Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2024 fourth-quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Holzman, VP of Investor Relations.

您好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。現在，我想將電話會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Jeff Holzman。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information.

謝謝您，接線生。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。在我們進行此電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計畫和前景所做的各種陳述都包含前瞻性資訊。

Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions is contained in our quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form.

在得出這些結論和預測時應用了某些假設。因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性資訊中的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的更多資訊包含在我們向股東提交的季度報告以及我們最新的年度報告、管理層討論與分析 (MD&A) 和年度資訊表中。

I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO; and Mark Thompson, our CFO, for opening comments.

現在，我將把電話轉給 Nutrien 總裁兼執行長 Ken Seitz 和我們的財務長 Mark Thompson，請他們發表開場評論。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to review our 2024 results and the outlook for the year ahead. Nutrien has a world-class asset base and a resilient business model that is built to withstand economic uncertainty, geopolitical shifts and perform in all sets of market conditions. In a world that is increasingly complex, having a clear vision and strategy is vitally important.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們，回顧我們的 2024 年業績並展望未來一年。Nutrien 擁有世界一流的資產基礎和有彈性的商業模式，能夠抵禦經濟不確定性、地緣政治變化並在各種市場條件下表現出色。在日益複雜的世界中，擁有清晰的願景和策略至關重要。

For Nutrien, this means strengthening our core business across the ag value chain and taking a disciplined and intentional approach to capital allocation. To measure success against the execution of our strategy, we set 2026 performance targets that we believe provide a pathway for driving structural improvements to our earnings and free cash flow.

對 Nutrien 來說，這意味著加強我們在整個農業價值鏈中的核心業務，並採取嚴謹而有目的的資本配置方法。為了衡量我們策略執行的成功程度，我們設定了 2026 年的績效目標，我們相信這些目標為推動我們的收益和自由現金流的結構性改善提供了途徑。

In 2024, we made meaningful progress toward these targets. In our upstream businesses, we increased fertilizer sales volumes by nearly 1 million tonnes compared to 2023. We sold record potash volumes and progressed nitrogen brownfield expansions at 2 of our North American sites. We mined 35% of our potash ore tonnes using automation, progressing towards our 2026 target of 40% to 50%. These advancements provide efficiency, flexibility and most importantly, safety benefits at our sites.

2024年，我們朝著這些目標取得了有意義的進展。在我們的上游業務中，與 2023 年相比，我們的化肥銷量增加了近 100 萬噸。我們在北美的兩處工廠銷售了創紀錄的鉀肥，並推進了氮肥棕地擴建。我們利用自動化開採了 35% 的鉀礦，並朝著 2026 年 40% 至 50% 的目標邁進。這些進步為我們的工廠提供了效率、靈活性，最重要的是安全優勢。

We enhanced our midstream distribution capabilities, including the opening of a new potash terminal in the U.S. Corn Belt. Investments in our global distribution network will continue to be a priority in the years ahead. to ensure we can efficiently serve our customers and support our growth objectives. Downstream, we increased retail product margins and lowered expenses through efforts to simplify our business and optimize our network.

我們增強了中游分銷能力，包括在美國玉米帶開設一個新的鉀肥終端。未來幾年，我們將繼續優先投資全球分銷網絡，以確保我們能夠有效地服務客戶並支持我們的成長目標。在下游，我們透過努力簡化業務和優化網路來提高零售產品利潤率並降低費用。

In Brazil, our improvement plan is beginning to deliver results as we saw green shoots in the region during the fourth quarter. We remain confident in the growth platforms that support our 2026 retail adjusted EBITDA target of $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion. We accelerated the timeline for achieving $200 million in annual cost savings and expect to achieve this target in 2025, 1 year earlier than our initial goal. Lastly, we optimized capital spending in 2024, reducing total expenditures by $450 million compared to 2023. Together, these actions position Nutrien to countercyclically deploy capital towards high conviction opportunities that improve earnings and cash flow per share through the cycle.

在巴西，我們的改進計劃開始取得成效，因為我們在第四季度看到了該地區的復甦跡象。我們仍然對支持我們實現 2026 年零售調整後 EBITDA 目標（19 億美元至 21 億美元）的成長平台充滿信心。我們加快了實現每年節省 2 億美元成本的時間表，並預計在 2025 年實現這一目標，比我們最初的目標提前 1 年。最後，我們優化了 2024 年的資本支出，與 2023 年相比，總支出減少了 4.5 億美元。綜合起來，這些措施使 Nutrien 能夠逆週期地將資本部署到具有高信心的機會中，從而在整個週期內提高每股收益和現金流。

Now turning to a review of our 2024 financial results. Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion in 2024, as lower fertilizer prices more than offset increased downstream retail earnings, higher upstream fertilizer volumes and lower costs. Retail adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.7 billion up 16% from the prior year.

現在來回顧我們的 2024 年財務表現。2024 年，Nutrien 的調整後 EBITDA 達到 54 億美元，因為化肥價格的下降抵消了下游零售收益的增加、上游化肥產量的增加和成本的降低。零售調整後的 EBITDA 總額為 17 億美元，比上年增長 16%。

This result exceeded our most recent full year guidance due to stronger-than-expected crop protection margins in North America, improved Brazilian retail performance and the benefit from cost savings and asset sales in the fourth quarter. North American crop nutrient margins increased due to a stabilization of fertilizer markets and continued growth of our proprietary crop nutritional and biostimulant product lines.

由於北美作物保護利潤率高於預期、巴西零售業績改善以及第四季度成本節約和資產出售的好處，這一業績超過了我們最近的全年預期。由於肥料市場的穩定以及我們專有的作物營養和生物刺激素產品線的持續增長，北美作物營養利潤率增加。

This more than offset lower North American sales volumes which were impacted by lower corn acres and wet weather during the spring and fall application seasons. Crop protection margins improved in 2024, supported by proprietary product growth, strong operational execution and the selling through of lower cost inventory.

這足以抵消北美銷售下降的影響，北美銷售下降是由於春季和秋季施用季節玉米種植面積減少和潮濕天氣造成的。2024 年，作物保護利潤率有所提高，這得益於專有產品的成長、強勁的營運執行以及低成本庫存的銷售。

Higher seed margins in North America more than offset the impact of dry weather and competitive market pressures in Brazil. In potash, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion, down from the prior year due to lower net selling prices. Low channel inventories and strong potash affordability supported increased customer demand and higher sales volumes.

北美較高的種子利潤足以抵銷巴西乾旱天氣和競爭市場壓力的影響。在鉀肥業務方面，我們的調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤為 18 億美元，由於淨售價下降，低於上年水準。較低的通路庫存和強勁的鉀肥承受能力支持了客戶需求的增加和銷售量的提高。

We increased production from our low-cost 6-mine network and progressive mine automation which contributed to a 7% reduction in our potash controllable cash cost per tonne. Our nitrogen segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion, relatively flat to the prior year as higher sales volumes and lower natural gas costs offset a reduction in net selling prices.

我們透過低成本的 6 座礦場網路和先進的礦場自動化提高了產量，這使每噸鉀肥可控現金成本降低了 7%。我們的氮氣部門產生了 19 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，與去年基本持平，因為銷售量的增加和天然氣成本的降低抵消了淨銷售價格的下降。

With the completion of GHG projects in our nitrogen business and changes to our product mix, we achieved a 15% reduction in our total Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions intensity in 2024 compared to the 2018 base year. In phosphate, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $384 million, down from the prior year, primarily due to lower production which was impacted by weather-related events and plant outages in 2024. Now turning to the market outlook for 2025.

隨著我們氮氣業務中溫室氣體專案的完成和產品結構的變化，與 2018 年基準年相比，到 2024 年，我們的範圍 1 和 2 溫室氣體排放強度將降低 15%。在磷酸鹽業務方面，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 3.84 億美元，低於前一年，主要原因是 2024 年受天氣相關事件和工廠停工影響，產量下降。現在來談談2025年的市場展望。

Global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low, providing a supportive environment for ag commodities. Demand for U.S. corn has been strong, tightening the projected supply and demand balance and supporting prices. We expect U.S. corn acreage to increase to a range of 91 million to 93 million acres and anticipate strong demand for crop inputs in the first half of the year.

全球糧食庫存與使用比率仍處於歷史低點，為農產品提供了支撐環境。美國玉米需求強勁，預計供需平衡趨緊，以支撐價格。我們預計美國玉米種植面積將增加至 9,100 萬至 9,300 萬英畝，並預計今年上半年對作物投入的需求強勁。

For potash, we increased our 2025 global shipment forecast to a range of 71 million to 75 million tonnes. The high end captures the potential for stronger underlying global consumption and the lower end captures the potential for reduced global supply availability.

