital expenditures of approximately $2.7 billion in 2023 and plan to return over $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We are focused on investments to sustain our assets in highly targeted growth projects in our retail, potash and nitrogen businesses. Based on current plan initiatives, we expect to reduce annual capital expenditures to a range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion going forward.

我們預計 2023 年的總資本支出約為 27 億美元，並計劃透過股利和股票回購向股東返還超過 20 億美元。我們專注於投資，以維持我們零售、鉀肥和氮肥業務領域針對性強的成長項目中的資產。根據目前的計畫舉措，我們預計未來年度資本支出將減少至 20 億至 25 億美元。

In retail, our focus is on increasing earnings and free cash flow by enhancing margins and asset efficiency. This includes investing in our proprietary products production capability, network optimization and digital initiatives, which are all key drivers of organic growth for retail. We continue to evaluate retail tuck-in acquisitions in the U.S. and Australia and will remain selective based on strategic fit and valuation.

在零售業，我們的重點是透過提高利潤和資產效率來增加收益和自由現金流。這包括投資於我們的專有產品生產能力、網路優化和數位化計劃，這些都是零售業有機成長的關鍵驅動力。我們將繼續評估美國和澳洲的零售收購，並將根據策略契合度和估值進行選擇性收購。

In Brazil, we believe the long-term prospects for agriculture are very strong and see opportunity for future growth of our retail platform. However, in the near term, we have paused additional investments until there is greater stabilization of the market. We will utilize this period to integrate recent acquisitions and optimize our cost structure.

在巴西，我們相信農業的長期前景非常強勁，並看到我們零售平台未來成長的機會。然而，在短期內，我們暫停了額外的投資，直到市場更加穩定。我們將利用這段時間整合最近的收購並優化我們的成本結構。

In potash, our midcycle scenario assumes global demand returns to historical trend and nutrient sales volumes in the range of 14 million to 15 million tonnes. This translates into volume growth potential from existing operational capability of 1 million to 2 million tonnes compared to 2023. We are continuing to focus on further automation of our fleet, enhancing safety and productivity of our markets.

對於鉀肥，我們的中期情境假設全球需求恢復到歷史趨勢，且營養鹽銷量在 1,400 萬噸至 1,500 萬噸之間。與 2023 年相比，這意味著現有營運能力的產量成長潛力為 100 萬噸至 200 萬噸。我們將繼續專注於船隊的進一步自動化，提高市場的安全性和生產力。

Lastly, in nitrogen, our priority is to complete inflight brownfield expansion and reliability projects that support our midcycle sales volume scenario of 11.5 million to 12 million tonnes. Brownfield projects are expected to add approximately 0.5 million tonnes of nitrogen production capability by 2026 with projected returns well above our hurdle rate.

最後，在氮氣方面，我們的首要任務是完成機上棕地擴張和可靠性項目，以支援我們 1,150 萬噸至 1,200 萬噸的中期銷售情境。預計到 2026 年，棕地計畫將增加約 50 萬噸氮氣產能，預計回報率將遠高於我們的預期回報率。

Back to you, Ken.

回到你身邊，肯。

Thanks, Pedro. I will just make a few final comments. We are encouraged by the positive market developments over the second half of 2023 and particularly the strength of crop nutrient demand in North America and increased stability in global potash markets. We are optimistic on the outlook for our business going forward, and we'll continue to position the company to efficiently serve the needs of our customers. Our focus is on initiatives that strengthen the advantages of our integrated model, drive operational efficiencies and increase free cash flow. As Pedro highlighted, we are proceeding with highly targeted investment opportunities and will maintain a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation, including the return of meaningful capital to our shareholders.

謝謝，佩德羅。我將僅做一些最後的評論。我們對 2023 年下半年市場的積極發展感到鼓舞，特別是北美作物養分需求的強勁以及全球鉀肥市場穩定性的增強。我們對未來的業務前景感到樂觀，我們將繼續使公司能夠有效地滿足客戶的需求。我們的重點是加強我們的綜合模式優勢、提高營運效率和增加自由現金流的措施。正如佩德羅所強調的那樣，我們正在進行針對性很強的投資機會，並將保持平衡和嚴格的資本配置方法，包括向股東返還有意義的資本。

We would now be happy to take your questions.

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明） 您的第一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Andrew Wong。

So Nutrien recently paused on adding some potash capacity, which looks like it was the right decision for the market. But then now one of your competitors, BHP, announced that they want to accelerate a Phase 2 project at Jansen. Like what's your thought on the economic rationale for that project? How does Nutrien view the future supply additions to the market and how Nutrien will respond to those changes in the market and just the broad impacts.

因此，Nutrien 最近暫停了增加一些鉀肥產能，這看起來對市場來說是正確的決定。但現在您的競爭對手之一必和必拓宣布他們希望加快詹森的第二期專案。您對該項目的經濟理由有何看法？ Nutrien 如何看待未來市場的供應增加以及 Nutrien 將如何應對市場的這些變化及其廣泛影響。

Good morning, Andrew. Thanks for the question. So yes, as we've discussed, we are in a growing market in our potash business. And that's owing to the things we talk about -- growing population, decreasing rate of arable land expansion. And backcasting over the last couple of decades, we've seen those growth rates, 2.5% average annual growth rate. So that as we've talked about, we get to the end of this decade and we're at 80 million tonnes. So a market that's growing. We continue to maintain our sort of 20% market share. And we have always had a Phase II for BHP's plans in our supply and demand forecast. So none of this is a surprise to us.

早安，安德魯。謝謝你的提問。所以，是的，正如我們所討論的，我們的鉀肥業務正處於一個不斷成長的市場。這是由於我們談論的事情——人口成長、耕地擴張速度下降。回顧過去幾十年，我們看到了這些成長率，平均年增長率為 2.5%。因此，正如我們所說，到本十年末，我們的產量將達到 8,000 萬噸。所以市場正在成長。我們繼續保持 20% 的市場份額。我們在供需預測中一直有必和必拓計畫的第二階段。因此，這一切對我們來說並不令人意外。

What I will say is, for our part and our ability to continue to expand volumes, yes, we've paused. But we've talked about or 18 million tonnes of low-cost additional capacity, the ability to expand beyond that in a demand environment that is growing. And I'll also say that -- so here we are. It's 2023. A first production announced Jansen 2026. I mean, these are challenging projects. We have 50 years of experience with that. And soft rock mining and ramping up in a Phase 1 takes time. It's technically challenging and then certainly going beyond that. So we are talking about volumes in Phase 2 that are in the next decade. In the meantime, Nutrien, with our flexible 6-mine network, the investments we've made in our supply chain, our customers around the planet, I mean, we will continue to serve those customers as the market grows.

