Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to Nutrient's 2025 second quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Holtzman, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations at FP&A.

問候並歡迎參加 Nutrient 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）。提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。現在，我想將電話會議交給 FP&A 投資者關係資深副總裁 Jeff Holtzman。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's second quarter 2025 Earnings Call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions is contained in our quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form.

謝謝您，接線生。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。在我們進行此電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計畫和前景所做的各種陳述都包含前瞻性資訊。在得出這些結論和預測時應用了某些假設。因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性資訊中的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的更多資訊包含在我們向股東提交的季度報告以及我們最新的年度報告、MD&A 和年度資訊表中。

I'll now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO, and Mark Thompson, our CFO, for opening comments.

現在，我將把電話轉給 Nutrien 總裁兼執行長 Ken Seitz 和我們的財務長 Mark Thompson，請他們發表開場評論。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today as we review our performance in the first half of 2025, progress on our strategic priorities and the outlook for our business. Our first half results featured record potash sales volumes and nitrogen operating rates, lower expenses, reduced capital expenditures and increased returns of cash to our shareholders. We raised our 2025 full year guidance for potash sales volumes while maintaining all other operational guidance ranges.

早安.感謝您今天加入我們，我們將回顧 2025 年上半年的業績、策略重點的進展以及業務前景。我們上半年的業績包括鉀肥銷售量和氮肥開工率創歷史新高、費用降低、資本支出減少以及股東現金回報增加。我們提高了 2025 年全年鉀肥銷售量預期，同時維持所有其他營運預期範圍不變。

At our Investor Day in June 2024, we communicated a pathway to structurally improve our earnings, and free cash flow through strategic initiatives across the portfolio. We also shared key operational and financial targets to measure our progress. Our results through the first half of 2025 demonstrated significant progress towards achieving these goals.

在 2024 年 6 月的投資者日上，我們傳達了一條透過整個投資組合的策略性舉措從結構上改善我們的收益和自由現金流的途徑。我們也分享了關鍵的營運和財務目標來衡量我們的進展。截至 2025 年上半年，我們的業績顯示我們在實現這些目標方面取得了重大進展。

Starting with our upstream operating segments. We increased fertilizer sales volumes by more than 400,000 tonnes compared to the same period last year and realized higher net selling prices. These results highlight the capabilities of our world-class operations, extensive distribution network and strong customer relationships that were built over many decades. We continue to prioritize investments that further strengthen our ability to cost effectively supply the growing needs of our customers.

從我們的上游營運部門開始。與去年同期相比，我們的化肥銷量增加了40多萬噸，並實現了更高的淨售價。這些結果凸顯了我們數十年來建立的世界一流的營運能力、廣泛的分銷網絡和牢固的客戶關係。我們將繼續優先考慮投資，進一步增強我們以經濟的方式滿足客戶日益增長的需求的能力。

In potash, this includes advancing mine automation projects that enhance efficiency, flexibility and most importantly, safety benefits at our sites. In the first half of 2025, we mined over 40% of our potash ore using automation. This is within our 40% to 50% target range for 2026. Our nitrogen operations performed exceptionally well in the first half, achieving a 98% ammonia utilization rate.

在鉀肥領域，這包括推進礦山自動化項目，以提高效率、靈活性，最重要的是提高我們場地的安全效益。2025 年上半年，我們以自動化方式開採了 40% 以上的鉀礦。這在我們 2026 年 40% 至 50% 的目標範圍內。我們的氮氣業務在上半年表現非常出色，氨利用率達 98%。

The focus on reliability projects at our nitrogen sites have yielded clear and favorable results. Further, brownfield debottlenecking efforts are now complete at our Redwater and Geismar plants, that will add 150,000 tonnes of annual production capacity. Within our downstream retail segment, well-defined growth opportunities continue to be progressed, along with network optimization initiatives that resulted in a 6% reduction in expenses in the first half.

我們對氮氣工廠可靠性專案的關注已經取得了明顯而有利的成果。此外，我們在 Redwater 和 Geismar 工廠的棕地去瓶頸化工作現已完成，這將增加 15 萬噸的年生產能力。在我們的下游零售領域，明確的成長機會持續取得進展，同時網路優化措施導致上半年費用減少了 6%。

As previously communicated, we are ahead of schedule on our company-wide $200 million cost savings target and expect to achieve this goal in 2025. Capital expenditures in the first half of 2025 were 18% below the prior year, as we optimized capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and progressed a set of targeted growth projects.

正如之前所傳達的，我們提前實現了全公司 2 億美元的成本節約目標，並預計在 2025 年實現這一目標。2025 年上半年的資本支出比上年下降了 18%，因為我們優化了資本以維持安全可靠的運營，並推進了一系列有針對性的成長項目。

We allocated $786 million to dividends and share repurchases in the first half, representing a 49% increase from the prior year. To put this all together, Nutrien generated higher earnings and cash from operations driven by supportive fertilizer market fundamentals and execution of our strategic priorities. We lowered costs and capital expenditures through efforts to simplify and focus our business, and we significantly increased the distribution of cash to shareholders. We believe these actions build upon the strength of our world-class asset base and position the company for strong performance into the future.

我們上半年分配了 7.86 億美元用於股利和股票回購，比前一年增加 49%。綜合起來，在化肥市場基本面支援和我們策略重點執行的推動下，Nutrien 獲得了更高的收益和營運現金。我們透過努力簡化和集中業務來降低成本和資本支出，並大幅增加了對股東的現金分配。我們相信，這些措施將鞏固我們世界一流的資產基礎，並為公司未來的強勁表現奠定基礎。

Now turning to the market outlook. Global fertilizer fundamentals have strengthened in 2025, leading to higher benchmark prices across nearly all products. Potash prices increased at a steady pace since the beginning of the year, driven by trend demand growth that is testing global operating and supply chain capabilities. The settlement of potash contracts with India and China, and favorable economics for key crops grown in Southeast Asia is expected to support demand in standard grade markets in the second half of 2025.

現在來談談市場前景。2025年全球肥料基本面將增強，幾乎導致所有產品的基準價格上漲。受趨勢需求成長的推動，鉀肥價格自今年初以來穩步上漲，這對全球營運和供應鏈能力構成了考驗。預計與印度和中國達成的鉀肥合約以及東南亞主要作物種植的良好經濟狀況將支撐 2025 年下半年標準級鉀肥市場的需求。

We had a solid uptake on our potash summer fill program in North America and anticipate stable demand in Brazil. As a result, we have raised our 2025 full year global potash shipment forecast to 73 million to 75 million tonnes. Beyond 2025, we see a constructive outlook for the potash market. We expect debt demand growth in line with historical trend levels and limited new capacity additions in the near term. Recent industry announcements further highlight that building new capacity requires significant time and capital, and often comes with the risk of delays.

我們的鉀肥夏季填充計畫在北美取得了穩定進展，預計巴西的需求也將保持穩定。因此，我們將 2025 年全年全球鉀肥出貨量預測上調至 7,300 萬至 7,500 萬噸。我們認為 2025 年以後鉀肥市場前景看好。我們預期短期內債務需求成長將與歷史趨勢水準一致，新增產能有限。最近的產業公告進一步強調，建造新產能需要大量時間和資金，並且往往伴隨延誤的風險。

Global nitrogen markets are be supported by supply-side challenges and strong seasonal demand from markets such as India. Nitrogen prices in the US have been further supported by low domestic inventories and trade flow shifts, which we anticipate continuing in the second half of 2025. Phosphate markets remain tight due to limited supply, including Chinese export restrictions. We expect global shipments in 2025 will be constrained by supply availability, and a weaker grower affordability for phosphate fertilizer could impact demand.

全球氮氣市場受到供應方挑戰和印度等市場強勁的季節性需求的支撐。美國的氮氣價格受到國內低庫存和貿易流向轉變的進一步支撐，我們預計這種情況將持續到 2025 年下半年。由於供應有限（包括中國出口限制），磷酸鹽市場仍然緊張。我們預計 2025 年全球出貨量將受到供應情況的限制，而種植者對磷肥的承受能力下降可能會影響需求。

We continue to closely monitor supply and demand developments for ag commodities and farmer sentiment in our key markets. Crop input demand in North America was strong in July, as farmers focused on maintaining optimal plant health and yield potential. Based on current projected crop yields, we expect large nutrient removal will support the need to replenish nutrients in the soil.

我們將繼續密切關注主要市場的農產品供需發展和農民情緒。由於農民注重維持最佳植物健康和產量潛力，7 月北美農作物投入需求強勁。根據目前預測的農作物產量，我們預計大量的養分去除將滿足補充土壤養分的需求。

Brazilian soybean acreage is expected to increase by 1% to 3% in 2025, driven by strong international soybean demand. Growers in Brazil have been more active purchasing crop inputs in advance of the upcoming spring planting season compared to the prior two years.

