Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2024 fourth quarter earnings Call.

問候，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Holzman, VP of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將電話會議轉給投資人關係副總裁 Jeff Holzman。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝您，接線生。

Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call.

早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information.

在我們進行此電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計畫和前景所作的各種陳述都包含前瞻性資訊。

Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts.

在得出這些結論和預測時應用了某些假設。

Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information.

因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性資訊中的結果有重大差異。

Additional information about these factors and assumptions is contained in our quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and Annual Information Form.

有關這些因素和假設的更多資訊包含在我們向股東提交的季度報告以及我們最近的年度報告、管理層討論與分析 (MD&A) 和年度資訊表中。

I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO; and Mark Thompson, our CFO, for opening comments.

現在我將電話轉給 Nutrien 總裁兼執行長 Ken Seitz；以及我們的財務長馬克湯普森（Mark Thompson）的開場發言。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to review our 2024 results and the outlook for the year ahead.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們，回顧我們的 2024 年業績並展望未來一年。

Nutrien has a world-class asset base and a resilient business model that is built to withstand economic uncertainty, geopolitical shifts and to perform in all sets of market conditions.

Nutrien 擁有世界一流的資產基礎和有彈性的商業模式，能夠抵禦經濟不確定性、地緣政治變化並在各種市場條件下發揮作用。

In a world that is increasingly complex, having a clear vision and strategy is vitally important.

在日益複雜的世界中，擁有清晰的願景和策略至關重要。

For Nutrien, this means strengthening our core business across the ag value chain and taking a disciplined and intentional approach to capital allocation.

對 Nutrien 來說，這意味著加強我們在整個農業價值鏈中的核心業務，並採取規範且有針對性的資本配置方式。

To measure success against the execution of our strategy, we set 2026 performance targets that we believe provide a pathway for driving structural improvements to our earnings and free cash flow.

為了衡量我們策略執行的成功程度，我們設定了 2026 年績效目標，我們相信這為推動我們的獲利和自由現金流的結構性改善提供了途徑。

In 2024, we made meaningful progress toward these targets.

2024年，我們朝著這些目標取得了有意義的進展。

In our upstream businesses we increased fertilizer sales volumes by nearly 1 million tonnes compared to 2023.

在我們的上游業務中，與 2023 年相比，我們的化肥銷售量增加了近 100 萬噸。

We sold record potash volumes and progressed nitrogen brownfield expansions at two of our North American sites.

我們在北美的兩個工廠銷售了創紀錄的鉀肥量，並推進了氮肥棕地擴建。

We mined 35% of our potash ore tonnes using automation, progressing towards our 2026 target of 40% to 50%.

我們透過自動化開採了 35% 的鉀礦，並朝著 2026 年 40% 至 50% 的目標邁進。

These advancements provide efficiency, flexibility and most importantly, safety benefits at our sites.

這些進步為我們的工廠提供了效率、靈活性，最重要的是安全效益。

We enhanced our midstream distribution capabilities, including the opening of a new potash terminal in the US corn well.

我們增強了中游分銷能力，包括在美國玉米井開設新的鉀肥終端。

Investments in our global distribution network will continue to be a priority in the years ahead. to ensure we can efficiently serve our customers and support our growth objectives.

未來幾年，我們對全球分銷網絡的投資仍將是我們的首要任務。以確保我們能夠有效地服務客戶並支持我們的成長目標。

Downstream, we increased retail product margins and lowered expenses through efforts to simplify our business and optimize our network.

在下游，我們透過努力簡化業務和優化網絡，提高了零售產品利潤率並降低了費用。

In Brazil, our improvement plan is beginning to deliver results as we saw green shoots in the region during the fourth quarter.

在巴西，我們的改進計劃開始取得成效，因為我們在第四季度看到該地區出現了復甦跡象。

We remain confident in the growth platforms that support our 2026 retail adjusted EBITDA target of $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion.

我們仍然對支持我們實現 2026 年零售調整後 EBITDA 目標（19 億美元至 21 億美元）的成長平台充滿信心。

We accelerated the time line for achieving $200 million in annual cost savings and expect to achieve this target in 2025, one year earlier than our initial goal.

我們加快了實現每年 2 億美元成本節約的時間表，並預計在 2025 年實現這一目標，比我們最初的目標提前一年。

Lastly, we optimized capital spending in 2024, reducing total expenditures by $450 million compared to 2023.

最後，我們優化了 2024 年的資本支出，與 2023 年相比，總支出減少了 4.5 億美元。

Together, these actions position Nutrien to countercyclically deploy capital towards high conviction opportunities that improve earnings and cash flow per share through the cycle.

總之，這些措施使 Nutrien 能夠逆週期地將資本部署到具有高信心的機會中，從而在整個週期中提高每股盈餘和現金流。

Now turning to a review of our 2024 financial results.

現在來回顧我們的 2024 年財務表現。

Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion in 2024, as lower fertilizer prices more than offset increased downstream retail earnings, higher upstream fertilizer volumes and lower costs.

2024 年，Nutrien 實現調整後 EBITDA 54 億美元，因為化肥價格的下降超過了下游零售收益的增加、上游化肥產量的增加和成本的降低。

Retail adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.7 billion up 16% from the prior year.

零售調整後的 EBITDA 總計 17 億美元，較上年成長 16%。

This result exceeded our most recent full year guidance due to stronger-than-expected crop protection margins in North America, improved Brazilian retail performance and the benefit from cost savings and asset sales in the fourth quarter.

由於北美作物保護利潤率高於預期、巴西零售業績改善以及第四季度成本節約和資產出售的好處，這一業績超過了我們最近的全年預期。

North American crop nutrient margins increased due to a stabilization of fertilizer markets and continued growth of our proprietary crop nutritional and biostimulant product lines.

由於肥料市場的穩定和我們專有的作物營養和生物刺激素產品線的持續增長，北美作物營養利潤率增加。

This more than offset lower North American sales volumes which were impacted by lower corn acres and wet weather during the spring and fall application seasons.

這超過了北美銷量下降的幅度，北美銷量下降是由於玉米種植面積減少以及春秋季節潮濕天氣造成的。

Crop protection margins improved in 2024, supported by proprietary product growth, strong operational execution and the selling through of lower cost inventory.

受專有產品成長、強勁的營運執行和低成本庫存銷售的支持，2024 年作物保護利潤率有所提高。

Higher seed margins in North America more than offset the impact of dry weather and competitive market pressures in Brazil.

北美較高的種子利潤率足以抵銷巴西乾旱天氣和競爭市場壓力的影響。

In potash, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion, down from the prior year due to lower net selling prices. low channel inventories and strong potash affordability supported increased customer demand and higher sales volumes.

在鉀肥業務方面，我們實現的調整後 EBITDA 為 18 億美元，由於淨銷售價格下降而低於上年。低通路庫存和強勁的鉀肥承受能力支撐了客戶需求的增加和銷售量的提高。

We increased production from our low-cost six mine network and progressive mine automation which contributed to a 7% reduction in our potash controllable cash cost per tonne.

我們透過低成本的六大礦山網路和先進的礦山自動化提高了產量，這使每噸鉀肥可控現金成本降低了 7%。

Our nitrogen segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion, relatively flat to the prior year as higher sales volumes and lower natural gas costs offset a reduction in net selling prices.

我們的氮氣部門產生了 19 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，與去年基本持平，因為銷售量的增加和天然氣成本的下降抵消了淨銷售價格的下降。

With the completion of GHG projects in our nitrogen business and changes to our product mix, we achieved a 15% reduction in our total Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions intensity in 2024 compared to the 2018 base year.

隨著我們氮氣業務中溫室氣體專案的完成和產品結構的變化，與 2018 年基準年相比，我們在 2024 年實現了範圍 1 和 2 溫室氣體總排放強度降低 15%。

In phosphate, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $384 million, down from the prior year, primarily due to lower production which was impacted by weather-related events and plant outages in 2024.

在磷酸鹽業務方面，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 3.84 億美元，低於上年，主要原因是 2024 年受天氣相關事件和工廠停產影響導致產量下降。

Now turning to the market outlook for 2025.

現在來談談2025年的市場展望。

Global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low, providing a supportive environment for ag commodities.

全球糧食庫存與使用量比率仍處於歷史低點，為農產品提供了支撐環境。

Demand for US corn has been strong, tightening the projected supply and demand balance and supporting prices.

美國玉米需求強勁，預計供需平衡收緊，並支撐價格。

We expect US corn acreage to increase to a range of 91 million to 93 million acres and anticipate strong demand for crop inputs in the first half of the year.

我們預計美國玉米種植面積將增加至 9,100 萬至 9,300 萬英畝，並預計今年上半年對農作物投入品的需求強勁。

For potash, we increased our 2025 global shipment forecast to a range of 71 million to 75 million tonnes.

