諾基亞 (NOK) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

諾基亞召開了 2023 年第四季業績電話會議,公司執行長和財務長出席了會議。該簡報的重點是成長率和利潤率,第四季度的報告和簡報可在諾基亞網站上找到。

諾基亞第四季和 2023 年全年銷售額有所下降,但能夠保護獲利能力並產生自由現金流。該公司進行了策略和營運變革,包括將銷售團隊嵌入業務部門以及任命客戶客戶經理。

諾基亞預計 2024 年上半年將充滿挑戰,但支出環境將會有所改善。他們專注於降低成本和增加其業務部門的營運自主權。

諾基亞的成長潛力在於資料中心交換,他們最近從一家超大規模企業獲得了一份重要訂單。該公司預計今年上半年行動網路市場將依然嚴峻。

他們計劃增加股東分配,並有實現 10% 營業利潤率的長期目標。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Nokia's Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Call. I'm David Mulholland, Head of Nokia Investor Relations. And today with me is Pekka Lundmark, our President and CEO; along with Marco Wiren, our CFO. Before we get started, a quick disclaimer. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding our future business and financial performance and these statements are predictions that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may therefore differ materially from the results we currently expect. Factors that could cause such differences can be both external as well as internal operating factors. We have identified such risks in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 20-F, which is available on our Investor Relations website.

    早安,女士們,先生們。歡迎參加諾基亞 2023 年第四季業績電話會議。我是諾基亞投資者關係主管大衛‧穆赫蘭。今天和我在一起的是我們的總裁兼執行長佩卡·倫德馬克 (Pekka Lundmark);以及我們的財務長 Marco Wiren。在我們開始之前,先簡單聲明一下。在本次電話會議中,我們將就我們未來的業務和財務表現做出前瞻性聲明,這些聲明是涉及風險和不確定性的預測。因此,實際結果可能與我們目前預期的結果有重大差異。可能導致這種差異的因素既可以是外部因素,也可以是內部營運因素。我們已在 20-F 表格年度報告的風險因素部分中識別出此類風險,該表格可在我們的投資者關係網站上取得。

  • Within today's presentation, references to growth rates will mostly be on a constant currency growth rate basis. And where we refer to margins, it will be based on our comparable reporting. Please note that our Q4 report and a presentation that accompanies this call are published on our website. The report includes both reported and comparable financial results and a reconciliation between the 2.

    在今天的演示中,對成長率的提及主要是在恆定貨幣成長率的基礎上。當我們提到利潤率時,它將基於我們的可比較報告。請注意,我們的第四季報告和本次電話會議附帶的簡報已發佈在我們的網站上。該報告包括報告的和可比較的財務結果以及兩者之間的調節表。

  • With that complete, in terms of the agenda for today, Pekka will give an overview on the quarter and then Marco will give into a bit more detail on some of the key factors impacting our financial performance before Pekka gives a brief conclusion and we move to Q&A.

    完成後,就今天的議程而言,Pekka 將概述本季度,然後 Marco 將更詳細地介紹影響我們財務業績的一些關鍵因素,然後 Pekka 給出簡短的結論,我們繼續問答。

  • With that, let me hand over to Pekka.

    那麼,就讓我把任務交給佩卡吧。

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • Thank you, David, and thank you to everyone for joining us today. So let me start with an update of some of the strategic and operational changes we announced with our Q3 results in October. We are evolving our operational model to give our business groups increased autonomy and have now embedded our sales teams into the business groups. This announcement has been well received by our customers. We have hit the ground running in 2024. The move to embed sales teams into the business groups happened at the start of the year. We have appointed customer account executives and the country manager role has also been reinforced. The customer account executives are there to ensure that we still offer 1 point of contact and person responsible for overall relationship management with customers without detracting from the accountability of the business groups.

    謝謝大衛,也謝謝大家今天加入我們。首先,讓我介紹一下我們在 10 月第三季業績中宣布的一些策略和營運變化的最新情況。我們正在改進我們的營運模式,以賦予我們的業務部門更大的自主權,並且現在已將我們的銷售團隊嵌入到業務部門中。此公告得到了我們客戶的好評。我們已於 2024 年開始營運。將銷售團隊嵌入業務部門的舉措發生在年初。我們任命了客戶客戶經理,並加強了國家經理的角色。客戶客戶主管的職責是確保我們仍提供 1 位聯絡人和負責與客戶的整體關係管理的人員,而不會減損業務團隊的責任。

  • Some corporate functions have also moved to the business groups as we move to a leaner corporate center. During first half of 2024, we will begin reporting business group regional sales and cash flow metrics to further enhance transparency. And we already commenced the process of resetting our cost base during 2023. We expect this program will generate EUR 400 million of gross savings during 2024.

    隨著我們轉向更精簡的企業中心,一些企業職能也轉移到了業務部門。 2024 年上半年,我們將開始報告業務集團區域銷售和現金流量指標,以進一步提高透明度。我們已經開始在 2023 年期間重置成本基礎。我們預計該計劃將在 2024 年期間節省 4 億歐元的總成本。

  • If we then turn to Q4 and 2023 full year we, of course, saw a meaningful shift in customer behavior impacting our industry. This was driven by macroeconomic environment and high interest rates along with customer inventory digestion especially in North America. This led to our fourth quarter sales declined by 21% and full year sales declined by 8% in constant currency. Proactive action across our organization meant we were able to protect our profitability while continuing to invest in R&D, and we delivered a comparable operating margin of 14.8% in Q4 and 10.7% for the full year. This was a resilient performance considering the challenging environment and lower contribution from our high-margin patent licensing business as some renewals remained outstanding.

    如果我們轉向第四季度和 2023 年全年,我們當然會看到客戶行為發生了有意義的轉變,對我們的行業產生了影響。這是由宏觀經濟環境和高利率以及客戶庫存消化(尤其是在北美)推動的。這導致我們第四季銷售額下降 21%,以固定匯率計算全年銷售額下降 8%。我們整個組織的積極行動意味著我們能夠在繼續投資研發的同時保護我們的獲利能力,我們第四季的可比營業利潤率為 14.8%,全年營業利潤率為 10.7%。考慮到充滿挑戰的環境以及由於一些續展仍未完成而導致我們的高利潤專利許可業務的貢獻較低,這是一個有彈性的業績。

  • We were pleased with our cash performance in the quarter where we generated EUR 1.7 billion of free cash flow, and we ended the year with a net cash balance of EUR 4.3 billion. Positively, we also ended the year with improving order intake. Our fourth quarter book-to-bill was above 1, particularly supported by our network infrastructure business, indicating at least some improvement in the overall spending environment.

    我們對本季的現金表現感到滿意,產生了 17 億歐元的自由現金流,年末淨現金餘額為 43 億歐元。積極的一面是,我們年底的訂單量也有所增加。我們第四季的訂單出貨比高於 1,特別是在我們的網路基礎設施業務的支持下,這表明整體支出環境至少有所改善。

  • Moving on to network infrastructure. Sales declined by 24% in constant currency versus the year-ago quarter, which had been particularly strong. For the full year, sales declined by 9% mainly driven by IP and Fixed Networks. Optical networks grew by 5% and ASN declined slightly. There was a favorable development in gross margin, which impacted by -- improved by 60 basis points versus the year ago quarter and by 130 basis points for the full year, and this was driven by positive product mix.

    轉向網路基礎設施。以固定匯率計算,銷售額比去年同期特別強勁的季度下降了 24%。全年銷售額下降 9%,主要由 IP 和固定網路推動。光網路成長5%,ASN小幅下降。毛利率取得了良好的發展,這受到積極的產品組合的推動,與去年同期相比提高了 60 個基點,全年提高了 130 個基點。

  • Operating margin in the quarter decreased to 13.9% due to the impact of lower sales. For the year, our (technical difficulty) ended up at 13.1%, which was comfortably within the range we had shared at the beginning of the year and above the targets we had set for ourselves back in 2021. As you remember, we had Capital Markets Day back then where we set the targets for each of the business in 2023.

    由於銷售額下降的影響,本季營業利潤率下降至 13.9%。今年,我們的(技術難度)最終達到 13.1%,這完全在我們年初共享的範圍內,並且高於我們在 2021 年為自己設定的目標。如您所知,我們有資本當時的市場日,我們為每項業務設定了2023 年的目標。

  • Also, if I can give you a quick update on the profitability of each of the units within NI for the full year in 2023, IP Networks saw its profitability declined slightly due to the weaker sales coverage, but remains mid- to high teens operating margin. Optical networks improved strongly benefiting from the sales growth to deliver a high single-digit operating margin. For fixed networks, despite the sales decline, product mix was beneficial and delivered high teens operating margin. And finally, submarine networks remained low single digit, but did improve slightly year-over-year.

    此外,如果我可以向您提供 NI 內每個部門 2023 年全年盈利能力的快速更新信息,IP Networks 的盈利能力因銷售覆蓋範圍較弱而略有下降,但營業利潤率仍保持在中高位。 。光網路受益於銷售成長而強勁改善,實現了高個位數的營業利潤。對於固定網路來說,儘管銷售額下降,但產品組合是有益的,並實現了十幾歲的高營業利潤率。最後,海底網路仍然處於低個位數水平,但同比確實略有改善。

  • Mobile Networks Q4 saw the continued impact of normalization of India rollout and the dual impact of inventory digestion and macroeconomic pressure on spending in North America. We were, however, pleased to see a robust gross margin performance supported by favorable regional and product mix in Q4. Similarly, operating margin for the quarter was 11.5%, an improvement of 470 basis points versus the year ago quarter, driven by gross margin and lower variable pay accruals.

