Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's Fourth Quarter Earnings Call -- 2021 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 的第四季度財報電話會議——2021 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Holzman, VP of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Holzman。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's Fourth Quarter 2021 Conference Call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain material assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our current quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and annual information form filed with Canadian and U.S. Securities Commissions.

謝謝你，接線員。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2021 年第四季度電話會議。在我們進行本次電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計劃和前景所做的各種陳述都包含前瞻性信息。作出這些結論和預測時應用了某些重大假設。因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性信息中包含的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的其他信息包含在我們向股東提交的當前季度報告以及我們向加拿大和美國證券委員會提交的最新年度報告、MD&A 和年度信息表中。

I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Interim President and CEO; and Pedro Farah, our CFO, for opening comments before we take your questions.

我現在將把電話轉給臨時總裁兼首席執行官 Ken Seitz；以及我們的首席財務官 Pedro Farah，感謝您在我們回答您的問題之前發表評論。

Thanks, Jeff. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's fourth quarter earnings call. I look forward to recapping our 2021 results, our outlook for the business in 2022 and how we are positioning the company to deliver superior long-term value for our shareholders. 2021 was truly an extraordinary year as world continued to navigate through challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, heightened concerns over global food security and the impacts of climate change.

謝謝，傑夫。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 的第四季度財報電話會議。我期待著回顧我們 2021 年的業績、我們對 2022 年業務的展望，以及我們如何定位公司以為我們的股東提供卓越的長期價值。 2021 年確實是不平凡的一年，因為世界繼續應對與 COVID-19 大流行、供應鏈中斷、對全球糧食安全和氣候變化影響的高度關注相關的挑戰。

Our strong performance this past year demonstrated that Nutrien can positively address these challenges and deliver sustainable solutions that benefit all of our stakeholders. I'm proud to report that we achieved an all-time best safety performance in 2021 with no fatalities or life-altering injuries. To our employees listening today, a heartfelt thank you. Your commitment to safety and our culture of care has a meaningful impact on the well-being of all our colleagues at Nutrien and the communities where we live and operate.

我們過去一年的強勁表現表明，Nutrien 可以積極應對這些挑戰並提供可持續的解決方案，使我們所有的利益相關者受益。我很自豪地報告，我們在 2021 年取得了空前的最佳安全表現，沒有人員死亡或改變生命的傷害。對我們今天聆聽的員工表示衷心的感謝。您對安全的承諾和我們的關懷文化對我們在 Nutrien 的所有同事以及我們生活和經營所在社區的福祉產生了有意義的影響。

Now turning to our financial results and outlook. Adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $7.1 billion in 2021, and we generated cash flow from operating activities of $3.9 billion. This performance was underpinned by the strong execution of our teams, competitive advantages of our integrated business model and the benefit of a robust market fundamentals.

現在轉向我們的財務業績和展望。調整後的 EBITDA 在 2021 年幾乎翻了一番，達到 71 億美元，我們從經營活動中產生了 39 億美元的現金流。這一業績得益於我們團隊的強大執行力、我們綜合業務模式的競爭優勢以及穩健的市場基本面帶來的好處。

Nutrien Ag Solutions delivered record adjusted EBITDA of more than $1.9 billion, with strong earnings growth in each of our core geographies. We continued to strengthen our direct relationship with the grower through the reliability of our supply chain, delivery of innovative products, expanded digital capabilities and sustainability solutions.

Nutrien Ag Solutions 實現了創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA 超過 19 億美元，在我們的每個核心地區都實現了強勁的盈利增長。我們通過供應鏈的可靠性、創新產品的交付、擴展的數字能力和可持續發展解決方案，繼續加強與種植者的直接關係。

Our ability to deliver on each of these strategic initiatives was a major contributor to our robust organic growth in 2021. Gross margin from our proprietary products increased by more than 20% in 2021 and now exceeds $1 billion. Our Retail business sold record fertilizer volumes due to favorable market conditions and the strength of our global network. North American digital platform sales reached $2.1 billion, and we are building out our digital agronomy tools to support the delivery of long-term sustainable agriculture solutions for our customers. We also expanded our network through the completion of 14 retail acquisitions. We continue to diversify our earnings outside of North America with a focus on growing our business in Brazil. More than 1/3 of our retail earnings now reside outside of the U.S., and we expect that share will continue to grow over the next 5 years.

我們實施這些戰略舉措的能力是我們在 2021 年強勁有機增長的主要貢獻者。我們專有產品的毛利率在 2021 年增長了 20% 以上，現在超過 10 億美元。由於有利的市場條件和我們全球網絡的實力，我們的零售業務銷售了創紀錄的肥料量。北美數字平台銷售額達到 21 億美元，我們正在構建我們的數字農藝工具，以支持為我們的客戶提供長期可持續農業解決方案。我們還通過完成 14 項零售收購擴大了我們的網絡。我們繼續在北美以外地區實現收入多元化，重點發展我們在巴西的業務。現在，我們超過 1/3 的零售收入來自美國以外，我們預計該份額將在未來 5 年內繼續增長。

Our potash business delivered $2.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA, supported by higher realized prices and record sales volumes. We safely and efficiently increased production by nearly 1 million tonnes, which represents a small portion of our low-cost available production capacity. We utilized the strength of our North American distribution system to increase volumes in the domestic market and Canpotex' ability to access 4 marine terminals on the West and East Coast was critical to ensuring a reliable supply of potash to our offshore customers.

在較高的實際價格和創紀錄的銷量的支持下，我們的鉀肥業務實現了 27 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。我們安全有效地增加了近 100 萬噸的產量，這僅占我們低成本可用產能的一小部分。我們利用北美分銷系統的優勢來增加國內市場的銷量，而 Canpotex 能夠進入西海岸和東海岸的 4 個海運碼頭對於確保向我們的離岸客戶可靠供應鉀肥至關重要。

In nitrogen, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion, supported by higher prices and to the advantaged position of our assets. The Nitrogen team completed 2 large plant turnarounds and Phase 1 of our low-cost brownfield expansions, delivering these projects on time and on budget. We progressed several initiatives during the year that will enhance the long-term growth and sustainability of our Nitrogen business. This includes the launch of Phase 2 of brownfield expansion projects as well as GHG emissions reduction projects at several of our nitrogen sites.

在氮氣方面，我們產生了 23 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，這得益於更高的價格和我們資產的優勢地位。 Nitrogen 團隊完成了 2 次大型工廠改造和我們低成本棕地擴建的第一階段，按時按預算交付這些項目。我們在這一年中推進了幾項舉措，這些舉措將增強我們氮業務的長期增長和可持續性。這包括啟動棕地擴建項目的第二階段以及在我們的幾個氮肥廠開展的溫室氣體減排項目。

Finally, in phosphate, our team capitalized on improved market fundamentals to deliver record adjusted EBITDA of $540 million. Our focus in phosphate is to maximize the free cash flow of the business by improving the reliability of our operations and leverage the flexibility of our plans to increase volumes of higher-margin industrial and premium fertilizer products.

最後，在磷酸鹽方面，我們的團隊利用改善的市場基本面實現了創紀錄的 5.4 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。我們在磷酸鹽方面的重點是通過提高我們運營的可靠性並利用我們計劃的靈活性來增加利潤率更高的工業和優質化肥產品的數量，從而最大限度地提高業務的自由現金流。

Turning to the outlook. Global grain and oilseed supplies are well below historical levels, which continues to support crop prices. In the U.S., corn and soybean prices increased by 10% to 15% over the past month due to global supply uncertainties. U.S. corn grower cash margins are projected to be 70% above the 10-year average based on current new crop futures. Prospective returns for key crops in Brazil and Australia are also very strong, and we expect this will support crop input demand in these markets.

轉向前景。全球糧食和油籽供應遠低於歷史水平，這繼續支撐農作物價格。在美國，由於全球供應的不確定性，過去一個月玉米和大豆價格上漲了 10% 至 15%。根據當前的新作物期貨，美國玉米種植者的現金利潤率預計將比 10 年平均水平高出 70%。巴西和澳大利亞主要作物的預期回報也非常強勁，我們預計這將支持這些市場的作物投入需求。

In 2021, our Retail business generated above-average per tonne fertilizer margins due to the timing of procurement in a rising price environment. Our retail adjusted EBITDA guidance assumes a return to more historical average commodity fertilizer margins in 2022. We had a very strong fall fertilizer application season and anticipated this led to some pull forward of volume and earnings. We expect our specialty nutritional and crop protection product margins will remain strong and anticipate growth in our seed business, particularly in Brazil.

