Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2020 First Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 的 2020 年第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Holzman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Holzman。謝謝你。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's First Quarter 2022 Conference Call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain material assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our current quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form filed with Canadian and U.S. Securities Commissions.

謝謝你，接線員。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2022 年第一季度電話會議。在我們進行本次電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計劃和前景所做的各種陳述都包含前瞻性信息。作出這些結論和預測時應用了某些重大假設。因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性信息中包含的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的其他信息包含在我們向股東提交的當前季度報告以及我們向加拿大和美國證券委員會提交的最新年度報告、MD&A 和年度信息表中。

I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Interim President and CEO; and Pedro Farah, our CFO, for opening comments before we take your questions.

我現在將把電話轉給臨時總裁兼首席執行官 Ken Seitz；以及我們的首席財務官 Pedro Farah，感謝您在我們回答您的問題之前發表評論。

Thanks, Jeff. And good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's First Quarter Earnings Call. Before we get into the discussion of our results and outlook, I would like to express our thoughts and sympathies to all those that have been impacted by the conflict in Ukraine. We see the significant toll that has taken on the people in Ukraine, and it hits close to home for many of our employees, customers and other stakeholders that have family and friends in the region. The conflict has also compounded supply challenges that have contributed to higher commodity prices and escalated concerns for global food security. Russia and Ukraine account for over 20% of the global exports for many agriculture and fertilizer commodities, and there's no simple or fast solution to overcome this level of supply disruption. As the world's largest fertilizer producer and retailer crop input, Nutrien has taken several actions to help our customers secure the products they need.

謝謝，傑夫。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 的第一季度財報電話會議。在我們開始討論我們的結果和前景之前，我想向所有受到烏克蘭衝突影響的人表達我們的想法和同情。我們看到了烏克蘭人民遭受的重大損失，並且對於我們的許多員工、客戶和其他在該地區有家人和朋友的利益相關者來說，這都在離家很近的地方。衝突還加劇了供應挑戰，導致大宗商品價格上漲，並加劇了對全球糧食安全的擔憂。俄羅斯和烏克蘭佔許多農業和化肥商品全球出口的 20% 以上，沒有簡單或快速的解決方案來克服這種供應中斷程度。作為全球最大的化肥生產商和農作物投入品零售商，Nutrien 採取了多項行動來幫助我們的客戶獲得所需的產品。

In Potash, we are expanding production capability to approximately 15 million tonnes in 2022, an increase of 1 million tonnes compared to our initial expectations. This represents a nearly 20% increase compared to 2020 and accounts for more than 70% of global potash production added during this time. We have expanded our nitrogen production capacity by nearly 1 million tonnes since the beginning of 2018 and are in the process of adding an additional 0.5 million tonnes over the next few years, while improving the carbon footprint of our facilities. Our Retail business operates in 7 countries across North America, South America and Australia. These are key agricultural regions that will be called on to sustainably increase crop production. And our team of 3,900 crop consultants work every day to provide innovative products and solutions that meet the needs of our grower customers. I'm extremely proud of how our people have stepped up across the organization as we respond to this critical time for global agriculture and do so in a manner that does not compromise our core values of safety and integrity.

在鉀肥，我們正在將產能擴大到 2022 年約 1500 萬噸，與我們最初的預期相比增加了 100 萬噸。與 2020 年相比，這意味著增加了近 20%，佔此期間增加的全球鉀肥產量的 70% 以上。自 2018 年初以來，我們已將氮氣產能擴大了近 100 萬噸，並正在未來幾年再增加 50 萬噸，同時改善我們設施的碳足跡。我們的零售業務在北美、南美和澳大利亞的 7 個國家/地區開展業務。這些是關鍵的農業地區，將被要求以可持續的方式增加作物產量。我們的 3,900 名作物顧問團隊每天都在努力提供創新的產品和解決方案，以滿足我們種植者客戶的需求。我為我們的員工在整個組織中的進步感到非常自豪，因為我們應對全球農業的這一關鍵時刻並且以不損害我們安全和誠信核心價值觀的方式這樣做。

Now turning to our Q1 results and outlook. We delivered higher earnings across each of our business units due to the strength of the market fundamentals, advantaged position of our assets and solid execution by our people. The year-over-year growth in earnings was further supported by recent strategic capital allocation decisions that included expanding our production capabilities and increasing the size of share buybacks over the past 2 quarters. Nutrien Ag Solutions delivered record first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $240 million despite a delayed start to the spring season in North America. Our per tonne crop nutrient margins remained strong due to the timing of procurement in a rising price environment and continued growth in our proprietary nutritional products. We delivered higher crop protection gross margins as growers engaged early to purchase product ahead of the spring season. We strategically procured inventory of certain products in anticipation of tight global supply and our margins in Q1 reflect this effort.

現在轉向我們的第一季度業績和展望。由於市場基本面的強勁、我們資產的優勢地位和我們員工的穩健執行，我們在每個業務部門都實現了更高的收益。最近的戰略資本分配決策進一步支持了收益的同比增長，其中包括在過去兩個季度擴大我們的生產能力和增加股票回購的規模。儘管北美春季開始推遲，但 Nutrien Ag Solutions 第一季度調整後 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 2.4 億美元。由於價格上漲環境下的採購時機以及我們專有營養產品的持續增長，我們的每噸作物營養利潤率保持強勁。由於種植者在春季之前提前購買產品，我們實現了更高的作物保護毛利率。由於預計全球供應緊張，我們戰略性地採購了某些產品的庫存，我們在第一季度的利潤率反映了這一努力。

Potash delivered $1.4 billion in adjusted EBITDA, supported by higher realized prices. Global demand was strong as buyers look to secure product in the midst of supply uncertainty from Belarus and Russia. We increased offshore potash sales volumes by 8% compared to the previous year. However, shipments were impacted by rail service interruptions during the quarter. North American sales volumes were impacted by a delayed start to the spring season and were down compared to last year's very strong first quarter.

在較高的已實現價格的支持下，Potash 實現了 14 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。全球需求強勁，因為買家希望在白俄羅斯和俄羅斯供應不確定的情況下確保產品安全。與上一年相比，我們的海上鉀肥銷量增加了 8%。然而，出貨量受到本季度鐵路服務中斷的影響。北美的銷量受到春季開始延遲的影響，與去年非常強勁的第一季度相比有所下降。

In nitrogen, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $1 billion, driven by higher realized prices and the cost advantaged position of our assets. We experienced some unplanned outages during the quarter, and sales volumes were also impacted by a slow start to the spring season.

在氮氣方面，我們產生了 10 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，這是由於較高的已實現價格和我們資產的成本優勢地位。我們在本季度經歷了一些計劃外的停電，銷量也受到春季開局緩慢的影響。

Phosphate delivered record adjusted EBITDA of $239 million as higher sales prices more than offset the large increase in ammonia and sulfur input costs.

磷酸鹽的調整後 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 2.39 億美元，因為較高的銷售價格抵消了氨和硫輸入成本的大幅增加。

Turning to the outlook. Global grain and oilseed inventories were well below historical average levels entering 2022, and the conflict in Ukraine has led to further tightening of supplies. Corn, soybean and wheat futures prices are 50% to 90% above the 10-year average and are trading at elevated levels on a multiyear basis. Prospective crop margins are significantly above historical average levels as the increase in revenues from higher crop prices has more than exceeded the projected increase in input costs. Weather permitting, we expect planted acreage to increase in the key agricultural regions in which we operate with the strong incentives for growers to maximize production. The North American spring planting season is behind the historical average pace, but there is still time to get the crop in the ground, and our retail network is well positioned to deliver in a compressed season. We are seeing strong demand in the regions where planting has progressed and have all-time high customer prepayments on account, which is a good indicator of grower intent.

轉向前景。進入 2022 年，全球糧食和油籽庫存遠低於歷史平均水平，而烏克蘭的衝突導致供應進一步收緊。玉米、大豆和小麥期貨價格比 10 年平均水平高出 50% 至 90%，並且在多年的基礎上處於較高水平。由於作物價格上漲帶來的收入增長超過了投入成本的預計增長，因此預期作物利潤率大大高於歷史平均水平。在天氣允許的情況下，我們預計在我們經營的主要農業區域的種植面積將增加，並強烈激勵種植者最大限度地提高產量。北美春季播種季節落後於歷史平均速度，但仍有時間將作物播種到地裡，我們的零售網絡已做好在壓縮季節交貨的準備。我們看到種植業取得進展的地區需求強勁，客戶預付款項創歷史新高，這是種植者意圖的一個很好的指標。

Financial sanctions and other restrictions imposed on Russia and Belarus have constrained potash supply with minimal exports from this region reported since early March. These 2 countries represent approximately 40% of global potash exports, and there is limited available production capacity in other regions to help fill this supply gap. Therefore, we expect global potash shipments will decline to between 60 million and 65 million tonnes in 2022, and we assume a wider-than-normal range given the level of supply uncertainty from Eastern Europe. Nutrien expects to ship record potash volumes between 14.5 million to 15.1 million tonnes, with most of the growth projected in offshore markets. We expect nitrogen markets to remain strong through 2022 due to lower Russian exports and volatile European gas prices that are currently setting the floor for ammonia and urea prices. Chinese urea exports have been restricted in the first half of 2022, and we believe there is potential for restrictions in the second half if the government intends on maintaining the current discount for Chinese domestic prices compared to other global markets.