    行動網路第四季受到印度部署正常化的持續影響以及庫存消化和宏觀經濟壓力對北美支出的雙重影響。然而,我們很高興看到第四季有利的區域和產品組合支撐了強勁的毛利率表現。同樣,在毛利率和可變薪酬應計項目降低的推動下,本季營業利潤率為 11.5%,比去年同期提高了 470 個基點。

  • For the full year, in spite of top line challenges, operating margin was 7.4%, which was within our stated planning assumption for the year and at the higher end of our targets we set back in 2021.

    全年來看,儘管面臨收入挑戰,營業利潤率為 7.4%,這在我們既定的今年規劃假設之內,也處於我們在 2021 年設定的目標的較高端。

  • Finally, on Mobile Networks, AT&T's recent announcement to move to a largely single-source radio network was, of course, a disappointing development. As we said at our investor event in December, and as confirmed by AT&T, this does not reflect the technological competitiveness that we have achieved with our products. This has been evidenced by our significant increase in RAN market share in recent years. I firmly believe Mobile Networks has the right strategy in place to create value for our shareholders in the future with opportunities to gain share, diversify our business and achieve a double-digit operating margin longer term.

    最後,在行動網路方面,AT&T 最近宣布轉向主要採用單一來源的無線電網絡,這當然是一個令人失望的進展。正如我們在 12 月的投資者活動中所說,並經 AT&T 證實,這並不反映我們透過產品實現的技術競爭力。近年來我們 RAN 市場佔有率的大幅成長就證明了這一點。我堅信,Mobile Networks 制定了正確的策略,能夠在未來為我們的股東創造價值,並有機會獲得份額、實現業務多元化並實現長期兩位數的營業利潤率。

  • CNS sales declined in Q4 by 5%, driven by declines in all businesses with the exception of business applications, which grew. Gross margin improved, and this flowed through to operating margin and the full year improved from 5.3% to 7.9%. The 7.9% operating margin, we delivered is at the higher end of what we targeted at the start of the year. It is slightly below the lower end of what we had set as target back in 2021. This is due to the increased investments we decided to make in private wireless, which has been consistently delivering double-digit growth.

    CNS 銷售額在第四季度下降了 5%,這是由於除業務應用程式以外的所有業務均出現下降所致,但業務應用程式有所增長。毛利率有所改善,並轉化為營業利潤率,全年從 5.3% 提高至 7.9%。我們實現的 7.9% 營業利潤率高於年初目標。它略低於我們在 2021 年設定的目標的下限。這是由於我們決定增加對私有無線的投資,該領域一直持續實現兩位數的成長。

  • 2023, did see us making progress in our portfolio rebalancing efforts with the divestment of VitalQIP, the announced sale of our device management and service management platforms businesses in December and the partnership we announced with Red Hat on cloud infrastructure. We also led to the industry trend towards programmable networks with the launch of our network as Code platform, which now has 9 commercial agreements.

    2023 年,我們確實在投資組合再平衡方面取得了進展,剝離了 VitalQIP、12 月宣佈出售我們的設備管理和服務管理平台業務,以及宣布與紅帽在雲端基礎設施方面建立合作夥伴關係。我們還推出了網路即代碼平台,引領了可編程網路的行業趨勢,該平台現已擁有 9 項商業協議。

  • Nokia Technologies net sales decreased 63% on both the reported and constant currency basis in the fourth quarter as the year-ago quarter had a EUR 305 million one-off noncash benefit we explained at the time. Excluding this, the year-on-year net sales performance primarily reflected lower net sales from a license that expired at the end of the third quarter 2023. The financial performance in '23 was, of course, not what we had hoped for as some deals took longer to renew than we had expected. There were still some very important achievements.

    諾基亞科技公司第四季的淨銷售額按報告和固定匯率計算均下降了 63%,因為我們當時解釋說,去年同期的一次性非現金收益為 3.05 億歐元。排除這一點,年比淨銷售額表現主要反映了 2023 年第三季末到期的許可證帶來的淨銷售額下降。當然,23 年的財務業績並不是我們所希望的,因為一些公司交易的更新時間比我們預期的要長。還有一些非常重要的成就。

  • We signed long-term renewals with both Apple and Samsung, along with signing a new agreement with Honor. Positively, as we, of course, announced yesterday, we have now achieved a renewal with Oppo. And we are very close to concluding another agreement in China. With these agreements, we are now in the final stages of our smartphone license renewal cycle with only the recently expired major agreement outstanding. This provides long-term stability to our Nokia Technologies business, which can now increasingly focus on growing our licensing run rate in the new growth areas, including automotive, consumer electronics, IoT and multimedia. I remain confident that with growth in these areas, we can return to an annual net sales run rate of EUR 1.4 billion to EUR 1.5 billion in Nokia Technologies in the midterm.

    我們與蘋果和三星都簽署了長期續約協議,並與榮耀簽署了新協議。當然,正如我們昨天宣布的那樣,我們現在已經與 Oppo 實現了續約。我們非常接近在中國達成另一項協議。透過這些協議,我們現在正處於智慧型手機許可證更新周期的最後階段,只有最近到期的主要協議尚未完成。這為我們的諾基亞技術業務提供了長期穩定性,該業務現在可以越來越專注於提高新成長領域的授權運行率,包括汽車、消費性電子產品、物聯網和多媒體。我仍然相信,隨著這些領域的成長,諾基亞科技公司可以在中期恢復到 14 億歐元至 15 億歐元的年淨銷售額。

  • Enterprise net sales decreased 3% in constant currency in Q4 in comparison to a very strong year ago quarter. However, for the full year, we grew 16%, which shows strong continued momentum. Overall, customer engagement also remains strong as we added 151 new enterprise customers in the quarter. Private wireless continued to show strong growth in 2023 and now has more than 710 customers. You can also see on the right-hand side of this slide, a breakdown of the EUR 2.3 billion of enterprise sales we had in 2023.

    與去年同期非常強勁的季度相比,以固定匯率計算,第四季企業淨銷售額下降了 3%。然而,全年增長了 16%,顯示出強勁的持續勢頭。整體而言,客戶參與度也依然強勁,本季我們新增了 151 家企業客戶。專用無線在 2023 年持續呈現強勁成長,目前擁有超過 710 個客戶。您也可以在這張投影片的右邊看到 2023 年 23 億歐元企業銷售額的明細。

  • We wanted to give a bit more color around the components of our enterprise business. Almost half of our enterprise sales come from areas where we sell our NI products into targeted enterprise verticals, particularly those that value mission-critical networks. Private wireless is now just over 1/4 of our enterprise sales having grown strongly for several years and then webscale is an increasingly important opportunity for us as well.

    我們希望為我們的企業業務的組成部分提供更多的色彩。我們近一半的企業銷售額來自我們向目標企業垂直市場銷售 NI 產品的領域,特別是那些重視任務關鍵型網路的企業。專用無線現在僅占我們企業銷售額的 1/4 多一點,多年來一直強勁增長,然後網路規模對我們來說也是一個越來越重要的機會。

  • Now I will hand over to Marco to go through the financials in more detail.

    現在我將讓 Marco 更詳細地了解財務狀況。

  • Marco Wiren - CFO

    Marco Wiren - CFO

  • Thank you, Pekka, and good morning, good afternoon from my side as well. And let's start by looking at the regional performance of the businesses. And in quarter 4, all regions declined and we saw growth in Middle East and Africa. Most notably, North America declined once again and reflected the inventory digestion and macro uncertainty, which has been dominating most of the year. India declined by 30% and this was related to the 5G deployments that continue to normalize. And in Europe, we saw a meaningful decline in the quarter and some of which was driven by Nokia Technologies, which is entirely reported in the Europe numbers. Otherwise, the decline was mainly driven by Mobile Networks and Network Infrastructure.

    謝謝你,佩卡,我這邊也早安,下午好。讓我們先來看看這些企業的區域績效。第四季度,所有地區均出現下降,中東和非洲出現成長。最值得注意的是,北美地區再次下跌,反映出庫存消化和宏觀不確定性,這一點在今年大部分時間裡一直佔據主導地位。印度下降了30%,這與5G部署持續正常化有關。在歐洲,我們看到本季出現顯著下降,其中一些是由諾基亞技術公司推動的,這完全在歐洲數據中報告。除此之外,下降主要是由行動網路和網路基礎設施推動的。

  • And then looking at the operating profit in the quarter, Pekka explained a number of these drivers already, but a few things that I want to point out. And first point is through common contribution, which was better than a year ago quarter, and this was driven by venture fund where the performance improved. In Mobile Networks and Cloud and Network Services, they improved somewhat year-on-year. And then, however, the majority of the decline was driven by Nokia Technologies with a year ago quarter benefited from the EUR 305 million one-off that Pekka mentioned.

    然後看看本季的營業利潤,佩卡已經解釋了其中的一些驅動因素,但我想指出一些事情。第一點是透過共同貢獻,這比去年同期要好,這是由業績改善的風險基金推動的。在行動網路和雲端及網路服務方面,年比有所改善。然而,大部分下降是由諾基亞技術公司推動的,去年同期受益於佩卡提到的 3.05 億歐元一次性收入。

  • And then moving to our cash position in quarter 4. We had a strong quarter and ended the year with EUR 4.3 billion of net cash, an increase of EUR 1.3 billion compared to quarter 3. And this is mainly reflected strong quarter 4 profits and a significant inflow of cash related to net working capital. And this was due to both lower inventories as well as receivables, which benefited from a partial prepayment of licensing agreement that was made in '23.

    然後轉向我們第四季度的現金狀況。我們的季度表現強勁,年底淨現金為 43 億歐元,比第三季度增加了 13 億歐元。這主要反映了第四季度強勁的利潤和與淨營運資本相關的大量現金流入。這是由於庫存和應收帳款的減少,這得益於 23 年簽訂的許可協議的部分預付款。

  • And during quarter 4, we returned over EUR 200 million to shareholders through dividends and the completion of the second tranche of our 2-year EUR 600 million share buyback program. In the full year '23 returned over EUR 900 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. Free cash flow for the full year was just over EUR 800 million and this is 34% conversion compared to operating profit, and this was in line with our guidance of 20% to 50% for the year.

