Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2022 Second Quarter Earnings Call.

您好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 的 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jeff Holzman, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Holzman 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's Second Quarter 2022 Conference Call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain material assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information.

謝謝你，接線員。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2022 年第二季度電話會議。在我們進行本次電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計劃和前景所做的各種陳述都包含前瞻性信息。作出這些結論和預測時應用了某些重大假設。因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性信息中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our current quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form filed with Canadian and U.S. Securities Commissions. I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Interim President and CEO; and Pedro Farah, our CFO, for opening comments before we take your questions.

有關這些因素和假設的其他信息包含在我們向股東提交的當前季度報告以及我們向加拿大和美國證券委員會提交的最新年度報告、MD&A 和年度信息表中。我現在將把電話轉給臨時總裁兼首席執行官 Ken Seitz；以及我們的首席財務官 Pedro Farah，感謝您在我們回答您的問題之前發表評論。

Good morning, and I will also welcome you to Nutrien's second quarter earnings call. Before we get into the discussion of our results and outlook for the remainder of 2022, I would like to highlight 3 key messages.

早上好，我也歡迎您參加 Nutrien 的第二季度財報電話會議。在討論我們對 2022 年剩餘時間的結果和展望之前，我想強調 3 個關鍵信息。

First, we believe structural changes to global energy, agriculture and fertilizer markets will provide a supportive environment for Nutrien well beyond 2022. Second, we are accelerating strategic growth initiatives that leverage the unique advantages of our integrated business, generate excellent returns on invested capital and enhance our ability to provide sustainable solutions to help feed a growing world.

首先，我們相信全球能源、農業和化肥市場的結構性變化將在 2022 年之後為 Nutrien 提供支持性環境。其次，我們正在加快戰略增長計劃，利用我們綜合業務的獨特優勢，產生出色的投資資本回報和增強我們提供可持續解決方案以幫助養活不斷發展的世界的能力。

And third, we are committed to a balanced approach to capital allocation that supports growth and the sustainability of our business, while also returning meaningful capital to shareholders. In 2022, we expect to invest around $3 billion on sustaining and growth initiatives and distribute approximately $6 billion in capital to shareholders.

第三，我們致力於以平衡的方式進行資本分配，以支持我們業務的增長和可持續性，同時向股東返還有意義的資本。到 2022 年，我們預計將投資約 30 億美元用於維持和增長計劃，並向股東分配約 60 億美元的資本。

Pedro will walk through our plans in more detail later on in this call. Now turning to our results and outlook. Nutrien delivered record first half earnings driven by the strength of market fundamentals, the advantaged position of our global production assets and the excellent performance of retail.

佩德羅稍後將在本次電話會議中更詳細地介紹我們的計劃。現在轉向我們的結果和展望。在市場基本面強勁、我們全球生產資產的優勢地位和零售業的出色表現的推動下，Nutrien 實現了創紀錄的上半年收益。

We continue to progress our sustainability priorities and had excellent safety performance across the company, including a strong engagement in our serious injury and fatality prevention efforts, which is the most important work we do. Nutrien Ag Solutions had a record first half with adjusted EBITDA of nearly $1.7 billion, up 38% from the prior year. The retail team delivered higher margins across nearly all products and geographies supported by the strength of our global supply chain and expanded offering of high-value products and services to growers.

我們繼續推進我們的可持續發展優先事項，並在整個公司取得了出色的安全績效，包括積極參與我們的嚴重傷害和死亡預防工作，這是我們所做的最重要的工作。 Nutrien Ag Solutions 上半年的調整後 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的近 17 億美元，比去年同期增長 38%。在我們強大的全球供應鍊和為種植者提供更多高價值產品和服務的支持下，零售團隊幾乎在所有產品和地區都實現了更高的利潤率。

Crop nutrient and crop protection margins were very strong due to strategic procurement in a rising price environment and growth in our proprietary nutritional products. North American fertilizer volumes were down in the first half to a combination of a very strong fall season in 2021, some crop mix shifts and a condensed application window this spring.

由於價格上漲環境下的戰略採購以及我們專有營養產品的增長，作物營養和作物保護利潤非常強勁。由於 2021 年秋季非常強勁，作物組合發生了一些變化，以及今年春季的施用期縮短，北美化肥銷量在上半年有所下降。

Fertilizer sales volumes outside of North America were up from the prior year, reflecting growth in our Brazilian retail network. Potash adjusted EBITDA increased to $3.4 billion in the first half, supported by higher realized prices and record offshore sales volumes.

北美以外的化肥銷量較上年有所上升，這反映了我們巴西零售網絡的增長。上半年，鉀肥調整後的 EBITDA 增至 34 億美元，這得益於較高的已實現價格和創紀錄的離岸銷量。

Potash production increased by more than 5% compared to the first half of 2021, and controllable cash costs were relatively flat. The increase in production reduced our per tonne fixed costs and largely offset the impacts of inflation. Spot prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia were up significantly compared to the previous year, and Canpotex continued to prioritize its available volumes to these higher netback offshore markets.

鉀肥產量較2021年上半年增長5%以上，可控現金成本相對持平。產量的增加降低了我們的每噸固定成本，並在很大程度上抵消了通貨膨脹的影響。與去年相比，巴西和東南亞的現貨價格大幅上漲，Canpotex 繼續將其可用量優先考慮到這些淨回升較高的離岸市場。

In nitrogen, adjusted EBITDA in the first half increased to $2.2 billion as higher realized prices more than offset lower sales volumes and higher natural gas prices. The delayed start of the North American spring season impacted sales volumes, in particular, ammonia and UAN, and was a major contributor to the decline in nitrogen benchmark prices that occurred in the second quarter.

在氮氣方面，上半年調整後的 EBITDA 增至 22 億美元，因為較高的實際價格抵消了銷量下降和天然氣價格上漲的影響。北美春季的延遲開始影響了銷量，特別是氨和 UAN，並且是導致第二季度氮基準價格下跌的主要原因。

We had record phosphate adjusted EBITDA of $423 million in the first half as higher realized prices more than offset the large increase in ammonia and sulfur input costs. In the second quarter, we recognized a noncash impairment reversal of $450 million, which was driven by improved market fundamentals and a more favorable view of phosphate margins.

上半年，我們的磷酸鹽調整後 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 4.23 億美元，因為較高的實際價格抵消了氨和硫投入成本的大幅增加。在第二季度，我們確認了 4.5 億美元的非現金減值轉回，這是由於市場基本面改善和對磷酸鹽利潤率的更有利看法的推動。

Turning to the outlook. Global grain and oilseed inventories remain historically low. The recent deal to reopen Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea would be a positive development for global food security if there is a sustained increase to shipments.

轉向前景。全球糧食和油籽庫存仍處於歷史低位。如果貨運量持續增加，最近通過黑海重新開放烏克蘭出口的協議將對全球糧食安全產生積極影響。

However, analysts believe volumes will continue to be challenged by labor and logistical constraints in addition to ongoing military strikes in the region. Ukraine's grain production and export levels are projected to be down dramatically compared to 2021, leaving little buffer for any supply issues in other regions this growing season.

然而，分析師認為，除了該地區正在進行的軍事打擊外，產量將繼續受到勞動力和後勤限制的挑戰。與 2021 年相比，烏克蘭的糧食產量和出口水平預計將大幅下降，這對本生長季節其他地區的任何供應問題幾乎沒有緩衝作用。

U.S. grain conditions were generally favorable. However, high temperatures in July likely capped yield potential and record high temperatures in Europe have reduced summer crop yields. Crop commodity prices have been impacted over the past month by broader market volatility but are still 25% to 35% above the 10-year average, and futures are trading at elevated levels on a multiyear basis.

美國糧食狀況總體良好。然而，7 月份的高溫可能限制了單產潛力，歐洲創紀錄的高溫降低了夏季作物的單產。農作物商品價格在過去一個月受到更廣泛市場波動的影響，但仍比 10 年平均水平高出 25% 至 35%，並且期貨在多年的基礎上處於較高水平。

In North America, we expect strong grower demand in the third quarter for top dress nitrogen, special nutritional products and crop protection products. The crop was planted late, but is maturing rapidly with the recent hot weather, and we are planning for a normal application window this fall.

在北美，我們預計第三季度種植者對追肥氮、特殊營養產品和作物保護產品的需求強勁。該作物播種較晚，但由於最近的炎熱天氣正在迅速成熟，我們計劃在今年秋天正常施藥。

In Brazil, grower margins are strong and soybean planted area is expected to increase by 2% to 4%. Fertilizer inventories have been slow to move from port to inland positions as buyers look to purchase on a just-in-time basis. But we anticipate strong movement over the next 2 months to ensure product is available for the upcoming planting season.

在巴西，種植者利潤豐厚，預計大豆種植面積將增加 2% 至 4%。由於買家希望及時採購，化肥庫存從港口轉移到內陸的速度很慢。但我們預計未來 2 個月將出現強勁走勢，以確保產品可用於即將到來的種植季節。

In potash, much of the focus remains on supply challenges in Eastern Europe. Shipments from Russia and Belarus were down an estimated 25% and 50%, respectively, in the first half of 2022. Russian potash is not currently sanctioned, but has been impacted by restrictions on financing activities that facilitate exports.

在鉀肥方面，大部分關注點仍然是東歐的供應挑戰。 2022 年上半年，來自俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的出貨量估計分別下降了 25% 和 50%。俄羅斯鉀肥目前尚未受到製裁，但受到促進出口的融資活動限制的影響。

The impact of sanctions on Belarus supply has been more significant due to the loss of access to tidewater through Lithuania. Belarus is reportedly shipping small volumes via container, which for a bulk commodity is a more costly and logistically challenging option.

