Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to Nutrien's 2025 third quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Holtzman, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A.

大家好，歡迎參加Nutrien 2025年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒各位，本次電話會議正在錄音。現在我將把電話會議交給投資者關係和財務規劃與分析高級副總裁傑夫·霍爾茨曼。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's third quarter 2025 earnings call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts.

謝謝接線生。早安，歡迎參加Nutrien 2025年第三季財報電話會議。在本次電話會議中，我們關於未來預期、計畫和前景的各種陳述都包含前瞻性資訊。在得出這些結論和預測時，我們採用了一些假設。

Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions is contained in our quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form.

因此，實際結果可能與我們前瞻性資訊中包含的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的更多信息，請參閱我們向股東提交的季度報告以及我們最新的年度報告、管理層討論與分析以及年度資訊表。

I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO; and Mark Thompson, our CFO, for opening comments.

現在我將把電話交給 Nutrien 的總裁兼執行長 Ken Seitz 和財務長 Mark Thompson，請他們作開場白。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today to review our results, strategic priorities and the outlook for our business. Through the first nine months of 2025, Nutrien delivered structural earnings growth through record upstream fertilizer sales volumes, improved reliability and higher retail earnings.

早安.感謝各位今天蒞臨，與我們共同回顧我們的業績、策略重點和業務前景。2025 年前九個月，Nutrien 透過創紀錄的上游化肥銷售量、更高的可靠性和更高的零售收益實現了結構性獲利成長。

We raised our 2025 potash sales volumes guidance range for the second time this year and maintained the midpoint of our retail adjusted EBITDA guidance, highlighting the stability of this business throughout 2025. At our June 2024 Investor Day, we communicated a set of strategic objectives and targets that we believe provide a pathway to increase our earnings and free cash flow.

今年我們第二次提高了 2025 年鉀肥銷售量預期範圍，並維持了零售調整後 EBITDA 預期的中點，這凸顯了該業務在 2025 年的穩定性。在 2024 年 6 月的投資者日上，我們公佈了一系列策略目標和指標，我們相信這些目標和指標將為提高我們的收益和自由現金流提供途徑。

Our results through the first nine months show significant progress towards achieving these goals. Starting with our upstream operating segments. We increased fertilizer sales volumes by approximately 750,000 tons compared to the same period last year. These results highlight the capabilities of our world-class operations, extensive distribution network and strong customer relationships that we have built over many decades.

前九個月的成果表明，我們在實現這些目標方面取得了顯著進展。首先從我們的上游營運部門說起。與去年同期相比，我們的化肥銷量增加了約75萬噸。這些成果凸顯了我們世界一流的營運能力、廣泛的分銷網絡以及我們幾十年來建立的牢固客戶關係。

In potash, we delivered record sales volumes in the first nine months. We increased the percentage of ore tons cut with automation to over 40%, maintaining our position as one of the lowest cost and most reliable global potash suppliers.

在鉀肥業務方面，我們在前九個月實現了創紀錄的銷售量。我們將自動化切割的礦石噸數比例提高到 40% 以上，維持了我們作為全球成本最低、最可靠的鉀肥供應商之一的地位。

Our Nitrogen operations achieved a 94% ammonia utilization rate through the first nine months, up 7 percentage points from the previous year. Our operating performance demonstrates the significant progress we are making on reliability initiatives across our Nitrogen business.

在前九個月中，我們的氮氣業務實現了 94% 的氨利用率，比前一年提高了 7 個百分點。我們的營運表現表明，我們在氮氣業務的可靠性舉措方面取得了顯著進展。

Within our Downstream Retail segment, we delivered 5% higher adjusted EBITDA in the first nine months by driving down expenses and growing our proprietary product gross margin. We remain focused on efficiently supplying our growers with the products and services they need to maximize returns.

在下游零售業務方面，我們透過降低成本和提高自有產品的毛利率，在前九個月實現了調整後 EBITDA 成長 5%。我們將繼續專注於有效率地為種植者提供所需的各種產品和服務，以實現收益最大化。

As previously communicated, we are on track to achieve our $200 million cost reduction target one year ahead of schedule. These efforts contributed to a 5% reduction in SG&A expenses through the first nine months of 2025.

正如先前所宣布的，我們預計提前一年實現削減 2 億美元成本的目標。這些努力使得 2025 年前九個月的銷售、一般及行政費用減少了 5%。

We lowered capital expenditures by 10% on a year-to-date basis through optimization efforts focused on sustaining safe and reliable operations, along with a highly targeted set of growth investments. Delivering on these structural growth drivers, reducing expenses and optimizing capital spend has supported our ability to further enhance return of cash to shareholders. We allocated $1.2 billion to dividends and share repurchases in the first nine months, representing a 42% increase from the prior year.

今年迄今為止，我們透過優化措施，專注於維持安全可靠的運營，並進行一系列有針對性的成長投資，將資本支出降低了 10%。透過實現這些結構性成長驅動因素、降低成本和優化資本支出，我們能夠進一步提高股東現金回報。前九個月，我們撥出 12 億美元用於股利和股票回購，比去年同期成長 42%。

To put this all together, Nutrien is demonstrating significant progress across all our strategic priorities, delivering higher earnings and cash flow while increasing shareholder returns. At our Investor Day, we also communicated a focused approach to simplify our portfolio and review non-core assets.

綜上所述，Nutrien 在所有策略重點方面都取得了顯著進展，在提高股東回報的同時，實現了更高的收益和現金流。在投資者日上，我們也傳達了簡化投資組合和審查非核心資產的重點方法。

To date, we have announced the completion or have agreements in place for the divestiture of several non-core assets, including our equity interest in Sinofert and Profertil as well as smaller assets in South America and Europe.

到目前為止，我們已經宣布完成或已達成協議剝離幾項非核心資產，包括我們在中化肥和普羅菲特的股權，以及在南美和歐洲的較小資產。

These divestitures are expected to generate approximately $900 million in gross proceeds. We intend to allocate the proceeds to initiatives consistent with our capital allocation priorities, including targeted growth investments, share repurchases and debt reduction.

預計這些資產剝離將產生約 9 億美元的總收益。我們計劃將所得款項用於符合我們資本配置優先事項的各項舉措，包括有針對性的成長投資、股票回購和債務削減。

We continue to assess assets on the merits of strategic fit, return and free cash flow contribution. As a result, we have initiated a review of strategic alternatives for our Phosphate business. This process will include evaluating alternatives ranging from reconfiguring operations, strategic partnerships or a potential sale.

我們將繼續根據策略契合度、回報和自由現金流貢獻等因素來評估資產。因此，我們已啟動對磷酸鹽業務策略方案的審查。該過程將包括評估各種方案，例如重新配置營運、建立策略合作夥伴關係或進行潛在出售。

We intend to solidify the optimal path forward for our Phosphate business in 2026. In October, we completed a controlled shutdown of our Trinidad Nitrogen operations due to uncertainty with respect to port access and a lack of reliable and economic gas supply.

我們計劃在 2026 年確定磷酸鹽業務的最佳發展路徑。10 月份，由於港口准入的不確定性以及缺乏可靠且經濟的天然氣供應，我們對特立尼達氮氣業務進行了受控停產。

Our Trinidad operations were projected to account for approximately 1% of our consolidated free cash flow in 2025, a contribution that has been under pressure for an extended period of time. We continue to engage with stakeholders and assess options to enhance the long-term financial performance of our Trinidad operations. Each of these portfolio actions are driven by a focus on enhancing the quality and consistency of our earnings, improving cash conversion and supporting growth in free cash flow per share over the long term.

預計到 2025 年，我們在特立尼達的業務將占我們合併自由現金流的約 1%，但這項貢獻長期以來一直面臨壓力。我們將繼續與利害關係人溝通，並評估各種方案，以提高我們在特立尼達的業務的長期財務表現。這些投資組合策略均以提高獲利品質和穩定性、改善現金轉換率以及支持每股自由現金流長期成長為目標。

Now turning to the market outlook. In North America, harvest is in the late stages of completion with the pace supportive of a normal fall fertilizer application season. In line with the stronger plant health season we experienced in the third quarter, we expect a record crop will support the need to replenish nutrients in the soil. Summer crop planting in Brazil started at a faster-than-average planting pace, which has supported crop input demand and increased potash purchases since the beginning of the fourth quarter.

