Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to Nutrien's 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow after the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Holzman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。正式演講後將舉行問答環節。謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音中。我現在想將電話會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁傑夫霍爾茲曼 (Jeff Holzman)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain material assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form filed with Canadian and U.S. Securities Commissions. I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, President and CEO; and Pedro Farah, our CFO, for opening comments before we take your questions.

謝謝你，接線生。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。當我們進行本次電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計劃和前景所做的各種聲明都包含前瞻性資訊。在做出這些結論和預測時應用了某些實質假設。因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性資訊中包含的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的更多資訊包含在我們向股東提交的季度報告以及我們最近的年度報告、MD&A 以及向加拿大和美國證券委員會提交的年度資訊表中。我現在會把電話轉給總裁兼執行長 Ken Seitz；我們的財務長佩德羅·法拉赫 (Pedro Farah) 在我們回答您的問題之前發表了評論。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today as we recap our 2023 results and provide an outlook for the business and our strategic priorities for the year ahead. Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $6.1 billion in 2023. We generated $5.1 billion in cash from operations, supported by the countercyclical release of working capital in retail. In response to changing market conditions, we took several actions during the year to enhance free cash flow, including a reduction in planned capital and operating expenditures of approximately $400 million. We maintained a balanced approach to capital allocation, investing to sustain and grow our assets and returning a total of $2.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. As the year progressed, we saw increased market stability and strong fertilizer demand in North America, supported by improved grower affordability and extended fall application season and low channel inventories. Demand in key offshore markets also increased in the second half. However, the level of market stabilization varied by product and geography.

早安.感謝您今天加入我們，我們將回顧 2023 年的業績，並展望未來一年的業務前景和策略重點。 Nutrien 到 2023 年實現調整後 EBITDA 為 61 億美元。在零售業營運資金反週期釋放的支持下，我們從營運中產生了 51 億美元現金。為了因應不斷變化的市場狀況，我們在這一年中採取了多項行動來增強自由現金流，包括減少約 4 億美元的計畫資本和營運支出。我們保持平衡的資本配置方式，進行投資以維持和成長我們的資產，並透過股利和股票回購向股東返還總計 21 億美元。隨著時間的推移，我們看到北美市場穩定性增強，化肥需求強勁，這得益於種植者負擔能力的提高、秋季施肥季節的延長和渠道庫存的減少。下半年主要離岸市場的需求也有所增加。然而，市場穩定的程度因產品和地區而異。

From Nutrien sales volumes for our global retail business increased by 10% in 2023 as growers work to replenish nutrients in the soil. Due to the strength of grower demand in all regions, we ended the year with retail fertilizer inventories down 10% compared to the prior year. Crop Protection sales volumes and margins in North America returned to normalized levels in the later part of the year, and we continue to be opportunistic in our approach to restocking inventories. In Brazil, we significantly reduced our crop protection inventories in the fourth quarter, but margins remained challenged due to the persistence of higher inventory in the channel. For the full year, Nutrien Ag Solutions delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion, down from the record prior year and well below the level we would view as normalized earnings. We tightly managed inventory and advanced a number of strategic initiatives that position our retail business for growth in 2024 and beyond.

隨著種植者努力補充土壤中的養分，Nutrien 的全球零售業務銷售在 2023 年增加了 10%。由於所有地區種植者的需求強勁，我們年底的化肥零售庫存比上年下降了 10%。北美作物保護銷售和利潤率在今年下半年恢復到正常水平，我們繼續採取機會主義方式補充庫存。在巴西，我們在第四季大幅減少了植保庫存，但由於通路庫存持續較高，利潤率仍面臨挑戰。 Nutrien Ag Solutions 全年的調整後 EBITDA 為 15 億美元，低於上一年的創紀錄水平，也遠低於我們認為的正常化盈利水平。我們嚴格管理庫存並推進了多項策略舉措，使我們的零售業務能夠在 2024 年及以後實現成長。

One of the areas of growth is our proprietary products portfolio. In 2023, these high-value products contributed gross margin of $1 billion, including increased sales and margins from our proprietary plant nutritional and biostimulant product lines. Gross margin for our crop nutritional products has grown at an annual rate of 15% over the last 5 years, and we plan to continue to invest in our supply capabilities through differentiated product offerings and expanded manufacturing capacity. We completed a number of tuck-in acquisitions in 2023 and will pursue targeted opportunities in our core markets going forward. As it relates to Brazil, the long-term prospects for agriculture are positive, and it remains an important crop input market for Nutrien.

成長領域之一是我們的專有產品組合。 2023 年，這些高價值產品貢獻了 10 億美元的毛利率，其中包括我們專有的植物營養和生物刺激劑產品線的銷售額和利潤的增加。過去 5 年，我們的農作物營養產品毛利率以每年 15% 的速度成長，我們計劃透過差異化產品供應和擴大製造能力繼續投資於我們的供應能力。我們在 2023 年完成了多項收購，並將在未來的核心市場中尋求有針對性的機會。就巴西而言，農業的長期前景是樂觀的，它仍然是 Nutrien 的重要農作物投入市場。

In the near term, our focus will continue to be on the integration of recent acquisitions and optimizing our cost structure in this market. In Potash, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion in 2023, down from the prior year's record due to lower realized prices. North American sales volumes increased significantly in the second half of the year, supported by low channel inventories and a strong fall application season. We utilized our network flexibility to increase granular Potash production and position products across our distribution channel in anticipation of higher seasonal demand and prices in North America. Our offshore Potash sales volumes also increased in the second half of 2023, driven by stronger demand in Brazil and China, while net realized prices were impacted by lower global benchmarks and higher logistics costs associated with outages at Canpotex's export terminals. Our Potash controllable cash cost of $58 per ton was flat year-over-year, demonstrating our focus on maintaining a low-cost position. We advanced the mine automation products that enhance productivity and safety, increasing our annual Potash ore tonnes cut using autonomous mining technology by 40% in 2023.

短期內，我們的重點將繼續放在整合最近的收購和優化我們在該市場的成本結構。在鉀肥，由於實現價格較低，我們在 2023 年實現調整後 EBITDA 為 24 億美元，低於上一年的記錄。在通路庫存低和秋季應用季強勁的支撐下，北美銷售在下半年大幅成長。我們利用我們的網路靈活性來增加粒狀鉀肥的產量，並在我們的分銷管道中定位產品，以應對北美季節性需求和價格的上漲。在巴西和中國需求強勁的推動下，我們的離岸鉀肥銷量在 2023 年下半年也有所增加，而淨實現價格受到全球基準較低以及 Canpotex 出口碼頭停運導致的物流成本上升的影響。我們的鉀鹽可控現金成本為每噸 58 美元，與去年同期持平，這表明我們致力於維持低成本地位。我們先進的礦山自動化產品可提高生產力和安全性，到 2023 年，利用自主採礦技術將鉀礦年產量增加 40%。

Turning to nitrogen. We generated $1.9 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2023 as lower benchmark prices more than offset lower natural gas costs compared to the prior year. We completed the major maintenance turnarounds at our Geismar and Borger plants in the second half and initiated actions at our Trinidad facility that are expected to support higher operating rates going forward. We completed our Phase I GHB abatement program in 2023, which will be a key contributor to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This included a carbon capture project at Redwater that increased our low-carbon ammonia production capability to 1.2 million tonnes. In phosphate, we delivered full year adjusted EBITDA of $470 million and focused on operational efficiency and product mix opportunities that enhance margins and cash flow. We completed maintenance turnarounds at our Aurora and White Springs plants that enabled higher operating rates in the second half and are expected to support increased volumes in 2024.

轉向氮氣。 2023 年，我們實現了 19 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，因為較低的基準價格足以抵消與前一年相比較低的天然氣成本。下半年，我們完成了蓋斯馬爾和博格工廠的主要維護週轉，並在特立尼達工廠啟動了行動，預計將支持未來更高的開工率。我們於 2023 年完成了第一階段 GHB 減排計劃，這將為減少溫室氣體排放做出重要貢獻。其中包括 Redwater 的碳捕獲項目，該項目將我們的低碳氨產能提高到 120 萬噸。在磷酸鹽領域，我們全年調整後 EBITDA 為 4.7 億美元，並專注於營運效率和產品組合機會，以提高利潤和現金流。我們完成了奧羅拉 (Aurora) 和懷特斯普林斯 (White Springs) 工廠的維護週轉，下半年實現了更高的開工率，預計將支持 2024 年產量的成長。

To summarize, following a period of unprecedented market volatility, we are encouraged by the increased market stability and recovery in demand that occurred in the second half of 2023. During this time, we focused on initiatives that strengthened our core business, maintain the low-cost position and reliability of our assets and position the company for growth in the years ahead.

總而言之，在經歷了一段前所未有的市場波動之後，我們對 2023 年下半年市場穩定性的增強和需求的復甦感到鼓舞。在此期間，我們重點關注加強核心業務、維持低利率的舉措。我們資產的成本狀況和可靠性，使公司在未來幾年能夠實現成長。

Now turning to the outlook for 2024. Global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low as tightening supplies of wheat and rice have offset increased corn production in the U.S. and Brazil. Crop prices have declined from the historically elevated levels in 2022, but lower input prices have resulted in improved demand. In North America, we witnessed the strength of fertilizer demand during the fall season, and it is carried through to healthy grower prepay commitments and a strong seed order book for spring planting in 2024. In Brazil, there is some uncertainty over Safrinha corn plantings in 2024. However, soybean acreage is projected to expand and we anticipate seasonal strength in fertilizer imports during the second and third quarters. For Potash, we expect the global demand will continue to recover towards trend levels in 2024 with shipments projected between 68 million to 71 million tonnes. In North America, we are seeing strong Potash demand ahead of the spring application season as channel inventories were tight to start the year. We expect increased Potash demand in Southeast Asia, driven by lower inventory levels and favorable economics for palm oil and rice. China's Potash consumption was estimated at a record of approximately 17 million tonnes in 2023, supported by strong affordability and as a part of a long-term strategy to increase domestic food production. In 2024, we expect lower Potash imports in China compared to the record in 2023, but for consumption to remain historically strong.

