Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Nutrien 2022 Q3 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jeff Holzman, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。此時，所有線路都處於只聽模式。演講結束後，我們將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Holzman 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's Third Quarter 2022 Conference Call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain material assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our quarterly reports to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form filed with Canadian and U.S. Securities Commission. I will now turn the call over to Kenneth Seitz, President and CEO; and Pedro Farah, our CFO, for opening comments before we take your questions.

謝謝你，接線員。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2022 年第三季度電話會議。在我們進行本次電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計劃和前景所做的各種陳述都包含前瞻性信息。作出這些結論和預測時應用了某些重大假設。因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性信息中包含的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的其他信息包含在我們向股東提交的季度報告以及我們最近提交給加拿大和美國證券委員會的年度報告、MD&A 和年度信息表中。我現在將把電話轉給總裁兼首席執行官 Kenneth Seitz；以及我們的首席財務官 Pedro Farah，感謝您在我們回答您的問題之前發表評論。

Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's third quarter earnings call. 2022 has been shaped by geopolitical events that have heightened the world's focus on food and energy security. Nutrien has responded by taking a number of strategic actions that position our company to meet the demands of our customers and deliver superior long-term value for our shareholders. We expect to generate record earnings in 2022, but acknowledge that Potash market conditions in the second half of the year have been more volatile than previously anticipated. Potash demand in North America and Brazil declined in the third quarter as far as worked through inventory that was built early in the year. These regions represent the 2 largest markets for Nutrien Potash. Therefore, the decline in demand and prices had a more significant near-term impact on our business.

早上好，歡迎來到 Nutrien 的第三季度財報電話會議。 2022 年受到地緣政治事件的影響，這些事件提高了世界對糧食和能源安全的關注。 Nutrien 採取了一系列戰略行動，使我們的公司能夠滿足客戶的需求，並為我們的股東提供卓越的長期價值。我們預計 2022 年將創造創紀錄的收益，但承認下半年鉀肥市場狀況比之前預期的波動更大。就年初建立的庫存而言，北美和巴西的鉀肥需求在第三季度有所下降。這些地區代表了 Nutrien 鉀肥的 2 個最大市場。因此，需求和價格的下降對我們的業務產生了更顯著的近期影響。

However, we view this as a temporary lull, and our confidence in the outlook for the fundamentals of our business has not changed. Global grain supply remains very tight with the stocks-to-use ratio projected to fall to a more than 0.25 century low this crop year. High energy costs and export restrictions continue to impact global fertilizer production and trade, most notably in Europe, and we believe the supply constraints will persist well beyond 2022. We maintained that in a supply-constrained environment, no other producer has an ability like Nutrien to bring on additional low-cost Potash and nitrogen volumes to meet pent-up demand. Therefore, we continue to advance our strategic growth initiatives that are based on a positive multiyear view of the fundamentals.

然而，我們認為這是暫時的平靜，我們對業務基本面前景的信心沒有改變。全球糧食供應仍然非常緊張，預計本作物年度庫存與使用比率將降至 0.25 個世紀以來的低點。高能源成本和出口限制繼續影響全球肥料生產和貿易，尤其是在歐洲，我們認為供應限制將持續到 2022 年之後。我們堅持認為，在供應受限的環境中，沒有其他生產商具備像 Nutrien 這樣的能力帶來額外的低成本鉀肥和氮氣量以滿足被壓抑的需求。因此，我們繼續推進基於對基本面的積極多年看法的戰略增長計劃。

Pedro will speak more to our capital allocation plans for the remainder of 2022, but I will first provide a review of our third quarter results and outlook. Nutrien delivered a record adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter and through the first 9 months of the year, supported by higher realized fertilizer prices and record results from our retail business. Retail had a strong third quarter as growers were incentivized to invest in their cross this led to increased demand for our proprietary nutritional products, which partially offset a delay in purchases for commodity fertilizer products. Demand for crop protection products was strong, and we delivered higher margins driven by growth in proprietary product sales and tight supply for many crop chemistries.

佩德羅將更多地談論我們在 2022 年剩餘時間內的資本分配計劃，但我將首先回顧我們的第三季度業績和前景。 Nutrien 在第三季度和今年前 9 個月實現了創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA，這得益於較高的已實現化肥價格和我們零售業務的創紀錄業績。第三季度零售業表現強勁，因為激勵種植者投資於他們的雜交品種，這導致對我們專有營養產品的需求增加，這部分抵消了購買商品肥料產品的延遲。對作物保護產品的需求強勁，在專有產品銷售增長和許多作物化學品供應緊張的推動下，我們實現了更高的利潤率。

We closed the Marca Agro and Casa do Adubo acquisitions in Brazil, substantially increasing our national presence in this large and rapidly growing agriculture market. We are on track to exceed for our target of $100 million in annual EBITDA from Brazil in 2023. In Potash, Canpotex increased volumes sold to Southeast Asia and delivered higher contract volumes to China. Shipments to Brazil slowed in the third quarter as buyers worked down inventory that was built in the first half, included significant purchases that were made in advance of export restrictions on Belarus and Russia. North American Potash sales declined due to higher-than-expected carryover from the condensed spring season. Bio deferrals as prices moved lower during the quarter and higher carrying costs.

我們完成了在巴西對 Marca Agro 和 Casa do Adubo 的收購，大大增加了我們在這個龐大且快速增長的農業市場中的全國影響力。我們有望在 2023 年實現巴西 1 億美元的年度 EBITDA 目標。在鉀肥領域，Canpotex 增加了對東南亞的銷售量，並向中國交付了更高的合同量。由於買家減少了上半年建立的庫存，包括在白俄羅斯和俄羅斯出口限制之前進行的大量採購，第三季度對巴西的出貨量放緩。北美鉀肥銷售下降，原因是濃縮春季的結轉量高於預期。由於本季度價格走低和持有成本增加，生物延期。

Our average realized Potash price was well above the previous year, but declined from the second quarter, tracking the reduction in spot prices in Brazil and North America. Over the last few weeks, the pace of decline in Brazil has slowed and U.S. inland prices have been supported by restricted barge movements and a strong start to the fall application season. Nitrogen benchmark prices strengthened due to higher European gas costs and associated plant curtailments as well as continued supply restrictions on Chinese and Russian nitrogen products. However, our realized prices were down from the trailing quarter as summer fill programs were impacted by the seasonal reset that occurred late in the second quarter.

我們的平均實際鉀肥價格遠高於去年，但較第二季度有所下降，跟踪巴西和北美現貨價格的下降。在過去的幾周里，巴西的下降速度已經放緩，美國內陸價格受到駁船運輸受限和秋季應用季節開局強勁的支撐。由於歐洲天然氣成本上升和相關的工廠削減以及對中國和俄羅斯氮產品的持續供應限制，氮基準價格走強。但是，由於夏季填充計劃受到第二季度末發生的季節性重置的影響，我們的實際價格比上一季度有所下降。

We increased exports of nitrogen solutions to higher netback offshore markets in the third quarter, but experienced gas supply curtailments in Trinidad that primarily impacted our production and exports of urea. Our phosphate business delivered solid results supported by having a more diverse product offering, including our high-value feed and industrial products. For the past 2 quarters, we have recognized noncash impairment reversals totaling $780 million associated with our phosphate operations, which is driven by improved market fundamentals and a more favorable view of phosphate margins.

我們在第三季度增加了向淨回值較高的離岸市場出口氮解決方案，但在特立尼達經歷了天然氣供應減少，這主要影響了我們的尿素生產和出口。我們的磷酸鹽業務在提供更多樣化的產品（包括我們的高價值飼料和工業產品）的支持下取得了可觀的業績。在過去的兩個季度中，我們確認了與我們的磷酸鹽業務相關的總計 7.8 億美元的非現金減值轉回，這是由於市場基本面改善和對磷酸鹽利潤率的更有利看法的推動。

Now turning to the outlook. As mentioned in the opening, global grain stocks to use is projected to decline to the lowest level in more than 25 years. This would mark the sixth consecutive year that stocks have declined. Crop futures have moved higher in recent weeks and are indicative of multiyear strength in the market fundamentals with corn futures trading above $5 per bushel out to December 2025. Prospective crop margins are well above historical average levels, which provides an incentive for growers to increase acreage and push to maximize yields. The weather has been favorable in North America, and we anticipate that the rapid pace of harvest will support a large fall ammonia application season and normal application rates of Potash, phosphate and crop protection products. Our retail fertilizer sales volumes in October were up from the previous year, which is a good early indicator of robust grower demand.

現在轉向前景。正如開幕式所述，全球糧食庫存預計將降至 25 年來的最低水平。這將標誌著股票連續第六年下跌。作物期貨最近幾週走高，表明市場基本面多年走強，截至 2025 年 12 月，玉米期貨交易價格高於每蒲式耳 5 美元。預期作物利潤率遠高於歷史平均水平，這為種植者增加種植面積提供了動力並推動產量最大化。北美的天氣一直很好，我們預計收穫的快速步伐將支持秋季氨氮施用季節和鉀肥、磷酸鹽和作物保護產品的正常施用率。我們 10 月份的零售化肥銷量比去年有所上升，這是種植者需求強勁的良好早期指標。

Brazil's spring planting season is proceeding with favorable conditions in soybean acreage is projected to increase by 3% to 4%. We anticipate a similar increase in safrinha corn acreage and strong input purchases over the next few months. We expect robust agricultural fundamentals will drive increased fertilizer consumption in 2023. And pent-up demand for Potash will emerge as inventories are drawn down and prices stabilize. However, the current situation is unique in that global product supply remains constrained. Potash production and exports from Eastern Europe continued to be impacted by sanctions on Belarus and restrictions on Russia that are related to the war in Ukraine.

