科林研發 (LRCX) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation March 2018 Conference Call. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Satya Kumar, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

各位好，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2018 年 3 月電話會議。此時，我謹將會議交給投資人關係副總裁薩蒂亞‧庫馬爾先生。請繼續，先生。

Yes, thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Lam Research Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Martin Anstice, Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

是的，謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加Lam Research季度財報電話會議。今天陪同我的是執行長馬丁·安斯蒂斯，以及執行副總裁兼財務長道格·貝廷格。

During today's call, we'll share our outlook on the business environment, review our financial results for the March 2018 quarter and our outlook for the June 2018 quarter.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的展望，回顧我們 2018 年 3 月季度的財務業績以及我們對 2018 年 6 月季度的展望。

The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon. It can also be found in the Investor Relations section of the company's website along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿於下午1點剛過發布。太平洋時間今天下午。也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到，以及今天電話會議的簡報。

Today's presentation and Q&A includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factor disclosures of our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information.

今天的演示和問答環節包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性已反映在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中的風險因素披露中。更多資訊請參閱簡報中的配套幻燈片。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between the GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release. This call is scheduled to last until 3 p.m. Pacific Time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, the replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website. Due to some technical difficulties, our presentation today will be audio only, and the slides accompanying today's presentation have been posted on our website separately from the webcast.

除非另有說明，我們今天對財務表現的討論將以非GAAP財務報表為基礎。今天的盈利新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整表。本次通話預計持續到下午3點。太平洋時間。（操作員指示）提醒各位，本次通話的錄音將於今天下午晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。由於一些技術困難，我們今天的演示將只有音頻，與今天演示相關的幻燈片已發佈在我們的網站上，與網絡直播分開。

With that, let me hand the call over to Martin.

那麼，我把電話交給馬丁吧。

Again, thank you all for joining us today. As reported, Lam delivered strong financial results for the March 2018 quarter with revenue, gross margin dollars and EPS all at record levels and above the midpoints of guidance. In addition, we completed our first ever quarter with over $3 billion in shipments.

再次感謝各位今天蒞臨。據報道，Lam 在 2018 年 3 月季度取得了強勁的財務業績，收入、毛利和每股收益均創歷史新高，並高於預期中位數。此外，我們首次實現了季度出貨量超過 30 億美元。

Including the June quarter outlook, Lam will deliver revenue growth on a year-over-year basis in 23 out of the last 24 quarters, which is a testament to both the successful scaling of our company and a multiyear environment of demand-led and more sustainable customer investments.

包括 6 月的季度展望在內，Lam 將在過去 24 個季度中的 23 個季度實現同比增長，這既證明了我們公司規模的成功擴張，也證明了多年來以需求為導向、更可持續的客戶投資環境的良好發展。

I would like to take this moment to thank our customers, our employees and our partners for the opportunity they provide us, for their trust and contributions made, without which the performance of Lam would not be possible.

我想藉此機會感謝我們的客戶、員工和合作夥伴，感謝他們給予我們的機會、信任和貢獻，沒有他們的支持，Lam 的發展是不可能實現的。

I will keep my comments brief today given that we provided a comprehensive update on our vision, strategy and objectives at our recent Investor Day.

鑑於我們在最近的投資者日上已經全面介紹了我們的願景、策略和目標，我今天將盡量簡短發言。

Cost-effective scaling of semiconductor device performance remains critical to addressing opportunities provided by the transition to the data economy and now is substantially more diverse in scope than traditional shrink. In this context, our focus is on systematically strengthening the competitiveness and relevance of Lam's product portfolio to the success of our customers.

經濟高效地提升半導體裝置性能對於掌握向數據經濟轉型帶來的機會仍然至關重要，而且其範圍比傳統的縮小要廣泛得多。在此背景下，我們的重點是系統地增強 Lam 產品組合的競爭力和相關性，從而幫助客戶取得成功。

Broadly recognized, etch and deposition technologies are now foundational and permanent features in the current road map of vertical scaling, multipatterning, advanced packaging and advanced transistor architectures. These inflections have resulted in substantial growth in our serviceable addressable market, our SAM, and reiterating a headline of the recent Investor Day, we are on track to grow our SAM to over 40% of wafer fabrication equipment spending by 2021.

廣為人知的是，蝕刻和沈積技術現在是垂直縮放、多重圖案化、先進封裝和先進電晶體架構當前路線圖中的基礎性和永久性特徵。這些轉折點導致我們的可服務目標市場（SAM）大幅成長，正如最近投資者日的頭條新聞所述，我們預計在 2021 年將 SAM 增長到晶圓製造設備支出的 40% 以上。

As an acknowledged leader in etch and deposition markets, we have an opportunity to capture a greater proportion of our customer spending by delivering unit process excellence, leveraging our multiproduct capabilities and engaging in closer collaboration within the semi ecosystem. We are making substantial, comprehensive and disciplined investments in R&D to fund innovation that is intended to extend the differentiation of our products and services portfolio, and we continue to prudently scale the infrastructure of the company to support our 2021 objectives.

作為蝕刻和沈積市場的公認領導者，我們有機會透過提供卓越的單元製程、利用我們的多產品能力以及與半導體生態系統進行更緊密的合作，來贏得更大比例的客戶支出。我們正在研發方面進行大量、全面和嚴謹的投資，以資助旨在擴大我們產品和服務組合差異化的創新，並且我們將繼續謹慎地擴大公司的基礎設施規模，以支持我們 2021 年的目標。

Customer equipment selection decisions in the March 2018 quarter were consistent with expectations in the context of our long-term objectives. Illustratively, we secured additional wins in dielectric etch, one for a high-aspect ratio DRAM application and another for NAND flash, both at leading memory manufacturers. We also won a new nonvolatile memory application with an advanced etch capability, harnessing value from our unit process excellence and unmatched collaboration between Lam etch and deposition business units.

2018 年 3 月季度客戶設備選擇決策符合我們長期目標的預期。例如，我們在媒體蝕刻領域又取得了一些成功，一個是高縱橫比 DRAM 應用，另一個是 NAND 快閃記憶體，這兩個專案都來自領先的記憶體製造商。我們還贏得了新的非揮發性記憶體應用，該應用採用了先進的蝕刻技術，充分利用了我們在單元製程方面的卓越表現以及 Lam 蝕刻和沈積業務部門之間無與倫比的合作。

We see solid momentum with our deposition portfolio, and we're pleased recently to celebrate our 500th VECTOR Strata PECVD product shipments. This platform continues to offer industry-leading productivity and film property control, that together creates customer enablements and competitive differentiation for Lam, creating value and enhancing codependency in mold stack deposition applications in 3D NAND, for example.

我們的沉積產品組合發展勢頭強勁，我們很高興最近慶祝了 VECTOR Strata PECVD 產品出貨量達到 500 件。該平台持續提供業界領先的生產力和薄膜性能控制，這共同為 Lam 創造了客戶賦能和競爭優勢，從而在 3D NAND 等模具堆疊沉積應用中創造價值並增強協同作用。

Our systems business is augmented by our installed base business, where we have been focused on enhancing the breadth and competitiveness of our products and services as a means of further enabling our customers' success.

我們的系統業務得益於我們的已安裝基礎業務，我們一直致力於提高我們產品和服務的廣度和競爭力，以此進一步幫助我們的客戶取得成功。

Customer support business unit revenue growth continued to outperform that of our installed base growth in the March quarter, and we achieved key customer penetrations within our reliance and advanced services business.

在三月的季度中，客戶支援業務部門的收入成長繼續超過我們已安裝基礎的成長，並且我們在信賴和高級服務業務中實現了關鍵的客戶滲透。

At our recent Investor Day, we provided several metrics on long-term growth, not only to illustrate the value of this annuity-like business but more importantly, to emphasize the integral role it plays in value creation, value capture and increasing codependency with our customers.

在我們最近的投資者日上，我們提供了幾個關於長期成長的指標，這不僅是為了說明這種類似年金的業務的價值，更重要的是，是為了強調它在價值創造、價值獲取以及與客戶日益增強的相互依賴性方面所發揮的不可或缺的作用。

Now turning to the macro and wafer fabrication equipment, WFE, spending environment. Expectations for global economic growth remain strong and are healthy. We believe that content growth remains a powerful multiyear driver of demand in the data economy. Context for multiyear customer investments is not simply a byproduct of market efficiency from consolidation and disciplined operational execution through the semiconductor supply chain. It is more fundamentally endorsed by the evergreen verticals of climate change, education, food and water, health care, security and transportation that together, define the opportunity for silicon-based artificial intelligence, AI technologies and applications and services innovation globally.

現在轉向宏觀和晶圓製造設備（WFE）的支出環境。全球經濟成長預期依然強勁且健康。我們認為，內容成長仍然是數據經濟中多年需求成長的強大驅動力。多年客戶投資的背景不僅是半導體供應鏈整合和嚴格營運執行帶來的市場效率的副產品。氣候變遷、教育、食品和水、醫療保健、安全和交通等常青垂直領域從根本上支持了這一趨勢，這些領域共同定義了全球矽基人工智慧、人工智慧技術、應用和服務創新的機會。

In the smartphone end markets, innovative data-intensive services will increasingly be deployed, leveraging AI and using a range of enabling artificial and virtual reality technologies. The deployments of 5G networks will improve the quality of these services. But to deliver the best user experience, the smartphones themselves will require a combination of higher screen resolution, faster refresh cycles and lower power. This will drive the need for nearly 2 times the DRAM contents in smartphones relative to the current global average.