對於鉀肥，我們將 2025 年全球出貨量預測上調至 7,100 萬至 7,500 萬噸。高端體現了全球消費增強的潛力，低端體現了全球供應減少的潛力。

We see potential for further supply tightness with limited global potash capacity additions this year and reported operational challenges and maintenance work in key producing regions. Global nitrogen markets continue to be impacted by regional supply constraints, elevated natural gas prices in Europe and seasonal buying patterns. The U.S.

由於今年全球鉀肥產能增加有限，且主要產區面臨營運挑戰和維護工作，我們認為供應可能進一步緊張。全球氮氣市場持續受到區域供應限制、歐洲天然氣價格上漲和季節性購買模式的影響。美國

nitrogen market is currently tight as net import volumes through the first half of the fertilizer year were down 60% compared to the 5-year average. Nitrogen demand is expected to be strong in the spring due to the limited fall ammonia application season and higher projected corn acreage.

目前氮肥市場供應緊張，今年上半年的淨進口量與五年平均值相比下降了 60%。由於秋季氨施用季節有限且預計玉米種植面積增加，預計春季氮需求將強勁。

I will now turn it over to Mark to provide more details on our 2025 guidance assumptions and our capital allocation plans.

現在我將把時間交給馬克，讓他提供有關我們 2025 年指導假設和資本配置計劃的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Ken. Good morning, everyone. As Ken highlighted, we made meaningful progress towards our 2026 performance targets this past year and see continued opportunities in 2025 to create value through focused execution and disciplined capital allocation. Our annual potash sales volume guidance of 13.6 million to 14.4 million tonnes is consistent with our global shipments outlook and accounts for some level of uncertainty regarding the potential impact of tariffs on Canadian exports as well as global supply availability. In North America, our winter fill program was fully subscribed, and we have since increased reference prices by $45 per short tonne reflect tightening global market fundamentals.

謝謝，肯。大家早安。正如肯所強調的，我們在過去的一年裡朝著 2026 年的績效目標取得了重大進展，並看到 2025 年繼續有機會透過專注的執行和嚴格的資本配置來創造價值。我們對鉀肥年銷售量的預期為 1,360 萬噸至 1,440 萬噸，這與我們對全球出貨量的預期一致，並且在一定程度上反映了關稅對加拿大出口以及全球供應量的潛在影響的不確定性。在北美，我們的冬季填充計劃已全部完成，此後我們已將參考價格提高 45 美元/短噸，以反映全球市場基本面收緊。

In nitrogen, we expect continued reliability improvements to support higher operating rates and annual sales volumes of 10.7 million to 11.2 million tonnes. Our low-cost nitrogen assets remain geographically advantaged compared to major offshore production regions. We project Henry Hub natural gas prices will average between $3.25 and $3.50 per MMBtu in 2025, and our Western Canadian nitrogen plants will benefit from gas prices well below these levels.

在氮氣方面，我們預計可靠性將持續提高，以支援更高的營運率和 1,070 萬至 1,120 萬噸的年銷售量。與主要海上生產地區相比，我們的低成本氮氣資產仍具有地理優勢。我們預計，2025 年亨利港天然氣價格平均將在每百萬英熱單位 3.25 美元至 3.50 美元之間，而我們位於加拿大西部的氮氣工廠將受益於遠低於這些水平的天然氣價格。

Our phosphate sales volume guidance of 2.35 million to 2.55 million tonnes reflects the expectation for lower production at our White Springs facility in the first half of 2025 and improved operating rates in the second half compared to the prior year. Our full year retail adjusted EBITDA guidance is $1.65 billion to $1.85 billion, supported by higher anticipated crop nutrient sales volumes, continued growth of our proprietary products and further margin recovery in Brazil.

我們對磷酸鹽銷售量的預期為 235 萬噸至 255 萬噸，這反映了我們預計 2025 年上半年 White Springs 工廠的產量將下降，而下半年的開工率將比去年同期有所提高。我們的全年零售調整後 EBITDA 預期為 16.5 億美元至 18.5 億美元，這得益於預期作物營養素銷售量的增加、我們專有產品的持續增長以及巴西利潤率的進一步回升。

As Ken mentioned, our improvement plan in Brazil is beginning to show encouraging results, and we remain focused on initiatives that improve cash flow from the business. We expect the benefits of these organic growth initiatives in retail will be partially offset by foreign exchange headwinds of approximately $25 million and the absence of asset sales and other income items realized in 2024 that totaled approximately $50 million.

正如肯所提到的，我們在巴西的改進計畫開始顯示出令人鼓舞的成果，我們仍然專注於改善業務現金流的措施。我們預計，這些零售業有機成長措施帶來的好處將被約 2,500 萬美元的外匯逆風以及 2024 年實現的資產出售和其他收入項目總額約 5,000 萬美元的缺失部分抵銷。

Looking ahead from a sources of cash perspective, we are delivering downstream retail earnings growth, increasing upstream fertilizer volumes and driving operational efficiencies and cost savings across our network. We continue to explore ways to simplify and focus our portfolio. This includes optimizing investments in working capital and reviewing assets on our balance sheet that may not warrant maintaining.

從現金來源的角度來看，我們正在實現下游零售收益成長，增加上游化肥產量，並提高整個網路的營運效率和成本節約。我們將繼續探索簡化和集中投資組合的方法。這包括優化營運資本投資和審查資產負債表上可能不需要維護的資產。

From a use of cash perspective, we expect to further optimize capital expenditures to a range of $2 billion to $2.1 billion in 2025. We've committed capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and to progress a set of targeted growth investments that have a strong fit with our strategy, provide returns in excess of our hurdle rates and have a relatively low degree of execution risk.

從現金使用角度來看，我們預計到 2025 年資本支出將進一步優化至 20 億美元至 21 億美元之間。我們已投入資金來維持安全可靠的運營，並推進一系列與我們的策略高度契合、提供超過我們的最低收益率的回報且執行風險相對較低的有針對性的成長投資。

Our focus is on investments in our proprietary products business, retail network optimization, nitrogen debottleneck projects and mine automation in potash. We continue to target a stable and growing dividend. With the increase approved by our Board of Directors yesterday, Nutrien's dividend per share has now been increased 7x since the beginning of 2018, for a total increase of 36%.

我們的重點是投資專有產品業務、零售網路優化、氮氣瓶頸專案和鉀肥礦山自動化。我們繼續以穩定和成長的股息為目標。隨著董事會昨天批准的增派，Nutrien 的每股股息自 2018 年初以來已增加了 7 倍，總計增加了 36%。

Our annualized dividend payment has remained stable at approximately $1 billion due to the significant reduction in share count over this time period. Additional free cash flow in 2025 will be allocated to a narrow set of incremental growth investments, including retail tuck-in acquisitions and to share repurchases. We'll maintain a disciplined approach to cash deployment that maximizes our risk-adjusted returns and supports growth in free cash flow per share.

由於在此期間股票數量大幅減少，我們的年度股息支付保持穩定在約 10 億美元。2025 年的額外自由現金流將分配給一系列增量成長投資，包括零售收購和股票回購。我們將保持嚴謹的現金配置方式，以最大化我們的風險調整回報並支持每股自由現金流的成長。

Since the second half of 2024, we have deployed approximately $290 million towards share repurchases, retiring 5.8 million shares. We intend on continuing to repurchase shares on a more ratable basis under our renewed NCIB program that is authorized until the end of February 2026.

自 2024 年下半年以來，我們已投入約 2.9 億美元用於股票回購，回購了 580 萬股。我們打算根據授權有效期至 2026 年 2 月底的更新後的 NCIB 計劃，繼續以更可評估的方式回購股票。

I'll now turn it back to Ken for closing remarks.

現在我把話題交還給肯，請他做最後發言。

Thanks, Mark. The outlook for our business in 2025 is supported by expectations for strong crop input demand and firming potash fundamentals. We continue to monitor geopolitical events and are positioned to respond under any scenario. Nutrien has a world-class asset base, and we remain focused on strategic priorities that strengthen the advantages of our business across the ag value chain. We would now be happy to take your questions.

謝謝，馬克。強勁的農作物投入需求和穩固的鉀肥基本面預期支撐了我們 2025 年的業務前景。我們持續關注地緣政治事件，並做好在任何情況下作出反應的準備。Nutrien 擁有世界一流的資產基礎，我們將繼續專注於策略重點，加強我們在整個農業價值鏈中的業務優勢。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

（操作員指示）豐業銀行的 Ben Isaacson。

A question on tariffs. Can you talk through how you think about tariff risk for nitrogen, potash and retail, both for Nutrien and for the industry. What are the factors that we should be considering when it comes to tariff risk?

關於關稅的問題。您能否談談您如何看待 Nutrien 和整個產業的氮、鉀和零售關稅風險？當談到關稅風險時，我們應該考慮哪些因素？

Yes. Thanks, Ben. Among those, and we looked at the impact on tariffs across everything that you've said, including some capital items that we look at across the border. And by far, the biggest discussion is about potash. And of course, agricultural trade and agricultural productivity in the U.S.

