(NTR) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Nutrien 2023 First Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Holzman, VP of Investor Relations.

大家好，歡迎來到 Nutrien 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。問答環節將在正式介紹之後進行。提醒一下，這次會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Holzman。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's First Quarter 2023 Conference Call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain material assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form filed with Canadian and U.S. Securities Commissions. I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, President and CEO; and Pedro Farah, our CFO, for opening comments before we take your questions.

謝謝你，運營商。早上好，歡迎來到 Nutrien 2023 年第一季度電話會議。在我們進行此次電話會議時，我們就未來預期、計劃和前景所做的各種聲明都包含前瞻性信息。作出這些結論和預測時應用了某些重大假設。因此，實際結果可能與我們前瞻性信息中包含的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的更多信息包含在我們提交給股東的季度報告以及我們向加拿大和美國證券委員會提交的最新年度報告、MD&A 和年度信息表中。我現在將電話轉交給總裁兼首席執行官 Ken Seitz；以及我們的首席財務官 Pedro Farah，感謝他們在我們回答您的問題之前發表評論。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. Nutrien's first quarter results reflect the impact of structural supply issues and shifting buying patterns that have contributed to an unprecedented period of market volatility. We delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion, the second highest for any first quarter on record, continuing to demonstrate the advantages of our flexible, low-cost production assets and global distribution network. We invested $700 million to sustain and grow our assets and returned over $1.1 billion to shareholders in the first quarter. While our full year outlook is lower than previously expected, we are encouraged by the continued stabilization of crop nutrient markets and anticipate increased fertilizer demand in the second half of the year. We expect to generate strong cash flows in 2023 and maintain a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation. Shifting to the highlights from the first quarter. Nutrien Ag Solutions results were impacted by delays to grow our purchases and to lower margins compared to the exceptionally strong period in 2022. We Retail fertilizer prices declined in the quarter, albeit at a slower pace than wholesale benchmark prices and margins were below normalized levels as we worked through higher cost inventory. We ended the quarter with U.S. fertilizer inventory down 10% year-over-year, leaving a significant amount of our spring fertilizer volume to procure in the second quarter.

早上好。感謝您今天加入我們。 Nutrien 第一季度的業績反映了結構性供應問題和不斷變化的購買模式的影響，這些問題導致了前所未有的市場波動期。我們實現了 14 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，是有記錄以來第一季度的第二高，繼續展示了我們靈活、低成本的生產資產和全球分銷網絡的優勢。我們投資了 7 億美元來維持和發展我們的資產，並在第一季度向股東返還了超過 11 億美元。雖然我們的全年前景低於此前預期，但我們對作物養分市場的持續穩定感到鼓舞，並預計下半年化肥需求將增加。我們預計 2023 年將產生強勁的現金流，並保持平衡和有紀律的資本配置方法。從第一季度轉移到亮點。與 2022 年異常強勁的時期相比，Nutrien Ag Solutions 的業績受到採購增長延遲和利潤率降低的影響。我們本季度的化肥零售價格有所下降，儘管速度低於批發基準價格，而且利潤率低於正常水平，因為我們解決了更高成本的庫存問題。我們在本季度結束時美國化肥庫存同比下降 10%，第二季度我們需要採購大量春季肥料。

Crop Protection product margins were impacted by lower prices for certain herbicide products and and later grower engagement compared to the previous year. This resulted in a temporary build of crop protection inventory, but this product is moving through the channel in the second quarter as field work has accelerated. Seed sales and margins improved due to higher prices, increased crop acreage and the strong performance of our proprietary seed lines. We completed 8 retail acquisitions during the quarter in the U.S., Brazil and Australia. In Brazil, our primary focus in 2023 is on the integration of acquisitions completed last year. The results for our potash, nitrogen and phosphate business were impacted by lower benchmark prices compared to the exceptionally strong period in 2022. We had good initial uptake for our potash winter fill program in North America. However, volumes were down from the prior year as customers purchased on a just-in-time basis. Canpotex sold record volumes to Brazil, driven by strong demand for the Sofina planting season and to lower imports from Eastern European producers compared to Q1 2022. Potash shipments to spot markets in Asia declined as our customers work down inventory and contract settlements with India and China were delayed as buying patterns continue to evolve. Global potash prices were relatively stable to begin the year, but declined later in the quarter due to the lack of consistent market engagement.

作物保護產品的利潤率受到某些除草劑產品價格下降以及與上一年相比種植者參與度下降的影響。這導致作物保護庫存暫時增加，但隨著田間工作的加速，該產品在第二季度正在通過渠道。由於價格上漲、作物種植面積增加以及我們專有種子系列的強勁表現，種子銷售和利潤率有所提高。本季度，我們在美國、巴西和澳大利亞完成了 8 項零售收購。在巴西，我們 2023 年的主要重點是整合去年完成的收購。與 2022 年異常強勁的時期相比，我們鉀肥、氮肥和磷酸鹽業務的業績受到較低基準價格的影響。我們在北美的鉀肥冬季補充計劃取得了良好的初步進展。但是，由於客戶是按時購買的，因此銷量比上一年有所下降。受 Sofina 種植季節強勁需求以及與 2022 年第一季度相比東歐生產商進口量減少的推動，Canpotex 向巴西的銷量創歷史新高。隨著我們的客戶減少庫存以及與印度和中國的合同結算，向亞洲現貨市場的鉀肥出貨量下降隨著購買模式的不斷發展而被推遲。年初全球鉀肥價格相對穩定，但由於缺乏一致的市場參與，本季度末有所下跌。

We adjusted potash production across our low-cost network and pulled forward maintenance activities, preserving the flexibility to quickly ramp up production when stronger demand reemerges. Nitrogen benchmark prices were highly volatile due to a sharp drop in European gas prices, lower Indian urea imports and weaker industrial demand. Our North American nitrogen plants operated very well in the quarter and benefited from low natural gas costs in comparison to other global producers. Trinidad was impacted by gas curtailments of approximately 20%, which was in line with our previous expectations. We are progressing well on engineering work for our Geismar clean ammonia project and remain on track to make a final investment decision in the second half of 2023. In recent months, we have received significant external interest regarding co-investment or potential equity partnerships in the project. We plan to explore these options as we continue our evaluation of the project with a view of maximizing value for shareholders. Our phosphate business benefited from the stability of our feed and industrial product lines, partially offsetting the impact of lower sales volumes and fertilizer prices. We completed maintenance and reliability initiatives during the quarter and are targeting utilization rates above 90% in the second half of the year. Turning to the outlook. Geopolitical and weather-related challenges continue to impact global agriculture commodity markets. The global grain stocks to use ratio is at its lowest point in more than 25 years, and we expect it will take multiple cropping cycles to restore stocks to more adequate levels.

我們調整了整個低成本網絡的鉀肥生產，並推進了維護活動，保持了在強勁需求重新出現時快速提高產量的靈活性。由於歐洲天然氣價格大幅下跌、印度尿素進口減少以及工業需求疲軟，氮氣基準價格大幅波動。與全球其他生產商相比，我們的北美氮氣工廠在本季度運營良好，並受益於較低的天然氣成本。特立尼達受到約 20% 的天然氣削減的影響，這符合我們之前的預期。我們的 Geismar 清潔氨項目的工程工作進展順利，並有望在 2023 年下半年做出最終投資決定。最近幾個月，我們收到了有關共同投資或潛在股權合作夥伴關係的大量外部興趣項目。我們計劃在繼續評估項目時探索這些選項，以實現股東價值最大化。我們的磷酸鹽業務受益於我們飼料和工業產品線的穩定性，部分抵消了銷量和化肥價格下降的影響。我們在本季度完成了維護和可靠性計劃，併計劃在下半年將利用率提高到 90% 以上。轉向前景。地緣政治和天氣相關的挑戰繼續影響著全球農產品市場。全球糧食庫存與使用比率處於 25 年多來的最低點，我們預計需要多個種植週期才能將庫存恢復到更充足的水平。

Agriculture is a seasonal business, and there has been some near-term pressure on crop prices resulting from a record Brazilian soybean harvest and favorable planting progress in the U.S. Even with this recent softening, new crop futures for corn, soybeans and wheat are around 15% above the 10-year average. Growers are increasing acreage and have the incentive to invest in their crop, leading to strong demand for crop inputs as the planting season progresses in the Northern Hemisphere. To give you some context from a fertilizer demand standpoint, our second quarter U.S. retail fertilizer sales volumes are currently up 40% compared to the previous year. With product moving rapidly through the supply chain, we have seen some spot shortages in the U.S., in particular, for potash and urea. This is highlighting the challenges that can emerge from just-in-time purchasing. Retail fertilizer inventories are projected to end the second quarter down significantly compared to last year, which supports the need for a strong summer refill. We expect second half global potash demand will be up significantly compared to the same period in 2022, with the majority of the increase in Brazil and North America, which are the 2 largest markets for our potash. The timing of a new China contract remains uncertain, but we do not view this as a significant impediment to a recovery in global demand. Global trade flows have evolved over the past year, and China's seaborne imports now represent only 5% of global shipments. For Nutrien, it also represents a relatively small percentage of our total sales as we have shifted more volume to higher netback markets. On the supply side, Belarus has gradually increased potash exports through ports in Russia, partially offset by lower Russian production producer exports. We expect Eastern European potash shipments will be up approximately 15% in 2023 compared to last year, but still down 30% from 2021. We maintained our global potash shipment forecast at 63 million to 67 million tonnes, which is well below the estimated trend demand of above 70 million tons. We expect increased demand as markets stabilize, driven by growth in global crop production, lower channel inventories and the need to replenish potassium levels in the soil. I will now turn it over to Pedro to review our guidance assumptions and capital allocation plans for 2023.

