Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2024 second-quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Holzman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在，我想將電話會議交給投資者關係副總裁傑夫霍爾茲曼 (Jeff Holzman)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning. Welcome to Nutrien's second-quarter 2024 Earnings Call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts.

謝謝您，接線生。早安.歡迎參加 Nutrien 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。在我們進行此電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計畫和前景所做的各種陳述都包含前瞻性資訊。在得出這些結論和預測時應用了某些假設。

Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form. I'll now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO; and Pedro Farah, our CFO, for opening comments.

因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性資訊中的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的更多資訊包含在我們向股東提交的季度報告以及我們最新的年度報告、管理層討論與分析 (MD&A) 和年度資訊表中。現在，我將把電話轉給 Nutrien 總裁兼執行長 Ken Seitz 和我們的財務長 Pedro Farah，請他們發表開場評論。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. Nutrien just delivered adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 billion in the first half of 2024, supported by increased crop input margins, strong global potash demand and lower operating rate costs. Our upstream fertilizer production assets and downstream retail business in North America and Australia have performed well in 2024, demonstrating our advantages across the ag value chain. The operating environment in Brazil has remained more challenged, and we will discuss today the actions we are taking to stabilize our business in this market.

早安.感謝您今天加入我們。由於農作物投入利潤率的提高、全球鉀肥需求的強勁以及營運成本的降低，Nutrien 在 2024 年上半年的調整後 EBITDA 剛剛達到 33 億美元。2024年，我們在北美和澳洲的上游化肥生產資產和下游零售業務表現良好，彰顯了我們在整個農業價值鏈中的優勢。巴西的經營環境仍面臨更多挑戰，今天我們將討論我們為穩定該市場業務所採取的行動。

In Potash, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $1 billion in the first half of 2024, which was down from the prior year due to lower benchmark prices. We increased potash production across our 6-mine network, and lowered our controllable cash cost of production to $53 per tonne in the first half. The reduction in per tonne costs was driven by higher production volumes and supported by the benefits of mine automation investments. We sold record potash volumes in the first half, utilizing the advantages of our global supply chain to respond to increased demand from our customers in North America and offshore markets. In Nitrogen, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion in the first half of 2024, as lower benchmark prices were partially offset by lower natural gas costs.

在鉀肥領域，我們在 2024 年上半年實現了 10 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，由於基準價格較低，較上年有所下降。我們提高了 6 個礦場網路的鉀肥產量，並在上半年將可控制現金生產成本降低至每噸 53 美元。每噸成本的降低是由於產量增加以及礦山自動化投資的好處。我們利用全球供應鏈的優勢，在上半年銷售了創紀錄的鉀肥，以滿足北美和海外​​市場客戶日益增長的需求。在氮氣領域，我們在 2024 年上半年實現了 11 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，因為較低的基準價格被較低的天然氣成本部分抵消。

Our North American nitrogen assets remain very well positioned on the global cost curve, and we continue to progress reliability initiatives that contributed to higher operating rates. Nitrogen selling prices in the second quarter increased compared to the first quarter of the year, reflecting the advantages of our extensive North American distribution network and the strong execution of our commercial team. Phosphate fertilizer markets remained relatively firm through the first half of 2024, and we benefited from lower raw material input costs. Our phosphate sales volumes were consistent with the prior year as we had extended turnaround activity at our Aurora and White Springs plants in both periods. Retail adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.2 billion in the first half of 2024, up 17% from the prior year, driven by increased gross margin across all major product lines.

我們的北美氮氣資產在全球成本曲線上仍處於非常有利的位置，我們將繼續推動有助於提高營運率的可靠性措施。第二季氮氣銷售價格較今年第一季上漲，反映了我們廣泛的北美分銷網絡的優勢以及我們商業團隊的強大執行力。2024 年上半年磷肥市場保持相對堅挺，我們受惠於原料投入成本的降低。我們的磷酸鹽銷售量與前一年持平，因為我們在兩個時期都延長了奧羅拉和白泉工廠的周轉活動。2024 年上半年零售調整後 EBITDA 總額達 12 億美元，較上年增長 17%，這得益於所有主要產品線的毛利率提高。

Crop nutrient sales volumes were similar to the prior year as planting delays in May offset the benefits of an early start to the application season in the first quarter. Crop nutrient margins increased by $21 per tonne in the first half, supported by the stabilization of fertilizer markets and a lower cost inventory position compared to the prior year. Crop protection margins in North America returned to normalized levels, while wet weather in May impacted applications and shifted some demand into the third quarter. We ended the second quarter with retail crop protection inventory down 17% compared to the prior year. The majority of this reduction occurred in our Latin American operations where we are focused on tightly managing inventory and working capital levels.

作物營養素銷售與去年相似，因為五月種植延遲抵消了第一季施用季節提前開始帶來的好處。受化肥市場穩定和成本庫存水準較上年下降的影響，上半年作物養分利潤率上漲了每噸 21 美元。北美作物保護利潤率恢復到正常水平，而五月的潮濕天氣影響了應用，並將部分需求轉移到第三季。截至第二季末，零售作物保護產品庫存與去年同期相比下降了 17%。大部分削減發生在我們的拉丁美洲業務中，我們在該業務中專注於嚴格管理庫存和營運資金水準。

Overall, we are pleased with the first half performance of our North American and Australian retail businesses. Excluding the impacts of delayed planting in North America, our results were in line with our previous expectations. Now turning to Brazil, where we have seen more persistent challenges. As outlined at our Investor Day in June, we are accelerating a margin improvement plan focused on further reducing operating costs and rationalizing our footprint to optimize cash flow. This included the decision to curtail three fertilizer blenders and close 21 selling locations in the second quarter.

整體而言，我們對北美和澳洲零售業務上半年的表現感到滿意。排除北美播種延遲的影響，我們的業績符合先前的預期。現在轉向巴西，我們看到了更持久的挑戰。正如我們在六月的投資者日所概述的那樣，我們正在加速實施利潤率改善計劃，重點是進一步降低營運成本並合理化我們的足跡以優化現金流。其中包括決定在第二季減少三家肥料攪拌機並關閉 21 個銷售點。

We continue to evaluate our commercial footprint in Brazil to further extract efficiencies and see opportunities to grow our proprietary products business. During the second quarter, we also incurred a loss on foreign currency derivatives in Brazil. We have taken actions to remediate this issue and are confident that these actions have addressed the matter going forward. Now turning to the market outlook for the remainder of 2024. Global grain stocks remain historically tight while favorable growing conditions have created an expectation for record US.

我們將繼續評估我們在巴西的商業足跡，以進一步提高效率並尋找發展專有產品業務的機會。第二季度，我們在巴西的外匯衍生性商品上也遭受了損失。我們已採取措施解決此問題，並相信這些措施已經解決了這個問題。現在來談談 2024 年剩餘時間的市場前景。全球糧食庫存仍處於歷史緊張水平，而有利的生長條件已為美國糧食產量創歷史新高創造了預期。

corn and soybean yields. Despite lower crop prices, demand for crop inputs in North America is expected to remain strong in the third quarter as growers aim to maintain optimal plant health and yield potential. We anticipate good affordability for potash and nitrogen will support fall application rates this year. Prospective soybean margins in Brazil are currently above 2023 levels supported by a weaker real. Brazilian soybean area is expected to increase by 1% to 3% in the upcoming planting season, and fertilizer demand is projected at approximately 46 million tonnes in 2024, in line with historical record levels.

玉米和大豆的產量。儘管農作物價格下跌，但由於種植者致力於保持最佳的植物健康和產量潛力，預計第三季北美對農作物投入品的需求仍將保持強勁。我們預計，鉀肥和氮肥的良好價格承受能力將支撐今年秋季的施用率。受雷亞爾走弱的支撐，巴西大豆的預期利潤率目前高於 2023 年的水準。預計即將到來的種植季節巴西大豆種植面積將增加1%至3%，預計2024年化肥需求量約4,600萬噸，與歷史最高水準一致。

We are seeing strong underlying consumption trends in most major potash markets in 2024 and raised our full year global potash shipment forecast to 69 million to 72 million tonnes. Update on our summer fill program in North America has been strong, which is supportive of granular grade demand in the third quarter. The settlement of potash contracts with China and India in July is expected to support demand in standard grade markets through the second half. Global nitrogen markets are being supported by steady demand and continued supply challenges in key producing regions, including the extension of Chinese urea export restrictions into the second half of 2024. US.