是的。謝謝，本。其中，我們研究了您所說的所有內容對關稅的影響，包括我們跨境研究的一些資本項目。到目前為止，討論最多的是有關鉀肥。當然還有美國的農業貿易和農業生產力。

requires -- and food security for that matter requires the free flow of these commodities across the border. We've had these dialogues, a lot of them with governments on both sides of the border, and we continue just to emphasize how reliant the U.S. farmer is on something like Canadian potash, for example, where Canadian supply -- over 80% of that market. We struck up a cross-functional team which extends across our government relations group, our commercial organization to make sure we can serve our U.S. customers in the way that we always have.

需要－事實上，糧食安全需要這些商品跨國自由流通。我們與邊境兩邊的政府進行過很多次對話，我們繼續強調美國農民對加拿大鉀肥等產品的依賴程度，例如，加拿大的供應量占美國鉀肥市場的 80% 以上。我們成立了一個跨職能團隊，其範圍涵蓋我們的政府關係小組和商業組織，以確保我們能夠像往常一樣為美國客戶提供服務。

And of course, in our finance group as we look at the mechanisms that might be in place to actually collect tariffs and how we would go about that. Today, we're confident as Nutrien that for us, we have those mechanisms in place. And frankly, that the cost of this would be borne by the U.S. farmer the tariff cost and tariff impact will be passed on to the U.S. farmer.

當然，我們的財務小組正在研究實際徵收關稅的機制以及我們將如何實施。今天，我們 Nutrien 堅信我們已經建立了這些機制。坦白說，這筆費用將由美國農民承擔，關稅成本和關稅影響將轉嫁給美國農民。

I will say that timing of this is all in question, of course, as we look at the 30 days and look at the April 1 review, so that it could be or maybe even likely is the case that we'll feel -- the U.S. farmer will feel those impacts after the spring planting season here. For our part, we have been filling the channel right through to our downstream network. And so that we're in a position to serve our U.S. customers in the way that we always have.

當然，我想說的是，這一切發生的時間都是有疑問的，因為我們會考慮這 30 天以及 4 月 1 日的審查，所以，我們可能會感覺到——美國農民會在春季種植季節後感受到這些影響。就我們而言，我們一直在填充直達下游網路​​的管道。這樣我們就能像往常一樣為美國客戶提供服務。

But like I say, we're of the view that tariffs are in place is going to be -- it's going to be a rising costs for the U.S. grower.

但就像我說的，我們認為關稅的實施將會導緻美國種植者的成本上升。

Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

史蒂夫漢森、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Your comments on improving Brazil results are quite encouraging. I was just hoping you could drill down a little further and perhaps add some commentary around where you're at on any specific actions you're taking specifically and then any broader macro variables that you also see influencing the pace of the recovery.

您對提高巴西成績的評論非常令人鼓舞。我只是希望您能夠進一步深入研究，並針對您所採取的具體行動以及您認為會影響復甦速度的任何更廣泛的宏觀變數添加一些評論。

Yes, for sure. Thanks, Steve. We've talked about what we've done on the cost side of the equation and head count reduction and focusing on our most productive salespeople. We've talked about the idling of our 5 lenders in Brazil. We've talked about the closure of unproductive locations and that's some of our actual retail distribution centers, but also our experience centers.

是的，當然。謝謝，史蒂夫。我們已經討論了在成本方面、裁減員工人數以及關注最有效率的銷售人員方面所做的工作。我們已經討論了巴西 5 家貸款機構的閒置問題。我們已經討論過關閉一些非生產性地點，其中包括我們的一些實際零售配送中心，以及我們的體驗中心。

We've shuttered over 50 of those. And we've talked about doubling down on proprietary products and that being certainly a great business for us and a growing business in Brazil. We put those all together and we find ourselves in a situation, yes, exactly as we described, we see green shoots in Brazil, it's not necessarily true that the market is moving along the way that I think the industry is hoping and high interest rates are still a source of challenge for the Brazilian agricultural complex. But our actions, I would say, are we're seeing those green shoots now, and you see that reflected in our results.

我們已經關閉了其中 50 多家。我們已經討論過加倍投入專有產品，這對我們來說無疑是一項偉大的業務，而且在巴西也是一項不斷增長的業務。綜合考慮這些因素，我們發現自己處於這樣一種境地，是的，正如我們所描述的，我們看到了巴西的復甦跡象，但市場並不一定按照我認為行業所希望的方式發展，高利率仍然是巴西農業綜合體面臨的挑戰。但我想說，我們的行動讓我們看到了復甦的曙光，而這也反映在我們的成果中。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Andrew Wong。

I just wanted to ask about potash. So we've seen prices strengthening recently. Just curious if you can just talk about some of the main factors that are behind that? How much of that is tariff driven with some -- maybe some purchases ahead of that potential outcome? And then how much of that comes from some of the supply issues that maybe came up earlier this year and how sustainable would you say current prices are into like the back half of this year?

我只是想問一下鉀肥的問題。因此，我們最近看到價格走強。我只是好奇，您是否可以談談這背後的一些主要因素？其中有多少是關稅推動的——也許是在出現潛在結果之前的一些購買？那麼，其中有多少是由於今年早些時候出現的一些供應問題造成的？您認為目前的價格在今年下半年能持續多久？

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. I would say we don't see much of an impact, if any, from -- as it relates to tariffs. And I think it's just so much uncertainty there that in terms of how that plays out, it really is a story about the fundamentals, but I'll pass over to Chris Reynolds to talk about that.

是的。謝謝，安德魯。我想說的是，我們看不到與關稅相關的太大影響（如果有的話）。我認為那裡存在太多的不確定性，就其如何發展而言，這實際上是一個關於基本面的故事，但我將邀請克里斯雷諾茲來談論這個問題。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. Andrew, as Ken said, we look at 2024 and the strong shipments we saw reaching an all-time record globally, what's constructive for us is that despite that strong shipment period through 2024, we came out of 2024 as we canvassed the markets and met with our customers that there was really no material carryover inventories in any of these major markets. And I think that's represented a strong disappearance that we saw. And so that's why we've seen increasing prices here as we exited '24 and come into 2025.

是的。謝謝，肯。安德魯，正如肯所說，我們展望 2024 年，我們看到強勁的出貨量達到了全球歷史最高水平，對我們來說有建設性的是，儘管 2024 年的出貨量強勁，但我們在 2024 年走出來時，我們對市場進行了調查並與客戶會面，發現這些主要市場中實際上沒有任何實質性的結轉庫存。我認為這代表了我們所看到的強烈消失。這就是為什麼我們在走出 24 年、進入 2025 年時看到這裡的價格上漲的原因。

And you go around the world a little bit here, you think about North America. We came up with a winter fill program here domestically to open the year, had a very good response to that and so much so that we implemented 2 price increases since that winter fill program, which has been absorbed into the market and validated with new orders because the affordability remains good for potash and obviously, with the backdrop of some very strong corn price and prospective corn acres.

如果你環遊世界一會兒，你會想到北美。我們在國內推出了一項冬季填充計劃來開啟新的一年，該計劃得到了非常好的反響，以至於我們在冬季填充計劃實施後實施了兩次價格上漲，這些價格上漲已被市場吸收並通過新訂單得到驗證，因為鉀肥的可負擔性仍然良好，顯然，在玉米價格非常強勁和玉米種植面積預期增加的背景下。

Also in Brazil, again, a record year for imports into Brazil in 2024, but then along with that, still very healthy spot demand, which has seen prices continue to increase here through the start of 2025. And then around the Asian markets, India, China and Southeast Asia, again, characterized by no material or burdensome inventories but some really good demand, particularly in Southeast Asia. And again, with that backdrop of some strong palm oil prices.

巴西也是如此，2024 年巴西的進口量再次創下歷史新高，但同時，現貨需求仍然非常旺盛，這使得巴西的價格在 2025 年初繼續上漲。然後是亞洲市場，印度、中國和東南亞，同樣沒有材料或繁重的庫存，但需求確實很好，特別是在東南亞。再次，在棕櫚油價格強勁的背景下。

So Andrew, I think we're feeling good to start the calendar year with the tailwinds we're seeing and are very constructive on the potash market.

因此，安德魯，我認為我們對新的一年感到很高興，因為我們看到了順風，並且對鉀肥市場非常有信心。

Joel Jackson, BMO.

喬爾傑克遜，BMO。

A couple of things. Your Henry Hub gas forecast between $3.25 and $3.50. -- obviously, as you're getting ready to give new forecast, we've seen gas prices surge. I mean, Henry Hub is averaging above $4 now for the year, about $4 for the year. Just talk about that, how that may impact your thinking and your earnings and your outlook.