我要說的是，就我們而言以及我們繼續擴大產量的能力而言，是的，我們已經暫停了。但我們已經談到了 1800 萬噸的低成本額外產能，以及在不斷增長的需求環境中擴大產能的能力。我還要說——所以我們到了。現在是 2023 年。第一部作品宣布《Jansen 2026》。我的意思是，這些都是具有挑戰性的項目。我們在這方面擁有 50 年的經驗。軟岩開採和第一階段的擴張需要時間。這在技術上具有挑戰性，而且肯定會超出這個範圍。因此，我們正在談論未來十年第二階段的銷售。同時，Nutrien 憑藉我們靈活的 6 礦網路、我們在供應鏈上的投資以及我們遍布全球的客戶，我的意思是，隨著市場的成長，我們將繼續為這些客戶提供服務。

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的本‧艾薩克森 (Ben Isaacson)。

Maybe to follow up on Andrew's question in terms of potash. Can you talk about the market balance for potash in 2024? Ken, you've said that you're looking for further demand growth in 2024, closer to the 67 million to 71 million tonne level. Some people are concerned about a slowdown in Southeast Asia because of El Nino. The Indian subsidy seems to be a little bit tepid for potash demand and Chinese inventories are high. And so how do you balance that against increasing production and exports out of Belarus and Russia? I guess the bottom line question is, do you see the market being tighter in 2024 than where we are right now?

也許是為了跟進安德魯關於鉀肥的問題。能談談2024年鉀肥的市場平衡嗎？ Ken，您說過您希望 2024 年需求進一步增長，接近 6700 萬噸至 7100 萬噸的水平。有些人擔心厄爾尼諾現象會導致東南亞經濟放緩。印度的補貼似乎對鉀肥需求有點不溫不火，而中國的庫存也很高。那麼，您如何平衡白俄羅斯和俄羅斯產量和出口的增加呢？我想最重要的問題是，您認為 2024 年市場會比現在更緊張嗎？

Yes. A lot going on there, Ben. Thank you for the question. So yes, we are constructive. And certainly, the experience we're having here in 2023, North America, Brazil, where we've seen strong demand. And that's on the back of much improved affordability among our grower customers. As I peer into 2024, again, we're constructive. And I'll hand it over to Mark Thompson to talk about the details. But we can see that grower affordability continuing. We've seen destocking of the channel. We've seen some depletion of crop nutrients in the soil and yet some supply side challenges persist. But Mark, over to you to maybe walk through some of those details.

是的。那裡發生了很多事情，本。感謝你的提問。所以，是的，我們是建設性的。當然，我們在 2023 年在北美、巴西經歷了強勁的需求。這是因為我們的種植者客戶的承受能力大大提高。當我展望 2024 年時，我們再次展現建設性的態度。我將把它交給馬克湯普森來討論細節。但我們可以看到種植者的承受能力仍在持續。我們已經看到該渠道的去庫存。我們已經看到土壤中作物養分的一些消耗，但供應方面的一些挑戰仍然存在。但是馬克，也許你會詳細介紹其中的一些細節。

Thanks, Ken. So look, maybe we'll just parse out your question to a few different pieces. I think just to reiterate, as Ken said, we have been encouraged by the stability that we've seen in prices, and the attractive affordability levels have really accelerated the return of demand to the potash market, which has certainly been a positive in 2023.

謝謝，肯。那麼，也許我們會將您的問題解析為幾個不同的部分。我想重申一下，正如 Ken 所說，我們對價格的穩定感到鼓舞，有吸引力的承受能力水平確實加速了鉀肥市場需求的回歸，這在 2023 年無疑是積極的。

I think just to bridge to 2024, we've got to talk about 2023 a little bit. And I think the story on 2023 versus where we were in August on our Q2 call is really about 3 markets. So first of all, in North America, we've seen continued very strong engagement in North America. Our fall fill program was very, very strong. We've seen continued interest from retail customers and growers for product going to ground, and things are moving well in Q4. And obviously, that whole backdrop has contributed to our Midwest reference price moving from a fill value at $370 to 2 increases since then and the most recent reference price in the Midwest achieved at that $420 per short tonne level. So North America certainly has been a positive story in 2023.

我認為為了過渡到 2024 年，我們必須稍微談談 2023 年。我認為 2023 年的情況與 8 月第二季電話會議的情況相比，實際上涉及 3 個市場。首先，在北美，我們看到北美地區的持續強勁參與。我們的秋季補缺計劃非常非常強大。我們看到零售客戶和種植者對產品落地的持續興趣，第四季度進展順利。顯然，整個背景促使我們的中西部參考價格從 370 美元的填充值上漲到 2 倍，而中西部最近的參考價格達到了每短噸 420 美元的水平。因此，北美在 2023 年無疑是一個積極的故事。

The 2 markets internationally that have really contributed to that demand growth in 2023 versus prior expectations are Brazil and China. And overall, in Brazil, we've continued to see very good engagement on fertilizers. And despite the fact that growers are still a little more hand to mouth in that market, we're seeing consumption levels back at 2021 levels, which is a positive indicator. And trade in recent weeks has been relatively thin there, which is normal. But if we look at inventory levels in Brazil, they're similar to a year ago, but significant imports are required over the next 2 months to meet demand for safrinha. And if that doesn't materialize, inventories will be very, very tight. So we expect a positive transition on the demand side in Brazil heading into 2024.

與先前的預期相比，真正對 2023 年需求成長做出貢獻的兩個國際市場是巴西和中國。總體而言，在巴西，我們繼續看到肥料方面的良好參與。儘管該市場的種植者仍能勉強糊口，但我們看到消費水平回到了 2021 年的水平，這是一個積極的指標。最近幾週那裡的貿易相對清淡，這是正常的。但如果我們看一下巴西的庫存水平，就會發現與一年前相似，但未來兩個月需要大量進口才能滿足對 safrinha 的需求。如果這沒有實現，庫存將非常非常緊張。因此，我們預期 2024 年巴西的需求面將出現正向轉變。

Coming to your question on China because that's also part of the 2023 story. Really in China, I think 2023's big increase in shipments is primarily due to 2 factors. The first is that apparent consumption in China just generally is very strong across all the nutrients. We're looking at consumption levels that appear to be demonstrating growth of about 5% across the board. And domestic production in China is down, in our expectation, somewhere between 750,000 and 1 million tonnes this year. So that's all led to inventories actually in September that had been drawn down to levels just below 2.5 million tonnes. Now, we do expect that by the time we get to the end of the year, some of the shipments will have gone to rebuilding inventories to some extent. But as we look to 2024, as you would see in our materials, we do project a bit of a step back in China next year.

回答你關於中國的問題，因為這也是 2023 年故事的一部分。實際上在中國，我認為2023年出貨量的大幅成長主要是因為兩個因素。首先，中國所有營養素的表觀消費量整體上非常強勁。我們正在研究的消費水準似乎顯示出全面成長約 5%。我們預計今年中國國內產量將下降 75 萬噸至 100 萬噸。因此，這一切都導致 9 月的庫存實際上已降至略低於 250 萬噸的水平。現在，我們確實預計，到年底時，部分出貨量將在一定程度上用於重建庫存。但當我們展望 2024 年時，正如您在我們的材料中看到的那樣，我們確實預計明年在中國會出現一些後退。

So other markets are really driving that growth in 2024. Those markets that we've called out, Ben, in 2024 really are Southeast Asia, India, Europe and continued growth in Latin America. So to your question on Southeast Asia, in 2023, shipments were down in Southeast Asia quite substantially. And we've seen conditions improve. Inventories have been drawn down in Southeast Asia. We've seen from Canpotex indications of good interest returning in Q4. We've seen interest already in Q1. Palm oil prices and rice prices and fundamentals, in particular, are very strong there. So we do expect a rebound in shipments. Of course, to your point, watching dryness in the region is a risk factor we'll have to watch. But given the depressed level of consumption in that market this year, we do expect a meaningful rebound there next year.

