Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Holzman, VP of Investor Relations.

謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音中。我現在想將電話會議轉交給投資人關係副總裁 Jeff Holzman。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call.

謝謝你，接線生。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts.

當我們進行本次電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計劃和前景所做的各種聲明都包含前瞻性資訊。在做出這些結論和預測時應用了某些假設。

Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form.

因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性資訊中包含的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的更多資訊包含在我們向股東提交的季度報告以及我們最近的年度報告、MD&A 和年度資訊表中。

I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz. Nutrien's President and CEO; and Mark Thompson, our CFO, for opening comments.

我現在將把電話轉給肯·塞茨。 Nutrien 總裁兼執行長；我們的財務長馬克湯普森 (Mark Thompson) 發表了開場評論。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to review our third quarter results, the progress on our strategic priorities and the outlook for our business. At our Investor Day in June, we outlined a set of 2026 performance targets that provide a pathway for driving structural improvements to our earnings and cash flow through the cycle. As highlighted in our third quarter release, we have made significant progress in a number of these priorities in 2024.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們回顧我們第三季的業績、我們策略重點的進展以及我們的業務前景。在 6 月的投資者日上，我們概述了一系列 2026 年業績目標，為推動整個週期的獲利和現金流的結構性改善提供了途徑。正如我們在第三季發布的報告中所強調的，我們在 2024 年在許多優先事項上取得了重大進展。

This includes accelerating the time line for achieving $200 million in actionable operational efficiency and cost savings. We now expect to achieve this target by 2025, 1 year earlier than our initial goal with cost reductions evenly split between retail and corporate. Nutrien is in a.

這包括加快實現 2 億美元可操作營運效率和成本節約的時間表。我們現在預計在 2025 年實現這一目標，比我們最初的目標提前一年，零售業和企業之間平均分配成本削減。 Nutrien 是在一個。

Unique position to expand production and sales of potash at nitrogen with limited capital expenditures. We set a 2026 target to increase upstream sales volumes by 2 million to 3 million tonnes compared to 2023 levels. And through the first nine months of 2024, we have increased sales volumes by 1.3 million tonnes.

具有獨特的優勢，可以在有限的資本支出下擴大氮鉀肥的生產和銷售。我們設定的2026年目標是上游銷售量比2023年增加200萬噸至300萬噸。到 2024 年前 9 個月，我們的銷量增加了 130 萬噸。

In our downstream retail business, we have faced some headwinds associated with a more prolonged recovery in Brazil and softening in North America at commodity prices. However, we remain confident in the growth platforms that support our 2026 retail financial targets, which include an expansion of our proprietary products business, network optimization, tuck-in acquisitions and the execution of our improvement plan in Brazil.

在我們的下游零售業務中，我們面臨一些與巴西經濟長期復甦和北美大宗商品價格疲軟相關的阻力。然而，我們對支持我們 2026 年零售財務目標的成長平台仍然充滿信心，其中包括擴大我們的專有產品業務、網路優化、收購以及執行我們在巴西的改進計劃。

Through a focused and disciplined approach to executing our capital projects, we expect to further optimize capital expenditures in 2025 to a range of $2 billion to $2.1 billion. This total includes the capital required to maintain our world-class asset base and meet our growth objectives.

透過採取有針對性和嚴格的方法來執行我們的資本項目，我們預計在 2025 年將資本支出進一步優化至 20 億至 21 億美元的範圍。這一總額包括維持我們世界一流的資產基礎和實現我們的成長目標所需的資本。

We will continue to pursue each of these performance targets with a focus on how we can enhance our offering of products and services to the grower, all while structurally growing our earnings and free cash flow. Now turning specifically to our 2024 results.

我們將繼續追求這些績效目標，重點關注如何增強向種植者提供的產品和服務，同時結構性地增加我們的收入和自由現金流。現在具體談談我們 2024 年的業績。

Nutrien generated adjusted EBITDA of $4.3 billion through the first nine months in 2024, supported by increased downstream retail earnings higher upstream fertilizer volumes and lower operating costs. Retail adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.4 billion in the first nine months, up 10% from the prior year. North American crop nutrient margins increased by $17 per ton compared to 2023, supported by a stabilization of fertilizer markets and continued growth for our proprietary crop nutrients and biostimulant product lines.

在下游零售收入增加、上游化肥產量增加和營運成本降低的支持下，Nutrien 在 2024 年前 9 個月實現調整後 EBITDA 43 億美元。今年前 9 個月，零售業調整後 EBITDA 總額為 14 億美元，比去年同期成長 10%。與 2023 年相比，北美作物養分利潤每噸增加了 17 美元，這得益於化肥市場的穩定以及我們專有的作物養分和生物刺激劑產品線的持續增長。

The improvement in per tonne margin was partially offset by lower North American crop nutrient sales volumes, which were impacted by wet weather in May, lower corn acres and reduced field activity in the third quarter.

每噸利潤率的提高被北美作物養分銷量的下降部分抵消，北美作物養分銷量的下降受到五月份潮濕天氣、玉米種植面積減少和第三季度田間活動減少的影響。

Crop Protection margins in North America have improved in 2024 and while seed margins were lower, primarily due to the impact of dry weather and delayed planting on our proprietary seed business in Brazil. We ended the third quarter with Crop Protection inventory down 13% compared to the prior year as we focus on tightly managing working capital levels.

2024 年，北美作物保護利潤率有所提高，而種子利潤率則較低，這主要是由於乾旱天氣和播種延遲對我們在巴西的專有種子業務的影響。由於我們專注於嚴格管理營運資金水平，第三季末我們的作物保護庫存比去年下降了 13%。

Turning to Potash. We generated adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 billion in the first nine months, down from the prior year due to lower benchmark prices. We increased potash production across our six mine network and lowered our controllable cash cost of production to $52 per tonne over this period. The reduction in per time costs was primarily driven by higher production volumes and the benefits of 6-mine automation investments.

轉向鉀肥。由於基準價格較低，我們前 9 個月的調整後 EBITDA 為 16 億美元，低於去年同期。在此期間，我們增加了六個礦山網路的鉀肥產量，並將可控現金生產成本降低至每噸 52 美元。每次成本的降低主要是由於產量的提高和 6 個礦山自動化投資的好處。

We sold record potash volumes in response to increased demand from our customers. We achieved this performance despite a short-term disruption in Canadian rail service during the third quarter, highlighting the advantages of our industry-leading supply chain and effective planning by our commercial teams.

為了滿足客戶不斷增長的需求，我們銷售了創紀錄的鉀肥量。儘管第三季加拿大鐵路服務出現短期中斷，我們仍取得了這項業績，凸顯了我們業界領先的供應鏈和商業團隊有效規劃的優勢。

In Nitrogen, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion in the first nine months, down from the prior year as the benefit of lower natural gas costs was more than offset by lower nitrogen prices in the first half of 2024.

在氮氣方面，我們前 9 個月的調整後 EBITDA 為 14 億美元，低於上一年，因為天然氣成本下降的好處被 2024 年上半年氮氣價格下降所抵消。

Our North American nitrogen assets remained very well positioned on the global cost curve, and we continue to progress reliability initiatives that have contributed to higher production volumes in 2024. Nitrogen selling prices in the third quarter increased compared to the prior year, reflecting tight global supply, in particular, for ammonia.

我們的北美氮氣資產在全球成本曲線上仍然處於非常有利的位置，我們繼續推進可靠性計劃，這些舉措有助於提高2024 年的產量。所上升，反映出全球供應緊張，特別是對於氨。

Phosphate fertilizer benchmark prices have remained strong, contributing to higher net selling prices in the third quarter compared to the prior year. Weather-related events impacted our phosphate operating rates, resulting in lower sales volumes and incremental costs.

磷肥基準價格依然堅挺，導致第三季淨售價高於去年同期。與天氣相關的事件影響了我們的磷酸鹽開工率，導致銷售下降和成本增加。

Now turning to the market outlook for the remainder of 2024. We have seen a good start to the fall application season in North America with crop nutrient sales in October above the historically strong levels achieved in the same month of 2023. The increase in demand has been driven by a relatively early harvest and the significant need to replenish soil nutrients following this year's record harvest.