受強勁的國際大豆需求推動，預計2025年巴西大豆種植面積將增加1%至3%。與前兩年相比，巴西的種植者在即將到來的春季種植季節之前更積極地購買農作物投入品。

Overall, we continue to see a solid backdrop for our business in the second half of 2025 and are well positioned to serve our customers. We're operating the most extensive network of assets across the ag value chain, and we'll continue to focus on factors under our control to optimize free cash flow under any market conditions.

總體而言，我們繼續看到 2025 年下半年業務的穩健發展，並已做好準備為客戶提供優質服務。我們經營農業價值鏈中最廣泛的資產網絡，我們將繼續專注於我們控制的因素，以在任何市場條件下優化自由現金流。

I will now turn it over to Mark to review our results, full year guidance, and capital allocation priorities in more detail.

現在，我將把責任交給馬克，讓他更詳細地回顧我們的績效、全年指導和資本配置重點。

Thanks, Ken. As Ken described, our second quarter and first half results highlight strong pace of progress towards our Investor Day targets. Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion in the second quarter, up 11% from the prior year, while cash provided by operating activities rose by 40%. In potash, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $630 million in the second quarter, well above the prior year due to record sales volumes and higher offshore net selling prices.

謝謝，肯。正如肯所描述的，我們的第二季和上半年業績凸顯了我們在實現投資者日目標方面取得的強勁進展。Nutrien 第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 25 億美元，較上年成長 11%，經營活動提供的現金成長 40%。在鉀肥業務方面，我們第二季的調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA) 為 6.3 億美元，由於創紀錄的銷售量和更高的海外淨售價，遠高於去年同期水準。

Our North American net selling price was down from the same quarter in 2024, but up $36 per tonne from the first quarter of 2025, as we benefited from price increases following our winter fill program. Our first half controllable cash cost of product manufactured was higher than the prior year, due to lower planned potash production and increased turnaround costs.

我們的北美淨售價較 2024 年同期有所下降，但較 2025 年第一季上漲了 36 美元/噸，這得益於我們冬季填充計劃後的價格上漲。由於計畫鉀肥產量下降和周轉成本增加，我們上半年生產的可控現金產品成本高於去年同期。

However, we continue to track favorably against our goal of maintaining a controllable cash cost that is at or below $60 per tonne. We raised our full year potash sales volume guidance to 13.9 million to 14.5 million tonnes, due to the strength of first half sales and increased visibility on the second half order book. Canpotex is fully committed for third quarter sales volumes and has a significant order book in place for the fourth quarter. We had a favorable response to our domestic summer fill program, and anticipate a similar split between offshore and domestic sales volumes in the third quarter compared to the prior year.

然而，我們繼續朝著將可控現金成本維持在每噸 60 美元或以下的目標邁進。由於上半年銷售強勁且下半年訂單量增加，我們將全年鉀肥銷售量預期上調至 1,390 萬噸至 1,450 萬噸。Canpotex 已全力投入第三季的銷售，並且已經為第四季度簽訂了大量訂單。我們的國內夏季填充計畫得到了良好的反響，預計第三季海外和國內銷售量將與去年同期持平。

Our nitrogen operating segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $667 million in the second quarter, up from last year due to higher net selling prices and sales volumes. Our nitrogen plants operated very well, achieving a 98% ammonia operating rate in both the quarter and the first half. We have maintenance scheduled at our Redwater and Borger nitrogen sites starting in the third quarter, that will reduce our planned second half ammonia operating rates to around 85%.

我們的氮氣營運部門第二季的調整後 EBITDA 為 6.67 億美元，由於淨銷售價格和銷售量增加而高於去年同期。我們的氮氣工廠運作良好，本季和上半年的氨開工率均達到98%。我們計劃從第三季開始對 Redwater 和 Borger 氮氣工廠進行維護，這將使我們計劃的下半年氨氣開工率降低至約 85%。

Overall, we anticipate higher year over year operating rates on a full year basis and have maintained our nitrogen sales volumes guidance at 10.7 million to 11.2 million tonnes. In phosphate, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $92 million in the second quarter, with higher net selling prices offset by lower sales volumes and higher sulphur input costs. We completed two successful turnarounds in the second quarter and have operated at higher rates since the completion of this planned maintenance, positioning our phosphate business to deliver increased sales volumes and lower operating costs in the second half of the year.

總體而言，我們預計全年開工率將高於去年同期，並將氮氣銷售量預期維持在 1,070 萬噸至 1,120 萬噸。在磷酸鹽業務方面，我們第二季度的調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA) 為 9,200 萬美元，其中淨銷售價格上漲被銷售量下降和硫磺投入成本上升所抵消。我們在第二季度成功完成了兩次扭虧為盈，並且自完成計劃維護以來一直以更高的速度運營，使我們的磷酸鹽業務能夠在下半年實現銷售量增加和運營成本降低。

Our downstream retail business delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion in the second quarter, up 2% from the prior year. We saw strong crop input demand in the US Corn Belt, consistent with our previous view that a slower start to field activity in March would be made up in the second quarter. This strength was partially offset by unfavorable crop protection product mix shifts, dry weather in Australia, and wet weather in the Southern US that impacted planted acres.

我們的下游零售業務第二季的調整後 EBITDA 為 11.5 億美元，比上年成長 2%。我們看到美國玉米帶的農作物投入需求強勁，這與我們先前的觀點一致，即 3 月份田間活動開局放緩將在第二季度得到彌補。但這優勢被不利的作物保護產品結構變化、澳洲的乾旱天氣以及美國南部的潮濕天氣對種植面積的影響部分所抵消。

A loss of rice and cotton acres in the South was a primary contributor to the reduction in our proprietary seed sales in the second quarter. We've maintained our full year retail adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.65 billion to $1.85 billion, with the midpoint of the range underpinned by four key items. First, as Ken mentioned, we saw strong North American crop input demand in July and anticipate higher crop nutritional and crop protection purchases in the third quarter compared to the prior year.

南方地區水稻和棉花種植面積的減少是導致我們第二季專有種子銷售下降的主要原因。我們維持全年零售調整後 EBITDA 指引 16.5 億美元至 18.5 億美元，該範圍的中點由四個關鍵項目支撐。首先，正如肯所提到的，我們看到 7 月北美作物投入需求強勁，預計第三季作物營養和作物保護的購買量將比去年同期增加。

Second, we assume an open fall season in North America and project fertilizer volumes up approximately 5% compared to last year, which had a shortened application window due to wet weather. Third, timely rains have improved winter crop planting prospects in Australia, and the outlook for crop input demand looks more favorable for the second half of the year.

其次，我們假設北美秋季開放，預計化肥用量將比去年增加約 5%，而去年由於潮濕天氣而施肥時間縮短。第三，及時的降雨改善了澳洲冬季作物種植前景，下半年作物投入需求前景更加樂觀。

And finally, our margin improvement plan in Brazil remains on track, and we expect to generate increased year over year earnings through network optimization initiatives. To summarize, we delivered higher earnings and cash flow in the first half of the year, and we see clear momentum for growth on a full year basis, supported by higher upstream fertilizer sales volumes, net selling prices and downstream retail earnings.

最後，我們在巴西的利潤率提升計劃仍在按計劃進行，我們預計透過網路優化舉措將實現同比增長。總而言之，我們在今年上半年實現了更高的利潤和現金流，並且我們看到全年增長勢頭明顯，這得益於上游化肥銷量、淨售價和下游零售收益的提高。

In terms of capital allocation, our priorities remain consistent. We are focused on initiatives that support the achievement of our 2026 performance targets, optimizing investments in working capital and continuing to review noncore assets on our balance sheet, all of which we expect will enhance sources of cash flow over time.

在資本配置方面，我們的優先事項保持一致。我們專注於支持實現 2026 年績效目標的舉措、優化營運資本投資並繼續審查資產負債表上的非核心資產，我們預計所有這些都將隨著時間的推移增強現金流來源。

From a uses of cash perspective, we have committed capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and forge a narrow set of growth opportunities that have a strong fit with our strategy, are expected to provide returns in excess of our hurdle rates, and have a relatively low degree of execution risk.

從現金用途的角度來看，我們已投入資金來維持安全可靠的運營，並打造一系列與我們的策略高度契合的成長機會，預計將提供超過我們的最低收益率的回報，並且執行風險相對較低。

We have a long track record of providing a stable and growing dividend and intend on enhancing the return of capital to shareholders through more ratable share buybacks through the cycle. We remain disciplined in our approach to maintain a strong balance sheet and prioritize capital towards opportunities that we expect will deliver long-term growth in free cash flow per share.