現在來談談市場前景。在北美，收割工作已接近尾聲，目前的進度符合正常的秋季施肥季節的要求。鑑於第三季植物健康狀況良好，我們預計創紀錄的收成將有助於補充土壤中的養分。巴西夏季作物種植進度比平均水平快，這支撐了作物投入需求，並自第四季度初以來增加了鉀肥採購量。

In August, we increased our global potash shipment projection for 2025 to a record 73 million to 75 million tons. We expect demand will continue to grow at the historical trend level in 2026, with potash shipments forecast between 74 million and 77 million tons. This would mark the fourth consecutive year of demand growth, an indicator of the stability we are seeing in global potash markets.

8 月份，我們將 2025 年全球鉀肥出貨量預測值上調至創紀錄的 7,300 萬至 7,500 萬噸。我們預計 2026 年鉀肥需求將繼續以歷史趨勢水準成長，鉀肥出貨量預計在 7,400 萬至 7,700 萬噸之間。這將是鉀肥需求連續第四年成長，顯示全球鉀肥市場呈現穩定態勢。

Our positive outlook is formed by strong potash affordability, large soil nutrient removal from a record crop and low-channel inventories in most major markets. This is most evident in China, where reported port inventories are down by more than 1 million tons year-over-year. In addition, we anticipate limited new global capacity additions in 2026 with announced project delays and remain constructive on supply and demand fundamentals.

我們樂觀的前景得益於鉀肥價格實惠、創紀錄的作物帶走大量土壤養分以及大多數主要市場的渠道庫存較低。這點在中國最為明顯，據報道，中國港口庫存年減超過100萬噸。此外，由於已宣布的專案延期，我們預計 2026 年全球新增產能有限，且對供需基本面仍持樂觀態度。

Global nitrogen supply challenges are expected to support a tight supply and demand balance going into 2026. Ammonia markets are currently very tight due to plant outages and project delays, and we anticipate the emergence of seasonal demand to further tighten urea market fundamentals.

預計到 2026 年，全球氮肥供應將面臨挑戰，供需平衡將趨於緊張。由於工廠停產和工程延誤，氨市場目前非常緊張，我們預計季節性需求的出現將進一步收緊尿素市場的基本面。

I will now turn it over to Mark to review our results, full year guidance and capital allocation priorities in more detail.

現在我將把發言權交給馬克，讓他更詳細地回顧我們的業績、全年業績指引和資本配置重點。

Thanks, Ken. As Ken described, our third quarter and year-to-date results highlight strong execution on our strategic priorities and supportive market fundamentals. Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion in the third quarter, a 42% increase compared to the prior year.

謝謝你，肯。正如肯所描述的那樣，我們第三季和年初至今的業績凸顯了我們在戰略重點方面的強勁執行力以及有利的市場基本面。Nutrien 第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 14 億美元，比上年同期成長 42%。

In potash, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $733 million in the third quarter, which was higher than last year due to higher net selling prices. Potash prices remained affordable on a relative and absolute basis, which supported sales volumes near record levels for the quarter.

在鉀肥業務方面，我們第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 7.33 億美元，由於淨售價上漲，高於去年同期水準。鉀肥價格相對和絕對價格都保持在可負擔的範圍內，這支撐了該季度鉀肥銷量接近歷史最高水平。

Our year-to-date controllable cash cost of product manufactured was $57 per ton, which was slightly higher than the prior year due to lower planned potash production and increased turnaround costs. At these levels, we continue to track favorably against our goal of maintaining a controllable cash cost that is at or below $60 per ton.

今年迄今為止，我們可控制現金生產成本為每噸 57 美元，由於計劃鉀肥產量降低和周轉成本增加，略高於去年同期水準。按照目前的水平，我們繼續朝著將可控現金成本控制在每噸 60 美元或以下的目標穩步前進。

We raised our full year potash sales volume guidance to 14 million to 14.5 million tons, supported by strong offshore demand. Canpotex is now fully committed through year-end, and we anticipate a similar split between offshore and domestic sales volumes in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year.

受強勁的海外需求支撐，我們將全年鉀肥銷售量預期上調至 1,400 萬至 1,450 萬噸。Canpotex 目前已全面投入到年底的訂單中，我們預計第四季度海外和國內銷售額的比例將與去年同期類似。

In Nitrogen, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $556 million in the third quarter, an increase compared to last year due to higher net selling prices and higher sales volumes. We advanced planned turnaround activities at our Redwater and Borger Nitrogen facilities and achieved ammonia operating rates that were well above the same period last year.

在氮氣業務方面，我們第三季調整後的 EBITDA 為 5.56 億美元，與去年同期相比有所成長，這主要得益於更高的淨售價和更高的銷售量。我們推進了 Redwater 和 Borger Nitrogen 工廠的計劃檢修活動，並實現了遠高於去年同期水準的氨氣生產率。

Our Nitrogen sales volume guidance range of 10.7 million to 11 million tons reflects the assumption of no additional sales volumes from our Trinidad operations for the remainder of the year. Reduction in Trinidad volumes is expected to be partially offset by the continued strong performance of our North American Nitrogen operations.

我們預計今年剩餘時間內，特立尼達業務的氮氣銷售量不會增加，因此我們預計氮氣銷售量將達到 1,070 萬至 1,100 萬噸。預計特立尼達產量的減少將被北美氮氣業務的持續強勁表現部分抵消。

In Phosphate, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $122 million in the third quarter as higher net selling prices and sales volumes more than offset increased sulfur costs. Our phosphate operations achieved an 88% operating rate in the third quarter as reliability and turnaround activities completed in the first half led to a significant improvement in performance.

在磷酸鹽業務方面，第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.22 億美元，因為更高的淨售價和銷售量足以抵消增加的硫磺成本。由於上半年完成的可靠性提升和檢修活動，我們的磷酸鹽業務在第三季度實現了 88% 的開工率，業績得到了顯著改善。

Our Downstream Retail business delivered adjusted EBITDA of $230 million in the third quarter, up 52% from prior year. We saw strong crop input demand across the US corn belt, consistent with our previous expectations for a strong plant health season, providing Nutrien with the opportunity to efficiently serve growers in their efforts to maximize crop yield.

我們的下游零售業務第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.3 億美元，比上年同期成長 52%。我們看到美國玉米帶對作物投入品的需求強勁，這與我們先前對植物健康生長季的預期一致，為 Nutrien 提供了高效服務種植者的機會，幫助他們最大限度地提高作物產量。

Our full year retail adjusted EBITDA guidance was narrowed to $1.68 billion to $1.82 billion, reflecting the continued stability of this business and execution of our strategic growth initiatives in 2025. We expect North American crop nutrient volumes to be slightly higher in the fourth quarter and per ton margins similar to the prior year.

我們將全年零售調整後 EBITDA 預期範圍縮小至 16.8 億美元至 18.2 億美元，這反映了該業務的持續穩定性以及我們在 2025 年戰略成長計畫的執行情況。我們預計第四季度北美作物營養液銷售將略有成長，每噸利潤率與去年同期相似。

Our expense reduction initiatives and Brazil improvement plan continue to be in line with previous expectations, helping offset the gain on asset sales and other non-recurring income items realized in the fourth quarter of 2024.

我們的支出削減措施和巴西改進計畫繼續符合先前的預期，有助於抵銷 2024 年第四季實現的資產出售收益和其他非經常性收入項目。

Turning to capital allocation. Last year, on the third quarter call, we discussed our plans to optimize sources and uses of cash as we introduced a refreshed capital allocation framework. We've taken decisive actions to execute our plans and our priorities remain consistent.

接下來討論資本配置。在去年第三季財報電話會議上，我們討論了優化現金來源和用途的計劃，同時推出了新的資本配置框架。我們已採取果斷措施執行計劃，我們的工作重點始終如一。

From a uses of cash perspective, we're focused on sustaining our assets on a risk-informed basis and further evaluating opportunities to optimize spend as we complete our portfolio optimization initiatives. We're also investing in a narrow set of growth initiatives that have a strong fit with our strategy, attractive returns and a lower degree of execution risk.

從現金使用的角度來看，我們專注於在風險可控的基礎上維持資產，並在完成投資組合優化計畫的同時，進一步評估優化支出的機會。我們也在投資一系列成長計劃，這些計劃與我們的策略高度契合，具有吸引力的回報和較低的執行風險。

And we continue to build on our long track record of stable and growing dividends per share and are deploying capital towards ratable share buybacks that provide for more consistent returns of cash to shareholders. As an illustration, through the first nine months of 2025, we repurchased shares at a rate of approximately $45 million per month and anticipate a similar run rate on a full year basis.