鉀肥，我們將2025年全球出貨量預測上調至7,100萬至7,500萬噸。

The high end captures the potential for stronger underlying global consumption and the lower end captures the potential for reduced global supply availability.

高端體現了全球潛在消費增強的潛力，低端體現了全球供應量減少的潛力。

We see potential for further supply tightness with limited global potash capacity additions this year and reported operational challenges and maintenance work in key producing regions.

由於今年全球鉀肥產能新增有限，且主要產區面臨營運維護的挑戰，我們認為供應可能進一步吃緊。

Global nitrogen markets continue to be impacted by regional supply constraints, elevated natural gas prices in Europe and seasonal buying patterns.

全球氮氣市場持續受到區域供應限制、歐洲天然氣價格上漲和季節性購買模式的影響。

The US nitrogen market is currently tight as net import volumes through the first half of the fertilizer year were down 60% compared to the five year average.

目前美國氮肥市場緊張，今年上半年的淨進口量與五年平均值相比下降了 60%。

Nitrogen demand is expected to be strong in the spring due to the limited fall ammonia application season and higher projected corn acreage.

由於秋季氨施用季節有限且預計玉米種植面積增加，預計春季氮需求將會強勁。

I will now turn it over to Mark to provide more details on our 2025 guidance assumptions and our capital allocation plans.

現在，我將把主題交給馬克，讓他提供有關我們 2025 年指導假設和資本配置計劃的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Ken.

謝謝，肯。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

As Ken highlighted, we made meaningful progress towards our 2026 performance targets this past year and see continued opportunities in 2025 to create value through focused execution and disciplined capital allocation.

正如肯所強調的，我們在過去的一年裡朝著 2026 年的績效目標取得了重大進展，並看到了 2025 年繼續透過專注的執行和嚴格的資本配置創造價值的機會。

Our annual potash sales volume guidance of 13.6 million to 14.4 million tonnes is consistent with our global shipments outlook and accounts for some level of uncertainty regarding the potential impact of tariffs on Canadian exports as well as global supply availability.

我們對年度鉀肥銷售量的預期為 1,360 萬至 1,440 萬噸，這與我們對全球出貨量的預期一致，並且在一定程度上反映了關稅對加拿大出口以及全球供應量的潛在影響的不確定性。

In North America, our winter fill program was fully subscribed, and we have since increased reference prices by $45 per short tonne reflect tightening global market fundamentals.

在北美，我們的冬季填充計劃已全部完成，我們已將參考價格提高 45 美元/短噸，以反映全球市場基本面的緊縮。

In nitrogen, we expect continued reliability improvements to support higher operating rates and annual sales volumes of 10.7 million to 11.2 million tonnes.

在氮氣方面，我們預計可靠性將持續提高，以支援更高的營運率和 1,070 萬至 1,120 萬噸的年銷售量。

Our low-cost nitrogen assets remain geographically advantaged compared to major offshore production regions.

與主要海上生產地區相比，我們的低成本氮氣資產在地理上仍具有優勢。

We project Henry Hub natural gas prices will average between $3.25 and $3.50 per MMBtu in 2025, and our Western Canadian nitrogen plants will benefit from gas prices well below these levels.

我們預計，2025 年亨利中心天然氣價格平均將在每百萬英熱單位 3.25 美元至 3.50 美元之間，而我們位於加拿大西部的氮氣工廠將受益於遠低於這一水平的天然氣價格。

Our phosphate sales volume guidance of 2.35 million to 2.55 million tonnes reflects the expectation for lower production at our White Springs facility in the first half of 2025 and improved operating rates in the second half compared to the prior year.

我們對磷酸鹽銷售量的預期為 235 萬噸至 255 萬噸，這反映了我們預計 2025 年上半年 White Springs 工廠的產量將下降，而下半年的開工率將與去年同期相比有所提高。

Our full year retail adjusted EBITDA guidance is $1.65 billion to $1.85 billion, supported by higher anticipated crop nutrient sales volumes, continued growth of our proprietary products and further margin recovery in Brazil.

我們全年零售調整後 EBITDA 預期為 16.5 億美元至 18.5 億美元，這得益於預期作物營養素銷售量增加、專有產品持續增長以及巴西利潤率進一步回升。

As Ken mentioned, our improvement plan in Brazil is beginning to show encouraging results, and we remain focused on initiatives that improve cash flow from the business.

正如肯所提到的，我們在巴西的改進計畫開始顯示出令人鼓舞的成果，我們仍然專注於改善業務現金流的措施。

We expect the benefits of these organic growth initiatives in retail will be partially offset by foreign exchange headwinds of approximately $25 million and the absence of asset sales and other income items realized in 2024 that totaled approximately $50 million.

我們預計，這些零售業有機成長舉措帶來的好處將被約 2,500 萬美元的外匯逆風以及 2024 年實現的資產出售和其他收入項目的缺失（總計約 5,000 萬美元）部分抵銷。

Looking ahead from a sources of cash perspective, we are delivering downstream retail earnings growth, increasing upstream fertilizer volumes and driving operational efficiencies and cost savings across our network.

從現金來源的角度來看，我們正在實現下游零售獲利成長、增加上游化肥產量並提高整個網路的營運效率和成本節約。

We continue to explore ways to simplify and focus our portfolio.

我們將繼續探索簡化和集中投資組合的方法。

This includes optimizing investments in working capital and reviewing assets on our balance sheet that may not warrant maintaining.

這包括優化營運資本投資和審查資產負債表上可能不需要維護的資產。

From a use of cash perspective, we expect to further optimize capital expenditures to a range of $2 billion to $2.1 billion in 2025.

從現金使用角度來看，我們預計到 2025 年資本支出將進一步優化至 20 億至 21 億美元之間。

We've committed capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and to progress a set of targeted growth investments that have a strong fit with our strategy, provide returns in excess of our hurdle rates and have a relatively low degree of execution risk.

我們已投入資金來維持安全可靠的運營，並推進一系列與我們的策略高度契合、提供超過我們的最低收益率的回報且執行風險相對較低的有針對性的成長投資。

Our focus is on investments in our proprietary products business, retail network optimization, nitrogen debottleneck projects and mine automation in potash.

我們專注於專有產品業務、零售網路優化、氮氣瓶頸專案和鉀肥礦山自動化。

We continue to target a stable and growing dividend.

我們將繼續致力於實現穩定且不斷成長的股息。

With the increase approved by our Board of Directors yesterday, Nutrien's dividend per share has now been increased 7 times since the beginning of 2018, for a total increase of 36%.

隨著董事會昨天批准的增加，Nutrien 的每股股息自 2018 年初以來已增加 7 次，共增加 36%。

Our annualized dividend payment has remained stable at approximately $1 billion due to the significant reduction in share count over this time period.

由於在此期間股份數量大幅減少，我們的年度股息支付保持穩定在約 10 億美元。

Additional free cash flow in 2025 will be allocated to a narrow set of incremental growth investments, including retail tuck-in acquisitions and to share repurchases.

2025 年的額外自由現金流將分配給一小部分增量成長投資，包括零售附加收購和股票回購。

We'll maintain a disciplined approach to cash deployment that maximizes our risk-adjusted returns and supports growth in free cash flow per share.

我們將保持嚴謹的現金部署方式，以最大化我們的風險調整回報並支持每股自由現金流的成長。

Since the second half of 2024, we have deployed approximately $290 million towards share repurchases, retiring 5.8 million shares.

自 2024 年下半年以來，我們已投入約 2.9 億美元用於股票回購，回購了 580 萬股。

We intend on continuing to repurchase shares on a more ratable basis under our renewed NCIB program that is authorized until the end of February 2026.

我們打算根據授權至2026年2月底的更新的NCIB計劃繼續以更可評估的方式回購股票。

I'll now turn it back to Ken for closing remarks.

現在我將話題轉回給肯，請他作最後發言。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

The outlook for our business in 2025 is supported by expectations for strong crop input demand and firming potash fundamentals.

強勁的農作物投入需求和穩固的鉀肥基本面預期支撐了我們 2025 年的業務前景。

We continue to monitor geopolitical events and are positioned to respond under any scenario.

我們持續關注地緣政治事件，並做好在任何情況下做出反應的準備。

Nutrien has a world-class asset base, and we remain focused on strategic priorities that strengthen the advantages of our business across the ag value chain.

Nutrien 擁有世界一流的資產基礎，我們將繼續專注於策略重點，加強我們在整個農業價值鏈中的業務優勢。

We would now be happy to take your questions.

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank.

來自豐業銀行的 Ben Isaacson。

A question on tariffs.

關於關稅的問題。

Can you talk through how you think about tariff risk for nitrogen, potash and retail, both for Nutrien and for the industry.

您能否談談您如何看待 Nutrien 和整個產業的氮、鉀和零售關稅風險？

What are the factors that we should be considering when it comes to tariff risk?

當談到關稅風險時，我們應該考慮哪些因素？

Yeah, Thanks, Ben.