有幾件事。您對亨利中心天然氣價格的預測在 3.25 美元至 3.50 美元之間。 ——顯然，當您準備給出新的預測時，我們已經看到天然氣價格飆升。我的意思是，亨利港現在的年平均價格超過 4 美元，大約是 4 美元。只需談論這一點，這可能會如何影響您的想法、收入和前景。

And then also, it looks like ammonia is really underperforming other parts of the nitrogen complex. Can you talk about that?

而且，看起來氨的表現確實不如氮複合物的其他部分。你能談談這個嗎？

Yes. So with respect to Henry Hub pricing, I'll pass it over to Trevor Williams just to talk about our view there. It continues to be the case that the delta between what we're seeing in European gas prices in North America is pretty dramatic. if you're at $16 today in Europe, that's a $600 essentially floor on what it costs to produce a tonne of ammonia. So the delta is important.

是的。因此，關於亨利港的定價，我將把它交給特雷弗威廉斯 (Trevor Williams)，讓他談談我們的看法。我們看到的歐洲天然氣價格與北美天然氣價格之間的差距仍然很大。如果今天歐洲的天然氣價格為 16 美元，那麼生產一噸氨的成本底線基本上是 600 美元。因此增量很重要。

But to your question about Henry Hub pricing, I'll pass that over to Trevor Williams. And then the ammonia question, I'll pass it over to Chris Reynolds.

但對於您關於亨利中心定價的問題，我會將其交給特雷弗威廉斯 (Trevor Williams)。然後關於氨的問題，我將把它交給克里斯·雷諾茲。

Joel, thanks for the question. And really, what we're seeing is North American prices obviously have been stronger, really as a result of some of the extreme weather that we've really seen over the course of the last number of months. And obviously, as a result, higher demand and some supply constraints on the downstream side or on the upstream side. Ultimately, though, the forecast for the end of winter is looking a little bit more mild as we get through this kind of the last little spell over the course of the next couple of weeks. And then we expect based on where we sit with storage, both storage as well as the production, we see those prices normalizing into the last part of the year.

喬爾，謝謝你的提問。事實上，我們看到的是北美的價格明顯走高，這實際上是由於過去幾個月我們確實看到的一些極端天氣造成的。顯然，其結果是，下游或上游的需求增加，而供應受到一些限制。不過，最終，隨著我們在接下來的幾週內度過這最後的短暫時期，冬季結束的預測看起來會更溫和一些。然後，我們預計，根據我們的儲存狀況（包括儲存和生產），這些價格將在今年下半年恢復正常。

Yes. No, just to comment on the ammonia market as we've seen it. And Joel, you're right, we did enter 2025 on a little bit of a declining trend in ammonia prices. Part of that was some weak application we saw in the fall season last year, impacted by weather and also the prospect of some new supply coming on to the market. But we're constructive on nitrogen overall.

是的。不，只是對我們所看到的氨市場進行評論。喬爾，你說得對，到 2025 年，氨價格確實出現了小幅下降的趨勢。部分原因是我們看到去年秋季的申請量疲軟，受到天氣以及一些新供應進入市場的前景的影響。但整體而言，我們對氮持建設性態度。

Some of that ammonia that didn't go down last fall is going to go down in the form of urea and UAN, particularly in North America. And so -- but we think that market is very tight and short right now, and we're seeing that in the price behavior of urea and UAN. So again, optimistic as we enter the spring season on nitrogen application rates, particularly with the prospect of over 90 million acres of corn.

去年秋季未下降的部分氨將以尿素和 UAN 的形式下降，特別是在北美。所以 — — 但我們認為目前市場非常緊張且短缺，我們從尿素和 UAN 的價格行為中看到了這一點。因此，隨著春季的到來，我們對氮肥施用量持樂觀態度，特別是考慮到玉米種植面積預計將超過 9,000 萬英畝。

Yes. And I might just add that we closed the year with quite strong ammonia pricing actually. And so yes, while it's softened a bit, we still look at the ammonia price and are constructive and call that a strong price.

是的。我還要補充一點，事實上，我們今年底的氨價格相當強勁。所以是的，雖然價格略有下降，但我們仍然關注氨價格，並且持建設性態度，稱之為強勁價格。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Good morning, everyone. Wondering if you could just talk a little bit about the potash market. And in particular, over a couple of years since the war in Ukraine, I think we've talked about the export costs for both Russia and Belarus having been increased materially and then having a favorable impact on delivered costs around the world. If we do envision and get to a point where that war is ended and Russia has more access to financial markets and maybe freight is more willing to transact with it, and there have been some headlines already about maybe Belarus has the sanctions taken away from it and maybe they get back to the Lithuanian ports. Is it the case that we would see some decline in the cost curve and that would have an impact?

大家早安。想知道您是否可以簡單談談鉀肥市場。特別是自烏克蘭戰爭爆發以來的幾年裡，我認為我們已經討論過俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的出口成本大幅增加，並對全球交付成本產生了有利影響。如果我們確實設想並達到戰爭結束的程度，俄羅斯可以更多地進入金融市場，也許貨運更願意與其進行交易，並且已經有一些頭條新聞報道說，也許白俄羅斯的製裁已經取消，也許他們可以回到立陶宛港口。我們是否會看到成本曲線有所下降並產生影響？

Or would your view be that capacity utilization now is tight enough that that's what's determining the price rather than the underlying delivered cost?

或者您認為現在產能利用率已經足夠緊張，以至於決定價格的因素是產能利用率而不是基礎交付成本？

Yes. Thanks, Vincent. And of course, it's been the case that potash prices have been below that last marginal cost tonne. And so we're just now seeing prices get to a level where you look at the right of the cost curve and we see demand meeting supply at that right side of the cost curve. As it relates to your question about FSU production, of course, for the Russians, those volumes were never sanctioned and we've seen all of that production back in the market for some time.

是的。謝謝，文森特。當然，事實是鉀肥價格一直低於最後一噸的邊際成本。因此，我們現在看到價格達到成本曲線右側的水平，並且我們看到成本曲線右側的需求滿足供應。至於您關於前蘇聯生產的問題，當然，對於俄羅斯人來說，這些產量從未受到批准，而且我們已經看到所有這些產量都回到了市場上一段時間。

It's a good question, Vincent, about Belarus and how that plays out in terms of lifting of sanctions, which I think is a big if. I mean these are challenges that existed prior to the conflict in Eastern Europe. But your question, if they were to be lifted. I think you said at -- the pivotal question is, does -- do the Belarusians get access through Port of Klaipeda in Lithuania again. I mean that port is now fully utilized with other commodities.

文森特，這是一個很好的問題，關於白俄羅斯以及它在解除制裁方面將如何發揮作用，我認為這是一個很大的「如果」。我的意思是，這些挑戰在東歐衝突之前就已經存在了。但你的問題是，如果它們被解除的話。我想你說過——關鍵問題是，白俄羅斯人是否可以再次通過立陶宛的克萊佩達港進入。我的意思是，該港口現在已充分利用了其他貨物。

And so are the Belarusians able to wedge their way back into that port? When Europe and the Lithuanians have been very clear about sanctions or no sanctions. That's not going to be made available. And so the Belarusians who have been the marginal producer on a delivered basis would continue to face increased costs as they'd have to head north into Russia and likely the Port of Murmansk. So it's just to say that if we saw those Belarusian volumes, the ones that continue to be shut and maybe a million times come back into the market, we think that happens slowly over time.

那麼白俄羅斯人是否能夠重新進入該港口呢？當歐洲和立陶宛人對制裁或不制裁的態度非常明確時。那是不會實現的。因此，作為邊際生產國的白俄羅斯人將繼續面臨成本增加，因為他們必須向北進入俄羅斯，甚至可能進入摩爾曼斯克港。所以，如果我們看到白俄羅斯的交易量，那些繼續被關閉的交易量，也許一百萬次地回到市場，我們認為這種情況會隨著時間的推移而慢慢發生。

We think that it continues to be more expensive for the Belarusians and that for your question, I think, your point, Vincent, is very relevant. We look at the fundamentals today and we say with demand having returning to trend levels, and we've been talking about that for some time. And that's going to continue to be the case this year, we believe. And then looking at the supply side of the equation, assuming some balance in there yet now with some announced maintenance programs and a key producing part of the world and some operational challenges in another part of the world, that's where we go to firming of the potash price.

我們認為，白俄羅斯人的生活成本仍然更高，對於您的問題，我認為，文森特，您的觀點非常中肯。我們今天看一下基本面，我們說需求已經恢復到趨勢水平，我們已經談論這個問題有一段時間了。我們相信，今年這種情況將會持續下去。然後看看等式的供應方，假設那裡有一些平衡，但現在有一些已宣布的維護計劃和世界主要生產地區以及世界另一地區的一些運營挑戰，這就是我們走向鉀肥價格堅挺的地方。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默。

I wanted to return to the retail outlook and the strong performance in the past year. certainly getting a lot of uplift from the improved CPC and seed environment. I'm wondering if you could double-click on those areas of the business and help us understand what your outlook assumes for 2025?