農業是季節性行業，由於巴西大豆收成創紀錄和美國播種進展良好，農作物價格近期面臨一些壓力。即使近期出現走軟，玉米、大豆和小麥的新作物期貨價格仍約為 15 % 高於 10 年平均水平。種植者正在增加種植面積，並有動力投資於他們的作物，隨著北半球播種季節的推進，導致對作物投入的強勁需求。為了從化肥需求的角度為您提供一些背景信息，我們第二季度美國零售化肥銷量與去年同期相比增長了 40%。隨著產品在供應鏈中快速移動，我們發現美國出現了一些現貨短缺，尤其是鉀肥和尿素。這凸顯了即時採購可能帶來的挑戰。與去年相比，零售肥料庫存預計將在第二季度結束時大幅下降，這支持了對強勁夏季補充的需求。我們預計，與 2022 年同期相比，下半年全球鉀肥需求將大幅增長，其中巴西和北美是我們鉀肥的兩個最大市場。新的中國合同的時間仍不確定，但我們認為這不是全球需求復甦的重大障礙。全球貿易流在過去一年發生了變化，中國的海運進口目前僅佔全球出貨量的 5%。對於 Nutrien 而言，它也只占我們總銷售額的一小部分，因為我們已將更多的銷量轉移到更高的淨回值市場。在供應方面，白俄羅斯逐漸增加了通過俄羅斯港口的鉀肥出口，部分被俄羅斯生產商出口減少所抵消。我們預計 2023 年東歐鉀肥出貨量將比去年增長約 15%，但仍比 2021 年下降 30%。我們將全球鉀肥出貨量預測維持在 6300 萬噸至 6700 萬噸，遠低於估計的趨勢需求7000萬噸以上。我們預計，在全球作物產量增長、渠道庫存下降以及需要補充土壤鉀含量的推動下，隨著市場穩定，需求將增加。我現在將其轉交給佩德羅來審查我們 2023 年的指導假設和資本配置計劃。

Thanks, Ken. Good morning. Our revised full year guidance reflects changes in fertilizer benchmark prices since mid-February and our expectation of a more stable market going forward. In retail, our initial guidance assume a reset in crop nutrient and crop protection margins compared to the extraordinary levels achieved in 2022. In North America, demand is accelerating as expected, but we have seen fertilizer margins temporarily drop below normalized levels as we work down higher cost inventory. We expect to end the spring season with very low inventories and for North America crop nutrient margins to recover in the second half. We could still see below normal margins in Brazil in the third quarter as grower purchases are not likely to accelerate until close to the spring planting season in September. Turning to potash, we assume North American prices remain firm through spring and then follow a typical seasonal pricing pattern. Offshore prices have moved lower in the second quarter due to the lack of consistent buying. However, we forecast prices to stabilize in the second half as demand increases. We lower our 2023 potash sales volume guidance to 13.5 million to 4.3 million tons, due to the delayed contract settlements and slightly higher export volumes from Eastern Europe. We have adjusted our production plans accordingly, and we'll maintain a flexible approach to our potash ramp-up, facing the timing of capital expenditures with the expected recovery in demand. The investments completed to date have provided for greater production flexibility and increased our autonomous mining capabilities. These are important initiatives that enhance safety and reliability while supporting the low-cost position of our potash mines.

謝謝，肯。早上好。我們修訂後的全年指引反映了自 2 月中旬以來化肥基準價格的變化以及我們對未來市場更加穩定的預期。在零售方面，我們的初步指導假設與 2022 年達到的超常水平相比，作物養分和作物保護利潤率有所重置。在北美，需求如預期一樣加速增長，但隨著我們的努力，我們已經看到化肥利潤率暫時低於正常水平存貨成本較高。我們預計春季將以非常低的庫存結束，北美作物營養利潤率將在下半年恢復。我們仍可能看到巴西第三季度的利潤率低於正常水平，因為種植者的採購量可能要到 9 月份接近春季種植季節時才會加速。談到鉀肥，我們假設北美價格在春季保持堅挺，然後遵循典型的季節性定價模式。由於缺乏持續的購買，離岸價格在第二季度走低。然而，我們預計下半年隨著需求增加價格將趨於穩定。我們將 2023 年鉀肥銷量指引下調至 1350 萬噸至 430 萬噸，原因是合同結算延遲以及東歐的出口量略有增加。我們已經相應地調整了我們的生產計劃，我們將保持靈活的方式來增加鉀肥產量，以應對資本支出的時機和預期的需求復蘇。迄今為止完成的投資提供了更大的生產靈活性並提高了我們的自主採礦能力。這些都是提高安全性和可靠性的重要舉措，同時支持我們的鉀鹽礦的低成本地位。

In nitrogen, we forecast a normal seasonal reset for urea and UAN prices following spring. We expect an increase in global ammonia prices during the second half as prices are currently trading well below the estimated margin of cost, which we do not believe is sustainable or an extended period. We are assuming U.S. natural gas prices will average around $3 per MMBtu in 2023 and Western Canadian gas below that level, continuing to position our nitrogen assets at the low end of the global cost curve. Cash from operating activities is projected at $5 billion to EUR 5.8 billion in 2023, a relatively small decline compared to our previous forecast. As we have stated before, one of the benefits of our integrated business is the countercyclical impacts on cash flow. We project a large increase release of working capital with a reset in fertilizer prices. And our cash conversion ratio would have been even higher this year, if not for the timing impact of cash tax payments. We continue to deploy a disciplined approach to capital allocation that balances our priorities of maintaining a strong balance sheet, investing in sustainability and growth of the business, and providing meaningful return to shareholders. While our cash flow allows us to fund all of our strategic projects, and we have a strong balance sheet to cushion the volatility, we will continue to review our investments to ensure they provide the best return on investment through the cycle. We allocated $900 million of share repurchases in the first quarter and intend to remain opportunistic, taking advantage of our existing NCIB. We announced a 10% increase in our dividend per share in February that aligned to the significant reduction in share count over the previous 12 months. Since 2018, we have reduced our outstanding share count by 23% and increased the dividend per share by 33%, demonstrating our commitment to capital returns through the cycle. I'll now pass it back to Ken.

在氮氣方面，我們預測春季後尿素和尿素價格將出現正常的季節性重置。我們預計下半年全球合成氨價格將上漲，因為目前的價格遠低於估計的成本利潤率，我們認為這是不可持續的或長期存在的。我們假設 2023 年美國天然氣價格平均約為每百萬英熱單位 3 美元，而加拿大西部的天然氣價格將低於該水平，從而繼續將我們的氮資產置於全球成本曲線的低端。到 2023 年，經營活動產生的現金預計為 50 億美元至 58 億歐元，與我們之前的預測相比降幅相對較小。正如我們之前所說，我們綜合業務的好處之一是對現金流的反週期影響。我們預計隨著化肥價格的重新調整，營運資金將大幅增加。如果不是因為現金納稅的時間影響，我們今年的現金轉換率會更高。我們繼續採用嚴格的資本配置方法，以平衡我們的優先事項，即維持穩健的資產負債表、投資於業務的可持續性和增長，以及為股東提供有意義的回報。雖然我們的現金流使我們能夠為所有戰略項目提供資金，並且我們擁有強大的資產負債表來緩衝波動，但我們將繼續審查我們的投資，以確保它們在整個週期內提供最佳投資回報。我們在第一季度分配了 9 億美元的股票回購，並打算利用我們現有的 NCIB 保持機會主義。我們在 2 月份宣布將每股股息增加 10%，這與過去 12 個月的股票數量大幅減少相吻合。自 2018 年以來，我們已將流通股數量減少 23%，並將每股股息提高 33%，表明我們對整個週期資本回報的承諾。我現在將它傳回給肯。

Thanks, Pedro. I will just make a few final comments. The fundamentals for our business remain strong. We anticipate increased fertilizer demand in the second half of 2023, and supply issues that emerged in 2022 have yet to be resolved. Following a period of unprecedented volatility, we expect fertilizer prices to stabilize near mid-cycle values, reflecting the strength of underlying market fundamentals. We are generating strong cash flow from our integrated business and will remain disciplined in our capital allocation approach as we position the company to serve the needs of our customers and deliver long-term value for our shareholders. We would now be happy to take your questions.

謝謝，佩德羅。我將作最後幾點評論。我們業務的基本面依然強勁。我們預計 2023 年下半年肥料需求將增加，而 2022 年出現的供應問題尚未得到解決。在經歷了一段前所未有的波動之後，我們預計化肥價格將穩定在周期中期附近，反映出潛在市場基本面的實力。我們正在從我們的綜合業務中產生強勁的現金流，並將在我們的資本配置方法中保持紀律，因為我們將公司定位為滿足客戶的需求並為我們的股東創造長期價值。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now conduct the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank.

謝謝。女士們，先生們，我們現在將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Ben Isaacson。

Just on potash. You talked about just-in-time buying. Southeast Asia is destocking. Can you or Jason or Chris, remind us of when are the key buying times in each of the main regions? And how are channel inventories in those regions? And if I can just sneak in a really quick one. On the Q4 call, when you talked about your 5% buyback, the stock was about $80, and now it's about $60. Has that changed your philosophy in terms of how aggressive you'll be when it comes to buybacks?

就在鉀肥上。你談到了即時購買。東南亞正在去庫存。你或 Jason 或 Chris 能否提醒我們每個主要地區的關鍵購買時間是什麼時候？這些地區的渠道庫存情況如何？如果我能偷偷溜進去一個非常快的。在第四季度的電話會議上，當你談到你的 5% 回購時，股票價格約為 80 美元，現在約為 60 美元。這是否改變了你在回購方面的積極態度？

Yes. Good morning Ben, and thank you for the question. And yes, absolutely, we sort of walk market by market on potash as we've done in the past. And so maybe I'll hand that over to Mark and probably augment it by Jason. And then on the share buyback question, I'll hand it over to Pedro. So thanks, Ben.