現在展望 2024 年。全球糧食庫存與使用比率仍處於歷史低點，因為小麥和大米供應緊縮抵消了美國和巴西玉米產量的增加。 2022 年，農作物價格已從歷史高點回落，但投入價格下降導致需求改善。在北美，我們見證了秋季化肥需求的強勁，並透過健康的種植者預付款承諾和 2024 年春季播種的強勁種子訂單實現。在巴西，Safrinha 玉米種植面積存在一些不確定性。2024 年。然而，大豆種植面積預計將擴大，我們預計第二季化肥進口將出現季節性強勁。對於鉀肥，我們預計 2024 年全球需求將繼續恢復至趨勢水平，出貨量預計在 6,800 萬噸至 7,100 萬噸之間。在北美，由於年初通路庫存緊張，我們看到春季申請季節之前鉀肥需求強勁。我們預計，由於庫存水準較低以及棕櫚油和大米有利的經濟效益，東南亞的鉀肥需求將會增加。作為增加國內糧食產量的長期策略的一部分，中國的鉀肥消費量預計到 2023 年將達到創紀錄的約 1700 萬噸，這得益於強大的承受能力。與 2023 年的創紀錄水準相比，我們預計 2024 年中國的鉀肥進口量將有所下降，但消費仍將維持歷史強勁水準。

Global nitrogen markets continued to be impacted by regional supply constraints, changes in natural gas prices and seasonal buying patterns. These impacts have been evident to the first quarter as ammonia prices have seasonally weakened while global urea values have strengthened in response to increased demand ahead of the spring season. The U.S. nitrogen market is currently tight and net import volumes were down significantly through the first half of the fertilizer year. North American natural gas prices remained very competitive compared to Europe and Asia, and we are well positioned to supply our customers this spring. I will now turn it over to Pedro to provide more detail on our guidance assumptions and capital allocation plans for 2024.

全球氮氣市場持續受到區域供應限制、天然氣價格變化和季節性購買模式的影響。這些影響在第一季就很明顯，因為氨價格季節性走軟，而全球尿素價格因春季前需求增加而走強。美國氮肥市場目前緊張，化肥年度上半年淨進口量大幅下降。與歐洲和亞洲相比，北美天然氣價格仍然非常有競爭力，我們有能力在今年春季向客戶供應天然氣。我現在將其轉交給 Pedro，以提供有關我們 2024 年指導假設和資本配置計劃的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Ken. As disclosed in our earnings release, we have revised our guidance practice in 2024 to focus on providing forward-looking estimates that we believe are of value to our shareholders and are less impacted by changes in fertilizer commodity prices. We continue to provide guidance for retail adjusted EBITDA, fertilizer sales volumes, key financial modeling, variables and pricing sensitivities. We have also provided adjusted EBITDA scenarios for our fertilizer business in our earnings presentation posted on our website. For retail, our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance is $1.65 billion to $1.85 billion. The midpoint of this range represents an increase of approximately $300 million compared to last year, driven by increased gross margins in all major product lines. We expect crop nutrient gross margins will be supported by higher sales volumes and per ton margins in particular compared to the compressed levels in the first half of the prior year.

謝謝，肯。正如我們在財報中所揭露的那樣，我們修改了 2024 年的指導實踐，重點關注提供前瞻性估計，我們認為這些估計對我們的股東有價值，並且受化肥商品價格變化的影響較小。我們繼續為零售調整後 EBITDA、化肥銷售、關鍵財務模型、變數和定價敏感度提供指導。我們也在網站上發布的收益報告中提供了化肥業務的調整後 EBITDA 情境。對於零售業，我們全年調整後 EBITDA 指引為 16.5 億美元至 18.5 億美元。由於所有主要產品線毛利率的成長，該範圍的中點比去年增加了約 3 億美元。我們預計農作物養分的毛利率將受到更高的銷售量和每噸利潤的支撐，特別是與去年上半年壓縮的水平相比。

Further underpinning this growth is the continued expansion of our proprietary nutritional and biostimulant product lines. In Brazil, we expect increased crop input sales volumes in 2024 and an improvement in crop protection margins in the second half of the year. Our annual Potash sales volume guidance of 13 to 13.8 tonnes assumes demand growth in offshore markets and a return to more normal operations at Canpotex ports in 2024. In North America, based on strong participation in our winter field program, we expect higher first quarter sales volumes compared to the prior year and a typical pricing reset compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Mine automation and other efficiency-related initiatives are expected to keep our Potash contributable cash cost of production similar to last year. Nitrogen sales volumes are projected to increase by approximately 500,000 tonnes at the midpoint of our guidance range, supported by higher operating rates at our U.S. and Trinidad plants. We assume Henry Hub natural gas prices will average around 2.5 per MMBtu, and our Alberta nitrogen plants will benefit from the typical discount to Henry Hub. Total planned capital expenditures of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion is down approximately $400 million compared to 2023. This includes approximately $500 million of investing capital on initiatives that drive organic growth in retail and operational improvements in Potash and nitrogen. The focus in retail is to further expand our proprietary products portfolio, drive retail network optimization and enhance our digital capabilities.

我們專有的營養和生物刺激劑產品線的持續擴展進一步支撐了這一增長。在巴西，我們預計 2024 年作物投入銷售量將增加，下半年作物保護利潤率將有所改善。我們的年度鉀鹽銷售量指引為13 至13.8 噸，假設離岸市場需求成長，並且Canpotex 港口將於2024 年恢復正常運作。在北美，基於我們冬季現場計畫的大力參與，我們預計第一季度銷售將會更高與去年相比，產量有所增加，與2023 年第四季相比，價格進行了典型重置。礦山自動化和其他與效率相關的舉措預計將使我們的鉀肥可貢獻現金生產成本與去年相似。在我們的美國和特立尼達工廠開工率提高的支持下，氮氣銷售量預計將在我們指導範圍的中點增加約 50 萬噸。我們假設 Henry Hub 天然氣價格平均約為 2.5 每 MMBtu，而我們的艾伯塔省氮工廠將受益於 Henry Hub 的典型折扣。計畫資本支出總額為 22 億至 23 億美元，比 2023 年減少約 4 億美元。其中包括約 5 億美元的投資資本，用於推動零售有機成長以及鉀肥和氮肥營運改善的舉措。零售業務的重點是進一步擴大我們的專有產品組合，推動零售網路優化並增強我們的數位化能力。

In addition, we will continue to be opportunistic on tuck-in acquisitions in our core markets. The majority of the planned investment capture in our operations is focused on mine automation projects in Potash and low-cost brownfield expansions in nitrogen. We continue to target a stable and growing dividend with the increase approved by our Board of Directors yesterday, Nutrien's dividend per share has increased by 35% since the beginning of 2018. Similar to the past, we will evaluate the potential for additional shareholder distributions as the year progresses. I'll now turn it back to Ken.

此外，我們將繼續在核心市場中伺機進行收購。我們營運中的大部分計畫投資集中在鉀肥的礦山自動化項目和氮肥的低成本棕地擴張。我們繼續以穩定且不斷增長的股息為目標，昨天董事會批准了增加股息，自 2018 年初以來，Nutrien 的每股股息已增加了 35%。與過去類似，我們將評估額外股東分配的潛力：這一年在進步。我現在將其轉回給肯。

Thanks, Pedro. As we look ahead to 2024, we expect increased crop input market stability and demand, providing the opportunity for Nutrien to deliver higher fertilizer sales volumes and growth in retail earnings. We will continue to prioritize strategic initiatives that enhance our ability to serve growers in our core markets, maintain the low-cost position and reliability of our assets and position the company for growth. We are hosting an Investor Day in New York on June 12, where we will provide more details on the strategic priorities across our integrated business to watch for more details on this event over the next few weeks. We would now be happy to take your questions.

謝謝，佩德羅。展望 2024 年，我們預期農作物投入品市場穩定性和需求將會增加，為 Nutrien 帶來更高的化肥銷售和零售收入成長的機會。我們將繼續優先考慮策略性舉措，以增強我們為核心市場種植者提供服務的能力，保持低成本地位和資產可靠性，並使公司實現成長。我們將於 6 月 12 日在紐約舉辦投資者日活動，屆時我們將提供有關我們綜合業務戰略優先事項的更多詳細信息，以便在接下來的幾週內關注該活動的更多細節。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from the line of Steve Hansen from Raymond James.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）。你的第一個問題來自雷蒙詹姆斯的史蒂夫漢森。

I was hoping you could dig into your outlook on the Southeast Asian demand profile for Potash in particular. It's been one of the weaker price points in the market for the past year or so, but you've described some good economics supporting demand. I'm just trying to get a sense whether you've got good visibility into that, whether you've seen order flow or what outlook you have there that gives you that confidence?