我想回顧一下零售業的前景和過去一年的強勁表現。當然，改善的 CPC 和種子環境帶來了很大的提升。我想知道您是否可以雙擊這些業務領域並幫助我們了解您對 2025 年的展望？

Yes. Absolutely. We've made some assumptions within our guidance range of 1.6 to -- $1.65 billion to $1.85 billion, and it really speaks to exactly some of those points. I'll pass it over to Mark to talk about that range and our assumptions.

是的。絕對地。我們在 16 億美元至 16.5 億美元至 18.5 億美元的指導範圍內做出了一些假設，這確實說明了其中的一些觀點。我將把它交給馬克來討論這個範圍和我們的假設。

Thanks, Ken. So yes, when we look at the bridge from 2024 to 2025, as Ken said, our midpoint of 2025 EBITDA guidance for retail is $1.75 billion. On a headline basis, this is up about $50 million versus 2024. But when we look at FX headwinds in the retail business from a stronger U.S. dollar, and the realization of some noncore asset sales and nonrecurring other income items we experienced in 2024, we would say our underlying EBITDA is projected to grow by about $125 million, that midpoint of $1.75 billion.

謝謝，肯。是的，當我們展望 2024 年到 2025 年時，正如肯所說，我們對 2025 年零售業 EBITDA 預期的中點是 17.5 億美元。從總體來看，這一數字比 2024 年增加了約 5,000 萬美元。但是，當我們考慮到美元走強為零售業務帶來的外匯逆風，以及我們在 2024 年經歷的一些非核心資產銷售和非經常性其他收入項目的實現時，我們會說，我們的基礎 EBITDA 預計將增長約 1.25 億美元，即 17.5 億美元的中點。

At that midpoint, coming to your question, we assume continued growth in our proprietary products business. We assume higher crop nutrient sales volumes year-of-year. And we do assume a continued recovery in our Brazilian business. In crop protection margins at roughly historical average levels. If we look to the upside of that range, we would be looking at factors like stronger corn acreage potentially and ag fundamentals strengthening or continuing to strengthen and crop protection margin performance above historical average levels.

在那個中間點，回答您的問題，我們假設我們的專有產品業務將繼續成長。我們預計作物營養素的銷售量將逐年增加。我們確實預期巴西業務將持續復甦。作物保護利潤率大致處於歷史平均。如果我們看向該範圍的上行，我們將關注玉米種植面積可能增加、農業基本面加強或持續加強以及作物保護利潤率表現高於歷史平均水平等因素。

On the downside of that range, we would be looking to factors like adverse weather during key application periods, weaker commodity pricing and a slower pace of recovery in Brazil. So from a bookend standpoint and at the midpoint, those are the factors that are the primary ones guiding our outlook for 2025 in retail.

在該範圍的下行方面，我們將關注關鍵申請期間的惡劣天氣、大宗商品價格走弱以及巴西復甦步伐放緩等因素。因此，從書擋和中間點來看，這些是指導我們對 2025 年零售業展望的主要因素。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

美國銀行的史蒂夫伯恩。

Yes. I'd like to follow that question with maybe a little bit of a longer-term outlook on your retail business. I got 4 potential growth drivers that come to mind and I was hoping you could just rank them. One would be just increased network density with bolt-ons. Another one would be -- you seem to be getting into more and more biologicals.

是的。我想根據這個問題對您的零售業務進行一些長期展望。我想到 4 個潛在的成長動力，希望您能對它們進行排名。一種方法是透過附加措施來增加網路密度。另一個問題是—您似乎對生物製劑的興趣越來越大。

Is that a meaningful longer-term growth driver for you? The third one would be SG&A in this segment is 90% of the company SG&A., is this -- do you see ways to reduce the headcount in that segment? And then just last one, I understand you have access to aerial imagery for this coming year in some of the Corn Belt. Is this a longer-term driver for you to help your customers and increase applications as necessary?

這對您來說是一個有意義的長期成長動力嗎？第三個是該部門的銷售、一般和行政費用占公司銷售、一般和行政費用的 90%。這是—您是否看到了減少該部門員工人數的方法？最後一點，我知道您可以獲得今年玉米帶部分地區的航空圖像。這是否是您幫助客戶並根據需要增加應用程式的長期動力？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Steve. And I think you pretty much rank ordered them. So we can certainly talk about all of those. Absolutely, tuck-ins has been a feature of our business and growth enabler for us and we have a long history and track record of doing that quite successfully.

是的。謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。我認為你對它們進行了大致的排序。所以我們當然可以談論所有這些。毫無疑問，Tuck-ins 一直是我們業務的特色，也是我們成長的推動力，我們在這方面有著悠久的歷史和相當成功的記錄。

Absolutely. Biologicals and biostimulants, crop nutritionals and proprietary overall is a big growth driver. Network optimization. We've talked a lot about that, which is to your SG&A question. But I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi, maybe to expand on each of those.

絕對地。生物製劑和生物刺激素、作物營養素和專有產品總體上是巨大的成長動力。網路優化。我們已經就此進行了很多討論，這是關於您的銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 問題。但我會把它交給 Jeff Tarsi，也許他會對每一個進行擴展。

Yes. Steve, and as we -- I'll kind of start with biologicals. We talked a lot about our nutritional and biostimulant business, and actually, last year was our second best year on our proprietary products business in history, only comparable with '22. Our nutrient biostimulant business grew 8% year-over-year, and we're projecting just under 15% growth in 2025. So that will be a real headline for us in 2025.

是的。史蒂夫，我們——我將從生物製劑開始。我們談論了很多有關營養和生物刺激素業務的事情，實際上，去年是我們專有產品業務歷史上表現第二好的一年，僅與 22 年相當。我們的營養生物刺激素業務年增 8%，預計 2025 年的成長率將略低於 15%。所以這將成為我們 2025 年的真正頭條新聞。

We're going to bring some new products into the market. We've talked about products like N-FINITY from that standpoint. On the SG&A side of it, we've been quite vocal that for 2025, we want to take $100 million of expense out of our retail business. We saw in the fourth quarter, we saw some of that come a little bit earlier than we anticipated from that standpoint. So we feel good about what we've talked about as far as rationalization of the network and controlling our [control], which is at the top of our list of priorities for 2025.

我們將向市場推出一些新產品。我們從這個角度討論了 N-FINITY 之類的產品。在銷售、一般和行政費用方面，我們一直明確表示，到 2025 年，我們希望從零售業務中削減 1 億美元的支出。我們在第四季度看到，從這個角度來看，其中一些情況比我們預期的要早一些。因此，我們對所討論的有關網路合理化和控制的內容感到滿意，這是我們 2025 年優先事項中的首要任務。

And then as you talk about aerial imagery, and we've been using that for some time. Obviously, we're using a lot of technology to date in our business. Our growers are using a lot of technology as well. And always say our challenge is try to stay one step ahead of our growers from that standpoint, but we'll be inflowing what we know from a pure agronomy basis and coupling that with the technology that the have in the marketplace today to build the best solutions that we can build for our growers to give them the best chance of return.

然後，正如您所說，我們已經使用了一段時間了。顯然，迄今為止我們在業務中使用了許多技術。我們的種植者也使用了許多技術。我們總是說，我們的挑戰是從這個角度嘗試領先我們的種植者一步，但我們將引入我們從純農學基礎中了解到的知識，並將其與當今市場上的技術相結合，為我們的種植者構建最佳解決方案，為他們提供最佳的回報機會。

Richard Garchitorena, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的理查德‧加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

Great. Good quarter. My question is on the nitrogen segment. Had strong results, saw improvement in the natural gas reliability North America improved, Trinidad operations. So maybe just give us an update in terms of where you think that segment is going into 2026 in terms of you're ramping up to that -- those 11.5 million to 12 million tonne target that depended, I think, on improved reliability of the infrastructure.

偉大的。好季度。我的問題是關於氮氣的部分。取得了強勁的業績，北美天然氣可靠性得到改善，特立尼達業務得到改善。因此，請您向我們介紹一下您認為到 2026 年該領域將會如何發展，以及您是否正在努力實現這一目標——1150 萬噸至 1200 萬噸的目標，我認為這取決於基礎設施可靠性的提高。

Thanks, Richard. And yes, it is true that we have been making investments in reliability initiatives across the network. We've been unlocking new volumes with attractive brownfield investments that we could talk about some of those that are even coming online this year, and we've improved gas utilization in Trinidad. That's all true. And that gives us confidence to be on this path when we talk about our Investor Day target of 11.5 million tons in 2026 and even 12 million tonnes if we were to get our full allocation of gas in Trinidad.