在智慧型手機終端市場，將越來越多部署創新資料密集型服務，利用人工智慧和一系列人工智慧和虛擬實境技術。5G網路的部署將提高這些服務的品質。但要提供最佳用戶體驗，智慧型手機本身需要更高的螢幕解析度、更快的刷新週期和更低的功耗。這將導致智慧型手機對DRAM記憶體的需求量比目前的全球平均高出近2倍。

Additionally, density increases associated with higher layer counts in 3D NAND create the opportunity for terabyte-level storage in smartphones within the next few years.

此外，3D NAND 層數增加帶來的密度提升，為未來幾年智慧型手機實現 TB 級儲存創造了可能。

For 2018, WFE investments by our customers remain prudent and demand-led. Since our update in January, WFE continues to track up low double digits in 2018 compared to 2017, with slightly higher DRAM mix and slightly lower logic investments compared to our earlier baseline. For NAND and nonvolatile memory broadly, the totality of our perspective would be that long-term demand drivers are compelling.

2018 年，我們的客戶對 WFE 的投資依然謹慎，並以需求為導向。自我們 1 月的更新以來，與 2017 年相比，WFE 在 2018 年繼續保持兩位數的低成長，DRAM 佔比略高，邏輯投資略低於我們先前的基準。就 NAND 和非揮發性記憶體而言，我們的總體觀點是，長期需求驅動因素是令人信服的。

Customer investments in 2018 appear essentially equivalent to those of 2017, and considering the impact of customer-specific tool moving plans this year, spending, we expect, will be first half-biased.

2018 年客戶投資似乎與 2017 年基本持平，考慮到今年客戶特定工具遷移計畫的影響，我們預計支出將上半年出現偏差。

For Lam, aggregating all customer segments, we currently anticipate a first half-second half shipments weighting at the low 50s, high 40s level in 2018. We expect relatively balanced revenues through the year.

對 Lam 而言，綜合所有客戶群，我們目前預計 2018 年上半年和下半年的出貨量權重分別為 40 至 50 件。我們預計全年收入將保持相對平衡。

As always, this prospective can and will likely change as our customers seek ways to exploit their competitive advantage and market timing later in the year.

像往常一樣，隨著我們的客戶在今年稍後尋求利用其競爭優勢和市場時機的方法，這種前景可能會發生變化。

It seems that the perpetual bull-bear debate surrounds the sustainability of memory-based investments. In that context, we think it is worthy to note that associated with the emergence of cloud and connectivity, the 7-year cumulative annual growth rate for memory WFE is 15%, 10x greater than the comparable foundry logic WFE CAGR. Combined with the concentration to etch and deposition technologies, a strong memory business in the new data economy is a sustainable asset and not a liability from our perspective.

似乎關於基於記憶的投資的可持續性，一直存在著牛熊雙方的爭論。在此背景下，我們認為值得一提的是，隨著雲端運算和連接技術的出現，記憶體 WFE 的 7 年累積年增長率為 15%，是同類代工邏輯 WFE 的 10 倍。結合對蝕刻和沈積技術的專注，從我們的角度來看，在新數據經濟中，強大的記憶體業務是一項可持續的資產，而不是一項負債。

In addition, and perhaps still somewhat underappreciated is the strengthening of Lam business, the diversification of Lam business into foundry and logic. In only the 24-month period ending December 2018, we expect Lam shipments in these segments to grow 2x faster than the pace of the underlying foundry logic WFE. In short, we feel that the historic strength of Lam has never been more valuable. Further, the historic relative weakness of Lam is becoming much stronger.

此外，或許還有些被低估的是林氏業務的加強，以及林氏業務向鑄造和邏輯領域的多元化發展。僅在截至 2018 年 12 月的 24 個月期間，我們預計 Lam 在這些領域的出貨量成長速度將比底層代工邏輯 WFE 的成長速度快 2 倍。總之，我們認為林氏家族的歷史實力從未像現在這樣寶貴。此外，林氏歷史上相對弱勢的局面正在變得更加明顯。

In closing, we target outperforming overall industry growth again in calendar year 2018, and we are focused on successfully executing to our near and long-term objectives, growing SAM and increasing market share with an enhanced product and services portfolio. Strong March quarter performance is consistent with our expectations, and we remain pleased with the company's execution in financials in an overall healthy industry environment.

最後，我們的目標是在 2018 年再次超越整個行業的成長，我們將專注於成功實現我們的近期和長期目標，透過增強產品和服務組合來發展 SAM 並提高市場份額。強勁的3月季度業績符合我們的預期，在整體健康的產業環境下，我們對公司在財務方面的表現感到滿意。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Doug.

接下來，我會把電話交給道格。

Okay, great. Thank you, Martin. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We're very pleased with our results for the March quarter, delivering record levels in shipments, revenue and operating income dollars. Each of these items grew double-digit percentages sequentially from the December quarter. Execution from the company continues to remain very strong.

好的，太好了。謝謝你，馬丁。大家下午好。感謝您今天蒞臨。我們對三月季度的業績非常滿意，出貨量、收入和營業利潤均創歷史新高。這些項目均比去年12月季度實現了兩位數百分比的環比成長。公司執行力依然非常強勁。

Shipments for the quarter came in at $3.135 billion, which is up 19% sequentially and within the guided range.

本季出貨量為 31.35 億美元，季增 19%，符合預期範圍。

Shipments were up 30% year-over-year. Timing of shipments to certain new customer projects was a primary factor in our shipment profile coming in slightly below the midpoint. As we expected, memory shipments continued to grow in the quarter, with the combined memory segment making up 84% of total system shipments, and that compares to 77% in the previous quarter.

出貨量年增 30%。向某些新客戶項目發貨的時間表是導致我們發貨量略低於中位數的主要因素。正如我們預期的那樣，本季記憶體出貨量持續成長，記憶體部分佔系統總出貨量的 84%，而上一季則是 77%。

Our overall nonvolatile memory shipments remain very strong, representing approximately 57% of system shipments compared to 53% last quarter. DRAM shipments represented 27% of system shipments, which is up from 24% in prior quarter.

我們整體的非揮發性記憶體出貨量依然非常強勁，約佔系統出貨量的 57%，而上一季為 53%。DRAM 出貨量佔系統出貨量的 27%，高於上一季的 24%。

The NAND and DRAM markets continue to benefit from density growth as we transition to the new data-enabled economy. The foundry segment was down, accounting for 10% of system shipments relative to 15% of system shipments in December.

隨著我們向數據驅動型經濟轉型，NAND 和 DRAM 市場將繼續受益於密度成長。晶圓代工業務下滑，佔系統出貨量的 10%，而 12 月這一比例為 15%。

The logic and other segment contributed 6% of those system shipments compared to 8% in the prior quarter. And we would point out, we expect that both foundry and logic shipments will be stronger as we go through the remainder of this year.

邏輯和其他組件部分佔系統出貨量的 6%，而上一季這一比例為 8%。我們也要指出，我們預計今年剩餘時間裡，晶圓代工和邏輯晶片的出貨量都會更加強勁。

We delivered record revenue of $2.892 billion in the March quarter, which was an increase of 12% from December and above the midpoint of our guidance.

我們在 3 月季度實現了創紀錄的 28.92 億美元收入，比 12 月成長了 12%，高於我們預期的中點。

Gross margin for the period came in at 46.8%, which was down 80 basis points sequentially but towards the higher end of our guided range. And as we shared before, our actual gross margins are a function of several factors such as business volumes, product mix and customer concentration. And we expect to see variability on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

本期毛利率為 46.8%，季減 80 個基點，但接近我們預期範圍的上限。正如我們之前分享的那樣，我們的實際毛利率取決於多種因素，例如業務量、產品組合和客戶集中度。我們預計每季都會出現波動。

Operating expenses in the quarter grew to $486 million but decreased 60 basis points on a percentage basis to 16.8% of revenues.

本季營運支出成長至 4.86 億美元，但佔營收的百分比下降了 60 個基點，至 16.8%。

On a dollar basis, R&D spending and SG&A both increased sequentially, and we continue to have approximately 63% of our spending allocated to R&D. Investments in R&D are fundamental to driving long-term value creation for all of our stakeholders.

以美元計算，研發支出和銷售、一般及行政費用均較上季成長，我們繼續將約 63% 的支出分配給研發。對研發的投資對於推動為所有利害關係人創造長期價值至關重要。

Within the S&P 500 sectors, the semiconductor and equipment group ranked the highest in the percentage of R&D spend on average for the last several years. A strong R&D investment strategy is central to maintaining our technology leadership as we position the company to benefit from the multiple technology inflections and to deliver the growth that we highlighted during our Investor Day in March.

在標普 500 指數各產業中，半導體和設備產業在過去幾年研發支出平均佔比最高。強大的研發投資策略對於維持我們的技術領先地位至關重要，因為我們正在使公司能夠從多種技術變革中受益，並實現我們在 3 月投資者日上強調的成長目標。

Operating income in the March quarter came in at a record level of $867 million, which was up over 11% from the prior quarter. Operating margin came in at the high end of our guidance at 30% due to the stronger gross margin performance and slightly better operating expenses than we expected.

3 月季度的營業收入達到創紀錄的 8.67 億美元，比上一季成長超過 11%。由於毛利率表現強勁，且營運費用略好於預期，營業利潤率達到了我們預期的高端水平，為 30%。

Excluded from non-GAAP earnings are approximately $47 million in losses from the sale of investments in anticipation of cash repatriation under the recent U.S. tax reform. We are essentially liquidating our fixed income portfolio to enable the cash to come to the United States.