希望您能深入探討您對東南亞鉀肥需求狀況的展望。這是過去一年左右市場價格較弱的點之一，但您描述了一些支持需求的良好經濟因素。我只是想了解一下您是否對此有很好的了解，您是否看到了訂單流，或者您對那裡的前景有什麼信心？

Yes, Steve. And indeed, when we say 68 million to 71 million tonnes for 2024, Southeast Asia is certainly a part of that story. And it's owing to a few things. One, inventory levels are low in Southeast Asia entering the year; and two, looking at about a MYR 3,800 per ton price for palm oil, that makes the economics of fame given where crop input prices have gone that looks favorable. So low inventories and improved economics in Southeast Asia makes that 68 million to 71 million tonnes. We think that, as I say, Southeast Asia is going to play a meaningful role in that. I'll hand it over to Mark and maybe Mark can just talk to some specifics around numbers.

是的，史蒂夫。事實上，當我們說 2024 年產量將達到 6,800 萬噸至 7,100 萬噸時，東南亞肯定是其中的一部分。這是由於一些事情。一、東南亞地區入年庫存水位較低；第二，考慮到每噸約 3,800 馬來西亞林吉特的棕櫚油價格，考慮到農作物投入價格的走勢，這使得名譽經濟學看起來很有利。東南亞的低庫存和經濟改善使得這一數字達到 6,800 萬噸至 7,100 萬噸。正如我所說，我們認為東南亞將在這方面發揮有意義的作用。我會把它交給馬克，也許馬克可以談談一些關於數字的細節。

Yes Steve. So just to reiterate a few of the things that Ken mentioned. I think in Southeast Asia actually had 2 years in a row of consumption and shipments that would be less than normal. So we've got inventories that need to be restocked. And I think throughout the process of 2023, we saw high-cost inventories get worked down and are coming into 2024 in a much better position. As Ken mentioned, there are attractive economics in Southeast Asia for palm oil. Rice is a part of that picture as well that's playing a role that we think will lead to a positive rebound in demand there. And if you look at our global picture in terms of where we expect demand growth to come from in 2024, Southeast Asia is actually the biggest single contributor to that. At the midpoint, we've got Southeast Asia up by about 2 million tonnes from a shipment standpoint and are optimistic based on what we've seen moving through the fourth quarter of 2023. And so far in Q1, we understand there's been solid movement and good shipments into Southeast Asia. So overall, as Ken said, we're positive and constructive on what we expect to see from Southeast Asia this year for Potash.

是的，史蒂夫。所以只是重申一下肯提到的一些事情。我認為東南亞實際上已經連續兩年消費和出貨量低於正常水平。因此，我們有需要補充庫存的庫存。我認為在 2023 年的整個過程中，我們看到高成本庫存得到了減少，並且在進入 2024 年時處於更好的狀態。正如肯所提到的，東南亞的棕櫚油經濟具有吸引力。米也是其中的一部分，我們認為它所發揮的作用將導致那裡的需求積極反彈。如果你從我們預期 2024 年需求成長的來源來看我們的全球狀況，東南亞其實是最大的單一貢獻者。從出貨量的角度來看，我們已經讓東南亞增加了約200 萬噸，並且根據我們所看到的2023 年第四季度的情況感到樂觀。到目前為止，第一季度，我們了解到已經出現了穩健的變化以及向東南亞的良好出貨量。因此，總體而言，正如 Ken 所說，我們對 Potash 今年在東南亞的預期持積極和建設性的態度。

Your next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Joel Jackson。

Let's talk about free cash flow and the buyback and capital allocation. Do you see free cash flow being similar in '24 of '23, you re-upped your authorization in the month, although you didn't really do a lot of the buyback under the prior authorization, you had a lot of buybacks in Q1 under the prior authorization. So I'm trying to get a sense of do you think that your buyback on 24 will be similar to 23% in terms of total numbers, even understanding that it was heavy Q1 early 2023 under the prior authorization? And where that plays out authorization, really maxing as much as you can do for buyback versus other things like maybe doing some more opportunistic M&A in the U.S. or Brazil for retail, for example?

我們來談談自由現金流以及回購和資本配置。您是否認為自由現金流與 23 年 24 月相似，您在該月重新提高了授權，儘管您在先前授權下並未真正進行大量回購，但您在第一季度進行了大量回購在事先授權的情況下。因此，我想了解一下，即使了解 2023 年初根據事先授權進行了大量回購，您是否認為您在 24 日的回購總數將達到 23%？在哪裡發揮授權作用，真正最大限度地回購股票，而不是其他事情，例如在美國或巴西進行一些機會主義的零售併購？

Yes, thank you for the question. So with respect to 2024 free cash flow, obviously, as we've talked about, we've made some changes to our capital program, and we brought down some of those investing dollars and getting highly focused on the things that we talk about like proprietary products and retail like network optimization, like our digital investments. And yes, we'll absolutely continue to look at opportunistic tuck-ins in North America and Australia, we have a history of those things, and the economics for those things continue to prove out. So we'll always look at those focusing on mine automation and reliability projects and finishing up some of the debottlenecking and brownfield investments in nitrogen, that's our focus from a capital point of view. As it relates to the year, there's a number of moving parts on we saw the working capital give back in the fourth quarter of last year. We're expecting from a cash conversion point of view to go back to more sort of normalized levels of about 70%. So you put that all together and it says, well, let's see now how the year unfolds. We've just come out a period of unprecedented volatility and markets are stabilizing. We're returning Potash, returning to trend level demand. These are all good signposts. But as it relates to the opportunity for continued distribution through share buybacks, we're always going to look at that. That's why we renewed the NCIB. But it's a matter of watching how the year unfolds now.

是的，謝謝你的提問。因此，就 2024 年自由現金流而言，顯然，正如我們所討論的，我們對資本計劃進行了一些改變，我們減少了其中一些投資資金，並高度關注我們所討論的事情，例如專有產品和零售，例如網路優化，例如我們的數位投資。是的，我們絕對會繼續關注北美和澳洲的機會主義消費，我們有這些事情的歷史，而這些事情的經濟學繼續得到證明。因此，我們將始終關注那些專注於礦山自動化和可靠性項目並完成一些氮肥瓶頸和棕地投資的項目，這是我們從資本的角度重點。就今年而言，有許多變化，我們看到去年第四季的營運資金有所回升。從現金轉換的角度來看，我們預計會回到 70% 左右的標準化水準。所以你把所有這些放在一起，它說，好吧，現在讓我們看看這一年如何展開。我們剛剛度過了前所未有的波動時期，市場正在趨於穩定。我們正在恢復鉀肥，恢復需求趨勢水準。這些都是很好的路標。但由於它涉及透過股票回購繼續分配的機會，我們總是會關注這一點。這就是我們更新 NCIB 的原因。但這是觀察今年如何發展的問題。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

Yes. I was hoping to maybe ask about the nitrogen business and your own outlook for improved production and reliability in 2024. One of your [Mark] American peers has alluded to weather issues impacting production in January because of weather? Did you face any similar issues? And help us think about, given the capital invested in recent years to increase the capacity that hasn't really come through in terms of production and sales volumes, why we should have confidence that this year, you're going to start to see the benefits of those actions, especially where you just took an impairment on the trend.

是的。我本來希望問一下氮肥業務以及您對 2024 年產量和可靠性提高的展望。您的一位 [Mark] 美國同行曾提到，由於天氣原因，天氣問題影響了 1 月份的生產？您有遇過類似的問題嗎？請幫助我們思考，鑑於近年來為提高產能而投入的資本在生產和銷量方面尚未真正實現，為什麼我們應該有信心今年，您將開始看到這些行動的好處，特別是當你剛剛對趨勢造成損害時。

No, that's great. Thank you, Adam. And yes, we have made a number of investments across the network to improve reliability. And certainly, for the absolute majority of our plants, we're really happy with the way they're running. We continue to assume that we're going to be curtailed on gas in Trinidad. That's part of the story for 2024. But for the things that we can control, we do have a number of in-flight projects that give us confidence on improving reliability. And I'll hand it over to Trevor Williams, our Head of Nitrogen Phosphate to talk about that.

不，那太好了。謝謝你，亞當。是的，我們在網路上進行了大量投資以提高可靠性。當然，對於我們絕大多數工廠來說，我們對它們的運作方式非常滿意。我們仍然認為特立尼達的天然氣供應將會受到限制。這是 2024 年故事的一部分。但對於我們可以控制的事情，我們確實有許多正在進行的項目，這些項目讓我們對提高可靠性充滿信心。我將把它交給我們的氮磷酸鹽主管 Trevor Williams 來討論這個問題。

All right. Thanks, Ken, and thanks for the question, Adam. And I'll take you back to our Q3 earnings call, and we communicated that we've taken several proactive steps to address some of the reliability challenges that we had a couple of our facilities. Just to bring you back, these actions included pulling forward a couple of major turnarounds at our facilities as well as returning to operation in one of our previously idled facilities or sites in Trinidad, which really allows for a greater overall operational flexibility as well as having the ability to more effectively manage through the impact of some of the gas curtailments and things that we've seen in Trinidad. And finally, with respect in the Trinidad area is also provide a little bit more flexibility in terms of being able to provide some increased capacity utilization as we execute turnarounds on the island.

