Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Nutrien 2022 Q4 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on February 16, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jeff Holzman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

女士們先生們，早上好，歡迎來到 Nutrien 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）此通話記錄於東部時間 2023 年 2 月 16 日上午 10:00。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Holzman 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's Fourth Quarter 2022 Conference Call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain material assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our quarterly reports to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form filed with Canadian and U.S. Securities Commission.

謝謝你，運營商。早上好，歡迎來到 Nutrien 2022 年第四季度電話會議。在我們進行此次電話會議時，我們就未來預期、計劃和前景所做的各種聲明都包含前瞻性信息。作出這些結論和預測時應用了某些重大假設。因此，實際結果可能與我們前瞻性信息中包含的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的更多信息包含在我們提交給股東的季度報告以及我們向加拿大和美國證券委員會提交的最新年度報告、MD&A 和年度信息表中。

I will now turn the call over to Kenneth Seitz, President and CEO; and Pedro Farah, our CFO, for opening comments before we take your questions.

我現在將電話轉交給總裁兼首席執行官肯尼斯·塞茨 (Kenneth Seitz)；以及我們的首席財務官 Pedro Farah，感謝他們在我們回答您的問題之前發表評論。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us as we recap our full year results and discuss the outlook for our business going forward. 2022 was an unprecedented year on many fronts. Geopolitical events, most notably the war between Russia and Ukraine contributed to significant supply disruptions across agriculture, energy and fertilizer markets. The supply shocks were most pronounced for global fertilizer markets leading to higher prices, increased volatility and major shifts in buying patterns throughout the year.

早上好，感謝您加入我們，回顧我們的全年業績並討論我們未來的業務前景。 2022 年在許多方面都是前所未有的一年。地緣政治事件，尤其是俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的戰爭，導致農業、能源和化肥市場的供應嚴重中斷。全球化肥市場的供應衝擊最為明顯，導致全年價格上漲、波動加劇以及購買模式發生重大轉變。

Nutrien delivered record earnings and cash flow in this environment due to the advantages of our world-class production, distribution and retail network. We invested $2.9 billion to sustain our assets and grow our business while returning $5.6 billion in capital to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. We progressed our sustainability priorities and most importantly, continue to achieve industry-leading safety performance across our business.

由於我們世界一流的生產、分銷和零售網絡的優勢，Nutrien 在這種環境下實現了創紀錄的收益和現金流。我們投資了 29 億美元來維持我們的資產和發展我們的業務，同時通過股票回購和股息向我們的股東返還 56 億美元的資本。我們推進了可持續發展優先事項，最重要的是，繼續在我們的業務中實現行業領先的安全績效。

Nutrien Ag Solutions had another very strong year, generating adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion. This result was driven by higher sales and gross margins across nearly all product categories and regions where we operate. The growth relative earnings stability provided by our retail business is an advantage that differentiates Nutrien from our fertilizer peers. We completed 21 retail acquisitions in our core geographies with a focus on expanding our network in Brazil. This region is one of the fastest-growing agricultural markets in the world, and we see further opportunity to expand our network and provide whole acre solutions to Brazilian growers.

Nutrien Ag Solutions 又是一個非常強勁的一年，調整後的 EBITDA 為 23 億美元。這一結果是由我們經營的幾乎所有產品類別和地區的更高銷售額和毛利率推動的。我們的零售業務提供的增長相對收益穩定性是 Nutrien 與化肥同行區別開來的一個優勢。我們在核心地區完成了 21 項零售收購，重點是擴大我們在巴西的網絡。該地區是世界上增長最快的農業市場之一，我們看到了進一步擴大我們的網絡並為巴西種植者提供整畝解決方案的機會。

We made significant progress on our sustainable agriculture initiatives that are a key component of meeting the 2030 commitments and are feeding the future plan. We tripled the acreage enrolled in our carbon pilot program compared to 2021 and are seeing excellent engagement from growers and strategic partners across the agriculture value chain.

我們在可持續農業倡議方面取得了重大進展，這些倡議是實現 2030 年承諾的關鍵組成部分，並正在為未來計劃提供支持。與 2021 年相比，我們參與碳試點計劃的面積增加了兩倍，並且看到了整個農業價值鏈中種植者和戰略合作夥伴的出色參與。

Turning to Potash. We generated adjusted EBITDA of nearly $6 billion in 2022, highlighting the importance of having low-cost operations that are backed by a reliable supply chain. In the first half, we sold record offshore volumes in response to increased demand from our customers and achieved higher realized selling prices. As we anticipated, potash volumes in the fourth quarter were down from the prior year as buyers in North America and Brazil limited purchases and drew down inventory. We adjusted our production plans accordingly and pulled forward in sub-maintenance activities during this downtime, preserving the flexibility to quickly ramp up production when stronger demand reemerges.

轉向鉀肥。我們在 2022 年產生了近 60 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，凸顯了擁有可靠供應鏈支持的低成本運營的重要性。上半年，為了應對客戶需求的增加，我們的離岸銷量創下歷史新高，並實現了更高的實際售價。正如我們預期的那樣，由於北美和巴西的買家限制採購併減少庫存，第四季度的鉀肥銷量低於去年同期。我們相應地調整了我們的生產計劃，並在此停機期間提前進行了次級維護活動，從而保留了在需求再次出現時快速提高產量的靈活性。

Our nitrogen earnings were supported by higher global benchmark prices and the advantaged cost position of our assets. Nitrogen sales volumes in the fourth quarter were impacted by lower production volumes and cautious buying from both fertilizer and industrial customers. The majority of the production losses were related to Trinidad gas curtailments and extreme cold weather events that caused outages at our North American plants. We completed emissions abatement projects at 3 nitrogen sites that represent a major step towards meeting our goal to reduce CO2 equivalent emissions by 1 million tonnes by the end of 2023.

我們的氮收益受到更高的全球基準價格和我們資產的優勢成本地位的支持。第四季度的氮氣銷量受到產量下降以及化肥和工業客戶謹慎購買的影響。大部分生產損失與特立尼達天然氣削減和極端寒冷天氣事件有關，這些事件導致我們的北美工廠停產。我們在 3 個氮工廠完成了減排項目，這是朝著實現我們到 2023 年底減少 100 萬噸二氧化碳當量排放的目標邁出的重要一步。

In phosphate, we delivered higher earnings due to increased selling prices, in particular for our high-value feed and industrial products, which more than offset a reduction in sales volumes. The structural shifts in the market over the past year highlighted the importance of being nimble and adaptable in an uncertain global environment. We will take the learnings from 2022 as we advance our plans for 2023 and beyond.

在磷酸鹽方面，由於銷售價格上漲，特別是我們的高價值飼料和工業產品，我們實現了更高的收益，這大大抵消了銷量的下降。過去一年市場的結構性轉變凸顯了在不確定的全球環境中保持敏捷和適應性的重要性。我們將吸取 2022 年的經驗教訓，推進 2023 年及以後的計劃。

Now turning to the outlook. The global grain stock-to-use ratio is at its lowest point in more than 25 years, and we expect it will take multiple cropping cycles to restore stocks to more adequate levels. Crop commodity prices are trading well above historical average levels, and we anticipate increased planted acreage and crop input demand in North America and Brazil. In potash sanctions on Belarus and restrictions on Russia have been in place for about 1 year. And over that time, the volume of potash exported has not materially improved.

現在轉向前景。全球糧食庫存消費比處於 25 年多以來的最低點，我們預計需要多個種植週期才能將庫存恢復到更充足的水平。作物商品價格遠高於歷史平均水平，我們預計北美和巴西的種植面積和作物投入需求將增加。在鉀肥方面，對白俄羅斯的製裁和對俄羅斯的限制已經實施了大約 1 年。而在那段時間裡，鉀肥的出口量並沒有實質性的改善。

Belarus supply, in particular, remains constrained with shipments in recent months reported to be down more than 50% from the prior year. This illustrates the importance of having reliable access to tide water ports and the challenges associated with reworking distribution channels for a bulk commodity like potash. Further, we continue to believe projects that were under development in Russia and Belarus will be delayed. These expansions comprised about 60% of the projected supply entering the market over the next 5 years outside of our own increases. We are forecasting global potash shipments between 63 million to 67 million tonnes in 2023, which is still well below our unconstrained demand estimate of approximately 70 million tonnes.

尤其是白俄羅斯的供應仍然受到限制，據報導最近幾個月的出貨量比上一年下降了 50% 以上。這說明了可靠進入潮汐水港的重要性，以及與重新設計鉀肥等大宗商品的分銷渠道相關的挑戰。此外，我們仍然認為俄羅斯和白俄羅斯正在開發的項目將被推遲。這些擴張約佔未來 5 年進入市場的預計供應量的 60%，不包括我們自己的增加量。我們預測 2023 年全球鉀肥出貨量在 6300 萬噸至 6700 萬噸之間，仍遠低於我們約 7000 萬噸的無限制需求估計。

In North America, we believe retail potash inventories are down 15% to 20% compared to the prior year, following a healthy fall application season and limited restocking. This estimate is based on the view of Nutrien Ag Solution inventories and our assessment of broader retail channel inventories. We had a good response to our winter fill program that was released in January, although we are still seeing some level of buyer caution. We expect an additional wave of buying to meet demand for the spring season, and this plays to the strength of Nutrien's leading production and distribution network in North America.