是的。早上好，本，謝謝你的提問。是的，絕對是，我們像過去一樣在鉀肥市場上逐個市場走動。因此，也許我會把它交給 Mark，並可能由 Jason 進行擴充。然後關於股票回購問題，我會把它交給佩德羅。所以謝謝，本。

Ben, this is Mark. So maybe I'll just do a bit of a flyover on some of the key markets, and then I'll pass it to Jason to talk about specific timing of application season I think generally, as Ken said in his comments, there's really 3 key themes here we see in potash globally. I think first, it remains a supply-constrained market. And really what we see relative to our expectations in February is about 1 million more tonnes coming out of the former Soviet Union as a whole. I think second, as Ken mentioned, we are seeing trade flows shift structurally. And really the biggest themes there that we see is the North American production is becoming more important innovator proportion of buying in markets like North America, Brazil and Southeast Asia, former Soviet Union production is disproportionately moving into China. And then third, production of lays is increasingly finding markets in China and Southeast Asia. And so I think those are the 3 biggest factors as it relates to the structural shifts. And third, as Ken mentioned, we do see demand recovering in the second half and certainly do see long-term trend demand intact. So maybe just to drill down into some of the markets more specifically. Brazil was certainly a bright spot in Q1. Capitec had record shipments into Brazil in Q1. We did see a recovery there, and we do expect a rebound for the remainder of the year and buying to accelerate to meet their seasonal means as we move through the second quarter and into the second half.

本，這是馬克。所以也許我會在一些關鍵市場做一些天橋，然後我會把它傳遞給 Jason 來談談申請季節的具體時間，我認為一般來說，正如 Ken 在他的評論中所說，真的有 3我們在全球鉀肥中看到的關鍵主題。我認為首先，它仍然是一個供應受限的市場。實際上，與我們 2 月份的預期相比，我們看到的是整個前蘇聯的出口量增加了約 100 萬噸。我認為其次，正如 Ken 提到的，我們看到貿易流量在結構上發生轉變。我們看到的真正最大的主題是北美生產在北美、巴西和東南亞等市場的購買中所佔比例越來越重要，前蘇聯生產正在不成比例地轉移到中國。第三，產蛋產品越來越多地在中國和東南亞找到市場。因此，我認為這些是與結構性轉變相關的 3 個最大因素。第三，正如 Ken 所提到的，我們確實看到需求在下半年復蘇，並且肯定會看到長期趨勢需求完好無損。因此，也許只是為了更具體地深入研究一些市場。巴西無疑是第一季度的亮點。 Capitec 在第一季度對巴西的出貨量創下紀錄。我們確實看到了那裡的複蘇，我們確實預計今年剩餘時間會出現反彈，並且隨著我們進入第二季度和下半年，購買將加速以滿足他們的季節性需求。

From an India standpoint, obviously, there was contracts signed with major producers and suppliers recently. One of the big items that we're waiting for there, while we have seen some products start to move is a subsidy announcement from India, right now, we would probably be historically late for that announcement. So we expect that at any time. And we would anticipate that when that's announced, we'll see further movement in product into India. From a Southeast Asia standpoint, we have seen some volume moving to Southeast Asia. We've seen inventories that were higher costs from 2022 continue to be worked down. We did see some reengagement in buying following the Indian contract. Inventories are normalizing, and we are starting to see fresh purchases. And again, we would expect those to accelerate through the second quarter and into the second half. And then I think finally on China. From an inventory standpoint today, we would see port inventories in China between 2.3 million and 2.5 million tonnes, probably about 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes of that is sitting in bonded warehouses today. And certainly, we have seen that inventory be a little bit stickier because of the trade flow shifts that we've seen. But as Ken said, I think what we've seen over the past 12 months, certainly from a China perspective is that while the contract markets have historically been benchmarks or events that the global markets look to, in a year like 2023, with these trade flow shifts, we think China's seaborne imports are only going to represent about 5% of global shipments. And so we expect that this is going to be a trend that these contracts will be less significance to the global market over time and really a smaller part of the picture. So finally, in North America, as we've talked about, because of the lack of field activity in Q1, we had a seasonally slow Q1. But really, in April, things have picked up substantially. I was just in the field last week with our team. And as Ken said, product is moving extremely well. We saw one of the biggest drawdowns in the last 5 years, month-over-month between March and April in our customer-owned inventories, and certainly saw inland production of potash moving very well at our distribution terminals. So I think from a timing perspective, I'll just let Jason talk about some of the specifics on that.

從印度的角度來看，顯然最近與主要生產商和供應商簽訂了合同。我們在那裡等待的一件大事是印度的補貼公告，雖然我們已經看到一些產品開始移動，但現在，我們可能會在歷史上遲到該公告。所以我們隨時都希望如此。我們預計，當宣布這一消息時，我們將看到產品進一步轉移到印度。從東南亞的角度來看，我們已經看到一些交易量轉移到了東南亞。我們已經看到，從 2022 年開始成本較高的庫存繼續減少。我們確實看到在印度合約之後有一些重新參與購買。庫存正在正常化，我們開始看到新的採購。同樣，我們預計這些將在第二季度和下半年加速。最後我想到了中國。從今天的庫存角度來看，我們將看到中國的港口庫存在 230 萬至 250 萬噸之間，其中今天可能有 50 萬至 60 萬噸存放在保稅倉庫中。當然，由於我們看到的貿易流向變化，我們已經看到庫存變得有點粘。但正如 Ken 所說，我認為我們在過去 12 個月中看到的，當然是從中國的角度來看，雖然合約市場在歷史上一直是全球市場關注的基准或事件，但在 2023 年這樣的一年裡，隨著這些貿易流向轉變，我們認為中國的海運進口僅佔全球出貨量的 5% 左右。因此，我們預計這將成為一種趨勢，隨著時間的推移，這些合同對全球市場的重要性將降低，而且實際上只佔圖片的一小部分。最後，正如我們所說，在北美，由於第一季度缺乏實地活動，我們的第一季度季節性放緩。但實際上，在 4 月份，情況已經大幅好轉。上週我和我們的團隊一起在現場。正如 Ken 所說，產品進展非常順利。我們看到了過去 5 年中最大的縮減之一，在 3 月和 4 月之間，我們的客戶擁有的庫存逐月減少，當然我們的分銷終端的內陸鉀肥生產進展順利。所以我認為從時間的角度來看，我會讓 Jason 談談這方面的一些細節。

Sure. Thanks, Mark. Just to start with Southeast Asia and the timing of shipments and applications in that market. It is a region, particularly as we look at Indonesia and Malaysia where there's a long lead time between purchases and applications. And that's part of the reason why the high-priced inventories are holding up there. So there's large volumes purchased early in the second half of last year that flowed in through the end of 2022 and carried over into early 2023 and start to see applications in late Q1 and those inventories moved lower through the second quarter of the year in Southeast Asia. And then in Brazil, in terms of the timing, just we did see unusually strong imports of potash in Brazil in the second quarter of last year, which really led to a buildup in inventories in that market in front of Q3, and we'd expect more normal levels of imports in through Q2 and then the seasonally normal volume of imports coming in late Q2, early Q3 in front of the applications for their spring season in September.

當然。謝謝，馬克。只是從東南亞以及該市場的出貨和應用時間開始。這是一個地區，尤其是當我們觀察印度尼西亞和馬來西亞時，購買和申請之間的準備時間很長。這也是高價庫存堅挺的部分原因。因此，去年下半年初大量採購流入到 2022 年底並延續到 2023 年初，並在第一季度末開始看到申請，而這些庫存在今年第二季度在東南亞有所下降.然後在巴西，就時間而言，去年第二季度我們確實看到巴西的鉀肥進口異常強勁，這確實導致該市場在第三季度之前增加了庫存，我們會預計整個第二季度的進口量將達到更正常的水平，然後在第二季度末、第三季度初在 9 月份的春季申請之前出現季節性正常的進口量。

And maybe, Ben, just to address your last question about the buybacks. So we intend to remain opportunistic in the market. As we mentioned before, we already since MOE bought 23% of our share count. We do have a very strong balance sheet that allows us to take a long-term view in terms of value and that continues to pay off in terms of our free cash flow per share. So just to kind of give you a quick compare, in 2021, when our EBITDA was $7.7 billion. Our free cash flow per share was $3.4 per share. And if we jump now to kind of a similar year, I'm excluding 2022 because, of course, it's like an anomalous year. In 2023, we have a kind of a midpoint of our guidance of about $7.3 million and our free cash flow per share is 4.7%. So that's an almost 40% increase in our free cash flow per share. So we think that strategy is paying off. We intend to use the balance sheet, and if we see value, we'll be opportunistic about it.

也許，本，只是為了解決你關於回購的最後一個問題。因此，我們打算在市場上保持機會主義。正如我們之前提到的，我們已經從 MOE 購買了我們 23% 的股份。我們確實擁有非常強大的資產負債表，使我們能夠從長遠角度看待價值，並繼續在我們的每股自由現金流方面獲得回報。因此，為了快速比較一下，2021 年我們的 EBITDA 為 77 億美元。我們的每股自由現金流為每股 3.4 美元。如果我們現在跳到類似的年份，我將 2022 年排除在外，因為這當然是反常的一年。到 2023 年，我們的指導中間值約為 730 萬美元，每股自由現金流為 4.7%。因此，我們的每股自由現金流增加了近 40%。因此，我們認為該策略正在奏效。我們打算使用資產負債表，如果我們看到價值，我們就會投機取巧。

Your next question comes from the line of Jacob Bout from CIBC.