好的。謝謝肯，謝謝亞當的提問。我將帶您回到我們的第三季財報電話會議，我們表示我們已採取一些積極主動的措施來解決我們的一些設施所面臨的一些可靠性挑戰。為了讓您回來，這些行動包括推動我們設施的幾項重大周轉，以及恢復我們之前閒置的特立尼達設施或地點之一的運營，這確實可以實現更大的整體運營靈活性，並具有能夠更有效地管理一些天然氣削減和我們在特立尼達看到的事情的影響。最後，在特立尼達地區，我們也提供了更多的靈活性，當我們在島上執行週轉時，能夠提高產能利用率。

Now while these outages did take a little bit longer than expected to complete, I'm really happy to be able to share that since returning to the plants to back to operation, they've been running extremely well. Finally, I just wanted to comment or highlight a couple of other things across our North American fleet, obviously, excluding where we did the pull forward turnaround in Borger, the remainder of our assets in North America ran at 100% capacity utilization across the quarter. And it is really the result of the investments that we've put in terms of reliability in those sites as well as completing some debottlenecks. We did some brownfield debottlenecks, specifically at our Geismar facility. That facility is now running at full capacity at those to boltleneck rates. And then finally, the work that the team has done really to focus in on how do we continue to run our assets efficiently and effectively. Now as a result of that, and Ken alluded to it, that really is giving us the confidence as we move into 2024. And as you'll see from our guidance range, we've added almost 500,000 tonnes into our production forecast as we move into 2024.

現在，雖然這些停電確實需要比預期更長的時間才能完成，但我真的很高興能夠與大家分享，自從我返回工廠恢復運營以來，它們一直運行得非常好。最後，我只是想評論或強調我們北美機隊的其他一些事情，顯然，除了我們在博格進行提前週轉的地方外，我們在北美的其餘資產在本季度的產能利用率為 100% 。這實際上是我們在這些站點的可靠性方面進行投資以及解決一些瓶頸問題的結果。我們解決了一些棕地瓶頸問題，特別是在我們的 Geismar 工廠。該設施目前正以極快的速度滿載運作。最後，團隊所做的工作真正關注的是我們如何繼續有效率且有效地經營我們的資產。現在，肯提到這一點，這確實給了我們進入 2024 年的信心。正如您從我們的指導範圍中看到的那樣，我們在產量預測中增加了近 50 萬噸，因為我們進入2024年。

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的本‧艾薩克森 (Ben Isaacson)。

When we look at the retail, how should we think about crop protection. Is that a threat or an opportunity? Can you run through how the challenges have evolved? Is it region-specific as you mentioned in South America? Is it structural or cyclical that can be cured with inventory destocking? Should we think about it being more volatile going forward? Just trying to understand how you see the CP business.

當我們審視零售業時，我們應該如何思考作物保護。這是威脅還是機會？您能概括一下挑戰是如何演變的嗎？是不是像你提到的南美地區？結構性還是週期性是否可以透過去庫存來解決？我們是否應該考慮它未來會變得更加不穩定？只是想了解您如何看待CP業務。

Yes, thank you for the question. So we certainly see crop protection as an opportunity. And I would say the challenges at the moment are really quite regional as it relates to Brazil. But I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi to provide some color.

是的，謝謝你的提問。因此，我們當然將作物保護視為一個機會。我想說，目前的挑戰確實是區域性的，因為它與巴西有關。但我會把它交給 Jeff Tarsi 來提供一些顏色。

Yes, Ben, thanks for the question. And when I look at the Crop Protection business. If I look and Ken mentioned in his commentary, we saw a lot of pressure in the fourth quarter as retailers in Brazil continue to liquidate their inventory there. We feel like we're in a really good position on our inventory going into '24. And I think we've talked about it quite a bit that we expect to see significant improvement in the back half of the year in the crop protection market in Brazil. If I look at North America, I'm actually quite pleased with where we ended the year from a crop protection margin standpoint. We were just under 25%, and that's historically in line with where we are generally on proper protection margins and the same for Australia. So you asked the question, how do we see it going into '24? I see it as an opportunity, particularly from a Brazilian standpoint that we should see a lot of recovery there from a margin standpoint. And in North America, look, we're in really good position from an inventory standpoint. If I look at it year-over-year, our inventories were down about $400 million on the crop protection segment. So this gives us a really nice leverage with our suppliers. We were very opportunistic in the fourth quarter on our purchases on product protection, which sets us up really well going into '24.

是的，本，謝謝你的提問。當我觀察作物保護業務時。如果我看的話，肯在他的評論中提到，我們在第四季度看到了很大的壓力，因為巴西的零售商繼續清理那裡的庫存。我們覺得進入 24 年我們的庫存處於非常有利的位置。我想我們已經討論過很多次了，我們預計巴西作物保護市場將在今年下半年出現顯著改善。如果我看看北美，從作物保護利潤的角度來看，我實際上對我們今年結束的情況感到非常滿意。我們的比例略低於 25%，這與我們通常處於適當保護邊際的歷史水準一致，澳洲也是如此。所以你問了一個問題，我們要如何看待 24 世紀的發展？我認為這是一個機會，特別是從巴西的角度來看，從利潤的角度來看，我們應該看到巴西的大幅復甦。在北美，從庫存的角度來看，我們處於非常有利的位置。如果我逐年查看的話，我們作物保護領域的庫存減少了約 4 億美元。因此，這為我們與供應商提供了非常好的影響力。我們在第四季度在產品保護採購方面非常投機，這為我們進入 24 世紀奠定了良好的基礎。

Your next question comes from the line of Jacob Bout from CIBC.

您的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Jacob Bout。

In the past, you talked about mid-cycle EBITDA $7 billion to $7.5 billion. I think you're referring to you'd be able to achieve that by 2027. A couple of questions there. Maybe just talk through what pricing looks like today versus what your mid-cycle expectations are? And do you think that this is still attainable by 2027? Just talk through what your expectation on Potash volumes would have to be for that to happen.

過去，您談到了中期 EBITDA 70 億至 75 億美元。我認為您指的是到 2027 年就能實現這一目標。有幾個問題。也許只是談談今天的定價與您的中期預期是什麼？您認為到 2027 年這仍然可以實現嗎？只需談談您對鉀肥產量的預期才能實現這一目標。

Yes. Thank you, Jacob, for the question. So yes, we do think it's achievable. It's really going to a few things. We talk about returning or advancing this year toward more normalized or normal margins within retail this year. We have our guidance range, but we would call that in the mid-cycle more more close to $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion coming out of our retail business. And that's also leading to the organic growth that we cite a proprietary our network optimization work digital, and it gives us confidence in that range. We also talk about the investments that we've made in products so that we have the ability to add 1 million or 2 million tonnes compared to 2023 levels that gives us the confidence in this growing market to deploy those tonnes. And then we also talk about the things that Trevor Williams just cited and ongoing investments in debottlenecking and brownfields that allow us to add 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes of nitrogen. So from a volume perspective, yes. So I'll hand it over to Mark to talk about pricing, but what we would see in the mid-cycle is certainly pricing a bit above where we see prices today. But Mark, over to you.

是的。謝謝雅各的提問。所以是的，我們確實認為這是可以實現的。這確實涉及到一些事情。我們討論今年零售業的回歸或前進，以實現更正常化或正常的利潤率。我們有自己的指導範圍，但我們認為在周期中期，我們的零售業務將更接近 19 億至 21 億美元。這也導致了有機成長，我們引用了專有的數位網路優化工作，這讓我們對此範圍充滿信心。我們也談論了我們在產品方面所做的投資，以便我們有能力在 2023 年的水平上增加 100 萬噸或 200 萬噸，這讓我們對這個不斷增長的市場部署這些噸充滿信心。然後我們還討論了 Trevor Williams 剛才提到的事情以及對消除瓶頸和棕地的持續投資，這些投資使我們能夠增加 100 萬至 150 萬噸氮。所以從數量的角度來看，是的。因此，我將把它交給馬克來討論定價，但我們在中期看到的定價肯定會略高於我們今天看到的價格。但是馬克，交給你了。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So yes, I think Ken covered the retail portion of that and the path to mid-cycle EBITDA and retailers are all not in the volumes really well. So just on price in that scenario on an approximate basis to feed that $7 billion to $7.5 billion of EBITDA, we would call Potash in that scenario about $400 per tonne, both globally and within North America. Within North America, we're quite close to that number today. But internationally, obviously, we're well below that. And so we do have a gap there. But with the fundamentals improving that Ken talked about and the time horizon in front of us is demand improves, we certainly see a path there. From a urea standpoint, our assumption is also about $400 a short ton. And so again, we're not that far away from that today. And as we look at in-season pricing and the strength that we expect in urea this year, we do see positive fundamentals. And from an ammonia standpoint, looking at the Tampa benchmark, it's about $500 a tonne. And again, this year, we expect to see a constructive outlook for ammonia some in-year volatility. But all of those prices, we continue to believe are quite reasonable. And when you go back to our assumptions for why that's the case, it's the factors that we've seen change fundamentally in the last few years in terms of inflationary impacts, changes in trade flows, changes in energy prices, all of those things feeding into a structurally higher fertilizer price deck over time.

