Nutrien Ltd (NTR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2025 first-quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Holzman, VP of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將電話會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Jeff Holzman。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Nutrien's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts.

謝謝您，接線生。早上好，歡迎參加 Nutrien 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。在我們進行此電話會議時，我們對未來預期、計畫和前景所做的各種陳述都包含前瞻性資訊。在得出這些結論和預測時應用了某些假設。

Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions is contained in our quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A and Annual Information Form.

因此，實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性資訊中的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素和假設的更多資訊包含在我們向股東提交的季度報告以及我們最新的年度報告、MD&A 和年度資訊表中。

I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO; and Mark Thompson, our CFO, for opening comments.

現在我將電話轉給 Nutrien 總裁兼執行長 Ken Seitz；以及我們的財務長 Mark Thompson 的開場發言。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today as we review our Q1 performance strategic priorities and the outlook for our business. Nutrien's first-quarter results were supported by the execution of operational efficiency and cost savings initiatives. We maintained our 2025 full-year guidance ranges as operating performance and capital allocation priorities are consistent with previous expectations. In recent months, geopolitical events and trade disruptions have created volatility in global financial markets. However, to this point, these issues have not impacted the outlook for our business.

早安.感謝您今天加入我們，我們將回顧第一季的業績策略重點和業務前景。Nutrien 第一季的業績得益於營運效率和成本節約計畫的實施。由於經營業績和資本配置重點與先前的預期一致，我們維持 2025 年全年指導範圍。近幾個月來，地緣政治事件和貿易中斷導致全球金融市場動盪。然而，到目前為止，這些問題尚未影響我們的業務前景。

Fertilizer market fundamentals have strengthened, supported by strong global demand and tight supplies. Canadian fertilizer products that are critical for crop production and food security continue to move across the border tariff-free. And our downstream retail network is well positioned on fertilizer and crop protection supplies to meet demand for the current growing season. US farmers intend to increase corn acres by approximately 5% in 2025, which is positive for crop input demand.

受全球需求強勁和供應緊張的支撐，化肥市場基本面已增強。對農作物生產和糧食安全至關重要的加拿大化肥產品繼續免關稅跨境運輸。我們的下游零售網絡在肥料和作物保護供應方面處於有利地位，可以滿足當前生長季節的需求。美國農民打算在2025年將玉米種植面積增加約5％，對作物投入需求有利。

We're seeing strong fertilizer application rates this spring, and our US retail fertilizer sales volumes were up 8% in April compared to the same period in 2024. As we plan for the remainder of the year, we will continue to position our supply chain to efficiently serve our grower customers in a dynamic market environment.

今年春季，我們看到化肥施用率很高，4 月美國零售化肥銷量與 2024 年同期相比成長了 8%。當我們規劃今年剩餘時間時，我們將繼續定位我們的供應鏈，以便在動態的市場環境中有效地為我們的種植者客戶提供服務。

Now turning to Potash. Global supply and demand fundamentals have strengthened significantly as spot market prices have increased by 10% to 20% since the beginning of 2025. We have maintained our annual global potash shipment forecast in the range of 71 million to 75 million tonnes with the current level of demand testing existing global operating and supply chain capabilities.

現在轉向鉀肥。全球供需基本面顯著增強，現貨市場價格自2025年初以來已上漲10%至20%。我們維持全球鉀肥年出貨量在 7,100 萬至 7,500 萬噸之間的預測，目前的需求水準正在考驗現有的全球營運和供應鏈能力。

Canpotex is fully committed for the second quarter due to strong demand in all major offshore spot markets. In China, a step change in potash consumption in recent years, combined with lower imports to begin 2025, has led to an estimated 1.1 million tonne reduction in its strategic reserve.

由於所有主要離岸現貨市場需求強勁，Canpotex 已完全投入第二季的生產。在中國，近年來鉀肥消費量大幅變化，加上2025年初進口量下降，導致其戰略儲備量預計減少110萬噸。

We anticipate favorable consumption trends and lower inventories will support strong import requirements in the second half of the year. Global urea and Nitrogen solutions markets have also strengthened considerably in 2025 due to seasonal demand and supply restrictions. In the US, the combination of higher corn acres and limited nitrogen applications this past fall is supporting demand, while trade flow shifts and constrained logistics have impacted supplies.

我們預計，良好的消費趨勢和較低的庫存將支持下半年強勁的進口需求。由於季節性需求和供應限制，2025 年全球尿素和氮氣溶液市場也大幅增強。在美國，去年秋季玉米種植面積增加和氮肥施用量有限支撐了需求，而貿易流變化和物流受限則影響了供應。

Nutrien is well positioned to optimize product mix from our low-cost nitrogen network to meet demand this spring. Beyond the fundamentals, our focus is to enhance our core business across the ag value chain and progress towards our 2026 performance targets, which provide a pathway for driving structural improvements to our earnings and free cash flow.

Nutrien 完全有能力優化我們低成本氮氣網路的產品組合，以滿足今年春季的需求。除了基本面之外，我們的重點是增強整個農業價值鏈的核心業務，並朝著 2026 年的績效目標邁進，這為推動我們的盈利和自由現金流的結構性改善提供了途徑。

In our Upstream business, we are leveraging our world-class asset base to bring on incremental low-cost fertilizer volumes as demand grows. This includes initiatives that enhance the safety reliability and low-cost position of our assets. Investments in our Midstream distribution network will continue to be a priority to ensure we can efficiently serve our customers and support our growth objectives over the long-term.

在我們的上游業務中，隨著需求的成長，我們利用世界一流的資產基礎來增加低成本肥料的產量。這包括提高我們資產的安全可靠性和低成本地位的措施。我們將繼續優先投資中游分銷網絡，以確保我們能夠有效地服務客戶並支持我們的長期成長目標。

Trade disruptions in recent years have further highlighted the importance of our leading global supply chain. In our Downstream retail business, we have well-defined growth opportunities. including the expansion of our proprietary products business, execution of network optimization projects and tuck-in acquisitions.

近年來的貿易中斷進一步凸顯了我們領先的全球供應鏈的重要性。在我們的下游零售業務中，我們擁有明確的成長機會。包括擴大我們的專有產品業務、執行網路優化項目和附加收購。

In the first quarter, we completed two acquisitions in the US, adding high-quality assets with a strong strategic fit within our retail network. Through actions to simplify our business and focus on core assets and markets, we have made meaningful progress on our cost savings and capital expenditure targets. We remain on track to achieve our $200 million target for consolidated annual cost savings in 2025, one year earlier than the original goal.

第一季度，我們在美國完成了兩項收購，增加了與我們的零售網路具有強大策略契合度的優質資產。透過簡化業務、專注於核心資產和市場的舉措，我們在成本節約和資本支出目標方面取得了有意義的進展。我們仍有望在 2025 年實現 2 億美元的年度綜合成本節約目標，比原定目標提早一年。

We have further optimized capital this year with planned extended -- expenditures down more than $500 million compared to 2023 levels. In addition, the divestiture of non-core assets has provided us with incremental cash flow. In the first quarter, we divested our remaining position in Sinofert, which was a passive equity ownership stake.

我們今年進一步優化了資本，計劃延長支出，與 2023 年的水準相比，減少 5 億多美元。此外，非核心資產的剝離為我們提供了增量現金流。第一季度，我們出售了在中化化肥的剩餘持股，這些持股均為被動股權。

Total proceeds from the divestiture during the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2025 amounted to $223 million. These actions further support Nutrien's ability to deploy capital towards high conviction priorities that improve earnings and free cash flow per share through the cycle.

去年第四季和 2025 年第一季資產剝離的總收益為 2.23 億美元。這些措施進一步支持了 Nutrien 將資本部署到高信念優先事項的能力，從而在整個週期中提高每股盈餘和自由現金流。

I will now turn it over to Mark to review our Q1 results, 2025 guidance and provide additional details on our capital allocation priorities.

現在，我將把時間交給馬克，讓他回顧我們的第一季業績、2025 年指引，並提供有關我們的資本配置重點的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Ken. As Ken described, our operating performance has progressed in-line with our previous expectations. In the first quarter, which is typically a seasonally slower period for our Downstream Retail business, Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $852 million. Retail adjusted EBITDA totaled $46 million, as weather-related delays reduced crop input sales in the US and Australia.

謝謝，肯。正如肯所描述的，我們的經營績效符合我們先前的預期。第一季通常是我們下游零售業務的季節性淡季，但 Nutrien 的調整後 EBITDA 達到 8.52 億美元。由於天氣原因造成的延誤減少了美國和澳洲的農作物投入品銷售，零售調整後的 EBITDA 總計 4,600 萬美元。

Retail expenses were down 5% compared to the prior year as we progressed cost savings initiatives. In Brazil, we are demonstrating greater stability in our business performance, supported by the execution of our margin improvement plans. We maintained our full-year retail adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $1.65 billion to $1.85 billion.

隨著我們推進成本節約計劃，零售費用與前一年相比下降了 5%。在巴西，在利潤率提升計畫的實施下，我們的業務表現更加穩定。我們維持全年零售調整後 EBITDA 指引範圍 16.5 億美元至 18.5 億美元。

Given the pace of field activity through early May, we expect the slower start applications in the first quarter will be made up in the second quarter. At the midpoint of our annual range, we anticipate year-over-year growth in crop Nutrien sales volumes, increased proprietary products gross margin and continued recovery in Brazil partially offset by a return to historical average crop protection product margins.

