Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2024 First Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Holzman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁傑夫霍爾茲曼 (Jeff Holzman)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call.

謝謝你，接線生。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。

As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information.

當我們進行本次電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計劃和前景所做的各種聲明都包含前瞻性資訊。在做出這些結論和預測時應用了某些假設。因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性資訊中包含的結果有重大差異。

Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form filed with Canadian and U.S. Securities Commissions.

有關這些因素和假設的更多資訊包含在我們向股東提交的季度報告以及我們最近的年度報告、MD&A 以及向加拿大和美國證券委員會提交的年度資訊表中。

I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO; and our CFO, Pedro Farah, for opening comments, before we take your questions.

我現在將把電話轉給 Nutrien 總裁兼執行長 Ken Seitz；在我們回答您的問題之前，我們的財務長佩德羅·法拉赫 (Pedro Farah) 發表了開場評論。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to review our first quarter 2024 results and the outlook for our business. Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion in the first quarter, supported by improved crop input margins, increased fertilizer production, higher sales volumes and lower operating costs.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們回顧我們 2024 年第一季的業績和業務前景。在農作物投入利潤提高、化肥產量增加、銷售增加和營運成本降低的支持下，Nutrien 在第一季調整後 EBITDA 達到 11 億美元。

Nutrien Ag Solutions adjusted EBITDA of $77 million was well above the prior year, driven by strong grower demand and a normalization of margins in North America. Retail crop nutrient sales volumes were up 17%, and per tonne margins increased by more than 15% compared to the compressed levels in the first quarter of 2023.

在北美種植者需求強勁和利潤正常化的推動下，Nutrien Ag Solutions 調整後 EBITDA 為 7,700 萬美元，遠高於去年。與 2023 年第一季壓縮後的水平相比，農作物肥料零售量增加了 17%，每噸利潤增加了 15% 以上。

We continue to grow our proprietary crop nutritional and biostimulant gross margins through differentiated product offerings and expanded manufacturing capacity. These high-value products enhance margins for Nutrien and improve quality and environmental performance for our growers.

我們透過提供差異化產品和擴大生產能力，繼續提高專有作物營養和生物刺激劑的毛利率。這些高價值產品提高了 Nutrien 的利潤，並改善了我們種植者的品質和環境績效。

Gross margin for crop protection products increased by 12% in the first quarter as margins in North America recovered to normalized levels. We continued to see pressure on crop protection margins in Brazil due to the persistence of high inventory levels in the channel. We reduced our crop protection inventory in Brazil by approximately $150 million over the past 12 months, and we'll continue to tightly manage purchases as the market stabilizes.

隨著北美地區的利潤率恢復至正常水平，第一季作物保護產品的毛利率增加了 12%。由於通路庫存水準持續高企，我們持續看到巴西作物保護利潤率面臨壓力。過去 12 個月，我們在巴西的植保庫存減少了約 1.5 億美元，隨著市場穩定，我們將繼續嚴格管理採購。

Our Australian retail business delivered strong results and was a significant contributor to our first quarter retail earnings, highlighting what are the advantages of serving growers in diverse geographies.

我們的澳洲零售業務取得了強勁的業績，是我們第一季零售收入的重要貢獻者，凸顯了為不同地區的種植者提供服務的優勢。

First quarter earnings for potash, nitrogen and phosphate were down from the prior year due to lower benchmark prices. However, our results reflect progress on a number of operational initiatives that contributed to higher operating rates, increased sales volumes and lower costs. In potash, we increased production by 15% year-over-year and lowered our controllable cash cost of production to $56 per tonne.

由於基準價格下降，鉀肥、氮肥和磷肥第一季收益較上年同期下降。然而，我們的結果反映了許多營運措施的進展，這些措施有助於提高營運率、增加銷售量和降低成本。在鉀肥方面，我們的產量年增了 15%，並將可控現金生產成本降低至每噸 56 美元。

We continue to advance automated mining initiatives that are providing safety and productivity benefits for our operations.

我們繼續推進自動化採礦計劃，為我們的營運提供安全性和生產力優勢。

North American potash sales volumes increased by more than 50% compared to the prior year supported by low channel inventories and more normal buying behaviors. We achieved this volume growth by flexing our granular potash production capability and leveraging our extensive North American distribution network.

在渠道庫存較低和購買行為更正常的支撐下，北美鉀肥銷量比上年增長了 50% 以上。我們透過發揮粒狀鉀肥生產能力並利用我們廣泛的北美分銷網絡實現了產量的增長。

Offshore potash sales volumes were up 18% in the first quarter, driven by strong demand in key international markets and improved supply chain performance.

在主要國際市場強勁需求和供應鏈績效改善的推動下，第一季海上鉀肥銷售成長了 18%。

We increased nitrogen and phosphate production despite some weather-related outages, leading to higher sales volumes compared to the prior year. We adjusted our nitrogen production mix to optimize margins, resulting in increased downstream sales of urea and nitrogen solutions in the quarter.

儘管出現了一些與天氣有關的停產，但我們還是增加了氮肥和磷酸鹽的產量，導致銷量比前一年增加。我們調整了氮氣生產結構以優化利潤率，導致本季尿素和氮氣解決方案的下游銷售增加。

To summarize, we are encouraged by the strength of demand and continued market stabilization that we saw in the first quarter. Our results demonstrated the capabilities of our flexible, low-cost production assets and downstream distribution network to efficiently supply crop inputs to growers around the world.

總而言之，我們對第一季的需求強勁和市場持續穩定感到鼓舞。我們的結果證明了我們靈活、低成本的生產資產和下游分銷網絡能夠有效地向世界各地的種植者提供農作物投入品。

Now turning to the market outlook for the remainder of 2024. U.S. corn and soybean planting has progressed in line with historic average levels and fertilizer application rates have been strong. Wet weather has recently delayed fieldwork in some parts of the Corn Belt. And combined with production concerns in other key global growing regions has provided support for crop prices.

現在轉向 2024 年剩餘時間的市場前景。最近，潮濕的天氣推遲了玉米種植帶部分地區的實地工作。加上全球其他主要種植地區的生產擔憂，為農作物價格提供了支撐。

In Brazil, crop margins for 2023 planted crop were compressed, which impacted grower sentiment. Prospective soybean margins based on 2024 prices and projected input costs are currently well above 2023 levels, which is anticipated to support Brazilian planted acreage and crop input demand in the second half.

在巴西，2023 年種植作物的利潤率受到壓縮，影響了種植者的情緒。基於 2024 年價格和預計投入成本的預期大豆利潤率目前遠高於 2023 年水平，預計這將支撐巴西下半年的種植面積和作物投入需求。

Global potash supply and demand is relatively balanced to begin 2024, and we maintained our full year global potash shipment forecast of 68 million to 71 million tonnes. North American demand has been strong, and we believe distributors will attempt to end the spring season with limited inventory, which would support healthy engagement in the second half.

2024年開始，全球鉀肥供需相對平衡，我們維持全年全球鉀肥出貨量6,800萬噸至7,100萬噸的預測。北美需求一直強勁，我們相信經銷商將嘗試以有限的庫存結束春季銷售季，這將支持下半年的健康參與。

Brazilian potash demand has strengthened in the second quarter, and prices have increased by approximately $30 per tonne over the past 3 months. We have seen good movement to Southeast Asian markets to start the year supported by lower inventory levels and favorable economics for key crops such as palm oil and rice. Standard-grade potash prices in this region have recently softened due to a seasonal lull ahead of anticipated contract settlements.

第二季巴西鉀肥需求增強，過去 3 個月價格每噸上漲約 30 美元。我們看到，在庫存水準較低以及棕櫚油和大米等主要作物經濟有利的支撐下，東南亞市場年初走勢良好。由於預期合約結算前的季節性平靜，該地區的標準級鉀肥價格最近走軟。

In China, there has been a step change in potash consumption, reflecting strong affordability and as part of a long-term strategy to increase domestic food production. China's potash consumption increased by around 2 million tonnes in 2023 to over 17 million tonnes. At the same time, China's domestic potash production declined by around 1 million tonnes.

在中國，鉀肥消費量發生了階段性變化，反映出強勁的承受能力，也是增加國內糧食產量的長期策略的一部分。 2023年，中國鉀肥消費量增加約200萬噸，達到1,700萬噸以上。同時，中國國內鉀肥產量下降約100萬噸。

We believe these factors are behind the push to maintain higher port inventories and an increase in strategic reserves.

我們認為，這些因素是推動港口庫存保持較高、策略儲備增加的原因。

Global nitrogen markets have fluctuated in 2024, driven by seasonal buying patterns, production outages and uncertainty over Chinese urea export restrictions and India's import requirements.

受季節性購買模式、生產中斷以及中國尿素出口限制和印度進口要求的不確定性的推動，2024 年全球氮肥市場出現波動。

The U.S. nitrogen supply and demand balance remains relatively tight, in particular for ammonia and UAN, with net nitrogen imports down 21% on a fertilizer year basis compared to the historical average.

美國氮肥供需平衡仍然相對緊張，尤其是氨和尿氮，與歷史平均值相比，以化肥年計算氮肥淨進口量下降了 21%。

We expect in-line nitrogen prices to remain firm through the spring season and then follow the typical seasonal reset for summer fill.

我們預計，整個春季氮肥價格將保持堅挺，然後在夏季補水時遵循典型的季節性重置。

North American gas prices are advantaged compared to Europe and Asia and based on the forward curve, we anticipate this favorable position to continue on a multiyear basis.

與歐洲和亞洲相比，北美天然氣價格具有優勢，根據遠期曲線，我們預計這種有利地位將持續多年。

I will now turn it over to Pedro to provide more detail on our guidance assumptions and capital allocation plans for 2024.