謝謝，理查。是的，我們確實一直在對整個網路的可靠性計劃進行投資。我們一直在透過有吸引力的棕地投資來開拓新的產能，我們可以談論其中一些甚至在今年上線的項目，並且我們已經提高了特立尼達的天然氣利用率。這都是真的。當我們談到投資者日的目標時，這給了我們信心，到 2026 年產量達到 1150 萬噸，如果我們在特立尼達獲得全部天然氣分配，產量甚至達到 1200 萬噸。

But maybe I'll pass over to Trevor Williams to talk about that bridge and -- last year to this year and then our 2026 target.

但也許我會讓特雷弗威廉斯 (Trevor Williams) 來談談那座橋樑——從去年到今年，然後是我們的 2026 年目標。

Sounds good. Thanks, Richard. And I'll just build maybe on a few comments that Ken had made. So as we look to our 2026 glide path, and it really continues to reflect -- or focus in really 3 key areas. First one, obviously, being improved reliability.

聽起來不錯。謝謝，理查。我只是想根據肯所作的一些評論進行補充。因此，當我們展望 2026 年的下滑路徑時，它確實會繼續反映——或者說真正關注 3 個關鍵領域。首先，顯然是提高可靠性。

And just to call out a recent example is really if you look at our Borger facility, we're really seeing a step change in terms of its performance, 2023 over 2024. And over the last 12 months, in particular, based on the team that -- the work that the team has done to the site, along with our central reliability team. Second, on top of that is really, as Ken mentioned, is really completion of a number of debottlenecks that we have across our fleet. We completed a number last year, both in terms of at our Carseland facility, our Redwater facility in particular and also at Geismar. And then we also have coming up in 2026, a few other ones that will come online, both at our Carseland facility and some increased capacity at Augusta as well.

舉一個最近的例子，如果你看看我們的 Borger 工廠，我們確實看到它的性能發生了顯著變化，2023 年比 2024 年有了很大變化。特別是在過去的 12 個月中，基於團隊以及我們的中央可靠性團隊對站點所做的工作。其次，正如肯所提到的那樣，最重要的是，我們確實解決了整個船隊的許多瓶頸問題。去年，我們完成了許多工作，包括在我們的 Carseland 工廠、特別是我們的 Redwater 工廠以及 Geismar 工廠。我們還將在 2026 年推出其他一些項目，包括在我們的 Carseland 工廠和奧古斯塔的一些產能增加的項目。

And then finally, as Ken mentioned, it really comes down to some of the work that we've been doing at Trinidad where we've seen also a really great improvement in terms of gas utilization, making sure that every molecule of gas that's made available to the downstreamers ourselves is that we take advantage of that. And again, if you look at 2023 over 2024, we saw about a 10% increase. We run at about 95% gas utilization in 2024. And we see an opportunity to bring that up to about 98% in 2020 -- over 2025 and 2026. And then lastly, as Ken said, with the work that the Trinidad government has been doing, we continue to be optimistic that we'll hopefully start to see increased volumes towards the tail end of 2026.

最後，正如肯所提到的，這實際上歸結於我們在特立尼達所做的一些工作，我們在天然氣利用方面也看到了很大的進步，確保我們自己向下游企業提供的每一種氣體分子都能得到利用。再說一次，如果你將 2023 年與 2024 年進行比較，我們會發現成長了約 10%。到 2024 年，我們的天然氣利用率將達到 95% 左右。我們認為有機會在 2020 年、2025 年和 2026 年將這一比例提高到 98% 左右。最後，正如肯所說，透過特立尼達政府所做的工作，我們繼續樂觀地認為，到 2026 年底，產量有望開始增加。

Jeffrey Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeffrey Zekauskas。

I was looking at your fact books and the number of selling locations for retail, if I read the data correctly, has been going down by about 4% a year for the last few years. Can you comment on that? Why is the number of selling locations going down? Is it that farmers have more access to different online sources? And what's your idea about what the growth rate of your selling locations should be over time?

我看了你們的資料書，如果我沒看錯的話，零售店的數量在過去幾年裡每年下降約 4%。您能對此發表評論嗎？為什麼銷售點數量會減少？農民是否能夠更多地接觸不同的線上資源？您認為您的銷售點的成長率應該是多少？

And then secondly, can you just comment on how you see the crop chemical market in the United States for 2025. Do you think you'll make more than you did last year or less? Or how do things look?

其次，您能否評論一下您如何看待 2025 年美國農作物化學品市場。您認為今年賺的錢會比去年多還是少？或者事情看起來怎麼樣？

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. With respect to selling locations, we think less about total quantum of selling locations more about the productivity of each of those locations. And the reality is that agriculture is changing. We've seen a lot of unformed consolidation and that the complexion of North American agriculture requires modern and higher throughput facilities.

是的。謝謝，傑夫。對於銷售地點，我們較少考慮銷售地點的總量，而更多地考慮每個地點的生產力。而現實情況是農業正在改變。我們看到了許多未成形的整合，北美農業的狀況需要現代化和更高吞吐量的設施。

And so a key pillar of our growth platform in our retail network, our downstream network is what we call our network optimization, that is looking at what might be higher sustaining CapEx, lower productivity storefronts and consolidating what might be 3 or 4 of them in a region into one new modern throughput safer facility that can still provide all those service levels to the grower. That would be the reason for the change. And in fact, that's an improvement to our business. It's not that fewer selling locations means fewer service levels or less organic growth. It's actually the opposite of that.

因此，我們零售網路、下游網路成長平台的一個關鍵支柱就是我們所說的網路優化，即尋找維持資本支出較高、生產力較低的店面，並將一個地區可能有 3 或 4 個這樣的店面整合成一個新的、現代化的、吞吐量更安全的設施，同時仍然可以為種植者提供所有這些服務水平。這就是改變的原因。事實上，這對我們的業務來說是一種改進。這並不意味著銷售地點減少意味著服務水準降低或有機成長減少。事實恰恰相反。

So that is what you would see happening there. And indeed, a key component of our tuck-in acquisition strategy is where we look at the opportunities to add to the network in some of these key regions. And as we do that, we look at the opportunities for network optimization and again, serving our growers and improve service levels. And with respect to crop protection, I'll pass that one over to Jeff Tarsi.

這就是你所看到的在那裡發生的事情。事實上，我們的內部收購策略的關鍵組成部分就是尋找機會擴大這些關鍵地區的網路。在這樣做的同時，我們尋找網路優化的機會，再次為我們的種植者提供服務並提高服務水準。關於作物保護，我將把這個問題交給 Jeff Tarsi。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. And I agree with everything you said on the rationalization of our network. We do -- we work on that each and every year. We're having to service larger growers today and their needs are different, and we're servicing out of fewer but more efficient branches in order to meet the demand of those growers as they consolidate and get larger in size as well.

是的。謝謝，肯。我同意您關於我們網絡合理化所說的一切。我們確實——我們每年都在致力於此。如今，我們必須為更大的種植者提供服務，他們的需求也有所不同，而且，隨著這些種植者不斷整合，規模不斷擴大，我們透過更少但更有效率的分支機構提供服務，以滿足他們的需求。

From a crop protection standpoint, we built some growth into our top line on crop protection for '25 and that's looking to claw back at some business that we think we missed last year in May due to wet cool weather in the growing season. At the midpoint of our guidance range, we've -- as Mark spoke to earlier, we penciled in historical crop protection margins of the 2025 year. We think we will -- there is some generic pressure out there. So we think that upfront margins could get some pressure there. But again, and we've made significant improvements in our margins in the Brazilian market as well.

從作物保護的角度來看，我們在 25 年的作物保護業務中實現了一定的增長，我們希望能夠挽回一些我們認為去年 5 月因生長季節潮濕寒冷的天氣而錯失的業務。在我們的指導範圍的中點，正如馬克之前所說的那樣，我們預計了 2025 年的歷史作物保護利潤率。我們認為我們會的——存在一些普遍的壓力。因此我們認為前期利潤率可能會面臨一些壓力。但同樣，我們在巴西市場的利潤率也取得了顯著提高。

And we're sitting in a really good position from an inventory standpoint on crop protection, we've driven our inventory down in all of our major markets on crop protection on a year-over-year basis. So we feel good about where we're sitting for the spring, and the opportunity that we might have in front of us.

從作物保護庫存的角度來看，我們處於非常有利的地位，我們在所有主要市場的作物保護庫存都比去年同期下降。因此，我們對春季所處的位置以及我們可能面臨的機會感到滿意。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

It's actually Andrew on for Chris. So looking sort of towards capital allocation, can you speak to what you're seeing out there in the M&A environment and your appetite to add smaller global tuck-ins, and how should we think about that versus share buybacks, dividends, et cetera?