因此，其他市場確實會在 2024 年推動這一成長。Ben，我們所說的 2024 年市場實際上是東南亞、印度、歐洲和拉丁美洲的持續成長。關於你關於東南亞的問題，2023 年，東南亞的出貨量大幅下降。我們已經看到情況有所改善。東南亞的庫存已經減少。我們從 Canpotex 看到第四季度出現了良好的興趣回歸跡象。我們已經看到人們對第一季感興趣。棕櫚油價格和大米價格以及基本面尤其非常強勁。因此，我們確實預計出貨量會反彈。當然，就您的觀點而言，該地區的乾旱是我們必須關注的一個風險因素。但鑑於今年該市場的消費水準低迷，我們確實預期明年該市場將出現有意義的反彈。

You also asked about India in your question. We expect growth in India next year. While Indian inventories are improving as of recent months, they are still relatively tight. And even with the subsidy changes, I'd say those were about as expected for us. Importers are still making just over a 10% margin in that market, and shipments in 2023 were depressed by historical standards. So we do expect good things in 2024 in India. And Latin America obviously this year has been a positive surprise. We expect continued growth there, as I've outlined. And then in Europe, Europe's another market that has worked through its high-cost inventory, and in Q4, we've seen good engagement.

你在問題中也提到了印度。我們預計印度明年將出現成長。儘管近幾個月印度庫存有所改善，但仍相對緊張。即使補貼發生了變化，我想說這些也符合我們的預期。進口商在該市場的利潤率仍略高於 10%，而且以歷史標準，2023 年的出貨量有所下降。因此，我們確實預期 2024 年印度會發生好事。拉丁美洲今年顯然是一個正面的驚喜。正如我所概述的，我們預計該領域將持續成長。然後在歐洲，歐洲是另一個已經解決了高成本庫存問題的市場，在第四季度，我們看到了良好的參與。

So as Ken said, when we transition into 2024, we see demand stepping up at the midpoint by another 3 million tonnes next year, which will further support market fundamentals.

因此，正如 Ken 所說，當我們進入 2024 年時，我們預計明年的需求將再增加 300 萬噸，這將進一步支撐市場基本面。

Your next question comes from the line of Jacob Bout from CIBC.

您的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Jacob Bout。

Had a question on the nitrogen division. I think this is the first time that I've seen 3 outages in the same quarter. How much of this is coincidence, or maybe just talk through any maintenance or reliability issues? And then any comments on Trinidadian gas supply contracts and availability.

有一個關於氮部門的問題。我認為這是我第一次在同一季度看到 3 次中斷。其中有多少是巧合，或者可能只是討論任何維護或可靠性問題？然後是對特立尼達天然氣供應合約和可用性的任何評論。

For sure, Jacob. Thank you for the question. So yes, we had outages at our Geismar, Borger and Trinidad sites. And varying reasons there, including some of those that you mentioned. Yes, we are also in the middle of a contract negotiation with the National Gas Company in Trinidad. I'll hand it over to Trevor Williams, our President of the Nitrogen Business, to talk about those pieces.

當然，雅各。感謝你的提問。所以，是的，我們的蓋斯馬爾、博格人和特立尼達站點出現了停電。那裡的原因各不相同，包括您提到的一些原因。是的，我們也正在與特立尼達國家天然氣公司進行合約談判。我將把它交給我們的氮氣業務總裁特雷弗威廉斯（Trevor Williams）來討論這些內容。

So a couple of comments. So year-to-date, actually, the majority of our assets have actually run quite well, averaging about 97% capacity utilization, excluding our planned turnarounds. However, as folks have referenced, we did experience some issues at 3 of our facilities, primarily Trinidad, Borger and Geismar.

所以有幾點評論。事實上，今年迄今為止，我們的大部分資產實際上運作得很好，平均產能利用率約為 97%，不包括我們計劃的周轉時間。然而，正如人們所提到的，我們的 3 個設施確實遇到了一些問題，主要是特立尼達、博格和蓋斯馬。

Now, at our Geismar facility, typically, historically a top quartile performer. We just undertook on and completed our 5-year major overhaul here in Q3. However, during the outage and coming out of it, we did experience some issues with some large rotating equipment as a result of some quality challenges, which did force us to come back down a couple of times to address those. Thankfully, those repairs have been completed, and now the site is back up and running well and at the new capacity, debottleneck capacities.

現在，我們的 Geismar 工廠在歷史上一直是表現最佳的四分之一。我們剛剛在第三季進行並完成了為期 5 年的大修。然而，在停電期間和停電結束後，由於一些品質挑戰，我們確實遇到了一些大型旋轉設備的問題，這確實迫使我們多次返回來解決這些問題。值得慶幸的是，這些修復工作已經完成，現在該網站已恢復運行，並以新的容量、消除瓶頸的能力運作良好。

In Trinidad, this really comes down to a story around some of the challenges around some of the gas curtailments. We did experience several, I'll say, deeper curtailments through the year that forced us to take some plants offline. As a result of cycling those plants, we did experience some equipment failures that required us to come down to make some repairs. Those repairs are underway, and we expect the site to return to normal levels of operation here in November. And as Ken alluded, we are working with the natural -- the National Gas Company to develop more effective ways here going forward to manage some of these curtailments such that we don't compromise the Trinidad facility here going forward. And in addition, with some of the recent announcements related to longer-term gas supply, we're optimistic of returning back to full capacity over the course of the next couple years. And we will be taking steps to prepare the site in terms of being able to take maximum advantage of that opportunity.

在特立尼達，這實際上可以歸結為圍繞一些天然氣削減所面臨的一些挑戰的故事。我想說，這一年我們確實經歷了幾次更嚴重的限電，迫使我們關閉了一些工廠。由於循環這些工廠，我們確實遇到了一些設備故障，需要我們下來進行一些維修。這些修復工作正在進行中，我們預計該站點將在 11 月恢復正常運作水準。正如肯所提到的，我們正在與國家天然氣公司合作，開發更有效的方法來管理其中一些削減，這樣我們就不會損害特立尼達設施的未來。此外，根據最近發布的一些與長期天然氣供應相關的公告，我們對未來幾年恢復滿載產能持樂觀態度。我們將採取措施準備該網站，以便能夠最大限度地利用這一機會。

And then finally, from a Borger perspective, we did have several reliability equipment-related issues that were scheduled actually to be addressed in our 2025 turnaround. However, in order to reestablish the reliability of that facility and safe operation, we did elect to take an outage here in Q4 of this year to address a number of those operational risks and really set the site up here for a successful run going into the next major turnaround.

最後，從博格的角度來看，我們確實有幾個與可靠性設備相關的問題，這些問題實際上計劃在 2025 年的周轉中解決。然而，為了重建該設施的可靠性和安全運行，我們確實選擇在今年第四季度在這裡進行停電，以解決一些營運風險，並真正在這裡設置站點，以便成功運行進入下一個重大轉變。

And then finally, just a couple of things in terms of overall reliability program I just wanted to highlight. The first thing, obviously, is really prioritizing our capital to focus on increased uptime and efficiency, obviously managing the risks associated with our facilities. Really doing a lot of work in terms of enhancing our reliability program, using data analytics, people skill development and some organizational structural changes within the organization of the company. And then finally, which is really a big step forward to us, is around external monitoring, troubleshooting and optimization through our recently commissioned operations, a remote operations center in Loveland, Colorado.

