Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2024 second-quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Holzman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在想將電話會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁傑夫霍爾茲曼 (Jeff Holzman)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning. Welcome to Nutrien's second-quarter 2024 Earnings Call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts.

謝謝你，接線生。早安.歡迎參加 Nutrien 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。當我們進行本次電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計劃和前景所做的各種聲明都包含前瞻性資訊。在做出這些結論和預測時應用了某些假設。

Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form. I'll now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO; and Pedro Farah, our CFO, for opening comments.

因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性資訊中包含的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的更多資訊包含在我們向股東提交的季度報告以及我們最近的年度報告、MD&A 和年度資訊表中。現在我將把電話轉給 Nutrien 總裁兼執行長 Ken Seitz；我們的財務長 Pedro Farah 發表了開場評論。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. Nutrien just delivered adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 billion in the first half of 2024, supported by increased crop input margins, strong global potash demand and lower operating rate costs. Our upstream fertilizer production assets and downstream retail business in North America and Australia have performed well in 2024, demonstrating our advantages across the ag value chain. The operating environment in Brazil has remained more challenged, and we will discuss today the actions we are taking to stabilize our business in this market.

早安.感謝您今天加入我們。在作物投入利潤增加、全球鉀肥需求強勁和營運成本降低的支撐下，Nutrien 剛剛在 2024 年上半年實現了 33 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。我們在北美和澳洲的上游化肥生產資產和下游零售業務在2024年表現良好，展現了我們在農業價值鏈上的優勢。巴西的經營環境仍然面臨更大的挑戰，我們今天將討論我們為穩定我們在該市場的業務所採取的行動。

In Potash, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $1 billion in the first half of 2024, which was down from the prior year due to lower benchmark prices. We increased potash production across our 6-mine network, and lowered our controllable cash cost of production to $53 per tonne in the first half. The reduction in per tonne costs was driven by higher production volumes and supported by the benefits of mine automation investments. We sold record potash volumes in the first half, utilizing the advantages of our global supply chain to respond to increased demand from our customers in North America and offshore markets. In Nitrogen, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion in the first half of 2024, as lower benchmark prices were partially offset by lower natural gas costs.

在 Potash，我們在 2024 年上半年實現了 10 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，由於基準價格較低，該數字較上年有所下降。上半年，我們增加了 6 個礦場網路的鉀肥產量，並將可控制現金生產成本降低至每噸 53 美元。每噸成本的下降是由於產量增加以及礦山自動化投資的好處所推動的。上半年，我們利用全球供應鏈的優勢，滿足北美和離岸市場客戶不斷增長的需求，銷售了創紀錄的鉀肥量。在氮氣領域，我們在 2024 年上半年實現了 11 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，因為較低的基準價格被較低的天然氣成本部分抵消。

Our North American nitrogen assets remain very well positioned on the global cost curve, and we continue to progress reliability initiatives that contributed to higher operating rates. Nitrogen selling prices in the second quarter increased compared to the first quarter of the year, reflecting the advantages of our extensive North American distribution network and the strong execution of our commercial team. Phosphate fertilizer markets remained relatively firm through the first half of 2024, and we benefited from lower raw material input costs. Our phosphate sales volumes were consistent with the prior year as we had extended turnaround activity at our Aurora and White Springs plants in both periods. Retail adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.2 billion in the first half of 2024, up 17% from the prior year, driven by increased gross margin across all major product lines.

我們的北美氮資產在全球成本曲線上仍然處於非常有利的位置，並且我們繼續推進可靠性計劃，從而提高了營運率。第二季氮氣銷售價格較第一季上漲，反映出我們廣泛的北美分銷網絡的優勢以及我們商業團隊強大的執行力。 2024 年上半年，磷肥市場保持相對堅挺，我們受惠於原料投入成本下降。我們的磷酸鹽銷售量與前一年持平，因為我們在這兩個時期都延長了奧羅拉和懷特斯普林斯工廠的周轉活動。受所有主要產品線毛利率上升的推動，2024 年上半年零售業調整後 EBITDA 總計 12 億美元，比上年增長 17%。

Crop nutrient sales volumes were similar to the prior year as planting delays in May offset the benefits of an early start to the application season in the first quarter. Crop nutrient margins increased by $21 per tonne in the first half, supported by the stabilization of fertilizer markets and a lower cost inventory position compared to the prior year. Crop protection margins in North America returned to normalized levels, while wet weather in May impacted applications and shifted some demand into the third quarter. We ended the second quarter with retail crop protection inventory down 17% compared to the prior year. The majority of this reduction occurred in our Latin American operations where we are focused on tightly managing inventory and working capital levels.

作物養分銷量與去年相似，因為 5 月播種的延遲抵消了第一季施用季節提前開始的好處。受肥料市場穩定和成本庫存狀況較前一年降低的支撐，上半年農作物養分利潤每噸增加了 21 美元。北美的作物保護利潤恢復到正常水平，而五月的潮濕天氣影響了應用並將部分需求轉移到第三季。第二季結束時，零售作物保護庫存比去年同期下降了 17%。減少的大部分發生在我們的拉丁美洲業務中，我們專注於嚴格管理庫存和營運資本水準。

Overall, we are pleased with the first half performance of our North American and Australian retail businesses. Excluding the impacts of delayed planting in North America, our results were in line with our previous expectations. Now turning to Brazil, where we have seen more persistent challenges. As outlined at our Investor Day in June, we are accelerating a margin improvement plan focused on further reducing operating costs and rationalizing our footprint to optimize cash flow. This included the decision to curtail three fertilizer blenders and close 21 selling locations in the second quarter.

整體而言，我們對北美和澳洲零售業務上半年的表現感到滿意。排除北美延後播種的影響，我們的結果符合我們先前的預期。現在轉向巴西，我們在那裡看到了更持久的挑戰。正如我們在 6 月的投資者日所概述的那樣，我們正在加速實施利潤率改善計劃，重點是進一步降低營運成本並合理化我們的業務佈局以優化現金流。其中包括決定在第二季度削減 3 台肥料攪拌機並關閉 21 個銷售點。

We continue to evaluate our commercial footprint in Brazil to further extract efficiencies and see opportunities to grow our proprietary products business. During the second quarter, we also incurred a loss on foreign currency derivatives in Brazil. We have taken actions to remediate this issue and are confident that these actions have addressed the matter going forward. Now turning to the market outlook for the remainder of 2024. Global grain stocks remain historically tight while favorable growing conditions have created an expectation for record US.

我們繼續評估我們在巴西的商業足跡，以進一步提高效率並尋找發展我們專有產品業務的機會。第二季度，我們在巴西的外幣衍生性商品也出現了虧損。我們已採取行動來解決此問題，並相信這些行動已經解決了未來的問題。現在轉向 2024 年剩餘時間的市場前景。

corn and soybean yields. Despite lower crop prices, demand for crop inputs in North America is expected to remain strong in the third quarter as growers aim to maintain optimal plant health and yield potential. We anticipate good affordability for potash and nitrogen will support fall application rates this year. Prospective soybean margins in Brazil are currently above 2023 levels supported by a weaker real. Brazilian soybean area is expected to increase by 1% to 3% in the upcoming planting season, and fertilizer demand is projected at approximately 46 million tonnes in 2024, in line with historical record levels.

玉米和大豆產量。儘管農作物價格較低，但由於種植者旨在保持最佳的植物健康和產量潛力，預計第三季北美對農作物投入的需求將保持強勁。我們預計鉀肥和氮肥的良好承受能力將支持今年秋季的施用量。在雷亞爾疲軟的支撐下，巴西的預期大豆利潤率目前高於 2023 年水準。巴西大豆麵積在即將到來的種植季節預計將增加 1% 至 3%，預計 2024 年化肥需求約為 4,600 萬噸，與歷史記錄水準一致。

We are seeing strong underlying consumption trends in most major potash markets in 2024 and raised our full year global potash shipment forecast to 69 million to 72 million tonnes. Update on our summer fill program in North America has been strong, which is supportive of granular grade demand in the third quarter. The settlement of potash contracts with China and India in July is expected to support demand in standard grade markets through the second half. Global nitrogen markets are being supported by steady demand and continued supply challenges in key producing regions, including the extension of Chinese urea export restrictions into the second half of 2024. US.