由於無法通過立陶宛獲得潮水，制裁對白俄羅斯供應的影響更為顯著。據報導，白俄羅斯通過集裝箱運輸少量貨物，對於大宗商品而言，集裝箱運輸成本更高，物流更具挑戰性。

We narrowed our global potash shipment forecast to between 61 million and 64 million tonnes in 2022 and expect shipments to be constrained by restrictions on exports from Russia and Belarus. Beyond the existing supply challenges, we see the potential for delays in the development of new potash capacity from this region, which was projected to be the source of approximately 60% of new potash supply, excluding Nutrien, over the next 5 years.

我們將 2022 年全球鉀肥出貨量預測縮小至 6100 萬噸至 6400 萬噸，並預計出貨量將受到俄羅斯和白俄羅斯出口限制的限制。除了現有的供應挑戰之外，我們認為該地區新鉀肥產能的開發可能會延遲，預計未來 5 年該地區將成為新鉀肥供應的大約 60%（不包括 Nutrien）的來源。

We expect nitrogen prices to strengthen in the second half supported by high European gas prices as well as restricted Chinese urea and Russian ammonia exports. European gas prices averaged close to $50 per MMBtu in July which equates to an ammonia cash production cost of over $1,700 per tonne. More than 20% of the Europe's ammonia production is estimated to be curtailed, and there are concerns over gas pricing and availability through the winter in Europe.

我們預計，受歐洲天然氣價格高企以及中國尿素和俄羅斯氨出口受限的支撐，下半年氮價將走強。 7 月份歐洲天然氣價格平均接近每 MMBtu 50 美元，這相當於每噸氨的現金生產成本超過 1,700 美元。據估計，歐洲超過 20% 的氨產量將被削減，人們對歐洲冬季的天然氣價格和供應情況感到擔憂。

Many buyers have delayed purchases given recent market volatility, and we expect a seasonal resurgence of demand in the second half that could further tighten supply. I will now turn it over to Pedro to review our financial guidance and capital allocation plans.

鑑於近期市場波動，許多買家推遲了採購，我們預計下半年需求的季節性複蘇可能會進一步收緊供應。我現在將把它交給佩德羅審查我們的財務指導和資本分配計劃。

Thanks, Ken. First, a few comments on our guidance. We expect a strong second half and a projected adjusted EBITDA in the region of $14 billion to $15.5 billion and adjusted EPS in the range of $15.80 to $17.80 per share. The midpoint of our adjusted EPS guidance represents a nearly threefold increase compared to 2021, reflecting both the increase in total earnings and the reduction in our weighted average shares outstanding.

謝謝，肯。首先，對我們的指導發表一些評論。我們預計下半年強勁，預計調整後 EBITDA 將在 140 億美元至 155 億美元之間，調整後每股收益在 15.80 美元至 17.80 美元之間。與 2021 年相比，我們調整後的每股收益指引的中點增加了近三倍，既反映了總收益的增加，也反映了我們已發行加權平均股票的減少。

Retail had a very strong first half, and we are now guiding to adjusted EBITDA between $2.1 billion and $2.2 billion in 2022, which represents a 12% annual growth rate over the past 5 years. We expect a more normal fall application season in North America and anticipate per tonne crop nutrient margins below the historically strong levels we achieved in the second half last year.

零售業上半年表現非常強勁，我們現在指導 2022 年調整後的 EBITDA 在 21 億美元至 22 億美元之間，這意味著過去 5 年的年增長率為 12%。我們預計北美秋季施用季節會更加正常，並且預計每噸作物的養分利潤率將低於我們在去年下半年實現的歷史強勁水平。

In potash, we narrowed our adjusted EBITDA guidance range and expect record volumes driven by strong demand in offshore markets. Potash prices have been the most stable amongst the 3 primary nutrients and we anticipate that will continue through the second half. Our revised nitrogen earnings guidance range reflects the impact of low North American benchmark pricing and higher than previously forecast domestic natural gas prices.

在鉀肥方面，我們縮小了調整後的 EBITDA 指導範圍，並預計由於離岸市場的強勁需求推動了創紀錄的銷量。鉀肥價格一直是三大主要營養素中最穩定的，我們預計這種情況將持續到下半年。我們修訂後的氮氣收益指導範圍反映了北美基准定價偏低和國內天然氣價格高於先前預測的影響。

Despite this change, we maintain our constructive outlook for nitrogen markets through the second half of the year and into 2023. We project cash from operating activities of approximately $9.5 billion assuming a cash conversion ratio of 65% at the midpoint of our adjusted EBITDA guidance.

儘管發生了這種變化，我們仍對下半年和 2023 年的氮市場保持建設性展望。假設我們調整後的 EBITDA 指引的中點現金轉換率為 65%，我們預計經營活動產生的現金約為 95 億美元。

This ratio is lower than previously forecast due to a change in timing of working capital requirements, However, we expect this to result in a more favorable impact to our operating cash flow in 2023.

由於營運資金要求的時間變化，該比率低於先前的預測，但是，我們預計這將對我們 2023 年的經營現金流產生更有利的影響。

As Ken mentioned earlier, we have a balanced approach to capital allocation and intend on allocating approximately 1/3 of our operating cash flow to growth in sustained projects. The remaining 2/3 we plan on returning to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, reinvesting [$1.3 billion] to [$1.4 billion] in sustaining projects to ensure we maintain a safe and reliable operations as well as support our expanding production capability.

正如 Ken 之前提到的，我們對資本配置採取平衡的方法，並打算將大約 1/3 的運營現金流分配給持續項目的增長。剩下的 2/3 我們計劃通過股息和股票回購回報股東，將 [13 億美元] 至 [14 億美元] 再投資於維持項目，以確保我們維持安全可靠的運營並支持我們不斷擴大的生產能力。

This is slightly higher than our previous guidance and reflects inflationary pressures on labor and equipment. We believe that inflation and equipment, in particular, may be transitory. We are allocating approximately $1.7 billion to advance high return strategic initiatives across our business that we expect will drive earnings growth through the cycle.

這略高於我們之前的指引，反映了勞動力和設備的通脹壓力。我們認為，尤其是通貨膨脹和設備，可能是暫時的。我們將撥款約 17 億美元來推進整個業務的高回報戰略計劃，我們預計這些計劃將推動整個週期的盈利增長。

[Material] accounts for nearly 60% of the growth capital with acquisitions and investments focused on expanding our network in core geographies, enhancing our digital capabilities and growing our proprietary products portfolio. We have completed or announced 10 acquisitions so far this year in Brazil, [the last in] Australia, for a total investment of approximately $450 million.

[材料] 佔增長資本的近 60%，收購和投資的重點是擴大我們在核心地區的網絡、增強我們的數字能力和發展我們的專有產品組合。今年到目前為止，我們已經在巴西（最後一次在澳大利亞）完成或宣布了 10 項收購，總投資約為 4.5 億美元。

Following completion of the 2 recent announced acquisitions in Brazil, we expect to surpass our stated target of $100 million of adjusted EBITDA by 2023. Our portfolio of Brazilian acquisitions are performing very well, exceeding our hurdle rate for this market. In potash, the majority of investment is related to underground mine development and additional mining equipment to support the accelerated ramp of our production capability to 18 million tonnes by 2025.

在完成最近在巴西宣布的兩項收購後，我們預計到 2023 年將超過我們既定的 1 億美元調整後 EBITDA 的目標。我們在巴西的收購組合表現非常好，超過了我們在該市場的門檻。在鉀肥方面，大部分投資與地下礦山開發和額外的採礦設備有關，以支持我們到 2025 年將產能加速提升至 1800 萬噸。

This is flexible, low-cost production capability that is unmatched in the industry. And based on what we are seeing in the market is production that will be needed to meet global demand. We estimate a capital cost at $150 to $200 per tonne, providing a very short payback period or in other words, a low [regret] cost based on projected margins.

這是業內無與倫比的靈活、低成本的生產能力。根據我們在市場上看到的情況，生產量是滿足全球需求所必需的。我們估計資本成本為每噸 150 至 200 美元，提供非常短的投資回收期，或者換句話說，基於預計利潤率的低 [遺憾] 成本。

We continue to advance our low-cost Phase II nitrogen brownfield expansion projects. And in May, we announced our intention to build a 1.2 million tonne clean ammonia facility at our existing site in Geismar, Louisiana.

我們繼續推進我們的低成本二期氮棕地擴建項目。 5 月，我們宣布打算在我們位於路易斯安那州蓋斯馬的現有工廠建造 120 萬噸清潔氨設施。

This project provides an opportunity to leverage existing infrastructure and access to tidewater. We believe this project can achieve attractive returns at mid-cycle ammonia prices, allowed Nutrien to participate in the current and emerging end use markets for merchant ammonia and play a key role in achieving our 2030 emissions reduction goals.

該項目提供了一個利用現有基礎設施和獲取潮水的機會。我們相信，該項目能夠以中期氨價獲得可觀的回報，使 Nutrien 能夠參與商業氨的當前和新興終端使用市場，並在實現我們的 2030 年減排目標方面發揮關鍵作用。

To be clear, we are not relying on additional volume or a price premium that may come with the development of a larger clean ammonia market. This will be an upside. Finally, we intend on returning $6 billion in capital to shareholders in 2022, which equates to 13% of our current market cap, around $1 billion of this is our dividend, which was increased by 4.4% back in February.

需要明確的是，我們並不依賴於隨著更大的清潔氨市場的發展而可能帶來的額外數量或價格溢價。這將是一個好處。最後，我們打算在 2022 年向股東返還 60 億美元的資本，相當於我們當前市值的 13%，其中約 10 億美元是我們的股息，在 2 月份增加了 4.4%。

Given the confidence in our operating cash flow, we announced yesterday our intent to complete our existing 10% NCIB in 2022. Completing the NCIB could lower our common shares outstanding to around 500 million by year-end. We plan on factoring in the significant reduction in share count in the decision criteria as we target sustainable and growing dividends over time. And now I'll pass it back to Ken.