    在第四季度,我們透過股利和完成為期 2 年的 6 億歐元股票回購計畫的第二部分,向股東返還了超過 2 億歐元。 '23全年透過股利和股票回購向股東返還超過9億歐元。全年自由現金流略高於 8 億歐元,與營業利潤相比,轉換率為 34%,這符合我們今年 20% 至 50% 的指導。

  • Then turning to our '24 cash flow outlook. We try to provide a view here on the moving parts in the 30% to 60% free cash flow conversion from comparable operating profit that we have guided for. We do expect to see a positive impact from our operational and net working capital in '24 as we continue to see some reduction from the buildup we saw during the past 2 years. And then we expect cash taxes to be about EUR 500 million in '24. And then we assume also cash flow related to restructuring of about EUR 550 million. Although I would like to note that we also target to achieve the EUR 500 million in-year cost savings in '24. And this related both the program we just launched, but also the final savings of our prior '21 program.

    然後轉向我們 24 年的現金流前景。我們試圖在這裡提供一個關於我們指導的可比營業利潤 30% 至 60% 自由現金流轉換中的活動部分的觀點。我們確實預計 24 年我們的營運和淨營運資本將產生正面影響,因為我們繼續看到過去兩年的累積減少。我們預計 2024 年現金稅約為 5 億歐元。然後我們假設與重組相關的現金流量約為 5.5 億歐元。不過我想指出的是,我們的目標是在 2024 年達到 5 億歐元的年內成本節約。這既與我們剛剛啟動的計劃有關,也與我們先前的 '21 計劃的最終節省有關。

  • And then finally, Nokia Technologies, we expect cash generation to be approximately EUR 700 million below operating profit, and this is due to prepayments that we received in '23. From '25 and onwards, we expect greater alignment between Nokia Technologies cash generation and operating profit. So taking these into consideration, we should land into the 30% to 60% conversion rate.

    最後,諾基亞科技公司,我們預計現金產生量將比營業利潤低約 7 億歐元,這是由於我們在 23 年收到的預付款。從 25 年起,我們預期諾基亞科技公司的現金產生和營業利潤之間將更加一致。所以考慮到這些,我們應該把轉換率控制在30%到60%之間。

  • Then as you look out to '26, you can see that we are well on track to reach our target of 55% to 85% conversion, especially as Nokia Technologies cash generation starts to align more with its operating profit.

    然後,當您展望 26 年時,您會發現我們正在順利實現 55% 至 85% 轉換率的目標,特別是當諾基亞技術公司的現金產生開始與其營業利潤更加一致時。

  • And then at the end of '23, our net cash represented about 19% of our net sales, which is above the target of 10% to 15% that we laid out in the beginning of the year. And given this strong cash position, the Board of Directors will propose an increase in our dividend to EUR 0.13 per share. And the Board is also proposing to initiate a new buyback program of EUR 600 million over 2 years. And given the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and industry challenges, we feel it is prudent to take a measured approach to getting to the 10% to 15% net cash target.

    到 23 年底,我們的淨現金約佔淨銷售額的 19%,高於我們年初制定的 10% 至 15% 的目標。鑑於現金狀況強勁,董事會將建議將股息增加至每股 0.13 歐元。董事會還提議在兩年內啟動一項 6 億歐元的新回購計畫。鑑於持續的宏觀經濟不確定性和產業挑戰,我們認為採取審慎的方法來實現 10% 至 15% 的淨現金目標是謹慎的。

  • And if we now look at the '24, you can see in the presentation on the release, the planning assumptions we have for our business groups in 2024. And as you can see, these are well aligned with the commentary we provided back in December. I will not go into detail on each number, but you will note that we provide net sales assumption by business group instead of the targeted addressable market assumptions we have provided in the past, which we hope gives greater transparency as well.

    如果我們現在看看 '24,您可以在發布的簡報中看到我們對 2024 年業務部門的規劃假設。正如您所看到的,這些與我們在 12 月提供的評論非常一致。我不會詳細介紹每個數字,但您會注意到,我們提供了按業務部門劃分的淨銷售額假設,而不是我們過去提供的目標可尋址市場假設,我們希望這也能提供更大的透明度。

  • And piecing all of these assumptions together, you can understand our full year outlook for '24. We are now guiding for comparable operating profit between EUR 2.3 billion and EUR 2.9 billion, which takes into consideration all of the BG assumptions. We also expect the free cash flow conversion between 30% and 60% for the reasons I talked through earlier. And one further planning assumption we have provided that I would like to highlight is around the seasonality we expect in '24. We expect Q1 net sales in our network businesses to show a largely normal seasonal decline sequencing.

    將所有這些假設拼湊在一起,您就可以了解我們對 24 年的全年展望。我們目前指導可比營業利潤在 23 億歐元至 29 億歐元之間,其中考慮了所有 BG 假設。基於我之前談到的原因,我們也預期自由現金流轉換將在 30% 到 60% 之間。我想強調的是,我們提供的另一個規劃假設是我們預期 24 年的季節性。我們預期網路業務第一季的淨銷售額將基本呈現正常的季節性下降順序。

  • And since 2016, the average Q1 sequential decline in sales has been 23%. And we expect significant seasonality in profit generation in '24 with low sales coverage to weigh it on operating profit in quarter 1, especially in MN and CNS. And then the company expect progressive improvement in these businesses throughout the year.

    自 2016 年以來,第一季銷售額平均較上季下降了 23%。我們預計 24 年利潤產生的季節性因素和較低的銷售覆蓋率將影響第一季的營業利潤,特別是在明尼蘇達州和中樞神經系統。然後公司預計這些業務將全年逐步改善。

  • I also want to draw your attention to some changes that we will be making to disclosures and accounting for 2024. These changes are being made to enhance transparency and further support understanding of financials of our business groups. First, by quarter 2 at the latest, we start disclosing regional sales and cash flow metrics by business growth, which help provide a more complete picture of the individual parts of the business. And the second is that we will change the way of account for the impact of our venture funds. Historically, they have been recorded in other operating income and expense and therefore, included in our operating profit. But going forward, we will now report this in financial income and expenses, and we believe that this makes sense, given the volatility of these valuations in recent years.

    我還想提請您注意我們將對 2024 年的揭露和會計進行的一些更改。這些更改是為了提高透明度並進一步支持對我們業務集團財務狀況的了解。首先,最遲到第二季度,我們開始按業務成長揭露區域銷售和現金流量指標,這有助於更全面地了解業務的各個部分。第二是我們將改變創投基金影響的會計方式。從歷史上看,它們已記錄在其他營業收入和支出中,因此包含在我們的營業利潤中。但展望未來,我們現在將在財務收入和支出中報告這一點,考慮到近年來這些估值的波動,我們認為這是有道理的。

  • And with that, back to you, Pekka, for some final thoughts before Q&A.

    說到這裡,回到你,佩卡,在問答之前一些最後的想法。

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • Thanks, Marco. And just very quickly, before we turn to Q&A, let me conclude with a couple of remarks. First of all, as already discussed, we faced a highly challenging environment in '23, but considering the 8% decline in net sales, I believe we delivered a resilient financial performance. Our business group did a good job maintaining profitability and still delivering on operating margin targets as we set at the start of the year. We also delivered a solid cash performance in line with the guidance we gave at the start of the year. This is enabling the Board to propose an increase in our shareholder distributions for the coming year.

    謝謝,馬可。在我們開始問答之前,讓我以幾句話作為結束語。首先,正如已經討論過的,我們在 23 年面臨著極具挑戰性的環境,但考慮到淨銷售額下降 8%,我相信我們的財務表現具有彈性。我們的業務部門在維持獲利能力方面做得很好,並且仍然實現了我們年初設定的營業利潤率目標。我們也實現了穩健的現金業績,符合我們年初給予的指導。這使得董事會能夠提議增加來年的股東分配。

  • Secondly, we are moving quickly on our cost reduction program. And more importantly, we continue to take steps to increase the operational autonomy of our business groups. We want to make sure they are empowered to take the right decisions to create shareholder value into the future.

    其次,我們正在快速推進成本削減計劃。更重要的是,我們繼續採取措施增加業務部門的營運自主權。我們希望確保他們有權做出正確的決定,為未來創造股東價值。

  • And finally, while the environment will remain challenging in the first half of 2024, the strong order intake we saw in Q4, points to some improvement in the spending environment, especially for Network Infrastructure. Also, we are now in the final stages of our smartphone license renewal cycle in Nokia Technologies. This will lead to greater stability in Nokia Technologies going forward and will allow the business to focus more on its growth areas.

    最後,雖然 2024 年上半年的環境仍將充滿挑戰,但我們在第四季度看到的強勁訂單量表明支出環境有所改善,尤其是網路基礎設施方面。此外,我們現在正處於諾基亞技術智慧型手機授權更新周期的最後階段。這將使諾基亞技術公司未來更加穩定,並使公司能夠更加專注於其成長領域。

  • With that, I will hand back to David for the Q&A.

    接下來,我會把問答環節交回給大衛。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Pekka and Marco, for the presentations. (Operator Instructions) Alice, with that, could you please give me instructions?

    謝謝 Pekka 和 Marco 的演講。 (操作員指示)Alice,請問您能給我指示嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) I will now hand the call back to Mr. David Mulholland.

    (接線員指示)我現在將電話轉回給 David Mulholland 先生。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • Thanks, Alice. We'll take our first question from Jakob Bluestone from BNP Paribas Exane.

    謝謝,愛麗絲。我們將回答法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Jakob Bluestone 提出的第一個問題。

  • Jakob Bluestone - Research Analyst

    Jakob Bluestone - Research Analyst

  • I was hoping you could maybe expand a little bit on the green shoots commentary. Specifically, what do you think is driving the sort of improvement coming through? And maybe if you could just comment a little bit whether you're seeing any green shoots in Mobile Networks or if it's just on the Network Infrastructure side?