我們看到 2024 年大多數主要鉀肥市場的潛在消費趨勢強勁，並將全年全球鉀肥出貨量預測上調至 6,900 萬噸至 7,200 萬噸。我們在北美的夏季填充計劃的最新進展非常強勁，這支持了第三季的顆粒級需求。 7月與中國和印度的鉀肥合約的結算預計將支撐下半年標準級市場的需求。全球氮肥市場受到主要產區穩定的需求和持續的供應挑戰的支撐，包括將中國尿素出口限制延長至 2024 年下半年。

nitrogen inventories were estimated to be below average levels entering the second half, and we have seen strong customer engagement on our summer fill programs in the third quarter. I will now turn it over to Pedro to provide more details on our full year 2024 guidance assumptions.

進入下半年，氮庫存預計低於平均水平，並且我們在第三季度看到客戶對我們的夏季充裝計劃的強烈參與。我現在將其轉交給 Pedro，以提供有關我們 2024 年全年指導假設的更多詳細資訊。

Good morning. As Ken highlighted, we raised our outlook for global potash demand in 2024, increased our annual potash sales volume guidance to 13.2 to 13.8 million tonnes. Our sales volume range factors in the potash for a relative short duration Canadian rail strike in the second half of 2024. We expect strong North American potash shipments in the third quarter, and we are planning typical annual maintenance turnarounds with the majority occurring this year in the fourth quarter. In Nitrogen, we narrowed our annual sales volume guidance range to 10.7 to 11.1 million tonnes.

早安.正如 Ken 所強調的，我們上調了 2024 年全球鉀肥需求前景，將年度鉀肥銷量指導上調至 13.2 至 1380 萬噸。我們的鉀肥銷售範圍因素是 2024 年下半年加拿大鐵路罷工相對較短的情況。第四季。在氮氣方面，我們將年銷量指引縮小至 1,070 至 1,110 萬噸。

We expect higher year-over-year volumes in both the third and fourth quarter, supported by lower planned turnaround activity in the second half. Our phosphate sales volume guidance range was lower to 2.5 to 2.6 million tonnes, reflecting the impact of extended turnaround activity and delayed mine equipment moves. For retail, our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered to $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion. The primary driver is the expectation for a more moderate recovery in Brazilian retail earnings as well as the impact of delayed planting in North America in the second quarter. We have taken a number of strategic actions in Brazil, including the containment of blenders that will result in lower near-term earnings potential, but will optimize cash flow.

我們預計，在下半年計劃週轉活動減少的支持下，第三季和第四季的銷售量將年增。我們的磷酸鹽銷售量指導範圍較低至 250 至 260 萬噸，反映了周轉活動延長和礦山設備移動延遲的影響。對於零售業，我們全年調整後 EBITDA 指引下調至 15 億至 17 億美元。主要驅動因素是對巴西零售收入溫和復甦的預期以及北美第二季播種延遲的影響。我們在巴西採取了一系列策略行動，包括遏制攪拌機，這將導致短期獲利潛力下降，但會優化現金流。

Capital expenditures were down 27% in the first half of 2024, and we maintained our full year CapEx guidance of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion. As mentioned at our Investor Day in June, our capital priorities are focused on initiatives that drive organic growth in retail and operational improvements in potash and nitrogen. The focus in retail is to further expand our proprietary products portfolio and drive network optimization. We are targeting a more than 10% annual growth rate in proprietary products gross margin, which is expected to be a significant contributor to our 2026 retail adjusted EBITDA target of $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion. The majority of planned investment capital in our fertilizer operations are related to mine automation projects in potash and the completion of low-cost brownfield expansions in nitrogen.

2024 年上半年資本支出下降 27%，我們維持 22 億至 23 億美元的全年資本支出指引。正如我們在 6 月的投資者日所提到的，我們的資本優先重點是推動零售有機成長以及鉀肥和氮肥營運改善的舉措。零售業務的重點是進一步擴大我們的專有產品組合併推動網路優化。我們的目標是自營產品毛利率年增率超過 10%，預計這將為我們 2026 年 19 億至 21 億美元的零售調整後 EBITDA 目標做出重大貢獻。我們化肥業務的大部分計畫投資資金都與鉀肥礦山自動化計畫以及氮肥低成本棕地擴張的完成有關。

These investments support our 2026 target to increase fertilizer sales volume by 2 million to 3 million tonnes compared to 2023 levels, while improving the efficiency of our operations. I'll now turn it back to Ken.

這些投資支持我們的 2026 年目標，與 2023 年相比，化肥銷量增加 200 萬至 300 萬噸，同時提高我們的營運效率。我現在將其轉回給肯。

Thanks, Pedro. Our results in the first half of 2024 highlighted the advantages of our world-class upstream production assets and downstream retail business in North America and Australia. We delivered record potash sales volumes, lowered our operating costs and improved retail margins. We continue to take actions to enhance the quality of our earnings and cash flow with a focus on improving our ability to serve growers in our core markets, maintain the low-cost position and reliability of our assets and position the company for growth. Finally, I would like to say a few words about the CFO transition that we announced yesterday.

謝謝，佩德羅。我們2024年上半年的業績凸顯了我們在北美和澳洲的世界級上游生產資產和下游零售業務的優勢。我們實現了創紀錄的鉀肥銷量，降低了營運成本並提高了零售利潤。我們繼續採取行動提高盈利和現金流的質量，重點是提高為核心市場種植者提供服務的能力，保持低成本地位和資產可靠性，並為公司的成長做好準備。最後，我想就我們昨天宣布的 CFO 換句話說幾句話。

Mark Thompson will be moving into the CFO role on August 26. Mark has been with the company for 13 years and has held numerous executive and senior leadership positions, currently serving as our Chief Commercial Officer. He brings a strong track record of execution, proven financial and strategic acumen and in-depth knowledge of our business that will support the advancement of our strategic priorities and drive a focused approach to capital allocation. On behalf of the Nutrien team, I would also like to thank Pedro for his service and commitment to Nutrien over the last five years. To support the transition, Pedro will move into an Advisory role until the end of the year.

Mark Thompson 將於 8 月 26 日出任財務長。他擁有良好的執行記錄、久經考驗的財務和策略敏銳度以及對我們業務的深入了解，這將支持我們策略重點的推進，並推動集中的資本配置方法。我還要代表 Nutrien 團隊感謝 Pedro 在過去五年中對 Nutrien 的服務和承諾。為了支持這項過渡，佩德羅將擔任顧問職務直至今年年底。

We will now be happy to take your questions.

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）Chris Parkinson，Wolfe Research。

Great. Just given the performance in retail and kind of the puts and takes over the last season or 2, could you just potentially speak to what you're seeing in end market grower demands in both of your major or, or I should say three perhaps, what you're hearing from growers, where your inventory levels are? Just anything that we could help compartmentalize where we stand today versus normalized -- perhaps more of a normalized set up for '25 and '26?

偉大的。考慮到零售業的表現以及上一季或第二季的看跌期權和接管情況，您能否談談您在兩個專業或（或者我應該說三個）中看到的終端市場種植者需求？從種植者那裡聽到了什麼，您的庫存水平在哪裡？只要我們能幫助區分我們今天的立場與正常化的情況——也許更多的是為「25」和「26」制定的正常化設定？

Yes. Great. Thanks for the question, Chris. And yes, obviously, with some softening ag commodity prices, we've seen that impact grower sentiment. That's true.

是的。偉大的。謝謝你的提問，克里斯。是的，顯然，隨著農業大宗商品價格的疲軟，我們已經看到這對種植者的情緒產生了影響。這是真的。

At the same time, if we look at what cost of inputs is done that grower affordability is still there and all the incentives exist for growers to maximize yields. But certainly, Jeff can talk about what he's seeing on the ground in key regions like North America and Australia.

