(NTR) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2023 second quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jeff Holzman, Vice President of investor relations. Please go ahead, sir.

您好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Holzman 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's second quarter 2023 conference call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain material assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts.

謝謝你，接線員。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2023 年第二季度電話會議。在我們進行本次電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計劃和前景所做的各種聲明都包含前瞻性信息。在做出這些結論和預測時應用了某些實質性假設。

Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our current quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form filed with Canadian and U.S. Securities Commissions. I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, President and CEO; and Pedro Farah, our CFO, for opening comments before we take your questions.

因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性信息中包含的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的更多信息包含在我們當前向股東提交的季度報告以及我們最近的年度報告、MD&A 以及向加拿大和美國證券委員會提交的年度信息表中。我現在將把電話轉給總裁兼首席執行官 Ken Seitz；我們的首席財務官佩德羅·法拉赫 (Pedro Farah) 在我們回答您的問題之前發表了評論。

Good morning and thank you for joining us today as we review our Q2 results and the outlook for our business. Fertilizer industry has gone through a period of unprecedented volatility over the past 18 months, driven by a series of unique events. However, we are encouraged by the continued improvement in demand as the year has progressed. This is most evident in North America, where we had a strong spring season relative fertilizer price stability and a significant reduction in channel inventories. The positive sentiment is carried into the second half with solid customer engagement on all fertilizer products. The process has been slower in certain offshore fertilizer markets with a lack of consistent buying, but we believe the most significant period of volatility is now behind us. Moving forward, we know there will be fluctuations in the market requiring Nutrien to maintain a flexible approach and focus on controlling what we can control.

早上好，感謝您今天加入我們，我們將回顧第二季度的業績和業務前景。過去 18 個月，在一系列獨特事件的推動下，化肥行業經歷了前所未有的波動時期。然而，隨著時間的推移，需求的持續改善令我們感到鼓舞。這在北美最為明顯，春季肥料價格相對穩定，渠道庫存大幅減少。由於客戶對所有化肥產品的積極參與，積極的情緒延續到了​​下半年。由於缺乏持續的購買，某些離岸化肥市場的進程較慢，但我們認為最顯著的波動時期現已過去。展望未來，我們知道市場將會出現波動，要求 Nutrien 保持靈活的方法並專注於控制我們可以控制的事情。

The strategic actions we announced yesterday reflects our commitment to disciplined capital allocation and a focus on initiatives that enhance free cash flow through the cycle. Before I speak more about the outlook and specific actions we are taking, I will turn it over to Pedro to review our Q2 results.

我們昨天宣布的戰略行動反映了我們對嚴格資本配置的承諾以及對增強整個週期自由現金流的舉措的關注。在我更多地談論我們正在採取的前景和具體行動之前，我將把它交給佩德羅來審查我們的第二季度業績。

Thanks, Ken. Our second quarter performance illustrated the contrast between how the market has progressed in North America compared to certain offshore markets. Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion in the second quarter and $3.9 billion through the first half of the year. This represented the second highest earnings total for both respective periods but was down significantly from the record prior year due to lower fertilizer prices, offshore financial sales volumes and retail margins. Nutrien Ag Solutions results in the quarter was supported by strong grower demand in North America and the relative stability of our business in Australia. North America retail crop nutrient margins largely normalized as higher cost inventory moved through the channel. Sales volumes were up 16% compared to the prior year and would have been even higher if not for the extremely dry conditions throughout the U.S. Midwest.

謝謝，肯。我們第二季度的業績展示了北美市場與某些離岸市場的進展情況之間的對比。 Nutrien 第二季度調整後 EBITDA 為 25 億美元，上半年調整後 EBITDA 為 39 億美元。這代表了兩個時期的第二高盈利總額，但由於化肥價格、離岸金融銷售量和零售利潤率下降，較去年的創紀錄水平大幅下降。 Nutrien Ag Solutions 本季度的業績得益於北美種植者的強勁需求以及我們在澳大利亞業務的相對穩定性。隨著成本較高的庫存通過該渠道，北美零售作物養分利潤基本正常化。與上一年相比，銷量增長了 16%，如果不是美國中西部地區極端乾燥的天氣，銷量還會更高。

We ended the quarter with fertilizer inventories at a multiyear low, down more than 40% from the prior year. We expect this is generally indicative of retail inventory levels across North America, setting up the potential for large purchasing requirements in the second half. Crop Protection gross margins were impacted in the quarter by lower prices for certain commodity products, higher cost inventories and reduced demand as a result of the dry conditions in the U.S. Midwest. We recognized a noncash impairment primarily related to the goodwill of our South American retail business. This region has been impacted by volatility in crop input markets and a sharp increase in local interest rates among other macroeconomic factors. The long-term prospects for agriculture in South America remains strong, and we see opportunity for future growth. However, in the near term, we are pausing additional investment in this region until there is further market stabilization.

本季度結束時，我們的化肥庫存處於多年來的最低水平，比上一年下降了 40% 以上。我們預計這通常反映了北美地區的零售庫存水平，從而為下半年的大量採購需求奠定了基礎。本季度作物保護毛利率受到某些大宗商品價格下降、庫存成本上升以及美國中西部乾旱導致需求減少的影響。我們確認了主要與南美零售業務商譽相關的非現金減值。該地區受到農作物投入市場波動和當地利率急劇上升等宏觀經濟因素的影響。南美洲農業的長期前景依然強勁，我們看到了未來增長的機會。然而，短期內，我們將暫停對該地區的額外投資，直到市場進一步穩定。

Now turning to our fertilizer segment. still impacted in the quarter by lower benchmark prices compared to the exceptionally strong period in 2022. In potash, we increased sales volumes in North America and achieved relatively stable pricing compared to a trailing quarter. This outcome was in line with our expectations. Offshore demand was weaker due to a lack of consistent engagement in spot markets and a delayed contract settlement with China. Our offshore net realized price was impacted by lower benchmark prices and additional logistical costs associated with an unplanned outage at Canpotex's export terminal in Portland. North American nitrogen prices were down from the prior year but strengthened during the quarter as supply tightened following the start of the spring application season. Global ammonia markets were pressured by lower European gas prices and weaker industrial demand. Second quarter nitrogen sales volumes increased by 10% from prior year, driven by strong fertilizer demand.

現在轉向我們的肥料領域。與 2022 年異常強勁的時期相比，本季度仍受到基準價格較低的影響。在鉀肥方面，我們增加了北美的銷量，並實現了與上一季度相比相對穩定的定價。這個結果符合我們的預期。由於現貨市場缺乏持續參與以及與中國的合同結算延遲，離岸需求疲軟。我們的離岸淨實現價格受到較低基準價格以及與波特蘭 Canpotex 出口碼頭意外停運相關的額外物流成本的影響。北美氮肥價格較上年有所下降，但由於春季施用季節開始後供應緊張，本季度氮肥價格有所上漲。全球氨市場受到歐洲天然氣價格下跌和工業需求疲軟的壓力。在化肥需求強勁的推動下，第二季度氮肥銷量比去年同期增長了 10%。

Our nitrogen gross margin as a percentage of sales was about 35% in the quarter, highlighting the advantages of our strategically positioned assets. The performance of our supply chain and order book positioning allowed us to capture incremental value associated with the in-season premiums that emerge in North America during the quarter. Phosphate benefited from the strength of industrial and feed product lines, partially offsetting the impact of lower fertilizer prices. We completed maintenance and reliability initiatives and are targeting utilization rates above 90% in the second half of the year. During the quarter, we recognized the noncash impairment charge to our wide screens phosphate assets. This facility has a short mine life than our Aurora site. Therefore, near-term fluctuations in fertilizer prices and margins have a greater impact on carrying value of its assets. Under IFRS accounting, this has resulted in the recognition of both impairment losses and reversals in recent years. To summarize, our first half results were below the record prior year.

本季度我們的氮氣毛利率佔銷售額的百分比約為 35%，凸顯了我們戰略定位資產的優勢。我們的供應鍊和訂單簿定位的表現使我們能夠捕捉到與本季度北美出現的季節性溢價相關的增量價值。磷酸鹽受益於工業和飼料產品線的強勢，部分抵消了化肥價格下跌的影響。我們完成了維護和可靠性計劃，目標是下半年利用率超過 90%。在本季度，我們確認了寬屏磷酸鹽資產的非現金減值費用。該設施的礦山壽命比我們的奧羅拉站點短。因此，化肥價格和利潤率的近期波動對其資產賬面價值影響較大。根據國際財務報告準則會計，這導致近年來確認了減值損失和轉回。總而言之，我們上半年的業績低於去年的記錄。

However, we saw a number of positive market developments, in particular in North America that provide opportunities for Nutrien as we look forward to the second half of 2023 and beyond. And now I'll turn it back to Ken.

然而，我們看到了許多積極的市場發展，特別是在北美，這為 Nutrien 提供了機會，我們期待 2023 年下半年及以後的發展。現在我會把它轉回給肯。

Thanks, Pedro. I will start with the outlook for the business and our updated full year guidance assumptions. Weather and geopolitical challenges continue to prevent our replenishment of global grain and oilseed supply and is providing support for ag commodity prices. Futures prices for corn, wheat and soybeans are 15% to 20% above the 10-year average, and fertilizer affordability has improved significantly over the last year. North American crop development is tracking ahead of the historical average pace, which could support an early harvest and extended fall application window for fertilizer. The combination of low channel inventories and prospects for a strong fall season has contributed to increased demand for all fertilizer products in the third quarter. We had a very positive response to our North American potash fill program and have closed the order book for third quarter deliveries with a targeted $30 per short ton increase for the fourth quarter.