我們長期以來一直提供穩定且不斷增長的股息，並打算透過整個週期內更多按比例回購的股票來提高股東的資本回報。我們始終堅持嚴謹的態度，保持強勁的資產負債表，並優先將資本投入到我們預計將帶來每股自由現金流長期成長的機會。

I'll now turn it back to Ken.

現在我將話題轉回給肯。

Thanks, Mark. We have a constructive outlook for our business as global fertilizer market fundamentals have tightened in 2025, supported by strong demand, persistent supply disruptions and project delays. We demonstrated strong operational performance and execution on our strategic priorities in the first half of the year, structurally improving Nutrien's earnings and free cash. We continue to strengthen our highly competitive asset base across the ag value chain and remain committed to disciplined capital allocation to maximize long-term value for our shareholders.

謝謝，馬克。由於需求強勁、供應持續中斷和專案延遲，全球化肥市場基本面在 2025 年趨緊，我們對我們的業務持建設性態度。我們在上半年展現了強勁的營運績效和策略重點的執行力，從結構上改善了 Nutrien 的獲利和自由現金。我們將繼續加強整個農業價值鏈中極具競爭力的資產基礎，並繼續致力於嚴格的資本配置，以最大限度地提高股東的長期價值。

We would now be happy to take your questions.

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示）克里斯·帕金森（Chris Parkinson），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thank you so much. At the beginning of the year, there's a little bit of a debate on potash supply being offline and the market and price appreciation being more of a supply-driven market. And towards the end of the first half, it became more evident that it was more of a demand-driven market. But it seems investors are still on edge, given some belief that half on half supply is going to dramatically improve and basically curb upside to prices or even lead to declines.

太感謝了。年初，關於鉀肥供應不足以及市場和價格上漲更多地受供應驅動的爭論不斷。到上半年末，市場越來越明顯地由需求驅動。但投資者似乎仍處於緊張狀態，因為有些人認為，一半對一半的供應將大幅改善，並從根本上抑制價格上漲，甚至導致價格下跌。

Can you just give us your updated thoughts on those specific dynamics, especially out of the FSU and then kind of how that sets up for the 2026 market? Thank you so much.

您能否向我們提供您對這些具體動態的最新看法，特別是 FSU 的情況，以及這對 2026 年市場有何影響？太感謝了。

Yeah, thanks, Chris. Yeah, so talking specifically about potash, if we -- looking globally, we're seeing very strong demand. We saw a return to trend level demand last year coming out of '22 and '23. And that's certainly the case this year where we've raised our expectations for the market to 73 million to 75 million tonnes. So that would be the strongest demand that we've seen in the market.

是的，謝謝，克里斯。是的，具體來說，就鉀肥而言，從全球來看，我們看到需求非常強勁。我們看到，2022 年和 2023 年的需求已恢復到趨勢水準。今年的情況確實如此，我們已將市場預期上調至 7,300 萬至 7,500 萬噸。這將是我們在市場上看到的最強勁的需求。

And we also have confidence that potash is going to ground because we don't see inventories elevated really in any market around the world, and actually, in several cases, we see inventories below average levels. Part of that has to do with the fact that potash is still relatively affordable. It's the most affordable crop nutrient. And as you say, with that strong demand, it is testing the ability of the market to supply both in terms of mine production but also the supply chain as well and so at the intersection of that very strong demand and what we're seeing on the supply side of the equation, which -- and you asked about FSU tonnes.

我們也相信鉀肥庫存將會下降，因為我們沒有看到全球任何市場的庫存真正增加，實際上，在幾種情況下，我們看到的庫存低於平均值。部分原因是鉀肥的價格仍然相對便宜。它是最經濟實惠的作物養分。正如您所說，在這種強勁的需求下，它正在考驗市場在礦山生產和供應鏈方面的供應能力，因此在這種非常強勁的需求與我們在供應方面看到的交匯處 - 您問到的是 FSU 噸數。

So we don't see any material change in FSU tonnes coming to the potash market. At the intersection of those things, we see the strengthening that we've seen in the potash price. And we think we're in a good spot as it relates to the potash price. In here and now, we've had our summer fill program, which we had strong uptake. We're fully committed in North America through Q3 and are now placing tonnes in Q4 at or up $20.

因此，我們並未看到進入鉀肥市場的前蘇聯噸位有任何實質變化。在這些因素的交會下，我們看到了鉀肥價格的走強。我們認為，就鉀肥價格而言，我們處於有利地位。現在，我們已經推出了夏季填充計劃，並且得到了廣泛的應用。我們已在第三季全力投入北美市場，目前計劃在第四季以每噸 20 美元或更高的價格出售這些產品。

Similarly in offshore markets, fully committed through Canpotex through Q3 and heavily committed now into Q4. So again, a very strong signpost that for 2025, our 73 million to 75 million tonnes and our raised guidance that we have -- we're constructive on those things. It is true that we're looking at North America now for the balance of the year. And obviously, with a very large corn crop that we're seeing in the US and certainly, a large crop in Brazil, we've seen some pressure on ag commodity prices and farmer grower margins. At the same time, here into the third quarter, we have seen strong field activity.

同樣，在離岸市場，第三季度透過 Canpotex 進行了全面承諾，現在已在第四季度投入了大量資金。因此，再次強調，這是一個非常強烈的信號，表明到 2025 年，我們的產量將達到 7,300 萬噸至 7,500 萬噸，並且我們已經提高了預期——我們對這些事情持建設性態度。確實，我們現在正在關注北美今年的平衡情況。顯然，由於美國玉米產量龐大，巴西玉米產量也大幅增加，農產品價格和農民種植利潤也面臨一些壓力。同時，進入第三季度，我們看到了強勁的現場活動。

We've seen good engagement, strong demand. And again, that's evidenced by our commitment levels in North America on potash and certainly, we're seeing some strength into the fall in nitrogen as well. So -- but your question was on potash. Put it all together, Chris, we were constructive on 2025. And then your question about heading into 2026.

我們看到了良好的參與度和強勁的需求。再次，這從我們在北美對鉀肥的承諾水平中得到證明，當然，我們也看到氮肥產量下降的勢頭。所以——但你的問題是關於鉀肥的。克里斯，總而言之，我們對 2025 年抱持著建設性的看法。然後是關於 2026 年的問題。

Again, given where inventory levels are at, where we don't see elevated inventory levels that -- with potash being affordable, growers are going to be looking to replace the large amount of crop nutrients that are going to be pulled out of the soil with this big crop.

再次，考慮到庫存水平，我們看不到庫存水平上升——由於鉀肥價格便宜，種植者將尋求用這種大作物來替代從土壤中抽取的大量作物養分。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Andrew Wong。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just touching a little bit on what you just touched on at the end of your answer on affordability like what's your sense on farmer sentiment and health today, just given some of the recent softness there? And how does that change in fertilizer affordability impact purchasing?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。也許我只是稍微談談您在回答最後提到的關於負擔能力的問題，例如考慮到最近那裡的一些疲軟情況，您對今天農民的情緒和健康狀況有何看法？化肥價格承受能力的變動對購買有何影響？

And maybe more specific to just the dynamic between nitrogen, phosphate and potash because prices for all three have moved in different directions, which we haven't really seen for a very, very long time. So how does that impact farmer decisions on what fertilizers to apply? Thank you.

也許更具體地說只是氮、磷酸鹽和鉀之間的動態，因為這三種物質的價格都朝著不同的方向變動，這是我們很久沒有見過的。那麼這對農民施用何種肥料的決定有何影響？謝謝。

Yeah, thanks Andrew. Yeah, and certainly, as I mentioned, we are seeing some pressure on ag commodity prices, corn, soybeans, and on grower margins. For the first half of the year, things kind of played out the way we had expected in the Corn Belt in the Western US and Canada and Brazil, was really the Southern US, where it was wet and in Australia, where it was dry where we saw some pressure, and we're feeling some of that now into the second quarter.

是的，謝謝安德魯。是的，正如我所提到的，我們看到農產品價格、玉米、大豆以及種植者利潤面臨一些壓力。今年上半年，美國西部、加拿大和巴西的玉米帶的情況與我們預期的一樣，美國南部的天氣潮濕，澳大利亞的天氣乾燥，我們看到了一些壓力，而進入第二季度，我們仍然感受到了這種壓力。

That said, again, we're seeing strong uptake in the third quarter and field activity in -- and in Australia, while it was a slow start given a dry beginning of the planting season for their winter crop, they've gotten some rain in July here, which now we've seen increased activity. But I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk a little bit more about that, and then maybe, Chris, if you want to talk about those dynamics between NP&K that sort of affordability discussion.