同時，如果我們看看投入成本是多少，種植者的承受能力仍然存在，並且種植者存在最大化產量的所有激勵措施。但當然，傑夫可以談論他在北美和澳洲等關鍵地區的實地所見。

Yes. Thanks, Chris, and good question. And obviously, we would -- growers love to see commodityprices higher. If I look at our business, we had, I think, a very strong print in the second quarter. And more importantly, we had very strong margins across all three shelves of our business, crop protection, seed and fertilizer.

是的。謝謝克里斯，這是個好問題。顯然，種植者希望看到大宗商品價格上漲。如果我看看我們的業務，我認為我們在第二季度的表現非常強勁。更重要的是，我們在作物保護、種子和化肥這三個業務領域都擁有非常強勁的利潤率。

And if I look at it from a grower standpoint, and if I look at what USDA is projecting from crop yield standpoint, I can tell you that I haven't seen growers pull back on giving their crops, the inputs they need to maximize yields going forward. We think that from an inventory standpoint, we're in a really good position right now. And we had a real strong focus on getting our inventory down as low as we possibly could. Through the first half, we brought our inventory down roughly $700 million. A large part of that is in the crop protection shelf, and we have a very clear focus on doing that.

如果我從種植者的角度來看，如果我從作物產量的角度看美國農業部的預測，我可以告訴你，我沒有看到種植者放棄給予他們的作物，他們需要最大限度地提高產量的投入繼續前進。我們認為，從庫存的角度來看，我們現在處於非常有利的位置。我們非常注重盡可能降低庫存。上半年，我們的庫存減少了約 7 億美元。其中很大一部分是在作物保護貨架上，我們非常明確地致力於做到這一點。

And probably more impressive is we've been able to bring our inventory down in each of the geographies. And probably more importantly, we brought it down just under $250 million in our Brazil business. And so again, if I look going forward, if we pull the yields off that are projected, there's going to be an awful lot of nutrient removal from the soil and we get an open fall, I would expect that we would see strong demand for [MP&K] as we go into the fall season. Again, that's going to be weather dependent, but again, it's a really solid print across the first half. We've seen margins return to what we consider to be historical margins, some of our (inaudible) that may be a bit above historical margins.

也許更令人印象深刻的是我們已經能夠降低每個地區的庫存。也許更重要的是，我們的巴西業務減少了近 2.5 億美元。因此，如果我展望未來，如果我們實現預期的產量，將會從土壤中去除大量養分，並且我們會出現開放式秋季，我預計我們會看到對[MP&K] 當我們進入秋季時。同樣，這將取決於天氣，但同樣，上半場的表現非常紮實。我們已經看到利潤率回到了我們認為的歷史利潤率，其中一些（聽不清楚）可能略高於歷史利潤率。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

安德魯‧黃（Andrew Wong），加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

So just on the potash segment, at the moment, you've got six operating potash mines. They're operating at about an 80%, 85% operating rate. Could it make sense to maybe curtail production or shut down one of the higher cost mines like you had done previously, advance delay and consolidate production, so it's a little bit more efficient around fewer mines, which could potentially save on costs?

因此，僅在鉀肥領域，目前就有六個正在運作的鉀肥礦。他們的開工率約為 80%、85%。像您之前所做的那樣，削減產量或關閉成本較高的礦山之一、提前推遲並鞏固生產是否有意義，這樣在減少礦山數量的情況下效率會更高一些，這可能會節省成本？

Thank you, Andrew, for the question. And I can assure you that we've looked at that very closely over the years. And one of the benefits of having 6-mines and the flexibility in production is the ability to respond to our customers. Because even this year where we've seen delayed contracts in India and China, which is, of course, standard-grade products, we have the ability to produce additional granular and serve granular markets while we are watching delays in those standard grade markets. And so that flexibility among that 6-mine network allows us to, as I said, meet the needs of our customers.

謝謝安德魯提出的問題。我可以向你保證，多年來我們一直在非常仔細地研究這個問題。擁有 6 個礦場和生產彈性的好處之一是能夠回應客戶的需求。因為即使今年我們在印度和中國看到了延遲的合約（當然是標準級產品），我們也有能力生產額外的顆粒並服務於顆粒市場，同時我們正在觀察這些標準級市場的延遲。因此，正如我所說，6 個礦山網路之間的靈活性使我們能夠滿足客戶的需求。

Curtailing one mine definitely limits that flexibility because we have some mines that produce more standard grade and some mines that produce more granular products. So I would say, in this environment, again, where we've seen shifting trade flows, we've seen additional volume coming out of Russia and Belarus, and we've seen a mix -- a balance shifting between granular and standard grade markets, that flexibility is actually a big advantage for us, and it's an advantage that is playing out certainly as we speak and one that we want to preserve because it does create value for shareholders.

削減一個礦山肯定會限制這種靈活性，因為我們有一些礦山生產更多標準品位，而另一些礦山則生產更多顆粒產品。所以我想說，在這種環境下，我們再次看到了貿易流量的變化，我們看到了來自俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的額外交易量，而且我們看到了一種混合——顆粒等級和標準等級之間的平衡轉變市場上，這種靈活性實際上對我們來說是一個很大的優勢，就在我們說話的時候，這一優勢肯定正在發揮作用，我們希望保留這一優勢，因為它確實為股東創造了價值。

Jacob Bout, CIBC.

雅各·布特，CIBC。

I had a few questions about the unauthorized execution of that derivatives contract that resulted in that large charge. Just want to understand, what was the situation that led up to that? Was it -- is it kind of normal course steps such a large exposure? Is this only a Brazil issue? And then maybe just comment on your use of derivatives as a risk management strategy.

我對衍生性商品合約未經授權執行導致巨額費用有幾個疑問。只是想了解一下，是什麼情況導致了這種情況？如此大的風險暴露是正常的嗎？這只是巴西的問題嗎？然後也許只是評論一下您使用衍生性商品作為風險管理策略的情況。

Good. Thank you, Jacob. So to answer your specific question, was this in the normal course? The answer is no. What led up to it was, yes, obviously, we're doing a lot of work in Brazil and some organizational changes that led to challenges on segregation of duties and some of the checks and balances, governance and controls that we have in place.

好的。謝謝你，雅各。那麼，回答你的具體問題，這是正常情況嗎？答案是否定的。是的，顯然，導致這一情況的原因是，我們在巴西做了很多工作，並進行了一些組織變革，這些變革導致了職責分離以及我們現有的一些制衡、治理和控制方面的挑戰。

We identified that quickly, we dealt with it quickly, and we have remediated the issue. It's certainly only contained to Brazil, and we've had our auditors have a look at all of this and certainly on a path to remediation. With respect to how we use instruments to hedge, I'll pass that over to Pedro to provide some more explanation.

我們很快就發現了這一點，我們很快就解決了這個問題，並且我們已經修復了這個問題。它當然只限於巴西，我們已經讓我們的審計員檢查了所有這些，並且肯定正在採取補救措施。關於我們如何使用工具進行對沖，我將把它交給 Pedro 來提供更多解釋。

Thank you. Jacob, what we use is a typical combination of forwards and options. So there's nothing too exotic there to basically cover positions that we have short in dollars for that position. But as mentioned by Ken, I think the issues were more actions that we're taking outside of the normal policy. And those were quickly identified, rectified, and we have all the controls being put in place now that we are quite confident will be totally remediating the situation for the future.

謝謝。雅各布，我們使用的是典型的前鋒和選擇權組合。因此，沒有什麼太奇特的東西可以基本上彌補我們在該頭寸上的美元空頭部位。但正如肯所提到的，我認為問題在於我們在正常政策之外採取了更多行動。這些問題很快就得到了識別和糾正，我們現在已經採取了所有控制措施，我們非常有信心能夠完全糾正未來的情況。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，BMO 資本市場。

Ken and team, you had your Investor Day in June. It was less than -- fewer than two months ago. And I think the focus of that event really seeing how you're going to grow retail over the next couple of years from about $1.75 billion this year, pick up maybe $0.25 billion of EBITDA over the next couple of years. With your update now, you're guiding down retail $150 million lower. And what strikes me is how do you reconcile your view less than two months ago?