對俄羅斯和白俄羅斯實施的金融制裁和其他限制限制了鉀肥供應，據報導，自 3 月初以來該地區的出口量極少。這兩個國家約佔全球鉀肥出口的 40%，而其他地區的可用產能有限，無法幫助填補這一供應缺口。因此，我們預計 2022 年全球鉀肥出貨量將下降至 6,000 萬噸至 6,500 萬噸之間，鑑於東歐供應的不確定性水平，我們假設該範圍將超出正常範圍。 Nutrien 預計鉀肥出貨量將達到創紀錄的 1450 萬噸至 1510 萬噸，其中大部分增長預計在海上市場。我們預計，由於俄羅斯出口量下降和歐洲天然氣價格波動目前正在為氨和尿素價格設定下限，氮市場將在 2022 年保持強勁。中國尿素出口在 2022 年上半年受到限制，如果政府打算維持目前中國國內價格相對於其他全球市場的折扣，我們認為下半年可能會受到限制。

We are discussing these supply challenges in the context of 2022. However, we believe these issues could extend well beyond this year. Sanctions on Russia and Belarus have the potential to create more lasting changes to global trade patterns as customers prioritize reliability of supply. We anticipate volatility in global energy prices due to greater supply uncertainty from Russia. And we expect some delays in the development of a new capacity from this region as access to financing, equipment and other resources becomes more challenging. We will closely monitor global market developments as we assess opportunities to increase our potash production capability beyond 15 million tonnes. Increasing production on a sustained basis requires opening up new ground, installing additional equipment and infrastructure, hiring more people and securing outbound logistics. These are decisions that require careful planning as they have long-term impacts on our operations and our people.

我們正在討論 2022 年的這些供應挑戰。但是，我們相信這些問題可能會遠遠超出今年。隨著客戶優先考慮供應的可靠性，對俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的製裁有可能對全球貿易模式產生更持久的變化。由於俄羅斯供應的不確定性增加，我們預計全球能源價格將出現波動。我們預計，隨著融資、設備和其他資源的獲取變得更具挑戰性，該地區新產能的開發會出現一些延遲。在評估將鉀肥產能提高到 1500 萬噸以上的機會時，我們將密切關注全球市場發展。持續增加產量需要開闢新天地、安裝額外的設備和基礎設施、僱用更多的人員並確保出境物流的安全。這些決策需要仔細規劃，因為它們會對我們的運營和員工產生長期影響。

We intend to provide more details at our virtual investor update meeting on June 9. I will now turn it over to Pedro to review how we expect these market conditions to impact our 2022 guidance and our approach to capital allocation going forward. Pedro?

我們打算在 6 月 9 日的虛擬投資者更新會議上提供更多細節。我現在將把它交給佩德羅，以審查我們預計這些市場狀況將如何影響我們 2022 年的指導和我們未來的資本配置方法。佩德羅？

Thanks, Ken. Given the significant changes in market fundamentals, we have increased our 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $14.5 billion to $16.5 billion. At the midpoint, this represents a nearly 50% increase from our initial full year guidance in February. We expect earnings to be fairly evenly split between the first and second half of the year with the pace of planting and (inaudible) development to have some impact on the timing of earnings between quarters. We are projecting Retail adjusted EBITDA between $1.8 billion and $1.9 billion, and strop nutrient and crop protection margins are expected to be stronger than previously anticipated. Crop prices have risen materially since the beginning of the year, and we expect growers will be incentivized to maximize yields, which typically contributes to strong in-season demand for crop protection and specialty nutritional products. .

謝謝，肯。鑑於市場基本面發生重大變化，我們已將 2022 年調整後的 EBITDA 指引提高至 145 億美元至 165 億美元。在中點，這比我們 2 月份最初的全年指導增加了近 50%。我們預計今年上半年和下半年的收益將相當平均地分配，種植和（聽不清）發展的步伐將對季度之間的收益時間產生一些影響。我們預計零售調整後的 EBITDA 將在 18 億美元至 19 億美元之間，而 strop 營養和作物保護利潤率預計將高於之前的預期。自今年年初以來，農作物價格大幅上漲，我們預計種植者將受到激勵以最大限度地提高產量，這通常有助於對農作物保護和特殊營養產品的旺季需求。 .

Similar to previous years, we expect 60% to 65% of Retail's adjusted EBITDA will be generated in the second quarter. We significantly increased our Ponash adjusted EBITDA guidance due to the expectation for higher realized prices and increased sales volumes. Cost of goods sold per ton are expected to increase in 2022 due primarily to higher royalties, which are directly tied to selling prices. Excluding the impact of royalties, natural gas and carbon taxes, we expect considerable cash costs to be comparable with the previous years as higher production volumes offset inflation. Our increase in nitrogen adjusted EBITDA guidance reflects higher global benchmark prices and a very competitive cost position compared to producers in Europe. We lower our nitrogen sales volume expectation due to the plant outages that occurred in Q1. We are taking a number of actions to enhance plant reliability, including incremental investments to protect our sites from severe weather events and expect higher operating rates over the remainder of 2022.

與往年類似，我們預計零售業調整後 EBITDA 的 60% 至 65% 將在第二季度產生。由於預期更高的實現價格和增加的銷量，我們顯著提高了波納什調整後的 EBITDA 指導。預計 2022 年每噸商品的銷售成本將增加，這主要是由於與銷售價格直接相關的特許權使用費增加。排除特許權使用費、天然氣和碳稅的影響，我們預計可觀的現金成本將與前幾年相當，因為更高的產量抵消了通貨膨脹。與歐洲生產商相比，我們對氮調整 EBITDA 指導的增加反映了更高的全球基準價格和極具競爭力的成本地位。由於第一季度的工廠停產，我們下調了氮肥銷量預期。我們正在採取一系列措施來提高工廠的可靠性，包括增加投資以保護我們的工廠免受惡劣天氣事件的影響，並預計在 2022 年剩餘時間內實現更高的開工率。

We expect to generate $10.5 billion to $11 billion in cash from operating activities, assuming a cash conversion ratio of approximately 70% at the midpoint of our 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance range. This represents a slightly lower conversion rate that we assume in February as the increase in input prices is expected to translate into greater working capital requirements in this period. The majority of our cash flow is expected to be generated in the second and the fourth quarters due to the seasonal working capital profile of Retail.

假設我們 2022 年調整後 EBITDA 指導範圍的中點現金轉換率約為 70%，我們預計將從經營活動中產生 105 億美元至 110 億美元的現金。這表示我們在 2 月份假設的轉換率略低，因為預計投入價格的上漲將在此期間轉化為更高的營運資金需求。由於零售業的季節性營運資金狀況，我們的大部分現金流預計將在第二和第四季度產生。

Our priorities for investment capital remain very consistent with our long-term strategy and what we communicated in February. However, given the potential for increased cash flow, we are evaluating the viability to accelerate a few high-return growth opportunities. We announced a 1 million tonne increase to our potash production capability in March, which will require a small incremental capital investments for mine phasing equipment and mine development. As Ken already mentioned, we are closely looking at the potential to further ramp our potash production capability above 15 million tonnes.

我們的投資資本優先事項與我們的長期戰略以及我們在 2 月份的溝通內容非常一致。然而，鑑於增加現金流的潛力，我們正在評估加速一些高回報增長機會的可行性。我們在 3 月份宣布將鉀肥產能提高 100 萬噸，這將需要少量增量資本投資用於礦山分階段設備和礦山開發。正如 Ken 已經提到的，我們正在密切關注將我們的鉀肥產能進一步提高到 1500 萬噸以上的潛力。

We are evaluating opportunities across our nitrogen business that would enhance the product mix and improve the environmental footprint of our facilities, including expanding our leading low-carbon ammonia position.

我們正在評估我們氮業務的機會，這些機會將增強產品組合併改善我們設施的環境足跡，包括擴大我們在低碳氨領域的領先地位。

In Retail, there is a strong pipeline of acquisition opportunities in Brazil and the U.S., and we will maintain a disciplined approach as we evaluate these opportunities.

在零售業，巴西和美國擁有強大的收購機會渠道，我們將在評估這些機會時保持嚴謹的態度。

In terms of capital -- in terms of investment capital, our focus is on initiatives that enhance our proprietary product business and digital capabilities, which are key drivers of Retail organic growth. We committed to a minimum of $2 billion in share repurchases in 2022. And year-to-date, we have allocated nearly $740 million, repurchasing approximately 9 million shares at an average price of around $81 per share. Given the strength of our projected cash flow, we believe there is potential for additional shareholder returns as the year progresses.

在資本方面——在投資資本方面，我們的重點是增強我們的專有產品業務和數字能力的舉措，這是零售有機增長的關鍵驅動力。我們承諾在 2022 年至少進行 20 億美元的股票回購。年初至今，我們已分配近 7.4 億美元，以每股約 81 美元的平均價格回購了約 900 萬股股票。鑑於我們預計現金流的強度，我們相信隨著時間的推移，股東回報有可能增加。

We will provide a more in-depth update on our capital allocation plans at the Investor Update Meeting on June 9. I will now pass it back to Ken for final comments.

我們將在 6 月 9 日的投資者更新會議上提供有關我們資本分配計劃的更深入的更新。我現在將其轉回給 Ken 以徵求最終意見。

Thanks, Pedro. The importance of global agriculture to help sustainably feed a growing world has never been clear. It is increasingly apparent that the supply issues currently impacting agriculture and fertilizer markets could last well beyond 2022. Nutrien is responding in the near term by utilizing the full extent of our integrated sustainable agriculture platform to provide customers with the products they need for the upcoming growing season. And we are thoroughly evaluating our longer-term plans to ensure we deliver the greatest value for all our stakeholders. I'm joined today by members of our leadership team, and we would be happy to take your questions. .

謝謝，佩德羅。全球農業對於幫助可持續地養活不斷增長的世界的重要性從未明確。越來越明顯的是，目前影響農業和化肥市場的供應問題可能會持續到 2022 年之後。Nutrien 正在通過利用我們綜合可持續農業平台的全部範圍為客戶提供他們即將到來的增長所需的產品，從而在短期內做出回應季節。我們正在徹底評估我們的長期計劃，以確保我們為所有利益相關者提供最大的價值。今天，我們領導團隊的成員加入了我的行列，我們很樂意回答您的問題。 .

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from the line of Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets. .

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Andrew Wong。 .

So the sanctions on Belarus and Russia. They're probably the biggest change that we've seen in the potash market structure since the breakup of BPC, almost 10 years ago. and these effects seem to be relatively long lasting. So can you just talk about how the Belarus-Russia situation changes your longer-term view on the market? And I'd be curious, Ken, you had a pretty good seat at Canpotex to kind of see some of the market changes over the past 5, 10 years. I'd be curious your thoughts on where we are going forward.