考慮到截至五月初的現場活動速度，我們預計第一季啟動較慢的申請將在第二季得到彌補。在我們年度範圍的中點，我們預計作物 Nutrien 銷售量將同比增長，專有產品毛利率將增加，巴西的持續復甦將部分被作物保護產品利潤率恢復到歷史平均水平所抵消。

In Potash, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $446 million in the first quarter, down from the prior year due to lower net selling prices. Our realized potash price in North America reflected the reset in values for the winter fill program while the improvement in our offshore selling price was driven by higher international benchmark values and lower logistics costs.

在鉀肥業務方面，我們第一季的調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤為 4.46 億美元，由於淨售價較低，低於去年同期。我們在北美實現的鉀肥價格反映了冬季填充計劃的價值重置，而我們海外銷售價格的提高則受到國際基準價值上升和物流成本下降的推動。

Our North American reference price increased 3 times following the completion of our winter fill program which we expect will support higher domestic selling prices in the second quarter. We utilized our extensive midstream distribution network to deliver 3.4 million tonnes of potash in the quarter, similar to the record levels sold in the same period of 2024.

在我們的冬季填充計劃完成後，我們的北美參考價格上漲了三倍，我們預計這將支持第二季國內銷售價格上漲。我們利用廣泛的中游分銷網絡在本季度交付了 340 萬噸鉀肥，與 2024 年同期的銷售創紀錄水平相當。

We expect annual potash sales volumes of 13.6 million to 14.4 million tonnes in- ine with our historical average share of global shipments. Our Nitrogen Operating Segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $408 million in the first quarter down from the prior year due to higher natural gas costs and lower equity earnings from our investment in Profertil.

我們預計鉀肥年銷量將達到 1,360 萬噸至 1,440 萬噸，與我們在全球出貨量中的歷史平均份額一致。我們的氮氣營運部門第一季的調整後 EBITDA 為 4.08 億美元，較上年同期下降，原因是天然氣成本上升以及我們對 Profertil 的投資股權收益下降。

Benchmark prices for urea and other upgraded nitrogen products have strengthened since the beginning of the year, while ammonia values have declined from historically strong levels in the fourth quarter of 2024. Our ammonia operating rate increased to 98% in the first quarter, supported by reduced maintenance downtime and improved reliability at our sites.

自今年年初以來，尿素和其他升級氮產品的基準價格有所走強，而氨的價格則從 2024 年第四季的歷史高點有所下降。由於維護停機時間減少和工廠可靠性提高，我們的氨氣開工率在第一季上升至 98%。

We expect annual nitrogen sales volumes in the range of 10.7 million to 11.2 million tonnes with higher quarterly volumes for the remainder of 2025 compared to the prior year. Given the recent volatility in global natural gas markets, we now project Henry Hub Natural Gas prices to average between $3.25 and $4 per MMBtu in 2025. Our Western Canadian nitrogen plants continue to benefit from low gas costs due to a wider price spread to Henry Hub compared to historical average levels.

我們預計 2025 年剩餘時間的年氮氣銷售量將在 1,070 萬噸至 1,120 萬噸之間，季度銷售量將高於前一年。鑑於近期全球天然氣市場的波動，我們目前預測 2025 年亨利港天然氣價格平均在每百萬英熱單位 3.25 美元至 4 美元之間。由於與歷史平均值相比，亨利港的價格差較大，我們位於加拿大西部的氮氣工廠繼續受益於較低的天然氣成本。

In Phosphate, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $61 million in the first quarter, down from the prior year, primarily due to the impact of lower production volumes and higher input costs. We continue to expect lower production levels in the first half of 2025 compared to last year and improved operating rates in the second half following the completion of planned turnaround activity.

在磷酸鹽業務方面，我們第一季的調整後 EBITDA 為 6,100 萬美元，低於去年同期，主要原因是產量下降和投入成本上升的影響。我們仍然預計，2025 年上半年的生產水準將低於去年，而隨著計畫中的扭虧為盈活動完成，下半年的營運率將會提高。

Our capital allocation priorities also remain consistent. We are focused on initiatives that support the achievement of our 2026 performance targets, optimizing investments in working capital and continuing to review non-core assets on our balance sheet, all of which we expect will enhance sources of cash flow over time.

我們的資本配置重點也保持一致。我們專注於支持實現 2026 年績效目標的舉措、優化營運資本投資並繼續審查資產負債表上的非核心資產，我們預計所有這些都將隨著時間的推移增強現金流來源。

From a use of cash perspective, we've committed $2 billion to $2.1 billion in capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and to progress a set of targeted growth investments that are aligned to the priorities that Ken previously described. This includes investments in our proprietary products business, retail network optimization, nitrogen debottleneck projects and potash mine automation.

從現金使用的角度來看，我們已承諾投入 20 億至 21 億美元的資金來維持安全可靠的運營，並推進一系列與肯之前描述的優先事項相一致的有針對性的增長投資。這包括對我們的專有產品業務、零售網路優化、氮氣瓶頸專案和鉀礦自動化的投資。

In February, we indicated that additional free cash flow in 2025 would be allocated to a narrow set of incremental growth opportunities and to share repurchases. Priorities that we expect will increase free cash flow per share. We've deployed capital on both fronts in 2025, completing two US retail acquisitions in the first quarter, and repurchasing 3.6 million shares for a total of $188 million as of May 6. We intend on continuing to repurchase shares on a ratable basis under our renewed NCIB Program that's authorized until the end of February 2026.

今年 2 月，我們表示，2025 年的額外自由現金流將分配給一系列增量成長機會和股票回購。我們預期的優先事項將增加每股自由現金流。2025 年，我們在兩個方面都部署了資本，第一季完成了兩項美國零售收購，截至 5 月 6 日，共回購了 360 萬股，總價值 1.88 億美元。我們打算根據授權有效期至 2026 年 2 月底的續期 NCIB 計劃繼續按比例回購股票。

I'll now turn it back to Ken.

現在我將話題轉回給肯。

Thanks, Mark. To summarize, we have a constructive outlook for our business as global fertilizer market fundamentals have tightened in 2025, supported by growing demand and tight supplies. We continue to monitor potential risks related to trade disruptions and have built a resilient business that is well positioned to respond under any scenario. We are taking a disciplined and intentional approach to capital allocation, prioritizing high-value investment opportunities, divesting non-core assets and returning cash to shareholders.

謝謝，馬克。總而言之，由於需求不斷增長和供應緊張，全球肥料市場基本面在 2025 年已經收緊，我們對我們的業務持建設性態度。我們持續監控與貿易中斷相關的潛在風險，並建立了具有韌性的業務，能夠在任何情況下做出回應。我們採取嚴謹而有意識的資本配置方式，優先考慮高價值投資機會，剝離非核心資產並向股東返還現金。

We have demonstrated progress in each of these areas in 2025, and we'll continue to focus on actions within our control that we believe maximizes long-term value for our shareholders. We would now be happy to take your questions.

2025 年，我們已經在上述各個領域取得了進展，我們將繼續專注於我們能夠控制的行動，我們相信這些行動能夠最大限度地為股東創造長期價值。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，BMO 資本市場。

So you don't give guidance for EBITDA, you give it just for retail. And I don't want to give me guidance if I wanted to, you're not going to. What I want to ask you is that, if I look at versus three months ago, what you had for your commodity price deck and don't even tell us that. But would you agree that if you mark-to-market your earnings, you would expect that you are looking at higher outlook now you would have thought three months ago because all the commodity prices have moved to good US spring.

因此，您不會提供 EBITDA 指導，而只會提供零售指導。即使我想指導我，你也不會給我。我想問您的是，如果我與三個月前相比，您的商品價格是多少，甚至沒有告訴我們。但是您是否同意，如果您以市價計算您的收益，您會期望現在的前景會更高，而三個月前您就會這麼想，因為所有商品價格都已轉向美國春季的良好走勢。

Like could you talk about that, that the outlook is improving or not, where you should be earning more than maybe what you would have thought three months ago? And you're not going to tell us what those numbers are on that side.

例如，您能否談談前景是否正在改善，您的收入是否應該比三個月前想像的要多？你不會告訴我們那邊的數字是多少。

Yes, thank you for the question. The short answer is, yes. We agree with your assessment now versus three months ago and that's related to a number of things. And it does go back to what we're seeing across what we do, the strength of demand across fertilizer products. And we can talk about potash, where we issued in our view of 71 million to 75 million tonnes of demand is here.

是的，謝謝你的提問。簡短的回答是，是的。與三個月前相比，我們同意您現在的評估，這與許多事情有關。這確實與我們所看到的情況有關，即對化肥產品的需求強勁。我們可以談談鉀肥，我們預計這裡的需求量為 7,100 萬至 7,500 萬噸。

And what we're seeing, we believe, is the intersection of the market, the ability to supply that. So there is supply stack and logistics constraints. And so that as a result, we are seeing strengthening of price in every market that we serve. I mean, even in our own domestic volumes, we have increased the price 3 times since our winter fill program.

我們相信，我們所看到的是市場的交會點，即供應能力。因此存在供應堆疊和物流限制。因此，我們看到我們服務的每個市場的價格都在走強。我的意思是，即使是我們自己的國內產量，自冬季填充計劃以來，價格也已經上漲了三倍。

To your point, that's within the last three months, Joel. We're 90% committed through Q2 in our domestic volumes and fully committed with Canpotex through Q2. And we could talk about what's happening in urea and UAN, where we've seen supply disruptions and strong demand.

喬爾，就你所說的而言，那是在過去三個月內。我們國內訂單量已承諾達到第二季的 90%，而 Canpotex 訂單量已全部承諾達到第二季。我們可以討論一下尿素和 UAN 的現狀，我們看到了供應中斷和強勁的需求。

With our Retail business, we've talked about, it's a story of haves as opposed to quarters and where we -- with some weather delays in the first quarter, we're now about 50% planted in, we can hand it over to Jeff Tarsi, things are going strong with the planting season now, and we're seeing significant volume go to ground. So we're very encouraged by what we're seeing at the moment. So again, Joel, it's just to say that we agree with you and certainly constructive on the balance of the year.