話雖如此，我們再次看到第三季度的強勁增長和田間活動——在澳大利亞，雖然由於冬季作物種植季節開始時天氣乾燥，開局緩慢，但這裡 7 月份迎來了一些降雨，現在我們看到活動有所增加。但我會把時間交給傑夫來進一步談論這個問題，然後也許，克里斯，如果你想談談 NP&K 之間的動態，那種可負擔性的討論。

Yeah, thanks, Ken. And as you mentioned earlier, I mean, we continue to see very strong engagement from our growers as we go into the third quarter. If I'm looking at the areas that were not affected by weather in the first half of the year, then we would see most of those regions have performed basically in line with what we thought. We mentioned the Corn Belt, our Western US business, Canada and Brazil from that standpoint.

是的，謝謝，肯。正如您之前提到的，進入第三季後，我們繼續看到種植者的積極參與。如果我看一下上半年未受天氣影響的地區，那麼我們會發現大多數地區的表現基本上符合我們的預期。我們從這個角度提到了玉米帶、美國西部業務、加拿大和巴西。

You mentioned the Corn Belt specifically; we saw our tonnage up about 9% for the first half of the year. And as I look going into the third quarter, we see -- again, we see growers investing dollars to protect their yields right now. And when you get in a low-price environment, growers going to really push for yields in that type of environment. And we see that happening right now from the plant health standpoint and from a nutritional standpoint.

您特別提到了玉米帶；今年上半年我們的產量增加了約 9%。當我展望第三季時，我們再次看到種植者投入大量資金來保護他們的產量。當處於低價環境時，種植者會真正努力提高產量。從植物健康和營養的角度來看，我們現在看到了這種情況的發生。

Yeah, no thanks, Jeff. And Andrew, as we think about the domestic market and that balance between NP&K, as Ken mentioned, we -- there is a big crop growing out there that's going to pull a lot of nutrients out of the ground. Our midstream customers are telling us they need to prepare for what they believe is going to be a good fall application season. This crop is developing well.

是的，不用了，傑夫。安德魯，當我們考慮國內市場以及 NP&K 之間的平衡時，正如肯所提到的那樣，我們——那裡正在生長著大量農作物，這些農作物將從地面吸收大量養分。我們的中游客戶告訴我們，他們需要為即將到來的秋季申請季做好準備。這種作物長得很好。

We do believe that subject to weather, there will be an open window there for growers to get out and apply fertilizer in the fall, especially in the Midwest. And as Ken said, potash remains the most affordable nutrient. So what our customers are telling us is they're preparing for a good fall across NP&K. As you've noticed, yes, these nutrients have moved in different directions a little bit in terms of pricing so we'll be watching how that's balanced in the fall. But overall, we're getting ready, and our customers are getting ready for a good fall application period.

我們確實相信，如果天氣允許，種植者在秋季可以出去施肥，尤其是在中西部地區。正如肯所說，鉀仍然是最經濟實惠的營養素。因此，我們的客戶告訴我們，他們正在為 NP&K 的良好秋季銷售做好準備。正如您所注意到的，是的，這些營養素在定價方面略有不同，因此我們將關注秋季的平衡。但總的來說，我們正在做好準備，我們的客戶也在為秋季申請期做好準備。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，BMO 資本市場。

Hi, If I could just harp on the retail demand or fall demand question in North America a little bit more. Like I know that's the biggest determinant. I think I know that the biggest determinant in the fall season is just how big -- how good the weather is, the open season comments you said, I know that, okay. So are your comments just really about that, that it looks like the weather is going to be good and that's the largest determinant of a fall season, not necessarily affordability? That's my first question.

你好，我可以再多談談北美的零售需求或秋季需求問題嗎？就像我知道那是最大的決定因素。我想我知道秋季最大的決定因素就是天氣有多好，你說的開放季節評論，我知道，好的。那麼，您的評論真的只是關於這一點嗎？看起來天氣會很好，這是秋季最大的決定因素，而不一定是負擔能力？這是我的第一個問題。

And the second question is just as you think about Brazil and retail, how confident are you that you'll be able to shift next year to getting back to a $50 million, $60 million, $70 million, $80 million EBITDA run rate versus maybe breakeven this year? And what are the drivers to get there?

第二個問題是，正如您所考慮的巴西和零售業，您對於明年能夠將 EBITDA 運行率恢復到 5000 萬美元、6000 萬美元、7000 萬美元、8000 萬美元而不是今年的盈虧平衡有多大信心？那麼實現這目標的驅動力是什麼呢？

Good. Well, thank you, Joel. And I think you've actually articulated that well, that heading into the fall here, given the signposts that we're seeing and that we've talked about as it relates to good engagement so far in Q3 and certainly we saw that in July. And the crop that's coming off, it's going to pull a lot of again, fertilizer soil nutrients out of the ground. And the discussions that we're having with our customers and where inventory levels are at, that given an open application season, yes, we expect to have a decent fall. But that's dependent on weather exactly as you said -- we're expecting fertilizer volumes to be up 5% from last year.

好的。好吧，謝謝你，喬爾。我認為您實際上已經很好地表達了這一點，考慮到我們看到的跡像以及我們已經討論過的與第三季度迄今為止的良好參與度相關的情況，進入秋季，當然我們在 7 月份也看到了這一點。而正在收割的農作物又會從土地中吸收大量的肥料和土壤養分。我們正在與客戶討論庫存水平，考慮到開放的申請季節，是的，我們預計庫存水準將大幅下降。但正如您所說，這取決於天氣——我們預計化肥產量將比去年增加 5%。

You may recall that we had a compressed application season last year. And so where the crop is at today and some being harvested, as we speak, things are pointing to an open fall, and that's good for seeing volumes go to ground. As it relates to Brazil, what I'll say is our Brazil improvement plan is on track. We've talked about the decisions that we've made as it relates to shuttering of plans. We've reduced headcount there.

您可能還記得，去年我們的申請季節比較緊湊。因此，就今天的作物狀況以及一些正在收割的情況來看，情況表明作物將大幅下降，這對於看到大量作物進入土地是件好事。就巴西而言，我想說的是，我們的巴西改進計劃正在按計劃進行。我們已經討論了與終止計劃有關的決定。我們已經減少了那裡的員工人數。

Our focus on collections, our focus on inventory management and shuttering of blenders, all of those things now contributing for us to get to sort of a breakeven, somewhat even perhaps positive EBITDA level here in 2025. And we expect that trend to continue into 2026, where obviously, the market needs to continue to cooperate, but that we expect that we'll be in the positive next year.

我們專注於收款、庫存管理和關閉攪拌機，所有這些現在都有助於我們在 2025 年實現收支平衡，甚至可能達到正的 EBITDA 水平。我們預計這一趨勢將持續到 2026 年，顯然，市場需要繼續合作，但我們預計明年將呈現積極態勢。

Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的本‧艾薩克森 (Ben Isaacson)。

Thank you, and good morning. If we move past fall demand and start thinking about 2026, if corn and soy prices hold about $4 and $10 respectively over the next little while, what are the risks to each of your segments if farmer economics stay where they are in the Americas? How much downside do you think we have in which divisions? And the reason I'm asking is you talked about potash being affordable, but on the other hand, some would argue that potash is typically a lower ranked crop input. So I'm just trying to triangulate that. Thank you.

謝謝，早安。如果我們超越秋季需求並開始考慮 2026 年，如果玉米和大豆價格在未來一段時間內分別保持在 4 美元和 10 美元左右，如果農民經濟保持與美洲相同的水平，那麼您的每個部門將面臨哪些風險？您認為我們在哪些部門面臨多大的不利因素？我之所以問這個問題，是因為您說鉀肥價格便宜，但另一方面，有些人認為鉀肥通常是一種較低等級的農作物投入品。所以我只是想對此進行三角測量。謝謝。

Yeah, thank you for the question, Ben. And yes, it's true. I'm already starting to think about 2026. And growers will get this crop off and they'll be looking to get ready for next year, and another big crop, and we'll see where corn and soybean prices are at.

是的，謝謝你的提問，本。是的，這是真的。我已經開始思考 2026 年了。種植者將收穫今年的作物，並為明年的豐收做好準備，我們將關注玉米和大豆的價格。

But if we go commodity to commodity, again, we see ongoing strength in potash demand. And the way it's been growing, as I said earlier, on trend. Heading into 2026, we believe that to be true as well. And it's just step change in demand in places like China, Southeast Asia with [MYR4,200] palm oil prices and a mandate of palm oil -- clean fuel mandate of 40%, moving from 35%, very strong demand in Southeast Asia.