是的。謝謝，肯。所以，是的，我認為 Ken 涵蓋了其中的零售部分，通往中期 EBITDA 的道路和零售商都沒有很好地體現在數量上。因此，就這種情況下的價格而言，在大約 70 億至 75 億美元的 EBITDA 的基礎上，我們認為在這種情況下，鉀肥的價格約為每噸 400 美元，無論是全球還是北美。在北美，我們今天已經非常接近這個數字了。但在國際上，顯然我們遠低於這個水準。所以我們確實存在差距。但隨著肯談到的基本面改善以及我們面前的需求改善的時間範圍，我們當然看到了一條道路。從尿素的角度來看，我們的假設也是每短噸約 400 美元。再說一次，我們今天離那個目標並不遙遠。當我們審視當季定價以及我們預計今年尿素的強勢時，我們確實看到了積極的基本面。從氨的角度來看，以坦帕基準來看，價格約為每噸 500 美元。今年，我們再次預期氨的前景會出現一些年內的波動。但我們仍然認為所有這些價格都是相當合理的。當你回到我們的假設來解釋為什麼會出現這種情況時，你會發現過去幾年我們看到的因素在通貨膨脹影響、貿易流量變化、能源價格變化等方面發生了根本性變化，所有這些因素都在推動這一變化。隨著時間的推移，化肥價格將形成結構性上漲。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的安德魯黃 (Andrew Wong)。

So just first on Potash markets. They seem to have had what seems like a bit of a slow start, but affordability looks good and both your patents and Mosaic calls for higher year-over-year demand growth. So I guess my question is what catalysts are we looking for to get the market moving a little bit more here? And what's your outlook on prices? And then just secondly, on Potash production, like Mosaic, they announce curtailment at Colonsay would that be something that Nutrien considers as well, just given your outlook versus your operating capacity?

所以首先是鉀肥市場。他們的起步似乎有點慢，但負擔能力看起來不錯，而且你們的專利和 Mosaic 都需要更高的年比需求成長。所以我想我的問題是我們正在尋找什麼催化劑來讓市場進一步發展？您對價格有何看法？其次，在鉀肥生產方面，例如 Mosaic，他們宣佈在 Colonsay 進行減產，考慮到您的前景與營運能力，Nutrien 是否也會考慮這一點？

Good. Thanks, Andrew. And I'll hand it over to Mark here to maybe go market by market. And what we're seeing on the ground certainly as we head into the planting season in the Northern Hemisphere and the balance of the world. But in the U.S., we've talked about the very strong qual application season and strong prepays heading into the spring planting season. Actually, Jeff and I are talking about strong seed sales as well. And so things are pointing to a strong year in North America, once again, Brazil, while it's been some weather challenges there, we think we're probably experiencing some seasonal softness in pricing and Q2, Q3, we expect that there could be some firming in that part of the world. For Australia, the farmer is in good shape at the moment. We would say that yields and price over the last few years have been strong, albeit now some risks associated with El Nino. So for the markets where our retail business, as we see pretty strong on-the-ground fundamentals and we are anticipating normal application rates maybe for the rest of our distribution and market-to-market I'll hand it over to Mark.

好的。謝謝，安德魯。我會將其交給馬克，以便逐個市場處理。當我們進入北半球和世界其他地區的種植季節時，我們在實地所看到的肯定是這樣的。但在美國，我們已經討論了進入春季種植季節的非常強勁的優質申請季節和強勁的預付款。事實上，傑夫和我也在談論強勁的種子銷售。因此，事情表明北美和巴西將迎來強勁的一年，雖然那裡遇到了一些天氣挑戰，但我們認為我們可能會經歷定價方面的季節性疲軟，第二季度、第三季度，我們預計可能會出現一些季節性疲軟。鞏固在世界的那個部分。對澳洲來說，農民目前狀況良好。我們可以說，過去幾年的產量和價格一直很強勁，儘管現在存在一些與厄爾尼諾現象相關的風險。因此，對於我們零售業務所在的市場，由於我們看到相當強勁的實地基本面，並且我們預計我們的其餘分銷和市場對市場的應用率可能會正常，我會將其交給馬克。

Sure. Thanks, Ken. So yes, I think as Ken said, we're entering 2024 with Potash showing greater price stability, attractive pricing levels for growers and really the need to rebuild inventories and soil potassium levels after the last 2 years in a number of key markets. And I think an important factor here is that in 2023, we would estimate that consumption in aggregate for Potash across the world was actually higher than shipments so that resulted in an aggregate drawdown in inventories in our view. So these factors are supportive of our expectation for shipment growth to that range of 68 million to 71 million tonnes in 2024 that we've talked about. So when we actually look across most global markets today, we do see a general trend of Potash inventories being in a balanced to tight position. The exceptions to that would be Brazil and China, which both are estimated to have built some inventory on a year-over-year basis, but that was on the back of extremely strong consumption and record imports in both of those markets in 2023.

當然。謝謝，肯。所以，是的，我認為正如肯所說，我們即將進入2024 年，鉀肥顯示出更大的價格穩定性，對種植者俱有吸引力的價格水平，並且在過去兩年後，許多主要市場確實需要重建庫存和土壤鉀水準。我認為這裡的一個重要因素是，到 2023 年，我們估計全球鉀肥的總消費量實際上高於出貨量，因此我們認為，這導致庫存總量下降。因此，這些因素支持我們對 2024 年出貨量成長至 6,800 萬噸至 7,100 萬噸的預期。因此，當我們今天實際審視大多數全球市場時，我們確實看到鉀肥庫存的整體趨勢是處於平衡到緊張的狀態。巴西和中國是個例外，據估計，這兩個國家都比去年同期增加了一些庫存，但這是在 2023 年這兩個市場消費極其強勁且進口創紀錄的背景下實現的。

So those are the dynamics that are shaping our view of 2024 demand, and we see the strongest growth potential in 2024 and those markets where inventories are historically tight or where below needs applications have left soils more depleted those markets, maybe just to dive into it in a little more detail that we would expect to grow, which we've provided in our outlook presentation would be Southeast Asia, Europe, India and Latin America outside of Brazil. And really, as we've talked about earlier in the call today, Southeast Asia is the largest of those, and Europe is a meaningful contributor to that as well. So I think just to reiterate, touch on a few key markets. Southeast Asia, we see about 2 million tonnes of demand growth at the midpoint. That actually wouldn't get us back to historical trend levels. And after the last 2 years of under applications, we see that being reasonable. And again, for the reasons we talked about supportive in-country economics on palm oil in Southeast Asian countries in rice, the impact of El Nino being less severe than originally feared and depleted inventories in that market. So we think there's a good setup there. Europe, I mentioned is another market where we see growth. At our midpoint, we would have about 1 million tonnes of growth in Potash shipments into Europe in 2024, which again, would represent a strong year-over-year improvement, but not a full recovery back to trend levels. And for many of the reasons that we just talked about in Southeast Asia, application rates there have been low for the past 2 years due to the volatility in prices and actually challenges for supply into the region. So it does appear that we're poised for a rebound in Europe, and supportive weather looks like it could set up to an earlier start to spring application in that market. Maybe just to turn to Brazil and China.

因此，這些動態正在塑造我們對 2024 年需求的看法，我們看到 2024 年成長潛力最強，以及那些庫存歷來緊張或低於需求的應用導致土壤更加枯竭的市場，也許只是為了深入其中更詳細地說，我們預計成長的地區是東南亞、歐洲、印度和拉丁美洲（巴西除外）。事實上，正如我們今天早些時候在電話會議中談到的那樣，東南亞是其中最大的地區，歐洲也是其中的重要貢獻者。所以我想重申一下，談談幾個關鍵市場。東南亞，我們預計中間需求將成長約 200 萬噸。這實際上不會讓我們回到歷史趨勢水平。經過過去兩年的申請不足，我們認為這是合理的。再次，由於我們談到了東南亞國家對大米中棕櫚油的支持性國內經濟，厄爾尼諾現象的影響沒有最初擔心的那麼嚴重，並且導致了該市場的庫存耗盡。所以我們認為那裡有一個很好的設置。我提到歐洲是我們看到成長的另一個市場。按照我們的中期預測，到 2024 年，歐洲的鉀肥出貨量將成長約 100 萬噸，這再次顯示同比強勁改善，但不會完全恢復到趨勢水準。由於我們剛才在東南亞談到的許多原因，由於價格波動以及該地區供應的實際挑戰，過去兩年那裡的施用率一直很低。因此，我們確實已經做好了歐洲反彈的準備，而且有利的天氣看起來可能會導致該市場的春季申請提前開始。也許只是轉向巴西和中國。

And these are the 2 markets that really surprised to the upside in the second half of 2023, we saw record imports into both of those markets last year, and it's important to note that in both cases, consumption was estimated to be extremely strong, which was the primary driver behind the large growth in shipments in those markets in 2023. If we look at Brazil, we estimate that inventories entered the year about 700,000 tonnes higher than they entered 2023, as Ken touched on, some poor growing conditions and adverse weather impacted demand and sentiment to start the year. But in recent weeks, we understand that inquiries and buying interest in the country have increased and the expectation is that buyers will be positioning as we move into Q2 and prepare for the next major planting activity in Q3. And that market is supported by attractive prices for distributors and growers. We would expect shipments to be roughly similar to 2023 in 2024, but we do expect that consumption is going to increase, assuming supportive weather. In China, imports are anticipated to have reached a record in 2023. We saw extremely strong demand emerge in the second half of 2023. And I think, again, important is that we would estimate the majority of that increase on a year-over-year basis went to the ground. Domestic consumption was estimated to be at record levels. And we do believe that Chinese inventories were up by about 750,000 tonnes to start the year. But to put that in context, we would look at imports being up by 3.7 million tonnes.