我們看到 2024 年大多數主要鉀肥市場的潛在消費趨勢強勁，並將全年全球鉀肥出貨量預測上調至 6,900 萬至 7,200 萬噸。我們在北美的夏季填充計劃進展強勁，這對第三季度的顆粒級需求起到了支撐作用。預計7月與中國和印度達成的鉀肥合約將支撐下半年標準級鉀肥市場的需求。全球氮肥市場受到主要產區穩定的需求和持續的供應挑戰的支撐，其中包括中國尿素出口限制延長至 2024 年下半年。我們。

nitrogen inventories were estimated to be below average levels entering the second half, and we have seen strong customer engagement on our summer fill programs in the third quarter. I will now turn it over to Pedro to provide more details on our full year 2024 guidance assumptions.

預計下半年氮氣庫存將低於平均水平，並且我們在第三季度看到客戶對夏季填充計劃的積極參與。現在我將把時間交給佩德羅，讓他提供有關我們 2024 年全年指導假設的更多詳細資訊。

Good morning. As Ken highlighted, we raised our outlook for global potash demand in 2024, increased our annual potash sales volume guidance to 13.2 to 13.8 million tonnes. Our sales volume range factors in the potash for a relative short duration Canadian rail strike in the second half of 2024. We expect strong North American potash shipments in the third quarter, and we are planning typical annual maintenance turnarounds with the majority occurring this year in the fourth quarter. In Nitrogen, we narrowed our annual sales volume guidance range to 10.7 to 11.1 million tonnes.

早安.正如肯所強調的，我們上調了對 2024 年全球鉀肥需求的預期，並將年度鉀肥銷售量預期上調至 1,320 萬噸至 1,380 萬噸。我們的銷售量範圍考慮了 2024 年下半年加拿大鐵路罷工相對較短的鉀肥需求。我們預計第三季北美鉀肥出貨量將強勁，我們計劃進行典型的年度維護週轉，其中大部分將在今年第四季進行。在氮氣方面，我們將年度銷售量指引縮小至 1,070 萬噸至 1,110 萬噸。

We expect higher year-over-year volumes in both the third and fourth quarter, supported by lower planned turnaround activity in the second half. Our phosphate sales volume guidance range was lower to 2.5 to 2.6 million tonnes, reflecting the impact of extended turnaround activity and delayed mine equipment moves. For retail, our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered to $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion. The primary driver is the expectation for a more moderate recovery in Brazilian retail earnings as well as the impact of delayed planting in North America in the second quarter. We have taken a number of strategic actions in Brazil, including the containment of blenders that will result in lower near-term earnings potential, but will optimize cash flow.

我們預計第三季和第四季的銷售量將年增，這得益於下半年計畫週轉活動減少。我們的磷酸鹽銷售量指導範圍下調至 250 萬噸至 260 萬噸，反映了延長週轉活動和延遲礦場設備移動的影響。對於零售業，我們全年調整後的 EBITDA 預期下調至 15 億美元至 17 億美元。主要驅動因素是巴西零售收益將出現更溫和的復甦，以及第二季北美播種延遲的影響。我們在巴西採取了一系列策略行動，包括遏制混合器，這將導致近期獲利潛力降低，但將優化現金流。

Capital expenditures were down 27% in the first half of 2024, and we maintained our full year CapEx guidance of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion. As mentioned at our Investor Day in June, our capital priorities are focused on initiatives that drive organic growth in retail and operational improvements in potash and nitrogen. The focus in retail is to further expand our proprietary products portfolio and drive network optimization. We are targeting a more than 10% annual growth rate in proprietary products gross margin, which is expected to be a significant contributor to our 2026 retail adjusted EBITDA target of $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion. The majority of planned investment capital in our fertilizer operations are related to mine automation projects in potash and the completion of low-cost brownfield expansions in nitrogen.

2024 年上半年資本支出下降了 27%，我們維持全年資本支出指引 22 億美元至 23 億美元。正如我們在六月的投資者日上提到的那樣，我們的資本重點集中在推動零售有機成長和鉀肥和氮肥營運改善的舉措上。零售業的重點是進一步擴大我們的專有產品組合併推動網路優化。我們的目標是專有產品毛利率的年增長率超過 10%，預計這將對我們 2026 年零售調整後 EBITDA 目標（19 億美元至 21 億美元）做出重大貢獻。我們化肥業務的大部分計劃投資資本都與鉀肥礦山自動化項目以及氮肥低成本棕地擴建的完成有關。

These investments support our 2026 target to increase fertilizer sales volume by 2 million to 3 million tonnes compared to 2023 levels, while improving the efficiency of our operations. I'll now turn it back to Ken.

這些投資支持我們實現 2026 年的目標，在 2023 年的基礎上將化肥銷量提高 200 萬至 300 萬噸，同時提高我們的營運效率。現在我將把話題轉回給肯。

Thanks, Pedro. Our results in the first half of 2024 highlighted the advantages of our world-class upstream production assets and downstream retail business in North America and Australia. We delivered record potash sales volumes, lowered our operating costs and improved retail margins. We continue to take actions to enhance the quality of our earnings and cash flow with a focus on improving our ability to serve growers in our core markets, maintain the low-cost position and reliability of our assets and position the company for growth. Finally, I would like to say a few words about the CFO transition that we announced yesterday.

謝謝，佩德羅。我們2024年上半年的業績凸顯了我們在北美和澳洲的世界一流的上游生產資產和下游零售業務的優勢。我們的鉀肥銷售量創下了歷史新高，降低了營運成本，並提高了零售利潤率。我們將繼續採取行動，提高獲利和現金流的質量，重點是提高我們為核心市場種植者提供服務的能力，保持低成本地位和資產的可靠性，並為公司的成長做好準備。最後，我想談談我們昨天宣布的財務長變動。

Mark Thompson will be moving into the CFO role on August 26. Mark has been with the company for 13 years and has held numerous executive and senior leadership positions, currently serving as our Chief Commercial Officer. He brings a strong track record of execution, proven financial and strategic acumen and in-depth knowledge of our business that will support the advancement of our strategic priorities and drive a focused approach to capital allocation. On behalf of the Nutrien team, I would also like to thank Pedro for his service and commitment to Nutrien over the last five years. To support the transition, Pedro will move into an Advisory role until the end of the year.

馬克湯普森 (Mark Thompson) 將於 8 月 26 日擔任財務長。馬克已在公司工作 13 年，擔任過多個行政和高級領導職務，目前擔任我們的首席商務官。他擁有出色的執行力、成熟的財務和策略敏銳度以及對我們業務的深入了解，這將支持我們推進策略重點並推動有針對性的資本配置方法。我還要代表 Nutrien 團隊感謝 Pedro 在過去五年為 Nutrien 所做的服務和承諾。為了支持過渡，佩德羅將擔任顧問職務直至今年年底。

We will now be happy to take your questions.

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示）克里斯·帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

Great. Just given the performance in retail and kind of the puts and takes over the last season or 2, could you just potentially speak to what you're seeing in end market grower demands in both of your major or, or I should say three perhaps, what you're hearing from growers, where your inventory levels are? Just anything that we could help compartmentalize where we stand today versus normalized -- perhaps more of a normalized set up for '25 and '26?

偉大的。鑑於零售業的表現以及過去一兩個季度的買賣情況，您能否談談您在兩個主要市場（或者我應該說三個主要市場）看到的終端市場種植者需求，您從種植者那裡聽到了什麼，您的庫存水平如何？我們能做的只是將我們今天的立場與正常化進行區分——也許更能為 25 年和 26 年建立正常化設置？

Yes. Great. Thanks for the question, Chris. And yes, obviously, with some softening ag commodity prices, we've seen that impact grower sentiment. That's true.

是的。偉大的。謝謝你的提問，克里斯。是的，顯然，隨著一些農產品價格的走軟，我們已經看到這對種植者情緒產生了影響。這是真的。

At the same time, if we look at what cost of inputs is done that grower affordability is still there and all the incentives exist for growers to maximize yields. But certainly, Jeff can talk about what he's seeing on the ground in key regions like North America and Australia.