鑑於對我們經營現金流的信心，我們昨天宣布我們打算在 2022 年完成我們現有的 10% NCIB。完成 NCIB 可能會在年底前將我們的流通普通股減少到約 5 億股。我們計劃在決策標準中考慮股票數量的顯著減少，因為我們的目標是隨著時間的推移可持續和不斷增長的股息。現在我會把它傳給肯。

Thanks, Pedro. I would just make a few final comments. The fundamentals for our business remain very strong, and the challenge of feeding a growing world has never been more apparent. Nutrien is uniquely positioned to safely and sustainably respond to this challenge through our close connection with the grower, our extensive global supply chain and our top tier production assets.

謝謝，佩德羅。我只想做一些最後的評論。我們的業務基礎仍然非常強勁，而養活不斷增長的世界所面臨的挑戰從未如此明顯。通過我們與種植者的密切聯繫、我們廣泛的全球供應鍊和我們的頂級生產資產，Nutrien 具有獨特的優勢，可以安全和可持續地應對這一挑戰。

I'm confident we can deliver due to the efforts of our talented people across the organization who I would like to thank for their hard work and dedication to helping Nutrien feed the future. I'm joined today by members of our leadership team, and we would be happy to take your questions.

我相信，由於我們整個組織的才華橫溢的員工的努力，我們能夠交付成果，我要感謝他們的辛勤工作和致力於幫助 Nutrien 滿足未來的奉獻精神。今天，我們領導團隊的成員加入了我的行列，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question comes from Andrew Wong of RBC Capital Markets.

您的第一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Andrew Wong。

So just regarding the nitrogen guidance, obviously, the market was a bit weaker into midyear than we all expected, but also, like you mentioned in the prepared remarks, supply is very constrained with the high nat gas situation that we're seeing in Europe.

因此，就氮氣指導而言，顯然，市場在年中時比我們預期的要弱一些，而且，正如您在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，由於我們在歐洲看到的高天然氣情況，供應受到很大限制.

And we just saw urea move up about $100 last week and things can move pretty quickly in nitrogen. So just kind of curious what your assumptions are in the upper and the lower end of the guidance range. And -- are you maybe being a little bit conservative here just because of what we're seeing today?

上週我們剛剛看到尿素上漲了大約 100 美元，而且在氮氣中的變化非常快。所以有點好奇你的假設在指導範圍的上限和下限是什麼。而且——你可能只是因為我們今天所看到的而在這裡有點保守嗎？

Great. Thank you for the question, Andrew. And -- yes, I mean, it's true that we had a fall application season -- a strong fall application season in 2021. And of course, the late start to the spring, which led to some shifts in crop mix and some prevent plant area, which led to lower application rates and therefore some carryover from the spring season.

偉大的。謝謝你的問題，安德魯。而且 - 是的，我的意思是，我們確實有一個秋季施用季節 - 2021 年秋季施用季節非常強勁。當然，春季開始較晚，這導致作物組合發生了一些變化，有些阻止了植物面積，這導致了較低的施用率，因此從春季產生了一些結轉。

So -- yes, we've seen some seasonal volatility here, and yet it is a supply constrained market. I will -- I'll hand it over to first Raef to provide some additional color just on how we -- that volatility and how we've set our guidance for the year.

所以 - 是的，我們在這裡看到了一些季節性波動，但這是一個供應受限的市場。我將 - 我將把它交給第一個 Raef，以提供一些額外的顏色，說明我們如何 - 這種波動性以及我們如何設定今年的指導。

Yes. Thanks, Ken, and thanks, Andrew. Look, as you noted, the volatility was much higher in the first half than we had thought. And that impacted our results. As Ken mentioned, we had really good application rates last fall.

是的。謝謝，肯，謝謝，安德魯。看，正如你所指出的，上半年的波動性比我們想像的要高得多。這影響了我們的結果。正如肯所說，去年秋天我們的申請率非常好。

We had the delayed start to the season. We sure have had some supply constraints. That said, looking forward, the fundamentals remain really strong here. Global demand continues to outstrip global production increases.

我們推遲了賽季的開始。我們肯定有一些供應限制。也就是說，展望未來，這裡的基本面仍然非常強勁。全球需求繼續超過全球產量增長。

As you mentioned, the EU gas pricing remains high, leading to challenges there, which we'll keep an eye on is the conversion cost of ammonia into -- sorry, natural gas into ammonia and also ammonium nitrate. And you can see that current pricing capacity starts to get shut in, in Europe.

正如你所提到的，歐盟的天然氣價格仍然很高，導致那裡面臨挑戰，我們將密切關注氨轉化為 - 抱歉，天然氣轉化為氨和硝酸銨的成本。而且您可以看到，在歐洲，當前的定價能力開始受到限制。

Chinese export reductions remain in place. There are -- I think the only of export of about 750,000 tonnes in the first half. Our outlook is probably going to be around 2 million, 2.5 million for the full year. That's quite a lot down from normal levels of 3 million to 5 million tonnes.

中國出口減少仍然存在。有——我認為上半年唯一的出口量約為750,000噸。我們的前景可能會在 200 萬左右，全年為 250 萬。這比正常水平的 300 萬噸到 500 萬噸要低很多。

In addition, we're excited about the potential we see in the growth of low carbon. So I think despite the volatility we saw in the first half, we think we see a really good outlook for the second half and beyond. But Jason, I don't know if you want to add anything?

此外，我們對低碳增長的潛力感到興奮。因此，我認為儘管我們在上半年看到了波動，但我們認為下半年及以後的前景非常好。但是傑森，我不知道你是否想補充什麼？

Andrew, I guess specifically, when talking about the outlook on benchmark prices, as you say, we've seen significant volatility in the last couple of weeks with global -- of global ammonia and urea prices and even in urea prices coming up in North America. I think if we look towards the fourth quarter of the year, we have sort of typical seasonal improvement in prices in the forecast as is normally the case, and we expect a constrained and tightened market.

安德魯，我想具體來說，當談到基準價格的前景時，正如你所說，我們在過去幾週看到全球氨和尿素價格甚至北方尿素價格出現大幅波動美國。我認為，如果我們展望今年第四季度，我們會像往常一樣在預測中看到典型的季節性價格上漲，我們預計市場會受到限制和收緊。

That said, relative to the current market conditions, that seasonal increase should be relatively modest. And we certainly don't have included in forecast a return to prices as they were in the first half of the year.

也就是說，相對於當前的市場狀況，季節性增長應該相對溫和。我們當然沒有像今年上半年那樣將價格回歸包括在預測中。

But if you look at where natural gas prices are today in Europe and the impact that's having on production shutting down, certainly, marginal cost is even above where prices peaked at the first part of the year.

但如果你看看今天歐洲的天然氣價格以及它對停產的影響，當然，邊際成本甚至高於今年上半年的價格峰值。

Your next question comes from Jacob Bout of CIBC.

您的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Jacob Bout。

My question is on potash demand. You're guiding down slightly for potash volumes in 2022. How much of this is a reflection of farmers pushing back to higher prices versus a compressed spring? Maybe you can comment a bit on the U.S. summer fill program. And then what are your expectations for the second half for Brazil given the rising inventory levels there? Or is the expectation to export more into the lower-priced markets like China and India?

我的問題是鉀肥需求。您在 2022 年略微下調鉀肥產量。這在多大程度上反映了農民推回更高的價格而不是春季壓縮？也許你可以評論一下美國的夏季填充計劃。那麼鑑於巴西的庫存水平不斷上升，您對巴西下半年的預期是什麼？還是期望更多地出口到中國和印度等低價市場？

Great. Well, thank you, Jacob, for the question. Yes, maybe what we'll do is just sort of go around the world. As it relates to inventories that we're seeing and how we're expecting the balance of the year to unfold here. So it is true, yes, that we had, as just mentioned, that strong fall application season in 2021.

偉大的。好吧，謝謝你，雅各布，提出這個問題。是的，也許我們要做的只是環遊世界。因為它與我們看到的庫存以及我們預計今年的餘額將如何在這裡展開有關。因此，是的，正如剛才提到的，我們確實在 2021 年經歷了那個強勁的秋季申請季。

And then the compressed spring and again, some shift in crop mix in some prevent client area, which led to lower application rates. So coming out of the spring, it is true that we had some carryover volumes on potash in North America.

然後是壓縮的春天，一次又一次地，作物組合的一些變化在一些阻止客戶區域，這導致了較低的施用率。因此，從春季開始，我們確實在北美有一些鉀肥結轉量。

And so therefore, down -- Nutrien down some volumes in that region. Now we just are closing our summer fill program and filling up our Q3 order book at the moment. But we don't expect those North American volumes. We expect a strong fall application season and the backdrop with the ag fundamentals is strong in North America.

因此，下降 - Nutrien 在該地區下降了一些數量。現在我們正在關閉我們的夏季補貨計劃並填寫我們的第三季度訂單。但我們預計不會有北美的銷量。我們預計秋季申請季將強勁，北美農業基本面強勁。

But at the same time, we don't expect a recovery of those volumes in North America. That said, when we say it's 61 million to 64 million tonnes, we believe it's a supply-constrained world. And again, with the backdrop of the fundamentals, growers in all parts of the world are still incentivized to maximize yield and lay down the appropriate agronomic level of crop nutrients.