就我們的零售業務而言，我們已經討論過，這是一個關於富人的故事，而不是季度的故事，我們——儘管第一季度有一些天氣延誤，但現在我們已經種植了大約 50%，我們可以把它交給 Jeff Tarsi，現在種植季節一切順利，我們看到大量的作物被種植到地裡。因此，我們對目前看到的情況感到非常鼓舞。所以，喬爾，我再說一遍，我們同意你的觀點，並且對今年的平衡肯定具有建設性。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Andrew Wong。

So maybe can you just provide an update on Brazil retail? Like are we on track to see that business get back to breakeven? And just going forward, now that you've spent some time on the turnaround in Brazil, what does that look like for Nutrien as you kind of get into, like, let's say, 2026 and beyond?

那麼，您能否提供有關巴西零售業的最新情況？我們是否有望看到業務恢復收支平衡？展望未來，既然您已經花了一些時間扭轉巴西的局面，那麼對於 Nutrien 來說，在 2026 年及以後，情況會是怎樣的呢？

es. Thanks, Andrew. So again, the short answer is, yes. We are on track. I mean, at the macro level, Brazilian farmer had a strong soybean crop and soybean prices strengthened. Of course, they're watching their (inaudible) crop grow at the moment, but all indications are that it will be a strong corn crop as well.

es。謝謝，安德魯。所以，簡短的回答是，是的。我們正走在正確的軌道上。我的意思是，從宏觀層面來看，巴西農民的大豆收成很好，大豆價格也走強。當然，他們目前正在觀察（聽不清楚）作物的生長情況，但所有跡像都表明，玉米作物也將獲得豐收。

So Brazilian farmer is in a bit better place. And of course, you combine that with what we've been doing with our own business. We talked about idling blenders. We've talked about headcount reduction. We talked about closure of unproductive locations, how we're focusing on collections, how we're focusing on proprietary products.

所以巴西農民的處境稍微好一點。當然，你要將其與我們自己業務的所作所為結合。我們討論了空轉的攪拌機。我們已經討論過裁員問題。我們討論了關閉不俱生產力的場所、我們如何專注於收集、如何專注於專有產品。

And that full plan to bring us back to a cash neutral position this year, which is absolutely on track. Jeff, do you want to say a few words about that?

這項完整計劃將使我們今年恢復現金中立狀態，這絕對是按計劃進行的。傑夫，你想就此說幾句話嗎？

And I'll just reiterate some of the comments that you made from a macro standpoint. Growers came off very strong, soybean yields there, which sold being harvest. They got off to a good start with the second crop corn, and that's progressing nicely, not a lot of weather scar is there in that market. We have seen -- as we saw last year, we continue to see pressure in the crop protection market, a big influence of generics in that market as well.

我只想從宏觀角度重申您提出的一些評論。種植者收穫豐富，大豆產量很高，收穫後即可出售。他們的第二茬玉米作物開局良好，進展順利，市場沒有受到太多天氣影響。我們已經看到——正如我們去年所看到的，我們繼續看到作物保護市場的壓力，仿製藥對該市場的影響也很大。

And our focus with our business, as Ken just stated, we're really focused very intently on our control expense management, a heavy, heavy focus on margins. We've been very focused on bringing our inventory down and we've been successful at that. And then again, a lot of attention to our receivables book. We expect to deliver a notable improvement over last year. We're starting to see those benefits start to show up from a margin standpoint and from an expense standpoint as well, and we plan to carry that momentum forward through the remainder of the year.

正如肯剛才所說，我們的業務重點是控制費用管理，非常注重利潤率。我們一直非常注重降低庫存，並且已經取得了成功。然後再次，我們要多加關注我們的應收帳款帳簿。我們期望比去年取得顯著進步。我們開始看到這些好處從利潤率和費用角度開始顯現，我們計劃在今年剩餘時間內保持這種勢頭。

Ken just mentioned that we've idled our blending facilities, and we've taken out our assets that weren't giving us a return from whether we talk about locations or experienced centers, and we reduced our headcount by about 400. So we've done a lot of work there over the last 12 to 18 months, and we're starting to see the results of that. Thanks, Jeff.

肯剛才提到，我們已經閒置了我們的混合設施，我們已經剝離了那些沒有給我們帶來回報的資產，無論是地點還是經驗豐富的中心，我們都將員工人數減少了約 400 人。因此，我們在過去 12 到 18 個月裡在那裡做了很多工作，並且開始看到成果。謝謝，傑夫。

And Andrew, as we've been looking into 2026, I think you can expect more of the same. It will be watching the market evolution of the health of the Brazilian farmer and at the same time, us continuing to execute on our improvement plan.

安德魯，當我們展望 2026 年時，我想你會期待更多類似的情況。我們將關注巴西農民健康狀況的市場演變，同時繼續執行我們的改進計劃。

And I think, Jeff, fair to say we're watching crop chemistry quite closely. If there's one shelf of ours that has caught up is on chemistry and we'll be looking to 2026 to see them. But we're still seeing competition from generics and that's certainly stressing prices in that part of the world.

傑夫，我認為我們正在密切關注作物化學。如果我們的書架上有一個書架趕上了進度，那就是化學書架，我們期待著 2026 年能看到它們。但我們仍然面臨來自仿製藥的競爭，這無疑給該地區的價格帶來了壓力。

Yes. And Ken, I've failed to mention, I don't want to leave this out, but we still see a lot of opportunity on the proprietary products side of our business, especially with our plant nutritional and biological products as well on the proprietary seed side of the business and we're very focused in those two areas.

是的。肯，我忘了提，我不想忽略這一點，但我們仍然看到我們業務的專有產品方面有很多機會，特別是我們的植物營養和生物產品以及專有種子業務方面，我們非常關注這兩個領域。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Sorry. Could you talk a little bit about just sort of how you're seeing the first half shape up in wholesale? And I'm just trying to think through, you said about 90% of the book is filled domestically. Can you give us a sense of sort of how much sequential price improvement you'll see has obviously been a rising price environment. So just trying to understand how much that you might have captured in 2Q.

對不起。能否稍微談談您對上半年批發業發展的看法？我只是試著想一想，您說這本書大約 90% 的內容都是國內的。您能否讓我們了解一下，在價格上漲的環境下，您會看到價格連續上漲多少？所以只是想了解你在第二季可能捕獲了多少。

Yes. Thanks, Vincent. Again, I would say that the first half in terms of upstream business is, we're constructive, and we can start with potash where again, with such strong global demand, we can go from market-to-market, where again in China, we're seeing very strong consumption, quite-low inventory levels. India with -- it's a flat subsidy, the one that, at today's prices, would encourage probably 4 million tonnes of demand in that part of the world.

是的。謝謝，文森特。我再說一遍，就上游業務而言，上半年我們是建設性的，我們可以從鉀肥開始，由於全球需求如此強勁，我們可以從一個市場到另一個市場，在中國，我們看到非常強勁的消費，相當低的庫存水平。印度獲得了固定補貼，以今天的價格計算，這筆補貼可能會刺激該地區產生 400 萬噸的需求。

In the US, we talked about what we're seeing in the planting season here. And certainly in the second quarter, things have gone quite strong domestically. We can talk about what we're seeing in Indonesia and Malaysia, albeit 4,000 ringgit per tonne. Palm oil prices come off a bit, but still at a level that encourages strong demand, and we're seeing that.

在美國，我們討論了這裡種植季節的情況。當然，第二季國內情勢相當強勁。我們可以談談印尼和馬來西亞的情況，儘管價格為每噸 4,000 林吉特。棕櫚油價格略有下跌，但仍處於刺激強勁需求的水平，我們正在看到這一點。

We're probably at about $360 pricing in Southeast Asia at the moment for a standard grade product. So again, in Brazil, of course, where we're just talking last year, 47 million tonnes of crop Nutrien demand, and we're expecting something similar this year. So we can go on the demand side, market to market and it certainly gives us that confidence in the 71 million to 75 million tonnes.

目前，我們在東南亞的標準級產品定價約為 360 美元。當然，我們剛才談到，去年巴西的農作物營養需求量為 4,700 萬噸，我們預期今年的情況也類似。因此，我們可以從需求面來看，從市場角度來看，這無疑讓我們對 7,100 萬至 7,500 萬噸的產量充滿信心。

And again, if you look at what's happening on the supply side of the equation and the market's ability to deliver. We believe those two are meeting and they're meeting with the result of strengthening prices in just about every market that we serve.

再說一次，如果你看看供給方的情況以及市場的供給能力。我們相信，這兩者正在達成一致，結果是，我們所服務的幾乎每個市場的價格都在走強。

We can move over to nitrogen products, where here in the planting season, we've had really strong urea and UAN prices. Ammonia, some softening with new supply coming on. We're all watching China as it relates to export volumes. But at the moment in the planting season, we're seeing what it is, right? So again, market-to-market and we can talk about phosphate prices, particularly strong.

我們可以轉向氮產品，在種植季節，尿素和 UAN 價格非常強勁。隨著新供應的到來，氨氣有所軟化。我們都在關注中國的出口量。但現在正值播種季節，我們看到的是什麼樣的情況，對嗎？因此，再次從市場角度來看，我們可以談論磷酸鹽價格，尤其強勁。

Market-to-market wholesale business, our upstream business, we're constructive on the first half and frankly, into the balance of the year.