同時，如果我們看一下投入的成本，就會發現種植者仍然具有承受能力，並且種植者有充分的激勵措施來最大限度地提高產量。但傑夫當然可以談談他在北美和澳洲等主要地區的實地觀察。

Yes. Thanks, Chris, and good question. And obviously, we would -- growers love to see commodityprices higher. If I look at our business, we had, I think, a very strong print in the second quarter. And more importantly, we had very strong margins across all three shelves of our business, crop protection, seed and fertilizer.

是的。謝謝，克里斯，這個問題問得好。顯然，種植者樂見商品價格上漲。如果我看一下我們的業務，我認為我們在第二季的業績非常強勁。更重要的是，我們的三大業務領域（作物保護、種子和肥料）都擁有非常高的利潤率。

And if I look at it from a grower standpoint, and if I look at what USDA is projecting from crop yield standpoint, I can tell you that I haven't seen growers pull back on giving their crops, the inputs they need to maximize yields going forward. We think that from an inventory standpoint, we're in a really good position right now. And we had a real strong focus on getting our inventory down as low as we possibly could. Through the first half, we brought our inventory down roughly $700 million. A large part of that is in the crop protection shelf, and we have a very clear focus on doing that.

如果我從種植者的角度來看待這個問題，如果我從農作物產量的角度來預測美國農業部，我可以告訴你，我還沒有看到種植者減少對農作物的投入，也沒有減少為最大限度地提高未來產量所需的投入。我們認為，從庫存的角度來看，我們現在處於非常有利的地位。我們非常重視盡可能降低庫存。上半年，我們的庫存減少了約 7 億美元。其中很大一部分是在作物保護貨架上，我們非常明確地專注於此。

And probably more impressive is we've been able to bring our inventory down in each of the geographies. And probably more importantly, we brought it down just under $250 million in our Brazil business. And so again, if I look going forward, if we pull the yields off that are projected, there's going to be an awful lot of nutrient removal from the soil and we get an open fall, I would expect that we would see strong demand for [MP&K] as we go into the fall season. Again, that's going to be weather dependent, but again, it's a really solid print across the first half. We've seen margins return to what we consider to be historical margins, some of our (inaudible) that may be a bit above historical margins.

可能更令人印象深刻的是，我們已經能夠降低每個地區的庫存。或許更重要的是，我們在巴西的業務價值已降至近 2.5 億美元。所以，如果我再展望未來，如果我們實現預期的產量，就會從土壤中去除大量的養分，並且我們迎來一個開放的秋天，我預計隨著秋季的到來，我們會看到對 [MP&K] 的強勁需求。再次強調，這將取決於天氣，但再次強調，上半年的印刷確實非常穩定。我們已經看到利潤率回到了我們認為的歷史水平，我們的一些（聽不清楚）可能略高於歷史水平。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Andrew Wong。

So just on the potash segment, at the moment, you've got six operating potash mines. They're operating at about an 80%, 85% operating rate. Could it make sense to maybe curtail production or shut down one of the higher cost mines like you had done previously, advance delay and consolidate production, so it's a little bit more efficient around fewer mines, which could potentially save on costs?

光是在鉀肥領域，目前就有六個正在運作的鉀肥礦。他們的營運率約為 80% 至 85%。像您以前所做的那樣，減少產量或關閉其中一個成本較高的礦山，提前延遲並整合生產，這樣在較少的礦山周圍效率更高，從而有可能節省成本，這是否有意義？

Thank you, Andrew, for the question. And I can assure you that we've looked at that very closely over the years. And one of the benefits of having 6-mines and the flexibility in production is the ability to respond to our customers. Because even this year where we've seen delayed contracts in India and China, which is, of course, standard-grade products, we have the ability to produce additional granular and serve granular markets while we are watching delays in those standard grade markets. And so that flexibility among that 6-mine network allows us to, as I said, meet the needs of our customers.

謝謝安德魯提出的問題。我可以向你們保證，多年來我們一直在密切關注這個問題。擁有 6 個礦場和生產彈性的好處之一就是能夠回應客戶的需求。因為即使今年我們看到印度和中國的合約延遲，當然還有標準級產品，我們有能力生產額外的顆粒並服務於顆粒市場，同時我們正在觀察這些標準級市場的延遲。正如我所說，這 6 個礦井網路的靈活性使我們能夠滿足客戶的需求。

Curtailing one mine definitely limits that flexibility because we have some mines that produce more standard grade and some mines that produce more granular products. So I would say, in this environment, again, where we've seen shifting trade flows, we've seen additional volume coming out of Russia and Belarus, and we've seen a mix -- a balance shifting between granular and standard grade markets, that flexibility is actually a big advantage for us, and it's an advantage that is playing out certainly as we speak and one that we want to preserve because it does create value for shareholders.

削減一座礦山肯定會限制這種靈活性，因為我們有些礦山生產更多標準品位的產品，而有些礦山則生產更多顆粒狀的產品。所以我想說，在這種環境下，我們再次看到貿易流向的變化，我們看到來自俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的交易量增加，我們看到了混合——顆粒級和標準級市場之間的平衡轉變，這種靈活性實際上對我們來說是一個很大的優勢，而且這種優勢正在發揮作用，我們希望保持這種優勢，因為它確實為股東創造了價值。

Jacob Bout, CIBC.

加拿大帝國商業銀行 (CIBC) 的 Jacob Bout。

I had a few questions about the unauthorized execution of that derivatives contract that resulted in that large charge. Just want to understand, what was the situation that led up to that? Was it -- is it kind of normal course steps such a large exposure? Is this only a Brazil issue? And then maybe just comment on your use of derivatives as a risk management strategy.

我對該衍生性商品合約未經授權執行並導致巨額收費的問題有一些疑問。只是想了解一下，導致這種情況的原因是什麼？如此大規模的曝光是否是正常的做法？這僅僅是巴西的問題嗎？然後也許只是評論一下您使用衍生性商品作為風險管理策略的情況。

Good. Thank you, Jacob. So to answer your specific question, was this in the normal course? The answer is no. What led up to it was, yes, obviously, we're doing a lot of work in Brazil and some organizational changes that led to challenges on segregation of duties and some of the checks and balances, governance and controls that we have in place.

好的。謝謝你，雅各。那麼，回答你的具體問題，這是正常現象嗎？答案是否定的。是的，顯然，導致這一結果的原因是我們在巴西做了很多工作，一些組織變革為我們現有的職責分工以及一些制衡、治理和控制帶來了挑戰。

We identified that quickly, we dealt with it quickly, and we have remediated the issue. It's certainly only contained to Brazil, and we've had our auditors have a look at all of this and certainly on a path to remediation. With respect to how we use instruments to hedge, I'll pass that over to Pedro to provide some more explanation.

我們很快就發現了這個問題，並迅速處理了它，並且已經解決了這個問題。這個問題肯定只限於巴西，我們的審計人員已經對這一切進行了審查，並且肯定會採取補救措施。關於我們如何使用工具進行對沖，我將交給佩德羅來提供更多解釋。

Thank you. Jacob, what we use is a typical combination of forwards and options. So there's nothing too exotic there to basically cover positions that we have short in dollars for that position. But as mentioned by Ken, I think the issues were more actions that we're taking outside of the normal policy. And those were quickly identified, rectified, and we have all the controls being put in place now that we are quite confident will be totally remediating the situation for the future.

謝謝。雅各布，我們使用的是典型的前鋒和選擇的組合。因此，沒有什麼太奇特的東西可以基本上彌補我們在該頭寸上的美元短缺。但正如肯所提到的，我認為問題更多在於我們採取了超出正常政策範圍的行動。這些問題很快就被識別和糾正，而且我們已經採取了所有控制措施，我們非常有信心未來能夠徹底糾正這種情況。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，BMO 資本市場。

Ken and team, you had your Investor Day in June. It was less than -- fewer than two months ago. And I think the focus of that event really seeing how you're going to grow retail over the next couple of years from about $1.75 billion this year, pick up maybe $0.25 billion of EBITDA over the next couple of years. With your update now, you're guiding down retail $150 million lower. And what strikes me is how do you reconcile your view less than two months ago?