最後，我想強調一下整體可靠性計劃的幾件事。顯然，第一件事是真正優先考慮我們的資本，重點是增加正常運作時間和效率，顯然是管理與我們的設施相關的風險。在增強我們的可靠性計劃、使用數據分析、人員技能發展以及公司組織內的一些組織結構變革方面，我們確實做了很多工作。最後，這對我們來說確實是向前邁出的一大步，是透過我們最近委託營運（位於科羅拉多州拉夫蘭的遠端營運中心）進行外部監控、故障排除和最佳化。

And finally, we just put together over the course of the last couple of quarters an infield reliability task team that's really been put in place to drive operational improvement through targeted reliability initiatives across the organization. So if that gives you a good picture in terms of the reliability front, and thanks for that. In terms of Trinidad gas contract, yes, we're in the final stages of finalizing the contract with the National Gas Company, and we expect to be announcing something here in the short term.

最後，我們在過去幾個季度中組建了一個內場可靠性任務團隊，該團隊真正到位，旨在透過整個組織內有針對性的可靠性計劃來推動營運改善。因此，如果這能讓您對可靠性方面有一個很好的了解，謝謝。就特立尼達天然氣合約而言，是的，我們正處於與國家天然氣公司敲定合約的最後階段，我們預計短期內將在此宣布一些消息。

Your next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Joel Jackson。

Usually when potash corporate in Nutrien, you see global shipments rise so much since you hold the excess tonnes, usually you've gained disproportionately share. This year, obviously, I guess the Belarusians picked up as they've gone up to 80%, 85% of capacity utilization, sorry. So now you're modeling a very bullish outlook next year with 3 million tonnes of further potash demand next year. How much of that 3 million tonnes do you -- in your model are you assuming Nutrien should be able to benefit? How much more do you think Belarus has to go? So yes, how much of the 3 next year should be assumed in your base projections that Nutrien should get?

通常，當 Nutrien 的鉀肥公司成立時，您會看到全球出貨量成長如此之多，因為您持有多餘的噸數，通常您會獲得不成比例的份額。今年，顯然，我猜白俄羅斯人有所回升，因為他們的產能利用率已經上升到 80%、85%，抱歉。因此，現在您對明年的前景進行了非常樂觀的建模，明年鉀肥需求將進一步增加 300 萬噸。在您的模型中，您認為 Nutrien 應該能夠受益於這 300 萬噸中的多少？您認為白俄羅斯還需要走多少路？那麼，是的，在您的基本預測中，明年應該假設 Nutrien 應該獲得 3 個中的多少？

Joel, yes, thank you for the question. So yes, obviously when we say 65 million to 67 million tonnes, so that's up from last year. And as Nutrien, as I mentioned earlier, we continue to maintain our market share. So we have been deploying our tonnes into the market. There have been a few challenges this year, as I'm sure you know, with the logistics side of our business. And we talk about Canpotex and the strikes that we saw in the West Coast, which certainly challenged our volumes, and we did have a volume impact there. Those shipments have returned to normal, but we're still dealing -- Canpotex is still dealing with an outage at its Portland facility, which that work has been underway to get it back online, which we expect to happen by the end of the year. But there have been volume impacts associated with both of those outages.

喬爾，是的，謝謝你的提問。所以，是的，顯然當我們說 6500 萬噸至 6700 萬噸時，這比去年有所增加。正如我之前提到的那樣，Nutrien 將繼續保持我們的市場份額。因此，我們一直在將我們的噸位投入市場。我相信您知道，今年我們業務的物流方面遇到了一些挑戰。我們談論 Canpotex 和我們在西海岸看到的罷工，這無疑對我們的銷售提出了挑戰，而我們確實在那裡產生了銷售影響。這些發貨已恢復正常，但我們仍在處理 - Canpotex 仍在處理其波特蘭工廠的停電問題，該工廠正在進行恢復正常運作的工作，我們預計這將在今年年底前完成。但這兩次中斷都對流量造成了影響。

Yes, as we peer into 2024 and talk about 67 million to 71 million tonnes, and with what we believe will be some ongoing challenges with FSU exports -- and it's not to say that we don't plan for those exports to come back over time. But we expect that next year, there'll still be some of those challenges that, yes, Canadian potash and Nutrien potash will play a role, certainly, in filling some of that void.

是的，當我們展望 2024 年並談論 6700 萬噸至 7100 萬噸時，我們相信 FSU 出口將面臨一些持續的挑戰，但這並不是說我們不計劃恢復這些出口時間。但我們預計明年仍然會遇到一些挑戰，是的，加拿大鉀肥和 Nutrien 鉀肥肯定會在填補部分空白方面發揮作用。

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

I just kind of wanted to follow up on that in terms of your expectations for that normalization of Russian and Belarusian supply. And it seems like maybe they -- as we move through the course of this year, they were able to export a little bit more than you thought. And it seems -- I'm wondering if that's again going to be the case next year versus what you thought 3, 6, 9 months ago. And if that's true, what is it that's allowing them to get more product out faster than you previously anticipated?

我只是想跟進一下你們對俄羅斯和白俄羅斯供應正常化的期望。看起來，也許他們——隨著我們今年的進程，他們的出口量比你想像的要多一點。看來——我想知道明年是否會再次出現這種情況，而不是你 3、6、9 個月前的想法。如果這是真的，是什麼讓他們比您之前預期的更快生產更多產品？

Yes. Thanks, Vincent, for the for the question. Yes. What I'll say is, yes, certainly those volumes are at the top end of what we saw coming out of the region this year. I mean, there's of course a lot of uncertainty associated with this. And yes, we see volumes going into China via rail from Belarus, albeit at $280 a tonne, we think, to deliver to that part of the world. And we see, depending on the Chinese domestic price, we see those volumes coming up when it's affordable and coming back down again when it's not. And then there's the shipments off the coast of Russia. So a lot of moving parts, as I said, at the high end of the range. The reality, though, is there continue to be sanctions against the Belarusians. And the terrible conflict that carries on in Eastern Europe aside, those sanctions were in place prior to this conflict. So we think there will still be challenges. I'll hand it over to Jason Newton to maybe talk a little bit more about some of those details.

是的。謝謝文森特提出這個問題。是的。我要說的是，是的，這些銷量肯定是我們今年看到的該地區銷量的最高值。我的意思是，這當然存在著許多不確定性。是的，我們看到大量貨物從白俄羅斯通過鐵路進入中國，儘管我們認為運往世界該地區的價格為每噸 280 美元。我們看到，根據中國國內的價格，當價格可以負擔時，銷量會上升，而當價格無法負擔時，銷量會再次下降。然後是俄羅斯沿海的貨物。正如我所說，在高端範圍內有很多活動部件。但現實是，針對白俄羅斯人的製裁仍在繼續。除了東歐正在發生的可怕衝突之外，這些制裁是在這場衝突之前就已經實施的。所以我們認為仍然會有挑戰。我會將其交給 Jason Newton，以便他可以更多地討論其中的一些細節。

Okay. Thanks, Ken. Vincent, yes, if we look at the exports coming out of Russia and Belarus, what's been the majority of the increase that we've made quarter-over-quarter for 2023 has been from Russia. And what we've seen there is particularly Eurokali has been operating at a higher operating rate than we would have expected and shipping more out through St. Petersburg. Now if we look forward to 2024, as mentioned, we'd expect that volumes will continue to increase from Russia. But actually, there's less potential growth there to get back to pre-war levels than was the case before. And so incrementally, we'd expect somewhere in the range of 1 million tonnes additional supply.