是的，謝謝，本。

Among those, and we looked at the impact on tariffs across everything that you've said, including some capital items that we look at across the border.

其中，我們研究了您所說的所有內容對關稅的影響，包括我們跨境研究的一些資本項目。

And by far, the biggest discussion is about potash.

到目前為止，討論最大的議題是鉀肥。

And of course, agricultural trade and agricultural productivity in the US requires -- and food security for that matter requires the free flow of these commodities across the border.

當然，美國的農業貿易和農業生產力需要──而糧食安全也需要這些商品的跨國自由流動。

We've had these dialogues, a lot of them with governments on both sides of the border, and we continue just to emphasize how reliant the US farmer is on something like Canadian potash, for example, where Canadian supply over 80% of that market.

我們已經進行了這些對話，其中許多對話是與邊境兩邊的政府進行的，我們繼續強調美國農民對加拿大鉀肥等產品的依賴程度，例如，加拿大供應了美國 80% 以上的鉀肥。

We struck up a cross-functional team which extends across our government relations group, our commercial organization to make sure we can serve our US customers in the way that we always have.

我們成立了一個跨職能團隊，其範圍涵蓋我們的政府關係小組和商業組織，以確保我們能夠像往常一樣為美國客戶提供服務。

And of course, in our finance group as we look at the mechanisms that might be in place to actually collect tariffs and how we would go about that.

當然，我們的財務小組正在研究可能採取的實際徵收關稅的機制以及我們將如何進行。

Today, we're confident as Nutrien that for us, we have those mechanisms in place.

今天，我們 Nutrien 確信，我們已經建立了這些機制。

And frankly, that the cost of this would be would be borne by the US farmer the tariff cost and tariff impact will be passed on to the US farmer.

坦白說，這筆成本將由美國農民承擔，關稅成本和關稅影響將轉嫁給美國農民。

I will say that timing of this is all in question, of course, as we look at the 30 days and look at the April 1 review, so that it could be or maybe even likely is the case that we'll feel the US farmer will feel those impacts after the spring planting season here.

當然，我想說的是，這一切的時間都是有疑問的，因為我們看一下這 30 天，並看看 4 月 1 日的審查，所以有可能，甚至有可能，我們會覺得美國農民會在春季種植季節後感受到這些影響。

For our part, we have been filling the channel right through to our downstream network.

就我們而言，我們一直在填充直達下游網路​​的管道。

And so that we're in a position to serve our US customers in the way that we always have.

這樣我們就能像往常一樣為美國客戶提供服務。

But like I say, we're of the view that tariffs are in place is going to be -- it's going to be a rising cost for the US grower.

但就像我說的，我們認為徵收關稅將會導緻美國種植者的成本上升。

Steve Hansen from Raymond James.

雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的史蒂夫漢森 (Steve Hansen)。

Your comments on improving Brazil results are quite encouraging.

您關於改善巴西隊成績的評論非常令人鼓舞。

I was just hoping you could drill down a little further and perhaps add some commentary around where you're at on any specific actions you're taking specifically and then any broader macro variables that you also see influencing the pace of the recovery.

我只是希望您能夠深入探討一下，並就您所採取的具體行動以及您認為會影響復甦速度的更廣泛的宏觀變數添加一些評論。

Yeah, for sure.

是的，當然。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

We've talked about what we've done on the cost side of the equation and head count reduction and focusing on our most productive salespeople.

我們已經討論了在成本方面和裁員方面所做的工作，並專注於我們最有效率的銷售人員。

We've talked about the idling of our five lenders in Brazil.

我們已經討論了巴西五家貸款機構的閒置問題。

We've talked about the closure of unproductive locations and that's some of our actual retail distribution centers, but also our experience centers.

我們已經討論過關閉一些生產效率低下的地點，其中包括我們的一些實際的零售配送中心，也包括我們的體驗中心。

We've shuttered over 50 of those.

我們已經關閉了其中 50 多家。

And we've talked about doubling down on proprietary products and that being certainly a great business for us and a growing business in Brazil.

我們已經討論過加倍投入專有產品，這對我們和巴西而言無疑是一項偉大的業務，也是一項正在成長的業務。

We put those all together and we find ourselves in a situation, yes, exactly as we described, we see green shoots in Brazil, it's not necessarily true that the market is moving along the way that I think the industry is hoping and high interest rates are still a source of challenge for the Brazilian agricultural complex.

把所有這些綜合起來，我們就會發現自己處境艱難，正如我們所描述的那樣，我們看到了巴西的復甦跡象，但我認為市場並不一定按照業界希望的方向發展，高利率仍然是巴西農業綜合體面臨的挑戰。

But our actions, I would say, are we're seeing those green shoots now, and you see that reflected in our results.

但我想說，我們的行動讓我們看到了復甦的曙光，這也反映在我們的業績上。

Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets.

來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Andrew Wong。

I just wanted to ask about potash.

我只是想問一下鉀肥的問題。

So we've seen prices strengthening recently.

因此我們看到最近價格有所走強。

Just curious if you can just talk about some of the main factors that are behind that?

我只是好奇，您是否可以談談這背後的一些主要因素？

How much of that is tariff driven with some -- maybe some purchases ahead of that potential outcome?

其中有多少是由關稅推動的——也許是在出現潛在結果之前進行的一些購買？

And then how much of that comes from some of the supply issues that maybe came up earlier this year and how sustainable would you say current prices are into like the back half of this year?

那麼其中有多少是由於今年早些時候出現的一些供應問題造成的，您認為目前的價格能持續到今年下半年嗎？

Yeah, Thanks, Andrew.

是的，謝謝，安德魯。

I would say we don't see much of an impact, if any, from -- as it relates to tariffs.

我想說，我們看不到與關稅有關的太大影響（如果有的話）。

And I think it's just so much uncertainty there that in terms of how that plays out, it really is a story about the fundamentals, but I'll pass over to Chris Reynolds to talk about that.

我認為，其中存在太多的不確定性，至於事情將如何發展，這實際上是一個關於基本面的故事，但我將把話題交給克里斯雷諾茲來談論這個問題。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Ken.

謝謝，肯。

Andrew, as Ken said, we look at 2024 and the strong shipments we saw reaching an all-time record globally, what's constructive for us is that despite that strong shipment period through 2024, we came out of 2024 as we canvassed the markets and met with our customers that there was really no material carryover inventories in any of these major markets.

安德魯，正如肯所說，我們展望 2024 年，看到強勁的出貨量在全球範圍內創下歷史新高，對我們來說有建設性的是，儘管 2024 年的出貨量強勁，但我們在 2024 年調查市場並與客戶會面時發現，在這些主要市場中，實際上沒有實質性的結轉庫存。

And I think that's represented a strong disappearance that we saw.

我認為這代表了我們所看到的強烈消失。

And so that's why we've seen increasing prices here as we exited '24 and come into 2025.

這就是為什麼當我們走出 24 年、進入 2025 年時，我們看到價格上漲。

And you go around the world a little bit here, you think about North America.

如果你環遊世界一會兒，想想北美。

We came up with a winter fill program here domestically to open the year, had a very good response to that and so much so that we implemented two price increases since that winter fill program, which has been absorbed into the market and validated with new orders because the affordability remains good for potash and obviously, with the backdrop of some very strong corn price and prospective corn acres.

我們在國內推出了一項冬季填充計劃來迎接新年，該計劃得到了非常好的反響，因此我們在冬季填充計劃實施後實施了兩次價格上調，該計劃已被市場吸收並通過新訂單得到驗證，因為鉀肥的可負擔性仍然良好，顯然，在玉米價格非常強勁和玉米種植面積預期增加的背景下。

Also in Brazil, again, a record year for imports into Brazil in 2024, but then along with that, still very healthy spot demand, which has seen prices continue to increase here through the start of 2025.

巴西也一樣，2024 年進口量將再創紀錄，但同時，現貨需求仍然非常旺盛，這將推動巴西價格在 2025 年初繼續上漲。

And then around the Asian markets, India, China and Southeast Asia, again, characterized by no material or burdensome inventories but some really good demand, particularly in Southeast Asia.

然後環顧亞洲市場，印度、中國和東南亞，同樣沒有材料或繁重的庫存，但需求確實很好，特別是在東南亞。

And again, with that backdrop of some strong palm oil prices.

在此背景下，棕櫚油價格再次走強。

So Andrew, I think we're feeling good to start the calendar year with the tailwinds we're seeing and are very constructive on the potash market.

因此，安德魯，我認為我們對新的一年感到很滿意，因為我們看到了順風，並且對鉀肥市場非常有信心。

Joel Jackson from BMO.

來自 BMO 的喬爾傑克遜。

A couple of things.

有幾件事。

Your Henry Hub gas forecast between $3.25 and $3.50. -- obviously, as you're getting ready to give new forecast, we've seen gas prices surge.

