諾基亞 (NOK) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Nokia's First Quarter 2024 Results Call. I'm David Mulholland, Head of Nokia Investor Relations. And today with me is Pekka Lundmark, our President and CEO; along with Marco Wiren, our CFO.

早安，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加諾基亞 2024 年第一季業績電話會議。我是諾基亞投資者關係主管大衛‧穆赫蘭。今天和我在一起的是我們的總裁兼執行長佩卡·倫德馬克 (Pekka Lundmark)；以及我們的財務長 Marco Wiren。

Before we get started, a quick disclaimer. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding our future business and financial performance, and these statements are predictions that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may therefore differ materially from the results we currently expect.

在我們開始之前，先簡單聲明一下。在本次電話會議中，我們將就我們未來的業務和財務表現做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是涉及風險和不確定性的預測。因此，實際結果可能與我們目前預期的結果有重大差異。

Factors that could cause such differences can be both external as well as internal operating factors. We have identified such risks in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 20-F, which is available on our Investor Relations website.

可能導致這種差異的因素既可以是外部因素，也可以是內部營運因素。我們已在 20-F 表格年度報告的風險因素部分中識別出此類風險，該表格可在我們的投資者關係網站上取得。

Within today's presentation, references to growth rates will mainly be on a constant currency basis, and margins we'll be referring to are comparable reporting. Please note that our Q4 report and the presentation that accompanies the call are published on our website. This report includes both reported and comparable financial results and a reconciliation between the 2.

在今天的演示中，對成長率的提及將主要以固定匯率為基礎，而我們將提及的利潤率是可比較報告。請注意，我們的第四季報告和電話會議附帶的簡報已發佈在我們的網站上。該報告包括報告的和可比較的財務結果以及兩者之間的調節表。

In terms of the agenda for today, Pekka will go through the key messages from the quarter. Marco will go through the financial performance in a bit more detail, and then Pekka will make a few comments on a couple of particular highlights in the quarter. And we'll then move to Q&A.

就今天的議程而言，佩卡將回顧本季的關鍵訊息。 Marco 將更詳細地介紹財務業績，然後 Pekka 將就本季的幾個特別亮點發表一些評論。然後我們將進入問答環節。

With that, let me hand over to Pekka.

那麼，就讓我把任務交給佩卡吧。

Thanks, David, and thank you all for dialing in today. We said back in January that we expected a challenging environment in the first half of this year, and that's what we saw in Q1.

謝謝大衛，也謝謝大家今天撥電話。我們在一月就說過，我們預計今年上半年將面臨充滿挑戰的環境，這就是我們在第一季看到的情況。

Our net sales declined 19% year-on-year in constant currency, as the weak spending environment that started to take hold in Q2 last year remained with us. This impacted the profitability of our 3 networks businesses, but was offset by the benefit of deals signed in Nokia Technologies and the ongoing cost reductions. Marco will go into more detail shortly about our financial performance in the quarter.

以固定匯率計算，我們的淨銷售額年減了 19%，因為去年第二季開始出現的疲軟支出環境依然存在。這影響了我們 3 個網路業務的獲利能力，但被諾基亞技術公司簽署的交易收益和持續的成本削減所抵銷。 Marco 很快就會詳細介紹我們本季的財務表現。

You may also recall that we started to talk about improved order intake trends in Q4, particularly in our Network Infrastructure business. I'm pleased to say that this has continued in Q1. We have seen good growth in order intake year-on-year, and the book-to-bill in Network Infrastructure was above 1.

您可能還記得，我們​​在第四季度開始討論訂單接收趨勢的改善，特別是在我們的網路基礎設施業務中。我很高興地說，這種情況在第一季仍在繼續。我們看到訂單量較去年同期成長良好，網路基礎設施的訂單出貨比超過 1。

The outlook for Fixed Networks has improved over the past 3 months, which is important, as this is also the market that recovers first in our business. However, it might take somewhat longer for our Optical Networks business to recover. With the continued order intake strength, I remain confident that we will see a stronger second half performance and that for the full year, our Network Infrastructure business will return to growth.

過去三個月固定網路的前景有所改善，這一點很重要，因為這也是我們業務中最先復甦的市場。然而，我們的光網路業務可能需要更長的時間才能恢復。隨著訂單量的持續強勁，我仍然相信我們將看到更強勁的下半年業績，並且全年我們的網路基礎設施業務將恢復成長。

We have also been executing quickly on our cost reduction program, where we target to achieve between EUR 800 million and EUR 1.2 billion in cost savings by 2026. We are well on track, with many actions already taken in Q4 and Q1 to achieve the total EUR 500 million of in-year savings in 2024. EUR 400 million of this relates to the new program we announced in October.

我們也一直在快速執行成本削減計劃，我們的目標是到2026 年實現8 億至12 億歐元的成本節約。節約。

One of the biggest highlights from Q1 is the 3 smartphone licensing deals that we signed. I'm delighted we have now concluded our smartphone licensing renewal cycle, and we'll have no more major renewals for a number of years. With these deals, we now have an annual net sales run rate of approximately EUR 1.3 billion in Nokia Technologies.

第一季最大的亮點之一是我們簽署了 3 項智慧型手機授權協議。我很高興我們現在已經結束了智慧型手機授權續約週期，並且我們將在未來幾年內不再進行重大續訂。透過這些交易，諾基亞技術現在的年淨銷售額約為 13 億歐元。

We have also benefited from over EUR 400 million of catch-up net sales in the quarter related to these deals. Nokia Technologies team will now focus their efforts on expanding in new growth areas, and we have a promising pipeline to help us deliver on our next target to increase our run rate to EUR 1.4 billion to EUR 1.5 billion in the midterm.

我們也受惠於與這些交易相關的本季超過 4 億歐元的追趕淨銷售額。諾基亞技術團隊現在將專注於在新的成長領域進行擴張，我們擁有一個充滿希望的管道來幫助我們實現下一個目標，即在中期將營運率提高到 14 億歐元至 15 億歐元。

Finally, we saw strong free cash flow from generation -- we saw strong free cash flow generation in the quarter with almost EUR 1 billion of free cash flow. Along with the benefits in operating profit that we saw from the deals signed in Nokia Technologies, we have also seen some unwind of the working capital investment we made over the past 2 years related to the supply chain challenges and some growth opportunities we had.

最後，我們看到了強勁的自由現金流生成——本季度我們看到了強勁的自由現金流生成，自由現金流接近 10 億歐元。除了我們從諾基亞技術公司簽署的交易中看到營業利潤的好處外，我們還看到過去兩年因供應鏈挑戰和我們擁有的一些成長機會而進行的營運資本投資有所減少。

So overall, the first half of 2024 will remain challenging in our networks businesses. But with the improving order trends, progress made in Nokia Technologies and our quick action on cost, we remain solidly on track to achieve our full year outlook.

整體而言，2024 年上半年我們的網路業務仍將充滿挑戰。但隨著訂單趨勢的改善、諾基亞技術的進步以及我們在成本方面的快速行動，我們仍然堅定地走在實現全年展望的軌道上。

With that, let me hand it over to Marco to go through the financial performance in more detail.

接下來，讓我將其交給 Marco 更詳細地介紹財務表現。

Thanks, Pekka, and good morning from my side as well. As mentioned, we saw a weak start of '24 with a 19% decline in our net sales, as the challenging environment of the second half of '23 remained with us.

謝謝佩卡，我也早安。如前所述，我們看到 24 年開局疲軟，淨銷售額下降了 19%，因為 23 年下半年充滿挑戰的環境仍然存在。

Our gross margin improved significantly year-on-year to 48.6%, and this is due to a combination of an improved gross margin in Mobile Networks and deals we signed in Nokia Technologies. Our operating margin also benefited from these deals, which offset low profitability in our networks businesses.

我們的毛利率比去年同期顯著提高至 48.6%，這得益於行動網路毛利率的提高以及我們與諾基亞技術公司簽署的交易。我們的營業利潤也受惠於這些交易，抵銷了我們網路業務的低獲利能力。

Free cash flow generation was strong in the quarter as a result of Nokia Technologies' catch-up payments and working capital improvements. This means that we ended the quarter with a net cash balance of EUR 5.1 billion, and I will now take you through the individual performances of the business groups.

由於諾基亞科技公司的追繳付款和營運資本改善，本季自由現金流產生強勁。這意味著我們本季結束時的淨現金餘額為 51 億歐元，現在我將帶您了解各個業務部門的具體表現。

And in Network Infrastructure, sales declined by 26% compared to a very strong year ago quarter, where we still benefited from supply chain catch-up. I would also call out that in the quarter, we saw a 23% year-on-year decline in Submarine Networks, and this was related to project timing, along with some distraction given ongoing Red Sea conflicts. We continue to sign new deals that increased our backlog in Submarine.

在網路基礎設施方面，與去年同期非常強勁的銷售額相比，銷售額下降了 26%，但我們仍然受益於供應鏈的追趕。我還想指出的是，在本季度，我們看到海底網路比去年同期下降了 23%，這與專案時間表以及持續的紅海衝突造成的一些幹擾有關。我們繼續簽署新協議，增加了我們在潛艇方面的積壓。

Gross margin declined slightly because of lower net sales coverage and less favorable business mix, and this flowed through to operating margin.