因此，對白俄羅斯和俄羅斯的製裁。這可能是我們在近 10 年前 BPC 解體以來在鉀肥市場結構中看到的最大變化。而且這些影響似乎比較持久。那麼您能否談談白俄羅斯-俄羅斯的局勢如何改變您對市場的長期看法？我很好奇，Ken，你在 Canpotex 有一個很好的席位，可以看到過去 5 年、10 年的一些市場變化。我很好奇你對我們前進方向的想法。

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. Yes. So absolutely, it is the case that we watched this terrible tragedy unfolds in Eastern Europe and thinking about people in the region every day. We are watching the impacts that sanctions are having first, as you mentioned, on Belarus and Russia as well. And while potash itself is not sanctioned in Russia, certainly, the enabling activities for export of anything out of Russia at the moment are challenged, whether it's banking or shipping or insurance and so on. So -- and then, of course, with Belarus, the sanctions were there prior to this conflict and having really no access to tidewater being shut off from the ports in Lithuania. So as these things have unfolded, as you say, Andrew, we're looking at duration and how long this might last in the longer-term implications for potash. And we're coming to the conclusion, as we said in the opening remarks, that these could last well beyond 2022, and hence, are looking at our own capabilities accordingly.

是的。謝謝，安德魯。是的。因此，絕對是，我們目睹了這場可怕的悲劇在東歐上演，每天都在想著該地區的人們。正如你所提到的，我們正在關注制裁首先對白俄羅斯和俄羅斯的影響。雖然鉀肥本身在俄羅斯並未受到製裁，但目前從俄羅斯出口任何東西的扶持活動都受到挑戰，無論是銀行、航運還是保險等等。所以——當然，對於白俄羅斯，制裁是在這場衝突之前就已經存在的，而且立陶宛的港口確實無法進入潮水。因此，正如你所說，安德魯，隨著這些事情的展開，我們正在研究持續時間以及這對鉀肥的長期影響可能持續多長時間。正如我們在開場白中所說，我們得出的結論是，這些可能會持續到 2022 年之後，因此，我們正在相應地審視我們自己的能力。

But I'll hand it over to Jason Newton, our Chief Economist, to just provide a little more color.

但我會把它交給我們的首席經濟學家傑森牛頓，以提供更多的色彩。

Yes. I think in terms of overall supply-demand impact, certainly, there's a really large potential for supply constraints in 2022 just given, as Ken mentioned, the restrictions on Belarusian shipment to tidewater and all of different sanctions impacting Russian production.

是的。我認為就整體供需影響而言，正如肯所說，鑑於白俄羅斯向潮水運輸的限制以及影響俄羅斯生產的所有不同製裁措施，2022 年供應限制的可能性確實很大。

In terms of quantifying the impact, if we compare to the sort of base operational capability in Belarus is around 13 million tonnes, operational capability in Russia around 15 million tonnes. We think Belarusian supplies will be down around 6 million to 8 million tonnes this year and Russia in the range of 2 million to 6 million tonnes this year. Going forward, it will take some time to rebuild those export capabilities. And we believe Belarus will continue to be most restricted going forward as they have the need to rebuild or build port capacity, which takes time especially in the face of sanctions. And then we also know that, that region makes up about 60% to 70% of the capacity additions that we expect to come forward over the next 5 years. And we believe those will also be delayed going forward. So in any case, we have a tighter supply-demand outlook going forward than we would have previously.

在量化影響方面，如果我們比較白俄羅斯的基礎運營能力約為 1300 萬噸，俄羅斯的運營能力約為 1500 萬噸。我們認為白俄羅斯今年的供應量將減少約 600 萬噸至 800 萬噸，俄羅斯今年的供應量將減少 200 萬噸至 600 萬噸。展望未來，重建這些出口能力需要一些時間。我們相信白俄羅斯將繼續受到最大的限制，因為他們需要重建或建設港口能力，這需要時間，尤其是在面臨制裁的情況下。然後我們還知道，該地區約占我們預計未來 5 年新增產能的 60% 至 70%。我們相信這些也將被推遲。因此，無論如何，我們未來的供需前景比以前更加緊張。

Yes. So thanks, Jason. And maybe just, Andrew, then finally, your question about Canpotex and that vantage point. It is the case that really growers around the world with what's happened with commodity prices are incentive to lay down appropriate crop nutrients. And then you layer on that some of the challenges that Jason just described and you can imagine that Canpotex, their phones are ringing as people look for alternative sources of supply. Could it be that global trade routes are disrupted? I think we're seeing that today. But suffice it to say that certainly, from a global demand perspective, Canpotex has homes for potash and for increased levels of potash. And that's what's driving, as we said in our opening comments, us looking at the potential to accelerate our ramp-up of potash production.

是的。所以謝謝，傑森。也許只是，安德魯，最後，你關於 Canpotex 和那個有利位置的問題。正是這種情況下，世界各地的真正種植者受到商品價格的影響，促使他們減少適當的作物養分。然後你將 Jason 剛剛描述的一些挑戰疊加起來，你可以想像 Canpotex，他們的手機正在響起，因為人們正在尋找替代的供應來源。會不會是全球貿易路線被打斷了？我想我們今天看到了。但可以肯定的是，從全球需求的角度來看，Canpotex 擁有鉀肥和鉀肥含量增加的家園。正如我們在開場評論中所說，這就是推動鉀肥生產的潛力。

Your next question is from the line of Chris Parkinson with Mizuho Securities.

您的下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的克里斯帕金森。

Just a quick corollary of that question. Just given the outlook and the potential longevity of the, let's say, the current situation and the shortfall, and even if growers in certain regions skip applications, presumably nutrients are still being removed from the soil on an annualized basis, there are a lot of things to consider. Very simple question. What will it take for you to eventually make a decision to ramp even further? I understand, obviously, there are economic considerations, longevity, so on and so forth. And the remainder of that question will be, I mean, who else even has the capacity to make a dent in that shortfall between 2022 and 2024? Is there anybody else that you could even remotely make a dent in that from your perspective?

只是這個問題的一個快速推論。只是考慮到前景和潛在壽命，比如說，目前的情況和短缺，即使某些地區的種植者跳過應用程序，大概每年仍會從土壤中去除養分，有很多要考慮的事情。很簡單的問題。您最終會做出什麼進一步決定？我明白，顯然，有經濟方面的考慮，壽命等等。剩下的問題是，我的意思是，還有誰有能力彌補 2022 年至 2024 年之間的缺口？從你的角度來看，還有其他人甚至可以遠程做出改變嗎？

Great. Thanks, Chris. Well, I'll start with the second question and just say that, no, it is going to be a challenge. If we believe these supply challenges are going to persist through 2022 and into 2023, if there was additional capacity to put in the market, it would already be there because the incentives are certainly there for a producer to produce. We'll also say that some of the new volumes that would have been coming -- would be coming to the market are out of that region, out of Russia and that's -- whether it's EuroChem or Belarus with their [Petroca] project. And we can imagine that those projects are also challenged today. So it's -- if we look at the ability to flex production, a lot of it resides with Nutrien. Hence, over the last 2 years, 70% of the new production that's come to the market has been from Nutrien and our ability to add 20% to our own production volumes over the last 2 years.

偉大的。謝謝，克里斯。好吧，我將從第二個問題開始，然後說，不，這將是一個挑戰。如果我們相信這些供應挑戰將持續到 2022 年到 2023 年，如果有更多的產能投放市場，那麼它已經存在了，因為生產商肯定會有生產的激勵措施。我們還會說，一些即將進入市場的新產量——將進入市場，來自該地區，來自俄羅斯——無論是 EuroChem 還是白俄羅斯的 [Petroca] 項目。我們可以想像，這些項目今天也面臨挑戰。所以它 - 如果我們看一下靈活生產的能力，其中很多都與 Nutrien 相關。因此，在過去 2 年中，進入市場的 70% 的新產品來自 Nutrien，我們有能力在過去 2 年增加 20% 的產量。

With respect to your question, what does it take to ramp further? Well, of course, we're looking at that right now. But it goes back to just us assessing the duration of this impact and what it will actually impact on the market in terms of trade patterns, and ultimately, restrictions potentially to certain parts of the world, and we know that's going to happen this year, hence, our 60 million to 65 million tonne guidance range where we expect there will be demand rationing, much different than demand destruction, but demand rationing. So we -- there is an acceleration case for our volumes. We're looking at that today. We will have more to talk about at our Investor Day on June 9. But yes, looking at that accelerated case in the context of a drawn-out challenges from production from Eastern Europe.

關於你的問題，進一步提升需要什麼？好吧，當然，我們現在正在研究這個。但它可以追溯到我們評估這種影響的持續時間以及它在貿易模式方面對市場的實際影響，以及最終可能對世界某些地區的限制，我們知道這將在今年發生，因此，我們預計在 6000 萬至 6500 萬噸的指導範圍內將進行需求配給，這與需求破壞大不相同，而是需求配給。所以我們 - 我們的交易量有一個加速案例。我們今天正在研究這個。我們將在 6 月 9 日的投資者日上討論更多內容。但是，是的，在東歐生產面臨長期挑戰的背景下，看看這個加速的案例。

Your next question is from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. .

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson。 .

Maybe just continuing on that same line of questioning. Could you just talk about maybe internally and within Canpotex and in the broader North American logistics system, where you see kind of the bigger bottlenecks to increasing capacity? Obviously, there's about 3 million tonnes of hoisting and processing capacity that's still idled and (inaudible) has a bunch of it and some of the other mines as well. But as you think about beyond that, whether it's ports, whether it's railcars, whether you think it's big restraints around new mining machines, just help us think about what the key bottlenecks from a time perspective would be and where the bigger capital kind of requirements would come to think about the 3 million tonnes that you have still potential internally built and even beyond that?