市場對市場的批發業務，我們的上游業務，我們對上半年以及坦率地說對今年餘下時間都抱有建設性的態度。

Richard Garchitorena, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的理查德‧加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

Great. Just wondering on the Nitrogen segment, it looks like you had higher costs as a headwind in the quarter. Just wondering how much of this was related to Trinidad. Was this across all your facilities, obviously, higher natural gas price in North America as well. And then also just maybe on tariffs, I guess, how are you thinking about handling that if there are going to be some tariffs on, but coming into the country from other regions, such as Trinidad?

偉大的。我只是對氮氣部分感到好奇，看起來本季你們面臨更高的成本阻力。只是想知道這與特立尼達有多少關係。你們的所有設施都是這樣嗎？顯然，北美的天然氣價格也上漲了。然後也許還有關稅問題，我想，如果對從其他地區（例如特立尼達）進入我國的商品徵收關稅，您打算如何處理？

Yes. So two questions there. One on costs, one on tariffs, maybe I'll hand it over to Mark to talk about what we're seeing in the first quarter, first half for cost in our nitrogen network and then maybe Chris just talk a little bit about this, I guess, it's 10% flat tariffs on some of the other regions who produce nitrogen.

是的。所以有兩個問題。一個是關於成本，一個是關於關稅，也許我會把它交給馬克來談談我們在第一季、上半年看到的氮氣網絡成本，然後也許克里斯只談一點這個，我想，對其他一些生產氮氣的地區徵收 10% 的統一關稅。

Thanks, Ken. Rich, on your first question on nigrogen cost in Q1, a pretty straightforward answer. Obviously, when we came into the year, we had expected to see Henry Hub prices in a range of $3.25 to $3.50 to begin the year and natural gas prices began the year higher than we anticipated in a more volatile fashion than we anticipated.

謝謝，肯。Rich，關於您關於第一季氮氣成本的第一個問題，我的回答非常直接。顯然，當我們進入今年時，我們預計亨利中心的價格將在 3.25 美元至 3.50 美元之間，而年初的天然氣價格高於我們的預期，而且波動性也比我們預期的要大。

So the majority of the cost you're referring to in the quarter would have been driven by higher gas prices in North America. That said, we've seen gas prices ease-off somewhat. While there is still volatility in the market, we've widened our range for the remainder of the year to be $3.25 to $4.

因此，您所提到的本季的大部分成本是受到北美汽油價格上漲的影響。儘管如此，我們已經看到汽油價格有所下降。儘管市場仍然存在波動，但我們已將今年剩餘時間的價格區間擴大至 3.25 美元至 4 美元。

As we've moved through the winter, we've seen gas prices ease a little bit, albeit still volatile going forward. I would just point out that, obviously, we continue to benefit from a wider than historical spread with our plants up in Alberta and continue to expect to reap the benefits of that through the remainder of the year.

隨著冬季的到來，我們看到汽油價格下降，儘管未來價格仍然不穩定。我只想指出，顯然，我們繼續受益於位於阿爾伯塔省的工廠比歷史上更廣泛的傳播，並繼續期望在今年剩餘時間內獲得收益。

So with that, I'll pass it over to Chris.

因此，我將把它交給克里斯。

Yes. Thanks, Mark. As it relates to tariffs, some of the price increase we've seen, whether it be the urea or UAN maybe from the position of tariffs from those countries that have the 10% imposed to them. But generally, the story is much more about demand. And as you heard from Ken in his opening remarks about the impact of planning 95 million acres of corn, a little bit of catch-up, nitrogen application that was missed in the fall.

是的。謝謝，馬克。就關稅而言，我們看到一些價格上漲，無論是尿素還是 UAN，可能是因為那些國家徵收了 10% 的關稅。但總體而言，這個故事更多的是關於需求。正如肯在開場白中談到的，9500 萬英畝玉米種植計劃的影響，以及秋季錯過的氮肥施用。

And that's the real factor that's driving the price, particularly of those two products.

這是推動價格上漲的真正因素，尤其是這兩種產品的價格。

Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的本‧艾薩克森 (Ben Isaacson)。

You gave global potash shipment guidance of 71 million to 75 million tonnes, 75 being strong demand, 71 being weak supply. Now you don't have weak supply. And so my question is, with prices now starting to move to and through mid-cycle, you talked about Canpotex being sold out in Q2.

您給出的全球鉀肥出貨量預期為 7,100 萬至 7,500 萬噸，其中 7,500 萬噸表示需求強勁，7,100 萬噸表示供應疲軟。現在你的供應已經不再疲軟。所以我的問題是，隨著價格現在開始進入中期，您說過 Canpotex 在第二季度已經售罄。

Your Canpotex peer yesterday nudged up their volume a little bit in potash. How could we think about Nutrien responding to prices? Is it too early? Or are prices too low for nutrient to start increasing volume. When should we expect you to respond to higher prices?

您的 Canpotex 同行昨天稍微提高了鉀肥的交易量。我們如何看待 Nutrien 對價格的反應？是不是太早了？或價格太低，營養素無法開始增加產量。我們應該何時期待你們會對更高的價格做出反應？

Yes. Thank you, Ben. And no, we're -- prices are not too low. We're encouraged by -- again, by what we're seeing in all of the markets that we serve, but it is early in the year. And we are in the middle of the planting season here in North America. And we have a guidance range that we have put out.

是的。謝謝你，本。不，我們的價格並不太低。我們再次對我們所服務的所有市場所看到的情況感到鼓舞，但現在才剛剛開始。目前，北美正處於播種季節。我們已經制定了指導範圍。

We maintained that guidance range. Now, could we find ourselves as the year unfolds in an environment where we're somewhere between the midpoint and the top end of that guidance, which we could. And as you know, we certainly have the ability to do that with our six mines, our flexible network, our ability to surge capacity when we need to in an environment that's calling for our tonnes. So we're talking to our customers every day about their needs, their demand. And again, we're constructive on what we see for the balance of the year.

我們維持了該指導範圍。現在，隨著時間的流逝，我們是否會發現自己處於介於指導中點和上限之間的環境中，我們可能會這樣做。如您所知，憑藉我們的六個礦場、靈活的網路以及在需要我們產量的環境中隨時增加產能的能力，我們完全有能力做到這一點。因此，我們每天都會與客戶討論他們的需求和要求。再次強調，我們對今年剩餘時間的展望持建設性態度。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

Great. My question kind of straddles two prior questions. In the beginning of the year on the potash side, there's this presumption that the market would benefit from Belarusian, Russian curtailments perhaps a little bit out of China, decent amount out of Chile and then obviously, (inaudible) has been a bit of a debate.

偉大的。我的問題有點跨越了之前兩個問題。今年年初，就鉀肥方面而言，人們推測市場將受益於白俄羅斯和俄羅斯的減產，中國可能會有一點減產，智利也會有相當數量的減產，但顯然，（聽不清楚）存在一些爭論。

But all in all, it looks like supply has actually been quite healthy out of the FSU, especially Belarus versus prior expectations. Russia perhaps a little bit less so, but that further indicates that this is a demand-driven environment. So if we take that into consideration and whether or not you think I'm correct as part of this, how should we think about the sustainability of higher prices?

但總體而言，看起來前蘇聯的供應實際上相當健康，特別是白俄羅斯，這與先前的預期相符。俄羅斯的情況可能稍微好一些，但這進一步表明這是一個需求驅動的環境。因此，如果我們考慮到這一點，無論您是否認為我的觀點是正確的，我們都應該如何看待高價的可持續性？

Because I think previously, people were thinking, Hey, you could get a little bump up, and then we're just going to give everything back in the second half. And I think it's looking increasingly less so, so can you just help us compartmentalize your way of thinking and how that plays in your strategy for the balance of the year?

因為我認為以前人們會想，嘿，你可能會得到一點提升，然後我們會在下半場把一切都還回來。我認為這種情況越來越少了，所以你能幫助我們區分一下你的思維方式以及它對你今年剩餘時間的策略有何影響嗎？

Yes, Chris, thank you for the question. Again, I go back to the way demand is materializing this year and the global grower and the affordability of crop nutrition as they try and maximize yields. And that's happening in North America as we speak. Chris mentioned, 95 million acres of corn, which is, again, constructive for Crop Nutrition going to ground, but we can go market-to-market.

是的，克里斯，謝謝你的提問。再次，我回顧了今年需求的實現方式，以及全球種植者在嘗試最大限度提高產量時作物營養的可負擔性。而這正是我們所說的北美正在發生的事情。克里斯提到，9,500 萬英畝玉米，這對作物營養的種植具有建設性意義，但我們可以面向市場。

And we're seeing really, really record level of demand. And then that gives us confidence in that 71 million to 75 million tonnes. We've talked about the constraint on the top end of our guidance range, global shipments as being a supply constraint. And even without the curtailments, perhaps that were announced in places like Russia and Belarus, maintenance downtime, which we may see, yes, we've seen some volume reductions out of Chile at the margin and perhaps not all of the incremental tonnes that were announced coming out of Belarus.

我們看到的需求水準確實達到了創紀錄的水準。這使我們對 7,100 萬至 7,500 萬噸的產量充滿信心。我們已經討論了指導範圍上限的限制，即全球出貨量作為供應限制。即使沒有俄羅斯和白俄羅斯等地宣布的減產，我們可能會看到維護停機，是的，我們已經看到智利的產量有所減少，而且可能不是白俄羅斯宣布的所有增量噸數。

So there have been some supply disruptions. But what we believe we're seeing is, again, this intersection where global demand is meeting the market's ability to supply and ship. And as a result, we have seen, again, strengthening in prices in the response market that we serve, China and India contracts obviously haven't been sold. So that we look over the balance of the year and how we're thinking about the remainder of 2025, and again, that's where we say we're quite constructive.