但與此同時，我們預計北美的這些銷量不會恢復。也就是說，當我們說它是 6100 萬噸到 6400 萬噸時，我們認為這是一個供應受限的世界。同樣，在基本面的背景下，世界各地的種植者仍然受到激勵，以最大限度地提高產量並降低作物營養的適當農藝水平。

As you say, in Brazil, imports were up in that part of the world for the first half, and it's really related to -- first of all, the conflict in Ukraine didn't start impacting things until, obviously, after February. So -- and shipments into Brazil were up 30% -- 37% year-over-year, and we're seeing high port inventories.

正如你所說，在巴西，上半年世界該地區的進口量有所增加，這實際上與 - 首先，烏克蘭的衝突顯然直到 2 月之後才開始影響事情。所以 - 到巴西的出貨量同比增長 30% - 37%，我們看到港口庫存很高。

As they prepare for their planting season, we know that those port inventories will be moving inland and are moving inland. We also know that with those port inventories at the moment, they still only have about 50% coverage for their planting season. So we know that the Brazilians will be back in the market buying for their big planting season.

當他們為種植季節做準備時，我們知道這些港口庫存將向內陸轉移，並且正在向內陸轉移。我們還知道，就目前的港口庫存而言，他們在種植季節的覆蓋率仍然只有 50% 左右。因此，我們知道巴西人將重返市場，為他們的大種植季節進行採購。

If we go to China, we know that inventories are significantly down. Their imports were down 11% year-over-year in the first half, and we put port inventories at sort of 1.8 million tonnes. So those are 5-year lows for port inventories, and it's really related to the fact that as the lowest priced market in the world, China is not getting the volumes that it needs. And the same is true for India, which, again, shipments down about [37%] in the first half compared to last year. And inventories in that country are 550,000 to 600,000 tonnes. They're very, very low. And again, just not getting the volume given where pricing is at.

如果我們去中國，我們知道庫存明顯下降。他們上半年的進口量同比下降 11%，我們預計港口庫存為 180 萬噸。因此，這是港口庫存的 5 年低點，這確實與中國作為世界上價格最低的市場沒有得到它需要的數量有關。印度也是如此，與去年相比，上半年的出貨量再次下降了約 [37%]。該國的庫存為550,000至600,000噸。他們非常非常低。再一次，只是沒有得到定價所在的數量。

And then finally, I'd just say in Southeast Asia, those prices migrated up. We've seen the first half strong on oil prices. And so we saw actually convergence of price for standard, very similar to what granular product were selling for in Brazil. So in other words, strong demand, but we don't believe that Southeast Asia will get the volume they need either this year just due to supply constraints.

最後，我只想說在東南亞，這些價格上漲了。我們已經看到上半年油價強勁。因此，我們看到標準的價格實際上趨於一致，與巴西的顆粒產品銷售價格非常相似。換句話說，需求強勁，但我們認為東南亞今年也不會因為供應限製而獲得他們需要的數量。

The last thing I'll say, Jacob, is one of the things we are seeing is for those places that have inventory like North America, albeit due to the delayed spring, like Brazil with some port inventory just a moment.

雅各布，我要說的最後一件事是，我們所看到的事情之一是那些像北美這樣有庫存的地方，儘管是由於春季延遲，比如巴西的港口庫存只有一會兒。

We see growers just sort of waiting at these price levels to just-in-time purchasing or last-minute purchasing. Yet again, we know with the strong backdrop of ag fundamentals, we fully expect that they'll be compelled to lay down crop nutrients, but that it will be a supply-constrained market.

我們看到種植者只是在這些價格水平上等待及時採購或最後一刻採購。再一次，我們知道在農業基本面強勁的背景下，我們完全預計他們將被迫放下作物養分，但這將是一個供應受限的市場。

Your next question comes from Joel Jackson of BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

Staying on potash. If I look at where you think pricing is going to play out and what your book looks like, we've seen some other competitors talk about some expecting a price decrease in the third quarter from a realized perspective as you play around with what's going on with spot prices and in the midstream in China, India and other things. What do you expect for pricing in the third quarter into the fourth quarter for what you have booked?

堅持鉀肥。如果我看看你認為定價將在哪裡發揮作用以及你的書是什麼樣的，我們已經看到其他一些競爭對手談論一些從實際的角度預計第三季度價格下降，因為你在玩正在發生的事情與現貨價格和中游在中國，印度和其他東西。對於您所預訂的產品，您對第三季度到第四季度的定價有何期望？

Yes, thank you for the question. Yes, what I would say is potash among crop nutrients, and certainly compared to nitrogen, has been a little bit more stable in terms of pricing. We have seen some slight softening, again just some seasonal softening here and a place like Brazil, compared to its season. And we're in this window where we're heading in the Northern Hemisphere into a fall application season, which we expect to be a wide open season and all these things.

是的，謝謝你的提問。是的，我要說的是作物養分中的鉀肥，當然與氮相比，在定價方面更穩定一些。與季節相比，我們已經看到一些輕微的軟化，再次只是一些季節性軟化，這里和巴西這樣的地方。我們正處於這個窗口，我們將在北半球進入秋季申請季節，我們預計這將是一個開放的季節和所有這些事情。

So as we head into Q3 and Q4, we're looking at pricing in all these markets and saying that's probably -- there's some stability there at the moment and sort of forecasting that prices will remain in and around these levels into the balance of 2022.

因此，當我們進入第三季度和第四季度時，我們正在研究所有這些市場的定價，並說這可能是——目前那裡有一些穩定，並且預測價格將保持在這些水平或附近，直到 2022 年的餘額.

I mean, of course that's not true necessarily for India and China with those very low in-country inventories, will they be compelled to negotiate a contract sooner rather than later in 2022, that could be possible. But for the spot markets, like I said, we're sort of forecasting in and around these levels for the balance of the year.

我的意思是，當然，對於國內庫存非常低的印度和中國來說，這不一定是正確的，他們是否會被迫在 2022 年更早而不是晚些時候談判合同，這是可能的。但是對於現貨市場，就像我說的那樣，我們在某種程度上預測今年餘下時間的這些水平。

Your next question comes from Steve Byrne of Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的史蒂夫·伯恩。

Yes. I'm interested in what level of fertilizer buying your retail business has made for this next crop year. Clearly, the wholesale side of your business is pretty bold up about pricing for nitrogen and potash in the fall.

是的。我對您的零售業務為下一個作物年度購買的肥料水平感興趣。顯然，你的批發業務在秋季對氮和鉀肥的定價非常大膽。

Is your -- the retail side of your business in agreement and loading up and aggressively buying to capture that margin this fall and next spring. It seems like there was some of that captured in the first half of this year. And maybe a similar comment on crop chemicals, you clearly -- on the retail side of the business, clearly captured margin on crop chems, was that because of purchasing well in advance of the inflationary run earlier in the year?

您的業務的零售方面是否同意並加載並積極購買以在今年秋季和明年春季獲得利潤。似乎有一些是在今年上半年捕獲的。也許對農作物化學品有類似的評論，你很清楚 - 在業務的零售方面，清楚地捕獲農作物化學品的利潤，是因為在今年早些時候的通貨膨脹運行之前就購買了嗎？

Right. Well, thank you, Steve, for the question. And yes, our retail group has been successful strategically procuring in this rising price environment, and as you say, reflected in our first half results in our retail business.

正確的。好吧，謝謝你，史蒂夫，這個問題。是的，我們的零售集團在這種價格上漲的環境中成功地進行了戰略採購，正如您所說，這反映在我們零售業務的上半年業績中。

Now heading into the second half, we see perhaps some moderation on that as you say, just given some leveling off of crop nutrient prices. But at the same time, retail business procuring for what they see is -- what we see is an open window for a fall application season.

現在進入下半年，正如你所說，我們可能會看到一些緩和，只是考慮到作物養分價格的一些平穩。但與此同時，他們所看到的零售業務採購是 - 我們看到的是秋季申請季節的開放窗口。

It's also true that we very strategically secured some crop chemistry in the fall of last year, and that's part of the success in the first half of 2022 as well. But I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi to provide -- he has more color on that. So Jeff, over to you.

去年秋天，我們非常戰略性地確保了一些作物化學，這也是事實，這也是 2022 年上半年成功的一部分。但我會把它交給 Jeff Tarsi 來提供——他對此有更多的色彩。所以傑夫，交給你了。

And -- yes, I'll take it into 2 categories. Maybe we'll start with fertilizer purchasing and -- with late start that we got to the spring, one of the fears I had was we're going to have a really tight window for fall application this fall. But with the weather developments we've seen over the last month, this crop is really progressing really nicely, and we're seeing the maturity dates move up quite a bit.

而且--是的，我將其分為兩類。也許我們將從購買化肥開始，並且 - 由於我們到了春天的起步較晚，我擔心的一個問題是今年秋天我們將有一個非常緊的秋季應用窗口。但是隨著上個月我們看到的天氣變化，這種作物的進展非常好，我們看到成熟日期提前了很多。

So I'm much more encouraged that we could have a lot more open window for fall application than I had anticipated when we got this crop planted for this year. As you know, we move a significant volume of nutrients throughout the year and we're always layering product, and we're starting to fill our sheds now for anticipation of the fall. And we think that growers are more -- number one, land prices remain very high, so balance sheets are extremely strong right now.

因此，當我們今年種植這種作物時，我們可以為秋季應用提供比我預期的更多的開放窗口，這讓我倍受鼓舞。如您所知，我們全年運送大量的營養物質，並且我們總是分層產品，我們現在開始填滿我們的棚子以備秋季。我們認為種植者更多——第一，土地價格仍然很高，因此資產負債表目前非常強勁。

We think that cash margins are going to be good again in what yield points out to. And these growers are really adapted now to want to get a real head start on their nutrient applications. And most of them don't want to put it off to the spring if they can help it.