您對亨利中心 (Henry Hub) 天然氣價格的預測在 3.25 美元至 3.50 美元之間。 ——顯然，當您準備給出新的預測時，我們已經看到汽油價格飆升。

I mean, Henry Hub is averaging above $4 now for the year, about $4 for the year.

我的意思是，亨利中心現在的年平均油價超過 4 美元，大約是 4 美元。

Just talk about that, how that may impact your thinking and your earnings and your outlook.

只需談論這一點，這可能會如何影響您的想法、收入和前景。

And then also, it looks like ammonia is really underperforming other parts of the nitrogen complex.

而且看起來氨的表現確實不如氮複合物的其他部分。

Can you talk about that?

你能談談這個嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So with respect to Henry Hub pricing, I'll pass it over to Trevor Williams just to talk about our view there.

因此，關於亨利中心定價，我將把它交給特雷弗威廉斯 (Trevor Williams)，讓他談談我們的看法。

It continues to be the case that the delta between what we're seeing in European gas prices in North America is pretty dramatic.

我們看到的歐洲天然氣價格與北美天然氣價格之間的差距仍然相當大。

If you're at $16 today in Europe, that's a $600 essentially floor on what it costs to produce a tonne of ammonia.

如果目前歐洲的價格是 16 美元，生產一噸氨的成本底線基本上是 600 美元。

So the delta is important.

因此增量很重要。

But to your question about Henry Hub pricing, I'll pass that over to Trevor Williams.

但對於您關於亨利中心定價的問題，我會將其轉交給特雷弗威廉斯 (Trevor Williams)。

And then the ammonia question, I'll pass it over to Chris Reynolds.

然後有關氨的問題，我將把它交給克里斯·雷諾茲。

Joel, thanks for the question.

喬爾，謝謝你的提問。

And really, what we're seeing is North American prices obviously have been stronger, really as a result of some of the extreme weather that we've really seen over the course of the last number of months.

事實上，我們看到的是北美的價格明顯上漲，這實際上是過去幾個月極端天氣的結果。

And obviously, as a result, higher demand and some supply constraints on the downstream side or on the upstream side.

顯然，其結果是，需求增加，而下游或上游的供應受到一些限制。

Ultimately, though, the forecast for the end of winter is looking a little bit more mild as we get through this kind of the last little spell over the course of the next couple of weeks.

不過，最終，隨著我們在接下來的幾週內度過這最後的短暫時期，冬季結束的預測看起來將更加溫和。

And then we expect based on where we sit with storage, both storage as well as the production, we see those prices normalizing into the last part of the year.

然後我們預計，根據我們的儲存狀況（包括儲存和生產），這些價格將在今年下半年恢復正常。

Yeah, No, just to comment on the ammonia market as we've seen it.

是的，不，只是對我們所看到的氨市場進行評論。

And Joel, you're right, we did enter 2025 on a little bit of a declining trend in ammonia prices.

喬爾，你說得對，到 2025 年，氨價格確實出現了小幅下降的趨勢。

Part of that was some weak application we saw in the fall season last year, impacted by weather and also the prospect of some new supply coming on to the market.

部分原因是去年秋季我們看到一些申請疲軟，受到天氣影響，同時也受到一些新供應進入市場的前景的影響。

But we're constructive on nitrogen overall.

但整體而言，我們對氮持建設性態度。

Some of that ammonia that didn't go down last fall is going to go down in the form of urea and UAN, particularly in North America.

去年秋季未下降的部分氨將以尿素和 UAN 的形式下降，尤其是在北美。

And so -- but we think that market is very tight and short right now, and we're seeing that in the price behavior of urea and UAN.

所以 — — 但我們認為目前市場非常緊張且短缺，我們從尿素和 UAN 的價格走勢中看到了這一點。

So again, optimistic as we enter the spring season on nitrogen application rates, particularly with the prospect of over 90 million acres of corn.

因此，隨著春季的到來，我們對氮肥施用量再次持樂觀態度，尤其是考慮到玉米種植面積將超過 9,000 萬英畝。

Yeah, And I might just add that we closed the year with quite strong ammonia pricing actually.

是的，我還要補充一點，事實上，我們今年底的氨價格相當強勁。

And so yes, while it's softened a bit, we still look at the ammonia price and are constructive and call that a strong price.

因此，是的，雖然價格有所回落，但我們仍然關注氨價格，並且持建設性態度，稱之為強勁價格。

Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Wondering if you could just talk a little bit about the potash market.

想知道您是否可以簡單談談鉀肥市場。

A couple of years since the war in Ukraine, I think we've talked about the export costs for both Russia and Belarus, and increased materially and then having a favorable impact on delivered costs around the world.

烏克蘭戰爭爆發幾年後，我想我們已經討論了俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的出口成本，而且這些成本大幅增加，並對全球交付成本產生了有利影響。

If we do envision and get to a point where that war is ended and Russia has more access to financial markets and maybe freight is more willing to transact with it, and there have been some headlines already about maybe Belarus has the sanctions taken away from it and maybe they get back to the Lithuanian ports.

如果我們確實設想並到達戰爭結束的地步，俄羅斯可以更多地進入金融市場，也許貨運更願意與其進行交易，而且已經有一些頭條新聞報道稱，也許白俄羅斯的製裁會被取消，也許它們可以回到立陶宛港口。

Is it the case that we would see some decline in the cost curve and that would have an impact?

我們是否會看到成本曲線有所下降並產生影響？

Or would your view be that capacity utilization now is tight enough that that's what's determining the price rather than the underlying delivered cost?

或者您認為現在產能利用率已經足夠緊張，以至於產能利用率而不是基礎交付成本決定了價格？

Yeah, Thanks, Vincent.

是的，謝謝，文森。

And of course, it's been the case that potash prices have been below that last marginal cost tonne.

當然，事實是鉀肥價格一直低於每噸邊際成本。

And so we're just now seeing prices get to a level where you look at the right of the cost curve and see demand meeting supply at that right side of the cost curve.

因此，我們現在看到價格達到這樣一個水平，即在成本曲線的右側，需求與成本曲線右側的供應相吻合。

As it relates to your question about FSU production, of course, for the Russians, those volumes were never sanctioned and we've seen all of that production back in the market for some time.

至於你關於 FSU 生產的問題，當然，對於俄羅斯人來說，這些數量從未受到批准，而且我們已經看到所有這些產量都回到了市場上一段時間。

It's a good question, Vincent, about Belarus and how that plays out in terms of lifting of sanctions, which I think is a big if.

文森特，這個問題問得很好，關於白俄羅斯以及它在解除制裁方面將如何發揮作用，我認為這是一個很大的如果。

I mean these are challenges that existed prior to the conflict in Eastern Europe lifted.

我的意思是這些挑戰在東歐衝突解除之前就已經存在了。

I think you said at -- the pivotal question is, does -- do the Belarusians get access through Port of Klaipeda in Lithuania again.

我想你說過——關鍵問題是，白俄羅斯人是否可以再次通過立陶宛的克萊佩達港進入。

I mean that port is now fully utilized with other commodities.

我的意思是該港口現在已經充分利用了其他貨物。

And so are the Belarusians able to wedge their way back into that port when Europe and the Lithuanians have been very clear about sanctions or no sanctions.

當歐洲和立陶宛對是否實施制裁問題已經明確表態後，白俄羅斯是否能夠重新進入該港口。

That's not going to be made available.

此項服務將無法提供。

And so the Belarusians who have been been the marginal producer on a delivered basis would continue to face increased costs as they'd have to head north into Russia and likely the Port of Murmansk.

因此，以交付方式計算，白俄羅斯一直是邊際生產者，他們將繼續面臨成本增加，因為他們必須向北前往俄羅斯，很可能是摩爾曼斯克港。

So it's just to say that if we saw those Belarusians, the ones that continue to be shut and maybe a million times come back into the market, we think that happens slowly over time.

所以，如果我們看到那些白俄羅斯人，那些繼續被關閉的人，也許有一百萬次回到市場，我們認為這會隨著時間的推移慢慢發生。

We think that it continues to be more expensive for the Belarusians and that for your question.

我們認為，對於白俄羅斯人來說，這仍然更加昂貴，這就是您所提出的問題。

I think, your point, Vincent, is very relevant.

我認為，文森特，你的觀點非常中肯。

We look at the fundamentals today and we say with demand having returning to trend levels, and we've been talking about that for some time.

我們今天看一下基本面，我們認為需求已經恢復到趨勢水平，而且我們已經討論了一段時間了。

And that's going to continue to be the case this year, we believe.

我們相信，今年這種情況還會持續下去。

And then looking at the supply side of the equation, assuming some balance in there yet now with some announced maintenance programs and a key producing part of the world and some operational challenges in another part of the world, that's where we go to firming of the potash price.

然後看一下等式的供應方，假設其中存在一定的平衡，但現在有一些已宣布的維護計劃和世界一個主要生產地區以及世界另一地區的一些運營挑戰，這就是我們走向鉀肥價格堅挺的地方。

Kristen Owen of Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的克里斯汀歐文。

I wanted to return to the retail outlook and the strong performance in the past year. certainly getting a lot of uplift from the improved PTC and seed environment.