2021 年，由於價格上漲環境下的採購時機，我們的零售業務每噸化肥的利潤率高於平均水平。我們的零售調整後 EBITDA 指導假設到 2022 年商品肥料利潤率將恢復到更多的歷史平均水平。我們有一個非常強勁的秋季施肥季節，並預計這會導致銷量和收益有所增長。我們預計我們的特種營養和作物保護產品利潤率將保持強勁，並預計我們的種子業務將增長，尤其是在巴西。

Our strategy in potash is to utilize our world-class network of 6 mines to respond to changes in market conditions and we see significant opportunity for growth again in 2022. We expect to ship record potash volumes between 13.7 million to 14.3 million tonnes, assuming sanctions on Belarus have a temporary impact on supply. If we were to see more significant long-term impact, Nutrien has the capability to further increase production by hiring additional employees and incurring some small incremental capital expenditures.

我們的鉀肥戰略是利用我們世界級的 6 座礦山網絡來應對市場條件的變化，我們看到 2022 年再次出現重大增長機會。假設受到製裁，我們預計鉀肥出貨量將達到創紀錄的 1,370 萬噸至 1,430 萬噸對白俄羅斯的供應有暫時的影響。如果我們要看到更顯著的長期影響，Nutrien 有能力通過僱用更多員工並產生一些小額增量資本支出來進一步提高產量。

Canpotex is fully committed through the first quarter due to the strength in demand from customers in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Earlier this week, Canpotex also signed new contracts with customers in India and China at $590 per tonne with shipments expected to occur April through December. Our domestic order book is now closed for the first quarter, and we recently announced a $25 per short tonne increase for deliveries in the second quarter. The increase reflects the current strength in global potash market fundamentals, in particular for granular grade product.

由於拉丁美洲和東南亞客戶的強勁需求，Canpotex 將全力投入到第一季度。本週早些時候，Canpotex 還與印度和中國的客戶簽訂了每噸 590 美元的新合同，預計將於 4 月至 12 月發貨。我們第一季度的國內訂單現已關閉，我們最近宣布第二季度的交貨量每短噸增加 25 美元。這一增長反映了當前全球鉀肥市場基本面的強勢，尤其是顆粒級產品。

In nitrogen, we expect high global energy prices. Chinese export restrictions and heightened geopolitical risks will support prices in 2022. We entered the year with relatively low nitrogen inventory levels and have incurred a few plant outages in the first quarter, however, we expect our sales volumes will increase due to the completion of our Borger expansion project in 2021 and higher full year operating rates.

在氮氣方面，我們預計全球能源價格會很高。中國的出口限制和加劇的地緣政治風險將支撐 2022 年的價格。我們進入這一年時的氮庫存水平相對較低，並且在第一季度發生了一些工廠停產，但是，我們預計我們的銷量將隨著我們的完成而增加Borger 2021 年的擴建項目和更高的全年開工率。

I will now turn it over to Pedro to review our capital allocation priorities. Pedro?

我現在將把它交給佩德羅來審查我們的資本分配優先事項。佩德羅？

Thank you, Ken. As Ken just highlighted, 2022 is set up to be an excellent year for the company, given the strength of the market fundamentals and the competitive advantages we have in each of our businesses. We guided to an adjusted EBITDA of $10 billion to $11.2 billion, which at the midpoint represents a 50% increase from our record earnings in 2021. The key drivers of this growth are higher expected selling prices and our ability to utilize existing capacity to increase sales volumes in potash and nitrogen. Although retail earnings are expected to be lower in 2022 due to the normalization of commodity fertilizer margins and some pull forward in Q4, the underlying trends in key financial metrics for the business are still very strong.

謝謝你，肯。正如 Ken 剛剛強調的那樣，鑑於市場基本面的實力和我們在每項業務中的競爭優勢，2022 年對於公司來說將是一個出色的年份。我們指導調整後的 EBITDA 為 100 億美元至 112 億美元，中點比我們 2021 年創紀錄的收益增長 50%。這一增長的主要驅動力是更高的預期售價以及我們利用現有產能增加銷售額的能力鉀和氮的體積。儘管由於商品肥料利潤率的正常化和第四季度的一些回升，預計 2022 年零售收益將下降，但該業務的關鍵財務指標的潛在趨勢仍然非常強勁。

We expect a substantial increase in our cash provided by operating activities this year and have provided a scenario of this opportunity earnings presentation posted on our website. Based on our adjusted EBITDA guidance range and a conversion ratio of approximately 75%, we have the potential to generate operating cash flow of $7.5 billion to $8.4 billion this year. This scenario illustrates the significant opportunity we have to advance our capital allocation priorities in 2022. We expect sustaining capital expenditures in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, which reflects the impacts of inflation over the past year, the prioritization of projects that were deferred during the pandemic and replacement of some end-of-life assets at our nitrogen sites.

我們預計今年經營活動提供的現金將大幅增加，並在我們的網站上提供了這種機會收益演示的情景。根據我們調整後的 EBITDA 指導範圍和約 75% 的轉換率，我們今年有可能產生 75 億至 84 億美元的經營現金流。這種情況說明了我們必須在 2022 年推進我們的資本配置優先事項的重大機會。我們預計資本支出將維持在 12 億至 13 億美元之間，這反映了過去一年通貨膨脹的影響，被推遲的項目的優先次序在大流行和更換我們的氮氣站點的一些報廢資產期間。

In 2021, we reduced long-term debt by $2.1 billion, and we do not expect the need to reduce nominal debt any further. Our balance sheet is now very well positioned to take advantage of value-enhancing opportunities through the cycle.

2021 年，我們將長期債務減少了 21 億美元，我們預計無需進一步減少名義債務。我們的資產負債表現在處於非常有利的位置，可以在整個週期中利用增值機會。

In terms of growth capital, we have a well-defined set of retail opportunities that include growing our network in Brazil, tuck-in acquisitions in other core markets, expanding our proprietary product business and enhancing our digital capabilities. The Brazilian market, in particular, provides a significant opportunity for targeted growth due to its rapidly expanding agriculture production and fragmented retail structure.

在成長資本方面，我們擁有一系列明確的零售機會，包括擴大我們在巴西的網絡、在其他核心市場進行收購、擴大我們的專有產品業務和增強我們的數字能力。尤其是巴西市場，由於其迅速擴大的農業生產和分散的零售結構，為目標增長提供了重要機會。

In nitrogen, we have embarked on a Phase 2 brownfield expansion plan that is expected to add an additional 0.5 million tonnes of low-cost, environmentally efficient capacity for a total investment of $260 million. We are also evaluating options to increase the production of low-carbon ammonia and have approved $50 million in projects that are aimed at eliminating approximately 10% of our current Scope 1 and 2 emissions in hydrogen by 2023.

在製氮領域，我們已經啟動了第二階段的棕地擴建計劃，預計將額外增加 50 萬噸低成本、環保的產能，總投資為 2.6 億美元。我們還在評估增加低碳氨生產的方案，並已批准 5000 萬美元的項目，旨在到 2023 年消除我們目前範圍 1 和 2 氫排放的約 10%。

Our global potash position is unmatched. And we expect to make small annual investments for mine development and underground equipment that would enable us to increase production from existing capacity. We are making moderate investments to increase self-generated power, autonomous mining and other technologies that will enhance the safety and efficiency of our potash sites. In total, we expect to allocate approximately $1 billion to investment projects across our businesses in 2022 with attractive projected returns.

我們的全球鉀肥地位無與倫比。我們預計每年對礦山開發和地下設備進行少量投資，這將使我們能夠利用現有產能增加產量。我們正在進行適度投資，以增加自發電、自主採礦和其他技術，以提高我們鉀肥廠的安全性和效率。總體而言，我們預計在 2022 年為我們業務的投資項目分配約 10 億美元，預計回報可觀。

Lastly, I would address shareholder distributions. Since 2018, Nutrien has allocated $9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, including $2.1 billion return in 2021 alone. We have demonstrated the ability to pay a stable and growing dividend under the most difficult market conditions and distribute excess cash through share repurchases. Yesterday, the Board of Directors approved a 4% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.48 per share and the purchase of up to 10% of our Nutrien's common shares over a 1-year period. We plan to allocate a minimum of $2 billion to share repurchases in 2022 on a balanced cadence throughout the year. Given the strength of our projected cash flow, we believe there is a potential for additional capital to be allocated beyond the opportunities I just outlined. We will evaluate the most value-enhancing uses for this cash and provide an update to our shareholders as the year progresses.

最後，我將討論股東分配問題。自 2018 年以來，Nutrien 通過股息和股票回購向股東分配了 90 億美元，其中僅 2021 年就有 21 億美元的回報。我們已經證明有能力在最困難的市場條件下支付穩定且不斷增長的股息，並通過股票回購分配多餘的現金。昨天，董事會批准將季度股息提高 4% 至每股 0.48 美元，並在 1 年內購買最多 10% 的 Nutrien 普通股。我們計劃在 2022 年以全年平衡的節奏分配至少 20 億美元用於股票回購。鑑於我們預計現金流的強度，我們相信除了我剛才概述的機會之外，還有可能分配額外的資本。我們將評估這筆現金最具價值的用途，並隨著時間的推移向我們的股東提供最新信息。

And now I'll pass it back to Ken.