你的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Jacob Bout。

My question is on normalized EBITDA and how are you thinking about that? If we go back to your Investor Day last year, you kind of walked through the case of Venice EBITDA of around $9 billion. Do you still think this is realistic? I know you're making some commentary about mid-cycle prices for the remainder of the year. But the midpoint of '23 guidance is well below that $9 billion. Just any commentary there would be helpful.

我的問題是關於標準化的 EBITDA，您如何看待這個問題？如果我們回到去年的“投資者日”，您就了解了威尼斯 EBITDA 約為 90 億美元的案例。你還認為這現實嗎？我知道您正在就今年剩餘時間的周期中期價格發表一些評論。但 23 年指導的中點遠低於 90 億美元。那裡的任何評論都會有所幫助。

Jacob, thank you for the question. Yes, what we would say is, yes, we do. And there's a few reasons for that. If we look at the assumptions when we talk about mid-cycle EBITDA of $9 billion. It's really predicated on the structural shift that we've seen in energy, agriculture and crop nutrient markets and really lending to what we see is a strip going forward that's about $50 more across crop nutrients than we had assumed prior to this conflict in Eastern Europe. It also assumes additional volumes. And so there's a timing effect here, obviously, as we look at wrapping up potash volumes over time. And as we talk about our brownfield investments in our nitrogen fleet and also our clean ammonia project, which is also going to bring volume. And then finally, when we talk about normalized EBITDA ranges within our retail business, and it is true that we've had a reset in our retail business. We talked about that at the end of last year. We expected that to happen this year, of course, as it relates to the softness that we saw in crop nutrient markets -- in the first quarter, that reset is bigger than we had anticipated. That's reflected in our results. But when we think about normalized EBITDA ranges of our retail business, it too contributes to that $9 billion mid cycle. So if we walk across those assumptions, there is a timing effect here, but we believe that those assumptions remain intact.

雅各布，謝謝你的提問。是的，我們會說的是，是的，我們做到了。這有幾個原因。如果我們在談論 90 億美元的中期 EBITDA 時查看假設。這實際上是基於我們在能源、農業和作物養分市場中看到的結構性轉變，並且真正借給我們看到的是一個未來的地帶，比我們在東歐衝突之前假設的要高出約 50 美元.它還假設有額外的捲。所以這裡有一個時間效應，很明顯，當我們考慮隨著時間的推移結束鉀肥量時。當我們談論我們對我們的氮氣車隊以及我們的清潔氨項目的棕地投資時，這也將帶來數量。最後，當我們談論零售業務中的標準化 EBITDA 範圍時，我們的零售業務確實已經重新設置。我們在去年年底談到了這一點。當然，我們預計今年會發生這種情況，因為這與我們在作物養分市場看到的疲軟有關——在第一季度，這種重置比我們預期的要大。這反映在我們的結果中。但是，當我們考慮零售業務的正常化 EBITDA 範圍時，它也對 90 億美元的中期週期做出了貢獻。因此，如果我們跨越這些假設，這裡會產生時間效應，但我們相信這些假設仍然完好無損。

Your next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

Maybe a 2-parter for me. So if we take your potash volume guide, it's going to be the best 9 months like the best Q2 to Q4 in aggregate that Metro's ever had at 11 million tons. Can you do that in a year without meaningful seaborne Chinese volumes? And what do you assume in the midpoint of that for Chinese seaborne volumes? And then just back on the buyback, if you look at slide, I got the slide now before you show your operating cash flow, like it looks like you're suggesting there's really no more room for any additional repurchases this year at the midpoint.

也許對我來說是 2 人。因此，如果我們採用您的鉀肥產量指南，這將是最好的 9 個月，就像 Metro 曾經擁有的 1100 萬噸的最佳 Q2 至 Q4 總量。在沒有有意義的海運中國貨量的情況下，你能在一年內做到這一點嗎？您認為中國海運量的中間值是多少？然後回到回購，如果你看幻燈片，我現在在你顯示你的運營現金流之前得到了幻燈片，看起來你在暗示今年在中點真的沒有更多的空間進行任何額外的回購。

Right. So as it relates to our plan for potash this year and the shifting trade patterns that Mark described earlier and how we're navigating that, I will pass that back to Mark. And then as it relates to what we might do this year with share buybacks that last will be Pedro.

正確的。因此，由於它與我們今年的鉀肥計劃以及馬克之前描述的不斷變化的貿易模式以及我們如何駕馭它有關，我會把它傳回給馬克。然後，因為它與我們今年可能會做的股票回購有關，最後將是佩德羅。

So just to reiterate a couple of the comments I made earlier and that Ken's made. We do see the shifting trade flows playing a role here. But nonetheless, even at 5% of global shipments, China is likely going to need 3.5 million tonnes or give or take 0.5 million tons on either side of that and on seaborne imports that are going to have to be met. And we ultimately believe that in the second half, China is going to need that volume. So we do see Canpotex playing a role in meeting those needs. But one of the other points that I'll call out again is the record volumes that we've seen in Q1 from Canpotex into Brazil. And the fact that we are seeing Canadian production become far more important in some of these other key markets, including Brazil and Southeast Asia. So when we consider the fact that we do believe China is going to have to come back to the market to meet its second half needs for potash, we expect Canpotex to play a role in that. And again, when we look at our projections across markets, we look at economics for growers in these markets and the healthy demand recovery that we expect. We would also see shipments growing in places like Southeast Asia and Brazil overall this year. So you put all of that together, and we do believe that we can get to a place that meets the shipment numbers that we've talked about. And certainly, in working with Canpotex, we also believe that we've got a supply chain that can deliver it and a production plan in Chris' business unit that can also get us there as well.

所以我想重申一下我之前和 Ken 發表的一些評論。我們確實看到貿易流量的變化在這方面發揮了作用。但儘管如此，即使佔全球出貨量的 5%，中國也可能需要 350 萬噸，或者在這兩個方面各有 50 萬噸，而且海運進口也必須得到滿足。我們最終相信，在下半年，中國將需要這個數量。所以我們確實看到 Canpotex 在滿足這些需求方面發揮了作用。但我要再次指出的另一點是我們在第一季度從 Canpotex 到巴西看到的創紀錄數量。事實上，我們看到加拿大的生產在其他一些主要市場（包括巴西和東南亞）中變得更加重要。因此，當我們考慮到我們確實相信中國將不得不重返市場以滿足其下半年對鉀肥的需求時，我們預計 Canpotex 將在其中發揮作用。再一次，當我們審視我們對各個市場的預測時，我們會審視這些市場種植者的經濟狀況以及我們預期的健康需求復蘇。我們還將看到今年東南亞和巴西等地的出貨量總體上有所增長。所以你把所有這些放在一起，我們相信我們可以到達一個符合我們所討論的出貨量的地方。當然，在與 Canpotex 的合作中，我們也相信我們擁有可以交付它的供應鍊和 Chris 業務部門的生產計劃，這也可以幫助我們實現目標。

Okay. So just, Joel, on the buyback, I think we are not circumscribing ourselves to the fiscal year here. Kind of I said before, we do have a strong balance sheet. We are obviously going to be monitoring the business. But if we do see value and we see the direction of travel being as we expect, we are intending to be opportunistic in the market and use the flexibility we have to capture that value.

好的。所以，喬爾，關於回購，我認為我們並沒有把自己局限於這裡的財政年度。我之前說過，我們的資產負債表確實很強勁。我們顯然會監控業務。但是，如果我們確實看到了價值，並且看到了我們預期的發展方向，那麼我們打算在市場上投機取巧，並利用我們擁有的靈活性來獲取該價值。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson。

Maybe continuing on potash. I mean, if I look at your own shipment guidance for 2023 kind of volume is up about 1 million to 1.8 million tons. Can you break out kind of the increment of that that's domestic versus offshore? I presume that at least $1 million of that was implied domestic for over the balance of the year. And if that's the case, that get your North America business back pretty close to historical kind of norms versus history, which would mean that you would need to see a disproportionate kind of offshore growth in '24 and beyond to really be the outlet for incremental production tons. And I'm just trying to get a sense of your confidence in that view and kind of where you think the market share gains from Canpotex can be durable, especially with China getting more tonnes out of the former Soviet Union and Laws.

也許繼續使用鉀肥。我的意思是，如果我看一下你們自己的 2023 年出貨量指導，這種數量增加了大約 100 萬噸到 180 萬噸。你能打破國內與離岸的增量嗎？我推測其中至少有 100 萬美元在今年餘下的時間裡隱含在國內。如果是這樣的話，那會讓你的北美業務回到非常接近歷史規範與歷史的對比，這意味著你需要在 24 世紀及以後看到不成比例的離岸增長，才能真正成為增量的出路生產噸。我只是想了解你對這種觀點的信心，以及你認為從 Canpotex 獲得的市場份額增長可以持久的地方，尤其是在中國從前蘇聯和法律中獲得更多噸數的情況下。

Adam thank you for the question. Yes. So I would just add a few comments and maybe pass it over to Mark. I mean 2021, we saw potash demand shipments on the planet of about 70 million tons. And we saw that drop to 61 million tonnes last year and now seeing a rebound, we expect to 63 million to 67 million tonnes. And we're maintaining that range, albeit a supply-constrained environment. And importantly, this is a market that's growing. We've seen 2.8% compound annual growth rates in the potash market for the last 20 years. And we expect that to continue to grow for all the reasons that we talk about growing population and the need for more food. So we're in a market that's growing. And as we look at where that growth is going to take place, yes, last year, the North American market, and when we talked about 61 million tonnes, North American market was down significantly, and that was going to the late spring, whether last year. And here we are this year. And while we have seen some incredible volatility and movements of inventory, we are now in the heart of the planting season and seeing very strong movement of volumes in North America. Application rates are up, inventories are being drawn down. And as I said in the opening remarks, we've seen a 40% increase in Q2 volumes quarter-to-date over last year. So yes, as we look at where the volumes are going, it is tilted to North America. Maybe, Mark, you want to provide some detail around those numbers.