Ken 和他的團隊，你們在六月度過了投資者日。那是不到兩個月前的事。我認為該活動的重點是真正了解未來幾年零售業將如何從今年約 17.5 億美元成長，到未來幾年 EBITDA 可能達到 2.5 億美元。現在根據您的更新，您將指導零售額降低 1.5 億美元。讓我印象深刻的是，你如何調和不到兩個月前的觀點？

This is a big growth engine for Nutrien. But now you're guiding down retail, you're making that challenge harder. Do you still stick to those targets what's changed? Do you need to review everything? What do you think?

這是 Nutrien 的一個巨大的成長引擎。但現在你正在引導零售業的發展，你讓這項挑戰變得更加困難。改變後的目標你還堅持嗎？您需要檢查所有內容嗎？你怎麼認為？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Joel. And we absolutely still believe in those targets and are in fact, progressing towards those targets. When we talk about our North American and Australian business organic growth, or what we can do on proprietary products and network optimization and some of the investments we're making in our digital platform. If we look at the margin improvements in the first half of 2024, we're very encouraged by the path that we're on in North America and Australia.

是的。謝謝你的提問，喬爾。我們絕對仍然相信這些目標，並且事實上正在朝著這些目標邁進。當我們談論我們的北美和澳洲業務有機成長，或者我們在專有產品和網路優化方面可以做些什麼以及我們在數位平台上進行的一些投資時。如果我們看看 2024 年上半年的利潤率改善情況，我們對北美和澳洲的發展道路感到非常鼓舞。

When we talk about guiding down at the moment, we essentially have two challenges. One is what we talked about in Brazil. And as it relates to Brazil, we can talk more about the challenges that we've seen in terms of taking longer for that market to stabilize. We were looking to -- if our inventories to clear out through 2024 and so we could emerge into 2025 in a better position. That said, we've seen some changes with grower buying patterns where there's been a shift to generic crop protection products and even straight commodity fertilizers, which is having the effect of taking longer for in-country inventories to clear through the system.

當我們現在談論向下引導時，我們本質上面臨兩個挑戰。一是我們在巴西談到的。就巴西而言，我們可以更多地討論我們所看到的市場需要更長的時間才能穩定下來的挑戰。我們希望——如果我們的庫存能夠在 2024 年之前清理乾淨，那麼我們就可以在 2025 年處於更好的地位。也就是說，我們看到種植者購買模式發生了一些變化，開始轉向通用作物保護產品，甚至直接商品化肥，這導致國內庫存需要更長的時間才能通過系統清理。

We've also seen some unfavorable weather conditions, and we're also dealing with a change in buyer behavior where it's just-in-time purchasing on the farm, and that obviously creates challenges through the supply chain and so on. We do have a plan in Brazil, and it is a plan where we're going to, as we speak, improving margins. We've talked about closing 21 locations. We've talked about curtailing three blenders, cost reduction initiatives and certainly working down our inventories, and that's happening as we speak. When we step back, we believe in our presence in Brazilian agriculture, and we believe in that market, it's just taking time to stabilize.

我們也看到了一些不利的天氣條件，而且我們也正在應對買家行為的變化，即在農場及時採購，這顯然給供應鏈等帶來了挑戰。我們在巴西確實有一個計劃，正如我們所說，這個計劃旨在提高利潤率。我們已經討論過關閉 21 個地點。我們已經討論過削減三台攪拌機、降低成本的舉措，當然還有減少我們的庫存，就在我們說話的時候，這一切正在發生。當我們退後一步時，我們相信我們在巴西農業中的存在，我們相信這個市場，只是需要時間來穩定。

So again, when we talk about the challenges and the guide down in our retail EBITDA, Brazil plays a huge role in that, and we are on a path to a better day in Brazil. The other one is we're always dealing with weather in agriculture, and it is true that we had a wet spring in May in North America that we didn't see all the product go to ground that we would normally have seen. We're heading into the fall application season here. This crop in North America is going to pull a lot of crop nutrition out of the ground. We had a very strong summer fill program.

因此，當我們再次談論零售業 EBITDA 的挑戰和指南時，巴西在其中發揮著巨大作用，我們正在巴西邁向更好的一天。另一個是我們在農業中總是要應對天氣問題，確實，北美五月有一個潮濕的春天，我們沒有看到我們通常會看到的所有產品都落到地裡。我們即將進入秋季申請季。北美的這種作物將從地下吸收大量作物營養。我們有一個非常強大的夏季補充計劃。

And so that as we head into the fall, we're looking to -- when they're pending a strong fall application season. So it's all to say, Joel, that we absolutely believe in what we talked about at Investor Day, we're dealing with some near-term challenges here that we have a plan for.

因此，當我們進入秋季時，我們希望——當他們等待一個強勁的秋季申請季節時。所以，喬爾，我們絕對相信我們在投資者日所討論的內容，我們正在應對一些近期挑戰，我們已經制定了計劃。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

本‧瑟雷爾，巴克萊銀行。

Just two real quick ones. So one, as you look into the upgrade of your potash volumes globally, but then at the same time, your internal guidance raise is a little more muted, could you quantify what your expectation is as the potential disruption on the rail strike that you've mentioned?

只有兩個真正快的。因此，當您研究全球鉀肥產量的升級時，但與此同時，您的內部指導上調幅度有點小，您能否量化您對鐵路罷工可能造成的干擾的預期？

Yes. Thanks, Ben. And when we guide on potash volumes, we have considered the potential for a short rail strike, but yes, there's a lot of moving parts there. So I'll pass it over to Mark Thompson.

是的。謝謝，本。當我們指導鉀肥產量時，我們考慮了短期鐵路罷工的可能性，但是，是的，那裡有很多移動部件。所以我會把它交給馬克湯普森。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So yes, first and foremost, obviously, we're concerned about the potential for the rail strike, as Pedro mentioned in his comments, given the impact that this would have not only on Nutrien, but on our customers and the broader economy. And given the dependence, particularly of our offshore potash exports through Canpotex on Canadian rail on a consistent basis, really any work stoppage would have some impact on the business. So with the uncertainty surrounding the situation in recent months, we've done a few things that are within our control, charge up our domestic distribution network and Canpotex has also worked to take proactive steps to support customers and charge up their network to the degree that, that's possible.

是的。謝謝，肯。所以，是的，首先也是最重要的是，正如佩德羅在評論中提到的那樣，我們顯然擔心鐵路罷工的可能性，因為這不僅會對Nutrien 產生影響，還會對我們的客戶和更廣泛的經濟產生影響。考慮到我們對加拿大鐵路的依賴，特別是我們透過 Canpotex 進行的海上鉀肥出口，實際上任何停工都會對業務產生一些影響。因此，鑑於近幾個月局勢的不確定性，我們做了一些在我們控制範圍內的事情，為我們的國內分銷網絡充電，Canpotex 也努力採取積極措施來支持客戶，並在一定程度上為他們的網路充電。

Just on your question on guidance, look, I think there's some unknowns here, given this is relatively unprecedented, but in our guidance, we've embedded, we'll say a few days to a maximum of a week of potential impact from a rail strike. And if we were to see that type of eventuality, we would expect that we would be trending towards the lower end of our potash sales volume guidance. Now in the event that we move through the situation, and we don't see a logistics interruption, that would see a situation where we'd be trending more towards the midpoint or potentially even the upper end of our potash sales volume guidance, all else equal. So when you take that into account and you look at us raising our full year global shipment estimate by about 1 million tonnes, I think that probably helps square up the plug on a typical market share for us in that 19% to 19.5% range that we've talked about historically.

就你關於指導的問題而言，我認為這裡存在一些未知因素，因為這是相對史無前例的，但在我們的指導中，我們已經嵌入了幾天到最多一周的潛在影響鐵路罷工。如果我們看到這種可能性，我們預期鉀肥銷量將趨於下限。現在，如果我們克服這種情況，並且我們沒有看到物流中斷，那麼我們將更加傾向於鉀肥銷售量指導的中點，甚至可能是上限，所有否則相等。因此，當您考慮到這一點並看到我們將全年全球出貨量估計提高了約100 萬噸時，我認為這可能有助於我們將典型市場份額擴大到19% 至19.5% 的範圍內。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

I'm wondering if you could talk a bit more about Brazil and maybe crop chemicals, in particular. Your suppliers or some of your suppliers have reported they've obviously speaking about the challenges down there as well. It seems like there's price competition being led by generics, but maybe broader than that. And I'm just wondering, are you seeing -- are your inventory positions there in terms of your costs? Are they where they need to be?