實際上是安德魯代替了克里斯。那麼，從資本配置的角度來看，您能否談談您在併購環境中看到的情況以及您對增加較小規模全球收購的興趣，以及我們應該如何看待這一點與股票回購、股息等？

Yes. Thanks, Andrew, for the question. So you will have seen it. We just increased our dividend, and that's increased on a per share basis, 36% since the company was formed. And we use the word stable and growing, and we can kind of think of it in that $1 billion range as we continue to fund the dividend.

是的。謝謝安德魯提出這個問題。所以你一定已經看到了。我們剛剛增加了股息，自公司成立以來，每股股息增加了 36%。我們使用「穩定」和「成長」這兩個詞，我們可以將其想像為 10 億美元的範圍，因為我們將繼續為股息提供資金。

We can talk about sources and uses after that. But to your point, free cash flow and how we might look to utilize that, certainly, we're watching the tuck-in opportunity pipeline. But maybe I'll pass over to Mark to talk more about that.

之後我們可以討論來源和用途。但就你的觀點而言，自由現金流以及我們如何利用它，當然，我們正在關注機會管道。但也許我會讓馬克來進一步談論這個問題。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. And as Ken said, Andrew, maybe I'll just step back for a second. I think it's worth mentioning again just the intense focus we have on structurally growing sources of cash in the company. So the single biggest driver we have of that is continuing to grow cash flow from operations by progressing towards our 2026 targets.

是的。謝謝，肯。正如肯所說，安德魯，也許我只是暫時退一步。我認為值得再次提及的是，我們高度重視公司現金來源的結構性成長。因此，我們最大的驅動力是透過向 2026 年目標邁進來繼續增加營運現金流。

As we've said today, we made good progress on all fronts in 2024. We expect to continue moving forward in 2025. And alongside that, progressing our review and monetization of noncore assets, and that's also something we plan to continue looking out in 2025 and being disciplined with working capital management and driving efficiency in our cash conversion ratio. So growing sources of cash over time is the first objective. And then on your question about how we're utilizing our deploying that cash, maybe just to walk through that capital allocation stack as we see it for 2025.

正如我們今天所說，2024年我們在各方面都取得了良好進展。我們預計在 2025 年將繼續前進。同時，我們將繼續審查和貨幣化非核心資產，這也是我們計劃在 2025 年繼續關注的事情，嚴格營運資本管理，提高現金轉換率的效率。因此，隨著時間的推移增加現金來源是首要目標。然後，關於你提到的我們如何利用和部署這些現金的問題，也許我們只是想介紹一下 2025 年的資本配置。

We expect to deploy total capital of about $2 billion to $2.1 billion, which we've optimized lower once again this year. This is comprised of about $1.6 billion in sustaining capital, and we expect about $400 million to $500 million in growth capital, and that's that narrowed and focused set of priorities that Ken and I both spoke to in our prepared remarks. Beyond that, we expect to have about $0.5 billion in capital leases. And as Ken mentioned, about $1 billion towards that stable and growing dividend per share, which for shareholders today provides just over a 4% return. So when you take all of those things into account, that's about $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion in total uses.

我們預計部署的總資本約為 20 億美元至 21 億美元，今年我們再次將這一數字進行了優化。這其中包括約 16 億美元的維持資本，我們預計成長資本約為 4 億至 5 億美元，這就是我和肯在準備好的發言中談到的縮小和集中的優先事項。除此之外，我們預計資本租賃總額約為 5 億美元。正如肯所提到的那樣，每股約 10 億美元用於穩定且不斷增長的股息，這對今天的股東來說提供了略高於 4% 的回報。因此，如果將所有這些因素都考慮進去，總使用金額約為 35 億至 36 億美元。

And as Ken highlighted, really every dollar beyond that, we're looking at effectively 2 things. Bolt-on acquisitions, primarily in the U.S., but continue to look in Australia. And we think in this environment, we are going to see more of those opportunities in the U.S. come our way, as well as share repurchases. And you saw it since the second half of the year through today, we've been in the market on a ratable basis.

正如肯所強調的，實際上，除了這個之外，我們實際上在考慮兩件事。附加收購，主要在美國進行，但繼續關注澳洲。我們認為，在這種環境下，我們將會看到美國出現更多這樣的機會以及股票回購。如您所見，從今年下半年到今天，我們一直按比例進入市場。

We feel that's an attractive use of capital today on the share repurchase front that competes quite attractively with other alternatives. We intend in 2025 for that to be a continued meaningful part of our return of capital and capital deployment framework. So we expect to be in the market going forward on a ratable basis.

我們認為，這是目前股票回購方面一種頗具吸引力的資本使用方式，與其他替代方案相比具有相當強的競爭力。我們希望在 2025 年，這將成為我們資本回報和資本部署框架中持續有意義的一部分。因此，我們期望未來能夠以比例的方式進入市場。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

瑞穗的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯。

Just one quick one on potash. Your volume guidance is essentially flat. Price, who knows, it will do what it does. Can you talk about what your cost on a per tonne basis? Should we expect any improvement there?

關於鉀肥，我只想簡單說一下。您的交易量指引基本持平。價格，誰知道呢，它會做它該做的事。您能談談每噸的成本是多少嗎？我們應該期待那裡有所改善嗎？

Or should it be similar to what we saw in 2024?

或應該與我們在 2024 年看到的類似？

Yes. Thanks, Edlain. Yes, so with respect to how we're positioning ourselves among the 71 million to 75 million tonnes that we talked about for global shipments for 2025. It really is us expanding our volumes incrementally as we've done last year for the last number of years and maintenance and market share at about that sort of 19.5%. That's how we're planning our movements.

是的。謝謝，埃德萊恩。是的，至於我們如何將自己定位在我們所談論的 2025 年全球出貨量 7,100 萬至 7,500 萬噸之間。正如我們去年在過去幾年所做的那樣，我們確實在逐步擴大我們的銷量，維護和市場份額約為 19.5%。這就是我們計劃行動的方式。

And so what that volume and volume range means for our cost of production. We've talked about kind of that $60 a tonne is something that we point to. And this is something we pointed to for some time, in other words, we have been fighting back inflation and the biggest component of that has been and will be automating our mining machines as we improve productivity as we improve asset utilization and that contributes, obviously, to fighting inflationary pressures, which are very real, in service of that $60 a tonne.

那麼這個數量和數量範圍對我們的生產成本意味著什麼。我們已經討論過，每噸 60 美元是我們所指的價格。這是我們一段時間以來一直強調的一點，換句話說，我們一直在對抗通貨膨脹，其中最大的組成部分一直是並且將繼續是實現採礦機器的自動化，因為我們提高了生產率，提高了資產利用率，這顯然有助於對抗通脹壓力，而通脹壓力是真實存在的，為了實現每噸 60 美元的目標。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

瑞銀的盧卡斯·博蒙特。

Yes. So I just want to get back to nitrogen. So I mean prior to the war, the top of the cost curve there was about 40% below where the sort of European gas outlook is for this year. So now with sort of talk of things to be normalizing there. Could you walk us through your range of outcomes for how you see the cost curve kind of responding if we have a revolution there to the war in Europe?

是的。所以我只想回到氮氣。所以我的意思是，戰前那裡的成本曲線頂端比今年歐洲天然氣的前景低約 40%。現在我們正在談論那裡的事情是否正常化。您能否向我們介紹一下，如果歐洲發生革命，您認為成本曲線將如何應對歐洲戰爭？

Great. I will pass that over to Jason Newton, our Chief Economist, and talk about exactly the moving parts there.

偉大的。我將把這個問題交給我們的首席經濟學家傑森·牛頓 (Jason Newton)，並詳細討論其中的具體細節。

Lucas. Yes, you're right that we have seen an increase in the cost curve, particularly if we look at ammonia and UAN, but also urea, just driven by the increase in the price of gas in Europe. And as Ken mentioned, we've seen that pretty volatile of late. I think as high as $18 per MMBtu last week. It's down in the $15 per MMBtu range today.

盧卡斯。是的，您說得對，我們看到成本曲線有所上升，特別是如果我們看一下氨和 UAN，還有尿素，這只是受到歐洲天然氣價格上漲的推動。正如肯所提到的，我們最近發現這種情況相當不穩定。我認為上週價格高達每百萬英熱單位 18 美元。如今價格已降至每百萬英熱單位約 15 美元。

And that curve is pretty flat as we look throughout the year. We know that as we look through the end of 2025, storage levels today are down significantly, and it's the first time since the world began that there's been a normal winter in Europe with cold weather driving down storage levels. And those will -- by regulation need to be rebuilt. And so that's driving the outlook for gas costs today. And so as we look through the end of the year, regardless of what happens with respect to sanctions, that gas supply in Europe is likely to be tight.