也許只是繼續同樣的問題。您能否談談在 Canpotex 內部以及更廣泛的北美物流系統中，您認為增加產能存在更大的瓶頸？顯然，仍有大約 300 萬噸的起重和加工能力處於閒置狀態，並且（聽不清）其中有很多，還有一些其他礦山。但是，除此之外，無論是港口，鐵路車輛，還是新礦機的巨大限制，都可以幫助我們從時間的角度思考關鍵瓶頸是什麼，以及更大的資本需求在哪裡是否會考慮您仍然有潛力在內部建造的 300 萬噸，甚至更多？

Great. Thanks, Adam. And it's a great question because we obviously look at this. Our capacity is not just at the mines, but right through to the discharge ports for the customer. And so we're in the bottlenecks, and today, we would say that we're looking very closely at long lead time items from a procurement perspective. And so that would be things like mining machines, which in order to accelerate ramp-up, we would need to put mining machines on order. And the downstream of that, we would say that with conveyance we have to put in place. But the rest of it, we have built that capacity exactly as you say, capacity advance and our other mines where we have the infrastructure in place. We have the 12 shafts sunk, and we have mill capacity to ramp up production as well. So capital associated with production at the mine, but downstream of the mining machine is immaterial.

偉大的。謝謝，亞當。這是一個很好的問題，因為我們顯然會看到這一點。我們的產能不僅在礦山，而且一直到客戶的卸貨港。所以我們處於瓶頸之中，今天，我們會說我們正在從採購的角度非常密切地關注長交貨期的項目。所以這就是像礦機這樣的東西，為了加速產量，我們需要把礦機整理好。在其下游，我們會說，我們必須通過運輸來實施。但其餘部分，我們已經完全按照您所說的那樣建立了產能，產能提升以及我們擁有基礎設施的其他礦山。我們有 12 根軸沉沒，我們也有產能來提高產量。因此，與礦山生產相關的資本，但在採礦機器的下游是無關緊要的。

As we look beyond the mine gate and downstream from there, yes, it's true that cycle times are going to require more railcars and we're going to require port capacity. The good thing is that Canpotex has invested at the Neptune facility, Portland facility and our East Coast facility in New Brunswick, which gives them sufficient port capacity today to wrap up. So it really becomes a discussion about ordering railcars, which we can do.

當我們從礦門往下游看時，是的，循環時間確實需要更多的軌道車，我們需要港口容量。好消息是，Canpotex 已經投資了 Neptune 設施、波特蘭設施和我們在新不倫瑞克省的東海岸設施，這使他們今天有足夠的港口容量來收尾。所以它真的變成了關於訂購軌道車的討論，我們可以做到。

And then I would say with respect to our North American distribution, we feel very well positioned there. We have our Hamman facility. We have our over 300 warehouses across North America, and again, railcars to get it there. So as we ramp up production, North American supply chain intact we'll be looking to offshore. But by Canpotex, we certainly see a path there.

然後我會說，關於我們在北美的分銷，我們在那裡感覺非常好。我們有我們的哈曼設施。我們在北美擁有 300 多個倉庫，並且還有軌道車可以將其運到那裡。因此，隨著我們提高產量，北美供應鏈完好無損，我們將尋求離岸。但是通過 Canpotex，我們當然看到了一條道路。

Your next question is from the line of Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

I had a couple of questions, a 2-parter. Your Canpotex partner gave some guidance overnight that they're expecting about a $50 a tonne realized price increase in Q2 sequentially but in Q1, you obviously have a lot of pricing that's linked together. So first, I wanted to see, is that kind of what you're guiding to as well in Q2?

我有幾個問題，一個 2-parter。您的 Canpotex 合作夥伴隔夜給出了一些指導，他們預計第二季度的實際價格將連續上漲約 50 美元，但在第一季度，您顯然有很多相關的定價。所以首先，我想看看，這也是你在第二季度的指導嗎？

And then as a second part of that, in your midpoint guidance for EBITDA for the year, are you assuming that current potash prices stay where they are for the year? Or what are you assuming in the base case?

然後作為第二部分，在您對今年 EBITDA 的中點指導中，您是否假設當前的鉀肥價格保持在今年的水平？或者你在基本情況下假設什麼？

Yes. So with respect to our margins compared to what Mosaic might have said on their call, I mean, I think it's fair to say that out of Canpotex, you can expect something similar. And then in North America, we would go our own way. And so -- and I wouldn't talk about that because that's confidential. But yes, I think generally, Joel, you can say that it would be similar.

是的。因此，就我們的利潤率而言，與 Mosaic 在電話會議上可能所說的相比，我的意思是，我認為可以公平地說，在 Canpotex 之外，你可以期待類似的事情。然後在北美，我們會走自己的路。所以——我不會談論這個，因為這是保密的。但是，是的，我認為一般來說，喬爾，你可以說它會是相似的。

With respect to our pricing assumptions and what we're saying for the midpoint of EBITDA guidance, I'll hand it over to Jason Newton.

關於我們的定價假設和我們所說的 EBITDA 指導的中點，我將把它交給 Jason Newton。

Joe, I think you've probably read fairly closely into where the midpoint of the guidance would be reflected would be based on prices remaining relatively in line with where current prices are.

喬，我認為您可能已經相當仔細地閱讀了指導中點的反映位置，這將基於與當前價格保持相對一致的價格。

Your next question is from the line of Jacob Bout with CIBC.

您的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Jacob Bout。

Going back to late 2008, 2009, you used to talk about being able to skip a year for potash application. What is your sense of the amount of potash and soils in your key markets like U.S., Brazil, China and India versus historical? Maybe you can comment on where you see inventory levels right now in those key markets as well.

回到 2008 年末，2009 年，你曾經談到可以跳過一年的鉀肥應用。您對美國、巴西、中國和印度等主要市場的鉀肥和土壤數量與歷史數據有何看法？也許您也可以評論一下您現在在這些關鍵市場中看到的庫存水平。

Great. Thanks, Jacob. Well, I would say that given the price of commodities, and certainly, the most recent price increases, growers haven't set a maximized yield. And so as such, we would say that nutrients and crop oils and depending on region would be sort of average to below average levels. And again, we would say that growers are heavily incented today to lay down the appropriate crop nutrients.

偉大的。謝謝，雅各布。好吧，我想說的是，鑑於商品的價格，當然還有最近的價格上漲，種植者並沒有設定一個最大化的產量。因此，我們會說養分和作物油以及取決於地區的平均水平到低於平均水平。再說一次，我們會說，今天的種植者被強烈地激勵著放下適當的作物養分。

With respect to inventories, also an important question, Jacob, we would say that today entering the year, inventory levels are sort of average or below-average historical levels. But it is the case now. And certainly, it's true for potash. With the North American spring season delayed, we still have time to get that crop in the ground, obviously, and we expect those inventory levels to come down. And that's true internationally as well. If we look China, Southeast Asia and Brazil entering the year with reasonable inventories, but expecting those to come down and for potash, especially true given that we are just now starting to see the impact of this conflict in Ukraine. Obviously, Russia was delivering potash out of the region up until the latter part of February. But again, now some of these challenges that are persisting. So we expect inventories certainly for potash to come down and be pressured then for the balance of 2022.

關於庫存，也是一個重要的問題，Jacob，我們會說今天進入這一年，庫存水平處於平均水平或低於歷史平均水平。但現在是這樣。當然，鉀肥也是如此。隨著北美春季的推遲，顯然我們仍有時間將這種作物收成地下，我們預計這些庫存水平會下降。這在國際上也是如此。如果我們展望中國、東南亞和巴西進入這一年時的庫存合理，但預計庫存會下降和鉀肥，尤其是考慮到我們剛剛開始看到這場衝突對烏克蘭的影響。顯然，直到 2 月下旬，俄羅斯一直在將鉀肥運出該地區。但同樣，現在這些挑戰中的一些仍然存在。因此，我們預計鉀肥的庫存肯定會下降，並在 2022 年餘下時間受到壓力。

Your next question is from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Just a question on Retail as it relates to, I guess, 2 things. One, how is Retail going to position itself for inventories at the end of the North American season? And kind of also, I guess, asking about how you think summer fill will progress in the different nutrients. And then if you could also help us with why crop protection margins you anticipate improving from here.

只是一個關於零售的問題，因為它涉及到兩件事。一，在北美季末，Retail 將如何定位庫存？而且，我想，還有一點，詢問你認為夏季填充物在不同營養素方面的進展情況。然後，如果您還可以幫助我們了解您預計從這裡開始改善的作物保護利潤率的原因。

Yes. So thank you, Vincent. And yes, I mean, with respect to inventories, that's something that we're watching very closely at the moment and watching progression -- planting progression throughout North America. We entered the season with inventories the way that we would in previous years. And as Jeff Tarsi keeps saying, intending to end the spring season with inventory levels low. But Jeff, can I pass it over to you for the discussion about inventories and crop protection margins?

是的。所以謝謝你，文森特。是的，我的意思是，就庫存而言，這是我們目前正在密切關注並觀察進展的事情——在整個北美種植進展。我們像往年一樣帶著庫存進入了這個季節。正如 Jeff Tarsi 所說，打算以低庫存水平結束春季。但是傑夫，我可以把它交給你討論庫存和作物保護利潤嗎？

Sure. Sure, Ken. And yes, I'd reiterate what Ken just says. I can't think of any year that I wouldn't go into that I wouldn't plan on trying to target myself to being near empty once we come into that June and July time frame across all of my nutrients. And then, obviously, once we get into that July, August time frame, we'll start positioning ourselves again for what we anticipate to be another strong fall market as well. And look, we try to position ourselves from an inventory standpoint in season. We always try to position ourselves to be in as close to empty as we can, whether it's crop nutrient seed or crop protection.