這兩個市場在 2023 年下半年的上漲確實令人驚訝，去年我們看到這兩個市場的進口量創歷史新高，值得注意的是，在這兩個市場中，消費估計都非常強勁，這是2023 年這些市場出貨量大幅增長的主要驅動力。如果我們看看巴西，我們估計今年的庫存比2023 年的庫存高出約70 萬噸，正如Ken 提到的，一些生長條件不佳和天氣惡劣影響了年初的需求和情緒。但最近幾週，我們了解到該國的詢問和購買興趣有所增加，預計買家將在進入第二季時進行定位，並為第三季的下一次主要種植活動做好準備。對於經銷商和種植者來說，這個市場得到了有吸引力的價格的支持。我們預計 2024 年的出貨量將與 2023 年大致相似，但我們確實預計，假設天氣有利，消費將會增加。在中國，預計 2023 年進口量將達到創紀錄水平。我們看到 2023 年下半年出現了極其強勁的需求。我認為，重要的是，我們將估計其中大部分增長是同比增長。年基礎落地。國內消費估計將達到創紀錄水準。我們確實相信，今年年初中國庫存增加了約 75 萬噸。但考慮到這一點，我們認為進口量增加了 370 萬噸。

So again, consumption was very strong, and we believe there continues to be a strong policy incentive and economic incentive supporting Potash demand in China. Given the comfortable inventory levels that we see in that market and the trade flow shifts we've observed over the past 12 to 18 months, we would expect limited engagement in the near term on a new contract. And the midpoint of our shipment and volume guidance doesn't assume an imminent settlement in China. So overall, we would say that Chinese shipments, we expect at our midpoint would decline by about 2 million tonnes in 2024, but we do expect consumption to be strong in that region. And then lastly, just around things out in North America. North America, like some of the other markets we've talked about entered 2024 with historically low inventories, following very strong demand in both the spring and the fall of 2023 where that product went primarily to the ground. And this set us up for what was a very positive response to our [PIL] program in the first quarter of 2024 here. And we've been very, very pleased with what we saw. And as a result, we would expect, as Ken mentioned in his opening remarks, to see stronger domestic shipments in Q1 of 2024 versus Q1 of 2023. So with the values of Potash relative to nitrogen and phosphate at attractive levels, combined with solid expectations for U.S. acreage, we see North America as a constructive backdrop and shipments relatively similar to 2023 and 2024. So we step back from each of these markets. And overall, we see a setup for demand to grow again in 2024 and a backdrop of more normalized and balanced supply, which should incentivize further recovery and growth in global consumption.

因此，消費非常強勁，我們相信強勁的政策誘因和經濟誘因將繼續支持中國的鉀肥需求。鑑於我們在該市場看到的舒適庫存水準以及我們在過去 12 至 18 個月中觀察到的貿易流變化，我們預計近期新合約的參與度有限。我們的出貨量和數量指引的中位數並不假設中國即將達成和解。因此，總體而言，我們預計 2024 年中國的出貨量將下降約 200 萬噸，但我們確實預期該地區的消費將強勁。最後，關於北美的事。與我們討論過的其他一些市場一樣，北美在進入 2024 年時庫存處於歷史低位，而 2023 年春季和秋季的需求非常強勁，產品主要銷往地面。這為我們在 2024 年第一季的 [PIL] 計劃帶來了非常積極的回應。我們對所看到的非常非常滿意。因此，正如Ken 在開場白中提到的那樣，我們預計2024 年第一季的國內出貨量將比2023 年第一季更強。因此，鉀肥相對於氮肥和磷酸鹽的價值處於有吸引力的水平，再加上堅實的預期對於美國的種植面積，我們認為北美是一個建設性的背景，並且出貨量與 2023 年和 2024 年相對相似。因此，我們對這些市場都進行了退出。總體而言，我們認為 2024 年需求將再次成長，供應更加正常化和平衡，這應該會刺激全球消費的進一步復甦和成長。

Great. And with respect to your second question, then Andrew, on curtailments, we have sized our network for 2024 to meet our guidance range. In other words, our expectation of the needs of our customers. And we'll always meet the needs of our customers. So we'll always look at where we plan to land within that range depending on how the year unfolds and everything that Mark just described. And we have obviously well-established channels all over the world. We're in touch with those customers every day. And so yes, we will set up our network 6 mines in a flexible way to meet the needs of our customers. And that's based on reliance on the needs of the grade splits as well, whether it's standard grade markets, as Mark just described and what's going on in China or whether it's granular markets in places like Brazil and North America. So we've got the flexibility to shift back and forth between those 2 as our customers call for volume. But again, we'll always seek to meet the needs of our customers.

偉大的。關於你的第二個問題，安德魯，關於削減，我們已經調整了 2024 年的網路規模，以滿足我們的指導範圍。換句話說，我們對客戶需求的期望。我們將始終滿足客戶的需求。因此，我們將始終根據今年的進展以及馬克剛剛描述的一切來考慮我們計劃在該範圍內的著陸位置。我們顯然在世界各地都有完善的管道。我們每天都與這些客戶保持聯繫。所以，是的，我們將以靈活的方式建立我們的 6 個礦場網絡，以滿足客戶的需求。這也是基於對等級劃分需求的依賴，無論是馬克剛剛描述的標準等級市場以及中國的情況，還是巴西和北美等地的細粒度市場。因此，當我們的客戶需要數量時，我們可以靈活地在這兩者之間來回切換。但同樣，我們將始終致力於滿足客戶的需求。

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Wondering if we can just speak a little bit more on the Potash supply as well as the Potash price outlook. Obviously, all your points are well taken on the demand and shipment side of the equation, but we continue to see Potash prices drifting lower in most markets. So what do you think causes the price to start flattening out? And is there an opportunity for prices to actually increase in 2024? Or should we be anticipating this just to be a year of strong volumes, but prices continuing to leak lower?

想知道我們是否可以多談談鉀肥供應以及鉀肥價格前景。顯然，您的所有觀點都在需求和運輸方面得到了很好的體現，但我們仍然看到大多數市場的鉀肥價格走低。那麼您認為是什麼原因導致價格開始趨於平緩呢？ 2024 年價格是否有機會真正上漲？或者我們應該預期今年只是成交量強勁的一年，但價格卻繼續走低？

Yes. Thanks, Vincent. And yes, we do see potential for affirming of Potash prices. And a lot of it has to do with -- we estimate that the marginal cost of production for Potash is up about $50. And there's inflationary pressures for Potash producers, but there's also just increased challenges with logistics. And of course, you know what they are, whether it's rail and through Russia and the North of China, where now with some of the challenges shipping through the Red Sea, that's all adding cost. And so again, we look at the cost curve, and we said that last ton to produce that last ton could be up by about $50. We're also in some markets experiencing just some seasonal weakness. So you combine the seasonal weakness with the notion that it's just more expensive these days to move Potash around to produce around it. Yes, we do think that there's potential opportunity for some strengthening here in 2024. Obviously, demand returning this year to trend levels are on trend levels, 68 million to 71 million tonnes. And as we look at how that's going to get supplied, it's really owing to 3 parts of the world, its FSU production, those volumes are for the most part back in the market, and we expect some incremental volumes from FSU coming back in 2024. We expect some additional [comp] tonnes coming out of Laos, we've assumed it's going to be in the market in 2024 as well. And then there's Canadian production, our own production, which we think is going to make up some of the difference as well. So it's really those 3 producing regions are going to play the role in increasing demand here in 2024. Overall, for all those reasons, we call it a relatively balanced and stable market.

是的。謝謝，文森特。是的，我們確實看到了確認鉀肥價格的潛力。這在很大程度上與我們估計鉀肥的邊際生產成本上升了約 50 美元有關。鉀肥生產商面臨通膨壓力，但物流的挑戰也日益增加。當然，你知道它們是什麼，無論是鐵路還是通過俄羅斯和中國北部，現在紅海運輸面臨一些挑戰，這都增加了成本。因此，我們再次查看成本曲線，我們說生產最後一噸的最後一噸可能會增加約 50 美元。我們在一些市場也經歷了一些季節性疲軟。因此，你將季節性疲軟與現在將鉀肥轉移到周圍生產的成本更高的想法結合起來。是的，我們確實認為 2024 年有潛在的成長機會。顯然，今年需求恢復到趨勢水準是趨勢水平，即 6,800 萬噸至 7,100 萬噸。當我們考慮如何供應時，這實際上是由於世界三個地區的 FSU 生產，這些產量大部分都回到了市場，我們預計 FSU 的一些增量產量將在 2024 年回歸。我們預計老撾將有額外的[comp] 噸產量，我們假設它也將在2024 年進入市場。然後是加拿大的生產，我們自己的生產，我們認為這也將彌補一些差異。因此，到 2024 年，這三個產區確實將在增加需求方面發揮作用。總的來說，出於所有這些原因，我們稱其為一個相對平衡和穩定的市場。

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Garchitorena from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的理查德·加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

My question is on the CapEx reduction. So this year, you're going to be spending roughly $400 million to $500 million less than 2023. It looks like the bulk of that is going to be cut from the investment for growth CapEx. So just wondering what has changed this year versus last year? Is it a function of your budget scheduling for the expansion plans for the mid-cycle scenarios? Or are you tweaking the budget down just to conserve cash? And also just going forward, is $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion a good level to think about going forward in a normalized environment?