現在我會把它傳給肯。

Thanks, Pedro. Just a few final comments before we get to your questions. The outlook for our industry and our company has never been stronger. Global grain and oilseed inventories remain well below historical levels and crop prices are supportive of demand in the key regions where we operate. We entered 2022 with significantly higher prices for our products and the capability to bring on additional potash and nitrogen volumes. We have well-defined strategic plans for each of our business and the executive leadership team is focused on advancing the key priorities that will maximize long-term value for all stakeholders. We have an extremely talented group of employees throughout the organization that helped to deliver record results in 2021, and I am highly confident in their ability to rise to the occasion once again in 2022.

謝謝，佩德羅。在我們回答您的問題之前，請發表一些最後的評論。我們行業和我們公司的前景從未如此強勁。全球糧食和油籽庫存仍遠低於歷史水平，作物價格支撐了我們經營的關鍵地區的需求。進入 2022 年，我們的產品價格顯著提高，並且有能力增加鉀肥和氮肥的產量。我們為每項業務制定了明確的戰略計劃，執行領導團隊專注於推進關鍵優先事項，為所有利益相關者實現長期價值最大化。我們在整個組織中擁有一群才華橫溢的員工，他們幫助在 2021 年取得了創紀錄的成績，我對他們在 2022 年再次站起來的能力充滿信心。

I'm joined today by members of our leadership team, and we would be happy to take your questions.

今天，我們領導團隊的成員加入了我的行列，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question will come from the line of Joel Jackson with BMO.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題將來自 Joel Jackson 與 BMO 的一行。

Obviously, the Belarus BPC issue is quite fluid and crazy. I have a couple of questions on this. So if Belarus has significant sales restriction to an extended number of months, they can't do their 1 million tonnes a month, they are going to do a fraction of that. What do you think the market will do? Like do potash prices have to rise to induce demand structure in the balance of the market because nobody can balance the market unless demand goes down. And the second part is longer is what do you need to see to hire miners and spend the small investment to bring on the millions of tonnes you have sitting idle because I imagine it's going to take you a year to ramp, and you probably want, what, 2 or 3 years to think that BPC is in trouble, and you can't conclude that right now. So is it fair to say you're nowhere near really making the decision to bring back those extra tonnes?

顯然，白俄羅斯 BPC 問題非常不穩定和瘋狂。我對此有幾個問題。因此，如果白俄羅斯在很長一段時間內有重大的銷售限制，他們每月不能生產 100 萬噸，他們只會做其中的一小部分。你認為市場會做什麼？就像鉀肥價格必須上漲才能在市場平衡中引起需求結構一樣，因為除非需求下降，否則沒有人可以平衡市場。第二部分更長的是你需要看到什麼來僱傭礦工並花費小額投資來帶來你閒置的數百萬噸，因為我想你需要一年的時間來增加，你可能想要，什麼，2 或 3 年認為 BPC 陷入困境，你現在不能得出結論。所以說你離真正決定帶回這些額外的噸還很遠嗎？

Great. Well, thanks for the question, Mr. Joel. And we're watching the situation in Belarus quite closely. We're guiding and suggesting 68 million to 71 million tonnes worth of potash shipments in 2022. And that is -- we're taking into account what's happening in Belarus when we say that. For our part, we sort of had anticipated that it would be difficult for BPC to get access to tidewater with difficulties getting through Lithuania, obviously. And then also difficulties finding other port access and even rail to the east. So we're looking at this and wondering with all the uncertainty around it, how long will this last?

偉大的。好吧，謝謝你的問題，喬爾先生。我們正在密切關注白俄羅斯的局勢。我們正在指導和建議 2022 年價值 6800 萬至 7100 萬噸的鉀肥出貨量。也就是說，當我們這麼說時，我們正在考慮白俄羅斯正在發生的事情。就我們而言，我們有點預料到 BPC 很難進入潮水，顯然很難通過立陶宛。然後也很難找到其他港口通道，甚至是通往東部的鐵路。所以我們正在研究這個問題，並想知道它周圍的所有不確定性，這會持續多久？

In the meantime, your question about what market prices will do? Well, if anything, on that 68 million to 71 million tonnes of shipments at the top end could be capped by the actual availability of supply. And so yes, we could see some additional pressure on pricing. Of course, Canpotex concluded contracts with India and China at $590 per tonne, but it is true we could see some additional pressure on pricing. In the meantime, for our part, what do we need to see? So we have always planned our production capability for 2.5% to 3% average annual growth rates. We've talked about our 18 million tonnes of existing capacity and the ability to bring on additional brownfields when the market is calling for it.

同時，您對市場價格的影響有疑問嗎？好吧，如果有的話，最高端的 6800 萬至 7100 萬噸的出貨量可能會受到實際供應量的限制。所以是的，我們可以看到定價方面的一些額外壓力。當然，Canpotex 以每噸 590 美元的價格與印度和中國簽訂了合同，但我們確實可以看到一些額外的定價壓力。與此同時，就我們而言，我們需要看到什麼？因此，我們一直將我們的生產能力規劃為年均增長率為 2.5% 至 3%。我們已經談到了我們 1800 萬噸的現有產能以及在市場需要時帶來更多棕地的能力。

So we're looking at the Belarusian situation, and we would need to see some prolonged challenges in that part of the world in order to make those investments on opening up ground, putting mining machines at faces and hiring people exactly as you say, Joel. In the meantime, we're guiding 13.7 million to 4.3 million tonnes which is an increase from 2021. And certainly, at the top end, it's an opportunity for us to put more material into the market. And I'll also say, in addition to that, we're preserving additional flex capacity for this year should our customers need more volume.

所以我們正在研究白俄羅斯的情況，我們需要看到世界那個地區的一些長期挑戰，以便在開放領域進行這些投資，將採礦機放在臉上，並像你所說的那樣僱用人員，喬爾.與此同時，我們將指導 1370 萬噸至 430 萬噸，比 2021 年增加。當然，在高端，這是我們向市場投放更多材料的機會。我還要說，除此之外，如果我們的客戶需要更多容量，我們將在今年保留額外的彈性容量。

For the longer term, again, Joel, we would need to see in order to make the investments of opening up the ground and hiring people, we would need to see some prolonged challenges in Belarus in order to make those investments.

再次，喬爾，從長遠來看，我們需要看到，為了進行開放和僱用人員的投資，我們需要看到白俄羅斯的一些長期挑戰，以便進行這些投資。

Your next question will come from the line of Jacob Bout with CIBC.

您的下一個問題將來自 CIBC 的 Jacob Bout。

I have some -- looking for some further granularity on the retail guidance for 2022. You're guiding for EBITDA to be down year-on-year. Can you talk a bit about what your organic versus M&A growth assumptions are? How big is that pull-forward effect? And are we going to feel that in the first quarter, first half? And then when we're looking at proprietary products and I guess, to a lesser extent, digital sales, when I look at 2023 targets, in particular, proprietary sales, I was surprised it was actually lower year-on-year and well down from 2023 targets of 29%.

我有一些 - 在 2022 年的零售指導中尋找更詳細的信息。你正在指導 EBITDA 同比下降。你能談談你的有機增長與併購增長假設是什麼嗎？這種拉動效應有多大？我們會在第一季度，上半年感受到嗎？然後，當我們查看專有產品時，我想，在較小程度上，數字銷售，當我查看 2023 年的目標，特別是專有銷售時，我很驚訝它實際上同比下降而且下降很多從 29% 的 2023 年目標開始。

Great. Thanks, Jacob. So I think you identified the moving parts there. We did have some meaningful fertilizer margins in 2021 with fertilizer prices escalating the way that they did. We had a very strong fall application season. So there was some pull forward into Q4, but we also had significant market share gains that we intend to carry through to 2022. But I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi to provide some more color.

偉大的。謝謝，雅各布。所以我認為你確定了那裡的移動部件。 2021 年，隨著化肥價格的上漲，我們確實有一些有意義的化肥利潤。我們有一個非常強勁的秋季申請季。所以第四季度有一些進步，但我們也有顯著的市場份額增長，我們打算將其延續到 2022 年。但我會把它交給 Jeff Tarsi 來提供更多的色彩。

Yes, Jacob. And look, obviously, we had a very strong fall, and I might mention on that strong fall, we really needed that strong fall to occur with some of the supply chain constraints and things that we've seen in the marketplace. And so we were quite happy about the fall that we had. We think it sets us up really early for the spring and spring planting season as it relates to that. And obviously, our margins per tonne last year on fertilizer were up, we were able to take advantage of our strategic network efficiencies that we have and storage capabilities and things like that. So we will see margins return to something that's of a more normal basis in '22.