我想知道您是否可以多談談巴西，尤其是農作物化學物質。您的供應商或您的一些供應商報告說，他們顯然也談到了那裡的挑戰。價格競爭似乎是由仿製藥主導的，但範圍可能更廣。我只是想知道，您是否看到——就成本而言，您的庫存狀況是否存在？他們在他們需要的地方嗎？

Are you getting concessions from the suppliers? Or is there more work to be done there? And how much is crop chem of the $150 million reduction in EBITDA for the year. How much of that is associated with crop chem to the extent you can estimate?

您是否向供應商取得優惠？或是還有更多工作要做嗎？今年 EBITDA 減少了 1.5 億美元，作物化學的影響是多少？您可以估計其中有多少與作物化學有關？

Yes. No, thanks, Vincent, and I think you identified a lot of the challenges in crop protection and the (inaudible). And certainly, as you say, they switch to generic crop protection among some farmers is certainly having an impact. But I'll pass it over to Jeff Tarsi to provide more detail.

是的。不，謝謝，文森特，我認為您指出了作物保護和（聽不清楚）的許多挑戰。當然，正如您所說，他們轉向通用作物保護對某些農民來說肯定會產生影響。但我會將其轉交給 Jeff Tarsi 以提供更多詳細資訊。

Yes, Vincent, Thanks. And look, I don't think that anyone's exempt from the market pressures that we've seen in Brazil over the last 18 to 24 months. And that pressure has been particularly intense around the crop chem sector, really started in the back half of last year. And what we have seen, and I think it was mentioned a little bit earlier, is that we're seeing more efforts on the generic side of the market, and we're seeing growers, as they're squeezed financially as well, looking for lower cost options, particularly around generic chemistry from that standpoint. And I think we'll continue to see that for a bit.

是的，文森特，謝謝。看，我認為沒有人能夠免受過去 18 到 24 個月我們在巴西看到的市場壓力。作物化學領域的壓力尤其巨大，這種壓力實際上是從去年下半年開始的。我們所看到的，我想之前已經提到過，我們看到市場在仿製藥方面做出了更多的努力，而且我們看到種植者，因為他們也受到了經濟上的擠壓，正在尋找尋求更低成本的選擇，特別是從這個角度來看，圍繞著通用化學。我想我們會繼續看到這一點。

You mentioned what portion of our business is from a crop chem basis, we're basically a third, a third, a third there from a crop chem fertilizer standpoint. From an inventory standpoint, as I mentioned earlier, we brought our inventory down quarter-over-quarter roughly about $250 million, and a large portion of that -- $250 million for Brazil. And a large portion of that is in the crop chem sector. So I like where we've got ourselves positioned from a crop chem standpoint. And again, we continue to see margin pressure there.

您提到我們業務的哪一部分來自作物化學基礎，從作物化學肥料的角度來看，我們基本上是三分之一、三分之一、三分之一。從庫存的角度來看，正如我之前提到的，我們的庫存環比下降了大約 2.5 億美元，其中很大一部分是巴西的 2.5 億美元。其中很大一部分是在作物化學領域。所以我喜歡從作物化學的角度來看我們的定位。我們再次看到那裡的利潤率壓力。

And while we've done a good job of getting our inventory down, what's important as we go forward is that the risk of the retail industry get their crop chem in that same position that we want to see some alleviations on margins. As Ken mentioned a bit earlier, we're just super focused right now on margin improvement across all three [shelves] of our business, cash generation and again, managing our inventories down just as tight as we can possibly get them.

雖然我們在降低庫存方面做得很好，但在我們前進的過程中，重要的是零售業的作物化學品面臨的風險與我們希望看到利潤率下降的情況相同。正如肯恩之前提到的，我們現在非常關注我們業務所有三個[貨架]的利潤率提高、現金生成以及盡可能嚴格地管理我們的庫存。

Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

本‧艾薩克森，豐業銀行。

So back to Brazil, Ken, you mentioned that you have a plan in place for operational improvements in the near term, but maybe a bit of a longer-term question. You guys have taken roughly $800 million of write-downs in the region over the past year or so and then another $200 million of this FX issue. So $1 billion of challenges against a business that generates somewhere between $80 million and $100 million in EBITDA. Is that right? And what are we playing for here?

回到巴西，肯，您提到您已經制定了近期營運改進計劃，但也許是一個長期問題。在過去一年左右的時間裡，你們在該地區進行了大約 8 億美元的減記，然後在這次外匯發行中減記了 2 億美元。因此，針對一家產生 8,000 萬至 1 億美元 EBITDA 的企業的挑戰是 10 億美元。是這樣嗎？我們在這裡玩的目的是什麼？

And what's still at risk? And how has that run rate changed given that you're making some pivots in the region?

還有什麼風險？鑑於您正在該地區進行一些調整，運行率發生了怎樣的變化？

Yes, thanks and -- thanks for the question, Ben. Yes, we're obviously doing a complete commercial review of our business in Brazil. We're still a small percent of the market, less than 2% of the market in Brazil. And we've been through just a period of extraordinary volatility ever since really the conflict in Eastern Europe. And we're at a time in the market that's challenged for all the reasons that we've talked about today.

是的，謝謝——謝謝你的提問，本。是的，我們顯然正在對我們在巴西的業務進行全面的商業審查。我們的市佔率仍然很小，不到巴西市場的 2%。自從東歐衝突發生以來，我們剛經歷了一段異常動盪的時期。由於我們今天討論的所有原因，我們正處於市場面臨挑戰的時期。

And of course, Brazilian agriculture and Brazilian retail won't be challenged forever because that region continues to grow in terms of agriculture and farmers continue to look for maximizing yields, and therefore, appropriate crop input. So the market is going to come around. We know that. It's a matter of time for us. As Nutrien, yes, we have been assessing how it is that we continue to gain access to Brazilian agriculture as one of the largest potash suppliers into the country as we look at proprietary products and the opportunity to grow that business in Brazil.

當然，巴西農業和零售業不會永遠受到挑戰，因為該地區的農業持續成長，農民繼續尋求產量最大化，因此需要適當的作物投入。所以市場將會出現轉機。我們知道這一點。這對我們來說只是時間問題。作為 Nutrien，是的，我們一直在評估我們作為巴西最大的鉀肥供應商之一如何繼續進入巴西農業，同時我們著眼於專有產品和在巴西發展業務的機會。

And for the balance of it, yes, a strategic review on what makes sense for us going forward, to your point, Ben.

為了平衡它，是的，對我們前進的意義進行戰略審查，就你的觀點而言，本。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

傑夫‧澤考斯卡斯，摩根大通。

Thanks very much. you lowered your retail guide by about $150 million. How much of the lowering came from the weather in the US and how much came from South American operations?

非常感謝。您將零售指南降低了約 1.5 億美元。下降有多少是由於美國的天氣造成的，有多少是由於南美洲的業務造成的？

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. And certainly, the majority of that change was related to everything that we've talked about with respect to Brazil. The impact of wet May in North America, it contributed to about 1/3 of that adjustment.

是的。謝謝，傑夫。當然，大部分的變化都與我們談論巴西的一切有關。北美五月潮濕天氣的影響，約佔調整的 1/3。

Joshua Spector, UBS.

約書亞‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

This is Lucas pain on for Josh. I just wanted to follow up on the pathway for retail towards the 2026 targets. I mean you're sort of pointing to about $1.6 billion in EBITDA this year, and then bridging that to the $2 billion. I mean, over the last five years, retail has only kind of grown EBITDA at a mid-single digit kind of rate. To hit the $2 billion, you're going to need to get up to kind of 12% a year in the next two years.

這是盧卡斯為喬許帶來的痛苦。我只是想跟進零售業實現 2026 年目標的路徑。我的意思是，你指的是今年的 EBITDA 約為 16 億美元，然後將其調整為 20 億美元。我的意思是，在過去的五年裡，零售業的 EBITDA 僅以中位數的速度成長。要達到 20 億美元，您需要在未來兩年內以每年 12% 的速度成長。

So could you please just kind of walk us through the buckets of the growth algorithm, and how you see yourself getting to be able to deliver on that?