因此出現了一些供應中斷的情況。但我們相信，我們再次看到了全球需求與市場供應和運輸能力相符的局面。結果，我們再次看到，我們所服務的回應市場的價格走強，中國和印度的合約顯然尚未售出。因此，我們回顧今年的平衡情況以及我們對 2025 年剩餘時間的思考，我們再次說，我們在這方面非常有建設性。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

美國銀行的史蒂夫伯恩。

Yes. I have a couple of Retail questions. First, the two bolt-ons, what do you think EBITDA contribution could be post synergies? Another one being your proprietary brands with Loveland and Dyna-Gro. Are you gaining share in those brands would you say versus other brands out there?

是的。我有幾個關於零售的問題。首先，對於這兩個附加因素，您認為協同效應之後 EBITDA 的貢獻會是多少？另一個是您擁有的 Loveland 和 Dyna-Gro 等專有品牌。您認為與其他品牌相比，這些品牌的市佔率是否增加？

And then lastly, any update on the launch of that N-FINITY product.

最後，關於 N-FINITY 產品發布有任何最新消息嗎？

Absolutely, Steve. Thank you for the questions. I'll hand it over to Mark to talk about the first question as it relates to the acquisition. And then over to Jeff to talk about Dyna-Gro and our LPI. So certainly, we can -- we have -- we can talk about what's happening with N-FINITY.

當然，史蒂夫。謝謝您的提問。我將把與收購有關的第一個問題交給馬克討論。然後傑夫談論 Dyna-Gro 和我們的 LPI。所以當然，我們可以——我們已經——我們可以談論 N-FINITY 正在發生的事情。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So Steve, maybe just to take a step back. We've continued to say that over the past couple of years, we have been cautious in the deployment of capital and ensuring that where we're putting capital to use is the highest return opportunities to continue to grow free cash flow per share, and we had expected that as we entered 2025, we would begin to see US retail tuck-in acquisitions come back into focus given the moderation in earnings profile and multiples.

是的。謝謝，肯。所以史蒂夫，也許只是退一步。我們一直在說，在過去的幾年裡，我們在資本部署方面一直非常謹慎，並確保我們將資本用於能夠帶來最高回報的機會，以繼續增加每股自由現金流，並且我們預計，隨著我們進入 2025 年，鑑於盈利狀況和市盈率的緩和，我們將開始看到美國零售小企業收購重新成為焦點。

And so we made good on that by beginning some of that activity again and we continue to be thoughtful and prudent in how we do that. These two acquisitions were relatively modest in size. We deployed just over $10 million in capital on these two acquisitions. But as always, when we complete these, they're located in a very strategic area of the US, the larger of the two was a distributor called (inaudible) and it's a very nice fit with our network of the business.

因此，我們重新開始一些活動，實現了這一目標，並且我們繼續深思熟慮、謹慎地進行這些活動。這兩筆收購的規模相對較小。我們在這兩次收購中投入的資金略超過 1,000 萬美元。但像往常一樣，當我們完成這些時，它們位於美國一個非常具有戰略意義的區域，兩者中較大的一個是一家名為（聽不清楚）的分銷商，它與我們的業務網絡非常契合。

We know very well, and we continue to see a profile that's traditional for us. We see the ability to take a turn or two of synergies from proprietary products, expense management and just bringing our procurement advantages to bear.

我們非常清楚，我們繼續看到對我們來說傳統的形象。我們看到了透過專有產品、費用管理和採購優勢來實現協同效應的能力。

So as we said earlier in the call, as we move through the year, that incremental dollar is really going to be allocated among tuck-in acquisitions to the extent that's the prudent place to deploy capital and share repurchases and we'll continue to evaluate those opportunities.

因此，正如我們早些時候在電話會議上所說的那樣，隨著時間的推移，這些增量資金實際上將被分配到補充收購中，以謹慎地部署資本和股票回購，我們將繼續評估這些機會。

So I'll pass it over to Jeff on your other questions.

因此，我將把你的其他問題轉交給傑夫。

Yes. I'll get I think a couple of questions you asked around proprietary and started off a little bit as it relates as you know, we got off to a delayed start in the first quarter this year. And I'll remind if we don't remember last year was a phenomenal start from a weather standpoint in the first quarter compared to a -- we didn't get to weather the last two weeks of March in the campaign we're in right now.

是的。我想你會問幾個有關專有技術的問題，這些問題一開始有點相關，正如你所知，我們今年第一季的起步有所延遲。我要提醒大家，如果我們不記得的話，去年第一季從天氣角度來看是一個非凡的開端，而我們現在所處的競選活動中卻沒有遇到三月最後兩週的天氣。

But from a seed standpoint, our revenue and our margin is up in the first quarter, and Steve, that's predominantly because of the shift we've seen from soybeans to corn, particularly in the South, where we're up about 25% on acreage -- corn acreage in the South and now across the whole US, that's not a material number, but it's certainly going to contribute to that 5 million acre growth we're projecting for the year.

但從種子的角度來看，第一季我們的收入和利潤率都有所上升，史蒂夫，這主要是因為我們看到了從大豆到玉米的轉變，特別是在南方，我們的玉米種植面積增加了約 25%——南方乃至現在整個美國的玉米種植面積，這不是一個實質性的數字，但它肯定會為我們預計今年 500 萬英畝的增長做出貢獻。

We do very well with our corn varieties with Dyna-Gro. And so this has given us a good opportunity to expand that as well. We continue to be really excited about our proprietary business as a whole. We've got a -- we forecasted about an 8% increase -- 8% to 9% increase in gross margins this year across that portfolio of products.

我們的玉米品種透過 Dyna-Gro 得到了很好的培育。這也為我們擴大這一範圍提供了良好的機會。我們對我們的整個專有業務仍然感到非常興奮。我們預測今年該產品組合的毛利率將成長約 8% - 8% 至 9%。

And we think with the increased corn acres and our attention to our full-year nutritionals and biostimulant products, we think we're going to have a really good campaign this year. I might also add that we've had 12 new products for this year. And we plan to introduce as many as 20 new products going into 2026 from that standpoint.

我們認為，隨著玉米種植面積的增加以及我們對全年營養和生物刺激素產品的關注，今年我們的銷售活動將會非常好。我還要補充一點，今年我們已經推出了 12 款新產品。從這個角度來看，我們計劃在 2026 年推出多達 20 種新產品。

You asked about N-FINITY specifically. We're having a nice launch to that product. We're right in the throes of getting put to ground right now. And I'm just as anxious as you are to see what our results look like as we get our nitrogen applications put down, as you know, this is nitrogen enhancement too. So yes, we feel -- we're excited about our opportunities and our proprietary product portfolio.

您具體詢問了 N-FINITY。我們正在順利推出該產品。我們現在正處於被擊倒的痛苦之中。而且我和您一樣急切地想看看當我們將氮應用下來時我們的結果會是什麼樣的，正如您所知，這也是氮增強。所以是的，我們感到——我們對我們的機會和專有產品組合感到興奮。

We're expecting a lot of growth out of that segment over the next two years.

我們預計未來兩年該領域將實現大幅成長。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

瑞穗的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

Ken and also, Mark, this is a question I've asked before, and it's always intriguing to get your insight there and also put you on the hot seat, potash or phosphate? But when you look at the fundamentals over the next 6 months or the next 12 months, which one you think is better positioned? And please, you can't say you like both of your children the same, you have to choose one of them.

肯，還有馬克，這是我以前問過的一個問題，聽到你們的見解並讓你們陷入困境總是很有趣的，是鉀肥還是磷酸鹽？但是，當您觀察未來 6 個月或未來 12 個月的基本面時，您認為哪一個市場處於更有利的位置？而且，你不能說你同樣喜歡你的兩個孩子，你必須選擇其中一個。

We like both. But no, Edlain, thank you for the question. Obviously, we've seen quite strong phosphate fundamentals and that's strong demand and limited supply. And we expect that, that will continue over the course of this year. So we've seen historically high phosphate prices and again, we don't see any reason why we would see softening over the course of 2025.

我們兩個都喜歡。但是，艾德萊恩，謝謝你的提問。顯然，我們看到磷酸鹽的基本面相當強勁，即需求強勁而供應有限。我們預計，這種情況將在今年持續下去。因此，我們已經看到磷酸鹽價格處於歷史高位，我們看不到任何理由說明為什麼 2025 年磷酸鹽價格會下降。

Potash is a story of the fundamentals coming to get the start of the year that makes a constructive on perhaps firming through the balance of 2025. We've seen 20% increases in potash prices since the start of the year. Again, we've increased our own domestic price 3 times. And so as suppliers are -- and certainly buyers in China and India are starting to think about and formulating price ideas, again, we're constructive. So it's just to say that phosphate, we think will stay strong and potash is becoming stronger.

鉀肥市場的基本面在年初開始顯現，這對其在 2025 年餘下時間裡可能保持堅挺具有建設性意義。自今年年初以來，鉀肥價格已上漲 20%。再次，我們自己的國內價格已經提高了3倍。因此，隨著供應商——當然還有中國和印度的買家開始思考和製定價格概念，我們再次持建設性態度。因此，我們認為磷酸鹽將保持強勢，而鉀鹽將變得更強。

Hamir Patel, CIBC Capital Markets.

加拿大帝國商業銀行資本市場 (CIBC Capital Markets) 的 Hamir Patel。

Could you speak to the M&A pipeline for retail in terms of the scale of opportunities you're seeing vendor price expectations and just given your latest tuck-ins, do you think you can hit the $2 billion objective for 2026 with the existing platform?