我們將繼續維持每股穩定成長的股利記錄，並將資金投入到按比例回購股票中，從而為股東提供更穩定的現金回報。例如，在 2025 年的前九個月，我們每月回購股票約 4,500 萬美元，預計全年回購速度將與之類似。

As we enhance our structural cash generation capabilities and deploy proceeds from the announced divestitures, we also expect to meaningfully lower our net debt position by year-end and gain greater flexibility to allocate capital through the cycle. I'll now turn it back to Ken.

隨著我們增強結構性現金產生能力並利用已宣布的資產剝離所得資金，我們也預計到年底將大幅降低淨債務水平，並在經濟週期中獲得更大的資本配置靈活性。現在我把麥克風交還給肯恩。

Thanks, Mark. We have a constructive outlook for our business, which is supported by expectations for healthy crop input demand and growth in global potash shipments in 2026. We continue to progress our strategic initiatives and take actions to simplify our portfolio, enhancing earnings quality, improving cash conversion and supporting growth in free cash flow per share over the long term.

謝謝你，馬克。我們對公司業務前景持樂觀態度，預計 2026 年農作物投入需求將維持健康成長，全球鉀肥出貨量也將成長。我們將繼續推進策略性舉措，並採取措施簡化我們的投資組合，提高獲利質量，改善現金轉換率，並支持每股自由現金流的長期成長。

These features underpin Nutrien's competitive advantages and offer a compelling investment case for our shareholders. Finally, I would like to share an update on the advancement of our succession planning process. After an outstanding 30 year career at Nutrien, Jeff Tarsi will be stepping back from the leadership role of our Downstream Retail business at the end of 2025.

這些特點構成了 Nutrien 的競爭優勢，並為我們的股東提供了令人信服的投資理由。最後，我想和大家分享我們繼任計畫流程的最新進展。在 Nutrien 度過了輝煌的 30 年職業生涯後，Jeff Tarsi 將於 2025 年底卸任下游零售業務的領導職務。

I'm pleased to announce that Chris Reynolds has accepted the leadership position for our Downstream business beginning in 2026. Chris has been with the company for 22 years and has held senior leadership positions in our sales, potash and commercial functions.

我很高興地宣布，克里斯雷諾茲已接受任命，將於 2026 年開始擔任我們下游業務的領導職務。克里斯在公司工作了 22 年，曾擔任銷售、鉀肥和商業部門的高階領導職務。

He brings deep knowledge of our business and the markets we serve across our Downstream network. Jeff will remain with Nutrien in an advisory role to support the transition and execution of our Downstream strategic priorities. We would now be happy to take your questions.

他對我們的業務以及我們下游網路中服務的市場有著深刻的了解。Jeff 將繼續留在 Nutrien 擔任顧問，以支持我們下游策略重點的過渡和執行。現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）Andrew Wong，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So just regarding that Phosphate business today. How would you say cash generation for that business compares to the rest of your business? Are there certain parts of the Phosphate business that maybe are better cash generators than others?

嘿，早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。今天就談談磷酸鹽業務吧。您認為該業務的現金流量與您公司其他業務相比如何？磷酸鹽業務中是否存在某些比其他業務更能產生現金流的部分？

And then just regarding that strategic review, is there -- is this about the business maybe just being better suited to run a different way? Or is there something specific about the Phosphate assets or the Phosphate outlook that's prompting the review? Thank you.

那麼，關於那次策略評估，是否意味著這家企業或許更適合以不同的方式運作？或者，磷酸鹽資產或磷酸鹽前景方面有什麼具體情況促使進行此次審查嗎？謝謝。

Yeah, thank you, Andrew. Yeah. At our June 2024 Investor Day, we talked about this focused approach to simplify our portfolio, with the focus really being on quality of earnings and free cash flow over the long term, and that's absolutely relevant to your question. It is true that we produce phosphate out of White Springs and Aurora. But at the same time, it's only contributing about 6% of our EBITDA.

謝謝你，安德魯。是的。在 2024 年 6 月的投資者日上，我們談到了這種簡化投資組合的專注方法，重點在於長期的收益品質和自由現金流，這與您的問題絕對相關。我們確實在懷特斯普林斯和奧羅拉生產磷酸鹽。但同時，它僅貢獻了我們約 6% 的 EBITDA。

So as we looked at it, it compels us to do a strategic review. And of course, this is on the heels of some of the portfolio of the work that we've been doing, disposing our Sinofert shares, the process that we're in to close Profertil by the end of the year and other non-core assets. And that's all adding up to about $900 million to date.

因此，經過一番審視，我們不得不進行一次戰略評估。當然，這與我們一直在進行的一些投資組合調整工作密切相關，例如出售我們的中化股份、在年底前完成對Profertil的收購以及其他非核心資產的出售。截至目前，所有這些加起來已經達到了約9億美元。

For our Phosphate business, and again, to your question, we're looking at a range of alternatives across our strategic review. And that could be everything, yes, from revised and reconfigured operations with the goal of maximizing and optimizing free cash flow and strategic partnerships that we'll be looking at and the sale as well. We'll be looking at all those alternatives, and we expect to have some conclusions about the path forward in 2026.

關於我們的磷酸鹽業務，再次回答您的問題，我們正在透過策略評估來研究一系列替代方案。是的，這可能包括所有方面，從旨在最大化和優化自由現金流的修訂和重新配置的運營，到我們將要考慮的戰略合作夥伴關係，以及出售事宜。我們將研究所有這些方案，並預計在 2026 年對未來的發展方向得出一些結論。

Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

本‧艾薩克森，加拿大豐業銀行。

Thank you very much and good morning. Mark, I have a question for you. You've worn the CFO hat for a little over a year now. I was hoping you could reflect on what initiatives you've undertaken or what's changed in your role?

非常感謝，早安。馬克，我有個問題想問你。你擔任財務長一職已經一年多了。我希望您能回顧一下您採取了哪些舉措，或是您的工作角色發生了哪些變化？

And then as part of that, last summer in '24, targets were set for 2026. And now as we're seven to eight weeks out from the start of '26, can you just give us a check-in on just some of the big targets that were set and how those are tracking? Thank you.

然後，作為其中的一部分，2024 年夏天，制定了 2026 年的目標。現在距離 2026 年開幕還有七到八週，您能否向我們報告之前設定的一些重要目標的進展？謝謝。

Hi Ben, good morning. Thanks for the question. So I'll maybe just start by reiterating some of the comments that Ken and I provided in our prepared remarks this morning. So as you noted, Ken and our team, we laid out a set of objectives and targets at the Investor Day in June 2024.

嗨，本，早安。謝謝你的提問。那麼，我先重申我和肯今天早上在準備好的演講稿中提出的一些觀點。正如您所指出的，肯恩和我們的團隊在 2024 年 6 月的投資者日上製定了一系列目標和指標。

And as we've said this morning, those were focused on levers to drive structural growth in earnings and free cash flow over time. If you look at the progress we've made on a year-to-date basis and our full year guidance, I think you can see we've made very significant progress on those initiatives.

正如我們今天早上所說，這些措施的重點在於推動獲利和自由現金流隨著時間的推移實現結構性成長。如果看一下我們今年迄今為止的進展以及我們全年的業績預期，我認為可以看出我們在這些舉措上取得了非常顯著的進展。

If you look at Upstream fertilizer sales volumes based on the midpoint of our guidance for 2025, we're on pace to deliver 1.4 million tons of volume growth compared to the baseline we set at Investor Day from 2023 results.

如果按照我們對 2025 年業績預測的中點來看上游化肥銷售量，我們預計將實現 140 萬噸的銷售成長，而我們在投資者日上根據 2023 年的業績設定的基準線則無法實現這一目標。

And obviously, this has come from a few different areas. There's been a focus on reliability, debottlenecking projects in Nitrogen and then utilizing our existing potash capacity. And all of those are, of course, very low capital intensity initiatives, and they've got strong cash margin contributions.

顯然，這源自於幾個不同的領域。我們一直專注於提高可靠性，消除氮肥生產中的瓶頸，並充分利用我們現有的鉀肥產能。當然，這些都是資本密集度非常低的項目，而且它們都能帶來強勁的現金利潤。

From a Downstream perspective, we set targets to grow earnings through a number of levers, including expanding proprietary products, our network optimization, expense management, margin improvement in Brazil and bolt-on acquisitions, primarily in North America.

從下游業務的角度來看，我們設定了透過多種手段來提高獲利的目標，包括擴大自有產品、優化網路、控製成本、提高巴西的利潤率以及進行補充收購（主要在北美）。

And if you look at our progress to date versus that 2023 baseline, we're projecting that there will be $300 million in retail EBITDA growth at the midpoint of our 2025 guide. And we're pleased with that, and we think that's something that can continue over time.