是的，雅各布。看，顯然，我們有一個非常強勁的下跌，我可能會提到那個強勁的下跌，我們真的需要在一些供應鏈限制和我們在市場上看到的事情的情況下發生這種強勁的下跌。所以我們對我們的秋天感到非常高興。我們認為它讓我們為春季和春季種植季節做好了準備，因為它與此相關。顯然，去年我們每噸化肥的利潤率上升了，我們能夠利用我們擁有的戰略網絡效率和存儲能力等。因此，我們將看到利潤率在 22 年恢復到更正常的水平。

But if I look at it from a commodity fertilizer margin standpoint, they will be above what they were in '20. And one other thing I'll point out on fertilizer margins that anywhere from 20% to 25% of those margins are made up by our proprietary nutritional products. And we don't see those going back. We actually have -- we've actually built-in increases for '22 from a margin standpoint. If we look at organic growth, we've got organic growth to build into our plan. In '22, I think we got just over $90 million of organic EBITDA built into that plan for 2022. And look, our focus for our organic growth in '22 will rely very heavily on our proprietary business as well as organic growth.

但如果我從商品肥料利潤率的角度來看，它們將高於 20 年的水平。我要指出的另一件事是肥料利潤，其中 20% 到 25% 的利潤是由我們專有的營養產品構成的。而且我們看不到那些回去。我們實際上有 - 從利潤的角度來看，我們實際上已經內置了 '22 的增長。如果我們著眼於有機增長，我們已經將有機增長納入我們的計劃。在 22 年，我認為我們在 2022 年的計劃中獲得了超過 9000 萬美元的有機 EBITDA。看起來，我們在 22 年對有機增長的關注將在很大程度上依賴於我們的專有業務和有機增長。

Ken just mentioned just a minute ago, we were up pretty amazing in '21. We grew market share and grew margins across all 3 shelves of our business. And we certainly have in our plan for '22 that we'll keep those share gains. And from a seed perspective, we've got a pretty healthy plan built together. We really expect to continue to expand our share in the seed shelves of our business. So I hope that answers your questions.

肯在一分鐘前剛剛提到，我們在 21 年的表現非常出色。我們在我們業務的所有 3 個貨架上增加了市場份額並增加了利潤。我們當然在 22 年的計劃中會保留這些份額收益。從種子的角度來看，我們共同製定了一個非常健康的計劃。我們真的希望繼續擴大我們在業務種子貨架上的份額。所以我希望這能回答你的問題。

Your next question will come from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho.

您的下一個問題將來自克里斯托弗·帕金森（Christopher Parkinson）與瑞穗（Mizuho）的對話。

Great. Just given the incredibly healthy potash demand outlook, just how should we be thinking generally about the cost per tonne outlook? I'm assuming you're already getting the full benefit from Rocanville land again. But how should we be thinking about the near to intermediate term about Cory, Allan, and advanced Cory. Will that operate to be, let's say, noticeable to us on the cost line? And if we could circle back to Joel's question, what would be kind of the characterization of the current plan embedded in your guidance? And what would be the characterization of if things potentially change with the BPC outlook?

偉大的。鑑於令人難以置信的健康鉀肥需求前景，我們應該如何普遍考慮每噸成本的前景？我假設您已經再次從 Rocanville 土地中獲得了全部收益。但是我們應該如何考慮關於 Cory、Allan 和高級 Cory 的近期到中期。比方說，這會在成本線上引起我們的注意嗎？如果我們可以回到 Joel 的問題，您的指導中嵌入的當前計劃的特徵是什麼？如果事情可能隨著 BPC 的前景而發生變化，那麼這將是什麼特徵呢？

Great. Thanks, Chris. Yes, with respect to cash cost per tonne, I mean, there's -- we're experiencing a few pressures at the moment. Obviously, foreign exchange has worked against us a bit. We're also paying higher royalties given where potash prices have gone, and I'll have to say that we're also experiencing some inflationary pressures. But that said, we were able to make up those pressures in 2021 with increased volume so that I don't -- I wouldn't say that you should expect material changes in our cash cost per tonne in '21 to '22.

偉大的。謝謝，克里斯。是的，關於每噸現金成本，我的意思是，我們目前正面臨一些壓力。顯然，外匯對我們有點不利。鑑於鉀肥價格的走勢，我們還支付了更高的特許權使用費，我不得不說我們也面臨著一些通脹壓力。但話雖如此，我們能夠在 2021 年通過增加產量來彌補這些壓力，所以我不會——我不會說你應該期望我們在 21 年至 22 年期間每噸現金成本發生重大變化。

With respect to our plans for potash in 2020, I'll just say again, we're guiding 13.7 million to 14.3 million tonnes, and we are preserving additional capacity above that, maybe another 0.5 million tonnes that we would be able to bring on if we see that our customers are calling for it if there's a gap in the market created by the Belarusian situation. And again, an ability to bring on sustained volumes if some of these supply side events persist.

關於我們在 2020 年的鉀肥計劃，我只想再說一遍，我們將指導 1370 萬噸至 1430 萬噸，並且我們正在保留高於此的額外產能，也許我們能夠再增加 50 萬噸如果我們看到我們的客戶要求它，如果白俄羅斯局勢造成市場空白。同樣，如果其中一些供應方事件持續存在，則能夠帶來持續的交易量。

Your next question will come from the line of Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題將來自豐業銀行的 Ben Isaacson。

Just another potash question for you, maybe just a 2-parter. Ken, I was a little surprised to hear you say that Canpotex has sold out 6 weeks ahead or I think you said to the end of Q1. Most of 2021 it felt like Canpotex was sold out anywhere from 3 to 4.5 months ahead due to strong demand. So the first part of the question is, is this a sign of demand disruption starting, especially as we're going into the spring?

對您來說只是另一個鉀肥問題，也許只是一個兩部分。肯，聽到你說 Canpotex 提前 6 週售罄，或者我想你說的是第一季度末，我有點驚訝。在 2021 年的大部分時間裡，由於需求強勁，Canpotex 似乎提前 3 到 4.5 個月售罄。所以問題的第一部分是，這是否是需求中斷開始的跡象，尤其是在我們進入春天的時候？

My second part of this question on potash is you just mentioned you would see a prolonged issues in Belarus in order for you to start investing more money with respect to potash development. Yet you've been talking about 5 million tonnes of incremental expansion for a number of years. And so you would have thought that now that you have the cash and there's incremental issues out of Belarus, you would have accelerated that, but it doesn't sound like that's the plan. Can you elaborate on that?

我關於鉀肥的這個問題的第二部分是您剛才提到您會在白俄羅斯看到一個長期存在的問題，以便您開始在鉀肥開發方面投入更多資金。然而，您多年來一直在談論 500 萬噸的增量擴張。所以你會認為現在你有現金並且白俄羅斯有增量問題，你會加速這一點，但聽起來這不是計劃。你能詳細說明一下嗎？

Yes, you bet, Ben. Thanks for the question. So I definitely wouldn't say that this is a sign of demand destruction. Again, if we go region to region, grower sentiments are strong, and margins are strong. The commitments out through the first quarter offshore are really related to just demand in the key regions where we operate and actually low inventory levels in just about every region where we sell as well. And so we sort of go to market to market, a big market for granular -- sorry, standard-grade product in the first quarter this year has been Southeast Asia, where we're seeing really incredibly strong palm oil prices, record palm oil prices. And so demand there is strong and certainly Canpotex has meaningful commitment of standard-grade product into Southeast Asia. Then turning to the U.S., again, we had a strong fall application season. So growers in the U.S. are looking into the spring here now and looking to shore up supply.

是的，你打賭，本。謝謝你的問題。所以我絕對不會說這是需求破壞的跡象。同樣，如果我們從一個區域到另一個區域，種植者的情緒很強烈，利潤也很強勁。第一季度離岸市場的承諾實際上與我們經營的關鍵地區的需求以及我們銷售的幾乎每個地區的低庫存水平有關。所以我們有點走向市場，一個大顆粒的市場——對不起，今年第一季度的標準級產品一直是東南亞，我們看到那裡的棕櫚油價格非常強勁，創紀錄的棕櫚油價格。因此需求強勁，而且 Canpotex 肯定會對東南亞的標準級產品做出有意義的承諾。然後再次轉向美國，我們的秋季申請季表現強勁。因此，美國的種植者現在正在尋找這裡的春天，並尋求支撐供應。

And then Brazil, again, record demand in 2021, where we're anticipating very strong demand in 2020 to again -- and while inventories have grown a little bit in Brazil, it's -- the inventory growth is small compared to the overall growth in the market. And so the Brazilian grower also looking to shore up supply. So no, at this stage, we are not seeing demand disruption, in fact, grower margins are strong.