    我希望你能對新芽評論進行一些擴展。具體來說,您認為是什麼推動了這種改進?也許您可以評論一下您是否看到了行動網路的任何萌芽,或者是否只是在網路基礎設施方面?

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • Yes. Thank you. The comment on green shoots was clearly more on the NI side. And of course, the good thing now is that, as you know, we have the 4 businesses in NI, we had strong order intake in Q4 in all 4 business divisions of NI. In IP Networks, it's driven by tailwinds in webscale and enterprise contracts. In Fixed Networks it's driven by government funding, which starts to benefit the market already now in order intake.

    是的。謝謝。對於新芽的評論顯然更多地站在NI方面。當然,現在的好處是,如您所知,我們在 NI 擁有 4 個業務部門,在第四季度,我們在 NI 的所有 4 個業務部門都有強勁的訂單量。在 IP 網路中,它是由網路規模和企業合約的推動力推動的。在固定網路領域,它是由政府資金推動的,政府資金現在已經開始使市場在訂單接收方面受益。

  • But because of the delivery cycle, then in terms of sales and top line, mostly in the second half of 2024. In Optical Networks, it's simply share gains because of our strong product momentum and the excellent feed that we are receiving from customers to our recent product announcements. And in Submarine Networks, we already had a strong order book in the beginning of the quarter, but we had great order intake in Q4 as well, and that combination is now going to be driving the outlook for that business going forward.

    但由於交付週期的原因,就銷售和營收而言,主要是在 2024 年下半年。在光網絡領域,由於我們強勁的產品動力以及我們從客戶那裡收到的出色反饋,這只是份額收益。最近的產品公告。在海底網路方面,我們在本季初就已經擁有了強勁的訂單,但我們在第四季度的訂單量也很大,這種結合現在將推動該業務的前景。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • Do you have a follow-up, Jakob?

    雅各布,你有後續嗎?

  • Jakob Bluestone - Research Analyst

    Jakob Bluestone - Research Analyst

  • Maybe just on the Mobile Networks. What are you sort of seeing there? It sounds like it's still pretty tough?

    也許只是在行動網路上。你在那裡看到了什麼?聽起來好像還蠻難的?

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • Yes. The -- I mean, the market will remain tough at least for the first half of the year. When you look at the Mobile Networks sales guidance for this year. There, of course, you need to remember that the significant part of that is driven by India. Our group sales in India were -- in 2022, they were EUR 1.3 billion and last year, EUR 2.8 billion. And now we are expecting that '24 on group level would be somewhere between EUR 1.5 billion to EUR 2 billion. And most of that decline that we will see in India this year will be in Mobile Networks. So that already when you do the math, you can see that, that explains a significant part of the drop.

    是的。我的意思是,至少在今年上半年,市場仍將保持艱難。當您查看今年的行動網路銷售指南。當然,你需要記住,其中很大一部分是由印度推動的。 2022 年,我們在印度的集團銷售額為 13 億歐元,去年為 28 億歐元。現在我們預計 '24 集團層面的收入將在 15 億歐元到 20 億歐元之間。今年我們在印度看到的下降大部分將出現在行動網路領域。因此,當您進行數學計算時,您就可以看到這一點,這解釋了下降的很大一部分。

  • But overall, I mean, we are still expecting or waiting for mobile operators throughout the world to start investing because investments have been very low. '23 was a tough year for the whole market, of course, most pronounced in North America. Fact still remains that only about 25% of base stations outside of China are 5G mid band. And a small majority of all core networks have been upgraded to 5G advanced. And those investments will need to come because without that operators will not be able to monetize 5G properly. Right now, interest rates are still high. Many operators have high leverage. The good thing would be that if interest rates would come down, data traffic will continue to grow 20% to 30% per year. So gradually, that will also start to force operators to again invest. But the reality is that nobody knows when that will come. I'm absolutely convinced that it will come, but we are not yet seeing concrete signs of it happening.

    但總的來說,我的意思是,我們仍在期待或等待世界各地的行動營運商開始投資,因為投資非常低。 23 年對整個市場來說是艱難的一年,當然,在北美最為明顯。事實仍然是,中國境外只有約 25% 的基地台是 5G 中頻段。所有核心網路中的一小部分已升級至 5G 高級版。這些投資是必須的,因為如果沒有這些投資,營運商將無法正確地透過 5G 貨幣化。目前,利率仍然很高。許多營運商的槓桿率很高。好處是,如果利率下降,數據流量將繼續每年增長 20% 至 30%。逐漸地,這也將開始迫使營運商再次投資。但現實是,沒有人知道那會什麼時候到來。我絕對相信它會到來,但我們還沒有看到它發生的具體跡象。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Jakob. We'll take our next question from Simon Leopold from Raymond James.

    謝謝你,雅各。我們將回答雷蒙德·詹姆斯的西蒙·利奧波德提出的下一個問題。

  • Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

    Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

  • Great. I wanted to see if you could help us in terms of how the AT&T transition with the ORAN project, is affecting your revenue assumptions? And what I'm sort of trying to tease out here is there is sort of a step-down rapid decline? Or is there maybe a long tail of spending before a slowdown? I just like a little bit of color about how we should think about that revenue impact in 2024?

    偉大的。我想了解您是否可以幫助我們了解 AT&T 與 ORAN 專案的過渡如何影響您的收入假設?我想在這裡弄清楚的是,是否存在某種逐步下降的快速下降?或者在經濟放緩之前是否可能存在長尾支出?我只是想談談我們應該如何看待 2024 年收入影響?

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • Okay. So just as a reminder, we said that AT&T represented last year 5% to 8% of sales in Mobile Network. So that is important to keep in mind that '23 number was significantly -- in terms of euros or dollars was significantly lower than in '21 or '22. So we had already seen a significant decline in AT&T volumes because of their lower investments. Now we have an existing contract with a 5-year contract with AT&T that was published in the beginning of '21.

    好的。提醒一下,我們說過 AT&T 去年佔行動網路銷售額的 5% 到 8%。因此,重要的是要記住,以歐元或美元計算,「23」的數字顯著低於「21」或「22」。因此,我們已經看到 AT&T 由於投資減少而導致銷量大幅下降。現在我們與 AT&T 簽訂了一份為期 5 年的合同,該合約於 21 年初發布。

  • Negotiations are still ongoing with respect to how we execute on this contract and before we have concluded those negotiations, it is hard to give a clear answer as to the -- how the trajectory of the decline will look like. But clearly, we do expect our sales to AT&T to drop this year. We have to remember, though, that when we, first of all, look at Mobile Networks, irrespective of this contract, we will continue to supply microwave radios and femto products to AT&T. And then outside of mobile networks, we obviously continue to remain a key supplier in both Network Infrastructure and CNS. And those 2 businesses do not have anything to do with the radio network decision that AT&T made.

    關於我們如何執行這份合約的談判仍在進行中,在我們完成這些談判之前,很難就下降的軌跡將是什麼樣子給出明確的答案。但顯然,我們確實預計今年對 AT&T 的銷售額將會下降。不過,我們必須記住,當我們首先考慮行動網路時,無論這份合約如何,我們都將繼續向 AT&T 提供微波無線電和 femto 產品。然後,在行動網路之外,我們顯然仍然是網路基礎設施和 CNS 領域的主要供應商。這兩項業務與 AT&T 所做的無線電網路決策沒有任何關係。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • Do you have a follow-up, Simon?

    西蒙,你有後續行動嗎?

  • Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

    Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

  • Yes. And as a follow-up, the forecasting this quarter in terms of the planning, we don't have a revenue outlook, but there is the operating income outlook and I imagine that, that is what's really important to folks. But I assume there is an underlying revenue assumption, you would have given it to us, I imagine if you wanted to, and you've chosen not to. So maybe help us understand sort of the thinking and the puts and takes on what assumptions you've made for full year '24 revenue and the choice to guide the way you have?

    是的。作為後續行動,本季的規劃預測,我們沒有收入前景,但有營業收入前景,我想這對人們來說真正重要。但我認為有一個潛在的收入假設,我想如果你願意的話,你會把它給我們,但你選擇不這麼做。那麼,也許可以幫助我們理解您對 24 年全年收入所做的假設以及指導您的方式的選擇的想法和看跌期權?

  • Marco Wiren - CFO

    Marco Wiren - CFO

  • Yes, absolutely. Thank you. As you see, we changed a little bit how we are guiding for this year, and we decided to give more flavor and information about our assumptions for business growth. And we believe that this will be more helpful for you to get a better picture of each of the businesses, which are then combining the whole company. And for the group level, we guide on the operating profit and free cash flow. And then you can see that we have -- on the business group's assumptions, we have both net sales and also operating margin.

    是的,一點沒錯。謝謝。正如您所看到的,我們對今年的指導方式做了一些改變,我們決定提供更多關於我們對業務成長的假設的資訊和資訊。我們相信,這將更有助於您更好地了解每個業務,然後將整個公司合併起來。對於集團層面,我們以營業利潤和自由現金流為指導。然後你可以看到,根據業務部門的假設,我們既有淨銷售額,也有營業利益率。

  • And then when it comes to technologies, we have also given you what is the operating profit assumption for this year. And also the seasonality we have given you very -- hopefully good understanding how the year will play out. And the seasonality will be I would say, more back to normal that we've seen in some years ago as well and very heavy second half quarter 1 is about 23% normally lower than quarter 4 year before. So I hope that these more detailed assumptions in the guidance will give you a better understanding how the company is going and also giving you a better understanding of the different areas and businesses.