我想回顧一下零售業的前景和過去一年的強勁表現。無疑從改善的 PTC 和種子環境中獲得了很大的提升。

I'm wondering if you could double-click on those areas of the business and help us understand what your outlook assumes for 2025?

我想知道您是否可以詳細闡述這些業務領域，並幫助我們了解您對 2025 年的展望？

Yeah.

是的。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

We've made some assumptions within our guidance range of 1.6 to -- $1.65 billion to $1.85 billion, and it really speaks to exactly some of those points.

我們對 16 億美元至 16.5 億美元至 18.5 億美元的指導範圍內做出了一些假設，它確實準確地反映了其中的一些觀點。

I'll pass it over to Mark to talk about that range and our assumptions.

我將把它交給馬克來討論這個範圍和我們的假設。

Thanks, Ken.

謝謝，肯。

So yes, when we look at the bridge from 2024 to 2025, as Ken said, our midpoint of 2025 EBITDA guidance for retail is $1.75 billion.

所以是的，當我們展望 2024 年到 2025 年時，正如肯所說，我們對 2025 年零售業 EBITDA 預期的中位數為 17.5 億美元。

On a headline basis, this is up about $50 million versus 2024.

從總體來看，這一數字比 2024 年增加了約 5,000 萬美元。

But when we look at FX headwinds in the retail business from a stronger US dollar, and the realization of some noncore asset sales and nonrecurring other income items we experienced in 2024, we would say our underlying EBITDA is projected to grow by about $125 million, that midpoint of $1.75 billion.

但是，當我們從美元走強的角度來看零售業務的外匯逆風，以及我們在 2024 年經歷的一些非核心資產出售和非經常性其他收入項目的實現時，我們會說我們的基礎 EBITDA 預計將增長約 1.25 億美元，中點為 17.5 億美元。

At that midpoint, coming to your question, we assume continued growth in our proprietary products business.

在那個中間點，回到您的問題，我們假設我們的專有產品業務將繼續成長。

We assume margins at roughly historical average levels.

我們假設利潤率大致處於歷史平均。

If we look to the upside of that range, we would be looking at factors like stronger corn acreage potentially and ag fundamentals strengthening or continuing to strengthen and crop protection margin performance above historical average levels.

如果我們展望該範圍的上行，我們將關注以下因素：玉米種植面積可能增加、農業基本面加強或持續加強，以及作物保護利潤率表現高於歷史平均水平。

On the downside of that range, we would be looking to factors like adverse weather during key application periods, weaker commodity pricing and a slower pace of recovery in Brazil.

在該範圍的下行方面，我們將關注諸如關鍵申請期間的惡劣天氣、大宗商品價格走弱以及巴西復甦速度放緩等因素。

So from a bookend standpoint and at the midpoint, those are the factors that are the primary ones guiding our outlook for 2025 in retail.

因此，從書末和中間的角度來看，這些是指導我們展望 2025 年零售業的主要因素。

Steve Byrne from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美銀美林的史蒂夫伯恩。

Yeah, I'd like to follow that question with maybe a little bit of a longer-term outlook on your retail business.

是的，我想繼續回答這個問題，從更長遠的角度展望一下你們的零售業務。

I got four potential growth drivers that come to mind and I was hoping you could just rank them.

我想到四個潛在的成長動力，希望您能對它們進行排名。

One would be just increased network density with bolt-ons.

一種方法是透過附加措施來增加網路密度。

Another one would be you seem to be getting into more and more biologicals.

另一個原因是你似乎對生物製劑的興趣越來越濃厚。

Is that a meaningful longer-term growth driver for you?

這對您來說是一個有意義的長期成長動力嗎？

The third one would be SG&A in this segment is 90% of the company SG&A., is this -- do you see ways to reduce the headcount in that in that segment?

第三個是該部門的銷售、一般和行政費用占公司銷售、一般和行政費用的 90%。

And then just last one, I understand you have access to aerial imagery for this coming year in some of the Corn Belt.

最後一個問題，我知道您可以看到今年玉米帶部分地區的空拍圖像。

Is this a longer-term driver for you to help your customers and increase applications as necessary?

這是您幫助客戶並在必要時增加應用程式的長期動力嗎？

Yeah, Thanks for the question, Steve.

是的，謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。

And I think you pretty much rank ordered them.

我認為您對它們進行了大致的排序。

So we can certainly talk about all of those.

所以我們當然可以談論所有這些。

Absolutely, tuck-ins has been a feature of our business and growth enabler for us and we have a long history and track record of doing that quite successfully.

當然，tuck-ins 一直是我們業務的特色，也是我們成長的推動力，我們在這方面有著悠久的歷史和相當成功的記錄。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Biologicals and biostimulants, crop nutritionals and proprietary overall is a big growth driver.

生物製劑和生物刺激素、作物營養素和專有產品總體來說是一個巨大的成長動力。

Network optimization.

網路優化。

We've talked a lot about that, which is to your SG&A question.

我們已經就此進行了很多討論，這是關於您的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 問題。

But I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi, maybe to expand on each of those.

但我會把它交給 Jeff Tarsi，也許他會對每一個進行擴展。

Steve, and as we -- I'll kind of start with biologicals.

史蒂夫，我們——我將從生物製劑開始。

We talked a lot about our nutritional and biostimulant business, and actually, last year was our second best year on our proprietary products business in history, only comparable with '22.

我們談論了很多關於我們的營養和生物刺激素業務，實際上，去年是我們歷史上專有產品業務表現第二好的一年，僅與22年相當。

Our nutrient biostimulant business grew 8% year-over-year, and we're projecting just under 15% growth in 2025.

我們的營養生物刺激素業務年增 8%，預計 2025 年的成長率將略低於 15%。

So that will be a real headline for us in 2025.

所以這將成為我們 2025 年的真正頭條新聞。

We're going to bring some new products into the market.

我們將向市場推出一些新產品。

We've talked about products like Infinity from that standpoint.

我們從這個角度討論了像 Infinity 這樣的產品。

On the SG&A side of it, we've been quite vocal that for 2025, we want to take $100 million of expense out of our retail business.

在銷售、一般和行政費用方面，我們一直明確表示，到 2025 年，我們希望從零售業務中削減 1 億美元的開支。

We saw in the fourth quarter, we saw some of that come a little bit earlier than we anticipated from that standpoint.

我們在第四季度看到，從這個角度來看，其中一些情況比我們預期的要早一些。

So we feel good about what we've talked about as far as rationalization of the network and controlling our controllers, which is at the top of our list of priorities for 2025.

因此，我們對網路合理化和控制器控制的討論感到滿意，這是我們 2025 年優先事項的首要任務。

And then as you talk about aerial imagery, and we've been using that for some time.

然後正如您所談論的航空圖像，我們已經使用它有一段時間了。

Obviously, we're using a lot of technology to date in our business.

顯然，迄今為止，我們在業務中使用了許多技術。

Our growers are using a lot of technology as well.

我們的種植者也使用了許多技術。

And always say our challenge is try to stay one step ahead of our growers from that standpoint, but we'll be inflowing what we know from a pure agronomy basis and coupling that with the technology in place today to build the best solutions that we can build for our growers to give them the best chance of return.

我們總是說，我們的挑戰是從這個角度嘗試領先於我們的種植者一步，但我們將注入我們從純農學基礎中了解到的知識，並將其與現有的技術結合起來，為我們的種植者構建最佳解決方案，讓他們獲得最佳的回報機會。

Richard Garchitorena of Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的理查德‧加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

Great.

偉大的。

Good quarter.

好季度。

My question is on the nitrogen segment.

我的問題是關於氮氣的部分。

Had strong results, saw improvement in the natural gas reliability North America improved Trinidad operations.

取得了強勁的業績，看到了北美天然氣可靠性的提高，改善了特立尼達的業務。

So maybe just give us an update in terms of where you think that segment is going into 2026 in terms of you're ramping up to that -- those 11.5 million to 12 million tonne target that depended, I think, on improved reliability of the infrastructure.

因此，能否請您向我們介紹一下您認為 2026 年該領域發展情況，以及您如何實現這一目標——1,150 萬至 1,200 萬噸的目標，我認為這取決於基礎設施可靠性的提高。

Thanks, Richard.

謝謝，理查。

And yes, it is true that we have been making investments in reliability initiatives across the network.

是的，我們確實一直在對整個網路的可靠性計劃進行投資。

We've been unlocking new volumes with attractive brownfield investments that we could talk about some of those that are even coming online this year, and we've improved gas utilization in Trinidad.

我們一直在透過具有吸引力的棕地投資來釋放新的產能，其中一些甚至在今年上線，而且我們已經提高了特立尼達的天然氣利用率。

That's all true.