好的。謝謝，肯。 Vincent，是的，如果我們看看俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的出口，就會發現 2023 年環比增長的大部分來自俄羅斯。我們所看到的情況是，Eurokali 的運作速度比我們預期的要高，並且透過聖彼得堡運送的貨物更多。現在，如果我們展望 2024 年，正如前面提到的，我們預計俄羅斯的產量將繼續增加。但實際上，恢復到戰前水準的潛在成長幅度比以前還要小。因此，我們預計增量供應量將在 100 萬噸左右。

As Ken also mentioned, Belarus continues to be constrained. And actually, if we look back at the monthly shipments that we've seen over that region, really since the end of Q1, it's been relatively steady volumes. And as the Chinese contract was signed, we've really seen a prioritization of shipping the lowest cost logistical routes, which are through St. Petersburg and Branca and less through the other Russian ports, which really limits the upside on logistically, we believe, in the volumes that can get to port.

正如肯還提到的，白俄羅斯繼續受到限制。實際上，如果我們回顧該地區的月度出貨量，實際上自第一季末以來，銷量一直相對穩定。隨著中國合約的簽署，我們確實看到了優先運輸成本最低的物流路線，這些路線經過聖彼得堡和布蘭卡，較少經過俄羅斯其他港口，這確實限制了物流的上行空間，我們相信，在可以到達港口的捲中。

Through the summer months, a little bit of higher volumes moving into China as the strong demand, as mentioned, that we've seen seasonally in China that supported prices and volumes in that market led to a little bit higher volumes moving into China. But again, that's a high cost to serve location. The rail distance just to get to the border is 10x what it would have been to get to Klaipeda Port. And to get to the port warehouses in China, it's a cost to serve in the high-200s on a per tonne basis. So it's a high cost region to get those volumes out. And so as we look forward to 2024, we don't expect significant increases in the Belarusian volumes that we've seen. Although as a whole with the region, we'll continue to watch and likely to continue to be variable from month-to-month depending on downtime that's taken and market conditions through the year.

在整個夏季，進入中國的數量有所增加，正如前面提到的，我們在中國看到的季節性需求強勁，支撐了該市場的價格和數量，導致進入中國的數量增加。但同樣，提供位置服務的成本很高。前往邊境的鐵路距離是前往克萊佩達港的 10 倍。而到中國的港口倉庫，每噸的服務成本在200多美元。因此，這是一個生產這些產品的成本很高的地區。因此，當我們展望 2024 年時，我們預計白俄羅斯的產量不會出現我們所看到的大幅成長。儘管作為一個整體，我們將繼續關注該地區，並可能繼續根據全年的停機時間和市場狀況而變化。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Hansen from Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的史蒂夫漢森 (Steve Hansen)。

Your ability to move record volumes in the face of the logistics constraints you outlined is impressive. Perhaps at the risk of being too granular, can you maybe give us the latest update on when precisely you expect the Canpotex terminal to be back up and running? I just want to understand the potential risk for not being able to serve the demand you're speaking to. And just as a related question, how do you feel about the relative price spreads we're starting to see between North America and Asia? You've described a pretty robust demand environment there. Do you expect to see some normalization of those spreads over time?

面對您所概述的物流限制，您的運輸量創紀錄的能力令人印象深刻。也許冒著過於細化的風險，您能否向我們提供最新的更新信息，說明您預計 Canpotex 終端何時恢復並運行？我只是想了解無法滿足您所說的需求的潛在風險。正如一個相關問題，您對我們開始看到的北美和亞洲之間的相對價差有何看法？您在那裡描述了一個非常強勁的需求環境。您預計這些利差隨著時間的推移會趨於正常化嗎？

Yes. Great. Thank you, Steve. So with respect to the logistics piece, yes, our supply chain and Canpotex's supply chain, in light of some of the logistics challenges that we've described, but also low river levels along the Mississippi, it's made barge movement very difficult. We've seen challenges with rain in the Panama Canal and obviously bottlenecks there. But given the investments that Canpotex has made both on the West Coast but of course on the East Coast as well, and then with our vast network throughout North America, we have been able to meet the needs of our customers. And I think it just demonstrates the resilience of our network and all backed by, obviously, our 6 mines as well. So yes, we have been able to, like I say, meet the needs of our customers.

是的。偉大的。謝謝你，史蒂夫。因此，就物流而言，是的，我們的供應鏈和 Canpotex 的供應鏈，鑑於我們所描述的一些物流挑戰，而且密西西比河沿岸的河流水位較低，這使得駁船運輸非常困難。我們已經看到巴拿馬運河面臨降雨帶來的挑戰，並且明顯出現了瓶頸。但考慮到 Canpotex 在西海岸和東海岸的投資，以及我們遍布北美的龐大網絡，我們已經能夠滿足客戶的需求。我認為這只是展示了我們網路的彈性，顯然也有我們的 6 個礦場的支持。所以，是的，就像我說的，我們已經能夠滿足客戶的需求。

With respect to the Portland outage, as I said, Vancouver, the terminal at Vancouver, our Neptune -- Canpotex's Neptune Terminal's back at normal operating rates. And we expect Portland to be back up by the end of this year. So that peering into 2024, we expect to see full export capacity through the Canpotex terminals.

關於波特蘭的停運，正如我所說，溫哥華的碼頭、我們的海王星——Canpotex 的海王星碼頭已恢復正常運作。我們預計波特蘭將在今年年底前恢復。因此，展望 2024 年，我們預計 Canpotex 碼頭將實現全部出口能力。

Can we talk about the spreads between North America and Asia? I mean, of course, these are granular markets versus standard grade markets. And there is a distinction there where we've seen this very strong demand in North America as we've certainly heading into the fall application season, and that is our largest granular market. And as we said earlier, we're expecting a strong fall. With respect to the standard-grade markets, we've talked about those in terms of Chinese consumption. We talked about Southeast Asia what we expect to see there. Could we see a narrowing of those spreads? We could in 2024. But I think it's really a distinction between grades.

我們可以談談北美和亞洲之間的價差嗎？當然，我的意思是，這些是細粒度市場，而不是標準等級市場。那裡有一個區別，我們在北美看到了非常強勁的需求，因為我們肯定會進入秋季申請季節，而那是我們最大的顆粒市場。正如我們之前所說，我們預計會出現大幅下跌。關於標準級市場，我們已經從中國消費的角度討論了這些市場。我們談論了東南亞我們期望在那裡看到什麼。我們能看到這些利差縮小嗎？我們可以在 2024 年實現。但我認為這確實是年級之間的差異。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

Was hoping to maybe dig in a little bit more on the retail side. And I know you gave some color on crop protection kind of vertical in the prepared remarks. But can you just talk about where the channel inventories at least in your retail system are in North America, Australia, Brazil, kind of looking through the end of the year? How you've seen grower behavior change, if at all, this year? Would seem, based on some of the suppliers, that it's not just the distribution chain that's been slow to purchase products. And if you think there you're getting to a normalization point looking into next year, that'd be helpful.