我們認為，在收益率所表明的情況下，現金利潤率將再次好轉。這些種植者現在真的適應了，想要在他們的養分應用上真正搶占先機。如果他們能幫上忙，他們中的大多數人都不想把它推遲到春天。

So if we get a good open fall, I'm going to anticipate that we're going to have a lot of movement as it relates to NP&K. And our indications today are, and I don't put a lot of weight on crop acreage intentions today, but everything points that we could see another 2 billion to 3 billion acres of corn next year.

因此，如果我們獲得良好的開放式秋季，我預計我們將會有很多與 NP&K 相關的活動。我們今天的跡像是，我今天並沒有過多強調作物種植面積的意圖，但一切都表明明年我們可以看到另外 20 億至 30 億英畝的玉米。

And that's going to even put more emphasis on, I think, wanting to get some fall nutrients applied. As it relates to the crop protection side of the business, as you mentioned, we had a tremendous first half with our crop protection business.

我認為，這甚至會更加強調想要獲得一些秋季營養。正如您所提到的，由於它與業務的作物保護方面有關，我們的作物保護業務上半年表現出色。

Our revenues were up 16.5%. Our gross margins were remarkable at [up] 43%. And a lot of that, Steve -- and we were very public about that in our past calls, but we started layering product in last year, really just as quick as we got out of the crop in summer season. Anticipate a lot of supply chain constraints.

我們的收入增長了 16.5%。我們的毛利率高達 43%，非常可觀。很多，史蒂夫 - 我們在過去的電話會議中對此非常公開，但我們在去年開始分層產品，真的就像我們在夏季收割時一樣快。預計會有很多供應鏈限制。

And I think you'll see us do something fairly similar to that this fall as well because as we're talking to our strategic suppliers, there's going to be a number of products that will be constrained again going into the '23 season.

而且我認為你會看到我們在今年秋天也做一些與此非常相似的事情，因為當我們與我們的戰略供應商交談時，將會有許多產品將在 23 季再次受到限制。

So we've got -- as you know, we've got an excellent supply chain asset base. We're able to move product in quickly and back out but we'll use some of those same strategies that we had last year and get ourselves positioned to be able to service our growers going into the '23 season.

所以我們有 - 如你所知，我們有一個優秀的供應鏈資產基礎。我們能夠快速將產品移入並退出，但我們將使用我們去年採用的一些相同策略，並讓自己定位於能夠為進入 23 季的種植者提供服務。

And again, the same way around our proprietary side of our business. We had an extremely strong proprietary [plant] the first half. We got a lot of momentum going with that side of the business. And I can't even tell you how many supply chain constraints we hit during this past year in keeping our manufacturing plants going and such. But we feel like we're going to position ourselves nicely for the upcoming season as well.

再一次，在我們業務的專有方面也是如此。上半年我們有一個非常強大的專有[工廠]。我們在業務的這方面獲得了很大的動力。而且我什至無法告訴您在過去一年中我們在保持製造工廠運轉等方面遇到了多少供應鏈限制。但我們覺得我們也會為即將到來的賽季做好準備。

Your next question comes from Adam Samuelson of Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

I was hoping to maybe keep going on the discussion on application rates and demand. And I guess just looking at your retail crop nutrient business in North America, the first half of your volumes were down 21% year-over-year. If we do kind of LTM, they're down 14%.

我希望可能繼續討論申請率和需求。而且我想看看你們在北美的零售作物營養業務，你們上半年的銷量同比下降了 21%。如果我們做某種 LTM，它們會下降 14%。

So I guess I'm just trying to get a sense of how much do you think applications, especially on P&K but even on maybe nitrogen in some cases because of the way the spring played out were below normal? Do you think that's a pretty accurate representation of the market kind of over the last 12 months?

所以我想我只是想了解一下你認為應用程序有多少，尤其是在 P&K 上，但在某些情況下甚至可能在氮氣上，因為春天的表現低於正常水平？你認為這是對過去 12 個月市場的相當準確的反映嗎？

And I guess, along those lines as well, we've been in a rising price environment for the last year that those price increases have kind of abated for now. How should we think about kind of the per tonne margins on crop nutrients in the back half and into next year if we maybe have a little bit more stability on the pricing side?

而且我想，沿著這些思路，去年我們一直處於價格上漲的環境中，這些價格上漲現在已經有所減弱。如果我們在定價方面可能有一點穩定性，我們應該如何考慮下半年和明年作物養分的每噸利潤？

Adam, thank you for the question. Yes. So we would characterize the first half more as just the compressed season. And again, a strong fall in 2021 in terms of application rates. And again, it's compressed spring, which we just didn't see as many crop nutrients go to ground and therefore, some carryover.

亞當，謝謝你的問題。是的。因此，我們將上半年更多地描述為壓縮季節。再一次，2021 年的申請率大幅下降。再一次，這是壓縮的春天，我們只是沒有看到有很多作物養分進入地面，因此有一些結轉。

And that's really the story of the spring in North America. I think I'll just hand it over to Jeff. Jeff, if you can just carry on with the discussion we just had as it relates to application rates and then heading into the balance of the year here as it relates to certainly perhaps some moderation in margins on crop nutrients, but I mean, we haven't grown organically as well, and you can see that reflected certainly in retail's results as it relates to our supply chain, as it relates to expansion of sales to our digital channel and, certainly, our proprietary products. But Jeff, over to you to provide some more color.

這就是北美春天的真實故事。我想我會把它交給傑夫。傑夫，如果你能繼續我們剛剛討論的與施用率有關的討論，然後在這裡進入今年的平衡，因為它肯定可能與作物養分的利潤率有所緩和，但我的意思是，我們沒有它也沒有有機地增長，你可以看到零售業的業績肯定反映了這一點，因為它與我們的供應鏈有關，因為它涉及到我們的數字渠道的銷售擴張，當然還有我們的專有產品。但是傑夫，給你提供更多的顏色。

Yes, Adam, thanks. And look, actually, I think the story -- when you start looking at tonnage and rates and things like that, I think the story actually it goes further back than just a strong fall of '21. You have to remember that we had 2 record falls from an application rate standpoint, both '20 and '21.

是的，亞當，謝謝。看，實際上，我認為這個故事——當你開始關注噸位和費率之類的東西時，我認為這個故事實際上比 21 年的強勁下跌還要早。您必須記住，從申請率的角度來看，我們有 2 個記錄下降，分別是 '20 和 '21。

I know in my career in this business, I've never seen 2 falls as strong as those 2 back to back. And so when you look at coming into -- and we have an ability in North America. We don't have the same ability in Latin America, Australia. But you have an ability to bank some nutrients with the soil types that we have here in North America.

我知道在我從事這項業務的職業生涯中，我從來沒有見過 2 的跌幅像那些 2 背靠背那樣強大。所以當你考慮進入 - 我們在北美有能力。我們在拉丁美洲、澳大利亞沒有同樣的能力。但是你有能力用我們在北美的土壤類型儲存一些營養。

And so when you look at coming into the '22 planting season, and I think we said and we even forecasted our tonnage would be back in the spring of '22. But when you look to the fact that you got into a late planting season, and growers -- a lot of these growers had their crops forward contracted. And you got to a point where they said, "You know what, I've had heavy, heavy applications, particularly from a PNK standpoint the last 2 falls."

因此，當您看到進入 22 年種植季節時，我想我們說過，我們甚至預測我們的噸位將在 22 年春天恢復。但是，當您看到您進入後期種植季節和種植者的事實時，這些種植者中的許多人的作物遠期收縮。你到了他們說的地步，“你知道嗎，我有過大量的申請，特別是從 PNK 的角度來看，最近 2 次倒下。”

We do soil testing on all this soil, so we kind of know what's available there for the crop. They've got an urgency, most of them had an urgency to want to get in and get that crop planted. And then we take it once we got in crop. And we've seen our full year nutritional rates increase this spring quite a bit because of that.

我們對所有這些土壤進行土壤測試，所以我們知道那裡有什麼可用於作物。他們有一種緊迫感，他們中的大多數人都渴望進入並種植那種作物。然後我們一到莊稼就拿它。我們已經看到我們今年春天的全年營養率因此而增加了很多。

So that's one factor as you look at it. The other factor is, is when you look at crop shifts and when I look at crop shifts, I look specifically geographically where those crop shifts take place. And so if you look at corn, where we lost corn to soybeans, we lost that in a big percentage basis in the South. And we have a tremendous retail network in that and a tremendous retail presence in that area.

所以這是你看待它的一個因素。另一個因素是，當您查看作物輪班時，當我查看作物輪班時，我會特別關注這些作物輪班發生的地理位置。所以如果你看看玉米，我們把玉米輸給了大豆，我們在南方損失了很大比例。我們在這方面擁有龐大的零售網絡，並在該地區擁有龐大的零售業務。

And so when you shift a couple of million acres of corn to soybeans, from a nutritional demand standpoint, that changes significantly. And we came into this season thinking we'd plant somewhere between 92 million and 93 million acres of corn; go by what USDA has today, we're more around 89 million acres of planted corn and stuff.

因此，從營養需求的角度來看，當你將幾百萬英畝的玉米轉為大豆時，情況就會發生顯著變化。我們進入這個季節時認為我們會種植 9200 萬到 9300 萬英畝的玉米；按照美國農業部今天的情況，我們大約有 8900 萬英畝種植玉米和其他東西。

So there's a -- we've listed the factors, but there are multiple factors that were involved. And then once you get in season with it, I'm sure there were some growers that cut some rates back. But they cut their rates back because they felt like they had carryover in the soil.

所以有一個 - 我們已經列出了這些因素，但涉及到多個因素。然後，一旦你適應了它，我相信有些種植者會降低一些利率。但他們降低了利率，因為他們覺得土壤中有殘留物。

One thing I always point out with growers today is, look, just on the seed, if we take corn, they have $150 an acre investment in the seed and seed treatment. That doesn't include what they have [in for]. There are no growers out there that's going to make that kind of commitment to cost on a per acre basis and then come in and say, well, I will greatly reduce my end PNK levels, knowing that's going to affect yield at the end of the day.