謝謝，佩德羅。我將從業務前景和我們更新的全年指導假設開始。天氣和地緣政治挑戰繼續阻礙我們補充全球穀物和油籽供應，並為農業大宗商品價格提供支撐。玉米、小麥和大豆的期貨價格比10年平均水平高出15%至20%，肥料的承受能力比去年顯著改善。北美農作物的生長速度領先於歷史平均水平，這可能支持早期收穫和延長秋季施肥窗口。渠道庫存低和秋季前景強勁，導致第三季度所有化肥產品的需求增加。我們對北美鉀肥灌裝計劃反應非常積極，並已關閉第三季度交付的訂單，第四季度的目標是每短噸增加 30 美元。

Turning to Brazil, where growers have purchased a lower-than-normal proportion of inputs for their upcoming spring planting season, which we anticipate will lead to solid demand over the next few months. Brazil fertilizer prices have strengthened in recent weeks with potash prices up around 10% since early June. We expect Canadian potash exports will be constrained in the third quarter by logistical challenges related to the strike at the Port of Vancouver and the outage at Campo Texas Portland terminal. It could take several more weeks until the backlog is cleared and the supply chain returns to normal. As a result, we have lowered our estimate for global potash shipments to a range of 63 million to 65 million tonnes in 2023.

轉向巴西，種植者為即將到來的春季種植季節購買的投入品比例低於正常水平，我們預計這將導致未來幾個月的強勁需求。巴西化肥價格近幾週走強，鉀肥價格自 6 月初以來上漲約 10%。我們預計第三季度加拿大鉀肥出口將受到與溫哥華港罷工和坎波德克薩斯波特蘭碼頭停運相關的物流挑戰的限制。可能還需要幾週的時間才能清除積壓訂單並使供應鏈恢復正常。因此，我們將 2023 年全球鉀肥出貨量預測下調至 6300 萬噸至 6500 萬噸。

Nutrien's full year adjusted EBITDA is now projected between $5.5 billion to $6.7 billion. As disclosed in our news release on July 11, the revision largely reflects factors impacting offshore potash sales through Canpotex and lower offshore realized prices than previously anticipated, including the impact of higher logistics costs. We reduced our potash sales volume guidance to a range of 12.6 million to 13.2 million tons and have adjusted our production plans accordingly. We lowered our nitrogen adjusted EBITDA guidance range slightly due to a decline in global ammonia benchmark prices in the second quarter. Urea prices have strengthened in the third quarter, and we anticipate a recovery in ammonia markets driven by low inventories and ongoing production curtailments. Our revised retail guidance reflects greater margin pressure in South America as we sell through higher cost inventory and the impacts of dry conditions in North America during the growing season. We expect a strong fall fertilizer application season and per ton margins above historical average values, which is in large part due to growth in our proprietary nutritional products.

Nutrien 全年調整後 EBITDA 目前預計在 55 億美元至 67 億美元之間。正如我們在7 月11 日發布的新聞稿中所披露的，此次修訂主要反映了影響通過Canpotex 進行的離岸鉀肥銷售的因素以及低於之前預期的離岸實現價格，包括物流成本上升的影響。我們將鉀肥銷量指導下調至 1260 萬噸至 1320 萬噸，並相應調整了生產計劃。由於第二季度全球合成氨基準價格下降，我們小幅下調了氮素調整後 EBITDA 指導範圍。第三季度尿素價格走強，我們預計氨市場將在低庫存和持續減產的推動下復甦。我們修訂後的零售指引反映了南美洲更大的利潤壓力，因為我們通過更高的成本庫存進行銷售，以及北美生長季節乾旱條件的影響。我們預計秋季施肥季節將強勁，每噸利潤將高於歷史平均水平，這在很大程度上歸功於我們專有營養產品的增長。

Based on the change in projected earnings and cash flow for 2023, we have taken a number of actions to reduce controllable costs and provide additional flexibility for future capital allocation. We are indefinitely pausing our potash ramp-up following the completion of in-flight projects in the second half. These projects are primarily related to the procurement of new mining machines that support further automation of our fleet. We will maintain operational flexibility in our potash business, preserving the ability to quickly respond to changes in the market while ensuring we maintain our low-cost position. We have also made the decision to suspend work on our Geismar clean ammonia project and to defer the timing of capital spend on select brownfield expansions.

根據2023年預計盈利和現金流的變化，我們採取了多項行動來降低可控成本，並為未來的資本配置提供額外的靈活性。在下半年完成在建項目後，我們將無限期暫停鉀肥產能的增加。這些項目主要與採購新採礦機有關，以支持我們車隊的進一步自動化。我們將保持鉀肥業務的運營靈活性，保持快速響應市場變化的能力，同時確保保持低成本地位。我們還決定暫停 Geismar 清潔氨項目的施工，並推遲部分棕地擴建項目的資本支出時間。

We previously stated that a final investment decision on our Geismar project was contingent on obtaining a greater degree of certainty on capital cost estimates, and as engineering work progressed, we have seen some escalation in costs. Therefore, at this time, we expect to have higher return alternatives for our capital. We believe emerging uses for clean ammonia will provide a long-term growth opportunity for the nitrogen industry, but there continues to be uncertainty on the timing of this demand. We will monitor how this market evolves and evaluate future options with the objectives of preserving value and optionality for the project. In retail, we are reducing expenditures across a number of smaller investment projects as we prioritize capital across the business and maintain flexibility on future allocation opportunities. The focus of the retail team will be to integrate recently acquired businesses in Brazil, drive supply chain and operating efficiencies and enhance the free cash flow generation of the business.

我們之前曾表示，Geismar 項目的最終投資決定取決於資本成本估算是否獲得更大程度的確定性，隨著工程工作的進展，我們發現成本有所上升。因此，此時我們期望我們的資本有更高回報的選擇。我們相信清潔氨的新興用途將為氮肥行業提供長期增長機會，但這種需求的時機仍然存在不確定性。我們將監控該市場的發展情況並評估未來的選擇，以保持項目的價值和選擇性。在零售業，我們正在減少一些較小投資項目的支出，因為我們優先考慮整個業務的資本，並保持未來分配機會的靈活性。零售團隊的重點將是整合最近在巴西收購的業務，提高供應鍊和運營效率，並增強業務的自由現金流生成。

In aggregate, these initiatives are expected to lower our 2023 capital expenditures by $200 million and reduced associated capital by $2.5 billion to $3 billion over the next 5 years. We will also take measures to reduce operating expenditures by approximately $100 million in 2023 to offset some of the impacts from extraordinary events that occurred this year. Looking ahead, we believe structural market shifts are supportive of higher average fertilizer benchmark prices through the next cycle. This view is driven by the expectation for continued tightness in global crop markets, higher energy prices and other inflationary impacts on the global cost curve. Based on the changes to our capital plans, we have revised our mid-cycle earnings scenario to reflect lower anticipated potash and nitrogen sales volumes.

總的來說，這些舉措預計將使我們 2023 年的資本支出減少 2 億美元，並在未來 5 年內將相關資本減少 25 億至 30 億美元。我們還將採取措施，在 2023 年減少約 1 億美元的運營支出，以抵消今年發生的非常事件的部分影響。展望未來，我們認為結構性市場轉變將支持下一個週期平均化肥基準價格的上漲。這種觀點是由於對全球農作物市場持續緊張、能源價格上漲以及全球成本曲線的其他通脹影響的預期所推動的。根據我們資本計劃的變化，我們修改了中期盈利情景，以反映較低的預期鉀肥和氮肥銷量。

For potash, we assume a return to trend line global demand growth and nutrient sales volumes in the range of 14 million to 15 million tonnes. We now expect a mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA scenario in the range of $7 billion to $7.5 billion, which is highlighted on Slide 18 of our Q2 earnings presentation along with a comparison to our previous mid-cycle assumptions. In closing, we expect to generate strong cash flow through the cycle and are committed to a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation. We will leverage the advantages of our integrated business and continue to position the company to serve the needs of our customers and deliver long-term value for our shareholders. We would now be happy to take your questions.

對於鉀肥，我們假設全球需求增長回歸趨勢線，養分銷量在 1,400 萬噸至 1,500 萬噸之間。我們現在預計週期中期調整後的 EBITDA 情景將在 70 億至 75 億美元之間，這一點在我們第二季度收益報告的幻燈片 18 中得到了強調，並與我們之前的中期假設進行了比較。最後，我們預計將在整個週期中產生強勁的現金流，並致力於採取平衡且嚴格的資本配置方法。我們將利用綜合業務的優勢，繼續使公司能夠滿足客戶的需求，為股東創造長期價值。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now conduct the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from the line of Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，我們現在進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）。你的第一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Joel Jackson。

Can we talk about potash capability. So now that you paused or referred to adding more machinery and people, what is the maximum potash production that you able to produce this year and next year to run rate? And then maybe balancing out one of your competitors, your Canpotex partner, suggests that potash demand, potash shipments will not get back to the 70 million ton level until 2025, and they based that on a lot of supply constraints. But you have excess supply that you could run if you wanted to. So a bit of confusion over how much of that is a demand story getting back versus constraints out of Belarus. Can you talk about your sort of your own views on that story on that theme?

我們能談談鉀肥能力嗎？那麼，既然您暫停或提到增加更多的機械和人員，那麼您今年和明年能夠生產的最大鉀肥產量是多少？然後也許平衡你的競爭對手之一，你的 Canpotex 合作夥伴，表明鉀肥需求、鉀肥出貨量要到 2025 年才會恢復到 7000 萬噸的水平，他們是基於許多供應限制。但如果你願意的話，你可以運行過剩的供應。因此，對於其中有多少是需求恢復與白俄羅斯的限制之間的關係，有些混亂。您能談談您對這個主題的故事的看法嗎？

Yes, and thanks for the question. So yes, for 2023, we -- based on some of the challenges, shipping Canadian potash, we reduced total global shipments to 63 million to 65 million tonnes, and we were guided this year as you've seen 12.6 million to 13.2 million tons -- next year of customers we're calling for 15.5 million tons, we would be able to supply into that. So by the end of this year, as mentioned in the commentary, we'll have procured mining machines, we'll have completed in-flight projects and have the ability to meet customer needs to that level. As it relates to the return to historical trend line demand in potash, when we talk about our new mid-cycle, it's in that 70 million to 75 million ton range. And our assumptions are getting back to that sort of level over the next few years.