我現在將其轉交給 Pedro，以提供有關我們 2024 年指導假設和資本配置計劃的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Ken. As highlighted in our news release, we have maintained our 2024 retail earnings and fertilizer sales volume guidance ranges as market conditions and operational performance have progressed in line with our previous expectations.

謝謝，肯。正如我們在新聞稿中所強調的那樣，由於市場狀況和營運績效的進展符合我們先前的預期，我們維持了 2024 年零售收益和化肥銷售指導範圍。

For retail, our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance is unchanged at $1.65 billion to $1.85 billion. The midpoint of this range represents an increase of approximately $300 million compared to 2023. Our outlook includes an expectation for increased crop nutrient sales volumes and margins for our North American retail business in the first half and improved crop input margins in Brazil during the second half of the year.

對於零售業，我們全年調整後 EBITDA 指引維持在 16.5 億美元至 18.5 億美元不變。該範圍的中點表示與 2023 年相比增加了約 3 億美元。的。

In April, we initiated a process to divest our retail assets in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay. This region accounts for approximately 3% of our global retail sales and around 2% of adjusted EBITDA. The decision reflects our focus on core geographies and actions that enhance the quality of our earnings and cash flow.

四月份，我們啟動了剝離阿根廷、智利和烏拉圭零售資產的程序。該地區約占我們全球零售額的 3%，約佔調整後 EBITDA 的 2%。這項決定反映了我們對核心地區和提高獲利和現金流品質的行動的關注。

Our 2024 retail guidance reflects a full year of earnings from these assets as we currently do not have a time line for completion of the divestiture. We maintained our annual potash sales volume guidance range of 13 million to 13.8 million tonnes and expect a more even split between first and second half compared to 2023.

我們的 2024 年零售指引反映了這些資產的全年收益，因為我們目前沒有完成剝離的時間表。我們維持鉀肥年度銷售指引範圍為 1,300 萬噸至 1,380 萬噸，並預計上半年和下半年的銷售比例將比 2023 年更加均勻。

We have taken proactive measures ahead of potential Canadian rail import strikes, but it bears a labor disruption, we could see an impact on second quarter sales volumes.

我們在加拿大鐵路進口可能發生罷工之前採取了積極措施，但這會造成勞動力中斷，我們可能會看到對第二季度銷售的影響。

Our nitrogen sales volumes guidance remains in the range of 10.6 million to 11.2 million tonnes. At the midpoint, this represents an increase of approximately 500,000 tonnes for the last year with the majority of this growth planned for upgrade prices such as urea and nitrogen solutions.

我們的氮氣銷量指引仍保持在 1,060 萬噸至 1,120 萬噸範圍內。從中間值來看，去年產量增加了約 50 萬噸，其中大部分成長計畫用於升級尿素和氮解決方案等價格。

We benefited from lower North American natural gas in the first quarter as we are likely hedged coming into the year. With the softening in prices during the first quarter, we saw an opportunity to handle a portion of our North American natural gas requirements for the remainder of 2024.

我們受益於第一季北美天然氣價格的下跌，因為我們可能會在今年進行對沖。隨著第一季價格走軟，我們看到了在 2024 年剩餘時間內滿足部分北美天然氣需求的機會。

Total planned capital expenditures of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion is projected to be down $400 million compared to 2023. This total includes investing capital initiatives that drive organic growth in retail and operational improvements in potash and nitrogen.

計畫資本支出總額為 22 億至 23 億美元，預計比 2023 年減少 4 億美元。

The focus in retail is to further expand our proprietary products portfolio, drive retail network optimization and enhance our digital capabilities.

零售業務的重點是進一步擴大我們的專有產品組合，推動零售網路優化並增強我們的數位化能力。

In addition, we will continue to evaluate tuck-in acquisition opportunities in North America and Australia. The majority of planned investment capital in our front-lines operations are related to mine automation projects in potash and the completion of low-cost brownfield expansions in nitrogen. These investments support the achievement of our mid-cycle sales volume growth scenario and improve the efficiency of our operations.

此外，我們將繼續評估北美和澳洲的收購機會。我們一線業務的大部分計劃投資資金與鉀肥礦山自動化項目和氮肥低成本棕地擴建項目相關。這些投資支持我們實現中期銷售成長方案並提高我們的營運效率。

Back to you, Ken.

回到你身邊，肯。

Thanks, Pedro. To reiterate, we continue to see strong demand for crop inputs and increased market stability. We delivered solid operational performance in the first quarter and are maintaining our full year retail earnings and fertilizer sales volume guidance ranges.

謝謝，佩德羅。重申一下，我們繼續看到對農作物投入的強勁需求和市場穩定性的增強。我們在第一季實現了穩健的營運業績，並維持了全年零售收入和化肥銷售指導範圍。

Our focus remains on strategic initiatives that enhance our ability to serve growers in our core markets, maintain the low-cost position and reliability of our assets and position the company for growth.

我們的重點仍然是策略性舉措，以增強我們為核心市場種植者提供服務的能力，保持低成本地位和資產可靠性，並使公司實現成長。

We are hosting an Investor Day in New York on June 12, where we plan to further outline our strategic priorities and capital allocation plans. Registration is open on our website, and we hope to see many of you in person that day.

我們將於 6 月 12 日在紐約舉辦投資者日，計劃進一步概述我們的策略重點和資本配置計劃。我們的網站已開放註冊，我們希望當天能見到你們中的許多人。

We would now be happy to take your questions.

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Joel Jackson.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自喬爾傑克遜的電話。

Your guidance -- your midterm guidance says you can get to over $1.9 billion retail EBITDA guide, mid-cycle commodity prices. Assuming commodity prices stay where they are now, is that something you can get to in 2025? What do you have to do this year in the business to perceive that? And obviously, you're going to see a 2% or 3% reduction maybe next year if you do sell the non-Brazilian South America retail assets.

你的指導——你的中期指導說你可以獲得超過 19 億美元的零售 EBITDA 指導，即中期商品價格。假設大宗商品價格維持在現在的水平，2025 年你能達到這個水平嗎？今年你必須在業務中做什麼才能意識到這一點？顯然，如果你出售非巴西南美零售資產，明年可能會看到 2% 或 3% 的減少。

Yes. Thanks, Joel. We've talked about sort of mid-cycle. It really is -- talk about normalization of margins and growth in proprietary products in retail. And that's where we talk about the $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion of EBITDA in our retail business contributing to that 7 to 7.5 million that we talked about in the mid-cycle.

是的。謝謝，喬爾。我們已經討論過某種中期週期。確實如此——談論零售業利潤率的正常化和專有產品的成長。這就是我們談論零售業務 19 億至 21 億美元 EBITDA 的地方，這對我們在周期中期談到的 7 至 750 萬美元做出了貢獻。

We talked about prices and we can go commodity by commodity. But really, in some commodities, we're not that -- to your point, we're not far off mid-cycle pricing today. A little bit lower in some nitrogen products today and depending on the region in potash as well. But then it is volume as well. We have our brownfields up and reliability projects that we're funding in our nitrogen business that from 2023 levels could add 1.5 million to 2 million tonnes ultimately getting to 12 million tonnes. And that assumes some better gas reliability in Trinidad as well.

我們討論了價格，我們可以逐一討論商品。但實際上，在某些商品中，我們並不是那樣的——就您而言，我們今天離中期定價不遠了。目前一些氮產品的價格略低，而且鉀肥的價格也取決於地區。但它也是數量。我們正在為我們的氮肥業務提供資金支持，以完善棕地和可靠性項目，從 2023 年開始，氮肥業務的產量可能會增加 150 萬噸至 200 萬噸，最終達到 1200 萬噸。這也假設特立尼達的天然氣可靠性也更好。

And as we've talked about, we've also made the investments to add 1 million to 2 million tonnes of potash over the mid-cycle. So you put that all together, you said $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion in our retail business, some incremental tonnes in nitrogen and some gas in Trinidad that gets you to 12 million tonnes of nitrogen stabilization, normalization of prices at the mid-cycle and some extra tonnes in potash, the 1 million to 2 million tonnes, and that's where we say 7 million to 7.5 million as a mid-cycle.

正如我們所討論的，我們也進行了投資，在週期中期增加 100 萬至 200 萬噸鉀肥。所以你把所有這些放在一起，你說我們的零售業務需要19 億至21 億美元，特立尼達增加一些氮和一些天然氣，這可以讓你達到1200 萬噸氮穩定，週期中期價格正常化以及一些額外的鉀肥，即 100 萬噸至 200 萬噸，我們所說的中期週期為 700 萬噸至 750 萬噸。

Your next question is from the line of Mr. Andrew Wong from RBC Capital.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Andrew Wong 先生。

So potash demand in China looks like it may have taken a step change last year. Your peer, Mosaic, also said something similar to your commentary. So what do you think is driving that growth? They've recently introduced more GMO seeds into the market, could that be driving yields and demand for more potash? And just given that pretty positive view on China, the demand in China will be stronger than the guidance that you have in your global outlook.

因此，中國的鉀肥需求看起來可能在去年發生了重大變化。你的同行馬賽克也說了與你的評論類似的話。那麼您認為是什麼推動了這種成長？他們最近向市場推出了更多的基因改造種子，這是否會推動產量和對更多鉀肥的需求？考慮到對中國相當積極的看法，中國的需求將比您在全球展望中的指導更強。

No, thanks for the question, Andrew. And yes, we would -- as sort of the primary driver point to food security in China. And yes, the Chinese know what potash does for yields and for plant health and for disease resistance and have obviously been growing those volumes. But with this heavy focus in domestic food security, we see that in export volumes for other fertilizer crop nutrition as well that -- yes, there's this push on domestic food security. But I'll hand it over to Jason Newton to talk more about that.