希望能在零售方面多挖一點。我知道您在準備好的發言中對作物保護垂直領域進行了一些闡述。但你能談談至少在你的零售系統中北美、澳洲、巴西的通路庫存在哪裡嗎？您認為今年種植者的行為有何改變（如果有的話）？根據一些供應商的說法，似乎不僅僅是分銷鏈採購產品速度緩慢。如果您認為明年將達到正常化點，那會很有幫助。

Great. Thank you, Adam, for the question. Yes, crop protection inventories we've been drawing down in North America. Although we'll continue to be quite selective there, I would say, opportunistic. A little different in Brazil where we're still working through some higher cost inventory. But I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi to walk through all of that.

偉大的。謝謝亞當提出的問題。是的，我們一直在北美減少作物保護庫存。儘管我們將繼續在這方面非常有選擇性，但我想說的是，機會主義。巴西的情況略有不同，我們仍在處理一些成本較高的庫存。但我會將其交給 Jeff Tarsi 來完成所有這些工作。

Yes. Good morning, Adam. And as Ken just said, we came into the year, worked diligently to get our crop protection inventory down. I think we've done a good job year-to-date on that. We've drawn our inventory down in our retail business about $200 million below where we were this time last year, sitting in a real good spot in the U.S. market. As Ken and Pedro mentioned in their commentary, Brazilian market's a bit more difficult, more product in the channel there. We think by the end of the year in our retail business, we would have worked through the majority of that crop protection inventory in the Brazilian market. We look from the supplier side of things. As Ken said, we'll be very selective and opportunistic on our purchases in the fourth quarter. And I do think he used the word normalizing. I do think that the purchases supply/demand has normalized over the last 12 months. And growers don't -- they're not as keen to purchase ahead of time right now because they're not as worried about supply and the inventory from that standpoint. At the same time, we've seen our margins on crop protection normalize very nicely from the first quarter as well.

是的。早安，亞當。正如肯剛才所說，我們進入這一年，努力降低我們的作物保護庫存。我認為今年迄今為止我們在這方面做得很好。我們已經將零售業務的庫存減少了約 2 億美元，比去年同期的水平低了約 2 億美元，在美國市場上處於一個非常好的位置。正如肯和佩德羅在評論中提到的那樣，巴西市場有點困難，那裡的通路產品更多。我們認為，到今年年底，我們的零售業務將耗盡巴西市場上大部分的農作物保護庫存。我們從供應商的角度來看。正如肯所說，我們將在第四季度的採購中非常有選擇性和機會主義。我確實認為他使用了“正常化”這個詞。我確實認為過去 12 個月的採購供需已經正常化。而種植者則不然——他們現在並不那麼熱衷於提前購買，因為從這個角度來看，他們並不那麼擔心供應和庫存。同時，我們的作物保護利潤率從第一季開始也很好地正常化。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

Ken, I'd like to tap into your brain from your old Canpotex days with respect to the current pricing in potash. And if you were to think back a few years and see a scenario where tonnage out of FSU could be down, say, 5 million tonnes for the coming year -- you got a little bit coming out of loss -- but you clearly have a supply shock. You've got favorable fundamentals in the world. Would you expect Canpotex to be sold out for the rest of this year and spot pricing in some key markets to be -- what looks to be fairly modestly above levels from 2 years ago before the supply disruption. Is that logical to you?

肯，我想請教一下您在 Canpotex 時代的經歷，了解當前鉀肥的定價。如果你回想幾年，看到未來一年 FSU 的噸位可能會下降，比如說 500 萬噸——你會從損失中得到一些——但你顯然有一個供給衝擊。你在世界上擁有有利的基本面。您是否預計 Canpotex 將在今年剩餘時間內售空，並且一些主要市場的現貨價格將略高於兩年前供應中斷之前的水平。這對你來說符合邏輯嗎？

Yes. Good morning Steve and thank you for the question. So what I would say is the dynamic and the volatility since this conflict in Eastern Europe started and all of the supply side events that followed have just created a situation where we saw the big inventory movements at the start of this conflict where there was concerns about supply and those rushing into the market. Brazil's a great example of that building inventory and all of the impacts on price that followed, which from a grower affordability point of view, while the fundamentals in agriculture were and continue to remain very strong, from an affordability perspective, prices just reached to a level where affordability was compressed. And of course, we saw that buyer strike as a result. And we saw that buyer strike in North America. We saw it in Brazil. And we saw that continue until those inventories have been drawn down. And we've been watching those inventories come down from market to market. And as those inventories coming down, of course, no one stepping in until we're able to sort of see an inflection point. And so that's -- I believe we can characterize the last 18 months along those lines.

是的。早安，史蒂夫，謝謝你的提問。因此，我想說的是，自東歐衝突開始以來，動態和波動性以及隨後發生的所有供應方事件剛剛造成了一種情況，我們在這場衝突開始時看到了巨大的庫存變動，人們擔心供應和湧入市場的人。巴西是一個很好的例子，說明了庫存的增加以及隨之而來的對價格的所有影響，從種植者的承受能力的角度來看，雖然農業的基本面仍然非常強勁，但從承受能力的角度來看，價格剛剛達到了承受能力被壓縮的水平。當然，我們也看到了買家罷工的結果。我們看到北美買家罷工。我們在巴西看到了。我們看到這種情況一直持續到庫存減少為止。我們一直在觀察這些庫存在各個市場的下降。當然，隨著庫存的下降，在我們能夠看到轉折點之前，沒有人會介入。因此，我相信我們可以按照這些想法來描述過去 18 個月的情況。

And then where is that inflection point, or what does stability look like? And I think I would say, Steve, from a Canpotex perspective, peering now into 2024, and as we talked about, very strong consumption in China this year. And as we talked about Southeast Asia stepping out of the market, and really now with CPO prices, rice prices being where they're at, an expectation that they're going to be stepping back into the market with Europe having cleared higher priced inventories with India, actually, I think we believe suffering yield losses because of lack of crop nutrition and stepping back into the market.

那麼拐點在哪裡，或是穩定性是什麼樣的呢？我想我會說，史蒂夫，從 Canpotex 的角度來看，現在展望 2024 年，正如我們所說，今年中國的消費非常強勁。當我們談到東南亞退出市場時，實際上，隨著原棕油價格的上漲，大米價格處於目前的水平，預計隨著歐洲清理出更高價格的庫存，他們將重返市場實際上，對於印度，我認為我們認為由於缺乏作物營養而遭受產量損失並重新進入市場。

We're constructive on 2024. And while, yes, Canpotex has placed volumes and committed through the end of the year as markets have been stabilizing, and us continuing to run our 6-mine network of low cost production, this is where we are. But yes, we're peering into 2024, and we're expecting even more normalization across those markets. So yes, it's been an interesting and volatile 18 months, but here we are and constructive on 2024.