如果將我們迄今為止的進展與 2023 年的基準進行比較，我們預計到 2025 年指導目標的中點，零售 EBITDA 將成長 3 億美元。我們對此感到滿意，並認為這種情況可以持續下去。

In terms of cost discipline, as Ken mentioned, we set a $200 million cost reduction target for 2026. We're a year ahead of schedule on that. And of course, we're always looking for more. And also, as Ken mentioned, we've completed or have agreements in place to divest non-core assets as part of our portfolio review that will have generated once closed about $900 million over the last year.

在成本控制方面，正如肯所提到的，我們設定了在 2026 年削減 2 億美元成本的目標。我們在這方面比原計劃提前了一年。當然，我們始終都在尋求更多。此外，正如 Ken 所提到的，我們已經完成或正在製定協議，剝離非核心資產，作為我們投資組合審查的一部分，一旦完成，將在過去一年中產生約 9 億美元的收益。

And these are assets that didn't fit the strategy, weren't consistently generating cash flow for Nutrien. And so we're pleased with that as well. So all of these initiatives feed into that objective that Ken talked about in terms of increasing structural sources of cash flow.

這些資產不符合公司策略，也無法持續為 Nutrien 產生現金流。所以我們也對此感到滿意。因此，所有這些措施都是為了實現肯所說的增加結構性現金流來源的目標。

And then, of course, beyond this, as Ken has just mentioned, we've announced a strategic review of the Phosphate business, and we continue to assess our options at Trinidad. And all of that's in the spirit of increasing quality and resilience of free cash flow.

當然，除此之外，正如肯剛才提到的，我們已經宣布對磷酸鹽業務進行策略性審查，我們將繼續評估我們在特立尼達的選擇。這一切都是為了提高自由現金流的品質和韌性。

From a uses of cash perspective, we set a target at that Investor Day that you highlighted to reduce CapEx to $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion. And as you know, we've overachieved on that target through optimization efforts. Our guidance this year is $2 billion to $2.1 billion, and we're focused on maintaining discipline in this area moving forward.

從現金使用的角度來看，我們在您重點提及的投資者日上設定了一個目標，即減少資本支出至 22 億至 23 億美元。如您所知，我們透過優化努力，超額完成了該目標。我們今年的預期是 20 億至 21 億美元，我們將繼續專注於維持這一領域的穩健發展。

And then finally, one of the items you've heard us speak about over the past year quite a bit is to further enhance our cash returns to shareholders, primarily through more ratable share repurchases. Through the first nine months, we increased return of cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases by 42%, and we've ratably bought back shares at that pace I mentioned of around $45 million per month.

最後，在過去一年裡，你們經常聽到我們談論的一件事是，進一步提高股東的現金回報，主要透過更按比例回購股票來實現。在前九個月裡，我們透過分紅和股票回購將股東現金回報提高了 42%，我們一直按照我提到的每月約 4,500 萬美元的速度回購股票。

And Nutrien shareholders should continue to expect that ratable repurchases are going to be a part of a consistent staple in our capital allocation framework going forward. So as Ken said and I've said, we think we've made a lot of progress over the past year on our strategic priorities. We're continuing to take actions to enhance our competitive position, and we believe this will drive structural growth in free cash flow per share over the long term.

Nutrien 的股東應該繼續期待，按比例回購將成為我們未來資本配置框架中持續的重要組成部分。正如肯和我所說，我們認為過去一年我們在戰略重點方面取得了很大進展。我們將繼續採取措施來增強我們的競爭地位，我們相信這將推動每股自由現金流的長期結構性成長。

Hamir Patel, CIBC Capital Markets.

Hamir Patel，加拿大帝國商業銀行資本市場。

Hi, good morning. Ken, beyond the strategic alternatives review of Phosphate, whatever plays out in Trinidad and the divestitures you've already announced, do you see any other meaningful opportunities for non-core asset sales over the coming years?

您好，早安。肯，除了對磷酸鹽的戰略替代方案進行審查之外，無論特立尼達的情況如何發展以及你已經宣布的資產剝離計劃，你認為未來幾年內還有其他有意義的非核心資產出售機會嗎？

Yeah. Thanks, Hamir. No, that -- I think for the time being, we're really focusing on the things that we've talked about. And so we've talked about Phosphate, obviously, working very hard on the Trinidad file and assessing options as we go forward there and making sure that we carry on with our improvement plan in Brazil.

是的。謝謝你，哈米爾。不，我認為目前我們確實應該專注於我們已經討論過的事情。因此，我們已經討論了磷酸鹽問題，顯然，我們正在努力處理特立尼達問題，評估我們在那裡推進的各種方案，並確保我們在巴西繼續實施我們的改進計劃。

Those would be the three big areas of focus, I would say, going into and through 2026. And again, as Mark just described, expecting that as we progress through that work, really an improvement in quality of earnings and free cash flow.

我認為，這三大領域將是2026年及以後的重點領域。正如馬克剛才所描述的那樣，我們預計隨著這項工作的推進，獲利品質和自由現金流將得到真正的改善。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

Joel Jackson，BMO資本市場。

Hi everyone. Maybe a shorter-term question. Maybe talk about the fall season. You talked about maybe crop nutrient demand being up year-over-year in Q4. Maybe talk about for the fall season. Maybe talk about 85% expectations a few months ago.

大家好。或許應該問一個短期問題。或許可以聊聊秋季。您提到第四季作物養分需求可能較去年同期成長。或許可以談談秋季檔期。或許幾個月前我們還能談到 85% 的預期。

How is this fall playing out? It's been an early harvest, but there's a lot of uncertainty going on. One of your large competitors is talking about seeing Phosphate demand deferral, which may also lead to potash demand deferral. Can you comment on all that, please?

今年秋季的情況如何？雖然收穫來得早，但目前仍有許多不確定因素。您的一家大型競爭對手錶示，磷酸鹽需求可能會推遲，這也可能導致鉀肥需求推遲。能就以上內容發表一下看法嗎？

You bet, Joel, thanks for the question. Yeah, we haven't changed our -- the midpoint of our guidance in our Retail business, as you know. And we're staring into the fall, which the next two weeks will be kind of critical for that. As we've mentioned, we're on track in Brazil for this year.

當然可以，喬爾，謝謝你的提問。是的，正如您所知，我們沒有改變——我們零售業務的指導中點仍然保持不變。我們即將迎來秋季，接下來的兩週對秋季來說至關重要。正如我們之前提到的，我們今年在巴西的業務進展順利。

Here in North America, we're coming off a strong Q3, good plant health season for both crop protection and crop nutrition. Heading into the fall here, yeah, we expect that nitrogen volumes probably up. Potash volumes may be a bit flattish from last year and perhaps phosphate volumes a bit down. But it's a few days into November here, Jeff, I'll pass it over to you.

在北美，我們剛剛經歷了一個強勁的第三季度，作物保護和作物營養都取得了良好的植物健康成果。進入秋季後，我們預計氮氣產量可能會上升。鉀肥產量可能與去年持平，磷酸鹽產量或許會略有下降。傑夫，現在已經是十一月的第一天了，我把麥克風交給你了。

Yeah. Thanks, Ken. Yeah, so we -- as you would have seen in our results, our growers stayed very engaged through the third quarter. In our business, Ken mentioned very strong plant health sales in that quarter as growers were working to protect yields. And I mentioned that because we're just at the completion of harvest now and crop yields look very strong, especially across corn and soybeans.

是的。謝謝你，肯。是的，正如您從我們的業績中看到的那樣，我們的種植者在第三季度一直保持著非常高的參與度。在我們的業務中，肯提到當季植物保健品銷售非常強勁，因為種植者都在努力保護產量。我之所以提到這一點，是因為我們現在正處於收割的尾聲，作物產量看起來非常強勁，尤其是玉米和大豆。

Strong crop yields lead to what we need to replenish for going into the '26 crop. We're doing a lot of soil testing right now. Our largest two weeks of application are the week we're in right now and this following week. And to date, weather looks favorable. From that standpoint, we're seeing pretty robust action right now out in the field. A lot of anhydrous going down and then of course, our dries P&Ks as well.

豐收意味著我們需要補充資金，以備2026年作物種植之需。我們目前正在進行大量的土壤檢測工作。我們申請量最大的兩週就是現在的這週和接下來的這週。就目前來看，天氣狀況良好。從這個角度來看，我們目前在實地看到了相當強勁的行動。大量無水肥料下沉，當然還有我們的乾燥磷鉀肥。

But I'll remind people that growers footfall applications out in order to get ahead of the next year's crop. And corn looks strong again for '26. And so growers are going to want to get out ahead of that in the best way that they can.