現在轉向 2024 年剩餘時間的市場前景。收成後補充土壤養分的龐大需求推動了這一趨勢。

Global grain stocks remained below historical average levels, supporting export demand for North American crops and firm prices for key agricultural commodities such as rice, sugar and palm oil. Both potash consumption is projected at a record level in 2024, supported by strong agronomic need and relative affordability.

全球糧食庫存仍低於歷史平均水平，支撐了北美農作物的出口需求以及大米、糖和棕櫚油等主要農產品價格的堅挺。在強勁的農藝需求和相對承受能力的支持下，預計 2024 年鉀肥消費量將創下歷史新高。

We have raised our full year global shipment forecast to a range of 70 million to 72 million tonnes and expect continued growth in 2025.

我們將全年全球出貨量預測上調至 7,000 萬噸至 7,200 萬噸，並預計 2025 年將持續成長。

We anticipate limited new global capacity additions next year, creating the potential for incremental supply tightness compared to 2024. Global nitrogen markets have remained firm in the fourth quarter due to continued Chinese urea export restrictions, ammonia supply outages and project delays. U.S. nitrogen inventories are estimated to be well below historical average levels, which we expect will support strong demand for the fall season and into 2025.

我們預計明年全球新增產能有限，與 2024 年相比，可能會出現供應緊張的情況。美國氮庫存預計遠低於歷史平均水平，我們預計這將支持秋季和 2025 年的強勁需求。

I will now turn it over to Mark to provide more details on our full year 2024 guidance assumptions and our capital allocation plans.

我現在將其轉交給 Mark，以提供有關我們 2024 年全年指導假設和資本配置計劃的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Ken. Good morning, everyone. As Ken highlighted, Nutrien delivered record potash volumes through the first nine months of 2024, and we've raised our annual potash sales volume guidance to 13.5 million to 13.9 million tonnes.

謝謝，肯。大家早安。正如 Ken 所強調的那樣，Nutrien 在 2024 年前 9 個月交付了創紀錄的鉀肥產量，我們已將年度鉀肥銷量指導提高至 1350 萬噸至 1390 萬噸。

The rate reflects our scheduled maintenance downtime in the fourth quarter and the assumption of a relatively short duration labor disruption at the Port of Vancouver that's currently impacting [Kitec] shipments through the Neptune terminal.

該比率反映了我們第四季度計劃的維護停機時間，以及溫哥華港相對較短的勞動力中斷的假設，目前正在影響通過 Neptune 碼頭的 [Kitec] 貨運。

For the full year, we expect our potash controllable cash cost of production to be down approximately 5% compared to 2023, strengthening our position as one of the world's lowest cost producers. In Nitrogen, we revised our annual sales volume guidance to 10.6 million to 10.8 million tonnes.

我們預計全年鉀肥可控現金生產成本將比 2023 年下降約 5%，從而鞏固我們作為全球成本最低生產商之一的地位。在氮氣方面，我們將年銷量指引修訂為 1,060 萬噸至 1,080 萬噸。

The range reflects the impact of extended turnarounds and unplanned outages in the third quarter including the impact of weather-related events. We expect higher operating rates in the fourth quarter with turnarounds at select North American nitrogen sites now complete.

此範圍反映了第三季延長週轉和計劃外停電的影響，包括天氣相關事件的影響。我們預計第四季的開工率會更高，部分北美氮工廠的周轉現已完成。

For Retail, our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance was revised to $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion as favorable growing conditions in North America reduced pest pressure and limited field activity in the third quarter. Grower demand increased in October, and we expect North American crop nutrient sales in the fourth quarter to be similar to the historically strong levels achieved into 2023.

對於零售業，我們的全年調整後 EBITDA 指引被修訂為 15 億至 16 億美元，因為北美有利的生長條件減少了害蟲壓力，並且第三季度的現場活動有限。 10 月種植者需求增加，我們預計第四季度北美作物養分量將與 2023 年實現的歷史強勁水準相似。

As Ken outlined, we're focused on strategic priorities that support the achievement of our 2026 performance targets. We believe provide a pathway for enhancing earnings and free cash flow. Looking ahead, we see several levers available to optimize sources and uses of cash across Nutrien.

正如 Ken 所概述的那樣，我們專注於支持實現 2026 年績效目標的策略優先事項。我們相信這提供了一條提高收益和自由現金流的途徑。展望未來，我們看到多種槓桿可用於優化 Nutrien 的現金來源和使用。

From a sources standpoint, Ken described the areas we've identified to drive increased cash flow from operations. This includes increasing upstream fertilizer volumes from existing assets, delivering downstream retail earnings growth and driving operational efficiencies and cost savings across our network to ensure we maintain a low cost position.

從來源的角度來看，肯描述了我們已確定的可推動營運現金流增加的領域。這包括利用現有資產增加上游化肥產量，實現下游零售收入成長，並提高整個網路的營運效率和成本節約，以確保我們維持低成本地位。

We continue to evaluate ways to simplify and focus our portfolio, optimizing our investments in working capital and reviewing assets on our balance sheet that may not warrant maintaining with the objective of improving cash flow conversion through the cycle.

我們繼續評估簡化和集中我們的投資組合的方法，優化我們對營運資本的投資，並審查資產負債表上可能不需要維持的資產，以改善整個週期的現金流轉換。

In terms of uses of cash, we are allocating $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion in 2024 to sustain and enhance our assets, a reduction of over $400 million compared to 2023. We expect to further optimize CapEx in 2025 to a range of $2 billion to $2.1 billion, strengthening free cash flow and positioning the company to countercyclically deploy capital towards high conviction opportunities.

在現金使用方面，我們將在2024 年分配22 億至23 億美元用於維持和增強我們的資產，與2023 年相比減少超過4 億美元。至2.1 美元的範圍億美元，加強自由現金流，並使公司能夠逆週期配置資本以實現高信念機會。

We have a long track record of providing a stable and growing dividend as a core part of the return we deliver to our shareholders. Our dividend per share has increased by 35% since the beginning of 2018, while maintaining a total dividend payment of around $1 billion due to the significant reduction in share count over this time period.

我們在提供穩定且不斷增長的股息方面有著長期的記錄，這是我們向股東提供回報的核心部分。自 2018 年初以來，我們的每股股息增加了 35%，同時由於在此期間股票數量大幅減少，股息支付總額保持在 10 億美元左右。

The allocation of our remaining free cash flow is currently focused on a narrow set of growth investments and on share repurchases with the goal of maximizing our risk-adjusted returns and growing free cash flow per share.

我們剩餘的自由現金流的分配目前集中在少數成長投資和股票回購上，目的是最大化我們的風險調整回報和增加每股自由現金流。

From a growth standpoint, we are focused on projects that have a strong fit with our strategy, provide returns in excess of our hurdle rates and have a relatively low degree of execution risk. These are growth platforms where we've proven our ability to execute and deliver value.

從成長的角度來看，我們專注於與我們的策略高度契合、提供超過我們最低迴報率且執行風險相對較低的專案。在這些成長平台上，我們證明了我們執行和創造價值的能力。

Today, this includes investments in proprietary products, network optimization, tuck-in acquisitions, nitrogen debottleneck projects and mine automation and projects. We've also repurchased 1.5 million shares for approximately $75 million since late September and intend on repurchasing shares on a more ratable basis under our NCIB program that's authorized through February 2025.

如今，這包括對專有產品、網路優化、收購、氮消除瓶頸項目以及礦山自動化和項目的投資。自 9 月底以來，我們也以約 7,500 萬美元的價格回購了 150 萬股股票，並打算根據我們授權至 2025 年 2 月的 NCIB 計劃以更高的評級基礎上回購股票。

I'll now turn it back to Ken for closing remarks.

現在我將把它轉回給 Ken 做結束語。

Thanks, Mark. We remain focused on strategic priorities and strengthen the advantages of our business across the ag value chain. Our results through the first nine months of 2024 demonstrate progress towards our 2026 targets on a number of these priority areas. This includes accelerating the time line for delivering operational efficiency and cost savings, optimizing capital expenditures, expanding upstream fertilizer sales volumes and advancing high-return downstream retail growth opportunities.

謝謝，馬克。我們仍然專注於策略重點，並加強我們在整個農業價值鏈上的業務優勢。我們 2024 年前 9 個月的結果表明，我們在許多優先領域在實現 2026 年目標方面取得了進展。這包括加快營運效率和成本節約的時間表、優化資本支出、擴大上游化肥銷售以及推動高回報下游零售成長機會。

As Mark highlighted, we are focused on allocating capital on a countercyclical basis towards a targeted set of growth initiatives and share repurchases that enhance free cash flow per share.