那麼您能否向我們介紹成長演算法的各個方面，以及您如何看待自己能夠實現這一目標？

Yes. Thanks, Josh -- sorry it's Lucas. We certainly have that bridge and the path from here to there, and I'll pass it over to Jeff to provide that.

是的。謝謝，喬許——抱歉，是盧卡斯。我們當然有那座橋和從這裡到那裡的路徑，我會將其交給傑夫提供。

Yes. Ken laid out, Josh, a little bit earlier. We laid out in our investor strategy 1.9 to 2.1 and we continue to see a path to that number. As I look at it, I see three different buckets that we need to achieve on to deliver that 1.9 to 2.1. Number one, it starts with the continued momentum in growing our proprietary products business, particularly when we emphasize our plant nutrition and biologicals, we've been growing that business at a pace greater than 10% a year, and we believe we can continue that trajectory through further penetration in our core retail markets.

是的。肯，喬希，稍早一點就躺好了。我們在投資者策略中製定了 1.9 至 2.1，並且我們將繼續看到實現這一數字的途徑。當我審視它時，我發現我們需要實現三個不同的目標才能實現 1.9 到 2.1 的目標。第一，首先是我們專有產品業務的持續成長勢頭，特別是當我們強調我們的植物營養和生物製品時，我們一直以每年 10% 以上的速度增長該業務，我們相信我們可以繼續這一趨勢進一步滲透我們的核心零售市場。

And what's also important is as well as our growth in our international and wholesale channels and working with our commercial teams there. And so that's going to play a significant part in it. But also, we want to have steady and stable growth at our base operations in North America and Australia, consistent with what we delivered over the last five years, and that's going to include network optimization, which we're working on really hard right now. It's going to include organic growth within those base businesses. And then some tuck-ins going forward.

同樣重要的是我們的國際和批發管道的成長以及與那裡的商業團隊的合作。因此，這將在其中發揮重要作用。而且，我們希望北美和澳洲的基地業務能夠穩定成長，與我們過去五年的業績保持一致，其中包括網路優化，我們現在正在努力進行網路優化。它將包括這些基礎業務的有機成長。然後是一些接下來的折疊。

And then last but not least, and we talked a lot about this morning is our Brazil business and that seeing that market stabilize to that effect. So those are the three buckets that we see, and we still think that we're on a path to achieving that.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們今天早上談論了很多我們的巴西業務，以及看到市場穩定下來的結果。這就是我們看到的三個目標，我們仍然認為我們正在實現這一目標。

Stephen Byrne, Bank of America.

史蒂芬伯恩，美國銀行。

Yes. Thanks, Joe. Pardon, Jeff, in response to your comments just now about growing proprietary 10% per year, it looks like our proprietary seed, chemical and nutrients as a percent of the platform slipped in the first half of the year. Is there anything that you can call out that drove that? And as you look into a year where grower margins are looking tight, does that favor a shift to your proprietary products? Or do you see risk that they seek out more generics?

是的。謝謝，喬。請原諒，Jeff，針對您剛才關於每年專有增長 10% 的評論，看起來我們的專有種子、化學品和營養素佔平台的百分比在今年上半年有所下滑。您可以指出有什麼因素推動了這一趨勢嗎？當您展望今年種植者利潤看起來很緊張時，這是否有利於轉向您的專有產品？或者您認為他們尋求更多仿製藥存在風險？

Yes. Thanks, Steve. And I -- first of all, I do think that when we get in these tighter marketing conditions, it favors it, not only just around the not only around the crop protection shift, but I think it favors a bit on our propietary seed business. And again, on our biologicals and crop nutrition and how we feed the crop as we go along through the season with that standpoint. And again, we've seen excellent growth again this year in our plant nutrition and biostimulant space.

是的。謝謝，史蒂夫。我 - 首先，我確實認為，當我們進入這些更嚴格的營銷條件時，它有利於它，不僅圍繞作物保護轉變，而且我認為這對我們的專有種子業務有一點幫助。再次，關於我們的生物製品和作物營養，以及我們如何在整個季節中以這種觀點餵養作物。今年我們的植物營養和生物刺激素領域再次實現了出色的成長。

I'm particularly pleased around one of our products, Terramar, which had about a 300% increase in usage last year. We're up another 75% this year. So we continue to be encouraged by that sector. And then it doesn't get mentioned a lot, but our adjuvants sales year-to-date are up 7%, Steven, and adjuvants make up 5% of our crop protection space, that contribute 13% of our margins. And so it tells us that our people are very focused and our growers are very conscious on continuing to use products to give them the best chance of efficacy.

我對我們的一款產品 Terramar 感到特別滿意，去年它的使用量增加了約 300%。今年我們又成長了 75%。因此，我們繼續受到該行業的鼓舞。然後它並沒有被太多提及，但我們的助劑銷售額今年迄今增長了 7%，史蒂文，助劑占我們作物保護領域的 5%，貢獻了我們利潤的 13%。因此，它告訴我們，我們的員工非常專注，我們的種植者非常有意識地繼續使用產品，以賦予其最佳功效。

When you mentioned that as a percent, it looked like our proprietary business was less. You have to factor in last year that, that would have looked larger due to what we saw as the reset in the fertilizer market last year in the first quarter. And so that would have thrown those percentages out. But our business of -- our proprietary products business continues to be a very bright spot for us. And again, we've got a lot of plans for big growth in that space going forward.

當你提到這個百分比時，看起來我們的自營業務較少。你必須考慮到去年的情況，由於去年第一季化肥市場的重置，這個數字看起來會更大。這樣一來，這些百分比就會被排除在外。但我們的專有產品業務仍然是我們的一個非常亮點。再說一遍，我們有很多計劃，以實現該領域未來的大幅成長。

Aron Ceccarelli, Berenberg.

阿隆·切卡雷利，貝倫貝格。

I would like to ask a question about potash on the supply side. After the renegotiation of the contract, clearly, it seems like both India and China coming back. I would like to understand on the supply side, what you guys have seen from Laos? And how should we think about capacity addition from these guys for the remainder of the year?

我想問一個關於鉀肥供應方面的問題。顯然，在合約重新談判後，印度和中國似乎都捲土重來了。我想了解供應方面，你們從寮國看到了什麼？我們該如何考慮這些人在今年剩餘時間內增加的產能？

Yes. Thanks, Aron. Yes, we look at 2024, and on the demand side, what we've seen has been quite strong this year that led us to increase our view, 69 to 72 million tonnes of shipments through the year. With just about every market increasing demand on the supply side then there -- we look at a balanced market, and that does involve Laos, and it does involve supplies out of Russia and Belarus, but I'll pass it over to Mark to talk about those numbers.

是的。謝謝，阿倫。是的，我們展望 2024 年，在需求方面，我們今年看到的情況相當強勁，這導致我們提高了預期，全年出貨量為 69 至 7,200 萬噸。幾乎每個市場對供應方面的需求都在增加——我們著眼於一個平衡的市場，這確實涉及老撾，也確實涉及俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的供應，但我會把它交給馬克來談談關於這些數字。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So maybe just to kind of summarize how we're looking at the potash market as a whole. I think starting on the demand side of the equation, obviously, a very strong demand profile in the first half of 2024. Across granular markets, we've seen a demand recovery in Southeast Asia, and that's been combined with the continuation of strong domestic consumption of potash in China.

是的。謝謝，肯。所以也許只是總結一下我們如何看待整個鉀肥市場。我認為從需求方面開始，顯然，2024 年上半年的需求狀況非常強勁。

As we've said before, this has all been supported by solid affordability. And really what we see is agronomic need to replenish potash levels globally after a few years of underapplication in key markets. So with the offshore contracts now in place, we do expect a global price floor to be established and standard demand remain strong through the second half of the year. We've mentioned already that we upped our global shipments estimate by 1 million tonnes on both ends of the range, and this is largely owing to stronger-than-expected shipments into China. So to come back to your question on the supply side of the equation, on the supply side, I'd say, for us, really as expected in terms of where the incremental supply has come from to service growth and demand this year, it's really the FSU, incremental supply from Canada and then Laos.