但我要提醒大家，種植戶們會提前申請種植許可證，以便為來年的作物做好準備。玉米在2026年看起來依然強勁。因此，種植者們都希望盡可能提前做好準備。

And as Ken said, I think in our projections at the midpoint of our guidance, we just got slightly elevated volumes compared to last year. And if you remember last year, we got -- we did get into some weather issues, especially as it related to anhydrous ammonia.

正如肯所說，我認為在我們預測的中間值中，銷售量與去年相比略有上升。如果你還記得去年的話，我們確實遇到了一些天氣問題，特別是與無水氨有關的問題。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

Great, thank you so much. Just real quick, when you take a step back on your Nitrogen strategy, could you just kind of go through how you're thinking about the intermediate term in terms of what facilities kind of can make up a little bit of that gap based on what cadence you were seeing out of the T&T assets in 2025?

太好了，非常感謝。簡單來說，當你回顧一下你的氮肥策略時，你能否簡要地談談你對中期發展的看法，以及根據你對 2025 年 T&T 資產發展節奏的預期，哪些設施可以彌補一些缺口？

And perhaps a quick comment on just how you're thinking about the longer-term strategy. I mean are you interested in assets? Would you ever consider a greenfield again? Perhaps that's still a question. But just an updated thought process would be very helpful. Thank you so much.

或許您也可以簡單談談您對長期策略的看法。我的意思是，你對資產有興趣嗎？你還會考慮再次開發一片新區域嗎？或許這仍然是個問題。但只要更新一下思路，就會很有幫助。太感謝了。

No, that's great. Thank you, Chris. I mean as you know, I think we've been working on reliability issues in nitrogen and challenges that we've had there and deploying meaningful sustaining CapEx and focusing on some of the bad actors in our portfolio and our fleet.

不，那太好了。謝謝你，克里斯。我的意思是，如你所知，我們一直在努力解決氮氣領域的可靠性問題和我們遇到的挑戰，並投入有意義的持續資本支出，重點關注我們投資組合和車隊中的一些不良參與者。

And those -- that's yielding results with the 94% operating rate that Mark mentioned earlier. We're also working on our ongoing debottlenecking and brownfield initiatives that are adding tons. When we talked about 11.5 million to 12 million tons at our June 2024 Investor Day, certainly part of those volumes were coming from those debottlenecking and brownfield initiatives.

而這些——正如馬克之前提到的，實現了 94% 的營運率，取得了成效。我們也持續推動消除瓶頸和改造棕地項目，這些項目正在增加大量產能。我們在 2024 年 6 月的投資者日上談到 1,150 萬至 1,200 萬噸的產量時，其中一部分產量肯定來自消除瓶頸和棕地改造計畫。

And we have more opportunity there as it relates to expanding our Nitrogen volumes. And we would look at those opportunities, which would be low CapEx, high-margin opportunities prior to certainly looking at something like a greenfield opportunity.

而且，我們在擴大氮氣產量方面還有更多機會。我們會優先考慮那些低資本支出、高利潤的機會，然後再考慮像新建案這樣的機會。

In the context of the broader portfolio, which, of course, includes Trinidad, I mean, as we speak, high operating rates in our fleet ex-Trinidad are helping to make up some of the difference with our Trinidad operations being, of course, shut down, as you know.

就整個投資組合而言（當然也包括特立尼達），我的意思是，正如您所知，目前我們特立尼達以外地區的船隊運營率很高，這有助於彌補我們在特立尼達的業務停擺造成的損失。

In Trinidad itself, we are looking at our various alternatives, assessing options because we do need line of sight to stable and economic gas supply and, of course, access to port. So we're working -- talking to the Trinidad government about what those sort of optimal operating conditions might be. And again, as I say, assessing our path forward.

在特立尼達，我們正在研究各種替代方案，評估各種選擇，因為我們確實需要穩定且經濟的天然氣供應管道，當然，還需要港口的使用權。所以我們正在與特立尼達政府探討最佳營運條件可能是什麼。正如我所說，再次評估我們前進的方向。

Stepping back from it all, our Investor Day targets, 11.5 million to 12 million tons next year, that did include us achieving our full complement -- the 12 million tons, our full complement of natural gas supply in Trinidad.

退一步講，我們投資者日的目標是明年達到 1,150 萬至 1,200 萬噸，其中包括我們實現全部產能——1,200 萬噸，即我們在特立尼達的天然氣供應全部產能。

The 11.5 million tons, the math there would say that you sort of get the 80% of our gas complement in Trinidad to get to that 11.5 million tons, depending on the outcomes in Trinidad now, we'll see as our operating rates come up in the balance of our fleet, and we chart our path forward on the island there in Trinidad.

根據計算，1,150萬噸的目標產量需要我們在特立尼達島的天然氣供應量達到80%。具體產量取決於特立尼達島目前的狀況，我們將根據我們剩餘船隊的運作率以及我們在特立尼達島的未來發展方向來決定。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Thank you. Good morning. Could you speak a little bit about the Latin American, maybe more specifically the Brazilian environment, just both as we exit this year and into next year, I see you're projecting another year of growth there for potash shipments.

謝謝。早安.您能否談談拉丁美洲，特別是巴西的情況？就今年和明年而言，我看到您預測那裡的鉀肥出貨量將再增加一年。

But maybe you could just sort of talk to the credit conditions and the incremental financing terms in terms of how fast you're able to get paid down there still? And what gives you the confidence that, that market can grow again in '26 off of very high levels despite the challenging farmer economics and limited credit that's available?

但或許你可以和信貸部門談談，了解一下你那邊還能以多快的速度還清貸款？是什麼讓您有信心，儘管農民經濟形勢嚴峻，信貸有限，但該市場在 2026 年仍能在高位基礎上再次增長？

Yeah, for the question. So yes, I think the most important point for us is that our -- we're on track with our improvement plan in Brazil. And that's included the things that we've talked about, the shattering of our -- idling of our five blenders. We've talked about unproductive locations and having closed 54 of them now, workforce reduction, 700 people.

是的，回答這個問題。所以，是的，我認為對我們來說最重要的一點是——我們在巴西的改進計劃正在按計劃進行。這其中就包括我們討論過的事情，像是我們五台攪拌機的故障和閒置。我們已經討論過生產效率低下的地點，目前已經關閉了其中 54 個地點，裁減了員工，共 700 人。

But to the question, also allocating resources with a real focus on credit and credit collection. And that is, again, largely playing out as we had assumed here in 2025 and hence, part of the story of being on track with our improvement plan.

但回到這個問題，也要真正重視信貸和信貸催收，合理分配資源。而這在很大程度上也正如我們在 2025 年所預期的那樣，因此，這是我們改進計劃按計劃進行的一部分。

As it relates to growth in agriculture in Brazil, we have seen, once again, a 2% increase in Brazil from last year. Last year, 47 million tons of fertilizer went in land on to Brazilian farms, and that's up again 2% this year.

就巴西農業成長而言，我們再次看到巴西的農業成長率比去年增加了 2%。去年，巴西農場施用了 4,700 萬噸化肥，今年又增加了 2%。

And it's the case that looking at corn and soybean prices, Brazilian farmers continue to do the things that they need to do to maximize yield and appropriate application rates are part of that story. So we've been here before, but year-over-year, the Brazilian farmer with expanded acreage and a focus on yield continues to import more volumes.

從玉米和大豆的價格來看，巴西農民仍在繼續採取必要的措施來最大限度地提高產量，而適當的施肥量是其中的一部分。我們以前也遇到過這種情況，但年復一年，巴西農民擴大了耕地面積，更加重視產量，因此繼續進口更多的農產品。

And of course, we, as Nutrien and Canpotex have been the biggest part of that story, now the largest supplier of potash into Brazil. The last thing I'll say is we continue to focus on our proprietary products, also experiencing growth on Brazilian farms, and that will continue to be a focus of ours as well.

當然，我們 Nutrien 和 Canpotex 也一直是這故事中最重要的一部分，現在我們是巴西最大的鉀肥供應商。最後我想說的是，我們將繼續專注於我們的專有產品，我們在巴西農場的業務也正在成長，這也將繼續是我們的工作重點。

Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

史蒂夫漢森，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Yes, good morning guys, thanks for the time. If I'm thinking back in time when you've actually divested a phosphate asset, I think you've really tried to retain much of the strategic value through some longer-term offtake, at least in the initial term. In the context of the current review, really what is the optimal outcome for you?