正如馬克所強調的那樣，我們專注於在反週期的基礎上分配資本，以實施一系列有針對性的成長計劃和股票回購，以提高每股自由現金流。

We would now be happy to take your questions.

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

Andrew Wong of RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的安德魯黃 (Andrew Wong)。

I was just wondering if you could provide any update on how you plan on implementing a buyback program going forward with maybe more regular or systemic or dramatic type repurchases? And just given where your shares trade today, how would you view buybacks versus any FX spending on growth?

我只是想知道您是否可以提供有關您計劃如何實施回購計劃的最新信息，以及可能更定期、系統性或戲劇性的回購？考慮到您的股票今天的交易情況，您如何看待回購與任何促進成長的外匯支出？

Thanks, Andrew. We can certainly talk about what we mean by ratable. Of course, we bought back stock this year. We're going to continue with that through the balance of the year. As we look now into -- we've been using the word countercyclical. We've pulled back on capital.

謝謝，安德魯。我們當然可以談論可評級的含義。當然，我們今年回購了股票。我們將在今年剩下的時間裡繼續這樣做。正如我們現在所研究的那樣，我們一直在使用「反週期」這個詞。我們已經撤回了資本。

We have -- and that's on the investing side. And now we pulled back to optimizing across the capital portfolio. and a number of other measures that are going to liberate free cash flow. As we look at look today at the highest and best use for that to improve free cash flow per share growth. And at the moment, yes, we're buying back our stock and we do that analysis.

我們有——這是在投資方面。現在我們重新開始優化整個資本投資組合。以及其他一些將釋放自由現金流的措施。當我們今天看看提高每股自由現金流成長的最高和最佳用途時。目前，是的，我們正在回購我們的股票並進行分析。

But Mark, maybe you want to provide some more color on our plans are and why we use the word ratable.

但是馬克，也許你想為我們的計劃提供更多的信息，以及為什麼我們使用“可評級”這個詞。

Yes, absolutely. Thanks, Ken. Andrew, so look, I think just to step back and reiterate Andrew, a bit of what Ken said, I mean, our capital allocation priorities, they're going to continue to follow the strategic direction of simplifying and focusing the organization and really exercising the discipline in both cost and capital management. And these are things that we control regardless of market conditions. So this intensified focus on both optimizing sources of cash and uses of cash with the objective of growing free cash flow per share is something that is really top of mind for us.

是的，絕對是。謝謝，肯。安德魯，所以看，我想退一步重申安德魯，肯說的一點，我的意思是，我們的資本配置優先事項，他們將繼續遵循簡化和集中組織的戰略方向，並真正行使成本和資本管理方面的紀律。無論市場狀況如何，這些都是我們可以控制的。因此，加強對優化現金來源和現金使用的關注，以增加每股自由現金流為目標，這確實是我們的首要任務。

With respect to your question on share repurchases specifically, I think just to highlight and recap, we commenced share repurchases in the second half of September. And if you look at that time period, we've purchased about $75 million worth of stock over the last 1.5 months. And as we said, we intend to continue ratable repurchase activity at a general similar run rate to what we've done so far through the end of that authorization in February 2025.

關於你具體關於股票回購的問題，我想只是為了強調和回顧一下，我們在九月下半月開始了股票回購。如果你看看那個時期，我們在過去 1.5 個月裡買了價值約 7500 萬美元的股票。正如我們所說，我們打算繼續按比例回購活動，其運行率與我們迄今為止所做的大致相似，直至 2025 年 2 月授權結束。

I think as Ken highlighted, we sit here today -- and that set of growth objectives that we have has been narrowed. They're focused. They are things we've done before. A number of them are accretive to free cash flow.

我認為，正如肯所強調的那樣，我們今天坐在這裡——我們的成長目標已經縮小了。他們很專注。它們是我們以前做過的事。其中許多可以增加自由現金流。

But the reason we've continued to make progress on the buyback here over the last couple of months and intend to continue doing so as we do see compelling value, not only from a risk-reward standpoint, but the ability to grow free cash flow per share independent of market conditions. As we look at alternatives at this point in the cycle, obviously, agricultural commodities have turned down somewhat over the last few months.

但過去幾個月我們在回購方面繼續取得進展並打算繼續這樣做的原因是我們確實看到了令人信服的價值，不僅從風險回報的角度來看，而且從增加自由現金流的能力來看每股獨立於市場狀況。當我們在週期的這個階段審視替代品時，顯然，農產品在過去幾個月中有所下降。

And if we look to past cycles, particularly in the retail business, that has presented us with opportunities at weaker points in the commodity cycle where we can continue to consolidate in those market conditions. We've been quite disciplined over the last couple of years in stronger market conditions, but we anticipate some of those tuck-in acquisitions, particularly in North America, will come back to us. So we'll be looking to those alternatives opposite share buyback. But today, the buyback is compelling to us.

如果我們回顧過去的周期，特別是在零售業務中，這為我們提供了大宗商品週期較弱點的機會，我們可以在這些市場條件下繼續鞏固。過去幾年，在市場情況走強的情況下，我們一直非常自律，但我們預計，其中一些收購，特別是在北美的收購，將會回到我們身邊。因此，我們將尋找與股票回購相反的替代方案。但今天，回購對我們來說很有吸引力。

Ben Isaacson from Scotia Capital.

來自 Scotia Capital 的 Ben Isaacson。

I just have one question on potash. It's quite rare that we see three years of consecutive growth in potash demand, especially following a year of global shipmentsespecially following a year of record global shipments that we're seeing this year as the channel gets to be swapped. In light of your comments about softening field activity as crop prices are low, can you talk about your confidence level that potash demand will grow next year in line with your report?

我只有一個關於鉀肥的問題。我們看到鉀肥需求連續三年增長是非常罕見的，特別是在全球出貨量創下一年新紀錄之後，尤其是在今年隨著渠道更換而創下全球出貨量紀錄的一年之後。鑑於您對農作物價格低迷導致田間活動疲軟的評論，您能否談談您對明年鉀肥需求將根據您的報告增長的信心程度？

Thank you, Ben. Yes, I think for 2024, or ash volumes have been strong, and you've seen that we've changed our own local shipments range to 70 million to 72 million tonnes, that is true. But there are a number of reasons that were constructive for 2025. I can start with global inventories and you look around the world and you could say that global inventories are at average or below average levels in just about every market -- major market on the planet with perhaps the exception of Brazil.

謝謝你，本。是的，我認為 2024 年，或者說灰燼量一直很強勁，而且您已經看到我們已將自己的本地發貨範圍更改為 7000 萬至 7200 萬噸，這是事實。但有很多理由對 2025 年具有建設性。

But even with Brazil, they are -- they continue to return to record level demand consumption of crop nutrient. NPK this year, probably about 46 million tons, which would be similar to previous record levels.

但即使是巴西，作物養分的需求消耗仍持續恢復到創紀錄的水準。今年氮磷鉀產量可能約為 4,600 萬噸，與先前的創紀錄水準相似。

Similarly, China is consuming record levels of NPK. We've seen that in potash. We're seeing that in nitrogen at the moment, and we're seeing it in phosphate as well. It is true that we've seen a very strong drop in North America and that commodity prices have come off, that's true. But at the same time, that strong profit pullout inside of the ground.

同樣，中國的氮磷鉀消耗量也創歷史新高。我們已經在鉀肥中看到了這一點。目前我們在氮中看到了這一點，在磷酸鹽中也看到了這一點。確實，我們看到北美出現了非常強勁的下跌，大宗商品價格也有所下降，這是事實。但同時，內部利潤的強勁撤退。

And so that those nutrients are going to need to be replaced. And in fact, even here in the fall, we've had an early harvest. The fall is open, and we're looking at a lot of activity in the fall application season, getting ready for what farmers will be a good -- has been a good growing season.

因此，這些營養素將需要被替換。事實上，即使在秋天，我們也已經提前收穫了。秋季開放，我們正在關注秋季申請季節的大量活動，為農民做好準備——這是一個良好的生長季節。

Next year, again, with North American farm margins being about its 10-year average. It's also the case, the softer input prices have stimulated some demand. So we've seen strong demand in this price environment. And importantly, we're still returning to trend level demand in potash. I mean we're just getting now to what we would consider to be trend level post this conflict in Eastern Europe and everything that, that brought.