正如我們之前所說，這一切都得到了堅實的承受能力的支持。事實上，我們看到的是，在關鍵市場幾年施用不足之後，全球需要補充鉀肥水平的農業需求。因此，隨著離岸合約的落實，我們預計全球價格下限將會建立，標準需求在今年下半年仍將保持強勁。我們已經提到，我們將全球出貨量預估上調了 100 萬噸，這主要是由於中國的出貨量強於預期。因此，回到你關於等式供應方面的問題，在供應方面，我想說，對於我們來說，就今年增量供應來自服務增長和需求而言，確實符合預期，實際上是前蘇聯，增量供應來自加拿大，然後是寮國。

And really, we've seen the pace of shipments from the FSU in the first half generally in line with the levels we saw in the second half of last year. Russian supply is effectively back to 2021 levels. And similarly, with Laos, we've seen shipments in the first half generally in line with the second half of last year. I think stepping back more broadly on Laos, as we've continued to read in publications and are aware, and I think that Laotian producers have announced themselves continue to experience challenges with production. We understand there's been continued water inflow issues that have hindered the achievement of production levels that were previously targeted.

事實上，我們看到上半年 FSU 的出貨量與去年下半年的水平基本一致。俄羅斯供應量實際上已恢復至 2021 年水準。同樣，對於寮國，我們看到上半年的出貨量與去年下半年基本一致。我認為更廣泛地討論老撾問題，因為我們繼續在出版物中閱讀並意識到這一點，而且我認為老撾製片人已經宣布自己繼續面臨製作方面的挑戰。我們了解到，持續存在的進水問題阻礙了先前目標生產水準的實現。

And as we look out over the medium term, say, the next two to three years, we do expect that we will see some incremental supply from Laos, potentially 1 million tonnes in our SMD. However, disclosures out of laos have also taken larger expansions off the table from the previously targeted time frame. So yes, I think when we step back from all of that, as Ken said, we continue to see a relatively balanced market in 2024 with supply and demand. And I think actually as we look out to the next couple of years into 2025 and 2026, we expect to see global demand continue to grow, but there is less incremental supply available over that period. So we expect we could see some tightening and firming in the market over that time horizon.

從中期來看，例如未來兩到三年，我們確實預期寮國將出現一些增量供應，我們的 SMD 可能會增加 100 萬噸。然而，寮國披露的資訊也使得先前目標時間範圍內的更大規模擴張被排除在外。所以，是的，我認為當我們拋開這一切之後，正如 Ken 所說，我們將繼續看到 2024 年市場的供需相對平衡。我認為實際上，當我們展望未來幾年（2025 年和 2026 年）時，我們預計全球需求將繼續增長，但在此期間可用的增量供應較少。因此，我們預計在此期間市場可能會出現一些緊縮和堅挺。

Adam Samuelson, Goldman Sachs.

亞當·薩繆爾森，高盛。

Maybe just continuing on that line of questioning, Mark, just with -- you're taking the range on global shipments up 1 million tonnes. I mean you guys talk about 20% or so market share. So that's 200,000 tonnes. It's what you lowered -- increased, certainly at the low end of the range. Why wouldn't -- is it just the rail strike that would take you away from increasing the high end?

也許只是繼續這個問題，馬克，只是——你把全球發貨量的範圍提高到了 100 萬噸。我的意思是你們談論的是 20% 左右的市佔率。也就是 20 萬噸。這就是你降低的——增加的，當然在範圍的低端。為什麼不呢——僅僅是鐵路罷工會讓你無法增加高端產品嗎？

Is it just the inventories coming out of the first half and known turnarounds in the fourth quarter? And I guess, how should we think about the uptake on summer fill in North America and what you're seeing from a North American affordability demand for corn and soybean growers where certain new crop prices don't point to a lot of profitability for the grower over the next 12 months?

只是上半年的庫存和第四季已知的周轉情況嗎？我想，我們應該如何考慮北美夏季灌漿的吸收情況，以及從北美對玉米和大豆種植者的負擔能力需求中看到的情況，其中某些新作物價格並不意味著玉米和大豆種植者有很大的盈利能力未來 12 個月的種植者？

Great, Adam. Yes, I'll quickly pass over to Mark here. But I think you've actually identified many of the moving parts within our guidance range. And if you look at today without a rail strike, certainly, we expect to see strong volumes, and you see that reflected in our own production volumes in the first half. You see that reflected in our cash cost of production, $53 per tonne.

太棒了，亞當。是的，我很快就會轉給馬克。但我認為您實際上已經在我們的指導範圍內確定了許多活動部件。如果你看看今天沒有鐵路罷工的情況，當然，我們預計會看到強勁的產量，你會看到這反映在我們上半年的產量中。您可以看到，這反映在我們的現金生產成本中，即每噸 53 美元。

And if -- without some challenges on rail, the year is, from a volume perspective, shaping up to be a very good one, maybe one of the best. And then, yes, Mark can certainly talk about additional color on guidance range and rail. And then also, yes, very strong uptick on our summer fill. But over to you, Mark.

如果鐵路方面沒有遇到一些挑戰，那麼從數量的角度來看，今年將是非常好的一年，也許是最好的一年之一。然後，是的，馬克當然可以談論指導範圍和軌道上的附加顏色。然後，是的，我們的夏季填充量非常強勁。但是交給你了，馬克。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So yes, again, I think you and Ken both summarized it well. I think if you were to look at what we've said in terms of rail strike earlier in the call, absent that, you'd see our typical market share targets to be right in line with what our guidance is implying relative to our global shipment guidance. And so obviously, we continue to watch that situation closely.

是的。謝謝，肯。所以，是的，我認為你和肯都總結得很好。我認為，如果你看看我們在電話會議早些時候就鐵路罷工所說的話，如果沒有的話，你會發現我們的典型市場份額目標與我們的指導相對於我們的全球市場份額的暗示是一致的。顯然，我們將繼續密切關注這一情況。

We're hopeful that there's a resolution there that doesn't impact the business. But ultimately, from a commercial perspective, really nothing has changed with respect to our marketing strategy or our typical market share. I think in North America, as you pointed out and has been said earlier in the call, we are seeing some softness in commodity prices, but I think potash affordability is really in a strong place. We had an opportunity a couple of weeks ago to meet with all of our major customers in North America. I would say, across the Nutrien complex, sentiment is certainly the most positive on potash in terms of that affordability driving a strong bent towards consumption in the second half of the year.

我們希望有一個不會影響業務的解決方案。但最終，從商業角度來看，我們的行銷策略或典型市場佔有率其實沒有任何改變。我認為在北美，正如您所指出的以及之前在電話會議中所說的那樣，我們看到大宗商品價格有些疲軟，但我認為鉀肥的承受能力確實很強。幾週前，我們有機會會見了北美的所有主要客戶。我想說，在整個 Nutrien 綜合體中，就鉀肥的承受能力推動下半年消費的強烈傾向而言，鉀肥的情緒肯定是最積極的。

If you look at our summer fill program, we came through the spring season, notwithstanding some of the weather challenges with extremely depleted inventories across the channel in North America. Certainly, we saw that with all of our customers. We saw that within our Nutrien Ag Solutions business, and that set us up very well for a very strong summer fill program. So at this point, we're effectively sold out through the third quarter and effectively shipping into the first portion of October to deliver on that fill program. So Yes.

如果你看看我們的夏季補貨計劃，你會發現，儘管面臨一些天氣挑戰，北美海峽兩岸的庫存極度枯竭，但我們還是度過了春季。當然，我們在所有客戶身上都看到了這一點。我們在 Nutrien Ag Solutions 業務中看到了這一點，這為我們制定非常強大的夏季補充計劃奠定了良好的基礎。因此，目前，我們在第三季度實際上已售罄，並在 10 月上半月有效交付以實現該填充計劃。所以是的。

I think the response we've seen on potash has been very good. We're not concerned on the consumption side of the equation in North America. But I'd say, really, that channel behavior is certainly normal.

我認為我們在鉀肥方面看到的反應非常好。我們不關心北美的消費方面。但我想說的是，通路行為確實是正常的。

Richard Garchitorena, Wells Fargo.