    然後,在技術方面,我們也向您提供了今年的營業利潤假設。還有我們為您提供的季節性信息,希望您能很好地了解這一年將如何發展。我想說,季節性將比幾年前我們看到的更加恢復正常,第一季下半年非常嚴重,約 23%,通常低於去年第四季。因此,我希望指南中的這些更詳細的假設能讓您更了解公司的發展情況,並讓您更了解不同的領域和業務。

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • Maybe as a quick follow-up, just to put things in perspective in terms of seasonality. So when we are saying that we are returning to a more normal seasonality, how was this then abnormal in 2023? There were 2 main reasons for that. In Mobile Networks, there were significant deliveries in India in the first half of the year, which kind of distorted the seasonality. And then the same thing, but for a different reason in NI as well. The beginning of the year was extremely strong because there were catch-up deliveries that had to do with the supply chain shortage and the extremely high orders that operators have placed as a result of increased demand as a result of COVID. So that's why both NI and MN had unusual seasonality in 2023 and both of those we expect to return back to normal in '24.

    也許作為一個快速的後續行動,只是為了從季節性角度來看待事情。那麼,當我們說我們正在回歸更正常的季節性時,2023 年的情況為何不正常?主要原因有兩個。在行動網路方面,今年上半年印度的交付量很大,這在某種程度上扭曲了季節性。然後同樣的事情,但在 NI 中也出於不同的原因。今年年初的表現非常強勁,因為供應鏈短缺導致了補貨,而且由於新冠疫情導致需求增加,營運商下了極高的訂單。因此,這就是為什麼 NI 和 MN 在 2023 年都有不尋常的季節性,而我們預計這兩者都會在 2024 年恢復正常。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • We'll take our next question from Francois Bouvignies from UBS.

    我們將回答瑞銀集團 Francois Bouvignies 提出的下一個問題。

  • Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst

    Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst

  • Just wanted to ask you on the hyperscale wins and momentum. And Pekka you seem, in your remarks and in the release, quite excited about the wins and the network infrastructure momentum. And I wanted to ask you from the switching and routing, do you -- are you taking some market share there? Can you elaborate a bit on the hyperscale wins momentum, if it's related to AI? Just to understand a bit better the momentum because when we look at Arista and Cisco, it doesn't seem they have a lot of momentum. So it's very specific to you, which would suggest that you are gaining some market share. But then you said a bit earlier that the market share is more on the optical side and it seems to be more market-driven on the other side of routing and fix. So just to elaborate, would be great. That's my first question.

    只是想問您有關超大規模的勝利和勢頭。 Pekka 在您的演講和新聞稿中似乎對勝利和網路基礎設施的勢頭感到非常興奮。我想問你們,你們在交換和路由方面是否正在佔據一些市場份額?如果與人工智慧相關的話,您能否詳細說明一下超大規模的獲勝勢頭?只是為了更好地理解這種勢頭,因為當我們觀察 Arista 和 Cisco 時,他們似乎沒有很大的動力。因此,它對您來說非常具體,這表明您正在獲得一些市場份額。但你之前說過,市場份額更集中在光學方面,而路由和修復方面的市場份額似乎更多地由市場驅動。所以只要詳細說明就太好了。這是我的第一個問題。

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • That's a highly relevant question. The NI business with hyperscalers has been fairly optical driven exactly as I commented before. We have existing optical business with them that is looking pretty good. But the main growth potential for us there is really in data center switching. And I cannot disclose the name, but we had a significant order from one of the hyperscalers in Q4. We hope to be able to disclose the name also in not too distant future, but we are not able to do it yet. And this will be driving growth for webscale business in the IP networks part of NI going into 2024. Of course, we have to remember that compared to our competitors, our switching business -- data center switching business is small.

    這是一個高度相關的問題。正如我之前評論的那樣,NI 的超大規模業務一直是相當光學驅動的。我們與他們現有的光學業務看起來相當不錯。但我們主要的成長潛力確實在於資料中心交換。我無法透露具體名稱,但我們在第四季度從一家超大規模企業獲得了一份重要訂單。我們希望在不久的將來也能夠透露這個名稱,但目前還無法做到。到2024年,這將推動NI IP網路部分的網路規模業務成長。當然,我們必須記住,與我們的競爭對手相比,我們的交換業務——資料中心交換業務規模很小。

  • So we are a challenger, but the good side of that is, of course, is that now when we have an increasingly strong product portfolio for that based on our in-house silicon, which is welcomed by hyperscalers combined with strong software offering that offers a lot of flexibility for different data center architectures, we believe that there is a possibility to gradually break into this market and get meaningful growth in the segment because, of course, we know -- we all know that the CSP market as a whole will not be a growth market. Of course, we target to gain share there. But data centers will be the most significant growth market in the whole world in our industry. And that's why it is so important to increasingly focus on that segment.

    因此,我們是一個挑戰者,但當然,好的一面是,現在我們擁有基於我們內部晶片的日益強大的產品組合,這受到超大規模企業的歡迎,並結合了強大的軟體產品,可提供對於不同的資料中心架構有很大的靈活性,我們相信有可能逐步打入這個市場並在該領域獲得有意義的成長,因為我們當然知道——我們都知道整個CSP 市場將不是一個成長市場。當然,我們的目標是在那裡獲得份額。但數據中心將成為我們行業全球最重要的成長市場。這就是為什麼越來越關注該細分市場如此重要。

  • Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst

    Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst

  • Just a quick clarification on what you said Pekka, the deal you signed that you can't disclose yet. I mean, I guess it's a market share. I mean, I guess you are kind of a market share winner, I would imagine, given your low footprint in originally in this?

    只是簡單地澄清一下你所說的佩卡,你簽署的協議,但你目前還不能透露。我的意思是,我想這是市場佔有率。我的意思是,我想你是市場佔有率的贏家,我想,考慮到你最初在這方面的足跡很小?

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • Yes, it is. It is a market share win, yes.

    是的。是的,這是市場佔有率的勝利。

  • Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst

    Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst

  • Okay. And just my follow-up question is on Open RAN. AT&T kind of surprised the market with this deal. And I just was wondering if you see some acceleration in terms of activity of open RAN from other operators following that deal. I mean, we are a few months now, a couple of months after this announcement. From what we understand, the other operators are also looking closely at it. And so do you expect other announcements from other operators this year of this kind? Or do you really think it's like just a one-off for now?

    好的。我的後續問題是關於 Open RAN 的。 AT&T 的這筆交易讓市場感到驚訝。我只是想知道,在這筆交易之後,其他業者的開放 RAN 活動是否有所加速。我的意思是,我們已經幾個月了,幾個月後才宣布這項消息。據了解,其他業者也密切關注。那麼您預計今年其他業者還會發布類似的公告嗎?或者你真的認為這只是一次性的嗎?

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • Open RAN is gradually gaining speed. I don't expect and I have not seen that the AT&T decision would have led to any kind of increase in open RAN interest in other parts of the world. There are a lot of estimates that in 2028, ORAN would represent roughly 25% -- or 24% of the total RAN market. So that gives you a perspective. What I really suggest is that people need to follow up very closely that what the facts about different rollouts are including in all announced projects, how quickly will it be? And will it be true ORAN? Or will it be ORAN where you just have the same supplier on both sides of the interface?

    Open RAN 正逐漸提速。我不期望也沒有看到 AT&T 的決定會導致世界其他地區對開放 RAN 興趣的任何形式的增長。有許多預測認為,到 2028 年,ORAN 將佔 RAN 市場總量的約 25% 或 24%。這給了你一個視角。我真正建議的是,人們需要非常密切地關注所有已宣布的項目中包含的不同推出的事實,以及它的速度有多快?這會是真正的奧蘭嗎?還是 ORAN,介面兩側都有相同的供應商?

  • We have 2 real commercial ORAN deployments ongoing at the moment. One is with NTT DOCOMO in Japan, and the other one is the recently announced Deutsche Telekom project in Germany. We have already connected our DU and CU to 5 suppliers radio units, which is more than any other supplier. So gradually, ORAN fronthaul -- open fronthaul interface is becoming commercial reality. It starts from simple radios and only gradually moves to massive MIMO, but it will eventually get there as well. So it will be part of the market -- a small part of the market for quite some time. But as I have said before, we see it as more as an opportunity than a threat for Nokia.

    我們目前正在進行 2 個真正的商業 ORAN 部署。一個是日本的 NTT DOCOMO,另一個是最近宣布的德國德國電信計畫。我們已經將我們的 DU 和 CU 連接到 5 個供應商的無線電單元,這比任何其他供應商都多。因此,ORAN前傳-開放式前傳介面正逐漸成為商業現實。它從簡單的無線電開始,逐漸轉向大規模 MIMO,但它最終也會實現這一目標。因此,它將成為市場的一部分——在相當長的一段時間內只是市場的一小部分。但正如我之前所說,我們將其視為諾基亞的機會而不是威脅。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • We'll take our next question from Sami Sarkamies from Danske Bank.

    我們將接受丹麥銀行 Sami Sarkamies 提出的下一個問題。

  • Sami Sarkamies - Analyst

    Sami Sarkamies - Analyst

  • For Mobile Network of less than EUR 9 billion this year with low single-digit EBIT margin, just curious how will you be able to retain scale and grow revenues to EUR 10 billion target that will be required for double-digit margins in the long run? I mean if we look at the latest forecast from the likes of Dell'Oro, the 5-year outlook for RAN market looks quite flattish even if you assume some share gains from Chinese rivals. Do you have anything else planned than the cost program that was announced after third quarter results?

    對於今年規模低於90 億歐元且息稅前利潤率較低的行動網絡,只是好奇您如何能夠保持規模並將收入增長到100 億歐元的目標,從長遠來看,這是實現兩位數利潤率所需要的?我的意思是,如果我們看看 Dell'Oro 等公司的最新預測,即使您假設中國競爭對手的份額有所增長,RAN 市場的 5 年前景看起來也相當平淡。除了第三季業績後宣布的成本計劃之外,您還有其他計劃嗎?