Ken 和團隊，你們在六月舉辦了投資者日。那是不到兩個月前的事了。我認為這次活動的重點是看看未來幾年零售額如何從今年的約 17.5 億美元成長到未來幾年 EBITDA 可能達到 2.5 億美元。根據您現在的更新，零售額將下降 1.5 億美元。令我驚訝的是，您如何調和不到兩個月前的觀點？

This is a big growth engine for Nutrien. But now you're guiding down retail, you're making that challenge harder. Do you still stick to those targets what's changed? Do you need to review everything? What do you think?

這對 Nutrien 來說是一個巨大的成長引擎。但現在你正在引導零售業，這使得這項挑戰變得更加困難。您是否仍然堅持這些目標？有什麼變化嗎？你需要複習所有內容嗎？你怎麼認為？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Joel. And we absolutely still believe in those targets and are in fact, progressing towards those targets. When we talk about our North American and Australian business organic growth, or what we can do on proprietary products and network optimization and some of the investments we're making in our digital platform. If we look at the margin improvements in the first half of 2024, we're very encouraged by the path that we're on in North America and Australia.

是的。謝謝你的提問，喬爾。我們絕對仍然相信這些目標，事實上，我們正​​在朝著這些目標前進。當我們談論北美和澳洲業務的有機成長，或者我們在專有產品和網路優化方面可以做些什麼，以及我們在數位平台上進行的一些投資時。如果我們看一下 2024 年上半年的利潤率改善情況，我們對北美和澳洲的發展道路感到非常鼓舞。

When we talk about guiding down at the moment, we essentially have two challenges. One is what we talked about in Brazil. And as it relates to Brazil, we can talk more about the challenges that we've seen in terms of taking longer for that market to stabilize. We were looking to -- if our inventories to clear out through 2024 and so we could emerge into 2025 in a better position. That said, we've seen some changes with grower buying patterns where there's been a shift to generic crop protection products and even straight commodity fertilizers, which is having the effect of taking longer for in-country inventories to clear through the system.

當我們談論當下引導時，我們主要面臨兩個挑戰。一個是我們在巴西談到的。就巴西而言，我們可以更多地談論我們所看到的有關該市場需要更長時間才能穩定的挑戰。我們希望——如果我們的庫存能夠在 2024 年之前清理完畢，那麼我們就能以更好的狀態進入 2025 年。話雖如此，我們已經看到種植者的購買模式發生了一些變化，他們轉向購買通用作物保護產品，甚至是直接購買商品肥料，這導致國內庫存清算時間更長。

We've also seen some unfavorable weather conditions, and we're also dealing with a change in buyer behavior where it's just-in-time purchasing on the farm, and that obviously creates challenges through the supply chain and so on. We do have a plan in Brazil, and it is a plan where we're going to, as we speak, improving margins. We've talked about closing 21 locations. We've talked about curtailing three blenders, cost reduction initiatives and certainly working down our inventories, and that's happening as we speak. When we step back, we believe in our presence in Brazilian agriculture, and we believe in that market, it's just taking time to stabilize.

我們也看到了一些不利的天氣條件，我們也在應對買家行為的變化，即在農場進行即時採購，這顯然給供應鏈等帶來了挑戰。我們在巴西確實有一個計劃，這個計劃就是我們要提高利潤率。我們已經討論過關閉 21 家門市。我們已經討論過減少三家攪拌機、降低成本的舉措以及減少庫存，這些都在進行中。當我們退一步時，我們相信我們在巴西農業中的存在，我們相信這個市場，只是需要時間來穩定。

So again, when we talk about the challenges and the guide down in our retail EBITDA, Brazil plays a huge role in that, and we are on a path to a better day in Brazil. The other one is we're always dealing with weather in agriculture, and it is true that we had a wet spring in May in North America that we didn't see all the product go to ground that we would normally have seen. We're heading into the fall application season here. This crop in North America is going to pull a lot of crop nutrition out of the ground. We had a very strong summer fill program.

因此，當我們談論零售 EBITDA 面臨的挑戰和指引時，巴西在其中發揮了巨大的作用，我們正走在巴西走向更美好未來的道路上。另一個原因是，我們在農業生產中總是要應對天氣因素，事實上，北美五月份的春季雨水較多，所以我們沒有看到所有農產品都像往常一樣被種植到地裡。我們即將進入秋季申請季。北美的這種作物將從土地中吸收大量的農作物養分。我們有一個非常強大的夏季填充計劃。

And so that as we head into the fall, we're looking to -- when they're pending a strong fall application season. So it's all to say, Joel, that we absolutely believe in what we talked about at Investor Day, we're dealing with some near-term challenges here that we have a plan for.

因此，當我們進入秋季時，我們期待著——他們正在等待一個強勁的秋季申請季節。所以，喬爾，我們完全相信我們在投資者日所談論的內容，我們正在應對一些近期的挑戰，我們已經制定了計劃。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

Just two real quick ones. So one, as you look into the upgrade of your potash volumes globally, but then at the same time, your internal guidance raise is a little more muted, could you quantify what your expectation is as the potential disruption on the rail strike that you've mentioned?

只需兩個非常快速的。因此，首先，當您考慮在全球範圍內提高鉀肥產量時，但與此同時，您的內部指導上調幅度卻比較小，您能否量化您對所提到的鐵路罷工可能造成的中斷的預期？

Yes. Thanks, Ben. And when we guide on potash volumes, we have considered the potential for a short rail strike, but yes, there's a lot of moving parts there. So I'll pass it over to Mark Thompson.

是的。謝謝，本。當我們指導鉀肥產量時，我們已經考慮到了短暫鐵路罷工的可能性，但確實，那裡有很多活動部件。所以我會把它交給馬克湯普森。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So yes, first and foremost, obviously, we're concerned about the potential for the rail strike, as Pedro mentioned in his comments, given the impact that this would have not only on Nutrien, but on our customers and the broader economy. And given the dependence, particularly of our offshore potash exports through Canpotex on Canadian rail on a consistent basis, really any work stoppage would have some impact on the business. So with the uncertainty surrounding the situation in recent months, we've done a few things that are within our control, charge up our domestic distribution network and Canpotex has also worked to take proactive steps to support customers and charge up their network to the degree that, that's possible.

是的。謝謝，肯。是的，首先，顯然，我們擔心鐵路罷工的可能性，正如佩德羅在評論中提到的那樣，因為這不僅會對 Nutrien 產生影響，還會對我們的客戶和更廣泛的經濟產生影響。鑑於我們透過 Canpotex 向加拿大鐵路出口鉀肥的依賴性，任何停工都會對業務產生一定影響。因此，鑑於最近幾個月情況的不確定性，我們做了一些我們能控制的事情，增強了我們的國內分銷網絡，Canpotex 也採取了積極措施來支持客戶，並儘可能增強他們的網絡。

Just on your question on guidance, look, I think there's some unknowns here, given this is relatively unprecedented, but in our guidance, we've embedded, we'll say a few days to a maximum of a week of potential impact from a rail strike. And if we were to see that type of eventuality, we would expect that we would be trending towards the lower end of our potash sales volume guidance. Now in the event that we move through the situation, and we don't see a logistics interruption, that would see a situation where we'd be trending more towards the midpoint or potentially even the upper end of our potash sales volume guidance, all else equal. So when you take that into account and you look at us raising our full year global shipment estimate by about 1 million tonnes, I think that probably helps square up the plug on a typical market share for us in that 19% to 19.5% range that we've talked about historically.

關於您關於指導的問題，我認為這裡有一些未知數，因為這是相對史無前例的，但在我們的指導中，我們已經嵌入了，我們會說鐵路罷工可能造成幾天到最多一周的影響。如果我們真的看到了這種可能性，我們預計我們的鉀肥銷售量將趨向於預期的低端。現在，如果我們能夠度過這一難關，並且沒有看到物流中斷，那麼在其他條件相同的情況下，我們的鉀肥銷售量將更趨向於中點，甚至可能達到鉀肥銷售量指導的上限。因此，當您考慮到這一點，並且看到我們將全年全球出貨量預估提高約 100 萬噸時，我認為這可能有助於我們在 19% 至 19.5% 的典型市場份額上取得平衡，正如我們過去所討論的那樣。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

I'm wondering if you could talk a bit more about Brazil and maybe crop chemicals, in particular. Your suppliers or some of your suppliers have reported they've obviously speaking about the challenges down there as well. It seems like there's price competition being led by generics, but maybe broader than that. And I'm just wondering, are you seeing -- are your inventory positions there in terms of your costs? Are they where they need to be?