是的，謝謝你的提問。所以，是的，對於 2023 年，我們——基於運輸加拿大鉀肥的一些挑戰，我們將全球總運輸量減少到 6300 萬噸至 6500 萬噸，今年我們的指導量為 1260 萬噸至 1320 萬噸— —明年我們需要1550 萬噸的客戶，我們將能夠供應。所以到今年年底，正如評論中提到的，我們將採購礦機，完成在建項目，並有能力滿足客戶的需求。由於這與鉀肥需求回歸歷史趨勢線有關，因此當我們談論新的中期週期時，需求量就在 7000 萬噸至 7500 萬噸範圍內。我們的假設將在未來幾年內恢復到這種水平。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Hansen from Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的史蒂夫·漢森 (Steve Hansen)。

Just wanted to follow up on the potash expansion strategy or at least the halting of it. Can you just give us a rough sense for the capabilities after the inflate projects are completed? I'm not sure if that was delineated exactly? And then as we think about sort of year-over-year improvements in export capabilities, both in Vancouver and in Portland, how do you feel about moving the amount of volumes that you're talking about here in the next year, you still feel confident that that's doable?

只是想跟進鉀肥擴張戰略，或者至少停止它。您能否給我們大致介紹一下 inflate 項目完成後的功能？不知道這個描述是否準確？然後，當我們考慮溫哥華和波特蘭的出口能力逐年提高時，您對明年在這裡談論的出口量的轉移有何看法，您仍然覺得有信心這是可行的嗎？

Yes, Steve. So when we talk about sort of global trend line demand of 70 million to 75 million tons and our new mid-cycle assumption for Nutrien of that 14 million to 15 million tons and allowing ourselves some surge capacity to flex into the market when customers are calling for it. That's what we're planning for this. If customers are calling for 15.5 million tons next year, we would be able to supply into that. Having completed this year our in-flight projects in expanding some potash capability. So, it's in and around that range. As it relates to export capacity, I mean, we have expansion capability in -- at Neptune, we have some expansion capability. This is all via Canpotex at Portland. So we have line of sight across at least certainly our 5-year plan to be able to ship potash into a market that's growing. And hence, our plans around the new mid-cycle.

是的，史蒂夫。因此，當我們談論 7000 萬至 7500 萬噸的全球趨勢線需求以及我們對 Nutrien 1400 萬至 1500 萬噸的新中期假設時，並允許我們自己在客戶需求時有一些激增的產能進入市場為了它。這就是我們的計劃。如果客戶明年需要 1550 萬噸，我們就能供應。今年我們完成了擴大部分鉀肥產能的在建項目。所以，它在這個範圍內或附近。就出口能力而言，我的意思是，我們有擴張能力——在海王星，我們有一些擴張能力。這一切都是通過波特蘭的 Canpotex 進行的。因此，我們的五年計劃至少是確定能夠將鉀肥輸送到不斷增長的市場。因此，我們圍繞新的中期週期制定了計劃。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的安德魯·黃 (Andrew Wong)。

So in the mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA scenario, can you talk about what you use or assume for retail. Obviously, it's been under pressure for this year, and, but we also saw a very high number last year. So what would you consider as a normal run rate? Or maybe put another way, what would retail look like this year under normal conditions? And then just secondly, on retail SG&A, it is down a little bit this year, but not down as much as what the overall segment profitability was. So the operating coverage ratio has gone up. What's your expectation on how that trends going forward?

因此，在周期中期調整後的 EBITDA 場景中，您能否談談您對零售業的使用或假設。顯然，今年它面臨著壓力，而且，去年我們也看到了一個非常高的數字。那麼您認為正常的運行率是多少？或者換句話說，在正常情況下，今年的零售業會是什麼樣子？其次，在零售銷售、SG&A 方面，今年略有下降，但下降幅度沒有整體部門盈利能力下降那麼多。所以經營覆蓋率上升了。您對這一趨勢的未來發展有何期望？

Thanks, Andrew. As it relates to our retail assumption for mid-cycle earnings, yes, last year was an interesting year in terms of margins being quite strong and then obviously talking about the reset for 2023, which we're experiencing, and we're experiencing that really across our retail business and probably more than anywhere in Brazil with the extreme volatility we've seen there. But our assumption prior to this current view of mid-cycle and as we've described in Slide 18 of our presentation, our assumption was $2.1 million, billion out of our retail business. And we're now saying about $1.9 billion to $2 billion when margins do normalize to Yes. So it's $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion is our assumption. Jeff, maybe I'll pass it over to you to talk about Andrew's question regarding SG&A.

謝謝，安德魯。因為它與我們對中期盈利的零售假設有關，是的，去年是有趣的一年，利潤率相當強勁，然後顯然是在談論 2023 年的重置，我們正在經歷這一點，我們正在經歷這一點確實是在我們的零售業務中，而且可能比巴西任何地方都嚴重，我們在那裡看到了極端的波動。但在當前的中期週期觀點之前，我們的假設是，正如我們在演示幻燈片 18 中所描述的，我們的假設是我們的零售業務支出為 210 萬美元，十億美元。現在，當利潤率正常化為“是”時，我們所說的收入約為 19 億至 20 億美元。所以我們的假設是 19 億到 21 億美元。 Jeff，也許我會將其轉交給您來討論 Andrew 關於 SG&A 的問題。

Yes, Andrew, thanks. When we look at SG&A and we look at this year on a year-over-year basis from that perspective, a lot of our increased costs have come from a standpoint of our expansion into Brazil. And 60% of our cost in the sales and customer-focused organization comes with people and people are our largest cost. And so we've obviously seen some wage inflation in that area. But with that said, we have -- we started early in the year, taking some very targeted actions this year to reduce headcount where it isn't absolutely an essential -- in particular, we're very focused on reevaluating our organizational needs in Latin America to ensure that we have the right scale to operate efficiently and properly for the size of our current operations. Ken mentioned in his comments, and I think Pedro as well that we've been very deliberate about controlling our controllables, and we're taking out discretionary costs across our network. If you look at it on a percentage basis, we've managed to hold our cash expenses below 10% of revenue for the quarter, which is actually just slightly better than last year despite an overall reduction in revenue. And in dollar terms, adjusted cash expenses are down year-over-year on a year-to-date and quarter basis. So that's something I'd like to think that we're doing continuously in controlling our controllables, and we're certainly going to put a lot of effort on in the back half of the year and going forward as we continue to drive efficiency in our organization.

是的，安德魯，謝謝。當我們審視 SG&A 並從這個角度逐年審視今年時，我們增加的成本大部分來自於我們向巴西擴張的角度。在銷售和以客戶為中心的組織中，我們 60% 的成本來自人員，而人員是我們最大的成本。因此，我們顯然看到該地區的工資有所上漲。但話雖如此，我們在今年早些時候就開始了，今年採取了一些非常有針對性的行動，以減少並非絕對必要的人員數量，特別是，我們非常注重重新評估我們的組織需求拉丁美洲，確保我們擁有適當的規模，能夠根據我們當前的業務規模高效、正確地運營。肯在他的評論中提到，我認為佩德羅也提到，我們一直非常謹慎地控制我們的可控因素，並且我們正在整個網絡中消除可自由支配的成本。如果你從百分比的角度來看，我們已經成功地將本季度的現金支出控制在收入的 10% 以下，儘管收入總體下降，但實際上只比去年略好一些。以美元計算，調整後的現金支出從年初至今和季度來看均同比下降。因此，我認為我們正在不斷地控制我們的可控因素，並且我們肯定會在今年下半年和未來投入大量精力，因為我們將繼續提高效率我們的組織。

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson from Mizuho.

您的下一個問題來自瑞穗的克里斯托弗·帕金森。

Great... So when we take a step back and just look at the potash markets with the recently Chinese contract and a little bit of the rebound in Brazilian spot, it seems like Southeast Asia is a bit out of whack and due to the recent declines over the last, let's say, 4 to 6 weeks. At what point in time would your team or Canpotex expect a fairly robust demand response. Obviously, there are a bunch of other moving factors, inventories, weather, crop outlooks, so on and so forth. But in terms of the eventual rebound of the potash market, how is your team currently thinking about that as a response to lower prices?

太棒了……所以，當我們退後一步，看看最近中國合同和巴西現貨的一點點反彈的鉀肥市場時，東南亞似乎有點不正常，並且由於最近的比方說，過去4 到6 週內有所下降。您的團隊或 Canpotex 預計在什麼時間點會出現相當強勁的需求響應。顯然，還有許多其他影響因素，如庫存、天氣、作物前景等等。但就鉀肥市場的最終反彈而言，您的團隊目前如何考慮這是對價格下跌的回應？

Yes. Great. Thanks, Chris. And so you're absolutely right. We have seen sort of illiquid trade in Southeast Asia for some time for standard grade potash. A part of that was held up by drawing down inventories, part of it, waiting on the China contract and setting that benchmark. And -- but here we are. So maybe I'll hand it over to Mark to provide some more detail.

是的。偉大的。謝謝，克里斯。所以你是絕對正確的。一段時間以來，我們在東南亞看到標準級鉀肥的流動性不足。其中一部分是通過減少庫存來實現的，一部分是等待中國合同並設定基準。而且——但是我們到了。所以也許我會把它交給馬克來提供更多細節。

Yes. Thanks, Chris. So look, I think first above all else would just say we're very encouraged by the continued stabilization and recovery of demand, particularly in North America and Brazil, which are obviously really important markets for nutrients. So I'll just maybe say a few words about North America and then talk internationally as it's all part of the bigger picture here. So as you heard Ken say in our commentary, we saw a record Q2 for domestic sales and really strong and rapid customer engagement as spring activity unfolded in the U.S. As we talked about previously, Q2 was more a just-in-time basis. But following Q2 in North America, we really did see most of our major customers with inventory levels that were at least at multiyear lows, if not the lowest levels they've ever had following the spring season. So you've got an attractive crop price backdrop, the potential for early fall activity, and this really has set up for what we've seen be an exceptionally strong fill program that we've just laid out. As Ken said, we saw really strong demand. In fact, we call it overwhelming demand for customers on the fill. We closed the order book on Q3 at the 3.70 per short ton level and have upped our reference price for Q4 by the $30 per short ton. And in fact, just in the last 24 to 48 hours here, we've seen customers come back with some small volumes and transacted at that $400 per short ton level in the Midwest.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。因此，我認為首先我想說的是，我們對需求的持續穩定和復蘇感到非常鼓舞，特別是在北美和巴西，這顯然是非常重要的營養素市場。因此，我可能會簡單介紹一下北美，然後談談國際範圍，因為這都是這里大局的一部分。因此，正如您在我們的評論中聽到Ken 在我們的評論中所說的那樣，隨著美國春季活動的展開，我們看到第二季度的國內銷售創紀錄，並且客戶參與度非常強勁和快速。正如我們之前談到的，第二季度更多的是即時基礎。但在北美第二季度之後，我們確實看到大多數主要客戶的庫存水平至少處於多年來的低點，即使不是春季後的最低水平。因此，你有一個有吸引力的作物價格背景，早秋活動的潛力，這確實為我們剛剛制定的異常強勁的填充計劃奠定了基礎。正如肯所說，我們看到了非常強勁的需求。事實上，我們稱其為滿足客戶壓倒性的需求。我們在第三季度以每短噸 3.70 美元的水平關閉了訂單簿，並將第四季度的參考價格上調了每短噸 30 美元。事實上，就在過去 24 到 48 小時內，我們看到客戶帶著一些小批量回來，並在中西部以每短噸 400 美元的價格進行交易。