亞當謝謝你的問題。是的。所以我只想添加一些評論，然後可能會將其傳遞給 Mark。我的意思是到 2021 年，我們看到地球上的鉀肥需求量約為 7000 萬噸。我們看到去年下降到 6100 萬噸，現在看到反彈，我們預計將下降到 6300 萬噸到 6700 萬噸。儘管供應受限，但我們仍在維持這一範圍。重要的是，這是一個不斷增長的市場。過去 20 年，鉀肥市場的複合年增長率為 2.8%。由於我們談論人口增長和對更多食物的需求的所有原因，我們預計它會繼續增長。所以我們處在一個不斷增長的市場中。當我們看到增長將發生的地方時，是的，去年，北美市場，當我們談到 6100 萬噸時，北美市場顯著下降，而且會持續到晚春，無論去年。今年我們到了。雖然我們看到了一些令人難以置信的波動和庫存變動，但我們現在正處於播種季節的核心，並且看到北美的產量變動非常強勁。應用率上升，庫存正在減少。正如我在開場白中所說，我們看到第二季度的銷量比去年同期增長了 40%。所以，是的，當我們觀察銷量的去向時，它傾向於北美。也許，馬克，你想提供一些關於這些數字的細節。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So yes, maybe just to start with North America. And again, the assumptions are laid out in our investor package for the call, but we do expect North America to be back to a relatively historical level of shipments this year. So we're estimating 9.5 million to 10.5 million tonnes of shipments into North America. So 2022 is certainly an anomalous year with what we saw in terms of inventory stocking in drawdown and the return to normal will see us back in more normal levels in North America with shipments somewhere between 1.5 and 5 million tonnes. And so the split we would see between domestic intertenational is much more typical for us than sort of 1/3, roughly domestic and 2/3 internationally moving through Canpotex. And then just on your second question about where that growth is going to come from. I mean, as Ken talked about, the last few years have been certainly a major shock to the market, supply coming out and what we've seen from a pricing and inventories perspective. But we certainly believe that the long-term demand trend is intact in these markets. And certainly, we expect to see a rebound as I've talked about already in markets like Brazil and Southeast Asia, where Canpotex and Canadian production has become increasingly important from a share perspective. So the growth in those markets over time certainly can sustain the volume growth in our business from our perspective. And there's other markets that have become opportunities for Canpotex this environment. I think a great example of that is a destination like Bangladesh where we're expecting to ship over 0.5 million tons of their Canpotex this year, which really provides incremental opportunity. So notwithstanding the incremental production from for Soviet Union that's finding its way into China. We do see growth in a number of our important markets.

是的。謝謝，肯。所以是的，也許只是從北美開始。再一次，我們的投資者一攬子電話會議中提出了這些假設，但我們確實預計今年北美的出貨量將恢復到相對歷史水平。因此，我們估計有 950 萬至 1050 萬噸的貨物運往北美。因此，2022 年肯定是反常的一年，我們看到庫存庫存減少，恢復正常將使我們在北美回到更正常的水平，出貨量在 150 萬噸到 500 萬噸之間。因此，我們將看到的國內國際之間的分裂對我們來說比 1/3 更典型，大約是國內和 2/3 國際通過 Canpotex 移動。然後就關於增長將來自何處的第二個問題。我的意思是，正如肯所說，過去幾年肯定對市場、供應的出現以及我們從定價和庫存的角度所看到的情況產生了重大衝擊。但我們當然相信，這些市場的長期需求趨勢完好無損。當然，正如我已經在巴西和東南亞等市場談到的那樣，我們預計會出現反彈，從份額的角度來看，Canpotex 和加拿大的生產在這些市場變得越來越重要。因此，從我們的角度來看，隨著時間的推移，這些市場的增長肯定可以維持我們業務量的增長。在這種環境下，還有其他市場已成為 Canpotex 的機會。我認為一個很好的例子是像孟加拉國這樣的目的地，我們預計今年將運送超過 50 萬噸的 Canpotex，這確實提供了增量機會。因此，儘管蘇聯的增量生產正在進入中國。我們確實看到了我們許多重要市場的增長。

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. This is Will Tang on for Vincent.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。這是文森特的唐威爾。

You mentioned Belarus being more active in Russia being less active in the export market than what you had previously expected. Can you talk about whether this changes how quickly you think Belarus can get back to those prewar shipment volumes and what would need to happen for them to get there? And then if you could give us a little bit more color on why Russia isn't exporting as much. That would be helpful as well.

你提到白俄羅斯在俄羅斯的出口市場比你之前預期的要活躍得多。你能談談這是否會改變你認為白俄羅斯可以多快恢復到戰前的貨運量，以及他們需要做些什麼才能到達那裡？然後，如果你能給我們更多關於為什麼俄羅斯出口不那麼多的顏色。這也會有幫助。

Right. So yes, we had started the year with a set of assumptions or beliefs about shipment side of that region and was really following last year where we saw substantive volumes of Belarus and Russia shut in with the effect of sanctions and to your question, well, Belarus and really difficulty getting access to Tidewater for seaborne exports and some of the logistical challenges with rail, albeit, as Mark mentioned earlier, we are seeing those rail movements increase or have seen them increase out of Belarus to China. So there is a bit of an outlet there. So when we started the year, we thought we said that Russian volumes, we thought would be down 15% to 30% and that Belarusian volumes would be down 40% to 60% compared to 2021 levels. If we look at export side of the region, we've adjusted those numbers so that we say, we think Belarusian volumes will be more like 25% to 40% and Russian volume is more like 25% to 35%. But importantly, if we look at just supply out of the region, while it is closer and maybe even a little bit above the top end of what we had assumed for exports out of the region, still 30% down from 2021 level. So that equates to about 9 million tons. So yes, I mean, while there is movement among those numbers, well, the reality is there's still a lot of volume that's not getting out of the country. What would it take? I mean, I think what we're seeing with Belarus for seaborne imports is that some of those volumes are going through Russian ports. But at the same time, that seems to be displacing Russian volumes out of those ports. And then finally, one of the other outlets is, of course, rail to China. We've talked about that. I think for Belarus to probably continue to increase volumes, I assume they'll be maximizing those rail volumes, but at the same time, what we believe need to see is new port capacity. And now we're talking about volumes from the region, new port capacity on the Russian coast. And of course, we've talked about, that's going to take a bit of time so that we believe exports out of the region will continue to be challenged.

正確的。所以，是的，我們在今年開始時對該地區的運輸方面提出了一系列假設或信念，並且確實在去年之後，我們看到白俄羅斯和俄羅斯的大量貨物因制裁和你的問題而關閉，好吧，白俄羅斯確實很難進入海運出口的 Tidewater 以及鐵路的一些後勤挑戰，儘管正如馬克之前提到的那樣，我們看到這些鐵路運輸增加了，或者已經看到它們增加了從白俄羅斯到中國的運輸。所以那裡有一點出路。因此，當我們今年年初時，我們認為我們說俄羅斯的銷量與 2021 年的水平相比將下降 15% 至 30%，而白俄羅斯的銷量將下降 40% 至 60%。如果我們看一下該地區的出口方面，我們已經調整了這些數字，我們認為白俄羅斯的出口量將更接近 25% 到 40%，而俄羅斯的出口量更接近 25% 到 35%。但重要的是，如果我們只看該地區外的供應，雖然它更接近甚至可能略高於我們假設的該地區外出口的上限，但仍比 2021 年的水平低 30%。所以這相當於大約 900 萬噸。所以，是的，我的意思是，雖然這些數字之間存在變動，但現實是仍有很多數量沒有流出該國。這需要什麼？我的意思是，我認為我們在白俄羅斯看到的海運進口情況是，其中一些貨物是通過俄羅斯港口進行的。但與此同時，這似乎正在取代這些港口的俄羅斯貨量。最後，其他渠道之一當然是通往中國的鐵路。我們已經談過了。我認為白俄羅斯可能會繼續增加運量，我假設他們會最大化這些鐵路運量，但與此同時，我們認為需要看到的是新的港口容量。現在我們談論的是該地區的產量，即俄羅斯海岸的新港口容量。當然，我們已經談到，這需要一些時間，因此我們相信該地區的出口將繼續受到挑戰。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

A couple of years ago, Ken, if you had thought that there'd be a 9 million ton shortage on of the former Soviet Union of potash, maybe net 5 million ton with some increases elsewhere, would you have predicted a $370 million realized price for your offshore business? Does that seem fair to you and on a going-forward basis, maybe the math has got a few strange items in there, but it seems lower than what we were expecting for the quarter. And then maybe another potash question on your domestic side. The surge of sales through customer-owned warehouses that's your product in your customers' warehouse, how is the price set there when that customer decides to pay you? And do you have negotiating or pricing power given what seems like a tightening market in the U.S. when your product is in their warehouse?