巴西春季播種季節在有利條件下進行，大豆種植面積預計將增加 3% 至 4%。我們預計在接下來的幾個月裡，番紅花玉米種植面積將出現類似的增長，並且投入採購將強勁增長。我們預計，強勁的農業基本面將推動 2023 年化肥消費量的增加。隨著庫存下降和價格企穩，對鉀肥的被壓抑需求將出現。然而，目前的情況是獨一無二的，因為全球產品供應仍然受到限制。東歐鉀肥生產和出口繼續受到與烏克蘭戰爭有關的對白俄羅斯的製裁和對俄羅斯的限制的影響。

For 2023, we forecast exports from Belarus to be down 40% to 60% compared to 2021 levels and Russian exports to be down 15% to 30%. Global Potash shipments are projected to be between 64 million to 67 million tonnes in 2023, which is up from 2022, but still well below our unconstrained demand forecast of over 70 million tons. We expect increased demand in North America and Brazil following the destocking that occurred in the second half of 2022. We based on this supply and demand outlook, we anticipate nutrient sales volumes of approximately 15 million tons in 2023. Global nitrogen supply remains tight and benchmark prices are projected to remain strong through the fourth quarter and into next year. Despite a recent decline in European gas prices, more than 1/3 of Europe's ammonia production is curtailed and European gas prices are expected to remain high and volatile through the winter. We also anticipate a tight North American nitrogen supply and demand balance due to record exports and lower import volumes in the second half of 2022.

與 2021 年相比，我們預測 2023 年白俄羅斯的出口將下降 40% 至 60%，俄羅斯的出口將下降 15% 至 30%。預計 2023 年全球鉀肥出貨量將在 6400 萬噸至 6700 萬噸之間，高於 2022 年，但仍遠低於我們對超過 7000 萬噸的無限制需求預測。在 2022 年下半年去庫存後，我們預計北美和巴西的需求將增加。基於這一供需前景，我們預計 2023 年養分銷售量約為 1500 萬噸。全球氮供應仍然緊張和基準預計價格將在第四季度和明年保持強勁。儘管最近歐洲天然氣價格有所下降，但歐洲 1/3 以上的氨產量被削減，預計歐洲天然氣價格將在整個冬季保持高位和波動。我們還預計，由於 2022 年下半年創紀錄的出口和進口量減少，北美氮供需平衡將趨緊。

I will now turn it over to Pedro to review our guidance and assumptions and capital allocation plans for the remainder of the year.

我現在將把它交給佩德羅來審查我們今年剩餘時間的指導和假設以及資本分配計劃。

Thanks, Ken. Starting with retail, our annual EBITDA guidance range increased to $2.15 billion to $2.25 billion, which is a record year for our retail business. The most significant factor impacting our guidance range is the extent to which we continue to have a wide open fall application season in North America. Our revised Potash guidance assumes that spot prices stabilize around current levels and that we see limited restocking of supply chain in the fourth quarter. We have adjusted our Potash production plans in the near term and have brought forward maintenance activities during this downtime that position us well for increased volumes in 2023. We narrowed our nitrogen guidance range as ammonia and urea benchmark prices have been generally in line with our previous forecast. We anticipate a strong fall of money application season in North America but have lowered our nitrogen sales volume guidance to reflect the impact of recent gas curtailments in Trinidad.

謝謝，肯。從零售開始，我們的年度 EBITDA 指導範圍增加到 21.5 億至 22.5 億美元，這是我們零售業務創紀錄的一年。影響我們指導範圍的最重要因素是我們在北美繼續擁有廣泛開放的秋季應用季節的程度。我們修訂後的鉀肥指引假設現貨價格穩定在當前水平附近，並且我們認為第四季度供應鏈的補充庫存有限。我們已在短期內調整了鉀肥生產計劃，並在停機期間提前進行了維護活動，這使我們有能力在 2023 年增加產量。我們縮小了氮肥指導範圍，因為氨和尿素的基準價格與我們之前的價格基本一致預報。我們預計北美的貨幣申請季節將大幅下降，但我們已經降低了我們的氮氣銷量指導，以反映特立尼達近期天然氣削減的影響。

Cash from operating activities is projected at approximately $8 billion in 2022, which is down from our previous outlook, but still roughly double the operating cash generated in 2021. Ken mentioned, we remain confident in the long-term outlook for the business and intend to invest $1.4 billion on high-return strategic growth and sustainability initiatives in 2022. In retail, we have invested approximately 500 million this year on acquisitions to grow our network in core geographies and continue to make investments to enhance our proprietary product offerings and digital capabilities. We are enhancing our low-cost nitrogen network through Brownfield debottleneck and decarburization projects.

預計 2022 年來自經營活動的現金約為 80 億美元，低於我們之前的預期，但仍約為 2021 年產生的經營現金的兩倍。Ken 提到，我們對業務的長期前景充滿信心，並打算2022 年投資 14 億美元用於高回報的戰略增長和可持續發展計劃。在零售業，我們今年已投資約 5 億美元進行收購，以擴大我們在核心地區的網絡，並繼續投資以增強我們的專有產品和數字能力。我們正在通過 Brownfield 消除瓶頸和脫碳項目來增強我們的低成本氮氣網絡。

The Nitrogen team has completed projects at 3 sites this year that are expected to reduce annual CO2 equipment emissions by more than 500,000 tons. We are advancing the front-end engineering work for our 1.2 million ton Geismar clean ammonia project and recently signed an agreement with Tyson Group Ode to be the technology provider. This is a key milestone for the project and anticipate making a final investment decision in 2023. And in Potash, we continue to progress the ramp-up of our low-cost Potash production capability. Projected global supply and demand balance supports nutrient cases for increased production as a valuable and low-cost option to close the projected supply gap. These projects come with a very low capital cost of 150 to 200 per tonne, and the investment is spread across multiple sites. Therefore, we believe that there is low execution risk and asymmetric upside potential given the incremental margin opportunity in short expected payback period.

Nitrogen 團隊今年在 3 個站點完成了項目，預計每年可減少超過 50 萬噸的 CO2 設備排放量。我們正在推進 120 萬噸蓋斯馬清潔氨項目的前端工程工作，最近與 Tyson Group Ode 簽署了技術供應商協議。這是該項目的一個關鍵里程碑，預計將在 2023 年做出最終投資決定。在鉀肥方面，我們將繼續推進低成本鉀肥生產能力的提升。預計的全球供需平衡支持增加產量的營養案例，作為縮小預計供應缺口的寶貴且低成本的選擇。這些項目的資本成本非常低，為每噸 150 至 200 美元，而且投資分佈在多個地點。因此，鑑於短期預期回收期的增量保證金機會，我們認為執行風險較低且上行潛力不對稱。

Finally, on our plans for returning capital. Last quarter, we announced our intention to return approximately $6 billion in capital to shareholders in 2022, including $5 billion in share repurchases. While some of these repurchases may now extend into the first quarter of next year due to lower forecast operating cash flows in 2022. We will still intend on completing our existing 10% share repurchase program prior to expiry in February 2023. As we target sustainable and growing dividends over time, the significant reduction in share count will be included in the decision criteria for future per share dividend increases. I'll now pass it back to Ken.

最後，關於我們的資金返還計劃。上個季度，我們宣布打算在 2022 年向股東返還約 60 億美元的資本，其中包括 50 億美元的股票回購。儘管由於 2022 年的運營現金流預測較低，其中一些回購現在可能會延長到明年第一季度。我們仍打算在 2023 年 2 月到期之前完成我們現有的 10% 股票回購計劃。因為我們的目標是可持續和股息隨著時間的推移而增長，股份數量的顯著減少將包括在未來每股股息增加的決策標準中。我現在把它傳給肯。

Thanks, Pedro. I would just make a few final comments. The longer-term fundamentals for our business remain very strong, and the challenge of feeding a growing world has not abated. In fact, over this past quarter, we have seen further pressure on global food supplies that will need to be addressed over several growing seasons. In meeting with stakeholders over the past year, my optimism for the opportunity that's ahead for our business to serve the growing and evolving needs of our world has only strengthened. As our business evolves, so will our people, and I wanted to introduce a few new members of our executive leadership team that are on the call today. Chris Reynold is our new Executive Vice President and President of Potash. Chris was previously leading our global sales organization and also served as interim President of Potash since the start of the year. He has been with Nutrien for over 18 years and is extremely well positioned to lead our Potash business.

謝謝，佩德羅。我只想做一些最後的評論。我們業務的長期基本面仍然非常強勁，養活不斷增長的世界的挑戰並沒有減弱。事實上，在過去的這個季度，我們已經看到全球糧食供應面臨的進一步壓力，需要在幾個生長季節加以解決。在過去一年與利益相關者會面時，我對我們的業務未來有機會滿足我們世界不斷增長和不斷變化的需求的樂觀態度只會加強。隨著我們業務的發展，我們的員工也將隨之發展，我想介紹一下我們執行領導團隊的一些新成員，他們今天在電話會議上。 Chris Reynold 是我們新的執行副總裁兼 Potash 總裁。 Chris 之前曾領導我們的全球銷售組織，並自今年年初起擔任 Potash 的臨時總裁。他已經在 Nutrien 工作了 18 年以上，非常適合領導我們的鉀肥業務。

Trevor Williams has taken on the role of Interim President of Nitrogen and Phosphate. Trevor has been with Nutrien for over 11 years, most recently as our Senior Vice President of Nitrogen Operations. He has diverse global experience leading large chemical operations and strategic growth initiatives. In addition, Mark Thompson, who many of you have met in the past is taking on the newly created role of Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer. Mark has been with Nutrien for over 11 years and will utilize his extensive experience working across all our business units to advance our global commercial strategy.