但如果我們逐一分析各大商品，我們再次看到鉀肥需求持續強勁。正如我之前所說，它的成長方式是順應趨勢的。展望 2026 年，我們相信這也同樣適用。隨著棕櫚油價格上漲至 [MYR4,200]，以及棕櫚油清潔燃料強制要求佔比從 35% 上升至 40% ，中國、東南亞等地的需求正在發生階躍變化，東南亞的需求非常強勁。

We look at Brazil, where last year they consumed 47 million tonnes of fertilizer. This year, it will be 48 million tonnes of fertilizer. And so we can go market to market. And of course, North America, again, we see a lot of crop nutrients coming out of the soil. On the demand side of the equation, we see strength. And then on the supply side, I won't call it a challenge, but we have seen project delays, and we have seen the ability of the market to meet these demand levels.

讓我們看看巴西，去年他們消耗了 4700 萬噸化肥。今年化肥產量將達4,800萬噸。這樣我們就可以進入各個市場。當然，在北美，我們再次看到大量農作物養分從土壤中流失。在等式的需求方面，我們看到了實力。然後在供應方面，我不會稱之為挑戰，但我們已經看到專案延遲，我們已經看到市場滿足這些需求水準的能力。

And at that intersection, we see where prices are at and prices are strong. Prices are in a good place right now because as I said earlier, it's affordable, but at the same time, we like to see volumes moving to our customers at these levels. And so we see that carrying into 2026.

在那個交叉點，我們可以看到價格在哪裡，而且價格很強勁。目前價格處於良好水平，因為正如我之前所說，價格可以承受，但同時，我們希望看到銷售量以這樣的水平流向客戶。我們認為這一趨勢將持續到 2026 年。

On nitrogen, we've seen, again, strong demand and the Indians having difficulty procuring urea, while at the same time, Chinese limiting urea exports and certainly not getting back to sort of historic average levels out of that part of the world, which has meant strength in urea markets combined with some supply disruptions certainly out of the Middle East.

對於氮肥，我們再次看到強勁的需求，印度採購尿素遇到困難，同時，中國限制尿素出口，而且該地區的尿素出口肯定沒有恢復到歷史平均水平，這意味著尿素市場強勁，但同時也出現了中東地區的供應中斷。

And that would be true for ammonia, where we -- again, we see a bit of seasonal weakness at the moment, but given some challenges, supply challenges out of Russia and the Middle East and some of the new project challenges out of Russia and the Gulf Coast, there's been supply issues there as well, and we'll see about European gas pricing as compared to North America, where the delta is still $8 or $9.

對於氨也是如此，我們再次看到目前有點季節性疲軟，但考慮到一些挑戰，來自俄羅斯和中東的供應挑戰以及來自俄羅斯和墨西哥灣沿岸的一些新項目的挑戰，那裡也存在供應問題，我們將看到歐洲天然氣價格與北美相比，那裡的差價仍然為 8 美元或 9 美元。

And again, we head into 2026 and we expect that those dynamics will persist. I think we can talk about phosphate. Yes, phosphate prices are elevated. We're watching for any of the grower reaction to higher prices here into the fall and how that translates into 2026. Again, strong demand over phosphate and supply side issues. So you can go nutrient to nutrient and heading out to 2025 and 2026, we'll see how the international growers feeling. We'll see what happens here in North America. But overall, Ben, we feel constructive.

我們即將進入 2026 年，我們預計這些動態將會持續下去。我想我們可以談談磷酸鹽。是的，磷酸鹽價格上漲了。我們正在關注種植者對秋季價格上漲的反應，以及這種反應對 2026 年的影響。再次，磷酸鹽需求強勁，供應方面也存在問題。因此，你可以逐一了解營養成分，展望 2025 年和 2026 年，我們將看看國際種植者的感受。我們將看看北美會發生什麼。但總體而言，本，我們感覺很有建設性。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Wondering if you could talk a little bit about your own expectations for your potash production going into next year. It sounds like you're anticipating another year of shipment growth for the industry. And the commentary for a while now has been that you're looking to take your traditional market share. So what incremental capacity would you look to add into next year?

謝謝大家，早安。想知道您是否可以談談您對明年鉀肥產量的預期。聽起來您預計該行業明年的出貨量還會成長。一段時間以來的評論是，你們正在尋求佔領傳統市場份額。那麼您希望明年增加多少產能？

Yeah, thanks, Vincent, And this year, you've seen our guidance range, which we've upped, so just over 14 million tonnes at the midpoint. And we would say that, we look at the way we've built out not just our mine production, but now our supply chains and ability to get to customers, that we have 15 million tonnes of installed capacity, although not obviously staffing to those levels because the lead time for staffing is such that we can watch the market and, as it evolves, bring on operators to continue to liberate tonnes.

是的，謝謝，文森。今年，您已經看到了我們的指導範圍，我們已經將其上調，因此中間值略高於 1400 萬噸。我們會說，我們不僅關注礦山生產的建設方式，而且關注現在的供應鏈和獲得客戶的能力，我們擁有 1500 萬噸的裝機容量，儘管顯然人員配備還沒有達到這個水平，因為人員配備的準備時間使得我們可以觀察市場，並隨著市場的發展，讓運營商繼續釋放產量。

That will be the same philosophy for next year, where you can expect that as the market grows and we've talked about this 2.5% average annual growth rates on trend, which is where we are today, that we will grow with the market and maintain market share. We will bring on those operators and we'll produce those tonnes. Again, we have the flexibility with our 6-mine network. We've made those investments in our supply chain to get to our customers. That gives us the flexibility to expand tonnes into this growing market.

明年的理念也是一樣的，你可以預期，隨著市場的成長，我們已經談到了 2.5% 的平均年增長率，也就是我們今天的水平，我們將隨著市場的增長而增長並保持市場份額。我們將引入這些操作員並生產這些噸位。再次，我們的 6 礦網路具有靈活性。我們對供應鏈進行了投資，以便接觸到我們的客戶。這使我們能夠靈活地將產量擴大到這個不斷成長的市場。

Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

史蒂夫漢森、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Yeah, good morning. Thanks for the time. Just a broader question about the portfolio. How do you feel about the portfolio from an optimization standpoint today? You've gone through a process of divesting a few noncore items here in the South, not just recently. Is there more to do there on that front in terms of like further optimizing or streamlining the core versus noncore? How do you view that as an opportunity or is it even a priority today? Thanks.

是的，早安。謝謝你的時間。這只是一個關於投資組合的更廣泛的問題。從優化的角度來看，您對今天的投資組合有何看法？你們最近在南方經歷了剝離一些非核心項目的過程。這方面還有什麼工作要做嗎？例如進一步優化或簡化核心與非核心？您如何看待它作為一次機會或它是當今的優先事項？謝謝。

Yeah, Thanks for the question, Steve. And I will say we're probably never done looking at the portfolio and understanding how to optimize free cash flow per share and return on those assets. Absolutely true that we have done quite a bit of work on that front already, whether it's the process that we're in Profertil right now, divesting of our shares in Sinofert, which we've talked about. We've actually gotten some rid of some smaller immaterial assets, some in Italy.

是的，謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。我想說的是，我們可能永遠不會停止研究投資組合併了解如何優化每股自由現金流和這些資產的回報率。確實，我們在這方面已經做了大量工作，無論是我們現在在 Profertil 的進程，還是我們討論過的剝離我們在中化化肥的股份。我們實際上已經處理掉一些較小的非物質資產，其中一些在義大利。

We've sold a blender in Brazil. I just provide those as examples of us just continuing to really be rigorous across the portfolio insisting on performance. And not in a position today to talk about further portfolio changes, and how we're going to manage that. But what I can say is, yes, we're absolutely looking at opportunities to continue to upgrade that portfolio in the name of free cash flow per share and a return on those assets.

我們在巴西銷售了一台攪拌機。我只是以這些為例，說明我們在整個投資組合中繼續嚴格堅持績效。今天我們無法談論進一步的投資組合變化以及我們將如何管理這些變化。但我可以說的是，是的，我們絕對在尋找機會，以每股自由現金流和資產回報率的名義繼續升級該投資組合。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan

摩根大通 Jeff Zekauskas

Thanks very much. Your gross profits per tonne in North America and crop nutrients is kind of flat, even though the different commodities have performed pretty well. And in general, in your retail segment, you seem to be doing a good job of cutting SG&A costs, but not so much making progress on the gross margin. Is that just weather? Are you satisfied with your general performance? What are the dynamics around gross profits and SG&A levels?