在北美，我們認為零售鉀肥庫存較上年下降 15% 至 20%，這是因為秋季應用季節健康且補貨有限。這一估計是基於對 Nutrien Ag Solution 庫存的看法以及我們對更廣泛的零售渠道庫存的評估。我們對 1 月份發布的冬季補貨計劃反應良好，但我們仍然看到買家有一定程度的謹慎態度。我們預計會有一波額外的購買浪潮來滿足春季的需求，這將發揮 Nutrien 在北美領先的生產和分銷網絡的優勢。

Brazil has been the most active potash market to begin the year, and prices have stabilized following the significant destocking that occurred in the second half of 2022. We forecast a strong rebound in Brazilian imports in 2023 and more normal seasonal buying patterns with demand increasing in the second and third quarters.

巴西是年初最活躍的鉀肥市場，在 2022 年下半年大幅去庫存後價格趨於穩定。我們預計 2023 年巴西進口將強勁反彈，隨著需求增加，季節性購買模式將更加正常第二季和第三季。

Global nitrogen prices have softened due to the sharp drop in European gas prices and buyer deferrals. We anticipate North American nitrogen prices will firm as we approach the spring season due to higher corn acreage and the impact of increased U.S. offshore exports in the second half of 2022. We believe there is a significant amount of nitrogen that will need to be delivered over the next few months to meet demand for spring application in the Northern Hemisphere.

由於歐洲天然氣價格大幅下跌和買家延期，全球氮氣價格已經走軟。由於玉米種植面積增加以及 2022 年下半年美國離岸出口增加的影響，我們預計隨著春季臨近，北美氮氣價格將堅挺。我們認為有大量氮氣需要在未來幾個月，以滿足北半球春季應用的需求。

I will now turn it over to Pedro to review our guidance assumptions and capital allocation plans for 2023.

我現在將其轉交給佩德羅來審查我們 2023 年的指導假設和資本配置計劃。

Thanks, Ken, and good morning. Based on market conditions that Ken just highlighted, we expect to deliver historically strong earnings across each of our business segments in 2023. Starting with Nutrien Ag Solutions, we anticipate a recovery in fertilizer sales volumes and a reset in per ton margins similar to average values achieved in 2021. We are seeing strong prices for most crop protection products and forecast margin percentages in line with historical average levels. The midpoint of our 2023 retail adjusted EBITDA guidance range represents a 10% annual growth rate since 2018, reflecting the strength of Ag fundamentals and strong execution of our strategic growth initiatives.

謝謝，肯，早上好。根據 Ken 剛剛強調的市場狀況，我們預計 2023 年我們每個業務部門的收益都將達到歷史最高水平。從 Nutrien Ag Solutions 開始，我們預計化肥銷量將復蘇，每噸利潤率將重新設定為與平均值相似2021 年實現。我們看到大多數作物保護產品的價格強勁，預測利潤百分比與歷史平均水平一致。我們 2023 年零售調整後 EBITDA 指導範圍的中點代表自 2018 年以來 10% 的年增長率，反映了 Ag 基本面的實力和我們戰略增長計劃的有力執行。

Our potash sales volumes guidance of 13.8 million to 14.6 million tonnes assume increased demand in our key markets of North America and Brazil and continued global supply restrictions. We have maintained the flexibility to increase sales volumes to around 15 million tonnes in 2023, if we see stronger engagement in the market. As demonstrated in the past, there is tremendous economic value in having the capacity to meet surgeons in demand, and Nutrien has an unmatched ability to deliver when this occurs.

我們 1,380 萬噸至 1,460 萬噸的鉀肥銷量指引假設北美和巴西等主要市場的需求增加以及全球供應持續受限。如果我們看到市場參與度更高，我們會保持靈活性，在 2023 年將銷量增加到 1500 萬噸左右。正如過去所證明的那樣，擁有滿足外科醫生需求的能力具有巨大的經濟價值，而當這種情況發生時，Nutrien 具有無與倫比的交付能力。

Our nitrogen guidance reflects the recent decline in benchmark prices and assumed some strengthening prior to the spring season. We expect higher nitrogen sales volumes in 2023 due to strong demand and increased operating rates at our North American plants. We are forecasting Trinidad gas curtailments of approximately 20%, similar to the impact in the second half of 2022.

我們的氮指導反映了近期基準價格的下跌，並假設在春季之前有所走強。由於強勁的需求和北美工廠開工率的提高，我們預計 2023 年的氮氣銷量將會增加。我們預測特立尼達的天然氣削減量約為 20%，與 2022 年下半年的影響相似。

Cash from operating activities is projected at $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion in 2022. Our conversion ratio this year is impacted by timing of cash tax payments related to our record earnings in 2022. Without this impact, our conversion ratio would be estimated at around 75%, which is more in line with our run rate expectation. This is the basis we will make capital allocation decisions through the cycle and can utilize the strength of our balance sheet, if necessary, to normalize timing-related fluctuations in cash flow. We remain confident in the long-term outlook for the business and plan to invest approximately $3 billion to sustain our assets and advance high return strategic growth initiatives in 2023.

到 2022 年，來自經營活動的現金預計為 55 億至 65 億美元。我們今年的轉換率受到與 2022 年創紀錄收益相關的現金稅支付時間的影響。如果沒有這種影響，我們的轉換率估計約為 75% ，這更符合我們的運行率預期。這是我們在整個週期內做出資本配置決策的基礎，並且可以在必要時利用我們資產負債表的實力來規範與時間相關的現金流波動。我們對業務的長期前景充滿信心，併計劃在 2023 年投資約 30 億美元來維持我們的資產並推進高回報戰略增長計劃。

In retail, our focus is to strengthen our network in Brazil in POS, expand our proprietary product offerings and enhance our digital capabilities. This is very consistent with our retail investment priorities in the past. In potash, we continue to progress the ramp-up of our existing low-cost potash capacity, but have adjusted the timing to optimize capital expenditures in line with the pace of projected demand recovery in 2023 and (inaudible).

在零售方面，我們的重點是加強我們在巴西的 POS 網絡，擴大我們的專有產品供應並增強我們的數字能力。這與我們過去的零售投資重點非常一致。在鉀肥方面，我們繼續推進現有低成本鉀肥產能的提升，但根據 2023 年和（聽不清）的預計需求復蘇步伐調整了優化資本支出的時間。

We will maintain a flexible approach and now expect to reach 18 million tonnes of annual operating capability in 2026. We have the advantage of bringing on this capacity in increments at a very low capital cost per ton and continue to believe there is significant value in having flexibility to increase production when the market needs it.

我們將保持靈活的方法，現在預計到 2026 年將達到 1800 萬噸的年運營能力。我們的優勢是能夠以非常低的每噸資本成本逐步增加這一產能，並繼續相信擁有巨大的價值在市場需要時靈活地增加產量。

Our nitrogen investments are focused on concluding flight, low-cost brownfield expansions, decarburization projects and advancing front-end engineering work for our proposed Geismar clean ammonia plant. We intend on making a final investment decision on this project in the second half of the year.

我們的氮投資重點是完成飛行、低成本棕地擴建、脫碳項目和推進我們擬議的 Geismar 清潔氨工廠的前端工程工作。我們打算在下半年對該項目做出最終投資決定。

Finally, on our plans for returning capital to shareholders. We completed our 10% in CIB in early February and have purchased more than 150 million shares since the beginning of 2018, reducing our number of shares outstanding by approximately 23%. Over this period, we have also demonstrated the ability and commitment to provide a competitive, stable and growing dividend through the highs and lows of this cycle.

最後，關於我們向股東返還資本的計劃。我們在 2 月初完成了在 CIB 的 10%，並自 2018 年初以來購買了超過 1.5 億股股票，使我們的已發行股票數量減少了約 23%。在此期間，我們還展示了在這個週期的高潮和低谷中提供有競爭力、穩定和不斷增長的紅利的能力和承諾。

Moving forward, we intend on factoring in the changes to the share count as upon the decision criteria for future per share dividend growth. Yesterday, our Board of Directors approved a 10% increase in our quarterly dividend and authorized a new 5% share repurchase program that provides optionality for additional share repurchases in 2023.

展望未來，我們打算根據未來每股股息增長的決策標准考慮股份數量的變化。昨天，我們的董事會批准將季度股息增加 10%，並批准了一項新的 5% 股票回購計劃，該計劃為 2023 年額外的股票回購提供了選擇權。

I will now pass it back to Ken.

我現在將它傳回給肯。

Thanks, Pedro. I would just make a few final comments. The outlook for our business remains strong. Global grain and oilseed inventories are tight. Structural supply issues persist and demand for crop inputs is expected to increase in 2023. We will remain disciplined in our capital allocation approach as we position the company to serve the needs of our customers while delivering long-term value for our shareholders.

謝謝，佩德羅。我只想作最後幾點評論。我們的業務前景依然強勁。全球穀物和油籽庫存緊張。結構性供應問題依然存在，預計 2023 年對作物投入的需求將增加。我們將在資本配置方法上保持紀律，因為我們將公司定位為滿足客戶需求，同時為股東創造長期價值。

Finally, I would like to thank our nearly 25,000 global employees for their hard work, dedication and focus on safety over the past year. It is through your efforts that we delivered record results in 2022 and position the company for success in the years ahead. We would now be happy to take your questions.

最後，我要感謝我們近 25,000 名全球員工在過去一年中的辛勤工作、奉獻精神和對安全的關注。正是通過你們的努力，我們在 2022 年取得了創紀錄的成績，並為公司在未來幾年的成功奠定了基礎。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Andrew Wong。

So actually, I wanted to ask a bit about the potash strategy here. And just how many market conditions affect both your shorter-term kind of production decisions and the longer-term ramp-up path? Like what kind of signal do you need for demand and pricing before raising production and ramping capacity? And do you kind of tend to wait for some of these signals to show up first? Or do you maybe increase production as you might expect some of these signals to show up? I'm just kind of wondering if you can elaborate a little bit more on that.