明年，北美農場利潤率將再次達到十年平均值。事實也是如此，投入價格疲軟刺激了一些需求。因此，我們在這種價格環境下看到了強勁的需求。重要的是，我們的鉀肥需求仍回到趨勢水準。我的意思是，我們現在剛剛達到我們認為的東歐衝突及其帶來的一切之後的趨勢水平。

So I would say a number of things that are going on at the moment that we have now a range for next year of 71 million to 74 million tonnes, again, looking to return to that trend level demand growth. But Chris, anything you wanted to add?

因此，我想說的是目前正在發生的一些事情，我們明年的產量範圍為 7,100 萬噸至 7,400 萬噸，再次希望回到需求成長的趨勢水準。但克里斯，你還有什麼想補充的嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Ken. The only thing maybe to reiterate is that as we look around the world on these major potash markets, we're not really seeing any inventory build that's concerning to us. And as we talk to customers in each of those markets, they're also optimistic about demand for 2025, particularly as Ken said, that these prices remaining at affordable levels. And even if we were to see, for example, in China, inventories grow around 3 million tonnes, you put that into the context of apparent consumption at around 18 million to 19 million tonnes. And again, we don't see that concerning. So we do see the good consumption levels that we've seen in 2024 continuing into 2025.

是的。謝謝，肯。唯一需要重申的是，當我們環顧全球這些主要鉀肥市場時，我們並沒有真正看到任何與我們相關的庫存增加。當我們與每個市場的客戶交談時，他們也對 2025 年的需求持樂觀態度，特別是正如 Ken 所說，這些價格仍保持在可負擔的水平。例如，即使我們看到中國的庫存增加約 300 萬噸，你也可以將其納入表觀消費量約 1800 萬噸至 1900 萬噸的背景下。再說一遍，我們不認為這有什麼關係。因此，我們確實看到 2024 年的良好消費水準會持續到 2025 年。

Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

BMO 資本市場的喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)。

I'm going follow up on the potash question with a couple of many questions, if you don't mind. I don't think you mentioned Southeast Asia oil pan. It seems like palm oil prices are really, really doing well. It looks like in a recent tender this week in Southeast Asia. It looks like you got maybe a little bit higher price, but not massively higher.

如果您不介意的話，我將用幾個問題來跟進鉀肥問題。我認為你沒有提到東南亞油田。看來棕櫚油價格真的非常非常好。這看起來像是本週在東南亞最近舉行的招標。看起來你的價格可能會高一點，但不會高很多。

So first question there is why should we not see some greater pricing there, the palm oil? Also I didn't mention on some of the drivers for '25? And then second question would be when you look at supply for 25, what more supply do you see coming on? Are you anticipating more supply from Laos? Are you anticipating more tonnes to get through St. Petersburg and Bronco from--? Any other supply drivers?

因此，第一個問題是，為什麼我們不應該看到棕櫚油的更高定價？另外我沒有提到 '25 的一些驅動程式？第二個問題是，當您查看 25 的供應時，您認為還會有多少供應？您預期老撾會有更多供應嗎？您是否預計會有更多噸貨物從——經過聖彼得堡和布朗科？還有其他供應驅動因素嗎？

Thanks, Joel. That's a couple of great observations. Thank you. Yes, I would say with respect to Southeast Asia, we haven't mentioned it yet, but you're absolutely right. In fact, for 2024, part of the rebound to trend level demand that we just talked about. Part of that story is here to Southeast Asia. And it's for the reasons that you said, affordability is strong.

謝謝，喬爾。這是一些很棒的觀察。謝謝。是的，我想說的是，關於東南亞，我們還沒有提到，但你說得完全正確。事實上，對於2024年，部分需求將反彈至我們剛才談到的趨勢水準。這個故事的一部分發生在東南亞。正是出於你所說的原因，承受能力很強。

When we see palm oil prices at MYR 4,000 per ton, but there's also strong rice prices in the region that we expect strong demand. And for an important standard grade market, like I say, that's certainly part of the story for 2024.

當我們看到棕櫚油價格為每噸 4,000 馬來西亞林吉特時，但該地區大米價格也強勁，我們預計需求強勁。正如我所說，對於一個重要的標準等級市場來說，這肯定是 2024 年故事的一部分。

And if you look at the biodiesel mandate that's coming in 2025. And again, with strong prices, we expect that Southeast Asia for 2025 will continue to be an important part of the story on -- on the supply and demand balance, I think you make a good observation as well. When we talk about 2024, we call it more or less a balanced market, 70 million to 72 million tonnes and supply more or less meeting demand.

如果你看看 2025 年即將出台的生物柴油指令。當我們談論2024年時，我們稱之為或多或少的平衡市場，7000萬噸至7200萬噸，供應或多或少滿足需求。

As we -- as those volumes grow, as consumption demand grows into 2025 and for all the reasons we've talked about. We think that will -- we do see some potential tightening in the market. And that's because, as you say, if we look around, there could be some small incremental additions on the supply side, but we don't see much. And so when we've said that there's the potential for some firming in 2025. The reason we say that is exactly that. We expect a growth without incremental supply necessarily being added to meet that incremental demand.

隨著我們——隨著這些數量的增長，隨著消費需求的增長到 2025 年，以及我們所討論的所有原因。我們認為這將會——我們確實看到市場可能出現一些緊縮。這是因為，正如你所說，如果我們環顧四周，供應方面可能會出現一些小幅增量，但我們看不到太多。因此，當我們說 2025 年有可能出現一些堅挺時。我們預期成長不一定需要增加供應來滿足增量需求。

Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Question in nitrogen. One of your slides shows your -- I think the product inventory levels in nitrogen are at low levels as we go into the fall season. Curious what your anticipation is in the retail business in terms of what you want to do about that in terms of -- do you see this as an opportunistic time for you to build inventory and hold it through the winter? Or do you still intend to exit the fall season with kind of empty bins?

氮氣問題。你的一張幻燈片顯示了你的——我認為當我們進入秋季時，氮產品庫存水平處於較低水平。好奇你對零售業務的期望是什麼，以及你想做什麼——你認為這是一個機會主義的時機，讓你建立庫存並持有它度過冬天嗎？或者你仍然打算帶著空垃圾箱退出秋季嗎？

Yeah, I would say that what we're seeing in our retail businesses, there's nothing unusual and we do expect -- we do expect to head through the season here with inventories flow through our channel. But Jeff, do you want to talk about what you're seeing on the ground?

是的，我想說的是，我們在零售業務中看到的情況沒有什麼不尋常的，我們確實預計——我們確實預計在這個季節裡庫存將流經我們的渠道。但是傑夫，你想談談你在實地看到的情況嗎？

Yes. So first of all, I mean, we're seeing we're greatly encouraged by the activity we're seeing this fall. As Ken mentioned earlier, we've had very strong nutrient removal with really large crops, particularly in North America. -- from an inventory position, we like the position we're in. Right now, we came into the third quarter a little heavier than we would have been last year, but that's reflective of an early harvest and an early start to fall application.

是的。首先，我的意思是，我們看到今年秋天的活動極大地鼓舞了我們。正如肯之前提到的，我們對大面積作物進行了非常強烈的養分去除，特別是在北美。 - 從庫存狀況來看，我們喜歡我們所處的狀況。

And as it relates to nitrogen, we desperately needed some moisture across the Corn Belt. We got that area last week, and so we're I'm really encouraged by what we're kicking off across North America from an NH3 application standpoint. But mods are in retail, it's normally to buy what we need for the season ahead and not carry over into the year. And so I would like from a retail perspective to end the fall with low inventory levels.

由於它與氮有關，我們迫切需要玉米帶上的一些水分。我們上週到達了該地區，所以從 NH3 應用​​的角度來看，我們對北美地區啟動的計畫感到非常鼓舞。但模組是零售的，通常是為了購買下一季所需的東西，而不是延續到今年。因此，我希望從零售角度來看，以低庫存水準結束秋季。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

史蒂夫伯恩，美銀美林。

Ken, I wanted to drill a little bit into potash pricing. You've got -- you're looking for another couple of percent higher volumes in 2025. But your offshore price has been running almost $100 a tonne less than the North American price. It used to be closer to 30%. You get even Lukashenko complaining about potash pricing.