當然。當然，肯。是的，我會重申肯剛才所說的話。我想不出任何一年我都不會進入，一旦我們進入我所有營養的六月和七月時間框架，我就不會計劃嘗試讓自己接近空虛。然後，顯然，一旦我們進入 7 月、8 月的時間框架，我們將再次開始為我們預期的另一個強勁的秋季市場定位。看，我們試圖從季節的庫存角度定位自己。無論是作物營養種子還是作物保護，我們總是試圖將自己置於盡可能接近空白的位置。

I think your second question was in reference to our strong crop protection margins and I guess I'll start off addressing that is that last fall, we anticipated that there would be a tremendous amount of supply constraints around numerous crop protection products. And so we started building our inventory last fall, anticipating that these supply constraints will be real coming into 2022. As we positioned ourselves early and build inventory, Vincent, we build inventory at some pretty attractive cost positions as well. And as you saw in the first quarter, we had a pretty significant improvement on crop protection. It's probably the highlight of our first quarter. I think we're about a 400 basis point increase in margins there. And a lot of that is we've got some growers that are buying earlier as well, anticipating some of these shortages and our people have done a good job of moving our cost up as our cost on those crop protection products have increased as well. And we would expect to see that continue somewhat throughout the 2022 spring and into the second quarter.

我認為您的第二個問題是關於我們強大的作物保護利潤，我想我會開始解決這個問題，去年秋天，我們預計眾多作物保護產品將面臨大量供應限制。因此，我們從去年秋天開始建立庫存，預計這些供應限制將在 2022 年真正實現。文森特，當我們提前定位並建立庫存時，我們也在一些非常有吸引力的成本位置建立庫存。正如您在第一季度看到的那樣，我們在作物保護方面取得了相當大的進步。這可能是我們第一季度的亮點。我認為我們的利潤率大約增加了 400 個基點。其中很大一部分是我們有一些種植者提前購買，預計其中一些短缺，我們的員工在提高成本方面做得很好，因為我們在這些作物保護產品上的成本也增加了。我們預計這種情況會在整個 2022 年春季和第二季度繼續保持下去。

Your next question is from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Ben Isaacson。

I just want to come back to the Russian potash situation. So we're seeing Russian potash show up not just in India and China, but we've seen it come to the U.S., Europe, Brazil, Southeast Asia. And of course, while there was significant disruption to Russian fertilizer trade flow in March, can you talk about what trade flow looks like coming out of Russia over the last 2, 3, 4 weeks? Do you see Russian potash coming out at a rate of 50% 2/3, 75% of normal. I know you spoke about the year potentially being down 2 million to 6 million tonnes. But can you just talk about what you're seeing right now in terms of what's coming out of the market?

我只想回到俄羅斯鉀肥的情況。因此，我們看到俄羅斯鉀肥不僅出現在印度和中國，而且還出現在美國、歐洲、巴西和東南亞。當然，雖然 3 月份俄羅斯化肥貿易流量受到嚴重干擾，但您能否談談過去 2、3、4 週俄羅斯的貿易流量如何？您是否看到俄羅斯鉀肥以 50% 2/3、75% 的正常速度流出。我知道你談到今年可能會減少 200 萬噸至 600 萬噸。但是你能不能談談你現在看到的市場上出現的情況？

Yes. Thanks, Ben. So we are seeing an impact, an on-the-ground impact at the moment, exports coming out of Russia. And while -- unlike the Belarusians, perhaps the Russians do have some access to markets. And so an example of that would be rail into China, which we expect to continue through 2022 and that could be, over the course of the year, maybe 1.5 million tonnes. So an example of certainly outlet for the Russians. They have their own domestic demand, which they're satisfying. But I'd say at the moment, Ben, what we're seeing is an impact across export markets that the Russians need to access by tidewater, about 0.5 million tonnes a month at the moment is what we're seeing. And so whether that persists through 2022, it remains to be seen. But as you say, in the last month or so, what are we seeing on the ground, that's what we're seeing. And that's helping to inform the ranges that Jason Newton talked about earlier.

是的。謝謝，本。因此，我們正在看到影響，目前是實地影響，來自俄羅斯的出口。雖然 - 與白俄羅斯人不同，也許俄羅斯人確實有一些市場准入。因此，一個例子就是進入中國的鐵路，我們預計這一趨勢將持續到 2022 年，並且在這一年中可能達到 150 萬噸。因此，俄羅斯人肯定是出路的一個例子。他們有自己的國內需求，他們對此感到滿意。但我現在想說的是，本，我們看到的是對俄羅斯人需要通過潮水進入的出口市場的影響，目前我們看到的是每月大約 50 萬噸。因此，這種情況是否會持續到 2022 年，還有待觀察。但正如你所說，在過去一個月左右的時間裡，我們在實地看到了什麼，這就是我們所看到的。這有助於了解 Jason Newton 之前談到的範圍。

Your next question is from Michael Tupholme with TD Securities. .

您的下一個問題來自道明證券的 Michael Tuholme。 .

Another question around the potential to accelerate your ramp-up of potash production beyond the 15 million tons. So you talked about some of the bottlenecks associated with bringing on additional production earlier in the call. Wondering though, if you were to decide to move forward, can you talk about how quickly you could bring on additional production and how we should think about CapEx associated with incremental tonnage?

另一個關於加快鉀肥產量超過 1500 萬噸的潛力的問題。所以你在電話會議的早些時候談到了與增加生產相關的一些瓶頸。不過想知道，如果你決定繼續前進，你能談談你能以多快的速度增加產量，以及我們應該如何考慮與增加噸位相關的資本支出？

Yes. Thanks, Michael. And so yes, I mean, again, we're looking at that -- all of this at the moment, and again, expect to talk about it in more detail at our Investor Day in June 9. But suffice it to say that our ramp up to 18 million tonnes, we can bring it on in increments of production and increments of capital with off-ramps for some of this capital. So that's the path that we're plotting at the moment or testing to plot the moment and testing our assumptions around all that. I'll just say that, certainly, as we think about that profile for volume increases, we're talking in a few years, not decades or anything like that.

是的。謝謝，邁克爾。所以是的，我的意思是，我們再次關注這一點——目前所有這些，再一次，期待在 6 月 9 日的投資者日更詳細地討論它。但只要說我們的增加至 1800 萬噸，我們可以通過增加生產和增加資本來實現，並為其中的一些資本提供出口。所以這就是我們目前正在繪製的路徑或測試以繪製時刻並圍繞所有這些測試我們的假設。我只想說，當然，當我們考慮到銷量增加的情況時，我們談論的是幾年，而不是幾十年或類似的時間。

With respect to the capital associated with it, again, we're looking at that. But I would say that given the off-ramps and capital as we move up our production volumes, it's not that it's immaterial, but it's certainly a highly economic production in the context of where we see the -- to potentially see the market going balance of 2022 and over to 2023.

關於與之相關的資本，我們再次關注這一點。但我想說的是，考慮到我們提高產量時的出口和資本，這並不是說它不重要，但在我們看到的背景下，它肯定是一種高度經濟的生產——可能會看到市場趨於平衡2022 年至 2023 年。

Your next question is from Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的史蒂夫·伯恩。

Yes. So I'd like to drill into the Retail business here. Just curious what you're seeing in that business in terms of grower application rates so far this spring. Has there been much of a cutback in P and K application rates or growers using more of your variable rate technology to only put it down where they really need it? So what's the magnitude of the drop there? And any comments about the sharp drop in NOLA urea? Is that just because the channel -- does it need any more and thus, it's kind of irrelevant?

是的。所以我想在這裡深入研究零售業務。只是好奇你在今年春天到目前為止在種植者申請率方面看到的情況。 P 和 K 的施用量是否大幅減少，或者種植者使用更多的可變施用量技術，只將其放在他們真正需要的地方？那麼那裡的跌幅有多大？對 NOLA 尿素急劇下降有何評論？這僅僅是因為渠道——它是否需要更多，因此有點無關緊要？

Great. Thanks, Steve. And so yes, with respect to the first question on Retail, the short answer is no. The growers, again, given the backdrop in the ag fundamentals, there are strong incentives there. But I'll start with Jeff Tarsi to provide some more color on that one. And then with respect to question about nitrogen, we'll pass it over to Raef. So Jeff?

偉大的。謝謝，史蒂夫。所以是的，關於零售的第一個問題，簡短的回答是否定的。再一次，鑑於農業基本面的背景，種植者有很強的激勵措施。但我將從 Jeff Tarsi 開始，為它提供更多顏色。然後關於氮的問題，我們將把它交給Raef。那麼傑夫?

Yes, sure. And yes, to answer your question and follow-up with Ken's comments there, number one, you mentioned variable rate. And Steve, we don't do -- really today, we don't do a lot of blanket rates of -- in P&K. A lot of it or the majority of it is variable rate. Most all of our application equipment today is set up where we bearable rate. And as you will know, we do a lot of it -- we do extensive soil testing and running that analysis through Waypoint Analytical to come back with a proper prescription for nutrient needs. And so from that standpoint, as Ken said, we haven't seen a cutback in rates. Obviously, last fall, we had a tremendous run last fall and that's probably what slowed some things up in the first quarter a bit. And if I look back at those rates last fall, they were very strong rates. And I think in the environment that we're in today, Steve, these growers are going to give themselves every opportunity to maximize out on yield. We also think that once we get in season, we think our older nutritional products are going to be at a very high demand, and we've really stepped up production in those areas as well because we think these growers will spoonfeed this crop throughout the season. We've seen a lot of demand for our (inaudible) type pop-up products as well, Steve. So I think we're still in a very strong environment. Unlike anybody else here, I'm ready to see this crop get put in the ground. And it looks like next week, talking to our climatologist, looks very strong but we're going to be able to make a lot of planning progress going into next week. So we're anxious to get that started and get things going.