So we're encouraged by what's going on in North America. I think moving internationally just to talk about a couple of the markets that are important to Canpotex, all of which you mentioned. Let's start with Brazil. Brazil really has led the demand recovery internationally. It's been the strongest overseas market since the signing of the Chinese contract. I think there was an anticipation that contract would put a floor under some of these markets, and we've seen that in Brazil from a low of 310 or 320 around the time of the contract. Today, the industry publications would call the market 350 to 360. And as Ken said, the pace of crop input demand, we think, is a little behind last year. So that sets up well for more normal consumption through the second half of the year. So we see things as being on track in Brazil. In China, with the signing of the contract, we actually saw good shipments in the first half of the year into China, and the contract has kept those moving. So as you would have seen in our materials, we've upped our demand estimate for China this year to 15 million to 16 million tons. And -- we've seen strong consumption domestically in nitrogen and phosphate, and we also think that bodes well for shipments into China in the second half of the year.

因此，我們對北美正在發生的事情感到鼓舞。我認為走向國際只是為了談談對 Canpotex 來說很重要的幾個市場，所有這些市場都是你提到的。讓我們從巴西開始。巴西確實引領了國際需求的複蘇。這是自中國合同簽訂以來最強勁的海外市場。我認為，人們預計合同將為其中一些市場提供一個底線，我們已經看到巴西的情況在合同簽訂期間從 310 或 320 的低點開始。今天，行業出版物將市場稱為 350 至 360。正如 Ken 所說，我們認為農作物投入需求的步伐有點落後於去年。因此，這為下半年更加正常的消費奠定了良好的基礎。所以我們認為巴西的事情正在步入正軌。在中國，隨著合同的簽署，我們實際上看到上半年向中國的出貨量良好，而合同使這些貨物繼續運轉。正如您在我們的材料中看到的那樣，我們將今年對中國的需求估計上調至 1500 萬噸至 1600 萬噸。而且——我們看到國內氮肥和磷酸鹽的消費強勁，我們也認為這對今年下半年運往中國來說是個好兆頭。

So again, consumption in China looks on track. The other important market to Canpotex, as you mentioned, is Southeast Asia. And Southeast Asia is the market that has been a little more varied and more protracted in its recovery versus other markets. This was likely due to a few factors in our view, one being the delayed timing of the Chinese contract. Buyers wanting to see some stability in global benchmark pricing and then some volatility in palm oil pricing and key crops. Just in recent weeks, we have seen some signs of demand reemerging in those markets. And even within Southeast Asia, it's a mixed picture.

中國的消費再次看起來步入正軌。正如您提到的，Canpotex 的另一個重要市場是東南亞。與其他市場相比，東南亞市場的複蘇更加多樣化且持續時間更長。我們認為這可能是由於幾個因素造成的，其中之一是中國合同的延遲。買家希望看到全球基准定價保持一定的穩定性，然後看到棕櫚油和主要作物的定價出現一定的波動。就在最近幾週，我們看到這些市場重新出現了一些需求跡象。即使在東南亞，情況也好壞參半。

So in markets like Vietnam and Thailand, we've seen prices anywhere from the 330 level up to almost the $400 level with more stability. And I think Indonesia and Malaysia are taking a little longer to recover, but we do see demand picking up in Q4. And Chris, as we move into 2024, we would expect some recovery and stabilization in Southeast Asia generally. So as I said to start in my comments, I think we're generally encouraged by the direction of the potash market and the rebound in demand.

因此，在越南和泰國等市場，我們看到價格從 330 美元一直到幾乎 400 美元，而且更加穩定。我認為印度尼西亞和馬來西亞需要更長的時間才能恢復，但我們確實看到第四季度需求回升。克里斯，隨著我們進入 2024 年，我們預計東南亞總體上會出現一些復甦和穩定。正如我在評論中所說，我認為我們普遍對鉀肥市場的方向和需求反彈感到鼓舞。

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Isakson from Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Ben Isakson。

One more on the potash expansion, if I may. So I actually like it. I think it's a good move to pause the potash expansion, but I don't fully understand the decision-making process. When you talked about a strong Q2 in North America. Brazil is starting to come back. But that's all short term in this year. And even if there is weakness, you're dealing with it by curtailing your production. When we think about long term, structurally, nothing has really changed. The demand growth trajectory is the same. We haven't seen any meaningful change out of Belarus or Russia. BHP is kind of still on track, et cetera. So what actually has changed from a long-term outlook to pause increasing capability to 18 million tonnes. And if I can just sneak in a clarification question. You took a $400 million to $500 million impairment on LatAm retail. And one of the things you referenced was moderating long-term growth assumptions. Does that change your strategy in Brazil retail in terms of your investment spending over the next few years?

如果可以的話，我再來談談鉀肥擴張。所以我其實很喜歡它。我認為暫停鉀肥擴張是一個很好的舉措，但我並不完全理解決策過程。當您談到北美第二季度的強勁表現時。巴西開始復蘇。但這在今年都是短期的。即使存在弱點，你也會通過減少產量來應對。當我們從長遠來看，從結構上看，沒有什麼真正改變。需求增長軌跡是相同的。我們還沒有看到白俄羅斯或俄羅斯發生任何有意義的變化。必和必拓仍處於正軌，等等。那麼，從長期前景來看，實際上發生了什麼變化，暫停將產能增加到 1800 萬噸。如果我可以偷偷地提出一個澄清問題。您對拉丁美洲零售業進行了 4 億至 5 億美元的減值。您提到的其中一件事是緩和長期增長假設。這是否會改變您未來幾年在巴西零售業的投資支出策略？

Yes. Great, Ben. Thank you for the question. And I'll maybe say a few words on the potash piece and hand it over to Mark and Jason to expand on that. But we do see demand to sort of trend line -- return to trend line growth in demand in potash. It's at 2.53% average annual growth rates. And again, returning to that 70 million to 75 million ton range over the next few years. And if you look at the market share that we've picked up over the last few years and expect to maintain that has us at that mid-cycle of 14 million to 15 million tonnes. There still continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty on the supply side of the equation. And the reality is that while we have seen Russian and Belarusian volumes coming out of the region, -- the region is still down 30%-ish from 2021 levels, about 8 million tonnes. And that's a little bit more than we had forecasted at the start of this year, about 1 million tons. That said, that's also being offset by some of the challenges for Canadian producers off the West Coast. So our assumption today as we looked at 18 million tons and the ability of the Russian Belarusian producers to get to export markets, some of that volume is coming back. That's certainly happening, but it is also true that there is a significant volume that's still challenged.

是的。太棒了，本。感謝你的提問。我可能會就鉀鹽部分說幾句話，然後將其交給馬克和傑森進行擴展。但我們確實看到了某種趨勢線的需求——鉀肥需求回歸趨勢線增長。年均增長率為2.53%。未來幾年，產量將再次回到 7000 萬噸至 7500 萬噸的範圍。如果你看看我們在過去幾年中獲得的市場份額，並希望保持這一市場份額，那麼我們的產量就處於 1400 萬噸至 1500 萬噸的中間週期。供應方面仍然存在相當大的不確定性。現實情況是，儘管我們看到俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的出口量來自該地區，但該地區的產量仍比 2021 年的水平下降了 30% 左右，約為 800 萬噸。這比我們今年年初的預測要多一點，大約是 100 萬噸。也就是說，這也被西海岸加拿大生產商面臨的一些挑戰所抵消。因此，我們今天的假設是，當我們考慮 1800 萬噸以及俄羅斯白俄羅斯生產商進入出口市場的能力時，其中一些數量正在回歸。這確實正在發生，但也確實有很大一部分仍然面臨挑戰。

And again, this year, about 8 million tonnes. We see that volume returning to the market over the next few years. We do, but that has us completing in-flight projects to the end of this year. And again, with the capability to supply that 15.5 million tons, meet the needs of our customers, but always preserving some flex capacity to search tonnes into the market, which we've done in the past and created immense value when we do that because there continues to be this really significant uncertainty on the supply side of the equation. Mark, Jason, did you want to provide more color?

今年，產量再次達到約 800 萬噸。我們預計這一數量將在未來幾年內重返市場。我們確實這樣做了，但這使我們能夠在今年年底之前完成飛行中的項目。再說一次，我們有能力供應 1550 萬噸，滿足客戶的需求，但始終保留一些靈活的產能，以便在市場上尋找噸位，我們過去就這樣做過，並在這樣做時創造了巨大的價值，因為等式的供應方面仍然存在這種真正重大的不確定性。馬克、傑森，你們想提供更多顏色嗎？

Look, I think Ken covered it really well, Ben. I think the only thing I would add is maybe just to put a few numbers to the equation. I mean, obviously, we responded quite quickly last year when we saw an unprecedented global disruption in supply at the time we were talking about this last year, we probably saw on a run rate basis, volumes out of the former Soviet Union on a run rate annualized basis, we're probably down about 13 million tons. And so in that type of environment, we obviously look to quickly mobilize and understand what we could do from a supply perspective. I think one of the other things that we did see in that environment was that in a higher-than-normal price environment because of the panic buying, we did see demand be temporarily impacted. And we mentioned there's going to be some period of time to rebuild back in the trend levels.