所以實際上，我想在這裡問一些關於鉀肥策略的問題。有多少市場條件會影響您的短期生產決策和長期增長路徑？比如在提高產量和提高產能之前，您需要什麼樣的需求和定價信號？您是否傾向於等待其中一些信號先出現？或者您可能會增加產量，因為您可能希望其中一些信號出現？我只是想知道你是否可以詳細說明一下。

Andrew, thank you for the question. So yes, obviously, through 2022, we saw movement in inventory and some of the reactions to the supply side challenges related to ongoing sanctions against Belarus and of course, this conflict in Eastern Europe, which has created export challenges out of Russia. And so as we looked at the impact, not only in the near term of some of those supply disruptions, but also, as we mentioned, the impact on new projects that are under development, 60% of the new production coming into the market we believe is delayed. We believe that those sort of underlying supply challenges will persist. And we believe that they will persist into the certainly near term and into the medium term as well.

安德魯，謝謝你的提問。所以，是的，很明顯，到 2022 年，我們看到了庫存的變化，以及對供應方面挑戰的一些反應，這些挑戰與對白俄羅斯的持續制裁有關，當然還有東歐的這場衝突，這給俄羅斯帶來了出口挑戰。因此，當我們研究影響時，不僅是近期的一些供應中斷，而且正如我們提到的，對正在開發的新項目的影響，60% 的新產品進入市場相信是延遲了。我們認為，這些潛在的供應挑戰將持續存在。我們相信，它們肯定會持續到近期和中期。

On the other side of the equation with these very strong Ag fundamentals, we believe that we're heading into a strong spring application season in North America. But then also not all demand fits into the calendar year. And again, with some of these movements on inventory, we're just looking at the needs of our customers. And as we said throughout 2022, we will look at those needs, we'll look at our -- the evolution of those fundamentals, and we will pace our investments in that ramp-up accordingly.

在具有這些非常強大的 Ag 基本面的等式的另一邊，我們相信我們正在進入北美強勁的春季申請季節。但也並非所有需求都適合日曆年。再一次，由於其中一些庫存變動，我們只是在關注客戶的需求。正如我們在整個 2022 年所說的那樣，我們將研究這些需求，我們將研究我們的——這些基本面的演變，我們將相應地加快投資步伐。

So again, looking at 2022 and the movements there 2023, strong demand. But then pacing out those investments, we thought it prudent to take some of our offered, pace the ramp-up of potash production and meet the needs of our customers. So that's what we're doing. These investments are spread across dozens of projects at 4 mine sites. So we do have that flexibility. We do have that optionality. And of course, we'll be watching the signals in the market and from our customers.

再次回顧 2022 年和 2023 年的走勢，需求強勁。但在調整這些投資後，我們認為明智的做法是接受我們提供的一些投資，加快鉀肥生產的步伐並滿足客戶的需求。這就是我們正在做的。這些投資分佈在 4 個礦區的數十個項目中。所以我們確實有這種靈活性。我們確實有這種選擇權。當然，我們會關注市場和客戶發出的信號。

Also, just finally say that in terms of being nimble we can execute against these capital programs, and we do not have long lead time items here where we really need those signposts to be showing up years in advance. In fact, we can watch the signpost in the more near term and again, execute against our capital plans and ramp-up potash production.

另外，最後要說的是，就靈活性而言，我們可以針對這些資本計劃執行，而且我們這裡沒有很長的交貨時間項目，我們真的需要這些路標提前幾年出現。事實上，我們可以在更近期內觀察路標，並再次執行我們的資本計劃並提高鉀肥產量。

Your next question comes from Jacob Bout with CIBC.

您的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Jacob Bout。

A question is just on the cautiousness that you've seen in the first quarter and the risk there could be a snapback in fertilizer markets in the U.S. spring season. We get into supply chain issues in overheated markets.

問題只是你在第一季度看到的謹慎態度，以及美國春季化肥市場可能出現反彈的風險。我們在過熱的市場中陷入供應鏈問題。

Yes, that is exactly what we're seeing at the moment. You can point to nitrogen, where we typically have a seasonal all this time of the year. And we see that in potash as well, but recognizing of course that when farmers get out on the field, there's going to need to be a significant amount of volume that needs to move through the channel. So at the moment, yes, we see cautious by. The reality is that the fundamentals have improved for the pharma because the backdrop on the Ag fundamental side is strong and of course fertilizer prices have come off so that affordability has improved. I'll hand it over to Mark Thompson, our Chief Commercial Officer, to provide some more color.

是的，這正是我們目前所看到的。你可以指出氮氣，我們通常在一年中的這個時候都有季節性。我們在鉀肥中也看到了這一點，但當然要認識到，當農民走出田間時，將需要大量的鉀肥通過渠道。所以目前，是的，我們看到謹慎。現實情況是，製藥公司的基本面已經改善，因為農業基本面的背景強勁，當然化肥價格已經下降，因此負擔能力有所提高。我將把它交給我們的首席商務官馬克湯普森，以提供更多顏色。

Sure. I'll maybe make a few comments and then perhaps have Jeff talk about the inventory positioning and network at the retail level as well. From a producer standpoint, I think what you pointed out is absolutely correct. We have seen caution in the channel. It's a little bit different on potash and nitrogen. I think from a potash standpoint, the inventory destocking process we expected to see in North America, particularly, and Brazil through the end of Q4, really did take place. From a North America standpoint, we saw inventories as we assess them at the customer level down in that range of 15% to 20%. And I think Jeff and the Nutrien Ag Solutions team to corroborate that trend.

當然。我可能會發表一些評論，然後也許讓 Jeff 談談零售層面的庫存定位和網絡。從製作人的角度來看，我認為你所指出的是完全正確的。我們在頻道中看到了謹慎。鉀肥和氮肥略有不同。我認為，從鉀鹽的角度來看，我們預計到第四季度末在北美，尤其是巴西，庫存去庫存過程確實發生了。從北美的角度來看，我們在客戶層面評估庫存時發現庫存下降了 15% 到 20%。我認為 Jeff 和 Nutrien Ag Solutions 團隊證實了這一趨勢。

Our winter fill program that was put out early in 2023 had a good response. We filled about 70% of the program, which would be modestly below historical levels. And I think that reflects the overall caution that you're talking about. Of course, Jeff will be able to talk about the expectation. We do see strong grower demand coming -- but really, there is this cautious approach because of price volatility that's delayed some of that purchasing and assuming that we do see strong fundamentals emerge. We'll put a strain on the supply chain.

我們於 2023 年初推出的冬季補水計劃反響良好。我們填補了大約 70% 的計劃，這將略低於歷史水平。我認為這反映了你所說的整體謹慎。當然，Jeff 將能夠談論期望。我們確實看到強勁的種植者需求即將到來——但實際上，由於價格波動推遲了部分採購，並假設我們確實看到強勁的基本面出現，因此採取了這種謹慎的態度。我們會給供應鏈帶來壓力。

I think this is an area in potash in particular, where Nutrien is exceptionally advantaged. Our terminal network and distribution assets as it relates to potash are really unparalleled in the North American market. So we are set up very well to deliver when that spring demand breaks.

我認為這是鉀肥領域的一個特殊領域，Nutrien 在這方面具有特別的優勢。我們與鉀肥相關的終端網絡和分銷資產在北美市場確實無與倫比。因此，當春季需求中斷時，我們已經做好了交付的準備。

I think the same would be true from a nitrogen standpoint. In nitrogen, the channel is probably about average purchases relative to historical levels. But again, we have seen some grower caution. Our network is positioned to meet that demand. We've got a good portion of the second quarter order book that we've intentionally have uncommitted at this point to sell into what we expect to be firm or fundamental.

我認為從氮的角度來看也是如此。在氮氣方面，渠道可能是相對於歷史水平的平均購買量。但同樣，我們看到了一些種植者的謹慎態度。我們的網絡能夠滿足這一需求。我們在第二季度的訂單簿中有很大一部分，我們在這一點上有意不承諾出售給我們預期堅挺或基本的東西。

So notwithstanding the caution you've talked about, we think we are very well positioned. But I'll pass it to Jeff to maybe comment on the retail level position.

因此，儘管您談到了謹慎，但我們認為我們處於非常有利的位置。但我會將其傳遞給 Jeff，以便對零售級別的職位發表評論。

Yes. And I would obviously agree with comments both by Ken and Mark. If I look at our inventory levels today in our Ag Solutions business, we're sitting a bit below where we would historically be on inventories, and we have to go through it by product, particularly with potash. But I always go back and when I look at the fundamentals and what I think what's going to be demand driven I'll go back first to prepay in the fourth quarter. We had very strong prepay from our customer base in the fourth quarter.

是的。我顯然同意 Ken 和 Mark 的意見。如果我看看我們今天在 Ag Solutions 業務中的庫存水平，我們的庫存水平略低於歷史水平，我們必須按產品進行檢查，尤其是鉀肥。但我總是回去，當我查看基本面以及我認為需求驅動的東西時，我會先回去在第四季度預付。第四季度，我們的客戶群預付款非常強勁。

If I look at our seed book to date, our seed book is very strong as well. So what I'm absolutely convinced of is we're going to plan a big crop globally around these commodities. We also have the ability to look -- we do extensive solar testing. And so we've got an ability to look in and see what the fertility levels look like. If I look at a product like potash, I see about 40% of those tests that say we're below some standard of where we need to be in order to maximize yield.