是的，各位早安，感謝你們抽出時間。如果我回想一下你過去剝離磷酸鹽資產的時候，我認為你確實努力透過一些長期承購協議來保留大部分策略價值，至少在初期是如此。就本次審查而言，對您來說，最佳結果究竟是什麼？

It sounds like all options are on the table, but have you thought about trying to maintain access to the supply as it relates to your integration benefits? You're just looking for someone to cut you a check. How do we think about the optimal outcome here for you as you go through this review process? Thanks.

聽起來所有方案都在考慮範圍內，但您是否考慮過在整合過程中保持供應管道暢通？你只是想找個人開支票給你。在您進行此評估過程中，我們如何看待對您而言的最佳結果？謝謝。

Yeah, no, thanks, Steve. And actually, it's really everything, all of the above. So we will look at a range of alternatives as it relates to, as I mentioned earlier, reconfigured operations, partnership sale and could that include some form of contractual arrangement. I suppose that's possible. But I can tell you what we will be solving for is free cash flow.

不，謝謝，史蒂夫。實際上，它包含了以上所有的一切。因此，我們將研究一系列替代方案，正如我之前提到的，包括重整營運、合夥出售，以及是否可能包括某種形式的合約安排。我想這有可能。但我可以告訴你，我們要解決的問題是自由現金流。

And yeah, we could probably achieve that in a number of ways. It's early days for us and we just announced their strategic review. The time is good for that. Obviously, what's happening in the Phosphate market, the focus on mineral that's as important as they come in the US and of course, the focus on -- in the US on domestic security of supply for something as critical as Phosphate.

是的，我們或許可以透過多種方式實現這一點。對我們來說，現在還處於起步階段，我們剛剛宣布了他們的策略評估。現在正是好時機。顯然，磷酸鹽市場正在發生的事情，讓人們關注到這種在美國極其重要的礦產，當然，也讓人們關注到——在美國，磷酸鹽這種關鍵物質的國內供應安全問題。

So the time is right for us to announce this. And now that we've announced it, we can talk freely about these strategic options and do the full review assessment. Again, we expect to have line of sight to that in 2026. So we'll have more to talk about.

所以現在正是我們宣布此事的合適時機。既然我們已經宣布了這一點，我們就可以自由地討論這些戰略選擇，並進行全面的審查評估。我們預計到 2026 年就能看到這一幕。這樣我們就有更多的話題可以聊了。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for the question. A couple of things on the Retail business. First, anything that maybe shifted from 2Q to 3Q? I know we had some weather issues. So anything that maybe went a little bit better than expected once we account for that timing shift?

您好，早安。謝謝你的提問。關於零售業，有幾點需要說明。首先，第二季到第三季之間有變化嗎？我知道我們遇到了一些天氣問題。考慮到時間上的偏差，有沒有什麼事情進展比預期的要好一些？

And then separately, I wanted to ask about your proprietary products, the growth opportunity there, particularly now that one of your large customers is going through a bit of a restructuring themselves, if that offers an opportunity for you or if there's any real change with that large customer in the retail business? Thank you.

另外，我還想單獨詢問貴公司的專有產品，以及這方面的成長機會，特別是現在貴公司的一位大客戶正在進行一些重組，這是否給貴公司帶來了機會，或者說，這位零售業大客戶是否真的發生了任何變化？謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Kristen. I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk about, as you say, any questions, any shifts between quarters, I think the answer there is not really. And then certainly, on proprietary product growth, I think I know the challenge that you're pointing to, but the growth that we're experiencing would certainly be independent of that. But Jeff, over to you.

是的。謝謝你的提問，克里斯汀。我會把發言權交給傑夫，讓他來談談，正如你所說，任何問題，季度之間的任何變化，我認為答案並非如此。當然，關於自有產品的成長，我想我明白您所指出的挑戰，但我們正在經歷的成長肯定與此無關。傑夫，該你了。

Yeah, Kristen, as far as any kind of shift from Q2 to Q3, no, everything is pretty much going as we've expected this year, especially as it relates to when we capture revenue and margin from that standpoint. You've always got some give and takes in there, but there would be nothing material from that standpoint.

是的，克里斯汀，至於從第二季到第三季的任何變化，沒有，今年一切都基本上按照我們的預期進行，尤其是在我們何時獲得收入和利潤方面。其中總是會有一些妥協和讓步，但從這個角度來看，不會有任何實質的影響。

On the proprietary side of our business, proprietary products continues to be a very strategic growth driver for our business. We just finished a very strong third quarter as it relates to proprietary products. In the third quarter here, we had significant increase in margins on our nutritionals and biologicals, which again is very impressive.

就我們業務的專有產品方面而言，專有產品仍然是我們業務成長的重要策略驅動力。我們剛結束了一個非常強勁的第三季度，尤其是在自有產品方面。第三季度，我們的營養品和生物製品利潤率大幅成長，這再次令人印象深刻。

And we also had an uplift to margins in our crop protection side of our business as well in the quarter. And if I look at our portfolio of proprietary products today, I think we're sitting in a good place. I think we basically have what we need from that standpoint.

本季度，我們作物保護業務的利潤率也有所提升。如果我看一下我們目前的專有產品組合，我認為我們處於一個不錯的地位。我認為從這個角度來看，我們基本上已經具備了所需的條件。

We've got a very strong seed play as it relates to proprietary products, Dyna-Gro and Proven varieties. We've got a very strong play on our crop protection side of the business, and we continue to talk about our nutritional and biologicals.

我們在種子業務方面實力雄厚，擁有自主研發產品 Dyna-Gro 和 Proven 品種。我們在作物保護業務方面實力雄厚，我們一直在談論我們的營養和生物製劑。

And I think as we go into 2026, you're going to see us introduce over 30 new products globally in our business. About half of those are going to be crop protection products. We're going to introduce seven new nutritional products and several seed treatment products. So again, that's going to continue to be a strategic growth driver for our business, very critical to the growth that we talked about, especially as we reach out into '26.

我認為，到 2026 年，我們將在全球推出 30 多款新產品。其中約一半將是農作物保護產品。我們將推出七款新的營養產品和幾款種子處理產品。所以，這將繼續成為我們業務的策略成長驅動力，對我們所說的成長至關重要，尤其是在我們展望 2026 年的時候。

Matt Dale, Bank of America.

馬特·戴爾，美國銀行。

Yes, thank you. This is Salvator Tiano in for Matt. So I want to go back to the Phosphate strategic review. And specifically, there was one of the options, not the sale of -- or partnership, but the reconfiguration of the business.

是的，謝謝。這位是薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾，他代替馬特上場。所以我想回到磷酸鹽戰略評估上來。具體來說，其中一個選擇不是出售或合夥，而是對業務進行重組。

And can you clarify a little bit what does this mean? Would you, for example, try to make products more for the feed or the food market or even try to do something like purified acid for LFP batteries? And also, can you remind us what are your ore reserves in Phosphate?

您能稍微解釋一下這是什麼意思嗎？例如，您是否會嘗試生產更多以飼料或食品市場為導向的產品，甚至嘗試生產用於磷酸鐵鋰電池的純化酸？另外，能否告知我們貴公司磷酸鹽礦的儲量是多少？

Yeah, no, thanks for the question. And so reconfigured operations, I think, means probably everything that you just described. And again, we're looking at that at the moment. We have, as I think you probably know, we have improved reliability rates at our Phosphate business. We have reduced costs, and we have diversified our product mix.

嗯，不用了，謝謝你的提問。因此，我認為，重新配置的操作可能意味著你剛才描述的一切。我們目前正在研究這個問題。正如您可能知道的那樣，我們的磷酸鹽業務的可靠性已經提高。我們降低了成本，並實現了產品組合多元化。

We've done all those things. At the same time, Phosphate still only contributes, as I mentioned earlier, 6% of our EBITDA. So when we use the words reconfigured operations, it is exactly, as you say, looking at life of mine at both White Springs, Aurora, assessing how we best exploit the remaining reserves.

我們已經做了所有這些事情。同時，正如我之前提到的，磷酸鹽業務仍然只占我們 EBITDA 的 6%。所以，當我們使用「重新配置營運」這個詞時，正如你所說，就是審視懷特斯普林斯和奧羅拉兩處礦區的礦場壽命，評估我們如何才能最好地開發剩餘儲量。

There's also additional reserves in the area. So we're looking at all those things. And again, we'll have more to talk about on the path forward as we conduct the review.