由於淨銷售覆蓋率下降和業務組合不利，毛利率略有下降，這也影響了營業利潤率。

As Pekka highlighted, order trends improved again in the quarter, which gives continued confidence that quarter 1 will mark the low point from a net sales perspective and that the business will see stronger trends into the second half of '24. This is supporting the assumption that Network Infrastructure will return to growth on a constant currency basis in full year '24.

正如Pekka 所強調的那樣，本季的訂單趨勢再次改善，這使人們持續相信，從淨銷售額的角度來看，第一季將標誌著低點，並且業務將在24 年下半年看到更強勁的趨勢。這支持了網路基礎設施將在 2024 年全年以固定匯率為基礎恢復成長的假設。

And turning to Mobile Networks. As you recall, our first half of '23 was driven by significant 5G deployments in India that then started to normalize in the second half of last year. And this means that we face a very challenging comparison in the first half of this year. And this, combined with ongoing low levels of activity in North America, led to a 37% net sales decline in the quarter. We do expect that quarter 1 will represent a low point of net sales in both India and North America in '24.

並轉向行動網路。正如您所記得的那樣，23 年上半年是由印度大規模 5G 部署推動的，該部署隨後在去年下半年開始正常化。這意味著我們今年上半年面臨著非常具有挑戰性的比較。再加上北美市場活動持續低迷，導致本季淨銷售額下降 37%。我們確實預計第一季將是印度和北美 24 年淨銷售額的低點。

We saw a strong increase in gross margins, which was 42.4% in the quarter, and half of that year-on-year increase was a result of positive regional and product mix, and the remainder was due to exceptionally low indirect cost of sales, which we expect to normalize going forward. Operating margin declined due to low net sales coverage.

我們看到毛利率強勁成長，本季達到 42.4%，年成長的一半是正面的區域和產品組合的結果，其餘的則是由於極低的間接銷售成本，我們預計未來將實現正常化。由於淨銷售覆蓋率較低，營業利益率下降。

And Cloud and Network Services also saw a soft start of the year, but we are seeing improving order intake and pipeline momentum also in this business. And our full year assumptions remain unchanged.

雲端和網路服務今年也出現了疲軟的開局，但我們看到該業務的訂單量和管道勢頭也在改善。我們的全年假設保持不變。

Gross margin increased by 310 basis points in the quarter, thanks to a favorable product mix and retail mix. Operating margin declined compared to prior year due to a lower net sales coverage. And as a reminder, in quarter 4, we announced the sale of our device management and service management businesses to Lumine. And this transaction has now closed and will have a modest impact on CNS in quarter 2 and onwards. To give you some context, the business was generating more than EUR 100 million of annual sales with good profitability.

由於有利的產品組合和零售組合，本季毛利率成長了 310 個基點。由於淨銷售覆蓋率較低，營業利益率較上年下降。提醒一下，在第四季度，我們宣布將我們的設備管理和服務管理業務出售給 Lumine。該交易現已完成，並將在第二季及以後對 CNS 產生適度影響。為您提供一些背景信息，該業務的年銷售額超過 1 億歐元，盈利能力良好。

And then briefly on Nokia Technologies. We were very pleased to see the conclusion of the smartphone renewal cycle, which brought with it over EUR 400 million in catch-up payments in the quarter, and this increased our run rate from EUR 900 million to EUR 1 billion, which we had at the end of quarter 4 to EUR 1.3 billion we currently have. And now the next call is to increase our licensing net sales run rate to between EUR 1.4 billion to EUR 1.5 billion in the midterm, as we grow in the other areas that Pekka will explain later.

然後簡單介紹一下諾基亞技術。我們非常高興地看到智慧型手機更新周期的結束，本季度帶來了超過 4 億歐元的追補付款，這使我們的運行率從 9 億歐元增加到 10 億歐元，這是我們在截至第四季度末，我們目前擁有13 億歐元。現在，下一個目標是在中期將我們的許可淨銷售額運行率提高到 14 億歐元至 15 億歐元，隨著我們在其他領域的發展，Pekka 稍後將對此進行解釋。

And then the regional picture was as expected with significant decline in India, which had completed a large deployment in '23. Similarly, the North American decline reflected continuation of low levels of deployment that we saw during the second half of '23. And elsewhere, we largely saw declines in most regions, reflecting the ongoing weak market environment, while we continued to see growth in Middle East and Africa.

然後，該地區的情況正如預期的那樣，印度的情況顯著下降，該國已於 23 年完成了大規模部署。同樣，北美地區的下降反映了我們在 2023 年下半年看到的低部署水準的持續。在其他地方，我們在大多數地區看到了下滑，反映出持續疲軟的市場環境，而中東和非洲則持續成長。

And finally, on cash. You can see from the chart here that the dual impact of the catch-up payments in Nokia Technologies and the release of working capital led to a generation of almost EUR 1 billion of free cash flow. We also reduced the level of sale of receivables in the quarter, and we therefore ended the quarter with a EUR 5.1 billion net cash and are on track to achieve our targeted free cash flow conversion of 30% to 60%.

最後，現金。從這裡的圖表中可以看到，諾基亞技術追繳付款和營運資金釋放的雙重影響導致產生了近 10 億歐元的自由現金流。我們也降低了本季應收帳款的銷售水平，因此本季結束時我們擁有 51 億歐元的淨現金，並有望實現 30% 至 60% 的自由現金流轉換目標。

And with that, let me hand you back over to Pekka.

接下來，讓我把你交還給佩卡。

Thank you, Marco. Firstly, I want to touch on Fixed Networks. We are the market leader with over 40% market share globally, excluding China and OLT products. With our product portfolio and ability to offer customers a road map to deploy GPON, XGS-PON and 25G PON in the same line card, we have a compelling value proposition.

謝謝你，馬可。首先，我想談談固定網路。我們是市場領導者，在全球（不包括中國和 OLT 產品）中擁有超過 40% 的市場份額。憑藉我們的產品組合以及為客戶提供在同一線路卡中部署 GPON、XGS-PON 和 25G PON 的路線圖的能力，我們擁有令人信服的價值主張。

Customers can also upgrade to 50G and 100G in the same chassis down the line with our Lightspan FM -- MF-14 platform. We also launched new ONT products for 25G in the first quarter. These ONTs support both business as well as residential applications.

客戶還可以使用我們的 Lightspan FM - MF-14 平台在同一機箱中升級到 50G 和 100G。我們也在第一季推出了針對25G的新ONT產品。這些 ONT 支援商業和住宅應用。

Looking then at market dynamics, it's important to remember that globally, excluding China, over 70% of homes are still not connected by fiber, and there is a significant opportunity remaining in our biggest markets of both North America and Europe.

看看市場動態，重要的是要記住，全球範圍內（不包括中國）超過 70% 的家庭仍然沒有透過光纖連接，而我們最大的市場北美和歐洲仍然存在巨大的機會。

In North America, we are now seeing some stabilization in demand as inventory positions have improved, and we see the BEAD funding program progressing well, which we will still expect will start to benefit in the second half and more meaningfully in 2025.

在北美，隨著庫存狀況的改善，我們現在看到需求有所穩定，而且我們看到 BEAD 融資計劃進展順利，我們仍然預計該計劃將在下半年開始受益，並在 2025 年更有意義。

In Europe, we see deployments remaining at a high level in markets with low penetration, and we are seeing some mature markets starting to upgrade to XGS PON and 25G PON. We are also seeing good momentum and growth opportunities this year in many of our other regions for Fixed Networks.

在歐洲，我們看到滲透率較低的市場的部署仍保持在較高水平，我們看到一些成熟市場開始升級到 XGS PON 和 25G PON。今年我們在許多其他地區的固定網路也看到了良好的勢頭和成長機會。

Next, I wanted to highlight our Optical Networks business, as we had a number of important launches in the quarter. New services and applications are driving significant increases in Optical Network capacity to the metro edge. Therefore, we have expanded our Optical portfolio to address these needs.

接下來，我想重點介紹我們的光網絡業務，因為我們在本季推出了許多重要產品。新的服務和應用正在推動城域邊緣光網路容量的顯著增加。因此，我們擴大了光學產品組合來滿足這些需求。

In March, we announced the expansion of our pluggable coherent optics portfolio to now include 100, 400 and 800 gigabit per second transceivers. We also introduced new interface cards and chassis that bring scale and efficiency to metro edge applications that serve a diverse set of networking functions needed by our various customer types.

今年 3 月，我們宣布擴展可插拔相干光學產品組合，目前包括 100、400 和 800 Gb/s 收發器。我們也推出了新的介面卡和機箱，為城域邊緣應用帶來規模和效率，為我們各種客戶類型所需的各種網路功能提供服務。

In both IP and Optical Networking, we are clearly recognized as a market leader. This means we are uniquely positioned to serve the evolving needs of our customers in an unbiased way, as they consider various converged IP optical network architecture alternatives. This truly differentiates us from the competition as typically, they only have scale in either IP or optical.