是的，當然。是的，為了回答你的問題並跟進 Ken 的評論，第一，你提到了可變利率。史蒂夫，我們在 P&K 中沒有 - 真的，今天，我們沒有做很多一攬子利率。其中很多或大部分是可變利率。我們今天的大多數應用設備都設置在我們可以承受的價格。如您所知，我們做了很多工作——我們進行了廣泛的土壤測試，並通過 Waypoint Analytical 進行分析，以便為營養需求提供適當的處方。因此，正如肯所說，從這個角度來看，我們還沒有看到利率下降。顯然，去年秋天，我們在去年秋天取得了巨大的進步，這可能是第一季度有些事情放慢了速度的原因。如果我回顧去年秋天的這些利率，它們是非常強勁的利率。我認為在我們今天所處的環境中，史蒂夫，這些種植者將給自己每一個機會來最大化產量。我們還認為，一旦進入季節，我們認為我們的舊營養產品的需求將會非常高，而且我們也確實增加了這些地區的生產，因為我們認為這些種植者將在整個季節。我們也看到了對我們（聽不清）類型彈出式產品的大量需求，Steve。所以我認為我們仍然處於一個非常強大的環境中。與這裡的其他人不同，我已經準備好看到這種作物被種入地下。看起來下週，與我們的氣候學家交談，看起來非常強大，但我們將能夠在下週取得很多計劃進展。所以我們急於開始並讓事情順利進行。

And now Ken, I'll go back to you on the urea question.

現在，Ken，我會回到你的尿素問題上。

Great. Thank you, Jeff, and Raef, over to you.

偉大的。謝謝你，傑夫和雷夫，謝謝你。

Thanks, Ken. So Steve, look, let's differentiate between some short-term occurrences in the market versus the overall supply and demand situation. If you think about all of the ammonia -- all of the nitrogen products, ammonia, urea, UAN, global supply and demand, the global supply is tight. I think we'll see continued solid pricing through the rest of the year for all of those products. And the problem with urea at the minute, of course, and my colleagues have mentioned this is the slow start to the season with crop pricing where it is, farmers are going to try and maximize yield here. They're not going to skimp on the nitrogen products, has a latent demand there for it. We just need to see the seed go in the ground and the season start, and then we'll see the products start moving and we'll see a correction upwards to recent pricing.

謝謝，肯。所以史蒂夫，看，讓我們區分市場中的一些短期事件與整體供需情況。如果你考慮所有的氨——所有的氮產品，氨，尿素，UAN，全球供需，全球供應很緊張。我認為我們將在今年剩餘時間內看到所有這些產品的持續穩定定價。當然，目前尿素的問題，我的同事們已經提到，這是本季開始緩慢，作物定價在哪裡，農民將在這裡嘗試最大化產量。他們不會吝嗇氮產品，對它有潛在的需求。我們只需要看到種子落地，季節開始，然後我們會看到產品開始移動，我們會看到最近的價格向上修正。

Your next question is from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

If it turns out that potash demand is 60 million to 65 million tonnes for a couple of years, but assuming that capacity from Russia and Belarus can come back online, what do you think demand would be after a period like that? Would we go back to 70 million tonnes? Or would it be more elevated?

如果事實證明鉀肥需求在幾年內為 6000 萬至 6500 萬噸，但假設俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的產能能夠恢復正常，那麼您認為在這樣的時期之後需求會是多少？我們會回到7000萬噸嗎？還是會更高？

And secondly, why do you think the Chinese have constricted phosphate export so much? They don't need to constrict it that much to supply more phosphate to their internal farmers.

其次，您認為中國為何如此限制磷酸鹽出口？他們不需要把它限制得那麼大，就可以為他們內部的農民提供更多的磷酸鹽。

Yes. Great. Thanks, Jeff. I'll pass that one over to Jason Newton and provide some color on both the phosphate and the potash questions.

是的。偉大的。謝謝，傑夫。我將把那個交給 Jason Newton 並提供一些關於磷酸鹽和鉀鹽問題的顏色。

Sure. On the potash side, if we look at where trend potash shipments would be this year, they're probably actually in line with where they were (inaudible) had a really strong year of demand. So if we were unconstrained in terms of supply, we'd probably be in that 70 million tonne range in 2022. So looking forward at 1.5 million to 2 million tonnes per year, you're moving out to sort of 74 million, 75 million tonne mark in the next 4 to 5 years, which, I think, regardless of what scenario unfolds, it's likely to continue to be a supply-constrained environment in that period of time. We've looked at a number of scenarios and different ramp-ups and different changes over the next 4 to 5 years. And in most cases, you're getting back to the current trend type levels of demand in '24, '25, just given the supply constraints in the market.

當然。在鉀肥方面，如果我們看一下今年鉀肥出貨量的趨勢，它們實際上可能與需求非常強勁的一年（聽不清）一致。因此，如果我們在供應方面不受限制，到 2022 年我們可能會在 7000 萬噸的範圍內。因此，展望每年 150 萬噸到 200 萬噸，你將移出到大約 7400 萬到 7500 萬噸未來 4 到 5 年的噸位大關，我認為，無論發生什麼情況，在這段時間內，它都可能繼續成為供應受限的環境。我們已經研究了未來 4 到 5 年的許多情景和不同的提升和不同的變化。在大多數情況下，只要考慮到市場供應的限制，你會在 24 年和 25 年回到當前趨勢類型的需求水平。

And then on the phosphate question, the Chinese government over the last year or so has definitely taken -- put a higher priority on domestic food production and food security and maintaining low fertilizer prices for domestic farmers. And so while they have definitely sufficient supplies. They exported 10 million tonnes of DAP and MAP in 2021. Still, we'd expect they'll export somewhere between 6 million and 7 million tonnes of DAP and MAP this year. But there's a big discount in the domestic market for both phosphate fertilizers and for urea versus where the international market is. And as we look toward the second half of this year, that is something to watch is, I think the government of China is likely to want to continue to maintain affordable low fertilizer prices for Chinese growers. And with that disconnect between domestic prices and international prices, there may continue to be restrictions on exports just to keep domestic market disconnected.

然後在磷酸鹽問題上，中國政府在過去一年左右的時間裡明確地採取了——更加重視國內糧食生產和糧食安全，並為國內農民維持較低的化肥價格。所以雖然他們有足夠的供應。他們在 2021 年出口了 1000 萬噸 DAP 和 MAP。不過，我們預計他們今年將出口 600 萬噸至 700 萬噸 DAP 和 MAP。但國內磷肥和尿素市場與國際市場相比存在很大折扣。展望今年下半年，值得關注的是，我認為中國政府可能希望繼續為中國種植者維持可負擔的低化肥價格。由於國內價格與國際價格之間的脫節，可能會繼續限制出口，以保持國內市場的脫節。

Your next question is from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Yes. First question on sort of the Chinese urea outlook. Historically, producers there in China would take advantage of higher global prices and export more. Are you seeing more discipline in China? Or is it related to coal and environmental issues?

是的。第一個關於中國尿素前景的問題。從歷史上看，中國的生產商會利用全球價格上漲的機會增加出口。你看到中國有更多的紀律嗎？還是與煤炭和環境問題有關？

And then second, a quick one on Retail -- in Retail. Just on seeds, your both sales and gross margins were down, which was a little surprising given that price cuts were up. So can you just shed some light on that?

然後第二個，關於零售的快速討論——在零售中。就種子而言，你們的銷售額和毛利率都下降了，考慮到降價幅度上升，這有點令人驚訝。那麼，您能對此有所了解嗎？

Great. Thanks, P.J. Yes, with respect to Chinese urea, I think it goes back to the question of domestic supply once again, where we've seen the Chinese shut-in exports in favor of domestic market, and that's certainly for the first half of this year and could carry on to the second half. But Jason, do you want to provide some more color around Chinese urea and then we'll head over to Jeff Tarsi to talk about Retail seed sales.

偉大的。謝謝，P.J。今年，可能會持續到下半年。但是傑森，你想為中國尿素提供更多的色彩，然後我們將前往傑夫塔西談論零售種子銷售。

Sure. Yes, in terms of the urea situation, typically, and we've seen this over the last couple of years, there isn't a lot of excess supply in China in the first half of the year anyway because it's the domestic use period. But with the export restrictions in place, we believe that exports in the first half of the year will be less than 1 million tonnes. I think it was 300,000 tonnes for the first quarter of the year. And the big reason for that is the export restrictions. So the government is restricting the volumes of exports. Historically, when exports have been restricted in the first half, we've seen a strong movement of volumes to bonded warehouses in advance of the export restrictions being removed, but may not see that as much this year because there are export inspections in place that are purposely delaying the time it takes to move product into those warehouses. So it might even further delay the start of the export season in July.

當然。是的，就尿素情況而言，通常情況下，我們在過去幾年中已經看到了這一點，無論如何，上半年中國的供應並沒有太多過剩，因為這是國內使用期。但隨著出口限制的到位，我們認為今年上半年的出口量將不到100萬噸。我認為今年第一季度是 300,000 噸。最大的原因是出口限制。因此，政府正在限制出口量。從歷史上看，當上半年出口受到限制時，在出口限制被取消之前，我們已經看到數量強勁地轉移到保稅倉庫，但今年可能不會看到那麼多，因為有出口檢查到位故意延遲將產品運送到這些倉庫所需的時間。因此，它甚至可能進一步推遲 7 月出口季節的開始。

And Jeff, over to you for a discussion about Retail seed sales.

傑夫，請與您討論有關零售種子銷售的問題。

Sure, P.J. Thanks for the question. Look, on the seed side of things, obviously, the first quarter is a very quiet quarter for us, and it depends on really what the last 2 weeks of March due from a weather standpoint. I think we've talked about it numerous times today that we got off to a slow start. And so I have us about flat, just maybe just slightly up the seed revenue for the quarter and slightly down on margins, maybe 50 basis points. That's all a timing issue right now, P.J. I think just once we get rolling into the season and start getting this crop planted, we'll see all of that pick up. We had about a 50-point -- 50 basis point share increase in seed in North America. Last year, we planned this year to maintain that share gain, and we have plans to grow organically in our seed business quite significantly over the next 5 years. So no concern right now, just mainly a timing issue and just need to get the planters in the field. Thanks.