然後是巴西，2021 年的需求再次創紀錄，我們預計 2020 年的需求將再次強勁——儘管巴西的庫存略有增長，但與巴西的整體增長相比，庫存增長很小市場。因此，巴西種植者也在尋求增加供應。所以不，在這個階段，我們沒有看到需求中斷，事實上，種植者的利潤很強勁。

And your question about our 5 million tonnes. And I'd just say, Ben, we just want to take a very pragmatic approach to this. When we increase production, we have to go open up ground, which is expensive. We have to install infrastructure. We have to maintain that ground if demand comes off. We still have to maintain that ground. We have to hire people. We have to put mining machines at faces. And so absolutely in a planned and thoughtful way can ramp up from 14 -- 13.7 million to 14.3 million tonnes. So we can ramp that up on a pace basis but we're going to do it in a very pragmatic way because if the supply side issues go away quickly, then we don't want to be left with all these costs. So we can bring on production in a planful way, and that's the way we're going to do it.

還有你關於我們 500 萬噸的問題。我只想說，Ben，我們只想對此採取非常務實的方法。當我們增加產量時，我們必須開闢土地，這很昂貴。我們必須安裝基礎設施。如果需求下降，我們必須保持這一立場。我們仍然必須保持這一立場。我們必須僱人。我們必須將採礦機放在工作面上。因此，絕對有計劃和深思熟慮的方式可以從 14 - 1370 萬噸增加到 1430 萬噸。因此，我們可以逐步提高這一速度，但我們將以非常務實的方式進行，因為如果供應方面的問題很快消失，那麼我們不希望留下所有這些成本。所以我們可以有計劃地進行生產，這就是我們要做的方式。

Your next question will come from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Wondering if you could give a little more color on your nitrogen guidance for the year and in particular, how you see the shape of the year and maybe more specifically, how you're thinking about the second half, maybe some of the energy or cost curve assumptions that are baked into it?

想知道你是否可以在今年的氮指導上多一點顏色，特別是你如何看待今年的形狀，也許更具體地說，你對下半年的看法，也許是一些能源或成本融入其中的曲線假設？

Yes. Great. Thanks, Vincent. So again, it's a strong drop in the ag fundamentals, supply-side events in nitrogen as well. But I'll hand that over to Raef Sully to provide more color.

是的。偉大的。謝謝，文森特。同樣，這是農業基本面的大幅下跌，氮供應方面的事件也是如此。但我會將其交給 Raef Sully 以提供更多顏色。

Thanks, Vincent. So look, let me start just with an overall perspective of the ammonia market. Supply and demand there -- underlying supply and demand is tight. That market has been growing at something like 2 million to 3 million tonnes a year, and we have not seen that additional production build out at the same rate. And then, of course, to make matters worse, we saw the spike in gas prices in Europe that led to some shut-ins and so a very tight situation.

謝謝，文森特。所以看，讓我從氨市場的整體觀點開始。那裡的供求關係——潛在的供求關係緊張。該市場每年以 200 萬噸到 300 萬噸的速度增長，我們還沒有看到額外的產量以同樣的速度增長。然後，當然，更糟糕的是，我們看到歐洲天然氣價格飆升導致一些關閉，因此情況非常緊張。

Now going forward, we would think -- but I think the forecast for gas prices in Europe remain above $20 for the rest of the year. That, of course, puts the floor under ammonia going forward. Urea, similarly, very tight global supply and demand situation. We're seeing restrictions on exports from China that was about 2.5 million tonnes last year that won't be in the market this year. We're seeing increased demand in India, good strong demand, grow economics in North America. So again, very tight market similar picture.

現在展望未來，我們會認為——但我認為歐洲天然氣價格的預測在今年餘下時間保持在 20 美元以上。當然，這會使地板在氨氣下向前發展。尿素同樣，全球供需形勢十分緊張。我們看到去年對中國出口的限制約為 250 萬噸，而今年將不會進入市場。我們看到印度的需求增加，需求強勁，北美經濟增長。再次，非常緊張的市場類似的畫面。

What I would suggest is that in North America -- sorry, in Europe, we'll see gas pricing above $20. In North America, I think we'll see gas prices in the U.S. be in that range of $3.75 to $4.25 providing us a very good advantage position. So overall, I think we see some really good strong pricing throughout the year. We do think there'll be a reset in summer than normally is. There's going to be a lull in demand at that point. It's hard to get product out the door. So we'll see some pricing reset. But we think, overall, we'll see some good strong pricing continue in the second half. And overall, average pricing for this year will be higher than last year, and we'll see the nitrogen business performing better and we've got the forecast out there the minute I think it's going to be a good strong year for us.

我的建議是在北美——抱歉，在歐洲，我們會看到汽油價格超過 20 美元。在北美，我認為我們會看到美國的汽油價格在 3.75 美元到 4.25 美元之間，為我們提供了非常好的優勢地位。所以總的來說，我認為我們全年都看到了一些非常好的強勁定價。我們確實認為夏天會比往常進行重置。屆時需求將出現停滯。很難將產品推出市場。所以我們會看到一些定價重置。但我們認為，總體而言，下半年我們將看到一些良好的強勁定價。總體而言，今年的平均價格將高於去年，我們將看到氮氣業務表現更好，並且我們已經有了預測，我認為這對我們來說將是一個強勁的一年。

Your next question will come from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的史蒂夫·伯恩（Steve Byrne）。

I was wondering if your Retail business has visibility into 2 items. One would be Nutrien application rates either from increased soil sampling, a service that you have and maybe orders for more variable rate application or from farmer calculations to increase returns by trimming application rates. Do you expect much of that for this spring?

我想知道您的零售業務是否對 2 件商品具有可見性。一種是 Nutrien 施用率，要么來自增加土壤採樣，您擁有的一項服務，並且可能訂購更多可變施用率，要么來自農民計算，以通過削減施用率來增加回報。你對今年春天有太多期待嗎？

And then the other item that I was hoping you'd share some visibility on would be your forecast for planning intentions, you have a forecast for U.S. corn soybean acreage. Is that based on your own economic analysis? Or is that based on seed orders from your Retail business?

然後我希望你能分享一些可見性的另一個項目是你對計劃意圖的預測，你對美國玉米大豆種植面積的預測。這是基於你自己的經濟分析嗎？還是基於您零售業務的種子訂單？

Great. Thank you, Steve. So I'll pass the first question over to Jeff Tarsi, our Head of Retail and then Interim Head of Retail and then over to Jason Newton, our Chief Economist, for your second question. So Jeff?

偉大的。謝謝你，史蒂夫。因此，我將把第一個問題交給我們的零售主管 Jeff Tarsi，然後交給零售臨時主管，然後交給我們的首席經濟學家 Jason Newton，回答您的第二個問題。那麼傑夫?

Yes. Steve, and I'll take these questions in part. As it relates to application rates, and obviously, we would -- I would base that today off of what we saw this fall in the fourth quarter. And Steve, we certainly saw no pullback on rates, particularly across the corn belt. And as you well know, a lot of those rates are dependent on what the size of the crop was and how much P&K we had removed based on that and yields were very strong in most areas last year. And so growers -- what we saw this fall was growers went right in with their programs like they've done over the last 2 or 3 years.

是的。史蒂夫，我將部分回答這些問題。因為它與申請率有關，很明顯，我們會 - 我今天會根據我們在第四季度秋季看到的情況來確定這一點。史蒂夫，我們當然沒有看到利率回落，尤其是在整個玉米帶。正如你所知道的，其中很多比率取決於作物的規模以及我們在此基礎上去除了多少 P&K，去年大多數地區的產量都非常強勁。所以種植者——我們今年秋天看到的是種植者像他們在過去 2 或 3 年所做的那樣直接參與了他們的計劃。

As it relates to soil testing, I looked at some numbers the other day and soil testing is very strong. If I look at a year-over-year number with out of Waypoint Analytical our soil tests were up -- total number of soil tests that ran through there were up somewhere between 3% and 5%. And so -- and you got to remember that, that came off at an extremely strong year in '20. So we continue to see the direction move really strongly in that rate in that capacity. And I think we'll see a lot more testing this spring as well for those that didn't get in this fall and make some applications as it relates to that.

因為它與土壤測試有關，前幾天我看了一些數字，土壤測試非常強。如果我看一下使用 Waypoint Analytical 的同比數字，我們的土壤測試數量有所增加——通過那裡的土壤測試總數增加了 3% 到 5% 之間。所以——你必須記住，那是在 20 世紀極其強勁的一年。因此，我們繼續看到方向以這種能力的速度非常強勁地移動。我認為今年春天我們也會看到更多的測試，以及那些在今年秋天沒有得到的測試，並提出一些與此相關的應用程序。

From a standpoint of variable rate, we've seen that increase over the last 10 or 15 years. The days of blanket rate applications just really don't exist that much anymore. And our machinery is set up to date to run variable rate. Our digital platform we have today and some of the tools that we have to be able to go in and map those acres and build those prescriptions, specifically off of the soil testing that we're doing, we're able to take that information and slingshot it back to an applicator and vary our rates as we go across any individual fields.