不，謝謝你的提問，安德魯。是的，我們會——作為中國糧食安全的主要驅動因素。是的，中國人知道鉀肥對產量、植物健康和抗病能力有什麼作用，顯然一直在增加鉀肥的產量。但隨著對國內糧食安全的高度關注，我們也看到其他化肥作物營養品的出口量——是的，國內糧食安全受到了推動。但我會把它交給傑森·牛頓來更多地討論這個問題。

Ken hit it right with the concerns about food security. And if we go back 8 years or so from today, we saw a relatively stagnant demand growth for nutrients in China and subsequently also a plateauing of crop production, and we're seeing that Chinese supplies of grain have been at a large deficit to demand since 2020 and large import volumes as a result. And since that time, the government's put a priority in boosting corn production.

肯對食品安全的擔憂恰到好處。如果我們從今天回到 8 年前左右，我們會看到中國對養分的需求增長相對停滯，隨後農作物產量也趨於穩定，我們看到中國的糧食供應一直嚴重供不應求自2020 年以來，進口量很大。從那時起，政府就把提高玉米產量當作優先事項。

And we've seen strong demand across all nutrients in China and a tactical step change in potash that we saw in 2023, also saw a 7% growth in Chinese urea consumption and in 2023 and growth in phosphates as well. And so we've seen the increase in nutrient demand to aim to boost crop production and getting -- moving back towards that historical trend of Nutrien demand growth in China.

我們看到中國對所有營養素的需求強勁，2023 年鉀肥的策略性步驟發生了變化，2023 年中國尿素消費量增長了 7%，磷酸鹽也出現了增長。因此，我們看到營養需求的增加，旨在提高作物產量，並回到中國營養需求成長的歷史趨勢。

Your next question is from the line of Jacob Bout from CIBC.

您的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Jacob Bout。

Wanted to get your thoughts on the growth in potash volumes both in North America and globally. And I guess, barring a strike in North America, first off, the strength you saw in the first quarter, does that extend in the second quarter into the second half? Maybe just talk a bit about your thoughts on in-market inventory levels.

希望了解您對北美和全球鉀肥產量成長的看法。我想，除非北美發生罷工，首先，你在第一季看到的強勢，會在第二季延續到下半場嗎？也許只是談談您對市場庫存水平的看法。

And then internationally, Belarus and Russia clearly ramped up at or exceeding prewar levels. Do you expect them to be much more competitive as you move through the year?

然後在國際上，白俄羅斯和俄羅斯的經濟成長明顯達到或超過了戰前水準。您是否期望隨著這一年的發展，他們會變得更有競爭力？

Jacob. So yes, with respect to growth in potash in North America and globally, I'll hand it over to Mr. Tarsi, Jeff Tarsi, our Head of Retail, has talked about what he's seeing on the ground there, it really is owing to enter in the year with very low inventories and now strong application rates.

雅各.所以，是的，關於北美和全球鉀肥的增長，我將把它交給 Tarsi 先生，我們的零售主管 Jeff Tarsi 談到了他在那裡所看到的情況，這確實是由於進入這一年時，庫存非常低，而現在的施用率很高。

But I'll hand it over to Jeff. And then, yes, globally, we talked earlier this year about where we would see. We thought we would see recovery. And indeed, that's what we're seeing. But I'll hand it over to Mark to talk about the global piece.

但我會把它交給傑夫。然後，是的，在全球範圍內，我們今年早些時候討論了我們將看到的情況。我們以為我們會看到復甦。事實上，這就是我們所看到的。但我會把它交給馬克來談論全球部分。

Yes. And I'd just say on the FSU volumes, I'll hit that one. Yes, we are seeing and have been seeing those volumes come back into the market. But in terms of competitiveness, we are seeing a higher cost to serve. And whether that is the Belarusian volumes with the (inaudible) port, which is delayed, that's we think another $40 a tonne or whether it's Belarusian volumes by rail into China. We think if you're going to try and do that, it's probably $280 a tonne on a delivered basis.

是的。我只想說，在 FSU 卷上，我會打那一卷。是的，我們正在看到並且一直看到這些數量重新回到市場。但就競爭力而言，我們發現服務成本更高。無論是白俄羅斯與（聽不清楚）港口的貨物被延誤，我們認為每噸還會增加 40 美元，還是白俄羅斯透過鐵路運往中國的貨物。我們認為，如果您打算嘗試這樣做，交貨價格可能為每噸 280 美元。

So we could talk about shifting trade flows and redistribution of potash on the planet. But actually, we think it's the opposite. We have -- what you said, we think it's leading to a higher cost to serve. But yes, just back on what we're seeing in North America, Jeff.

因此，我們可以討論貿易流動的轉變和鉀肥在地球上的重新分配。但實際上，我們認為情況恰恰相反。正如您所說，我們認為這會導致服務成本更高。但是，是的，回到我們在北美看到的情況，傑夫。

Yes, Jacob, thanks. And if I look at the North American market in the first quarter, or even go back to the fourth quarter of '23, we saw a strong demand in the fourth quarter. We continue to see strong demand in the first quarter as well. And as I look at it across, really the U.S., I think pricing is attractive to growers. And I think that we've seen some really strong rates. That's not surprising because we pulled a very large crop off in '23. So we had a lot of replenishing to do. And I know as well as we go forward, we're expecting our volume to be up on a full year basis and our margins to be up as well in North America on a full year basis.

是的，雅各布，謝謝。如果我看看第一季的北美市場，甚至回到23年的第四季度，我們會看到第四季的需求強勁。我們仍然看到第一季的強勁需求。當我縱觀整個美國時，我認為定價對種植者來說很有吸引力。我認為我們已經看到了一些非常強勁的利率。這並不奇怪，因為我們在 23 年就獲得了非常大的收成。所以我們有很多補充工作要做。我知道，隨著我們的前進，我們預計我們的銷量將在全年基礎上成長，我們在北美的利潤率也將在全年基礎上成長。

With that, Mark, I'll hand it over to you.

馬克，我就把它交給你了。

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. So maybe I'll just come back to the top on your questions and kind of some of the messaging that Ken provided. I think first, if you look at the global picture, I think the most important factor here is that not a lot has changed in our view over the last 3 months. So we continue to see a very balanced market from a global perspective in 2024. As we've said, our view of global shipments in 2024 remains unchanged at 68 million to 71 million tonnes.

是的。謝謝，傑夫。所以也許我會回到頂部來回答你的問題以及肯提供的一些資訊。我認為首先，如果你看看全球局勢，我認為最重要的因素是，在過去三個月裡，我們的觀點沒有太大變化。因此，從全球角度來看，2024 年我們繼續看到一個非常平衡的市場。

On the demand side of the equation, we continue to expect about 2 million tonnes of growth over last year. And we see that coming from the same markets that we've been talking about. The biggest contributor to that being Southeast Asia and other Asian markets outside China and other shipment gains coming in Europe, India and Latin American markets outside of Brazil.

在需求方面，我們繼續預計比去年增長約 200 萬噸。我們看到這來自我們一直在談論的同一市場。其中最大的貢獻者是東南亞和中國以外的其他亞洲市場，以及歐洲、印度和巴西以外的拉丁美洲市場的其他出貨量成長。

On the supply side, not a lot has changed there either from our initial view coming into the year. We expect that 2 million tonnes of growth to be met from the FSU, Canada and Laos, and we'd see that sort of being split about 50% coming from the FSU and we've seen a little bit of variability month-to-month in the supply out of the FSU, but I'd say largely consistent with our expectations. And then that other 50% being balanced between Canada and Laos.

在供應方面，與我們今年最初的看法相比，也沒有太大變化。我們預計 200 萬噸的成長將由前蘇聯、加拿大和寮國滿足，我們將看到約 50% 的成長來自前蘇聯，而且我們看到每月之間存在一些變化。 ，但我想說與我們的預期基本一致。另外 50% 則由加拿大和寮國平衡。

So I think to reiterate, overall, with lower price volatility, attractive price levels relative to nitrogen and phosphates and then just a more normalized supply/demand balance and environment. We've seen the year start strong from a shipment perspective.

因此，我認為總體而言，價格波動性較低，相對於氮肥和磷酸鹽具有吸引力的價格水平，然後是更正常的供需平衡和環境。從出貨量的角度來看，我們看到今年開局強勁。

Yes. I think back on your question about starting Q1 strong. I think as we said in our commentary and have talked about today already. We see that first half, second half balance being more evenly split this year. So we had a historically strong fill program in North America in Q1, one of our stronger in the last 10 years.

是的。我回想一下你關於第一季強勢開局的問題。我認為正如我們在評論中所說以及今天已經討論過的那樣。我們看到今年上半年和下半年的餘額分佈更加均勻。因此，我們在第一季在北美製定了歷史上最強勁的填充計劃，這是我們過去 10 年來最強大的填充計劃之一。

And I'd say what we're seeing seasonally, to pick up on Jeff's comments, in Q2 is strong demand at the retail level and the grower level. And those tonnes are really going to ground in progress with planting activity, which is about an average pace. So we're watching weather closely, and if weather cooperates, we expect it will be a fairly normal second quarter. So overall, we're encouraged by what we see.

我想說的是，根據傑夫的評論，我們在第二季度看到的是零售層面和種植者層面的強勁需求。這些噸數實際上將隨著種植活動的進展而落地，這大約是平均速度。因此，我們正在密切關注天氣，如果天氣配合，我們預計第二季將是相當正常的。總的來說，我們對所看到的感到鼓舞。

Your next question is from the line of Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的本‧艾薩克森 (Ben Isaacson)。

Congrats on the quarter. Ken, in your press release you called out twice actually about enhancing the quality of our earnings and free cash flow. Can you talk a little bit about what that means, how do you define quality? What is the strategy to achieve this? And is the sale of these noncore assets in Lat Am ex Brazil, is that part of that?