聽著，我認為肯講得很好，本。我想我唯一要添加的可能就是在方程中添加一些數字。我的意思是，很明顯，去年我們的反應相當迅速，當時我們在去年討論這個問題時看到了前所未有的全球供應中斷，我們可能會看到前蘇聯的出貨量在不斷增加按年率計算，我們可能會減少約1300 萬噸。因此，在這種環境下，我們顯然希望快速動員並從供應角度了解我們可以做什麼。我認為我們在這種環境下確實看到的另一件事是，由於恐慌性購買而導致價格高於正常水平，我們確實看到需求受到暫時影響。我們提到，將需要一段時間才能恢復到趨勢水平。

So I think the simplest explanation for the company is really this is an optimization of capital deployment, how we deploy our resources and how we staff our operations. Our long-term belief in the fundamentals of the potash business have really not changed, but it's really a decision on the timing of how we deploy that capital, what resources we carry at the assets. And ultimately, our go-to-market strategy hasn't changed. We're going to supply what our customers need. And so as Ken said, we'll respond to market conditions. But we think the capacity we've built through the work that we've done provides us ample flexibility, at least for the foreseeable near term to meet that market demand.

因此，我認為對公司來說最簡單的解釋實際上是對資本配置、我們如何部署資源以及我們如何為運營人員配備的優化。我們對鉀肥業務基本面的長期信念確實沒有改變，但這實際上取決於我們如何部署資本的時機以及我們在資產中攜帶哪些資源。最終，我們的進入市場策略沒有改變。我們將供應客戶所需的東西。正如肯所說，我們將根據市場情況做出反應。但我們認為，通過我們所做的工作建立的能力為我們提供了足夠的靈活性，至少在可預見的短期內可以滿足市場需求。

Yes. Great. So thanks, Mark. And with respect to the question about Latin America, I mean the reality is that the Brazilian market continues to grow. It continues to be one of the most exciting agricultural markets on the planet, and we have a meaningful presence there. As it relates to our plans, I'll pass over to Jeff, but really it is about pausing on further acquisitions as we integrate these 9 acquisitions that we have done and get our cost model and our operating model right, therefore, certainly in these times where we've seen this extraordinary volatility, compression in crop margins and movement in interest rates. But Jeff, over to you.

是的。偉大的。謝謝，馬克。關於拉丁美洲的問題，我的意思是現實是巴西市場持續增長。它仍然是地球上最令人興奮的農產品市場之一，我們在那裡有著有意義的存在。因為它與我們的計劃有關，我將轉給傑夫，但實際上這是關於暫停進一步的收購，因為我們整合了我們已經完成的這9 項收購，並讓我們的成本模型和運營模式正確，因此，當然在這些我們目睹了這種異常波動、作物利潤壓縮和利率變動的時代。但是傑夫，交給你了。

Yes. And Ken, I'll just reflect and echo the comments you made. I think we mentioned several times this morning, the factors, and there were several factors that led up to our impairment volatility, much more severe volatility across the fertilizer segment and Chemistry segment than we saw in North America and Australia. And again, the rise in interest rates were much more abrupt there as well and which led to a lot of devaluation in inventory and such. And again, as Ken said, we still see long term -- we still believe in the long-term growth prospects for Brazil and it's expected to be the fastest-growing ag market in the world. But if we look at where we are today in the near term, we are going to pause additional investments as we really focus hard on integrating the 9 businesses that we bought over the last 3 years. And when we say integrate, and that's from a system standpoint, that's from a standpoint of procurement, and that's the standpoint of integrating the ALPI businesses into that base business. We're going to focus on driving down our costs, and we're going to focus on growing our business organically as this market stabilizes. And I might add that we have seen positive signs over the last several weeks of growers back engaging into the marketplace as we go into their very heavy spring season for planting.

是的。肯，我只會反思並回應你的評論。我想我們今天早上多次提到了這些因素，有幾個因素導致了我們的減值波動，化肥部門和化學部門的波動比我們在北美和澳大利亞看到的要嚴重得多。而且，那裡的利率上升也更加突然，導致庫存等大幅貶值。正如肯所說，我們仍然著眼長遠——我們仍然相信巴西的長期增長前景，預計它將成為世界上增長最快的農業市場。但如果我們看看我們目前的近期狀況，我們將暫停額外投資，因為我們真正專注於整合過去 3 年收購的 9 項業務。當我們說整合時，這是從系統的角度來看，這是從採購的角度來看，這是將 ALPI 業務整合到基礎業務的角度。我們將專注於降低成本，隨著市場穩定，我們將專注於有機增長我們的業務。我想補充一點，過去幾週我們看到了積極的跡象，隨著我們進入非常繁重的春季種植季節，種植者重新回到市場。

Yes. Ben, maybe I'll just add, Pedro here that Brazil is a market characterized by very long cash conversion cycles. And as we accelerate growth, we actually accelerate the investment in working capital and the carrying cost at this point in time is punished by the highest real interest rates in the world, which is in Brazil. So therefore, as we see now interest rates starting to abate, I mean there was a central bank -- Brazilian Central Bank decision running to reduce that in the future of pricing further reductions. It is good to wait a little bit until that becomes less punishing because otherwise, we're going to be growing and all the carrying costs and working capital is going to enroll all of our margins. So that's a little bit of what's in our mind as well as we think about growth in Brazil.

是的。 Ben，也許我會補充一點，Pedro，巴西是一個現金轉換週期很長的市場。當我們加速增長時，我們實際上加速了營運資本的投資，而此時的持有成本受到世界上最高的實際利率（巴西）的懲罰。因此，正如我們現在看到的利率開始下降，我的意思是有一家央行——巴西央行決定在未來定價進一步降息時降低利率。最好等一下，直到這種情況變得不那麼懲罰，否則，我們將會增長，所有的持有成本和營運資金都將計入我們所有的利潤。這就是我們對巴西增長的一些想法和想法。

Your next question comes from the line of Jacob Bout from CIBC.

您的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Jacob Bout。

The suspension of the clean ammonia plant in Geismar, is this just a cost issue? Maybe just talk a bit how strategically important that clean nitrogen is to Nutrien and what needs to change for further investment in that area?

蓋斯馬爾清潔氨工廠的暫停，這僅僅是成本問題嗎？也許只是談談清潔氮氣對 Nutrien 的戰略重要性以及在該領域的進一步投資需要改變什麼？

Yes, Jacob. The reality is that we do believe there will be an opportunity in the ammonia business, the clean ammonia business in the future. And of course, that's where we talked about marine field. That's where we talk about energy, hydrogen economy. But it is also true that the timing of the evolution of that demand is unknown. It's a bit in question. So we're watching that very closely, and that could be something that has us return to that conversation at some point in the future. In the meantime, I think we have been fairly -- quite clear that we were heading toward a final investment decision in the latter part of this year and working towards a Class III engineering cost estimate for the project. And as we did that, we did see some cost escalation through that Class III estimate about 15% to 20%, which when we rounded up all those numbers, we came to the conclusion that at this point in time from a capital allocation point of view and preserving flexibility into the future that now wasn't the time. And so while we'll continue to monitor that -- those markets for clean ammonia and certainly that opportunity, we came to the conclusion just the way costs are going, that we'll have better opportunities for that capital in the near term.

是的，雅各布。現實是，我們確實相信未來氨業務、清潔氨業務將會有機會。當然，這就是我們談論海洋領域的地方。這就是我們談論能源、氫經濟的地方。但確實，這種需求演變的時間尚不清楚。有點疑問了。所以我們正在非常密切地關注這一點，這可能會讓我們在未來的某個時候回到這一對話。與此同時，我認為我們已經相當清楚，我們將在今年下半年做出最終投資決定，並努力對該項目進行 III 級工程成本估算。當我們這樣做時，我們確實看到了一些成本上升，通過 III 類估計大約 15% 到 20%，當我們對所有這些數字進行四捨五入時，我們得出的結論是，此時從資本配置點展望未來並保持靈活性，但現在還不是時候。因此，雖然我們將繼續監控清潔氨的市場，當然還有機會，但我們得出的結論是，隨著成本的變化，我們在短期內將有更好的資本機會。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

Yes. Thank you... So your outlook for potash supply this year is nearly a 10% cut from 2021. You had a greater than that cut in global supply in 2022. And yet pricing right now is pretty underwhelming given 2 years of that level of supply cut. What I'm wondering from you is you just cut your expected demand for potash capacity expansions, you're halting your project. Do you have a view that the old adage of, oh, you can skip potash onetime, and that's it, and that it's not as discretionary after that? Has that changed? Do you think that the world really doesn't need 70 million tons of potash on the ground? Or are we really facing potentially some yield impacts from this? It's a bit of a head scratcher.

是的。謝謝...所以你們對今年鉀肥供應的預期是比2021 年減少近10%。2022 年全球供應量的削減幅度比2022 年還要大。但考慮到兩年來的這一水平，目前的定價相當平淡。供應減少。我想知道的是，你們只是削減了鉀肥產能擴張的預期需求，就停止了項目。您是否認為古老的格言是，哦，您可以一次性跳過鉀肥，僅此而已，之後就不再那麼隨意了？那改變了嗎？您認為世界真的不需要地面上的 7000 萬噸鉀肥嗎？或者我們真的面臨著潛在的一些產量影響嗎？這有點讓人頭疼。

Right. Steve, thanks for the question. And absolutely, what you're describing, when we talk about extraordinary events, I think that's what you're describing here in terms of the volatility that we've seen in inventory levels and buying behaviors and that also therefore culminates in price. Our view has not changed that potash is an essential crop nutrient and that we have a lot of people to feed on this planet and that that's why we talk about a return to historical trend lines growth in potash demand. So -- but maybe I'll hand it over to Jason just talk about yield impacts and the agronomy side of it.

正確的。史蒂夫，謝謝你的提問。當然，當我們談論非同尋常的事件時，我認為您所描述的就是我們在庫存水平和購買行為中看到的波動性，因此也最終導致了價格波動。我們的觀點沒有改變，即鉀肥是一種重要的農作物營養素，我們有很多人需要養活這個星球，這就是為什麼我們談論鉀肥需求增長恢復到歷史趨勢線。所以——但也許我會把它交給傑森，只談論產量影響及其農學方面。

Steve, I think it's really difficult to nail down the precise yield impact of changes in potash application rates over time. But what we do know is where yields are at, and we know that weather has played a pretty key role in driving yields on a global basis and in [Indiscernible] growing regions around the world below trend levels over the past year. We also know that potash applications are important for drug resistance and for nitrogen use efficiency and a whole number of factors that are important for the growth of the crop. And if we look at core yields, for example, in last year, we're the second lowest level versus trend in the past 20 years and definitely could say that part of the struggle with draw resistance over the past 2 years could be the new train use that's taking place. And so it's difficult to nail down the impact of potash applications, and you don't know what you're losing, but we do know that yields have been below trend and definitely impacted by weather conditions.