在 IP 和光網路領域，我們被公認為市場領導者。這意味著我們具有獨特的優勢，能夠以公正的方式滿足客戶不斷變化的需求，因為他們正在考慮各種融合 IP 光網路架構替代方案。這確實使我們在競爭中脫穎而出，因為通常他們只在 IP 或光纖方面具有規模。

I now wanted to provide a few words on our Mobile Networks business and our portfolio. Firstly, you can see in the charts, our products now deliver market-leading throughput performance. A few years ago, we were behind on LIME Networks performance for 5G. If you look at performance in LIME Networks today, those cities that use our products are delivering better downlink performance and slightly better uplink performance than our competitors. With each generation of software release, we continue to improve on this.

現在我想簡單介紹一下我們的行動網路業務和我們的產品組合。首先，您可以在圖表中看到，我們的產品現在提供市場領先的吞吐量效能。幾年前，我們在 LIME Networks 的 5G 效能方面落後。如果您查看當今 LIME Networks 的性能，您會發現那些使用我們產品的城市比我們的競爭對手提供更好的下行鏈路性能和略好的上行鏈路性能。隨著每一代軟體的發布，我們都在不斷改進。

Secondly, we offer customers the greatest flexibility in terms of deployment for their networks. Operators are looking at opportunities to virtualize and optimize their network deployments. With our anyRAN approach, we offer the greatest flexibility in compute platform between different servers, CPUs and even cloud platforms for their baseband deployments, all while maintaining future parity with our purpose-built baseband solutions.

其次，我們為客戶的網路部署提供最大的靈活性。營運商正在尋找虛擬化和優化其網路部署的機會。借助我們的anyRAN方法，我們在不同伺服器、CPU甚至雲端平台之間的基頻部署提供了最大的運算平台靈活性，同時保持了與我們專門建置的基頻解決方案的未來對等性。

Finally, we remain the most committed and engaged on the traditional equipment vendors to O-RAN. We are the largest contributor to developing the open interfaces with a transparent road map on product availability. We have completed operability with 5 different radio suppliers. This has also been helping us commercially with deals signed with Deutsche Telekom and NTT DOCOMO last year, along with the deal we signed in February with Rakuten.

最後，我們仍然是 O-RAN 最致力於和參與的傳統設備供應商。我們是開發開放介面的最大貢獻者，並在產品可用性方面提供透明的路線圖。我們已經與 5 家不同的無線電供應商完成了可操作性。這也為我們去年與德國電信和 NTT DOCOMO 簽署的商業協議以及 2 月與樂天簽署的協議提供了幫助。

The next topic I wanted to talk about is how we are helping operators address their 2 biggest challenges: automating their operations and reducing OpEx as network complexity grows and also how they can monetize their 5G networks. Let me explain how our technology enables this in a way that nobody else in the market is doing.

我想談論的下一個主題是我們如何幫助營運商解決他們的兩個最大挑戰：隨著網路複雜性的成長實現營運自動化和降低營運支出，以及他們如何透過 5G 網路貨幣化。讓我解釋一下我們的技術如何以市場上其他人無法做到的方式實現這一點。

Regarding automation, we have the capability to drive 0 touch autonomous operations across all network domains. We manage autonomous operations across multi-lender networks, meaning that we are providing this service management and orchestration in customer networks that combine multiple vendors, rather than only orchestrating our own networks. This has been helping us to win against the competition and benefits from our position of having firsthand knowledge and deep expertise across RAN, transport core and the many different capabilities you see on the slide.

在自動化方面，我們有能力在所有網路域中驅動零接觸自主操作。我們管理跨多貸方網路的自主運營，這意味著我們在結合多個供應商的客戶網路中提供這種服務管理和編排，而不僅僅是編排我們自己的網路。這一直幫助我們贏得競爭，並受益於我們在 RAN、傳輸核心和幻燈片上看到的許多不同功能方面擁有第一手知識和深厚專業知識的地位。

On the monetization side, our holistic solution is what also enables network programmability and the ability for CSPs to expose their APIs to developers using our network as core platform. This is a key point, and we already have 11 operator agreements for our platform.

在貨幣化方面，我們的整體解決方案還支援網路可程式性以及 CSP 能夠使用我們的網路作為核心平台向開發人員公開其 API。這是一個關鍵點，我們的平台已經有 11 份營運商協議。

To fully benefit from the emerging network APIs, CSPs need their operations to be fully automated because the API paradigm assumes an application interacts directly with the network in real time. In fact, we have customers who are purchasing our autonomous operations specifically to accelerate their API exposure strategy. Secure autonomous operations also underpin the ability to achieve network slicing at scale, which is another 5G monetization vehicle.

為了充分受益於新興的網路 API，CSP 需要其營運完全自動化，因為 API 範例假設應用程式直接與網路即時互動。事實上，我們有客戶專門購買我們的自主運營，以加速他們的 API 開放策略。安全的自主運作也支撐了大規模實現網路切片的能力，這是另一種 5G 貨幣化工具。

To conclude, we have a highly differentiated solution for orchestration, which enables our customers to monetize their networks and run secure autonomous operations to address their biggest challenges in a way that none of our competitors can do.

總而言之，我們擁有高度差異化的編排解決方案，使我們的客戶能夠透過其網路獲利並運行安全的自主運營，以我們的競爭對手無法做到的方式解決他們面臨的最大挑戰。

I also wanted to highlight some partnerships that we announced in the quarter that will benefit both our Mobile Networks and Cloud and Network Services businesses. At Mobile World Congress, we announced the strategic partnership with Dell. On the Nokia side, we will now adapt Dell as our preferred infrastructure partner for existing Nokia AirFrame customers, which will enable us to refocus our R&D efforts into areas where we can really differentiate as Nokia.

我還想強調我們在本季宣布的一些合作夥伴關係，這些合作夥伴關係將使我們的行動網路以及雲端和網路服務業務受益。在世界行動通訊大會上，我們宣布與戴爾建立策略夥伴關係。在諾基亞方面，我們現在將把戴爾作為我們現有諾基亞 AirFrame 客戶的首選基礎設施合作夥伴，這將使我們能夠將研發工作重新集中到我們能夠真正像諾基亞一樣脫穎而出的領域。

Secondly, our private wireless solution, NDAC, or Nokia Digital Automation Cloud, will become Dell's preferred private wireless platform for enterprise customers. And we can see this becoming a very powerful channel to further drive growth in private wireless.

其次，我們的私人無線解決方案NDAC（即諾基亞數位自動化雲）將成為戴爾企業客戶首選的私人無線平台。我們可以看到這將成為進一步推動私人無線成長的非常強大的管道。

We also announced a partnership with NVIDIA that will help us to broaden the compute platforms we support with our anyRAN solution that I talked about earlier for Cloud RAN deployments. This will help us to accelerate the opportunities to bring AI capabilities into the RAN network. We will also partner with NVIDIA on some elements of 6G research.

我們也宣布與 NVIDIA 建立合作夥伴關係，這將有助於我們擴大我們先前談到的用於 Cloud RAN 部署的 anyRAN 解決方案所支援的運算平台。這將有助於我們加速將人工智慧能力引入 RAN 網路的機會。我們也將與 NVIDIA 合作進行 6G 研究的一些內容。

And finally, in Nokia Technologies, as a quick reminder of some of the new growth areas we are now focusing on, we have been making strong progress in more developed areas, like automotive and consumer electronics. You can see on the slide some of the recent deal examples here. We also see areas like IoT and multimedia as strong opportunities where we are in active negotiations, but the markets are still in the early stages of development.

最後，在諾基亞科技公司，我們正在關註一些新的成長領域，我們在汽車和消費性電子產品等更發達的領域取得了強勁進展。您可以在投影片上看到一些最近的交易範例。我們也認為物聯網和多媒體等領域是巨大的機遇，我們正在積極談判這些領域，但市場仍處於發展的早期階段。

In multimedia, for example, we have a strong patent portfolio covering multiple technologies, including video compression, content delivery, content recommendation and aspects related to hardware. In these areas, we see a promising pipeline to increase our licensing net sales run rate.

例如，在多媒體領域，我們擁有強大的專利組合，涵蓋多種技術，包括視訊壓縮、內容交付、內容推薦以及與硬體相關的方面。在這些領域，我們看到了一個有前景的管道，可以提高我們的許可淨銷售運行率。

So to conclude, while the market weakness remains, we do see improving order trends, giving us confidence that we will return to growth in the second half of the year, particularly in Network Infrastructure. We have now concluded the smartphone renewal cycle, which allows Nokia Technologies to enter a period of stability and can therefore focus its efforts on the expansion areas we discussed. The deal signed also contributed to the strong cash generation we saw in Q1.

總而言之，儘管市場依然疲軟，但我們確實看到訂單趨勢有所改善，這讓我們有信心在下半年恢復成長，特別是在網路基礎設施領域。我們現在已經結束了智慧型手機更新周期，這使得諾基亞技術進入了一個穩定時期，因此可以將精力集中在我們討論的擴展領域。簽署的交易也為我們在第一季看到的強勁現金產生做出了貢獻。

In the meantime, we will continue to execute on our cost savings plans to optimize margins during this weaker environment, while maintaining our commitment to R&D investment. These cost actions, along with the expected improvements in net sales into the second half of the year, give us confidence that we are solidly on track to deliver our outlook for 2024.

同時，我們將繼續執行成本節約計劃，以在疲軟的環境下優化利潤，同時保持對研發投資的承諾。這些成本行動，加上下半年淨銷售額的預期改善，讓我們相信我們正在穩步實現 2024 年的前景。

So with that, let me pass you back to David, who will introduce the Q&A section of the call.