肯，我想深入了解鉀肥的定價。您希望 2025 年產量再增加幾個百分點。以前接近30%。連盧卡申科也會抱怨鉀肥定價。

My question for you, given your current role, your prior role in Canpotex, what is the value proposition to Nutrien to be part of Canpotex? You have one partner and the HP can't join it. Would you negotiate differently if you were on your own and not part of Canpotex?

我想問您的問題是，考慮到您目前的職位以及之前在 Canpotex 的職位，Nutrien 加入 Canpotex 的價值主張是什麼？您有一個合作夥伴，而 HP 無法加入。如果您獨自一人而不是 Canpotex 的一部分，您會以不同的方式進行談判嗎？

Yes, Steve, thanks for the question. And yes, there's a lot of impact there. But I'll just start by saying, in fact, to tomorrow, we are -- today, we're celebrating Nutrien 65 years of producing potash in Saskatchewan. We've been doing this for a long time. And for 55 of those years, we've been doing them with Canpotex. Canpotex said is established a customer base in the market in all these key regions that you can't reproduce and that comes with evolving relationships over that period of time.

是的，史蒂夫，謝謝你的提問。是的，那裡有很大的影響。但我首先要說的是，事實上，到明天，我們今天將慶祝 Nutrien 在薩斯喀徹溫省生產鉀肥 65 週年。我們已經這樣做很久了。其中 55 年，我們一直與 Canpotex 合作。 Canpotex 表示，在所有這些關鍵地區的市場上建立了無法複製的客戶群，並且隨著時間的推移，關係不斷發展。

Part of the value proposition for those customers is that -- they have access to all of these Saskatchewan mines, it's high quality, it's reliable and it's competitive. And so those relationships continue to be incredibly important to us. incredibly important to Canpotex. And behind that customer, we have built out a supply chain in this business to get volumes from landlock Saskatchewan, I keep saying to the jungles in Malaysia that supply chain doesn't exist anywhere on the planet.

這些客戶的部分價值主張是——他們可以使用薩斯喀徹溫省的所有礦山，這些礦山品質高、可靠且具有競爭力。因此，這些關係對我們來說仍然非常重要。對於 Canpotex 來說非常重要。在該客戶的背後，我們在這項業務中建立了一條供應鏈，從內陸薩斯喀徹溫省獲得產量，我一直對馬來西亞的叢林說，供應鏈在地球上的任何地方都不存在。

So there's just so much infrastructure, so many relationships, so much history and a history of good commerce, good trade with these customers. that as we look to move our volumes, Canpotex has been just an extraordinary partnership, and it has taken us into new markets over 40 countries around the world. And obviously, we've always been competitive. So I think that I think Canpotex offers us a lot, Steve.

因此，這裡有如此多的基礎設施、如此多的關係、如此多的歷史以及與這些客戶進行良好商業、良好貿易的歷史。當我們尋求擴大銷售時，Canpotex 一直是一個非凡的合作夥伴，它帶領我們進入了全球 40 多個國家的新市場。顯然，我們一直都具有競爭力。所以我認為 Canpotex 為我們提供了很多，史蒂夫。

What I would say is we look into the future now we have seen trade flows that have been imbalanced in certain parts of the world in light of the conflicts in Eastern Europe, even some impact perhaps on what's happening in the Middle East.

我想說的是，我們展望未來，現在我們看到，由於東歐的衝突，世界某些地區的貿易流動已經不平衡，甚至可能對中東正在發生的事情產生一些影響。

So yes, you do have markets like Brazil that are easier for global producers to get to at the moment that -- so we have seen volumes going to Brazil. And you see the impact on price, which creates the delta between that market and markets that might be more difficult to get to I think as these trade flows normalize as we look at a stable supply-demand balance in 2024.

所以，是的，目前確實有像巴西這樣的市場，全球生產商更容易進入——所以我們已經看到巴西的產量。你會看到對價格的影響，這會在該市場和可能更難進入的市場之間產生三角洲，我認為隨著這些貿易流動正常化，我們預計 2024 年將實現穩定的供需平衡。

As we look at potential firming into 2025, now we look at the role in Canpotex is going to play in all that. That's where we say with demand growing, maybe outpacing supply it in 2025 and even beyond. And so that's where we say opportunity for some additional tightening firming here in price. But of course, Canpotex is going to continue to be playing a significant role in getting our volumes around the world.

當我們展望 2025 年的潛在堅挺時，現在我們來看看 Canpotex 將在這一切中發揮的作用。這就是我們所說的需求成長的情況，可能會在 2025 年甚至更長時間內超過供應。因此，這就是我們所說的價格進一步緊縮的機會。當然，Canpotex 將繼續在我們的產品銷往世界各地方面發揮重要作用。

Jacob Bout from CIBC Capital Markets

CIBC 資本市場的雅各布布特

Question on retail. Second quarter here, you trended your 24 retail guidance despite a pretty large comp coming off in the U.S. Curious, what would your view of normalized retail EBITDA would be in a $4 corn price environment?

關於零售的問題。第二季度，儘管美國的業績相當大，但您還是對 24 月份的零售指引進行了趨勢分析。

Jacob, and we have a number of things that we talk about at the moment that a few headwinds in our downstream business and in North America would be, as we've talked about our wet May, as we've talked about the ideal growing conditions here in the third quarter that led to less pest pressure and less overall field activity. That's true. But I would say the bigger story is Brazil and the ongoing work that we're doing to recover both with the market and certainly with our business in Brazil. But I'll hand it over to Jeff to provide some color around all of that.

雅各布，我們目前正在談論很多事情，我們的下游業務和北美將面臨一些阻力，正如我們談論了潮濕的五月，正如我們談論了理想的生長一樣第三季度的情況導致害蟲壓力減少，整體田間活動減少。這是真的。但我想說，更大的故事是巴西，以及我們為恢復市場以及我們在巴西的業務而正在進行的工作。但我會把它交給傑夫，讓他為所有這些提供一些色彩。

Yes. Thanks. And look, our guide down in the third quarter was more a reflection of what occurred in the third quarter than what we expect going forward in the fourth quarter. As Ken mentioned just a minute ago, regardless of the oil price. Brazil has been a headwind again this year. We expect more recovery there. in that market than we've seen year-to-date. North America and Australia have performed really well, in my opinion, in '24. And so we expect earnings growth next year just by stabilizing things in Brazil.

是的。謝謝。看，我們第三季的指引更反映了第三季發生的情況，而不是我們對第四季未來的預期。正如肯剛剛提到的，無論油價如何。巴西今年再次遭遇逆風。我們預計那裡會出現更多復甦。該市場的規模比我們今年迄今所看到的要大。我認為，北美和澳洲在 24 年表現非常好。因此，我們預計明年的獲利成長只需穩定巴西的局勢即可。

Going forward, we expect earnings growth that we've talked quite a bit at Investor Day about our strategic actions around the LPI and how we want to expand our margins in that area as well. And I also think that we had some things that we missed this year. We talked about low field activity in the third quarter. Some of that's related to some applications that we actually missed in the spring with a cold and delay planning for corn.

展望未來，我們預計盈利會成長，我們在投資者日上已經多次討論了我們圍繞 LPI 的戰略行動以及我們希望如何擴大該領域的利潤率。我還認為今年我們錯過了一些事情。我們談到了第三季現場活動的低迷。其中一些與一些應用程式有關，我們實際上在春季因寒冷而錯過了一些應用程式並延遲了玉米計劃。

And we think those things will come back to us. We thought we'd get a bit more of it in the third quarter, but our ideal weather conditions really led to extremely little best pressure at low trips across the field for our growers. And so we think those things will come back to us next year.

我們認為這些東西會回到我們身邊。我們原以為我們會在第三季度獲得更多，但我們理想的天氣條件確實導致我們的種植者在田間低行程時幾乎沒有最佳壓力。所以我們認為這些東西明年就會回到我們身邊。

Edlain Rodriguez from Mizuho Securities.

瑞穗證券的艾德蘭·羅德里格斯。

Just one quick question on retail in Brazil. I mean the former there should be heard in a little bit. There's like a lot of disruption in the marketplace in terms of people going back up, does that create medium-term or long-term opportunities for you in terms of retail acquisitions, given that it's a long-term attractive market over there?