這都是真的。

And that gives us confidence to be on this path when we talk about our Investor Day target of 11.5 million tons in 2026 and even 12 million tonnes if we were to get our full allocation of gas in Trinidad.

當我們談到投資者日的目標時，我們說到 2026 年我們的天然氣產量要達到 1150 萬噸，如果特立尼達的天然氣供應充足，我們的天然氣產量甚至要達到 1200 萬噸，這給了我們信心。

But maybe I'll pass over to Trevor Williams to talk about that bridge end of last year to this year and then our 2026 target.

但也許我會讓特雷弗威廉斯 (Trevor Williams) 來談談去年年底到今年的橋樑以及我們的 2026 年目標。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

Thanks, Richard.

謝謝，理查。

And I'll just build maybe on a few comments that Ken had made.

我只是想基於肯所作的一些評論來補充。

So as we look to our 2026 glide path, and it really continues to reflect -- or focus in really three key areas.

因此，當我們展望 2026 年的滑行路徑時，它實際上會繼續反映或集中在三個關鍵領域。

First one, obviously, being improved reliability.

首先，顯然是提高可靠性。

And just to call out a recent example is really if you look at our Borger facility, we're really seeing a step change in terms of its performance, 2023 over 2024.

舉一個最近的例子，如果你看看我們的 Borger 工廠，我們確實看到它的性能發生了顯著變化，2023 年比 2024 年有了很大變化。

And over the last 12 months, in particular, based on the team that -- the work that the team has done to the site, along with our central reliability team.

特別是在過去的 12 個月中，基於團隊以及我們的中央可靠性團隊對站點所做的工作。

Second, on top of that is really, as Ken mentioned, is really completion of a number of debottlenecks that we have across our fleet.

其次，正如肯所提到的那樣，最重要的是，我們確實已經解決了整個船隊的許多瓶頸問題。

We completed a number last year, both in terms of at our Carseland facility, our Redwater facility in particular and also at Geismar.

去年，我們完成了許多項目，包括 Carseland 工廠、Redwater 工廠以及 Geismar 工廠。

And then we also have coming up in 2026, a few other ones that will come online, both at our Carseland facility and some increased capacity at Augusta as well.

然後，我們還將在 2026 年推出其他一些項目，這些項目將在我們的 Carseland 工廠和奧古斯塔的產能增加後上線。

And then finally, as Ken mentioned, it really comes down to some of the work that we've been doing at Trinidad where we've seen also a really great improvement in terms of gas utilization, making sure that every molecule of gas that's made available to the downstreamers ourselves is that we take advantage of that.

最後，正如肯所提到的，這實際上歸結於我們在特立尼達所做的一些工作，我們在天然氣利用方面也看到了很大的進步，確保我們自己向下游企業提供的每一種氣體分子都能得到利用。

And again, if you look at 2023 over 2024, we saw about a 10% increase.

再說一次，如果您將 2023 年與 2024 年進行比較，我們會發現成長率約為 10%。

We run at about 95% gas utilization in 2024.

到 2024 年，我們的天然氣利用率將達到約 95%。

And we see an opportunity to bring that up to about 98% in 2020, over 2025 and 2026.

我們認為有機會在 2020 年、2025 年和 2026 年將這一比例提高到 98% 左右。

And then lastly, as Ken said, with the work that the Trinidad government has been doing, we continue to be optimistic that we'll hopefully start to see.

最後，正如肯所說，透過特立尼達政府所做的工作，我們繼續保持樂觀，希望能夠開始看到成果。

Jeffrey Zekauskas of JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeffrey Zekauskas。

I was looking at your fact books and the number of selling locations for retail, if I read the data correctly, has been going down by about 4% a year for the last few years.

我看了你們的資料，如果我沒有看錯的話，零售店的數量在過去幾年裡每年下降約 4%。

Can you comment on that?

您能對此發表評論嗎？

Why is the number of selling locations going down?

銷售點數量為何減少？

Is it that farmers have more access to different online sources?

農民是否能夠更多地接觸不同的線上資源？

And what's your idea about what the growth rate of your selling locations should be over time?

您認為隨著時間的推移，您的銷售點的成長率應該是多少？

And then secondly, can you just comment on how you see the crop chemical market in the United States for 2025.

其次，您能否評論一下您如何看待 2025 年美國農作物化學品市場？

Do you think you'll make more than you did last year or less?

您認為今年的收入會比去年多還是少？

Or how do things look?

或者情況看起來怎麼樣？

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

With respect to selling locations, we think less about total quantum of selling locations more about the productivity of each of those locations.

對於銷售地點，我們較少考慮銷售地點的總量，而更多考慮每個地點的生產力。

And the reality is that agriculture is changing.

而現實情況是農業正在改變。

We've seen a lot of unformed consolidation and that the complexion of North American agriculture requires modern and higher throughput facilities.

我們看到了許多未成形的整合，北美農業的狀況需要現代化、更高吞吐量的設施。

And so a key pillar of our growth platform in our retail network, our downstream network is what we call our network optimization, that is looking at what might be higher sustaining CapEx, lower productivity storefronts and consolidating what might be three or four of them in a region into one new modern throughput safer facility that can still provide all those service levels to the grower.

因此，我們零售網絡中成長平台的一個關鍵支柱，即我們的下游網絡，就是我們所謂的網絡優化，即尋找可能維持資本支出較高、生產率較低的店面，並將某個地區可能有三四個這樣的店面整合成一個新的、現代化、吞吐量更高的、更安全的設施，同時仍能為種植者提供所有這些服務水平。

That would be the reason for the change.

這就是改變的原因。

And in fact, that's an improvement to our business.

事實上，這對我們的業務來說是一種進步。

It's not that fewer selling locations means fewer service levels or less organic growth.

這並不意味著銷售地點的減少意味著服務水準的下降或有機成長的減少。

It's actually the opposite of that.

事實恰恰相反。

So that is what you would see happening there.

這就是你所看到的在那裡發生的事情。

And indeed, a key component of our tuck-in acquisition strategy is where we look at the opportunities to add to the network in some of these key regions.

事實上，我們的附加收購策略的關鍵組成部分是尋找在一些關鍵地區擴大網路的機會。

And as we do that, we look at the opportunities for network optimization and again, serving our growers and improve service levels.

當我們這樣做時，我們會尋找網路優化的機會，並再次為我們的種植者提供服務並提高服務水準。

And with respect to crop protection, I'll pass that one over to Jeff Tarsi.

關於作物保護，我將把這個問題交給傑夫塔西 (Jeff Tarsi)。

Thanks, Ken.

謝謝，肯。

And I agree with everything you said on the rationalization of our network.

我同意您關於我們網絡合理化所說的一切。

We do -- we work on that each and every year.

我們確實——我們每年都在致力於此。

We're having to service larger growers today and their needs are different, and we're servicing out of fewer but more efficient branches in order to meet the demand of those growers as they consolidate and get larger in size as well.

如今，我們必須為規模更大的種植者提供服務，他們的需求也有所不同。

From a crop protection standpoint, we built some growth into our top line on crop protection for '25 and that's looking to claw back at some business that we think we missed last year in May due to wet cool weather in the growing season.

從作物保護的角度來看，我們在25年的作物保護業務中實現了一定程度的成長，我們希望能夠挽回去年5月份由於生長季的潮濕涼爽天氣而錯失的一些業務。

At the midpoint of our guidance range, we've -- as Mark spoke to earlier, we penciled in historical crop protection margins of the 2025 year.

在我們的指導範圍的中點，正如馬克之前所說的那樣，我們預計了 2025 年的作物保護歷史利潤率。

We think we will -- there is some generic pressure out there.

我們認為我們會的——確實存在一些普遍的壓力。

So we think that upfront margins could get some pressure there.

因此我們認為前期利潤可能會面臨一些壓力。

But again, and we've made significant improvements in our margins in the Brazilian market as well.

但是，我們在巴西市場的利潤率也取得了顯著的提高。

And we're sitting in a really good position from an inventory standpoint on crop protection, we've driven our inventory down in all of our major markets on crop protection on a year-over-year basis.

從農作物保護庫存的角度來看，我們處於非常有利的地位，與去年同期相比，我們在所有主要市場的農作物保護庫存都有所下降。

So we feel good about where we're sitting for the spring, and the opportunity that we might have in front of us.

因此，我們對於春季所處的位置以及我們可能面臨的機會感到很滿意。

Chris Parkinson from Wolfe Research.

來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Parkinson。

It's actually Andrew on for Chris.

實際上是安德魯 (Andrew) 代替克里斯 (Chris)。

So looking sort of towards capital allocation, can you speak to what you're seeing out there in the M&A environment and your appetite to add smaller global tuck-ins, and how should we think about that versus share buybacks, dividends, et cetera?

那麼從資本配置的角度來看，您能否談談您在併購環境中看到的情況以及您對增加小型全球收購的興趣，以及我們應該如何看待這一點與股票回購、股息等？

Thanks, Andrew, for the question.