非常感謝。儘管不同商品的表現都相當不錯，但你們在北美和作物營養方面的每噸毛利卻比較平穩。總體而言，在零售領域，你們似乎在削減銷售、一般和行政費用方面做得很好，但在毛利率方面卻沒有取得太大的進步。那隻是天氣嗎？你對自己的整體表現滿意嗎？毛利和銷售、一般及行政費用水準的動態如何？

Yeah, thank you for the question, Jeff. And there's a number of moving parts there. We are pleased with our progress certainly on the cost side of the equation, and there's more to do there. We know that, and we expect carrying out through the balance of the year. That will be part of the story is ongoing focus on reductions in cost.

是的，謝謝你的提問，傑夫。那裡有許多活動部件。我們對成本方面取得的進展感到滿意，但我們在這方面還有更多的工作要做。我們知道這一點，並且我們期望在今年餘下的時間裡實現這一​​點。這將是故事的一部分，持續關注成本的降低。

But maybe I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk more about just margins on fertilizers and what we're seeing through the balance of the year.

但也許我會把它交給傑夫，讓他更多地談論化肥的利潤率以及我們在今年餘下時間裡看到的情況。

If I just walk through the segments from a margin rate perspective, our crop protection margins actually were surprisingly a bit better than we anticipated coming into this year through the first half. And we think we see an opportunity to expand that a bit more in the second half. If I look at our margins on fertilizer, if you look at it from a global basis, we are flat year over year. And that takes -- you got to take into effect that we strategically made decisions in Brazil to lower our tonnage there and go to a different marketing -- direct marketing concept versus going through those blenders that we've mentioned several times that we idled.

如果我只從利潤率的角度來看各個部分，那麼我們的作物保護利潤率實際上比我們預期的今年上半年要好一些。我們認為，下半年我們有機會進一步擴大這一規模。如果我看一下我們化肥的利潤率，如果從全球角度來看，我們的利潤率與去年同期持平。而這需要——你必須考慮到我們在巴西做出的策略決策，降低我們在那裡的噸位，並轉向不同的行銷——直接行銷理念，而不是透過我們多次提到的那些閒置的攪拌機。

And that brings a lower margin profile on those tonnes. I think we're down -- we strategically plan to be down about 200,000 tonnes through the half, and that's basically what we're off from that standpoint. And we are in a -- as we talked about several times today, we're in a competitive environment. So I'm pleased with where we are today from a margin perspective. I think as we get an opportunity to get more of our nutritionals into our mix, which, again, we've seen a very strong start in July, I think we'll see that margin per tonne pick up a bit.

這導致這些噸位的利潤率較低。我認為我們下降了——我們的戰略計劃是到下半年減少約 20 萬噸，從這個角度來看，這基本上就是我們的下降趨勢。正如我們今天多次談到的，我們正處於一個競爭環境。因此，從利潤率的角度來看，我對我們目前的狀況感到滿意。我認為，隨著我們有機會將更多的營養成分納入我們的產品組合中，而且我們在 7 月看到了非常強勁的開端，我認為我們會看到每噸的利潤率略有上升。

And then on the seed side, our margin rates on seed are in line with our expectations as well. That was more of a volume story. But we're continuously working to try to get our margins up. We talk about the second half of the year and we talk about controlling our controllables. And one aspect of that is working to continue to expand our margins across all of our crop input segments.

在種子方面，我們的種子利潤率也符合我們的預期。這更像是一個數量故事。但我們一直在努力提高利潤率。我們談論下半年，談論控制我們的可控因素。其中之一就是努力繼續擴大我們所有農作物投入領域的利潤率。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默

Hi, good morning. Thank you for the question. Somewhat of a double-click or follow-up on that prior one, thinking specifically to this EBITDA bridge for the first half of the year. You've noted the more favorable environment in July. I'm just wondering if there's anything here in this bridge, whether it's crop protection products or maybe even on the expenses, that shifts around in the back half of the year. Anything that turns from a bad guy to a good guy. Just how to think about that bridge for the back half. Thank you.

嗨，早安。謝謝你的提問。有點像是雙擊或跟進前一個，特別考慮今年上半年的 EBITDA 橋。您已經注意到七月份的環境更加有利。我只是想知道這座橋上是否有什麼東西，無論是作物保護產品還是費用，在下半年都會改變。任何能從壞人變成好人的事情。只是如何思考後半部的那座橋。謝謝。

Yeah, I certainly, at the higher level, it's the things we've talked about but I'll hand it over to Jeff for that double-click.

是的，當然，在更高層面上，這是我們已經討論過的事情，但我會將其交給傑夫進行雙擊。

Yeah, for the second half of the year and I think I mentioned it just a minute ago, controlling our controllables will be at the top of our list. We also think, again, that we have an opportunity to convert more acres on our full year nutritionals, which we really like a lot. We like our portfolio as it relates to that. A heavy, heavy focus on the expense side of things. I think through the first half, we were able to take 6% out.

是的，對於下半年，我想我剛才提到過，控制我們的可控因素將是我們首要的任務。我們也再次認為，我們有機會將更多的土地轉化為全年營養作物，我們對此感到非常滿意。我們喜歡與此相關的投資組合。非常重視事物的費用面。我認為，在上半年，我們能夠拿下 6% 的利潤。

We expect to continue with that effort in the second half of the year. And again, Ken mentioned Australia. We've got some -- we had a very tough half from a weather perspective there. We see improvements there. We think that's going to bring us some opportunities on the proprietary side of the business as well as we go into second half of the year.

我們期望在今年下半年繼續這項努力。肯再次提到了澳洲。我們遇到了一些問題——從天氣角度來看，我們經歷了非常艱難的一半。我們看到了那裡的進步。我們認為，這將為我們進入下半年的專有業務帶來一些機會。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho Securities

瑞穗證券的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯

Thank you and good morning, everyone. I mean, just a quick question on potash, Ken. So I mean, I think a comment I've heard somebody say, like what is wrong with potash? As you note, it's surprisingly like the most affordable nutrient, now lagging behind both phosphate and nitrogen. But seriously, do you prefer being in that position? Or do you want to close the price gap between potash and the other nutrients?

謝謝大家，早安。我的意思是，我只是想問一個關於鉀肥的簡單問題，肯。所以我的意思是，我想我聽過有人說，鉀有什麼問題？正如您所說，它令人驚訝地像最便宜的營養物質，現在落後於磷酸鹽和氮。但說真的，你喜歡處於那個位置嗎？還是您想縮小鉀肥與其他營養素之間的價格差距？

And related to that, I think like last week, we saw a small decline in potash prices in Brazil. I mean, that's like the first drop in almost a year. Does that mean anything to you or you just think it's just a blip?

與此相關的是，我認為就像上週一樣，我們看到巴西鉀肥價格小幅下跌。我的意思是，這是近一年來的首次下降。這對你來說意味著什麼，還是你認為這只是曇花一現？

Yeah, and then thank you for the question. So we -- again, we're constructive on the potash market and we like when potash is affordable for growers. And when it is, we see record potash demand and consumption. That's what's playing out today. And again, that meeting the supply side of the equation, that intersection clears the market and what has been kind of 10-year average historic level potash prices, those are healthy prices for us. And again, we're constructive on that.

是的，謝謝你的提問。因此，我們 — — 再次強調，我們對鉀肥市場持建設性態度，我們喜歡鉀肥對於種植者來說價格實惠。當這種情況發生時，我們就會看到創紀錄的鉀肥需求和消費量。這就是今天正在發生的事情。再次，滿足等式的供應方，交叉點清理市場，並且鉀肥價格的 10 年平均歷史水平，對我們來說是健康的價格。再次強調，我們對此持建設性態度。

So heading into the fall here, and we've talked about North America, but globally, whether it's Southeast Asia and palm plantations or whether it's step change in China, what we're seeing in -- on the macro level in Brazil, and yeah, North American fall -- an open fall application season in North America, like our volumes are moving, our mines are producing, our unit cost of production is going to be below $60. And again, that's where we like to be.

因此，進入秋季，我們已經討論了北美，但在全球範圍內，無論是東南亞和棕櫚種植園，還是中國的階躍變化，我們在巴西的宏觀層面上看到的，是的，北美秋季 - 北美開放的秋季應用季節，我們的產量在移動，我們的礦山在生產，我們的單位生產成本將低於 60 美元。再說一次，這正是我們想要的。

In Brazil, they're getting ready to plant soybeans here in September. There's been a bit of a seasonal lull in Brazil, that's true. We've seen a bit of softening in the price, but we expect there's going to be a lot of volume moving again and going to ground as they plant soybeans in that part of the world. So overall, Edlain, I certainly appreciate the question. But no, we are constructive on where the potash market is today.

在巴西，他們正準備在九月種植大豆。確實，巴西出現了一些季節性的淡季。我們看到價格略有下降，但我們預計，隨著該地區開始種植大豆，大量大豆將再次流入地裡。總的來說，艾德萊恩，我非常感謝這個問題。但不，我們對現今鉀肥市場的狀況持建設性態度。

Ariana Milin, CIBC Capital Markets.