非GAAP收益中不包括因預期根據最近的美國稅收改革將現金匯回而出售投資所造成的約4700萬美元損失。我們實際上是在清算我們的固定收益投資組合，以便讓現金流入美國。

Our tax rate for the quarter was 1%. We expect the tax rate to be in the mid single-digit percentage range for the first half of calendar 2018, with high single-digit percentage for the June quarter. Now I'll just remind you, in the longer run, a tax rate in the middle teens remains the right level for you to include in your models.

本季稅率為1%。我們預計 2018 年上半年稅率將處於個位數百分比的中等水平，而 6 月季度的稅率將達到個位數百分比的高位。現在我只想提醒你，從長遠來看，十幾個百分點的稅率仍然是你模型中應該包含的合適水平。

Based on a share count of approximately 178 million shares, earnings per share for the March quarter were $4.79, above the high end of our guidance. The primary drivers of this upside versus our guidance were higher revenue, higher profitability, lower taxes and a lower share count.

根據約 1.78 億股的股數計算，3 月季度的每股盈餘為 4.79 美元，高於我們預期的上限。與我們先前的預期相比，此次業績上調的主要原因是收入增加、獲利能力提高、稅收減少和流通股數量減少。

The share count includes dilution from the 2018 and 2041 convertible notes, with the total dilutive impact being approximately 13 million shares on a non-GAAP basis.

股份數量包括 2018 年和 2041 年可轉換票據的稀釋，以非 GAAP 準則計算，總稀釋影響約為 1,300 萬股。

Total conversions that settled in the March quarter were $228 million, with $193 million related to the 2041 bond and the remainder related to the 2018 convertible note.

3 月季度結算的總轉換金額為 2.28 億美元，其中 1.93 億美元與 2041 年到期的債券有關，其餘部分與 2018 年到期的可轉換票據有關。

The dilution schedules for the 2018 and 2041 convertible notes are available on our Investor Relations website for your reference.

2018 年和 2041 年可轉換債券的稀釋時間表已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上，供您參考。

And just a reminder, at our Analyst Day in March, we announced the plan to return at least 50% of our free cash flow to stockholders over the next 5 years.

再次提醒大家，在三月的分析師日上，我們宣布了未來 5 年內將至少 50% 的自由現金流返還給股東的計畫。

This included a plan to increase quarterly dividends by 120% to $1.10 and an additional $2 billion share repurchase authorization for a total of $4 billion authorized since November of last year.

其中包括將季度股息提高 120% 至 1.10 美元的計劃，以及額外 20 億美元的股票回購授權，使自去年 11 月以來授權的股票回購總額達到 40 億美元。

At the end of the quarter, we had completed approximately 25% of the current $4 billion share repurchase authorization. This was primarily executed through an accelerated share repurchase program that is still ongoing. We're planning to complete our authorization over the next 12 to 18 months in tandem with the expected timing of our cash repatriation.

截至本季末，我們已完成目前 40 億美元股票回購授權的約 25%。這主要是透過一項加速股票回購計畫來實現的，該計畫目前仍在進行中。我們計劃在未來 12 至 18 個月內完成授權，這與我們的現金匯回預期時間同步進行。

During the quarter, we paid roughly $80 million in dividends. So now, let me switch to the balance sheet. Cash and short-term investments, including restricted cash, increased in the quarter to $6.7 billion compared to $6 billion at the end of the December quarter.

本季度，我們支付了約 8000 萬美元的股息。現在，讓我切換到資產負債表。本季現金及短期投資（包括受限現金）增至 67 億美元，而 12 月底季末為 60 億美元。

Approximately 87% of this total cash is still offshore. We do expect to be able to move some portion of the offshore cash to the United States during the June quarter.

其中約 87% 的現金仍在海外。我們預計能夠在六月的季度內將部分海外現金轉移到美國。

Cash from operations was slightly over $1 billion, up from $29 million in December. Cash generation was partially offset by our capital return programs and capital expenditures. Days sales outstanding decreased by 14 days to 66 days.

經營活動產生的現金流量略高於 10 億美元，高於 12 月的 2,900 萬美元。現金流部分被我們的資本回報計劃和資本支出所抵銷。應收帳款週轉天數減少了14天，降至66天。

You may recall me talking last quarter about the timing of certain collections falling just outside of the December quarter. All of those were collected in the March quarter. Inventory turns remain roughly consistent with the prior quarter at 3.7x.

您可能還記得我上個季度談到某些款項的收取時間正好在 12 月季度之外。所有這些數據都是在三月季度收集的。庫存週轉率與上一季基本持平，為 3.7 倍。

And as we mentioned in our December quarter earnings call, adoption of the ASC 606 new revenue recognition standard will start in the September quarter for Lam. We will provide additional clarity on the impact of the standard in our next earnings call, but I wanted to highlight that adoption of ASC 606 will make our revenue more closely aligned with the timing of shipments.

正如我們在 12 月季度收益電話會議上提到的那樣，Lam 公司將從 9 月季度開始採用 ASC 606 新收入確認標準。我們將在下次財報電話會議上進一步闡明該標準的影響，但我想強調的是，採用 ASC 606 將使我們的收入與出貨時間更加緊密地聯繫在一起。

Company noncash expenses included approximately $41 million each for equity comp, amortization and depreciation. Capital expenditures were $49 million, which was down from $85 million in the December quarter. And as a reminder, we expect CapEx in 2018 will be higher versus 2017 levels to support manufacturing network expansion and growth in strategic R&D investments.

公司非現金支出包括約 4,100 萬美元的股權補償、攤銷和折舊。資本支出為 4,900 萬美元，低於去年 12 月季度的 8,500 萬美元。再次提醒大家，我們預期 2018 年的資本支出將高於 2017 年的水平，以支持製造網絡擴張和策略研發投資的成長。

We exited the quarter with approximately 10,600 regular full time employees. The headcount additions were primarily in the factory and field with other additions in R&D.

本季末，我們約有 10,600 名正式全職員工。新增人員主要集中在工廠和現場，研發部門也有人員增加。

Now looking ahead, we'd like to provide our non-GAAP guidance for the June quarter.

展望未來，我們想提供6月季度的非GAAP業績指引。

We are expecting shipments of $3 billion, plus or minus $150 million. We expect continued strength in memory and slight growth in both foundry and logic. We're forecasting revenue of $3.1 billion, plus or minus $150 million; gross margin of 47.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point; operating margins of 31%, plus or minus 1 percentage point; and finally, earnings per share of $5, plus or minus $0.20, based on a share count of approximately 178 million shares.

我們預計出貨量為 30 億美元，上下浮動 1.5 億美元。我們預計記憶體業務將繼續保持強勁成長，而晶圓製造和邏輯電路業務將略有成長。我們預測營收為 31 億美元，上下浮動 1.5 億美元；毛利率為 47.5%，上下浮動 1 個百分點；營業利潤率為 31%，上下浮動 1 個百分點；最後，每股收益為 5 美元，上下浮動 0.20 美元，基於約 1.78 億股的股份數量。

We're pleased with our performance in the March quarter and with the guidance we just shared for the June quarter. We anticipate our shipments to be biased to the first half primarily due to heavier first half NAND spending by our customers. We expect comparatively more balanced to our revenues half-on-half. Overall, we continue to execute well by having the right products and making the right investments at the right time to take advantage of the technology inflections driving the transition to the new data economy.

我們對三月季度的業績以及剛發布的六月季度業績指引感到滿意。我們預計出貨量將主要集中在上半年，這主要是因為我們的客戶在上半年對 NAND 快閃記憶體的支出較大。我們預期收入將相對更加平衡，各佔一半。總體而言，我們透過在正確的時間推出正確的產品並進行正確的投資，繼續保持良好的執行力，從而利用推動向新數據經濟轉型的技術變革。

That concludes my prepared remarks. Operator, please open up the call for questions.

我的發言稿到此結束。接線員，請開啟提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

（操作說明）接下來，我們將回答來自 Evercore 公司的 C.J. Muse 的第一個問題。

I guess first question, clearly, a lot of debate around sustainability of memory and was hoping maybe you could help out in the DRAM side. As you think about shrinking at the next node, what kind of bit growth are you seeing overall for the industry? And what kind of new greenfield capacity do you think is required each and every year as we proceed from here?

我想問的第一個問題是，顯然，關於記憶體的可持續性有很多爭論，我希望您能就 DRAM 方面提供一些幫助。當您考慮在下一個節點縮小尺寸時，您認為整個產業的位元成長情況如何？那麼，您認為我們未來每年需要多少新的綠地產能？

That's a very precise question, C.J., each and every year. So I mean, I think the headline that you've just highlighted with your question is that we're at an inflection relative to the economics of DRAM in 2 respects. One of them is the cost of the investments. It costs more for bit density today than it did 5 years ago. But on the other side of that coin, the value proposition associated with what our customers are selling and what they're ultimately getting paid for those devices is dramatically different as well. And so the point that we try to make in our investor meeting, while it's true to say that our customers have never spent more money, it's also true to say that in many respects, they've never spent a smaller proportion of their profits. And so when we look at bit density per wafer out, it is obviously lower today than it was 5 years ago. But pricing stability in DRAM appears there, profits, for sure, are healthy in the memory community. Last time I looked, most of our customers were reporting 40% to 50% operating income levels. And I think when we look at the spending, to best of our abilities to figure out, C.J., it looks disciplined, it looks balanced, and it looks healthy in the context of how customers are executing with a prudent investment in additions and significant investments in conversions.