幾年前，肯，如果你認為前蘇聯的鉀肥短缺 900 萬噸，可能淨短缺 500 萬噸，其他地方有所增加，你會預測到 3.7 億美元的實際價格嗎為您的離岸業務？這對你來說是否公平，並且在未來的基礎上，也許數學中有一些奇怪的項目，但它似乎低於我們對本季度的預期。然後可能是您國內的另一個鉀肥問題。通過客戶擁有的倉庫銷售激增，即您在客戶倉庫中的產品，當客戶決定付款給您時，價格是如何設定的？當您的產品在他們的倉庫中時，鑑於美國市場似乎緊縮，您是否有談判或定價權？

Steve, thank you for the question. So I'll start with just obviously, as you've described it, the challenges on the supply side of the equation for potash. But as you put it, some anomalous effects that are leading to what we are experiencing a softening crop nutrient pricing, potash pricing in the first quarter of the year, which frankly, domestically is a rarity, something that we've really never seen. But that's just one of the anomalous observation. If we look at 2022, and obviously, this terrible event, which we all want to come to an end and stability back in the markets and the challenges that, that created for some of the big potash importers and users. The rush to get hands on inventory and the inventory build that took place and obviously, despite the price spike that followed that. I mean we saw that inventory built in there some weather-related effects there. So that when we headed into the fall, the the world started on a large inventory drawdown, watching prices soften. And that inventory draw down one of the most dramatic again, that we've ever seen carried through the first quarter of this year as farmers, as growers, and we saw that certainly in our North American markets. exercise really cautious buying behavior. We talked about it just-in-time buying and really only stepping into the market now when they actually have to as all of these big volumes go to ground. And so cautious by May or sorry. Wanting to shore up inventory with supply concerns in 2022, movements in price and then inventory drawdown coming into 2023 and the associated movement in price. And here we are, the backdrop for ag fundamentals remain strong. Grower affordability is good, given the reduction in crop nutrient prices. And so here we are with inventories clearing and prices stabilizing and volumes moving. So Steve, how this all translates into price and market volatility, what we would say is that we've now approached sort of a form of stability and what we would call sort of mid-cycle pricing for potash, and that's what we've assumed for the balance of the year. As it relates to these supply shortages, we're watching that incredibly closely. It's going to and has impacted how we think about increasing our own volumes. It will continue to do that as we seek to meet the needs of our own customers. But yes, some of the supply challenges remain, and we'll see how that plays out over the balance of the year. Maybe, Mark, if you want to provide some thoughts on pricing with our customers in the domestic market.

史蒂夫，謝謝你的提問。因此，正如您所描述的那樣，我將從顯然開始，鉀肥等式供應方面的挑戰。但正如你所說，一些異常影響導致我們正在經歷今年第一季度作物養分價格、鉀肥價格走軟，坦率地說，這在國內是罕見的，這是我們從未見過的。但這只是異常觀察之一。如果我們看看 2022 年，很明顯，我們都希望這一可怕的事件結束，市場恢復穩定，並為一些大型鉀肥進口商和用戶帶來挑戰。儘管隨後價格飆升，但顯然仍急於獲得庫存和庫存增加。我的意思是我們看到那裡建立的庫存有一些與天氣相關的影響。因此，當我們進入秋季時，世界開始大量減少庫存，眼睜睜地看著價格走軟。庫存再次下降，這是我們作為農民和種植者在今年第一季度看到的最引人注目的庫存，我們在北美市場也看到了這一點。行使真正謹慎的購買行為。我們談到了及時購買，實際上只是在他們真正必須進入市場時才進入市場，因為所有這些大交易量都已落地。在梅之前如此謹慎或抱歉。希望通過 2022 年的供應擔憂、價格變動和 2023 年的庫存縮減以及相關的價格變動來支撐庫存。在這裡，農業基本面的背景依然強勁。考慮到作物養分價格的下降，種植者的承受能力良好。因此，我們現在庫存清算、價格穩定和交易量移動。所以史蒂夫，這一切如何轉化為價格和市場波動，我們要說的是，我們現在已經接近某種形式的穩定，我們稱之為鉀肥的中期定價，這就是我們所擁有的假設為今年的餘額。由於它與這些供應短缺有關，我們正在密切關注這一點。它將會並且已經影響了我們如何考慮增加我們自己的數量。它將繼續這樣做，因為我們尋求滿足我們自己客戶的需求。但是，是的，一些供應挑戰仍然存在，我們將看到它在今年剩餘時間裡的表現如何。也許，馬克，如果你想就國內市場的客戶定價提供一些想法。

Sure. Steve. So yes, I think this is a relatively simple answer overall. I think first and foremost, we continue to contend that we've got, I think, the best build the most ideally positioned in the most robust distribution network in North America for potash, and the majority of those assets are owned assets. As I mentioned, I was just out at our Hamon Indiana terminal last week, which has about 80,000 tonnes of storage. And so our primary mechanism for moving product into the North American market is through our own warehouse and distribution system. From an efficiency perspective, we do have agreements with some customers. Nutrien Ag Solutions is one of those customers as well as our other major customers. And that's really efficiency from a logistics standpoint, so that we're not spending on necessary unnecessary dollars where they're not needed on distribution infrastructure and taking advantage of the assets that exist in market. And from a pricing standpoint, actually, things have been relatively straightforward as we've talked about in the commentary today. We saw product move very quickly and a lot of hand to mouth buying. So what was being sold was largely going directly to ground and moving through the channel quite quickly. And what we found from a commercial perspective generally is that as we've seen the supply-demand shortages emerge at inland distribution points, we've been tracking those prices higher as they emerge throughout the spring season.

當然。史蒂夫。所以是的，我認為這是一個總體上相對簡單的答案。我認為首先也是最重要的是，我們繼續爭辯說，我認為，我們擁有最好的，在北美最強大的鉀肥分銷網絡中建立最理想的定位，並且這些資產中的大部分是自有資產。正如我所提到的，上週我剛剛在我們的 Hamon Indiana 碼頭外出，那裡有大約 80,000 噸的存儲空間。因此，我們將產品轉移到北美市場的主要機制是通過我們自己的倉庫和配送系統。從效率的角度來看，我們確實與一些客戶有協議。 Nutrien Ag Solutions 是這些客戶之一，也是我們的其他主要客戶。從物流的角度來看，這確實是一種效率，因此我們不會在分銷基礎設施和利用市場上現有資產不需要的地方花費不必要的資金。實際上，從定價的角度來看，正如我們在今天的評論中所討論的那樣，事情相對簡單。我們看到產品移動非常快，大量購買。因此，出售的商品主要是直接落地並迅速通過渠道。從商業角度來看，我們通常發現，由於我們已經看到內陸配送點出現供需短缺，因此我們一直在跟踪這些價格，因為它們在整個春季出現。

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson from Mizuho.

你的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Christopher Parkinson。

Great. Just from a strategic perspective, is there any remaining apprehension to walking away from the contract structure of the Indian and Chinese markets? It seems your exposures in other markets, Southeast Asia, Brazil, from a spot perspective is are continuously growing, and it seems like that affects the fluidity of the marketplace. So just what's in terms of how you've been thinking about the last several decades versus the future, can you just walk us through the kind of what you see as the merit of the current market dynamics?

偉大的。單從戰略上看，脫離印度和中國市場的合同結構，是否還有後顧之憂？從現貨的角度來看，你在其他市場、東南亞、巴西的風險似乎在不斷增長，這似乎影響了市場的流動性。那麼，就您如何看待過去幾十年與未來而言，您能給我們介紹一下您認為當前市場動態的優點嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Chris. And I would say that as we look at our portfolio of sales over 40 countries around the world, and importantly, agriculture markets that we see growing and what are there. I mean we've talked about Brazil, but it's certainly India. It's certainly Southeast Asia, and it's certainly China. And right now, the Canadian potash is an important supplier into all these regions. We have worked hard in these regions to establish a really, really enviable customer base, and we worked hard over the last 40 years to do that. So we have had success in these growing markets of China, India, Southeast Asia. Of course, Brazil, when we talk about offshore markets, and that we continue to believe that, that customer base will be important to us as we grow our volumes.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。我想說的是，當我們審視我們在全球 40 多個國家/地區的銷售組合時，重要的是，我們看到不斷增長的農業市場以及那裡的市場。我的意思是我們已經談到了巴西，但肯定是印度。肯定是東南亞，肯定是中國。而現在，加拿大鉀肥是所有這些地區的重要供應商。我們在這些地區努力工作，以建立一個真正非常令人羨慕的客戶群，我們在過去 40 年裡一直努力做到這一點。所以我們在中國、印度、東南亞這些不斷增長的市場取得了成功。當然，巴西，當我們談論離岸市場時，我們仍然相信，隨著我們的銷量增長，客戶群對我們很重要。

Your next question comes from the line of Joshua Spector from UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Joshua Spector。

This is Lucas Beaumont on for Josh. I just wanted to follow up on the mid-cycle expectations that you're seeing pricing is basically now baked into the updated guidance. So could you just clarify for us exactly what your expectations are, either directly or as a range in terms of pricing for potash, ammonia, urea, phosphates and your energy cost assumptions.

這是 Josh 的 Lucas Beaumont。我只是想跟進您所看到的中期週期預期，定價現在基本上已融入更新的指南中。那麼，您能否直接或作為鉀肥、氨、尿素、磷酸鹽的定價範圍以及您的能源成本假設，為我們明確說明您的期望是什麼？

Yes, we can provide those some ranges, Lucas. And yes, I hand it over to Mark to talk about those specifics.

是的，我們可以提供一些範圍，盧卡斯。是的，我將其交給 Mark 來討論這些細節。

Yes, Lucas. So I think with respect to mid-cycle prices, as Ken said, when we came out at last year's Investor Day and talked about the structural shift that we expected from all the factors that I mentioned today, our expectation was that generally on average across the fertilizer price complex that we would see prices shift by about $50 across all the nutrients probably specifics in every product line is beyond the scope of today's discussion. But I think what we're seeing generally is that as prices are stabilizing, as Ken has talked about, and that process continues for both nitrogen and potash domestically and internationally. Currently, prices are sitting, give or take, probably within $20 or $30 of those assumptions that we made in terms of what new mid-cycle prices would look like. So when we look across the fertilizer complex and we see things stabilizing today, that is what's inherent in our guidance, as Pedro and Ken described. And we also think that's a good way to think about the business on a run rate going forward in terms of where we'll see mid-cycle prices in the future.