我今天總是向種植者指出的一件事是，看，就種子而言，如果我們種植玉米，他們在種子和種子處理方面每英畝有 150 美元的投資。這不包括他們所擁有的[in for]。沒有種植者會做出這種以每英畝為基礎的成本承諾，然後進來說，好吧，我會大大降低我的最終 PNK 水平，因為我知道這會影響到最後的產量天。

So our growers are much more sophisticated in that manner. Again, we do a lot of soil testing. It's pretty much our applications to date are based on science. I think you also asked a question around margins, and -- look, we did have tremendous -- while tonnage was down, I think our gross margins on a per tonne basis were up by $68 year-over-year, which was which was amazing.

所以我們的種植者在這種方式上要復雜得多。同樣，我們做了很多土壤測試。迄今為止，我們的應用程序幾乎都是基於科學的。我想你還問了一個關於利潤率的問題，而且 - 看，我們確實有巨大的 - 雖然噸位下降，但我認為我們的每噸毛利率同比增長了 68 美元，這是驚人。

And when I look even deeper into that and I look at the nutritional contribution that our proprietary nutritionals made, they were $38 of our margin this year in the fertilizer shift versus $39 versus $28 a year ago. So again, we had a tremendous step-up with our proprietary nutritionals, that's in the face of the fact that they got -- they went ahead and put the planters in the field. They decided they'd treat crop more in season than maybe in the past.

當我更深入地研究這一點時，我查看了我們專有營養品所做出的營養貢獻，今年在化肥轉移中占我們利潤的 38 美元，而一年前為 39 美元和 28 美元。所以再一次，我們在專有營養品方面取得了巨大的進步，這是面對他們得到的事實——他們繼續將種植機放在田間。他們決定比過去更多地對待季節作物。

So I feel good about where the nutritionals went out at. I feel good about how growers are making decisions based on that. And every one of them out there in a high commodity price environment are shooting for the top ends of yields.

所以我對營養品的來源感覺很好。我對種植者如何基於此做出決策感到滿意。在大宗商品價格高企的環境中，他們每個人都在爭取收益率的最高端。

Your next question comes from Steve Hansen of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

您的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Steve Hansen。請繼續。

I just wanted to follow up on some of the remarks earlier around potential contract discussions through the back half of the year here. Do you want to perhaps elaborate a little bit more on sort of the timing and expectations around contract discussions with China and/or India and maybe perhaps the timing of those and just any general sense you can on price now, I know that's a harder one.

我只是想跟進一些關於今年下半年潛在合同討論的評論。您是否想更詳細地說明與中國和/或印度進行合同討論的時間和期望，也許這些時間和您現在可以對價格的任何一般意義，我知道這更難.

Yes. Well, thank you, Steven. And -- yes, we're just -- I think as everyone is watching inventories in those parts of the world, and -- it is true that certainly, and for a second, yes, we're seeing demand rationing, where potash is simply not going to ground based on availability. So it's not sort of traditional potash application rates dwindling the inventories in country.

是的。好吧，謝謝你，史蒂文。而且 - 是的，我們只是 - 我認為每個人都在關注世界這些地區的庫存，而且 - 確實，有一秒鐘，是的，我們看到需求配給，其中鉀肥根本不會基於可用性。因此，減少國內庫存的並不是傳統的鉀肥施用率。

So that said, in a place, again, as I mentioned earlier, it's only 550,000 tonnes sitting on the ground in that country. So very close to zero. So it's hard to say exactly when India will be back in the market. But if we say that there will be some reasonable nutrients going to ground, and we provided those ranges in the deck that we provided for this call, well, then you would expect that sometime this fall and maybe later fall, India would be back talking about a new contract.

也就是說，在某個地方，正如我之前提到的，在那個國家的地面上只有 550,000 噸。所以非常接近於零。所以很難說印度什麼時候會重新進入市場。但是，如果我們說會有一些合理的營養物質進入地面，並且我們在甲板上提供了我們為這次電話提供的那些範圍，那麼你會期望今年秋天的某個時候，也許是晚些時候，印度會回來說話關於新合同。

And then similarly, with China, where again, port inventories, it's sort of a 5-year low. And when we say 1.7 million tonnes sitting at port, we called it 1.5 million of that is the so-called strategic reserve. So very low inventories in China, and we do expect that China will lay down some volumes as well in this fall season.

同樣，對於中國來說，港口庫存也是5年來的最低點。當我們說170萬噸坐在港口時，我們稱其中150萬噸是所謂的戰略儲備。中國的庫存非常低，我們確實預計今年秋季中國也會減少一些庫存。

So -- like, India, again, we expect it's a 2022 event where they'll have to come have some discussions about new volumes at a new price. What that price will be in those contract markets? It's a great question, Steve.

所以 - 就像印度一樣，我們預計這是 2022 年的活動，他們將不得不以新的價格討論新的數量。這些合約市場的價格是多少？這是一個很好的問題，史蒂夫。

If we go around the world and we see where are standard grade markets trading today, we've seen Southeast Asia trade up to $1,000 a tonne. Now that's moderated somewhat, but standard grade, those are some of the biggest standard grade markets in the world trading at those levels. I expect, therefore, that the China and Indian contracts will have to come up significantly.

如果我們環遊世界，看看今天的標準品級市場在哪裡交易，我們已經看到東南亞的交易價格高達每噸 1,000 美元。現在這種情況有所緩和，但標準等級，這些是世界上在這些水平上交易的一些最大的標準等級市場。因此，我預計中國和印度的合同將不得不大幅增加。

Your next question comes from P.J. Juvekar of Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 P.J. Juvekar。

I have a question on seeds. Despite -- with those strong ag conditions this spring, seed sales were up only 4%. Can you break that down between price and volume? Because I think expectation was that price would be up mid-single digits. And then looking forward, what are your pricing expectations for next year given the higher input cost for seeds?

我有一個關於種子的問題。儘管今年春天農業條件強勁，但種子銷量僅增長了 4%。你能在價格和數量之間分解嗎？因為我認為預期價格會上漲中個位數。然後展望未來，鑑於種子投入成本較高，您對明年的定價預期是多少？

Great. Well, thank you for the question, P.J. And I'll pass that one over to Jeff Tarsi.

偉大的。好吧，謝謝你的問題，P.J. 我會把這個問題交給 Jeff Tarsi。

Yes, P.J. And look, when you look at it from a revenue basis and again, when you have crop shifts, so if you look at corn, an acre, again, I said anywhere from $125 to $150 an acre when you sell in corn seed. And if you shift that to soybean, you're shifting it from $50 to $60. So basically, you're cutting the revenue half in 2 when you make those shifts with it.

是的，P.J. 看，當你從收入基礎上看時，當你有作物輪班時，所以如果你看玉米，一英畝，我說當你賣玉米時，每英畝從 125 美元到 150 美元不等種子。如果你把它轉移到大豆上，你就會把它從 50 美元轉移到 60 美元。因此，基本上，當您進行這些轉變時，您會將收入減少一半。

If I look at our seed portfolio, we're very happy where we are through the first half on the seed side of the business. I might add, this past year, there was very little price increase on seed going into the '22 planting season with it. But look, our proprietary business was very strong through the first half. We grew our seed margins by 30% on our proprietary business.

如果我看看我們的種子投資組合，我們很高興我們在種子業務的上半年處於何種狀態。我可以補充一下，在過去的一年裡，進入 22 年種植季節的種子價格幾乎沒有上漲。但是看，我們的自營業務在上半年非常強勁。我們的自營業務的種子利潤增長了 30%。

We were up on revenue and margins really across all regions as it relates to the seed portfolio. And we've got an awful lot of momentum going in. Believe it or not, we've started our fall seed campaign here in the last week. And so -- we've got a lot of momentum going into that.

由於與種子投資組合有關，我們在所有地區的收入和利潤率都確實上升了。而且我們的勢頭非常強勁。信不信由你，我們上週在這裡開始了秋季種子活動。所以——我們在這方面有很大的動力。

Now you talked about seed pricing going forward. And I think that we'll see most of our seed suppliers that maybe missed that window last year to raise prices. I think we'll see something significantly different going into the '23 season. I think canola was probably likely going to be up 5% to 10%, corn could be up as high as 10% pricing going into '23, and indication that soybeans will be up from 8% to 10% going into '23.

現在你談到了未來的種子定價。而且我認為我們會看到我們的大多數種子供應商可能錯過了去年提高價格的那個窗口。我想我們會在 23 賽季看到一些明顯不同的東西。我認為油菜籽可能會上漲 5% 到 10%，玉米價格可能會在 23 年上漲 10%，並且表明大豆價格會從 8% 上漲到 10% 到 23 年。

So we're going to see a rise in seed costs going into this new crop year. We were particularly strong on our Dyna-Gro across our cotton, soybean and rice portfolio. And rice, this was our introductory year but Dyna-Gro 263, which we've had a tremendous amount of success in getting that in as well. So we think when this is done and the numbers aren't done for the year, but we think we'll see a market share increase across our seed portfolio this year.

因此，我們將看到進入這個新作物年的種子成本上升。我們在棉花、大豆和大米產品組合中的 Dyna-Gro 表現尤為強勁。還有大米，這是我們的入門年，但 Dyna-Gro 263，我們在獲得它方面也取得了巨大的成功。所以我們認為當這完成並且今年的數字還沒有完成時，但我們認為今年我們的種子投資組合中的市場份額將會增加。

Your next question comes from Christopher Parkinson of Mizuho.

您的下一個問題來自瑞穗的克里斯托弗·帕金森。

Just kind of a corollary of a bunch of these questions on potash, but it seems as though that Russians have figured out how to utilize their port systems and get some product out there, perhaps a little bit better than expected. But prices are still basically holding in.