謝謝安德魯提問。

So you will have seen it.

所以你一定會看到它。

We just increased our dividend, and that's increased on a per share basis, 36% since the company was formed.

我們剛剛提高了股息，自公司成立以來，每股股息增加了 36%。

And we use the word stable and growing, and we can kind of think of it in that $1 billion range as we continue to fund the dividend.

我們使用「穩定」和「成長」這兩個詞，我們可以將其想像為 10 億美元的範圍，因為我們會繼續為股息提供資金。

We can talk about sources and uses after that.

然後我們可以討論來源和用途。

But to your point, free cash flow and how we might look to utilize that, certainly, we're watching the tuck-in opportunity pipeline.

但就您提到的自由現金流以及我們如何利用它而言，當然，我們正在關注隱藏的機會管道。

But maybe I'll pass over to Mark to talk more about that.

但也許我會讓馬克來進一步談論這個問題。

Thanks, Ken.

謝謝，肯。

And as Ken said, Andrew, maybe I'll just step back for a second.

正如肯所說，安德魯，也許我只是暫時退一步。

I think it's worth mentioning again just the intense focus we have on structurally growing sources of cash in the company.

我認為值得再次提及的是，我們高度重視公司結構性增加的現金來源。

So the single biggest driver we have of that is continuing to grow cash flow from operations by progressing towards our 2026 targets.

因此，我們最大的驅動力就是繼續增加營運現金流，朝向 2026 年的目標邁進。

As we've said today, we made good progress on all fronts in 2024.

正如我們今天所說，2024 年我們在各方面都取得了良好進展。

We expect to continue moving forward in 2025.

我們預計2025年將繼續前進。

And alongside that, progressing our review and monetization of noncore assets, and that's also something we plan to continue looking out in 2025 and being disciplined with working capital management and driving efficiency in our cash conversion ratio.

除此之外，我們還要推動非核心資產的審查和貨幣化，這也是我們計劃在 2025 年繼續關注的事情，嚴格營運資本管理，提高現金轉換率的效率。

So growing sources of cash over time is the first objective.

因此，隨著時間的推移增加現金來源是首要目標。

And then on your question about how we're utilizing our deploying that cash, maybe just to walk through that capital allocation stack as we see it for 2025.

然後關於你提到的我們如何利用和部署這些現金的問題，也許只是來看看我們在 2025 年看到的資本配置堆疊。

We expect to deploy total capital of about $2 billion to $2.1 billion, which we've optimized lower once again this year.

我們預計部署的總資本約為 20 億至 21 億美元，今年我們再次對此數字進行了最佳化。

This is comprised of about $1.6 billion in sustaining capital, and we expect about $400 million to $500 million in growth capital, and that's that narrowed and focused set of priorities that Ken and I both spoke to in our prepared remarks.

這其中包括約 16 億美元的維持資本，以及我們預計約 4 億至 5 億美元的成長資本，這就是肯和我在我們的準備好的發言中談到的縮小和集中的優先事項。

Beyond that, we expect to have about $0.5 billion in capital leases.

除此之外，我們預計資本租賃總額將達到約 5 億美元。

And as Ken mentioned, about $1 billion towards that stable and growing dividend per share, which for shareholders today provides just over a 4% return.

正如肯所提到的那樣，每股約 10 億美元用於穩定和成長的股息，這對今天的股東來說提供了略高於 4% 的回報。

So when you take all of those things into account, that's about $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion in total uses.

因此，如果將所有這些因素都考慮進去，總使用金額約為 35 億至 36 億美元。

And as Ken highlighted, really every dollar beyond that, we're looking at effectively two things.

正如肯所強調的，實際上，超出這一範圍的每一美元，我們實際上都在關注兩件事。

Bolt-on acquisitions, primarily in the US but continue to look in Australia.

附加收購，主要在美國，但繼續在澳洲尋找。

And we think in this environment, we are going to see more of those opportunities in the US come our way.

我們認為，在這種環境下，我們將會看到美國有更多這樣的機會。

As well as share repurchases.

以及股票回購。

And you saw it since the second half of the year through today, we've been in the market on a ratable basis.

正如您所看到的，從今年下半年到今天，我們一直按比例的方式進入市場。

We feel that's an attractive use of capital today on the share repurchase front that competes quite attractively with other alternatives.

我們認為，這是目前股票回購方面一種很有吸引力的資本用途，與其他替代方案相比具有相當強的競爭力。

We intend in 2025 for that to be a continued meaningful part of our return of capital and capital deployment framework.

我們希望在 2025 年將其作為我們資本回報和資本配置框架中持續且有意義的一部分。

So we expect to be in the market going forward on a ratable basis.

因此，我們期望未來能夠以比例的方式進入市場。

Edlain Rodriguez from Mizuho.

瑞穗的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

Just one quick one on potash.

關於鉀肥，我只想簡單說一下。

Your volume guidance is essentially flat.

您的成交量指引基本持平。

Price, who knows, it will do what it does.

價格，誰知道呢，它會做它該做的事。

Can you talk about what your cost on a per tonne basis?

您能談談每噸的成本是多少嗎？

Should we expect any improvement there?

我們應該期待那裡有所改善嗎？

Or should it be similar to what we saw in 2024?

或應該與我們在 2024 年看到的類似？

Thanks, Edlain.

謝謝，埃德萊恩。

Yes, so with respect to how we're positioning ourselves among the 71 million to 75 million tonnes that we talked about for global shipments for 2025.

是的，關於我們如何定位自己，我們談到的 2025 年全球出貨量為 7,100 萬至 7,500 萬噸。

It really is us expanding our volumes incrementally as we've done last year for the last number of years and maintenance and market share at about that sort of 19.5%.

正如我們去年所做的那樣，過去幾年我們確實在逐步擴大我們的銷量，維護和市場份額保持在 19.5% 左右。

That's how we're planning our movements.

這就是我們計劃行動的方式。

And so what that volume and volume range means for our cost of production.

那麼該數量和數量範圍對於我們的生產成本意味著什麼。

We've talked about kind of that $60 a tonne is something that we point to.

我們已經討論過，每噸 60 美元是我們所指的價格。

And this is something we pointed to for some time, in other words, we have been fighting back inflation and the biggest component of that has been and will be automating our mining machines as we improve productivity as we improve asset utilization and that contributes, obviously, to fighting inflationary pressures, which are very real, in service of that $60 a tonne.

這是我們一段時間以來一直強調的一點，換句話說，我們一直在抗擊通貨膨脹，其中最大的舉措一直是並將繼續是實現採礦機器的自動化，以提高生產力和資產利用率，這顯然有助於對抗通膨壓力，而通膨壓力是真實存在的，為了實現每噸 60 美元的目標。

Lucas Beaumont from UBS.

瑞銀的盧卡斯·博蒙特（Lucas Beaumont）。

So I just want to get back to nitrogen.

所以我只想回到氮氣。

So I mean prior to the war, the top of the cost curve there was about 40% below where the sort of European gas outlook is for this year.

所以我的意思是，在戰爭之前，那裡的成本曲線的頂端比今年歐洲天然氣的前景低約 40%。

So now with sort of talk of things to be normalizing there.

現在正在討論那裡的事情是否能夠正常化。

Could you walk us through your range of outcomes for how you see the cost curve kind of responding if we have a revolution there to the war in Europe?

您能否向我們介紹一下，如果歐洲發生革命，您認為成本曲線會產生什麼樣的反應？

Great.

偉大的。

I will pass that over to Jason Newton, our Chief Economist, and talk about exactly the moving parts there.

我將把這個問題交給我們的首席經濟學家傑森·牛頓 (Jason Newton)，並詳細討論其中的具體細節。

Lucas.

盧卡斯。

Yes, you're right that we have seen an increase in the cost curve, particularly if we look at ammonia and UAN, but also urea, just driven by the increase in the price of gas in Europe.

是的，您說得對，我們看到成本曲線正在上升，特別是如果我們看氨和 UAN，還有尿素，這僅僅是受歐洲天然氣價格上漲的推動。

And as Ken mentioned, we've seen that pretty volatile of late.

正如肯所提到的，我們發現最近這種狀況相當不穩定。

I think as high as $18 per MMBtu last week.

我認為上週價格高達每百萬英熱單位 18 美元。

It's down in the $15 per MMBtu range today.

如今，價格已跌至每百萬英熱單位約 15 美元。

And that curve is pretty flat as we look throughout the year.

從全年來看，該曲線相當平坦。

We know that as we look through the end of 2025, storage levels today are down significantly, and it's the first time since the world began that there's been a normal winter in Europe with cold weather driving down storage levels.

我們知道，展望 2025 年底，今天的儲存水準將大幅下降，這是世界誕生以來歐洲第一次出現正常的冬季，寒冷的天氣導致儲存水準下降。

And those will -- by regulation need to be rebuilt.