我想知道您是否可以多談談巴西的情況，特別是農作物化學物質。您的供應商或部分供應商報告說，他們顯然也在談論那裡面臨的挑戰。看起來仿製藥引發了價格競爭，但其範圍可能比這更廣。我只是想知道，您是否看到了——就成本而言，您的庫存狀況如何？他們是否在他們需要去的地方？

Are you getting concessions from the suppliers? Or is there more work to be done there? And how much is crop chem of the $150 million reduction in EBITDA for the year. How much of that is associated with crop chem to the extent you can estimate?

您從供應商那裡得到優惠了嗎？還是還有更多工作要做？那麼農作物化學在全年 EBITDA 減少的 1.5 億美元中佔了多少呢？您能估計其中有多少與農作物化學有關嗎？

Yes. No, thanks, Vincent, and I think you identified a lot of the challenges in crop protection and the (inaudible). And certainly, as you say, they switch to generic crop protection among some farmers is certainly having an impact. But I'll pass it over to Jeff Tarsi to provide more detail.

是的。不，謝謝，文森特，我認為你指出了作物保護和（聽不清楚）。當然，正如您所說，一些農民改用通用作物保護措施肯定會產生影響。但我會將其交給 Jeff Tarsi 來提供更多細節。

Yes, Vincent, Thanks. And look, I don't think that anyone's exempt from the market pressures that we've seen in Brazil over the last 18 to 24 months. And that pressure has been particularly intense around the crop chem sector, really started in the back half of last year. And what we have seen, and I think it was mentioned a little bit earlier, is that we're seeing more efforts on the generic side of the market, and we're seeing growers, as they're squeezed financially as well, looking for lower cost options, particularly around generic chemistry from that standpoint. And I think we'll continue to see that for a bit.

是的，文森特，謝謝。而且，我認為沒有人能夠免受過去 18 到 24 個月我們在巴西看到的市場壓力的影響。這種壓力在農作物化學領域尤其強烈，實際上從去年下半年就開始了。我們看到的是，我想我們之前也提到過，我們在仿製藥市場方面做出了更多努力，我們也看到種植者由於財務壓力很大，正在尋找成本更低的選擇，特別是從這個角度來看仿製藥。我認為我們還會繼續看到這種情況一段時間。

You mentioned what portion of our business is from a crop chem basis, we're basically a third, a third, a third there from a crop chem fertilizer standpoint. From an inventory standpoint, as I mentioned earlier, we brought our inventory down quarter-over-quarter roughly about $250 million, and a large portion of that -- $250 million for Brazil. And a large portion of that is in the crop chem sector. So I like where we've got ourselves positioned from a crop chem standpoint. And again, we continue to see margin pressure there.

您提到了我們的業務中有多少部分來自作物化學基礎，從作物化學肥料的角度來看，我們基本上佔三分之一。從庫存角度來看，正如我之前提到的，我們的庫存環比下降了約 2.5 億美元，其中很大一部分來自巴西。其中很大一部分來自作物化學領域。因此，我喜歡我們從作物化學角度所處的定位。我們再次看到利潤率繼續面臨壓力。

And while we've done a good job of getting our inventory down, what's important as we go forward is that the risk of the retail industry get their crop chem in that same position that we want to see some alleviations on margins. As Ken mentioned a bit earlier, we're just super focused right now on margin improvement across all three [shelves] of our business, cash generation and again, managing our inventories down just as tight as we can possibly get them.

雖然我們在降低庫存方面做得很好，但隨著我們前進，重要的是零售業的風險使其農作物化學品處於同樣的境地，我們希望看到利潤率降低。正如肯恩之前提到的，我們現在非常專注於提高我們所有三個業務的利潤率、現金產生，並盡可能嚴格地管理我們的庫存。

Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的本‧艾薩克森 (Ben Isaacson)。

So back to Brazil, Ken, you mentioned that you have a plan in place for operational improvements in the near term, but maybe a bit of a longer-term question. You guys have taken roughly $800 million of write-downs in the region over the past year or so and then another $200 million of this FX issue. So $1 billion of challenges against a business that generates somewhere between $80 million and $100 million in EBITDA. Is that right? And what are we playing for here?

回到巴西，肯，你提到你已經制定了短期營運改進計劃，但也許是一個長期問題。在過去一年左右的時間裡，你們在該地區承擔了大約 8 億美元的減值，然後又承擔了 2 億美元的外匯減值。因此，對於一家 EBITDA 在 8,000 萬至 1 億美元之間的企業來說，10 億美元的挑戰是巨大的。是嗎？我們在這裡是為了什麼？

And what's still at risk? And how has that run rate changed given that you're making some pivots in the region?

還有什麼風險？鑑於你們在該地區做出一些調整，運行率有何變化？

Yes, thanks and -- thanks for the question, Ben. Yes, we're obviously doing a complete commercial review of our business in Brazil. We're still a small percent of the market, less than 2% of the market in Brazil. And we've been through just a period of extraordinary volatility ever since really the conflict in Eastern Europe. And we're at a time in the market that's challenged for all the reasons that we've talked about today.

是的，謝謝，謝謝你的提問，本。是的，我們顯然正在對我們在巴西的業務進行全面的商業審查。我們的市佔率仍然很小，在巴西的市佔率不到 2%。自從東歐衝突爆發以來，我們經歷了一段極度動盪的時期。我們正處於市場面臨挑戰的時期，原因如上所述。

And of course, Brazilian agriculture and Brazilian retail won't be challenged forever because that region continues to grow in terms of agriculture and farmers continue to look for maximizing yields, and therefore, appropriate crop input. So the market is going to come around. We know that. It's a matter of time for us. As Nutrien, yes, we have been assessing how it is that we continue to gain access to Brazilian agriculture as one of the largest potash suppliers into the country as we look at proprietary products and the opportunity to grow that business in Brazil.

當然，巴西農業和零售業不會永遠面臨挑戰，因為該地區的農業持續成長，農民繼續尋求最大化產量，從而尋求適當的作物投入。所以市場將會復甦。我們知道這一點。對我們來說這只是時間問題。作為 Nutrien，是的，我們一直在評估如何作為巴西最大的鉀肥供應商之一繼續進入巴西農業市場，同時我們也在尋找專有產品和在巴西發展該業務的機會。

And for the balance of it, yes, a strategic review on what makes sense for us going forward, to your point, Ben.

總的來說，是的，我們需要進行一次策略性審查，看看什麼對我們未來的發展有意義，正如你所說，本。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Thanks very much. you lowered your retail guide by about $150 million. How much of the lowering came from the weather in the US and how much came from South American operations?

非常感謝。你們將零售指導價降低了約 1.5 億美元。產量下降有多少是由於美國的天氣原因，有多少是由於南美洲的營運原因？

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. And certainly, the majority of that change was related to everything that we've talked about with respect to Brazil. The impact of wet May in North America, it contributed to about 1/3 of that adjustment.

是的。謝謝，傑夫。當然，大部分的變化都與我們談論巴西的一切有關。北美五月雨水的影響，導致了約三分之一的調整。

Joshua Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的 Joshua Spector。

This is Lucas pain on for Josh. I just wanted to follow up on the pathway for retail towards the 2026 targets. I mean you're sort of pointing to about $1.6 billion in EBITDA this year, and then bridging that to the $2 billion. I mean, over the last five years, retail has only kind of grown EBITDA at a mid-single digit kind of rate. To hit the $2 billion, you're going to need to get up to kind of 12% a year in the next two years.