恭喜本季。肯，在您的新聞稿中，您實際上兩次呼籲提高我們的盈利品質和自由現金流。您能談談這意味著什麼嗎？實現這目標的策略是什麼？在拉丁美洲（巴西除外）出售這些非核心資產是其中的一部分嗎？

Yes, absolutely, Ben. And we do intend to talk more about exactly that at Investor Day. But when we say quality of earnings, it is something that we talk about as being sustainable. And that's, hence, the focus on reliability in nitrogen. You'll have seen that we took, I would say, somewhat painful outage at our Borger facility last year. And because of some reliability concerns, that's paying dividends for us today.

是的，絕對是，本。我們確實打算在投資者日更多地討論這一點。但當我們談到獲利品質時，我們所說的獲利品質是可持續的。因此，這就是對氮氣可靠性的關注。我想說，您會看到去年我們博格工廠經歷了一次令人痛苦的停電。由於一些可靠性問題，今天這為我們帶來了紅利。

We have changed our operating model at Trinidad so that we can optimize gas utilization when it's available. That's paying dividends for us. And you see that reflected in our operating rates in the first quarter this year, and we're going to seek to focus on that and continue and make that a ratable thing for shareholders.

我們改變了特立尼達的營運模式，以便在可用時優化天然氣利用率。這為我們帶來了紅利。你會看到這一點反映在我們今年第一季的營運率中，我們將尋求關注這一點並繼續努力，使之成為股東可評估的事情。

You see us making investments in mine automation in potash and really, that is obviously a safety benefit, but there's a productivity benefit as we continue to expand our underground footprint that we're focusing on that cash cost of production. You saw in the first quarter at $56. That's quite a competitive outcome. And we're going to continue to focus on that.

你看到我們在鉀肥的礦山自動化方面進行了投資，這顯然是一個安全效益，但隨著我們繼續擴大我們的地下足跡，我們專注於生產的現金成本，也會帶來生產力效益。第一季的價格為 56 美元。這是一個相當有競爭力的結果。我們將繼續關注這一點。

And the example that you provide on Argentina is a great one, Jacob. Where it's a stable business, but with the currency controls and the macroeconomic environment there and for something that represents 3% of our retail sales, 2% of retail EBITDA, it really is focusing on quality of earnings, but our ability to convert to cash as well because we know the ultimate importance of cash.

雅各布，你提供的關於阿根廷的例子就是一個很好的例子。這是一項穩定的業務，但由於貨幣管制和宏觀經濟環境，對於占我們零售額 3%、零售 EBITDA 2% 的業務來說，它確實關注的是盈利質量，但我們轉換為現金的能力還因為我們知道現金的最終重要性。

So focusing across the network, maintaining conviction around capital allocated priorities, and we can talk about the things that we're doing in as well in terms of proprietary products, network optimization and digital investments, those investments are returning high-quality earnings proprietary products with its $1 billion in gross margin contribution in 2023 and a 15% 5-year CAGR on our biostimulants and crop nutritionals, these are very high-quality earnings that we can also convert to cash.

因此，專注於整個網絡，對資本分配優先事項保持信念，我們可以談論我們在專有產品、網絡優化和數位投資方面正在做的事情，這些投資正在為專有產品帶來高品質的收益到2023年，我們的毛利率將達到10 億美元，而我們的生物刺激劑和作物營養品的5 年複合年增長率為15%，這些都是非常高品質的收入，我們也可以將其轉換為現金。

So I just said a number of things there, Ben, but we'll talk more about that at Investor Day, but really, those are the types of things that we're just absolutely focused on to have ratable high-quality earnings that we can convert to cash because, of course, we know the importance of cash.

所以我只是在那裡說了很多事情，本，但我們會在投資者日更多地討論這一點，但實際上，這些是我們絕對關注的事情類型，以獲得可評級的高質量收益，我們可以兌換成現金，因為我們當然知道現金的重要性。

Your next question is from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

I was hoping to maybe dig a little bit more on the potash side and just the cadence and geographic mix of shipments over the balance of the year. Just given your own sales in the first quarter, there's effectively no growth left. And I appreciate that you had a very strong North America fill program in 1Q and 3Q last year is probably not going -- going to be tough to repeat in North America, but also Canpotex's mix of sales to other Asia, which should be the predominant source of global demand growth this year was lower year-on-year.

我希望能在鉀肥方面多挖掘一點，以及今年剩餘時間的出貨節奏和地理組合。就你自己第一季的銷售額來看，其實已經沒有成長了。我很欣賞你們去年第一季和第三季制定的非常強大的北美填充計劃可能不會在北美重複，而且 Canpotex 對其他亞洲的銷售組合也應該是主要的今年全球需求增長的來源同比較低。

So just help us think about how we should think about that progression through the year kind of the likelihood that we end the U.S. season or the North America season with inventories empty that could draw in another strong fill program in the second half or risk that, that maybe carries over and you see weaker wholesale shipments domestically kind of over the balance of the year?

因此，請幫助我們思考一下，我們應該如何考慮全年的進展，即我們在美國季節或北美季節結束時庫存為空的可能性，這可能會在下半年引入另一個強有力的補充計劃，或者面臨這樣的風險，這可能會延續下去，你會發現今年剩餘時間國內批發出貨量有所減弱？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Adam. So yes, we are maintaining our guidance with the midpoint of 13.4 million tonnes. And that's because when we look out into the balance of the year, yes, there's a risk of strike and those sorts of things. But as we go market by market, and as we see what's happening on the ground, we have maintained that guidance range. And by the way, that does include some strike risk as well.

是的。謝謝你的提問，亞當。所以，是的，我們維持 1340 萬噸中位數的指導。那是因為當我們展望今年剩餘時間時，是的，存在罷工和諸如此類的風險。但當我們逐一考察並了解實際情況時，我們維持了這個指導範圍。順便說一句，這確實也包括一些罷工風險。

But I'll hand it over to Mark here to maybe talk through to what we're seeing region by region.

但我會把它交給馬克，也許他會逐一討論我們所看到的情況。

Thanks, Ken. So look, I think maybe just again to start at the top, as I mentioned earlier in the call, we'd see that first half, second half split being relatively balanced and even this year. And so again, on the first half, see a very strong fill program in Q1 and continuing to see good demand in Q2, but we see that being a relatively normal half picture, assuming that weather cooperates.

謝謝，肯。所以看，我想也許只是再次從頂部開始，正如我在電話會議中之前提到的那樣，我們會看到上半年、下半年的分配相對平衡，甚至今年也是如此。同樣，在上半年，我們看到第一季的填充計劃非常強勁，並且在第二季度繼續看到良好的需求，但我們認為，假設天氣配合，這是一個相對正常的一半情況。

I think if you step back and you look at kind of the total picture in terms of offshore shipments for us and domestic, I think a 35% domestic, 65% offshore is a good way to think about the business for the full year. And there's nothing that we've seen that would change our expectations around that.

我認為，如果你退後一步，看看我們和國內的離岸發貨量的總體情況，我認為35% 的國內發貨量、65% 的離岸發貨量是考慮全年業務的好方法。我們所看到的一切都不會改變我們對此的期望。

If you zoom in on a couple of markets in terms of how we've started the year, just to get to your question on geographic mix, we saw very strong granular demand to start the year. And so Brazil has been a very strong pull on product. And as we just talked about, North America has been strong as well. And so when you're looking at those end market shipments and the proportion of offshore shipments, certainly granular markets have started off on a stronger foot.

如果你從我們如何開始今年的角度來放大幾個市場，只是為了回答你關於地理組合的問題，我們看到了今年開始時非常強勁的細粒度需求。因此，巴西對產品的吸引力非常大。正如我們剛才談到的，北美也很強大。因此，當您查看這些終端市場出貨量和離岸出貨量的比例時，您會發現，細粒度市場無疑已經開始走強。

I would say in Southeast Asia that shipments are up to start the year over last year, which is very important, because we see that as being the single largest contributor by market to the growth in global demand this year. And I think as we move through the year, our expectation is that as we see even one of the international contracts get settled, and we expect that India would be first, we'll see further momentum in demand out of Southeast Asia, which should provide firming and standard grade demand and potentially some firming and price stability in those markets moving into the latter part of the year.

我想說的是，在東南亞，今年年初的出貨量高於去年，這非常重要，因為我們認為東南亞是今年全球需求成長的最大單一市場貢獻者。我認為，隨著這一年的推移，我們的期望是，當我們看到哪怕是一份國際合約得到解決時，我們預計印度將是第一個，我們將看到東南亞的需求進一步增長，這應該進入今年下半年，這些市場的需求將趨於堅挺和標準等級，並可能出現一定程度的堅挺和價格穩定。

I think just to finish off on North America and your question on inventories, I think you've heard Jeff talked earlier in the call about the position that Nutrien Ag Solutions is taking. And I'd say that's very consistent with the rest of our customers. Demand has been very healthy for potash in North America this spring for the reasons that we talked about. But our expectation is that the channel is going to attempt to end the season very empty or as empty as they can.

我想，為了結束北美和您關於庫存的問題，我想您已經聽到傑夫在電話會議早些時候談到了 Nutrien Ag Solutions 所採取的立場。我想說這與我們其他客戶的看法非常一致。由於我們談到的原因，今年春季北美的鉀肥需求非常健康。但我們的期望是，該頻道將嘗試以非常空或盡可能空的方式結束本賽季。

And so again, we think that's very healthy and normal. That's a return to normal behavior in the buying channel. And so we think, again, that would set us up for second half demand in North America that would once again be healthy, given all the factors that we've talked about.

再說一遍，我們認為這是非常健康和正常的。這是購買管道正常行為的回歸。因此，考慮到我們討論過的所有因素，我們再次認為，這將為我們下半年北美的需求再次健康奠定基礎。

So I think you step back from that, in the North American market, we'd actually expect a market size in North America, quite similar to what we saw last year. So all of those factors, again, point us to the fact that the market is playing out largely as we had expected so far, and we're encouraged by the stability we've seen.