Trevor Williams 已擔任 Nitrogen 和 Phosphate 的臨時總裁。 Trevor 已在 Nutrien 工作超過 11 年，最近擔任我們的氮氣運營高級副總裁。他在領導大型化工業務和戰略增長計劃方面擁有豐富的全球經驗。此外，你們許多人過去見過的馬克·湯普森（Mark Thompson）正在擔任新設立的執行副總裁兼首席商務官一職。 Mark 已在 Nutrien 工作超過 11 年，他將利用他在我們所有業務部門工作的豐富經驗來推進我們的全球商業戰略。

With that introduction, we would now be happy to take your questions.

有了這個介紹，我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）。您的第一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

Ken. So an interesting year shaped up in Potash. I mean, when you did make the decision to expand Potash, it's an obvious reason why you were going to do it, right, what's going on with some of your competitors and their restrictions and tensions. But you must have known in June that the market, the demand in the spring wasn't as good as thought that inventory was going to build that the situation could possibly happen, you have to make a decision based on multiple years while at Belarus, PPC at Telco story has issues. I need to have capacity for the world and for the market. But can you talk about how maybe Nutrien got this wrong on understanding what demand should be this year and on what the right production will be for this year. Was that more brushing tons leaked out than you thought? Was that demand elasticity at higher prices was worse than you thought? And then what will be your entering production rate for January 1, 2023, that 15 million tonnes?

肯。因此，鉀肥形成了有趣的一年。我的意思是，當您確實決定擴大 Potash 時，這是您打算這樣做的一個明顯原因，對，您的一些競爭對手的情況以及他們的限制和緊張局勢。但是你一定在六月就知道市場，春天的需求不如想像的那麼好，庫存會增加，這種情況可能會發生，你必鬚根據在白俄羅斯的多年時間做出決定，電信公司的 PPC 故事有問題。我需要有能力面對世界和市場。但是，您能否談談 Nutrien 在理解今年的需求量以及今年的正確產量時可能會犯錯的原因。是不是比你想像的還要多刷牙？價格上漲時的需求彈性是否比您想像的更糟？那麼到 2023 年 1 月 1 日，1500 萬噸的產量將是多少？

Good morning Joel, and thank you for the question. So yes, if we look at 2022 and what's happened in the market, it really is 2 things. And we can talk about North America, and we could talk about Brazil. Starting with North America. We had a strong fall application in the fall of 2021. And so heading into the spring, looking with the backdrop of Ag fundamentals looking at a very strong 2022 for growers. And certainly, all the incentives there to lay down the appropriate crop nutrients to maximize yields. But we're in agriculture, and of course, weather in the spring of this year, a late start to the planting season, which led to a compressed planting season. So at the end of the planting season. As we said, we saw prevent plant acres, we saw cross-sitting and we saw and have talked about just fewer crop nutrients going to ground in the spring in North America. And therefore, larger carryover volumes through the summer than we had anticipated. So now heading into the fall, we -- what we've seen is farmers again incentivized to lay down the appropriate crop nutrients, mean with just corn and wheat at 50% above the 10-year average.

早上好喬爾，謝謝你的問題。所以，是的，如果我們看看 2022 年和市場上發生的事情，這確實是兩件事。我們可以談談北美，也可以談談巴西。從北美開始。我們在 2021 年秋季收到了強勁的秋季申請。因此進入春季，在 Ag 基本面的背景下，2022 年種植者非常強勁。當然，那裡的所有激勵措施都可以提供適當的作物養分以最大限度地提高產量。但我們在農業領域，當然還有今年春天的天氣，種植季節開始較晚，導致種植季節壓縮。所以在種植季節結束時。正如我們所說，我們看到了種植面積，我們看到了交叉種植，我們看到並談到了在北美春季播種的作物養分減少。因此，整個夏天的結轉量比我們預期的要大。所以現在進入秋季，我們 - 我們看到的是農民再次受到激勵以提供適當的作物養分，這意味著僅玉米和小麥比 10 年平均水平高出 50%。

And again, the backdrop of being very strong, we see farmers incentivized to lay down crop nutrients. But over the summer and into the fall of the start of the application season here, farmers looking at their bins and seeing fertilizer in their bins and also looking at the Potash price and holding off on those purchases until the last minute until they have to purchase. So North America, again, as we've seen inventories coming down now, in fact, we are starting to see movement with Midwest pricing at about the $640 per short ton. And in fact, that, again, through this destocking period and now into the fall application season and getting ready for the spring we're going to start to see the replenishment of those inventories. So that was in North America.

再一次，在非常強大的背景下，我們看到農民受到激勵而減少作物養分。但是在夏季和秋季施用季節的開始，農民看著他們的箱子，看到他們的箱子裡的肥料，也看著鉀肥的價格，把這些購買推遲到最後一分鐘，直到他們不得不購買.所以北美，同樣，正如我們現在看到庫存下降一樣，事實上，我們開始看到中西部定價在每短噸 640 美元左右的走勢。事實上，再次通過這個去庫存期，現在進入秋季應用季節並為春季做準備，我們將開始看到這些庫存的補充。那是在北美。

And Brazil, interesting year as well because, again, the Brazilian farmer is having a strong year. And what we saw in the first half of the year was imports coming into Brazil at 37% above the previous year. And really, that was the Brazilian farmer and the Brazilian distributors looking to shore up volumes, knowing that there could be supply side challenges with the sanctions on Russia and Belarus. And so we're able to get those volumes into the country prior to really those sanctions starting to take effect. Building those inventories so that the Brazilian farmers prepared for their big spring planting season, which they're in the midst of now, but similar behavior. And of course, we saw through that big purchasing period, Brazilian prices fly up to over $1,000 a tonne. But now again, with their planting season underway, those inventories being drawn down, but the farmer, again, watching price and reluctant to step into the market as prices come down and only really going to step into the market when those inventories need to be replenished.

巴西，也是有趣的一年，因為巴西農民再次迎來了強勁的一年。我們在今年上半年看到的是巴西的進口量比上一年增加了 37%。真的，那是巴西農民和巴西經銷商希望增加產量，因為他們知道對俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的製裁可能會給供應方帶來挑戰。因此，我們能夠在這些制裁真正開始生效之前將這些數量帶入該國。建立這些庫存，以便巴西農民為他們現在正處於的春季大種植季節做好準備，但行為相似。當然，在那個大採購期，我們看到巴西的價格飆升至每噸 1,000 美元以上。但是現在又一次，隨著種植季節的到來，這些庫存被減少了，但是農民再次觀察價格，在價格下跌時不願進入市場，只有在需要這些庫存時才真正進入市場補充。

And in the case of Brazil, through this application season and looking forward to the safrinha corn crop, those inventories, again, will need to be rebuilt. Those 2 markets for us are some of our biggest, largest export markets so that we feel that when liquidity in terms of Potash trade, and again, over the course of the summer, is constrained. And again, that's what we saw. Now heading into 2023, again, we see a very strong backdrop for the Ag fundamentals, and we see a very challenged supply situation. Through 2022, the export levels out of Belarus and Russia played out -- are playing out is essentially as we had expected, and that is somewhere around 50% of the volumes coming out of Belarus export constrained and 20% out of Russia. These are big numbers. And frankly, heading into 2023, we see a similar situation.

就巴西而言，通過這個應用季節並期待 safrinha 玉米作物，這些庫存將再次需要重建。對我們來說，這兩個市場是我們最大、最大的出口市場，因此我們覺得當鉀肥貿易的流動性以及整個夏季的流動性受到限制時。再說一次，這就是我們所看到的。現在進入 2023 年，我們再次看到農業基本面非常強勁的背景，我們看到供應形勢非常嚴峻。到 2022 年，白俄羅斯和俄羅斯的出口水平基本如我們預期的那樣發揮作用，約佔白俄羅斯出口受限出口量的 50% 和俄羅斯出口量的 20%。這些都是很大的數字。坦率地說，進入 2023 年，我們會看到類似的情況。

We know that sanctions are in full effect, but also the mines in those parts of the world are having trouble sustaining that production getting hands on maintenance parts and those sorts of things. So that, again, heading into 2023, we've been through a destocking period those inventories are going to need to be replenished and they're going to need to be replenished in a market where the supply side continues to be constrained. And again, as those inventories are rebuilt in places like North America and Brazil, big export markets for us, again, we'll feel that disproportionately. And with respect to our decision to increase Potash volumes, Joel, I would just say that our view has not changed. We had a lull in demand here in the third quarter. But again, the backdrop for the Ag fundamentals remains strong. The supply side continues to be challenged. We see that continuing into 2023.

我們知道製裁已經全面生效，但世界這些地區的礦山也難以維持生產，獲得維修零件和類似的東西。因此，再次進入 2023 年，我們已經經歷了一個去庫存期，這些庫存將需要補充，並且在供應方面繼續受到限制的市場中需要補充。再一次，隨著這些庫存在北美和巴西等地重建，這些地方對我們來說是巨大的出口市場，我們會再次感受到這種不成比例的情況。關於我們增加鉀肥產量的決定，喬爾，我只想說我們的觀點沒有改變。我們在第三季度這裡的需求平靜。但同樣，Ag 基本面的背景依然強勁。供應方面繼續受到挑戰。我們認為這種情況會持續到 2023 年。

We know that 60% of the new production that was going to come to the market over the next 5 years over and above Nutrien's production was going to be coming from Russia and Belarus -- we expect that, that new production will continue to be challenged and that we are maintaining our ramp-up schedule to be at 18 million tonnes by 2025 and have conviction around that. So that to your question about entering 2023, Joel, we've mentioned that we expect volumes and sales for Nutrien to be around that 15 million tonne level. We'll get more refined on guidance as we head towards February. But again, with that restocking in 2023, we expect to have a strong year.