當然，P.J. 謝謝你的問題。看，在種子方面，顯然，第一季度對我們來說是一個非常安靜的季度，從天氣的角度來看，這實際上取決於 3 月最後兩週的情況。我想我們今天已經多次談論它，我們起步緩慢。所以我讓我們基本持平，可能只是略微增加了本季度的種子收入，而利潤率略有下降，可能是 50 個基點。現在這都是時間問題，P.J. 我認為一旦我們進入這個季節並開始種植這種作物，我們就會看到所有這些都回升。我們在北美的種子股份額增加了大約 50 點 - 50 個基點。去年，我們計劃在今年保持這一份額增長，並且我們計劃在未來 5 年內大幅實現種子業務的有機增長。所以現在不用擔心，主要是時間問題，只需要讓種植者進入田間。謝謝。

Your next question is from Steven Hansen with Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自 Steven Hansen 和 Raymond James。

Two-part question on your export logistics for potash, if I may. First, outside of the short rail strike, I'm just curious if there's any limitations that you might have faced in the period on export volumes. They did improve modestly year-over-year, but we're still well below 2019 levels.

如果可以的話，關於你們鉀肥出口物流的兩部分問題。首先，除了短暫的鐵路罷工之外，我只是想知道您在此期間是否可能面臨出口量的任何限制。它們確實同比略有改善，但我們仍遠低於 2019 年的水平。

And secondly, one of Canpotex's logistics partners has been talking recently about the potential to move potash via direct line haul straight to the U.S. Gulf for export to Brazil. Just curious if you think that plan has any merits and what kind of infrastructure would be needed if that was the case.

其次，Canpotex 的物流合作夥伴之一最近一直在談論通過直接運輸將鉀肥直接運到美國海灣出口到巴西的潛力。只是好奇您是否認為該計劃有任何優點，如果是這樣的話，需要什麼樣的基礎設施。

Yes. Thanks, Steve. So with respect to export logistics and limitations by Canpotex. I mean, again, I'll just go back to sufficient port capacity and access to tidewater here in North America and it becomes a question of rail. And I think you're rightly pointing out that there were some rail disruptions in the first quarter of this year. There was some impacts from the CP strike. We were largely able to mitigate those impacts by favoring volumes that travel on the CN. But we also saw some -- there have been some other labor disruptions associated with COVID still and challenges with rail companies' staffing from time to time. So we had a little bit of that. And then we had some weather-related events in the first quarter as well that made it a challenge to get to the West Coast with our potash. Now that said, first quarter, while the volumes were a little bit down compared to last year, we expect to fully recover those volumes in the balance of 2022. And so we cope with these things every year, and yet we expect to recover the volumes.

是的。謝謝，史蒂夫。因此，關於出口物流和 Canpotex 的限制。我的意思是，再次，我將回到北美這裡有足夠的港口容量和潮水通道，這變成了鐵路問題。而且我認為您正確地指出，今年第一季度出現了一些鐵路中斷。 CP罷工有一些影響。通過支持在 CN 上傳輸的數量，我們在很大程度上能夠減輕這些影響。但我們也看到了一些——仍然存在與 COVID 相關的其他一些勞動力中斷，並且不時對鐵路公司的人員配備提出挑戰。所以我們有一點。然後我們在第一季度也發生了一些與天氣有關的事件，這使得我們很難帶著我們的鉀肥到達西海岸。話雖如此，第一季度，雖然銷量與去年相比略有下降，但我們預計將在 2022 年剩餘時間內完全恢復這些銷量。所以我們每年都會應對這些事情，但我們希望能夠恢復卷。

With respect to accessing the Gulf to transport volumes overseas, certainly, these things are all possible. I think it's fair to say it becomes a question of cost. It's a long journey via rail. And so for us, in our supply chain, we feel particularly advantaged today because we do have sufficient access to tidewater where today, we can go -- we can head west to our Neptune facility and Canpotex has a Neptune facility in Vancouver and in Portland as well. So -- but the shorter answer is, yes, if you can arrange the rail and you can get terminal facilities on the coast and then you can get ships in a deepwater port, yes, you can transport potash.

關於進入海灣地區將貨物運往海外，當然，這些都是可能的。我認為公平地說它變成了成本問題。乘坐鐵路是一段漫長的旅程。所以對我們來說，在我們的供應鏈中，我們今天感到特別有利，因為我們確實有足夠的潮水通道，今天我們可以去的地方——我們可以向西前往我們的海王星工廠，Canpotex 在溫哥華和波特蘭都有海王星工廠也是。所以 - 但簡短的回答是，是的，如果你可以安排鐵路，你可以在海岸獲得碼頭設施，然後你可以在深水港停靠船隻，是的，你可以運輸鉀肥。

Your next question is from Michael Piken with Cleveland Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken。

Wanted to talk about the nitrogen side of the business. If you could talk a little bit about just where you see India in terms of what they need in the coming months. And then also, if you could talk about how much capacity you think is off-line in Europe right now. And then moving forward, where you see your Trinidad ops running throughout the year.

想談談業務的氮方面。如果你能談談你在印度看到的未來幾個月的需求。然後，如果你能談談你認為歐洲目前有多少產能處於離線狀態。然後繼續前進，您會看到您的特立尼達行動全年運行。

Great. Yes. Well, thank you. Yes, it is the case that we see some European volumes off-line. We think for the quarter here, maybe 6 million tonnes. At $35 gas, those European prices require an ammonia price of about $1,250. And so it is the case that the price at Tampa ammonia is above that today. So European plants have some incentives. But I'll hand it over to -- first to Raef to provide all the color around that, and then over to Jason Newton.

偉大的。是的。嗯，謝謝。是的，我們看到一些歐洲交易量離線。我們認為本季度的產量可能為 600 萬噸。在 35 美元的天然氣價格下，這些歐洲價格要求氨的價格約為 1,250 美元。因此，坦帕氨的價格高於今天的價格。所以歐洲工廠有一些激勵措施。但我會把它交給——首先交給 Raef 來提供圍繞它的所有顏色，然後交給 Jason Newton。

Yes. So look, we've been watching this closely. You've seen some huge variations in the price of gas paid in Europe. And Ken's right, I mean, in February, we saw about 6 million tonnes shut in, Tampa went up to [$1,625]. We saw a lot of that capacity come back online. I think what you need to keep an eye on here is what's happening with both the international ammonia pricing and the European gas prices. With European gas pricing unlikely to be much below $30 for the rest of the year, you need to have ammonia pricing well over $1,200 to be able to operate. So just keep an eye on that as you go through the year. Globally -- let me just make this point here. The ammonia market has continued to grow. Consumption has continued to grow at 2.5 million tonnes a year. Now in the last 2 years and if you look forward the next 2, 3 years, the amount of production coming online is well below that growth in annual consumption. So market has been tightening. It continues to tighten. When you have shocks like the pricing we're seeing in Europe and the unfortunate war in Ukraine, it adds to the compounds, the issues.

是的。所以看，我們一直在密切關注。您已經看到歐洲支付的天然氣價格存在巨大差異。 Ken 是對的，我的意思是，在 2 月份，我們看到大約 600 萬噸被關閉，坦帕上漲到 [1,625 美元]。我們看到很多這樣的容量重新上線。我認為你需要關注的是國際氨氣定價和歐洲天然氣價格的變化。由於歐洲天然氣價格在今年餘下時間不太可能遠低於 30 美元，因此您需要將氨氣定價遠遠超過 1,200 美元才能運行。因此，在您度過這一年時，請密切注意這一點。在全球範圍內——讓我在這裡提出這一點。氨水市場持續增長。消費量繼續以每年 250 萬噸的速度增長。現在在過去 2 年，如果你展望未來 2、3 年，上線的生產量遠低於年消費量的增長。所以市場一直在收緊。它繼續收緊。當你遇到像我們在歐洲看到的定價和烏克蘭不幸的戰爭這樣的衝擊時，它會增加化合物和問題。

With regards to India, specifically, I'm going to pass that to Jason. I think he's got a much clearer picture of what's happening there in the detail. So Jason, over to you.

關於印度，具體來說，我將把它傳遞給 Jason。我認為他對那裡發生的事情有更清晰的了解。所以傑森，交給你了。

Yes. We've seen a really strong start to the year in India. Imports in the first quarter were up about 3x versus where they were a year ago. So over 3 million tonnes of imports. And we expect imports to be in the range of 8 million to 9 million tonnes this year compared to 7 million tonnes last year. So I do expect an increase in imports in India in 2022. It will be interesting to watch. They're starting to tender again, the RCF tender for 1.5 million tonnes was recently announced. And as we get further and especially into the second half of the year, what the supply constraints look like and what volumes are made available for those tenders. .

是的。我們已經看到印度今年的開局非常強勁。第一季度的進口量與一年前相比增長了約 3 倍。所以進口量超過300萬噸。我們預計今年的進口量將在 800 萬噸至 900 萬噸之間，而去年為 700 萬噸。因此，我確實預計 2022 年印度的進口量會增加。這將很有趣。他們再次開始招標，最近宣布了 150 萬噸的 RCF 招標。隨著我們走得更遠，尤其是進入下半年，供應限制是什麼樣的，以及這些招標的供應量是多少。 .

Your next question is from Joshua Spector with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Joshua Spector。

I guess just a little bit of capital allocation. I mean a lot of conversation on potash expansions, and you have some nitrogen things in the work. Just wondering, given the improvement of performance in the phosphate side of things, is that something that deserves additional investments or conversely is now a time to look about strategic options for that business?

我想只是一點點資本配置。我的意思是很多關於鉀肥擴張的談話，你在工作中有一些氮的東西。只是想知道，鑑於磷酸鹽方面性能的改善，是否值得額外投資，或者相反，現在是時候考慮該業務的戰略選擇了？

Great. Well, thank you, Josh. I would say that our capital allocation priorities and discipline have not changed. As we head into Investor Day, we'll certainly be talking more about capital associated with acceleration, everything we've been talking about on the call today. But I'll hand it over to Pedro to just provide some more details on how we're thinking about capital allocation today.