加拿大帝國商業銀行資本市場 (CIBC Capital Markets) 的 Ariana Milin。

Good morning and thank you for taking my question. With relatively better pricing for ammonia over upgraded nitrogen products in North America, do you see the potential for a shift to greater ammonia use as a source of nitrogen in the fall?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。由於北美氨的價格相對高於升級氮產品，您是否認為秋季氨作為氮源的使用量有可能增加？

Yeah, thanks for the question, Ariana. That's just no, but Chris, do you want to just explain that a bit?

是的，謝謝你的提問，阿麗亞娜。那當然不是，但克里斯，你想稍微解釋一下嗎？

Yeah, no, good morning, Ariana. Thanks for the question. As we look at that fall, it will be dependent on how growers are thinking about what they're going to plant next year. And if they're going to put ammonia down in the fall, that would mean a commitment to planting corn. So we'll wait and see.

是的，早上好，亞莉安娜。謝謝你的提問。當我們展望秋季時，這將取決於種植者如何考慮明年要種植什麼。如果他們要在秋季施用氨水，那就意味著要致力於種植玉米。所以我們拭目以待。

I mean, sometimes these growers make this decision on combine and what they're thinking about for next year. But we don't see a material shift in terms of the nitrogen product going down this fall. We think that will be at about average levels. I would say that we are seeing low inventory levels of UAN right now. And we are thinking that there's going to be some strength in that price as we look towards the fall season.

我的意思是，有時這些種植者會根據聯合收割機以及他們對明年的計劃做出決定。但我們並未看到今年秋季氮產量出現實質下降。我們認為這將處於平均水平。我想說的是，我們現在看到 UAN 的庫存水準很低。我們認為，隨著秋季的到來，價格將會有一定的上漲。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

美國銀行的馬修‧德約 (Matthew DeYoe)。

Morning, yeah, I apologize if I missed this earlier, but seed sales obviously pretty weak through 1H in retail, and maybe that's just cotton in the South or whatever. But as you think about -- or can you provide a little clarity on price volumes there? And then as we set up for next year, assuming more -- if it is the South, right, if weather is more cooperative, do we get a -- you expect to get that volume back pretty well, I guess? I'll leave it there.

早上好，是的，如果我之前錯過了這個，我很抱歉，但種子銷售在上半年零售業顯然相當疲軟，也許這只是南方的棉花或其他什麼。但是正如您所想的——或者您能否稍微澄清一下那裡的價格量？然後，當我們為明年做準備時，假設更多 - 如果是南方，對吧，如果天氣更加配合，我們是否會得到 - 我猜你預計產量會恢復得很好？我就把它留在那裡。

Yeah, no, Matt, thanks for the question. I think you said it. We did see some crop mix shifts in that part of the world. But Jeff, do you want to just dive into that a little bit?

是的，不，馬特，謝謝你的提問。我想你說過。我們確實看到那個地區的農作物結構發生了一些變化。但是傑夫，你想稍微深入探討一下這個問題嗎？

Yeah, thanks, Ken. Yeah, the seed revenue is 100% around two factors. First, we saw a significant prevent plant in our Southern region. Our Southern region is our largest share of seed in North America. And so when you have something like prevent plant, it can have a dramatic effect on seed revenue. So those acres actually did not get planted.

是的，謝謝，肯。是的，種子收入 100% 取決於兩個因素。首先，我們在南部地區發現了一個重要的預防植物。我們的南部地區是北美最大的種子產地。因此，當你擁有像預防植物這樣的產品時，它可以對種子收入產生巨大的影響。所以這些土地其實並沒有被種植。

I would expect 100% of that to return next year. That forecasting that we would have a spring not unlike what we had this last year, which was in that area was one of the wettest springs in the last 150 years. We also saw crop mix changes and that's primarily around cotton. And due to some of the economics around cotton and across the South, we saw a lot of cotton acres.

我預計明年這一數字將 100% 恢復。預測我們今年春天的降雨量與去年類似，而去年是該地區 150 年來最潮濕的春天之一。我們也看到作物結構發生變化，主要是棉花。由於棉花和整個南方地區的一些經濟狀況，我們看到了大量的棉花種植面積。

If you're in Texas, a lot of cotton acres converted to sorghum or milo and -- which is a much less significant from a revenue perspective. We'll have to see year over yearwhat cotton commodity pricing does. I would anticipate in Texas, we would see some of those acres return, but it's way too early to predict that right now.

如果你在德州，很多棉花種植地轉而種植高粱或高粱——從收入角度來看，這沒那麼重要。我們將逐年觀察棉花商品定價的變動。我預計在德克薩斯州，我們會看到一些土地恢復，但現在預測還為時過早。

David Symonds, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的戴維‧西蒙茲。

Hi, good afternoon. Yeah, if I could just come back on Jeff's question. If I look at the average selling price in the crop nutrient segment of retail, it's up 2% year on year, whilst into the third quarter, the potash NOLA benchmark, for example, is up 20%-plus year on year. So is there a catch-up pricing benefit in the second half for retail?

嗨，下午好。是的，如果我可以回到傑夫的問題。如果我看一下零售作物營養品領域的平均售價，它同比上漲了 2%，而到第三季度，例如，鉀肥 NOLA 基準價格同比上漲了 20% 以上。那麼下半年零售業是否能獲得追趕定價優勢呢？

Yeah, Jeff you want to take that.

是的，傑夫，你想接受這個。

And some of that's reflected from a standpoint of -- and I've said this many times with as many tonnes as we move through these markets, we have to layer in our purchasing. And so we would have -- for the tail end of the season, we would have been buying into a market that was much higher priced from that standpoint. And that affects margins as well from that standpoint. We feel like we're well positioned going into the fall.

其中一些反映在一個角度上——我已經多次說過，當我們在這些市場上運輸大量噸位時，我們必須分層採購。因此，從這個角度來看，在賽季末期，我們會購買價格高得多的市場。從這個角度來看，這也會影響利潤。我們感覺我們已經為秋天做好了準備。

We don't think we're overly aggressive from that standpoint. And I'm going to allude back to many of the things that were said here today, we talked a lot about having a really large corn crop. We also have a really large soybean crop, and -- which removes a lot of nutrients as well. And so we do see some opportunities in the back half of the year. We talked about it.

從這個角度來看，我們認為我們並不過度激進。我要回顧一下今天在這裡討論的許多事情，我們討論了很多關於獲得真正豐收的玉米作物的問題。我們的大豆產量也很大，但這也損失了許多營養素。因此，我們確實看到了今年下半年的一些機會。我們討論過這件事。

If we get an open fall, then we see an opportunity to move about 5% more volume into that market, and we hope we can do it as well by expanding some margins.

如果出現開盤下跌，我們就有機會將約 5% 的交易量轉移到該市場，我們希望也能透過擴大利潤率來做到這一點。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS Financial.

瑞銀金融的盧卡斯·博蒙特。

Thank you, good morning. Just going back to potash, I mean, you've mentioned that you see -- have seen sort of some challenges in the market meeting the demand level this year from a supply perspective. So I think just looking to 2026, if we get another year of normal demand growth, where do you kind of see the supply coming from?

謝謝，早安。回到鉀肥問題，我的意思是，您提到從供應角度來看，今年市場在滿足需求水平方面面臨一些挑戰。所以我認為展望 2026 年，如果我們再經歷一年正常的需求成長，您認為供應將從何而來？

And if you think the market is going to struggle to meet that, and you want to kind of maybe flex up and take more than your 20% share, when would you kind of need to push the button on those staffing decisions you mentioned? Thanks.

如果您認為市場很難滿足這一需求，而您想要靈活變通，獲得超過 20% 的份額，那麼您什麼時候需要對您提到的人員配置決策做出決定？謝謝。

Yeah, thanks for the question, Lucas. And yes, it continues to be the case that we've seen those FSU tonnes come back into the market. We've seen some new tons coming out of Laos. Although the rate of growth out of those -- that part of the world has slowed. And we've seen, as we mentioned earlier, project delays that certainly are going to impact next year and beyond. And so strong demand meeting supply, we kind of call the market in balance at the moment or close to being in balance and heading into next year.

是的，謝謝你的提問，盧卡斯。是的，我們確實看到那些前蘇聯噸位重新回到了市場。我們看到一些新的噸位來自寮國。儘管該地區的成長率已經放緩。正如我們之前提到的，我們已經看到專案延遲肯定會影響明年及以後的發展。因此，在強勁的需求滿足供應的情況下，我們稱市場目前處於平衡狀態或接近平衡狀態，並將進入明年。

We have a few other producers that can probably, on the margins, expand production a bit. And certainly, we would be one of those as well, Lucas. And so I would say with what we're intending for next year, which, as I mentioned earlier, is the strategy to maintain market share, grow with the market as it grows, meet the needs of our customers who are growing at that rate as well and bringing on people to produce accordingly.