我們知道，未來 5 年將投放市場的 60% 的新產品將來自俄羅斯和白俄羅斯——我們預計，新產品將繼續受到挑戰並且我們正在維持到 2025 年將產能提高到 1800 萬噸的計劃，並且對此深信不疑。所以對於你關於進入 2023 年的問題，喬爾，我們已經提到我們預計 Nutrien 的銷量和銷量將在 1500 萬噸左右。隨著我們走向二月，我們將更加完善指導。但同樣，隨著 2023 年的補貨，我們預計會有一個強勁的一年。

Your next question comes from Andrew Wong, RBC Capital.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Andrew Wong。

I guess you could call me Wong because of -- we were all wrong in the quarter, I guess. Looking at Potash sales this year, it will be around 12.5 million tons based on guidance. Capacity is start to be 15 million, 16 million tons next year. There's a lot of moving parts right now on both supply and demand side. And I'd say also, it's fair that we also have a lot less visibility on both. So does it make sense to kind of for Nutrien to see sales and demand kind of catch up with capacity and just to see some more confirmation on the more positive view here before continuing to ramp up some more?

我猜你可以叫我黃，因為——我猜我們在這個季度都錯了。從今年的鉀肥銷量來看，根據指導，將在 1250 萬噸左右。產能開始1500萬，明年1600萬噸。現在在供需雙方都有很多活動的部分。我還要說，公平地說，我們對兩者的知名度也低得多。那麼對於 Nutrien 來說，看到銷售和需求趕上產能並在繼續增加更多之前看到對更積極觀點的更多確認是否有意義？

Yes. Thank you for the question, Andrew. And what I'll say is that these investments that we make in our ramp-up capability and our production capability are incremental. So we're not jumping from 14 million to 15 million to 18 million tonnes all on one leap. And so we will be prudent with how we allocate capital in light of what we see going on in the market. But Andrew, I do go back to and ground ourselves in the fundamentals. And again, to say that the backdrop for agriculture is strong. And all we need to do is look at where Ag commodities are today and where futures are trading at for the likes of corn. As I mentioned, even though to 2025 and above $5 a bushel. And so was that strong pricing. And again, corn wet 50% above the 10-year average. So we've got this strong backdrop, but then we know that we're in a supply-constrained market. And so when we say 64 million to 67 million tonnes in 2023, that's because it's a supply-constrained market. And an unconstrained view, you would say it's somewhere around 70 million tonnes, especially in an environment where inventories are being rebuilt. So for our part, we have been, I would say, prudent about expanding capacity, pacing it with the market. But looking at 2023, 2024, 2025, we believe -- we continue to believe these supply side challenges are real and that there's going to be a home for our volumes in the market.

是的。謝謝你的問題，安德魯。我要說的是，我們在提升能力和生產能力方面所做的這些投資是增量的。因此，我們不會一下子從 1400 萬噸躍升至 1500 萬噸再到 1800 萬噸。因此，我們將根據我們所看到的市場情況謹慎分配資本。但是安德魯，我確實回到了基本面。再說一次，農業的背景很強大。我們需要做的就是看看今天的農業大宗商品在哪裡，以及玉米等期貨的交易價格。正如我所提到的，即使到 2025 年及超過 5 美元/蒲式耳。強勁的定價也是如此。再一次，玉米比 10 年平均水平高出 50%。所以我們有這個強大的背景，但我們知道我們處於供應受限的市場。因此，當我們說 2023 年為 6400 萬噸至 6700 萬噸時，那是因為這是一個供應受限的市場。從不受約束的角度來看，你會說它大約是 7000 萬噸，尤其是在庫存正在重建的環境中。因此，就我們而言，我想說，我們一直對擴大產能持謹慎態度，與市場同步。但縱觀 2023 年、2024 年、2025 年，我們相信——我們繼續相信這些供應方面的挑戰是真實存在的，並且我們在市場上的銷量將會有立足之地。

Your next question comes from Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho.

您的下一個問題來自瑞穗的克里斯托弗·帕金森。

(technical difficulty).

（技術難度）。

Operator we’ll move to the next question please?

接線員，我們會轉到下一個問題嗎？

Hello. I’m here, hello. You can hear me now. All right. Sorry, I'll ask it again. I was just asking, given just all the puts and takes, and now that the dust has settled since the initial reaction to the Ukraine war transloads have adjusted on the Potash side. We have a little bit of a better idea of what the Russians and Belarusians are capable of. There's a been some volatility in net gas prices on the nitrogen side. Can you just give us any additional framework on your specific way of thinking on a segment basis as it pertains to your $9 billion normalized EBITDA estimate? Just any thought process would be very helpful, thank you very much.

你好。我來了，你好。你現在可以聽到我的聲音了。好的。對不起，我再問一遍。我只是在問，考慮到所有的投入和投入，現在塵埃落定，因為對烏克蘭戰爭轉運的最初反應已經在鉀肥方面進行了調整。我們對俄羅斯人和白俄羅斯人的能力有了一些更好的了解。氮氣方面的淨天然氣價格出現了一些波動。您能否就您基於細分市場的特定思維方式向我們提供任何其他框架，因為它與您的 90 億美元標準化 EBITDA 估計有關？任何思考過程都會非常有幫助，非常感謝。

I think what I'll do is just provide a few opening thoughts, and I'll pass it over to our Chief Commercial Officer, Mark Thompson to provide some color. But suffice it to say that given what we've seen with the conflict in Ukraine, the challenge that's going to present over the medium term, both in terms of the energy complex in Europe and just challenged exports, crop nutrient side of Russia and Belarus and then export restrictions and other parts of the world that we've seen a structural shift in our industry that makes us think differently about what mid-cycle pricing and the price strip there looks like. And of course, we've talked about that in the past. That hasn't changed for us. We continue to believe that we are experiencing a structural shift in our industry. But Mark, I'll pass it over to you to provide some more color.

我想我要做的只是提供一些開放的想法，然後我會將其傳遞給我們的首席商務官 Mark Thompson 以提供一些色彩。但可以這麼說，鑑於我們在烏克蘭衝突中看到的情況，中期將面臨的挑戰，無論是在歐洲的能源綜合體方面，還是在俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的出口、作物營養方面都受到挑戰然後是出口限制和世界其他地區，我們已經看到我們行業的結構性轉變，這讓我們對周期中期定價和那裡的價格帶有不同的看法。當然，我們過去已經討論過這個問題。這對我們來說並沒有改變。我們仍然相信，我們正在經歷行業的結構性轉變。但是馬克，我會把它交給你來提供更多的顏色。

Thank you, Ken. Good morning Chris. Is, look, so just to reiterate what Ken had said, I mean, fundamentally, we don't see any different view around the projection for normalized mid-cycle earnings in and around that $9 billion range for EBITDA. And I think there's 2 components to that. One is on the volume side. And when we look at Potash for our business, again, I think Ken has stated very clearly here this morning that we continue to see the market needing the additional tonnes from Nutrien and Potash that will come in the years to follow. And so we see that firmly intact. And then from a pricing standpoint, as Ken has said, there's a variety of fundamental factors here from a supply-demand standpoint that we believe will result in structural changes in these markets that ultimately support that view that leads to that $9 billion level of normalized earnings.

謝謝你，肯。早上好，克里斯。是，看，所以只是為了重申肯所說的話，我的意思是，從根本上說，我們對正常化的周期中期收益在 EBITDA 的 90 億美元範圍內和附近的預測沒有任何不同的看法。我認為這有兩個組成部分。一個是在音量方面。當我們再次關注 Potash 的業務時，我認為 Ken 今天早上在這裡非常明確地表示，我們繼續看到市場需要來自 Nutrien 和 Potash 的額外噸數，這將在接下來的幾年中出現。所以我們看到它完好無損。然後從定價的角度來看，正如肯所說，從供需的角度來看，這裡有各種基本因素，我們認為這些因素將導致這些市場的結構性變化，最終支持這種觀點，導致 90 億美元的正常化水平收益。

When we look at Potash specifically and double-click on the situation in pillars in Russia, and as said, ultimately, 2022 from a supply constraint standpoint as a result of the conflict in Ukraine has played out much the way we've said, and we see that continuing in 2023 in much the same way. And ultimately, the same surge of imports that we saw in the first half of 2022, we don't believe will be possible in 2023 as the constraints take full effect. And then on a nitrogen standpoint, again, despite some warmer weather here we've seen over the past month or so, the forward strip for TTF gas and European gas prices would indicate again that Europe will be the high-cost producer in these markets. And that, again, is a result of the conflict in Ukraine and reduced energy supply from Russia that we see continuing for the foreseeable future. So those are the major factors that we're supporting our outlook and that view of structural change in these markets, and we're very confident in that view as we move forward.

當我們具體查看鉀肥並雙擊俄羅斯支柱的情況時，正如所說的那樣，從供應限制的角度來看，由於烏克蘭衝突，最終 2022 年的結果與我們所說的大致相同，並且我們看到這種情況在 2023 年以幾乎相同的方式繼續存在。最終，我們在 2022 年上半年看到的同樣進口激增，我們認為隨著限制措施的全面生效，到 2023 年將不可能出現這種情況。然後再次從氮氣的角度來看，儘管我們在過去一個月左右看到這裡的天氣轉暖，但 TTF 天然氣和歐洲天然氣價格的遠期走勢將再次表明歐洲將成為這些市場中的高成本生產國.這也是烏克蘭衝突和俄羅斯能源供應減少的結果，我們認為這種情況在可預見的未來還會繼續。因此，這些是我們支持我們的前景和這些市場結構變化觀點的主要因素，我們在前進的過程中對這種觀點非常有信心。

Your next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

I want to follow up on that, Jason. In terms of the nitrogen price and what you think the price setting mechanism is these days and what you think it might be in 2023. There's a lot of debate, as I'm sure you're aware in the investment community about that European TTF price and those European production costs and whether those should actually be setting a floor for nitrogen prices or not? And I personally can't tell over the past 3 or 4 or 5 months, what exactly has been setting the price. So maybe you could just give us your thoughts.