您能否從機會規模、供應商價格預期等方面談談零售業的併購管道？鑑於您最近的收購，您認為能否利用現有平台實現 2026 年 20 億美元的目標？

Yes. Thanks, Hamir. Yes, certainly, as we think about our 2026 target, we believe we're on track there. And we don't think about these couple of acquisitions that we did at the start of this year as a necessity you get within that range, we think more about growth of the proprietary products above cost savings initiatives, many of which we have already achieved, and we've talked about that being a year ahead in our $200 billion SG&A savings.

是的。謝謝，哈米爾。是的，當然，當我們考慮我們的 2026 年目標時，我們相信我們正在朝著這個目標前進。我們不認為今年年初進行的幾項收購是實現這一目標的必要條件，我們更多地考慮專有產品的增長，而不是成本節約計劃，其中許多計劃我們已經實現，並且我們已經談到這將使我們在一年內節省 2000 億美元的銷售、一般及行政費用。

We think about network optimization and you think about, yes, but the potential for tuck-ins. And certainly gives us confidence in getting into the bottom end of our $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion EBITDA range by 2026 for our Downstream business with some cooperation from weather and commodity prices, certainly you can find yourself well within that range. But maybe I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk about the opportunities that we're seeing in the pipeline.

我們考慮網路優化，您也考慮，是的，但是也有整合的潛力。這無疑讓我們有信心，到 2026 年，我們的下游業務的 EBITDA 將達到 19 億美元至 21 億美元的底線，如果天氣和商品價格能夠給予一些配合，我們肯定能夠發現自己處於這個範圍內。但也許我會把它交給傑夫來談論我們在規劃中看到的機會。

And maybe Mark can talk a little bit about how we're thinking about price expectations.

也許馬克可以稍微談談我們對價格預期的看法。

Yes. We're in that period of the year where we've been slow on the tuck-in side of things, people are starting in their spring planting season in North America. And so -- but I do expect to see the opportunities increase as we get through the season, especially as we get to the back half of the year.

是的。我們正處於一年中農事進展緩慢的時期，北美的人們正開始在春季播種。所以——但我確實希望隨著賽季的進行，特別是進入下半年，機會會增加。

We want to be very opportunistic when it comes to tuck-ins. In my mind, I've kind of got the sweet spot of what good tuck-ins look like for us. We particularly like to grow in the corn belt if we can find the right opportunities there. I might also mention that we're seeing the pipeline pick up a bit in Australia as well.

在談到美食時，我們希望抓住機會。在我的心中，我已經找到了最適合我們吃的豐盛大餐的最佳狀態。如果我們能在玉米帶找到合適的機會，我們特別喜歡在那裡發展。我還要提到，我們也看到澳洲的管道有所回升。

We've had a good history of doing tuck-ins in that market. But I think you asked a question around valuation as well. We're going to be very disciplined when it comes to the valuation of these tuck-ins. And in my opinion, I think we've seen the value come down some over the last 18 months. And so we'll be very disciplined and prudent as we look at these opportunities, just as the two we just closed just prior to the spring season.

我們在該市場有良好的銷售業績。但我認為您也問了一個有關估值的問題。在對這些小商品進行估價時，我們會非常嚴格。在我看來，我們已經看到價值在過去 18 個月內有所下降。因此，當我們審視這些機會時，我們會非常自律和謹慎，就像我們在春季之前剛結束的兩個機會一樣。

Mark?

標記？

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. Again, I don't have a lot to add. I think, Hamir, just to your question specifically on valuation, I'd say to Jeff's point, we've seen valuations come back in-line with where we're comfortable historically. As an example, we continue to see high-quality acquisitions in that small to medium-sized range at sort of a 6 to 7 times EBITDA on a pre-synergy basis.

是的。謝謝，傑夫。再次強調，我沒有太多要補充的。哈米爾，我認為，就你關於估值的具體問題而言，我想就傑夫的觀點說，我們已經看到估值回到了我們歷史上感到舒適的水平。舉例來說，我們繼續看到中小型範圍內的高品質收購，其協同效應前的 EBITDA 約為 6 到 7 倍。

And as I mentioned in a prior response, we continue to see the levers to be able to take one to two turns of EBITDA out of those acquisitions with the synergy opportunities that we have. And to Jeff's point, we continue to be quite selective. And there's no predetermined or necessary amount of capital that needs to be deployed to tuck-in acquisitions, as Ken said, it's really where is that dollar most prudent. It's going to generate shareholder returns and maximize free cash flow per share growth. So we'll continue to evaluate these as we move through the second half of the year, opposite the other activities and opportunities we have for capital.

正如我在先前的回覆中提到的那樣，我們繼續看到能夠利用我們擁有的協同機會從這些收購中獲得一到兩倍 EBITDA 的槓桿。正如傑夫所說，我們仍然非常有選擇性。正如肯所說，並沒有預先確定或必要的資本金額需要部署到緊急收購中，真正的問題是將資金投入最謹慎的地方。它將產生股東回報並最大化每股自由現金流的成長。因此，我們將在今年下半年繼續評估這些因素，並與我們在資本方面的其他活動和機會相對照。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的達菲費雪。

Question around Crop Protection and retail. So we've had a number of the producers already come out with their earnings, and it seems like pricing has been weaker kind of across the board. So within your business, how difficult has pricing been? Is that part of the down bar chart there from slide 6. Is that something structural do you think? Or is that just a hangover from the oversupply that we had the last couple of years?

有關作物保護和零售的問題。我們已經有許多生產商公佈了他們的收益，而且似乎價格全面走弱。那麼，在您的業務中，定價有多困難？這是投影片 6 下方長條圖的一部分嗎？您認為這是結構性的東西嗎？或者這只是過去幾年供應過剩的遺留問題？

And then just the third part of that would be a number of the generics that come into the US start in China. Are you seeing the tariffs have an impact on those generics where maybe that will be beneficial to you that the importers there are going to have to pay a high tariff and maybe price them out of the market.

第三部分是，許多進入美國的仿製藥都產自中國。您是否認為關稅會對那些仿製藥產生影響？也許這對您有利，因為那裡的進口商將不得不支付高額關稅，甚至可能將這些仿製藥擠出市場。

Yes. I'm not sure.

是的。我不知道。

Go ahead, Jeff, please.

請繼續，傑夫。

Yes. No, and I think I wrote down both parts of your question there. If I look at Crop Protection for the first quarter and obviously, revenue was off, that was 100% dictated by the weather, both in North America and Australia as well, which can drive us there. And if I look at it from a margin perspective in the first quarter, we were off some on margin, but we had planned to be off on margin.

是的。不，我想我把你的問題的兩個部分都寫下來了。如果我看一下第一季的作物保護情況，顯然收入下降了，這 100% 是由北美和澳洲的天氣決定的，這可以導致我們出現這種情況。如果我從第一季的利潤率角度來看，我們的利潤率確實有所下降，但我們已經計劃好了利潤率。

We anticipated that we would see more pressure in this Crop Protection market. And I think that's twofold. Some of it is a hangover from inventory that was in the channel. Probably the bigger part of it is, as you just mentioned a minute ago, is generic pressure. We did see more generics come into this market, especially in North America. I mentioned Brazil earlier, but we had started to see that 12 to 18 months ago.

我們預計作物保護市場將面臨更大的壓力。我認為這具有雙重意義。其中一些是渠道庫存的遺留問題。可能其中更重要的部分是，正如您剛才提到的，普遍的壓力。我們確實看到更多的仿製藥進入這個市場，特別是在北美。我之前提到過巴西，但我們在 12 到 18 個月前就已經開始看到這種情況了。

I do think that -- and look, I have no answer on the tariffs and how long they might be around, but we're going to start to see pricing move up on the generics, and we're already starting to see that from the generic suppliers today. And at the same time, that will affect the multinationals as well from that standpoint.

我確實認為——而且，我對關稅以及它們可能持續多久沒有答案，但我們將開始看到仿製藥的價格上漲，而且我們今天已經開始從仿製藥供應商那裡看到這種情況。同時，從這個角度來看，這也會對跨國公司產生影響。

And so that could slow some of the flow of generics, particularly into this North American market. But growers have been a bit more selective this year, and a little bit more pricey on products as they go in, but that's to be expected. And we plan for that going into the year.

這可能會減緩部分仿製藥的流入，特別是北美市場。但今年種植者更加挑剔，產品價格也更高一些，但這是意料之中的。我們計劃在今年內實現這一目標。

We have a -- to me, we have a great offset to that, and that's our proprietary products that we offer in that generic space. We were in a very good position coming into this year and that we had already secured our inventory and head it over. So we're not tariff affected on the majority of that volume, and we've got a very good offering in those markets where they want to go a bit more to the generic side of it.

對我來說，我們對此有很大的補償，這就是我們在通用領域提供的專有產品。今年我們處於非常有利的地位，我們已經確保了庫存並開始交付。因此，我們大部分產品不受關稅影響，而且我們在那些想要更多地涉足仿製藥領域的市場中提供了非常好的產品。

Ken, I don't know if you had anything.

肯，我不知道你有沒有什麼事。

Thank you, Jeff. Just to say that we have assumed a 4% reduction in margins for Crop Protection this year. So we talked about our guidance range of 1.6 to 1.85. There are some assumptions about everything you just described.

謝謝你，傑夫。只是說，我們預計今年作物保護的利潤率將下降 4%。因此我們討論了 1.6 到 1.85 的指導範圍。對於您剛才描述的一切，有一些假設。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

In Crop Protection, your proprietary products in the quarter were down about 30%, and your gross profits were down about 35%. But for your non-proprietary crop protection, maybe things were down about 10%. Why the difference?