偉大的。好吧，謝謝你，喬希。我想說的是，我們的資本配置重點和紀律沒有改變。當我們進入投資者日時，我們肯定會更多地談論與加速相關的資本，這是我們今天在電話會議上一直在談論的一切。但我將把它交給佩德羅，以提供更多關於我們今天如何考慮資本配置的細節。

Thank you. Joshua, I think we -- our position in terms of phos has not changed. So we are running for cash. We're doing very well. We have made good improvements, but we are not yet prepared to allocate any cash to phos in the future for investment. Of course, we are sustaining all of our assets for reliability and safety there. But our -- as you pointed out, our capital allocation, it's going to be -- we're going to have more options and degrees of freedom. We originally spoke about $4 billion being excess cash in the prior call. And we decided to allocate then $2 billion for share buybacks, another $2 billion will come back at the middle of the year and talk about it. We now obviously are starting from a higher position. So we are likely to be at a multiple of that $2 billion. And what we are doing is a body of work to see, as Ken pointed out before, what additional investments within this strategy we are willing to accelerate those that have high return in payback and a number of you kind of touched on, of course, all the opportunities in potash. We also have opportunities in low-emission ammonia, and we have the continued opportunities in Retail that we have spoken before. So when we come to the June -- IR Day update in June 9, we're going to be able to kind of provide a more complete view of that, including what additional opportunities we have for shareholder distribution. So all of that is going. Our experience so far in terms of our capital allocation has been that we distribute a lot of our excess cash. I mean, up until '21, we distributed $9 billion, $5 billion of which were share buyback for the dividends and the $5 billion of buybacks were at $55 a share. And just this year, another $740 million at $82 a share. So this strategy seems to be working. And as we pointed out, we think that we may have a different mid-cycle earnings position that will continue to support that strategy. So more to come in June 9, but that's kind of how we are thinking so far.

謝謝你。 Joshua，我認為我們在 phos 方面的立場沒有改變。所以我們正在為現金而戰。我們做得很好。我們已經取得了很好的改進，但我們還沒有準備好在未來將任何現金分配給 phos 進行投資。當然，我們正在維護我們所有的資產，以確保那裡的可靠性和安全性。但是我們——正如你所指出的，我們的資本分配，它將是——我們將有更多的選擇和自由度。在之前的電話會議中，我們最初談到 40 億美元是超額現金。我們決定分配 20 億美元用於股票回購，另外 20 億美元將在年中回來討論。我們現在顯然是從更高的位置開始的。因此，我們可能會達到 20 億美元的倍數。正如肯之前指出的那樣，我們正在做的是一項工作，我們願意在這一戰略中進行哪些額外投資，以加速那些具有高回報率的投資，當然，你們中的一些人也曾接觸過，鉀肥中的所有機會。我們在低排放氨方面也有機會，我們在零售方面也有我們之前說過的持續機會。因此，當我們來到 6 月 - 6 月 9 日的 IR 日更新時，我們將能夠提供更完整的視圖，包括我們有哪些額外的股東分配機會。所以這一切都在進行。到目前為止，我們在資本配置方面的經驗是，我們分配了大量多餘的現金。我的意思是，直到 21 年，我們分配了 90 億美元，其中 50 億美元是用於股息的股票回購，50 億美元的回購價格為每股 55 美元。就在今年，還有 7.4 億美元，每股 82 美元。所以這個策略似乎奏效了。正如我們所指出的，我們認為我們可能有一個不同的中期盈利狀況，將繼續支持該戰略。 6 月 9 日還會有更多消息，但這就是我們目前的想法。

And our final question is from Adrian Tamagno with Berenberg.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Adrian Tamagno 和 Berenberg。

I had one on Brazil. How do you see the competitive landscape evolving in the country? Because Russian companies, we have a high share of the local fertilizer distribution market. So would this allow somehow easier M&A in the country with more sanction on Russia? Or do you see that on the ground at the moment? .

我在巴西有一個。您如何看待該國競爭格局的演變？因為俄羅斯公司，我們在當地化肥分銷市場佔有很高的份額。那麼，如果對俄羅斯實施更多製裁，這是否會讓該國的併購變得更容易？或者你現在在地面上看到了嗎？ .

So yes, if I understood correctly, Adrian, the question is about the competitive landscape in Brazil and Russia and fertilizers being supplied to that part of the world and what we're seeing there. Yes. So we have, obviously, a growing retail network in Brazil, and we've been focused on continuing to grow that. We continue to see opportunity there and certainly watching that competitive landscape. But I'll hand it over to Mark Thompson to talk a little bit more, who heads up our M&A work in Brazil, and then maybe over to Jeff Tarsi to just talk about our operations there. So Mark?

所以是的，如果我理解正確的話，阿德里安，問題是關於巴西和俄羅斯的競爭格局以及向世界這些地區供應的化肥以及我們在那裡看到的情況。是的。因此，顯然，我們在巴西擁有不斷增長的零售網絡，我們一直專注於繼續發展。我們繼續在那裡看到機會，當然也在關注這種競爭格局。但我會把它交給 Mark Thompson 多談一點，他負責我們在巴西的併購工作，然後可能交給 Jeff Tarsi 來談談我們在那裡的業務。那麼馬克？

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So I think your question is really on how the competitive landscape is shaping up in the distribution part of the Brazilian market structure. And so obviously, there's multiple layers to the market structure in Brazil in terms of ultimately how growers are served. And as you've noted, the fertilizer distribution segment of that market has become relatively consolidated, and there has been some acquisition of assets by some of the Russian fertilizer companies and competitors in that space. As you know, our business is really more of a direct-to-grower high-touch, high-service model in that market. And obviously, we've been quite forthcoming about our strategy that's been in place for multiple years about growing our presence in Brazil and helping growers be more productive and boost yields and adopt more technology in the company -- in the country, pardon me. So in the past few years, we've obviously completed 5 acquisitions. We've deployed about $300 million in enterprise value in the country. And we've built one of the largest multi-region businesses in Brazil today. And really, it's sort of segment that's 1 level closer to the ground than where the consolidation in the fertilizer distribution space has been. So we now have over 50 locations. We've got over 10 experience centers. We've got fertilizer blending, soybean seed production and nutritional formulation directly in the country.

是的。謝謝，肯。所以我認為你的問題實際上是關於競爭格局在巴西市場結構的分銷部分是如何形成的。很明顯，巴西的市場結構在最終如何為種植者服務方面存在多個層次。正如你所指出的，該市場的化肥分銷領域已經相對整合，一些俄羅斯化肥公司和競爭對手在該領域收購了一些資產。如您所知，我們的業務實際上更像是該市場中直接面向種植者的高接觸、高服務模式。很明顯，我們對我們多年來一直在實施的戰略非常坦率，該戰略旨在擴大我們在巴西的業務，幫助種植者提高生產力，提高產量，並在公司內採用更多技術——請原諒我。所以在過去的幾年裡，我們顯然完成了 5 次收購。我們已經在該國部署了大約 3 億美元的企業價值。我們已經建立了當今巴西最大的多區域業務之一。實際上，它是一種比肥料分配空間中的整合位置更接近地面的部分。所以我們現在有 50 多個地點。我們有10多個體驗中心。我們在該國直接進行肥料混合、大豆種子生產和營養配方。

And as we look forward from an M&A standpoint in Brazil, we see a healthy pipeline ahead of us notwithstanding the fact that we are building a large presence there and have already begun to amass one. We're still only about 1% to 2% of the ag retail market in Brazil. So it's a very attractive growth market for us and leaves us a lot of room to run going forward as that part of the industry continues to consolidate and professionalize. So maybe I'll just hand it over to Jeff Tarsi for any more comments that you might have.

當我們從巴西併購的角度展望未來時，我們看到一條健康的管道擺在我們面前，儘管我們正在那裡建立一個龐大的業務並且已經開始積累一個。我們仍然只佔巴西農業零售市場的 1% 到 2% 左右。因此，這對我們來說是一個非常有吸引力的增長市場，隨著行業的這一部分繼續整合和專業化，我們有很大的前進空間。所以也許我會把它交給 Jeff Tarsi，讓你有更多的意見。

Yes. Mark, those are great comments and really not a lot more to add except to the fact that I think you said it and I'll say it again, is that continues to be an extremely attractive growth opportunity for Nutrien Ag Solutions as it relates Retail. Look, we've had dual strategies there. Mark's talked about the acquisition opportunities. He also referenced our experience centers that we're putting in and which is kind of a new go-to-market type philosophy in that business. André Dias, that leads that business for us, is very experienced in that market. And as we look to add some new opportunities there, I think we'll look at them as a little bit more asset light than what we think of our markets here in North America. Those experience centers are hub-and-spoke-type centers where growers can come in and get the latest knowledge and technology and then their product is maybe shipped from a central supply point and standpoint. But we just -- we're gaining confidence by the date in our strategy in Brazil and our go-to approach there, and we're excited about what the future holds for us there.

是的。馬克，這些都是很好的評論，除了我認為你說過而且我會再說一遍的事實之外，真的沒有太多要補充的了，這對於 Nutrien Ag Solutions 來說仍然是一個極具吸引力的增長機會，因為它與零售相關.看，我們在那裡有雙重策略。馬克談到了收購機會。他還提到了我們正在投入的體驗中心，這是該業務中一種新的進入市場類型的理念。為我們領導該業務的安德烈·迪亞斯（André Dias）在該市場非常有經驗。當我們希望在那裡增加一些新的機會時，我認為我們會將它們視為比我們對北美市場的看法更輕資產。這些體驗中心是輪輻式中心，種植者可以進來並獲得最新的知識和技術，然後他們的產品可能會從中心供應點和角度運送。但我們只是 - 我們對我們在巴西的戰略和我們在那裡的首選方法獲得了信心，我們對那裡的未來感到興奮。

And that ends the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Jeff Holzman for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我現在將把電話轉回給 Jeff Holzman 做結束語。

Thank you, operator. Just wanted to remind everyone, registration for our June 9 Investor Update Meeting is now open on our website. I would also like to highlight that Jason Newton, our Chief Economist, will be hosting a market update call and Q&A session on June 8. Thanks for joining us today, and have a great day.

謝謝你，接線員。只是想提醒大家，6 月 9 日投資者更新會議的註冊現已在我們的網站上開放。我還想強調一下，我們的首席經濟學家 Jason Newton 將於 6 月 8 日主持市場更新電話會議和問答環節。感謝您今天加入我們，祝您度過愉快的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連接。