我想跟進，傑森。就氮價而言，你認為現在的定價機制是什麼，以及你認為 2023 年可能是什麼。有很多爭論，因為我相信你在投資界知道歐洲 TTF價格和那些歐洲的生產成本，這些是否真的應該為氮價格設定下限？在過去的 3 或 4 或 5 個月裡，我個人無法判斷價格到底是由什麼決定的。所以也許你可以給我們你的想法。

Great. Thanks, Vincent, for the question. I'll pass that one over to Jason Newton, our Chief Economist, and talk about the moving parts there, Jason.

偉大的。謝謝文森特的問題。我會把那個交給我們的首席經濟學家傑森牛頓，然後談談那裡的活動部分，傑森。

Good morning Vincent. I think it depends a little bit when you look at marginal cost on the product and the time of year. We've just come through the third quarter, which we know is a seasonal low point in terms of global demand. And as we look at where European production costs were in that quarter. Obviously, they're well above where prices were and saw over 50% of the ammonia capacity idled in Europe at that time. So I think as we look on a long-term sustained basis, we need to at least have prices in line with where marginal costs are and for ammonia and especially for ammonia and for nitrates, that's in Europe at the moment. As we get into 2023, that production that was lost in Q3 of 2022. And still, there's 1/3 of the ammonia capacity offline today, that's gone. And we expect to get into more of a demand-driven environment, in which case, it's really that demand that's going to drive pricing and above where marginal cost is as we know we're at near full operating rates globally, and we expect that to continue over the medium term, given the production that's on stream. And so as we get into a tight supply and demand environment, realistically, the cost curve is less important than it has been in the low demand period of time.

早上好文森特。我認為這在一定程度上取決於產品的邊際成本和一年中的時間。我們剛剛度過了第三季度，我們知道這是全球需求的季節性低點。當我們查看該季度歐洲的生產成本時。顯然，它們遠高於價格水平，當時歐洲有超過 50% 的氨產能處於閒置狀態。因此，我認為，從長期可持續的角度來看，我們至少需要使價格與氨的邊際成本一致，尤其是氨和硝酸鹽，目前在歐洲。當我們進入 2023 年時，在 2022 年第三季度失去的產量。而且，今天仍有 1/3 的氨產能離線，這已經消失了。而且我們預計將進入更多由需求驅動的環境，在這種情況下，真正推動定價的需求將超過邊際成本，因為我們知道我們在全球範圍內處於接近滿負荷運轉率，我們預計鑑於正在進行的生產，將在中期繼續。因此，當我們進入供需緊張的環境時，實際上，成本曲線不像在低需求時期那樣重要。

Your next question comes from Jacob Bout with CIBC.

您的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Jacob Bout。

Good morning. Historically, we used to talk about the balance of pricing versus new supply in the Potash industry. In Europe view, what is the SWIFT spot on pricing? How focused are you on market share? And what incentivized buyers to step in? I know you talked about inventories in the U.S., but what does that look like in Brazil, India, China? Is it just primarily price?

早上好。從歷史上看，我們曾經談論過鉀肥行業的定價與新供應之間的平衡。在歐洲看來，SWIFT 對定價的看法是什麼？您對市場份額的關注度如何？是什麼激勵了買家介入？我知道你談到了美國的庫存，但巴西、印度和中國的情況如何？主要是價格嗎？

Great. Thank you, Jacob, for the question. So as we approach the market, we have built our customer base over a decade now. And so we look at it as meeting the kid needs of our customers and our customers continue to grow and we grow along with them. So in terms of pricing today and the SWIFT spot for pricing. I mean, ultimately, we -- the health of the farmer is at the center of everything that we do. And so affordable crop nutrients that among the backdrop of Ag fundamentals that provide the incentives for producers to provide that high-quality price, which we do. I mean, for us, that's kind of the SWIFT spot on crop nutrient pricing. Obviously, with some of the supply side challenges that we've seen in the market, and we can really go across the crop nutrients, we've seen the volatility over the course of 2022, that's been really quite dramatic. And again, that's just based on the supply and demand fundamentals.

偉大的。謝謝你，雅各布，你的問題。因此，隨著我們進入市場，我們已經建立了十多年的客戶群。因此，我們將其視為滿足客戶對孩子的需求，我們的客戶不斷增長，我們與他們一起成長。因此，就今天的定價和 SWIFT 的定價現貨而言。我的意思是，歸根結底，我們——農民的健康是我們所做一切的核心。如此負擔得起的作物營養素，在農業基本面的背景下，為生產者提供了提供高質量價格的動力，我們就是這樣做的。我的意思是，對我們來說，這就是 SWIFT 對作物營養定價的看法。顯然，由於我們在市場上看到了一些供應方面的挑戰，而且我們真的可以跨越作物養分，我們已經看到了 2022 年的波動，這真的非常劇烈。同樣，這只是基於供需基本面。

So as we look forward now and again, new supply that's coming to the market, of course, over the next 5 years, the majority of that is going to be our supply. And again, given some of the challenges that we see with new supply that was supposed to come to the market out of Belarus and Russia. And so for our part, that's the way we think about it. Today, I would say that what's incented farmers to come into the market is -- and coming into the market is really just the backdrop in Ag fundamentals. Again, the incentives are there, Jacob, to maximize yields, therefore, applied appropriate crop nutrients. And as we've gone through this destocking period, as I say, the incentives will be there for the farmer to restock and get ready for what will be a big Safrinha season in Brazil and a big pledging season in the Northern Hemisphere. So the incentives are there. And really, that will be causing farmers and distributors to step into the market.

因此，當我們一次又一次地期待新的供應進入市場時，當然，在接下來的 5 年裡，其中大部分將是我們的供應。再一次，考慮到我們看到的一些挑戰，新供應應該從白俄羅斯和俄羅斯進入市場。因此，就我們而言，這就是我們的思考方式。今天，我想說的是，促使農民進入市場的是——進入市場實際上只是農業基本面的背景。再次，雅各布，激勵措施存在，以最大限度地提高產量，因此，應用適當的作物養分。正如我所說，當我們經歷了這個去庫存期時，將有激勵措施讓農民補充庫存，並為巴西的一個重要的 Safrinha 季節和北半球的一個重要的認捐季節做好準備。所以激勵措施就在那裡。確實，這將導致農民和分銷商進入市場。

Your next question comes from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Ben Isaacson。

Thank you very much and good morning everybody. A question on Potash prices and what it means for the retail business. So when I look back at the crop nutrient segment of retail, it looks like it generally earns about $1 billion a year of gross profit. That went up to about $1.5 million last year and getting close to $2 billion this year. Your EBITDA, however, your guidance is for around $2 billion, a little bit north of $2 billion this year and around $1 billion in 2025. How -- now that Potash prices have retreated, how do you expect the impact of that to hit retail EBITDA as crop nutrient gross profit goes down? I mean should we be thinking about 1.6 billion, 1.7 next year, something like that?

非常感謝大家，大家早上好。關於鉀肥價格及其對零售業務意味著什麼的問題。因此，當我回顧零售的作物營養部分時，看起來它通常每年賺取約 10 億美元的毛利潤。去年這一數字上升到約 150 萬美元，今年接近 20 億美元。但是，您的 EBITDA 約為 20 億美元，略高於今年的 20 億美元，2025 年約為 10 億美元。現在鉀肥價格已經回落，您預計這對零售業的影響如何EBITDA 隨著作物養分毛利潤下降？我的意思是我們應該考慮16億，明年1.7之類的嗎？

Great. Well, thank you for the question, Ben. And I'll pass that one over to Jeff Tarsi.

偉大的。嗯，謝謝你的問題，本。我會把那個交給 Jeff Tarsi。

Yes. Look, margins have been very attractive, obviously, in that nutrient shift for us in retail, both in '21 and '22. Right now, as Ken mentioned, just a little bit earlier, we're seeing a lot of momentum this fall as well. Drops come out early growers are planning for '23. And our margins are still at a very attractive rate. And I think we talked about this at some point in time, we'll see margins return to a more historical basis. But even when I look at it from a historical basis, it will be a step up from what we would have seen in 2020 and such like that. And again, the returns for the growers are strong. They still see a tremendous amount of value. And when we talk about these things, again, it's a -- these decisions are becoming size-based decisions. And growers are putting a lot of input value into an acre of ground, and they're going to give that crop whatever it is, every opportunity to maximize from a yield standpoint. So again, I think we'll see margins stay strong through the end of '22. As we get into '23, we'll reset ourselves because I think we'll be in a good position from an inventory standpoint. Our inventories will be low if we get -- if we have the tight fall, it looks like we're starting with, and we'll return to something that's a bit more historical, but again, a step-up from what we saw in 2020.