所以我認為你退一步來說，在北美市場，我們實際上預計北美的市場規模與我們去年看到的非常相似。因此，所有這些因素再次向我們指出這樣一個事實，即市場目前的表現基本上符合我們的預期，我們對所看到的穩定性感到鼓舞。

Your next question is from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

I have a couple for Jeff Tarsi. Last fall, I believe your business had a significant amount of soil sampling and nutrient testing. And my question for you is, with a strong fourth quarter and first quarter application reads, would you assess nutrient levels in all of the regions where you have a retail business? Is it back to more normal fertility levels? Or do you think there's more to go here after a couple of years of below-normal applications?

我有一對給傑夫·塔西（Jeff Tarsi）的。去年秋天，我相信您的企業進行了大量的土壤採樣和養分測試。我想問您的問題是，鑑於第四季度和第一季的申請閱讀量強勁，您是否會評估您擁有零售業務的所有地區的營養水平？生育率是否恢復到更正常的水平？或者，在經歷了幾年低於正常水平的申請之後，您是否認為這裡還有更多的事情要做？

And then just secondly, if you would comment on how you would rank the levers that you can pull to drive the EBITDA growth in retail? Is it more U.S. bolt-ons? Or is it more on your proprietary side of crop chems and seeds and biologicals?

其次，您是否願意評論如何對推動零售業 EBITDA 成長的槓桿進行排名？是不是更多的是美國的補強？或更多的是您在農作物化學品、種子和生物製品方面的專有方面？

Thanks, Steve, and good morning. And from your question pertaining to the soil sampling. And I think I've said this before, for many, many years, we always tried to figure what percent was an art and what percent was a science. And today, I'd say that 90% of our applications are a science based off of the soil sample, and we did have extensive sampling last fall, and we had -- with a good early break earlier in the year, we continue to see very healthy sampling coming in, in the first quarter as well.

謝謝，史蒂夫，早安。從你關於土壤採樣的問題來看。我想我之前已經說過了，多年來，我們總是試圖弄清楚百分之多少是一門藝術，百分之多少是一門科學。今天，我想說，我們 90% 的應用都是基於土壤樣本的科學，去年秋天我們確實進行了廣泛的採樣，而且我們在今年早些時候取得了良好的早期突破，我們繼續看到第一季度也有非常健康的樣本出現。

And so I do think that we're getting back to much more normal buying patterns, and I think you heard that mentioned a little bit before by Mark, I see that from our grower perspective as well. I think that we continue to pull off really high crop yields and any time, we're pulling off high crop yields, then we're going to be replenishing that soil with the NP&K.

所以我確實認為我們正在回到更正常的購買模式，我想你聽說過馬克之前提到過這一點，我也從我們種植者的角度看到了這一點。我認為我們將繼續實現非常高的作物產量，並且任何時候，我們都將實現高作物產量，然後我們將使用 NP&K 來補充土壤。

And so I think we probably are -- we'll get much closer to normal than we were 2 years prior when higher prices scared some growers off. Again, I said a little bit earlier this morning, I think the prices that we sit at today are attractive to growers. And I would expect with -- somewhere in line with what USDA is forecasting for crop yields this year, I would expect again for a very healthy fall application season as well as it relates to North America and Brazil from that standpoint as well.

所以我認為我們可能會比兩年前更接近正常水平，當時更高的價格嚇跑了一些種植者。我今天早上早些時候說過，我認為我們今天的價格對種植者來說很有吸引力。我預計，與美國農業部對今年農作物產量的預測一致，我預計秋季施用季節將再次非常健康，從這個角度來看，這也與北美和巴西有關。

When you talk about the levers in retail, I think we have several levers in retail. I know, what sits closest to my heart is always organic growth because that's, to me, that's one of the easiest things we can achieve. And so trying to increase customer share of wallet we still -- we've worked hard to grow our seed portfolio, and we're still in that process of growing that business. And so I still think we have opportunity there.

當你談論零售業的槓桿時，我認為我們在零售業有幾個槓桿。我知道，我最關心的始終是有機成長，因為對我來說，這是我們能夠實現的最簡單的事情之一。因此，為了增加客戶的錢包份額，我們仍然努力擴大我們的種子投資組合，並且我們仍在發展該業務的過程中。所以我仍然認為我們在那裡有機會。

Obviously, we have ample opportunity across our Loveland products line. We're very fortunate to have that platform, but then our retail organization, we think it creates significant opportunities for us. If I look at how we've started the quarter this year around Loveland products. Our margins are up across all ships, about just under 8% globally and over 14% from a U.S. perspective.

顯然，我們的 Loveland 產品線擁有充足的機會。我們非常幸運擁有這個平台，但我們的零售組織認為它為我們創造了重要的機會。如果我看看我們今年季度如何圍繞 Loveland 產品開始。我們所有船舶的利潤率均有所上升，全球約為 8%，而美國則超過 14%。

Our biostimulant nutritional segments continue to grow at a double-digit pace and we're really excited about what that ship provides for us. And we're seeing our crop protection margins come in a lot stronger as well. And so I think what you'll see, and we'll share more of this at Investor Day as well, is some of our plans to grow that ship of our proprietary business in international markets where we don't have a retail presence, and that excites me a lot.

我們的生物刺激營養部分繼續以兩位數的速度增長，我們對這艘船為我們提供的東西感到非常興奮。我們看到我們的作物保護利潤也變得更加強勁。因此，我認為您將看到，我們也將在投資者日分享更多內容，是我們在沒有零售業務的國際市場上發展自營業務的一些計劃，這讓我很興奮。

Ken mentioned network rationalization, and we continue to strive to rationalize our network with some of the work we do around our growth ex project where we're taking batches and building one and closing the other. We think that brings a lot of efficiency to our business.

肯提到了網路合理化，我們繼續努力透過圍繞我們的成長前專案所做的一些工作來合理化我們的網絡，我們正在分批建立一個並關閉另一個。我們認為這為我們的業務帶來了很大的效率。

And then we have -- we're still going to very opportunistically look at tuck-in acquisitions. Those have worked really well for us, particularly in North America and Australia, and we'll continue to look at those opportunities.

然後我們仍然會非常機會主義地考慮收購。這些對我們來說非常有效，特別是在北美和澳大利亞，我們將繼續尋找這些機會。

And then the last thing I'm going to mention, and this is always at the top of our radar is control and are controllable from an expense standpoint. I hope I touched on what you asked there, Steve.

我要提到的最後一件事是控制，並且從費用的角度來看是可控的，這始終是我們關注的重點。我希望我談到了你問的問題，史蒂夫。

Your next come question is from the line of Michael Tupholme TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Michael Tupholme TD Cowen。

You spoke earlier in the call about numerous operational initiatives within your fertilizer segment is benefiting the quarter's results. Can you provide an update as to where you're at with some of those improvement initiatives? And what you're still working on and how we should think about the impact on costs in potash and nitrogen specifically as we move through the balance of the year?

您早些時候在電話會議中談到化肥部門的眾多營運舉措正在有利於本季度的業績。您能否提供其中一些改進舉措的最新進展？您還在做什麼？

No, definitely, Mike. So yes, I'll hand it over to Trevor to just provide an update on, one, the reliability work that we've done, but then also the status of brownfield investments that we're making to add capacity. And then maybe Chris Reynolds to talk about mine automation. But the other work that we're doing at our operations to reduce costs, as an example, we increased our ore tonnes cut by automation by 40% last year. So we are certainly on a journey here to move to sort of full autonomous or tolerable mining, which again contributes to cost and productivity in addition to safety.

不，當然，麥克。所以，是的，我將把它交給特雷弗，只提供我們所做的可靠性工作的最新情況，以及我們為增加容量而進行的棕地投資的狀況。然後克里斯雷諾茲可能會談論礦山自動化。但我們正在為降低成本而在營運中進行其他工作，例如，去年我們透過自動化削減的礦石噸數增加了 40%。因此，我們肯定正在邁向完全自主或可容忍的採礦，這除了安全性之外，也再次提高了成本和生產力。

But Trevor, over to you.

但是特雷弗，交給你了。

And thanks for the question. Just a couple of things, and I'm going to take you back to our Q3 earnings call last year when we really talked about some of the challenges we had and some of the more specific actions were taken to really drive both reliability improvements as well as reliability or soil utilization type activities across our fleet.

謝謝你的提問。只是幾件事，我將帶您回顧去年第三季度的財報電話會議，當時我們真正討論了我們面臨的一些挑戰，以及為真正推動可靠性改進而採取的一些更具體的行動作為我們機隊的可靠性或土壤利用類型的活動。

Primarily focused on Trinidad and Borger, as we talked about last year, and really happy to be able to talk to the fact that as a result of those actions that we took last year, and Ken mentioned that earlier on in terms of when it is responses, is we did see a step change improvement in terms of both capacity utilization with respect to our Trinidad asset. And that really is related to the availability and how we utilize gas at that facility as well as, again, Ken mentioned, we did invest some money. We took the time and invested a significant amount of energy into our Borger facility, and we're really starting to see those pay off in terms of in 2024.

主要關注特立尼達和博格，正如我們去年談到的那樣，並且非常高興能夠談論這樣一個事實：由於我們去年採取的這些行動，肯早些時候提到過這一點回應是，我們確實看到了特立尼達資產的產能利用率方面的逐步改善。這確實與該設施的可用性以及我們如何利用天然氣有關，而且，肯再次提到，我們確實投資了一些錢。我們花時間並在 Borger 設施上投入了大量精力，我們將在 2024 年真正開始看到這些回報。

We also talked about a little bit in terms of, as Ken mentioned, while we did see some minor weather impacts this year in terms of earlier Q1. Again, the focus we put on winterization really setting our assets up for success here late last year, again, really paid some dividends in terms of where we are.