我的問題是關於資本支出的減少。因此，今年，您將比 2023 年減少約 4 億至 5 億美元的支出。看起來其中大部分將從成長資本支出投資中削減。那麼想知道今年與去年相比有什麼改變嗎？它是您針對中期場景擴展計劃的預算安排的函數嗎？還是您只是為了節省現金而調整預算？展望未來，22 億至 23 億美元是在正常化環境下考慮前進的良好水平嗎？

Great. Thanks, Richard. So a lot of it has to do with just ongoing and increasing focus on our high conviction opportunities. We've made investments in our wholesale business that provide us with flexibility and capacity now to meet the needs of customers and to continue to grow. And we feel good about that. And we continue to target those [side] conviction opportunities in retail, proprietary network optimization, digital and of course, again, always looking at tuck-in opportunities. I'll maybe hand it over to Pedro just to provide some more color on how we think about CapEx levels going forward.

偉大的。謝謝，理查。因此，這在很大程度上與我們持續不斷地、越來越多地關注我們的高信念機會有關。我們對批發業務進行了投資，這為我們提供了靈活性和能力，可以滿足客戶的需求並繼續成長。我們對此感覺很好。我們繼續瞄準零售、專有網路優化、數位領域的那些[側面]確信機會，當然，總是在尋找機會。我可能會把它交給佩德羅，只是為了提供更多關於我們如何看待未來資本支出水準的資訊。

Yes. I think what we are looking, of course, we kind of mentioned before, there were a few investments in sustaining capital that were related to end of life, and we are continuing those for a couple of years, but we think those are already kind of baked in into this year. And we continue with the strategies that Ken just mentioned in terms of primarily in retail. One of the uses of our CapEx in the past as well has been the expansion of network in Brazil. We decided to put that on pause as we integrate the past acquisitions that we have made as well as the further maturing of all the acquisitions we have made in the U.S. here. So we think that this level of CapEx not only provides us the opportunity to sustain all of our assets and deal with some of the end-of-life situations we mentioned before, but also gives us the opportunity to invest in the critical areas, particularly in the proprietary products in the future.

是的。當然，我認為我們正在尋找的是，我們之前提到過，有一些與生命週期結束相關的維持資本投資，我們將繼續這些投資幾年，但我們認為這些已經很好了今年的烘焙。我們繼續執行肯剛才提到的主要在零售方面的策略。過去我們資本支出的用途之一就是擴展巴西的網路。我們決定暫停這項計劃，因為我們將整合過去進行的收購，以及我們在美國進行的所有收購的進一步成熟。因此，我們認為這種水平的資本支出不僅為我們提供了維持所有資產並處理我們之前提到的一些報廢情況的機會，而且還為我們提供了在關鍵領域進行投資的機會，特別是未來的專有產品。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

Yes. Thanks. I'd like to get back to Jeff Tarsi's comment about gross margins in crop chems on nearly 25%. Your revenues of crop chems are almost $7 billion. I mean that's nearly a Corteva of a business. And I'm just curious with respect to those margins, what fraction of your crop chemical sales are your proprietary brand. And within that, is there a portion of it that you're starting to get your own registrations where you can import the active ingredients and really have a nice margin on it. Just curious on your outlook for that gross margin in the coming years.

是的。謝謝。我想回到 Jeff Tarsi 關於作物化學品毛利率接近 25% 的評論。你們的農作物化學品收入接近 70 億美元。我的意思是，這幾乎是一家科迪華公司。我只是對這些利潤感到好奇，你們的農作物化學品銷售中有多少是你們的專有品牌。其中，有一部分是您開始獲得自己的註冊，您可以進口活性成分並確實獲得不錯的利潤。只是好奇您對未來幾年毛利率的展望。

Yes. No, thank you, Steve. I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi, but yes. We are pretty pleased with the role that proprietary plays in those margins, and that's been growing for us but overall, for 2024, as we think about that 25% and the split then between proprietary and our branded products, yes, Jeff Tarsi can certainly provide more color on that.

是的。不，謝謝你，史蒂夫。我會把它交給傑夫·塔西，但是是的。我們對專有產品在這些利潤中所扮演的角色感到非常滿意，而且這一比例對我們來說一直在增長，但總體而言，到2024 年，當我們考慮到25% 以及專有產品和我們的品牌產品之間的差距時，是的，傑夫·塔西(Jeff Tarsi) 當然可以提供更多的色彩。

Yes, Steve, as you know, our proprietary business has always been a very strong part of our retail business environment. And from a crop protection standpoint, we run somewhere between 30% to 35% from a proprietary line of products versus our branded product line. And we haven't seen that. I mean, we kept that pretty much in line. If you look back in '23 and of course, a lot of those products, as you would note, a lot of those products in our proprietary level of products line would be products that are all patented or post patent. And so if you look in '23, we would have seen a lot of pressure actually on that side of the business, especially around products like glyphosate, glufosinate, [paraquat] and [clevedon]. We expect to see a really nice recovery in that area coming back in '24. And you're right, we do have a very large crop protection. But we still think that we have room for growth in that crop protection line, you've heard Ken and you've heard Pedro mention the importance of our proprietary product business for us.

是的，史蒂夫，如您所知，我們的自營業務一直是我們零售業務環境的重要組成部分。從作物保護的角度來看，我們的專有產品線與品牌產品線的比例在 30% 到 35% 之間。我們還沒有看到這一點。我的意思是，我們幾乎保持一致。如果你回顧 23 年，當然，正如你所注意到的，很多這樣的產品，我們專有級別的產品線中的許多產品都是已獲得專利或專利後的產品。因此，如果你看看 23 年，我們會發現這方面的業務實際上面臨很大的壓力，特別是在草甘膦、草銨膦、[百草枯]和[克利夫登]等產品方面。我們預計 24 年該地區會出現非常好的復甦。你是對的，我們確實有非常大的農作物保護措施。但我們仍然認為我們在作物保護系列方面還有成長空間，您已經聽到肯和佩德羅提到了我們專有產品業務對我們的重要性。

And as a matter of fact, in our 24 budgets, we've got about 17% increase in gross margin projected for '24. And some of that have come into crop protection side of the business, probably more importantly is what we plan to do in our prop Nutrition and our biostimulant sector of that business as well, where as Ken said, we've had double-digit growth. I think crop nutrition were up 10% last year, and our biostimulant business was up over 20% last year. So yes, crop protections is very important for us. It's also very important from a standpoint that it's secure for our adjuvants and surfaces, which are high-margin products for us. And we saw just under a 10% increase in that segment of our business last year as well. From a registration standpoint, we've got some registrations in our portfolio. I don't know that we've got a strategy right now greatly increasing those registrations going forward. As you know, we work very closely with the multinationals. And from a life cycle standpoint as some of those products start to come out at and how then we've got an opportunity to bring those products into our proprietary portfolio.

事實上，在我們的 24 個預算中，我們預計 24 年的毛利率將成長約 17%。其中一些已經進入了作物保護業務的方面，可能更重要的是我們計劃在我們的支柱營養和生物刺激素業務領域所做的事情，正如肯所說，我們已經實現了兩位數的成長。我認為作物營養去年增長了 10%，我們的生物刺激素業務去年增長了 20% 以上。所以，是的，作物保護對我們來說非常重要。從我們的助劑和表面的安全性的角度來看，這也非常重要，這對我們來說是高利潤的產品。去年我們的該業務領域也成長了不到 10%。從註冊的角度來看，我們的產品組合中有一些註冊。我不知道我們現在是否有一項策略可以大大增加未來的註冊量。如您所知，我們與跨國公司密切合作。從生命週期的角度來看，當其中一些產品開始出現時，我們就有機會將這些產品納入我們的專有產品組合中。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

When logistics costs for shipping Potash rise, who's penalized by that? That is net to your profits decrease because you're responsible for their shipping costs? Or do you split it with your customers? Or where if you had to quantify what the effects were, what would they be? And secondly, are you hedged in natural gas prices for the first quarter and for later in the year or no?

當運輸鉀肥的物流成本上升時，誰會受到懲罰？這是你的利潤減少的淨額，因為你要承擔他們的運輸成本？或者你與你的客戶分享它嗎？或者如果你必須量化影響是什麼，它們會是什麼？其次，您是否對第一季和今年稍後的天然氣價格進行對沖？

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. So as it relates to logistics costs, I'll hand it over to Jason Newton. But we really think about our business in terms of the cost curve, and we think about that on a delivered cost basis in the commodity space that we're in. So yes, as you would look at the supply and demand fundamentals, and we've talked a lot about that. But ultimately, if you look at the floor in our industry in this commodity space. And again, that last ton that needs to get produced, that marginal ton, all that ton includes -- we think about that on a delivered basis, what's happening with logistics. But Jason, over to you to provide more color.

是的。謝謝，傑夫。所以說到物流成本，我會把它交給傑森·牛頓（Jason Newton）。但我們確實從成本曲線的角度來考慮我們的業務，並且我們在我們所處的商品領域的交付成本基礎上考慮這一點。所以，是的，正如你所看到的供需基本面一樣，我們對此已經談了很多了。但最終，如果你看看我們產業在這個商品領域的情況。再說一次，需要生產的最後一噸，邊際噸，所有這些噸包括——我們在交付的基礎上考慮物流的情況。但是傑森，你來提供更多的色彩。

Yes, when we're looking at logistics costs, I'd say there's short and medium-term implications of that and both from a supply and demand and pricing perspective to Ken's point on the cost curve. So in a market like we're in today, where we're pressing down and certainly in the Asian markets and in Brazil to prices that are near the cost base floor. Any increase in the cost of freight from marginal regions is going to support the cost floor and ultimately provide support to floor prices. The other impact that can see, especially as freight rates increase and as we're seeing today with the issues in the Red Sea, you see differentials change, and so it impacts trade flows. And we know when fertilizer trade flows are disrupted, that tends to tighten supply-demand balances. So as we're looking at the flows east from the Baltic into Southeast Asia, for example, we know those costs have increased and especially from Belarus, the cost reduction in land logistics relative to pre-sanctioned levels are significantly higher, and we're pressing down toward those costs landed into Southeast Asia today.