這是盧卡斯為喬希承受的痛苦。我只是想跟進零售業實現 2026 年目標的路徑。我的意思是，您指的是今年的 EBITDA 約為 16 億美元，然後將其提高到 20 億美元。我的意思是，在過去五年裡，零售業的 EBITDA 成長率只有中等個位數。要達到 20 億美元，未來兩年內每年的殖利率需要達到 12% 左右。

So could you please just kind of walk us through the buckets of the growth algorithm, and how you see yourself getting to be able to deliver on that?

那麼，您能否向我們簡單介紹一下成長演算法的各個方面，以及您認為自己將如何實現這一目標？

Yes. Thanks, Josh -- sorry it's Lucas. We certainly have that bridge and the path from here to there, and I'll pass it over to Jeff to provide that.

是的。謝謝，喬希——抱歉，我是盧卡斯。我們當然有從這裡到那裡的橋樑和道路，我會把它交給傑夫來提供。

Yes. Ken laid out, Josh, a little bit earlier. We laid out in our investor strategy 1.9 to 2.1 and we continue to see a path to that number. As I look at it, I see three different buckets that we need to achieve on to deliver that 1.9 to 2.1. Number one, it starts with the continued momentum in growing our proprietary products business, particularly when we emphasize our plant nutrition and biologicals, we've been growing that business at a pace greater than 10% a year, and we believe we can continue that trajectory through further penetration in our core retail markets.

是的。肯比喬希稍早一點。我們在投資者策略中列出了 1.9 到 2.1 的目標，我們將繼續看到實現這一數字的途徑。我認為，要實現1.9到2.1的目標，我們需要實現三個不同的目標。首先，要維持我們專有產品業務的持續成長勢頭，尤其是在植物營養和生物製劑領域，我們這些業務的年增長率一直超過10%。我們相信，透過進一步滲透核心零售市場，我們能夠繼續保持這一成長勢頭。

And what's also important is as well as our growth in our international and wholesale channels and working with our commercial teams there. And so that's going to play a significant part in it. But also, we want to have steady and stable growth at our base operations in North America and Australia, consistent with what we delivered over the last five years, and that's going to include network optimization, which we're working on really hard right now. It's going to include organic growth within those base businesses. And then some tuck-ins going forward.

同樣重要的是我們在國際和批發管道的成長以及與那裡的商業團隊的合作。因此這將在其中發揮重要作用。但同時，我們希望我們在北美和澳洲的基地業務能夠穩步成長，與過去五年來的表現保持一致，這將包括網路優化，我們目前正在努力實現這一目標。它將包括這些基礎業務的有機成長。然後繼續前進。

And then last but not least, and we talked a lot about this morning is our Brazil business and that seeing that market stabilize to that effect. So those are the three buckets that we see, and we still think that we're on a path to achieving that.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們今天早上談論了很多關於我們巴西業務的事情，以及看到巴西市場趨於穩定。這就是我們所看到的三個目標，我們仍然認為我們正在實現這一目標的道路上。

Stephen Byrne, Bank of America.

美國銀行的史蒂芬伯恩。

Yes. Thanks, Joe. Pardon, Jeff, in response to your comments just now about growing proprietary 10% per year, it looks like our proprietary seed, chemical and nutrients as a percent of the platform slipped in the first half of the year. Is there anything that you can call out that drove that? And as you look into a year where grower margins are looking tight, does that favor a shift to your proprietary products? Or do you see risk that they seek out more generics?

是的。謝謝喬。傑夫，請原諒我，關於你剛才關於每年專有產品增長10%的評論，看起來我們專有的種子、化學品和營養成分在平台上的佔比在今年上半年有所下滑。您能說出導致這現象的原因嗎？而當您看到今年種植者的利潤看起來很緊張時，這是否有利於轉向您的專有產品？或者您認為他們尋求更多仿製藥存在風險？

Yes. Thanks, Steve. And I -- first of all, I do think that when we get in these tighter marketing conditions, it favors it, not only just around the not only around the crop protection shift, but I think it favors a bit on our propietary seed business. And again, on our biologicals and crop nutrition and how we feed the crop as we go along through the season with that standpoint. And again, we've seen excellent growth again this year in our plant nutrition and biostimulant space.

是的。謝謝，史蒂夫。首先，我確實認為，當我們進入這些更嚴格的行銷條件時，它不僅對作物保護轉變有利，而且我認為這對我們的專有種子業務也有一點好處。再一次，從這個角度來看，我們談論的是生物製劑和作物營養，以及我們如何在整個季節中為作物施肥。今年，我們的植物營養和生物刺激素領域再次取得了優異的成長。

I'm particularly pleased around one of our products, Terramar, which had about a 300% increase in usage last year. We're up another 75% this year. So we continue to be encouraged by that sector. And then it doesn't get mentioned a lot, but our adjuvants sales year-to-date are up 7%, Steven, and adjuvants make up 5% of our crop protection space, that contribute 13% of our margins. And so it tells us that our people are very focused and our growers are very conscious on continuing to use products to give them the best chance of efficacy.

我對我們的一款產品 Terramar 特別滿意，它的使用量去年增加了約 300%。今年我們又成長了 75%。因此，我們繼續受到該行業的鼓舞。雖然很少提及，但今年迄今為止我們的佐劑銷售額增長了 7%，史蒂文，佐劑占我們作物保護領域的 5%，貢獻了我們 13% 的利潤。因此，這告訴我們，我們的員工非常專注，我們的種植者非常清楚繼續使用產品，以使其發揮最佳功效。

When you mentioned that as a percent, it looked like our proprietary business was less. You have to factor in last year that, that would have looked larger due to what we saw as the reset in the fertilizer market last year in the first quarter. And so that would have thrown those percentages out. But our business of -- our proprietary products business continues to be a very bright spot for us. And again, we've got a lot of plans for big growth in that space going forward.

當您提到百分比時，看起來我們的自營業務較少。你必須考慮到去年的情況，由於我們看到去年第一季化肥市場重新調整，所以這個數字看起來會更大。這樣一來，這些百分比就不存在了。但我們的專有產品業務仍然是我們的一大亮點。再說一次，我們為該領域的未來發展制定了許多計劃。

Aron Ceccarelli, Berenberg.

阿隆‧切卡雷利 (Aron Ceccarelli)，貝倫貝格 (Berenberg)。

I would like to ask a question about potash on the supply side. After the renegotiation of the contract, clearly, it seems like both India and China coming back. I would like to understand on the supply side, what you guys have seen from Laos? And how should we think about capacity addition from these guys for the remainder of the year?

我想問一個關於鉀肥供應方面的問題。經過合約的重新談判，顯然印度和中國都回歸了。我想了解供應方面，你們從寮國看到了什麼？那麼，我們該如何看待這些人在今年剩餘時間內增加產能呢？

Yes. Thanks, Aron. Yes, we look at 2024, and on the demand side, what we've seen has been quite strong this year that led us to increase our view, 69 to 72 million tonnes of shipments through the year. With just about every market increasing demand on the supply side then there -- we look at a balanced market, and that does involve Laos, and it does involve supplies out of Russia and Belarus, but I'll pass it over to Mark to talk about those numbers.

是的。謝謝，阿隆。是的，我們展望 2024 年，從需求方面來看，我們看到今年的需求相當強勁，這讓我們提高了預期，全年出貨量將達到 6,900 萬至 7,200 萬噸。由於幾乎每個市場對供應方面的需求都在增加，我們看到一個平衡的市場，這確實涉及老撾，也確實涉及俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的供應，但我會把這些數字交給馬克來談論。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So maybe just to kind of summarize how we're looking at the potash market as a whole. I think starting on the demand side of the equation, obviously, a very strong demand profile in the first half of 2024. Across granular markets, we've seen a demand recovery in Southeast Asia, and that's been combined with the continuation of strong domestic consumption of potash in China.

是的。謝謝，肯。所以也許只是總結一下我們如何看待整個鉀肥市場。我認為從需求方面來看，顯然 2024 年上半年的需求狀況非常強勁。在整個顆粒市場，我們看到東南亞的需求正在復甦，同時中國國內鉀肥消費也持續強勁。

As we've said before, this has all been supported by solid affordability. And really what we see is agronomic need to replenish potash levels globally after a few years of underapplication in key markets. So with the offshore contracts now in place, we do expect a global price floor to be established and standard demand remain strong through the second half of the year. We've mentioned already that we upped our global shipments estimate by 1 million tonnes on both ends of the range, and this is largely owing to stronger-than-expected shipments into China. So to come back to your question on the supply side of the equation, on the supply side, I'd say, for us, really as expected in terms of where the incremental supply has come from to service growth and demand this year, it's really the FSU, incremental supply from Canada and then Laos.