正如肯所提到的那樣，我們還討論了一些問題，而今年第一季早些時候我們確實看到了一些輕微的天氣影響。同樣，我們對防凍措施的關注確實為我們的資產在去年年底取得成功奠定了基礎，再次就我們所處的位置而言，確實帶來了一些紅利。

So a simple example, if you look at just in terms of our strategy in Trinidad, we are operating at about a 10% increase in terms of overall gas utilization, capacity utilization, which is a big step change.

舉個簡單的例子，如果你只看一下我們在特立尼達的策略，我們的整體天然氣利用率和產能利用率成長了約 10%，這是一個很大的進步。

So in terms of the debottleneck side in terms -- with respect to some of our growth side, so we did complete several smaller debottlenecks in Q4, late Q3, early Q4 of last year, primarily at Geismar and a little bit of Borger. And those in combination with the reliability items that I talked about and Ken mentioned, we're going to add about a little over 1 million tonnes over the course of the next several years in terms of capacity and reliability additions.

因此，就去瓶頸方面而言，就我們的一些增長方面而言，我們確實在去年第四季度、第三季度末、第四季度初完成了幾個較小的去瓶頸，主要是在Geismar 和一點博格。結合我談到的和 Ken 提到的可靠性項目，我們將在未來幾年內增加約 100 萬噸以上的產能和可靠性。

So with that, I'll pass it over to Chris for some comments on the potash side.

因此，我會將其轉交給克里斯，徵求有關鉀肥方面的一些評論。

Yes, Mike, thanks for the question. And as Ken mentioned, we've been really pleased with our progress in terms of the automation of our mines. (inaudible) with an increase in the ore that we cut in 2023 compared to 2022. And we've seen the progress continue here in the first quarter as well. And that's one of the benefits when you have 6 low-cost, low-emission mines across our network, and we spread that automation across the 5 conventional underground mines.

是的，麥克，謝謝你的提問。正如肯所提到的，我們對礦場自動化的進展感到非常滿意。 （聽不清楚）與 2022 年相比，我們在 2023 年切割的礦石量有所增加。當您在我們的網路中擁有 6 個低成本、低排放礦山，並且我們將自動化擴展到 5 個傳統地下礦山時，這就是好處之一。

The learnings that you can get across the network, which accelerates that performance and that experience. And so that's one of our main areas of concentration for improving our cost. But then there are numerous continuous improvement projects we have, again, spread across that network of 6 mines. And so the biggest one is the automation, but then there's a number of other smaller continuous improvement projects we're focused on as well.

您可以透過網路獲得知識，從而提高效能和體驗。因此，這是我們降低成本的主要重點領域之一。但是，我們再次在 6 個礦山網路中開展了許多持續改進項目。因此，最大的一個是自動化，但我們也關注許多其他較小的持續改善項目。

Your next question is from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

I would love to hear your thoughts sort of on the reconciliation of the nitrogen market year-to-date in particular, in North America, just sort of how you think through the movement in prices recently with the sort of factual data on the reduction in imports year-to-date versus normal. So I would just like to hear your thoughts on how and why that played out and also what you think the shape of the rest of the year will look like.

我很想聽聽您對今年迄今為止氮肥市場協調的看法，特別是在北美，您如何看待最近的價格變動以及有關氮肥減少的事實數據今年迄今為止的進口量與正常情況相比。因此，我想聽聽您對這種情況如何以及為何發生的想法，以及您認為今年剩餘時間的情況會是什麼樣子。

No, that's good, Vincent. Thanks for the question. There are a number of moving parts there to be sure. I'll hand it over to Jason Newton to talk about sort of the macro and the fundamentals in the near term and then over to Mark to talk about the market.

不，那很好，文森。謝謝你的提問。可以肯定的是，有許多活動部件。我將把它交給傑森·牛頓（Jason Newton）來談論近期的宏觀和基本面，然後交給馬克來談論市場。

As I mentioned, that the [dinamis] differ product by product in nitrogen, we've seen various movements through the year to date. If we look at ammonia to start, and that's where you mentioned, if we look at the U.S. trade balance, the ammonia market has been tight. We saw early strong spring ammonia applications in the U.S. And those 2 factors led to -- in combination with production outages in the U.S. led to tight supply and demand for ammonia and in support for U.S. ammonia prices.

正如我所提到的，[dinamis] 中的氮因產品而異，我們今年迄今為止已經看到了各種變化。如果我們從氨開始，這就是你提到的，如果我們看看美國的貿易平衡，氨市場一直很緊張。我們看到美國早春氨應用量強勁，這兩個因素加上美國的生產中斷，導致氨供需緊張，並支撐了美國氨價格。

In addition, if we look globally, the trade east and west of U.S. has been impacted by challenges in shipping through the Red Sea. And so shipments from the Middle East to West in Suez markets has been constrained because of that. And so to some extent, we've seen stronger ammonia pricing than we would have expected through the year, it's relatively flat overall.

此外，如果我們放眼全球，美國東部和西部的貿易都受到紅海航運挑戰的影響。因此，蘇伊士市場從中東到西方的貨運量因此受到限制。因此，在某種程度上，我們看到全年氨價格比我們預期的要高，整體相對平穩。

The urea market, I'd say we'd see relatively normal price seasonality. We started the year relatively strong. And you can see, if you look on Slide 26 in our deck, of the 3 major nitrogen products, the urea trade balance has been most balanced in the U.S. and that, in our minds, is evidence that buyers are proactive in positioning themselves for spring.

我想說，尿素市場的價格季節性相對正常。我們今年開局相對強勁。如果您查看我們幻燈片中的第 26 張幻燈片，您會發現，在 3 種主要氮產品中，美國的尿素貿易平衡最為平衡，在我們看來，這證明買家積極主動地為自己定位春天。

And we have seen in the last couple of the spring application and planting progress has slowed with the weather that we've seen. And so that in combination with weaker-than-expected Indian tender results, the anticipation of Chinese supply, which is kind of been off and on and some uncertainty there in terms of when that supply will actually be available, that's put some pressure on urea prices, which at this time of year, Northern Hemisphere demand is wrapping up and the time to get it into market is drawing to a close. It's pretty normal.

我們在過去幾年的春季應用中看到，隨著天氣的影響，播種進度已經放緩。因此，加上印度招標結果弱於預期、對中國供應的預期時斷時續，以及供應何時實際到位存在一些不確定性，這給尿素帶來了一些壓力每年的這個時候，北半球的需求正在結束，進入市場的時間也即將結束。這很正常。

And just to finish on urea, we do see that gold prices have moved seasonally lower. But in market prices within North America have maintained a large premium to the important benchmarks, which is typical for this time of the year.

最後，我們確實看到金價季節性走低。但北美市場價格相對於重要基準仍維持較大溢價，這是每年這個時候的典型情況。

Yes. And Vincent, it's Mark. Thanks for the question. Jason covered the macro really well. So maybe just talk for a minute about what does it mean for us and kind of walk you through the remainder of the spring from order book or commercial perspective.

是的。文森特，是馬克。謝謝你的提問。 Jason 很好地涵蓋了宏觀。因此，也許只需談談這對我們意味著什麼，然後從訂單或商業角度引導您度過春季剩餘的時間。

When we look at our total expected mix for Q2, we would anticipate about 60% of our nitrogen volumes going to the ag market and the remaining 40% going to industrial customers. As we've talked about many times, that industrial volumes either under contract or linked to formula pricing. And so really, when we're talking about what's left for us, it's in the ag order book. And today, we would be about 60% sold across all products for the second quarter. And we did layer in a decent portion of this volume before we saw more volatility at NOLA and urea.

當我們查看第二季的整體預期組合時，我們預計約 60% 的氮氣量將流向農業市場，其餘 40% 將流向工業客戶。正如我們多次討論的那樣，工業量要么根據合約規定，要么與公式定價掛鉤。事實上，當我們談論剩下的東西時，它就在農業訂單簿中。今天，我們第二季所有產品的銷售量約為 60%。在看到 NOLA 和尿素出現更大波動之前，我們確實買入了相當一部分交易量。

I think just to pick up on one of the points that Jason mentioned in our business, when you look at that pricing dynamic for urea in North America, inland pricing has helped at more stable premium levels due to tighter supply-demand balances in those regions. And this is a point where the geographic mix of our business, the location of our plants, the product mix flexibility that we have really is a benefit.

我認為，只要了解傑森在我們業務中提到的一點，當你觀察北美尿素的定價動態時，由於這些地區的供需平衡趨緊，內陸定價有助於實現更穩定的溢價水平。在這一點上，我們業務的地理組合、工廠的位置以及我們擁有的產品組合靈活性確實是一個優勢。

And of course, as Trevor just talked about, enhanced reliability and completion of the brownfield is giving us flexibility to move between products and really optimize margins in these more volatile environments. And so as Jason said, we do expect a typical post-spring reset for our business, but this position of our tonnes and how we've approached the market has probably provided some buffer versus the volatility we've seen at NOLA urea.

當然，正如特雷弗剛才談到的，增強的可靠性和棕地的完成使我們能夠靈活地在產品之間移動，並在這些更加不穩定的環境中真正優化利潤。正如 Jason 所說，我們確實預計我們的業務會在春季後出現典型的重置，但我們的噸位狀況以及我們進入市場的方式可能為我們在 NOLA 尿素看到的波動提供了一些緩衝。

Your next question is from Christopher Parkinson from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的克里斯托弗·帕金森。

This is Harris Fein on for Chris. Just a quick one for me on the retail side. Maybe if we can just discuss a little bit more how the regional performances are kind of stacking up against each other U.S. versus Australia versus Brazil? And what you're hearing on the ground in each region that maybe differs from the others.