如果我看看我們迄今為止的種子書，我們的種子書也非常強大。所以我絕對相信我們將在全球範圍內圍繞這些商品計劃大豐收。我們也有能力觀察——我們進行廣泛的太陽能測試。因此，我們有能力深入了解生育水平的情況。如果我看一下像鉀肥這樣的產品，我會看到大約 40% 的測試表明我們低於我們需要達到的某個標準，以最大限度地提高產量。

So to say all of that, Jacob, it probably gets back to where he started this thing is that we anticipate a lot of buying for the spring. And you're right, we could have some supply chain constraints and product doesn't start moving. And from my perspective within our retail organization, I feel strongly because we've invested very heavily in our supply chain. But growers just been a little bit slower in a lower cost environment to come in and commit particularly as it relates to nutritional.

所以說所有這些，雅各布，它可能回到他開始的地方這件事是我們預計春季會有很多購買。你是對的，我們可能會有一些供應鏈限制，產品不會開始移動。從我在零售組織內部的角度來看，我感覺很強烈，因為我們在供應鏈上投入了大量資金。但在成本較低的環境中，種植者只是稍微慢了一點，特別是在營養方面。

Your next question comes from Joshua Spector with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Joshua Spector。

This is Lucas Beaumont for Josh. So just focusing on potash deal. So could you just let us know, how much of your first quarter order book is locked in currently? And what price is it sort of locked in at the moment? And are you expecting any sequential move up in pricing from where it is now kind of baked into your guidance?

我是 Josh 的 Lucas Beaumont。所以只關注鉀肥交易。那麼，您能否告訴我們，您目前鎖定了多少第一季度的訂單？目前鎖定的價格是多少？您是否期望價格從現在納入您的指導中的任何順序上漲？

Yes. And I'll just say that just echo what Mark shared about our fill program where in North America, we were 70% subscribed and feel good about our position here in the first quarter. Offshore Canpotex is well committed into the first quarter. We won't comment on prices. We don't comment on prices. But we're guiding this year to 13.8 million to 14.6 million tonnes for the year. We do believe it's a supply-constrained market so that we're saying shipments of 63 million to 67 million tonnes again this year. And so that -- depending on how the year unfolds and certainly depending on the timing of India and China contracts, again, we're preserving capacity, sales capacity of 15 million tonnes. Again, depending on the timing of some of these settlements.

是的。我只想說，只是回應馬克分享的關於我們在北美的填充計劃的內容，我們在第一季度獲得了 70% 的訂閱，並且對我們在這裡的位置感到滿意。 Offshore Canpotex 對第一季度的承諾很好。我們不會對價格發表評論。我們不評論價格。但我們今年的指導目標是 1380 萬噸至 1460 萬噸。我們確實相信這是一個供應受限的市場，因此我們再次表示今年的出貨量為 6300 萬至 6700 萬噸。因此，這取決於這一年的發展情況，當然也取決於印度和中國合同的時間安排，我們再次保持產能，即 1500 萬噸的銷售能力。同樣，這取決於其中一些定居點的時間安排。

Your next question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

I was interested in your comments on retail expecting similar margins in 23 as you did a couple of years ago, and it's about $350 million contraction in retail earnings in 2023. So can you talk about -- when I think about $350 million lower earnings in '23, how does that shake out for commodity prices versus volume versus other things when I guess, partially offset by some of the M&A you've already done? And then how do you get retail margins that are in line with the last couple of years in a lower commodity price environment where you're not getting inventory gains?

我對你對零售業的評論很感興趣，預計 23 年的利潤率與幾年前相似，到 2023 年零售收入將收縮約 3.5 億美元。所以你能談談——當我想到 3.5 億美元的收入下降時'23，當我猜想時，商品價格與數量與其他因素的關係如何發生變化，部分被您已經完成的一些併購所抵消？然後，在沒有庫存收益的商品價格較低的環境中，您如何獲得與過去幾年一致的零售利潤率？

Thanks for that. Yes, so we have been growing our retail business, both organically and inorganically. And so that's certainly reflected in our view of 2023. But as you say, we're also expecting a bit of a reset as it relates to nutritionals as it relates to fertilizer and those fertilizer margins, but also as it relates to crop chemistry. But I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi to provide more color.

感謝那。是的，所以我們一直在有機和無機地發展我們的零售業務。因此，這肯定反映在我們對 2023 年的看法中。但正如您所說，我們也期待一些重置，因為它與營養有關，因為它與肥料和肥料利潤率有關，但也與作物化學有關。但我會把它交給 Jeff Tarsi 來提供更多顏色。

Yes, Joel. So most of our rise up last year in retail was in -- basically in the North American market. And as Pedro talked about in his commentary, we expect to reset on margins in our North American. So almost all of our resettled come in our North American market. It will basically fall in 2 buckets, it will fall in the crop chemistry bucket and the fertilizer bucket. And basically, what we're doing is we're going back and anchoring ourself to '21. And if I look at both of those 2 categories, like on a margin per ton basis for fertilizer, we're going to be slightly above where we were in '21 for our projections for '23. And our crop chemistry gross margins are going to be basically in line with where we were in '21.

是的，喬爾。因此，我們去年在零售業的大部分增長都在——基本上是在北美市場。正如佩德羅在他的評論中所說，我們希望重新調整北美的利潤率。所以幾乎所有我們重新安置的人都來到了我們的北美市場。它基本上會落在 2 個桶中，它會落在作物化學桶和肥料桶中。基本上，我們正在做的是回到 21 世紀。如果我同時查看這兩個類別，比如化肥的每噸利潤率，我們將略高於我們對 23 年預測的 21 年水平。我們的作物化學毛利率將與我們在 21 世紀的水平基本持平。

So obviously, as you talked about earlier, we caught some appreciation in both those 2 categories over -- really over the last 18 months, and we don't expect to see that same appreciation in '23. As Ken talked about, with things that we do, we're constantly trying to grow our share by proprietary business. And last year, we had an exceptional proprietary year. Our revenue was up over $400 million. Our gross margins were up just under $175 million. And so -- and new product launches contributed about $10 million of EBITDA.

很明顯，正如你之前談到的那樣，我們在過去 18 個月裡在這兩個類別中都獲得了一些升值，我們不希望在 23 年看到同樣的升值。正如肯所說，在我們所做的事情中，我們一直在努力通過專有業務擴大我們的份額。去年，我們度過了非凡的專有年。我們的收入增加了超過 4 億美元。我們的毛利率增長了將近 1.75 億美元。因此——新產品的發布貢獻了大約 1000 萬美元的 EBITDA。

What I'm excited about when we look into '23 and again, the ability to expand our margins past historical is, we'll be launching 6 new plant nutrition products in Australia. We'll be launching 6 new crop protection products in the U.S. and 7 new products in Brazil. So we're going to continue to emphasize our proprietary products. And look, our margins are going to still be, in my opinion, very attractive from a Nutrien standpoint and from a crop protection standpoint, again, when you look at it on a historical basis.

當我們再次回顧 23 年時，我感到興奮的是，有能力擴大我們過去的利潤率，我們將在澳大利亞推出 6 種新的植物營養產品。我們將在美國推出 6 種新的作物保護產品，在巴西推出 7 種新產品。因此，我們將繼續強調我們的專有產品。而且，在我看來，從 Nutrien 的角度和作物保護的角度來看，我們的利潤率仍然非常有吸引力，再次從歷史的角度來看。

We expanded our margins last year in plant nutrition substantially, and we look to continue that growth in '23 as well. So we have a lot of levers that we can pull as it relates to that.

去年我們在植物營養方面大幅擴大了利潤率，我們希望在 23 年繼續保持這種增長。因此，我們有很多與此相關的槓桿。

Your next question comes from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank.

你的下一個問題來自加拿大豐業銀行的 Ben Isaacson。

My question is about global potash demand. We had 70 million tonnes in '21, about 60 million tonnes in '22, and you're calling for about a rebound about halfway. And the question is, why aren't we getting back to 70 million tonnes? From what it sounds like channel inventories and/or soil inventories are either average or below normal farmer affordability for potash has improved, not just because potash prices are lower, but because nitrogen and phosphate prices are lower as well. We had light demand last year. We had a drought last year. You talk about caution and deferral, that's more of a timing issue. So why are we not getting back to the full 70 million tonnes? And if it's just because it's supply constrained, then why are you going down from the 50 million tonnes you talked about in November to roughly 14 million tonnes now?

我的問題是關於全球鉀肥需求。我們在 21 年有 7000 萬噸，在 22 年有大約 6000 萬噸，你要求在中途反彈。問題是，為什麼我們不回到 7000 萬噸？聽起來渠道庫存和/或土壤庫存處於平均水平或低於正常水平，農民對鉀肥的負擔能力有所提高，這不僅是因為鉀肥價格較低，還因為氮和磷酸鹽價格也較低。去年我們的需求量不大。去年我們遇到了旱災。你談到謹慎和延期，這更像是一個時間問題。那麼，為什麼我們不能恢復到全部 7000 萬噸呢？如果只是因為供應受限，那麼為什麼要從 11 月份談到的 5000 萬噸下降到現在的大約 1400 萬噸？

Yes. Those are great observations, Ben. Thank you. So we would agree with you that if we look at the unconstrained demand that we would see on the planet, given this very strong backdrop that we see with the Ag fundamentals and certainly, the way farmer affordability has improved with the softening of price, that on an unconstrained basis, we would be at 70 million tonnes. But we do believe, given these pretty extreme supply side challenges that shipments this year would be in the 63 million to 67 million tonne range. But the reality is that, that doesn't -- this doesn't all fit perfectly within the calendar year.