只是這些關於鉀肥的一堆問題的推論，但似乎俄羅斯人已經想出瞭如何利用他們的港口系統並在那裡獲得一些產品，也許比預期的要好一點。但價格仍基本持穩。

It seems that Belarusians are kind of at the lower end of that in terms of normalized export rates. In terms of everybody trying to evaluate this over the next 2 to 3 years in terms of how tight the [SD] will actually be, what's your updated detailed assessment of that shortfall into next year, into 2023?

就標準化出口率而言，白俄羅斯人似乎處於低端。對於每個人都試圖在未來 2 到 3 年內根據 [SD] 的實際緊縮程度來評估這一點，您對明年到 2023 年的短缺的最新詳細評估是什麼？

I mean, how much can both countries really ultimately figure out to get more tonnes '23 versus '22? And just perhaps your major considerations.

我的意思是，兩國最終能真正計算出多少噸才能獲得更多噸 '23 與 '22？也許只是您的主要考慮因素。

Yes. Well, thanks, Chris, for the question. And -- yes, there's certainly a lot of moving parts. And we're all seeing reports of various forms of shipment that were not coming out of Russian and Belarus.

是的。好吧，謝謝克里斯，這個問題。而且 - 是的，肯定有很多活動部件。我們都看到了各種形式的貨物並非來自俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的報告。

Our estimate is that for the first half of 2022, Russian exports are down about 25%. So that's a pretty significant number. And then with Belarus still not having access to tidewater via Lithuania, we estimate that their first half shipments are down 50%.

我們估計，2022 年上半年，俄羅斯出口下降約 25%。所以這是一個相當可觀的數字。然後由於白俄羅斯仍然無法通過立陶宛獲得潮水，我們估計他們上半年的出貨量下降了 50%。

So really quite significant out of that part of the world. And again, recalling that shipments out of Russia at least weren't constrained in the first 2 months of this year. As we look forward, what -- for the balance of 2022 and into 2023, what might that look like? And -- yes, for 2022, again, we expect the Russian shipments could be constrained by as much as that 25% full year.

所以在世界的那個地方真的很重要。再次回顧一下，至少在今年前兩個月，從俄羅斯出口的貨物沒有受到限制。正如我們所期待的那樣，對於 2022 年的剩餘時間和 2023 年，這會是什麼樣子？而且——是的，到 2022 年，我們再次預計俄羅斯的出貨量可能會受到高達 25% 的全年限制。

And then similarly with Belarus for 2022, we expect exports could be constrained by 50% to 65% compared to 2021 level. So again, really quite significant. Our assumptions for 2023 show that out of Russia, at least, we'll see more volume coming and some channels will be developed.

然後與 2022 年的白俄羅斯類似，我們預計與 2021 年的水平相比，出口可能會受到 50% 至 65% 的限制。再說一次，真的很重要。我們對 2023 年的假設表明，至少在俄羅斯以外，我們會看到更多的交易量，並且會開發一些渠道。

After all, Russian potash is not sanctioned. It's just that financing activities in those segments are making it somewhat difficult at the moment. But for 2023, coming out of Russia, we think that production might be down in the range of, say, 5% to 20% from 2021 levels.

畢竟，俄羅斯鉀肥沒有受到製裁。只是這些領域的融資活動目前使其變得有些困難。但對於 2023 年，來自俄羅斯的產量可能會比 2021 年的水平下降 5% 到 20%。

And then out of Belarus, again, much more significant because of these challenges getting to port. And so out of Belarus, our assumption for 2023 is maybe 30% to 50% of production down from 2021 levels. So that's what's in our assumptions, in our numbers.

然後再一次離開白俄羅斯，因為港口面臨這些挑戰，意義重大得多。因此，在白俄羅斯以外，我們對 2023 年的假設可能是從 2021 年的水平下降 30% 到 50% 的產量。所以這就是我們的假設，我們的數字。

I know that, Chris, we see reports, for example, of Belarus looking at shipping volumes via containers through the ports of St. Petersburg and Vladivostok, that's -- I can tell you, I have experience with that from Canpotex, that's a real challenge.

我知道，克里斯，我們看到報告，例如，白俄羅斯通過聖彼得堡和符拉迪沃斯托克港口通過集裝箱查看運輸量，那是 - 我可以告訴你，我有來自 Canpotex 的經驗，這是真實的挑戰。

They're only talking about 2 million to 3 million tonnes. So actually, the volumes are relatively small, but even for 2 million tonnes, that's 80,000 containers of potash. And at the load port, those -- you need to tip up a container and stuff them full of potash, and even more challenging at the discharge port, they need to be equipped to tip those containers and empty them.

他們只是在談論200萬到300萬噸。所以實際上，數量相對較小，但即使是 200 萬噸，也就是 80,000 個鉀肥容器。在裝貨港，那些——你需要傾倒一個容器並把它們裝滿鉀鹽，在卸貨港更具挑戰性的是，它們需要配備傾倒這些容器並清空它們的裝備。

So I think it remains to be seen how successful that will be. But even if they're fully successful, it's only 2 million to 3 million tonnes, which, by the way, they have to do in order to meet the bottom end of our range.

所以我認為這會有多成功還有待觀察。但即使他們完全成功，也只有 200 萬到 300 萬噸，順便說一句，他們必須這樣做才能達到我們範圍的底端。

So that's at least how at the moment, we're seeing things unfold and, hence, our view that the fundamentals for potash are going to remain strong right through 2022, right through 2023, and then it's going to be a supply-constrained market.

因此，至少目前我們看到的情況是這樣的，因此，我們認為鉀肥的基本面將在 2022 年和 2023 年保持強勁，然後它將是一個供應受限的市場.

Your next question comes from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Wondering if you can just give us an update on sort of how your digital strategy in retail is progressing. Any new initiatives or just sort of some benchmarks as well as maybe what you're seeing competitively if your larger competitors are advancing these strategies as well.

想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關您的零售數字戰略進展情況的最新信息。任何新舉措或只是一些基準，以及如果您的較大競爭對手也在推進這些策略，您可能會看到競爭性的東西。

Great. Thank you, Vincent, and yes, here we are, and it's just past the middle of 2022, and we have pretty much surpassed what we put through our digital platform in 2021. So just over $2 billion, and we're on track to meet our target of $3 billion of sales through digital.

偉大的。謝謝你，文森特，是的，我們到了，剛剛過去 2022 年年中，我們已經遠遠超過了我們在 2021 年通過數字平台投入的資金。所以剛剛超過 20 億美元，我們有望實現實現我們通過數字化實現 30 億美元銷售額的目標。

And a lot of that has to do with all the work we're doing on digital agronomy, and success out in the field. But I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi to give you a little more detail and color.

這在很大程度上與我們在數字農學方面所做的所有工作以及該領域的成功有關。但我會把它交給 Jeff Tarsi 給你更多的細節和顏色。

Yes, Vincent, thanks. And as Ken mentioned, we continue to make a lot of progress as it relates to our digital initiative, our digital platform. Our people in the field are really engaged in what we call a digitally enabled sales. As Ken mentioned, we put over $2 billion through that category year-to-date.

是的，文森特，謝謝。正如 Ken 所提到的，我們繼續在與我們的數字計劃、我們的數字平台相關的方面取得很大進展。我們在該領域的人員真正參與了我們所說的數字化銷售。正如肯所說，今年迄今為止，我們在該類別中投入了超過 20 億美元。

And our people getting really comfortable with using these tools. What I'm excited about is this fall we'll release our Echelon 3.0 as it relates to digital, and that's pretty much around our precision agriculture. And I think that's where the real value capture is for our business and our industry.

我們的員工對使用這些工具感到非常自在。令我興奮的是，今年秋天我們將發布與數字相關的 Echelon 3.0，這幾乎與我們的精準農業有關。我認為這才是我們的業務和行業真正的價值獲取所在。

Our growers are getting more and more keen to using these digital tools and our agronomists particularly -- this gives them a heck of an advantage in being able to look at our growers, look at it by -- on a by-field basis and make recommendations that just use a lot of data and a simulation to make -- to build the best crop solution going forward that allows our growers to maximize ROI, and it also allows us an opportunity to capture margin as well with it.

我們的種植者越來越熱衷於使用這些數字工具，尤其是我們的農藝師——這給了他們很大的優勢，他們能夠查看我們的種植者，通過——在田間的基礎上進行觀察，並製作僅使用大量數據和模擬來製作的建議 - 構建未來的最佳作物解決方案，使我們的種植者能夠最大限度地提高投資回報率，同時也讓我們有機會獲得利潤。

And so we're -- it continues to be a work in progress, and I don't think we'll ever see it not be a work in progress. As new technology comes along we're really busy out trying to map as many of our growers fields as possible as it relates to that. And again, like I mentioned earlier, we've started our fall seed campaign. And a big part of our fall seed campaign right now is being able to use our seed selector, which is embedded in our digital platform. This helps our agronomists make the best decisions going forward for our growers on what germplasm we want to place in which fields, and again, to give our growers the best opportunity for ROI.

所以我們 - 它仍然是一項正在進行的工作，我認為我們永遠不會看到它不是一項正在進行的工作。隨著新技術的出現，我們真的很忙，試圖盡可能多地繪製與此相關的種植園地圖。再一次，就像我之前提到的，我們已經開始了我們的秋季種子活動。現在，我們秋季種子活動的很大一部分是能夠使用我們的種子選擇器，它嵌入在我們的數字平台中。這有助於我們的農藝師為我們的種植者做出最好的決定，決定我們希望在哪些領域放置什麼種質，並再次為我們的種植者提供獲得投資回報的最佳機會。

It is also -- our digital platform is also core to our platform around sustainability in carbon and it will play a very, very essential role in that. We had spring pilots last year as it related to carbon sustainability and we've been very public and committed that we're increasing those acreage by 3x this year.