在作物保護領域，本季你們的專有產品下降了約 30%，毛利下降了約 35%。但對於非專利作物保護產品來說，產量可能下降了約 10%。為什麼會有這種差異？

Secondly, what's the state of the Indian and Chinese potash negotiations? And third, in your nitrogen business, can you talk about how much nitrogen gets exported, nitrogen in retail? Can you talk about how much goes into the United States? And whether that's being penalized in any way by tariffs.

第二，印度和中國鉀肥談判進展如何？第三，在您的氮氣業務中，您能談談有多少氮氣出口，有多少氮氣零售嗎？您能談談有多少流入了美國嗎？以及這是否會受到關稅的任何懲罰。

Great. Thanks, Jeff. So I'll hand it over to Tarsi to talk about proprietary and particularly crop protection proprietary products. And over to Chris to talk about China and India and then nitrogen products and to Mark to talk a little bit about tariffs. So over to you, Jeff.

偉大的。謝謝，傑夫。因此，我將把話題交給 Tarsi，讓他來談論專有產品，特別是作物保護專有產品。接下來克里斯將談論中國和印度，然後談論氮氣產品，馬克將談關稅問題。那麼交給你了，傑夫。

Yes. On the crop protection side of it as it relates to proprietary versus non-proprietary and margin, that's strictly a timing and mix predicament we're in right now. As Ken mentioned earlier, we've seen a very robust start to April and May in our marketplace, and that includes the crop protection market as well.

是的。在作物保護方面，由於它涉及專有與非專有以及利潤，這嚴格來說是我們目前所處的時機和組合困境。正如肯恩先前提到的，我們看到 4 月和 5 月市場開局非常強勁，其中也包括作物保護市場。

In the first quarter, because of the weather delays that we saw, our custom application was down substantial. And any products, whether we move them through, whether they're a branded product or non-branded product, when we're able to put them through our own rigs, we have a different margin structure for those products as well.

第一季度，由於天氣原因造成延誤，我們的客製化應用大幅下降。任何產品，無論我們透過什麼方式運輸，無論它們是品牌產品還是非品牌產品，當我們能夠將它們放入我們自己的鑽孔機時，我們對這些產品也有不同的利潤結構。

And it's also affected by some of the high-margin LPI products, adjuvants and surfactants and such. So when you got to reduce reduction in volume, it kind of offsets that whole margin structure as it relates to that. We would expect to see that level itself out as we go into the second quarter, and we've see an evidence of that now.

而且它也受到一些高利潤的LPI產品、佐劑和界面活性劑等的影響。因此，當你減少交易量的減少時，它會抵消與之相關的整個利潤結構。我們預計，進入第二季後，這一數字將會趨於平穩，現在我們已經看到了證據。

I'll pass the question over to Chris for the second part.

我將把問題交給克里斯來回答第二部分。

Yes. Jeff, thanks for the question. Regarding China and India, Canpotex has started that engagement on those two contracts. But really being done against the backdrop that you've heard during the call of some very, very strong market fundamentals, but perhaps more encouragingly, no fundamental buildup of inventories anywhere in the world. And so as Ken alluded to, there's some Southeast Asia pricing right now that folks are looking to as an indicator.

是的。傑夫，謝謝你的提問。關於中國和印度，Canpotex 已開始參與這兩份合約。但實際上，這是在大家所聽到的非常非常強勁的市場基本面背景下進行的，但也許更令人鼓舞的是，世界任何地方都沒有出現庫存基本積累的情況。正如肯所暗示的，目前東南亞的一些定價是人們關注的指標。

And so we're encouraged by all of those market fundamentals, but really, as you go around the world, whether it's North America, what we're seeing in Brazil, Southeast Asia, all steady and sustainable price increases off the back of that good demand, some concerns about the production side and some very constructive commodity process.

因此，我們對所有這些市場基本面感到鼓舞，但實際上，放眼全球，無論是北美、巴西還是東南亞，由於需求旺盛、對生產方面的一些擔憂以及一些非常有建設性的商品進程，所有價格都呈現穩定和可持續的上漲。

With that, Mark, I'll hand it over to you.

有了這個，馬克，我就把它交給你了。

Yes. Thanks, Chris. So just on your third question, I think the short answer is on a direct basis. No, our retail is not being directly impacted by tariffs on nitrogen products coming into North America. Obviously, as you know, one of the benefits of our downstream and retail businesses, the supply chain, the procurement capabilities that we've set up.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。關於你的第三個問題，我認為簡短的回答是直接的。不，我們的零售並沒有受到北美氮氣產品關稅的直接影響。顯然，如您所知，我們的下游和零售業務、供應鏈以及我們建立的採購能力的優勢之一。

And so whether that's the integration and the synergies we've been able to drive with our upstream business in terms of domestic nitrogen supply or the ability to source and procure nitrogen from other domestic producers, we're very well positioned for the spring season today and not seeing a direct impact from tariffs.

因此，無論是我們在國內氮氣供應方面與上游業務實現的整合和協同效應，還是從其他國內生產商採購氮氣的能力，我們都為今天的春季做好了充分的準備，並且不會受到關稅的直接影響。

More generally, as both Ken and Chris have spoken to on the call, we are seeing North America in a position where it's come into the spring on a net short basis for products like UAN and urea, and we can see the supply-demand squeeze having an impact on prices. So to the extent that, that continues, we're going to see strength in the market, but we're continuing to operate. We're very well positioned for the spring.

更普遍地說，正如肯和克里斯在電話會議上所說的那樣，我們看到北美在春季處於 UAN 和尿素等產品的淨空頭狀態，我們可以看到供需緊縮對價格產生了影響。因此，如果這種情況持續下去，我們將看到市場走強，但我們仍將繼續運作。我們已經為春季做好了充分的準備。

Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

史蒂夫漢森、雷蒙詹姆斯。

You deserve some credit, I think, for hitting the synergy targets early and some successful divestitures thus far. Is it too early to put another target on the map for us to think about in terms of cost synergies? And just secondarily, what else do you view as sort of a priority to review in terms of being non-core?

我認為，你們值得稱讚，因為你們很早就實現了協同目標，並且迄今為止成功完成了一些資產剝離。現在就成本綜效的角度考慮另一個目標是否為時過早？其次，您認為非核心方面還有哪些內容需要優先審查？

Yes. Thank you, Steve. Yes, with respect to what we've achieved to date, we talked about our $200 million target and being sort of a year ahead on that target. And to your point, actually confidence as we look closer that there's confidence to do better than that confidence to do more. In terms of talking about specific numbers, we'll have more to talk about.

是的。謝謝你，史蒂夫。是的，就我們迄今為止所取得的成就而言，我們談到了 2 億美元的目標，並且提前一年實現了這一目標。正如您所說，實際上，當我們仔細觀察時，我們會發現，我們有信心做得更好，而不是有信心做得更多。至於具體的數字，我們還有很多要談的。

But at this stage, we're assessing that. We're going after some of that. But like I say, we do have confidence in our ability to do more, and we're encouraged by -- certainly encouraged by progress to date. With respect to the review of non-core assets, yes, that's something that we're looking very closely at the moment. We've talked about how we're viewing our Latin American South retail assets and looking for the market to cooperate with us a bit as we think about divestiture, albeit not material for us.

但目前，我們正在評估這一點。我們正在追求其中的一些。但就像我說的，我們確實對自己做得更多的能力充滿信心，而且我們對迄今為止的進展感到鼓舞。關於非核心資產的審查，是的，這是我們目前正在密切關注的事情。我們已經討論瞭如何看待我們在拉丁美洲南部的零售資產，並在考慮資產剝離時尋求市場與我們進行一些合作，儘管這對我們來說並不重要。

We've talked about the process that we're in as it relates to Profertil and just going through that process at the moment. We've talked about the divestiture of our Sinoford shares, which was passive equity stake that is really not strategic for us in the $223 million proceeds that we realized in Q4 of last year at the start of this year.

我們已經討論了與 Profertil 相關的流程以及目前正在經歷的流程。我們已經討論過剝離 Sinoford 股份，這些股份是被動股權，對於我們在今年年初於去年第四季實現的 2.23 億美元收益而言，這實際上並不具有戰略意義。

And yes, there are some other things that we're looking at, at the moment that would meet that definition of non-core. We're looking at that at the moment. And yes, we'll have more to talk about as it relates to, again, looking at additional divestiture opportunities.

是的，目前正在考慮其他一些符合非核心定義的事情。我們目前正在研究這個問題。是的，我們將會有更多內容要討論，因為這與尋找額外的資產剝離機會有關。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

I want to go back real quick, and you had some of that in the prepared remarks. But on phosphate volume, clearly, you had some unplanned outages that impacted your volumes. But at the same time, we've seen a very strong price overall in phosphate.

我想快速回顧一下，您在準備好的發言中已經提到了一些內容。但就磷酸鹽產量而言，顯然，你們遇到了一些計畫外的停產，影響了你們的產量。但同時，我們看到磷酸鹽的整體價格非常堅挺。

So I was just wondering as it relates to achieving your guidance after that softer start in volume in 1Q, how confident are you that there is going to be enough demand on the phosphate side, just given the prices are? Are you seeing any signs of potential demand destruction because of these prices? And how should we think about the potential outcome, low end versus high end of the guidance for the volume side in phosphate?

所以我只是想知道，在第一季銷量較弱之後實現您的指導方針，考慮到價格，您對磷酸鹽方面的需求有多大信心？您是否看到這些價格可能造成需求破壞的跡象？我們應該如何看待潛在的結果，磷酸鹽產量指導的低端與高端？

Yes. Thanks, Ben, for the question. No challenge, we don't think on the demand side of the equation that we still see strong demand. And frankly, that's what's translating to the strong price environment. As it relates to our own production, yes, we had some production challenges in the first half of the year here, weather-related and some other production challenges as well.