從可變利率的角度來看，我們已經看到過去 10 或 15 年的增長。一攬子利率申請的日子真的不復存在了。我們的機器是最新的，可以運行可變速率。我們今天擁有的數字平台以及我們必須能夠進入並繪製這些土地並製定這些處方的一些工具，特別是我們正在進行的土壤測試，我們能夠獲取這些信息並將其彈回塗抹器並在我們穿越任何單個領域時改變我們的費率。

So we're very optimistic about what we're seeing there. We're optimistic in late summer, we're going to release Echelon 2.0, which is our new digital tool as it relates to precision agriculture, and that will give us even more capabilities with our growers and allow our agronomists more real-time information as we sit with our growers and fill these prescription plans for them to help them maximize ROI.

因此，我們對在那裡看到的情況非常樂觀。我們對夏末持樂觀態度，我們將發布 Echelon 2.0，這是我們與精準農業相關的新數字工具，它將為我們的種植者提供更多能力，並讓我們的農藝師獲得更多實時信息當我們與種植者坐在一起並為他們填寫這些處方計劃時，以幫助他們最大限度地提高投資回報率。

From a crop standpoint, then I'll let Jason expand on this a little bit more. But Steve, we just don't see a lot of movement. To date, corn to me looks basically flat to what it looked like last year, soy the same. And yes, we base that off of what our seed book looks like. We started booking seeds last year in September. So obviously, we're well into that process and what we're looking at and what we've got booked today, we just don't see a lot of movement. Movement if it comes or come will be more prevalent in the South, and that's probably where they've been a little bit slower to make some decisions because they have so many crop options in that area.

從作物的角度來看，我將讓 Jason 對此進行更多擴展。但是史蒂夫，我們只是沒有看到很多動靜。迄今為止，在我看來，玉米與去年基本持平，大豆也是如此。是的，我們以種子書的外觀為基礎。我們去年九月開始預訂種子。所以很明顯，我們已經很好地進入了這個過程，我們正在關注什麼以及我們今天已經預訂了什麼，我們只是沒有看到很多動靜。移動在南方將更加普遍，這可能是他們做出一些決定的速度有點慢，因為他們在該地區有很多作物選擇。

Jason, I don't know if you want to add something to that?

傑森，我不知道你是否想添加一些東西？

No, I'd just add to this to give our range for crop acreage expect 91 million to 93 million acres of corn, 87 million, 89 million acres of soybeans. And we're really basing that range off a combination of economic analysis, looking at the economics of growing crops. And we know today the prospective margins for both corn and soybeans are historically high, strong competition for acreage and also look at the SMBs and what's needed from an acreage standpoint. And then we're really fortunate to have Jeff and his team to run the economic assumptions by and get in the market intelligence on seed sales and so on that helped to make the forecast more robust.

不，我只是補充一下，我們的作物種植面積範圍預計為 9100 萬至 9300 萬英畝玉米，8700 萬英畝，8900 萬英畝大豆。我們實際上是基於經濟分析的組合，著眼於種植作物的經濟性。而且我們今天知道玉米和大豆的預期利潤率都處於歷史高位，對種植面積的激烈競爭，並且從種植面積的角度來看中小企業以及需要什麼。然後我們真的很幸運讓 Jeff 和他的團隊進行經濟假設並獲得有關種子銷售的市場情報等，這有助於使預測更加穩健。

And I don't want to leave out our important Canadian market because the fundamentals around canola are very strong as well. And we've seen a very strong booking on receipt, our proven seed varieties in Canada and the same with our Dyna-Gro and corn and soybeans in the U.S. market.

我不想忽略我們重要的加拿大市場，因為油菜籽的基本面也非常強勁。我們已經看到非常強勁的收貨預訂，我們在加拿大經過驗證的種子品種以及我們在美國市場上的 Dyna-Gro 以及玉米和大豆。

Your next question will come from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

What do you think about of the ability of Belarus colleague to ship out of (inaudible) in Russia? Do you know of any cargoes that have gone out or any commitments? Have you received any inquiries from Belarusian customers or typical customers? Do you see as much of their product on the water as you would normally see?

您如何看待白俄羅斯同事從俄羅斯（聽不清）運出的能力？你知道有什麼貨物出去了或者有什麼承諾嗎？您是否收到過白俄羅斯客戶或典型客戶的諮詢？您在水上看到的產品與您通常看到的一樣多嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. And I missed which sort of broke up there, which port of Russia. But I'll just say that we've looked very closely at that. And Port of St. Petersburg is always the closest, but it's -- I think it's clear that there's not a lot of capacity at the Port of St. Petersburg. There's already a lot of product moving through that port. And then further to the north there is [Murmansk]. Again, we've looked at that one closely. It's 2,000 kilometers from the Belarusian production, and I think a challenge as well. So -- and then there's relative to East, but that track is a very long track, 7,000 kilometers to China. And so the options we think are limited for BPC getting access to tidewater at the moment. And I'm sure they're working very hard on that. With respect to what we're seeing in the market, it is absolutely the case that we have had some traditional BPC [caps who] is inquiring about volumes. And it is also the case that we're seeing less BPC volumes shipping at the moment.

是的。謝謝，傑夫。我錯過了那裡的哪種分手，俄羅斯的哪個港口。但我只想說我們已經非常仔細地研究過了。聖彼得堡港始終是最近的，但我認為很明顯，聖彼得堡港的運力並不大。已經有很多產品通過該端口移動。然後再往北有[摩爾曼斯克]。再一次，我們仔細研究了那個。它距離白俄羅斯的生產基地有 2000 公里，我認為這也是一個挑戰。所以 - 然後是相對於東方，但那條軌道是一條很長的軌道，到中國有 7,000 公里。因此，我們認為目前 BPC 獲得潮水的選擇是有限的。我相信他們正在為此努力。關於我們在市場上看到的情況，我們絕對有一些傳統的 BPC [caps who] 正在詢問交易量。而且我們目前看到的 BPC 出貨量也在減少。

Your next question will come from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson。

We will move on to the next question in queue from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們將繼續討論 P.J. Juvekar 和 Citi 的下一個問題。

I was wondering why wouldn't you ramp up your potash production more aggressively to take advantage of the Belarus situation, higher grain prices, low inventories. I mean, you've been waiting for this kind of situation to ramp up your production for years, if not decades, carrying that excess capacity. So just can you talk a little bit about why wouldn't you bring on this capacity faster in potash?

我想知道您為什麼不更積極地提高鉀肥產量，以利用白俄羅斯的情況、較高的穀物價格和低庫存。我的意思是，你多年來一直在等待這種情況來提高你的產量，如果不是幾十年的話，還要承受過剩的產能。所以你能談談為什麼你不更快地在鉀肥中實現這種能力嗎？

Great. Thanks, P.J. I -- Yes, we are. We are ramping up capacity. Again, with this additional 1 million tonnes that we did in 2021, and now building off of that into 2022. And again, preserving additional capacity over and above our 13.7 million to 14.3 million tonnes. What we're trying to do, and I say it again, walk a very practical and pragmatic line here of getting product to our customers. And we're doing that at the moment, watching the market in this Belarusian situation and how long this may last. And then always important, staying to the left on the cost curve and managing our costs. And so it's trying to strike that balance. And again, I'll say that I would say we're trying to avoid building church for Easter Sunday because opening up ground and maintaining infrastructure, hiring people, only to see some of these potentially near-term supply side events go away, get stuck with all those costs. So that's the practical approach we're trying to take.

偉大的。謝謝，P.J. 我——是的，我們是。我們正在提高產能。同樣，我們在 2021 年增加了 100 萬噸，現在將其擴大到 2022 年。再次，保留超過 1370 萬噸至 1430 萬噸的額外產能。我們正在嘗試做的事情，我再說一遍，在這裡走一條非常實際和務實的路線，將產品提供給我們的客戶。我們目前正在這樣做，關注白俄羅斯局勢下的市場以及這可能持續多長時間。然後總是很重要，保持在成本曲線的左側並管理我們的成本。所以它試圖達到這種平衡。再說一次，我會說我們正試圖避免在復活節星期天建造教堂，因為開放場地和維護基礎設施，僱用人員，只是看到這些潛在的近期供應方事件中的一些消失，得到堅持所有這些成本。這就是我們正在嘗試採取的實際方法。

Your next question will come from the line of Michael Tupholme with TD Securities, Inc.

您的下一個問題將來自道明證券公司的 Michael Tuholme。

Related to the last question and answer, regarding the potash business, if you do decide to add incremental production, can you talk about how quickly you can ramp up that function, both in terms of the 500,000 tonnes of flex capacity and then anything also more significant beyond that? And then just as a follow-on along the same lines, can you also talk about expected timing for bringing on the incremental 500,000 tonnes of nitrogen production based on the Phase 2 expansions?