那麼，讓我把你轉回給大衛，他將介紹電話會議的問答部分。

Thank you, Pekka and Marco for the presentations. (Operator Instructions) George, can you please give the instructions?

謝謝 Pekka 和 Marco 的演講。 （操作員指示）喬治，您能給個指示嗎？

(Operator Instructions) I will now hand the call back to Mr. David Mulholland.

（接線員指示）我現在將電話轉回給 David Mulholland 先生。

Thanks, George. We'll take our first question today from Artem Beletski from SEB.

謝謝，喬治。今天我們將回答 SEB 的 Artem Beletski 提出的第一個問題。

I actually would like to pick some further thoughts from you regarding full year guidance. So looking at Q1 development, I think it's fair to say that when it comes to network segment, so there has been a bit steeper decline than what you have suggested initially.

實際上，我想從您那裡收集一些關於全年指導的進一步想法。因此，看看第一季的發展，我認為可以公平地說，當涉及到網路段時，下降幅度比您最初建議的要大一些。

But at the same time, you are quite positive when it comes to order situation. Could you maybe comment on balance? Are you more confident when it comes to full year guidance and outlook versus previously, for example, in accordance with Q4 results?

但同時，您對訂單狀況也相當樂觀。您能否評論一下平衡性？與之前相比，例如根據第四季度的業績，您對全年指導和展望是否更有信心？

Thank you, Artem. Well, first of all, as I already said, we saw some positive order trends already in Q4, especially Network Infrastructure, and we were pleased to see that those trends continued in Q1. And then in addition to NI, we also commented that order trends in CNS were positive in Q1, and this is not only on the orders that we have, but this also led to the pipeline of new opportunities that we are seeing.

謝謝你，阿爾喬姆。好吧，首先，正如我已經說過的，我們在第四季度已經看到了一些積極的訂單趨勢，特別是網路基礎設施，我們很高興看到這些趨勢在第一季持續存在。然後，除了 NI 之外，我們還評論說，第一季 CNS 的訂單趨勢是正面的，這不僅體現在我們擁有的訂單上，而且還導致了我們看到的新機會的出現。

So obviously, it's hard to give a simple answer on the confidence level, but nothing has really changed. I mean, we remain confident on the full year forecast. We are obviously 3 months into the year, and the trends are largely playing out from order intake perspective as we would have hoped.

顯然，很難就置信水準給出簡單的答案，但沒有任何真正的改變。我的意思是，我們對全年預測仍然充滿信心。顯然，今年已經過去了 3 個月，從訂單量的角度來看，趨勢基本上正在顯現，正如我們所希望的那樣。

There is always some variability between quarters. And in NI, you saw that our kind of comments were now a bit more positive on Fixed Networks and a bit more cautious on Optical Networks. But as a whole, nothing has changed from Q4.

季度之間總是存在一些差異。在 NI 中，您會看到我們現在對固定網路的評論更加積極，對光網路的評論更加謹慎。但整體而言，與第四季相比沒有任何變化。

Do you have a follow-up, Artem?

你有後續嗎，Artem？

Yes, indeed. And a quick follow-up is, and this is related to Fixed Networks. And as you mentioned, the outlook for this year has improved. Could you maybe elaborate a bit where from it is coming? Is it the BEAD program, more broad-based inventory situation as you see it right now?

確實是的。快速跟進是，這與固定網路有關。正如您所提到的，今年的前景有所改善。您能否詳細說明一下它是從哪裡來的？是 BEAD 計劃，還是您現在看到的更廣泛的庫存情況？

It's actually a combination of those. I mean, the outlook in North America is looking more positive. Now we have some exciting fixed wireless access developments in Asia Pacific. It's fairly broad based. And when it comes to BEAD, of course, I mean, that is a long-term development. So you will see some benefit from that in the second half of the year, but then even more into '25 and '26.

它實際上是這些的組合。我的意思是，北美的前景看起來更加積極。現在，我們在亞太地區取得了一些令人興奮的固定無線存取發展。它的基礎相當廣泛。當然，說到BEAD，我的意思是，這是一個長期的發展。因此，您會在今年下半年看到一些好處，但到 25 和 26 年會受益更多。

Thanks, Artem. We'll take our next question from Daniel Djurberg from Handelsbanken.

謝謝，阿爾喬姆。我們將接受德國商業銀行的 Daniel Djurberg 提出的下一個問題。

I will have a question a little bit on the organization changes you did starting from Q4, but took place officially from start of the year. A little bit of reshuffling, I guess, and also in C level managers, et cetera. How has this impacted the operations in Q1? And should we expect this to, if it has, is it now settled and so the focus can be on customer going forward?

我想問一下你們從第四季開始進行的、但從今年年初開始正式進行的組織變革。我猜想，C 級經理也會進行一些改組，等等。這對第一季的營運有何影響？我們是否應該期望這種情況發生（如果確實如此），現在是否已經解決，因此未來的重點可以放在客戶身上？

Yes. Thank you, Daniel. The reshuffling of the organization has been completed. We did it very quickly. It was put into force in the beginning of the year. We basically used Q4 for planning. The old organization remained in place all Q4. And then overnight on January 1, the new organization was put in place. Obviously, there is -- when you do this type of a reshuffle, of course, there is a period of instability, but we are already behind that. And now we are seeing the new organization has started to accumulate speed and gain more and more traction.

是的。謝謝你，丹尼爾。組織機構調整已經完成。我們做得很快。該辦法已於今年初實施。我們基本上使用第四季進行規劃。舊組織在整個第四季都保持不變。 1 月 1 日一夜之間，新的組織就位了。顯然，當你進行這種類型的洗牌時，當然會有一段不穩定時期，但我們已經落後了。現在我們看到新組織已經開始累積速度並獲得越來越多的關注。

What I do want to emphasize is that when we talk about the business groups being more autonomous and also running sales, a very important principle also in the new model is that for all key customers, there is always an account executive that is responsible for our overall strategy and relationship with the customer being one part of the role. And then the second part of the role being the coordination of all multi-business group topics for that customer. So this is important to note that we are not approaching these customers in silos.

我想強調的是，當我們談論業務部門更加自主並同時進行銷售時，新模式中的一個非常重要的原則是，對於所有關鍵客戶，總有一位客戶經理負責我們的業務。的關係是該角色的一部分。該角色的第二部分是協調該客戶的所有多業務組主題。因此，值得注意的是，我們並不是孤立地接觸這些客戶。

The purpose of this whole thing, as I communicated also earlier, is to really bring the customers closer to the decision-makers of our businesses and the people that make decisions on the solutions that we bring to the market and people that sit on the crucial R&D resources. We want to shorten the distance between the customer and the business decision makers and really place highly empowered teams in front of the customer.

正如我之前所傳達的，這整件事的目的是真正讓客戶更接近我們企業的決策者、對我們推向市場的解決方案做出決策的人員以及坐在關鍵位置的人員。我們希望拉近客戶與業務決策者之間的距離，真正將高度授權的團隊置於客戶面前。

Do you have a follow-up, Daniel?

丹尼爾，你有後續嗎？

I can take a quick one on Mobile Networks. Do you -- did you have any contract reach finds from AT&T or something in the numbers? Or should we expect anything like that to materialize ahead?

我可以快速了解行動網路。你有沒有從 AT&T 那裡找到任何合約或數字？或者我們應該期待類似的事情會在未來實現嗎？

There were no such elements in the Q1 numbers. When it comes to the AT&T situation, we do not have any updates at this stage. Negotiations are still ongoing with respect to the conclusion of the existing contract.

第一季的數據中沒有這樣的元素。至於 AT&T 的情況，我們現階段沒有任何更新。關於簽訂現有合約的談判仍在進行中。

Thanks, Daniel. We'll take our next question from Alexander Duval from Goldman Sachs.

謝謝，丹尼爾。我們將回答高盛亞歷山大·杜瓦爾的下一個問題。

Firstly, you referenced O-RAN solutions in your prepared remarks. I think one of your competitors are -- is talking about seeing increased market activity in that area. So I was just curious if you're seeing a greater prevalence of O-RAN requests in deal discussions. And if so, whether that had any implications to your R&D road map.

首先，您在準備好的發言中提到了 O-RAN 解決方案。我認為你們的競爭對手之一正在談論看到該領域的市場活動增加。因此，我只是好奇您是否發現 O-RAN 請求在交易討論中更為普遍。如果是這樣，這是否對您的研發路線圖有任何影響。

And second, just to come back on NI. Just wondered if you could help us sort of understand the degree of visibility you have there. Obviously, you've talked about some improvement in orders. However, last year, I think there was a sort of very positive outlook at the start of the year. And then through the year, things became more tricky on that side. So just wondered if something has changed this year. Which would be the sort of key positive drivers that give you confidence on the visibility there?

其次，回到 NI。只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解您在那裡的可見度。顯然，您談到了訂單的一些改進。然而，去年，我認為年初有一種非常積極的前景。然後這一年，事情變得更加棘手。所以只是想知道今年是否發生了變化。哪些關鍵的積極驅動因素可以讓您對那裡的可見度充滿信心？

Okay. Thank you. If I take the O-RAN question first. So the interest is gradually increasing, and I think it's a good thing. We are -- as you know, we have been, from the beginning, a strong supporter of O-RAN, the strongest contributor to the standard.