史蒂夫，我認為很難確定鉀肥施用量隨時間變化對產量的精確影響。但我們所知道的是單產的情況，而且我們知道天氣在推動全球單產以及過去一年中世界各地[音頻不清晰]種植地區的單產低於趨勢水平方面發揮了相當關鍵的作用。我們還知道，鉀肥的施用對於抗藥性和氮利用效率以及對作物生長很重要的許多因素都很重要。例如，如果我們看一下去年的核心收益率，相對於過去 20 年來的趨勢，我們處於第二低的水平，並且絕對可以說，過去 2 年與阻力的鬥爭部分可能是新的正在發生的火車使用。因此，很難確定鉀肥應用的影響，而且你不知道自己會損失什麼，但我們確實知道產量一直低於趨勢，並且肯定受到天氣條件的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Wondering if you could just bridge your nitrogen expectations for the back half of the year in terms of what you were expecting 3 months ago in the prior guidance versus what you're expecting now, just given some of the changes in the market and pricing dynamics between then and now?

考慮到市場和定價動態的一些變化，您是否可以根據 3 個月前先前指導中的預期與現在的預期來調整下半年的氮預期從那時到現在？

You bet. Thanks, Vincent. Yes, a lot of moving parts there, but I'll hand it over to Mark to just walk through how we're seeing it.

你打賭。謝謝，文森特。是的，那裡有很多變化的部分，但我會把它交給馬克來簡單介紹一下我們是如何看待它的。

Yes. Vincent. So first, just bridging from last guidance to this guidance, I would say, obviously, we've got one more quarter behind us in terms of actual. So the actuals versus expectations at that point would play a part of the factor. But maybe I can just talk about what's embedded in the guidance for the second half of the year as we look forward. So as Ken mentioned in his comments, we have seen very good participation on fill programs, not only on potash, but obviously, nitrogen and phosphate as well. So across the board, we were part of that. We rolled out a typical fill program schedule in Q3. A lot of those programs took place between late June and early July, and we've layered in some spot tons since that time. So when you think about our ag nitrogen book for the second half, we are about 65% to 70% sold at this point as a result of those programs. So that is embedded in our guidance. And then on price, I would say that today, on urea and UAN, we are above on a spot basis, what's implied at the midpoint of our guidance. But on ammonia, we do have a view that we're going to see some firming from current spot levels into the back half of the year. So from a general price in terms of our commitments, that's where we sit relative to our guidance...

是的。文森特.首先，從上一個指導到本指導，我想說，顯然，就實際情況而言，我們還落後了四分之一。因此，當時的實際情況與預期情況將成為影響因素的一部分。但也許我可以談談我們展望的下半年指導中包含的內容。正如肯在評論中提到的那樣，我們看到了填充計劃的良好參與，不僅是鉀肥，顯然還有氮肥和磷酸鹽。所以總的來說，我們是其中的一部分。我們在第三季度推出了典型的填充計劃時間表。其中很多項目都是在六月底到七月初之間進行的，從那時起我們已經分層了一些現貨。因此，當您考慮下半年我們的農業氮書籍時，由於這些計劃，我們目前已售出約 65% 至 70%。因此，這已納入我們的指導中。然後在價格方面，我想說，今天，在尿素和尿素方面，我們的現貨價格高於我們指導的中點所隱含的價格。但就氨而言，我們確實認為，到今年下半年，我們將看到當前現貨水平有所走強。因此，從我們承諾的總體價格來看，這就是我們相對於我們的指導的位置......

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

A 2-part question. In the quarter, your crop chemical revenues were about flat year-over-year, but your gross profits were maybe down $125 million. There was a similar pattern in the first quarter. Can you talk about that? The second part of the question is you say your mid-cycle EBITDA of $7 billion to $7.5 billion. And in -- I don't know, May of this year, I think that's where consensus estimates were for Nutrien. And so you were trading at a mid-cycle multiple on mid-cycle earnings. So how does the company create value over time when it seems that there is like a normal fair value calculation at the current price.

一個由 2 部分組成的問題。本季度，您的農作物化學品收入與去年同期基本持平，但毛利潤可能下降了 1.25 億美元。第一季度也出現了類似的情況。你能談談嗎？問題的第二部分是你所說的中期 EBITDA 為 70 億至 75 億美元。我不知道，今年五月，我認為這就是 Nutrien 的共識估計。因此，您以中期收益的中期市盈率進行交易。那麼，噹噹前價格似乎存在正常的公允價值計算時，公司如何隨著時間的推移創造價值。

Great. Thanks, Jeff. So maybe I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi to talk about crop chemistry and then we'll get on to your second question about our mid-cycle assumptions.

偉大的。謝謝，傑夫。因此，也許我會將其交給傑夫·塔西（Jeff Tarsi）來討論作物化學，然後我們將繼續討論關於我們的中期假設的第二個問題。

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. And you're correct. If you look at the revenue line on our craft chemistry, particularly across the first half of the year, it's about flat compared to a year ago. And keep in mind that we've seen a drastic reset in valuations across 4 major commodity active ingredients, Glyphosate, Glufosinate, Klaipeda and Paraquat from a revenue standpoint. If we look at the margin side of it, we actually saw -- we came into the year predicting there would be a very sizable reset on our crop protection margins from a year ago. The margins we saw in '22 were unprecedented because of the supply chain issues and tightness with inventory in the market. Obviously, that supply chain issues have eased up quite a bit today and much more normal. If I look at our Crop Protection margins in the second quarter, they were 23%. And if I look back to historical crop protection margins before we saw this run up, this is slightly elevated to what we would consider normal crop protection margins. So we just brought ourselves back to a more normalized margin as it relates to that crop protection segment.

是的。謝謝，傑夫。你是對的。如果你看看我們工藝化學的收入線，特別是今年上半年，你會發現與一年前相比基本持平。請記住，從收入的角度來看，我們已經看到 4 種主要商品活性成分（草甘膦、草銨膦、克萊佩達和百草枯）的估值大幅重置。如果我們看一下利潤率方面，我們實際上看到 - 我們進入這一年時預測我們的作物保護利潤率將比一年前大幅重置。由於供應鏈問題和市場庫存緊張，我們在 22 年看到的利潤率是前所未有的。顯然，供應鏈問題今天已經緩解了很多，變得更加正常。如果我看看第二季度我們的作物保護利潤率為 23%。如果我回顧一下歷史作物保護邊際在我們看到這種上漲之前的情況，就會發現這略高於我們所認為的正常作物保護邊際。因此，我們只是讓自己回到了與作物保護領域相關的更正常的利潤水平。

Thanks, Jeff. And then, Jeff, with respect to your second question. So earlier this year, the industry was facing this extraordinary volatility. And now as we see demand stabilize and we've talked about that and looking at our new mid-cycle assumptions and our growth factors within those mid-cycle assumptions, it really is, when we talk about potash volumes, this return to trend line global demand growth 70 million, 75 million tons. And our ability to supply into that 14 million to 15 million tons, maintaining a 20% market share. We are completing a round of nitrogen brownfield expansions. Geismar be done this year and several others over the next couple of years. We have an assumption of 11.5 million to 12 million tons of nitrogen with operating rates of 92% to 94%.

謝謝，傑夫。然後，傑夫，關於你的第二個問題。今年早些時候，該行業面臨著這種非同尋常的波動。現在，當我們看到需求穩定時，我們已經討論過這一點，並考慮了我們新的周期中期假設以及這些週期中期假設中的增長因素，當我們談論鉀肥產量時，確實是回歸趨勢線全球需求增長7000萬、7500萬噸。我們有能力供應 1400 萬噸至 1500 萬噸，保持 20% 的市場份額。我們正在完成一輪氮棕地擴建。 Geismar 將於今年完成，其他幾個項目將在未來幾年內完成。我們假設氮氣產量為 1150 萬噸至 1200 萬噸，開工率為 92% 至 94%。

So there's opportunities to grow there. We assume some curtailments -- ongoing curtailments in Trinidad, but nevertheless, growth in nitrogen then in retail, we continue to focus on growing our Loveland products business. We continue to focus on our supply chain. Nutrien Financial has been a growth vector for us and our digital investments as well. So we have a number of opportunities to grow this company. But importantly, as we talk about capital allocation and maintaining flexibility there, we've also demonstrated, certainly since the inception of Nutrien over the last 5 years, significant redistribution of cash to shareholders. If we look at what we've done, it's been a 23% reduction in the share count and a 33% increase in dividends per share. And we'll continue to sustain our assets. We'll continue to high-grade our investment portfolio, but we'll also continue to return significant cash to shareholders via the dividend and then opportunistically looking at share buybacks.

所以那裡有成長的機會。我們假設有一些削減——特立尼達持續削減，但儘管如此，零售業的氮肥增長，我們繼續專注於發展我們的拉夫蘭產品業務。我們繼續關注我們的供應鏈。 Nutrien Financial 一直是我們和我們的數字投資的增長載體。因此，我們有很多機會來發展這家公司。但重要的是，當我們談論資本配置和保持靈活性時，我們還展示了（當然自 Nutrien 過去 5 年成立以來）向股東進行了大量現金再分配。如果我們看看我們所做的事情，就會發現股票數量減少了 23%，每股股息增加了 33%。我們將繼續維持我們的資產。我們將繼續提高投資組合的評級，但我們也將繼續通過股息向股東返還大量現金，然後伺機考慮股票回購。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

I was hoping to dig in a little more on the retail assumptions in the back half of the year and just make sure I'm clear on what is assumed from a market and gross margin perspective in South America that still has some higher cost inventory to work through. What is assumed from a sell-through perspective on the Crop Chem side, especially as you think about producer rebate programs that I imagine won't be hit given what the sales of many of the crop chem producers have looked like in the second quarter? And just the implications that, that would have as we think about moving into '24 outside of some of the margin noise that you experienced this year?