該地區還有其他保護區。所以我們正在考慮所有這些因素。此外，在進行審查的過程中，我們也會就未來的發展方向進行更多討論。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

Thanks very much. You've stressed share repurchase as a use of capital for you. I think over a 10 year period, the average price of Nutrien is $57. And if it turned out that five years from now, the price of Nutrien was still $57, would it be a mistake to repurchase shares or not?

非常感謝。您曾強調股票回購是您運用資本的一種方式。我認為，在過去 10 年裡，Nutrien 的平均價格是 57 美元。如果五年後 Nutrien 的股價仍然是 57 美元，那麼現在回購股票是明智之舉還是不明智之舉呢？

Yeah, thanks for the question, Jeff. And yeah, I would say that our strategy now as it relates to return of cash to shareholders, of course, we use the word stable and growing dividend and ratable share repurchases. As we look at the word ratable, we'll always assess whether in the moment, at the time, based on our outlook, based on our assessment of value, whether that makes sense. So it's not with the blinders on at all times, just charging forward, we do think about value as we deploy our share buyback programs.

是的，謝謝你的提問，傑夫。是的，就目前我們向股東返還現金的策略而言，我們當然會使用「穩定成長的股息」和「按比例回購股票」這樣的字眼。當我們審視「可評級」這個詞時，我們總是會根據我們當時的視角和價值評估來判斷，這樣做是否合理。所以，我們並非一直蒙著眼睛一味向前衝，在實施股票回購計畫時，我們確實會考慮價值。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho Securities.

艾德蘭‧羅德里格斯，瑞穗證券。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I mean, so Ken, so when you look at all the puts and takes in the different nutrients right now, like what's your sense of like near-term pricing movement? I mean which one do you think is better positioned to see an uptick in pricing or do prices need to take a breather from where they are now?

謝謝。各位早安。我的意思是，肯，當你觀察目前各種營養素的買賣情況時，你覺得近期價格走勢會如何？我的意思是，你認為哪一種更有可能出現價格上漲，還是價格需要從目前的水平回調？

Yeah, thanks for the question, Edlain. It's just going back to the fundamentals and understanding in potash, when we say 74 million to 77 million tons and looking at how we're going to supply as an industry, how we're going to supply into that range. I mean at the midpoint, that's about 1.5 million ton increase from 2025.

是的，謝謝你的提問，艾德蘭。這只是回歸鉀肥的基本原理和理解，當我們說鉀肥產量在 7400 萬到 7700 萬噸之間時，就要考慮我們作為一個行業將如何供應，我們將如何滿足這個範圍的需求。我的意思是，以中點計算，到 2025 年將比 2025 年增加約 150 萬噸。

And that would include probably some supply additions from FSU, maybe 0.5 million tons from Canada, 0.5 million tons -- and then Laos. And of course, we know Laos -- adding 0.5 million tons out of Laos would be a real challenge, I think, given some of the existing challenges in that part of the world.

這其中可能包括來自前蘇聯的一些新增供應，來自加拿大的 50 萬噸，以及來自寮國的 50 萬噸。當然，我們都知道寮國的情況——考慮到該地區目前面臨的一些挑戰，我認為從寮國增加 50 萬噸碳排放將是一個真正的挑戰。

So you look at the level of crop nutrients that have been pulled out of the soil in 2025, you look at the affordability of potash today, and importantly, you look at channel inventories in potash and really being at average or at below average levels, I mean, China is a great example of that, where port inventories are down 1 million tons from last year. And so we're constructive on potash heading into 2026, and it's for all of those reasons.

所以，你要看看 2025 年土壤中作物養分的流失量，看看如今鉀肥的價格，更重要的是，看看鉀肥的渠道庫存，看看它們是否真的處於平均水平或低於平均水平。我的意思是，中國就是一個很好的例子，其港口庫存比去年減少了 100 萬噸。因此，我們對2026年的鉀肥市場持建設性態度，原因就在於此。

Similar story in ammonia and urea, I mean, export restrictions in China on urea having been eased. But just through the summer here, we saw strong demand out of India and now heading into the fall here, seasonal demand, which we expect and probably as we speak, are seeing some firming in urea pricing. And then on ammonia, I mean, on the supply side of the equation, there's all kinds of challenges there and even our own Trinidad operations, which are shut down this year.

氨和尿素的情況也類似，我的意思是，中國已經放寬了對尿素的出口限制。但就今年夏天而言，我們看到印度的需求強勁，現在進入秋季，季節性需求預計（而且可能就在我們說話的此刻）尿素價格會有所走強。至於氨，我的意思是，在供應方面，存在各種各樣的挑戰，甚至我們自己的特立尼達工廠今年也關閉了。

I would say phosphate probably will continue -- and again, looking at the supply and demand balance, it will probably continue to be tight. I know that potash -- sorry, phosphate prices are elevated compared to historical average levels.

我認為磷酸鹽的需求可能會繼續增長——而且，從供需平衡來看，供應可能仍將緊張。我知道鉀肥——抱歉，是磷酸鹽——的價格與歷史平均水平相比已經上漲。

But at the same time, it's a supply story. And while we might see some reduced phosphate volumes going down here in the fall, given where phosphate prices and therefore, affordability is at, we might see some of that. We expect that, like I say, into 2026, the market will continue to be tight.

但同時，這也是一個供應問題。雖然我們可能會看到秋季磷酸鹽用量減少，但考慮到磷酸鹽的價格以及人們的承受能力，我們可能會看到這種情況發生。正如我所說，我們預計到 2026 年，市場供應仍將保持緊張。

Michael Doumet, National Bank.

Michael Doumet，國家銀行。

Hey, good morning. So you've completed a few acquisitions, and you expect to have leverage come down in Q4. And then again, I think next year, another potential divestiture if that happens. Any way you can frame out how much debt you'd like to repay before you consider introducing maybe some additional flexibility into how you're thinking about capital allocation/your share repurchase program?

嘿，早安。你們已經完成了一些收購，預計第四季槓桿率會下降。然後，我認為如果明年這種情況發生，可能會再次進行資產剝離。在您考慮在資本配置/股票回購計劃中引入一些額外的靈活性之前，您能否先確定您希望償還多少債務？

Yeah, you bet, Ben, thanks for the question. And so yes, we will end the year having paid down -- reduced some debt. That's true even while we've increased returns -- cash returns to shareholders, as I mentioned earlier, by over 40% compared to last year.

當然，本，謝謝你的提問。所以，是的，到年底我們將償還一些債務。即便我們已經提高了回報——正如我之前提到的，股東的現金回報比去年增長了 40% 以上，情況依然如此。

And yes, heading into 2026, we'll see how the year plays out and some of the things that we've announced and how we're thinking about proceeds among our capital allocation priorities. But I'll hand it over to Mark maybe just to provide a bit more detail.

是的，展望 2026 年，我們將看看這一年的發展情況，以及我們已經宣布的一些事項，以及我們如何考慮資本配置優先事項中的收益分配。但我會把這件事交給馬克，讓他提供更多細節。

Sure, thanks, Ken. Good morning, Michael. So look, I think you step back and think about the priorities we've articulated, capital discipline, cost discipline, the overall focus on free cash flow and really being able to do that on a through-the-cycle basis, really regardless of market conditions.

好的，謝謝你，肯。早上好，麥可。所以，我認為你應該退後一步，想想我們已經闡明的優先事項：資本紀律、成本紀律、對自由現金流的總體關注，以及真正能夠在周期性變化中做到這一點，而不受市場狀況的影響。

So we've built the strategy, built the capital allocation and returns framework to really be consistent across cycles such that Nutrien will generate structural free cash flow at any commodity price that we can foresee and have consistent abilities to deploy that capital.

因此，我們制定了策略，建立了資本配置和回報框架，使其在各個週期中保持一致，從而使 Nutrien 能夠在我們可預見的任何商品價格下產生結構性自由現金流，並具備持續部署這些資本的能力。

So when you look at the actions we've taken to enable that, I think the track record is strong over the last year. Specifically on your question, part of being able to support that framework across the cycle is having debt in an appropriate position.

所以，回顧我們為實現這一目標所採取的行動，我認為過去一年來我們的成績斐然。具體來說，針對你的問題，要在整個週期中支撐這個框架，部分原因在於債務處於適當的水平。

We haven't changed our perspective that BBB flat from a rating standpoint is the right place for us. But as we look through a cycle, we think that at roughly mid-cycle prices, we should be roughly 1.5 times adjusted net debt to EBITDA.