我是哈里斯費恩 (Harris Fein) 替克里斯發言。對我來說，在零售方面只是簡單介紹一下。也許我們可以多討論一下美國、澳洲和巴西等地區的表現如何比較？您在每個地區所聽到的情況可能與其他地區有所不同。

And then on the U.S. just any concerns you might have on U.S. farmer profitability in the context that we've been hearing that maybe they've been a little bit slower to monetize the crop and there's a little bit more green than normal on-site that they're holding on to still, if you can just touch on that?

然後在美國，您可能對美國農民的盈利能力有任何擔憂，因為我們聽說他們在農作物貨幣化方面可能有點慢，而且現場的綠色程度比正常情況要多一些他們還在堅持，你能談談嗎？

Yes. This is Jeff, and I'll answer those questions and first of all, I would characterize the first quarter from the Nutrien Ag Solutions perspective as a very normal quarter with very solid results. And what was really impressive to me is our EBITDA was up $100 million year-over-year with really a return to strong margins in fertilizer volume. But our chemistry as well showed remarkable recovery from a GP standpoint, and we're at historical to above historical.

是的。我是傑夫，我將回答這些問題，首先，我將從 Nutrien Ag Solutions 的角度將第一季描述為一個非常正常的季度，具有非常堅實的業績。真正令我印象深刻的是，我們的 EBITDA 年增了 1 億美元，化肥銷售確實恢復了強勁的利潤率。但從全科醫生的角度來看，我們的化學反應也顯示出顯著的恢復，我們正處於歷史甚至高於歷史的水平。

If I look at it across geographies, I'd tell you that North America performed very strongly, and that was without a whole lot of activity in Canada through the first quarter. And I'd tell you that Australia was very consistent, right in line with where we thought they would be through the first quarter.

如果我跨地區查看，我會告訴你北美的表現非常強勁，而且加拿大第一季沒有大量活動。我想告訴你，澳洲的表現非常穩定，與我們預期的第一季的表現一致。

I think we mentioned several times that the recovery in Latin America and particularly in Brazil is taking a bit longer than most people anticipated. We still think we'll see some recovery in the second half of the year. And if I look at -- listen to most of our suppliers, most of them are talking for more of that recovery to come in early 2025. But again, if I'm looking at it by geography, extremely pleased with North America, very consistent in Australia and a slower recovery in Latin America.

我想我們多次提到拉丁美洲，特別是巴西的復甦比大多數人預期的要長。我們仍然認為下半年會出現一些復甦。如果我聽聽我們大多數供應商的意見，他們中的大多數都在談論 2025 年初將出現更多復甦。保持一致，而拉丁美洲的復甦則較慢。

I think it's fair to say, Jeff, that in terms of the health of the grower, we're coming off a couple of good years here where balance sheets continue to be strong. On the farm, and we've seen some strengthening in corn, soybean prices over the last week, given some weather concerns and crop input prices are competitive. Obviously, they have come off. So while affordability and margins aren't what they were, if you -- sorry, what margins are a few years ago, they're still going to be a relatively good year.

傑夫，我認為可以公平地說，就種植者的健康狀況而言，我們已經度過了好幾年，資產負債表繼續強勁。在農場，鑑於天氣問題以及作物投入價格具有競爭力，上週玉米、大豆價格走強。顯然，他們已經脫落了。因此，雖然負擔能力和利潤率已不如以前，但如果你——抱歉，幾年前的利潤率是多少，那麼今年仍然將是相對較好的一年。

Yes. And we'll see -- look, we'll see in the very southern extreme to the North American market. We'll see some crop shift there. And I think that's reflected in the -- looking at a 90 million-acre projected corn acres. We've seen a pretty good shift from corn to soybeans in that geography. And -- but I think, we'll be fairly normal when we look into -- look across the Corn Belt areas. We don't ever see a lot of drastic shifts in acreage.

是的。我們將會看到——看，我們將會看到北美市場的最南端。我們會在那裡看到一些作物轉變。我認為這反映在預計的 9,000 萬英畝玉米種植面積中。在該地區，我們已經看到從玉米到大豆的良好轉變。而且 - 但我認為，當我們研究 - 看看整個玉米帶地區時，我們會相當正常。我們從未見過面積發生很大的變化。

From that standpoint, as Ken just mentioned, the last week, we've seen some recovery in commodity pricing, which comes at a great time when we're really engaged in putting our inputs across these acres. And as Ken mentioned, our growers are coming off really 3 to 4 years of a very healthy environment for agriculture. We still see balance sheets as extremely strong. And as indicative of activity in the first quarter, we think the growers are very engaged and put the inputs needed to produce a top crop.

從這個角度來看，正如肯剛剛提到的，上週我們看到商品價格有所回升，這是我們真正致力於將投入投入這些土地的好時機。正如 Ken 所提到的，我們的種植者將在 3 到 4 年內享受非常健康的農業環境。我們仍然認為資產負債表非常強勁。作為第一季活動的指標，我們認為種植者非常積極投入，並投入了生產優質作物所需的投入。

Your next question is from the line of Richard Garchitorena from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的理查德·加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

Nice quarter. So just maybe to the retail business. I was wondering if you could just give us some color on what you are assuming for the year in terms of crop protection volumes and pricing. We've heard from your crop protection peers, pricing is going to be down year-over-year?

不錯的季度。所以也許只是零售業務。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您對今年作物保護產量和定價的假設。我們從您的作物保護同行那裡聽說，價格將會逐年下降？

And then in terms of the volume recovery, what are you expecting, embedding in your forecast in the back half of this year? And then just on a related note, pricing in general. You talked about nitrogen and what you're seeing on the supply/demand side. On potash, are you assuming flat pricing in the retail business as well?

那麼就銷售恢復而言，您對今年下半年的預測有何預期？然後是相關的說明，一般定價。您談到了氮以及您在供需方面看到的情況。關於鉀肥，您是否也假設零售業務的定價也持平？

Yes. So I'll quickly hand it over to Jeff. Yes, I mean, you'll have to go differentiate between what we're seeing in North America in crop protection, certainly in Brazil, where lagging, and we still see a lot of high-priced volumes in the channel. But yes, Jeff, over to you on crop protection and then maybe a few words about potash from a retail perspective.

是的。所以我很快就把它交給傑夫。是的，我的意思是，你必須區分我們在北美作物保護方面看到的情況，尤其是在巴西，那裡的情況比較落後，而且我們仍然在渠道中看到很多高價銷量。但是，是的，傑夫，現在請您談談作物保護，然後從零售角度談談鉀肥。

Yes. As I mentioned a bit earlier, as I look at crop protection and look at the first quarter. Number one, I was quite pleased again with recovery in our margin rates GP on the crop protection side of things, I think globally, we were up about 300 basis points quarter-over-quarter with crop protection margins, even a wider variance as I look at the North American market.

是的。正如我之前提到的，當我關注作物保護並關注第一季時。第一，我對作物保護的利潤率 GP 的恢復感到非常高興，我認為在全球範圍內，我們的作物保護利潤率比上一季度上升了約 300 個基點，甚至更大的差異，因為我看看北美市場。

When I look at it from a revenue perspective, I think we were off slightly, maybe 4% for the quarter. Globally on a crop protection standpoint, a lot of that has to do with lower priced glyphosate and glufosinate, I think from a unit standpoint or volume standpoint, it would probably be very similar.

當我從收入角度來看時，我認為我們這個季度略有下降，可能是 4%。從全球作物保護的角度來看，這很大程度上與價格較低的草甘膦和草銨膦有關，我認為從單位角度或數量角度來看，它可能非常相似。

Look, we've worked extremely hard, especially in a high interest rate environment. We've worked extremely hard to bring our inventory down. And if I sit here today on a total perspective from an inventory side of things, we're all just under $1.5 billion of inventory. And that's equally split pretty much so by crop protection and fertilizer. And so that puts us in a good position. We want to run our inventories extremely low from a balance sheet standpoint. And that will give us some very opportunistic, we hope, buying opportunities in the fall from that standpoint.

看，我們工作得非常努力，尤其是在高利率環境下。我們非常努力地降低庫存。如果我今天坐在這裡從庫存方面全面角度來看，我們的庫存都略低於 15 億美元。作物保護和肥料的支出幾乎均等。這讓我們處於有利的位置。從資產負債表的角度來看，我們希望將庫存控制在極低的水平。我們希望，從這個角度來看，這將為我們帶來一些非常機會主義的秋季買入機會。

I think I mentioned earlier, if I look at Australia and North America crop protection, that's a bit of a different picture from the Latin America and Brazil market. Again, crop protection is a real drag today in that Brazilian market. And -- but what I am very pleased with in that market, I think Ken mentioned earlier that we were down about $150 million of inventory. That's just on crop protection. We brought our overall inventory down there, $300 million. So we're really working to get ourselves in a better inventory position.

我想我之前提到過，如果我看看澳洲和北美的作物保護，就會發現這與拉丁美洲和巴西市場的情況有些不同。如今，作物保護再次成為巴西市場的真正拖累。而且 - 但我對這個市場非常滿意的是，我認為 Ken 之前提到我們減少了約 1.5 億美元的庫存。這只是關於作物保護。我們把我們的整體庫存降到了那裡，價值 3 億美元。因此，我們確實正在努力讓自己處於更好的庫存狀況。

We will see a recovery in those crop protection margins, however, when we see the whole industry get to that same inventory level going forward.

然而，當我們看到整個產業未來達到相同的庫存水準時，我們將看到這些作物保護利潤率的復甦。

And I think you had some questions about how we see pricing and the fall and stuff. And I think assuming a fairly stable potash market and pricing as both Mark and Ken responded to earlier. We see that pricing pretty stable. And again, if we pull the type of crop off that we think we're going to pull off this year, then we should see strong demand this fall.