理查德·加奇托雷納，富國銀行。

If I could ask on capital allocation. So you've got a strong balance sheet, fairly low leverage and strong free cash flow this quarter. You've cut your CapEx needs for this year by $400 million to $500 million versus last year. And you've also guided obviously on the Investor Day, it's a significant production growth to 2026, which we would assume is supported by ongoing demand growth. So my question is, we have all these factors in play.

如果我可以詢問資本分配問題。因此，本季您擁有強勁的資產負債表、相當低的槓桿率和強勁的自由現金流。與去年相比，您今年的資本支出需求減少了 4 億至 5 億美元。您在投資者日也明確指出，到 2026 年，產量將大幅成長，我們認為這是由持續的需求成長所支撐的。所以我的問題是，所有這些因素都在發揮作用。

Your stock price has been fairly weak. What would we need to see for you to step up return of capital in the form of buybacks? And how should we see that play out potentially over the next 6 to 12 months?

你的股價一直相當疲軟。我們需要看到什麼才能讓您以回購的形式增加資本回報？我們該如何看待這種情況在未來 6 到 12 個月內可能發生的情況？

Yes. Thanks, Rich. I think you identified some of the numbers there in our CapEx program, $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion, which includes about $500 million, and that's split between what we've talked about in retail, proprietary and network optimization. And then the other half goes into our upstream business, looking at nitrogen, brownfield investments, debottlenecking and mine automation and -- in potash. So we have a very targeted and I would say, exciting program on the investing side that, along with sustaining CapEx, adds up to that $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion.

是的。謝謝，里奇。我想您已經確定了我們的資本支出計劃中的一些數字，22 億美元到 23 億美元，其中包括約 5 億美元，這部分資金分為我們在零售、專有和網絡優化方面討論的資金。然後另一半進入我們的上游業務，著眼於氮、棕地投資、消除瓶頸和礦山自動化以及鉀肥。因此，我們在投資方面有一個非常有針對性的、令人興奮的計劃，加上持續的資本支出，總計達 22 億至 23 億美元。

As you say, we've got about $450 million in leases and then about $1 billion for the dividend. So that all adds up to about $3.7 billion. And as we watch the year unfold and as we head into the fall here and into 2025, as you say, as we look at incremental cash above those levels, certainly, we will look at buying back our shares, among other opportunities, which could include ongoing retail tuck-in opportunities in North America and Australia, and maintaining the flexibility for those when they come up, but also, as you say, share repurchases.

正如你所說，我們有大約 4.5 億美元的租賃費用，還有大約 10 億美元的股息。全部加起來約 37 億美元。正如您所說，當我們看著這一年的展開，當我們進入秋季和進入2025 年時，當我們看到高於這些水平的增量現金時，我們當然會考慮回購我們的股票以及其他機會，這可能包括北美和澳洲持續存在的零售機會，並在這些機會出現時保持靈活性，而且正如你所說，還有股票回購。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

艾德蘭·羅德里格斯，瑞穗。

Forgive me if that question was asked before. On phosphate, you seem to have some concerns about affordability given the persistence of the high prices there. But yesterday, like the biggest player in the space didn't seem to have any concern about the high prices. They think they can last for a long time and the disconnect between phosphate and perlite prices shouldn't be an issue. But like what makes you concerned about like the high prices of phosphate and how detrimental it could be to demand and affordability going forward?

如果之前有人問過這個問題，請原諒我。關於磷酸鹽，鑑於那裡的高價格持續存在，您似乎對承受能力有些擔憂。但昨天，就像該領域最大的參與者似​​乎不擔心高價。他們認為它們可以持續很長時間，磷酸鹽和珍珠岩價格之間的脫節不應該成為問題。但是，是什麼讓您擔心磷酸鹽的高價格以及它對未來的需求和承受能力有多大損害？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Edlain. We just talked about affordability and margins as it relates to potash and our summer fill program. It is a bit different situation in phosphate with some of the tightness in the phosphate market. And what we can tell you is what we're seeing talking to farmers through our downstream channel.

是的。謝謝你的提問，艾德蘭。我們剛剛討論了與鉀肥和我們的夏季填充計劃相關的承受能力和利潤。磷酸鹽市場的情況有些不同，磷酸鹽市場有些緊張。我們可以告訴您的是我們透過下游管道與農民交談的情況。

So I'll start with Jeff to maybe provide some of that color, and then maybe over to Mark to talk a little bit about the fundamentals.

因此，我將從 Jeff 開始，也許會提供一些這種顏色，然後可能會由 Mark 談談一些基本原理。

Yes. And as I stated earlier, when I look at the fall and the second half of the year, obviously, fall fertilizer activity and application will be weather dependent. We've had three good years in a row, and I'm banking on a fourth year here. If I look at the three nutrients, and Mark talked about this earlier, potash is appearing probably very in line from an affordability standpoint. The phosphate side of it is a bit more of the question mark, and I think that growers were probably expecting that, that price would come more in line with some of the other nutrients.

是的。正如我之前所說，當我觀察秋季和下半年時，顯然，秋季肥料活動和施用將取決於天氣。我們已經連續度過了美好的三年，我希望在這裡度過第四年。如果我看看這三種營養物質，馬克之前就談到這一點，那麼從負擔能力的角度來看，鉀肥可能非常符合要求。磷酸鹽方面的問號更多一些，我認為種植者可能預計這一價格將與其他一些營養素更加一致。

So if I think if there's a weakness out there in the fall from an application standpoint, I think that we're seeing early on that, that could be in the phosphate market. I don't want to really project it, what I think that could be for the fall, but we do see some softness in that side of it. We see growers asking a lot of questions from an affordability standpoint. Mark, I might kick it over to you.

因此，如果我認為從應用的角度來看，秋季​​是否存在弱點，我認為我們很早就看到了，這可能是在磷酸鹽市場。我不想真正預測它，我認為這可能會發生在秋季，但我們確實看到了這方面的一些弱點。我們看到種植者從負擔能力的角度提出了很多問題。馬克，我可以把它交給你。

Sure. Thanks, Jeff. Yes, I think I'll just reiterate almost exactly what Jeff said from a different perspective, which is when we've been talking to our customers across the retail channel, particularly in North America, it's true that global supply demand is very tight currently for phosphate. So that has led to good participation in fill programs because phosphate is needed. At the same time, as Jeff pointed out, we've got a pretty large price disparity between potash and phosphate currently in the market.

當然。謝謝，傑夫。是的，我想我會從不同的角度重申傑夫所說的，那就是當我們透過零售管道與我們的客戶交談時，特別是在北美，目前全球供應需求確實非常緊張對於磷酸鹽。由於需要磷酸鹽，因此這導致了填充計劃的良好參與。同時，正如傑夫所指出的那樣，目前市面上鉀肥和磷酸鹽之間的價格差距相當大。

So certainly, in those discussions with our customers, similar to Jeff's discussion with his team and growers, there are concerns about affordability and concerns about potential demand destruction in portions of the phosphate market as we get into later in the fall season. Now when you look at our phosphate business, in particular, obviously, we've got a very diversified phosphate business across both ag and industrial markets. We don't see an impact from that from a volume standpoint for us because we are positioned a little bit differently. But certainly, for our customers and down at the grower level on Nutrien Ag Solutions, it's something we're going to continue to watch very closely.

因此，當然，在與我們客戶的討論中，類似於傑夫與他的團隊和種植者的討論，人們擔心負擔能力，以及隨著我們進入秋季後期，部分磷酸鹽市場的潛在需求受到破壞。現在，當你看看我們的磷酸鹽業務時，尤其明顯的是，我們在農業和工業市場上都有非常多元化的磷酸鹽業務。從銷售的角度來看，我們並沒有看到這種影響，因為我們的定位有點不同。但當然，對於我們的客戶以及 Nutrien Ag Solutions 的種植者來說，我們將繼續密切關注這一點。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Jeff Holzman. Please continue.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給傑夫霍爾茲曼。請繼續。

Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available if you have follow-up questions. Have a great day.

感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有後續問題，可以聯絡投資者關係團隊。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。