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • Of course, I mean, the cost program is an important element in this, but we also have to remember that perhaps with the exception of India, 2023 was really weak year when it comes to investments. And when you look at the big picture, only 25% of 5G base stations are mid band. So that is suggesting that there will have to be over time in the second half of 2020s, there will have to be significant investments in 5G radio networks in different parts of the world already before 6G starts to come in. Data traffic continues to grow 20% to 30% of the year. And then in addition to that, the Chinese will be increasingly under pressure because of political reasons and because of the various actions that the Western countries have taken to limit their access to latest silicon.

    當然,我的意思是,成本計劃是其中的一個重要因素,但我們也必須記住,也許除了印度之外,2023 年在投資方面確實是疲軟的一年。從整體來看,只有 25% 的 5G 基地台是中頻段。因此,這表明,隨著時間的推移,在 2020 年代下半年,在 6G 開始出現之前,世界各地必須對 5G 無線電網路進行大量投資。數據流量繼續增長 20一年中的 % 到 30%。除此之外,由於政治原因以及西方國家為限制其獲取最新矽而採取的各種行動,中國人將面臨越來越大的壓力。

  • So it is very clear that to get to EUR 10 billion top line, we have to continue to take market share. AT&T is, of course, a setback. From there, we need to start climbing back up towards a market share that we'll need to start by 3 if you want to get to EUR 10 billion top line. It is a challenge, absolutely, and that's why we have provided a fairly low guidance for this year's profitability, 1% to 4%, and then we commented '26 target at the December event, we are not assuming that we would get to double digit by 2026. Then we also need to keep in mind that when we talk about the second half of the decade. By then, we will have significantly increased the non-CSP business part of Mobile Networks. We are already now growing, albeit from a low base, fast in private wireless.

    因此很明顯,要達到 100 億歐元的營收,我們必須繼續佔據市場份額。 AT&T 當然是個挫折。從那時起,我們需要開始回升市場份額,如果您想達到 100 億歐元的營收,我們需要從 3 開始。這絕對是一個挑戰,這就是為什麼我們為今年的盈利能力提供了相當低的指導,即1% 到4%,然後我們在12 月的活動中評論了“26 目標”,我們不認為我們會翻倍到 2026 年,我們還需要牢記這一點。屆時,我們將大幅增加行動網路的非CSP業務部分。儘管基數較低,但我們現在已經在專用無線領域快速成長。

  • And then a very important target for the second half of the decade is the defense industry, where the spending is significant, it is currently mostly proprietary military technologies when it comes to communications. And the challenge they are facing is that it is getting extremely difficult to being cost competitive there when the technologies are proprietary. So it's getting extremely expensive. And that's why the whole defense industry in several parts of the world is looking at commercial technologies at the moment, such as 5G to provide an alternative to proprietary military technologies. We have said that the actions that MN is taking will allow them to lower the level of net sales to reach this 10% operating margin to approximately EUR 10 billion, as you said. So that is a correct figure that you mentioned. That is our target, how we are modeling the business. Currently, before the cost action started the level to reach a 10% operating margin in terms of sales was EUR 11.5 billion. So now we are taking that to EUR 10 billion.

    本世紀後半葉的一個非常重要的目標是國防工業,該行業的支出很大,目前在通訊方面主要是專有的軍事技術。他們面臨的挑戰是,當技術是專有的時,在當地保持成本競爭力變得極其困難。所以它變得非常昂貴。這就是為什麼世界多個地區的整個國防工業目前都在尋求商業技術,例如 5G,以提供專有軍事技術的替代方案。我們說過,正如您所說,MN 正在採取的行動將使他們能夠降低淨銷售額水平,將 10% 的營業利潤率達到約 100 億歐元。所以這是你提到的正確數字。這就是我們的目標,也就是我們如何對業務進行建模。目前,在成本行動開始之前,銷售額達到 10% 營業利潤的水平為 115 億歐元。所以現在我們把這個數字提高到 100 億歐元。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • Do you have a quick follow-up, Sami?

    薩米,你有快速跟進嗎?

  • Sami Sarkamies - Analyst

    Sami Sarkamies - Analyst

  • Maybe technical, regarding technologies. There was a slight drop in IPR run rate during Q4. Can you elaborate on that? And then just update on where we will be after the Oppo renewal? I think previously, you were talking about EUR 1.1 billion starting this year. But now I guess it must be a bit more than that?

    也許是技術性的,關於技術的。第四季知識產權運行率略有下降。能詳細說明一下嗎?然後更新一下 Oppo 更新後我們會怎麼樣?我想之前您談論的是從今年開始的 11 億歐元。但現在我想,一定不止於此吧?

  • Marco Wiren - CFO

    Marco Wiren - CFO

  • Yes. Thank you, Sami. When it comes to run rate in quarter 4, we had 1 license that expired at the end of quarter 3, and that's why we see a run rate changed as well. But if you look '24, so we are guiding an increase in our run rate, and we just cannot quantify these yet because we have still some deals that are outstanding and because the content of the deals are confidential, we are not allowed to give you that much information about that. But I hope that perhaps in quarter 1, we will give you more flavor on this as well. And when it comes to '24 operating profit, we said at least EUR 1.4 billion for the full year, and this is including the catch-ups as well.

    是的。謝謝你,薩米。當談到第 4 季的運行率時,我們有 1 個許可證在第 3 季末到期,這就是我們看到運行率也發生變化的原因。但如果你看看'24,那麼我們正在指導提高我們的運行率,我們只是無法量化這些,因為我們仍然有一些未完成的交易,並且由於交易的內容是保密的,我們不允許透露你有那麼多關於那方面的資訊。但我希望也許在第一季度,我們也會為您提供更多關於此方面的資訊。當談到 24 年營業利潤時,我們表示全年至少為 14 億歐元,這也包括追趕利潤。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • We'll take our next question from Richard Kramer from Arete.

    我們將回答來自 Arete 的 Richard Kramer 的下一個問題。

  • Richard Alan Kramer - Founder, MD & Senior Analyst

    Richard Alan Kramer - Founder, MD & Senior Analyst

  • Pekka, my question is, I'm just conscious that this year, you've laid out targets and talked about order strength at the beginning of the year and then needed to reduce your targets for margins and cash conversion. Now you're looking at EUR 1 billion of cash outflows for restructuring. And so my question is, how are you going to mitigate the risk of losing sales or momentum or other opportunities in the midst of this reset? And are you confident that you can undertake the restructuring without opportunities that you've laid out, the green...

    佩卡,我的問題是,我只是意識到今年,您在年初制定了目標並討論了訂單強度,然後需要降低利潤和現金轉換的目標。現在您正在考慮用於重組的 10 億歐元現金流出。所以我的問題是,在這次重置過程中,您將如何減輕失去銷售、動力或其他機會的風險?您是否有信心在沒有您所安排的機會的情況下進行重組,綠色…

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • Yes. I mean the biggest restructuring when it comes to customer interface, that actually went live already on the 1st of January. So we did it very quickly. We made the decision late in the year, and we planned and executed everything very, very quickly. So now Q1 will be the quarter of stabilization in the customer interface. And I have to say that when we have explained the logic to the customers, basically saying that we want for each business to place highly empowered teams in front of the customer so as to shorten, simplify the organizational structure and shorten the distance between the customer and the real decision makers for each business that has been very well received.

    是的。我指的是客戶介面方面最大的重組,實際上已經在 1 月 1 日上線。所以我們做得很快。我們在今年年底做出了決定,我們非常非常快速地規劃和執行了一切。因此,現在第一季將是客戶介面穩定的季度。而且我必須說,當我們向客戶解釋了邏輯之後,基本上就是說我們希望每個業務都將高度授權的團隊放在客戶面前,從而縮短、簡化組織架構,拉近與客戶之間的距離。以及每項業務的真正決策者都深受好評。

  • And when you then complement that with the account executive concept where one of the sales leads of the businesses take on as an additional responsibility to run the overall relationship management with the customer and then to coordinate cross BG matters. So that simplification has been well received. Of course, this type of things always cause stability issues in the short term, but I believe that they will quickly be behind us and people will start to see the benefits of this new model.

    然後,當您以客戶執行概念來補充這個概念時,企業的一位銷售主管將承擔額外的責任,與客戶進行整體關係管理,然後協調跨業務部門的事務。因此,這種簡化受到了好評。當然,這類事情總是會在短期內引起穩定性問題,但我相信它們很快就會成為過去,人們將開始看到這種新模式的好處。

  • Then when it comes to the other cost savings in addition to the simplification of the customer interface, there we have to look at each business separately. And of course, as we said, Mobile Networks accounts for roughly 60% of the action we are taking. And that's, of course, a reflection of the overall industry outlook and the challenges that, that business is facing. But this is already also well underway in terms of implementation. And there the most important goal is really, as we said in December also is to protect our R&D output.

    然後,當涉及到除了簡化客戶介面之外的其他成本節省時,我們必須分別考慮每個業務。當然,正如我們所說,行動網路約占我們正在採取的行動的 60%。當然,這反映了整個行業前景以及該業務面臨的挑戰。但這在實施上也已經順利進行。正如我們在 12 月所說,最重要的目標實際上也是保護我們的研發產出。

  • Yes. If I just then move on to the other businesses. So because this is very much MN-centric, then NI has a different situation because there we have as I said, great order intake in Q4, and we have a 2% to 8% growth outlook for this year. So there, obviously, the need to restructure the cost base is not the same as it is in the MN business. And then in CNS, the action is mostly centered around portfolio rebalancing. You will have seen that we made some divestments last year, and we are getting close to the type of portfolio that we look at -- are looking for. The rebalancing is not 100% done yet. We are still working on certain things. That's really the name of the game in CNS. And then tech we already discussed because now with the Oppo deal and hopefully the rest coming soon, we will see a significant stability in that business. So all 4 businesses are in a fundamentally different place when it comes to the restructuring need.