我認為您對我們如何看待定價和下跌等問題有一些疑問。我認為假設鉀肥市場和定價相當穩定，正如馬克和肯早些時候回應的那樣。我們看到定價相當穩定。再說一次，如果我們完成我們認為今年將完成的作物類型，那麼今年秋天我們應該會看到強勁的需求。

Your next question is from the line of Steve Hansen from Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的史蒂夫漢森 (Steve Hansen)。

I'm just curious here, sticking to the theme of reliability. I'm curious how you feel about the resiliency of your logistical export capabilities. I recognize you can't control strike actions, of course, across your supply chain, but including one that might come this month. But I am thinking just about the terminal issue to hit the Pacific Northwest last fall, the lengthy strike in Vancouver last year. You've often talked about 1/3 export valves in the U.S. Gulf in the past. Is that still an idea you want to pursue? And just any broader commentary around how you think about that reliability of the export network.

我只是好奇，堅持可靠性主題。我很好奇您對您的物流出口能力的彈性有何看法。我意識到，當然，你無法控制整個供應鏈的罷工行動，但包括本月可能發生的罷工行動。但我正在考慮去年秋天太平洋西北地區的最終問題，即去年溫哥華的長期罷工。您過去經常談到美灣地區 1/3 的出口閥門。這仍然是你想要追求的想法嗎？以及有關您如何看待出口網路可靠性的任何更廣泛的評論。

Thank you, Steve. Thanks for the question. And I would say for the things that are in our control, we feel very good about the resilience and reliability of our network. And in fact, we would consider it to be the most extensive and competitive in the world. And that is, obviously, our load-out capabilities at our mine sites, it is our capabilities across our network in North America, nitrogen network. It's our capabilities right through warehousing trucks into our customers in North America and then offshore through terminals, as you say.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。謝謝你的提問。我想說的是，對於我們控制範圍內的事情，我們對網路的彈性和可靠性感到非常滿意。事實上，我們認為它是世界上最廣泛、最具競爭力的。顯然，這就是我們在礦場的裝載能力，這是我們在北美網路（氮網路）的能力。正如您所說，我們的能力是透過倉儲卡車將貨物運送到北美的客戶，然後透過碼頭運往海外。

And with Canpotex, we do have access to multiple terminals. Obviously, the main one is on the North Shore of Vancouver Neptune terminals, but we spend a lot of volumes through the department and we have an outlet in St. John, New Brunswick as well. And in fact, well, that's a long journey by rail, depending on what's happening in the Panama Canal. That is a great outlet for us for the East Coast of Latin America.

透過 Canpotex，我們確實可以存取多個終端。顯然，主要的一個是在溫哥華北岸的海王星碼頭，但我們透過該部門花費了大量的資金，我們在新不倫瑞克省的聖約翰也有一個分店。事實上，這是一段很長的鐵路旅程，取決於巴拿馬運河的情況。這對我們進入拉丁美洲東海岸來說是一個很好的出路。

So we do have optionality and we have that optionality as well for ports off the Gulf Coast. And we have used, in fact, used those terminals, including our own in North Carolina. And so we continue to maintain that option. And we believe that we've proven that so that when we do have these things that are out of our control, we can right through that value chain, preposition product, fill the channel to the extent that we can and minimize the impact of the things that are out of our control.

因此，我們確實有選擇權，對於墨西哥灣沿岸的港口也有這種選擇。事實上，我們已經使用過這些終端，包括我們在北卡羅來納州的終端。所以我們繼續保留這個選擇。我們相信，我們已經證明了這一點，因此，當我們確實遇到這些超出我們控制範圍的事情時，我們可以直接通過該價值鏈，前置產品，盡可能地填充渠道，並將影響降至最低。

We've proven that time and time again. Indeed, that's the work that we have done today in preparation for what might be over the coming weeks with some of the challenges with rail. So we'll see about that. But hence, maintaining our guidance range, including some of those things that are out of our control because we have that extraordinary and extensive and competitive network.

我們已經一次又一次證明了這一點。事實上，這就是我們今天所做的工作，為未來幾週可能出現的鐵路挑戰做準備。所以我們會看看這個。但因此，維持我們的指導範圍，包括一些我們無法控制的事情，因為我們擁有非凡、廣泛和有競爭力的網絡。

Operator, we have time for one more question.

接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Your last question is from the line of Edlain Rodriguez from Mizuho Group.

你的最後一個問題來自瑞穗集團的埃德蘭·羅德里格斯（Edlain Rodriguez）。

Just one quick one. I mean I know for you guys, we don't think the potash contracts with China and India are as important as they used to be in the past. But somehow they still loom large in our mind. Given the recovery in domain you've seen in the global market, would you be disappointed if those contracts settle at a lower price, then the current prices that they have now?

就快一點吧。我的意思是，我知道對你們來說，我們認為與中國和印度的鉀肥合約不像過去那麼重要。但不知何故，它們仍然在我們心中佔據著重要地位。鑑於您在全球市場上看到的網域復甦，如果這些合約以低於當前價格的價格結算，您會感到失望嗎？

Yes. We're watching those markets closely. Obviously, Edlain, thank you for the questions. Those are standard grade markets. And you're right that while we have sort of reduced reliance on those contract markets, particularly China. It is also true to your point that we've seen a bit of a seasonal pause in standard grade markets as some of the other spot markets for standard grade, watch the contract process.

是的。我們正在密切關注這些市場。顯然，艾德蘭，謝謝你的提問。這些是標準等級市場。你是對的，雖然我們對這些合約市場的依賴有所減少，特別是中國。您的觀點也確實如此，我們已經看到標準等級市場出現了一些季節性暫停，因為其他一些標準等級現貨市場正在關注合約流程。

So I'll hand it over to Mark, who sits on the Canpotex board and is watching the evolution of the inventory levels in the contract markets and how those discussions are going.

因此，我將把它交給 Mark，他是 Canpotex 董事會成員，正在關注合約市場庫存水平的演變以及這些討論的進展。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. Yes, I think, again, as Ken mentioned and I mentioned earlier in the call, we've seen really good momentum in certain markets, including some of the standard markets at the start the year. But again, as you mentioned, while those contracts, particularly China, is less meaningful both from a Canpotex sales mix and just overall global volumes than it was previously, we still think that's one of a number of indicators that will allow standard volume to keep moving throughout the remainder of the year.

是的。謝謝，肯。是的，我認為，正如肯和我之前在電話會議中提到的那樣，我們在某些​​市場看到了非常好的勢頭，包括年初的一些標準市場。但正如您所提到的，雖然這些合約（尤其是中國）從Canpotex 銷售組合和全球整體銷售來看都比以前意義較小，但我們仍然認為這是允許標準銷售保持不變的眾多指標之一。

I think just a bit of color in terms of how we're thinking about those. If you look at India first, in India, shipments and the vessel lineup are off to a stronger start in 2024 so far versus last year, and we would view the inventory levels in India is actually being below historically average levels. So consistent with what we've said before, we do still think India is going to be the first to conclude an offshore contract, and we see the potential for import economics to remain favorable. We do see the potential that any reduction in contract price. The positive of that would be that, that could be passed along by the government in the form of the maximum retail price, which would again stimulate demand down at the Farm level.

我認為就我們如何思考這些問題而言，只是有點色彩。如果您首先關注印度，那麼到目前為止，印度的發貨量和船舶陣容在 2024 年將比去年有更強勁的開局，我們認為印度的庫存水平實際上低於歷史平均水平。因此，與我們之前所說的一致，我們仍然認為印度將成為第一個簽訂離岸合約的國家，並且我們看到進口經濟仍然有利的潛力。我們確實看到了合約價格下降的可能性。這樣做的好處是，政府可以以最高零售價的形式傳遞這一訊息，這將再次刺激農場層級的需求下降。

So when we look at all those factors combined with expectations for a more favorable rainfall, all these factors support our view that we do think there's going to be growth in Indian shipments this year, which would be a positive overall for demand.

因此，當我們考慮所有這些因素以及對更有利降雨的預期時，所有這些因素都支持我們的觀點，即我們確實認為今年印度的出貨量將會成長，這對整體需求來說是正面的。

And then I think just from a China perspective to reiterate some of the points that Ken made earlier in the call, through Q1, we've actually seen very strong shipments to China. And there does appear to have been a step change in consumption and demand that's continued, and that underscores the importance of potash and crop nutrients for the agricultural market there.

然後我認為，從中國的角度來看，重申肯早些時候在電話會議中提出的一些觀點，透過第一季度，我們實際上看到對中國的出貨量非常強勁。消費和需求似乎確實發生了持續的階梯變化，凸顯了鉀肥和農作物營養素對那裡農業市場的重要性。

And with those new higher levels of consumption and lower domestic production, the doubling of the strategic reserve target of 3 million tonnes, we do think that higher absolute inventories will become more normal in China to meet the country's needs. Probably can't speculate on the timing of the contract at this point, but we've seen good demand out of China without a contract, and we continue to believe that our global demand estimate is going to hold for the year.

隨著新的消費水準的提高和國內產量的下降，以及300萬噸戰略儲備目標的翻倍，我們確實認為中國較高的絕對庫存將變得更加正常，以滿足國家的需求。目前可能無法推測合約的時間，但我們在沒有合約的情況下看到了來自中國的良好需求，並且我們仍然相信我們今年的全球需求估計將保持不變。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the call back to Jeff Holzman for some closing remarks. Please go ahead.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給傑夫·霍爾茲曼（Jeff Holzman），請他發表一些結束語。請繼續。

All right. Thank you for joining us today, and we look forward to seeing you on June 12 for our Investor Day. Have a great day.

好的。感謝您今天加入我們，我們期待在 6 月 12 日的投資者日見到您。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。