C.J.，這是一個非常精準的問題，每年都是如此。所以我的意思是，我認為你剛才的問題所突出的重點是，就 DRAM 的經濟性而言，我們正處於兩個方面的轉折點。其中之一是投資成本。如今，比特密度比5年前成本更高了。但另一方面，我們的客戶所銷售的產品的價值主張與他們最終從這些設備中獲得的報酬也截然不同。因此，我們在投資者會議上試圖表達的觀點是，雖然我們的客戶從未花過更多的錢，但從許多方面來說，他們花在產品上的利潤比例也從未如此之低。因此，當我們觀察每片晶圓的比特密度時，很明顯，如今的比特密度比 5 年前要低。但DRAM的價格似乎趨於穩定，記憶體產業的利潤肯定也很健康。據我上次了解，我們的大多數客戶報告的營業收入水準為 40% 至 50%。我認為，就我們所能分析的支出情況而言，C.J.，支出看起來很有紀律性，很平衡，而且考慮到客戶在新增產品方面謹慎投資，在轉換率方面進行大量投資，支出看起來很健康。

Very helpful. And as my follow-up, I guess, Doug, can you kind of walk through how you're expecting mix and gross margin to be impacted by mix as we move into the second half of the calendar year?

很有幫助。Doug，我想問的是，隨著我們進入下半年，你預計產品組合和毛利率會受到怎樣的影響？

C.J., we only really give guidance 1 quarter at a time. But what I'd suggest to you is, as I always do in my scripted remarks, gross margin will move around quarter-to-quarter depending on business volumes, product mix, customer concentration. And if I'd look at the last, I don't know, year or 2, we've bounced around between 46% and 47%, and that's kind of what we've got baked into the financial models. So that's probably a good signpost to use relative to how to think about it, C.J.

C.J.，我們通常一次只提供一季度的業績指引。但我建議你，就像我通常在演講稿中提到的那樣，毛利率會根據業務量、產品組合和客戶集中度而逐季波動。如果我回顧過去一兩年，我們一直在 46% 到 47% 之間波動，而這基本上就是我們財務模型中設定的數值。所以，C.J.，這可能是思考這個問題的一個好方向。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的維韋克·阿亞。

First one, Doug, I think you mentioned on shipments some timing of shipments came out of March went into June, if you could help quantify that. And then as we look into June, you're guiding to some small decline in shipments quarter-to-quarter, which I believe is somewhat different than the seasonal norm. If you could provide any color around that, it would be also useful.

首先，Doug，我想你提到過一些發貨時間是從三月持續到六月的，如果你能幫忙量化一下就太好了。然後，當我們展望六月時，您預計出貨量將環比略有下降，我認為這與季節性正常情況有所不同。如果能提供一些背景顏色就更好了。

Yes, Vivek, I mean, quite honestly, we missed the midpoint of guidance by $40 million, which honestly is 4 or 5 tools, when you think about it in the grand text of what's happening with our numbers. So as always, you've got things that shipped, then they move around every quarter. And I'm not really going to comment on any specific customer, but it was a pretty modest variance in terms of how to think about it.

是的，維韋克，我的意思是，坦白說，我們比預期中值少了 4000 萬美元，說實話，這相當於 4 到 5 個工具，當你從我們整體財務數據的角度來看待這個問題時，就會發現這一點微不足道。所以和往常一樣，有些東西已經發貨，然後每季都會有所變動。我不想對任何具體客戶發表評論，但就思考方式而言，這只是一個相當小的差異。

And I think on the seasonality component of the question, one of the themes of the investor meeting was the irony of a consolidating kind of customer base but a more diversified demand portfolio. And in transition away from kind of simple units to a density and the role that enterprise and cloud and data center has in the construct of this marketplace, I'm not sure any of us would agree what the headlines of seasonality are. I'm not sure I could articulate it. As a guy that's only been in this industry close to 20 years, I wouldn't be able to describe to you what seasonality is today because it's a dramatically different profile of demand for IC. And the discipline of our customers is very different today than what's true 10 years ago.

我認為，關於季節性因素，投資人會議的主題之一是客戶群趨於整合，但需求組合卻更加多元化，這本身就具有諷刺意味。隨著市場從簡單的單位向密度過渡，以及企業、雲端和資料中心在這個市場結構中所扮演的角色，我不確定我們當中是否有人會對季節性的重點內容達成一致意見。我不太確定我能不能把它表達清楚。作為一個入行不到 20 年的人，我無法向你描述如今的季節性是什麼，因為 IC 的需求模式已經發生了翻天覆地的變化。如今客戶的紀律與 10 年前相比已經大不相同了。

And as a follow-up, Martin, foundry contribution, only about 10% in March. I think probably one of the lowest levels you've seen. How do you think about that contribution on a qualitative basis as we move throughout the rest of the year and especially the pipeline ahead of some of the node migrations that your foundry customers are going to go through?

隨後，Martin 表示，3 月代工廠的貢獻僅佔 10% 左右。我想這可能是你見過的最低水平之一了。在今年剩餘的時間裡，尤其是在您的代工廠客戶即將進行一些節點遷移之前，您如何從定性角度看待這項貢獻？

Yes, I mean the foundry headline for the company is awesome. I mean it could be better. It can be more awesome, but we've made a significant amount of progress in the last couple of years. And I talked to that in my prepared comments that not only do I think we have a foundational strength from the memory presence in the company, but the diversification of foundry and logic is a strength that perhaps is a little underappreciated. The objective we have running the company is to ship products to customers when they ask for them, not early, not late. And so when you see these quarterly kind of movements, it really is nothing more than a customer's request. And frankly, I mean we would love to live in a world of perfectly calm and predictable and nonvariable world, but we don't. So we do the best we can to ship to customers when they ask for it. So there really is no headline associated with the 10% number that you referred to for the foundry, other than that just happened to be the schedule of the customer's request compared and contrasted with December and compared and contrasted with the June quarter. So the strength that we characterized is real, we believe sustainable, and we're working hard to make it even more valuable going forward.

是的，我的意思是，這家公司的鑄造廠宣傳語很棒。我的意思是，它還可以做得更好。雖然還可以更棒，但我們在過去幾年裡取得了顯著的進步。我在事先準備好的評論中也談到了這一點，我認為我們不僅擁有公司在記憶體領域的雄厚實力，而且晶圓製造和邏輯電路的多元化也是一項可能被低估的優勢。我們公司的目標是在客戶提出要求時立即發貨，既不提前也不延遲。因此，當你看到這些季度性的變動時，這其實只不過是客戶的要求而已。坦白說，我們都希望生活在一個完全平靜、可預測且不變的世界裡，但現實並非如此。因此，我們會盡最大努力在客戶提出要求時發貨。所以，你提到的代工廠的 10% 這個數字實際上並沒有什麼特別的標題，只是碰巧是客戶要求的進度與 12 月份和 6 月份的季度進行了比較和對比。因此，我們所展現的優勢是真實存在的，我們相信這種優勢是可持續的，並且我們正在努力使其在未來更有價值。

And for the group, we expect foundry will grow as we go through the year as well, just to reiterate a comment I had in my script.

對於集團而言，我們預計鑄造業務也會在今年持續成長，這再次重申了我劇本中的一段話。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Martin, I was hoping you could provide an update on China. I think there have been a couple of media reports recently about some of your customers winning real business for the first time and some of your customers planning on ramping capacity later this year and to 2019. So it does feel like we are getting closer to a decently sized ramp, if you will. So I guess the question is, what are you seeing in terms of bookings today? And what are your expectations over the next 12 to 18 months?

馬丁，我希望你能提供關於中國的最新情況。我認為最近有幾篇媒體報導提到，你們的一些客戶首次贏得了真正的業務，還有一些客戶計劃在今年晚些時候到 2019 年提高產能。所以感覺我們離建造一個像樣的坡道越來越近了。所以我想問的是，您今天看到的預訂情況如何？您對未來 12 至 18 個月有何預期？

Yes, actually, I think our expectation today is almost exactly the same to the expectation that we started the year with, maybe even had almost a year ago. I mean we believe in the vision that's being articulated, and we see our customers investing to build competency, capability and know-how to go execute that vision. And indeed, we're aware that customers have reported real end customer business and output that presumably legitimizes this. So going back to where we started this conversation in -- earlier in the year, we expect a couple billion dollars of incremental WFE this year in China. And that represents 10%, 12% or so of the overall WFE kind of marketplace. So the bulk of the industry is still outside of China. And obviously, included in China is the global company investment, as well as the domestic community. So I would say it continues to appear like there is steady progress.

是的，實際上，我認為我們今天的預期幾乎與年初的預期完全相同，甚至可能與一年前的預期完全相同。我的意思是，我們相信所闡述的願景，我們也看到我們的客戶正在投資，以建立能力、技能和專業知識，從而實現這一願景。事實上，我們了解到客戶已經報告了真實的終端客戶業務和產出，這大概可以證明這一點。所以回到我們今年早些時候開始討論的話題——我們預計今年中國將新增數十億美元的WFE（工作場所支出）。這大約佔整個 WFE 類市場的 10% 到 12%。因此，該行業的大部分仍然在中國以外。顯然，中國既包括全球公司投資，也包括國內社區。所以我覺得目前看來，進展似乎很順利。

Okay, great. And then as my follow-up, I was hoping you guys can talk a little bit about the ALD opportunity longer term. I think you touched on the subject briefly at your Investor Day. But if you could remind us how you size the opportunity set longer term and if you can talk a little bit about the competitive landscape there, that would be helpful as well.