正如我們之前所說，這一切都得到了堅實的負擔能力的支持。我們真正看到的是，在主要市場鉀肥施用不足的幾年後，全球農學界需要補充鉀肥水平。因此，隨著海上合約的實施，我們確實預計全球價格底線將會建立，並且標準需求將在今年下半年保持強勁。我們已經提到，我們將全球出貨量預估範圍的兩端都上調了 100 萬噸，這主要是由於中國出貨量強於預期。所以回到你關於供應方面的問題，在供應方面，我想說，對於我們來說，正如預期的那樣，今年服務增長和需求的增量供應來自前蘇聯，其次是加拿大和老撾的增量供應。

And really, we've seen the pace of shipments from the FSU in the first half generally in line with the levels we saw in the second half of last year. Russian supply is effectively back to 2021 levels. And similarly, with Laos, we've seen shipments in the first half generally in line with the second half of last year. I think stepping back more broadly on Laos, as we've continued to read in publications and are aware, and I think that Laotian producers have announced themselves continue to experience challenges with production. We understand there's been continued water inflow issues that have hindered the achievement of production levels that were previously targeted.

事實上，我們看到前蘇聯上半年的出貨速度與去年下半年的水平基本一致。俄羅斯的供應量實際上已恢復到2021年的水準。同樣，對於寮國來說，我們看到上半年的出貨量與去年下半年基本持平。我認為，從更廣泛的角度來看待老撾，正如我們在出版物中繼續閱讀並意識到的那樣，我認為老撾生產商已經宣布他們在生產方面繼續面臨挑戰。我們了解到，持續存在的水流入問題阻礙了實現先前設定的生產水準。

And as we look out over the medium term, say, the next two to three years, we do expect that we will see some incremental supply from Laos, potentially 1 million tonnes in our SMD. However, disclosures out of laos have also taken larger expansions off the table from the previously targeted time frame. So yes, I think when we step back from all of that, as Ken said, we continue to see a relatively balanced market in 2024 with supply and demand. And I think actually as we look out to the next couple of years into 2025 and 2026, we expect to see global demand continue to grow, but there is less incremental supply available over that period. So we expect we could see some tightening and firming in the market over that time horizon.

而從中期來看，比如說未來兩到三年，我們確實預期寮國的供應量會有所增加，在我們的 SMD 中可能達到 100 萬噸。然而，寮國揭露的資訊也使得在先前設定的時間範圍內進行更大範圍的擴張變得不可能。所以是的，我認為當我們回顧所有這些時，正如肯所說，我們將繼續看到 2024 年的市場供需相對平衡。我認為，實際上，當我們展望 2025 年和 2026 年的未來幾年時，我們預計全球需求將繼續增長，但在此期間可用的增量供應會減少。因此，我們預計在這段時間內市場可能會出現一些收緊和走強的跡象。

Adam Samuelson, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

Maybe just continuing on that line of questioning, Mark, just with -- you're taking the range on global shipments up 1 million tonnes. I mean you guys talk about 20% or so market share. So that's 200,000 tonnes. It's what you lowered -- increased, certainly at the low end of the range. Why wouldn't -- is it just the rail strike that would take you away from increasing the high end?

馬克，也許只是繼續這個問題，你把全球出貨量的範圍提高了 100 萬噸。我的意思是你們談論的是 20% 左右的市佔率。那就是20萬噸。這是你降低的——增加的，當然在範圍的低端。為什麼不會——光是鐵路罷工就會讓你無法提高高端價格嗎？

Is it just the inventories coming out of the first half and known turnarounds in the fourth quarter? And I guess, how should we think about the uptake on summer fill in North America and what you're seeing from a North American affordability demand for corn and soybean growers where certain new crop prices don't point to a lot of profitability for the grower over the next 12 months?

只是上半年的庫存和第四季已知的改善嗎？我想，我們應該如何看待北美夏季填充作物的吸收量，以及您從北美對玉米和大豆種植者的可負擔需求中看到的情況，因為某些新作物的價格並不意味著種植者在未來 12 個月內能獲得很多盈利？

Great, Adam. Yes, I'll quickly pass over to Mark here. But I think you've actually identified many of the moving parts within our guidance range. And if you look at today without a rail strike, certainly, we expect to see strong volumes, and you see that reflected in our own production volumes in the first half. You see that reflected in our cash cost of production, $53 per tonne.

太好了，亞當。是的，我很快就會把話題交給馬克。但我認為您實際上已經確定了我們指導範圍內的許多活動部件。如果你看看今天沒有鐵路罷工的情況，我們當然預計會看到強勁的產量，你會看到這反映在我們上半年的產量上。您可以看到，這反映在我們的現金生產成本上，即每噸 53 美元。

And if -- without some challenges on rail, the year is, from a volume perspective, shaping up to be a very good one, maybe one of the best. And then, yes, Mark can certainly talk about additional color on guidance range and rail. And then also, yes, very strong uptick on our summer fill. But over to you, Mark.

如果鐵路方面沒有遇到一些挑戰，那麼從運量角度來看，今年將會是非常好的一個年份，甚至可能是最好的年份之一。然後，是的，馬克當然可以談論導引範圍和軌道上的附加顏色。是的，我們的夏季填充量也出現了非常強勁的成長。但交給你了，馬克。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So yes, again, I think you and Ken both summarized it well. I think if you were to look at what we've said in terms of rail strike earlier in the call, absent that, you'd see our typical market share targets to be right in line with what our guidance is implying relative to our global shipment guidance. And so obviously, we continue to watch that situation closely.

是的。謝謝，肯。是的，我再次認為您和肯都總結得很好。我認為，如果您看一下我們在電話會議早些時候談到的有關鐵路罷工的問題，您會發現我們的典型市場份額目標與我們的指導相對於全球出貨量指導所暗示的內容完全一致。因此，顯然我們會繼續密切關注這一情況。

We're hopeful that there's a resolution there that doesn't impact the business. But ultimately, from a commercial perspective, really nothing has changed with respect to our marketing strategy or our typical market share. I think in North America, as you pointed out and has been said earlier in the call, we are seeing some softness in commodity prices, but I think potash affordability is really in a strong place. We had an opportunity a couple of weeks ago to meet with all of our major customers in North America. I would say, across the Nutrien complex, sentiment is certainly the most positive on potash in terms of that affordability driving a strong bent towards consumption in the second half of the year.

我們希望能夠找到一個不會影響業務的解決方案。但最終，從商業角度來看，我們的行銷策略或典型市場佔有率其實沒有任何改變。我認為，正如您所指出的以及先前在電話會議中提到的那樣，北美的大宗商品價格有所疲軟，但我認為鉀肥的可負擔性確實處於強勁水平。幾週前，我們有機會與北美所有主要客戶會面。我想說，在整個 Nutrien 綜合企業中，人們對鉀肥的情緒無疑是最積極的，因為鉀肥的價格可承受，推動了下半年消費的強勁增長。

If you look at our summer fill program, we came through the spring season, notwithstanding some of the weather challenges with extremely depleted inventories across the channel in North America. Certainly, we saw that with all of our customers. We saw that within our Nutrien Ag Solutions business, and that set us up very well for a very strong summer fill program. So at this point, we're effectively sold out through the third quarter and effectively shipping into the first portion of October to deliver on that fill program. So Yes.

如果您查看我們的夏季填充計劃，我們度過了春季，儘管面臨一些天氣挑戰，但北美海峽對岸的庫存極度枯竭。當然，我們在所有客戶身上都看到了這一點。我們在 Nutrien Ag Solutions 業務中看到了這一點，這為我們制定非常強大的夏季填充計劃奠定了良好的基礎。因此，目前，我們第三季的庫存實際上已經售罄，並且實際上會在 10 月初發貨，以完成該填充計劃。是的。

I think the response we've seen on potash has been very good. We're not concerned on the consumption side of the equation in North America. But I'd say, really, that channel behavior is certainly normal.