好的。謝謝。如果我先回答 O-RAN 問題。所以興趣逐漸增加，我認為這是一件好事。如您所知，我們從一開始就是 O-RAN 的堅定支持者，是該標準最強而有力的貢獻者。

We have several real customer implementations, commercial implementations underway, and we are clearly the leader as to the company, all the companies who have tested and demonstrated interoperability between our solutions and other vendor solutions.

我們有幾個真正的客戶實施，商業實施正在進行中，而且我們顯然是公司的領導者，所有公司都測試並證明了我們的解決方案與其他供應商解決方案之間的互通性。

So we are welcoming the increased interest on O-RAN, and we believe that we are fully competitive, regardless which of the scenarios in terms of O-RAN speed will materialize. Of course, part of this is also the other aspect of network evolution development, which is the cloudification of this, especially the basement functions of the network. And there, I can say the same thing.

因此，我們歡迎人們對 O-RAN 興趣的增加，並且我們相信，無論 O-RAN 速度方面的哪種場景將會實現，我們都具有充分的競爭力。當然這一部分也是網路演進發展的另一個面向，就是這個的雲化，特別是網路的底層功能。在那裡，我可以說同樣的話。

This is, of course, a different thing from the open front-haul interface that O-RAN will bring. But often, these two will coexist in the future. And we are equally pleased to be clearly one of the leaders in the cloud on development as well. Exciting initiatives going on with multiple customers in different parts of the world.

當然，這與O-RAN將帶來的開放前傳介面不同。但往往，這兩者在未來會共存。我們同樣很高興能成為雲端開發領域的領導者之一。與世界不同地區的多個客戶正在進行令人興奮的計劃。

Then when it comes to the NI, of course, a very important thing to note there, which we have said earlier, but I do repeat it also here, is that 2023 was kind of an exception because there was in Q1, as you remember, more than 15% margin -- operating margin in NI because of the catch-up deliveries that we had that when -- that came from the supply chain shortages that affected volumes in 2022.

然後，說到NI，當然，有一件非常重要的事情需要注意，我們之前已經說過，但我在這裡也重複一遍，那就是2023 年是一個例外，因為正如你所記得的，因為第一季度有例外超過 15% 的利潤率——NI 的營業利潤率是因為我們當時的赶超交付——來自供應鏈短缺，影響了 2022 年的銷售量。

So there were 2 things then that happened in '23. Operators network build-out pace slowed down. And on top of that, they consumed a lot of the inventories that they had built. And then we were recovering from the supply chain situation.

23 年發生了兩件事。營運商網路建設步伐放緩。最重要的是，他們消耗了大量自己建立的庫存。然後我們就從供應鏈的情況中恢復過來。

So the dynamics of 2023 were really, really exceptional. And this year, we are moving back to a much more kind of normal seasonality, where Q1 is the weakest and then gradually, it improves towards a stronger second half, and then Q4 being the strongest. So this is what we are expecting this year.

所以 2023 年的動態真的非常非常特別。今年，我們將回到更正常的季節性，其中第一季最弱，然後逐漸向下半年更強的方向改善，然後第四季最強。這就是我們今年的預期。

And the good thing is that the order trends that we see in NI, they started to support this already in Q4 last year, and those trends have continued in the first quarter of this year, especially in Fixed Networks in North America, in fixed wireless access, for example, with a significant customer in Asia Pacific.

好消息是，我們在 NI 中看到的訂單趨勢，他們在去年第四季度就開始支持這一點，並且這些趨勢在今年第一季度繼續存在，特別是在北美的固定網路、固定無線領域例如，訪問亞太地區的重要客戶。

In IP Networks, we continue to see tailwinds in the second half of the year from enterprise and webscale wins. And as I said, it now seems that in Optical Networks, recovery could take a little bit longer than originally expected. This is consistent with what some of our Optical Networks competitors have commented.

在 IP 網路領域，我們在下半年繼續看到企業和網路規模勝利帶來的推動力。正如我所說，現在看來，在光網路中，恢復時間可能比最初預期的要長一些。這與我們的一些光網絡競爭對手的評論一致。

And then maybe finally, on Submarine Networks, there, we are executing on a strong backlog. So the weak delivery, so weak top line in Q1 was more related to project timing impact in Q1 than the strength of the order backlog. And in addition to the order backlog in Submarine, there is a strong pipeline of new opportunities as well. So maybe there is some ammunition to deal with your -- address your question with these things that I went through.

也許最後，在海底網路上，我們正​​在執行大量的積壓工作。因此，第一季交付疲軟、營收疲軟更多與第一季專案時間影響有關，而不是與訂單積壓的強度有關。除了 Submarine 的訂單積壓之外，還有大量新機會。所以也許有一些彈藥可以解決你的問題——用我經歷過的這些事情來解決你的問題。

Thanks, Alex. We'll take our next question from Sébastien Sztabowicz from Kepler Cheuvreux.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。我們將回答來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Sébastien Sztabowicz 的下一個問題。

On Mobile Networks, you started also the year on a very soft pass, and you need to accelerate strongly your revenue growth in the next few quarters to reach your guidance, minus 10, minus 15. What kind of visibility do you have on the acceleration of sales growth in Mobile Networks?

在行動網路方面，您今年的開局也非常溫和，您需要在接下來的幾季中大力加速您的收入成長，以達到您的指導，負10，負15。 ？

And second question is on the U.S. market, specifically in Mobile. It seems the environment remained depressed in the first quarter. When do you expect the inventory correction to be completed or the demand to be back in the U.S. market in Mobile Networks?

第二個問題是關於美國市場，特別是行動市場。看起來第一季的環境仍然低迷。您預期庫存調整何時完成或美國行動網路市場的需求何時恢復？

Q1 was, of course, very weak from a top line perspective. This was largely because of India. And again, here, you have to remember what happened last year, especially the first half of 2023, you saw a massive 5G deployment in India. And now those volumes have normalized.

當然，從營收角度來看，第一季非常疲軟。這主要是因為印度。在這裡，你必須記住去年發生的事情，特別是2023年上半年，你看到印度大規模部署5G。現在這些數量已經正常化。

We do expect that the low volumes in both India and North America in Q1 will improve then in the coming quarters. And this is based on, obviously, a combination of the visibility that we have through order backlog and then also the discussions on the pipeline that we have with these customers. So we do maintain the 10% to 15% decline expectation in Mobile Networks for the year. The second question was?

我們確實預計，印度和北美第一季的低銷售量將在未來幾季得到改善。顯然，這是基於我們透過訂單積壓獲得的可見性以及我們與這些客戶就管道進行的討論的結合。因此，我們維持今年行動網路下降 10% 至 15% 的預期。第二個問題是？

Inventory levels in North America.

北美的庫存水準。

Do you want to take that, Marco?

你想接受這個嗎，馬可？

Yes, I can take that one. As we said last year in quarter 4 as well that the inventory level issue was more a '23 issue, and it's much less an issue this year. The -- what we see now in North America is that, of course, the macroeconomic environment is also impacting our customers' investment levels, and we will see this during this year as well. And -- but we'll also mention that Q1 is exceptionally low, and we see that this is a low point of Mobile Networks' top line as well. .

是的，我可以接受那個。正如我們去年第四季所說，庫存水準問題更多的是 23 年的問題，今年的問題少得多。我們現在在北美看到的是，當然，宏觀經濟環境也在影響我們客戶的投資水平，我們今年也將看到這一點。而且，我們還會提到第一季的營收非常低，我們發現這也是行動網路營收的低點。 。

Thanks, Sébastien. We'll take our next question from Sami Sarkamies from Danske Bank.

謝謝，塞巴斯蒂安。我們將接受丹麥銀行 Sami Sarkamies 提出的下一個問題。

I have a question regarding your balance sheet. It's looking at quite overcapitalized relative to your net cash target range. And if we think about the share buyback programs, you have decided for this year, next year for EUR 600 million. That's unlikely to kind of fix the overcapitalization issue.

我有一個關於你們資產負債表的問題。相對於您的淨現金目標範圍，它的資本似乎相當過剩。如果我們考慮股票回購計劃，您已經決定今年和明年的股票回購計劃為 6 億歐元。這不太可能解決資本過剩問題。

Are you willing to revisit the share buyback program decision before '26, as I think you may be in a position to buy back more than the EUR 600 million that has been decided already?

您是否願意在 26 年之前重新考慮股票回購計畫決定，因為我認為您可能有能力回購超過已決定的 6 億歐元？

Yes. Thank you, Sami. And yes, we are -- we had a very good cash generation this year in quarter 1 and -- about EUR 1 billion, and the net cash is at EUR 5.1 billion at the moment. We will look into this more over time and what actions we should take.

是的。謝謝你，薩米。是的，我們今年第一季的現金產生非常好，約為 10 億歐元，目前淨現金為 51 億歐元。隨著時間的推移，我們將進一步研究這個問題以及我們應該採取哪些行動。

But of course, in the end, it is the Board of Directors' decision what they want to do. And as we've said that our target is to have a net cash position between 10% to 15% of our net sales, and that target remains. So there's no immediate actions that are expected. But of course, this is something that the company and the Board is looking over, over time.