是的。看，顯然，在 21 年和 22 年的零售業對我們的營養轉變中，利潤率非常有吸引力。現在，正如 Ken 剛才提到的，我們在今年秋天也看到了很大的發展勢頭。滴出來的早期種植者正在計劃 23 年。而且我們的利潤率仍然非常有吸引力。而且我認為我們在某個時間點討論過這個問題，我們會看到利潤率回歸到更具有歷史意義的基礎上。但是，即使我從歷史的角度來看，它也將比我們在 2020 年所看到的情況更上一層樓。再一次，種植者的回報是強勁的。他們仍然看到了巨大的價值。當我們再次談論這些事情時，這是一個 - 這些決定正在成為基於規模的決定。種植者在一英畝的土地上投入了大量的投入價值，他們將給予這種作物無論是什麼，從產量的角度來看，每一個機會最大化。再說一次，我認為到 22 年底，我們將看到利潤率保持強勁。隨著我們進入 23 年，我們將重新調整自己，因為我認為從庫存的角度來看我們將處於有利位置。如果我們得到，我們的庫存將會很低 - 如果我們有緊縮，看起來我們開始了，我們將回到更具歷史意義的東西，但再次，從我們看到的情況開始2020 年。

Your next question comes from John Roberts with Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰·羅伯茨。

This is Edlin (inaudible) on behalf of John. Speaking of the inventory destocking that's going on right now, like how long do you think this will continue? And with the increased production from Nutrien and more products coming out of Eastern Europe next year. Any concerns that could put further pressure on Potash prices?

我是代表 John 的 Edlin（聽不清）。說到現在正在進行的去庫存，你認為這種情況會持續多久？隨著 Nutrien 產量的增加以及明年東歐推出的更多產品。任何可能對鉀肥價格構成進一步壓力的擔憂？

Well, thank you for the question. I'll pass that one over to Mark.

嗯，謝謝你的問題。我會把那個交給馬克。

Thanks for the question. So again, I think just to reiterate some of Ken's comments, ultimately, we do see the market going through a period of inventory destocking currently. And I think if we look at key markets for us, again, in North America, we are seeing movement of product in North America today and seeing good engagement from growers and that product is going straight to ground, and we're not seeing a lot of inventory stocking at this point, and we would expect that to begin in earnest as we enter 2023. In Brazil also, as Ken mentioned, we are beginning to see the destocking process take place. And I think importantly, when we step back and look at markets like Brazil and look globally at the Potash market, we believe that as we exit 2022, we'll be at inventory levels that are at least the same or perhaps even lower than where we entered 2022.

謝謝你的問題。因此，我想重申一下 Ken 的一些評論，最終，我們確實看到市場目前正在經歷一段去庫存的時期。而且我認為，如果我們再次關注北美的關鍵市場，我們會看到今天北美的產品流動，並看到種植者的良好參與，並且該產品正在直接落地，我們沒有看到目前有大量庫存，我們預計隨著我們進入 2023 年，這種情況會認真開始。正如肯所說，在巴西，我們也開始看到去庫存的過程。而且我認為重要的是，當我們退後一步，看看巴西等市場並放眼全球鉀肥市場時，我們相信，當我們退出 2022 年時，我們的庫存水平將至少與當前水平相同，甚至可能更低。我們進入了 2022 年。

And that sets up in combination with the demand picture that's very strong in terms of attractive crop commodity prices for growers to really pick up again on the pause that we saw in the second half of the year and continue that momentum. I think the fundamental factor, again, here is the fact that in the first half of 2022, we saw a surge of product out of the former Soviet Union in anticipation of sanctions and physical disruptions and that product found its way into global markets, including Brazil, where imports were up significantly in the first half of the year. And based on what we see today in terms of the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine, the expectation that exports from Belarus remain down about 50% and exports from Russia remain down 20% to 25% as we head into next year at that same type of supply situation, an import situation in markets like Brazil, just will not be possible as we enter 2023. And so we believe that the market will see the tightness in supply demand in a way that's not yet been seen. So combined with our view on on-demand, we believe, again, that the nutrient volumes that we've talked about in terms of our ability to flex up production are going to be needed and that inventories are destocking as we speak, and we'll begin to see that as we enter 2023.

這與需求情況相結合，在有吸引力的農作物商品價格方面非常強勁，種植者在我們在下半年看到的停頓中真正再次回升並繼續保持這種勢頭。我認為，基本因素再次是這樣一個事實，即在 2022 年上半年，我們看到前蘇聯的產品因預期制裁和物理中斷而激增，並且該產品進入了全球市場，包括巴西，上半年進口大幅增長。根據我們今天看到的烏克蘭衝突的持續情況，我們預計白俄羅斯的出口將繼續下降約 50%，而俄羅斯的出口將繼續下降 20% 至 25%，因為我們將在明年以同樣的類型進入供應情況，巴西等市場的進口情況，在我們進入 2023 年時是不可能的。因此，我們相信市場將以前所未有的方式看到供需緊張。因此，結合我們對按需供應的看法，我們再次相信，就我們提高生產的能力而言，我們談到的養分量將是必要的，而且在我們講話時庫存正在去庫存，我們當我們進入 2023 年時，我們將開始看到這一點。

Your next question comes from Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的史蒂夫·伯恩。

Yes. So I'd like to drill into Potash a little bit more. The shipments down into the U.S. Corn Belt just funds in the quarter, were they effectively zero in September? Was that what was unexpected by you? And is the retail business of yours characterizing competitor inventory levels in that retail channel is now high normal? Or are they low now? Are you seeing application rates that are actually going on the ground now is normal? Or is there a potential for some to actually be above normal? And sorry, one more on Potash and that is, can you ran Canpotex in the past. I'm sure they would listen to your view now, but looking ahead at the 2023 contract, you got a domestic price in China that's almost got a 4 in the front, and you yet have this view of that, the 2023 Potash market is going to be supply constrained. Would it be your guidance to Canpotex to hold off on setting a contract until this recovery in demand is actually underway rather than potentially near term?

是的。所以我想深入研究一下 Potash。運往美國玉米帶的出貨量只是本季度的資金，9 月份它們實際上是零嗎？是不是出乎你的意料？您的零售業務在該零售渠道中表徵競爭對手的庫存水平現在是否正常？還是他們現在低了？您是否看到現在實際的申請率是正常的？或者是否有可能有些人實際上高於正常水平？抱歉，還有一個關於 Potash 的問題，也就是說，你可以過去運行 Canpotex。我相信他們現在會聽你的意見，但展望 2023 年的合同，你在中國的國內價格幾乎是前面的 4，而你仍然有這樣的看法，2023 年鉀肥市場是將受到供應限制。您是否會指導 Canpotex 推遲簽訂合同，直到需求回昇實際開始，而不是可能在短期內？

Great. Thank you for the question, Steve. Yes. So there's quite a bit there. And so maybe I'll start with, again, just what we saw in North America as it relates to sort of the compressed spring and then carryover volumes I'll hand it to Jeff Tarsi just to talk about what we're seeing in the retail space, and then I'll come back on the Canpotex piece. So Steve, just to reiterate, we will say that carryover volumes from the spring season in North America were larger than we had anticipated. And we announced our summer fill program at -- in August at the beginning of August there. And as we look to place volumes, again, farmers were holding off with the inventories that had been carried over.

偉大的。謝謝你的問題，史蒂夫。是的。所以那裡有很多。因此，也許我會再次從我們在北美看到的與壓縮彈簧相關的內容開始，然後將其交給 Jeff Tarsi 來談談我們在零售空間，然後我會回到 Canpotex 的部分。所以史蒂夫，重申一下，我們會說北美春季的結轉量比我們預期的要大。我們在八月初宣布了我們的夏季填充計劃。當我們再次考慮放置數量時，農民們再次推遲了已經結轉的庫存。

And again, not wanting to catch a falling knife on price, watching prices soften that just buying at the last minute. And again, the application season that we're seeing in North America, and Jeff can talk more about that, we call it a normal application season, so that those inventories have been drawn down. And we do see engagement in the market at this sort of $640 per short ton Midwest pricing. So I think the short answer is, Steve, yes, those carryover volumes were larger than anticipated. We call it a lull in the market just given buyer behavior and buyer sentiment and that, that restocking now is going to have to take place. Jeff, I'll pass it to you just to talk a little bit about what we're seeing on the ground in retail, and then I'll come back on the 2023 contract.

再一次，不想抓住價格下跌的刀，看著價格走軟，只是在最後一分鐘買進。再說一次，我們在北美看到的申請季節，傑夫可以談論更多，我們稱之為正常的申請季節，因此這些庫存已經被提取。我們確實看到以每短噸中西部 640 美元的價格參與市場。所以我認為簡短的回答是，史蒂夫，是的，這些結轉量比預期的要大。考慮到買家行為和買家情緒，我們稱之為市場平靜，現在必須進行補貨。傑夫，我將把它傳遞給你，只是想談談我們在零售領域看到的情況，然後我會回到 2023 年的合同。

Yes. Good morning Steve, look, we've talked quite a bit about the fall of '21, but I always like to remind people, we had 2 really big falls. 20 and 21 were big falls. And then when we got into the spring this year and got into a real compressed market the growers just decided to hook to the planners and plant and versus put some product down for the spring. So from a pure retail perspective, we came out of the spring. I wouldn't say with a big overweight position on Potash. We carried a little bit more than we probably planned to carry. But we also layered some more product in as well for this fall. And calling around yesterday, we're starting to run through that product now and going back out into the market with Nutrien now for product.