是的。這些都是很好的觀察，本。謝謝。所以我們同意你的看法，如果我們看看我們在這個星球上看到的不受限制的需求，鑑於我們看到的農業基本面的這種非常強大的背景，當然，農民負擔能力隨著價格走軟而提高的方式，那在不受限制的基礎上，我們將達到 7000 萬噸。但我們確實相信，鑑於這些相當極端的供應方挑戰，今年的出貨量將在 6300 萬噸至 6700 萬噸之間。但事實是，事實並非如此——這並不完全適合日曆年。

So that if we look at 2023 and we look at inventory levels around some of these major markets, certainly, we've seen destocking in North America and Brazil, but we are watching inventory levels in China, which would be about 2.3 million tonnes today. So certainly, getting below historical averages and in India, for example, where for all intense inventory levels are low. But yet at the same time, still haven't seen here we are into the middle of February, we haven't seen a contract. And so as that contract is delayed, we look at 62 million, 67 million tonnes, 70 million tonnes unconstrained, it just doesn't fit within the calendar year. And hence, we're working hard now to plan our volumes to meet the needs of our customers here in 2023, but of course, looking into 2024 now as well.

因此，如果我們展望 2023 年，看看其中一些主要市場的庫存水平，當然，我們已經看到北美和巴西的去庫存，但我們正在關注中國的庫存水平，今天約為 230 萬噸.因此，肯定會低於歷史平均水平，例如在印度，所有高庫存水平都很低。但與此同時，我們還沒有看到我們進入二月中旬，我們還沒有看到合同。因此，由於該合同被推遲，我們看到 6200 萬、6700 萬噸、7000 萬噸不受限制，只是不適合日曆年。因此，我們現在正在努力計劃我們的產量以滿足 2023 年這裡客戶的需求，但當然，現在也在展望 2024 年。

Your next question comes from Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

So Jeff Tarsi, you mentioned an increase in soil testing and 40% of them were below adequate levels in potash. My question for you is, for those growers that are looking at data like that, are they likely to return to maybe a normal application rate? Could they potentially go higher than where they were in 2021? And would you expect a similar situation in other parts of the world, maybe tap into your channel down in Brazil and in Australia? Are you seeing this trend of below-normal potash levels in soil in other regions as well?

所以 Jeff Tarsi，你提到了土壤測試的增加，其中 40% 的鉀肥含量低於足夠水平。我的問題是，對於那些正在查看此類數據的種植者來說，他們是否有可能恢復到正常的施用率？他們有可能比 2021 年的水平更高嗎？您是否期望在世界其他地方出現類似情況，也許會利用您在巴西和澳大利亞的渠道？您是否也看到其他地區土壤中鉀含量低於正常水平的趨勢？

Yes, Steve, good question. And obviously, I have a lot more visibility into those results in North America as opposed to Brazil because as you would know, we own one of the largest soil analytic lamps in North America, weapon analytical. So we have a lot of data that we can pile through to look at that. And we provided interestingly enough, we provided that data for each of our divisions and even down to the county level, where we can simulate this data.

是的，史蒂夫，問得好。顯然，與巴西相比，我對北美的這些結果有更多的了解，因為正如你所知，我們擁有北美最大的土壤分析燈之一，武器分析。所以我們有很多數據可以用來查看。有趣的是，我們提供了每個部門的數據，甚至提供了縣級的數據，我們可以在縣級模擬這些數據。

I think if I look back to the fall, Steve, we actually had a very strong fall application of both NP&K in North America. And I was quite satisfied with the rate growers we're using. And I do agree, as these products become more economical. Look, we had a lot of product banked in the show over the last couple of years. You got the last 3 falls have all 3 been record falls in North America. And so I think as the product becomes more affordable, I would expect to see some rates increase across these products. I was doing some math today. And these growers are spending upward to $150 an acre on their hybrid corn varieties. And these varieties are very temperamental with the NPK levels. And so I don't think growers are going to risk any yield from that standpoint.

我想如果我回顧一下秋天，史蒂夫，我們實際上在北美對 NP&K 進行了非常強大的秋季應用。我對我們正在使用的種植率感到非常滿意。我同意，因為這些產品變得更加經濟。看，在過去的幾年裡，我們在展會上展示了很多產品。你得到了最後 3 次跌倒，這 3 次都是北美的創紀錄跌倒。因此，我認為隨著產品變得更加實惠，我預計這些產品的費率會有所上漲。我今天在做一些數學。這些種植者在雜交玉米品種上的花費高達每英畝 150 美元。而且這些品種對 NPK 水平非常敏感。因此，從這個角度來看，我認為種植者不會拿任何產量冒險。

As we get into Brazil, you talked about Brazil. And as you know, those solds are not able to bank Nutrien like we can across the corn belt there. So it's more but just in time market. Ken and I and Pedro were just in Brazil last week, and we had a chance to visit with some growers as well as our people as well. And the Safrinha season looks strong. It's a little bit slower, but it's slower because weather -- as it's related to weather. So again, the economics and the fundamentals are strong there. I think the growers will give the crop all the juice it needs to maximize out on yields.

當我們進入巴西時，您談到了巴西。如您所知，這些銷售無法像我們可以穿過那裡的玉米帶那樣將 Nutrien 存入銀行。所以它更多但恰逢其時的市場。肯、我和佩德羅上周剛到巴西，我們有機會拜訪了一些種植者和我們的員工。 Safrinha 季節看起來很強勁。它有點慢，但它更慢是因為天氣 - 因為它與天氣有關。因此，那裡的經濟和基本面再次強勁。我認為種植者會為作物提供最大限度提高產量所需的所有汁液。

Your next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當薩繆爾森。

So a question on potash demand and really outside of North America and really thinking in the different parts of Asia and the view you have on channel inventories in the key importing regions of Southeast Asia, in China, in India that would inform kind of importer behavior that seems to be kind of mirroring the kind of slowness intensiveness that you're seeing or have seen in the U.S. and Brazil?

所以一個關於鉀肥需求的問題，實際上是北美以外的地區，真正考慮的是亞洲不同地區，以及你對東南亞、中國、印度等主要進口地區的渠道庫存的看法，這將為進口商的行為提供信息這似乎反映了您在美國和巴西看到或已經看到的那種緩慢的密集程度？

And then a second question, if I may, just on the growth investments that you alluded to for the year. There was a discussion on the retail side about digital. I was hoping if you could just elaborate on what that actually encompasses especially where that would seem to be a capital expense as opposed to an operating expense?

然後是第二個問題，如果可以的話，關於你提到的今年的增長投資。零售方面就數字進行了討論。我希望您是否可以詳細說明實際包含的內容，尤其是那些似乎是資本支出而不是運營支出的地方？

Yes. Adam, thank you for the question. So we can certainly do the market-by-market discussion about inventories. And yes, destocking again in Brazil, U.S., and we can talk about India, China and Southeast Asia. I'll hand it over to Mark Thompson to provide some color there. And then we can go to the digital question where -- yes, we are seeing substantive growth on digital as it relates to putting dollars through that platform and certainly the type of investments we're making there. But Mark, over to you.

是的。亞當，謝謝你的提問。因此，我們當然可以逐個市場地討論庫存。是的，巴西、美國再次去庫存，我們可以談談印度、中國和東南亞。我會把它交給 Mark Thompson 來提供一些顏色。然後我們可以討論數字問題——是的，我們看到了數字的實質性增長，因為它與通過該平台投入美元以及我們在那裡進行的投資類型有關。但是馬克，交給你了。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So maybe just to cover a bit of ground that Ken and I have talked about already. Again, I think from Brazil and a North America standpoint, the destocking process throughout Q4 did take place I think largely as we had anticipated in November. We've talked about North America estimating down 15% to 20% in the channel relative to the end of 2021 at the end of 2022.

是的。謝謝，肯。因此，也許只是為了涵蓋 Ken 和我已經討論過的一些基礎知識。同樣，我認為從巴西和北美的角度來看，整個第四季度的去庫存過程確實發生了，我認為這在很大程度上符合我們在 11 月份的預期。我們已經討論過北美預計到 2022 年底該渠道的銷量將比 2021 年底下降 15% 到 20%。

From a Brazil standpoint, we estimate that Brazil would have ended flat to slightly up after a historic surge in first half imports and an equally historic drop in second half imports into Brazil. So we estimate Brazil probably ended between 1.8 million to 1.9 million tonnes at the end of 2022 in inventories relative to about 1.7 million tonnes and we've done some deep dive studies on that market to corroborate that number and obviously have seen really good engagement to start the year in Brazil and some stabilization as well.

從巴西的角度來看，我們估計在上半年進口出現歷史性飆升和下半年進口同樣出現歷史性下降之後，巴西本應持平至小幅上漲。因此，我們估計到 2022 年底巴西的庫存可能在 180 萬至 190 萬噸之間，相對於 170 萬噸左右，我們對該市場進行了一些深入研究以證實這一數字，並且顯然已經看到了非常好的參與巴西開始了新的一年，也出現了一些穩定。

To your question on India, China, Southeast Asia, other markets, maybe we can just do a little bit of around the world. I think from an India standpoint, again, India ended the year at historically tight inventory levels. And as a result, we expect they're going to be the first to settle relative to China from a contract standpoint. Their inventory levels were about 130,000 metric tons per port, which would be about flat to 2021. So again, we view the impetus as being strong for India to settle a contract in the relatively near term.

對於你關於印度、中國、東南亞和其他市場的問題，也許我們可以在世界各地做一點。我認為，從印度的角度來看，印度今年年底的庫存水平處於歷史緊張水平。因此，從合同的角度來看，我們預計他們將率先與中國達成和解。他們的庫存水平約為每個港口 130,000 公噸，與 2021 年基本持平。因此，我們再次認為印度在相對較短的時間內簽訂合同的動力強勁。

From a Chinese perspective, we estimate that China would have ended with just over 2.5 million tonnes at the end of 2022. That would have been up modestly from the prior year, but again, below average levels. And we also estimate that those inventories have been drawn down to some degree. We now estimate there are about 2.3 million tonnes. I think importantly, in all this from a Chinese perspective, their strategic reserves were drawn down by about 1 million tonnes in 2022. We have the view that those would need to be rebuilt throughout 2023. And I think important to the inventory equation in China is also production. And we view that Chinese production levels in 2022 at around 7 million tonnes are likely not repeatable. So we expect that number to drop as well in 2023. So again, I think a good backdrop from an inventory standpoint in China.