我希望在今年下半年進一步深入研究零售假設，並確保我清楚從南美市場和毛利率角度的假設，南美仍然有一些成本較高的庫存工作通過。從農作物化學方面的銷售角度來看，特別是當您考慮生產商回扣計劃時，考慮到許多農作物化學生產商第二季度的銷售情況，我認為該計劃不會受到影響，會發生什麼情況？當我們考慮進入 24 年，除了今年經歷的一些利潤噪音之外，這會產生什麼影響？

Thanks for the question, Adam. I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi.

謝謝你的提問，亞當。我會把它交給傑夫·塔西。

Yes, if we deal with the question around the second half of the year, look, the majority -- the greatest majority of anything we would have pulled back in the second half of the year is around the notion of continued softness in the Latin American market. There is still some high-priced inventory because growers buying patterns change there over the last 12 to 14 months, we're carrying, and I think most of the industry is carrying more inventory into the spring side season than they want to. So we got to work through that. So that's where the majority of any pullback we have. We also factored in a bit of weather into our assumptions for the second half of the year as well. As you would know July would have been the hottest month on record, I think across North America at a very key stage of crop maturity and such, especially as it relates to corn. So we kind of factored in some things, how that might affect fund side and ag side applications and such. But we also -- if I look at the back half, I also look at the fact that this crop is maturing very rapidly right now.

是的，如果我們在下半年處理這個問題，看，大多數——我們在今年下半年撤回的大部分措施都是圍繞拉丁美洲持續疲軟的概念展開的。市場。仍然有一些高價庫存，因為過去 12 到 14 個月種植者的購買模式發生了變化，我們持有的庫存，我認為大多數行業在春季側季節持有的庫存比他們想要的要多。所以我們必須解決這個問題。這就是我們大部分回調的原因。我們還在下半年的假設中考慮了一些天氣因素。如您所知，七月將是有記錄以來最熱的月份，我認為整個北美正處於作物成熟等的非常關鍵階段，尤其是與玉米相關的階段。因此，我們考慮了一些因素，這可能會如何影響基金方和農業方的申請等。但我們也 - 如果我看後半部分，我也會看到這樣一個事實：這種作物現在正在快速成熟。

And I think that leads to a very -- the possibility of a very open fall in North America. And so we're expecting some -- we're expecting heavy application. We think growers will find pricing on P&K very attractive for the fall as well. As I think you asked the question, is it related to suppliers and inventory. And look, we've worked hard to bring our inventory down. I think most of the industry has been in a strategy of destocking, whether it's on the nutrients or whether it's on crop protection. And from a crop protection that we ended the month of June down on our crop protection inventory year-over-year. We expect that to look even better as we get through the third quarter and we get through fund side and (inaudible) ag side applications.

我認為這會導致北美出現非常明顯的下跌的可能性。所以我們期待一些——我們期待大量的應用。我們認為種植者會發現 P&K 秋季的定價也非常有吸引力。我想你問的問題是與供應商和庫存有關嗎？看，我們一直在努力降低庫存。我認為大多數行業都採取了去庫存策略，無論是在營養素方面還是在作物保護方面。從作物保護來看，截至六月份，我們的作物保護庫存同比下降。我們預計，隨著第三季度的結束以及基金方面和（聽不清）農業方面的申請的完成，情況會更好。

As it relates to purchases for the remainder of the year, I think I mentioned earlier that the supply constraints have eased considerably over the last 12 months, and I don't see it that a lot of people are in a mood to add a lot of inventory in the back half of the year as it relates to crop protection. So we'll have to let the rest of the season play out. But I know that kind of be the frame of mind we would be in right now, and I don't think it will be different than a bunch of the industry.

由於它與今年剩餘時間的採購有關，我想我之前提到過，過去 12 個月供應限制已大大緩解，而且我不認為很多人有心情增加大量庫存下半年的庫存與作物保護有關。所以我們必須讓本賽季剩下的比賽繼續進行。但我知道這就是我們現在的心態，而且我認為這與整個行業不會有什麼不同。

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Garchitorena from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的理查德·加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

Great... Just wanted to circle back on the Geismar plant deferral. Just wanted to make sure that in terms of the plant economics, this is probably more a function of timing as to when demand returns. Or is it overall cash cost that's increased not economically attractive? Because I would have thought the IRA bill would have provided some support for that. And then also just a follow-up. Is there interest from potential partners or maybe JVs that could potentially move this project forward.

太好了……只是想回顧一下蓋斯瑪工廠的延期。只是想確保就工廠經濟而言，這可能更多地取決於需求何時恢復的時間。或者增加的總體現金成本是否在經濟上沒有吸引力？因為我本以為愛爾蘭共和軍法案會為此提供一些支持。然後也只是後續行動。潛在合作夥伴或合資企業是否有興趣推動該項目向前發展？

Thanks for the question, Richard. And it is the combination of the evolution of those end markets, our view of capital and cost today and looking at our capital allocation priorities in the near to medium term and creating that flexibility that we talked about earlier. But I'll hand it over to Trevor Williams, our President for nitrogen business and then Mark to provide a bit more color.

謝謝你的提問，理查德。它是這些終端市場的演變、我們今天對資本和成本的看法、我們在中短期內的資本配置優先事項以及創造我們之前談到的靈活性的結合。但我會將其交給我們氮氣業務總裁特雷弗·威廉姆斯 (Trevor Williams)，然後交給馬克 (Mark) 提供更多信息。

Yes. So thanks for the question. In a couple of comments. Obviously, the IRA in the Q45, a bit of big improvement in terms of being able to try and justify some of these projects. But we look at an overall perspective in terms of the IRR that was built in when we look at our capital allocation decisions. So really, at this point, while that is obviously a bit of a tailwind or improvement. It really didn't get us over the hurdle in terms of the economics of the project at this point. The second part is a great question, and that's something that we'll continue to do. We'll talk with our partners, both on the technology side as well as on the downstream side and evaluate opportunities. But at this point, we really look at the delay, probably being at least a minimum of 24 months. But to your point, we would continue to look at opportunities from a partnership perspective going forward.

是的。謝謝你的提問。在一些評論中。顯然，Q45 中的 IRA 在能夠嘗試並證明其中一些項目的合理性方面取得了很大的進步。但當我們考慮資本配置決策時，我們會從內部收益率的角度來看待整體情況。所以說真的，在這一點上，這顯然是一種順風或進步。目前，它確實沒有讓我們克服項目經濟方面的障礙。第二部分是一個很好的問題，這是我們將繼續做的事情。我們將與技術方面和下游方面的合作夥伴進行交談並評估機會。但在這一點上，我們確實考慮了延遲，可能至少有 24 個月。但就您的觀點而言，我們將繼續從合作夥伴的角度尋找未來的機會。

Mark? Yes. I think Ken covered it pretty well, Richard. I mean, what I'd say from an economic standpoint is that Trevor did mention earlier Ken, that we did see some capital cost escalation relative to our original expectations. And obviously, that's something that deteriorated the economic somewhat. And then I think, obviously, a lot hinges on the view of the future. And as Ken said, over the long term, we do have confidence that these new sources of demand related to clean ammonia have a number of reasons why they should emerge. But today, the evidence wouldn't be sufficient to justify the assumption of a premium, at least not in the near term, emerging for clean ammonia. So on the commercial side of things, we did an exceptional amount of work in terms of market development, talking to partners. And as Ken mentioned, we do see a day where this could potentially become more attractive and really the attitude at this point is to preserve value and optionality for the project and really just making a decision that there are higher return, better capital allocation alternatives over the near term and possibly medium term, but the option to revisit this at a later point.

標記？是的。我認為肯講得很好，理查德。我的意思是，從經濟角度來看，特雷弗確實提到了肯，我們確實看到了相對於我們最初預期的一些資本成本上升。顯然，這在一定程度上導致了經濟惡化。然後我認為，顯然，很大程度上取決於對未來的看法。正如肯所說，從長遠來看，我們確實相信這些與清潔氨相關的新需求來源有很多理由出現。但今天，證據不足以證明清潔氨出現溢價的假設是合理的，至少在短期內是這樣。因此，在商業方面，我們在市場開發、與合作夥伴交談方面做了大量工作。正如肯提到的，我們確實看到有一天這可能會變得更具吸引力，此時的態度實際上是保留項目的價值和選擇性，並且實際上只是做出決定，即有更高的回報，更好的資本配置替代方案短期和可能的中期，但可以選擇稍後重新審視這一點。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Tupholme from TD Securities.

您的下一個問題來自道明證券 (TD Securities) 的 Michael Tupholme。

A question on the potash side. Can you provide an update on the production curtailments you announced last month at Cory and Rocanville and what you're assuming in terms of bringing that production back online? And then as a follow-on, can you also provide an update on the status of the equipment issue at the Portland terminal and when you expect that terminal to be back up.

關於鉀肥方面的問題。您能否提供有關您上個月在科里和羅坎維爾宣布的生產削減的最新信息，以及您對恢復生產的假設？接下來，您能否提供有關波特蘭航站樓設備問題狀態的最新信息以及您預計該航站樓何時恢復的信息。

Great. Yes, absolutely. With respect to the curtailments, yes, we've talked about those and talked about some reduced potash volumes related to the challenges on the West Coast and hence, having to bring down some production. But Chris, I'll hand it over to Chris to talk about the curtailments and then with respect to Portland and how we -- how that's evolving in terms of getting that back in service over to Mark. So Chris?

偉大的。是的，一點沒錯。關於減產，是的，我們已經討論過這些問題，並討論了與西海岸的挑戰相關的鉀肥產量減少，因此必須減少一些產量。但是克里斯，我將把它交給克里斯來談論削減，然後談論波特蘭以及我們如何——在讓馬克重新投入使用方面如何發展。那麼克里斯呢？

Yes, Michael, thanks for the question. And yes, you're right. We did -- we're forced to curtail production at both our Cory and Rocanville sites. And the plan as it stands today, is that we're hopeful that the strike is resolved here formally by the end of the week in Vancouver, and that would enable us to bring Rocanville back to normal production rates. But our plan at the moment is to keep Cory, a little curtailed. But if demand was to move up towards the end of the year, we could also remove that and bring some production back if the market needed it. So -- but that's our plan as it stands today. And regarding the West Coast ports, I'll hand it over to Mark.