我們還有其他一些生產商，他們或許可以在邊際上稍微擴大產量。當然，我們也是其中之一，盧卡斯。所以我想說，我們明年的計劃是，正如我之前提到的，我們的策略是保持市場份額，隨著市場的增長而增長，滿足同樣以這種速度增長的客戶的需求，並相應地吸引人才進行生產。

That's our plan. And again, we expect to be in a strong market next year, given the demand fundamentals and the fact that supply is right around that demand level, we'll be right around that demand level and certainly, as project delays continue to persist.

這就是我們的計劃。而且，我們預計明年市場將強勁，考慮到需求基本面以及供應正好在需求水準附近，我們也會正好在需求水準附近，當然，由於專案延遲會持續存在。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

Good morning and thank you very much for taking my question. I wanted to follow-up real quick on capital allocation as we look into it. So you had a significant improvement in terms of free cash flow generation versus a year ago, but at the same time, it feels like there's a little bit of a slowdown on the share repurchase program. So I just want to understand like how you think about these purchases in regard to like just dividend versus investments and share repurchases. Thank you.

早上好，非常感謝您回答我的問題。我想在我們研究資本配置時快速跟進這個問題。因此，與一年前相比，你們的自由現金流產生方面有了顯著改善，但與此同時，感覺股票回購計劃有所放緩。所以我只是想了解您如何看待這些購買，例如股息、投資和股票回購。謝謝。

Yeah, and thank you for the question, Ben. No, slowdown on share repurchases. We've been buying at about a sort of $45 million per month level. And I think for the balance of the year, that's a good way to think about it as we -- as the year has unfolded for us and certainly as we continue to be quite constructive on how it's unfolding. With respect to sort of the broader philosophy around capital allocation, dividends and share repurchases, I'll hand it over to Mark to provide more detail.

是的，謝謝你的提問，本。不，股票回購放緩。我們每個月的採購量約為 4500 萬美元。我認為，就今年的平衡而言，這是一個很好的思考方式——隨著這一年對我們來說已經展開，當然，隨著我們繼續對它的展開持相當建設性的態度。關於資本配置、股利和股票回購的更廣泛的理念，我將交給馬克提供更多細節。

Yeah, thanks, Ken. Maybe just stepping back a bit and reiterate a couple of comments that both Ken and I have made this morning. I think first and foremost, continue to focus on generating increasing structural sources of cash for the business. So we continue to see strong operational performance, and that was evident here in the first half for us.

是的，謝謝，肯。也許只是稍微退一步並重申肯和我今天早上提出的幾點評論。我認為首先，繼續致力於為企業創造越來越多的結構性現金來源。因此，我們繼續看到強勁的營運業績，這在上半年就得到了明顯體現。

So growing underlying earnings across the entire business in line with our Investor Day targets, and we feel like we're making good progress on that. As Ken has also mentioned and I have as well, continuing to look at a really rigorous approach to working capital optimization and shedding assets in the portfolio that don't generate the types of returns that we want. And so over time, we think all of those things will grow cash. More specifically to your question on capital allocation, our priorities are consistent, and they haven't really changed. So again, if you look at our CapEx profile of the year, $2 billion to $2.1 billion with $400 million to $500 million of that focused on a very narrow set of growth priorities that we continue to execute against.

因此，整個業務的潛在收益按照我們的投資者日目標不斷增長，我們感覺我們在這方面取得了良好的進展。正如肯和我所提到的，我們將繼續研究一種真正嚴格的方法來實現營運資本優化，並剝離投資組合中那些無法產生我們想要的回報的資產。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們認為所有這些都將帶來現金成長。更具體地說，對於您關於資本配置的問題，我們的優先事項是一致的，而且並沒有真正改變。因此，如果您再看一下我們今年的資本支出概況，就會發現 20 億到 21 億美元，其中 4 億到 5 億美元專注於我們將繼續執行的一組非常狹窄的成長重點。

And more specifically with respect to return of capital, as Ken said, as the philosophy around share repurchase really over the past year has been ratable buybacks over time, and we want that to be something that is a staple in our capital allocation framework over time and through cycles. And as Ken mentioned, that roughly $45 million per month run rate is something that we see as being sustainable and balanced through the remainder of the year.

更具體地說，關於資本回報，正如肯所說，過去一年來圍繞股票回購的理念實際上是隨著時間的推移進行按比例回購，我們希望這成為我們資本配置框架中隨著時間的推移和周期變化的主要內容。正如肯所提到的那樣，我們認為每月約 4500 萬美元的運行率是可持續的，並且在今年剩餘時間內保持平衡。

You mentioned the dividend -- with respect to the dividend, the philosophy has also not changed there. We like the absolute level of the dividend from a cash outlay standpoint, and we believe that as we continue to repurchase the stock of the company, we'll be able to grow dividends per share over time just as we have this year.

您提到了股息——就股息而言，其理念也沒有改變。從現金支出的角度來看，我們喜歡股息的絕對水平，並且我們相信，隨著我們繼續回購公司股票，我們將能夠像今年一樣隨著時間的推移增加每股股息。

And amongst all of that, we believe we can continue to strengthen the balance sheet. So it continues to be just a disciplined, focused and balanced approach on capital allocation.

除此之外，我們相信我們可以繼續強化資產負債表。因此，它仍然只是一種有紀律、有重點且平衡的資本配置方法。

Richard Garchitorena, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的理查德‧加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

Great, thank you. Maybe just wanted to touch on the cost progress you've made, roughly almost $200 million in cost savings expected this year. Should we expect additional buckets? Do you see further upside potential in that target? And how are you thinking about additional cost savings in '26? Thanks.

太好了，謝謝。也許只是想談談你們所取得的成本進展，預計今年的成本節省約為 2 億美元。我們應該期待更多的桶子嗎？您是否認為該目標還有進一步的上漲潛力？您如何考慮在 26 年進一步節省成本？謝謝。

Thank you for the question, Richard. Yes, we had set ourselves a $200 million cost reduction target by 2026 and it's really targeting SG&A. And thus far, we would say we're going to certainly achieve that in 2025, so ahead of the schedule. And about half of that coming out of our retail business, and about half of it coming out of our corporate SG&A. Is there more to be done? The answer to that is also yes, and maybe I'll hand it over to Mark just to provide a little more color.

謝謝你的提問，理查德。是的，我們設定了在 2026 年削減 2 億美元成本的目標，這實際上針對的是銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A)。到目前為止，我們可以說我們肯定會在 2025 年實現這一目標，從而提前完成計劃。其中約一半來自我們的零售業務，約一半來自我們的企業銷售、一般及行政費用。還有更多事情要做嗎？答案也是肯定的，也許我會把它交給馬克，只是為了提供更多的色彩。

Sure. Thanks, Ken. So as Ken said, we're beginning to see those expense rationalization activities really show through in our results. As we showed in our earnings presentation, if you look first half over first half, you can see over $100 million or just over $100 million in expense down versus last year in the first half. And so I think there's tangible evidence that the efforts that we've made are showing through.

當然。謝謝，肯。正如肯所說，我們開始看到這些費用合理化活動確實在我們的結果中顯現出來。正如我們在收益報告中所展示的，如果你回顧一下上半年，你會發現與去年上半年相比，支出減少了 1 億多美元或略高於 1 億美元。因此我認為有確鑿的證據表明我們所做的努力正在取得成效。

And as Ken said, that's really been focused, about 50% in the retail business across the rationalization activities we've undertaken in Brazil. Closures of underperforming locations in North America, regional consolidation of storefronts and optimization in Australia, and in our corporate functions, just continuing to be disciplined about simplifying and focusing the organization and that's resulted in SG&A opportunities. So as we continue to move forward, as Ken said, we're quite bullish. There's going to be more opportunities for us as we continue to explore opportunities, and we'll have more to say on that in the future.

正如肯恩所說，我們在巴西所進行的合理化活動中約有 50% 的重點放在零售業務上。關閉北美表現不佳的門市、在澳洲進行店面區域整合和優化，以及在我們的公司職能方面，繼續嚴格執行簡化和集中組織的紀律，從而帶來銷售、一般和行政管理方面的機會。因此，正如肯所說，隨著我們繼續前進，我們非常樂觀。隨著我們不斷探索機會，我們將擁有更多的機會，未來我們將對此有更多發言權。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Jeff Holzman for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給傑夫·霍爾茲曼，請他作結束語。請繼續。

Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available if you have any follow-up questions. Have a great day.

感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。