好的，太好了。然後，作為我的後續問題，我希望你們能談談ALD的長期發展機會。我認為您在投資者日上已經簡要地談到了這個話題。但是，如果您能提醒我們您是如何評估長期機會的，並且能談談那裡的競爭格局，那也將對我們有所幫助。

Yes, I mean I think we've obviously articulated, not just for the deposition business unit but also for the etch business unit, the importance of control and repeatability and opening up process windows for our customers, and atomic level processing is an important part of delivering that. There are other significant challenges for our customers, not least aspect ratios, but atomic level processing is increasingly relevant to the success of the company and the success of the customers. So it's a big investment. It's one of the biggest areas of competitive momentum. We don't actually characterize in any detail the proportion of WFE that we think is directly assignable because we obviously have competitive sensitivity to that. But I think we've got fundamental differentiation on technology and productivity, and the engagement with the customers is comprehensive, and I'm pretty pleased with the momentum we have.

是的，我的意思是，我認為我們已經明確闡述了控制和可重複性的重要性，不僅對於沉積業務部門，而且對於蝕刻業務部門也是如此，並為我們的客戶打開工藝窗口，而原子級加工是實現這一目標的重要組成部分。我們的客戶也面臨其他重大挑戰，尤其是縱橫比，但原子級加工對於公司的成功和客戶的成功越來越重要。所以這是一筆很大的投資。這是競爭最激烈的領域之一。我們實際上並沒有詳細描述我們認為可以直接分配的 WFE 比例，因為我們顯然對此非常敏感。但我認為我們在技術和生產力方面擁有根本性的差異化優勢，與客戶的互動也十分全面，我對我們目前的發展勢頭相當滿意。

Our next question comes from Romit Shah with Nomura Instinet.

下一個問題來自野村證券的 Romit Shah。

Martin, I definitely appreciate your comment around just DRAM spending looking balanced and disciplined, but seeing that shipments here are up over 30% sequentially and 50% year-on-year, I mean obviously realize that higher cost per bit is a factor. But what level do you become concerned that your DRAM customers are adding too much capacity?

Martin，我非常讚賞你關於DRAM支出看起來平衡且有紀律的評論，但考慮到這裡的出貨量環比增長超過30%，同比增長超過50%，我的意思是，顯然要意識到每比特成本的增加是一個因素。但是，當DRAM客戶的容量增加到什麼程度時，您會開始擔心呢？

I would say I would be concerned that our customers are adding too much capacity if the analytics in our company in terms of end use demand concluded that there was a dramatic imbalance, and we have no evidence of that. I mean we're trying to articulate, and our perspective may not be the best. That's a choice obviously that you have to make, but we do our best to analyze kind of end markets and when we look at bit demand and bit consensus and then the construct of the market and isolate, for example, a 45% server bit growth assumption in DRAM, and that's the impact on investment levels and to the best of our abilities, understand bit per wafer and the investment choices for customers between conversions and additions, we end up in the same place that our customers are articulating plans. And so it's less to do with how big the number is, in my opinion, and much more to do with whether it correlates to the statement of demand.

如果公司內部對終端用戶需求的分析得出結論，認為存在嚴重的供需失衡，而我們目前又沒有證據表明存在這種情況，那麼我會擔心我們的客戶增加了過多的產能。我的意思是，我們正在努力表達，但我們的觀點可能並非最佳。這顯然是您必須做出的選擇，但我們會盡力分析終端市場，當我們觀察比特需求和比特共識，以及市場結構，並假設DRAM伺服器比特增長45%時，就會發現這對投資水平的影響。我們會盡最大努力了解每片晶圓的位元數以及客戶在轉換和新增之間的投資選擇，最終我們會發現，我們的客戶正在製定的計劃與此相同。因此，在我看來，這與數字的大小關係不大，而與它是否與需求報表相關關係更大。

As well as affordability, Romit. As you know, I mean DRAM revenue and profits are at all-time record levels.

除了價格實惠之外，還有羅米特。如你所知，DRAM 的收入和利潤都達到了歷史最高水準。

Yes, got it, helpful. And then could you also just talk about what's happening in logic? You've -- or at least, my understanding is you have a very strong position at 10-nanometer and certainly a better position than you did at the previous node. And we've seen revenues in this category run up last year. You had a very strong Q3 but shipments down the last couple of quarters. And I think you mentioned that logic was a little weaker than you anticipated in the first quarter.

明白了，很有幫助。那麼，您能否也談談邏輯學方面正在發生的事情？至少據我了解，你們在 10 奈米製程節點上擁有非常強大的地位，而且肯定比上一個節點上的地位要好。去年我們看到該類別的收入大幅成長。你們第三季業績非常強勁，但最近幾季的出貨量有所下降。我想你也提到過，第一季邏輯的表現比你預期的弱一些。

Yes, I don't know that it's particularly material in the long term. Again, I go back to my answer to the earlier question in foundries. I mean all we try to do, if I'm very direct and honest, is ship product to customers when they ask for it, not earlier and not late. And that's our focus and that's a priority. So you're going to see up and down as customers adjust schedules, and most of the time, we get that right fairly well to our midpoint guidance, and we almost always get it correct in our range, in fact, I think always in our range. So I mean I don't think we're doing a bad job signaling here. But it's just a matter of the timing of investments by customers, and that goes left and right and up and down, and we just roll on through it. The focus of the company to where you started is making sure that we have a product portfolio that's more relevant to our logic and foundry customers and to making sure that we're gaining more market share. And in microprocessors and foundry both, hopefully, we've been effective at communicating pretty positive market share momentum in the last couple of years.

是的，我不認為從長遠來看它特別重要。我再次重申我之前在鑄造廠問題上的答案。我的意思是，坦白說，我們所做的就是在客戶提出要求時立即發貨，既不提前也不延遲。這就是我們的關注重點，也是我們的首要任務。因此，隨著客戶調整日程安排，價格會有波動，大多數時候，我們都能很好地將價格控制在中間指導價附近，而且我們幾乎總能將價格控制在合理範圍內，事實上，我認為總是能控制在合理範圍內。所以我的意思是，我認為我們在這裡發出的信號並不差。但這只是客戶投資時機的問題，而投資時機總是起起伏伏，我們只能順其自然。公司從你起步時開始，重點就是確保我們的產品組合與我們的邏輯晶片和代工廠客戶更加相關，並確保我們獲得更大的市場份額。在微處理器和晶圓代工領域，希望我們在過去幾年中已經有效地傳達了相當積極的市場份額成長勢頭。

And Romit, the only other thing I'd add on that is I do think probably when you look at the logic shipments through the course of 2018, it will go up from where it is in March.

羅米特，我唯一要補充的是，我認為如果你觀察 2018 年全年的邏輯電路出貨量，它可能會比 3 月份的水平有所上升。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

As a follow-up to the prior questions on DRAM, maybe a different way of asking the question is if the team can help us quantify some of the reviews. Overall DRAM industry capacity has been trending about 1.1 million wafer starts per month and relatively flattish for the past several years. The market has been getting nervous in the amount of announced DRAM CapEx spend, announcement of new fab expansion products -- projects, but a lot of it, I think, is just to offset capacity declines and technology conversion and just to maintain a stable bit supply output. So wanted to get your views on how much you see total industry capacity growing this year.

作為先前關於 DRAM 問題的後續，或許可以換個方式提問：團隊能否幫助我們量化一些評論？過去幾年，DRAM 產業的整體產能一直維持在每月 110 萬片晶圓開工量左右，並且相對穩定。市場對已公佈的 DRAM 資本支出金額、新晶圓廠擴建產品項目等消息感到緊張，但我認為，其中許多只是為了抵消產能下降和技術轉換帶來的影響，以及維持穩定的比特供應量。所以我想了解大家對今年產業總產能成長的看法。

So I 100% agree with what you articulated in terms of the rationale for investments, whether it's addition or conversion. I mean it's for demand, and it's the consequence of capital intensity relative to the incremental bits of various kind of nodes transition. So I mean I'm in exactly the same place -- we're in exactly the same place that you articulated in your question. Unfortunately, in a world of very few customers today, it's almost impossible for an equipment company to answer directly the question that you just asked. It's too competitively sensitive for our customers. So with due respect, I have to ask you to ask them. But what I will say is we do see a modest increase in capacity in DRAM associated with the driver of demand to the consensus of the kind of low to mid-20 bit growth number that everybody seems to kind of talk about these days. And it seems like it's perfectly relevant to the choices that our customers are making. So unfortunately, quantification has to come from them. Best I can tell you is it appears modest and balanced and rational.

所以我完全同意你對投資理由的闡述，無論是新增投資或轉換投資。我的意思是，這是需求的結果，是資本密集度相對於各種節點過渡增量的結果。所以我的意思是，我和你的情況完全一樣——我們的情況和你問題中表達的情況完全一樣。遺憾的是，在如今客戶寥寥無幾的情況下，設備公司幾乎不可能直接回答你剛才提出的問題。這涉及到太多競爭敏感訊息，對我們的客戶來說太敏感了。所以，恕我直言，我不得不請您去問他們。但我想說的是，我們確實看到 DRAM 產能略有成長，這與需求驅動因素相符，成長幅度在 20 位左右，這也是大家最近似乎都在談論的成長幅度。這似乎與我們客戶所做的選擇完全相關。所以很遺憾，量化結果必須由他們來提供。我只能說，它看起來謙遜、平衡、理性。

Great. Doug, a question for you. Great job on the strong free cash flow. Almost, I think, 35% free cash flow margin in the March quarter, although you did tell us that you were going to play some catch-up here versus the weaker December quarter. But at a high level, going back to last earnings call and Analyst Day, let's assume that you can maintain operating margins in sort of the 30%, 31% plus range this year. We would anticipate free cash flow margins for the full calendar year in the range of about 26% to 27% for the full year. Is that kind of the right way to think about it?