從全年來看，這條曲線相當平坦。我們知道，展望2025年底，今天的儲存水準將大幅下降，這是自世界開始以來歐洲第一次經歷正常的冬季，寒冷的天氣導致儲存水準下降。根據規定，這些都需要重建。這就是影響當今天然氣成本前景的原因。因此，展望年底，無論制裁情況如何，歐洲的天然氣供應都可能緊張。

That said, there's potential for volatility in that price. In any scenario, we'd expect that the cost curve will remain above where it was prior to the war beginning just given the reliance on imported LNG into Europe. I think the other important point is that we've seen already significant permanent closures of ammonia capacity in Europe. It continues to be over 20% of the production shut down today due to high natural gas prices. And we wouldn't expect that to come on stream as we go through the year.

也就是說，該價格有可能出現波動。無論如何，考慮到歐洲對進口液化天然氣的依賴，我們預計成本曲線將保持在戰爭開始前的水平之上。我認為另一個重要點是，我們已經看到歐洲大量氨產能永久關閉。由於天然氣價格高企，目前仍有超過 20% 的產量處於停產狀態。我們並不期望這種情況會在一年後出現。

And the other factor to watch as we go forward is just the limited amount of new supply coming on stream, particularly of urea. And so we'd expect the supply-demand balance to tighten over the medium term, just given continued demand growth exceeding capacity additions.

我們未來需要關注的另一個因素是新供應量有限，尤其是尿素。因此，我們預計，由於需求成長持續超過產能增加，中期內供需平衡將會收緊。

Rahi Parikh, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Rahi Parikh。

Awesome. You all touched on some dynamics in Brazil, but can you give a deep dive on progress in destocking at the distributor, retail and farmer level? And also on the farmer credit environment, are you lending more? Are you becoming more particular on who you sell to down there, similar to one of your competitors?

驚人的。你們都談到了巴西的一些動態，但您能否深入介紹一下經銷商、零售商和農民層面去庫存的進展？另外，在農民信貸環境方面，你們的貸款增加了嗎？您是否像您的競爭對手一樣，對銷售對象更加挑剔？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Rahi. I'll pass that over to Jeff Tarsi to talk about what we're actually seeing on the ground.

是的。謝謝你的提問，拉希。我將把這個問題交給傑夫·塔西 (Jeff Tarsi) 來談談我們在實地看到的情況。

Yes. Look, we -- and I'll tell you from our perspective within our business operations there, we've had a very clear objective to drive our inventory down in that Brazilian market. And actually, year-over-year basis, we've driven our inventory down 46%, which puts us in a really good position. It takes a lot of risk out of our business from that standpoint. I would think that at the farm gate, there has been destocking over the last 2 years in that market, and it's become more and more of a just-in-time marketplace in Brazil because of some of the events we've seen over the last 2 to 3 years.

是的。你看，從我們在那裡的業務運作的角度來說，我們有一個非常明確的目標，那就是降低巴西市場的庫存。實際上，與去年同期相比，我們的庫存下降了 46%，這使我們處於非常有利的地位。從這個角度來看，它使我們的業務避免了許多風險。我認為，在過去的兩年裡，巴西的農場市場一直在減少庫存，而且由於過去兩三年來我們看到的一些事件，巴西的市場越來越像一個即時市場。

And from a credit side of things, we're always gauging our credit as intensely as we possibly can. Brazil would be no exception to us in that marketplace, and we've got a -- we've stood up a very strong credit team there, and we continue to analyze that and make really good decisions based on the P&L opportunities of the customer.

從信用角度來看，我們總是盡可能嚴格地衡量我們的信用。巴西市場對我們來說也不例外，我們在那裡建立了一支非常強大的信貸團隊，我們會繼續分析這一點，並根據客戶的損益機會做出真正好的決策。

Aron Ceccarelli, Berenberg.

阿隆‧切卡雷利 (Aron Ceccarelli)，貝倫貝格 (Berenberg)。

I think we come from 2 years of volumes above long-term trend for potash. And this year, we have very supportive dynamics for ag in general after the recent rally in corn prices. Just wondering, maybe can you talk a little bit about the lower end of the guidance for global potash shipments, where you mentioned reduced availability. But I would like to understand a little bit what does it mean?

我認為，我們過去兩年的鉀肥產量高於長期趨勢。今年，在近期玉米價格上漲之後，農業整體呈現出非常有利的勢頭。只是想知道，也許您能談談全球鉀肥出貨量指引的下限，您提到了供應量減少。但我想稍微了解一下這是什麼意思？

Yes. Thank you for the question, Aron. And so yes, it's absolutely true that we've seen 2 years of growth in potash demand, and we're expecting a little bit more this year and really is just that return to trend level demand that we talk about from sort of pre-war levels and 2.5% average annual growth rates as the world seeks to grow more food.

是的。謝謝你的提問，阿隆。是的，我們確實已經看到鉀肥需求連續兩年增長，我們預計今年的需求還會略有增長，實際上就是回歸到我們所說的戰前水平的趨勢水平需求，隨著世界尋求種植更多的糧食，年平均增長率達到 2.5%。

When we talk about the guidance range for this year, at the top end, we talked about strong egg fundamentals, a good spring planting season in North America and some of the other strength that we talked about in Southeast Asia in record fertilizer consumption in Brazil last year and looking for that to increase again this year. So strong demand fundamentals, the low end of that range is really -- it is a supply-side discussion.

當我們談論今年的指導範圍時，在最高端，我們談到了強勁的雞蛋基本面、北美良好的春季種植季節以及東南亞的一些其他優勢，例如去年巴西的化肥消費量創下了歷史新高，並預計今年化肥消費量將再次增加。因此，強勁的需求基本面，範圍的低端實際上——這是一個供應方面的討論。

And that is, again, we've seen some significant announcements this year of maintenance and even operational challenges in some of those key producing regions. So that in the limitation this year, we believe, in the face of strong demand would be -- on the low end, would be availability of supply.

也就是說，我們今年再次看到一些重要公告，顯示一些主要產區面臨維護甚至營運挑戰。因此，我們認為，今年的限制是，面對強勁的需求，供應量將處於低端​​。

Michael Tupholme, TD Cowen.

邁克爾·圖普霍姆 (Michael Tupholme)，TD Cowen。

Earlier in the call, you talked about tariffs. In your 2025 potash sales volume guidance, you noted that the guidance range tends to account for some uncertainty on the tariff front. So the question is, I'm wondering if you can expand on that and speak to what sort of tariff-related assumptions you've made in coming up with your own potash volume guidance for 2025.

在早些時候的通話中，您談到了關稅問題。在您的 2025 年鉀肥銷售量指引中，您指出指導範圍往往會考慮到關稅方面的一些不確定性。所以問題是，我想知道您是否可以詳細說明這一點，並談談您在製定 2025 年鉀肥產量指導時做出了哪些與關稅相關的假設。

Yes, you bet, Mike. It really is a question of timing and maybe buyer behavior, but I'll pass it over to Mark to talk about our assumptions there.

是的，沒錯，麥克。這確實是一個時間問題，也許是買家行為的問題，但我會把它交給馬克來談談我們的假設。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. I think Ken characterized the high and low ends of the global shipments range really well during the last question. So maybe just stick to what you've asked about on tariffs. Really, if you look at our guidance range, 13.6 million to 14.4 million tonnes.

是的。謝謝，肯。我認為 Ken 在最後一個問題中很好地描述了全球出貨量範圍的高端和低端。所以也許只需堅持你所詢問的有關關稅的問題。確實，如果你看一下我們的指導範圍，那就是 1360 萬噸到 1440 萬噸。

At that midpoint of 14 million tonnes, we assume relatively limited impact from potential tariffs and really no material supply chain disruptions to speak of. So that would generally characterize the midpoint of our guidance. If you look to the upper end of our guidance, we would assume no impact from tariffs and really no supply chain disruptions.

在 1400 萬噸的中間值下，我們假設潛在關稅的影響相對有限，並且實際上不會出現任何重大的供應鏈中斷。因此，這通常代表了我們指導的中點。如果您看我們指導的上限，我們會認為不會受到關稅的影響，也不會發生供應鏈中斷。

On the lower end is really where the tariffs question comes into play, and it's really a lot, as Ken said, it's really the potential timing impacts that any tariffs would have on demand in North America, and we do see that more as a timing-related factor, and that would sort of characterize how we're thinking about that 13.6 million tonnes on the lower end of our guidance.

在下限方面，關稅問題確實發揮了作用，正如肯所說，這確實是一個很大的問題，任何關稅都會對北美的需求產生潛在的時間影響，我們確實認為這更多地是一個與時間相關的因素，這在某種程度上描述了我們如何看待指導下限 1,360 萬噸。

Thank you. As there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Jeff Holzman for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給傑夫·霍爾茲曼，請他作結束語。請繼續。

Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available if you have follow-up questions. Have a great day.

感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。