但當然，最終他們想做什麼是由董事會決定的。正如我們所說，我們的目標是淨現金部位佔淨銷售額的 10% 至 15%，而該目標仍然存在。因此，預計不會立即採取行動。當然，隨著時間的推移，這是公司和董事會正在考慮的事情。

Do you have a follow-up, Sami?

薩米，你有後續嗎？

Yes. Maybe regarding the gross margin at Mobile Networks. You commented that half of the improvement was not sustainable. Is that going to normalize already in the second quarter?

是的。也許與行動網路的毛利率有關。您評論說一半的改善是不可持續的。這種情況會在第二季恢復正常嗎？

Yes. I would say that, as we mentioned, it's more about retrofit and warranty and that kind of costs that were exceptionally low in the first quarter. And we expect that this should be more normalized going forward.

是的。我想說，正如我們所提到的，更多的是關於改造和保固以及第一季異常低的成本。我們預計未來這種情況應該會更加正常化。

Thanks, Sami. We'll take our next question from Simon Leopold from Raymond James.

謝謝，薩米。我們將回答雷蒙德·詹姆斯的西蒙·利奧波德提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to see if you could talk a little bit about the diversification efforts. You didn't update us this quarter, I think, on the portion of revenue coming from enterprises and other non-telcos.

我想看看您是否可以談談多元化的努力。我認為，您本季沒有向我們通報來自企業和其他非電信公司的收入部分的最新情況。

And within that, if you could elaborate on your expectations for how particularly the webscale could develop, if you could envision your switching business contributions, they are getting bigger than optical and routing.

其中，如果您可以詳細說明您對網路規模如何具體發展的期望，如果您可以設想您的交換業務貢獻，它們將變得比光纖和路由更大。

Well, this is not a negative comment about optical and routing in any way, but we absolutely target to grow the switching business as quickly as possible. But of course, when you deal with a large -- especially with the large webscalers, it takes time with these customers to ramp up volumes. But that business is clearly ramping, as we speak, and it is ramping based on some real deals that we have with these customers.

嗯，這並不是對光纖和路由的負面評論，但我們的絕對目標是盡快發展交換業務。但當然，當您與大型客戶打交道時，尤其是大型網路擴展商，需要花時間與這些客戶打交道才能增加數量。但正如我們所說，該業務顯然正在成長，而且它的成長是基於我們與這些客戶達成的一些實際交易。

In general, the non-CSP business, which is the part of share of which we intend to grow, we had also in that segment -- customer segment, good order intake growth in Q1, much better orders than in Q1 last year. And we do expect that when we look at the full year, that the double-digit top line growth will continue in the non-CSP segment.

總的來說，非CSP 業務是我們打算成長的份額的一部分，我們也在該細分市場——客戶細分市場，第一季的訂單量成長良好，訂單量比去年第一季好得多。我們確實預計，當我們審視全年時，非 CSP 領域將繼續實現兩位數的收入成長。

Do you have a follow-up, Simon?

西蒙，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. Just a brief follow-up. I know it's a gradual transition. But any updates you can offer in terms of displacements of Huawei, particularly in Europe? Has there been progress there?

是的。只是一個簡短的後續行動。我知道這是一個漸進的過渡。但是，關於華為的位移，特別是在歐洲，您能提供什麼最新消息嗎？那裡有進展嗎？

Yes. It is gradual progress, so it's difficult to give you any kind of overnight changes or anything like that. But in typical, Chinese vendors account 20% to 30% in markets outside of China, outside of the U.S., of course.

是的。這是漸進的過程，所以很難給你任何一夜之間的改變或類似的東西。但通常情況下，中國供應商在中國以外的市場（當然是美國以外的市場）中佔據 20% 到 30% 的份額。

We estimate that last year, in Mobile Networks and Network Infrastructure, the Chinese vendors have roughly -- or had roughly EUR 12 billion in sales outside of China and about half, which is EUR 6 billion, of that in Europe. And this is obviously an ongoing discussion in several European countries that -- how they should deal with that question. But gradually, the importance of this opportunity for us is continue to grow.

我們估計，去年在行動網路和網路基礎設施領域，中國供應商在中國境外的銷售額約為 120 億歐元，其中約一半（即 60 億歐元）來自歐洲。顯然，幾個歐洲國家正在討論他們應該如何處理這個問題。但漸漸地，這個機會對我們來說的重要性正在不斷成長。

Thanks, Simon. We'll take our next question from Richard Kramer from Arete.

謝謝，西蒙。我們將回答來自 Arete 的 Richard Kramer 的下一個問題。

Pekka, I appreciate this might be a difficult question. When we look at MN sales, they're down by about 1/3, but R&D is actually up and remaining well over EUR 500 million, and your guidance is for a low single-digit margin.

佩卡，我知道這可能是一個困難的問題。當我們查看明尼蘇達州的銷售額時，它們下降了約 1/3，但研發實際上有所增加，並保持在 5 億歐元以上，而您的指導是較低的個位數利潤率。

How do you potentially reduce exposure over time to MN given what's going to be a lower margin profile for that business and reduced scale? Is there any way to bring down that R&D expenditure, while remaining competitive? Or is that just simply going to be the lower margin portion of your business for the foreseeable future?

鑑於 MN 業務的利潤率較低且規模縮小，您如何隨著時間的推移減少對 MN 的風險敞口？有什麼方法可以降低研發支出，同時保持競爭力？或者在可預見的未來，這只是您業務中利潤率較低的部分？

Well, obviously, when we are implementing our cost reductions, and you remember what we announced on a group level after Q3, EUR 800 million to EUR 1.2 billion cost reduction. I think we said that about 60% of that would be Mobile Networks, but clearly implemented in such a way that we would always protect R&D outputs because that is crucial.

嗯，顯然，當我們實施成本削減時，您還記得我們在第三季後在集團層級宣布的成本削減 8 億至 12 億歐元。我認為我們說過其中約 60% 是行動網絡，但明確實施的方式是我們始終保護研發成果，因為這至關重要。

We are not going to let the situation repeat itself, where we were behind our competition in 5G competitiveness in the early stages of 5G. Now we have caught up, and we intend to stay in that lead when we gradually develop towards 5G-Advanced and then 6G. So that is something that we will always protect.

我們不會讓5G初期我們在5G競爭力上落後的情況重演。現在我們已經追上了，當我們逐步向5G-Advanced和6G發展時，我們打算保持領先。所以這是我們將永遠保護的東西。

But having said that, of course, there are always ways to improve R&D productivity, and that is something that we are investing heavily on and with pretty good results. I mean, we have been able to increase our R&D output and productivity with fairly stable R&D investment, and this is something that we expect to continue in the future.

但話雖如此，當然，提高研發效率的方法總是有的，我們在這方面投入了大量資金，並且取得了不錯的成果。我的意思是，我們已經能夠透過相當穩定的研發投入來提高我們的研發產出和生產力，而這是我們期望在未來繼續下去的事情。

I'm not saying exactly where the R&D volume in terms of euros in MN will be in the future. Through AI with co-pilots for software programmers, et cetera, there is a real case for improving software R&D productivity. And of course, we will seek to take maximum advantage of these opportunities as well.

我並不是說明尼蘇達州未來以歐元計算的研發量具體在哪裡。透過人工智慧與軟體程式設計師的副駕駛等，有一個提高軟體研發生產力的真實案例。當然，我們也將尋求最大限度地利用這些機會。

Do you have a follow-up, Richard?

理查德，你有後續嗎？

Okay. Yes, very quickly. For Marco, you're coming up at the end of June to sort of the extended contractual agreement with Nokia Shanghai Bell. Can you give us a sense, by the time you report next time you'll have to have concluded that, where you're going to stand with respect to that, the potential liabilities and how you expect that to play out with the -- what that longstanding asset you've had in China?

好的。是的，很快。對於Marco，您將在六月底與上海諾基亞貝爾簽訂延期合約協議。你能否給我們一個感覺，當你下次報告時，你必須得出這樣的結論：你將在這方面採取什麼立場，潛在的責任以及你期望它如何與--您在中國擁有的長期資產是什麼？

Yes. This is something that, of course, we will discuss with our counter-party in China as well. And whenever we have any news, we will inform you about this.

是的。當然，我們也會與中國的對方討論這個問題。每當我們有任何消息時，我們都會通知您。

Thanks, Richard. We'll take our next question from Joseph Zhou from Barclays.

謝謝，理查。我們將接受巴克萊銀行 Joseph Zhou 的下一個問題。

And the first one is, can you quantify how much of the 37% organic sales decline in Mobile Networks or the 40% in North America for that division was really driven by the impact of the AT&T deal?

第一個問題是，您能否量化該部門行動網路 37% 的有機銷售額下降或北美 40% 的有機銷售額下降有多少真正是由 AT&T 交易的影響造成的？

Yes. Thank you, Joseph. The North America as a whole, we saw weakness in quarter 1, and there's not any specific customer that this is directed to. And when it comes to AT&T, we don't have any update when it comes to the contractual discussions and negotiations that we have with them right now. It is still ongoing. And whenever we conclude, we will inform you about that as well.