是的，邁克爾，謝謝你的提問。是的，你是對的。我們做到了——我們被迫削減了科里和羅坎維爾工廠的產量。今天的計劃是，我們希望罷工能夠在本週末在溫哥華正式解決，這將使我們能夠使羅坎維爾恢復到正常的生產率。但我們目前的計劃是保留科里，稍微減少一些。但如果需求在年底前上升，我們也可以取消這一計劃，並在市場需要時恢復一些生產。所以——但這就是我們今天的計劃。至於西海岸港口，我將把它交給馬克。

Sure. Thanks, Michael. So look, I'll start with Portland, but maybe just for completeness, talk about Neptune as well given that's all part of the picture on the logistics constraints and your questions on potash production to Chris. So from a Portland perspective, repairs are progressing at the facility. And what we hear from Canpotex is that we do expect completion of that work in Portland to be back in service by the end of Q4. From a Neptune standpoint, as Chris said, we're hopeful we see resolution in the next few days and a definitive answer that there will be no more strike action there. Today at Neptune, labor and productivity as we hear is about normal, but there is a meaningful backlog that exists from the 2 weeks or so of strike action that did happen. Canpotex does have numerous loaded trains at third-party sites and producer sites that sitting in Western Canada that do need to be worked through. So there is a backlog and some time it's going to take -- and right now, we assume that time period will be until the end of August, assuming no further disruption. So right now, that's our expectations on both Portland and Neptune.

當然。謝謝，邁克爾。所以，我將從波特蘭開始，但也許只是為了完整性，也談談海王星，因為這是物流限制的全部內容以及您向克里斯提出的關於鉀肥生產的問題。因此，從波特蘭的角度來看，該設施的維修工作正在進行中。我們從 Canpotex 獲悉，我們確實預計波特蘭的這項工作將在第四季度末完成並重新投入使用。從海王星的角度來看，正如克里斯所說，我們希望在接下來的幾天內看到解決方案，並得到明確的答案，即那裡將不再有罷工行動。如今，在海王星，我們聽說的勞動力和生產力基本正常，但由於兩週左右的罷工行動確實發生了嚴重的積壓。 Canpotex 確實在位於加拿大西部的第三方站點和生產商站點上有許多滿載的列車，確實需要進行處理。因此，存在積壓，需要一些時間——現在，我們假設這個時間段將持續到八月底，假設沒有進一步的中斷。現在，這就是我們對波特蘭和海王星的期望。

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Better from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀 (UBS) 的喬什·貝特 (Josh Better)。

I guess 2 quick ones for me, if I can. First, just to clarify on the Geismar clean ammonia facility. So I believe you had a letter of intent for some offtake of that. Did that partner change any of their willingness or time line to take any of that product into that play into your decision at all? And then just second, with CapEx, I think, Pedro, you mentioned $2.5 billion to $3 billion of the range which you'd operate in, but you're still spending about $1 billion on growth this year. So could we see a number closer to $2 billion next year? Is that not realistic?

如果可以的話，我想對我來說有兩個快速的。首先，澄清一下 Geismar 清潔氨設施。所以我相信你們已經有一份意向書來購買其中的一些產品。該合作夥伴是否改變了他們將任何產品納入您的決定的意願或時間表？其次，關於資本支出，我想，佩德羅，您提到了您的運營範圍為 25 億至 30 億美元，但今年您仍花費約 10 億美元用於增長。那麼明年我們能看到接近 20 億美元的數字嗎？這不現實嗎？

Great. Thanks, Josh. Yes, with respect to the offtake and letter of intent, the no, no, that was not part of the decision-making process. That was with Mitsubishi. We have a very strong relationship with Mitsubishi that continues but that was not part of the decision-making process. It really does boil down to the things that we talked about earlier, evolution of end markets, increasing capital costs and better uses for capital in the near to medium term and wanting to maintain flexibility with disciplined capital allocation in the near to medium term. With respect to the CapEx assumptions, I'll hand it over to Pedro.

偉大的。謝謝，喬什。是的，關於承購和意向書，不，不，這不是決策過程的一部分。那是三菱的事。我們與三菱有著非常牢固的關係，這種關係仍在繼續，但這並不是決策過程的一部分。這確實可以歸結為我們之前討論過的問題，即終端市場的演變、資本成本的增加和在中短期內更好地利用資本，以及希望在中短期內通過嚴格的資本配置來保持靈活性。關於資本支出假設，我將把它交給 Pedro。

Yes. I think, Josh, I think just to clarify, the $2.5 billion to $3 billion is what we will be saving in the -- both the ramp and the Geismar project into the future. So those are capital expenditures that will not happen that would have been in our 5-year plan for the next 5 years. So in addition to that, we are looking at other potential actions to our capital plan for this year and next year, but I just wanted to make sure I clarify that.

是的。喬希，我想澄清一下，我們將在未來的坡道和 Geismar 項目中節省 25 億至 30 億美元。因此，這些資本支出不會發生在我們未來 5 年的 5 年計劃中。因此，除此之外，我們正在考慮對今年和明年的資本計劃採取其他潛在行動，但我只是想確保澄清這一點。

Your next question comes from the line of Edlain Rodriguez from Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的埃德蘭·羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

Just one quick question on India, and maybe this is for Mark. Like what are you seeing in India in terms of products? Like are they really paying 422 versus 307 for China? Like are they actually buying and paying that price?

只是一個關於印度的簡單問題，也許這是問馬克的。您對印度的產品有何看法？比如他們真的為中國支付了 422 美元還是 307 美元？他們是否真的購買並支付了這個價格？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Edlain. And we're not seeing volumes move at the agreed 422. But also, you may have seen the Canpotex-pulled offers in India as a result of the challenges off the West Coast. But Mark, do you want to provide more color?

是的。謝謝你的提問，艾德蘭。我們沒有看到銷量按照商定的 422 變化。而且，您可能已經看到 Canpotex 由於西海岸的挑戰而取消了印度的報價。但是馬克，你想提供更多的顏色嗎？

Yes. Edlain. So upon the signing of the India contract $422. I think right at the beginning of the second quarter, we did see some Canpotex shipments go into India, and we understand from other producers that $422 price level. But subsequent to the signing of the Chinese contract, we have not seen meaningful volumes, at least from a Canpotex standpoint going to India. And again, we can't speak for other suppliers. But as of now, there's no new agreement with Canpotex in India. As Ken said, Canpotex pulled all of its offers following the disruption at the Neptune terminal and really looking at the overall portfolio of tons available for the last half of the year, looking at the cost impacts from the outage and really assessing where the best netbacks are. So it remains to be seen how the rest of the year evolves for India. We do know that because of the better-than-expected monsoon, we would expect there is going to be demand for potash in India and that India will need more potash for the remainder of the year.

是的。艾德蘭.因此，在簽署印度合同時，金額為 422 美元。我認為在第二季度初，我們確實看到一些 Canpotex 貨物進入印度，並且我們從其他生產商那裡了解到 422 美元的價格水平。但在中國合同簽署後，我們沒有看到有意義的銷量，至少從 Canpotex 的角度來看是這樣。再次強調，我們不能代表其他供應商。但截至目前，印度尚未與 Canpotex 達成新協議。正如肯所說，在海王星碼頭中斷後，Canpotex 撤回了所有報價，並真正審視了今年下半年可用噸數的整體投資組合，著眼於中斷造成的成本影響，並真正評估了最佳淨回報在哪裡是。因此，印度今年剩餘時間將如何發展仍有待觀察。我們確實知道，由於季風好於預期，我們預計印度將對鉀肥有需求，並且印度在今年剩餘時間內將需要更多鉀肥。

Your next question comes from the line of Aron Ceccarelli from Berenberg.

您的下一個問題來自貝倫貝格的 Aron Ceccarelli。

Just a follow-up on India. How confident are you now with this in the contract expire in September that this is not going to translate into a pause in -- for the price recovery we see now in potash prices.

只是印度的後續行動。您現在對 9 月到期的合同有多大信心，認為這不會轉化為我們現在看到的鉀肥價格回升的暫停。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Aron. And yes, really looking at the region and standard grade. I mean, obviously, the China contract had the effect of creating the stability in the market, and that was reflected really even almost immediately Brazil bouncing off that floor and now strengthening, as we talked about earlier, 10% since June. And that market continues to strengthen. Southeast Asia, we talked about it earlier and really with the China contract and CPO prices making potash affordable. So affordability has gone up and inventory levels being drawn down that we expect movements in Southeast Asia. And in India, inventories are very low, as Mark just said. So heading into the fall here, strong Monsoon, we do expect demand in India. It's always subject to the discussion about the subsidy in India. But we expect inventory replenishment in India as well, the India has been a case of demand rationalization because with some of these supply challenges over the last 18 months, simply not getting the volume. But a question earlier about yield impacts, I mean, India is a place where we could see yield impacts if some of these challenges persist.

是的。謝謝你的提問，阿倫。是的，確實要考慮地區和標準等級。我的意思是，很明顯，中國合同具有創造市場穩定的效果，這甚至幾乎立即反映了巴西從該底部反彈並現在加強，正如我們之前談到的，自 6 月以來增長了 10％。而且這個市場還在繼續加強。東南亞，我們之前談到過，中國的合同和原棕油價格使鉀肥價格實惠。因此，我們預計東南亞的承受能力有所上升，庫存水平也有所下降。正如馬克剛才所說，在印度，庫存非常低。因此，進入秋季，季風強勁，我們確實預計印度會有需求。印度的補貼問題一直是人們討論的焦點。但我們預計印度的庫存也會得到補充，印度一直是需求合理化的例子，因為過去 18 個月出現了一些供應挑戰，根本沒有達到供應量。但之前關於產量影響的問題，我的意思是，如果其中一些挑戰持續存在，印度是我們可以看到產量影響的地方。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand over to Jeff. Please continue.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把工作交給傑夫。請繼續。

All right. Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available for follow-up questions. Have a great day.

好的。感謝您今天加入我們。投資者關係團隊可以解答後續問題。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。