我認為，我們看到的有關鉀肥的反應非常好。我們並不擔心北美的消費面。但我想說的是，實際上，該頻道行為確實是正常的。

Richard Garchitorena, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的理查德‧加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

If I could ask on capital allocation. So you've got a strong balance sheet, fairly low leverage and strong free cash flow this quarter. You've cut your CapEx needs for this year by $400 million to $500 million versus last year. And you've also guided obviously on the Investor Day, it's a significant production growth to 2026, which we would assume is supported by ongoing demand growth. So my question is, we have all these factors in play.

如果我可以詢問有關資本配置的問題。因此，本季您的資產負債表強勁，槓桿率相當低，自由現金流強勁。與去年相比，你們今年的資本支出需求削減了 4 億至 5 億美元。而且您在投資者日也明確指出，到 2026 年產量將大幅成長，我們認為這將受到持續需求成長的支持。所以我的問題是，所有這些因素都在發揮作用。

Your stock price has been fairly weak. What would we need to see for you to step up return of capital in the form of buybacks? And how should we see that play out potentially over the next 6 to 12 months?

您的股票價格一直相當疲軟。我們需要看到什麼才能讓您以回購的形式增加資本回報？那麼，我們該如何看待未來 6 到 12 個月內這一趨勢的發展呢？

Yes. Thanks, Rich. I think you identified some of the numbers there in our CapEx program, $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion, which includes about $500 million, and that's split between what we've talked about in retail, proprietary and network optimization. And then the other half goes into our upstream business, looking at nitrogen, brownfield investments, debottlenecking and mine automation and -- in potash. So we have a very targeted and I would say, exciting program on the investing side that, along with sustaining CapEx, adds up to that $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion.

是的。謝謝，里奇。我想您在我們的資本支出計劃中確定了一些數字，22 億美元到 23 億美元，其中包括約 5 億美元，這些資金分佈在我們所討論的零售、專有和網路優化領域。另一半則投入我們的上游業務，專注於氮氣、棕地投資、瓶頸消除和礦山自動化以及鉀肥。因此，我們在投資方面有一個非常有針對性的、令人興奮的計劃，加上維持資本支出，總額將達到 22 億至 23 億美元。

As you say, we've got about $450 million in leases and then about $1 billion for the dividend. So that all adds up to about $3.7 billion. And as we watch the year unfold and as we head into the fall here and into 2025, as you say, as we look at incremental cash above those levels, certainly, we will look at buying back our shares, among other opportunities, which could include ongoing retail tuck-in opportunities in North America and Australia, and maintaining the flexibility for those when they come up, but also, as you say, share repurchases.

正如您所說，我們的租賃收入約為 4.5 億美元，股息約為 10 億美元。所以總計約 37 億美元。隨著我們觀察新的一年，隨著我們進入秋季和 2025 年，正如您所說，當我們看到高於這些水平的增量現金時，我們當然會考慮回購我們的股票，以及其他機會，其中可能包括北美和澳大利亞持續的零售收購機會，並在這些機會出現時保持靈活性，但正如您所說，還有股票回購。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

瑞穗的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

Forgive me if that question was asked before. On phosphate, you seem to have some concerns about affordability given the persistence of the high prices there. But yesterday, like the biggest player in the space didn't seem to have any concern about the high prices. They think they can last for a long time and the disconnect between phosphate and perlite prices shouldn't be an issue. But like what makes you concerned about like the high prices of phosphate and how detrimental it could be to demand and affordability going forward?

如果這個問題之前有人問過，請原諒我。關於磷酸鹽，鑑於那裡的價格持續居高不下，您似乎對價格承受能力有些擔憂。但昨天，該領域最大的參與者似​​乎並不擔心高價。他們認為這些材料可以持續很長時間，磷酸鹽和珍珠岩價格之間的差距不應該成為問題。但是什麼讓您擔心磷酸鹽的高價格以及它對未來的需求和可負擔性有多大損害？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Edlain. We just talked about affordability and margins as it relates to potash and our summer fill program. It is a bit different situation in phosphate with some of the tightness in the phosphate market. And what we can tell you is what we're seeing talking to farmers through our downstream channel.

是的。謝謝你的提問，艾德萊恩。我們剛剛討論了與鉀肥和夏季填充計劃相關的可負擔性和利潤率。磷酸鹽的情況略有不同，磷酸鹽市場有些緊張。我們可以告訴您的是我們透過下游管道與農民交談時看到的情況。

So I'll start with Jeff to maybe provide some of that color, and then maybe over to Mark to talk a little bit about the fundamentals.

因此，我會先請傑夫介紹一些情況，然後再請馬克講講基本情況。

Yes. And as I stated earlier, when I look at the fall and the second half of the year, obviously, fall fertilizer activity and application will be weather dependent. We've had three good years in a row, and I'm banking on a fourth year here. If I look at the three nutrients, and Mark talked about this earlier, potash is appearing probably very in line from an affordability standpoint. The phosphate side of it is a bit more of the question mark, and I think that growers were probably expecting that, that price would come more in line with some of the other nutrients.

是的。正如我之前所說，當我展望秋季和下半年時，顯然秋季施肥活動和施用將取決於天氣。我們已經連續三年表現良好，我相信第四年也會如此。如果我看一下這三種營養素，馬克之前也談到了這一點，從可負擔性的角度來看，鉀肥可能非常符合要求。磷酸鹽方面則是一個疑問，我認為種植者可能已經預料到，磷酸鹽的價格將與其他一些營養物質的價格更加一致。

So if I think if there's a weakness out there in the fall from an application standpoint, I think that we're seeing early on that, that could be in the phosphate market. I don't want to really project it, what I think that could be for the fall, but we do see some softness in that side of it. We see growers asking a lot of questions from an affordability standpoint. Mark, I might kick it over to you.

因此，如果我認為從應用的角度來看秋季存在疲軟，那麼我認為我們很早就看到了這一點，這可能出現在磷酸鹽市場中。我不想真正預測秋天的情況，但我們確實看到了這方面的一些疲軟。我們看到種植者從可負擔的角度提出了很多問題。馬克，我可能會把它交給你。

Sure. Thanks, Jeff. Yes, I think I'll just reiterate almost exactly what Jeff said from a different perspective, which is when we've been talking to our customers across the retail channel, particularly in North America, it's true that global supply demand is very tight currently for phosphate. So that has led to good participation in fill programs because phosphate is needed. At the same time, as Jeff pointed out, we've got a pretty large price disparity between potash and phosphate currently in the market.

當然。謝謝，傑夫。是的，我想我只是從不同的角度重申傑夫所說的內容，也就是說，當我們透過零售通路與客戶交談時，特別是在北美，目前全球對磷酸鹽的供應需求確實非常緊張。由於需要磷酸鹽，這導致了填充計劃的良好參與。同時，正如傑夫指出的那樣，目前市面上鉀肥和磷酸鹽的價格差距很大。

So certainly, in those discussions with our customers, similar to Jeff's discussion with his team and growers, there are concerns about affordability and concerns about potential demand destruction in portions of the phosphate market as we get into later in the fall season. Now when you look at our phosphate business, in particular, obviously, we've got a very diversified phosphate business across both ag and industrial markets. We don't see an impact from that from a volume standpoint for us because we are positioned a little bit differently. But certainly, for our customers and down at the grower level on Nutrien Ag Solutions, it's something we're going to continue to watch very closely.

因此，當然，在與客戶的討論中，與傑夫與他的團隊和種植者的討論類似，人們擔心價格承受能力，也擔心進入秋季後期磷酸鹽市場部分區域的潛在需求破壞。現在，當您查看我們的磷酸鹽業務時，顯然，我們在農業和工業市場都擁有非常多樣化的磷酸鹽業務。從銷售角度來看，我們並沒有看到這方面的影響，因為我們的定位略有不同。但可以肯定的是，對於我們的客戶以及 Nutrien Ag Solutions 的種植者而言，我們將繼續密切關注此事。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Jeff Holzman. Please continue.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給傑夫霍爾茲曼。請繼續。

Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available if you have follow-up questions. Have a great day.

感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。