偉大的。道格，我有個問題想問你。自由現金流強勁，做得好！我認為，3 月季度的自由現金流利潤率接近 35%，儘管您曾告訴我們，您打算彌補 12 月季度的疲軟表現。但從宏觀層面來看，回顧上次財報電話會議和分析師日，我們假設今年的營業利潤率可以維持在 30%、31% 以上。我們預計全年自由現金流利潤率將在 26% 至 27% 左右。這樣想對嗎？

Yes, that's the right way to think about it, Harlan I mean CapEx in the model in terms of how we think about it is 3% to 4% of revenue typically, so yes, that's what the company had in the model we gave in March.

是的，哈蘭，這才是正確的思考方式。我的意思是，按照我們的理解，模型中的資本支出通常佔收入的 3% 到 4%，所以是的，這就是公司在 3 月我們給出的模型中的情況。

Our next question comes from Farhan Ahmad with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad。

Doug, we saw a lot of volatility in the share prices in the March quarter so a bit surprised that we didn't see more significant buybacks. Can you just talk about what are some of the variables that you think about in terms of buying back the shares? Is there any constraints that stopped you from buying more?

道格，我們在三月的季度中看到了股價的劇烈波動，所以我們有點驚訝沒有看到更大規模的股票回購。能否談談回購股票時，您會考慮哪些因素？有什麼限制因素阻止您購買更多嗎？

Well, the primary thing relative to the $4 billion authorization is just availability of cash domestically. 87% of the cash that the company has still is domiciled outside the United States. It takes time to move that around. We've taken step one of that in terms of beginning to liquidate the portfolio, but there's administrative paperwork to dividend things up and down the tax structure to get the cash, and that's the primary thing that we need to have. We need the cash before we can buy significant stock, and that will come over the next 12 months. Look, almost all of the cash will be available by the end of the year.

嗯，就這 40 億美元的授權而言，最主要的問題是國內現金的可用性。該公司87%的現金仍存放在美國境外。搬運這些東西需要時間。我們已經踏出了第一步，開始清算投資組合，但還需要辦理一些行政手續，才能透過稅收結構上下分配股息，從而獲得現金，這是我們最主要的需求。我們需要先獲得現金才能大量購入股票，而這筆資金將在未來 12 個月內到位。你看，到年底前幾乎所有的現金都能到位。

And I think in the context of the question, it's also really important to emphasize kind of the long-term vision for the company that we talked about at the investor meeting, which is the redistribution of 50% of free cash flow generated over the long term, and nothing new to say today. So it's a transactional moment in time, but the long-term commitment, I think, is the important message.

我認為，就這個問題而言，同樣重要的是要強調我們在投資者會議上談到的公司長期願景，即在長期內重新分配 50% 的自由現金流，今天沒有什麼新內容要說。所以這只是一個暫時的交易時刻，但我認為，長期的承諾才是最重要的訊息。

Got it. And then one question on the NAND CapEx. At the beginning of the year, you had talked about NAND CapEx being kind of modestly up this year and DRAM being up more significant. If I look at your March quarter shipments, it's up a lot, and I was just wondering if your outlook in NAND has changed in any way in terms of the overall CapEx spending this year.

知道了。然後還有一個關於NAND快閃記憶體資本支出的問題。年初的時候，你曾說過今年 NAND 快閃記憶體的資本支出只會略有成長，而 DRAM 的資本支出成長幅度更大。如果我看一下你們三月的季度出貨量，會發現成長了很多，我只是想知道，就今年的整體資本支出而言，你們對 NAND 的展望是否有所改變。

Not really. It's more or less the same today as it was kind of 3 months ago. Kind of what you're seeing is the first half bias, which Doug talked about in his prepared comments. More or less the investment that we expected is the one that seems to be playing out. And any 1 month or any 1 week or any 1 quarter, it can go left or right a little bit but pretty much where we expected it to be, and no fundamental messages in terms of kind of bit growth that are different from the consensus. And maybe the only incremental thing I would say is our expectations of investments this year would kind of lead to approximately a similar level of shipped capacity not yet qualified at the end of '18 to the level that existed in '17, which said differently means the same level of discipline at the end of the year that existed at the beginning of the year.

並不真地。情況和三個月前差不多。你現在看到的其實是前半部偏見，道格在他的準備好的評論中也談到了這一點。基本上，我們預期的投資正在逐步實現。任何一個月、任何一周或任何一個季度，價格都可能略有波動，但基本上都在我們預期的範圍內，而且在比特增長方面，也沒有任何與普遍預期不同的基本面資訊。我唯一要補充的是，我們預計今年的投資將使 2018 年底尚未獲得認證的出貨產能與 2017 年的水平大致相當，換句話說，這意味著年底的紀律水平與年初的紀律水平相同。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

To ask a slightly annoying question, I guess, that people are asking me as well. You said in the last call that you thought that the shipment levels would be relatively balanced through the year. They're down a little bit in Q2. They're going to be down a little bit in the second half. Is that just -- at the noise level, I realize it's a -- these are very small changes. Has anything changed in terms of the way you see the pattern that you see through the year?

我想問一個有點煩人的問題，我想，這個問題也是別人問我的。您在上次通話中提到，您認為全年的出貨量水準將保持相對平衡。第二季度略有下滑。下半場他們可能會稍微落後一些。只是——就噪音水平而言，我意識到——這些都是非常小的變化。就你觀察全年趨勢的方式而言，有什麼改變嗎？

Not really. I mean -- and I don't want to sound dismissive about the short term, but again, in context, whether it's in the context of the answer to the shipments kind of midpoint question or the difference between what we said last time and what we said this time, I think it's the same message in slightly different words, and none of it changes, in our opinion, the long-term opportunity and the importance of investing for long term and the potential that we described in the investor meeting. So from the inside out, this is transactional noise more than anything fundamental. And if that changes, we'll tell you, but that's about it right now.

並不真地。我的意思是——我不想顯得對短期前景不屑一顧，但話說回來，無論是在回答有關出貨量的中期問題時，還是在我們上次和這次所說內容的差異中，我認為意思都是一樣的，只是措辭略有不同。在我們看來，這一切都不會改變長期機會、長期投資的重要性以及我們在投資者會議上所描述的潛力。所以從本質上講，這更多的是交易噪音，而不是任何根本性的問題。如果情況有變，我們會通知您，但目前就這些了。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的Timothy Arcuri。

I had 2 questions, guys. First on China trade -- well, actually both of them on China trade. First of all, is there the potential -- or is there any precedent for the government to restrict exports of equipment into China?

各位，我有兩個問題。首先是中國貿易——實際上，他們兩個都談到了中國貿易。首先，政府是否有可能限制向中國出口設備，或有任何先例？

Well, we've lived in that world before, and it wasn't, I would say, a fundamental restriction. It just made the process of doing business in China more bureaucratic. We have to file for licenses and so on and so forth. And so there is precedent for U.S. export restrictions of technology, not so much into semiconductor but into semiconductor when there was a dual use that the Defense Department or the Commerce Department were trying to manage. Maybe if I take the essence of your question and go somewhere beyond it precisely to kind of a conversation about tariffs, we don't see an impact today on our business or on our customers' business or on our industry that would cause us to say that there is a new kind of long-term message. But we're attentive to 2 very important things. If tariffs start to be disruptive to consumer confidence, that has an impact in the global economy, and it will eventually impact semiconductors and in turn, equipment, and we're attentive to domestic equipment company agendas as well. And I am not seeing that today, but if things got a little bit tit-for-tat, then there are obviously risks at a minimum that we need to be attentive to. But at the end of the day, there's a fundamental value proposition that comes from every equipment company that's 30 years or 40 years old and that we win business, and we enable based on that expertise, competency and know-how. So I'm not seeing kind of risks today, but we're attentive to the 2 things that we've just -- that I've just described: attentive to consumer confidence changes and attentive to domestic equipment company agendas.

嗯，我們以前也活在那樣的世界裡，我認為，那並不是根本的限制。這只是讓在中國做生意的過程更官僚了。我們需要申請許可證等等等等。因此，美國有限制技術出口的先例，雖然並非針對半導體，而是針對國防部或商務部試圖管控的具有兩用性的半導體。也許如果我抓住你問題的本質，進一步探討關稅問題，我們目前看不到關稅對我們的業務、客戶的業務或我們所在的行業產生任何影響，因此我們認為存在一種新的長期趨勢。但我們關注兩件非常重要的事情。如果關稅開始擾亂消費者信心，這將對全球經濟產生影響，最終會影響半導體，進而影響設備，我們也密切關注國內設備公司的動向。我今天並沒有看到這種情況，但如果事態發展到針鋒相對的地步，那麼顯然至少存在一些我們需要注意的風險。但歸根結底，每家擁有 30 年或 40 年歷史的設備公司都有一個基本的價值主張，我們憑藉這種價值主張贏得業務，並實現業務成長。所以，我今天沒有看到任何風險，但我們會關注我剛才描述的兩件事：關註消費者信心的變化和關注國內設備公司的議程。

Got it, Martin. And then just there seems to be a school of thought that maybe this could accelerate the pace of the buildout of some of these indigenous projects. I mean they seem pretty rational and pretty return-focused, but have you seen any signs that they may want to pull forward some of the time lines because of some potential down the road for this to evolve into something that's bigger than it is today?