關於最後一個問題和答案，關於鉀肥業務，如果您決定增加增量生產，您能否談談您能以多快的速度提升該功能，無論是在 500,000 噸的彈性產能方面還是其他方面除此之外還有意義嗎？然後，作為沿線的後續行動，您能否談談在第二階段擴建的基礎上增加 500,000 噸氮產量的預期時機？

Yes. Good one. Again, with respect to potash I should now hand it over to Raef for nitrogen. But again, 14.3 million tonnes is the top end of what we're guiding to today and preserving an additional 0.5 million tonnes at least after that, that we could bring on in the second half of this year.

是的。好一個。再一次，關於鉀肥，我現在應該把它交給 Raef 來換取氮氣。但同樣，1430 萬噸是我們今天指導的上限，並且至少在此之後保留額外的 50 萬噸，我們可以在今年下半年實現這一目標。

And I think in terms of pacing, that's how we can sort of think about it is increments in sort of that ballpark as, again, we're making these decisions, mine development, open up ground, hire people, some capital expenditures as we watch the market unfold, as we watch some of these near-term supply side events as our customers are looking for more volume.

而且我認為就節奏而言，這就是我們可以考慮的方式，這是在某種程度上的增量，因為我們再次做出這些決定，礦山開發，開闢土地，僱用人員，一些資本支出，因為我們觀察市場的發展，我們觀察一些近期供應方面的事件，因為我們的客戶正在尋找更多的交易量。

So Michael. Just in relation to the nitrogen expansions, I think it was mentioned, we have finished our Phase 1 projects. The last major component of that was Borger, which was finished in September. It's now operating at the higher rates. So this year should be the first year we see the full benefits of those Phase 1 brownfield expansions. The second phase has started but completion of the projects will be a 3-year period for '23, '24 and '25. The bulk of it should be finished by '24. The last project will be in '25. So we just bring those on gradually. It's a good mix of urea and UAN as well as the ammonia to supply those additional downstream products.

所以邁克爾。就氮氣擴張而言，我想有人提到過，我們已經完成了第一階段的項目。其中最後一個主要組成部分是 Borger，於 9 月完成。它現在以更高的速度運行。所以今年應該是我們看到第一階段棕地擴張的全部好處的第一年。第二階段已經開始，但項目的完成時間為 23 年、24 年和 25 年的 3 年。大部分應該在 24 年之前完成。最後一個項目將在 25 年。所以我們只是逐漸地把它們帶上。它是尿素和 UAN 以及氨的良好組合，可供應這些額外的下游產品。

Your next question will come from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題將來自高盛的亞當薩繆爾森。

I'm sorry about that. I guess my question is on capital allocation. And then really just trying to think about the new buyback authorization you've committed to at least $2 billion this year ratably and upside beyond that implied by the 10% of shares. Can you help us think about kind of alternative uses of the cash that would be waiting in the wings? Or is it really just a question of what cash flow and EBITDA looks like this year that would dictate the upside? Is there -- does the M&A pipeline kind of give you some line of sight to potentially some larger things coming through? I'm just trying to get a sense of how -- where the major capital allocation will come to realize?

對此我很抱歉。我想我的問題是關於資本配置。然後真的只是想考慮一下你今年承諾的至少 20 億美元的新回購授權，並且比 10% 的股份所暗示的要高。你能幫我們考慮一下即將到來的現金的替代用途嗎？還是真的只是今年現金流量和 EBITDA 的情況會決定上行空間的問題？有沒有 - 併購管道是否讓您對潛在的一些更大的事情有所了解？我只是想了解主要資本配置將如何實現？

Great. Thanks for the question. I'll pass it over to Pedro.

偉大的。謝謝你的問題。我會把它交給佩德羅。

Okay. Adam, thanks for the question. So I think we are in a very kind of strong cash position, not only from a point of view of EBITDA generation but also cash conversion this year. Our cash conversion has fluctuated overtime and we think at this point in time it's like 75% and we are fairly confident, of course, on the first $2 billion of the share buyback and we're kind of balancing those throughout the year. We're going to be doing those throughout the year. And that's the reason why we kind of committed to that.

好的。亞當，謝謝你的問題。因此，我認為我們的現金狀況非常強勁，不僅從 EBITDA 產生的角度來看，而且從今年的現金轉換來看。我們的現金轉換隨著時間的推移而波動，我們認為此時它大約是 75%，當然，我們對前 20 億美元的股票回購相當有信心，我們全年都在平衡這些。我們將全年都在做這些事情。這就是為什麼我們承諾這樣做的原因。

In respect to the additional $2 billion, frankly, when we started doing this forecast, since we did that, there was a few things that actually firmed up in the market, specifically the Indian and China contracts and some of the geopolitical risks that we have here. So it makes us even more confident on our guidance for the year.

關於額外的 20 億美元，坦率地說，當我們開始做這個預測時，因為我們做了那個，有一些事情在市場上實際上是堅挺的，特別是印度和中國的合同以及我們面臨的一些地緣政治風險這裡。因此，這使我們對今年的指導更有信心。

So should that additional cash materialize throughout the year? We do have an option of $2 billion that we are seeing there. And of course, we'll see how the year develops. But this $2 billion, we are going to evaluate some of the options that we have for advancement throughout the year in specific, some opportunities in Retail that we have. There's also the evaluation of some low carbon ammonia that we're evaluating as a project. And we'll try to utilize as much as possible for very attractive projects that we have. And should we not be able to allocate those this year, our intent is always not to hoard cash, but to distribute to the shareholders as we have done historically. And therefore we'll overlay additional share buybacks on top of that. So that's what's behind the additional 5% NCIB that we have because we are committing to 5 and with an additional cash flow that will be used for the other 5.

那麼，額外的現金是否應該全年兌現？我們確實在那裡看到了 20 億美元的選擇權。當然，我們將看到這一年如何發展。但是，這 20 億美元，我們將評估我們在全年發展的一些選擇，特別是我們在零售領域的一些機會。還有一些我們正在作為一個項目評估的低碳氨的評估。我們將嘗試盡可能多地利用我們擁有的非常有吸引力的項目。如果我們今年無法分配這些，我們的意圖始終不是囤積現金，而是像我們過去所做的那樣分配給股東。因此，我們將在此之上疊加額外的股票回購。這就是我們擁有額外 5% NCIB 的原因，因為我們承諾 5% 並且額外的現金流將用於其他 5%。

Your next question will come from the line of John Roberts with UBS.

您的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的約翰·羅伯茨 (John Roberts)。

Welcome, Ken, and good luck. On Slide 22, on the stocks-to-use ratio, could you give us your view on what the global stocks-to-use ratios are, whether they're higher or lower than the U.S.? And do you think constraints on nitrogen outside North America could constrain global crop yields?

歡迎，肯，祝你好運。在幻燈片 22 上，關於庫存與使用比率，您能否就全球庫存與使用比率是什麼，是高於還是低於美國？您認為北美以外對氮的限制會限制全球作物產量嗎？

Great. Thank you, John. So I'll pass the first question to Jason Newton, our Chief Economist, and then over to Raef on the nitrogen question.

偉大的。謝謝你，約翰。所以我將把第一個問題交給我們的首席經濟學家傑森牛頓，然後再交給拉夫關於氮的問題。

John, as we look around the world at the stocks-to-use ratio, they are really tight as well. And actually, if you look at grain stocks outside of China, they're at the lowest level since 2007. So really historically tight. As we know, there's crops growing in multiple seasons, given Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and we already know Brazil and Argentina are having struggles with soybean production. So as we look forward to the coming year, there's already major growing regions with production challenges that will be supportive to maintaining a tight supply-demand balance going forward. Whether we're looking at corn or wheat or soybeans, palm oil, really across the board, across major crops, supply and balances are tight currently by historical standards.

約翰，當我們環顧世界各地的庫存與使用比率時，它們也非常緊張。事實上，如果你看看中國以外的糧食庫存，它們處於 2007 年以來的最低水平。歷史上真的很緊張。正如我們所知，考慮到南北半球，作物分多個季節生長，我們已經知道巴西和阿根廷在大豆生產方面遇到了困難。因此，在我們展望來年的時候，已經有一些主要的種植區面臨生產挑戰，這將有助於維持未來的供需平衡。無論我們關注的是玉米、小麥還是大豆、棕櫚油，從歷史標準來看，目前所有主要作物的供應和平衡都很緊張。

So the second part of the question was will we see any demand destruction tighten there. Look, I think a lot depends on how quickly the season starts and the length of it. I am a little bit concerned that within North America, for example. There may be constraints from a transportation and distribution perspective. I think globally, if we don't have any constraints around transportation and distribution, I think, most of the people will be able to get most of what they need. But previous comments, it will be at a good price because there's an underlying tightness in the supply there.