這是一個關於巴西零售業的簡單問題。我的意思是前者應該稍後會聽到。就人們的回歸而言，市場出現了很多混亂，考慮到那裡是一個長期有吸引力的市場，這是否會在零售收購方面為您創造中期或長期的機會？

Thanks for the question, Edlain. So we -- our focus at the moment in Brazil is on our current core business. And the things that we've talked about by stabilizing the business. And I would say today that, that is our exclusive focus.

謝謝你的提問，艾德蘭。因此，我們目前在巴西的重點是我們目前的核心業務。以及我們透過穩定業務所討論的事情。今天我要說的是，這是我們的獨家關注點。

So when we talk about rationalizing some infrastructure, some unproductive infrastructure like lenders like some selling locations. When we talk about optimizing our cost footprint from a human resourcing perspective in light of some of the challenges in Brazil.

因此，當我們談論合理化某些基礎設施時，一些非生產性基礎設施（例如貸款人）就像一些銷售地點。當我們考慮巴西面臨的一些挑戰時，從人力資源的角度討論優化我們的成本足跡。

We talked about focusing on inventory and inventory management, bringing down working capital levels. Those things are all in flight. It's an extraordinary amount of effort in Brazil at the moment, and that is our exclusive focus.

我們討論了專注於庫存和庫存管理，降低營運資金水準。這些東西都在飛行中。目前在巴西，這是一項非凡的努力，也是我們唯一的焦點。

And we've talked about working through all of that through 2025. We think that for the work that's taking place, that's going to continue through 2025. And then among all that, continuing to focus on proprietary products and growing our proprietary business, which that's for our future for the sell certainly that's going to be a core part of it as we see opportunity there with our agrochem business.

我們已經討論了到 2025 年完成所有這些工作。未來的銷售，當然這將成為其中的核心部分，因為我們看到了農化業務的機會。

So it's a long way of saying our focus today, we're not looking at expanding in this environment. We're looking at and focusing on our current business.

因此，從長遠來看，我們今天的重點是，我們不考慮在這種環境下擴張。我們正在關注並專注於我們目前的業務。

Richard Garchitorena from Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的理查德·加奇托雷納。

So my question is another strong quarter of potash sales volume this quarter. Despite a short rail strike. You raised the guidance this year to 13.5 million to 13.9 million. But obviously, the third quarter run rate would imply over 16 million potential annualized production. So that's well above the 14 million to 15 million target that you gave for 2023 on your Investor Day.

所以我的問題是本季鉀肥銷售又一個強勁的季度。儘管有短暫的鐵路罷工。您將今年的指導人數上調至 1,350 萬至 1,390 萬。但顯然，第三季的運行率意味著潛在的年化產量將超過 1,600 萬輛。因此，這遠高於您在投資者日設定的 2023 年 1400 萬至 1500 萬的目標。

So my question is, are you currently at that operational capability rate at this time to get to that 14 million to 15 million. Could you produce that if the market demand was there for it? You mentioned that you expect demand growing in 2025 for potash and don't really see many other supply coming on in other regions. So would you be the one company that could potentially meet that demand?

所以我的問題是，你們目前的作戰能力是否能夠達到 1400 萬到 1500 萬。如果市場有需求，你能生產嗎？您提到，您預計 2025 年鉀肥需求將會成長，但其他地區並沒有看到太多其他供應。那麼您會是唯一一家有可能滿足這項需求的公司嗎？

So I'll maybe start with your last question first and then work back from there, Richard. Yes, we can meet growing demand. And we've talked about our ability to produce 15 million tons in that we need to do between now and then is bring on people very high operates. And if you look at our guidance range today, we would say that the capacity and our complement of operators at our 6-line network has been built for exactly those types, our guidance range and not beyond, we don't want people standing around at our operations.

所以我可能會先從你的最後一個問題開始，然後從那裡開始回答，理查德。是的，我們可以滿足不斷增長的需求。我們已經談到了我們生產 1500 萬噸的能力，因為從現在到那時我們需要做的是提高人們的工作效率。如果你看看我們今天的指導範圍，我們會說，我們 6 線網路的運營商的容量和補充正是針對這些類型而構建的，我們的指導範圍而不是超出，我們不希望人們站在周圍在在我們的營運中。

So yes, we get to 5 million tonnes, we need to hire some people. It's always the case that on any given day, on any given month, we might be producing above what appears to be a 15 million tonne annualized rate. But when you take those daily or monthly and annualize them, it's going -- it's not representative of what we can do in the year that it's just related to what's happening in a particular mine, how maintenance turnarounds fit into the schedule. We have some high days in our business where we're in good ground, and everything is working well, but we'll have today's where we'll hit anomalous ground and you will see probably a run rate there would be less than our 14 million tons of capacity.

所以是的，我們達到 500 萬噸，我們需要雇用一些人。情況總是如此，在任何一天、任何一個月，我們的年產量可能會高於 1,500 萬噸。但是，當你每天或每月將這些數據進行年度化時，它並不代表我們在這一年中可以做的事情，它只與特定礦山發生的情況以及維護週轉如何適應時間表有關。我們的業務有一些高峰期，我們處於良好的基礎，一切都運作良好，但今天我們將遇到異常的情況，你會看到那裡的運作率可能會低於我們的 14萬噸產能。

So it's not a case of looking at those days or months and annualizing them. What we see today is what's true and that is capacity has been built to meet to meet the needs of our global customers at kind of 19% and 20% market share that we talk about often. And that, yes, we could certainly expand our volumes to 15 million tonnes on people and we can do that on equipment.

因此，這不是查看那些日子或月份並將其年化的情況。我們今天看到的是事實，那就是我們已經建立了產能，以滿足我們經常談論的 19% 和 20% 市場份額的全球客戶的需求。是的，我們當然可以將人員產量擴大到 1500 萬噸，我們也可以透過設備做到這一點。

Chris Parkinson of Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究中心的克里斯·帕金森。

Just a quick question on your perspective on nitrogen supply dynamics. Just when you take a step back, I mean, there's one school of thought that's concerned by oversupply just given the number of MOUs and kind of project concepts, I'll call them things out of Russia, which I personally think is wrong, but it is what it is. And then the other school of thought is looking at higher costs, a lot of maintenance bills coming out in Europe, CBAM in Europe, and potential further rationalization.

只是簡單問一下您對氮氣供應動態的看法。當你退後一步時，我的意思是，有一種思想流派擔心供應過剩，只是考慮到諒解備忘錄的數量和項目概念的種類，我將它們稱為俄羅斯的東西，我個人認為這是錯誤的，但是就是這樣。另一種觀點則著眼於更高的成本、歐洲出現的大量維護費用、歐洲的 CBAM 以及潛在的進一步合理化。

So as you sit here today, even versus a couple of quarters ago, kind of what are your core puts and takes in terms of how you're thinking about that business over the next, let's say, three to five years?

因此，當您今天坐在這裡時，即使與幾個季度前相比，您對未來（比如說三到五年）業務的看法是什麼？

Yes, great question, Chris, and I'll say a couple of things and pass it over to Chris Reynolds. But if it's on the clean ammonia side of the industry and the number of announcements that we've seen on prognosticated new plant.

是的，很好的問題，克里斯，我會說幾句話並將其傳遞給克里斯雷諾茲。但如果是在業界的清潔氨方面，以及我們在預測的新工廠上看到的公告數量。

As we've looked at those announcements that if we look at the evolution of the potential there and our own experiences with looking at clean ammonia, we would say that we don't see speculative new plant being built being green led and right now, it's a question about really the pacing of the energy transition and how you would then in behind that pace, the clean ammonia complex and what kind of risk you'd be willing to take in a market that you might be able to grab a premium on the energy side of the business.

當我們看到這些公告時，如果我們看看那裡的潛力的演變以及我們自己在清潔氨方面的經驗，我們會說我們沒有看到正在建造的投機性新工廠是綠色主導的，現在，這實際上是一個關於能源轉型步伐的問題，以及您將如何跟上這一步伐、清潔​​氨聯合體以及您願意在一個可能能夠獲得溢價的市場中承擔什麼樣的風險業務的能源方面。

That's still evolving and timing of all of that is still very unclear. So again, do we expect any new plant to be backed by some form of offtake or some form of bankable contract that gives you the confidence to delay the capital. And indeed, it seems to be playing out that way. If we look at the industry and the nitrogen complexes as it is today across the various nitrogen products. We don't see a lot of build a new plant that's been deployed, especially on some of the downstream products.