是的，盧卡斯。所以我認為關於週期中期的價格，正如 Ken 所說，當我們在去年的投資者日談到我們從我今天提到的所有因素中預期的結構性轉變時，我們的預期是總體平均化肥價格綜合體，我們會看到每個產品線中所有營養素的價格可能變化約 50 美元，這超出了今天的討論範圍。但我認為我們總體上看到的是，正如 Ken 所說，隨著價格趨於穩定，國內和國際的氮肥和鉀肥的這一過程仍在繼續。目前，價格穩定、變動或變動，可能與我們根據新的中期週期價格做出的假設相差 20 美元或 30 美元。因此，正如佩德羅和肯所描述的那樣，當我們審視化肥綜合體並看到今天情況趨於穩定時，這就是我們指導中固有的內容。我們還認為，根據未來我們將在何處看到中期週期價格，這是考慮未來運行率的業務的好方法。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Andrew Wong。

So with pricing now near what you would consider as mid-cycle levels, has there been any change in your view on capital allocation and investing in more capacity, would you consider slowing down the potash ramp a little bit more, maybe until demand reengages, and maybe would it make sense to use some of that capital if you do delay some of those plans for buybacks given where your shares are today?

因此，現在定價接近您認為的周期中期水平，您對資本配置和投資更多產能的看法是否有任何變化，您是否會考慮稍微放慢鉀肥的增長速度，也許直到需求重新出現，如果你確實推遲了一些回購計劃，考慮到你今天的股票，那麼使用部分資金是否有意義？

Yes, thank you. The short answer to your question is yes, we would. Yes, we would consider slowing down. We're really as we talked about earlier this year, watching the market, we did delay our ramp up. We talked about that earlier this year, 25 million to 26 million, 18 million tons. And importantly, just continuing to watch the market and the supply and demand dynamics. The reality is, again, that we are in a market that's growing, and we believe that, that's going to carry on for the absolute foreseeable future. It's sort of 2.5% to 3% annual growth rates in that new subsupplies going to be required to meet that growing demand. If we look at then the supply side challenge that challenges that continue to persist. And while, yes, we have seen some additional volume get out of Russia and Belarus. The reality is, again, 30% down from 2021 levels. I mean, these are big numbers, 9 million tons. And we're watching how those tons find their way back into the market and the pace at which they'll do that, talking to our customers on a daily basis about what their needs are in this environment and then planning our capital accordingly as it relates to ramping up potash. These investments are really quite granular. Dozens of projects across 4 mines. We have made some investments that are going to take our capacity up to around 15.5 million tonnes by the start of next year. We've demonstrated the value of that flexible approach. We demonstrated that in '21 and 2022 and the value associated with preserving some additional capacity. But when we're doing that math, yes, Andrew, to you the short answer to your question is, if we see that the market is not there, then we'll pace our capital accordingly. And yes, we'll certainly, as Pedro mentioned, always look opportunistically at buying back our own shares.

是的，謝謝。對你的問題的簡短回答是肯定的，我們會的。是的，我們會考慮放慢速度。正如我們今年早些時候談到的那樣，我們真的在觀察市場，我們確實推遲了我們的增長。我們今年早些時候談到了 2500 萬到 2600 萬，1800 萬噸。重要的是，繼續關注市場和供需動態。現實再次表明，我們所處的市場正在增長，我們相信，在絕對可預見的未來，這種情況將會持續下去。需要新的次級供應來滿足不斷增長的需求，年增長率約為 2.5% 至 3%。如果我們看一下供應方面的挑戰，那麼挑戰將繼續存在。同時，是的，我們已經看到一些額外的數量從俄羅斯和白俄羅斯流出。現實再次比 2021 年的水平下降了 30%。我的意思是，這些都是很大的數字，900 萬噸。我們正在觀察這些噸如何重新進入市場以及他們這樣做的速度，每天與我們的客戶討論他們在這種環境下的需求，然後相應地規劃我們的資本與增加鉀肥有關。這些投資確實非常精細。 4 個礦區的數十個項目。我們已經進行了一些投資，這些投資將使我們的產能在明年年初達到約 1550 萬噸。我們已經證明了這種靈活方法的價值。我們在 21 年和 2022 年證明了這一點以及與保留一些額外容量相關的價值。但是當我們做那個數學時，是的，安德魯，對你的問題的簡短回答是，如果我們看到市場不存在，那麼我們將相應地調整我們的資本。是的，正如 Pedro 提到的那樣，我們肯定會始終投機地回購我們自己的股票。

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Garchitorena from Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Richard Garchitorena。

Great. Just wanted to ask a question on cash costs. So we saw an uptick in the first quarter across potash and nitrogen. I think Pedro talked about bringing some maintenance forward in the quarter. So maybe can you talk about how much of that increase in costs in the first quarter was attributed to that? And then just on the nitrogen side, ammonia costs went up in the quarter. but we are seeing ammonia coming down and natural gas should be coming down in the second half. So you could talk about sort of maybe trends on the cash cost and nitrogen side as well.

偉大的。只是想問一個關於現金成本的問題。因此，我們在第一季度看到了鉀肥和氮肥的上漲。我認為 Pedro 談到了在本季度進行一些維護工作。那麼也許你能談談第一季度成本增加有多少歸因於此？然後在氮氣方面，本季度氨成本上升。但我們看到氨氣下降，天然氣應該在下半年下降。所以你也可以談談現金成本和氮方面的趨勢。

Yes, absolutely, Richard. And thank you for the question. Yes, there's a number of moving parts there as it relates to natural gas costs in nitrogen. We're obviously automating our mines and starting to enjoy some of the benefits of those investments in potash and the biggest one probably we can talk about is volume and the volume impacts on cash costs in the quarter. But I'll hand it over to Chris Reynolds to talk about that, our President of our potash business to talk about cash costs in potash. And then over to Trevor Williams, our President of nitrogen phosphate to talk about nitrogen.

是的，當然，理查德。謝謝你的問題。是的，那裡有許多活動部件，因為它與氮氣中的天然氣成本有關。我們顯然正在使我們的礦山自動化，並開始享受鉀肥投資的一些好處，而我們可以談論的最大的一個可能是數量和數量對本季度現金成本的影響。但我會把它交給克里斯雷諾茲來談談，我們的鉀肥業務總裁來談談鉀肥的現金成本。然後請我們的磷酸氮總裁 Trevor Williams 談談氮。

Richard, thanks for the question. So as we look at full year, our controllable cost of product manufactured in potash, we expect that to be fairly similar, in fact, to what we saw in 2022. Now yes, in Q1, as Pedro had mentioned, we did have some increased maintenance. We pulled some of that as forward to be ready for the surge in demand we're expecting in the second half. But as we look at that controllable costs still amongst the lowest cost in North America and certainly one of the lowest cost across the industry. So we're still feeling good about that position today.

理查德，謝謝你的提問。因此，當我們回顧全年時，我們用鉀肥生產的產品的可控成本，我們預計這實際上與我們在 2022 年看到的情況非常相似。現在是的，正如 Pedro 提到的那樣，在第一季度，我們確實有一些增加維護。我們將其中的一部分提前準備好迎接下半年預期的需求激增。但正如我們所看到的那樣，可控成本仍然是北美成本最低的，當然也是整個行業成本最低的之一。所以我們今天仍然對這個職位感覺良好。

Yes. And thank you, Richard. And very similar on the nitrogen side. Our volumes are down a little bit, primarily driven from the Turniadside. We did have some increased maintenance cost as we had a few reliability issues but really because we've had some reduced volumes because of the curtailments. But really, as we look towards the remainder of the fleet and the majority of the fleet, we look to get back towards what we would expect in terms of our cash cost for 2023.

是的。謝謝你，理查德。在氮氣方面非常相似。我們的銷量略有下降，主要來自 Turniadside。我們確實有一些增加的維護成本，因為我們有一些可靠性問題，但實際上是因為我們已經因為削減而減少了一些數量。但實際上，當我們著眼於機隊的其餘部分和機隊的大部分時，我們希望回到我們對 2023 年現金成本的預期。

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Theurer from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

Yes. Just wanted to go back a little bit on the supply/demand. And obviously, you've shown us in the graph and you've highlighted the growth polenta over the last couple of years and how you expect this to kind of come back. But as it seems in the first quarter, demand was clearly softer than what you anticipated. And I think you've talked about it that there is a year-over-year improvement of like 40%. But maybe help us understand, put that in a first half context versus first half last year and maybe also versus 2021, just to kind of get a little bit of a better feel if the need for potash is really what you think it should be and what the mismatch is? That would be like my first question. I have a quick follow-up after that.

是的。只是想回顧一下供應/需求。很明顯，你已經在圖表中向我們展示了你已經強調了過去幾年玉米粥的增長以及你如何期望這種情況會回來。但在第一季度看來，需求明顯比您預期的要疲軟。我想你已經談到了 40% 的同比增長。但也許可以幫助我們理解，將其放在上半年與去年上半年以及與 2021 年的對比中，只是為了更好地了解鉀肥的需求是否真的如您所想的那樣，並且不匹配是什麼？這就像我的第一個問題。在那之後我有一個快速的跟進。

Right. Thank you for the question, Ben. And yes, I think what we would say for the first quarter was not necessarily demand was down, but that inventories were being drawn down and this just-in-time buying behavior so that when we look on an annual basis for potash, we continue to say 63 million to 67 million tonnes. We haven't changed those numbers continues to be a supply-constrained market, continues to be the backdrop of growing demand over time. But Jason Newton, our Chief Economist, I will hand it over to you, maybe to talk about some of those details.