    是的。如果我隨後轉向其他業務的話。因此,由於這在很大程度上以MN 為中心,因此NI 的情況有所不同,因為正如我所說,我們在第四季度收到了大量訂單,並且我們今年的成長前景為2% 至8% 。因此,顯然,重組成本基礎的需要與 MN 業務中的需要不同。然後在中樞神經系統中,行動主要集中在投資組合再平衡。你會看到我們去年進行了一些撤資,我們正在接近我們正在尋找的投資組合類型。重新平衡尚未 100% 完成。我們仍在致力於某些事情。這確實是 CNS 遊戲的名稱。然後是我們已經討論過的技術,因為現在隨著 Oppo 交易的完成,希望其他交易很快就會到來,我們將看到該業務的顯著穩定性。因此,在重組需求方面,所有 4 家企業都處於根本不同的位置。

  • Richard Alan Kramer - Founder, MD & Senior Analyst

    Richard Alan Kramer - Founder, MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then 1 quick 1 for Marco. Again, just conscious that your predecessor had relied in the past on sale of receivables. You did mention that in the statements. Could you give us a sort of rough quantification of how much sales and receivables helped this very good cash flow performance in Q4?

    好的。然後馬可1快1。再說一次,只是意識到你的前任過去依賴應收帳款的銷售。您在聲明中確實提到了這一點。您能否給我們一個粗略的量化,說明銷售和應收帳款對第四季非常好的現金流表現有多大幫助?

  • Marco Wiren - CFO

    Marco Wiren - CFO

  • We actually have changed quite dramatically when it comes to how we see sale of receivables. The main thing what we do when we use sale of receivables is to mitigate risks. So it could be country risk or customer risk and also the cost -- hedging costs, for example, in certain currencies. So the principle is quite different. And now in quarter 4, we mentioned that, but it was a meaningful increase. So in some quarters, we see changes in sale of receivables, and it could be just like I said, that -- it could be a specific country or customer where we see that it's good that we hedge ourselves by selling the receivable or in some cases, actually, we see also that the customers are themselves paying for sale of receivables. And then, of course, it's a no-brainer to do that.

    事實上,我們對應收帳款銷售的看法發生了巨大的變化。當我們使用應收帳款銷售時,我們所做的主要事情是降低風險。因此,這可能是國家風險或客戶風險,也可能是成本——例如某些貨幣的對沖成本。所以原理是完全不同的。現在在第四季度,我們提到了這一點,但這是一個有意義的成長。因此,在某些季度,我們看到應收帳款銷售的變化,這可能就像我說的那樣,可能是在某個特定國家或客戶,我們認為透過出售應收帳款來對沖自己是件好事,或者在某些情況下,我們會看到應收帳款銷售的變化。事實上,我們也看到客戶自己支付應收帳款的銷售費用。當然,這樣做是理所當然的。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • We'll take our next question from Daniel Djurberg from Handelsbanken.

    我們將接受德國商業銀行的 Daniel Djurberg 提出的下一個問題。

  • Daniel Djurberg - Research Analyst

    Daniel Djurberg - Research Analyst

  • Congratulations on solid year-end. I would like to ask you a little bit on coming back to the catch-up and the IPR revenues that you see. And the question is really, if the EUR 1.4 billion low level that you aim for in technologies in 2024. If this is dependent also on that you signed a recently expired name, and if it also includes HP and Amazon that you have litigation for or if you can more or less meet this EUR 1.4 billion also excluding these 3?

    恭喜您年終了。我想問您一些關於追趕和您所看到的知識產權收入的問題。問題是,您在 2024 年的技術目標是否達到 14 億歐元的低水平。這是否還取決於您簽署的最近過期的名稱,以及是否還包括您提起訴訟的 HP 和 Amazon,或者如果不包括這3個,你能或多或少滿足這14億歐元嗎?

  • Marco Wiren - CFO

    Marco Wiren - CFO

  • Yes. What comes to different deals and exactly their levels we cannot go into, as you understand, these are confidential. But we have guided on the best knowledge that we have today and what we see will happen throughout the year. And we've been clear on that as well that this is including the catch-up for those Oppo deal that we just signed. And we also expect to sign couple other deals in technologies that we have -- that has expired before the year-end.

    是的。如您所知,不同交易的內容以及具體級別我們無法透露,這些都是保密的。但我們已經根據我們今天所掌握的最佳知識以及我們所看到的全年將發生的情況進行了指導。我們也明確表示,這包括追趕我們剛剛簽署的 Oppo 協議。我們也預計簽署我們現有技術的其他幾項協議——這些協議已在年底前到期。

  • Daniel Djurberg - Research Analyst

    Daniel Djurberg - Research Analyst

  • Perfect. And a follow-up, if I may, on the broadband equity and access deployment program in the U.S. Have you seen any news there in terms of financing, any early order intake. So if it's still your view that it will be supportive on the second half of this year?

    完美的。如果可以的話,還有關於美國寬頻股權和接取部署計畫的後續行動。您是否看到了融資方面的任何新聞以及早期訂單接收。那麼,您是否仍認為今年下半年會起到支撐作用?

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • Absolutely, it will be supportive. And exactly, as we said earlier, the impact starts to be -- when we talk about sales, it starts to gradually come in, in the second half of the year. We have a lot of stuff in the pipeline that we are working on at the moment. So second half of '24 and then, of course, '25, it will play a meaningful role in NI, especially Fixed Networks, but there could also be benefits to IP networks and Optical Networks. Of course, we need to keep in mind that when we talk about the EUR 42 billion total program value, approximately 10% of that is addressable to us. The rest will go to something else like digging cables into the ground.

    絕對會支持的。確切地說,正如我們之前所說,影響開始是——當我們談論銷售時,它開始在今年下半年逐漸顯現。我們目前正在籌備很多工作。因此,24 年下半年,當然還有 25 年,它將在 NI 中發揮有意義的作用,尤其是固定網絡,但 IP 網路和光網絡也可能受益。當然,我們需要記住,當我們談論 420 億歐元的計劃總價值時,我們可以解決其中約 10% 的問題。其餘的將用於其他事情,例如在地下挖電纜。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • We'll take our next question from Joseph Zhou from Barclays.

    我們將接受巴克萊銀行 Joseph Zhou 的下一個問題。

  • Joseph Zhou - Research Analyst

    Joseph Zhou - Research Analyst

  • One and then another follow-up. So firstly, on your free cash flow conversion guidance for 2024, it remains well below the long-term target despite the boost from the IPR cash payments. I understand you talked about the moving parts with restructuring and also some prepaid payments already happened. And are there any reasons for us not to expect a bigger working capital reversal, given the 5G cycle? And just wondering what are we missing here?

    一個接著一個後續。因此,首先,就 2024 年自由現金流轉換指引而言,儘管智慧財產權現金支付有所增加,但它仍遠低於長期目標。據我所知,您談到了重組的活動部分以及已經發生的一些預付款。考慮到 5G 週期,我們是否有理由不預期營運資金會出現更大的逆轉?只是想知道我們在這裡錯過了什麼?

  • Marco Wiren - CFO

    Marco Wiren - CFO

  • Yes. Just like you mentioned as well that we will have the negative impact by the prepayments that we received in technologies in '23. And then we expect also working capital to continue to have a positive impact. But these -- if you sum up these, we believe that we are well in the range that we have guided, which is improving from last year. Last year range that we guided was 20% to 50%. Now it's 30% to 60%. And then year after that, we believe that we are well in our long-term guidance range as well. So it's step-by-step improvement that we see in the free cash flow conversion ratios.

    是的。正如您也提到的,我們將因 23 年收到的技術預付款而產生負面影響。然後我們預計營運資金也將繼續產生正面影響。但如果你總結一下這些,我們相信我們完全處於我們指導的範圍內,而且比去年有所改善。去年我們指導的範圍是 20% 到 50%。現在是30%到60%。在那之後的一年裡,我們相信我們也很好地處於我們的長期指導範圍內。因此,我們在自由現金流轉換率中看到了逐步的改善。

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • And when it comes to net working capital, we already saw good release in Q4 last year, which was one of the drivers behind the strong cash flow in Q4. There is still additional potential there. But I'm just kind of saying that part of it was already released in Q4. Then there is the EUR 700 million prepayments in tech or EUR 700 million -- no, sorry, I take it back, EUR 700 million lower cash compared to sales -- net sales in '24 in tech, then there is restructuring cash outflow in 2024. And then since you mentioned the catch-up payments, there you have to remember that, that will be both cash and revenue in '24. So that does not improve the conversion. It improves the absolute cash, absolutely, but it does not improve the conversion.

    就淨營運資本而言,我們去年第四季已經看到了良好的釋放,這是第四季度強勁現金流背後的驅動因素之一。那裡仍然有額外的潛力。但我只是想說,其中一部分已經在第四季發布了。然後是科技領域的7 億歐元預付款或7 億歐元——不,抱歉,我收回這句話,與銷售額相比,現金少了7 億歐元——24 年科技領域的淨銷售額,然後是重組現金流出2024 年。既然你提到了追趕付款,你必須記住,24 年這將是現金和收入。所以這並不能提高轉換率。它確實提高了絕對現金,但並沒有提高轉換率。

  • Joseph Zhou - Research Analyst

    Joseph Zhou - Research Analyst

  • And then just a follow-up on the BEAD projects in North America. Just wondering how much contribution have you baked into your 2% to 8% NI growth from these BEAD projects in North America? And also, you talked about better orders you're seeing for these projects. And what's your visibility to the timing of these projects in terms of delivery?

    然後是北美 BEAD 計畫的後續行動。只是想知道北美的這些 BEAD 計畫對 2% 至 8% 的 NI 成長做出了多少貢獻?而且,您還談到了您在這些項目中看到的更好的訂單。您對這些項目的交付時間的了解如何?