這仍在不斷發展，所有這一切的時間安排仍然非常不清楚。那麼，我們是否期望任何新工廠都會得到某種形式的承購或某種形式的可融資合約的支持，讓您有信心推遲資本。事實上，事情似乎正在這樣發展。如果我們看看今天的行業和氮複合物，包括各種氮產品。我們沒有看到太多建造已部署的新工廠，特別是在一些下游產品上。

But Chris, maybe you want to provide a little bit more color on the sort of supply-demand balance in nitrogen how you see that evolving?

但是克里斯，也許你想提供更多關於氮的供需平衡的信息，你認為這種情況是如何演變的？

Yes. Thanks, Ken. Chris, yes, and as Ken said, if we break it down by supply and demand and icon market and how we see the next couple of years. On the demand side, it's been pleasing to see that the trends have returned about compound annual growth rate globally. So -- and that's been fairly consistent over the years.

是的。謝謝，肯。克里斯，是的，正如肯所說，如果我們按供需和圖標市場以及我們如何看待未來幾年來細分它。在需求方面，令人高興的是全球複合年增長率的趨勢已經恢復。所以——多年來這一直相當一致。

And then you look specifically in examples like in China today that urea consumption there on the ground. As I said earlier, we're good folks there this week has grown by 14% year-over-year, taking apparent consumption to 60 million tonnes of urea. So the Chinese government remains very focused on domestic agricultural production there. And similarly around the world, whether it's Brazil or India, some good steady growth on the demand side.

然後你具體看看今天中國的尿素消費量。正如我之前所說，本週尿素的表觀消費量年增 14%，達到 6,000 萬噸。因此，中國政府仍然非常關注國內農業生產。同樣，在世界各地，無論是巴西還是印度，需求方面都出現了良好的穩定成長。

And then on the supply side, what we're watching, obviously, is what's happening in Europe and those natural gas prices, we would probably mentioned that the last couple of winters in Europe have not been too bad. But if we get a harsh winter in Europe, those natural gas inventories could be quickly depleted and you could see that price move even higher. And we've seen some production curtailments there. as a result. And then as Ken alluded to, some delays in new production coming online has kept this market fairly well balanced.

然後在供應方面，我們顯然正在關注歐洲正在發生的事情和天然氣價格，我們可能會提到歐洲過去幾個冬天的情況還不錯。但如果歐洲遭遇嚴冬，這些天然氣庫存可能很快就會耗盡，你可能會看到價格進一步上漲。我們在那裡看到了一些減產。因此。然後，正如肯所提到的，新產品上線的一些延遲使這個市場保持了相當平衡。

But on top of all of that is our position here in North America with low-cost gas, both in the U.S. and Canada and the advantaged locations of those planes, particularly in land in the US which we like. So I would say, again, as we look out over the next three to four to five years, feeling good about the market.

但最重要的是我們在北美的地位，在美國和加拿大擁有低成本天然氣，以及這些飛機的有利位置，特別是在我們喜歡的美國陸地上。所以我想說，當我們展望未來三到四到五年時，我們對市場感覺良好。

Benjamin Theurer from Barclays Capital, Inc.

巴克萊資本公司的班傑明·特雷爾

This is Rahi filling in for Ben from Barclays. My question was kind of on geopolitical issues. Any updates on how it's impacting fertilizer shipments? Is it still just a hit towards like shipment costs? Or are there any quantity of volumes impacted? And how is the update on Red Sea shipment process just kind of on an overall fertilizer market view?

我是拉希 (Rahi) 接替巴克萊銀行 (Barclays) 的本 (Ben)。我的問題是關於地緣政治問題。關於它如何影響化肥運輸的任何更新？它仍然只是對類似運輸成本的打擊嗎？或有多少數量受到影響？紅海運輸流程的更新對整個肥料市場的看法有何影響？

Yes. No, a lot going on in the world, obviously, and some geopolitical events that are impacting our business. If we look at the war and Eastern Europe, what we would say and have talked about is the fact that those volumes, for the most part, are getting to three content flows of those export volumes. It's probably all true with the exception perhaps of the Belarusians who continue to struggle getting access to port capacity in a cost-effective way.

是的。不，顯然，世界上正在發生很多事情，一些地緣政治事件正在影響我們的業務。如果我們看看戰爭和東歐，我們會說和談論的是這樣一個事實：這些數量在很大程度上達到了這些出口量的三個內容流。這可能都是真的，但白俄羅斯人除外，他們繼續努力以具有成本效益的方式獲得港口容量。

It's absolutely the case that those suppliers and particularly Belarus, probably struggling with cost to serve as well as they send shipments via rail across Russia and into the north of China, where -- we know that on a landed basis, that's probably putting all-in costs for the Belarusian $270, $280 a tonne. So that's -- those are definitely challenges in light of this conflict in Eastern Europe.

絕對是這樣的情況，這些供應商，尤其是白俄羅斯，可能正在努力解決服務成本問題，並且他們通過鐵路將貨物運送到俄羅斯和中國北部，我們知道，從到岸的角度來看，這可能會導致所有-白俄羅斯的成本為每噸270美元、280美元。鑑於東歐的這場衝突，這些絕對是挑戰。

But some of those challenges are going to persist for a bit yet. But as those volumes find their way into the market, some rebalancing trade flows that we've talked about, that really were obviously finding a home for our volumes with our customers as well. And that has been the case right through all of this turmoil.

但其中一些挑戰仍將持續一段時間。但隨著這些交易量進入市場，我們已經討論過的一些貿易流量的再平衡，顯然也為我們與客戶的交易量找到了歸宿。在所有這些動盪中，情況都是如此。

On the Red Sea, I think it's fair to say that our colleagues at ICO and APL have found alternative routes. And so the challenges through the Red Sea that ICL has experienced from a continuous experience that they found alternative growth through the Mediterranean. So we're seeing ICL volumes come into the market as well, which is good. And those trade flows relatively balanced as well.

在紅海，我認為可以公平地說，我們 ICO 和 APL 的同事已經找到了替代路線。因此，ICL 所經歷的紅海挑戰來自於他們透過地中海找到替代成長的持續經驗。因此，我們看到 ICL 也大量進入市場，這是一件好事。這些貿易流量也相對平衡。

But those -- we'll continue to watch these things very, very closely because -- as you say, it had impacts on trade flows. Some respects continues to do certainly has raised the cost to serve for the industry and therefore, the overall cost bases for the industry and as conflicts of all, we'll continue to watch that.

但是，我們將繼續非常非常密切地關注這些事情，因為正如你所說，它對貿易流動產生了影響。某些方面的持續做肯定會提高該行業的服務成本，因此，該行業的整體成本基礎以及所有衝突，我們將繼續關注。

Joshua Spector from UBS.

瑞銀集團的約書亞‧斯佩克特。

Yeah, this is Lucas Momentfor Josh. So just going back to nitrogen. So you've sort of taken your shipment volumes down a little bit for this year. Obviously, due to some specific facts there. But I was just wondering if you can kind of give us your latest thoughts and frame how you're thinking about the incremental uplift into next year and then the pathway to your 11.5 million to 12 million targets in 2026?

是的，這是喬許的盧卡斯時刻。所以回到氮氣。因此，你們今年的出貨量有所下降。顯然，這是由於一些具體事實造成的。但我只是想知道您是否可以向我們提供您的最新想法，並說明您如何考慮明年的增量提升，以及實現 2026 年 1150 萬至 1200 萬目標的途徑？

Yes. No, good. Thanks, Josh. Yes, we've had some weather-related effects this year. We've had some extended turnarounds power outage that power supplier and our Fort Saskatchewan facility Alberta unexpected for us and some mechanical you see put that all together. And yes, we're just a little bit below where we had expected to be this year. That said, heading into 2025 and beyond. We talked about our 11.5 million tonne at 2026. Investor Day target and 11.5 million with Trinidad operating on natural gas, it would be 12 million tonnes.