所以問題的第二部分是我們會看到那裡的任何需求破壞收緊。看，我認為很大程度上取決於賽季開始的速度和長度。例如，在北美，我有點擔心。從運輸和分銷的角度來看，可能存在限制。我認為，在全球範圍內，如果我們在運輸和配送方面沒有任何限制，我認為，大多數人將能夠獲得他們所需要的大部分東西。但之前的評論認為，它的價格會很好，因為那裡的供應存在潛在的緊張。

Your next question will come from the line of Michael Piken with Cleveland Research.

您的下一個問題將來自 Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken。

Just wanted to get your sense for the retail guidance and whether there's any tuck-in acquisitions built in, in kind of your growth strategy for both internationally and domestic in this environment where it seems like a lot of retailers just came off a pretty good year.

只是想了解一下零售指南，以及是否有任何內置的收購，在這種環境下，你在國際和國內的增長戰略，看起來很多零售商剛剛度過了一個不錯的一年.

Great. Thank you, Mike. Over to you, Jeff.

偉大的。謝謝你，邁克。交給你了，傑夫。

Sorry about that. Michael, and we do have -- we're pretty conservative with what we have built in. In our plan for this tuck-in acquisitions, as you know, we're at the top of the cycle right now so we're a little bit more judicious when we're looking at those opportunities. I will say that I think that pipeline is still there, and there are opportunities there as well. Obviously, and we continue to see a pretty rich pipeline in Australia. And obviously, Brazil is a growth area for us. And so we wouldn't necessarily turn those as tuck in. So when I look at tuck-in acquisitions, I'm primarily looking at North America and Australia. And again, those opportunities are there. We want to be careful with where we are in this point of the cycle and the valuations, we put on them, but we continue to look at those opportunities and act on them.

對於那個很抱歉。邁克爾，我們確實有——我們對我們已經建立的東西非常保守。正如你所知，在我們的收購計劃中，我們現在處於週期的頂端，所以我們是當我們看到這些機會時，會更加明智。我會說我認為管道仍然存在，那裡也有機會。顯然，我們繼續在澳大利亞看到相當豐富的管道。顯然，巴西對我們來說是一個增長領域。因此，我們不一定會將這些視為折入。因此，當我查看折入收購時，我主要關注的是北美和澳大利亞。再一次，這些機會就在那裡。我們要小心我們在周期的這個階段和估值，我們投入它們，但我們繼續關注這些機會並採取行動。

Your next question will come from the line of Steven Hansen with Raymond James.

您的下一個問題將來自 Steven Hansen 和 Raymond James。

Just a quick question on the allocation of your tonnes into different end markets here. Just looking at the Canpotex data in the report, it does show a pretty marked shift away from China and India last year towards Southeast Asia and LatAm. You've got a couple of new contracts signed here this week. So I think we'll see some normalization in that data, but we've also got to consider the vacuum created by the BPC tonnes that could be great. So I guess the question is, how should we think about the allocation of those tonnes going forward into the higher better use markets versus the past?

這裡只是一個關於將您的噸分配到不同終端市場的快速問題。僅看看報告中的 Canpotex 數據，它確實顯示出去年從中國和印度向東南亞和拉美的明顯轉變。本週你在這裡簽了幾份新合同。因此，我認為我們會看到該數據的一些正常化，但我們還必須考慮 BPC 噸造成的真空可能很大。所以我想問題是，與過去相比，我們應該如何考慮將這些噸分配到更高更好利用的市場？

Yes. No, great question, Steven. Thanks for that. I think what you can expect is with the China and India contract settled now you can expect to return to sort of historical market share for Canpotex in each of the major markets that they serve. And so historically, they've been about 1/3 of the Brazilian market. They've been about 1/4 of the Chinese market, around 1/3 of the Indian market. And then in North America, about 44%. And so again, in terms of allocation among the offshore markets, again, in those contract, we will expect more standard grade going into China and India. It is true that last year, 2021, with that contract settled at well below market, Canpotex was diverting volumes to other markets, that's true. But again, with these related settlements, you can expect to return to more sort of traditional market shares.

是的。不，很好的問題，史蒂文。感謝那。我認為你可以期待的是，現在中國和印度的合同已經結算，你可以期待 Canpotex 在他們服務的每個主要市場中恢復到某種歷史市場份額。因此，從歷史上看，它們約佔巴西市場的 1/3。他們已經佔據了中國市場的 1/4 左右，印度市場的 1/3 左右。然後在北美，大約 44%。同樣，就離岸市場的分配而言，在這些合同中，我們預計會有更多的標準品級進入中國和印度。確實，去年，即 2021 年，由於該合約的結算價遠低於市場，Canpotex 正在將交易量轉移到其他市場，這是真的。但同樣，通過這些相關的和解，您可以期待回歸更多的傳統市場份額。

We do have time for one final question in queue, which will come from the line of Adrien Tamagno with Berenberg.

我們確實有時間回答最後一個問題，該問題將來自 Adrien Tamagno 和 Berenberg 的發言。

I have 2 actually. First, on Belarus. Do you see actually the sanctions having an impact on their growth projects, not the existing capacity because it could be that under sanction of the country might not be able to actually handle well its supply chain and not be able to deliver on its growth in the coming years? Or you think this will not be the case and they are well integrated domestically?

我實際上有2個。首先，關於白俄羅斯。您是否真的看到製裁對其增長項目產生影響，而不是現有產能，因為在該國的製裁下，可能無法真正處理好其供應鏈，也無法實現其增長未來幾年？或者您認為情況並非如此，它們在國內已經很好地整合了？

And secondly, for the low-carbon ammonia, do you see appetite from a farmer perspective currently or we need carbon pricing to be more than just voluntary for this to really take off?

其次，對於低碳氨，您目前是否從農民的角度看到了需求，或者我們需要碳定價不僅僅是自願才能真正起飛？

Great. Thanks, Adrien, for the questions. And so yes, with respect to your question about Belarus, I mean we are expecting some additional volume, new volume in the market here in 2022, but I'll pass it over to Jason Newton for the longer-term view.

偉大的。謝謝阿德里安的問題。所以是的，關於你關於白俄羅斯的問題，我的意思是我們預計 2022 年市場上會有一些額外的數量，新的數量，但我會把它交給 Jason Newton 以獲得更長期的觀點。

Sure. Adrien, we did see some ramp up, we believe, at least of the [Petrikov] project in 2021 in Belarus. And I think one of the -- it's uncertain whether their sanctions will have any impact on them expanding or ramping up production further. But with the constraints on shipping, they may be restricted in how much they can actually produce within Belarus, which could slow the ramp-up depending on how they allocate the volume within their system. So I think probably the sanctions and restrictions on their exports may have a bigger impact than sanctions with respect to construction of the project.

當然。 Adrien，我們相信，至少在 2021 年白俄羅斯的 [Petrikov] 項目中，我們確實看到了一些進展。我認為其中之一 - 不確定他們的製裁是否會對他們擴大或進一步提高產量產生任何影響。但由於運輸方面的限制，他們可能會在白俄羅斯境內實際生產多少受到限制，這可能會根據他們在系統內分配數量的方式減緩產量增長。因此，我認為對他們出口的製裁和限制可能比對項目建設的製裁產生更大的影響。

Yes. And then on the low carbon ammonia question, Adrien, over to Raef.

是的。然後關於低碳氨的問題，Adrien，交給 Raef。

Thanks, Adrien. So look, we're all watching this carefully. What's apparent, I think, to us, is that the first place we'll see low carbon ammonia used will be as an energy substitution. So power generation in countries that don't have access to other sources and also in transportation. And you will have seen that we signed an agreement that the next vessel -- the next vessel we get will be ammonia powered. And we think that, that's a good application for it. I do think there is growing demand in the agriculture sector driven by the need for some of the crops to go or be classified as renewable or lower carbon. And I think you will see that grow over time. So the answer is small today but growing. And in the meantime, we'll see, I think, strong demand from those other sources that we talked about.

謝謝，阿德里安。所以看，我們都在仔細觀察。我認為，對我們來說顯而易見的是，我們將首先看到使用低碳氨將作為能源替代品。因此，在無法獲得其他資源的國家以及交通運輸中發電。你會看到我們簽署了一項協議，下一艘船——我們得到的下一艘船將是氨動力的。我們認為，這是一個很好的應用程序。我確實認為，由於需要將一些作物歸類為可再生或低碳，這推動了農業部門的需求不斷增長。我想你會看到隨著時間的推移而增長。所以今天的答案很小，但正在增長。同時，我認為，我們將看到我們談到的其他來源的強勁需求。

All right. And we have reached the end of the allotted time for our Q&A session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Jeff Holzman for closing remarks.

好的。我們的問答環節的分配時間已經結束。我現在想將電話轉回給 Jeff Holzman 進行結束髮言。

Thank you for joining us today. If you have follow-up questions, feel free to reach out to Investor Relations. Have a good day.

感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有後續問題，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。