從中國的角度來看，我們估計到 2022 年底中國的產量將略高於 250 萬噸。這將比上一年略有增加，但同樣低於平均水平。我們還估計這些庫存已在一定程度上減少。我們現在估計大約有 230 萬噸。我認為重要的是，從中國的角度來看，他們的戰略儲備在 2022 年減少了約 100 萬噸。我們認為這些儲備需要在 2023 年重建。我認為這對中國的庫存方程很重要也是生產。我們認為中國 2022 年約 700 萬噸的產量水平可能無法重複。所以我們預計這個數字在 2023 年也會下降。因此，我認為從中國的庫存角度來看，這是一個很好的背景。

And then just to round things out in Southeast Asia, our view would be currently that Malaysian inventories are relatively balanced and in a good spot. And Indonesia is very close. We see Indonesia probably coming into balance here over the next couple of weeks, in fact, and we expect very good engagement from both of these markets as we get into Q2. So of course, the catalyst for this will be continued movement of product and liquidity in Brazil, which we've seen, but also the settlement of contracts, which will provide price discovery for these international markets to begin to pull.

然後只是為了解決東南亞的問題，我們認為目前馬來西亞的庫存相對平衡並且處於有利位置。和印度尼西亞非常接近。事實上，我們認為印度尼西亞可能會在接下來的幾週內達到平衡，並且我們預計在進入第二季度時這兩個市場的參與度會非常高。因此，當然，催化劑將是我們已經看到的巴西產品和流動性的持續流動，以及合同的結算，這將為這些國際市場提供價格發現以開始拉動。

So as Ken said, all of these things don't fit perfectly into a calendar year, but we do believe that once we see contract settlement and this engagement reemerge, that we are going to hit a very strong run rate for global potash demand. So I'll just pass on question on digital capital expenditures.

因此，正如 Ken 所說，所有這些事情並不完全適合一個日曆年，但我們確實相信，一旦我們看到合同結算和這種參與重新出現，我們將達到非常強勁的全球鉀肥需求運行率。所以我只想回答有關數字資本支出的問題。

Yes. Thanks. And we do continue to invest in our digital platform. And we think that our digital platform is essential to the total platform that we run in our Ag Solutions business. And if I look at our focus today, which is centered around becoming the most customer focused, being able to provide the most customer-focused sustainable solutions to our growers. And digital is going to play an absolute central part in the decision-making process. And this requires a lot of data generation, and it requires a lot of data mining. And look, for instance, if I look at our seed shift and the growth projections that we have around see, a lot of that growth in amiable part of growing our share in that seat business is going to be able -- is around mining data, collecting data and being able to provide that data back to our growers in a really timely fashion.

是的。謝謝。我們確實繼續投資於我們的數字平台。我們認為我們的數字平台對於我們在 Ag Solutions 業務中運行的整個平台至關重要。如果我看看我們今天的重點，那就是成為最以客戶為中心的公司，能夠為我們的種植者提供最以客戶為中心的可持續解決方案。數字將在決策過程中發揮絕對的核心作用。而這需要大量的數據生成，需要大量的數據挖掘。看看，例如，如果我看看我們的種子轉移和我們周圍看到的增長預測，在增加我們在該座位業務中的份額的可喜部分中，很多增長將能夠 - 圍繞挖掘數據，收集數據並能夠及時將這些數據提供給我們的種植者。

Also, we just finished I've just finished a tour around our complete Ag Solutions business basically since the second week of January and nowhere have we been and not any pharma group have we talked to that the discussion has not been around sustainability and sustainable solutions going forward in agriculture. And I can tell you that you're not going to have a sustainability platform without a digital platform. You've got to have it, be able to collect your data. You've got to have it to be able to validate that data as well on a crop basis. So we do feel very strongly about this, and we very committed to it. And very committed to it being a central part of our platform.

此外，我們剛剛完成我剛剛結束了對我們完整的 Ag Solutions 業務的參觀，基本上是從 1 月的第二週開始，我們沒有去過任何地方，也沒有與任何製藥集團交談過，討論沒有圍繞可持續性和可持續解決方案農業向前發展。我可以告訴你，沒有數字平台，你就不會擁有可持續發展平台。你必須擁有它，才能收集你的數據。您必須擁有它才能在作物基礎上驗證該數據。所以我們對此有強烈的感覺，我們非常致力於它。並且非常致力於將其作為我們平台的核心部分。

Your next question comes from Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho.

你的下一個問題來自瑞穗的克里斯托弗帕金森。

Very helpful chart on Page 25 in terms of your expectations for production across the various geographies. Could you set on a little bit more on how this flows into your high and the low end of your potash guidance in terms of -- if demand starts trending towards the high end of your, let's say, global range? Is that -- are those tons mostly going to be coming presumably from Canpotex? And what would kind of be your baseline expectation for the growth in North America once inventories normalize between you and the other North American producers? Just any general framework on how that flows into the high end the loan to the potash guidance would be very helpful.

第 25 頁上的圖表非常有用，有助於了解您對不同地區生產的期望。如果需求開始趨向於全球範圍的高端，您能否進一步說明這如何流入您的鉀肥指導的高端和低端？那是——那些噸數大部分可能來自 Canpotex 嗎？一旦您和其他北美生產商之間的庫存正常化，您對北美增長的基本預期是什麼？任何關於貸款如何流入高端鉀肥指導的一般框架都會非常有幫助。

Thank you for the question. Yes, we have -- the big supply challenges are the ones we talk about, and that's putting a range on what we believe could happen in 2023 out of Russia and certainly out of Belarus with the nimble, flexible supply being our own. But I'll hand it over to Jason Newton to provide more detail.

感謝你的提問。是的，我們有——我們談論的是巨大的供應挑戰，這就是我們認為 2023 年俄羅斯，當然還有白俄羅斯可能發生的事情的範圍，我們自己有靈活、靈活的供應。但我會把它交給 Jason Newton 來提供更多細節。

Yes, as we look at the range that we have for potash shipments globally, the top end of that range, in particular, is restricted by the level of potash production globally. And so that's really what caps that out. And if we look at the range we have for shipments from Belarus and Russia, that respectively expected to be down 40%, 60% and 15% to 30% versus 2021 levels. And so that really constrains the top end of the shipment range.

是的，當我們審視全球鉀肥出貨量範圍時，該範圍的上限尤其受到全球鉀肥生產水平的限制。所以這才是真正的上限。如果我們看看白俄羅斯和俄羅斯的出貨量範圍，預計與 2021 年的水平相比分別下降 40%、60% 和 15% 至 30%。因此，這確實限制了出貨範圍的高端。

And similarly, as we look throughout that range, given that wide level of uncertainty in shipments from that Russia and Belarus, there's a number of scenarios that can develop within that range that leads to the potential for higher production from Nutrien as a swing producer within that level. So it really continues to be a supply-constrained environment in 2022, notwithstanding the slow start to the year, which also limits the production.

同樣，當我們審視整個範圍時，鑑於來自俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的出貨量存在廣泛的不確定性，在該範圍內可以發展出許多情景，從而導致 Nutrien 作為內部搖擺生產商的產量可能更高那個水平。因此，2022 年確實繼續是一個供應受限的環境，儘管今年開局緩慢，這也限制了產量。

And as we look forward, and we show in the slide deck as well, the range of shipments going forward, we don't see a potential midpoint of that range of shipments going back to trend levels until 2025. And if we look back over the last 20 years, there hasn't been a period of more than 2 consecutive years where shipments have fallen below trend levels. And so if supply becomes available, we'd expect hedge up demand to (inaudible).

當我們展望未來時，我們也在幻燈片中展示了未來的出貨量範圍，我們看不到該出貨量範圍的潛在中點會在 2025 年之前回到趨勢水平。如果我們回顧過去在過去的 20 年裡，出貨量連續 2 年低於趨勢水平的時期從未出現過。因此，如果供應可用，我們預計對沖需求（聽不清）。

Your next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

You commented on soil testing for potash in the United States. Did you also look at soil testing for phosphate that is phosphate under applied? And in the first quarter of 2023, have you hedged your gas in the United States and in Canada? Or is it more free flowing and you can get the benefits of the gas decreases?

你評論了美國鉀肥的土壤測試。您是否也看過土壤測試中的磷酸鹽，即施用的磷酸鹽？在 2023 年第一季度，您是否對美國和加拿大的天然氣進行了對沖？或者它是否更自由流動並且您可以獲得氣體減少的好處？

So with respect to soft sampling and phosphate levels in the soil, short answer is, yes, we do look at that. And I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi to provide that color and then to talk about hedging for gas, I'll hand it over to Pedro.

因此，關於土壤中的軟採樣和磷酸鹽含量，簡短的回答是，是的，我們確實在研究。我會把它交給 Jeff Tarsi 來提供那種顏色，然後再討論天然氣對沖，我會把它交給 Pedro。

Yes. We look -- when we're doing the soil testing, we're not only testing for NP&K. We're testing for micronutrients as well in the soil. So they're very, very comprehensive testing. We do see a trend that's similar to the potash. The potash kind of stuck out to me a bit. Phosphate reduction wasn't quite as much as we saw across those states. But still, we saw a significant amount that we're under some desirable level there.