正確的。謝謝你的問題，本。是的，我認為我們對第一季度的看法不一定是需求下降，而是庫存正在減少以及這種及時購買行為，因此當我們按年度查看鉀肥時，我們繼續可以說是 6300 萬噸到 6700 萬噸。我們沒有改變這些數字仍然是一個供應受限的市場，隨著時間的推移繼續成為需求增長的背景。但是我們的首席經濟學家傑森牛頓，我會把它交給你，也許可以談談其中的一些細節。

Sure. Ben, yes, if we look globally, so I guess just as Ken mentioned the start, we've maintained our 63 million to 67 million tonne shipment range for the year. And as we look around at various markets, there's a bit of a split between standard grade and granular markets and that we have seen really strong demand in Brazil and strong shipments in North America as well from a granular perspective, but we know the contracts were delayed, and particularly China is delayed in terms of contracts, which has an impact on our sales, but we have seen strong shipments going into those markets, part by rail from Russia and Belarus. And so as we look through the various markets, there's a few minor shifts market to market. But overall, demand has been pretty much as expected, and I'd say even probably closer to the higher end in some of the granular grade markets.

當然。本，是的，如果我們放眼全球，所以我想就像肯提到的開始一樣，我們今年的出貨量保持在 6300 萬至 6700 萬噸之間。當我們環顧各個市場時，標準等級和顆粒市場之間存在一些分歧，從顆粒的角度來看，我們看到巴西的需求非常強勁，北美的出貨量也很強勁，但我們知道合同是延遲，特別是中國在合同方面的延遲，這對我們的銷售產生了影響，但我們已經看到大量貨物進入這些市場，部分來自俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的鐵路。因此，當我們審視各個市場時，市場之間會發生一些細微的變化。但總的來說，需求與預期相當，我想說在一些顆粒級市場甚至可能更接近高端。

Your next question comes from the line of Martin Pradier from Veritas Investment Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Veritas Investment Research 的 Martin Pradier。

Yes, I hear all about this shortage that is in the supply chain in North America. And I was wondering what is the effect in price? Are you seeing the prices increase now because there are no inventory and people have to buy right away.

是的，我聽說過北美供應鏈中的這種短缺。我想知道價格的影響是什麼？您是否看到現在價格上漲，因為沒有庫存，人們必須立即購買。

Yes. Maybe yes, the short answer, Martin, is yes, we are seeing some of those impacts on price. I'll just hand it over to Jeff Tarsi to talk about some of those observations that we're seeing, certainly in our retail business through the channel and then over to Mark to talk about the impact on catnutrient pricing.

是的。也許是的，簡短的回答，馬丁，是的，我們看到了其中一些對價格的影響。我將把它交給 Jeff Tarsi 來談談我們看到的一些觀察結果，當然是通過渠道在我們的零售業務中，然後交給 Mark 來談談對營養素定價的影響。

Yes, Ken, thanks. I think we have seen, as Ken spoke to, if I look at the first quarter, we were basically 6% off on volume for the quarter. And so very steady from that standpoint. We have seen a surge in the second quarter on volume across our fertilizer portfolio. And look is, again, I think it speaks from a Nutranext solutions perspective, it speaks to our supply chain and investments we've made across our supply chain in order to get product moved in a lot of cases on a just-in-time basis from that standpoint. We have seen prices stabilize as we've gotten into the spring. Probably more importantly, we've seen margins stabilize and normalize as we've gotten into the quarter as well. And look, we spoke to earlier in the year, what our sole testing was alluding to and that there were some deficiencies in about 40% of our tests around P&K. And we certainly see our growers responding today to that. Rates are good. And so the demand has been exceptionally strong into the second quarter. We expect that to continue with right in the middle right now of our planning season. And so we continue to see a pull on demand, and we're working hand to mouth in some of those situations today from an inventory perspective. Mark, I might pass it over to you as well.

是的，肯，謝謝。我想我們已經看到，正如肯所說，如果我看第一季度，我們本季度的銷量基本上下降了 6%。從這個角度來看非常穩定。我們在第二季度看到我們化肥產品組合的銷量激增。再一次，我認為它是從 Nutranext 解決方案的角度來看的，它涉及我們的供應鍊和我們在整個供應鏈中所做的投資，以便在很多情況下及時移動產品從那個角度出發。隨著我們進入春季，我們已經看到價格趨於穩定。可能更重要的是，隨著我們進入本季度，我們也看到利潤率穩定並正常化。看，我們在今年早些時候談過，我們唯一的測試暗示了什麼，我們圍繞 P&K 的大約 40% 的測試存在一些缺陷。我們當然看到我們的種植者今天對此做出了回應。價格不錯。因此，第二季度的需求異常強勁。我們希望在我們的計劃季節的中期繼續這種情況。因此，我們繼續看到需求的拉動，從庫存的角度來看，我們今天在其中一些情況下正在努力工作。馬克，我也可以把它傳給你。

Sure. Thanks, Jeff. So yes, as Jeff said, we're seeing things move very quickly right now. And after a first quarter where as we've mentioned, there was relatively low field activity in North America due to weather and the just-in-time buying. We really have seen things kick off at a frantic pace as planting activity started in April. And so again, just to look at benchmark prices that are published as an example, if we look back to some of the lower values we saw in Q1, sort of in the $370 per tonne range at NOLA for potash. We've seen firming of approximately $40 and seeing really good uptake in those values. And if we look at inland terminals or inland distribution points that really have been challenged logistically by the just-in-time purchasing behavior. We've seen values increase in excess of that and in some cases, substantially. And I think when we go back to talking about the North American agricultural supply chain, one of the things that we talked about in February was that if we were to see this just-in-time purchasing behavior persists that because of the significant needs for crop nutrients and how fast the crop can get planted, we would expect to see some logistical premiums emerge because of the supply chain correction. So I think we have seen that and certainly have seen potash prices firm in season and have sought to sell into that strength to the extent possible and support our customers. And I think again, this is something that whether it's in the Nutrient ag solutions business that Jeff talked about or in distribution assets that we have does set us apart. And really, we've been responding quickly to meet those needs and capture those higher price premium in our markets.

當然。謝謝，傑夫。所以是的，正如傑夫所說，我們現在看到事情進展得非常快。正如我們所提到的，在第一季度之後，由於天氣和及時購買，北美的現場活動相對較少。隨著四月份種植活動的開始，我們確實看到事情以瘋狂的速度開始。再一次，以公佈的基準價格為例，如果我們回顧一下我們在第一季度看到的一些較低的價格，鉀肥在 NOLA 的每噸 370 美元範圍內。我們已經看到大約 40 美元的堅挺，並且看到這些價值的吸收非常好。如果我們看看內陸終端或內陸配送點，它們確實在物流上受到及時採購行為的挑戰。我們已經看到價值的增長超過了這一點，在某些情況下甚至大幅增長。我認為，當我們回到談論北美農業供應鏈時，我們在 2 月份談到的其中一件事是，如果我們看到這種及時購買行為持續存在，因為對作物養分和作物種植的速度，我們預計由於供應鏈調整會出現一些物流溢價。因此，我認為我們已經看到，並且肯定已經看到鉀肥價格在季節性堅挺，並試圖盡可能地利用這種優勢來支持我們的客戶。我再次認為，無論是 Jeff 談到的 Nutrient ag 解決方案業務，還是我們擁有的分銷資產，這確實讓我們與眾不同。事實上，我們一直在快速響應以滿足這些需求並在我們的市場中獲得更高的溢價。

Your next question comes from the line of Edlain Rodriguez from Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Edlain Rodriguez。

A quick question on cap prices. I mean, they have come down a little bit. And as a result, farmers income is likely going to be down. I understand core prices are still higher than historical averages, but do you think the lower prices could have an impact on farmers' psychology and willingness to pay higher fertilizer prices?

關於上限價格的快速問題。我的意思是，他們已經下降了一點。結果，農民的收入可能會下降。我知道核心價格仍然高於歷史平均水平，但您認為較低的價格會對農民的心理和支付更高化肥價格的意願產生影響嗎？

Thanks for the question, Edlain. Maybe I'll pass it over to Jeff Tarsi just to talk about psychology among farmers. I think the reality is that given when the way crop nutrient prices have softened relative to what we're seeing with Ag commodities. And again, the likes of corn, soybean, wheat still 15% above the 10-year average, that we are seeing strong application rates domestically in the planting season here. But Jeff, over to you.

謝謝你的問題，埃德蘭。也許我會把它交給 Jeff Tarsi 來談談農民的心理。我認為現實情況是，當作物養分價格相對於我們在農產品上看到的價格走軟時。同樣，玉米、大豆、小麥等作物仍比 10 年平均水平高出 15%，我們在這裡的播種季節看到國內的強勁施用率。但是傑夫，交給你了。

Yes, Ken, thanks. And no, we certainly don't see any indication of that. You have to remember as well that a lot of growers have contracted prices when they enjoyed a really strong back half of the year last year. So you saw probably more forward contracting going in across the commodity pricing. But as we sit here to date, again, we see growers using the best hybrids, the best trade packages. Again, we talked about our fertility rates in the second quarter, up 40% right now year-over-year. And we anticipate that they're, again, want to try to maximize their yields from that standpoint. I've said this many times before these are science-based decisions to date. And so these growers are making their decisions based off of what these crops need to maximize yields going forward, and that's the best chance to optimize ROI. I think we'll see continued strong input demand as we go through the rest of the spring and into the summer.

是的，肯，謝謝。不，我們當然看不到任何跡象。你還必須記住，許多種植者在去年下半年表現非常強勁的時候已經收縮了價格。因此，您可能會看到更多的遠期合約涉及商品定價。但是當我們坐在這里約會時，我們再次看到種植者使用最好的雜交品種，最好的貿易組合。同樣，我們談到了第二季度的生育率，現在同比增長 40%。我們預計，從這個角度來看，他們再次希望嘗試最大化他們的收益。在這些都是迄今為止基於科學的決定之前，我已經說過很多次了。因此，這些種植者根據這些作物需要什麼來最大限度地提高未來的產量來做出決定，這是優化投資回報率的最佳機會。我認為，隨著春季剩餘時間和夏季的到來，我們將看到持續強勁的投入需求。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。