根據規定，這些都需要重建。

And so that's driving the outlook for gas costs today.

這就是決定當今天然氣成本前景的原因。

And so as we look through the end of the year, regardless of what happens with respect to sanctions, that gas supply in Europe is likely to be tight.

因此，展望今年底，無論制裁情況如何，歐洲的天然氣供應都可能出現緊張。

That said, there's potential for volatility in that price.

話雖如此，該價格仍有可能出現波動。

In any scenario, we'd expect that the cost curve will remain above where it was prior to the war beginning just given the reliance on imported LNG into Europe.

無論如何，考慮到歐洲對進口液化天然氣的依賴，我們預計成本曲線將保持在戰爭開始前的水平之上。

I think the other important point is that we've seen already significant permanent closures of ammonia capacity in Europe.

我認為另一個重要點是我們已經看到歐洲大量氨產能永久關閉。

It continues to be over 20% of the production shut down today due to high natural gas prices.

由於天然氣價格高企，目前仍有超過20%的產能停產。

And we wouldn't expect that to come on stream as we go through the year.

而且我們也不指望這種情況會在一年內發生。

And the other factor to watch as we go forward is just the limited amount of new supply coming on stream, particularly of urea.

我們未來需要關注的另一個因素是新供應量有限，特別是尿素。

And so we'd expect the supply-demand balance to tighten over the medium term, just given continued demand growth exceeding capacity additions.

因此，我們預計，由於需求成長持續超過產能增加，中期內供需平衡將會收緊。

Rahi Parikh from Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Rahi Parikh。

Awesome.

驚人的。

You all touched on some dynamics in Brazil, but can you give a deep dive on progress in destocking at the distributor, retail and farmer level?

你們都談到了巴西的一些動態，但你能否深入了解經銷商、零售商和農民層面去庫存的進展？

And also on the farmer credit environment, are you lending more?

另外，在農民信貸環境方面，你們是否會增加貸款？

Are you becoming more particular on who you sell to down there, similar to one of your competitors?

就像您的競爭對手一樣，您是否對銷售對像也變得更加挑剔？

Thanks for the question, Rahi.

謝謝你的提問，拉希。

I'll pass that over to Jeff Tarsi to talk about what we're actually seeing on the ground.

我將把這個問題交給傑夫·塔西來談談我們在實地看到的情況。

Look, we -- and I'll tell you from our perspective within our business operations there, we've had a very clear objective to drive our inventory down in that Brazilian market.

你看，從我們在巴西業務營運的角度來說，我們有一個非常明確的目標，那就是降低巴西市場的庫存。

And actually, year-over-year basis, we've driven our inventory down 46%, which puts us in a really good position.

實際上，與去年同期相比，我們的庫存下降了 46%，這使我們處於非常有利的地位。

It takes a lot of risk out of our business from that standpoint.

從這個角度來看，這消除了我們業務中存在的許多風險。

I would think that at the farm gate, there has been destocking over the last two years in that market, and it's become more and more of a just-in-time marketplace in Brazil because of some of the events we've seen over the last two to three years.

我認為，在農場門口，過去兩年來該市場一直在減少庫存，而且由於我們在過去兩三年中看到的一些事件，巴西的市場越來越像一個即時市場。

And from a credit side of things, we're always gauging our credit as intensely as we possibly can.

從信用方面來看，我們總是盡可能嚴格地評估我們的信用。

Brazil would be no exception to us in that marketplace, and we've got a -- we've stood up a very strong credit team there, and we continue to analyze that and make really good decisions based on the P&L opportunities of the customer.

巴西市場對我們來說也不例外，我們在那裡建立了一支非常強大的信貸團隊，我們會繼續分析這一點，並根據客戶的損益機會做出真正好的決策。

Aron Ceccarelli of Berenberg.

貝倫貝格的 Aron Ceccarelli。

I think we come from two years of volumes above long-term trend for potash.

我認為，過去兩年鉀肥產量均高於長期趨勢。

And this year, we have very supportive dynamics for ag in general after the recent rally in corn prices.

今年，玉米價格近期上漲，對農業整體而言具有十分有利的推動力。

Just wondering, maybe can you talk a little bit about the lower end of the guidance for global potash shipments, where you mentioned reduced availability.

只是想知道，您能否談談全球鉀肥出貨量指引的下限，您提到了供應量的減少。

But I would like to understand a little bit what does it mean?

但我想稍微了解一下這是什麼意思？

Thank you for the question, Aron.

謝謝你的提問，阿隆。

And so yes, it's absolutely true that we've seen two years of growth in potash demand, and we're expecting a little bit more this year and really is just that return to trend level demand that we talk about from sort of prewar levels and 2.5% average annual growth rates as the world seeks to grow more food.

是的，我們確實看到鉀肥需求連續兩年增長，而且我們預計今年的需求還會略有增長，即需求將回歸到戰前的趨勢水平，隨著世界尋求種植更多的糧食，年均增長率將達到 2.5%。

When we talk about the guidance range for this year, at the top end, we talked about strong egg fundamentals, a good spring planting season in North America and some of the other strength that we talked about in Southeast Asia in record fertilizer consumption in Brazil last year and looking for that to increase again this year.

當我們談論今年的指導範圍時，在最高端，我們談到了強勁的雞蛋基本面，北美良好的春季種植季節，以及我們談到的東南亞的一些其他優勢，去年巴西的化肥消費量創下了歷史新高，並期待今年再次增加。

So strong demand fundamentals, the low end of that range is really -- it is a supply-side discussion.

因此強勁的需求基本面，範圍的低端實際上——這是供應方面的討論。

And that is, again, we've seen some significant announcements this year of maintenance and even operational challenges in some of those key producing regions.

也就是說，我們今年再次看到一些重要公告，宣布一些主要產區將面臨維護甚至營運挑戰。

So that in the limitation this year, we believe, in the face of strong demand would be -- on the low end, would be availability of supply.

因此，我們認為，今年面臨的限制是，面對強勁的需求，供應量將處於低端​​。

Michael Tupholme from TD Cowen.

TD Cowen 的 Michael Tupholme。

Earlier in the call, you talked about tariffs.

在早些時候的通話中，您談到了關稅問題。

In your 2025 potash sales volume guidance, you noted that the guidance range tends to account for some uncertainty on the tariff front.

在您的2025年鉀肥銷售量指引中，您指出指引範圍往往會考慮關稅方面的一些不確定性。

So the question is, I'm wondering if you can expand on that and speak to what sort of tariff-related assumptions you've made in coming up with your own potash volume guidance for 2025.

所以問題是，我想知道您是否可以詳細說明這一點，並談談您在製定 2025 年鉀肥產量指導時做出了哪些與關稅相關的假設。

Yes, you bet, Mike.

是的，你猜對了，麥克。

It really is a question of timing and maybe buyer behavior, but I'll pass it over to Mark to talk about our assumptions there.

這確實是一個時機問題，也可能是買家行為的問題，但我會將其交給馬克來談談我們的假設。

Thanks, Ken.

謝謝，肯。

I think Ken characterized the high and low ends of the global shipments range really well during the last question.

我認為 Ken 在最後一個問題中很好地描述了全球出貨量範圍的高端和低端。

So maybe just stick to what you've asked about on tariffs.

因此也許只需堅持你所詢問的有關關稅的問題。

Really, if you look at our guidance range, 13.6 million to 14.4 million tonnes.

確實，如果你看看我們的指導範圍，是1360萬至1440萬噸。

At that midpoint of 14 million tonnes, we assume relatively limited impact from potential tariffs and really no material supply chain disruptions to speak of.

在 1,400 萬噸的中間值下，我們假設潛在關稅的影響相對有限，並且實際上不會出現任何值得一提的重大供應鏈中斷。

So that would generally characterize the midpoint of our guidance.

所以這通常代表了我們指導的中間點。

If you look to the upper end of our guidance, we would assume no impact from tariffs and really no supply chain disruptions.

如果您查看我們的指導上限，我們會假設關稅不會產生影響，並且供應鏈也不會中斷。

On the lower end is really where the tariffs question comes into play, and it's really a lot, as Ken said, it's really the potential timing impacts that any tariffs would have on demand in North America, and we do see that more as a timing-related factor, and that would sort of characterize how we're thinking about that 13.6 million tonnes on the lower end of our guidance.

在下限方面，關稅問題確實發揮了作用，而且正如肯所說，這確實是一個很大的問題，任何關稅都會對北美的需求產生潛在的時間影響，我們確實認為這更多地是一個與時間相關的因素，這在某種程度上描述了我們如何看待指導下限 1,360 萬噸。

Thank you.

謝謝。

As there are no further questions at this time.

因為現在沒有其他問題。

I will now turn the call back to Jeff Holzman for closing remarks.

現在我將請 Jeff Holzman 作結束語。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

The Investor Relations team is available if you have follow-up questions.

如果您有後續問題，投資者關係團隊將為您提供協助。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。