是的。謝謝你，約瑟夫。在整個北美地區，我們在第一季看到了疲軟，並且沒有針對任何特定客戶。至於 AT&T，我們目前與他們進行的合約討論和談判沒有任何最新消息。目前仍在進行中。每當我們得出結論時，我們也會通知您。

And exactly how the rest of the year will develop in North America, we follow this very carefully as well. And then remember that AT&T continues to be a very important customer for Nokia as a group. But also for Mobile Networks, they continue to sell other services to AT&T, like femto, microwave and some other services well going forward.

今年剩下的時間北美將如何發展，我們也非常仔細地關注。請記住，AT&T 仍然是諾基亞集團非常重要的客戶。但對於行動網路來說，他們繼續向 AT&T 出售其他服務，例如 femto、微波和其他一些正在穩步發展的服務。

Do you have a follow-up, Joseph?

約瑟夫，你有後續嗎？

Yes. My second question is especially on China, and there has been some recent news about the government is kind of stripping out the foreign chips from the telecom equipment. And as I understand, all your chips are foreign chips coming from the likes of Marvell, Intel, Broadcom, et cetera.

是的。我的第二個問題特別是關於中國，最近有一些消息指出政府正在從電信設備中剔除外國晶片。據我了解，你們所有的晶片都是來自 Marvell、Intel、Broadcom 等公司的外國晶片。

And does this mean your China sales will -- there's a risk that your China sales go to very minimal? And also have you seen any impact from that in Q1 at all? Or is it mostly just like the government books?

這是否意味著您在中國的銷售額將有可能降至最低水準的風險？您是否看到第一季的任何影響？或者它基本上就像政府書籍一樣？

No. We have not seen any impact of that. And I have to say that we still need more clarity around that statement because there are so-called foreign chips in pretty much all parts of all networks. So it's very hard to see that -- what that would mean in practice.

沒有。我不得不說，我們仍然需要進一步澄清這一聲明，因為幾乎所有網路的所有部分都存在所謂的外國晶片。所以很難看出這一點——這在實踐中意味著什麼。

So we need more clarity about that. But important for us is to, of course, remember that our market share in China is fairly low. And China accounts only -- Mainland China accounts only for a low single-digit percentage of our sales.

所以我們需要更清楚地了解這一點。但當然，對我們來說重要的是要記住，我們在中國的市佔率相當低。而中國僅占我們銷售額的一小部分。

Thanks, Joseph. We'll take our next question from Sandeep Deshpande from JPMorgan.

謝謝，約瑟夫。我們將回答摩根大通的桑迪普·德什潘德 (Sandeep Deshpande) 提出的下一個問題。

I have a question on the growth of your routing and switches business in the enterprise and where you are at this point there. In terms of design win activity, there was a lot of design win activity in this business a year or slightly more than a year ago, but it seems to have not been followed up to some extent. So maybe I'd like to hear on that business.

我有一個關於你們企業中路由和交換器業務的成長以及你們目前處於什麼位置的問題。在設計獲勝活動方面，一年或一年多前，該業務有很多設計獲勝活動，但似乎在某種程度上沒有跟進。所以也許我想聽聽有關該業務的資訊。

And then I have a follow-up on the mobile business itself. Now when -- with the loss of the U.S. customers, I mean, you are clearly thinking about the mobile business in the long term. Clearly, you have a strategy for 2026.

然後我對行動業務本身進行了跟進。現在，隨著美國客戶的流失，我的意思是，您顯然正在長期考慮行動業務。顯然，您已經制定了 2026 年策略。

But is there a strategy beyond? Does this business have to go back and get back to U.S. customers? Or is this that is going to be remain a subscale business for you or there is some other strategy to make it a much more profitable business?

但除此之外還有其他策略嗎？這項業務是否必須返回並返回給美國客戶？或者這對您來說仍然是一項規模較小的業務，還是有其他策略可以使其成為一項利潤更高的業務？

Okay. Thank you, Sandeep. The webscale customers first, there are some undisclosed deals that we are working on to implement and ramp up at the moment. Hopefully, we would soon be able to publish who these guys are. So that one is ramping, and we continue to believe that switching for webscalers will be a key growth driver in our non-CSP growth, not only for NI, but for Nokia as a whole.

好的。謝謝你，桑迪普。首先是網路規模客戶，我們目前正在努力實施和擴大一些未公開的交易。希望我們很快就能公佈這些人是誰。因此，這一趨勢正在不斷增加，我們仍然相信，轉向網路縮放器將成為我們非 CSP 成長的關鍵成長動力，不僅對 NI 而言，而且對整個諾基亞而言也是如此。

Then when it comes to Mobile Networks in the U.S., absolutely, our target is to maximize our market position there in the mid- to long term, and we believe that our offering is strong. We have nothing to be ashamed of there.

然後，當談到美國的行動網路時，我們的目標絕對是在中長期最大化我們在美國的市場地位，並且我們相信我們的產品很強大。我們在那裡沒有什麼好感到羞恥的。

And of course, AT&T has confirmed that the reason for their decision was not the strength of our offering. So absolutely, we plan to fight back. And when it comes to Mobile Networks in North America, in general, of course, one thing is the big 3 operators, then there is Tier 2 and Tier 3 as well. But then, in addition to that, there is a growing private wireless business in North America that we are doing with several of our partners.

當然，AT&T 已經證實，他們做出決定的原因並不是我們產品的優勢。所以絕對，我們計劃反擊。當談到北美的行動網路時，當然，一般來說，一是三大營運商，然後還有第二級和第三級營運商。但除此之外，我們正在與幾個合作夥伴一起在北美開展日益增長的私人無線業務。

And then in addition to all of this, there is in the mid- to long term significant potential with the defense industry that is considering to start taking commercial technologies that 5G into the military applications, including tactical use.

除此之外，從中長期來看，國防工業還具有巨大的潛力，正在考慮開始將 5G 商業技術引入軍事應用，包括戰術用途。

So these are all important drivers for Mobile Networks in North America. Absolutely, we are not going to be happy and settle with the market position that we currently have there.

因此，這些都是北美行動網路的重要驅動力。當然，我們不會滿足於目前的市場地位。

Thank you, Sandeep. We'll take our next question from Jakob Bluestone from BNP Paribas Exane.

謝謝你，桑迪普。我們將回答法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Jakob Bluestone 提出的下一個問題。

I had a question and a quick follow-up after. Just on the Optical Network side, where you struck a more cautious tone, would just be interested in hearing what is behind that. And what is sort of the timeframe you're thinking about of recovery happening there?

我有一個問題並隨後進行了快速跟進。就在光網絡方面，您的語氣更加謹慎，只是有興趣了解背後的內容。您認為那裡的復甦需要多長時間？

Exact time frame is difficult to say. We commented that it seems to be happening a little bit slower than we thought earlier. At the same time, when we commented that the Fixed Network seems to be recovering a bit faster. So these two would, in a way, balance each other out.

確切的時間框架很難說。我們評論說，這似乎比我們之前想像的要慢。同時，當我們評論說固定網路似乎恢復得更快一些時。因此，這兩者在某種程度上會相互平衡。

We had book-to-bill in Optical Networks that was above 1 in Q1. So it is contributing to the increasing order backlog of NI. We also have especially tough comparables in Optical Networks compared to Q1 '23, when we -- especially in that business recovered from the supply chain bottlenecks. We had -- if you remember, we had 45% growth in Optical in Q1 last year. So that's the comparables that we are facing.

第一季光網路的訂單出貨量高於 1。因此，這導致了NI積壓的訂單不斷增加。與 23 年第一季相比，我們在光網路方面也有特別艱難的可比性，當時我們——尤其是該業務從供應鏈瓶頸中恢復過來。如果你還記得的話，去年第一季我們的光學業務成長了 45%。這就是我們面臨的可比較性。

On the product side, we are highly confident that we are in a good place. Our new PSC-6 and 6s platforms continue to pick up momentum. We have several new customers there doing trials. We are delivering best-in-class performance. We had -- you may have seen our recent announcement with SURF Net.

在產品方面，我們非常有信心我們處於有利位置。我們的新 PSC-6 和 6s 平台持續保持強勁勢頭。我們有幾個新客戶在那裡進行試驗。我們正在提供一流的性能。我們—您可能已經看到了我們最近與 SURF Net 的公告。

So again, highly confident on the product side. And clearly, everything we are seeing in AI and cloud compute will drive investments into data centers -- into data center fabric itself, which, of course, will benefit switching and then the data center interconnects, which will benefit the Optical.

再次強調，對產品方面充滿信心。顯然，我們在人工智慧和雲端運算中看到的一切都將推動對資料中心的投資——資料中心結構本身，這當然將有利於交換，然後是資料中心互連，這將有利於光纖。

And again, the big advantage that we have compared to, I would say, anyone else is that we have scale both in IP and Optical. So depending on -- regardless of how operators want to play this architectural game that what you are doing in the network on the optical layer and what you are doing on the IP layer, we will have an answer to their needs.

再說一次，我想說，與其他任何人相比，我們的一大優勢是我們在 IP 和光纖方面都具有規模。因此，無論運營商希望如何玩這個架構遊戲，無論您在網路的光層上做什麼，以及在IP層上做什麼，我們都會滿足他們的需求。

If I can just ask a quick follow-up. I think you made a comment earlier that you expected that Q1 was the low point for North American Mobile Networks revenues as well as India, just to make sure I got that right. So even with AT&T maybe falling out later in the year, you still expect sort of roughly EUR 400 million of Mobile Networks revenues in North America to be the low point for the year.