是的。我們看——當我們進行土壤測試時，我們不僅在測試 NP&K。我們也在測試土壤中的微量營養素。所以他們是非常非常全面的測試。我們確實看到了類似於鉀肥的趨勢。鉀肥對我來說有點突出。磷酸鹽的減少並不像我們在這些州看到的那麼多。但是，我們仍然看到很多我們在那里處於一些理想的水平。

But again, we're doing this testing, and we're writing scientific prescriptions for the crop and the variety and the hybrid and such. And so we -- obviously, we can take these tests and do a lot with as far as building our solutions out going forward. And this is not something new. We've been doing this testing for a number of years. But we have -- we've seen the testing increase over the last 3 or 4 years because growers more kin, our agronomist more kin again to making science-based decisions on what we're delivering.

但同樣，我們正在做這個測試，我們正在為作物、品種和雜交等編寫科學處方。所以我們 - 顯然，我們可以進行這些測試，並在構建我們的解決方案方面做很多事情。這不是什麼新鮮事。多年來，我們一直在進行這項測試。但我們已經 - 我們已經看到在過去 3 或 4 年中測試有所增加，因為種植者更親近，我們的農藝師再次更親近地對我們提供的產品做出基於科學的決策。

Maybe Jeff, this is Pedro. I'm going to comment a little bit on the hedging. From a financial standpoint, our best travel to talk about the commercial standpoint too, because we are essentially both financially and commercially hedged in terms of gas. But from a financial standpoint, we have been -- now our hedges have been somewhat immaterial, I would say, less than 10% (inaudible) flowing through that. We see greater opportunities to hedge at this point from a financial standpoint since we are reaching (inaudible) levels kind of low levels here. So we're looking more closely into that at this point in time, but they have not been that material up until now.

也許傑夫，這是佩德羅。我將對對沖進行一些評論。從財務的角度來看，我們最好也談談商業角度的旅行，因為我們基本上在天然氣方面進行了財務和商業對沖。但從財務的角度來看，我們一直 - 現在我們的對沖有點無關緊要，我想說，只有不到 10%（聽不清）流過它。從財務的角度來看，我們在這一點上看到了更多的對沖機會，因為我們在這里達到了（聽不清）的低水平。所以我們現在正在更仔細地研究它，但直到現在它們還不是那種材料。

So I'll pass it on to (inaudible) because a good portion of our production is hedged, but commercially so.

所以我會把它傳遞給（聽不清），因為我們生產的很大一部分是對沖的，但在商業上也是如此。

Yes. Thanks for the question. In a high level, we're in the range of about 20%. That's naturally hedged with some of the industrial contracts that we have, both in North America and obviously in Trinidad. But as Pedro alluded, with some of the seasonably low prices that we're seeing right now, both in North and Canada and U.S., we're evaluating opportunities to hedge and/or lock in some of that position here going into the remainder of 2023.

是的。謝謝你的問題。在高水平上，我們處於大約 20% 的範圍內。這自然與我們在北美和特立尼達的一些工業合同進行了對沖。但正如佩德羅所暗示的那樣，由於我們目前在北部、加拿大和美國看到的一些季節性低價，我們正在評估對沖和/或鎖定部分頭寸的機會，以進入剩餘時間2023.

Your next question comes from Michael Tupholme with TD Securities.

您的下一個問題來自道明證券的 Michael Tupholme。

Ken, I know you said you don't intend to comment too much on pricing. But when we look at the 2023 guidance you provided, are you able to talk at all about what you've assumed in terms of realized pricing for both potash and nitrogen at the high end versus the low end of the guidance ranges you provided?

肯，我知道你說過你不打算對定價發表過多評論。但是，當我們查看您提供的 2023 年指導時，您能否談談您對鉀肥和氮肥的實際定價在您提供的指導範圍的高端與低端的假設？

Yes. Thanks, Michael. Yes, I can speak in general terms to say that we're sort of looking at potash pricing where it is today. So you can point to, for example, sort of 500 to 520 in Brazil and thinking about that as a bit of a benchmark and sort of flat pricing, let's say, throughout 2023 from those levels. Obviously, with all the dynamics we just talked about, we could see volatility around some of those numbers, but that would be our assumption today. And as it relates to nitrogen, we do expect firming and price from the levels that we're seeing today, and it's for all the reasons that we talked about.

是的。謝謝，邁克爾。是的，我可以籠統地說，我們正在研究目前的鉀肥定價。因此，例如，您可以指出巴西的 500 到 520，並將其視為基準和固定定價，比方說，從這些水平到整個 2023 年。顯然，根據我們剛才談到的所有動態，我們可以看到其中一些數字存在波動，但這是我們今天的假設。由於它與氮有關，我們確實預計我們今天看到的水平會堅挺和價格上漲，這是出於我們談到的所有原因。

Your next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

This is Will Tang on for Vincent. So you've guided 2023 down across all your major business segments with the exception of phosphate at the midpoint. I'm wondering if you could help me bridge between 2022 and 2023, what's driving the relative strength there, especially as it looks like the underlying commodity fertilizer prices are going to be down on a year-over-year basis?

這是文森特的唐威爾。因此，您已將 2023 年引導至所有主要業務部門，但中點的磷酸鹽除外。我想知道你是否可以幫助我在 2022 年和 2023 年之間架起橋樑，是什麼推動了那裡的相對強勢，尤其是在基礎商品化肥價格看起來將同比下降的情況下？

Yes. Well, I think what I would say, Will, is just what we've talked about on this call, and that is that the big impact has been we've seen just the softening in commodity prices from peak 2022 levels. And so if we're comparing across our business, our crop nutrient business, potash nitrogen, I mean, that's -- the story is on netbacks. So if we're talking about margins in retail, it's really the reset on crop nutrients and crop chemistry. It is offset by higher volumes across -- on the NPK side, it is offset by higher volumes. But again, we have this netback effect. And then finally, I'll just say, again, we do have this timing thing going on where not everything fits within the calendar year.

是的。好吧，威爾，我想我要說的正是我們在這次電話會議上談到的，那就是我們已經看到大宗商品價格從 2022 年的峰值水平開始走軟。因此，如果我們比較我們的業務，我們的作物營養業務，鉀氮，我的意思是，那是 - 這個故事是在淨回。因此，如果我們談論零售利潤率，那實際上是對作物養分和作物化學的重新設定。它被更高的銷量所抵消——在 NPK 方面，它被更高的銷量所抵消。但同樣，我們有這種淨回效應。最後，我再說一遍，我們確實有這個時間安排，但並非所有事情都適合日曆年。

Your next question comes from Steve Hansen with Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Steve Hansen 和 Raymond James。

A question for perhaps Ken and Mark. I was just hoping you could speak to the opportunity for continued synergy extraction from the integrated business model that really does define Nutrien now. We obviously saw an intense focus on synergies in the early years post-merger. Just curious on whether you could comment on if there's another round of synergies to come or whether that's more of a secondary focus at this point?

也許是 Ken 和 Mark 的問題。我只是希望你能談談從現在真正定義 Nutrien 的集成業務模型中持續提取協同效應的機會。我們顯然在合併後的最初幾年看到了對協同效應的強烈關注。只是想知道您是否可以評論是否還會有另一輪協同效應，或者這是否是目前的次要重點？

Now, Steve, thank you for the question. And yes, we certainly do see opportunity. In fact, we created the structure in 2022 to establish a commercial unit within Nutrien that Mark Thompson, our Chief Commercial Officer, is heading up -- and yes, and that is -- we are seeing opportunity there, and that's evolving. But I'll hand it over to Jeff and to Mark to talk about exactly some of those opportunities we're seeing. And as you say, Steve, what the synergies might be.

現在，史蒂夫，謝謝你提出這個問題。是的，我們確實看到了機會。事實上，我們在 2022 年創建了一個結構，以在 Nutrien 內部建立一個商業部門，我們的首席商務官馬克湯普森將領導這個部門——是的，那就是——我們在那裡看到了機會，而且它正在發展。但我會把它交給 Jeff 和 Mark 來談談我們正在看到的一些機會。正如你所說，史蒂夫，協同作用可能是什麼。

Yes, I'll make a few comments, and then I'll turn it over to Mark. But Mark and I have worked very closely together over the last several months. And from a retail perspective, I mean, the 2 buckets that I look in are, number 1, logistics and what can we do to take some cost out from a logistical side of it. In a lot of cases, upside of the organization and using some of the same carriers at different rates. And so how do we get more efficient? And from that standpoint, how do we touch product less than we do today?

是的，我會發表一些評論，然後我會把它交給馬克。但在過去的幾個月裡，馬克和我密切合作。從零售的角度來看，我的意思是，我看的兩個桶是，第一，物流，我們可以做些什麼來從物流方面減少一些成本。在很多情況下，組織的優勢在於以不同的費率使用一些相同的運營商。那麼我們如何提高效率呢？從這個角度來看，我們如何比今天更少接觸產品？

And then overlaying a footprint of our assets together from a terminal and storage standpoint and how do we better utilize those assets. And I can't think of anybody better than Mark to dig through those opportunities with myself and that's what we plan on doing going forward. And Mark, I'll let you get in a little bit more granular into some of that.

然後從終端和存儲的角度將我們的資產足跡疊加在一起，以及我們如何更好地利用這些資產。我想不出比馬克更好的人來挖掘這些機會，這就是我們未來的計劃。馬克，我會讓你更詳細地了解其中的一些內容。

Sure. Thanks, Jeff. And Steve, thanks for the question. Yes, I wholeheartedly agree with everything that Jeff said. I mean, we both believe, and I think the executive team believes there is more opportunity in integrated model to continue to extract value for shareholders and really develop competitive advantages for the company.