是的。謝謝 Ben 提出這個問題。沒有挑戰，我們認為從需求來看，我們仍然看不到強勁的需求。坦白說，這就是強勁的價格環境。就我們自己的生產而言，是的，我們在今年上半年遇到了一些生產挑戰，包括天氣相關的挑戰以及其他一些生產挑戰。

We're taking turnarounds at both our White Springs and Aurora sites here in May, June and expecting greater reliability rates as a result in the second half. So it really is a bit of a story of two halves for our phosphate business. But when you put those two halves together, it does give us confidence that we'll be within that guidance range and hence having maintained our guidance range.

我們將於五月和六月對白泉和奧羅拉兩個站點進行檢修，預計下半年的可靠性率會更高。因此，對於我們的磷酸鹽業務來說，這確實是一個兩半的故事。但是，當你把這兩部分放在一起時，它確實讓我們有信心，我們將處於該指導範圍內，從而保持我們的指導範圍。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

瑞銀的盧卡斯·博蒙特。

I just want to go back to the crop chem kind of tariff exposure in retail. So I was just wondering, could you size for us out of the $4.5 billion to $5 billion you have there in cost of sales on the crop chem piece? How would you size, I guess, the exposure to tariffs going forward, be it from either purchases of finished goods, intermediate products, assuming that the tariffs remain in place.

我只是想回到零售業中農作物化學品關稅風險的問題。所以我只是想知道，您能否為我們估算農作物化學部門的銷售成本在 45 億至 50 億美元之間？我想，假設關稅保持不變，您會如何衡量未來關稅的影響，無論是購買成品還是中間產品？

I mean, I understand that this year, you've got inventory, so it's probably not going to impact '25. But I mean, assuming you have to go through another cycle, I guess, how would you size the impact? And then just lastly, does Nutrien import finished formulations? And how large is that for you if you're doing that?

我的意思是，我知道今年你有庫存，所以它可能不會影響 25 年。但我的意思是，假設你必須經歷另一個週期，我想，你會如何衡量其影響？最後，Nutrien 是否進口成品配方？如果您這樣做的話，這對您來說有多大？

Thank you, Lucas, for the question. And yes, you're right that we have purchased, covered ourselves for the most part for this year. But yes, it's also the case that we're watching the trade dispute between China and the US quite closely because crop protection is obviously a big part of that story.

謝謝盧卡斯提出的問題。是的，您說得對，今年我們已經購買了大部分保險。但是，我們也密切關注中美之間的貿易爭端，因為作物保護顯然是其中的重要組成部分。

Now a number of those products have been exempted when we look at the exemption list. And so for those that are exempted, obviously, we're encouraged by that, but there are products that haven't been. So maybe I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk a little bit more about that.

現在，當我們查看豁免清單時，許多產品已被豁免。因此，對於那些獲得豁免的產品，我們顯然對此感到鼓舞，但有些產品卻沒有獲得豁免。所以也許我會把它交給傑夫進一步談論這個問題。

Yes. So especially if we're talking in the range of our proprietary products, as you would know, on the proprietary CP side of that, 98% of those products would be asset in pipeline. So they're generic products. We do multi-source those products in many instances, we source those active ingredients from our multinationals. And we also source directly out of China and India as well from that standpoint.

是的。因此，特別是如果我們談論我們的專有產品範圍，正如您所知，在專有 CP 方面，98％ 的產品將是管道資產。所以它們是通用產品。在許多情況下，我們確實從多個來源採購這些產品，我們從跨國公司採購這些活性成分。從這個角度來看，我們也直接從中國和印度採購。

And I think you asked a question, do we source finished goods versus active ingredients? And yes, we do both on that end of it. So obviously, we're spending a lot of time right now as we focus, we'll start back this fall, obviously, on building our inventories back up for the '26 year. And we'll focus very heavily on what puts us, what puts our growers in the best position going forward on that.

我認為您問了一個問題，我們採購的是成品還是活性成分？是的，我們確實做到了這兩點。因此，顯然，我們現在花費了大量的時間來集中精力，顯然，我們將在今年秋天開始重新建立 26 年的庫存。我們將重點放在如何讓我們、如何讓我們的種植者在未來處於最佳位置。

We're expecting price increases on branded products anywhere from 5% to 7.5%. And I think on the generic side of the business, I think you could probably start with that higher number and move up. Ken mentioned that there are a lot of ingredients that are exempted. That exempted is still going to come with the base 10%.

我們預計品牌產品的價格將上漲 5% 至 7.5%。我認為，就業務的一般方面而言，你可能可以從較高的數字開始，然後逐步提高。Ken 提到，有許多成分是被豁免的。免稅額仍為 10% 的基本金額。

And it's a complicated matter because these products are made up sometimes with 10 to 15 different components. And not all those components are coming out of one of these particular areas. So we're spending a lot of time right now. We'll spend a lot of time in the next 60 days from a diligence standpoint.

這是一個複雜的問題，因為這些產品有時由 10 到 15 種不同的組件組成。但並非所有這些組件都來自這些特定區域之一。所以我們現在花了很多時間。從盡職調查的角度來看，我們將在接下來的 60 天內花費大量時間。

We're going to assume -- right now, we assume we got tariffs as we work through start positioning ourselves going forward on that. But I think the long story short is we're going to see price increases. We don't -- I think as Mark mentioned earlier, we don't see this being material to our earnings for the '25 year. And where we're experiencing some of these price increases, our plans to pass those price increases through to our customer.

我們將假設—現在，我們假設我們已經獲得了關稅，我們正在開始為此做好定位。但我認為長話短說，我們將會看到價格上漲。我們不認為——我認為正如馬克之前提到的，我們認為這對我們 25 年的收益並不重要。當我們經歷一些價格上漲時，我們計劃將這些價格上漲轉嫁給我們的客戶。

David Symonds, BNP.

英國國家銀行的戴維‧西蒙茲。

Just one more follow-up on the phosphates business, please. You talked about sulfur costs hampering the earnings in that business. But if I look at headline prices, I would have thought that would have been pass-through. So is there some kind of timing issue that held back your strip margins in Q1 meant that sulfur costs were a factor? And how would that evolve into Q2?

請再跟進一下磷酸鹽業務的問題。您談到硫磺成本阻礙了該業務的盈利。但如果我看一下整體價格，我就會認為這將會是轉嫁價格。那麼是否存在某種時間問題，導致第一季的利潤率下降，這意味著硫磺成本是一個因素？那麼這將如何演變為第二季？

Yes. Thank you for the question, David. Yes, I would say that the phosphate price at the moment is more a story about supply and demand fundamentals and what's happening on both sides of that equation as opposed to the ability to pass-through cost increases.

是的。謝謝你的提問，大衛。是的，我想說，目前的磷酸鹽價格更多地取決於供需基本面以及等式兩邊發生的情況，而不是轉嫁成本上漲的能力。

And sulfur is part of the story. But like others, we're experiencing inflationary pressures on other things as well. So the idea of a pass-through versus just the supply-demand fundamentals that we're seeing, it's certainly a story of the latter. But maybe hand it over to Jason Newton, our Chief Economist, just to talk a little bit about what we're seeing in the sulfur market and some of the impact that we've experienced there.

硫磺也是故事的一部分。但與其他國家一樣，我們也在其他方面面臨通膨壓力。因此，我們所看到的傳遞概念與供需基本面相比，肯定是後者的故事。但也許可以把它交給我們的首席經濟學家傑森·牛頓，讓他稍微談談我們在硫磺市場看到的情況以及我們在那裡經歷的一些影響。

Yes, as Ken mentioned, we're seeing sulfur market fundamentals tightening. We've seen those tighten in the first half of the year and (inaudible) sulfur prices in the second quarter were $270 a tonne. So a pretty significant increase quarter-over-quarter and then definitely an increase from where we saw sulfur prices in 2024, which were historically discounted relative to phosphate prices and actually low from a marginal cost and cost perspective for producers, which meant that they were pouring product block or putting product in inventory rather than exporting.

是的，正如肯所提到的，我們看到硫磺市場基本面正在收緊。我們看到，今年上半年硫磺價格有所收緊，（聽不清楚）第二季硫磺價格為每噸 270 美元。因此，與上一季相比，硫磺價格出現了相當顯著的增長，而且肯定比 2024 年的價格有所上漲，從歷史上看，硫磺價格相對於磷酸鹽價格而言處於折扣狀態，而且從生產商的邊際成本和成本角度來看，硫磺價格實際上處於較低水平，這意味著他們正在積壓產品或將產品存入庫存，而不是出口。

So that tightened supply. And coming into 2025, we've seen strong demand in China, strong demand from a base metal perspective in Southeast Asia. And so the combination of reduced export supply and higher demand to support prices. We expect that, that will start to change as we look towards the second half of the year and offer prices have remained pretty stable, but supplies are increasing and the level of demand is decreasing. So we expect more normal relationship with phosphate pricing as we move into the second half.

因此供應變得緊張。進入 2025 年，我們看到中國的需求強勁，從基本金屬的角度來看，東南亞的需求也強勁。因此，出口供應減少和需求增加共同支撐了價格。我們預計，隨著下半年的到來，這種情況將開始發生變化，報價將保持相當穩定，但供應量正在增加，而需求水準正在下降。因此，我們預計，進入下半年，磷酸鹽定價關係將更加正常。

I will now turn the call back to Jeff Holzman for closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給傑夫·霍爾茲曼，請他作結束語。

Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available if you have follow-up questions. Have a great day.

感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。