如果我能快速跟進一下就好了。我想您之前曾說過，您預計第一季是北美行動網路以及印度收入的最低點，只是為了確保我的說法是正確的。因此，即使 AT&T 可能會在今年稍後陷入困境，您仍然預計北美行動網路收入約 4 億歐元將是今年的最低點。

Yes, you are correct. That's what we said. And the AT&T situation has been taken into account in that statement.

是的，你是對的。這就是我們所說的。該聲明中也考慮了 AT&T 的情況。

Thanks, Jakob. We'll take our next question from Felix Henriksson from Nordea.

謝謝，雅各。我們將回答來自 Nordea 的 Felix Henriksson 的下一個問題。

I wanted to revisit the Mobile Networks revenue growth guidance of minus 15%, minus 10% for the year and see whether or not you sort of used the minus 4% market growth rates by Dell'Oro, which are primer PR called out as optimistic in driving this as a basis for market growth and sort of revisit what gives you confidence to call out the market bottom in the North America for Q1 given that you must be losing volumes from the AT&T customers.

我想重新審視今年的行動網路收入成長指引 - 15%、-10%，看看你是否使用了 Dell'Oro 的 -4% 市場成長率，這是初級公關中樂觀的說法以此作為市場成長的基礎，並重新審視是什麼讓你有信心在第一季北美市場觸底，因為你肯定會失去AT&T 客戶的銷售量。

Well, obviously, we are part of the same market with our Swedish friends who made that comment, and I have really nothing to add that comment. I mean, we are seeing the same thing. We do expect that the whole market will remain weak this year.

嗯，顯然，我們與發表該評論的瑞典朋友屬於同一市場，我真的沒有什麼可補充的。我的意思是，我們看到了同樣的事情。我們預計今年整個市場將保持疲軟。

There seems to be slightly different dynamics, especially when it comes to India. We had huge ramp-up in India in the first half of the year, which gives us extremely tough comparables, which will then help us quite a lot in the year-over-year comparison for the second half of the year.

動態似乎略有不同，尤其是在印度方面。今年上半年，我們在印度取得了巨大的成長，這為我們提供了極其艱難的可比性，這將對我們下半年的年比比較有很大幫助。

So that's why when we are combining that with the fact that we believe, and this we are seeing through our order backlog and the discussions with customers, that we believe that we saw the low point in deliveries now in Q1, both in North America and in India.

因此，這就是為什麼當我們將這一點與我們相信的事實結合起來時，我們透過我們的訂單積壓和與客戶的討論看到這一點，我們相信我們在第一季度看到了交付量的低點，無論是在北美還是在印度。

That then combined with the activities in the rest of the world, we are hopeful that, in our case, our MN top line would pick up for the rest of the year, the remaining quarters from the level in Q1. But that does not change the fact that the full year will be weak for the whole of Mobile Networks.

然後，結合世界其他地區的活動，我們希望，就我們而言，我們的明尼蘇達州營收將在今年剩餘時間內有所回升，即第一季剩餘季度的水平。但這並不能改變整個行動網路全年表現疲軟的事實。

And when you talk about our top line forecast compared to the Dell'Oro forecast, of course, what needs to be kept in mind there is, really, the India situation, where we have a very high market share in India. And when that market ramps up massively and then drops significantly back to kind of more normal levels in 1 year, obviously, that is then to be reflected on our top line also when you are comparing our top line development to whatever the global market development will be.

當你談論我們的營收預測與 Dell'Oro 的預測相比時，當然，需要牢記的是印度的情況，我們在印度擁有非常高的市場份額。顯然，當該市場大幅增長，然後在一年內大幅回落至更正常的水平時，當您將我們的營收發展與全球市場發展進行比較時，這也會反映在我們的營收上。

Do you have a quick follow-up, Felix?

菲利克斯，你有快速跟進嗎？

Yes. Just quickly. Do you still expect to see continued free cash flow support from a decrease in receivables related to India in the coming quarters? Or has this sort of net working capital profile related to India now normalized?

是的。快點吧。您是否仍預計未來幾季印度相關應收帳款的減少將持續提供自由現金流支援？或者與印度相關的這種淨營運資本狀況現在已經正常化了嗎？

Yes. We started to see the net working capital release already in the quarter 4, if you remember that, and continued now specifically in quarter 1 when it comes to accounts receivables. And then, of course, it always depends a little bit what is the geographical customer mix as well.

是的。如果您還記得的話，我們已經在第四季度開始看到淨營運資本釋放，並且在應收帳款方面，特別是在第一季繼續釋放。當然，這也總是取決於地理客戶組合。

But I believe that there is still potential in the working capital to improve. Exactly how -- what the timing is, and it depends also throughout the year, how the mix is between different geographies and regions, but also the timing of the revenues between different quarters because, of course, when you have a very heavy quarter 4, then, usually, that ties up accounts receivables towards the end of the year and payments come in quarter 1.

但我相信營運資金仍有改善的潛力。具體如何——時間安排是什麼，這也取決於全年、不同地區和地區之間的混合情況，以及不同季度之間收入的時間安排，因為當然，當你有一個非常繁忙的季度時 4那麼，通常情況下，這會在年底前綁定應收帳款，並在第一季付款。

But we are -- we started the year extremely well, and we believe that we are in a very solid track to that outlook that we have when it comes to free cash flow generation conversion between 30% to 60%. And remember also that quarter 2, we usually are impacted by the annual variable pay that always comes in quarter 2.

但我們今年的開局非常好，我們相信我們正處於非常堅實的軌道上，實現自由現金流產生轉換率在 30% 到 60% 之間的前景。還要記住，在第二季度，我們通常會受到第二季度年度可變薪酬的影響。

Thanks, Felix. We'll take our final question this morning from Emil Immonen from Carnegie.

謝謝，菲利克斯。今天早上我們將接受來自卡內基的埃米爾·伊莫寧（Emil Immonen）的最後一個問題。

I just wanted to understand the cost savings program. Was there something already visible from that in Q1? Or where -- when should we expect that to start to show in your results?

我只是想了解成本節約計劃。從第一季的情況中是否已經可以看到一些東西？或者我們應該期望什麼時候開始在您的結果中體現出來？

Yes. Thank you, Emil. Yes, we started actions immediately in October when we announced the cost saving program. And of course, usually, it takes some time, but we start to see already in quarter 1 impacts of the cost saving program.

是的。謝謝你，艾米爾。是的，當我們宣布成本節約計劃時，我們在 10 月就立即開始了行動。當然，通常這需要一些時間，但我們在第一季就開始看到成本節約計畫的影響。

And just give you some more facts behind this. So if you look number of employees in end of quarter 1 compared to end of quarter 4 last year, so we've been reducing number of employees, more than 2,000 people already in quarter 1.

並為您提供更多這背後的事實。因此，如果你看看第一季末與去年第四季末的員工人數，我們一直在減少員工人數，第一季已經減少了 2,000 多人。

So we are in a good, I would say, position to execute the expected cost savings for this year. It's totally annual savings of EUR 500 million, where EUR 400 million is coming from the new program.

因此，我想說，我們處於有利位置，可以實現今年預期的成本節約。每年總共節省 5 億歐元，其中 4 億歐元來自新計畫。

Do you have a quick follow-up, Emil?

埃米爾，你有快速跟進嗎？

Yes. Just on the MN side. So can you help me understand where is about the breakeven point in sales for your operating profit?

是的。就在明尼蘇達那邊。那麼您能幫我了解一下您的營業利潤的銷售損益兩平點在哪裡嗎？

We have been working with -- or Mobile Networks has been working on reducing their cost base, but also what comes to breakeven point. And with these actions that we have been taking and will take in the new cost saving program, the ambition level is that we will reach the breakeven point of top line of around EUR 8 billion by 2026.

我們一直在與——或行動網路公司合作，致力於降低他們的成本基礎，同時也致力於達到損益平衡點。透過我們在新的成本節約計畫中已經採取和將要採取的這些行動，我們的目標是到 2026 年達到約 80 億歐元的收支平衡點。

At the same time, we'll also lower the breakeven point -- or the point where we would reach double-digit operating margin, which used to be 11.5%. I now believe that it will be taken down to EUR 10 billion.

同時，我們還將降低損益平衡點——或者說我們將達到兩位數營運利潤率的點，以前為 11.5%。我現在相信它將減少到 100 億歐元。

Thank you, Emil, and thank you, everyone, for your questions today.

謝謝埃米爾，也謝謝大家今天提出的問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. I would like to remind you that during the call today, we have made a number of forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may, therefore, differ materially from the results currently expected.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我想提醒您，在今天的電話會議中，我們做了一些涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性聲明。因此，實際結果可能與目前預期的結果有重大差異。

Factors that could cause such differences can be both external as well as internal operating factors. We have identified such risks in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 20-F, which is available on our Investor Relations website. Thank you all for joining us.

可能導致這種差異的因素既可以是外部因素，也可以是內部營運因素。我們已在 20-F 表格年度報告的風險因素部分中識別出此類風險，該表格可在我們的投資者關係網站上取得。感謝大家加入我們。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。