是的。不，很好。謝謝，喬許。是的，今年我們受到了一些與天氣相關的影響。我們經歷了一些長時間的停電，電力供應商和我們的艾伯塔省薩斯喀徹溫堡工廠對我們來說是意想不到的，你看到的一些機械裝置將所有這些都放在一起。是的，我們今年的表現只是略低於預期。也就是說，進入 2025 年及以後。我們談到了 2026 年 1150 萬噸的目標。

But I'll hand it over to Trevor Williams to give us the breakdown on where we're going to get those new volumes and how we get from here to there.

但我會把它交給特雷弗威廉斯（Trevor Williams），讓他詳細說明我們將在哪裡獲得這些新書以及我們如何從這裡到那裡。

Yes, just a couple of thoughts here. If I look back and just compare to 2023, we're approximately 200,000 tons ahead year-over-year versus out last year. And then be normalized out over our turnaround, which is a very heavy year this year of almost 300,000 that's on a normalized basis. Obviously, this is a result of some of the improvements that we talked about that we announced last year in order in Trinidad.

是的，這裡只是一些想法。如果我回顧一下並與 2023 年進行比較，我們將比去年同期領先約 20 萬噸。然後在我們的周轉中實現正常化，今年是非常沉重的一年，在正常化的基礎上有近 30 萬人。顯然，這是我們去年在特立尼達宣布的一些改進的結果。

As Ken alluded to, is on a full year basis this year, we had several externally related outages across the quarter. And in addition to that, a couple of turnarounds that to go a little bit longer. Now this has been one of our heaviest turnaround years that we've had for quite a while, with 4 major turnaround executed here in '24 with one wrapping up here in Trinidad here in the last quarter.

正如肯所提到的，就今年全年而言，我們整個季度發生了幾次與外部相關的中斷。除此之外，還有一些週轉時間會更長一些。現在，這是我們相當長一段時間以來最重大的周轉年份之一，24 年在這裡執行了 4 次重大周轉，其中一次在上個季度在特立尼達完成。

But as Ken said, as we look forward to our Investor Day target and above. There's really three components there. There's continued reliability improvements across the fleet, there's about 300,000 tonnes in terms of what we look out there. with debottlenecks that will be completed in '23 and while we have scheduled for 24 and 25 as the order of about 300,000 tonnes there as well.

但正如肯所說，我們期待投資者日目標及以上目標。那裡實際上包含三個組件。整個船隊的可靠性持續提高，據我們觀察，大約有 30 萬噸。消除瓶頸將於 23 年完成，而我們也計劃在 24 和 25 完成，訂單量約為 30 萬噸。

And then finally, as Ken mentioned, we have about 500,000 tonnes in terms of what we're doing with respect to Trinidad in terms of gas improvement.

最後，正如 Ken 所提到的，我們在特立尼達進行的天然氣改進工作約有 50 萬噸。

But with that, the one thing that we'll call out as an example is that if you look in 2023, we utilized about 82% of our gas that was available to us in 2023. In 2024, we're protected right now, we're going to be between 93% and 94% of the gas available utilized. And that's really the result of our three out of four strategy that we put in place late last year.

但我們要舉的例子是，如果你看看 2023 年，我們使用了 2023 年可用天然氣的約 82%。這確實是我們去年年底實施的四分之三策略的結果。

Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

來自傑富瑞集團的勞倫斯·亞歷山大。

This is actually Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. So you achieved your cost-cutting goals early and are expected to be achieved in 2025. Would that suggest that maybe you can kind of expand the goal that there's more that can be done as we push into '26 and '27? I guess that would be my question.

這其實是勞倫斯的丹·里佐。因此，您很早就實現了成本削減目標，預計將在 2025 年實現。我想這就是我的問題。

Yes. No, absolutely. And yes, we have been incredibly focused on our cost base and as we talked about at Investor Day, we had -- looking in through '25, '26, we did see an opportunity to reduce SG&A, both in our retail business and our corporate functions by -- as we said, we're ahead of schedule on that. Again, and as we continue to look at that cost base, we do see some potential for additional savings. We're working on that at the moment.

是的。不，絕對是。是的，我們非常關注我們的成本基礎，正如我們在投資者日談到的那樣，我們在 25 年和 26 年期間確實看到了減少 SG&A 的機會，無論是在我們的零售業務還是我們的正如我們所說，我們在這方面提前了。同樣，當我們繼續關注該成本基礎時，我們確實看到了一些額外節省的潛力。我們目前正在努力解決這個問題。

At the moment, yes, we have confidence in specific tubing that $200 million and now achieving it earlier that we talked about. And we're always looking at the opportunity to continue to optimize refined costs, keep ourselves as a low-cost producer and competitive in everything that we do.

目前，是的，我們對價值 2 億美元的特定管材充滿信心，現在已經實現了我們之前提到的目標。我們一直在尋找機會繼續優化精煉成本，保持低成本生產商的地位，並在我們所做的一切事情上保持競爭力。

Aron Ceccarelli from Berenberg.

來自貝倫貝格的阿倫·切卡雷利 (Aron Ceccarelli)。

Earlier this week, we got some comments from Belarus' President Lukashenko, on a potential combined 10% production cut with Russia I was wondering how credible are these comments in your view, considering these guys are low-cost producers and don't really need to cut production? And my second question is on ag retail, specifically on seeds.

本週早些時候，我們收到了白俄羅斯總統盧卡申科關於與俄羅斯可能聯合減產10% 的一些評論，我想知道您認為這些評論的可信度如何，考慮到這些人是低成本生產商，而且其實不需要減產？我的第二個問題是關於農業零售，特別是種子。

If I look at your sales and seeds declined 16% in Q3, but the gross margin dollar terms collapsed to 4 million tonnes -- or to $4 million. So I wanted to understand how much of this should continue into Q4? Or it was just a one-off for Q3?

如果我看看你們的銷售額，第三季種子下降了 16%，但以美元計算的毛利率卻暴跌至 400 萬噸，即 400 萬美元。所以我想了解其中有多少應該持續到第四季？或者這只是第三季的一次性事件？

Good. Thanks for the questions. Yes, Belarus, DBC, we saw that announcement as well. We don't speculate on those sorts of things I think you would want to talk to them. and understand better what the plan is there.

好的。感謝您的提問。是的，白俄羅斯，DBC，我們也看到了這個公告。我們不會猜測這類事情，我認為您會想與他們交談。並且更了解計劃是什麼。

All I would say is we've talked about this impact of shifting trade flows and the challenges perhaps in that part of the world are not getting access to efficient and nearby tidewater and that raising the global cost curve as a result.

我想說的是，我們已經討論了貿易流量變化的影響，而世界該地區面臨的挑戰可能是無法獲得高效且附近的潮水，從而導致全球成本曲線上升。

So the cost of service gone up that's clear. And probably will continue to be the case as those producers look for port capacity, like I say, that is nearby.

因此，服務成本的上升是顯而易見的。隨著這些生產商尋找附近的港口容量，情況可能會繼續如此。

So won't speculate on anything that any prognostications were is coming out of the press in that part of the world, you'd have to talk to them. But what we would say is, yes, we do see that for both in terms of inflationary pressures on the industry, probably added $50 a tonne. And then for certain producers who are having challenges probably could be another $50 a tonne on the cost curve. And then the second question as it relates to retail and seed, I'll pass that over to Mr. Tarsi.

因此，不要猜測世界那個地區媒體的任何預測，你必須與他們交談。但我們要說的是，是的，我們確實看到，就行業的通膨壓力而言，每噸可能增加 50 美元。然後，對於某些面臨挑戰的生產商來說，成本曲線上可能會再增加 50 美元/噸。第二個問題與零售和種子有關，我將把它轉給塔西先生。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. And Yes. So the third quarter is a small quarter for us, we see as it relates to the margin reduction in the third quarter. Latin America is the primary driver was a reduction as it relates to see margins for quarter 3. This is due to unfavorable weather conditions, which caused production challenges and compressed margins for us in that region, and we do consider that to be a onetime event.

是的。謝謝，肯。是的。因此，第三季度對我們來說是一個小季度，我們認為這與第三季度的利潤率下降有關。拉丁美洲是主要驅動因素，因為它與第三季的利潤率有關。一次性事件。

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. So I will now turn the call back to Jeff Holzman for closing remarks.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。現在，我將把電話轉回給傑夫·霍爾茲曼（Jeff Holzman），讓他發表結束語。

Okay. Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available if you have any follow-up questions. Have a great day.

好的。感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，可以聯絡投資者關係團隊。祝你有美好的一天。