是的。早上好，史蒂夫，看，我們已經談了很多關於 21 年秋天的事情，但我總是想提醒人們，我們經歷了兩次非常大的秋天。 20和21是大跌。然後當我們進入今年春天並進入一個真正的壓縮市場時，種植者只是決定與計劃者和種植者掛鉤，而不是在春天放下一些產品。所以從純零售的角度來看，我們走出了春天。我不會說對 Potash 有很大的超重頭寸。我們攜帶的東西比我們可能計劃攜帶的要多一點。但我們也在今年秋季推出了更多產品。昨天打電話過來，我們現在開始研究那個產品，現在用 Nutrien 重新回到市場上做產品。

And when I look at application rates and as I call and talk around, nobody's cut back on application rates. I made this remark a bit earlier. These are science-based decisions. I was at Waypoint Analytical last week, which is our soil testing business and over 3 days last week, they had record sold testing that was coming in. So we're out doing soil testing. We're looking at what was removed from the crop this year and look at the areas that we expect the crop to be good. It was as good, if not a little bit better than -- there were some areas that were weak, but removal was very strong. And these growers are going to replenish the soil with the nutrients they need. If I'm looking ahead to next year and looking in our early see book, it certainly appears that corn acreage is going to be up next year. And so we would expect our volumes in '23 to return to where they were in '21.

當我查看申請率時，當我打電話和四處交談時，沒有人會削減申請率。我早些時候發表了這個評論。這些都是基於科學的決定。上週我在 Waypoint Analytical，這是我們的土壤測試業務，上週超過 3 天，他們進行了創紀錄的銷售測試。所以我們正在進行土壤測試。我們正在查看今年從作物中移除的內容，並查看我們預計收成良好的區域。它和它一樣好，如果不是比它好一點的話——有些地方很弱，但移除非常強。這些種植者將用他們需要的養分補充土壤。如果我展望明年並查看我們的早期看書，那麼明年玉米種植面積肯定會增加。因此，我們預計 23 年的銷量將恢復到 21 年的水平。

Thank you, Jeff. And so Steve, just back to your question on Canpotex and contract settlements in the contract markets. So yes, it is true that the domestic price in China has softened, but the domestic price in China does not dictate the settlement level that a supplier and by the way, the suppliers that can negotiate a meaningful quantity under the contract is maybe just very few and far between. In fact, we're probably talking about Canpotex and maybe just 1 or 2 other suppliers. But that negotiation is going to be based on what we are seeing in the global market, and this is a supply and demand-driven market.

謝謝你，傑夫。所以史蒂夫，回到你關於 Canpotex 和合約市場中的合約結算的問題。所以是的，中國的國內價格確實已經走軟，但中國的國內價格並不能決定供應商的結算水平，順便說一下，可以根據合同談判有意義數量的供應商可能只是非常少之又少。事實上，我們可能正在談論 Canpotex 以及可能只有 1 或 2 家其他供應商。但談判將基於我們在全球市場上看到的情況，這是一個供需驅動的市場。

And you will not find whether it's a spot market in Brazil, as we've said in North America, anywhere in the world that is below the current contract price of $590 per tonne. In fact, for standard great product in Southeast Asia, we're certainly well above that. We look at inventory levels in those parts of the world. We know that India is for all intents out of Potash and is going to have to step in and for their season renew a contract and get volume into the country and that we expect that before China before their planting spring planting season, they'll have to do the same. Again, Canpotex will be looking at where volumes are trading at internationally and certainly for standard grade markets, and we'll be negotiating accordingly.

你不會發現它是否是巴西的現貨市場，正如我們在北美所說的那樣，在世界任何地方都低於目前每噸 590 美元的合同價格。事實上，對於東南亞標準的優質產品，我們當然遠高於此。我們著眼於世界這些地區的庫存水平。我們知道印度一心想要擺脫鉀肥，並且將不得不介入，並在他們的季節續簽合同並進入該國，我們預計在中國春季種植季節之前，他們將擁有做同樣的事情。同樣，Canpotex 將關注國際上的交易量，當然還有標準級市場，我們將進行相應的談判。

Your next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Sort of a 2-part question. In your Potash forecasts for India for 2023, you're way below where you were and where demand was in 2019 and 2020. Why is that? Is that a function of Belorussian and Russian shipments? Or is it something else? And then in your Ag Solutions business, what is it that you can do about these inflationary costs that are eating away at your margins.

一個兩部分的問題。在您對 2023 年印度鉀肥的預測中，您遠低於 2019 年和 2020 年的水平以及需求水平。這是為什麼呢？這是白俄羅斯和俄羅斯貨物的功能嗎？或者是別的什麼？然後在您的農業解決方案業務中，您可以做些什麼來處理這些侵蝕您利潤的通貨膨脹成本。

Thank you for the questions, Jeff. And so we'll start with Jason Newton on what we're forecasting for India, as it relates to Potash volume and then over to Jeff Tarsi for the discussion of the inflationary pressures in our retail business.

謝謝你的問題，傑夫。因此，我們將從 Jason Newton 開始討論我們對印度的預測，因為它與鉀肥產量有關，然後由 Jeff Tarsi 討論我們零售業務的通脹壓力。

Good morning Jeff, the major challenge with India is the regulatory control within the domestic market and the profitability from both an importer standpoint, given where the nutrient-based subsidy has been relative to the domestic maximum retail price. In addition to the fact that maximum retail prices have increased year-over-year, which has had a native impact on grower demand. And so the policy environment within India, when we're in a high global pricing environment makes import affordability and grower economics a challenge. And that's why we've seen that demand weaken in 2022. And we'd expect it to grow in 2023, but still remain well below, as you said, where it was back in 2020. And from an agronomic perspective, optimal rates would be 2 to 3x what they were this year. And so in a different policy environment, we'd expect strong growth in that market.

早上好，傑夫，印度面臨的主要挑戰是國內市場的監管控制以及從進口商的角度來看的盈利能力，因為基於營養的補貼相對於國內最高零售價。除了最高零售價格同比上漲外，這對種植者的需求產生了本地影響。因此，當我們處於全球高價格環境中時，印度國內的政策環境使進口負擔能力和種植者經濟成為挑戰。這就是為什麼我們看到需求在 2022 年減弱。我們預計它會在 2023 年增長，但仍遠低於你所說的 2020 年的水平。從農藝角度來看，最佳費率將是今年的 2 到 3 倍。因此，在不同的政策環境下，我們預計該市場將出現強勁增長。

Yes. And the second part of that as it relates to inflation. Obviously, we see inflation like any industry does from that standpoint. But I also think if you look through the third quarter and what we've done from a cash operating coverage ratio, we've improved 55% from 59%. So we're always focused on the expense side of our business. Obviously, fuel is up this year, and we were very strategic in moving our application rates up or the rates that we charge to apply chemistry and nutrients as we go into that market. And I think we've done a fair job of trying to keep up with that, as it goes forward. And our margin structure, whether it's around crop protection, so fertilizer was very attractive this year. I think our margins on seed were up 60 basis points through the third quarter. On crop protection chemistry, our upfront margins were up roughly 300 basis points from that standpoint. So we've worked hard to try to pass some of the cost through on that side of it. And I think our results show today that we've done a -- I think we've done a pretty good job of that. But we'll constantly be staying attuned to that. Obviously, people are a big cost in our business today, and we're constantly scrubbing that side of the business to control the expenses, no matter what the environment that we're in.

是的。第二部分與通貨膨脹有關。顯然，從這個角度來看，我們看到的通脹就像任何行業一樣。但我也認為，如果您查看第三季度以及我們從現金運營覆蓋率所做的工作，我們已經從 59% 提高了 55%。因此，我們始終專注於業務的費用方面。顯然，今年的燃料價格上漲了，我們在提高應用率或我們進入該市場時應用化學和營養物的收費率方面非常具有戰略意義。而且我認為我們在努力跟上這一點方面做得很好，因為它正在向前發展。而我們的利潤結構，無論是圍繞作物保護，所以今年肥料非常有吸引力。我認為我們的種子利潤率在第三季度上升了 60 個基點。在作物保護化學方面，我們的前期利潤率從這個角度來看增加了大約 300 個基點。因此，我們努力嘗試將部分成本轉嫁到這方面。而且我認為我們今天的結果表明我們已經完成了 - 我認為我們在這方面做得非常好。但我們會不斷地適應這一點。顯然，人員是當今我們業務的一大成本，無論我們所處的環境如何，我們都在不斷地清理業務的這一方面以控制費用。

Your next question comes from PJ Juvekar from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗的 PJ Juvekar。

A question on seeds. What are your expectations on seed pricing based on the price cards that have been put out earlier this year? And then what is the market share of Dyna-Gro. And then one large U.S. based seed company has been saying that they have been gaining share for sad in the retail channel. I was wondering if you had any comments on that.

關於種子的問題。根據今年早些時候推出的價格卡，您對種子定價有何期望？那麼Dyna-Gro的市場份額是多少。然後一家大型美國種子公司一直在說他們在零售渠道中獲得了份額。我想知道你是否對此有任何意見。

Great. Thank you, P.J. I'll pass it over to Jeff Tarsi.

偉大的。謝謝你，P.J. 我會把它交給 Jeff Tarsi。

Yes. Seed is always a competitive arena. We just kicked off our 23 seed selling season, we start that kind of as we go into the third quarter and through the fourth quarter on it. If I look at it from a price book standpoint, I'd probably characterize it as prices will be up from mid- to upper single digits for the '23 season, those price books are out and it's kind of going to lay somewhere in that range from a -- let's say, from a 5% to an 8% price increase depending on the supplier and the hybrid that's associated with it. Look, our market share in seat this year across everything was up 20 basis points. And look, I'm pleased with that because from the standpoint, we had a couple of areas that were hit with some really tough weather where we have a substantial share of seed business, particularly the Texas market. And as it relates to -- and we had crop shipped as well for corn back to soybeans in some areas, again, where we have a very large market share -- from a data grow perspective, we had a really good year. We saw significant share increases on cotton, rice and soybeans for the '22 season. So our Dyna-Gro brand remains very strong as well as our proven brand in Canada associated with canola.