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • Yes. Well, as I said, the timing is such that we start to see top line effects of it in the second half of -- gradually in the second half of 2024 and then into 2025. We have a strong pipeline of opportunities. If I'm not mistaken, there was something small in the order intake already in Q4, but that was small so it is taking off gradually these things because they are politically driven. They always take the time first, you allocate the money on the federal level, then it goes to the state levels, and then gradually it fluctuates the different opportunities with carriers. We have not quantified exactly how much of this would be in the 2% to 8% growth assumption in NI. But as I said, it's H2 driven and it's not huge yet in 2024. It will grow gradually throughout the second half and then into '25.

    是的。嗯,正如我所說,時機是這樣的,我們在下半年開始看到它的營收影響——逐漸在 2024 年下半年,然後到 2025 年。我們有大量的機會。如果我沒記錯的話,第四季的訂單量已經很小了,但是很小,所以這些事情正在逐漸起飛,因為它們是政治驅動的。他們總是先花時間,在聯邦層級分配資金,然後再分配到州層面,然後逐漸與營運商提供不同的機會。我們尚未準確量化 NI 2% 至 8% 成長假設中的具體比例。但正如我所說,它是 H2 驅動的,到 2024 年還不是很大。它將在下半年逐漸增長,然後進入 25 年。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • We'll take our next question from Artem Beletski from SEB.

    我們將回答來自 SEB 的 Artem Beletski 的下一個問題。

  • Artem Beletski - Analyst

    Artem Beletski - Analyst

  • I would like to actually ask on European development and looking at revenue trends, so it seems to be the case that declines have been accelerating also excluding technologies related impact in Q4. Could you maybe talk a bit more what is happening really there? Is there also potentially some inventory digestion, which is ongoing on the market?

    我實際上想詢問歐洲的發展並關注收入趨勢,因此似乎情況是下降速度一直在加速,也不包括第四季度與技術相關的影響。能多談談那裡到底發生了什麼事嗎?市面上是否也存在潛在的庫存消化?

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • I mean there -- I mean, here and there, there could be some inventory digestion, but the real issue in Europe is really the weak economy operators, high leverage high interest rates and consequently, their low appetite to invest. The big question is that when will that start to change, of course, lower interest rates would be great to that end. But fundamentally, I believe that they will have to start investing again. And of course, they are talking about it, but we have not seen that much yet. What I'm afraid, and this is my big worry, I mean, not that much about Nokia, but as a European, there is a risk that Europe falls behind the rest of the world in terms of competitiveness because of the quality of digital infrastructure that we have. The 5G deployment is slower in Europe than in other parts of the world. Politicians and operators understand it. They are talking about it. It remains to be seen when that will start to change.

    我的意思是,我的意思是,到處可能會有一些庫存消化,但歐洲的真正問題實際上是經濟運營商疲軟、高槓桿率和高利率,以及因此導致的投資興趣低下。最大的問題是,這種情況何時會開始改變,當然,降低利率對此會很有幫助。但從根本上來說,我相信他們將不得不再次開始投資。當然,他們正在談論它,但我們還沒有看到那麼多。我擔心的是,這是我最大的擔憂,我的意思是,並不是關於諾基亞,而是作為一個歐洲人,由於數字化的質量,歐洲在競爭力方面有落後於世界其他地區的風險我們擁有的基礎設施。歐洲的 5G 部署速度慢於世界其他地區。政治家和經營者都明白這一點。他們正在談論它。這種情況何時開始改變還有待觀察。

  • But I'm convinced that it will change. But these things like mid-band penetration in 5G radio, et cetera. It is clearly lower in Europe than in many other parts of the world. But again, what we would hope to, of course, see that the operator market in Europe would consolidate so that we would get stronger -- financially stronger operators. In Europe, there is one operator per 4 million to 5 million inhabitants and that is, of course, a totally different level than in any other part of the world. In India, there is -- depending on how you calculate 3 or 4 operators for 1.3 billion people. In China, there is 3 operators for 1.3 billion people. And in Europe, we have 1 operator for 4.5 million people. So the market is so fragmented that it does need to get consolidated. That's one aspect of the picture. But then there are others, as I said, interest rates, et cetera.

    但我堅信它會改變。但這些東西例如 5G 無線電的中頻段滲透率等等。歐洲的數字顯然低於世界許多其他地區。但同樣,我們當然希望看到歐洲的營運商市場能夠整合,以便我們變得更強大——財務上更強大的營運商。在歐洲,每 400 萬到 500 萬居民就有一個運營商,當然,這個水平與世界任何其他地區完全不同。在印度,有——這取決於你如何計算 13 億人口有 3 到 4 個運營商。在中國,13億人口有3家業者。在歐洲,我們有 1 個營運商為 450 萬人提供服務。因此,市場如此分散,確實需要整合。這是圖片的一方面。但正如我所說,還有其他因素,利率等等。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • Do you have a follow-up question?

    您還有後續問題嗎?

  • Artem Beletski - Analyst

    Artem Beletski - Analyst

  • Yes. The follow-up would be actually relating on some good strides what you are making on switching side. And could you maybe comment on profitability of this business, how we should think about it? Is it more like IP Networks type of margin, what you're making there?

    是的。後續行動實際上將涉及您在切換方面取得的一些良好進展。您能否評論一下這項業務的獲利能力,我們該如何看待它?您在那裡賺取的利潤更像是 IP 網路類型的利潤嗎?

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • Well, that is, of course, highly confidential when we get to one product group for one customer group. But of course, all this has been assumed in the targets that we have both short-term and long-term targets that we have put ourselves for the NI business. IP business has good profitability and the targets that we have for that business will, of course, stay there also including the growth in switching.

    嗯,當我們為一個客戶群提供一個產品組時,這當然是高度機密的。當然,所有這些都是在我們為 NI 業務制定的短期和長期目標中假設的。 IP業務具有良好的獲利能力,我們對該業務的目標當然也將保持不變,包括轉換的成長。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • We'll take our last question from Aleksander Peterc from Societe Generale. Alex, please go ahead, and if you don't mind keeping it to one question, just given the time.

    我們將回答法國興業銀行 Aleksander Peterc 提出的最後一個問題。亞歷克斯,請繼續,如果您不介意只回答一個問題,只要有時間即可。

  • Aleksander Peterc - Equity Analyst

    Aleksander Peterc - Equity Analyst

  • Just a quick one to come back on Mobile Networks very briefly. Could you give us a broad idea of when you expect Mobile Networks to kind of bottom out and flatten? Is there a 2025 event? Or will happen later? Maybe another way of asking this is, at what point do you expect the AT&T 5G footprint loss resulting from last year's decision to wash out of the base? I know you gave some color on AT&T and all the puts and takes, but just to give us a broad idea there.

    只是簡單回顧一下行動網路。您能否大致介紹一下您預計行動網路何時會觸底並趨於平緩? 2025 年有活動嗎?還是以後會發生?也許問這個問題的另一種方式是,您預計 AT&T 去年決定退出基地會在什麼時候導致 5G 覆蓋範圍的損失?我知道您對 AT&T 以及所有的看跌期權和看跌期權進行了一些闡述,但這只是為了讓我們有一個大致的了解。

  • Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

    Pekka Ilmari Lundmark - President & CEO

  • I mean I understand the question very well, but you will appreciate that it's extremely difficult to answer because, as I said, first of all, we cannot comment the AT&T situation before we have concluded the negotiations. That is one thing. And of course, we expect to continue -- one way or another, at least to continue to be a supplier there as well. Then there is the whole India question. Volumes are right now going down. What will happen in India, which operators will invest and how much and when? How will the 4G reforming take place in India, et cetera, et cetera.

    我的意思是我非常理解這個問題,但你會明白這個問題很難回答,因為正如我所說,首先,在我們結束談判之前,我們無法評論 AT&T 的情況。這是一回事。當然,我們希望以某種方式繼續下去,至少繼續成為那裡的供應商。然後是整個印度問題。目前成交量正在下降。印度會發生什麼事?哪些業者將投資、投資金額和時間?印度的4G改革將如何進行等等等等。

  • And then there is this whole question of when will the data traffic will grow to a level where operators throughout the world, including in Europe, will be forced to invest. So it is simply too early to say that when Mobile Networks would have reached the bottom. Our outlook for this year, we have wanted to be realistic. That's why we are saying 1% to 4% comparable operating margin, but we are sticking to our longer-term ambition to reach this, what Sami also referred to in his question that with EUR 10 billion sales, we target 10% operating margin. That's how we are modeling the business, but that does require that we also penetrate into non-CSP segments in the second half of 2026.

    接下來的問題是,數據流量何時會成長到包括歐洲在內的世界各地營運商被迫投資的水平。因此,現在判斷行動網路何時觸底還為時過早。我們對今年的展望是現實的。這就是為什麼我們說1% 到4% 的可比營業利潤率,但我們堅持實現這一目標的長期目標,薩米在他的問題中也提到,在銷售額為100 億歐元的情況下,我們的目標是10% 的營業利益率。這就是我們對業務進行建模的方式,但這確實要求我們在 2026 年下半年也滲透到非 CSP 細分市場。

  • David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

    David Terence Mulholland - Head of IR

  • Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. This concludes the Q&A session and today's call. I would like to remind you that during the call today, we have made a number of forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may therefore differ materially from the results currently expected. Factors that could cause such differences can be both external as well as internal operating factors. We have identified such risks in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 20-F which is available on our Investor Relations website. Thank you for joining us.

    謝謝大家今天加入我們。問答環節和今天的電話會議到此結束。我想提醒您,在今天的電話會議中,我們做了一些涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性聲明。因此,實際結果可能與目前預期的結果有重大差異。可能導致這種差異的因素既可以是外部因素,也可以是內部營運因素。我們已在 20-F 表格年度報告的風險因素部分中識別出此類風險,該表格可在我們的投資者關係網站上取得。感謝您加入我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。