它也是 - 我們的數字平台也是我們圍繞碳可持續性的平台的核心，它將在其中發揮非常非常重要的作用。去年我們進行了春季試點，因為它與碳可持續性有關，我們非常公開並承諾今年將這些種植面積增加 3 倍。

And so that platform plays a significant role. And as you know, sustainability and carbon are going to play an increasing role going forward in the future of agriculture, and I don't think that anybody out there is better positioned than Nutrien and Nutrien Ag Solutions is to capture that value going forward.

因此，該平台起著重要作用。如您所知，可持續性和碳將在未來的農業中發揮越來越大的作用，我認為沒有人比 Nutrien 和 Nutrien Ag Solutions 更能把握未來的價值。

Your next question comes from Josh Spector of UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

I was just wondering if you could share some thoughts on China. And specifically, anything you're seeing on production of nitrogen and phosphate. And I know we're in an export constrained environment right now given the limitations there. But is there any sign of an inventory build or change in production strategy that could foreshadow any shift into next year?

我只是想知道你是否可以分享一些關於中國的想法。具體來說，你看到的關於氮和磷酸鹽生產的任何事情。而且我知道，鑑於那裡的限制，我們現在處於出口受限的環境中。但是，是否有任何跡象表明庫存增加或生產策略發生變化，這可能預示著明年的任何轉變？

Well, thank you for the question, Josh, and I'll pass that one over to Jason Newton.

好吧，謝謝你的問題，喬希，我會把這個問題交給傑森牛頓。

Josh. Yes, we've seen, I think, to some extent, the industry in China, both from a nitrogen production standpoint and phosphate. I get surprised to some extent by the extended restrictions on exports that have taken place.

喬希。是的，我認為，從氮生產和磷酸鹽的角度來看，我們在某種程度上已經看到了中國的工業。我對已經發生的擴大出口限制在某種程度上感到驚訝。

And so for the second half of 2022, urea exports are really constrained and restricted by the government and on phosphate, export quotas have been put in place, which will reduce export volumes. Prior to that, in the year, urea production actually was up year-over-year.

所以2022年下半年，尿素出口確實受到了政府的約束和限制，對磷酸鹽，出口配額已經到位，這將減少出口量。在此之前，在這一年中，尿素產量實際上是同比增長的。

So despite the fact that exports are down significantly, in the first half of the year, down from over 2 million tonnes last year to just over 700,000 tonnes this year, production rates were up, which in part points to higher domestic use, but I think to your point, also domestic inventory is rising.

因此，儘管今年上半年出口量大幅下降，從去年的超過 200 萬噸下降到今年的剛剛超過 70 萬噸，但生產率還是上升了，這在一定程度上表明國內使用量增加，但我想想你的觀點，國內庫存也在上升。

And we've seen operating rates decline since those added restrictions have come into place. And domestic Chinese prices are declining so that the spread between the domestic Chinese price and the export price has widened as a result.

自從這些附加限制實施以來，我們已經看到開工率下降。中國國內價格正在下降，因此中國國內價格與出口價格之間的價差擴大了。

On the phosphate side, capacity utilization rates have definitely declined. They're estimated to be below 50% today. And that's one of the factors in phosphate that's reduced global sulfur demand, and you've seen a dramatic decline in sulfur prices as a result in part due to the reduced demand from China.

在磷酸鹽方面，產能利用率明顯下降。他們今天估計低於 50%。這是導致全球硫需求減少的磷酸鹽因素之一，您已經看到硫價格大幅下跌的部分原因是中國需求減少。

As we go into 2023, the big factor to watch will be how international prices perform versus the domestic market in China because the government in China appears to want to target lower prices for Chinese growers. And with constrained supplies globally, it certainly appears to be supportive of international prices. And so we'd expect some form of restrictions to continue into '23.

隨著我們進入 2023 年，需要關注的主要因素將是國際價格與中國國內市場的表現，因為中國政府似乎希望針對中國種植者降低價格。在全球供應受限的情況下，它似乎肯定會支持國際價格。因此，我們預計某種形式的限制將持續到 23 年。

Your next question comes from Ben Isaacson of Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Ben Isaacson。

Your competitors are increasingly taking advantage of nitrogen export opportunities and moving product outside of the U.S. Their system obviously is set up a little bit different than yours. As you look forward over the next 5-plus years, and of course, you're building a new plant in the U.S. Gulf, do you see yourself able to take advantage of export opportunities for nitrogen, not just on the clean ammonia side, but really for overall nitrogen?

您的競爭對手越來越多地利用氮出口機會並將產品轉移到美國以外。他們的系統顯然與您的系統有點不同。當您展望未來 5 年多的時間，當然，您正在美國海灣建立新工廠時，您是否認為自己能夠利用氮的出口機會，而不僅僅是在清潔氨方面，但真的是整體氮嗎？

And thank you for the question. I'll pass that one over to Raef Sully.

謝謝你的問題。我會把那個交給 Raef Sully。

Yes, Ben, the simple answer is yes. And what I'd point to is the fact that we've been exporting more UAN this year than we've done previously. We're also actively looking at opportunities for exporting more ammonia instead of urea and UAN. And so -- and part of the work we're doing in brownfield expansions is to give us more flexibility to export as and when those activities -- as those opportunities occur. So the answer is yes, we're actually doing it now, and we're planning on expanding our capability of exporting in future.

是的，本，簡單的答案是肯定的。我要指出的是，我們今年出口的 UAN 比以前更多。我們還在積極尋找出口更多氨氣而不是尿素和 UAN 的機會。所以——我們在棕地擴張中所做的部分工作是讓我們在這些活動發生時更靈活地出口——當這些機會出現時。所以答案是肯定的，我們實際上正在這樣做，並且我們計劃在未來擴大我們的出口能力。

Your next question comes from Michael Tupholme of TD Securities.

您的下一個問題來自道明證券的 Michael Tuholme。

My question relates to potash demand and the rationing we've seen this year. You narrowed your 2022 global potash shipment guidance, and you're still looking at a meaningful year-over-year decline in global potash demand this year due largely to the global supply constraints. I know you haven't given guidance for 2023, but I'm wondering if you can share any thoughts you might have on what the supply-driven pullback of potash demand this year likely means for potash demand as we look out to next year and then how that might feed into the pricing outlook?

我的問題與我們今年看到的鉀肥需求和配給有關。你們縮小了 2022 年全球鉀肥出貨量指引，但由於全球供應限制，今年全球鉀肥需求仍將出現有意義的同比下降。我知道您還沒有給出 2023 年的指導，但我想知道您是否可以分享您對今年鉀肥需求的供應驅動回落可能對鉀肥需求意味著什麼的想法，因為我們期待明年和那麼這將如何影響定價前景呢？

Well, thank you for the question, Michael. And yes, there's a number of moving parts there. Obviously, some others we just talked about as it relates to challenges in Russia and Belarus, but at the same time, we, ourselves, as you know, are increasing production. So I could say, a number of moving parts. But I will pass it over to Jason Newton just to provide a little more detail on our assumptions.

好吧，謝謝你的問題，邁克爾。是的，那裡有許多活動部件。顯然，我們剛剛談到的其他一些問題與俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的挑戰有關，但與此同時，如您所知，我們自己正在增加產量。所以我可以說，有許多活動部件。但我將把它交給傑森牛頓，只是為了提供更多關於我們假設的細節。

Sure. Michael. I think Ken touched on it a little bit earlier as well, as we look towards 2023, our expectation for Belarusian supplies would be pretty much in line with where the range is this year just given the expectation of continued port restrictions there.

當然。邁克爾。我認為肯也早一點談到了這一點，當我們展望 2023 年時，我們對白俄羅斯供應的預期將與今年的供應範圍幾乎一致，只是因為預計那裡將繼續實施港口限制。

For Russia, also, I think just given that we narrowed our range this year, if we look year-over-year, we expect them to be down 2 million to 4 million tonnes this year. We'd probably widen the range a little bit going into 2023, but in that same sort of range.

對於俄羅斯，我認為鑑於我們今年縮小了範圍，如果我們按年看，我們預計今年它們將減少 200 萬噸至 400 萬噸。到 2023 年，我們可能會稍微擴大範圍，但在同一範圍內。

The one factor to watch for 2023 is that Nutrien will have additional volume to insert into the market. And so there is potentially increased supply available that will -- if you think what the range of shipments would increase that range of shipments next year, probably in the range of 1 million to 2 million tonnes versus this year's levels.

2023 年值得關注的一個因素是 Nutrien 將有額外的數量進入市場。因此，供應量可能會增加——如果你認為明年的出貨量範圍會增加多少，與今年的水平相比，可能在 100 萬噸到 200 萬噸之間。

But we know that because of the demand rationing that's occurring this year, there's likely to be pent-up demand. And so any surprise to the upside from a supply perspective, we think will be absorbed, particularly as we look at agricultural fundamentals and the strength and demand should continue into at least the first half of 2023.

但我們知道，由於今年發生的需求配給，可能會有被壓抑的需求。因此，從供應角度來看，如果出現任何意外上行，我們認為都會被吸收，特別是當我們關注農業基本面時，強勁和需求至少會持續到 2023 年上半年。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back to Jeff Holzman for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想把會議轉回給 Jeff Holzman 做閉幕詞。

Okay. Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available for any follow-up questions. Have a great day.

好的。感謝您今天加入我們。投資者關係團隊可隨時解答任何後續問題。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for this morning. We would like to thank everyone for participating and ask you to please disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，今天上午的電話會議到此結束。我們要感謝大家的參與，並請您斷開線路。