當然。謝謝，傑夫。史蒂夫，謝謝你提出這個問題。是的，我完全同意傑夫所說的一切。我的意思是，我們都相信，而且我認為執行團隊相信集成模型有更多機會繼續為股東提取價值並真正為公司發展競爭優勢。

And so I see those as Jeff said, falling into a few different categories. I think 3 primarily. I think the first is really on optimizing the procurement sourcing relationship and sales relationship within the company. And as the retail network continues to grow globally throughout Nutrien as we continue to expand volumes in our production business, it does open up new opportunities to look at how we sell and procure within the company to optimize value throughout cycles. I think a great example of that is in the fourth quarter that we just saw in a historically volatile period. Now I'm looking at our supply chain holistically and being able to forward place product is something that the Nutrien Ag Solutions and Nutrien team worked on to ensure that we're maximizing channel margin for the company.

因此，正如 Jeff 所說，我將它們分為幾個不同的類別。我認為主要是3。我認為首先是優化公司內部的採購關係和銷售關係。隨著我們繼續擴大生產業務量，整個 Nutrien 的零售網絡在全球範圍內不斷發展，這確實開闢了新的機會來審視我們如何在公司內部銷售和採購以優化整個週期的價值。我認為一個很好的例子是我們剛剛在歷史動盪時期看到的第四季度。現在，我正在全面審視我們的供應鏈，並且能夠轉發產品是 Nutrien Ag Solutions 和 Nutrien 團隊致力於確保我們最大化公司渠道利潤的事情。

I think the second category that Jeff mentioned explained very well, is around network optimization, PD&L, vendor management and all these areas that we can really optimize the way product is moving around the network and look at storage and distribution across the Nutrien enterprise. And then I think lastly, a real opportunity around specialty products growth. And I think Jeff has talked this morning on the call about really the evolution in thinking at the grower level and the need for specialty nutrition and more sustainable products. We've got great products inside of Nutrien like ESN and MAP MST and really continuing to work together on a network basis to put those products in our customers' hands. So this is something that's ongoing over time, and I think we can continue to add value to the company as we move forward.

我認為 Jeff 提到的第二個類別解釋得很好，圍繞網絡優化、PD&L、供應商管理以及我們可以真正優化產品在網絡中移動的方式的所有這些領域，並著眼於整個 Nutrien 企業的存儲和分配。最後，我認為圍繞專業產品增長的真正機會。我想傑夫今天早上在電話會議上談到了種植者層面思維的真正演變，以及對特殊營養和更可持續產品的需求。我們在 Nutrien 內部擁有出色的產品，如 ESN 和 MAP MST，並且真正繼續在網絡基礎上合作，將這些產品交到我們的客戶手中。所以這是隨著時間的推移而持續的事情，我認為我們可以在前進的過程中繼續為公司增加價值。

Your next question comes from P. Juvekar with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗的 P. Juvekar。

This is [Patrick Clingan] for P.J. What are your expectations for seed prices this season? And then for your Dyna-Gro, what's the market share currently? And any expectation to grow market share this year?

我是 P.J 的 [Patrick Clingan]。您對本季種子價格有何預期？然後對於您的 Dyna-Gro，目前的市場份額是多少？對今年增加市場份額有何期望？

Yes. Thank you for the question. We're certainly constructive on seed and I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk about that.

是的。感謝你的提問。我們在種子方面當然是有建設性的，我會把它交給傑夫來談談。

Yes. I'd say that overall in the year we just finished in '22, we had about a 30 basis point increase in market share across our total seed portfolio. If I look at the seed price for '23, we've seen somewhere between -- let's say, depending on the crop somewhere between a 6% to 10% increase in seed prices year-over-year and being reflective that in the '22 season, most seed companies chose not to have any price increase at all. So we were expecting an increase for '23 and again, somewhere between that 6% to 10% standpoint.

是的。我想說的是，在我們剛剛結束的 22 年那一年，我們在整個種子投資組合中的市場份額增加了大約 30 個基點。如果我看一下 23 年的種子價格，我們會看到介於兩者之間——比方說，根據作物的不同，種子價格同比上漲 6% 到 10%，並反映在 ' 22季，多數種業公司選擇不漲價。因此，我們預計 23 年會再次增加，介於 6% 到 10% 之間。

Look, Dyna-Gro continues to be an integral part of our seed strategy. And we continue to work to strengthen our portfolio, either through proprietary breeding or through our strategic relationships we have with our suppliers. We've had some major successes this past year, particularly with rice, which is our Dyna-Gro 63-line. That's a proprietary germplasm brand within our business, and we've had a lot of success there. We continue to have success with our proven canola brand. And you mentioned Dyna-Gro, we would think our share increases would be in line with what we saw across our broad portfolio with it.

看，Dyna-Gro 繼續成為我們種子戰略不可或缺的一部分。我們將繼續努力加強我們的產品組合，無論是通過專有育種還是通過我們與供應商的戰略關係。過去一年我們取得了一些重大成功，尤其是在大米方面，這是我們的 Dyna-Gro 63 系列。這是我們業務中的專有種質品牌，我們在那裡取得了很大的成功。我們憑藉久經考驗的油菜籽品牌繼續取得成功。你提到 Dyna-Gro，我們認為我們的份額增長將與我們在廣泛的投資組合中看到的一致。

Your next question comes from Richard Garchitorena with Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Richard Garchitorena。

Just quickly on the potash strategy. I just wanted to touch on the decision to delay the ramp-up to 18 million tonnes, potentially by 2026. Is your ramp-up -- is it based on the assumption that you get unconstrained demand of 70 million tonnes at some point?

快點實施鉀肥戰略。我只是想談談將增產推遲到 1800 萬噸的決定，可能到 2026 年。你的增產是基於這樣的假設嗎？你在某個時候會得到 7000 萬噸的無限制需求？

And then as a follow-up, so if we see things continuing to remain constrained in the 63 million to 67 million tonnes, can you continue to defer the ramp-up? I guess, is there any issues related to that in terms of equipment orders or site preparation, that type of thing?

然後作為後續行動，如果我們看到情況繼續受到 6300 萬噸至 6700 萬噸的限制，您能否繼續推遲增產？我想，在設備訂單或現場準備方面是否存在與此相關的問題？

Yes. Thank you for the question, Richard. And I'll start and then I'll hand it over to Chris Reynolds just to talk about optionality that we have as it relates to the ramp-up. It's just to say that and just echoing Jason Newton's comments earlier. We believe that we are going to be in a supply-constrained environment here for a few years. And what's the reason for that?

是的。謝謝你的問題，理查德。我會開始，然後我會把它交給 Chris Reynolds 來談談我們擁有的與提升相關的可選性。只是這麼說，只是回應了 Jason Newton 之前的評論。我們相信，我們將在幾年內處於供應受限的環境中。那是什麼原因呢？

Well, we do see demand growing. I mean for all the reasons we've talked about, the fundamentals are strong. But we back cast over the last 20 years, price demand has been growing at over 2.5% CAGRs. And so in an environment where demand continues to grow, unconstrained demand continues to grow, but yet we have these supply side challenges, we will be in a supply-constrained market. And hence, our view of meeting the needs of our customers ramping up potash production. But I'll hand it over to Chris Reynolds just to talk about, again, some of the optionality that we have as it relates to the nimbleness of our ramp-up capital program.

好吧，我們確實看到需求在增長。我的意思是，出於我們所討論的所有原因，基本面是強大的。但我們回顧過去 20 年，價格需求一直以超過 2.5% 的複合年增長率增長。因此，在需求持續增長的環境中，不受約束的需求繼續增長，但我們面臨這些供應方面的挑戰，我們將處於一個供應受限的市場。因此，我們認為滿足客戶提高鉀肥生產的需求。但我會把它交給克里斯雷諾茲，再次談談我們擁有的一些可選性，因為它與我們的加速資本計劃的靈活性有關。

Richard, thanks for the question. So as you mentioned and as we mentioned last year when we first announced this ramp that we had already built in numerous off-ramps that we could trigger if market conditions changed a little bit from our assumptions. And so this plan to ramp-up 18 million tonnes, involves dozens of projects, mainly across 4 of our potash sites and equipment that's mainly related to underground operations. So mining machines and conveyor belts.

理查德，謝謝你的提問。因此，正如您提到的那樣，正如我們去年首次宣布這個坡道時提到的那樣，我們已經建立了許多出口坡道，如果市場條件與我們的假設有一點變化，我們可以觸發這些坡道。因此，這個增加 1800 萬噸的計劃涉及數十個項目，主要涉及我們的 4 個鉀鹽場和主要與地下作業相關的設備。所以採礦機和傳送帶。

And so yes, we -- these are not -- as Ken mentioned in his opening remarks, these are not long lead time items. And again, if things were to change materially in terms of timing, we could delay the purchasing of some of this equipment. But again, the longer-term outlook that we have and the need that we believe the global market is going to have for 18 million tonnes for Nutrien is still intact, and we're really just delivering on what we'd already explained when we first announced the ramp.

所以是的，我們 - 這些不是 - 正如 Ken 在開場白中提到的那樣，這些不是很長的交貨時間項目。再一次，如果事情在時間上發生重大變化，我們可以推遲購買其中一些設備。但同樣，我們擁有的長期前景以及我們認為全球市場對 1800 萬噸 Nutrien 的需求仍然完好無損，我們實際上只是在兌現我們已經解釋過的內容首先宣布坡道。

There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.

目前沒有其他問題。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and thanks everyone for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available for any follow-up calls. Have a great day.

謝謝接線員，也感謝大家今天加入我們。投資者關係團隊可以接聽任何後續電話。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。