是的。種子始終是一個競爭激烈的舞台。我們剛剛開始了我們的 23 號种子銷售季節，我們從進入第三季度到第四季度就開始了。如果我從價格手冊的角度來看，我可能會將其定性為 23 賽季的價格將從中位數到上個位數上漲，這些價格手冊已經出爐，而且它會在某個地方出現價格從 5% 到 8% 不等，具體取決於供應商和與之相關的混合動力車。看，我們今年在所有方面的席位市場份額上升了 20 個基點。看，我對此感到高興，因為從角度來看，我們有幾個地區遭受了一些非常惡劣的天氣，我們在種子業務中佔有相當大的份額，特別是德克薩斯市場。正如它所涉及的 - 我們在某些地區也將玉米運回大豆，再次，我們擁有非常大的市場份額 - 從數據增長的角度來看，我們度過了非常好的一年。我們看到 22 年棉花、大米和大豆的份額顯著增加。因此，我們的 Dyna-Gro 品牌以及我們在加拿大與油菜相關的成熟品牌仍然非常強大。

Your next question comes from Steve Hansen with Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自 Steve Hansen 和 Raymond James。

Just sticking to the Potash theme, I can expect the decision to hold the line on the expansion strategy given the backdrop you described. But can you just remind us how the incremental capital outlays will place down here as we contemplate the 1 million tonnes a year, effectively over the next 3 years? Or are you making those investments predominantly upfront today for all 3 million tons? Or will it come in incremental chunks as those capacity tranches come through?

只是堅持鉀肥的主題，鑑於你描述的背景，我可以預期會在擴張戰略上堅持到底。但是，您能否提醒我們，在我們考慮每年 100 萬噸，有效地在未來 3 年內，增量資本支出將如何分配？還是您今天主要是為所有 300 萬噸進行這些投資？還是會隨著這些容量部分的通過而逐步增加？

Yes. No, great question, Steve. Thank you for that. It's a little bit of both. We're ordering some long lead line items, but then staging capital as well. But I'll pass it over to Chris Reynolds, our President of Potash.

是的。不，很好的問題，史蒂夫。謝謝你。兩者都有一點。我們正在訂購一些長期領先的項目，但隨後也進行了分期資本。但我會把它交給我們的 Potash 總裁 Chris Reynolds。

Good morning Steve. Thanks for the question. And yes, we are looking to stage that capital. To date, we've committed about $200 million of that $580 million investment to reach 18 million tonnes of productive capacity by 2025. And so yes, it's going to be staged. But as Ken said, we have a lot of that $200 million was committed already is to long lead items. And as you can imagine, getting our place in queue with certain shops to make sure we can secure that equipment given some supply chain challenges, which actually remarkably haven't been too bad to date. So we still feel very good about this investment, as Ken and Pedro mentioned. We take a long-term view when making these investments and despite the pause in demand we saw in Q3, believe strongly that the market and the world is going to need that incremental volume and really making these investments allows Nutrien the opportunity to be in a position to meet that demand going forward. So again, temporary pause in demand we saw in Q3, not derailing our conviction around this investment.

早上好史蒂夫。謝謝你的問題。是的，我們正在尋找資本。迄今為止，我們已承諾在這 5.8 億美元的投資中投入約 2 億美元，以在 2025 年之前達到 1800 萬噸的生產能力。所以，是的，它將上演。但正如肯所說，我們承諾的 2 億美元中有很多已經用於長期領先項目。正如您可以想像的那樣，讓我們與某些商店排隊，以確保我們能夠在一些供應鏈挑戰的情況下保護這些設備，這實際上迄今為止還不算太糟糕。因此，正如肯和佩德羅所說，我們仍然對這項投資感到非常滿意。我們在進行這些投資時採取長遠眼光，儘管我們在第三季度看到需求暫停，但我們堅信市場和世界將需要增加數量，並且真正進行這些投資使 Nutrien 有機會進入能夠滿足未來的需求。同樣，我們在第三季度看到的需求暫時停止，並沒有破壞我們對這項投資的信念。

Your next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson。

Good morning everyone. Maybe continuing in Potash, really 2 parts. One, just get your sense on inventories in Southeast Asia. You talked about India being kind of being pretty dry on the inventory side, but there are also discussions about cutting subsidies. So just how do we get to up imports next year if the affordability is going to get potentially worse? And then I want to just think about maybe the connection between the wholesale and Potash business and retail. And just if we kind of reflect on how this year has progressed, where it would seem like there might have been different signals in terms of how the retail business was acting in terms of positioning its own inventory and buying versus how the wholesale business was approaching the domestic market? And just how do we -- what lessons are to be gleaned from that as you've kind of reflected internally on where the forecasting this year was off internally?

大家，早安。也許繼續使用鉀肥，真的是兩部分。一，只要了解東南亞的庫存。你談到印度在庫存方面相當枯燥，但也有關於削減補貼的討論。那麼，如果負擔能力可能會變得更糟，我們明年如何增加進口呢？然後我想想想批發和鉀肥業務與零售之間的聯繫。如果我們反思一下今年的進展情況，就零售業務在定位自己的庫存和購買方面的表現與批發業務的接近方式而言，似乎存在不同的信號國內市場？以及我們如何 - 從中汲取什麼教訓，因為您已經在內部反映了今年的預測在內部偏離的地方？

Well, we'll start with -- thank you for the question, Adam. We'll start with Jason just inventories in Southeast Asia, and then we'll move over to Jeff Tarsi, just to talk about, again, what we're seeing in retail and how it relates to our wholesale business.

好吧，我們將開始-- 謝謝你的問題，亞當。我們將從 Jason 在東南亞的庫存開始，然後我們將轉到 Jeff Tarsi，再次談談我們在零售業看到的情況以及它與我們的批發業務的關係。

Good morning Adam, we don't have great data in terms of the absolute number, volume of inventories in Southeast Asia. But we do know that they drew down on inventories to start the calendar year, which is one of the reasons why the shipments to that region are down. We know that markets lagged the rest of the world and the demand has remained relatively firm in the second half. And as we look toward 2023, we've seen palm oil prices come back up and the veg oil market has certainly strengthened, which improves the economic outlook in that region. And we'd expect, just given the shipments and where we see consumption in that region that the inventories will be down year-over-year. And just to reiterate what we've talked about already with India, the inventories there are at extremely low levels. And so while we don't see a huge increase in consumption, just the fact that inventories are so low is supportive of an increase in shipments to that region in 2023.

早上好亞當，我們沒有關於東南亞庫存的絕對數量和數量的重要數據。但我們確實知道，他們在日曆年開始時就減少了庫存，這也是該地區出貨量下降的原因之一。我們知道市場落後於世界其他地區，下半年需求保持相對堅挺。展望 2023 年，我們看到棕櫚油價格回升，植物油市場肯定走強，這改善了該地區的經濟前景。我們預計，僅考慮到出貨量以及我們認為該地區的消費情況，庫存將同比下降。重申一下我們已經與印度討論過的內容，那裡的庫存處於極低的水平。因此，雖然我們沒有看到消費量大幅增加，但庫存如此之低的事實支持了 2023 年對該地區的出貨量增加。

Yes, I'll add on the -- from the retail perspective of it. And again, I don't want to sound like a broken record, but we got into the spring. And obviously, nobody can predict a latent compress spring. And so we saw growers, again, more incentivized when foot a planner in the field. Some of them new because of the 2 big falls that they had some product they could buy out of the soil and then a lot of people were working hand to mouth from that standpoint. And look, we've seen this thing back reengaged as the fall has come in. And we started this season. We were 3 weeks and it's something important.

是的，我會從零售的角度補充一點。再說一次，我不想听起來像一張破唱片，但我們進入了春天。顯然，沒有人可以預測潛在的壓縮彈簧。因此，我們再次看到種植者在實地踏上規劃師時會受到更多激勵。他們中的一些人是新的，因為他們有一些可以從土壤中購買的產品，因此他們有一些可以從土壤中購買的產品，然後從這個角度來看，很多人都在手對口地工作。看，隨著秋天的到來，我們已經看到這件事重新開始了。我們從這個賽季開始。我們是 3 週，這很重要。

Remember here, we started the year about 3 weeks behind from a cropping standpoint. And the way the fall ended up and the way the summer end and came into fall with a lot of hot dry weather this crop progressed really fast. And so now if you look at where we are on harvest, we're back ahead of the 5-year average. And I would -- we probably have been a bit man earlier in the year, I wouldn't bet on that. And so because of that, we've got a really good open market for the fall. And we've talked a lot about PK, but we've got a really high demand right now for nitrogen as well. Our NH3 book in Canada has been extremely strong in our book for the U.S. market. is extremely strong as well. And so as long as this fall is open now, I fully expect a lot of product to get the ground between now and the end of the year.

請記住，從種植的角度來看，我們在大約 3 週後開始了這一年。秋季結束的方式以及夏季結束的方式以及進入秋季的方式，伴隨著大量炎熱乾燥的天氣，這種作物的生長速度非常快。所以現在如果你看看我們的收穫情況，我們已經回到了 5 年平均水平之前。而且我會 - 我們可能在今年早些時候有點男人，我不會打賭。正因為如此，我們在秋季有一個非常好的公開市場。我們已經談了很多關於 PK 的內容，但我們現在對氮的需求也非常高。我們在加拿大的 NH3 書籍在我們的美國市場書籍中非常強大。也非常強。因此，只要今年秋季開放，我完全希望從現在到年底之間會有很多產品落地。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Holzman, I turn the call back over to you.

目前沒有其他問題。霍爾茲曼先生，我把電話轉給你。

Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available for any follow-up calls. Have a good day.

感謝您今天加入我們。投資者關係團隊可隨時接聽任何後續電話。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並要求您斷開線路。