明白了，馬丁。而且似乎也有一種觀點認為，這或許可以加快一些本土計畫的建設步伐。我的意思是，他們看起來相當理性，也相當注重回報，但你有沒有看到任何跡象表明，他們可能因為未來這個項目有發展成比現在更大的規模而想要提前一些時間表？

No.

不。

Our next question comes from Edwin Mok with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Edwin Mok。

First, my question is on foundry. Just to clarify your comment, you said that the foundry CapEx you expect to be largely in line with 2017. Is that correct? I've seen more conversion from 10 to 7-nanometer. I would expect maybe a slight decline on foundry. And then kind of looking beyond this year, kind of based on how you guys look at demand and the foundry capacity, do you see a scenario where the foundry spending can potentially grow beyond this year?

首先，我的問題是關於鑄造的。為了澄清你的評論，你曾說過你預計代工廠的資本支出將與 2017 年基本持平。是這樣嗎？我見過更多從 10 奈米到 7 奈米的轉換。我預計鑄造業可能會略有下滑。展望今年之後，根據你們對需求和代工廠產能的看法，你們認為代工廠支出是否有可能在今年之後繼續成長？

I think we started the year with a kind of flat to slightly down kind of commentary for foundry year-over-year, and no change today. And I think if I heard the second part of your question, it relates to whether there's upside, did I get it correct?

我認為年初時，鑄造業同比走勢基本持平甚至略有下滑，今天的情況也沒有改變。我想我理解的你問題的第二部分是關於是否有上漲空間，我理解對嗎？

Yes. Is there upside either late on this year or during 2018, there are some speculations that 7-nanometer being a big node.

是的。今年稍後或 2018 年期間是否有上漲空間？有人猜測 7 奈米是一個大節點。

I mean I'd say maybe. I mean we're doing our best to articulate what we think is likely to happen, and the maybe is interwoven in this conversation around advanced computes as a component of this value proposition in AI and data economy. And it serves no purpose to have a great cloud with great storage and great memory without great competition. So if the value proposition accelerates, then I think it is an industrywide opportunity. But in the context of the pilot line timings that we understand with our customers of 5-nanometer, the investments in 7 and 10 that are planned, the outlook that we've described is the best we have to offer right now.

我的意思是，我覺得也許吧。我的意思是，我們正在盡最大努力闡明我們認為可能發生的事情，而「也許」則交織在圍繞先進計算的討論中，先進計算是人工智慧和數據經濟價值主張的一個組成部分。如果沒有激烈的競爭，擁有強大的雲端平台、巨大的儲存空間和強大的記憶體也毫無意義。因此，如果這種價值主張能夠加速發展，我認為這將是一個全產業的機會。但就我們與客戶了解的 5 奈米試點生產線進度，以及計劃對 7 奈米和 10 奈米進行的投資而言，我們所描述的前景是我們目前所能提供的最佳前景。

Our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Two follow-ups. You mentioned your revenue for the second half of calendar year is more balanced with the first half, and we have the revenue for the first half. Does that suggest that we should assume a quarterly revenue that starts with a 3 handle for the September and December quarter?

兩次後續跟進。您提到下半年的收入與上半年更平衡，而我們有上半年的收入數據。這是否意味著我們應該假設 9 月和 12 月季度的季度收入以 3 開頭？

No, Mehdi, not necessarily. Relative balance could be plus or minus 51-49 something like that. It's -- I'm not giving you guidance for every quarter through the rest of the year right now. The comment was -- Martin described shipments low 50s, high 40s half-on-half. My comment was revenue would be a little bit more balanced than that.

不，邁赫迪，不一定。相對平衡值可能在正負 51 到 49 之間，類似這樣的範圍。我現在無法提供今年剩餘時間每季的指導意見。馬丁評論說，出貨量在 50 件出頭和 40 件出頭之間，各佔一半。我的評論是，收入狀況會比這更平衡一些。

Sure, sure. In terms of guidance, let me go back to some of the commentaries from the Analyst Day. Obviously, we have been debating sustainability of memory spend since your shipment hit $1 billion target, and now we're at the $3 billion. And sustainability of memory spend keeps coming up. In the meantime, your revenues are actually diversifying. You have recently started to highlight the services mix and especially with the new tool shipped to the NAND customers, there's a higher services content. And if you really believe in a new paradigm shift, why can't you help us to better model and kind of shift away from these seasonality, where if I take your shipment for the March quarter, analyze it, that would suggest shipments up well over 20% for the year? And perhaps maybe some additional color on the revenue mix could better help us move away from this seasonality that's been just lingering.

當然，當然。在指導方面，我想回顧分析師日的一些評論。顯然，自從你們的出貨量達到 10 億美元目標以來，我們一直在討論記憶支出的可持續性，而現在我們已經達到了 30 億美元。內存支出的可持續性問題也一直被提及。同時，你的收入來源實際上正在多元化。您最近開始強調服務組合，特別是隨著向 NAND 客戶交付的新工具，服務含量更高。如果你真的相信新的典範轉移，為什麼不能幫助我們更好地建立模型，擺脫這些季節性因素呢？如果我分析一下你們三月的出貨量，就會發現全年出貨量應該會增加超過 20%？或許，對收入組成進行更詳細的分析，可以更好地幫助我們擺脫這種持續存在的季節性影響。

I'm not sure exactly what you're referring to seasonality, Mehdi. I mean at the end of the day, shipments and revenue mix would be exactly the same. One is timing, right? Shipments sometimes happens sooner than revenues. So at the end of the day, it all normalizes to the same thing, which is why we give you the shipment color the way we do.

邁赫迪，我不太明白你說的季節性具體指的是什麼。我的意思是，歸根結底，出貨量和收入結構將完全相同。一是時機，對吧？發貨有時比收入到帳先發生。所以歸根結底，一切都歸結為同一件事，這就是為什麼我們以這種方式向您提供發貨顏色。

I would say -- if I can just add one more thing. I would say, I mean for anybody on the call at any point in time listening to Lam Research, if you have recommendations on specific disclosure that you think would be helpful, if we feel like we can do it in the context of respecting our customers and if we can do it in the context of preserving competitive advantage, we have every motivation to do that. So we're doing the best we can to articulate an outlook and an opportunity and risk and so on and so forth. And if you have specific recommendations, please make them offline, and we'll do the best we can.

我想說——如果我能再補充一點的話。我想說，對於任何時候參與電話會議並收聽 Lam Research 發言的任何人，如果您對具體的披露事項有任何建議，認為會有幫助，如果我們覺得可以在尊重客戶的前提下做到這一點，並且能夠在保持競爭優勢的前提下做到這一點，那麼我們完全有動力這樣做。所以我們正在盡最大努力闡明前景、機會和風險等等。如果您有任何具體建議，請私下提出，我們會盡力而為。

Does your shipment represent services, spares and parts? Or is it just a system?

您的貨物是否包含服務、備用零件和零件？或者它只是一個系統？

When I give you the color on the percentages every quarter, Mehdi, I specifically say system shipments, so it's system.

Mehdi，我每季給你看百分比的顏色時，都會刻意說明是系統出貨量，所以是系統。

Right. So if you're going to realize $1 billion of incremental revenue from services, that won't be captured by shipment, and that's what could become a difference looking forward.

正確的。因此，如果你要從服務中獲得 10 億美元的增量收入，這筆收入是無法透過出貨量獲得的，而這可能會在未來產生影響。

Yes, potentially. Yes.

是的，有可能。是的。

Right. That's not a good suggestion with the guide?

正確的。這對於指南來說不是個好建議吧？

We'll consider. We'll think about how we can give you a better understanding on what's going on with services, which I think at the end of the day is what you're asking for, right?

我們會考慮。我們會考慮如何讓您更了解服務方面的情況，我認為這最終也是您所要求的，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

All right. We'll think about it, and offline, if you want to share with us what would be helpful to you, that would help us think about it.

好的。我們會考慮一下，如果您願意在線下與我們分享什麼對您有幫助，那將有助於我們思考這個問題。

Our next question comes from Atif Malik with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的阿提夫·馬利克。

I just want to go back to the shipment miss relative to Street and your midpoint of expectation and the timing of the project. Can you share with us if there is one end market that's responsible for this $40 million shortfall Is it more foundry? Or is it more NAND?

我只想回到發貨延遲與街道、您的預期中點以及項目時間表之間的關係上來。您能否告知我們，造成這 4000 萬美元缺口的終端市場是哪一個？是代工廠嗎？或者它更像是NAND快閃記憶體？

Atif, as you can appreciate, we have a very small set of customers, and giving you more color than just timing of certain projects, with certain customer projects, is probably the best we can do for you.

Atif，你應該能理解，我們的客戶群非常小，除了某些客戶專案的具體時間安排之外，我們能為你提供的更多細節可能就是我們能做的最好的事情了。

Okay. And then as a follow-up, just broadly speaking, can you share with us your executions on the timing of the 92, 96 layer 3D NAND for the industry versus the 64 layer NAND migration? When should we expect the majority of the NAND makers moving to 92, 96 layer NAND?

好的。然後，作為後續問題，您能否大致談談貴公司在92層、96層3D NAND面向行業的上市時間安排，以及與64層NAND向行業遷移的時間安排方面的情況？我們應該何時才能看到大多數 NAND 快閃記憶體製造商轉向 92 層、96 層 NAND 快閃記憶體？

I think the best we can do is refer you back to the Flash Memory Summit presentation we made last year, which to the best of my recollection, details all of our assumptions in terms of phases of development for NAND flash. And rather be selective to one and risking being inconsistent with that, I'd ask you to kind of go back to that disclosure. And if there's a remaining question, then please follow-up with Satya.