我們對2024 年持建設性看法。雖然，是的，隨著市場趨於穩定，Canpotex 已在年底前投入了大量資金，並且我們將繼續運營我們的6 個礦山的低成本生產網絡，但這就是我們現在的處境。但是，是的，我們展望 2024 年，預計這些市場將更加正常化。所以，是的，這是有趣且不穩定的 18 個月，但我們現在已經到了，並且對 2024 年充滿建設性。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Tupholme from TD Securities.

您的下一個問題來自道明證券 (TD Securities) 的 Michael Tupholme。

Within the nitrogen business, the brownfield projects that were completed in Q3, can you talk about how much incremental annual production volume those contribute to Nutrien? What you're expecting to add in terms of volumes in 2024 from any additional projects and perhaps the settlement of the gas contract in Trinidad. And then kind of bigger picture. Any commentary you can provide on how you're thinking about year-over-year nitrogen volume growth in 2024 versus 2023, both for the overall market and then specifically for Nutrien?

在氮肥業務方面，第三季完成的棕地項目，您能談談這些項目為 Nutrien 帶來了多少增量年產量嗎？您預計 2024 年任何其他項目以及可能是特立尼達天然氣合約的結算所增加的產量。然後是更大的圖景。對於整個市場和 Nutrien 2024 年與 2023 年氮肥產量同比增長的看法，您有何評論？

Yes. Thank you, Mike. And yes, we certainly expect increased volumes in 2024, getting above 11 million tonnes. But I'll hand it over to Trevor Williams to talk about some of those details.

是的。謝謝你，麥克。是的，我們當然預期 2024 年產量會增加，達到 1,100 萬噸以上。但我會將其交給 Trevor Williams 來討論其中的一些細節。

All right. Thanks, Mike. A couple of thoughts here. So with the debottlenecks that we did this year, we'll add about -- in the range of about 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes this year, mostly in UAN. A little bit on the ammonia side. But again, most of this geared from the work that we did at Geismar earlier in the year. Going into next year, we do have a couple of small debottlenecks as well. It's on the smaller volume of 40,000, 50,000 tonnes that will be completed, mostly on the ammonia side in the Alberta system. But if you think about where our glidepath is, this year, we provided our guidance in the range. Next year, we think we'll be in that kind of a little bit above the 11 -- or 11 million tonnes. And as we look forward to 2025, 2026, getting back to that midcycle expectation of being 11.5 million to 12 million tonnes on a run rate going forward. Mark, maybe over to you just in terms of some of the comments in terms of the market.

好的。謝謝，麥克。這裡有一些想法。因此，隨著我們今年所做的去瓶頸工作，今年我們將增加約 15 萬至 20 萬噸的產量，其中大部分是 UAN。氨方面有一點。但同樣，大部分內容都來自我們今年早些時候在 Geismar 所做的工作。進入明年，我們確實還有一些小瓶頸。即將完成的產量較小，為 40,000 至 50,000 噸，主要用於艾伯塔省系統的氨側。但如果你想想我們的下滑路徑在哪裡，今年我們提供了該範圍內的指導。明年，我們認為我們的產量將略高於 11 噸，即 1100 萬噸。當我們展望 2025 年、2026 年時，將恢復到 1,150 萬噸至 1,200 萬噸的中期預期運行率。馬克，也許就輪到你談談市場方面的一些評論了。

Yes, sure. Thanks, Michael, for the question. Look, I think Trevor summed up the volume story really well. From a nitrogen standpoint overall, the market's quite constructive, generally. We've seen supply constraints certainly in urea and ammonia around the world playing a role the last several months, and that's led to a significant tightness in the market. I think much as Ken has described here this morning, just generally from an agriculture standpoint, in North America, things are quite positive from a nitrogen standpoint. I think as Jeff Tarsi would probably tell you, it's a little bit early to call acreage shifts for next year, but we do still expect healthy corn planting and strong agricultural nitrogen demand next year.

是的，當然。謝謝邁克爾提出這個問題。聽著，我認為特雷弗對這本書的故事總結得很好。從整體氮肥的角度來看，市場整體上相當有建設性。我們已經看到過去幾個月世界各地尿素和氨的供應限制確實發揮了作用，這導致了市場嚴重緊張。我認為正如肯今天早上在這裡所描述的那樣，一般來說，從農業的角度來看，在北美，從氮的角度來看，情況相當積極。我認為傑夫·塔西可能會告訴你，現在宣布明年的種植面積變化還為時過早，但我們仍然預計明年玉米種植將健康，農業氮需求強勁。

I think just to double click a little bit on where things are in the market. Certainly from an ammonia standpoint, on our Q2 call, we had articulated that we felt ammonia was fundamentally undervalued given the tightness in the market, and we've certainly seen things firm up here over the last several months, which really has been a supply-driven event. And so ultimately, we've seen ammonia now come back into balance from a value on an end basis with urea and UAN. We do expect good fall applications here across the nitrogen complex as we move through the rest of Q4. And I think the setup looks pretty good peering into Q1 next year.

我想只要雙擊一下市場上的東西就可以了。當然，從氨的角度來看，在我們第二季度的電話會議上，我們已經明確表示，鑑於市場緊張，我們認為氨從根本上被低估了，而且我們在過去幾個月裡確實看到了這裡的情況堅挺，這確實是一個供應驅動事件。因此最終，我們看到氨現在從尿素和尿素的最終值恢復到平衡。隨著我們進入第四季度的剩餘時間，我們確實預計氮複合物的秋季應用將會良好。我認為明年第一季的設定看起來相當不錯。

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Garchitorena from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的理查德·加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

So I just wanted to circle back to potash demand and sort of your expectations going forward. So with 2024 basically around 57 million to 71 million tonnes of demand, and then on the supply side, potentially at least 1 million to 3 million more tonnes of supply from Eastern Europe, I guess just wanted to know your thought process in terms of how you think about the expansion plans and when we should think about maybe you starting to move forward more quickly on the 14 million to 15 million tonne target for midcycle? And also just on the follow-up. Is the CapEx guidance for, say, $2 billion to $2.5 billion going forward include any spend for growth either in potash or nitrogen? Or is that essentially sustaining CapEx?

所以我只想回到鉀肥需求以及你們對未來的期望。因此，到 2024 年，需求基本上約為 5700 萬至 7100 萬噸，然後在供應方面，東歐的供應可能至少增加 100 萬至 300 萬噸，我想只是想知道您的思考過程您考慮擴張計劃嗎？我們什麼時候應該考慮您可能開始更快地實現中期週期1400 萬噸至1500 萬噸的目標？也只是後續行動。未來 20 億至 25 億美元的資本支出指引是否包括用於鉀肥或氮肥成長的任何支出？或者這本質上是維持資本支出？

No. Thanks for the questions, Rich. So yes, with respect to 2024 and our potash expansions, when we talk about the midcycle in our business, I mean, we would say that that's 14 million to 15 million tonnes of capacity that we have available to put into the market. And as it relates to 2024, yes, we expect demand to continue to grow. We expect it to continue to grow beyond 2024, of course. And as it grows, we're going to -- we'll maintain market share. We'll continue to meet the needs of our customers. And as our customers are calling for volumes, we'll get those volumes into the market. So we absolutely believe that we're on a growth trajectory here and that we'll be able to deploy our additional low-cost tonnes into the market.