是的，當我們考慮物流成本時，我想說這會產生短期和中期的影響，無論是從供需和定價的角度來看，還是肯在成本曲線上的觀點。因此，在像我們今天這樣的市場中，我們正在壓低價格，尤其是在亞洲市場和巴西，價格接近成本底線。邊緣地區貨運成本的任何增加都將支撐成本底線，並最終為底價提供支撐。可以看到的其他影響，特別是隨著運費上漲，以及我們今天看到的紅海問題，您會看到差異發生變化，從而影響貿易流量。我們知道，當化肥貿易流動中斷時，往往會導致供需平衡收緊。例如，當我們關注從波羅的海向東流入東南亞的物流時，我們知道這些成本已經增加，特別是來自白俄羅斯的陸路物流成本下降相對於預先批准的水平要高得多，而且我們我們正在努力降低今天登陸東南亞的成本。

Thank you, Jason. Yes, with respect to our hedge position on gas, it continues to be the case that we enjoy our cost advantage when you look at the delta between European gas pricing, which albeit has come off significantly from previous highs and today, we'd put it $8 to $9. But back here in North America, $250 million, we're paying for natural gas. So again, that advantage cost position given our geography. But in terms of our hedge position, we're laying the hedge at the moment, but I'll turn it over to Pedro.

謝謝你，傑森。是的，就我們對天然氣的對沖頭寸而言，當您查看歐洲天然氣價格之間的差異時，我們仍然享有成本優勢，儘管歐洲天然氣價格已較之前的高點大幅回落，但今天，我們認為8美元到9 美元。但在北美，我們支付 2.5 億美元購買天然氣。再說一次，考慮到我們的地理位置，這種優勢成本地位。但就我們的對沖頭寸而言，我們目前正在對沖，但我會將其交給佩德羅。

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. What we do with hedging, we tend to be very more contractually in the hedging. So we are looking into a base

是的。謝謝，傑夫。我們在對沖方面的做法，往往是在對沖方面更加重視合約性。所以我們正在尋找一個基地

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（技術難度）

basically firm up some of our contracts with hedges for the remaining of the year, but we have some from commitments and taking advantage of the existing low prices in the market. But we're not adopting a multiyear hedge of a position from that point. So those are more contractual related for the balance of the year.

基本上，我們在今年剩餘時間內透過對沖來鞏固一些合同，但我們也有一些來自承諾和利用市場現有低價的優勢。但我們不會從那時起對頭寸採取多年對沖。因此，這些與今年剩餘時間的合約關係更大。

Your next question comes from the line of Edlain Rodriguez from (sic) [Mizuho].

您的下一個問題來自（原文如此）[瑞穗] 的 Edlain Rodriguez。

I mean just a quick one on corn prices. Again, below $5, is that a concern for the industry in terms of whether farmers will be willing to pay higher fertilizer prices. I mean I understand that corn price is higher than historical norms, but I also understand it's a psychological number for farmers. Like how do you think this plays out if corn prices stay at those levels?

我的意思是簡單介紹一下玉米價格。同樣，低於 5 美元是該行業擔心農民是否願意支付更高的化肥價格的問題。我的意思是，我理解玉米價格高於歷史正常水平，但我也理解這對農民來說是一個心理數字。例如，如果玉米價格保持在這樣的水平，你認為情況會如何？

No. Thank you, Edlain, for the question. And we're obviously watching corn prices very closely. But I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi to provide some color on your question.

不，謝謝艾德蘭提出的問題。顯然我們正在密切關注玉米價格。但我會將其交給傑夫·塔西 (Jeff Tarsi)，為你的問題提供一些線索。

Yes, Dan, thanks for the question. And look, while crop prices have declined on the same side of the sheet, input prices have declined as well, especially as it relates to corn, when I look at it, number one, if you look in the North American market, the U.S. market, most of our corn in the Midwest is on a rotational basis. That's a corn followed by soybeans. And those growers don't break out of those rotations. Secondly is they're planning the best germplasm and this germplasm takes a lot of horsepower to produce the type yields that it's able to produce. And so when growers commit, if I look at our seed bookings today, as Ken mentioned earlier, they're very healthy. And growers still want to plant the best genetics, the best freight packages. They're not going to put that seed in the ground and not give it to horsepower and nutrient it needs to produce a full yield because when you get in these situations like we're in right now with lower prices on it, then without a doubt, yield now become team. You have to produce yield in order to make it work. And I think it's pretty reflective as well as we went into our fall, our fertilizer application was up 15%. Very heavy fall. That's a very strong indication of grower sentiment and what they're thinking. And our prepaid was very strong as well, and a lot of that prepaid went toward purchasing fertilizer for '24. So I think once the seeds in the ground, growers is going to be committed to giving all the inputs it needs because, again, it's going to be really key to produce high yield in this type of environment.

是的，丹，謝謝你的提問。看，雖然農作物價格在表格的同一側下降，但投入價格也下降了，特別是與玉米相關的價格，當我看它時，第一，如果你看看北美市場，美國。市場上，我們中西部的玉米大多是輪作的。這是玉米，然後是大豆。這些種植者不會擺脫這些輪作。其次，他們正在計劃最好的種質，而這種種質需要大量的馬力才能產生其能夠產生的類型產量。因此，當種植者承諾時，如果我看看我們今天的種子預訂，正如肯之前提到的那樣，它們非常健康。種植者仍然希望種植最好的基因、最好的貨運包裝。他們不會把種子種在地裡，也不會給它提供全部產量所需的馬力和養分，因為當你遇到像我們現在這樣的情況時，價格較低，然後沒有疑問，屈服現在成為團隊。你必須產生產量才能使其發揮作用。我認為這很能反映我們進入秋季的情況，我們的施肥量增加了 15%。摔得很重。這非常強烈地表明了種植者的情緒和他們的想法。我們的預付款也非常強勁，其中許多預付款都用於購買 24 年的化肥。因此，我認為一旦種子埋入地下，種植者將致力於提供所需的所有投入，因為這將是在這種環境下獲得高產量的真正關鍵。

Operator, we have time for one more question.

接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Your last question comes from the line of Aron Ceccarelli from Berenberg.

你的最後一個問題來自貝倫貝格的 Aron Ceccarelli。

I would like to ask you if you can be a little bit more specific on supply on Potash. I was looking at your Q3 press release, and you were mentioning that Belarus, you were expecting to be down approximately 4 million tonnes compared to 2021 and Russia to be down approximately 2 million tonnes to 2021 for 2023. What do you expect for 2024? Do you expect discounting to be back now to the level of 2021 or actually even above 2021? And where do you see these countries directing volumes these days?

我想問您是否可以更具體地介紹一下 Potash 的供應情況。我正在查看你們第三季的新聞稿，你們提到白俄羅斯預計 2023 年產量將比 2021 年減少約 400 萬噸，俄羅斯預計到 2021 年產量將減少約 200 萬噸。你對 2024 年有何預期？您預計折扣現在會回到 2021 年的水平還是實際上甚至高於 2021 年？您認為這些國家目前的銷售量在哪裡？

Thank you, Aron. And yes, so a couple of questions there on times returning to the market and where they're going. We do not see in 2024 volumes out of the FSU returning to 2021 levels fully, but certainly for the most part. But I'll hand it over to Jason Newton to walk through that.

謝謝你，阿倫。是的，有幾個關於返回市場的時間和去向的問題。我們預計 2024 年 FSU 的銷量不會完全恢復到 2021 年的水平，但肯定是大部分。但我會將其交給 Jason Newton 來完成。

Sure. I guess just to start from where we ended up in 2023, we think shipments in '23 estimated between 67 million and 68 million tonnes, so above the high end of our previous range. And that was facilitated by higher-than-expected shipments from both Russia and Belarus, both still down. So Russia down close to 2 million tonnes in 2023 compared to 2021 levels and Belarus is still down in the range of 3 million tonnes versus 2021. For the region as a whole, we'd expect somewhere in the range of 1.5 million tonnes of additional production in 2024 versus 2023. So for both Russian dollars not back to 2021 levels. But again, we've seen relatively stable shipments from those regions since late 2023.

當然。我想從 2023 年的最終結果開始，我們認為 23 年的出貨量估計在 6700 萬噸至 6800 萬噸之間，因此高於我們之前範圍的高端。俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的出貨量高於預期，這兩個國家的出貨量仍然下降，推動了這個趨勢。因此，與2021 年的水準相比，俄羅斯2023 年的產量減少了近200 萬噸，白俄羅斯的產量仍比2021 年減少了300 萬噸。對於整個地區來說，我們預計額外產量將在150 萬噸左右。2024 年與 2023 年的產量。因此，俄羅斯美元不會回到 2021 年的水平。但自 2023 年底以來，我們再次看到這些地區的出貨量相對穩定。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Jeff Holzman for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給傑夫·霍爾茲曼（Jeff Holzman）做總結發言。

Okay. Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available if anyone has follow-up questions. Have a great day.

好的。感謝您今天加入我們。如果有人有後續問題，可以聯絡投資人關係團隊。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。