我們依然認為，從評級角度來看，BBB 集團對我們來說是合適的選擇。但從週期的角度來看，我們認為，在周期中期價格水準上，調整後的淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率應該約為 1.5 倍。

And when we get into a trough, although we can go higher than this, we think 2.5 times is probably the trough that we'd like to see when we get to the bottom of the commodity cycle such that we have abundant optionality to take advantage of those moments, return capital to the shareholders and do all the things that we need to do.

當價格跌至谷底時，雖然價格可能會高於這個水平，但我們認為 2.5 倍可能是我們希望在商品週期觸底時看到的谷底，這樣我們就有充足的選擇餘地來利用這些時機，向股東返還資本，並做我們需要做的一切事情。

So what you've heard us articulate today is that with the benefit of divestiture proceeds and the strong cash flow from operations that we're going to see in 2025, we're going to take a step closer to that. And we think we'll be getting in the ballpark.

所以，你們今天聽到的就是，憑藉出售資產所得收益以及我們將在 2025 年看到的強勁的營運現金流，我們將朝著這個目標邁進一步。我們認為我們能接近目標。

Of course, as we move forward and Ken articulated, we're always going to be looking at the best use of deployment for the cash that we have that maximizes value for our shareholder. So we believe we're on the right track with that.

當然，正如肯所闡述的那樣，隨著我們不斷前進，我們將始終關注如何最好地利用我們現有的現金，從而最大限度地為我們的股東創造價值。所以我們相信我們在這方面走對了路。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

本·圖雷爾，巴克萊銀行。

Oh, yeah, good morning and thanks for taking my question. On some of the commentary you already made in regards to the Trinidad assets. Now I was wondering if within the asset review, aside from what you've talked about, Phosphate and then obviously, we have the Trinidad decision pending.

哦，對了，早上好，謝謝您回答我的問題。關於您之前就特立尼達資產發表的一些評論。現在我想知道，在資產審查中，除了您提到的磷酸鹽之外，顯然還有待決的特立尼達決定。

How you think about the rest of your portfolio? Are there any other assets that you would consider for divestiture or any sort of like an adjustment here given where the market conditions are in the different locations? Thank you.

您如何看待投資組合中的其他資產？鑑於不同地區的市場狀況，您是否會考慮剝離其他資產或進行任何形式的調整？謝謝。

No, thanks for the question, Ben. And it's the case and will be the case that we'll be perpetually reviewing our portfolio. And again, we're talking about our objectives of earnings quality and free cash flow per share and being able to structurally improve those metrics over the long term.

不，謝謝你的提問，本。事實是，而且將來也必將如此，我們將不斷地審查我們的投資組合。再次強調，我們的目標是提高獲利品質和每股自由現金流，並能夠在長期內從根本上改善這些指標。

As I mentioned earlier, at the moment, consuming our attention is phosphate, is Trinidad and is our work in Brazil. We -- among our divestiture program today, we've talked about our -- to date, we've talked about our Sinofert shares, talked about Profertil. There are a few other smaller assets that we've divested of in Europe and in Latin America.

正如我之前提到的，目前我們最關注的是磷酸鹽、特立尼達以及我們在巴西的工作。在我們今天的資產剝離計劃中，我們已經談到了我們——到目前為止，我們已經談到了我們的 Sinofert 股份，談到了 Profertil。我們在歐洲和拉丁美洲也剝離了一些其他規模較小的資產。

And would there be other smaller assets that we would look at sort of cleaning up in the portfolio? There would be. But there would be nothing that I would describe beyond those three areas of focus today that I would call material. And so again, today, the big things that we need to focus on and talk about are Phosphate, Trinidad and Brazil.

那麼，投資組合中是否還有其他規模較小的資產值得我們清理呢？會有的。但除了今天我關注的這三個領域之外，我不會再描述任何其他內容，我認為這些內容可以稱之為素材。所以，今天我們需要重點關注和討論的幾件事是磷酸鹽、特立尼達和巴西。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

盧卡斯·博蒙特，瑞銀集團。

Great, thanks. I just wanted to clarify a couple of things. So I guess just on Trinidad to start with, so to the extent that remains shut down into 2026, what's the sort of fixed cost base there on EBITDA that will be impacting you?

太好了，謝謝。我只是想澄清幾件事。所以我想先就特立尼達的情況來說，如果該地區繼續關閉到 2026 年，那麼 EBITDA 的固定成本基礎會對您產生怎樣的影響？

And then just secondly, I saw your potash shipment outlook for North America is flat year-on-year into next year. So are you guys assuming that you don't get any kind of demand destruction impact there at all? Thanks.

其次，我看到你們對北美鉀肥出貨量的預測是明年與去年持平。所以你們是認為那裡完全不會有任何需求萎縮的影響嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. No, on Trinidad, we'll see, Lucas. We're certainly not prognosticating that we're going to be shut down into 2026. We're just -- we're working through that at the moment and looking for those optimal operating conditions where, again, reliable and affordable gas supply and access to ports and in those discussions today. So those discussions will be ongoing.

是的。不，關於特立尼達的事，我們到時候再說吧，盧卡斯。我們當然沒有預測我們會一直停工到 2026 年。我們現在正在努力解決這個問題，並尋找最佳的營運條件，包括可靠且價格合理的天然氣供應以及港口准入，這些都是我們今天討論的內容。所以這些討論還會繼續進行。

Trinidad contributes less than 1% of our free cash flow. And so it is from that perspective, in terms of the overall contribution, it's de minimis. As it relates to potash volume growth, I think the best way to think about it is the potash market continues to grow. And we had talked about after some of the demand destruction that we saw, the conflict in Eastern Europe, the return to trend level of potash demand.

特立尼達貢獻的自由現金流不到我們總現金流的1%。因此從這個角度來看，就整體貢獻而言，這微不足道。就鉀肥產量成長而言，我認為最好的理解方式是鉀肥市場持續成長。我們之前討論過，在東歐衝突導致鉀肥需求下降之後，鉀肥需求將恢復到正常水準。

And indeed, that is exactly what we have been experiencing for the last few years. And given everything that we're seeing on crop nutrient removal from the soil on channel inventories and overall affordability for potash, we expect trend level demand to continue into 2026, and that's why we say 74 million and 77 million tons.

而事實上，這正是我們過去幾年所經歷的。鑑於我們從土壤中作物養分的去除、渠道庫存以及鉀肥的整體可負擔性等方面所看到的一切，我們預計這種趨勢水平的需求將持續到 2026 年，這就是為什麼我們說 7400 萬噸和 7700 萬噸。

And for our part, you can think about us participating in that demand growth in the way that we always have. And so sort of that 19% to 20% market share. And so as we look at how we're going to guide into 2026, it will be doing exactly that kind of math. And as you know, with our six mine network and our capability to continue to grow our volumes at a very competitive capital, we'll continue to pace along with growth in the market. Thank you.

至於我們，您可以認為我們以一貫的方式參與這種需求成長。因此，市佔率大概在 19% 到 20% 之間。因此，當我們展望2026年的發展方向時，我們將進行正是這種類型的計算。如您所知，憑藉我們六個礦山網路以及我們以極具競爭力的資本持續擴大產量的能力，我們將繼續與市場成長保持同步。謝謝。

Jordan Lee, Goldman Sachs.

Jordan Lee，高盛集團。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just another one on the Trinidad closure. You mentioned that it contributes a small amount of free cash flow. Can you discuss the different possibilities you see for that asset? Do you think there would be interest if you were to try to sell it? And is that something you are considering? Thank you.

您好，早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。關於特立尼達關閉計畫的另一則消息。您提到它能帶來少量自由現金流。您能否談談您認為該資產有哪些不同的用途？你覺得如果你嘗試出售它，會有人感興趣嗎？這是您正在考慮的事情嗎？謝謝。

Yeah, thanks for the question, Jordan. What I'll say today is just the things that I've reiterated, and that is we're searching for an optimal path forward here as it relates to our operating configuration in Trinidad, which is dependent on arriving at, as I say, reliable and affordable supply of natural gas in the region, and access to ports so that we can export the volumes off the island. That's the focus for today.

是的，謝謝你的提問，喬丹。我今天要說的只是我重申過的一些事情，那就是我們正在尋求一條與我們在特立尼達的運營配置相關的最佳前進道路，正如我所說，這取決於該地區能否獲得可靠且價格合理的天然氣供應，以及能否使用港口，以便我們可以將天然氣出口到島外。這就是我們今天關注的重點。

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Jeff Holzman for closing remarks.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話轉回給傑夫·霍爾茲曼，請他作總結發言。

Okay. Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available if you have any follow-up questions. Have a great day.

好的。感謝您今天蒞臨。如有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。