不，謝謝你的提問，里奇。所以，是的，就 2024 年和我們的鉀肥擴張而言，當我們談論我們業務的中期時，我的意思是，我們會說我們可以投入市場的產能為 1400 萬至 1500 萬噸。是的，就 2024 年而言，我們預期需求將持續成長。當然，我們預計它將在 2024 年之後繼續成長。隨著它的成長，我們將保持市場份額。我們將繼續滿足客戶的需求。當我們的客戶需要大量產品時，我們會將這些產品推向市場。因此，我們絕對相信我們正處於成長軌道，並且我們將能夠將額外的低成本噸部署到市場上。

As we talk about the $2 billion to $2.5 billion on the CapEx side, absolutely, as we look at the investments that we're making in potash today, we feel comfortable with the volumes that we've had. Hence, we've talked about the pause in deploying capital toward increasing expansion at this moment. Of course, we can return to an expansion trajectory with low CapEx to go beyond the 14 million to 15 million tonnes as we watch the market evolve and as our customers are calling for those tonnes. But again, for today, we feel comfortable with the investments we've made. Where we are deploying capital in potash is the ongoing work associated with automation, associated with predictive maintenance and advanced process control. Of course, the automation work, in addition to having the big safety benefits, has productivity benefits. And we're in the process of realizing those benefits actually as we speak, as we deploy automated mining machines in our 5 underground mines. So certainly that part of that -- and the $500 million that we talk about in investing CapEx, growing our business, part of that is in the automation work that we're doing in our potash network.

當我們談論資本支出的 20 億至 25 億美元時，絕對，當我們審視今天在鉀肥方面的投資時，我們對我們擁有的數量感到滿意。因此，我們討論了目前暫停部署資本以擴大擴張的問題。當然，隨著我們觀察市場的發展以及我們的客戶對這些噸的需求，我們可以回到低資本支出的擴張軌道，以超越 1400 萬噸至 1500 萬噸。但今天，我們再次對我們所做的投資感到滿意。我們在鉀肥領域投入資金的地方是與自動化、預測性維護和先進製程控制相關的持續工作。當然，自動化工作除了具有巨大的安全優勢外，還具有生產力優勢。正如我們所說，我們正在實現這些好處，因為我們在 5 個地下礦井中部署了自動化採礦機。當然，這一部分——以及我們所說的投資資本支出、發展我們的業務的 5 億美元，其中一部分是我們在鉀肥網路中進行的自動化工作。

Your next question from the line of Joshua Spector from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的約書亞·斯佩克特 (Joshua Spector)。

This is Lucas Beaumont on for Josh. So just sticking with potash. The top, I mean, 6 million to 7 million tonnes of capacity there on the cost curve, it accelerates pretty rapidly in terms of the cash cost from sort of low 200s up to kind of 350s range. With the incremental capacity coming from the 2 phases of BHP, plus the rollback in as sort of Russia and Belarus through the end of the decade, I mean that's pretty much equivalent to kind of what would be 10 years of demand growth kind of historically. And that's not sort of counting any of the other smaller projects that may or may not sort of come online.

我是盧卡斯·博蒙特（Lucas Beaumont）為喬許（Josh）代言。所以只堅持使用鉀肥。我的意思是，成本曲線上的最高產能為 600 萬噸至 700 萬噸，現金成本從 200 多美元上升到 350 多美元。隨著必和必拓兩個階段的產能增量，加上俄羅斯和白俄羅斯在本世紀末的回滾，我的意思是，這幾乎相當於歷史上十年的需求成長。這也不包括任何其他可能上線或不上線的小型項目。

So do you think that top portion of supply is going to get pushed off the cost curve out there? And if that does, I mean, that would seem to imply that pricing support is really kind of back at 2016 to 2019 lows versus sort of what you guys are assuming sort of for your midcycle pricing, which is quite a bit higher than that. So if you could just kind of give us your thoughts there on the dynamics and how you see that evolving, that would be great.

那麼，您認為供應的最高部分會被推離成本曲線嗎？如果確實如此，我的意思是，這似乎意味著定價支援確實回到了 2016 年至 2019 年的低點，而不是你們所假設的中期定價，後者比這要高得多。因此，如果您能向我們提供您對動態的看法以及您如何看待這種演變，那就太好了。

Thank you, Lucas. And I think you described just a number of moving parts there that I would say have a lot of unknowns and risks associated with them. Again, we would -- a lot of conviction around the fact that we're in a market that just continues to grow, and we can continue to talk about the reasons that it's growing. But for disease resistance, drought resistance, yield, potash is going to continue to be used. And again, we've seen that those growth rates over the last few decades and looking forward, we just have a lot of conviction that that's going to continue to be true.

謝謝你，盧卡斯。我認為您只描述了一些活動部件，我想說它們有很多未知因素和風險。再說一次，我們堅信我們正處於一個持續成長的市場，我們可以繼續談論它成長的原因。但為了抗病、抗旱、提高產量，鉀肥仍將持續使用。再說一遍，我們已經看到了過去幾十年的成長率，展望未來，我們堅信這將繼續如此。

So taking that assumption and looking at the supply side, we do know that some of this FSU planned new plant production that was in the pipeline to come to the market is delayed. It is in fact delayed. And it's delayed probably measured not in months, but in years. And so as that new volume is pushed out, of course, that creates room in the market. Yes, there is an announcement of a Phase I and a Phase II at a new Saskatchewan mine. But I'll just say again, we are -- we've looked through our risk lens associated with bringing on those types of volumes in soft rock mining. And soft rock mining is a lot different than hard rock mining. I have done both. And those are challenging mines to bring onstream. There's always unknowns and there's always some surprises. So as we -- and we factored in a Phase II from BHP into our plans all along. But as we factor in these new volumes, we are applying our own lens, which would say that at the end of this decade, the start of the next decade, that you put it all together, and certainly, we believe there's room in the market for these tonnes. There's room in the market for our growth with our customers in the market, and we're not talking about knocking someone off the high end of the cost curve.

因此，根據這一假設並從供應方面來看，我們確實知道一些 FSU 計劃的新工廠生產計劃中的一些產品已被推遲進入市場。事實上是延遲了。而且它的延遲可能不是以月為單位，而是以年為單位。當然，隨著新銷售的推出，這會在市場上創造空間。是的，薩斯喀徹溫省的一個新礦已宣布將進行第一期和第二期建設。但我要再說一遍，我們已經仔細審視了與在軟岩開採中實現這些類型的產量相關的風險。軟岩開採與硬岩開採有很大不同。我都做了。這些礦山的投產都具有挑戰性。總有未知，總有驚喜。因此，我們一直將必和必拓的第二階段納入我們的計劃中。但當我們考慮這些新卷時，我們正在應用我們自己的鏡頭，也就是說，在這個十年結束時，下一個十年開始時，你把它們放在一起，當然，我們相信還有空間這些噸的市場。市場上有我們與客戶共同成長的空間，我們並不是談論將某人從成本曲線的高端中剔除。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Jeff Holzman. Please continue.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給傑夫霍爾茲曼。請繼續。

Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available if you have any follow-up questions. Have a good day.

感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，可以聯絡投資者關係團隊。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。