我認為我們能做的最好的就是請您回顧一下我們去年在閃存峰會上所做的演講，據我所知，該演講詳細介紹了我們對 NAND 閃存發展階段的所有假設。與其選擇性地披露訊息，冒著前後矛盾的風險，我更希望你回到之前的披露方式。如果還有其他問題，請聯絡 Satya。

Our next question comes from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Patrick Ho。

Martin, maybe first off, in terms of the foundry, logic commentary you detailed, given a lot of the noise out there surrounding EUV, can you detail from a Lam perspective how you -- what application and what new areas do see for both etch and deposition that are helping you grow that served available market in spite of, I guess, some of the bear concerns about EUV reducing the capital intensity of those 2 processes?

Martin，首先，就代工廠而言，鑑於你之前詳細闡述的邏輯評論，考慮到目前圍繞 EUV 的諸多爭議，你能否從 Lam 的角度詳細說明一下，你認為蝕刻和沈積在哪些應用和新領域能夠幫助你拓展現有市場，儘管我猜想，有人擔心 EUV 會降低這兩種工藝的資本密集度？

Well, I guess at a very basic level, we've attempted for the last several years to articulate a set of assumptions, which I think are generally consistent with the assumptions that our customers communicate and the assumptions that ASML will communicate around adoption of EUV. And using those assumptions, we've attempted to communicate this through the 5-nanometer transition our SAM increases in etch and deposition. So I would say the first part of answering the question is, we have articulated to the best of our ability increasing SAM through 5 nanometer, and we'll see what integration schemes show up with 3 before answering that question. In addition to that, the company is making a very specific set of investments, and you've seen one of them quite publicly, or maybe 2 of them quite publicly, but I'll pick one of them now, and that's the world of advanced equipment process control. So we've articulated incremental SAM that we're targeting for the purposes of delivering more control in process and more repeatability, more uniformity, so on and so forth. And that is directly relevant to foundry and microprocessor opportunities for the company as well. And I'm not going to go into details, but we have 3 or 4 pretty significant SAM expansion objectives above and beyond the inflections we've been talking about for the last several years. And that's all obviously incorporated in the long-term financial models that we presented a few weeks ago.

嗯，我想從最基本的層面來說，在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在嘗試闡明一系列假設，我認為這些假設與我們的客戶所傳達的假設以及 ASML 將圍繞 EUV 的採用所傳達的假設總體上是一致的。基於這些假設，我們試圖透過 5 奈米轉變來傳達這一訊息，即我們的 SAM 在蝕刻和沈積過程中增加。所以，我認為回答這個問題的第一部分是，我們已經盡最大努力闡明瞭如何將 SAM 增加到 5 奈米，至於 3 奈米的整合方案，我們將拭​​目以待，然後再回答這個問題。除此之外，該公司還在進行一系列非常具體的投資，你可能已經公開看到其中一項或兩項投資，但我現在就選一項來談談，那就是先進設備製程控制領域。因此，我們明確了我們為實現過程控制、提高可重複性、提高一致性等目標而製定的漸進式 SAM。這也直接關係到公司在晶圓代工和微處理器領域的機會。我不打算透露細節，但除了過去幾年我們一直在討論的轉折點之外，我們還有 3 到 4 個非常重要的 SAM 擴展目標。顯然，這些都已納入我們幾週前提出的長期財務模型中。

Great. And Doug, as a follow-up, I know you probably won't say that visibility has significantly increased, but just based on customer projects and the timing of them, it seems like the equipment industry as a whole is getting much better visibility than they've ever gotten. Your balance sheet metrics and the procurement and everything you've done seems to be reacting very well. What changes have you made that has allowed you to adjust to, I guess, maybe increased visibility as well as the higher demand levels?

偉大的。道格，作為後續問題，我知道你可能不會說可見性已經顯著提高，但僅從客戶專案及其時間表來看，設備行業整體的可見性似乎比以往任何時候都要好得多。你們的資產負債表指標、採購以及你們所做的一切似乎都進展得非常順利。為了適應更高的曝光度和更大的需求水平，你做出了哪些改變？

I mean all the technology inflections you've seen happened over the last several years. Patrick have required our customers to have very advanced conversations, so that's well in advance of when they need a certain capability because we need to develop the equipment, quite honesty. So I don't think that's new. It's been happening over the last several years, and it's enabled us to plan our company to be able to support where we're at today. So the conversation is very deep and rich when you're enabling the customers' road map in the way that we are.

我的意思是，你看到的過去幾年發生的所有技術變革。Patrick 要求我們的客戶進行非常深入的對話，這樣一來，在他們需要某種功能之前，我們就能提前做好充分的準備，因為我們需要開發相應的設備，說實話。所以我覺得這並不是什麼新鮮事。這種情況在過去幾年中一直在發生，這使我們能夠規劃公司，從而支持我們今天所取得的成就。因此，當我們以我們這種方式幫助客戶實現他們的路線圖時，對話就會變得非常深入和豐富。

Our next question comes from Craig Ellis with B. Riley FBR.

我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley FBR 的 Craig Ellis。

I just wanted to ask a question to get some longer-term context around full year shipment commentary. I think if I look back over the last 2 years, there have been years when we look for a half-on-half profile that would be down in the second half and yet the year played out and it wound up being up. So as you look at the risks on both sides, can you just recap the upside risk to that shipment outlook as well as the downside risk?

我只是想問一個問題，以便對全年出貨量做出更長期的展望。回顧過去兩年，有些年份我們預期下半年會下滑，但最終全年實際成長速度卻上升了。因此，在分析雙方風險時，您能否簡單概括一下該貨運前景的上行風險和下行風險？

I guess I am not sure what to say here. I mean at the end of the day, if you believe the statements that we're making around discipline and demand-led investments, then the kind of known commodities at this point in time relates to the capital intensity of any one technology node or any one kind of device architecture. So I don't think there's kind of too many risks or opportunities relative to people's understanding of kind of cost consequence of a DRAM transition or a 3D NAND transition. Individual customer plans, in the short term, can create artificial kind of disruption, I would say, in terms of WFE. In the long term, I don't think at all because if one customer decreases, another one likely increases. If one increases, another one slightly decreases. So you kind of see kind of customer risks and opportunities. And if your window of focus is a quarter, then that will be disruptive to you. If your window of focus is a year, it's irrelevant because it's a dynamic kind of marketplace. I do think -- and I would extend the customer conversation into a regional conversation, something like China, right? I mean I think our hypothesis still remains that with any region of the world, including China, that the investment will be demand-based and rational. So I do think where there is still a significant amount of variability in plans is kind of how people choose to go execute. And you can change the WFE investment profile quite materially through the choices you make around new capacity additions versus playing that to 3D transition versus 3D transitions scaling versus maybe modifying a DRAM line to a flash line or vice versa, so -- and maybe even reuse strategies. And that all sounds maybe quite transactional, but it can have a fairly significant impact. So we do our best to try and dialogue with customers to understand where they're going to head. I would say the simplest headline to your answer is, if demand is stronger or weaker, it has the -- for ICs associated with these AI transitions and value propositions of a data economy, whether you'll see it in the calendar year is debatable, but you'll see it over a couple of year period in a positive or negative direction. And the rest of it, I think, is more operational execution as customers try to optimize their fabs, their line layouts and they try to optimize their use of cash.

我不太確定該說些什麼。我的意思是，歸根結底，如果你相信我們關於紀律和需求驅動型投資的說法，那麼目前已知的商品類型與任何單一技術節點或任何一種設備架構的資本密集度有關。所以我認為，相對於人們對DRAM過渡或3D NAND過渡的成本後果的理解而言，並沒有太多的風險或機會。就 WFE 而言，我認為，短期內，個別客戶計畫可能會造成人為的混亂。從長遠來看，我完全不這麼認為，因為如果一個客戶減少，另一個客戶很可能會增加。如果其中一個增加，另一個就會稍微減少。所以你就能大致了解客戶面臨的風險和機會。如果你的注意力只能集中在一個季度，那麼這會對你造成乾擾。如果你的關注窗口期只有一年，那就無關緊要了，因為這是一個動態的市場。我確實認為——而且我會將客戶對話擴展到區域對話，例如中國，對吧？我的意思是，我認為我們的假設仍然是，無論在世界哪個地區，包括中國，投資都將是基於需求的理性行為。所以我認為，計劃中仍然存在很大差異的地方在於人們選擇如何執行。您可以透過圍繞新增產能、3D 過渡、3D 過渡擴展、將 DRAM 生產線改造為快閃生產線或反之亦然等選擇，對 WFE 投資概況進行相當大的改變——甚至可能包括重用策略。這一切聽起來可能只是交易性的，但它卻能產生相當大的影響。因此，我們會盡力與客戶溝通，並了解他們的需求方向。我認為對你的回答最簡單的概括是，如果需求增強或減弱，那麼對於與人工智慧轉型和數據經濟價值主張相關的集成電路而言，是否能在今年內看到這種變化尚有爭議，但你會在幾年內看到它朝著積極或消極的方向發展。我認為，其餘部分更多的是營運執行方面的問題，因為客戶會嘗試優化他們的晶圓廠、生產線佈局，並嘗試優化他們的現金使用。

And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back to our presenters for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議交還給各位演講者，讓他們再作補充或總結發言。

That's all the time we have for the call today. Thank you for joining us.

今天通話時間就到此為止了。感謝您的參與。

That does conclude today's presentation. We thank you for your participation.

今天的演講到此結束。感謝您的參與。